{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Newcastle", "away_team": "Hull", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260919", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0925, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Newcastle", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1616, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0925 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0923 }, { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.08 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0798 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0716 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0278, "0-1": 0.0272, "0-2": 0.0138, "0-3": 0.0046, "0-4": 0.0012, "1-0": 0.0709, "1-1": 0.0716, "1-2": 0.0357, "1-3": 0.0119, "1-4": 0.003, "1-5": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.0923, "2-1": 0.0925, "2-2": 0.0464, "2-3": 0.0155, "2-4": 0.0039, "2-5": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.0798, "3-1": 0.08, "3-2": 0.0401, "3-3": 0.0134, "3-4": 0.0034, "3-5": 0.0007, "4-0": 0.0518, "4-1": 0.0519, "4-2": 0.026, "4-3": 0.0087, "4-4": 0.0022, "5-0": 0.0269, "5-1": 0.0269, "5-2": 0.0135, "5-3": 0.0045, "5-4": 0.0011, "6-0": 0.0116, "6-1": 0.0116, "6-2": 0.0058, "6-3": 0.0019, "7-0": 0.0043, "7-1": 0.0043, "7-2": 0.0022, "7-3": 0.0007, "8-0": 0.0014, "8-1": 0.0014, "8-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.7151, "draw": 0.1616, "away_win": 0.1234 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6964, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3036, "btts_yes": 0.5859, "btts_no": 0.4141, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3671, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0747 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.01, "MCR": 7.41, "ATR": 7.36, "GK": 7.17 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.74, "MCR": 7.02, "ATR": 6.42, "GK": 7.51 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Newcastle vs Hull. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Harvey Barnes, Anthony Elanga, Robinio Vaz", "tactical_analysis": "4-3-3 creates structural superiority against 3-5-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Midfield is evenly contested — Bazoumana Touré vs Christos Mouzakitis will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.86, Away: 0.48. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.65, "home_lambda": 2.594, "away_lambda": 1.002, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.7151, "draw": 0.1616, "away_win": 0.1234 }, "favorite": "Newcastle", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7151, "fair_spread": 1.592, "fair_total": 3.596, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Newcastle", "estimate": 2.594, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Hull", "estimate": 1.002, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6964, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5859, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Newcastle", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3671, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Hull", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0747, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Anthony Elanga (Newcastle)", "estimate": 0.8823, "probability": 0.5629, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Robinio Vaz (Hull)", "estimate": 0.2028, "probability": 0.3789, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Lewis Hall (Newcastle)", "estimate": 0.2378, "probability": 0.0959, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Christos Mouzakitis (Hull)", "estimate": 0.181, "probability": 0.2427, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.596, "expected_total_shots": 19, "expected_total_passes": 643, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.0, "possession_home_pct": 51.7, "possession_away_pct": 48.3, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Newcastle", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7151, "script": "Newcastle is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.59 goals and fair total 3.60.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Hull must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Newcastle lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Newcastle chance creation leans on Anthony Elanga against Brooke Norton-Cuffy in Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Newcastle: starters carry the main goal usage through Harvey Barnes, Anthony Elanga; bench watchlist: Nick Woltemade, Joelinton, William Osula.", "Hull: starters carry the main goal usage through Robinio Vaz; bench watchlist: Ilyas Ansah, Jens Hjertø-Dahl, Oli McBurnie.", "Assist usage should flow through Nico González, Christos Mouzakitis; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Newcastle tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 1.80 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Hull is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Newcastle.", "Hull wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Newcastle": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Lukáš Horníček": { "player_id": 963744, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 194, "market_value": 16900000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.1722, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 18, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 47, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 4, "possession_lost": 15.108, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "expected_saves": 1.01, "high_pressure_saves": 0.39, "shots_faced": 2.2, "opponent_faced": "Robinio Vaz, Christos Mouzakitis", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363644.0, "match_date": "2026-09-14 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17.0, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668.0, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Leeds", "away_team": "Newcastle", "home_score_current": 4.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Newcastle", "opponent": "Leeds", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363637.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.0004 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363256.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.906 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363246.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0036, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 22, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.9684 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1917, "combined_rank_score": 743.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 52.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.7, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1434.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.1722, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lukáš Horníček", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Juan Fuentes", "ranking": 1912 }, { "player_name": "Corey Hollman", "ranking": 1913 }, { "player_name": "Elia Caprile", "ranking": 1914 }, { "player_name": "Lee Taek-Geun", "ranking": 1915 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Augusto", "ranking": 1916 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Francisco Conceição", "ranking": 1918 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Svensson", "ranking": 1919 }, { "player_name": "Víctor Campuzano", "ranking": 1920 }, { "player_name": "Javier Altamirano", "ranking": 1921 }, { "player_name": "Kim Beom-Su", "ranking": 1922 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0299, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 3 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.9643, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 18, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 45, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 4, "possession_lost": 14.67, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.7191, "touches": 45.2575, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 20.6152, "punches": 0.9417, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8782, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.3304 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.1078343391418457, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9806, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.3338 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.1225 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": -0.0698 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.053 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0435 } ], "others": -0.0238, "total": 3.1078 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.0, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0536, "items": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0495 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.049 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0457 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0383 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0379 } ], "others": 0.037, "total": -0.1456 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.964253902435303, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0716, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.1061 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0883 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0528 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.048 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0372 } ], "others": -0.0509, "total": 6.9643 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0299, quality 0.600)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.1722, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 18, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 47, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 4, "possession_lost": 15.108, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16900000, "quality_factor": 0.5995, "boost_factor": 1.0299 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.1722, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 18, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 47, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 4, "possession_lost": 15.108, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.1722, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 18, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 47, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 4, "possession_lost": 15.108, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "expected_saves": 1.01, "high_pressure_saves": 0.39, "shots_faced": 2.2, "opponent_faced": "Robinio Vaz, Christos Mouzakitis", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Robinio Vaz, Christos Mouzakitis", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping 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"assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.594, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0516, "xg_scale": 2.4667, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.1722, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 18, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 47, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 4, "possession_lost": 15.108, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "expected_saves": 1.01, "high_pressure_saves": 0.39, "shots_faced": 2.2, "opponent_faced": "Robinio Vaz, Christos Mouzakitis", 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"96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5877, "combined_rank_score": 4129.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 8108.0, "fifa_overall": 68.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.4956, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jens Hjertø-Dahl", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Paul Joly", "ranking": 5872 }, { "player_name": "Mathieu Choinière", "ranking": 5873 }, { "player_name": "Martijn Kaars", "ranking": 5874 }, { "player_name": "Maurice Neubauer", "ranking": 5875 }, { "player_name": "Muhammed Damar", "ranking": 5876 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Christ Ravynel Inao Oulaï", "ranking": 5878 }, { "player_name": "Juan Rodríguez", "ranking": 5879 }, { "player_name": "Alfred Duncan", "ranking": 5880 }, { "player_name": "Patrick Ciurria", "ranking": 5881 }, { "player_name": "Hassane Kamara", "ranking": 5882 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", 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empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 5 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0348, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0257, "rating": 6.4612, "minutes": 8, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 1.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:48.236605+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 11.25, "ballRecovery": 1.0, "intensity_index": 1.0305, "expectedAssists": 0.0, "kilometersCovered": 1.7683 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5427451729774475, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9691, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.238 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0678 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.051 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0248 } ], "others": -0.0731, "total": 0.5427 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.034790560603141785, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0929, "items": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.006 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0037 } ], "others": -0.0147, "total": 0.0348 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07155492156744003, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0956, "items": [ { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0023 } ], "others": -0.007, "total": 0.0716 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.025689661502838135, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1087, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0321 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0058 } ], "others": -0.0134, "total": 0.0257 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.46115779876709, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8318, "items": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.1222 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.1129 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0946 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0535 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.0481 } ], "others": -0.0355, "total": 6.4612 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0053, quality 0.518)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.035, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "rating": 6.4956, "minutes": 8, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, 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0, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0064, "rating": 6.4956, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.249, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.00 (squad xG sum 0.9397, xG scale 1.0663)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0068, "rating": 6.4956, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.249, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.29, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.571, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.002, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9397, "xg_scale": 1.0663, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11, fifa_overall 68.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0068, "rating": 6.4956, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.249, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.29, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.571, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5877, "fifa_rank": 8108.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.0, "expected_assists": 0.79, "total_shots": 9, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 329, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 9, "avg_rating": 6.88, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.0 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Harvey Barnes", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 35000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.752, "defenders": [ "Sorba Thomas" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.574, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.504, "xg_contribution": 0.288, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sorba Thomas", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 14500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.496 } ], "duel_analysis": "Harvey Barnes (LW) is slightly favored against Sorba Thomas in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€35M vs €14M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.288 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Anthony Elanga", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Brooke Norton-Cuffy" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.585, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.491, "xg_contribution": 0.3577, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Brooke Norton-Cuffy", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.509 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anthony Elanga (RW) is evenly matched against Brooke Norton-Cuffy in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. The quality gap is significant (€31M vs €16M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.358 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Matías Fernández-Pardo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 38000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.77, "defenders": [ "Charlie Hughes", "Lucas Herrington", "Ryan Giles" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.518, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "numerical_situation": "1v3", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1294, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Charlie Hughes", "role": "CB", "market_value": 9100000, "tackles_attempted": 0.7, "tackles_won": 0.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Lucas Herrington", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8800000, "tackles_attempted": 0.7, "tackles_won": 0.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Ryan Giles", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10900000, "tackles_attempted": 0.7, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matías Fernández-Pardo (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Charlie Hughes and Lucas Herrington and Ryan Giles in a 3-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€38M vs €10M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.129 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Bazoumana Touré", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 48000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.817, "defenders": [ "Christos Mouzakitis" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.467, "xg_contribution": 0.0851, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Christos Mouzakitis", "role": "CM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.533 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bazoumana Touré (CM) is evenly matched against Christos Mouzakitis in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€48M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.085 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Robinio Vaz", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 18700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.618, "defenders": [ "Tino Livramento", "Sven Botman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.77, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1902, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tino Livramento", "role": "CB", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Sven Botman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Robinio Vaz (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Tino Livramento and Sven Botman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€19M vs €38M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.190 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Brooke Norton-Cuffy", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 15500000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.585, "defenders": [ "Anthony Elanga", "Lewis Hall" ], "defender_roles": [ "RW", "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.747, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.052, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Anthony Elanga", "role": "RW", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Lewis Hall", "role": "RB", "market_value": 38000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brooke Norton-Cuffy (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Anthony Elanga and Lewis Hall in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €34M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.052 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Sorba Thomas", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 14500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.574, "defenders": [ "Harvey Barnes", "Malick Thiaw" ], "defender_roles": [ "LW", "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.769, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0434, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Harvey Barnes", "role": "LW", "market_value": 35000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Malick Thiaw", "role": "LB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sorba Thomas (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Harvey Barnes and Malick Thiaw in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€14M vs €38M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Christos Mouzakitis", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Bazoumana Touré" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.373, "xg_contribution": 0.1077, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bazoumana Touré", "role": "CM", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.627 } ], "duel_analysis": "Christos Mouzakitis (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Bazoumana Touré in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €48M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.108 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Joe Gelhardt", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 15000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.579, "defenders": [ "Jacob Ramsey" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.758, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.335, "xg_contribution": 