{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Ipswich", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260919", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0903, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Everton", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.164, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0903 }, { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0799 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.079 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0699 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0684 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0227, "0-1": 0.0253, "0-2": 0.0147, "0-3": 0.0056, "0-4": 0.0016, "1-0": 0.0592, "1-1": 0.0684, "1-2": 0.0389, "1-3": 0.0148, "1-4": 0.0042, "1-5": 0.001, "2-0": 0.079, "2-1": 0.0903, "2-2": 0.0517, "2-3": 0.0197, "2-4": 0.0056, "2-5": 0.0013, "3-0": 0.0699, "3-1": 0.0799, "3-2": 0.0457, "3-3": 0.0174, "3-4": 0.005, "3-5": 0.0011, "4-0": 0.0464, "4-1": 0.0531, "4-2": 0.0304, "4-3": 0.0116, "4-4": 0.0033, "4-5": 0.0008, "5-0": 0.0246, "5-1": 0.0282, "5-2": 0.0161, "5-3": 0.0061, "5-4": 0.0018, "6-0": 0.0109, "6-1": 0.0125, "6-2": 0.0071, "6-3": 0.0027, "6-4": 0.0008, "7-0": 0.0041, "7-1": 0.0047, "7-2": 0.0027, "7-3": 0.001, "8-0": 0.0014, "8-1": 0.0016, "8-2": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.6949, "draw": 0.164, "away_win": 0.1411 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.7308, "under_2_5_goals": 0.2692, "btts_yes": 0.6339, "btts_no": 0.3661, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3185, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0703 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.09, "MCR": 7.41, "ATR": 7.18, "GK": 6.94 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.8, "MCR": 7.15, "ATR": 6.98, "GK": 7.24 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Everton vs Ipswich. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Brennan Johnson, Thierno Barry, Anis Mehmeti", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — James Garner vs Exequiel Palacios will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.15, Away: 0.73. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: LWB vs RWB." }, "confidence": 0.65, "home_lambda": 2.655, "away_lambda": 1.144, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.6949, "draw": 0.164, "away_win": 0.1411 }, "favorite": "Everton", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6949, "fair_spread": 1.511, "fair_total": 3.799, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Everton", "estimate": 2.655, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Ipswich", "estimate": 1.144, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.7308, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6339, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Everton", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3185, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Ipswich", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0703, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Thierno Barry (Everton)", "estimate": 0.6251, "probability": 0.4748, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Julio Enciso (Ipswich)", "estimate": 0.2621, "probability": 0.092, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Tyrique George (Everton)", "estimate": 0.1591, "probability": 0.1199, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace (Ipswich)", "estimate": 0.166, "probability": 0.2583, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.799, "expected_total_shots": 29, "expected_total_passes": 694, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.4, "possession_home_pct": 50.5, "possession_away_pct": 49.5, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Everton", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6949, "script": "Everton is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.51 goals and fair total 3.80.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Ipswich must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Everton lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Everton chance creation leans on Thierno Barry against Dara O'Shea, Jacob Greaves in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Everton: starters carry the main goal usage through Brennan Johnson, Thierno Barry; bench watchlist: Beto, Tim Iroegbunam, Braiden Graham.", "Ipswich: starters carry the main goal usage through Anis Mehmeti; bench watchlist: Sindre Walle Egeli, Florentino Luís, Zian Flemming.", "Assist usage should flow through Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Jaden Philogene-Bidace; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Everton tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.90 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Ipswich is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Everton.", "Ipswich wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Everton": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Jordan Pickford": { "player_id": 138530, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 185, "market_value": 13900000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.9436, "minutes": 92, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 20, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 48, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 12, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 14.6184, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0.5, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 4.5, "cleanSheets": 0.5, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 88.9, "cleanSheetPct": 50.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.0, "expected_saves": 1.53, "high_pressure_saves": 0.58, "shots_faced": 3.3, "opponent_faced": "Julio Enciso, Anis Mehmeti", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363647.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12 16:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17.0, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668.0, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Tottenham", "away_team": "Everton", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Tottenham", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363259.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 31, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -1.067 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363247.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.8975 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 21, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.9406 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 96, "combined_rank_score": 93.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 49.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.75, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 137.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.9436, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jordan Pickford", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Abduvokhid Nematov", "ranking": 91 }, { "player_name": "Ignacio Suárez", "ranking": 92 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Dotor", "ranking": 93 }, { "player_name": "Cristhian Martínez", "ranking": 94 }, { "player_name": "Luka Stankovski", "ranking": 95 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Luke Brattan", "ranking": 97 }, { "player_name": "Moisés Caicedo", "ranking": 98 }, { "player_name": "Danrlei", "ranking": 99 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Guimarães", "ranking": 100 }, { "player_name": "Sandro Tonali", "ranking": 101 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.457, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0201, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Everton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Everton, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.8067, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 20, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 47, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 12, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 14.33, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 8.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.6113, "touches": 47.1506, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 20.0622, "punches": 0.9913, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9316, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.6113 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8729660511016846, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9806, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.1177 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0696 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0486 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0437 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0339 } ], "others": 0.1381, "total": 2.873 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.0, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0536, "items": [ { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0632 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0435 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.0376 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0343 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0322 } ], "others": 0.0793, "total": -0.0337 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.806657314300537, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0716, "items": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.1057 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0965 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0735 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0366 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0221 } ], "others": -0.0037, "total": 6.8067 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0201, quality 0.567)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.9436, "minutes": 92, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 20, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 48, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 12, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 14.6184, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13900000, "quality_factor": 0.5671, "boost_factor": 1.0201 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended 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"total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.2806, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.02, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.017, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.56, "appearance_probability": 0.525 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "expected_goals": 0.0256, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.2806, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.02, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.017, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.14 (squad xG sum 0.9274, xG scale 1.2336)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "expected_goals": 0.0316, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.2806, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.02, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.017, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.571, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.144, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9274, "xg_scale": 1.2336, "scoreline_reset": true }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0256, "after": 0.0316 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "expected_goals": 0.0316, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 2.2806, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.02, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.017, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.571, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1822, "fifa_rank": 725.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.14, "expected_assists": 0.85, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 357, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 7.03, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Hayden Hackney", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 35000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.752, "defenders": [ "Jack Clarke" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.458, "xg_contribution": 0.0598, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jack Clarke", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.542 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hayden Hackney (LWB) is evenly matched against Jack Clarke in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.060 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "James Garner", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 48000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.817, "defenders": [ "Jaden Philogene-Bidace" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.619, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.543, "xg_contribution": 0.0571, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 18800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.457 } ], "duel_analysis": "James Garner (CM) is slightly favored against Jaden Philogene-Bidace in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. The quality gap is significant (€48M vs €19M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.057 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 38000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.77, "defenders": [ "Jaden Philogene-Bidace" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.619, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.506, "xg_contribution": 0.1963, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 18800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.494 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (CM) is slightly favored against Jaden Philogene-Bidace in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€38M vs €19M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.196 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Jack Grealish", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Julio Enciso" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.436, "xg_contribution": 0.0655, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Julio Enciso", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.564 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jack Grealish (RWB) is evenly matched against Julio Enciso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.065 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Brennan Johnson", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Dara O'Shea" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.601, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.501, "xg_contribution": 0.2269, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dara O'Shea", "role": "CB", "market_value": 17000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.499 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brennan Johnson (SS) is slightly favored against Dara O'Shea in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Projected xG contribution: 0.227 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Tyrique George", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Dara O'Shea" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.601, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.44, "xg_contribution": 0.2556, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dara O'Shea", "role": "CB", "market_value": 17000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.56 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tyrique George (SS) is evenly matched against Dara O'Shea in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.256 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Thierno Barry", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Dara O'Shea", "Jacob Greaves" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.581, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.283, "xg_contribution": 0.291, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dara O'Shea", "role": "CB", "market_value": 17000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.717 }, { "player": "Jacob Greaves", "role": "CB", "market_value": 13400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.717 } ], "duel_analysis": "Thierno Barry (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dara O'Shea and Jacob Greaves in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€31M vs €15M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.291 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Julio Enciso", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Jack Grealish" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.404, "xg_contribution": 0.2071, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jack Grealish", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.596 } ], "duel_analysis": "Julio Enciso (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Jack Grealish in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.207 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Exequiel Palacios", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "James Garner" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.341, "xg_contribution": 0.0383, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Garner", "role": "CM", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.659 } ], "duel_analysis": "Exequiel Palacios (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against James Garner in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €48M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.038 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "James Garner" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.333, "xg_contribution": 0.0841, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Garner", "role": "CM", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.667 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against James Garner in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €48M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.084 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jack Clarke", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Hayden Hackney" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.752, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.382, "xg_contribution": 0.0675, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Hayden Hackney", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 35000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.618 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jack Clarke (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Hayden Hackney in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.068 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Anis Mehmeti", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 14600000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.575, "defenders": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite", "Vitaliy Mykolenko" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.736, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1792, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anis Mehmeti (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jarrad Branthwaite and Vitaliy Mykolenko in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€15M vs €34M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.179 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Daizen Maeda", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 12600000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.552, "defenders": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite", "Vitaliy Mykolenko" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.736, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1536, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daizen Maeda (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jarrad Branthwaite and Vitaliy Mykolenko in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€13M vs €34M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.154 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.77, "away_midfield_power": 0.701, "home_creative_power": 0.691, "away_creative_power": 0.592, "home_defensive_power": 0.626, "away_defensive_power": 0.612, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.523, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "James Garner", "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "Hayden Hackney", "Jack Grealish" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Exequiel Palacios", "Julio Enciso", "Jack Clarke", "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "Jaden Philogene-Bidace" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.1, "home_throughball_threat": 2.7, "away_throughball_threat": 2.4, "key_personal_duel": "James Garner vs Exequiel Palacios", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.009, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.993 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.02, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.02, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.655, "away_lambda": 1.144, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "LWB vs RWB", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Hayden Hackney": { "opponents": [ "Jack Clarke", "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "James Garner": { "opponents": [ "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "Exequiel Palacios", "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "Jack Clarke" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall": { "opponents": [ "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "Exequiel Palacios" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jack Grealish": { "opponents": [ "Julio Enciso" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Brennan Johnson": { "opponents": [ "Dara O'Shea" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Tyrique George": { "opponents": [ "Dara O'Shea" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Thierno Barry": { "opponents": [ "Dara O'Shea", "Jacob Greaves" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jarrad Branthwaite": { "opponents": [ "Anis Mehmeti", "Daizen Maeda" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Vitaliy Mykolenko": { "opponents": [ "Anis Mehmeti", "Daizen Maeda" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jordan Pickford": { "opponents": [ "Anis Mehmeti", "Daizen Maeda" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jake O'Brien": { "opponents": [ "Anis Mehmeti" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jack Clarke": { "opponents": [ "Hayden Hackney", "James Garner" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jaden Philogene-Bidace": { "opponents": [ "James Garner", "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Julio Enciso": { "opponents": [ "Jack Grealish" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dara O'Shea": { "opponents": [ "Brennan Johnson", "Tyrique George", "Thierno Barry" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jacob Greaves": { "opponents": [ "Thierno Barry" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Exequiel Palacios": { "opponents": [ "James Garner", "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku": { "opponents": [ "James Garner", "Hayden Hackney" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Anis Mehmeti": { "opponents": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite", "Vitaliy Mykolenko" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Daizen Maeda": { "opponents": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite", "Vitaliy Mykolenko" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kjell Scherpen": { "opponents": [ "Brennan Johnson", "Tyrique George" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Leif Davis": { "opponents": [ "Brennan Johnson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — James Garner vs Exequiel Palacios will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.15, Away: 0.73. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: LWB vs RWB.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.987, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9575, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.097, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9557, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9207, "home_midfield_factor": 1.009, "away_midfield_factor": 0.993, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7144, "away_avg_quality": 0.6185, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0959, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.4714, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.5059, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.4666, "elite_count_gap": 2, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1799, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0989, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0576, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0814, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0541, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Everton", "away_squad": "Ipswich Town", "home_goals_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.222, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.222, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.6546, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.1443, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 2.655, "final_away_lambda": 1.144 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 8, "opponent_position": 13, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.647, "attack_index": 2.082, "defense_concede_index": 1.666, "form_multiplier": 1.035, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.0, "team_ppg": 1.67, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 13, "opponent_position": 8, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0091, "attack_index": 0.833, "defense_concede_index": 1.249, "form_multiplier": 0.965, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.5, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.67 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Everton vs Ipswich. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-4-2-1 vs 3-5-2 (duel lambdas: Home 2.655, Away 1.144). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 2.655, Away 1.144 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 10, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 9, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Everton", "away_squad": "Ipswich Town", "home_goals_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.222, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.222, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 2.655, "away_lambda": 1.144, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 2.655, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.144 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-19T13:30:38Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 95.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 8.0 } }