{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Deportivo", "away_team": "Real Betis", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260920", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1029, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Deportivo", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.249, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1029 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1182 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0947 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0839 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0716 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0652, "0-1": 0.0716, "0-2": 0.0409, "0-3": 0.0154, "0-4": 0.0043, "0-5": 0.001, "1-0": 0.1029, "1-1": 0.1182, "1-2": 0.0662, "1-3": 0.0249, "1-4": 0.007, "1-5": 0.0016, "2-0": 0.0839, "2-1": 0.0947, "2-2": 0.0535, "2-3": 0.0201, "2-4": 0.0057, "2-5": 0.0013, "3-0": 0.0452, "3-1": 0.051, "3-2": 0.0288, "3-3": 0.0108, "3-4": 0.0031, "3-5": 0.0007, "4-0": 0.0183, "4-1": 0.0206, "4-2": 0.0116, "4-3": 0.0044, "4-4": 0.0012, "5-0": 0.0059, "5-1": 0.0067, "5-2": 0.0038, "5-3": 0.0014, "6-0": 0.0016, "6-1": 0.0018, "6-2": 0.001 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4858, "draw": 0.249, "away_win": 0.2652 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5173, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4827, "btts_yes": 0.5432, "btts_no": 0.4568, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3234, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1987 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.61, "MCR": 6.81, "ATR": 6.89, "GK": 7.03 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.87, "MCR": 7.15, "ATR": 7.02, "GK": 7.35 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Deportivo vs Real Betis. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Adama Traoré", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Marc Casadó vs Abdessamad Ezzalzouli will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.38, Away: 0.68. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel." }, "confidence": 0.59, "home_lambda": 1.616, "away_lambda": 1.129, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1182, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4858, "draw": 0.249, "away_win": 0.2652 }, "favorite": "Deportivo", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4858, "fair_spread": 0.487, "fair_total": 2.745, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Deportivo", "estimate": 1.616, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Betis", "estimate": 1.129, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5173, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5432, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Deportivo", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3234, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Betis", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1987, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Adama Traoré (Deportivo)", "estimate": 0.2798, "probability": 0.2968, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Troy Parrott (Real Betis)", "estimate": 0.2138, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Angeliño (Deportivo)", "estimate": 0.13, "probability": 0.2651, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Antony (Real Betis)", "estimate": 0.1495, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.745, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 700, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.9, "possession_home_pct": 48.6, "possession_away_pct": 51.4, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Deportivo", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4858, "script": "Deportivo is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.49 goals and fair total 2.75.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Real Betis must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Deportivo lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Betis chance creation leans on Antony against Lorenzo Amatucci in Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Deportivo: starters carry the main goal usage through Adama Traoré; bench watchlist: Jonathan Asp Jensen, Bil Nsongo.", "Real Betis: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Pablo García, Dani Ceballos, Álvaro Fidalgo.", "Assist usage should flow through Angeliño; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Deportivo tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.37 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Real Betis is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Deportivo.", "Real Betis wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Deportivo": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Leo Román": { "player_id": 1131909, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 189, "market_value": 5800000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0893, "rating": 7.0272, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 14, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 45, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 9.1723, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "expected_saves": 1.43, "high_pressure_saves": 0.54, "shots_faced": 3.1, "opponent_faced": "Antony, Troy Parrott", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416326.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13 16:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Deportivo", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416324.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 28, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.5197 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416291.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 24, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.5332 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 39, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.3223 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421050.0, "match_date": "2026-08-17", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.538 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2271, "combined_rank_score": 830.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 91.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.5, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1570.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.0272, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Leo Román", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bafodé Diakité", "ranking": 2266 }, { "player_name": "Kwasi Sibo", "ranking": 2267 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Henderson", "ranking": 2268 }, { "player_name": "Andoni Gorosabel", "ranking": 2269 }, { "player_name": "Jeong-Yeon Wu", "ranking": 2270 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mathías Olivera", "ranking": 2272 }, { "player_name": "Luis Suárez", "ranking": 2273 }, { "player_name": "Calvin Bassey", "ranking": 2274 }, { "player_name": "Shahzod Akramov", "ranking": 2275 }, { "player_name": "Yves Bissouma", "ranking": 2276 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9916, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 3 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0901, "rating": 7.0867, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 14, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 46, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 9.25, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-17", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.3138, "touches": 45.6156, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 28.01, "punches": 0.0, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9185, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.3138 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8497769832611084, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9806, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.1304 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0347 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0306 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0281 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0213 } ], "others": 0.0449, "total": 2.8498 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.09005806595087051, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0536, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0443 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0439 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0335 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0316 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.0239 } ], "others": 0.0813, "total": 0.0901 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.08671760559082, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0716, "items": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0807 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0653 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0378 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0359 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0313 } ], "others": -0.0297, "total": 7.0867 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9916, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0893, "rating": 7.0272, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 14, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 45, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 9.1723, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5800000, "quality_factor": 0.472, "boost_factor": 0.9916 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0893, "rating": 7.0272, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 14, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 45, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 9.1723, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0893, "rating": 7.0272, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 14, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 45, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 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"schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 10.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 1.8049, "touches": 37.6558, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 14.955, "punches": 0.5405, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9017, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.6122 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.499781608581543, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9806, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.3195 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0645 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0618 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": -0.0474 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0423 } ], "others": 0.2921, "total": 3.4998 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.32851865887641907, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0536, "items": [ { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.1775 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1155 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0551 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0289 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0207 } ], "others": 0.0836, "total": 0.3285 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.39232063293457, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0716, "items": [ { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.1204 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0845 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.0733 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": 0.0311 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0289 } ], "others": -0.0175, "total": 7.3923 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9942, quality 0.481)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.3266, "rating": 7.3492, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 12, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 38, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 7.7048, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6500000, "quality_factor": 0.4805, "boost_factor": 0.9942 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0722)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.3266, "rating": 7.3492, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 12, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 38, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 7.7048, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.67, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 5.0, "cleanSheets": 0.6667, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 66.7, "cleanSheetPct": 66.7, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -0.33 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0722, "history_matches": 4, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 3.4794, "after": 3.4689 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.3266, "rating": 7.3492, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 12, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 38, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 7.7048, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, 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"shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.13 (squad xG sum 0.7631, xG scale 1.4795)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0103, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0089, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6066, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 0.4892, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.14, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.349, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.129, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7631, "xg_scale": 1.4795, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0103, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0089, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6066, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 0.4892, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.14, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.349, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1509, "fifa_rank": 945.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.13, "expected_assists": 0.79, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 414, "interceptions": 4, "tackles": 6, "avg_rating": 7.07, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mario Soriano", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 4600000, "attacker_height": 163, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.457, "defenders": [ "Pablo Fornals" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.503, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.339, "xg_contribution": 0.03, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.6, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Fornals", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.661 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mario Soriano (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Pablo Fornals in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. Projected xG contribution: 0.030 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Angeliño", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 4200000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.452, "defenders": [ "Giovani Lo Celso" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.496, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.406, "xg_contribution": 0.0811, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giovani Lo Celso", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 7800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.594 } ], "duel_analysis": "Angeliño (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Giovani Lo Celso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.081 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Marc Casadó", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 17400000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.605, "defenders": [ "Giovani Lo Celso" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.496, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "xg_contribution": 0.0544, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giovani Lo Celso", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 7800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.521 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marc Casadó (CM) is evenly matched against Giovani Lo Celso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.054 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "David Mella", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 4500000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.456, "defenders": [ "Nelson Deossa" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.52, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.331, "xg_contribution": 0.051, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nelson Deossa", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 9800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.669 } ], "duel_analysis": "David Mella (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Nelson Deossa in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Yeremay Hernández", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Natan", "Valentín Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.611, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0754, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Natan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Valentín Gómez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 11200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yeremay Hernández (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Natan and Valentín Gómez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.075 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Adama Traoré", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5700000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.471, "defenders": [ "Natan", "Valentín Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.611, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0839, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Natan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Valentín Gómez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 11200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Adama Traoré (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Natan and Valentín Gómez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.084 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Nelson Deossa", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 9800000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.52, "defenders": [ "David Mella" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.456, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.509, "xg_contribution": 0.0565, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "David Mella", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 4500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.491 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nelson Deossa (LWB) is slightly favored against David Mella in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. Projected xG contribution: 0.057 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.501, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.603, "xg_contribution": 0.0884, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 8199999, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.397 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Lorenzo Amatucci in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €8M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.088 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Antony", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.501, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.568, "xg_contribution": 0.1735, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 8199999, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.432 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antony (CM) is slightly favored against Lorenzo Amatucci in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€37M vs €8M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.173 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Fornals", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 8400000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.503, "defenders": [ "Mario Soriano" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.457, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.501, "xg_contribution": 0.0848, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mario Soriano", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.499 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Fornals (RWB) is slightly favored against Mario Soriano in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Projected xG contribution: 0.085 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Troy Parrott", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "José María Giménez", "Giacomo Quagliata" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.466, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.303, "xg_contribution": 0.1445, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "José María Giménez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.697 }, { "player": "Giacomo Quagliata", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.697 } ], "duel_analysis": "Troy Parrott (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against José María Giménez and Giacomo Quagliata in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €5M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.144 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Cucho Hernández", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 16500000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.595, "defenders": [ "José María Giménez", "Giacomo Quagliata" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.466, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "xg_contribution": 0.1327, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "José María Giménez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766 }, { "player": "Giacomo Quagliata", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cucho Hernández (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against José María Giménez and Giacomo Quagliata in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Projected xG contribution: 0.133 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.544, "away_midfield_power": 0.666, "home_creative_power": 0.453, "away_creative_power": 0.629, "home_defensive_power": 0.467, "away_defensive_power": 0.559, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.45, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Marc Casadó", "Lorenzo Amatucci", "Mario Soriano", "David Mella", "Angeliño" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "Antony", "Nelson Deossa", "Pablo Fornals", "Giovani Lo Celso" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.6, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.4, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.2, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.3, "home_throughball_threat": 2.0, "away_throughball_threat": 2.5, "key_personal_duel": "Marc Casadó vs Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.982, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.021 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.616, "away_lambda": 1.129, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Mario Soriano": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Fornals", "Nelson Deossa" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Angeliño": { "opponents": [ "Giovani Lo Celso", "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Marc Casadó": { "opponents": [ "Giovani Lo Celso", "Antony" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "David Mella": { "opponents": [ "Nelson Deossa", "Pablo Fornals" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yeremay Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Natan", "Valentín Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Adama Traoré": { "opponents": [ "Natan", "Valentín Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lorenzo Amatucci": { "opponents": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "Antony", "Giovani Lo Celso" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "José María Giménez": { "opponents": [ "Troy Parrott", "Cucho Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Giacomo Quagliata": { "opponents": [ "Troy Parrott", "Cucho Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Leo Román": { "opponents": [ "Troy Parrott", "Cucho Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Adrià Altimira": { "opponents": [ "Troy Parrott" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Pablo Fornals": { "opponents": [ "Mario Soriano", "David Mella" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Giovani Lo Celso": { "opponents": [ "Angeliño", "Marc Casadó", "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nelson Deossa": { "opponents": [ "David Mella", "Mario Soriano" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Natan": { "opponents": [ "Yeremay Hernández", "Adama Traoré" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Valentín Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Yeremay Hernández", "Adama Traoré" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli": { "opponents": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci", "Angeliño" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Antony": { "opponents": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci", "Marc Casadó" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Troy Parrott": { "opponents": [ "José María Giménez", "Giacomo Quagliata" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Cucho Hernández": { "opponents": [ "José María Giménez", "Giacomo Quagliata" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Álvaro Valles": { "opponents": [ "Yeremay Hernández", "Adama Traoré" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Fran García": { "opponents": [ "Yeremay Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Marc Casadó vs Abdessamad Ezzalzouli will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.38, Away: 0.68. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.993, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9965, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.005, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0569, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9683, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0166, "home_midfield_factor": 0.982, "away_midfield_factor": 1.021, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4955, "away_avg_quality": 0.607, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1115, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.808, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.7576, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.6951, "elite_count_gap": -1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2188, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1203, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.07, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.053, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0477, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "smooth_softplus", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.84, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.129, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.84, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.1287, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.616, "final_away_lambda": 1.129 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 5, "opponent_position": 4, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.2506, "attack_index": 1.666, "defense_concede_index": 1.041, "form_multiplier": 0.985, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 2.0, "opponent_ppg": 2.25 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 4, "opponent_position": 5, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0359, "attack_index": 1.041, "defense_concede_index": 1.041, "form_multiplier": 1.015, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 2.25, "opponent_ppg": 2.0 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Deportivo vs Real Betis. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-5-2 vs 3-5-2 (duel lambdas: Home 0.840, Away 1.129). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.616, Away 1.129 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 10, "home_fbref_players": 0, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 10, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.616, "away_lambda": 1.129, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.84, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.129 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-20T13:31:01Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 95.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 8.0 } }