0.0882, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jacob Ramsey", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.665 } ], "duel_analysis": "Joe Gelhardt (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Jacob Ramsey in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€15M vs €36M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.088 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.79, "away_midfield_power": 0.658, "home_creative_power": 0.672, "away_creative_power": 0.593, "home_defensive_power": 0.672, "away_defensive_power": 0.503, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.546, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Bazoumana Touré", "Nico González", "Jacob Ramsey" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Christos Mouzakitis", "Tim Iroegbunam", "Brooke Norton-Cuffy", "Joe Gelhardt", "Sorba Thomas" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.0, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.1, "home_throughball_threat": 2.6, "away_throughball_threat": 2.4, "key_personal_duel": "Bazoumana Touré vs Christos Mouzakitis", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.02, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.986 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.08, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "4-3-3 creates structural superiority against 3-5-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition." }, "home_lambda": 2.594, "away_lambda": 1.002, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Harvey Barnes": { "opponents": [ "Sorba Thomas" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel" }, "Anthony Elanga": { "opponents": [ "Brooke Norton-Cuffy" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel" }, "Matías Fernández-Pardo": { "opponents": [ "Charlie Hughes", "Lucas Herrington", "Ryan Giles" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bazoumana Touré": { "opponents": [ "Christos Mouzakitis", "Sorba Thomas" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tino Livramento": { "opponents": [ "Robinio Vaz" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Sven Botman": { "opponents": [ "Robinio Vaz" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lewis Hall": { "opponents": [ "Brooke Norton-Cuffy" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Malick Thiaw": { "opponents": [ "Sorba Thomas" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jacob Ramsey": { "opponents": [ "Joe Gelhardt", "Brooke Norton-Cuffy" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nico González": { "opponents": [ "Tim Iroegbunam" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Lukáš Horníček": { "opponents": [ "Mohamed Ali Cho", "Robinio Vaz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Sorba Thomas": { "opponents": [ "Harvey Barnes", "Malick Thiaw", "Bazoumana Touré" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Brooke Norton-Cuffy": { "opponents": [ "Anthony Elanga", "Lewis Hall", "Jacob Ramsey" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Charlie Hughes": { "opponents": [ "Matías Fernández-Pardo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lucas Herrington": { "opponents": [ "Matías Fernández-Pardo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ryan Giles": { "opponents": [ "Matías Fernández-Pardo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Christos Mouzakitis": { "opponents": [ "Bazoumana Touré" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Robinio Vaz": { "opponents": [ "Tino Livramento", "Sven Botman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Joe Gelhardt": { "opponents": [ "Jacob Ramsey" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tim Iroegbunam": { "opponents": [ "Nico González" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Konstantinos Tzolakis": { "opponents": [ "Harvey Barnes", "Anthony Elanga" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Mohamed Ali Cho": { "opponents": [ "Tino Livramento", "Malick Thiaw" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Bazoumana Touré vs Christos Mouzakitis will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.86, Away: 0.48. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9429, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9442, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1557, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0709, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9889, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8869, "home_midfield_factor": 1.02, "away_midfield_factor": 0.986, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7712, "away_avg_quality": 0.5784, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1928, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.8994, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.7701, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.5967, "elite_count_gap": 4, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3381, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.186, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1082, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.08, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0913, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Newcastle United", "away_squad": "Hull City", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_per90": 1.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.222, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.222, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.3381, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0895, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9762, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 2.381, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.026, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.3812, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.0256, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 2.594, "final_away_lambda": 1.002 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 7, "opponent_position": 3, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.4576, "attack_index": 2.499, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 0.965, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 3.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 1.67, "opponent_ppg": 2.33 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 3, "opponent_position": 7, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0231, "attack_index": 0.625, "defense_concede_index": 1.666, "form_multiplier": 1.035, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.75, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.0, "team_ppg": 2.33, "opponent_ppg": 1.67 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Newcastle vs Hull. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-3-3 vs 3-5-2 (duel lambdas: Home 2.381, Away 1.026). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 2.594, Away 1.002 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 0, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 7, "away_fbref_players": 3, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Newcastle United", "away_squad": "Hull City", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_per90": 1.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.222, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.222, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 2.594, "away_lambda": 1.002, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 2.381, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.026 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-19T13:30:59Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 95.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 8.0 } }