{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Forest", "away_team": "Coventry", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260919", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1218, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Forest", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2669, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1218 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1264 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0905 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0887 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0861 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0861, "0-1": 0.0858, "0-2": 0.0443, "0-3": 0.0151, "0-4": 0.0038, "0-5": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.1218, "1-1": 0.1264, "1-2": 0.0639, "1-3": 0.0217, "1-4": 0.0055, "1-5": 0.0011, "2-0": 0.0887, "2-1": 0.0905, "2-2": 0.0462, "2-3": 0.0157, "2-4": 0.004, "2-5": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.0427, "3-1": 0.0436, "3-2": 0.0222, "3-3": 0.0076, "3-4": 0.0019, "4-0": 0.0154, "4-1": 0.0157, "4-2": 0.008, "4-3": 0.0027, "4-4": 0.0007, "5-0": 0.0045, "5-1": 0.0045, "5-2": 0.0023, "5-3": 0.0008, "6-0": 0.0011, "6-1": 0.0011, "6-2": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4674, "draw": 0.2669, "away_win": 0.2656 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4469, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5531, "btts_yes": 0.4896, "btts_no": 0.5104, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.236 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.76, "MCR": 7.37, "ATR": 6.99, "GK": 6.8 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.92, "MCR": 7.05, "ATR": 7.1, "GK": 7.44 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Forest vs Coventry. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Igor Jesus", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Morgan Gibbs-White vs Jack Rudoni will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.84, Away: 0.58. Home danger zone: LW vs CB. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense." }, "confidence": 0.58, "home_lambda": 1.444, "away_lambda": 1.02, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1264, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4674, "draw": 0.2669, "away_win": 0.2656 }, "favorite": "Forest", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4674, "fair_spread": 0.424, "fair_total": 2.464, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Forest", "estimate": 1.444, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Coventry", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4469, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4896, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Forest", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Coventry", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.236, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Igor Jesus (Forest)", "estimate": 0.4198, "probability": 0.2868, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Yann Gboho (Coventry)", "estimate": 0.2697, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Murillo (Forest)", "estimate": 0.0987, "probability": 0.0392, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jack Rudoni (Coventry)", "estimate": 0.1339, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.464, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 535, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.0, "possession_home_pct": 51.7, "possession_away_pct": 48.3, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Forest", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4674, "script": "Forest is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.42 goals and fair total 2.46.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Coventry must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Forest lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Forest chance creation leans on Igor Jesus against Milan van Ewijk in LW vs CB; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Forest: starters carry the main goal usage through Igor Jesus; bench watchlist: Daniel Muñoz, Chris Wood.", "Coventry: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Brandon Thomas-Asante, Victor Torp, Ellis Simms.", "Assist usage should flow through Morgan Gibbs-White; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Forest tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.23 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Coventry is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Forest.", "Coventry wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Forest": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "John Victor": { "player_id": 840103, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 197, "market_value": 4900000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.47, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "expected_saves": 1.22, "high_pressure_saves": 0.46, "shots_faced": 2.6, "opponent_faced": "Sidiki Cherif, Haji Wright", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4785, "combined_rank_score": 2861.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 978.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.28, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 4745.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "John Victor", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jack McGlynn", "ranking": 4780 }, { "player_name": "Luka Lochoshvili", "ranking": 4781 }, { "player_name": "Jhon Solís", "ranking": 4782 }, { "player_name": "Jorge Ruvalcaba", "ranking": 4783 }, { "player_name": "Luca Langoni", "ranking": 4784 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Diego Luna", "ranking": 4786 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Navarro", "ranking": 4787 }, { "player_name": "Joaquín Muñoz", "ranking": 4788 }, { "player_name": "Odin Luraas Bjørtuft", "ranking": 4789 }, { "player_name": "Harry Milne", "ranking": 4790 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.4609, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Market-value baseline (€4,900,000) applied for position G (quality factor 0.46)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position G (quality 0.46)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.47, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4900000, "quality_factor": 0.4609 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { 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"sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "expected_saves": 1.22, "high_pressure_saves": 0.46, "shots_faced": 2.6, "opponent_faced": "Sidiki Cherif, Haji Wright", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Sidiki Cherif, Haji Wright", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.44 (squad xG sum 0.9556, xG scale 1.5111)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.47, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, 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"minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "expected_saves": 1.22, "high_pressure_saves": 0.46, "shots_faced": 2.6, "opponent_faced": "Sidiki Cherif, Haji Wright", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": 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"fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363639.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17.0, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668.0, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Forest", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Forest", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363638.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, 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"importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.6627, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0458 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0412 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0343 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0193 } ], "others": 0.0725, "total": 6.8138 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0286, quality 0.595)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.0086, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 33, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, 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"total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 58, "possession_lost": 9.5967, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0617, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 92.8, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -1.62 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0515, "history_matches": 3, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, 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0.39011240005493164, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6829, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1668 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0355 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0348 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0325 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0254 } ], "others": -0.0688, "total": 0.3901 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.664484977722168, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7136, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0782 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0601 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0529 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0456 } ], "others": 0.0308, "total": 6.6645 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0120, quality 0.540)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1669, "goal_rate": 0.2555, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0197, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7443, "minutes": 45, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 5.5659, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11500000, "quality_factor": 0.5399, "boost_factor": 1.012 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0247)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1669, "goal_rate": 0.2492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0197, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7443, "minutes": 45, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 5.5659, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 38.3, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -3.91 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0247, "history_matches": 2, "prior_reliability": 0.0533, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Coventry City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0619 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0309 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5349, "after": 0.5217 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2555, "after": 0.2492 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 25.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.34)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0477, "goal_rate": 0.0712, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0056, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7443, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.5893, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 38.3, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.342, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.7 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.7, "appearance_probability": 0.342 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0477, "goal_rate": 0.0712, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0056, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7443, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.5893, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 38.3, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.342, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.7 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 1.0855, xG scale 0.9397)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0448, "goal_rate": 0.0712, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0056, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7443, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.5893, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 38.3, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.342, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.7, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.226, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.02, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0855, "xg_scale": 0.9397, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0448, "goal_rate": 0.0712, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0056, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7443, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.5893, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "total_shots": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 38.3, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.342, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.7, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.226, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4696, "fifa_rank": 4748.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.96, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_passes": 319, "interceptions": 3, "tackles": 8, "avg_rating": 7.06, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.0 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 67000000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.866, "defenders": [ "Jack Rudoni" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.465, "xg_contribution": 0.187, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jack Rudoni", "role": "CM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.535 } ], "duel_analysis": "Morgan Gibbs-White (CM) is evenly matched against Jack Rudoni in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€67M vs €21M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.187 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Callum Hudson Odoi", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Jack Rudoni" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.429, "xg_contribution": 0.067, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jack Rudoni", "role": "CM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.571 } ], "duel_analysis": "Callum Hudson Odoi (CM) is evenly matched against Jack Rudoni in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.067 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Igor Jesus", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Milan van Ewijk" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.448, "xg_contribution": 0.2778, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Milan van Ewijk", "role": "CB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.552 } ], "duel_analysis": "Igor Jesus (LW) is evenly matched against Milan van Ewijk in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.278 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Liam Delap", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Milan van Ewijk", "Bobby Thomas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.627, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.248, "xg_contribution": 0.145, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Milan van Ewijk", "role": "CB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.752 }, { "player": "Bobby Thomas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.752 } ], "duel_analysis": "Liam Delap (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Milan van Ewijk and Bobby Thomas in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. Projected xG contribution: 0.145 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Arnaud Kalimuendo", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Milan van Ewijk" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.424, "xg_contribution": 0.1678, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Milan van Ewijk", "role": "CB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.576 } ], "duel_analysis": "Arnaud Kalimuendo (RW) is evenly matched against Milan van Ewijk in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.168 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Haji Wright", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 16600000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.596, "defenders": [ "Ousmane Diomande", "Nikola Milenković" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.743, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.185, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ousmane Diomande", "role": "CB", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Nikola Milenković", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Haji Wright (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ousmane Diomande and Nikola Milenković in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€17M vs €35M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.185 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Sidiki Cherif", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 16900000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.6, "defenders": [ "Ousmane Diomande", "Morgan Gibbs-White" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.833, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.205, "xg_contribution": 0.1962, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ousmane Diomande", "role": "CB", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.795 }, { "player": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "role": "CM", "market_value": 67000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.795 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sidiki Cherif (SS) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ousmane Diomande and Morgan Gibbs-White in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. The quality gap is significant (€17M vs €56M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.196 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 18700000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.618, "defenders": [ "Arnaud Kalimuendo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RW" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.445, "xg_contribution": 0.0765, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Arnaud Kalimuendo", "role": "RW", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.555 } ], "duel_analysis": "Caleb Yirenkyi (LWB) is evenly matched against Arnaud Kalimuendo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.076 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Gustavo Hamer", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 14700000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.576, "defenders": [ "Igor Jesus" ], "defender_roles": [ "LW" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.351, "xg_contribution": 0.0431, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Igor Jesus", "role": "LW", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.649 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gustavo Hamer (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Igor Jesus in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jack Rudoni", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White", "Dan Ndoye" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.796, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Mid + CDM Pressing Trap", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.21, "xg_contribution": 0.0786, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "role": "CM", "market_value": 67000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.79 }, { "player": "Dan Ndoye", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.79 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jack Rudoni (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Morgan Gibbs-White and Dan Ndoye in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €49M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.079 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.774, "away_midfield_power": 0.634, "home_creative_power": 0.658, "away_creative_power": 0.566, "home_defensive_power": 0.658, "away_defensive_power": 0.509, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.55, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White", "Callum Hudson Odoi", "Dan Ndoye" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Jack Rudoni", "Caleb Yirenkyi", "Ephron Mason-Clark", "Gustavo Hamer" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.0, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.4, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.9, "home_throughball_threat": 2.6, "away_throughball_threat": 2.3, "key_personal_duel": "Morgan Gibbs-White vs Jack Rudoni", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.02, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.984 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.06, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.06, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.444, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "LW vs CB", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Morgan Gibbs-White": { "opponents": [ "Jack Rudoni", "Sidiki Cherif", "Ephron Mason-Clark" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Callum Hudson Odoi": { "opponents": [ "Jack Rudoni", "Caleb Yirenkyi" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Igor Jesus": { "opponents": [ "Milan van Ewijk", "Gustavo Hamer" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel" }, "Liam Delap": { "opponents": [ "Milan van Ewijk", "Bobby Thomas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Arnaud Kalimuendo": { "opponents": [ "Milan van Ewijk", "Caleb Yirenkyi" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel" }, "Ousmane Diomande": { "opponents": [ "Haji Wright", "Sidiki Cherif" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nikola Milenković": { "opponents": [ "Haji Wright" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dan Ndoye": { "opponents": [ "Jack Rudoni", "Gustavo Hamer" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Mid + CDM Pressing Trap", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "John Victor": { "opponents": [ "Yann Gboho", "Sidiki Cherif" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Murillo": { "opponents": [ "Yann Gboho" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Neco Williams": { "opponents": [ "Haji Wright" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jack Rudoni": { "opponents": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White", "Callum Hudson Odoi", "Dan Ndoye" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Milan van Ewijk": { "opponents": [ "Igor Jesus", "Liam Delap", "Arnaud Kalimuendo" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Bobby Thomas": { "opponents": [ "Liam Delap" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Haji Wright": { "opponents": [ "Ousmane Diomande", "Nikola Milenković" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Sidiki Cherif": { "opponents": [ "Ousmane Diomande", "Morgan Gibbs-White" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Caleb Yirenkyi": { "opponents": [ "Arnaud Kalimuendo", "Callum Hudson Odoi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gustavo Hamer": { "opponents": [ "Igor Jesus", "Dan Ndoye" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ephron Mason-Clark": { "opponents": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Carl Rushworth": { "opponents": [ "Igor Jesus", "Liam Delap" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Aurèle Amenda": { "opponents": [ "Arnaud Kalimuendo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Yann Gboho": { "opponents": [ "Murillo", "Neco Williams" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Morgan Gibbs-White vs Jack Rudoni will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.84, Away: 0.58. Home danger zone: LW vs CB. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9503, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.001, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.138, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.169, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9632, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8956, "home_midfield_factor": 1.02, "away_midfield_factor": 0.984, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7356, "away_avg_quality": 0.601, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1345, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.6876, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.7801, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.4948, "elite_count_gap": 3, "combined_quality_gap": 0.253, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1391, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0809, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.058, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0592, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.444, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.875, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.444, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.8752, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.444, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 16, "opponent_position": 20, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.952, "attack_index": 0.833, "defense_concede_index": 1.041, "form_multiplier": 1.035, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 0.67, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 20, "opponent_position": 16, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0872, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.249, "form_multiplier": 0.965, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.5, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.67 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Forest vs Coventry. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-3-3 vs 3-4-2-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.444, Away 0.875). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.444, Away 1.020 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 10, "home_fbref_players": 0, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 8, "away_fbref_players": 7, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.444, "away_lambda": 1.02, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.444, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.875 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-19T13:31:32Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 95.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 8.0 } }