{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260920", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1277, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Getafe", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2849, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1277 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1326 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1035 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1032 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0828 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1035, "0-1": 0.1032, "0-2": 0.0532, "0-3": 0.0181, "0-4": 0.0046, "0-5": 0.0009, "1-0": 0.1277, "1-1": 0.1326, "1-2": 0.067, "1-3": 0.0228, "1-4": 0.0058, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0812, "2-1": 0.0828, "2-2": 0.0422, "2-3": 0.0144, "2-4": 0.0037, "2-5": 0.0007, "3-0": 0.0341, "3-1": 0.0348, "3-2": 0.0177, "3-3": 0.006, "3-4": 0.0015, "4-0": 0.0107, "4-1": 0.011, "4-2": 0.0056, "4-3": 0.0019, "5-0": 0.0027, "5-1": 0.0028, "5-2": 0.0014, "6-0": 0.0006, "6-1": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4169, "draw": 0.2849, "away_win": 0.2982 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3987, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6013, "btts_yes": 0.4592, "btts_no": 0.5408, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2837 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 5.98, "MCR": 6.8, "ATR": 6.89, "GK": 6.99 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.72, "MCR": 6.7, "ATR": 6.85, "GK": 7.13 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Getafe vs Málaga. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Martín Satriano", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Mario Martín vs Jens-Lys Cajuste will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.25, Away: 0.57. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.57, "home_lambda": 1.26, "away_lambda": 1.02, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1326, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4169, "draw": 0.2849, "away_win": 0.2982 }, "favorite": "Getafe", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4169, "fair_spread": 0.24, "fair_total": 2.28, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Getafe", "estimate": 1.26, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Málaga", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3987, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4592, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Getafe", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Málaga", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2837, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Martín Satriano (Getafe)", "estimate": 0.3737, "probability": 0.3, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Chupete (Málaga)", "estimate": 0.2662, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Christantus Uche (Getafe)", "estimate": 0.098, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "David Larrubia (Málaga)", "estimate": 0.1054, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.28, "expected_total_shots": 29, "expected_total_passes": 609, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.6, "possession_home_pct": 50.1, "possession_away_pct": 49.9, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Getafe", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4169, "script": "Getafe is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.24 goals and fair total 2.28.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Málaga must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Getafe lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Getafe chance creation leans on Martín Satriano against Adam Aznou in Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Getafe: starters carry the main goal usage through Martín Satriano; bench watchlist: Borja Mayoral, Nemanja Gudelj, Sebastián Boselli.", "Málaga: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Joaquín Muñoz, Julen Lobete, Eneko Jauregi.", "Assist usage should flow through the projected key-pass leaders; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Getafe tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.14 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Málaga is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Getafe.", "Málaga wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Getafe": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "David Soria": { "player_id": 604258, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 192, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.9851, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 32, "accurate_long_balls": 13, "touches": 42, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 18.6434, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.33, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 4.0, "cleanSheets": 0.3333, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.3333, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 66.7, "cleanSheetPct": 33.3, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "expected_saves": 1.19, "high_pressure_saves": 0.45, "shots_faced": 2.5, "opponent_faced": "Chupete, Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416326.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13 16:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416348.0, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.2135 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0075 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 1.2046 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 935, "combined_rank_score": 436.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 122.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.4, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 750.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.9851, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "David Soria", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Isco", "ranking": 930 }, { "player_name": "Karim Benzema", "ranking": 931 }, { "player_name": "Julen Agirrezabala", "ranking": 932 }, { "player_name": "Koen Casteels", "ranking": 933 }, { "player_name": "Danilo Pereira", "ranking": 934 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jasurbek Jaloliddinov", "ranking": 936 }, { "player_name": "Kalidou Koulibaly", "ranking": 937 }, { "player_name": "Dragan Ceran", "ranking": 938 }, { "player_name": "Benjamín Berríos", "ranking": 939 }, { "player_name": "Golib Gaybullaev", "ranking": 940 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.467, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.467, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Getafe, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.1188, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 32, "accurate_long_balls": 13, "touches": 43, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 19.0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 8.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.3304, "touches": 42.9524, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 9.9242, "punches": 0.7191, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8768, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.1056785583496094, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9806, "items": [ { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.3633 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0796 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0732 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0544 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.047 } ], "others": -0.078, "total": 3.1057 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.0, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0536, "items": [ { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0387 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0316 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0285 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0251 } ], "others": 0.0002, "total": -0.044 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.118755340576172, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0716, "items": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0794 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0758 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0656 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0436 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0322 } ], "others": -0.0106, "total": 7.1188 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.9851, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 32, "accurate_long_balls": 13, "touches": 42, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 18.6434, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0813)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.9851, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 32, "accurate_long_balls": 13, "touches": 42, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 18.6434, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.33, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 4.0, "cleanSheets": 0.3333, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.3333, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 66.7, "cleanSheetPct": 33.3, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -1.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0813, "history_matches": 3, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0542 }, { "stat": "saves", 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"scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0165, "rating": 6.6825, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.7966, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4788, "fifa_rank": 5029.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.63, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 318, "interceptions": 4, "tackles": 12, "avg_rating": 6.77, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ramón Terrats", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Juan Cruz" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.421, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.428, "xg_contribution": 0.1701, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Juan Cruz", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.572 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ramón Terrats (LWB) is evenly matched against Juan Cruz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.170 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Mario Martín", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "David Larrubia" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.466, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.499, "xg_contribution": 0.1029, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "David Larrubia", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.501 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mario Martín (CM) is evenly matched against David Larrubia in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Projected xG contribution: 0.103 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Orel Mangala", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 8600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.506, "defenders": [ "David Larrubia" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.466, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.492, "xg_contribution": 0.0396, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "David Larrubia", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.508 } ], "duel_analysis": "Orel Mangala (CM) is evenly matched against David Larrubia in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Projected xG contribution: 0.040 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Francho Serrano", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Izan Merino" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.424, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.391, "xg_contribution": 0.0439, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Izan Merino", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.609 } ], "duel_analysis": "Francho Serrano (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Izan Merino in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Martín Satriano", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 10600000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.529, "defenders": [ "Adam Aznou" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.477, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.51, "xg_contribution": 0.3721, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adam Aznou", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.49 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martín Satriano (SS) is slightly favored against Adam Aznou in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. Projected xG contribution: 0.372 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Enes Ünal", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 6800000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.484, "defenders": [ "Adam Aznou" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.477, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.481, "xg_contribution": 0.3004, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adam Aznou", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.519 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enes Ünal (SS) is evenly matched against Adam Aznou in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.300 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Christantus Uche", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 13200000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.559, "defenders": [ "Adam Aznou", "Fernando Calero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.452, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.286, "xg_contribution": 0.2187, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adam Aznou", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.714 }, { "player": "Fernando Calero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.714 } ], "duel_analysis": "Christantus Uche (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Adam Aznou and Fernando Calero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 29%. Projected xG contribution: 0.219 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Izan Merino", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.424, "defenders": [ "Francho Serrano" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.449, "xg_contribution": 0.0359, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Francho Serrano", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.551 } ], "duel_analysis": "Izan Merino (LWB) is evenly matched against Francho Serrano in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.036 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 6600000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.482, "defenders": [ "Mario Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.531, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.442, "xg_contribution": 0.0463, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mario Martín", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.558 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jens-Lys Cajuste (CM) is evenly matched against Mario Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.046 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Martínez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Mario Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.531, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.399, "xg_contribution": 0.0349, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mario Martín", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.601 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Martínez (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Mario Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Juan Cruz", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.421, "defenders": [ "Ramón Terrats" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.44, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.412, "xg_contribution": 0.078, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ramón Terrats", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.588 } ], "duel_analysis": "Juan Cruz (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Ramón Terrats in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.078 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Chupete", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Andrés García", "Zaid Romero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.455, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.224, "xg_contribution": 0.2243, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrés García", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776 }, { "player": "Zaid Romero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chupete (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Andrés García and Zaid Romero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Projected xG contribution: 0.224 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Adrián Niño", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.424, "defenders": [ "Andrés García", "Zaid Romero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.455, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1457, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrés García", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Zaid Romero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Adrián Niño (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Andrés García and Zaid Romero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.504, "away_midfield_power": 0.496, "home_creative_power": 0.407, "away_creative_power": 0.375, "home_defensive_power": 0.407, "away_defensive_power": 0.407, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.504, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Mario Martín", "Orel Mangala", "Ramón Terrats", "Francho Serrano" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "David Larrubia", "Pablo Martínez", "Izan Merino", "Juan Cruz" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 1.7, "key_personal_duel": "Mario Martín vs Jens-Lys Cajuste", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.001, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.996 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.02, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.02, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.26, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Ramón Terrats": { "opponents": [ "Juan Cruz", "Pablo Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mario Martín": { "opponents": [ "David Larrubia", "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "Pablo Martínez", "Juan Cruz" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Orel Mangala": { "opponents": [ "David Larrubia", "Jens-Lys Cajuste" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Francho Serrano": { "opponents": [ "Izan Merino" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Martín Satriano": { "opponents": [ "Adam Aznou" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Enes Ünal": { "opponents": [ "Adam Aznou" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Christantus Uche": { "opponents": [ "Adam Aznou", "Fernando Calero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Andrés García": { "opponents": [ "Chupete", "Adrián Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Zaid Romero": { "opponents": [ "Chupete", "Adrián Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "David Soria": { "opponents": [ "Chupete", "Adrián Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Abdel Abqar": { "opponents": [ "Chupete" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Juan Cruz": { "opponents": [ "Ramón Terrats", "Mario Martín" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "David Larrubia": { "opponents": [ "Mario Martín", "Orel Mangala" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Izan Merino": { "opponents": [ "Francho Serrano" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Adam Aznou": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano", "Enes Ünal", "Christantus Uche" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Fernando Calero": { "opponents": [ "Christantus Uche" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jens-Lys Cajuste": { "opponents": [ "Mario Martín", "Orel Mangala" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Mario Martín", "Ramón Terrats" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Chupete": { "opponents": [ "Andrés García", "Zaid Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Adrián Niño": { "opponents": [ "Andrés García", "Zaid Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alfonso Herrero": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano", "Enes Ünal" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jose Salinas": { "opponents": [ "Christantus Uche" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Mario Martín vs Jens-Lys Cajuste will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.25, Away: 0.57. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0238, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0122, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.159, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.021, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0098, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0168, "home_midfield_factor": 1.001, "away_midfield_factor": 0.996, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.484, "away_avg_quality": 0.4511, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0328, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.4241, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.3574, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.4742, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0853, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0469, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0273, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0644, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0666, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Getafe", "away_squad": "Málaga CF", "home_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.2, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.2, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.26, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.65, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.2595, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.5988, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.26, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 15, "opponent_position": 18, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8288, "attack_index": 0.416, "defense_concede_index": 1.458, "form_multiplier": 1.028, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.75, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.5 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 18, "opponent_position": 15, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.6345, "attack_index": 0.208, "defense_concede_index": 1.041, "form_multiplier": 0.972, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 0.5, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Getafe vs Málaga. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-4-2-1 vs 3-5-2 (duel lambdas: Home 1.260, Away 0.599). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.260, Away 1.020 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 10, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 8, "away_fbref_players": 0, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Getafe", "away_squad": "Málaga CF", "home_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.2, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.2, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.26, "away_lambda": 1.02, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.26, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.599 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-19T13:31:56Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 95.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 8.0 } }