{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Celta", "away_team": "R. Racing Club", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260919", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1366, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3077, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1366 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1316 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1315 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1313 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.069 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1316, "0-1": 0.1313, "0-2": 0.0675, "0-3": 0.0229, "0-4": 0.0058, "0-5": 0.0012, "1-0": 0.1315, "1-1": 0.1366, "1-2": 0.0689, "1-3": 0.0234, "1-4": 0.0059, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0678, "2-1": 0.069, "2-2": 0.0351, "2-3": 0.0119, "2-4": 0.003, "2-5": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.023, "3-1": 0.0235, "3-2": 0.0119, "3-3": 0.0041, "3-4": 0.001, "4-0": 0.0059, "4-1": 0.006, "4-2": 0.003, "4-3": 0.001, "5-0": 0.0012, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3467, "draw": 0.3077, "away_win": 0.3456 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3336, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6664, "btts_yes": 0.4097, "btts_no": 0.5903, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3613, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.74, "MCR": 7.01, "ATR": 6.79, "GK": 6.76 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.67, "MCR": 6.79, "ATR": 6.85, "GK": 7.11 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Celta vs R. Racing Club. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Ferrán Jutglà, Yassir Zabiri", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Williot Swedberg vs Andrés Martín will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.55, Away: 0.62. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel." }, "confidence": 0.56, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.018, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3467, "draw": 0.3077, "away_win": 0.3456 }, "favorite": "Celta", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3467, "fair_spread": 0.002, "fair_total": 2.038, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Celta", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "R. Racing Club", "estimate": 1.018, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3336, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4097, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Celta", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3613, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "R. Racing Club", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Jones El-Abdellaoui (Celta)", "estimate": 0.1967, "probability": 0.2964, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Andrés Martín (R. Racing Club)", "estimate": 0.2317, "probability": 0.096, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Hugo Álvarez (Celta)", "estimate": 0.1178, "probability": 0.1761, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Iñigo Vicente (R. Racing Club)", "estimate": 0.1392, "probability": 0.2713, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.038, "expected_total_shots": 22, "expected_total_passes": 624, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.2, "possession_home_pct": 51.0, "possession_away_pct": 49.0, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Celta", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3467, "script": "Celta is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.00 goals and fair total 2.04.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 11 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; R. Racing Club must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Celta lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "R. Racing Club chance creation leans on Andrés Martín against Ilaix Moriba in Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Celta: starters carry the main goal usage through Ferrán Jutglà; bench watchlist: Couhaib Driouech, Javier Rueda, Pablo Durán.", "R. Racing Club: starters carry the main goal usage through Yassir Zabiri; bench watchlist: Asier Villalibre, Juan Carlos Arana.", "Assist usage should flow through Miguel Román, Iñigo Vicente; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Celta tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 11 total first-half shots, and 1.02 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If R. Racing Club is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Celta.", "R. Racing Club wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Celta": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Ionuț Radu": { "player_id": 815202, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 188, "market_value": 8700000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.7577, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 12, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 44, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 9.0191, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 4.5, "cleanSheets": 0.5, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.25, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 77.8, "cleanSheetPct": 50.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "expected_saves": 1.3, "high_pressure_saves": 0.5, "shots_faced": 2.8, "opponent_faced": "Andrés Martín, Yassir Zabiri", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416347.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13 12:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Celta", "away_team": "Málaga", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Celta", "opponent": "Málaga", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416348.0, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.0814 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340.0, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 20, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.8429 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416308.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 38, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.8261 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16815992.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 27, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.6642 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.1435 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1679, "combined_rank_score": 681.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 129.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.375, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 1234.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.7577, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ionuț Radu", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jonathan Burkardt", "ranking": 1674 }, { "player_name": "Reinildo", "ranking": 1675 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Hernández", "ranking": 1676 }, { "player_name": "Davide Zappacosta", "ranking": 1677 }, { "player_name": "Vicente Fernández", "ranking": 1678 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Beom-su Lee", "ranking": 1680 }, { "player_name": "Hyeon-oh Kim", "ranking": 1681 }, { "player_name": "Osvaldo Bosso", "ranking": 1682 }, { "player_name": "Guillermo Pacheco", "ranking": 1683 }, { "player_name": "Jovany Campusano", "ranking": 1684 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.603, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.603, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0021, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Celta Vigo", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 4.0, "minutes": 360.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 5 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Celta Vigo, rel: 0.27, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.7434, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 12, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 44, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 9.0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 1.0772, "touches": 43.9357, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 22.708, "punches": 0.9596, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9881, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.0772 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.7684178352355957, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9806, "items": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.1355 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.1079 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0482 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0448 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.0289 } ], "others": 0.0953, "total": 2.7684 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.0, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0536, "items": [ { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0879 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.0449 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0441 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0356 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.023 } ], "others": -0.0427, "total": -0.1976 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7434000968933105, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0716, "items": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.1415 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.1036 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0962 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.0607 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.055 } ], "others": 0.0074, "total": 6.7434 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0021, quality 0.507)", "stats": { 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"importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0579, "items": [ { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0064 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0037 } ], "others": -0.0098, "total": 0.0581 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5937657952308655, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6829, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1255 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0316 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0235 } ], "others": 0.0151, "total": 0.5938 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.840456008911133, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7136, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.098 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0471 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0344 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", 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"data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.292222187561247, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5587373721618749, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (3 historical appearances) to 25.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.56)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 6 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1027, "goal_rate": 0.1659, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6837, "minutes": 51, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 8.33, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:52.318462+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 278, "rows": 769 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 21.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3887, "totalShots": 0.6696, "minutesPlayed": 48.689, "touches": 15.8173, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.1937 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.10266821086406708, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0545 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0314 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2757, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0602 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0273 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0095 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0755, "total": 0.1027 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.1658586859703064, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3455, "items": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0545 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0442 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0328 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0173 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0158 } ], "others": -0.0812, "total": 0.1659 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.46368908882141113, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0703 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0347 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6329, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0456 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0288 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.014 } ], "others": -0.0453, "total": 0.4637 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.026229199022054672, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0579, "items": [ { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0052 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0033 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0024 } ], "others": -0.0069, "total": 0.0262 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.40193769335746765, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0313 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6829, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1945 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0258 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0172 } ], "others": -0.0349, "total": 0.4019 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6836676597595215, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "speed_threat", "importance": 0.0598 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0439 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0404 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7136, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0584 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0453 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0332 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0306 } ], "others": 0.0557, "total": 6.6837 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1007, "goal_rate": 0.1627, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5582, "minutes": 50, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 8.1736, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2100000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0283, "goal_rate": 0.0457, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0072, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5582, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 2.297, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0283, "goal_rate": 0.0457, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0072, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5582, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 2.297, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.8388, xG scale 1.2136)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0343, "goal_rate": 0.0457, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0072, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5582, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 2.297, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.242, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.018, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8388, "xg_scale": 1.2136, "scoreline_reset": true }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0283, "after": 0.0343 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0343, "goal_rate": 0.0457, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0072, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5582, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 2.297, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.242, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2545, "fifa_rank": 1204.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.57, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 251, "interceptions": 4, "tackles": 8, "avg_rating": 6.79, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Sergio Carreira", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 11500000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.54, "defenders": [ "Matteo Prati" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.462, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.407, "xg_contribution": 0.0629, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matteo Prati", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 5000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.593 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Carreira (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Matteo Prati in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Williot Swedberg", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 18700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.618, "defenders": [ "André Almeida" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.477, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.55, "xg_contribution": 0.0941, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "André Almeida", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.45 } ], "duel_analysis": "Williot Swedberg (CM) is slightly favored against André Almeida in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 55%. Projected xG contribution: 0.094 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Miguel Román", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 14400000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.573, "defenders": [ "André Almeida" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.477, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.501, "xg_contribution": 0.0696, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "André Almeida", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.499 } ], "duel_analysis": "Miguel Román (CM) is slightly favored against André Almeida in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Projected xG contribution: 0.070 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Hugo Álvarez", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 7800000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.496, "defenders": [ "Iñigo Vicente" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.482, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.419, "xg_contribution": 0.0856, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iñigo Vicente", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 6600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.581 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hugo Álvarez (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Iñigo Vicente in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.086 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ferrán Jutglà", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Jeanuël Belocian", "Jorge Salinas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.53, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1143, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jeanuël Belocian", "role": "CB", "market_value": 12900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jorge Salinas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ferrán Jutglà (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jeanuël Belocian and Jorge Salinas in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.114 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jones El-Abdellaoui", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 8400000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.503, "defenders": [ "Jeanuël Belocian", "Jorge Salinas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.53, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.19, "xg_contribution": 0.1269, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jeanuël Belocian", "role": "CB", "market_value": 12900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.81 }, { "player": "Jorge Salinas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.81 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jones El-Abdellaoui (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jeanuël Belocian and Jorge Salinas in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Projected xG contribution: 0.127 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Iñigo Vicente", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 6600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.482, "defenders": [ "Hugo Álvarez" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.496, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.421, "xg_contribution": 0.0501, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Hugo Álvarez", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 7800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.579 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iñigo Vicente (LWB) is evenly matched against Hugo Álvarez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.050 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Pablo García", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 8199999, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.501, "defenders": [ "Ilaix Moriba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.565, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.389, "xg_contribution": 0.0501, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ilaix Moriba", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 13700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.611 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo García (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Ilaix Moriba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.050 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Andrés Martín", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 8199999, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.501, "defenders": [ "Ilaix Moriba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.565, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.401, "xg_contribution": 0.1852, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ilaix Moriba", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 13700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.599 } ], "duel_analysis": "Andrés Martín (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Ilaix Moriba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.185 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Matteo Prati", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 5000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.462, "defenders": [ "Sergio Carreira" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.54, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.433, "xg_contribution": 0.0378, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sergio Carreira", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 11500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.567 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matteo Prati (RWB) is evenly matched against Sergio Carreira in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.038 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Yassir Zabiri", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 9800000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.52, "defenders": [ "Javi Rodríguez", "Abdoulaye Faye" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.529, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1823, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Javi Rodríguez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 17500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Abdoulaye Faye", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yassir Zabiri (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Javi Rodríguez and Abdoulaye Faye in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.182 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Giorgi Guliashvili", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3400000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.442, "defenders": [ "Javi Rodríguez", "Abdoulaye Faye" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.529, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1144, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Javi Rodríguez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 17500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Abdoulaye Faye", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Giorgi Guliashvili (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Javi Rodríguez and Abdoulaye Faye in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.114 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.608, "away_midfield_power": 0.535, "home_creative_power": 0.475, "away_creative_power": 0.441, "home_defensive_power": 0.475, "away_defensive_power": 0.413, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.532, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Williot Swedberg", "Miguel Román", "Ilaix Moriba", "Sergio Carreira", "Hugo Álvarez" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Andrés Martín", "Pablo García", "Iñigo Vicente", "André Almeida", "Matteo Prati" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "home_throughball_threat": 2.0, "away_throughball_threat": 1.9, "key_personal_duel": "Williot Swedberg vs Andrés Martín", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.012, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.99 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.018, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Sergio Carreira": { "opponents": [ "Matteo Prati", "Iñigo Vicente" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Williot Swedberg": { "opponents": [ "André Almeida", "Pablo García" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Miguel Román": { "opponents": [ "André Almeida", "Andrés Martín" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hugo Álvarez": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Vicente", "Matteo Prati" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ferrán Jutglà": { "opponents": [ "Jeanuël Belocian", "Jorge Salinas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jones El-Abdellaoui": { "opponents": [ "Jeanuël Belocian", "Jorge Salinas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ilaix Moriba": { "opponents": [ "Pablo García", "Andrés Martín", "André Almeida" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Javi Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri", "Giorgi Guliashvili" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Abdoulaye Faye": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri", "Giorgi Guliashvili" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ionuț Radu": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri", "Giorgi Guliashvili" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Sebastián Cáceres": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Matteo Prati": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Carreira", "Hugo Álvarez" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "André Almeida": { "opponents": [ "Williot Swedberg", "Miguel Román", "Ilaix Moriba" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Iñigo Vicente": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Álvarez", "Sergio Carreira" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jeanuël Belocian": { "opponents": [ "Ferrán Jutglà", "Jones El-Abdellaoui" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jorge Salinas": { "opponents": [ "Ferrán Jutglà", "Jones El-Abdellaoui" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pablo García": { "opponents": [ "Ilaix Moriba", "Williot Swedberg" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Andrés Martín": { "opponents": [ "Ilaix Moriba", "Miguel Román" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yassir Zabiri": { "opponents": [ "Javi Rodríguez", "Abdoulaye Faye" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Giorgi Guliashvili": { "opponents": [ "Javi Rodríguez", "Abdoulaye Faye" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Julen Agirrezabala": { "opponents": [ "Ferrán Jutglà", "Jones El-Abdellaoui" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Facundo González": { "opponents": [ "Ferrán Jutglà" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Williot Swedberg vs Andrés Martín will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.55, Away: 0.62. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9768, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9821, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.051, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.082, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9901, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.994, "home_midfield_factor": 1.012, "away_midfield_factor": 0.99, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5335, "away_avg_quality": 0.4885, "avg_quality_gap": 0.045, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.3903, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.3985, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.5059, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0982, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.054, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0314, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0676, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0448, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.891, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.018, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.8906, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.0178, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 1.018 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 16, "opponent_position": 13, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8618, "attack_index": 0.416, "defense_concede_index": 1.666, "form_multiplier": 0.977, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.0, "team_ppg": 0.6, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 13, "opponent_position": 16, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1901, "attack_index": 1.458, "defense_concede_index": 1.041, "form_multiplier": 1.023, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.75, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.6 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Celta vs R. Racing Club. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-5-2 vs 3-5-2 (duel lambdas: Home 0.891, Away 1.018). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.020, Away 1.018 (most likely score 1-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 10, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 0, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.018, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.891, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.018 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-19T13:31:27Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 95.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 8.0 } }