{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261010", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.096, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Chelsea", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2275, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.096 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1036 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0801 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0754 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0656 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.044, "0-1": 0.0545, "0-2": 0.0352, "0-3": 0.0149, "0-4": 0.0048, "0-5": 0.0012, "1-0": 0.0801, "1-1": 0.1036, "1-2": 0.0656, "1-3": 0.0278, "1-4": 0.0089, "1-5": 0.0023, "2-0": 0.0754, "2-1": 0.096, "2-2": 0.0612, "2-3": 0.026, "2-4": 0.0083, "2-5": 0.0021, "3-0": 0.0468, "3-1": 0.0597, "3-2": 0.038, "3-3": 0.0161, "3-4": 0.0051, "3-5": 0.0013, "4-0": 0.0218, "4-1": 0.0278, "4-2": 0.0177, "4-3": 0.0075, "4-4": 0.0024, "4-5": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.0081, "5-1": 0.0104, "5-2": 0.0066, "5-3": 0.0028, "5-4": 0.0009, "6-0": 0.0025, "6-1": 0.0032, "6-2": 0.0021, "6-3": 0.0009, "7-0": 0.0007, "7-1": 0.0009, "7-2": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5119, "draw": 0.2275, "away_win": 0.2606 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6072, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3928, "btts_yes": 0.6094, "btts_no": 0.3906, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2797, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1549 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.83, "MCR": 7.09, "ATR": 6.75, "GK": 7.06 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.87, "MCR": 6.81, "ATR": 7.0, "GK": 6.88 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Chelsea vs Bournemouth. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers, Marcus Tavernier", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Morgan Rogers vs Tyler Adams). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.97, Away: 0.80. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.74, "home_lambda": 1.865, "away_lambda": 1.274, "h2h": { "available": false, "meetings": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_wins": 0, "draws": 0, "home_multiplier": 1.0, "away_multiplier": 1.0 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1036, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5119, "draw": 0.2275, "away_win": 0.2606 }, "favorite": "Chelsea", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5119, "fair_spread": 0.591, "fair_total": 3.139, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Chelsea", "estimate": 1.865, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Bournemouth", "estimate": 1.274, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6072, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6094, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Chelsea", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2797, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Bournemouth", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1549, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Morgan Rogers (Chelsea)", "estimate": 0.4904, "probability": 0.3876, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Rayan (Bournemouth)", "estimate": 0.259, "probability": 0.2282, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Cole Palmer (Chelsea)", "estimate": 0.2696, "probability": 0.2363, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth)", "estimate": 0.1839, "probability": 0.168, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.139, "expected_total_shots": 30, "expected_total_passes": 946, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.4, "possession_home_pct": 53.2, "possession_away_pct": 46.8, "notes": "Chelsea projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Chelsea", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5119, "script": "Chelsea is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.59 goals and fair total 3.14.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 15 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Bournemouth must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Chelsea lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Chelsea chance creation leans on Morgan Rogers against Lewis Cook in Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel; Chelsea projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Chelsea: starters carry the main goal usage through Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers; bench watchlist: Estêvão, Valentín Barco, Marco Palestra.", "Bournemouth: starters carry the main goal usage through Marcus Tavernier; bench watchlist: Eli Junior Kroupi, Alex Scott, Amine Adli.", "Assist usage should flow through Pedro Neto, Cole Palmer, Adrien Truffert; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Chelsea tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 15 total first-half shots, and 1.57 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Bournemouth is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Chelsea.", "Bournemouth wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Chelsea": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Pep Chavarría": { "player_id": 1010421, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 29, "height": 174, "market_value": 9700000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6723, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 37, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 70, "possession_lost": 14.3206, "dispossessed": 0.2128, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0027, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0092, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0279, "expected_assists": 0.1479, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0044, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 79, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Rayan", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0275, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1375, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363649, "match_date": "2026-09-18", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0397, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363641, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363257, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363249, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083682, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0176, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 46, "tackles": 1, 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.048 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0355 } ], "others": -0.1845, "total": 0.5489, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.232747 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120126 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.061002 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.047996 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.035457 } ], "others_margin": -0.184478 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.956640243530273, "model_output": 6.9566, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0872 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0321 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0283, "total": 6.9566, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.087199 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.032144 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.015754 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.013973 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.013105 } ], "others_margin": -0.028196 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0150, quality 0.895)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6647, "expected_assists": 0.0579, "assists": 0.0551, "assist_rate": 0.0551, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "goals": 0.0402, "goal_rate": 0.0402, "shots_on_target": 0.1314, "total_shots": 0.5571, "rating": 6.9566, "minutes": 86.5, "total_pass": 67.4694, "accurate_pass": 61.4545, "duels_won": 4.8681, "total_long_balls": 3.7352, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4176, "total_own_half_passes": 33.5146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.9261, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.9548, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.5284, "crosses_total": 0.1303, "crosses_accurate": 0.0098, "touches": 79.8581, "possession_lost": 8.1501, "dispossessed": 0.5156, "duels_lost": 4.0101, "aerial_won": 0.4352, "aerial_lost": 0.8736, "interceptions": 1.2669, "tackles_won": 0.794, "tackles": 1.8978, "clearances": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0140, quality 0.859)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7942, "tackles": 1.5251, "tackles_won": 0.8762, "clearances": 2.277, "aerial_won": 0.7188, "total_shots": 1.1436, "rating": 7.0017, "minutes": 88.75, "total_pass": 60.6615, "accurate_pass": 55.8139, "duels_won": 3.3018, "total_long_balls": 4.1512, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9314, "total_own_half_passes": 26.9452, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.8967, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.7162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.9171, "crosses_total": 6.1389, "crosses_accurate": 1.3687, "touches": 82.5411, "possession_lost": 12.2742, "dispossessed": 0.6652, "duels_lost": 2.5743, "aerial_lost": 0.2117, "total_contest": 0.6038, "won_contest": 0.258, "ball_recovery": 4.2791, "challenges_lost": 0.3146, "fouls": 1.0369, "fouls_drawn": 0.6129, "blocks": 0.3126, "goals": 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0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2187 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1862 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0861 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0803 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0676 } ], "others": 0.2037, "total": 1.5166, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.28098 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.18946 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.076822 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.066656 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.052886 } ], "others_margin": 0.144237 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.800649642944336, "model_output": 6.8006, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 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"Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0117, quality 0.848)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1239, "goals": 0.1678, "goal_rate": 0.1678, "shots_on_target": 0.5762, "total_shots": 1.4046, "expected_assists": 0.1344, "key_pass": 1.5344, "rating": 6.8006, "minutes": 81.97, "total_pass": 27.8009, "accurate_pass": 24.2814, "duels_won": 3.2247, "total_long_balls": 0.9623, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3497, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.2535, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.3385, "crosses_total": 5.157, "crosses_accurate": 1.1948, "touches": 46.1723, "possession_lost": 12.0398, "dispossessed": 0.7593, "duels_lost": 5.6541, "aerial_lost": 0.9974, "total_contest": 3.116, "won_contest": 1.2569, "ball_recovery": 2.5997, "challenges_lost": 0.9826, "fouls": 1.0557, "fouls_drawn": 0.5303, "assists": 0.1844, "assist_rate": 0.1844, "interceptions": 0.5939, 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"Kevin De Bruyne", "ranking": 72 }, { "player_name": "Silva Denisson", "ranking": 73 }, { "player_name": "Désiré Doué", "ranking": 74 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.769, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", 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"name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.7972 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2151 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.2037 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.1317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0794 } ], "others": 0.3016, "total": 2.7192, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.797242 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.215063 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.203676 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.131702 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.079441 } ], "others_margin": 0.301614 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.142596244812012, "model_output": 7.1426, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1122 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.069 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0433 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0252 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0195 } ], "others": 0.0245, "total": 7.1426, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.11224 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.069003 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.043291 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.025161 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.019525 } ], "others_margin": 0.024504 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 29, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0160, quality 0.890)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7665, "expected_assists": 0.177, "assists": 0.1491, "assist_rate": 0.1491, "expected_goals": 0.2369, "goals": 0.2655, "goal_rate": 0.2655, "shots_on_target": 0.8973, "total_shots": 2.7627, "rating": 7.1426, "minutes": 88.04, "total_pass": 34.7384, "accurate_pass": 29.4392, "duels_won": 4.2336, "total_long_balls": 2.5309, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2311, "total_own_half_passes": 9.563, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7923, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.1754, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.6469, "crosses_total": 1.1761, "crosses_accurate": 0.3021, "touches": 53.1737, "possession_lost": 12.5505, "dispossessed": 1.8338, "duels_lost": 4.9413, "aerial_won": 0.0945, "aerial_lost": 0.2011, "interceptions": 0.2975, "tackles_won": 0.3991, "tackles": 1.2477, "clearances": 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"source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 24, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0090, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2316, "tackles": 1.3505, "tackles_won": 0.7897, "clearances": 5.6552, "aerial_won": 2.2164, "total_shots": 0.4405, "rating": 6.8437, "minutes": 78.93, "total_pass": 49.5589, "accurate_pass": 45.5051, "duels_won": 4.9096, "total_long_balls": 2.4876, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4138, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8298, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8848, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7291, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6203, "crosses_total": 0.1313, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.0542, "possession_lost": 5.9437, "dispossessed": 0.2965, "duels_lost": 2.9238, "aerial_lost": 1.0814, "total_contest": 0.3833, "won_contest": 0.2396, "ball_recovery": 3.2784, "challenges_lost": 0.16, "fouls": 1.242, "fouls_drawn": 1.2011, "blocks": 0.642, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0151, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0.0421, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 17.5175, "total_progression": 53.9982, "progressive_carries": 0.4414, "key_pass": 0.2723, "shots_off_target": 0.3984 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0045)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2317, "tackles": 1.3505, "tackles_won": 0.7862, "clearances": 5.6552, "aerial_won": 2.2164, "total_shots": 0.4385, "rating": 6.8437, "minutes": 78.93, "total_pass": 49.5589, "accurate_pass": 45.5051, "duels_won": 4.9096, "total_long_balls": 2.4876, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4138, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8298, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8848, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7291, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6203, "crosses_total": 0.1307, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.0542, "possession_lost": 5.9437, "dispossessed": 0.2965, "duels_lost": 2.9238, "aerial_lost": 1.0814, "total_contest": 0.3833, "won_contest": 0.2396, "ball_recovery": 3.2784, "challenges_lost": 0.16, "fouls": 1.2365, "fouls_drawn": 1.1957, "blocks": 0.642, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0151, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0.0419, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 17.5175, "total_progression": 53.9982, "progressive_carries": 0.4414, "key_pass": 0.2723, "shots_off_target": 0.3984 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0045, "history_matches": 29, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.877, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Chelsea" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.242, "after": 1.2365 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.2011, "after": 1.1957 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2317, "tackles": 1.3505, "tackles_won": 0.7862, "clearances": 5.6552, "aerial_won": 2.2164, "total_shots": 0.4403, "rating": 6.8437, "minutes": 78.93, "total_pass": 49.5589, "accurate_pass": 45.5051, "duels_won": 4.9096, "total_long_balls": 2.4876, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4138, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8298, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8848, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7291, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6203, "crosses_total": 0.1307, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.0542, "possession_lost": 5.9437, "dispossessed": 0.2965, "duels_lost": 2.9238, "aerial_lost": 1.0814, "total_contest": 0.3833, "won_contest": 0.2396, "ball_recovery": 3.2784, "challenges_lost": 0.16, "fouls": 1.2365, "fouls_drawn": 1.1957, "blocks": 0.642, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0151, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0.0419, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 17.5175, "total_progression": 53.9982, "progressive_carries": 0.4414, "key_pass": 0.2723, "shots_off_target": 0.3984 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2317, "tackles": 1.3505, "tackles_won": 0.7862, "clearances": 5.6552, "aerial_won": 2.2164, "total_shots": 0.4403, "rating": 6.8437, "minutes": 78.93, "total_pass": 49.5589, "accurate_pass": 45.5051, "duels_won": 4.9096, "total_long_balls": 2.4876, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4138, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8298, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8848, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7291, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6203, "crosses_total": 0.1307, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.0542, "possession_lost": 5.9437, "dispossessed": 0.2965, "duels_lost": 2.9238, "aerial_lost": 1.0814, "total_contest": 0.3833, "won_contest": 0.2396, "ball_recovery": 3.2784, "challenges_lost": 0.16, "fouls": 1.2365, "fouls_drawn": 1.1957, "blocks": 0.642, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0151, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0.0419, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 17.5175, "total_progression": 53.9982, "progressive_carries": 0.4414, "key_pass": 0.2723, "shots_off_target": 0.3984, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.805, "opponent_faced": "Rayan", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Rayan", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.86 (squad xG sum 1.2245, xG scale 1.5231, xA scale 1.5231, team xA 1.46 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2317, "tackles": 1.3505, "tackles_won": 0.7862, "clearances": 5.6552, "aerial_won": 2.2164, "total_shots": 0.4403, "rating": 6.8437, "minutes": 78.93, "total_pass": 49.5589, "accurate_pass": 45.5051, "duels_won": 4.9096, "total_long_balls": 2.4876, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4138, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8298, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8848, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7291, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6203, "crosses_total": 0.1307, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.0542, "possession_lost": 5.9437, "dispossessed": 0.2965, "duels_lost": 2.9238, "aerial_lost": 1.0814, "total_contest": 0.3833, "won_contest": 0.2396, "ball_recovery": 3.2784, "challenges_lost": 0.16, "fouls": 1.2365, "fouls_drawn": 1.1957, "blocks": 0.642, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.023, "expected_assists": 0.0192, "shots_on_target": 0.0419, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0041, "ball_carries": 17.5175, "total_progression": 53.9982, "progressive_carries": 0.4414, "key_pass": 0.2723, "shots_off_target": 0.3984, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.805, "opponent_faced": "Rayan", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.865, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2245, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9572, "team_expected_assists": 1.4579, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7817, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5231, "xa_scale": 1.5231, "opponent_lambda": 1.274, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0151, "after": 0.023 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0126, "after": 0.0192 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2317, "tackles": 1.3505, "tackles_won": 0.7862, "clearances": 5.6552, "aerial_won": 2.2164, "total_shots": 0.4403, "rating": 6.8437, "minutes": 78.93, "total_pass": 49.5589, "accurate_pass": 45.5051, "duels_won": 4.9096, "total_long_balls": 2.4876, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4138, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8298, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8848, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7291, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6203, "crosses_total": 0.1307, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.0542, "possession_lost": 5.9437, "dispossessed": 0.2965, "duels_lost": 2.9238, "aerial_lost": 1.0814, "total_contest": 0.3833, "won_contest": 0.2396, "ball_recovery": 3.2784, "challenges_lost": 0.16, "fouls": 1.2365, "fouls_drawn": 1.1957, "blocks": 0.642, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.023, "expected_assists": 0.0192, "shots_on_target": 0.0419, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0041, "ball_carries": 17.5175, "total_progression": 53.9982, "progressive_carries": 0.4414, "key_pass": 0.2723, "shots_off_target": 0.3984, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.805, "opponent_faced": "Rayan", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1820, "fifa_rank": 873.