{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Ipswich", "away_team": "Fulham", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261010", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0925, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Ipswich", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2594, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0925 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1231 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0859 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0853 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0794 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0676, "0-1": 0.0853, "0-2": 0.0563, "0-3": 0.0244, "0-4": 0.008, "0-5": 0.0021, "1-0": 0.0925, "1-1": 0.1231, "1-2": 0.0794, "1-3": 0.0344, "1-4": 0.0112, "1-5": 0.0029, "1-6": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.066, "2-1": 0.0859, "2-2": 0.0559, "2-3": 0.0243, "2-4": 0.0079, "2-5": 0.0021, "3-0": 0.031, "3-1": 0.0404, "3-2": 0.0263, "3-3": 0.0114, "3-4": 0.0037, "3-5": 0.001, "4-0": 0.0109, "4-1": 0.0142, "4-2": 0.0093, "4-3": 0.004, "4-4": 0.0013, "5-0": 0.0031, "5-1": 0.004, "5-2": 0.0026, "5-3": 0.0011, "6-0": 0.0007, "6-1": 0.0009, "6-2": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3951, "draw": 0.2594, "away_win": 0.3455 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5093, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4907, "btts_yes": 0.5514, "btts_no": 0.4486, "home_clean_sheet": 0.272, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2441 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.77, "MCR": 6.9, "ATR": 6.8, "GK": 6.93 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.8, "MCR": 6.92, "ATR": 6.91, "GK": 6.98 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Ipswich vs Fulham. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Leif Davis", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Exequiel Palacios vs Sander Berge will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.92, Away: 0.89. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.68, "home_lambda": 1.41, "away_lambda": 1.302, "h2h": { "available": false, "meetings": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_wins": 0, "draws": 0, "home_multiplier": 1.0, "away_multiplier": 1.0 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1231, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3951, "draw": 0.2594, "away_win": 0.3455 }, "favorite": "Ipswich", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3951, "fair_spread": 0.108, "fair_total": 2.712, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Ipswich", "estimate": 1.41, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Fulham", "estimate": 1.302, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5093, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5514, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Ipswich", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.272, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Fulham", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2441, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Leif Davis (Ipswich)", "estimate": 0.3402, "probability": 0.2884, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Gonzalo García (Fulham)", "estimate": 0.375, "probability": 0.3127, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Julio Enciso (Ipswich)", "estimate": 0.1565, "probability": 0.1449, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alex Iwobi (Fulham)", "estimate": 0.1977, "probability": 0.1794, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.712, "expected_total_shots": 28, "expected_total_passes": 874, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.8, "possession_home_pct": 49.7, "possession_away_pct": 50.3, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Ipswich", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3951, "script": "Ipswich is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.11 goals and fair total 2.71.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Fulham must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Ipswich lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Fulham chance creation leans on Gonzalo García against Leif Davis, Issa Diop in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Ipswich: starters carry the main goal usage through Leif Davis; bench watchlist: Sindre Walle Egeli, Darnell Furlong.", "Fulham: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Hugo Larsson, Kevin, Rodrigo Muniz.", "Assist usage should flow through Julio Enciso; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Ipswich tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.36 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Fulham is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Ipswich.", "Fulham wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Ipswich": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Emersonn": { "player_id": 1128844, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 186, "market_value": 7700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2899, "goal_rate": 0.3375, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0527, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7928, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 7.4356, "dispossessed": 0.3058, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.2229, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.3056, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9042, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "opponent_faced": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2517, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0513, "finishing_factor": 1.1132, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363651, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1325, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.44, "expected_assists": 0.0472, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363261, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2156, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8201, "expected_assists": 0.0626, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3501, "combined_rank_score": 1483.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 292.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.05, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 2674.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7928, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Emersonn", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Baptiste Santamaria", "ranking": 3496 }, { "player_name": "Quentin Merlin", "ranking": 3497 }, { "player_name": "Eddie Nketiah", "ranking": 3498 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Acuña", "ranking": 3499 }, { "player_name": "Nathan Ngoy", "ranking": 3500 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sebastian Nanasi", "ranking": 3502 }, { "player_name": "Hugo Bueno", "ranking": 3503 }, { "player_name": "Vanderson", "ranking": 3504 }, { "player_name": "Arthur Masuaku", "ranking": 3505 }, { "player_name": "Mario Götze", "ranking": 3506 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.575, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.575, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9985, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 110.0, "goals_per90": 0.8333333333333334, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.45, "shots_on_target_pct": 66.7, "prior_reliability": 0.08 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 5 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Ipswich Town, rel: 0.08, gls/90: 0.8333333333333334, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3302, "goals": 0.3666, "goal_rate": 0.3666, "shots_on_target": 0.8996, "total_shots": 2.1893, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "key_pass": 0.5829, "rating": 6.7928, "minutes": 69.91, "total_pass": 7.8359, "accurate_pass": 5.353, "duels_won": 3.4671, "total_long_balls": 0.1656, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.217, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7341, "crosses_total": 0.1408, "crosses_accurate": 0.1408, "touches": 19.7441, "possession_lost": 7.4468, "dispossessed": 0.3063, "duels_lost": 5.2274, "aerial_lost": 3.7358, "total_contest": 0.9003, "won_contest": 0.5107, "ball_recovery": 0.794, "challenges_lost": 0.6301, "fouls": 0.1656, "fouls_drawn": 0.9252, "assists": 0.2292, "assist_rate": 0.2292, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6052, "tackles": 0.6052, "clearances": 0.5012, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4903, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.348, "offsides": 0.3896, "ball_carries": 4.0792, "total_progression": 9.6284, "progressive_carries": 0.4988, "shots_off_target": 1.2897 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 7.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.294, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 6.217, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 3.7341, "accuratePass": 5.353, "totalShots": 1.8439 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.3301759660243988, "model_output": 0.3302, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0646 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0323 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.014 } ], "others": 0.0196, "total": 0.3302, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.281207 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.115717 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.049314 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.047117 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.046211 } ], "others_margin": 0.061218 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.3665795624256134, "model_output": 0.3666, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0623 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0485 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0262 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.021 } ], "others": 0.0308, "total": 0.3666, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.266921 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.167433 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.079907 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.078919 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.064696 } ], "others_margin": 0.087287 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.8996049761772156, "model_output": 0.8996, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1579 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0544 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0432 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0457 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0309 } ], "others": 0.0305, "total": 0.8996, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.25775 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.07538 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.056103 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.056039 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.03622 } ], "others_margin": 0.034504 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.1892731189727783, "model_output": 2.1893, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4764 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1247 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0476 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0409 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0377 } ], "others": 0.0833, "total": 2.1893, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.476435 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.124738 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.047624 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.040867 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.03774 } ], "others_margin": 0.083162 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.0374806672334671, "model_output": 0.0375, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0187, "total": 0.0375, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.256316 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.142396 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.116949 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.080886 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.05112 } ], "others_margin": -0.404441 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5829306840896606, "model_output": 0.5829, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1975 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0618 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0469 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0378 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0345 } ], "others": -0.1076, "total": 0.5829, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.25703 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.073565 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.059716 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.050891 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.048723 } ], "others_margin": -0.169261 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.792782306671143, "model_output": 6.7928, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0667 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0361, "total": 6.7928, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.066671 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.019608 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019104 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": -0.013707 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.013184 } ], "others_margin": -0.03603 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.495)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3297, "goals": 0.366, "goal_rate": 0.366, "shots_on_target": 0.8983, "total_shots": 2.1861, "expected_assists": 0.0374, "key_pass": 0.5821, "rating": 6.7928, "minutes": 69.91, "total_pass": 7.8241, "accurate_pass": 5.345, "duels_won": 3.4619, "total_long_balls": 0.1654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2077, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7285, "crosses_total": 0.1406, "crosses_accurate": 0.1406, "touches": 19.7145, "possession_lost": 7.4356, "dispossessed": 0.3058, "duels_lost": 5.2196, "aerial_lost": 3.7302, "total_contest": 0.8989, "won_contest": 0.5099, "ball_recovery": 0.7928, "challenges_lost": 0.6292, "fouls": 0.1654, "fouls_drawn": 0.9238, "assists": 0.2289, "assist_rate": 0.2289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6043, "tackles": 0.6043, "clearances": 0.5004, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4896, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3475, "offsides": 0.389, "ball_carries": 4.0731, "total_progression": 9.614, "progressive_carries": 0.4981, "shots_off_target": 1.2878 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7700000, "quality_factor": 0.4951, "boost_factor": 0.9985, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0260)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3297, "goals": 0.3733, "goal_rate": 0.3733, "shots_on_target": 0.9081, "total_shots": 2.1787, "expected_assists": 0.0374, "key_pass": 0.5821, "rating": 6.7928, "minutes": 69.91, "total_pass": 7.8241, "accurate_pass": 5.345, "duels_won": 3.4619, "total_long_balls": 0.1654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2077, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7285, "crosses_total": 0.1538, "crosses_accurate": 0.1406, "touches": 19.7145, "possession_lost": 7.4356, "dispossessed": 0.3058, "duels_lost": 5.2196, "aerial_lost": 3.7302, "total_contest": 0.8989, "won_contest": 0.5099, "ball_recovery": 0.7928, "challenges_lost": 0.6292, "fouls": 0.1779, "fouls_drawn": 0.9334, "assists": 0.2229, "assist_rate": 0.2229, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6054, "tackles": 0.6043, "clearances": 0.5004, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4896, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3475, "offsides": 0.3789, "ball_carries": 4.0731, "total_progression": 9.614, "progressive_carries": 0.4981, "shots_off_target": 1.2878 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.026, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7768, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.1406, "after": 0.1538 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.1654, "after": 0.1779 }, { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.389, "after": 0.3789 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8983, "after": 0.9081 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.9238, "after": 0.9334 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.1861, "after": 2.1787 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.366, "after": 0.3733 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.2289, "after": 0.2229 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3297, "goals": 0.3733, "goal_rate": 0.3733, "shots_on_target": 0.9081, "total_shots": 2.1959, "expected_assists": 0.0374, "key_pass": 0.5821, "rating": 6.7928, "minutes": 69.91, "total_pass": 7.8241, "accurate_pass": 5.345, "duels_won": 3.4619, "total_long_balls": 0.1654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2077, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7285, "crosses_total": 0.1538, "crosses_accurate": 0.1406, "touches": 19.7145, "possession_lost": 7.4356, "dispossessed": 0.3058, "duels_lost": 5.2196, "aerial_lost": 3.7302, "total_contest": 0.8989, "won_contest": 0.5099, "ball_recovery": 0.7928, "challenges_lost": 0.6292, "fouls": 0.1779, "fouls_drawn": 0.9334, "assists": 0.2229, "assist_rate": 0.2229, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6043, "tackles": 0.6043, "clearances": 0.5004, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4896, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3475, "offsides": 0.3789, "ball_carries": 4.0731, "total_progression": 9.614, "progressive_carries": 0.4981, "shots_off_target": 1.2878 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2981, "goals": 0.3375, "goal_rate": 0.3375, "shots_on_target": 0.8211, "total_shots": 1.9855, "expected_assists": 0.0374, "key_pass": 0.5821, "rating": 6.7928, "minutes": 69.91, "total_pass": 7.8241, "accurate_pass": 5.345, "duels_won": 3.4619, "total_long_balls": 0.1654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2077, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7285, "crosses_total": 0.1538, "crosses_accurate": 0.1406, "touches": 19.7145, "possession_lost": 7.4356, "dispossessed": 0.3058, "duels_lost": 5.2196, "aerial_lost": 3.7302, "total_contest": 0.8989, "won_contest": 0.5099, "ball_recovery": 0.7928, "challenges_lost": 0.6292, "fouls": 0.1779, "fouls_drawn": 0.9334, "assists": 0.2229, "assist_rate": 0.2229, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6043, "tackles": 0.6043, "clearances": 0.5004, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4896, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3142, "offsides": 0.3789, "ball_carries": 4.0731, "total_progression": 9.614, "progressive_carries": 0.4981, "shots_off_target": 1.1644, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9042, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "opponent_faced": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9042, "skill_edge": -0.0692, "height_edge": 0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.4951, "defender_skill": 0.6488, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Calvin Bassey", "market_value": 29000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7736 }, { "player": "Timothy Castagne", "market_value": 7600000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.524 } ], "xg_override": 0.2981 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.1959, "after": 1.9855 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.2878, "after": 1.1644 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.9081, "after": 0.8211 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3733, "after": 0.3375 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.3475, "after": 0.3142 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3297, "after": 0.2981 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.4499, xG scale 0.9725, xA scale 1.4098, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2899, "goal_rate": 0.3375, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8211, "total_shots": 1.9855, "expected_assists": 0.0527, "key_pass": 0.5821, "rating": 6.7928, "minutes": 69.91, "total_pass": 7.8241, "accurate_pass": 5.345, "duels_won": 3.4619, "total_long_balls": 0.1654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2077, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7285, "crosses_total": 0.1538, "crosses_accurate": 0.1406, "touches": 19.7145, "possession_lost": 7.4356, "dispossessed": 0.3058, "duels_lost": 5.2196, "aerial_lost": 3.7302, "total_contest": 0.8989, "won_contest": 0.5099, "ball_recovery": 0.7928, "challenges_lost": 0.6292, "fouls": 0.1779, "fouls_drawn": 0.9334, "assist_rate": 0.2229, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6043, "tackles": 0.6043, "clearances": 0.5004, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4896, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3056, "offsides": 0.3789, "ball_carries": 4.0731, "total_progression": 9.614, "progressive_carries": 0.4981, "shots_off_target": 1.1644, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9042, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "opponent_faced": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1132, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4499, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6501, "team_expected_assists": 0.9165, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9725, "xa_scale": 1.4098, "opponent_lambda": 1.302, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2981, "after": 0.2899 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0374, "after": 0.0527 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2899, "goal_rate": 0.3375, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8211, "total_shots": 1.9855, "expected_assists": 0.0527, "key_pass": 0.5821, "rating": 6.7928, "minutes": 69.91, "total_pass": 7.8241, "accurate_pass": 5.345, "duels_won": 3.4619, "total_long_balls": 0.1654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2077, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7285, "crosses_total": 0.1538, "crosses_accurate": 0.1406, "touches": 19.7145, "possession_lost": 7.4356, "dispossessed": 0.3058, "duels_lost": 5.2196, "aerial_lost": 3.7302, "total_contest": 0.8989, "won_contest": 0.5099, "ball_recovery": 0.7928, "challenges_lost": 0.6292, "fouls": 0.1779, "fouls_drawn": 0.9334, "assist_rate": 0.2229, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6043, "tackles": 0.6043, "clearances": 0.5004, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4896, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3056, "offsides": 0.3789, "ball_carries": 4.0731, "total_progression": 9.614, "progressive_carries": 0.4981, "shots_off_target": 1.1644, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9042, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "opponent_faced": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1132, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3501, "fifa_rank": 2674.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2899, "goal_rate": 0.3375, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8211, "total_shots": 1.9855, "expected_assists": 0.0527, "key_pass": 0.5821, "rating": 6.7928, "minutes": 69.91, "total_pass": 7.8241, "accurate_pass": 5.345, "duels_won": 3.4619, "total_long_balls": 0.1654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2077, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7285, "crosses_total": 0.1538, "crosses_accurate": 0.1406, "touches": 19.7145, "possession_lost": 7.4356, "dispossessed": 0.3058, "duels_lost": 5.2196, "aerial_lost": 3.7302, "total_contest": 0.8989, "won_contest": 0.5099, "ball_recovery": 0.7928, "challenges_lost": 0.6292, "fouls": 0.1779, "fouls_drawn": 0.9334, "assist_rate": 0.2229, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6043, "tackles": 0.6043, "clearances": 0.5004, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4896, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3056, "offsides": 0.3789, "ball_carries": 4.0731, "total_progression": 9.614, "progressive_carries": 0.4981, "shots_off_target": 1.1644, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9042, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "opponent_faced": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2517, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1132, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2517, "scorer_weight": 0.3227, "squad_weight_total": 1.4921, "weight_share": 0.2163, "finishing_factor": 1.1132, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Leif Davis", "weight": 0.389, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.389, "runner_up": "Emersonn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3227 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2899, "goal_rate": 0.3375, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8211, "total_shots": 1.9855, "expected_assists": 0.0527, "key_pass": 0.5821, "rating": 6.7928, "minutes": 69.91, "total_pass": 7.8241, "accurate_pass": 5.345, "duels_won": 3.4619, "total_long_balls": 0.1654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2077, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7285, "crosses_total": 0.1538, "crosses_accurate": 0.1406, "touches": 19.7145, "possession_lost": 7.4356, "dispossessed": 0.3058, "duels_lost": 5.2196, "aerial_lost": 3.7302, "total_contest": 0.8989, "won_contest": 0.5099, "ball_recovery": 0.7928, "challenges_lost": 0.6292, "fouls": 0.1779, "fouls_drawn": 0.9334, "assist_rate": 0.2229, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6043, "tackles": 0.6043, "clearances": 0.5004, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4896, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3056, "offsides": 0.3789, "ball_carries": 4.0731, "total_progression": 9.614, "progressive_carries": 0.4981, "shots_off_target": 1.1644, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9042, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "opponent_faced": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2517, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0513, "finishing_factor": 1.1132, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0513, "provider_weight": 0.0659, "squad_weight_total": 0.9377, "weight_share": 0.0703, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julio Enciso", "weight": 0.1888, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1888, "runner_up": "Saša Lukić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1387, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Leif Davis" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jaden Philogene-Bidace": { "player_id": 1014461, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 181, "market_value": 18800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1349, "goal_rate": 0.1555, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0649, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 6.3679, "dispossessed": 0.9413, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0074, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9568, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "opponent_faced": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1262, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0628, "finishing_factor": 1.089, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363651, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0559, "expected_assists": 0.006, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.015, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 82, "combined_rank_score": 113.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 140.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7171, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Marc Cucurella", "ranking": 77 }, { "player_name": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "ranking": 78 }, { "player_name": "Thibaut Courtois", "ranking": 79 }, { "player_name": "Otávio Costa", "ranking": 80 }, { "player_name": "Marc Guéhi", "ranking": 81 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Valdívia", "ranking": 83 }, { "player_name": "Bremer", "ranking": 84 }, { "player_name": "Nico Schlotterbeck", "ranking": 85 }, { "player_name": "Arturo Vidal", "ranking": 86 }, { "player_name": "Ousmane Dembélé", "ranking": 87 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.375, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0244, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 2 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1415, "goals": 0.1586, "goal_rate": 0.1586, "shots_on_target": 0.5487, "total_shots": 1.4273, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "key_pass": 0.727, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 9.3784, "accurate_pass": 7.4595, "duels_won": 1.6216, "total_long_balls": 0.5405, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5405, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0, "crosses_total": 1.3784, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7568, "possession_lost": 6.2162, "dispossessed": 0.9189, "duels_lost": 3.4595, "aerial_lost": 0.4595, "total_contest": 2.0811, "won_contest": 1.0811, "ball_recovery": 1.9189, "challenges_lost": 0.5405, "fouls": 0.5405, "fouls_drawn": 0.5405, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0077, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.4595, "total_progression": 21.0071, "progressive_carries": 1.0, "shots_off_target": 0.8786 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 6.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0371, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 5.4595, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 4.0, "accuratePass": 7.4595, "totalShots": 1.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.14150018990039825, "model_output": 0.1415, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0636 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0544 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.008 } ], "others": -0.0299, "total": 0.1415, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.277463 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.232302 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.087913 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.061196 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.045745 } ], "others_margin": -0.191083 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.15863454341888428, "model_output": 0.1586, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0754 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0471 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": -0.053, "total": 0.1586, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.314801 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.184865 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.111728 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.074364 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.054704 } ], "others_margin": -0.288157 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5487268567085266, "model_output": 0.5487, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1648 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0655 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0535 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0319 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0241 } ], "others": -0.0419, "total": 0.5487, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.267696 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.097995 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.087788 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.05332 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.039995 } ], "others_margin": -0.073598 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.427330493927002, "model_output": 1.4273, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4158 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1323 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0996 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0379 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.034 } ], "others": -0.0634, "total": 1.4273, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.415758 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.132323 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.09956 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.037864 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.033962 } ], "others_margin": -0.063425 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.044911038130521774, "model_output": 0.0449, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0054 } ], "others": -0.0115, "total": 0.0449, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.289424 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.269207 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.135956 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.117006 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.100502 } ], "others_margin": -0.226373 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7269876599311829, "model_output": 0.727, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2577 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0766 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0627 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0596 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0582 } ], "others": -0.1922, "total": 0.727, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.323826 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.085834 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.070719 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.062883 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.061346 } ], "others_margin": -0.234534 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.717052459716797, "model_output": 6.7171, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0591 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0263 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0123 } ], "others": -0.053, "total": 6.7171, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05905 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026336 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.021579 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.015632 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.012257 } ], "others_margin": -0.052868 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0244, quality 0.619)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.145, "goals": 0.1625, "goal_rate": 0.1625, "shots_on_target": 0.5621, "total_shots": 1.4622, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.7447, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 9.6072, "accurate_pass": 7.6415, "duels_won": 1.6612, "total_long_balls": 0.5537, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5537, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5927, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0976, "crosses_total": 1.412, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.2145, "possession_lost": 6.3679, "dispossessed": 0.9413, "duels_lost": 3.5439, "aerial_lost": 0.4707, "total_contest": 2.1319, "won_contest": 1.1075, "ball_recovery": 1.9657, "challenges_lost": 0.5537, "fouls": 0.5537, "fouls_drawn": 0.5537, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0079, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.6415, "total_progression": 21.5197, "progressive_carries": 1.0244, "shots_off_target": 0.9 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18800000, "quality_factor": 0.6191, "boost_factor": 1.0244, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.145, "goals": 0.1625, "goal_rate": 0.1625, "shots_on_target": 0.5621, "total_shots": 1.4622, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.7447, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 9.6072, "accurate_pass": 7.6415, "duels_won": 1.6612, "total_long_balls": 0.5537, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5537, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5927, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0976, "crosses_total": 1.412, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.2145, "possession_lost": 6.3679, "dispossessed": 0.9413, "duels_lost": 3.5439, "aerial_lost": 0.4707, "total_contest": 2.1319, "won_contest": 1.1075, "ball_recovery": 1.9657, "challenges_lost": 0.5537, "fouls": 0.5537, "fouls_drawn": 0.5537, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0079, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.6415, "total_progression": 21.5197, "progressive_carries": 1.0244, "shots_off_target": 0.9 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1387, "goals": 0.1555, "goal_rate": 0.1555, "shots_on_target": 0.5378, "total_shots": 1.399, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.7447, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 9.6072, "accurate_pass": 7.6415, "duels_won": 1.6612, "total_long_balls": 0.5537, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5537, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5927, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0976, "crosses_total": 1.412, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.2145, "possession_lost": 6.3679, "dispossessed": 0.9413, "duels_lost": 3.5439, "aerial_lost": 0.4707, "total_contest": 2.1319, "won_contest": 1.1075, "ball_recovery": 1.9657, "challenges_lost": 0.5537, "fouls": 0.5537, "fouls_drawn": 0.5537, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0076, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.6415, "total_progression": 21.5197, "progressive_carries": 1.0244, "shots_off_target": 0.8611, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9568, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "opponent_faced": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9568, "skill_edge": -0.0134, "height_edge": -0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.6191, "defender_skill": 0.6488, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Calvin Bassey", "market_value": 29000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7736 }, { "player": "Timothy Castagne", "market_value": 7600000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.524 } ], "xg_override": 0.1387 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4622, "after": 1.399 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9, "after": 0.8611 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5621, "after": 0.5378 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1625, "after": 0.1555 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.145, "after": 0.1387 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.4499, xG scale 0.9725, xA scale 1.4098, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1349, "goal_rate": 0.1555, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5378, "total_shots": 1.399, "expected_assists": 0.0649, "key_pass": 0.7447, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 9.6072, "accurate_pass": 7.6415, "duels_won": 1.6612, "total_long_balls": 0.5537, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5537, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5927, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0976, "crosses_total": 1.412, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.2145, "possession_lost": 6.3679, "dispossessed": 0.9413, "duels_lost": 3.5439, "aerial_lost": 0.4707, "total_contest": 2.1319, "won_contest": 1.1075, "ball_recovery": 1.9657, "challenges_lost": 0.5537, "fouls": 0.5537, "fouls_drawn": 0.5537, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0074, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.6415, "total_progression": 21.5197, "progressive_carries": 1.0244, "shots_off_target": 0.8611, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9568, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "opponent_faced": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.089, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4499, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6501, "team_expected_assists": 0.9165, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9725, "xa_scale": 1.4098, "opponent_lambda": 1.302, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.046, "after": 0.0649 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1349, "goal_rate": 0.1555, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5378, "total_shots": 1.399, "expected_assists": 0.0649, "key_pass": 0.7447, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 9.6072, "accurate_pass": 7.6415, "duels_won": 1.6612, "total_long_balls": 0.5537, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5537, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5927, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0976, "crosses_total": 1.412, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.2145, "possession_lost": 6.3679, "dispossessed": 0.9413, "duels_lost": 3.5439, "aerial_lost": 0.4707, "total_contest": 2.1319, "won_contest": 1.1075, "ball_recovery": 1.9657, "challenges_lost": 0.5537, "fouls": 0.5537, "fouls_drawn": 0.5537, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0074, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.6415, "total_progression": 21.5197, "progressive_carries": 1.0244, "shots_off_target": 0.8611, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9568, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "opponent_faced": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.089, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 82, "fifa_rank": 140.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1349, "goal_rate": 0.1555, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5378, "total_shots": 1.399, "expected_assists": 0.0649, "key_pass": 0.7447, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 9.6072, "accurate_pass": 7.6415, "duels_won": 1.6612, "total_long_balls": 0.5537, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5537, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5927, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0976, "crosses_total": 1.412, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.2145, "possession_lost": 6.3679, "dispossessed": 0.9413, "duels_lost": 3.5439, "aerial_lost": 0.4707, "total_contest": 2.1319, "won_contest": 1.1075, "ball_recovery": 1.9657, "challenges_lost": 0.5537, "fouls": 0.5537, "fouls_drawn": 0.5537, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0074, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.6415, "total_progression": 21.5197, "progressive_carries": 1.0244, "shots_off_target": 0.8611, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9568, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "opponent_faced": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1262, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.089, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1262, "scorer_weight": 0.1469, "squad_weight_total": 1.4921, "weight_share": 0.0985, "finishing_factor": 1.089, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Leif Davis", "weight": 0.389, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.389, "runner_up": "Emersonn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3227 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1349, "goal_rate": 0.1555, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5378, "total_shots": 1.399, "expected_assists": 0.0649, "key_pass": 0.7447, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 9.6072, "accurate_pass": 7.6415, "duels_won": 1.6612, "total_long_balls": 0.5537, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5537, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5927, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0976, "crosses_total": 1.412, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.2145, "possession_lost": 6.3679, "dispossessed": 0.9413, "duels_lost": 3.5439, "aerial_lost": 0.4707, "total_contest": 2.1319, "won_contest": 1.1075, "ball_recovery": 1.9657, "challenges_lost": 0.5537, "fouls": 0.5537, "fouls_drawn": 0.5537, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0074, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.6415, "total_progression": 21.5197, "progressive_carries": 1.0244, "shots_off_target": 0.8611, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9568, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "opponent_faced": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1262, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0628, "finishing_factor": 1.089, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0628, "provider_weight": 0.0519, "squad_weight_total": 0.9377, "weight_share": 0.0554, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julio Enciso", "weight": 0.1888, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1888, "runner_up": "Saša Lukić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1387, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Leif Davis" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jack Clarke": { "player_id": 921005, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 47, "height": 181, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1665, "goal_rate": 0.2379, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1399, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8948, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 7.0944, "dispossessed": 1.4192, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.308, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 47, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9712, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "opponent_faced": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1534, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1306, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363651, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3262, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1467, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363261, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0475, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1025, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3162, "combined_rank_score": 1128.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 52.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 2204.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8948, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jack Clarke", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jhon Durán", "ranking": 3157 }, { "player_name": "Unai López", "ranking": 3158 }, { "player_name": "Clément Lenglet", "ranking": 3159 }, { "player_name": "Albion Rrahmani", "ranking": 3160 }, { "player_name": "Leon Bailey", "ranking": 3161 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Vitor Reis", "ranking": 3163 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Fernández", "ranking": 3164 }, { "player_name": "Žan Vipotnik", "ranking": 3165 }, { "player_name": "Mykhailo Mudryk", "ranking": 3166 }, { "player_name": "Diego López", "ranking": 3167 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.502, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.502, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0226, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 20.0, "goals_per90": 5.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 9.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 50.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Ipswich Town, rel: 0.01, gls/90: 5.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1724, "goals": 0.2218, "goal_rate": 0.2218, "shots_on_target": 0.522, "total_shots": 1.3895, "expected_assists": 0.097, "key_pass": 1.0752, "rating": 6.8948, "minutes": 72.31, "total_pass": 19.9649, "accurate_pass": 16.1097, "duels_won": 1.6206, "total_long_balls": 0.9469, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7202, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.9225, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8275, "crosses_total": 0.8473, "crosses_accurate": 0.3138, "touches": 26.9887, "possession_lost": 6.9376, "dispossessed": 1.3878, "duels_lost": 2.4218, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3138, "won_contest": 0.3138, "ball_recovery": 1.3138, "challenges_lost": 0.5405, "fouls": 0.4935, "fouls_drawn": 0.2667, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5405, "tackles_won": 0.4595, "tackles": 0.4595, "clearances": 0.3138, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3189, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.2516, "total_progression": 46.0533, "progressive_carries": 2.2667, "shots_off_target": 0.8675 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0697, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 13.9225, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 10.8275, "accuratePass": 16.1097, "totalShots": 0.8789 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.17241452634334564, "model_output": 0.1724, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0717 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0563 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0089 } ], "others": -0.0305, "total": 0.1724, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.307661 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.233272 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.053321 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.046658 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.045005 } ], "others_margin": -0.162592 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.221751406788826, "model_output": 0.2218, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0887 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0437 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0459, "total": 0.2218, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.361561 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.161861 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.054121 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.051473 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.032087 } ], "others_margin": -0.188541 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5219655632972717, "model_output": 0.522, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1611 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0929 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0454 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0369 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0257 } ], "others": -0.049, "total": 0.522, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.262385 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.142832 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.077985 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.063833 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.044067 } ], "others_margin": -0.089691 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.3894426822662354, "model_output": 1.3894, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4373 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2095 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0589 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0584 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0337 } ], "others": -0.1335, "total": 1.3894, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.43725 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.209483 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.058892 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.058445 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.033723 } ], "others_margin": -0.133417 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.09700515866279602, "model_output": 0.097, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0078 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0081 } ], "others": 0.0061, "total": 0.097, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.158494 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.109243 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.107365 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.095958 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.093674 } ], "others_margin": 0.065216 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.0752356052398682, "model_output": 1.0752, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1277 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0487 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0512 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0448 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0387 } ], "others": 0.1797, "total": 1.0752, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.173476 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.058945 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.058517 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.051022 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.044195 } ], "others_margin": 0.182987 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.894837856292725, "model_output": 6.8948, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.066 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0113 } ], "others": 0.0376, "total": 6.8948, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.065979 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.016455 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.016378 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.01517 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.011271 } ], "others_margin": 0.037764 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0226, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1763, "goals": 0.2268, "goal_rate": 0.2268, "shots_on_target": 0.5338, "total_shots": 1.4209, "expected_assists": 0.0992, "key_pass": 1.0995, "rating": 6.8948, "minutes": 72.31, "total_pass": 20.4161, "accurate_pass": 16.4738, "duels_won": 1.6572, "total_long_balls": 0.9683, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7365, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0722, "crosses_total": 0.8664, "crosses_accurate": 0.3209, "touches": 27.5986, "possession_lost": 7.0944, "dispossessed": 1.4192, "duels_lost": 2.4765, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3209, "won_contest": 0.3209, "ball_recovery": 1.3435, "challenges_lost": 0.5527, "fouls": 0.5047, "fouls_drawn": 0.2727, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5527, "tackles_won": 0.4699, "tackles": 0.4699, "clearances": 0.3209, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3261, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.4155, "total_progression": 47.0941, "progressive_carries": 2.3179, "shots_off_target": 0.8871 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0226, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0048)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1763, "goals": 0.245, "goal_rate": 0.245, "shots_on_target": 0.5486, "total_shots": 1.4488, "expected_assists": 0.0992, "key_pass": 1.0995, "rating": 6.8948, "minutes": 72.31, "total_pass": 20.4161, "accurate_pass": 16.4738, "duels_won": 1.6572, "total_long_balls": 0.9683, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7365, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0722, "crosses_total": 0.8622, "crosses_accurate": 0.3209, "touches": 27.5986, "possession_lost": 7.0944, "dispossessed": 1.4192, "duels_lost": 2.4765, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3209, "won_contest": 0.3209, "ball_recovery": 1.3435, "challenges_lost": 0.5527, "fouls": 0.5023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2714, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.55, "tackles_won": 0.4869, "tackles": 0.4699, "clearances": 