{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Brentford", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261010", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-2", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0862, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Brentford", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2485, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0862 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1159 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0815 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0802 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0758 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.055, "0-1": 0.0802, "0-2": 0.0608, "0-3": 0.0304, "0-4": 0.0114, "0-5": 0.0034, "0-6": 0.0009, "1-0": 0.0758, "1-1": 0.1159, "1-2": 0.0862, "1-3": 0.0431, "1-4": 0.0161, "1-5": 0.0048, "1-6": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0544, "2-1": 0.0815, "2-2": 0.0611, "2-3": 0.0305, "2-4": 0.0114, "2-5": 0.0034, "2-6": 0.0009, "3-0": 0.0257, "3-1": 0.0385, "3-2": 0.0289, "3-3": 0.0144, "3-4": 0.0054, "3-5": 0.0016, "4-0": 0.0091, "4-1": 0.0137, "4-2": 0.0102, "4-3": 0.0051, "4-4": 0.0019, "4-5": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.0026, "5-1": 0.0039, "5-2": 0.0029, "5-3": 0.0015, "5-4": 0.0005, "6-0": 0.0006, "6-1": 0.0009, "6-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3577, "draw": 0.2485, "away_win": 0.3938 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.558, "under_2_5_goals": 0.442, "btts_yes": 0.5894, "btts_no": 0.4106, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2234, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2422 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.72, "MCR": 6.8, "ATR": 6.81, "GK": 7.01 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.76, "MCR": 6.91, "ATR": 6.83, "GK": 6.99 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Aston Villa vs Brentford. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Nicolas Jackson, Igor Thiago, Kevin Schade", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Johan Manzambi vs Mamadou Sangare will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.87, Away: 1.20. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.69, "home_lambda": 1.418, "away_lambda": 1.499, "h2h": { "available": false, "meetings": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_wins": 0, "draws": 0, "home_multiplier": 1.0, "away_multiplier": 1.0 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1159, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3577, "draw": 0.2485, "away_win": 0.3938 }, "favorite": "Brentford", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3938, "fair_spread": -0.081, "fair_total": 2.917, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Aston Villa", "estimate": 1.418, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Brentford", "estimate": 1.499, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.558, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5894, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Aston Villa", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2234, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Brentford", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2422, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Johan Manzambi (Aston Villa)", "estimate": 0.312, "probability": 0.268, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Igor Thiago (Brentford)", "estimate": 0.4515, "probability": 0.3633, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Matteo Ruggeri (Aston Villa)", "estimate": 0.1977, "probability": 0.1794, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jannik Schuster (Brentford)", "estimate": 0.2311, "probability": 0.2063, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.917, "expected_total_shots": 29, "expected_total_passes": 817, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.7, "possession_home_pct": 50.7, "possession_away_pct": 49.3, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Brentford", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3938, "script": "Brentford is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.08 goals and fair total 2.92.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Aston Villa must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Brentford lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Brentford chance creation leans on Igor Thiago against Tyrone Mings, Aaron Wan-Bissaka in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Aston Villa: starters carry the main goal usage through Nicolas Jackson; bench watchlist: Donyell Malen, Amadou Onana, Ibrahim Mbaye.", "Brentford: starters carry the main goal usage through Igor Thiago, Kevin Schade; bench watchlist: Dango Ouattara, Antoni Milambo, Reiss Nelson.", "Assist usage should flow through Matteo Ruggeri, Jannik Schuster; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Brentford tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.46 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Aston Villa is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Brentford.", "Aston Villa wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Aston Villa": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Nicolas Jackson": { "player_id": 1085381, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 186, "market_value": 39000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.304, "goal_rate": 0.3295, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.0965, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8004, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.2714, "dispossessed": 1.2627, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.12, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 49, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0146, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.21, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kristoffer Ajer, Jannik Schuster", "opponent_faced": "Kristoffer Ajer, Jannik Schuster", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2621, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.092, "finishing_factor": 1.2013, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363870, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4356, "expected_assists": 0.0184, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363639, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363262, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2356, "expected_assists": 0.4392, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363245, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.099, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1269, "combined_rank_score": 551.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 224.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1571, "sofascore_appearances": 10.0, "fifa_rank": 879.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8004, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nicolas Jackson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Séamus Coleman", "ranking": 1264 }, { "player_name": "Castello Lukeba", "ranking": 1265 }, { "player_name": "Matz Sels", "ranking": 1266 }, { "player_name": "Nathan Aké", "ranking": 1267 }, { "player_name": "Nicolas Raskin", "ranking": 1268 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Joël Veltman", "ranking": 1270 }, { "player_name": "Giorgi Papava", "ranking": 1271 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Gavi", "ranking": 1272 }, { "player_name": "Martin Boakye", "ranking": 1273 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Caseres", "ranking": 1274 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.508, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.508, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0451, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Aston Villa", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 70.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0533 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Aston Villa, rel: 0.05, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2508, "goals": 0.3169, "goal_rate": 0.3169, "shots_on_target": 0.8372, "total_shots": 2.3006, "expected_assists": 0.0807, "key_pass": 0.8845, "rating": 6.8004, "minutes": 75.05, "total_pass": 12.2134, "accurate_pass": 10.4216, "duels_won": 4.1412, "total_long_balls": 0.3138, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3138, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3465, "crosses_total": 0.7333, "crosses_accurate": 0.1927, "touches": 27.5814, "possession_lost": 7.9145, "dispossessed": 1.2082, "duels_lost": 4.5845, "aerial_lost": 0.2267, "total_contest": 5.5236, "won_contest": 2.9545, "ball_recovery": 1.9731, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5806, "fouls_drawn": 0.5405, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3138, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2267, "big_chances_missed": 0.3138, "xgot": 0.099, "offsides": 0.8544, "ball_carries": 7.8946, "total_progression": 46.9389, "progressive_carries": 2.1342, "shots_off_target": 1.4634 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1901, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 9.7529, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 8.3465, "accuratePass": 10.4216, "totalShots": 2.3363 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.2508328855037689, "model_output": 0.2508, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0744 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0172 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0086 } ], "others": -0.0146, "total": 0.2508, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.317838 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.079889 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.065935 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.048581 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.032921 } ], "others_margin": -0.056514 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.3168949782848358, "model_output": 0.3169, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0747 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0309 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0047, "total": 0.3169, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.312502 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.105343 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.051288 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.038951 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.026579 } ], "others_margin": -0.015081 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.8372194170951843, "model_output": 0.8372, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1957 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"decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5304 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2559 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.1003 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0526 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0289 } ], "others": -0.0462, "total": 2.3006, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.530361 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.255926 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.100333 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.052602 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.028875 } ], "others_margin": -0.046165 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08074621111154556, "model_output": 0.0807, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": 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"importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2259 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.054 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0334 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.029 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0288 } ], "others": 0.0142, "total": 0.8845, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.289072 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.061864 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.040317 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.03503 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.033678 } ], "others_margin": 0.016207 } }, { "target": 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"opponent_defenders": "Kristoffer Ajer, Jannik Schuster", "opponent_faced": "Kristoffer Ajer, Jannik Schuster", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Kristoffer Ajer, Jannik Schuster", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.21, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0146, "skill_edge": 0.0379, "height_edge": -0.028, "attacker_skill": 0.7754, "defender_skill": 0.6911, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Kristoffer Ajer", "market_value": 24000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.732 }, { "player": "Jannik Schuster", "market_value": 16500000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6503 } ], "xg_override": 0.2659 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.3876, "after": 2.4225 }, { "stat": 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0.0522 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0138 } ], "others": 0.0082, "total": 6.8512, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052247 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.014532 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.01406 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.013765 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.013757 } ], "others_margin": 0.008164 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 26, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0023, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1479, "goals": 0.2172, "goal_rate": 0.2172, "shots_on_target": 0.5876, "total_shots": 1.731, "expected_assists": 0.0855, "key_pass": 1.1493, "rating": 6.8512, "minutes": 78.64, "total_pass": 27.5514, "accurate_pass": 21.7328, "duels_won": 5.6266, "total_long_balls": 1.2752, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8477, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.9424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6807, "crosses_total": 1.1865, "crosses_accurate": 0.0797, "touches": 43.2974, "possession_lost": 10.1994, "dispossessed": 1.0894, "duels_lost": 6.1788, "aerial_lost": 1.7136, "total_contest": 1.3527, "won_contest": 0.6583, "ball_recovery": 4.1996, "challenges_lost": 1.4758, "fouls": 1.2605, "fouls_drawn": 1.7625, "assists": 0.0036, "assist_rate": 0.0036, "interceptions": 1.0175, 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0.4905, "total_shots": 1.445, "expected_assists": 0.0855, "key_pass": 1.1493, "rating": 6.8512, "minutes": 78.64, "total_pass": 27.5514, "accurate_pass": 21.7328, "duels_won": 5.6266, "total_long_balls": 1.2752, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8477, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.9424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6807, "crosses_total": 1.1865, "crosses_accurate": 0.0797, "touches": 43.2974, "possession_lost": 10.1994, "dispossessed": 1.0894, "duels_lost": 6.1788, "aerial_lost": 1.7136, "total_contest": 1.3527, "won_contest": 0.6583, "ball_recovery": 4.1996, "challenges_lost": 1.4758, "fouls": 1.2605, "fouls_drawn": 1.7625, "assists": 0.0036, "assist_rate": 0.0036, "interceptions": 1.0175, "tackles_won": 1.2361, "tackles": 2.2362, "clearances": 0.3857, "blocks": 0.0648, "big_chances_created": 0.1705, "big_chances_missed": 0.1087, "xgot": 0.0873, "offsides": 0.1158, "ball_carries": 9.5352, "total_progression": 36.3405, "progressive_carries": 1.3445, "shots_off_target": 0.9545, 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} ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1412, "goal_rate": 0.1813, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4905, "total_shots": 1.445, "expected_assists": 0.0977, "key_pass": 1.1493, "rating": 6.8512, "minutes": 78.64, "total_pass": 27.5514, "accurate_pass": 21.7328, "duels_won": 5.6266, "total_long_balls": 1.2752, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8477, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.9424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6807, "crosses_total": 1.1865, "crosses_accurate": 0.0797, "touches": 43.2974, "possession_lost": 10.1994, "dispossessed": 1.0894, "duels_lost": 6.1788, "aerial_lost": 1.7136, "total_contest": 1.3527, "won_contest": 0.6583, "ball_recovery": 4.1996, "challenges_lost": 1.4758, "fouls": 1.2605, "fouls_drawn": 1.7625, "assist_rate": 0.0036, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.0175, "tackles_won": 1.2361, "tackles": 2.2362, 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"ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1418, "fifa_rank": 668.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1412, "goal_rate": 0.1813, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4905, "total_shots": 1.445, "expected_assists": 0.0977, "key_pass": 1.1493, "rating": 6.8512, "minutes": 78.64, "total_pass": 27.5514, "accurate_pass": 21.7328, "duels_won": 5.6266, "total_long_balls": 1.2752, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8477, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.9424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6807, "crosses_total": 1.1865, "crosses_accurate": 0.0797, "touches": 43.2974, "possession_lost": 10.1994, "dispossessed": 1.0894, "duels_lost": 6.1788, "aerial_lost": 1.7136, "total_contest": 1.3527, "won_contest": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0787, quality 0.872)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0614, "expected_assists": 0.1154, "assists": 0.1268, "assist_rate": 0.1268, "expected_goals": 0.2367, "goals": 0.2467, "goal_rate": 0.2467, "shots_on_target": 0.7149, "total_shots": 2.0805, "rating": 6.7512, "minutes": 81.33, "total_pass": 15.4516, "accurate_pass": 13.2942, "duels_won": 2.8279, "total_long_balls": 1.0787, "accurate_long_balls": 0.583, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4898, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9067, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3876, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.7575, "possession_lost": 8.8919, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7404, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.0787, "clearances": 0.583, "total_contest": 3.3236, "won_contest": 0.583, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1662, "blocks": 0.583, "big_chances_created": 0.583, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.5732, "ball_carries": 11.3118, "total_progression": 44.7932, "progressive_carries": 1.6617, "shots_off_target": 1.3656 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 71000000, "quality_factor": 0.8721, "boost_factor": 1.0787, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0614, "expected_assists": 0.1154, "assists": 0.1268, "assist_rate": 0.1268, "expected_goals": 0.2367, "goals": 0.2467, "goal_rate": 0.2467, "shots_on_target": 0.7149, "total_shots": 2.0805, "rating": 6.7512, "minutes": 81.33, "total_pass": 15.4516, "accurate_pass": 13.2942, "duels_won": 2.8279, "total_long_balls": 1.0787, "accurate_long_balls": 0.583, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4898, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9067, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3876, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.7575, "possession_lost": 8.8919, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7404, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.0787, "clearances": 0.583, "total_contest": 3.3236, "won_contest": 0.583, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1662, "blocks": 0.583, "big_chances_created": 0.583, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.5732, "ball_carries": 11.3118, "total_progression": 44.7932, "progressive_carries": 1.6617, "shots_off_target": 1.3656 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0614, "expected_assists": 0.1154, "assists": 0.1268, "assist_rate": 0.1268, "expected_goals": 0.2729, "goals": 0.2844, "goal_rate": 0.2844, "shots_on_target": 0.8243, "total_shots": 2.3988, "rating": 6.7512, "minutes": 81.33, "total_pass": 15.4516, "accurate_pass": 13.2942, "duels_won": 2.8279, "total_long_balls": 1.0787, "accurate_long_balls": 0.583, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4898, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9067, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3876, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.7575, "possession_lost": 8.8919, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7404, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.0787, "clearances": 0.583, "total_contest": 3.3236, "won_contest": 0.583, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1662, "blocks": 0.583, "big_chances_created": 0.583, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.6609, "ball_carries": 11.3118, "total_progression": 44.7932, "progressive_carries": 1.6617, "shots_off_target": 1.5745, 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[ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0805, "after": 2.3988 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3656, "after": 1.5745 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7149, "after": 0.8243 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.5732, "after": 0.6609 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2467, "after": 0.2844 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2367, "after": 0.2729 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.2403, xG scale 1.1432, xA scale 1.1432, team xA 0.93 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0614, "expected_assists": 0.1319, "assist_rate": 0.1268, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.312, "goal_rate": 0.2844, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8243, "total_shots": 2.3988, "rating": 6.7512, "minutes": 81.33, "total_pass": 15.4516, "accurate_pass": 13.2942, "duels_won": 2.8279, 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0.1319, "assist_rate": 0.1268, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.312, "goal_rate": 0.2844, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8243, "total_shots": 2.3988, "rating": 6.7512, "minutes": 81.33, "total_pass": 15.4516, "accurate_pass": 13.2942, "duels_won": 2.8279, "total_long_balls": 1.0787, "accurate_long_balls": 0.583, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4898, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9067, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3876, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.7575, "possession_lost": 8.8919, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7404, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.0787, "clearances": 0.583, "total_contest": 3.3236, "won_contest": 0.583, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1662, "blocks": 0.583, "big_chances_created": 0.583, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.7556, "ball_carries": 11.3118, "total_progression": 44.7932, "progressive_carries": 1.6617, 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"description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0614, "expected_assists": 0.1319, "assist_rate": 0.1268, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.312, "goal_rate": 0.2844, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8243, "total_shots": 2.3988, "rating": 6.7512, "minutes": 81.33, "total_pass": 15.4516, "accurate_pass": 13.2942, "duels_won": 2.8279, "total_long_balls": 1.0787, "accurate_long_balls": 0.583, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4898, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9067, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3876, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.7575, "possession_lost": 8.8919, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7404, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.0787, "clearances": 0.583, "total_contest": 3.3236, "won_contest": 0.583, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1662, 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"appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nicolas Jackson", "weight": 0.3652, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3652, "runner_up": "Johan Manzambi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3231 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0614, "expected_assists": 0.1319, "assist_rate": 0.1268, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.312, "goal_rate": 0.2844, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8243, "total_shots": 2.3988, "rating": 6.7512, "minutes": 81.33, "total_pass": 15.4516, "accurate_pass": 13.2942, "duels_won": 2.8279, "total_long_balls": 1.0787, "accurate_long_balls": 0.583, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4898, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9067, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3876, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.7575, "possession_lost": 8.8919, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7404, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.0787, "clearances": 0.583, "total_contest": 3.3236, "won_contest": 0.583, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1662, "blocks": 0.583, "big_chances_created": 0.583, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.7556, "ball_carries": 11.3118, "total_progression": 44.7932, "progressive_carries": 1.6617, "shots_off_target": 1.5745, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.153, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.584, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "opponent_faced": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.268, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1236, "finishing_factor": 1.0356, "creation_factor": 1.0689, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1236, "provider_weight": 0.141, "squad_weight_total": 0.934, "weight_share": 0.1509, "creation_factor": 1.0689, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Matteo Ruggeri", "weight": 0.1855, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1855, "runner_up": "Johan Manzambi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.141, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Nicolas Jackson" ] } ] } } ] }, "John McGinn": { "player_id": 250223, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 178, "market_value": 12600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1141, "goal_rate": 0.1347, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0963, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7741, 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"numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kristoffer Ajer, Jannik Schuster", "opponent_faced": "Kristoffer Ajer, Jannik Schuster", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1078, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0918, "finishing_factor": 1.233, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363870, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0429, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 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"ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0355, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { 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"league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1435, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025030, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 1.0298, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 4, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 442, "combined_rank_score": 268.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 267.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0833, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 270.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7741, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "John McGinn", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ángel Di María", "ranking": 437 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo De Paul", "ranking": 438 }, { "player_name": "Fejsal Mulić", "ranking": 439 }, { "player_name": "Abrorbek Ismoilov", "ranking": 440 }, { "player_name": "Unai Eguíluz", "ranking": 441 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ezri Konsa", "ranking": 443 }, { "player_name": "Cristian Renato", "ranking": 444 }, { "player_name": "Ivan Perišić", "ranking": 445 }, { "player_name": "Piero Hincapié", "ranking": 446 }, { "player_name": "Ha Jung-Woo", "ranking": 447 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.769, "history_matches": 35, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", 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"importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0086 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0097 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0056 } ], "others": -0.0083, "total": 0.084, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.125168 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.125113 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119502 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.071509 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.062529 } ], "others_margin": -0.092835 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.4151227474212646, "model_output": 1.4151, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2013 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1562 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.1104 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0958 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0479 } ], "others": 0.1295, "total": 1.4151, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.261376 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.164155 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.101715 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.080576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.037972 } ], "others_margin": 0.095982 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.77410364151001, "model_output": 6.7741, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0386 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0171 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0144 } ], "others": 0.0128, "total": 6.7741, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.038574 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.025055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.017143 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.017135 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.014418 } ], "others_margin": 0.012832 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0018, quality 0.552)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1217, "goals": 0.166, "goal_rate": 0.166, "shots_on_target": 0.468, "total_shots": 1.2837, "expected_assists": 0.0842, "key_pass": 1.4177, "rating": 6.7741, "minutes": 82.26, "total_pass": 24.7808, "accurate_pass": 19.3769, "duels_won": 3.7588, "total_long_balls": 3.0164, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4196, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4793, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8879, "crosses_total": 3.5539, "crosses_accurate": 0.5783, "touches": 40.7495, "possession_lost": 13.1714, "dispossessed": 2.0087, "duels_lost": 5.085, "aerial_lost": 0.7664, "total_contest": 1.658, "won_contest": 0.5992, "ball_recovery": 3.1896, "challenges_lost": 0.296, "fouls": 1.0641, "fouls_drawn": 2.1451, "assists": 0.3944, "assist_rate": 0.3944, "interceptions": 0.641, "tackles_won": 0.3728, "tackles": 0.7362, "clearances": 0.5355, "blocks": 0.0404, "big_chances_created": 0.3096, "big_chances_missed": 0.1764, "xgot": 0.0569, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0708, "total_progression": 20.2002, "progressive_carries": 0.7095, "shots_off_target": 0.8157 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 12600000, "quality_factor": 0.5525, "boost_factor": 1.0018, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0103)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1217, "goals": 0.1643, "goal_rate": 0.1643, "shots_on_target": 0.4632, "total_shots": 1.2854, "expected_assists": 0.0842, "key_pass": 1.4177, "rating": 6.7741, "minutes": 82.26, "total_pass": 24.7808, "accurate_pass": 19.3769, "duels_won": 3.7588, "total_long_balls": 3.0164, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4196, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4793, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8879, "crosses_total": 3.547, "crosses_accurate": 0.5783, "touches": 40.7495, "possession_lost": 13.1714, "dispossessed": 2.0087, "duels_lost": 5.085, "aerial_lost": 0.7664, "total_contest": 1.658, "won_contest": 0.5992, "ball_recovery": 3.1896, "challenges_lost": 0.296, "fouls": 1.073, "fouls_drawn": 2.1527, "assists": 0.3903, "assist_rate": 0.3903, "interceptions": 0.6443, "tackles_won": 0.3739, "tackles": 0.7362, "clearances": 0.5355, "blocks": 0.0404, "big_chances_created": 0.3096, "big_chances_missed": 0.1764, "xgot": 0.0569, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0708, "total_progression": 20.2002, "progressive_carries": 0.7095, "shots_off_target": 0.8157 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0103, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.914, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.0641, "after": 1.073 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 2.1451, "after": 2.1527 }, { "stat": 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0.5355, "blocks": 0.0404, "big_chances_created": 0.3096, "big_chances_missed": 0.1764, "xgot": 0.0569, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0708, "total_progression": 20.2002, "progressive_carries": 0.7095, "shots_off_target": 0.8157 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0998, "goals": 0.1347, "goal_rate": 0.1347, "shots_on_target": 0.3799, "total_shots": 1.0542, "expected_assists": 0.0842, "key_pass": 1.4177, "rating": 6.7741, "minutes": 82.26, "total_pass": 24.7808, "accurate_pass": 19.3769, "duels_won": 3.7588, "total_long_balls": 3.0164, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4196, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4793, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8879, "crosses_total": 3.547, "crosses_accurate": 0.5783, "touches": 40.7495, "possession_lost": 13.1714, "dispossessed": 2.0087, "duels_lost": 5.085, "aerial_lost": 0.7664, "total_contest": 1.658, "won_contest": 0.5992, "ball_recovery": 3.1896, "challenges_lost": 0.296, "fouls": 1.073, "fouls_drawn": 2.1527, "assists": 0.3903, "assist_rate": 0.3903, "interceptions": 0.6443, "tackles_won": 0.3739, "tackles": 0.7362, "clearances": 0.5355, "blocks": 0.0404, "big_chances_created": 0.3096, "big_chances_missed": 0.1447, "xgot": 0.0467, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0708, "total_progression": 20.2002, "progressive_carries": 0.7095, "shots_off_target": 0.669, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8201, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kristoffer Ajer, Jannik Schuster", "opponent_faced": "Kristoffer Ajer, Jannik Schuster", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Kristoffer Ajer, Jannik Schuster", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.8201, "skill_edge": -0.0624, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.5525, "defender_skill": 0.6911, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Kristoffer Ajer", "market_value": 24000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.732 }, { "player": "Jannik Schuster", "market_value": 16500000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6503 } ], "xg_override": 0.0998 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2854, "after": 1.0542 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.8157, "after": 0.669 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4632, "after": 0.3799 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1764, "after": 0.1447 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1643, "after": 0.1347 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1217, "after": 0.0998 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0569, "after": 0.0467 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.2403, xG scale 1.1432, xA scale 1.1432, team xA 0.93 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1141, "goal_rate": 0.1347, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3799, "total_shots": 1.0542, "expected_assists": 0.0963, "key_pass": 1.4177, "rating": 6.7741, "minutes": 82.26, "total_pass": 24.7808, "accurate_pass": 19.3769, "duels_won": 3.7588, "total_long_balls": 3.0164, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4196, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4793, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8879, "crosses_total": 3.547, "crosses_accurate": 0.5783, "touches": 40.7495, "possession_lost": 13.1714, "dispossessed": 2.0087, "duels_lost": 5.085, "aerial_lost": 0.7664, "total_contest": 1.658, "won_contest": 0.5992, "ball_recovery": 3.1896, "challenges_lost": 0.296, "fouls": 1.073, "fouls_drawn": 2.1527, "assist_rate": 0.3903, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6443, "tackles_won": 0.3739, "tackles": 0.7362, "clearances": 0.5355, "blocks": 0.0404, "big_chances_created": 0.3096, "big_chances_missed": 0.1447, "xgot": 0.0534, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0708, "total_progression": 20.2002, "progressive_carries": 0.7095, "shots_off_target": 0.669, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8201, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kristoffer Ajer, Jannik Schuster", "opponent_faced": "Kristoffer Ajer, Jannik Schuster", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.233, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.418, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2403, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8118, "team_expected_assists": 0.9281, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6545, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1432, "xa_scale": 1.1432, "opponent_lambda": 1.499, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0998, "after": 0.1141 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0842, "after": 0.0963 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1141, "goal_rate": 0.1347, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3799, "total_shots": 1.0542, "expected_assists": 0.0963, "key_pass": 1.4177, "rating": 6.7741, "minutes": 82.26, "total_pass": 24.7808, "accurate_pass": 19.3769, "duels_won": 3.7588, "total_long_balls": 3.0164, "accurate_long_balls": 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"numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kristoffer Ajer, Jannik Schuster", "opponent_faced": "Kristoffer Ajer, Jannik Schuster", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.233, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 442, "fifa_rank": 270.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1141, "goal_rate": 0.1347, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3799, "total_shots": 1.0542, "expected_assists": 0.0963, "key_pass": 1.4177, "rating": 6.7741, "minutes": 82.26, "total_pass": 24.7808, "accurate_pass": 19.3769, "duels_won": 3.7588, "total_long_balls": 3.0164, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4196, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4793, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8879, "crosses_total": 3.547, "crosses_accurate": 0.5783, "touches": 40.7495, "possession_lost": 13.1714, "dispossessed": 2.0087, "duels_lost": 5.085, "aerial_lost": 0.7664, "total_contest": 1.658, "won_contest": 0.5992, "ball_recovery": 3.1896, "challenges_lost": 0.296, "fouls": 1.073, "fouls_drawn": 2.1527, "assist_rate": 0.3903, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6443, "tackles_won": 0.3739, "tackles": 0.7362, "clearances": 0.5355, "blocks": 0.0404, "big_chances_created": 0.3096, "big_chances_missed": 0.1447, "xgot": 0.0534, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0708, "total_progression": 20.2002, "progressive_carries": 0.7095, "shots_off_target": 0.669, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8201, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, 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"runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3231 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1141, "goal_rate": 0.1347, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3799, "total_shots": 1.0542, "expected_assists": 0.0963, "key_pass": 1.4177, "rating": 6.7741, "minutes": 82.26, "total_pass": 24.7808, "accurate_pass": 19.3769, "duels_won": 3.7588, "total_long_balls": 3.0164, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4196, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4793, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8879, "crosses_total": 3.547, "crosses_accurate": 0.5783, "touches": 40.7495, "possession_lost": 13.1714, "dispossessed": 2.0087, "duels_lost": 5.085, "aerial_lost": 0.7664, "total_contest": 1.658, "won_contest": 0.5992, "ball_recovery": 3.1896, "challenges_lost": 0.296, "fouls": 1.073, "fouls_drawn": 2.1527, "assist_rate": 0.3903, "assists": 0, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0713 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0453 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0325 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0219 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0177 } ], "others": -0.0059, "total": 0.1732, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.248402 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.197502 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.17042 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11784 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.094091 } ], "others_margin": -0.033698 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5989577770233154, "model_output": 0.599, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2428 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1188 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0602 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.051 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0472 } ], "others": -0.1091, "total": 0.599, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.242846 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118804 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.060246 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", 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"margin": 0.030291 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028712 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.021071 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.018234 } ], "others_margin": -0.108644 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 34, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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1.3208, "total_contest": 2.1788, "won_contest": 1.3415, "challenges_lost": 1.4886, "fouls": 2.2016, "fouls_drawn": 1.5216, "blocks": 0.2406, "big_chances_created": 0.0517, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0664, "ball_carries": 15.387, "total_progression": 47.2176, "progressive_carries": 1.6161, "shots_off_target": 0.4296 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 36000000, "quality_factor": 0.7581, "boost_factor": 1.009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0021)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6706, "expected_assists": 0.0627, "assists": 0.0712, "assist_rate": 0.0712, "expected_goals": 0.0417, "goals": 0.0463, "goal_rate": 0.0463, "shots_on_target": 0.1744, "total_shots": 0.6032, "rating": 6.7268, "minutes": 82.67, "total_pass": 36.0719, "accurate_pass": 31.174, "duels_won": 7.2831, "total_long_balls": 1.8448, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0645, 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0.2406, "big_chances_created": 0.0517, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0664, "ball_carries": 15.387, "total_progression": 47.2176, "progressive_carries": 1.6161, "shots_off_target": 0.4296 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6706, "expected_assists": 0.0627, "assists": 0.0712, "assist_rate": 0.0712, "expected_goals": 0.0443, "goals": 0.0492, "goal_rate": 0.0492, "shots_on_target": 0.1854, "total_shots": 0.642, "rating": 6.7268, "minutes": 82.67, "total_pass": 36.0719, "accurate_pass": 31.174, "duels_won": 7.2831, "total_long_balls": 1.8448, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0645, "total_own_half_passes": 17.2451, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5303, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8267, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.6436, "crosses_total": 0.5899, "crosses_accurate": 0.2082, "touches": 54.5337, 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"matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.463, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0629, "skill_edge": 0.0748, "height_edge": -0.032, "attacker_skill": 0.7926, "defender_skill": 0.6264, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Vitaly Janelt", "market_value": 16600000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.6264 } ], "xg_override": 0.0443 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.5143, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.604, "after": 0.642 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4296, "after": 0.4566 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1744, "after": 0.1854 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.2403, xG scale 1.1432, xA scale 1.1432, team xA 0.93 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6706, "expected_assists": 0.0717, "assist_rate": 0.0712, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0506, "goal_rate": 0.0492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1854, "total_shots": 0.642, "rating": 6.7268, "minutes": 82.67, "total_pass": 36.0719, "accurate_pass": 31.174, "duels_won": 7.2831, "total_long_balls": 1.8448, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0645, "total_own_half_passes": 17.2451, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5303, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8267, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.6436, "crosses_total": 0.5899, "crosses_accurate": 0.2082, "touches": 54.5337, "possession_lost": 9.3365, "dispossessed": 2.0301, "duels_lost": 7.0867, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.6538, "interceptions": 1.1611, "tackles_won": 2.3051, "tackles": 3.9057, "clearances": 1.3208, "total_contest": 2.1788, "won_contest": 1.3415, "challenges_lost": 1.4886, "fouls": 2.2018, "fouls_drawn": 1.5232, "blocks": 0.2406, "big_chances_created": 0.0517, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0807, "ball_carries": 15.387, 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{ "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.3241 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.2937 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2033 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.1275 } ], "others": -0.2385, "total": 2.7361, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128134 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.08621 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.085126 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.063461 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.041966 } ], "others_margin": -0.083607 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8755170106887817, "model_output": 0.8755, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.269 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1354 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0777 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0649 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0458 } ], "others": -0.1845, "total": 0.8755, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.216471 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114799 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.064282 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.05702 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.042312 } ], "others_margin": -0.191208 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.48011428117752075, "model_output": 0.4801, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0843 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0557 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0241 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0153 } ], "others": 0.0204, "total": 0.4801, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.084278 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.055667 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.024077 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022203 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.015252 } ], "others_margin": 0.020468 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.670558929443359, "model_output": 6.6706, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0289 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0394, "total": 6.6706, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028912 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013449 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011096 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.010917 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.010798 } ], "others_margin": -0.039403 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0083, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3097, "tackles": 1.8879, "tackles_won": 1.0259, "clearances": 2.7588, "aerial_won": 0.8828, "total_shots": 0.4841, "rating": 6.6706, "minutes": 85.73, "total_pass": 40.3422, "accurate_pass": 35.0565, "duels_won": 2.9331, "total_long_balls": 2.9589, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4465, "total_own_half_passes": 20.1961, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0002, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.146, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0562, "crosses_total": 4.0584, "crosses_accurate": 0.9934, "touches": 63.813, "possession_lost": 11.004, "dispossessed": 0.6308, "duels_lost": 3.9532, "aerial_lost": 0.6758, "total_contest": 0.7438, "won_contest": 0.4094, "ball_recovery": 5.3069, "challenges_lost": 1.4643, "fouls": 0.961, "fouls_drawn": 0.2452, "blocks": 0.1428, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1592, "assist_rate": 0.1592, "expected_goals": 0.0093, "expected_assists": 0.1729, "shots_on_target": 0.0277, "big_chances_created": 0.2651, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 12.9347, "total_progression": 38.7811, "progressive_carries": 1.4556, "key_pass": 1.4178, "shots_off_target": 0.4564 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0083, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0006)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3089, "tackles": 1.8879, "tackles_won": 1.0252, "clearances": 2.7588, "aerial_won": 0.8828, "total_shots": 0.4838, "rating": 6.6706, "minutes": 85.73, "total_pass": 40.3422, "accurate_pass": 35.0565, "duels_won": 2.9331, "total_long_balls": 2.9589, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4465, "total_own_half_passes": 20.1961, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0002, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.146, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0562, "crosses_total": 4.0558, "crosses_accurate": 0.9934, "touches": 63.813, "possession_lost": 11.004, "dispossessed": 0.6308, "duels_lost": 3.9532, "aerial_lost": 0.6758, "total_contest": 0.7438, "won_contest": 0.4094, "ball_recovery": 5.3069, "challenges_lost": 1.4643, "fouls": 0.9604, "fouls_drawn": 0.245, "blocks": 0.1428, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1591, "assist_rate": 0.1591, "expected_goals": 0.0093, "expected_assists": 0.1729, "shots_on_target": 0.0277, "big_chances_created": 0.2651, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 12.9347, "total_progression": 38.7811, "progressive_carries": 1.4556, "key_pass": 1.4178, "shots_off_target": 0.4564 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0006, "history_matches": 29, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9526, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3089, "tackles": 1.8879, "tackles_won": 1.0252, "clearances": 2.7588, "aerial_won": 0.8828, "total_shots": 0.4841, "rating": 6.6706, "minutes": 85.73, "total_pass": 40.3422, "accurate_pass": 35.0565, "duels_won": 2.9331, "total_long_balls": 2.9589, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4465, "total_own_half_passes": 20.1961, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0002, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.146, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0562, "crosses_total": 4.0558, "crosses_accurate": 0.9934, "touches": 63.813, "possession_lost": 11.004, "dispossessed": 0.6308, "duels_lost": 3.9532, "aerial_lost": 0.6758, "total_contest": 0.7438, "won_contest": 0.4094, "ball_recovery": 5.3069, "challenges_lost": 1.4643, "fouls": 0.9604, "fouls_drawn": 0.245, "blocks": 0.1428, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1591, "assist_rate": 0.1591, "expected_goals": 0.0093, "expected_assists": 0.1729, "shots_on_target": 0.0277, 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1.3089, "tackles": 1.8879, "tackles_won": 1.0252, "clearances": 2.7588, "aerial_won": 0.8828, "total_shots": 0.4841, "rating": 6.6706, "minutes": 85.73, "total_pass": 40.3422, "accurate_pass": 35.0565, "duels_won": 2.9331, "total_long_balls": 2.9589, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4465, "total_own_half_passes": 20.1961, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0002, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.146, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0562, "crosses_total": 4.0558, "crosses_accurate": 0.9934, "touches": 63.813, "possession_lost": 11.004, "dispossessed": 0.6308, "duels_lost": 3.9532, "aerial_lost": 0.6758, "total_contest": 0.7438, "won_contest": 0.4094, "ball_recovery": 5.3069, "challenges_lost": 1.4643, "fouls": 0.9604, "fouls_drawn": 0.245, "blocks": 0.1428, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1591, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0106, "expected_assists": 0.1977, "shots_on_target": 0.0277, "big_chances_created": 0.2651, "xgot": 0.0098, "ball_carries": 12.9347, "total_progression": 38.7811, 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50.9189, "duels_won": 0.8873, "total_long_balls": 2.6712, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2405, "total_own_half_passes": 35.6477, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.8931, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7418, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0259, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.6133, "possession_lost": 4.0396, "dispossessed": 0.1532, "duels_lost": 1.4847, "aerial_lost": 1.0024, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.458, "challenges_lost": 0.1137, "fouls": 0.2155, "fouls_drawn": 0.0519, "blocks": 0.4415, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0142, "assist_rate": 0.0142, "expected_goals": 0.0704, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "shots_on_target": 0.1377, "big_chances_created": 0.0319, "xgot": 0.1027, "ball_carries": 24.2505, "total_progression": 99.5018, "progressive_carries": 0.7202, "key_pass": 0.4422, "shots_off_target": 0.2005 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1543, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1312, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1115, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0948, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0806, "rating": 5.