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2317, "tackles": 1.3505, "tackles_won": 0.7862, "clearances": 5.6552, "aerial_won": 2.2164, "total_shots": 0.4403, "rating": 6.8437, "minutes": 78.93, "total_pass": 49.5589, "accurate_pass": 45.5051, "duels_won": 4.9096, "total_long_balls": 2.4876, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4138, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8298, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8848, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7291, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6203, "crosses_total": 0.1307, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.0542, "possession_lost": 5.9437, "dispossessed": 0.2965, "duels_lost": 2.9238, "aerial_lost": 1.0814, "total_contest": 0.3833, "won_contest": 0.2396, "ball_recovery": 3.2784, "challenges_lost": 0.16, "fouls": 1.2365, "fouls_drawn": 1.1957, "blocks": 0.642, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.023, "expected_assists": 0.0192, "shots_on_target": 0.0419, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0041, "ball_carries": 17.5175, "total_progression": 53.9982, "progressive_carries": 0.4414, "key_pass": 0.2723, "shots_off_target": 0.3984, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.805, "opponent_faced": "Rayan", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0227, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0227, "scorer_weight": 0.0184, "squad_weight_total": 2.0144, "weight_share": 0.0091, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Morgan Rogers", "weight": 0.6118, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6118, "runner_up": "Cole Palmer", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4375 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.4375, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4375, "runner_up": "Danny Welbeck", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2932 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2317, "tackles": 1.3505, "tackles_won": 0.7862, "clearances": 5.6552, "aerial_won": 2.2164, "total_shots": 0.4403, "rating": 6.8437, "minutes": 78.93, "total_pass": 49.5589, "accurate_pass": 45.5051, "duels_won": 4.9096, "total_long_balls": 2.4876, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4138, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8298, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8848, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7291, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6203, "crosses_total": 0.1307, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.0542, "possession_lost": 5.9437, "dispossessed": 0.2965, "duels_lost": 2.9238, "aerial_lost": 1.0814, "total_contest": 0.3833, "won_contest": 0.2396, 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{ "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.019, "provider_weight": 0.0154, "squad_weight_total": 1.4037, "weight_share": 0.0109, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Pedro Neto", "weight": 0.2559, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2559, "runner_up": "Cole Palmer", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2415 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.2415, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2415, "runner_up": "Morgan Rogers", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2274 } ] } } ] }, "Emiliano Martínez": { "player_id": 158263, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 195, "market_value": 11500000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0301, "rating": 7.0579, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 24, "total_long_balls": 17, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 46, 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"is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.6631 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363641, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.4391 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": 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"ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Matías Zaldivia", "ranking": 117 }, { "player_name": "Adrián de la Fuente", "ranking": 118 }, { "player_name": "Jaylan Hankins", "ranking": 119 }, { "player_name": "Marquinhos", "ranking": 120 }, { "player_name": "Jan Oblak", "ranking": 121 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Joan García", "ranking": 123 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Henrique", "ranking": 124 }, { "player_name": "Jung Seung-bae", "ranking": 125 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Badolato", "ranking": 126 }, { "player_name": "João Neves", "ranking": 127 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.769, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", 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"rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-18", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 87.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 8.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-15", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Tottenham 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0.3152, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0504 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0237 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0202 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.019 } ], "others": 0.0827, "total": 0.3152, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.416494 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.148171 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.110962 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.106882 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.085088 } ], "others_margin": 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{ "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.197405 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.117597 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.105157 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.082253 } ], "others_margin": 0.274398 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.173490047454834, "model_output": 7.1735, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1209 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0676 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.048 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0205 } ], "others": 0.0429, "total": 7.1735, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.120931 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.067604 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.047975 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.024702 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.020536 } ], "others_margin": 0.042871 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 42, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0124, quality 0.895)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6946, "expected_assists": 0.1606, "assists": 0.1425, "assist_rate": 0.1425, "expected_goals": 0.2495, "goals": 0.3191, "goal_rate": 0.3191, "shots_on_target": 1.0101, "total_shots": 2.5281, "rating": 7.1735, "minutes": 88.22, "total_pass": 29.965, "accurate_pass": 22.5791, "duels_won": 5.3296, "total_long_balls": 1.708, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2848, "total_own_half_passes": 7.2477, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6516, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7173, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9274, "crosses_total": 1.5123, "crosses_accurate": 0.1302, "touches": 49.3638, "possession_lost": 14.979, "dispossessed": 1.3478, "duels_lost": 6.6059, "aerial_won": 1.1861, "aerial_lost": 2.0705, "interceptions": 0.0914, "tackles_won": 0.5291, "tackles": 1.1626, "clearances": 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"Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Lewis Cook, James Hill", "opponent_faced": "Lewis Cook, James Hill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8903, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.865, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2245, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9572, "team_expected_assists": 1.4579, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7817, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5231, "xa_scale": 1.5231, "opponent_lambda": 1.274, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2162, "after": 0.3293 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0511, "after": 0.0778 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { 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"step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3293, "goal_rate": 0.187, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5642, "total_shots": 1.361, "expected_assists": 0.0778, "key_pass": 0.6689, "rating": 6.7055, "minutes": 74.92, "total_pass": 14.7207, "accurate_pass": 11.9913, "duels_won": 2.1403, "total_long_balls": 0.1665, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0841, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1725, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4103, "crosses_total": 0.0482, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.6958, "possession_lost": 5.3058, "dispossessed": 0.3841, "duels_lost": 3.2899, "aerial_lost": 0.8957, "total_contest": 0.835, "won_contest": 0.3283, "ball_recovery": 1.7528, "challenges_lost": 0.4267, "fouls": 1.0951, "fouls_drawn": 0.3467, "assist_rate": 0.0791, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2244, "tackles_won": 0.5501, "tackles": 0.8369, "clearances": 1.1587, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1905, "big_chances_missed": 0.269, "xgot": 0.4213, "offsides": 0.3251, "ball_carries": 4.0823, "total_progression": 6.4649, "progressive_carries": 0.4748, "shots_off_target": 0.7967, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8938, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.198, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Lewis Cook, James Hill", "opponent_faced": "Lewis Cook, James Hill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2806, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8903, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2806, "scorer_weight": 0.2932, "squad_weight_total": 2.0144, "weight_share": 0.1455, "finishing_factor": 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"G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 39, "height": 199, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.0372, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 5, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0236, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1651, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.15, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.31, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.648, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1454, "combined_rank_score": 600.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 1125.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mike Penders", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Samed Baždar", "ranking": 1449 }, { "player_name": "Curtis Jones", "ranking": 1450 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro García", "ranking": 1451 }, { "player_name": "Natan", "ranking": 1452 }, { "player_name": "Ayoze Pérez", "ranking": 1453 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "ranking": 1455 }, { "player_name": "Leonardo 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"accurate_pass": 1.3563, "total_long_balls": 0.5897, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2949, "touches": 2.064, "clearances": 0.0708, "ball_recovery": 0.0885, "high_claims": 0.0413, "punches": 0.0236, "aerial_won": 0.0472, "sweeper_actions": 0.0885, "sweeper_accurate": 0.059, "saves_inside_box": 0.0885, "possession_lost": 0.1651, "duels_won": 0.0295, "duels_lost": 0.0177, "total_contest": 0.0295, "won_contest": 0.0177, "fouls": 0.0118, "fouls_drawn": 0.0059, "total_own_half_passes": 1.4153, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1204, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.15, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.31 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 5.31, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.059, "appearance_probability": 0.15 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.2064, "goals_prevented": 0.0372, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 5.31, "total_pass": 1.7691, "accurate_pass": 1.3563, "total_long_balls": 0.5897, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2949, "touches": 2.064, "clearances": 0.0708, "ball_recovery": 0.0885, "high_claims": 0.0413, "punches": 0.0236, "aerial_won": 0.0472, "sweeper_actions": 0.0885, "sweeper_accurate": 0.059, "saves_inside_box": 0.0885, "possession_lost": 0.1651, "duels_won": 0.0295, "duels_lost": 0.0177, "total_contest": 0.0295, "won_contest": 0.0177, "fouls": 0.0118, "fouls_drawn": 0.0059, "total_own_half_passes": 1.4153, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1204, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.15, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.31 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.2064, "goals_prevented": 0.0372, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 5.31, "total_pass": 1.7691, "accurate_pass": 1.3563, "total_long_balls": 0.5897, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2949, "touches": 2.064, "clearances": 0.0708, "ball_recovery": 0.0885, 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"margin": 0.048714 } ], "others_margin": 0.343992 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.19658999145030975, "model_output": 0.1966, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2203 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0534 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0126 } ], "others": -0.0212, "total": 0.1966, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.220282 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.053351 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.019021 }, { "name": 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{ "player_name": "Santiago Londoño", "ranking": 2449 }, { "player_name": "Vasil Kušej", "ranking": 2450 }, { "player_name": "Vladimir Nikolov", "ranking": 2451 }, { "player_name": "Gianluca Scamacca", "ranking": 2452 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Charles Pickel", "ranking": 2454 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Otamendi", "ranking": 2455 }, { "player_name": "Walter Scott", "ranking": 2456 }, { "player_name": "Javier Rojas", "ranking": 2457 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Gómez", "ranking": 2458 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 26, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2156 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0752 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0647, "total": 0.1036, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.215597 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.075153 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018428 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.014621 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.008208 } ], "others_margin": -0.064731 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7161126136779785, "model_output": 6.7161, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0163, "total": 6.7161, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022926 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.015335 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.013505 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.011684 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.010694 } ], "others_margin": -0.016262 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0136, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3744, "tackles": 0.7465, "tackles_won": 0.5089, "clearances": 0.957, "aerial_won": 0.3827, "total_shots": 0.105, "rating": 6.7161, "minutes": 20.42, "total_pass": 13.1274, "accurate_pass": 12.4147, "duels_won": 1.1616, "total_long_balls": 0.2854, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1152, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2511, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9762, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8765, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4386, "crosses_total": 0.5666, "crosses_accurate": 0.4952, "touches": 18.8957, "possession_lost": 1.6046, "dispossessed": 0.0439, "duels_lost": 1.6946, "aerial_lost": 0.2033, "total_contest": 0.4941, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6773, "challenges_lost": 0.2599, "fouls": 0.6934, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1883, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 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0.1131, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1185 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0328 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0065 } ], "others": -0.0183, "total": 0.1131, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.455553 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.174105 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.143112 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.081974 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.04813 } ], 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"name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.025027 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020512 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.010766 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.005649 } ], "others_margin": -0.029334 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.2271, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.721, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.48, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.648, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.865, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2245, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9572, "team_expected_assists": 1.4579, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7817, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5231, "xa_scale": 1.5231, "opponent_lambda": 1.274, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.721 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0179, "after": 0.0273 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0207, "after": 0.0315 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking 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}, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5137 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.106 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0415 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0358 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0339 } ], "others": -0.0688, "total": 0.6468, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.513652 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.106005 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.04152 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.035771 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.033887 } ], "others_margin": -0.068835 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.028173226863145828, "model_output": 0.0282, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0059 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0015 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0014 } ], "others": -0.0024, "total": 0.0282, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.425351 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.151401 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.075909 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.046427 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.044266 } ], "others_margin": -0.081576 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3590029180049896, "model_output": 0.359, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2761 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0265 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0028, "total": 0.359, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.527105 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.068941 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.052259 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.04719 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.031428 } ], "others_margin": -0.00746 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.651857852935791, "model_output": 6.6519, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0678 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0122 } ], "others": -0.0062, "total": 6.6519, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.067825 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020199 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016633 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.012749 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.012172 } ], "others_margin": -0.006222 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0183, quality 0.884)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0598, "goals": 0.064, "goal_rate": 0.064, "shots_on_target": 0.3093, "total_shots": 0.6587, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.3656, "rating": 6.6519, "minutes": 14.77, "total_pass": 5.5006, "accurate_pass": 4.2955, "duels_won": 1.0204, "total_long_balls": 0.3879, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2748, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5634, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6042, "crosses_total": 0.8873, "crosses_accurate": 0.069, "touches": 9.7813, "possession_lost": 3.6439, "dispossessed": 0.2865, "duels_lost": 1.4009, "aerial_lost": 0.1381, "total_contest": 1.1926, "won_contest": 0.5559, "ball_recovery": 0.6361, "challenges_lost": 0.2328, "fouls": 0.1403, "fouls_drawn": 0.1782, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.113, "tackles_won": 0.0242, "tackles": 0.2862, "clearances": 0.0491, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0746, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0627, "offsides": 0.0824, "ball_carries": 3.3295, "total_progression": 21.9641, "progressive_carries": 1.0376, "shots_off_target": 0.3494 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 82000000, "quality_factor": 0.8837, "boost_factor": 1.0183, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.8 to 27.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0897, "goals": 0.096, "goal_rate": 0.096, "shots_on_target": 0.464, "total_shots": 0.9881, "expected_assists": 0.043, "key_pass": 0.5484, "rating": 6.6519, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 8.2509, "accurate_pass": 6.4432, "duels_won": 1.5306, "total_long_balls": 0.5818, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4122, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8451, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4063, 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0.0897, "goals": 0.096, "goal_rate": 0.096, "shots_on_target": 0.464, "total_shots": 0.9881, "expected_assists": 0.043, "key_pass": 0.5484, "rating": 6.6519, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 8.2509, "accurate_pass": 6.4432, "duels_won": 1.5306, "total_long_balls": 0.5818, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4122, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8451, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4063, "crosses_total": 1.331, "crosses_accurate": 0.1035, "touches": 14.6719, "possession_lost": 5.4658, "dispossessed": 0.2865, "duels_lost": 2.1014, "aerial_lost": 0.1381, "total_contest": 1.7889, "won_contest": 0.8338, "ball_recovery": 0.9542, "challenges_lost": 0.2328, "fouls": 0.2105, "fouls_drawn": 0.2673, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1695, "tackles_won": 0.0363, "tackles": 0.4293, "clearances": 0.0736, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1119, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0941, "offsides": 0.0824, "ball_carries": 4.9943, "total_progression": 32.9461, "progressive_carries": 1.5564, "shots_off_target": 0.5241, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.86 (squad xG sum 1.2245, xG scale 1.5231, xA scale 1.5231, team xA 1.46 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1366, "goal_rate": 0.096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.464, "total_shots": 0.9881, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "key_pass": 0.5484, "rating": 6.6519, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 8.2509, "accurate_pass": 6.4432, "duels_won": 1.5306, "total_long_balls": 0.5818, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4122, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8451, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4063, "crosses_total": 1.331, "crosses_accurate": 0.1035, "touches": 14.6719, "possession_lost": 5.4658, "dispossessed": 0.2865, "duels_lost": 2.1014, "aerial_lost": 0.1381, "total_contest": 1.7889, "won_contest": 0.8338, "ball_recovery": 0.9542, "challenges_lost": 0.2328, "fouls": 0.2105, "fouls_drawn": 0.2673, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1695, "tackles_won": 0.0363, "tackles": 0.4293, "clearances": 0.0736, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1119, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1433, "offsides": 0.0824, "ball_carries": 4.9943, "total_progression": 32.9461, "progressive_carries": 1.5564, "shots_off_target": 0.5241, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.648, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0451, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.865, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2245, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9572, "team_expected_assists": 1.4579, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7817, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5231, "xa_scale": 1.5231, "opponent_lambda": 1.274, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.639 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0897, "after": 0.1366 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.043, "after": 0.0655 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1366, "goal_rate": 0.096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.464, "total_shots": 0.9881, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "key_pass": 0.5484, "rating": 6.6519, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 8.2509, "accurate_pass": 6.4432, "duels_won": 1.5306, "total_long_balls": 0.5818, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4122, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8451, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4063, "crosses_total": 1.331, "crosses_accurate": 0.1035, "touches": 14.6719, "possession_lost": 5.4658, "dispossessed": 0.2865, "duels_lost": 2.1014, "aerial_lost": 0.1381, "total_contest": 1.7889, "won_contest": 0.8338, "ball_recovery": 0.9542, "challenges_lost": 0.2328, "fouls": 0.2105, "fouls_drawn": 0.2673, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1695, "tackles_won": 0.0363, "tackles": 0.4293, "clearances": 0.0736, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1119, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1433, "offsides": 0.0824, "ball_carries": 4.9943, "total_progression": 32.9461, "progressive_carries": 1.5564, "shots_off_target": 0.5241, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.648, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0451, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1445, "fifa_rank": 661.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1366, "goal_rate": 0.096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.464, "total_shots": 0.9881, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "key_pass": 0.5484, "rating": 6.6519, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 8.2509, "accurate_pass": 6.4432, "duels_won": 1.5306, "total_long_balls": 0.5818, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4122, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8451, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4063, "crosses_total": 1.331, "crosses_accurate": 0.1035, "touches": 14.6719, "possession_lost": 5.4658, "dispossessed": 0.2865, "duels_lost": 2.1014, "aerial_lost": 0.1381, "total_contest": 1.7889, "won_contest": 0.8338, "ball_recovery": 0.9542, "challenges_lost": 0.2328, "fouls": 0.2105, "fouls_drawn": 0.2673, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1695, "tackles_won": 0.0363, "tackles": 0.4293, "clearances": 0.0736, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1119, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1433, "offsides": 0.0824, "ball_carries": 4.9943, "total_progression": 32.9461, "progressive_carries": 1.5564, "shots_off_target": 0.5241, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.648, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0816, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0451, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0816, "scorer_weight": 0.0912, "squad_weight_total": 2.0144, "weight_share": 0.0453, "finishing_factor": 1.0451, "appearance_weight": 0.639, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Morgan Rogers", "weight": 0.6118, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6118, "runner_up": "Cole Palmer", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4375 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.4375, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4375, "runner_up": "Danny Welbeck", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2932 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1366, "goal_rate": 0.096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.464, "total_shots": 0.9881, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "key_pass": 0.5484, "rating": 6.6519, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 8.2509, "accurate_pass": 6.4432, "duels_won": 1.5306, "total_long_balls": 0.5818, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4122, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8451, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4063, "crosses_total": 1.331, "crosses_accurate": 0.1035, "touches": 14.6719, "possession_lost": 5.4658, "dispossessed": 0.2865, "duels_lost": 2.1014, "aerial_lost": 0.1381, "total_contest": 1.7889, "won_contest": 0.8338, "ball_recovery": 0.9542, "challenges_lost": 0.2328, "fouls": 0.2105, "fouls_drawn": 0.2673, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1695, "tackles_won": 0.0363, "tackles": 0.4293, "clearances": 0.0736, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1119, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1433, "offsides": 0.0824, "ball_carries": 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"contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.002, "total": 0.0352, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.415544 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.161092 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.147959 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.066626 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": -0.052695 } ], "others_margin": -0.055635 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.637961745262146, "model_output": 0.638, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2431 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0718 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0614 }, { "name": "wasFouled", "contribution": 0.0293 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0258 } ], "others": 0.0188, "total": 0.638, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.447328 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.154086 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.115306 }, { "name": "wasFouled", "margin": 0.050587 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.042585 } ], "others_margin": 0.029846 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.926827430725098, "model_output": 6.9268, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0791 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0558 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0286 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0214 } ], "others": 0.108, "total": 6.9268, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.079086 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.055815 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.029922 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.028563 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.021429 } ], "others_margin": 0.108023 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0126, quality 0.876)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1664, "goals": 0.2138, "goal_rate": 0.2138, "shots_on_target": 0.3752, "total_shots": 1.0906, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "key_pass": 0.646, "rating": 6.9268, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 11.972, "accurate_pass": 8.7639, "duels_won": 2.3, "total_long_balls": 0.4592, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2297, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2281, "crosses_total": 0.5129, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.0202, "possession_lost": 6.6185, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9908, "aerial_lost": 0.9305, "total_contest": 0.777, "won_contest": 0.2296, "ball_recovery": 1.7871, "challenges_lost": 0.1951, "fouls": 0.3178, "fouls_drawn": 0.7425, "assists": 0.3178, "assist_rate": 0.3178, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.513, "tackles": 0.7081, "clearances": 0.3178, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2929, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8984, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.5688, "shots_off_target": 0.7153 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 74000000, "quality_factor": 0.8759, "boost_factor": 1.0126, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0098)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1664, "goals": 0.2146, "goal_rate": 0.2146, "shots_on_target": 0.3759, "total_shots": 1.0931, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "key_pass": 0.646, "rating": 6.9268, "minutes": 26.94, "total_pass": 11.972, "accurate_pass": 8.7639, "duels_won": 2.3, "total_long_balls": 0.4592, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2297, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2281, "crosses_total": 0.5078, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.0202, "possession_lost": 6.6185, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9908, "aerial_lost": 0.9305, "total_contest": 0.777, "won_contest": 0.2296, "ball_recovery": 1.7871, "challenges_lost": 0.1951, "fouls": 0.3176, "fouls_drawn": 0.7426, "assists": 0.3176, "assist_rate": 0.3176, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5094, "tackles": 0.7081, "clearances": 0.3178, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2929, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8984, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.5688, "shots_off_target": 0.7153 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0098, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2993, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Chelsea" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.5129, "after": 0.5078 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 26.9 to 27.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 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"progressive_carries": 0.5707, "shots_off_target": 0.7176, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.369, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.03 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.03, "projection_minutes": 26.94, "minutes_scale": 1.0033, "appearance_probability": 0.369 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1669, "goals": 0.2153, "goal_rate": 0.2153, "shots_on_target": 0.3771, "total_shots": 1.0967, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "key_pass": 0.6481, "rating": 6.9268, "minutes": 27.03, "total_pass": 12.0113, "accurate_pass": 8.7927, "duels_won": 2.3076, "total_long_balls": 0.4607, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2305, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4672, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2485, "crosses_total": 0.5095, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.0892, "possession_lost": 6.6402, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9973, "aerial_lost": 0.9305, "total_contest": 0.7796, "won_contest": 0.2304, "ball_recovery": 1.793, "challenges_lost": 0.1951, "fouls": 0.3186, "fouls_drawn": 0.745, "assists": 0.3186, "assist_rate": 0.3186, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5111, "tackles": 0.7104, "clearances": 0.3188, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2939, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9178, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.5707, "shots_off_target": 0.7176, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.369, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.03 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1669, "goal_rate": 0.2153, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3771, "total_shots": 1.0967, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "key_pass": 0.6481, "rating": 6.9268, "minutes": 27.03, "total_pass": 12.0113, "accurate_pass": 8.7927, "duels_won": 2.3076, "total_long_balls": 0.4607, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2305, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4672, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2485, "crosses_total": 0.5095, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.0892, "possession_lost": 6.6402, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9973, "aerial_lost": 0.9305, "total_contest": 0.7796, "won_contest": 0.2304, "ball_recovery": 1.793, "challenges_lost": 0.1951, "fouls": 0.3186, "fouls_drawn": 0.745, "assist_rate": 0.3186, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5111, "tackles": 0.7104, "clearances": 0.3188, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2939, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9178, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.5707, "shots_off_target": 0.7176, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.369, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.03, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.648, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.369, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1669, "goal_rate": 0.2153, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3771, "total_shots": 1.0967, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "key_pass": 0.6481, "rating": 6.9268, "minutes": 27.03, "total_pass": 12.0113, "accurate_pass": 8.7927, "duels_won": 2.3076, "total_long_balls": 0.4607, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2305, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4672, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2485, "crosses_total": 0.5095, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.0892, "possession_lost": 6.6402, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9973, "aerial_lost": 0.9305, "total_contest": 0.7796, "won_contest": 0.2304, "ball_recovery": 1.793, "challenges_lost": 0.1951, "fouls": 0.3186, "fouls_drawn": 0.745, "assist_rate": 0.3186, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5111, "tackles": 0.7104, "clearances": 0.3188, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2939, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9178, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.5707, "shots_off_target": 0.7176, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.369, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.03, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.648, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 173, "fifa_rank": 275.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Valentín Barco": { "player_id": 1127057, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 172, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "assist_rate": 0.045, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0273, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7294, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 27, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 37, "possession_lost": 4.835, "dispossessed": 1.1077, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.721, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.48, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.648, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0194, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0224, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363649, "match_date": "2026-09-18", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 48, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363641, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0904, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 28, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363249, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0416, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2683, "combined_rank_score": 937.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 988.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.2, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 886.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7294, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Valentín Barco", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Keny Arroyo", "ranking": 2678 }, { "player_name": "Carles Gil", "ranking": 2679 }, { "player_name": "Petar Musa", "ranking": 2680 }, { "player_name": "Štěpán Chaloupek", "ranking": 2681 }, { "player_name": "Park Tae-yong", "ranking": 2682 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Denis Bouanga", "ranking": 2684 }, { "player_name": "Paulo Gazzaniga", "ranking": 2685 }, { "player_name": "Evander", "ranking": 2686 }, { "player_name": "Leny Yoro", "ranking": 2687 }, { "player_name": "Josh Cullen", "ranking": 2688 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.439, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.439, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 15.48, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.721, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0554, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Chelsea", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 9.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (3 historical appearances) to 15.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.72); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 9.0 mins/sub." }, 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1185 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0328 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0065 } ], "others": -0.0183, "total": 0.1131, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.455553 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.174105 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.143112 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.081974 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.04813 } ], "others_margin": -0.14965 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3494460880756378, "model_output": 0.3494, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3402 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0829 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0446 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0345 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0284 } ], "others": -0.1105, "total": 0.3494, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.340162 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.082916 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.04459 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.034514 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.028438 } ], "others_margin": -0.110399 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.729370594024658, "model_output": 6.7294, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0998 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.025 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0056 } ], "others": -0.0294, "total": 6.7294, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.099797 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.025027 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020512 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.010766 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.005649 } ], "others_margin": -0.029334 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0554, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3201, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "assists": 0.0496, "assist_rate": 0.0496, "expected_goals": 0.0197, "goals": 0.0395, "goal_rate": 0.0395, "shots_on_target": 0.1194, "total_shots": 0.3689, "rating": 6.7294, "minutes": 17.01, "total_pass": 32.1441, "accurate_pass": 29.4568, "duels_won": 3.5077, "total_long_balls": 1.9897, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1693, "total_own_half_passes": 12.2053, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4463, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9387, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0105, "crosses_total": 1.1077, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.5113, "possession_lost": 5.3129, "dispossessed": 1.1077, "duels_lost": 2.4595, "aerial_won": 0.7589, "aerial_lost": 0.2965, "interceptions": 1.4656, "tackles_won": 1.2308, "tackles": 1.2308, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4102, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6452, "fouls_drawn": 1.518, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0401, "total_progression": 26.5753, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2495 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0554, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0027)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3201, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "assists": 0.0495, "assist_rate": 0.0495, "expected_goals": 0.0197, "goals": 0.0394, "goal_rate": 0.0394, "shots_on_target": 0.1191, "total_shots": 0.373, "rating": 6.7294, "minutes": 17.01, "total_pass": 32.1441, "accurate_pass": 29.4568, "duels_won": 3.5077, "total_long_balls": 1.9897, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1693, 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17.0 to 15.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2913, "expected_assists": 0.0207, "assists": 0.045, "assist_rate": 0.045, "expected_goals": 0.0179, "goals": 0.0359, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "shots_on_target": 0.1084, "total_shots": 0.3394, "rating": 6.7294, "minutes": 15.48, "total_pass": 29.2528, "accurate_pass": 26.8072, "duels_won": 3.1922, "total_long_balls": 1.8107, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0641, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1075, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4167, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3905, "crosses_total": 1.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.8674, "possession_lost": 4.835, "dispossessed": 1.1077, "duels_lost": 2.2383, "aerial_won": 0.6906, "aerial_lost": 0.2965, "interceptions": 1.3349, "tackles_won": 1.117, "tackles": 1.1201, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3733, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5903, "fouls_drawn": 1.3777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.137, "total_progression": 24.1849, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2271, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.721, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.48 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.48, "projection_minutes": 17.01, "minutes_scale": 0.9101, "appearance_probability": 0.721 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2913, "expected_assists": 0.0207, "assists": 0.045, "assist_rate": 0.045, "expected_goals": 0.0179, "goals": 0.0359, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "shots_on_target": 0.1084, "total_shots": 0.3394, "rating": 6.7294, "minutes": 15.48, "total_pass": 29.2528, "accurate_pass": 26.8072, "duels_won": 3.1922, "total_long_balls": 1.8107, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0641, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1075, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4167, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3905, "crosses_total": 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"name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0196 } ], "others": -0.0205, "total": 0.7757, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.256194 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.048313 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.037002 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.029167 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.024946 } ], "others_margin": -0.026029 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.716825485229492, "model_output": 6.7168, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0411 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0293 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0122 } ], "others": -0.015, "total": 6.7168, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.041133 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.029348 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.016632 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.013369 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012207 } ], "others_margin": -0.014914 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 37, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0076, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2273, "goals": 0.2246, "goal_rate": 0.2246, "shots_on_target": 0.6987, "total_shots": 1.7236, "expected_assists": 0.0664, "key_pass": 0.7816, "rating": 6.7168, "minutes": 82.71, "total_pass": 17.8069, "accurate_pass": 12.9661, "duels_won": 4.4857, "total_long_balls": 0.6387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2977, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2378, "crosses_total": 0.3164, "crosses_accurate": 0.1288, "touches": 30.7516, "possession_lost": 9.0982, "dispossessed": 0.7823, "duels_lost": 5.1626, "aerial_lost": 2.568, "total_contest": 0.9504, "won_contest": 0.5016, "ball_recovery": 2.6229, "challenges_lost": 0.1459, "fouls": 1.3764, "fouls_drawn": 1.7476, "assists": 0.3263, "assist_rate": 0.3263, "interceptions": 0.7176, "tackles_won": 0.3869, "tackles": 0.6673, "clearances": 1.0664, "blocks": 0.1593, "big_chances_created": 0.3314, "big_chances_missed": 0.5293, "xgot": 0.1545, "offsides": 0.9788, "ball_carries": 8.656, "total_progression": 12.429, "progressive_carries": 1.1514, "shots_off_target": 1.0248 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 33000000, "quality_factor": 0.7389, "boost_factor": 1.0076, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0080)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2273, "goals": 0.2228, "goal_rate": 0.2228, "shots_on_target": 0.6931, "total_shots": 1.7227, "expected_assists": 0.0664, "key_pass": 0.7816, "rating": 6.7168, "minutes": 82.71, "total_pass": 17.8069, "accurate_pass": 12.9661, "duels_won": 4.4857, "total_long_balls": 0.6387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2977, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2378, "crosses_total": 0.3139, "crosses_accurate": 0.1288, "touches": 30.7516, "possession_lost": 9.0982, "dispossessed": 0.7823, "duels_lost": 5.1626, "aerial_lost": 2.568, "total_contest": 0.9504, "won_contest": 0.5016, "ball_recovery": 2.6229, "challenges_lost": 0.1459, "fouls": 1.387, "fouls_drawn": 1.7552, "assists": 0.3323, "assist_rate": 0.3323, "interceptions": 0.7248, "tackles_won": 0.3838, "tackles": 0.6673, "clearances": 1.0664, "blocks": 0.1593, "big_chances_created": 0.3314, "big_chances_missed": 0.5293, "xgot": 0.1545, "offsides": 0.971, "ball_carries": 8.656, "total_progression": 12.429, "progressive_carries": 1.1514, "shots_off_target": 1.0248 