0.3209, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3261, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.4155, "total_progression": 47.0941, "progressive_carries": 2.3179, "shots_off_target": 0.8871 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0048, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8034, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4209, "after": 1.4488 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2268, "after": 0.245 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.4699, "after": 0.4869 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5338, "after": 0.5486 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1763, "goals": 0.245, "goal_rate": 0.245, "shots_on_target": 0.5486, "total_shots": 1.4488, "expected_assists": 0.0992, "key_pass": 1.0995, "rating": 6.8948, "minutes": 72.31, "total_pass": 20.4161, "accurate_pass": 16.4738, "duels_won": 1.6572, "total_long_balls": 0.9683, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7365, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0722, "crosses_total": 0.8622, "crosses_accurate": 0.3209, "touches": 27.5986, "possession_lost": 7.0944, "dispossessed": 1.4192, "duels_lost": 2.4765, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3209, "won_contest": 0.3209, "ball_recovery": 1.3435, "challenges_lost": 0.5527, "fouls": 0.5023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2714, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.55, "tackles_won": 0.4699, "tackles": 0.4699, "clearances": 0.3209, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3261, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.4155, "total_progression": 47.0941, "progressive_carries": 2.3179, "shots_off_target": 0.8871 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1712, "goals": 0.2379, "goal_rate": 0.2379, "shots_on_target": 0.5328, "total_shots": 1.4071, "expected_assists": 0.0992, "key_pass": 1.0995, "rating": 6.8948, "minutes": 72.31, "total_pass": 20.4161, "accurate_pass": 16.4738, "duels_won": 1.6572, "total_long_balls": 0.9683, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7365, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0722, "crosses_total": 0.8622, "crosses_accurate": 0.3209, "touches": 27.5986, "possession_lost": 7.0944, "dispossessed": 1.4192, "duels_lost": 2.4765, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3209, "won_contest": 0.3209, "ball_recovery": 1.3435, "challenges_lost": 0.5527, "fouls": 0.5023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2714, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.55, "tackles_won": 0.4699, "tackles": 0.4699, "clearances": 0.3209, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3167, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.4155, "total_progression": 47.0941, "progressive_carries": 2.3179, "shots_off_target": 0.8616, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9712, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "opponent_faced": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9712, "skill_edge": -0.0036, "height_edge": -0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.6408, "defender_skill": 0.6488, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Calvin Bassey", "market_value": 29000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7736 }, { "player": "Timothy Castagne", "market_value": 7600000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.524 } ], "xg_override": 0.1712 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4488, "after": 1.4071 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.8871, "after": 0.8616 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5486, "after": 0.5328 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.3261, "after": 0.3167 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.245, "after": 0.2379 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1763, "after": 0.1712 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.4499, xG scale 0.9725, xA scale 1.4098, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1665, "goal_rate": 0.2379, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5328, "total_shots": 1.4071, "expected_assists": 0.1399, "key_pass": 1.0995, "rating": 6.8948, "minutes": 72.31, "total_pass": 20.4161, "accurate_pass": 16.4738, "duels_won": 1.6572, "total_long_balls": 0.9683, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7365, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0722, "crosses_total": 0.8622, "crosses_accurate": 0.3209, "touches": 27.5986, "possession_lost": 7.0944, "dispossessed": 1.4192, "duels_lost": 2.4765, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3209, "won_contest": 0.3209, "ball_recovery": 1.3435, "challenges_lost": 0.5527, "fouls": 0.5023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2714, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.55, "tackles_won": 0.4699, "tackles": 0.4699, "clearances": 0.3209, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.308, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.4155, "total_progression": 47.0941, "progressive_carries": 2.3179, "shots_off_target": 0.8616, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9712, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "opponent_faced": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4499, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6501, "team_expected_assists": 0.9165, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9725, "xa_scale": 1.4098, "opponent_lambda": 1.302, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0992, "after": 0.1399 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1665, "goal_rate": 0.2379, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5328, "total_shots": 1.4071, "expected_assists": 0.1399, "key_pass": 1.0995, "rating": 6.8948, "minutes": 72.31, "total_pass": 20.4161, "accurate_pass": 16.4738, "duels_won": 1.6572, "total_long_balls": 0.9683, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7365, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0722, "crosses_total": 0.8622, "crosses_accurate": 0.3209, "touches": 27.5986, "possession_lost": 7.0944, "dispossessed": 1.4192, "duels_lost": 2.4765, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3209, "won_contest": 0.3209, "ball_recovery": 1.3435, "challenges_lost": 0.5527, "fouls": 0.5023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2714, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.55, "tackles_won": 0.4699, "tackles": 0.4699, "clearances": 0.3209, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.308, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.4155, "total_progression": 47.0941, "progressive_carries": 2.3179, "shots_off_target": 0.8616, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9712, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "opponent_faced": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3162, "fifa_rank": 2204.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1665, "goal_rate": 0.2379, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5328, "total_shots": 1.4071, "expected_assists": 0.1399, "key_pass": 1.0995, "rating": 6.8948, "minutes": 72.31, "total_pass": 20.4161, "accurate_pass": 16.4738, "duels_won": 1.6572, "total_long_balls": 0.9683, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7365, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0722, "crosses_total": 0.8622, "crosses_accurate": 0.3209, "touches": 27.5986, "possession_lost": 7.0944, "dispossessed": 1.4192, "duels_lost": 2.4765, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3209, "won_contest": 0.3209, "ball_recovery": 1.3435, "challenges_lost": 0.5527, "fouls": 0.5023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2714, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.55, "tackles_won": 0.4699, "tackles": 0.4699, "clearances": 0.3209, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.308, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.4155, "total_progression": 47.0941, "progressive_carries": 2.3179, "shots_off_target": 0.8616, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9712, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "opponent_faced": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1534, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1534, "scorer_weight": 0.2081, "squad_weight_total": 1.4921, "weight_share": 0.1395, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Leif Davis", "weight": 0.389, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.389, "runner_up": "Emersonn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3227 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1665, "goal_rate": 0.2379, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5328, "total_shots": 1.4071, "expected_assists": 0.1399, "key_pass": 1.0995, "rating": 6.8948, "minutes": 72.31, "total_pass": 20.4161, "accurate_pass": 16.4738, "duels_won": 1.6572, "total_long_balls": 0.9683, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7365, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0722, "crosses_total": 0.8622, "crosses_accurate": 0.3209, "touches": 27.5986, "possession_lost": 7.0944, "dispossessed": 1.4192, "duels_lost": 2.4765, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3209, "won_contest": 0.3209, "ball_recovery": 1.3435, "challenges_lost": 0.5527, "fouls": 0.5023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2714, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.55, "tackles_won": 0.4699, "tackles": 0.4699, "clearances": 0.3209, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.308, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.4155, "total_progression": 47.0941, "progressive_carries": 2.3179, "shots_off_target": 0.8616, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9712, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "opponent_faced": "Calvin Bassey, Timothy Castagne", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1534, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1306, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1306, "provider_weight": 0.1119, "squad_weight_total": 0.9377, "weight_share": 0.1194, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julio Enciso", "weight": 0.1888, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1888, "runner_up": "Saša Lukić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1387, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Leif Davis" ] } ] } } ] }, "Exequiel Palacios": { "player_id": 822600, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 177, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0695, "assist_rate": 0.0494, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0229, "goal_rate": 0.0305, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.9646, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 54, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22, "total_opp_half_passes": 33, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 6.9394, "dispossessed": 0.4004, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9118, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sander Berge", "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0226, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0671, "finishing_factor": 1.0952, "creation_factor": 1.001, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363651, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 52, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 62, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363261, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 12 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 340, "combined_rank_score": 225.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 164.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.28, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 287.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9646, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Exequiel Palacios", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Manuel Akanji", "ranking": 335 }, { "player_name": "Phil Foden", "ranking": 336 }, { "player_name": "Charles Aránguiz", "ranking": 337 }, { "player_name": "Steven Benda", "ranking": 338 }, { "player_name": "Iker Monreal Agundez", "ranking": 339 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Manuel Locatelli", "ranking": 341 }, { "player_name": "Zafarmurod Abdurakhmatov", "ranking": 342 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Requena", "ranking": 343 }, { "player_name": "Lee Jong-Eon", "ranking": 344 }, { "player_name": "Julian Ryerson", "ranking": 345 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.503, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.503, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0301, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 29.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.02 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Ipswich Town, rel: 0.02, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5709, "expected_assists": 0.0478, "assists": 0.0484, "assist_rate": 0.0484, "expected_goals": 0.025, "goals": 0.0327, "goal_rate": 0.0327, "shots_on_target": 0.1165, "total_shots": 0.4432, "rating": 6.9646, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 56.1652, "accurate_pass": 52.2148, "duels_won": 4.0155, "total_long_balls": 2.6025, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9912, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.8358, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.2711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.379, "crosses_total": 0.3887, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.1069, "possession_lost": 6.7366, "dispossessed": 0.3887, "duels_lost": 2.7191, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2809, "tackles_won": 1.2809, "tackles": 2.5034, "clearances": 1.3217, "total_contest": 0.3887, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6113, "fouls": 1.3304, "fouls_drawn": 1.5121, "blocks": 0.6696, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.2002, "total_progression": 63.1807, "progressive_carries": 0.8921, "shots_off_target": 0.3267 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.0, "creative_index": 0.2732, "expectedGoals": 0.0, "expectedAssists": 0.0246, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5709060430526733, "model_output": 0.5709, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1209 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.1199 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.1042 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0756 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0548 } ], "others": -0.1913, "total": 0.5709, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12785 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.126713 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.124918 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.101523 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.074614 } ], "others_margin": -0.289027 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04782668128609657, "model_output": 0.0478, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0024 } ], "others": -0.0134, "total": 0.0478, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.238247 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.225308 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.140584 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.055318 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.039979 } ], "others_margin": -0.245814 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.04838215187191963, "model_output": 0.0484, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0074 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0036 } ], "others": -0.0175, "total": 0.0484, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.124859 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.093669 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.087478 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.085647 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.053928 } ], "others_margin": -0.307975 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.025029849261045456, "model_output": 0.025, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0328 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0071 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0037 } ], "others": -0.0142, "total": 0.025, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.426152 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.323405 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.172186 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.133232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.089261 } ], "others_margin": -0.449997 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.03265779837965965, "model_output": 0.0327, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0046 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0188, "total": 0.0327, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.269545 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.22786 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.14234 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.085351 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.08433 } ], "others_margin": -0.456534 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1164529100060463, "model_output": 0.1165, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0929 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0481 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.025 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0128 } ], "others": -0.058, "total": 0.1165, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.338016 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.23364 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.104753 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.070914 } ], "others_margin": -0.404222 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4431404173374176, "model_output": 0.4431, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2908 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1099 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0519 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0476 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0392 } ], "others": -0.2278, "total": 0.4431, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.290828 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.109931 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.0519 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.047605 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.039248 } ], "others_margin": -0.227674 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.96462345123291, "model_output": 6.9646, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1069 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.031 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0166 } ], "others": -0.0528, "total": 6.9646, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.106867 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030984 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.026374 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.020809 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016613 } ], "others_margin": -0.052669 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0301, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5881, "expected_assists": 0.0493, "assists": 0.0498, "assist_rate": 0.0498, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "goals": 0.0336, "goal_rate": 0.0336, "shots_on_target": 0.12, "total_shots": 0.4565, "rating": 6.9646, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 57.8558, "accurate_pass": 53.7865, "duels_won": 4.1364, "total_long_balls": 2.6808, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0511, "total_own_half_passes": 24.6133, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4931, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.2425, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.2934, "crosses_total": 0.4004, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.2171, "possession_lost": 6.9394, "dispossessed": 0.4004, "duels_lost": 2.8009, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.3195, "tackles_won": 1.3195, "tackles": 2.5788, "clearances": 1.3615, "total_contest": 0.4004, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6297, "fouls": 1.3704, "fouls_drawn": 1.5576, "blocks": 0.6898, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.748, "total_progression": 65.0824, "progressive_carries": 0.919, "shots_off_target": 0.3365 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0301, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5881, "expected_assists": 0.0493, "assists": 0.0494, "assist_rate": 0.0494, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "goals": 0.0334, "goal_rate": 0.0334, "shots_on_target": 0.1191, "total_shots": 0.4532, "rating": 6.9646, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 57.8558, "accurate_pass": 53.7865, "duels_won": 4.1364, "total_long_balls": 2.6808, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0511, "total_own_half_passes": 24.6133, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4931, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.2425, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.2934, "crosses_total": 0.3975, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.2171, "possession_lost": 6.9394, "dispossessed": 0.4004, "duels_lost": 2.8009, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.3551, "tackles_won": 1.3325, "tackles": 2.5788, "clearances": 1.3615, "total_contest": 0.4004, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6297, "fouls": 1.383, "fouls_drawn": 1.5689, "blocks": 0.6898, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.748, "total_progression": 65.0824, "progressive_carries": 0.919, "shots_off_target": 0.3365 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9364, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.3195, "after": 1.3551 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.3195, "after": 1.3325 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.3704, "after": 1.383 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.5576, "after": 1.5689 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5881, "expected_assists": 0.0493, "assists": 0.0494, "assist_rate": 0.0494, "expected_goals": 0.0258, "goals": 0.0334, "goal_rate": 0.0334, "shots_on_target": 0.1191, "total_shots": 0.4556, "rating": 6.9646, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 57.8558, "accurate_pass": 53.7865, "duels_won": 4.1364, "total_long_balls": 2.6808, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0511, "total_own_half_passes": 24.6133, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4931, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.2425, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.2934, "crosses_total": 0.3975, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.2171, "possession_lost": 6.9394, "dispossessed": 0.4004, "duels_lost": 2.8009, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.3551, "tackles_won": 1.3325, "tackles": 2.5788, "clearances": 1.3615, "total_contest": 0.4004, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6297, "fouls": 1.383, "fouls_drawn": 1.5689, "blocks": 0.6898, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.748, "total_progression": 65.0824, "progressive_carries": 0.919, "shots_off_target": 0.3365 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5881, "expected_assists": 0.0493, "assists": 0.0494, "assist_rate": 0.0494, "expected_goals": 0.0235, "goals": 0.0305, "goal_rate": 0.0305, "shots_on_target": 0.1086, "total_shots": 0.4154, "rating": 6.9646, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 57.8558, "accurate_pass": 53.7865, "duels_won": 4.1364, "total_long_balls": 2.6808, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0511, "total_own_half_passes": 24.6133, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4931, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.2425, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.2934, "crosses_total": 0.3975, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.2171, "possession_lost": 6.9394, "dispossessed": 0.4004, "duels_lost": 2.8009, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.3551, "tackles_won": 1.3325, "tackles": 2.5788, "clearances": 1.3615, "total_contest": 0.4004, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6297, "fouls": 1.383, "fouls_drawn": 1.5689, "blocks": 0.6898, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.748, "total_progression": 65.0824, "progressive_carries": 0.919, "shots_off_target": 0.3068, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9118, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sander Berge", "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9118, "skill_edge": 0.0, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.7219, "defender_skill": 0.7219, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Sander Berge", "market_value": 26000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.7219 } ], "xg_override": 0.0235 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.4556, "after": 0.4154 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.3365, "after": 0.3068 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1191, "after": 0.1086 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.4499, xG scale 0.9725, xA scale 1.4098, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5881, "expected_assists": 0.0695, "assist_rate": 0.0494, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0229, "goal_rate": 0.0305, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1086, "total_shots": 0.4154, "rating": 6.9646, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 57.8558, "accurate_pass": 53.7865, "duels_won": 4.1364, "total_long_balls": 2.6808, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0511, "total_own_half_passes": 24.6133, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4931, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.2425, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.2934, "crosses_total": 0.3975, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.2171, "possession_lost": 6.9394, "dispossessed": 0.4004, "duels_lost": 2.8009, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.3551, "tackles_won": 1.3325, "tackles": 2.5788, "clearances": 1.3615, "total_contest": 0.4004, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6297, "fouls": 1.383, "fouls_drawn": 1.5689, "blocks": 0.6898, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.748, "total_progression": 65.0824, "progressive_carries": 0.919, "shots_off_target": 0.3068, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9118, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sander Berge", "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0952, "creation_factor": 1.001 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4499, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6501, "team_expected_assists": 0.9165, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9725, "xa_scale": 1.4098, "opponent_lambda": 1.302, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0493, "after": 0.0695 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5881, "expected_assists": 0.0695, "assist_rate": 0.0494, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0229, "goal_rate": 0.0305, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1086, "total_shots": 0.4154, "rating": 6.9646, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 57.8558, "accurate_pass": 53.7865, "duels_won": 4.1364, "total_long_balls": 2.6808, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0511, "total_own_half_passes": 24.6133, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4931, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.2425, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.2934, "crosses_total": 0.3975, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.2171, "possession_lost": 6.9394, "dispossessed": 0.4004, "duels_lost": 2.8009, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.3551, "tackles_won": 1.3325, "tackles": 2.5788, "clearances": 1.3615, "total_contest": 0.4004, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6297, "fouls": 1.383, "fouls_drawn": 1.5689, "blocks": 0.6898, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.748, "total_progression": 65.0824, "progressive_carries": 0.919, "shots_off_target": 0.3068, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9118, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sander Berge", "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0952, "creation_factor": 1.001, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 340, "fifa_rank": 287.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5881, "expected_assists": 0.0695, "assist_rate": 0.0494, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0229, "goal_rate": 0.0305, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1086, "total_shots": 0.4154, "rating": 6.9646, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 57.8558, "accurate_pass": 53.7865, "duels_won": 4.1364, "total_long_balls": 2.6808, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0511, "total_own_half_passes": 24.6133, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4931, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.2425, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.2934, "crosses_total": 0.3975, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.2171, "possession_lost": 6.9394, "dispossessed": 0.4004, "duels_lost": 2.8009, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.3551, "tackles_won": 1.3325, "tackles": 2.5788, "clearances": 1.3615, "total_contest": 0.4004, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6297, "fouls": 1.383, "fouls_drawn": 1.5689, "blocks": 0.6898, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.748, "total_progression": 65.0824, "progressive_carries": 0.919, "shots_off_target": 0.3068, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9118, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sander Berge", "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0226, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0952, "creation_factor": 1.001, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0226, "scorer_weight": 0.0251, "squad_weight_total": 1.4921, "weight_share": 0.0168, "finishing_factor": 1.0952, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Leif Davis", "weight": 0.389, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.389, "runner_up": "Emersonn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3227 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5881, "expected_assists": 0.0695, "assist_rate": 0.0494, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0229, "goal_rate": 0.0305, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1086, "total_shots": 0.4154, "rating": 6.9646, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 57.8558, "accurate_pass": 53.7865, "duels_won": 4.1364, "total_long_balls": 2.6808, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0511, "total_own_half_passes": 24.6133, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.4931, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.2425, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.2934, "crosses_total": 0.3975, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.2171, "possession_lost": 6.9394, "dispossessed": 0.4004, "duels_lost": 2.8009, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.3551, "tackles_won": 1.3325, "tackles": 2.5788, "clearances": 1.3615, "total_contest": 0.4004, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.6297, "fouls": 1.383, "fouls_drawn": 1.5689, "blocks": 0.6898, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.748, "total_progression": 65.0824, "progressive_carries": 0.919, "shots_off_target": 0.3068, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9118, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sander Berge", "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0226, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0671, "finishing_factor": 1.0952, "creation_factor": 1.001, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0671, "provider_weight": 0.0696, "squad_weight_total": 0.9377, "weight_share": 0.0742, "creation_factor": 1.001, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julio Enciso", "weight": 0.1888, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1888, "runner_up": "Saša Lukić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1387, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Leif Davis" ] } ] } } ] }, "Saša Lukić": { "player_id": 371222, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 183, "market_value": 9400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1317, "assist_rate": 0.101, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "goal_rate": 0.0429, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.9222, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 8.0458, "dispossessed": 0.231, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0219, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 91, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8057, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.288, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sander Berge", "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0387, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1234, "finishing_factor": 1.0254, "creation_factor": 1.053, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363651, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2483, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 49, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0971, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363261, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0197, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 61, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0167, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0192, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0851, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 51, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0444, "expected_assists": 0.1176, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023931, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2902, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025031, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0845, "expected_assists": 0.215, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2651, "combined_rank_score": 929.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 761.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6538, "sofascore_appearances": 26.0, "fifa_rank": 1098.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9222, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Saša Lukić", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Abdulazizkhon Abdurashidov", "ranking": 2646 }, { "player_name": "Pau López", "ranking": 2647 }, { "player_name": "Orbelín Pineda", "ranking": 2648 }, { "player_name": "Raúl Jiménez", "ranking": 2649 }, { "player_name": "Ilaix Moriba", "ranking": 2650 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Basil Tuma", "ranking": 2652 }, { "player_name": "Jorge Recalde", "ranking": 2653 }, { "player_name": "Mauricio", "ranking": 2654 }, { "player_name": "Luca Sosa", "ranking": 2655 }, { "player_name": "Ruben Ramirez", "ranking": 2656 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.768, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 31, "data_confidence": 0.768, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0004, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 162.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.5555555555555556, "shots_per90": 0.56, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 31 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Ipswich Town, rel: 0.12, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.5555555555555556)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9894, "expected_assists": 0.0933, "assists": 0.0965, "assist_rate": 0.0965, "expected_goals": 0.0504, "goals": 0.0538, "goal_rate": 0.0538, "shots_on_target": 0.224, "total_shots": 0.6134, "rating": 6.9222, "minutes": 81.87, "total_pass": 45.4033, "accurate_pass": 40.083, "duels_won": 3.1359, "total_long_balls": 1.4902, "accurate_long_balls": 0.673, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4091, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.728, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.9943, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.3551, "crosses_total": 2.2586, "crosses_accurate": 0.2664, "touches": 57.3792, "possession_lost": 8.0426, "dispossessed": 0.2309, "duels_lost": 4.5003, "aerial_won": 0.5314, "aerial_lost": 0.9988, "interceptions": 1.0756, "tackles_won": 0.9519, "tackles": 1.7095, "clearances": 1.6965, "total_contest": 0.5051, "won_contest": 0.3294, "challenges_lost": 0.7909, "fouls": 2.3425, "fouls_drawn": 0.5656, "blocks": 0.4095, "big_chances_created": 0.1199, "big_chances_missed": 0.0608, "xgot": 0.0279, "ball_carries": 18.0367, "total_progression": 90.6707, "progressive_carries": 2.0204, "shots_off_target": 0.3894 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.151, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1283, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1091, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0927, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0788, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.067, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.433, "creative_index": 0.4832, "expectedGoals": 0.0305, "expectedAssists": 0.0866, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.1669 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9893919825553894, "model_output": 0.9894, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.117 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0816 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0509 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0316 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0258 } ], "others": -0.0889, "total": 0.9894, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12404 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.078208 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.045837 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.028197 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.023615 } ], "others_margin": -0.086122 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.0933295264840126, "model_output": 0.0933, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0057 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0042 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0034 } ], "others": -0.0072, "total": 0.0933, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.1265 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.093692 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.054982 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.041963 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.034667 } ], "others_margin": -0.073486 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.09652439504861832, "model_output": 0.0965, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0063 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0053 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0056 } ], "others": -0.0006, "total": 0.0965, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.137293 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.081223 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.066956 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.060234 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.05947 } ], "others_margin": -0.006143 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.050404854118824005, "model_output": 0.0504, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0036 } ], "others": -0.0132, "total": 0.0504, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.184619 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.158366 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.157949 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.156343 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.055385 } ], "others_margin": -0.231821 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.053840383887290955, "model_output": 0.0538, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0074 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.005 } ], "others": -0.006, "total": 0.0538, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.26324 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.150727 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.112403 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.108133 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.079902 } ], "others_margin": -0.105718 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.22399155795574188, "model_output": 0.224, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0828 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0353 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0282 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0182, "total": 0.224, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.295242 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.136541 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.107448 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.065273 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.040302 } ], "others_margin": -0.077986 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6133599281311035, "model_output": 0.6134, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2734 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1319 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0486 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0302 } ], "others": -0.1217, "total": 0.6134, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.273418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131893 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.04857 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.035123 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.030242 } ], "others_margin": -0.121644 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.922208309173584, "model_output": 6.9222, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0859 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0535 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0293 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0178 } ], "others": -0.0266, "total": 6.9222, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.085866 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.053485 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.029302 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.02036 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.01783 } ], "others_margin": -0.026535 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0004, quality 0.515)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9898, "expected_assists": 0.0934, "assists": 0.0966, "assist_rate": 0.0966, "expected_goals": 0.0504, "goals": 0.0539, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "shots_on_target": 0.2241, "total_shots": 0.6137, "rating": 6.9222, "minutes": 81.87, "total_pass": 45.4215, "accurate_pass": 40.099, "duels_won": 3.1372, "total_long_balls": 1.4908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6733, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4173, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7355, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0043, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.3636, "crosses_total": 2.2595, "crosses_accurate": 0.2665, "touches": 57.4022, "possession_lost": 8.0458, "dispossessed": 0.231, "duels_lost": 4.5021, "aerial_won": 0.5316, "aerial_lost": 0.9992, "interceptions": 1.076, "tackles_won": 0.9523, "tackles": 1.7102, "clearances": 1.6972, "total_contest": 0.5053, "won_contest": 0.3295, "challenges_lost": 0.7912, "fouls": 2.3434, "fouls_drawn": 0.5658, "blocks": 0.4097, "big_chances_created": 0.1199, "big_chances_missed": 0.0608, "xgot": 0.0279, "ball_carries": 18.0439, "total_progression": 90.707, "progressive_carries": 2.0212, "shots_off_target": 0.3896 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9400000, "quality_factor": 0.5154, "boost_factor": 1.0004, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9898, "expected_assists": 0.0934, "assists": 0.101, "assist_rate": 0.101, "expected_goals": 0.0504, "goals": 0.0533, "goal_rate": 0.0533, "shots_on_target": 0.2217, "total_shots": 0.6126, "rating": 6.9222, "minutes": 81.87, "total_pass": 45.4215, "accurate_pass": 40.099, "duels_won": 3.1372, "total_long_balls": 1.4908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6733, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4173, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7355, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0043, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.3636, "crosses_total": 2.2569, "crosses_accurate": 0.2665, "touches": 57.4022, "possession_lost": 8.0458, "dispossessed": 0.231, "duels_lost": 4.5021, "aerial_won": 0.5316, "aerial_lost": 0.9992, "interceptions": 1.0753, "tackles_won": 0.9584, "tackles": 1.7102, "clearances": 1.6972, "total_contest": 0.5053, "won_contest": 0.3295, "challenges_lost": 0.7912, "fouls": 2.3399, "fouls_drawn": 0.5597, "blocks": 0.4097, "big_chances_created": 0.1199, "big_chances_missed": 0.0608, "xgot": 0.0279, "ball_carries": 18.0439, "total_progression": 90.707, "progressive_carries": 2.0212, "shots_off_target": 0.3896 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0108, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9097, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.9523, "after": 0.9584 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.5658, "after": 0.5597 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9898, "expected_assists": 0.0934, "assists": 0.101, "assist_rate": 0.101, "expected_goals": 0.0504, "goals": 0.0533, "goal_rate": 0.0533, "shots_on_target": 0.2217, "total_shots": 0.6126, "rating": 6.9222, "minutes": 81.87, "total_pass": 45.4215, "accurate_pass": 40.099, "duels_won": 3.1372, "total_long_balls": 1.4908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6733, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4173, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7355, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0043, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.3636, "crosses_total": 2.2569, "crosses_accurate": 0.2665, "touches": 57.4022, "possession_lost": 8.0458, "dispossessed": 0.231, "duels_lost": 4.5021, "aerial_won": 0.5316, "aerial_lost": 0.9992, "interceptions": 1.0753, "tackles_won": 0.9584, "tackles": 1.7102, "clearances": 1.6972, "total_contest": 0.5053, "won_contest": 0.3295, "challenges_lost": 0.7912, "fouls": 2.3399, "fouls_drawn": 0.5597, "blocks": 0.4097, "big_chances_created": 0.1199, "big_chances_missed": 0.0608, "xgot": 0.0279, "ball_carries": 18.0439, "total_progression": 90.707, "progressive_carries": 2.0212, "shots_off_target": 0.3896 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9898, "expected_assists": 0.0934, "assists": 0.101, "assist_rate": 0.101, "expected_goals": 0.0406, "goals": 0.0429, "goal_rate": 0.0429, "shots_on_target": 0.1786, "total_shots": 0.4936, "rating": 6.9222, "minutes": 81.87, "total_pass": 45.4215, "accurate_pass": 40.099, "duels_won": 3.1372, "total_long_balls": 1.4908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6733, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4173, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7355, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0043, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.3636, "crosses_total": 2.2569, "crosses_accurate": 0.2665, "touches": 57.4022, "possession_lost": 8.0458, "dispossessed": 0.231, "duels_lost": 4.5021, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.9992, "interceptions": 1.0753, "tackles_won": 0.9584, "tackles": 1.7102, "clearances": 1.6972, "total_contest": 0.5053, "won_contest": 0.3295, "challenges_lost": 0.7912, "fouls": 2.3399, "fouls_drawn": 0.5597, "blocks": 0.4097, "big_chances_created": 0.1199, "big_chances_missed": 0.049, "xgot": 0.0225, "ball_carries": 18.0439, "total_progression": 90.707, "progressive_carries": 2.0212, "shots_off_target": 0.3139, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8057, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.288, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sander Berge", "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.288, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8057, "skill_edge": -0.0842, "height_edge": -0.048, "attacker_skill": 0.5348, "defender_skill": 0.7219, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Sander Berge", "market_value": 26000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.7219 } ], "xg_override": 0.0406 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.5316, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6126, "after": 0.4936 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.3896, "after": 0.3139 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2217, "after": 0.1786 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.0608, "after": 0.049 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0533, "after": 0.0429 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0504, "after": 0.0406 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0279, "after": 0.0225 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.4499, xG scale 0.9725, xA scale 1.4098, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9898, "expected_assists": 0.1317, "assist_rate": 0.101, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "goal_rate": 0.0429, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1786, "total_shots": 0.4936, "rating": 6.9222, "minutes": 81.87, "total_pass": 45.4215, "accurate_pass": 40.099, "duels_won": 3.1372, "total_long_balls": 1.4908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6733, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4173, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7355, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0043, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.3636, "crosses_total": 2.2569, "crosses_accurate": 0.2665, "touches": 57.4022, "possession_lost": 8.0458, "dispossessed": 0.231, "duels_lost": 4.5021, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.9992, "interceptions": 1.0753, "tackles_won": 0.9584, "tackles": 1.7102, "clearances": 1.6972, "total_contest": 0.5053, "won_contest": 0.3295, "challenges_lost": 0.7912, "fouls": 2.3399, "fouls_drawn": 0.5597, "blocks": 0.4097, "big_chances_created": 0.1199, "big_chances_missed": 0.049, "xgot": 0.0219, "ball_carries": 18.0439, "total_progression": 90.707, "progressive_carries": 2.0212, "shots_off_target": 0.3139, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8057, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.288, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sander Berge", "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0254, "creation_factor": 1.053 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4499, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6501, "team_expected_assists": 0.9165, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9725, "xa_scale": 1.4098, "opponent_lambda": 1.302, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0934, "after": 0.1317 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9898, "expected_assists": 0.1317, "assist_rate": 0.101, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "goal_rate": 0.0429, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1786, "total_shots": 0.4936, "rating": 6.9222, "minutes": 81.87, "total_pass": 45.4215, "accurate_pass": 40.099, "duels_won": 3.1372, "total_long_balls": 1.4908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6733, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4173, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7355, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0043, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.3636, "crosses_total": 2.2569, "crosses_accurate": 0.2665, "touches": 57.4022, "possession_lost": 8.0458, "dispossessed": 0.231, "duels_lost": 4.5021, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.9992, "interceptions": 1.0753, "tackles_won": 0.9584, "tackles": 1.7102, "clearances": 1.6972, "total_contest": 0.5053, "won_contest": 0.3295, "challenges_lost": 0.7912, "fouls": 2.3399, "fouls_drawn": 0.5597, "blocks": 0.4097, "big_chances_created": 0.1199, "big_chances_missed": 0.049, "xgot": 0.0219, "ball_carries": 18.0439, "total_progression": 90.707, "progressive_carries": 2.0212, "shots_off_target": 0.3139, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8057, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.288, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sander Berge", "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0254, "creation_factor": 1.053, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2651, "fifa_rank": 1098.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9898, "expected_assists": 0.1317, "assist_rate": 0.101, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "goal_rate": 0.0429, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1786, "total_shots": 0.4936, "rating": 6.9222, "minutes": 81.87, "total_pass": 45.4215, "accurate_pass": 40.099, "duels_won": 3.1372, "total_long_balls": 1.4908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6733, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4173, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7355, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0043, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.3636, "crosses_total": 2.2569, "crosses_accurate": 0.2665, "touches": 57.4022, "possession_lost": 8.0458, "dispossessed": 0.231, "duels_lost": 4.5021, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.9992, "interceptions": 1.0753, "tackles_won": 0.9584, "tackles": 1.7102, "clearances": 1.6972, "total_contest": 0.5053, "won_contest": 0.3295, "challenges_lost": 0.7912, "fouls": 2.3399, "fouls_drawn": 0.5597, "blocks": 0.4097, "big_chances_created": 0.1199, "big_chances_missed": 0.049, "xgot": 0.0219, "ball_carries": 18.0439, "total_progression": 90.707, "progressive_carries": 2.0212, "shots_off_target": 0.3139, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8057, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.288, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sander Berge", "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0387, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0254, "creation_factor": 1.053, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0387, "scorer_weight": 0.0405, "squad_weight_total": 1.4921, "weight_share": 0.0271, "finishing_factor": 1.0254, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Leif Davis", "weight": 0.389, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.389, "runner_up": "Emersonn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3227 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9898, "expected_assists": 0.1317, "assist_rate": 0.101, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "goal_rate": 0.0429, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1786, "total_shots": 0.4936, "rating": 6.9222, "minutes": 81.87, "total_pass": 45.4215, "accurate_pass": 40.099, "duels_won": 3.1372, "total_long_balls": 1.4908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6733, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4173, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7355, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0043, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.3636, "crosses_total": 2.2569, "crosses_accurate": 0.2665, "touches": 57.4022, "possession_lost": 8.0458, "dispossessed": 0.231, "duels_lost": 4.5021, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.9992, "interceptions": 1.0753, "tackles_won": 0.9584, "tackles": 1.7102, "clearances": 1.6972, "total_contest": 0.5053, "won_contest": 0.3295, "challenges_lost": 0.7912, "fouls": 2.3399, "fouls_drawn": 0.5597, "blocks": 0.4097, "big_chances_created": 0.1199, "big_chances_missed": 0.049, "xgot": 0.0219, "ball_carries": 18.0439, "total_progression": 90.707, "progressive_carries": 2.0212, "shots_off_target": 0.3139, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8057, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.288, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sander Berge", "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0387, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1234, "finishing_factor": 1.0254, "creation_factor": 1.053, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1234, "provider_weight": 0.1387, "squad_weight_total": 0.9377, "weight_share": 0.1479, "creation_factor": 1.053, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julio Enciso", "weight": 0.1888, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1888, "runner_up": "Saša Lukić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1387, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Leif Davis" ] } ] } } ] }, "Leif Davis": { "player_id": 963493, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 182, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7028, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 13.779, "dispossessed": 0.7567, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.4071, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.2238, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3402, "expected_assists": 0.1345, "shots_on_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.3678, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2884, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1258, "finishing_factor": 1.1433, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363651, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4214, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.5151, "expected_assists": 0.1919, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363261, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.114, "expected_assists": 0.1184, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5369, "expected_assists": 0.1247, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 25, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3456, "combined_rank_score": 1452.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 2207.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7028, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Leif Davis", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Cédric Kipré", "ranking": 3451 }, { "player_name": "Connor Roberts", "ranking": 3452 }, { "player_name": "Florentino", "ranking": 3453 }, { "player_name": "Marco Sportiello", "ranking": 3454 }, { "player_name": "Arsène Kouassi", "ranking": 3455 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ismaëlo Ganiou", "ranking": 3457 }, { "player_name": "Olivier Giroud", "ranking": 3458 }, { "player_name": "Roberto Fernández", "ranking": 3459 }, { "player_name": "Eric Dier", "ranking": 3460 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Nygren", "ranking": 3461 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.582, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.582, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0204, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.5, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 5 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Ipswich Town, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.5, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7943, "tackles": 1.2314, "tackles_won": 0.7047, "clearances": 2.6797, "aerial_won": 0.8265, "total_shots": 0.7065, "rating": 6.7028, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.9273, "accurate_pass": 21.0035, "duels_won": 1.5804, "total_long_balls": 2.4692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3148, "total_own_half_passes": 13.2541, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.1755, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6732, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.828, "crosses_total": 2.9925, "crosses_accurate": 0.4988, "touches": 50.4914, "possession_lost": 13.5035, "dispossessed": 0.7416, "duels_lost": 2.1745, "aerial_lost": 0.9977, "total_contest": 0.1656, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8523, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2696, "fouls_drawn": 0.6396, "blocks": 0.7708, "goals": 0.3948, "goal_rate": 0.3948, "assists": 0.2292, "assist_rate": 0.2292, "expected_goals": 0.3428, "expected_assists": 0.0935, "shots_on_target": 0.5604, "big_chances_created": 0.2846, "xgot": 0.3706, "ball_carries": 9.3569, "total_progression": 12.9133, "progressive_carries": 0.4719, "key_pass": 0.7844, "shots_off_target": 0.1461 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 2.8867, "aerialWon": 0.5512, "totalClearance_p90": 2.8867, "totalTackle": 0.3896, "totalPass": 27.9273 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.7943426966667175, "model_output": 0.7943, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0979 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0977 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0257 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0077, "total": 0.7943, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.121297 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121038 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.030443 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.019307 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.016739 } ], "others_margin": -0.009493 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.2313510179519653, "model_output": 1.2314, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1754 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1708 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0964 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0695 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0554 } ], "others": 0.0634, "total": 1.2314, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.134526 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131218 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.071929 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.055238 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.04634 } ], "others_margin": 0.052838 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.704660177230835, "model_output": 0.7047, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1202 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0894 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0705 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0496 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0386 } ], "others": 0.0398, "total": 0.7047, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.151569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114864 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.089458 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.068185 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.056383 } ], "others_margin": 0.058105 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.679654121398926, "model_output": 2.6797, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4698 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.3529 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2861 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2467 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1136 } ], "others": -0.2422, "total": 2.6797, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127624 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.094313 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.083589 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.078152 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.03814 } ], "others_margin": -0.086525 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8264939785003662, "model_output": 0.8265, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.4022 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1156 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0762 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0418 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0395 } ], "others": -0.1114, "total": 0.8265, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.343927 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.111499 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.072069 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.041864 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.041301 } ], "others_margin": -0.126453 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.706468403339386, "model_output": 0.7065, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2846 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0648 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0365 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.025 } ], "others": -0.0234, "total": 0.7065, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.284606 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.06478 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.036483 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029118 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.024993 } ], "others_margin": -0.023455 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.702777862548828, "model_output": 6.7028, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0333 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0109 } ], "others": -0.0814, "total": 6.7028, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.033289 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019339 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.014777 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011024 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.01092 } ], "others_margin": -0.081421 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0204, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8105, "tackles": 1.2565, "tackles_won": 0.719, "clearances": 2.7343, "aerial_won": 0.8434, "total_shots": 0.7209, "rating": 6.7028, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.497, "accurate_pass": 21.432, "duels_won": 1.6126, "total_long_balls": 2.5196, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3416, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5245, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3831, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9725, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0489, "crosses_total": 3.0535, "crosses_accurate": 0.509, "touches": 51.5214, "possession_lost": 13.779, "dispossessed": 0.7567, "duels_lost": 2.2189, "aerial_lost": 1.0181, "total_contest": 0.169, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8901, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2751, "fouls_drawn": 0.6526, "blocks": 0.7865, "goals": 0.4029, "goal_rate": 0.4029, "assists": 0.2339, "assist_rate": 0.2339, "expected_goals": 0.3498, "expected_assists": 0.0954, "shots_on_target": 0.5718, "big_chances_created": 0.2904, "xgot": 0.3782, "ball_carries": 9.5478, "total_progression": 13.1767, "progressive_carries": 0.4815, "key_pass": 0.8004, "shots_off_target": 0.1491 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0204, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0433)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8187, "tackles": 1.2565, "tackles_won": 0.6879, "clearances": 2.7343, "aerial_won": 0.8434, "total_shots": 0.733, "rating": 6.7028, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.497, "accurate_pass": 21.432, "duels_won": 1.6126, "total_long_balls": 2.5196, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3416, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5245, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3831, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9725, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0489, "crosses_total": 2.9862, "crosses_accurate": 0.509, "touches": 51.5214, "possession_lost": 13.779, "dispossessed": 0.7567, "duels_lost": 2.2189, "aerial_lost": 1.0181, "total_contest": 0.169, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8901, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2632, "fouls_drawn": 0.646, "blocks": 0.7865, "goals": 0.4071, "goal_rate": 0.4071, "assists": 0.2238, "assist_rate": 0.2238, "expected_goals": 0.3498, "expected_assists": 0.0954, "shots_on_target": 0.5904, "big_chances_created": 0.2904, "xgot": 0.3782, "ball_carries": 9.5478, "total_progression": 13.1767, "progressive_carries": 0.4815, "key_pass": 0.8004, "shots_off_target": 0.1491 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0433, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.0535, "after": 2.9862 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.719, "after": 0.6879 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5718, "after": 0.5904 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7209, "after": 0.733 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.2751, "after": 0.2632 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.2339, "after": 0.2238 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.8105, "after": 0.8187 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.6526, "after": 0.646 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8187, "tackles": 1.2565, "tackles_won": 0.6879, "clearances": 2.7343, "aerial_won": 0.8434, "total_shots": 0.7395, "rating": 6.7028, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.497, "accurate_pass": 21.432, "duels_won": 1.6126, "total_long_balls": 2.5196, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3416, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5245, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3831, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9725, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0489, "crosses_total": 2.9862, "crosses_accurate": 0.509, "touches": 51.5214, "possession_lost": 13.779, "dispossessed": 0.7567, "duels_lost": 2.2189, "aerial_lost": 1.0181, "total_contest": 0.169, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8901, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2632, "fouls_drawn": 0.646, "blocks": 0.7865, "goals": 0.4071, "goal_rate": 0.4071, "assists": 0.2238, "assist_rate": 0.2238, "expected_goals": 0.3498, "expected_assists": 0.0954, "shots_on_target": 0.5904, "big_chances_created": 0.2904, "xgot": 0.3782, "ball_carries": 9.5478, "total_progression": 13.1767, "progressive_carries": 0.4815, "key_pass": 0.8004, "shots_off_target": 0.1491 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8187, "tackles": 1.2565, "tackles_won": 0.6879, "clearances": 2.7343, "aerial_won": 0.8434, "total_shots": 0.7395, "rating": 6.7028, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.497, "accurate_pass": 21.432, "duels_won": 1.6126, "total_long_balls": 2.5196, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3416, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5245, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3831, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9725, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0489, "crosses_total": 2.9862, "crosses_accurate": 0.509, "touches": 51.5214, "possession_lost": 13.779, "dispossessed": 0.7567, "duels_lost": 2.2189, "aerial_lost": 1.0181, "total_contest": 0.169, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8901, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2632, "fouls_drawn": 0.646, "blocks": 0.7865, "goals": 0.4071, "goal_rate": 0.4071, "assists": 0.2238, "assist_rate": 0.2238, "expected_goals": 0.3498, "expected_assists": 0.0954, "shots_on_target": 0.5904, "big_chances_created": 0.2904, "xgot": 0.3782, "ball_carries": 9.5478, "total_progression": 13.1767, "progressive_carries": 0.4815, "key_pass": 0.8004, "shots_off_target": 0.1491, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.4499, xG scale 0.9725, xA scale 1.4098, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8187, "tackles": 1.2565, "tackles_won": 0.6879, "clearances": 2.7343, "aerial_won": 0.8434, "total_shots": 0.7395, "rating": 6.7028, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.497, "accurate_pass": 21.432, "duels_won": 1.6126, "total_long_balls": 2.5196, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3416, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5245, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3831, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9725, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0489, "crosses_total": 2.9862, "crosses_accurate": 0.509, "touches": 51.5214, "possession_lost": 13.779, "dispossessed": 0.7567, "duels_lost": 2.2189, "aerial_lost": 1.0181, "total_contest": 0.169, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8901, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2632, "fouls_drawn": 0.646, "blocks": 0.7865, "goal_rate": 0.4071, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2238, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3402, "expected_assists": 0.1345, "shots_on_target": 0.5904, "big_chances_created": 0.2904, "xgot": 0.3678, "ball_carries": 9.5478, "total_progression": 13.1767, "progressive_carries": 0.4815, "key_pass": 0.8004, "shots_off_target": 0.1491, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1433, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4499, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6501, "team_expected_assists": 0.9165, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9725, "xa_scale": 1.4098, "opponent_lambda": 1.302, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.3498, "after": 0.3402 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0954, "after": 0.1345 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8187, "tackles": 1.2565, "tackles_won": 0.6879, "clearances": 2.7343, "aerial_won": 0.8434, "total_shots": 0.7395, "rating": 6.7028, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.497, "accurate_pass": 21.432, "duels_won": 1.6126, "total_long_balls": 2.5196, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3416, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5245, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3831, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9725, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0489, "crosses_total": 2.9862, "crosses_accurate": 0.509, "touches": 51.5214, "possession_lost": 13.779, "dispossessed": 0.7567, "duels_lost": 2.2189, "aerial_lost": 1.0181, "total_contest": 0.169, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8901, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2632, "fouls_drawn": 0.646, "blocks": 0.7865, "goal_rate": 0.4071, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2238, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3402, "expected_assists": 0.1345, "shots_on_target": 0.5904, "big_chances_created": 0.2904, "xgot": 0.3678, "ball_carries": 9.5478, "total_progression": 13.1767, "progressive_carries": 0.4815, "key_pass": 0.8004, "shots_off_target": 0.1491, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1433, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3456, "fifa_rank": 2207.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8187, "tackles": 1.2565, "tackles_won": 0.6879, "clearances": 2.7343, "aerial_won": 0.8434, "total_shots": 0.7395, "rating": 6.7028, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.497, "accurate_pass": 21.432, "duels_won": 1.6126, "total_long_balls": 2.5196, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3416, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5245, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3831, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9725, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0489, "crosses_total": 2.9862, "crosses_accurate": 0.509, "touches": 51.5214, "possession_lost": 13.779, "dispossessed": 0.7567, "duels_lost": 2.2189, "aerial_lost": 1.0181, "total_contest": 0.169, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8901, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2632, "fouls_drawn": 0.646, "blocks": 0.7865, "goal_rate": 0.4071, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.2238, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3402, "expected_assists": 0.1345, "shots_on_target": 0.5904, "big_chances_created": 0.2904, "xgot": 0.3678, "ball_carries": 9.5478, "total_progression": 13.1767, "progressive_carries": 0.4815, "key_pass": 0.8004, "shots_off_target": 0.1491, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2884, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1433, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2884, "scorer_weight": 0.389, "squad_weight_total": 1.4921, "weight_share": 0.2607, "finishing_factor": 1.1433, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Leif Davis", "weight": 0.389, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.389, "runner_up": "Emersonn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3227 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8187, "tackles": 1.2565, "tackles_won": 0.6879, "clearances": 2.7343, "aerial_won": 0.8434, "total_shots": 0.7395, "rating": 6.7028, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.497, "accurate_pass": 21.432, "duels_won": 1.6126, "total_long_balls": 2.5196, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3416, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5245, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.3831, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9725, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0489, "crosses_total": 2.9862, "crosses_accurate": 0.509, "touches": 51.5214, "possession_lost": 13.779, "dispossessed": 0.7567, "duels_lost": 2.2189, "aerial_lost": 1.0181, "total_contest": 0.169, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8901, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2632, "fouls_drawn": 0.646, "blocks": 0.7865, "goal_rate": 0.4071, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.2238, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3402, "expected_assists": 0.1345, "shots_on_target": 0.5904, "big_chances_created": 0.2904, "xgot": 0.3678, "ball_carries": 9.5478, "total_progression": 13.1767, "progressive_carries": 0.4815, "key_pass": 0.8004, "shots_off_target": 0.1491, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2884, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1258, "finishing_factor": 1.1433, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1258, "provider_weight": 0.1681, "squad_weight_total": 0.9377, "weight_share": 0.1793, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julio Enciso", "weight": 0.1888, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1888, "runner_up": "Saša Lukić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1387, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Leif Davis" ] } ] } } ] }, "Dara O'Shea": { "player_id": 856719, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 26, "height": 188, "market_value": 17000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7725, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 66, "possession_lost": 13.9354, "dispossessed": 0.1428, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0123, "expected_assists": 0.0636, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 41, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0122, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0616, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363651, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 44, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0844, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363261, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0749, "expected_assists": 0.0056, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1583, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 12, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3231, "combined_rank_score": 1176.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 157.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 2195.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7725, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dara O'Shea", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Daniel James", "ranking": 3226 }, { "player_name": "Jhon Lucumí", "ranking": 3227 }, { "player_name": "Fábio Silva", "ranking": 3228 }, { "player_name": "Femi Azeez", "ranking": 3229 }, { "player_name": "Bilal El Khannouss", "ranking": 3230 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Carney Chukwuemeka", "ranking": 3232 }, { "player_name": "Raphael Onyedika", "ranking": 3233 }, { "player_name": "Vladyslav Vanat", "ranking": 3234 }, { "player_name": "Kristijan Jakić", "ranking": 3235 }, { "player_name": "Afonso Moreira", "ranking": 3236 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.582, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.582, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0143, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 5 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Ipswich Town, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1726, "tackles": 1.6344, "tackles_won": 0.8509, "clearances": 5.2674, "aerial_won": 2.6712, "total_shots": 0.4437, "rating": 6.7725, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.1562, "accurate_pass": 31.3387, "duels_won": 5.7232, "total_long_balls": 5.9784, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6373, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9309, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.246, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.4078, "crosses_total": 1.4179, "crosses_accurate": 0.7939, "touches": 64.9105, "possession_lost": 13.7389, "dispossessed": 0.1408, "duels_lost": 3.3057, "aerial_lost": 1.7453, "total_contest": 0.6644, "won_contest": 0.4988, "ball_recovery": 3.5668, "challenges_lost": 0.9228, "fouls": 0.4968, "fouls_drawn": 0.4763, "blocks": 0.8208, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0124, "expected_assists": 0.0445, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.4898, "total_progression": 40.1382, "progressive_carries": 0.8592, "key_pass": 1.2387, "shots_off_target": 0.4437 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 5.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 7.