{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Man City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260920", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-0", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0939, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Man City", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1598, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0939 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0923 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0815 }, { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0801 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0718 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.028, "0-1": 0.0269, "0-2": 0.0134, "0-3": 0.0044, "0-4": 0.0011, "1-0": 0.0718, "1-1": 0.0712, "1-2": 0.0348, "1-3": 0.0114, "1-4": 0.0028, "1-5": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.0939, "2-1": 0.0923, "2-2": 0.0454, "2-3": 0.0149, "2-4": 0.0037, "2-5": 0.0007, "3-0": 0.0815, "3-1": 0.0801, "3-2": 0.0394, "3-3": 0.0129, "3-4": 0.0032, "3-5": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0531, "4-1": 0.0522, "4-2": 0.0256, "4-3": 0.0084, "4-4": 0.0021, "5-0": 0.0276, "5-1": 0.0272, "5-2": 0.0133, "5-3": 0.0044, "5-4": 0.0011, "6-0": 0.012, "6-1": 0.0118, "6-2": 0.0058, "6-3": 0.0019, "7-0": 0.0045, "7-1": 0.0044, "7-2": 0.0022, "7-3": 0.0007, "8-0": 0.0015, "8-1": 0.0014, "8-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.7207, "draw": 0.1598, "away_win": 0.1195 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6948, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3052, "btts_yes": 0.5798, "btts_no": 0.4202, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3742, "away_clean_sheet": 0.074 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.53, "MCR": 7.9, "ATR": 8.19, "GK": 7.85 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.01, "MCR": 7.29, "ATR": 7.21, "GK": 7.74 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Man City vs Sunderland. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Erling Haaland (2)", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Elliot Anderson vs Noah Sadiki will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.09, Away: 0.49. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.66, "home_lambda": 2.604, "away_lambda": 0.983, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.7207, "draw": 0.1598, "away_win": 0.1195 }, "favorite": "Man City", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7207, "fair_spread": 1.621, "fair_total": 3.587, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Man City", "estimate": 2.604, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Sunderland", "estimate": 0.983, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6948, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5798, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Man City", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3742, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Sunderland", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.074, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Erling Haaland (Man City)", "estimate": 1.1519, "probability": 0.8888, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Brian Brobbey (Sunderland)", "estimate": 0.1855, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Rúben Dias (Man City)", "estimate": 0.2764, "probability": 0.0903, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Enzo Le Fée (Sunderland)", "estimate": 0.0955, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.587, "expected_total_shots": 33, "expected_total_passes": 981, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.4, "possession_home_pct": 51.5, "possession_away_pct": 48.5, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Man City", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7207, "script": "Man City is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.62 goals and fair total 3.59.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Sunderland must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Man City lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Man City chance creation leans on Erling Haaland against Daniel Ballard, Trai Hume in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Man City: starters carry the main goal usage through Erling Haaland (2); bench watchlist: Omar Marmoush, Matheus Nunes.", "Sunderland: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Chemsdine Talbi, Omar Alderete, Romaine Mundle.", "Assist usage should flow through Rayan Cherki, Antoine Semenyo; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Man City tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 1.79 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Sunderland is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Man City.", "Sunderland wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Man City": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Gianluigi Donnarumma": { "player_id": 824509, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 196, "market_value": 46000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2634, "rating": 7.8524, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 35, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 5.1027, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 3.0, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.5, "savePct": 66.7, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 2.0, "expected_saves": 1.02, "high_pressure_saves": 0.39, "shots_faced": 2.2, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey, Noah Sadiki", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363645.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13 15:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17.0, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668.0, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Man Utd", "away_team": "Man City", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Man City", "opponent": "Man Utd", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363263.0, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 1.7595 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.954 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363243.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.6972 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 141, "combined_rank_score": 128.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 229.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.15, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 27.0, "fifa_overall": 89.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.8524, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gianluigi Donnarumma", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ryan Fraser", "ranking": 136 }, { "player_name": "Fabrício Bruno", "ranking": 137 }, { "player_name": "Alisson", "ranking": 138 }, { "player_name": "Tasos Bakasetas", "ranking": 139 }, { "player_name": "Sang-Min Koo", "ranking": 140 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Samuel Lino", "ranking": 142 }, { "player_name": "Joško Gvardiol", "ranking": 143 }, { "player_name": "Victor Osimhen", "ranking": 144 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Catena", "ranking": 145 }, { "player_name": "Mashkhur Mukhammadzhonov", "ranking": 146 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.457, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.457, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0927, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Manchester City, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.241, "rating": 7.1865, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 32, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 4.67, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 3, "trained_at": "2026-09-15T10:01:40.064367+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 93, "players": 113, "rows": 393 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 8.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 8.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.3304, "touches": 31.2935, "totalOwnHalfPasses": 19.4597, "punches": 0.6696, "distribution_accuracy": 0.913, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.3304 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.615955352783203, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0534 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.049 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9806, "items": [ { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.1085 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0781 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0642 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0616 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0323 } ], "others": -0.0199, "total": 2.616 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.24101665616035461, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.053 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0536, "items": [ { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.1134 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1069 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0265 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.025 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.025 } ], "others": 0.0478, "total": 0.241 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.186513423919678, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0593 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0484 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0468 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0464 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0716, "items": [ { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.1083 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0882 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0523 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0431 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0415 } ], "others": -0.0309, "total": 7.1865 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0927, quality 0.809)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2634, "rating": 7.8524, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 35, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 5.1027, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 46000000, "quality_factor": 0.8089, "boost_factor": 1.0927 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2634, "rating": 7.8524, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 35, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 5.1027, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 3.0, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.5, "savePct": 66.7, 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"substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.137, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.983, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8793, "xg_scale": 1.1179, "scoreline_reset": true }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0635, "after": 0.071 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18, fifa_overall n/a)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.071, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.137, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing" } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.98, "expected_assists": 0.7, "total_shots": 20, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 284, "interceptions": 3, "tackles": 6, "avg_rating": 7.24, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Rayan Cherki", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 98000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.893, "defenders": [ "Chris Rigg" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.537, "xg_contribution": 0.1686, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Chris Rigg", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.463 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rayan Cherki (LW) is slightly favored against Chris Rigg in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. The quality gap is significant (€98M vs €24M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.169 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Antoine Semenyo", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 85000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.886, "defenders": [ "Malick Fofana" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.71, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.579, "xg_contribution": 0.2048, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Malick Fofana", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.421 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antoine Semenyo (RW) is slightly favored against Malick Fofana in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 58%. The quality gap is significant (€85M vs €29M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.205 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Enzo Fernández", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 97000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.892, "defenders": [ "Noah Sadiki", "Enzo Le Fée" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.391, "xg_contribution": 0.0818, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "role": "CM", "market_value": 37000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.609 }, { "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.609 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enzo Fernández (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Noah Sadiki and Enzo Le Fée in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€97M vs €32M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.082 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Erling Haaland", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 240000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Daniel Ballard", "Trai Hume" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.363, "xg_contribution": 0.528, "shots_in_zone": 2.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Daniel Ballard", "role": "CB", "market_value": 22000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.637 }, { "player": "Trai Hume", "role": "CB", "market_value": 20000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.637 } ], "duel_analysis": "Erling Haaland (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Daniel Ballard and Trai Hume in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 36%. The quality gap is significant (€240M vs €21M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.528 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Elliot Anderson", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 100000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.893, "defenders": [ "Noah Sadiki" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.764, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.482, "xg_contribution": 0.11, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "role": "CM", "market_value": 37000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.518 } ], "duel_analysis": "Elliot Anderson (CDM) is evenly matched against Noah Sadiki in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. The quality gap is significant (€100M vs €37M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.110 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Brian Brobbey", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 42000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.791, "defenders": [ "Nico O'Reilly", "Rúben Dias" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.865, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1659, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nico O'Reilly", "role": "CB", "market_value": 76000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Rúben Dias", "role": "CB", "market_value": 60000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brian Brobbey (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Nico O'Reilly and Rúben Dias in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€42M vs €68M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.166 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Malick Fofana", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 29000000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.71, "defenders": [ "Marc Guéhi" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.864, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.279, "xg_contribution": 0.065, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Guéhi", "role": "RB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.721 } ], "duel_analysis": "Malick Fofana (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Marc Guéhi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€29M vs €66M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.065 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Chris Rigg", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Joško Gvardiol" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.861, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.277, "xg_contribution": 0.0422, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Joško Gvardiol", "role": "LB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.723 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chris Rigg (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Joško Gvardiol in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €64M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.042 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Noah Sadiki", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Elliot Anderson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.893, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.368, "xg_contribution": 0.1128, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Elliot Anderson", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 100000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632 } ], "duel_analysis": "Noah Sadiki (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Elliot Anderson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€37M vs €100M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.113 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Enzo Le Fée", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Elliot Anderson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.893, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.303, "xg_contribution": 0.0996, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Elliot Anderson", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 100000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.697 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enzo Le Fée (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Elliot Anderson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €100M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.100 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.94, "away_midfield_power": 0.769, "home_creative_power": 0.971, "away_creative_power": 0.611, "home_defensive_power": 0.754, "away_defensive_power": 0.611, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.55, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Elliot Anderson", "Rayan Cherki", "Enzo Fernández", "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "Antoine Semenyo" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Noah Sadiki", "Habib Diarra", "Malick Fofana", "Enzo Le Fée", "Chris Rigg" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 7.3, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.2, "home_throughball_threat": 3.5, "away_throughball_threat": 2.4, "key_personal_duel": "Elliot Anderson vs Noah Sadiki", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.027, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.982 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.06, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.06, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.604, "away_lambda": 0.983, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Rayan Cherki": { "opponents": [ "Chris Rigg", "Malick Fofana" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Antoine Semenyo": { "opponents": [ "Malick Fofana", "Chris Rigg" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Enzo Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Noah Sadiki", "Enzo Le Fée" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Erling Haaland": { "opponents": [ "Daniel Ballard", "Trai Hume" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Elliot Anderson": { "opponents": [ "Noah Sadiki", "Enzo Le Fée" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nico O'Reilly": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Rúben Dias": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marc Guéhi": { "opponents": [ "Malick Fofana" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Joško Gvardiol": { "opponents": [ "Chris Rigg" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ayyoub Bouaddi": { "opponents": [ "Habib Diarra" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Gianluigi Donnarumma": { "opponents": [ "Wilson Isidor", "Brian Brobbey" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Chris Rigg": { "opponents": [ "Rayan Cherki", "Joško Gvardiol", "Antoine Semenyo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Malick Fofana": { "opponents": [ "Antoine Semenyo", "Marc Guéhi", "Rayan Cherki" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Noah Sadiki": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Fernández", "Elliot Anderson" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Enzo Le Fée": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Fernández", "Elliot Anderson" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Daniel Ballard": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Trai Hume": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Brian Brobbey": { "opponents": [ "Nico O'Reilly", "Rúben Dias" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Habib Diarra": { "opponents": [ "Ayyoub Bouaddi" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Robin Roefs": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland", "Ayyoub Bouaddi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Kevin Danso": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Wilson Isidor": { "opponents": [ "Nico O'Reilly", "Marc Guéhi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Elliot Anderson vs Noah Sadiki will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.09, Away: 0.49. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8584, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.082, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9417, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8471, "home_midfield_factor": 1.027, "away_midfield_factor": 0.982, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8807, "away_avg_quality": 0.6906, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1901, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.2385, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.2504, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.1657, "elite_count_gap": 9, "combined_quality_gap": 0.4508, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2479, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1443, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1121, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0834, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Manchester City", "away_squad": "Sunderland", "home_goals_per90": 3.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.222, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.222, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.4508, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1177, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9649, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 2.33, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.019, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.3296, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.0193, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 2.604, "final_away_lambda": 0.983 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 1, "opponent_position": 12, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.2908, "attack_index": 2.915, "defense_concede_index": 0.625, "form_multiplier": 1.056, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 3.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.75, "team_ppg": 3.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.33 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 12, "opponent_position": 1, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.7659, "attack_index": 0.625, "defense_concede_index": 0.833, "form_multiplier": 0.944, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.75, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.0, "team_ppg": 1.33, "opponent_ppg": 3.0 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Man City vs Sunderland. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 3-5-2 (duel lambdas: Home 2.330, Away 1.019). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 2.604, Away 0.983 (most likely score 2-0).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Manchester City", "away_squad": "Sunderland", "home_goals_per90": 3.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.222, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.222, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 2.604, "away_lambda": 0.983, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 2.33, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.019 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-19T13:32:44Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 95.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 8.0 } }