{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261010", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.128, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Rayo Vallecano", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.278, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.128 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1302 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0975 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0953 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0864 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0975, "0-1": 0.0953, "0-2": 0.0482, "0-3": 0.0161, "0-4": 0.004, "0-5": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.128, "1-1": 0.1302, "1-2": 0.0646, "1-3": 0.0215, "1-4": 0.0054, "1-5": 0.0011, "2-0": 0.0864, "2-1": 0.0864, "2-2": 0.0432, "2-3": 0.0144, "2-4": 0.0036, "2-5": 0.0007, "3-0": 0.0386, "3-1": 0.0386, "3-2": 0.0193, "3-3": 0.0064, "3-4": 0.0016, "4-0": 0.0129, "4-1": 0.0129, "4-2": 0.0065, "4-3": 0.0022, "4-4": 0.0005, "5-0": 0.0035, "5-1": 0.0035, "5-2": 0.0017, "5-3": 0.0006, "6-0": 0.0008, "6-1": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4437, "draw": 0.278, "away_win": 0.2783 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4143, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5857, "btts_yes": 0.4675, "btts_no": 0.5325, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3679, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2621 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.74, "MCR": 6.89, "ATR": 6.93, "GK": 7.0 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.86, "MCR": 6.91, "ATR": 6.5, "GK": 7.01 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Sergio Camello", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Isi Palazón vs Peio Canales will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.89, Away: 0.60. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel." }, "confidence": 0.71, "home_lambda": 1.339, "away_lambda": 1.0, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1302, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4437, "draw": 0.278, "away_win": 0.2783 }, "favorite": "Rayo Vallecano", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4437, "fair_spread": 0.339, "fair_total": 2.339, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Rayo Vallecano", "estimate": 1.339, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Athletic Club", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4143, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4675, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Rayo Vallecano", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3679, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Athletic Club", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2621, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Sergio Camello (Rayo Vallecano)", "estimate": 0.3505, "probability": 0.2957, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Iñaki Williams (Athletic Club)", "estimate": 0.3038, "probability": 0.262, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Adrià Pedrosa (Rayo Vallecano)", "estimate": 0.1697, "probability": 0.1561, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta (Athletic Club)", "estimate": 0.1341, "probability": 0.1255, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.339, "expected_total_shots": 30, "expected_total_passes": 849, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.0, "possession_home_pct": 48.9, "possession_away_pct": 51.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Rayo Vallecano", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4437, "script": "Rayo Vallecano is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.34 goals and fair total 2.34.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 15 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Athletic Club must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Rayo Vallecano lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Rayo Vallecano chance creation leans on Sergio Camello against Aymeric Laporte, Yeray Álvarez in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Rayo Vallecano: starters carry the main goal usage through Sergio Camello; bench watchlist: Alemão, Pedro Díaz, Giorgi Tsitaishvili.", "Athletic Club: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Nico Williams, Mikel Jauregizar, Gorka Guruzeta.", "Assist usage should flow through Adrià Pedrosa; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Rayo Vallecano tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 15 total first-half shots, and 1.17 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Athletic Club is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Rayo Vallecano.", "Athletic Club wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Rayo Vallecano": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Emil Audero": { "player_id": 318603, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 190, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0895, "rating": 6.9985, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 21, "total_long_balls": 15, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 44, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 0.9873, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 11.862, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0311, "shots_faced": 9.5, "expected_saves": 2.32, "high_pressure_saves": 0.8, "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams, Robert Navarro", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416305, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.2107 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416345, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1487 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416331, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 7, "goals_prevented": -1.0454 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1308, "combined_rank_score": 567.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 925.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9985, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Emil Audero", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Matt Sutton", "ranking": 1303 }, { "player_name": "Pierre Kalulu", "ranking": 1304 }, { "player_name": "Mario Gila", "ranking": 1305 }, { "player_name": "Son Heung Min", "ranking": 1306 }, { "player_name": "Bazoumana Touré", "ranking": 1307 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lukáš Haraslín", "ranking": 1309 }, { "player_name": "Marko Dmitrović", "ranking": 1310 }, { "player_name": "Tino Livramento", "ranking": 1311 }, { "player_name": "Yéremy Pino", "ranking": 1312 }, { "player_name": "Cecilio Waterman", "ranking": 1313 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9873, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 3 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.9962, "goals_prevented": -0.0907, "rating": 6.9985, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 33.103, "accurate_pass": 21.0884, "total_long_balls": 15.0641, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0496, "touches": 45.0019, "clearances": 1.6696, "ball_recovery": 8.2138, "high_claims": 1.9189, "punches": 1.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.4595, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4595, "saves_inside_box": 2.4043, "possession_lost": 12.0146, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 22.5248, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9806 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-09T10:02:40.828652+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 199, "rows": 6796 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.3304, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8638, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.3304, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.1452, "save_contribution": 3.4083, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.4595 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.9961726665496826, "model_output": 2.9962, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0362 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9286, "items": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0349 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0279 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0132 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0124 } ], "others": -0.0204, "total": 2.9962, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.074537, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.011845 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.009376 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.008116 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.004364 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.004113 } ], "others_margin": -0.006791 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.09065808355808258, "model_output": -0.0907, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0385 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0166, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0338 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0314 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0227 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0014, "total": -0.0907, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.03382 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": -0.031379 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.022728 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.01546 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.014716 } ], "others_margin": -0.001398 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.998539924621582, "model_output": 6.9985, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.0328 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0166 } ], "others": -0.0055, "total": 6.9985, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.009122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.032768 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.021305 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.019967 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.019966 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.016642 } ], "others_margin": -0.005403 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9873, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9581, "goals_prevented": -0.0895, "rating": 6.9985, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 32.6826, "accurate_pass": 20.8206, "total_long_balls": 14.8728, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9982, "touches": 44.4304, "clearances": 1.6484, "ball_recovery": 8.1095, "high_claims": 1.8945, "punches": 0.9873, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.4537, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4537, "saves_inside_box": 2.3738, "possession_lost": 11.862, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 22.2387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7395 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9873, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, 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"players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 5.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-14", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 1.9362, "aerialWon": 0.6756, "totalClearance_p90": 2.7286, "totalTackle": 1.6832, "totalPass": 33.5752 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9214932322502136, "model_output": 0.9215, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { 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"margin": -0.072025 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.054684 } ], "others_margin": -0.234409 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8475365042686462, "model_output": 0.8475, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1462 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.066 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0391 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0341 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.03 } ], "others": 0.061, "total": 0.8475, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.146229 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", 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"name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.03472 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.019608 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.015072 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.012474 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.011047 } ], "others_margin": -0.033072 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 37, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0047, quality 0.650)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9258, "tackles": 2.009, "tackles_won": 1.3458, "clearances": 2.4217, "aerial_won": 0.759, "total_shots": 0.8515, "rating": 6.7756, "minutes": 89.66, "total_pass": 38.0522, "accurate_pass": 30.1116, "duels_won": 5.924, "total_long_balls": 3.3785, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3854, "total_own_half_passes": 15.985, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3419, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0671, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7695, "crosses_total": 3.1705, "crosses_accurate": 0.4461, "touches": 70.8392, "possession_lost": 17.8557, "dispossessed": 1.4668, "duels_lost": 5.2558, "aerial_lost": 0.9661, "total_contest": 3.4043, "won_contest": 1.7656, "ball_recovery": 4.9561, "challenges_lost": 0.5712, "fouls": 0.6548, "fouls_drawn": 1.3859, "blocks": 0.2725, "goals": 0.0937, 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} }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.772, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", 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"contribution": 0.0624 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.045 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0197 } ], "others": -0.0518, "total": 0.5629, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.268247 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.14049 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120378 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.07871 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.032516 } ], "others_margin": -0.087924 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.5083922147750854, "model_output": 1.5084, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3692 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1673 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.059 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.059 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0407 } ], "others": -0.0593, "total": 1.5084, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.369158 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.167272 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.059008 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.058991 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.040737 } ], "others_margin": -0.059256 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.843781471252441, "model_output": 6.8438, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0092 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0006, "total": 6.8438, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.048634 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028329 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.015252 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.0092 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.008671 } ], "others_margin": -0.000565 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 29, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0226, "expected_assists": 0.1151, "assists": 0.1421, "assist_rate": 0.1421, "expected_goals": 0.1972, "goals": 0.2262, "goal_rate": 0.2262, "shots_on_target": 0.5616, "total_shots": 1.5049, "rating": 6.8438, "minutes": 80.92, "total_pass": 17.2099, "accurate_pass": 11.6233, "duels_won": 2.3198, "total_long_balls": 1.6097, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8071, "total_own_half_passes": 5.957, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2566, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3666, "crosses_total": 2.6837, "crosses_accurate": 0.5371, "touches": 30.5612, "possession_lost": 10.3277, "dispossessed": 0.3134, "duels_lost": 3.1225, "aerial_won": 0.5515, "aerial_lost": 1.2033, "interceptions": 0.8879, "tackles_won": 0.692, "tackles": 1.2323, "clearances": 1.0237, "total_contest": 0.7732, "won_contest": 0.2443, "challenges_lost": 0.5254, "fouls": 0.5514, "fouls_drawn": 0.3029, "blocks": 0.0888, "big_chances_created": 0.3678, "big_chances_missed": 0.157, "xgot": 0.2227, "ball_carries": 7.2037, "total_progression": 19.2064, "progressive_carries": 1.0037, "shots_off_target": 0.9433 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1500000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9977, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0226, "expected_assists": 0.1151, "assists": 0.145, "assist_rate": 0.145, "expected_goals": 0.1972, "goals": 0.2282, "goal_rate": 0.2282, "shots_on_target": 0.56, "total_shots": 1.4976, "rating": 6.8438, "minutes": 80.92, "total_pass": 17.2099, "accurate_pass": 11.6233, "duels_won": 2.3198, "total_long_balls": 1.6097, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8071, 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"model_output": 1.1592, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2414 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0532 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0486 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0402 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0378 } ], "others": 0.1444, "total": 1.1592, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.306142 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.056456 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.048932 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.040316 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.038003 } ], "others_margin": 0.13307 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.113015174865723, "model_output": 7.113, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0804 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0755 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0691 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0401 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0226 } ], "others": 0.0631, "total": 7.113, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.080435 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.07548 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.069146 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.040071 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.02256 } ], "others_margin": 0.063164 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9972, quality 0.441)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3495, "goals": 0.4373, "goal_rate": 0.4373, "shots_on_target": 0.9144, "total_shots": 2.44, "expected_assists": 0.1066, "key_pass": 1.156, "rating": 7.113, "minutes": 73.28, "total_pass": 19.2252, "accurate_pass": 15.4189, "duels_won": 4.5198, "total_long_balls": 1.1455, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5669, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.7043, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8728, "crosses_total": 0.2293, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 35.6668, "possession_lost": 10.7159, "dispossessed": 1.4503, "duels_lost": 5.6638, "aerial_lost": 1.5659, "total_contest": 2.3801, "won_contest": 1.1912, "ball_recovery": 3.4717, "challenges_lost": 0.3917, "fouls": 1.2111, "fouls_drawn": 1.7763, "assists": 0.1024, "assist_rate": 0.1024, "interceptions": 0.0279, "tackles_won": 0.8054, "tackles": 1.3127, "clearances": 0.074, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4359, "xgot": 0.5515, "offsides": 0.1631, "ball_carries": 10.9693, "total_progression": 30.9674, "progressive_carries": 1.5029, "shots_off_target": 1.5255 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3300000, "quality_factor": 0.4412, "boost_factor": 0.9972, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0134)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3495, "goals": 0.447, "goal_rate": 0.447, "shots_on_target": 0.9226, "total_shots": 2.4433, "expected_assists": 0.1066, "key_pass": 1.156, "rating": 7.113, "minutes": 73.28, "total_pass": 19.2252, "accurate_pass": 15.4189, "duels_won": 4.5198, "total_long_balls": 1.1455, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5669, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.7043, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8728, "crosses_total": 0.2366, 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"expected_assists": 0.0301, "assists": 0.0504, "assist_rate": 0.0504, "expected_goals": 0.0493, "goals": 0.0498, "goal_rate": 0.0498, "shots_on_target": 0.1499, "total_shots": 0.617, "rating": 6.8754, "minutes": 89.46, "total_pass": 51.206, "accurate_pass": 45.5216, "duels_won": 4.7652, "total_long_balls": 5.6677, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8961, "total_own_half_passes": 31.3208, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.1657, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3559, "crosses_total": 0.1628, "crosses_accurate": 0.0113, "touches": 66.9912, "possession_lost": 7.4179, "dispossessed": 0.4731, "duels_lost": 2.9523, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.9913, "interceptions": 2.0256, "tackles_won": 1.4727, "tackles": 1.7953, "clearances": 5.0229, "total_contest": 0.4473, "won_contest": 0.4231, "challenges_lost": 0.3656, "fouls": 1.2496, "fouls_drawn": 0.7199, "blocks": 0.7656, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1042, "xgot": 0.0104, "ball_carries": 17.2527, 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"totalShots", "contribution": 0.4055 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1562 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0656 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0401 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0187 } ], "others": 0.0196, "total": 1.616, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.405484 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.15623 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.065581 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.040119 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.018728 } ], "others_margin": 0.019664 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8249831199646, "model_output": 6.825, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0285 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0261 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0056, "total": 6.825, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.028515 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.026056 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015751 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009546 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.009394 } ], "others_margin": -0.005527 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 29, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9973, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1689, "expected_assists": 0.1107, "assists": 0.0952, "assist_rate": 0.0952, "expected_goals": 0.1504, "goals": 0.15, "goal_rate": 0.15, "shots_on_target": 0.5115, "total_shots": 1.6117, "rating": 6.825, "minutes": 68.61, "total_pass": 23.0156, "accurate_pass": 18.87, "duels_won": 3.9818, "total_long_balls": 2.0012, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0389, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7461, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5067, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2695, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3633, "crosses_total": 2.9135, "crosses_accurate": 0.7603, "touches": 38.3012, "possession_lost": 10.2903, "dispossessed": 1.2827, "duels_lost": 4.7645, "aerial_won": 0.8486, "aerial_lost": 0.9426, "interceptions": 0.0626, "tackles_won": 0.4487, "tackles": 1.2631, "clearances": 1.136, 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0.1107, "assists": 0.0952, "assist_rate": 0.0952, "expected_goals": 0.1464, "goals": 0.146, "goal_rate": 0.146, "shots_on_target": 0.4978, "total_shots": 1.5687, "rating": 6.825, "minutes": 68.61, "total_pass": 23.0156, "accurate_pass": 18.87, "duels_won": 3.9818, "total_long_balls": 2.0012, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0389, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7461, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5067, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2695, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3633, "crosses_total": 2.9135, "crosses_accurate": 0.7603, "touches": 38.3012, "possession_lost": 10.2903, "dispossessed": 1.2827, "duels_lost": 4.7645, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.9426, "interceptions": 0.0626, "tackles_won": 0.4487, "tackles": 1.2631, "clearances": 1.136, "total_contest": 1.1747, "won_contest": 0.5079, "challenges_lost": 0.8591, "fouls": 1.0586, "fouls_drawn": 1.3641, "blocks": 0.1283, "big_chances_created": 0.2721, "big_chances_missed": 0.1719, "xgot": 0.0836, "ball_carries": 9.7696, "total_progression": 25.2967, "progressive_carries": 1.2333, "shots_off_target": 1.0708, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9733, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.432, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.432, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9733, "skill_edge": 0.0019, "height_edge": -0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.4416, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "market_value": 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"description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1689, "expected_assists": 0.1219, "assist_rate": 0.0952, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1612, "goal_rate": 0.146, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4978, "total_shots": 1.5687, "rating": 6.825, "minutes": 68.61, "total_pass": 23.0156, "accurate_pass": 18.87, "duels_won": 3.9818, "total_long_balls": 2.0012, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0389, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7461, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5067, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2695, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3633, "crosses_total": 2.9135, "crosses_accurate": 0.7603, "touches": 38.3012, "possession_lost": 10.2903, "dispossessed": 1.2827, "duels_lost": 4.7645, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.9426, "interceptions": 0.0626, "tackles_won": 0.4487, "tackles": 1.2631, "clearances": 1.136, "total_contest": 1.1747, "won_contest": 0.5079, "challenges_lost": 0.8591, "fouls": 1.0586, 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"importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0438 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0437 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0084 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0376, "total": 0.2753, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126835 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.126513 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.035598 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.026479 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.026127 } ], "others_margin": -0.127806 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9017652869224548, "model_output": 0.9018, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1353 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0802 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0558 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0332 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0322 } ], "others": -0.087, "total": 0.9018, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.135298 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.08018 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.055831 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.033218 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.03217 } ], "others_margin": -0.086937 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.027013778686523, "model_output": 7.027, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1097 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0357 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0212 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0148 } ], "others": 0.0159, "total": 7.027, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.109661 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.03568 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.021236 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 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0.8296, "total_contest": 0.7827, "won_contest": 0.494, "challenges_lost": 0.984, "fouls": 1.3166, "fouls_drawn": 0.7653, "blocks": 0.3961, "big_chances_created": 0.3623, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.021, "ball_carries": 19.0041, "total_progression": 39.0509, "progressive_carries": 0.4659, "shots_off_target": 0.6248 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0146)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.631, "expected_assists": 0.1348, "assists": 0.1051, "assist_rate": 0.1051, "expected_goals": 0.0607, "goals": 0.063, "goal_rate": 0.063, "shots_on_target": 0.2754, "total_shots": 0.8911, "rating": 7.027, "minutes": 79.88, "total_pass": 53.886, "accurate_pass": 46.3363, "duels_won": 3.5376, "total_long_balls": 7.5369, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7985, 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"Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.2164, xG scale 1.1008, xA scale 1.1008, team xA 0.95 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.631, "expected_assists": 0.1484, "assist_rate": 0.1051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0648, "goal_rate": 0.0611, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2673, "total_shots": 0.8737, "rating": 7.027, "minutes": 79.88, "total_pass": 53.886, "accurate_pass": 46.3363, "duels_won": 3.5376, "total_long_balls": 7.5369, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7985, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5173, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.1642, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.3688, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.172, "crosses_total": 4.7095, "crosses_accurate": 1.2002, "touches": 67.8689, "possession_lost": 12.4211, "dispossessed": 0.5723, "duels_lost": 3.9891, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.843, "interceptions": 0.638, "tackles_won": 1.2206, "tackles": 1.8372, "clearances": 0.8296, "total_contest": 0.7827, "won_contest": 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0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1279 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0568 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.042 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0401 } ], "others": 0.1137, "total": 1.2203, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.139531 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.068298 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.052624 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.038589 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.036939 } ], "others_margin": 0.09773 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.6195971965789795, "model_output": 2.6196, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.5611 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4103 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2422 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1207 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0644 } ], "others": -0.2537, "total": 2.6196, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.177429 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132757 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.076225 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.040251 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.022153 } ], "others_margin": -0.092462 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6678081750869751, "model_output": 0.6678, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.4313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1202 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0908 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0718 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0479 } ], "others": -0.1926, "total": 0.6678, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.374101 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11909 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.088645 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.076131 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.054125 } ], "others_margin": -0.253396 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6254802346229553, "model_output": 0.6255, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0684 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0404 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0284 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0069, "total": 0.6255, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.068429 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.040425 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.028366 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.012619 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.011468 } ], "others_margin": -0.006959 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.593052864074707, "model_output": 6.5931, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0368 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0876, "total": 6.5931, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.036784 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.019831 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.019045 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.016853 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.011949 } ], "others_margin": -0.087616 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9973, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8544, "tackles": 2.0718, "tackles_won": 1.217, "clearances": 2.6125, "aerial_won": 0.666, "total_shots": 0.6239, "rating": 6.5931, "minutes": 85.07, "total_pass": 29.9548, "accurate_pass": 24.726, "duels_won": 4.7128, "total_long_balls": 3.4692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1707, "total_own_half_passes": 14.369, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9498, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7761, "crosses_total": 3.3603, "crosses_accurate": 0.7456, "touches": 54.5549, "possession_lost": 12.1848, "dispossessed": 0.5545, "duels_lost": 4.7785, "aerial_lost": 0.4134, "total_contest": 1.6473, "won_contest": 0.6058, "ball_recovery": 2.5402, "challenges_lost": 1.3639, "fouls": 1.4052, "fouls_drawn": 0.9935, "blocks": 0.0476, "goals": 0.1482, "goal_rate": 0.1482, "assists": 0.1744, "assist_rate": 0.1744, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.1542, "shots_on_target": 0.3113, "big_chances_created": 0.4661, "xgot": 0.0361, "ball_carries": 11.2732, "total_progression": 28.6288, "progressive_carries": 1.2704, "key_pass": 1.5093, "shots_off_target": 0.3126 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9973, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0041)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8509, "tackles": 2.0718, "tackles_won": 1.2175, "clearances": 2.6125, "aerial_won": 0.666, "total_shots": 0.6213, "rating": 6.5931, "minutes": 85.07, "total_pass": 29.9548, "accurate_pass": 24.726, "duels_won": 4.7128, "total_long_balls": 3.4692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1707, "total_own_half_passes": 14.369, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9498, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7761, "crosses_total": 3.3576, "crosses_accurate": 0.7456, "touches": 54.5549, "possession_lost": 12.1848, "dispossessed": 0.5545, "duels_lost": 4.7785, "aerial_lost": 0.4134, "total_contest": 1.6473, "won_contest": 0.6058, "ball_recovery": 2.5402, "challenges_lost": 1.3639, "fouls": 1.4105, "fouls_drawn": 0.995, "blocks": 0.0476, "goals": 0.1476, "goal_rate": 0.1476, "assists": 0.1737, "assist_rate": 0.1737, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.1542, "shots_on_target": 0.31, "big_chances_created": 0.4661, "xgot": 0.0361, "ball_carries": 11.2732, "total_progression": 28.6288, "progressive_carries": 1.2704, "key_pass": 1.5093, "shots_off_target": 0.3126 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0041, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9452, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Rayo Vallecano" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.4052, "after": 1.4105 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8509, "tackles": 2.0718, "tackles_won": 1.2175, "clearances": 2.6125, "aerial_won": 0.666, "total_shots": 0.6226, "rating": 6.5931, "minutes": 85.07, "total_pass": 29.9548, "accurate_pass": 24.726, "duels_won": 4.7128, "total_long_balls": 3.4692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1707, "total_own_half_passes": 14.369, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9498, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7761, "crosses_total": 3.3576, "crosses_accurate": 0.7456, "touches": 54.5549, "possession_lost": 12.1848, "dispossessed": 0.5545, "duels_lost": 4.7785, "aerial_lost": 0.4134, "total_contest": 1.6473, "won_contest": 0.6058, "ball_recovery": 2.5402, "challenges_lost": 1.3639, "fouls": 1.4105, "fouls_drawn": 0.995, "blocks": 0.0476, "goals": 0.1476, "goal_rate": 0.1476, "assists": 0.1737, "assist_rate": 0.1737, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.1542, "shots_on_target": 0.31, "big_chances_created": 0.4661, "xgot": 0.0361, "ball_carries": 11.2732, "total_progression": 28.6288, "progressive_carries": 1.2704, "key_pass": 1.5093, "shots_off_target": 0.3126 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8509, "tackles": 2.0718, "tackles_won": 1.2175, "clearances": 2.6125, "aerial_won": 0.666, "total_shots": 0.6226, "rating": 6.5931, "minutes": 85.07, "total_pass": 29.9548, "accurate_pass": 24.726, "duels_won": 4.7128, "total_long_balls": 3.4692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1707, "total_own_half_passes": 14.369, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9498, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7761, "crosses_total": 3.3576, "crosses_accurate": 0.7456, "touches": 54.5549, "possession_lost": 12.1848, "dispossessed": 0.5545, "duels_lost": 4.7785, "aerial_lost": 0.4134, "total_contest": 1.6473, "won_contest": 0.6058, "ball_recovery": 2.5402, "challenges_lost": 1.3639, "fouls": 1.4105, "fouls_drawn": 0.995, "blocks": 0.0476, "goals": 0.1476, "goal_rate": 0.1476, "assists": 0.1737, "assist_rate": 0.1737, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.1542, "shots_on_target": 0.31, "big_chances_created": 0.4661, "xgot": 0.0361, "ball_carries": 11.2732, "total_progression": 28.6288, "progressive_carries": 1.2704, "key_pass": 1.5093, "shots_off_target": 0.3126, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.497, "opponent_faced": "Robert Navarro", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Robert Navarro", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.2164, xG scale 1.1008, xA scale 1.1008, team xA 0.95 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8509, "tackles": 2.0718, "tackles_won": 1.2175, "clearances": 2.6125, "aerial_won": 0.666, "total_shots": 0.6226, "rating": 6.5931, "minutes": 85.07, "total_pass": 29.9548, "accurate_pass": 24.726, "duels_won": 4.7128, "total_long_balls": 3.4692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1707, "total_own_half_passes": 14.369, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9498, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7761, "crosses_total": 3.3576, "crosses_accurate": 0.7456, "touches": 54.5549, "possession_lost": 12.1848, "dispossessed": 0.5545, "duels_lost": 4.7785, "aerial_lost": 0.4134, "total_contest": 1.6473, "won_contest": 0.6058, "ball_recovery": 2.5402, "challenges_lost": 1.3639, "fouls": 1.4105, "fouls_drawn": 0.995, "blocks": 0.0476, "goal_rate": 0.1476, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1737, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0294, "expected_assists": 0.1697, "shots_on_target": 0.31, "big_chances_created": 0.4661, "xgot": 0.0397, "ball_carries": 11.2732, "total_progression": 28.6288, "progressive_carries": 1.2704, "key_pass": 1.5093, "shots_off_target": 0.3126, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.497, "opponent_faced": "Robert Navarro", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0955 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.339, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2164, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8619, "team_expected_assists": 0.9488, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7086, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1008, "xa_scale": 1.1008, "opponent_lambda": 1.0, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1542, "after": 0.1697 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8509, "tackles": 2.0718, "tackles_won": 1.2175, "clearances": 2.6125, "aerial_won": 0.666, "total_shots": 0.6226, "rating": 6.5931, "minutes": 85.07, "total_pass": 29.9548, "accurate_pass": 24.726, "duels_won": 4.7128, "total_long_balls": 3.4692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1707, "total_own_half_passes": 14.369, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9498, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7761, "crosses_total": 3.3576, "crosses_accurate": 0.7456, "touches": 54.5549, "possession_lost": 12.1848, "dispossessed": 0.5545, "duels_lost": 4.7785, "aerial_lost": 0.4134, "total_contest": 1.6473, "won_contest": 0.6058, "ball_recovery": 2.5402, "challenges_lost": 1.3639, "fouls": 1.4105, "fouls_drawn": 0.995, "blocks": 0.0476, "goal_rate": 0.1476, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1737, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0294, "expected_assists": 0.1697, "shots_on_target": 0.31, "big_chances_created": 0.4661, "xgot": 0.0397, "ball_carries": 11.2732, "total_progression": 28.6288, "progressive_carries": 1.2704, "key_pass": 1.5093, "shots_off_target": 0.3126, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.497, "opponent_faced": "Robert Navarro", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0955, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3912, "fifa_rank": 2892.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8509, "tackles": 2.0718, "tackles_won": 1.2175, "clearances": 2.6125, "aerial_won": 0.666, "total_shots": 0.6226, "rating": 6.5931, "minutes": 85.07, "total_pass": 29.9548, "accurate_pass": 24.726, "duels_won": 4.7128, "total_long_balls": 3.4692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1707, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9913, quality 0.458)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9676, "tackles": 1.1134, "tackles_won": 0.6247, "clearances": 5.3785, "aerial_won": 1.5631, "total_shots": 0.3277, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 83.34, "total_pass": 39.2955, "accurate_pass": 36.3862, "duels_won": 1.3188, "total_long_balls": 2.8516, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7128, "total_own_half_passes": 30.9952, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.6099, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3004, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7763, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.0303, "possession_lost": 2.9094, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9827, "aerial_lost": 0.6551, "total_contest": 0.3275, "won_contest": 0.3275, "ball_recovery": 2.3679, "challenges_lost": 0.3275, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.6551, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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8.3004, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7763, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.0303, "possession_lost": 2.9094, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9827, "aerial_lost": 0.6551, "total_contest": 0.3275, "won_contest": 0.3275, "ball_recovery": 2.3679, "challenges_lost": 0.3275, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.6551, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.094, "total_progression": 26.0714, "progressive_carries": 0.2785, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3277 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9676, "tackles": 1.1134, "tackles_won": 0.6247, "clearances": 5.3785, "aerial_won": 1.5631, 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9676, "tackles": 1.1134, "tackles_won": 0.6247, "clearances": 5.3785, "aerial_won": 1.5631, "total_shots": 0.3277, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 83.34, "total_pass": 39.2955, "accurate_pass": 36.3862, "duels_won": 1.3188, "total_long_balls": 2.8516, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7128, "total_own_half_passes": 30.9952, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.6099, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3004, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7763, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.0303, "possession_lost": 2.9094, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9827, "aerial_lost": 0.6551, "total_contest": 0.3275, "won_contest": 0.3275, "ball_recovery": 2.3679, "challenges_lost": 0.3275, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.6551, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, 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"integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9676, "tackles": 1.1134, "tackles_won": 0.6247, "clearances": 5.3785, "aerial_won": 1.5631, "total_shots": 0.3277, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 83.34, "total_pass": 39.2955, "accurate_pass": 36.3862, "duels_won": 1.3188, "total_long_balls": 2.8516, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7128, "total_own_half_passes": 30.9952, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.6099, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3004, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7763, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.0303, "possession_lost": 2.9094, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9827, "aerial_lost": 0.6551, "total_contest": 0.3275, "won_contest": 0.3275, "ball_recovery": 2.3679, "challenges_lost": 0.3275, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.6551, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, 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"totalShots", "margin": -0.098318 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.061573 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.052505 } ], "others_margin": -0.06986 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1719555854797363, "model_output": 1.172, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4268 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0761 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.022 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0217 } ], "others": 0.0484, "total": 1.172, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.426784 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.105917 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.07608 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.022018 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.021717 } ], "others_margin": 0.048309 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.825176239013672, "model_output": 6.8252, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0271 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0235 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0169 } ], "others": 0.0603, "total": 6.8252, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027073 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.023504 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.023272 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.022975 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016865 } ], "others_margin": 0.060182 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 43, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1739, "tackles": 1.5044, "tackles_won": 0.8754, "clearances": 6.0021, "aerial_won": 1.4217, "total_shots": 1.1696, "rating": 6.8252, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 54.8292, "accurate_pass": 47.1087, "duels_won": 4.2096, "total_long_balls": 8.2786, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7704, "total_own_half_passes": 35.2923, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.1486, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9599, "crosses_total": 0.0801, "crosses_accurate": 0.0544, "touches": 71.3149, "possession_lost": 8.4384, "dispossessed": 0.0386, "duels_lost": 2.7719, "aerial_lost": 1.1465, "total_contest": 0.4155, "won_contest": 0.242, "ball_recovery": 4.2634, "challenges_lost": 0.5278, "fouls": 1.0453, "fouls_drawn": 0.669, "blocks": 0.8245, "goals": 0.0662, 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0556 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0428 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0261 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0226 } ], "others": -0.0549, "total": 0.7303, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.266801 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.06522 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.053251 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.03288 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.028405 } ], "others_margin": -0.07248 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.755313396453857, "model_output": 6.7553, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", 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appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1585, "combined_rank_score": 646.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 956.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8967, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Augusto Batalla", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Daniel Ballard", "ranking": 1580 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Herrera", "ranking": 1581 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Romero", "ranking": 1582 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Digne", "ranking": 1583 }, { "player_name": "Nico Elvedi", "ranking": 1584 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Pavel Šulc", "ranking": 1586 }, { "player_name": "Richard Friday", "ranking": 1587 }, { "player_name": "Bertrand Traoré", "ranking": 1588 }, { "player_name": "Abdurauf Buriev", "ranking": 1589 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Avellaneda", "ranking": 1590 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 36, "data_confidence": 0.767, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.529104686408814, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.134, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9988, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (36 historical appearances) to 4.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.13); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.7167, "goals_prevented": -0.08, "rating": 6.8967, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 36.225, "accurate_pass": 22.4028, "total_long_balls": 22.1586, "accurate_long_balls": 8.5535, "touches": 45.1944, "clearances": 0.8446, "ball_recovery": 8.7417, "high_claims": 1.3528, "punches": 0.4974, "aerial_won": 0.2423, "sweeper_actions": 0.686, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4622, "saves_inside_box": 1.5952, "possession_lost": 14.1036, "duels_won": 0.6081, "duels_lost": 0.3033, "total_contest": 0.2153, "won_contest": 0.1671, "fouls": 0.0667, "fouls_drawn": 0.0477, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3575, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8629 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-09T10:02:40.828652+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 199, "rows": 6796 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-14", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-03", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-16", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-08", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.4621, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8803, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.2102, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.1223, "save_contribution": 2.3862, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.4621 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.7167418003082275, "model_output": 2.7167, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0362 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9286, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1668 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0358 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0269 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0185 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.017 } ], "others": -0.0179, "total": 2.7167, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.074537, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.05864 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013059 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009928 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.006847 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.006223 } ], "others_margin": -0.006548 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.07996651530265808, "model_output": -0.08, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0385 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0166, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0469 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.0179 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0166 } ], "others": -0.0216, "total": -0.08, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.046936 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.024207 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.020442 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.017876 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.016566 } ], "others_margin": -0.021494 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.896728515625, "model_output": 6.8967, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0188 } ], "others": -0.0806, "total": 6.8967, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.009122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.02836 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.021149 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.020457 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.019413 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.018818 } ], "others_margin": -0.080658 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9988, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7135, "goals_prevented": -0.0799, "rating": 6.8967, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 36.1815, "accurate_pass": 22.3759, "total_long_balls": 22.132, "accurate_long_balls": 8.5432, "touches": 45.1402, "clearances": 0.8436, "ball_recovery": 8.7312, "high_claims": 1.3512, "punches": 0.4968, "aerial_won": 0.242, "sweeper_actions": 0.6852, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4616, "saves_inside_box": 1.5933, "possession_lost": 14.0867, "duels_won": 0.6074, "duels_lost": 0.3029, "total_contest": 0.215, "won_contest": 0.1669, "fouls": 0.0666, "fouls_drawn": 0.0476, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3331, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8415 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5800000, "quality_factor": 0.472, "boost_factor": 0.9988, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0090)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6941, "goals_prevented": -0.0799, "rating": 6.8967, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 36.1815, "accurate_pass": 22.3759, "total_long_balls": 22.132, "accurate_long_balls": 8.5432, "touches": 45.1402, "clearances": 0.8436, "ball_recovery": 8.7312, "high_claims": 1.3512, "punches": 0.4968, "aerial_won": 0.242, "sweeper_actions": 0.6852, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4616, "saves_inside_box": 1.5933, "possession_lost": 14.0867, "duels_won": 0.6074, "duels_lost": 0.3029, "total_contest": 0.215, "won_contest": 0.1669, "fouls": 0.066, "fouls_drawn": 0.0472, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3331, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8415 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.009, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3167, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Rayo Vallecano" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.7135, "after": 2.6941 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.13)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4281, "goals_prevented": -0.0127, "rating": 6.8967, "minutes": 4.53, "total_pass": 5.7498, "accurate_pass": 3.5559, "total_long_balls": 3.5171, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3577, "touches": 7.1735, "clearances": 0.1341, "ball_recovery": 1.3875, "high_claims": 0.2147, "punches": 0.0789, "aerial_won": 0.0385, "sweeper_actions": 0.1089, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0734, "saves_inside_box": 0.2532, "possession_lost": 2.2386, "duels_won": 0.0965, "duels_lost": 0.0481, "total_contest": 0.0342, "won_contest": 0.0265, "fouls": 0.0105, "fouls_drawn": 0.0075, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2313, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8353, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.134, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.53 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.53, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1589, "appearance_probability": 0.134 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4281, "goals_prevented": -0.0127, "rating": 6.8967, "minutes": 4.53, "total_pass": 5.7498, "accurate_pass": 3.5559, "total_long_balls": 3.5171, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3577, "touches": 7.1735, "clearances": 0.1341, "ball_recovery": 1.3875, "high_claims": 0.2147, "punches": 0.0789, "aerial_won": 0.0385, "sweeper_actions": 0.1089, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0734, "saves_inside_box": 0.2532, "possession_lost": 2.2386, "duels_won": 0.0965, "duels_lost": 0.0481, "total_contest": 0.0342, "won_contest": 0.0265, "fouls": 0.0105, "fouls_drawn": 0.0075, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2313, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8353, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.134, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.53 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4281, "goals_prevented": -0.0127, "rating": 6.8967, "minutes": 4.53, "total_pass": 5.7498, "accurate_pass": 3.5559, "total_long_balls": 3.5171, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3577, "touches": 7.1735, "clearances": 0.1341, "ball_recovery": 1.3875, "high_claims": 0.2147, "punches": 0.0789, "aerial_won": 0.0385, "sweeper_actions": 0.1089, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0734, "saves_inside_box": 0.2532, "possession_lost": 2.2386, "duels_won": 0.0965, "duels_lost": 0.0481, "total_contest": 0.0342, "won_contest": 0.0265, "fouls": 0.0105, "fouls_drawn": 0.0075, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2313, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8353, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.134, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.53, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.134, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4281, "goals_prevented": -0.0127, "rating": 6.8967, "minutes": 4.53, "total_pass": 5.7498, "accurate_pass": 3.5559, "total_long_balls": 3.5171, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3577, "touches": 7.1735, "clearances": 0.1341, "ball_recovery": 1.3875, "high_claims": 0.2147, "punches": 0.0789, "aerial_won": 0.0385, "sweeper_actions": 0.1089, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0734, "saves_inside_box": 0.2532, "possession_lost": 2.2386, "duels_won": 0.0965, "duels_lost": 0.0481, "total_contest": 0.0342, "won_contest": 0.0265, "fouls": 0.0105, "fouls_drawn": 0.0075, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2313, 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3200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6351, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 1.8617, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58, 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"margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.932204 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.185527 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.119306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.054616 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.050189 } ], "others_margin": 0.013844 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6115065217018127, "model_output": 0.6115, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7153 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0522 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0342 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0345 }, { "name": 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-0.0407 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.018 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0176 } ], "others": 0.0539, "total": 0.3212, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.227661 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.064185 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.040745 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.017966 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017612 } ], "others_margin": 0.053941 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6840033531188965, "model_output": 6.684, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.028 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { 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2.1407, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1593, "shots_off_target": 0.1822, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.172, "tackles": 0.2135, "tackles_won": 0.164, "clearances": 0.6587, "aerial_won": 0.3469, "total_shots": 0.1822, "rating": 6.684, "minutes": 13.57, "total_pass": 7.5737, "accurate_pass": 5.7739, "duels_won": 0.3186, "total_long_balls": 1.9222, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9752, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8257, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.479, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2949, "crosses_total": 0.1593, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8747, "possession_lost": 2.3059, "dispossessed": 0.3278, "duels_lost": 0.7828, "aerial_lost": 0.6556, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 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display (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.172, "tackles": 0.2135, "tackles_won": 0.164, "clearances": 0.6587, "aerial_won": 0.3469, "total_shots": 0.1822, "rating": 6.684, "minutes": 13.57, "total_pass": 7.5737, "accurate_pass": 5.7739, "duels_won": 0.3186, "total_long_balls": 1.9222, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9752, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8257, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.479, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2949, "crosses_total": 0.1593, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8747, "possession_lost": 2.3059, "dispossessed": 0.3278, "duels_lost": 0.7828, "aerial_lost": 0.6556, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6654, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2205, "fouls_drawn": 0.1593, "blocks": 0.1593, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0023, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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"position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 180, "market_value": 2900000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.0613, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0625, "goal_rate": 0.0512, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6984, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.4066, "dispossessed": 0.2903, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0168, "ball_carries": 4, 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"accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416345, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2708, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416331, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.082898 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.035031 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015394 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011341 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.008632 } ], "others_margin": -0.014419 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6319, "expected_assists": 0.0437, "assists": 0.0603, "assist_rate": 0.0603, "expected_goals": 0.0558, "goals": 0.0504, "goal_rate": 0.0504, "shots_on_target": 0.1923, "total_shots": 0.884, "rating": 6.6984, "minutes": 22.69, "total_pass": 8.8481, "accurate_pass": 6.9383, "duels_won": 1.685, "total_long_balls": 0.6594, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2772, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5704, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7006, "crosses_total": 0.8374, "crosses_accurate": 0.4554, "touches": 14.6964, "possession_lost": 3.3476, "dispossessed": 0.2903, "duels_lost": 1.3672, "aerial_won": 0.1257, "aerial_lost": 0.0858, "interceptions": 0.2161, "tackles_won": 0.23, "tackles": 0.4651, "clearances": 0.2846, "total_contest": 0.6809, "won_contest": 0.6117, "challenges_lost": 0.4121, "fouls": 0.5097, "fouls_drawn": 0.4825, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1162, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.015, "ball_carries": 4.0509, "total_progression": 10.5078, "progressive_carries": 0.1905, "shots_off_target": 0.6917 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9977, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0024)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6319, "expected_assists": 0.0437, "assists": 0.0602, "assist_rate": 0.0602, "expected_goals": 0.0558, "goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "shots_on_target": 0.1918, "total_shots": 0.8819, "rating": 6.6984, "minutes": 22.69, "total_pass": 8.8481, "accurate_pass": 6.9383, "duels_won": 1.685, "total_long_balls": 0.6594, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2772, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5704, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7006, "crosses_total": 0.8402, "crosses_accurate": 0.4554, "touches": 14.6964, "possession_lost": 3.3476, "dispossessed": 0.2903, "duels_lost": 1.3672, "aerial_won": 0.1257, "aerial_lost": 0.0858, "interceptions": 0.2168, "tackles_won": 0.2294, "tackles": 0.4651, "clearances": 0.2846, "total_contest": 0.6809, "won_contest": 0.6117, "challenges_lost": 0.4121, "fouls": 0.5097, "fouls_drawn": 0.4813, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1162, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.015, "ball_carries": 4.0509, "total_progression": 10.5078, "progressive_carries": 0.1905, "shots_off_target": 0.6917 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0024, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2521, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Rayo Vallecano" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.7 to 23.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.643, "expected_assists": 0.0445, "assists": 0.0613, "assist_rate": 0.0613, "expected_goals": 0.0568, "goals": 0.0512, "goal_rate": 0.0512, "shots_on_target": 0.1952, "total_shots": 0.8991, "rating": 6.6984, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 9.0041, "accurate_pass": 7.0606, "duels_won": 1.7147, "total_long_balls": 0.671, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2821, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6157, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2771, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3884, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7835, "crosses_total": 0.855, "crosses_accurate": 0.4634, "touches": 14.9555, "possession_lost": 3.4066, "dispossessed": 0.2903, "duels_lost": 1.3913, "aerial_won": 0.1279, "aerial_lost": 0.0858, "interceptions": 0.2206, "tackles_won": 0.2334, "tackles": 0.4733, "clearances": 0.2896, "total_contest": 0.6929, "won_contest": 0.6225, "challenges_lost": 0.4121, "fouls": 0.5187, "fouls_drawn": 0.4898, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1182, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0153, "ball_carries": 4.1223, "total_progression": 10.693, "progressive_carries": 0.1939, "shots_off_target": 0.7039, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.09, "projection_minutes": 22.69, "minutes_scale": 1.0176, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.643, "expected_assists": 0.0445, "assists": 0.0613, "assist_rate": 0.0613, "expected_goals": 0.0568, "goals": 0.0512, "goal_rate": 0.0512, "shots_on_target": 0.1952, "total_shots": 0.8991, "rating": 6.6984, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 9.0041, "accurate_pass": 7.0606, "duels_won": 1.7147, "total_long_balls": 0.671, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2821, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6157, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2771, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3884, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7835, "crosses_total": 0.855, "crosses_accurate": 0.4634, "touches": 14.9555, "possession_lost": 3.4066, "dispossessed": 0.2903, "duels_lost": 1.3913, "aerial_won": 0.1279, "aerial_lost": 0.0858, "interceptions": 0.2206, "tackles_won": 0.2334, "tackles": 0.4733, "clearances": 0.2896, "total_contest": 0.6929, "won_contest": 0.6225, "challenges_lost": 0.4121, "fouls": 0.5187, "fouls_drawn": 0.4898, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1182, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0153, "ball_carries": 4.1223, "total_progression": 10.693, "progressive_carries": 0.1939, "shots_off_target": 0.7039, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.2164, xG scale 1.1008, xA scale 1.1008, team xA 0.95 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.643, "expected_assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.0613, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0625, "goal_rate": 0.0512, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1952, "total_shots": 0.8991, "rating": 6.6984, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 9.0041, "accurate_pass": 7.0606, "duels_won": 1.7147, "total_long_balls": 0.671, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2821, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6157, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2771, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3884, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7835, "crosses_total": 0.855, "crosses_accurate": 0.4634, "touches": 14.9555, "possession_lost": 3.4066, "dispossessed": 0.2903, "duels_lost": 1.3913, "aerial_won": 0.1279, "aerial_lost": 0.0858, "interceptions": 0.2206, "tackles_won": 0.2334, "tackles": 0.4733, "clearances": 0.2896, "total_contest": 0.6929, "won_contest": 0.6225, "challenges_lost": 0.4121, "fouls": 0.5187, "fouls_drawn": 0.4898, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1182, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0168, "ball_carries": 4.1223, "total_progression": 10.693, "progressive_carries": 0.1939, "shots_off_target": 0.7039, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9476, "creation_factor": 1.1778 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.339, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2164, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8619, "team_expected_assists": 0.9488, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7086, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1008, "xa_scale": 1.1008, "opponent_lambda": 1.0, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0568, "after": 0.0625 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.643, "expected_assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.0613, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0625, "goal_rate": 0.0512, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1952, "total_shots": 0.8991, "rating": 6.6984, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 9.0041, "accurate_pass": 7.0606, "duels_won": 1.7147, "total_long_balls": 0.671, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2821, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6157, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2771, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3884, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7835, "crosses_total": 0.855, "crosses_accurate": 0.4634, "touches": 14.9555, "possession_lost": 3.4066, "dispossessed": 0.2903, "duels_lost": 1.3913, "aerial_won": 0.1279, "aerial_lost": 0.0858, "interceptions": 0.2206, "tackles_won": 0.2334, "tackles": 0.4733, "clearances": 0.2896, "total_contest": 0.6929, "won_contest": 0.6225, "challenges_lost": 0.4121, "fouls": 0.5187, "fouls_drawn": 0.4898, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1182, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0168, "ball_carries": 4.1223, "total_progression": 10.693, "progressive_carries": 0.1939, "shots_off_target": 0.7039, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9476, "creation_factor": 1.1778, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3649, "fifa_rank": 2400.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.643, "expected_assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.0613, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0625, "goal_rate": 0.0512, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1952, "total_shots": 0.8991, "rating": 6.6984, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 9.0041, "accurate_pass": 7.0606, "duels_won": 1.7147, "total_long_balls": 0.671, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2821, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6157, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2771, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3884, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7835, "crosses_total": 0.855, "crosses_accurate": 0.4634, "touches": 14.9555, "possession_lost": 3.4066, "dispossessed": 0.2903, "duels_lost": 1.3913, "aerial_won": 0.1279, "aerial_lost": 0.0858, "interceptions": 0.2206, "tackles_won": 0.2334, "tackles": 0.4733, "clearances": 0.2896, "total_contest": 0.6929, "won_contest": 0.6225, "challenges_lost": 0.4121, "fouls": 0.5187, "fouls_drawn": 0.4898, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1182, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0168, "ball_carries": 4.1223, "total_progression": 10.693, "progressive_carries": 0.1939, "shots_off_target": 0.7039, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0419, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9476, "creation_factor": 1.1778, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0419, "scorer_weight": 0.041, "squad_weight_total": 1.4853, "weight_share": 0.0276, "finishing_factor": 0.9476, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.435, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.435, "runner_up": "Álvaro García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2355 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.643, "expected_assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.0613, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0625, "goal_rate": 0.0512, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1952, "total_shots": 0.8991, "rating": 6.6984, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 9.0041, "accurate_pass": 7.0606, "duels_won": 1.7147, "total_long_balls": 0.671, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2821, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6157, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2771, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3884, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7835, "crosses_total": 0.855, "crosses_accurate": 0.4634, "touches": 14.9555, "possession_lost": 3.4066, "dispossessed": 0.2903, "duels_lost": 1.3913, "aerial_won": 0.1279, "aerial_lost": 0.0858, "interceptions": 0.2206, "tackles_won": 0.2334, "tackles": 0.4733, "clearances": 0.2896, "total_contest": 0.6929, "won_contest": 0.6225, "challenges_lost": 0.4121, "fouls": 0.5187, "fouls_drawn": 0.4898, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1182, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0168, "ball_carries": 4.1223, "total_progression": 10.693, "progressive_carries": 0.1939, "shots_off_target": 0.7039, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0419, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0331, "finishing_factor": 0.9476, "creation_factor": 1.1778, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0331, "provider_weight": 0.0399, "squad_weight_total": 0.9695, "weight_share": 0.0412, "creation_factor": 1.1778, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "weight": 0.1859, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1859, "runner_up": "Álvaro García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1496, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Sergio Camello" ] } ] } } ] }, "Óscar Valentín": { "player_id": 900008, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 177, "market_value": 1900000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assist_rate": 0.041, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "goal_rate": 0.0287, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7256, "minutes": 30, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 1.6165, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0343, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 11, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.435, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.69, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416305, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416345, "match_date": "2026-09-15", 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"role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2583, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "assists": 0.0316, "assist_rate": 0.0316, "expected_goals": 0.0129, "goals": 0.0221, "goal_rate": 0.0221, "shots_on_target": 0.057, "total_shots": 0.2677, "rating": 6.7256, "minutes": 22.69, "total_pass": 11.0377, "accurate_pass": 10.106, "duels_won": 2.4808, "total_long_balls": 1.1341, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6284, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7779, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9771, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3281, "crosses_total": 0.1346, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3797, "possession_lost": 1.2354, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0033, "aerial_won": 0.8341, "aerial_lost": 0.3824, "interceptions": 0.5612, "tackles_won": 0.3201, "tackles": 1.0277, "clearances": 0.749, 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"big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0343, "ball_carries": 5.3935, "total_progression": 11.2627, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2757, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.435, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.69 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 29.69, "projection_minutes": 22.69, "minutes_scale": 1.3085, "appearance_probability": 0.435 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.338, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assists": 0.041, "assist_rate": 0.041, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "goals": 0.0287, "goal_rate": 0.0287, "shots_on_target": 0.0738, "total_shots": 0.3495, "rating": 6.7256, "minutes": 29.69, "total_pass": 14.4429, "accurate_pass": 13.2238, "duels_won": 3.2461, "total_long_balls": 1.484, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8223, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3132, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9434, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1296, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2804, "crosses_total": 0.1773, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.1244, "possession_lost": 1.6165, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3128, "aerial_won": 1.0914, "aerial_lost": 0.3824, "interceptions": 0.7325, "tackles_won": 0.4221, "tackles": 1.3448, "clearances": 0.9801, "total_contest": 0.2355, "won_contest": 0.1273, "challenges_lost": 0.4047, "fouls": 0.1807, "fouls_drawn": 0.6783, "blocks": 0.2439, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0343, "ball_carries": 5.3935, "total_progression": 11.2627, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2757, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.435, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.69 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.338, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assist_rate": 0.041, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "goal_rate": 0.0287, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0738, "total_shots": 0.3495, "rating": 6.7256, "minutes": 29.69, "total_pass": 14.4429, "accurate_pass": 13.2238, "duels_won": 3.2461, "total_long_balls": 1.484, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8223, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3132, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9434, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1296, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2804, "crosses_total": 0.1773, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.1244, "possession_lost": 1.6165, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3128, "aerial_won": 1.0914, "aerial_lost": 0.3824, "interceptions": 0.7325, "tackles_won": 0.4221, "tackles": 1.3448, "clearances": 0.9801, "total_contest": 0.2355, "won_contest": 0.1273, "challenges_lost": 0.4047, "fouls": 0.1807, "fouls_drawn": 0.6783, "blocks": 0.2439, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0343, "ball_carries": 5.3935, "total_progression": 11.2627, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2757, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.435, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.69, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.435, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.338, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assist_rate": 0.041, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "goal_rate": 0.0287, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0738, "total_shots": 0.3495, "rating": 6.7256, "minutes": 29.69, "total_pass": 14.4429, "accurate_pass": 13.2238, "duels_won": 3.2461, "total_long_balls": 1.484, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8223, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3132, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9434, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1296, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2804, "crosses_total": 0.1773, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.1244, "possession_lost": 1.6165, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3128, "aerial_won": 1.0914, "aerial_lost": 0.3824, "interceptions": 0.7325, "tackles_won": 0.4221, "tackles": 1.3448, "clearances": 0.9801, "total_contest": 0.2355, "won_contest": 0.1273, "challenges_lost": 0.4047, "fouls": 0.1807, "fouls_drawn": 0.6783, "blocks": 0.2439, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0343, "ball_carries": 5.3935, "total_progression": 11.2627, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2757, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.435, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.69, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": 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"match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0768, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083682, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2114, 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1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.566281 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.083541 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.069477 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.02793 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.026129 } ], "others_margin": -0.020396 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.023840729147195816, "model_output": 0.0238, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0059 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0022 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0091, "total": 0.0238, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.404224 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.146822 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.106905 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.069787 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.058077 } ], "others_margin": -0.322243 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.28388839960098267, "model_output": 0.2839, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2882 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0215, "total": 0.2839, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.557932 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.076125 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.070298 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.04638 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.040832 } ], "others_margin": -0.073048 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.622373104095459, "model_output": 6.6224, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0616 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0439, "total": 6.6224, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061637 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020727 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012747 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.012323 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.011377 } ], "others_margin": -0.043728 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9887, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0621, "goals": 0.0736, "goal_rate": 0.0736, "shots_on_target": 0.2691, "total_shots": 0.7157, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "key_pass": 0.2807, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 18.81, "total_pass": 7.0691, "accurate_pass": 5.6504, "duels_won": 0.2241, "total_long_balls": 0.3103, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6747, "crosses_total": 1.4241, "crosses_accurate": 0.4879, "touches": 15.8786, "possession_lost": 6.3769, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 3.3436, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 0.7586, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7982, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.2637, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2241, "tackles": 0.2241, "clearances": 0.574, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2637, "big_chances_missed": 0.3267, "xgot": 0.0819, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9211, "total_progression": 35.9481, "progressive_carries": 2.4394, "shots_off_target": 0.4466 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9887, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.8 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0835, "goals": 0.099, "goal_rate": 0.099, "shots_on_target": 0.3618, "total_shots": 0.9623, "expected_assists": 0.0317, "key_pass": 0.3774, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, 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"goals": 0.099, "goal_rate": 0.099, "shots_on_target": 0.3618, "total_shots": 0.9623, "expected_assists": 0.0317, "key_pass": 0.3774, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, "possession_lost": 8.5745, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 4.4959, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 1.02, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0733, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.3546, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3013, "tackles": 0.3013, "clearances": 0.7718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4393, "xgot": 0.1101, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9616, "total_progression": 48.3364, "progressive_carries": 3.2801, "shots_off_target": 0.6005, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.2164, xG scale 1.1008, xA scale 1.1008, team xA 0.95 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0919, "goal_rate": 0.099, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3618, "total_shots": 0.9623, "expected_assists": 0.0349, "key_pass": 0.3774, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, "possession_lost": 8.5745, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 4.4959, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 1.02, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0733, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.3546, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3013, "tackles": 0.3013, "clearances": 0.7718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4393, "xgot": 0.1212, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9616, "total_progression": 48.3364, "progressive_carries": 3.2801, "shots_off_target": 0.6005, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1161, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.339, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2164, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8619, "team_expected_assists": 0.9488, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7086, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1008, "xa_scale": 1.1008, "opponent_lambda": 1.0, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.559 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0835, "after": 0.0919 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0919, "goal_rate": 0.099, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3618, "total_shots": 0.9623, "expected_assists": 0.0349, "key_pass": 0.3774, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, "possession_lost": 8.5745, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 4.4959, 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"params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1617, "fifa_rank": 1117.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0919, "goal_rate": 0.099, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3618, "total_shots": 0.9623, "expected_assists": 0.0349, "key_pass": 0.3774, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, 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{ "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0428 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0036 } ], "others": -0.0105, "total": 0.0506, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.576187 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.210133 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.094359 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.067301 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.060752 } ], "others_margin": -0.191405 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.19278235733509064, "model_output": 0.1928, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1581 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0399 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0063 } ], "others": -0.0138, "total": 0.1928, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.669174 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.215341 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.074679 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.040731 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 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"margin": 0.050468 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.042155 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.023646 } ], "others_margin": 0.024105 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.698419094085693, "model_output": 6.6984, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0829 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.035 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0086 } ], "others": -0.0145, "total": 6.6984, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.082898 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.035031 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015394 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011341 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.008632 } ], "others_margin": -0.014419 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6319, "expected_assists": 0.0437, "assists": 0.0603, "assist_rate": 0.0603, "expected_goals": 0.0558, "goals": 0.0504, "goal_rate": 0.0504, "shots_on_target": 0.1923, "total_shots": 0.884, "rating": 6.6984, "minutes": 22.69, "total_pass": 8.8481, "accurate_pass": 6.9383, "duels_won": 1.685, "total_long_balls": 0.6594, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2772, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5704, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7006, "crosses_total": 0.8374, "crosses_accurate": 0.4554, "touches": 14.6964, "possession_lost": 3.3476, "dispossessed": 0.2903, "duels_lost": 1.3672, "aerial_won": 0.1257, "aerial_lost": 0.0858, "interceptions": 0.2161, "tackles_won": 0.23, "tackles": 0.4651, "clearances": 0.2846, 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"total_own_half_passes": 2.5704, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7006, "crosses_total": 0.8402, "crosses_accurate": 0.4554, "touches": 14.6964, "possession_lost": 3.3476, "dispossessed": 0.2903, "duels_lost": 1.3672, "aerial_won": 0.1257, "aerial_lost": 0.0858, "interceptions": 0.2168, "tackles_won": 0.2294, "tackles": 0.4651, "clearances": 0.2846, "total_contest": 0.6809, "won_contest": 0.6117, "challenges_lost": 0.4121, "fouls": 0.5097, "fouls_drawn": 0.4813, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1162, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.015, "ball_carries": 4.0509, "total_progression": 10.5078, "progressive_carries": 0.1905, "shots_off_target": 0.6917 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0024, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2521, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Rayo Vallecano" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench 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"big_chances_created": 0.1182, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0153, "ball_carries": 4.1223, "total_progression": 10.693, "progressive_carries": 0.1939, "shots_off_target": 0.7039, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.09, "projection_minutes": 22.69, "minutes_scale": 1.0176, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.643, "expected_assists": 0.0445, "assists": 0.0613, "assist_rate": 0.0613, "expected_goals": 0.0568, "goals": 0.0512, "goal_rate": 0.0512, "shots_on_target": 0.1952, "total_shots": 0.8991, "rating": 6.6984, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 9.0041, "accurate_pass": 7.0606, "duels_won": 1.7147, "total_long_balls": 0.671, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2821, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6157, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2771, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3884, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7835, "crosses_total": 0.855, "crosses_accurate": 0.4634, "touches": 14.9555, "possession_lost": 3.4066, "dispossessed": 0.2903, "duels_lost": 1.3913, "aerial_won": 0.1279, "aerial_lost": 0.0858, "interceptions": 0.2206, "tackles_won": 0.2334, "tackles": 0.4733, "clearances": 0.2896, "total_contest": 0.6929, "won_contest": 0.6225, "challenges_lost": 0.4121, "fouls": 0.5187, "fouls_drawn": 0.4898, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1182, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0153, "ball_carries": 4.1223, "total_progression": 10.693, "progressive_carries": 0.1939, "shots_off_target": 0.7039, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.2164, xG scale 1.1008, xA scale 1.1008, team xA 0.95 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.643, "expected_assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.0613, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0625, "goal_rate": 0.0512, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1952, "total_shots": 0.8991, "rating": 6.6984, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 9.0041, "accurate_pass": 7.0606, "duels_won": 1.7147, "total_long_balls": 0.671, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2821, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6157, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2771, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3884, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7835, "crosses_total": 0.855, "crosses_accurate": 0.4634, "touches": 14.9555, "possession_lost": 3.4066, "dispossessed": 0.2903, "duels_lost": 1.3913, "aerial_won": 0.1279, "aerial_lost": 0.0858, "interceptions": 0.2206, "tackles_won": 0.2334, "tackles": 0.4733, "clearances": 0.2896, "total_contest": 0.6929, "won_contest": 0.6225, "challenges_lost": 0.4121, "fouls": 0.5187, "fouls_drawn": 0.4898, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1182, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0168, "ball_carries": 4.1223, "total_progression": 10.693, "progressive_carries": 0.1939, "shots_off_target": 0.7039, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9476, "creation_factor": 1.1778 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.339, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2164, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8619, "team_expected_assists": 0.9488, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7086, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1008, "xa_scale": 1.1008, "opponent_lambda": 1.0, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0568, "after": 0.0625 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.643, "expected_assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.0613, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0625, "goal_rate": 0.0512, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1952, "total_shots": 0.8991, "rating": 6.6984, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 9.0041, "accurate_pass": 7.0606, "duels_won": 1.7147, "total_long_balls": 0.671, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2821, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6157, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2771, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3884, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7835, "crosses_total": 0.855, "crosses_accurate": 0.4634, "touches": 14.9555, "possession_lost": 3.4066, "dispossessed": 0.2903, "duels_lost": 1.3913, "aerial_won": 0.1279, "aerial_lost": 0.0858, "interceptions": 0.2206, "tackles_won": 0.2334, "tackles": 0.4733, "clearances": 0.2896, "total_contest": 0.6929, "won_contest": 0.6225, 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0833 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0029 } ], "others": 0.001, "total": 0.0926, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.525566 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.181442 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.075845 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "margin": -0.048325 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.032408 } ], "others_margin": 0.009921 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2919778823852539, "model_output": 0.292, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": 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0.013417079113423824, "model_output": 0.0134, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0021 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0018 } ], "others": -0.0097, "total": 0.0134, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.421129 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.298687 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.149086 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.07914 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.074064 } ], "others_margin": -0.544666 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.22495384514331818, "model_output": 0.225, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3025 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0303 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0272 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0161 } ], "others": -0.0534, "total": 0.225, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.595697 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.085171 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.083085 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.063966 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.056346 } ], "others_margin": -0.213035 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.579867362976074, "model_output": 6.5799, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0573 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0244 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0569, "total": 6.5799, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.057297 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.02437 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017337 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015137 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.011313 } ], "others_margin": -0.05684 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9980, quality 0.455)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0954, "goals": 0.0924, "goal_rate": 0.0924, "shots_on_target": 0.2914, "total_shots": 0.7906, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "key_pass": 0.2245, "rating": 6.5799, "minutes": 20.72, "total_pass": 4.6798, "accurate_pass": 3.6081, "duels_won": 2.0032, "total_long_balls": 0.0579, "accurate_long_balls": 0.042, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0623, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3559, "crosses_total": 0.1548, "crosses_accurate": 0.1548, "touches": 10.4368, "possession_lost": 2.7382, "dispossessed": 0.8936, "duels_lost": 3.0533, "aerial_lost": 1.0763, "total_contest": 0.3989, "won_contest": 0.167, "ball_recovery": 0.5088, "challenges_lost": 0.1852, "fouls": 0.6819, "fouls_drawn": 0.8434, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0159, "tackles_won": 0.2003, "tackles": 0.2003, "clearances": 0.3225, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1211, "xgot": 0.1251, "offsides": 0.0687, "ball_carries": 2.2324, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1524, "shots_off_target": 0.4992 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4400000, "quality_factor": 0.4548, "boost_factor": 0.998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.7 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1168, "goals": 0.1131, "goal_rate": 0.1131, "shots_on_target": 0.3567, "total_shots": 0.9677, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "key_pass": 0.2748, "rating": 6.5799, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.728, "accurate_pass": 4.4163, "duels_won": 2.4519, "total_long_balls": 0.0709, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0514, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8836, 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"goals": 0.1131, "goal_rate": 0.1131, "shots_on_target": 0.3567, "total_shots": 0.9677, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "key_pass": 0.2748, "rating": 6.5799, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.728, "accurate_pass": 4.4163, "duels_won": 2.4519, "total_long_balls": 0.0709, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0514, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8836, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1895, "touches": 12.7745, "possession_lost": 3.3515, "dispossessed": 0.8936, "duels_lost": 3.7372, "aerial_lost": 1.0763, "total_contest": 0.4882, "won_contest": 0.2044, "ball_recovery": 0.6228, "challenges_lost": 0.1852, "fouls": 0.8346, "fouls_drawn": 1.0323, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0195, "tackles_won": 0.2452, "tackles": 0.2452, "clearances": 0.3947, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1482, "xgot": 0.1531, "offsides": 0.0687, "ball_carries": 2.7324, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1865, "shots_off_target": 0.611, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.2164, xG scale 1.1008, xA scale 1.1008, team xA 0.95 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1286, "goal_rate": 0.1131, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3567, "total_shots": 0.9677, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "key_pass": 0.2748, "rating": 6.5799, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.728, "accurate_pass": 4.4163, "duels_won": 2.4519, "total_long_balls": 0.0709, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0514, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8836, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1895, "touches": 12.7745, "possession_lost": 3.3515, "dispossessed": 0.8936, "duels_lost": 3.7372, "aerial_lost": 1.0763, "total_contest": 0.4882, "won_contest": 0.2044, "ball_recovery": 0.6228, "challenges_lost": 0.1852, "fouls": 0.8346, "fouls_drawn": 1.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0195, "tackles_won": 0.2452, "tackles": 0.2452, "clearances": 0.3947, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1482, "xgot": 0.1685, "offsides": 0.0687, "ball_carries": 2.7324, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1865, "shots_off_target": 0.611, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9778, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.339, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2164, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8619, "team_expected_assists": 0.9488, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7086, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1008, "xa_scale": 1.1008, "opponent_lambda": 1.0, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.562 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1168, "after": 0.1286 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1286, "goal_rate": 0.1131, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3567, "total_shots": 0.9677, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "key_pass": 0.2748, "rating": 6.5799, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.728, "accurate_pass": 4.4163, "duels_won": 2.4519, "total_long_balls": 0.0709, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0514, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8836, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1895, "touches": 12.7745, "possession_lost": 3.3515, "dispossessed": 0.8936, "duels_lost": 3.7372, "aerial_lost": 1.0763, "total_contest": 0.4882, "won_contest": 0.2044, "ball_recovery": 0.6228, "challenges_lost": 0.1852, "fouls": 0.8346, "fouls_drawn": 1.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0195, "tackles_won": 0.2452, "tackles": 0.2452, "clearances": 0.3947, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1482, "xgot": 0.1685, "offsides": 0.0687, "ball_carries": 2.7324, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1865, "shots_off_target": 0.611, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9778, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3669, "fifa_rank": 2920.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1286, "goal_rate": 0.1131, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3567, "total_shots": 0.9677, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "key_pass": 0.2748, "rating": 6.5799, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.728, "accurate_pass": 4.4163, "duels_won": 2.4519, "total_long_balls": 0.0709, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0514, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8836, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.1895, 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"contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0215, "total": 0.2839, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.557932 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.076125 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.070298 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.04638 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.040832 } ], "others_margin": -0.073048 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.622373104095459, "model_output": 6.6224, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], 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normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9887, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0621, "goals": 0.0736, "goal_rate": 0.0736, "shots_on_target": 0.2691, "total_shots": 0.7157, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "key_pass": 0.2807, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 18.81, "total_pass": 7.0691, "accurate_pass": 5.6504, "duels_won": 0.2241, "total_long_balls": 0.3103, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6747, "crosses_total": 1.4241, "crosses_accurate": 0.4879, "touches": 15.8786, "possession_lost": 6.3769, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 3.3436, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 0.7586, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7982, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.2637, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2241, "tackles": 0.2241, "clearances": 0.574, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2637, "big_chances_missed": 0.3267, "xgot": 0.0819, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9211, "total_progression": 35.9481, "progressive_carries": 2.4394, "shots_off_target": 0.4466 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9887, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.8 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0835, "goals": 0.099, "goal_rate": 0.099, "shots_on_target": 0.3618, "total_shots": 0.9623, "expected_assists": 0.0317, "key_pass": 0.3774, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, "possession_lost": 8.5745, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 4.4959, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 1.02, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0733, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.3546, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3013, "tackles": 0.3013, "clearances": 0.7718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4393, "xgot": 0.1101, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9616, "total_progression": 48.3364, "progressive_carries": 3.2801, "shots_off_target": 0.6005, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "projection_minutes": 18.81, "minutes_scale": 1.3446, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0835, "goals": 0.099, "goal_rate": 0.099, "shots_on_target": 0.3618, "total_shots": 0.9623, "expected_assists": 0.0317, "key_pass": 0.3774, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, "possession_lost": 8.5745, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 4.4959, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 1.02, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0733, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.3546, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3013, "tackles": 0.3013, "clearances": 0.7718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4393, "xgot": 0.1101, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9616, "total_progression": 48.3364, "progressive_carries": 3.2801, "shots_off_target": 0.6005, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.34 (squad xG sum 1.2164, xG scale 1.1008, xA scale 1.1008, team xA 0.95 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0919, "goal_rate": 0.099, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3618, "total_shots": 0.9623, "expected_assists": 0.0349, "key_pass": 0.3774, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, "possession_lost": 8.5745, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 4.4959, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 1.02, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0733, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.3546, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3013, "tackles": 0.3013, "clearances": 0.7718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4393, "xgot": 0.1212, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9616, "total_progression": 48.3364, "progressive_carries": 3.2801, "shots_off_target": 0.6005, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1161, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.339, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2164, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8619, "team_expected_assists": 0.9488, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7086, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1008, "xa_scale": 1.1008, "opponent_lambda": 1.0, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.559 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0835, "after": 0.0919 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0919, "goal_rate": 0.099, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3618, "total_shots": 0.9623, "expected_assists": 0.0349, "key_pass": 0.3774, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, "possession_lost": 8.5745, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 4.4959, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 1.02, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0733, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.3546, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3013, "tackles": 0.3013, "clearances": 0.7718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4393, "xgot": 0.1212, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9616, "total_progression": 48.3364, "progressive_carries": 3.2801, "shots_off_target": 0.6005, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1161, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1617, "fifa_rank": 1117.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0919, "goal_rate": 0.099, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3618, "total_shots": 0.9623, "expected_assists": 0.0349, "key_pass": 0.3774, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, "possession_lost": 8.5745, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 4.4959, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 1.02, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0733, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.3546, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3013, "tackles": 0.3013, "clearances": 0.7718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4393, "xgot": 0.1212, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9616, "total_progression": 48.3364, "progressive_carries": 3.2801, "shots_off_target": 0.6005, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0491, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1161, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0491, "scorer_weight": 0.0573, "squad_weight_total": 1.4853, "weight_share": 0.0386, "finishing_factor": 1.1161, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.435, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.435, "runner_up": "Álvaro García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2355 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0919, "goal_rate": 0.099, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3618, "total_shots": 0.9623, "expected_assists": 0.0349, "key_pass": 0.3774, "rating": 6.6224, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.5052, "accurate_pass": 7.5976, "duels_won": 0.3013, "total_long_balls": 0.4172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4213, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2857, "crosses_total": 1.9149, "crosses_accurate": 0.656, "touches": 21.3506, "possession_lost": 8.5745, "dispossessed": 0.7646, "duels_lost": 4.4959, "aerial_lost": 0.7982, "total_contest": 1.02, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0733, "challenges_lost": 0.7586, "fouls": 0.3546, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3013, "tackles": 0.3013, "clearances": 0.7718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3546, "big_chances_missed": 0.4393, "xgot": 0.1212, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9616, "total_progression": 48.3364, "progressive_carries": 3.2801, "shots_off_target": 0.6005, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0491, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0192, "finishing_factor": 1.1161, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0192, "provider_weight": 0.0156, "squad_weight_total": 0.9695, "weight_share": 0.0161, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "weight": 0.1859, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1859, "runner_up": "Álvaro García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1496, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Sergio Camello" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.34, "expected_assists": 0.95, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 397, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.85, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3 } }, "Athletic Club": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Yuri Berchiche": { "player_id": 84531, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 181, "market_value": 910000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.0511, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 50, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 34, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 76, "possession_lost": 9.8495, "dispossessed": 0.2677, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1756, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0441, "expected_assists": 0.13, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.012, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 79, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "opponent_faced": "Jorge de Frutos", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0431, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1219, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.025, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0727, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 78, "accurate_pass": 70, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 5, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416322, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1335, "expected_assists": 0.0482, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 82, "accurate_pass": 77, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0131, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 32, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416308, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0536, "expected_assists": 0.199, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 64, "accurate_pass": 61, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416301, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 3.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.05, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 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0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 43, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083364, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 43, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, 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"player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0511, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yuri Berchiche", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Her Dong-min", "ranking": 1546 }, { "player_name": "Filip Jørgensen", "ranking": 1547 }, { "player_name": "Olivier Boscagli", "ranking": 1548 }, { "player_name": "Bernd Leno", "ranking": 1549 }, { "player_name": "Fredrik Aursnes", "ranking": 1550 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Óscar Trejo", "ranking": 1552 }, { "player_name": "Han Jong-Mu", "ranking": 1553 }, { "player_name": "Eli Junior Kroupi", "ranking": 1554 }, { "player_name": "Firdavs Abdurakhmonov", "ranking": 1555 }, { "player_name": "Seul-chan Lee", "ranking": 1556 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.761, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1831 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1713 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1506 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0968 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0683 } ], "others": -0.1936, "total": 0.8845, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124404 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.115918 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.114371 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.081026 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.06138 } ], "others_margin": -0.198002 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.239200472831726, "model_output": 1.2392, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4458 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1947 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0784 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0268 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.019 } ], "others": 0.095, "total": 1.2392, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.445795 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.194651 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.078383 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.026828 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.019048 } ], "others_margin": 0.095116 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.0511250495910645, "model_output": 7.0511, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0622 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0518 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0438 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0334 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0273 } ], "others": 0.0475, "total": 7.0511, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.062176 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.051819 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.043836 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.033445 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.027313 } ], "others_margin": 0.047404 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9976, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9036, "tackles": 1.6869, "tackles_won": 0.942, "clearances": 2.4121, "aerial_won": 0.8824, "total_shots": 1.2363, "rating": 7.0511, "minutes": 81.57, "total_pass": 55.231, "accurate_pass": 50.0354, "duels_won": 3.6921, "total_long_balls": 3.2238, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6653, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3536, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.8107, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.6816, "crosses_total": 2.6029, "crosses_accurate": 0.5626, "touches": 75.642, "possession_lost": 9.8495, "dispossessed": 0.2677, "duels_lost": 2.2999, "aerial_lost": 0.7585, "total_contest": 0.5718, "won_contest": 0.2632, "ball_recovery": 5.3493, "challenges_lost": 0.3631, "fouls": 0.9085, "fouls_drawn": 0.4855, "blocks": 0.0539, "goals": 0.0, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1015 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0341 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0202 } ], "others": -0.0971, "total": 0.8133, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11228 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.035044 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.031769 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.030104 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.021947 } ], "others_margin": -0.112719 } }, { "target": 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}, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.043865 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.031747 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.029251 } ], "others_margin": -0.044984 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5256876349449158, "model_output": 0.5257, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0609 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0323 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0276, "total": 0.5257, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.060911 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.032331 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.01991 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.019415 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.01151 } ], "others_margin": -0.02767 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.006713390350342, "model_output": 7.0067, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0672 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0378 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0334 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0303 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0137 } ], "others": 0.0392, "total": 7.0067, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.067245 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.037833 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.033352 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.030265 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.013719 } ], "others_margin": 0.039167 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 29, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9999, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0099, "tackles": 1.2818, "tackles_won": 0.8132, "clearances": 4.5844, "aerial_won": 1.8774, "total_shots": 0.5257, "rating": 7.0067, "minutes": 87.08, "total_pass": 66.9211, "accurate_pass": 62.2595, "duels_won": 3.713, "total_long_balls": 4.7979, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8115, "total_own_half_passes": 41.1542, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.8615, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.398, "crosses_total": 0.0784, "crosses_accurate": 0.0112, "touches": 77.1447, "possession_lost": 5.1599, "dispossessed": 0.0036, "duels_lost": 2.2081, "aerial_lost": 0.9982, "total_contest": 0.2158, "won_contest": 0.1228, "ball_recovery": 4.0238, "challenges_lost": 0.3688, "fouls": 0.7444, "fouls_drawn": 0.5471, "blocks": 0.2697, "goals": 0.0, 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"contribution": -0.0246 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0175 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0117 } ], "others": -0.0026, "total": 0.5553, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062817 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024626 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.019375 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.017463 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.011664 } ], "others_margin": -0.002552 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.724548816680908, "model_output": 6.7245, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0261 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9937, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.081, "tackles": 1.0661, "tackles_won": 0.7132, "clearances": 4.3773, "aerial_won": 1.3628, "total_shots": 0.5518, "rating": 6.7245, "minutes": 79.45, "total_pass": 52.7695, "accurate_pass": 45.8133, "duels_won": 3.1808, "total_long_balls": 6.874, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7356, "total_own_half_passes": 29.6122, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.8014, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0119, "crosses_total": 0.6179, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.0582, "possession_lost": 8.4816, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.348, "aerial_lost": 1.5139, "total_contest": 0.6398, "won_contest": 0.4559, "ball_recovery": 3.865, "challenges_lost": 0.4538, "fouls": 0.4325, "fouls_drawn": 0.809, "blocks": 0.3971, "goals": 0.0, 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"history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.468)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1271, "tackles": 1.6995, "tackles_won": 1.0809, "clearances": 2.2438, "aerial_won": 1.0299, "total_shots": 0.5271, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 79.12, "total_pass": 28.5717, "accurate_pass": 22.7337, "duels_won": 3.8937, "total_long_balls": 1.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3517, "total_own_half_passes": 11.2196, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2892, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3521, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4445, "crosses_total": 3.7544, "crosses_accurate": 1.0389, "touches": 51.036, "possession_lost": 12.279, "dispossessed": 0.4165, "duels_lost": 2.7604, "aerial_lost": 0.5986, "total_contest": 0.9275, "won_contest": 0.3357, "ball_recovery": 2.7509, "challenges_lost": 0.3978, "fouls": 0.9363, "fouls_drawn": 0.5308, "blocks": 0.2518, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0225, "assist_rate": 0.0225, "expected_goals": 0.0111, "expected_assists": 0.0499, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0551, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.112, "total_progression": 59.7649, "progressive_carries": 1.614, "key_pass": 1.09, "shots_off_target": 0.5271 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5500000, "quality_factor": 0.4683, "boost_factor": 0.9985, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0096)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1215, "tackles": 1.6995, "tackles_won": 1.0758, "clearances": 2.2438, "aerial_won": 1.0299, "total_shots": 0.5274, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 79.12, "total_pass": 28.5717, "accurate_pass": 22.7337, "duels_won": 3.8937, "total_long_balls": 1.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3517, "total_own_half_passes": 11.2196, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2892, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3521, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4445, "crosses_total": 3.75, "crosses_accurate": 1.0389, "touches": 51.036, "possession_lost": 12.279, "dispossessed": 0.4165, "duels_lost": 2.7604, "aerial_lost": 0.5986, "total_contest": 0.9275, "won_contest": 0.3357, "ball_recovery": 2.7509, "challenges_lost": 0.3978, "fouls": 0.9379, "fouls_drawn": 0.5416, "blocks": 0.2518, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0223, "assist_rate": 0.0223, "expected_goals": 0.0111, "expected_assists": 0.0499, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0551, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.112, "total_progression": 59.7649, "progressive_carries": 1.614, "key_pass": 1.09, "shots_off_target": 0.5271 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0096, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8791, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.5308, "after": 0.5416 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"blocks": 0.2518, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0223, "assist_rate": 0.0223, "expected_goals": 0.0111, "expected_assists": 0.0499, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0551, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.112, "total_progression": 59.7649, "progressive_carries": 1.614, "key_pass": 1.09, "shots_off_target": 0.5271 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1215, "tackles": 1.6995, "tackles_won": 1.0758, "clearances": 2.2438, "aerial_won": 1.0299, "total_shots": 0.5274, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 79.12, "total_pass": 28.5717, "accurate_pass": 22.7337, "duels_won": 3.8937, "total_long_balls": 1.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3517, "total_own_half_passes": 11.2196, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2892, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3521, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4445, 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"defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jorge de Frutos", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.00 (squad xG sum 0.9498, xG scale 1.0529, xA scale 0.7645, team xA 0.80 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1215, "tackles": 1.6995, "tackles_won": 1.0758, "clearances": 2.2438, "aerial_won": 1.0299, "total_shots": 0.5274, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 79.12, "total_pass": 28.5717, "accurate_pass": 22.7337, "duels_won": 3.8937, "total_long_balls": 1.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3517, "total_own_half_passes": 11.2196, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2892, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3521, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4445, "crosses_total": 3.75, "crosses_accurate": 1.0389, "touches": 51.036, "possession_lost": 12.279, "dispossessed": 0.4165, "duels_lost": 2.7604, "aerial_lost": 0.5986, "total_contest": 0.9275, "won_contest": 0.3357, "ball_recovery": 2.7509, "challenges_lost": 0.3978, "fouls": 0.9379, "fouls_drawn": 0.5416, "blocks": 0.2518, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0223, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0117, "expected_assists": 0.0382, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0551, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.112, "total_progression": 59.7649, "progressive_carries": 1.614, "key_pass": 1.09, "shots_off_target": 0.5271, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.544, "opponent_faced": "Jorge de Frutos", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8183, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.0, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9498, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0464, "team_expected_assists": 0.8, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0529, "xa_scale": 0.7645, "opponent_lambda": 1.339, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0499, "after": 0.0382 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1215, "tackles": 1.6995, "tackles_won": 1.0758, "clearances": 2.2438, "aerial_won": 1.0299, "total_shots": 0.5274, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 79.12, "total_pass": 28.5717, "accurate_pass": 22.7337, "duels_won": 3.8937, "total_long_balls": 1.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3517, "total_own_half_passes": 11.2196, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2892, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3521, 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"antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8183, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1711, "fifa_rank": 694.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1215, "tackles": 1.6995, "tackles_won": 1.0758, "clearances": 2.2438, "aerial_won": 1.0299, "total_shots": 0.5274, "rating": 6.6751, "minutes": 79.12, "total_pass": 28.5717, "accurate_pass": 22.7337, "duels_won": 3.8937, "total_long_balls": 1.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3517, 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2.7321, "shots_off_target": 1.1176 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-09T10:04:11.914604+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.170884 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.148548 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.118175 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.089163 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.082188 } ], "others_margin": -0.025408 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.6572657823562622, "model_output": 0.6573, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0786 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0596 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0626 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0557 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.029 } ], "others": 0.0478, "total": 0.6573, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.217271 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.138064 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12705 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.100834 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.048765 } ], "others_margin": 0.075388 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.7748441696166992, "model_output": 1.7748, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2703 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1765 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0989 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0656 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0555 } ], "others": 0.2285, "total": 1.7748, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.27034 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.176457 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.09886 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.065563 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.055503 } ], "others_margin": 0.228663 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.019752025604248, "model_output": 7.0198, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0368 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0245 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0164 } ], "others": 0.0517, "total": 7.0198, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.036759 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.024502 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.023251 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.018222 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.016355 } ], "others_margin": 0.051792 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9991, quality 0.481)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6177, "expected_assists": 0.1465, "assists": 0.1314, "assist_rate": 0.1314, "expected_goals": 0.1667, "goals": 0.1749, "goal_rate": 0.1749, "shots_on_target": 0.6567, "total_shots": 1.7733, "rating": 7.0198, "minutes": 73.98, "total_pass": 22.3533, "accurate_pass": 18.3168, "duels_won": 2.748, "total_long_balls": 1.0129, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2992, "total_own_half_passes": 5.346, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.7835, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0073, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5333, "crosses_total": 3.3202, "crosses_accurate": 1.1744, "touches": 38.2087, "possession_lost": 9.8215, "dispossessed": 0.7848, "duels_lost": 3.811, "aerial_won": 0.1228, "aerial_lost": 1.2227, "interceptions": 0.8253, "tackles_won": 0.5322, "tackles": 1.0617, "clearances": 0.3067, "total_contest": 1.9767, "won_contest": 1.0677, "challenges_lost": 0.3707, "fouls": 0.5238, "fouls_drawn": 0.4957, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1492, "big_chances_missed": 0.1667, "xgot": 0.3525, "ball_carries": 13.266, "total_progression": 48.572, "progressive_carries": 2.7296, "shots_off_target": 1.1166 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6500000, "quality_factor": 0.4805, "boost_factor": 0.9991, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6177, "expected_assists": 0.1465, "assists": 0.1314, "assist_rate": 0.1314, "expected_goals": 0.1667, "goals": 0.1749, "goal_rate": 0.1749, "shots_on_target": 0.6567, "total_shots": 1.7733, "rating": 7.0198, "minutes": 73.98, "total_pass": 22.3533, "accurate_pass": 18.3168, "duels_won": 2.748, "total_long_balls": 1.0129, 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"expected_assists": 0.1465, "assists": 0.1314, "assist_rate": 0.1314, "expected_goals": 0.1722, "goals": 0.1807, "goal_rate": 0.1807, "shots_on_target": 0.6785, "total_shots": 1.8322, "rating": 7.0198, "minutes": 73.98, "total_pass": 22.3533, "accurate_pass": 18.3168, "duels_won": 2.748, "total_long_balls": 1.0129, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2992, "total_own_half_passes": 5.346, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.7835, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0073, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5333, "crosses_total": 3.3202, "crosses_accurate": 1.1744, "touches": 38.2087, "possession_lost": 9.8215, "dispossessed": 0.7848, "duels_lost": 3.811, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 1.2227, "interceptions": 0.8253, "tackles_won": 0.5322, "tackles": 1.0617, "clearances": 0.3067, "total_contest": 1.9767, "won_contest": 1.0677, "challenges_lost": 0.3707, "fouls": 0.5238, "fouls_drawn": 0.4957, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1492, "big_chances_missed": 0.1722, "xgot": 0.3642, "ball_carries": 13.266, 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"total": 6.8825, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.045845 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.035003 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.032913 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.014848 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.014555 } ], "others_margin": -0.017796 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1081 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0446 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0219 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0188 } ], "others": 0.0023, "total": 7.1857, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.009122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.108065 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.044616 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.02187 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": -0.019141 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.01882 } ], "others_margin": 0.002331 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083597, "match_date": "2026-03-07", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0193, "expected_assists": 0.0587, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 7, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2014, "combined_rank_score": 938.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 766.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6484, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 1110.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7306, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dani Vivian", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Egor Khvalko", "ranking": 2009 }, { "player_name": "Vladislav Malkevich", "ranking": 2010 }, { "player_name": "Ayoub El Kaabi", "ranking": 2011 }, { "player_name": "Viktor Tsygankov", "ranking": 2012 }, { "player_name": "Brennan Johnson", "ranking": 2013 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Joaquín Larrivey", "ranking": 2015 }, { "player_name": "Dominik Livaković", "ranking": 2016 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Nübel", "ranking": 2017 }, { "player_name": "Domingos Duarte", "ranking": 2018 }, { "player_name": "Davide Frattesi", "ranking": 2019 } ] } }, 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"count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8717 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1061 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0295 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0212 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.015 } ], "others": -0.0707, "total": 0.3692, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.9963 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.233004 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.070446 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.047794 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.03342 } ], "others_margin": -0.175357 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1577257663011551, "model_output": 0.1577, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.247 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0252 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0078 } ], "others": -0.0398, "total": 0.1577, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.247048 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025169 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.01523 }, { 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0.015561 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.015552 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.013455 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.012603 } ], "others_margin": -0.068852 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7331 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1081 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0509 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0364 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0359 } ], "others": 0.077, "total": 0.9572, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.756026 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.15403 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.065112 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.044106 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.041662 } ], "others_margin": 0.083779 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2622115910053253, "model_output": 0.2622, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2415 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0078 } ], "others": -0.0098, "total": 0.2622, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.241502 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.024432 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.023116 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.012916 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.007849 } ], "others_margin": -0.009899 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8805832862854, "model_output": 6.8806, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0271 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0228 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0179 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0132 } ], "others": 0.0436, "total": 6.8806, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.029125 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.027096 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.022838 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.017876 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.013242 } ], "others_margin": 0.043526 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9991, quality 0.488)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4377, "tackles": 0.5892, "tackles_won": 0.3591, "clearances": 2.1556, "aerial_won": 0.9563, "total_shots": 0.262, "rating": 6.8806, "minutes": 23.23, "total_pass": 54.9808, "accurate_pass": 50.1677, "duels_won": 3.2553, "total_long_balls": 6.9437, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9173, "total_own_half_passes": 31.4569, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.9753, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5239, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1924, "crosses_total": 0.2471, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.6557, "possession_lost": 5.3925, "dispossessed": 0.0579, "duels_lost": 1.6202, "aerial_lost": 0.4262, "total_contest": 0.0997, "won_contest": 0.0997, "ball_recovery": 3.8244, "challenges_lost": 0.2422, "fouls": 0.8939, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "blocks": 0.1539, "goals": 0.2033, 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"total_opp_half_passes": 23.5239, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1924, "crosses_total": 0.2477, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.6557, "possession_lost": 5.3925, "dispossessed": 0.0579, "duels_lost": 1.6202, "aerial_lost": 0.4262, "total_contest": 0.0997, "won_contest": 0.0997, "ball_recovery": 3.8244, "challenges_lost": 0.2422, "fouls": 0.8874, "fouls_drawn": 0.3808, "blocks": 0.1539, "goals": 0.2025, "goal_rate": 0.2025, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0473, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "shots_on_target": 0.2188, "big_chances_created": 0.0589, "xgot": 0.1448, "ball_carries": 16.9156, "total_progression": 57.5139, "progressive_carries": 0.7267, "key_pass": 0.4288, "shots_off_target": 0.0421 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0139, "history_matches": 23, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2581, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8939, "after": 0.8874 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.2 to 13.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.22)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2571, "tackles": 0.3493, "tackles_won": 0.2123, "clearances": 1.2779, "aerial_won": 0.5669, "total_shots": 0.1547, "rating": 6.8806, "minutes": 13.77, "total_pass": 32.5951, "accurate_pass": 29.7417, "duels_won": 1.9299, "total_long_balls": 4.1165, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3224, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6491, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7707, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.971, "crosses_total": 0.1468, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.9237, "possession_lost": 3.1969, "dispossessed": 0.0579, "duels_lost": 0.9605, "aerial_lost": 0.4262, "total_contest": 0.0591, "won_contest": 0.0591, "ball_recovery": 2.2673, "challenges_lost": 0.2422, "fouls": 0.5261, "fouls_drawn": 0.2258, "blocks": 0.0912, "goals": 0.1201, "goal_rate": 0.1201, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.028, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "shots_on_target": 0.1297, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "xgot": 0.0858, "ball_carries": 10.0283, "total_progression": 34.0969, "progressive_carries": 0.4308, "key_pass": 0.2542, "shots_off_target": 0.025, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.221, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.77 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.77, "projection_minutes": 23.23, "minutes_scale": 0.5928, "appearance_probability": 0.221 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2571, "tackles": 0.3493, "tackles_won": 0.2123, "clearances": 1.2779, "aerial_won": 0.5669, "total_shots": 0.1547, "rating": 6.8806, "minutes": 13.77, "total_pass": 32.5951, "accurate_pass": 29.7417, "duels_won": 1.9299, "total_long_balls": 4.1165, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3224, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6491, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7707, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.946, 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0.2571, "tackles": 0.3493, "tackles_won": 0.2123, "clearances": 1.2779, "aerial_won": 0.5669, "total_shots": 0.1547, "rating": 6.8806, "minutes": 13.77, "total_pass": 32.5951, "accurate_pass": 29.7417, "duels_won": 1.9299, "total_long_balls": 4.1165, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3224, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6491, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7707, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.971, "crosses_total": 0.1468, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.9237, "possession_lost": 3.1969, "dispossessed": 0.0579, "duels_lost": 0.9605, "aerial_lost": 0.4262, "total_contest": 0.0591, "won_contest": 0.0591, "ball_recovery": 2.2673, "challenges_lost": 0.2422, "fouls": 0.5261, "fouls_drawn": 0.2258, "blocks": 0.0912, "goal_rate": 0.1201, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.028, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "shots_on_target": 0.1297, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "xgot": 0.0858, "ball_carries": 10.0283, "total_progression": 34.0969, "progressive_carries": 0.4308, "key_pass": 0.2542, "shots_off_target": 0.025, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.221, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.77, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.221, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2571, "tackles": 0.3493, "tackles_won": 0.2123, "clearances": 1.2779, "aerial_won": 0.5669, "total_shots": 0.1547, "rating": 6.8806, "minutes": 13.77, "total_pass": 32.5951, "accurate_pass": 29.7417, "duels_won": 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"touches_p90", "margin": 0.007892 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.005768 } ], "others_margin": -0.015342 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0072, quality 0.725)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3467, "expected_assists": 0.0267, "assists": 0.0416, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "expected_goals": 0.0336, "goals": 0.044, "goal_rate": 0.044, "shots_on_target": 0.1362, "total_shots": 0.3811, "rating": 6.7192, "minutes": 24.64, "total_pass": 16.8222, "accurate_pass": 13.8629, "duels_won": 2.3087, "total_long_balls": 1.8709, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3911, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9187, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8546, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0083, "crosses_total": 0.1668, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3229, "possession_lost": 3.999, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2915, "aerial_won": 0.6051, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9726, "tackles_won": 0.7332, "tackles": 1.1603, "clearances": 0.3336, "total_contest": 0.1668, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 0.5938, "fouls_drawn": 0.5432, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 4.9919, "total_progression": 8.611, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2449 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.0072, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0052)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3467, "expected_assists": 0.0267, "assists": 0.0414, "assist_rate": 0.0414, "expected_goals": 0.0336, "goals": 0.0438, "goal_rate": 0.0438, "shots_on_target": 0.1355, "total_shots": 0.3791, "rating": 6.7192, "minutes": 24.64, "total_pass": 16.8222, "accurate_pass": 13.8629, "duels_won": 2.3087, "total_long_balls": 1.8709, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3911, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9187, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8546, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0083, "crosses_total": 0.1659, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3229, "possession_lost": 3.999, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2915, "aerial_won": 0.6051, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9714, "tackles_won": 0.7307, "tackles": 1.1603, "clearances": 0.3336, "total_contest": 0.1668, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 0.5933, "fouls_drawn": 0.5404, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 4.9919, "total_progression": 8.611, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2449 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0052, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2738, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.6 to 24.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3475, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "assists": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "expected_goals": 0.0337, "goals": 0.0439, "goal_rate": 0.0439, "shots_on_target": 0.1358, "total_shots": 0.3813, "rating": 6.7192, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.8632, "accurate_pass": 13.8967, "duels_won": 2.3143, "total_long_balls": 1.8755, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3945, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8737, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0229, "crosses_total": 0.1663, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3797, "possession_lost": 4.0087, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2971, "aerial_won": 0.6066, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9738, "tackles_won": 0.7325, "tackles": 1.1631, "clearances": 0.3344, "total_contest": 0.1672, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 0.5947, "fouls_drawn": 0.5417, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 5.0041, "total_progression": 8.632, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 24.7, "projection_minutes": 24.64, "minutes_scale": 1.0024, "appearance_probability": 0.523 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3475, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "assists": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "expected_goals": 0.0337, "goals": 0.0439, "goal_rate": 0.0439, "shots_on_target": 0.1358, "total_shots": 0.3813, "rating": 6.7192, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.8632, "accurate_pass": 13.8967, "duels_won": 2.3143, "total_long_balls": 1.8755, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3945, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8737, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0229, "crosses_total": 0.1663, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3797, "possession_lost": 4.0087, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2971, "aerial_won": 0.6066, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9738, "tackles_won": 0.7325, "tackles": 1.1631, "clearances": 0.3344, "total_contest": 0.1672, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 0.5947, "fouls_drawn": 0.5417, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 5.0041, "total_progression": 8.632, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.00 (squad xG sum 0.9498, xG scale 1.0529, xA scale 0.7645, team xA 0.80 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3475, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0355, "goal_rate": 0.0439, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1358, "total_shots": 0.3813, "rating": 6.7192, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.8632, "accurate_pass": 13.8967, "duels_won": 2.3143, "total_long_balls": 1.8755, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3945, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8737, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0229, "crosses_total": 0.1663, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3797, "possession_lost": 4.0087, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2971, "aerial_won": 0.6066, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9738, "tackles_won": 0.7325, "tackles": 1.1631, "clearances": 0.3344, "total_contest": 0.1672, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 0.5947, "fouls_drawn": 0.5417, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0028, "ball_carries": 5.0041, "total_progression": 8.632, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1219, "creation_factor": 1.1914 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.0, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9498, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0464, "team_expected_assists": 0.8, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0529, "xa_scale": 0.7645, "opponent_lambda": 1.339, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.523 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0268, "after": 0.0205 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3475, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0355, "goal_rate": 0.0439, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1358, "total_shots": 0.3813, "rating": 6.7192, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.8632, "accurate_pass": 13.8967, "duels_won": 2.3143, "total_long_balls": 1.8755, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3945, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8737, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0229, "crosses_total": 0.1663, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3797, "possession_lost": 4.0087, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2971, "aerial_won": 0.6066, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9738, "tackles_won": 0.7325, "tackles": 1.1631, "clearances": 0.3344, "total_contest": 0.1672, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 0.5947, "fouls_drawn": 0.5417, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0028, "ball_carries": 5.0041, "total_progression": 8.632, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1219, "creation_factor": 1.1914, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1561, "fifa_rank": 915.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3475, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0355, "goal_rate": 0.0439, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1358, "total_shots": 0.3813, "rating": 6.7192, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.8632, "accurate_pass": 13.8967, "duels_won": 2.3143, "total_long_balls": 1.8755, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3945, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8737, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0229, "crosses_total": 0.1663, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3797, "possession_lost": 4.0087, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2971, "aerial_won": 0.6066, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9738, "tackles_won": 0.7325, "tackles": 1.1631, "clearances": 0.3344, "total_contest": 0.1672, "won_contest": 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"appearance_weight": 0.523, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3475, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0355, "goal_rate": 0.0439, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1358, "total_shots": 0.3813, "rating": 6.7192, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.8632, "accurate_pass": 13.8967, "duels_won": 2.3143, "total_long_balls": 1.8755, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3945, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8737, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0229, "crosses_total": 0.1663, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3797, "possession_lost": 4.0087, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2971, "aerial_won": 0.6066, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9738, "tackles_won": 0.7325, "tackles": 1.1631, "clearances": 0.3344, "total_contest": 0.1672, 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1.1914, "appearance_weight": 0.523, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Oihan Sancet": { "player_id": 966801, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 188, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "assist_rate": 0.0964, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0702, "goal_rate": 0.0745, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7303, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.6454, "dispossessed": 0.9315, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, 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"contribution": 0.0543 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0534 } ], "others": 0.1995, "total": 1.0617, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.649658 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.453769 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.066727 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.054296 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.053414 } ], "others_margin": 0.199533 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.730278491973877, "model_output": 6.7303, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0896 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0458 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0339 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0241 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0194 } ], "others": -0.0362, "total": 6.7303, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.089646 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.045844 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.033942 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024061 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.019361 } ], "others_margin": -0.036149 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0063, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7487, "expected_assists": 0.0849, "assists": 0.136, "assist_rate": 0.136, "expected_goals": 0.0976, "goals": 0.1052, "goal_rate": 0.1052, "shots_on_target": 0.3122, "total_shots": 1.0684, "rating": 6.7303, "minutes": 31.81, "total_pass": 11.2079, "accurate_pass": 10.1319, "duels_won": 3.4356, "total_long_balls": 1.1065, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8535, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2939, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9334, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1986, "crosses_total": 1.1619, "crosses_accurate": 0.2977, "touches": 20.2116, "possession_lost": 5.0666, "dispossessed": 0.9315, "duels_lost": 3.5571, "aerial_won": 0.797, "aerial_lost": 0.6359, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.731, "tackles": 1.3235, "clearances": 0.215, "total_contest": 0.9873, "won_contest": 0.4174, "challenges_lost": 0.5662, "fouls": 0.8535, "fouls_drawn": 0.8977, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1488, "xgot": 0.2161, "ball_carries": 7.2899, "total_progression": 29.718, "progressive_carries": 0.7093, "shots_off_target": 0.7562 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0063, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0150)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7487, "expected_assists": 0.0849, "assists": 0.134, "assist_rate": 0.134, "expected_goals": 0.0976, "goals": 0.1036, "goal_rate": 0.1036, "shots_on_target": 0.3134, "total_shots": 1.068, "rating": 6.7303, "minutes": 31.81, "total_pass": 11.2079, "accurate_pass": 10.1319, "duels_won": 3.4356, "total_long_balls": 1.1065, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8535, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2939, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9334, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1986, "crosses_total": 1.1484, "crosses_accurate": 0.2977, "touches": 20.2116, "possession_lost": 5.0666, "dispossessed": 0.9315, "duels_lost": 3.5571, "aerial_won": 0.797, "aerial_lost": 0.6359, "interceptions": 0.0039, "tackles_won": 0.722, "tackles": 1.3235, "clearances": 0.215, "total_contest": 0.9873, "won_contest": 0.4174, "challenges_lost": 0.5662, "fouls": 0.8427, "fouls_drawn": 0.8921, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1488, "xgot": 0.2161, "ball_carries": 7.2899, "total_progression": 29.718, "progressive_carries": 0.7093, "shots_off_target": 0.7562 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.015, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3534, "prior_reliability": 0.18, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.1619, "after": 1.1484 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8535, "after": 0.8427 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.731, "after": 0.722 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.8977, "after": 0.8921 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 31.8 to 22.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.33)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5387, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "assists": 0.0964, "assist_rate": 0.0964, "expected_goals": 0.0702, "goals": 0.0745, "goal_rate": 0.0745, "shots_on_target": 0.2255, "total_shots": 0.7696, "rating": 6.7303, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 8.0641, "accurate_pass": 7.2899, "duels_won": 2.4719, "total_long_balls": 0.7961, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6141, "total_own_half_passes": 2.37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1106, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1794, "crosses_total": 0.8263, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 14.5423, "possession_lost": 3.6454, "dispossessed": 0.9315, "duels_lost": 2.5593, "aerial_won": 0.5734, "aerial_lost": 0.6359, "interceptions": 0.0028, "tackles_won": 0.5195, "tackles": 0.9523, "clearances": 0.1547, "total_contest": 0.7104, "won_contest": 0.3003, "challenges_lost": 0.5662, "fouls": 0.6063, "fouls_drawn": 0.6419, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1071, "xgot": 0.1555, "ball_carries": 5.2451, "total_progression": 21.3822, "progressive_carries": 0.5103, "shots_off_target": 0.5441, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.326, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.89, "projection_minutes": 31.81, "minutes_scale": 0.7195, "appearance_probability": 0.326 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5387, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "assists": 0.0964, "assist_rate": 0.0964, "expected_goals": 0.0702, "goals": 0.0745, "goal_rate": 0.0745, "shots_on_target": 0.2255, "total_shots": 0.7696, "rating": 6.7303, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 8.0641, "accurate_pass": 7.2899, "duels_won": 2.4719, "total_long_balls": 0.7961, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6141, "total_own_half_passes": 2.37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1106, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1794, "crosses_total": 0.8263, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 14.5423, "possession_lost": 3.6454, "dispossessed": 0.9315, "duels_lost": 2.5593, "aerial_won": 0.5734, "aerial_lost": 0.6359, "interceptions": 0.0028, "tackles_won": 0.5195, "tackles": 0.9523, "clearances": 0.1547, "total_contest": 0.7104, "won_contest": 0.3003, "challenges_lost": 0.5662, "fouls": 0.6063, "fouls_drawn": 0.6419, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1071, "xgot": 0.1555, "ball_carries": 5.2451, "total_progression": 21.3822, "progressive_carries": 0.5103, "shots_off_target": 0.5441, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.326, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5387, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "assist_rate": 0.0964, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0702, "goal_rate": 0.0745, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2255, "total_shots": 0.7696, "rating": 6.7303, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 8.0641, "accurate_pass": 7.2899, "duels_won": 2.4719, "total_long_balls": 0.7961, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6141, "total_own_half_passes": 2.37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1106, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1794, "crosses_total": 0.8263, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 14.5423, "possession_lost": 3.6454, "dispossessed": 0.9315, "duels_lost": 2.5593, "aerial_won": 0.5734, "aerial_lost": 0.6359, "interceptions": 0.0028, "tackles_won": 0.5195, "tackles": 0.9523, "clearances": 0.1547, "total_contest": 0.7104, "won_contest": 0.3003, "challenges_lost": 0.5662, "fouls": 0.6063, "fouls_drawn": 0.6419, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1071, "xgot": 0.1555, "ball_carries": 5.2451, "total_progression": 21.3822, "progressive_carries": 0.5103, "shots_off_target": 0.5441, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.326, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.326, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5387, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "assist_rate": 0.0964, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0702, "goal_rate": 0.0745, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2255, "total_shots": 0.7696, "rating": 6.7303, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 8.0641, "accurate_pass": 7.2899, "duels_won": 2.4719, "total_long_balls": 0.7961, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6141, "total_own_half_passes": 2.37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1106, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1794, "crosses_total": 0.8263, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 14.5423, "possession_lost": 3.6454, "dispossessed": 0.9315, "duels_lost": 2.5593, "aerial_won": 0.5734, "aerial_lost": 0.6359, "interceptions": 0.0028, "tackles_won": 0.5195, "tackles": 0.9523, "clearances": 0.1547, "total_contest": 0.7104, "won_contest": 0.3003, "challenges_lost": 0.5662, "fouls": 0.6063, "fouls_drawn": 0.6419, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1071, "xgot": 0.1555, "ball_carries": 5.2451, "total_progression": 21.3822, "progressive_carries": 0.5103, "shots_off_target": 0.5441, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.326, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2326, "fifa_rank": 1244.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Nico Williams": { "player_id": 1085400, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 180, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0815, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9731, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 43, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0485, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0257, "finishing_factor": 1.0808, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.084, "expected_assists": 0.0708, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416322, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0972, "expected_assists": 1.0516, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4335, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416308, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3375, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, 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"count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2732 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0673 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0502 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0281 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0264 } ], "others": 0.1842, "total": 0.7008, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.519901 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.155282 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.101801 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.055655 }, { "name": 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0.04447 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.026421 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "margin": 0.02519 } ], "others_margin": 0.101633 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0123, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0903, "goals": 0.103, "goal_rate": 0.103, "shots_on_target": 0.2768, "total_shots": 1.1896, "expected_assists": 0.0645, "key_pass": 0.7094, "rating": 6.9731, "minutes": 30.07, "total_pass": 12.3901, "accurate_pass": 9.936, "duels_won": 3.4567, "total_long_balls": 0.2158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0533, "crosses_total": 2.1438, "crosses_accurate": 0.3515, "touches": 27.3144, "possession_lost": 9.8341, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 5.0086, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 4.3929, "won_contest": 1.5852, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.3449, "fouls_drawn": 0.5931, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2235, "tackles_won": 0.4977, 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"crosses_accurate": 0.3515, "touches": 27.3144, "possession_lost": 9.8341, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 5.0086, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 4.3929, "won_contest": 1.5852, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.3424, "fouls_drawn": 0.5888, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2239, "tackles_won": 0.4981, "tackles": 0.9428, "clearances": 0.1373, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2478, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 8.9453, "total_progression": 50.0263, "progressive_carries": 2.8834, "shots_off_target": 0.9128 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3341, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 30.1 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0774, "goals": 0.0877, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "shots_on_target": 0.2356, "total_shots": 1.0194, "expected_assists": 0.0553, "key_pass": 0.6082, "rating": 6.9731, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7826, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.78, "projection_minutes": 30.07, "minutes_scale": 0.8573, "appearance_probability": 0.62 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0774, "goals": 0.0877, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "shots_on_target": 0.2356, "total_shots": 1.0194, "expected_assists": 0.0553, "key_pass": 0.6082, "rating": 6.9731, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 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8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7826, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, 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"key_pass": 0.6082, "rating": 6.9731, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7826, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78, "projected_substitution_order": 1, 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0.0423, "key_pass": 0.6082, "rating": 6.9731, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7826, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78, 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"league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416301, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.046, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083731, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, 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"importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2652 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0335 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0273 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0161 } ], "others": -0.0442, "total": 0.2674, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.499976 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.085411 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.075461 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.060122 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.050356 } ], "others_margin": -0.153215 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6061553955078125, "model_output": 6.6062, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0533 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0644, "total": 6.6062, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.053291 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019851 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.017842 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010134 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.009541 } ], "others_margin": -0.064429 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9984, quality 0.457)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1104, "goals": 0.1191, "goal_rate": 0.1191, "shots_on_target": 0.3615, "total_shots": 0.8203, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "key_pass": 0.2669, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 24.56, "total_pass": 4.9399, "accurate_pass": 3.8453, "duels_won": 1.7139, "total_long_balls": 0.5333, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3677, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7085, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6139, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.423, "possession_lost": 2.6348, "dispossessed": 0.2273, "duels_lost": 3.2433, "aerial_lost": 0.9395, "total_contest": 0.4802, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0531, "challenges_lost": 0.3881, "fouls": 1.2081, "fouls_drawn": 0.366, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1728, "tackles_won": 0.2814, 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"count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2732 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0673 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0502 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0281 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0264 } ], "others": 0.1842, "total": 0.7008, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.519901 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.155282 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.101801 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.055655 }, { "name": 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0.04447 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.026421 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "margin": 0.02519 } ], "others_margin": 0.101633 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0123, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0903, "goals": 0.103, "goal_rate": 0.103, "shots_on_target": 0.2768, "total_shots": 1.1896, "expected_assists": 0.0645, "key_pass": 0.7094, "rating": 6.9731, "minutes": 30.07, "total_pass": 12.3901, "accurate_pass": 9.936, "duels_won": 3.4567, "total_long_balls": 0.2158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0533, "crosses_total": 2.1438, "crosses_accurate": 0.3515, "touches": 27.3144, "possession_lost": 9.8341, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 5.0086, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 4.3929, "won_contest": 1.5852, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.3449, "fouls_drawn": 0.5931, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2235, "tackles_won": 0.4977, 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"crosses_accurate": 0.3515, "touches": 27.3144, "possession_lost": 9.8341, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 5.0086, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 4.3929, "won_contest": 1.5852, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.3424, "fouls_drawn": 0.5888, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2239, "tackles_won": 0.4981, "tackles": 0.9428, "clearances": 0.1373, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2478, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 8.9453, "total_progression": 50.0263, "progressive_carries": 2.8834, "shots_off_target": 0.9128 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3341, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 30.1 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0774, "goals": 0.0877, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "shots_on_target": 0.2356, "total_shots": 1.0194, "expected_assists": 0.0553, "key_pass": 0.6082, "rating": 6.9731, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7826, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.78, "projection_minutes": 30.07, "minutes_scale": 0.8573, "appearance_probability": 0.62 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0774, "goals": 0.0877, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "shots_on_target": 0.2356, "total_shots": 1.0194, "expected_assists": 0.0553, "key_pass": 0.6082, "rating": 6.9731, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7826, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.00 (squad xG sum 0.9498, xG scale 1.0529, xA scale 0.7645, team xA 0.80 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0815, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2356, "total_shots": 1.0194, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "key_pass": 0.6082, "rating": 6.9731, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7826, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0808, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.0, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9498, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0464, "team_expected_assists": 0.8, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0529, "xa_scale": 0.7645, "opponent_lambda": 1.339, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.62 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0553, "after": 0.0423 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0815, "goal_rate": 0.0877, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2356, "total_shots": 1.0194, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "key_pass": 0.6082, "rating": 6.9731, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7826, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78, "projected_substitution_order": 1, 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0.0423, "key_pass": 0.6082, "rating": 6.9731, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7826, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78, 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"name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.011141 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.007892 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.005768 } ], "others_margin": -0.015342 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0072, quality 0.725)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3467, "expected_assists": 0.0267, "assists": 0.0416, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "expected_goals": 0.0336, "goals": 0.044, "goal_rate": 0.044, "shots_on_target": 0.1362, "total_shots": 0.3811, "rating": 6.7192, "minutes": 24.64, "total_pass": 16.8222, "accurate_pass": 13.8629, "duels_won": 2.3087, "total_long_balls": 1.8709, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3911, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9187, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8546, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0083, "crosses_total": 0.1668, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3229, "possession_lost": 3.999, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2915, "aerial_won": 0.6051, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9726, "tackles_won": 0.7332, "tackles": 1.1603, "clearances": 0.3336, "total_contest": 0.1668, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 0.5938, "fouls_drawn": 0.5432, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 4.9919, "total_progression": 8.611, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2449 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.0072, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0052)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3467, "expected_assists": 0.0267, "assists": 0.0414, "assist_rate": 0.0414, "expected_goals": 0.0336, "goals": 0.0438, "goal_rate": 0.0438, "shots_on_target": 0.1355, "total_shots": 0.3791, "rating": 6.7192, "minutes": 24.64, "total_pass": 16.8222, "accurate_pass": 13.8629, "duels_won": 2.3087, "total_long_balls": 1.8709, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3911, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9187, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8546, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0083, "crosses_total": 0.1659, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3229, "possession_lost": 3.999, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2915, "aerial_won": 0.6051, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9714, "tackles_won": 0.7307, "tackles": 1.1603, "clearances": 0.3336, "total_contest": 0.1668, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 0.5933, "fouls_drawn": 0.5404, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 4.9919, "total_progression": 8.611, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2449 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0052, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2738, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.6 to 24.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3475, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "assists": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "expected_goals": 0.0337, "goals": 0.0439, "goal_rate": 0.0439, "shots_on_target": 0.1358, "total_shots": 0.3813, "rating": 6.7192, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.8632, "accurate_pass": 13.8967, "duels_won": 2.3143, "total_long_balls": 1.8755, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3945, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8737, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0229, "crosses_total": 0.1663, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3797, "possession_lost": 4.0087, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2971, "aerial_won": 0.6066, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9738, "tackles_won": 0.7325, "tackles": 1.1631, "clearances": 0.3344, "total_contest": 0.1672, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 0.5947, "fouls_drawn": 0.5417, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 5.0041, "total_progression": 8.632, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 24.7, "projection_minutes": 24.64, "minutes_scale": 1.0024, "appearance_probability": 0.523 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3475, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "assists": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "expected_goals": 0.0337, "goals": 0.0439, "goal_rate": 0.0439, "shots_on_target": 0.1358, "total_shots": 0.3813, "rating": 6.7192, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.8632, "accurate_pass": 13.8967, "duels_won": 2.3143, "total_long_balls": 1.8755, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3945, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8737, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0229, "crosses_total": 0.1663, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3797, "possession_lost": 4.0087, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2971, "aerial_won": 0.6066, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9738, "tackles_won": 0.7325, "tackles": 1.1631, "clearances": 0.3344, "total_contest": 0.1672, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 0.5947, "fouls_drawn": 0.5417, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 5.0041, "total_progression": 8.632, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.00 (squad xG sum 0.9498, xG scale 1.0529, xA scale 0.7645, team xA 0.80 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3475, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0355, "goal_rate": 0.0439, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1358, "total_shots": 0.3813, "rating": 6.7192, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.8632, "accurate_pass": 13.8967, "duels_won": 2.3143, "total_long_balls": 1.8755, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3945, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8737, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0229, "crosses_total": 0.1663, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3797, "possession_lost": 4.0087, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2971, "aerial_won": 0.6066, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9738, "tackles_won": 0.7325, "tackles": 1.1631, "clearances": 0.3344, "total_contest": 0.1672, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 0.5947, "fouls_drawn": 0.5417, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0028, "ball_carries": 5.0041, "total_progression": 8.632, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1219, "creation_factor": 1.1914 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.0, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9498, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0464, "team_expected_assists": 0.8, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0529, "xa_scale": 0.7645, "opponent_lambda": 1.339, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.523 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0268, "after": 0.0205 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3475, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0355, "goal_rate": 0.0439, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1358, "total_shots": 0.3813, "rating": 6.7192, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.8632, "accurate_pass": 13.8967, "duels_won": 2.3143, "total_long_balls": 1.8755, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3945, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8737, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0229, "crosses_total": 0.1663, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3797, "possession_lost": 4.0087, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2971, "aerial_won": 0.6066, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9738, "tackles_won": 0.7325, "tackles": 1.1631, "clearances": 0.3344, "total_contest": 0.1672, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 0.5947, "fouls_drawn": 0.5417, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0028, "ball_carries": 5.0041, "total_progression": 8.632, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1219, "creation_factor": 1.1914, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1561, "fifa_rank": 915.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3475, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0355, "goal_rate": 0.0439, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1358, "total_shots": 0.3813, "rating": 6.7192, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.8632, "accurate_pass": 13.8967, "duels_won": 2.3143, "total_long_balls": 1.8755, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3945, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8737, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0229, "crosses_total": 0.1663, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3797, "possession_lost": 4.0087, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2971, "aerial_won": 0.6066, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9738, "tackles_won": 0.7325, "tackles": 1.1631, "clearances": 0.3344, "total_contest": 0.1672, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 0.5947, "fouls_drawn": 0.5417, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0028, "ball_carries": 5.0041, "total_progression": 8.632, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0182, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1219, "creation_factor": 1.1914, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0182, "scorer_weight": 0.0208, "squad_weight_total": 1.0169, "weight_share": 0.0205, "finishing_factor": 1.1219, "appearance_weight": 0.523, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3475, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0355, "goal_rate": 0.0439, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1358, "total_shots": 0.3813, "rating": 6.7192, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.8632, "accurate_pass": 13.8967, "duels_won": 2.3143, "total_long_balls": 1.8755, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3945, "total_own_half_passes": 8.9404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8737, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0229, "crosses_total": 0.1663, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3797, "possession_lost": 4.0087, "dispossessed": 0.3336, "duels_lost": 2.2971, "aerial_won": 0.6066, "aerial_lost": 0.363, "interceptions": 0.9738, "tackles_won": 0.7325, "tackles": 1.1631, "clearances": 0.3344, "total_contest": 0.1672, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.8343, "fouls": 0.5947, "fouls_drawn": 0.5417, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0028, "ball_carries": 5.0041, "total_progression": 8.632, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0182, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0106, "finishing_factor": 1.1219, "creation_factor": 1.1914, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0106, "provider_weight": 0.0128, "squad_weight_total": 0.779, "weight_share": 0.0164, "creation_factor": 1.1914, "appearance_weight": 0.523, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Gorka Guruzeta": { "player_id": 605672, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 188, "market_value": 4600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1217, "goal_rate": 0.1236, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 2.7592, "dispossessed": 0.2273, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, 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"total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416308, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2164, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", 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"is_starting_11", "margin": -0.053291 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019851 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.017842 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010134 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.009541 } ], "others_margin": -0.064429 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9984, quality 0.457)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1104, "goals": 0.1191, "goal_rate": 0.1191, "shots_on_target": 0.3615, "total_shots": 0.8203, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "key_pass": 0.2669, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 24.56, "total_pass": 4.9399, "accurate_pass": 3.8453, "duels_won": 1.7139, "total_long_balls": 0.5333, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3677, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7085, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6139, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.423, "possession_lost": 2.6348, "dispossessed": 0.2273, "duels_lost": 3.2433, "aerial_lost": 0.9395, "total_contest": 0.4802, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0531, "challenges_lost": 0.3881, "fouls": 1.2081, "fouls_drawn": 0.366, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1728, "tackles_won": 0.2814, "tackles": 0.5098, "clearances": 0.2768, "blocks": 0.1197, "big_chances_created": 0.1656, "big_chances_missed": 0.1488, "xgot": 0.0993, "offsides": 0.1752, "ball_carries": 1.2575, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4588 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4600000, "quality_factor": 0.4572, "boost_factor": 0.9984, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0089)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1104, "goals": 0.118, "goal_rate": 0.118, "shots_on_target": 0.3583, "total_shots": 0.8157, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "key_pass": 0.2669, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 24.56, "total_pass": 4.9399, "accurate_pass": 3.8453, "duels_won": 1.7139, "total_long_balls": 0.5333, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3677, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7085, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6139, "crosses_total": 0.0013, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.423, "possession_lost": 2.6348, "dispossessed": 0.2273, "duels_lost": 3.2433, "aerial_lost": 0.9395, "total_contest": 0.4802, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0531, "challenges_lost": 0.3881, "fouls": 1.2028, "fouls_drawn": 0.3668, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1726, "tackles_won": 0.2802, "tackles": 0.5098, "clearances": 0.2768, "blocks": 0.1197, "big_chances_created": 0.1656, "big_chances_missed": 0.1488, "xgot": 0.0993, "offsides": 0.1736, "ball_carries": 1.2575, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4588 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0089, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2729, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.2081, "after": 1.2028 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.6 to 25.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.46)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1156, "goals": 0.1236, "goal_rate": 0.1236, "shots_on_target": 0.3752, "total_shots": 0.8557, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "key_pass": 0.2795, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 25.72, "total_pass": 5.1732, "accurate_pass": 4.0269, "duels_won": 1.7948, "total_long_balls": 0.5585, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3851, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8837, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7374, "crosses_total": 0.0014, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.9153, "possession_lost": 2.7592, "dispossessed": 0.2273, "duels_lost": 3.3965, "aerial_lost": 0.9395, "total_contest": 0.5029, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0556, "challenges_lost": 0.3881, "fouls": 1.2596, "fouls_drawn": 0.3841, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1808, "tackles_won": 0.2934, "tackles": 0.5339, "clearances": 0.2899, "blocks": 0.1254, "big_chances_created": 0.1734, "big_chances_missed": 0.1558, "xgot": 0.104, "offsides": 0.1736, "ball_carries": 1.3169, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4805, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.464, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.72 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.72, "projection_minutes": 24.56, "minutes_scale": 1.0472, "appearance_probability": 0.464 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1156, "goals": 0.1236, "goal_rate": 0.1236, "shots_on_target": 0.3752, "total_shots": 0.8557, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "key_pass": 0.2795, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 25.72, "total_pass": 5.1732, "accurate_pass": 4.0269, "duels_won": 1.7948, "total_long_balls": 0.5585, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3851, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8837, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7374, "crosses_total": 0.0014, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.9153, "possession_lost": 2.7592, "dispossessed": 0.2273, "duels_lost": 3.3965, "aerial_lost": 0.9395, "total_contest": 0.5029, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0556, "challenges_lost": 0.3881, "fouls": 1.2596, "fouls_drawn": 0.3841, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1808, "tackles_won": 0.2934, "tackles": 0.5339, "clearances": 0.2899, "blocks": 0.1254, "big_chances_created": 0.1734, "big_chances_missed": 0.1558, "xgot": 0.104, "offsides": 0.1736, "ball_carries": 1.3169, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4805, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.464, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.72 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.00 (squad xG sum 0.9498, xG scale 1.0529, xA scale 0.7645, team xA 0.80 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1217, "goal_rate": 0.1236, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3752, "total_shots": 0.8557, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "key_pass": 0.2795, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 25.72, "total_pass": 5.1732, "accurate_pass": 4.0269, "duels_won": 1.7948, "total_long_balls": 0.5585, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3851, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8837, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7374, "crosses_total": 0.0014, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.9153, "possession_lost": 2.7592, "dispossessed": 0.2273, "duels_lost": 3.3965, "aerial_lost": 0.9395, "total_contest": 0.5029, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0556, "challenges_lost": 0.3881, "fouls": 1.2596, "fouls_drawn": 0.3841, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1808, "tackles_won": 0.2934, "tackles": 0.5339, "clearances": 0.2899, "blocks": 0.1254, "big_chances_created": 0.1734, "big_chances_missed": 0.1558, "xgot": 0.1095, "offsides": 0.1736, "ball_carries": 1.3169, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4805, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.464, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.72, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0483, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.0, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9498, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0464, "team_expected_assists": 0.8, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0529, "xa_scale": 0.7645, "opponent_lambda": 1.339, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.464 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1156, "after": 0.1217 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1217, "goal_rate": 0.1236, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3752, "total_shots": 0.8557, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "key_pass": 0.2795, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 25.72, "total_pass": 5.1732, "accurate_pass": 4.0269, "duels_won": 1.7948, "total_long_balls": 0.5585, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3851, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8837, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7374, "crosses_total": 0.0014, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.9153, "possession_lost": 2.7592, "dispossessed": 0.2273, "duels_lost": 3.3965, "aerial_lost": 0.9395, "total_contest": 0.5029, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0556, "challenges_lost": 0.3881, "fouls": 1.2596, "fouls_drawn": 0.3841, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1808, "tackles_won": 0.2934, "tackles": 0.5339, "clearances": 0.2899, "blocks": 0.1254, "big_chances_created": 0.1734, "big_chances_missed": 0.1558, "xgot": 0.1095, "offsides": 0.1736, "ball_carries": 1.3169, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4805, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.464, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.72, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0483, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2383, "fifa_rank": 1245.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1217, "goal_rate": 0.1236, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3752, "total_shots": 0.8557, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "key_pass": 0.2795, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 25.72, "total_pass": 5.1732, "accurate_pass": 4.0269, "duels_won": 1.7948, "total_long_balls": 0.5585, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3851, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8837, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7374, "crosses_total": 0.0014, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.9153, "possession_lost": 2.7592, "dispossessed": 0.2273, "duels_lost": 3.3965, "aerial_lost": 0.9395, "total_contest": 0.5029, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0556, "challenges_lost": 0.3881, "fouls": 1.2596, "fouls_drawn": 0.3841, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1808, "tackles_won": 0.2934, "tackles": 0.5339, "clearances": 0.2899, "blocks": 0.1254, "big_chances_created": 0.1734, "big_chances_missed": 0.1558, "xgot": 0.1095, "offsides": 0.1736, "ball_carries": 1.3169, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4805, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.464, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.72, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0532, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0483, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0532, "scorer_weight": 0.0592, "squad_weight_total": 1.0169, "weight_share": 0.0582, "finishing_factor": 1.0483, "appearance_weight": 0.464, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1217, "goal_rate": 0.1236, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3752, "total_shots": 0.8557, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "key_pass": 0.2795, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 25.72, "total_pass": 5.1732, "accurate_pass": 4.0269, "duels_won": 1.7948, "total_long_balls": 0.5585, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3851, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8837, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7374, "crosses_total": 0.0014, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.9153, "possession_lost": 2.7592, "dispossessed": 0.2273, "duels_lost": 3.3965, "aerial_lost": 0.9395, "total_contest": 0.5029, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0556, "challenges_lost": 0.3881, "fouls": 1.2596, "fouls_drawn": 0.3841, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1808, "tackles_won": 0.2934, "tackles": 0.5339, "clearances": 0.2899, "blocks": 0.1254, "big_chances_created": 0.1734, "big_chances_missed": 0.1558, "xgot": 0.1095, "offsides": 0.1736, "ball_carries": 1.3169, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4805, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.464, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.72, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.263, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0532, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0072, "finishing_factor": 1.0483, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0072, "provider_weight": 0.0058, "squad_weight_total": 0.779, "weight_share": 0.0074, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.464, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0, "expected_assists": 0.8, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 452, "interceptions": 11, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.9, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jorge de Frutos", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 10900000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.533, "defenders": [ "Jesús Areso" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.468, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.456, "xg_contribution": 0.1284, "xg_multiplier": 0.965, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jesús Areso", "role": "RB", "market_value": 5500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.544 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jorge de Frutos (LW) is evenly matched against Jesús Areso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.128 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Sergio Camello", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3300000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.441, "defenders": [ "Aymeric Laporte", "Yeray Álvarez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.47, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3184, "xg_multiplier": 0.9109, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aymeric Laporte", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Yeray Álvarez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Camello (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Aymeric Laporte and Yeray Álvarez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.318 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1600000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.456, "xg_contribution": 0.0493, "xg_multiplier": 1.0529, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.544 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss (CDM) is evenly matched against Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.049 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Álvaro García", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 168, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.426, "xg_contribution": 0.1902, "xg_multiplier": 0.9647, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.574 } ], "duel_analysis": "Álvaro García (CM) is evenly matched against Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.190 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Unai López", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.43, "xg_contribution": 0.0589, "xg_multiplier": 0.9706, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.57 } ], "duel_analysis": "Unai López (CM) is evenly matched against Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Isi Palazón", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.432, "xg_contribution": 0.1464, "xg_multiplier": 0.9733, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.568 } ], "duel_analysis": "Isi Palazón (CM) is evenly matched against Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Robert Navarro", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 6500000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.481, "defenders": [ "Adrià Pedrosa" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.503, "xg_contribution": 0.1722, "xg_multiplier": 1.0332, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "role": "RB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.497 } ], "duel_analysis": "Robert Navarro (LW) is evenly matched against Adrià Pedrosa in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.172 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Álex Berenguer", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 4099999, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.451, "defenders": [ "Andrei Rațiu" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.65, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.323, "xg_contribution": 0.0691, "xg_multiplier": 0.7698, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrei Rațiu", "role": "LB", "market_value": 22000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.677 } ], "duel_analysis": "Álex Berenguer (RW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Andrei Rațiu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €22M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.77 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.069 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Iñaki Williams", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Pathé Ismaël Ciss" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.498, "xg_contribution": 0.2885, "xg_multiplier": 1.0556, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.502 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iñaki Williams (CAM) is evenly matched against Pathé Ismaël Ciss in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.289 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1800000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Álvaro García" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.424, "xg_contribution": 0.0444, "xg_multiplier": 1.0353, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Álvaro García", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.576 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta (CDM) is evenly matched against Álvaro García in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Álvaro García" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.42, "xg_contribution": 0.0255, "xg_multiplier": 1.0294, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Álvaro García", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.58 } ], "duel_analysis": "Beñat Gerenabarrena (CDM) is evenly matched against Álvaro García in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.026 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.462, "away_midfield_power": 0.544, "home_creative_power": 0.416, "away_creative_power": 0.516, "home_defensive_power": 0.416, "away_defensive_power": 0.472, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.459, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 6, "home_midfield_players": [ "Álvaro García", "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "Isi Palazón", "Unai López" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "Robert Navarro", "Peio Canales", "Iñaki Williams", "Álex Berenguer" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.6, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Isi Palazón vs Peio Canales", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.987, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.016 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.339, "away_lambda": 1.0, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Jorge de Frutos": { "opponents": [ "Jesús Areso" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Sergio Camello": { "opponents": [ "Aymeric Laporte", "Yeray Álvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pathé Ismaël Ciss": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "Iñaki Williams", "Robert Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Álvaro García": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "Álex Berenguer" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Unai López": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "Beñat Gerenabarrena" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Isi Palazón": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "Peio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Adrià Pedrosa": { "opponents": [ "Robert Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Andrei Rațiu": { "opponents": [ "Álex Berenguer" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Emil Audero": { "opponents": [ "Peio Canales", "Iñaki Williams" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Mujaid Sadick": { "opponents": [ "Peio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Florian Lejeune": { "opponents": [ "Iñaki Williams" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jesús Areso": { "opponents": [ "Jorge de Frutos" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aymeric Laporte": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Camello" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Yeray Álvarez": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Camello" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta": { "opponents": [ "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "Álvaro García", "Unai López", "Isi Palazón" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Robert Navarro": { "opponents": [ "Adrià Pedrosa", "Pathé Ismaël Ciss" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Álex Berenguer": { "opponents": [ "Andrei Rațiu", "Álvaro García" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Iñaki Williams": { "opponents": [ "Pathé Ismaël Ciss" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Beñat Gerenabarrena": { "opponents": [ "Álvaro García", "Unai López" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Peio Canales": { "opponents": [ "Isi Palazón" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Unai Simón": { "opponents": [ "Jorge de Frutos", "Sergio Camello" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Yuri Berchiche": { "opponents": [ "Jorge de Frutos" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Isi Palazón vs Peio Canales will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.89, Away: 0.60. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.041, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.046, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0022, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9864, "home_midfield_factor": 0.987, "away_midfield_factor": 1.016, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4707, "away_avg_quality": 0.4662, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0045, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.131, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.1285, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.2054, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.009, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8916, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0062 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.987, "result": 0.9931 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.03, "result": 1.0229 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.1763 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9769, "result": 1.1492 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9273, "result": 1.0656 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0022, "result": 1.068 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.041, "result": 1.109 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.109, "result": 1.109, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.009, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.109, "result": 1.109 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.109 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1757, "result": 1.2847 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.9877, "result": 1.217 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.217, "result": 1.217, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1, "result": 1.339 }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.339 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.339 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.339, "result": 1.339, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.339 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.5997, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.7873 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.016, "result": 0.7999 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.99, "result": 0.7919 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7919 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0605, "result": 0.8398 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 0.8487 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9864, "result": 0.8372 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.046, "result": 0.8832 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.8832, "result": 0.8832, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.009, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 0.8832, "result": 0.8832 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8832 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1617, "result": 1.0447 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.9852, "result": 1.0311 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.0311, "result": 1.031, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "result": 1.0 }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.0 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.0 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.0, "result": 1.0, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.0 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1757, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1617, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_squad": "Athletic Club", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.988, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.985, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.339, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.0, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.217, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.0311, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.339, "final_away_lambda": 1.0 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 12, "opponent_position": 10, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9769, "attack_index": 1.068, "defense_concede_index": 0.886, "form_multiplier": 0.994, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.63, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.35, "team_ppg": 1.25, "opponent_ppg": 1.36 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 10, "opponent_position": 12, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0605, "attack_index": 0.922, "defense_concede_index": 1.251, "form_multiplier": 1.006, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.4, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.9, "team_ppg": 1.36, "opponent_ppg": 1.25 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.217, Away 1.031). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.339, Away 1.000 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 6, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_squad": "Athletic Club", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.988, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.985, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.339, "away_lambda": 1.0, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.217, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.031 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-09T13:31:55Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }