{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260920", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-3-2", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1339, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Valencia", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2594, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1339 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.122 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1033 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0928 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0888 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0888, "0-1": 0.0781, "0-2": 0.0355, "0-3": 0.0106, "0-4": 0.0024, "1-0": 0.1339, "1-1": 0.122, "1-2": 0.0544, "1-3": 0.0163, "1-4": 0.0037, "1-5": 0.0007, "2-0": 0.1033, "2-1": 0.0928, "2-2": 0.0417, "2-3": 0.0125, "2-4": 0.0028, "2-5": 0.0005, "3-0": 0.0528, "3-1": 0.0474, "3-2": 0.0213, "3-3": 0.0064, "3-4": 0.0014, "4-0": 0.0202, "4-1": 0.0182, "4-2": 0.0082, "4-3": 0.0024, "4-4": 0.0005, "5-0": 0.0062, "5-1": 0.0056, "5-2": 0.0025, "5-3": 0.0007, "6-0": 0.0016, "6-1": 0.0014, "6-2": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5208, "draw": 0.2594, "away_win": 0.2198 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4384, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5616, "btts_yes": 0.4656, "btts_no": 0.5344, "home_clean_sheet": 0.4074, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2159 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.71, "MCR": 6.99, "ATR": 6.89, "GK": 6.81 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.6, "MCR": 6.96, "ATR": 7.2, "GK": 7.12 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Valencia vs Real Sociedad. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Hugo Duro", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Javier Guerra vs Jon Gorrotxategi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.39, Away: 0.51. Home danger zone: CAM vs CM. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.61, "home_lambda": 1.533, "away_lambda": 0.898, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5208, "draw": 0.2594, "away_win": 0.2198 }, "favorite": "Valencia", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5208, "fair_spread": 0.635, "fair_total": 2.431, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Valencia", "estimate": 1.533, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Sociedad", "estimate": 0.898, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4384, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4656, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Valencia", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4074, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Sociedad", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2159, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Javier Guerra (Valencia)", "estimate": 0.3021, "probability": 0.1228, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Orri Óskarsson (Real Sociedad)", "estimate": 0.2861, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Diego López (Valencia)", "estimate": 0.144, "probability": 0.2712, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad)", "estimate": 0.0963, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.431, "expected_total_shots": 20, "expected_total_passes": 733, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.0, "possession_home_pct": 49.4, "possession_away_pct": 50.6, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Valencia", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5208, "script": "Valencia is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.64 goals and fair total 2.43.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Real Sociedad must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Valencia lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Sociedad chance creation leans on Mikel Oyarzabal against César Tárrega, Justin De Haas in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Valencia: starters carry the main goal usage through Hugo Duro; bench watchlist: André Almeida, Umar Sadiq.", "Real Sociedad: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Luka Sučić, Arsen Zakharyan, Gorka Carrera Zarranz.", "Assist usage should flow through Diego López; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Valencia tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 1.22 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Real Sociedad is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Valencia.", "Real Sociedad wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Valencia": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Stole Dimitrievski": { "player_id": 97951, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 188, "market_value": 2100000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.8132, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 16, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "touches": 41, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 14.7184, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.33, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 4.0, "cleanSheets": 0.3333, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 66.7, "cleanSheetPct": 33.3, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 0.33, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "expected_saves": 1.08, "high_pressure_saves": 0.41, "shots_faced": 2.3, "opponent_faced": "Mikel Oyarzabal, Sergio Gómez", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416330.0, "match_date": "2026-09-11 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Valencia", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416325.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.0829 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416291.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 21, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -2.2955 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049.0, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.4455 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0564 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2524, "combined_rank_score": 913.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 280.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.065, "sofascore_appearances": 20.0, "fifa_rank": 1546.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.8132, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Stole Dimitrievski", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Thiago Almada", "ranking": 2519 }, { "player_name": "Jacob Ramsey", "ranking": 2520 }, { "player_name": "Wilfried Singo", "ranking": 2521 }, { "player_name": "Noah Okafor", "ranking": 2522 }, { "player_name": "Noah Atubolu", "ranking": 2523 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Samuele Ricci", "ranking": 2525 }, { "player_name": "Yahir Salazar", "ranking": 2526 }, { "player_name": "Jae-hwan Lee", "ranking": 2527 }, { "player_name": "Yanis Lhéry", "ranking": 2528 }, { "player_name": "Thomas Kevin Aquilina", "ranking": 2529 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.53, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.53, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Valencia", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Valencia, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.9436, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 16, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "touches": 42, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 15.0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 1.9469, "touches": 42.9383, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 20.107, "punches": 0.0, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8187, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.9469 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.4564552307128906, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9806, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.2508 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.077 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0653 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0635 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0471 } ], "others": 0.1028, "total": 3.4565 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.0, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0536, "items": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.2656 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.162 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.076 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0592 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0301 } ], "others": -0.0433, "total": -0.6296 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9435625076293945, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0716, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.1041 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0983 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0894 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0854 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0845 } ], "others": -0.0453, "total": 6.9436 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.8132, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 16, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "touches": 41, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 14.7184, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2100000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0722)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 6.8132, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 16, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "touches": 41, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, 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"final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0903, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6061, "minutes": 31, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 2.1225, "dispossessed": 1.6442, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 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"total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4542, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3473, "combined_rank_score": 1464.0, 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"data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.519, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", 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"scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0802 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0397 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0579, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0077 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0023 } ], "others": -0.0125, "total": 0.022 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.46232953667640686, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0738 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0803 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0426 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0207 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0157 } ], "others": 0.0078, "total": 6.738 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0099, quality 0.533)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0723, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0928, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8047, "minutes": 76, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 7.4732, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10900000, "quality_factor": 0.533, "boost_factor": 1.0099 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0672)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0723, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0928, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8047, "minutes": 76, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 7.4732, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0217, "goals": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3226, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 28.6, "shotConversion": 0.14, "minutesPct": 78.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -0.95 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0672, "history_matches": 5, "prior_reliability": 0.2067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.13 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1511, "after": 1.2236 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.065 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0433 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0217 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0217 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4163, "after": 0.4313 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.1031, "after": 0.0962 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 26.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.41)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8047, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.2054, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0064, "goals": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 11, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3226, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 28.6, "shotConversion": 0.14, "minutesPct": 78.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.411, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.56 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.56, "appearance_probability": 0.411 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8047, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.2054, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0064, "goals": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 11, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3226, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 28.6, "shotConversion": 0.14, "minutesPct": 78.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.411, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.56 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.90 (squad xG sum 0.7564, xG scale 1.1872)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0325, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8047, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.2054, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0064, "goals": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 11, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3226, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 28.6, "shotConversion": 0.14, "minutesPct": 78.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.411, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.56, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.397, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.898, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7564, "xg_scale": 1.1872, "scoreline_reset": true }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0274, "after": 0.0325 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0325, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8047, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.2054, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0064, "goals": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 11, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3226, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 28.6, "shotConversion": 0.14, "minutesPct": 78.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.411, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.56, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.397, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3134, "fifa_rank": 1975.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9, "expected_assists": 0.45, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 322, "interceptions": 5, "tackles": 8, "avg_rating": 6.86, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Filip Ugrinić", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 5700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.471, "defenders": [ "Jon Aramburu", "Mamadou Sarr" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.618, "duel_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "xg_contribution": 0.0696, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Aramburu", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 13900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766 }, { "player": "Mamadou Sarr", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766 } ], "duel_analysis": "Filip Ugrinić (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jon Aramburu and Mamadou Sarr in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Projected xG contribution: 0.070 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Diego López", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 9600000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.518, "defenders": [ "Sergio Gómez", "Mamadou Sarr" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.622, "duel_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.211, "xg_contribution": 0.0635, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sergio Gómez", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789 }, { "player": "Mamadou Sarr", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789 } ], "duel_analysis": "Diego López (RW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Sergio Gómez and Mamadou Sarr in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Projected xG contribution: 0.064 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Javier Guerra", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Jon Gorrotxategi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.456, "xg_contribution": 0.1144, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "role": "CM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.544 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javier Guerra (CAM) is evenly matched against Jon Gorrotxategi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.114 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Hugo Duro", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 11600000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.541, "defenders": [ "Mamadou Sarr", "Hector Fort" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.605, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0844, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mamadou Sarr", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Hector Fort", "role": "CB", "market_value": 11600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hugo Duro (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Mamadou Sarr and Hector Fort in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.084 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Harvey Elliott", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Ander Barrenetxea" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.603, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.421, "xg_contribution": 0.0581, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ander Barrenetxea", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 17200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.579 } ], "duel_analysis": "Harvey Elliott (CDM) is evenly matched against Ander Barrenetxea in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.058 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "César Tárrega", "Justin De Haas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.505, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.239, "xg_contribution": 0.1962, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "César Tárrega", "role": "CB", "market_value": 9300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.761 }, { "player": "Justin De Haas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.761 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mikel Oyarzabal (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against César Tárrega and Justin De Haas in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €8M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.196 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Sergio Gómez", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 14600000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.575, "defenders": [ "José Copete" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.456, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.393, "xg_contribution": 0.0838, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "José Copete", "role": "RB", "market_value": 4500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.607 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Gómez (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against José Copete in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.084 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jon Aramburu", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 13900000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.567, "defenders": [ "Arnau Martínez" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.532, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.396, "xg_contribution": 0.0834, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Arnau Martínez", "role": "LB", "market_value": 10800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.604 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Aramburu (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Arnau Martínez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.083 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ander Barrenetxea", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 17200000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.603, "defenders": [ "Harvey Elliott" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.419, "xg_contribution": 0.0779, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Harvey Elliott", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.581 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ander Barrenetxea (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Harvey Elliott in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.078 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Harvey Elliott" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.502, "xg_contribution": 0.0722, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Harvey Elliott", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.498 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Gorrotxategi (CM) is slightly favored against Harvey Elliott in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Projected xG contribution: 0.072 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.611, "away_midfield_power": 0.646, "home_creative_power": 0.508, "away_creative_power": 0.549, "home_defensive_power": 0.486, "away_defensive_power": 0.549, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.486, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Javier Guerra", "Harvey Elliott", "Diego López", "Pepelu", "Filip Ugrinić" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Jon Gorrotxategi", "Takefusa Kubo", "Ander Barrenetxea" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.8, "home_throughball_threat": 2.1, "away_throughball_threat": 2.2, "key_personal_duel": "Javier Guerra vs Jon Gorrotxategi", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.994, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.007 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-3-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.533, "away_lambda": 0.898, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "CAM vs CM", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Filip Ugrinić": { "opponents": [ "Jon Aramburu", "Mamadou Sarr", "Ander Barrenetxea" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Diego López": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Gómez", "Mamadou Sarr", "Jon Gorrotxategi" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Javier Guerra": { "opponents": [ "Jon Gorrotxategi", "Ander Barrenetxea" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hugo Duro": { "opponents": [ "Mamadou Sarr", "Hector Fort" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Harvey Elliott": { "opponents": [ "Ander Barrenetxea", "Jon Gorrotxategi" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "César Tárrega": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Justin De Haas": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "José Copete": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Arnau Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Jon Aramburu" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pepelu": { "opponents": [ "Takefusa Kubo" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Stole Dimitrievski": { "opponents": [ "Orri Óskarsson", "Mikel Oyarzabal" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jon Aramburu": { "opponents": [ "Filip Ugrinić", "Arnau Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Mamadou Sarr": { "opponents": [ "Filip Ugrinić", "Diego López", "Hugo Duro" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Sergio Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Diego López", "José Copete" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Jon Gorrotxategi": { "opponents": [ "Javier Guerra", "Harvey Elliott", "Diego López" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hector Fort": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Duro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ander Barrenetxea": { "opponents": [ "Harvey Elliott", "Javier Guerra", "Filip Ugrinić" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mikel Oyarzabal": { "opponents": [ "César Tárrega", "Justin De Haas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Takefusa Kubo": { "opponents": [ "Pepelu" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Álex Remiro": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Duro", "Pepelu" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jon Martin": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Duro" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Orri Óskarsson": { "opponents": [ "Arnau Martínez", "César Tárrega" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Javier Guerra vs Jon Gorrotxategi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.39, Away: 0.51. Home danger zone: CAM vs CM. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9777, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0152, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.153, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.082, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9396, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9852, "home_midfield_factor": 0.994, "away_midfield_factor": 1.007, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5344, "away_avg_quality": 0.6292, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0949, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.537, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.4017, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.3008, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.149, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.082, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0477, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.056, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0638, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Valencia", "away_squad": "Real Sociedad", "home_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.75, "away_goals_per90": 0.75, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.2, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.2, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "smooth_softplus", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.65, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.898, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.5906, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.8985, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.533, "final_away_lambda": 0.898 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 20, "opponent_position": 9, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.6302, "attack_index": 0.208, "defense_concede_index": 1.111, "form_multiplier": 0.951, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.33, "team_ppg": 0.25, "opponent_ppg": 1.4 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 9, "opponent_position": 20, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.2093, "attack_index": 0.833, "defense_concede_index": 1.874, "form_multiplier": 1.049, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.25, "team_ppg": 1.4, "opponent_ppg": 0.25 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Valencia vs Real Sociedad. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 5-3-2 (duel lambdas: Home 0.591, Away 0.898). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.533, Away 0.898 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 9, "home_fbref_players": 7, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Valencia", "away_squad": "Real Sociedad", "home_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.75, "away_goals_per90": 0.75, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.2, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.2, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.533, "away_lambda": 0.898, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.591, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.898 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": true } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-20T13:31:30Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 95.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 8.0 } }