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0685, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-15", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0582, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0495, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0421, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0357, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 2.8754, "aerialWon": 0.4456, "totalClearance_p90": 3.2143, "totalTackle": 0.2944, "totalPass": 49.867 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.797166645526886, "model_output": 0.7972, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", 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"totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.2025 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.152 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0999 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0663 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0602 } ], "others": -0.2605, "total": 0.8565, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.157005 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120104 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.077303 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.054823 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.052463 } ], "others_margin": -0.265459 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.5752390027046204, "model_output": 0.5752, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1263 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0831 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0645 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0506 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.034 } ], "others": -0.0869, "total": 0.5752, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.16002 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.108066 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.082812 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.070189 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.050009 } ], "others_margin": -0.140592 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.691218376159668, "model_output": 3.6912, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4968 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.4853 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.3852 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.3216 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1978 } ], "others": 0.1623, "total": 3.6912, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134469 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.11593 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.090901 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.082775 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.054543 } ], "others_margin": 0.044994 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.0244853496551514, "model_output": 1.0245, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.4703 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1164 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1132 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0651 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.042 } ], "others": -0.0937, "total": 1.0245, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.415924 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120192 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.104425 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.058719 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.03827 } ], "others_margin": -0.087606 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3381820023059845, "model_output": 0.3382, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0901 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0514 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0166 } ], "others": -0.0732, "total": 0.3382, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.090106 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051389 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.019425 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018213 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.01656 } ], "others_margin": -0.073154 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.726203918457031, "model_output": 6.7262, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0218 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": -0.0114, "total": 6.7262, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023084 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.021807 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.019833 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014837 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.011566 } ], "others_margin": -0.011414 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.460)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7952, "tackles": 0.8544, "tackles_won": 0.5738, "clearances": 3.682, "aerial_won": 1.0219, "total_shots": 0.3374, "rating": 6.7262, "minutes": 85.73, "total_pass": 54.2534, "accurate_pass": 50.7916, "duels_won": 0.8851, "total_long_balls": 2.6645, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2374, "total_own_half_passes": 35.5586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.8084, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9833, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.4618, "possession_lost": 4.0295, "dispossessed": 0.1528, "duels_lost": 1.481, "aerial_lost": 0.9999, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4544, "challenges_lost": 0.1134, "fouls": 0.215, "fouls_drawn": 0.0518, "blocks": 0.4404, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0142, "assist_rate": 0.0142, "expected_goals": 0.0702, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "shots_on_target": 0.1374, "big_chances_created": 0.0318, "xgot": 0.1024, "ball_carries": 24.1899, "total_progression": 99.253, "progressive_carries": 0.7184, "key_pass": 0.4411, "shots_off_target": 0.2 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4800000, "quality_factor": 0.4597, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0160)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7824, "tackles": 0.8544, "tackles_won": 0.5646, "clearances": 3.682, "aerial_won": 1.0219, "total_shots": 0.332, "rating": 6.7262, "minutes": 85.73, "total_pass": 54.2534, "accurate_pass": 50.7916, "duels_won": 0.8851, "total_long_balls": 2.6645, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2374, "total_own_half_passes": 35.5586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.8084, 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0.7824 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.5738, "after": 0.5646 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.3374, "after": 0.332 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7824, "tackles": 0.8544, "tackles_won": 0.5646, "clearances": 3.682, "aerial_won": 1.0219, "total_shots": 0.3352, "rating": 6.7262, "minutes": 85.73, "total_pass": 54.2534, "accurate_pass": 50.7916, "duels_won": 0.8851, "total_long_balls": 2.6645, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2374, "total_own_half_passes": 35.5586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.8084, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9833, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.4618, "possession_lost": 4.0295, "dispossessed": 0.1528, "duels_lost": 1.481, "aerial_lost": 0.9999, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4544, "challenges_lost": 0.1134, "fouls": 0.2116, "fouls_drawn": 0.051, "blocks": 0.4404, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.014, "assist_rate": 0.014, "expected_goals": 0.0702, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "shots_on_target": 0.1352, "big_chances_created": 0.0318, "xgot": 0.1024, "ball_carries": 24.1899, "total_progression": 99.253, "progressive_carries": 0.7184, "key_pass": 0.4411, "shots_off_target": 0.2 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7824, "tackles": 0.8544, "tackles_won": 0.5646, "clearances": 3.682, "aerial_won": 1.0219, "total_shots": 0.3352, "rating": 6.7262, "minutes": 85.73, "total_pass": 54.2534, "accurate_pass": 50.7916, "duels_won": 0.8851, "total_long_balls": 2.6645, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2374, "total_own_half_passes": 35.5586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.8084, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9833, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.4618, "possession_lost": 4.0295, "dispossessed": 0.1528, "duels_lost": 1.481, "aerial_lost": 0.9999, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4544, "challenges_lost": 0.1134, "fouls": 0.2116, "fouls_drawn": 0.051, "blocks": 0.4404, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.014, "assist_rate": 0.014, "expected_goals": 0.0702, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "shots_on_target": 0.1352, "big_chances_created": 0.0318, "xgot": 0.1024, "ball_carries": 24.1899, "total_progression": 99.253, "progressive_carries": 0.7184, "key_pass": 0.4411, "shots_off_target": 0.2, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.443, "opponent_faced": "Yehor Yarmoliuk", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { 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], "others_margin": -0.087546 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6870858073234558, "model_output": 0.6871, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.493 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.108 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0966 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0513 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0419 } ], "others": -0.1201, "total": 0.6871, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.441133 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114657 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.101954 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.058616 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.050558 } ], "others_margin": -0.161245 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.36682868003845215, "model_output": 0.3668, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1178 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0528 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0091 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0197, "total": 0.3668, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.117805 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0028, quality 0.569)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1764, "tackles": 1.9119, "tackles_won": 1.2113, "clearances": 2.2609, "aerial_won": 0.689, "total_shots": 0.3679, "rating": 6.6214, "minutes": 80.27, "total_pass": 29.265, "accurate_pass": 23.3387, "duels_won": 3.2921, "total_long_balls": 2.2814, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6651, "total_own_half_passes": 11.7979, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.1414, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.4671, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1972, "crosses_total": 1.2883, "crosses_accurate": 0.2265, "touches": 52.1134, "possession_lost": 11.8476, "dispossessed": 0.6608, "duels_lost": 2.9221, "aerial_lost": 0.8744, "total_contest": 1.0417, "won_contest": 0.5311, "ball_recovery": 2.659, "challenges_lost": 0.4113, "fouls": 0.5661, "fouls_drawn": 0.3069, "blocks": 0.3327, "goals": 0.0, 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"importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0166, "items": [ { "name": "punches", "contribution": -0.0657 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.048 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0303 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.025 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.0176 } ], "others": 0.0351, "total": -0.0721, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "punches", "margin": -0.065666 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.047991 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.030338 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.024966 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": -0.017606 } ], "others_margin": 0.035083 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.0104522705078125, "model_output": 7.0105, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": 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0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0241)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0496, "goals_prevented": -0.0748, "rating": 7.0105, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.4091, "accurate_pass": 26.1565, "total_long_balls": 20.043, "accurate_long_balls": 7.2252, "touches": 54.3286, "clearances": 2.1637, "ball_recovery": 11.2465, "high_claims": 1.8129, "punches": 1.597, "aerial_won": 0.5116, "sweeper_actions": 2.2687, "sweeper_accurate": 2.2687, "saves_inside_box": 2.5169, "possession_lost": 13.4877, "duels_won": 0.5116, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4993, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4116, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.4516 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0241, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" }, "changes": [ { "stat": 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"league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025210, "match_date": "2025-12-14", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 34, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -1.2732 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025129, "match_date": "2025-12-03", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston 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"league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025016, "match_date": "2025-08-16", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 20, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.6442 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3175, "combined_rank_score": 1143.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 881.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5429, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 1406.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0445, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marco Bizot", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Edson Álvarez", "ranking": 3170 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Trapp", "ranking": 3171 }, { "player_name": "Sean Longstaff", "ranking": 3172 }, { "player_name": "Alexandr Golovin", "ranking": 3173 }, { "player_name": "Romain Perraud", "ranking": 3174 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Timothy Weah", "ranking": 3176 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Teze", "ranking": 3177 }, { "player_name": "Charlie Cresswell", "ranking": 3178 }, { "player_name": "Jaydee Canvot", "ranking": 3179 }, { "player_name": "Julio César Enciso", "ranking": 3180 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 8, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 8, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.131, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9922, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Aston Villa", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (8 historical appearances) to 4.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.13); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.8304, "goals_prevented": 0.0221, "rating": 7.0445, "minutes": 34.0, "total_pass": 33.6728, "accurate_pass": 25.0234, "total_long_balls": 13.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8243, "touches": 43.4928, "clearances": 1.6207, "ball_recovery": 6.7776, "high_claims": 1.3953, "punches": 0.8333, "aerial_won": 0.1076, "sweeper_actions": 1.0335, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0335, "saves_inside_box": 1.9513, "possession_lost": 8.947, "duels_won": 0.2153, "duels_lost": 0.0778, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0778, "fouls_drawn": 0.1076, "total_own_half_passes": 24.0294, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9965 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:04:18.353158+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 199, "rows": 6796 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2062, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1753, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.149, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-07", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1266, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-14", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1076, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-03", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0915, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2025-08-31", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0778, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2025-08-16", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0661, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 8.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.8678, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9213, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.362, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.2922, "save_contribution": 2.738, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.0335 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8303749561309814, "model_output": 2.8304, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0362 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9286, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.177 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.05 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0118 } ], "others": 0.0131, "total": 2.8304, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.074537, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.062345 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.018022 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.006737 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.005322 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.004186 } ], "others_margin": 0.004593 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.022112388163805008, "model_output": 0.0221, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0385 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0166, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0124 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0101 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": 0.0245, "total": 0.0221, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.015972 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.014445 }, { "name": 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7.009122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.017614 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.017041 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.013991 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.013069 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.01248 } ], "others_margin": 0.030535 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9922, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8083, "goals_prevented": 0.0219, "rating": 7.0445, "minutes": 34.0, "total_pass": 33.4102, "accurate_pass": 24.8282, "total_long_balls": 13.1947, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7867, "touches": 43.1536, "clearances": 1.6081, "ball_recovery": 6.7247, "high_claims": 1.3844, "punches": 0.8268, "aerial_won": 0.1068, "sweeper_actions": 1.0254, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0254, "saves_inside_box": 1.9361, "possession_lost": 8.8772, "duels_won": 0.2136, "duels_lost": 0.0772, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0772, "fouls_drawn": 0.1068, "total_own_half_passes": 23.842, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.8249 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9922, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0167)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7804, "goals_prevented": 0.0219, "rating": 7.0445, "minutes": 34.0, "total_pass": 33.4102, "accurate_pass": 24.8282, "total_long_balls": 13.1947, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7867, "touches": 43.1536, "clearances": 1.6081, "ball_recovery": 6.7247, "high_claims": 1.3844, "punches": 0.8268, "aerial_won": 0.1068, "sweeper_actions": 1.0254, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0254, "saves_inside_box": 1.9361, "possession_lost": 8.8772, "duels_won": 0.2136, "duels_lost": 0.0772, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0759, "fouls_drawn": 0.105, "total_own_half_passes": 23.842, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.8249 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0167, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3778, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.8083, "after": 2.7804 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 34.0 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.13)", "stats": { "saves": 0.3592, "goals_prevented": 0.0028, "rating": 7.0445, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.316, "accurate_pass": 3.2074, "total_long_balls": 1.7045, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6184, "touches": 5.5747, "clearances": 0.2077, "ball_recovery": 0.8687, "high_claims": 0.1788, "punches": 0.1068, "aerial_won": 0.0138, "sweeper_actions": 0.1325, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1325, "saves_inside_box": 0.2501, "possession_lost": 1.1468, "duels_won": 0.0276, "duels_lost": 0.01, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0136, "total_own_half_passes": 3.08, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 34.0, "minutes_scale": 0.1292, 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.131, "projected_substitutes": 4, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "saves": 0.3592, "goals_prevented": 0.0028, "rating": 7.0445, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.316, "accurate_pass": 3.2074, "total_long_balls": 1.7045, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6184, "touches": 5.5747, "clearances": 0.2077, "ball_recovery": 0.8687, "high_claims": 0.1788, "punches": 0.1068, "aerial_won": 0.0138, "sweeper_actions": 0.1325, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1325, "saves_inside_box": 0.2501, "possession_lost": 1.1468, "duels_won": 0.0276, "duels_lost": 0.01, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0136, "total_own_half_passes": 3.08, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8194, 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2132 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1117 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.042 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0201 } ], "others": -0.0458, "total": 0.3589, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.213241 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.111735 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.05705 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.041994 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.020094 } ], "others_margin": -0.045922 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.691100120544434, "model_output": 6.6911, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0362 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0332 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0133 } ], "others": -0.0455, "total": 6.6911, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.036189 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.033176 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.01601 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.013252 } ], "others_margin": -0.045515 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0076, quality 0.702)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.403, "tackles": 0.8695, "tackles_won": 0.5226, "clearances": 0.7048, "aerial_won": 0.2309, "total_shots": 0.3616, "rating": 6.6911, "minutes": 16.07, "total_pass": 6.0767, "accurate_pass": 5.1308, "duels_won": 1.3569, "total_long_balls": 0.3604, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0893, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5372, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0665, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5395, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0642, "crosses_total": 0.7398, "crosses_accurate": 0.1301, "touches": 12.5044, "possession_lost": 2.8529, "dispossessed": 0.4216, "duels_lost": 1.5512, "aerial_lost": 0.2252, "total_contest": 0.7775, "won_contest": 0.3181, "ball_recovery": 0.7082, "challenges_lost": 0.0649, "fouls": 0.3803, "fouls_drawn": 0.4569, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, 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"total_opp_half_passes": 3.5395, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0642, "crosses_total": 0.733, "crosses_accurate": 0.1301, "touches": 12.5044, "possession_lost": 2.8529, "dispossessed": 0.4216, "duels_lost": 1.5512, "aerial_lost": 0.2252, "total_contest": 0.7775, "won_contest": 0.3181, "ball_recovery": 0.7082, "challenges_lost": 0.0649, "fouls": 0.3812, "fouls_drawn": 0.4521, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0542, "expected_assists": 0.0142, "shots_on_target": 0.249, "big_chances_created": 0.0245, "xgot": 0.0515, "ball_carries": 3.3236, "total_progression": 20.9589, "progressive_carries": 0.466, "key_pass": 0.3306, "shots_off_target": 0.1099 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0106, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1786, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Aston Villa" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.7398, "after": 0.733 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.1 to 14.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.24)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3664, "tackles": 0.7911, "tackles_won": 0.4714, "clearances": 0.6412, "aerial_won": 0.2101, "total_shots": 0.3283, "rating": 6.6911, "minutes": 14.62, "total_pass": 5.5286, "accurate_pass": 4.6681, "duels_won": 1.2345, "total_long_balls": 0.3279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0812, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8801, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2203, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7878, "crosses_total": 0.6669, "crosses_accurate": 0.1184, "touches": 11.3766, "possession_lost": 2.5956, "dispossessed": 0.4216, "duels_lost": 1.4113, "aerial_lost": 0.2252, "total_contest": 0.7074, "won_contest": 0.2894, "ball_recovery": 0.6443, "challenges_lost": 0.0649, "fouls": 0.3468, "fouls_drawn": 0.4113, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0493, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "shots_on_target": 0.2265, "big_chances_created": 0.0223, "xgot": 0.0469, "ball_carries": 3.0238, "total_progression": 19.0686, "progressive_carries": 0.424, "key_pass": 0.3008, "shots_off_target": 0.1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.238, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.62 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.62, "projection_minutes": 16.07, "minutes_scale": 0.9098, "appearance_probability": 0.238 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3664, "tackles": 0.7911, "tackles_won": 0.4714, "clearances": 0.6412, "aerial_won": 0.2101, "total_shots": 0.3283, "rating": 6.6911, "minutes": 14.62, "total_pass": 5.5286, "accurate_pass": 4.6681, "duels_won": 1.2345, "total_long_balls": 0.3279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0812, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8801, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2203, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7878, "crosses_total": 0.6669, "crosses_accurate": 0.1184, "touches": 11.3766, "possession_lost": 2.5956, "dispossessed": 0.4216, "duels_lost": 1.4113, "aerial_lost": 0.2252, "total_contest": 0.7074, "won_contest": 0.2894, "ball_recovery": 0.6443, "challenges_lost": 0.0649, "fouls": 0.3468, "fouls_drawn": 0.4113, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0493, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "shots_on_target": 0.2265, "big_chances_created": 0.0223, "xgot": 0.0469, "ball_carries": 3.0238, "total_progression": 19.0686, "progressive_carries": 0.424, "key_pass": 0.3008, "shots_off_target": 0.1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.238, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.62 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3664, "tackles": 0.7911, "tackles_won": 0.4714, "clearances": 0.6412, "aerial_won": 0.2101, "total_shots": 0.3283, "rating": 6.6911, "minutes": 14.62, "total_pass": 5.5286, "accurate_pass": 4.6681, "duels_won": 1.2345, "total_long_balls": 0.3279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0812, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8801, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2203, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7878, "crosses_total": 0.6669, "crosses_accurate": 0.1184, "touches": 11.3766, "possession_lost": 2.5956, "dispossessed": 0.4216, "duels_lost": 1.4113, "aerial_lost": 0.2252, "total_contest": 0.7074, "won_contest": 0.2894, "ball_recovery": 0.6443, "challenges_lost": 0.0649, "fouls": 0.3468, "fouls_drawn": 0.4113, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0493, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "shots_on_target": 0.2265, "big_chances_created": 0.0223, "xgot": 0.0469, "ball_carries": 3.0238, "total_progression": 19.0686, "progressive_carries": 0.424, "key_pass": 0.3008, "shots_off_target": 0.1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.238, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.62, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.238, "projected_substitutes": 4, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3664, "tackles": 0.7911, "tackles_won": 0.4714, "clearances": 0.6412, "aerial_won": 0.2101, "total_shots": 0.3283, "rating": 6.6911, "minutes": 14.62, "total_pass": 5.5286, "accurate_pass": 4.6681, "duels_won": 1.2345, "total_long_balls": 0.3279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0812, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8801, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2203, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7878, "crosses_total": 0.6669, "crosses_accurate": 0.1184, "touches": 11.3766, "possession_lost": 2.5956, "dispossessed": 0.4216, "duels_lost": 1.4113, "aerial_lost": 0.2252, "total_contest": 0.7074, "won_contest": 0.2894, "ball_recovery": 0.6443, "challenges_lost": 0.0649, "fouls": 0.3468, "fouls_drawn": 0.4113, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0493, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "shots_on_target": 0.2265, "big_chances_created": 0.0223, "xgot": 0.0469, "ball_carries": 3.0238, "total_progression": 19.0686, "progressive_carries": 0.424, "key_pass": 0.3008, "shots_off_target": 0.1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.238, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.62, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2353, "fifa_rank": 871.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } } ] }, "Taylor Harwood-Bellis": { "player_id": 980637, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 188, "market_value": 22000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "expected_goals": 0.0034, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 1.1692, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.008, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0026, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 11, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.337, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.42, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3194, "combined_rank_score": 1153.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 2230.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Taylor Harwood-Bellis", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mërgim Vojvoda", "ranking": 3189 }, { "player_name": "Sorba Thomas", "ranking": 3190 }, { "player_name": "Samson Baidoo", "ranking": 3191 }, { "player_name": "Guéla Doué", "ranking": 3192 }, { "player_name": "Amar Dedić", "ranking": 3193 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Saïd El Mala", "ranking": 3195 }, { "player_name": "Fran García", "ranking": 3196 }, { "player_name": "Rômulo", "ranking": 3197 }, { "player_name": "David Zima", "ranking": 3198 }, { "player_name": "Juan Iglesias", "ranking": 3199 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.415030018156667, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.3370468190071212, "market_value_adjustment": 0.6503, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€22,000,000) scaled to 14.4 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position D (quality 0.65)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.9, "tackles": 2.8, "tackles_won": 1.7, "clearances": 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"importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0335 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0063 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0055 } ], "others": -0.0082, "total": 0.0429, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.420556 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.125431 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.105257 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.103356 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.101252 } ], "others_margin": -0.176207 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1251043826341629, "model_output": 0.1251, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1509 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0089 } ], "others": -0.0467, "total": 0.1251, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.626842 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.158222 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.129046 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.071521 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.05034 } ], "others_margin": -0.316731 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3811827600002289, "model_output": 0.3812, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4047 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0431 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0422 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.041 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0308 } ], "others": -0.1295, "total": 0.3812, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.404705 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.043134 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.042243 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.040998 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.030817 } ], "others_margin": -0.129382 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7489399909973145, "model_output": 6.7489, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0858 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.057 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0374, "total": 6.7489, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.085808 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.056995 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.023944 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.022605 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.012748 } ], "others_margin": -0.037318 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0140, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3506, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "assists": 0.0447, "assist_rate": 0.0447, "expected_goals": 0.0459, "goals": 0.0435, "goal_rate": 0.0435, "shots_on_target": 0.1269, "total_shots": 0.3866, "rating": 6.7489, "minutes": 19.34, "total_pass": 7.7631, "accurate_pass": 6.8719, "duels_won": 1.7098, "total_long_balls": 0.541, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2704, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2865, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2812, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5854, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.8343, "possession_lost": 1.3511, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6552, "aerial_won": 0.9318, "aerial_lost": 0.4253, "interceptions": 0.5004, "tackles_won": 0.3182, "tackles": 0.5481, "clearances": 1.0485, 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"total_own_half_passes": 4.2043, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9683, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3292, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.2895, "possession_lost": 1.6314, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7911, "aerial_won": 1.1251, "aerial_lost": 0.4253, "interceptions": 0.6042, "tackles_won": 0.3842, "tackles": 0.6618, "clearances": 1.266, "total_contest": 0.2776, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6042, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1864, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3136, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.35 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.35, "projection_minutes": 19.34, "minutes_scale": 1.2075, "appearance_probability": 0.561 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4233, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "assists": 0.054, "assist_rate": 0.054, "expected_goals": 0.0554, "goals": 0.0525, "goal_rate": 0.0525, "shots_on_target": 0.1532, "total_shots": 0.4668, "rating": 6.7489, "minutes": 23.35, "total_pass": 9.3737, "accurate_pass": 8.2976, "duels_won": 2.0645, "total_long_balls": 0.6532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3265, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2043, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9683, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3292, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.2895, "possession_lost": 1.6314, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7911, "aerial_won": 1.1251, "aerial_lost": 0.4253, "interceptions": 0.6042, "tackles_won": 0.3842, "tackles": 0.6618, "clearances": 1.266, "total_contest": 0.2776, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6042, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1864, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3136, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.35 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.2403, xG scale 1.1432, xA scale 1.1432, team xA 0.93 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4233, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "assist_rate": 0.054, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0633, "goal_rate": 0.0525, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1532, "total_shots": 0.4668, "rating": 6.7489, "minutes": 23.35, "total_pass": 9.3737, "accurate_pass": 8.2976, "duels_won": 2.0645, "total_long_balls": 0.6532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3265, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2043, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9683, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3292, "crosses_total": 0.0, 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0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1234 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0537 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0038 } ], "others": -0.0216, "total": 0.0884, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.479547 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.311497 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.169388 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.08543 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.034249 } ], "others_margin": -0.218978 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3215363323688507, "model_output": 0.3215, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2862 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1851 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0357 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0287 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0287 } ], "others": -0.1046, "total": 0.3215, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.286232 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.185136 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.035746 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.028738 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.028672 } ], "others_margin": -0.104405 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.728596210479736, "model_output": 6.7286, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0895 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0225 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0129 } ], "others": -0.0004, "total": 6.7286, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.089479 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.022471 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0068, quality 0.623)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4212, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "assists": 0.0439, "assist_rate": 0.0439, "expected_goals": 0.0212, "goals": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0311, "shots_on_target": 0.089, "total_shots": 0.3238, "rating": 6.7286, "minutes": 15.48, "total_pass": 14.1298, "accurate_pass": 12.9255, "duels_won": 1.2663, "total_long_balls": 0.9703, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6416, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4952, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1911, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6346, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7344, "crosses_total": 0.497, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.0901, "possession_lost": 2.1255, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.496, "aerial_won": 0.4606, "aerial_lost": 0.7391, "interceptions": 0.5533, "tackles_won": 0.167, "tackles": 0.3561, "clearances": 0.3903, 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"description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6179, "expected_assists": 0.0472, "assists": 0.0644, "assist_rate": 0.0644, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goals": 0.0456, "goal_rate": 0.0456, "shots_on_target": 0.1306, "total_shots": 0.475, "rating": 6.7286, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 20.727, "accurate_pass": 18.9604, "duels_won": 1.8575, "total_long_balls": 1.4233, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9412, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0609, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6148, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6661, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3456, "crosses_total": 0.729, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.5363, "possession_lost": 3.1179, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1945, "aerial_won": 0.6757, "aerial_lost": 0.7391, "interceptions": 0.8116, "tackles_won": 0.245, "tackles": 0.5224, "clearances": 0.5725, "total_contest": 0.9811, "won_contest": 0.4514, "challenges_lost": 0.1166, "fouls": 0.4094, "fouls_drawn": 0.3854, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2083, "big_chances_missed": 0.1279, "xgot": 0.0758, "ball_carries": 6.5834, "total_progression": 28.6268, "progressive_carries": 0.3565, "shots_off_target": 0.3444, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.2403, xG scale 1.1432, xA scale 1.1432, team xA 0.93 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6179, "expected_assists": 0.054, "assist_rate": 0.0644, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "goal_rate": 0.0456, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1306, "total_shots": 0.475, "rating": 6.7286, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 20.727, "accurate_pass": 18.9604, "duels_won": 1.8575, "total_long_balls": 1.4233, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9412, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0609, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6148, 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"margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.532962 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.112881 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.044117 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.035029 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.028895 } ], "others_margin": -0.119394 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.013756295666098595, "model_output": 0.0138, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0209 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.0101, "total": 0.0138, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.393081 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.210851 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.201785 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.106955 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.080091 } ], "others_margin": -0.549041 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.21504057943820953, "model_output": 0.215, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2755 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0394 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.03 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0206 } ], "others": -0.0684, "total": 0.215, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.525522 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.104151 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.087387 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.079512 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.070237 } ], "others_margin": -0.27556 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.629504203796387, "model_output": 6.6295, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.054 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0149 } ], "others": -0.0421, "total": 6.6295, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.053983 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.023357 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.023206 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021922 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014857 } ], "others_margin": -0.042046 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0180, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1345, "goals": 0.1839, "goal_rate": 0.1839, "shots_on_target": 0.3217, "total_shots": 0.6757, "expected_assists": 0.014, "key_pass": 0.2189, "rating": 6.6295, "minutes": 20.28, "total_pass": 2.2178, "accurate_pass": 1.7362, "duels_won": 0.7317, "total_long_balls": 0.1183, "accurate_long_balls": 0.017, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.7967, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.36, "crosses_total": 0.4556, "crosses_accurate": 0.0528, "touches": 6.6882, "possession_lost": 2.1766, "dispossessed": 0.426, "duels_lost": 1.2783, "aerial_lost": 0.3368, "total_contest": 0.7022, "won_contest": 0.2963, "ball_recovery": 0.2088, "challenges_lost": 0.0234, "fouls": 0.0861, "fouls_drawn": 0.3031, "assists": 0.0528, "assist_rate": 0.0528, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.056, "tackles": 0.1088, "clearances": 0.1468, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3894, "xgot": 0.098, "offsides": 0.02, "ball_carries": 1.6888, "total_progression": 3.8417, "progressive_carries": 0.1943, "shots_off_target": 0.354 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.018, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 21, "history_shrink": 0.1923, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.3 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1777, "goals": 0.243, "goal_rate": 0.243, "shots_on_target": 0.425, "total_shots": 0.8928, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "key_pass": 0.2892, "rating": 6.6295, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 2.9302, "accurate_pass": 2.2939, "duels_won": 0.9667, "total_long_balls": 0.1563, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0225, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3739, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7969, "crosses_total": 0.602, "crosses_accurate": 0.0698, "touches": 8.8367, "possession_lost": 2.8758, "dispossessed": 0.426, "duels_lost": 1.6889, "aerial_lost": 0.3368, "total_contest": 0.9278, "won_contest": 0.3915, "ball_recovery": 0.2759, "challenges_lost": 0.0234, "fouls": 0.1138, "fouls_drawn": 0.4005, "assists": 0.0698, "assist_rate": 0.0698, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.074, "tackles": 0.1438, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5145, "xgot": 0.1295, "offsides": 0.02, "ball_carries": 2.2313, "total_progression": 5.0758, "progressive_carries": 0.2567, "shots_off_target": 0.4677, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.79, "projection_minutes": 20.28, "minutes_scale": 1.3212, "appearance_probability": 0.627 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1777, "goals": 0.243, "goal_rate": 0.243, "shots_on_target": 0.425, "total_shots": 0.8928, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "key_pass": 0.2892, "rating": 6.6295, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 2.9302, "accurate_pass": 2.2939, "duels_won": 0.9667, "total_long_balls": 0.1563, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0225, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3739, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7969, "crosses_total": 0.602, "crosses_accurate": 0.0698, "touches": 8.8367, "possession_lost": 2.8758, "dispossessed": 0.426, "duels_lost": 1.6889, "aerial_lost": 0.3368, "total_contest": 0.9278, "won_contest": 0.3915, "ball_recovery": 0.2759, "challenges_lost": 0.0234, "fouls": 0.1138, "fouls_drawn": 0.4005, "assists": 0.0698, "assist_rate": 0.0698, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.074, "tackles": 0.1438, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5145, "xgot": 0.1295, "offsides": 0.02, "ball_carries": 2.2313, "total_progression": 5.0758, "progressive_carries": 0.2567, "shots_off_target": 0.4677, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.2403, xG scale 1.1432, xA scale 1.1432, team xA 0.93 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2032, "goal_rate": 0.243, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.425, "total_shots": 0.8928, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "key_pass": 0.2892, "rating": 6.6295, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 2.9302, "accurate_pass": 2.2939, "duels_won": 0.9667, "total_long_balls": 0.1563, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0225, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3739, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7969, "crosses_total": 0.602, "crosses_accurate": 0.0698, "touches": 8.8367, "possession_lost": 2.8758, "dispossessed": 0.426, "duels_lost": 1.6889, "aerial_lost": 0.3368, "total_contest": 0.9278, "won_contest": 0.3915, "ball_recovery": 0.2759, "challenges_lost": 0.0234, "fouls": 0.1138, "fouls_drawn": 0.4005, "assist_rate": 0.0698, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.074, "tackles": 0.1438, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5145, "xgot": 0.1481, "offsides": 0.02, "ball_carries": 2.2313, "total_progression": 5.0758, "progressive_carries": 0.2567, "shots_off_target": 0.4677, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.418, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2403, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8118, "team_expected_assists": 0.9281, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6545, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1432, "xa_scale": 1.1432, "opponent_lambda": 1.499, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.627 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1777, "after": 0.2032 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2032, "goal_rate": 0.243, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.425, "total_shots": 0.8928, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "key_pass": 0.2892, "rating": 6.6295, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 2.9302, "accurate_pass": 2.2939, "duels_won": 0.9667, "total_long_balls": 0.1563, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0225, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3739, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7969, "crosses_total": 0.602, "crosses_accurate": 0.0698, "touches": 8.8367, "possession_lost": 2.8758, "dispossessed": 0.426, "duels_lost": 1.6889, "aerial_lost": 0.3368, "total_contest": 0.9278, "won_contest": 0.3915, "ball_recovery": 0.2759, "challenges_lost": 0.0234, "fouls": 0.1138, "fouls_drawn": 0.4005, "assist_rate": 0.0698, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.074, "tackles": 0.1438, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5145, "xgot": 0.1481, "offsides": 0.02, "ball_carries": 2.2313, "total_progression": 5.0758, "progressive_carries": 0.2567, "shots_off_target": 0.4677, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 309, "fifa_rank": 299.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2032, "goal_rate": 0.243, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.425, "total_shots": 0.8928, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "key_pass": 0.2892, "rating": 6.6295, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 2.9302, "accurate_pass": 2.2939, "duels_won": 0.9667, "total_long_balls": 0.1563, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0225, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3739, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7969, "crosses_total": 0.602, "crosses_accurate": 0.0698, 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{ "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2756 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0325 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0294 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0152 } ], "others": -0.0378, "total": 0.2638, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.525855 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.085177 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.083746 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.060226 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.04907 } ], "others_margin": -0.134118 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.656219482421875, "model_output": 6.6562, "scale": "0-10", 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-0.020326 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0439, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0657, "goals": 0.0852, "goal_rate": 0.0852, "shots_on_target": 0.2967, "total_shots": 0.6673, "expected_assists": 0.0397, "key_pass": 0.2753, "rating": 6.6562, "minutes": 20.26, "total_pass": 4.7963, "accurate_pass": 3.8371, "duels_won": 0.4797, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8778, "crosses_total": 0.4797, "crosses_accurate": 0.4797, "touches": 9.3669, "possession_lost": 3.047, "dispossessed": 1.1286, "duels_lost": 3.2164, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4797, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4797, "challenges_lost": 0.5642, "fouls": 1.0439, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4797, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.049, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3166, "total_progression": 22.3803, "progressive_carries": 0.9592, "shots_off_target": 0.3706 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0439, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.3 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goals": 0.1109, "goal_rate": 0.1109, "shots_on_target": 0.3862, "total_shots": 0.8686, "expected_assists": 0.0517, "key_pass": 0.3583, "rating": 6.6562, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 6.2431, "accurate_pass": 4.9946, "duels_won": 0.6244, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7459, "crosses_total": 0.6244, "crosses_accurate": 0.6244, "touches": 12.1925, "possession_lost": 3.9662, "dispossessed": 1.1286, "duels_lost": 4.1867, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6244, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6244, "challenges_lost": 0.5642, "fouls": 1.3588, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6244, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0638, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6187, "total_progression": 29.1315, "progressive_carries": 1.2486, "shots_off_target": 0.4824, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.37, "projection_minutes": 20.26, "minutes_scale": 1.3017, "appearance_probability": 0.608 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goals": 0.1109, "goal_rate": 0.1109, "shots_on_target": 0.3862, "total_shots": 0.8686, "expected_assists": 0.0517, "key_pass": 0.3583, "rating": 6.6562, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 6.2431, "accurate_pass": 4.9946, "duels_won": 0.6244, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7459, "crosses_total": 0.6244, "crosses_accurate": 0.6244, "touches": 12.1925, "possession_lost": 3.9662, "dispossessed": 1.1286, "duels_lost": 4.1867, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6244, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6244, "challenges_lost": 0.5642, "fouls": 1.3588, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6244, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0638, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6187, "total_progression": 29.1315, "progressive_carries": 1.2486, "shots_off_target": 0.4824, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.2403, xG scale 1.1432, xA scale 1.1432, team xA 0.93 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0977, "goal_rate": 0.1109, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3862, "total_shots": 0.8686, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.3583, "rating": 6.6562, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 6.2431, "accurate_pass": 4.9946, "duels_won": 0.6244, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7459, "crosses_total": 0.6244, "crosses_accurate": 0.6244, "touches": 12.1925, "possession_lost": 3.9662, "dispossessed": 1.1286, "duels_lost": 4.1867, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6244, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6244, "challenges_lost": 0.5642, "fouls": 1.3588, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6244, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0729, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6187, "total_progression": 29.1315, "progressive_carries": 1.2486, "shots_off_target": 0.4824, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1875, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.418, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2403, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8118, "team_expected_assists": 0.9281, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6545, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1432, "xa_scale": 1.1432, "opponent_lambda": 1.499, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.608 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0855, "after": 0.0977 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0517, "after": 0.0591 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0977, "goal_rate": 0.1109, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3862, "total_shots": 0.8686, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.3583, "rating": 6.6562, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 6.2431, "accurate_pass": 4.9946, "duels_won": 0.6244, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7459, "crosses_total": 0.6244, "crosses_accurate": 0.6244, "touches": 12.1925, "possession_lost": 3.9662, "dispossessed": 1.1286, "duels_lost": 4.1867, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6244, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6244, "challenges_lost": 0.5642, "fouls": 1.3588, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6244, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0729, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6187, "total_progression": 29.1315, "progressive_carries": 1.2486, "shots_off_target": 0.4824, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1875, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3297, "fifa_rank": 1817.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0977, "goal_rate": 0.1109, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3862, "total_shots": 0.8686, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.3583, "rating": 6.6562, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 6.2431, "accurate_pass": 4.9946, "duels_won": 0.6244, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7459, "crosses_total": 0.6244, "crosses_accurate": 0.6244, "touches": 12.1925, "possession_lost": 3.9662, "dispossessed": 1.1286, "duels_lost": 4.1867, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6244, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6244, "challenges_lost": 0.5642, "fouls": 1.3588, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6244, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0729, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6187, "total_progression": 29.1315, "progressive_carries": 1.2486, "shots_off_target": 0.4824, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0566, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1875, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0566, "scorer_weight": 0.0705, "squad_weight_total": 1.5657, "weight_share": 0.0451, "finishing_factor": 1.1875, "appearance_weight": 0.608, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nicolas Jackson", "weight": 0.3652, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3652, "runner_up": "Johan Manzambi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3231 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0977, "goal_rate": 0.1109, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3862, "total_shots": 0.8686, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.3583, "rating": 6.6562, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 6.2431, "accurate_pass": 4.9946, "duels_won": 0.6244, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7459, "crosses_total": 0.6244, "crosses_accurate": 0.6244, "touches": 12.1925, "possession_lost": 3.9662, "dispossessed": 1.1286, "duels_lost": 4.1867, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6244, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6244, "challenges_lost": 0.5642, "fouls": 1.3588, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6244, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0729, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6187, "total_progression": 29.1315, "progressive_carries": 1.2486, "shots_off_target": 0.4824, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0566, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0349, "finishing_factor": 1.1875, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0349, "provider_weight": 0.0287, "squad_weight_total": 0.934, "weight_share": 0.0308, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.608, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Matteo Ruggeri", "weight": 0.1855, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1855, "runner_up": "Johan Manzambi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.141, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Nicolas Jackson" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Donyell Malen": { "player_id": 803039, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 176, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2032, "goal_rate": 0.243, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6295, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 2.8758, "dispossessed": 0.426, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0698, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.1481, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1153, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0132, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14025058, "match_date": "2026-01-07", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025276, "match_date": "2026-01-03", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025254, "match_date": "2025-12-30", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.865, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025240, "match_date": "2025-12-27", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025216, "match_date": "2025-12-21", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025210, "match_date": "2025-12-14", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0543, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025156, "match_date": "2025-12-06", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1931, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025129, "match_date": "2025-12-03", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", 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"xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.01, "total": 0.0816, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.519853 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.191985 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.120237 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.11514 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.091758 } ], "others_margin": -0.116501 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2842433452606201, "model_output": 0.2842, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1978 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", 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}, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1273 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0485 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0301 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.029 } ], "others": -0.076, "total": 0.6392, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.486618 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.127275 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.048469 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.03009 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.028981 } ], "others_margin": -0.07603 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03803472965955734, "model_output": 0.038, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0041 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0023 } ], "others": -0.0033, "total": 0.038, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.292247 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.107816 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.090197 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.078843 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.055215 } ], "others_margin": -0.080876 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.26375022530555725, "model_output": 0.2638, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2756 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0325 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0294 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0152 } ], "others": -0.0378, "total": 0.2638, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.525855 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.085177 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.083746 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.060226 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.04907 } ], "others_margin": -0.134118 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.656219482421875, "model_output": 6.6562, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0613 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0204, "total": 6.6562, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061303 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.019048 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018805 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.014044 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010512 } ], "others_margin": -0.020326 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0439, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0657, "goals": 0.0852, "goal_rate": 0.0852, "shots_on_target": 0.2967, "total_shots": 0.6673, "expected_assists": 0.0397, "key_pass": 0.2753, "rating": 6.6562, "minutes": 20.26, "total_pass": 4.7963, "accurate_pass": 3.8371, "duels_won": 0.4797, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8778, "crosses_total": 0.4797, "crosses_accurate": 0.4797, "touches": 9.3669, "possession_lost": 3.047, "dispossessed": 1.1286, "duels_lost": 3.2164, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4797, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4797, "challenges_lost": 0.5642, "fouls": 1.0439, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4797, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.049, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3166, "total_progression": 22.3803, "progressive_carries": 0.9592, "shots_off_target": 0.3706 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0439, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.3 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goals": 0.1109, "goal_rate": 0.1109, "shots_on_target": 0.3862, "total_shots": 0.8686, "expected_assists": 0.0517, "key_pass": 0.3583, "rating": 6.6562, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 6.2431, "accurate_pass": 4.9946, "duels_won": 0.6244, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7459, "crosses_total": 0.6244, "crosses_accurate": 0.6244, "touches": 12.1925, "possession_lost": 3.9662, "dispossessed": 1.1286, "duels_lost": 4.1867, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6244, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6244, "challenges_lost": 0.5642, "fouls": 1.3588, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6244, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0638, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6187, "total_progression": 29.1315, "progressive_carries": 1.2486, "shots_off_target": 0.4824, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.37, "projection_minutes": 20.26, "minutes_scale": 1.3017, "appearance_probability": 0.608 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goals": 0.1109, "goal_rate": 0.1109, "shots_on_target": 0.3862, "total_shots": 0.8686, "expected_assists": 0.0517, "key_pass": 0.3583, "rating": 6.6562, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 6.2431, "accurate_pass": 4.9946, "duels_won": 0.6244, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7459, "crosses_total": 0.6244, "crosses_accurate": 0.6244, "touches": 12.1925, "possession_lost": 3.9662, "dispossessed": 1.1286, "duels_lost": 4.1867, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6244, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6244, "challenges_lost": 0.5642, "fouls": 1.3588, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6244, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0638, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6187, "total_progression": 29.1315, "progressive_carries": 1.2486, "shots_off_target": 0.4824, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.2403, xG scale 1.1432, xA scale 1.1432, team xA 0.93 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0977, "goal_rate": 0.1109, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3862, "total_shots": 0.8686, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.3583, "rating": 6.6562, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 6.2431, "accurate_pass": 4.9946, "duels_won": 0.6244, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7459, "crosses_total": 0.6244, "crosses_accurate": 0.6244, "touches": 12.1925, "possession_lost": 3.9662, "dispossessed": 1.1286, "duels_lost": 4.1867, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6244, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6244, "challenges_lost": 0.5642, "fouls": 1.3588, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6244, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0729, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6187, "total_progression": 29.1315, "progressive_carries": 1.2486, "shots_off_target": 0.4824, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1875, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.418, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2403, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8118, "team_expected_assists": 0.9281, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6545, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1432, "xa_scale": 1.1432, "opponent_lambda": 1.499, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.608 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0855, "after": 0.0977 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0517, "after": 0.0591 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0977, "goal_rate": 0.1109, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3862, "total_shots": 0.8686, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.3583, "rating": 6.6562, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 6.2431, "accurate_pass": 4.9946, "duels_won": 0.6244, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7459, "crosses_total": 0.6244, "crosses_accurate": 0.6244, "touches": 12.1925, "possession_lost": 3.9662, "dispossessed": 1.1286, "duels_lost": 4.1867, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6244, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6244, "challenges_lost": 0.5642, "fouls": 1.3588, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6244, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0729, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6187, "total_progression": 29.1315, "progressive_carries": 1.2486, "shots_off_target": 0.4824, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1875, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3297, "fifa_rank": 1817.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0977, "goal_rate": 0.1109, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3862, "total_shots": 0.8686, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.3583, "rating": 6.6562, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 6.2431, "accurate_pass": 4.9946, "duels_won": 0.6244, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7459, "crosses_total": 0.6244, "crosses_accurate": 0.6244, "touches": 12.1925, 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"name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0406 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0082 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0051 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0184, "total": 0.0452, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.561585 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.141002 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.138002 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.090576 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.073568 } ], "others_margin": -0.341241 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.04293972998857498, "model_output": 0.0429, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0335 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0063 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0055 } ], "others": -0.0082, "total": 0.0429, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.420556 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.125431 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.105257 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.103356 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.101252 } ], "others_margin": -0.176207 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1251043826341629, "model_output": 0.1251, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1509 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0089 } ], "others": -0.0467, "total": 0.1251, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.626842 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.158222 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.129046 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.071521 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.05034 } ], "others_margin": -0.316731 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3811827600002289, "model_output": 0.3812, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4047 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0431 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0422 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.041 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0308 } ], "others": -0.1295, "total": 0.3812, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.404705 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.043134 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.042243 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.040998 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.030817 } ], "others_margin": -0.129382 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7489399909973145, "model_output": 6.7489, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0858 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.057 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0374, "total": 6.7489, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.085808 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.056995 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.023944 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.022605 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.012748 } ], "others_margin": -0.037318 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0140, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3506, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "assists": 0.0447, "assist_rate": 0.0447, "expected_goals": 0.0459, "goals": 0.0435, "goal_rate": 0.0435, "shots_on_target": 0.1269, "total_shots": 0.3866, "rating": 6.7489, "minutes": 19.34, "total_pass": 7.7631, "accurate_pass": 6.8719, "duels_won": 1.7098, "total_long_balls": 0.541, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2704, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2865, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2812, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5854, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.8343, "possession_lost": 1.3511, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6552, "aerial_won": 0.9318, "aerial_lost": 0.4253, "interceptions": 0.5004, "tackles_won": 0.3182, "tackles": 0.5481, "clearances": 1.0485, "total_contest": 0.2299, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5004, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6389, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2597 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.014, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.3 to 23.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4233, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "assists": 0.054, "assist_rate": 0.054, "expected_goals": 0.0554, "goals": 0.0525, "goal_rate": 0.0525, "shots_on_target": 0.1532, "total_shots": 0.4668, "rating": 6.7489, "minutes": 23.35, "total_pass": 9.3737, "accurate_pass": 8.2976, "duels_won": 2.0645, "total_long_balls": 0.6532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3265, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2043, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9683, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3292, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.2895, "possession_lost": 1.6314, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7911, "aerial_won": 1.1251, "aerial_lost": 0.4253, "interceptions": 0.6042, "tackles_won": 0.3842, "tackles": 0.6618, "clearances": 1.266, "total_contest": 0.2776, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6042, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1864, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3136, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.35 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.35, "projection_minutes": 19.34, "minutes_scale": 1.2075, "appearance_probability": 0.561 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4233, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "assists": 0.054, "assist_rate": 0.054, "expected_goals": 0.0554, "goals": 0.0525, "goal_rate": 0.0525, "shots_on_target": 0.1532, "total_shots": 0.4668, "rating": 6.7489, "minutes": 23.35, "total_pass": 9.3737, "accurate_pass": 8.2976, "duels_won": 2.0645, "total_long_balls": 0.6532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3265, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2043, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9683, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3292, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.2895, "possession_lost": 1.6314, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7911, "aerial_won": 1.1251, "aerial_lost": 0.4253, "interceptions": 0.6042, "tackles_won": 0.3842, "tackles": 0.6618, "clearances": 1.266, "total_contest": 0.2776, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6042, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1864, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3136, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.35 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.2403, xG scale 1.1432, xA scale 1.1432, team xA 0.93 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4233, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "assist_rate": 0.054, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0633, "goal_rate": 0.0525, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1532, "total_shots": 0.4668, "rating": 6.7489, "minutes": 23.35, "total_pass": 9.3737, "accurate_pass": 8.2976, "duels_won": 2.0645, "total_long_balls": 0.6532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3265, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2043, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9683, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3292, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.2895, "possession_lost": 1.6314, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7911, "aerial_won": 1.1251, "aerial_lost": 0.4253, "interceptions": 0.6042, "tackles_won": 0.3842, "tackles": 0.6618, "clearances": 1.266, "total_contest": 0.2776, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6042, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1864, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3136, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.35, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9725, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.418, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2403, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8118, "team_expected_assists": 0.9281, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6545, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1432, "xa_scale": 1.1432, "opponent_lambda": 1.499, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.561 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0554, "after": 0.0633 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4233, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "assist_rate": 0.054, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0633, "goal_rate": 0.0525, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1532, "total_shots": 0.4668, "rating": 6.7489, "minutes": 23.35, "total_pass": 9.3737, "accurate_pass": 8.2976, "duels_won": 2.0645, "total_long_balls": 0.6532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3265, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2043, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9683, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3292, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.2895, "possession_lost": 1.6314, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7911, "aerial_won": 1.1251, "aerial_lost": 0.4253, "interceptions": 0.6042, "tackles_won": 0.3842, "tackles": 0.6618, "clearances": 1.266, "total_contest": 0.2776, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6042, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1864, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3136, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.35, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9725, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 877, "fifa_rank": 520.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4233, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "assist_rate": 0.054, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0633, "goal_rate": 0.0525, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1532, "total_shots": 0.4668, "rating": 6.7489, "minutes": 23.35, "total_pass": 9.3737, "accurate_pass": 8.2976, "duels_won": 2.0645, "total_long_balls": 0.6532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3265, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2043, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9683, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3292, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.2895, "possession_lost": 1.6314, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7911, "aerial_won": 1.1251, "aerial_lost": 0.4253, "interceptions": 0.6042, "tackles_won": 0.3842, "tackles": 0.6618, "clearances": 1.266, "total_contest": 0.2776, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6042, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1864, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3136, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.35, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0344, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9725, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0344, "scorer_weight": 0.0345, "squad_weight_total": 1.5657, "weight_share": 0.0221, "finishing_factor": 0.9725, "appearance_weight": 0.561, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nicolas Jackson", "weight": 0.3652, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3652, "runner_up": "Johan Manzambi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3231 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4233, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.004 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.003 } ], "others": -0.0117, "total": 0.0309, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.438752 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.217222 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.195518 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.091332 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.068455 } ], "others_margin": -0.321035 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.08837839961051941, "model_output": 0.0884, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1234 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0537 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0038 } ], "others": -0.0216, "total": 0.0884, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.479547 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.311497 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.169388 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.08543 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.034249 } ], "others_margin": -0.218978 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3215363323688507, "model_output": 0.3215, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2862 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1851 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0357 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0287 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0287 } ], "others": -0.1046, "total": 0.3215, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.286232 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.185136 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.035746 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.028738 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.028672 } ], "others_margin": -0.104405 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.728596210479736, "model_output": 6.7286, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0895 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0225 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0129 } ], "others": -0.0004, "total": 6.7286, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.089479 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.022471 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.020266 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019733 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012878 } ], "others_margin": -0.00039 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0068, quality 0.623)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4212, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "assists": 0.0439, "assist_rate": 0.0439, "expected_goals": 0.0212, "goals": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0311, "shots_on_target": 0.089, "total_shots": 0.3238, "rating": 6.7286, "minutes": 15.48, "total_pass": 14.1298, "accurate_pass": 12.9255, "duels_won": 1.2663, "total_long_balls": 0.9703, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6416, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4952, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.1911, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6346, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7344, "crosses_total": 0.497, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.0901, "possession_lost": 2.1255, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.496, "aerial_won": 0.4606, "aerial_lost": 0.7391, "interceptions": 0.5533, "tackles_won": 0.167, "tackles": 0.3561, "clearances": 0.3903, "total_contest": 0.6688, "won_contest": 0.3077, "challenges_lost": 0.1166, "fouls": 0.2791, "fouls_drawn": 0.2627, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.142, "big_chances_missed": 0.0872, "xgot": 0.0517, "ball_carries": 4.488, "total_progression": 19.5152, "progressive_carries": 0.243, "shots_off_target": 0.2348 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19200000, "quality_factor": 0.6231, "boost_factor": 1.0068, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 21, "history_shrink": 0.1923, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.5 to 22.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6179, "expected_assists": 0.0472, "assists": 0.0644, "assist_rate": 0.0644, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goals": 0.0456, "goal_rate": 0.0456, "shots_on_target": 0.1306, "total_shots": 0.475, "rating": 6.7286, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 20.727, "accurate_pass": 18.9604, "duels_won": 1.8575, "total_long_balls": 1.4233, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9412, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0609, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6148, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6661, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3456, "crosses_total": 0.729, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.5363, "possession_lost": 3.1179, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1945, "aerial_won": 0.6757, "aerial_lost": 0.7391, "interceptions": 0.8116, "tackles_won": 0.245, "tackles": 0.5224, "clearances": 0.5725, "total_contest": 0.9811, "won_contest": 0.4514, "challenges_lost": 0.1166, "fouls": 0.4094, "fouls_drawn": 0.3854, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2083, "big_chances_missed": 0.1279, "xgot": 0.0758, "ball_carries": 6.5834, "total_progression": 28.6268, "progressive_carries": 0.3565, "shots_off_target": 0.3444, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.71, "projection_minutes": 15.48, "minutes_scale": 1.4669, "appearance_probability": 0.532 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6179, "expected_assists": 0.0472, "assists": 0.0644, "assist_rate": 0.0644, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goals": 0.0456, "goal_rate": 0.0456, "shots_on_target": 0.1306, "total_shots": 0.475, "rating": 6.7286, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 20.727, "accurate_pass": 18.9604, "duels_won": 1.8575, "total_long_balls": 1.4233, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9412, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0609, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6148, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6661, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3456, "crosses_total": 0.729, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.5363, "possession_lost": 3.1179, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1945, "aerial_won": 0.6757, "aerial_lost": 0.7391, "interceptions": 0.8116, "tackles_won": 0.245, "tackles": 0.5224, "clearances": 0.5725, "total_contest": 0.9811, "won_contest": 0.4514, "challenges_lost": 0.1166, "fouls": 0.4094, "fouls_drawn": 0.3854, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2083, "big_chances_missed": 0.1279, "xgot": 0.0758, "ball_carries": 6.5834, "total_progression": 28.6268, "progressive_carries": 0.3565, "shots_off_target": 0.3444, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.2403, xG scale 1.1432, xA scale 1.1432, team xA 0.93 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6179, "expected_assists": 0.054, "assist_rate": 0.0644, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "goal_rate": 0.0456, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1306, "total_shots": 0.475, "rating": 6.7286, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 20.727, "accurate_pass": 18.9604, "duels_won": 1.8575, "total_long_balls": 1.4233, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9412, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0609, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6148, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6661, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3456, "crosses_total": 0.729, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.5363, "possession_lost": 3.1179, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1945, "aerial_won": 0.6757, "aerial_lost": 0.7391, "interceptions": 0.8116, "tackles_won": 0.245, "tackles": 0.5224, "clearances": 0.5725, "total_contest": 0.9811, "won_contest": 0.4514, "challenges_lost": 0.1166, "fouls": 0.4094, "fouls_drawn": 0.3854, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2083, "big_chances_missed": 0.1279, "xgot": 0.0867, "ball_carries": 6.5834, "total_progression": 28.6268, "progressive_carries": 0.3565, "shots_off_target": 0.3444, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1788, "creation_factor": 1.177 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.418, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2403, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8118, "team_expected_assists": 0.9281, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6545, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1432, "xa_scale": 1.1432, "opponent_lambda": 1.499, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.532 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0472, "after": 0.054 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6179, "expected_assists": 0.054, "assist_rate": 0.0644, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "goal_rate": 0.0456, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1306, "total_shots": 0.475, "rating": 6.7286, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 20.727, "accurate_pass": 18.9604, "duels_won": 1.8575, "total_long_balls": 1.4233, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9412, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0609, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6148, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6661, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3456, "crosses_total": 0.729, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.5363, "possession_lost": 3.1179, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1945, "aerial_won": 0.6757, "aerial_lost": 0.7391, "interceptions": 0.8116, "tackles_won": 0.245, "tackles": 0.5224, "clearances": 0.5725, "total_contest": 0.9811, "won_contest": 0.4514, "challenges_lost": 0.1166, "fouls": 0.4094, "fouls_drawn": 0.3854, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2083, "big_chances_missed": 0.1279, "xgot": 0.0867, "ball_carries": 6.5834, "total_progression": 28.6268, "progressive_carries": 0.3565, "shots_off_target": 0.3444, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1788, "creation_factor": 1.177, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2377, "fifa_rank": 1192.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6179, "expected_assists": 0.054, "assist_rate": 0.0644, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "goal_rate": 0.0456, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1306, "total_shots": 0.475, "rating": 6.7286, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 20.727, "accurate_pass": 18.9604, "duels_won": 1.8575, "total_long_balls": 1.4233, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9412, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0609, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6148, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6661, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3456, "crosses_total": 0.729, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.5363, "possession_lost": 3.1179, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1945, "aerial_won": 0.6757, "aerial_lost": 0.7391, "interceptions": 0.8116, "tackles_won": 0.245, "tackles": 0.5224, "clearances": 0.5725, "total_contest": 0.9811, "won_contest": 0.4514, "challenges_lost": 0.1166, "fouls": 0.4094, "fouls_drawn": 0.3854, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2083, "big_chances_missed": 0.1279, "xgot": 0.0867, "ball_carries": 6.5834, "total_progression": 28.6268, "progressive_carries": 0.3565, "shots_off_target": 0.3444, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.665, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0186, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1788, "creation_factor": 1.177, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0186, "scorer_weight": 0.0223, "squad_weight_total": 1.5657, "weight_share": 0.0143, "finishing_factor": 1.1788, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nicolas Jackson", "weight": 0.3652, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3652, "runner_up": "Johan Manzambi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3231 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6179, "expected_assists": 0.054, "assist_rate": 0.0644, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "goal_rate": 0.0456, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1306, "total_shots": 0.475, "rating": 6.7286, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 20.727, "accurate_pass": 18.9604, "duels_won": 1.8575, "total_long_balls": 1.4233, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9412, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0609, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6148, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6661, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3456, "crosses_total": 0.729, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.5363, "possession_lost": 3.1179, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1945, "aerial_won": 0.6757, "aerial_lost": 0.7391, "interceptions": 0.8116, "tackles_won": 0.245, "tackles": 0.5224, "clearances": 0.5725, "total_contest": 0.9811, "won_contest": 0.4514, "challenges_lost": 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"name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0053, "total": 0.0494, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.219496 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.118543 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.117085 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.087015 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.058143 } ], "others_margin": -0.101346 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7289659380912781, "model_output": 0.729, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1361 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0523 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0437 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0313 } ], "others": -0.1128, "total": 0.729, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.183883 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.06257 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.049415 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.037088 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.036488 } ], "others_margin": -0.143859 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.706643104553223, "model_output": 6.7066, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0418 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0331 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.033 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0273 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0215, "total": 6.7066, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.041825 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.033144 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.033015 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.027254 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.017481 } ], "others_margin": -0.021412 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 42, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0113, quality 0.868)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3968, "goals": 0.3295, "goal_rate": 0.3295, "shots_on_target": 0.8283, "total_shots": 2.236, "expected_assists": 0.05, "key_pass": 0.7372, "rating": 6.7066, "minutes": 88.96, "total_pass": 19.4978, "accurate_pass": 14.3655, "duels_won": 4.9843, "total_long_balls": 1.0133, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4722, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3341, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3615, "crosses_total": 0.6467, "crosses_accurate": 0.087, "touches": 35.0134, "possession_lost": 11.2253, "dispossessed": 1.0281, "duels_lost": 9.1084, "aerial_lost": 5.1471, "total_contest": 1.2265, "won_contest": 0.5314, "ball_recovery": 2.2524, "challenges_lost": 0.4035, "fouls": 1.9364, "fouls_drawn": 0.5779, "assists": 0.0026, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.5799, "tackles": 0.933, "clearances": 1.0533, "blocks": 0.4164, "big_chances_created": 0.0712, "big_chances_missed": 0.5996, "xgot": 0.3649, "offsides": 0.2183, "ball_carries": 6.8605, "total_progression": 1.4473, "progressive_carries": 0.6259, "shots_off_target": 1.4076 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 68000000, "quality_factor": 0.8677, "boost_factor": 1.0113, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0086)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3968, "goals": 0.3267, "goal_rate": 0.3267, "shots_on_target": 0.8301, "total_shots": 2.2479, "expected_assists": 0.05, "key_pass": 0.7372, "rating": 6.7066, "minutes": 88.96, "total_pass": 19.4978, "accurate_pass": 14.3655, "duels_won": 4.9843, "total_long_balls": 1.0133, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4722, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3341, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3615, 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2.2479 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.5779, "after": 0.5729 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.5799, "after": 0.5749 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3968, "goals": 0.3267, "goal_rate": 0.3267, "shots_on_target": 0.8301, "total_shots": 2.2479, "expected_assists": 0.05, "key_pass": 0.7372, "rating": 6.7066, "minutes": 88.96, "total_pass": 19.4978, "accurate_pass": 14.3655, "duels_won": 4.9843, "total_long_balls": 1.0133, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4722, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3341, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3615, "crosses_total": 0.6501, "crosses_accurate": 0.087, "touches": 35.0134, "possession_lost": 11.2253, "dispossessed": 1.0281, "duels_lost": 9.1084, "aerial_lost": 5.1471, "total_contest": 1.2265, "won_contest": 0.5314, "ball_recovery": 2.2524, "challenges_lost": 0.4035, "fouls": 1.9243, "fouls_drawn": 0.5729, "assists": 0.0026, "assist_rate": 0.0026, 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"antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Tyrone Mings, Aaron Wan-Bissaka", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.357, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.2311, "skill_edge": 0.1492, "height_edge": 0.008, "attacker_skill": 0.8677, "defender_skill": 0.5361, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Tyrone Mings", "market_value": 3200000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4531 }, { "player": "Aaron Wan-Bissaka", "market_value": 14100000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6191 } ], "xg_override": 0.4885 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.2479, "after": 2.7674 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.4076, "after": 1.7329 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8301, "after": 1.0219 }, { 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1.0281, "duels_lost": 9.1084, "aerial_lost": 5.1471, "total_contest": 1.2265, "won_contest": 0.5314, "ball_recovery": 2.2524, "challenges_lost": 0.4035, "fouls": 1.9243, "fouls_drawn": 0.5729, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.5749, "tackles": 0.933, "clearances": 1.0533, "blocks": 0.4164, "big_chances_created": 0.0712, "big_chances_missed": 0.7382, "xgot": 0.4152, "offsides": 0.2164, "ball_carries": 6.8605, "total_progression": 1.4473, "progressive_carries": 0.6259, "shots_off_target": 1.7329, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2311, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.357, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tyrone Mings, Aaron Wan-Bissaka", "opponent_faced": "Tyrone Mings, Aaron Wan-Bissaka", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8397, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.499, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6218, "squad_xa_sum": 0.89, "team_expected_assists": 0.9744, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9243, "xa_scale": 1.0947, "opponent_lambda": 1.418, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.4885, "after": 0.4515 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4515, "goal_rate": 0.4022, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0219, "total_shots": 2.7674, "expected_assists": 0.0547, "key_pass": 0.7372, "rating": 6.7066, "minutes": 88.96, "total_pass": 19.4978, "accurate_pass": 14.3655, "duels_won": 4.9843, "total_long_balls": 1.0133, 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0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.194 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0441 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0375 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0287 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0261 } ], "others": 0.018, "total": 0.7496, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.253009 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.052087 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.046558 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.037178 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.035088 } ], "others_margin": 0.024299 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.968907356262207, "model_output": 6.9689, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": 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"xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 37, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.7325, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.273 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1215 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0481 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0208 } ], "others": -0.0128, "total": 0.7325, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.273023 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121519 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.048093 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.024751 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 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0.1392 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0578 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0397 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0317 } ], "others": 0.1108, "total": 1.0937, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.187715 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.068635 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.045457 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.042633 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.03281 } ], "others_margin": 0.106915 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.819440841674805, "model_output": 6.8194, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", 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0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0731 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0461 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": -0.0158, "total": 0.1835, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.255621 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.203076 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121463 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.099823 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.048264 } ], "others_margin": -0.083134 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6728076934814453, "model_output": 0.6728, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", 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"home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0527, "expected_assists": 0.3254, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1027, "combined_rank_score": 456.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 391.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.95, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 522.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8516, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mamadou Sangare", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Robin Roefs", "ranking": 1022 }, { "player_name": "Andrea Cambiaso", "ranking": 1023 }, { "player_name": "Clarismario", "ranking": 1024 }, { "player_name": "Milan Obradović", "ranking": 1025 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Carreras", "ranking": 1026 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Azizbek Pirmukhamedov", "ranking": 1028 }, { "player_name": "Jonas Urbig", "ranking": 1029 }, { "player_name": "James Donachie", "ranking": 1030 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Campos", "ranking": 1031 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Romero", "ranking": 1032 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.581, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", 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"importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0709 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0359 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0301 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0232, "total": 0.2313, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.247153 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132537 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.109937 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.05621 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.038852 } ], "others_margin": -0.094969 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0347102880477905, "model_output": 1.0347, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1486 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0465 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0368 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0348 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0307 } ], "others": -0.0866, "total": 1.0347, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.14858 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.046451 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.036839 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.034828 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.030716 } ], "others_margin": -0.086588 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.85163688659668, "model_output": 6.8516, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0309 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.007 } ], "others": -0.0313, "total": 6.8516, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030922 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.014934 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012869 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.008126 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.006957 } ], "others_margin": -0.03139 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0406, quality 0.775)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7138, "expected_assists": 0.0517, "assists": 0.0659, "assist_rate": 0.0659, "expected_goals": 0.071, "goals": 0.0908, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "shots_on_target": 0.2407, "total_shots": 1.0767, "rating": 6.8516, "minutes": 78.87, "total_pass": 39.547, "accurate_pass": 31.7214, "duels_won": 7.0436, "total_long_balls": 4.0889, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7781, "total_own_half_passes": 16.8528, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.6872, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0341, "crosses_total": 0.4364, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.7322, "possession_lost": 12.5322, "dispossessed": 1.3609, "duels_lost": 5.4327, "aerial_won": 0.8891, "aerial_lost": 0.7494, "interceptions": 1.3865, "tackles_won": 1.9651, "tackles": 3.5817, "clearances": 0.9636, "total_contest": 2.4568, "won_contest": 1.6937, "challenges_lost": 0.401, "fouls": 2.1582, "fouls_drawn": 0.8792, "blocks": 0.2359, "big_chances_created": 0.2005, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0361, "ball_carries": 14.1529, "total_progression": 47.9854, "progressive_carries": 1.0896, "shots_off_target": 0.836 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 39000000, "quality_factor": 0.7754, "boost_factor": 1.0406, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0390)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7138, "expected_assists": 0.0517, "assists": 0.0823, "assist_rate": 0.0823, "expected_goals": 0.071, "goals": 0.0873, "goal_rate": 0.0873, "shots_on_target": 0.2501, "total_shots": 1.1092, "rating": 6.8516, "minutes": 78.87, "total_pass": 39.547, "accurate_pass": 31.7214, "duels_won": 7.0436, "total_long_balls": 4.0889, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7781, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0066, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0226, "tackles": 1.386, "tackles_won": 0.7722, "clearances": 6.0215, "aerial_won": 2.9037, "total_shots": 0.4508, "rating": 6.7264, "minutes": 87.68, "total_pass": 39.6617, "accurate_pass": 33.0966, "duels_won": 4.3751, "total_long_balls": 3.6052, "accurate_long_balls": 1.124, "total_own_half_passes": 25.4095, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.929, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2521, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1676, "crosses_total": 0.1453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0492, "touches": 52.9045, "possession_lost": 7.5175, "dispossessed": 0.3937, "duels_lost": 3.8101, "aerial_lost": 1.9296, "total_contest": 0.2476, "won_contest": 0.0682, "ball_recovery": 2.6689, "challenges_lost": 0.4299, "fouls": 0.8844, "fouls_drawn": 0.3447, "blocks": 0.6109, "goals": 0.0, 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0.0, "xgot": 0.0112, "ball_carries": 14.2523, "total_progression": 68.8214, "progressive_carries": 1.2112, "key_pass": 0.4408, "shots_off_target": 0.3398 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.022, "tackles": 1.386, "tackles_won": 0.7689, "clearances": 6.0215, "aerial_won": 2.9037, "total_shots": 0.4551, "rating": 6.7264, "minutes": 87.68, "total_pass": 39.6617, "accurate_pass": 33.0966, "duels_won": 4.3751, "total_long_balls": 3.6052, "accurate_long_balls": 1.124, "total_own_half_passes": 25.4095, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.929, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2521, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1676, "crosses_total": 0.1436, "crosses_accurate": 0.0492, "touches": 52.9045, "possession_lost": 7.5175, "dispossessed": 0.3937, "duels_lost": 3.8101, "aerial_lost": 1.9296, "total_contest": 0.2476, 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}, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0682 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0408 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0294 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0122 } ], "others": 0.0199, "total": 0.6263, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.06815 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.040769 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.02942 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.015291 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.012247 } ], "others_margin": 0.019909 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.691627502441406, "model_output": 6.6916, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0331, "total": 6.6916, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.033332 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.016993 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.016363 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013387 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013111 } ], "others_margin": -0.033045 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 41, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0086, quality 0.775)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0451, "tackles": 1.5339, "tackles_won": 0.9697, "clearances": 2.345, "aerial_won": 0.9217, "total_shots": 0.6317, "rating": 6.6916, "minutes": 79.91, "total_pass": 22.5874, "accurate_pass": 18.4568, "duels_won": 4.4599, "total_long_balls": 1.4938, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7684, "total_own_half_passes": 12.5658, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.7064, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0216, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7504, "crosses_total": 1.122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1434, "touches": 45.8624, "possession_lost": 12.1217, "dispossessed": 0.5644, "duels_lost": 4.5802, "aerial_lost": 0.9117, "total_contest": 2.4914, "won_contest": 1.1862, "ball_recovery": 3.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.9653, "fouls": 0.8919, "fouls_drawn": 1.1019, "blocks": 0.564, "goals": 0.1249, 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"Pape Gueye", "ranking": 826 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Antonio Raíllo", "ranking": 828 }, { "player_name": "Dilshod Akhmadaliev", "ranking": 829 }, { "player_name": "Botirali Ergashev", "ranking": 830 }, { "player_name": "Mathias Jensen", "ranking": 831 }, { "player_name": "Khozhimat Erkinov", "ranking": 832 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", 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"items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0129 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0105 } ], "others": 0.0043, "total": -0.0335, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.01811 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.015951 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.01288 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": -0.010529 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.010521 } ], "others_margin": 0.004277 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.985526084899902, "model_output": 6.9855, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", 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"volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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}, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 3.1181, "after": 3.1124 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.1124, "goals_prevented": -0.0337, "rating": 6.9855, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.0481, "accurate_pass": 23.2186, "total_long_balls": 18.1458, "accurate_long_balls": 6.3184, "touches": 45.9432, "clearances": 1.5021, "ball_recovery": 8.3645, "high_claims": 0.8383, "punches": 1.1463, "aerial_won": 0.4157, "sweeper_actions": 0.8072, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8072, "saves_inside_box": 2.0832, "possession_lost": 12.0028, "duels_won": 0.4749, "duels_lost": 0.0874, "total_contest": 0.0439, "won_contest": 0.0439, "fouls": 0.0648, "fouls_drawn": 0.0179, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6342, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.5598 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre 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"importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.4281 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1211 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0941 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0863 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0563 } ], "others": -0.2078, "total": 0.6891, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.370669 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.135694 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.107002 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.097769 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.064794 } ], "others_margin": -0.263658 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0007872581481934, "model_output": 1.0008, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3502 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0695 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0324 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0319 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0229 } ], "others": 0.0686, "total": 1.0008, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.350244 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.069519 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.032395 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.031915 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.022911 } ], "others_margin": 0.068494 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.701164245605469, "model_output": 6.7012, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0294 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0139 } ], "others": -0.0438, "total": 6.7012, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.029387 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022688 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.017127 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.015784 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013869 } ], "others_margin": -0.043887 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0053, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8301, "tackles": 1.4302, "tackles_won": 0.8285, "clearances": 2.4585, "aerial_won": 0.6927, "total_shots": 1.0061, "rating": 6.7012, "minutes": 83.28, "total_pass": 30.062, "accurate_pass": 23.1315, "duels_won": 3.2598, "total_long_balls": 4.2358, "accurate_long_balls": 1.361, "total_own_half_passes": 12.8206, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8642, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2414, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2674, "crosses_total": 3.964, "crosses_accurate": 1.2033, "touches": 50.7308, "possession_lost": 13.9172, "dispossessed": 0.5525, "duels_lost": 4.8062, "aerial_lost": 1.7076, "total_contest": 1.8202, "won_contest": 0.667, "ball_recovery": 3.6911, "challenges_lost": 0.2, "fouls": 1.193, "fouls_drawn": 0.9623, "blocks": 0.3143, "goals": 0.1115, 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0.9623, "after": 0.9532 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.964, "after": 3.9702 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.831, "tackles": 1.4302, "tackles_won": 0.8294, "clearances": 2.4585, "aerial_won": 0.6927, "total_shots": 1.01, "rating": 6.7012, "minutes": 83.28, "total_pass": 30.062, "accurate_pass": 23.1315, "duels_won": 3.2598, "total_long_balls": 4.2358, "accurate_long_balls": 1.361, "total_own_half_passes": 12.8206, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8642, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2414, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2674, "crosses_total": 3.9702, "crosses_accurate": 1.2033, "touches": 50.7308, "possession_lost": 13.9172, "dispossessed": 0.5525, "duels_lost": 4.8062, "aerial_lost": 1.7076, "total_contest": 1.8202, "won_contest": 0.667, "ball_recovery": 3.6911, "challenges_lost": 0.2, "fouls": 1.1905, "fouls_drawn": 0.9532, "blocks": 0.3143, "goals": 0.1148, "goal_rate": 0.1148, "assists": 0.1567, "assist_rate": 0.1567, "expected_goals": 0.1667, "expected_assists": 0.1366, "shots_on_target": 0.3622, "big_chances_created": 0.1945, "xgot": 0.1241, "ball_carries": 13.6304, "total_progression": 56.0538, "progressive_carries": 1.4235, "key_pass": 1.0448, "shots_off_target": 0.6449 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.831, "tackles": 1.4302, "tackles_won": 0.8294, "clearances": 2.4585, "aerial_won": 0.6927, "total_shots": 1.01, "rating": 6.7012, "minutes": 83.28, "total_pass": 30.062, "accurate_pass": 23.1315, "duels_won": 3.2598, "total_long_balls": 4.2358, "accurate_long_balls": 1.361, "total_own_half_passes": 12.8206, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8642, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2414, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2674, "crosses_total": 3.9702, "crosses_accurate": 1.2033, "touches": 50.7308, "possession_lost": 13.9172, "dispossessed": 0.5525, "duels_lost": 4.8062, "aerial_lost": 1.7076, "total_contest": 1.8202, "won_contest": 0.667, "ball_recovery": 3.6911, "challenges_lost": 0.2, "fouls": 1.1905, "fouls_drawn": 0.9532, "blocks": 0.3143, "goals": 0.1148, "goal_rate": 0.1148, "assists": 0.1567, "assist_rate": 0.1567, "expected_goals": 0.1667, "expected_assists": 0.1366, "shots_on_target": 0.3622, "big_chances_created": 0.1945, "xgot": 0.1241, "ball_carries": 13.6304, "total_progression": 56.0538, "progressive_carries": 1.4235, "key_pass": 1.0448, "shots_off_target": 0.6449, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.416, "opponent_faced": "Johan Manzambi", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Johan Manzambi", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.6218, xG scale 0.9243, xA scale 1.0947, team xA 0.97 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.831, "tackles": 1.4302, "tackles_won": 0.8294, "clearances": 2.4585, "aerial_won": 0.6927, "total_shots": 1.01, "rating": 6.7012, "minutes": 83.28, "total_pass": 30.062, "accurate_pass": 23.1315, "duels_won": 3.2598, "total_long_balls": 4.2358, "accurate_long_balls": 1.361, "total_own_half_passes": 12.8206, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8642, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2414, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2674, "crosses_total": 3.9702, "crosses_accurate": 1.2033, "touches": 50.7308, "possession_lost": 13.9172, "dispossessed": 0.5525, "duels_lost": 4.8062, "aerial_lost": 1.7076, "total_contest": 1.8202, "won_contest": 0.667, "ball_recovery": 3.6911, "challenges_lost": 0.2, "fouls": 1.1905, "fouls_drawn": 0.9532, "blocks": 0.3143, "goal_rate": 0.1148, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1567, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1541, "expected_assists": 0.1495, "shots_on_target": 0.3622, "big_chances_created": 0.1945, "xgot": 0.1147, "ball_carries": 13.6304, "total_progression": 56.0538, "progressive_carries": 1.4235, "key_pass": 1.0448, "shots_off_target": 0.6449, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.416, "opponent_faced": "Johan Manzambi", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.1077 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.499, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6218, "squad_xa_sum": 0.89, "team_expected_assists": 0.9744, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9243, "xa_scale": 1.0947, "opponent_lambda": 1.418, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1667, "after": 0.1541 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1366, "after": 0.1495 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.831, "tackles": 1.4302, "tackles_won": 0.8294, "clearances": 2.4585, "aerial_won": 0.6927, "total_shots": 1.01, "rating": 6.7012, "minutes": 83.28, "total_pass": 30.062, "accurate_pass": 23.1315, "duels_won": 3.2598, "total_long_balls": 4.2358, "accurate_long_balls": 1.361, "total_own_half_passes": 12.8206, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8642, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.843888 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.494103 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.093694 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.070698 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.061174 } ], "others_margin": 0.098796 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2658239006996155, "model_output": 0.2658, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2475 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0362 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0069, "total": 0.2658, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.247456 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.036162 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.019455 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.017674 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.014726 } ], "others_margin": -0.006958 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.88209867477417, "model_output": 6.8821, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.036 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0273 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0252 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0166 } ], "others": 0.0275, "total": 6.8821, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.035982 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.027343 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.025176 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.019011 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.016563 } ], "others_margin": 0.027577 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025022, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2397, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 45, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1159, "combined_rank_score": 511.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 151.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3143, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 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"totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7003 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0314 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0169 } ], "others": -0.0033, "total": 0.5938, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.697992 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.046342 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.044737 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.03077 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.027846 } ], "others_margin": -0.005667 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.39619627594947815, "model_output": 0.3962, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3853 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0059, "total": 0.3962, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.599532 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.054028 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.036343 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.033877 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.029693 } ], "others_margin": -0.01496 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.863767147064209, "model_output": 1.8638, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1539 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2733 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1353 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.088 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0609 } ], "others": 0.0088, "total": 1.8638, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.978359 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.191154 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.082626 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.050302 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.033388 } ], "others_margin": 0.004704 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8425337076187134, "model_output": 0.8425, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8282 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1456 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0524 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0293 } ], "others": 0.0068, "total": 0.8425, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.914536 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.23337 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.072225 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.070175 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.035653 } ], "others_margin": 0.008218 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4069505035877228, "model_output": 0.407, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2623 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1884 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0115 } ], "others": 0.0011, "total": 0.407, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.262325 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.188394 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019231 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.016414 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.011451 } ], "others_margin": 0.001116 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.74387788772583, "model_output": 6.7439, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0284 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.024 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0224, "total": 6.7439, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.028434 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.025066 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024029 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.012631 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010659 } ], "others_margin": -0.022565 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0072, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.432, "tackles": 0.598, "tackles_won": 0.399, "clearances": 1.8772, "aerial_won": 0.8486, "total_shots": 0.4099, "rating": 6.7439, "minutes": 26.57, "total_pass": 24.0367, "accurate_pass": 18.7727, "duels_won": 2.4059, "total_long_balls": 2.5233, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0659, "total_own_half_passes": 14.5089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5513, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5278, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2214, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.0144, "possession_lost": 6.2712, "dispossessed": 0.2829, "duels_lost": 0.9572, "aerial_lost": 0.3915, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3061, "challenges_lost": 0.2829, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0582, "expected_assists": 0.099, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1362, "total_progression": 15.174, "progressive_carries": 0.5444, "key_pass": 0.3915, "shots_off_target": 0.4099 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0072, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0101)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4306, "tackles": 0.598, "tackles_won": 0.398, "clearances": 1.8772, "aerial_won": 0.8486, "total_shots": 0.4132, "rating": 6.7439, "minutes": 26.57, "total_pass": 24.0367, "accurate_pass": 18.7727, "duels_won": 2.4059, "total_long_balls": 2.5233, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0659, "total_own_half_passes": 14.5089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5513, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5278, 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8.3675, "progressive_carries": 0.3002, "key_pass": 0.2159, "shots_off_target": 0.226, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.239, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.65 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.65, "projection_minutes": 26.57, "minutes_scale": 0.5514, "appearance_probability": 0.239 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2374, "tackles": 0.3298, "tackles_won": 0.2195, "clearances": 1.0352, "aerial_won": 0.4679, "total_shots": 0.2279, "rating": 6.7439, "minutes": 14.65, "total_pass": 13.2546, "accurate_pass": 10.3519, "duels_won": 1.3267, "total_long_balls": 1.3914, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5878, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0007, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.9212, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.254, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4307, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.551, "possession_lost": 3.4582, "dispossessed": 0.2829, "duels_lost": 0.5278, "aerial_lost": 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1449 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0061 } ], "others": -0.0104, "total": 0.157, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.592944 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.062531 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.047902 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.046877 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.035531 } ], "others_margin": -0.064035 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6382899880409241, "model_output": 0.6383, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3882 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0765 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0428 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0332 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0224 } ], "others": -0.0725, "total": 0.6383, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.388211 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.076459 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.042751 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.033207 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.022404 } ], "others_margin": -0.072371 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.970774173736572, "model_output": 6.9708, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1045 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0964 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.041 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.032 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0145 } ], "others": 0.0263, "total": 6.9708, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.104476 }, { "name": 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0.4309, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.62, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.523, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.522, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.649, "expected_assists": 0.0771, "assist_rate": 0.0728, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0431, "goal_rate": 0.0419, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1409, "total_shots": 0.5718, "rating": 6.9708, "minutes": 18.62, "total_pass": 11.6341, "accurate_pass": 9.0923, "duels_won": 1.4752, 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"importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2712 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0157 } ], "others": 0.0328, "total": 0.3809, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.514723 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.086158 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.070397 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.054846 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.044088 } ], "others_margin": 0.089861 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6766862869262695, "model_output": 6.6767, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": 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"prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.2198, "tackles": 0.3034, "clearances": 0.8342, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2791, "big_chances_missed": 0.1853, "xgot": 0.0304, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.0777, "total_progression": 28.5626, "progressive_carries": 0.678, "shots_off_target": 0.4775 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 36000000, "quality_factor": 0.7581, "boost_factor": 1.009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0057)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0791, "goals": 0.1036, "goal_rate": 0.1036, "shots_on_target": 0.2505, "total_shots": 0.7292, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "key_pass": 0.3843, "rating": 6.6767, "minutes": 22.32, "total_pass": 7.5024, "accurate_pass": 5.1332, "duels_won": 2.7046, "total_long_balls": 0.7234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5036, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8343, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7507, "crosses_total": 1.3549, 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SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6767, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dango Ouattara", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rasmus Højlund", "ranking": 1639 }, { "player_name": "Sabit James Ngor", "ranking": 1640 }, { "player_name": "Maximilian Beier", "ranking": 1641 }, { "player_name": "Chris Wood", "ranking": 1642 }, { "player_name": "Andrew Robertson", "ranking": 1643 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Aziz Kholmurodov", "ranking": 1645 }, { "player_name": "Uroš Kojić", "ranking": 1646 }, { "player_name": "Josh Risdon", "ranking": 1647 }, { "player_name": "Georges Mikautadze", "ranking": 1648 }, { "player_name": "Trai Hume", "ranking": 1649 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.761, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", 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"contribution": -0.0157 } ], "others": 0.0328, "total": 0.3809, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.514723 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.086158 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.070397 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.054846 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.044088 } ], "others_margin": 0.089861 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6766862869262695, "model_output": 6.6767, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0615 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": 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0.2198, "tackles": 0.3034, "clearances": 0.8342, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2791, "big_chances_missed": 0.1853, "xgot": 0.0304, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.0777, "total_progression": 28.5626, "progressive_carries": 0.678, "shots_off_target": 0.4775 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 36000000, "quality_factor": 0.7581, "boost_factor": 1.009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0057)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0791, "goals": 0.1036, "goal_rate": 0.1036, "shots_on_target": 0.2505, "total_shots": 0.7292, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "key_pass": 0.3843, "rating": 6.6767, "minutes": 22.32, "total_pass": 7.5024, "accurate_pass": 5.1332, "duels_won": 2.7046, "total_long_balls": 0.7234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5036, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8343, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7507, "crosses_total": 1.3549, 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0.8642, "shots_off_target": 0.6086, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 28.45, "projection_minutes": 22.32, "minutes_scale": 1.2746, "appearance_probability": 0.552 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1008, "goals": 0.1321, "goal_rate": 0.1321, "shots_on_target": 0.3193, "total_shots": 0.9295, "expected_assists": 0.0496, "key_pass": 0.4898, "rating": 6.6767, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.5629, "accurate_pass": 6.543, "duels_won": 3.4474, "total_long_balls": 0.9221, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6419, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5062, "crosses_total": 1.727, "crosses_accurate": 0.4276, "touches": 19.7462, "possession_lost": 7.0336, "dispossessed": 0.095, "duels_lost": 3.7239, "aerial_lost": 0.8169, "total_contest": 2.5506, "won_contest": 1.2169, "ball_recovery": 2.1388, 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9.5629, "accurate_pass": 6.543, "duels_won": 3.4474, "total_long_balls": 0.9221, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6419, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5062, "crosses_total": 1.727, "crosses_accurate": 0.4276, "touches": 19.7462, "possession_lost": 7.0336, "dispossessed": 0.095, "duels_lost": 3.7239, "aerial_lost": 0.8169, "total_contest": 2.5506, "won_contest": 1.2169, "ball_recovery": 2.1388, "challenges_lost": 0.3034, "fouls": 0.8411, "fouls_drawn": 0.7302, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3053, "tackles_won": 0.2802, "tackles": 0.3867, "clearances": 1.0633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3558, "big_chances_missed": 0.2362, "xgot": 0.0358, "offsides": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 6.4722, "total_progression": 36.4071, "progressive_carries": 0.8642, "shots_off_target": 0.6086, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, 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"others_margin": -0.028203 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.643581390380859, "model_output": 6.6436, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0531 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0471 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0144 } ], "others": -0.0542, "total": 6.6436, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.053117 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.047138 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.018818 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.017711 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014356 } ], "others_margin": -0.054148 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0199, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2423, "expected_assists": 0.023, "assists": 0.0257, "assist_rate": 0.0257, "expected_goals": 0.0284, "goals": 0.036, "goal_rate": 0.036, "shots_on_target": 0.1151, "total_shots": 0.2346, "rating": 6.6436, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 11.2189, "accurate_pass": 8.1592, "duels_won": 5.0995, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.0796, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0597, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0995, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.3781, "possession_lost": 4.0796, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0199, "aerial_won": 2.0398, "aerial_lost": 1.0199, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0199, "tackles": 3.0597, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1195 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15500000, "quality_factor": 0.5846, "boost_factor": 1.0199, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2876, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "assists": 0.0305, "assist_rate": 0.0305, "expected_goals": 0.0337, "goals": 0.0427, "goal_rate": 0.0427, "shots_on_target": 0.1366, "total_shots": 0.2785, "rating": 6.6436, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 13.318, "accurate_pass": 9.6858, "duels_won": 6.0536, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8429, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6322, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4751, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0536, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.0039, "possession_lost": 4.8429, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2107, "aerial_won": 2.4215, "aerial_lost": 1.0199, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.2107, "tackles": 3.6322, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1419, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.56, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.1871, "appearance_probability": 0.525 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2876, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "assists": 0.0305, "assist_rate": 0.0305, "expected_goals": 0.0337, "goals": 0.0427, "goal_rate": 0.0427, "shots_on_target": 0.1366, "total_shots": 0.2785, "rating": 6.6436, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 13.318, "accurate_pass": 9.6858, "duels_won": 6.0536, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8429, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6322, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4751, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0536, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.0039, "possession_lost": 4.8429, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2107, "aerial_won": 2.4215, "aerial_lost": 1.0199, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.2107, "tackles": 3.6322, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1419, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.6218, xG scale 0.9243, xA scale 1.0947, team xA 0.97 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2876, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0305, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0427, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1366, "total_shots": 0.2785, "rating": 6.6436, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 13.318, "accurate_pass": 9.6858, "duels_won": 6.0536, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8429, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6322, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4751, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0536, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.0039, "possession_lost": 4.8429, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2107, "aerial_won": 2.4215, "aerial_lost": 1.0199, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.2107, "tackles": 3.6322, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1419, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.523, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1075, "creation_factor": 1.0414 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.499, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6218, "squad_xa_sum": 0.89, "team_expected_assists": 0.9744, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9243, "xa_scale": 1.0947, "opponent_lambda": 1.418, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.525 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2876, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0305, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0427, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1366, "total_shots": 0.2785, "rating": 6.6436, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 13.318, "accurate_pass": 9.6858, "duels_won": 6.0536, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8429, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6322, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4751, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0536, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.0039, "possession_lost": 4.8429, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2107, "aerial_won": 2.4215, "aerial_lost": 1.0199, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.2107, "tackles": 3.6322, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1419, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.523, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1075, "creation_factor": 1.0414, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4004, "fifa_rank": 3273.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2876, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0305, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0427, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1366, "total_shots": 0.2785, "rating": 6.6436, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 13.318, "accurate_pass": 9.6858, "duels_won": 6.0536, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8429, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6322, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4751, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0536, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.0039, "possession_lost": 4.8429, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2107, "aerial_won": 2.4215, "aerial_lost": 1.0199, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.2107, "tackles": 3.6322, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1419, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.523, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0161, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1075, "creation_factor": 1.0414, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0161, "scorer_weight": 0.0181, "squad_weight_total": 1.5397, "weight_share": 0.0117, "finishing_factor": 1.1075, "appearance_weight": 0.525, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kevin Schade", "weight": 0.3859, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3859, "runner_up": "Igor Thiago", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3791 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Igor Thiago", "weight": 0.3791, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3791, "runner_up": "Jaidon Anthony", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2228 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2876, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0305, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0427, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1366, "total_shots": 0.2785, "rating": 6.6436, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 13.318, "accurate_pass": 9.6858, "duels_won": 6.0536, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8429, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6322, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4751, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0536, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.0039, "possession_lost": 4.8429, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2107, "aerial_won": 2.4215, "aerial_lost": 1.0199, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.2107, "tackles": 3.6322, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1419, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.523, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0161, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0155, "finishing_factor": 1.1075, "creation_factor": 1.0414, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0155, "provider_weight": 0.0163, "squad_weight_total": 0.9938, "weight_share": 0.0165, "creation_factor": 1.0414, "appearance_weight": 0.525, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jannik Schuster", "weight": 0.2889, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2889, "runner_up": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1656 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 1.5, "expected_assists": 0.97, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 383, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 21, "avg_rating": 6.84, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Johan Manzambi", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 71000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.872, "defenders": [ "Keane Lewis-Potter" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.584, "xg_contribution": 0.2729, "xg_multiplier": 1.153, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "role": "RB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.416 } ], "duel_analysis": "Johan Manzambi (LW) is slightly favored against Keane Lewis-Potter in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 58%. The quality gap is significant (€71M vs €24M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.15 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.273 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Nicolas Jackson", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "Kristoffer Ajer", "Jannik Schuster" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.632, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.21, "xg_contribution": 0.2659, "xg_multiplier": 1.0146, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kristoffer Ajer", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.79 }, { "player": "Jannik Schuster", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.79 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nicolas Jackson (ST) is evenly matched against Kristoffer Ajer and Jannik Schuster in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€39M vs €20M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.266 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Emiliano Buendía", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 14600000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.575, "defenders": [ "Kristoffer Ajer", "Jannik Schuster" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.632, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1235, "xg_multiplier": 0.8348, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kristoffer Ajer", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jannik Schuster", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Emiliano Buendía (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Kristoffer Ajer and Jannik Schuster in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.83 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.123 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "John McGinn", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 12600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.552, "defenders": [ "Kristoffer Ajer", "Jannik Schuster" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.632, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0998, "xg_multiplier": 0.8201, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kristoffer Ajer", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jannik Schuster", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "John McGinn (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Kristoffer Ajer and Jannik Schuster in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.82 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.100 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "João Gomes", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Vitaly Janelt" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.596, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.463, "xg_contribution": 0.0443, "xg_multiplier": 1.0629, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vitaly Janelt", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 16600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.537 } ], "duel_analysis": "João Gomes (CDM) is slightly favored against Vitaly Janelt in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. The quality gap is significant (€36M vs €17M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Boubacar Kamara", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "Vitaly Janelt" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.596, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.502, "xg_contribution": 0.0637, "xg_multiplier": 1.1204, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vitaly Janelt", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 16600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.498 } ], "duel_analysis": "Boubacar Kamara (CDM) is slightly favored against Vitaly Janelt in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€39M vs €17M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.12 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.064 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Yehor Yarmoliuk", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 30000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.718, "defenders": [ "Victor Lindelöf" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.46, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.557, "xg_contribution": 0.0475, "xg_multiplier": 1.1128, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Victor Lindelöf", "role": "RB", "market_value": 4800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.443 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yehor Yarmoliuk (LW) is slightly favored against Victor Lindelöf in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€30M vs €5M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.11 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.048 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Igor Thiago", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 68000000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.868, "defenders": [ "Tyrone Mings", "Aaron Wan-Bissaka" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.505, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.357, "xg_contribution": 0.4885, "xg_multiplier": 1.2311, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tyrone Mings", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.643 }, { "player": "Aaron Wan-Bissaka", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.643 } ], "duel_analysis": "Igor Thiago (ST) has a clear attacking advantage against Tyrone Mings and Aaron Wan-Bissaka in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 36%. The quality gap is significant (€68M vs €9M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.23 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.489 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Kevin Schade", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Tyrone Mings", "Aaron Wan-Bissaka" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.505, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.276, "xg_contribution": 0.3358, "xg_multiplier": 1.1116, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tyrone Mings", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.724 }, { "player": "Aaron Wan-Bissaka", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.724 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kevin Schade (ST) is slightly favored against Tyrone Mings and Aaron Wan-Bissaka in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€36M vs €9M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.11 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.336 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Jaidon Anthony", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 19400000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.625, "defenders": [ "Tyrone Mings", "Aaron Wan-Bissaka" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.505, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.192, "xg_contribution": 0.2091, "xg_multiplier": 0.9883, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tyrone Mings", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.808 }, { "player": "Aaron Wan-Bissaka", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.808 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jaidon Anthony (ST) is evenly matched against Tyrone Mings and Aaron Wan-Bissaka in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.209 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Vitaly Janelt", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 16600000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.596, "defenders": [ "João Gomes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.758, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.377, "xg_contribution": 0.0434, "xg_multiplier": 0.9371, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "João Gomes", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.623 } ], "duel_analysis": "Vitaly Janelt (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against João Gomes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€17M vs €36M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Mamadou Sangare", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "João Gomes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.758, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.447, "xg_contribution": 0.0738, "xg_multiplier": 1.0398, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "João Gomes", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.553 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mamadou Sangare (CDM) is evenly matched against João Gomes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.074 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.802, "away_midfield_power": 0.696, "home_creative_power": 0.7, "away_creative_power": 0.61, "home_defensive_power": 0.757, "away_defensive_power": 0.729, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.535, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Johan Manzambi", "João Gomes", "Boubacar Kamara" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Yehor Yarmoliuk", "Vitaly Janelt", "Mamadou Sangare" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.2, "home_throughball_threat": 2.7, "away_throughball_threat": 2.4, "key_personal_duel": "Johan Manzambi vs Mamadou Sangare", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.006, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.985 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.418, "away_lambda": 1.499, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Johan Manzambi": { "opponents": [ "Keane Lewis-Potter", "Yehor Yarmoliuk" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nicolas Jackson": { "opponents": [ "Kristoffer Ajer", "Jannik Schuster" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Emiliano Buendía": { "opponents": [ "Kristoffer Ajer", "Jannik Schuster" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "John McGinn": { "opponents": [ "Kristoffer Ajer", "Jannik Schuster" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "João Gomes": { "opponents": [ "Vitaly Janelt", "Mamadou Sangare" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Boubacar Kamara": { "opponents": [ "Vitaly Janelt", "Mamadou Sangare" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Victor Lindelöf": { "opponents": [ "Yehor Yarmoliuk" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Tyrone Mings": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago", "Kevin Schade", "Jaidon Anthony" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aaron Wan-Bissaka": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago", "Kevin Schade", "Jaidon Anthony" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Zion Suzuki": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago", "Kevin Schade" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Matteo Ruggeri": { "opponents": [ "Jaidon Anthony" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Keane Lewis-Potter": { "opponents": [ "Johan Manzambi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kristoffer Ajer": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Jackson", "Emiliano Buendía", "John McGinn" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jannik Schuster": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Jackson", "Emiliano Buendía", "John McGinn" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Vitaly Janelt": { "opponents": [ "João Gomes", "Boubacar Kamara" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yehor Yarmoliuk": { "opponents": [ "Victor Lindelöf", "Johan Manzambi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Igor Thiago": { "opponents": [ "Tyrone Mings", "Aaron Wan-Bissaka" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kevin Schade": { "opponents": [ "Tyrone Mings", "Aaron Wan-Bissaka" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jaidon Anthony": { "opponents": [ "Tyrone Mings", "Aaron Wan-Bissaka" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mamadou Sangare": { "opponents": [ "João Gomes", "Boubacar Kamara" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Caoimhin Kelleher": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Jackson", "Emiliano Buendía" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Michael Kayode": { "opponents": [ "John McGinn" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Johan Manzambi vs Mamadou Sangare will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.87, Away: 1.20. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9123, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8928, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.168, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9283, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9736, "home_midfield_factor": 1.006, "away_midfield_factor": 0.985, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.6471, "away_avg_quality": 0.7048, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0577, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.1729, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.0, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.0145, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0667, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8701, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0151 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.006, "result": 1.0212 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0212 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.1743 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.8943, "result": 1.0502 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9123, "result": 0.9581 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9283, "result": 0.8894 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.0694 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0694, "result": 1.0694, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0667, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.0694, "result": 1.0694 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0694 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.289 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.289 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.289, "result": 1.289, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1, "result": 1.418 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.418, "result": 1.418, "available": false }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.418 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.418 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.418, "result": 1.418, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.418 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.1981, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.2611 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.985, "result": 1.2422 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.2422 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.2422 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0882, "result": 1.3517 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8928, "result": 1.2068 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9736, "result": 1.175 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.168, "result": 1.343 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.343, "result": 1.343, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0667, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.343, "result": 1.343 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.343 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.2016, "result": 1.5446 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.5446 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.5446, "result": 1.545, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "result": 1.499 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.499, "result": 1.499, "available": false }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.499 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.499 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.499, "result": 1.499, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.499 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.2016, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.418, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.499, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.289, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.5446, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.418, "final_away_lambda": 1.499 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 16, "opponent_position": 4, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8943, "attack_index": 0.927, "defense_concede_index": 0.824, "form_multiplier": 0.974, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.31, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.16, "team_ppg": 1.09, "opponent_ppg": 1.55 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 4, "opponent_position": 16, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0882, "attack_index": 1.061, "defense_concede_index": 1.149, "form_multiplier": 1.026, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.62, "team_ppg": 1.55, "opponent_ppg": 1.09 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Aston Villa vs Brentford. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.289, Away 1.545). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.418, Away 1.499 (most likely score 1-2).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.418, "away_lambda": 1.499, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.289, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.545 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-10T13:31:12Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }