{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Málaga", "away_team": "Espanyol", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261009", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1561, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Espanyol", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2664, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1561 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1209 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.1159 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1071 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0887 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1071, "0-1": 0.1561, "0-2": 0.1159, "0-3": 0.0571, "0-4": 0.0211, "0-5": 0.0062, "0-6": 0.0015, "1-0": 0.0805, "1-1": 0.1209, "1-2": 0.0887, "1-3": 0.0436, "1-4": 0.0161, "1-5": 0.0048, "1-6": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0311, "2-1": 0.0459, "2-2": 0.0339, "2-3": 0.0167, "2-4": 0.0062, "2-5": 0.0018, "3-0": 0.0079, "3-1": 0.0117, "3-2": 0.0086, "3-3": 0.0043, "3-4": 0.0016, "4-0": 0.0015, "4-1": 0.0022, "4-2": 0.0017, "4-3": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.1931, "draw": 0.2664, "away_win": 0.5405 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3885, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6115, "btts_yes": 0.4134, "btts_no": 0.5866, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2283, "away_clean_sheet": 0.4653 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.78, "MCR": 6.85, "ATR": 6.75, "GK": 7.1 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.76, "MCR": 6.84, "ATR": 6.89, "GK": 7.09 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Málaga vs Espanyol. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Roberto Fernández", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — David Larrubia vs Gabriel Moscardo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 1.24. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.74, "home_lambda": 0.765, "away_lambda": 1.477, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.1931, "draw": 0.2664, "away_win": 0.5405 }, "favorite": "Espanyol", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5405, "fair_spread": -0.712, "fair_total": 2.242, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Málaga", "estimate": 0.765, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Espanyol", "estimate": 1.477, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3885, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4134, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Málaga", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2283, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Espanyol", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4653, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Chupete (Málaga)", "estimate": 0.306, "probability": 0.2636, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Roberto Fernández (Espanyol)", "estimate": 0.4701, "probability": 0.3751, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Pablo Martínez (Málaga)", "estimate": 0.1309, "probability": 0.1227, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Edu Expósito (Espanyol)", "estimate": 0.168, "probability": 0.1546, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.242, "expected_total_shots": 25, "expected_total_passes": 765, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.4, "possession_home_pct": 50.0, "possession_away_pct": 50.0, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Espanyol", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5405, "script": "Espanyol is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.71 goals and fair total 2.24.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Málaga must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Espanyol lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Espanyol chance creation leans on Roberto Fernández against Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Málaga: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Jens-Lys Cajuste, Adrián Niño, Juan Cruz.", "Espanyol: starters carry the main goal usage through Roberto Fernández; bench watchlist: Javi Puado, Cyril Ngonge.", "Assist usage should flow through Javier Hernández; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Espanyol tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.12 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Málaga is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Espanyol.", "Málaga wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Málaga": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Carlos Puga": { "player_id": 1164708, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 175, "market_value": 825000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.755, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 27, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 12.2223, "dispossessed": 0.9849, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0034, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Marcos Fernández", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0034, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0229, "finishing_factor": 0.9346, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416338, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0048, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416320, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0155, "expected_assists": 0.0737, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 51, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0244, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2198, "combined_rank_score": 1041.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 822.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1260.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.755, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Carlos Puga", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jun-gyu Ahn", "ranking": 2193 }, { "player_name": "Khazrat Tursunkulov", "ranking": 2194 }, { "player_name": "Ferslev Anders Klynge", "ranking": 2195 }, { "player_name": "Kim Do-Yoon", "ranking": 2196 }, { "player_name": "Solly March", "ranking": 2197 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Everton Galdino", "ranking": 2199 }, { "player_name": "Bektemir Abdumannonov", "ranking": 2200 }, { "player_name": "Darwin Machís", "ranking": 2201 }, { "player_name": "Freddy Góndola", "ranking": 2202 }, { "player_name": "Joseph Mora", "ranking": 2203 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.625, "history_matches": 6, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 6, "data_confidence": 0.625, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9908, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 6 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0322, "tackles": 2.5008, "tackles_won": 1.4991, "clearances": 2.116, "aerial_won": 0.6538, "total_shots": 0.4618, "rating": 6.755, "minutes": 79.21, "total_pass": 33.7603, "accurate_pass": 26.885, "duels_won": 7.2092, "total_long_balls": 1.5991, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4194, "total_own_half_passes": 12.8949, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.948, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.8654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.937, "crosses_total": 0.4535, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.765, "possession_lost": 12.3358, "dispossessed": 0.994, "duels_lost": 6.176, "aerial_lost": 0.4935, "total_contest": 2.6062, "won_contest": 1.8729, "ball_recovery": 2.5321, "challenges_lost": 1.6075, "fouls": 2.3478, "fouls_drawn": 1.2398, "blocks": 1.0871, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0035, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0526, "total_progression": 63.5838, "progressive_carries": 1.6331, "key_pass": 0.5065, "shots_off_target": 0.4618 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-09T10:03:23.701438+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2408, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2047, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.174, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 2.0926, "aerialWon": 0.3477, "totalClearance_p90": 3.632, "totalTackle": 2.7702, "totalPass": 26.3358 }, "per_target": [ { 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"progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.027529 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.020253 } ], "others_margin": 0.019488 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 2.500807285308838, "model_output": 2.5008, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2209 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.1801 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.1576 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.114 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.1012 } ], "others": 0.3331, "total": 2.5008, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.147113 }, { 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"margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.141326 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.087594 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.076092 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.075478 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.049786 } ], "others_margin": 0.132032 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.1160166263580322, "model_output": 2.116, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.5704 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4049 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.328 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2551 }, { "name": 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-0.1173 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0533 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0251 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0152 } ], "others": -0.0019, "total": 0.4618, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.117297 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.0533 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.025104 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.016349 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.015233 } ], "others_margin": -0.002048 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7549896240234375, "model_output": 6.755, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0559 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0501, "total": 6.755, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.055939 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.018252 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.016876 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012828 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.012144 } ], "others_margin": -0.050271 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his 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], "others_margin": 0.061684 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.154351830482483, "model_output": 1.1544, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.238 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1413 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0769 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0757 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0752 } ], "others": 0.0124, "total": 1.1544, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.238048 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.141315 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.076914 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.075673 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.075169 } ], "others_margin": 0.012279 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7988200187683105, "model_output": 6.7988, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0413 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0367 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0331 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0241 } ], "others": -0.0603, "total": 6.7988, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.041255 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.036668 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033125 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.031031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.024054 } ], "others_margin": -0.060339 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"total_contest": 6.5007, "won_contest": 1.9576, "challenges_lost": 1.8658, "fouls": 1.1264, "fouls_drawn": 1.1284, "blocks": 0.1064, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0077, "ball_carries": 17.8137, "total_progression": 121.6144, "progressive_carries": 3.9837, "shots_off_target": 0.7632 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5300000, "quality_factor": 0.4659, "boost_factor": 0.9951, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0433)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2838, "expected_assists": 0.114, "assists": 0.0883, "assist_rate": 0.0883, "expected_goals": 0.0871, "goals": 0.1246, "goal_rate": 0.1246, "shots_on_target": 0.4047, "total_shots": 1.2245, "rating": 6.7988, "minutes": 89.0, "total_pass": 28.2013, "accurate_pass": 23.1821, "duels_won": 5.4037, "total_long_balls": 1.6391, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2883, 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17.0995, "crosses_total": 0.5013, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.9019, "possession_lost": 15.6451, "dispossessed": 1.892, "duels_lost": 9.508, "aerial_won": 0.2396, "aerial_lost": 0.3203, "interceptions": 0.7911, "tackles_won": 1.1148, "tackles": 2.0781, "clearances": 0.2396, "total_contest": 6.5007, "won_contest": 1.9576, "challenges_lost": 1.8658, "fouls": 1.0954, "fouls_drawn": 1.1152, "blocks": 0.1064, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0077, "ball_carries": 17.8137, "total_progression": 121.6144, "progressive_carries": 3.9837, "shots_off_target": 0.7632 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2838, "expected_assists": 0.114, "assists": 0.0883, "assist_rate": 0.0883, "expected_goals": 0.0784, "goals": 0.1122, "goal_rate": 0.1122, "shots_on_target": 0.3643, "total_shots": 1.1022, "rating": 6.7988, "minutes": 89.0, "total_pass": 28.2013, "accurate_pass": 23.1821, "duels_won": 5.4037, "total_long_balls": 1.6391, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2883, "total_own_half_passes": 7.7742, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0827, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4272, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0995, "crosses_total": 0.5013, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.9019, "possession_lost": 15.6451, "dispossessed": 1.892, "duels_lost": 9.508, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.3203, "interceptions": 0.7911, "tackles_won": 1.1148, "tackles": 2.0781, "clearances": 0.2396, "total_contest": 6.5007, "won_contest": 1.9576, "challenges_lost": 1.8658, "fouls": 1.0954, "fouls_drawn": 1.1152, "blocks": 0.1064, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0069, "ball_carries": 17.8137, "total_progression": 121.6144, "progressive_carries": 3.9837, "shots_off_target": 0.687, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9001, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.382, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Gabriel Moscardo", "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Moscardo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Moscardo", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.382, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9001, "skill_edge": -0.016, "height_edge": -0.052, "attacker_skill": 0.4731, "defender_skill": 0.5085, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Gabriel Moscardo", "market_value": 7500000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.5085 } ], "xg_override": 0.0784 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.2396, 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"duels_won": 5.4037, "total_long_balls": 1.6391, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2883, "total_own_half_passes": 7.7742, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0827, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4272, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0995, "crosses_total": 0.5013, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.9019, "possession_lost": 15.6451, "dispossessed": 1.892, "duels_lost": 9.508, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.3203, "interceptions": 0.7911, "tackles_won": 1.1148, "tackles": 2.0781, "clearances": 0.2396, "total_contest": 6.5007, "won_contest": 1.9576, "challenges_lost": 1.8658, "fouls": 1.0954, "fouls_drawn": 1.1152, "blocks": 0.1064, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0067, "ball_carries": 17.8137, "total_progression": 121.6144, "progressive_carries": 3.9837, "shots_off_target": 0.687, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9001, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.382, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid 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0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.5081 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1152 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.087 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0645 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0418 } ], "others": -0.1429, "total": 0.6529, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.458268 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123797 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.092051 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.074216 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.051224 } ], "others_margin": -0.197883 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.38000980019569397, "model_output": 0.38, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.131 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0497 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0154 } ], "others": -0.0671, "total": 0.38, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.130995 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049666 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.025486 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.016392 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.015439 } ], "others_margin": -0.067111 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7215166091918945, "model_output": 6.7215, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0172, "total": 6.7215, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018853 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.013197 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012749 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.01088 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.009319 } ], "others_margin": -0.017256 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9916, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9638, "tackles": 1.7331, "tackles_won": 1.0524, "clearances": 1.9494, "aerial_won": 0.6474, "total_shots": 0.3768, "rating": 6.7215, "minutes": 87.0, "total_pass": 44.0714, "accurate_pass": 39.6397, "duels_won": 4.4923, "total_long_balls": 1.7612, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5753, "total_own_half_passes": 21.7802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.1746, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.2912, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.4651, "crosses_total": 1.4647, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.9141, "possession_lost": 8.5219, "dispossessed": 0.1725, "duels_lost": 2.8146, "aerial_lost": 0.8913, "total_contest": 1.9233, "won_contest": 1.5053, "ball_recovery": 4.5128, "challenges_lost": 0.6143, "fouls": 0.7185, "fouls_drawn": 1.5925, "blocks": 0.9739, "goals": 0.0, 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0.3768, "rating": 6.7215, "minutes": 87.0, "total_pass": 44.0714, "accurate_pass": 39.6397, "duels_won": 4.4923, "total_long_balls": 1.7612, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5753, "total_own_half_passes": 21.7802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.1746, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.2912, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.4651, "crosses_total": 1.4647, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.9141, "possession_lost": 8.5219, "dispossessed": 0.1725, "duels_lost": 2.8146, "aerial_lost": 0.8913, "total_contest": 1.9233, "won_contest": 1.5053, "ball_recovery": 4.5128, "challenges_lost": 0.6143, "fouls": 0.7185, "fouls_drawn": 1.5925, "blocks": 0.9739, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0031, "expected_assists": 0.015, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.6793, "total_progression": 66.6631, "progressive_carries": 2.2558, "key_pass": 0.2388, "shots_off_target": 0.3768, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9908, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7197, "expected_assists": 0.054, "assists": 0.0692, "assist_rate": 0.0692, "expected_goals": 0.0483, "goals": 0.0502, "goal_rate": 0.0502, "shots_on_target": 0.1758, "total_shots": 0.643, "rating": 6.897, "minutes": 75.86, "total_pass": 44.5933, "accurate_pass": 41.4806, "duels_won": 4.5268, "total_long_balls": 2.9064, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1086, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.8006, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5792, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.68, "crosses_total": 0.2671, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.0521, "possession_lost": 6.7508, "dispossessed": 1.2943, "duels_lost": 4.5282, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4201, "interceptions": 0.506, "tackles_won": 0.4966, "tackles": 0.8001, "clearances": 0.8015, "total_contest": 2.8464, "won_contest": 2.1116, "challenges_lost": 0.8914, "fouls": 1.1876, "fouls_drawn": 1.6151, "blocks": 0.1641, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2642, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20.2819, "total_progression": 72.9482, "progressive_carries": 2.0709, "shots_off_target": 0.4672 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9908, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0355)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7197, "expected_assists": 0.054, "assists": 0.0667, "assist_rate": 0.0667, "expected_goals": 0.0483, "goals": 0.0484, "goal_rate": 0.0484, "shots_on_target": 0.1696, "total_shots": 0.6202, "rating": 6.897, "minutes": 75.86, "total_pass": 44.5933, "accurate_pass": 41.4806, "duels_won": 4.5268, "total_long_balls": 2.9064, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1086, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.8006, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5792, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.68, "crosses_total": 0.2576, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.0521, "possession_lost": 6.7508, "dispossessed": 1.2943, "duels_lost": 4.5282, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4201, "interceptions": 0.5213, "tackles_won": 0.4956, "tackles": 0.8001, "clearances": 0.8015, "total_contest": 2.8464, "won_contest": 2.1116, "challenges_lost": 0.8914, "fouls": 1.1455, "fouls_drawn": 1.6076, "blocks": 0.1641, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2642, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20.2819, "total_progression": 72.9482, "progressive_carries": 2.0709, "shots_off_target": 0.4672 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0355, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8429, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Málaga" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.1876, "after": 1.1455 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.643, "after": 0.6202 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.506, "after": 0.5213 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.2671, "after": 0.2576 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.6151, "after": 1.6076 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1758, "after": 0.1696 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7197, "expected_assists": 0.054, "assists": 0.0667, "assist_rate": 0.0667, "expected_goals": 0.0483, "goals": 0.0484, "goal_rate": 0.0484, "shots_on_target": 0.1696, "total_shots": 0.6368, "rating": 6.897, "minutes": 75.86, "total_pass": 44.5933, "accurate_pass": 41.4806, "duels_won": 4.5268, "total_long_balls": 2.9064, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1086, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.8006, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5792, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.68, "crosses_total": 0.2576, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, 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44.5933, "accurate_pass": 41.4806, "duels_won": 4.5268, "total_long_balls": 2.9064, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1086, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.8006, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5792, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.68, "crosses_total": 0.2576, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.0521, "possession_lost": 6.7508, "dispossessed": 1.2943, "duels_lost": 4.5282, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.4201, "interceptions": 0.5213, "tackles_won": 0.4956, "tackles": 0.8001, "clearances": 0.8015, "total_contest": 2.8464, "won_contest": 2.1116, "challenges_lost": 0.8914, "fouls": 1.1455, "fouls_drawn": 1.6076, "blocks": 0.1641, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2378, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20.2819, "total_progression": 72.9482, "progressive_carries": 2.0709, "shots_off_target": 0.4205, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.382, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Gabriel Moscardo", "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Moscardo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Moscardo", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.382, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9, "skill_edge": -0.032, "height_edge": -0.036, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.5085, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Gabriel Moscardo", "market_value": 7500000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.5085 } ], "xg_override": 0.0435 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6368, "after": 0.5731 }, { "stat": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0032, quality 0.531)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3218, "goals": 0.4003, "goal_rate": 0.4003, "shots_on_target": 0.7942, "total_shots": 2.1286, "expected_assists": 0.0412, "key_pass": 0.5723, "rating": 6.7466, "minutes": 87.5, "total_pass": 15.7745, "accurate_pass": 9.8226, "duels_won": 4.5406, "total_long_balls": 0.2967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4263, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9285, "crosses_total": 0.7248, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.0121, "possession_lost": 9.8352, "dispossessed": 0.1261, "duels_lost": 5.0321, "aerial_lost": 1.8202, "total_contest": 1.39, "won_contest": 0.4831, "ball_recovery": 1.1275, "challenges_lost": 0.832, "fouls": 1.3469, "fouls_drawn": 1.4242, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2054, "tackles_won": 0.4749, "tackles": 0.4749, "clearances": 1.3352, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3007, "xgot": 0.292, "offsides": 0.3007, "ball_carries": 5.938, "total_progression": 21.4149, "progressive_carries": 1.367, "shots_off_target": 1.3344 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10700000, "quality_factor": 0.5306, "boost_factor": 1.0032, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3218, "goals": 0.3962, "goal_rate": 0.3962, "shots_on_target": 0.7686, "total_shots": 2.1539, "expected_assists": 0.0412, "key_pass": 0.5723, "rating": 6.7466, "minutes": 87.5, "total_pass": 15.7745, "accurate_pass": 9.8226, "duels_won": 4.5406, "total_long_balls": 0.2967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4263, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9285, "crosses_total": 0.6855, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.0121, "possession_lost": 9.8352, "dispossessed": 0.1261, "duels_lost": 5.0321, "aerial_lost": 1.8202, "total_contest": 1.39, "won_contest": 0.4831, "ball_recovery": 1.1275, "challenges_lost": 0.832, "fouls": 1.3266, "fouls_drawn": 1.3997, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1943, "tackles_won": 0.4843, "tackles": 0.4749, "clearances": 1.3352, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3007, "xgot": 0.292, "offsides": 0.302, "ball_carries": 5.938, "total_progression": 21.4149, "progressive_carries": 1.367, "shots_off_target": 1.3344 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0542, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9722, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Málaga" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.7248, "after": 0.6855 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7942, "after": 0.7686 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.1286, "after": 2.1539 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.4242, "after": 1.3997 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.3469, "after": 1.3266 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.2054, "after": 0.1943 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.4749, "after": 0.4843 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3218, "goals": 0.3962, "goal_rate": 0.3962, "shots_on_target": 0.7686, "total_shots": 2.1539, "expected_assists": 0.0412, "key_pass": 0.5723, "rating": 6.7466, "minutes": 87.5, "total_pass": 15.7745, "accurate_pass": 9.8226, "duels_won": 4.5406, "total_long_balls": 0.2967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4263, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9285, "crosses_total": 0.6855, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.0121, "possession_lost": 9.8352, "dispossessed": 0.1261, "duels_lost": 5.0321, "aerial_lost": 1.8202, "total_contest": 1.39, "won_contest": 0.4831, 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"accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9285, "crosses_total": 0.6855, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.0121, "possession_lost": 9.8352, "dispossessed": 0.1261, "duels_lost": 5.0321, "aerial_lost": 1.8202, "total_contest": 1.39, "won_contest": 0.4831, "ball_recovery": 1.1275, "challenges_lost": 0.832, "fouls": 1.3266, "fouls_drawn": 1.3997, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1943, "tackles_won": 0.4749, "tackles": 0.4749, "clearances": 1.3352, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2967, "xgot": 0.2881, "offsides": 0.302, "ball_carries": 5.938, "total_progression": 21.4149, "progressive_carries": 1.367, "shots_off_target": 1.3167, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9867, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.191, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Quilindschy Hartman, Leandro Cabrera", "opponent_faced": "Quilindschy Hartman, Leandro Cabrera", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Quilindschy Hartman, Leandro Cabrera", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.191, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9867, "skill_edge": -0.0031, "height_edge": -0.006, "attacker_skill": 0.5306, "defender_skill": 0.5375, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Quilindschy Hartman", "market_value": 15500000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6376 }, { "player": "Leandro Cabrera", "market_value": 930000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.3175 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.1539, "after": 2.1253 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", 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1.1997, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.765, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7937, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6072, "team_expected_assists": 0.5852, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7649, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9638, "xa_scale": 0.9638, "opponent_lambda": 1.477, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.3175, "after": 0.306 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.306, "goal_rate": 0.3909, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7584, "total_shots": 2.1253, "expected_assists": 0.0397, "key_pass": 0.5723, "rating": 6.7466, "minutes": 87.5, "total_pass": 15.7745, "accurate_pass": 9.8226, "duels_won": 4.5406, "total_long_balls": 0.2967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4263, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9285, "crosses_total": 0.6855, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.0121, "possession_lost": 9.8352, "dispossessed": 0.1261, "duels_lost": 5.0321, "aerial_lost": 1.8202, "total_contest": 1.39, "won_contest": 0.4831, "ball_recovery": 1.1275, "challenges_lost": 0.832, "fouls": 1.3266, "fouls_drawn": 1.3997, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1943, "tackles_won": 0.4749, "tackles": 0.4749, "clearances": 1.3352, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2967, "xgot": 0.2777, "offsides": 0.302, "ball_carries": 5.938, "total_progression": 21.4149, "progressive_carries": 1.367, "shots_off_target": 1.3167, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9867, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.191, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Quilindschy Hartman, Leandro Cabrera", 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.160998 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.126197 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.079422 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.043241 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.038606 } ], "others_margin": 0.195657 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.745622158050537, "model_output": 6.7456, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0301, "total": 6.7456, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.049361 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.03816 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.024618 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.020347 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.010139 } ], "others_margin": -0.030139 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9916, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0635, "expected_assists": 0.0976, "assists": 0.146, "assist_rate": 0.146, "expected_goals": 0.0982, "goals": 0.0685, "goal_rate": 0.0685, "shots_on_target": 0.4242, "total_shots": 1.3011, "rating": 6.7456, "minutes": 71.32, "total_pass": 15.3225, "accurate_pass": 12.4988, "duels_won": 3.4462, "total_long_balls": 0.8793, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1396, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5185, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.68, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8188, "crosses_total": 1.3332, "crosses_accurate": 0.4315, "touches": 26.3896, "possession_lost": 8.104, "dispossessed": 0.9225, "duels_lost": 4.2557, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8615, "interceptions": 0.2273, "tackles_won": 0.5958, "tackles": 0.9626, "clearances": 0.1932, "total_contest": 1.2418, "won_contest": 0.7984, "challenges_lost": 1.293, "fouls": 0.7354, "fouls_drawn": 1.6851, "blocks": 0.1932, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.6392, "total_progression": 38.6875, "progressive_carries": 1.8072, "shots_off_target": 0.8769 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9916, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0397)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0635, "expected_assists": 0.0976, "assists": 0.1402, "assist_rate": 0.1402, "expected_goals": 0.0982, "goals": 0.0658, "goal_rate": 0.0658, "shots_on_target": 0.4073, "total_shots": 1.2781, "rating": 6.7456, "minutes": 71.32, "total_pass": 15.3225, "accurate_pass": 12.4988, "duels_won": 3.4462, "total_long_balls": 0.8793, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1396, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5185, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.68, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8188, "crosses_total": 1.3089, "crosses_accurate": 0.4315, "touches": 26.3896, "possession_lost": 8.104, "dispossessed": 0.9225, "duels_lost": 4.2557, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8615, "interceptions": 0.2183, "tackles_won": 0.6008, "tackles": 0.9626, "clearances": 0.1932, "total_contest": 1.2418, "won_contest": 0.7984, "challenges_lost": 1.293, "fouls": 0.7491, "fouls_drawn": 1.7326, "blocks": 0.1932, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.6392, "total_progression": 38.6875, "progressive_carries": 1.8072, "shots_off_target": 0.8769 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0397, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7924, "prior_reliability": 0.1467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Málaga" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.6851, "after": 1.7326 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.3332, "after": 1.3089 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3011, "after": 1.2781 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4242, "after": 0.4073 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7354, "after": 0.7491 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.2273, "after": 0.2183 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.146, "after": 0.1402 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.5958, "after": 0.6008 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0635, "expected_assists": 0.0976, "assists": 0.1402, "assist_rate": 0.1402, "expected_goals": 0.0982, "goals": 0.0658, "goal_rate": 0.0658, "shots_on_target": 0.4073, "total_shots": 1.2842, "rating": 6.7456, "minutes": 71.32, "total_pass": 15.3225, "accurate_pass": 12.4988, "duels_won": 3.4462, "total_long_balls": 0.8793, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1396, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5185, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.68, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8188, "crosses_total": 1.3089, "crosses_accurate": 0.4315, "touches": 26.3896, "possession_lost": 8.104, "dispossessed": 0.9225, "duels_lost": 4.2557, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8615, "interceptions": 0.2183, "tackles_won": 0.6008, "tackles": 0.9626, "clearances": 0.1932, "total_contest": 1.2418, "won_contest": 0.7984, "challenges_lost": 1.293, "fouls": 0.7491, "fouls_drawn": 1.7326, "blocks": 0.1932, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.6392, "total_progression": 38.6875, "progressive_carries": 1.8072, "shots_off_target": 0.8769 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0635, "expected_assists": 0.0976, "assists": 0.1402, "assist_rate": 0.1402, "expected_goals": 0.0776, "goals": 0.052, "goal_rate": 0.052, "shots_on_target": 0.3218, "total_shots": 1.0146, "rating": 6.7456, "minutes": 71.32, "total_pass": 15.3225, "accurate_pass": 12.4988, "duels_won": 3.4462, "total_long_balls": 0.8793, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1396, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5185, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.68, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8188, "crosses_total": 1.3089, "crosses_accurate": 0.4315, "touches": 26.3896, "possession_lost": 8.104, "dispossessed": 0.9225, "duels_lost": 4.2557, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.8615, "interceptions": 0.2183, "tackles_won": 0.6008, "tackles": 0.9626, "clearances": 0.1932, "total_contest": 1.2418, "won_contest": 0.7984, "challenges_lost": 1.293, "fouls": 0.7491, "fouls_drawn": 1.7326, "blocks": 0.1932, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.6392, "total_progression": 38.6875, "progressive_carries": 1.8072, "shots_off_target": 0.6928, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7901, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.317, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Omar El Hilali", "opponent_faced": "Omar El Hilali", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Omar El Hilali", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "duel_win_rate": 0.317, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.7901, "skill_edge": -0.0988, "height_edge": -0.044, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.6569, "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Omar El Hilali", "market_value": 15900000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.6569 } ], "xg_override": 0.0776 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.8 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2842, "after": 1.0146 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.8769, "after": 0.6928 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4073, "after": 0.3218 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0982, "after": 0.0776 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0658, "after": 0.052 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.77 (squad xG sum 0.7937, xG scale 0.9638, xA scale 0.9638, team xA 0.59 = 0.76 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0635, "expected_assists": 0.0941, "assist_rate": 0.1402, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0748, "goal_rate": 0.052, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3218, "total_shots": 1.0146, "rating": 6.7456, "minutes": 71.32, "total_pass": 15.3225, "accurate_pass": 12.4988, "duels_won": 3.4462, "total_long_balls": 0.8793, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1396, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5185, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.68, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8188, "crosses_total": 1.3089, "crosses_accurate": 0.4315, "touches": 26.3896, "possession_lost": 8.104, "dispossessed": 0.9225, "duels_lost": 4.2557, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.8615, "interceptions": 0.2183, "tackles_won": 0.6008, "tackles": 0.9626, "clearances": 0.1932, "total_contest": 1.2418, "won_contest": 0.7984, "challenges_lost": 1.293, "fouls": 0.7491, "fouls_drawn": 1.7326, "blocks": 0.1932, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.6392, "total_progression": 38.6875, "progressive_carries": 1.8072, "shots_off_target": 0.6928, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7901, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.317, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Omar El Hilali", "opponent_faced": "Omar El Hilali", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.765, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7937, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6072, "team_expected_assists": 0.5852, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7649, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9638, "xa_scale": 0.9638, "opponent_lambda": 1.477, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0635, "expected_assists": 0.0941, "assist_rate": 0.1402, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0748, "goal_rate": 0.052, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3218, "total_shots": 1.0146, "rating": 6.7456, "minutes": 71.32, "total_pass": 15.3225, "accurate_pass": 12.4988, "duels_won": 3.4462, "total_long_balls": 0.8793, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1396, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5185, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.68, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8188, "crosses_total": 1.3089, "crosses_accurate": 0.4315, "touches": 26.3896, "possession_lost": 8.104, "dispossessed": 0.9225, "duels_lost": 4.2557, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.8615, "interceptions": 0.2183, "tackles_won": 0.6008, "tackles": 0.9626, "clearances": 0.1932, "total_contest": 1.2418, "won_contest": 0.7984, "challenges_lost": 1.293, "fouls": 0.7491, "fouls_drawn": 1.7326, "blocks": 0.1932, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.6392, "total_progression": 38.6875, "progressive_carries": 1.8072, "shots_off_target": 0.6928, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7901, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.317, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide 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"crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.317, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Omar El Hilali", "opponent_faced": "Omar El Hilali", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0721, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0721, "scorer_weight": 0.0598, "squad_weight_total": 0.8264, "weight_share": 0.0724, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0635, "expected_assists": 0.0941, "assist_rate": 0.1402, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0748, "goal_rate": 0.052, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3218, "total_shots": 1.0146, "rating": 6.7456, "minutes": 71.32, "total_pass": 15.3225, "accurate_pass": 12.4988, "duels_won": 3.4462, "total_long_balls": 0.8793, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1396, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5185, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.68, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8188, "crosses_total": 1.3089, "crosses_accurate": 0.4315, "touches": 26.3896, "possession_lost": 8.104, "dispossessed": 0.9225, "duels_lost": 4.2557, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.8615, "interceptions": 0.2183, "tackles_won": 0.6008, "tackles": 0.9626, "clearances": 0.1932, "total_contest": 1.2418, "won_contest": 0.7984, "challenges_lost": 1.293, "fouls": 0.7491, "fouls_drawn": 1.7326, "blocks": 0.1932, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.6392, "total_progression": 38.6875, "progressive_carries": 1.8072, "shots_off_target": 0.6928, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7901, 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}, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1251191645860672, "model_output": 0.1251, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1881 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0694 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0296 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0092 } ], "others": -0.0381, "total": 0.1251, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.188065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.069389 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029633 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011585 }, { "name": 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857671, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 188, "market_value": 6600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "assist_rate": 0.0308, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0245, "goal_rate": 0.0469, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.669, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3806, "combined_rank_score": 1806.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3437.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.669, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bartłomiej Drągowski", "ranking": 3801 }, { "player_name": "Eliesse Ben Seghir", "ranking": 3802 }, { "player_name": "Roony Bardghji", "ranking": 3803 }, { "player_name": "Nilson Angulo", "ranking": 3804 }, { "player_name": "James 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9942, quality 0.482)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2049, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "assists": 0.0218, "assist_rate": 0.0218, "expected_goals": 0.018, "goals": 0.0332, "goal_rate": 0.0332, "shots_on_target": 0.0849, "total_shots": 0.2544, "rating": 6.669, "minutes": 15.67, "total_pass": 5.9652, "accurate_pass": 4.971, "duels_won": 0.9942, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9826, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9826, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.9826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9884, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.9594, "possession_lost": 0.9942, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9942, "tackles": 0.9942, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, 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"accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2396, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.15, "projection_minutes": 15.67, "minutes_scale": 1.4134, "appearance_probability": 0.507 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2896, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "assists": 0.0308, "assist_rate": 0.0308, "expected_goals": 0.0254, "goals": 0.0469, "goal_rate": 0.0469, "shots_on_target": 0.12, "total_shots": 0.3596, "rating": 6.669, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2396, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.77 (squad xG sum 0.7937, xG scale 0.9638, xA scale 0.9638, team xA 0.59 = 0.76 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2896, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "assist_rate": 0.0308, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0245, "goal_rate": 0.0469, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.12, "total_shots": 0.3596, "rating": 6.669, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2396, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.43, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.215 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.765, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7937, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6072, 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"name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0039 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0022 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.0096, "total": 0.0178, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.321293 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.273305 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.115059 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07272 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.071568 } ], "others_margin": -0.431391 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.21638719737529755, "model_output": 0.2164, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2673 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0561 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0372 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0161 } ], "others": -0.0574, "total": 0.2164, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.505061 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.148461 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.112035 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9873, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1173, "goals": 0.1133, "goal_rate": 0.1133, "shots_on_target": 0.306, "total_shots": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.0176, "key_pass": 0.2136, "rating": 6.5402, "minutes": 28.12, "total_pass": 3.9425, "accurate_pass": 3.1749, "duels_won": 1.3222, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5225, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7548, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5441, "possession_lost": 2.0724, "dispossessed": 0.3262, "duels_lost": 3.4436, "aerial_lost": 2.7335, "total_contest": 0.3838, "won_contest": 0.3838, "ball_recovery": 0.3838, "challenges_lost": 0.3838, "fouls": 0.2773, "fouls_drawn": 0.2773, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2673 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0561 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0372 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0161 } ], "others": -0.0574, "total": 0.2164, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.505061 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.148461 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.112035 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 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], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0789 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0489 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.012 } ], "others": -0.0341, "total": 6.669, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.07894 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.048941 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.015587 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014375 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.01196 } ], "others_margin": -0.034026 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9942, quality 0.482)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2049, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "assists": 0.0218, "assist_rate": 0.0218, "expected_goals": 0.018, "goals": 0.0332, "goal_rate": 0.0332, "shots_on_target": 0.0849, "total_shots": 0.2544, "rating": 6.669, "minutes": 15.67, "total_pass": 5.9652, "accurate_pass": 4.971, "duels_won": 0.9942, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9826, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9826, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.9826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9884, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.9594, "possession_lost": 0.9942, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9942, "tackles": 0.9942, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9884, "total_progression": 4.1874, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1695 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6600000, "quality_factor": 0.4818, "boost_factor": 0.9942, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.7 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2896, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "assists": 0.0308, "assist_rate": 0.0308, "expected_goals": 0.0254, "goals": 0.0469, "goal_rate": 0.0469, "shots_on_target": 0.12, "total_shots": 0.3596, "rating": 6.669, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2396, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.15, "projection_minutes": 15.67, "minutes_scale": 1.4134, "appearance_probability": 0.507 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2896, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "assists": 0.0308, "assist_rate": 0.0308, "expected_goals": 0.0254, "goals": 0.0469, "goal_rate": 0.0469, "shots_on_target": 0.12, "total_shots": 0.3596, "rating": 6.669, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2396, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.77 (squad xG sum 0.7937, xG scale 0.9638, xA scale 0.9638, team xA 0.59 = 0.76 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2896, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "assist_rate": 0.0308, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0245, "goal_rate": 0.0469, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.12, "total_shots": 0.3596, "rating": 6.669, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.4052, "tackles": 1.4052, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8104, "total_progression": 5.9184, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2396, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.43, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.215 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.765, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7937, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6072, "team_expected_assists": 0.5852, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7649, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9638, "xa_scale": 0.9638, "opponent_lambda": 1.477, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.507 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2896, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "assist_rate": 0.0308, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0245, "goal_rate": 0.0469, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.12, "total_shots": 0.3596, "rating": 6.669, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, 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"squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3806, "fifa_rank": 3437.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2896, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "assist_rate": 0.0308, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0245, "goal_rate": 0.0469, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.12, "total_shots": 0.3596, "rating": 6.669, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, 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"allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0123, "scorer_weight": 0.0155, "squad_weight_total": 0.8264, "weight_share": 0.0188, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.507, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2896, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "assist_rate": 0.0308, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0245, "goal_rate": 0.0469, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.12, "total_shots": 0.3596, "rating": 6.669, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 8.4311, "accurate_pass": 7.0259, "duels_won": 1.4052, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2156, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8104, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8363, "possession_lost": 1.4052, "dispossessed": 0.0, 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"margin": 0.074502 } ], "others_margin": 0.170348 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.889841914176941, "model_output": 1.8898, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4038 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1662 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0788 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0541 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0489 } ], "others": 0.2453, "total": 1.8898, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.403751 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.166182 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.078824 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.054058 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.048852 } ], "others_margin": 0.245415 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.658604145050049, "model_output": 6.6586, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0513 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0336 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0288 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0198 } ], "others": -0.0767, "total": 6.6586, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.051277 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.033563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.028826 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.019945 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.019805 } ], "others_margin": -0.076742 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9916, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3789, "expected_assists": 0.1482, "assists": 0.2215, "assist_rate": 0.2215, "expected_goals": 0.1539, "goals": 0.1891, "goal_rate": 0.1891, "shots_on_target": 0.6976, "total_shots": 1.874, "rating": 6.6586, "minutes": 82.08, "total_pass": 20.6417, "accurate_pass": 17.0067, "duels_won": 3.2158, "total_long_balls": 1.367, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6755, "total_own_half_passes": 6.8524, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7801, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.7893, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2266, "crosses_total": 2.5285, "crosses_accurate": 0.3771, "touches": 42.0912, "possession_lost": 16.1924, "dispossessed": 3.2498, "duels_lost": 8.8096, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.6603, "interceptions": 0.1582, "tackles_won": 0.4814, "tackles": 0.9336, "clearances": 0.0826, "total_contest": 2.8829, "won_contest": 0.7886, "challenges_lost": 1.2582, "fouls": 1.8631, "fouls_drawn": 1.4934, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.699, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1634, "ball_carries": 14.9158, "total_progression": 90.8785, "progressive_carries": 2.3764, "shots_off_target": 1.1764 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9916, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0451)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3789, "expected_assists": 0.1482, "assists": 0.2609, "assist_rate": 0.2609, "expected_goals": 0.1539, "goals": 0.1806, "goal_rate": 0.1806, "shots_on_target": 0.6826, "total_shots": 1.8392, "rating": 6.6586, "minutes": 82.08, "total_pass": 20.6417, "accurate_pass": 17.0067, "duels_won": 3.2158, "total_long_balls": 1.367, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6755, 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1949 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0492 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0393 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0391 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0382 } ], "others": -0.0421, "total": 0.7392, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.253957 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.058283 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.049147 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.048949 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.047787 } ], "others_margin": -0.05537 } }, { "target": "rating", 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0.1245, "tackles": 0.2711, "clearances": 0.1724, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3752, "big_chances_missed": 0.3282, "xgot": 0.189, "offsides": 0.55, "ball_carries": 3.5582, "total_progression": 25.0004, "progressive_carries": 0.9274, "shots_off_target": 1.3282 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1500000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9908, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0059)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2968, "goals": 0.3033, "goal_rate": 0.3033, "shots_on_target": 0.7721, "total_shots": 2.1267, "expected_assists": 0.0662, "key_pass": 0.7324, "rating": 6.8848, "minutes": 75.33, "total_pass": 6.6088, "accurate_pass": 4.7487, "duels_won": 1.9643, "total_long_balls": 0.411, "accurate_long_balls": 0.411, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3382, "crosses_total": 0.373, 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"contribution": -0.2448 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1254 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0761 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0301 } ], "others": 0.0092, "total": 0.865, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.244848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12541 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.076091 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.03071 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.030132 } ], "others_margin": 0.009271 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.685565948486328, "model_output": 6.6856, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0557 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0445 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0241 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0513, "total": 6.6856, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.055663 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.044478 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.024086 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.022563 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.010263 } ], "others_margin": -0.051376 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5378, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "assists": 0.0387, "assist_rate": 0.0387, "expected_goals": 0.0685, "goals": 0.0884, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "shots_on_target": 0.2546, "total_shots": 0.8633, "rating": 6.6856, "minutes": 68.72, "total_pass": 12.8923, "accurate_pass": 10.4709, "duels_won": 4.1096, "total_long_balls": 1.2241, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0318, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0985, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.1744, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7937, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2964, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.7645, "possession_lost": 5.7223, "dispossessed": 1.5773, "duels_lost": 3.4462, "aerial_won": 1.6368, "aerial_lost": 0.6448, "interceptions": 0.2262, "tackles_won": 0.6848, "tackles": 1.9803, "clearances": 1.4164, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.456)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7269, "expected_assists": 0.1647, "assists": 0.1212, "assist_rate": 0.1212, "expected_goals": 0.1376, "goals": 0.18, "goal_rate": 0.18, "shots_on_target": 0.6403, "total_shots": 1.8136, "rating": 7.186, "minutes": 83.23, "total_pass": 43.6137, "accurate_pass": 36.3651, "duels_won": 5.5279, "total_long_balls": 4.082, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6554, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4406, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.282, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.1732, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.0831, "crosses_total": 4.2452, "crosses_accurate": 1.2625, "touches": 63.5303, "possession_lost": 14.1511, "dispossessed": 1.098, "duels_lost": 4.4572, "aerial_won": 1.0456, "aerial_lost": 1.0487, "interceptions": 0.5271, "tackles_won": 1.3671, "tackles": 2.1005, "clearances": 1.795, 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"after": 4.206 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.8136, "after": 1.8294 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7269, "expected_assists": 0.1647, "assists": 0.1197, "assist_rate": 0.1197, "expected_goals": 0.1376, "goals": 0.1778, "goal_rate": 0.1778, "shots_on_target": 0.6367, "total_shots": 1.8294, "rating": 7.186, "minutes": 83.23, "total_pass": 43.6137, "accurate_pass": 36.3651, "duels_won": 5.5279, "total_long_balls": 4.082, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6554, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4406, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.282, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.1732, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.0831, "crosses_total": 4.206, "crosses_accurate": 1.2625, "touches": 63.5303, "possession_lost": 14.1511, "dispossessed": 1.098, "duels_lost": 4.4572, "aerial_won": 1.0456, "aerial_lost": 1.0487, "interceptions": 0.5249, "tackles_won": 1.3671, "tackles": 2.1005, "clearances": 1.795, 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"attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "David Larrubia", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.409, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0128, "skill_edge": -0.0033, "height_edge": 0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.4658, "defender_skill": 0.4731, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "David Larrubia", "market_value": 5300000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.4731 } ], "xg_override": 0.1394 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.0456, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.8294, "after": 1.8528 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1733, "after": 1.1883 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6367, "after": 0.6448 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists 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"runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1344, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] }, "Quilindschy Hartman": { "player_id": 1392044, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 183, "market_value": 15500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6974, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 61, "possession_lost": 14.5933, "dispossessed": 0.2638, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1576, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0189, 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"home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Burnley", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3658, "combined_rank_score": 1619.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 822.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 2417.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": 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], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1035 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.075 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0725 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0415 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0388 } ], "others": 0.1402, "total": 1.3259, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114351 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.075346 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.067852 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.03685 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.033244 } ], "others_margin": 0.111894 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.3224937915802, "model_output": 2.3225, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": 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match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0985 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0567 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0256 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0275, "total": 0.42, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.098491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056654 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.025555 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019732 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.012346 } ], "others_margin": -0.027468 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.697412014007568, "model_output": 6.6974, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0264 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0443, "total": 6.6974, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026418 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.019447 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.012493 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012353 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.011457 } ], "others_margin": -0.044444 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9272, "tackles": 1.0785, "tackles_won": 0.6062, "clearances": 6.4762, "aerial_won": 3.3395, "total_shots": 0.6441, "rating": 6.7997, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 47.488, "accurate_pass": 39.7955, "duels_won": 4.369, "total_long_balls": 6.1996, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7517, "total_own_half_passes": 26.6288, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.809, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.8592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9865, "crosses_total": 0.3714, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 61.159, "possession_lost": 8.4955, "dispossessed": 0.0535, "duels_lost": 3.3643, "aerial_lost": 1.5859, "total_contest": 0.0757, "won_contest": 0.0308, "ball_recovery": 2.1517, "challenges_lost": 0.2983, "fouls": 1.4344, "fouls_drawn": 0.3634, "blocks": 0.7075, "goals": 0.0101, 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24.809, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.8592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9865, "crosses_total": 0.3714, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 61.159, "possession_lost": 8.4955, "dispossessed": 0.0535, "duels_lost": 3.3643, "aerial_lost": 1.5859, "total_contest": 0.0757, "won_contest": 0.0308, "ball_recovery": 2.1517, "challenges_lost": 0.2983, "fouls": 1.4344, "fouls_drawn": 0.3634, "blocks": 0.7075, "goals": 0.0101, "goal_rate": 0.0101, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0509, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "shots_on_target": 0.1668, "big_chances_created": 0.003, "xgot": 0.0243, "ball_carries": 11.1649, "total_progression": 34.8914, "progressive_carries": 0.3429, "key_pass": 0.0985, "shots_off_target": 0.4772 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9272, "tackles": 1.0785, "tackles_won": 0.6062, "clearances": 6.4762, "aerial_won": 3.3395, "total_shots": 0.6441, "rating": 6.7997, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 47.488, "accurate_pass": 39.7955, "duels_won": 4.369, "total_long_balls": 6.1996, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7517, "total_own_half_passes": 26.6288, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.809, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.8592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9865, "crosses_total": 0.3714, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 61.159, "possession_lost": 8.4955, "dispossessed": 0.0535, "duels_lost": 3.3643, "aerial_lost": 1.5859, "total_contest": 0.0757, "won_contest": 0.0308, "ball_recovery": 2.1517, "challenges_lost": 0.2983, "fouls": 1.4344, "fouls_drawn": 0.3634, "blocks": 0.7075, "goals": 0.0101, "goal_rate": 0.0101, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0509, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "shots_on_target": 0.1668, "big_chances_created": 0.003, "xgot": 0.0243, "ball_carries": 11.1649, "total_progression": 34.8914, "progressive_carries": 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}, { "match_id": 16416345, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0172, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 39, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416327, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 0, 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{ "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0023, "total": 6.7546, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027429 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012698 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.011586 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.010771 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010453 } ], "others_margin": -0.00226 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9973, quality 0.449)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.912, "tackles": 1.2017, "tackles_won": 0.6712, "clearances": 4.9749, "aerial_won": 2.1575, "total_shots": 0.4053, "rating": 6.7546, "minutes": 84.71, "total_pass": 48.2111, "accurate_pass": 41.1187, "duels_won": 3.7209, "total_long_balls": 6.2731, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0664, "total_own_half_passes": 33.9698, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.6531, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2412, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.4657, "crosses_total": 0.0337, "crosses_accurate": 0.0116, "touches": 60.282, "possession_lost": 7.9199, "dispossessed": 0.1306, "duels_lost": 4.0447, "aerial_lost": 1.8224, "total_contest": 0.0188, "won_contest": 0.0188, "ball_recovery": 2.7909, "challenges_lost": 0.3984, "fouls": 1.8947, "fouls_drawn": 0.4331, "blocks": 0.4649, "goals": 0.0, 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"sofascore_rating": 7.2333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 957.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0915, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marko Dmitrović", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mario Gila", "ranking": 1305 }, { "player_name": "Son Heung Min", "ranking": 1306 }, { "player_name": "Bazoumana Touré", "ranking": 1307 }, { "player_name": "Emil Audero", "ranking": 1308 }, { "player_name": "Lukáš Haraslín", "ranking": 1309 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Tino Livramento", "ranking": 1311 }, { "player_name": "Yéremy Pino", "ranking": 1312 }, { "player_name": "Cecilio Waterman", "ranking": 1313 }, { "player_name": "Javier Guerra", "ranking": 1314 }, { "player_name": "Pedro Gonçalves", "ranking": 1315 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], 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"minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 8.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 5.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 1.4299, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8664, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.735, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.0773, "save_contribution": 3.3589, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.4434 }, "per_target": [ { 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"margin": -0.030343 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": -0.023185 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.021444 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.020872 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.02012 } ], "others_margin": -0.050254 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.091531276702881, "model_output": 7.0915, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0323 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0294 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0243 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0126 } ], "others": -0.0329, 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0.2036 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.1053 } ], "others": 0.0209, "total": 4.0465, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124422 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.075234 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.070477 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.050539 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.025812 } ], "others_margin": 0.005166 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.4176512956619263, "model_output": 1.4177, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1245 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1065 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0671 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0368 } ], "others": -0.1704, "total": 1.4177, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.108109 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.077774 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.066147 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.042198 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.022908 } ], "others_margin": -0.113578 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3997921645641327, "model_output": 0.3998, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0533 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0343 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0092 } ], "others": -0.0137, "total": 0.3998, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.126128 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.053261 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.034256 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.009869 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.009159 } ], "others_margin": -0.013701 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.79177188873291, "model_output": 6.7918, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0129 } ], "others": -0.0147, "total": 6.7918, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.026928 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.016935 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.014934 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.013379 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.012882 } ], "others_margin": -0.014679 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0027, quality 0.589)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1198, "tackles": 1.784, "tackles_won": 1.1169, "clearances": 4.0574, "aerial_won": 1.4215, "total_shots": 0.4009, "rating": 6.7918, "minutes": 87.89, "total_pass": 28.9605, "accurate_pass": 23.0037, "duels_won": 4.8858, "total_long_balls": 3.713, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6034, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4992, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3603, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5046, "crosses_total": 2.9707, "crosses_accurate": 0.8634, "touches": 54.6133, "possession_lost": 11.3322, "dispossessed": 0.0514, "duels_lost": 3.9722, "aerial_lost": 0.9294, "total_contest": 0.645, "won_contest": 0.3829, "ball_recovery": 2.2325, "challenges_lost": 0.5848, "fouls": 2.5017, "fouls_drawn": 0.7784, "blocks": 0.6391, "goals": 0.0, 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"Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Joaquín Muñoz", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.48 (squad xG sum 1.4515, xG scale 1.0175, xA scale 1.0198, team xA 0.96 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1223, "tackles": 1.784, "tackles_won": 1.1105, "clearances": 4.0574, "aerial_won": 1.4215, "total_shots": 0.4009, "rating": 6.7918, "minutes": 87.89, "total_pass": 28.9605, "accurate_pass": 23.0037, "duels_won": 4.8858, "total_long_balls": 3.713, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6034, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4992, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3603, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5046, "crosses_total": 2.9791, "crosses_accurate": 0.8634, "touches": 54.6133, "possession_lost": 11.3322, "dispossessed": 0.0514, "duels_lost": 3.9722, "aerial_lost": 0.9294, "total_contest": 0.645, "won_contest": 0.3829, "ball_recovery": 2.2325, "challenges_lost": 0.5848, "fouls": 2.4986, "fouls_drawn": 0.7676, "blocks": 0.6391, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1266, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1318, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1439, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.5396, "total_progression": 33.9718, "progressive_carries": 0.9303, "key_pass": 0.5685, "shots_off_target": 0.4009, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.683, "opponent_faced": "Joaquín Muñoz", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1311 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.117 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0935 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0565 } ], "others": 0.4073, "total": 1.6996, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.282724 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.136803 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.108048 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.07871 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.044713 } ], "others_margin": 0.273981 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.995956897735596, "model_output": 6.996, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0697 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0432 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0326 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0258 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0169 } ], "others": 0.0456, "total": 6.996, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.069721 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.043187 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.032626 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.025756 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.01694 } ], "others_margin": 0.045566 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9993, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1341, "goals": 0.1402, "goal_rate": 0.1402, "shots_on_target": 0.783, "total_shots": 1.7132, "expected_assists": 0.1588, "key_pass": 1.6985, "rating": 6.996, "minutes": 76.76, "total_pass": 23.7518, "accurate_pass": 18.3349, "duels_won": 4.04, "total_long_balls": 1.998, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9003, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8604, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1356, "crosses_total": 5.5761, "crosses_accurate": 1.3601, "touches": 43.8189, "possession_lost": 15.6081, "dispossessed": 0.3815, "duels_lost": 4.6557, "aerial_lost": 0.4739, "total_contest": 4.6177, "won_contest": 2.0909, "ball_recovery": 2.0048, "challenges_lost": 0.7573, "fouls": 0.5163, "fouls_drawn": 1.3728, "assists": 0.0631, "assist_rate": 0.0631, "interceptions": 0.0536, "tackles_won": 0.2575, "tackles": 0.5226, "clearances": 0.2329, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3033, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2038, "offsides": 0.3575, "ball_carries": 21.3593, "total_progression": 103.3662, "progressive_carries": 6.5115, "shots_off_target": 0.9302 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7500000, "quality_factor": 0.4927, "boost_factor": 0.9993, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1341, "goals": 0.1402, "goal_rate": 0.1402, "shots_on_target": 0.783, "total_shots": 1.7132, "expected_assists": 0.1588, "key_pass": 1.6985, "rating": 6.996, "minutes": 76.76, "total_pass": 23.7518, "accurate_pass": 18.3349, "duels_won": 4.04, "total_long_balls": 1.998, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9003, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8604, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1356, "crosses_total": 5.5761, "crosses_accurate": 1.3601, "touches": 43.8189, "possession_lost": 15.6081, "dispossessed": 0.3815, "duels_lost": 4.6557, "aerial_lost": 0.4739, "total_contest": 4.6177, "won_contest": 2.0909, "ball_recovery": 2.0048, "challenges_lost": 0.7573, "fouls": 0.5163, "fouls_drawn": 1.3728, "assists": 0.0631, "assist_rate": 0.0631, "interceptions": 0.0536, "tackles_won": 0.2575, "tackles": 0.5226, "clearances": 0.2329, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3033, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2038, "offsides": 0.3575, "ball_carries": 21.3593, "total_progression": 103.3662, "progressive_carries": 6.5115, "shots_off_target": 0.9302 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1272, "goals": 0.133, "goal_rate": 0.133, "shots_on_target": 0.7425, "total_shots": 1.6246, 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2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ángel Recio, Fernando Calero", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9483, "skill_edge": 0.0249, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.4927, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ángel Recio", "market_value": 315000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 }, { "player": "Fernando Calero", 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"contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0031 } ], "others": -0.016, "total": 0.0396, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.230687 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.131989 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.117648 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.072295 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.053674 } ], "others_margin": -0.340249 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.599190354347229, "model_output": 0.5992, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2086 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0616 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0468 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0436 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0284 } ], "others": -0.103, "total": 0.5992, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.269658 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.072362 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.058685 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.058019 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.039614 } ], "others_margin": -0.158595 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7783002853393555, "model_output": 6.7783, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0593 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0365 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0163 } ], "others": 0.0149, "total": 6.7783, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.059252 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.036467 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.021515 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.016409 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.016277 } ], "others_margin": 0.014999 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.403, "goals": 0.4754, "goal_rate": 0.4754, "shots_on_target": 0.9739, "total_shots": 2.2752, "expected_assists": 0.0397, "key_pass": 0.6016, "rating": 6.7783, "minutes": 83.83, "total_pass": 11.0801, "accurate_pass": 7.4602, "duels_won": 3.9182, "total_long_balls": 0.4674, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2039, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7264, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7773, "crosses_total": 0.1881, "crosses_accurate": 0.0112, "touches": 21.5035, "possession_lost": 7.413, "dispossessed": 0.6208, "duels_lost": 5.6066, "aerial_lost": 2.9459, "total_contest": 0.5888, "won_contest": 0.3264, "ball_recovery": 1.0401, "challenges_lost": 0.6207, "fouls": 1.3854, "fouls_drawn": 1.1786, "assists": 0.0362, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "interceptions": 0.1681, 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0.17, "tackles_won": 0.2827, "tackles": 0.3235, "clearances": 0.8232, "blocks": 0.1475, "big_chances_created": 0.0068, "big_chances_missed": 0.4852, "xgot": 0.4883, "offsides": 1.2343, "ball_carries": 4.5122, "total_progression": 3.2941, "progressive_carries": 0.4136, "shots_off_target": 1.3013 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.462, "goals": 0.5519, "goal_rate": 0.5519, "shots_on_target": 1.1162, "total_shots": 2.6079, "expected_assists": 0.0397, "key_pass": 0.6016, "rating": 6.7783, "minutes": 83.83, "total_pass": 11.0801, "accurate_pass": 7.4602, "duels_won": 3.9182, "total_long_balls": 0.4674, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2039, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7264, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7773, "crosses_total": 0.1898, "crosses_accurate": 0.0112, "touches": 21.5035, "possession_lost": 7.413, 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"contribution": -0.1734 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0703 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0597, "total": 0.135, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.173391 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.070269 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012304 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01112 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.00928 } ], "others_margin": -0.059761 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.599063396453857, "model_output": 6.5991, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0273 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0167 } ], "others": -0.084, "total": 6.5991, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.027278 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.022095 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.018843 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017148 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.016719 } ], "others_margin": -0.083986 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9931, quality 0.468)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4215, "tackles": 0.525, "tackles_won": 0.2994, "clearances": 1.5498, "aerial_won": 0.3839, "total_shots": 0.1341, "rating": 6.5991, "minutes": 14.78, "total_pass": 20.886, "accurate_pass": 16.7186, "duels_won": 2.1985, "total_long_balls": 4.1673, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9352, "total_own_half_passes": 13.913, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.2723, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.973, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4463, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.7761, "possession_lost": 4.1673, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5914, "aerial_lost": 0.6562, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9845, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9352, "fouls_drawn": 0.9845, "blocks": 0.6562, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4463, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.7761, "possession_lost": 4.1673, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5914, "aerial_lost": 0.6562, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9845, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.9156, "fouls_drawn": 0.9632, "blocks": 0.6562, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.8417, "total_progression": 7.7315, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1341 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0352, "history_matches": 3, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1642, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.9845, "after": 0.9632 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9352, "after": 0.9156 }, { "stat": 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"assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.2164, "total_progression": 10.415, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1806, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.412, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.91 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.91, "projection_minutes": 14.78, "minutes_scale": 1.3471, "appearance_probability": 0.412 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5479, "tackles": 0.7072, "tackles_won": 0.4012, "clearances": 2.0877, "aerial_won": 0.5171, "total_shots": 0.1806, "rating": 6.5991, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 28.1353, "accurate_pass": 22.5215, "duels_won": 2.9616, "total_long_balls": 5.6137, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2598, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.5319, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3933, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9896, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.0698, "possession_lost": 5.6137, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1438, "aerial_lost": 0.6562, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3262, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2334, "fouls_drawn": 1.2975, "blocks": 0.884, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.2164, "total_progression": 10.415, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1806, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.412, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.91 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5479, "tackles": 0.7072, "tackles_won": 0.4012, "clearances": 2.0877, "aerial_won": 0.5171, "total_shots": 0.1806, "rating": 6.5991, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 28.1353, "accurate_pass": 22.5215, "duels_won": 2.9616, "total_long_balls": 5.6137, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2598, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.5319, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3933, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9896, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.0698, "possession_lost": 5.6137, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1438, "aerial_lost": 0.6562, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3262, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2334, "fouls_drawn": 1.2975, "blocks": 0.884, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.2164, "total_progression": 10.415, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1806, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.412, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.91, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.144, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.412, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5479, "tackles": 0.7072, "tackles_won": 0.4012, "clearances": 2.0877, "aerial_won": 0.5171, "total_shots": 0.1806, "rating": 6.5991, "minutes": 19.91, "total_pass": 28.1353, "accurate_pass": 22.5215, "duels_won": 2.9616, "total_long_balls": 5.6137, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2598, 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"substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 811, "fifa_rank": 673.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } } ] }, "Unai Núñez": { "player_id": 892521, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 186, "market_value": 3300000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8167, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 1.9408, "dispossessed": 0.3871, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.217, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.59, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.144, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416299, "match_date": "2026-09-18", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0537, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 61, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 5, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416323, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": 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"ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416306, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 37, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421053, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 70, "accurate_pass": 65, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083739, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2023, "expected_assists": 0.1132, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, 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"league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083255, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Girona FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3298, "combined_rank_score": 1247.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 91.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.5, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 2403.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8167, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Unai Núñez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nobel Mendy", "ranking": 3293 }, { "player_name": "Michael Zetterer", "ranking": 3294 }, { "player_name": "Lukas Nmecha", "ranking": 3295 }, { "player_name": "Ruslan Malinovskyi", "ranking": 3296 }, { "player_name": "Ibrahim Mbaye", "ranking": 3297 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Rodrigo Muniz", "ranking": 3299 }, { "player_name": "Raíllo", "ranking": 3300 }, { "player_name": "Gelson Martins", "ranking": 3301 }, { "player_name": "Abel Bretones", "ranking": 3302 }, { "player_name": "Chiquinho", "ranking": 3303 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 18, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", 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"players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-18", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1585, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1347, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1145, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0973, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0827, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0703, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0598, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-14", "opponent": 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"aerialWon", "predicted": 0.628642201423645, "model_output": 0.6286, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8219 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1192 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0364 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0252 } ], "others": -0.0746, "total": 0.6286, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.903127 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.192877 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.057036 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.055206 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.036533 } ], "others_margin": -0.1122 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.18097037076950073, "model_output": 0.181, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2714 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0089 } ], "others": -0.0468, "total": 0.181, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.271364 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.018134 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.009965 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.008938 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.008869 } ], "others_margin": -0.046827 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.816734313964844, "model_output": 6.8167, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": 0.0158, "total": 6.8167, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.025259 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.021917 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.011919 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.011812 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01134 } ], "others_margin": 0.01587 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 18, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9958, quality 0.441)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3925, "tackles": 0.6957, "tackles_won": 0.423, "clearances": 1.6167, "aerial_won": 0.626, "total_shots": 0.1802, "rating": 6.8167, "minutes": 27.1, "total_pass": 19.8715, "accurate_pass": 16.7747, "duels_won": 1.7206, "total_long_balls": 4.1506, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6022, "total_own_half_passes": 10.3016, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.9145, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5699, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8603, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.444, "possession_lost": 3.871, "dispossessed": 0.3871, "duels_lost": 1.4409, "aerial_lost": 0.6668, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7742, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3871, "fouls_drawn": 0.5593, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"shots_off_target": 0.2019 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-09T10:04:11.914604+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-18", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.3068, "creative_index": 0.0601, "expectedGoals": 0.0061, "expectedAssists": 0.0224, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.003 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.29666611552238464, "model_output": 0.2967, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3715 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0493 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0352 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0242 } ], "others": -0.054, "total": 0.2967, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.543292 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.113716 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.113402 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.089847 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.066677 } ], "others_margin": -0.167398 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.01749003492295742, "model_output": 0.0175, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0357 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0023 } ], "others": -0.0086, "total": 0.0175, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.537604 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.26188 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.181477 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.124419 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.082683 } ], "others_margin": -0.402013 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.03571626543998718, "model_output": 0.0357, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0052 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.003 } ], "others": -0.0117, "total": 0.0357, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.323294 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.144225 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.101954 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.082576 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.065305 } ], "others_margin": -0.283 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.015584283508360386, "model_output": 0.0156, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.042 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0039 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0062, "total": 0.0156, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.587924 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.408004 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.231048 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.150462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.084919 } ], "others_margin": -0.339217 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.024287117645144463, "model_output": 0.0243, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0362 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0023 } ], "others": -0.0059, "total": 0.0243, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.46345 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.287834 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.261709 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.084957 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.074742 } ], "others_margin": -0.218702 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.07392621785402298, "model_output": 0.0739, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1462 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.042 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0273 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.004 } ], "others": -0.0171, "total": 0.0739, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.599875 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.26942 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.224712 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.13301 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.042941 } ], "others_margin": -0.207692 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.27579519152641296, "model_output": 0.2758, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3363 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1795 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.043 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0321 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0308 } ], "others": -0.093, "total": 0.2758, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.336272 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.17951 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.04304 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.032103 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.030766 } ], "others_margin": -0.092979 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.689518928527832, "model_output": 6.6895, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0717 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0063 } ], "others": -0.0219, "total": 6.6895, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.071717 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.037428 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.015243 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.006935 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.006289 } ], "others_margin": -0.02174 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0011, quality 0.541)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.297, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "assists": 0.0358, "assist_rate": 0.0358, "expected_goals": 0.0156, "goals": 0.0243, "goal_rate": 0.0243, "shots_on_target": 0.074, "total_shots": 0.2761, "rating": 6.6895, "minutes": 21.48, "total_pass": 11.1008, "accurate_pass": 8.8428, "duels_won": 2.2914, "total_long_balls": 0.2514, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9804, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5147, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8624, "crosses_total": 0.1661, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.941, "possession_lost": 3.1656, "dispossessed": 0.3078, "duels_lost": 1.6761, "aerial_won": 0.5222, "aerial_lost": 0.7681, "interceptions": 0.2401, "tackles_won": 1.0627, "tackles": 1.0627, "clearances": 0.7504, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4981, "fouls": 0.102, "fouls_drawn": 0.7066, "blocks": 0.0533, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.0889, "total_progression": 45.9724, "progressive_carries": 2.1646, "shots_off_target": 0.2021 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11600000, "quality_factor": 0.5411, "boost_factor": 1.0011, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0095)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.297, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "assists": 0.0355, "assist_rate": 0.0355, "expected_goals": 0.0156, "goals": 0.0241, "goal_rate": 0.0241, "shots_on_target": 0.0733, "total_shots": 0.2735, "rating": 6.6895, "minutes": 21.48, "total_pass": 11.1008, "accurate_pass": 8.8428, "duels_won": 2.2914, "total_long_balls": 0.2514, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9804, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5147, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8624, "crosses_total": 0.1645, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.941, "possession_lost": 3.1656, "dispossessed": 0.3078, "duels_lost": 1.6761, "aerial_won": 0.5222, "aerial_lost": 0.7681, "interceptions": 0.24, "tackles_won": 1.0537, "tackles": 1.0627, "clearances": 0.7504, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4981, "fouls": 0.1032, "fouls_drawn": 0.7021, "blocks": 0.0533, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.0889, "total_progression": 45.9724, "progressive_carries": 2.1646, "shots_off_target": 0.2021 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0095, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2387, "prior_reliability": 0.14, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.0627, "after": 1.0537 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.5 to 22.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.32)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3095, "expected_assists": 0.0182, "assists": 0.037, "assist_rate": 0.037, "expected_goals": 0.0163, "goals": 0.0251, "goal_rate": 0.0251, "shots_on_target": 0.0764, "total_shots": 0.287, "rating": 6.6895, "minutes": 22.38, "total_pass": 11.5673, "accurate_pass": 9.2144, "duels_won": 2.3877, "total_long_balls": 0.262, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6948, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0636, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8725, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1508, "crosses_total": 0.1714, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.6109, "possession_lost": 3.2986, "dispossessed": 0.3078, "duels_lost": 1.7465, "aerial_won": 0.5441, "aerial_lost": 0.7681, "interceptions": 0.2501, "tackles_won": 1.098, "tackles": 1.1074, "clearances": 0.7819, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4981, "fouls": 0.1075, 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"dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5147 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1606 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0452 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0446 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0361 } ], "others": 0.0186, "total": 0.7809, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.514674 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.160612 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.045173 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.044627 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.036068 } ], "others_margin": 0.018632 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7017903327941895, "model_output": 6.7018, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": 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"role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.4386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0266, "ball_carries": 6.3502, "total_progression": 19.8129, "progressive_carries": 1.1286, "shots_off_target": 0.6005, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.16 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.48 (squad xG sum 1.4515, xG scale 1.0175, xA scale 1.0198, team xA 0.96 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6904, "expected_assists": 0.0873, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0671, "goal_rate": 0.0989, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2808, "total_shots": 0.8813, "rating": 6.7018, "minutes": 22.16, "total_pass": 9.1755, "accurate_pass": 7.9077, "duels_won": 1.5848, "total_long_balls": 1.0627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7457, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8449, 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0.38599470257759094, "model_output": 0.386, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2781 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": 0.0195, "total": 0.386, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.532104 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.061675 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.049343 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 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"totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0691 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0367, "total": 6.6418, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.069113 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024863 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.014194 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.013073 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.011374 } ], "others_margin": -0.036614 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9982, quality 0.487)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.114, "goals": 0.1198, "goal_rate": 0.1198, "shots_on_target": 0.2577, "total_shots": 0.7655, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "key_pass": 0.5886, "rating": 6.6418, "minutes": 12.92, "total_pass": 17.2806, "accurate_pass": 14.6095, "duels_won": 1.4212, "total_long_balls": 0.9328, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6126, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4209, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1174, "crosses_total": 1.63, "crosses_accurate": 0.4081, "touches": 26.666, "possession_lost": 6.4744, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 3.4885, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 1.5746, "won_contest": 0.6599, "ball_recovery": 2.7808, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 0.988, "fouls_drawn": 0.3075, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1913, "tackles_won": 0.1336, "tackles": 0.276, "clearances": 0.2398, "blocks": 0.0508, "big_chances_created": 0.2199, "big_chances_missed": 0.6211, "xgot": 0.3485, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.3741, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5078 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7000000, "quality_factor": 0.4866, "boost_factor": 0.9982, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.9 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.171, "goals": 0.1797, "goal_rate": 0.1797, "shots_on_target": 0.3865, "total_shots": 1.1482, "expected_assists": 0.0638, "key_pass": 0.8829, "rating": 6.6418, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.3619, "won_contest": 0.9899, "ball_recovery": 4.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 1.482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4612, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2869, "tackles_won": 0.2004, "tackles": 0.414, "clearances": 0.3597, "blocks": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.3299, "big_chances_missed": 0.9316, "xgot": 0.5227, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5611, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7617, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.49, "projection_minutes": 12.92, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.568 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.171, "goals": 0.1797, "goal_rate": 0.1797, "shots_on_target": 0.3865, "total_shots": 1.1482, "expected_assists": 0.0638, "key_pass": 0.8829, "rating": 6.6418, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.3619, "won_contest": 0.9899, "ball_recovery": 4.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 1.482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4612, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2869, "tackles_won": 0.2004, "tackles": 0.414, "clearances": 0.3597, "blocks": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.3299, "big_chances_missed": 0.9316, "xgot": 0.5227, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5611, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7617, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.48 (squad xG sum 1.4515, xG scale 1.0175, xA scale 1.0198, team xA 0.96 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.174, "goal_rate": 0.1797, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3865, "total_shots": 1.1482, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 0.8829, "rating": 6.6418, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.3619, "won_contest": 0.9899, "ball_recovery": 4.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 1.482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4612, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2869, "tackles_won": 0.2004, "tackles": 0.414, "clearances": 0.3597, "blocks": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.3299, "big_chances_missed": 0.9316, "xgot": 0.5319, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5611, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7617, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.144, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0394, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.477, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4515, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9414, "team_expected_assists": 0.9601, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0175, "xa_scale": 1.0198, "opponent_lambda": 0.765, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.568 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.174, "goal_rate": 0.1797, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3865, "total_shots": 1.1482, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 0.8829, "rating": 6.6418, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, 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"match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2281, "fifa_rank": 968.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.174, "goal_rate": 0.1797, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3865, "total_shots": 1.1482, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 0.8829, "rating": 6.6418, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, 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"finishing_factor": 1.0394, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0907, "scorer_weight": 0.1027, "squad_weight_total": 1.6319, "weight_share": 0.0629, "finishing_factor": 1.0394, "appearance_weight": 0.568, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.5526, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5526, "runner_up": "Marcos Fernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2932 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.174, "goal_rate": 0.1797, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3865, "total_shots": 1.1482, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 0.8829, "rating": 6.6418, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.3619, "won_contest": 0.9899, "ball_recovery": 4.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 1.482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4612, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2869, "tackles_won": 0.2004, "tackles": 0.414, "clearances": 0.3597, "blocks": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.3299, "big_chances_missed": 0.9316, "xgot": 0.5319, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5611, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7617, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.144, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0907, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0358, "finishing_factor": 1.0394, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0358, "provider_weight": 0.0296, "squad_weight_total": 0.9581, "weight_share": 0.0309, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.568, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Javier Hernández", "weight": 0.1889, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1889, "runner_up": "Edu Expósito", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1344, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Javi Puado": { "player_id": 891511, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 178, "market_value": 7000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.174, "goal_rate": 0.1797, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6418, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5319, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, 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0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0367, "total": 6.6418, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.069113 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024863 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.014194 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.013073 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.011374 } ], "others_margin": -0.036614 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9982, quality 0.487)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.114, "goals": 0.1198, "goal_rate": 0.1198, "shots_on_target": 0.2577, "total_shots": 0.7655, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "key_pass": 0.5886, "rating": 6.6418, "minutes": 12.92, "total_pass": 17.2806, "accurate_pass": 14.6095, "duels_won": 1.4212, "total_long_balls": 0.9328, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6126, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4209, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1174, "crosses_total": 1.63, "crosses_accurate": 0.4081, "touches": 26.666, "possession_lost": 6.4744, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 3.4885, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 1.5746, "won_contest": 0.6599, "ball_recovery": 2.7808, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 0.988, "fouls_drawn": 0.3075, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1913, "tackles_won": 0.1336, "tackles": 0.276, "clearances": 0.2398, "blocks": 0.0508, "big_chances_created": 0.2199, "big_chances_missed": 0.6211, "xgot": 0.3485, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.3741, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5078 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7000000, "quality_factor": 0.4866, "boost_factor": 0.9982, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.9 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.171, "goals": 0.1797, "goal_rate": 0.1797, "shots_on_target": 0.3865, "total_shots": 1.1482, "expected_assists": 0.0638, "key_pass": 0.8829, "rating": 6.6418, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.3619, "won_contest": 0.9899, "ball_recovery": 4.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 1.482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4612, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2869, "tackles_won": 0.2004, "tackles": 0.414, "clearances": 0.3597, "blocks": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.3299, "big_chances_missed": 0.9316, "xgot": 0.5227, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5611, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7617, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.49, "projection_minutes": 12.92, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.568 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.171, "goals": 0.1797, "goal_rate": 0.1797, "shots_on_target": 0.3865, "total_shots": 1.1482, "expected_assists": 0.0638, "key_pass": 0.8829, "rating": 6.6418, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.3619, "won_contest": 0.9899, "ball_recovery": 4.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 1.482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4612, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2869, "tackles_won": 0.2004, "tackles": 0.414, "clearances": 0.3597, "blocks": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.3299, "big_chances_missed": 0.9316, "xgot": 0.5227, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5611, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7617, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.48 (squad xG sum 1.4515, xG scale 1.0175, xA scale 1.0198, team xA 0.96 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.174, "goal_rate": 0.1797, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3865, "total_shots": 1.1482, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 0.8829, "rating": 6.6418, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.3619, "won_contest": 0.9899, "ball_recovery": 4.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 1.482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4612, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2869, "tackles_won": 0.2004, "tackles": 0.414, "clearances": 0.3597, "blocks": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.3299, "big_chances_missed": 0.9316, "xgot": 0.5319, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5611, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7617, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.144, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0394, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.477, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4515, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9414, "team_expected_assists": 0.9601, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0175, "xa_scale": 1.0198, "opponent_lambda": 0.765, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.568 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.174, "goal_rate": 0.1797, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3865, "total_shots": 1.1482, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 0.8829, "rating": 6.6418, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.3619, "won_contest": 0.9899, "ball_recovery": 4.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 1.482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4612, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2869, "tackles_won": 0.2004, "tackles": 0.414, "clearances": 0.3597, "blocks": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.3299, "big_chances_missed": 0.9316, "xgot": 0.5319, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5611, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7617, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.144, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0394, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2281, "fifa_rank": 968.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.174, "goal_rate": 0.1797, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3865, "total_shots": 1.1482, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 0.8829, "rating": 6.6418, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.3619, "won_contest": 0.9899, "ball_recovery": 4.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 1.482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4612, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2869, "tackles_won": 0.2004, "tackles": 0.414, "clearances": 0.3597, "blocks": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.3299, "big_chances_missed": 0.9316, "xgot": 0.5319, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5611, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7617, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.144, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0907, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0394, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0907, "scorer_weight": 0.1027, "squad_weight_total": 1.6319, "weight_share": 0.0629, "finishing_factor": 1.0394, "appearance_weight": 0.568, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.5526, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5526, "runner_up": "Marcos Fernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2932 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.174, "goal_rate": 0.1797, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3865, "total_shots": 1.1482, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 0.8829, "rating": 6.6418, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 25.9209, "accurate_pass": 21.9143, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.3992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6761, "crosses_total": 2.445, "crosses_accurate": 0.6121, "touches": 39.999, "possession_lost": 9.7116, "dispossessed": 0.4326, "duels_lost": 5.2328, "aerial_lost": 0.8408, "total_contest": 2.3619, "won_contest": 0.9899, "ball_recovery": 4.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.4141, "fouls": 1.482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4612, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2869, "tackles_won": 0.2004, "tackles": 0.414, "clearances": 0.3597, "blocks": 0.0762, "big_chances_created": 0.3299, "big_chances_missed": 0.9316, "xgot": 0.5319, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5611, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7617, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.144, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0907, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0358, "finishing_factor": 1.0394, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0358, "provider_weight": 0.0296, "squad_weight_total": 0.9581, "weight_share": 0.0309, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.568, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Javier Hernández", "weight": 0.1889, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1889, "runner_up": "Edu Expósito", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1344, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] }, "Cyril Ngonge": { "player_id": 877037, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 179, "market_value": 6800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0873, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0671, "goal_rate": 0.0989, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7018, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 4.0372, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0271, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.144, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0329, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0424, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0922, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083221, "match_date": "2026-04-27", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0146, "expected_assists": 0.2677, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083330, "match_date": "2026-04-23", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0848, "expected_assists": 0.1093, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083113, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081811, "match_date": "2026-04-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0153, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, 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0.7809035778045654, "model_output": 0.7809, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5147 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1606 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0452 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0446 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0361 } ], "others": 0.0186, "total": 0.7809, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.514674 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.160612 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.045173 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.044627 }, { 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.484)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6104, "expected_assists": 0.0757, "assists": 0.0867, "assist_rate": 0.0867, "expected_goals": 0.0583, "goals": 0.0874, "goal_rate": 0.0874, "shots_on_target": 0.2483, "total_shots": 0.7792, "rating": 6.7018, "minutes": 19.59, "total_pass": 8.1123, "accurate_pass": 6.9914, "duels_won": 1.4012, "total_long_balls": 0.9396, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6593, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0606, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0606, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0518, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9308, "crosses_total": 2.2264, "crosses_accurate": 0.6681, "touches": 15.2851, "possession_lost": 3.5694, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6078, "aerial_won": 0.2803, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.61, "tackles_won": 0.2802, "tackles": 0.5605, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8901, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3297, "fouls": 0.7175, "fouls_drawn": 0.5605, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3878, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0235, "ball_carries": 5.6144, "total_progression": 17.5172, "progressive_carries": 0.9978, "shots_off_target": 0.5309 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6800000, "quality_factor": 0.4842, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.6 to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6904, "expected_assists": 0.0856, "assists": 0.0981, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "expected_goals": 0.0659, "goals": 0.0989, "goal_rate": 0.0989, "shots_on_target": 0.2808, "total_shots": 0.8813, "rating": 6.7018, "minutes": 22.16, "total_pass": 9.1755, "accurate_pass": 7.9077, "duels_won": 1.5848, "total_long_balls": 1.0627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7457, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.577, "crosses_total": 2.5182, "crosses_accurate": 0.7557, "touches": 17.2883, "possession_lost": 4.0372, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8185, "aerial_won": 0.317, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6899, "tackles_won": 0.3169, "tackles": 0.634, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0068, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3297, "fouls": 0.8115, "fouls_drawn": 0.634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0266, "ball_carries": 6.3502, "total_progression": 19.8129, "progressive_carries": 1.1286, "shots_off_target": 0.6005, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.16 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.16, "projection_minutes": 19.59, "minutes_scale": 1.1311, "appearance_probability": 0.507 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6904, "expected_assists": 0.0856, "assists": 0.0981, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "expected_goals": 0.0659, "goals": 0.0989, "goal_rate": 0.0989, "shots_on_target": 0.2808, "total_shots": 0.8813, "rating": 6.7018, "minutes": 22.16, "total_pass": 9.1755, "accurate_pass": 7.9077, "duels_won": 1.5848, "total_long_balls": 1.0627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7457, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.577, "crosses_total": 2.5182, "crosses_accurate": 0.7557, "touches": 17.2883, "possession_lost": 4.0372, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8185, "aerial_won": 0.317, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6899, "tackles_won": 0.3169, "tackles": 0.634, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0068, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3297, "fouls": 0.8115, "fouls_drawn": 0.634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0266, "ball_carries": 6.3502, "total_progression": 19.8129, "progressive_carries": 1.1286, "shots_off_target": 0.6005, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.16 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.48 (squad xG sum 1.4515, xG scale 1.0175, xA scale 1.0198, team xA 0.96 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6904, "expected_assists": 0.0873, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0671, "goal_rate": 0.0989, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2808, "total_shots": 0.8813, "rating": 6.7018, "minutes": 22.16, "total_pass": 9.1755, "accurate_pass": 7.9077, "duels_won": 1.5848, "total_long_balls": 1.0627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7457, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.577, "crosses_total": 2.5182, "crosses_accurate": 0.7557, "touches": 17.2883, "possession_lost": 4.0372, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8185, "aerial_won": 0.317, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6899, "tackles_won": 0.3169, "tackles": 0.634, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0068, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3297, "fouls": 0.8115, "fouls_drawn": 0.634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0271, "ball_carries": 6.3502, "total_progression": 19.8129, "progressive_carries": 1.1286, "shots_off_target": 0.6005, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.144, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0922 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.477, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4515, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9414, "team_expected_assists": 0.9601, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0175, "xa_scale": 1.0198, "opponent_lambda": 0.765, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.507 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6904, "expected_assists": 0.0873, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0671, "goal_rate": 0.0989, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2808, "total_shots": 0.8813, "rating": 6.7018, "minutes": 22.16, "total_pass": 9.1755, "accurate_pass": 7.9077, "duels_won": 1.5848, "total_long_balls": 1.0627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7457, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.577, "crosses_total": 2.5182, "crosses_accurate": 0.7557, "touches": 17.2883, "possession_lost": 4.0372, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8185, "aerial_won": 0.317, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6899, "tackles_won": 0.3169, "tackles": 0.634, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0068, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3297, "fouls": 0.8115, "fouls_drawn": 0.634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0271, "ball_carries": 6.3502, "total_progression": 19.8129, "progressive_carries": 1.1286, "shots_off_target": 0.6005, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.144, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0922, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4446, "fifa_rank": 4144.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6904, "expected_assists": 0.0873, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0671, "goal_rate": 0.0989, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2808, "total_shots": 0.8813, "rating": 6.7018, "minutes": 22.16, "total_pass": 9.1755, "accurate_pass": 7.9077, "duels_won": 1.5848, "total_long_balls": 1.0627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7457, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.577, "crosses_total": 2.5182, "crosses_accurate": 0.7557, "touches": 17.2883, "possession_lost": 4.0372, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8185, "aerial_won": 0.317, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6899, "tackles_won": 0.3169, "tackles": 0.634, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0068, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3297, "fouls": 0.8115, "fouls_drawn": 0.634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0271, "ball_carries": 6.3502, "total_progression": 19.8129, "progressive_carries": 1.1286, "shots_off_target": 0.6005, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.144, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0329, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0922, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0329, "scorer_weight": 0.0425, "squad_weight_total": 1.6319, "weight_share": 0.0261, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.507, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.5526, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5526, "runner_up": "Marcos Fernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2932 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6904, "expected_assists": 0.0873, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0671, "goal_rate": 0.0989, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2808, "total_shots": 0.8813, "rating": 6.7018, "minutes": 22.16, "total_pass": 9.1755, "accurate_pass": 7.9077, "duels_won": 1.5848, "total_long_balls": 1.0627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7457, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.577, "crosses_total": 2.5182, "crosses_accurate": 0.7557, "touches": 17.2883, "possession_lost": 4.0372, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8185, "aerial_won": 0.317, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6899, "tackles_won": 0.3169, "tackles": 0.634, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0068, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3297, "fouls": 0.8115, "fouls_drawn": 0.634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0271, "ball_carries": 6.3502, "total_progression": 19.8129, "progressive_carries": 1.1286, "shots_off_target": 0.6005, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.144, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0329, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0424, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0922, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0424, "provider_weight": 0.0483, "squad_weight_total": 0.9581, "weight_share": 0.0505, "creation_factor": 1.0922, "appearance_weight": 0.507, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Javier Hernández", "weight": 0.1889, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1889, "runner_up": "Edu Expósito", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1344, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.48, "expected_assists": 0.96, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 345, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 6.85, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Chupete", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Quilindschy Hartman", "Leandro Cabrera" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.511, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.191, "xg_contribution": 0.3175, "xg_multiplier": 0.9867, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Quilindschy Hartman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.809 }, { "player": "Leandro Cabrera", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.809 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chupete (ST) is evenly matched against Quilindschy Hartman and Leandro Cabrera in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.318 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Joaquín Muñoz", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 1400000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Omar El Hilali" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.589, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.317, "xg_contribution": 0.0776, "xg_multiplier": 0.7901, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Omar El Hilali", "role": "RB", "market_value": 15900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.683 } ], "duel_analysis": "Joaquín Muñoz (LM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Omar El Hilali in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.79 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.078 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Martínez", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Clemens Riedel" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.449, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.432, "xg_contribution": 0.0457, "xg_multiplier": 0.9591, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Clemens Riedel", "role": "LB", "market_value": 3900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.568 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Martínez (RM) is evenly matched against Clemens Riedel in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.046 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "David Larrubia", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 5300000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.466, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Moscardo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.493, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.382, "xg_contribution": 0.0784, "xg_multiplier": 0.9001, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Moscardo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 7500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.618 } ], "duel_analysis": "David Larrubia (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Gabriel Moscardo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.078 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Carlos Dotor", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1200000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Moscardo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.493, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.398, "xg_contribution": 0.0662, "xg_multiplier": 0.9236, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Moscardo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 7500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.602 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Dotor (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Gabriel Moscardo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.066 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Dani Lorenzo", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1400000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Moscardo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.493, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.382, "xg_contribution": 0.0435, "xg_multiplier": 0.9, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Moscardo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 7500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.618 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dani Lorenzo (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Gabriel Moscardo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Javier Hernández", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 1600000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Rafa Garrido" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.5, "xg_contribution": 0.1584, "xg_multiplier": 1.0294, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rafa Garrido", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.5 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javier Hernández (LW) is evenly matched against Rafa Garrido in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.158 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Roberto Fernández", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Ángel Recio", "Fernando Calero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.3, "xg_contribution": 0.4619, "xg_multiplier": 1.1463, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ángel Recio", "role": "CB", "market_value": 315000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.7 }, { "player": "Fernando Calero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.7 } ], "duel_analysis": "Roberto Fernández (ST) is slightly favored against Ángel Recio and Fernando Calero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €1M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.15 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.462 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Marcos Fernández", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Ángel Recio", "Fernando Calero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2828, "xg_multiplier": 0.953, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ángel Recio", "role": "CB", "market_value": 315000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Fernando Calero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marcos Fernández (ST) is evenly matched against Ángel Recio and Fernando Calero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.283 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Bryan Zaragoza", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7500000, "attacker_height": 165, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.493, "defenders": [ "Ángel Recio", "Fernando Calero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1272, "xg_multiplier": 0.9483, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ángel Recio", "role": "CB", "market_value": 315000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Fernando Calero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bryan Zaragoza (ST) is evenly matched against Ángel Recio and Fernando Calero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.127 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Gabriel Moscardo", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 7500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.493, "defenders": [ "David Larrubia" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.466, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.468, "xg_contribution": 0.0753, "xg_multiplier": 1.0999, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "David Larrubia", "role": "CM", "market_value": 5300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.532 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gabriel Moscardo (CDM) is slightly favored against David Larrubia in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.10 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.075 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Edu Expósito", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 4500000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.456, "defenders": [ "David Larrubia" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.466, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.409, "xg_contribution": 0.1394, "xg_multiplier": 1.0128, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "David Larrubia", "role": "CM", "market_value": 5300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.591 } ], "duel_analysis": "Edu Expósito (CDM) is evenly matched against David Larrubia in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.139 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.493, "away_midfield_power": 0.462, "home_creative_power": 0.403, "away_creative_power": 0.482, "home_defensive_power": 0.378, "away_defensive_power": 0.419, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.516, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "David Larrubia", "Dani Lorenzo", "Joaquín Muñoz", "Pablo Martínez", "Carlos Dotor" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Javier Hernández", "Gabriel Moscardo", "Edu Expósito" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.4, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "David Larrubia vs Gabriel Moscardo", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.002, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.005 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.07, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.765, "away_lambda": 1.477, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Chupete": { "opponents": [ "Quilindschy Hartman", "Leandro Cabrera" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Joaquín Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Omar El Hilali", "Gabriel Moscardo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Clemens Riedel", "Edu Expósito" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "David Larrubia": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Moscardo", "Edu Expósito" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Carlos Dotor": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Moscardo", "Edu Expósito" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dani Lorenzo": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Moscardo", "Javier Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rafa Garrido": { "opponents": [ "Javier Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ángel Recio": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández", "Marcos Fernández", "Bryan Zaragoza" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Fernando Calero": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández", "Marcos Fernández", "Bryan Zaragoza" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alfonso Herrero": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández", "Bryan Zaragoza" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Carlos Puga": { "opponents": [ "Marcos Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Quilindschy Hartman": { "opponents": [ "Chupete" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Leandro Cabrera": { "opponents": [ "Chupete" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Omar El Hilali": { "opponents": [ "Joaquín Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Clemens Riedel": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gabriel Moscardo": { "opponents": [ "David Larrubia", "Carlos Dotor", "Dani Lorenzo", "Joaquín Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Javier Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Rafa Garrido", "Dani Lorenzo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Roberto Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Ángel Recio", "Fernando Calero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Marcos Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Ángel Recio", "Fernando Calero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bryan Zaragoza": { "opponents": [ "Ángel Recio", "Fernando Calero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Edu Expósito": { "opponents": [ "David Larrubia", "Carlos Dotor", "Pablo Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Marko Dmitrović": { "opponents": [ "Chupete", "David Larrubia" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — David Larrubia vs Gabriel Moscardo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 1.24. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.088, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9849, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0063, "home_midfield_factor": 1.002, "away_midfield_factor": 1.005, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4497, "away_avg_quality": 0.5017, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0519, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.8672, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.8647, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.482, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1468, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0807, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.047, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.6289, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8092 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.002, "result": 0.8108 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.96, "result": 0.7784 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 0.8951 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.8756, "result": 0.7838 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 0.7921 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9849, "result": 0.7802 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0, "result": 0.7802 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.7802, "result": 0.7802, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1468, "factor": 0.953, "pre": 0.7802, "result": 0.7435 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7435 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1258, "result": 0.8698 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.4123, "result": 0.7655 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.7655, "result": 0.765, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 0.765 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 0.765 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 0.765, "result": 0.765, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 0.765 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.245, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.2712 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.005, "result": 1.2776 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.07, "result": 1.367 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.367 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0139, "result": 1.386 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.4008 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0063, "result": 1.4096 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.088, "result": 1.4976 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.4976, "result": 1.4976, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1468, "factor": 1.0807, "pre": 1.4976, "result": 1.6185 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.6185 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1745, "result": 1.7925 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.4074, "result": 1.4767 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.4767, "result": 1.477, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.477 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.477 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.477, "result": 1.477, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.477 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1258, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1745, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Málaga CF", "away_squad": "Espanyol", "home_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.412, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.407, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.765, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.477, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.7655, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.4767, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 0.765, "final_away_lambda": 1.477 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 20, "opponent_position": 15, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8756, "attack_index": 0.776, "defense_concede_index": 0.929, "form_multiplier": 0.982, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.18, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.41, "team_ppg": 0.87, "opponent_ppg": 1.17 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 15, "opponent_position": 20, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0139, "attack_index": 0.929, "defense_concede_index": 1.105, "form_multiplier": 1.018, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.41, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.68, "team_ppg": 1.17, "opponent_ppg": 0.87 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Málaga vs Espanyol. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-4-2 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 0.765, Away 1.477). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 0.765, Away 1.477 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 7, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Málaga CF", "away_squad": "Espanyol", "home_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.412, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.407, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 0.765, "away_lambda": 1.477, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.765, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.477 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-09T13:31:07Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }