{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Man Utd", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260920", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-3", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 3, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0817, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Man Utd", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1397, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-3", "probability": 0.0817 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0815 }, { "score": "0-3", "probability": 0.0711 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0709 }, { "score": "1-4", "probability": 0.0614 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0159, "0-1": 0.047, "0-2": 0.0709, "0-3": 0.0711, "0-4": 0.0534, "0-5": 0.0321, "0-6": 0.0161, "0-7": 0.0069, "0-8": 0.0026, "0-9": 0.0009, "1-0": 0.0178, "1-1": 0.0545, "1-2": 0.0815, "1-3": 0.0817, "1-4": 0.0614, "1-5": 0.0369, "1-6": 0.0185, "1-7": 0.0079, "1-8": 0.003, "1-9": 0.001, "2-0": 0.0104, "2-1": 0.0312, "2-2": 0.0468, "2-3": 0.0469, "2-4": 0.0353, "2-5": 0.0212, "2-6": 0.0106, "2-7": 0.0046, "2-8": 0.0017, "2-9": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.004, "3-1": 0.0119, "3-2": 0.0179, "3-3": 0.018, "3-4": 0.0135, "3-5": 0.0081, "3-6": 0.0041, "3-7": 0.0017, "3-8": 0.0007, "4-0": 0.0011, "4-1": 0.0034, "4-2": 0.0052, "4-3": 0.0052, "4-4": 0.0039, "4-5": 0.0023, "4-6": 0.0012, "4-7": 0.0005, "5-1": 0.0008, "5-2": 0.0012, "5-3": 0.0012, "5-4": 0.0009, "5-5": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.1135, "draw": 0.1397, "away_win": 0.7468 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.7835, "under_2_5_goals": 0.2165, "btts_yes": 0.6494, "btts_no": 0.3506, "home_clean_sheet": 0.0495, "away_clean_sheet": 0.317 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.19, "MCR": 7.33, "ATR": 6.75, "GK": 6.7 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.3, "MCR": 7.68, "ATR": 7.64, "GK": 7.38 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Fulham vs Man Utd. Most likely scoreline: 1-3. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 7 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Gonzalo García, Matheus Cunha, Benjamin Šeško, Bryan Mbeumo", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Hugo Larsson vs Kobbie Mainoo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.61, Away: 1.42. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat." }, "confidence": 0.66, "home_lambda": 1.149, "away_lambda": 3.006, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.1135, "draw": 0.1397, "away_win": 0.7468 }, "favorite": "Man Utd", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7468, "fair_spread": -1.857, "fair_total": 4.155, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Fulham", "estimate": 1.149, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Man Utd", "estimate": 3.006, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.7835, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6494, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Fulham", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0495, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Man Utd", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.317, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Joshua King (Fulham)", "estimate": 0.2207, "probability": 0.1207, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Bryan Mbeumo (Man Utd)", "estimate": 0.778, "probability": 0.6983, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Oscar Bobb (Fulham)", "estimate": 0.1505, "probability": 0.2354, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Carlos Baleba (Man Utd)", "estimate": 0.213, "probability": 0.2496, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 4.155, "expected_total_shots": 35, "expected_total_passes": 1023, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.9, "possession_home_pct": 48.9, "possession_away_pct": 51.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Man Utd", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7468, "script": "Man Utd is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -1.86 goals and fair total 4.16.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 18 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Fulham must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Man Utd lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Man Utd chance creation leans on Bryan Mbeumo against Calvin Bassey in Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Fulham: starters carry the main goal usage through Gonzalo García; bench watchlist: Ryan Sessegnon, Emile Smith Rowe, Jonah Kusi-Asare.", "Man Utd: starters carry the main goal usage through Matheus Cunha, Benjamin Šeško, Bryan Mbeumo; bench watchlist: Marcus Rashford, Joshua Zirkzee.", "Assist usage should flow through Oscar Bobb, Carlos Baleba; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Man Utd tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 18 total first-half shots, and 2.08 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Fulham is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Man Utd.", "Fulham wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Fulham": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Bernd Leno": { "player_id": 103335, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 190, "market_value": 5500000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0174, "rating": 6.7002, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 12, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 52, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 9.2413, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 5.0, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 60.0, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "expected_saves": 2.97, "high_pressure_saves": 1.13, "shots_faced": 6.4, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo, Matheus Cunha", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363264.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17.0, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668.0, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Liverpool", "away_team": "Fulham", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363269.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 39, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.4348 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 30, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.3319 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 34, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.9787 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1549, "combined_rank_score": 633.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 416.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9263, "sofascore_appearances": 38.0, "fifa_rank": 850.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.7002, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Bernd Leno", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alisher Salimov", "ranking": 1544 }, { "player_name": "Bu-Seong Jang", "ranking": 1545 }, { "player_name": "Her Dong-min", "ranking": 1546 }, { "player_name": "Filip Jørgensen", "ranking": 1547 }, { "player_name": "Olivier Boscagli", "ranking": 1548 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Fredrik Aursnes", "ranking": 1550 }, { "player_name": "Yuri Berchiche", "ranking": 1551 }, { "player_name": "Óscar Trejo", "ranking": 1552 }, { "player_name": "Han Jong-Mu", "ranking": 1553 }, { "player_name": "Eli Junior Kroupi", "ranking": 1554 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.457, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9905, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Fulham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Fulham, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0175, "rating": 6.7645, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 12, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 53, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 9.33, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.3887, "touches": 52.4772, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 32.829, "punches": 0.6113, "distribution_accuracy": 0.978, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.3887 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8224308490753174, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9806, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.1333 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0529 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.022 } ], "others": 0.0556, "total": 2.8224 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.017546117305755615, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0536, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1006 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0931 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.059 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0461 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0431 } ], "others": 0.0938, "total": 0.0175 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.764498233795166, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0716, "items": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0935 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0876 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0809 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.079 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.051 } ], "others": -0.0731, "total": 6.7645 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9905, quality 0.468)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0174, "rating": 6.7002, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 12, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 52, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 9.2413, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5500000, "quality_factor": 0.4683, "boost_factor": 0.9905 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 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0.49415266513824463, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0685 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.0584, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2905 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1305 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.071 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0591 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0455 } ], "others": -0.2006, "total": 0.4942 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.762368202209473, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": 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"projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.679, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.006, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6305, "xg_scale": 1.8436, "scoreline_reset": true }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.049, "after": 0.0903 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0903, "goal_rate": 0.1064, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 7.214, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 3.8351, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 32, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.619, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.61, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.679, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 471, "fifa_rank": 371.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } } ] }, "Joshua Zirkzee": { "player_id": 917007, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 193, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1621, "goal_rate": 0.0551, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.7547, "dispossessed": 1.3, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0673, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.679, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3218, "combined_rank_score": 1167.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 907.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5125, "sofascore_appearances": 24.0, "fifa_rank": 1427.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.2, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Joshua Zirkzee", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Benjamin Henrichs", "ranking": 3213 }, { "player_name": "Harvey Elliott", "ranking": 3214 }, { "player_name": "Azor Matusiwa", "ranking": 3215 }, { "player_name": "Eljif Elmas", "ranking": 3216 }, { "player_name": "Lazaros Rota", "ranking": 3217 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Camilo Vargas", "ranking": 3219 }, { "player_name": "Hugo Duro", "ranking": 3220 }, { "player_name": "Chris Führich", "ranking": 3221 }, { "player_name": "Lucien Agoumé", "ranking": 3222 }, { "player_name": "Maarten Vandevoordt", "ranking": 3223 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.09746860076133, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5953394818527877, "market_value_adjustment": 0.6408, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€21,000,000) scaled to 26.1 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position F (quality 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.303, "goal_rate": 0.19, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.11, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 24, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 46, "possession_lost": 9.5, "dispossessed": 1.3, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.232, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 23, "total_progression": 57, "progressive_carries": 6 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 26.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0879, "goal_rate": 0.0551, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.7547, "dispossessed": 1.3, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0673, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.1, "appearance_probability": 0.595 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0879, "goal_rate": 0.0551, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.7547, "dispossessed": 1.3, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0673, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.01 (squad xG sum 1.6305, xG scale 1.8436)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1621, "goal_rate": 0.0551, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.7547, "dispossessed": 1.3, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0673, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.679, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.006, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6305, "xg_scale": 1.8436, "scoreline_reset": true }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0879, "after": 0.1621 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1621, "goal_rate": 0.0551, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.7547, "dispossessed": 1.3, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0673, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.679, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3218, "fifa_rank": 1427.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 3, "expected_goals": 3.01, "expected_assists": 0.96, "total_shots": 19, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 540, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 9, "avg_rating": 7.54, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Kevin", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Youri Tielemans" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.796, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.367, "xg_contribution": 0.0484, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Youri Tielemans", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 43000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.633 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kevin (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Youri Tielemans in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €43M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.048 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Oscar Bobb", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Carlos Baleba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.834, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "xg_contribution": 0.1613, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Baleba", "role": "CM", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.663 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oscar Bobb (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Carlos Baleba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €53M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.161 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Hugo Larsson", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 30000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.718, "defenders": [ "Carlos Baleba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.834, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.4, "xg_contribution": 0.0787, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Baleba", "role": "CM", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.6 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hugo Larsson (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Carlos Baleba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. The quality gap is significant (€30M vs €53M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.079 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Sander Berge", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Kobbie Mainoo" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.873, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.38, "xg_contribution": 0.0376, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kobbie Mainoo", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 72000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.62 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sander Berge (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Kobbie Mainoo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €72M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.038 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Gonzalo García", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Lisandro Martínez", "Leny Yoro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.813, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1823, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lisandro Martínez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Leny Yoro", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gonzalo García (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Lisandro Martínez and Leny Yoro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€31M vs €47M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.182 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Rodrigo Muniz", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 22000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.65, "defenders": [ "Lisandro Martínez", "Leny Yoro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.813, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1066, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lisandro Martínez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Leny Yoro", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rodrigo Muniz (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Lisandro Martínez and Leny Yoro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€22M vs €47M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.107 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Kobbie Mainoo", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 72000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.873, "defenders": [ "Sander Berge" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.46, "xg_contribution": 0.0645, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sander Berge", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.54 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kobbie Mainoo (LWB) is evenly matched against Sander Berge in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. The quality gap is significant (€72M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.064 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Carlos Baleba", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 53000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.834, "defenders": [ "Joshua King" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.545, "xg_contribution": 0.1618, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Joshua King", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.455 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Baleba (CM) is slightly favored against Joshua King in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. The quality gap is significant (€53M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.162 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Amad Diallo", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Joshua King" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.505, "xg_contribution": 0.1482, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Joshua King", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.495 } ], "duel_analysis": "Amad Diallo (CM) is slightly favored against Joshua King in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.148 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Youri Tielemans", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Kevin" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.473, "xg_contribution": 0.0856, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kevin", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.527 } ], "duel_analysis": "Youri Tielemans (RWB) is evenly matched against Kevin in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.086 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Matheus Cunha", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 79000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.881, "defenders": [ "Calvin Bassey" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.71, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.523, "xg_contribution": 0.3303, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Calvin Bassey", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.477 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matheus Cunha (SS) is slightly favored against Calvin Bassey in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€79M vs €29M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.330 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Bryan Mbeumo", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 73000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.875, "defenders": [ "Calvin Bassey" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.71, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.476, "xg_contribution": 0.422, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Calvin Bassey", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.524 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bryan Mbeumo (SS) is evenly matched against Calvin Bassey in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. The quality gap is significant (€73M vs €29M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.422 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Benjamin Šeško", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 78000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.88, "defenders": [ "Calvin Bassey", "Antonee Robinson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.689, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.33, "xg_contribution": 0.2033, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Calvin Bassey", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.67 }, { "player": "Antonee Robinson", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.67 } ], "duel_analysis": "Benjamin Šeško (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Calvin Bassey and Antonee Robinson in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€78M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.203 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.744, "away_midfield_power": 0.851, "home_creative_power": 0.673, "away_creative_power": 0.825, "home_defensive_power": 0.592, "away_defensive_power": 0.709, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.466, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Hugo Larsson", "Oscar Bobb", "Kevin", "Sander Berge", "Joshua King" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Kobbie Mainoo", "Carlos Baleba", "Amad Diallo", "Youri Tielemans" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.4, "home_throughball_threat": 2.6, "away_throughball_threat": 3.1, "key_personal_duel": "Hugo Larsson vs Kobbie Mainoo", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.991, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.019 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.02, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.02, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.149, "away_lambda": 3.006, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Kevin": { "opponents": [ "Youri Tielemans" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Oscar Bobb": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Baleba", "Amad Diallo" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hugo Larsson": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Baleba", "Kobbie Mainoo" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sander Berge": { "opponents": [ "Kobbie Mainoo", "Carlos Baleba" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gonzalo García": { "opponents": [ "Lisandro Martínez", "Leny Yoro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Rodrigo Muniz": { "opponents": [ "Lisandro Martínez", "Leny Yoro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Joshua King": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Baleba", "Amad Diallo" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Calvin Bassey": { "opponents": [ "Matheus Cunha", "Bryan Mbeumo", "Benjamin Šeško" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Antonee Robinson": { "opponents": [ "Benjamin Šeško" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Bernd Leno": { "opponents": [ "Matheus Cunha", "Bryan Mbeumo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Joachim Andersen": { "opponents": [ "Matheus Cunha" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Youri Tielemans": { "opponents": [ "Kevin" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Carlos Baleba": { "opponents": [ "Oscar Bobb", "Hugo Larsson", "Joshua King", "Sander Berge" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kobbie Mainoo": { "opponents": [ "Sander Berge", "Hugo Larsson" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lisandro Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García", "Rodrigo Muniz" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Leny Yoro": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García", "Rodrigo Muniz" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Amad Diallo": { "opponents": [ "Joshua King", "Oscar Bobb" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Matheus Cunha": { "opponents": [ "Calvin Bassey" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bryan Mbeumo": { "opponents": [ "Calvin Bassey" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Benjamin Šeško": { "opponents": [ "Calvin Bassey", "Antonee Robinson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Senne Lammens": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García", "Rodrigo Muniz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Ayden Heaven": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Hugo Larsson vs Kobbie Mainoo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.61, Away: 1.42. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8743, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.998, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0693, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8944, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9361, "home_midfield_factor": 0.991, "away_midfield_factor": 1.019, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6864, "away_avg_quality": 0.8297, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1433, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.7538, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.8695, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.8254, "elite_count_gap": -9, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3521, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1937, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1127, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1007, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.112, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Fulham", "away_squad": "Manchester United", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.5, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.852, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.3521, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.093, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9748, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.179, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 2.75, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1795, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 2.7497, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.149, "final_away_lambda": 3.006 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 19, "opponent_position": 11, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.3437, "attack_index": 1.666, "defense_concede_index": 1.249, "form_multiplier": 0.948, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.5, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.33 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 11, "opponent_position": 19, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.6504, "attack_index": 1.458, "defense_concede_index": 2.915, "form_multiplier": 1.052, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.75, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 3.5, "team_ppg": 1.33, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Fulham vs Man Utd. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-5-2 vs 3-4-2-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.179, Away 2.750). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.149, Away 3.006 (most likely score 1-3).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 9, "away_fbref_players": 0, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Fulham", "away_squad": "Manchester United", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.5, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.852, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.149, "away_lambda": 3.006, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.179, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 2.75 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-20T13:30:36Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 95.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 8.0 } }