{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Atl. Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260920", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-2", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0671, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Real Madrid", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1833, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0671 }, { "score": "2-2", "probability": 0.0669 }, { "score": "1-3", "probability": 0.0597 }, { "score": "2-3", "probability": 0.0595 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0507 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0098, "0-1": 0.0249, "0-2": 0.0337, "0-3": 0.0299, "0-4": 0.02, "0-5": 0.0106, "0-6": 0.0047, "0-7": 0.0018, "0-8": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.0185, "1-1": 0.0507, "1-2": 0.0671, "1-3": 0.0597, "1-4": 0.0398, "1-5": 0.0212, "1-6": 0.0094, "1-7": 0.0036, "1-8": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0188, "2-1": 0.0502, "2-2": 0.0669, "2-3": 0.0595, "2-4": 0.0397, "2-5": 0.0212, "2-6": 0.0094, "2-7": 0.0036, "2-8": 0.0012, "3-0": 0.0125, "3-1": 0.0333, "3-2": 0.0444, "3-3": 0.0395, "3-4": 0.0263, "3-5": 0.0141, "3-6": 0.0062, "3-7": 0.0024, "3-8": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.0062, "4-1": 0.0166, "4-2": 0.0221, "4-3": 0.0197, "4-4": 0.0131, "4-5": 0.007, "4-6": 0.0031, "4-7": 0.0012, "5-0": 0.0025, "5-1": 0.0066, "5-2": 0.0088, "5-3": 0.0078, "5-4": 0.0052, "5-5": 0.0028, "5-6": 0.0012, "6-0": 0.0008, "6-1": 0.0022, "6-2": 0.0029, "6-3": 0.0026, "6-4": 0.0017, "6-5": 0.0009, "7-1": 0.0006, "7-2": 0.0008, "7-3": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.289, "draw": 0.1833, "away_win": 0.5277 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.8436, "under_2_5_goals": 0.1564, "btts_yes": 0.804, "btts_no": 0.196, "home_clean_sheet": 0.0695, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1363 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.29, "MCR": 7.55, "ATR": 7.55, "GK": 7.15 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.46, "MCR": 7.71, "ATR": 8.01, "GK": 7.09 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Atl. Madrid vs Real Madrid. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 7 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Ademola Lookman, Kylian Mbappé (2)", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Pablo Barrios vs Jude Bellingham will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 1.44. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.62, "home_lambda": 1.993, "away_lambda": 2.667, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.289, "draw": 0.1833, "away_win": 0.5277 }, "favorite": "Real Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5277, "fair_spread": -0.674, "fair_total": 4.66, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Atl. Madrid", "estimate": 1.993, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Madrid", "estimate": 2.667, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.8436, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.804, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Atl. Madrid", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0695, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Madrid", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1363, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ademola Lookman (Atl. Madrid)", "estimate": 0.345, "probability": 0.332, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)", "estimate": 0.8979, "probability": 0.7604, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Pablo Barrios (Atl. Madrid)", "estimate": 0.1383, "probability": 0.1807, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Aurélien Tchouaméni (Real Madrid)", "estimate": 0.222, "probability": 0.2678, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 4.66, "expected_total_shots": 38, "expected_total_passes": 1020, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.7, "possession_home_pct": 49.3, "possession_away_pct": 50.7, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Real Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5277, "script": "Real Madrid is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.67 goals and fair total 4.66.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 19 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Atl. Madrid must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Real Madrid lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Madrid chance creation leans on Kylian Mbappé against Cristian Romero, Dávid Hancko in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Atl. Madrid: starters carry the main goal usage through Ademola Lookman; bench watchlist: Jonathan David, Marcos Llorente, Alejandro Grimaldo.", "Real Madrid: starters carry the main goal usage through Kylian Mbappé (2); bench watchlist: Eduardo Camavinga, Rodrygo, Endrick.", "Assist usage should flow through Pablo Barrios, Aurélien Tchouaméni; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Real Madrid tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 19 total first-half shots, and 2.33 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Atl. Madrid is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Real Madrid.", "Atl. Madrid wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Atl. Madrid": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Jan Oblak": { "player_id": 69768, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 189, "market_value": 16000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 7.1451, "minutes": 92, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 10, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 35, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 6.6755, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 4.0, "cleanSheets": 0.3333, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 75.0, "cleanSheetPct": 33.3, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 2.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.33, "expected_saves": 3.03, "high_pressure_saves": 1.15, "shots_faced": 6.5, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416332.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atl. Madrid", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 3.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Atl. Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416317.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -1.7703 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316.0, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 22, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.3214 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.9056 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055.0, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0174 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 121, "combined_rank_score": 112.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 180.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 45.0, "fifa_overall": 88.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.1451, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jan Oblak", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Viktor Gyökeres", "ranking": 116 }, { "player_name": "Matías Zaldivia", "ranking": 117 }, { "player_name": "Adrián de la Fuente", "ranking": 118 }, { "player_name": "Jaylan Hankins", "ranking": 119 }, { "player_name": "Marquinhos", "ranking": 120 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Morgan Rogers", "ranking": 122 }, { "player_name": "Joan García", "ranking": 123 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Henrique", "ranking": 124 }, { "player_name": "Jung Seung-bae", "ranking": 125 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Badolato", "ranking": 126 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.53, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.53, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.027, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Atlético Madrid, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.9573, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 10, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 34, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 6.5, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 5.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.1927, "touches": 33.7555, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 21.5975, "punches": 0.0, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8811, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.1927 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8820736408233643, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9806, "items": [ { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.1135 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.1074 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0508 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0444 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0304 } ], "others": 0.021, "total": 2.8821 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.0, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0536, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.049 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0484 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0332 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0318 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0255 } ], "others": -0.0384, "total": -0.0685 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9572906494140625, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0716, "items": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0831 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0679 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0482 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", 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"trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 4, "trained_at": "2026-09-20T13:11:10.419138+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 461, "rows": 1422 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0, "ballRecovery_p90": 10.1531, "progressiveBallCarriesCount": 0.4595, "expectedAssists": 0.0379, "ballRecovery": 3.8672 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6073847413063049, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0319 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9691, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0716 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0241 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0203 } ], "others": -0.0825, "total": 0.6074 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.038720887154340744, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0714 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "accurateCross", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0345 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0929, "items": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0088, "total": 0.0387 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07132162898778915, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0956, "items": [ { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0067 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0054 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0028 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0018 } ], "others": -0.0091, "total": 0.0713 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.02432066760957241, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0622 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0384 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1087, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.005 } ], "others": -0.0219, "total": 0.0243 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2240554392337799, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0617 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0328 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3324, "items": [ { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0343 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0456, "total": 0.2241 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4697732627391815, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0685 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0518 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.0584, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1973 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1316 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.1283 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0498 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0461 } ], "others": -0.2921, "total": 0.4698 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.780580997467041, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "kilometersCovered", "importance": 0.0597 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0441 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8318, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0664 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0336 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0141 } ], "others": -0.0064, "total": 6.7806 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0950, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0424, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0266, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.4251, "minutes": 48, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 37, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 48, "possession_lost": 4.654, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 38, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.095 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0313)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0424, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0266, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 7.4251, "minutes": 48, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 37, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 48, "possession_lost": 4.654, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 38, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.7692, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 42.2, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 4.74 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0313, "history_matches": 4, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0722 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0482 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.3688, "after": 1.3982 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5145, "after": 0.4984 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2454, "after": 0.2377 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 17.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0051, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 7.4251, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.8874, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.7692, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 42.2, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 4.74, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 17.16, "appearance_probability": 0.594 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0051, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 7.4251, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.8874, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.7692, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 42.2, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 4.74, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.67 (squad xG sum 1.6223, xG scale 1.6440)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0084, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 7.4251, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.8874, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.7692, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 42.2, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 4.74, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.618, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.667, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6223, "xg_scale": 1.644, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0084, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 7.4251, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.8874, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.7692, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 42.2, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 4.74, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.594, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.16, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.618, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 956, "fifa_rank": 578.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.67, "expected_assists": 1.24, "total_shots": 22, "shots_on_target": 8, "total_passes": 527, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 8, "avg_rating": 7.67, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Giuliano Simeone", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Arda Güler" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.887, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.369, "xg_contribution": 0.0895, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Arda Güler", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 87000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.631 } ], "duel_analysis": "Giuliano Simeone (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Arda Güler in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €87M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.089 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Alex Baena", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.875, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.328, "xg_contribution": 0.105, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "role": "CM", "market_value": 73000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.672 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alex Baena (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Aurélien Tchouaméni in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €73M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.105 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Barrios", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 60000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.853, "defenders": [ "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.875, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.382, "xg_contribution": 0.064, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "role": "CM", "market_value": 73000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.618 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Barrios (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Aurélien Tchouaméni in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.064 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Kang-in Lee", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 30000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.718, "defenders": [ "Federico Valverde" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.887, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.312, "xg_contribution": 0.079, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Federico Valverde", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 87000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.688 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kang-in Lee (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Federico Valverde in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€30M vs €87M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.079 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Julián Alvarez", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 116000000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Trent Alexander-Arnold" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.861, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0962, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.9, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dean Huijsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Trent Alexander-Arnold", "role": "CB", "market_value": 62000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Julián Alvarez (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dean Huijsen and Trent Alexander-Arnold in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€116M vs €64M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.096 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ademola Lookman", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Trent Alexander-Arnold" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.861, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1969, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dean Huijsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Trent Alexander-Arnold", "role": "CB", "market_value": 62000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ademola Lookman (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dean Huijsen and Trent Alexander-Arnold in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €64M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.197 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Federico Valverde", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 87000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.887, "defenders": [ "Kang-in Lee" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.718, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.528, "xg_contribution": 0.0627, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kang-in Lee", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 30000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.472 } ], "duel_analysis": "Federico Valverde (LWB) is slightly favored against Kang-in Lee in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. The quality gap is significant (€87M vs €30M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 73000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.875, "defenders": [ "Morten Hjulmand" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.488, "xg_contribution": 0.1558, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Morten Hjulmand", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.512 } ], "duel_analysis": "Aurélien Tchouaméni (CM) is evenly matched against Morten Hjulmand in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. The quality gap is significant (€73M vs €48M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.156 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jude Bellingham", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 151000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Morten Hjulmand" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.499, "xg_contribution": 0.1539, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Morten Hjulmand", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.501 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jude Bellingham (CM) is evenly matched against Morten Hjulmand in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€151M vs €48M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.154 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Arda Güler", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 87000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.887, "defenders": [ "Giuliano Simeone" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.8, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.471, "xg_contribution": 0.0822, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giuliano Simeone", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.529 } ], "duel_analysis": "Arda Güler (RWB) is evenly matched against Giuliano Simeone in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€87M vs €44M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.082 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Vinícius Júnior", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 146000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Cristian Romero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.809, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.455, "xg_contribution": 0.3143, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Cristian Romero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.545 } ], "duel_analysis": "Vinícius Júnior (SS) is evenly matched against Cristian Romero in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. The quality gap is significant (€146M vs €46M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.314 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Yan Diomande", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 99000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.893, "defenders": [ "Cristian Romero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.809, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.468, "xg_contribution": 0.1284, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Cristian Romero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.532 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yan Diomande (SS) is evenly matched against Cristian Romero in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€99M vs €46M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.128 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Kylian Mbappé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 212000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Cristian Romero", "Dávid Hancko" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.784, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.226, "xg_contribution": 0.5462, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Cristian Romero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.774 }, { "player": "Dávid Hancko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.774 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kylian Mbappé (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Cristian Romero and Dávid Hancko in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€212M vs €41M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.546 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.847, "away_midfield_power": 0.912, "home_creative_power": 0.776, "away_creative_power": 0.954, "home_defensive_power": 0.661, "away_defensive_power": 0.754, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.481, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Pablo Barrios", "Morten Hjulmand", "Giuliano Simeone", "Alex Baena", "Kang-in Lee" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Jude Bellingham", "Federico Valverde", "Arda Güler", "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.2, "away_key_passes_projected": 7.2, "home_throughball_threat": 2.9, "away_throughball_threat": 3.5, "key_personal_duel": "Pablo Barrios vs Jude Bellingham", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.997, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.017 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.02, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.02, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.993, "away_lambda": 2.667, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Giuliano Simeone": { "opponents": [ "Arda Güler" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alex Baena": { "opponents": [ "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "Jude Bellingham" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo Barrios": { "opponents": [ "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "Federico Valverde" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kang-in Lee": { "opponents": [ "Federico Valverde", "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Julián Alvarez": { "opponents": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Trent Alexander-Arnold" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ademola Lookman": { "opponents": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Trent Alexander-Arnold" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Morten Hjulmand": { "opponents": [ "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "Jude Bellingham" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Cristian Romero": { "opponents": [ "Vinícius Júnior", "Yan Diomande", "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dávid Hancko": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jan Oblak": { "opponents": [ "Vinícius Júnior", "Yan Diomande" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Marc Pubill": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Arda Güler": { "opponents": [ "Giuliano Simeone" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Aurélien Tchouaméni": { "opponents": [ "Alex Baena", "Pablo Barrios", "Morten Hjulmand", "Kang-in Lee" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Federico Valverde": { "opponents": [ "Kang-in Lee", "Pablo Barrios" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dean Huijsen": { "opponents": [ "Julián Alvarez", "Ademola Lookman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Trent Alexander-Arnold": { "opponents": [ "Julián Alvarez", "Ademola Lookman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jude Bellingham": { "opponents": [ "Morten Hjulmand", "Alex Baena" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Vinícius Júnior": { "opponents": [ "Cristian Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yan Diomande": { "opponents": [ "Cristian Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kylian Mbappé": { "opponents": [ "Cristian Romero", "Dávid Hancko" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Thibaut Courtois": { "opponents": [ "Julián Alvarez", "Ademola Lookman" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Marc Cucurella": { "opponents": [ "Julián Alvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Pablo Barrios vs Jude Bellingham will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 1.44. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9548, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9481, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1334, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1354, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8778, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9037, "home_midfield_factor": 0.997, "away_midfield_factor": 1.017, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7986, "away_avg_quality": 0.8819, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0833, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.7269, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.7775, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.7838, "elite_count_gap": -3, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2139, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1177, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0685, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1447, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1595, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Atlético Madrid", "away_squad": "Real Madrid", "home_goals_per90": 2.333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.33, "away_goals_per90": 3.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "smooth_softplus", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.531, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 2.667, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.5312, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 2.6674, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.993, "final_away_lambda": 2.667 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 6, "opponent_position": 3, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9578, "attack_index": 1.458, "defense_concede_index": 0.625, "form_multiplier": 0.972, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.75, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.75, "team_ppg": 1.75, "opponent_ppg": 2.25 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 3, "opponent_position": 6, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.4959, "attack_index": 2.082, "defense_concede_index": 1.249, "form_multiplier": 1.028, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.5, "team_ppg": 2.25, "opponent_ppg": 1.75 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Atl. Madrid vs Real Madrid. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-5-2 vs 3-4-2-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.531, Away 2.667). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.993, Away 2.667 (most likely score 1-2).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 10, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Atlético Madrid", "away_squad": "Real Madrid", "home_goals_per90": 2.333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.33, "away_goals_per90": 3.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.993, "away_lambda": 2.667, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.531, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 2.667 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-20T13:30:38Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 95.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 8.0 } }