{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Alavés", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261010", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "5-3-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-2", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0888, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Atlético Madrid", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1606, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0888 }, { "score": "1-3", "probability": 0.0803 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0763 }, { "score": "0-3", "probability": 0.069 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0658 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0211, "0-1": 0.056, "0-2": 0.0763, "0-3": 0.069, "0-4": 0.0468, "0-5": 0.0254, "0-6": 0.0115, "0-7": 0.0045, "0-8": 0.0015, "1-0": 0.0238, "1-1": 0.0658, "1-2": 0.0888, "1-3": 0.0803, "1-4": 0.0545, "1-5": 0.0295, "1-6": 0.0134, "1-7": 0.0052, "1-8": 0.0018, "1-9": 0.0005, "2-0": 0.014, "2-1": 0.0381, "2-2": 0.0516, "2-3": 0.0467, "2-4": 0.0317, "2-5": 0.0172, "2-6": 0.0078, "2-7": 0.003, "2-8": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0054, "3-1": 0.0148, "3-2": 0.02, "3-3": 0.0181, "3-4": 0.0123, "3-5": 0.0067, "3-6": 0.003, "3-7": 0.0012, "4-0": 0.0016, "4-1": 0.0043, "4-2": 0.0058, "4-3": 0.0053, "4-4": 0.0036, "4-5": 0.0019, "4-6": 0.0009, "5-1": 0.001, "5-2": 0.0014, "5-3": 0.0012, "5-4": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.1391, "draw": 0.1606, "away_win": 0.7003 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.743, "under_2_5_goals": 0.257, "btts_yes": 0.6421, "btts_no": 0.3579, "home_clean_sheet": 0.0664, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3125 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.77, "MCR": 6.86, "ATR": 6.8, "GK": 7.1 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.93, "MCR": 6.94, "ATR": 7.11, "GK": 7.01 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Alavés vs Atlético Madrid. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Lambdas derived from 8 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Toni Martínez, Jonathan David, Ademola Lookman", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Antonio Blanco vs Giuliano Simeone). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.81, Away: 1.57. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.79, "home_lambda": 1.163, "away_lambda": 2.713, "h2h": { "available": false, "meetings": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_wins": 0, "draws": 0, "home_multiplier": 1.0, "away_multiplier": 1.0 }, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.1391, "draw": 0.1606, "away_win": 0.7003 }, "favorite": "Atlético Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7003, "fair_spread": -1.55, "fair_total": 3.876, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Alavés", "estimate": 1.163, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Atlético Madrid", "estimate": 2.713, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.743, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6421, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Alavés", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0664, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Atlético Madrid", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3125, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Toni Martínez (Alavés)", "estimate": 0.3074, "probability": 0.2646, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Jonathan David (Atlético Madrid)", "estimate": 0.7492, "probability": 0.5273, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ángel Pérez (Alavés)", "estimate": 0.1966, "probability": 0.1785, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alex Baena (Atlético Madrid)", "estimate": 0.3391, "probability": 0.2876, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.876, "expected_total_shots": 29, "expected_total_passes": 840, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.8, "possession_home_pct": 47.4, "possession_away_pct": 52.6, "notes": "Atlético Madrid projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Atlético Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7003, "script": "Atlético Madrid is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -1.55 goals and fair total 3.88.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Alavés must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Atlético Madrid lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Atlético Madrid chance creation leans on Jonathan David against Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Atlético Madrid projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Alavés: starters carry the main goal usage through Toni Martínez; bench watchlist: Carlos Vicente, Miguel Rodríguez, Carles Aleñá.", "Atlético Madrid: starters carry the main goal usage through Jonathan David, Ademola Lookman; bench watchlist: Julián Alvarez, Pablo Barrios, Kang-in Lee.", "Assist usage should flow through Ángel Pérez, Alex Baena; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Atlético Madrid tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.94 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Alavés is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Atlético Madrid.", "Alavés wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Alavés": { "formation": "5-3-2", "players": { "Antonio Sivera": { "player_id": 369004, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 184, "market_value": 5600000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0547, "rating": 7.1018, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 15, "total_long_balls": 22, "accurate_long_balls": 10, "touches": 38, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.7732, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 12.2301, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.5571, "shots_faced": 25.8, "expected_saves": 6.32, "high_pressure_saves": 2.17, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David, Ademola Lookman", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 15, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 0.9777 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.1845 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0103, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.1349 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1219 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 0.663 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0097 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0882 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2019, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -0.2241 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 194, "combined_rank_score": 156.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 157.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 156.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1018, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Antonio Sivera", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Renzo Malanca", "ranking": 189 }, { "player_name": "Andy Robertson", "ranking": 190 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás de la Cruz", "ranking": 191 }, { "player_name": "Osmar Barba", "ranking": 192 }, { "player_name": "Yarden Shua", "ranking": 193 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Igor Lichnovsky", "ranking": 195 }, { "player_name": "Luis Rojas", "ranking": 196 }, { "player_name": "Armandas Kučys", "ranking": 197 }, { "player_name": "Javier Hernández", "ranking": 198 }, { "player_name": "Daler Tukhsanov", "ranking": 199 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 45, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 45, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9989, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 45 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Alavés, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.941, "goals_prevented": 0.0548, "rating": 7.1018, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4061, "accurate_pass": 15.4681, "total_long_balls": 21.6937, "accurate_long_balls": 9.8679, "touches": 38.3846, "clearances": 1.373, "ball_recovery": 9.1379, "high_claims": 1.1764, "punches": 0.7741, "aerial_won": 0.2179, "sweeper_actions": 0.9962, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9962, "saves_inside_box": 1.9495, "possession_lost": 12.2436, "duels_won": 0.3576, "duels_lost": 0.0475, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0008, "fouls_drawn": 0.0081, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0476, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.741 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:04:18.353158+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 199, "rows": 6796 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 8.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1084, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.8265, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8045, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.5093, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.2729, "save_contribution": 3.2412, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.9962 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.941023588180542, "model_output": 2.941, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0362 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9286, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0537 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0179 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0162 } ], "others": 0.0298, "total": 2.941, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.074537, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.018511 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.007838 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.007055 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.006187 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.005584 } ], "others_margin": 0.010177 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.054765887558460236, "model_output": 0.0548, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0385 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0166, "items": [ { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0255 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0175 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0149 } ], "others": 0.055, "total": 0.0548, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.025903 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.025471 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.017458 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.016409 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.014901 } ], "others_margin": 0.054998 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.1017889976501465, "model_output": 7.1018, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0411 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0276 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": 0.0236 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0137 } ], "others": 0.0185, "total": 7.1018, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.009122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.041079 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.027558 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.023559 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.0234 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.013749 } ], "others_margin": 0.018436 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 45, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9989, quality 0.470)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9378, "goals_prevented": 0.0547, "rating": 7.1018, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.376, "accurate_pass": 15.4511, "total_long_balls": 21.6698, "accurate_long_balls": 9.857, "touches": 38.3424, "clearances": 1.3715, "ball_recovery": 9.1278, "high_claims": 1.1751, "punches": 0.7732, "aerial_won": 0.2177, "sweeper_actions": 0.9951, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9951, "saves_inside_box": 1.9474, "possession_lost": 12.2301, "duels_won": 0.3572, "duels_lost": 0.0474, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0008, "fouls_drawn": 0.0081, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7336 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5600000, "quality_factor": 0.4695, "boost_factor": 0.9989, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0130)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9429, "goals_prevented": 0.0547, "rating": 7.1018, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.376, "accurate_pass": 15.4511, "total_long_balls": 21.6698, "accurate_long_balls": 9.857, "touches": 38.3424, "clearances": 1.3715, "ball_recovery": 9.1278, "high_claims": 1.1751, "punches": 0.7732, "aerial_won": 0.2177, "sweeper_actions": 0.9951, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9951, "saves_inside_box": 1.9474, "possession_lost": 12.2301, "duels_won": 0.3572, "duels_lost": 0.0474, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0008, "fouls_drawn": 0.008, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7336 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.013, "history_matches": 45, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9378, "after": 2.9429 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9429, "goals_prevented": 0.0547, "rating": 7.1018, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.376, "accurate_pass": 15.4511, "total_long_balls": 21.6698, "accurate_long_balls": 9.857, "touches": 38.3424, "clearances": 1.3715, "ball_recovery": 9.1278, "high_claims": 1.1751, "punches": 0.7732, "aerial_won": 0.2177, "sweeper_actions": 0.9951, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9951, "saves_inside_box": 1.9474, "possession_lost": 12.2301, "duels_won": 0.3572, "duels_lost": 0.0474, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0008, "fouls_drawn": 0.008, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7336 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9429, "goals_prevented": 0.0547, "rating": 7.1018, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.376, "accurate_pass": 15.4511, "total_long_balls": 21.6698, "accurate_long_balls": 9.857, "touches": 38.3424, "clearances": 1.3715, "ball_recovery": 9.1278, "high_claims": 1.1751, "punches": 0.7732, "aerial_won": 0.2177, "sweeper_actions": 0.9951, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9951, "saves_inside_box": 1.9474, "possession_lost": 12.2301, "duels_won": 0.3572, "duels_lost": 0.0474, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0008, "fouls_drawn": 0.008, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7336, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.5571, "shots_faced": 24.3, "expected_saves": 5.95, "high_pressure_saves": 2.05, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David, Ademola Lookman", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David, Ademola Lookman", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 2.5571 } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.16 (squad xG sum 0.9447, xG scale 1.2311, xA scale 1.2311, team xA 0.90 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9429, "goals_prevented": 0.0547, "rating": 7.1018, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.376, "accurate_pass": 15.4511, "total_long_balls": 21.6698, "accurate_long_balls": 9.857, "touches": 38.3424, "clearances": 1.3715, "ball_recovery": 9.1278, "high_claims": 1.1751, "punches": 0.7732, "aerial_won": 0.2177, "sweeper_actions": 0.9951, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9951, "saves_inside_box": 1.9474, "possession_lost": 12.2301, "duels_won": 0.3572, "duels_lost": 0.0474, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0008, "fouls_drawn": 0.008, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7336, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.5571, "shots_faced": 25.8, "expected_saves": 6.32, "high_pressure_saves": 2.17, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David, Ademola Lookman", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.163, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9447, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7333, "team_expected_assists": 0.9028, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7763, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2311, "xa_scale": 1.2311, "opponent_lambda": 2.713, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 24.3, "after": 25.8 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 5.95, "after": 6.32 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 2.05, "after": 2.17 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9429, "goals_prevented": 0.0547, "rating": 7.1018, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.376, "accurate_pass": 15.4511, "total_long_balls": 21.6698, "accurate_long_balls": 9.857, "touches": 38.3424, "clearances": 1.3715, "ball_recovery": 9.1278, "high_claims": 1.1751, "punches": 0.7732, "aerial_won": 0.2177, "sweeper_actions": 0.9951, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9951, "saves_inside_box": 1.9474, "possession_lost": 12.2301, "duels_won": 0.3572, "duels_lost": 0.0474, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0008, "fouls_drawn": 0.008, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7336, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.5571, "shots_faced": 25.8, "expected_saves": 6.32, "high_pressure_saves": 2.17, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David, Ademola Lookman", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 194, "fifa_rank": 156.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9429, "goals_prevented": 0.0547, "rating": 7.1018, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.376, "accurate_pass": 15.4511, "total_long_balls": 21.6698, "accurate_long_balls": 9.857, "touches": 38.3424, "clearances": 1.3715, "ball_recovery": 9.1278, "high_claims": 1.1751, "punches": 0.7732, "aerial_won": 0.2177, "sweeper_actions": 0.9951, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9951, "saves_inside_box": 1.9474, "possession_lost": 12.2301, "duels_won": 0.3572, "duels_lost": 0.0474, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0008, "fouls_drawn": 0.008, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7336, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.5571, "shots_faced": 25.8, "expected_saves": 6.32, "high_pressure_saves": 2.17, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David, Ademola Lookman", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.2116, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.329, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.329, "runner_up": "Mariano Díaz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2236 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9429, "goals_prevented": 0.0547, "rating": 7.1018, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.376, "accurate_pass": 15.4511, "total_long_balls": 21.6698, "accurate_long_balls": 9.857, "touches": 38.3424, "clearances": 1.3715, "ball_recovery": 9.1278, "high_claims": 1.1751, "punches": 0.7732, "aerial_won": 0.2177, "sweeper_actions": 0.9951, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9951, "saves_inside_box": 1.9474, "possession_lost": 12.2301, "duels_won": 0.3572, "duels_lost": 0.0474, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0008, "fouls_drawn": 0.008, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7336, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.5571, "shots_faced": 25.8, "expected_saves": 6.32, "high_pressure_saves": 2.17, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David, Ademola Lookman", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.9183, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.2296, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2296, "runner_up": "Denis Suárez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1582, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Toni Martínez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ángel Pérez": { "player_id": 1513222, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 183, "market_value": 2800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1966, "assist_rate": 0.1949, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.137, "goal_rate": 0.1222, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 14.0234, "dispossessed": 0.6516, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1278, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 61, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.314, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.128, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1785, "finishing_factor": 1.0676, "creation_factor": 1.1679, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1035, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0565, "expected_assists": 0.1624, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4533, "expected_assists": 0.196, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.1634, "expected_assists": 0.4685, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1179, "expected_assists": 0.3338, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0598, "expected_assists": 0.3395, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0715, "expected_assists": 0.0587, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0211, "expected_assists": 0.1541, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.092, "expected_assists": 0.006, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.053, "expected_assists": 0.081, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4209, "combined_rank_score": 2239.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 236.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 4243.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8662, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ángel Pérez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Toti", "ranking": 4204 }, { "player_name": "Tristan Crama", "ranking": 4205 }, { "player_name": "Léo Scienza", "ranking": 4206 }, { "player_name": "Iván Villar", "ranking": 4207 }, { "player_name": "Arthur Avom Ebong", "ranking": 4208 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Salomón Rondón", "ranking": 4210 }, { "player_name": "Adrián Niño", "ranking": 4211 }, { "player_name": "Anthony Lopes", "ranking": 4212 }, { "player_name": "Thorgan Hazard", "ranking": 4213 }, { "player_name": "Kenny Lala", "ranking": 4214 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.774, "history_matches": 23, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 23, "data_confidence": 0.774, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9964, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 213.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.4166666666666667, "shots_per90": 1.69, "shots_on_target_pct": 25.0, "prior_reliability": 0.16 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 23 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Alavés, rel: 0.16, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.4166666666666667)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3787, "expected_assists": 0.1603, "assists": 0.1919, "assist_rate": 0.1919, "expected_goals": 0.1396, "goals": 0.1562, "goal_rate": 0.1562, "shots_on_target": 0.5578, "total_shots": 1.3756, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 84.09, "total_pass": 22.8897, "accurate_pass": 17.1462, "duels_won": 3.782, "total_long_balls": 3.3773, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5287, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5104, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2872, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3793, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.859, "crosses_total": 4.4605, "crosses_accurate": 1.3308, "touches": 44.6131, "possession_lost": 14.0741, "dispossessed": 0.654, "duels_lost": 4.1266, "aerial_won": 0.3113, "aerial_lost": 0.1468, "interceptions": 0.8142, "tackles_won": 0.551, "tackles": 0.8948, "clearances": 0.9856, "total_contest": 3.561, "won_contest": 1.6919, "challenges_lost": 0.7196, "fouls": 0.7468, "fouls_drawn": 0.8839, "blocks": 0.0098, "big_chances_created": 0.7213, "big_chances_missed": 0.1477, "xgot": 0.1303, "ball_carries": 11.2137, "total_progression": 61.0294, "progressive_carries": 2.6772, "shots_off_target": 0.8178 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1537, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1306, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.111, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0944, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0802, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0682, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.058, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0493, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0419, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0356, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.1659, "creative_index": 0.7127, "expectedGoals": 0.1079, "expectedAssists": 0.1975, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.4672 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.3787484169006348, "model_output": 1.3787, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1167 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1281 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0995 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0991 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0587 } ], "others": 0.1078, "total": 1.3787, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123698 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.120229 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.084338 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.077456 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.045117 } ], "others_margin": 0.081388 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.16029277443885803, "model_output": 0.1603, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0124 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0059 } ], "others": 0.0206, "total": 0.1603, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.140674 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.130296 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.104436 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.068936 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.042948 } ], "others_margin": 0.138004 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.19185703992843628, "model_output": 0.1919, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0103 } ], "others": 0.0467, "total": 0.1919, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.169505 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.112073 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.096177 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.081522 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.073622 } ], "others_margin": 0.278504 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.13960711658000946, "model_output": 0.1396, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0037 } ], "others": 0.0082, "total": 0.1396, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.177462 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11655 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.097805 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.032517 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.02762 } ], "others_margin": 0.059314 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.15616770088672638, "model_output": 0.1562, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0124 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0101 } ], "others": 0.0036, "total": 0.1562, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.119545 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.097068 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.081789 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.08057 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.068234 } ], "others_margin": 0.022382 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5578023791313171, "model_output": 0.5578, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0437 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0462 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0404 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0432 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0156 } ], "others": 0.0447, "total": 0.5578, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.126506 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118375 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.093214 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.090864 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.030817 } ], "others_margin": 0.083513 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.3755550384521484, "model_output": 1.3756, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.168 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0949 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0381 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0256 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.022 } ], "others": 0.1127, "total": 1.3756, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.167956 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.09492 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.038123 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.025556 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.021978 } ], "others_margin": 0.112804 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.866170883178711, "model_output": 6.8662, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0159 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0072, "total": 6.8662, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.026718 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018854 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.015917 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.01555 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014749 } ], "others_margin": -0.007283 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9964, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3738, "expected_assists": 0.1597, "assists": 0.1912, "assist_rate": 0.1912, "expected_goals": 0.1391, "goals": 0.1556, "goal_rate": 0.1556, "shots_on_target": 0.5558, "total_shots": 1.3707, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 84.09, "total_pass": 22.8073, "accurate_pass": 17.0845, "duels_won": 3.7684, "total_long_balls": 3.3651, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5232, "total_own_half_passes": 6.487, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2682, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3203, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8163, "crosses_total": 4.4444, "crosses_accurate": 1.326, "touches": 44.4525, "possession_lost": 14.0234, "dispossessed": 0.6516, "duels_lost": 4.1117, "aerial_won": 0.3102, "aerial_lost": 0.1463, "interceptions": 0.8113, "tackles_won": 0.549, "tackles": 0.8916, "clearances": 0.9821, "total_contest": 3.5482, "won_contest": 1.6858, "challenges_lost": 0.717, "fouls": 0.7441, "fouls_drawn": 0.8807, "blocks": 0.0098, "big_chances_created": 0.7187, "big_chances_missed": 0.1472, "xgot": 0.1298, "ball_carries": 11.1733, "total_progression": 60.8097, "progressive_carries": 2.6676, "shots_off_target": 0.8149 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9964, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0186)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3738, "expected_assists": 0.1597, "assists": 0.1949, "assist_rate": 0.1949, "expected_goals": 0.1391, "goals": 0.1527, "goal_rate": 0.1527, "shots_on_target": 0.5528, "total_shots": 1.3746, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 84.09, "total_pass": 22.8073, "accurate_pass": 17.0845, "duels_won": 3.7684, "total_long_balls": 3.3651, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5232, "total_own_half_passes": 6.487, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2682, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3203, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8163, "crosses_total": 4.4197, "crosses_accurate": 1.326, "touches": 44.4525, "possession_lost": 14.0234, "dispossessed": 0.6516, "duels_lost": 4.1117, "aerial_won": 0.3102, "aerial_lost": 0.1463, "interceptions": 0.8179, "tackles_won": 0.546, "tackles": 0.8916, "clearances": 0.9821, "total_contest": 3.5482, "won_contest": 1.6858, "challenges_lost": 0.717, "fouls": 0.7447, "fouls_drawn": 0.8716, "blocks": 0.0098, "big_chances_created": 0.7187, "big_chances_missed": 0.1472, "xgot": 0.1298, "ball_carries": 11.1733, "total_progression": 60.8097, "progressive_carries": 2.6676, "shots_off_target": 0.8149 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0186, "history_matches": 23, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9343, "prior_reliability": 0.16, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 4.4444, "after": 4.4197 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.8807, "after": 0.8716 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.8113, "after": 0.8179 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3738, "expected_assists": 0.1597, "assists": 0.1949, "assist_rate": 0.1949, "expected_goals": 0.1391, "goals": 0.1527, "goal_rate": 0.1527, "shots_on_target": 0.5528, "total_shots": 1.3746, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 84.09, "total_pass": 22.8073, "accurate_pass": 17.0845, "duels_won": 3.7684, "total_long_balls": 3.3651, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5232, "total_own_half_passes": 6.487, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2682, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3203, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8163, "crosses_total": 4.4197, "crosses_accurate": 1.326, "touches": 44.4525, "possession_lost": 14.0234, "dispossessed": 0.6516, "duels_lost": 4.1117, "aerial_won": 0.3102, "aerial_lost": 0.1463, "interceptions": 0.8179, "tackles_won": 0.546, "tackles": 0.8916, "clearances": 0.9821, "total_contest": 3.5482, "won_contest": 1.6858, "challenges_lost": 0.717, "fouls": 0.7447, "fouls_drawn": 0.8716, "blocks": 0.0098, "big_chances_created": 0.7187, "big_chances_missed": 0.1472, "xgot": 0.1298, "ball_carries": 11.1733, "total_progression": 60.8097, "progressive_carries": 2.6676, "shots_off_target": 0.8149 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3738, "expected_assists": 0.1597, "assists": 0.1949, "assist_rate": 0.1949, "expected_goals": 0.1113, "goals": 0.1222, "goal_rate": 0.1222, "shots_on_target": 0.4422, "total_shots": 1.0997, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 84.09, "total_pass": 22.8073, "accurate_pass": 17.0845, "duels_won": 3.7684, "total_long_balls": 3.3651, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5232, "total_own_half_passes": 6.487, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2682, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3203, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8163, "crosses_total": 4.4197, "crosses_accurate": 1.326, "touches": 44.4525, "possession_lost": 14.0234, "dispossessed": 0.6516, "duels_lost": 4.1117, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1463, "interceptions": 0.8179, "tackles_won": 0.546, "tackles": 0.8916, "clearances": 0.9821, "total_contest": 3.5482, "won_contest": 1.6858, "challenges_lost": 0.717, "fouls": 0.7447, "fouls_drawn": 0.8716, "blocks": 0.0098, "big_chances_created": 0.7187, "big_chances_missed": 0.1178, "xgot": 0.1038, "ball_carries": 11.1733, "total_progression": 60.8097, "progressive_carries": 2.6676, "shots_off_target": 0.6519, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.314, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.314, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8, "skill_edge": -0.1761, "height_edge": 0.04, "attacker_skill": 0.4388, "defender_skill": 0.8301, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Giuliano Simeone", "market_value": 44000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8301 } ], "xg_override": 0.1113 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3102, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3746, "after": 1.0997 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.8149, "after": 0.6519 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5528, "after": 0.4422 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1527, "after": 0.1222 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1472, "after": 0.1178 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1391, "after": 0.1113 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1298, "after": 0.1038 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.16 (squad xG sum 0.9447, xG scale 1.2311, xA scale 1.2311, team xA 0.90 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3738, "expected_assists": 0.1966, "assist_rate": 0.1949, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.137, "goal_rate": 0.1222, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4422, "total_shots": 1.0997, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 84.09, "total_pass": 22.8073, "accurate_pass": 17.0845, "duels_won": 3.7684, "total_long_balls": 3.3651, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5232, "total_own_half_passes": 6.487, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2682, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3203, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8163, "crosses_total": 4.4197, "crosses_accurate": 1.326, "touches": 44.4525, "possession_lost": 14.0234, "dispossessed": 0.6516, "duels_lost": 4.1117, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1463, "interceptions": 0.8179, "tackles_won": 0.546, "tackles": 0.8916, "clearances": 0.9821, "total_contest": 3.5482, "won_contest": 1.6858, "challenges_lost": 0.717, "fouls": 0.7447, "fouls_drawn": 0.8716, "blocks": 0.0098, "big_chances_created": 0.7187, "big_chances_missed": 0.1178, "xgot": 0.1278, "ball_carries": 11.1733, "total_progression": 60.8097, "progressive_carries": 2.6676, "shots_off_target": 0.6519, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.314, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0676, "creation_factor": 1.1679 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.163, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9447, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7333, "team_expected_assists": 0.9028, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7763, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2311, "xa_scale": 1.2311, "opponent_lambda": 2.713, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1113, "after": 0.137 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1597, "after": 0.1966 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3738, "expected_assists": 0.1966, "assist_rate": 0.1949, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.137, "goal_rate": 0.1222, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4422, "total_shots": 1.0997, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 84.09, "total_pass": 22.8073, "accurate_pass": 17.0845, "duels_won": 3.7684, "total_long_balls": 3.3651, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5232, "total_own_half_passes": 6.487, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2682, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3203, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8163, "crosses_total": 4.4197, "crosses_accurate": 1.326, "touches": 44.4525, "possession_lost": 14.0234, "dispossessed": 0.6516, "duels_lost": 4.1117, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1463, "interceptions": 0.8179, "tackles_won": 0.546, "tackles": 0.8916, "clearances": 0.9821, "total_contest": 3.5482, "won_contest": 1.6858, "challenges_lost": 0.717, "fouls": 0.7447, "fouls_drawn": 0.8716, "blocks": 0.0098, "big_chances_created": 0.7187, "big_chances_missed": 0.1178, "xgot": 0.1278, "ball_carries": 11.1733, "total_progression": 60.8097, "progressive_carries": 2.6676, "shots_off_target": 0.6519, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.314, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0676, "creation_factor": 1.1679, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4209, "fifa_rank": 4243.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3738, "expected_assists": 0.1966, "assist_rate": 0.1949, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.137, "goal_rate": 0.1222, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4422, "total_shots": 1.0997, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 84.09, "total_pass": 22.8073, "accurate_pass": 17.0845, "duels_won": 3.7684, "total_long_balls": 3.3651, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5232, "total_own_half_passes": 6.487, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2682, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3203, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8163, "crosses_total": 4.4197, "crosses_accurate": 1.326, "touches": 44.4525, "possession_lost": 14.0234, "dispossessed": 0.6516, "duels_lost": 4.1117, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1463, "interceptions": 0.8179, "tackles_won": 0.546, "tackles": 0.8916, "clearances": 0.9821, "total_contest": 3.5482, "won_contest": 1.6858, "challenges_lost": 0.717, "fouls": 0.7447, "fouls_drawn": 0.8716, "blocks": 0.0098, "big_chances_created": 0.7187, "big_chances_missed": 0.1178, "xgot": 0.1278, "ball_carries": 11.1733, "total_progression": 60.8097, "progressive_carries": 2.6676, "shots_off_target": 0.6519, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.314, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.128, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0676, "creation_factor": 1.1679, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.128, "scorer_weight": 0.1463, "squad_weight_total": 1.2116, "weight_share": 0.1207, "finishing_factor": 1.0676, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.329, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.329, "runner_up": "Mariano Díaz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2236 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3738, "expected_assists": 0.1966, "assist_rate": 0.1949, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.137, "goal_rate": 0.1222, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4422, "total_shots": 1.0997, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 84.09, "total_pass": 22.8073, "accurate_pass": 17.0845, "duels_won": 3.7684, "total_long_balls": 3.3651, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5232, "total_own_half_passes": 6.487, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2682, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3203, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8163, "crosses_total": 4.4197, "crosses_accurate": 1.326, "touches": 44.4525, "possession_lost": 14.0234, "dispossessed": 0.6516, "duels_lost": 4.1117, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1463, "interceptions": 0.8179, "tackles_won": 0.546, "tackles": 0.8916, "clearances": 0.9821, "total_contest": 3.5482, "won_contest": 1.6858, "challenges_lost": 0.717, "fouls": 0.7447, "fouls_drawn": 0.8716, "blocks": 0.0098, "big_chances_created": 0.7187, "big_chances_missed": 0.1178, "xgot": 0.1278, "ball_carries": 11.1733, "total_progression": 60.8097, "progressive_carries": 2.6676, "shots_off_target": 0.6519, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.314, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.128, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1785, "finishing_factor": 1.0676, "creation_factor": 1.1679, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1785, "provider_weight": 0.2296, "squad_weight_total": 0.9183, "weight_share": 0.25, "creation_factor": 1.1679, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.2296, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2296, "runner_up": "Denis Suárez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1582, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Toni Martínez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Nahuel Tenaglia": { "player_id": 896073, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 182, "market_value": 3200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8115, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 49, "possession_lost": 9.4546, "dispossessed": 0.7873, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0993, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0513, "expected_assists": 0.0486, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0641, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 55, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.687, "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "pressing_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.05, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0474, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0166, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2619, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0533, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0147, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3096, "expected_assists": 0.0325, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 52, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0566, "expected_assists": 0.0429, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0587, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0405, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2146, "combined_rank_score": 809.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 62.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.65, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1557.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8115, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kaito Taniguchi", "ranking": 2141 }, { "player_name": "Seok-jun Hong", "ranking": 2142 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Valles", "ranking": 2143 }, { "player_name": "Lazar Samardžić", "ranking": 2144 }, { "player_name": "Giovanny Avalos", "ranking": 2145 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Breel Embolo", "ranking": 2147 }, { "player_name": "Sergi Cardona", "ranking": 2148 }, { "player_name": "Kim Geon-oh", "ranking": 2149 }, { "player_name": "Ben Chilwell", "ranking": 2150 }, { "player_name": "Nicholas Duarte", "ranking": 2151 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 43, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 43, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.998, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.33, "shots_on_target_pct": 25.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 43 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Alavés, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.3333333333333333, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0893, "tackles": 1.9744, "tackles_won": 1.2889, "clearances": 3.4951, "aerial_won": 1.0774, "total_shots": 0.6304, "rating": 6.8115, "minutes": 85.33, "total_pass": 28.2646, "accurate_pass": 23.1874, "duels_won": 4.4122, "total_long_balls": 4.0637, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7801, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1644, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8406, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1001, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3467, "crosses_total": 1.1289, "crosses_accurate": 0.1295, "touches": 49.5953, "possession_lost": 9.4735, "dispossessed": 0.7889, "duels_lost": 4.3214, "aerial_lost": 1.129, "total_contest": 1.207, "won_contest": 0.2574, "ball_recovery": 3.5276, "challenges_lost": 0.5711, "fouls": 0.9237, "fouls_drawn": 1.425, "blocks": 0.3802, "goals": 0.0965, "goal_rate": 0.0965, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0418, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "shots_on_target": 0.2922, "big_chances_created": 0.1335, "xgot": 0.0522, "ball_carries": 10.7979, "total_progression": 55.498, "progressive_carries": 1.4322, "key_pass": 0.3042, "shots_off_target": 0.3382 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 8.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 4.1605, "aerialWon": 1.0137, "totalClearance_p90": 4.5948, "totalTackle": 1.8662, "totalPass": 28.2646 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.089300513267517, "model_output": 1.0893, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1138 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0771 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0289 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0159 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0148 } ], "others": 0.0111, "total": 1.0893, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12462 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.076431 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.0272 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.014682 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013617 } ], "others_margin": 0.01022 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.974389910697937, "model_output": 1.9744, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1973 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0785 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0711 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.064 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0647 } ], "others": 0.1049, "total": 1.9744, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132366 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.048147 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.041721 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.036091 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.035221 } ], "others_margin": 0.054624 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.2889454364776611, "model_output": 1.2889, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.122 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0834 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0836 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0429 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0311 } ], "others": 0.0715, "total": 1.2889, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.133437 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.081968 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.075962 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.036866 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.025884 } ], "others_margin": 0.05712 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.495086193084717, "model_output": 3.4951, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4494 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.35 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3155 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.172 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.1033 } ], "others": -0.4399, "total": 3.4951, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.1224 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.094016 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.085123 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.043527 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.025911 } ], "others_margin": -0.118548 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.077364444732666, "model_output": 1.0774, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1566 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1175 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.064 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0524 } ], "others": -0.2268, "total": 1.0774, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.186772 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127997 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.086342 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.046113 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.039391 } ], "others_margin": -0.191098 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6303684711456299, "model_output": 0.6304, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0629 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.062 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0355 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0174 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0155 } ], "others": -0.034, "total": 0.6304, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062872 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.061994 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.035528 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.017356 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.015543 } ], "others_margin": -0.034057 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.811487674713135, "model_output": 6.8115, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0328 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0109 } ], "others": -0.0323, "total": 6.8115, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.032837 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.014937 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.011938 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.011805 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.010856 } ], "others_margin": -0.032408 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 43, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9980, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0871, "tackles": 1.9704, "tackles_won": 1.2864, "clearances": 3.4881, "aerial_won": 1.0752, "total_shots": 0.6291, "rating": 6.8115, "minutes": 85.33, "total_pass": 28.2081, "accurate_pass": 23.141, "duels_won": 4.4034, "total_long_balls": 4.0556, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7765, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1341, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8129, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0739, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.328, "crosses_total": 1.1266, "crosses_accurate": 0.1292, "touches": 49.4961, "possession_lost": 9.4546, "dispossessed": 0.7873, "duels_lost": 4.3128, "aerial_lost": 1.1267, "total_contest": 1.2046, "won_contest": 0.2569, "ball_recovery": 3.5205, "challenges_lost": 0.57, "fouls": 0.9219, "fouls_drawn": 1.4222, "blocks": 0.3794, "goals": 0.0963, "goal_rate": 0.0963, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0417, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "shots_on_target": 0.2916, "big_chances_created": 0.1332, "xgot": 0.0521, "ball_carries": 10.7763, "total_progression": 55.387, "progressive_carries": 1.4293, "key_pass": 0.3036, "shots_off_target": 0.3375 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3200000, "quality_factor": 0.4399, "boost_factor": 0.998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0135)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0938, "tackles": 1.9704, "tackles_won": 1.2861, "clearances": 3.4881, "aerial_won": 1.0752, "total_shots": 0.6377, "rating": 6.8115, "minutes": 85.33, "total_pass": 28.2081, "accurate_pass": 23.141, "duels_won": 4.4034, "total_long_balls": 4.0556, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7765, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1341, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8129, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0739, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.328, "crosses_total": 1.1199, "crosses_accurate": 0.1292, "touches": 49.4961, "possession_lost": 9.4546, "dispossessed": 0.7873, "duels_lost": 4.3128, "aerial_lost": 1.1267, "total_contest": 1.2046, "won_contest": 0.2569, "ball_recovery": 3.5205, "challenges_lost": 0.57, "fouls": 0.9265, "fouls_drawn": 1.4158, "blocks": 0.3794, "goals": 0.0993, "goal_rate": 0.0993, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0417, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "shots_on_target": 0.2919, "big_chances_created": 0.1332, "xgot": 0.0521, "ball_carries": 10.7763, "total_progression": 55.387, "progressive_carries": 1.4293, "key_pass": 0.3036, "shots_off_target": 0.3375 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0135, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9481, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6291, "after": 0.6377 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.0871, "after": 1.0938 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.1266, "after": 1.1199 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.4222, "after": 1.4158 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0938, "tackles": 1.9704, "tackles_won": 1.2861, "clearances": 3.4881, "aerial_won": 1.0752, "total_shots": 0.6377, "rating": 6.8115, "minutes": 85.33, "total_pass": 28.2081, "accurate_pass": 23.141, "duels_won": 4.4034, "total_long_balls": 4.0556, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7765, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1341, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8129, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0739, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.328, "crosses_total": 1.1199, "crosses_accurate": 0.1292, "touches": 49.4961, "possession_lost": 9.4546, "dispossessed": 0.7873, "duels_lost": 4.3128, "aerial_lost": 1.1267, "total_contest": 1.2046, "won_contest": 0.2569, "ball_recovery": 3.5205, "challenges_lost": 0.57, "fouls": 0.9265, "fouls_drawn": 1.4158, "blocks": 0.3794, "goals": 0.0993, "goal_rate": 0.0993, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0417, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "shots_on_target": 0.2919, "big_chances_created": 0.1332, "xgot": 0.0521, "ball_carries": 10.7763, "total_progression": 55.387, "progressive_carries": 1.4293, "key_pass": 0.3036, "shots_off_target": 0.3375 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0938, "tackles": 1.9704, "tackles_won": 1.2861, "clearances": 3.4881, "aerial_won": 1.0752, "total_shots": 0.6377, "rating": 6.8115, "minutes": 85.33, "total_pass": 28.2081, "accurate_pass": 23.141, "duels_won": 4.4034, "total_long_balls": 4.0556, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7765, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1341, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8129, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0739, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.328, "crosses_total": 1.1199, "crosses_accurate": 0.1292, "touches": 49.4961, "possession_lost": 9.4546, "dispossessed": 0.7873, "duels_lost": 4.3128, "aerial_lost": 1.1267, "total_contest": 1.2046, "won_contest": 0.2569, "ball_recovery": 3.5205, "challenges_lost": 0.57, "fouls": 0.9265, "fouls_drawn": 1.4158, "blocks": 0.3794, "goals": 0.0993, "goal_rate": 0.0993, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0417, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "shots_on_target": 0.2919, "big_chances_created": 0.1332, "xgot": 0.0521, "ball_carries": 10.7763, "total_progression": 55.387, "progressive_carries": 1.4293, "key_pass": 0.3036, "shots_off_target": 0.3375, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.687, "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "pressing_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "matchup_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.16 (squad xG sum 0.9447, xG scale 1.2311, xA scale 1.2311, team xA 0.90 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0938, "tackles": 1.9704, "tackles_won": 1.2861, "clearances": 3.4881, "aerial_won": 1.0752, "total_shots": 0.6377, "rating": 6.8115, "minutes": 85.33, "total_pass": 28.2081, "accurate_pass": 23.141, "duels_won": 4.4034, "total_long_balls": 4.0556, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7765, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1341, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8129, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0739, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.328, "crosses_total": 1.1199, "crosses_accurate": 0.1292, "touches": 49.4961, "possession_lost": 9.4546, "dispossessed": 0.7873, "duels_lost": 4.3128, "aerial_lost": 1.1267, "total_contest": 1.2046, "won_contest": 0.2569, "ball_recovery": 3.5205, "challenges_lost": 0.57, "fouls": 0.9265, "fouls_drawn": 1.4158, "blocks": 0.3794, "goal_rate": 0.0993, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0513, "expected_assists": 0.0486, "shots_on_target": 0.2919, "big_chances_created": 0.1332, "xgot": 0.0641, "ball_carries": 10.7763, "total_progression": 55.387, "progressive_carries": 1.4293, "key_pass": 0.3036, "shots_off_target": 0.3375, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.687, "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "pressing_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.163, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9447, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7333, "team_expected_assists": 0.9028, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7763, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2311, "xa_scale": 1.2311, "opponent_lambda": 2.713, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0417, "after": 0.0513 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0395, "after": 0.0486 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0938, "tackles": 1.9704, "tackles_won": 1.2861, "clearances": 3.4881, "aerial_won": 1.0752, "total_shots": 0.6377, "rating": 6.8115, "minutes": 85.33, "total_pass": 28.2081, "accurate_pass": 23.141, "duels_won": 4.4034, "total_long_balls": 4.0556, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7765, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1341, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8129, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0739, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.328, "crosses_total": 1.1199, "crosses_accurate": 0.1292, "touches": 49.4961, "possession_lost": 9.4546, "dispossessed": 0.7873, "duels_lost": 4.3128, "aerial_lost": 1.1267, "total_contest": 1.2046, "won_contest": 0.2569, "ball_recovery": 3.5205, "challenges_lost": 0.57, "fouls": 0.9265, "fouls_drawn": 1.4158, "blocks": 0.3794, "goal_rate": 0.0993, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0513, "expected_assists": 0.0486, "shots_on_target": 0.2919, "big_chances_created": 0.1332, "xgot": 0.0641, "ball_carries": 10.7763, "total_progression": 55.387, "progressive_carries": 1.4293, "key_pass": 0.3036, "shots_off_target": 0.3375, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.687, "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "pressing_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2146, "fifa_rank": 1557.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0938, "tackles": 1.9704, "tackles_won": 1.2861, "clearances": 3.4881, "aerial_won": 1.0752, "total_shots": 0.6377, "rating": 6.8115, "minutes": 85.33, "total_pass": 28.2081, "accurate_pass": 23.141, "duels_won": 4.4034, "total_long_balls": 4.0556, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7765, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1341, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8129, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0739, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.328, "crosses_total": 1.1199, "crosses_accurate": 0.1292, "touches": 49.4961, "possession_lost": 9.4546, "dispossessed": 0.7873, "duels_lost": 4.3128, "aerial_lost": 1.1267, "total_contest": 1.2046, "won_contest": 0.2569, "ball_recovery": 3.5205, "challenges_lost": 0.57, "fouls": 0.9265, "fouls_drawn": 1.4158, "blocks": 0.3794, "goal_rate": 0.0993, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0513, "expected_assists": 0.0486, "shots_on_target": 0.2919, "big_chances_created": 0.1332, "xgot": 0.0641, "ball_carries": 10.7763, "total_progression": 55.387, "progressive_carries": 1.4293, "key_pass": 0.3036, "shots_off_target": 0.3375, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.687, "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "pressing_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.05, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.05, "scorer_weight": 0.0641, "squad_weight_total": 1.2116, "weight_share": 0.0529, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.329, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.329, "runner_up": "Mariano Díaz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2236 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0938, "tackles": 1.9704, "tackles_won": 1.2861, "clearances": 3.4881, "aerial_won": 1.0752, "total_shots": 0.6377, "rating": 6.8115, "minutes": 85.33, "total_pass": 28.2081, "accurate_pass": 23.141, "duels_won": 4.4034, "total_long_balls": 4.0556, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7765, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1341, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8129, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0739, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.328, "crosses_total": 1.1199, "crosses_accurate": 0.1292, "touches": 49.4961, "possession_lost": 9.4546, "dispossessed": 0.7873, "duels_lost": 4.3128, "aerial_lost": 1.1267, "total_contest": 1.2046, "won_contest": 0.2569, "ball_recovery": 3.5205, "challenges_lost": 0.57, "fouls": 0.9265, "fouls_drawn": 1.4158, "blocks": 0.3794, "goal_rate": 0.0993, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0513, "expected_assists": 0.0486, "shots_on_target": 0.2919, "big_chances_created": 0.1332, "xgot": 0.0641, "ball_carries": 10.7763, "total_progression": 55.387, "progressive_carries": 1.4293, "key_pass": 0.3036, "shots_off_target": 0.3375, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.687, "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "pressing_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.05, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0474, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0474, "provider_weight": 0.0389, "squad_weight_total": 0.9183, "weight_share": 0.0423, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.2296, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2296, "runner_up": "Denis Suárez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1582, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Toni Martínez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Mariano Díaz": { "player_id": 175753, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 180, "market_value": 285000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2196, "goal_rate": 0.1825, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0513, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 67, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 6.3753, "dispossessed": 1.0758, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1732, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1573, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6816, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1972, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.05, "finishing_factor": 1.018, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 91.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0251, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0803, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6386, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1401, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 36, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3295, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 9.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.185, "expected_assists": 0.2275, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14081799, "match_date": "2026-03-08", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0811, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083121, "match_date": "2025-11-22", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0118, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083114, "match_date": "2025-11-08", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4, "combined_rank_score": 7.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 11.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.45, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 3.0, "fifa_overall": 91.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7464, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mariano Díaz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking": 1 }, { "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking": 2 }, { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 3 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking": 5 }, { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 }, { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 7 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Fernandes", "ranking": 8 }, { "player_name": "Felix Horn Myhre", "ranking": 9 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 17, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 17, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9954, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 17 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2629, "goals": 0.2691, "goal_rate": 0.2691, "shots_on_target": 0.7364, "total_shots": 1.6978, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "key_pass": 0.5929, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 67.24, "total_pass": 7.825, "accurate_pass": 5.4099, "duels_won": 2.1131, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8828, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5934, "crosses_total": 0.4734, "crosses_accurate": 0.2408, "touches": 16.1591, "possession_lost": 6.4048, "dispossessed": 1.0808, "duels_lost": 5.8547, "aerial_lost": 2.1608, "total_contest": 1.4167, "won_contest": 0.2809, "ball_recovery": 1.4512, "challenges_lost": 0.5527, "fouls": 0.9246, "fouls_drawn": 0.174, "assists": 0.174, "assist_rate": 0.174, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1257, "tackles": 0.3771, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1069, "big_chances_created": 0.3604, "big_chances_missed": 0.4094, "xgot": 0.1884, "offsides": 2.0462, "ball_carries": 5.4966, "total_progression": 13.5635, "progressive_carries": 1.5617, "shots_off_target": 0.9614 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1601, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1361, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1157, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0983, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 36.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0836, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.071, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0604, "rating": 9.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-08", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0513, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2025-11-22", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0436, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2025-11-08", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0371, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 17.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1293, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 4.5735, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 2.9735, "accuratePass": 5.1126, "totalShots": 0.943 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.26289889216423035, "model_output": 0.2629, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0774 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0079 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0076 } ], "others": 0.0, "total": 0.2629, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.328694 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.14425 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.032548 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.032255 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.029437 } ], "others_margin": 8e-06 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.26905274391174316, "model_output": 0.2691, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0786 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0468 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": 0.0124, "total": 0.2691, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.326338 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.181146 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.07681 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.046381 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.037177 } ], "others_margin": 0.04681 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7363556623458862, "model_output": 0.7364, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.176 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0405 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0372 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0319 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0256 } ], "others": 0.0264, "total": 0.7364, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.283514 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.055196 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.05067 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.045497 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.036736 } ], "others_margin": 0.036473 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.6977471113204956, "model_output": 1.6977, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4518 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1448 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0406 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": -0.0342 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.027 } ], "others": 0.0326, "total": 1.6977, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.45177 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.144847 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.040575 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": -0.034184 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.027044 } ], "others_margin": 0.032771 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04184485599398613, "model_output": 0.0418, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0124 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0128, "total": 0.0418, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.176085 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.121082 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.10894 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.059426 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.052337 } ], "others_margin": -0.263631 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.592945396900177, "model_output": 0.5929, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2002 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0643 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0412 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0372 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0348 } ], "others": -0.1038, "total": 0.5929, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.260088 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.076349 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.052254 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.049603 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.048697 } ], "others_margin": -0.161278 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.746371746063232, "model_output": 6.7464, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0526 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0047, "total": 6.7464, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052566 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.021118 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.016234 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013652 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012738 } ], "others_margin": -0.004614 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 17, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9954, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2617, "goals": 0.2678, "goal_rate": 0.2678, "shots_on_target": 0.733, "total_shots": 1.69, "expected_assists": 0.0417, "key_pass": 0.5902, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 67.24, "total_pass": 7.789, "accurate_pass": 5.385, "duels_won": 2.1034, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8603, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5815, "crosses_total": 0.4712, "crosses_accurate": 0.2397, "touches": 16.0848, "possession_lost": 6.3753, "dispossessed": 1.0758, "duels_lost": 5.8278, "aerial_lost": 2.1509, "total_contest": 1.4102, "won_contest": 0.2796, "ball_recovery": 1.4445, "challenges_lost": 0.5502, "fouls": 0.9203, "fouls_drawn": 0.1732, "assists": 0.1732, "assist_rate": 0.1732, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1251, "tackles": 0.3754, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1064, "big_chances_created": 0.3587, "big_chances_missed": 0.4075, "xgot": 0.1875, "offsides": 2.0368, "ball_carries": 5.4713, "total_progression": 13.5011, "progressive_carries": 1.5545, "shots_off_target": 0.957 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 285000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9954, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 17, "history_shrink": 0.2273, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2617, "goals": 0.2678, "goal_rate": 0.2678, "shots_on_target": 0.733, "total_shots": 1.69, "expected_assists": 0.0417, "key_pass": 0.5902, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 67.24, "total_pass": 7.789, "accurate_pass": 5.385, "duels_won": 2.1034, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8603, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5815, "crosses_total": 0.4712, "crosses_accurate": 0.2397, "touches": 16.0848, "possession_lost": 6.3753, "dispossessed": 1.0758, "duels_lost": 5.8278, "aerial_lost": 2.1509, "total_contest": 1.4102, "won_contest": 0.2796, "ball_recovery": 1.4445, "challenges_lost": 0.5502, "fouls": 0.9203, "fouls_drawn": 0.1732, "assists": 0.1732, "assist_rate": 0.1732, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1251, "tackles": 0.3754, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1064, "big_chances_created": 0.3587, "big_chances_missed": 0.4075, "xgot": 0.1875, "offsides": 2.0368, "ball_carries": 5.4713, "total_progression": 13.5011, "progressive_carries": 1.5545, "shots_off_target": 0.957 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1784, "goals": 0.1825, "goal_rate": 0.1825, "shots_on_target": 0.4996, "total_shots": 1.1519, "expected_assists": 0.0417, "key_pass": 0.5902, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 67.24, "total_pass": 7.789, "accurate_pass": 5.385, "duels_won": 2.1034, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8603, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5815, "crosses_total": 0.4712, "crosses_accurate": 0.2397, "touches": 16.0848, "possession_lost": 6.3753, "dispossessed": 1.0758, "duels_lost": 5.8278, "aerial_lost": 2.1509, "total_contest": 1.4102, "won_contest": 0.2796, "ball_recovery": 1.4445, "challenges_lost": 0.5502, "fouls": 0.9203, "fouls_drawn": 0.1732, "assists": 0.1732, "assist_rate": 0.1732, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1251, "tackles": 0.3754, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1064, "big_chances_created": 0.3587, "big_chances_missed": 0.2778, "xgot": 0.1278, "offsides": 2.0368, "ball_carries": 5.4713, "total_progression": 13.5011, "progressive_carries": 1.5545, "shots_off_target": 0.6523, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6816, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.6816, "skill_edge": -0.1806, "height_edge": -0.036, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.8388, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Dávid Hancko", "market_value": 36000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8168 }, { "player": "Marc Pubill", "market_value": 48000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8608 } ], "xg_override": 0.1784 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.69, "after": 1.1519 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.957, "after": 0.6523 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.733, "after": 0.4996 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.4075, "after": 0.2778 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2678, "after": 0.1825 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2617, "after": 0.1784 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1875, "after": 0.1278 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.16 (squad xG sum 0.9447, xG scale 1.2311, xA scale 1.2311, team xA 0.90 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2196, "goal_rate": 0.1825, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4996, "total_shots": 1.1519, "expected_assists": 0.0513, "key_pass": 0.5902, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 67.24, "total_pass": 7.789, "accurate_pass": 5.385, "duels_won": 2.1034, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8603, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5815, "crosses_total": 0.4712, "crosses_accurate": 0.2397, "touches": 16.0848, "possession_lost": 6.3753, "dispossessed": 1.0758, "duels_lost": 5.8278, "aerial_lost": 2.1509, "total_contest": 1.4102, "won_contest": 0.2796, "ball_recovery": 1.4445, "challenges_lost": 0.5502, "fouls": 0.9203, "fouls_drawn": 0.1732, "assist_rate": 0.1732, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1251, "tackles": 0.3754, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1064, "big_chances_created": 0.3587, "big_chances_missed": 0.2778, "xgot": 0.1573, "offsides": 2.0368, "ball_carries": 5.4713, "total_progression": 13.5011, "progressive_carries": 1.5545, "shots_off_target": 0.6523, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6816, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.018, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.163, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9447, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7333, "team_expected_assists": 0.9028, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7763, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2311, "xa_scale": 1.2311, "opponent_lambda": 2.713, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1784, "after": 0.2196 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0417, "after": 0.0513 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 91.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2196, "goal_rate": 0.1825, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4996, "total_shots": 1.1519, "expected_assists": 0.0513, "key_pass": 0.5902, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 67.24, "total_pass": 7.789, "accurate_pass": 5.385, "duels_won": 2.1034, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8603, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5815, "crosses_total": 0.4712, "crosses_accurate": 0.2397, "touches": 16.0848, "possession_lost": 6.3753, "dispossessed": 1.0758, "duels_lost": 5.8278, "aerial_lost": 2.1509, "total_contest": 1.4102, "won_contest": 0.2796, "ball_recovery": 1.4445, "challenges_lost": 0.5502, "fouls": 0.9203, "fouls_drawn": 0.1732, "assist_rate": 0.1732, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1251, "tackles": 0.3754, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1064, "big_chances_created": 0.3587, "big_chances_missed": 0.2778, "xgot": 0.1573, "offsides": 2.0368, "ball_carries": 5.4713, "total_progression": 13.5011, "progressive_carries": 1.5545, "shots_off_target": 0.6523, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6816, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.018, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 91.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4, "fifa_rank": 3.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 91.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2196, "goal_rate": 0.1825, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4996, "total_shots": 1.1519, "expected_assists": 0.0513, "key_pass": 0.5902, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 67.24, "total_pass": 7.789, "accurate_pass": 5.385, "duels_won": 2.1034, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8603, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5815, "crosses_total": 0.4712, "crosses_accurate": 0.2397, "touches": 16.0848, "possession_lost": 6.3753, "dispossessed": 1.0758, "duels_lost": 5.8278, "aerial_lost": 2.1509, "total_contest": 1.4102, "won_contest": 0.2796, "ball_recovery": 1.4445, "challenges_lost": 0.5502, "fouls": 0.9203, "fouls_drawn": 0.1732, "assist_rate": 0.1732, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1251, "tackles": 0.3754, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1064, "big_chances_created": 0.3587, "big_chances_missed": 0.2778, "xgot": 0.1573, "offsides": 2.0368, "ball_carries": 5.4713, "total_progression": 13.5011, "progressive_carries": 1.5545, "shots_off_target": 0.6523, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6816, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1972, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.018, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 91.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1972, "scorer_weight": 0.2236, "squad_weight_total": 1.2116, "weight_share": 0.1845, "finishing_factor": 1.018, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.329, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.329, "runner_up": "Mariano Díaz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2236 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2196, "goal_rate": 0.1825, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4996, "total_shots": 1.1519, "expected_assists": 0.0513, "key_pass": 0.5902, "rating": 6.7464, "minutes": 67.24, "total_pass": 7.789, "accurate_pass": 5.385, "duels_won": 2.1034, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8603, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5815, "crosses_total": 0.4712, "crosses_accurate": 0.2397, "touches": 16.0848, "possession_lost": 6.3753, "dispossessed": 1.0758, "duels_lost": 5.8278, "aerial_lost": 2.1509, "total_contest": 1.4102, "won_contest": 0.2796, "ball_recovery": 1.4445, "challenges_lost": 0.5502, "fouls": 0.9203, "fouls_drawn": 0.1732, "assist_rate": 0.1732, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1251, "tackles": 0.3754, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1064, "big_chances_created": 0.3587, "big_chances_missed": 0.2778, "xgot": 0.1573, "offsides": 2.0368, "ball_carries": 5.4713, "total_progression": 13.5011, "progressive_carries": 1.5545, "shots_off_target": 0.6523, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6816, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1972, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.05, "finishing_factor": 1.018, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 91.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.05, "provider_weight": 0.0641, "squad_weight_total": 0.9183, "weight_share": 0.0698, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.2296, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2296, "runner_up": "Denis Suárez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1582, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Toni Martínez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Toni Martínez": { "player_id": 831253, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 180, "market_value": 7300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3074, "goal_rate": 0.2708, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0529, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8135, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 10.7056, "dispossessed": 0.9582, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0245, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2606, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 15, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7165, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2646, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0515, "finishing_factor": 1.0704, "creation_factor": 0.8011, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1819, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0527, "expected_assists": 0.1076, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 54, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.3729, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3202, "expected_assists": 0.012, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5449, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8192, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.129, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 12, "duels_won": 13, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083578, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8228, "expected_assists": 0.0756, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2078, "combined_rank_score": 790.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 345.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9892, "sofascore_appearances": 37.0, "fifa_rank": 1236.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8135, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Toni Martínez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Luiz Júnior", "ranking": 2073 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Rodríguez", "ranking": 2074 }, { "player_name": "Abbos Gulomov", "ranking": 2075 }, { "player_name": "Chan-dong Lee", "ranking": 2076 }, { "player_name": "Leonardo Spinazzola", "ranking": 2077 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Callum Hudson Odoi", "ranking": 2079 }, { "player_name": "Cédric Bakambu", "ranking": 2080 }, { "player_name": "Renato Veiga", "ranking": 2081 }, { "player_name": "Shodiyor Shodiboev", "ranking": 2082 }, { "player_name": "Matija Rom", "ranking": 2083 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.776, "history_matches": 43, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 43, "data_confidence": 0.776, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9995, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 233.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.7, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1733 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 43 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Alavés, rel: 0.17, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3487, "goals": 0.3827, "goal_rate": 0.3827, "shots_on_target": 0.8915, "total_shots": 2.4736, "expected_assists": 0.043, "key_pass": 0.6373, "rating": 6.8135, "minutes": 78.96, "total_pass": 15.3213, "accurate_pass": 8.923, "duels_won": 6.7259, "total_long_balls": 0.4814, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2003, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3543, "crosses_total": 0.2159, "crosses_accurate": 0.0672, "touches": 27.5353, "possession_lost": 10.711, "dispossessed": 0.9587, "duels_lost": 6.4765, "aerial_lost": 3.3534, "total_contest": 0.9743, "won_contest": 0.1289, "ball_recovery": 1.558, "challenges_lost": 0.3606, "fouls": 1.0516, "fouls_drawn": 1.5254, "assists": 0.0248, "assist_rate": 0.0248, "interceptions": 0.0069, "tackles_won": 0.5799, "tackles": 0.7187, "clearances": 1.1941, "blocks": 0.1546, "big_chances_created": 0.2926, "big_chances_missed": 0.3883, "xgot": 0.2956, "offsides": 0.3022, "ball_carries": 6.0691, "total_progression": 14.5978, "progressive_carries": 0.7674, "shots_off_target": 1.5821 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 54.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.3306, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 9.9351, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 4.9504, "accuratePass": 6.9625, "totalShots": 2.047 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.348687082529068, "model_output": 0.3487, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0667 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0337 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0103 } ], "others": 0.0152, "total": 0.3487, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.289095 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.119351 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.039328 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.03707 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.031284 } ], "others_margin": 0.044971 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.3827120363712311, "model_output": 0.3827, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0566 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0468 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0228 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0172 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0132 } ], "others": 0.0224, "total": 0.3827, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.244961 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.165372 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.071691 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.05083 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.037198 } ], "others_margin": 0.060338 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.8914908170700073, "model_output": 0.8915, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.178 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0612 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0357 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0272 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0246 } ], "others": 0.0278, "total": 0.8915, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.28623 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.082169 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.045016 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.032919 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.028952 } ], "others_margin": 0.031649 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.4735848903656006, "model_output": 2.4736, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.586 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1539 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0788 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0509 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0453 } ], "others": 0.18, "total": 2.4736, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.585969 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.153912 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.078849 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.050888 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.045348 } ], "others_margin": 0.179912 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04298582300543785, "model_output": 0.043, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0024 } ], "others": -0.0113, "total": 0.043, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.260709 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.138586 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.125543 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.121244 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.043901 } ], "others_margin": -0.233864 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6373384594917297, "model_output": 0.6373, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2105 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0591 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0503 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0434 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0315 } ], "others": -0.0629, "total": 0.6373, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.27179 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.069123 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.062867 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.057615 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.043998 } ], "others_margin": -0.094081 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8134942054748535, "model_output": 6.8135, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.058 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.01, "total": 6.8135, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058019 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.013848 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.011795 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.011188 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011108 } ], "others_margin": -0.010034 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9995, quality 0.490)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3485, "goals": 0.3825, "goal_rate": 0.3825, "shots_on_target": 0.891, "total_shots": 2.4724, "expected_assists": 0.043, "key_pass": 0.637, "rating": 6.8135, "minutes": 78.96, "total_pass": 15.3136, "accurate_pass": 8.9185, "duels_won": 6.7225, "total_long_balls": 0.4812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2002, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3511, "crosses_total": 0.2158, "crosses_accurate": 0.0672, "touches": 27.5215, "possession_lost": 10.7056, "dispossessed": 0.9582, "duels_lost": 6.4733, "aerial_lost": 3.3517, "total_contest": 0.9738, "won_contest": 0.1288, "ball_recovery": 1.5572, "challenges_lost": 0.3604, "fouls": 1.0511, "fouls_drawn": 1.5246, "assists": 0.0248, "assist_rate": 0.0248, "interceptions": 0.0069, "tackles_won": 0.5796, "tackles": 0.7183, "clearances": 1.1935, "blocks": 0.1545, "big_chances_created": 0.2925, "big_chances_missed": 0.3881, "xgot": 0.2955, "offsides": 0.302, "ball_carries": 6.0661, "total_progression": 14.5905, "progressive_carries": 0.767, "shots_off_target": 1.5813 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7300000, "quality_factor": 0.4903, "boost_factor": 0.9995, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0117)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3485, "goals": 0.378, "goal_rate": 0.378, "shots_on_target": 0.8805, "total_shots": 2.4712, "expected_assists": 0.043, "key_pass": 0.637, "rating": 6.8135, "minutes": 78.96, "total_pass": 15.3136, "accurate_pass": 8.9185, "duels_won": 6.7225, "total_long_balls": 0.4812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2002, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3511, "crosses_total": 0.2133, "crosses_accurate": 0.0672, "touches": 27.5215, "possession_lost": 10.7056, "dispossessed": 0.9582, "duels_lost": 6.4733, "aerial_lost": 3.3517, "total_contest": 0.9738, "won_contest": 0.1288, "ball_recovery": 1.5572, "challenges_lost": 0.3604, "fouls": 1.0467, "fouls_drawn": 1.5265, "assists": 0.0245, "assist_rate": 0.0245, "interceptions": 0.0068, "tackles_won": 0.5807, "tackles": 0.7183, "clearances": 1.1935, "blocks": 0.1545, "big_chances_created": 0.2925, "big_chances_missed": 0.3881, "xgot": 0.2955, "offsides": 0.2985, "ball_carries": 6.0661, "total_progression": 14.5905, "progressive_carries": 0.767, "shots_off_target": 1.5813 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0117, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8773, "prior_reliability": 0.1733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.891, "after": 0.8805 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3485, "goals": 0.378, "goal_rate": 0.378, "shots_on_target": 0.8805, "total_shots": 2.4712, "expected_assists": 0.043, "key_pass": 0.637, "rating": 6.8135, "minutes": 78.96, "total_pass": 15.3136, "accurate_pass": 8.9185, "duels_won": 6.7225, "total_long_balls": 0.4812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2002, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3511, "crosses_total": 0.2133, "crosses_accurate": 0.0672, "touches": 27.5215, "possession_lost": 10.7056, "dispossessed": 0.9582, "duels_lost": 6.4733, "aerial_lost": 3.3517, "total_contest": 0.9738, "won_contest": 0.1288, "ball_recovery": 1.5572, "challenges_lost": 0.3604, "fouls": 1.0467, "fouls_drawn": 1.5265, "assists": 0.0245, "assist_rate": 0.0245, "interceptions": 0.0068, "tackles_won": 0.5807, "tackles": 0.7183, "clearances": 1.1935, "blocks": 0.1545, "big_chances_created": 0.2925, "big_chances_missed": 0.3881, "xgot": 0.2955, "offsides": 0.2985, "ball_carries": 6.0661, "total_progression": 14.5905, "progressive_carries": 0.767, "shots_off_target": 1.5813 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2497, "goals": 0.2708, "goal_rate": 0.2708, "shots_on_target": 0.6309, "total_shots": 1.7706, "expected_assists": 0.043, "key_pass": 0.637, "rating": 6.8135, "minutes": 78.96, "total_pass": 15.3136, "accurate_pass": 8.9185, "duels_won": 6.7225, "total_long_balls": 0.4812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2002, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3511, "crosses_total": 0.2133, "crosses_accurate": 0.0672, "touches": 27.5215, "possession_lost": 10.7056, "dispossessed": 0.9582, "duels_lost": 6.4733, "aerial_lost": 3.3517, "total_contest": 0.9738, "won_contest": 0.1288, "ball_recovery": 1.5572, "challenges_lost": 0.3604, "fouls": 1.0467, "fouls_drawn": 1.5265, "assists": 0.0245, "assist_rate": 0.0245, "interceptions": 0.0068, "tackles_won": 0.5807, "tackles": 0.7183, "clearances": 1.1935, "blocks": 0.1545, "big_chances_created": 0.2925, "big_chances_missed": 0.2781, "xgot": 0.2117, "offsides": 0.2985, "ball_carries": 6.0661, "total_progression": 14.5905, "progressive_carries": 0.767, "shots_off_target": 1.133, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7165, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.7165, "skill_edge": -0.1569, "height_edge": -0.036, "attacker_skill": 0.4903, "defender_skill": 0.8388, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Dávid Hancko", "market_value": 36000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8168 }, { "player": "Marc Pubill", "market_value": 48000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8608 } ], "xg_override": 0.2497 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.4712, "after": 1.7706 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.5813, "after": 1.133 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8805, "after": 0.6309 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.3881, "after": 0.2781 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.378, "after": 0.2708 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3485, "after": 0.2497 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2955, "after": 0.2117 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.16 (squad xG sum 0.9447, xG scale 1.2311, xA scale 1.2311, team xA 0.90 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3074, "goal_rate": 0.2708, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6309, "total_shots": 1.7706, "expected_assists": 0.0529, "key_pass": 0.637, "rating": 6.8135, "minutes": 78.96, "total_pass": 15.3136, "accurate_pass": 8.9185, "duels_won": 6.7225, "total_long_balls": 0.4812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2002, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3511, "crosses_total": 0.2133, "crosses_accurate": 0.0672, "touches": 27.5215, "possession_lost": 10.7056, "dispossessed": 0.9582, "duels_lost": 6.4733, "aerial_lost": 3.3517, "total_contest": 0.9738, "won_contest": 0.1288, "ball_recovery": 1.5572, "challenges_lost": 0.3604, "fouls": 1.0467, "fouls_drawn": 1.5265, "assist_rate": 0.0245, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0068, "tackles_won": 0.5807, "tackles": 0.7183, "clearances": 1.1935, "blocks": 0.1545, "big_chances_created": 0.2925, "big_chances_missed": 0.2781, "xgot": 0.2606, "offsides": 0.2985, "ball_carries": 6.0661, "total_progression": 14.5905, "progressive_carries": 0.767, "shots_off_target": 1.133, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7165, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0704, "creation_factor": 0.8011 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.163, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9447, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7333, "team_expected_assists": 0.9028, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7763, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2311, "xa_scale": 1.2311, "opponent_lambda": 2.713, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2497, "after": 0.3074 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.043, "after": 0.0529 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3074, "goal_rate": 0.2708, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6309, "total_shots": 1.7706, "expected_assists": 0.0529, "key_pass": 0.637, "rating": 6.8135, "minutes": 78.96, "total_pass": 15.3136, "accurate_pass": 8.9185, "duels_won": 6.7225, "total_long_balls": 0.4812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2002, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3511, "crosses_total": 0.2133, "crosses_accurate": 0.0672, "touches": 27.5215, "possession_lost": 10.7056, "dispossessed": 0.9582, "duels_lost": 6.4733, "aerial_lost": 3.3517, "total_contest": 0.9738, "won_contest": 0.1288, "ball_recovery": 1.5572, "challenges_lost": 0.3604, "fouls": 1.0467, "fouls_drawn": 1.5265, "assist_rate": 0.0245, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0068, "tackles_won": 0.5807, "tackles": 0.7183, "clearances": 1.1935, "blocks": 0.1545, "big_chances_created": 0.2925, "big_chances_missed": 0.2781, "xgot": 0.2606, "offsides": 0.2985, "ball_carries": 6.0661, "total_progression": 14.5905, "progressive_carries": 0.767, "shots_off_target": 1.133, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7165, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0704, "creation_factor": 0.8011, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2078, "fifa_rank": 1236.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3074, "goal_rate": 0.2708, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.6309, "total_shots": 1.7706, "expected_assists": 0.0529, "key_pass": 0.637, "rating": 6.8135, "minutes": 78.96, "total_pass": 15.3136, "accurate_pass": 8.9185, "duels_won": 6.7225, "total_long_balls": 0.4812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2002, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3511, "crosses_total": 0.2133, "crosses_accurate": 0.0672, "touches": 27.5215, "possession_lost": 10.7056, "dispossessed": 0.9582, "duels_lost": 6.4733, "aerial_lost": 3.3517, "total_contest": 0.9738, "won_contest": 0.1288, "ball_recovery": 1.5572, "challenges_lost": 0.3604, "fouls": 1.0467, "fouls_drawn": 1.5265, "assist_rate": 0.0245, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0068, "tackles_won": 0.5807, "tackles": 0.7183, "clearances": 1.1935, "blocks": 0.1545, "big_chances_created": 0.2925, "big_chances_missed": 0.2781, "xgot": 0.2606, "offsides": 0.2985, "ball_carries": 6.0661, "total_progression": 14.5905, "progressive_carries": 0.767, "shots_off_target": 1.133, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7165, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2646, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0704, "creation_factor": 0.8011, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2646, "scorer_weight": 0.329, "squad_weight_total": 1.2116, "weight_share": 0.2716, "finishing_factor": 1.0704, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.329, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.329, "runner_up": "Mariano Díaz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2236 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3074, "goal_rate": 0.2708, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.6309, "total_shots": 1.7706, "expected_assists": 0.0529, "key_pass": 0.637, "rating": 6.8135, "minutes": 78.96, "total_pass": 15.3136, "accurate_pass": 8.9185, "duels_won": 6.7225, "total_long_balls": 0.4812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2002, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3511, "crosses_total": 0.2133, "crosses_accurate": 0.0672, "touches": 27.5215, "possession_lost": 10.7056, "dispossessed": 0.9582, "duels_lost": 6.4733, "aerial_lost": 3.3517, "total_contest": 0.9738, "won_contest": 0.1288, "ball_recovery": 1.5572, "challenges_lost": 0.3604, "fouls": 1.0467, "fouls_drawn": 1.5265, "assist_rate": 0.0245, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0068, "tackles_won": 0.5807, "tackles": 0.7183, "clearances": 1.1935, "blocks": 0.1545, "big_chances_created": 0.2925, "big_chances_missed": 0.2781, "xgot": 0.2606, "offsides": 0.2985, "ball_carries": 6.0661, "total_progression": 14.5905, "progressive_carries": 0.767, "shots_off_target": 1.133, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7165, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2646, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0515, "finishing_factor": 1.0704, "creation_factor": 0.8011, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0515, "provider_weight": 0.0424, "squad_weight_total": 0.9183, "weight_share": 0.0461, "creation_factor": 0.8011, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.2296, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2296, "runner_up": "Denis Suárez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1582, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Toni Martínez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Denis Suárez": { "player_id": 138383, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 176, "market_value": 1100000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1828, "assist_rate": 0.1218, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0867, "goal_rate": 0.0595, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9235, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 43, "possession_lost": 12.0196, "dispossessed": 0.6464, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.059, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7579, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.285, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.083, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1671, "finishing_factor": 0.9095, "creation_factor": 0.8655, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.208, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1075, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1615, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2808, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3698, "expected_assists": 0.1374, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0437, "expected_assists": 0.0824, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0502, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083578, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0338, "expected_assists": 0.0549, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3706, "combined_rank_score": 1661.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 2878.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9235, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Denis Suárez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jean-Ricner Bellegarde", "ranking": 3701 }, { "player_name": "Kervin Arriaga", "ranking": 3702 }, { "player_name": "Bryan Gil", "ranking": 3703 }, { "player_name": "Taiwo Awoniyi", "ranking": 3704 }, { "player_name": "Ismail Jakobs", "ranking": 3705 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ernest Muçi", "ranking": 3707 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Suazo", "ranking": 3708 }, { "player_name": "İrfan Can Kahveci", "ranking": 3709 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Beltrán", "ranking": 3710 }, { "player_name": "Niclas Eliasson", "ranking": 3711 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.762, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 36, "data_confidence": 0.762, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9975, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 105.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.86, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.08 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 36 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Alavés, rel: 0.08, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5926, "expected_assists": 0.1489, "assists": 0.1229, "assist_rate": 0.1229, "expected_goals": 0.0931, "goals": 0.0791, "goal_rate": 0.0791, "shots_on_target": 0.295, "total_shots": 0.9895, "rating": 6.9235, "minutes": 70.31, "total_pass": 30.1374, "accurate_pass": 24.4065, "duels_won": 2.9476, "total_long_balls": 2.4406, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9223, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5352, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6615, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6021, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.7449, "crosses_total": 4.2305, "crosses_accurate": 1.2722, "touches": 43.3274, "possession_lost": 12.0497, "dispossessed": 0.648, "duels_lost": 3.5938, "aerial_won": 0.1311, "aerial_lost": 0.3341, "interceptions": 0.074, "tackles_won": 0.6889, "tackles": 1.133, "clearances": 0.243, "total_contest": 1.3859, "won_contest": 0.5092, "challenges_lost": 0.9151, "fouls": 0.8199, "fouls_drawn": 1.1743, "blocks": 0.0532, "big_chances_created": 0.0367, "big_chances_missed": 0.1308, "xgot": 0.0634, "ball_carries": 13.0956, "total_progression": 53.0481, "progressive_carries": 1.021, "shots_off_target": 0.6945 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 57.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.3209, "creative_index": 0.6212, "expectedGoals": 0.0504, "expectedAssists": 0.1015, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.1356 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.592556118965149, "model_output": 1.5926, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1262 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1216 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0883 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0934 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0685 } ], "others": 0.2084, "total": 1.5926, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.133092 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.113433 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.074988 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.073656 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.050749 } ], "others_margin": 0.140238 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.14890159666538239, "model_output": 0.1489, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0066 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0052 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0044 } ], "others": 0.0212, "total": 0.1489, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.155031 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.107247 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.057553 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.043044 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.035197 } ], "others_margin": 0.153507 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.12293621897697449, "model_output": 0.1229, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0082 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0041 } ], "others": 0.0067, "total": 0.1229, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.123394 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.080511 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.075936 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.065331 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.034643 } ], "others_margin": 0.055788 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.09312637150287628, "model_output": 0.0931, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0088 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0087 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0056 } ], "others": -0.0127, "total": 0.0931, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.140808 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.135415 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.089622 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.080918 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.051739 } ], "others_margin": -0.127288 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07914870977401733, "model_output": 0.0791, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0097 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0079 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0065 } ], "others": -0.0179, "total": 0.0791, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.189135 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.113734 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.091258 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.091197 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.069017 } ], "others_margin": -0.203568 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2950223684310913, "model_output": 0.295, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0846 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0352 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0243 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0077 } ], "others": -0.0124, "total": 0.295, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.30278 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.13721 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.084802 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.052821 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.024773 } ], "others_margin": -0.040944 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9895458221435547, "model_output": 0.9895, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2704 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1459 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0802 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0317 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0262 } ], "others": -0.0146, "total": 0.9895, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.270376 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.145917 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.080196 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.031742 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.026194 } ], "others_margin": -0.014592 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.923543930053711, "model_output": 6.9235, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0323 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0313 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.007 } ], "others": 0.0283, "total": 6.9235, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.032276 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.031347 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020259 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.009951 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.007048 } ], "others_margin": 0.028406 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5886, "expected_assists": 0.1485, "assists": 0.1226, "assist_rate": 0.1226, "expected_goals": 0.0929, "goals": 0.079, "goal_rate": 0.079, "shots_on_target": 0.2943, "total_shots": 0.9871, "rating": 6.9235, "minutes": 70.31, "total_pass": 30.0621, "accurate_pass": 24.3455, "duels_won": 2.9402, "total_long_balls": 2.4345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.92, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6373, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.708, "crosses_total": 4.2199, "crosses_accurate": 1.269, "touches": 43.2191, "possession_lost": 12.0196, "dispossessed": 0.6464, "duels_lost": 3.5848, "aerial_won": 0.1308, "aerial_lost": 0.3333, "interceptions": 0.0738, "tackles_won": 0.6872, "tackles": 1.1302, "clearances": 0.2424, "total_contest": 1.3824, "won_contest": 0.5079, "challenges_lost": 0.9128, "fouls": 0.8179, "fouls_drawn": 1.1714, "blocks": 0.0531, "big_chances_created": 0.0366, "big_chances_missed": 0.1305, "xgot": 0.0632, "ball_carries": 13.0629, "total_progression": 52.9155, "progressive_carries": 1.0184, "shots_off_target": 0.6928 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1100000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0063)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5886, "expected_assists": 0.1485, "assists": 0.1218, "assist_rate": 0.1218, "expected_goals": 0.0929, "goals": 0.0785, "goal_rate": 0.0785, "shots_on_target": 0.2967, "total_shots": 0.9851, "rating": 6.9235, "minutes": 70.31, "total_pass": 30.0621, "accurate_pass": 24.3455, "duels_won": 2.9402, "total_long_balls": 2.4345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.92, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6373, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.708, "crosses_total": 4.2509, "crosses_accurate": 1.269, "touches": 43.2191, "possession_lost": 12.0196, "dispossessed": 0.6464, "duels_lost": 3.5848, "aerial_won": 0.1308, "aerial_lost": 0.3333, "interceptions": 0.0733, "tackles_won": 0.687, "tackles": 1.1302, "clearances": 0.2424, "total_contest": 1.3824, "won_contest": 0.5079, "challenges_lost": 0.9128, "fouls": 0.8251, "fouls_drawn": 1.1681, "blocks": 0.0531, "big_chances_created": 0.0366, "big_chances_missed": 0.1305, "xgot": 0.0632, "ball_carries": 13.0629, "total_progression": 52.9155, "progressive_carries": 1.0184, "shots_off_target": 0.6928 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0063, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7812, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 4.2199, "after": 4.2509 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8179, "after": 0.8251 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5886, "expected_assists": 0.1485, "assists": 0.1218, "assist_rate": 0.1218, "expected_goals": 0.0929, "goals": 0.0785, "goal_rate": 0.0785, "shots_on_target": 0.2967, "total_shots": 0.9895, "rating": 6.9235, "minutes": 70.31, "total_pass": 30.0621, "accurate_pass": 24.3455, "duels_won": 2.9402, "total_long_balls": 2.4345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.92, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6373, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.708, "crosses_total": 4.2509, "crosses_accurate": 1.269, "touches": 43.2191, "possession_lost": 12.0196, "dispossessed": 0.6464, "duels_lost": 3.5848, "aerial_won": 0.1308, "aerial_lost": 0.3333, "interceptions": 0.0733, "tackles_won": 0.687, "tackles": 1.1302, "clearances": 0.2424, "total_contest": 1.3824, "won_contest": 0.5079, "challenges_lost": 0.9128, "fouls": 0.8251, "fouls_drawn": 1.1681, "blocks": 0.0531, "big_chances_created": 0.0366, "big_chances_missed": 0.1305, "xgot": 0.0632, "ball_carries": 13.0629, "total_progression": 52.9155, "progressive_carries": 1.0184, "shots_off_target": 0.6928 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5886, "expected_assists": 0.1485, "assists": 0.1218, "assist_rate": 0.1218, "expected_goals": 0.0704, "goals": 0.0595, "goal_rate": 0.0595, "shots_on_target": 0.2249, "total_shots": 0.75, "rating": 6.9235, "minutes": 70.31, "total_pass": 30.0621, "accurate_pass": 24.3455, "duels_won": 2.9402, "total_long_balls": 2.4345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.92, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6373, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.708, "crosses_total": 4.2509, "crosses_accurate": 1.269, "touches": 43.2191, "possession_lost": 12.0196, "dispossessed": 0.6464, "duels_lost": 3.5848, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3333, "interceptions": 0.0733, "tackles_won": 0.687, "tackles": 1.1302, "clearances": 0.2424, "total_contest": 1.3824, "won_contest": 0.5079, "challenges_lost": 0.9128, "fouls": 0.8251, "fouls_drawn": 1.1681, "blocks": 0.0531, "big_chances_created": 0.0366, "big_chances_missed": 0.0989, "xgot": 0.0479, "ball_carries": 13.0629, "total_progression": 52.9155, "progressive_carries": 1.0184, "shots_off_target": 0.5251, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7579, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.285, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.285, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.7579, "skill_edge": -0.1767, "height_edge": 0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.8301, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Giuliano Simeone", "market_value": 44000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8301 } ], "xg_override": 0.0704 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.1308, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9895, "after": 0.75 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6928, "after": 0.5251 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2967, "after": 0.2249 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1305, "after": 0.0989 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0929, "after": 0.0704 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0785, "after": 0.0595 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0632, "after": 0.0479 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.16 (squad xG sum 0.9447, xG scale 1.2311, xA scale 1.2311, team xA 0.90 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5886, "expected_assists": 0.1828, "assist_rate": 0.1218, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0867, "goal_rate": 0.0595, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2249, "total_shots": 0.75, "rating": 6.9235, "minutes": 70.31, "total_pass": 30.0621, "accurate_pass": 24.3455, "duels_won": 2.9402, "total_long_balls": 2.4345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.92, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6373, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.708, "crosses_total": 4.2509, "crosses_accurate": 1.269, "touches": 43.2191, "possession_lost": 12.0196, "dispossessed": 0.6464, "duels_lost": 3.5848, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3333, "interceptions": 0.0733, "tackles_won": 0.687, "tackles": 1.1302, "clearances": 0.2424, "total_contest": 1.3824, "won_contest": 0.5079, "challenges_lost": 0.9128, "fouls": 0.8251, "fouls_drawn": 1.1681, "blocks": 0.0531, "big_chances_created": 0.0366, "big_chances_missed": 0.0989, "xgot": 0.059, "ball_carries": 13.0629, "total_progression": 52.9155, "progressive_carries": 1.0184, "shots_off_target": 0.5251, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7579, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.285, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9095, "creation_factor": 0.8655 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.163, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9447, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7333, "team_expected_assists": 0.9028, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7763, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2311, "xa_scale": 1.2311, "opponent_lambda": 2.713, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0704, "after": 0.0867 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1485, "after": 0.1828 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5886, "expected_assists": 0.1828, "assist_rate": 0.1218, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0867, "goal_rate": 0.0595, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2249, "total_shots": 0.75, "rating": 6.9235, "minutes": 70.31, "total_pass": 30.0621, "accurate_pass": 24.3455, "duels_won": 2.9402, "total_long_balls": 2.4345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.92, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6373, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.708, "crosses_total": 4.2509, "crosses_accurate": 1.269, "touches": 43.2191, "possession_lost": 12.0196, "dispossessed": 0.6464, "duels_lost": 3.5848, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3333, "interceptions": 0.0733, "tackles_won": 0.687, "tackles": 1.1302, "clearances": 0.2424, "total_contest": 1.3824, "won_contest": 0.5079, "challenges_lost": 0.9128, "fouls": 0.8251, "fouls_drawn": 1.1681, "blocks": 0.0531, "big_chances_created": 0.0366, "big_chances_missed": 0.0989, "xgot": 0.059, "ball_carries": 13.0629, "total_progression": 52.9155, "progressive_carries": 1.0184, "shots_off_target": 0.5251, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7579, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.285, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9095, "creation_factor": 0.8655, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3706, "fifa_rank": 2878.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5886, "expected_assists": 0.1828, "assist_rate": 0.1218, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0867, "goal_rate": 0.0595, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2249, "total_shots": 0.75, "rating": 6.9235, "minutes": 70.31, "total_pass": 30.0621, "accurate_pass": 24.3455, "duels_won": 2.9402, "total_long_balls": 2.4345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.92, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6373, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.708, "crosses_total": 4.2509, "crosses_accurate": 1.269, "touches": 43.2191, "possession_lost": 12.0196, "dispossessed": 0.6464, "duels_lost": 3.5848, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3333, "interceptions": 0.0733, "tackles_won": 0.687, "tackles": 1.1302, "clearances": 0.2424, "total_contest": 1.3824, "won_contest": 0.5079, "challenges_lost": 0.9128, "fouls": 0.8251, "fouls_drawn": 1.1681, "blocks": 0.0531, "big_chances_created": 0.0366, "big_chances_missed": 0.0989, "xgot": 0.059, "ball_carries": 13.0629, "total_progression": 52.9155, "progressive_carries": 1.0184, "shots_off_target": 0.5251, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7579, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.285, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.083, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9095, "creation_factor": 0.8655, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.083, "scorer_weight": 0.0789, "squad_weight_total": 1.2116, "weight_share": 0.0651, "finishing_factor": 0.9095, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.329, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.329, "runner_up": "Mariano Díaz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2236 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5886, "expected_assists": 0.1828, "assist_rate": 0.1218, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0867, "goal_rate": 0.0595, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2249, "total_shots": 0.75, "rating": 6.9235, "minutes": 70.31, "total_pass": 30.0621, "accurate_pass": 24.3455, "duels_won": 2.9402, "total_long_balls": 2.4345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.92, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6373, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.708, "crosses_total": 4.2509, "crosses_accurate": 1.269, "touches": 43.2191, "possession_lost": 12.0196, "dispossessed": 0.6464, "duels_lost": 3.5848, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3333, "interceptions": 0.0733, "tackles_won": 0.687, "tackles": 1.1302, "clearances": 0.2424, "total_contest": 1.3824, "won_contest": 0.5079, "challenges_lost": 0.9128, "fouls": 0.8251, "fouls_drawn": 1.1681, "blocks": 0.0531, "big_chances_created": 0.0366, "big_chances_missed": 0.0989, "xgot": 0.059, "ball_carries": 13.0629, "total_progression": 52.9155, "progressive_carries": 1.0184, "shots_off_target": 0.5251, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7579, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.285, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.083, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1671, "finishing_factor": 0.9095, "creation_factor": 0.8655, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1671, "provider_weight": 0.1582, "squad_weight_total": 0.9183, "weight_share": 0.1723, "creation_factor": 0.8655, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.2296, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2296, "runner_up": "Denis Suárez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1582, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Toni Martínez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Antonio Blanco": { "player_id": 855832, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 176, "market_value": 9700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0826, "assist_rate": 0.0692, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0623, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8451, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 55, "possession_lost": 9.4278, "dispossessed": 0.9124, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0203, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.825, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.301, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0604, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0793, "finishing_factor": 0.999, "creation_factor": 1.0179, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 5, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0841, "expected_assists": 0.0948, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 54, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0305, "expected_assists": 0.089, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0741, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2105, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 37, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0164, "expected_assists": 0.277, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 4, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2382, "combined_rank_score": 863.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 481.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8722, "sofascore_appearances": 36.0, "fifa_rank": 1245.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8451, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Antonio Blanco", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Douglas Luiz", "ranking": 2377 }, { "player_name": "Bayron Oyarzo", "ranking": 2378 }, { "player_name": "Ignacio Mesías", "ranking": 2379 }, { "player_name": "Virgiliu Postolachi", "ranking": 2380 }, { "player_name": "Jung Se-jun", "ranking": 2381 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Gorka Guruzeta", "ranking": 2383 }, { "player_name": "Alfon González", "ranking": 2384 }, { "player_name": "Rashid Abubakar", "ranking": 2385 }, { "player_name": "Fredrik André Bjørkan", "ranking": 2386 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Escobar", "ranking": 2387 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 43, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 43, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0004, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 269.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.34, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 43 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Alavés, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6972, "expected_assists": 0.0671, "assists": 0.0701, "assist_rate": 0.0701, "expected_goals": 0.0612, "goals": 0.062, "goal_rate": 0.062, "shots_on_target": 0.2547, "total_shots": 0.8592, "rating": 6.8451, "minutes": 85.6, "total_pass": 40.075, "accurate_pass": 34.269, "duels_won": 4.0548, "total_long_balls": 4.5372, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7765, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0003, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.5954, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0747, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.6737, "crosses_total": 1.1598, "crosses_accurate": 0.4229, "touches": 54.9155, "possession_lost": 9.424, "dispossessed": 0.912, "duels_lost": 5.4351, "aerial_won": 0.3306, "aerial_lost": 0.5062, "interceptions": 1.6825, "tackles_won": 1.0237, "tackles": 2.4419, "clearances": 1.0076, "total_contest": 0.8462, "won_contest": 0.337, "challenges_lost": 1.7058, "fouls": 1.8028, "fouls_drawn": 0.9516, "blocks": 0.2196, "big_chances_created": 0.0425, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.02, "ball_carries": 10.7631, "total_progression": 24.3566, "progressive_carries": 0.177, "shots_off_target": 0.6045 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.8943, "creative_index": 0.1848, "expectedGoals": 0.0357, "expectedAssists": 0.0426, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.1019 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.697162926197052, "model_output": 0.6972, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1233 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0873 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0525 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0458 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0331 } ], "others": -0.0936, "total": 0.6972, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.130283 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.090452 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.058633 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.054089 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": -0.040983 } ], "others_margin": -0.126046 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06707660108804703, "model_output": 0.0671, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.003 } ], "others": -0.0155, "total": 0.0671, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131353 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.119557 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.044088 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.042794 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.036746 } ], "others_margin": -0.207533 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07013668864965439, "model_output": 0.0701, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0073 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0053 } ], "others": -0.009, "total": 0.0701, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.101123 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.086754 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.082867 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.078327 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.065276 } ], "others_margin": -0.1198 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.06123953312635422, "model_output": 0.0612, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0028 } ], "others": -0.006, "total": 0.0612, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.20076 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132254 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.121157 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.107653 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.040009 } ], "others_margin": -0.095718 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.06197969615459442, "model_output": 0.062, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0073 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0046 } ], "others": -0.0079, "total": 0.062, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.13963 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.122153 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.111243 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.102733 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.063629 } ], "others_margin": -0.120612 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2547452449798584, "model_output": 0.2547, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.039 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0389 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0425, "total": 0.2547, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.128111 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12796 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.079485 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.039433 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.03332 } ], "others_margin": -0.154702 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8592217564582825, "model_output": 0.8592, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1358 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0604 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0443 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0257 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.0233 } ], "others": -0.1134, "total": 0.8592, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.135811 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.060435 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.044255 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.025718 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": -0.023299 } ], "others_margin": -0.113347 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.845084190368652, "model_output": 6.8451, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0314 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0272 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0337, "total": 6.8451, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.031436 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.027238 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.019479 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017929 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.008716 } ], "others_margin": -0.033769 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 42, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0004, quality 0.519)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6974, "expected_assists": 0.0671, "assists": 0.0702, "assist_rate": 0.0702, "expected_goals": 0.0613, "goals": 0.062, "goal_rate": 0.062, "shots_on_target": 0.2548, "total_shots": 0.8596, "rating": 6.8451, "minutes": 85.6, "total_pass": 40.091, "accurate_pass": 34.2827, "duels_won": 4.0564, "total_long_balls": 4.539, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7776, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0083, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6028, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0827, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.68, "crosses_total": 1.1603, "crosses_accurate": 0.4231, "touches": 54.9375, "possession_lost": 9.4278, "dispossessed": 0.9124, "duels_lost": 5.4373, "aerial_won": 0.3307, "aerial_lost": 0.5064, "interceptions": 1.6832, "tackles_won": 1.0241, "tackles": 2.4429, "clearances": 1.008, "total_contest": 0.8465, "won_contest": 0.3371, "challenges_lost": 1.7065, "fouls": 1.8035, "fouls_drawn": 0.952, "blocks": 0.2197, "big_chances_created": 0.0425, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.02, "ball_carries": 10.7674, "total_progression": 24.3663, "progressive_carries": 0.1771, "shots_off_target": 0.6047 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9700000, "quality_factor": 0.5189, "boost_factor": 1.0004, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0135)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6974, "expected_assists": 0.0671, "assists": 0.0692, "assist_rate": 0.0692, "expected_goals": 0.0613, "goals": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.0612, "shots_on_target": 0.2513, "total_shots": 0.8652, "rating": 6.8451, "minutes": 85.6, "total_pass": 40.091, "accurate_pass": 34.2827, "duels_won": 4.0564, "total_long_balls": 4.539, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7776, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0083, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6028, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0827, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.68, "crosses_total": 1.1661, "crosses_accurate": 0.4231, "touches": 54.9375, "possession_lost": 9.4278, "dispossessed": 0.9124, "duels_lost": 5.4373, "aerial_won": 0.3307, "aerial_lost": 0.5064, "interceptions": 1.6948, "tackles_won": 1.0274, "tackles": 2.4429, "clearances": 1.008, "total_contest": 0.8465, "won_contest": 0.3371, "challenges_lost": 1.7065, "fouls": 1.8177, "fouls_drawn": 0.9477, "blocks": 0.2197, "big_chances_created": 0.0425, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.02, "ball_carries": 10.7674, "total_progression": 24.3663, "progressive_carries": 0.1771, "shots_off_target": 0.6047 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0135, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9511, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.8035, "after": 1.8177 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.6832, "after": 1.6948 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.1603, "after": 1.1661 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8596, "after": 0.8652 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6974, "expected_assists": 0.0671, "assists": 0.0692, "assist_rate": 0.0692, "expected_goals": 0.0613, "goals": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.0612, "shots_on_target": 0.2513, "total_shots": 0.8652, "rating": 6.8451, "minutes": 85.6, "total_pass": 40.091, "accurate_pass": 34.2827, "duels_won": 4.0564, "total_long_balls": 4.539, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7776, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0083, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6028, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0827, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.68, "crosses_total": 1.1661, "crosses_accurate": 0.4231, "touches": 54.9375, "possession_lost": 9.4278, "dispossessed": 0.9124, "duels_lost": 5.4373, "aerial_won": 0.3307, "aerial_lost": 0.5064, "interceptions": 1.6948, "tackles_won": 1.0274, "tackles": 2.4429, "clearances": 1.008, "total_contest": 0.8465, "won_contest": 0.3371, "challenges_lost": 1.7065, "fouls": 1.8177, "fouls_drawn": 0.9477, "blocks": 0.2197, "big_chances_created": 0.0425, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.02, "ball_carries": 10.7674, "total_progression": 24.3663, "progressive_carries": 0.1771, "shots_off_target": 0.6047 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6974, "expected_assists": 0.0671, "assists": 0.0692, "assist_rate": 0.0692, "expected_goals": 0.0506, "goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "shots_on_target": 0.2073, "total_shots": 0.7138, "rating": 6.8451, "minutes": 85.6, "total_pass": 40.091, "accurate_pass": 34.2827, "duels_won": 4.0564, "total_long_balls": 4.539, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7776, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0083, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6028, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0827, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.68, "crosses_total": 1.1661, "crosses_accurate": 0.4231, "touches": 54.9375, "possession_lost": 9.4278, "dispossessed": 0.9124, "duels_lost": 5.4373, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5064, "interceptions": 1.6948, "tackles_won": 1.0274, "tackles": 2.4429, "clearances": 1.008, "total_contest": 0.8465, "won_contest": 0.3371, "challenges_lost": 1.7065, "fouls": 1.8177, "fouls_drawn": 0.9477, "blocks": 0.2197, "big_chances_created": 0.0425, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0165, "ball_carries": 10.7674, "total_progression": 24.3663, "progressive_carries": 0.1771, "shots_off_target": 0.4989, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.825, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.301, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.301, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.825, "skill_edge": -0.131, "height_edge": 0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.5389, "defender_skill": 0.8301, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Giuliano Simeone", "market_value": 44000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8301 } ], "xg_override": 0.0506 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3307, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8652, "after": 0.7138 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6047, "after": 0.4989 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2513, "after": 0.2073 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0613, "after": 0.0506 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0612, "after": 0.0505 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.16 (squad xG sum 0.9447, xG scale 1.2311, xA scale 1.2311, team xA 0.90 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6974, "expected_assists": 0.0826, "assist_rate": 0.0692, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0623, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2073, "total_shots": 0.7138, "rating": 6.8451, "minutes": 85.6, "total_pass": 40.091, "accurate_pass": 34.2827, "duels_won": 4.0564, "total_long_balls": 4.539, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7776, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0083, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6028, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0827, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.68, "crosses_total": 1.1661, "crosses_accurate": 0.4231, "touches": 54.9375, "possession_lost": 9.4278, "dispossessed": 0.9124, "duels_lost": 5.4373, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5064, "interceptions": 1.6948, "tackles_won": 1.0274, "tackles": 2.4429, "clearances": 1.008, "total_contest": 0.8465, "won_contest": 0.3371, "challenges_lost": 1.7065, "fouls": 1.8177, "fouls_drawn": 0.9477, "blocks": 0.2197, "big_chances_created": 0.0425, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0203, "ball_carries": 10.7674, "total_progression": 24.3663, "progressive_carries": 0.1771, "shots_off_target": 0.4989, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.825, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.301, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.999, "creation_factor": 1.0179 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.163, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9447, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7333, "team_expected_assists": 0.9028, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7763, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2311, "xa_scale": 1.2311, "opponent_lambda": 2.713, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0506, "after": 0.0623 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0671, "after": 0.0826 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6974, "expected_assists": 0.0826, "assist_rate": 0.0692, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0623, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2073, "total_shots": 0.7138, "rating": 6.8451, "minutes": 85.6, "total_pass": 40.091, "accurate_pass": 34.2827, "duels_won": 4.0564, "total_long_balls": 4.539, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7776, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0083, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6028, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0827, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.68, "crosses_total": 1.1661, "crosses_accurate": 0.4231, "touches": 54.9375, "possession_lost": 9.4278, "dispossessed": 0.9124, "duels_lost": 5.4373, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5064, "interceptions": 1.6948, "tackles_won": 1.0274, "tackles": 2.4429, "clearances": 1.008, "total_contest": 0.8465, "won_contest": 0.3371, "challenges_lost": 1.7065, "fouls": 1.8177, "fouls_drawn": 0.9477, "blocks": 0.2197, "big_chances_created": 0.0425, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0203, "ball_carries": 10.7674, "total_progression": 24.3663, "progressive_carries": 0.1771, "shots_off_target": 0.4989, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.825, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.301, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.999, "creation_factor": 1.0179, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2382, "fifa_rank": 1245.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6974, "expected_assists": 0.0826, "assist_rate": 0.0692, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0623, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2073, "total_shots": 0.7138, "rating": 6.8451, "minutes": 85.6, "total_pass": 40.091, "accurate_pass": 34.2827, "duels_won": 4.0564, "total_long_balls": 4.539, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7776, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0083, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6028, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0827, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.68, "crosses_total": 1.1661, "crosses_accurate": 0.4231, "touches": 54.9375, "possession_lost": 9.4278, "dispossessed": 0.9124, "duels_lost": 5.4373, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5064, "interceptions": 1.6948, "tackles_won": 1.0274, "tackles": 2.4429, "clearances": 1.008, "total_contest": 0.8465, "won_contest": 0.3371, "challenges_lost": 1.7065, "fouls": 1.8177, "fouls_drawn": 0.9477, "blocks": 0.2197, "big_chances_created": 0.0425, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0203, "ball_carries": 10.7674, "total_progression": 24.3663, "progressive_carries": 0.1771, "shots_off_target": 0.4989, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.825, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.301, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0604, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.999, "creation_factor": 1.0179, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0604, "scorer_weight": 0.0622, "squad_weight_total": 1.2116, "weight_share": 0.0514, "finishing_factor": 0.999, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.329, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.329, "runner_up": "Mariano Díaz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2236 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6974, "expected_assists": 0.0826, "assist_rate": 0.0692, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0623, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2073, "total_shots": 0.7138, "rating": 6.8451, "minutes": 85.6, "total_pass": 40.091, "accurate_pass": 34.2827, "duels_won": 4.0564, "total_long_balls": 4.539, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7776, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0083, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6028, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0827, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.68, "crosses_total": 1.1661, "crosses_accurate": 0.4231, "touches": 54.9375, "possession_lost": 9.4278, "dispossessed": 0.9124, "duels_lost": 5.4373, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5064, "interceptions": 1.6948, "tackles_won": 1.0274, "tackles": 2.4429, "clearances": 1.008, "total_contest": 0.8465, "won_contest": 0.3371, "challenges_lost": 1.7065, "fouls": 1.8177, "fouls_drawn": 0.9477, "blocks": 0.2197, "big_chances_created": 0.0425, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0203, "ball_carries": 10.7674, "total_progression": 24.3663, "progressive_carries": 0.1771, "shots_off_target": 0.4989, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.825, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.301, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0604, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0793, "finishing_factor": 0.999, "creation_factor": 1.0179, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0793, "provider_weight": 0.0841, "squad_weight_total": 0.9183, "weight_share": 0.0916, "creation_factor": 1.0179, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.2296, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2296, "runner_up": "Denis Suárez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1582, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Toni Martínez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Pablo Ibáñez": { "player_id": 1084381, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 179, "market_value": 4099999, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0632, "assist_rate": 0.0672, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1096, "goal_rate": 0.0873, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8225, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 10.5598, "dispossessed": 1.2944, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1296, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7883, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.306, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1038, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0612, "finishing_factor": 0.9878, "creation_factor": 1.157, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3934, "expected_assists": 0.0358, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2584, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.066, "expected_assists": 0.0519, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 23, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2479, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3981, "combined_rank_score": 1953.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 391.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.95, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 3516.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8225, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pablo Ibáñez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Patrick Sequeira", "ranking": 3976 }, { "player_name": "Javi Rueda", "ranking": 3977 }, { "player_name": "Freddie Potts", "ranking": 3978 }, { "player_name": "Chupe", "ranking": 3979 }, { "player_name": "Bigas", "ranking": 3980 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jonny", "ranking": 3982 }, { "player_name": "Mohamed Belloumi", "ranking": 3983 }, { "player_name": "Jack Hendry", "ranking": 3984 }, { "player_name": "Areso", "ranking": 3985 }, { "player_name": "Gorosabel", "ranking": 3986 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 44, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9983, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.67, "shots_on_target_pct": 20.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 44 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Alavés, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6305, "expected_assists": 0.0514, "assists": 0.0682, "assist_rate": 0.0682, "expected_goals": 0.1131, "goals": 0.1123, "goal_rate": 0.1123, "shots_on_target": 0.3288, "total_shots": 1.0356, "rating": 6.8225, "minutes": 78.31, "total_pass": 28.3615, "accurate_pass": 22.8491, "duels_won": 5.196, "total_long_balls": 2.6318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9779, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1877, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8352, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0139, "crosses_total": 0.9799, "crosses_accurate": 0.0975, "touches": 45.2854, "possession_lost": 10.5778, "dispossessed": 1.2966, "duels_lost": 5.2247, "aerial_won": 0.871, "aerial_lost": 0.4515, "interceptions": 0.899, "tackles_won": 0.9016, "tackles": 1.6059, "clearances": 1.4719, "total_contest": 1.6271, "won_contest": 0.8257, "challenges_lost": 1.0091, "fouls": 1.6672, "fouls_drawn": 1.8935, "blocks": 0.1897, "big_chances_created": 0.0081, "big_chances_missed": 0.1433, "xgot": 0.1338, "ball_carries": 13.9854, "total_progression": 62.7702, "progressive_carries": 1.2649, "shots_off_target": 0.7068 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 21.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.1266, "creative_index": 0.1711, "expectedGoals": 0.1065, "expectedAssists": 0.0183, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2529 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6304536461830139, "model_output": 0.6305, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.105 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.1014 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0892 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0425 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0302 } ], "others": -0.0974, "total": 0.6305, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.112007 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.107967 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.105644 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.054608 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.040667 } ], "others_margin": -0.14362 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.05135274678468704, "model_output": 0.0514, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.009 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.003 } ], "others": -0.01, "total": 0.0514, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.235467 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124646 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.124431 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.050921 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.04687 } ], "others_margin": -0.179945 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.068248450756073, "model_output": 0.0682, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0075 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0032 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0032 } ], "others": -0.0128, "total": 0.0682, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.084222 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.071288 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.063656 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.040471 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.040447 } ], "others_margin": -0.171451 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.11310719698667526, "model_output": 0.1131, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0202 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0051 } ], "others": -0.0059, "total": 0.1131, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.194045 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.107206 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.069541 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.043906 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.043617 } ], "others_margin": -0.050921 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.11234729737043381, "model_output": 0.1123, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0091 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0092 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0098 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0094, "total": 0.1123, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.14053 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.10239 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.093131 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.090996 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.074912 } ], "others_margin": -0.080645 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.3287692666053772, "model_output": 0.3288, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0394 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0392 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0351 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0251 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0233 } ], "others": -0.0319, "total": 0.3288, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.129767 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129056 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.10287 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.067717 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.062676 } ], "others_margin": -0.09256 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0355818271636963, "model_output": 1.0356, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1412 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0551 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0438 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0425 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0225 } ], "others": -0.0198, "total": 1.0356, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.141194 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.055067 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.043754 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.042455 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.022507 } ], "others_margin": -0.019803 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.822461128234863, "model_output": 6.8225, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0078 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0067 } ], "others": -0.0117, "total": 6.8225, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028295 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018312 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010214 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.00778 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.006747 } ], "others_margin": -0.011652 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9983, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6294, "expected_assists": 0.0513, "assists": 0.0681, "assist_rate": 0.0681, "expected_goals": 0.1129, "goals": 0.1122, "goal_rate": 0.1122, "shots_on_target": 0.3282, "total_shots": 1.0338, "rating": 6.8225, "minutes": 78.31, "total_pass": 28.3133, "accurate_pass": 22.8103, "duels_won": 5.1872, "total_long_balls": 2.6273, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9762, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1687, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8185, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1446, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.9918, "crosses_total": 0.9782, "crosses_accurate": 0.0973, "touches": 45.2084, "possession_lost": 10.5598, "dispossessed": 1.2944, "duels_lost": 5.2158, "aerial_won": 0.8695, "aerial_lost": 0.4507, "interceptions": 0.8975, "tackles_won": 0.9001, "tackles": 1.6032, "clearances": 1.4694, "total_contest": 1.6243, "won_contest": 0.8243, "challenges_lost": 1.0074, "fouls": 1.6644, "fouls_drawn": 1.8903, "blocks": 0.1894, "big_chances_created": 0.0081, "big_chances_missed": 0.1431, "xgot": 0.1336, "ball_carries": 13.9616, "total_progression": 62.6635, "progressive_carries": 1.2627, "shots_off_target": 0.7056 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4099999, "quality_factor": 0.4511, "boost_factor": 0.9983, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0133)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6294, "expected_assists": 0.0513, "assists": 0.0672, "assist_rate": 0.0672, "expected_goals": 0.1129, "goals": 0.1107, "goal_rate": 0.1107, "shots_on_target": 0.3277, "total_shots": 1.0394, "rating": 6.8225, "minutes": 78.31, "total_pass": 28.3133, "accurate_pass": 22.8103, "duels_won": 5.1872, "total_long_balls": 2.6273, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9762, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1687, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8185, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1446, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.9918, "crosses_total": 0.9729, "crosses_accurate": 0.0973, "touches": 45.2084, "possession_lost": 10.5598, "dispossessed": 1.2944, "duels_lost": 5.2158, "aerial_won": 0.8695, "aerial_lost": 0.4507, "interceptions": 0.9048, "tackles_won": 0.8959, "tackles": 1.6032, "clearances": 1.4694, "total_contest": 1.6243, "won_contest": 0.8243, "challenges_lost": 1.0074, "fouls": 1.6577, "fouls_drawn": 1.8845, "blocks": 0.1894, "big_chances_created": 0.0081, "big_chances_missed": 0.1431, "xgot": 0.1336, "ball_carries": 13.9616, "total_progression": 62.6635, "progressive_carries": 1.2627, "shots_off_target": 0.7056 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0133, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8701, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.8975, "after": 0.9048 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.6644, "after": 1.6577 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.8903, "after": 1.8845 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0338, "after": 1.0394 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.9782, "after": 0.9729 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6294, "expected_assists": 0.0513, "assists": 0.0672, "assist_rate": 0.0672, "expected_goals": 0.1129, "goals": 0.1107, "goal_rate": 0.1107, "shots_on_target": 0.3277, "total_shots": 1.0394, "rating": 6.8225, "minutes": 78.31, "total_pass": 28.3133, "accurate_pass": 22.8103, "duels_won": 5.1872, "total_long_balls": 2.6273, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9762, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1687, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8185, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1446, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.9918, "crosses_total": 0.9729, "crosses_accurate": 0.0973, "touches": 45.2084, "possession_lost": 10.5598, "dispossessed": 1.2944, "duels_lost": 5.2158, "aerial_won": 0.8695, "aerial_lost": 0.4507, "interceptions": 0.9048, "tackles_won": 0.8959, "tackles": 1.6032, "clearances": 1.4694, "total_contest": 1.6243, "won_contest": 0.8243, "challenges_lost": 1.0074, "fouls": 1.6577, "fouls_drawn": 1.8845, "blocks": 0.1894, "big_chances_created": 0.0081, "big_chances_missed": 0.1431, "xgot": 0.1336, "ball_carries": 13.9616, "total_progression": 62.6635, "progressive_carries": 1.2627, "shots_off_target": 0.7056 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6294, "expected_assists": 0.0513, "assists": 0.0672, "assist_rate": 0.0672, "expected_goals": 0.089, "goals": 0.0873, "goal_rate": 0.0873, "shots_on_target": 0.2583, "total_shots": 0.8194, "rating": 6.8225, "minutes": 78.31, "total_pass": 28.3133, "accurate_pass": 22.8103, "duels_won": 5.1872, "total_long_balls": 2.6273, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9762, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1687, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8185, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1446, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.9918, "crosses_total": 0.9729, "crosses_accurate": 0.0973, "touches": 45.2084, "possession_lost": 10.5598, "dispossessed": 1.2944, "duels_lost": 5.2158, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4507, "interceptions": 0.9048, "tackles_won": 0.8959, "tackles": 1.6032, "clearances": 1.4694, "total_contest": 1.6243, "won_contest": 0.8243, "challenges_lost": 1.0074, "fouls": 1.6577, "fouls_drawn": 1.8845, "blocks": 0.1894, "big_chances_created": 0.0081, "big_chances_missed": 0.1128, "xgot": 0.1053, "ball_carries": 13.9616, "total_progression": 62.6635, "progressive_carries": 1.2627, "shots_off_target": 0.5562, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7883, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.306, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.306, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.7883, "skill_edge": -0.168, "height_edge": 0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.4567, "defender_skill": 0.8301, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Giuliano Simeone", "market_value": 44000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8301 } ], "xg_override": 0.089 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0394, "after": 0.8194 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7056, "after": 0.5562 }, { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.8695, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3277, "after": 0.2583 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1431, "after": 0.1128 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1336, "after": 0.1053 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1129, "after": 0.089 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1107, "after": 0.0873 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.16 (squad xG sum 0.9447, xG scale 1.2311, xA scale 1.2311, team xA 0.90 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6294, "expected_assists": 0.0632, "assist_rate": 0.0672, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1096, "goal_rate": 0.0873, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2583, "total_shots": 0.8194, "rating": 6.8225, "minutes": 78.31, "total_pass": 28.3133, "accurate_pass": 22.8103, "duels_won": 5.1872, "total_long_balls": 2.6273, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9762, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1687, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8185, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1446, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.9918, "crosses_total": 0.9729, "crosses_accurate": 0.0973, "touches": 45.2084, "possession_lost": 10.5598, "dispossessed": 1.2944, "duels_lost": 5.2158, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4507, "interceptions": 0.9048, "tackles_won": 0.8959, "tackles": 1.6032, "clearances": 1.4694, "total_contest": 1.6243, "won_contest": 0.8243, "challenges_lost": 1.0074, "fouls": 1.6577, "fouls_drawn": 1.8845, "blocks": 0.1894, "big_chances_created": 0.0081, "big_chances_missed": 0.1128, "xgot": 0.1296, "ball_carries": 13.9616, "total_progression": 62.6635, "progressive_carries": 1.2627, "shots_off_target": 0.5562, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7883, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.306, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9878, "creation_factor": 1.157 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.163, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9447, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7333, "team_expected_assists": 0.9028, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7763, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2311, "xa_scale": 1.2311, "opponent_lambda": 2.713, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.089, "after": 0.1096 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0513, "after": 0.0632 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6294, "expected_assists": 0.0632, "assist_rate": 0.0672, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1096, "goal_rate": 0.0873, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2583, "total_shots": 0.8194, "rating": 6.8225, "minutes": 78.31, "total_pass": 28.3133, "accurate_pass": 22.8103, "duels_won": 5.1872, "total_long_balls": 2.6273, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9762, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1687, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8185, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1446, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.9918, "crosses_total": 0.9729, "crosses_accurate": 0.0973, "touches": 45.2084, "possession_lost": 10.5598, "dispossessed": 1.2944, "duels_lost": 5.2158, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4507, "interceptions": 0.9048, "tackles_won": 0.8959, "tackles": 1.6032, "clearances": 1.4694, "total_contest": 1.6243, "won_contest": 0.8243, "challenges_lost": 1.0074, "fouls": 1.6577, "fouls_drawn": 1.8845, "blocks": 0.1894, "big_chances_created": 0.0081, "big_chances_missed": 0.1128, "xgot": 0.1296, "ball_carries": 13.9616, "total_progression": 62.6635, "progressive_carries": 1.2627, "shots_off_target": 0.5562, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7883, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.306, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9878, "creation_factor": 1.157, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3981, "fifa_rank": 3516.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6294, "expected_assists": 0.0632, "assist_rate": 0.0672, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1096, "goal_rate": 0.0873, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2583, "total_shots": 0.8194, "rating": 6.8225, "minutes": 78.31, "total_pass": 28.3133, "accurate_pass": 22.8103, "duels_won": 5.1872, "total_long_balls": 2.6273, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9762, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1687, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8185, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1446, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.9918, "crosses_total": 0.9729, "crosses_accurate": 0.0973, "touches": 45.2084, "possession_lost": 10.5598, "dispossessed": 1.2944, "duels_lost": 5.2158, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4507, "interceptions": 0.9048, "tackles_won": 0.8959, "tackles": 1.6032, "clearances": 1.4694, "total_contest": 1.6243, "won_contest": 0.8243, "challenges_lost": 1.0074, "fouls": 1.6577, "fouls_drawn": 1.8845, "blocks": 0.1894, "big_chances_created": 0.0081, "big_chances_missed": 0.1128, "xgot": 0.1296, "ball_carries": 13.9616, "total_progression": 62.6635, "progressive_carries": 1.2627, "shots_off_target": 0.5562, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7883, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.306, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1038, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9878, "creation_factor": 1.157, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1038, "scorer_weight": 0.1083, "squad_weight_total": 1.2116, "weight_share": 0.0894, "finishing_factor": 0.9878, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.329, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.329, "runner_up": "Mariano Díaz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2236 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6294, "expected_assists": 0.0632, "assist_rate": 0.0672, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1096, "goal_rate": 0.0873, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2583, "total_shots": 0.8194, "rating": 6.8225, "minutes": 78.31, "total_pass": 28.3133, "accurate_pass": 22.8103, "duels_won": 5.1872, "total_long_balls": 2.6273, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9762, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1687, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8185, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1446, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.9918, "crosses_total": 0.9729, "crosses_accurate": 0.0973, "touches": 45.2084, "possession_lost": 10.5598, "dispossessed": 1.2944, "duels_lost": 5.2158, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4507, "interceptions": 0.9048, "tackles_won": 0.8959, "tackles": 1.6032, "clearances": 1.4694, "total_contest": 1.6243, "won_contest": 0.8243, "challenges_lost": 1.0074, "fouls": 1.6577, "fouls_drawn": 1.8845, "blocks": 0.1894, "big_chances_created": 0.0081, "big_chances_missed": 0.1128, "xgot": 0.1296, "ball_carries": 13.9616, "total_progression": 62.6635, "progressive_carries": 1.2627, "shots_off_target": 0.5562, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7883, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.306, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Giuliano Simeone", "opponent_faced": "Giuliano Simeone", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1038, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0612, "finishing_factor": 0.9878, "creation_factor": 1.157, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0612, "provider_weight": 0.0731, "squad_weight_total": 0.9183, "weight_share": 0.0796, "creation_factor": 1.157, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.2296, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2296, "runner_up": "Denis Suárez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1582, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Toni Martínez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Abderrahman Rebbach": { "player_id": 1082968, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 176, "market_value": 2400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0645, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0788, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8256, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 12.3621, "dispossessed": 0.4154, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0896, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0421, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 77, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.658, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0625, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0758, "finishing_factor": 1.04, "creation_factor": 1.2246, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0607, "expected_assists": 0.0566, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0643, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0189, "expected_assists": 0.0275, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 27, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.017, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.039, "expected_assists": 0.1277, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.57, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0777, "expected_assists": 0.1484, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1659, "combined_rank_score": 944.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 673.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7241, "sofascore_appearances": 30.0, "fifa_rank": 1216.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8256, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Abderrahman Rebbach", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Khumoyun Sherbutaev", "ranking": 1654 }, { "player_name": "Kuvonchbek Khushvaktov", "ranking": 1655 }, { "player_name": "Florian Grillitsch", "ranking": 1656 }, { "player_name": "Zakaria Labyad", "ranking": 1657 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Odriozola", "ranking": 1658 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Petar Sučić", "ranking": 1660 }, { "player_name": "Giacomo Raspadori", "ranking": 1661 }, { "player_name": "Wataru Endo", "ranking": 1662 }, { "player_name": "Barış Alper Yılmaz", "ranking": 1663 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Soler", "ranking": 1664 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 37, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9976, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 37 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0799, "goals": 0.086, "goal_rate": 0.086, "shots_on_target": 0.327, "total_shots": 0.9576, "expected_assists": 0.0641, "key_pass": 0.6182, "rating": 6.8256, "minutes": 78.44, "total_pass": 23.2241, "accurate_pass": 18.5354, "duels_won": 5.2329, "total_long_balls": 2.3013, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9743, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4519, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.932, "crosses_total": 3.6707, "crosses_accurate": 0.5457, "touches": 46.8032, "possession_lost": 12.3918, "dispossessed": 0.4164, "duels_lost": 4.7189, "aerial_lost": 0.6923, "total_contest": 2.3332, "won_contest": 1.1915, "ball_recovery": 3.3747, "challenges_lost": 1.1325, "fouls": 1.509, "fouls_drawn": 1.2752, "assists": 0.0898, "assist_rate": 0.0898, "interceptions": 1.2951, "tackles_won": 1.263, "tackles": 2.031, "clearances": 1.2446, "blocks": 0.1543, "big_chances_created": 0.1528, "big_chances_missed": 0.0053, "xgot": 0.052, "offsides": 0.0949, "ball_carries": 12.5795, "total_progression": 76.7242, "progressive_carries": 1.9936, "shots_off_target": 0.6305 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0361, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 10.8223, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 7.4995, "accuratePass": 17.7636, "totalShots": 0.7437 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.07987383008003235, "model_output": 0.0799, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0454 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0409 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0137 } ], "others": -0.0562, "total": 0.0799, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.259109 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.236132 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.149407 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.111405 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.095563 } ], "others_margin": -0.533275 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.0860154777765274, "model_output": 0.086, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0499 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0495 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0289 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0241 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0504, "total": 0.086, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.21921 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.217295 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.15245 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.148144 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.101962 } ], "others_margin": -0.461722 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.3270411193370819, "model_output": 0.327, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1481 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0959 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0569 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.044 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0388 } ], "others": -0.1225, "total": 0.327, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.243542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.15085 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.101484 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.086317 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.082724 } ], "others_margin": -0.318042 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9575636982917786, "model_output": 0.9576, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3537 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2103 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.095 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0544 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0472 } ], "others": -0.3679, "total": 0.9576, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.353658 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.210312 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.095015 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.054437 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.04724 } ], "others_margin": -0.367797 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.0641452819108963, "model_output": 0.0641, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0052 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0042 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0029 } ], "others": 0.0006, "total": 0.0641, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.175132 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.127935 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.080276 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.064631 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.044722 } ], "others_margin": 0.011023 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6182337999343872, "model_output": 0.6182, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.182 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0587 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0511 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0345 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0299 } ], "others": -0.0636, "total": 0.6182, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.239006 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.071105 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.066256 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.047355 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.042966 } ], "others_margin": -0.097653 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.825582504272461, "model_output": 6.8256, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0587 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0119 } ], "others": 0.012, "total": 6.8256, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058733 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.015608 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.015471 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.011935 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.011871 } ], "others_margin": 0.011963 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9976, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0797, "goals": 0.0858, "goal_rate": 0.0858, "shots_on_target": 0.3263, "total_shots": 0.9553, "expected_assists": 0.064, "key_pass": 0.6168, "rating": 6.8256, "minutes": 78.44, "total_pass": 23.1684, "accurate_pass": 18.4909, "duels_won": 5.2203, "total_long_balls": 2.2958, "accurate_long_balls": 0.972, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4244, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.913, "crosses_total": 3.6619, "crosses_accurate": 0.5444, "touches": 46.6909, "possession_lost": 12.3621, "dispossessed": 0.4154, "duels_lost": 4.7076, "aerial_lost": 0.6906, "total_contest": 2.3276, "won_contest": 1.1886, "ball_recovery": 3.3666, "challenges_lost": 1.1298, "fouls": 1.5054, "fouls_drawn": 1.2721, "assists": 0.0896, "assist_rate": 0.0896, "interceptions": 1.292, "tackles_won": 1.26, "tackles": 2.0261, "clearances": 1.2416, "blocks": 0.1539, "big_chances_created": 0.1524, "big_chances_missed": 0.0053, "xgot": 0.0519, "offsides": 0.0947, "ball_carries": 12.5493, "total_progression": 76.5401, "progressive_carries": 1.9888, "shots_off_target": 0.629 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9976, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0797, "goals": 0.0858, "goal_rate": 0.0858, "shots_on_target": 0.3263, "total_shots": 0.9553, "expected_assists": 0.064, "key_pass": 0.6168, "rating": 6.8256, "minutes": 78.44, "total_pass": 23.1684, "accurate_pass": 18.4909, "duels_won": 5.2203, "total_long_balls": 2.2958, "accurate_long_balls": 0.972, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4244, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.913, "crosses_total": 3.6619, "crosses_accurate": 0.5444, "touches": 46.6909, "possession_lost": 12.3621, "dispossessed": 0.4154, "duels_lost": 4.7076, "aerial_lost": 0.6906, "total_contest": 2.3276, "won_contest": 1.1886, "ball_recovery": 3.3666, "challenges_lost": 1.1298, "fouls": 1.5054, "fouls_drawn": 1.2721, "assists": 0.0896, "assist_rate": 0.0896, "interceptions": 1.292, "tackles_won": 1.26, "tackles": 2.0261, "clearances": 1.2416, "blocks": 0.1539, "big_chances_created": 0.1524, "big_chances_missed": 0.0053, "xgot": 0.0519, "offsides": 0.0947, "ball_carries": 12.5493, "total_progression": 76.5401, "progressive_carries": 1.9888, "shots_off_target": 0.629 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0524, "goals": 0.0565, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "shots_on_target": 0.2147, "total_shots": 0.6286, "expected_assists": 0.064, "key_pass": 0.6168, "rating": 6.8256, "minutes": 78.44, "total_pass": 23.1684, "accurate_pass": 18.4909, "duels_won": 5.2203, "total_long_balls": 2.2958, "accurate_long_balls": 0.972, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4244, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.913, "crosses_total": 3.6619, "crosses_accurate": 0.5444, "touches": 46.6909, "possession_lost": 12.3621, "dispossessed": 0.4154, "duels_lost": 4.7076, "aerial_lost": 0.6906, "total_contest": 2.3276, "won_contest": 1.1886, "ball_recovery": 3.3666, "challenges_lost": 1.1298, "fouls": 1.5054, "fouls_drawn": 1.2721, "assists": 0.0896, "assist_rate": 0.0896, "interceptions": 1.292, "tackles_won": 1.26, "tackles": 2.0261, "clearances": 1.2416, "blocks": 0.1539, "big_chances_created": 0.1524, "big_chances_missed": 0.0035, "xgot": 0.0342, "offsides": 0.0947, "ball_carries": 12.5493, "total_progression": 76.5401, "progressive_carries": 1.9888, "shots_off_target": 0.4139, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.658, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.658, "skill_edge": -0.1806, "height_edge": -0.052, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.8388, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Dávid Hancko", "market_value": 36000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8168 }, { "player": "Marc Pubill", "market_value": 48000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8608 } ], "xg_override": 0.0524 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9553, "after": 0.6286 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.629, "after": 0.4139 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3263, "after": 0.2147 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0858, "after": 0.0565 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0797, "after": 0.0524 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0519, "after": 0.0342 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.16 (squad xG sum 0.9447, xG scale 1.2311, xA scale 1.2311, team xA 0.90 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0645, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2147, "total_shots": 0.6286, "expected_assists": 0.0788, "key_pass": 0.6168, "rating": 6.8256, "minutes": 78.44, "total_pass": 23.1684, "accurate_pass": 18.4909, "duels_won": 5.2203, "total_long_balls": 2.2958, "accurate_long_balls": 0.972, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4244, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.913, "crosses_total": 3.6619, "crosses_accurate": 0.5444, "touches": 46.6909, "possession_lost": 12.3621, "dispossessed": 0.4154, "duels_lost": 4.7076, "aerial_lost": 0.6906, "total_contest": 2.3276, "won_contest": 1.1886, "ball_recovery": 3.3666, "challenges_lost": 1.1298, "fouls": 1.5054, "fouls_drawn": 1.2721, "assist_rate": 0.0896, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.292, "tackles_won": 1.26, "tackles": 2.0261, "clearances": 1.2416, "blocks": 0.1539, "big_chances_created": 0.1524, "big_chances_missed": 0.0035, "xgot": 0.0421, "offsides": 0.0947, "ball_carries": 12.5493, "total_progression": 76.5401, "progressive_carries": 1.9888, "shots_off_target": 0.4139, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.658, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.04, "creation_factor": 1.2246 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.163, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9447, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7333, "team_expected_assists": 0.9028, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7763, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2311, "xa_scale": 1.2311, "opponent_lambda": 2.713, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0524, "after": 0.0645 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.064, "after": 0.0788 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0645, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2147, "total_shots": 0.6286, "expected_assists": 0.0788, "key_pass": 0.6168, "rating": 6.8256, "minutes": 78.44, "total_pass": 23.1684, "accurate_pass": 18.4909, "duels_won": 5.2203, "total_long_balls": 2.2958, "accurate_long_balls": 0.972, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4244, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.913, "crosses_total": 3.6619, "crosses_accurate": 0.5444, "touches": 46.6909, "possession_lost": 12.3621, "dispossessed": 0.4154, "duels_lost": 4.7076, "aerial_lost": 0.6906, "total_contest": 2.3276, "won_contest": 1.1886, "ball_recovery": 3.3666, "challenges_lost": 1.1298, "fouls": 1.5054, "fouls_drawn": 1.2721, "assist_rate": 0.0896, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.292, "tackles_won": 1.26, "tackles": 2.0261, "clearances": 1.2416, "blocks": 0.1539, "big_chances_created": 0.1524, "big_chances_missed": 0.0035, "xgot": 0.0421, "offsides": 0.0947, "ball_carries": 12.5493, "total_progression": 76.5401, "progressive_carries": 1.9888, "shots_off_target": 0.4139, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.658, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.04, "creation_factor": 1.2246, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1659, "fifa_rank": 1216.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0645, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2147, "total_shots": 0.6286, "expected_assists": 0.0788, "key_pass": 0.6168, "rating": 6.8256, "minutes": 78.44, "total_pass": 23.1684, "accurate_pass": 18.4909, "duels_won": 5.2203, "total_long_balls": 2.2958, "accurate_long_balls": 0.972, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4244, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.913, "crosses_total": 3.6619, "crosses_accurate": 0.5444, "touches": 46.6909, "possession_lost": 12.3621, "dispossessed": 0.4154, "duels_lost": 4.7076, "aerial_lost": 0.6906, "total_contest": 2.3276, "won_contest": 1.1886, "ball_recovery": 3.3666, "challenges_lost": 1.1298, "fouls": 1.5054, "fouls_drawn": 1.2721, "assist_rate": 0.0896, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.292, "tackles_won": 1.26, "tackles": 2.0261, "clearances": 1.2416, "blocks": 0.1539, "big_chances_created": 0.1524, "big_chances_missed": 0.0035, "xgot": 0.0421, "offsides": 0.0947, "ball_carries": 12.5493, "total_progression": 76.5401, "progressive_carries": 1.9888, "shots_off_target": 0.4139, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.658, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0625, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.04, "creation_factor": 1.2246, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0625, "scorer_weight": 0.0671, "squad_weight_total": 1.2116, "weight_share": 0.0554, "finishing_factor": 1.04, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.329, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.329, "runner_up": "Mariano Díaz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2236 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0645, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2147, "total_shots": 0.6286, "expected_assists": 0.0788, "key_pass": 0.6168, "rating": 6.8256, "minutes": 78.44, "total_pass": 23.1684, "accurate_pass": 18.4909, "duels_won": 5.2203, "total_long_balls": 2.2958, "accurate_long_balls": 0.972, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4244, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.913, "crosses_total": 3.6619, "crosses_accurate": 0.5444, "touches": 46.6909, "possession_lost": 12.3621, "dispossessed": 0.4154, "duels_lost": 4.7076, "aerial_lost": 0.6906, "total_contest": 2.3276, "won_contest": 1.1886, "ball_recovery": 3.3666, "challenges_lost": 1.1298, "fouls": 1.5054, "fouls_drawn": 1.2721, "assist_rate": 0.0896, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.292, "tackles_won": 1.26, "tackles": 2.0261, "clearances": 1.2416, "blocks": 0.1539, "big_chances_created": 0.1524, "big_chances_missed": 0.0035, "xgot": 0.0421, "offsides": 0.0947, "ball_carries": 12.5493, "total_progression": 76.5401, "progressive_carries": 1.9888, "shots_off_target": 0.4139, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.658, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0625, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0758, "finishing_factor": 1.04, "creation_factor": 1.2246, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0758, "provider_weight": 0.0965, "squad_weight_total": 0.9183, "weight_share": 0.1051, "creation_factor": 1.2246, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.2296, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2296, "runner_up": "Denis Suárez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1582, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Toni Martínez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jonny Otto": { "player_id": 235648, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 175, "market_value": 2100000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7718, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 36, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 8.6778, "dispossessed": 0.4843, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0213, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0326, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 73, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Cristian Romero", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0211, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.038, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0828, "expected_assists": 0.0919, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 33, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0141, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 9, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 30, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083578, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 25, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083364, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0173, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 49, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083202, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "expected_assists": 0.086, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 64, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083295, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0622, "expected_assists": 0.0448, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 275, "combined_rank_score": 212.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 199.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 225.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7718, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jonny Otto", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Seong-min Hwang", "ranking": 270 }, { "player_name": "Anzur Ismoilov", "ranking": 271 }, { "player_name": "Juan Cruz Gonzalez", "ranking": 272 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Bidu", "ranking": 273 }, { "player_name": "Alibek Davronov", "ranking": 274 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mauricio Isla", "ranking": 276 }, { "player_name": "Park Byeong Gyu", "ranking": 277 }, { "player_name": "Svetoslav Vutsov", "ranking": 278 }, { "player_name": "Negueba", "ranking": 279 }, { "player_name": "Léo Ortiz", "ranking": 280 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9977, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 40 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9491, "tackles": 1.8473, "tackles_won": 1.2671, "clearances": 3.1335, "aerial_won": 0.8499, "total_shots": 0.4608, "rating": 6.7718, "minutes": 87.19, "total_pass": 41.7011, "accurate_pass": 35.9011, "duels_won": 4.0015, "total_long_balls": 4.1694, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3874, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8482, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7983, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1029, "crosses_total": 0.4919, "crosses_accurate": 0.2684, "touches": 59.7756, "possession_lost": 8.6978, "dispossessed": 0.4854, "duels_lost": 3.0714, "aerial_lost": 0.758, "total_contest": 1.0491, "won_contest": 0.5448, "ball_recovery": 4.4881, "challenges_lost": 0.6663, "fouls": 0.669, "fouls_drawn": 0.671, "blocks": 0.6592, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0173, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "shots_on_target": 0.1655, "big_chances_created": 0.008, "xgot": 0.0266, "ball_carries": 16.3463, "total_progression": 73.3662, "progressive_carries": 1.2961, "key_pass": 0.3634, "shots_off_target": 0.2953 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 70.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.18, "aerialWon": 0.661, "totalClearance_p90": 3.264, "totalTackle": 2.1247, "totalPass": 41.7011 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9490780234336853, "model_output": 0.9491, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1136 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.028 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0115, "total": 0.9491, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124418 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.029239 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.024164 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.014768 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.009183 } ], "others_margin": -0.012023 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.8472628593444824, "model_output": 1.8473, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.192 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0689 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0636 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.061 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0562 } ], "others": 0.0117, "total": 1.8473, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129033 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.04251 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.03772 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.034865 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.031108 } ], "others_margin": 0.006379 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.2671180963516235, "model_output": 1.2671, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1177 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.077 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0818 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0342 } ], "others": 0.0624, "total": 1.2671, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129026 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.076237 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.075072 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.034459 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.028837 } ], "others_margin": 0.050526 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.13346791267395, "model_output": 3.1335, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.445 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.3131 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1229 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0988 } ], "others": -0.225, "total": 3.1335, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121273 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.083762 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.071997 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.0362 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.028998 } ], "others_margin": -0.06936 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8499252796173096, "model_output": 0.8499, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.3857 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1328 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0539 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0417 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0389 } ], "others": -0.1447, "total": 0.8499, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.32728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125088 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.048904 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.039571 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.038347 } ], "others_margin": -0.157145 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4607641398906708, "model_output": 0.4608, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0656 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0619 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0102 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0196, "total": 0.4608, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.065591 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061941 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.012187 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.010202 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.009441 } ], "others_margin": -0.019666 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.771811008453369, "model_output": 6.7718, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0121, "total": 6.7718, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.01434 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.014316 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012033 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009729 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.00814 } ], "others_margin": -0.012075 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 40, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9469, "tackles": 1.843, "tackles_won": 1.2642, "clearances": 3.1263, "aerial_won": 0.848, "total_shots": 0.4597, "rating": 6.7718, "minutes": 87.19, "total_pass": 41.6052, "accurate_pass": 35.8185, "duels_won": 3.9923, "total_long_balls": 4.1598, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3819, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7933, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7482, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0705, "crosses_total": 0.4908, "crosses_accurate": 0.2678, "touches": 59.6381, "possession_lost": 8.6778, "dispossessed": 0.4843, "duels_lost": 3.0643, "aerial_lost": 0.7563, "total_contest": 1.0467, "won_contest": 0.5435, "ball_recovery": 4.4778, "challenges_lost": 0.6648, "fouls": 0.6675, "fouls_drawn": 0.6695, "blocks": 0.6577, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0173, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "shots_on_target": 0.1651, "big_chances_created": 0.008, "xgot": 0.0265, "ball_carries": 16.3087, "total_progression": 73.1975, "progressive_carries": 1.2931, "key_pass": 0.3626, "shots_off_target": 0.2946 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2100000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9977, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9469, "tackles": 1.843, "tackles_won": 1.2642, "clearances": 3.1263, "aerial_won": 0.848, "total_shots": 0.4597, "rating": 6.7718, "minutes": 87.19, "total_pass": 41.6052, "accurate_pass": 35.8185, "duels_won": 3.9923, "total_long_balls": 4.1598, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3819, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7933, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7482, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0705, "crosses_total": 0.4908, "crosses_accurate": 0.2678, "touches": 59.6381, "possession_lost": 8.6778, "dispossessed": 0.4843, "duels_lost": 3.0643, "aerial_lost": 0.7563, "total_contest": 1.0467, "won_contest": 0.5435, "ball_recovery": 4.4778, "challenges_lost": 0.6648, "fouls": 0.6675, "fouls_drawn": 0.6695, "blocks": 0.6577, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0173, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "shots_on_target": 0.1651, "big_chances_created": 0.008, "xgot": 0.0265, "ball_carries": 16.3087, "total_progression": 73.1975, "progressive_carries": 1.2931, "key_pass": 0.3626, "shots_off_target": 0.2946 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9469, "tackles": 1.843, "tackles_won": 1.2642, "clearances": 3.1263, "aerial_won": 0.848, "total_shots": 0.4597, "rating": 6.7718, "minutes": 87.19, "total_pass": 41.6052, "accurate_pass": 35.8185, "duels_won": 3.9923, "total_long_balls": 4.1598, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3819, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7933, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7482, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0705, "crosses_total": 0.4908, "crosses_accurate": 0.2678, "touches": 59.6381, "possession_lost": 8.6778, "dispossessed": 0.4843, "duels_lost": 3.0643, "aerial_lost": 0.7563, "total_contest": 1.0467, "won_contest": 0.5435, "ball_recovery": 4.4778, "challenges_lost": 0.6648, "fouls": 0.6675, "fouls_drawn": 0.6695, "blocks": 0.6577, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0173, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "shots_on_target": 0.1651, "big_chances_created": 0.008, "xgot": 0.0265, "ball_carries": 16.3087, "total_progression": 73.1975, "progressive_carries": 1.2931, "key_pass": 0.3626, "shots_off_target": 0.2946, "opponent_faced": "Cristian Romero", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Cristian Romero", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.16 (squad xG sum 0.9447, xG scale 1.2311, xA scale 1.2311, team xA 0.90 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9469, "tackles": 1.843, "tackles_won": 1.2642, "clearances": 3.1263, "aerial_won": 0.848, "total_shots": 0.4597, "rating": 6.7718, "minutes": 87.19, "total_pass": 41.6052, "accurate_pass": 35.8185, "duels_won": 3.9923, "total_long_balls": 4.1598, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3819, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7933, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7482, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0705, "crosses_total": 0.4908, "crosses_accurate": 0.2678, "touches": 59.6381, "possession_lost": 8.6778, "dispossessed": 0.4843, "duels_lost": 3.0643, "aerial_lost": 0.7563, "total_contest": 1.0467, "won_contest": 0.5435, "ball_recovery": 4.4778, "challenges_lost": 0.6648, "fouls": 0.6675, "fouls_drawn": 0.6695, "blocks": 0.6577, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0213, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "shots_on_target": 0.1651, "big_chances_created": 0.008, "xgot": 0.0326, "ball_carries": 16.3087, "total_progression": 73.1975, "progressive_carries": 1.2931, "key_pass": 0.3626, "shots_off_target": 0.2946, "opponent_faced": "Cristian Romero", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.163, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9447, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7333, "team_expected_assists": 0.9028, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7763, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2311, "xa_scale": 1.2311, "opponent_lambda": 2.713, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0314, "after": 0.0387 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9469, "tackles": 1.843, "tackles_won": 1.2642, "clearances": 3.1263, "aerial_won": 0.848, "total_shots": 0.4597, "rating": 6.7718, "minutes": 87.19, "total_pass": 41.6052, "accurate_pass": 35.8185, "duels_won": 3.9923, "total_long_balls": 4.1598, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3819, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7933, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7482, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0705, "crosses_total": 0.4908, "crosses_accurate": 0.2678, "touches": 59.6381, "possession_lost": 8.6778, "dispossessed": 0.4843, "duels_lost": 3.0643, "aerial_lost": 0.7563, "total_contest": 1.0467, "won_contest": 0.5435, "ball_recovery": 4.4778, "challenges_lost": 0.6648, "fouls": 0.6675, "fouls_drawn": 0.6695, "blocks": 0.6577, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0213, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "shots_on_target": 0.1651, "big_chances_created": 0.008, "xgot": 0.0326, "ball_carries": 16.3087, "total_progression": 73.1975, "progressive_carries": 1.2931, "key_pass": 0.3626, "shots_off_target": 0.2946, "opponent_faced": "Cristian Romero", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 275, "fifa_rank": 225.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9469, "tackles": 1.843, "tackles_won": 1.2642, "clearances": 3.1263, "aerial_won": 0.848, "total_shots": 0.4597, "rating": 6.7718, "minutes": 87.19, "total_pass": 41.6052, "accurate_pass": 35.8185, "duels_won": 3.9923, "total_long_balls": 4.1598, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3819, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7933, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7482, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0705, "crosses_total": 0.4908, "crosses_accurate": 0.2678, "touches": 59.6381, "possession_lost": 8.6778, "dispossessed": 0.4843, "duels_lost": 3.0643, "aerial_lost": 0.7563, "total_contest": 1.0467, "won_contest": 0.5435, "ball_recovery": 4.4778, "challenges_lost": 0.6648, "fouls": 0.6675, "fouls_drawn": 0.6695, "blocks": 0.6577, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0213, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "shots_on_target": 0.1651, "big_chances_created": 0.008, "xgot": 0.0326, "ball_carries": 16.3087, "total_progression": 73.1975, "progressive_carries": 1.2931, "key_pass": 0.3626, "shots_off_target": 0.2946, "opponent_faced": "Cristian Romero", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0211, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0211, "scorer_weight": 0.017, "squad_weight_total": 1.2116, "weight_share": 0.0141, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.329, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.329, "runner_up": "Mariano Díaz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2236 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9469, "tackles": 1.843, "tackles_won": 1.2642, "clearances": 3.1263, "aerial_won": 0.848, "total_shots": 0.4597, "rating": 6.7718, "minutes": 87.19, "total_pass": 41.6052, "accurate_pass": 35.8185, "duels_won": 3.9923, "total_long_balls": 4.1598, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3819, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7933, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7482, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0705, "crosses_total": 0.4908, "crosses_accurate": 0.2678, "touches": 59.6381, "possession_lost": 8.6778, "dispossessed": 0.4843, "duels_lost": 3.0643, "aerial_lost": 0.7563, "total_contest": 1.0467, "won_contest": 0.5435, "ball_recovery": 4.4778, "challenges_lost": 0.6648, "fouls": 0.6675, "fouls_drawn": 0.6695, "blocks": 0.6577, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0213, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "shots_on_target": 0.1651, "big_chances_created": 0.008, "xgot": 0.0326, "ball_carries": 16.3087, "total_progression": 73.1975, "progressive_carries": 1.2931, "key_pass": 0.3626, "shots_off_target": 0.2946, "opponent_faced": "Cristian Romero", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0211, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.038, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.038, "provider_weight": 0.031, "squad_weight_total": 0.9183, "weight_share": 0.0337, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.2296, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2296, "runner_up": "Denis Suárez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1582, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Toni Martínez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Nicolás Valentini": { "player_id": 1116570, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 184, "market_value": 3100000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7412, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 35, "possession_lost": 8.4573, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0057, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0057, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0262, "finishing_factor": 0.9158, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0745, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 14, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0244, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4138, "combined_rank_score": 2135.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 822.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 3449.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7412, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nicolás Valentini", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Yunus Musah", "ranking": 4133 }, { "player_name": "Florent Muslija", "ranking": 4134 }, { "player_name": "Darnell Furlong", "ranking": 4135 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Noubi", "ranking": 4136 }, { "player_name": "Marcão", "ranking": 4137 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Borna Sosa", "ranking": 4139 }, { "player_name": "Nathan Broadhead", "ranking": 4140 }, { "player_name": "Fábio Cardoso", "ranking": 4141 }, { "player_name": "Jorge Sánchez", "ranking": 4142 }, { "player_name": "Christos Mouzakitis", "ranking": 4143 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.501, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.501, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9889, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 11.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 8.18, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Alavés, rel: 0.01, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7827, "tackles": 1.2559, "tackles_won": 0.7792, "clearances": 4.5393, "aerial_won": 1.2965, "total_shots": 0.41, "rating": 6.7412, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.04, "accurate_pass": 18.0553, "duels_won": 2.1611, "total_long_balls": 6.725, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2291, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5527, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.479, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5027, "crosses_total": 0.7602, "crosses_accurate": 0.2667, "touches": 35.1672, "possession_lost": 8.5522, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.04, "aerial_lost": 0.4595, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8544, "challenges_lost": 0.5806, "fouls": 0.1927, "fouls_drawn": 0.5806, "blocks": 0.9869, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.0217, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.6178, "total_progression": 22.7067, "progressive_carries": 0.2667, "key_pass": 0.2667, "shots_off_target": 0.41 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.9838, "aerialWon": 0.6862, "totalClearance_p90": 4.4373, "totalTackle": 0.8944, "totalPass": 25.04 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.7827027440071106, "model_output": 0.7827, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0977 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0974 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0244 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.018 } ], "others": -0.01, "total": 0.7827, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.121049 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120641 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.02889 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.026631 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.022398 } ], "others_margin": -0.012676 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.2558804750442505, "model_output": 1.2559, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1734 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1225 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.062 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0534 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0392 } ], "others": -0.0343, "total": 1.2559, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117254 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.081409 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.043847 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.039407 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.029943 } ], "others_margin": -0.026901 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.7792080044746399, "model_output": 0.7792, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1027 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0678 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0623 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0378 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0213, "total": 0.7792, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.113509 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.073429 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.07262 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.046742 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.014246 } ], "others_margin": -0.027027 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.539307594299316, "model_output": 4.5393, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4368 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3633 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.3008 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1785 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1212 } ], "others": 0.0443, "total": 4.5393, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119167 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.089335 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.068353 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.039996 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.02734 } ], "others_margin": 0.009793 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.2964566946029663, "model_output": 1.2965, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.3473 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1353 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1256 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.105 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0447 } ], "others": 0.0612, "total": 1.2965, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.289417 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12285 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.101998 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.084532 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.036846 } ], "others_margin": 0.048337 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4099857807159424, "model_output": 0.41, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0943 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0492 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0117 } ], "others": -0.0505, "total": 0.41, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.094322 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049167 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.032554 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.013554 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.011719 } ], "others_margin": -0.05038 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.741183280944824, "model_output": 6.7412, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0397 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0146 } ], "others": 0.025, "total": 6.7412, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.039708 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.020922 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.019972 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.015535 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014561 } ], "others_margin": 0.024907 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9889, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.774, "tackles": 1.2419, "tackles_won": 0.7706, "clearances": 4.4889, "aerial_won": 1.2821, "total_shots": 0.4054, "rating": 6.7412, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 24.7621, "accurate_pass": 17.8549, "duels_won": 2.1371, "total_long_balls": 6.6504, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1933, "total_own_half_passes": 13.4106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4245, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.3516, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4305, "crosses_total": 0.7518, "crosses_accurate": 0.2637, "touches": 34.7768, "possession_lost": 8.4573, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0285, "aerial_lost": 0.4544, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8449, "challenges_lost": 0.5742, "fouls": 0.1906, "fouls_drawn": 0.5742, "blocks": 0.9759, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0046, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.5221, "total_progression": 22.4547, "progressive_carries": 0.2637, "key_pass": 0.2637, "shots_off_target": 0.4054 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3100000, "quality_factor": 0.4387, "boost_factor": 0.9889, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0024)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7721, "tackles": 1.2419, "tackles_won": 0.7687, "clearances": 4.4889, "aerial_won": 1.2821, "total_shots": 0.4242, "rating": 6.7412, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 24.7621, "accurate_pass": 17.8549, "duels_won": 2.1371, "total_long_balls": 6.6504, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1933, "total_own_half_passes": 13.4106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4245, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.3516, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4305, "crosses_total": 0.75, "crosses_accurate": 0.2637, "touches": 34.7768, "possession_lost": 8.4573, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0285, "aerial_lost": 0.4544, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8449, "challenges_lost": 0.5742, "fouls": 0.2143, "fouls_drawn": 0.5728, "blocks": 0.9759, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0046, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.5221, "total_progression": 22.4547, "progressive_carries": 0.2637, "key_pass": 0.2637, "shots_off_target": 0.4054 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0024, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.1906, "after": 0.2143 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.4054, "after": 0.4242 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7721, "tackles": 1.2419, "tackles_won": 0.7687, "clearances": 4.4889, "aerial_won": 1.2821, "total_shots": 0.4242, "rating": 6.7412, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 24.7621, "accurate_pass": 17.8549, "duels_won": 2.1371, "total_long_balls": 6.6504, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1933, "total_own_half_passes": 13.4106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4245, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.3516, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4305, "crosses_total": 0.75, "crosses_accurate": 0.2637, "touches": 34.7768, "possession_lost": 8.4573, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0285, "aerial_lost": 0.4544, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8449, "challenges_lost": 0.5742, "fouls": 0.2143, "fouls_drawn": 0.5728, "blocks": 0.9759, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0046, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.5221, "total_progression": 22.4547, "progressive_carries": 0.2637, "key_pass": 0.2637, "shots_off_target": 0.4054 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7721, "tackles": 1.2419, "tackles_won": 0.7687, "clearances": 4.4889, "aerial_won": 1.2821, "total_shots": 0.4242, "rating": 6.7412, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 24.7621, "accurate_pass": 17.8549, "duels_won": 2.1371, "total_long_balls": 6.6504, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1933, "total_own_half_passes": 13.4106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4245, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.3516, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4305, "crosses_total": 0.75, "crosses_accurate": 0.2637, "touches": 34.7768, "possession_lost": 8.4573, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0285, "aerial_lost": 0.4544, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8449, "challenges_lost": 0.5742, "fouls": 0.2143, "fouls_drawn": 0.5728, "blocks": 0.9759, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0046, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.5221, "total_progression": 22.4547, "progressive_carries": 0.2637, "key_pass": 0.2637, "shots_off_target": 0.4054, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.16 (squad xG sum 0.9447, xG scale 1.2311, xA scale 1.2311, team xA 0.90 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7721, "tackles": 1.2419, "tackles_won": 0.7687, "clearances": 4.4889, "aerial_won": 1.2821, "total_shots": 0.4242, "rating": 6.7412, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 24.7621, "accurate_pass": 17.8549, "duels_won": 2.1371, "total_long_balls": 6.6504, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1933, "total_own_half_passes": 13.4106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4245, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.3516, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4305, "crosses_total": 0.75, "crosses_accurate": 0.2637, "touches": 34.7768, "possession_lost": 8.4573, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0285, "aerial_lost": 0.4544, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8449, "challenges_lost": 0.5742, "fouls": 0.2143, "fouls_drawn": 0.5728, "blocks": 0.9759, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0057, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.5221, "total_progression": 22.4547, "progressive_carries": 0.2637, "key_pass": 0.2637, "shots_off_target": 0.4054, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9158, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.163, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9447, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7333, "team_expected_assists": 0.9028, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7763, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2311, "xa_scale": 1.2311, "opponent_lambda": 2.713, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0215, "after": 0.0265 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7721, "tackles": 1.2419, "tackles_won": 0.7687, "clearances": 4.4889, "aerial_won": 1.2821, "total_shots": 0.4242, "rating": 6.7412, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 24.7621, "accurate_pass": 17.8549, "duels_won": 2.1371, "total_long_balls": 6.6504, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1933, "total_own_half_passes": 13.4106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4245, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.3516, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4305, "crosses_total": 0.75, "crosses_accurate": 0.2637, "touches": 34.7768, "possession_lost": 8.4573, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0285, "aerial_lost": 0.4544, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8449, "challenges_lost": 0.5742, "fouls": 0.2143, "fouls_drawn": 0.5728, "blocks": 0.9759, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0057, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.5221, "total_progression": 22.4547, "progressive_carries": 0.2637, "key_pass": 0.2637, "shots_off_target": 0.4054, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9158, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4138, "fifa_rank": 3449.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7721, "tackles": 1.2419, "tackles_won": 0.7687, "clearances": 4.4889, "aerial_won": 1.2821, "total_shots": 0.4242, "rating": 6.7412, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 24.7621, "accurate_pass": 17.8549, "duels_won": 2.1371, "total_long_balls": 6.6504, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1933, "total_own_half_passes": 13.4106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4245, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.3516, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4305, "crosses_total": 0.75, "crosses_accurate": 0.2637, "touches": 34.7768, "possession_lost": 8.4573, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0285, "aerial_lost": 0.4544, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8449, "challenges_lost": 0.5742, "fouls": 0.2143, "fouls_drawn": 0.5728, "blocks": 0.9759, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0057, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.5221, "total_progression": 22.4547, "progressive_carries": 0.2637, "key_pass": 0.2637, "shots_off_target": 0.4054, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0057, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9158, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0057, "scorer_weight": 0.0052, "squad_weight_total": 1.2116, "weight_share": 0.0043, "finishing_factor": 0.9158, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.329, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.329, "runner_up": "Mariano Díaz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2236 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7721, "tackles": 1.2419, "tackles_won": 0.7687, "clearances": 4.4889, "aerial_won": 1.2821, "total_shots": 0.4242, "rating": 6.7412, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 24.7621, "accurate_pass": 17.8549, "duels_won": 2.1371, "total_long_balls": 6.6504, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1933, "total_own_half_passes": 13.4106, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4245, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.3516, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4305, "crosses_total": 0.75, "crosses_accurate": 0.2637, "touches": 34.7768, "possession_lost": 8.4573, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0285, "aerial_lost": 0.4544, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8449, "challenges_lost": 0.5742, "fouls": 0.2143, "fouls_drawn": 0.5728, "blocks": 0.9759, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0057, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.5221, "total_progression": 22.4547, "progressive_carries": 0.2637, "key_pass": 0.2637, "shots_off_target": 0.4054, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan David", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0057, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0262, "finishing_factor": 0.9158, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0262, "provider_weight": 0.0212, "squad_weight_total": 0.9183, "weight_share": 0.0231, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.2296, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2296, "runner_up": "Denis Suárez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1582, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Toni Martínez" ] } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Grégoire Swiderski": { "player_id": 1440572, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 31, "height": 187, "market_value": 240000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "none", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Grégoire Swiderski", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.10873737216187492, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4374, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€240,000) scaled to 4.4 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position G (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0, "accurate_pass": 20.0, "total_long_balls": 8.0, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0, "touches": 32.0, "clearances": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 1.2, "high_claims": 0.5, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 0.6, "sweeper_actions": 1.2, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7, "saves_inside_box": 1.2, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0.2, "total_contest": 0.4, "won_contest": 0.2, "fouls": 0.2, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 240000, "quality_factor": 0.4374 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.0488, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall n/a; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "ranking_match": "none" } } ] }, "Youssef Enriquez": { "player_id": 1403364, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 170, "market_value": 4300000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 2.1105, "dispossessed": 0.1531, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.009, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.302, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.64, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0182, "expected_assists": 0.0057, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0338, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 36, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0741, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0674, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0552, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083578, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0189, "expected_assists": 0.3396, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083295, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0681, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081809, "match_date": "2026-04-05", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0622, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 413, "combined_rank_score": 283.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 257.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 310.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6764, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Youssef Enriquez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jun-sang Lee", "ranking": 408 }, { "player_name": "Boburbek Yuldashov", "ranking": 409 }, { "player_name": "Dor Peretz", "ranking": 410 }, { "player_name": "Itsuki Urata", "ranking": 411 }, { "player_name": "Chi-Won Choi", "ranking": 412 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Beom Song", "ranking": 414 }, { "player_name": "Irakli Azarovi", "ranking": 415 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Freeman", "ranking": 416 }, { "player_name": "Johaneko Louis Jean", "ranking": 417 }, { "player_name": "Roman Begunov", "ranking": 418 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 31, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.636033856478429, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.3016379025672013, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9979, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (31 historical appearances) to 13.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.30)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3005, "tackles": 0.6325, "tackles_won": 0.3822, "clearances": 0.9603, "aerial_won": 0.3381, "total_shots": 0.1809, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 24.79, "total_pass": 8.7311, "accurate_pass": 6.8231, "duels_won": 1.7154, "total_long_balls": 1.6138, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4653, "total_own_half_passes": 4.377, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6475, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3541, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1756, "crosses_total": 1.4069, "crosses_accurate": 0.6159, "touches": 18.3119, "possession_lost": 3.8449, "dispossessed": 0.1534, "duels_lost": 1.2518, "aerial_lost": 0.0508, "total_contest": 0.6254, "won_contest": 0.2738, "ball_recovery": 0.8159, "challenges_lost": 0.1882, "fouls": 0.5078, "fouls_drawn": 0.3989, "blocks": 0.0973, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.0465, "shots_on_target": 0.082, "big_chances_created": 0.104, "xgot": 0.0164, "ball_carries": 2.9304, "total_progression": 15.1047, "progressive_carries": 0.2251, "key_pass": 0.4581, "shots_off_target": 0.0989 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.151, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1283, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1091, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 36.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0927, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 20.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0788, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.067, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-05", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 1.5521, "aerialWon": 0.3374, "totalClearance_p90": 4.1533, "totalTackle": 0.8792, "totalPass": 11.5669 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.30050018429756165, "model_output": 0.3005, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4613 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0349, "total": 0.3005, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.772365 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.133171 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.037964 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.033061 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.027798 } ], "others_margin": -0.11007 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.6325212121009827, "model_output": 0.6325, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7533 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0324 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0265 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0181 } ], "others": -0.0047, "total": 0.6325, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.777487 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.051848 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.042576 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.03193 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.028023 } ], "others_margin": -0.007277 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3821902871131897, "model_output": 0.3822, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4425 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0101 } ], "others": 0.0049, "total": 0.3822, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.729663 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.04276 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.038284 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.034081 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.027107 } ], "others_margin": 0.013259 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.9602629542350769, "model_output": 0.9603, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0915 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.28 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1313 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0593 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.055 } ], "others": 0.126, "total": 0.9603, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.931344 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.230492 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.129647 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.064536 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.06388 } ], "others_margin": 0.140568 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.33814942836761475, "model_output": 0.3381, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7856 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.22 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.036 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0286 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0158 } ], "others": 0.0105, "total": 0.3381, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.840292 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.460289 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.100522 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.08767 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.04949 } ], "others_margin": 0.031463 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.18086299300193787, "model_output": 0.1809, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1971 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0667 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0078 } ], "others": -0.0114, "total": 0.1809, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.197073 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.06671 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.012054 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.010722 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.007848 } ], "others_margin": -0.011558 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.676409721374512, "model_output": 6.6764, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0321 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0126 } ], "others": -0.0088, "total": 6.6764, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.032053 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.022091 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.019146 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.014015 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012559 } ], "others_margin": -0.008859 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.454)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2999, "tackles": 0.6312, "tackles_won": 0.3814, "clearances": 0.9582, "aerial_won": 0.3374, "total_shots": 0.1805, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 24.79, "total_pass": 8.7128, "accurate_pass": 6.8088, "duels_won": 1.7118, "total_long_balls": 1.6104, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4643, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3678, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6398, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.345, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1689, "crosses_total": 1.4039, "crosses_accurate": 0.6146, "touches": 18.2734, "possession_lost": 3.8368, "dispossessed": 0.1531, "duels_lost": 1.2492, "aerial_lost": 0.0507, "total_contest": 0.6241, "won_contest": 0.2732, "ball_recovery": 0.8142, "challenges_lost": 0.1878, "fouls": 0.5067, "fouls_drawn": 0.3981, "blocks": 0.0971, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "shots_on_target": 0.0818, "big_chances_created": 0.1038, "xgot": 0.0164, "ball_carries": 2.9242, "total_progression": 15.073, "progressive_carries": 0.2246, "key_pass": 0.4571, "shots_off_target": 0.0987 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4300000, "quality_factor": 0.4535, "boost_factor": 0.9979, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.8 to 13.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.30)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.165, "tackles": 0.3472, "tackles_won": 0.2098, "clearances": 0.5271, "aerial_won": 0.1856, "total_shots": 0.0993, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 13.64, "total_pass": 4.7926, "accurate_pass": 3.7453, "duels_won": 0.9416, "total_long_balls": 0.8858, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2554, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4026, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0021, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7431, "crosses_total": 0.7722, "crosses_accurate": 0.3381, "touches": 10.0515, "possession_lost": 2.1105, "dispossessed": 0.1531, "duels_lost": 0.6871, "aerial_lost": 0.0507, "total_contest": 0.3433, "won_contest": 0.1503, "ball_recovery": 0.4479, "challenges_lost": 0.1878, "fouls": 0.2787, "fouls_drawn": 0.219, "blocks": 0.0534, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "shots_on_target": 0.045, "big_chances_created": 0.0571, "xgot": 0.009, "ball_carries": 1.6085, "total_progression": 8.2911, "progressive_carries": 0.1235, "key_pass": 0.2514, "shots_off_target": 0.0543, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.302, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.64 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.64, "projection_minutes": 24.79, "minutes_scale": 0.5501, "appearance_probability": 0.302 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.165, "tackles": 0.3472, "tackles_won": 0.2098, "clearances": 0.5271, "aerial_won": 0.1856, "total_shots": 0.0993, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 13.64, "total_pass": 4.7926, "accurate_pass": 3.7453, "duels_won": 0.9416, "total_long_balls": 0.8858, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2554, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4026, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0021, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7431, "crosses_total": 0.7722, "crosses_accurate": 0.3381, "touches": 10.0515, "possession_lost": 2.1105, "dispossessed": 0.1531, "duels_lost": 0.6871, "aerial_lost": 0.0507, "total_contest": 0.3433, "won_contest": 0.1503, "ball_recovery": 0.4479, "challenges_lost": 0.1878, "fouls": 0.2787, "fouls_drawn": 0.219, "blocks": 0.0534, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "shots_on_target": 0.045, "big_chances_created": 0.0571, "xgot": 0.009, "ball_carries": 1.6085, "total_progression": 8.2911, "progressive_carries": 0.1235, "key_pass": 0.2514, "shots_off_target": 0.0543, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.302, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.64 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.165, "tackles": 0.3472, "tackles_won": 0.2098, "clearances": 0.5271, "aerial_won": 0.1856, "total_shots": 0.0993, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 13.64, "total_pass": 4.7926, "accurate_pass": 3.7453, "duels_won": 0.9416, "total_long_balls": 0.8858, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2554, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4026, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0021, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7431, "crosses_total": 0.7722, "crosses_accurate": 0.3381, "touches": 10.0515, "possession_lost": 2.1105, "dispossessed": 0.1531, "duels_lost": 0.6871, "aerial_lost": 0.0507, "total_contest": 0.3433, "won_contest": 0.1503, "ball_recovery": 0.4479, "challenges_lost": 0.1878, "fouls": 0.2787, "fouls_drawn": 0.219, "blocks": 0.0534, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "shots_on_target": 0.045, "big_chances_created": 0.0571, "xgot": 0.009, "ball_carries": 1.6085, "total_progression": 8.2911, "progressive_carries": 0.1235, "key_pass": 0.2514, "shots_off_target": 0.0543, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.302, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.64, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.302, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.165, "tackles": 0.3472, "tackles_won": 0.2098, "clearances": 0.5271, "aerial_won": 0.1856, "total_shots": 0.0993, "rating": 6.6764, "minutes": 13.64, "total_pass": 4.7926, "accurate_pass": 3.7453, "duels_won": 0.9416, "total_long_balls": 0.8858, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2554, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4026, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0021, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7431, "crosses_total": 0.7722, "crosses_accurate": 0.3381, "touches": 10.0515, "possession_lost": 2.1105, "dispossessed": 0.1531, "duels_lost": 0.6871, "aerial_lost": 0.0507, "total_contest": 0.3433, "won_contest": 0.1503, "ball_recovery": 0.4479, "challenges_lost": 0.1878, "fouls": 0.2787, "fouls_drawn": 0.219, "blocks": 0.0534, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "shots_on_target": 0.045, "big_chances_created": 0.0571, "xgot": 0.009, "ball_carries": 1.6085, "total_progression": 8.2911, "progressive_carries": 0.1235, "key_pass": 0.2514, "shots_off_target": 0.0543, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.302, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.64, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 413, "fifa_rank": 310.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } } ] }, "Victor Parada": { "player_id": 985726, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 184, "market_value": 3900000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.7146, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0042, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.301, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.62, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 20, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083578, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0279, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083364, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1356, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 39, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083202, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083295, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2795, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083152, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0262, "expected_assists": 0.004, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081809, "match_date": "2026-04-05", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1129, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 38, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083689, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2617, "combined_rank_score": 1181.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 916.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.4966, "sofascore_appearances": 30.0, "fifa_rank": 1447.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6439, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Victor Parada", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Carlos Herrera", "ranking": 2612 }, { "player_name": "Oybek Urmonjonov", "ranking": 2613 }, { "player_name": "Jeremiah Mensah", "ranking": 2614 }, { "player_name": "Bendito Mantato", "ranking": 2615 }, { "player_name": "Kieran Trippier", "ranking": 2616 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Maximilian Arnold", "ranking": 2618 }, { "player_name": "Julián Alfaro", "ranking": 2619 }, { "player_name": "Min-Sung Kim", "ranking": 2620 }, { "player_name": "Mohamed Amoura", "ranking": 2621 }, { "player_name": "Łukasz Skorupski", "ranking": 2622 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 30, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 30, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.61644058998921, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.30074729954496415, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9976, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (30 historical appearances) to 13.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.30)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2838, "tackles": 0.4798, "tackles_won": 0.3021, "clearances": 1.1569, "aerial_won": 0.4063, "total_shots": 0.1304, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 20.49, "total_pass": 5.6998, "accurate_pass": 4.1449, "duels_won": 1.6164, "total_long_balls": 1.2734, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5393, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1571, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1571, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5427, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9878, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2428, "possession_lost": 2.5864, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5512, "aerial_lost": 0.2696, "total_contest": 0.3312, "won_contest": 0.3312, "ball_recovery": 0.9745, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2815, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2696, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0063, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.0, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1304 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1512, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1285, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1092, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0928, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0789, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0671, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.057, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-05", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.1828, "aerialWon": 0.866, "totalClearance_p90": 3.5484, "totalTackle": 1.2381, "totalPass": 24.4989 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.28380417823791504, "model_output": 0.2838, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4831 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0395 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.007 } ], "others": -0.0259, "total": 0.2838, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.829018 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.111554 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.03036 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.02503 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.022464 } ], "others_margin": -0.087045 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.4797985553741455, "model_output": 0.4798, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7844 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0141 } ], "others": -0.0496, "total": 0.4798, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.827239 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.046713 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.036779 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.031077 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.026284 } ], "others_margin": -0.098386 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.30208006501197815, "model_output": 0.3021, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4687 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0405, "total": 0.3021, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.79535 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.032643 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.030883 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.027942 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.026875 } ], "others_margin": -0.125958 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.1568572521209717, "model_output": 1.1569, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1148 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0689 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0615 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0588 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0492 } ], "others": -0.0643, "total": 1.1569, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.948616 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.052961 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.047336 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.045229 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.039531 } ], "others_margin": -0.054075 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.4063040018081665, "model_output": 0.4063, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8213 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.113 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0101 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0502, "total": 0.4063, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.902009 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.2251 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": -0.026178 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.02289 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.022748 } ], "others_margin": -0.116558 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.13035625219345093, "model_output": 0.1304, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2462 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0072 } ], "others": -0.0444, "total": 0.1304, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.246213 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017032 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.016445 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.009513 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.007181 } ], "others_margin": -0.044391 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6438889503479, "model_output": 6.6439, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0317 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0139 } ], "others": -0.0506, "total": 6.6439, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.031701 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.016233 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014435 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014426 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.013853 } ], "others_margin": -0.050594 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9976, quality 0.449)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2831, "tackles": 0.4786, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "clearances": 1.1541, "aerial_won": 0.4053, "total_shots": 0.1301, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 20.49, "total_pass": 5.6861, "accurate_pass": 4.135, "duels_won": 1.6125, "total_long_balls": 1.2703, "accurate_long_balls": 0.538, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1519, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1519, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.983, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2182, "possession_lost": 2.5802, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5499, "aerial_lost": 0.269, "total_contest": 0.3304, "won_contest": 0.3304, "ball_recovery": 0.9722, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2808, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.269, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0063, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.0, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1301 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3900000, "quality_factor": 0.4486, "boost_factor": 0.9976, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.5 to 13.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.30)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1881, "tackles": 0.318, "tackles_won": 0.2003, "clearances": 0.7669, "aerial_won": 0.2693, "total_shots": 0.0865, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 13.62, "total_pass": 3.7786, "accurate_pass": 2.7479, "duels_won": 1.0716, "total_long_balls": 0.8442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3575, "total_own_half_passes": 1.43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.43, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3178, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.7904, "possession_lost": 1.7146, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3654, "aerial_lost": 0.269, "total_contest": 0.2196, "won_contest": 0.2196, "ball_recovery": 0.6461, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1866, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1788, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0042, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.0, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0865, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.301, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.62 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.62, "projection_minutes": 20.49, "minutes_scale": 0.6645, "appearance_probability": 0.301 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1881, "tackles": 0.318, "tackles_won": 0.2003, "clearances": 0.7669, "aerial_won": 0.2693, "total_shots": 0.0865, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 13.62, "total_pass": 3.7786, "accurate_pass": 2.7479, "duels_won": 1.0716, "total_long_balls": 0.8442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3575, "total_own_half_passes": 1.43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.43, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3178, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.7904, "possession_lost": 1.7146, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3654, "aerial_lost": 0.269, "total_contest": 0.2196, "won_contest": 0.2196, "ball_recovery": 0.6461, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1866, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1788, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0042, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.0, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0865, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.301, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.62 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1881, "tackles": 0.318, "tackles_won": 0.2003, "clearances": 0.7669, "aerial_won": 0.2693, "total_shots": 0.0865, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 13.62, "total_pass": 3.7786, "accurate_pass": 2.7479, "duels_won": 1.0716, "total_long_balls": 0.8442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3575, "total_own_half_passes": 1.43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.43, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3178, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.7904, "possession_lost": 1.7146, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3654, "aerial_lost": 0.269, "total_contest": 0.2196, "won_contest": 0.2196, "ball_recovery": 0.6461, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1866, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1788, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0042, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.0, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0865, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.301, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.62, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.301, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1881, "tackles": 0.318, "tackles_won": 0.2003, "clearances": 0.7669, "aerial_won": 0.2693, "total_shots": 0.0865, "rating": 6.6439, "minutes": 13.62, "total_pass": 3.7786, "accurate_pass": 2.7479, "duels_won": 1.0716, "total_long_balls": 0.8442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3575, "total_own_half_passes": 1.43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.43, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3178, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.7904, "possession_lost": 1.7146, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3654, "aerial_lost": 0.269, "total_contest": 0.2196, "won_contest": 0.2196, "ball_recovery": 0.6461, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1866, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1788, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0042, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.0, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0865, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.301, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.62, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2617, "fifa_rank": 1447.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "Carlos Vicente": { "player_id": 1084399, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 179, "market_value": 7400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0623, "assist_rate": 0.0526, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.0314, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7633, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1131, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.017, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0307, "finishing_factor": 1.0476, "creation_factor": 1.0199, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083096, "match_date": "2026-01-25", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3229, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083233, "match_date": "2026-01-18", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.225, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083214, "match_date": "2026-01-10", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0507, "expected_assists": 0.2028, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083194, "match_date": "2026-01-04", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0346, "expected_assists": 0.453, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083188, "match_date": "2025-12-20", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.046, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083164, "match_date": "2025-12-14", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2448, "expected_assists": 0.1683, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083150, "match_date": "2025-12-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 39, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 5, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083144, "match_date": "2025-11-29", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1676, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083121, "match_date": "2025-11-22", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083114, "match_date": "2025-11-08", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3619, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3136, "combined_rank_score": 1102.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 393.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9476, "sofascore_appearances": 21.0, "fifa_rank": 1812.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7633, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Carlos Vicente", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Patrick Wimmer", "ranking": 3131 }, { "player_name": "Thomas Lemar", "ranking": 3132 }, { "player_name": "Robert Navarro", "ranking": 3133 }, { "player_name": "Luka Sučić", "ranking": 3134 }, { "player_name": "Che Adams", "ranking": 3135 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lautaro Di Lollo", "ranking": 3137 }, { "player_name": "Hugo Larsson", "ranking": 3138 }, { "player_name": "Kasper Dolberg", "ranking": 3139 }, { "player_name": "Matt Grimes", "ranking": 3140 }, { "player_name": "Sem Steijn", "ranking": 3141 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 21, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 21, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.18617755459381, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5084626161179004, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9992, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (21 historical appearances) to 22.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.51)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7614, "expected_assists": 0.08, "assists": 0.0832, "assist_rate": 0.0832, "expected_goals": 0.0439, "goals": 0.0495, "goal_rate": 0.0495, "shots_on_target": 0.1833, "total_shots": 0.6139, "rating": 6.7633, "minutes": 35.02, "total_pass": 14.832, "accurate_pass": 11.3101, "duels_won": 2.4218, "total_long_balls": 0.5808, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2485, "total_own_half_passes": 5.1988, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3139, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6333, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9962, "crosses_total": 4.8483, "crosses_accurate": 1.7393, "touches": 27.1534, "possession_lost": 8.6972, "dispossessed": 0.1484, "duels_lost": 1.9858, "aerial_won": 0.4198, "aerial_lost": 0.447, "interceptions": 0.4185, "tackles_won": 0.1868, "tackles": 0.3005, "clearances": 0.5118, "total_contest": 1.1897, "won_contest": 0.5922, "challenges_lost": 0.4217, "fouls": 0.3711, "fouls_drawn": 1.1093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6422, "big_chances_missed": 0.0704, "xgot": 0.1452, "ball_carries": 7.765, "total_progression": 14.6888, "progressive_carries": 1.3428, "shots_off_target": 0.4306 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-01-25", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1551, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-18", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1318, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-10", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1121, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-04", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0953, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-20", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.081, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-14", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0688, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-06", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 39.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0585, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2025-11-29", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0497, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2025-11-22", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0423, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2025-11-08", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0359, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.648, "creative_index": 0.6744, "expectedGoals": 0.1199, "expectedAssists": 0.1494, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2785 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7613584995269775, "model_output": 0.7614, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3854 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0489 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0525 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0328 } ], "others": 0.0767, "total": 0.7614, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.570726 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.094687 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.085102 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.083944 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.049081 } ], "others_margin": 0.106075 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07995913177728653, "model_output": 0.08, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0061 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0046 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0043 } ], "others": 0.0109, "total": 0.08, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.517754 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.204488 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.092543 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.065031 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.060867 } ], "others_margin": 0.146364 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.08317757397890091, "model_output": 0.0832, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0095 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0074 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0041 } ], "others": 0.0014, "total": 0.0832, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.239295 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.13271 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.091903 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.078131 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.051139 } ], "others_margin": 0.017303 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.04385197535157204, "model_output": 0.0439, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0423 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0025 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0023 } ], "others": -0.005, "total": 0.0439, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.593205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.156749 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.126725 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.047079 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.045974 } ], "others_margin": -0.110784 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.049496423453092575, "model_output": 0.0495, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0405 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.006 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0032 } ], "others": -0.0045, "total": 0.0495, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.535981 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.16648 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.11671 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.06594 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.061301 } ], "others_margin": -0.089053 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.18333138525485992, "model_output": 0.1833, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1515 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0079 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0056 } ], "others": 0.0054, "total": 0.1833, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.630213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.100306 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.08247 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.044182 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.031074 } ], "others_margin": 0.029847 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6139366626739502, "model_output": 0.6139, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.362 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1542 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0965 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0665 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0268 } ], "others": 0.0034, "total": 0.6139, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.362009 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.154199 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.096461 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.066497 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.026846 } ], "others_margin": 0.003567 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.763299465179443, "model_output": 6.7633, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0794 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0322 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0208 } ], "others": -0.0437, "total": 6.7633, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.07943 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.063768 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.032229 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.026714 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.020846 } ], "others_margin": -0.043549 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9992, quality 0.491)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7607, "expected_assists": 0.0799, "assists": 0.0831, "assist_rate": 0.0831, "expected_goals": 0.0438, "goals": 0.0495, "goal_rate": 0.0495, "shots_on_target": 0.1832, "total_shots": 0.6135, "rating": 6.7633, "minutes": 35.02, "total_pass": 14.8201, "accurate_pass": 11.3011, "duels_won": 2.4199, "total_long_balls": 0.5803, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2483, "total_own_half_passes": 5.1946, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3104, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6256, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9906, "crosses_total": 4.8444, "crosses_accurate": 1.7379, "touches": 27.1317, "possession_lost": 8.6902, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.9842, "aerial_won": 0.4195, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.4182, "tackles_won": 0.1867, "tackles": 0.3003, "clearances": 0.5114, "total_contest": 1.1887, "won_contest": 0.5917, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.3708, "fouls_drawn": 1.1084, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6417, "big_chances_missed": 0.0703, "xgot": 0.1451, "ball_carries": 7.7588, "total_progression": 14.677, "progressive_carries": 1.3417, "shots_off_target": 0.4303 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7400000, "quality_factor": 0.4915, "boost_factor": 0.9992, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 21, "history_shrink": 0.1923, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 35.0 to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4819, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "assists": 0.0526, "assist_rate": 0.0526, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goals": 0.0314, "goal_rate": 0.0314, "shots_on_target": 0.1161, "total_shots": 0.3887, "rating": 6.7633, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.0919, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.2726, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.19, "projection_minutes": 35.02, "minutes_scale": 0.6335, "appearance_probability": 0.508 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4819, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "assists": 0.0526, "assist_rate": 0.0526, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goals": 0.0314, "goal_rate": 0.0314, "shots_on_target": 0.1161, "total_shots": 0.3887, "rating": 6.7633, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.0919, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.2726, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.16 (squad xG sum 0.9447, xG scale 1.2311, xA scale 1.2311, team xA 0.90 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4819, "expected_assists": 0.0623, "assist_rate": 0.0526, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.0314, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1161, "total_shots": 0.3887, "rating": 6.7633, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.1131, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.2726, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0476, "creation_factor": 1.0199 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.163, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9447, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7333, "team_expected_assists": 0.9028, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7763, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2311, "xa_scale": 1.2311, "opponent_lambda": 2.713, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.508 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0277, "after": 0.0341 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0506, "after": 0.0623 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4819, "expected_assists": 0.0623, "assist_rate": 0.0526, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.0314, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1161, "total_shots": 0.3887, "rating": 6.7633, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.1131, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.2726, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0476, "creation_factor": 1.0199, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3136, "fifa_rank": 1812.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4819, "expected_assists": 0.0623, "assist_rate": 0.0526, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.0314, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1161, "total_shots": 0.3887, "rating": 6.7633, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.1131, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.2726, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.017, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0476, "creation_factor": 1.0199, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.017, "scorer_weight": 0.0181, "squad_weight_total": 1.2116, "weight_share": 0.015, "finishing_factor": 1.0476, "appearance_weight": 0.508, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.329, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.329, "runner_up": "Mariano Díaz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2236 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4819, "expected_assists": 0.0623, "assist_rate": 0.0526, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.0314, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1161, "total_shots": 0.3887, "rating": 6.7633, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.1131, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.2726, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.017, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0307, "finishing_factor": 1.0476, "creation_factor": 1.0199, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0307, "provider_weight": 0.0323, "squad_weight_total": 0.9183, "weight_share": 0.0352, "creation_factor": 1.0199, "appearance_weight": 0.508, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.2296, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2296, "runner_up": "Denis Suárez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1582, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Toni Martínez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Carles Aleñá": { "player_id": 794937, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 180, "market_value": 2800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "assist_rate": 0.038, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0326, "goal_rate": 0.0302, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0222, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0251, "finishing_factor": 1.0484, "creation_factor": 1.1, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0901, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0174, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083364, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0495, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083202, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0271, "expected_assists": 0.1834, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083295, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1123, "expected_assists": 0.1614, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083152, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0446, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2212, "combined_rank_score": 1041.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 822.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1260.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7069, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Carles Aleñá", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Darko Velkovski", "ranking": 2207 }, { "player_name": "Sandro Wieser", "ranking": 2208 }, { "player_name": "Zafar Sadullayev", "ranking": 2209 }, { "player_name": "Tyrell Malacia", "ranking": 2210 }, { "player_name": "Yeremay Hernández", "ranking": 2211 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jorge Cestero", "ranking": 2213 }, { "player_name": "Wallace Yan", "ranking": 2214 }, { "player_name": "Behruz Uktamov", "ranking": 2215 }, { "player_name": "Ilkhomzhon Kenzhaev", "ranking": 2216 }, { "player_name": "Ravshanbek Yagudin", "ranking": 2217 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.751, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.751, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.692, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9977, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 6.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (40 historical appearances) to 13.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.69); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 6.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4363, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "assists": 0.0525, "assist_rate": 0.0525, "expected_goals": 0.0366, "goals": 0.0417, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "shots_on_target": 0.1347, "total_shots": 0.4512, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 18.18, "total_pass": 10.3258, "accurate_pass": 9.0704, "duels_won": 0.9854, "total_long_balls": 0.467, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3216, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4329, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2796, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7908, "crosses_total": 1.4543, "crosses_accurate": 0.2959, "touches": 15.2867, "possession_lost": 3.5232, "dispossessed": 0.804, "duels_lost": 1.4241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2203, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2812, "tackles": 0.3531, "clearances": 0.0196, "total_contest": 0.3506, "won_contest": 0.149, "challenges_lost": 0.0271, "fouls": 0.171, "fouls_drawn": 0.4833, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.2971, "total_progression": 5.2545, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3165 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.4825, "creative_index": 0.2918, "expectedGoals": 0.0343, "expectedAssists": 0.0452, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0966 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4362913966178894, "model_output": 0.4363, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4428 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0291 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0279 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0195 } ], "others": 0.0317, "total": 0.4363, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.692567 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.063658 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.060876 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.047197 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.047052 } ], "others_margin": 0.075405 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04138258844614029, "model_output": 0.0414, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0394 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0071 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0023 } ], "others": -0.0072, "total": 0.0414, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.615098 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.142417 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.079776 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.065235 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.047735 } ], "others_margin": -0.158893 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.052475184202194214, "model_output": 0.0525, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0274 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0044 } ], "others": -0.0094, "total": 0.0525, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.388064 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.15332 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.081651 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.0776 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.074493 } ], "others_margin": -0.165507 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03662968799471855, "model_output": 0.0366, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0426 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0078 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0048 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0022 } ], "others": -0.0118, "total": 0.0366, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.599547 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.162162 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.103952 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.05476 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.047439 } ], "others_margin": -0.281902 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.04169392213225365, "model_output": 0.0417, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0379 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0038 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0109, "total": 0.0417, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.490832 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.175047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.096129 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.081001 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.064601 } ], "others_margin": -0.23458 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.13468150794506073, "model_output": 0.1347, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1334 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0453 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0055 } ], "others": -0.0141, "total": 0.1347, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.530814 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.271517 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.145068 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.131046 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.037937 } ], "others_margin": -0.099388 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4512183666229248, "model_output": 0.4512, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.399 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1908 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0736 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.024 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.022 } ], "others": -0.0211, "total": 0.4512, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.39903 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.190817 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.073627 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.023955 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.022011 } ], "others_margin": -0.021081 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.706933498382568, "model_output": 6.7069, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0854 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0373 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0274 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0093 } ], "others": 0.0004, "total": 6.7069, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08536 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.037796 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.037328 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.027401 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.00927 } ], "others_margin": 0.000419 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4353, "expected_assists": 0.0413, "assists": 0.0524, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "expected_goals": 0.0365, "goals": 0.0416, "goal_rate": 0.0416, "shots_on_target": 0.1344, "total_shots": 0.4502, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 18.18, "total_pass": 10.3021, "accurate_pass": 9.0495, "duels_won": 0.9831, "total_long_balls": 0.4659, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3209, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2744, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8747, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7752, "crosses_total": 1.451, "crosses_accurate": 0.2952, "touches": 15.2515, "possession_lost": 3.5151, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.4208, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2806, "tackles": 0.3523, "clearances": 0.0196, "total_contest": 0.3498, "won_contest": 0.1487, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1706, "fouls_drawn": 0.4822, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1383, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.2872, "total_progression": 5.2424, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3158 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9977, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0005)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4353, "expected_assists": 0.0413, "assists": 0.0524, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "expected_goals": 0.0365, "goals": 0.0416, "goal_rate": 0.0416, "shots_on_target": 0.1351, "total_shots": 0.4507, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 18.18, "total_pass": 10.3021, "accurate_pass": 9.0495, "duels_won": 0.9831, "total_long_balls": 0.4659, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3209, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2744, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8747, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7752, "crosses_total": 1.4523, "crosses_accurate": 0.2952, "touches": 15.2515, "possession_lost": 3.5151, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.4208, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2814, "tackles": 0.3523, "clearances": 0.0196, "total_contest": 0.3498, "won_contest": 0.1487, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1705, "fouls_drawn": 0.482, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1383, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.2872, "total_progression": 5.2424, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3158 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0005, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.202, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.2 to 13.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3158, "expected_assists": 0.03, "assists": 0.038, "assist_rate": 0.038, "expected_goals": 0.0265, "goals": 0.0302, "goal_rate": 0.0302, "shots_on_target": 0.098, "total_shots": 0.3271, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2291, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.19, "projection_minutes": 18.18, "minutes_scale": 0.7255, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3158, "expected_assists": 0.03, "assists": 0.038, "assist_rate": 0.038, "expected_goals": 0.0265, "goals": 0.0302, "goal_rate": 0.0302, "shots_on_target": 0.098, "total_shots": 0.3271, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2291, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.16 (squad xG sum 0.9447, xG scale 1.2311, xA scale 1.2311, team xA 0.90 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3158, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "assist_rate": 0.038, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0326, "goal_rate": 0.0302, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.098, "total_shots": 0.3271, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2291, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0484, "creation_factor": 1.1 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.163, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9447, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7333, "team_expected_assists": 0.9028, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7763, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2311, "xa_scale": 1.2311, "opponent_lambda": 2.713, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0265, "after": 0.0326 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.03, "after": 0.0369 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3158, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "assist_rate": 0.038, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0326, "goal_rate": 0.0302, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.098, "total_shots": 0.3271, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2291, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0484, "creation_factor": 1.1, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2212, "fifa_rank": 1260.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3158, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "assist_rate": 0.038, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0326, "goal_rate": 0.0302, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.098, "total_shots": 0.3271, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2291, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0222, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0484, "creation_factor": 1.1, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0222, "scorer_weight": 0.0237, "squad_weight_total": 1.2116, "weight_share": 0.0195, "finishing_factor": 1.0484, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.329, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.329, "runner_up": "Mariano Díaz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2236 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3158, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "assist_rate": 0.038, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0326, "goal_rate": 0.0302, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.098, "total_shots": 0.3271, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2291, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0222, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0251, "finishing_factor": 1.0484, "creation_factor": 1.1, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0251, "provider_weight": 0.0281, "squad_weight_total": 0.9183, "weight_share": 0.0306, "creation_factor": 1.1, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.2296, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2296, "runner_up": "Denis Suárez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1582, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Toni Martínez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Lucas Boyé": { "player_id": 814385, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 183, "market_value": 5300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1606, "goal_rate": 0.1953, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6711, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 6.3403, "dispossessed": 0.7816, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.2638, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.336, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2017, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1505, "expected_assists": 0.032, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 3.0, "goals": 3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2454, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 13, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.533, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1089, "expected_assists": 0.2737, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3873, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083202, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083295, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0944, "expected_assists": 0.0504, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2629, "combined_rank_score": 921.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 292.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.05, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1550.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6711, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lucas Boyé", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Augustine Chidi Kwem", "ranking": 2624 }, { "player_name": "Otabek Ahadov", "ranking": 2625 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Sandoval", "ranking": 2626 }, { "player_name": "Ruben Loftus-Cheek", "ranking": 2627 }, { "player_name": "Edu Expósito", "ranking": 2628 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Duván Zapata", "ranking": 2630 }, { "player_name": "Tosin Adarabioyo", "ranking": 2631 }, { "player_name": "Selton Sanchez", "ranking": 2632 }, { "player_name": "Jung-Min Kim", "ranking": 2633 }, { "player_name": "Enzo Barrenechea", "ranking": 2634 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.766, "history_matches": 35, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 35, "data_confidence": 0.766, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.404825411466106, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.336, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9985, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.625, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (35 historical appearances) to 25.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.34); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1448, "goals": 0.1762, "goal_rate": 0.1762, "shots_on_target": 0.3395, "total_shots": 1.1104, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "key_pass": 0.3547, "rating": 6.6711, "minutes": 22.87, "total_pass": 5.8926, "accurate_pass": 3.6681, "duels_won": 1.4953, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7188, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8081, "crosses_total": 0.0833, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.9705, "possession_lost": 5.7163, "dispossessed": 0.7828, "duels_lost": 2.0707, "aerial_lost": 1.0381, "total_contest": 0.2428, "won_contest": 0.1595, "ball_recovery": 0.6645, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6902, "fouls_drawn": 0.5284, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0833, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1356, "clearances": 0.4385, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4757, "xgot": 0.2379, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5359, "total_progression": 1.5032, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7709 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1505, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 10.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 4.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 5.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.2258, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 10.9219, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 7.4325, "accuratePass": 10.2614, "totalShots": 2.3045 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.14480365812778473, "model_output": 0.1448, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0812 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0074 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0064 } ], "others": 0.0019, "total": 0.1448, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.524287 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.127328 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.059021 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.050785 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.044136 } ], "others_margin": 0.013591 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.17618778347969055, "model_output": 0.1762, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0741 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0098 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0071 } ], "others": 0.022, "total": 0.1762, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.45228 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.111243 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.065545 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.050267 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.046844 } ], "others_margin": 0.133575 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.3394647240638733, "model_output": 0.3395, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2111 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0145, "total": 0.3395, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.499557 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.07891 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.073471 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.053154 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.034713 } ], "others_margin": -0.041461 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1103696823120117, "model_output": 1.1104, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.574 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1847 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.053 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0424 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.038 } ], "others": 0.0636, "total": 1.1104, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.574014 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.184714 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.053017 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.042439 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.038021 } ], "others_margin": 0.063528 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.026572417467832565, "model_output": 0.0266, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0018 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0016 } ], "others": -0.0072, "total": 0.0266, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.379557 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.091576 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.077854 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.04931 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.045787 } ], "others_margin": -0.239343 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.35473936796188354, "model_output": 0.3547, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2642 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": 0.0138, "total": 0.3547, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.497615 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.070255 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.04078 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.039491 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.033345 } ], "others_margin": 0.039673 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.671072483062744, "model_output": 6.6711, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0689 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0171 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": -0.0256, "total": 6.6711, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.068865 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.017622 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.017082 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.015461 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011558 } ], "others_margin": -0.025586 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.466)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1446, "goals": 0.1759, "goal_rate": 0.1759, "shots_on_target": 0.339, "total_shots": 1.1087, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "key_pass": 0.3542, "rating": 6.6711, "minutes": 22.87, "total_pass": 5.8838, "accurate_pass": 3.6626, "duels_won": 1.4931, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7117, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8039, "crosses_total": 0.0832, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.951, "possession_lost": 5.7077, "dispossessed": 0.7816, "duels_lost": 2.0676, "aerial_lost": 1.0365, "total_contest": 0.2424, "won_contest": 0.1593, "ball_recovery": 0.6635, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6892, "fouls_drawn": 0.5276, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0832, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1354, "clearances": 0.4378, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.475, "xgot": 0.2375, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5321, "total_progression": 1.5009, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7697 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5300000, "quality_factor": 0.4659, "boost_factor": 0.9985, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0087)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1446, "goals": 0.1758, "goal_rate": 0.1758, "shots_on_target": 0.3389, "total_shots": 1.1061, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "key_pass": 0.3542, "rating": 6.6711, "minutes": 22.87, "total_pass": 5.8838, "accurate_pass": 3.6626, "duels_won": 1.4931, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7117, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8039, "crosses_total": 0.0825, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.951, "possession_lost": 5.7077, "dispossessed": 0.7816, "duels_lost": 2.0676, "aerial_lost": 1.0365, "total_contest": 0.2424, "won_contest": 0.1593, "ball_recovery": 0.6635, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6901, "fouls_drawn": 0.5258, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0825, "tackles_won": 0.0069, "tackles": 0.1354, "clearances": 0.4378, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.475, "xgot": 0.2375, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5321, "total_progression": 1.5009, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7697 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0087, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2541, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0069 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.9 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.34)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1606, "goals": 0.1953, "goal_rate": 0.1953, "shots_on_target": 0.3765, "total_shots": 1.2315, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "key_pass": 0.3935, "rating": 6.6711, "minutes": 25.4, "total_pass": 6.5359, "accurate_pass": 4.0685, "duels_won": 1.6586, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2339, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1147, "crosses_total": 0.0916, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3864, "possession_lost": 6.3403, "dispossessed": 0.7816, "duels_lost": 2.2968, "aerial_lost": 1.0365, "total_contest": 0.2693, "won_contest": 0.177, "ball_recovery": 0.737, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7666, "fouls_drawn": 0.5841, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0916, "tackles_won": 0.0077, "tackles": 0.1504, "clearances": 0.4863, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5276, "xgot": 0.2638, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8127, "total_progression": 1.6673, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.855, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.336, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.4, "projection_minutes": 22.87, "minutes_scale": 1.1108, "appearance_probability": 0.336 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1606, "goals": 0.1953, "goal_rate": 0.1953, "shots_on_target": 0.3765, "total_shots": 1.2315, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "key_pass": 0.3935, "rating": 6.6711, "minutes": 25.4, "total_pass": 6.5359, "accurate_pass": 4.0685, "duels_won": 1.6586, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2339, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1147, "crosses_total": 0.0916, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3864, "possession_lost": 6.3403, "dispossessed": 0.7816, "duels_lost": 2.2968, "aerial_lost": 1.0365, "total_contest": 0.2693, "won_contest": 0.177, "ball_recovery": 0.737, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7666, "fouls_drawn": 0.5841, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0916, "tackles_won": 0.0077, "tackles": 0.1504, "clearances": 0.4863, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5276, "xgot": 0.2638, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8127, "total_progression": 1.6673, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.855, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.336, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1606, "goal_rate": 0.1953, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3765, "total_shots": 1.2315, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "key_pass": 0.3935, "rating": 6.6711, "minutes": 25.4, "total_pass": 6.5359, "accurate_pass": 4.0685, "duels_won": 1.6586, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2339, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1147, "crosses_total": 0.0916, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3864, "possession_lost": 6.3403, "dispossessed": 0.7816, "duels_lost": 2.2968, "aerial_lost": 1.0365, "total_contest": 0.2693, "won_contest": 0.177, "ball_recovery": 0.737, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7666, "fouls_drawn": 0.5841, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0916, "tackles_won": 0.0077, "tackles": 0.1504, "clearances": 0.4863, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5276, "xgot": 0.2638, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8127, "total_progression": 1.6673, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.855, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.336, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.336, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1606, "goal_rate": 0.1953, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3765, "total_shots": 1.2315, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "key_pass": 0.3935, "rating": 6.6711, "minutes": 25.4, "total_pass": 6.5359, "accurate_pass": 4.0685, "duels_won": 1.6586, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2339, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1147, "crosses_total": 0.0916, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.3864, "possession_lost": 6.3403, "dispossessed": 0.7816, "duels_lost": 2.2968, "aerial_lost": 1.0365, "total_contest": 0.2693, "won_contest": 0.177, "ball_recovery": 0.737, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7666, "fouls_drawn": 0.5841, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0916, "tackles_won": 0.0077, "tackles": 0.1504, "clearances": 0.4863, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5276, "xgot": 0.2638, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8127, "total_progression": 1.6673, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.855, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.336, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2629, "fifa_rank": 1550.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "Miguel Rodríguez": { "player_id": 1014118, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 179, "market_value": 4099999, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1028, "goal_rate": 0.1076, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 3.1428, "dispossessed": 0.7696, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0548, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0231, "finishing_factor": 1.1805, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4196, "combined_rank_score": 2227.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 4258.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6222, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Miguel Rodríguez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "José Sosa", "ranking": 4191 }, { "player_name": "Jason Knight", "ranking": 4192 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Marín", "ranking": 4193 }, { "player_name": "Yvan Neyou", "ranking": 4194 }, { "player_name": "Sidiki Cherif", "ranking": 4195 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Federico Navarro", "ranking": 4197 }, { "player_name": "Yukinari Sugawara", "ranking": 4198 }, { "player_name": "Patrick Pentz", "ranking": 4199 }, { "player_name": "Álex Sancris", "ranking": 4200 }, { "player_name": "Bartosz Slisz", "ranking": 4201 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.346242177473513, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.561192826248796, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9899, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (3 historical appearances) to 25.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.56); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0563, "goals": 0.0724, "goal_rate": 0.0724, "shots_on_target": 0.2136, "total_shots": 0.592, "expected_assists": 0.0229, "key_pass": 0.3763, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 12.79, "total_pass": 2.1662, "accurate_pass": 1.4966, "duels_won": 0.7775, "total_long_balls": 0.3304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3304, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1662, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4966, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.449, "possession_lost": 2.1166, "dispossessed": 0.7775, "duels_lost": 1.0583, "aerial_lost": 0.2809, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1662, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3887, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3887, "tackles": 0.3887, "clearances": 0.2809, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8853, "total_progression": 15.6129, "progressive_carries": 0.3887, "shots_off_target": 0.3784 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 2.1662, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 1.4966, "accuratePass": 1.4966, "totalShots": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.05631077289581299, "model_output": 0.0563, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0872 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0038 } ], "others": -0.0183, "total": 0.0563, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.57705 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.201003 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.078216 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.076061 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.0499 } ], "others_margin": -0.279962 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07244747877120972, "model_output": 0.0724, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0631 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0224 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0168, "total": 0.0724, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.370946 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.173118 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.101268 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.092761 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.086369 } ], "others_margin": -0.209566 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.21355248987674713, "model_output": 0.2136, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2125 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0258 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0129 } ], "others": -0.035, "total": 0.2136, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.503772 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.082873 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.069824 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.06327 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.050463 } ], "others_margin": -0.151877 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5919376611709595, "model_output": 0.5919, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4714 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1321 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0521 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0318 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0306 } ], "others": -0.13, "total": 0.5919, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.471368 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.132136 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.052069 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.031848 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.03061 } ], "others_margin": -0.129958 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.022903988137841225, "model_output": 0.0229, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0016 } ], "others": 0.0012, "total": 0.0229, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.398771 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.264452 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.207481 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.149269 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.07198 } ], "others_margin": 0.059965 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.37633222341537476, "model_output": 0.3763, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.287 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0562 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0483 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0345 } ], "others": -0.0079, "total": 0.3763, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.554824 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.156882 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.136209 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.099446 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.085933 } ], "others_margin": -0.020739 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.622249126434326, "model_output": 6.6222, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0425 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0144 } ], "others": -0.0654, "total": 6.6222, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.042524 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.017442 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.015225 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.01491 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014442 } ], "others_margin": -0.06519 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9899, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0557, "goals": 0.0717, "goal_rate": 0.0717, "shots_on_target": 0.2114, "total_shots": 0.586, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "key_pass": 0.3725, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 12.79, "total_pass": 2.1443, "accurate_pass": 1.4815, "duels_won": 0.7696, "total_long_balls": 0.3271, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3271, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1443, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4815, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.394, "possession_lost": 2.0952, "dispossessed": 0.7696, "duels_lost": 1.0476, "aerial_lost": 0.2781, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1544, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3848, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3848, "tackles": 0.3848, "clearances": 0.2781, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8663, "total_progression": 15.4552, "progressive_carries": 0.3848, "shots_off_target": 0.3746 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4099999, "quality_factor": 0.4511, "boost_factor": 0.9899, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.8 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0835, "goals": 0.1076, "goal_rate": 0.1076, "shots_on_target": 0.3171, "total_shots": 0.879, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "key_pass": 0.5587, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 3.2165, "accurate_pass": 2.2222, "duels_won": 1.1544, "total_long_balls": 0.4907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4907, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2165, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2222, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.091, "possession_lost": 3.1428, "dispossessed": 0.7696, "duels_lost": 1.5714, "aerial_lost": 0.2781, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7316, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5772, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5772, "tackles": 0.5772, "clearances": 0.4172, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7995, "total_progression": 23.1828, "progressive_carries": 0.5772, "shots_off_target": 0.5619, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.35, "projection_minutes": 12.79, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.561 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0835, "goals": 0.1076, "goal_rate": 0.1076, "shots_on_target": 0.3171, "total_shots": 0.879, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "key_pass": 0.5587, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 3.2165, "accurate_pass": 2.2222, "duels_won": 1.1544, "total_long_balls": 0.4907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4907, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2165, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2222, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.091, "possession_lost": 3.1428, "dispossessed": 0.7696, "duels_lost": 1.5714, "aerial_lost": 0.2781, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7316, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5772, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5772, "tackles": 0.5772, "clearances": 0.4172, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7995, "total_progression": 23.1828, "progressive_carries": 0.5772, "shots_off_target": 0.5619, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.16 (squad xG sum 0.9447, xG scale 1.2311, xA scale 1.2311, team xA 0.90 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1028, "goal_rate": 0.1076, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3171, "total_shots": 0.879, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 0.5587, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 3.2165, "accurate_pass": 2.2222, "duels_won": 1.1544, "total_long_balls": 0.4907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4907, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2165, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2222, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.091, "possession_lost": 3.1428, "dispossessed": 0.7696, "duels_lost": 1.5714, "aerial_lost": 0.2781, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7316, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5772, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5772, "tackles": 0.5772, "clearances": 0.4172, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7995, "total_progression": 23.1828, "progressive_carries": 0.5772, "shots_off_target": 0.5619, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1805, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.163, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9447, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7333, "team_expected_assists": 0.9028, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7763, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2311, "xa_scale": 1.2311, "opponent_lambda": 2.713, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.561 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0835, "after": 0.1028 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0341, "after": 0.042 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1028, "goal_rate": 0.1076, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3171, "total_shots": 0.879, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 0.5587, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 3.2165, "accurate_pass": 2.2222, "duels_won": 1.1544, "total_long_balls": 0.4907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4907, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2165, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2222, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.091, "possession_lost": 3.1428, "dispossessed": 0.7696, "duels_lost": 1.5714, "aerial_lost": 0.2781, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7316, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5772, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5772, "tackles": 0.5772, "clearances": 0.4172, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7995, "total_progression": 23.1828, "progressive_carries": 0.5772, "shots_off_target": 0.5619, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1805, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4196, "fifa_rank": 4258.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1028, "goal_rate": 0.1076, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3171, "total_shots": 0.879, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 0.5587, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 3.2165, "accurate_pass": 2.2222, "duels_won": 1.1544, "total_long_balls": 0.4907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4907, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2165, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2222, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.091, "possession_lost": 3.1428, "dispossessed": 0.7696, "duels_lost": 1.5714, "aerial_lost": 0.2781, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7316, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5772, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5772, "tackles": 0.5772, "clearances": 0.4172, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7995, "total_progression": 23.1828, "progressive_carries": 0.5772, "shots_off_target": 0.5619, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0548, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1805, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0548, "scorer_weight": 0.0681, "squad_weight_total": 1.2116, "weight_share": 0.0562, "finishing_factor": 1.1805, "appearance_weight": 0.561, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.329, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.329, "runner_up": "Mariano Díaz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2236 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1028, "goal_rate": 0.1076, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3171, "total_shots": 0.879, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 0.5587, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 3.2165, "accurate_pass": 2.2222, "duels_won": 1.1544, "total_long_balls": 0.4907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4907, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2165, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2222, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.091, "possession_lost": 3.1428, "dispossessed": 0.7696, "duels_lost": 1.5714, "aerial_lost": 0.2781, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7316, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5772, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5772, "tackles": 0.5772, "clearances": 0.4172, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7995, "total_progression": 23.1828, "progressive_carries": 0.5772, "shots_off_target": 0.5619, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0548, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0231, "finishing_factor": 1.1805, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0231, "provider_weight": 0.0188, "squad_weight_total": 0.9183, "weight_share": 0.0205, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.561, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.2296, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2296, "runner_up": "Denis Suárez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1582, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Toni Martínez" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Carles Aleñá": { "player_id": 794937, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 180, "market_value": 2800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "assist_rate": 0.038, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0326, "goal_rate": 0.0302, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0222, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0251, "finishing_factor": 1.0484, "creation_factor": 1.1, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0901, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0174, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083364, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0495, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083202, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0271, "expected_assists": 0.1834, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083295, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1123, "expected_assists": 0.1614, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083152, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0446, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2212, "combined_rank_score": 1041.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 822.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1260.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7069, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Carles Aleñá", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Darko Velkovski", "ranking": 2207 }, { "player_name": "Sandro Wieser", "ranking": 2208 }, { "player_name": "Zafar Sadullayev", "ranking": 2209 }, { "player_name": "Tyrell Malacia", "ranking": 2210 }, { "player_name": "Yeremay Hernández", "ranking": 2211 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jorge Cestero", "ranking": 2213 }, { "player_name": "Wallace Yan", "ranking": 2214 }, { "player_name": "Behruz Uktamov", "ranking": 2215 }, { "player_name": "Ilkhomzhon Kenzhaev", "ranking": 2216 }, { "player_name": "Ravshanbek Yagudin", "ranking": 2217 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.751, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.751, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.692, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9977, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 6.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (40 historical appearances) to 13.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.69); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 6.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4363, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "assists": 0.0525, "assist_rate": 0.0525, "expected_goals": 0.0366, "goals": 0.0417, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "shots_on_target": 0.1347, "total_shots": 0.4512, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 18.18, "total_pass": 10.3258, "accurate_pass": 9.0704, "duels_won": 0.9854, "total_long_balls": 0.467, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3216, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4329, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2796, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7908, "crosses_total": 1.4543, "crosses_accurate": 0.2959, "touches": 15.2867, "possession_lost": 3.5232, "dispossessed": 0.804, "duels_lost": 1.4241, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2203, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2812, "tackles": 0.3531, "clearances": 0.0196, "total_contest": 0.3506, "won_contest": 0.149, "challenges_lost": 0.0271, "fouls": 0.171, "fouls_drawn": 0.4833, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.2971, "total_progression": 5.2545, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3165 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.4825, "creative_index": 0.2918, "expectedGoals": 0.0343, "expectedAssists": 0.0452, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0966 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4362913966178894, "model_output": 0.4363, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4428 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0291 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0279 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0195 } ], "others": 0.0317, "total": 0.4363, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.692567 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.063658 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.060876 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.047197 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.047052 } ], "others_margin": 0.075405 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04138258844614029, "model_output": 0.0414, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0394 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0071 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0023 } ], "others": -0.0072, "total": 0.0414, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.615098 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.142417 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.079776 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.065235 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.047735 } ], "others_margin": -0.158893 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.052475184202194214, "model_output": 0.0525, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0274 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0044 } ], "others": -0.0094, "total": 0.0525, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.388064 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.15332 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.081651 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.0776 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.074493 } ], "others_margin": -0.165507 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03662968799471855, "model_output": 0.0366, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0426 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0078 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0048 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0022 } ], "others": -0.0118, "total": 0.0366, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.599547 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.162162 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.103952 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.05476 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.047439 } ], "others_margin": -0.281902 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.04169392213225365, "model_output": 0.0417, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0379 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0038 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0109, "total": 0.0417, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.490832 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.175047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.096129 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.081001 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.064601 } ], "others_margin": -0.23458 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.13468150794506073, "model_output": 0.1347, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1334 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0453 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0055 } ], "others": -0.0141, "total": 0.1347, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.530814 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.271517 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.145068 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.131046 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.037937 } ], "others_margin": -0.099388 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4512183666229248, "model_output": 0.4512, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.399 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1908 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0736 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.024 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.022 } ], "others": -0.0211, "total": 0.4512, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.39903 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.190817 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.073627 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.023955 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.022011 } ], "others_margin": -0.021081 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.706933498382568, "model_output": 6.7069, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0854 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0373 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0274 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0093 } ], "others": 0.0004, "total": 6.7069, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08536 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.037796 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.037328 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.027401 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.00927 } ], "others_margin": 0.000419 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4353, "expected_assists": 0.0413, "assists": 0.0524, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "expected_goals": 0.0365, "goals": 0.0416, "goal_rate": 0.0416, "shots_on_target": 0.1344, "total_shots": 0.4502, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 18.18, "total_pass": 10.3021, "accurate_pass": 9.0495, "duels_won": 0.9831, "total_long_balls": 0.4659, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3209, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2744, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8747, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7752, "crosses_total": 1.451, "crosses_accurate": 0.2952, "touches": 15.2515, "possession_lost": 3.5151, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.4208, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2806, "tackles": 0.3523, "clearances": 0.0196, "total_contest": 0.3498, "won_contest": 0.1487, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1706, "fouls_drawn": 0.4822, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1383, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.2872, "total_progression": 5.2424, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3158 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9977, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0005)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4353, "expected_assists": 0.0413, "assists": 0.0524, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "expected_goals": 0.0365, "goals": 0.0416, "goal_rate": 0.0416, "shots_on_target": 0.1351, "total_shots": 0.4507, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 18.18, "total_pass": 10.3021, "accurate_pass": 9.0495, "duels_won": 0.9831, "total_long_balls": 0.4659, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3209, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2744, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8747, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7752, "crosses_total": 1.4523, "crosses_accurate": 0.2952, "touches": 15.2515, "possession_lost": 3.5151, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.4208, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2814, "tackles": 0.3523, "clearances": 0.0196, "total_contest": 0.3498, "won_contest": 0.1487, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1705, "fouls_drawn": 0.482, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1383, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.2872, "total_progression": 5.2424, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3158 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0005, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.202, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.2 to 13.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3158, "expected_assists": 0.03, "assists": 0.038, "assist_rate": 0.038, "expected_goals": 0.0265, "goals": 0.0302, "goal_rate": 0.0302, "shots_on_target": 0.098, "total_shots": 0.3271, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2291, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.19, "projection_minutes": 18.18, "minutes_scale": 0.7255, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3158, "expected_assists": 0.03, "assists": 0.038, "assist_rate": 0.038, "expected_goals": 0.0265, "goals": 0.0302, "goal_rate": 0.0302, "shots_on_target": 0.098, "total_shots": 0.3271, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2291, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.16 (squad xG sum 0.9447, xG scale 1.2311, xA scale 1.2311, team xA 0.90 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3158, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "assist_rate": 0.038, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0326, "goal_rate": 0.0302, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.098, "total_shots": 0.3271, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2291, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0484, "creation_factor": 1.1 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.163, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9447, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7333, "team_expected_assists": 0.9028, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7763, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2311, "xa_scale": 1.2311, "opponent_lambda": 2.713, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0265, "after": 0.0326 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.03, "after": 0.0369 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3158, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "assist_rate": 0.038, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0326, "goal_rate": 0.0302, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.098, "total_shots": 0.3271, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2291, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0484, "creation_factor": 1.1, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2212, "fifa_rank": 1260.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3158, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "assist_rate": 0.038, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0326, "goal_rate": 0.0302, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.098, "total_shots": 0.3271, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2291, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0222, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0484, "creation_factor": 1.1, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0222, "scorer_weight": 0.0237, "squad_weight_total": 1.2116, "weight_share": 0.0195, "finishing_factor": 1.0484, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.329, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.329, "runner_up": "Mariano Díaz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2236 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3158, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "assist_rate": 0.038, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0326, "goal_rate": 0.0302, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.098, "total_shots": 0.3271, "rating": 6.7069, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4744, "accurate_pass": 6.5656, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6501, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9156, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0653, "possession_lost": 2.5503, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.0308, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 3.1105, "total_progression": 3.8035, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2291, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0222, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0251, "finishing_factor": 1.0484, "creation_factor": 1.1, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0251, "provider_weight": 0.0281, "squad_weight_total": 0.9183, "weight_share": 0.0306, "creation_factor": 1.1, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.2296, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2296, "runner_up": "Denis Suárez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1582, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Toni Martínez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Miguel Rodríguez": { "player_id": 1014118, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 179, "market_value": 4099999, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1028, "goal_rate": 0.1076, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 3.1428, "dispossessed": 0.7696, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0548, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0231, "finishing_factor": 1.1805, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4196, "combined_rank_score": 2227.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 4258.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6222, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Miguel Rodríguez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "José Sosa", "ranking": 4191 }, { "player_name": "Jason Knight", "ranking": 4192 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Marín", "ranking": 4193 }, { "player_name": "Yvan Neyou", "ranking": 4194 }, { "player_name": "Sidiki Cherif", "ranking": 4195 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Federico Navarro", "ranking": 4197 }, { "player_name": "Yukinari Sugawara", "ranking": 4198 }, { "player_name": "Patrick Pentz", "ranking": 4199 }, { "player_name": "Álex Sancris", "ranking": 4200 }, { "player_name": "Bartosz Slisz", "ranking": 4201 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.346242177473513, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.561192826248796, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9899, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Alavés", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (3 historical appearances) to 25.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.56); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0563, "goals": 0.0724, "goal_rate": 0.0724, "shots_on_target": 0.2136, "total_shots": 0.592, "expected_assists": 0.0229, "key_pass": 0.3763, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 12.79, "total_pass": 2.1662, "accurate_pass": 1.4966, "duels_won": 0.7775, "total_long_balls": 0.3304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3304, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1662, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4966, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.449, "possession_lost": 2.1166, "dispossessed": 0.7775, "duels_lost": 1.0583, "aerial_lost": 0.2809, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1662, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3887, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3887, "tackles": 0.3887, "clearances": 0.2809, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8853, "total_progression": 15.6129, "progressive_carries": 0.3887, "shots_off_target": 0.3784 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 2.1662, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 1.4966, "accuratePass": 1.4966, "totalShots": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.05631077289581299, "model_output": 0.0563, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0872 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0038 } ], "others": -0.0183, "total": 0.0563, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.57705 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.201003 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.078216 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.076061 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.0499 } ], "others_margin": -0.279962 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07244747877120972, "model_output": 0.0724, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0631 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0224 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0168, "total": 0.0724, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.370946 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.173118 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.101268 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.092761 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.086369 } ], "others_margin": -0.209566 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.21355248987674713, "model_output": 0.2136, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2125 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0258 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0129 } ], "others": -0.035, "total": 0.2136, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.503772 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.082873 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.069824 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.06327 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.050463 } ], "others_margin": -0.151877 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5919376611709595, "model_output": 0.5919, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4714 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1321 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0521 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0318 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0306 } ], "others": -0.13, "total": 0.5919, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.471368 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.132136 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.052069 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.031848 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.03061 } ], "others_margin": -0.129958 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.022903988137841225, "model_output": 0.0229, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0016 } ], "others": 0.0012, "total": 0.0229, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.398771 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.264452 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.207481 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.149269 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.07198 } ], "others_margin": 0.059965 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.37633222341537476, "model_output": 0.3763, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.287 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0562 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0483 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0345 } ], "others": -0.0079, "total": 0.3763, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.554824 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.156882 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.136209 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.099446 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.085933 } ], "others_margin": -0.020739 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.622249126434326, "model_output": 6.6222, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0425 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0144 } ], "others": -0.0654, "total": 6.6222, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.042524 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.017442 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.015225 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.01491 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014442 } ], "others_margin": -0.06519 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9899, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0557, "goals": 0.0717, "goal_rate": 0.0717, "shots_on_target": 0.2114, "total_shots": 0.586, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "key_pass": 0.3725, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 12.79, "total_pass": 2.1443, "accurate_pass": 1.4815, "duels_won": 0.7696, "total_long_balls": 0.3271, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3271, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1443, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4815, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.394, "possession_lost": 2.0952, "dispossessed": 0.7696, "duels_lost": 1.0476, "aerial_lost": 0.2781, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1544, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3848, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3848, "tackles": 0.3848, "clearances": 0.2781, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8663, "total_progression": 15.4552, "progressive_carries": 0.3848, "shots_off_target": 0.3746 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4099999, "quality_factor": 0.4511, "boost_factor": 0.9899, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.8 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0835, "goals": 0.1076, "goal_rate": 0.1076, "shots_on_target": 0.3171, "total_shots": 0.879, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "key_pass": 0.5587, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 3.2165, "accurate_pass": 2.2222, "duels_won": 1.1544, "total_long_balls": 0.4907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4907, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2165, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2222, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.091, "possession_lost": 3.1428, "dispossessed": 0.7696, "duels_lost": 1.5714, "aerial_lost": 0.2781, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7316, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5772, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5772, "tackles": 0.5772, "clearances": 0.4172, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7995, "total_progression": 23.1828, "progressive_carries": 0.5772, "shots_off_target": 0.5619, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.35, "projection_minutes": 12.79, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.561 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0835, "goals": 0.1076, "goal_rate": 0.1076, "shots_on_target": 0.3171, "total_shots": 0.879, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "key_pass": 0.5587, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 3.2165, "accurate_pass": 2.2222, "duels_won": 1.1544, "total_long_balls": 0.4907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4907, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2165, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2222, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.091, "possession_lost": 3.1428, "dispossessed": 0.7696, "duels_lost": 1.5714, "aerial_lost": 0.2781, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7316, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5772, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5772, "tackles": 0.5772, "clearances": 0.4172, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7995, "total_progression": 23.1828, "progressive_carries": 0.5772, "shots_off_target": 0.5619, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.16 (squad xG sum 0.9447, xG scale 1.2311, xA scale 1.2311, team xA 0.90 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1028, "goal_rate": 0.1076, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3171, "total_shots": 0.879, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 0.5587, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 3.2165, "accurate_pass": 2.2222, "duels_won": 1.1544, "total_long_balls": 0.4907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4907, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2165, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2222, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.091, "possession_lost": 3.1428, "dispossessed": 0.7696, "duels_lost": 1.5714, "aerial_lost": 0.2781, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7316, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5772, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5772, "tackles": 0.5772, "clearances": 0.4172, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7995, "total_progression": 23.1828, "progressive_carries": 0.5772, "shots_off_target": 0.5619, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1805, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.163, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9447, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7333, "team_expected_assists": 0.9028, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7763, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2311, "xa_scale": 1.2311, "opponent_lambda": 2.713, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.561 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0835, "after": 0.1028 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0341, "after": 0.042 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1028, "goal_rate": 0.1076, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3171, "total_shots": 0.879, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 0.5587, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 3.2165, "accurate_pass": 2.2222, "duels_won": 1.1544, "total_long_balls": 0.4907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4907, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2165, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2222, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.091, "possession_lost": 3.1428, "dispossessed": 0.7696, "duels_lost": 1.5714, "aerial_lost": 0.2781, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7316, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5772, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5772, "tackles": 0.5772, "clearances": 0.4172, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7995, "total_progression": 23.1828, "progressive_carries": 0.5772, "shots_off_target": 0.5619, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1805, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4196, "fifa_rank": 4258.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1028, "goal_rate": 0.1076, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3171, "total_shots": 0.879, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 0.5587, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 3.2165, "accurate_pass": 2.2222, "duels_won": 1.1544, "total_long_balls": 0.4907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4907, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2165, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2222, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.091, "possession_lost": 3.1428, "dispossessed": 0.7696, "duels_lost": 1.5714, "aerial_lost": 0.2781, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7316, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5772, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5772, "tackles": 0.5772, "clearances": 0.4172, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7995, "total_progression": 23.1828, "progressive_carries": 0.5772, "shots_off_target": 0.5619, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0548, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1805, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0548, "scorer_weight": 0.0681, "squad_weight_total": 1.2116, "weight_share": 0.0562, "finishing_factor": 1.1805, "appearance_weight": 0.561, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.329, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.329, "runner_up": "Mariano Díaz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2236 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1028, "goal_rate": 0.1076, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3171, "total_shots": 0.879, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 0.5587, "rating": 6.6222, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 3.2165, "accurate_pass": 2.2222, "duels_won": 1.1544, "total_long_balls": 0.4907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4907, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2165, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2222, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.091, "possession_lost": 3.1428, "dispossessed": 0.7696, "duels_lost": 1.5714, "aerial_lost": 0.2781, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7316, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5772, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5772, "tackles": 0.5772, "clearances": 0.4172, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7995, "total_progression": 23.1828, "progressive_carries": 0.5772, "shots_off_target": 0.5619, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0548, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0231, "finishing_factor": 1.1805, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0231, "provider_weight": 0.0188, "squad_weight_total": 0.9183, "weight_share": 0.0205, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.561, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.2296, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2296, "runner_up": "Denis Suárez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1582, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Toni Martínez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Carlos Vicente": { "player_id": 1084399, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 179, "market_value": 7400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0623, "assist_rate": 0.0526, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.0314, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7633, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1131, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.017, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0307, "finishing_factor": 1.0476, "creation_factor": 1.0199, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083096, "match_date": "2026-01-25", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3229, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083233, "match_date": "2026-01-18", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.225, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083214, "match_date": "2026-01-10", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0507, "expected_assists": 0.2028, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083194, "match_date": "2026-01-04", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0346, "expected_assists": 0.453, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083188, "match_date": "2025-12-20", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.046, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083164, "match_date": "2025-12-14", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2448, "expected_assists": 0.1683, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083150, "match_date": "2025-12-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 39, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 5, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083144, "match_date": "2025-11-29", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1676, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083121, "match_date": "2025-11-22", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083114, "match_date": "2025-11-08", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3619, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3136, "combined_rank_score": 1102.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 393.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9476, "sofascore_appearances": 21.0, "fifa_rank": 1812.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7633, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Carlos Vicente", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Patrick Wimmer", "ranking": 3131 }, { "player_name": "Thomas Lemar", "ranking": 3132 }, { "player_name": "Robert Navarro", "ranking": 3133 }, { "player_name": "Luka Sučić", "ranking": 3134 }, { "player_name": "Che Adams", "ranking": 3135 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lautaro Di Lollo", "ranking": 3137 }, { "player_name": "Hugo Larsson", "ranking": 3138 }, { "player_name": "Kasper Dolberg", "ranking": 3139 }, { "player_name": "Matt Grimes", "ranking": 3140 }, { "player_name": "Sem Steijn", "ranking": 3141 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 21, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 21, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.18617755459381, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5084626161179004, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9992, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (21 historical appearances) to 22.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.51)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7614, "expected_assists": 0.08, "assists": 0.0832, "assist_rate": 0.0832, "expected_goals": 0.0439, "goals": 0.0495, "goal_rate": 0.0495, "shots_on_target": 0.1833, "total_shots": 0.6139, "rating": 6.7633, "minutes": 35.02, "total_pass": 14.832, "accurate_pass": 11.3101, "duels_won": 2.4218, "total_long_balls": 0.5808, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2485, "total_own_half_passes": 5.1988, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3139, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6333, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9962, "crosses_total": 4.8483, "crosses_accurate": 1.7393, "touches": 27.1534, "possession_lost": 8.6972, "dispossessed": 0.1484, "duels_lost": 1.9858, "aerial_won": 0.4198, "aerial_lost": 0.447, "interceptions": 0.4185, "tackles_won": 0.1868, "tackles": 0.3005, "clearances": 0.5118, "total_contest": 1.1897, "won_contest": 0.5922, "challenges_lost": 0.4217, "fouls": 0.3711, "fouls_drawn": 1.1093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6422, "big_chances_missed": 0.0704, "xgot": 0.1452, "ball_carries": 7.765, "total_progression": 14.6888, "progressive_carries": 1.3428, "shots_off_target": 0.4306 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-01-25", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1551, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-18", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1318, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-10", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1121, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-04", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0953, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-20", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.081, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-14", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0688, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-06", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 39.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0585, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2025-11-29", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0497, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2025-11-22", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0423, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2025-11-08", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0359, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.648, "creative_index": 0.6744, "expectedGoals": 0.1199, "expectedAssists": 0.1494, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2785 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7613584995269775, "model_output": 0.7614, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3854 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0489 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0525 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0328 } ], "others": 0.0767, "total": 0.7614, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.570726 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.094687 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.085102 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.083944 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.049081 } ], "others_margin": 0.106075 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07995913177728653, "model_output": 0.08, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0061 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0046 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0043 } ], "others": 0.0109, "total": 0.08, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.517754 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.204488 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.092543 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.065031 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.060867 } ], "others_margin": 0.146364 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.08317757397890091, "model_output": 0.0832, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0095 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0074 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0041 } ], "others": 0.0014, "total": 0.0832, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.239295 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.13271 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.091903 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.078131 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.051139 } ], "others_margin": 0.017303 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.04385197535157204, "model_output": 0.0439, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0423 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0025 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0023 } ], "others": -0.005, "total": 0.0439, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.593205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.156749 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.126725 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.047079 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.045974 } ], "others_margin": -0.110784 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.049496423453092575, "model_output": 0.0495, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0405 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.006 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0032 } ], "others": -0.0045, "total": 0.0495, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.535981 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.16648 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.11671 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.06594 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.061301 } ], "others_margin": -0.089053 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.18333138525485992, "model_output": 0.1833, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1515 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0079 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0056 } ], "others": 0.0054, "total": 0.1833, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.630213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.100306 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.08247 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.044182 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.031074 } ], "others_margin": 0.029847 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6139366626739502, "model_output": 0.6139, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.362 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1542 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0965 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0665 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0268 } ], "others": 0.0034, "total": 0.6139, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.362009 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.154199 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.096461 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.066497 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.026846 } ], "others_margin": 0.003567 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.763299465179443, "model_output": 6.7633, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0794 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0322 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0208 } ], "others": -0.0437, "total": 6.7633, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.07943 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.063768 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.032229 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.026714 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.020846 } ], "others_margin": -0.043549 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9992, quality 0.491)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7607, "expected_assists": 0.0799, "assists": 0.0831, "assist_rate": 0.0831, "expected_goals": 0.0438, "goals": 0.0495, "goal_rate": 0.0495, "shots_on_target": 0.1832, "total_shots": 0.6135, "rating": 6.7633, "minutes": 35.02, "total_pass": 14.8201, "accurate_pass": 11.3011, "duels_won": 2.4199, "total_long_balls": 0.5803, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2483, "total_own_half_passes": 5.1946, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3104, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6256, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9906, "crosses_total": 4.8444, "crosses_accurate": 1.7379, "touches": 27.1317, "possession_lost": 8.6902, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.9842, "aerial_won": 0.4195, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.4182, "tackles_won": 0.1867, "tackles": 0.3003, "clearances": 0.5114, "total_contest": 1.1887, "won_contest": 0.5917, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.3708, "fouls_drawn": 1.1084, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6417, "big_chances_missed": 0.0703, "xgot": 0.1451, "ball_carries": 7.7588, "total_progression": 14.677, "progressive_carries": 1.3417, "shots_off_target": 0.4303 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7400000, "quality_factor": 0.4915, "boost_factor": 0.9992, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 21, "history_shrink": 0.1923, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 35.0 to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4819, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "assists": 0.0526, "assist_rate": 0.0526, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goals": 0.0314, "goal_rate": 0.0314, "shots_on_target": 0.1161, "total_shots": 0.3887, "rating": 6.7633, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.0919, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.2726, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.19, "projection_minutes": 35.02, "minutes_scale": 0.6335, "appearance_probability": 0.508 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4819, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "assists": 0.0526, "assist_rate": 0.0526, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goals": 0.0314, "goal_rate": 0.0314, "shots_on_target": 0.1161, "total_shots": 0.3887, "rating": 6.7633, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.0919, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.2726, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.16 (squad xG sum 0.9447, xG scale 1.2311, xA scale 1.2311, team xA 0.90 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4819, "expected_assists": 0.0623, "assist_rate": 0.0526, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.0314, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1161, "total_shots": 0.3887, "rating": 6.7633, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.1131, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.2726, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0476, "creation_factor": 1.0199 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.163, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9447, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7333, "team_expected_assists": 0.9028, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7763, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2311, "xa_scale": 1.2311, "opponent_lambda": 2.713, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.508 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0277, "after": 0.0341 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0506, "after": 0.0623 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4819, "expected_assists": 0.0623, "assist_rate": 0.0526, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.0314, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1161, "total_shots": 0.3887, "rating": 6.7633, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.1131, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.2726, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0476, "creation_factor": 1.0199, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3136, "fifa_rank": 1812.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4819, "expected_assists": 0.0623, "assist_rate": 0.0526, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.0314, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1161, "total_shots": 0.3887, "rating": 6.7633, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.1131, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.2726, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.017, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0476, "creation_factor": 1.0199, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.017, "scorer_weight": 0.0181, "squad_weight_total": 1.2116, "weight_share": 0.015, "finishing_factor": 1.0476, "appearance_weight": 0.508, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.329, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.329, "runner_up": "Mariano Díaz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2236 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4819, "expected_assists": 0.0623, "assist_rate": 0.0526, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.0314, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1161, "total_shots": 0.3887, "rating": 6.7633, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.1131, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.2726, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.399, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.017, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0307, "finishing_factor": 1.0476, "creation_factor": 1.0199, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0307, "provider_weight": 0.0323, "squad_weight_total": 0.9183, "weight_share": 0.0352, "creation_factor": 1.0199, "appearance_weight": 0.508, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.2296, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2296, "runner_up": "Denis Suárez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1582, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Toni Martínez" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.16, "expected_assists": 0.9, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 308, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.84, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3 } }, "Atlético Madrid": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Jonathan David": { "player_id": 935564, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 180, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.7492, "goal_rate": 0.6256, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.1497, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.2255, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 4.4453, "dispossessed": 1.5541, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.3431, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 1.5955, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 48, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1528, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.304, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.5273, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.139, "finishing_factor": 1.1531, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5928, "expected_assists": 0.231, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416335, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 1.4628, "expected_assists": 0.3606, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2584, "expected_assists": 0.0115, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1190, "combined_rank_score": 524.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 310.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0333, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 738.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.2255, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jonathan David", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Fernando Calero", "ranking": 1185 }, { "player_name": "Diego Rubio", "ranking": 1186 }, { "player_name": "Ismaïla Sarr", "ranking": 1187 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Danso", "ranking": 1188 }, { "player_name": "Folarin Balogun", "ranking": 1189 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Gerard Martín", "ranking": 1191 }, { "player_name": "Keelan Lebon", "ranking": 1192 }, { "player_name": "Sukhrob Nurullaev", "ranking": 1193 }, { "player_name": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "ranking": 1194 }, { "player_name": "Choi Hee-won", "ranking": 1195 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0384, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4477, "goals": 0.5226, "goal_rate": 0.5226, "shots_on_target": 0.9923, "total_shots": 2.3752, "expected_assists": 0.0846, "key_pass": 1.2554, "rating": 7.2255, "minutes": 72.38, "total_pass": 12.4704, "accurate_pass": 11.0166, "duels_won": 1.6608, "total_long_balls": 0.2809, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5287, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3557, "crosses_total": 0.3304, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.7182, "possession_lost": 4.2809, "dispossessed": 1.4966, "duels_lost": 2.2741, "aerial_lost": 0.7775, "total_contest": 0.2809, "won_contest": 0.2809, "ball_recovery": 2.1662, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6608, "assists": 0.3304, "assist_rate": 0.3304, "interceptions": 0.3887, "tackles_won": 0.3887, "tackles": 0.3887, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6608, "big_chances_missed": 0.9913, "xgot": 0.9534, "offsides": 0.3887, "ball_carries": 4.38, "total_progression": 46.3174, "progressive_carries": 1.8834, "shots_off_target": 1.3829 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.7863, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 9.5287, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 8.3557, "accuratePass": 11.0165, "totalShots": 3.3217 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.44772762060165405, "model_output": 0.4477, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.072 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0786 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0331 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0351 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0238 } ], "others": 0.0061, "total": 0.4477, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.308814 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.254675 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.090358 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.08768 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.055347 } ], "others_margin": 0.014233 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.5226017832756042, "model_output": 0.5226, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.077 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0833 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0459 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0477 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0481 } ], "others": 0.0169, "total": 0.5226, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.320722 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.259692 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.118738 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.109975 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.099873 } ], "others_margin": 0.032928 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.9923414587974548, "model_output": 0.9923, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2005 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1264 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0895 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0986 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0746 } ], "others": -0.1343, "total": 0.9923, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.317325 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.158183 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.098627 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.098406 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.068535 } ], "others_margin": -0.12697 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.3752031326293945, "model_output": 2.3752, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5303 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3263 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.1122 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0868 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0839 } ], "others": -0.143, "total": 2.3752, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.530271 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.326342 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.112189 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.086803 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.083852 } ], "others_margin": -0.142961 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08464255183935165, "model_output": 0.0846, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0156 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0041 } ], "others": 0.0071, "total": 0.0846, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.217072 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.137142 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.110483 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.058749 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.054576 } ], "others_margin": 0.088896 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.2554266452789307, "model_output": 1.2554, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.261 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.1188 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0575 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0453 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0432 } ], "others": 0.2612, "total": 1.2554, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.327294 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.119575 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.056083 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.046555 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.044412 } ], "others_margin": 0.233392 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.225502967834473, "model_output": 7.2255, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.1013 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0905 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0802 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0766 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0749 } ], "others": 0.0398, "total": 7.2255, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.101346 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.090534 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.080242 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.076607 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.074909 } ], "others_margin": 0.039702 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0384, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4649, "goals": 0.5427, "goal_rate": 0.5427, "shots_on_target": 1.0304, "total_shots": 2.4665, "expected_assists": 0.0879, "key_pass": 1.3036, "rating": 7.2255, "minutes": 72.38, "total_pass": 12.9493, "accurate_pass": 11.4396, "duels_won": 1.7246, "total_long_balls": 0.2917, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6766, "crosses_total": 0.3431, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.5522, "possession_lost": 4.4453, "dispossessed": 1.5541, "duels_lost": 2.3614, "aerial_lost": 0.8074, "total_contest": 0.2917, "won_contest": 0.2917, "ball_recovery": 2.2494, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6862, "assists": 0.3431, "assist_rate": 0.3431, "interceptions": 0.4036, "tackles_won": 0.4036, "tackles": 0.4036, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6862, "big_chances_missed": 1.0294, "xgot": 0.99, "offsides": 0.4036, "ball_carries": 4.5482, "total_progression": 48.096, "progressive_carries": 1.9557, "shots_off_target": 1.436 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0384, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4649, "goals": 0.5427, "goal_rate": 0.5427, "shots_on_target": 1.0304, "total_shots": 2.4665, "expected_assists": 0.0879, "key_pass": 1.3036, "rating": 7.2255, "minutes": 72.38, "total_pass": 12.9493, "accurate_pass": 11.4396, "duels_won": 1.7246, "total_long_balls": 0.2917, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6766, "crosses_total": 0.3431, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.5522, "possession_lost": 4.4453, "dispossessed": 1.5541, "duels_lost": 2.3614, "aerial_lost": 0.8074, "total_contest": 0.2917, "won_contest": 0.2917, "ball_recovery": 2.2494, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6862, "assists": 0.3431, "assist_rate": 0.3431, "interceptions": 0.4036, "tackles_won": 0.4036, "tackles": 0.4036, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6862, "big_chances_missed": 1.0294, "xgot": 0.99, "offsides": 0.4036, "ball_carries": 4.5482, "total_progression": 48.096, "progressive_carries": 1.9557, "shots_off_target": 1.436 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5359, "goals": 0.6256, "goal_rate": 0.6256, "shots_on_target": 1.1878, "total_shots": 2.8434, "expected_assists": 0.0879, "key_pass": 1.3036, "rating": 7.2255, "minutes": 72.38, "total_pass": 12.9493, "accurate_pass": 11.4396, "duels_won": 1.7246, "total_long_balls": 0.2917, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6766, "crosses_total": 0.3431, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.5522, "possession_lost": 4.4453, "dispossessed": 1.5541, "duels_lost": 2.3614, "aerial_lost": 0.8074, "total_contest": 0.2917, "won_contest": 0.2917, "ball_recovery": 2.2494, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6862, "assists": 0.3431, "assist_rate": 0.3431, "interceptions": 0.4036, "tackles_won": 0.4036, "tackles": 0.4036, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6862, "big_chances_missed": 1.1867, "xgot": 1.1413, "offsides": 0.4036, "ball_carries": 4.5482, "total_progression": 48.096, "progressive_carries": 1.9557, "shots_off_target": 1.6554, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1528, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.304, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.304, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.1528, "skill_edge": 0.116, "height_edge": -0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.71, "defender_skill": 0.4523, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "market_value": 3200000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4531 }, { "player": "Nicolás Valentini", "market_value": 3100000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4515 } ], "xg_override": 0.5359 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.4665, "after": 2.8434 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.436, "after": 1.6554 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.0304, "after": 1.1878 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 1.0294, "after": 1.1867 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.99, "after": 1.1413 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.5427, "after": 0.6256 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.4649, "after": 0.5359 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.71 (squad xG sum 1.9407, xG scale 1.3980, xA scale 1.7031, team xA 1.76 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.7492, "goal_rate": 0.6256, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.1878, "total_shots": 2.8434, "expected_assists": 0.1497, "key_pass": 1.3036, "rating": 7.2255, "minutes": 72.38, "total_pass": 12.9493, "accurate_pass": 11.4396, "duels_won": 1.7246, "total_long_balls": 0.2917, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6766, "crosses_total": 0.3431, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.5522, "possession_lost": 4.4453, "dispossessed": 1.5541, "duels_lost": 2.3614, "aerial_lost": 0.8074, "total_contest": 0.2917, "won_contest": 0.2917, "ball_recovery": 2.2494, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6862, "assist_rate": 0.3431, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4036, "tackles_won": 0.4036, "tackles": 0.4036, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6862, "big_chances_missed": 1.1867, "xgot": 1.5955, "offsides": 0.4036, "ball_carries": 4.5482, "total_progression": 48.096, "progressive_carries": 1.9557, "shots_off_target": 1.6554, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1528, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.304, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1531, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.713, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9407, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0355, "team_expected_assists": 1.7635, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.398, "xa_scale": 1.7031, "opponent_lambda": 1.163, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.5359, "after": 0.7492 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0879, "after": 0.1497 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.7492, "goal_rate": 0.6256, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.1878, "total_shots": 2.8434, "expected_assists": 0.1497, "key_pass": 1.3036, "rating": 7.2255, "minutes": 72.38, "total_pass": 12.9493, "accurate_pass": 11.4396, "duels_won": 1.7246, "total_long_balls": 0.2917, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6766, "crosses_total": 0.3431, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.5522, "possession_lost": 4.4453, "dispossessed": 1.5541, "duels_lost": 2.3614, "aerial_lost": 0.8074, "total_contest": 0.2917, "won_contest": 0.2917, "ball_recovery": 2.2494, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6862, "assist_rate": 0.3431, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4036, "tackles_won": 0.4036, "tackles": 0.4036, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6862, "big_chances_missed": 1.1867, "xgot": 1.5955, "offsides": 0.4036, "ball_carries": 4.5482, "total_progression": 48.096, "progressive_carries": 1.9557, "shots_off_target": 1.6554, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1528, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.304, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1531, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1190, "fifa_rank": 738.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.7492, "goal_rate": 0.6256, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1.1878, "total_shots": 2.8434, "expected_assists": 0.1497, "key_pass": 1.3036, "rating": 7.2255, "minutes": 72.38, "total_pass": 12.9493, "accurate_pass": 11.4396, "duels_won": 1.7246, "total_long_balls": 0.2917, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6766, "crosses_total": 0.3431, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.5522, "possession_lost": 4.4453, "dispossessed": 1.5541, "duels_lost": 2.3614, "aerial_lost": 0.8074, "total_contest": 0.2917, "won_contest": 0.2917, "ball_recovery": 2.2494, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6862, "assist_rate": 0.3431, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4036, "tackles_won": 0.4036, "tackles": 0.4036, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6862, "big_chances_missed": 1.1867, "xgot": 1.5955, "offsides": 0.4036, "ball_carries": 4.5482, "total_progression": 48.096, "progressive_carries": 1.9557, "shots_off_target": 1.6554, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1528, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.304, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.5273, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1531, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.5273, "scorer_weight": 0.8639, "squad_weight_total": 2.945, "weight_share": 0.2933, "finishing_factor": 1.1531, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jonathan David", "weight": 0.8639, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8639, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5239 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.5239, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5239, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4068 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.7492, "goal_rate": 0.6256, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1.1878, "total_shots": 2.8434, "expected_assists": 0.1497, "key_pass": 1.3036, "rating": 7.2255, "minutes": 72.38, "total_pass": 12.9493, "accurate_pass": 11.4396, "duels_won": 1.7246, "total_long_balls": 0.2917, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6766, "crosses_total": 0.3431, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.5522, "possession_lost": 4.4453, "dispossessed": 1.5541, "duels_lost": 2.3614, "aerial_lost": 0.8074, "total_contest": 0.2917, "won_contest": 0.2917, "ball_recovery": 2.2494, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6862, "assist_rate": 0.3431, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4036, "tackles_won": 0.4036, "tackles": 0.4036, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6862, "big_chances_missed": 1.1867, "xgot": 1.5955, "offsides": 0.4036, "ball_carries": 4.5482, "total_progression": 48.096, "progressive_carries": 1.9557, "shots_off_target": 1.6554, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1528, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.304, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.5273, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.139, "finishing_factor": 1.1531, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.139, "provider_weight": 0.1871, "squad_weight_total": 1.6801, "weight_share": 0.1114, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.2713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2713, "runner_up": "Marcos Llorente", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1959 } ] } } ] }, "Ademola Lookman": { "player_id": 824200, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 174, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5402, "goal_rate": 0.3732, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1512, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8477, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 33, "possession_lost": 8.4324, "dispossessed": 1.5095, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.3108, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1772, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.321, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4174, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1403, "finishing_factor": 0.9698, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0578, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416335, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7464, "expected_assists": 0.1954, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0408, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0443, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.211, "expected_assists": 0.0891, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0183, "expected_assists": 0.2017, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1539, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083735, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083661, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Girona FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8642, "expected_assists": 0.0829, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083634, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7884, "expected_assists": 0.095, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 451, "combined_rank_score": 272.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 236.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 308.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8477, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ademola Lookman", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Piero Hincapié", "ranking": 446 }, { "player_name": "Ha Jung-Woo", "ranking": 447 }, { "player_name": "Umar Adhamzoda", "ranking": 448 }, { "player_name": "Mateo Kovačić", "ranking": 449 }, { "player_name": "Jun-seok Lee", "ranking": 450 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Gonzalo Escalante", "ranking": 452 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Carreira", "ranking": 453 }, { "player_name": "Neto Moura", "ranking": 454 }, { "player_name": "Walter", "ranking": 455 }, { "player_name": "Gonzalo Plata", "ranking": 456 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.776, "history_matches": 19, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 19, "data_confidence": 0.776, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0185, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 233.0, "goals_per90": 0.3846153846153846, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.32, "shots_on_target_pct": 50.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1733 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 19 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Atlético Madrid, rel: 0.17, gls/90: 0.3846153846153846, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3223, "goals": 0.3116, "goal_rate": 0.3116, "shots_on_target": 0.7371, "total_shots": 1.9543, "expected_assists": 0.0872, "key_pass": 1.425, "rating": 6.8477, "minutes": 69.84, "total_pass": 21.0466, "accurate_pass": 17.4787, "duels_won": 2.5239, "total_long_balls": 0.2844, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1511, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0181, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4689, "crosses_total": 0.8856, "crosses_accurate": 0.2405, "touches": 32.4399, "possession_lost": 8.2792, "dispossessed": 1.4821, "duels_lost": 4.4964, "aerial_lost": 0.328, "total_contest": 2.1733, "won_contest": 0.7129, "ball_recovery": 1.6574, "challenges_lost": 0.2635, "fouls": 1.0442, "fouls_drawn": 1.131, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0199, "tackles_won": 0.3107, "tackles": 0.6203, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2024, "big_chances_missed": 0.5302, "xgot": 0.1854, "offsides": 0.502, "ball_carries": 11.5606, "total_progression": 38.7753, "progressive_carries": 2.628, "shots_off_target": 1.2172 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1572, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1336, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1136, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0965, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.082, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0697, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0593, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0504, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0428, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0364, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 19.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.2471, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 14.7034, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 12.4689, "accuratePass": 16.2675, "totalShots": 1.4096 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.3222830295562744, "model_output": 0.3223, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0738 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.044 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0096, "total": 0.3223, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.315441 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.149684 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.043693 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.038965 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.035892 } ], "others_margin": -0.029537 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.3115995526313782, "model_output": 0.3116, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0658 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0578 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.013 } ], "others": -0.0256, "total": 0.3116, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.27985 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.19413 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.063155 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.053661 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.039344 } ], "others_margin": -0.079001 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7370900511741638, "model_output": 0.7371, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2017 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0684 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.055 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0529 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0436 } ], "others": -0.0285, "total": 0.7371, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.318935 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.088523 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.065971 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.063294 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.055341 } ], "others_margin": -0.038045 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.9542630910873413, "model_output": 1.9543, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5237 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0412 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0408 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0379 } ], "others": 0.0252, "total": 1.9543, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.523664 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.06498 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.041184 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.040825 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.037854 } ], "others_margin": 0.025125 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08721254020929337, "model_output": 0.0872, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.008 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0082 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0067 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0048 } ], "others": -0.001, "total": 0.0872, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.138547 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.102535 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.095978 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.077108 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.055867 } ], "others_margin": -0.010771 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.4250476360321045, "model_output": 1.425, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1901 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.1042 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0902 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0781 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0465 } ], "others": 0.2419, "total": 1.425, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.248429 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.113848 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.089074 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.071178 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.040088 } ], "others_margin": 0.186149 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.847653865814209, "model_output": 6.8477, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0575 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0139 } ], "others": 0.034, "total": 6.8477, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057499 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.018614 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015399 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.014131 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.013871 } ], "others_margin": 0.034005 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0185, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3282, "goals": 0.3174, "goal_rate": 0.3174, "shots_on_target": 0.7507, "total_shots": 1.9904, "expected_assists": 0.0888, "key_pass": 1.4514, "rating": 6.8477, "minutes": 69.84, "total_pass": 21.436, "accurate_pass": 17.8021, "duels_won": 2.5706, "total_long_balls": 0.2897, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1539, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3144, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7181, "crosses_total": 0.902, "crosses_accurate": 0.2449, "touches": 33.04, "possession_lost": 8.4324, "dispossessed": 1.5095, "duels_lost": 4.5796, "aerial_lost": 0.3341, "total_contest": 2.2135, "won_contest": 0.7261, "ball_recovery": 1.6881, "challenges_lost": 0.2684, "fouls": 1.0635, "fouls_drawn": 1.1519, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0203, "tackles_won": 0.3164, "tackles": 0.6318, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2061, "big_chances_missed": 0.54, "xgot": 0.1888, "offsides": 0.5113, "ball_carries": 11.7745, "total_progression": 39.4926, "progressive_carries": 2.6766, "shots_off_target": 1.2397 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0185, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 19, "history_shrink": 0.2083, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0235)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3282, "goals": 0.317, "goal_rate": 0.317, "shots_on_target": 0.7542, "total_shots": 1.9859, "expected_assists": 0.0888, "key_pass": 1.4514, "rating": 6.8477, "minutes": 69.84, "total_pass": 21.436, "accurate_pass": 17.8021, "duels_won": 2.5706, "total_long_balls": 0.2897, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1539, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3144, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7181, "crosses_total": 0.8948, "crosses_accurate": 0.2449, "touches": 33.04, "possession_lost": 8.4324, "dispossessed": 1.5095, "duels_lost": 4.5796, "aerial_lost": 0.3341, "total_contest": 2.2135, "won_contest": 0.7261, "ball_recovery": 1.6881, "challenges_lost": 0.2684, "fouls": 1.0666, "fouls_drawn": 1.1599, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0268, "tackles_won": 0.316, "tackles": 0.6318, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2061, "big_chances_missed": 0.54, "xgot": 0.1888, "offsides": 0.5133, "ball_carries": 11.7745, "total_progression": 39.4926, "progressive_carries": 2.6766, "shots_off_target": 1.2397 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0235, "history_matches": 19, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.776, "prior_reliability": 0.1733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.1519, "after": 1.1599 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.902, "after": 0.8948 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.0203, "after": 0.0268 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3282, "goals": 0.317, "goal_rate": 0.317, "shots_on_target": 0.7542, "total_shots": 1.9939, "expected_assists": 0.0888, "key_pass": 1.4514, "rating": 6.8477, "minutes": 69.84, "total_pass": 21.436, "accurate_pass": 17.8021, "duels_won": 2.5706, "total_long_balls": 0.2897, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1539, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3144, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7181, "crosses_total": 0.8948, "crosses_accurate": 0.2449, "touches": 33.04, "possession_lost": 8.4324, "dispossessed": 1.5095, "duels_lost": 4.5796, "aerial_lost": 0.3341, "total_contest": 2.2135, "won_contest": 0.7261, "ball_recovery": 1.6881, "challenges_lost": 0.2684, "fouls": 1.0666, "fouls_drawn": 1.1599, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0268, "tackles_won": 0.316, "tackles": 0.6318, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2061, "big_chances_missed": 0.54, "xgot": 0.1888, "offsides": 0.5133, "ball_carries": 11.7745, "total_progression": 39.4926, "progressive_carries": 2.6766, "shots_off_target": 1.2397 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3864, "goals": 0.3732, "goal_rate": 0.3732, "shots_on_target": 0.8878, "total_shots": 2.3472, "expected_assists": 0.0888, "key_pass": 1.4514, "rating": 6.8477, "minutes": 69.84, "total_pass": 21.436, "accurate_pass": 17.8021, "duels_won": 2.5706, "total_long_balls": 0.2897, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1539, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3144, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7181, "crosses_total": 0.8948, "crosses_accurate": 0.2449, "touches": 33.04, "possession_lost": 8.4324, "dispossessed": 1.5095, "duels_lost": 4.5796, "aerial_lost": 0.3341, "total_contest": 2.2135, "won_contest": 0.7261, "ball_recovery": 1.6881, "challenges_lost": 0.2684, "fouls": 1.0666, "fouls_drawn": 1.1599, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0268, "tackles_won": 0.316, "tackles": 0.6318, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2061, "big_chances_missed": 0.6357, "xgot": 0.2223, "offsides": 0.5133, "ball_carries": 11.7745, "total_progression": 39.4926, "progressive_carries": 2.6766, "shots_off_target": 1.4594, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1772, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.321, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.321, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.1772, "skill_edge": 0.1566, "height_edge": -0.036, "attacker_skill": 0.8002, "defender_skill": 0.4523, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "market_value": 3200000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4531 }, { "player": "Nicolás Valentini", "market_value": 3100000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4515 } ], "xg_override": 0.3864 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.9939, "after": 2.3472 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.2397, "after": 1.4594 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7542, "after": 0.8878 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.54, "after": 0.6357 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3282, "after": 0.3864 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.317, "after": 0.3732 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1888, "after": 0.2223 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.71 (squad xG sum 1.9407, xG scale 1.3980, xA scale 1.7031, team xA 1.76 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5402, "goal_rate": 0.3732, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8878, "total_shots": 2.3472, "expected_assists": 0.1512, "key_pass": 1.4514, "rating": 6.8477, "minutes": 69.84, "total_pass": 21.436, "accurate_pass": 17.8021, "duels_won": 2.5706, "total_long_balls": 0.2897, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1539, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3144, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7181, "crosses_total": 0.8948, "crosses_accurate": 0.2449, "touches": 33.04, "possession_lost": 8.4324, "dispossessed": 1.5095, "duels_lost": 4.5796, "aerial_lost": 0.3341, "total_contest": 2.2135, "won_contest": 0.7261, "ball_recovery": 1.6881, "challenges_lost": 0.2684, "fouls": 1.0666, "fouls_drawn": 1.1599, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0268, "tackles_won": 0.316, "tackles": 0.6318, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2061, "big_chances_missed": 0.6357, "xgot": 0.3108, "offsides": 0.5133, "ball_carries": 11.7745, "total_progression": 39.4926, "progressive_carries": 2.6766, "shots_off_target": 1.4594, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1772, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.321, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9698, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.713, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9407, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0355, "team_expected_assists": 1.7635, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.398, "xa_scale": 1.7031, "opponent_lambda": 1.163, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.3864, "after": 0.5402 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0888, "after": 0.1512 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5402, "goal_rate": 0.3732, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8878, "total_shots": 2.3472, "expected_assists": 0.1512, "key_pass": 1.4514, "rating": 6.8477, "minutes": 69.84, "total_pass": 21.436, "accurate_pass": 17.8021, "duels_won": 2.5706, "total_long_balls": 0.2897, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1539, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3144, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7181, "crosses_total": 0.8948, "crosses_accurate": 0.2449, "touches": 33.04, "possession_lost": 8.4324, "dispossessed": 1.5095, "duels_lost": 4.5796, "aerial_lost": 0.3341, "total_contest": 2.2135, "won_contest": 0.7261, "ball_recovery": 1.6881, "challenges_lost": 0.2684, "fouls": 1.0666, "fouls_drawn": 1.1599, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0268, "tackles_won": 0.316, "tackles": 0.6318, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2061, "big_chances_missed": 0.6357, "xgot": 0.3108, "offsides": 0.5133, "ball_carries": 11.7745, "total_progression": 39.4926, "progressive_carries": 2.6766, "shots_off_target": 1.4594, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1772, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.321, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9698, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 451, "fifa_rank": 308.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5402, "goal_rate": 0.3732, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.8878, "total_shots": 2.3472, "expected_assists": 0.1512, "key_pass": 1.4514, "rating": 6.8477, "minutes": 69.84, "total_pass": 21.436, "accurate_pass": 17.8021, "duels_won": 2.5706, "total_long_balls": 0.2897, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1539, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3144, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7181, "crosses_total": 0.8948, "crosses_accurate": 0.2449, "touches": 33.04, "possession_lost": 8.4324, "dispossessed": 1.5095, "duels_lost": 4.5796, "aerial_lost": 0.3341, "total_contest": 2.2135, "won_contest": 0.7261, "ball_recovery": 1.6881, "challenges_lost": 0.2684, "fouls": 1.0666, "fouls_drawn": 1.1599, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0268, "tackles_won": 0.316, "tackles": 0.6318, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2061, "big_chances_missed": 0.6357, "xgot": 0.3108, "offsides": 0.5133, "ball_carries": 11.7745, "total_progression": 39.4926, "progressive_carries": 2.6766, "shots_off_target": 1.4594, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1772, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.321, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4174, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9698, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4174, "scorer_weight": 0.5239, "squad_weight_total": 2.945, "weight_share": 0.1779, "finishing_factor": 0.9698, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jonathan David", "weight": 0.8639, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8639, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5239 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.5239, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5239, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4068 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5402, "goal_rate": 0.3732, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.8878, "total_shots": 2.3472, "expected_assists": 0.1512, "key_pass": 1.4514, "rating": 6.8477, "minutes": 69.84, "total_pass": 21.436, "accurate_pass": 17.8021, "duels_won": 2.5706, "total_long_balls": 0.2897, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1539, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3144, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7181, "crosses_total": 0.8948, "crosses_accurate": 0.2449, "touches": 33.04, "possession_lost": 8.4324, "dispossessed": 1.5095, "duels_lost": 4.5796, "aerial_lost": 0.3341, "total_contest": 2.2135, "won_contest": 0.7261, "ball_recovery": 1.6881, "challenges_lost": 0.2684, "fouls": 1.0666, "fouls_drawn": 1.1599, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0268, "tackles_won": 0.316, "tackles": 0.6318, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2061, "big_chances_missed": 0.6357, "xgot": 0.3108, "offsides": 0.5133, "ball_carries": 11.7745, "total_progression": 39.4926, "progressive_carries": 2.6766, "shots_off_target": 1.4594, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1772, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.321, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4174, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1403, "finishing_factor": 0.9698, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1403, "provider_weight": 0.121, "squad_weight_total": 1.6801, "weight_share": 0.072, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.2713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2713, "runner_up": "Marcos Llorente", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1959 } ] } } ] }, "Giuliano Simeone": { "player_id": 1099352, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 173, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1924, "assist_rate": 0.0986, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1815, "goal_rate": 0.1641, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.861, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 26, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 13.1084, "dispossessed": 0.9454, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2146, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 42, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.175, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.539, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Antonio Blanco", "opponent_faced": "Antonio Blanco", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.166, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.175, "finishing_factor": 1.1908, "creation_factor": 0.9117, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0422, "expected_assists": 0.2204, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416335, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6425, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0505, "expected_assists": 0.1149, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2677, "expected_assists": 0.0438, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083735, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3379, "expected_assists": 0.023, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083661, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Girona FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0327, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083242, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1825, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 957, "combined_rank_score": 510.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 443.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9065, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 578.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.861, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Giuliano Simeone", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Seung-jae Lee", "ranking": 952 }, { "player_name": "Hyun-Jun Suk", "ranking": 953 }, { "player_name": "Theo Hernández", "ranking": 954 }, { "player_name": "Moussa Diaby", "ranking": 955 }, { "player_name": "Eduardo Camavinga", "ranking": 956 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Gerónimo Rulli", "ranking": 958 }, { "player_name": "Mohamed Simakan", "ranking": 959 }, { "player_name": "Nico González", "ranking": 960 }, { "player_name": "Gonçalo Guedes", "ranking": 961 }, { "player_name": "Samuel Klein", "ranking": 962 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.774, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 38, "data_confidence": 0.774, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0103, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 214.0, "goals_per90": 0.4166666666666667, "assists_per90": 0.4166666666666667, "shots_per90": 1.68, "shots_on_target_pct": 25.0, "prior_reliability": 0.16 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 38 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Atlético Madrid, rel: 0.16, gls/90: 0.4166666666666667, ast/90: 0.4166666666666667)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9699, "expected_assists": 0.1118, "assists": 0.0946, "assist_rate": 0.0946, "expected_goals": 0.1094, "goals": 0.1357, "goal_rate": 0.1357, "shots_on_target": 0.4106, "total_shots": 1.1805, "rating": 6.861, "minutes": 76.57, "total_pass": 33.3774, "accurate_pass": 26.0757, "duels_won": 5.0729, "total_long_balls": 0.7837, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5053, "total_own_half_passes": 11.546, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.4168, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.8315, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.659, "crosses_total": 1.5168, "crosses_accurate": 0.4555, "touches": 51.0889, "possession_lost": 12.9748, "dispossessed": 0.9358, "duels_lost": 5.7917, "aerial_won": 1.0634, "aerial_lost": 1.0779, "interceptions": 0.7635, "tackles_won": 1.5418, "tackles": 2.374, "clearances": 0.7675, "total_contest": 1.7203, "won_contest": 0.626, "challenges_lost": 1.8487, "fouls": 1.0454, "fouls_drawn": 1.0095, "blocks": 0.1651, "big_chances_created": 0.2737, "big_chances_missed": 0.1062, "xgot": 0.1293, "ball_carries": 10.9532, "total_progression": 41.2485, "progressive_carries": 1.8297, "shots_off_target": 0.7699 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 22.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.0787, "creative_index": 0.3272, "expectedGoals": 0.1415, "expectedAssists": 0.0915, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3237 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9698939919471741, "model_output": 0.9699, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1118 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0746 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0579 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0544 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0391 } ], "others": 0.0109, "total": 0.9699, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118787 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.077642 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.064701 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.060988 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.041594 } ], "others_margin": 0.011221 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.11180512607097626, "model_output": 0.1118, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0099 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0057 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0055 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.004 } ], "others": 0.0127, "total": 0.1118, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.109309 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.072677 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.053825 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.051877 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.039354 } ], "others_margin": 0.120469 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.0945679098367691, "model_output": 0.0946, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0068 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0069 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0067 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0057 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0051 } ], "others": -0.0104, "total": 0.0946, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.076967 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.071788 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.065378 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.055529 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.049894 } ], "others_margin": -0.10453 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.10939852893352509, "model_output": 0.1094, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0059 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0048 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0043 } ], "others": -0.0012, "total": 0.1094, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.181089 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.10458 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.047961 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.04063 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.038507 } ], "others_margin": -0.011411 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.1357024908065796, "model_output": 0.1357, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0069 } ], "others": -0.0075, "total": 0.1357, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.15416 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.127813 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.108082 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.056677 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.049671 } ], "others_margin": -0.053925 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.4106312692165375, "model_output": 0.4106, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0378 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0401 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0245 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0126 } ], "others": -0.0173, "total": 0.4106, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.110475 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.1052 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.059189 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.032531 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.029024 } ], "others_margin": -0.041392 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1805174350738525, "model_output": 1.1805, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1633 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0416 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.038 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0223 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.017 } ], "others": -0.009, "total": 1.1805, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.16333 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.041632 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.038018 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.022281 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.017015 } ], "others_margin": -0.00896 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.860988140106201, "model_output": 6.861, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0333 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0099 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0087 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.008 } ], "others": -0.0246, "total": 6.861, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033284 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.023184 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.009912 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.008746 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.008037 } ], "others_margin": -0.02468 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0103, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9799, "expected_assists": 0.113, "assists": 0.0955, "assist_rate": 0.0955, "expected_goals": 0.1105, "goals": 0.1371, "goal_rate": 0.1371, "shots_on_target": 0.4149, "total_shots": 1.1927, "rating": 6.861, "minutes": 76.57, "total_pass": 33.7212, "accurate_pass": 26.3443, "duels_won": 5.1252, "total_long_balls": 0.7918, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5105, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6649, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5138, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8306, "crosses_total": 1.5324, "crosses_accurate": 0.4602, "touches": 51.6151, "possession_lost": 13.1084, "dispossessed": 0.9454, "duels_lost": 5.8514, "aerial_won": 1.0744, "aerial_lost": 1.089, "interceptions": 0.7714, "tackles_won": 1.5577, "tackles": 2.3985, "clearances": 0.7754, "total_contest": 1.738, "won_contest": 0.6324, "challenges_lost": 1.8677, "fouls": 1.0562, "fouls_drawn": 1.0199, "blocks": 0.1668, "big_chances_created": 0.2765, "big_chances_missed": 0.1073, "xgot": 0.1306, "ball_carries": 11.066, "total_progression": 41.6734, "progressive_carries": 1.8485, "shots_off_target": 0.7778 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0103, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0121)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9799, "expected_assists": 0.113, "assists": 0.0986, "assist_rate": 0.0986, "expected_goals": 0.1105, "goals": 0.1397, "goal_rate": 0.1397, "shots_on_target": 0.4142, "total_shots": 1.1956, "rating": 6.861, "minutes": 76.57, "total_pass": 33.7212, "accurate_pass": 26.3443, "duels_won": 5.1252, "total_long_balls": 0.7918, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5105, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6649, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5138, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8306, "crosses_total": 1.5267, "crosses_accurate": 0.4602, "touches": 51.6151, "possession_lost": 13.1084, "dispossessed": 0.9454, "duels_lost": 5.8514, "aerial_won": 1.0744, "aerial_lost": 1.089, "interceptions": 0.7792, "tackles_won": 1.5603, "tackles": 2.3985, "clearances": 0.7754, "total_contest": 1.738, "won_contest": 0.6324, "challenges_lost": 1.8677, "fouls": 1.052, "fouls_drawn": 1.0204, "blocks": 0.1668, "big_chances_created": 0.2765, "big_chances_missed": 0.1073, "xgot": 0.1306, "ball_carries": 11.066, "total_progression": 41.6734, "progressive_carries": 1.8485, "shots_off_target": 0.7778 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0121, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8508, "prior_reliability": 0.16, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.7714, "after": 0.7792 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.5324, "after": 1.5267 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9799, "expected_assists": 0.113, "assists": 0.0986, "assist_rate": 0.0986, "expected_goals": 0.1105, "goals": 0.1397, "goal_rate": 0.1397, "shots_on_target": 0.4142, "total_shots": 1.1956, "rating": 6.861, "minutes": 76.57, "total_pass": 33.7212, "accurate_pass": 26.3443, "duels_won": 5.1252, "total_long_balls": 0.7918, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5105, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6649, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5138, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8306, "crosses_total": 1.5267, "crosses_accurate": 0.4602, "touches": 51.6151, "possession_lost": 13.1084, "dispossessed": 0.9454, "duels_lost": 5.8514, "aerial_won": 1.0744, "aerial_lost": 1.089, "interceptions": 0.7792, "tackles_won": 1.5603, "tackles": 2.3985, "clearances": 0.7754, "total_contest": 1.738, "won_contest": 0.6324, "challenges_lost": 1.8677, "fouls": 1.052, "fouls_drawn": 1.0204, "blocks": 0.1668, "big_chances_created": 0.2765, "big_chances_missed": 0.1073, "xgot": 0.1306, "ball_carries": 11.066, "total_progression": 41.6734, "progressive_carries": 1.8485, "shots_off_target": 0.7778 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9799, "expected_assists": 0.113, "assists": 0.0986, "assist_rate": 0.0986, "expected_goals": 0.1298, "goals": 0.1641, "goal_rate": 0.1641, "shots_on_target": 0.4867, "total_shots": 1.4048, "rating": 6.861, "minutes": 76.57, "total_pass": 33.7212, "accurate_pass": 26.3443, "duels_won": 5.1252, "total_long_balls": 0.7918, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5105, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6649, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5138, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8306, "crosses_total": 1.5267, "crosses_accurate": 0.4602, "touches": 51.6151, "possession_lost": 13.1084, "dispossessed": 0.9454, "duels_lost": 5.8514, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.089, "interceptions": 0.7792, "tackles_won": 1.5603, "tackles": 2.3985, "clearances": 0.7754, "total_contest": 1.738, "won_contest": 0.6324, "challenges_lost": 1.8677, "fouls": 1.052, "fouls_drawn": 1.0204, "blocks": 0.1668, "big_chances_created": 0.2765, "big_chances_missed": 0.1261, "xgot": 0.1535, "ball_carries": 11.066, "total_progression": 41.6734, "progressive_carries": 1.8485, "shots_off_target": 0.9139, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.175, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.539, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Antonio Blanco", "opponent_faced": "Antonio Blanco", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Antonio Blanco", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.539, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.175, "skill_edge": 0.131, "height_edge": -0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.8301, "defender_skill": 0.5389, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Antonio Blanco", "market_value": 9700000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.5389 } ], "xg_override": 0.1298 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1956, "after": 1.4048 }, { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.0744, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7778, "after": 0.9139 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4142, "after": 0.4867 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1397, "after": 0.1641 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1306, "after": 0.1535 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1105, "after": 0.1298 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1073, "after": 0.1261 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.71 (squad xG sum 1.9407, xG scale 1.3980, xA scale 1.7031, team xA 1.76 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9799, "expected_assists": 0.1924, "assist_rate": 0.0986, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1815, "goal_rate": 0.1641, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4867, "total_shots": 1.4048, "rating": 6.861, "minutes": 76.57, "total_pass": 33.7212, "accurate_pass": 26.3443, "duels_won": 5.1252, "total_long_balls": 0.7918, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5105, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6649, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5138, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8306, "crosses_total": 1.5267, "crosses_accurate": 0.4602, "touches": 51.6151, "possession_lost": 13.1084, "dispossessed": 0.9454, "duels_lost": 5.8514, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.089, "interceptions": 0.7792, "tackles_won": 1.5603, "tackles": 2.3985, "clearances": 0.7754, "total_contest": 1.738, "won_contest": 0.6324, "challenges_lost": 1.8677, "fouls": 1.052, "fouls_drawn": 1.0204, "blocks": 0.1668, "big_chances_created": 0.2765, "big_chances_missed": 0.1261, "xgot": 0.2146, "ball_carries": 11.066, "total_progression": 41.6734, "progressive_carries": 1.8485, "shots_off_target": 0.9139, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.175, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.539, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Antonio Blanco", "opponent_faced": "Antonio Blanco", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1908, "creation_factor": 0.9117 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.713, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9407, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0355, "team_expected_assists": 1.7635, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.398, "xa_scale": 1.7031, "opponent_lambda": 1.163, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1298, "after": 0.1815 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.113, "after": 0.1924 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9799, "expected_assists": 0.1924, "assist_rate": 0.0986, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1815, "goal_rate": 0.1641, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4867, "total_shots": 1.4048, "rating": 6.861, "minutes": 76.57, "total_pass": 33.7212, "accurate_pass": 26.3443, "duels_won": 5.1252, "total_long_balls": 0.7918, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5105, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6649, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5138, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8306, "crosses_total": 1.5267, "crosses_accurate": 0.4602, "touches": 51.6151, "possession_lost": 13.1084, "dispossessed": 0.9454, "duels_lost": 5.8514, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.089, "interceptions": 0.7792, "tackles_won": 1.5603, "tackles": 2.3985, "clearances": 0.7754, "total_contest": 1.738, "won_contest": 0.6324, "challenges_lost": 1.8677, "fouls": 1.052, "fouls_drawn": 1.0204, "blocks": 0.1668, "big_chances_created": 0.2765, "big_chances_missed": 0.1261, "xgot": 0.2146, "ball_carries": 11.066, "total_progression": 41.6734, "progressive_carries": 1.8485, "shots_off_target": 0.9139, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.175, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.539, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Antonio Blanco", "opponent_faced": "Antonio Blanco", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1908, "creation_factor": 0.9117, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 957, "fifa_rank": 578.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9799, "expected_assists": 0.1924, "assist_rate": 0.0986, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1815, "goal_rate": 0.1641, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4867, "total_shots": 1.4048, "rating": 6.861, "minutes": 76.57, "total_pass": 33.7212, "accurate_pass": 26.3443, "duels_won": 5.1252, "total_long_balls": 0.7918, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5105, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6649, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5138, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8306, "crosses_total": 1.5267, "crosses_accurate": 0.4602, "touches": 51.6151, "possession_lost": 13.1084, "dispossessed": 0.9454, "duels_lost": 5.8514, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.089, "interceptions": 0.7792, "tackles_won": 1.5603, "tackles": 2.3985, "clearances": 0.7754, "total_contest": 1.738, "won_contest": 0.6324, "challenges_lost": 1.8677, "fouls": 1.052, "fouls_drawn": 1.0204, "blocks": 0.1668, "big_chances_created": 0.2765, "big_chances_missed": 0.1261, "xgot": 0.2146, "ball_carries": 11.066, "total_progression": 41.6734, "progressive_carries": 1.8485, "shots_off_target": 0.9139, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.175, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.539, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Antonio Blanco", "opponent_faced": "Antonio Blanco", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.166, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1908, "creation_factor": 0.9117, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.166, "scorer_weight": 0.2161, "squad_weight_total": 2.945, "weight_share": 0.0734, "finishing_factor": 1.1908, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jonathan David", "weight": 0.8639, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8639, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5239 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.5239, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5239, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4068 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9799, "expected_assists": 0.1924, "assist_rate": 0.0986, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1815, "goal_rate": 0.1641, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4867, "total_shots": 1.4048, "rating": 6.861, "minutes": 76.57, "total_pass": 33.7212, "accurate_pass": 26.3443, "duels_won": 5.1252, "total_long_balls": 0.7918, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5105, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6649, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5138, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0564, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8306, "crosses_total": 1.5267, "crosses_accurate": 0.4602, "touches": 51.6151, "possession_lost": 13.1084, "dispossessed": 0.9454, "duels_lost": 5.8514, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.089, "interceptions": 0.7792, "tackles_won": 1.5603, "tackles": 2.3985, "clearances": 0.7754, "total_contest": 1.738, "won_contest": 0.6324, "challenges_lost": 1.8677, "fouls": 1.052, "fouls_drawn": 1.0204, "blocks": 0.1668, "big_chances_created": 0.2765, "big_chances_missed": 0.1261, "xgot": 0.2146, "ball_carries": 11.066, "total_progression": 41.6734, "progressive_carries": 1.8485, "shots_off_target": 0.9139, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.175, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.539, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Antonio Blanco", "opponent_faced": "Antonio Blanco", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.166, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.175, "finishing_factor": 1.1908, "creation_factor": 0.9117, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.175, "provider_weight": 0.1754, "squad_weight_total": 1.6801, "weight_share": 0.1044, "creation_factor": 0.9117, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.2713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2713, "runner_up": "Marcos Llorente", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1959 } ] } } ] }, "Johnny Cardoso": { "player_id": 990169, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 186, "market_value": 18700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0954, "assist_rate": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0452, "goal_rate": 0.0404, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9107, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 45, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 6.7548, "dispossessed": 1.1206, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1325, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.51, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Antonio Blanco", "opponent_faced": "Antonio Blanco", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0442, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.091, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "creation_factor": 0.934, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0634, "expected_assists": 0.0453, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 64, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416335, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0123, "expected_assists": 0.3227, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 81, "accurate_pass": 77, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0476, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0115, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 23, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083242, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083306, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0097, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081807, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083602, "match_date": "2026-03-07", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.09, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081795, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0274, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 42, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1498, "combined_rank_score": 619.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 475.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8778, "sofascore_appearances": 10.0, "fifa_rank": 763.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9107, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Johnny Cardoso", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lucas Hernández", "ranking": 1493 }, { "player_name": "Yerco Oyanedel", "ranking": 1494 }, { "player_name": "Bekhruz Karimov", "ranking": 1495 }, { "player_name": "Ermedin Demirović", "ranking": 1496 }, { "player_name": "Julio Enciso", "ranking": 1497 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jerdy Schouten", "ranking": 1499 }, { "player_name": "Hyeon-je Kang", "ranking": 1500 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Alonso", "ranking": 1501 }, { "player_name": "Eduardo Vargas", "ranking": 1502 }, { "player_name": "Tomislav Uskok", "ranking": 1503 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.751, "history_matches": 20, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 20, "data_confidence": 0.751, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0068, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 6.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 20 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Atlético Madrid, rel: 0.01, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.59, "expected_assists": 0.0556, "assists": 0.0486, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "expected_goals": 0.0283, "goals": 0.0355, "goal_rate": 0.0355, "shots_on_target": 0.1314, "total_shots": 0.5775, "rating": 6.9107, "minutes": 77.24, "total_pass": 49.1736, "accurate_pass": 44.8009, "duels_won": 3.8852, "total_long_balls": 2.61, "accurate_long_balls": 2.155, "total_own_half_passes": 21.8155, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3865, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.3581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.4144, "crosses_total": 0.1897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0238, "touches": 61.1173, "possession_lost": 6.7092, "dispossessed": 1.113, "duels_lost": 5.4477, "aerial_won": 0.5998, "aerial_lost": 1.7581, "interceptions": 1.1921, "tackles_won": 1.4145, "tackles": 2.4319, "clearances": 1.2507, "total_contest": 0.284, "won_contest": 0.1718, "challenges_lost": 1.1233, "fouls": 1.3411, "fouls_drawn": 0.6817, "blocks": 0.4519, "big_chances_created": 0.1628, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.0834, "total_progression": 50.3451, "progressive_carries": 0.7987, "shots_off_target": 0.4461 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.156, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1326, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1127, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0958, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0815, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0692, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0589, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 57.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.05, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-07", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0425, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-28", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0361, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.4307, "creative_index": 0.1173, "expectedGoals": 0.0184, "expectedAssists": 0.0631, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5900084376335144, "model_output": 0.59, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.1161 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1067 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0987 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0403 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0334 } ], "others": -0.1144, "total": 0.59, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.140375 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129746 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.119452 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.05317 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": -0.046364 } ], "others_margin": -0.177188 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.055625442415475845, "model_output": 0.0556, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0099 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0031 } ], "others": -0.0059, "total": 0.0556, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.253744 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.139101 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.119521 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.049912 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.049716 } ], "others_margin": -0.099275 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.04864498972892761, "model_output": 0.0486, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0065 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0054 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0042 } ], "others": -0.0152, "total": 0.0486, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.13929 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.102678 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.093289 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.075834 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.064212 } ], "others_margin": -0.272076 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.028336383402347565, "model_output": 0.0283, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0353 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0048 } ], "others": -0.0134, "total": 0.0283, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.468148 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.161739 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.15784 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.153495 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12262 } ], "others_margin": -0.385091 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.035479720681905746, "model_output": 0.0355, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0263 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0053 } ], "others": -0.013, "total": 0.0355, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.314406 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.252043 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.135307 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.106282 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.10358 } ], "others_margin": -0.313327 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1314132660627365, "model_output": 0.1314, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0842 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0435 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0194 } ], "others": -0.031, "total": 0.1314, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.300937 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.200024 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.195753 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.1189 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.112923 } ], "others_margin": -0.211631 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5775380730628967, "model_output": 0.5775, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2455 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1106 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0564 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0513 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0392 } ], "others": -0.1312, "total": 0.5775, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.245542 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.110615 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.056441 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.051284 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.039153 } ], "others_margin": -0.131122 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.910706996917725, "model_output": 6.9107, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.062 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0381 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0186 } ], "others": -0.0153, "total": 6.9107, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.061972 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.038137 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021318 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.020342 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.018586 } ], "others_margin": -0.015198 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0068, quality 0.618)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.594, "expected_assists": 0.056, "assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.049, "expected_goals": 0.0285, "goals": 0.0357, "goal_rate": 0.0357, "shots_on_target": 0.1323, "total_shots": 0.5815, "rating": 6.9107, "minutes": 77.24, "total_pass": 49.508, "accurate_pass": 45.1055, "duels_won": 3.9116, "total_long_balls": 2.6277, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1697, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5251, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.5441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.5804, "crosses_total": 0.191, "crosses_accurate": 0.024, "touches": 61.5329, "possession_lost": 6.7548, "dispossessed": 1.1206, "duels_lost": 5.4847, "aerial_won": 0.6039, "aerial_lost": 1.7701, "interceptions": 1.2002, "tackles_won": 1.4241, "tackles": 2.4484, "clearances": 1.2592, "total_contest": 0.2859, "won_contest": 0.173, "challenges_lost": 1.1309, "fouls": 1.3502, "fouls_drawn": 0.6863, "blocks": 0.455, "big_chances_created": 0.1639, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.186, "total_progression": 50.6874, "progressive_carries": 0.8041, "shots_off_target": 0.4491 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18700000, "quality_factor": 0.6181, "boost_factor": 1.0068, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 20, "history_shrink": 0.2, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0009)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.594, "expected_assists": 0.056, "assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.049, "expected_goals": 0.0285, "goals": 0.0357, "goal_rate": 0.0357, "shots_on_target": 0.1322, "total_shots": 0.581, "rating": 6.9107, "minutes": 77.24, "total_pass": 49.508, "accurate_pass": 45.1055, "duels_won": 3.9116, "total_long_balls": 2.6277, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1697, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5251, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.5441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.5804, "crosses_total": 0.1908, "crosses_accurate": 0.024, "touches": 61.5329, "possession_lost": 6.7548, "dispossessed": 1.1206, "duels_lost": 5.4847, "aerial_won": 0.6039, "aerial_lost": 1.7701, "interceptions": 1.2066, "tackles_won": 1.4303, "tackles": 2.4484, "clearances": 1.2592, "total_contest": 0.2859, "won_contest": 0.173, "challenges_lost": 1.1309, "fouls": 1.3565, "fouls_drawn": 0.6932, "blocks": 0.455, "big_chances_created": 0.1639, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.186, "total_progression": 50.6874, "progressive_carries": 0.8041, "shots_off_target": 0.4491 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0009, "history_matches": 20, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8582, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.6863, "after": 0.6932 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.2002, "after": 1.2066 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.3502, "after": 1.3565 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.4241, "after": 1.4303 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.594, "expected_assists": 0.056, "assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.049, "expected_goals": 0.0285, "goals": 0.0357, "goal_rate": 0.0357, "shots_on_target": 0.1322, "total_shots": 0.5813, "rating": 6.9107, "minutes": 77.24, "total_pass": 49.508, "accurate_pass": 45.1055, "duels_won": 3.9116, "total_long_balls": 2.6277, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1697, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5251, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.5441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.5804, "crosses_total": 0.1908, "crosses_accurate": 0.024, "touches": 61.5329, "possession_lost": 6.7548, "dispossessed": 1.1206, "duels_lost": 5.4847, "aerial_won": 0.6039, "aerial_lost": 1.7701, "interceptions": 1.2066, "tackles_won": 1.4303, "tackles": 2.4484, "clearances": 1.2592, "total_contest": 0.2859, "won_contest": 0.173, "challenges_lost": 1.1309, "fouls": 1.3565, "fouls_drawn": 0.6932, "blocks": 0.455, "big_chances_created": 0.1639, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.186, "total_progression": 50.6874, "progressive_carries": 0.8041, "shots_off_target": 0.4491 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.594, "expected_assists": 0.056, "assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.049, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "goals": 0.0404, "goal_rate": 0.0404, "shots_on_target": 0.1497, "total_shots": 0.6583, "rating": 6.9107, "minutes": 77.24, "total_pass": 49.508, "accurate_pass": 45.1055, "duels_won": 3.9116, "total_long_balls": 2.6277, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1697, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5251, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.5441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.5804, "crosses_total": 0.1908, "crosses_accurate": 0.024, "touches": 61.5329, "possession_lost": 6.7548, "dispossessed": 1.1206, "duels_lost": 5.4847, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.7701, "interceptions": 1.2066, "tackles_won": 1.4303, "tackles": 2.4484, "clearances": 1.2592, "total_contest": 0.2859, "won_contest": 0.173, "challenges_lost": 1.1309, "fouls": 1.3565, "fouls_drawn": 0.6932, "blocks": 0.455, "big_chances_created": 0.1639, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.186, "total_progression": 50.6874, "progressive_carries": 0.8041, "shots_off_target": 0.5086, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1325, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.51, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Antonio Blanco", "opponent_faced": "Antonio Blanco", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Antonio Blanco", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.51, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1325, "skill_edge": 0.0501, "height_edge": 0.04, "attacker_skill": 0.6503, "defender_skill": 0.5389, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Antonio Blanco", "market_value": 9700000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.5389 } ], "xg_override": 0.0323 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.6039, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5813, "after": 0.6583 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4491, "after": 0.5086 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1322, "after": 0.1497 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.71 (squad xG sum 1.9407, xG scale 1.3980, xA scale 1.7031, team xA 1.76 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.594, "expected_assists": 0.0954, "assist_rate": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0452, "goal_rate": 0.0404, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1497, "total_shots": 0.6583, "rating": 6.9107, "minutes": 77.24, "total_pass": 49.508, "accurate_pass": 45.1055, "duels_won": 3.9116, "total_long_balls": 2.6277, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1697, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5251, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.5441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.5804, "crosses_total": 0.1908, "crosses_accurate": 0.024, "touches": 61.5329, "possession_lost": 6.7548, "dispossessed": 1.1206, "duels_lost": 5.4847, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.7701, "interceptions": 1.2066, "tackles_won": 1.4303, "tackles": 2.4484, "clearances": 1.2592, "total_contest": 0.2859, "won_contest": 0.173, "challenges_lost": 1.1309, "fouls": 1.3565, "fouls_drawn": 0.6932, "blocks": 0.455, "big_chances_created": 0.1639, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.186, "total_progression": 50.6874, "progressive_carries": 0.8041, "shots_off_target": 0.5086, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1325, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.51, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Antonio Blanco", "opponent_faced": "Antonio Blanco", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "creation_factor": 0.934 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.713, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9407, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0355, "team_expected_assists": 1.7635, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.398, "xa_scale": 1.7031, "opponent_lambda": 1.163, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0323, "after": 0.0452 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.056, "after": 0.0954 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.594, "expected_assists": 0.0954, "assist_rate": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0452, "goal_rate": 0.0404, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1497, "total_shots": 0.6583, "rating": 6.9107, "minutes": 77.24, "total_pass": 49.508, "accurate_pass": 45.1055, "duels_won": 3.9116, "total_long_balls": 2.6277, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1697, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5251, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.5441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.5804, "crosses_total": 0.1908, "crosses_accurate": 0.024, "touches": 61.5329, "possession_lost": 6.7548, "dispossessed": 1.1206, "duels_lost": 5.4847, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.7701, "interceptions": 1.2066, "tackles_won": 1.4303, "tackles": 2.4484, "clearances": 1.2592, "total_contest": 0.2859, "won_contest": 0.173, "challenges_lost": 1.1309, "fouls": 1.3565, "fouls_drawn": 0.6932, "blocks": 0.455, "big_chances_created": 0.1639, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.186, "total_progression": 50.6874, "progressive_carries": 0.8041, "shots_off_target": 0.5086, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1325, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.51, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Antonio Blanco", "opponent_faced": "Antonio Blanco", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "creation_factor": 0.934, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1498, "fifa_rank": 763.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.594, "expected_assists": 0.0954, "assist_rate": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0452, "goal_rate": 0.0404, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1497, "total_shots": 0.6583, "rating": 6.9107, "minutes": 77.24, "total_pass": 49.508, "accurate_pass": 45.1055, "duels_won": 3.9116, "total_long_balls": 2.6277, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1697, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5251, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.5441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.5804, "crosses_total": 0.1908, "crosses_accurate": 0.024, "touches": 61.5329, "possession_lost": 6.7548, "dispossessed": 1.1206, "duels_lost": 5.4847, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.7701, "interceptions": 1.2066, "tackles_won": 1.4303, "tackles": 2.4484, "clearances": 1.2592, "total_contest": 0.2859, "won_contest": 0.173, "challenges_lost": 1.1309, "fouls": 1.3565, "fouls_drawn": 0.6932, "blocks": 0.455, "big_chances_created": 0.1639, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.186, "total_progression": 50.6874, "progressive_carries": 0.8041, "shots_off_target": 0.5086, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1325, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.51, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Antonio Blanco", "opponent_faced": "Antonio Blanco", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0442, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "creation_factor": 0.934, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0442, "scorer_weight": 0.0496, "squad_weight_total": 2.945, "weight_share": 0.0169, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jonathan David", "weight": 0.8639, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8639, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5239 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.5239, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5239, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4068 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.594, "expected_assists": 0.0954, "assist_rate": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0452, "goal_rate": 0.0404, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1497, "total_shots": 0.6583, "rating": 6.9107, "minutes": 77.24, "total_pass": 49.508, "accurate_pass": 45.1055, "duels_won": 3.9116, "total_long_balls": 2.6277, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1697, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5251, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.5441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.5804, "crosses_total": 0.1908, "crosses_accurate": 0.024, "touches": 61.5329, "possession_lost": 6.7548, "dispossessed": 1.1206, "duels_lost": 5.4847, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.7701, "interceptions": 1.2066, "tackles_won": 1.4303, "tackles": 2.4484, "clearances": 1.2592, "total_contest": 0.2859, "won_contest": 0.173, "challenges_lost": 1.1309, "fouls": 1.3565, "fouls_drawn": 0.6932, "blocks": 0.455, "big_chances_created": 0.1639, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.186, "total_progression": 50.6874, "progressive_carries": 0.8041, "shots_off_target": 0.5086, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1325, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.51, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Antonio Blanco", "opponent_faced": "Antonio Blanco", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0442, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.091, "finishing_factor": 1.0984, "creation_factor": 0.934, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.091, "provider_weight": 0.0891, "squad_weight_total": 1.6801, "weight_share": 0.053, "creation_factor": 0.934, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.2713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2713, "runner_up": "Marcos Llorente", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1959 } ] } } ] }, "Marcos Llorente": { "player_id": 353138, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 184, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.853, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 52, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 32, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 74, "possession_lost": 8.6778, "dispossessed": 0.6489, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1264, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0362, "expected_assists": 0.1596, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0405, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 76, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Mariano Díaz", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0356, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1475, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.2276, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.041, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 81, "accurate_pass": 77, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416335, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0664, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 59, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0755, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 63, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0306, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083735, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.435, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 54, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083634, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 7, "tackles_won": 5, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083551, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1074, "expected_assists": 0.1863, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 69, "accurate_pass": 63, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 264, "combined_rank_score": 196.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 236.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 157.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.853, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marcos Llorente", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "James Nicholas Delianov", "ranking": 259 }, { "player_name": "Scott McTominay", "ranking": 260 }, { "player_name": "Yann Sommer", "ranking": 261 }, { "player_name": "Éder Militão", "ranking": 262 }, { "player_name": "Aleksandar Pavlović", "ranking": 263 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alexander Sørloth", "ranking": 265 }, { "player_name": "Edgar Silva", "ranking": 266 }, { "player_name": "Antonio Rüdiger", "ranking": 267 }, { "player_name": "Ibrahima Konaté", "ranking": 268 }, { "player_name": "Jorge Henríquez", "ranking": 269 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.765, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 36, "data_confidence": 0.765, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.005, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 135.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.6666666666666666, "shots_per90": 0.67, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 36 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Atlético Madrid, rel: 0.10, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.6666666666666666)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1024, "tackles": 1.8839, "tackles_won": 1.2305, "clearances": 1.9866, "aerial_won": 0.5569, "total_shots": 0.5444, "rating": 6.853, "minutes": 81.65, "total_pass": 56.4028, "accurate_pass": 51.8657, "duels_won": 3.3197, "total_long_balls": 3.1796, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6948, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5188, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.0328, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.8839, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8328, "crosses_total": 1.8965, "crosses_accurate": 0.2413, "touches": 74.0008, "possession_lost": 8.6346, "dispossessed": 0.6457, "duels_lost": 3.2161, "aerial_lost": 0.3064, "total_contest": 0.8625, "won_contest": 0.5642, "ball_recovery": 4.1348, "challenges_lost": 1.0941, "fouls": 0.8716, "fouls_drawn": 0.2802, "blocks": 0.2846, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.122, "assist_rate": 0.122, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "expected_assists": 0.0932, "shots_on_target": 0.2515, "big_chances_created": 0.0751, "xgot": 0.0289, "ball_carries": 17.559, "total_progression": 76.0288, "progressive_carries": 1.5528, "key_pass": 1.3268, "shots_off_target": 0.2929 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 5.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 1.2915, "aerialWon": 0.2898, "totalClearance_p90": 1.7553, "totalTackle": 1.8825, "totalPass": 50.5968 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.1024303436279297, "model_output": 1.1024, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1237 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0448 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0341 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0328 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0318 } ], "others": 0.0415, "total": 1.1024, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.13474 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.04468 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.032717 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.030474 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.029521 } ], "others_margin": 0.038428 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.8838869333267212, "model_output": 1.8839, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.197 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0986 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0763 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0692 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0677 } ], "others": -0.0188, "total": 1.8839, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132197 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.060125 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.04417 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.03843 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.036219 } ], "others_margin": -0.009892 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.230478048324585, "model_output": 1.2305, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1153 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0654 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0593 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0598 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0583 } ], "others": 0.1346, "total": 1.2305, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126576 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.065282 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.055676 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.053199 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.051859 } ], "others_margin": 0.115941 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.9866061210632324, "model_output": 1.9866, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.6623 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3693 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.35 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2302 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1808 } ], "others": -0.4108, "total": 1.9866, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.213056 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124353 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.117446 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.085505 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.072724 } ], "others_margin": -0.187978 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.5569064021110535, "model_output": 0.5569, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.5453 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1014 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0981 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0928 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0478 } ], "others": -0.1359, "total": 0.5569, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.501768 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.129116 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125276 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.118086 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.066779 } ], "others_margin": -0.218439 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5443775653839111, "model_output": 0.5444, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0678 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0219 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0129 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0286, "total": 0.5444, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.067812 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.021881 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": -0.013414 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.012893 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.012661 } ], "others_margin": -0.028586 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.852999210357666, "model_output": 6.853, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0498 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0486 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0406 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0171 } ], "others": -0.0334, "total": 6.853, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.049782 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.048647 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.040564 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.020574 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.01713 } ], "others_margin": -0.03342 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0050, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1079, "tackles": 1.8933, "tackles_won": 1.2366, "clearances": 1.9965, "aerial_won": 0.5597, "total_shots": 0.5472, "rating": 6.853, "minutes": 81.65, "total_pass": 56.6848, "accurate_pass": 52.125, "duels_won": 3.3363, "total_long_balls": 3.1955, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7033, "total_own_half_passes": 24.6414, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.148, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.0433, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.977, "crosses_total": 1.906, "crosses_accurate": 0.2425, "touches": 74.3708, "possession_lost": 8.6778, "dispossessed": 0.6489, "duels_lost": 3.2322, "aerial_lost": 0.3079, "total_contest": 0.8668, "won_contest": 0.567, "ball_recovery": 4.1555, "challenges_lost": 1.0996, "fouls": 0.876, "fouls_drawn": 0.2816, "blocks": 0.286, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1226, "assist_rate": 0.1226, "expected_goals": 0.0259, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "shots_on_target": 0.2528, "big_chances_created": 0.0755, "xgot": 0.029, "ball_carries": 17.6468, "total_progression": 76.4089, "progressive_carries": 1.5606, "key_pass": 1.3334, "shots_off_target": 0.2944 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.005, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0079)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1183, "tackles": 1.8933, "tackles_won": 1.2364, "clearances": 1.9965, "aerial_won": 0.5597, "total_shots": 0.5477, "rating": 6.853, "minutes": 81.65, "total_pass": 56.6848, "accurate_pass": 52.125, "duels_won": 3.3363, "total_long_balls": 3.1955, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7033, "total_own_half_passes": 24.6414, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.148, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.0433, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.977, "crosses_total": 1.8909, "crosses_accurate": 0.2425, "touches": 74.3708, "possession_lost": 8.6778, "dispossessed": 0.6489, "duels_lost": 3.2322, "aerial_lost": 0.3079, "total_contest": 0.8668, "won_contest": 0.567, "ball_recovery": 4.1555, "challenges_lost": 1.0996, "fouls": 0.8978, "fouls_drawn": 0.289, "blocks": 0.286, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1264, "assist_rate": 0.1264, "expected_goals": 0.0259, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "shots_on_target": 0.2508, "big_chances_created": 0.0755, "xgot": 0.029, "ball_carries": 17.6468, "total_progression": 76.4089, "progressive_carries": 1.5606, "key_pass": 1.3334, "shots_off_target": 0.2944 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0079, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9072, "prior_reliability": 0.1, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.876, "after": 0.8978 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.906, "after": 1.8909 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1079, "after": 1.1183 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.2816, "after": 0.289 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1183, "tackles": 1.8933, "tackles_won": 1.2364, "clearances": 1.9965, "aerial_won": 0.5597, "total_shots": 0.5477, "rating": 6.853, "minutes": 81.65, "total_pass": 56.6848, "accurate_pass": 52.125, "duels_won": 3.3363, "total_long_balls": 3.1955, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7033, "total_own_half_passes": 24.6414, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.148, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.0433, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.977, "crosses_total": 1.8909, "crosses_accurate": 0.2425, "touches": 74.3708, "possession_lost": 8.6778, "dispossessed": 0.6489, "duels_lost": 3.2322, "aerial_lost": 0.3079, "total_contest": 0.8668, "won_contest": 0.567, "ball_recovery": 4.1555, "challenges_lost": 1.0996, "fouls": 0.8978, "fouls_drawn": 0.289, "blocks": 0.286, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1264, "assist_rate": 0.1264, "expected_goals": 0.0259, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "shots_on_target": 0.2508, "big_chances_created": 0.0755, "xgot": 0.029, "ball_carries": 17.6468, "total_progression": 76.4089, "progressive_carries": 1.5606, "key_pass": 1.3334, "shots_off_target": 0.2944 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1183, "tackles": 1.8933, "tackles_won": 1.2364, "clearances": 1.9965, "aerial_won": 0.5597, "total_shots": 0.5477, "rating": 6.853, "minutes": 81.65, "total_pass": 56.6848, "accurate_pass": 52.125, "duels_won": 3.3363, "total_long_balls": 3.1955, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7033, "total_own_half_passes": 24.6414, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.148, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.0433, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.977, "crosses_total": 1.8909, "crosses_accurate": 0.2425, "touches": 74.3708, "possession_lost": 8.6778, "dispossessed": 0.6489, "duels_lost": 3.2322, "aerial_lost": 0.3079, "total_contest": 0.8668, "won_contest": 0.567, "ball_recovery": 4.1555, "challenges_lost": 1.0996, "fouls": 0.8978, "fouls_drawn": 0.289, "blocks": 0.286, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1264, "assist_rate": 0.1264, "expected_goals": 0.0259, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "shots_on_target": 0.2508, "big_chances_created": 0.0755, "xgot": 0.029, "ball_carries": 17.6468, "total_progression": 76.4089, "progressive_carries": 1.5606, "key_pass": 1.3334, "shots_off_target": 0.2944, "opponent_faced": "Mariano Díaz", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mariano Díaz", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.71 (squad xG sum 1.9407, xG scale 1.3980, xA scale 1.7031, team xA 1.76 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1183, "tackles": 1.8933, "tackles_won": 1.2364, "clearances": 1.9965, "aerial_won": 0.5597, "total_shots": 0.5477, "rating": 6.853, "minutes": 81.65, "total_pass": 56.6848, "accurate_pass": 52.125, "duels_won": 3.3363, "total_long_balls": 3.1955, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7033, "total_own_half_passes": 24.6414, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.148, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.0433, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.977, "crosses_total": 1.8909, "crosses_accurate": 0.2425, "touches": 74.3708, "possession_lost": 8.6778, "dispossessed": 0.6489, "duels_lost": 3.2322, "aerial_lost": 0.3079, "total_contest": 0.8668, "won_contest": 0.567, "ball_recovery": 4.1555, "challenges_lost": 1.0996, "fouls": 0.8978, "fouls_drawn": 0.289, "blocks": 0.286, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1264, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0362, "expected_assists": 0.1596, "shots_on_target": 0.2508, "big_chances_created": 0.0755, "xgot": 0.0405, "ball_carries": 17.6468, "total_progression": 76.4089, "progressive_carries": 1.5606, "key_pass": 1.3334, "shots_off_target": 0.2944, "opponent_faced": "Mariano Díaz", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.2276 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.713, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9407, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0355, "team_expected_assists": 1.7635, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.398, "xa_scale": 1.7031, "opponent_lambda": 1.163, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0259, "after": 0.0362 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0937, "after": 0.1596 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1183, "tackles": 1.8933, "tackles_won": 1.2364, "clearances": 1.9965, "aerial_won": 0.5597, "total_shots": 0.5477, "rating": 6.853, "minutes": 81.65, "total_pass": 56.6848, "accurate_pass": 52.125, "duels_won": 3.3363, "total_long_balls": 3.1955, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7033, "total_own_half_passes": 24.6414, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.148, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.0433, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.977, "crosses_total": 1.8909, "crosses_accurate": 0.2425, "touches": 74.3708, "possession_lost": 8.6778, "dispossessed": 0.6489, "duels_lost": 3.2322, "aerial_lost": 0.3079, "total_contest": 0.8668, "won_contest": 0.567, "ball_recovery": 4.1555, "challenges_lost": 1.0996, "fouls": 0.8978, "fouls_drawn": 0.289, "blocks": 0.286, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1264, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0362, "expected_assists": 0.1596, "shots_on_target": 0.2508, "big_chances_created": 0.0755, "xgot": 0.0405, "ball_carries": 17.6468, "total_progression": 76.4089, "progressive_carries": 1.5606, "key_pass": 1.3334, "shots_off_target": 0.2944, "opponent_faced": "Mariano Díaz", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.2276, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 264, "fifa_rank": 157.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1183, "tackles": 1.8933, "tackles_won": 1.2364, "clearances": 1.9965, "aerial_won": 0.5597, "total_shots": 0.5477, "rating": 6.853, "minutes": 81.65, "total_pass": 56.6848, "accurate_pass": 52.125, "duels_won": 3.3363, "total_long_balls": 3.1955, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7033, "total_own_half_passes": 24.6414, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.148, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.0433, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.977, "crosses_total": 1.8909, "crosses_accurate": 0.2425, "touches": 74.3708, "possession_lost": 8.6778, "dispossessed": 0.6489, "duels_lost": 3.2322, "aerial_lost": 0.3079, "total_contest": 0.8668, "won_contest": 0.567, "ball_recovery": 4.1555, "challenges_lost": 1.0996, "fouls": 0.8978, "fouls_drawn": 0.289, "blocks": 0.286, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1264, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0362, "expected_assists": 0.1596, "shots_on_target": 0.2508, "big_chances_created": 0.0755, "xgot": 0.0405, "ball_carries": 17.6468, "total_progression": 76.4089, "progressive_carries": 1.5606, "key_pass": 1.3334, "shots_off_target": 0.2944, "opponent_faced": "Mariano Díaz", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0356, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.2276, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0356, "scorer_weight": 0.029, "squad_weight_total": 2.945, "weight_share": 0.0098, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jonathan David", "weight": 0.8639, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8639, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5239 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.5239, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5239, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4068 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1183, "tackles": 1.8933, "tackles_won": 1.2364, "clearances": 1.9965, "aerial_won": 0.5597, "total_shots": 0.5477, "rating": 6.853, "minutes": 81.65, "total_pass": 56.6848, "accurate_pass": 52.125, "duels_won": 3.3363, "total_long_balls": 3.1955, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7033, "total_own_half_passes": 24.6414, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.148, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.0433, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.977, "crosses_total": 1.8909, "crosses_accurate": 0.2425, "touches": 74.3708, "possession_lost": 8.6778, "dispossessed": 0.6489, "duels_lost": 3.2322, "aerial_lost": 0.3079, "total_contest": 0.8668, "won_contest": 0.567, "ball_recovery": 4.1555, "challenges_lost": 1.0996, "fouls": 0.8978, "fouls_drawn": 0.289, "blocks": 0.286, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1264, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0362, "expected_assists": 0.1596, "shots_on_target": 0.2508, "big_chances_created": 0.0755, "xgot": 0.0405, "ball_carries": 17.6468, "total_progression": 76.4089, "progressive_carries": 1.5606, "key_pass": 1.3334, "shots_off_target": 0.2944, "opponent_faced": "Mariano Díaz", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0356, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1475, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.2276, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1475, "provider_weight": 0.1959, "squad_weight_total": 1.6801, "weight_share": 0.1166, "creation_factor": 1.2276, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.2713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2713, "runner_up": "Marcos Llorente", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1959 } ] } } ] }, "Alejandro Grimaldo": { "player_id": 177177, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 171, "market_value": 19400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.2253, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3589, "goal_rate": 0.233, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.055, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 29, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 76, "possession_lost": 15.2676, "dispossessed": 0.3849, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.5447, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 64, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0196, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.313, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Antonio Sivera", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Antonio Sivera", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3016, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2017, "finishing_factor": 0.9227, "creation_factor": 0.8124, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8458, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 42, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416335, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 8.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3081, "expected_assists": 0.2421, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 49, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.8419, "expected_assists": 0.0527, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0107, "expected_assists": 0.0749, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 49, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0902, "expected_assists": 0.012, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0172, "expected_assists": 0.06, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 20, "combined_rank_score": 22.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 30.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.0, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 15.0, "fifa_overall": 89.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.055, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Gabriel", "ranking": 15 }, { "player_name": "Cesinha", "ranking": 16 }, { "player_name": "James Rodríguez", "ranking": 17 }, { "player_name": "Memphis Depay", "ranking": 18 }, { "player_name": "Gustavo Henrique", "ranking": 19 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Marc Bartra", "ranking": 21 }, { "player_name": "Khvicha Kvaratskhelia", "ranking": 22 }, { "player_name": "Danijel Petković", "ranking": 23 }, { "player_name": "Angel Fortuno", "ranking": 24 }, { "player_name": "Hyun-woo Cho", "ranking": 25 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.625, "history_matches": 6, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 6, "data_confidence": 0.625, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0164, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 6 historical appearances across 8 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2814, "expected_assists": 0.1302, "assists": 0.0965, "assist_rate": 0.0965, "expected_goals": 0.2477, "goals": 0.2248, "goal_rate": 0.2248, "shots_on_target": 0.7837, "total_shots": 1.8006, "rating": 7.055, "minutes": 88.23, "total_pass": 48.3623, "accurate_pass": 41.1422, "duels_won": 4.9486, "total_long_balls": 4.3416, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0067, "total_own_half_passes": 19.387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.777, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.9753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.3653, "crosses_total": 4.8368, "crosses_accurate": 1.078, "touches": 74.9266, "possession_lost": 15.0213, "dispossessed": 0.3787, "duels_lost": 4.6435, "aerial_won": 0.5545, "aerial_lost": 0.7212, "interceptions": 0.6592, "tackles_won": 1.4099, "tackles": 2.0797, "clearances": 1.4719, "total_contest": 3.4174, "won_contest": 1.905, "challenges_lost": 0.9022, "fouls": 1.1291, "fouls_drawn": 0.4094, "blocks": 0.2326, "big_chances_created": 0.3787, "big_chances_missed": 0.2402, "xgot": 0.3759, "ball_carries": 17.3535, "total_progression": 62.573, "progressive_carries": 2.4427, "shots_off_target": 1.0169 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2408, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2047, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.174, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.7452, "creative_index": 0.2834, "expectedGoals": 0.428, "expectedAssists": 0.0834, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.8214 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.2813653945922852, "model_output": 1.2814, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1178 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.1277 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.107 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0875 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0589 } ], "others": 0.1891, "total": 1.2814, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124769 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.119739 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.09036 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.073268 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.052507 } ], "others_margin": 0.159647 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.13019905984401703, "model_output": 0.1302, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0069 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0057 } ], "others": 0.0117, "total": 0.1302, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.149555 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.102467 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.061069 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.057906 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.046678 } ], "others_margin": 0.093038 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.09653513878583908, "model_output": 0.0965, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0099 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0066 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0049 } ], "others": 0.0029, "total": 0.0965, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.109706 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.096546 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.073982 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.058003 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.050634 } ], "others_margin": 0.030046 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.24772578477859497, "model_output": 0.2477, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0612 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0359 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.028 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0227 } ], "others": -0.0153, "total": 0.2477, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.49959 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.207824 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.136609 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.090508 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.090321 } ], "others_margin": -0.060367 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.2247730940580368, "model_output": 0.2248, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0439 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0295 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0168 } ], "others": 0.0342, "total": 0.2248, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.371129 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.18947 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.117467 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.100913 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.092242 } ], "others_margin": 0.164356 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7837477326393127, "model_output": 0.7837, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1259 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.1327 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0819 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0483 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0349 } ], "others": 0.036, "total": 0.7837, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.328233 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.258553 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.13154 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.070206 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.047832 } ], "others_margin": 0.047008 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.8006161451339722, "model_output": 1.8006, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4485 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.1818 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.174 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.12 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0667 } ], "others": -0.0475, "total": 1.8006, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.448508 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.181795 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.173967 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.120029 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.066719 } ], "others_margin": -0.04743 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.054958343505859, "model_output": 7.055, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0875 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0494 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0311 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0296 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0243 } ], "others": 0.0328, "total": 7.055, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.087459 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.049398 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.03113 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.029642 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.024333 } ], "others_margin": 0.03279 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0164, quality 0.625)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3024, "expected_assists": 0.1323, "assists": 0.0981, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "expected_goals": 0.2518, "goals": 0.2285, "goal_rate": 0.2285, "shots_on_target": 0.7966, "total_shots": 1.8302, "rating": 7.055, "minutes": 88.23, "total_pass": 49.1554, "accurate_pass": 41.8169, "duels_won": 5.0298, "total_long_balls": 4.4128, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0396, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7049, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0685, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.4505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.7485, "crosses_total": 4.9161, "crosses_accurate": 1.0957, "touches": 76.1554, "possession_lost": 15.2676, "dispossessed": 0.3849, "duels_lost": 4.7197, "aerial_won": 0.5636, "aerial_lost": 0.733, "interceptions": 0.67, "tackles_won": 1.433, "tackles": 2.1138, "clearances": 1.496, "total_contest": 3.4734, "won_contest": 1.9362, "challenges_lost": 0.917, "fouls": 1.1476, "fouls_drawn": 0.4161, "blocks": 0.2364, "big_chances_created": 0.3849, "big_chances_missed": 0.2441, "xgot": 0.3821, "ball_carries": 17.6381, "total_progression": 63.5992, "progressive_carries": 2.4828, "shots_off_target": 1.0336 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19400000, "quality_factor": 0.6251, "boost_factor": 1.0164, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3024, "expected_assists": 0.1323, "assists": 0.0981, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "expected_goals": 0.2518, "goals": 0.2285, "goal_rate": 0.2285, "shots_on_target": 0.7966, "total_shots": 1.8302, "rating": 7.055, "minutes": 88.23, "total_pass": 49.1554, "accurate_pass": 41.8169, "duels_won": 5.0298, "total_long_balls": 4.4128, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0396, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7049, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0685, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.4505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.7485, "crosses_total": 4.9161, "crosses_accurate": 1.0957, "touches": 76.1554, "possession_lost": 15.2676, "dispossessed": 0.3849, "duels_lost": 4.7197, "aerial_won": 0.5636, "aerial_lost": 0.733, "interceptions": 0.67, "tackles_won": 1.433, "tackles": 2.1138, "clearances": 1.496, "total_contest": 3.4734, "won_contest": 1.9362, "challenges_lost": 0.917, "fouls": 1.1476, "fouls_drawn": 0.4161, "blocks": 0.2364, "big_chances_created": 0.3849, "big_chances_missed": 0.2441, "xgot": 0.3821, "ball_carries": 17.6381, "total_progression": 63.5992, "progressive_carries": 2.4828, "shots_off_target": 1.0336 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3024, "expected_assists": 0.1323, "assists": 0.0981, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "expected_goals": 0.2567, "goals": 0.233, "goal_rate": 0.233, "shots_on_target": 0.8122, "total_shots": 1.8661, "rating": 7.055, "minutes": 88.23, "total_pass": 49.1554, "accurate_pass": 41.8169, "duels_won": 5.0298, "total_long_balls": 4.4128, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0396, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7049, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0685, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.4505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.7485, "crosses_total": 4.9161, "crosses_accurate": 1.0957, "touches": 76.1554, "possession_lost": 15.2676, "dispossessed": 0.3849, "duels_lost": 4.7197, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.733, "interceptions": 0.67, "tackles_won": 1.433, "tackles": 2.1138, "clearances": 1.496, "total_contest": 3.4734, "won_contest": 1.9362, "challenges_lost": 0.917, "fouls": 1.1476, "fouls_drawn": 0.4161, "blocks": 0.2364, "big_chances_created": 0.3849, "big_chances_missed": 0.2489, "xgot": 0.3896, "ball_carries": 17.6381, "total_progression": 63.5992, "progressive_carries": 2.4828, "shots_off_target": 1.0539, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0196, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.313, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Antonio Sivera", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Antonio Sivera", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Antonio Sivera", "matchup_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "duel_win_rate": 0.313, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0196, "skill_edge": 0.0613, "height_edge": -0.048, "attacker_skill": 0.6251, "defender_skill": 0.4889, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "market_value": 3200000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4531 }, { "player": "Antonio Sivera", "market_value": 5600000, "role": "GK", "price_index": 0.55, "adjusted_quality": 0.5246 } ], "xg_override": 0.2567 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.5636, "after": 0.8 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.8302, "after": 1.8661 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.0336, "after": 1.0539 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7966, "after": 0.8122 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.3821, "after": 0.3896 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.71 (squad xG sum 1.9407, xG scale 1.3980, xA scale 1.7031, team xA 1.76 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3024, "expected_assists": 0.2253, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3589, "goal_rate": 0.233, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8122, "total_shots": 1.8661, "rating": 7.055, "minutes": 88.23, "total_pass": 49.1554, "accurate_pass": 41.8169, "duels_won": 5.0298, "total_long_balls": 4.4128, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0396, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7049, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0685, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.4505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.7485, "crosses_total": 4.9161, "crosses_accurate": 1.0957, "touches": 76.1554, "possession_lost": 15.2676, "dispossessed": 0.3849, "duels_lost": 4.7197, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.733, "interceptions": 0.67, "tackles_won": 1.433, "tackles": 2.1138, "clearances": 1.496, "total_contest": 3.4734, "won_contest": 1.9362, "challenges_lost": 0.917, "fouls": 1.1476, "fouls_drawn": 0.4161, "blocks": 0.2364, "big_chances_created": 0.3849, "big_chances_missed": 0.2489, "xgot": 0.5447, "ball_carries": 17.6381, "total_progression": 63.5992, "progressive_carries": 2.4828, "shots_off_target": 1.0539, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0196, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.313, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Antonio Sivera", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Antonio Sivera", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9227, "creation_factor": 0.8124 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.713, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9407, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0355, "team_expected_assists": 1.7635, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.398, "xa_scale": 1.7031, "opponent_lambda": 1.163, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2567, "after": 0.3589 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1323, "after": 0.2253 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 89.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3024, "expected_assists": 0.2253, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3589, "goal_rate": 0.233, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8122, "total_shots": 1.8661, "rating": 7.055, "minutes": 88.23, "total_pass": 49.1554, "accurate_pass": 41.8169, "duels_won": 5.0298, "total_long_balls": 4.4128, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0396, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7049, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0685, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.4505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.7485, "crosses_total": 4.9161, "crosses_accurate": 1.0957, "touches": 76.1554, "possession_lost": 15.2676, "dispossessed": 0.3849, "duels_lost": 4.7197, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.733, "interceptions": 0.67, "tackles_won": 1.433, "tackles": 2.1138, "clearances": 1.496, "total_contest": 3.4734, "won_contest": 1.9362, "challenges_lost": 0.917, "fouls": 1.1476, "fouls_drawn": 0.4161, "blocks": 0.2364, "big_chances_created": 0.3849, "big_chances_missed": 0.2489, "xgot": 0.5447, "ball_carries": 17.6381, "total_progression": 63.5992, "progressive_carries": 2.4828, "shots_off_target": 1.0539, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0196, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.313, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Antonio Sivera", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Antonio Sivera", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9227, "creation_factor": 0.8124, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 20, "fifa_rank": 15.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 89.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3024, "expected_assists": 0.2253, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3589, "goal_rate": 0.233, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8122, "total_shots": 1.8661, "rating": 7.055, "minutes": 88.23, "total_pass": 49.1554, "accurate_pass": 41.8169, "duels_won": 5.0298, "total_long_balls": 4.4128, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0396, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7049, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0685, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.4505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.7485, "crosses_total": 4.9161, "crosses_accurate": 1.0957, "touches": 76.1554, "possession_lost": 15.2676, "dispossessed": 0.3849, "duels_lost": 4.7197, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.733, "interceptions": 0.67, "tackles_won": 1.433, "tackles": 2.1138, "clearances": 1.496, "total_contest": 3.4734, "won_contest": 1.9362, "challenges_lost": 0.917, "fouls": 1.1476, "fouls_drawn": 0.4161, "blocks": 0.2364, "big_chances_created": 0.3849, "big_chances_missed": 0.2489, "xgot": 0.5447, "ball_carries": 17.6381, "total_progression": 63.5992, "progressive_carries": 2.4828, "shots_off_target": 1.0539, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0196, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.313, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Antonio Sivera", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Antonio Sivera", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3016, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9227, "creation_factor": 0.8124, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3016, "scorer_weight": 0.3312, "squad_weight_total": 2.945, "weight_share": 0.1124, "finishing_factor": 0.9227, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jonathan David", "weight": 0.8639, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8639, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5239 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.5239, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5239, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4068 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3024, "expected_assists": 0.2253, "assist_rate": 0.0981, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3589, "goal_rate": 0.233, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8122, "total_shots": 1.8661, "rating": 7.055, "minutes": 88.23, "total_pass": 49.1554, "accurate_pass": 41.8169, "duels_won": 5.0298, "total_long_balls": 4.4128, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0396, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7049, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0685, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.4505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.7485, "crosses_total": 4.9161, "crosses_accurate": 1.0957, "touches": 76.1554, "possession_lost": 15.2676, "dispossessed": 0.3849, "duels_lost": 4.7197, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.733, "interceptions": 0.67, "tackles_won": 1.433, "tackles": 2.1138, "clearances": 1.496, "total_contest": 3.4734, "won_contest": 1.9362, "challenges_lost": 0.917, "fouls": 1.1476, "fouls_drawn": 0.4161, "blocks": 0.2364, "big_chances_created": 0.3849, "big_chances_missed": 0.2489, "xgot": 0.5447, "ball_carries": 17.6381, "total_progression": 63.5992, "progressive_carries": 2.4828, "shots_off_target": 1.0539, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0196, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.313, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Antonio Sivera", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Antonio Sivera", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3016, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2017, "finishing_factor": 0.9227, "creation_factor": 0.8124, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2017, "provider_weight": 0.183, "squad_weight_total": 1.6801, "weight_share": 0.1089, "creation_factor": 0.8124, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.2713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2713, "runner_up": "Marcos Llorente", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1959 } ] } } ] }, "Dávid Hancko": { "player_id": 807771, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 188, "market_value": 36000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.0265, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 56, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 76, "possession_lost": 8.5204, "dispossessed": 0.2605, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2046, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0973, "expected_assists": 0.0983, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0349, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 71, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mariano Díaz", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0927, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0936, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2788, "expected_assists": 0.1352, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 67, "accurate_pass": 59, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416335, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0181, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 45, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0224, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 65, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 62, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 11, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0399, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 69, "accurate_pass": 62, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0688, "expected_assists": 0.2126, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 95, "accurate_pass": 91, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083735, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 20, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083661, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Girona FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0618, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 44, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 9, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083634, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 38, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 208, "combined_rank_score": 158.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 6.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 311.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0265, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dávid Hancko", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Emil Tîmbur", "ranking": 203 }, { "player_name": "Matvii Ponomarenko", "ranking": 204 }, { "player_name": "Kim In-sung", "ranking": 205 }, { "player_name": "Marco Carnesecchi", "ranking": 206 }, { "player_name": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "ranking": 207 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dae-han Park", "ranking": 209 }, { "player_name": "Vladimir Jovović", "ranking": 210 }, { "player_name": "Kenan Yıldız", "ranking": 211 }, { "player_name": "Ruslanbek Jiyanov", "ranking": 212 }, { "player_name": "Jovan Đokić", "ranking": 213 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 37, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.009, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "shots_per90": 1.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 37 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Atlético Madrid, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.3333333333333333)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0479, "tackles": 1.3021, "tackles_won": 0.7836, "clearances": 4.4824, "aerial_won": 1.3716, "total_shots": 0.7751, "rating": 7.0265, "minutes": 87.56, "total_pass": 62.3779, "accurate_pass": 55.6899, "duels_won": 3.4514, "total_long_balls": 7.3524, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5284, "total_own_half_passes": 36.7658, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.748, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.6121, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.9418, "crosses_total": 0.302, "crosses_accurate": 0.0189, "touches": 75.6597, "possession_lost": 8.4444, "dispossessed": 0.2582, "duels_lost": 1.8343, "aerial_lost": 0.8535, "total_contest": 0.7532, "won_contest": 0.6844, "ball_recovery": 3.6847, "challenges_lost": 0.4571, "fouls": 0.2183, "fouls_drawn": 0.2505, "blocks": 0.7335, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2009, "assist_rate": 0.2009, "expected_goals": 0.069, "expected_assists": 0.0572, "shots_on_target": 0.2014, "big_chances_created": 0.2998, "xgot": 0.0248, "ball_carries": 18.7049, "total_progression": 70.8109, "progressive_carries": 1.0549, "key_pass": 0.4181, "shots_off_target": 0.5737 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 8.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.808, "aerialWon": 1.1007, "totalClearance_p90": 3.9233, "totalTackle": 1.0975, "totalPass": 55.2175 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.047884464263916, "model_output": 1.0479, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1191 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0411 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0428 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0201 } ], "others": -0.0169, "total": 1.0479, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.13004 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.041257 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.041236 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.022911 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.018703 } ], "others_margin": -0.015969 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.3021360635757446, "model_output": 1.3021, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1671 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0931 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0343 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0264 } ], "others": -0.0696, "total": 1.3021, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.113251 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.06147 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.024497 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.024255 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.019062 } ], "others_margin": -0.05205 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.7836405038833618, "model_output": 0.7836, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0955 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0423 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0353 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0276 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0212 } ], "others": -0.0399, "total": 0.7836, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.105922 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.045543 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.039661 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.032201 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.025471 } ], "others_margin": -0.049438 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.482369899749756, "model_output": 4.4824, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4542 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.3794 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.4034 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2094 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1315 } ], "others": -0.1281, "total": 4.4824, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123633 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.092712 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.089967 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.045694 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.028947 } ], "others_margin": -0.028196 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.3716087341308594, "model_output": 1.3716, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2027 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1426 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0796 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.066 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.065 } ], "others": -0.0289, "total": 1.3716, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.158597 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114142 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.058458 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.04826 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.047507 } ], "others_margin": -0.02082 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7751065492630005, "model_output": 0.7751, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.167 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0657 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0357 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0166 } ], "others": 0.0416, "total": 0.7751, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.167019 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.065733 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.035665 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.022612 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.01656 } ], "others_margin": 0.041611 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.026515483856201, "model_output": 7.0265, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0511 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0317 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0263 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0261 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0196 } ], "others": 0.0866, "total": 7.0265, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.051104 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.031728 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.02629 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.026116 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.01962 } ], "others_margin": 0.086527 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0090, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0573, "tackles": 1.3139, "tackles_won": 0.7907, "clearances": 4.5227, "aerial_won": 1.384, "total_shots": 0.7821, "rating": 7.0265, "minutes": 87.56, "total_pass": 62.9393, "accurate_pass": 56.1911, "duels_won": 3.4825, "total_long_balls": 7.4186, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5602, "total_own_half_passes": 37.0967, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.0607, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.8426, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1303, "crosses_total": 0.3047, "crosses_accurate": 0.0191, "touches": 76.3406, "possession_lost": 8.5204, "dispossessed": 0.2605, "duels_lost": 1.8508, "aerial_lost": 0.8612, "total_contest": 0.76, "won_contest": 0.6906, "ball_recovery": 3.7179, "challenges_lost": 0.4612, "fouls": 0.2203, "fouls_drawn": 0.2528, "blocks": 0.7401, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2027, "assist_rate": 0.2027, "expected_goals": 0.0696, "expected_assists": 0.0577, "shots_on_target": 0.2032, "big_chances_created": 0.3025, "xgot": 0.025, "ball_carries": 18.8732, "total_progression": 71.4482, "progressive_carries": 1.0644, "key_pass": 0.4219, "shots_off_target": 0.5789 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 36000000, "quality_factor": 0.7581, "boost_factor": 1.009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0155)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0711, "tackles": 1.3139, "tackles_won": 0.7985, "clearances": 4.5227, "aerial_won": 1.384, "total_shots": 0.7851, "rating": 7.0265, "minutes": 87.56, "total_pass": 62.9393, "accurate_pass": 56.1911, "duels_won": 3.4825, "total_long_balls": 7.4186, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5602, "total_own_half_passes": 37.0967, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.0607, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.8426, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1303, "crosses_total": 0.305, "crosses_accurate": 0.0191, "touches": 76.3406, "possession_lost": 8.5204, "dispossessed": 0.2605, "duels_lost": 1.8508, "aerial_lost": 0.8612, "total_contest": 0.76, "won_contest": 0.6906, "ball_recovery": 3.7179, "challenges_lost": 0.4612, "fouls": 0.2219, "fouls_drawn": 0.2639, "blocks": 0.7401, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2046, "assist_rate": 0.2046, "expected_goals": 0.0696, "expected_assists": 0.0577, "shots_on_target": 0.2001, "big_chances_created": 0.3025, "xgot": 0.025, "ball_carries": 18.8732, "total_progression": 71.4482, "progressive_carries": 1.0644, "key_pass": 0.4219, "shots_off_target": 0.5789 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0155, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9729, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.0573, "after": 1.0711 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.2528, "after": 0.2639 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7907, "after": 0.7985 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0711, "tackles": 1.3139, "tackles_won": 0.7985, "clearances": 4.5227, "aerial_won": 1.384, "total_shots": 0.7851, "rating": 7.0265, "minutes": 87.56, "total_pass": 62.9393, "accurate_pass": 56.1911, "duels_won": 3.4825, "total_long_balls": 7.4186, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5602, "total_own_half_passes": 37.0967, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.0607, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.8426, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1303, "crosses_total": 0.305, "crosses_accurate": 0.0191, "touches": 76.3406, "possession_lost": 8.5204, "dispossessed": 0.2605, "duels_lost": 1.8508, "aerial_lost": 0.8612, "total_contest": 0.76, "won_contest": 0.6906, "ball_recovery": 3.7179, "challenges_lost": 0.4612, "fouls": 0.2219, "fouls_drawn": 0.2639, "blocks": 0.7401, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2046, "assist_rate": 0.2046, "expected_goals": 0.0696, "expected_assists": 0.0577, "shots_on_target": 0.2001, "big_chances_created": 0.3025, "xgot": 0.025, "ball_carries": 18.8732, "total_progression": 71.4482, "progressive_carries": 1.0644, "key_pass": 0.4219, "shots_off_target": 0.5789 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0711, "tackles": 1.3139, "tackles_won": 0.7985, "clearances": 4.5227, "aerial_won": 1.384, "total_shots": 0.7851, "rating": 7.0265, "minutes": 87.56, "total_pass": 62.9393, "accurate_pass": 56.1911, "duels_won": 3.4825, "total_long_balls": 7.4186, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5602, "total_own_half_passes": 37.0967, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.0607, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.8426, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1303, "crosses_total": 0.305, "crosses_accurate": 0.0191, "touches": 76.3406, "possession_lost": 8.5204, "dispossessed": 0.2605, "duels_lost": 1.8508, "aerial_lost": 0.8612, "total_contest": 0.76, "won_contest": 0.6906, "ball_recovery": 3.7179, "challenges_lost": 0.4612, "fouls": 0.2219, "fouls_drawn": 0.2639, "blocks": 0.7401, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2046, "assist_rate": 0.2046, "expected_goals": 0.0696, "expected_assists": 0.0577, "shots_on_target": 0.2001, "big_chances_created": 0.3025, "xgot": 0.025, "ball_carries": 18.8732, "total_progression": 71.4482, "progressive_carries": 1.0644, "key_pass": 0.4219, "shots_off_target": 0.5789, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mariano Díaz", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mariano Díaz", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.71 (squad xG sum 1.9407, xG scale 1.3980, xA scale 1.7031, team xA 1.76 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0711, "tackles": 1.3139, "tackles_won": 0.7985, "clearances": 4.5227, "aerial_won": 1.384, "total_shots": 0.7851, "rating": 7.0265, "minutes": 87.56, "total_pass": 62.9393, "accurate_pass": 56.1911, "duels_won": 3.4825, "total_long_balls": 7.4186, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5602, "total_own_half_passes": 37.0967, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.0607, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.8426, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1303, "crosses_total": 0.305, "crosses_accurate": 0.0191, "touches": 76.3406, "possession_lost": 8.5204, "dispossessed": 0.2605, "duels_lost": 1.8508, "aerial_lost": 0.8612, "total_contest": 0.76, "won_contest": 0.6906, "ball_recovery": 3.7179, "challenges_lost": 0.4612, "fouls": 0.2219, "fouls_drawn": 0.2639, "blocks": 0.7401, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2046, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0973, "expected_assists": 0.0983, "shots_on_target": 0.2001, "big_chances_created": 0.3025, "xgot": 0.0349, "ball_carries": 18.8732, "total_progression": 71.4482, "progressive_carries": 1.0644, "key_pass": 0.4219, "shots_off_target": 0.5789, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mariano Díaz", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.713, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9407, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0355, "team_expected_assists": 1.7635, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.398, "xa_scale": 1.7031, "opponent_lambda": 1.163, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0696, "after": 0.0973 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0577, "after": 0.0983 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0711, "tackles": 1.3139, "tackles_won": 0.7985, "clearances": 4.5227, "aerial_won": 1.384, "total_shots": 0.7851, "rating": 7.0265, "minutes": 87.56, "total_pass": 62.9393, "accurate_pass": 56.1911, "duels_won": 3.4825, "total_long_balls": 7.4186, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5602, "total_own_half_passes": 37.0967, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.0607, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.8426, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1303, "crosses_total": 0.305, "crosses_accurate": 0.0191, "touches": 76.3406, "possession_lost": 8.5204, "dispossessed": 0.2605, "duels_lost": 1.8508, "aerial_lost": 0.8612, "total_contest": 0.76, "won_contest": 0.6906, "ball_recovery": 3.7179, "challenges_lost": 0.4612, "fouls": 0.2219, "fouls_drawn": 0.2639, "blocks": 0.7401, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2046, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0973, "expected_assists": 0.0983, "shots_on_target": 0.2001, "big_chances_created": 0.3025, "xgot": 0.0349, "ball_carries": 18.8732, "total_progression": 71.4482, "progressive_carries": 1.0644, "key_pass": 0.4219, "shots_off_target": 0.5789, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mariano Díaz", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 208, "fifa_rank": 311.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0711, "tackles": 1.3139, "tackles_won": 0.7985, "clearances": 4.5227, "aerial_won": 1.384, "total_shots": 0.7851, "rating": 7.0265, "minutes": 87.56, "total_pass": 62.9393, "accurate_pass": 56.1911, "duels_won": 3.4825, "total_long_balls": 7.4186, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5602, "total_own_half_passes": 37.0967, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.0607, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.8426, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1303, "crosses_total": 0.305, "crosses_accurate": 0.0191, "touches": 76.3406, "possession_lost": 8.5204, "dispossessed": 0.2605, "duels_lost": 1.8508, "aerial_lost": 0.8612, "total_contest": 0.76, "won_contest": 0.6906, "ball_recovery": 3.7179, "challenges_lost": 0.4612, "fouls": 0.2219, "fouls_drawn": 0.2639, "blocks": 0.7401, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2046, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0973, "expected_assists": 0.0983, "shots_on_target": 0.2001, "big_chances_created": 0.3025, "xgot": 0.0349, "ball_carries": 18.8732, "total_progression": 71.4482, "progressive_carries": 1.0644, "key_pass": 0.4219, "shots_off_target": 0.5789, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mariano Díaz", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0927, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0927, "scorer_weight": 0.0778, "squad_weight_total": 2.945, "weight_share": 0.0264, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jonathan David", "weight": 0.8639, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8639, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5239 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.5239, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5239, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4068 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0711, "tackles": 1.3139, "tackles_won": 0.7985, "clearances": 4.5227, "aerial_won": 1.384, "total_shots": 0.7851, "rating": 7.0265, "minutes": 87.56, "total_pass": 62.9393, "accurate_pass": 56.1911, "duels_won": 3.4825, "total_long_balls": 7.4186, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5602, "total_own_half_passes": 37.0967, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.0607, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.8426, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1303, "crosses_total": 0.305, "crosses_accurate": 0.0191, "touches": 76.3406, "possession_lost": 8.5204, "dispossessed": 0.2605, "duels_lost": 1.8508, "aerial_lost": 0.8612, "total_contest": 0.76, "won_contest": 0.6906, "ball_recovery": 3.7179, "challenges_lost": 0.4612, "fouls": 0.2219, "fouls_drawn": 0.2639, "blocks": 0.7401, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2046, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0973, "expected_assists": 0.0983, "shots_on_target": 0.2001, "big_chances_created": 0.3025, "xgot": 0.0349, "ball_carries": 18.8732, "total_progression": 71.4482, "progressive_carries": 1.0644, "key_pass": 0.4219, "shots_off_target": 0.5789, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mariano Díaz", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0927, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0936, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0936, "provider_weight": 0.1229, "squad_weight_total": 1.6801, "weight_share": 0.0731, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.2713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2713, "runner_up": "Marcos Llorente", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1959 } ] } } ] }, "Cristian Romero": { "player_id": 829932, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 185, "market_value": 37000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.0577, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 45, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 30, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 6.513, "dispossessed": 0.2521, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0828, "expected_assists": 0.0833, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.2431, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 76, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.818, "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0795, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0799, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0716, "expected_assists": 0.014, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 54, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416335, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1119, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 54, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0446, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 49, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 11, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1759, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 33, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14025026, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0427, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024020, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0185, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 59, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025176, "match_date": "2026-02-07", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 5.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025149, "match_date": "2026-02-01", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 22, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025104, "match_date": "2026-01-24", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0918, "expected_assists": 0.0097, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 58, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025089, "match_date": "2026-01-17", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1704, "expected_assists": 0.1218, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 51, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 9, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 332, "combined_rank_score": 222.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 72.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.58, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 372.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0577, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Cristian Romero", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Diego Murillo", "ranking": 327 }, { "player_name": "Boubacar Kamara", "ranking": 328 }, { "player_name": "Min-woo Kim", "ranking": 329 }, { "player_name": "Juan Berrocal", "ranking": 330 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Senesi", "ranking": 331 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alejandro Iturbe", "ranking": 333 }, { "player_name": "Oyarzabal", "ranking": 334 }, { "player_name": "Manuel Akanji", "ranking": 335 }, { "player_name": "Phil Foden", "ranking": 336 }, { "player_name": "Charles Aránguiz", "ranking": 337 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 27, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 27, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0121, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 27 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Atlético Madrid, rel: 0.00, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9526, "tackles": 1.609, "tackles_won": 0.9968, "clearances": 4.5896, "aerial_won": 2.3556, "total_shots": 0.766, "rating": 7.0577, "minutes": 79.06, "total_pass": 49.4268, "accurate_pass": 44.2658, "duels_won": 6.5997, "total_long_balls": 3.7728, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4175, "total_own_half_passes": 29.6891, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.0962, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.1696, "crosses_total": 0.0354, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.2393, "possession_lost": 6.4351, "dispossessed": 0.2491, "duels_lost": 2.7093, "aerial_lost": 0.9433, "total_contest": 0.5002, "won_contest": 0.4735, "ball_recovery": 3.769, "challenges_lost": 0.4604, "fouls": 1.2534, "fouls_drawn": 1.0417, "blocks": 0.417, "goals": 0.1203, "goal_rate": 0.1203, "assists": 0.005, "assist_rate": 0.005, "expected_goals": 0.0585, "expected_assists": 0.0483, "shots_on_target": 0.4142, "big_chances_created": 0.0914, "xgot": 0.1718, "ball_carries": 16.729, "total_progression": 75.444, "progressive_carries": 0.629, "key_pass": 0.4202, "shots_off_target": 0.3518 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1519, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1291, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1097, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0933, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 70.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0793, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0674, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-07", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0573, "rating": 5.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-01", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0487, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-24", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0414, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-17", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0352, "rating": 8.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 4.2896, "aerialWon": 2.7901, "totalClearance_p90": 4.9395, "totalTackle": 1.7998, "totalPass": 48.261 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9525501132011414, "model_output": 0.9526, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.11 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0096 } ], "others": 0.0222, "total": 0.9526, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120726 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.026289 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": -0.012515 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.010477 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.010354 } ], "others_margin": 0.023588 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.6090447902679443, "model_output": 1.609, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1847 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0643 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0622 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0504 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0456 } ], "others": -0.1009, "total": 1.609, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124448 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.039895 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.03715 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.029105 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.026309 } ], "others_margin": -0.060738 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.9967966675758362, "model_output": 0.9968, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1074 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0549 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0395 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0346 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0292 } ], "others": -0.0648, "total": 0.9968, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118403 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.055538 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.038155 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.032202 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.027123 } ], "others_margin": -0.062971 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.58960485458374, "model_output": 4.5896, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4184 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.4063 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2449 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2209 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1578 } ], "others": -0.3101, "total": 4.5896, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114433 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.099838 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.0557 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.047707 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.032731 } ], "others_margin": -0.065399 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 2.355577230453491, "model_output": 2.3556, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.6318 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2284 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1696 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.1144 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0557 } ], "others": 0.1139, "total": 2.3556, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.376468 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.107449 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.072921 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.048573 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.024527 } ], "others_margin": 0.049494 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7659737467765808, "model_output": 0.766, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1622 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0602 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0263 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.019 } ], "others": 0.0525, "total": 0.766, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.162184 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.060179 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.026262 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.025288 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.019033 } ], "others_margin": 0.052472 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.057701110839844, "model_output": 7.0577, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0572 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0368 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0363 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0207 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0143 } ], "others": 0.1073, "total": 7.0577, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.057152 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.036843 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.036302 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.020726 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.014306 } ], "others_margin": 0.107238 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0121, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9641, "tackles": 1.6285, "tackles_won": 1.0089, "clearances": 4.6451, "aerial_won": 2.3841, "total_shots": 0.7753, "rating": 7.0577, "minutes": 79.06, "total_pass": 50.0249, "accurate_pass": 44.8014, "duels_won": 6.6796, "total_long_balls": 3.8185, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4468, "total_own_half_passes": 30.0483, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4362, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9765, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3653, "crosses_total": 0.0358, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.0045, "possession_lost": 6.513, "dispossessed": 0.2521, "duels_lost": 2.7421, "aerial_lost": 0.9547, "total_contest": 0.5063, "won_contest": 0.4792, "ball_recovery": 3.8146, "challenges_lost": 0.466, "fouls": 1.2686, "fouls_drawn": 1.0543, "blocks": 0.422, "goals": 0.1218, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "assists": 0.0051, "assist_rate": 0.0051, "expected_goals": 0.0592, "expected_assists": 0.0489, "shots_on_target": 0.4192, "big_chances_created": 0.0925, "xgot": 0.1739, "ball_carries": 16.9314, "total_progression": 76.3569, "progressive_carries": 0.6366, "key_pass": 0.4253, "shots_off_target": 0.3561 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 37000000, "quality_factor": 0.7641, "boost_factor": 1.0121, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9641, "tackles": 1.6285, "tackles_won": 1.0089, "clearances": 4.6451, "aerial_won": 2.3841, "total_shots": 0.7753, "rating": 7.0577, "minutes": 79.06, "total_pass": 50.0249, "accurate_pass": 44.8014, "duels_won": 6.6796, "total_long_balls": 3.8185, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4468, "total_own_half_passes": 30.0483, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4362, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9765, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3653, "crosses_total": 0.0358, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.0045, "possession_lost": 6.513, "dispossessed": 0.2521, "duels_lost": 2.7421, "aerial_lost": 0.9547, "total_contest": 0.5063, "won_contest": 0.4792, "ball_recovery": 3.8146, "challenges_lost": 0.466, "fouls": 1.2686, "fouls_drawn": 1.0543, "blocks": 0.422, "goals": 0.1218, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "assists": 0.0051, "assist_rate": 0.0051, "expected_goals": 0.0592, "expected_assists": 0.0489, "shots_on_target": 0.4192, "big_chances_created": 0.0925, "xgot": 0.1739, "ball_carries": 16.9314, "total_progression": 76.3569, "progressive_carries": 0.6366, "key_pass": 0.4253, "shots_off_target": 0.3561 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9641, "tackles": 1.6285, "tackles_won": 1.0089, "clearances": 4.6451, "aerial_won": 2.3841, "total_shots": 0.7753, "rating": 7.0577, "minutes": 79.06, "total_pass": 50.0249, "accurate_pass": 44.8014, "duels_won": 6.6796, "total_long_balls": 3.8185, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4468, "total_own_half_passes": 30.0483, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4362, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9765, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3653, "crosses_total": 0.0358, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.0045, "possession_lost": 6.513, "dispossessed": 0.2521, "duels_lost": 2.7421, "aerial_lost": 0.9547, "total_contest": 0.5063, "won_contest": 0.4792, "ball_recovery": 3.8146, "challenges_lost": 0.466, "fouls": 1.2686, "fouls_drawn": 1.0543, "blocks": 0.422, "goals": 0.1218, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "assists": 0.0051, "assist_rate": 0.0051, "expected_goals": 0.0592, "expected_assists": 0.0489, "shots_on_target": 0.4192, "big_chances_created": 0.0925, "xgot": 0.1739, "ball_carries": 16.9314, "total_progression": 76.3569, "progressive_carries": 0.6366, "key_pass": 0.4253, "shots_off_target": 0.3561, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.818, "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.71 (squad xG sum 1.9407, xG scale 1.3980, xA scale 1.7031, team xA 1.76 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9641, "tackles": 1.6285, "tackles_won": 1.0089, "clearances": 4.6451, "aerial_won": 2.3841, "total_shots": 0.7753, "rating": 7.0577, "minutes": 79.06, "total_pass": 50.0249, "accurate_pass": 44.8014, "duels_won": 6.6796, "total_long_balls": 3.8185, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4468, "total_own_half_passes": 30.0483, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4362, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9765, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3653, "crosses_total": 0.0358, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.0045, "possession_lost": 6.513, "dispossessed": 0.2521, "duels_lost": 2.7421, "aerial_lost": 0.9547, "total_contest": 0.5063, "won_contest": 0.4792, "ball_recovery": 3.8146, "challenges_lost": 0.466, "fouls": 1.2686, "fouls_drawn": 1.0543, "blocks": 0.422, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0828, "expected_assists": 0.0833, "shots_on_target": 0.4192, "big_chances_created": 0.0925, "xgot": 0.2431, "ball_carries": 16.9314, "total_progression": 76.3569, "progressive_carries": 0.6366, "key_pass": 0.4253, "shots_off_target": 0.3561, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.818, "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.713, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9407, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0355, "team_expected_assists": 1.7635, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.398, "xa_scale": 1.7031, "opponent_lambda": 1.163, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0592, "after": 0.0828 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0489, "after": 0.0833 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9641, "tackles": 1.6285, "tackles_won": 1.0089, "clearances": 4.6451, "aerial_won": 2.3841, "total_shots": 0.7753, "rating": 7.0577, "minutes": 79.06, "total_pass": 50.0249, "accurate_pass": 44.8014, "duels_won": 6.6796, "total_long_balls": 3.8185, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4468, "total_own_half_passes": 30.0483, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4362, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9765, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3653, "crosses_total": 0.0358, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.0045, "possession_lost": 6.513, "dispossessed": 0.2521, "duels_lost": 2.7421, "aerial_lost": 0.9547, "total_contest": 0.5063, "won_contest": 0.4792, "ball_recovery": 3.8146, "challenges_lost": 0.466, "fouls": 1.2686, "fouls_drawn": 1.0543, "blocks": 0.422, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0828, "expected_assists": 0.0833, "shots_on_target": 0.4192, "big_chances_created": 0.0925, "xgot": 0.2431, "ball_carries": 16.9314, "total_progression": 76.3569, "progressive_carries": 0.6366, "key_pass": 0.4253, "shots_off_target": 0.3561, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.818, "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 332, "fifa_rank": 372.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9641, "tackles": 1.6285, "tackles_won": 1.0089, "clearances": 4.6451, "aerial_won": 2.3841, "total_shots": 0.7753, "rating": 7.0577, "minutes": 79.06, "total_pass": 50.0249, "accurate_pass": 44.8014, "duels_won": 6.6796, "total_long_balls": 3.8185, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4468, "total_own_half_passes": 30.0483, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4362, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9765, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3653, "crosses_total": 0.0358, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.0045, "possession_lost": 6.513, "dispossessed": 0.2521, "duels_lost": 2.7421, "aerial_lost": 0.9547, "total_contest": 0.5063, "won_contest": 0.4792, "ball_recovery": 3.8146, "challenges_lost": 0.466, "fouls": 1.2686, "fouls_drawn": 1.0543, "blocks": 0.422, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0828, "expected_assists": 0.0833, "shots_on_target": 0.4192, "big_chances_created": 0.0925, "xgot": 0.2431, "ball_carries": 16.9314, "total_progression": 76.3569, "progressive_carries": 0.6366, "key_pass": 0.4253, "shots_off_target": 0.3561, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.818, "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0795, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0795, "scorer_weight": 0.1035, "squad_weight_total": 2.945, "weight_share": 0.0351, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jonathan David", "weight": 0.8639, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8639, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5239 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.5239, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5239, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4068 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9641, "tackles": 1.6285, "tackles_won": 1.0089, "clearances": 4.6451, "aerial_won": 2.3841, "total_shots": 0.7753, "rating": 7.0577, "minutes": 79.06, "total_pass": 50.0249, "accurate_pass": 44.8014, "duels_won": 6.6796, "total_long_balls": 3.8185, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4468, "total_own_half_passes": 30.0483, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4362, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9765, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3653, "crosses_total": 0.0358, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.0045, "possession_lost": 6.513, "dispossessed": 0.2521, "duels_lost": 2.7421, "aerial_lost": 0.9547, "total_contest": 0.5063, "won_contest": 0.4792, "ball_recovery": 3.8146, "challenges_lost": 0.466, "fouls": 1.2686, "fouls_drawn": 1.0543, "blocks": 0.422, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0051, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0828, "expected_assists": 0.0833, "shots_on_target": 0.4192, "big_chances_created": 0.0925, "xgot": 0.2431, "ball_carries": 16.9314, "total_progression": 76.3569, "progressive_carries": 0.6366, "key_pass": 0.4253, "shots_off_target": 0.3561, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.818, "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0795, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0799, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0799, "provider_weight": 0.0666, "squad_weight_total": 1.6801, "weight_share": 0.0397, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.2713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2713, "runner_up": "Marcos Llorente", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1959 } ] } } ] }, "Marc Pubill": { "player_id": 1094106, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 190, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7789, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 45, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 30, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 64, "possession_lost": 7.8077, "dispossessed": 0.2791, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0099, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0906, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.1645, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 75, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mariano Díaz", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0866, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0341, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8509, "fifa_overall": 87.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0282, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416335, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 36, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 83, "accurate_pass": 78, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0921, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 51, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0623, "expected_assists": 0.0403, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083735, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4462, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 39, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083661, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Girona FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2044, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 27, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083634, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083551, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 56, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 153, "combined_rank_score": 101.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 138.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.35, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 64.0, "fifa_overall": 87.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7789, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marc Pubill", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kipras Kazukolovas", "ranking": 148 }, { "player_name": "Fabián Mina", "ranking": 149 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Tah", "ranking": 150 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Méndez", "ranking": 151 }, { "player_name": "Elseid Hysaj", "ranking": 152 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alex Muralha", "ranking": 154 }, { "player_name": "Guilherme Arana", "ranking": 155 }, { "player_name": "Will Smallbone", "ranking": 156 }, { "player_name": "Do-dam Kim", "ranking": 157 }, { "player_name": "Nuno Mendes", "ranking": 158 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 25, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 25, "data_confidence": 0.767, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0156, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 155.0, "goals_per90": 0.5882352941176471, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.16, "shots_on_target_pct": 50.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1133 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 25 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Atlético Madrid, rel: 0.11, gls/90: 0.5882352941176471, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8011, "tackles": 1.3706, "tackles_won": 0.8621, "clearances": 2.9396, "aerial_won": 1.2526, "total_shots": 0.5914, "rating": 6.7789, "minutes": 78.44, "total_pass": 49.0745, "accurate_pass": 43.9185, "duels_won": 4.4905, "total_long_balls": 3.8086, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1426, "total_own_half_passes": 29.5221, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.8332, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5524, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0853, "crosses_total": 0.8499, "crosses_accurate": 0.2512, "touches": 63.2454, "possession_lost": 7.6878, "dispossessed": 0.2748, "duels_lost": 2.7465, "aerial_lost": 0.9618, "total_contest": 0.219, "won_contest": 0.1375, "ball_recovery": 2.8456, "challenges_lost": 0.3267, "fouls": 1.1101, "fouls_drawn": 0.8994, "blocks": 0.4628, "goals": 0.1507, "goal_rate": 0.1507, "assists": 0.0098, "assist_rate": 0.0098, "expected_goals": 0.0638, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "shots_on_target": 0.2268, "big_chances_created": 0.01, "xgot": 0.1159, "ball_carries": 15.5548, "total_progression": 73.9123, "progressive_carries": 1.1614, "key_pass": 0.032, "shots_off_target": 0.3646 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1526, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 22.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1297, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1103, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0937, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0797, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0677, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0576, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0489, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0416, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0354, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 2.3436, "aerialWon": 1.5048, "totalClearance_p90": 2.6712, "totalTackle": 1.304, "totalPass": 43.5783 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.8011024594306946, "model_output": 0.8011, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1154 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0998 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0193 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0178 } ], "others": -0.0494, "total": 0.8011, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126322 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.108279 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.027738 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.02249 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.020673 } ], "others_margin": -0.059889 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.370628833770752, "model_output": 1.3706, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1823 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.046 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0397 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0383 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0363 } ], "others": -0.1179, "total": 1.3706, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12293 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.029602 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.026255 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.026004 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.02471 } ], "others_margin": -0.082598 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.8620561957359314, "model_output": 0.8621, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1084 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0332 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0311 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0305 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0263 } ], "others": -0.0406, "total": 0.8621, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119421 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.035056 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.034072 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.033401 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.028692 } ], "others_margin": -0.046023 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.939640998840332, "model_output": 2.9396, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.522 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3989 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.3436 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1284 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0519 } ], "others": -0.1216, "total": 2.9396, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.163965 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127649 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.108965 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.042128 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.016827 } ], "others_margin": -0.040515 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.2525814771652222, "model_output": 1.2526, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1562 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1201 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0966 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0598 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.054 } ], "others": 0.0449, "total": 1.2526, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.107078 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.081321 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.070551 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.046274 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.043732 } ], "others_margin": 0.036454 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5913960933685303, "model_output": 0.5914, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0625 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0406 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0124, "total": 0.5914, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062462 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.040571 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.020948 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.01881 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.010121 } ], "others_margin": -0.012405 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.778853893280029, "model_output": 6.7789, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0154 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0013, "total": 6.7789, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.015425 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010502 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010394 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.010342 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.00967 } ], "others_margin": -0.001478 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0156, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8136, "tackles": 1.392, "tackles_won": 0.8755, "clearances": 2.9855, "aerial_won": 1.2721, "total_shots": 0.6006, "rating": 6.7789, "minutes": 78.44, "total_pass": 49.8401, "accurate_pass": 44.6036, "duels_won": 4.5606, "total_long_balls": 3.868, "accurate_long_balls": 2.176, "total_own_half_passes": 29.9826, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.2674, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3362, "crosses_total": 0.8632, "crosses_accurate": 0.2551, "touches": 64.232, "possession_lost": 7.8077, "dispossessed": 0.2791, "duels_lost": 2.7893, "aerial_lost": 0.9768, "total_contest": 0.2224, "won_contest": 0.1396, "ball_recovery": 2.89, "challenges_lost": 0.3318, "fouls": 1.1274, "fouls_drawn": 0.9134, "blocks": 0.47, "goals": 0.1531, "goal_rate": 0.1531, "assists": 0.01, "assist_rate": 0.01, "expected_goals": 0.0648, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "shots_on_target": 0.2303, "big_chances_created": 0.0102, "xgot": 0.1177, "ball_carries": 15.7975, "total_progression": 75.0653, "progressive_carries": 1.1795, "key_pass": 0.0325, "shots_off_target": 0.3703 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0156, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0123)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8036, "tackles": 1.392, "tackles_won": 0.871, "clearances": 2.9855, "aerial_won": 1.2721, "total_shots": 0.6056, "rating": 6.7789, "minutes": 78.44, "total_pass": 49.8401, "accurate_pass": 44.6036, "duels_won": 4.5606, "total_long_balls": 3.868, "accurate_long_balls": 2.176, "total_own_half_passes": 29.9826, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.2674, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3362, "crosses_total": 0.8652, "crosses_accurate": 0.2551, "touches": 64.232, "possession_lost": 7.8077, "dispossessed": 0.2791, "duels_lost": 2.7893, "aerial_lost": 0.9768, "total_contest": 0.2224, "won_contest": 0.1396, "ball_recovery": 2.89, "challenges_lost": 0.3318, "fouls": 1.1261, "fouls_drawn": 0.9148, "blocks": 0.47, "goals": 0.1575, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "assists": 0.0099, "assist_rate": 0.0099, "expected_goals": 0.0648, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "shots_on_target": 0.2337, "big_chances_created": 0.0102, "xgot": 0.1177, "ball_carries": 15.7975, "total_progression": 75.0653, "progressive_carries": 1.1795, "key_pass": 0.0325, "shots_off_target": 0.3703 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0123, "history_matches": 25, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8716, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.8136, "after": 0.8036 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6006, "after": 0.6056 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8036, "tackles": 1.392, "tackles_won": 0.871, "clearances": 2.9855, "aerial_won": 1.2721, "total_shots": 0.6056, "rating": 6.7789, "minutes": 78.44, "total_pass": 49.8401, "accurate_pass": 44.6036, "duels_won": 4.5606, "total_long_balls": 3.868, "accurate_long_balls": 2.176, "total_own_half_passes": 29.9826, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.2674, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3362, "crosses_total": 0.8652, "crosses_accurate": 0.2551, "touches": 64.232, "possession_lost": 7.8077, "dispossessed": 0.2791, "duels_lost": 2.7893, "aerial_lost": 0.9768, "total_contest": 0.2224, "won_contest": 0.1396, "ball_recovery": 2.89, "challenges_lost": 0.3318, "fouls": 1.1261, "fouls_drawn": 0.9148, "blocks": 0.47, "goals": 0.1575, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "assists": 0.0099, "assist_rate": 0.0099, "expected_goals": 0.0648, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "shots_on_target": 0.2337, "big_chances_created": 0.0102, "xgot": 0.1177, "ball_carries": 15.7975, "total_progression": 75.0653, "progressive_carries": 1.1795, "key_pass": 0.0325, "shots_off_target": 0.3703 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8036, "tackles": 1.392, "tackles_won": 0.871, "clearances": 2.9855, "aerial_won": 1.2721, "total_shots": 0.6056, "rating": 6.7789, "minutes": 78.44, "total_pass": 49.8401, "accurate_pass": 44.6036, "duels_won": 4.5606, "total_long_balls": 3.868, "accurate_long_balls": 2.176, "total_own_half_passes": 29.9826, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.2674, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3362, "crosses_total": 0.8652, "crosses_accurate": 0.2551, "touches": 64.232, "possession_lost": 7.8077, "dispossessed": 0.2791, "duels_lost": 2.7893, "aerial_lost": 0.9768, "total_contest": 0.2224, "won_contest": 0.1396, "ball_recovery": 2.89, "challenges_lost": 0.3318, "fouls": 1.1261, "fouls_drawn": 0.9148, "blocks": 0.47, "goals": 0.1575, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "assists": 0.0099, "assist_rate": 0.0099, "expected_goals": 0.0648, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "shots_on_target": 0.2337, "big_chances_created": 0.0102, "xgot": 0.1177, "ball_carries": 15.7975, "total_progression": 75.0653, "progressive_carries": 1.1795, "key_pass": 0.0325, "shots_off_target": 0.3703, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mariano Díaz", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mariano Díaz", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.71 (squad xG sum 1.9407, xG scale 1.3980, xA scale 1.7031, team xA 1.76 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8036, "tackles": 1.392, "tackles_won": 0.871, "clearances": 2.9855, "aerial_won": 1.2721, "total_shots": 0.6056, "rating": 6.7789, "minutes": 78.44, "total_pass": 49.8401, "accurate_pass": 44.6036, "duels_won": 4.5606, "total_long_balls": 3.868, "accurate_long_balls": 2.176, "total_own_half_passes": 29.9826, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.2674, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3362, "crosses_total": 0.8652, "crosses_accurate": 0.2551, "touches": 64.232, "possession_lost": 7.8077, "dispossessed": 0.2791, "duels_lost": 2.7893, "aerial_lost": 0.9768, "total_contest": 0.2224, "won_contest": 0.1396, "ball_recovery": 2.89, "challenges_lost": 0.3318, "fouls": 1.1261, "fouls_drawn": 0.9148, "blocks": 0.47, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0099, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0906, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "shots_on_target": 0.2337, "big_chances_created": 0.0102, "xgot": 0.1645, "ball_carries": 15.7975, "total_progression": 75.0653, "progressive_carries": 1.1795, "key_pass": 0.0325, "shots_off_target": 0.3703, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mariano Díaz", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8509 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.713, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9407, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0355, "team_expected_assists": 1.7635, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.398, "xa_scale": 1.7031, "opponent_lambda": 1.163, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0648, "after": 0.0906 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0204, "after": 0.0347 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 87.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8036, "tackles": 1.392, "tackles_won": 0.871, "clearances": 2.9855, "aerial_won": 1.2721, "total_shots": 0.6056, "rating": 6.7789, "minutes": 78.44, "total_pass": 49.8401, "accurate_pass": 44.6036, "duels_won": 4.5606, "total_long_balls": 3.868, "accurate_long_balls": 2.176, "total_own_half_passes": 29.9826, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.2674, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3362, "crosses_total": 0.8652, "crosses_accurate": 0.2551, "touches": 64.232, "possession_lost": 7.8077, "dispossessed": 0.2791, "duels_lost": 2.7893, "aerial_lost": 0.9768, "total_contest": 0.2224, "won_contest": 0.1396, "ball_recovery": 2.89, "challenges_lost": 0.3318, "fouls": 1.1261, "fouls_drawn": 0.9148, "blocks": 0.47, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0099, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0906, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "shots_on_target": 0.2337, "big_chances_created": 0.0102, "xgot": 0.1645, "ball_carries": 15.7975, "total_progression": 75.0653, "progressive_carries": 1.1795, "key_pass": 0.0325, "shots_off_target": 0.3703, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mariano Díaz", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8509, "fifa_overall": 87.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 153, "fifa_rank": 64.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 87.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8036, "tackles": 1.392, "tackles_won": 0.871, "clearances": 2.9855, "aerial_won": 1.2721, "total_shots": 0.6056, "rating": 6.7789, "minutes": 78.44, "total_pass": 49.8401, "accurate_pass": 44.6036, "duels_won": 4.5606, "total_long_balls": 3.868, "accurate_long_balls": 2.176, "total_own_half_passes": 29.9826, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.2674, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3362, "crosses_total": 0.8652, "crosses_accurate": 0.2551, "touches": 64.232, "possession_lost": 7.8077, "dispossessed": 0.2791, "duels_lost": 2.7893, "aerial_lost": 0.9768, "total_contest": 0.2224, "won_contest": 0.1396, "ball_recovery": 2.89, "challenges_lost": 0.3318, "fouls": 1.1261, "fouls_drawn": 0.9148, "blocks": 0.47, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0099, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0906, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "shots_on_target": 0.2337, "big_chances_created": 0.0102, "xgot": 0.1645, "ball_carries": 15.7975, "total_progression": 75.0653, "progressive_carries": 1.1795, "key_pass": 0.0325, "shots_off_target": 0.3703, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mariano Díaz", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0866, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8509, "fifa_overall": 87.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0866, "scorer_weight": 0.1133, "squad_weight_total": 2.945, "weight_share": 0.0385, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jonathan David", "weight": 0.8639, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8639, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5239 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.5239, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5239, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4068 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8036, "tackles": 1.392, "tackles_won": 0.871, "clearances": 2.9855, "aerial_won": 1.2721, "total_shots": 0.6056, "rating": 6.7789, "minutes": 78.44, "total_pass": 49.8401, "accurate_pass": 44.6036, "duels_won": 4.5606, "total_long_balls": 3.868, "accurate_long_balls": 2.176, "total_own_half_passes": 29.9826, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.2674, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3362, "crosses_total": 0.8652, "crosses_accurate": 0.2551, "touches": 64.232, "possession_lost": 7.8077, "dispossessed": 0.2791, "duels_lost": 2.7893, "aerial_lost": 0.9768, "total_contest": 0.2224, "won_contest": 0.1396, "ball_recovery": 2.89, "challenges_lost": 0.3318, "fouls": 1.1261, "fouls_drawn": 0.9148, "blocks": 0.47, "goal_rate": 0.1575, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0099, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0906, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "shots_on_target": 0.2337, "big_chances_created": 0.0102, "xgot": 0.1645, "ball_carries": 15.7975, "total_progression": 75.0653, "progressive_carries": 1.1795, "key_pass": 0.0325, "shots_off_target": 0.3703, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mariano Díaz", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0866, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0341, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8509, "fifa_overall": 87.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0341, "provider_weight": 0.0295, "squad_weight_total": 1.6801, "weight_share": 0.0176, "creation_factor": 0.8509, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.2713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2713, "runner_up": "Marcos Llorente", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1959 } ] } } ] }, "Jan Oblak": { "player_id": 69768, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 189, "market_value": 16000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0131, "rating": 7.0051, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 21, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 38, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.6445, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 7.7975, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3195, "shots_faced": 11.0, "expected_saves": 2.69, "high_pressure_saves": 0.93, "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez, Mariano Díaz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.5685 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416335, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.3059 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.4909 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -1.7703 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 22, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.3214 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.9056 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0174 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083661, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Girona FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 27, "ball_recovery": 15, "saves": 11, "goals_prevented": 1.0844 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083551, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 22, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "goals_prevented": -0.5452 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083242, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.7538 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 121, "combined_rank_score": 112.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 180.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 45.0, "fifa_overall": 88.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0051, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jan Oblak", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Viktor Gyökeres", "ranking": 116 }, { "player_name": "Matías Zaldivia", "ranking": 117 }, { "player_name": "Adrián de la Fuente", "ranking": 118 }, { "player_name": "Jaylan Hankins", "ranking": 119 }, { "player_name": "Marquinhos", "ranking": 120 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Morgan Rogers", "ranking": 122 }, { "player_name": "Joan García", "ranking": 123 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Henrique", "ranking": 124 }, { "player_name": "Jung Seung-bae", "ranking": 125 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Badolato", "ranking": 126 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 37, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.003, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 37 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Atlético Madrid, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.8586, "goals_prevented": 0.0131, "rating": 7.0051, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.7468, "accurate_pass": 21.1045, "total_long_balls": 12.8079, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4389, "touches": 37.6449, "clearances": 0.4977, "ball_recovery": 8.8981, "high_claims": 0.704, "punches": 0.6426, "aerial_won": 0.1354, "sweeper_actions": 0.6734, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6734, "saves_inside_box": 1.1876, "possession_lost": 7.7742, "duels_won": 0.2319, "duels_lost": 0.005, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0972, "total_own_half_passes": 21.3353, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6082 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:04:18.353158+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 199, "rows": 6796 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 5.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 9.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.4694, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8746, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.3369, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": -0.0489, "save_contribution": 2.524, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.6734 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8586199283599854, "model_output": 2.8586, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0362 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9286, "items": [ { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": -0.0264 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0129 } ], "others": -0.013, "total": 2.8586, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.074537, "item_margins": [ { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": -0.009059 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.007377 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.005771 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.004528 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.004497 } ], "others_margin": -0.004508 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.013057002797722816, "model_output": 0.0131, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0385 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0166, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0459 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.015 } ], "others": 0.0115, "total": 0.0131, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.045932 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.020605 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.01685 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": -0.016519 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.015018 } ], "others_margin": 0.01152 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.005111217498779, "model_output": 7.0051, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0351 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": 0.0109 } ], "others": -0.0284, "total": 7.0051, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.009122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.035127 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.019717 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.013395 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.01154 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": 0.010946 } ], "others_margin": -0.028512 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 37, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0030, quality 0.590)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8672, "goals_prevented": 0.0131, "rating": 7.0051, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.833, "accurate_pass": 21.1678, "total_long_balls": 12.8463, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4552, "touches": 37.7578, "clearances": 0.4992, "ball_recovery": 8.9248, "high_claims": 0.7061, "punches": 0.6445, "aerial_won": 0.1358, "sweeper_actions": 0.6754, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6754, "saves_inside_box": 1.1912, "possession_lost": 7.7975, "duels_won": 0.2326, "duels_lost": 0.005, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0975, "total_own_half_passes": 21.3993, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.664 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16000000, "quality_factor": 0.59, "boost_factor": 1.003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0155)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8693, "goals_prevented": 0.0131, "rating": 7.0051, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.833, "accurate_pass": 21.1678, "total_long_balls": 12.8463, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4552, "touches": 37.7578, "clearances": 0.4992, "ball_recovery": 8.9248, "high_claims": 0.7061, "punches": 0.6445, "aerial_won": 0.1358, "sweeper_actions": 0.6754, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6754, "saves_inside_box": 1.1912, "possession_lost": 7.7975, "duels_won": 0.2326, "duels_lost": 0.005, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1011, "total_own_half_passes": 21.3993, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.664 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0155, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.8693, "goals_prevented": 0.0131, "rating": 7.0051, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.833, "accurate_pass": 21.1678, "total_long_balls": 12.8463, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4552, "touches": 37.7578, "clearances": 0.4992, "ball_recovery": 8.9248, "high_claims": 0.7061, "punches": 0.6445, "aerial_won": 0.1358, "sweeper_actions": 0.6754, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6754, "saves_inside_box": 1.1912, "possession_lost": 7.7975, "duels_won": 0.2326, "duels_lost": 0.005, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1011, "total_own_half_passes": 21.3993, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.664 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8693, "goals_prevented": 0.0131, "rating": 7.0051, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.833, "accurate_pass": 21.1678, "total_long_balls": 12.8463, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4552, "touches": 37.7578, "clearances": 0.4992, "ball_recovery": 8.9248, "high_claims": 0.7061, "punches": 0.6445, "aerial_won": 0.1358, "sweeper_actions": 0.6754, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6754, "saves_inside_box": 1.1912, "possession_lost": 7.7975, "duels_won": 0.2326, "duels_lost": 0.005, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1011, "total_own_half_passes": 21.3993, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.664, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3195, "shots_faced": 12.5, "expected_saves": 3.06, "high_pressure_saves": 1.06, "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez, Mariano Díaz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez, Mariano Díaz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.3195 } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.71 (squad xG sum 1.9407, xG scale 1.3980, xA scale 1.7031, team xA 1.76 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8693, "goals_prevented": 0.0131, "rating": 7.0051, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.833, "accurate_pass": 21.1678, "total_long_balls": 12.8463, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4552, "touches": 37.7578, "clearances": 0.4992, "ball_recovery": 8.9248, "high_claims": 0.7061, "punches": 0.6445, "aerial_won": 0.1358, "sweeper_actions": 0.6754, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6754, "saves_inside_box": 1.1912, "possession_lost": 7.7975, "duels_won": 0.2326, "duels_lost": 0.005, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1011, "total_own_half_passes": 21.3993, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.664, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3195, "shots_faced": 11.0, "expected_saves": 2.69, "high_pressure_saves": 0.93, "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez, Mariano Díaz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.713, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9407, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0355, "team_expected_assists": 1.7635, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.398, "xa_scale": 1.7031, "opponent_lambda": 1.163, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 12.5, "after": 11.0 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.06, "after": 2.69 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.06, "after": 0.93 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 88.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8693, "goals_prevented": 0.0131, "rating": 7.0051, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.833, "accurate_pass": 21.1678, "total_long_balls": 12.8463, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4552, "touches": 37.7578, "clearances": 0.4992, "ball_recovery": 8.9248, "high_claims": 0.7061, "punches": 0.6445, "aerial_won": 0.1358, "sweeper_actions": 0.6754, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6754, "saves_inside_box": 1.1912, "possession_lost": 7.7975, "duels_won": 0.2326, "duels_lost": 0.005, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1011, "total_own_half_passes": 21.3993, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.664, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3195, "shots_faced": 11.0, "expected_saves": 2.69, "high_pressure_saves": 0.93, "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez, Mariano Díaz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 121, "fifa_rank": 45.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 88.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8693, "goals_prevented": 0.0131, "rating": 7.0051, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.833, "accurate_pass": 21.1678, "total_long_balls": 12.8463, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4552, "touches": 37.7578, "clearances": 0.4992, "ball_recovery": 8.9248, "high_claims": 0.7061, "punches": 0.6445, "aerial_won": 0.1358, "sweeper_actions": 0.6754, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6754, "saves_inside_box": 1.1912, "possession_lost": 7.7975, "duels_won": 0.2326, "duels_lost": 0.005, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1011, "total_own_half_passes": 21.3993, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.664, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3195, "shots_faced": 11.0, "expected_saves": 2.69, "high_pressure_saves": 0.93, "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez, Mariano Díaz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 2.945, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jonathan David", "weight": 0.8639, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8639, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5239 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.5239, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5239, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4068 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8693, "goals_prevented": 0.0131, "rating": 7.0051, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.833, "accurate_pass": 21.1678, "total_long_balls": 12.8463, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4552, "touches": 37.7578, "clearances": 0.4992, "ball_recovery": 8.9248, "high_claims": 0.7061, "punches": 0.6445, "aerial_won": 0.1358, "sweeper_actions": 0.6754, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6754, "saves_inside_box": 1.1912, "possession_lost": 7.7975, "duels_won": 0.2326, "duels_lost": 0.005, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1011, "total_own_half_passes": 21.3993, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.664, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3195, "shots_faced": 11.0, "expected_saves": 2.69, "high_pressure_saves": 0.93, "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez, Mariano Díaz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.6801, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.2713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2713, "runner_up": "Marcos Llorente", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1959 } ] } } ] }, "Alex Baena": { "player_id": 910031, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 174, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3254, "goal_rate": 0.3056, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.3391, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 7.2611, "minutes": 73, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 12.1248, "dispossessed": 0.8528, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0617, "assists": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.4142, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1882, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.328, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2778, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.2876, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.024, "expected_assists": 0.0931, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416335, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5648, "expected_assists": 0.4472, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0485, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1281, "expected_assists": 0.3008, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 9.2, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2852, "expected_assists": 0.1508, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1268, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0671, "expected_assists": 0.1075, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083735, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0648, "expected_assists": 0.1678, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083661, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Girona FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1024, "expected_assists": 0.1685, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083551, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 8.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0234, "expected_assists": 1.4343, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 244, "combined_rank_score": 182.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 52.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 312.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.2611, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alex Baena", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Federico Botti", "ranking": 239 }, { "player_name": "Jeisson Vargas", "ranking": 240 }, { "player_name": "Léo Pereira", "ranking": 241 }, { "player_name": "Andrei Cojuhar", "ranking": 242 }, { "player_name": "Willian Pacho", "ranking": 243 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Denzel Dumfries", "ranking": 245 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Barrios", "ranking": 246 }, { "player_name": "Joaquín Moya", "ranking": 247 }, { "player_name": "Leonard Pllana", "ranking": 248 }, { "player_name": "Eldor Adhamov", "ranking": 249 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.768, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 34, "data_confidence": 0.768, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.012, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 163.0, "goals_per90": 1.6666666666666663, "assists_per90": 0.5555555555555556, "shots_per90": 2.76, "shots_on_target_pct": 60.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 34 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Atlético Madrid, rel: 0.12, gls/90: 1.6666666666666663, ast/90: 0.5555555555555556)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1935, "goals": 0.2433, "goal_rate": 0.2433, "shots_on_target": 0.7866, "total_shots": 2.0671, "expected_assists": 0.1967, "key_pass": 2.0456, "rating": 7.2611, "minutes": 72.74, "total_pass": 35.6409, "accurate_pass": 29.4863, "duels_won": 2.3103, "total_long_balls": 2.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6967, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.5322, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4799, "crosses_total": 3.5546, "crosses_accurate": 0.9559, "touches": 50.8253, "possession_lost": 11.981, "dispossessed": 0.8427, "duels_lost": 4.8357, "aerial_lost": 0.9735, "total_contest": 1.1956, "won_contest": 0.1963, "ball_recovery": 2.4268, "challenges_lost": 0.9525, "fouls": 1.1007, "fouls_drawn": 1.2211, "assists": 0.0571, "assist_rate": 0.0571, "interceptions": 1.3315, "tackles_won": 0.466, "tackles": 0.7133, "clearances": 0.341, "blocks": 0.071, "big_chances_created": 0.3972, "big_chances_missed": 0.0091, "xgot": 0.2464, "offsides": 0.1944, "ball_carries": 14.5106, "total_progression": 58.6974, "progressive_carries": 2.6873, "shots_off_target": 1.2804 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1506, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.128, "rating": 8.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1088, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0925, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 9.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 8.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.137, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 22.6741, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 17.6386, "accuratePass": 27.8793, "totalShots": 1.9813 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.19353049993515015, "model_output": 0.1935, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0695 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0484 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0122, "total": 0.1935, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.299501 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.198744 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.065663 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.058034 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.056045 } ], "others_margin": -0.060746 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.24326761066913605, "model_output": 0.2433, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0842 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0375 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": 0.0101, "total": 0.2433, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.345789 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.139626 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.076136 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.061584 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.056189 } ], "others_margin": 0.04185 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7866231203079224, "model_output": 0.7866, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.181 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.051 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0411 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0372 } ], "others": 0.0842, "total": 0.7866, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.290463 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.073685 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.063651 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.06094 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.05439 } ], "others_margin": 0.113332 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.0670676231384277, "model_output": 2.0671, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4778 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1105 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0751 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0535 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0467 } ], "others": 0.1252, "total": 2.0671, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.47784 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.110532 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.07508 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.053464 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.046707 } ], "others_margin": 0.125079 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.1967306286096573, "model_output": 0.1967, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0115 } ], "others": 0.0645, "total": 0.1967, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.193796 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.186304 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.146908 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.103139 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.091291 } ], "others_margin": 0.397096 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 2.0456018447875977, "model_output": 2.0456, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2054 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0956 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.101 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0841 } ], "others": 0.7106, "total": 2.0456, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.265961 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.181396 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.086841 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.08418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.065082 } ], "others_margin": 0.426791 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.261079788208008, "model_output": 7.2611, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1139 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0778 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.073 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0636 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0461 } ], "others": 0.1245, "total": 7.2611, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.113937 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.077833 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.073021 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.063575 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.046127 } ], "others_margin": 0.124426 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 26, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0120, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1959, "goals": 0.2462, "goal_rate": 0.2462, "shots_on_target": 0.7961, "total_shots": 2.0919, "expected_assists": 0.1991, "key_pass": 2.0701, "rating": 7.2611, "minutes": 72.74, "total_pass": 36.0686, "accurate_pass": 29.8401, "duels_won": 2.338, "total_long_balls": 2.2061, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7171, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8146, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7017, "crosses_total": 3.5973, "crosses_accurate": 0.9674, "touches": 51.4352, "possession_lost": 12.1248, "dispossessed": 0.8528, "duels_lost": 4.8937, "aerial_lost": 0.9852, "total_contest": 1.2099, "won_contest": 0.1987, "ball_recovery": 2.4559, "challenges_lost": 0.9639, "fouls": 1.1139, "fouls_drawn": 1.2358, "assists": 0.0578, "assist_rate": 0.0578, "interceptions": 1.3475, "tackles_won": 0.4716, "tackles": 0.7219, "clearances": 0.3451, "blocks": 0.0719, "big_chances_created": 0.402, "big_chances_missed": 0.0092, "xgot": 0.2494, "offsides": 0.1967, "ball_carries": 14.6847, "total_progression": 59.4018, "progressive_carries": 2.7195, "shots_off_target": 1.2958 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.012, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0100)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1959, "goals": 0.2572, "goal_rate": 0.2572, "shots_on_target": 0.8016, "total_shots": 2.0933, "expected_assists": 0.1991, "key_pass": 2.0701, "rating": 7.2611, "minutes": 72.74, "total_pass": 36.0686, "accurate_pass": 29.8401, "duels_won": 2.338, "total_long_balls": 2.2061, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7171, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8146, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7017, "crosses_total": 3.5793, "crosses_accurate": 0.9674, "touches": 51.4352, "possession_lost": 12.1248, "dispossessed": 0.8528, "duels_lost": 4.8937, "aerial_lost": 0.9852, "total_contest": 1.2099, "won_contest": 0.1987, "ball_recovery": 2.4559, "challenges_lost": 0.9639, "fouls": 1.1207, "fouls_drawn": 1.2414, "assists": 0.0617, "assist_rate": 0.0617, "interceptions": 1.3385, "tackles_won": 0.4669, "tackles": 0.7219, "clearances": 0.3451, "blocks": 0.0719, "big_chances_created": 0.402, "big_chances_missed": 0.0092, "xgot": 0.2494, "offsides": 0.2037, "ball_carries": 14.6847, "total_progression": 59.4018, "progressive_carries": 2.7195, "shots_off_target": 1.2958 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.01, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8082, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.5973, "after": 3.5793 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2462, "after": 0.2572 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.3475, "after": 1.3385 }, { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.1967, "after": 0.2037 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.1139, "after": 1.1207 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.2358, "after": 1.2414 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7961, "after": 0.8016 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1959, "goals": 0.2572, "goal_rate": 0.2572, "shots_on_target": 0.8016, "total_shots": 2.0974, "expected_assists": 0.1991, "key_pass": 2.0701, "rating": 7.2611, "minutes": 72.74, "total_pass": 36.0686, "accurate_pass": 29.8401, "duels_won": 2.338, "total_long_balls": 2.2061, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7171, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8146, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7017, "crosses_total": 3.5793, "crosses_accurate": 0.9674, "touches": 51.4352, "possession_lost": 12.1248, "dispossessed": 0.8528, "duels_lost": 4.8937, "aerial_lost": 0.9852, "total_contest": 1.2099, "won_contest": 0.1987, "ball_recovery": 2.4559, "challenges_lost": 0.9639, "fouls": 1.1207, "fouls_drawn": 1.2414, "assists": 0.0617, "assist_rate": 0.0617, "interceptions": 1.3385, "tackles_won": 0.4669, "tackles": 0.7219, "clearances": 0.3451, "blocks": 0.0719, "big_chances_created": 0.402, "big_chances_missed": 0.0092, "xgot": 0.2494, "offsides": 0.2037, "ball_carries": 14.6847, "total_progression": 59.4018, "progressive_carries": 2.7195, "shots_off_target": 1.2958 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2328, "goals": 0.3056, "goal_rate": 0.3056, "shots_on_target": 0.9525, "total_shots": 2.4922, "expected_assists": 0.1991, "key_pass": 2.0701, "rating": 7.2611, "minutes": 72.74, "total_pass": 36.0686, "accurate_pass": 29.8401, "duels_won": 2.338, "total_long_balls": 2.2061, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7171, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8146, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7017, "crosses_total": 3.5793, "crosses_accurate": 0.9674, "touches": 51.4352, "possession_lost": 12.1248, "dispossessed": 0.8528, "duels_lost": 4.8937, "aerial_lost": 0.9852, "total_contest": 1.2099, "won_contest": 0.1987, "ball_recovery": 2.4559, "challenges_lost": 0.9639, "fouls": 1.1207, "fouls_drawn": 1.2414, "assists": 0.0617, "assist_rate": 0.0617, "interceptions": 1.3385, "tackles_won": 0.4669, "tackles": 0.7219, "clearances": 0.3451, "blocks": 0.0719, "big_chances_created": 0.402, "big_chances_missed": 0.0109, "xgot": 0.2963, "offsides": 0.2037, "ball_carries": 14.6847, "total_progression": 59.4018, "progressive_carries": 2.7195, "shots_off_target": 1.5397, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1882, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.328, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.328, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.1882, "skill_edge": 0.164, "height_edge": -0.036, "attacker_skill": 0.8168, "defender_skill": 0.4523, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "market_value": 3200000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4531 }, { "player": "Nicolás Valentini", "market_value": 3100000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4515 } ], "xg_override": 0.2328 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0974, "after": 2.4922 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.2958, "after": 1.5397 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8016, "after": 0.9525 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2572, "after": 0.3056 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2494, "after": 0.2963 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1959, "after": 0.2328 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.71 (squad xG sum 1.9407, xG scale 1.3980, xA scale 1.7031, team xA 1.76 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3254, "goal_rate": 0.3056, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9525, "total_shots": 2.4922, "expected_assists": 0.3391, "key_pass": 2.0701, "rating": 7.2611, "minutes": 72.74, "total_pass": 36.0686, "accurate_pass": 29.8401, "duels_won": 2.338, "total_long_balls": 2.2061, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7171, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8146, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7017, "crosses_total": 3.5793, "crosses_accurate": 0.9674, "touches": 51.4352, "possession_lost": 12.1248, "dispossessed": 0.8528, "duels_lost": 4.8937, "aerial_lost": 0.9852, "total_contest": 1.2099, "won_contest": 0.1987, "ball_recovery": 2.4559, "challenges_lost": 0.9639, "fouls": 1.1207, "fouls_drawn": 1.2414, "assist_rate": 0.0617, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.3385, "tackles_won": 0.4669, "tackles": 0.7219, "clearances": 0.3451, "blocks": 0.0719, "big_chances_created": 0.402, "big_chances_missed": 0.0109, "xgot": 0.4142, "offsides": 0.2037, "ball_carries": 14.6847, "total_progression": 59.4018, "progressive_carries": 2.7195, "shots_off_target": 1.5397, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1882, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.328, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.713, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9407, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0355, "team_expected_assists": 1.7635, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.398, "xa_scale": 1.7031, "opponent_lambda": 1.163, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2328, "after": 0.3254 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1991, "after": 0.3391 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3254, "goal_rate": 0.3056, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9525, "total_shots": 2.4922, "expected_assists": 0.3391, "key_pass": 2.0701, "rating": 7.2611, "minutes": 72.74, "total_pass": 36.0686, "accurate_pass": 29.8401, "duels_won": 2.338, "total_long_balls": 2.2061, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7171, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8146, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7017, "crosses_total": 3.5793, "crosses_accurate": 0.9674, "touches": 51.4352, "possession_lost": 12.1248, "dispossessed": 0.8528, "duels_lost": 4.8937, "aerial_lost": 0.9852, "total_contest": 1.2099, "won_contest": 0.1987, "ball_recovery": 2.4559, "challenges_lost": 0.9639, "fouls": 1.1207, "fouls_drawn": 1.2414, "assist_rate": 0.0617, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.3385, "tackles_won": 0.4669, "tackles": 0.7219, "clearances": 0.3451, "blocks": 0.0719, "big_chances_created": 0.402, "big_chances_missed": 0.0109, "xgot": 0.4142, "offsides": 0.2037, "ball_carries": 14.6847, "total_progression": 59.4018, "progressive_carries": 2.7195, "shots_off_target": 1.5397, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1882, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.328, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 244, "fifa_rank": 312.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3254, "goal_rate": 0.3056, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9525, "total_shots": 2.4922, "expected_assists": 0.3391, "key_pass": 2.0701, "rating": 7.2611, "minutes": 72.74, "total_pass": 36.0686, "accurate_pass": 29.8401, "duels_won": 2.338, "total_long_balls": 2.2061, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7171, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8146, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7017, "crosses_total": 3.5793, "crosses_accurate": 0.9674, "touches": 51.4352, "possession_lost": 12.1248, "dispossessed": 0.8528, "duels_lost": 4.8937, "aerial_lost": 0.9852, "total_contest": 1.2099, "won_contest": 0.1987, "ball_recovery": 2.4559, "challenges_lost": 0.9639, "fouls": 1.1207, "fouls_drawn": 1.2414, "assist_rate": 0.0617, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.3385, "tackles_won": 0.4669, "tackles": 0.7219, "clearances": 0.3451, "blocks": 0.0719, "big_chances_created": 0.402, "big_chances_missed": 0.0109, "xgot": 0.4142, "offsides": 0.2037, "ball_carries": 14.6847, "total_progression": 59.4018, "progressive_carries": 2.7195, "shots_off_target": 1.5397, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1882, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.328, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2778, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2778, "scorer_weight": 0.4068, "squad_weight_total": 2.945, "weight_share": 0.1381, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jonathan David", "weight": 0.8639, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8639, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5239 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.5239, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5239, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4068 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3254, "goal_rate": 0.3056, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9525, "total_shots": 2.4922, "expected_assists": 0.3391, "key_pass": 2.0701, "rating": 7.2611, "minutes": 72.74, "total_pass": 36.0686, "accurate_pass": 29.8401, "duels_won": 2.338, "total_long_balls": 2.2061, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7171, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8146, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7017, "crosses_total": 3.5793, "crosses_accurate": 0.9674, "touches": 51.4352, "possession_lost": 12.1248, "dispossessed": 0.8528, "duels_lost": 4.8937, "aerial_lost": 0.9852, "total_contest": 1.2099, "won_contest": 0.1987, "ball_recovery": 2.4559, "challenges_lost": 0.9639, "fouls": 1.1207, "fouls_drawn": 1.2414, "assist_rate": 0.0617, "assists": 1, "interceptions": 1.3385, "tackles_won": 0.4669, "tackles": 0.7219, "clearances": 0.3451, "blocks": 0.0719, "big_chances_created": 0.402, "big_chances_missed": 0.0109, "xgot": 0.4142, "offsides": 0.2037, "ball_carries": 14.6847, "total_progression": 59.4018, "progressive_carries": 2.7195, "shots_off_target": 1.5397, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1882, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.328, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "opponent_faced": "Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2778, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.2876, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.2876, "provider_weight": 0.2713, "squad_weight_total": 1.6801, "weight_share": 0.1615, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.2713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2713, "runner_up": "Marcos Llorente", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1959 } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Juan Musso": { "player_id": 263651, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 191, "market_value": 3200000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": -0.0131, "rating": 6.9308, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "touches": 6, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.1192, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 1.069, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083735, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -1.5578 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083634, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.201 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083476, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 25, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083161, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 22, "ball_recovery": 13, "goals_prevented": -0.7825 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081810, "match_date": "2026-04-04", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 0.3665 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081807, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -1.2567 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083612, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 1.1327 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083131, "match_date": "2025-11-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0135 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 315, "combined_rank_score": 216.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 21.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.1, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 411.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9308, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Juan Musso", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Josh Wilson-Esbrand", "ranking": 310 }, { "player_name": "Choi Jun-yeong", "ranking": 311 }, { "player_name": "Wladimiro Falcone", "ranking": 312 }, { "player_name": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "ranking": 313 }, { "player_name": "Bojan Ciger", "ranking": 314 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ju-kong Kim", "ranking": 316 }, { "player_name": "Jae-yong Bak", "ranking": 317 }, { "player_name": "Bryan Mbeumo", "ranking": 318 }, { "player_name": "Sandzhar Kuvvatov", "ranking": 319 }, { "player_name": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "ranking": 320 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 8, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 8, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.40206294284004, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.10918467922000183, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9925, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (8 historical appearances) to 4.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.11); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.8765, "goals_prevented": -0.0856, "rating": 6.9308, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 27.6104, "accurate_pass": 20.9615, "total_long_balls": 11.5241, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8752, "touches": 40.563, "clearances": 1.0442, "ball_recovery": 10.0156, "high_claims": 1.6892, "punches": 0.7776, "aerial_won": 0.8546, "sweeper_actions": 0.7251, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7251, "saves_inside_box": 1.7757, "possession_lost": 6.9731, "duels_won": 0.9324, "duels_lost": 0.2062, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2062, "fouls_drawn": 0.3757, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0245, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0589 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:04:18.353158+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 199, "rows": 6796 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2062, "rating": 5.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1753, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.149, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1266, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-04", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1076, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0915, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0778, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2025-11-23", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0661, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 8.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.4196, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9105, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.312, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.1493, "save_contribution": 2.3506, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.7251 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8764562606811523, "model_output": 2.8765, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0362 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9286, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1716 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0679 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.0195 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0126 } ], "others": -0.0044, "total": 2.8765, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.074537, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.060366 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.024323 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.008426 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": 0.006829 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.004393 } ], "others_margin": -0.001585 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.08563317358493805, "model_output": -0.0856, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0385 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0166, "items": [ { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0632 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0513 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0289 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0229 } ], "others": -0.0618, "total": -0.0856, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.063169 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.0513 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.028875 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.025118 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.022921 } ], "others_margin": -0.061725 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.930809497833252, "model_output": 6.9308, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0257 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0442, "total": 6.9308, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.009122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.025652 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.02128 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.015679 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014222 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.011404 } ], "others_margin": -0.044242 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9925, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8549, "goals_prevented": -0.085, "rating": 6.9308, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 27.4033, "accurate_pass": 20.8043, "total_long_balls": 11.4377, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8386, "touches": 40.2588, "clearances": 1.0364, "ball_recovery": 9.9405, "high_claims": 1.6765, "punches": 0.7718, "aerial_won": 0.8482, "sweeper_actions": 0.7197, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7197, "saves_inside_box": 1.7624, "possession_lost": 6.9208, "duels_won": 0.9254, "duels_lost": 0.2047, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2047, "fouls_drawn": 0.3729, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8668, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.916 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3200000, "quality_factor": 0.4399, "boost_factor": 0.9925, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.441, "goals_prevented": -0.0131, "rating": 6.9308, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.2327, "accurate_pass": 3.2134, "total_long_balls": 1.7666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7474, "touches": 6.2183, "clearances": 0.1601, "ball_recovery": 1.5354, "high_claims": 0.2589, "punches": 0.1192, "aerial_won": 0.131, "sweeper_actions": 0.1112, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1112, "saves_inside_box": 0.2722, "possession_lost": 1.069, "duels_won": 0.1429, "duels_lost": 0.0316, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0316, "fouls_drawn": 0.0576, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2231, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9217, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.4, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1545, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.441, "goals_prevented": -0.0131, "rating": 6.9308, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.2327, "accurate_pass": 3.2134, "total_long_balls": 1.7666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7474, "touches": 6.2183, "clearances": 0.1601, "ball_recovery": 1.5354, "high_claims": 0.2589, "punches": 0.1192, "aerial_won": 0.131, "sweeper_actions": 0.1112, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1112, "saves_inside_box": 0.2722, "possession_lost": 1.069, "duels_won": 0.1429, "duels_lost": 0.0316, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0316, "fouls_drawn": 0.0576, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2231, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9217, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.441, "goals_prevented": -0.0131, "rating": 6.9308, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.2327, "accurate_pass": 3.2134, "total_long_balls": 1.7666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7474, "touches": 6.2183, "clearances": 0.1601, "ball_recovery": 1.5354, "high_claims": 0.2589, "punches": 0.1192, "aerial_won": 0.131, "sweeper_actions": 0.1112, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1112, "saves_inside_box": 0.2722, "possession_lost": 1.069, "duels_won": 0.1429, "duels_lost": 0.0316, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0316, "fouls_drawn": 0.0576, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2231, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9217, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "saves": 0.441, "goals_prevented": -0.0131, "rating": 6.9308, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.2327, "accurate_pass": 3.2134, "total_long_balls": 1.7666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7474, "touches": 6.2183, "clearances": 0.1601, "ball_recovery": 1.5354, "high_claims": 0.2589, "punches": 0.1192, "aerial_won": 0.131, "sweeper_actions": 0.1112, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1112, "saves_inside_box": 0.2722, "possession_lost": 1.069, "duels_won": 0.1429, "duels_lost": 0.0316, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0316, "fouls_drawn": 0.0576, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2231, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9217, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 315, "fifa_rank": 411.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } } ] }, "Robin Le Normand": { "player_id": 787751, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 187, "market_value": 19100000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7615, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 1.4313, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416335, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0146, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 63, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 5.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083661, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Girona FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 44, "tackles": 7, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083634, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083551, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 49, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 32, "interceptions": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083476, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1861, "expected_assists": 0.008, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 33, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083242, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083306, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 701, "combined_rank_score": 338.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 100.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.475, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 576.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7615, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Robin Le Normand", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jamal Lewis", "ranking": 696 }, { "player_name": "Lasha Dvali", "ranking": 697 }, { "player_name": "Haris Hajdarević", "ranking": 698 }, { "player_name": "Adam Wharton", "ranking": 699 }, { "player_name": "Ji-ung Baek", "ranking": 700 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jonathan Villagra", "ranking": 702 }, { "player_name": "Bo-seob Kim", "ranking": 703 }, { "player_name": "Mateo Retegui", "ranking": 704 }, { "player_name": "Abdukodir Khusanov", "ranking": 705 }, { "player_name": "Bradley Barcola", "ranking": 706 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.768, "history_matches": 32, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 32, "data_confidence": 0.768, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.303593639163456, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.232, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0047, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (32 historical appearances) to 14.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.23); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5146, "tackles": 0.5461, "tackles_won": 0.3127, "clearances": 1.7864, "aerial_won": 0.9296, "total_shots": 0.1367, "rating": 6.7615, "minutes": 30.03, "total_pass": 18.8469, "accurate_pass": 16.2522, "duels_won": 1.8544, "total_long_balls": 1.9752, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7395, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6553, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.3805, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8718, "crosses_total": 0.1337, "crosses_accurate": 0.0561, "touches": 23.2993, "possession_lost": 2.9909, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9352, "aerial_lost": 0.364, "total_contest": 0.1486, "won_contest": 0.1486, "ball_recovery": 1.1033, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5712, "fouls_drawn": 0.1879, "blocks": 0.3533, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0115, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.8996, "total_progression": 24.1766, "progressive_carries": 0.4609, "key_pass": 0.0561, "shots_off_target": 0.1367 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1508, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1282, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.109, "rating": 5.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 49.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.6544, "aerialWon": 1.7116, "totalClearance_p90": 4.4325, "totalTackle": 1.3742, "totalPass": 32.6382 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.5146293044090271, "model_output": 0.5146, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4289 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": 0.0071, "total": 0.5146, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.693697 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.090574 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.030093 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.026152 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.022785 } ], "others_margin": 0.013784 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5461065769195557, "model_output": 0.5461, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7754 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.0523, "total": 0.5461, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.812643 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.031254 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.030673 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017027 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.016597 } ], "others_margin": -0.091343 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3127467632293701, "model_output": 0.3127, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4622 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0322, "total": 0.3127, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.778646 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.038163 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.033555 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.033522 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.023205 } ], "others_margin": -0.097858 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.7864304780960083, "model_output": 1.7864, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1137 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1225 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1109 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0968 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0607 } ], "others": 0.0578, "total": 1.7864, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.947856 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.087595 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.073207 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.059775 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.035777 } ], "others_margin": 0.032939 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.9295674562454224, "model_output": 0.9296, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7596 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1586 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0424 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0325 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0321 } ], "others": 0.1058, "total": 0.9296, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.797683 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.22699 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.052859 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.03871 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.038271 } ], "others_margin": 0.120806 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.13665597140789032, "model_output": 0.1367, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2086 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0594 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0085 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0076 } ], "others": -0.0607, "total": 0.1367, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.208581 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.059445 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.010358 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.008494 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.007562 } ], "others_margin": -0.060752 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7615065574646, "model_output": 6.7615, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": 0.0116, "total": 6.7615, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.019485 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.012583 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009912 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009743 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.008749 } ], "others_margin": 0.01168 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0047, quality 0.622)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.517, "tackles": 0.5487, "tackles_won": 0.3142, "clearances": 1.7948, "aerial_won": 0.9339, "total_shots": 0.1373, "rating": 6.7615, "minutes": 30.03, "total_pass": 18.9355, "accurate_pass": 16.3286, "duels_won": 1.8631, "total_long_balls": 1.9845, "accurate_long_balls": 0.743, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7148, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.434, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2207, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8947, "crosses_total": 0.1343, "crosses_accurate": 0.0564, "touches": 23.4088, "possession_lost": 3.005, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9396, "aerial_lost": 0.3657, "total_contest": 0.1493, "won_contest": 0.1493, "ball_recovery": 1.1085, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5739, "fouls_drawn": 0.1888, "blocks": 0.355, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9367, "total_progression": 24.2902, "progressive_carries": 0.4631, "key_pass": 0.0564, "shots_off_target": 0.1373 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19100000, "quality_factor": 0.6221, "boost_factor": 1.0047, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0105)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5194, "tackles": 0.5487, "tackles_won": 0.3148, "clearances": 1.7948, "aerial_won": 0.9339, "total_shots": 0.1359, "rating": 6.7615, "minutes": 30.03, "total_pass": 18.9355, "accurate_pass": 16.3286, "duels_won": 1.8631, "total_long_balls": 1.9845, "accurate_long_balls": 0.743, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7148, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.434, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2207, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8947, "crosses_total": 0.1329, "crosses_accurate": 0.0564, "touches": 23.4088, "possession_lost": 3.005, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9396, "aerial_lost": 0.3657, "total_contest": 0.1493, "won_contest": 0.1493, "ball_recovery": 1.1085, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5718, "fouls_drawn": 0.1888, "blocks": 0.355, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9367, "total_progression": 24.2902, "progressive_carries": 0.4631, "key_pass": 0.0564, "shots_off_target": 0.1373 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0105, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3337, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 30.0 to 14.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2474, "tackles": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1499, "clearances": 0.8549, "aerial_won": 0.4448, "total_shots": 0.0654, "rating": 6.7615, "minutes": 14.3, "total_pass": 9.0192, "accurate_pass": 7.7775, "duels_won": 0.8874, "total_long_balls": 0.9452, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3539, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0562, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4461, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3314, "crosses_total": 0.0633, "crosses_accurate": 0.0269, "touches": 11.1498, "possession_lost": 1.4313, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4475, "aerial_lost": 0.3657, "total_contest": 0.0711, "won_contest": 0.0711, "ball_recovery": 0.528, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2724, "fouls_drawn": 0.0899, "blocks": 0.1691, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7803, "total_progression": 11.5697, "progressive_carries": 0.2206, "key_pass": 0.0269, "shots_off_target": 0.0654, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.3 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.3, "projection_minutes": 30.03, "minutes_scale": 0.4763, "appearance_probability": 0.232 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2474, "tackles": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1499, "clearances": 0.8549, "aerial_won": 0.4448, "total_shots": 0.0654, "rating": 6.7615, "minutes": 14.3, "total_pass": 9.0192, "accurate_pass": 7.7775, "duels_won": 0.8874, "total_long_balls": 0.9452, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3539, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0562, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4461, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3314, "crosses_total": 0.0633, "crosses_accurate": 0.0269, "touches": 11.1498, "possession_lost": 1.4313, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4475, "aerial_lost": 0.3657, "total_contest": 0.0711, "won_contest": 0.0711, "ball_recovery": 0.528, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2724, "fouls_drawn": 0.0899, "blocks": 0.1691, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7803, "total_progression": 11.5697, "progressive_carries": 0.2206, "key_pass": 0.0269, "shots_off_target": 0.0654, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.3 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2474, "tackles": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1499, "clearances": 0.8549, "aerial_won": 0.4448, "total_shots": 0.0654, "rating": 6.7615, "minutes": 14.3, "total_pass": 9.0192, "accurate_pass": 7.7775, "duels_won": 0.8874, "total_long_balls": 0.9452, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3539, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0562, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4461, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3314, "crosses_total": 0.0633, "crosses_accurate": 0.0269, "touches": 11.1498, "possession_lost": 1.4313, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4475, "aerial_lost": 0.3657, "total_contest": 0.0711, "won_contest": 0.0711, "ball_recovery": 0.528, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2724, "fouls_drawn": 0.0899, "blocks": 0.1691, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7803, "total_progression": 11.5697, "progressive_carries": 0.2206, "key_pass": 0.0269, "shots_off_target": 0.0654, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.232, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2474, "tackles": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1499, "clearances": 0.8549, "aerial_won": 0.4448, "total_shots": 0.0654, "rating": 6.7615, "minutes": 14.3, "total_pass": 9.0192, "accurate_pass": 7.7775, "duels_won": 0.8874, "total_long_balls": 0.9452, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3539, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0562, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4461, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.963, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3314, "crosses_total": 0.0633, "crosses_accurate": 0.0269, "touches": 11.1498, "possession_lost": 1.4313, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4475, "aerial_lost": 0.3657, "total_contest": 0.0711, "won_contest": 0.0711, "ball_recovery": 0.528, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2724, "fouls_drawn": 0.0899, "blocks": 0.1691, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7803, "total_progression": 11.5697, "progressive_carries": 0.2206, "key_pass": 0.0269, "shots_off_target": 0.0654, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 701, "fifa_rank": 576.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } } ] }, "Nahuel Molina": { "player_id": 831799, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 175, "market_value": 14600000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7371, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 2.54, "dispossessed": 0.2506, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0657, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0909, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0016, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.323, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.12, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083551, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083476, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0729, "expected_assists": 0.2571, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083242, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083306, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081810, "match_date": "2026-04-04", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0285, "expected_assists": 0.0849, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081807, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0249, "expected_assists": 0.1464, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083612, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2919, "expected_assists": 0.1085, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 37, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083602, "match_date": "2026-03-07", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0094, "expected_assists": 0.0784, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 40, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081795, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0429, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 53, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083561, "match_date": "2026-02-21", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3126, "combined_rank_score": 1088.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 621.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.768, "sofascore_appearances": 26.0, "fifa_rank": 1555.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7371, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nahuel Molina", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Emile Smith Rowe", "ranking": 3121 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Giménez", "ranking": 3122 }, { "player_name": "Mykola Shaparenko", "ranking": 3123 }, { "player_name": "Kostas Tsimikas", "ranking": 3124 }, { "player_name": "Kepa", "ranking": 3125 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Václav Jemelka", "ranking": 3127 }, { "player_name": "Diego Conde", "ranking": 3128 }, { "player_name": "Lawrence Shankland", "ranking": 3129 }, { "player_name": "Cameron Carter-Vickers", "ranking": 3130 }, { "player_name": "Patrick Wimmer", "ranking": 3131 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 26, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 26, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.116228879425961, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.32346494906481643, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0034, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (26 historical appearances) to 14.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.32)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2704, "tackles": 0.7843, "tackles_won": 0.5766, "clearances": 0.824, "aerial_won": 0.2582, "total_shots": 0.3556, "rating": 6.7371, "minutes": 22.6, "total_pass": 11.3592, "accurate_pass": 9.4876, "duels_won": 1.7785, "total_long_balls": 0.669, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4351, "total_own_half_passes": 3.62, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0455, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4422, "crosses_total": 0.9651, "crosses_accurate": 0.1776, "touches": 17.9918, "possession_lost": 4.0527, "dispossessed": 0.2498, "duels_lost": 1.8629, "aerial_lost": 0.5937, "total_contest": 0.4445, "won_contest": 0.1706, "ball_recovery": 1.5053, "challenges_lost": 0.2772, "fouls": 0.5078, "fouls_drawn": 0.2281, "blocks": 0.1648, "goals": 0.1048, "goal_rate": 0.1048, "assists": 0.145, "assist_rate": 0.145, "expected_goals": 0.0026, "expected_assists": 0.0259, "shots_on_target": 0.1048, "big_chances_created": 0.145, "xgot": 0.0189, "ball_carries": 5.2155, "total_progression": 30.7621, "progressive_carries": 0.4215, "key_pass": 0.5091, "shots_off_target": 0.2508 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1522, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1294, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.11, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0935, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-04", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0795, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0675, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0574, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-07", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0488, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-28", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0415, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-21", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0353, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 1.2966, "aerialWon": 0.3397, "totalClearance_p90": 2.1148, "totalTackle": 1.9727, "totalPass": 27.3878 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.2703659236431122, "model_output": 0.2704, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4967 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0447 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0078 } ], "others": -0.0163, "total": 0.2704, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.866201 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.132331 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.041325 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.02868 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.026735 } ], "others_margin": -0.058708 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.7843024134635925, "model_output": 0.7843, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7671 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0284 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.025 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0165 } ], "others": 0.0712, "total": 0.7843, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.799263 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.044271 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.037498 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.023883 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.023461 } ], "others_margin": 0.0951 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.5766459107398987, "model_output": 0.5766, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.432 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.015 } ], "others": 0.0774, "total": 0.5766, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.704591 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.05535 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.042928 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.038317 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.030479 } ], "others_margin": 0.144403 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.8240094780921936, "model_output": 0.824, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0512 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2629 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0884 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.075 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0538 } ], "others": -0.0961, "total": 0.824, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.902127 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.207944 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.080957 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.074196 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.056783 } ], "others_margin": -0.11035 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.25820523500442505, "model_output": 0.2582, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7911 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2139 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0312 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0366, "total": 0.2582, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.849569 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.449355 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.104408 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.096375 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.045057 } ], "others_margin": -0.132789 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.35561543703079224, "model_output": 0.3556, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2574 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1686 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0142 } ], "others": -0.013, "total": 0.3556, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.257407 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.168585 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.016583 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.016116 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.01425 } ], "others_margin": -0.012911 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.737069606781006, "model_output": 6.7371, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0304 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0562, "total": 6.7371, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.030415 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.016168 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.014995 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012002 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011375 } ], "others_margin": -0.056273 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0034, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2713, "tackles": 0.787, "tackles_won": 0.5786, "clearances": 0.8268, "aerial_won": 0.2591, "total_shots": 0.3569, "rating": 6.7371, "minutes": 22.6, "total_pass": 11.3978, "accurate_pass": 9.5199, "duels_won": 1.7845, "total_long_balls": 0.6713, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4366, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6323, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0559, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7656, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4641, "crosses_total": 0.9684, "crosses_accurate": 0.1782, "touches": 18.053, "possession_lost": 4.0665, "dispossessed": 0.2506, "duels_lost": 1.8692, "aerial_lost": 0.5957, "total_contest": 0.446, "won_contest": 0.1712, "ball_recovery": 1.5104, "challenges_lost": 0.2781, "fouls": 0.5095, "fouls_drawn": 0.2289, "blocks": 0.1654, "goals": 0.1052, "goal_rate": 0.1052, "assists": 0.1455, "assist_rate": 0.1455, "expected_goals": 0.0026, "expected_assists": 0.026, "shots_on_target": 0.1052, "big_chances_created": 0.1455, "xgot": 0.019, "ball_carries": 5.2332, "total_progression": 30.8667, "progressive_carries": 0.4229, "key_pass": 0.5108, "shots_off_target": 0.2517 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14600000, "quality_factor": 0.5748, "boost_factor": 1.0034, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.6 to 14.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.32)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1695, "tackles": 0.4916, "tackles_won": 0.3614, "clearances": 0.5164, "aerial_won": 0.1618, "total_shots": 0.2229, "rating": 6.7371, "minutes": 14.12, "total_pass": 7.1192, "accurate_pass": 5.9462, "duels_won": 1.1146, "total_long_balls": 0.4193, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2727, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9088, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0376, "crosses_total": 0.6049, "crosses_accurate": 0.1113, "touches": 11.2761, "possession_lost": 2.54, "dispossessed": 0.2506, "duels_lost": 1.1675, "aerial_lost": 0.5957, "total_contest": 0.2786, "won_contest": 0.1069, "ball_recovery": 0.9434, "challenges_lost": 0.2781, "fouls": 0.3182, "fouls_drawn": 0.143, "blocks": 0.1033, "goals": 0.0657, "goal_rate": 0.0657, "assists": 0.0909, "assist_rate": 0.0909, "expected_goals": 0.0016, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "shots_on_target": 0.0657, "big_chances_created": 0.0909, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 3.2687, "total_progression": 19.2797, "progressive_carries": 0.2641, "key_pass": 0.3191, "shots_off_target": 0.1572, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.323, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.12 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.12, "projection_minutes": 22.6, "minutes_scale": 0.6246, "appearance_probability": 0.323 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1695, "tackles": 0.4916, "tackles_won": 0.3614, "clearances": 0.5164, "aerial_won": 0.1618, "total_shots": 0.2229, "rating": 6.7371, "minutes": 14.12, "total_pass": 7.1192, "accurate_pass": 5.9462, "duels_won": 1.1146, "total_long_balls": 0.4193, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2727, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9088, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0376, "crosses_total": 0.6049, "crosses_accurate": 0.1113, "touches": 11.2761, "possession_lost": 2.54, "dispossessed": 0.2506, "duels_lost": 1.1675, "aerial_lost": 0.5957, "total_contest": 0.2786, "won_contest": 0.1069, "ball_recovery": 0.9434, "challenges_lost": 0.2781, "fouls": 0.3182, "fouls_drawn": 0.143, "blocks": 0.1033, "goals": 0.0657, "goal_rate": 0.0657, "assists": 0.0909, "assist_rate": 0.0909, "expected_goals": 0.0016, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "shots_on_target": 0.0657, "big_chances_created": 0.0909, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 3.2687, "total_progression": 19.2797, "progressive_carries": 0.2641, "key_pass": 0.3191, "shots_off_target": 0.1572, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.323, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.12 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1695, "tackles": 0.4916, "tackles_won": 0.3614, "clearances": 0.5164, "aerial_won": 0.1618, "total_shots": 0.2229, "rating": 6.7371, "minutes": 14.12, "total_pass": 7.1192, "accurate_pass": 5.9462, "duels_won": 1.1146, "total_long_balls": 0.4193, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2727, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9088, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0376, "crosses_total": 0.6049, "crosses_accurate": 0.1113, "touches": 11.2761, "possession_lost": 2.54, "dispossessed": 0.2506, "duels_lost": 1.1675, "aerial_lost": 0.5957, "total_contest": 0.2786, "won_contest": 0.1069, "ball_recovery": 0.9434, "challenges_lost": 0.2781, "fouls": 0.3182, "fouls_drawn": 0.143, "blocks": 0.1033, "goal_rate": 0.0657, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0909, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0016, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "shots_on_target": 0.0657, "big_chances_created": 0.0909, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 3.2687, "total_progression": 19.2797, "progressive_carries": 0.2641, "key_pass": 0.3191, "shots_off_target": 0.1572, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.323, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.12, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.323, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1695, "tackles": 0.4916, "tackles_won": 0.3614, "clearances": 0.5164, "aerial_won": 0.1618, "total_shots": 0.2229, "rating": 6.7371, "minutes": 14.12, "total_pass": 7.1192, "accurate_pass": 5.9462, "duels_won": 1.1146, "total_long_balls": 0.4193, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2727, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9088, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0376, "crosses_total": 0.6049, "crosses_accurate": 0.1113, "touches": 11.2761, "possession_lost": 2.54, "dispossessed": 0.2506, "duels_lost": 1.1675, "aerial_lost": 0.5957, "total_contest": 0.2786, "won_contest": 0.1069, "ball_recovery": 0.9434, "challenges_lost": 0.2781, "fouls": 0.3182, "fouls_drawn": 0.143, "blocks": 0.1033, "goal_rate": 0.0657, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0909, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0016, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "shots_on_target": 0.0657, "big_chances_created": 0.0909, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 3.2687, "total_progression": 19.2797, "progressive_carries": 0.2641, "key_pass": 0.3191, "shots_off_target": 0.1572, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.323, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.12, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3126, "fifa_rank": 1555.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "Pablo Barrios": { "player_id": 1142588, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 181, "market_value": 60000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.107, "assist_rate": 0.0649, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0446, "goal_rate": 0.0607, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 7.0465, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 33, "possession_lost": 4.6941, "dispossessed": 0.7319, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 32, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.469, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.38, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0205, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0476, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0186, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0391, "expected_assists": 0.154, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 69, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.111, "expected_assists": 0.0406, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 80, "accurate_pass": 71, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2205, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1045, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 51, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083242, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 36, "interceptions": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083306, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.085, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083241, "match_date": "2026-01-31", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 50, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083107, "match_date": "2026-01-25", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0788, "expected_assists": 0.1905, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 61, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083233, "match_date": "2026-01-18", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1015, "expected_assists": 0.2093, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 5, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083201, "match_date": "2026-01-04", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 21, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 246, "combined_rank_score": 183.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 52.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 315.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0465, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pablo Barrios", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Léo Pereira", "ranking": 241 }, { "player_name": "Andrei Cojuhar", "ranking": 242 }, { "player_name": "Willian Pacho", "ranking": 243 }, { "player_name": "Alex Baena", "ranking": 244 }, { "player_name": "Denzel Dumfries", "ranking": 245 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Joaquín Moya", "ranking": 247 }, { "player_name": "Leonard Pllana", "ranking": 248 }, { "player_name": "Eldor Adhamov", "ranking": 249 }, { "player_name": "Arda Güler", "ranking": 250 }, { "player_name": "David Raum", "ranking": 251 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.773, "history_matches": 27, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 27, "data_confidence": 0.773, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 24.38, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.469, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0163, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 25.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.4347826086956522, "prior_reliability": 0.1533 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (27 historical appearances) to 24.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.47); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 25.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6944, "expected_assists": 0.0665, "assists": 0.0677, "assist_rate": 0.0677, "expected_goals": 0.0338, "goals": 0.0652, "goal_rate": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.1599, "total_shots": 0.4134, "rating": 7.0465, "minutes": 26.2, "total_pass": 27.014, "accurate_pass": 24.7611, "duels_won": 3.1056, "total_long_balls": 1.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8789, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7839, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2774, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2301, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4838, "crosses_total": 0.892, "crosses_accurate": 0.5065, "touches": 34.7093, "possession_lost": 4.9636, "dispossessed": 0.7202, "duels_lost": 2.1713, "aerial_won": 0.4595, "aerial_lost": 0.6122, "interceptions": 0.4194, "tackles_won": 0.5806, "tackles": 0.5806, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6778, "won_contest": 1.2924, "challenges_lost": 0.4535, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7733, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2267, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1254, "total_progression": 33.6079, "progressive_carries": 1.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2535 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1519, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1291, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1097, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0933, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0793, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0674, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-31", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 50.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0573, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-25", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0487, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-18", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0414, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-04", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0352, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.9094, "creative_index": 0.5669, "expectedGoals": 0.0481, "expectedAssists": 0.1053, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3702 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6944372057914734, "model_output": 0.6944, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3946 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0385 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0381 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0372 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0324 } ], "others": 0.1214, "total": 0.6944, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.589339 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.075369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.069444 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.063426 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.055039 } ], "others_margin": 0.192302 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06645315885543823, "model_output": 0.0665, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0031 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0025 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0023 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": 0.0023 } ], "others": 0.0068, "total": 0.0665, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.550439 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.060397 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.046672 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.04006 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.039875 } ], "others_margin": 0.108225 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.06772889196872711, "model_output": 0.0677, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0055 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0052 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0039 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0036 } ], "others": -0.0024, "total": 0.0677, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.313483 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.084408 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.079801 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.060987 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.053009 } ], "others_margin": -0.034957 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03378985449671745, "model_output": 0.0338, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.037 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0018 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": -0.004, "total": 0.0338, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.496897 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.241108 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.087315 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.044541 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.043356 } ], "others_margin": -0.114459 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.06515166908502579, "model_output": 0.0652, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0043 } ], "others": 0.0017, "total": 0.0652, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.228464 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.133583 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.130654 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.127177 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.065236 } ], "others_margin": 0.026137 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.15989968180656433, "model_output": 0.1599, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.122 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0051 } ], "others": -0.007, "total": 0.1599, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.472353 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.075837 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.049426 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.035212 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.030028 } ], "others_margin": -0.043314 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.41339579224586487, "model_output": 0.4134, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3951 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.067 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0924, "total": 0.4134, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.395068 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.067016 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": -0.020169 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.019897 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.017476 } ], "others_margin": -0.092395 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.046478748321533, "model_output": 7.0465, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1149 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0995 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0365 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0266 } ], "others": 0.0398, "total": 7.0465, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.114901 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.09949 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.079335 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.036453 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.026568 } ], "others_margin": 0.039841 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0163, quality 0.853)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7058, "expected_assists": 0.0675, "assists": 0.0688, "assist_rate": 0.0688, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "goals": 0.0662, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "shots_on_target": 0.1625, "total_shots": 0.4201, "rating": 7.0465, "minutes": 26.2, "total_pass": 27.4543, "accurate_pass": 25.1647, "duels_won": 3.1562, "total_long_balls": 1.3196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8932, "total_own_half_passes": 9.9434, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.4286, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.511, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7362, "crosses_total": 0.9065, "crosses_accurate": 0.5148, "touches": 35.2751, "possession_lost": 5.0445, "dispossessed": 0.7319, "duels_lost": 2.2067, "aerial_won": 0.467, "aerial_lost": 0.6222, "interceptions": 0.4262, "tackles_won": 0.5901, "tackles": 0.5901, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.7051, "won_contest": 1.3135, "challenges_lost": 0.4609, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7859, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2304, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.2741, "total_progression": 34.1557, "progressive_carries": 1.0163, "shots_off_target": 0.2576 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 60000000, "quality_factor": 0.8526, "boost_factor": 1.0163, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0156)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7058, "expected_assists": 0.0675, "assists": 0.0697, "assist_rate": 0.0697, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "goals": 0.0652, "goal_rate": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.162, "total_shots": 0.4156, "rating": 7.0465, "minutes": 26.2, "total_pass": 27.4543, "accurate_pass": 25.1647, "duels_won": 3.1562, "total_long_balls": 1.3196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8932, "total_own_half_passes": 9.9434, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.4286, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.511, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7362, "crosses_total": 0.8944, "crosses_accurate": 0.5148, "touches": 35.2751, "possession_lost": 5.0445, "dispossessed": 0.7319, "duels_lost": 2.2067, "aerial_won": 0.467, "aerial_lost": 0.6222, "interceptions": 0.4255, "tackles_won": 0.5849, "tackles": 0.5901, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.7051, "won_contest": 1.3135, "challenges_lost": 0.4609, "fouls": 0.0039, "fouls_drawn": 0.7835, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2304, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.2741, "total_progression": 34.1557, "progressive_carries": 1.0163, "shots_off_target": 0.2576 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0156, "history_matches": 27, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2911, "prior_reliability": 0.1533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.9065, "after": 0.8944 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.5901, "after": 0.5849 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 26.2 to 24.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.47)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6568, "expected_assists": 0.0628, "assists": 0.0649, "assist_rate": 0.0649, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "goals": 0.0607, "goal_rate": 0.0607, "shots_on_target": 0.1507, "total_shots": 0.3905, "rating": 7.0465, "minutes": 24.38, "total_pass": 25.5472, "accurate_pass": 23.4166, "duels_won": 2.937, "total_long_balls": 1.2279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8312, "total_own_half_passes": 9.2527, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7736, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6431, "crosses_total": 0.8323, "crosses_accurate": 0.479, "touches": 32.8247, "possession_lost": 4.6941, "dispossessed": 0.7319, "duels_lost": 2.0534, "aerial_won": 0.4346, "aerial_lost": 0.6222, "interceptions": 0.3959, "tackles_won": 0.5443, "tackles": 0.5491, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.5867, "won_contest": 1.2223, "challenges_lost": 0.4609, "fouls": 0.0036, "fouls_drawn": 0.7291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2144, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.6299, "total_progression": 31.7831, "progressive_carries": 0.9457, "shots_off_target": 0.2397, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.469, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.38 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 24.38, "projection_minutes": 26.2, "minutes_scale": 0.9305, "appearance_probability": 0.469 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6568, "expected_assists": 0.0628, "assists": 0.0649, "assist_rate": 0.0649, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "goals": 0.0607, "goal_rate": 0.0607, "shots_on_target": 0.1507, "total_shots": 0.3905, "rating": 7.0465, "minutes": 24.38, "total_pass": 25.5472, "accurate_pass": 23.4166, "duels_won": 2.937, "total_long_balls": 1.2279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8312, "total_own_half_passes": 9.2527, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7736, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6431, "crosses_total": 0.8323, "crosses_accurate": 0.479, "touches": 32.8247, "possession_lost": 4.6941, "dispossessed": 0.7319, "duels_lost": 2.0534, "aerial_won": 0.4346, "aerial_lost": 0.6222, "interceptions": 0.3959, "tackles_won": 0.5443, "tackles": 0.5491, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.5867, "won_contest": 1.2223, "challenges_lost": 0.4609, "fouls": 0.0036, "fouls_drawn": 0.7291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2144, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.6299, "total_progression": 31.7831, "progressive_carries": 0.9457, "shots_off_target": 0.2397, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.469, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.38 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.71 (squad xG sum 1.9407, xG scale 1.3980, xA scale 1.7031, team xA 1.76 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6568, "expected_assists": 0.107, "assist_rate": 0.0649, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0446, "goal_rate": 0.0607, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1507, "total_shots": 0.3905, "rating": 7.0465, "minutes": 24.38, "total_pass": 25.5472, "accurate_pass": 23.4166, "duels_won": 2.937, "total_long_balls": 1.2279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8312, "total_own_half_passes": 9.2527, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7736, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6431, "crosses_total": 0.8323, "crosses_accurate": 0.479, "touches": 32.8247, "possession_lost": 4.6941, "dispossessed": 0.7319, "duels_lost": 2.0534, "aerial_won": 0.4346, "aerial_lost": 0.6222, "interceptions": 0.3959, "tackles_won": 0.5443, "tackles": 0.5491, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.5867, "won_contest": 1.2223, "challenges_lost": 0.4609, "fouls": 0.0036, "fouls_drawn": 0.7291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2144, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.6299, "total_progression": 31.7831, "progressive_carries": 0.9457, "shots_off_target": 0.2397, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.469, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.38, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0186 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.713, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9407, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0355, "team_expected_assists": 1.7635, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.398, "xa_scale": 1.7031, "opponent_lambda": 1.163, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.469 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0319, "after": 0.0446 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0628, "after": 0.107 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6568, "expected_assists": 0.107, "assist_rate": 0.0649, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0446, "goal_rate": 0.0607, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1507, "total_shots": 0.3905, "rating": 7.0465, "minutes": 24.38, "total_pass": 25.5472, "accurate_pass": 23.4166, "duels_won": 2.937, "total_long_balls": 1.2279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8312, "total_own_half_passes": 9.2527, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7736, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6431, "crosses_total": 0.8323, "crosses_accurate": 0.479, "touches": 32.8247, "possession_lost": 4.6941, "dispossessed": 0.7319, "duels_lost": 2.0534, "aerial_won": 0.4346, "aerial_lost": 0.6222, "interceptions": 0.3959, "tackles_won": 0.5443, "tackles": 0.5491, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.5867, "won_contest": 1.2223, "challenges_lost": 0.4609, "fouls": 0.0036, "fouls_drawn": 0.7291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2144, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.6299, "total_progression": 31.7831, "progressive_carries": 0.9457, "shots_off_target": 0.2397, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.469, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.38, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0186, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 246, "fifa_rank": 315.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6568, "expected_assists": 0.107, "assist_rate": 0.0649, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0446, "goal_rate": 0.0607, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1507, "total_shots": 0.3905, "rating": 7.0465, "minutes": 24.38, "total_pass": 25.5472, "accurate_pass": 23.4166, "duels_won": 2.937, "total_long_balls": 1.2279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8312, "total_own_half_passes": 9.2527, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7736, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6431, "crosses_total": 0.8323, "crosses_accurate": 0.479, "touches": 32.8247, "possession_lost": 4.6941, "dispossessed": 0.7319, "duels_lost": 2.0534, "aerial_won": 0.4346, "aerial_lost": 0.6222, "interceptions": 0.3959, "tackles_won": 0.5443, "tackles": 0.5491, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.5867, "won_contest": 1.2223, "challenges_lost": 0.4609, "fouls": 0.0036, "fouls_drawn": 0.7291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2144, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.6299, "total_progression": 31.7831, "progressive_carries": 0.9457, "shots_off_target": 0.2397, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.469, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.38, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0205, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0186, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0205, "scorer_weight": 0.0261, "squad_weight_total": 2.945, "weight_share": 0.0089, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.469, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jonathan David", "weight": 0.8639, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8639, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5239 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.5239, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5239, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4068 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6568, "expected_assists": 0.107, "assist_rate": 0.0649, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0446, "goal_rate": 0.0607, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1507, "total_shots": 0.3905, "rating": 7.0465, "minutes": 24.38, "total_pass": 25.5472, "accurate_pass": 23.4166, "duels_won": 2.937, "total_long_balls": 1.2279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8312, "total_own_half_passes": 9.2527, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7736, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6431, "crosses_total": 0.8323, "crosses_accurate": 0.479, "touches": 32.8247, "possession_lost": 4.6941, "dispossessed": 0.7319, "duels_lost": 2.0534, "aerial_won": 0.4346, "aerial_lost": 0.6222, "interceptions": 0.3959, "tackles_won": 0.5443, "tackles": 0.5491, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.5867, "won_contest": 1.2223, "challenges_lost": 0.4609, "fouls": 0.0036, "fouls_drawn": 0.7291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2144, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.6299, "total_progression": 31.7831, "progressive_carries": 0.9457, "shots_off_target": 0.2397, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.469, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.38, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0205, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0476, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0186, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0476, "provider_weight": 0.0511, "squad_weight_total": 1.6801, "weight_share": 0.0304, "creation_factor": 1.0186, "appearance_weight": 0.469, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.2713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2713, "runner_up": "Marcos Llorente", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1959 } ] } } ] }, "Morten Hjulmand": { "player_id": 859917, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 185, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0272, "goal_rate": 0.0558, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7178, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 0.8476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.466, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.71, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0399, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416335, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1497, "expected_assists": 0.0488, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 48, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1353, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 46, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0189, "expected_assists": 0.0565, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 64, "key_pass": 5, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 404, "combined_rank_score": 257.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 204.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1875, "sofascore_appearances": 8.0, "fifa_rank": 310.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7178, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Morten Hjulmand", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Min Ji-Hoon", "ranking": 399 }, { "player_name": "Avazbek Ulmasaliyev", "ranking": 400 }, { "player_name": "Jun-yeong Jang", "ranking": 401 }, { "player_name": "Moise Kean", "ranking": 402 }, { "player_name": "Khurshidbek Mukhtorov", "ranking": 403 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Seung-gun Kim", "ranking": 405 }, { "player_name": "Claudio Aquino", "ranking": 406 }, { "player_name": "Sherzod Nasrullaev", "ranking": 407 }, { "player_name": "Jun-sang Lee", "ranking": 408 }, { "player_name": "Boburbek Yuldashov", "ranking": 409 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.709, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.709, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 17.71, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.466, "market_value_adjustment": 1.039, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 13.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.14 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (7 historical appearances) to 17.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.47); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 13.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3372, "expected_assists": 0.0229, "assists": 0.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0323, "expected_goals": 0.0196, "goals": 0.0418, "goal_rate": 0.0418, "shots_on_target": 0.0745, "total_shots": 0.2832, "rating": 6.7178, "minutes": 13.27, "total_pass": 7.8902, "accurate_pass": 7.2789, "duels_won": 0.5617, "total_long_balls": 0.3304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3304, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3372, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0563, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.553, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2226, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.4519, "possession_lost": 0.6113, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2809, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2809, "tackles": 0.2809, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2809, "fouls_drawn": 0.2809, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8921, "total_progression": 2.7284, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2087 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.417, "creative_index": 0.4194, "expectedGoals": 0.0257, "expectedAssists": 0.0445, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.33715736865997314, "model_output": 0.3372, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3915 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0551 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0166 } ], "others": -0.0483, "total": 0.3372, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.582936 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.118069 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.046554 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.042594 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.042098 } ], "others_margin": -0.13414 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.0228632390499115, "model_output": 0.0229, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0392 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0052 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0022 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": -0.0051, "total": 0.0229, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.609648 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.227536 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.151132 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.071611 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.058227 } ], "others_margin": -0.204024 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.03231456130743027, "model_output": 0.0323, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0067 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0043 } ], "others": -0.0096, "total": 0.0323, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.314074 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.231487 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.14592 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.12443 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.107136 } ], "others_margin": -0.261056 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.019590487703680992, "model_output": 0.0196, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.041 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0021 } ], "others": -0.007, "total": 0.0196, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.569086 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.308384 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.176429 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.13281 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.075997 } ], "others_margin": -0.310089 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.041793689131736755, "model_output": 0.0418, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0281 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0042 } ], "others": -0.0068, "total": 0.0418, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.33922 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.190855 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.148205 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.108996 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.091045 } ], "others_margin": -0.152365 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.07445785403251648, "model_output": 0.0745, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1243 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0515 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0071 } ], "others": -0.0251, "total": 0.0745, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.48378 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.298273 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.173766 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.155337 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.06861 } ], "others_margin": -0.290716 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2831978499889374, "model_output": 0.2832, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2993 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.178 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0402 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0325 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0276 } ], "others": -0.1297, "total": 0.2832, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.299302 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.178047 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.040183 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.032465 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.027576 } ], "others_margin": -0.129693 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.717844009399414, "model_output": 6.7178, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0887 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.007 } ], "others": -0.008, "total": 6.7178, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.088674 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019778 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017193 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.00957 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.006954 } ], "others_margin": -0.007998 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0390, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3503, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "assists": 0.0336, "assist_rate": 0.0336, "expected_goals": 0.0204, "goals": 0.0434, "goal_rate": 0.0434, "shots_on_target": 0.0774, "total_shots": 0.2942, "rating": 6.7178, "minutes": 13.27, "total_pass": 8.1979, "accurate_pass": 7.5628, "duels_won": 0.5836, "total_long_balls": 0.3433, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3433, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5064, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2145, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3483, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.7815, "possession_lost": 0.6351, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2919, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2919, "tackles": 0.2919, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2919, "fouls_drawn": 0.2919, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.9269, "total_progression": 2.8348, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2168 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.039, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0379)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3503, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "assists": 0.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0323, "expected_goals": 0.0204, "goals": 0.0418, "goal_rate": 0.0418, "shots_on_target": 0.0745, "total_shots": 0.2857, "rating": 6.7178, "minutes": 13.27, "total_pass": 8.1979, "accurate_pass": 7.5628, "duels_won": 0.5836, "total_long_balls": 0.3433, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3433, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5064, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2145, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3483, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.7815, "possession_lost": 0.6351, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2919, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.008, "tackles_won": 0.2915, "tackles": 0.2919, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2888, "fouls_drawn": 0.2915, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.9269, "total_progression": 2.8348, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2168 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0379, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1474, "prior_reliability": 0.14, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.2942, "after": 0.2857 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.008 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 13.3 to 17.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.47)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4675, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "assists": 0.0431, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "expected_goals": 0.0272, "goals": 0.0558, "goal_rate": 0.0558, "shots_on_target": 0.0994, "total_shots": 0.3888, "rating": 6.7178, "minutes": 17.71, "total_pass": 10.9408, "accurate_pass": 10.0932, "duels_won": 0.7789, "total_long_balls": 0.4582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4582, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6246, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4686, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.7197, "possession_lost": 0.8476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3896, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0107, "tackles_won": 0.389, "tackles": 0.3896, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3854, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.237, "total_progression": 3.7833, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2893, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.466, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.71 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 17.71, "projection_minutes": 13.27, "minutes_scale": 1.3346, "appearance_probability": 0.466 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4675, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "assists": 0.0431, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "expected_goals": 0.0272, "goals": 0.0558, "goal_rate": 0.0558, "shots_on_target": 0.0994, "total_shots": 0.3888, "rating": 6.7178, "minutes": 17.71, "total_pass": 10.9408, "accurate_pass": 10.0932, "duels_won": 0.7789, "total_long_balls": 0.4582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4582, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6246, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4686, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.7197, "possession_lost": 0.8476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3896, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0107, "tackles_won": 0.389, "tackles": 0.3896, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3854, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.237, "total_progression": 3.7833, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2893, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.466, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.71 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4675, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0272, "goal_rate": 0.0558, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0994, "total_shots": 0.3888, "rating": 6.7178, "minutes": 17.71, "total_pass": 10.9408, "accurate_pass": 10.0932, "duels_won": 0.7789, "total_long_balls": 0.4582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4582, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6246, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4686, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.7197, "possession_lost": 0.8476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3896, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0107, "tackles_won": 0.389, "tackles": 0.3896, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3854, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.237, "total_progression": 3.7833, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2893, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.466, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.71, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.466, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4675, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0272, "goal_rate": 0.0558, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0994, "total_shots": 0.3888, "rating": 6.7178, "minutes": 17.71, "total_pass": 10.9408, "accurate_pass": 10.0932, "duels_won": 0.7789, "total_long_balls": 0.4582, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4582, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0142, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6246, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4686, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.7197, "possession_lost": 0.8476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3896, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0107, "tackles_won": 0.389, "tackles": 0.3896, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3854, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.237, "total_progression": 3.7833, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2893, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.466, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.71, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 404, "fifa_rank": 310.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } } ] }, "Julián Alvarez": { "player_id": 944656, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 170, "market_value": 116000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1195, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1042, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 4.5366, "dispossessed": 0.8322, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1868, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0852, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0748, "finishing_factor": 1.0893, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3341, "expected_assists": 0.0842, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2286, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0464, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14081807, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2591, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083612, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2889, "expected_assists": 0.1596, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083602, "match_date": "2026-03-07", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 37, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.4966, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081795, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2713, "expected_assists": 0.0973, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083561, "match_date": "2026-02-21", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083472, "match_date": "2026-02-15", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1732, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083263, "match_date": "2026-02-08", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0576, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 66, "combined_rank_score": 77.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 80.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.5533, "sofascore_appearances": 15.0, "fifa_rank": 75.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7763, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Julián Alvarez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rúben Dias", "ranking": 61 }, { "player_name": "Luis Díaz", "ranking": 62 }, { "player_name": "Max Weiss", "ranking": 63 }, { "player_name": "Paul Villero", "ranking": 64 }, { "player_name": "Cucurella", "ranking": 65 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jamshid Iskandarov", "ranking": 67 }, { "player_name": "Emiliano Martínez", "ranking": 68 }, { "player_name": "Cole Palmer", "ranking": 69 }, { "player_name": "David Raya", "ranking": 70 }, { "player_name": "Granit Xhaka", "ranking": 71 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.753, "history_matches": 32, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 32, "data_confidence": 0.753, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.756, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0159, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 25.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.02 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (32 historical appearances) to 25.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.76); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 25.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0971, "goals": 0.111, "goal_rate": 0.111, "shots_on_target": 0.4089, "total_shots": 1.0698, "expected_assists": 0.0695, "key_pass": 0.557, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 29.94, "total_pass": 15.039, "accurate_pass": 13.5062, "duels_won": 2.1267, "total_long_balls": 0.7505, "accurate_long_balls": 0.653, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3539, "crosses_total": 0.8121, "crosses_accurate": 0.2835, "touches": 23.7971, "possession_lost": 5.1522, "dispossessed": 0.8192, "duels_lost": 2.1795, "aerial_lost": 0.2757, "total_contest": 2.1207, "won_contest": 1.4188, "ball_recovery": 1.0428, "challenges_lost": 0.1018, "fouls": 0.2809, "fouls_drawn": 0.5276, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1804, "tackles": 0.1804, "clearances": 0.0509, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1027, "big_chances_missed": 0.3814, "xgot": 0.1517, "offsides": 0.1338, "ball_carries": 8.715, "total_progression": 20.4008, "progressive_carries": 1.2804, "shots_off_target": 0.6609 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1508, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1282, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.109, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-07", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 37.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-28", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-21", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-15", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 34.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-08", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1838, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 15.1874, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 13.2021, "accuratePass": 17.2905, "totalShots": 1.76 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.09711308777332306, "model_output": 0.0971, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0903 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0039 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0034 } ], "others": -0.0037, "total": 0.0971, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.604977 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.080542 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.069938 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.040853 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.034686 } ], "others_margin": -0.037281 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.11100228130817413, "model_output": 0.111, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0793 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0048 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0043 } ], "others": 0.0043, "total": 0.111, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.492988 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.091016 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.058182 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.045631 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.040763 } ], "others_margin": 0.039715 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.40889543294906616, "model_output": 0.4089, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1973 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0203 } ], "others": -0.0128, "total": 0.4089, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.457946 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.059547 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.053922 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.053501 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.049264 } ], "others_margin": -0.03079 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0697956085205078, "model_output": 1.0698, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5228 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0899 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0416 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0408 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0397 } ], "others": 0.0019, "total": 1.0698, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.522832 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.089855 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.04162 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.040841 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.039662 } ], "others_margin": 0.001943 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06949767470359802, "model_output": 0.0695, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0066 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0036 } ], "others": 0.0109, "total": 0.0695, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.331835 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.152179 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.115561 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.092295 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.063087 } ], "others_margin": 0.171296 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5570076704025269, "model_output": 0.557, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2393 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0537 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0465 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0299 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0207 } ], "others": 0.0727, "total": 0.557, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.438563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.116565 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.091018 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.05753 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.041928 } ], "others_margin": 0.139821 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.776327610015869, "model_output": 6.7763, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0734 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0103 } ], "others": 0.0348, "total": 6.7763, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.073366 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.016191 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013662 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.0125 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.010272 } ], "others_margin": 0.034908 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0159, quality 0.897)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0987, "goals": 0.1128, "goal_rate": 0.1128, "shots_on_target": 0.4154, "total_shots": 1.0868, "expected_assists": 0.0706, "key_pass": 0.5659, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 29.94, "total_pass": 15.2781, "accurate_pass": 13.7209, "duels_won": 2.1605, "total_long_balls": 0.7624, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6634, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8778, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5185, "crosses_total": 0.825, "crosses_accurate": 0.288, "touches": 24.1755, "possession_lost": 5.2341, "dispossessed": 0.8322, "duels_lost": 2.2142, "aerial_lost": 0.2801, "total_contest": 2.1544, "won_contest": 1.4414, "ball_recovery": 1.0594, "challenges_lost": 0.1034, "fouls": 0.2854, "fouls_drawn": 0.536, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1833, "tackles": 0.1833, "clearances": 0.0517, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1043, "big_chances_missed": 0.3875, "xgot": 0.1541, "offsides": 0.1359, "ball_carries": 8.8536, "total_progression": 20.7252, "progressive_carries": 1.3008, "shots_off_target": 0.6714 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 116000000, "quality_factor": 0.897, "boost_factor": 1.0159, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0018)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0987, "goals": 0.1126, "goal_rate": 0.1126, "shots_on_target": 0.4147, "total_shots": 1.087, "expected_assists": 0.0706, "key_pass": 0.5659, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 29.94, "total_pass": 15.2781, "accurate_pass": 13.7209, "duels_won": 2.1605, "total_long_balls": 0.7624, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6634, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8778, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5185, "crosses_total": 0.8236, "crosses_accurate": 0.288, "touches": 24.1755, "possession_lost": 5.2341, "dispossessed": 0.8322, "duels_lost": 2.2142, "aerial_lost": 0.2801, "total_contest": 2.1544, "won_contest": 1.4414, "ball_recovery": 1.0594, "challenges_lost": 0.1034, "fouls": 0.2849, "fouls_drawn": 0.5351, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.183, "tackles": 0.1833, "clearances": 0.0517, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1043, "big_chances_missed": 0.3875, "xgot": 0.1541, "offsides": 0.1357, "ball_carries": 8.8536, "total_progression": 20.7252, "progressive_carries": 1.3008, "shots_off_target": 0.6714 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0018, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3327, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 29.9 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.76)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goals": 0.0976, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "shots_on_target": 0.3594, "total_shots": 0.9421, "expected_assists": 0.0612, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.242, "accurate_pass": 11.8924, "duels_won": 1.8726, "total_long_balls": 0.6608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.575, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1167, "crosses_total": 0.7138, "crosses_accurate": 0.2496, "touches": 20.9537, "possession_lost": 4.5366, "dispossessed": 0.8322, "duels_lost": 1.9191, "aerial_lost": 0.2801, "total_contest": 1.8673, "won_contest": 1.2493, "ball_recovery": 0.9182, "challenges_lost": 0.1034, "fouls": 0.2469, "fouls_drawn": 0.4638, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1586, "tackles": 0.1589, "clearances": 0.0448, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0904, "big_chances_missed": 0.3359, "xgot": 0.1336, "offsides": 0.1357, "ball_carries": 7.6737, "total_progression": 17.9632, "progressive_carries": 1.1274, "shots_off_target": 0.5819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.95, "projection_minutes": 29.94, "minutes_scale": 0.8667, "appearance_probability": 0.756 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goals": 0.0976, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "shots_on_target": 0.3594, "total_shots": 0.9421, "expected_assists": 0.0612, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.242, "accurate_pass": 11.8924, "duels_won": 1.8726, "total_long_balls": 0.6608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.575, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1167, "crosses_total": 0.7138, "crosses_accurate": 0.2496, "touches": 20.9537, "possession_lost": 4.5366, "dispossessed": 0.8322, "duels_lost": 1.9191, "aerial_lost": 0.2801, "total_contest": 1.8673, "won_contest": 1.2493, "ball_recovery": 0.9182, "challenges_lost": 0.1034, "fouls": 0.2469, "fouls_drawn": 0.4638, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1586, "tackles": 0.1589, "clearances": 0.0448, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0904, "big_chances_missed": 0.3359, "xgot": 0.1336, "offsides": 0.1357, "ball_carries": 7.6737, "total_progression": 17.9632, "progressive_carries": 1.1274, "shots_off_target": 0.5819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.71 (squad xG sum 1.9407, xG scale 1.3980, xA scale 1.7031, team xA 1.76 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1195, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3594, "total_shots": 0.9421, "expected_assists": 0.1042, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.242, "accurate_pass": 11.8924, "duels_won": 1.8726, "total_long_balls": 0.6608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.575, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1167, "crosses_total": 0.7138, "crosses_accurate": 0.2496, "touches": 20.9537, "possession_lost": 4.5366, "dispossessed": 0.8322, "duels_lost": 1.9191, "aerial_lost": 0.2801, "total_contest": 1.8673, "won_contest": 1.2493, "ball_recovery": 0.9182, "challenges_lost": 0.1034, "fouls": 0.2469, "fouls_drawn": 0.4638, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1586, "tackles": 0.1589, "clearances": 0.0448, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0904, "big_chances_missed": 0.3359, "xgot": 0.1868, "offsides": 0.1357, "ball_carries": 7.6737, "total_progression": 17.9632, "progressive_carries": 1.1274, "shots_off_target": 0.5819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0893, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.713, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9407, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0355, "team_expected_assists": 1.7635, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.398, "xa_scale": 1.7031, "opponent_lambda": 1.163, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.756 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0855, "after": 0.1195 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0612, "after": 0.1042 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1195, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3594, "total_shots": 0.9421, "expected_assists": 0.1042, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.242, "accurate_pass": 11.8924, "duels_won": 1.8726, "total_long_balls": 0.6608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.575, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1167, "crosses_total": 0.7138, "crosses_accurate": 0.2496, "touches": 20.9537, "possession_lost": 4.5366, "dispossessed": 0.8322, "duels_lost": 1.9191, "aerial_lost": 0.2801, "total_contest": 1.8673, "won_contest": 1.2493, "ball_recovery": 0.9182, "challenges_lost": 0.1034, "fouls": 0.2469, "fouls_drawn": 0.4638, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1586, "tackles": 0.1589, "clearances": 0.0448, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0904, "big_chances_missed": 0.3359, "xgot": 0.1868, "offsides": 0.1357, "ball_carries": 7.6737, "total_progression": 17.9632, "progressive_carries": 1.1274, "shots_off_target": 0.5819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0893, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 66, "fifa_rank": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1195, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3594, "total_shots": 0.9421, "expected_assists": 0.1042, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.242, "accurate_pass": 11.8924, "duels_won": 1.8726, "total_long_balls": 0.6608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.575, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1167, "crosses_total": 0.7138, "crosses_accurate": 0.2496, "touches": 20.9537, "possession_lost": 4.5366, "dispossessed": 0.8322, "duels_lost": 1.9191, "aerial_lost": 0.2801, "total_contest": 1.8673, "won_contest": 1.2493, "ball_recovery": 0.9182, "challenges_lost": 0.1034, "fouls": 0.2469, "fouls_drawn": 0.4638, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1586, "tackles": 0.1589, "clearances": 0.0448, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0904, "big_chances_missed": 0.3359, "xgot": 0.1868, "offsides": 0.1357, "ball_carries": 7.6737, "total_progression": 17.9632, "progressive_carries": 1.1274, "shots_off_target": 0.5819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0852, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0893, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0852, "scorer_weight": 0.0984, "squad_weight_total": 2.945, "weight_share": 0.0334, "finishing_factor": 1.0893, "appearance_weight": 0.756, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jonathan David", "weight": 0.8639, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8639, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5239 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.5239, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5239, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4068 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1195, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3594, "total_shots": 0.9421, "expected_assists": 0.1042, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.242, "accurate_pass": 11.8924, "duels_won": 1.8726, "total_long_balls": 0.6608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.575, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1167, "crosses_total": 0.7138, "crosses_accurate": 0.2496, "touches": 20.9537, "possession_lost": 4.5366, "dispossessed": 0.8322, "duels_lost": 1.9191, "aerial_lost": 0.2801, "total_contest": 1.8673, "won_contest": 1.2493, "ball_recovery": 0.9182, "challenges_lost": 0.1034, "fouls": 0.2469, "fouls_drawn": 0.4638, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1586, "tackles": 0.1589, "clearances": 0.0448, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0904, "big_chances_missed": 0.3359, "xgot": 0.1868, "offsides": 0.1357, "ball_carries": 7.6737, "total_progression": 17.9632, "progressive_carries": 1.1274, "shots_off_target": 0.5819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0852, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0748, "finishing_factor": 1.0893, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0748, "provider_weight": 0.063, "squad_weight_total": 1.6801, "weight_share": 0.0375, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.756, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.2713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2713, "runner_up": "Marcos Llorente", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1959 } ] } } ] }, "Kang-in Lee": { "player_id": 917087, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 173, "market_value": 30000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1553, "goal_rate": 0.1296, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1732, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9413, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 33, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 30, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 58, "possession_lost": 12.8307, "dispossessed": 1.202, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.1284, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.5515, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 69, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.609, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0876, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0968, "finishing_factor": 1.1148, "creation_factor": 1.176, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0305, "expected_assists": 0.213, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416335, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7597, "expected_assists": 0.3558, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0435, "expected_assists": 0.0534, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0846, "expected_assists": 0.0551, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0371, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1968, "expected_assists": 0.1149, "total_shots": 6, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1291, "expected_assists": 0.0493, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 802, "combined_rank_score": 390.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 21.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.1, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 759.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9413, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kang-in Lee", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Islomzhon Kobilov", "ranking": 797 }, { "player_name": "Khurshid Giyosov", "ranking": 798 }, { "player_name": "Jeremie Frimpong", "ranking": 799 }, { "player_name": "Diego Oyarzún", "ranking": 800 }, { "player_name": "Leroy Sané", "ranking": 801 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Harvey Barnes", "ranking": 803 }, { "player_name": "Nicola Pérez", "ranking": 804 }, { "player_name": "Jun-seo Park", "ranking": 805 }, { "player_name": "Chang-woo Park", "ranking": 806 }, { "player_name": "Ronan", "ranking": 807 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.688, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.688, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.401594925726826, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.6091634057148558, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0266, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (7 historical appearances) to 26.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.61)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0997, "goals": 0.1163, "goal_rate": 0.1163, "shots_on_target": 0.4635, "total_shots": 1.3161, "expected_assists": 0.0913, "key_pass": 0.5413, "rating": 6.9413, "minutes": 24.33, "total_pass": 36.7881, "accurate_pass": 29.8532, "duels_won": 4.7135, "total_long_balls": 2.0729, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9877, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.6913, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.7569, "crosses_total": 1.3829, "crosses_accurate": 0.5679, "touches": 52.128, "possession_lost": 11.5175, "dispossessed": 1.1709, "duels_lost": 4.7379, "aerial_lost": 0.2188, "total_contest": 2.3512, "won_contest": 1.6597, "ball_recovery": 2.9989, "challenges_lost": 0.9531, "fouls": 1.8912, "fouls_drawn": 1.125, "assists": 0.1152, "assist_rate": 0.1152, "interceptions": 0.2856, "tackles_won": 1.0418, "tackles": 1.4221, "clearances": 0.3232, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3862, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.3541, "offsides": 0.1877, "ball_carries": 20.1284, "total_progression": 62.2902, "progressive_carries": 3.1657, "shots_off_target": 0.8525 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 9.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 8.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1977, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 26.6913, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 21.7569, "accuratePass": 29.8532, "totalShots": 2.8357 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0997069850564003, "model_output": 0.0997, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0919 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0079 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0064 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0054 } ], "others": -0.0075, "total": 0.0997, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.619901 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.086091 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.077204 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.058469 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.049177 } ], "others_margin": -0.071347 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.11628910154104233, "model_output": 0.1163, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0908 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0094 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0069 } ], "others": -0.0118, "total": 0.1163, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.589909 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.079726 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.068772 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.059439 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.055711 } ], "others_margin": -0.097006 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.4635447561740875, "model_output": 0.4635, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2234 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0571 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0281 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0279 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0195 } ], "others": 0.0735, "total": 0.4635, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.538034 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.167308 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.0789 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.078425 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.051219 } ], "others_margin": 0.172924 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.3160603046417236, "model_output": 1.3161, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6789 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2753 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0873 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0834 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0439 } ], "others": 0.1264, "total": 1.3161, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.678863 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.27534 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.087292 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.083406 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.043887 } ], "others_margin": 0.126291 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.09129150956869125, "model_output": 0.0913, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0093 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0069 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0047 } ], "others": 0.0327, "total": 0.0913, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.409907 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.197096 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.124297 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.089214 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.083985 } ], "others_margin": 0.4445 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5412977933883667, "model_output": 0.5413, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3114 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0636 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0485 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0267 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0224 } ], "others": 0.0709, "total": 0.5413, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.619951 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.161588 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.10779 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.057831 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.048875 } ], "others_margin": 0.140302 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.941349506378174, "model_output": 6.9413, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0974 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0902 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0603 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0342 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0282 } ], "others": 0.0637, "total": 6.9414, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.097438 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.090182 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.060272 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.034225 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.02817 } ], "others_margin": 0.063777 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0266, quality 0.718)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1024, "goals": 0.1194, "goal_rate": 0.1194, "shots_on_target": 0.4759, "total_shots": 1.3511, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "key_pass": 0.5557, "rating": 6.9413, "minutes": 24.33, "total_pass": 37.7667, "accurate_pass": 30.6473, "duels_won": 4.8389, "total_long_balls": 2.128, "accurate_long_balls": 1.014, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.4013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3356, "crosses_total": 1.4197, "crosses_accurate": 0.583, "touches": 53.5146, "possession_lost": 11.8239, "dispossessed": 1.202, "duels_lost": 4.8639, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.4137, "won_contest": 1.7038, "ball_recovery": 3.0787, "challenges_lost": 0.9785, "fouls": 1.9415, "fouls_drawn": 1.1549, "assists": 0.1183, "assist_rate": 0.1183, "interceptions": 0.2932, "tackles_won": 1.0695, "tackles": 1.4599, "clearances": 0.3318, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3965, "big_chances_missed": 0.2229, "xgot": 0.3635, "offsides": 0.1927, "ball_carries": 20.6638, "total_progression": 63.9471, "progressive_carries": 3.2499, "shots_off_target": 0.8752 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 30000000, "quality_factor": 0.7176, "boost_factor": 1.0266, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.3 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1111, "goals": 0.1296, "goal_rate": 0.1296, "shots_on_target": 0.5164, "total_shots": 1.4661, "expected_assists": 0.1017, "key_pass": 0.603, "rating": 6.9413, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 40.9824, "accurate_pass": 33.2568, "duels_won": 5.2509, "total_long_balls": 2.3092, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1003, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.7344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.2374, "crosses_total": 1.5406, "crosses_accurate": 0.6326, "touches": 58.0711, "possession_lost": 12.8307, "dispossessed": 1.202, "duels_lost": 5.278, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.6192, "won_contest": 1.8489, "ball_recovery": 3.3408, "challenges_lost": 0.9785, "fouls": 2.1068, "fouls_drawn": 1.2532, "assists": 0.1284, "assist_rate": 0.1284, "interceptions": 0.3182, "tackles_won": 1.1606, "tackles": 1.5842, "clearances": 0.3601, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4303, "big_chances_missed": 0.2419, "xgot": 0.3945, "offsides": 0.1927, "ball_carries": 22.4232, "total_progression": 69.3919, "progressive_carries": 3.5266, "shots_off_target": 0.9497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.609, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.4, "projection_minutes": 24.33, "minutes_scale": 1.0851, "appearance_probability": 0.609 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1111, "goals": 0.1296, "goal_rate": 0.1296, "shots_on_target": 0.5164, "total_shots": 1.4661, "expected_assists": 0.1017, "key_pass": 0.603, "rating": 6.9413, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 40.9824, "accurate_pass": 33.2568, "duels_won": 5.2509, "total_long_balls": 2.3092, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1003, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.7344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.2374, "crosses_total": 1.5406, "crosses_accurate": 0.6326, "touches": 58.0711, "possession_lost": 12.8307, "dispossessed": 1.202, "duels_lost": 5.278, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.6192, "won_contest": 1.8489, "ball_recovery": 3.3408, "challenges_lost": 0.9785, "fouls": 2.1068, "fouls_drawn": 1.2532, "assists": 0.1284, "assist_rate": 0.1284, "interceptions": 0.3182, "tackles_won": 1.1606, "tackles": 1.5842, "clearances": 0.3601, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4303, "big_chances_missed": 0.2419, "xgot": 0.3945, "offsides": 0.1927, "ball_carries": 22.4232, "total_progression": 69.3919, "progressive_carries": 3.5266, "shots_off_target": 0.9497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.609, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.71 (squad xG sum 1.9407, xG scale 1.3980, xA scale 1.7031, team xA 1.76 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1553, "goal_rate": 0.1296, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5164, "total_shots": 1.4661, "expected_assists": 0.1732, "key_pass": 0.603, "rating": 6.9413, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 40.9824, "accurate_pass": 33.2568, "duels_won": 5.2509, "total_long_balls": 2.3092, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1003, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.7344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.2374, "crosses_total": 1.5406, "crosses_accurate": 0.6326, "touches": 58.0711, "possession_lost": 12.8307, "dispossessed": 1.202, "duels_lost": 5.278, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.6192, "won_contest": 1.8489, "ball_recovery": 3.3408, "challenges_lost": 0.9785, "fouls": 2.1068, "fouls_drawn": 1.2532, "assist_rate": 0.1284, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3182, "tackles_won": 1.1606, "tackles": 1.5842, "clearances": 0.3601, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4303, "big_chances_missed": 0.2419, "xgot": 0.5515, "offsides": 0.1927, "ball_carries": 22.4232, "total_progression": 69.3919, "progressive_carries": 3.5266, "shots_off_target": 0.9497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.609, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1148, "creation_factor": 1.176 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.713, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9407, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0355, "team_expected_assists": 1.7635, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.398, "xa_scale": 1.7031, "opponent_lambda": 1.163, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.609 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1111, "after": 0.1553 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1017, "after": 0.1732 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1553, "goal_rate": 0.1296, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5164, "total_shots": 1.4661, "expected_assists": 0.1732, "key_pass": 0.603, "rating": 6.9413, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 40.9824, "accurate_pass": 33.2568, "duels_won": 5.2509, "total_long_balls": 2.3092, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1003, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.7344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.2374, "crosses_total": 1.5406, "crosses_accurate": 0.6326, "touches": 58.0711, "possession_lost": 12.8307, "dispossessed": 1.202, "duels_lost": 5.278, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.6192, "won_contest": 1.8489, "ball_recovery": 3.3408, "challenges_lost": 0.9785, "fouls": 2.1068, "fouls_drawn": 1.2532, "assist_rate": 0.1284, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3182, "tackles_won": 1.1606, "tackles": 1.5842, "clearances": 0.3601, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4303, "big_chances_missed": 0.2419, "xgot": 0.5515, "offsides": 0.1927, "ball_carries": 22.4232, "total_progression": 69.3919, "progressive_carries": 3.5266, "shots_off_target": 0.9497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.609, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1148, "creation_factor": 1.176, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 802, "fifa_rank": 759.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1553, "goal_rate": 0.1296, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5164, "total_shots": 1.4661, "expected_assists": 0.1732, "key_pass": 0.603, "rating": 6.9413, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 40.9824, "accurate_pass": 33.2568, "duels_won": 5.2509, "total_long_balls": 2.3092, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1003, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.7344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.2374, "crosses_total": 1.5406, "crosses_accurate": 0.6326, "touches": 58.0711, "possession_lost": 12.8307, "dispossessed": 1.202, "duels_lost": 5.278, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.6192, "won_contest": 1.8489, "ball_recovery": 3.3408, "challenges_lost": 0.9785, "fouls": 2.1068, "fouls_drawn": 1.2532, "assist_rate": 0.1284, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3182, "tackles_won": 1.1606, "tackles": 1.5842, "clearances": 0.3601, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4303, "big_chances_missed": 0.2419, "xgot": 0.5515, "offsides": 0.1927, "ball_carries": 22.4232, "total_progression": 69.3919, "progressive_carries": 3.5266, "shots_off_target": 0.9497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.609, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0876, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1148, "creation_factor": 1.176, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0876, "scorer_weight": 0.1054, "squad_weight_total": 2.945, "weight_share": 0.0358, "finishing_factor": 1.1148, "appearance_weight": 0.609, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jonathan David", "weight": 0.8639, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8639, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5239 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.5239, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5239, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4068 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1553, "goal_rate": 0.1296, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5164, "total_shots": 1.4661, "expected_assists": 0.1732, "key_pass": 0.603, "rating": 6.9413, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 40.9824, "accurate_pass": 33.2568, "duels_won": 5.2509, "total_long_balls": 2.3092, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1003, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.7344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.2374, "crosses_total": 1.5406, "crosses_accurate": 0.6326, "touches": 58.0711, "possession_lost": 12.8307, "dispossessed": 1.202, "duels_lost": 5.278, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.6192, "won_contest": 1.8489, "ball_recovery": 3.3408, "challenges_lost": 0.9785, "fouls": 2.1068, "fouls_drawn": 1.2532, "assist_rate": 0.1284, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3182, "tackles_won": 1.1606, "tackles": 1.5842, "clearances": 0.3601, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4303, "big_chances_missed": 0.2419, "xgot": 0.5515, "offsides": 0.1927, "ball_carries": 22.4232, "total_progression": 69.3919, "progressive_carries": 3.5266, "shots_off_target": 0.9497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.609, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0876, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0968, "finishing_factor": 1.1148, "creation_factor": 1.176, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0968, "provider_weight": 0.124, "squad_weight_total": 1.6801, "weight_share": 0.0738, "creation_factor": 1.176, "appearance_weight": 0.609, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.2713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2713, "runner_up": "Marcos Llorente", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1959 } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Julián Alvarez": { "player_id": 944656, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 170, "market_value": 116000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1195, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1042, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 4.5366, "dispossessed": 0.8322, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1868, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0852, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0748, "finishing_factor": 1.0893, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3341, "expected_assists": 0.0842, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2286, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0464, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14081807, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2591, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083612, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2889, "expected_assists": 0.1596, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083602, "match_date": "2026-03-07", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 37, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.4966, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081795, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2713, "expected_assists": 0.0973, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083561, "match_date": "2026-02-21", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083472, "match_date": "2026-02-15", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1732, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083263, "match_date": "2026-02-08", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0576, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 66, "combined_rank_score": 77.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 80.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.5533, "sofascore_appearances": 15.0, "fifa_rank": 75.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7763, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Julián Alvarez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rúben Dias", "ranking": 61 }, { "player_name": "Luis Díaz", "ranking": 62 }, { "player_name": "Max Weiss", "ranking": 63 }, { "player_name": "Paul Villero", "ranking": 64 }, { "player_name": "Cucurella", "ranking": 65 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jamshid Iskandarov", "ranking": 67 }, { "player_name": "Emiliano Martínez", "ranking": 68 }, { "player_name": "Cole Palmer", "ranking": 69 }, { "player_name": "David Raya", "ranking": 70 }, { "player_name": "Granit Xhaka", "ranking": 71 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.753, "history_matches": 32, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 32, "data_confidence": 0.753, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.756, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0159, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 25.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.02 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (32 historical appearances) to 25.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.76); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 25.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0971, "goals": 0.111, "goal_rate": 0.111, "shots_on_target": 0.4089, "total_shots": 1.0698, "expected_assists": 0.0695, "key_pass": 0.557, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 29.94, "total_pass": 15.039, "accurate_pass": 13.5062, "duels_won": 2.1267, "total_long_balls": 0.7505, "accurate_long_balls": 0.653, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3539, "crosses_total": 0.8121, "crosses_accurate": 0.2835, "touches": 23.7971, "possession_lost": 5.1522, "dispossessed": 0.8192, "duels_lost": 2.1795, "aerial_lost": 0.2757, "total_contest": 2.1207, "won_contest": 1.4188, "ball_recovery": 1.0428, "challenges_lost": 0.1018, "fouls": 0.2809, "fouls_drawn": 0.5276, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1804, "tackles": 0.1804, "clearances": 0.0509, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1027, "big_chances_missed": 0.3814, "xgot": 0.1517, "offsides": 0.1338, "ball_carries": 8.715, "total_progression": 20.4008, "progressive_carries": 1.2804, "shots_off_target": 0.6609 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1508, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1282, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.109, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-07", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 37.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-28", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-21", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-15", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 34.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-08", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1838, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 15.1874, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 13.2021, "accuratePass": 17.2905, "totalShots": 1.76 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.09711308777332306, "model_output": 0.0971, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0903 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0039 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0034 } ], "others": -0.0037, "total": 0.0971, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.604977 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.080542 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.069938 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.040853 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.034686 } ], "others_margin": -0.037281 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.11100228130817413, "model_output": 0.111, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0793 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0048 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0043 } ], "others": 0.0043, "total": 0.111, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.492988 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.091016 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.058182 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.045631 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.040763 } ], "others_margin": 0.039715 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.40889543294906616, "model_output": 0.4089, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1973 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0203 } ], "others": -0.0128, "total": 0.4089, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.457946 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.059547 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.053922 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.053501 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.049264 } ], "others_margin": -0.03079 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0697956085205078, "model_output": 1.0698, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5228 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0899 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0416 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0408 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0397 } ], "others": 0.0019, "total": 1.0698, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.522832 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.089855 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.04162 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.040841 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.039662 } ], "others_margin": 0.001943 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06949767470359802, "model_output": 0.0695, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0066 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0036 } ], "others": 0.0109, "total": 0.0695, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.331835 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.152179 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.115561 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.092295 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.063087 } ], "others_margin": 0.171296 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5570076704025269, "model_output": 0.557, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2393 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0537 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0465 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0299 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0207 } ], "others": 0.0727, "total": 0.557, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.438563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.116565 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.091018 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.05753 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.041928 } ], "others_margin": 0.139821 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.776327610015869, "model_output": 6.7763, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0734 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0103 } ], "others": 0.0348, "total": 6.7763, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.073366 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.016191 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013662 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.0125 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.010272 } ], "others_margin": 0.034908 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0159, quality 0.897)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0987, "goals": 0.1128, "goal_rate": 0.1128, "shots_on_target": 0.4154, "total_shots": 1.0868, "expected_assists": 0.0706, "key_pass": 0.5659, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 29.94, "total_pass": 15.2781, "accurate_pass": 13.7209, "duels_won": 2.1605, "total_long_balls": 0.7624, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6634, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8778, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5185, "crosses_total": 0.825, "crosses_accurate": 0.288, "touches": 24.1755, "possession_lost": 5.2341, "dispossessed": 0.8322, "duels_lost": 2.2142, "aerial_lost": 0.2801, "total_contest": 2.1544, "won_contest": 1.4414, "ball_recovery": 1.0594, "challenges_lost": 0.1034, "fouls": 0.2854, "fouls_drawn": 0.536, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1833, "tackles": 0.1833, "clearances": 0.0517, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1043, "big_chances_missed": 0.3875, "xgot": 0.1541, "offsides": 0.1359, "ball_carries": 8.8536, "total_progression": 20.7252, "progressive_carries": 1.3008, "shots_off_target": 0.6714 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 116000000, "quality_factor": 0.897, "boost_factor": 1.0159, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0018)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0987, "goals": 0.1126, "goal_rate": 0.1126, "shots_on_target": 0.4147, "total_shots": 1.087, "expected_assists": 0.0706, "key_pass": 0.5659, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 29.94, "total_pass": 15.2781, "accurate_pass": 13.7209, "duels_won": 2.1605, "total_long_balls": 0.7624, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6634, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8778, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5185, "crosses_total": 0.8236, "crosses_accurate": 0.288, "touches": 24.1755, "possession_lost": 5.2341, "dispossessed": 0.8322, "duels_lost": 2.2142, "aerial_lost": 0.2801, "total_contest": 2.1544, "won_contest": 1.4414, "ball_recovery": 1.0594, "challenges_lost": 0.1034, "fouls": 0.2849, "fouls_drawn": 0.5351, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.183, "tackles": 0.1833, "clearances": 0.0517, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1043, "big_chances_missed": 0.3875, "xgot": 0.1541, "offsides": 0.1357, "ball_carries": 8.8536, "total_progression": 20.7252, "progressive_carries": 1.3008, "shots_off_target": 0.6714 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0018, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3327, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 29.9 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.76)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goals": 0.0976, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "shots_on_target": 0.3594, "total_shots": 0.9421, "expected_assists": 0.0612, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.242, "accurate_pass": 11.8924, "duels_won": 1.8726, "total_long_balls": 0.6608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.575, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1167, "crosses_total": 0.7138, "crosses_accurate": 0.2496, "touches": 20.9537, "possession_lost": 4.5366, "dispossessed": 0.8322, "duels_lost": 1.9191, "aerial_lost": 0.2801, "total_contest": 1.8673, "won_contest": 1.2493, "ball_recovery": 0.9182, "challenges_lost": 0.1034, "fouls": 0.2469, "fouls_drawn": 0.4638, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1586, "tackles": 0.1589, "clearances": 0.0448, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0904, "big_chances_missed": 0.3359, "xgot": 0.1336, "offsides": 0.1357, "ball_carries": 7.6737, "total_progression": 17.9632, "progressive_carries": 1.1274, "shots_off_target": 0.5819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.95, "projection_minutes": 29.94, "minutes_scale": 0.8667, "appearance_probability": 0.756 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goals": 0.0976, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "shots_on_target": 0.3594, "total_shots": 0.9421, "expected_assists": 0.0612, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.242, "accurate_pass": 11.8924, "duels_won": 1.8726, "total_long_balls": 0.6608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.575, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1167, "crosses_total": 0.7138, "crosses_accurate": 0.2496, "touches": 20.9537, "possession_lost": 4.5366, "dispossessed": 0.8322, "duels_lost": 1.9191, "aerial_lost": 0.2801, "total_contest": 1.8673, "won_contest": 1.2493, "ball_recovery": 0.9182, "challenges_lost": 0.1034, "fouls": 0.2469, "fouls_drawn": 0.4638, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1586, "tackles": 0.1589, "clearances": 0.0448, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0904, "big_chances_missed": 0.3359, "xgot": 0.1336, "offsides": 0.1357, "ball_carries": 7.6737, "total_progression": 17.9632, "progressive_carries": 1.1274, "shots_off_target": 0.5819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.71 (squad xG sum 1.9407, xG scale 1.3980, xA scale 1.7031, team xA 1.76 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1195, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3594, "total_shots": 0.9421, "expected_assists": 0.1042, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.242, "accurate_pass": 11.8924, "duels_won": 1.8726, "total_long_balls": 0.6608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.575, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1167, "crosses_total": 0.7138, "crosses_accurate": 0.2496, "touches": 20.9537, "possession_lost": 4.5366, "dispossessed": 0.8322, "duels_lost": 1.9191, "aerial_lost": 0.2801, "total_contest": 1.8673, "won_contest": 1.2493, "ball_recovery": 0.9182, "challenges_lost": 0.1034, "fouls": 0.2469, "fouls_drawn": 0.4638, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1586, "tackles": 0.1589, "clearances": 0.0448, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0904, "big_chances_missed": 0.3359, "xgot": 0.1868, "offsides": 0.1357, "ball_carries": 7.6737, "total_progression": 17.9632, "progressive_carries": 1.1274, "shots_off_target": 0.5819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0893, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.713, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9407, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0355, "team_expected_assists": 1.7635, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.398, "xa_scale": 1.7031, "opponent_lambda": 1.163, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.756 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0855, "after": 0.1195 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0612, "after": 0.1042 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1195, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3594, "total_shots": 0.9421, "expected_assists": 0.1042, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.242, "accurate_pass": 11.8924, "duels_won": 1.8726, "total_long_balls": 0.6608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.575, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1167, "crosses_total": 0.7138, "crosses_accurate": 0.2496, "touches": 20.9537, "possession_lost": 4.5366, "dispossessed": 0.8322, "duels_lost": 1.9191, "aerial_lost": 0.2801, "total_contest": 1.8673, "won_contest": 1.2493, "ball_recovery": 0.9182, "challenges_lost": 0.1034, "fouls": 0.2469, "fouls_drawn": 0.4638, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1586, "tackles": 0.1589, "clearances": 0.0448, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0904, "big_chances_missed": 0.3359, "xgot": 0.1868, "offsides": 0.1357, "ball_carries": 7.6737, "total_progression": 17.9632, "progressive_carries": 1.1274, "shots_off_target": 0.5819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0893, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 66, "fifa_rank": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1195, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3594, "total_shots": 0.9421, "expected_assists": 0.1042, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.242, "accurate_pass": 11.8924, "duels_won": 1.8726, "total_long_balls": 0.6608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.575, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1167, "crosses_total": 0.7138, "crosses_accurate": 0.2496, "touches": 20.9537, "possession_lost": 4.5366, "dispossessed": 0.8322, "duels_lost": 1.9191, "aerial_lost": 0.2801, "total_contest": 1.8673, "won_contest": 1.2493, "ball_recovery": 0.9182, "challenges_lost": 0.1034, "fouls": 0.2469, "fouls_drawn": 0.4638, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1586, "tackles": 0.1589, "clearances": 0.0448, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0904, "big_chances_missed": 0.3359, "xgot": 0.1868, "offsides": 0.1357, "ball_carries": 7.6737, "total_progression": 17.9632, "progressive_carries": 1.1274, "shots_off_target": 0.5819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0852, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0893, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0852, "scorer_weight": 0.0984, "squad_weight_total": 2.945, "weight_share": 0.0334, "finishing_factor": 1.0893, "appearance_weight": 0.756, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jonathan David", "weight": 0.8639, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8639, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5239 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.5239, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5239, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4068 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1195, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3594, "total_shots": 0.9421, "expected_assists": 0.1042, "key_pass": 0.4905, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 25.95, "total_pass": 13.242, "accurate_pass": 11.8924, "duels_won": 1.8726, "total_long_balls": 0.6608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.575, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1167, "crosses_total": 0.7138, "crosses_accurate": 0.2496, "touches": 20.9537, "possession_lost": 4.5366, "dispossessed": 0.8322, "duels_lost": 1.9191, "aerial_lost": 0.2801, "total_contest": 1.8673, "won_contest": 1.2493, "ball_recovery": 0.9182, "challenges_lost": 0.1034, "fouls": 0.2469, "fouls_drawn": 0.4638, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1586, "tackles": 0.1589, "clearances": 0.0448, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0904, "big_chances_missed": 0.3359, "xgot": 0.1868, "offsides": 0.1357, "ball_carries": 7.6737, "total_progression": 17.9632, "progressive_carries": 1.1274, "shots_off_target": 0.5819, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.95, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0852, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0748, "finishing_factor": 1.0893, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0748, "provider_weight": 0.063, "squad_weight_total": 1.6801, "weight_share": 0.0375, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.756, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.2713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2713, "runner_up": "Marcos Llorente", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1959 } ] } } ] }, "Kang-in Lee": { "player_id": 917087, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 173, "market_value": 30000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1553, "goal_rate": 0.1296, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1732, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9413, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 33, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 30, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 58, "possession_lost": 12.8307, "dispossessed": 1.202, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.1284, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.5515, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 69, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.609, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0876, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0968, "finishing_factor": 1.1148, "creation_factor": 1.176, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0305, "expected_assists": 0.213, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416335, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7597, "expected_assists": 0.3558, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0435, "expected_assists": 0.0534, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0846, "expected_assists": 0.0551, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0371, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1968, "expected_assists": 0.1149, "total_shots": 6, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1291, "expected_assists": 0.0493, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 802, "combined_rank_score": 390.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 21.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.1, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 759.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9413, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kang-in Lee", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Islomzhon Kobilov", "ranking": 797 }, { "player_name": "Khurshid Giyosov", "ranking": 798 }, { "player_name": "Jeremie Frimpong", "ranking": 799 }, { "player_name": "Diego Oyarzún", "ranking": 800 }, { "player_name": "Leroy Sané", "ranking": 801 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Harvey Barnes", "ranking": 803 }, { "player_name": "Nicola Pérez", "ranking": 804 }, { "player_name": "Jun-seo Park", "ranking": 805 }, { "player_name": "Chang-woo Park", "ranking": 806 }, { "player_name": "Ronan", "ranking": 807 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.688, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.688, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.401594925726826, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.6091634057148558, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0266, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (7 historical appearances) to 26.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.61)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0997, "goals": 0.1163, "goal_rate": 0.1163, "shots_on_target": 0.4635, "total_shots": 1.3161, "expected_assists": 0.0913, "key_pass": 0.5413, "rating": 6.9413, "minutes": 24.33, "total_pass": 36.7881, "accurate_pass": 29.8532, "duels_won": 4.7135, "total_long_balls": 2.0729, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9877, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.6913, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.7569, "crosses_total": 1.3829, "crosses_accurate": 0.5679, "touches": 52.128, "possession_lost": 11.5175, "dispossessed": 1.1709, "duels_lost": 4.7379, "aerial_lost": 0.2188, "total_contest": 2.3512, "won_contest": 1.6597, "ball_recovery": 2.9989, "challenges_lost": 0.9531, "fouls": 1.8912, "fouls_drawn": 1.125, "assists": 0.1152, "assist_rate": 0.1152, "interceptions": 0.2856, "tackles_won": 1.0418, "tackles": 1.4221, "clearances": 0.3232, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3862, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.3541, "offsides": 0.1877, "ball_carries": 20.1284, "total_progression": 62.2902, "progressive_carries": 3.1657, "shots_off_target": 0.8525 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 9.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 8.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1977, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 26.6913, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 21.7569, "accuratePass": 29.8532, "totalShots": 2.8357 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0997069850564003, "model_output": 0.0997, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0919 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0079 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0064 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0054 } ], "others": -0.0075, "total": 0.0997, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.619901 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.086091 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.077204 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.058469 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.049177 } ], "others_margin": -0.071347 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.11628910154104233, "model_output": 0.1163, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0908 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0094 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0069 } ], "others": -0.0118, "total": 0.1163, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.589909 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.079726 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.068772 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.059439 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.055711 } ], "others_margin": -0.097006 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.4635447561740875, "model_output": 0.4635, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2234 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0571 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0281 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0279 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0195 } ], "others": 0.0735, "total": 0.4635, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.538034 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.167308 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.0789 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.078425 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.051219 } ], "others_margin": 0.172924 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.3160603046417236, "model_output": 1.3161, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6789 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2753 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0873 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0834 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0439 } ], "others": 0.1264, "total": 1.3161, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.678863 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.27534 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.087292 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.083406 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.043887 } ], "others_margin": 0.126291 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.09129150956869125, "model_output": 0.0913, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0093 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0069 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0047 } ], "others": 0.0327, "total": 0.0913, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.409907 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.197096 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.124297 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.089214 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.083985 } ], "others_margin": 0.4445 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5412977933883667, "model_output": 0.5413, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3114 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0636 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0485 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0267 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0224 } ], "others": 0.0709, "total": 0.5413, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.619951 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.161588 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.10779 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.057831 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.048875 } ], "others_margin": 0.140302 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.941349506378174, "model_output": 6.9413, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0974 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0902 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0603 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0342 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0282 } ], "others": 0.0637, "total": 6.9414, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.097438 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.090182 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.060272 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.034225 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.02817 } ], "others_margin": 0.063777 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0266, quality 0.718)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1024, "goals": 0.1194, "goal_rate": 0.1194, "shots_on_target": 0.4759, "total_shots": 1.3511, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "key_pass": 0.5557, "rating": 6.9413, "minutes": 24.33, "total_pass": 37.7667, "accurate_pass": 30.6473, "duels_won": 4.8389, "total_long_balls": 2.128, "accurate_long_balls": 1.014, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.4013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3356, "crosses_total": 1.4197, "crosses_accurate": 0.583, "touches": 53.5146, "possession_lost": 11.8239, "dispossessed": 1.202, "duels_lost": 4.8639, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.4137, "won_contest": 1.7038, "ball_recovery": 3.0787, "challenges_lost": 0.9785, "fouls": 1.9415, "fouls_drawn": 1.1549, "assists": 0.1183, "assist_rate": 0.1183, "interceptions": 0.2932, "tackles_won": 1.0695, "tackles": 1.4599, "clearances": 0.3318, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3965, "big_chances_missed": 0.2229, "xgot": 0.3635, "offsides": 0.1927, "ball_carries": 20.6638, "total_progression": 63.9471, "progressive_carries": 3.2499, "shots_off_target": 0.8752 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 30000000, "quality_factor": 0.7176, "boost_factor": 1.0266, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.3 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1111, "goals": 0.1296, "goal_rate": 0.1296, "shots_on_target": 0.5164, "total_shots": 1.4661, "expected_assists": 0.1017, "key_pass": 0.603, "rating": 6.9413, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 40.9824, "accurate_pass": 33.2568, "duels_won": 5.2509, "total_long_balls": 2.3092, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1003, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.7344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.2374, "crosses_total": 1.5406, "crosses_accurate": 0.6326, "touches": 58.0711, "possession_lost": 12.8307, "dispossessed": 1.202, "duels_lost": 5.278, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.6192, "won_contest": 1.8489, "ball_recovery": 3.3408, "challenges_lost": 0.9785, "fouls": 2.1068, "fouls_drawn": 1.2532, "assists": 0.1284, "assist_rate": 0.1284, "interceptions": 0.3182, "tackles_won": 1.1606, "tackles": 1.5842, "clearances": 0.3601, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4303, "big_chances_missed": 0.2419, "xgot": 0.3945, "offsides": 0.1927, "ball_carries": 22.4232, "total_progression": 69.3919, "progressive_carries": 3.5266, "shots_off_target": 0.9497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.609, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.4, "projection_minutes": 24.33, "minutes_scale": 1.0851, "appearance_probability": 0.609 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1111, "goals": 0.1296, "goal_rate": 0.1296, "shots_on_target": 0.5164, "total_shots": 1.4661, "expected_assists": 0.1017, "key_pass": 0.603, "rating": 6.9413, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 40.9824, "accurate_pass": 33.2568, "duels_won": 5.2509, "total_long_balls": 2.3092, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1003, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.7344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.2374, "crosses_total": 1.5406, "crosses_accurate": 0.6326, "touches": 58.0711, "possession_lost": 12.8307, "dispossessed": 1.202, "duels_lost": 5.278, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.6192, "won_contest": 1.8489, "ball_recovery": 3.3408, "challenges_lost": 0.9785, "fouls": 2.1068, "fouls_drawn": 1.2532, "assists": 0.1284, "assist_rate": 0.1284, "interceptions": 0.3182, "tackles_won": 1.1606, "tackles": 1.5842, "clearances": 0.3601, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4303, "big_chances_missed": 0.2419, "xgot": 0.3945, "offsides": 0.1927, "ball_carries": 22.4232, "total_progression": 69.3919, "progressive_carries": 3.5266, "shots_off_target": 0.9497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.609, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.71 (squad xG sum 1.9407, xG scale 1.3980, xA scale 1.7031, team xA 1.76 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1553, "goal_rate": 0.1296, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5164, "total_shots": 1.4661, "expected_assists": 0.1732, "key_pass": 0.603, "rating": 6.9413, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 40.9824, "accurate_pass": 33.2568, "duels_won": 5.2509, "total_long_balls": 2.3092, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1003, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.7344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.2374, "crosses_total": 1.5406, "crosses_accurate": 0.6326, "touches": 58.0711, "possession_lost": 12.8307, "dispossessed": 1.202, "duels_lost": 5.278, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.6192, "won_contest": 1.8489, "ball_recovery": 3.3408, "challenges_lost": 0.9785, "fouls": 2.1068, "fouls_drawn": 1.2532, "assist_rate": 0.1284, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3182, "tackles_won": 1.1606, "tackles": 1.5842, "clearances": 0.3601, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4303, "big_chances_missed": 0.2419, "xgot": 0.5515, "offsides": 0.1927, "ball_carries": 22.4232, "total_progression": 69.3919, "progressive_carries": 3.5266, "shots_off_target": 0.9497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.609, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1148, "creation_factor": 1.176 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.713, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9407, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0355, "team_expected_assists": 1.7635, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.398, "xa_scale": 1.7031, "opponent_lambda": 1.163, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.609 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1111, "after": 0.1553 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1017, "after": 0.1732 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1553, "goal_rate": 0.1296, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5164, "total_shots": 1.4661, "expected_assists": 0.1732, "key_pass": 0.603, "rating": 6.9413, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 40.9824, "accurate_pass": 33.2568, "duels_won": 5.2509, "total_long_balls": 2.3092, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1003, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.7344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.2374, "crosses_total": 1.5406, "crosses_accurate": 0.6326, "touches": 58.0711, "possession_lost": 12.8307, "dispossessed": 1.202, "duels_lost": 5.278, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.6192, "won_contest": 1.8489, "ball_recovery": 3.3408, "challenges_lost": 0.9785, "fouls": 2.1068, "fouls_drawn": 1.2532, "assist_rate": 0.1284, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3182, "tackles_won": 1.1606, "tackles": 1.5842, "clearances": 0.3601, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4303, "big_chances_missed": 0.2419, "xgot": 0.5515, "offsides": 0.1927, "ball_carries": 22.4232, "total_progression": 69.3919, "progressive_carries": 3.5266, "shots_off_target": 0.9497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.609, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1148, "creation_factor": 1.176, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 802, "fifa_rank": 759.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1553, "goal_rate": 0.1296, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5164, "total_shots": 1.4661, "expected_assists": 0.1732, "key_pass": 0.603, "rating": 6.9413, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 40.9824, "accurate_pass": 33.2568, "duels_won": 5.2509, "total_long_balls": 2.3092, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1003, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.7344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.2374, "crosses_total": 1.5406, "crosses_accurate": 0.6326, "touches": 58.0711, "possession_lost": 12.8307, "dispossessed": 1.202, "duels_lost": 5.278, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.6192, "won_contest": 1.8489, "ball_recovery": 3.3408, "challenges_lost": 0.9785, "fouls": 2.1068, "fouls_drawn": 1.2532, "assist_rate": 0.1284, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3182, "tackles_won": 1.1606, "tackles": 1.5842, "clearances": 0.3601, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4303, "big_chances_missed": 0.2419, "xgot": 0.5515, "offsides": 0.1927, "ball_carries": 22.4232, "total_progression": 69.3919, "progressive_carries": 3.5266, "shots_off_target": 0.9497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.609, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0876, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1148, "creation_factor": 1.176, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0876, "scorer_weight": 0.1054, "squad_weight_total": 2.945, "weight_share": 0.0358, "finishing_factor": 1.1148, "appearance_weight": 0.609, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jonathan David", "weight": 0.8639, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8639, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5239 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.5239, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5239, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4068 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1553, "goal_rate": 0.1296, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5164, "total_shots": 1.4661, "expected_assists": 0.1732, "key_pass": 0.603, "rating": 6.9413, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 40.9824, "accurate_pass": 33.2568, "duels_won": 5.2509, "total_long_balls": 2.3092, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1003, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.7344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.2374, "crosses_total": 1.5406, "crosses_accurate": 0.6326, "touches": 58.0711, "possession_lost": 12.8307, "dispossessed": 1.202, "duels_lost": 5.278, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.6192, "won_contest": 1.8489, "ball_recovery": 3.3408, "challenges_lost": 0.9785, "fouls": 2.1068, "fouls_drawn": 1.2532, "assist_rate": 0.1284, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3182, "tackles_won": 1.1606, "tackles": 1.5842, "clearances": 0.3601, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4303, "big_chances_missed": 0.2419, "xgot": 0.5515, "offsides": 0.1927, "ball_carries": 22.4232, "total_progression": 69.3919, "progressive_carries": 3.5266, "shots_off_target": 0.9497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.609, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0876, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0968, "finishing_factor": 1.1148, "creation_factor": 1.176, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0968, "provider_weight": 0.124, "squad_weight_total": 1.6801, "weight_share": 0.0738, "creation_factor": 1.176, "appearance_weight": 0.609, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.2713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2713, "runner_up": "Marcos Llorente", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1959 } ] } } ] }, "Pablo Barrios": { "player_id": 1142588, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 181, "market_value": 60000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.107, "assist_rate": 0.0649, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0446, "goal_rate": 0.0607, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 7.0465, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 33, "possession_lost": 4.6941, "dispossessed": 0.7319, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 32, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.469, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.38, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0205, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0476, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0186, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0391, "expected_assists": 0.154, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 69, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.111, "expected_assists": 0.0406, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 80, "accurate_pass": 71, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2205, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1045, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 51, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083242, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 36, "interceptions": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083306, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.085, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083241, "match_date": "2026-01-31", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 50, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083107, "match_date": "2026-01-25", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0788, "expected_assists": 0.1905, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 61, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083233, "match_date": "2026-01-18", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1015, "expected_assists": 0.2093, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 5, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083201, "match_date": "2026-01-04", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 21, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 246, "combined_rank_score": 183.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 52.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 315.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0465, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pablo Barrios", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Léo Pereira", "ranking": 241 }, { "player_name": "Andrei Cojuhar", "ranking": 242 }, { "player_name": "Willian Pacho", "ranking": 243 }, { "player_name": "Alex Baena", "ranking": 244 }, { "player_name": "Denzel Dumfries", "ranking": 245 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Joaquín Moya", "ranking": 247 }, { "player_name": "Leonard Pllana", "ranking": 248 }, { "player_name": "Eldor Adhamov", "ranking": 249 }, { "player_name": "Arda Güler", "ranking": 250 }, { "player_name": "David Raum", "ranking": 251 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.773, "history_matches": 27, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 27, "data_confidence": 0.773, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 24.38, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.469, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0163, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 25.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.4347826086956522, "prior_reliability": 0.1533 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (27 historical appearances) to 24.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.47); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 25.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6944, "expected_assists": 0.0665, "assists": 0.0677, "assist_rate": 0.0677, "expected_goals": 0.0338, "goals": 0.0652, "goal_rate": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.1599, "total_shots": 0.4134, "rating": 7.0465, "minutes": 26.2, "total_pass": 27.014, "accurate_pass": 24.7611, "duels_won": 3.1056, "total_long_balls": 1.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8789, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7839, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2774, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2301, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4838, "crosses_total": 0.892, "crosses_accurate": 0.5065, "touches": 34.7093, "possession_lost": 4.9636, "dispossessed": 0.7202, "duels_lost": 2.1713, "aerial_won": 0.4595, "aerial_lost": 0.6122, "interceptions": 0.4194, "tackles_won": 0.5806, "tackles": 0.5806, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6778, "won_contest": 1.2924, "challenges_lost": 0.4535, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7733, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2267, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1254, "total_progression": 33.6079, "progressive_carries": 1.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2535 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1519, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1291, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1097, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0933, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0793, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0674, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-31", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 50.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0573, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-25", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0487, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-18", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0414, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-04", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0352, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.9094, "creative_index": 0.5669, "expectedGoals": 0.0481, "expectedAssists": 0.1053, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3702 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6944372057914734, "model_output": 0.6944, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3946 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0385 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0381 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0372 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0324 } ], "others": 0.1214, "total": 0.6944, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.589339 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.075369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.069444 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.063426 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.055039 } ], "others_margin": 0.192302 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06645315885543823, "model_output": 0.0665, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0031 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0025 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0023 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": 0.0023 } ], "others": 0.0068, "total": 0.0665, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.550439 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.060397 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.046672 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.04006 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.039875 } ], "others_margin": 0.108225 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.06772889196872711, "model_output": 0.0677, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0055 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0052 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0039 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0036 } ], "others": -0.0024, "total": 0.0677, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.313483 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.084408 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.079801 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.060987 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.053009 } ], "others_margin": -0.034957 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03378985449671745, "model_output": 0.0338, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.037 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0018 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": -0.004, "total": 0.0338, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.496897 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.241108 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.087315 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.044541 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.043356 } ], "others_margin": -0.114459 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.06515166908502579, "model_output": 0.0652, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0043 } ], "others": 0.0017, "total": 0.0652, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.228464 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.133583 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.130654 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.127177 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.065236 } ], "others_margin": 0.026137 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.15989968180656433, "model_output": 0.1599, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.122 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0051 } ], "others": -0.007, "total": 0.1599, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.472353 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.075837 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.049426 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.035212 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.030028 } ], "others_margin": -0.043314 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.41339579224586487, "model_output": 0.4134, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3951 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.067 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0924, "total": 0.4134, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.395068 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.067016 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": -0.020169 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.019897 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.017476 } ], "others_margin": -0.092395 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.046478748321533, "model_output": 7.0465, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1149 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0995 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0793 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0365 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0266 } ], "others": 0.0398, "total": 7.0465, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.114901 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.09949 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.079335 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.036453 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.026568 } ], "others_margin": 0.039841 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0163, quality 0.853)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7058, "expected_assists": 0.0675, "assists": 0.0688, "assist_rate": 0.0688, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "goals": 0.0662, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "shots_on_target": 0.1625, "total_shots": 0.4201, "rating": 7.0465, "minutes": 26.2, "total_pass": 27.4543, "accurate_pass": 25.1647, "duels_won": 3.1562, "total_long_balls": 1.3196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8932, "total_own_half_passes": 9.9434, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.4286, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.511, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7362, "crosses_total": 0.9065, "crosses_accurate": 0.5148, "touches": 35.2751, "possession_lost": 5.0445, "dispossessed": 0.7319, "duels_lost": 2.2067, "aerial_won": 0.467, "aerial_lost": 0.6222, "interceptions": 0.4262, "tackles_won": 0.5901, "tackles": 0.5901, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.7051, "won_contest": 1.3135, "challenges_lost": 0.4609, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7859, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2304, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.2741, "total_progression": 34.1557, "progressive_carries": 1.0163, "shots_off_target": 0.2576 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 60000000, "quality_factor": 0.8526, "boost_factor": 1.0163, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0156)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7058, "expected_assists": 0.0675, "assists": 0.0697, "assist_rate": 0.0697, "expected_goals": 0.0343, "goals": 0.0652, "goal_rate": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.162, "total_shots": 0.4156, "rating": 7.0465, "minutes": 26.2, "total_pass": 27.4543, "accurate_pass": 25.1647, "duels_won": 3.1562, "total_long_balls": 1.3196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8932, "total_own_half_passes": 9.9434, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.4286, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.511, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7362, "crosses_total": 0.8944, "crosses_accurate": 0.5148, "touches": 35.2751, "possession_lost": 5.0445, "dispossessed": 0.7319, "duels_lost": 2.2067, "aerial_won": 0.467, "aerial_lost": 0.6222, "interceptions": 0.4255, "tackles_won": 0.5849, "tackles": 0.5901, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.7051, "won_contest": 1.3135, "challenges_lost": 0.4609, "fouls": 0.0039, "fouls_drawn": 0.7835, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2304, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.2741, "total_progression": 34.1557, "progressive_carries": 1.0163, "shots_off_target": 0.2576 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0156, "history_matches": 27, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2911, "prior_reliability": 0.1533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.9065, "after": 0.8944 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.5901, "after": 0.5849 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 26.2 to 24.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.47)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6568, "expected_assists": 0.0628, "assists": 0.0649, "assist_rate": 0.0649, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "goals": 0.0607, "goal_rate": 0.0607, "shots_on_target": 0.1507, "total_shots": 0.3905, "rating": 7.0465, "minutes": 24.38, "total_pass": 25.5472, "accurate_pass": 23.4166, "duels_won": 2.937, "total_long_balls": 1.2279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8312, "total_own_half_passes": 9.2527, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7736, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6431, "crosses_total": 0.8323, "crosses_accurate": 0.479, "touches": 32.8247, "possession_lost": 4.6941, "dispossessed": 0.7319, "duels_lost": 2.0534, "aerial_won": 0.4346, "aerial_lost": 0.6222, "interceptions": 0.3959, "tackles_won": 0.5443, "tackles": 0.5491, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.5867, "won_contest": 1.2223, "challenges_lost": 0.4609, "fouls": 0.0036, "fouls_drawn": 0.7291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2144, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.6299, "total_progression": 31.7831, "progressive_carries": 0.9457, "shots_off_target": 0.2397, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.469, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.38 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 24.38, "projection_minutes": 26.2, "minutes_scale": 0.9305, "appearance_probability": 0.469 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6568, "expected_assists": 0.0628, "assists": 0.0649, "assist_rate": 0.0649, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "goals": 0.0607, "goal_rate": 0.0607, "shots_on_target": 0.1507, "total_shots": 0.3905, "rating": 7.0465, "minutes": 24.38, "total_pass": 25.5472, "accurate_pass": 23.4166, "duels_won": 2.937, "total_long_balls": 1.2279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8312, "total_own_half_passes": 9.2527, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7736, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6431, "crosses_total": 0.8323, "crosses_accurate": 0.479, "touches": 32.8247, "possession_lost": 4.6941, "dispossessed": 0.7319, "duels_lost": 2.0534, "aerial_won": 0.4346, "aerial_lost": 0.6222, "interceptions": 0.3959, "tackles_won": 0.5443, "tackles": 0.5491, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.5867, "won_contest": 1.2223, "challenges_lost": 0.4609, "fouls": 0.0036, "fouls_drawn": 0.7291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2144, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.6299, "total_progression": 31.7831, "progressive_carries": 0.9457, "shots_off_target": 0.2397, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.469, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.38 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.71 (squad xG sum 1.9407, xG scale 1.3980, xA scale 1.7031, team xA 1.76 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6568, "expected_assists": 0.107, "assist_rate": 0.0649, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0446, "goal_rate": 0.0607, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1507, "total_shots": 0.3905, "rating": 7.0465, "minutes": 24.38, "total_pass": 25.5472, "accurate_pass": 23.4166, "duels_won": 2.937, "total_long_balls": 1.2279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8312, "total_own_half_passes": 9.2527, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7736, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6431, "crosses_total": 0.8323, "crosses_accurate": 0.479, "touches": 32.8247, "possession_lost": 4.6941, "dispossessed": 0.7319, "duels_lost": 2.0534, "aerial_won": 0.4346, "aerial_lost": 0.6222, "interceptions": 0.3959, "tackles_won": 0.5443, "tackles": 0.5491, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.5867, "won_contest": 1.2223, "challenges_lost": 0.4609, "fouls": 0.0036, "fouls_drawn": 0.7291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2144, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.6299, "total_progression": 31.7831, "progressive_carries": 0.9457, "shots_off_target": 0.2397, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.469, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.38, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0186 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.713, "squad_xg_sum": 1.9407, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0355, "team_expected_assists": 1.7635, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.398, "xa_scale": 1.7031, "opponent_lambda": 1.163, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.469 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0319, "after": 0.0446 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0628, "after": 0.107 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6568, "expected_assists": 0.107, "assist_rate": 0.0649, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0446, "goal_rate": 0.0607, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1507, "total_shots": 0.3905, "rating": 7.0465, "minutes": 24.38, "total_pass": 25.5472, "accurate_pass": 23.4166, "duels_won": 2.937, "total_long_balls": 1.2279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8312, "total_own_half_passes": 9.2527, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7736, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6431, "crosses_total": 0.8323, "crosses_accurate": 0.479, "touches": 32.8247, "possession_lost": 4.6941, "dispossessed": 0.7319, "duels_lost": 2.0534, "aerial_won": 0.4346, "aerial_lost": 0.6222, "interceptions": 0.3959, "tackles_won": 0.5443, "tackles": 0.5491, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.5867, "won_contest": 1.2223, "challenges_lost": 0.4609, "fouls": 0.0036, "fouls_drawn": 0.7291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2144, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.6299, "total_progression": 31.7831, "progressive_carries": 0.9457, "shots_off_target": 0.2397, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.469, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.38, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0186, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 246, "fifa_rank": 315.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6568, "expected_assists": 0.107, "assist_rate": 0.0649, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0446, "goal_rate": 0.0607, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1507, "total_shots": 0.3905, "rating": 7.0465, "minutes": 24.38, "total_pass": 25.5472, "accurate_pass": 23.4166, "duels_won": 2.937, "total_long_balls": 1.2279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8312, "total_own_half_passes": 9.2527, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7736, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6431, "crosses_total": 0.8323, "crosses_accurate": 0.479, "touches": 32.8247, "possession_lost": 4.6941, "dispossessed": 0.7319, "duels_lost": 2.0534, "aerial_won": 0.4346, "aerial_lost": 0.6222, "interceptions": 0.3959, "tackles_won": 0.5443, "tackles": 0.5491, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.5867, "won_contest": 1.2223, "challenges_lost": 0.4609, "fouls": 0.0036, "fouls_drawn": 0.7291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2144, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.6299, "total_progression": 31.7831, "progressive_carries": 0.9457, "shots_off_target": 0.2397, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.469, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.38, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0205, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0186, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0205, "scorer_weight": 0.0261, "squad_weight_total": 2.945, "weight_share": 0.0089, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.469, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jonathan David", "weight": 0.8639, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8639, "runner_up": "Ademola Lookman", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5239 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Ademola Lookman", "weight": 0.5239, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5239, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4068 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6568, "expected_assists": 0.107, "assist_rate": 0.0649, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0446, "goal_rate": 0.0607, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1507, "total_shots": 0.3905, "rating": 7.0465, "minutes": 24.38, "total_pass": 25.5472, "accurate_pass": 23.4166, "duels_won": 2.937, "total_long_balls": 1.2279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8312, "total_own_half_passes": 9.2527, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7736, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6431, "crosses_total": 0.8323, "crosses_accurate": 0.479, "touches": 32.8247, "possession_lost": 4.6941, "dispossessed": 0.7319, "duels_lost": 2.0534, "aerial_won": 0.4346, "aerial_lost": 0.6222, "interceptions": 0.3959, "tackles_won": 0.5443, "tackles": 0.5491, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.5867, "won_contest": 1.2223, "challenges_lost": 0.4609, "fouls": 0.0036, "fouls_drawn": 0.7291, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2144, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.6299, "total_progression": 31.7831, "progressive_carries": 0.9457, "shots_off_target": 0.2397, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.469, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.38, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.623, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0205, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0476, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0186, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0476, "provider_weight": 0.0511, "squad_weight_total": 1.6801, "weight_share": 0.0304, "creation_factor": 1.0186, "appearance_weight": 0.469, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.2713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2713, "runner_up": "Marcos Llorente", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1959 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.71, "expected_assists": 1.76, "total_shots": 19, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 532, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.99, "possession_estimated_pct": 52.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mariano Díaz", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 285000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Dávid Hancko", "Marc Pubill" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.787, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1784, "xg_multiplier": 0.6816, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dávid Hancko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Marc Pubill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mariano Díaz (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dávid Hancko and Marc Pubill in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €42M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.68 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.178 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Toni Martínez", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Dávid Hancko", "Marc Pubill" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.787, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2497, "xg_multiplier": 0.7165, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dávid Hancko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Marc Pubill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Toni Martínez (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dávid Hancko and Marc Pubill in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€7M vs €42M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.72 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.250 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Abderrahman Rebbach", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2400000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Dávid Hancko", "Marc Pubill" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.787, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0524, "xg_multiplier": 0.658, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dávid Hancko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Marc Pubill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abderrahman Rebbach (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dávid Hancko and Marc Pubill in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €42M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.66 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.052 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jonny Otto", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Cristian Romero" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.764, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.182, "xg_contribution": 0.0117, "xg_multiplier": 0.6792, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Cristian Romero", "role": "RB", "market_value": 37000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.818 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jonny Otto (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Cristian Romero in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €37M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.68 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.012 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Antonio Blanco", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Giuliano Simeone" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.8, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.301, "xg_contribution": 0.0506, "xg_multiplier": 0.825, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giuliano Simeone", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.699 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antonio Blanco (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Giuliano Simeone in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€10M vs €44M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.83 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ángel Pérez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2800000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Giuliano Simeone" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.8, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.314, "xg_contribution": 0.1113, "xg_multiplier": 0.8, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giuliano Simeone", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.686 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ángel Pérez (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Giuliano Simeone in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €44M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.80 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.111 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Ibáñez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 4099999, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.451, "defenders": [ "Giuliano Simeone" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.8, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.306, "xg_contribution": 0.089, "xg_multiplier": 0.7883, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giuliano Simeone", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.694 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Ibáñez (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Giuliano Simeone in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €44M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.79 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.089 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Denis Suárez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1100000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Giuliano Simeone" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.8, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.285, "xg_contribution": 0.0704, "xg_multiplier": 0.7579, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giuliano Simeone", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.715 } ], "duel_analysis": "Denis Suárez (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Giuliano Simeone in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €44M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.76 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.070 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 19400000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.625, "defenders": [ "Nahuel Tenaglia", "Antonio Sivera" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.455, "duel_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.313, "xg_contribution": 0.2567, "xg_multiplier": 1.0196, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.687 }, { "player": "Antonio Sivera", "role": "GK", "market_value": 5600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.687 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alejandro Grimaldo (LW) is evenly matched against Nahuel Tenaglia and Antonio Sivera in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 31%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.257 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jonathan David", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 29000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.71, "defenders": [ "Nahuel Tenaglia", "Nicolás Valentini" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.304, "xg_contribution": 0.5359, "xg_multiplier": 1.1528, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696 }, { "player": "Nicolás Valentini", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jonathan David (ST) is slightly favored against Nahuel Tenaglia and Nicolás Valentini in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€29M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.15 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.536 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ademola Lookman", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Nahuel Tenaglia", "Nicolás Valentini" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.321, "xg_contribution": 0.3864, "xg_multiplier": 1.1772, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679 }, { "player": "Nicolás Valentini", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ademola Lookman (ST) is slightly favored against Nahuel Tenaglia and Nicolás Valentini in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.18 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.386 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Alex Baena", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 48000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.817, "defenders": [ "Nahuel Tenaglia", "Nicolás Valentini" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.328, "xg_contribution": 0.2328, "xg_multiplier": 1.1882, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.672 }, { "player": "Nicolás Valentini", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.672 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alex Baena (ST) is slightly favored against Nahuel Tenaglia and Nicolás Valentini in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€48M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.19 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.233 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Giuliano Simeone", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Antonio Blanco" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.519, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.539, "xg_contribution": 0.1298, "xg_multiplier": 1.175, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antonio Blanco", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 9700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.461 } ], "duel_analysis": "Giuliano Simeone (CDM) is slightly favored against Antonio Blanco in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €10M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.17 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.130 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Johnny Cardoso", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 18700000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.618, "defenders": [ "Antonio Blanco" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.519, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.51, "xg_contribution": 0.0323, "xg_multiplier": 1.1325, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antonio Blanco", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 9700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.49 } ], "duel_analysis": "Johnny Cardoso (CDM) is slightly favored against Antonio Blanco in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.13 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.486, "away_midfield_power": 0.681, "home_creative_power": 0.458, "away_creative_power": 0.641, "home_defensive_power": 0.412, "away_defensive_power": 0.603, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.417, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Ángel Pérez", "Denis Suárez", "Antonio Blanco", "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Giuliano Simeone", "Johnny Cardoso", "Alejandro Grimaldo" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 47.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 52.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.2, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.3, "home_throughball_threat": 2.0, "away_throughball_threat": 2.5, "key_personal_duel": "Antonio Blanco vs Giuliano Simeone", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.972, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.034 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "5-3-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.163, "away_lambda": 2.713, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Mariano Díaz": { "opponents": [ "Dávid Hancko", "Marc Pubill" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Toni Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Dávid Hancko", "Marc Pubill" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Abderrahman Rebbach": { "opponents": [ "Dávid Hancko", "Marc Pubill" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jonny Otto": { "opponents": [ "Cristian Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Antonio Blanco": { "opponents": [ "Giuliano Simeone", "Johnny Cardoso" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ángel Pérez": { "opponents": [ "Giuliano Simeone", "Johnny Cardoso" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo Ibáñez": { "opponents": [ "Giuliano Simeone", "Alejandro Grimaldo" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Denis Suárez": { "opponents": [ "Giuliano Simeone" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nahuel Tenaglia": { "opponents": [ "Alejandro Grimaldo", "Jonathan David", "Ademola Lookman", "Alex Baena" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Antonio Sivera": { "opponents": [ "Alejandro Grimaldo" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nicolás Valentini": { "opponents": [ "Jonathan David", "Ademola Lookman", "Alex Baena" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Dávid Hancko": { "opponents": [ "Mariano Díaz", "Toni Martínez", "Abderrahman Rebbach" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marc Pubill": { "opponents": [ "Mariano Díaz", "Toni Martínez", "Abderrahman Rebbach" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Cristian Romero": { "opponents": [ "Jonny Otto" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Giuliano Simeone": { "opponents": [ "Antonio Blanco", "Ángel Pérez", "Pablo Ibáñez", "Denis Suárez" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alejandro Grimaldo": { "opponents": [ "Nahuel Tenaglia", "Antonio Sivera", "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jonathan David": { "opponents": [ "Nahuel Tenaglia", "Nicolás Valentini" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ademola Lookman": { "opponents": [ "Nahuel Tenaglia", "Nicolás Valentini" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alex Baena": { "opponents": [ "Nahuel Tenaglia", "Nicolás Valentini" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Johnny Cardoso": { "opponents": [ "Antonio Blanco", "Ángel Pérez" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jan Oblak": { "opponents": [ "Toni Martínez", "Abderrahman Rebbach" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Marcos Llorente": { "opponents": [ "Mariano Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Antonio Blanco vs Giuliano Simeone). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.81, Away: 1.57. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9481, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9975, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1191, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9017, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0209, "home_midfield_factor": 0.972, "away_midfield_factor": 1.034, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4526, "away_avg_quality": 0.735, "avg_quality_gap": -0.2824, "squad_value_gap_log": -2.0419, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.8207, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.7325, "elite_count_gap": -4, "combined_quality_gap": -0.5671, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.3119, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1815, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8135, "n_duels": 8, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9476 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.972, "result": 0.9211 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9211 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.0593 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9489, "result": 1.0051 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9481, "result": 0.953 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9017, "result": 0.8593 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0, "result": 0.8593 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.8593, "result": 0.8593, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.5671, "factor": 0.8185, "pre": 0.8593, "result": 0.7034 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7034 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1566, "result": 0.8596 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 2.8765, "result": 1.3195 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.3195, "result": 1.319, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.319, "result": 1.319, "available": false }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9533, "pre": 1.319, "result": 1.257 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 1.257 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9253, "input_total": 3.876, "result": 1.1631 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.1631, "result": 1.163, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.163 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.5739, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.5179 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.034, "result": 1.5695 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.5695 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.5695 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0032, "result": 1.5746 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9975, "result": 1.5706 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0209, "result": 1.6033 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1191, "result": 1.7224 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.7224, "result": 1.7224, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.5671, "factor": 1.3119, "pre": 1.7224, "result": 2.2597 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 2.2597 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1999, "result": 2.4599 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 2.8864, "result": 2.5571 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 2.5571, "result": 2.557, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 2.557, "result": 2.557, "available": false }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1468, "pre": 2.557, "result": 2.932 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 2.932 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9253, "input_total": 3.876, "result": 2.7129 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 2.7129, "result": 2.713, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 2.713 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1566, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1999, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_squad": "Atlético Madrid", "home_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.33, "away_goals_per90": 2.333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.877, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.886, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.5671, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1468, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9533, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.319, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 2.557, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.3195, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 2.5571, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.163, "final_away_lambda": 2.713 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 6, "opponent_position": 2, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9489, "attack_index": 1.068, "defense_concede_index": 0.83, "form_multiplier": 0.978, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.63, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.26, "team_ppg": 1.48, "opponent_ppg": 1.87 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 2, "opponent_position": 6, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0032, "attack_index": 1.126, "defense_concede_index": 0.886, "form_multiplier": 1.022, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.71, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.35, "team_ppg": 1.87, "opponent_ppg": 1.48 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Alavés vs Atlético Madrid. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 5-3-2 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.319, Away 2.557). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.163, Away 2.713 (most likely score 1-2).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 8, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_squad": "Atlético Madrid", "home_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.33, "away_goals_per90": 2.333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.877, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.886, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.163, "away_lambda": 2.713, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.319, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 2.557 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-10T13:32:56Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }