{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261010", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-2", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0884, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Brighton", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2495, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0884 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1169 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0847 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0787 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0752 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.057, "0-1": 0.0847, "0-2": 0.0652, "0-3": 0.0331, "0-4": 0.0126, "0-5": 0.0038, "0-6": 0.001, "1-0": 0.0752, "1-1": 0.1169, "1-2": 0.0884, "1-3": 0.0449, "1-4": 0.0171, "1-5": 0.0052, "1-6": 0.0013, "2-0": 0.0516, "2-1": 0.0787, "2-2": 0.0599, "2-3": 0.0304, "2-4": 0.0116, "2-5": 0.0035, "2-6": 0.0009, "3-0": 0.0233, "3-1": 0.0356, "3-2": 0.0271, "3-3": 0.0138, "3-4": 0.0052, "3-5": 0.0016, "4-0": 0.0079, "4-1": 0.0121, "4-2": 0.0092, "4-3": 0.0047, "4-4": 0.0018, "4-5": 0.0005, "5-0": 0.0021, "5-1": 0.0033, "5-2": 0.0025, "5-3": 0.0013, "6-1": 0.0007, "6-2": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3377, "draw": 0.2495, "away_win": 0.4128 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5494, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4506, "btts_yes": 0.5815, "btts_no": 0.4185, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2178, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2577 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.76, "MCR": 7.01, "ATR": 6.71, "GK": 6.98 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.01, "MCR": 6.97, "ATR": 6.87, "GK": 7.02 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Sunderland vs Brighton. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Wilson Isidor, Charalampos Kostoulas, Pascal Groß", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Noah Sadiki vs Yasin Ayari will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.71, Away: 0.93. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.71, "home_lambda": 1.356, "away_lambda": 1.524, "h2h": { "available": false, "meetings": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_wins": 0, "draws": 0, "home_multiplier": 1.0, "away_multiplier": 1.0 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1169, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3377, "draw": 0.2495, "away_win": 0.4128 }, "favorite": "Brighton", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4128, "fair_spread": -0.168, "fair_total": 2.88, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Sunderland", "estimate": 1.356, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Brighton", "estimate": 1.524, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5494, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5815, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Sunderland", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2178, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Brighton", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2577, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Wilson Isidor (Sunderland)", "estimate": 0.2663, "probability": 0.2338, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Charalampos Kostoulas (Brighton)", "estimate": 0.3168, "probability": 0.2715, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Granit Xhaka (Sunderland)", "estimate": 0.197, "probability": 0.1788, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Maxim De Cuyper (Brighton)", "estimate": 0.2299, "probability": 0.2054, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.88, "expected_total_shots": 31, "expected_total_passes": 926, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.3, "possession_home_pct": 50.2, "possession_away_pct": 49.8, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Brighton", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4128, "script": "Brighton is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.17 goals and fair total 2.88.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Sunderland must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Brighton lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Brighton chance creation leans on Charalampos Kostoulas against Kevin Danso, Thomas Meunier in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Sunderland: starters carry the main goal usage through Wilson Isidor; bench watchlist: Brian Brobbey, Habib Diarra, Malick Fofana.", "Brighton: starters carry the main goal usage through Charalampos Kostoulas, Pascal Groß; bench watchlist: Yankuba Minteh, Evan Ferguson.", "Assist usage should flow through Thomas Meunier, Maxim De Cuyper; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Brighton tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 1.44 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Sunderland is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Brighton.", "Sunderland wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Sunderland": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Robin Roefs": { "player_id": 1012928, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 193, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0986, "rating": 6.978, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 24, "total_long_balls": 20, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 46, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.3945, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 12.7989, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5239, "shots_faced": 14.5, "expected_saves": 3.55, "high_pressure_saves": 1.22, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas, Pascal Groß", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 29, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -2.774 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363646, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0857 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363260, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0749 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, 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"league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0063 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": 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"league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023932, "match_date": "2026-04-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0048, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 26, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -3.6679 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1022, "combined_rank_score": 454.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": 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"market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0068, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sunderland", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 40 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Sunderland, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.9181, "goals_prevented": 0.0979, "rating": 6.978, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 36.3735, "accurate_pass": 23.9065, "total_long_balls": 19.491, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1473, "touches": 45.2801, "clearances": 1.2524, "ball_recovery": 7.2839, "high_claims": 0.9339, "punches": 1.3851, "aerial_won": 0.4129, "sweeper_actions": 0.5167, 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}, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 5.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.342, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9307, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.3369, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": -0.0742, 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"history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0096)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9144, "goals_prevented": 0.0986, "rating": 6.978, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 36.6208, "accurate_pass": 24.0691, "total_long_balls": 19.6235, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1959, "touches": 45.588, "clearances": 1.2609, "ball_recovery": 7.3334, "high_claims": 0.9403, "punches": 1.3945, "aerial_won": 0.4157, "sweeper_actions": 0.5202, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5202, "saves_inside_box": 1.6195, "possession_lost": 12.7989, "duels_won": 0.9751, "duels_lost": 0.0072, "total_contest": 0.0945, "won_contest": 0.0945, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5568, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5104, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.24 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0096, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9379, "after": 2.9144 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9144, "goals_prevented": 0.0986, "rating": 6.978, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 36.6208, "accurate_pass": 24.0691, "total_long_balls": 19.6235, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1959, "touches": 45.588, "clearances": 1.2609, "ball_recovery": 7.3334, "high_claims": 0.9403, "punches": 1.3945, "aerial_won": 0.4157, "sweeper_actions": 0.5202, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5202, "saves_inside_box": 1.6195, "possession_lost": 12.7989, "duels_won": 0.9751, "duels_lost": 0.0072, "total_contest": 0.0945, "won_contest": 0.0945, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5568, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5104, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.24 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.037819 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.019039 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.01324 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.012893 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.011242 } ], "others_margin": 0.001478 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0028, quality 0.581)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1936, "tackles": 1.9854, "tackles_won": 1.2392, "clearances": 3.8504, "aerial_won": 1.6426, "total_shots": 1.0826, "rating": 6.8319, "minutes": 87.83, "total_pass": 36.7877, "accurate_pass": 29.0244, "duels_won": 5.5919, "total_long_balls": 3.4777, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5296, "total_own_half_passes": 16.434, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.6915, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3538, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.333, "crosses_total": 3.2142, "crosses_accurate": 0.8798, "touches": 62.7061, "possession_lost": 14.1477, "dispossessed": 0.441, "duels_lost": 4.9315, "aerial_lost": 2.3703, "total_contest": 0.9325, "won_contest": 0.574, "ball_recovery": 4.1342, "challenges_lost": 0.595, "fouls": 1.2948, "fouls_drawn": 0.7031, "blocks": 0.5938, "goals": 0.0854, "goal_rate": 0.0854, "assists": 0.0417, "assist_rate": 0.0417, "expected_goals": 0.1371, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "shots_on_target": 0.2133, "big_chances_created": 0.2365, "xgot": 0.1447, "ball_carries": 14.7047, "total_progression": 60.7282, "progressive_carries": 1.1734, "key_pass": 0.6888, "shots_off_target": 0.8693 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15200000, "quality_factor": 0.5814, "boost_factor": 1.0028, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0053)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1924, "tackles": 1.9854, "tackles_won": 1.2326, "clearances": 3.8504, "aerial_won": 1.6426, "total_shots": 1.0769, "rating": 6.8319, "minutes": 87.83, "total_pass": 36.7877, "accurate_pass": 29.0244, "duels_won": 5.5919, "total_long_balls": 3.4777, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5296, "total_own_half_passes": 16.434, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.6915, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3538, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.333, "crosses_total": 3.2024, "crosses_accurate": 0.8798, "touches": 62.7061, "possession_lost": 14.1477, "dispossessed": 0.441, "duels_lost": 4.9315, "aerial_lost": 2.3703, "total_contest": 0.9325, "won_contest": 0.574, "ball_recovery": 4.1342, "challenges_lost": 0.595, "fouls": 1.288, "fouls_drawn": 0.6994, "blocks": 0.5938, "goals": 0.0849, "goal_rate": 0.0849, "assists": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "expected_goals": 0.1371, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "big_chances_created": 0.2365, "xgot": 0.1447, "ball_carries": 14.7047, "total_progression": 60.7282, "progressive_carries": 1.1734, "key_pass": 0.6888, "shots_off_target": 0.8693 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0053, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9759, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.2142, "after": 3.2024 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.2948, "after": 1.288 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.2392, "after": 1.2326 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0826, "after": 1.0769 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1924, "tackles": 1.9854, "tackles_won": 1.2326, "clearances": 3.8504, "aerial_won": 1.6426, "total_shots": 1.0815, "rating": 6.8319, "minutes": 87.83, "total_pass": 36.7877, "accurate_pass": 29.0244, "duels_won": 5.5919, "total_long_balls": 3.4777, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5296, "total_own_half_passes": 16.434, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.6915, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3538, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.333, "crosses_total": 3.2024, "crosses_accurate": 0.8798, "touches": 62.7061, "possession_lost": 14.1477, "dispossessed": 0.441, "duels_lost": 4.9315, "aerial_lost": 2.3703, "total_contest": 0.9325, "won_contest": 0.574, "ball_recovery": 4.1342, "challenges_lost": 0.595, "fouls": 1.288, "fouls_drawn": 0.6994, "blocks": 0.5938, "goals": 0.0849, "goal_rate": 0.0849, "assists": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "expected_goals": 0.1371, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "big_chances_created": 0.2365, "xgot": 0.1447, "ball_carries": 14.7047, "total_progression": 60.7282, "progressive_carries": 1.1734, "key_pass": 0.6888, "shots_off_target": 0.8693 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1924, "tackles": 1.9854, "tackles_won": 1.2326, "clearances": 3.8504, "aerial_won": 1.6426, "total_shots": 1.0815, "rating": 6.8319, "minutes": 87.83, "total_pass": 36.7877, "accurate_pass": 29.0244, "duels_won": 5.5919, "total_long_balls": 3.4777, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5296, "total_own_half_passes": 16.434, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.6915, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3538, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.333, "crosses_total": 3.2024, "crosses_accurate": 0.8798, "touches": 62.7061, "possession_lost": 14.1477, "dispossessed": 0.441, "duels_lost": 4.9315, "aerial_lost": 2.3703, "total_contest": 0.9325, "won_contest": 0.574, "ball_recovery": 4.1342, "challenges_lost": 0.595, "fouls": 1.288, "fouls_drawn": 0.6994, "blocks": 0.5938, "goals": 0.0849, "goal_rate": 0.0849, "assists": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "expected_goals": 0.1371, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "big_chances_created": 0.2365, "xgot": 0.1447, "ball_carries": 14.7047, "total_progression": 60.7282, "progressive_carries": 1.1734, "key_pass": 0.6888, "shots_off_target": 0.8693, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "matchup_zone": "Shape 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"blocks": 0.5938, "goal_rate": 0.0849, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1523, "expected_assists": 0.1041, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "big_chances_created": 0.2365, "xgot": 0.1607, "ball_carries": 14.7047, "total_progression": 60.7282, "progressive_carries": 1.1734, "key_pass": 0.6888, "shots_off_target": 0.8693, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.356, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2208, "squad_xa_sum": 0.945, "team_expected_assists": 1.0496, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7741, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1107, "xa_scale": 1.1107, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1371, "after": 0.1523 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0937, "after": 0.1041 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1924, "tackles": 1.9854, "tackles_won": 1.2326, "clearances": 3.8504, "aerial_won": 1.6426, "total_shots": 1.0815, "rating": 6.8319, "minutes": 87.83, "total_pass": 36.7877, "accurate_pass": 29.0244, "duels_won": 5.5919, "total_long_balls": 3.4777, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5296, "total_own_half_passes": 16.434, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.6915, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3538, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.333, "crosses_total": 3.2024, "crosses_accurate": 0.8798, "touches": 62.7061, "possession_lost": 14.1477, "dispossessed": 0.441, "duels_lost": 4.9315, "aerial_lost": 2.3703, "total_contest": 0.9325, "won_contest": 0.574, "ball_recovery": 4.1342, "challenges_lost": 0.595, "fouls": 1.288, "fouls_drawn": 0.6994, "blocks": 0.5938, "goal_rate": 0.0849, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1523, "expected_assists": 0.1041, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "big_chances_created": 0.2365, "xgot": 0.1607, "ball_carries": 14.7047, "total_progression": 60.7282, "progressive_carries": 1.1734, "key_pass": 0.6888, "shots_off_target": 0.8693, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 425, "fifa_rank": 501.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1924, "tackles": 1.9854, "tackles_won": 1.2326, "clearances": 3.8504, "aerial_won": 1.6426, "total_shots": 1.0815, "rating": 6.8319, "minutes": 87.83, "total_pass": 36.7877, "accurate_pass": 29.0244, "duels_won": 5.5919, "total_long_balls": 3.4777, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5296, "total_own_half_passes": 16.434, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.6915, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3538, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.333, "crosses_total": 3.2024, "crosses_accurate": 0.8798, "touches": 62.7061, "possession_lost": 14.1477, "dispossessed": 0.441, "duels_lost": 4.9315, "aerial_lost": 2.3703, "total_contest": 0.9325, "won_contest": 0.574, "ball_recovery": 4.1342, "challenges_lost": 0.595, "fouls": 1.288, "fouls_drawn": 0.6994, "blocks": 0.5938, "goal_rate": 0.0849, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "assists": 0, 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"runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2324 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1924, "tackles": 1.9854, "tackles_won": 1.2326, "clearances": 3.8504, "aerial_won": 1.6426, "total_shots": 1.0815, "rating": 6.8319, "minutes": 87.83, "total_pass": 36.7877, "accurate_pass": 29.0244, "duels_won": 5.5919, "total_long_balls": 3.4777, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5296, "total_own_half_passes": 16.434, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.6915, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3538, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.333, "crosses_total": 3.2024, "crosses_accurate": 0.8798, "touches": 62.7061, "possession_lost": 14.1477, "dispossessed": 0.441, "duels_lost": 4.9315, "aerial_lost": 2.3703, "total_contest": 0.9325, "won_contest": 0.574, "ball_recovery": 4.1342, "challenges_lost": 0.595, "fouls": 1.288, "fouls_drawn": 0.6994, 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"away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0677, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 50, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363646, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0827, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, 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"history_matches", "contribution": 0.0132 } ], "others": 0.0573, "total": 0.7011, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.112475 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.064671 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031061 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.013356 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.013204 } ], "others_margin": 0.057276 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8360676765441895, "model_output": 6.8361, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0292 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0252 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0219 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0023, "total": 6.8361, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.029207 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025192 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.021929 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.014275 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.013093 } ], "others_margin": -0.002375 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0056, quality 0.625)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1227, "tackles": 1.19, "tackles_won": 0.6838, "clearances": 6.127, "aerial_won": 2.5461, "total_shots": 0.705, "rating": 6.8361, "minutes": 89.02, "total_pass": 52.1937, "accurate_pass": 44.4587, "duels_won": 4.8304, "total_long_balls": 6.0944, "accurate_long_balls": 2.23, "total_own_half_passes": 33.6145, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.064, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5793, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3948, "crosses_total": 0.2714, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.4063, "possession_lost": 10.9103, "dispossessed": 0.0956, "duels_lost": 4.1241, "aerial_lost": 2.4072, "total_contest": 0.147, "won_contest": 0.1247, "ball_recovery": 2.6735, "challenges_lost": 0.3728, "fouls": 1.2261, "fouls_drawn": 0.8749, "blocks": 0.706, "goals": 0.0, 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31.064, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5793, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3948, "crosses_total": 0.2714, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.4063, "possession_lost": 10.9103, "dispossessed": 0.0956, "duels_lost": 4.1241, "aerial_lost": 2.4072, "total_contest": 0.147, "won_contest": 0.1247, "ball_recovery": 2.6735, "challenges_lost": 0.3728, "fouls": 1.2261, "fouls_drawn": 0.8749, "blocks": 0.706, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0448, "expected_assists": 0.0283, "shots_on_target": 0.2423, "big_chances_created": 0.0503, "xgot": 0.0244, "ball_carries": 17.9462, "total_progression": 65.8618, "progressive_carries": 0.7863, "key_pass": 0.5739, "shots_off_target": 0.4627 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1227, "tackles": 1.19, "tackles_won": 0.6838, "clearances": 6.127, "aerial_won": 2.5461, "total_shots": 0.705, "rating": 6.8361, "minutes": 89.02, "total_pass": 52.1937, "accurate_pass": 44.4587, "duels_won": 4.8304, "total_long_balls": 6.0944, "accurate_long_balls": 2.23, "total_own_half_passes": 33.6145, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.064, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5793, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3948, "crosses_total": 0.2714, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.4063, "possession_lost": 10.9103, "dispossessed": 0.0956, "duels_lost": 4.1241, "aerial_lost": 2.4072, "total_contest": 0.147, "won_contest": 0.1247, "ball_recovery": 2.6735, "challenges_lost": 0.3728, "fouls": 1.2261, "fouls_drawn": 0.8749, "blocks": 0.706, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0448, "expected_assists": 0.0283, "shots_on_target": 0.2423, "big_chances_created": 0.0503, "xgot": 0.0244, "ball_carries": 17.9462, "total_progression": 65.8618, "progressive_carries": 0.7863, "key_pass": 0.5739, "shots_off_target": 0.4627, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.76, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.36 (squad xG sum 1.2208, xG scale 1.1107, xA scale 1.1107, team xA 1.05 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1227, "tackles": 1.19, "tackles_won": 0.6838, "clearances": 6.127, "aerial_won": 2.5461, "total_shots": 0.705, "rating": 6.8361, "minutes": 89.02, "total_pass": 52.1937, "accurate_pass": 44.4587, "duels_won": 4.8304, "total_long_balls": 6.0944, "accurate_long_balls": 2.23, "total_own_half_passes": 33.6145, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.064, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5793, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3948, "crosses_total": 0.2714, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.4063, "possession_lost": 10.9103, "dispossessed": 0.0956, "duels_lost": 4.1241, "aerial_lost": 2.4072, "total_contest": 0.147, "won_contest": 0.1247, "ball_recovery": 2.6735, "challenges_lost": 0.3728, "fouls": 1.2261, "fouls_drawn": 0.8749, "blocks": 0.706, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0498, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "shots_on_target": 0.2423, "big_chances_created": 0.0503, "xgot": 0.0271, "ball_carries": 17.9462, "total_progression": 65.8618, "progressive_carries": 0.7863, "key_pass": 0.5739, "shots_off_target": 0.4627, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, 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1.1227, "tackles": 1.19, "tackles_won": 0.6838, "clearances": 6.127, "aerial_won": 2.5461, "total_shots": 0.705, "rating": 6.8361, "minutes": 89.02, "total_pass": 52.1937, "accurate_pass": 44.4587, "duels_won": 4.8304, "total_long_balls": 6.0944, "accurate_long_balls": 2.23, "total_own_half_passes": 33.6145, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.064, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5793, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3948, "crosses_total": 0.2714, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.4063, "possession_lost": 10.9103, "dispossessed": 0.0956, "duels_lost": 4.1241, "aerial_lost": 2.4072, "total_contest": 0.147, "won_contest": 0.1247, "ball_recovery": 2.6735, "challenges_lost": 0.3728, "fouls": 1.2261, "fouls_drawn": 0.8749, "blocks": 0.706, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0498, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "shots_on_target": 0.2423, "big_chances_created": 0.0503, "xgot": 0.0271, "ball_carries": 17.9462, "total_progression": 65.8618, 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79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1227, "tackles": 1.19, "tackles_won": 0.6838, "clearances": 6.127, "aerial_won": 2.5461, "total_shots": 0.705, "rating": 6.8361, "minutes": 89.02, "total_pass": 52.1937, "accurate_pass": 44.4587, "duels_won": 4.8304, "total_long_balls": 6.0944, "accurate_long_balls": 2.23, "total_own_half_passes": 33.6145, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.064, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5793, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3948, "crosses_total": 0.2714, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.4063, "possession_lost": 10.9103, "dispossessed": 0.0956, "duels_lost": 4.1241, "aerial_lost": 2.4072, "total_contest": 0.147, "won_contest": 0.1247, "ball_recovery": 2.6735, "challenges_lost": 0.3728, "fouls": 1.2261, "fouls_drawn": 0.8749, "blocks": 0.706, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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"weight_share": 0.0313, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Wilson Isidor", "weight": 0.2561, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2561, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2324 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1227, "tackles": 1.19, "tackles_won": 0.6838, "clearances": 6.127, "aerial_won": 2.5461, "total_shots": 0.705, "rating": 6.8361, "minutes": 89.02, "total_pass": 52.1937, "accurate_pass": 44.4587, "duels_won": 4.8304, "total_long_balls": 6.0944, "accurate_long_balls": 2.23, "total_own_half_passes": 33.6145, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.064, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5793, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3948, "crosses_total": 0.2714, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, 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"total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 17, "aerial_won": 8, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1212, "combined_rank_score": 530.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 552.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8182, "sofascore_appearances": 33.0, "fifa_rank": 509.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7536, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Omar Alderete", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Carlos Miguel", "ranking": 1207 }, { 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"name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.5313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5222 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2329 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2063 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1462 } ], "others": 0.1481, "total": 5.2384, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.143179 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123194 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.050415 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.042612 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.029136 } ], "others_margin": 0.028693 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 2.8022801876068115, "model_output": 2.8023, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": 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"importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0579 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0504 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0239, "total": 0.4716, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057901 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.050354 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.014265 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.013374 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.010845 } ], "others_margin": -0.023864 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7535834312438965, "model_output": 6.7536, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0106 } ], "others": -0.0067, "total": 6.7536, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028339 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.013684 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.011311 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010925 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010605 } ], "others_margin": -0.006674 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0023, quality 0.566)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9502, "tackles": 1.1439, "tackles_won": 0.6191, "clearances": 5.2504, "aerial_won": 2.8087, "total_shots": 0.4727, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 35.6765, "accurate_pass": 27.6122, "duels_won": 4.443, "total_long_balls": 4.7096, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8589, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4743, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.126, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2023, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4863, "crosses_total": 0.2401, "crosses_accurate": 0.0799, "touches": 48.8201, "possession_lost": 9.5442, "dispossessed": 0.1136, "duels_lost": 3.6818, "aerial_lost": 2.0989, "total_contest": 0.3814, "won_contest": 0.3376, "ball_recovery": 2.8208, "challenges_lost": 0.1232, "fouls": 1.3024, "fouls_drawn": 0.3915, "blocks": 0.7088, "goals": 0.0022, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0364, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "shots_on_target": 0.2122, "big_chances_created": 0.0162, "xgot": 0.0334, "ball_carries": 14.7029, "total_progression": 66.6093, "progressive_carries": 0.8406, "key_pass": 0.169, "shots_off_target": 0.2605 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13800000, "quality_factor": 0.566, "boost_factor": 1.0023, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0017)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9486, "tackles": 1.1439, "tackles_won": 0.6181, "clearances": 5.2504, "aerial_won": 2.8087, "total_shots": 0.4719, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 35.6765, "accurate_pass": 27.6122, "duels_won": 4.443, "total_long_balls": 4.7096, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8589, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4743, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.126, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2023, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4863, "crosses_total": 0.2397, "crosses_accurate": 0.0799, "touches": 48.8201, "possession_lost": 9.5442, "dispossessed": 0.1136, "duels_lost": 3.6818, "aerial_lost": 2.0989, "total_contest": 0.3814, "won_contest": 0.3376, "ball_recovery": 2.8208, "challenges_lost": 0.1232, "fouls": 1.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.3908, "blocks": 0.7088, "goals": 0.0022, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0364, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "shots_on_target": 0.2118, "big_chances_created": 0.0162, "xgot": 0.0334, "ball_carries": 14.7029, "total_progression": 66.6093, "progressive_carries": 0.8406, "key_pass": 0.169, "shots_off_target": 0.2605 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0017, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8679, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9486, "tackles": 1.1439, "tackles_won": 0.6181, "clearances": 5.2504, "aerial_won": 2.8087, "total_shots": 0.4723, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 35.6765, "accurate_pass": 27.6122, "duels_won": 4.443, "total_long_balls": 4.7096, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8589, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4743, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.126, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2023, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4863, "crosses_total": 0.2397, "crosses_accurate": 0.0799, "touches": 48.8201, "possession_lost": 9.5442, "dispossessed": 0.1136, "duels_lost": 3.6818, "aerial_lost": 2.0989, "total_contest": 0.3814, "won_contest": 0.3376, "ball_recovery": 2.8208, "challenges_lost": 0.1232, "fouls": 1.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.3908, "blocks": 0.7088, "goals": 0.0022, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0364, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "shots_on_target": 0.2118, "big_chances_created": 0.0162, "xgot": 0.0334, "ball_carries": 14.7029, "total_progression": 66.6093, "progressive_carries": 0.8406, "key_pass": 0.169, "shots_off_target": 0.2605 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9486, "tackles": 1.1439, "tackles_won": 0.6181, "clearances": 5.2504, "aerial_won": 2.8087, "total_shots": 0.4723, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 35.6765, "accurate_pass": 27.6122, "duels_won": 4.443, "total_long_balls": 4.7096, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8589, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4743, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.126, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2023, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4863, "crosses_total": 0.2397, "crosses_accurate": 0.0799, "touches": 48.8201, "possession_lost": 9.5442, "dispossessed": 0.1136, "duels_lost": 3.6818, "aerial_lost": 2.0989, "total_contest": 0.3814, "won_contest": 0.3376, "ball_recovery": 2.8208, "challenges_lost": 0.1232, "fouls": 1.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.3908, "blocks": 0.7088, "goals": 0.0022, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0364, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "shots_on_target": 0.2118, "big_chances_created": 0.0162, "xgot": 0.0334, "ball_carries": 14.7029, "total_progression": 66.6093, "progressive_carries": 0.8406, "key_pass": 0.169, "shots_off_target": 0.2605, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.63, "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.36 (squad xG sum 1.2208, xG scale 1.1107, xA scale 1.1107, team xA 1.05 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9486, "tackles": 1.1439, "tackles_won": 0.6181, "clearances": 5.2504, "aerial_won": 2.8087, "total_shots": 0.4723, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 35.6765, "accurate_pass": 27.6122, "duels_won": 4.443, "total_long_balls": 4.7096, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8589, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4743, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.126, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2023, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4863, "crosses_total": 0.2397, "crosses_accurate": 0.0799, "touches": 48.8201, "possession_lost": 9.5442, "dispossessed": 0.1136, "duels_lost": 3.6818, "aerial_lost": 2.0989, "total_contest": 0.3814, "won_contest": 0.3376, "ball_recovery": 2.8208, "challenges_lost": 0.1232, "fouls": 1.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.3908, "blocks": 0.7088, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0404, "expected_assists": 0.015, "shots_on_target": 0.2118, "big_chances_created": 0.0162, "xgot": 0.0371, "ball_carries": 14.7029, "total_progression": 66.6093, "progressive_carries": 0.8406, "key_pass": 0.169, "shots_off_target": 0.2605, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.63, "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.356, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2208, "squad_xa_sum": 0.945, "team_expected_assists": 1.0496, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7741, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1107, "xa_scale": 1.1107, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9486, "tackles": 1.1439, "tackles_won": 0.6181, "clearances": 5.2504, "aerial_won": 2.8087, "total_shots": 0.4723, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 35.6765, "accurate_pass": 27.6122, "duels_won": 4.443, "total_long_balls": 4.7096, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8589, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4743, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.126, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2023, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4863, "crosses_total": 0.2397, "crosses_accurate": 0.0799, "touches": 48.8201, "possession_lost": 9.5442, "dispossessed": 0.1136, "duels_lost": 3.6818, "aerial_lost": 2.0989, "total_contest": 0.3814, "won_contest": 0.3376, "ball_recovery": 2.8208, "challenges_lost": 0.1232, "fouls": 1.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.3908, "blocks": 0.7088, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0404, "expected_assists": 0.015, "shots_on_target": 0.2118, "big_chances_created": 0.0162, "xgot": 0.0371, "ball_carries": 14.7029, "total_progression": 66.6093, "progressive_carries": 0.8406, "key_pass": 0.169, "shots_off_target": 0.2605, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.63, "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1212, "fifa_rank": 509.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9486, "tackles": 1.1439, "tackles_won": 0.6181, "clearances": 5.2504, "aerial_won": 2.8087, "total_shots": 0.4723, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 35.6765, "accurate_pass": 27.6122, "duels_won": 4.443, "total_long_balls": 4.7096, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8589, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4743, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.126, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2023, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4863, "crosses_total": 0.2397, "crosses_accurate": 0.0799, "touches": 48.8201, "possession_lost": 9.5442, "dispossessed": 0.1136, "duels_lost": 3.6818, "aerial_lost": 2.0989, "total_contest": 0.3814, "won_contest": 0.3376, "ball_recovery": 2.8208, "challenges_lost": 0.1232, "fouls": 1.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.3908, "blocks": 0.7088, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0404, "expected_assists": 0.015, "shots_on_target": 0.2118, "big_chances_created": 0.0162, "xgot": 0.0371, "ball_carries": 14.7029, "total_progression": 66.6093, "progressive_carries": 0.8406, "key_pass": 0.169, "shots_off_target": 0.2605, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.63, "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0396, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0396, "scorer_weight": 0.0323, "squad_weight_total": 1.2716, "weight_share": 0.0254, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Wilson Isidor", "weight": 0.2561, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2561, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2324 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9486, "tackles": 1.1439, "tackles_won": 0.6181, "clearances": 5.2504, "aerial_won": 2.8087, "total_shots": 0.4723, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 35.6765, "accurate_pass": 27.6122, "duels_won": 4.443, "total_long_balls": 4.7096, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8589, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4743, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.126, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2023, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4863, "crosses_total": 0.2397, "crosses_accurate": 0.0799, "touches": 48.8201, "possession_lost": 9.5442, "dispossessed": 0.1136, "duels_lost": 3.6818, "aerial_lost": 2.0989, "total_contest": 0.3814, "won_contest": 0.3376, "ball_recovery": 2.8208, "challenges_lost": 0.1232, "fouls": 1.3002, "fouls_drawn": 0.3908, "blocks": 0.7088, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0404, "expected_assists": 0.015, "shots_on_target": 0.2118, "big_chances_created": 0.0162, "xgot": 0.0371, "ball_carries": 14.7029, "total_progression": 66.6093, "progressive_carries": 0.8406, "key_pass": 0.169, "shots_off_target": 0.2605, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.63, "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0396, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0149, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0149, "provider_weight": 0.012, "squad_weight_total": 1.0119, "weight_share": 0.0119, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thomas Meunier", "weight": 0.1964, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1964, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1623, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Wilson Isidor" ] } ] } } ] }, "Reinildo Mandava": { 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"importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.112 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0547 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0064, "total": 0.3939, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.112032 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.054656 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014809 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.010357 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.009099 } ], "others_margin": -0.006332 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.667736053466797, "model_output": 6.6677, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": 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"role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9976, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1812, "tackles": 1.9578, "tackles_won": 1.3129, "clearances": 3.227, "aerial_won": 1.4973, "total_shots": 0.393, "rating": 6.6677, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 34.9543, "accurate_pass": 30.2193, "duels_won": 5.1942, "total_long_balls": 2.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1913, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7343, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.485, "crosses_total": 0.7024, "crosses_accurate": 0.1824, "touches": 55.1119, "possession_lost": 8.5238, "dispossessed": 0.3961, "duels_lost": 4.0693, "aerial_lost": 0.8237, "total_contest": 0.7508, "won_contest": 0.5162, "ball_recovery": 4.1636, "challenges_lost": 1.1157, "fouls": 1.5412, "fouls_drawn": 1.1267, "blocks": 0.4176, "goals": 0.0, 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{ "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0347 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0332 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0298 } ], "others": -0.0343, "total": 1.6412, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.440359 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.181656 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.034705 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.03315 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.02981 } ], "others_margin": -0.03421 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03576047345995903, "model_output": 0.0358, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0181, "total": 0.0358, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.193242 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.110245 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.096212 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.083499 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.080118 } ], "others_margin": -0.409624 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5232327580451965, "model_output": 0.5232, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2303 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0754 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0552 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0425 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0391 } ], "others": -0.1689, "total": 0.5232, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.29398 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.08705 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.0689 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.056444 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.054898 } ], "others_margin": -0.279858 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6982221603393555, "model_output": 6.6982, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0502 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0426, "total": 6.6982, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050187 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.023234 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.019798 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016323 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01232 } ], "others_margin": -0.042451 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0040, quality 0.616)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.283, "goals": 0.2668, "goal_rate": 0.2668, "shots_on_target": 0.7615, "total_shots": 1.6478, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "key_pass": 0.5253, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 69.91, "total_pass": 7.0655, "accurate_pass": 4.1706, "duels_won": 2.2794, "total_long_balls": 0.3067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1791, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6555, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.2374, "possession_lost": 4.9718, "dispossessed": 0.528, "duels_lost": 5.4354, "aerial_lost": 3.3212, "total_contest": 0.8124, "won_contest": 0.2436, "ball_recovery": 1.2436, "challenges_lost": 0.3722, "fouls": 0.8867, "fouls_drawn": 0.3014, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3266, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.053718 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.030675 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.015987 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.012153 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.009565 } ], "others_margin": -0.059428 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 13, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0075, quality 0.595)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1484, "goals": 0.1441, "goal_rate": 0.1441, "shots_on_target": 0.552, "total_shots": 1.4271, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "key_pass": 0.8582, "rating": 6.7315, "minutes": 69.11, "total_pass": 15.4505, "accurate_pass": 12.8258, "duels_won": 3.8435, "total_long_balls": 0.2295, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.806, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.602, "crosses_total": 1.1544, "crosses_accurate": 0.1156, "touches": 31.0576, "possession_lost": 8.9077, "dispossessed": 1.0729, "duels_lost": 5.2594, "aerial_lost": 1.6892, "total_contest": 2.3843, "won_contest": 1.4085, "ball_recovery": 2.1844, "challenges_lost": 0.5046, "fouls": 1.2034, "fouls_drawn": 0.8481, "assists": 0.1882, "assist_rate": 0.1882, "interceptions": 0.9568, "tackles_won": 0.5894, "tackles": 1.1321, "clearances": 0.6177, "blocks": 0.1359, "big_chances_created": 0.2002, "big_chances_missed": 0.5012, "xgot": 0.0497, "offsides": 0.0742, "ball_carries": 7.5568, "total_progression": 56.2143, "progressive_carries": 2.3835, "shots_off_target": 0.875 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16500000, "quality_factor": 0.5953, "boost_factor": 1.0075, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 13, "history_shrink": 0.2778, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0168)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1484, "goals": 0.1509, "goal_rate": 0.1509, "shots_on_target": 0.5523, "total_shots": 1.4222, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "key_pass": 0.8582, "rating": 6.7315, "minutes": 69.11, "total_pass": 15.4505, "accurate_pass": 12.8258, "duels_won": 3.8435, "total_long_balls": 0.2295, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.806, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.602, "crosses_total": 1.1719, "crosses_accurate": 0.1156, "touches": 31.0576, "possession_lost": 8.9077, "dispossessed": 1.0729, "duels_lost": 5.2594, "aerial_lost": 1.6892, "total_contest": 2.3843, "won_contest": 1.4085, "ball_recovery": 2.1844, "challenges_lost": 0.5046, "fouls": 1.2016, "fouls_drawn": 0.8708, "assists": 0.185, "assist_rate": 0.185, "interceptions": 0.9499, "tackles_won": 0.5887, "tackles": 1.1321, "clearances": 0.6177, "blocks": 0.1359, "big_chances_created": 0.2002, "big_chances_missed": 0.5012, "xgot": 0.0497, "offsides": 0.073, "ball_carries": 7.5568, "total_progression": 56.2143, "progressive_carries": 2.3835, "shots_off_target": 0.875 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0168, "history_matches": 13, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7679, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.8481, "after": 0.8708 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.1544, "after": 1.1719 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.9568, "after": 0.9499 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1441, "after": 0.1509 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1484, "goals": 0.1509, "goal_rate": 0.1509, "shots_on_target": 0.5523, "total_shots": 1.4273, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "key_pass": 0.8582, "rating": 6.7315, "minutes": 69.11, "total_pass": 15.4505, "accurate_pass": 12.8258, "duels_won": 3.8435, "total_long_balls": 0.2295, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.806, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.602, "crosses_total": 1.1719, "crosses_accurate": 0.1156, "touches": 31.0576, "possession_lost": 8.9077, "dispossessed": 1.0729, "duels_lost": 5.2594, "aerial_lost": 1.6892, "total_contest": 2.3843, "won_contest": 1.4085, "ball_recovery": 2.1844, "challenges_lost": 0.5046, "fouls": 1.2016, "fouls_drawn": 0.8708, "assists": 0.185, "assist_rate": 0.185, "interceptions": 0.9499, "tackles_won": 0.5887, "tackles": 1.1321, "clearances": 0.6177, "blocks": 0.1359, "big_chances_created": 0.2002, "big_chances_missed": 0.5012, "xgot": 0.0497, "offsides": 0.073, "ball_carries": 7.5568, "total_progression": 56.2143, "progressive_carries": 2.3835, "shots_off_target": 0.875 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1219, "goals": 0.124, "goal_rate": 0.124, "shots_on_target": 0.4538, "total_shots": 1.1728, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "key_pass": 0.8582, "rating": 6.7315, "minutes": 69.11, "total_pass": 15.4505, "accurate_pass": 12.8258, "duels_won": 3.8435, "total_long_balls": 0.2295, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.806, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.602, "crosses_total": 1.1719, "crosses_accurate": 0.1156, "touches": 31.0576, "possession_lost": 8.9077, "dispossessed": 1.0729, "duels_lost": 5.2594, "aerial_lost": 1.6892, "total_contest": 2.3843, "won_contest": 1.4085, "ball_recovery": 2.1844, "challenges_lost": 0.5046, "fouls": 1.2016, "fouls_drawn": 0.8708, "assists": 0.185, "assist_rate": 0.185, "interceptions": 0.9499, "tackles_won": 0.5887, "tackles": 1.1321, "clearances": 0.6177, "blocks": 0.1359, "big_chances_created": 0.2002, "big_chances_missed": 0.4118, "xgot": 0.0408, "offsides": 0.073, "ball_carries": 7.5568, "total_progression": 56.2143, "progressive_carries": 2.3835, "shots_off_target": 0.719, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8217, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Luka Vušković, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "opponent_faced": "Luka Vušković, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Luka Vušković, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.8217, "skill_edge": -0.1153, "height_edge": -0.006, "attacker_skill": 0.5953, "defender_skill": 0.8515, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Luka Vušković", "market_value": 64000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8862 }, { "player": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "market_value": 36000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8168 } ], "xg_override": 0.1219 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4273, "after": 1.1728 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.875, "after": 0.719 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5523, "after": 0.4538 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.5012, "after": 0.4118 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1509, "after": 0.124 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1484, "after": 0.1219 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0497, "after": 0.0408 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.36 (squad xG sum 1.2208, xG scale 1.1107, xA scale 1.1107, team xA 1.05 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1354, "goal_rate": 0.124, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4538, "total_shots": 1.1728, "expected_assists": 0.0874, "key_pass": 0.8582, "rating": 6.7315, "minutes": 69.11, "total_pass": 15.4505, "accurate_pass": 12.8258, "duels_won": 3.8435, "total_long_balls": 0.2295, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.806, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.602, "crosses_total": 1.1719, "crosses_accurate": 0.1156, "touches": 31.0576, "possession_lost": 8.9077, "dispossessed": 1.0729, "duels_lost": 5.2594, "aerial_lost": 1.6892, "total_contest": 2.3843, "won_contest": 1.4085, "ball_recovery": 2.1844, "challenges_lost": 0.5046, "fouls": 1.2016, "fouls_drawn": 0.8708, "assist_rate": 0.185, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9499, "tackles_won": 0.5887, "tackles": 1.1321, "clearances": 0.6177, "blocks": 0.1359, "big_chances_created": 0.2002, "big_chances_missed": 0.4118, "xgot": 0.0453, "offsides": 0.073, "ball_carries": 7.5568, "total_progression": 56.2143, "progressive_carries": 2.3835, "shots_off_target": 0.719, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8217, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Luka Vušković, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "opponent_faced": "Luka Vušković, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0122, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.356, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2208, "squad_xa_sum": 0.945, "team_expected_assists": 1.0496, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7741, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1107, "xa_scale": 1.1107, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1219, "after": 0.1354 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0787, "after": 0.0874 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1354, "goal_rate": 0.124, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4538, "total_shots": 1.1728, "expected_assists": 0.0874, "key_pass": 0.8582, "rating": 6.7315, "minutes": 69.11, "total_pass": 15.4505, "accurate_pass": 12.8258, "duels_won": 3.8435, "total_long_balls": 0.2295, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.806, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.602, "crosses_total": 1.1719, "crosses_accurate": 0.1156, "touches": 31.0576, "possession_lost": 8.9077, "dispossessed": 1.0729, "duels_lost": 5.2594, "aerial_lost": 1.6892, "total_contest": 2.3843, "won_contest": 1.4085, "ball_recovery": 2.1844, "challenges_lost": 0.5046, "fouls": 1.2016, "fouls_drawn": 0.8708, "assist_rate": 0.185, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9499, "tackles_won": 0.5887, "tackles": 1.1321, "clearances": 0.6177, "blocks": 0.1359, "big_chances_created": 0.2002, "big_chances_missed": 0.4118, "xgot": 0.0453, "offsides": 0.073, "ball_carries": 7.5568, "total_progression": 56.2143, "progressive_carries": 2.3835, "shots_off_target": 0.719, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8217, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two 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0.4538, "total_shots": 1.1728, "expected_assists": 0.0874, "key_pass": 0.8582, "rating": 6.7315, "minutes": 69.11, "total_pass": 15.4505, "accurate_pass": 12.8258, "duels_won": 3.8435, "total_long_balls": 0.2295, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.806, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.602, "crosses_total": 1.1719, "crosses_accurate": 0.1156, "touches": 31.0576, "possession_lost": 8.9077, "dispossessed": 1.0729, "duels_lost": 5.2594, "aerial_lost": 1.6892, "total_contest": 2.3843, "won_contest": 1.4085, "ball_recovery": 2.1844, "challenges_lost": 0.5046, "fouls": 1.2016, "fouls_drawn": 0.8708, "assist_rate": 0.185, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9499, "tackles_won": 0.5887, "tackles": 1.1321, "clearances": 0.6177, "blocks": 0.1359, "big_chances_created": 0.2002, "big_chances_missed": 0.4118, "xgot": 0.0453, "offsides": 0.073, "ball_carries": 7.5568, "total_progression": 56.2143, "progressive_carries": 2.3835, "shots_off_target": 0.719, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8217, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Luka Vušković, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "opponent_faced": "Luka Vušković, Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1266, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0122, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1266, "scorer_weight": 0.1371, "squad_weight_total": 1.2716, "weight_share": 0.1078, "finishing_factor": 1.0122, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Wilson Isidor", "weight": 0.2561, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2561, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2324 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1354, "goal_rate": 0.124, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4538, "total_shots": 1.1728, "expected_assists": 0.0874, "key_pass": 0.8582, "rating": 6.7315, "minutes": 69.11, "total_pass": 15.4505, "accurate_pass": 12.8258, "duels_won": 3.8435, "total_long_balls": 0.2295, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.806, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.602, "crosses_total": 1.1719, "crosses_accurate": 0.1156, "touches": 31.0576, "possession_lost": 8.9077, "dispossessed": 1.0729, "duels_lost": 5.2594, "aerial_lost": 1.6892, "total_contest": 2.3843, "won_contest": 1.4085, "ball_recovery": 2.1844, "challenges_lost": 0.5046, "fouls": 1.2016, "fouls_drawn": 0.8708, "assist_rate": 0.185, "assists": 0, 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"assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0837, "provider_weight": 0.1093, "squad_weight_total": 1.0119, "weight_share": 0.108, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thomas Meunier", "weight": 0.1964, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1964, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1623, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Wilson Isidor" ] } ] } } ] }, "Enzo Le Fée": { "player_id": 984014, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 28, "height": 173, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1945, "assist_rate": 0.1378, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2499, "goal_rate": 0.2057, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 6.9158, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 10, 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-0.012 } ], "others": -0.0577, "total": 6.6988, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.032008 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020599 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.015924 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.012084 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012049 } ], "others_margin": -0.057693 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9899, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7284, "tackles": 1.3673, "tackles_won": 0.8836, "clearances": 2.9052, "aerial_won": 0.8298, "total_shots": 0.8763, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 81.97, "total_pass": 28.3749, "accurate_pass": 23.6435, "duels_won": 1.4573, "total_long_balls": 2.6893, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1191, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4652, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2259, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4176, "crosses_total": 1.5429, "crosses_accurate": 0.1639, "touches": 41.0563, "possession_lost": 7.97, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.009, "aerial_lost": 1.4446, "total_contest": 0.4715, "won_contest": 0.1393, "ball_recovery": 2.9458, "challenges_lost": 0.6331, "fouls": 0.5991, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2669, "assist_rate": 0.2669, "expected_goals": 0.0643, "expected_assists": 0.1414, "shots_on_target": 0.723, "big_chances_created": 0.2669, "xgot": 0.007, "ball_carries": 9.4337, "total_progression": 36.7865, "progressive_carries": 0.9999, "key_pass": 0.4308, "shots_off_target": 0.1532 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9899, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0433)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.756, "tackles": 1.3673, "tackles_won": 0.865, "clearances": 2.9052, "aerial_won": 0.8298, "total_shots": 0.8975, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 81.97, "total_pass": 28.3749, "accurate_pass": 23.6435, "duels_won": 1.4573, "total_long_balls": 2.6893, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1191, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4652, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2259, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4176, "crosses_total": 1.6142, "crosses_accurate": 0.1639, "touches": 41.0563, "possession_lost": 7.97, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.009, "aerial_lost": 1.4446, "total_contest": 0.4715, "won_contest": 0.1393, "ball_recovery": 2.9458, "challenges_lost": 0.6331, "fouls": 0.5929, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2553, "assist_rate": 0.2553, "expected_goals": 0.0643, "expected_assists": 0.1414, "shots_on_target": 0.7311, "big_chances_created": 0.2669, "xgot": 0.007, "ball_carries": 9.4337, "total_progression": 36.7865, "progressive_carries": 0.9999, "key_pass": 0.4308, "shots_off_target": 0.1532 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0433, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9108, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.5429, "after": 1.6142 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.7284, "after": 0.756 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8763, "after": 0.8975 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8836, "after": 0.865 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.2669, "after": 0.2553 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.723, "after": 0.7311 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.5991, "after": 0.5929 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.756, "tackles": 1.3673, "tackles_won": 0.865, "clearances": 2.9052, "aerial_won": 0.8298, "total_shots": 0.8975, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 81.97, "total_pass": 28.3749, "accurate_pass": 23.6435, "duels_won": 1.4573, "total_long_balls": 2.6893, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1191, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4652, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2259, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4176, "crosses_total": 1.6142, "crosses_accurate": 0.1639, "touches": 41.0563, 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"duels_won": 1.4573, "total_long_balls": 2.6893, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1191, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4652, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2259, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4176, "crosses_total": 1.6142, "crosses_accurate": 0.1639, "touches": 41.0563, "possession_lost": 7.97, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.009, "aerial_lost": 1.4446, "total_contest": 0.4715, "won_contest": 0.1393, "ball_recovery": 2.9458, "challenges_lost": 0.6331, "fouls": 0.5929, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2553, "assist_rate": 0.2553, "expected_goals": 0.0643, "expected_assists": 0.1414, "shots_on_target": 0.7311, "big_chances_created": 0.2669, "xgot": 0.007, "ball_carries": 9.4337, "total_progression": 36.7865, "progressive_carries": 0.9999, "key_pass": 0.4308, "shots_off_target": 0.1532, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.76, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.36 (squad xG sum 1.2208, xG scale 1.1107, xA scale 1.1107, team xA 1.05 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.756, "tackles": 1.3673, "tackles_won": 0.865, "clearances": 2.9052, "aerial_won": 0.8298, "total_shots": 0.8975, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 81.97, "total_pass": 28.3749, "accurate_pass": 23.6435, "duels_won": 1.4573, "total_long_balls": 2.6893, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1191, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4652, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2259, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4176, "crosses_total": 1.6142, "crosses_accurate": 0.1639, "touches": 41.0563, "possession_lost": 7.97, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.009, "aerial_lost": 1.4446, "total_contest": 0.4715, "won_contest": 0.1393, "ball_recovery": 2.9458, "challenges_lost": 0.6331, "fouls": 0.5929, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2553, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0714, "expected_assists": 0.1571, "shots_on_target": 0.7311, "big_chances_created": 0.2669, "xgot": 0.0078, "ball_carries": 9.4337, "total_progression": 36.7865, "progressive_carries": 0.9999, "key_pass": 0.4308, "shots_off_target": 0.1532, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.76, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.356, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2208, "squad_xa_sum": 0.945, "team_expected_assists": 1.0496, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7741, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1107, "xa_scale": 1.1107, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0643, "after": 0.0714 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1414, "after": 0.1571 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.756, "tackles": 1.3673, "tackles_won": 0.865, "clearances": 2.9052, "aerial_won": 0.8298, "total_shots": 0.8975, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 81.97, "total_pass": 28.3749, "accurate_pass": 23.6435, "duels_won": 1.4573, "total_long_balls": 2.6893, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1191, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4652, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2259, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4176, "crosses_total": 1.6142, "crosses_accurate": 0.1639, "touches": 41.0563, "possession_lost": 7.97, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.009, "aerial_lost": 1.4446, "total_contest": 0.4715, "won_contest": 0.1393, "ball_recovery": 2.9458, "challenges_lost": 0.6331, "fouls": 0.5929, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2553, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0714, "expected_assists": 0.1571, "shots_on_target": 0.7311, "big_chances_created": 0.2669, "xgot": 0.0078, "ball_carries": 9.4337, "total_progression": 36.7865, 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78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.756, "tackles": 1.3673, "tackles_won": 0.865, "clearances": 2.9052, "aerial_won": 0.8298, "total_shots": 0.8975, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 81.97, "total_pass": 28.3749, "accurate_pass": 23.6435, "duels_won": 1.4573, "total_long_balls": 2.6893, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1191, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4652, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2259, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4176, "crosses_total": 1.6142, "crosses_accurate": 0.1639, "touches": 41.0563, "possession_lost": 7.97, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.009, "aerial_lost": 1.4446, "total_contest": 0.4715, "won_contest": 0.1393, "ball_recovery": 2.9458, "challenges_lost": 0.6331, "fouls": 0.5929, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2553, "assists": 0, 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"weight_share": 0.0449, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Wilson Isidor", "weight": 0.2561, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2561, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2324 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.756, "tackles": 1.3673, "tackles_won": 0.865, "clearances": 2.9052, "aerial_won": 0.8298, "total_shots": 0.8975, "rating": 6.6988, "minutes": 81.97, "total_pass": 28.3749, "accurate_pass": 23.6435, "duels_won": 1.4573, "total_long_balls": 2.6893, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1191, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4652, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2259, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4176, "crosses_total": 1.6142, "crosses_accurate": 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0468 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0511 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.042, "total": 0.3351, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134843 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.129002 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.048288 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.042622 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.021151 } ], "others_margin": -0.118147 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0244582891464233, "model_output": 1.0245, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1483 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0509 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0435 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.04 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.016 } ], "others": -0.0657, "total": 1.0245, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.148282 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.050876 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.043479 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.039958 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.016039 } ], "others_margin": -0.065689 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.801568031311035, "model_output": 6.8016, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0203 } ], "others": -0.0377, "total": 6.8016, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.027756 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.026565 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.022913 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020762 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.020251 } ], "others_margin": -0.037698 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0090, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8111, "expected_assists": 0.0646, "assists": 0.0771, "assist_rate": 0.0771, "expected_goals": 0.0913, "goals": 0.0747, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.3381, "total_shots": 1.0337, "rating": 6.8016, "minutes": 83.4, "total_pass": 34.4286, "accurate_pass": 30.0255, "duels_won": 3.6119, "total_long_balls": 2.2265, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2413, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8289, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0641, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9614, "crosses_total": 0.483, "crosses_accurate": 0.1776, "touches": 46.544, "possession_lost": 7.2015, "dispossessed": 0.7011, "duels_lost": 2.7652, "aerial_won": 0.4802, "aerial_lost": 0.4008, "interceptions": 0.633, "tackles_won": 0.7669, "tackles": 1.1086, "clearances": 1.2607, "total_contest": 1.0158, "won_contest": 0.6911, "challenges_lost": 0.5288, "fouls": 0.8182, "fouls_drawn": 1.3503, "blocks": 0.2256, "big_chances_created": 0.1113, "big_chances_missed": 0.2499, "xgot": 0.049, "ball_carries": 13.324, "total_progression": 35.0998, "progressive_carries": 1.0188, "shots_off_target": 0.6956 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 37000000, "quality_factor": 0.7641, "boost_factor": 1.009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0101)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8111, "expected_assists": 0.0646, "assists": 0.0763, "assist_rate": 0.0763, "expected_goals": 0.0913, "goals": 0.0739, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "shots_on_target": 0.3394, "total_shots": 1.0326, "rating": 6.8016, "minutes": 83.4, "total_pass": 34.4286, "accurate_pass": 30.0255, "duels_won": 3.6119, "total_long_balls": 2.2265, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2413, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8289, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0641, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9614, "crosses_total": 0.4875, "crosses_accurate": 0.1776, "touches": 46.544, "possession_lost": 7.2015, "dispossessed": 0.7011, "duels_lost": 2.7652, "aerial_won": 0.4802, "aerial_lost": 0.4008, "interceptions": 0.636, "tackles_won": 0.7732, "tackles": 1.1086, "clearances": 1.2607, "total_contest": 1.0158, "won_contest": 0.6911, "challenges_lost": 0.5288, "fouls": 0.8146, "fouls_drawn": 1.3554, "blocks": 0.2256, "big_chances_created": 0.1113, "big_chances_missed": 0.2499, "xgot": 0.049, "ball_carries": 13.324, "total_progression": 35.0998, "progressive_carries": 1.0188, "shots_off_target": 0.6956 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0101, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9267, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7669, "after": 0.7732 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.3503, "after": 1.3554 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8111, "expected_assists": 0.0646, "assists": 0.0763, "assist_rate": 0.0763, "expected_goals": 0.0913, "goals": 0.0739, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "shots_on_target": 0.3394, "total_shots": 1.035, "rating": 6.8016, "minutes": 83.4, "total_pass": 34.4286, "accurate_pass": 30.0255, "duels_won": 3.6119, "total_long_balls": 2.2265, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2413, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8289, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0641, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9614, "crosses_total": 0.4875, "crosses_accurate": 0.1776, "touches": 46.544, "possession_lost": 7.2015, "dispossessed": 0.7011, "duels_lost": 2.7652, "aerial_won": 0.4802, "aerial_lost": 0.4008, "interceptions": 0.636, "tackles_won": 0.7732, "tackles": 1.1086, "clearances": 1.2607, "total_contest": 1.0158, "won_contest": 0.6911, "challenges_lost": 0.5288, "fouls": 0.8146, "fouls_drawn": 1.3554, "blocks": 0.2256, "big_chances_created": 0.1113, "big_chances_missed": 0.2499, "xgot": 0.049, "ball_carries": 13.324, "total_progression": 35.0998, "progressive_carries": 1.0188, "shots_off_target": 0.6956 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8111, "expected_assists": 0.0646, "assists": 0.0763, "assist_rate": 0.0763, "expected_goals": 0.089, "goals": 0.072, "goal_rate": 0.072, "shots_on_target": 0.3307, "total_shots": 1.0084, "rating": 6.8016, "minutes": 83.4, "total_pass": 34.4286, "accurate_pass": 30.0255, "duels_won": 3.6119, "total_long_balls": 2.2265, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2413, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8289, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0641, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9614, "crosses_total": 0.4875, "crosses_accurate": 0.1776, "touches": 46.544, "possession_lost": 7.2015, "dispossessed": 0.7011, "duels_lost": 2.7652, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.4008, "interceptions": 0.636, "tackles_won": 0.7732, "tackles": 1.1086, "clearances": 1.2607, "total_contest": 1.0158, "won_contest": 0.6911, "challenges_lost": 0.5288, "fouls": 0.8146, "fouls_drawn": 1.3554, "blocks": 0.2256, "big_chances_created": 0.1113, "big_chances_missed": 0.2435, "xgot": 0.0477, "ball_carries": 13.324, "total_progression": 35.0998, "progressive_carries": 1.0188, "shots_off_target": 0.6777, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9743, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.402, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Diego Gómez", "opponent_faced": "Diego Gómez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Diego Gómez", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.402, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9743, "skill_edge": 0.0305, "height_edge": -0.048, "attacker_skill": 0.7981, "defender_skill": 0.7304, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Diego Gómez", "market_value": 27000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.7304 } ], "xg_override": 0.089 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.4802, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.035, "after": 1.0084 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6956, "after": 0.6777 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3394, "after": 0.3307 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2499, "after": 0.2435 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player 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"xa_scale": 1.1107, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.089, "after": 0.0989 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0646, "after": 0.0718 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8111, "expected_assists": 0.0718, "assist_rate": 0.0763, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0989, "goal_rate": 0.072, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3307, "total_shots": 1.0084, "rating": 6.8016, "minutes": 83.4, "total_pass": 34.4286, "accurate_pass": 30.0255, "duels_won": 3.6119, "total_long_balls": 2.2265, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2413, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8289, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0641, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9614, "crosses_total": 0.4875, "crosses_accurate": 0.1776, "touches": 46.544, "possession_lost": 7.2015, "dispossessed": 0.7011, "duels_lost": 2.7652, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.4008, "interceptions": 0.636, "tackles_won": 0.7732, "tackles": 1.1086, "clearances": 1.2607, "total_contest": 1.0158, "won_contest": 0.6911, "challenges_lost": 0.5288, "fouls": 0.8146, "fouls_drawn": 1.3554, "blocks": 0.2256, "big_chances_created": 0.1113, "big_chances_missed": 0.2435, "xgot": 0.053, "ball_carries": 13.324, "total_progression": 35.0998, "progressive_carries": 1.0188, "shots_off_target": 0.6777, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9743, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.402, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Diego Gómez", "opponent_faced": "Diego Gómez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, 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"importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2517 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.128 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0178 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.017 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0078, "total": 0.3609, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.251719 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.127994 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.017757 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.016988 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.013546 } ], "others_margin": -0.007666 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.754479885101318, "model_output": 6.7545, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": 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"minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0056, quality 0.650)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4132, "tackles": 0.6397, "tackles_won": 0.3713, "clearances": 1.7467, "aerial_won": 1.171, "total_shots": 0.363, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 28.75, "total_pass": 15.5115, "accurate_pass": 12.8451, "duels_won": 4.2103, "total_long_balls": 0.7095, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1959, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5062, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8493, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0053, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9958, "crosses_total": 0.2711, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3959, "possession_lost": 2.9376, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9299, "aerial_lost": 2.4629, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9341, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6086, "fouls_drawn": 0.2711, "blocks": 0.4127, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0572, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9576, "total_progression": 45.3105, "progressive_carries": 1.0872, "key_pass": 0.1416, "shots_off_target": 0.3629 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 22000000, "quality_factor": 0.6503, "boost_factor": 1.0056, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0111)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4104, "tackles": 0.6397, "tackles_won": 0.3689, "clearances": 1.7467, "aerial_won": 1.171, "total_shots": 0.3607, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 28.75, "total_pass": 15.5115, "accurate_pass": 12.8451, "duels_won": 4.2103, "total_long_balls": 0.7095, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1959, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5062, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8493, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0053, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9958, "crosses_total": 0.2681, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.3959, "possession_lost": 2.9376, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9299, "aerial_lost": 2.4629, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9341, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6072, "fouls_drawn": 0.2716, "blocks": 0.4127, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0572, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9576, "total_progression": 45.3105, "progressive_carries": 1.0872, "key_pass": 0.1416, "shots_off_target": 0.3629 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0111, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3194, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.8 to 14.4 expected minutes (appearance 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22.7183, "progressive_carries": 0.5451, "key_pass": 0.071, "shots_off_target": 0.182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.234, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.42 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.42, "projection_minutes": 28.75, "minutes_scale": 0.5014, "appearance_probability": 0.234 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2058, "tackles": 0.3207, "tackles_won": 0.185, "clearances": 0.8758, "aerial_won": 0.5871, "total_shots": 0.182, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 14.42, "total_pass": 7.7773, "accurate_pass": 6.4404, "duels_won": 2.111, "total_long_balls": 0.3557, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0982, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2649, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9356, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5124, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5049, "crosses_total": 0.1344, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.7305, "possession_lost": 1.4729, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.469, "aerial_lost": 2.4629, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4684, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3044, "fouls_drawn": 0.1362, "blocks": 0.2069, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0287, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4885, "total_progression": 22.7183, "progressive_carries": 0.5451, "key_pass": 0.071, "shots_off_target": 0.182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.234, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.42 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2058, "tackles": 0.3207, "tackles_won": 0.185, "clearances": 0.8758, "aerial_won": 0.5871, "total_shots": 0.182, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 14.42, "total_pass": 7.7773, "accurate_pass": 6.4404, "duels_won": 2.111, 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0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1580, "fifa_rank": 1106.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Lutsharel Geertruida": { "player_id": 856739, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 185, "market_value": 22000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, 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"is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0721, "expected_assists": 0.069, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025197, "match_date": "2026-02-11", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.079, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, 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2142 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 28, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", 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{ "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7167 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0137 } ], "others": 0.0741, "total": 0.7618, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.721986 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.033484 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.022302 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.020755 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.019672 } ], "others_margin": 0.102414 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.4706212878227234, "model_output": 0.4706, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4171 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0102 } ], "others": 0.0284, "total": 0.4706, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.669912 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.042822 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.027516 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.02731 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.023442 } ], "others_margin": 0.062185 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.9563068747520447, "model_output": 0.9563, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0534 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2175 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0896 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0692 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0631 } ], "others": -0.0023, "total": 0.9563, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.90373 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.169087 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.078889 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.065508 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.063761 } ], "others_margin": -0.002484 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.28923362493515015, "model_output": 0.2892, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8063 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1696 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0287 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0397, "total": 0.2892, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.875649 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.348847 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.095796 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.081068 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.034057 } ], "others_margin": -0.128656 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1407906413078308, "model_output": 0.1408, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2646 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.006 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.006 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0058 } ], "others": -0.0519, "total": 0.1408, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.264571 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.007963 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.006013 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.00596 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.005773 } ], "others_margin": -0.05198 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.708157062530518, "model_output": 6.7082, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0225, "total": 6.7082, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.013724 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011027 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.010246 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010189 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.009345 } ], "others_margin": -0.022444 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0066, quality 0.650)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3949, "tackles": 0.7668, "tackles_won": 0.4737, "clearances": 0.9626, "aerial_won": 0.2911, "total_shots": 0.1417, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 24.31, "total_pass": 14.0319, "accurate_pass": 11.9006, "duels_won": 1.4816, "total_long_balls": 1.0654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3334, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4521, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.1212, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5798, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7794, "crosses_total": 0.1541, "crosses_accurate": 0.1541, "touches": 19.2243, "possession_lost": 2.6874, "dispossessed": 0.0946, "duels_lost": 0.9369, "aerial_lost": 0.3411, "total_contest": 0.0938, "won_contest": 0.0938, "ball_recovery": 1.7474, "challenges_lost": 0.2617, "fouls": 0.2395, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.042, "goals": 0.0, 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"Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2342, "tackles": 0.4547, "tackles_won": 0.2809, "clearances": 0.5708, "aerial_won": 0.1726, "total_shots": 0.084, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 14.42, "total_pass": 8.3205, "accurate_pass": 7.0567, "duels_won": 0.8785, "total_long_balls": 0.6317, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8259, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6297, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.427, "crosses_total": 0.0914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0914, "touches": 11.3994, "possession_lost": 1.5935, "dispossessed": 0.0946, "duels_lost": 0.5556, "aerial_lost": 0.3411, "total_contest": 0.0556, "won_contest": 0.0556, "ball_recovery": 1.0362, "challenges_lost": 0.2617, "fouls": 0.142, "fouls_drawn": 0.066, "blocks": 0.0249, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0264, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "shots_on_target": 0.0293, "big_chances_created": 0.1075, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 2.3421, "total_progression": 1.3558, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2649, "shots_off_target": 0.0547, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.337, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.42 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2342, "tackles": 0.4547, "tackles_won": 0.2809, "clearances": 0.5708, "aerial_won": 0.1726, "total_shots": 0.084, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 14.42, "total_pass": 8.3205, "accurate_pass": 7.0567, "duels_won": 0.8785, "total_long_balls": 0.6317, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8259, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6297, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.427, "crosses_total": 0.0914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0914, "touches": 11.3994, "possession_lost": 1.5935, 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"name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.06857 } ], "others_margin": -0.066581 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2719569504261017, "model_output": 0.272, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1369 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0201 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0176 } ], "others": 0.0032, "total": 0.272, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.549318 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.114252 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.097263 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.083526 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.067536 } ], "others_margin": 0.011668 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.745017409324646, "model_output": 0.745, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4841 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0677 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0571 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0357 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0201 } ], "others": 0.0982, "total": 0.745, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.484135 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.067691 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.057059 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.035667 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.020072 } ], "others_margin": 0.098343 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.672055244445801, "model_output": 6.6721, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0685 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0352 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0273 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0232, "total": 6.6721, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.06846 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.035187 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027309 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013497 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009118 } ], "others_margin": -0.023243 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6312, "expected_assists": 0.0533, "assists": 0.0714, "assist_rate": 0.0714, "expected_goals": 0.0705, "goals": 0.0525, "goal_rate": 0.0525, "shots_on_target": 0.2759, "total_shots": 0.7558, "rating": 6.6721, "minutes": 20.47, "total_pass": 7.4349, "accurate_pass": 6.6268, "duels_won": 0.8159, "total_long_balls": 0.5756, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3073, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9373, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9373, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6895, "crosses_total": 0.9768, "crosses_accurate": 0.2751, "touches": 12.0677, "possession_lost": 2.49, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.9225, "aerial_won": 0.3858, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.0845, "tackles": 0.2683, "clearances": 0.1987, "total_contest": 0.4402, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5845, "fouls_drawn": 0.1618, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3615, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1266, "total_progression": 20.6444, "progressive_carries": 0.8217, "shots_off_target": 0.4799 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 37000000, "quality_factor": 0.7641, "boost_factor": 1.0144, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0024)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6312, "expected_assists": 0.0533, "assists": 0.0731, "assist_rate": 0.0731, "expected_goals": 0.0705, "goals": 0.0524, "goal_rate": 0.0524, "shots_on_target": 0.2752, "total_shots": 0.7557, "rating": 6.6721, "minutes": 20.47, "total_pass": 7.4349, "accurate_pass": 6.6268, "duels_won": 0.8159, "total_long_balls": 0.5756, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3073, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9373, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9373, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6895, "crosses_total": 0.9744, "crosses_accurate": 0.2751, "touches": 12.0677, "possession_lost": 2.49, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.9225, "aerial_won": 0.3858, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0843, "tackles_won": 0.0843, "tackles": 0.2683, "clearances": 0.1987, "total_contest": 0.4402, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5849, "fouls_drawn": 0.1614, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3615, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1266, "total_progression": 20.6444, "progressive_carries": 0.8217, "shots_off_target": 0.4799 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0024, "history_matches": 22, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2274, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.5 to 18.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5772, "expected_assists": 0.0487, "assists": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0669, "expected_goals": 0.0645, "goals": 0.0479, "goal_rate": 0.0479, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.6911, "rating": 6.6721, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 6.0603, "duels_won": 0.7461, "total_long_balls": 0.5264, "accurate_long_balls": 0.281, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0276, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2886, "crosses_total": 0.8911, "crosses_accurate": 0.2516, "touches": 11.036, "possession_lost": 2.2771, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_won": 0.3528, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0771, "tackles_won": 0.0771, "tackles": 0.2454, "clearances": 0.1817, "total_contest": 0.4026, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5349, "fouls_drawn": 0.1476, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3306, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7738, "total_progression": 18.8795, "progressive_carries": 0.7515, "shots_off_target": 0.4389, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.72, "projection_minutes": 20.47, "minutes_scale": 0.9145, "appearance_probability": 0.718 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5772, "expected_assists": 0.0487, "assists": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0669, "expected_goals": 0.0645, "goals": 0.0479, "goal_rate": 0.0479, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.6911, "rating": 6.6721, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 6.0603, "duels_won": 0.7461, "total_long_balls": 0.5264, "accurate_long_balls": 0.281, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0276, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2886, "crosses_total": 0.8911, "crosses_accurate": 0.2516, "touches": 11.036, "possession_lost": 2.2771, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_won": 0.3528, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0771, "tackles_won": 0.0771, "tackles": 0.2454, "clearances": 0.1817, "total_contest": 0.4026, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5349, "fouls_drawn": 0.1476, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3306, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7738, "total_progression": 18.8795, "progressive_carries": 0.7515, "shots_off_target": 0.4389, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.36 (squad xG sum 1.2208, xG scale 1.1107, xA scale 1.1107, team xA 1.05 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5772, "expected_assists": 0.0541, "assist_rate": 0.0669, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0716, "goal_rate": 0.0479, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.6911, "rating": 6.6721, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 6.0603, "duels_won": 0.7461, "total_long_balls": 0.5264, "accurate_long_balls": 0.281, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0276, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2886, "crosses_total": 0.8911, "crosses_accurate": 0.2516, "touches": 11.036, "possession_lost": 2.2771, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_won": 0.3528, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0771, "tackles_won": 0.0771, "tackles": 0.2454, "clearances": 0.1817, "total_contest": 0.4026, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5349, "fouls_drawn": 0.1476, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3306, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7738, "total_progression": 18.8795, "progressive_carries": 0.7515, "shots_off_target": 0.4389, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.855, "creation_factor": 1.1844 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.356, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2208, "squad_xa_sum": 0.945, "team_expected_assists": 1.0496, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7741, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1107, "xa_scale": 1.1107, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.718 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0645, "after": 0.0716 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0487, "after": 0.0541 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5772, "expected_assists": 0.0541, "assist_rate": 0.0669, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0716, "goal_rate": 0.0479, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.6911, "rating": 6.6721, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 6.0603, "duels_won": 0.7461, "total_long_balls": 0.5264, "accurate_long_balls": 0.281, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0276, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2886, "crosses_total": 0.8911, "crosses_accurate": 0.2516, "touches": 11.036, "possession_lost": 2.2771, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_won": 0.3528, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0771, "tackles_won": 0.0771, "tackles": 0.2454, "clearances": 0.1817, "total_contest": 0.4026, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5349, "fouls_drawn": 0.1476, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3306, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7738, "total_progression": 18.8795, "progressive_carries": 0.7515, "shots_off_target": 0.4389, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.855, "creation_factor": 1.1844, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3071, "fifa_rank": 1436.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5772, "expected_assists": 0.0541, "assist_rate": 0.0669, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0716, "goal_rate": 0.0479, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.6911, "rating": 6.6721, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 6.0603, "duels_won": 0.7461, "total_long_balls": 0.5264, "accurate_long_balls": 0.281, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0276, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2886, "crosses_total": 0.8911, "crosses_accurate": 0.2516, "touches": 11.036, "possession_lost": 2.2771, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_won": 0.3528, 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"name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0042 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0002, "total": 0.0388, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.644106 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.160266 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.099916 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.078285 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.068525 } ], "others_margin": -0.008911 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.14806294441223145, "model_output": 0.1481, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1414 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0437 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0043 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0035 } ], "others": 0.0199, "total": 0.1481, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.573619 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.27359 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.086728 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.033024 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.027023 } ], "others_margin": 0.144857 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3516359329223633, "model_output": 0.3516, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3789 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2076 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0465 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0214 } ], "others": 0.0369, "total": 0.3516, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.378932 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.207561 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.046507 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.021439 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.021367 } ], "others_margin": 0.036978 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.641719341278076, "model_output": 6.6417, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0609 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0521 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0308 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0166 } ], "others": -0.029, "total": 6.6417, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.060894 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.052092 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.030788 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.017803 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016639 } ], "others_margin": -0.028934 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0098, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3631, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assists": 0.041, "assist_rate": 0.041, "expected_goals": 0.04, "goals": 0.0392, "goal_rate": 0.0392, "shots_on_target": 0.1495, "total_shots": 0.3551, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 10.35, "total_pass": 2.1929, "accurate_pass": 1.4269, "duels_won": 0.1772, "total_long_balls": 0.224, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1211, "total_own_half_passes": 0.663, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.363, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.064, "crosses_total": 0.2085, "crosses_accurate": 0.0874, "touches": 3.3117, "possession_lost": 1.2571, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5422, "aerial_won": 0.1029, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1211, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0743, "total_contest": 0.1211, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0743, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1865, "total_progression": 6.1825, "progressive_carries": 0.448, "shots_off_target": 0.2056 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0098, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 20, "history_shrink": 0.2, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0017)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3631, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assists": 0.0409, "assist_rate": 0.0409, "expected_goals": 0.04, "goals": 0.0391, "goal_rate": 0.0391, "shots_on_target": 0.1492, "total_shots": 0.3545, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 10.35, "total_pass": 2.1929, "accurate_pass": 1.4269, "duels_won": 0.1772, "total_long_balls": 0.224, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1211, "total_own_half_passes": 0.663, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.363, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.064, "crosses_total": 0.2081, "crosses_accurate": 0.0874, "touches": 3.3117, "possession_lost": 1.2571, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5422, "aerial_won": 0.1029, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1209, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0743, "total_contest": 0.1211, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0742, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1865, "total_progression": 6.1825, "progressive_carries": 0.448, "shots_off_target": 0.2056 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0017, "history_matches": 20, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.115, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 10.3 to 15.8 expected minutes (appearance 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1.7798, "total_progression": 9.2737, "progressive_carries": 0.672, "shots_off_target": 0.3084, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.8, "projection_minutes": 10.35, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.711 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "assists": 0.0614, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "expected_goals": 0.06, "goals": 0.0587, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 3.2893, "accurate_pass": 2.1404, "duels_won": 0.2658, "total_long_balls": 0.336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1817, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5445, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.596, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1311, "touches": 4.9676, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8133, "aerial_won": 0.1544, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1813, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1115, "total_contest": 0.1817, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7798, "total_progression": 9.2737, "progressive_carries": 0.672, "shots_off_target": 0.3084, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.36 (squad xG sum 1.2208, xG scale 1.1107, xA scale 1.1107, team xA 1.05 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0666, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 3.2893, "accurate_pass": 2.1404, "duels_won": 0.2658, "total_long_balls": 0.336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1817, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5445, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.596, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1311, "touches": 4.9676, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8133, "aerial_won": 0.1544, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1813, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1115, "total_contest": 0.1817, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7798, "total_progression": 9.2737, "progressive_carries": 0.672, "shots_off_target": 0.3084, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9882, "creation_factor": 1.2096 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.356, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2208, "squad_xa_sum": 0.945, "team_expected_assists": 1.0496, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7741, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1107, "xa_scale": 1.1107, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.711 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.06, "after": 0.0666 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0666, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 3.2893, "accurate_pass": 2.1404, "duels_won": 0.2658, "total_long_balls": 0.336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1817, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5445, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.596, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1311, "touches": 4.9676, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8133, "aerial_won": 0.1544, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1813, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1115, "total_contest": 0.1817, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7798, 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"name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.186782 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.094918 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.073042 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.067164 } ], "others_margin": 0.319095 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.3777797222137451, "model_output": 1.3778, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6713 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1702 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.124 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.1042 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0907 } ], "others": 0.1813, "total": 1.3778, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.671328 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.170227 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.123982 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.104156 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.090745 } ], "others_margin": 0.18129 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.025048714131116867, "model_output": 0.025, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0047 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0021 } ], "others": -0.0063, "total": 0.025, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.342382 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.108773 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.105987 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.100293 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.065984 } ], "others_margin": -0.21906 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.2926689684391022, "model_output": 0.2927, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2735 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": -0.036, "total": 0.2927, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.520484 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.064717 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.054309 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.045732 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.033031 } ], "others_margin": -0.11588 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.848901271820068, "model_output": 6.8489, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1119 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0711 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.018 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0173 } ], "others": -0.0107, "total": 6.8489, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.111912 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.071147 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.021301 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.018023 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.01728 } ], "others_margin": -0.010631 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0105, quality 0.791)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2086, "goals": 0.3128, "goal_rate": 0.3128, "shots_on_target": 0.7196, "total_shots": 1.3923, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "key_pass": 0.2957, "rating": 6.8489, "minutes": 23.92, "total_pass": 3.3431, "accurate_pass": 2.5259, "duels_won": 1.7383, "total_long_balls": 0.0633, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2892, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5464, "crosses_total": 0.1972, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.2322, "possession_lost": 3.0836, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.152, "aerial_lost": 1.137, "total_contest": 0.1676, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9626, "challenges_lost": 0.0633, "fouls": 0.4328, "fouls_drawn": 0.3834, "assists": 0.0875, "assist_rate": 0.0875, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1212, "tackles": 0.3511, "clearances": 0.4021, "blocks": 0.0875, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1676, "xgot": 0.1583, "offsides": 0.1844, "ball_carries": 1.5567, "total_progression": 3.3838, "shots_off_target": 0.6727 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 42000000, "quality_factor": 0.7909, "boost_factor": 1.0105, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0074)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2086, "goals": 0.3105, "goal_rate": 0.3105, "shots_on_target": 0.7156, "total_shots": 1.3861, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "key_pass": 0.2957, "rating": 6.8489, "minutes": 23.92, "total_pass": 3.3431, "accurate_pass": 2.5259, "duels_won": 1.7383, "total_long_balls": 0.0633, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2892, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5464, "crosses_total": 0.1957, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.2322, "possession_lost": 3.0836, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.152, "aerial_lost": 1.137, "total_contest": 0.1676, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9626, "challenges_lost": 0.0633, "fouls": 0.4338, "fouls_drawn": 0.382, "assists": 0.0869, "assist_rate": 0.0869, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1203, "tackles": 0.3511, "clearances": 0.4021, "blocks": 0.0875, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1676, "xgot": 0.1583, "offsides": 0.1872, "ball_carries": 1.5567, "total_progression": 3.3838, "shots_off_target": 0.6727 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0074, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2658, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3923, "after": 1.3861 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.9 to 26.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.36)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2328, "goals": 0.3465, "goal_rate": 0.3465, "shots_on_target": 0.7985, "total_shots": 1.5492, "expected_assists": 0.0282, "key_pass": 0.33, "rating": 6.8489, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.7305, "accurate_pass": 2.8186, "duels_won": 1.9397, "total_long_balls": 0.0706, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5545, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7256, "crosses_total": 0.2184, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1862, "possession_lost": 3.4409, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.4014, "aerial_lost": 1.137, "total_contest": 0.187, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0742, "challenges_lost": 0.0633, "fouls": 0.4841, "fouls_drawn": 0.4263, "assists": 0.097, "assist_rate": 0.097, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1342, "tackles": 0.3918, "clearances": 0.4487, "blocks": 0.0976, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.187, "xgot": 0.1766, "offsides": 0.1872, "ball_carries": 1.7371, "total_progression": 3.7759, "shots_off_target": 0.7507, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.363, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.69, "projection_minutes": 23.92, "minutes_scale": 1.1159, "appearance_probability": 0.363 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2328, "goals": 0.3465, "goal_rate": 0.3465, "shots_on_target": 0.7985, "total_shots": 1.5492, "expected_assists": 0.0282, "key_pass": 0.33, "rating": 6.8489, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.7305, "accurate_pass": 2.8186, "duels_won": 1.9397, "total_long_balls": 0.0706, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5545, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7256, "crosses_total": 0.2184, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1862, "possession_lost": 3.4409, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.4014, "aerial_lost": 1.137, "total_contest": 0.187, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0742, "challenges_lost": 0.0633, "fouls": 0.4841, "fouls_drawn": 0.4263, "assists": 0.097, "assist_rate": 0.097, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1342, "tackles": 0.3918, "clearances": 0.4487, "blocks": 0.0976, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.187, "xgot": 0.1766, "offsides": 0.1872, "ball_carries": 1.7371, "total_progression": 3.7759, "shots_off_target": 0.7507, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.363, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.36 (squad xG sum 1.2208, xG scale 1.1107, xA scale 1.1107, team xA 1.05 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2586, "goal_rate": 0.3465, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7985, "total_shots": 1.5492, "expected_assists": 0.0313, "key_pass": 0.33, "rating": 6.8489, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.7305, "accurate_pass": 2.8186, "duels_won": 1.9397, "total_long_balls": 0.0706, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5545, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7256, "crosses_total": 0.2184, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1862, "possession_lost": 3.4409, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.4014, "aerial_lost": 1.137, "total_contest": 0.187, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0742, "challenges_lost": 0.0633, "fouls": 0.4841, "fouls_drawn": 0.4263, "assist_rate": 0.097, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1342, "tackles": 0.3918, "clearances": 0.4487, "blocks": 0.0976, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.187, "xgot": 0.1962, "offsides": 0.1872, "ball_carries": 1.7371, "total_progression": 3.7759, "shots_off_target": 0.7507, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.363, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.356, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2208, "squad_xa_sum": 0.945, "team_expected_assists": 1.0496, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7741, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1107, "xa_scale": 1.1107, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.363 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2328, "after": 0.2586 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2586, "goal_rate": 0.3465, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7985, "total_shots": 1.5492, "expected_assists": 0.0313, "key_pass": 0.33, "rating": 6.8489, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.7305, "accurate_pass": 2.8186, "duels_won": 1.9397, "total_long_balls": 0.0706, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5545, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7256, "crosses_total": 0.2184, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1862, "possession_lost": 3.4409, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.4014, "aerial_lost": 1.137, "total_contest": 0.187, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0742, "challenges_lost": 0.0633, "fouls": 0.4841, "fouls_drawn": 0.4263, "assist_rate": 0.097, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1342, "tackles": 0.3918, "clearances": 0.4487, "blocks": 0.0976, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.187, "xgot": 0.1962, "offsides": 0.1872, "ball_carries": 1.7371, "total_progression": 3.7759, "shots_off_target": 0.7507, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.363, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2748, "fifa_rank": 1112.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2586, "goal_rate": 0.3465, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7985, "total_shots": 1.5492, "expected_assists": 0.0313, "key_pass": 0.33, "rating": 6.8489, "minutes": 26.69, 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0.4036, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.8074, "xgot": 0.0698, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1334, "total_progression": 46.4402, "progressive_carries": 1.5026, "shots_off_target": 0.4099 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0384, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.5 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0848, "goals": 0.0884, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.9043, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "key_pass": 0.3396, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.3649, "accurate_pass": 5.8047, "duels_won": 1.4157, "total_long_balls": 0.442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.442, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1576, "crosses_total": 2.2218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3044, "possession_lost": 5.706, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2.2218, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8958, "won_contest": 0.8958, "ball_recovery": 1.0402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8178, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.52, "tackles": 0.52, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0402, "xgot": 0.0899, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6134, "total_progression": 59.8291, "progressive_carries": 1.9358, "shots_off_target": 0.5281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.37, "projection_minutes": 20.47, "minutes_scale": 1.2883, "appearance_probability": 0.608 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0848, "goals": 0.0884, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.9043, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "key_pass": 0.3396, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.3649, "accurate_pass": 5.8047, "duels_won": 1.4157, "total_long_balls": 0.442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.442, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1576, "crosses_total": 2.2218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3044, "possession_lost": 5.706, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2.2218, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8958, "won_contest": 0.8958, "ball_recovery": 1.0402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8178, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.52, "tackles": 0.52, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0402, "xgot": 0.0899, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6134, "total_progression": 59.8291, "progressive_carries": 1.9358, "shots_off_target": 0.5281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.36 (squad xG sum 1.2208, xG scale 1.1107, xA scale 1.1107, team xA 1.05 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0942, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.9043, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.3396, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.3649, "accurate_pass": 5.8047, "duels_won": 1.4157, "total_long_balls": 0.442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.442, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1576, "crosses_total": 2.2218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3044, "possession_lost": 5.706, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2.2218, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8958, "won_contest": 0.8958, "ball_recovery": 1.0402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8178, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.52, "tackles": 0.52, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0402, "xgot": 0.0999, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6134, "total_progression": 59.8291, "progressive_carries": 1.9358, "shots_off_target": 0.5281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0267, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.356, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2208, "squad_xa_sum": 0.945, "team_expected_assists": 1.0496, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7741, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1107, "xa_scale": 1.1107, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.608 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0848, "after": 0.0942 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0942, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.9043, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.3396, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.3649, "accurate_pass": 5.8047, "duels_won": 1.4157, "total_long_balls": 0.442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.442, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1576, "crosses_total": 2.2218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3044, "possession_lost": 5.706, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2.2218, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8958, "won_contest": 0.8958, "ball_recovery": 1.0402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8178, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.52, "tackles": 0.52, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0402, "xgot": 0.0999, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6134, "total_progression": 59.8291, "progressive_carries": 1.9358, "shots_off_target": 0.5281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0267, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2993, "fifa_rank": 1477.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0942, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.9043, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.3396, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.3649, "accurate_pass": 5.8047, "duels_won": 1.4157, "total_long_balls": 0.442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.442, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1576, "crosses_total": 2.2218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3044, "possession_lost": 5.706, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2.2218, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8958, "won_contest": 0.8958, "ball_recovery": 1.0402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8178, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.52, "tackles": 0.52, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0402, "xgot": 0.0999, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6134, "total_progression": 59.8291, "progressive_carries": 1.9358, "shots_off_target": 0.5281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0547, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0267, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0547, "scorer_weight": 0.0588, "squad_weight_total": 1.2716, "weight_share": 0.0462, "finishing_factor": 1.0267, "appearance_weight": 0.608, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Wilson Isidor", "weight": 0.2561, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2561, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2324 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0942, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.9043, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.3396, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.3649, "accurate_pass": 5.8047, "duels_won": 1.4157, "total_long_balls": 0.442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.442, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1576, "crosses_total": 2.2218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3044, "possession_lost": 5.706, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2.2218, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8958, "won_contest": 0.8958, "ball_recovery": 1.0402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8178, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.52, "tackles": 0.52, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0402, "xgot": 0.0999, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6134, "total_progression": 59.8291, "progressive_carries": 1.9358, "shots_off_target": 0.5281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0547, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0179, "finishing_factor": 1.0267, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0179, "provider_weight": 0.0145, "squad_weight_total": 1.0119, "weight_share": 0.0144, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.608, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thomas Meunier", "weight": 0.1964, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1964, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1623, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Wilson Isidor" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Habib Diarra": { "player_id": 1128532, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 179, "market_value": 37000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0541, "assist_rate": 0.0669, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0716, "goal_rate": 0.0479, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6721, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 2.2771, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0496, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0378, "finishing_factor": 0.855, "creation_factor": 1.1844, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1573, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0263, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023966, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1273, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1407, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023951, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.15, "expected_assists": 0.018, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023932, "match_date": "2026-04-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, 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"25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025026, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0445, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024021, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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"is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1369 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0201 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0176 } ], "others": 0.0032, "total": 0.272, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.549318 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.114252 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.097263 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.083526 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.067536 } ], "others_margin": 0.011668 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.745017409324646, "model_output": 0.745, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4841 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0677 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0571 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0357 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0201 } ], "others": 0.0982, "total": 0.745, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.484135 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.067691 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.057059 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.035667 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.020072 } ], "others_margin": 0.098343 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.672055244445801, "model_output": 6.6721, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0685 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0352 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0273 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0232, "total": 6.6721, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.06846 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.035187 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027309 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013497 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009118 } ], "others_margin": -0.023243 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6312, "expected_assists": 0.0533, "assists": 0.0714, "assist_rate": 0.0714, "expected_goals": 0.0705, "goals": 0.0525, "goal_rate": 0.0525, "shots_on_target": 0.2759, "total_shots": 0.7558, "rating": 6.6721, "minutes": 20.47, "total_pass": 7.4349, "accurate_pass": 6.6268, "duels_won": 0.8159, "total_long_balls": 0.5756, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3073, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9373, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9373, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6895, "crosses_total": 0.9768, "crosses_accurate": 0.2751, "touches": 12.0677, "possession_lost": 2.49, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.9225, "aerial_won": 0.3858, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.0845, "tackles": 0.2683, "clearances": 0.1987, "total_contest": 0.4402, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5845, "fouls_drawn": 0.1618, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3615, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1266, "total_progression": 20.6444, "progressive_carries": 0.8217, "shots_off_target": 0.4799 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 37000000, "quality_factor": 0.7641, "boost_factor": 1.0144, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0024)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6312, "expected_assists": 0.0533, "assists": 0.0731, "assist_rate": 0.0731, "expected_goals": 0.0705, "goals": 0.0524, "goal_rate": 0.0524, "shots_on_target": 0.2752, "total_shots": 0.7557, "rating": 6.6721, "minutes": 20.47, "total_pass": 7.4349, "accurate_pass": 6.6268, "duels_won": 0.8159, "total_long_balls": 0.5756, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3073, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9373, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9373, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6895, "crosses_total": 0.9744, "crosses_accurate": 0.2751, "touches": 12.0677, "possession_lost": 2.49, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.9225, "aerial_won": 0.3858, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0843, "tackles_won": 0.0843, "tackles": 0.2683, "clearances": 0.1987, "total_contest": 0.4402, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5849, "fouls_drawn": 0.1614, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3615, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1266, "total_progression": 20.6444, "progressive_carries": 0.8217, "shots_off_target": 0.4799 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0024, "history_matches": 22, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2274, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.5 to 18.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5772, "expected_assists": 0.0487, "assists": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0669, "expected_goals": 0.0645, "goals": 0.0479, "goal_rate": 0.0479, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.6911, "rating": 6.6721, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 6.0603, "duels_won": 0.7461, "total_long_balls": 0.5264, "accurate_long_balls": 0.281, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0276, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2886, "crosses_total": 0.8911, "crosses_accurate": 0.2516, "touches": 11.036, "possession_lost": 2.2771, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_won": 0.3528, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0771, "tackles_won": 0.0771, "tackles": 0.2454, "clearances": 0.1817, "total_contest": 0.4026, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5349, "fouls_drawn": 0.1476, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3306, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7738, "total_progression": 18.8795, "progressive_carries": 0.7515, "shots_off_target": 0.4389, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.72, "projection_minutes": 20.47, "minutes_scale": 0.9145, "appearance_probability": 0.718 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5772, "expected_assists": 0.0487, "assists": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0669, "expected_goals": 0.0645, "goals": 0.0479, "goal_rate": 0.0479, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.6911, "rating": 6.6721, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 6.0603, "duels_won": 0.7461, "total_long_balls": 0.5264, "accurate_long_balls": 0.281, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0276, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2886, "crosses_total": 0.8911, "crosses_accurate": 0.2516, "touches": 11.036, "possession_lost": 2.2771, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_won": 0.3528, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0771, "tackles_won": 0.0771, "tackles": 0.2454, "clearances": 0.1817, "total_contest": 0.4026, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5349, "fouls_drawn": 0.1476, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3306, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7738, "total_progression": 18.8795, "progressive_carries": 0.7515, "shots_off_target": 0.4389, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.36 (squad xG sum 1.2208, xG scale 1.1107, xA scale 1.1107, team xA 1.05 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5772, "expected_assists": 0.0541, "assist_rate": 0.0669, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0716, "goal_rate": 0.0479, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.6911, "rating": 6.6721, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 6.0603, "duels_won": 0.7461, "total_long_balls": 0.5264, "accurate_long_balls": 0.281, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0276, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2886, "crosses_total": 0.8911, "crosses_accurate": 0.2516, "touches": 11.036, "possession_lost": 2.2771, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_won": 0.3528, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0771, "tackles_won": 0.0771, "tackles": 0.2454, "clearances": 0.1817, "total_contest": 0.4026, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5349, "fouls_drawn": 0.1476, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3306, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7738, "total_progression": 18.8795, "progressive_carries": 0.7515, "shots_off_target": 0.4389, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.855, "creation_factor": 1.1844 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.356, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2208, "squad_xa_sum": 0.945, "team_expected_assists": 1.0496, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7741, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1107, "xa_scale": 1.1107, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.718 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0645, "after": 0.0716 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0487, "after": 0.0541 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5772, "expected_assists": 0.0541, "assist_rate": 0.0669, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0716, "goal_rate": 0.0479, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.6911, "rating": 6.6721, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 6.0603, "duels_won": 0.7461, "total_long_balls": 0.5264, "accurate_long_balls": 0.281, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0276, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2886, "crosses_total": 0.8911, "crosses_accurate": 0.2516, "touches": 11.036, "possession_lost": 2.2771, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_won": 0.3528, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0771, "tackles_won": 0.0771, "tackles": 0.2454, "clearances": 0.1817, "total_contest": 0.4026, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5349, "fouls_drawn": 0.1476, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3306, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7738, "total_progression": 18.8795, "progressive_carries": 0.7515, "shots_off_target": 0.4389, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.855, "creation_factor": 1.1844, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3071, "fifa_rank": 1436.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5772, "expected_assists": 0.0541, "assist_rate": 0.0669, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0716, "goal_rate": 0.0479, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.6911, "rating": 6.6721, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 6.0603, "duels_won": 0.7461, "total_long_balls": 0.5264, "accurate_long_balls": 0.281, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7717, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0276, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2886, "crosses_total": 0.8911, "crosses_accurate": 0.2516, "touches": 11.036, "possession_lost": 2.2771, "dispossessed": 0.3781, "duels_lost": 1.7581, "aerial_won": 0.3528, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0771, "tackles_won": 0.0771, "tackles": 0.2454, "clearances": 0.1817, "total_contest": 0.4026, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2014, "fouls": 0.5349, "fouls_drawn": 0.1476, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3306, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7738, "total_progression": 18.8795, "progressive_carries": 0.7515, "shots_off_target": 0.4389, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.718, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.72, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0496, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.855, "creation_factor": 1.1844, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0496, "scorer_weight": 0.044, "squad_weight_total": 1.2716, "weight_share": 0.0346, "finishing_factor": 0.855, "appearance_weight": 0.718, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Wilson Isidor", "weight": 0.2561, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2561, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2324 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5772, "expected_assists": 0.0541, "assist_rate": 0.0669, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0716, "goal_rate": 0.0479, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2517, "total_shots": 0.6911, "rating": 6.6721, "minutes": 18.72, "total_pass": 6.7993, "accurate_pass": 6.0603, "duels_won": 0.7461, "total_long_balls": 0.5264, "accurate_long_balls": 0.281, 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1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0496, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0378, "finishing_factor": 0.855, "creation_factor": 1.1844, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0378, "provider_weight": 0.046, "squad_weight_total": 1.0119, "weight_share": 0.0455, "creation_factor": 1.1844, "appearance_weight": 0.718, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thomas Meunier", "weight": 0.1964, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1964, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1623, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Wilson Isidor" ] } ] } } ] }, "Chris Rigg": { "player_id": 1394089, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 177, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0666, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, 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"history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0098, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3631, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assists": 0.041, "assist_rate": 0.041, "expected_goals": 0.04, "goals": 0.0392, "goal_rate": 0.0392, "shots_on_target": 0.1495, "total_shots": 0.3551, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 10.35, "total_pass": 2.1929, "accurate_pass": 1.4269, "duels_won": 0.1772, "total_long_balls": 0.224, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1211, "total_own_half_passes": 0.663, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.363, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.064, "crosses_total": 0.2085, "crosses_accurate": 0.0874, "touches": 3.3117, "possession_lost": 1.2571, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5422, "aerial_won": 0.1029, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1211, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0743, "total_contest": 0.1211, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0743, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1865, "total_progression": 6.1825, "progressive_carries": 0.448, "shots_off_target": 0.2056 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0098, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 20, "history_shrink": 0.2, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0017)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3631, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assists": 0.0409, "assist_rate": 0.0409, "expected_goals": 0.04, "goals": 0.0391, "goal_rate": 0.0391, "shots_on_target": 0.1492, "total_shots": 0.3545, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 10.35, "total_pass": 2.1929, "accurate_pass": 1.4269, "duels_won": 0.1772, "total_long_balls": 0.224, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1211, "total_own_half_passes": 0.663, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.363, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.064, "crosses_total": 0.2081, "crosses_accurate": 0.0874, "touches": 3.3117, "possession_lost": 1.2571, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5422, "aerial_won": 0.1029, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1209, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0743, "total_contest": 0.1211, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0742, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1865, "total_progression": 6.1825, "progressive_carries": 0.448, "shots_off_target": 0.2056 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0017, "history_matches": 20, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.115, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 10.3 to 15.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "assists": 0.0614, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "expected_goals": 0.06, "goals": 0.0587, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 3.2893, "accurate_pass": 2.1404, "duels_won": 0.2658, "total_long_balls": 0.336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1817, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5445, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.596, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1311, "touches": 4.9676, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8133, "aerial_won": 0.1544, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1813, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1115, "total_contest": 0.1817, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7798, "total_progression": 9.2737, "progressive_carries": 0.672, "shots_off_target": 0.3084, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.8, "projection_minutes": 10.35, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.711 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "assists": 0.0614, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "expected_goals": 0.06, "goals": 0.0587, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 3.2893, "accurate_pass": 2.1404, "duels_won": 0.2658, "total_long_balls": 0.336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1817, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5445, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.596, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1311, "touches": 4.9676, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8133, "aerial_won": 0.1544, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1813, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1115, "total_contest": 0.1817, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7798, "total_progression": 9.2737, "progressive_carries": 0.672, "shots_off_target": 0.3084, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.36 (squad xG sum 1.2208, xG scale 1.1107, xA scale 1.1107, team xA 1.05 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0666, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 3.2893, "accurate_pass": 2.1404, "duels_won": 0.2658, "total_long_balls": 0.336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1817, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5445, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.596, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1311, "touches": 4.9676, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8133, "aerial_won": 0.1544, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1813, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1115, "total_contest": 0.1817, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7798, "total_progression": 9.2737, "progressive_carries": 0.672, "shots_off_target": 0.3084, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9882, "creation_factor": 1.2096 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.356, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2208, "squad_xa_sum": 0.945, "team_expected_assists": 1.0496, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7741, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1107, "xa_scale": 1.1107, "opponent_lambda": 1.524, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.711 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.06, "after": 0.0666 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0666, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 3.2893, "accurate_pass": 2.1404, "duels_won": 0.2658, "total_long_balls": 0.336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1817, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5445, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.596, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1311, "touches": 4.9676, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8133, "aerial_won": 0.1544, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1813, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1115, "total_contest": 0.1817, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7798, "total_progression": 9.2737, "progressive_carries": 0.672, "shots_off_target": 0.3084, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9882, "creation_factor": 1.2096, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3744, "fifa_rank": 2694.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0666, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 3.2893, "accurate_pass": 2.1404, "duels_won": 0.2658, "total_long_balls": 0.336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1817, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5445, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.596, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1311, "touches": 4.9676, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8133, "aerial_won": 0.1544, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1813, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1115, "total_contest": 0.1817, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.0, 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"player": "Wilson Isidor", "weight": 0.2561, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2561, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2324 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0666, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 3.2893, "accurate_pass": 2.1404, "duels_won": 0.2658, "total_long_balls": 0.336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1817, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5445, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.596, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1311, "touches": 4.9676, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8133, "aerial_won": 0.1544, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1813, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1115, "total_contest": 0.1817, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7798, "total_progression": 9.2737, "progressive_carries": 0.672, "shots_off_target": 0.3084, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0458, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0325, "finishing_factor": 0.9882, "creation_factor": 1.2096, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, 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"tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2748, "combined_rank_score": 950.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 789.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.629, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 1112.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8489, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Brian Brobbey", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jon Karrikaburu", "ranking": 2743 }, { "player_name": "Cristopher Barrera", "ranking": 2744 }, { "player_name": "Vilius Armalas", "ranking": 2745 }, { "player_name": "Egor Parkhomenko", "ranking": 2746 }, { "player_name": "Ruiz de Galarreta", "ranking": 2747 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matías Campos López", "ranking": 2749 }, { "player_name": "Antonín Kinský", "ranking": 2750 }, { "player_name": "Austin Ludwik", "ranking": 2751 }, { "player_name": "Tae-in Jung", "ranking": 2752 }, { "player_name": "Mauro Icardi", "ranking": 2753 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.764, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", 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0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2735 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": -0.036, "total": 0.2927, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.520484 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.064717 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.054309 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.045732 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.033031 } ], "others_margin": -0.11588 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.848901271820068, "model_output": 6.8489, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1119 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0711 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.018 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0173 } ], "others": -0.0107, "total": 6.8489, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.111912 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.071147 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.021301 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.018023 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.01728 } ], "others_margin": -0.010631 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0105, quality 0.791)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2086, "goals": 0.3128, "goal_rate": 0.3128, "shots_on_target": 0.7196, "total_shots": 1.3923, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "key_pass": 0.2957, "rating": 6.8489, "minutes": 23.92, "total_pass": 3.3431, "accurate_pass": 2.5259, "duels_won": 1.7383, "total_long_balls": 0.0633, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2892, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5464, "crosses_total": 0.1972, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.2322, "possession_lost": 3.0836, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.152, "aerial_lost": 1.137, "total_contest": 0.1676, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9626, "challenges_lost": 0.0633, "fouls": 0.4328, "fouls_drawn": 0.3834, "assists": 0.0875, "assist_rate": 0.0875, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1212, "tackles": 0.3511, "clearances": 0.4021, "blocks": 0.0875, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1676, "xgot": 0.1583, "offsides": 0.1844, "ball_carries": 1.5567, "total_progression": 3.3838, "shots_off_target": 0.6727 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 42000000, "quality_factor": 0.7909, "boost_factor": 1.0105, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0074)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2086, "goals": 0.3105, "goal_rate": 0.3105, "shots_on_target": 0.7156, "total_shots": 1.3861, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "key_pass": 0.2957, "rating": 6.8489, "minutes": 23.92, "total_pass": 3.3431, "accurate_pass": 2.5259, "duels_won": 1.7383, "total_long_balls": 0.0633, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2892, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5464, "crosses_total": 0.1957, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.2322, 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"prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0092, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2685, "goals": 0.3292, "goal_rate": 0.3292, "shots_on_target": 0.8262, "total_shots": 2.2337, "expected_assists": 0.0668, "key_pass": 0.8173, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 80.66, "total_pass": 18.7708, "accurate_pass": 13.9228, "duels_won": 5.0286, "total_long_balls": 0.6947, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3249, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1245, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1123, "crosses_total": 0.811, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.3415, "possession_lost": 12.5309, "dispossessed": 1.7707, "duels_lost": 7.8442, "aerial_lost": 2.5661, "total_contest": 3.0775, "won_contest": 0.9905, "ball_recovery": 3.9844, "challenges_lost": 0.5191, "fouls": 1.1079, "fouls_drawn": 1.4297, "assists": 0.3509, "assist_rate": 0.3509, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 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10.859, "total_progression": 36.343, "progressive_carries": 1.836, "shots_off_target": 1.4075 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2842, "goals": 0.3455, "goal_rate": 0.3455, "shots_on_target": 0.8741, "total_shots": 2.365, "expected_assists": 0.0668, "key_pass": 0.8173, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 80.66, "total_pass": 18.7708, "accurate_pass": 13.9228, "duels_won": 5.0286, "total_long_balls": 0.6947, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3249, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1245, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1123, "crosses_total": 0.8105, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.3415, "possession_lost": 12.5309, "dispossessed": 1.7707, "duels_lost": 7.8442, "aerial_lost": 2.5661, "total_contest": 3.0775, "won_contest": 0.9905, "ball_recovery": 3.9844, "challenges_lost": 0.5191, "fouls": 1.1049, "fouls_drawn": 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"log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121677 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.047104 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.040247 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.038279 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.031853 } ], "others_margin": 0.005523 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.218780994415283, "model_output": 2.2188, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.7362 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3624 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2877 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 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"name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.091 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.046 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0307 } ], "others": -0.1039, "total": 0.6495, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.500245 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.125634 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116145 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.057067 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.039984 } ], "others_margin": -0.14831 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7824321389198303, "model_output": 0.7824, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1422 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0669 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0399 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0222 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0162 } ], "others": 0.0239, "total": 0.7824, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.142186 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.066872 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.03989 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.022244 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.016227 } ], "others_margin": 0.023881 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.825405120849609, "model_output": 6.8254, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0409 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0223 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0368, "total": 6.8254, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.040863 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.022306 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.01513 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011865 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.010704 } ], "others_margin": -0.036865 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0051, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7924, "tackles": 1.5919, "tackles_won": 0.9882, "clearances": 2.2301, "aerial_won": 0.6528, "total_shots": 0.7864, "rating": 6.8254, "minutes": 80.15, "total_pass": 37.5955, "accurate_pass": 32.3276, "duels_won": 2.7994, "total_long_balls": 2.8843, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3587, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3164, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0378, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.279, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2899, "crosses_total": 4.7673, "crosses_accurate": 2.0986, "touches": 54.7322, "possession_lost": 10.3099, "dispossessed": 0.1751, "duels_lost": 2.8257, "aerial_lost": 0.6989, "total_contest": 0.959, "won_contest": 0.4429, "ball_recovery": 3.4962, "challenges_lost": 0.3666, "fouls": 1.0691, "fouls_drawn": 0.8758, "blocks": 0.0116, "goals": 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"xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0071, quality 0.552)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1124, "expected_assists": 0.1179, "assists": 0.1219, "assist_rate": 0.1219, "expected_goals": 0.1855, "goals": 0.1776, "goal_rate": 0.1776, "shots_on_target": 0.7564, "total_shots": 1.8816, "rating": 6.8701, "minutes": 79.87, "total_pass": 27.2377, "accurate_pass": 22.9852, "duels_won": 5.151, "total_long_balls": 0.3915, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 9.3947, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7292, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.843, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.256, "crosses_total": 1.6227, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.7907, "possession_lost": 9.5033, "dispossessed": 0.3915, "duels_lost": 3.2474, "aerial_won": 0.6655, "aerial_lost": 0.783, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6744, "tackles": 1.6315, "clearances": 1.6227, 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"aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1631, "combined_rank_score": 660.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 199.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1122.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9033, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Diego Gómez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Cristian Avram", "ranking": 1626 }, { "player_name": "Vykintas Slivka", "ranking": 1627 }, { "player_name": "Roméo Lavia", "ranking": 1628 }, { "player_name": 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"importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1034 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0671 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0532 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0149 } ], "others": -0.0368, "total": 0.5872, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.277041 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.134245 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128609 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.09141 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.024141 } ], "others_margin": -0.060881 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.624483346939087, "model_output": 1.6245, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.453 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1629 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0765 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0521 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0401 } ], "others": -0.0464, "total": 1.6245, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.45301 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.16293 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.076479 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.052112 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.040081 } ], "others_margin": -0.046369 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.903285503387451, "model_output": 6.9033, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0351 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0301 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0133 } ], "others": 0.0134, "total": 6.9033, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.035127 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030066 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020608 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016858 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.013274 } ], "others_margin": 0.013412 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0068, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0505, "expected_assists": 0.1024, "assists": 0.1262, "assist_rate": 0.1262, "expected_goals": 0.1708, "goals": 0.2302, "goal_rate": 0.2302, "shots_on_target": 0.5911, "total_shots": 1.6355, "rating": 6.9033, "minutes": 80.33, "total_pass": 27.7147, "accurate_pass": 21.1562, "duels_won": 6.1481, "total_long_balls": 1.757, "accurate_long_balls": 0.842, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4331, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5464, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.2817, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6099, "crosses_total": 1.5109, "crosses_accurate": 0.4231, "touches": 44.7032, "possession_lost": 12.1438, "dispossessed": 1.3161, "duels_lost": 6.9521, "aerial_won": 3.0019, "aerial_lost": 2.37, "interceptions": 0.8402, "tackles_won": 1.3462, "tackles": 2.5829, "clearances": 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-0.025382 } ], "others_margin": -0.000272 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.831671237945557, "model_output": 6.8317, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.03 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0058 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0058 } ], "others": -0.0247, "total": 6.8317, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.029979 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.020103 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0100, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7373, "expected_assists": 0.0529, "assists": 0.0559, "assist_rate": 0.0559, "expected_goals": 0.1089, "goals": 0.125, "goal_rate": 0.125, "shots_on_target": 0.3797, "total_shots": 1.3252, "rating": 6.8317, "minutes": 86.21, "total_pass": 41.4581, "accurate_pass": 36.6178, "duels_won": 3.5731, "total_long_balls": 2.609, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6928, "total_own_half_passes": 19.514, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6288, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.944, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.9888, "crosses_total": 0.1893, "crosses_accurate": 0.0261, "touches": 54.5012, "possession_lost": 7.8462, "dispossessed": 0.8166, "duels_lost": 4.2926, "aerial_won": 0.3135, "aerial_lost": 1.1261, "interceptions": 0.7861, "tackles_won": 0.6551, "tackles": 1.3824, "clearances": 0.8841, "total_contest": 1.9195, "won_contest": 0.7799, "challenges_lost": 0.5548, "fouls": 0.6813, "fouls_drawn": 1.0972, "blocks": 0.1449, "big_chances_created": 0.0363, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1716, "ball_carries": 16.5604, "total_progression": 30.9975, "progressive_carries": 0.655, "shots_off_target": 0.9455 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 36000000, "quality_factor": 0.7581, "boost_factor": 1.01, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0040)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7373, "expected_assists": 0.0529, "assists": 0.0557, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "expected_goals": 0.1089, "goals": 0.1245, "goal_rate": 0.1245, "shots_on_target": 0.3782, "total_shots": 1.3308, "rating": 6.8317, "minutes": 86.21, "total_pass": 41.4581, "accurate_pass": 36.6178, "duels_won": 3.5731, "total_long_balls": 2.609, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6928, "total_own_half_passes": 19.514, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6288, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.944, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.9888, "crosses_total": 0.1885, "crosses_accurate": 0.0261, "touches": 54.5012, "possession_lost": 7.8462, "dispossessed": 0.8166, "duels_lost": 4.2926, "aerial_won": 0.3135, "aerial_lost": 1.1261, "interceptions": 0.783, "tackles_won": 0.6525, "tackles": 1.3824, "clearances": 0.8841, "total_contest": 1.9195, "won_contest": 0.7799, "challenges_lost": 0.5548, "fouls": 0.6895, "fouls_drawn": 1.0983, "blocks": 0.1449, "big_chances_created": 0.0363, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1716, "ball_carries": 16.5604, "total_progression": 30.9975, "progressive_carries": 0.655, "shots_off_target": 0.9455 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.004, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9579, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.6813, "after": 0.6895 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3252, "after": 1.3308 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7373, "expected_assists": 0.0529, "assists": 0.0557, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "expected_goals": 0.1089, "goals": 0.1245, "goal_rate": 0.1245, "shots_on_target": 0.3782, "total_shots": 1.3308, "rating": 6.8317, "minutes": 86.21, "total_pass": 41.4581, "accurate_pass": 36.6178, "duels_won": 3.5731, "total_long_balls": 2.609, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6928, "total_own_half_passes": 19.514, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6288, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.944, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.9888, "crosses_total": 0.1885, "crosses_accurate": 0.0261, "touches": 54.5012, "possession_lost": 7.8462, "dispossessed": 0.8166, "duels_lost": 4.2926, "aerial_won": 0.3135, "aerial_lost": 1.1261, "interceptions": 0.783, "tackles_won": 0.6525, "tackles": 1.3824, "clearances": 0.8841, 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"duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Enzo Le Fée", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.448, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0409, "skill_edge": 0.0318, "height_edge": -0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.7926, "defender_skill": 0.7219, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "market_value": 26000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.7219 } ], "xg_override": 0.1134 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3135, "after": 0.8 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3308, "after": 1.3852 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9455, "after": 0.9842 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3782, "after": 0.3937 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1716, "after": 0.1786 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1245, "after": 0.1296 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.3670, xG scale 1.1149, xA scale 1.1149, team xA 1.10 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7373, "expected_assists": 0.059, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1264, "goal_rate": 0.1296, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3937, "total_shots": 1.3852, "rating": 6.8317, "minutes": 86.21, "total_pass": 41.4581, "accurate_pass": 36.6178, "duels_won": 3.5731, "total_long_balls": 2.609, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6928, "total_own_half_passes": 19.514, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6288, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.944, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.9888, "crosses_total": 0.1885, "crosses_accurate": 0.0261, "touches": 54.5012, "possession_lost": 7.8462, "dispossessed": 0.8166, "duels_lost": 4.2926, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 1.1261, "interceptions": 0.783, "tackles_won": 0.6525, "tackles": 1.3824, "clearances": 0.8841, "total_contest": 1.9195, "won_contest": 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1.1149, "opponent_lambda": 1.356, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1134, "after": 0.1264 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0529, "after": 0.059 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7373, "expected_assists": 0.059, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1264, "goal_rate": 0.1296, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3937, "total_shots": 1.3852, "rating": 6.8317, "minutes": 86.21, "total_pass": 41.4581, "accurate_pass": 36.6178, "duels_won": 3.5731, "total_long_balls": 2.609, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6928, "total_own_half_passes": 19.514, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6288, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.944, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.9888, "crosses_total": 0.1885, "crosses_accurate": 0.0261, "touches": 54.5012, 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0.391386 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.156511 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.10212 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.070172 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.05881 } ], "others_margin": 0.018046 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.292761325836182, "model_output": 7.2928, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1373 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0942 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0728 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0469 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0454 } ], "others": 0.1411, "total": 7.2928, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.137253 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.094183 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.072798 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.046883 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.045449 } ], "others_margin": 0.141091 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 23, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9965, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.3562, "expected_assists": 0.1881, "assists": 0.239, "assist_rate": 0.239, "expected_goals": 0.2292, "goals": 0.2858, "goal_rate": 0.2858, "shots_on_target": 0.6556, "total_shots": 1.6641, "rating": 7.2928, "minutes": 89.66, "total_pass": 61.7049, "accurate_pass": 54.25, "duels_won": 2.3199, "total_long_balls": 5.059, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2199, "total_own_half_passes": 23.6811, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3588, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.0237, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.8912, "crosses_total": 6.5603, "crosses_accurate": 1.6718, "touches": 79.1851, "possession_lost": 14.4178, "dispossessed": 0.5953, "duels_lost": 3.8621, "aerial_won": 0.6905, "aerial_lost": 0.8042, "interceptions": 0.7503, "tackles_won": 0.9724, "tackles": 1.3724, "clearances": 0.9604, "total_contest": 0.2662, "won_contest": 0.1119, "challenges_lost": 1.159, "fouls": 1.2567, "fouls_drawn": 0.1451, "blocks": 0.1491, "big_chances_created": 0.6071, "big_chances_missed": 0.116, "xgot": 0.1744, "ball_carries": 24.2757, "total_progression": 82.5402, "progressive_carries": 1.0654, "shots_off_target": 1.0085 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2300000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9965, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0149)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.3562, "expected_assists": 0.1881, "assists": 0.2354, "assist_rate": 0.2354, "expected_goals": 0.2292, "goals": 0.289, "goal_rate": 0.289, "shots_on_target": 0.6532, "total_shots": 1.6467, "rating": 7.2928, "minutes": 89.66, "total_pass": 61.7049, "accurate_pass": 54.25, "duels_won": 2.3199, "total_long_balls": 5.059, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2199, 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"opponent_defenders": "Omar Alderete", "opponent_faced": "Omar Alderete", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Omar Alderete", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.37, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8385, "skill_edge": -0.0859, "height_edge": -0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.6282, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Omar Alderete", "market_value": 13800000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.6282 } ], "xg_override": 0.1922 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.6905, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.6617, "after": 1.3933 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.0085, "after": 0.8456 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6532, "after": 0.5477 }, { "stat": 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"name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.4561 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1098 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1061 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0829 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0338 } ], "others": -0.0399, "total": 0.7656, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.400532 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.126183 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122264 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.094143 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.041046 } ], "others_margin": -0.050958 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7752824425697327, "model_output": 0.7753, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2215 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0656 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0147 } ], "others": 0.0472, "total": 0.7753, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.221512 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.065623 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027824 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.016972 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.014662 } ], "others_margin": 0.04715 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.772095203399658, "model_output": 6.7721, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0291 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0224, "total": 6.7721, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.029144 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023025 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.018172 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.010955 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.010543 } ], "others_margin": -0.022481 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0083, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7646, "tackles": 1.2021, "tackles_won": 0.7912, "clearances": 2.4548, "aerial_won": 0.772, "total_shots": 0.7818, "rating": 6.7721, "minutes": 86.71, "total_pass": 38.7502, "accurate_pass": 33.4923, "duels_won": 2.2959, "total_long_balls": 2.5413, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4201, "total_own_half_passes": 15.4399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.7085, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.7838, "crosses_total": 1.653, "crosses_accurate": 0.1993, "touches": 55.3547, "possession_lost": 9.3745, "dispossessed": 0.2018, "duels_lost": 2.8228, "aerial_lost": 1.2223, "total_contest": 0.4736, "won_contest": 0.2285, "ball_recovery": 2.5849, "challenges_lost": 0.5039, "fouls": 0.66, "fouls_drawn": 0.8577, "blocks": 0.1685, "goals": 0.0419, 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true, "weight": 0.1516, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1289, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1095, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0931, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0791, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0673, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0572, "rating": 9.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0486, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0413, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-04", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 1.5886, "aerialWon": 1.5798, "totalClearance_p90": 1.8623, "totalTackle": 1.7946, "totalPass": 36.5929 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3927474319934845, "model_output": 0.3927, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4932 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0392 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.0001, "total": 0.3927, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.856275 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.102356 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.030114 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.029044 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.02519 } ], "others_margin": -0.000411 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.7831432819366455, "model_output": 0.7831, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7713 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0254 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0171 } ], "others": 0.0693, "total": 0.7831, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.806045 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.039938 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.037405 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.035018 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.024315 } ], "others_margin": 0.09284 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.573441207408905, "model_output": 0.5734, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4403 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0203 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0195 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0177 } ], "others": 0.077, "total": 0.5734, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.724284 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.058179 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.045265 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.041636 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.03623 } ], "others_margin": 0.144288 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.860450267791748, "model_output": 0.8605, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0682 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2647 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1011 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0619 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0513 } ], "others": -0.0437, "total": 0.8605, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.91441 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.212428 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.094752 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.06278 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.055217 } ], "others_margin": -0.049496 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.5841531753540039, "model_output": 0.5842, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7495 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1043 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0611 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0445 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0323 } ], "others": -0.0793, "total": 0.5842, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.781545 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.152678 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.086519 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.068074 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.049827 } ], "others_margin": -0.127512 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.18175950646400452, "model_output": 0.1818, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2749 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0068 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0057 } ], "others": -0.0214, "total": 0.1818, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.274948 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.019575 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.013684 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.006783 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.005738 } ], "others_margin": -0.021359 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.776253700256348, "model_output": 6.7763, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0279 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0106, "total": 6.7763, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.027942 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.020814 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.020356 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012876 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012848 } ], "others_margin": -0.010639 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0074, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3957, "tackles": 0.7889, "tackles_won": 0.5777, "clearances": 0.8668, "aerial_won": 0.5885, "total_shots": 0.1831, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 26.49, "total_pass": 16.3543, "accurate_pass": 13.3977, "duels_won": 4.0227, "total_long_balls": 1.1748, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3916, "total_own_half_passes": 5.7458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3542, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6085, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0435, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.8803, "possession_lost": 5.1388, "dispossessed": 0.3916, "duels_lost": 2.7892, "aerial_lost": 0.7244, "total_contest": 0.6158, "won_contest": 0.3328, "ball_recovery": 1.7318, "challenges_lost": 0.7244, "fouls": 0.6657, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.3328, "assist_rate": 0.3328, "expected_goals": 0.091, "expected_assists": 0.1231, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3328, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0592, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.7244, "shots_off_target": 0.1831 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0074, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0112)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4009, "tackles": 0.7889, "tackles_won": 0.5732, "clearances": 0.8668, "aerial_won": 0.5885, "total_shots": 0.1848, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 26.49, "total_pass": 16.3543, "accurate_pass": 13.3977, "duels_won": 4.0227, "total_long_balls": 1.1748, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3916, "total_own_half_passes": 5.7458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3542, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6085, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0435, "crosses_total": 0.0097, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.8803, "possession_lost": 5.1388, "dispossessed": 0.3916, "duels_lost": 2.7892, "aerial_lost": 0.7244, "total_contest": 0.6158, "won_contest": 0.3328, "ball_recovery": 1.7318, "challenges_lost": 0.7244, "fouls": 0.6602, "fouls_drawn": 0.0058, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.3291, "assist_rate": 0.3291, "expected_goals": 0.091, "expected_assists": 0.1231, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3328, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0592, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.7244, "shots_off_target": 0.1831 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0112, "history_matches": 28, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2943, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0097 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0058 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.6657, "after": 0.6602 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.3957, "after": 0.4009 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 26.5 to 14.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.24)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2193, "tackles": 0.4314, "tackles_won": 0.3135, "clearances": 0.4741, "aerial_won": 0.3219, "total_shots": 0.1011, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 14.49, "total_pass": 8.9442, "accurate_pass": 7.3272, "duels_won": 2.2, "total_long_balls": 0.6425, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2142, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1424, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9282, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.399, "crosses_total": 0.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3415, "possession_lost": 2.8104, "dispossessed": 0.3916, "duels_lost": 1.5254, "aerial_lost": 0.7244, "total_contest": 0.3368, "won_contest": 0.182, "ball_recovery": 0.9471, "challenges_lost": 0.7244, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.18, "assist_rate": 0.18, "expected_goals": 0.0498, "expected_assists": 0.0673, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.182, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4076, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.3962, "shots_off_target": 0.1001, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.236, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.49 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.49, "projection_minutes": 26.49, "minutes_scale": 0.5469, "appearance_probability": 0.236 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2193, "tackles": 0.4314, "tackles_won": 0.3135, "clearances": 0.4741, "aerial_won": 0.3219, "total_shots": 0.1011, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 14.49, "total_pass": 8.9442, "accurate_pass": 7.3272, "duels_won": 2.2, "total_long_balls": 0.6425, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2142, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1424, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9282, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.399, "crosses_total": 0.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3415, "possession_lost": 2.8104, "dispossessed": 0.3916, "duels_lost": 1.5254, "aerial_lost": 0.7244, "total_contest": 0.3368, "won_contest": 0.182, "ball_recovery": 0.9471, "challenges_lost": 0.7244, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.18, "assist_rate": 0.18, "expected_goals": 0.0498, "expected_assists": 0.0673, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.182, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4076, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.3962, "shots_off_target": 0.1001, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.236, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2193, "tackles": 0.4314, "tackles_won": 0.3135, "clearances": 0.4741, "aerial_won": 0.3219, "total_shots": 0.1011, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 14.49, "total_pass": 8.9442, "accurate_pass": 7.3272, "duels_won": 2.2, "total_long_balls": 0.6425, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2142, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1424, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9282, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.399, "crosses_total": 0.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3415, "possession_lost": 2.8104, "dispossessed": 0.3916, "duels_lost": 1.5254, "aerial_lost": 0.7244, "total_contest": 0.3368, "won_contest": 0.182, "ball_recovery": 0.9471, "challenges_lost": 0.7244, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.18, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0498, "expected_assists": 0.0673, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.182, "xgot": 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"league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024002, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0229, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024015, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1939, "combined_rank_score": 746.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 68.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.6, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1425.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.681, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Georginio 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}, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.159421 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.120997 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.04497 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.03879 } ], "others_margin": 0.097073 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8736072778701782, "model_output": 0.8736, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4339 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.074 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0546 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0345 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0304 } ], "others": 0.1235, "total": 0.8736, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.433941 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.074029 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.054634 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.034508 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.030361 } ], "others_margin": 0.123551 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.680994033813477, "model_output": 6.681, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0832 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0553 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0205 }, { "name": "totalPass", 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"importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4685 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0647 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0542 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0311 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0153 } ], "others": 0.0455, "total": 0.6244, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.468537 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.064658 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.05424 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.031098 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.015319 } ], "others_margin": 0.04568 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.734403133392334, "model_output": 6.7344, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0937 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0319 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0102 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.006 } ], "others": -0.0154, "total": 6.7344, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.093689 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031872 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.010308 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.010176 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.006019 } ], "others_margin": -0.015408 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 18, "role_matches": 10, 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}, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.037 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0268 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0236 } ], "others": 0.0725, "total": 0.5821, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.477322 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.129015 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.074869 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.053602 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.04749 } ], "others_margin": 0.132992 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.695783615112305, "model_output": 6.6958, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0759 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.021 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0262, "total": 6.6958, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.075874 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.021629 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.021024 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.019689 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.012788 } ], "others_margin": -0.026255 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0110, quality 0.791)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0602, "goals": 0.0618, "goal_rate": 0.0618, "shots_on_target": 0.2, "total_shots": 0.6505, "expected_assists": 0.072, "key_pass": 0.5885, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 27.84, "total_pass": 9.2183, "accurate_pass": 6.1351, "duels_won": 2.6453, "total_long_balls": 0.1572, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1572, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7814, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8318, "crosses_total": 2.9473, "crosses_accurate": 0.4524, "touches": 20.2925, "possession_lost": 8.1695, "dispossessed": 0.2441, "duels_lost": 3.4021, "aerial_lost": 1.0603, "total_contest": 2.3435, "won_contest": 1.0217, "ball_recovery": 1.1543, "challenges_lost": 0.4169, "fouls": 0.3591, "fouls_drawn": 0.3052, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1772, "tackles_won": 0.9034, "tackles": 1.1905, "clearances": 0.286, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0438, "offsides": 0.2558, "ball_carries": 6.7796, "total_progression": 27.4646, "progressive_carries": 1.7131, "shots_off_target": 0.4504 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 42000000, "quality_factor": 0.7909, "boost_factor": 1.011, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.8 to 26.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0577, "goals": 0.0593, "goal_rate": 0.0593, "shots_on_target": 0.1918, "total_shots": 0.6237, "expected_assists": 0.069, "key_pass": 0.5642, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 8.8382, "accurate_pass": 5.8821, "duels_won": 2.5362, "total_long_balls": 0.1507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1507, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6738, 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"goals": 0.0593, "goal_rate": 0.0593, "shots_on_target": 0.1918, "total_shots": 0.6237, "expected_assists": 0.069, "key_pass": 0.5642, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 8.8382, "accurate_pass": 5.8821, "duels_won": 2.5362, "total_long_balls": 0.1507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1507, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6738, "crosses_total": 2.8258, "crosses_accurate": 0.4337, "touches": 19.4557, "possession_lost": 7.8326, "dispossessed": 0.2441, "duels_lost": 3.2618, "aerial_lost": 1.0603, "total_contest": 2.2469, "won_contest": 0.9796, "ball_recovery": 1.1067, "challenges_lost": 0.4169, "fouls": 0.3443, "fouls_drawn": 0.2926, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1699, "tackles_won": 0.8661, "tackles": 1.1414, "clearances": 0.2742, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.042, "offsides": 0.2558, "ball_carries": 6.5, "total_progression": 26.3321, "progressive_carries": 1.6425, "shots_off_target": 0.4318, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.3670, xG scale 1.1149, xA scale 1.1149, team xA 1.10 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0643, "goal_rate": 0.0593, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1918, "total_shots": 0.6237, "expected_assists": 0.0769, "key_pass": 0.5642, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 8.8382, "accurate_pass": 5.8821, "duels_won": 2.5362, "total_long_balls": 0.1507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1507, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6738, "crosses_total": 2.8258, "crosses_accurate": 0.4337, "touches": 19.4557, "possession_lost": 7.8326, "dispossessed": 0.2441, "duels_lost": 3.2618, "aerial_lost": 1.0603, "total_contest": 2.2469, "won_contest": 0.9796, "ball_recovery": 1.1067, "challenges_lost": 0.4169, "fouls": 0.3443, "fouls_drawn": 0.2926, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1699, "tackles_won": 0.8661, "tackles": 1.1414, "clearances": 0.2742, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0468, "offsides": 0.2558, "ball_carries": 6.5, "total_progression": 26.3321, "progressive_carries": 1.6425, "shots_off_target": 0.4318, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0149, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.524, "squad_xg_sum": 1.367, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9894, "team_expected_assists": 1.103, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7238, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1149, "xa_scale": 1.1149, "opponent_lambda": 1.356, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.622 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0577, "after": 0.0643 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.069, "after": 0.0769 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0643, "goal_rate": 0.0593, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1918, "total_shots": 0.6237, "expected_assists": 0.0769, "key_pass": 0.5642, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 8.8382, "accurate_pass": 5.8821, "duels_won": 2.5362, "total_long_balls": 0.1507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1507, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6738, "crosses_total": 2.8258, "crosses_accurate": 0.4337, 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"assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0149, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1459, "fifa_rank": 699.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0643, "goal_rate": 0.0593, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1918, "total_shots": 0.6237, "expected_assists": 0.0769, "key_pass": 0.5642, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 8.8382, "accurate_pass": 5.8821, "duels_won": 2.5362, "total_long_balls": 0.1507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1507, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5018, 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"duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0027 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0024 } ], "others": 0.0131, "total": 0.0713, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.345977 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.13177 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.11941 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.048102 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.04153 } ], "others_margin": 0.204331 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5820972323417664, "model_output": 0.5821, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.037 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0268 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0236 } ], "others": 0.0725, "total": 0.5821, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.477322 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.129015 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.074869 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.053602 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.04749 } ], "others_margin": 0.132992 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.695783615112305, "model_output": 6.6958, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0759 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.021 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0262, "total": 6.6958, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.075874 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.021629 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.021024 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.019689 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.012788 } ], "others_margin": -0.026255 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0110, quality 0.791)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0602, "goals": 0.0618, "goal_rate": 0.0618, "shots_on_target": 0.2, "total_shots": 0.6505, "expected_assists": 0.072, "key_pass": 0.5885, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 27.84, "total_pass": 9.2183, "accurate_pass": 6.1351, "duels_won": 2.6453, "total_long_balls": 0.1572, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1572, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7814, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8318, "crosses_total": 2.9473, "crosses_accurate": 0.4524, "touches": 20.2925, "possession_lost": 8.1695, "dispossessed": 0.2441, "duels_lost": 3.4021, "aerial_lost": 1.0603, "total_contest": 2.3435, "won_contest": 1.0217, "ball_recovery": 1.1543, "challenges_lost": 0.4169, "fouls": 0.3591, "fouls_drawn": 0.3052, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1772, "tackles_won": 0.9034, "tackles": 1.1905, "clearances": 0.286, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0438, "offsides": 0.2558, "ball_carries": 6.7796, "total_progression": 27.4646, "progressive_carries": 1.7131, "shots_off_target": 0.4504 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 42000000, "quality_factor": 0.7909, "boost_factor": 1.011, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.8 to 26.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0577, "goals": 0.0593, "goal_rate": 0.0593, "shots_on_target": 0.1918, "total_shots": 0.6237, "expected_assists": 0.069, "key_pass": 0.5642, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 8.8382, "accurate_pass": 5.8821, "duels_won": 2.5362, "total_long_balls": 0.1507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1507, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6738, 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"goals": 0.0593, "goal_rate": 0.0593, "shots_on_target": 0.1918, "total_shots": 0.6237, "expected_assists": 0.069, "key_pass": 0.5642, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 8.8382, "accurate_pass": 5.8821, "duels_won": 2.5362, "total_long_balls": 0.1507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1507, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6738, "crosses_total": 2.8258, "crosses_accurate": 0.4337, "touches": 19.4557, "possession_lost": 7.8326, "dispossessed": 0.2441, "duels_lost": 3.2618, "aerial_lost": 1.0603, "total_contest": 2.2469, "won_contest": 0.9796, "ball_recovery": 1.1067, "challenges_lost": 0.4169, "fouls": 0.3443, "fouls_drawn": 0.2926, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1699, "tackles_won": 0.8661, "tackles": 1.1414, "clearances": 0.2742, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.042, "offsides": 0.2558, "ball_carries": 6.5, "total_progression": 26.3321, "progressive_carries": 1.6425, "shots_off_target": 0.4318, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.3670, xG scale 1.1149, xA scale 1.1149, team xA 1.10 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0643, "goal_rate": 0.0593, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1918, "total_shots": 0.6237, "expected_assists": 0.0769, "key_pass": 0.5642, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 8.8382, "accurate_pass": 5.8821, "duels_won": 2.5362, "total_long_balls": 0.1507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1507, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6738, "crosses_total": 2.8258, "crosses_accurate": 0.4337, "touches": 19.4557, "possession_lost": 7.8326, "dispossessed": 0.2441, "duels_lost": 3.2618, "aerial_lost": 1.0603, "total_contest": 2.2469, "won_contest": 0.9796, "ball_recovery": 1.1067, "challenges_lost": 0.4169, "fouls": 0.3443, "fouls_drawn": 0.2926, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1699, "tackles_won": 0.8661, "tackles": 1.1414, "clearances": 0.2742, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0468, "offsides": 0.2558, "ball_carries": 6.5, "total_progression": 26.3321, "progressive_carries": 1.6425, "shots_off_target": 0.4318, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0149, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.524, "squad_xg_sum": 1.367, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9894, "team_expected_assists": 1.103, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7238, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1149, "xa_scale": 1.1149, "opponent_lambda": 1.356, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.622 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0577, "after": 0.0643 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.069, "after": 0.0769 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0643, "goal_rate": 0.0593, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1918, "total_shots": 0.6237, "expected_assists": 0.0769, "key_pass": 0.5642, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 8.8382, "accurate_pass": 5.8821, "duels_won": 2.5362, "total_long_balls": 0.1507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1507, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6738, "crosses_total": 2.8258, "crosses_accurate": 0.4337, 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"assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0149, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1459, "fifa_rank": 699.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0643, "goal_rate": 0.0593, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1918, "total_shots": 0.6237, "expected_assists": 0.0769, "key_pass": 0.5642, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 8.8382, "accurate_pass": 5.8821, "duels_won": 2.5362, "total_long_balls": 0.1507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1507, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5018, 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creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0643, "goal_rate": 0.0593, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1918, "total_shots": 0.6237, "expected_assists": 0.0769, "key_pass": 0.5642, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 8.8382, "accurate_pass": 5.8821, "duels_won": 2.5362, "total_long_balls": 0.1507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1507, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6738, "crosses_total": 2.8258, "crosses_accurate": 0.4337, "touches": 19.4557, "possession_lost": 7.8326, "dispossessed": 0.2441, "duels_lost": 3.2618, "aerial_lost": 1.0603, "total_contest": 2.2469, "won_contest": 0.9796, "ball_recovery": 1.1067, "challenges_lost": 0.4169, "fouls": 0.3443, "fouls_drawn": 0.2926, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1699, "tackles_won": 0.8661, "tackles": 1.1414, "clearances": 0.2742, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0468, "offsides": 0.2558, 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"effective_weight": 0.2874, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2514 } ] } } ] }, "Evan Ferguson": { "player_id": 999231, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 28, "height": 188, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.098, "goal_rate": 0.0551, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.7547, "dispossessed": 1.3, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.029, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.075, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0555, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0208, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9646, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3599, "combined_rank_score": 1566.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 2688.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.2, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Evan Ferguson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Arijanet Murić", "ranking": 3594 }, { "player_name": "Puado", "ranking": 3595 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Alcaraz", "ranking": 3596 }, { "player_name": "Marash Kumbulla", "ranking": 3597 }, { "player_name": "Fidalgo", "ranking": 3598 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Moncayola", "ranking": 3600 }, { "player_name": "Pathé Ciss", "ranking": 3601 }, { "player_name": "Jon Mikel Aramburu", "ranking": 3602 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Neves", "ranking": 3603 }, { "player_name": "Carmona", "ranking": 3604 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.09746860076133, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5953394818527877, "market_value_adjustment": 0.6408, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€21,000,000) scaled to 26.1 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position F (quality 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.303, "goals": 0.19, "goal_rate": 0.19, "total_shots": 3.0, "shots_on_target": 1.6, "expected_assists": 0.11, "duels_won": 4.7, "aerial_won": 1.8, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 32.0, "accurate_pass": 24.0, "total_long_balls": 1.5, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0, "crosses_total": 1.8, "crosses_accurate": 0.8, "touches": 46.0, "possession_lost": 9.5, "dispossessed": 1.3, "duels_lost": 5.1, "aerial_lost": 1.5, "total_contest": 6.2, "won_contest": 3.4, "ball_recovery": 2.3, "challenges_lost": 1.5, "fouls": 1.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "assists": 0.1, "assist_rate": 0.1, "shots_off_target": 1.0, "key_pass": 1.1, "interceptions": 0.4, "tackles_won": 0.6, "tackles": 0.8, "clearances": 0.5, "blocks": 0.3, "big_chances_created": 0.11, "big_chances_missed": 0.18, "xgot": 0.232, "offsides": 0.9, "ball_carries": 23.0, "total_progression": 57.0, "progressive_carries": 6.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 26.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0879, "goals": 0.0551, "goal_rate": 0.0551, "total_shots": 0.8699, "shots_on_target": 0.464, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "duels_won": 1.3629, "aerial_won": 0.5219, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 9.2791, "accurate_pass": 6.9593, "total_long_balls": 0.435, "accurate_long_balls": 0.203, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2195, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7696, "crosses_total": 0.5219, "crosses_accurate": 0.232, "touches": 13.3387, "possession_lost": 2.7547, "dispossessed": 1.3, "duels_lost": 1.4789, "aerial_lost": 1.5, "total_contest": 1.7978, "won_contest": 0.9859, "ball_recovery": 0.6669, "challenges_lost": 1.5, "fouls": 0.464, "fouls_drawn": 0.435, "assists": 0.029, "assist_rate": 0.029, "shots_off_target": 0.29, "key_pass": 0.319, "interceptions": 0.116, "tackles_won": 0.174, "tackles": 0.232, "clearances": 0.145, "blocks": 0.087, "big_chances_created": 0.0319, "big_chances_missed": 0.0522, "xgot": 0.0673, "offsides": 0.9, "ball_carries": 6.6694, "total_progression": 16.5284, "progressive_carries": 1.7398, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.1, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.29, "appearance_probability": 0.595 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0879, "goals": 0.0551, "goal_rate": 0.0551, "total_shots": 0.8699, "shots_on_target": 0.464, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "duels_won": 1.3629, "aerial_won": 0.5219, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 9.2791, "accurate_pass": 6.9593, "total_long_balls": 0.435, "accurate_long_balls": 0.203, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2195, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7696, "crosses_total": 0.5219, "crosses_accurate": 0.232, "touches": 13.3387, "possession_lost": 2.7547, "dispossessed": 1.3, "duels_lost": 1.4789, "aerial_lost": 1.5, "total_contest": 1.7978, "won_contest": 0.9859, "ball_recovery": 0.6669, "challenges_lost": 1.5, "fouls": 0.464, "fouls_drawn": 0.435, "assists": 0.029, "assist_rate": 0.029, "shots_off_target": 0.29, "key_pass": 0.319, "interceptions": 0.116, "tackles_won": 0.174, "tackles": 0.232, "clearances": 0.145, "blocks": 0.087, "big_chances_created": 0.0319, "big_chances_missed": 0.0522, "xgot": 0.0673, "offsides": 0.9, "ball_carries": 6.6694, "total_progression": 16.5284, "progressive_carries": 1.7398, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.52 (squad xG sum 1.3670, xG scale 1.1149, xA scale 1.1149, team xA 1.10 = 0.72 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.098, "goal_rate": 0.0551, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 0.8699, "shots_on_target": 0.464, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "duels_won": 1.3629, "aerial_won": 0.5219, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 9.2791, "accurate_pass": 6.9593, "total_long_balls": 0.435, "accurate_long_balls": 0.203, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2195, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7696, "crosses_total": 0.5219, "crosses_accurate": 0.232, "touches": 13.3387, "possession_lost": 2.7547, "dispossessed": 1.3, "duels_lost": 1.4789, "aerial_lost": 1.5, "total_contest": 1.7978, "won_contest": 0.9859, "ball_recovery": 0.6669, "challenges_lost": 1.5, "fouls": 0.464, "fouls_drawn": 0.435, "assist_rate": 0.029, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0.29, "key_pass": 0.319, "interceptions": 0.116, "tackles_won": 0.174, "tackles": 0.232, "clearances": 0.145, "blocks": 0.087, "big_chances_created": 0.0319, "big_chances_missed": 0.0522, "xgot": 0.075, "offsides": 0.9, "ball_carries": 6.6694, "total_progression": 16.5284, "progressive_carries": 1.7398, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9646 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.524, "squad_xg_sum": 1.367, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9894, "team_expected_assists": 1.103, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7238, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1149, "xa_scale": 1.1149, "opponent_lambda": 1.356, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.595 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0879, "after": 0.098 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.098, "goal_rate": 0.0551, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 0.8699, "shots_on_target": 0.464, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "duels_won": 1.3629, "aerial_won": 0.5219, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 9.2791, "accurate_pass": 6.9593, "total_long_balls": 0.435, "accurate_long_balls": 0.203, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2195, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7696, "crosses_total": 0.5219, "crosses_accurate": 0.232, "touches": 13.3387, "possession_lost": 2.7547, "dispossessed": 1.3, "duels_lost": 1.4789, "aerial_lost": 1.5, "total_contest": 1.7978, "won_contest": 0.9859, "ball_recovery": 0.6669, "challenges_lost": 1.5, "fouls": 0.464, "fouls_drawn": 0.435, "assist_rate": 0.029, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0.29, "key_pass": 0.319, "interceptions": 0.116, "tackles_won": 0.174, "tackles": 0.232, "clearances": 0.145, "blocks": 0.087, "big_chances_created": 0.0319, "big_chances_missed": 0.0522, "xgot": 0.075, "offsides": 0.9, "ball_carries": 6.6694, "total_progression": 16.5284, "progressive_carries": 1.7398, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9646, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3599, "fifa_rank": 2688.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.098, "goal_rate": 0.0551, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 0.8699, "shots_on_target": 0.464, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "duels_won": 1.3629, "aerial_won": 0.5219, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 9.2791, "accurate_pass": 6.9593, "total_long_balls": 0.435, "accurate_long_balls": 0.203, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2195, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7696, "crosses_total": 0.5219, "crosses_accurate": 0.232, "touches": 13.3387, "possession_lost": 2.7547, "dispossessed": 1.3, "duels_lost": 1.4789, "aerial_lost": 1.5, "total_contest": 1.7978, "won_contest": 0.9859, "ball_recovery": 0.6669, "challenges_lost": 1.5, "fouls": 0.464, "fouls_drawn": 0.435, "assist_rate": 0.029, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0.29, "key_pass": 0.319, "interceptions": 0.116, "tackles_won": 0.174, "tackles": 0.232, "clearances": 0.145, "blocks": 0.087, "big_chances_created": 0.0319, "big_chances_missed": 0.0522, "xgot": 0.075, "offsides": 0.9, "ball_carries": 6.6694, "total_progression": 16.5284, "progressive_carries": 1.7398, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0555, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9646, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0555, "scorer_weight": 0.0466, "squad_weight_total": 1.6857, "weight_share": 0.0277, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.595, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3749, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3749, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2586 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pascal Groß", "weight": 0.2586, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2586, "runner_up": "Diego Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2561 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.098, "goal_rate": 0.0551, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 0.8699, "shots_on_target": 0.464, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "duels_won": 1.3629, "aerial_won": 0.5219, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 9.2791, "accurate_pass": 6.9593, "total_long_balls": 0.435, "accurate_long_balls": 0.203, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2195, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7696, "crosses_total": 0.5219, "crosses_accurate": 0.232, "touches": 13.3387, "possession_lost": 2.7547, "dispossessed": 1.3, "duels_lost": 1.4789, "aerial_lost": 1.5, "total_contest": 1.7978, "won_contest": 0.9859, "ball_recovery": 0.6669, "challenges_lost": 1.5, "fouls": 0.464, "fouls_drawn": 0.435, "assist_rate": 0.029, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0.29, "key_pass": 0.319, "interceptions": 0.116, "tackles_won": 0.174, "tackles": 0.232, "clearances": 0.145, "blocks": 0.087, "big_chances_created": 0.0319, "big_chances_missed": 0.0522, "xgot": 0.075, "offsides": 0.9, "ball_carries": 6.6694, "total_progression": 16.5284, "progressive_carries": 1.7398, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0555, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0208, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9646, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0208, "provider_weight": 0.0204, "squad_weight_total": 1.1906, "weight_share": 0.0172, "creation_factor": 0.9646, "appearance_weight": 0.595, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "weight": 0.2874, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2874, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2514 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 1.52, "expected_assists": 1.1, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 534, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.98, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Granit Xhaka", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 8500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.505, "defenders": [ "Olivier Boscagli" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.567, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.44, "xg_contribution": 0.0354, "xg_multiplier": 0.9409, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Olivier Boscagli", "role": "RB", "market_value": 13900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.56 } ], "duel_analysis": "Granit Xhaka (LW) is evenly matched against Olivier Boscagli in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Wilson Isidor", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 18500000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.616, "defenders": [ "Luka Vušković", "Ferdi Kadıoğlu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.809, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2398, "xg_multiplier": 0.8472, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luka Vušković", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Wilson Isidor (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Luka Vušković and Ferdi Kadıoğlu in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€18M vs €50M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.85 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.240 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Nilson Angulo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 16500000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.595, "defenders": [ "Luka Vušković", "Ferdi Kadıoğlu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.809, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1219, "xg_multiplier": 0.8217, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luka Vušković", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nilson Angulo (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Luka Vušković and Ferdi Kadıoğlu in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €50M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.82 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.122 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Enzo Le Fée", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Diego Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.368, "xg_contribution": 0.225, "xg_multiplier": 0.9239, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Diego Gómez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enzo Le Fée (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Diego Gómez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.225 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Noah Sadiki", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Diego Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.402, "xg_contribution": 0.0889, "xg_multiplier": 0.9743, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Diego Gómez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.598 } ], "duel_analysis": "Noah Sadiki (CDM) is evenly matched against Diego Gómez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.089 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Pascal Groß", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 2300000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Omar Alderete" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.566, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.37, "xg_contribution": 0.1922, "xg_multiplier": 0.8385, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Omar Alderete", "role": "RB", "market_value": 13800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.63 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pascal Groß (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Omar Alderete in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.84 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.192 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Malick Yalcouyé", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 12600000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.552, "defenders": [ "Enzo Le Fée", "Noah Sadiki" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1588, "xg_multiplier": 0.8559, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 37000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Malick Yalcouyé (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Enzo Le Fée and Noah Sadiki in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€13M vs €32M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.86 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.159 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Kevin Danso", "Thomas Meunier" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.531, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.24, "xg_contribution": 0.2842, "xg_multiplier": 1.0586, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kevin Danso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.76 }, { "player": "Thomas Meunier", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.76 } ], "duel_analysis": "Charalampos Kostoulas (ST) is evenly matched against Kevin Danso and Thomas Meunier in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €10M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.284 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Diego Gómez", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Enzo Le Fée" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "xg_contribution": 0.1838, "xg_multiplier": 1.0761, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.528 } ], "duel_analysis": "Diego Gómez (CDM) is slightly favored against Enzo Le Fée in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.08 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.184 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Yasin Ayari", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Enzo Le Fée" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.448, "xg_contribution": 0.1134, "xg_multiplier": 1.0409, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.552 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yasin Ayari (CDM) is evenly matched against Enzo Le Fée in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.113 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.652, "away_midfield_power": 0.636, "home_creative_power": 0.673, "away_creative_power": 0.539, "home_defensive_power": 0.65, "away_defensive_power": 0.637, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.506, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Enzo Le Fée", "Noah Sadiki", "Granit Xhaka" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Malick Yalcouyé", "Diego Gómez", "Yasin Ayari", "Pascal Groß" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.2, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.8, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.7, "home_throughball_threat": 2.6, "away_throughball_threat": 2.2, "key_personal_duel": "Noah Sadiki vs Yasin Ayari", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.003, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.992 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.356, "away_lambda": 1.524, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "CDM vs CDM" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Granit Xhaka": { "opponents": [ "Olivier Boscagli", "Yasin Ayari" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Wilson Isidor": { "opponents": [ "Luka Vušković", "Ferdi Kadıoğlu" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Nilson Angulo": { "opponents": [ "Luka Vušković", "Ferdi Kadıoğlu" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Enzo Le Fée": { "opponents": [ "Diego Gómez", "Malick Yalcouyé", "Yasin Ayari", "Pascal Groß" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Noah Sadiki": { "opponents": [ "Diego Gómez", "Malick Yalcouyé" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Omar Alderete": { "opponents": [ "Pascal Groß" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kevin Danso": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Thomas Meunier": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Robin Roefs": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas", "Yasin Ayari" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Nordi Mukiele": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Reinildo Mandava": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Olivier Boscagli": { "opponents": [ "Granit Xhaka" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Luka Vušković": { "opponents": [ "Wilson Isidor", "Nilson Angulo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ferdi Kadıoğlu": { "opponents": [ "Wilson Isidor", "Nilson Angulo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Diego Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Le Fée", "Noah Sadiki" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pascal Groß": { "opponents": [ "Omar Alderete", "Enzo Le Fée" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Malick Yalcouyé": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Le Fée", "Noah Sadiki" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Charalampos Kostoulas": { "opponents": [ "Kevin Danso", "Thomas Meunier" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yasin Ayari": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Le Fée", "Granit Xhaka" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bart Verbruggen": { "opponents": [ "Wilson Isidor", "Nilson Angulo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Maxim De Cuyper": { "opponents": [ "Wilson Isidor" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Lewis Dunk": { "opponents": [ "Nilson Angulo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Noah Sadiki vs Yasin Ayari will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.71, Away: 0.93. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8767, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1309, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1261, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9192, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9569, "home_midfield_factor": 1.003, "away_midfield_factor": 0.992, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5827, "away_avg_quality": 0.6408, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0581, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.3968, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.451, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.0138, "elite_count_gap": -1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1072, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.059, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0343, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.711, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8958 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.003, "result": 0.8984 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8984 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.0332 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9434, "result": 0.9747 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8767, "result": 0.8545 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9192, "result": 0.7855 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1309, "result": 0.9164 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9164, "result": 0.9164, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1072, "factor": 0.9657, "pre": 0.9164, "result": 0.885 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.885 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.105 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 2.4138, "result": 1.3563 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.3563, "result": 1.356, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.356 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.356, "result": 1.356, "available": false }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.356 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.356 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.356, "result": 1.356, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.356 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.9324, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0618 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.992, "result": 1.0533 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0533 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0533 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.2012, "result": 1.2652 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8989, "result": 1.1373 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9569, "result": 1.0882 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1261, "result": 1.2143 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.2143, "result": 1.2143, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1072, "factor": 1.059, "pre": 1.2143, "result": 1.2859 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.2859 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1903, "result": 1.4763 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 1.7241, "result": 1.5239 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.5239, "result": 1.524, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.524 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.524, "result": 1.524, "available": false }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.524 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.524 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.524, "result": 1.524, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.524 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1903, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Sunderland", "away_squad": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.5, "away_goals_per90": 2.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.414, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.724, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.356, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.524, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.3563, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.5239, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.356, "final_away_lambda": 1.524 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 14, "opponent_position": 3, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9434, "attack_index": 1.016, "defense_concede_index": 0.864, "form_multiplier": 0.97, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.43, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.22, "team_ppg": 1.09, "opponent_ppg": 1.64 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 3, "opponent_position": 14, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.2012, "attack_index": 1.297, "defense_concede_index": 1.193, "form_multiplier": 1.03, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.83, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.68, "team_ppg": 1.64, "opponent_ppg": 1.09 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Sunderland vs Brighton. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.356, Away 1.524). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.356, Away 1.524 (most likely score 1-2).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Sunderland", "away_squad": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.5, "away_goals_per90": 2.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.414, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.724, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.356, "away_lambda": 1.524, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.356, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.524 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-10T13:31:59Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }