{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Leeds", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260920", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1151, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Leeds", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2506, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1151 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1192 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0953 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0934 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0729 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0729, "0-1": 0.0725, "0-2": 0.0375, "0-3": 0.0127, "0-4": 0.0032, "0-5": 0.0007, "1-0": 0.1151, "1-1": 0.1192, "1-2": 0.0603, "1-3": 0.0205, "1-4": 0.0052, "1-5": 0.0011, "2-0": 0.0934, "2-1": 0.0953, "2-2": 0.0486, "2-3": 0.0165, "2-4": 0.0042, "2-5": 0.0009, "3-0": 0.0502, "3-1": 0.0512, "3-2": 0.0261, "3-3": 0.0089, "3-4": 0.0023, "4-0": 0.0202, "4-1": 0.0206, "4-2": 0.0105, "4-3": 0.0036, "4-4": 0.0009, "5-0": 0.0065, "5-1": 0.0066, "5-2": 0.0034, "5-3": 0.0012, "6-0": 0.0017, "6-1": 0.0018, "6-2": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5104, "draw": 0.2506, "away_win": 0.239 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4893, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5107, "btts_yes": 0.5126, "btts_no": 0.4874, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1997 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.01, "MCR": 7.26, "ATR": 7.15, "GK": 7.59 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.14, "MCR": 7.32, "ATR": 7.22, "GK": 7.43 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Leeds vs Crystal Palace. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Jean-Mattéo Bahoya", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Ethan Ampadu vs Adam Wharton will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.90, Away: 0.69. Home danger zone: LW vs CB. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense." }, "confidence": 0.59, "home_lambda": 1.611, "away_lambda": 1.02, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1192, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5104, "draw": 0.2506, "away_win": 0.239 }, "favorite": "Leeds", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5104, "fair_spread": 0.591, "fair_total": 2.631, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Leeds", "estimate": 1.611, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Crystal Palace", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4893, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5126, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Leeds", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Crystal Palace", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1997, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Jean-Mattéo Bahoya (Leeds)", "estimate": 0.4479, "probability": 0.3198, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ismaïla Sarr (Crystal Palace)", "estimate": 0.2729, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jean-Mattéo Bahoya (Leeds)", "estimate": 0.114, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ismaïla Sarr (Crystal Palace)", "estimate": 0.131, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.631, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 689, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.4, "possession_home_pct": 49.7, "possession_away_pct": 50.3, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Leeds", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5104, "script": "Leeds is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.59 goals and fair total 2.63.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Crystal Palace must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Leeds lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Crystal Palace chance creation leans on Ismaïla Sarr against Tarik Muharemović, Harry Wilson in Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Leeds: starters carry the main goal usage through Jean-Mattéo Bahoya; bench watchlist: Wilfried Gnonto, Sean Longstaff.", "Crystal Palace: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Yéremy Pino, Evann Guessand, Dwight McNeil.", "Assist usage should flow through the projected key-pass leaders; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Leeds tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.32 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Crystal Palace is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Leeds.", "Crystal Palace wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Leeds": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "James Trafford": { "player_id": 980643, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 197, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1826, "rating": 7.5889, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 24, "accurate_long_balls": 9, "touches": 52, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 15.8736, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0.5, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 4.0, "cleanSheets": 0.5, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 87.5, "cleanSheetPct": 50.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.5, "expected_saves": 1.46, "high_pressure_saves": 0.56, "shots_faced": 3.1, "opponent_faced": "Ismaïla Sarr, Jean-Philippe Mateta", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363644.0, "match_date": "2026-09-14 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17.0, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668.0, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Leeds", "away_team": "Newcastle", "home_score_current": 4.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Newcastle", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363258.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.3189 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 32, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.1874 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 19, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.3277 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1256, "combined_rank_score": 548.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 212.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.175, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 885.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.5889, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "James Trafford", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rafael Caroca", "ranking": 1251 }, { "player_name": "Leandro Hernández", "ranking": 1252 }, { "player_name": "Israel Poblete", "ranking": 1253 }, { "player_name": "Julian Chabot", "ranking": 1254 }, { "player_name": "Filip Kurto", "ranking": 1255 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ju-sung Kim", "ranking": 1257 }, { "player_name": "Saidafzalkhon Akhrorov", "ranking": 1258 }, { "player_name": "Dostonbek Tursunov", "ranking": 1259 }, { "player_name": "Sylvanus Nimely", "ranking": 1260 }, { "player_name": "Alex Valdés", "ranking": 1261 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.457, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0582, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1726, "rating": 7.1712, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 23, "accurate_long_balls": 8, "touches": 49, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 15.0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.8426, "touches": 49.5782, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 16.8309, "punches": 0.7775, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9142, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.8426 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8985090255737305, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9806, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.1213 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0612 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0563 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0495 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0285 } ], "others": 0.0787, "total": 2.8985 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.17256487905979156, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0536, "items": [ { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.1484 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0362 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0356 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0334 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0244 } ], "others": 0.0194, "total": 0.1726 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.171224594116211, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0716, "items": [ { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.1133 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0704 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0446 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0408 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0266 } ], "others": -0.0553, "total": 7.1712 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0582, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1826, "rating": 7.5889, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 24, "accurate_long_balls": 9, "touches": 52, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 15.8736, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0582 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1826, "rating": 7.5889, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 24, "accurate_long_balls": 9, "touches": 52, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 15.8736, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0.5, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 4.0, "cleanSheets": 0.5, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, 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"ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3339, "fifa_rank": 1788.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.65, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 386, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 21, "avg_rating": 7.26, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Harry Wilson", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Adam Wharton" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.876, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.302, "xg_contribution": 0.0345, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adam Wharton", "role": "CM", "market_value": 74000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.698 } ], "duel_analysis": "Harry Wilson (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Adam Wharton in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €74M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.034 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Anton Stach", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 192, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Adam Wharton" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.876, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.378, "xg_contribution": 0.1707, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adam Wharton", "role": "CM", "market_value": 74000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.622 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anton Stach (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Adam Wharton in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €74M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.171 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jean-Mattéo Bahoya", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Honest Ahanor" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.379, "xg_contribution": 0.2941, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Honest Ahanor", "role": "CB", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.621 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jean-Mattéo Bahoya (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Honest Ahanor in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.294 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Honest Ahanor", "Jaydee Canvot" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.701, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.189, "xg_contribution": 0.2286, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Honest Ahanor", "role": "CB", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.811 }, { "player": "Jaydee Canvot", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.811 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Honest Ahanor and Jaydee Canvot in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Projected xG contribution: 0.229 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Noah Okafor", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Honest Ahanor" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.41, "xg_contribution": 0.1741, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Honest Ahanor", "role": "CB", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.59 } ], "duel_analysis": "Noah Okafor (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Honest Ahanor in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.174 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jean-Philippe Mateta", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 29000000, "attacker_height": 192, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.71, "defenders": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Joe Rodon" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.203, "xg_contribution": 0.1328, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tarik Muharemović", "role": "CB", "market_value": 38000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.797 }, { "player": "Joe Rodon", "role": "CB", "market_value": 18800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.797 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jean-Philippe Mateta (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Tarik Muharemović and Joe Rodon in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. Projected xG contribution: 0.133 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ismaïla Sarr", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Harry Wilson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.732, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.317, "xg_contribution": 0.3061, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tarik Muharemović", "role": "CB", "market_value": 38000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.683 }, { "player": "Harry Wilson", "role": "CM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.683 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ismaïla Sarr (SS) is heavily outmatched defensively against Tarik Muharemović and Harry Wilson in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 32%. Projected xG contribution: 0.306 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Quinten Timber", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Noah Okafor" ], "defender_roles": [ "RW" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.396, "xg_contribution": 0.0675, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Noah Okafor", "role": "RW", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.604 } ], "duel_analysis": "Quinten Timber (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Noah Okafor in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.067 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Tyrick Mitchell", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Jean-Mattéo Bahoya" ], "defender_roles": [ "LW" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.412, "xg_contribution": 0.1247, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jean-Mattéo Bahoya", "role": "LW", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.588 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tyrick Mitchell (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Jean-Mattéo Bahoya in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.125 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Adam Wharton", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 74000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.876, "defenders": [ "Harry Wilson", "Ethan Ampadu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.698, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Mid + CDM Pressing Trap", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.348, "xg_contribution": 0.0635, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Harry Wilson", "role": "CM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.652 }, { "player": "Ethan Ampadu", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.652 } ], "duel_analysis": "Adam Wharton (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Harry Wilson and Ethan Ampadu in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€74M vs €28M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.697, "away_midfield_power": 0.743, "home_creative_power": 0.59, "away_creative_power": 0.564, "home_defensive_power": 0.732, "away_defensive_power": 0.726, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.484, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Ethan Ampadu", "Harry Wilson", "Anton Stach" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Adam Wharton", "Quinten Timber", "Anan Khalaili", "Tyrick Mitchell" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.2, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.9, "home_throughball_threat": 2.4, "away_throughball_threat": 2.3, "key_personal_duel": "Ethan Ampadu vs Adam Wharton", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.989, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.994 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.06, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.06, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.611, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "LW vs CB", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Harry Wilson": { "opponents": [ "Adam Wharton", "Ismaïla Sarr", "Anan Khalaili" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Anton Stach": { "opponents": [ "Adam Wharton", "Quinten Timber" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jean-Mattéo Bahoya": { "opponents": [ "Honest Ahanor", "Tyrick Mitchell" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel" }, "Dominic Calvert-Lewin": { "opponents": [ "Honest Ahanor", "Jaydee Canvot" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Noah Okafor": { "opponents": [ "Honest Ahanor", "Quinten Timber" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel" }, "Tarik Muharemović": { "opponents": [ "Jean-Philippe Mateta", "Ismaïla Sarr" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Joe Rodon": { "opponents": [ "Jean-Philippe Mateta" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ethan Ampadu": { "opponents": [ "Adam Wharton", "Tyrick Mitchell" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Mid + CDM Pressing Trap", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "James Trafford": { "opponents": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "Ismaïla Sarr" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Gabriel Gudmundsson": { "opponents": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jaka Bijol": { "opponents": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Adam Wharton": { "opponents": [ "Harry Wilson", "Anton Stach", "Ethan Ampadu" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Honest Ahanor": { "opponents": [ "Jean-Mattéo Bahoya", "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "Noah Okafor" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jaydee Canvot": { "opponents": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jean-Philippe Mateta": { "opponents": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Joe Rodon" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ismaïla Sarr": { "opponents": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Harry Wilson" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Quinten Timber": { "opponents": [ "Noah Okafor", "Anton Stach" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tyrick Mitchell": { "opponents": [ "Jean-Mattéo Bahoya", "Ethan Ampadu" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Anan Khalaili": { "opponents": [ "Harry Wilson" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Dean Henderson": { "opponents": [ "Noah Okafor", "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Chris Richards": { "opponents": [ "Jean-Mattéo Bahoya" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jørgen Strand Larsen": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "Jaka Bijol" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Ethan Ampadu vs Adam Wharton will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.90, Away: 0.69. Home danger zone: LW vs CB. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9054, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9271, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9232, "home_midfield_factor": 0.989, "away_midfield_factor": 0.994, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6767, "away_avg_quality": 0.7244, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0476, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.2818, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.3731, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.473, "elite_count_gap": -3, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1287, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0708, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0412, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0762, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0807, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.611, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.909, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.6112, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.9087, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.611, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 9, "opponent_position": 14, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.3611, "attack_index": 1.249, "defense_concede_index": 1.666, "form_multiplier": 1.035, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.0, "team_ppg": 1.67, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 14, "opponent_position": 9, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8593, "attack_index": 0.833, "defense_concede_index": 0.833, "form_multiplier": 0.965, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.0, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.67 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Leeds vs Crystal Palace. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-3-3 vs 3-4-2-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.611, Away 0.909). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.611, Away 1.020 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 10, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 9, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.611, "away_lambda": 1.02, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.611, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.909 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-19T13:32:24Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 95.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 8.0 } }