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.008, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.919, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Bournemouth" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.3764, "after": 1.387 }, { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.9788, "after": 0.971 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.7476, "after": 1.7552 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.7176, "after": 0.7248 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.3263, "after": 0.3323 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6987, "after": 0.6931 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2273, "goals": 0.2228, "goal_rate": 0.2228, "shots_on_target": 0.6931, "total_shots": 1.7227, "expected_assists": 0.0664, "key_pass": 0.7816, "rating": 6.7168, "minutes": 82.71, "total_pass": 17.8069, "accurate_pass": 12.9661, "duels_won": 4.4857, "total_long_balls": 0.6387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2977, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2378, "crosses_total": 0.3139, "crosses_accurate": 0.1288, "touches": 30.7516, "possession_lost": 9.0982, "dispossessed": 0.7823, "duels_lost": 5.1626, "aerial_lost": 2.568, "total_contest": 0.9504, "won_contest": 0.5016, "ball_recovery": 2.6229, "challenges_lost": 0.1459, "fouls": 1.387, "fouls_drawn": 1.7552, "assists": 0.3323, "assist_rate": 0.3323, "interceptions": 0.7248, "tackles_won": 0.3838, "tackles": 0.6673, "clearances": 1.0664, "blocks": 0.1593, "big_chances_created": 0.3314, "big_chances_missed": 0.5293, "xgot": 0.1545, "offsides": 0.971, "ball_carries": 8.656, "total_progression": 12.429, "progressive_carries": 1.1514, "shots_off_target": 1.0248 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2039, "goals": 0.1999, "goal_rate": 0.1999, "shots_on_target": 0.6217, "total_shots": 1.5453, "expected_assists": 0.0664, "key_pass": 0.7816, "rating": 6.7168, "minutes": 82.71, "total_pass": 17.8069, "accurate_pass": 12.9661, "duels_won": 4.4857, "total_long_balls": 0.6387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2977, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2378, "crosses_total": 0.3139, "crosses_accurate": 0.1288, "touches": 30.7516, "possession_lost": 9.0982, "dispossessed": 0.7823, "duels_lost": 5.1626, "aerial_lost": 2.568, "total_contest": 0.9504, "won_contest": 0.5016, "ball_recovery": 2.6229, "challenges_lost": 0.1459, "fouls": 1.387, "fouls_drawn": 1.7552, "assists": 0.3323, "assist_rate": 0.3323, "interceptions": 0.7248, "tackles_won": 0.3838, "tackles": 0.6673, "clearances": 1.0664, "blocks": 0.1593, "big_chances_created": 0.3314, "big_chances_missed": 0.4748, "xgot": 0.1386, "offsides": 0.971, "ball_carries": 8.656, "total_progression": 12.429, "progressive_carries": 1.1514, "shots_off_target": 0.9192, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.897, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Maxence Lacroix, Wesley Fofana", "opponent_faced": "Maxence Lacroix, Wesley Fofana", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Maxence Lacroix, Wesley Fofana", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.897, "skill_edge": -0.0381, "height_edge": -0.032, "attacker_skill": 0.7389, "defender_skill": 0.8235, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Maxence Lacroix", "market_value": 54000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8734 }, { "player": "Wesley Fofana", "market_value": 29000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7736 } ], "xg_override": 0.2039 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.7227, "after": 1.5453 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.0248, "after": 0.9192 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6931, "after": 0.6217 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.5293, "after": 0.4748 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2273, "after": 0.2039 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2228, "after": 0.1999 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1545, "after": 0.1386 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.27 (squad xG sum 1.2843, xG scale 0.9920, xA scale 0.9920, team xA 0.87 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2023, "goal_rate": 0.1999, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6217, "total_shots": 1.5453, "expected_assists": 0.0659, "key_pass": 0.7816, "rating": 6.7168, "minutes": 82.71, "total_pass": 17.8069, "accurate_pass": 12.9661, "duels_won": 4.4857, "total_long_balls": 0.6387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2977, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2378, "crosses_total": 0.3139, "crosses_accurate": 0.1288, "touches": 30.7516, "possession_lost": 9.0982, "dispossessed": 0.7823, "duels_lost": 5.1626, "aerial_lost": 2.568, "total_contest": 0.9504, "won_contest": 0.5016, "ball_recovery": 2.6229, "challenges_lost": 0.1459, "fouls": 1.387, "fouls_drawn": 1.7552, "assist_rate": 0.3323, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7248, "tackles_won": 0.3838, "tackles": 0.6673, "clearances": 1.0664, "blocks": 0.1593, "big_chances_created": 0.3314, "big_chances_missed": 0.4748, "xgot": 0.1375, "offsides": 0.971, "ball_carries": 8.656, "total_progression": 12.429, "progressive_carries": 1.1514, "shots_off_target": 0.9192, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.897, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Maxence Lacroix, Wesley Fofana", "opponent_faced": "Maxence Lacroix, Wesley Fofana", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9842, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.274, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2843, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8783, "team_expected_assists": 0.8712, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6839, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.992, "xa_scale": 0.992, "opponent_lambda": 1.865, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2023, "goal_rate": 0.1999, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6217, "total_shots": 1.5453, "expected_assists": 0.0659, "key_pass": 0.7816, "rating": 6.7168, "minutes": 82.71, "total_pass": 17.8069, "accurate_pass": 12.9661, "duels_won": 4.4857, "total_long_balls": 0.6387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2977, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2378, "crosses_total": 0.3139, "crosses_accurate": 0.1288, "touches": 30.7516, "possession_lost": 9.0982, "dispossessed": 0.7823, "duels_lost": 5.1626, "aerial_lost": 2.568, "total_contest": 0.9504, "won_contest": 0.5016, "ball_recovery": 2.6229, "challenges_lost": 0.1459, "fouls": 1.387, "fouls_drawn": 1.7552, "assist_rate": 0.3323, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7248, "tackles_won": 0.3838, "tackles": 0.6673, "clearances": 1.0664, "blocks": 0.1593, "big_chances_created": 0.3314, "big_chances_missed": 0.4748, "xgot": 0.1375, "offsides": 0.971, "ball_carries": 8.656, "total_progression": 12.429, "progressive_carries": 1.1514, "shots_off_target": 0.9192, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.897, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Maxence Lacroix, Wesley Fofana", "opponent_faced": "Maxence Lacroix, Wesley Fofana", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9842, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1879, "fifa_rank": 876.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2023, "goal_rate": 0.1999, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6217, "total_shots": 1.5453, "expected_assists": 0.0659, "key_pass": 0.7816, "rating": 6.7168, "minutes": 82.71, "total_pass": 17.8069, "accurate_pass": 12.9661, "duels_won": 4.4857, "total_long_balls": 0.6387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2977, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2378, "crosses_total": 0.3139, "crosses_accurate": 0.1288, "touches": 30.7516, "possession_lost": 9.0982, "dispossessed": 0.7823, "duels_lost": 5.1626, "aerial_lost": 2.568, "total_contest": 0.9504, "won_contest": 0.5016, "ball_recovery": 2.6229, "challenges_lost": 0.1459, "fouls": 1.387, "fouls_drawn": 1.7552, "assist_rate": 0.3323, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7248, "tackles_won": 0.3838, "tackles": 0.6673, "clearances": 1.0664, "blocks": 0.1593, "big_chances_created": 0.3314, "big_chances_missed": 0.4748, "xgot": 0.1375, "offsides": 0.971, "ball_carries": 8.656, "total_progression": 12.429, "progressive_carries": 1.1514, "shots_off_target": 0.9192, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.897, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Maxence Lacroix, Wesley Fofana", "opponent_faced": "Maxence Lacroix, Wesley Fofana", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1832, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9842, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1832, "scorer_weight": 0.1991, "squad_weight_total": 1.2704, "weight_share": 0.1567, "finishing_factor": 0.9842, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Marcus Tavernier", "weight": 0.3105, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3105, "runner_up": "Rayan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2508 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2023, "goal_rate": 0.1999, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6217, "total_shots": 1.5453, "expected_assists": 0.0659, "key_pass": 0.7816, "rating": 6.7168, "minutes": 82.71, "total_pass": 17.8069, "accurate_pass": 12.9661, "duels_won": 4.4857, "total_long_balls": 0.6387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2977, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.3231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2378, "crosses_total": 0.3139, "crosses_accurate": 0.1288, "touches": 30.7516, "possession_lost": 9.0982, "dispossessed": 0.7823, "duels_lost": 5.1626, "aerial_lost": 2.568, "total_contest": 0.9504, "won_contest": 0.5016, "ball_recovery": 2.6229, "challenges_lost": 0.1459, "fouls": 1.387, "fouls_drawn": 1.7552, "assist_rate": 0.3323, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.7248, "tackles_won": 0.3838, "tackles": 0.6673, "clearances": 1.0664, "blocks": 0.1593, "big_chances_created": 0.3314, "big_chances_missed": 0.4748, "xgot": 0.1375, "offsides": 0.971, "ball_carries": 8.656, "total_progression": 12.429, "progressive_carries": 1.1514, "shots_off_target": 0.9192, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.897, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Maxence Lacroix, Wesley Fofana", "opponent_faced": "Maxence Lacroix, Wesley Fofana", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1832, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0638, "finishing_factor": 0.9842, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0638, "provider_weight": 0.0824, "squad_weight_total": 0.8267, "weight_share": 0.0996, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrien Truffert", "weight": 0.1033, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1033, "runner_up": "Evanilson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0824, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Marcus Tavernier" ] } ] } } ] }, "Marcus Tavernier": { "player_id": 895576, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 178, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2508, "goal_rate": 0.3249, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1839, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 7.3553, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.297853 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.18807 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.091408 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.071187 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.06486 } ], "others_margin": 0.223563 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.355286121368408, "model_output": 7.3553, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1285 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0701 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0649 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0563 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0463 } ], "others": 0.227, "total": 7.3553, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.128478 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.070101 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.064888 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.056323 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.046326 } ], "others_margin": 0.227009 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0053, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3058, "goals": 0.3922, "goal_rate": 0.3922, "shots_on_target": 1.0621, "total_shots": 2.5133, "expected_assists": 0.1854, "key_pass": 1.7292, "rating": 7.3553, "minutes": 85.21, "total_pass": 33.7832, "accurate_pass": 28.6796, "duels_won": 4.6544, "total_long_balls": 1.5666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8578, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.4149, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.3054, "crosses_total": 4.6854, "crosses_accurate": 1.2632, "touches": 55.7067, "possession_lost": 14.6645, "dispossessed": 1.9296, "duels_lost": 5.8928, "aerial_lost": 1.4888, "total_contest": 2.2529, "won_contest": 1.1608, "ball_recovery": 4.9966, "challenges_lost": 0.7465, "fouls": 0.6417, "fouls_drawn": 1.2225, "assists": 0.0283, "assist_rate": 0.0283, "interceptions": 0.2421, "tackles_won": 0.9746, "tackles": 1.7066, "clearances": 0.9036, "blocks": 0.1549, "big_chances_created": 0.6065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0932, "xgot": 0.4077, "offsides": 0.0365, "ball_carries": 18.7428, "total_progression": 61.0733, "progressive_carries": 2.6615, "shots_off_target": 1.4512 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0053, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0098)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3058, "goals": 0.393, "goal_rate": 0.393, "shots_on_target": 1.0563, "total_shots": 2.5072, "expected_assists": 0.1854, "key_pass": 1.7292, "rating": 7.3553, "minutes": 85.21, "total_pass": 33.7832, "accurate_pass": 28.6796, "duels_won": 4.6544, "total_long_balls": 1.5666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8578, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.4149, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.3054, "crosses_total": 4.6905, "crosses_accurate": 1.2632, "touches": 55.7067, "possession_lost": 14.6645, "dispossessed": 1.9296, "duels_lost": 5.8928, "aerial_lost": 1.4888, "total_contest": 2.2529, "won_contest": 1.1608, "ball_recovery": 4.9966, "challenges_lost": 0.7465, "fouls": 0.64, "fouls_drawn": 1.2291, "assists": 0.028, "assist_rate": 0.028, "interceptions": 0.2397, "tackles_won": 0.979, "tackles": 1.7066, "clearances": 0.9036, "blocks": 0.1549, "big_chances_created": 0.6065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0932, "xgot": 0.4077, "offsides": 0.0361, "ball_carries": 18.7428, "total_progression": 61.0733, "progressive_carries": 2.6615, "shots_off_target": 1.4512 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0098, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9468, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Bournemouth" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.2225, "after": 1.2291 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.5133, "after": 2.5072 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.0621, "after": 1.0563 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 4.6854, "after": 4.6905 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3058, "goals": 0.393, "goal_rate": 0.393, "shots_on_target": 1.0563, "total_shots": 2.5075, "expected_assists": 0.1854, "key_pass": 1.7292, "rating": 7.3553, "minutes": 85.21, "total_pass": 33.7832, "accurate_pass": 28.6796, "duels_won": 4.6544, "total_long_balls": 1.5666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8578, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.4149, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.3054, "crosses_total": 4.6905, "crosses_accurate": 1.2632, "touches": 55.7067, "possession_lost": 14.6645, "dispossessed": 1.9296, "duels_lost": 5.8928, "aerial_lost": 1.4888, "total_contest": 2.2529, "won_contest": 1.1608, "ball_recovery": 4.9966, "challenges_lost": 0.7465, "fouls": 0.64, "fouls_drawn": 1.2291, "assists": 0.028, 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Fofana", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Maxence Lacroix, Wesley Fofana", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.8268, "skill_edge": -0.0738, "height_edge": -0.044, "attacker_skill": 0.6595, "defender_skill": 0.8235, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Maxence Lacroix", "market_value": 54000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8734 }, { "player": "Wesley Fofana", "market_value": 29000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7736 } ], "xg_override": 0.2528 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.5075, "after": 2.0732 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.4512, "after": 1.1999 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.0563, "after": 0.8733 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.4077, "after": 0.3371 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.393, "after": 0.3249 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3058, "after": 0.2528 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.0932, "after": 0.0771 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.27 (squad xG sum 1.2843, xG scale 0.9920, xA scale 0.9920, team xA 0.87 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2508, "goal_rate": 0.3249, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8733, "total_shots": 2.0732, "expected_assists": 0.1839, "key_pass": 1.7292, "rating": 7.3553, "minutes": 85.21, "total_pass": 33.7832, "accurate_pass": 28.6796, "duels_won": 4.6544, "total_long_balls": 1.5666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8578, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.4149, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.3054, "crosses_total": 4.6905, "crosses_accurate": 1.2632, "touches": 55.7067, "possession_lost": 14.6645, "dispossessed": 1.9296, "duels_lost": 5.8928, "aerial_lost": 1.4888, "total_contest": 2.2529, "won_contest": 1.1608, "ball_recovery": 4.9966, "challenges_lost": 0.7465, "fouls": 0.64, "fouls_drawn": 1.2291, "assist_rate": 0.028, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2397, "tackles_won": 0.979, "tackles": 1.7066, "clearances": 0.9036, "blocks": 0.1549, "big_chances_created": 0.6065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0771, "xgot": 0.3344, "offsides": 0.0361, "ball_carries": 18.7428, "total_progression": 61.0733, "progressive_carries": 2.6615, "shots_off_target": 1.1999, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8268, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Maxence Lacroix, Wesley Fofana", "opponent_faced": "Maxence Lacroix, Wesley Fofana", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2381, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.274, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2843, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8783, "team_expected_assists": 0.8712, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6839, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.992, "xa_scale": 0.992, "opponent_lambda": 1.865, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2508, "goal_rate": 0.3249, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8733, "total_shots": 2.0732, "expected_assists": 0.1839, "key_pass": 1.7292, "rating": 7.3553, "minutes": 85.21, "total_pass": 33.7832, "accurate_pass": 28.6796, "duels_won": 4.6544, "total_long_balls": 1.5666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8578, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.4149, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.3054, "crosses_total": 4.6905, "crosses_accurate": 1.2632, "touches": 55.7067, "possession_lost": 14.6645, "dispossessed": 1.9296, "duels_lost": 5.8928, "aerial_lost": 1.4888, "total_contest": 2.2529, "won_contest": 1.1608, "ball_recovery": 4.9966, "challenges_lost": 0.7465, "fouls": 0.64, "fouls_drawn": 1.2291, "assist_rate": 0.028, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2397, "tackles_won": 0.979, "tackles": 1.7066, "clearances": 0.9036, "blocks": 0.1549, "big_chances_created": 0.6065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0771, "xgot": 0.3344, "offsides": 0.0361, "ball_carries": 18.7428, "total_progression": 61.0733, "progressive_carries": 2.6615, "shots_off_target": 1.1999, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8268, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Maxence Lacroix, Wesley Fofana", "opponent_faced": "Maxence Lacroix, Wesley Fofana", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2381, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1048, "fifa_rank": 866.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2508, "goal_rate": 0.3249, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.8733, "total_shots": 2.0732, "expected_assists": 0.1839, "key_pass": 1.7292, "rating": 7.3553, "minutes": 85.21, "total_pass": 33.7832, "accurate_pass": 28.6796, "duels_won": 4.6544, "total_long_balls": 1.5666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8578, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.4149, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.3054, "crosses_total": 4.6905, "crosses_accurate": 1.2632, "touches": 55.7067, "possession_lost": 14.6645, "dispossessed": 1.9296, "duels_lost": 5.8928, "aerial_lost": 1.4888, "total_contest": 2.2529, "won_contest": 1.1608, "ball_recovery": 4.9966, "challenges_lost": 0.7465, "fouls": 0.64, "fouls_drawn": 1.2291, "assist_rate": 0.028, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2397, "tackles_won": 0.979, "tackles": 1.7066, "clearances": 0.9036, "blocks": 0.1549, "big_chances_created": 0.6065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0771, "xgot": 0.3344, "offsides": 0.0361, "ball_carries": 18.7428, "total_progression": 61.0733, "progressive_carries": 2.6615, "shots_off_target": 1.1999, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8268, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Maxence Lacroix, Wesley Fofana", "opponent_faced": "Maxence Lacroix, Wesley Fofana", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2218, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2381, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2218, "scorer_weight": 0.3105, "squad_weight_total": 1.2704, "weight_share": 0.2444, "finishing_factor": 1.2381, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Marcus Tavernier", "weight": 0.3105, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3105, "runner_up": "Rayan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2508 } ] } }, { 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1544 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0698 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0487 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0454 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0332 } ], "others": 0.0566, "total": 1.144, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.154358 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.069836 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.048684 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.045359 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.033244 } ], "others_margin": 0.056613 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.769401550292969, "model_output": 6.7694, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": 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"role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.745, "total_contest": 1.5539, "won_contest": 0.6769, "challenges_lost": 0.6078, "fouls": 0.5084, "fouls_drawn": 1.0974, "blocks": 0.2826, "big_chances_created": 0.1147, "big_chances_missed": 0.3217, "xgot": 0.0752, "ball_carries": 12.7989, "total_progression": 57.4336, "progressive_carries": 1.9189, "shots_off_target": 0.7543 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8600000, "quality_factor": 0.5059, "boost_factor": 1.0, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7921, "expected_assists": 0.0514, "assists": 0.0734, "assist_rate": 0.0734, "expected_goals": 0.118, "goals": 0.0938, "goal_rate": 0.0938, "shots_on_target": 0.3897, "total_shots": 1.144, "rating": 6.7694, "minutes": 69.41, "total_pass": 31.3809, "accurate_pass": 24.469, "duels_won": 3.8716, "total_long_balls": 4.0597, 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"expected_assists": 0.0514, "assists": 0.0734, "assist_rate": 0.0734, "expected_goals": 0.0796, "goals": 0.0633, "goal_rate": 0.0633, "shots_on_target": 0.2629, "total_shots": 0.7718, "rating": 6.7694, "minutes": 69.41, "total_pass": 31.3809, "accurate_pass": 24.469, "duels_won": 3.8716, "total_long_balls": 4.0597, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8735, "total_own_half_passes": 11.2636, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.7159, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1173, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.7531, "crosses_total": 0.7142, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.7307, "possession_lost": 11.4112, "dispossessed": 1.1231, "duels_lost": 4.2596, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 1.2408, "interceptions": 0.7875, "tackles_won": 0.8119, "tackles": 1.1232, "clearances": 0.745, "total_contest": 1.5539, "won_contest": 0.6769, "challenges_lost": 0.6078, "fouls": 0.5084, "fouls_drawn": 1.0974, "blocks": 0.2826, "big_chances_created": 0.1147, "big_chances_missed": 0.217, "xgot": 0.0507, "ball_carries": 12.7989, 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], "others_margin": 0.14426 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9865773320198059, "model_output": 0.9866, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1852 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1093 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0361 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0341 } ], "others": 0.0548, "total": 0.9866, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.242783 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.119704 }, { "name": 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{ "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.059762 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.04233 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.012771 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.010777 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.01048 } ], "others_margin": 0.021377 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Maxence Lacroix, Wesley Fofana", "opponent_faced": "Maxence Lacroix, Wesley Fofana", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Maxence Lacroix, Wesley Fofana", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.195, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9926, "skill_edge": 0.011, "height_edge": -0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.8478, "defender_skill": 0.8235, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Maxence Lacroix", "market_value": 54000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8734 }, { "player": "Wesley Fofana", "market_value": 29000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7736 } ], "xg_override": 0.2611 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.157, "after": 2.141 }, { 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.3251 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1182 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0575 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0515 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0396 } ], "others": -0.0894, "total": 0.5456, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.325062 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118154 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.057473 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.051509 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.039594 } ], "others_margin": 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"name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.019287 } ], "others_margin": 0.056161 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.863039970397949, "model_output": 6.863, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.025 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0225 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0149 } ], "others": -0.0007, "total": 6.863, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.039329 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.025028 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.0231 }, { "name": 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"importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.8125 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5877 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.3901 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.357 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2958 } ], "others": 0.2771, "total": 6.1716, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.211399 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129132 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.077343 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.065885 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.051487 } ], "others_margin": 0.045922 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 3.0412864685058594, "model_output": 3.0413, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.8336 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2719 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2954 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2885 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.2168 } ], "others": -0.2469, "total": 3.0413, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.471993 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.115756 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.112224 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.098637 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.068206 } ], "others_margin": -0.078089 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7744646668434143, "model_output": 0.7745, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0851 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.035 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0311 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0239 } ], "others": 0.0705, "total": 0.7745, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.08515 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057794 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.034969 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.031131 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.023914 } ], "others_margin": 0.070374 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.010298252105713, "model_output": 7.0103, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0375 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0314 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0198 } ], "others": 0.0887, "total": 7.0103, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.037519 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.031374 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.024677 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.023146 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.019769 } ], "others_margin": 0.08868 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0284, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2226, "tackles": 1.3163, "tackles_won": 0.7889, "clearances": 6.3468, "aerial_won": 3.1277, "total_shots": 0.7965, "rating": 7.0103, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 52.5217, "accurate_pass": 45.5176, "duels_won": 5.0871, "total_long_balls": 6.9279, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2371, "total_own_half_passes": 28.4121, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.528, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.1096, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9897, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.2464, "possession_lost": 8.0819, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.2023, "aerial_lost": 2.0036, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.9597, "challenges_lost": 0.5507, "fouls": 0.648, "fouls_drawn": 0.2003, "blocks": 1.0444, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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1.2226, "after": 1.213 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7889, "after": 0.798 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.2003, "after": 0.1916 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2003, "after": 0.1916 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.648, "after": 0.6416 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.213, "tackles": 1.3163, "tackles_won": 0.798, "clearances": 6.3468, "aerial_won": 3.1277, "total_shots": 0.7878, "rating": 7.0103, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 52.5217, "accurate_pass": 45.5176, "duels_won": 5.0871, "total_long_balls": 6.9279, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2371, "total_own_half_passes": 28.4121, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.528, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.1096, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9897, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.2464, "possession_lost": 8.0819, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.2023, "aerial_lost": 2.0036, 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"Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Cole Palmer", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.27 (squad xG sum 1.2843, xG scale 0.9920, xA scale 0.9920, team xA 0.87 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.213, "tackles": 1.3163, "tackles_won": 0.798, "clearances": 6.3468, "aerial_won": 3.1277, "total_shots": 0.7878, "rating": 7.0103, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 52.5217, "accurate_pass": 45.5176, "duels_won": 5.0871, "total_long_balls": 6.9279, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2371, "total_own_half_passes": 28.4121, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.528, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.1096, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9897, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.2464, "possession_lost": 8.0819, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.2023, "aerial_lost": 2.0036, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.9597, "challenges_lost": 0.5507, "fouls": 0.6416, "fouls_drawn": 0.1916, "blocks": 1.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1803, "expected_assists": 0.0642, "shots_on_target": 0.1916, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.037, "ball_carries": 20.9369, "total_progression": 82.9847, "progressive_carries": 1.7096, "key_pass": 0.2357, "shots_off_target": 0.5962, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.552, "opponent_faced": "Cole Palmer", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": 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true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.105074 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.055009 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.054011 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.049976 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.041725 } ], "others_margin": -0.094584 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 6.304228782653809, "model_output": 6.3042, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.594 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.4421 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.4335 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2768 } ], "others": 0.3124, "total": 6.3042, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.207062 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.130948 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.087426 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.078887 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.047293 } ], "others_margin": 0.050821 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 3.588994026184082, "model_output": 3.589, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.9074 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2695 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2857 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.206 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.166 } ], "others": 0.3724, "total": 3.589, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.504761 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.111284 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.105836 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.069912 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.052975 } ], "others_margin": 0.109551 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4765370786190033, "model_output": 0.4765, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1128 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0578 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0276 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.012 } ], "others": 0.0057, "total": 0.4765, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.112827 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057795 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.027582 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.015078 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.011979 } ], "others_margin": 0.005798 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.976743221282959, "model_output": 6.9767, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0553 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0281 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0164 } ], "others": 0.0498, "total": 6.9767, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.055342 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.028104 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.023904 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.018076 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.016432 } ], "others_margin": 0.049753 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0063, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.248, "tackles": 1.5227, "tackles_won": 0.8608, "clearances": 6.3439, "aerial_won": 3.6116, "total_shots": 0.4795, "rating": 6.9767, "minutes": 89.92, "total_pass": 50.6411, "accurate_pass": 39.2838, "duels_won": 6.1706, "total_long_balls": 10.3581, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4133, "total_own_half_passes": 29.3867, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.421, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.2545, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.8628, "crosses_total": 0.2611, "crosses_accurate": 0.1722, "touches": 67.7752, "possession_lost": 14.5818, "dispossessed": 0.0813, "duels_lost": 3.6145, "aerial_lost": 2.041, "total_contest": 0.3114, "won_contest": 0.0287, "ball_recovery": 2.8342, "challenges_lost": 0.3124, "fouls": 0.9054, "fouls_drawn": 0.5108, "blocks": 0.8659, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0237, "assist_rate": 0.0237, "expected_goals": 0.0184, "expected_assists": 0.0897, "shots_on_target": 0.0323, "big_chances_created": 0.2033, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 16.4194, "total_progression": 36.0566, "progressive_carries": 0.2534, "key_pass": 0.9442, "shots_off_target": 0.4472 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0063, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0111)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2508, "tackles": 1.5227, "tackles_won": 0.8623, "clearances": 6.3439, "aerial_won": 3.6116, "total_shots": 0.4742, "rating": 6.9767, "minutes": 89.92, "total_pass": 50.6411, "accurate_pass": 39.2838, "duels_won": 6.1706, "total_long_balls": 10.3581, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4133, "total_own_half_passes": 29.3867, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.421, 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0.0, "assists": 0.0234, "assist_rate": 0.0234, "expected_goals": 0.0184, "expected_assists": 0.0897, "shots_on_target": 0.0319, "big_chances_created": 0.2033, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 16.4194, "total_progression": 36.0566, "progressive_carries": 0.2534, "key_pass": 0.9442, "shots_off_target": 0.4472 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2508, "tackles": 1.5227, "tackles_won": 0.8623, "clearances": 6.3439, "aerial_won": 3.6116, "total_shots": 0.4791, "rating": 6.9767, "minutes": 89.92, "total_pass": 50.6411, "accurate_pass": 39.2838, "duels_won": 6.1706, "total_long_balls": 10.3581, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4133, "total_own_half_passes": 29.3867, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.421, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.2545, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.8628, "crosses_total": 0.2582, "crosses_accurate": 0.1722, "touches": 67.7752, "possession_lost": 14.5818, "dispossessed": 0.0813, "duels_lost": 3.6145, "aerial_lost": 2.041, "total_contest": 0.3114, "won_contest": 0.0287, "ball_recovery": 2.8342, "challenges_lost": 0.3124, "fouls": 0.912, "fouls_drawn": 0.5107, "blocks": 0.8659, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0234, "assist_rate": 0.0234, "expected_goals": 0.0184, "expected_assists": 0.0897, "shots_on_target": 0.0319, "big_chances_created": 0.2033, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 16.4194, "total_progression": 36.0566, "progressive_carries": 0.2534, "key_pass": 0.9442, "shots_off_target": 0.4472, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.67, "opponent_faced": "Pedro Neto", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pedro Neto", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.27 (squad xG sum 1.2843, xG scale 0.9920, xA scale 0.9920, team xA 0.87 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2508, "tackles": 1.5227, "tackles_won": 0.8623, "clearances": 6.3439, "aerial_won": 3.6116, "total_shots": 0.4791, "rating": 6.9767, "minutes": 89.92, "total_pass": 50.6411, "accurate_pass": 39.2838, "duels_won": 6.1706, "total_long_balls": 10.3581, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4133, "total_own_half_passes": 29.3867, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.421, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.2545, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.8628, "crosses_total": 0.2582, "crosses_accurate": 0.1722, "touches": 67.7752, "possession_lost": 14.5818, "dispossessed": 0.0813, "duels_lost": 3.6145, "aerial_lost": 2.041, "total_contest": 0.3114, "won_contest": 0.0287, "ball_recovery": 2.8342, "challenges_lost": 0.3124, "fouls": 0.912, "fouls_drawn": 0.5107, "blocks": 0.8659, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0234, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0183, "expected_assists": 0.089, "shots_on_target": 0.0319, "big_chances_created": 0.2033, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 16.4194, "total_progression": 36.0566, "progressive_carries": 0.2534, "key_pass": 0.9442, "shots_off_target": 0.4472, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.67, "opponent_faced": "Pedro Neto", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.274, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2843, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8783, "team_expected_assists": 0.8712, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6839, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.992, "xa_scale": 0.992, "opponent_lambda": 1.865, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2508, "tackles": 1.5227, "tackles_won": 0.8623, "clearances": 6.3439, "aerial_won": 3.6116, "total_shots": 0.4791, "rating": 6.9767, "minutes": 89.92, "total_pass": 50.6411, "accurate_pass": 39.2838, "duels_won": 6.1706, "total_long_balls": 10.3581, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4133, "total_own_half_passes": 29.3867, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.421, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.2545, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.8628, "crosses_total": 0.2582, "crosses_accurate": 0.1722, "touches": 67.7752, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1603, "fifa_rank": 1109.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2508, "tackles": 1.5227, "tackles_won": 0.8623, "clearances": 6.3439, "aerial_won": 3.6116, "total_shots": 0.4791, "rating": 6.9767, "minutes": 89.92, "total_pass": 50.6411, "accurate_pass": 39.2838, "duels_won": 6.1706, "total_long_balls": 10.3581, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4133, "total_own_half_passes": 29.3867, 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"totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0472 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0444 } ], "others": 0.0271, "total": 0.895, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12124 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.060226 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.055047 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.050428 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.049946 } ], "others_margin": 0.030848 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.5416603088378906, "model_output": 2.5417, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.5895 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.386 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.3379 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.1999 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0395 } ], "others": -0.1289, "total": 2.5417, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.187301 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126527 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.109849 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.071161 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.014671 } ], "others_margin": -0.04951 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.9203646183013916, "model_output": 0.9204, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2768 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1498 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1133 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0901 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.049 } ], "others": -0.0822, "total": 0.9204, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.223503 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127129 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.094631 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.08225 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.04767 } ], "others_margin": -0.085613 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3335374891757965, "model_output": 0.3335, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1136 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0501 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0079 } ], "others": -0.0376, "total": 0.3335, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.113597 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050111 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020543 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.008093 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.007935 } ], "others_margin": -0.037537 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.61438512802124, "model_output": 6.6144, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0389 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0165 } ], "others": -0.0558, "total": 6.6144, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.038881 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.021628 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020385 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.017474 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016512 } ], "others_margin": -0.055868 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9968, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8047, "tackles": 1.4665, "tackles_won": 0.8922, "clearances": 2.5335, "aerial_won": 0.9174, "total_shots": 0.3325, "rating": 6.6144, "minutes": 83.7, "total_pass": 25.9864, "accurate_pass": 20.2221, "duels_won": 3.4578, "total_long_balls": 4.5281, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6158, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9955, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8278, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9909, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3943, "crosses_total": 0.804, "crosses_accurate": 0.2521, "touches": 44.7568, "possession_lost": 9.5758, "dispossessed": 0.0502, "duels_lost": 3.345, "aerial_lost": 0.8306, "total_contest": 0.2891, "won_contest": 0.1758, "ball_recovery": 2.7058, "challenges_lost": 1.1695, "fouls": 1.3826, "fouls_drawn": 1.2597, "blocks": 0.4052, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0725, "assist_rate": 0.0725, "expected_goals": 0.0017, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0086, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6714, "total_progression": 13.6087, "progressive_carries": 0.5211, "key_pass": 0.4888, "shots_off_target": 0.3324 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 310000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9968, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0135)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8127, "tackles": 1.4665, "tackles_won": 0.8864, "clearances": 2.5335, "aerial_won": 0.9174, "total_shots": 0.328, "rating": 6.6144, "minutes": 83.7, "total_pass": 25.9864, "accurate_pass": 20.2221, "duels_won": 3.4578, "total_long_balls": 4.5281, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6158, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9955, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8278, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9909, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3943, "crosses_total": 0.8057, "crosses_accurate": 0.2521, "touches": 44.7568, "possession_lost": 9.5758, "dispossessed": 0.0502, "duels_lost": 3.345, "aerial_lost": 0.8306, "total_contest": 0.2891, "won_contest": 0.1758, "ball_recovery": 2.7058, "challenges_lost": 1.1695, "fouls": 1.3765, "fouls_drawn": 1.2615, "blocks": 0.4052, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0715, "assist_rate": 0.0715, "expected_goals": 0.0017, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0086, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6714, "total_progression": 13.6087, "progressive_carries": 0.5211, "key_pass": 0.4888, "shots_off_target": 0.3324 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0135, "history_matches": 27, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.93, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Bournemouth" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.8047, "after": 0.8127 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.3826, "after": 1.3765 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8922, "after": 0.8864 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8127, "tackles": 1.4665, "tackles_won": 0.8864, "clearances": 2.5335, "aerial_won": 0.9174, "total_shots": 0.3324, "rating": 6.6144, "minutes": 83.7, "total_pass": 25.9864, "accurate_pass": 20.2221, "duels_won": 3.4578, "total_long_balls": 4.5281, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6158, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9955, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8278, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9909, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3943, "crosses_total": 0.8057, "crosses_accurate": 0.2521, "touches": 44.7568, "possession_lost": 9.5758, "dispossessed": 0.0502, "duels_lost": 3.345, "aerial_lost": 0.8306, "total_contest": 0.2891, "won_contest": 0.1758, "ball_recovery": 2.7058, "challenges_lost": 1.1695, "fouls": 1.3765, "fouls_drawn": 1.2615, "blocks": 0.4052, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0715, "assist_rate": 0.0715, "expected_goals": 0.0017, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0086, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6714, "total_progression": 13.6087, "progressive_carries": 0.5211, "key_pass": 0.4888, "shots_off_target": 0.3324 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8127, "tackles": 1.4665, "tackles_won": 0.8864, "clearances": 2.5335, "aerial_won": 0.9174, "total_shots": 0.3324, "rating": 6.6144, "minutes": 83.7, "total_pass": 25.9864, "accurate_pass": 20.2221, "duels_won": 3.4578, "total_long_balls": 4.5281, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6158, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9955, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8278, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9909, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3943, 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so squad sum equals team lambda 1.27 (squad xG sum 1.2843, xG scale 0.9920, xA scale 0.9920, team xA 0.87 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8127, "tackles": 1.4665, "tackles_won": 0.8864, "clearances": 2.5335, "aerial_won": 0.9174, "total_shots": 0.3324, "rating": 6.6144, "minutes": 83.7, "total_pass": 25.9864, "accurate_pass": 20.2221, "duels_won": 3.4578, "total_long_balls": 4.5281, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6158, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9955, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8278, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9909, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3943, "crosses_total": 0.8057, "crosses_accurate": 0.2521, "touches": 44.7568, "possession_lost": 9.5758, "dispossessed": 0.0502, "duels_lost": 3.345, "aerial_lost": 0.8306, "total_contest": 0.2891, "won_contest": 0.1758, "ball_recovery": 2.7058, "challenges_lost": 1.1695, "fouls": 1.3765, "fouls_drawn": 1.2615, "blocks": 0.4052, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0715, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0017, "expected_assists": 0.0191, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0086, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6714, "total_progression": 13.6087, "progressive_carries": 0.5211, "key_pass": 0.4888, "shots_off_target": 0.3324, "opponent_faced": "Danny Welbeck", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9671, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.274, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2843, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8783, "team_expected_assists": 0.8712, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6839, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.992, "xa_scale": 0.992, "opponent_lambda": 1.865, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 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"progressive_carries": 0.5211, "key_pass": 0.4888, "shots_off_target": 0.3324, "opponent_faced": "Danny Welbeck", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9671, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4098, "fifa_rank": 3260.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8127, "tackles": 1.4665, "tackles_won": 0.8864, "clearances": 2.5335, "aerial_won": 0.9174, "total_shots": 0.3324, "rating": 6.6144, "minutes": 83.7, "total_pass": 25.9864, "accurate_pass": 20.2221, "duels_won": 3.4578, "total_long_balls": 4.5281, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6158, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9955, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8278, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9909, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3943, "crosses_total": 0.8057, "crosses_accurate": 0.2521, "touches": 44.7568, "possession_lost": 9.5758, "dispossessed": 0.0502, "duels_lost": 3.345, "aerial_lost": 0.8306, "total_contest": 0.2891, "won_contest": 0.1758, "ball_recovery": 2.7058, "challenges_lost": 1.1695, "fouls": 1.3765, "fouls_drawn": 1.2615, "blocks": 0.4052, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0715, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0017, "expected_assists": 0.0191, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0086, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6714, "total_progression": 13.6087, "progressive_carries": 0.5211, "key_pass": 0.4888, "shots_off_target": 0.3324, 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"totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 18, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45166323111848, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.33871196505084, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0101, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Bournemouth", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (18 historical appearances) to 14.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.34); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2992, "tackles": 0.4615, "tackles_won": 0.2773, "clearances": 1.5331, "aerial_won": 0.6822, "total_shots": 0.138, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 11.97, "total_pass": 1.553, "accurate_pass": 0.6113, "duels_won": 0.3304, "total_long_balls": 0.6608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3304, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9417, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.6113, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.6113, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 2.8251, "possession_lost": 1.2721, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.2809, "total_progression": 1.0616, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.138 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-01-31", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1585, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-19", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1347, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-07", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1145, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-27", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0973, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-20", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0827, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-15", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0703, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-06", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0598, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-02", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0508, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2025-11-29", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0432, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2025-11-22", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0367, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 18.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.203, "aerialWon": 1.2459, "totalClearance_p90": 5.759, "totalTackle": 0.7386, "totalPass": 28.0929 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.29917433857917786, "model_output": 0.2992, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4681 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0503 }, { "name": 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7459 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0321 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0184 } ], "others": -0.0879, "total": 0.4615, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.766053 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.050768 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.044829 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.036442 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.032921 } ], "others_margin": -0.174302 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.27726882696151733, "model_output": 0.2773, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4457 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0137 } ], "others": -0.0586, "total": 0.2773, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.737426 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.059956 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.050475 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.045978 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.040057 } ], "others_margin": -0.191461 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.533149242401123, "model_output": 1.5331, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1543 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1176 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0577 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0479 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0397 } ], "others": 0.0525, "total": 1.5331, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.978663 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.086764 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.039999 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.032008 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.026492 } ], "others_margin": 0.034925 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6821900606155396, "model_output": 0.6822, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7798 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0302 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0289 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0286 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0217 } ], "others": 0.014, "total": 0.6822, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.830709 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.048895 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.044728 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.042367 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.031916 } ], "others_margin": 0.020635 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1379626989364624, "model_output": 0.138, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1829 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0793 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0518, "total": 0.138, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.182858 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.079345 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019188 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.011912 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01181 } ], "others_margin": -0.05188 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.680529594421387, "model_output": 6.6805, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0125 } ], "others": -0.0282, "total": 6.6805, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020237 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.016424 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.014255 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.013009 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.012542 } ], "others_margin": -0.028131 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 18, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0101, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3022, "tackles": 0.4662, "tackles_won": 0.2801, "clearances": 1.5486, "aerial_won": 0.6891, "total_shots": 0.1394, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 11.97, "total_pass": 1.5687, "accurate_pass": 0.6175, "duels_won": 0.3337, "total_long_balls": 0.6675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3337, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9512, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.6175, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.6175, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 2.8536, "possession_lost": 1.2849, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.2837, "total_progression": 1.0723, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1394 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0101, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 18, "history_shrink": 0.2174, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.0 to 14.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.34)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3649, "tackles": 0.5629, "tackles_won": 0.3382, "clearances": 1.8697, "aerial_won": 0.832, "total_shots": 0.1683, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 14.45, "total_pass": 1.8939, "accurate_pass": 0.7455, "duels_won": 0.4029, "total_long_balls": 0.8059, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4029, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1484, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7455, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 3.4452, "possession_lost": 1.5513, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.3425, "total_progression": 1.2946, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1683, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.45, "projection_minutes": 11.97, "minutes_scale": 1.2073, "appearance_probability": 0.339 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3649, "tackles": 0.5629, "tackles_won": 0.3382, "clearances": 1.8697, "aerial_won": 0.832, "total_shots": 0.1683, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 14.45, "total_pass": 1.8939, "accurate_pass": 0.7455, "duels_won": 0.4029, "total_long_balls": 0.8059, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4029, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1484, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7455, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 3.4452, "possession_lost": 1.5513, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.3425, "total_progression": 1.2946, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1683, 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1277 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0823 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0822 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0322 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0196 } ], "others": 0.0586, "total": 7.0869, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.127716 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.082265 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.082175 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.032199 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.019615 } ], "others_margin": 0.05861 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0105, quality 0.834)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8602, "expected_assists": 0.1045, "assists": 0.0739, "assist_rate": 0.0739, "expected_goals": 0.039, "goals": 0.1128, "goal_rate": 0.1128, "shots_on_target": 0.1898, "total_shots": 0.7169, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 29.74, "total_pass": 14.75, "accurate_pass": 10.8847, "duels_won": 2.5209, "total_long_balls": 1.6193, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6177, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2493, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1886, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6961, "crosses_total": 0.8514, "crosses_accurate": 0.2838, "touches": 22.4962, "possession_lost": 5.3343, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.803, "aerial_won": 1.2353, "aerial_lost": 0.6177, "interceptions": 0.6177, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3339, "clearances": 0.6677, "total_contest": 0.9015, "won_contest": 0.3339, "challenges_lost": 0.6177, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6177, "blocks": 0.3339, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8571, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4643, "shots_off_target": 0.5271 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 53000000, "quality_factor": 0.834, "boost_factor": 1.0105, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0092)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8602, "expected_assists": 0.1045, "assists": 0.0732, "assist_rate": 0.0732, "expected_goals": 0.039, "goals": 0.1133, "goal_rate": 0.1133, "shots_on_target": 0.1896, "total_shots": 0.7134, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 29.74, "total_pass": 14.75, "accurate_pass": 10.8847, "duels_won": 2.5209, "total_long_balls": 1.6193, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6177, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2493, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1886, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6961, "crosses_total": 0.8557, "crosses_accurate": 0.2838, "touches": 22.4962, "possession_lost": 5.3343, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.803, "aerial_won": 1.2353, "aerial_lost": 0.6177, "interceptions": 0.6151, "tackles_won": 0.0061, "tackles": 0.3339, "clearances": 0.6677, "total_contest": 0.9015, "won_contest": 0.3339, "challenges_lost": 0.6177, "fouls": 0.003, "fouls_drawn": 0.6181, "blocks": 0.3339, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8571, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4643, "shots_off_target": 0.5271 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0092, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3304, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Bournemouth" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0061 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 29.7 to 23.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.34)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6809, "expected_assists": 0.0827, "assists": 0.0579, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "expected_goals": 0.0309, "goals": 0.0897, "goal_rate": 0.0897, "shots_on_target": 0.1501, "total_shots": 0.5674, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.54, "total_pass": 11.6763, "accurate_pass": 8.6165, "duels_won": 1.9956, "total_long_balls": 1.2819, "accurate_long_balls": 0.489, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5241, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0924, "crosses_total": 0.6774, "crosses_accurate": 0.2247, "touches": 17.8084, "possession_lost": 4.2227, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4273, "aerial_won": 0.9779, "aerial_lost": 0.6177, "interceptions": 0.4869, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.2643, "clearances": 0.5286, "total_contest": 0.7136, "won_contest": 0.2643, "challenges_lost": 0.6177, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4893, "blocks": 0.2643, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4701, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3675, "shots_off_target": 0.4173, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.54 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.54, "projection_minutes": 29.74, "minutes_scale": 0.7916, "appearance_probability": 0.339 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6809, "expected_assists": 0.0827, "assists": 0.0579, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "expected_goals": 0.0309, "goals": 0.0897, "goal_rate": 0.0897, "shots_on_target": 0.1501, "total_shots": 0.5674, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.54, "total_pass": 11.6763, "accurate_pass": 8.6165, "duels_won": 1.9956, "total_long_balls": 1.2819, "accurate_long_balls": 0.489, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5241, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0924, "crosses_total": 0.6774, "crosses_accurate": 0.2247, "touches": 17.8084, "possession_lost": 4.2227, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4273, "aerial_won": 0.9779, "aerial_lost": 0.6177, "interceptions": 0.4869, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.2643, "clearances": 0.5286, "total_contest": 0.7136, "won_contest": 0.2643, "challenges_lost": 0.6177, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4893, "blocks": 0.2643, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4701, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3675, "shots_off_target": 0.4173, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.54 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.27 (squad xG sum 1.2843, xG scale 0.9920, xA scale 0.9920, team xA 0.87 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6809, "expected_assists": 0.082, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0897, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1501, "total_shots": 0.5674, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.54, "total_pass": 11.6763, "accurate_pass": 8.6165, "duels_won": 1.9956, "total_long_balls": 1.2819, "accurate_long_balls": 0.489, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5241, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0924, "crosses_total": 0.6774, "crosses_accurate": 0.2247, "touches": 17.8084, "possession_lost": 4.2227, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4273, "aerial_won": 0.9779, "aerial_lost": 0.6177, "interceptions": 0.4869, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.2643, "clearances": 0.5286, "total_contest": 0.7136, "won_contest": 0.2643, "challenges_lost": 0.6177, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4893, "blocks": 0.2643, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4701, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3675, "shots_off_target": 0.4173, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.54, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.238, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8131 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.274, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2843, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8783, "team_expected_assists": 0.8712, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6839, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.992, "xa_scale": 0.992, "opponent_lambda": 1.865, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.339 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6809, "expected_assists": 0.082, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0897, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1501, "total_shots": 0.5674, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.54, "total_pass": 11.6763, "accurate_pass": 8.6165, "duels_won": 1.9956, "total_long_balls": 1.2819, "accurate_long_balls": 0.489, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5241, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0924, "crosses_total": 0.6774, "crosses_accurate": 0.2247, "touches": 17.8084, "possession_lost": 4.2227, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4273, "aerial_won": 0.9779, "aerial_lost": 0.6177, "interceptions": 0.4869, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.2643, "clearances": 0.5286, "total_contest": 0.7136, "won_contest": 0.2643, "challenges_lost": 0.6177, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4893, "blocks": 0.2643, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4701, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3675, "shots_off_target": 0.4173, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.54, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.238, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8131, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 491, "fifa_rank": 525.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6809, "expected_assists": 0.082, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0897, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1501, "total_shots": 0.5674, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.54, "total_pass": 11.6763, "accurate_pass": 8.6165, "duels_won": 1.9956, "total_long_balls": 1.2819, "accurate_long_balls": 0.489, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5241, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0924, "crosses_total": 0.6774, "crosses_accurate": 0.2247, "touches": 17.8084, "possession_lost": 4.2227, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4273, "aerial_won": 0.9779, "aerial_lost": 0.6177, "interceptions": 0.4869, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.2643, "clearances": 0.5286, "total_contest": 0.7136, "won_contest": 0.2643, "challenges_lost": 0.6177, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4893, "blocks": 0.2643, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4701, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3675, "shots_off_target": 0.4173, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.54, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.238, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0102, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8131, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0102, "scorer_weight": 0.013, "squad_weight_total": 1.2704, "weight_share": 0.0102, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.339, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Marcus Tavernier", "weight": 0.3105, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3105, "runner_up": "Rayan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2508 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6809, "expected_assists": 0.082, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0897, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1501, "total_shots": 0.5674, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.54, "total_pass": 11.6763, "accurate_pass": 8.6165, "duels_won": 1.9956, "total_long_balls": 1.2819, "accurate_long_balls": 0.489, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5241, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0924, "crosses_total": 0.6774, "crosses_accurate": 0.2247, "touches": 17.8084, "possession_lost": 4.2227, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4273, "aerial_won": 0.9779, "aerial_lost": 0.6177, "interceptions": 0.4869, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.2643, "clearances": 0.5286, "total_contest": 0.7136, "won_contest": 0.2643, "challenges_lost": 0.6177, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4893, "blocks": 0.2643, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4701, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3675, "shots_off_target": 0.4173, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.54, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.238, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0102, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0267, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8131, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0267, "provider_weight": 0.0226, "squad_weight_total": 0.8267, "weight_share": 0.0273, "creation_factor": 0.8131, "appearance_weight": 0.339, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrien Truffert", "weight": 0.1033, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1033, "runner_up": "Evanilson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0824, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Marcus Tavernier" ] } ] } } ] }, "Justin Kluivert": { "player_id": 851596, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 171, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0623, "assist_rate": 0.0827, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0702, "goal_rate": 0.0875, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6816, "minutes": 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"totalShots", "predicted": 0.7775500416755676, "model_output": 0.7776, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6122 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.31 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0539 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0349 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0337 } ], "others": 0.0342, "total": 0.7776, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.612189 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.310009 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.053901 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", 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share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6477, "expected_assists": 0.0623, "assist_rate": 0.0827, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0702, "goal_rate": 0.0875, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2387, "total_shots": 0.805, "rating": 6.6816, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 10.7053, "accurate_pass": 9.0006, "duels_won": 0.7397, "total_long_balls": 1.103, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8774, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0222, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0222, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6831, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9784, "crosses_total": 1.0166, "crosses_accurate": 0.0618, "touches": 16.131, "possession_lost": 4.0093, "dispossessed": 0.071, "duels_lost": 3.0263, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.7616, "interceptions": 0.0019, "tackles_won": 0.171, "tackles": 0.171, "clearances": 0.0618, "total_contest": 0.9221, "won_contest": 0.3431, "challenges_lost": 0.619, "fouls": 1.0911, "fouls_drawn": 0.2265, "blocks": 0.1638, "big_chances_created": 0.1498, "big_chances_missed": 0.1645, "xgot": 0.0245, "ball_carries": 5.4815, "total_progression": 28.3088, "progressive_carries": 1.3866, "shots_off_target": 0.5663, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.326, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.238, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.326, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6477, "expected_assists": 0.0623, "assist_rate": 0.0827, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0702, "goal_rate": 0.0875, "goals": 0, 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"bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.238, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1953, "fifa_rank": 865.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } } ] }, "Eli Junior Kroupi": { "player_id": 1426228, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 179, "market_value": 72000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1958, "goal_rate": 0.1879, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0929, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6494, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.4011, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, 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"opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0541, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024023, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0007, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025044, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 8.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1933, "expected_assists": 0.2451, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 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0.663, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023997, "match_date": "2026-03-20", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 7.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8053, "expected_assists": 0.0301, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0145, quality 0.873)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1319, "goals": 0.1255, "goal_rate": 0.1255, "shots_on_target": 0.4018, "total_shots": 1.1348, "expected_assists": 0.0626, "key_pass": 0.7027, "rating": 6.6494, "minutes": 18.05, "total_pass": 7.6258, "accurate_pass": 5.2755, "duels_won": 0.5703, "total_long_balls": 0.2208, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3944, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6362, "crosses_total": 0.2282, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3459, "possession_lost": 4.0062, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 1.5076, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.4581, "won_contest": 0.1494, "ball_recovery": 1.6775, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 0.7726, "fouls_drawn": 0.1774, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2434, "tackles_won": 0.1508, 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"match_date": "2026-03-03", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1332, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1554, "combined_rank_score": 636.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 569.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8094, "sofascore_appearances": 33.0, "fifa_rank": 703.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0853 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0537 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0338 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0325 } ], "others": 0.081, "total": 0.6927, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.352102 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.16558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.091694 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.056747 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.054609 } ], "others_margin": 0.124356 } }, { 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0.031445 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.025995 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": -0.019812 } ], "others_margin": -0.05961 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03939078375697136, "model_output": 0.0394, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0035 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0024 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0025 } ], "others": -0.0124, "total": 0.0394, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0045, quality 0.612)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0561, "goals": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.0611, "shots_on_target": 0.2353, "total_shots": 0.6901, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "key_pass": 0.3673, "rating": 6.643, "minutes": 16.26, "total_pass": 6.6231, "accurate_pass": 5.2323, "duels_won": 1.5477, "total_long_balls": 0.1944, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0083, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2068, "crosses_total": 0.2046, "crosses_accurate": 0.0588, "touches": 10.5191, "possession_lost": 2.4047, "dispossessed": 0.0425, "duels_lost": 1.5014, "aerial_lost": 0.469, "total_contest": 0.28, "won_contest": 0.0121, "ball_recovery": 0.87, "challenges_lost": 0.0774, "fouls": 0.6871, "fouls_drawn": 0.2513, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1877, "tackles_won": 0.2556, 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"goals": 0.0917, "goal_rate": 0.0917, "shots_on_target": 0.3529, "total_shots": 1.0352, "expected_assists": 0.0594, "key_pass": 0.551, "rating": 6.643, "minutes": 25.98, "total_pass": 9.9346, "accurate_pass": 7.8485, "duels_won": 2.3216, "total_long_balls": 0.2916, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0124, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8102, "crosses_total": 0.3069, "crosses_accurate": 0.0882, "touches": 15.7786, "possession_lost": 3.6071, "dispossessed": 0.0425, "duels_lost": 2.2521, "aerial_lost": 0.469, "total_contest": 0.42, "won_contest": 0.0181, "ball_recovery": 1.305, "challenges_lost": 0.0774, "fouls": 1.0307, "fouls_drawn": 0.377, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2816, "tackles_won": 0.3834, "tackles": 0.6903, "clearances": 0.1569, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0567, "big_chances_missed": 0.2428, "xgot": 0.0215, "offsides": 0.1596, "ball_carries": 3.3377, "total_progression": 16.2279, "progressive_carries": 0.5633, "shots_off_target": 0.6821, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.59, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.98 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.27 (squad xG sum 1.2843, xG scale 0.9920, xA scale 0.9920, team xA 0.87 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.0917, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3529, "total_shots": 1.0352, "expected_assists": 0.0589, "key_pass": 0.551, "rating": 6.643, "minutes": 25.98, "total_pass": 9.9346, "accurate_pass": 7.8485, "duels_won": 2.3216, "total_long_balls": 0.2916, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0124, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8102, "crosses_total": 0.3069, "crosses_accurate": 0.0882, "touches": 15.7786, "possession_lost": 3.6071, "dispossessed": 0.0425, "duels_lost": 2.2521, "aerial_lost": 0.469, "total_contest": 0.42, "won_contest": 0.0181, "ball_recovery": 1.305, "challenges_lost": 0.0774, "fouls": 1.0307, "fouls_drawn": 0.377, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2816, "tackles_won": 0.3834, "tackles": 0.6903, "clearances": 0.1569, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0567, "big_chances_missed": 0.2428, "xgot": 0.0213, "offsides": 0.1596, "ball_carries": 3.3377, "total_progression": 16.2279, "progressive_carries": 0.5633, "shots_off_target": 0.6821, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.59, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.98, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.238, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0559, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.274, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2843, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8783, "team_expected_assists": 0.8712, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6839, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.992, "xa_scale": 0.992, "opponent_lambda": 1.865, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.59 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.0917, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3529, "total_shots": 1.0352, "expected_assists": 0.0589, "key_pass": 0.551, "rating": 6.643, "minutes": 25.98, "total_pass": 9.9346, "accurate_pass": 7.8485, "duels_won": 2.3216, "total_long_balls": 0.2916, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0124, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8102, "crosses_total": 0.3069, "crosses_accurate": 0.0882, "touches": 15.7786, "possession_lost": 3.6071, "dispossessed": 0.0425, "duels_lost": 2.2521, "aerial_lost": 0.469, "total_contest": 0.42, "won_contest": 0.0181, "ball_recovery": 1.305, "challenges_lost": 0.0774, "fouls": 1.0307, "fouls_drawn": 0.377, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2816, "tackles_won": 0.3834, "tackles": 0.6903, "clearances": 0.1569, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0567, "big_chances_missed": 0.2428, "xgot": 0.0213, "offsides": 0.1596, "ball_carries": 3.3377, "total_progression": 16.2279, "progressive_carries": 0.5633, "shots_off_target": 0.6821, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.59, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.98, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.238, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0559, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3068, "fifa_rank": 1431.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.0917, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3529, "total_shots": 1.0352, "expected_assists": 0.0589, "key_pass": 0.551, "rating": 6.643, "minutes": 25.98, "total_pass": 9.9346, "accurate_pass": 7.8485, "duels_won": 2.3216, "total_long_balls": 0.2916, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0124, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6995, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8102, "crosses_total": 0.3069, "crosses_accurate": 0.0882, "touches": 15.7786, "possession_lost": 3.6071, "dispossessed": 0.0425, "duels_lost": 2.2521, "aerial_lost": 0.469, "total_contest": 0.42, "won_contest": 0.0181, "ball_recovery": 1.305, "challenges_lost": 0.0774, "fouls": 1.0307, "fouls_drawn": 0.377, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2816, "tackles_won": 0.3834, "tackles": 0.6903, "clearances": 0.1569, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0567, "big_chances_missed": 0.2428, "xgot": 0.0213, "offsides": 0.1596, "ball_carries": 3.3377, "total_progression": 16.2279, "progressive_carries": 0.5633, "shots_off_target": 0.6821, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.59, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.98, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.238, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0473, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0559, 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-0.637119 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.185968 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.137631 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.098404 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.084656 } ], "others_margin": -0.222264 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.11163255572319031, "model_output": 0.1116, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0254 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0097 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0082 } ], "others": 0.0129, "total": 0.1116, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.300828 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.242801 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.13026 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.113063 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.086217 } ], "others_margin": 0.122879 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1878669261932373, "model_output": 0.1879, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1436 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0457 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0149, "total": 0.1879, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.585507 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.225708 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.091831 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.082299 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.065437 } ], "others_margin": -0.07649 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7094317674636841, "model_output": 0.7094, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4177 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2023 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.1005 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0727 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0401 } ], "others": -0.0534, "total": 0.7094, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.417685 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.202307 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.100508 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.072677 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.040122 } ], "others_margin": -0.053365 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.086920261383057, "model_output": 7.0869, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1277 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0823 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0822 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0322 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0196 } ], "others": 0.0586, "total": 7.0869, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.127716 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.082265 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.082175 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.032199 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.019615 } ], "others_margin": 0.05861 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0105, quality 0.834)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8602, "expected_assists": 0.1045, "assists": 0.0739, "assist_rate": 0.0739, "expected_goals": 0.039, "goals": 0.1128, "goal_rate": 0.1128, "shots_on_target": 0.1898, "total_shots": 0.7169, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 29.74, "total_pass": 14.75, "accurate_pass": 10.8847, "duels_won": 2.5209, "total_long_balls": 1.6193, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6177, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2493, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1886, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6961, "crosses_total": 0.8514, "crosses_accurate": 0.2838, "touches": 22.4962, "possession_lost": 5.3343, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.803, "aerial_won": 1.2353, "aerial_lost": 0.6177, "interceptions": 0.6177, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3339, "clearances": 0.6677, "total_contest": 0.9015, "won_contest": 0.3339, "challenges_lost": 0.6177, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6177, "blocks": 0.3339, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8571, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4643, "shots_off_target": 0.5271 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 53000000, "quality_factor": 0.834, "boost_factor": 1.0105, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0092)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8602, "expected_assists": 0.1045, "assists": 0.0732, "assist_rate": 0.0732, "expected_goals": 0.039, "goals": 0.1133, "goal_rate": 0.1133, "shots_on_target": 0.1896, "total_shots": 0.7134, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 29.74, "total_pass": 14.75, "accurate_pass": 10.8847, "duels_won": 2.5209, "total_long_balls": 1.6193, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6177, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2493, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1886, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6961, "crosses_total": 0.8557, "crosses_accurate": 0.2838, "touches": 22.4962, "possession_lost": 5.3343, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.803, "aerial_won": 1.2353, "aerial_lost": 0.6177, "interceptions": 0.6151, "tackles_won": 0.0061, "tackles": 0.3339, "clearances": 0.6677, "total_contest": 0.9015, "won_contest": 0.3339, "challenges_lost": 0.6177, "fouls": 0.003, "fouls_drawn": 0.6181, "blocks": 0.3339, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8571, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4643, "shots_off_target": 0.5271 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0092, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3304, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Bournemouth" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0061 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 29.7 to 23.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.34)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6809, "expected_assists": 0.0827, "assists": 0.0579, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "expected_goals": 0.0309, "goals": 0.0897, "goal_rate": 0.0897, "shots_on_target": 0.1501, "total_shots": 0.5674, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.54, "total_pass": 11.6763, "accurate_pass": 8.6165, "duels_won": 1.9956, "total_long_balls": 1.2819, "accurate_long_balls": 0.489, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5241, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0924, "crosses_total": 0.6774, "crosses_accurate": 0.2247, "touches": 17.8084, "possession_lost": 4.2227, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4273, "aerial_won": 0.9779, "aerial_lost": 0.6177, "interceptions": 0.4869, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.2643, "clearances": 0.5286, "total_contest": 0.7136, "won_contest": 0.2643, "challenges_lost": 0.6177, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4893, "blocks": 0.2643, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4701, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3675, "shots_off_target": 0.4173, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.54 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.54, "projection_minutes": 29.74, "minutes_scale": 0.7916, "appearance_probability": 0.339 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6809, "expected_assists": 0.0827, "assists": 0.0579, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "expected_goals": 0.0309, "goals": 0.0897, "goal_rate": 0.0897, "shots_on_target": 0.1501, "total_shots": 0.5674, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.54, "total_pass": 11.6763, "accurate_pass": 8.6165, "duels_won": 1.9956, "total_long_balls": 1.2819, "accurate_long_balls": 0.489, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5241, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0924, "crosses_total": 0.6774, "crosses_accurate": 0.2247, "touches": 17.8084, "possession_lost": 4.2227, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4273, "aerial_won": 0.9779, "aerial_lost": 0.6177, "interceptions": 0.4869, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.2643, "clearances": 0.5286, "total_contest": 0.7136, "won_contest": 0.2643, "challenges_lost": 0.6177, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4893, "blocks": 0.2643, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4701, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3675, "shots_off_target": 0.4173, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.54 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.27 (squad xG sum 1.2843, xG scale 0.9920, xA scale 0.9920, team xA 0.87 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6809, "expected_assists": 0.082, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0897, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1501, "total_shots": 0.5674, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.54, "total_pass": 11.6763, "accurate_pass": 8.6165, "duels_won": 1.9956, "total_long_balls": 1.2819, "accurate_long_balls": 0.489, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5241, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0924, "crosses_total": 0.6774, "crosses_accurate": 0.2247, "touches": 17.8084, "possession_lost": 4.2227, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4273, "aerial_won": 0.9779, "aerial_lost": 0.6177, "interceptions": 0.4869, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.2643, "clearances": 0.5286, "total_contest": 0.7136, "won_contest": 0.2643, "challenges_lost": 0.6177, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4893, "blocks": 0.2643, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4701, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3675, "shots_off_target": 0.4173, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.54, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.238, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8131 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.274, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2843, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8783, "team_expected_assists": 0.8712, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6839, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.992, "xa_scale": 0.992, "opponent_lambda": 1.865, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.339 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6809, "expected_assists": 0.082, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0897, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1501, "total_shots": 0.5674, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.54, "total_pass": 11.6763, "accurate_pass": 8.6165, "duels_won": 1.9956, "total_long_balls": 1.2819, "accurate_long_balls": 0.489, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5241, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0924, "crosses_total": 0.6774, "crosses_accurate": 0.2247, "touches": 17.8084, "possession_lost": 4.2227, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4273, "aerial_won": 0.9779, "aerial_lost": 0.6177, "interceptions": 0.4869, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.2643, "clearances": 0.5286, "total_contest": 0.7136, "won_contest": 0.2643, "challenges_lost": 0.6177, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4893, "blocks": 0.2643, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4701, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3675, "shots_off_target": 0.4173, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.54, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.238, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8131, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 491, "fifa_rank": 525.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6809, "expected_assists": 0.082, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0897, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1501, "total_shots": 0.5674, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.54, "total_pass": 11.6763, "accurate_pass": 8.6165, "duels_won": 1.9956, "total_long_balls": 1.2819, "accurate_long_balls": 0.489, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5241, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0924, "crosses_total": 0.6774, "crosses_accurate": 0.2247, "touches": 17.8084, "possession_lost": 4.2227, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4273, "aerial_won": 0.9779, "aerial_lost": 0.6177, "interceptions": 0.4869, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.2643, "clearances": 0.5286, "total_contest": 0.7136, "won_contest": 0.2643, "challenges_lost": 0.6177, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4893, "blocks": 0.2643, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4701, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3675, "shots_off_target": 0.4173, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.54, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.238, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0102, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8131, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0102, "scorer_weight": 0.013, "squad_weight_total": 1.2704, "weight_share": 0.0102, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.339, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Marcus Tavernier", "weight": 0.3105, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3105, "runner_up": "Rayan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2508 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6809, "expected_assists": 0.082, "assist_rate": 0.0579, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0897, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1501, "total_shots": 0.5674, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.54, "total_pass": 11.6763, "accurate_pass": 8.6165, "duels_won": 1.9956, "total_long_balls": 1.2819, "accurate_long_balls": 0.489, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3638, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5241, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0924, "crosses_total": 0.6774, "crosses_accurate": 0.2247, "touches": 17.8084, "possession_lost": 4.2227, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4273, "aerial_won": 0.9779, "aerial_lost": 0.6177, "interceptions": 0.4869, "tackles_won": 0.0048, "tackles": 0.2643, "clearances": 0.5286, "total_contest": 0.7136, "won_contest": 0.2643, "challenges_lost": 0.6177, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4893, "blocks": 0.2643, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4701, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3675, "shots_off_target": 0.4173, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.54, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.238, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0102, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0267, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8131, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0267, "provider_weight": 0.0226, "squad_weight_total": 0.8267, "weight_share": 0.0273, "creation_factor": 0.8131, "appearance_weight": 0.339, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrien Truffert", "weight": 0.1033, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1033, "runner_up": "Evanilson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0824, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Marcus Tavernier" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.27, "expected_assists": 0.87, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 422, "interceptions": 11, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.89, "possession_estimated_pct": 46.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Pedro Neto", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Lewis Cook", "James Hill" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.605, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.33, "xg_contribution": 0.1348, "xg_multiplier": 1.088, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewis Cook", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 11600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.67 }, { "player": "James Hill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.67 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedro Neto (SS) is slightly favored against Lewis Cook and James Hill in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €18M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.09 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.135 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Danny Welbeck", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Lewis Cook", "James Hill" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.605, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.198, "xg_contribution": 0.2162, "xg_multiplier": 0.8938, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewis Cook", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 11600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.802 }, { "player": "James Hill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.802 } ], "duel_analysis": "Danny Welbeck (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Lewis Cook and James Hill in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.89 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.216 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Cole Palmer", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 92000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.89, "defenders": [ "António Silva" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.448, "xg_contribution": 0.2538, "xg_multiplier": 1.0713, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "António Silva", "role": "RB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.552 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cole Palmer (LWB) is slightly favored against António Silva in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. The quality gap is significant (€92M vs €27M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.254 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Moisés Caicedo", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 104000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.895, "defenders": [ "Lewis Cook" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.541, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.612, "xg_contribution": 0.0412, "xg_multiplier": 1.2377, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewis Cook", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 11600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.388 } ], "duel_analysis": "Moisés Caicedo (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Lewis Cook in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 61%. The quality gap is significant (€104M vs €12M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.24 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.041 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Morgan Rogers", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 105000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.895, "defenders": [ "Lewis Cook" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.541, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.648, "xg_contribution": 0.322, "xg_multiplier": 1.2907, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewis Cook", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 11600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.352 } ], "duel_analysis": "Morgan Rogers (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Lewis Cook in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 65%. The quality gap is significant (€105M vs €12M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.29 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.322 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ryan Christie", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 8600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.506, "defenders": [ "Maxence Lacroix" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.199, "xg_contribution": 0.0796, "xg_multiplier": 0.6746, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Maxence Lacroix", "role": "CB", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.801 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ryan Christie (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Maxence Lacroix in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 20%. The quality gap is significant (€9M vs €54M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.67 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.080 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Rayan", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Maxence Lacroix", "Wesley Fofana" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.774, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.195, "xg_contribution": 0.261, "xg_multiplier": 0.9926, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Maxence Lacroix", "role": "CB", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.805 }, { "player": "Wesley Fofana", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.805 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rayan (ST) is evenly matched against Maxence Lacroix and Wesley Fofana in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €42M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.261 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Evanilson", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 33000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.739, "defenders": [ "Maxence Lacroix", "Wesley Fofana" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.774, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2039, "xg_multiplier": 0.897, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Maxence Lacroix", "role": "CB", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Wesley Fofana", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Evanilson (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Maxence Lacroix and Wesley Fofana in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.204 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Marcus Tavernier", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Maxence Lacroix", "Wesley Fofana" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.774, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2528, "xg_multiplier": 0.8268, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Maxence Lacroix", "role": "CB", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Wesley Fofana", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marcus Tavernier (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Maxence Lacroix and Wesley Fofana in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €42M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.83 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.253 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.893, "away_midfield_power": 0.578, "home_creative_power": 0.938, "away_creative_power": 0.491, "home_defensive_power": 0.76, "away_defensive_power": 0.491, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.607, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Moisés Caicedo", "Cole Palmer", "Morgan Rogers" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Ryan Christie", "Lewis Cook", "Tyler Adams" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 53.2, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 46.8, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8, "home_key_passes_projected": 7.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.4, "home_throughball_threat": 3.4, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Morgan Rogers vs Tyler Adams", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.045, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.961 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.865, "away_lambda": 1.274, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Pedro Neto": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Cook", "James Hill" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Danny Welbeck": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Cook", "James Hill" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Cole Palmer": { "opponents": [ "António Silva", "Ryan Christie" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Moisés Caicedo": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Cook" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Morgan Rogers": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Cook", "Tyler Adams" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Maxence Lacroix": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Christie", "Rayan", "Evanilson", "Marcus Tavernier" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Wesley Fofana": { "opponents": [ "Rayan", "Evanilson", "Marcus Tavernier" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Emiliano Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Rayan", "Evanilson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Levi Colwill": { "opponents": [ "Marcus Tavernier" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Pep Chavarría": { "opponents": [ "Rayan" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Reece James": { "opponents": [ "Evanilson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Lewis Cook": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Neto", "Danny Welbeck", "Moisés Caicedo", "Morgan Rogers" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "James Hill": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Neto", "Danny Welbeck" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "António Silva": { "opponents": [ "Cole Palmer" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ryan Christie": { "opponents": [ "Maxence Lacroix", "Cole Palmer" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rayan": { "opponents": [ "Maxence Lacroix", "Wesley Fofana" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Evanilson": { "opponents": [ "Maxence Lacroix", "Wesley Fofana" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Marcus Tavernier": { "opponents": [ "Maxence Lacroix", "Wesley Fofana" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Tyler Adams": { "opponents": [ "Morgan Rogers" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Đorđe Petrović": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Neto", "Danny Welbeck" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Adrien Truffert": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Neto" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Adam Smith": { "opponents": [ "Danny Welbeck" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Morgan Rogers vs Tyler Adams). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.97, Away: 0.80. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9686, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1507, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0395, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9301, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.889, "home_midfield_factor": 1.045, "away_midfield_factor": 0.961, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7731, "away_avg_quality": 0.6481, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1249, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.8483, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.8644, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.7822, "elite_count_gap": 6, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3012, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1657, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0964, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.968, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0885 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.045, "result": 1.1375 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 1.0806 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.2427 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0701, "result": 1.3298 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8989, "result": 1.1954 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9301, "result": 1.1118 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1507, "result": 1.2625 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.2625, "result": 1.2625, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3012, "factor": 1.1657, "pre": 1.2625, "result": 1.4717 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.4717 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1709, "result": 1.6429 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 2.4138, "result": 1.7909 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.7909, "result": 1.791, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.791 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.791, "result": 1.791, "available": false }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.0803, "pre": 1.791, "result": 1.935 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.935 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9641, "input_total": 3.139, "result": 1.8655 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.8655, "result": 1.865, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.865 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7973, "n_duels": 4, "duel_confidence": 0.67, "result": 1.0127 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.961, "result": 0.9732 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 1.0219 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0219 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0566, "result": 1.0797 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9686, "result": 1.0458 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.889, "result": 0.9297 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0395, "result": 0.9693 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9693, "result": 0.9693, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3012, "factor": 0.9036, "pre": 0.9693, "result": 0.8758 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8758 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.2187, "result": 1.0947 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 2.4138, "result": 1.348 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.348, "result": 1.348, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.348 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.348, "result": 1.348, "available": false }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9799, "pre": 1.348, "result": 1.321 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.321 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9641, "input_total": 3.139, "result": 1.2735 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.2735, "result": 1.274, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.274 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1709, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.2187, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Chelsea", "away_squad": "Bournemouth", "home_goals_per90": 3.5, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.414, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.414, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.3012, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0803, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9799, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.791, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.348, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.935, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.321, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.7909, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.348, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.865, "final_away_lambda": 1.274 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 10, "opponent_position": 17, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0701, "attack_index": 1.193, "defense_concede_index": 0.982, "form_multiplier": 1.021, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.68, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.38, "team_ppg": 1.37, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 17, "opponent_position": 10, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0566, "attack_index": 0.903, "defense_concede_index": 1.282, "form_multiplier": 0.979, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.27, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.81, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.37 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Chelsea vs Bournemouth. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-4-2-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.791, Away 1.348). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.865, Away 1.274 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Chelsea", "away_squad": "Bournemouth", "home_goals_per90": 3.5, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.414, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.414, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.865, "away_lambda": 1.274, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.791, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.348 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-10T13:31:11Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }