{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Liverpool", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260920", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1016, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Liverpool", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2494, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1016 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1183 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0944 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0825 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0719 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0647, "0-1": 0.1016, "0-2": 0.0825, "0-3": 0.0442, "0-4": 0.0178, "0-5": 0.0057, "0-6": 0.0015, "1-0": 0.0719, "1-1": 0.1183, "1-2": 0.0944, "1-3": 0.0506, "1-4": 0.0204, "1-5": 0.0066, "1-6": 0.0018, "2-0": 0.0417, "2-1": 0.0671, "2-2": 0.054, "2-3": 0.029, "2-4": 0.0116, "2-5": 0.0037, "2-6": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0159, "3-1": 0.0256, "3-2": 0.0206, "3-3": 0.011, "3-4": 0.0044, "3-5": 0.0014, "4-0": 0.0045, "4-1": 0.0073, "4-2": 0.0059, "4-3": 0.0032, "4-4": 0.0013, "5-0": 0.001, "5-1": 0.0017, "5-2": 0.0013, "5-3": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.27, "draw": 0.2494, "away_win": 0.4806 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5193, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4807, "btts_yes": 0.5461, "btts_no": 0.4539, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2001, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3185 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.13, "MCR": 7.37, "ATR": 7.34, "GK": 7.49 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.29, "MCR": 7.7, "ATR": 7.79, "GK": 7.1 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Bournemouth vs Liverpool. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Alexander Isak", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Rayan vs Florian Wirtz will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.78, Away: 0.82. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.58, "home_lambda": 1.144, "away_lambda": 1.609, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1183, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.27, "draw": 0.2494, "away_win": 0.4806 }, "favorite": "Liverpool", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4806, "fair_spread": -0.465, "fair_total": 2.753, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Bournemouth", "estimate": 1.144, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Liverpool", "estimate": 1.609, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5193, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5461, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Bournemouth", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2001, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Liverpool", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3185, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Eli Junior Kroupi (Bournemouth)", "estimate": 0.3359, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Hugo Ekitiké (Liverpool)", "estimate": 0.4389, "probability": 0.2749, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "James Hill (Bournemouth)", "estimate": 0.2626, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Hugo Ekitiké (Liverpool)", "estimate": 0.143, "probability": 0.1123, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.753, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 870, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.8, "possession_home_pct": 48.5, "possession_away_pct": 51.5, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Liverpool", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4806, "script": "Liverpool is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.47 goals and fair total 2.75.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Bournemouth must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Liverpool lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Liverpool chance creation leans on Alexander Isak against António Silva, James Hill in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Bournemouth: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Veljko Milosavljević, Amine Adli, Álvaro Rodriguez.", "Liverpool: starters carry the main goal usage through Alexander Isak; bench watchlist: Cody Gakpo, Víctor Muñoz, Rio Ngumoha.", "Assist usage should flow through Dominik Szoboszlai; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Liverpool tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.38 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Bournemouth is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Liverpool.", "Bournemouth wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Bournemouth": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Đorđe Petrović": { "player_id": 882604, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 194, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2027, "rating": 7.4857, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 48, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 1.4138, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 14.1698, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.5, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 6.0, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 75.0, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "expected_saves": 1.72, "high_pressure_saves": 0.66, "shots_faced": 3.7, "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363640.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17.0, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668.0, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Brentford", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363637.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 20, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "goals_prevented": -0.325 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363247.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.4062 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363243.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.6772 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1125, "combined_rank_score": 505.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 122.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.4, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 889.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.4857, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Đorđe Petrović", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Tornike Dzebniauri", "ranking": 1120 }, { "player_name": "Ho-in Lee", "ranking": 1121 }, { "player_name": "Kim Min-jae", "ranking": 1122 }, { "player_name": "Hak-min Lee", "ranking": 1123 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin White", "ranking": 1124 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mathew Ryan", "ranking": 1126 }, { "player_name": "Johan Manzambi", "ranking": 1127 }, { "player_name": "Rasul Yuldashev", "ranking": 1128 }, { "player_name": "Muhammad Yuldashev", "ranking": 1129 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Morales", "ranking": 1130 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.457, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.063, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Bournemouth", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Bournemouth, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.1907, "rating": 7.042, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 18, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 45, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 1.33, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 13.33, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.3304, "touches": 44.4004, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 17.5355, "punches": 1.3304, "distribution_accuracy": 1.0, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.3304 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.4803595542907715, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9806, "items": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.1674 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.1134 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": -0.0856 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0466 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0312 } ], "others": -0.056, "total": 2.4804 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.19067685306072235, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0536, "items": [ { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.1078 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0438 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0398 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0377 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0294 } ], "others": 0.0734, "total": 0.1907 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.042025566101074, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0716, "items": [ { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.1036 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0864 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0768 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0655 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0434 } ], "others": 0.0521, "total": 7.042 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0630, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2027, "rating": 7.4857, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 48, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 1.4138, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 14.1698, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.063 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2027, "rating": 7.4857, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 48, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 1.4138, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 14.1698, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.5, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 6.0, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, 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"contribution": 0.0922 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0408 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0348 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "contribution": -0.0342 } ], "others": 0.1224, "total": 1.0773 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.11844384670257568, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0929, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0088 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.0057 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0046 } ], "others": 0.0244, "total": 0.1184 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.08930522948503494, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0956, "items": [ { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0027 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0027 } ], "others": -0.0055, "total": 0.0893 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.11978337913751602, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1087, "items": [ { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.0263 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0058 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0041 } ], "others": 0.0215, "total": 0.1198 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.822849750518799, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8318, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0897 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0202 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0175 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": 0.0359, "total": 6.8228 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1044, quality 0.848)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1308, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1323, "rating": 7.5348, "minutes": 92, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 27, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 14.721, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20, "total_progression": 74, "progressive_carries": 3 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 58000000, "quality_factor": 0.8478, "boost_factor": 1.1044 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 23.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "rating": 7.5348, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.8598, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.6 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.6, "appearance_probability": 0.573 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "rating": 7.5348, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.8598, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.6 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.61 (squad xG sum 1.4445, xG scale 1.1139)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0387, "rating": 7.5348, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.8598, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.6, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.645, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.609, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4445, "xg_scale": 1.1139, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0387, "rating": 7.5348, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.8598, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.6, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.645, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 292, "fifa_rank": 378.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.61, "expected_assists": 0.72, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 459, "interceptions": 4, "tackles": 9, "avg_rating": 7.56, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 9.0 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Rayan", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Jérémy Jacquet" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.845, "duel_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.397, "xg_contribution": 0.1268, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jérémy Jacquet", "role": "CB", "market_value": 57000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.603 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rayan (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Jérémy Jacquet in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.127 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Alex Scott", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 53000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.834, "defenders": [ "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.408, "xg_contribution": 0.1107, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alexis Mac Allister", "role": "CM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.592 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alex Scott (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Alexis Mac Allister in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. The quality gap is significant (€53M vs €77M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.111 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Tyler Adams", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.329, "xg_contribution": 0.0484, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alexis Mac Allister", "role": "CM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.671 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tyler Adams (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Alexis Mac Allister in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €77M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.048 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Justin Kluivert", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Jérémy Jacquet" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.845, "duel_zone": "RM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.28, "xg_contribution": 0.0765, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jérémy Jacquet", "role": "CB", "market_value": 57000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.72 } ], "duel_analysis": "Justin Kluivert (RM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jérémy Jacquet in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €57M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.077 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Eli Junior Kroupi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 72000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.873, "defenders": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Miloš Kerkez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.802, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.206, "xg_contribution": 0.2678, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jérémy Jacquet", "role": "CB", "market_value": 57000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.794 }, { "player": "Miloš Kerkez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.794 } ], "duel_analysis": "Eli Junior Kroupi (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jérémy Jacquet and Miloš Kerkez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€72M vs €46M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.268 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Evanilson", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 33000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.739, "defenders": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Miloš Kerkez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.802, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1543, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jérémy Jacquet", "role": "CB", "market_value": 57000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Miloš Kerkez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Evanilson (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jérémy Jacquet and Miloš Kerkez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.154 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Alexander Isak", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 88000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.888, "defenders": [ "António Silva", "James Hill" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.681, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.323, "xg_contribution": 0.3916, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "António Silva", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.677 }, { "player": "James Hill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.677 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alexander Isak (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against António Silva and James Hill in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€88M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.392 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Bradley Barcola", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 87000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.887, "defenders": [ "António Silva", "Alex Scott" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.764, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.333, "xg_contribution": 0.1326, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "António Silva", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.667 }, { "player": "Alex Scott", "role": "CM", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.667 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bradley Barcola (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against António Silva and Alex Scott in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€87M vs €40M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.133 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Florian Wirtz", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 95000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.891, "defenders": [ "Bafodé Diakité" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.476, "xg_contribution": 0.1936, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bafodé Diakité", "role": "RB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.524 } ], "duel_analysis": "Florian Wirtz (LWB) is evenly matched against Bafodé Diakité in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. The quality gap is significant (€95M vs €23M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.194 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ryan Gravenberch", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 87000000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.887, "defenders": [ "Adrien Truffert" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.702, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.539, "xg_contribution": 0.0591, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrien Truffert", "role": "LB", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.461 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ryan Gravenberch (RWB) is slightly favored against Adrien Truffert in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. The quality gap is significant (€87M vs €28M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Alexis Mac Allister", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 77000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.879, "defenders": [ "Alex Scott" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.834, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.432, "xg_contribution": 0.0432, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alex Scott", "role": "CM", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.568 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alexis Mac Allister (CM) is evenly matched against Alex Scott in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. The quality gap is significant (€77M vs €53M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.784, "away_midfield_power": 0.912, "home_creative_power": 0.708, "away_creative_power": 0.756, "home_defensive_power": 0.624, "away_defensive_power": 0.82, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.462, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Rayan", "Alex Scott", "Tyler Adams", "Justin Kluivert" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Florian Wirtz", "Dominik Szoboszlai", "Ryan Gravenberch", "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 9.0, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.0, "home_throughball_threat": 2.7, "away_throughball_threat": 2.9, "key_personal_duel": "Rayan vs Florian Wirtz", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.987, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.015 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.04, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.144, "away_lambda": 1.609, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Rayan": { "opponents": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Florian Wirtz" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alex Scott": { "opponents": [ "Alexis Mac Allister", "Bradley Barcola" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tyler Adams": { "opponents": [ "Alexis Mac Allister", "Dominik Szoboszlai" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Justin Kluivert": { "opponents": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Ryan Gravenberch" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Eli Junior Kroupi": { "opponents": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Miloš Kerkez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Evanilson": { "opponents": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Miloš Kerkez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "António Silva": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Isak", "Bradley Barcola" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "James Hill": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Isak" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Bafodé Diakité": { "opponents": [ "Florian Wirtz" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Adrien Truffert": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Gravenberch" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Đorđe Petrović": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Ekitiké", "Alexander Isak" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jérémy Jacquet": { "opponents": [ "Rayan", "Justin Kluivert", "Eli Junior Kroupi", "Evanilson" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alexis Mac Allister": { "opponents": [ "Alex Scott", "Tyler Adams" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Miloš Kerkez": { "opponents": [ "Eli Junior Kroupi", "Evanilson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alexander Isak": { "opponents": [ "António Silva", "James Hill" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bradley Barcola": { "opponents": [ "António Silva", "Alex Scott" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Florian Wirtz": { "opponents": [ "Bafodé Diakité", "Rayan" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ryan Gravenberch": { "opponents": [ "Adrien Truffert", "Justin Kluivert" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dominik Szoboszlai": { "opponents": [ "Tyler Adams" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Giorgi Mamardashvili": { "opponents": [ "Eli Junior Kroupi", "Evanilson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jeremie Frimpong": { "opponents": [ "Eli Junior Kroupi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Hugo Ekitiké": { "opponents": [ "Adrien Truffert", "James Hill" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Rayan vs Florian Wirtz will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.78, Away: 0.82. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0632, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8952, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9112, "home_midfield_factor": 0.987, "away_midfield_factor": 1.015, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7373, "away_avg_quality": 0.8563, "avg_quality_gap": -0.119, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.6731, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.5895, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.7963, "elite_count_gap": -5, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2646, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1455, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0847, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0693, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0936, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Bournemouth", "away_squad": "Liverpool FC", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.144, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.609, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1444, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.6092, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.144, "final_away_lambda": 1.609 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 15, "opponent_position": 6, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1332, "attack_index": 1.666, "defense_concede_index": 0.833, "form_multiplier": 0.954, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.0, "team_ppg": 0.67, "opponent_ppg": 1.67 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 6, "opponent_position": 15, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.4995, "attack_index": 1.249, "defense_concede_index": 2.082, "form_multiplier": 1.046, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.5, "team_ppg": 1.67, "opponent_ppg": 0.67 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Bournemouth vs Liverpool. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-4-2 vs 3-4-2-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.144, Away 1.609). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.144, Away 1.609 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 9, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 9, "away_fbref_players": 0, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Bournemouth", "away_squad": "Liverpool FC", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.144, "away_lambda": 1.609, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.144, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.609 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-19T13:32:17Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 95.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 8.0 } }