{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260919", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1158, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Rayo Vallecano", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2832, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1158 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.133 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1074 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0979 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0798 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0979, "0-1": 0.1158, "0-2": 0.071, "0-3": 0.0287, "0-4": 0.0087, "0-5": 0.0021, "1-0": 0.1074, "1-1": 0.133, "1-2": 0.0798, "1-3": 0.0323, "1-4": 0.0098, "1-5": 0.0024, "2-0": 0.0611, "2-1": 0.0741, "2-2": 0.0449, "2-3": 0.0181, "2-4": 0.0055, "2-5": 0.0013, "3-0": 0.0229, "3-1": 0.0278, "3-2": 0.0168, "3-3": 0.0068, "3-4": 0.0021, "4-0": 0.0064, "4-1": 0.0078, "4-2": 0.0047, "4-3": 0.0019, "4-4": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.0015, "5-1": 0.0018, "5-2": 0.0011 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3371, "draw": 0.2832, "away_win": 0.3797 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4137, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5863, "btts_yes": 0.4756, "btts_no": 0.5244, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2976, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3247 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.63, "MCR": 6.8, "ATR": 6.58, "GK": 6.67 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.76, "MCR": 6.68, "ATR": 7.06, "GK": 6.76 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Sergio Camello", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Jon Moncayola vs Isi Palazón will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.37, Away: 0.73. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.56, "home_lambda": 1.125, "away_lambda": 1.212, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.133, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3371, "draw": 0.2832, "away_win": 0.3797 }, "favorite": "Rayo Vallecano", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3797, "fair_spread": -0.087, "fair_total": 2.337, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Osasuna", "estimate": 1.125, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Rayo Vallecano", "estimate": 1.212, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4137, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4756, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Osasuna", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2976, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Rayo Vallecano", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3247, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Raúl García de Haro (Osasuna)", "estimate": 0.2205, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Sergio Camello (Rayo Vallecano)", "estimate": 0.3055, "probability": 0.4523, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Romain Del Castillo (Osasuna)", "estimate": 0.135, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Pedro Díaz (Rayo Vallecano)", "estimate": 0.083, "probability": 0.2044, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.337, "expected_total_shots": 28, "expected_total_passes": 530, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.3, "possession_home_pct": 51.0, "possession_away_pct": 49.0, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Rayo Vallecano", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3797, "script": "Rayo Vallecano is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.09 goals and fair total 2.34.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Osasuna must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Rayo Vallecano lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Rayo Vallecano chance creation leans on Sergio Camello against Enzo Boyomo in Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Osasuna: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Lucas Torró, Ante Budimir, Kike Barja.", "Rayo Vallecano: starters carry the main goal usage through Sergio Camello; bench watchlist: Randy Nteka, Raúl de Tomás.", "Assist usage should flow through Pedro Díaz; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Rayo Vallecano tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.17 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Osasuna is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Rayo Vallecano.", "Osasuna wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Osasuna": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Sergio Herrera": { "player_id": 294377, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 192, "market_value": 2600000, "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.6694, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 8, "touches": 29, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 5.6421, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0.33, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 1.3333, "cleanSheets": 0.6667, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.6667, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 75.0, "cleanSheetPct": 66.7, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 2.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.67, "expected_saves": 1.54, "high_pressure_saves": 0.59, "shots_faced": 3.3, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello, Jorge de Frutos", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416327.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12 14:15:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Espanyol", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416318.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -1.6289 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.2211 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16815992.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.6964 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416296.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 20, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.1729 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1581, "combined_rank_score": 645.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 954.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.6694, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sergio Herrera", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jardel", "ranking": 1576 }, { "player_name": "Kim Dong-wook", "ranking": 1577 }, { "player_name": "Viktor Đukanović", "ranking": 1578 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Hall", "ranking": 1579 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Ballard", "ranking": 1580 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Maximiliano Romero", "ranking": 1582 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Digne", "ranking": 1583 }, { "player_name": "Nico Elvedi", "ranking": 1584 }, { "player_name": "Augusto Batalla", "ranking": 1585 }, { "player_name": "Pavel Šulc", "ranking": 1586 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.53, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.53, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Osasuna", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Osasuna, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.797, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 8, "touches": 30, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 5.75, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.1927, "touches": 28.7972, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 11.1527, "punches": 0.5335, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8653, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.1927 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.4071731567382812, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9806, "items": [ { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.2055 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0737 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0627 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0589 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0523 } ], "others": -0.1203, "total": 2.4072 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.0, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0536, "items": [ { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.1815 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0709 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": 0.0399 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0362 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0341 } ], "others": -0.0586, "total": -0.395 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.797021865844727, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0716, "items": [ { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.1249 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0653 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0399 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0295 } ], "others": 0.0227, "total": 6.797 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 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"expected_minutes": 25.29, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0635, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.21 (squad xG sum 1.1010, xG scale 1.1008)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0699, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.255, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.212, "squad_xg_sum": 1.101, "xg_scale": 1.1008, "scoreline_reset": true }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0635, "after": 0.0699 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0699, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.255, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4233, "fifa_rank": 4247.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.21, "expected_assists": 0.53, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 236, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 11, "avg_rating": 6.82, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Aimar Oroz", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 6900000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.485, "defenders": [ "Adrià Pedrosa" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.434, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.507, "xg_contribution": 0.0808, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "role": "RB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.493 } ], "duel_analysis": "Aimar Oroz (LW) is slightly favored against Adrià Pedrosa in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. Projected xG contribution: 0.081 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Raúl Moro", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 3300000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.441, "defenders": [ "Andrei Rațiu" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.597, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.354, "xg_contribution": 0.0755, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrei Rațiu", "role": "LB", "market_value": 16700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.646 } ], "duel_analysis": "Raúl Moro (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Andrei Rațiu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. Projected xG contribution: 0.076 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jonathan Dubasin", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 4300000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.454, "defenders": [ "Isi Palazón" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.511, "xg_contribution": 0.0631, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Isi Palazón", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.489 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jonathan Dubasin (CAM) is slightly favored against Isi Palazón in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Raúl García de Haro", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 192, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Marash Kumbulla", "Mujaid Sadick" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.447, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.212, "xg_contribution": 0.1159, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marash Kumbulla", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.788 }, { "player": "Mujaid Sadick", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.788 } ], "duel_analysis": "Raúl García de Haro (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Marash Kumbulla and Mujaid Sadick in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Projected xG contribution: 0.116 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jon Moncayola", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Pedro Díaz" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.436, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.432, "xg_contribution": 0.034, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pedro Díaz", "role": "CM", "market_value": 2900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.568 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Moncayola (CDM) is evenly matched against Pedro Díaz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.034 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jorge de Frutos", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 10900000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.533, "defenders": [ "Valentin Rosier" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.514, "xg_contribution": 0.2635, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Valentin Rosier", "role": "RB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.486 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jorge de Frutos (LW) is slightly favored against Valentin Rosier in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. Projected xG contribution: 0.263 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Sergio Camello", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 3300000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.441, "defenders": [ "Enzo Boyomo" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.575, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.404, "xg_contribution": 0.2775, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Enzo Boyomo", "role": "LB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.596 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Camello (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Enzo Boyomo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.277 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Alemão", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4400000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.455, "defenders": [ "Abel Bretones", "Jorge Herrando" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.441, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1064, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Abel Bretones", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jorge Herrando", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alemão (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Abel Bretones and Jorge Herrando in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.106 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Isi Palazón", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Jon Moncayola" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.49, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.344, "xg_contribution": 0.0417, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Moncayola", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.656 } ], "duel_analysis": "Isi Palazón (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Jon Moncayola in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. Projected xG contribution: 0.042 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pedro Díaz", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2900000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.436, "defenders": [ "Jon Moncayola" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.49, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.418, "xg_contribution": 0.0458, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Moncayola", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.582 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedro Díaz (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Jon Moncayola in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.046 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.52, "away_midfield_power": 0.436, "home_creative_power": 0.428, "away_creative_power": 0.37, "home_defensive_power": 0.397, "away_defensive_power": 0.37, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.544, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Jon Moncayola", "Aimar Oroz", "Romain Del Castillo", "Jonathan Dubasin", "Raúl Moro" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Isi Palazón", "Pedro Díaz", "Giorgi Tsitaishvili" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.7, "home_throughball_threat": 1.9, "away_throughball_threat": 1.7, "key_personal_duel": "Jon Moncayola vs Isi Palazón", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.015, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.988 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.125, "away_lambda": 1.212, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Aimar Oroz": { "opponents": [ "Adrià Pedrosa", "Isi Palazón" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Raúl Moro": { "opponents": [ "Andrei Rațiu", "Pedro Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jonathan Dubasin": { "opponents": [ "Isi Palazón" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Raúl García de Haro": { "opponents": [ "Marash Kumbulla", "Mujaid Sadick" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jon Moncayola": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Díaz", "Isi Palazón" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Valentin Rosier": { "opponents": [ "Jorge de Frutos" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Enzo Boyomo": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Camello" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Abel Bretones": { "opponents": [ "Alemão" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jorge Herrando": { "opponents": [ "Alemão" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Romain Del Castillo": { "opponents": [ "Giorgi Tsitaishvili" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Sergio Herrera": { "opponents": [ "Jorge de Frutos", "Sergio Camello" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Adrià Pedrosa": { "opponents": [ "Aimar Oroz" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Andrei Rațiu": { "opponents": [ "Raúl Moro" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Isi Palazón": { "opponents": [ "Jonathan Dubasin", "Jon Moncayola", "Aimar Oroz" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Marash Kumbulla": { "opponents": [ "Raúl García de Haro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mujaid Sadick": { "opponents": [ "Raúl García de Haro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pedro Díaz": { "opponents": [ "Jon Moncayola", "Raúl Moro" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jorge de Frutos": { "opponents": [ "Valentin Rosier" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Sergio Camello": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Boyomo" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alemão": { "opponents": [ "Abel Bretones", "Jorge Herrando" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Giorgi Tsitaishvili": { "opponents": [ "Romain Del Castillo" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Augusto Batalla": { "opponents": [ "Raúl García de Haro", "Romain Del Castillo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Jon Moncayola vs Isi Palazón will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.37, Away: 0.73. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9965, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0127, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.133, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.046, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9814, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9939, "home_midfield_factor": 1.015, "away_midfield_factor": 0.988, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4684, "away_avg_quality": 0.4661, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0023, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.0231, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.0101, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.1046, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0069, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0714, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0743, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Osasuna", "away_squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "away_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.985, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.988, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.125, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.212, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1251, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.212, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.125, "final_away_lambda": 1.212 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 8, "opponent_position": 14, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.3855, "attack_index": 1.041, "defense_concede_index": 2.082, "form_multiplier": 1.038, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.5, "team_ppg": 1.75, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 14, "opponent_position": 8, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.272, "attack_index": 1.458, "defense_concede_index": 1.249, "form_multiplier": 0.962, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.75, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.5, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.75 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3 (duel lambdas: Home 1.125, Away 1.212). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.125, Away 1.212 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 9, "home_fbref_players": 8, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 9, "away_fbref_players": 5, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Osasuna", "away_squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "away_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.985, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.988, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.125, "away_lambda": 1.212, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.125, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.212 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-18T13:31:30Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 95.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 8.0 } }