{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Levante", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260920", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "5-4-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-2", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0832, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Levante", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2276, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0832 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0969 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0806 }, { "score": "2-2", "probability": 0.0697 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0566 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0339, "0-1": 0.0566, "0-2": 0.0496, "0-3": 0.0286, "0-4": 0.0124, "0-5": 0.0043, "0-6": 0.0012, "1-0": 0.0548, "1-1": 0.0969, "1-2": 0.0832, "1-3": 0.048, "1-4": 0.0207, "1-5": 0.0072, "1-6": 0.0021, "1-7": 0.0005, "2-0": 0.0466, "2-1": 0.0806, "2-2": 0.0697, "2-3": 0.0402, "2-4": 0.0174, "2-5": 0.006, "2-6": 0.0017, "3-0": 0.0261, "3-1": 0.0451, "3-2": 0.039, "3-3": 0.0225, "3-4": 0.0097, "3-5": 0.0034, "3-6": 0.001, "4-0": 0.0109, "4-1": 0.0189, "4-2": 0.0163, "4-3": 0.0094, "4-4": 0.0041, "4-5": 0.0014, "5-0": 0.0037, "5-1": 0.0063, "5-2": 0.0055, "5-3": 0.0032, "5-4": 0.0014, "6-0": 0.001, "6-1": 0.0018, "6-2": 0.0015, "6-3": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3752, "draw": 0.2276, "away_win": 0.3972 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6616, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3384, "btts_yes": 0.6697, "btts_no": 0.3303, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1773, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1869 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.02, "MCR": 7.27, "ATR": 7.4, "GK": 6.62 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.76, "MCR": 6.76, "ATR": 6.88, "GK": 7.18 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Villarreal vs Levante. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Georges Mikautadze, Petar Ratkov, Iván Romero", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 5-4-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Alberto Moleiro vs Enzo Bardeli). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 0.56. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank." }, "confidence": 0.57, "home_lambda": 1.677, "away_lambda": 1.73, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.0969, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3752, "draw": 0.2276, "away_win": 0.3972 }, "favorite": "Levante", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3972, "fair_spread": -0.053, "fair_total": 3.407, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 1.677, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Levante", "estimate": 1.73, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6616, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6697, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1773, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Levante", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1869, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.529, "probability": 0.4963, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Petar Ratkov (Levante)", "estimate": 0.4484, "probability": 0.5047, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Santiago Mouriño (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.1764, "probability": 0.0436, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Adrián de la Fuente (Levante)", "estimate": 0.1872, "probability": 0.0556, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.407, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 839, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.5, "possession_home_pct": 52.9, "possession_away_pct": 47.1, "notes": "Villarreal projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Levante", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3972, "script": "Levante is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.05 goals and fair total 3.41.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Villarreal must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Levante lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Levante chance creation leans on Petar Ratkov against Carlos Romero in Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank; Villarreal projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Villarreal: starters carry the main goal usage through Georges Mikautadze; bench watchlist: Nathan-Dylan Saliba, Tani Oluwaseyi, Nicolas Pépé.", "Levante: starters carry the main goal usage through Petar Ratkov, Iván Romero; bench watchlist: Kareem Tunde, Paco Cortés.", "Assist usage should flow through Tajon Buchanan, Enzo Bardeli; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Levante tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.70 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Villarreal is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Levante.", "Villarreal wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Villarreal": { "formation": "5-4-1", "players": { "Luiz Júnior": { "player_id": 1066603, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 192, "market_value": 12400000, "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.6207, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 27, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 2.0301, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "expected_saves": 1.19, "high_pressure_saves": 0.45, "shots_faced": 2.5, "opponent_faced": "Petar Ratkov, Iván Romero", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416324.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "ball_recovery": 4, "goals_prevented": -1.7728 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.2317 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 25, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -1.1323 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061.0, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.6088 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2073, "combined_rank_score": 790.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 339.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9929, "sofascore_appearances": 28.0, "fifa_rank": 1241.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.6207, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Luiz Júnior", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kim Jong-Seok", "ranking": 2068 }, { "player_name": "Ariel Cáceres", "ranking": 2069 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Zelarayán", "ranking": 2070 }, { "player_name": "Šime Gržan", "ranking": 2071 }, { "player_name": "Kaku", "ranking": 2072 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Maximiliano Rodríguez", "ranking": 2074 }, { "player_name": "Abbos Gulomov", "ranking": 2075 }, { "player_name": "Chan-dong Lee", "ranking": 2076 }, { "player_name": "Leonardo Spinazzola", "ranking": 2077 }, { "player_name": "Toni Martínez", "ranking": 2078 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0151, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 3 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.5224, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 26, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 2.0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 5.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 5.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 1.6522, "touches": 25.95, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 18.8855, "punches": 0.0, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9702, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.4595 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.440355062484741, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9806, "items": [ { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.2345 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.1158 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0583 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0532 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0312 } ], "others": -0.1096, "total": 2.4404 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.0, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0536, "items": [ { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.1812 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1478 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0706 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0446 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0411 } ], "others": -0.0843, "total": -0.6232 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.522439479827881, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0716, "items": [ { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.1839 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0877 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0726 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0597 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0461 } ], "others": -0.0992, "total": 6.5224 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0151, quality 0.550)", "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.6207, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 27, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 2.0301, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 12400000, "quality_factor": 0.5502, "boost_factor": 1.0151 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.6207, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 27, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 2.0301, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.6207, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 27, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 2.0301, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "expected_saves": 1.19, "high_pressure_saves": 0.45, "shots_faced": 2.5, "opponent_faced": "Petar Ratkov, Iván Romero", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Petar Ratkov, Iván Romero", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context" } } }, 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25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.395, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.73, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9626, "xg_scale": 1.7972, "scoreline_reset": true }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0282, "after": 0.0507 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17, fifa_overall 68.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0507, "goal_rate": 0.0317, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.395, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6208, "fifa_rank": 8132.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 1.73, "expected_assists": 0.65, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 355, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 9, "avg_rating": 6.83, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Georges Mikautadze", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Axel Tape", "Ifeanyi Ndukwe" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.473, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.264, "xg_contribution": 0.2243, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Axel Tape", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736 }, { "player": "Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736 } ], "duel_analysis": "Georges Mikautadze (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Axel Tape and Ifeanyi Ndukwe in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€32M vs €6M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.224 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Tajon Buchanan", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 13000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.557, "defenders": [ "Adrián de la Fuente" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.528, "xg_contribution": 0.1165, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrián de la Fuente", "role": "RB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.472 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tajon Buchanan (LM) is slightly favored against Adrián de la Fuente in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. Projected xG contribution: 0.116 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ilias Akhomach", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 11100000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.535, "defenders": [ "Manuel Sánchez" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.479, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.469, "xg_contribution": 0.0678, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Manuel Sánchez", "role": "LB", "market_value": 6400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.531 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ilias Akhomach (RM) is evenly matched against Manuel Sánchez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.068 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Carlos Romero", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Petar Ratkov" ], "defender_roles": [ "RW" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.503, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.462, "xg_contribution": 0.1026, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Petar Ratkov", "role": "RW", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.538 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Romero (LWB) is evenly matched against Petar Ratkov in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €8M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.103 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Pau Navarro", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 14600000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.575, "defenders": [ "Iván Romero" ], "defender_roles": [ "LW" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.491, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.53, "xg_contribution": 0.022, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iván Romero", "role": "LW", "market_value": 7400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.47 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pau Navarro (RWB) is slightly favored against Iván Romero in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. Projected xG contribution: 0.022 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Alberto Moleiro", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "Enzo Bardeli" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.472, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.584, "xg_contribution": 0.0951, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Enzo Bardeli", "role": "CM", "market_value": 5800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.416 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alberto Moleiro (CM) is slightly favored against Enzo Bardeli in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 58%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €6M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.095 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Iván Romero", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 7400000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.491, "defenders": [ "Pau Navarro" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.575, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.35, "xg_contribution": 0.2004, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pau Navarro", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.65 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iván Romero (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Pau Navarro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. Projected xG contribution: 0.200 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Petar Ratkov", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 8400000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.503, "defenders": [ "Carlos Romero" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.418, "xg_contribution": 0.2495, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Romero", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.582 } ], "duel_analysis": "Petar Ratkov (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Carlos Romero in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €24M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.250 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Etta Eyong", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 15600000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.586, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga", "Santiago Mouriño" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.668, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0805, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Santiago Mouriño", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Etta Eyong (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Renato Veiga and Santiago Mouriño in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.081 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Enzo Bardeli", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 5800000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.472, "defenders": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.256, "xg_contribution": 0.0342, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "role": "CM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.744 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enzo Bardeli (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alberto Moleiro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€6M vs €54M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.034 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.701, "away_midfield_power": 0.463, "home_creative_power": 0.679, "away_creative_power": 0.394, "home_defensive_power": 0.557, "away_defensive_power": 0.394, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.602, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Alberto Moleiro", "Pape Gueye", "Tajon Buchanan", "Ilias Akhomach" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Enzo Bardeli", "Hugo Sotelo", "Thiago Fernández" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 47.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.9, "home_throughball_threat": 2.6, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Alberto Moleiro vs Enzo Bardeli", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.041, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.966 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "5-4-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.02, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.02, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 5-4-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.677, "away_lambda": 1.73, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Georges Mikautadze": { "opponents": [ "Axel Tape", "Ifeanyi Ndukwe" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Tajon Buchanan": { "opponents": [ "Adrián de la Fuente", "Hugo Sotelo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ilias Akhomach": { "opponents": [ "Manuel Sánchez", "Thiago Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Carlos Romero": { "opponents": [ "Petar Ratkov" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel" }, "Pau Navarro": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel" }, "Alberto Moleiro": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Bardeli", "Thiago Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Renato Veiga": { "opponents": [ "Etta Eyong" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Santiago Mouriño": { "opponents": [ "Etta Eyong" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pape Gueye": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Bardeli" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Luiz Júnior": { "opponents": [ "Petar Ratkov", "Iván Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Logan Costa": { "opponents": [ "Etta Eyong" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Axel Tape": { "opponents": [ "Georges Mikautadze" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ifeanyi Ndukwe": { "opponents": [ "Georges Mikautadze" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Adrián de la Fuente": { "opponents": [ "Tajon Buchanan" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Manuel Sánchez": { "opponents": [ "Ilias Akhomach" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Petar Ratkov": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Iván Romero": { "opponents": [ "Pau Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Winger — Tracking Run Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Enzo Bardeli": { "opponents": [ "Alberto Moleiro", "Pape Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Etta Eyong": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga", "Santiago Mouriño" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Thiago Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Alberto Moleiro", "Ilias Akhomach" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Hugo Sotelo": { "opponents": [ "Tajon Buchanan" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Mathew Ryan": { "opponents": [ "Georges Mikautadze", "Pape Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Alberto Moleiro vs Enzo Bardeli). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 0.56. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0173, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9644, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1427, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.107, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9854, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9206, "home_midfield_factor": 1.041, "away_midfield_factor": 0.966, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.659, "away_avg_quality": 0.4848, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1742, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.1927, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.2022, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.0318, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.33, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1815, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1056, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0492, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0594, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Villarreal", "away_squad": "Levante UD", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.649, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.642, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.33, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0875, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.977, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.542, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.097, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "smooth_softplus", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.677, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.072, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.5419, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.0973, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.677, "final_away_lambda": 1.73 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 17, "opponent_position": 11, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1048, "attack_index": 1.249, "defense_concede_index": 1.041, "form_multiplier": 0.962, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 0.5, "opponent_ppg": 1.25 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 11, "opponent_position": 17, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.2612, "attack_index": 1.041, "defense_concede_index": 1.666, "form_multiplier": 1.038, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.0, "team_ppg": 1.25, "opponent_ppg": 0.5 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Villarreal vs Levante. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 5-4-1 vs 4-3-3 (duel lambdas: Home 1.542, Away 1.097). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.677, Away 1.730 (most likely score 1-2).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 10, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 8, "away_fbref_players": 0, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Villarreal", "away_squad": "Levante UD", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.649, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.642, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.677, "away_lambda": 1.73, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.542, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.097 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-20T13:31:03Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 95.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 8.0 } }