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 5.9417, "aerialWon": 3.4237, "totalClearance_p90": 5.9417, "totalTackle": 1.3243, "totalPass": 42.1562 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.1726453304290771, "model_output": 1.1726, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1037 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0809 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0322 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0312 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0303 } ], "others": 0.1014, "total": 1.1726, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114212 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.080874 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.03139 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.030472 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.028652 } ], "others_margin": 0.090442 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.6344316005706787, "model_output": 1.6344, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1882 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0902 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0735 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.054 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0473 } ], "others": -0.0101, "total": 1.6344, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126673 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.055463 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.042997 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.031405 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.02833 } ], "others_margin": -0.006193 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.8509364128112793, "model_output": 0.8509, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.101 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0597 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0491 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0384 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0272 } ], "others": -0.0495, "total": 0.8509, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.111721 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.060605 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.049616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.040525 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.029722 } ], "others_margin": -0.056467 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 5.267380714416504, "model_output": 5.2674, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.7701 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5864 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.3117 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.288 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2512 } ], "others": 0.1846, "total": 5.2674, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.201419 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.130062 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.062817 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.057902 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.050683 } ], "others_margin": 0.035669 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 2.6711549758911133, "model_output": 2.6712, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.7394 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2646 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2715 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.1857 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1634 } ], "others": -0.3354, "total": 2.6712, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.428548 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117528 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.10775 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.067551 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.055887 } ], "others_margin": -0.118306 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4437340795993805, "model_output": 0.4437, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0915 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0538 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0481 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0206 } ], "others": 0.0164, "total": 0.4437, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.091463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.053844 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.048115 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.021424 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.020647 } ], "others_margin": 0.016265 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.772491455078125, "model_output": 6.7725, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0328 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": 0.0191, "total": 6.7725, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.032837 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018926 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.018293 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.016205 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011102 } ], "others_margin": 0.019051 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0143, quality 0.601)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1894, "tackles": 1.6578, "tackles_won": 0.8631, "clearances": 5.3427, "aerial_won": 2.7094, "total_shots": 0.4501, "rating": 6.7725, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.759, "accurate_pass": 31.7868, "duels_won": 5.805, "total_long_balls": 6.0639, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6607, "total_own_half_passes": 22.2234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.2016, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.5355, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5852, "crosses_total": 1.4382, "crosses_accurate": 0.8053, "touches": 65.8387, "possession_lost": 13.9354, "dispossessed": 0.1428, "duels_lost": 3.353, "aerial_lost": 1.7703, "total_contest": 0.6739, "won_contest": 0.5059, "ball_recovery": 3.6178, "challenges_lost": 0.936, "fouls": 0.5039, "fouls_drawn": 0.4831, "blocks": 0.8325, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0126, "expected_assists": 0.0451, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5969, "total_progression": 40.7122, "progressive_carries": 0.8715, "key_pass": 1.2564, "shots_off_target": 0.45 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17000000, "quality_factor": 0.6006, "boost_factor": 1.0143, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0433)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1595, "tackles": 1.6578, "tackles_won": 0.8474, "clearances": 5.3427, "aerial_won": 2.7094, "total_shots": 0.4523, "rating": 6.7725, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.759, "accurate_pass": 31.7868, "duels_won": 5.805, "total_long_balls": 6.0639, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6607, "total_own_half_passes": 22.2234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.2016, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.5355, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5852, "crosses_total": 1.4192, "crosses_accurate": 0.8053, "touches": 65.8387, "possession_lost": 13.9354, "dispossessed": 0.1428, "duels_lost": 3.353, "aerial_lost": 1.7703, "total_contest": 0.6739, "won_contest": 0.5059, "ball_recovery": 3.6178, "challenges_lost": 0.936, "fouls": 0.5471, "fouls_drawn": 0.5055, "blocks": 0.8325, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0126, "expected_assists": 0.0451, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5969, "total_progression": 40.7122, "progressive_carries": 0.8715, "key_pass": 1.2564, "shots_off_target": 0.45 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0433, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.5039, "after": 0.5471 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1894, "after": 1.1595 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.4831, "after": 0.5055 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.4382, "after": 1.4192 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8631, "after": 0.8474 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1595, "tackles": 1.6578, "tackles_won": 0.8474, "clearances": 5.3427, "aerial_won": 2.7094, "total_shots": 0.4523, "rating": 6.7725, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.759, "accurate_pass": 31.7868, "duels_won": 5.805, "total_long_balls": 6.0639, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6607, "total_own_half_passes": 22.2234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.2016, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.5355, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5852, "crosses_total": 1.4192, "crosses_accurate": 0.8053, "touches": 65.8387, "possession_lost": 13.9354, "dispossessed": 0.1428, "duels_lost": 3.353, "aerial_lost": 1.7703, "total_contest": 0.6739, "won_contest": 0.5059, "ball_recovery": 3.6178, "challenges_lost": 0.936, "fouls": 0.5471, "fouls_drawn": 0.5055, "blocks": 0.8325, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0126, "expected_assists": 0.0451, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5969, "total_progression": 40.7122, "progressive_carries": 0.8715, "key_pass": 1.2564, "shots_off_target": 0.45 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1595, "tackles": 1.6578, "tackles_won": 0.8474, "clearances": 5.3427, "aerial_won": 2.7094, "total_shots": 0.4523, "rating": 6.7725, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.759, "accurate_pass": 31.7868, "duels_won": 5.805, "total_long_balls": 6.0639, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6607, "total_own_half_passes": 22.2234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.2016, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.5355, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5852, "crosses_total": 1.4192, "crosses_accurate": 0.8053, "touches": 65.8387, "possession_lost": 13.9354, "dispossessed": 0.1428, "duels_lost": 3.353, "aerial_lost": 1.7703, "total_contest": 0.6739, "won_contest": 0.5059, "ball_recovery": 3.6178, "challenges_lost": 0.936, "fouls": 0.5471, "fouls_drawn": 0.5055, "blocks": 0.8325, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0126, "expected_assists": 0.0451, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5969, "total_progression": 40.7122, "progressive_carries": 0.8715, "key_pass": 1.2564, "shots_off_target": 0.45, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.4499, xG scale 0.9725, xA scale 1.4098, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1595, "tackles": 1.6578, "tackles_won": 0.8474, "clearances": 5.3427, "aerial_won": 2.7094, "total_shots": 0.4523, "rating": 6.7725, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.759, "accurate_pass": 31.7868, "duels_won": 5.805, "total_long_balls": 6.0639, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6607, "total_own_half_passes": 22.2234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.2016, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.5355, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5852, "crosses_total": 1.4192, "crosses_accurate": 0.8053, "touches": 65.8387, "possession_lost": 13.9354, "dispossessed": 0.1428, "duels_lost": 3.353, "aerial_lost": 1.7703, "total_contest": 0.6739, "won_contest": 0.5059, "ball_recovery": 3.6178, "challenges_lost": 0.936, "fouls": 0.5471, "fouls_drawn": 0.5055, "blocks": 0.8325, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0123, "expected_assists": 0.0636, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5969, "total_progression": 40.7122, "progressive_carries": 0.8715, "key_pass": 1.2564, "shots_off_target": 0.45, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4499, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6501, "team_expected_assists": 0.9165, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9725, "xa_scale": 1.4098, "opponent_lambda": 1.302, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0451, "after": 0.0636 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1595, "tackles": 1.6578, "tackles_won": 0.8474, "clearances": 5.3427, "aerial_won": 2.7094, "total_shots": 0.4523, "rating": 6.7725, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.759, "accurate_pass": 31.7868, "duels_won": 5.805, "total_long_balls": 6.0639, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6607, "total_own_half_passes": 22.2234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.2016, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.5355, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5852, "crosses_total": 1.4192, "crosses_accurate": 0.8053, "touches": 65.8387, "possession_lost": 13.9354, "dispossessed": 0.1428, "duels_lost": 3.353, "aerial_lost": 1.7703, "total_contest": 0.6739, "won_contest": 0.5059, "ball_recovery": 3.6178, "challenges_lost": 0.936, "fouls": 0.5471, "fouls_drawn": 0.5055, "blocks": 0.8325, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0123, "expected_assists": 0.0636, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5969, "total_progression": 40.7122, "progressive_carries": 0.8715, "key_pass": 1.2564, "shots_off_target": 0.45, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3231, "fifa_rank": 2195.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1595, "tackles": 1.6578, "tackles_won": 0.8474, "clearances": 5.3427, "aerial_won": 2.7094, "total_shots": 0.4523, "rating": 6.7725, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.759, "accurate_pass": 31.7868, "duels_won": 5.805, "total_long_balls": 6.0639, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6607, "total_own_half_passes": 22.2234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.2016, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.5355, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5852, "crosses_total": 1.4192, "crosses_accurate": 0.8053, "touches": 65.8387, "possession_lost": 13.9354, "dispossessed": 0.1428, "duels_lost": 3.353, "aerial_lost": 1.7703, "total_contest": 0.6739, "won_contest": 0.5059, "ball_recovery": 3.6178, "challenges_lost": 0.936, "fouls": 0.5471, "fouls_drawn": 0.5055, "blocks": 0.8325, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0123, "expected_assists": 0.0636, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5969, "total_progression": 40.7122, "progressive_carries": 0.8715, "key_pass": 1.2564, "shots_off_target": 0.45, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0122, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0122, "scorer_weight": 0.0098, "squad_weight_total": 1.4921, "weight_share": 0.0066, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Leif Davis", "weight": 0.389, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.389, "runner_up": "Emersonn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3227 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1595, "tackles": 1.6578, "tackles_won": 0.8474, "clearances": 5.3427, "aerial_won": 2.7094, "total_shots": 0.4523, "rating": 6.7725, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 42.759, "accurate_pass": 31.7868, "duels_won": 5.805, "total_long_balls": 6.0639, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6607, "total_own_half_passes": 22.2234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.2016, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.5355, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5852, "crosses_total": 1.4192, "crosses_accurate": 0.8053, "touches": 65.8387, "possession_lost": 13.9354, "dispossessed": 0.1428, "duels_lost": 3.353, "aerial_lost": 1.7703, "total_contest": 0.6739, "won_contest": 0.5059, "ball_recovery": 3.6178, "challenges_lost": 0.936, "fouls": 0.5471, "fouls_drawn": 0.5055, "blocks": 0.8325, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0123, "expected_assists": 0.0636, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5969, "total_progression": 40.7122, "progressive_carries": 0.8715, "key_pass": 1.2564, "shots_off_target": 0.45, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0122, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0616, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0616, "provider_weight": 0.0509, "squad_weight_total": 0.9377, "weight_share": 0.0543, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julio Enciso", "weight": 0.1888, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1888, "runner_up": "Saša Lukić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1387, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Leif Davis" ] } ] } } ] }, "Issa Diop": { "player_id": 825719, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 194, "market_value": 8199999, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.849, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 50, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 38, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 67, "possession_lost": 6.2799, "dispossessed": 0.0891, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0743, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0684, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0722, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 61, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0661, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0351, "finishing_factor": 1.0333, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363651, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0606, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 68, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1313, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 54, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363261, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0075, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 47, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 42, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7813, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 31, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 77, "accurate_pass": 69, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 40, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023947, "match_date": "2026-03-04", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0059, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 69, "accurate_pass": 64, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023973, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 58, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3540, "combined_rank_score": 1507.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 822.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6, "sofascore_appearances": 13.0, "fifa_rank": 2193.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.849, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Issa Diop", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Israel Reyes", "ranking": 3535 }, { "player_name": "Rocco Reitz", "ranking": 3536 }, { "player_name": "Chrislain Matsima", "ranking": 3537 }, { "player_name": "Yan Couto", "ranking": 3538 }, { "player_name": "Enes Ünal", "ranking": 3539 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Senne Lynen", "ranking": 3541 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Camello", "ranking": 3542 }, { "player_name": "Mio Backhaus", "ranking": 3543 }, { "player_name": "Jindřich Staněk", "ranking": 3544 }, { "player_name": "Janis Blaswich", "ranking": 3545 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 18, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 18, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9997, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 18 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Ipswich Town, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0885, "tackles": 0.9976, "tackles_won": 0.6399, "clearances": 5.2079, "aerial_won": 1.6732, "total_shots": 0.3865, "rating": 6.849, "minutes": 89.65, "total_pass": 55.9351, "accurate_pass": 50.2463, "duels_won": 2.8447, "total_long_balls": 4.4171, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6609, "total_own_half_passes": 38.1272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.0351, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2112, "crosses_total": 0.0243, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.189, "possession_lost": 6.2818, "dispossessed": 0.0891, "duels_lost": 1.6739, "aerial_lost": 0.481, "total_contest": 0.2491, "won_contest": 0.2491, "ball_recovery": 3.3766, "challenges_lost": 0.2532, "fouls": 0.8748, "fouls_drawn": 0.3031, "blocks": 1.3323, "goals": 0.0757, "goal_rate": 0.0757, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0703, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "shots_on_target": 0.0757, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0742, "ball_carries": 21.1924, "total_progression": 60.9237, "progressive_carries": 0.2602, "key_pass": 0.2939, "shots_off_target": 0.3108 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1585, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1347, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1145, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0973, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0827, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0703, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0598, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0508, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-04", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0432, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0367, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 18.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.9271, "aerialWon": 1.4343, "totalClearance_p90": 5.1243, "totalTackle": 0.5535, "totalPass": 51.5024 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.088460087776184, "model_output": 1.0885, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1044 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.085 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0328 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0263 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.022 } ], "others": 0.0047, "total": 1.0885, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114904 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.08474 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.030816 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.024045 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.020138 } ], "others_margin": 0.004397 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.9975850582122803, "model_output": 0.9976, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1857 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1449 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.1088 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0571 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0516 } ], "others": -0.138, "total": 0.9976, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.142984 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.113258 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.083837 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.046961 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.044411 } ], "others_margin": -0.129571 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.6398505568504333, "model_output": 0.6399, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.091 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0865 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0671 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0403 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0262 } ], "others": -0.0764, "total": 0.6399, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.112636 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.107363 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.082303 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.052828 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.035923 } ], "others_margin": -0.11278 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 5.207946300506592, "model_output": 5.2079, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4226 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3952 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.4045 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2787 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.1217 } ], "others": 0.1338, "total": 5.2079, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115497 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.097129 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.09052 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.057914 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.024287 } ], "others_margin": 0.026057 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.6731783151626587, "model_output": 1.6732, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1512 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1212 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1111 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0869 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0833 } ], "others": 0.1335, "total": 1.6732, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.103849 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.076105 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.069531 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.057954 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.055621 } ], "others_margin": 0.083082 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.38653770089149475, "model_output": 0.3865, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0878 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0512 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0164 } ], "others": -0.0285, "total": 0.3865, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.087808 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051249 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.018818 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.017119 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.016409 } ], "others_margin": -0.028507 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.848995685577393, "model_output": 6.849, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0154 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0099 } ], "others": 0.0177, "total": 6.849, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.025488 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015747 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.015398 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.011061 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.009861 } ], "others_margin": 0.017804 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 18, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9997, quality 0.501)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0881, "tackles": 0.9973, "tackles_won": 0.6397, "clearances": 5.2064, "aerial_won": 1.6727, "total_shots": 0.3864, "rating": 6.849, "minutes": 89.65, "total_pass": 55.9183, "accurate_pass": 50.2312, "duels_won": 2.8438, "total_long_balls": 4.4158, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6604, "total_own_half_passes": 38.1158, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.0243, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2069, "crosses_total": 0.0243, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.1688, "possession_lost": 6.2799, "dispossessed": 0.0891, "duels_lost": 1.6734, "aerial_lost": 0.4809, "total_contest": 0.249, "won_contest": 0.249, "ball_recovery": 3.3756, "challenges_lost": 0.2531, "fouls": 0.8745, "fouls_drawn": 0.303, "blocks": 1.3319, "goals": 0.0757, "goal_rate": 0.0757, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0703, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "shots_on_target": 0.0757, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0742, "ball_carries": 21.186, "total_progression": 60.9054, "progressive_carries": 0.2601, "key_pass": 0.2938, "shots_off_target": 0.3107 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8199999, "quality_factor": 0.5011, "boost_factor": 0.9997, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 18, "history_shrink": 0.2174, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0188)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0957, "tackles": 0.9973, "tackles_won": 0.637, "clearances": 5.2064, "aerial_won": 1.6727, "total_shots": 0.3791, "rating": 6.849, "minutes": 89.65, "total_pass": 55.9183, "accurate_pass": 50.2312, "duels_won": 2.8438, "total_long_balls": 4.4158, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6604, "total_own_half_passes": 38.1158, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.0243, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2069, "crosses_total": 0.0238, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.1688, "possession_lost": 6.2799, "dispossessed": 0.0891, "duels_lost": 1.6734, "aerial_lost": 0.4809, "total_contest": 0.249, "won_contest": 0.249, "ball_recovery": 3.3756, "challenges_lost": 0.2531, "fouls": 0.8862, "fouls_drawn": 0.2973, "blocks": 1.3319, "goals": 0.0743, "goal_rate": 0.0743, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0703, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "shots_on_target": 0.0743, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0742, "ball_carries": 21.186, "total_progression": 60.9054, "progressive_carries": 0.2601, "key_pass": 0.2938, "shots_off_target": 0.3107 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0188, "history_matches": 18, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9961, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8745, "after": 0.8862 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.0881, "after": 1.0957 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.3864, "after": 0.3791 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.303, "after": 0.2973 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0957, "tackles": 0.9973, "tackles_won": 0.637, "clearances": 5.2064, "aerial_won": 1.6727, "total_shots": 0.385, "rating": 6.849, "minutes": 89.65, "total_pass": 55.9183, "accurate_pass": 50.2312, "duels_won": 2.8438, "total_long_balls": 4.4158, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6604, "total_own_half_passes": 38.1158, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.0243, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2069, "crosses_total": 0.0238, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.1688, "possession_lost": 6.2799, "dispossessed": 0.0891, "duels_lost": 1.6734, "aerial_lost": 0.4809, "total_contest": 0.249, "won_contest": 0.249, "ball_recovery": 3.3756, "challenges_lost": 0.2531, "fouls": 0.8862, "fouls_drawn": 0.2973, "blocks": 1.3319, "goals": 0.0743, "goal_rate": 0.0743, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0703, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "shots_on_target": 0.0743, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0742, "ball_carries": 21.186, "total_progression": 60.9054, "progressive_carries": 0.2601, "key_pass": 0.2938, "shots_off_target": 0.3107 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0957, "tackles": 0.9973, "tackles_won": 0.637, "clearances": 5.2064, "aerial_won": 1.6727, "total_shots": 0.385, "rating": 6.849, "minutes": 89.65, "total_pass": 55.9183, "accurate_pass": 50.2312, "duels_won": 2.8438, "total_long_balls": 4.4158, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6604, "total_own_half_passes": 38.1158, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.0243, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2069, "crosses_total": 0.0238, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.1688, "possession_lost": 6.2799, "dispossessed": 0.0891, "duels_lost": 1.6734, "aerial_lost": 0.4809, "total_contest": 0.249, "won_contest": 0.249, "ball_recovery": 3.3756, "challenges_lost": 0.2531, "fouls": 0.8862, "fouls_drawn": 0.2973, "blocks": 1.3319, "goals": 0.0743, "goal_rate": 0.0743, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0703, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "shots_on_target": 0.0743, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0742, "ball_carries": 21.186, "total_progression": 60.9054, "progressive_carries": 0.2601, "key_pass": 0.2938, "shots_off_target": 0.3107, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.4499, xG scale 0.9725, xA scale 1.4098, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0957, "tackles": 0.9973, "tackles_won": 0.637, "clearances": 5.2064, "aerial_won": 1.6727, "total_shots": 0.385, "rating": 6.849, "minutes": 89.65, "total_pass": 55.9183, "accurate_pass": 50.2312, "duels_won": 2.8438, "total_long_balls": 4.4158, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6604, "total_own_half_passes": 38.1158, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.0243, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2069, "crosses_total": 0.0238, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.1688, "possession_lost": 6.2799, "dispossessed": 0.0891, "duels_lost": 1.6734, "aerial_lost": 0.4809, "total_contest": 0.249, "won_contest": 0.249, "ball_recovery": 3.3756, "challenges_lost": 0.2531, "fouls": 0.8862, "fouls_drawn": 0.2973, "blocks": 1.3319, "goal_rate": 0.0743, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0684, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "shots_on_target": 0.0743, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0722, "ball_carries": 21.186, "total_progression": 60.9054, "progressive_carries": 0.2601, "key_pass": 0.2938, "shots_off_target": 0.3107, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0333, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4499, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6501, "team_expected_assists": 0.9165, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9725, "xa_scale": 1.4098, "opponent_lambda": 1.302, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0253, "after": 0.0357 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0957, "tackles": 0.9973, "tackles_won": 0.637, "clearances": 5.2064, "aerial_won": 1.6727, "total_shots": 0.385, "rating": 6.849, "minutes": 89.65, "total_pass": 55.9183, "accurate_pass": 50.2312, "duels_won": 2.8438, "total_long_balls": 4.4158, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6604, "total_own_half_passes": 38.1158, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.0243, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2069, "crosses_total": 0.0238, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.1688, "possession_lost": 6.2799, "dispossessed": 0.0891, "duels_lost": 1.6734, "aerial_lost": 0.4809, "total_contest": 0.249, "won_contest": 0.249, "ball_recovery": 3.3756, "challenges_lost": 0.2531, "fouls": 0.8862, "fouls_drawn": 0.2973, "blocks": 1.3319, "goal_rate": 0.0743, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0684, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "shots_on_target": 0.0743, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0722, "ball_carries": 21.186, "total_progression": 60.9054, "progressive_carries": 0.2601, "key_pass": 0.2938, "shots_off_target": 0.3107, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0333, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3540, "fifa_rank": 2193.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0957, "tackles": 0.9973, "tackles_won": 0.637, "clearances": 5.2064, "aerial_won": 1.6727, "total_shots": 0.385, "rating": 6.849, "minutes": 89.65, "total_pass": 55.9183, "accurate_pass": 50.2312, "duels_won": 2.8438, "total_long_balls": 4.4158, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6604, "total_own_half_passes": 38.1158, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.0243, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2069, "crosses_total": 0.0238, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.1688, "possession_lost": 6.2799, "dispossessed": 0.0891, "duels_lost": 1.6734, "aerial_lost": 0.4809, "total_contest": 0.249, "won_contest": 0.249, "ball_recovery": 3.3756, "challenges_lost": 0.2531, "fouls": 0.8862, "fouls_drawn": 0.2973, "blocks": 1.3319, "goal_rate": 0.0743, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0684, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "shots_on_target": 0.0743, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0722, "ball_carries": 21.186, "total_progression": 60.9054, "progressive_carries": 0.2601, "key_pass": 0.2938, "shots_off_target": 0.3107, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0661, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0333, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0661, "scorer_weight": 0.0707, "squad_weight_total": 1.4921, "weight_share": 0.0474, "finishing_factor": 1.0333, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Leif Davis", "weight": 0.389, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.389, "runner_up": "Emersonn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3227 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0957, "tackles": 0.9973, "tackles_won": 0.637, "clearances": 5.2064, "aerial_won": 1.6727, "total_shots": 0.385, "rating": 6.849, "minutes": 89.65, "total_pass": 55.9183, "accurate_pass": 50.2312, "duels_won": 2.8438, "total_long_balls": 4.4158, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6604, "total_own_half_passes": 38.1158, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.0243, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2069, "crosses_total": 0.0238, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.1688, "possession_lost": 6.2799, "dispossessed": 0.0891, "duels_lost": 1.6734, "aerial_lost": 0.4809, "total_contest": 0.249, "won_contest": 0.249, "ball_recovery": 3.3756, "challenges_lost": 0.2531, "fouls": 0.8862, "fouls_drawn": 0.2973, "blocks": 1.3319, "goal_rate": 0.0743, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0684, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "shots_on_target": 0.0743, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0722, "ball_carries": 21.186, "total_progression": 60.9054, "progressive_carries": 0.2601, "key_pass": 0.2938, "shots_off_target": 0.3107, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0661, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0351, "finishing_factor": 1.0333, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0351, "provider_weight": 0.0286, "squad_weight_total": 0.9377, "weight_share": 0.0305, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julio Enciso", "weight": 0.1888, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1888, "runner_up": "Saša Lukić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1387, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Leif Davis" ] } ] } } ] }, "Julio Enciso": { "player_id": 973556, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 173, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1565, "assist_rate": 0.1442, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2158, "goal_rate": 0.1427, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "rating": 6.8784, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 42, "possession_lost": 11.7573, "dispossessed": 2.5228, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2544, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 87, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9188, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "David Affengruber", "opponent_faced": "David Affengruber", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1941, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1449, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.2062, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363651, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3435, "expected_assists": 0.0481, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0528, "expected_assists": 0.2037, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363261, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2372, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.4025, "expected_assists": 0.3131, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2314, "expected_assists": 0.3114, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1497, "combined_rank_score": 619.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 91.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.5, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1147.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8784, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Julio Enciso", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bryan Cristante", "ranking": 1492 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Hernández", "ranking": 1493 }, { "player_name": "Yerco Oyanedel", "ranking": 1494 }, { "player_name": "Bekhruz Karimov", "ranking": 1495 }, { "player_name": "Ermedin Demirović", "ranking": 1496 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Johnny Cardoso", "ranking": 1498 }, { "player_name": "Jerdy Schouten", "ranking": 1499 }, { "player_name": "Hyeon-je Kang", "ranking": 1500 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Alonso", "ranking": 1501 }, { "player_name": "Eduardo Vargas", "ranking": 1502 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.581, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.581, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0245, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 160.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 1.1111111111111112, "shots_per90": 3.38, "shots_on_target_pct": 16.7, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 5 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Ipswich Town, rel: 0.12, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 1.1111111111111112)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2659, "expected_assists": 0.1083, "assists": 0.1054, "assist_rate": 0.1054, "expected_goals": 0.2357, "goals": 0.1577, "goal_rate": 0.1577, "shots_on_target": 0.7054, "total_shots": 2.8201, "rating": 6.8784, "minutes": 83.87, "total_pass": 23.9164, "accurate_pass": 19.9823, "duels_won": 3.5953, "total_long_balls": 1.2512, "accurate_long_balls": 0.696, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4463, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7255, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4701, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2569, "crosses_total": 0.2292, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.3365, "possession_lost": 11.4761, "dispossessed": 2.4625, "duels_lost": 6.2513, "aerial_won": 0.2292, "aerial_lost": 0.4645, "interceptions": 0.5304, "tackles_won": 0.3063, "tackles": 0.3063, "clearances": 0.3699, "total_contest": 4.089, "won_contest": 1.3294, "challenges_lost": 0.1948, "fouls": 0.3699, "fouls_drawn": 1.7304, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3805, "big_chances_missed": 0.2057, "xgot": 0.2779, "ball_carries": 13.8088, "total_progression": 85.3368, "progressive_carries": 3.7824, "shots_off_target": 2.1147 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 3.3553, "creative_index": 0.5733, "expectedGoals": 0.2502, "expectedAssists": 0.159, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.8249 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.2658942937850952, "model_output": 1.2659, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1278 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1206 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0952 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0885 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0562 } ], "others": 0.0818, "total": 1.2659, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.134698 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.112398 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.087623 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.081716 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.048645 } ], "others_margin": 0.066759 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.10832159221172333, "model_output": 0.1083, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0093 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0046 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0044 } ], "others": 0.0172, "total": 0.1083, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.165133 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.115755 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.108205 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.049604 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.047377 } ], "others_margin": 0.172342 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.1054006814956665, "model_output": 0.1054, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0067 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0056 } ], "others": 0.0112, "total": 0.1054, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.180386 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.090359 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.066449 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062403 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.061639 } ], "others_margin": 0.111957 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.23569351434707642, "model_output": 0.2357, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0479 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0279 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0235 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0174 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0147 } ], "others": 0.0099, "total": 0.2357, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.410271 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.178842 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129308 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.085797 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.067114 } ], "others_margin": 0.043363 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.15774433314800262, "model_output": 0.1577, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.046 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.017 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0137 } ], "others": -0.0214, "total": 0.1577, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.386256 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.145783 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.113041 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.108219 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.079315 } ], "others_margin": -0.126897 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7053623199462891, "model_output": 0.7054, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1057 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.1023 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0782 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0412 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0227 } ], "others": 0.0313, "total": 0.7054, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.282274 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.213495 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.137103 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.065389 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.03423 } ], "others_margin": 0.045505 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.8200674057006836, "model_output": 2.8201, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.8586 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2138 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.2104 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.158 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.085 } ], "others": 0.3038, "total": 2.8201, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.858552 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.213777 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.210398 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.158008 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.084957 } ], "others_margin": 0.30391 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.878375053405762, "model_output": 6.8784, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0475 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0336 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0279 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0229 } ], "others": 0.0227, "total": 6.8784, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.047479 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033646 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027865 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.023549 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.022867 } ], "others_margin": 0.022659 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0245, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2969, "expected_assists": 0.111, "assists": 0.108, "assist_rate": 0.108, "expected_goals": 0.2415, "goals": 0.1616, "goal_rate": 0.1616, "shots_on_target": 0.7226, "total_shots": 2.8892, "rating": 6.8784, "minutes": 83.87, "total_pass": 24.5024, "accurate_pass": 20.4719, "duels_won": 3.6834, "total_long_balls": 1.2819, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7131, "total_own_half_passes": 7.6287, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8903, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.8736, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5817, "crosses_total": 0.2348, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.3492, "possession_lost": 11.7573, "dispossessed": 2.5228, "duels_lost": 6.4045, "aerial_won": 0.2348, "aerial_lost": 0.4759, "interceptions": 0.5434, "tackles_won": 0.3138, "tackles": 0.3138, "clearances": 0.379, "total_contest": 4.1892, "won_contest": 1.362, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 0.379, "fouls_drawn": 1.7728, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3898, "big_chances_missed": 0.2107, "xgot": 0.2847, "ball_carries": 14.1471, "total_progression": 87.4276, "progressive_carries": 3.8751, "shots_off_target": 2.1665 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0245, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0390)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2969, "expected_assists": 0.111, "assists": 0.1442, "assist_rate": 0.1442, "expected_goals": 0.2415, "goals": 0.1553, "goal_rate": 0.1553, "shots_on_target": 0.7148, "total_shots": 2.8994, "rating": 6.8784, "minutes": 83.87, "total_pass": 24.5024, "accurate_pass": 20.4719, "duels_won": 3.6834, "total_long_balls": 1.2819, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7131, "total_own_half_passes": 7.6287, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8903, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.8736, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5817, "crosses_total": 0.2256, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.3492, "possession_lost": 11.7573, "dispossessed": 2.5228, "duels_lost": 6.4045, "aerial_won": 0.2348, "aerial_lost": 0.4759, "interceptions": 0.5222, "tackles_won": 0.3419, "tackles": 0.3138, "clearances": 0.379, "total_contest": 4.1892, "won_contest": 1.362, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 0.3844, "fouls_drawn": 1.7844, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3898, "big_chances_missed": 0.2107, "xgot": 0.2847, "ball_carries": 14.1471, "total_progression": 87.4276, "progressive_carries": 3.8751, "shots_off_target": 2.1665 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.039, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9319, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.108, "after": 0.1442 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.3138, "after": 0.3419 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.5434, "after": 0.5222 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.7728, "after": 1.7844 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.8892, "after": 2.8994 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.2348, "after": 0.2256 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7226, "after": 0.7148 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1616, "after": 0.1553 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2969, "expected_assists": 0.111, "assists": 0.1442, "assist_rate": 0.1442, "expected_goals": 0.2415, "goals": 0.1553, "goal_rate": 0.1553, "shots_on_target": 0.7148, "total_shots": 2.8994, "rating": 6.8784, "minutes": 83.87, "total_pass": 24.5024, "accurate_pass": 20.4719, "duels_won": 3.6834, "total_long_balls": 1.2819, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7131, "total_own_half_passes": 7.6287, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8903, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.8736, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5817, "crosses_total": 0.2256, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.3492, "possession_lost": 11.7573, "dispossessed": 2.5228, "duels_lost": 6.4045, "aerial_won": 0.2348, "aerial_lost": 0.4759, "interceptions": 0.5222, "tackles_won": 0.3138, "tackles": 0.3138, "clearances": 0.379, "total_contest": 4.1892, "won_contest": 1.362, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 0.3844, "fouls_drawn": 1.7844, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3898, "big_chances_missed": 0.2107, "xgot": 0.2847, "ball_carries": 14.1471, "total_progression": 87.4276, "progressive_carries": 3.8751, "shots_off_target": 2.1665 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2969, "expected_assists": 0.111, "assists": 0.1442, "assist_rate": 0.1442, "expected_goals": 0.2219, "goals": 0.1427, "goal_rate": 0.1427, "shots_on_target": 0.6568, "total_shots": 2.664, "rating": 6.8784, "minutes": 83.87, "total_pass": 24.5024, "accurate_pass": 20.4719, "duels_won": 3.6834, "total_long_balls": 1.2819, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7131, "total_own_half_passes": 7.6287, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8903, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.8736, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5817, "crosses_total": 0.2256, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.3492, "possession_lost": 11.7573, "dispossessed": 2.5228, "duels_lost": 6.4045, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.4759, "interceptions": 0.5222, "tackles_won": 0.3138, "tackles": 0.3138, "clearances": 0.379, "total_contest": 4.1892, "won_contest": 1.362, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 0.3844, "fouls_drawn": 1.7844, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3898, "big_chances_missed": 0.1936, "xgot": 0.2616, "ball_carries": 14.1471, "total_progression": 87.4276, "progressive_carries": 3.8751, "shots_off_target": 1.9906, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9188, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "David Affengruber", "opponent_faced": "David Affengruber", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "David Affengruber", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9188, "skill_edge": -0.0072, "height_edge": -0.048, "attacker_skill": 0.6685, "defender_skill": 0.6846, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "David Affengruber", "market_value": 18100000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.6846 } ], "xg_override": 0.2219 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.2348, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.8994, "after": 2.664 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 2.1665, "after": 1.9906 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7148, "after": 0.6568 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2847, "after": 0.2616 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2415, "after": 0.2219 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2107, "after": 0.1936 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1553, "after": 0.1427 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.4499, xG scale 0.9725, xA scale 1.4098, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2969, "expected_assists": 0.1565, "assist_rate": 0.1442, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2158, "goal_rate": 0.1427, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6568, "total_shots": 2.664, "rating": 6.8784, "minutes": 83.87, "total_pass": 24.5024, "accurate_pass": 20.4719, "duels_won": 3.6834, "total_long_balls": 1.2819, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7131, "total_own_half_passes": 7.6287, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8903, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.8736, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5817, "crosses_total": 0.2256, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.3492, "possession_lost": 11.7573, "dispossessed": 2.5228, "duels_lost": 6.4045, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.4759, "interceptions": 0.5222, "tackles_won": 0.3138, "tackles": 0.3138, "clearances": 0.379, "total_contest": 4.1892, "won_contest": 1.362, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 0.3844, "fouls_drawn": 1.7844, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3898, "big_chances_missed": 0.1936, "xgot": 0.2544, "ball_carries": 14.1471, "total_progression": 87.4276, "progressive_carries": 3.8751, "shots_off_target": 1.9906, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9188, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "David Affengruber", "opponent_faced": "David Affengruber", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.2062 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4499, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6501, "team_expected_assists": 0.9165, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9725, "xa_scale": 1.4098, "opponent_lambda": 1.302, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2219, "after": 0.2158 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.111, "after": 0.1565 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2969, "expected_assists": 0.1565, "assist_rate": 0.1442, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2158, "goal_rate": 0.1427, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6568, "total_shots": 2.664, "rating": 6.8784, "minutes": 83.87, "total_pass": 24.5024, "accurate_pass": 20.4719, "duels_won": 3.6834, "total_long_balls": 1.2819, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7131, "total_own_half_passes": 7.6287, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8903, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.8736, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5817, "crosses_total": 0.2256, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.3492, "possession_lost": 11.7573, "dispossessed": 2.5228, "duels_lost": 6.4045, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.4759, "interceptions": 0.5222, "tackles_won": 0.3138, "tackles": 0.3138, "clearances": 0.379, "total_contest": 4.1892, "won_contest": 1.362, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 0.3844, "fouls_drawn": 1.7844, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3898, "big_chances_missed": 0.1936, "xgot": 0.2544, "ball_carries": 14.1471, "total_progression": 87.4276, "progressive_carries": 3.8751, "shots_off_target": 1.9906, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9188, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "David Affengruber", "opponent_faced": "David Affengruber", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.2062, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1497, "fifa_rank": 1147.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2969, "expected_assists": 0.1565, "assist_rate": 0.1442, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2158, "goal_rate": 0.1427, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6568, "total_shots": 2.664, "rating": 6.8784, "minutes": 83.87, "total_pass": 24.5024, "accurate_pass": 20.4719, "duels_won": 3.6834, "total_long_balls": 1.2819, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7131, "total_own_half_passes": 7.6287, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8903, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.8736, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5817, "crosses_total": 0.2256, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.3492, "possession_lost": 11.7573, "dispossessed": 2.5228, "duels_lost": 6.4045, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.4759, "interceptions": 0.5222, "tackles_won": 0.3138, "tackles": 0.3138, "clearances": 0.379, "total_contest": 4.1892, "won_contest": 1.362, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 0.3844, "fouls_drawn": 1.7844, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3898, "big_chances_missed": 0.1936, "xgot": 0.2544, "ball_carries": 14.1471, "total_progression": 87.4276, "progressive_carries": 3.8751, "shots_off_target": 1.9906, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9188, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "David Affengruber", "opponent_faced": "David Affengruber", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1941, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.2062, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1941, "scorer_weight": 0.1726, "squad_weight_total": 1.4921, "weight_share": 0.1157, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Leif Davis", "weight": 0.389, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.389, "runner_up": "Emersonn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3227 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2969, "expected_assists": 0.1565, "assist_rate": 0.1442, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2158, "goal_rate": 0.1427, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6568, "total_shots": 2.664, "rating": 6.8784, "minutes": 83.87, "total_pass": 24.5024, "accurate_pass": 20.4719, "duels_won": 3.6834, "total_long_balls": 1.2819, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7131, "total_own_half_passes": 7.6287, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8903, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.8736, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5817, "crosses_total": 0.2256, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.3492, "possession_lost": 11.7573, "dispossessed": 2.5228, "duels_lost": 6.4045, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.4759, "interceptions": 0.5222, "tackles_won": 0.3138, "tackles": 0.3138, "clearances": 0.379, "total_contest": 4.1892, "won_contest": 1.362, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 0.3844, "fouls_drawn": 1.7844, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3898, "big_chances_missed": 0.1936, "xgot": 0.2544, "ball_carries": 14.1471, "total_progression": 87.4276, "progressive_carries": 3.8751, "shots_off_target": 1.9906, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9188, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "David Affengruber", "opponent_faced": "David Affengruber", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1941, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1449, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.2062, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1449, "provider_weight": 0.1888, "squad_weight_total": 0.9377, "weight_share": 0.2013, "creation_factor": 1.2062, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julio Enciso", "weight": 0.1888, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1888, "runner_up": "Saša Lukić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1387, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Leif Davis" ] } ] } } ] }, "Abdoul Ouattara": { "player_id": 1930811, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 42, "height": 180, "market_value": 13800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0532, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0407, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8177, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 3.1564, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0062, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8715, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Sander Berge, Shea Charles", "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge, Shea Charles", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0278, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0518, "finishing_factor": 1.1481, "creation_factor": 0.9704, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363651, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0171, "expected_assists": 0.0119, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363261, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4107, "combined_rank_score": 2099.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 873.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.55, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 3326.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8177, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Abdoul Ouattara", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alex Tóth", "ranking": 4102 }, { "player_name": "Victor Torp", "ranking": 4103 }, { "player_name": "Dro Fernández", "ranking": 4104 }, { "player_name": "Agustín Sández", "ranking": 4105 }, { "player_name": "Axel Tuanzebe", "ranking": 4106 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Liam Millar", "ranking": 4108 }, { "player_name": "Cristian Olivera", "ranking": 4109 }, { "player_name": "Oriol Rey", "ranking": 4110 }, { "player_name": "Aihen Muñoz", "ranking": 4111 }, { "player_name": "David Carmo", "ranking": 4112 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.566, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.566, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0091, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 29.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.02 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 5 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Ipswich Town, rel: 0.02, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6222, "expected_assists": 0.0373, "assists": 0.035, "assist_rate": 0.035, "expected_goals": 0.033, "goals": 0.0466, "goal_rate": 0.0466, "shots_on_target": 0.1262, "total_shots": 0.5121, "rating": 6.8177, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 23.1017, "accurate_pass": 20.5498, "duels_won": 1.0381, "total_long_balls": 1.3482, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.791, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7529, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3107, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7969, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.4645, "possession_lost": 3.1279, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3896, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1948, "interceptions": 0.8089, "tackles_won": 0.7685, "tackles": 1.0381, "clearances": 0.8208, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1948, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0072, "ball_carries": 6.7103, "total_progression": 13.994, "progressive_carries": 0.1948, "shots_off_target": 0.3858 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.2696, "creative_index": 0.2463, "expectedGoals": 0.0046, "expectedAssists": 0.007, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2696 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6222156286239624, "model_output": 0.6222, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.1222 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1181 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.1075 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0693 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0276 } ], "others": -0.0555, "total": 0.6222, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.14837 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.143746 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.129923 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.093725 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.039954 } ], "others_margin": -0.085427 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03732430562376976, "model_output": 0.0373, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0083 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0074 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.003 } ], "others": -0.0106, "total": 0.0373, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.276412 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.264555 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.153291 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.135637 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.060629 } ], "others_margin": -0.248122 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.03501848131418228, "model_output": 0.035, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.004 } ], "others": -0.0153, "total": 0.035, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.252642 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.169166 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.098921 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.08808 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.081898 } ], "others_margin": -0.362562 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03299052640795708, "model_output": 0.033, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0343 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0073 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0049 } ], "others": -0.0216, "total": 0.033, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.450836 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.199973 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.138235 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.128857 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.093834 } ], "others_margin": -0.504021 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.046593692153692245, "model_output": 0.0466, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0271 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.006 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0038 } ], "others": -0.009, "total": 0.0466, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.324414 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.177365 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.096919 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.089757 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.06582 } ], "others_margin": -0.179441 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.12622404098510742, "model_output": 0.1262, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0875 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0475 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0375, "total": 0.1262, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.314743 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.224086 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.218642 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129017 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.054146 } ], "others_margin": -0.260057 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5120522379875183, "model_output": 0.5121, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2459 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1082 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0532 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0479 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0452 } ], "others": -0.1944, "total": 0.5121, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.245919 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.108248 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.053172 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.047896 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.045234 } ], "others_margin": -0.19444 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.817658424377441, "model_output": 6.8177, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.058 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0298 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0274 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0162 } ], "others": -0.016, "total": 6.8177, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.058006 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.02977 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027434 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.024162 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.016208 } ], "others_margin": -0.015909 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0091, quality 0.566)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6279, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "assists": 0.0353, "assist_rate": 0.0353, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "goals": 0.047, "goal_rate": 0.047, "shots_on_target": 0.1274, "total_shots": 0.5167, "rating": 6.8177, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 23.3119, "accurate_pass": 20.7368, "duels_won": 1.0475, "total_long_balls": 1.3605, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9347, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8872, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8497, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.7235, "possession_lost": 3.1564, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3931, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1966, "interceptions": 0.8163, "tackles_won": 0.7755, "tackles": 1.0475, "clearances": 0.8283, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1966, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0073, "ball_carries": 6.7714, "total_progression": 14.1213, "progressive_carries": 0.1966, "shots_off_target": 0.3893 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13800000, "quality_factor": 0.566, "boost_factor": 1.0091, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0065)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6279, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "assists": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "goals": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.0467, "shots_on_target": 0.1266, "total_shots": 0.5133, "rating": 6.8177, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 23.3119, "accurate_pass": 20.7368, "duels_won": 1.0475, "total_long_balls": 1.3605, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9347, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8872, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8497, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.7235, "possession_lost": 3.1564, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3931, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1966, "interceptions": 0.811, "tackles_won": 0.7705, "tackles": 1.0475, "clearances": 0.8283, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1966, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0073, "ball_carries": 6.7714, "total_progression": 14.1213, "progressive_carries": 0.1966, "shots_off_target": 0.3893 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0065, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9703, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.8163, "after": 0.811 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7755, "after": 0.7705 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6279, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "assists": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "goals": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.0467, "shots_on_target": 0.1266, "total_shots": 0.5159, "rating": 6.8177, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 23.3119, "accurate_pass": 20.7368, "duels_won": 1.0475, "total_long_balls": 1.3605, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9347, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8872, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8497, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.7235, "possession_lost": 3.1564, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3931, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1966, "interceptions": 0.811, "tackles_won": 0.7705, "tackles": 1.0475, "clearances": 0.8283, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1966, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0073, "ball_carries": 6.7714, "total_progression": 14.1213, "progressive_carries": 0.1966, "shots_off_target": 0.3893 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6279, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "assists": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "expected_goals": 0.029, "goals": 0.0407, "goal_rate": 0.0407, "shots_on_target": 0.1103, "total_shots": 0.4496, "rating": 6.8177, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 23.3119, "accurate_pass": 20.7368, "duels_won": 1.0475, "total_long_balls": 1.3605, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9347, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8872, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8497, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.7235, "possession_lost": 3.1564, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3931, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1966, "interceptions": 0.811, "tackles_won": 0.7705, "tackles": 1.0475, "clearances": 0.8283, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1966, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0064, "ball_carries": 6.7714, "total_progression": 14.1213, "progressive_carries": 0.1966, "shots_off_target": 0.3393, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8715, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Sander Berge, Shea Charles", "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge, Shea Charles", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge, Shea Charles", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.8715, "skill_edge": -0.0394, "height_edge": -0.048, "attacker_skill": 0.574, "defender_skill": 0.6616, "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.95, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Sander Berge", "market_value": 26000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.7219 }, { "player": "Shea Charles", "market_value": 14500000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.6012 } ], "xg_override": 0.029 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5159, "after": 0.4496 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.3893, "after": 0.3393 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1266, "after": 0.1103 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0467, "after": 0.0407 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.4499, xG scale 0.9725, xA scale 1.4098, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6279, "expected_assists": 0.0532, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0407, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1103, "total_shots": 0.4496, "rating": 6.8177, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 23.3119, "accurate_pass": 20.7368, "duels_won": 1.0475, "total_long_balls": 1.3605, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9347, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8872, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8497, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.7235, "possession_lost": 3.1564, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3931, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1966, "interceptions": 0.811, "tackles_won": 0.7705, "tackles": 1.0475, "clearances": 0.8283, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1966, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0062, "ball_carries": 6.7714, "total_progression": 14.1213, "progressive_carries": 0.1966, "shots_off_target": 0.3393, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8715, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Sander Berge, Shea Charles", "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge, Shea Charles", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1481, "creation_factor": 0.9704 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4499, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6501, "team_expected_assists": 0.9165, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9725, "xa_scale": 1.4098, "opponent_lambda": 1.302, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0377, "after": 0.0532 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6279, "expected_assists": 0.0532, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0407, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1103, "total_shots": 0.4496, "rating": 6.8177, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 23.3119, "accurate_pass": 20.7368, "duels_won": 1.0475, "total_long_balls": 1.3605, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9347, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8872, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8497, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.7235, "possession_lost": 3.1564, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3931, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1966, "interceptions": 0.811, "tackles_won": 0.7705, "tackles": 1.0475, "clearances": 0.8283, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1966, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0062, "ball_carries": 6.7714, "total_progression": 14.1213, "progressive_carries": 0.1966, "shots_off_target": 0.3393, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8715, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Sander Berge, Shea Charles", "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge, Shea Charles", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1481, "creation_factor": 0.9704, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4107, "fifa_rank": 3326.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6279, "expected_assists": 0.0532, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0407, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1103, "total_shots": 0.4496, "rating": 6.8177, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 23.3119, "accurate_pass": 20.7368, "duels_won": 1.0475, "total_long_balls": 1.3605, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9347, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8872, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8497, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.7235, "possession_lost": 3.1564, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3931, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1966, "interceptions": 0.811, "tackles_won": 0.7705, "tackles": 1.0475, "clearances": 0.8283, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1966, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0062, "ball_carries": 6.7714, "total_progression": 14.1213, "progressive_carries": 0.1966, "shots_off_target": 0.3393, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8715, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Sander Berge, Shea Charles", "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge, Shea Charles", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0278, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1481, "creation_factor": 0.9704, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0278, "scorer_weight": 0.0324, "squad_weight_total": 1.4921, "weight_share": 0.0217, "finishing_factor": 1.1481, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Leif Davis", "weight": 0.389, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.389, "runner_up": "Emersonn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3227 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6279, "expected_assists": 0.0532, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0407, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1103, "total_shots": 0.4496, "rating": 6.8177, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 23.3119, "accurate_pass": 20.7368, "duels_won": 1.0475, "total_long_balls": 1.3605, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9347, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8872, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8497, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.7235, "possession_lost": 3.1564, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3931, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1966, "interceptions": 0.811, "tackles_won": 0.7705, "tackles": 1.0475, "clearances": 0.8283, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1966, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0062, "ball_carries": 6.7714, "total_progression": 14.1213, "progressive_carries": 0.1966, "shots_off_target": 0.3393, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8715, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Sander Berge, Shea Charles", "opponent_faced": "Sander Berge, Shea Charles", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0278, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0518, "finishing_factor": 1.1481, "creation_factor": 0.9704, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0518, "provider_weight": 0.0516, "squad_weight_total": 0.9377, "weight_share": 0.0551, "creation_factor": 0.9704, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julio Enciso", "weight": 0.1888, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1888, "runner_up": "Saša Lukić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1387, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Leif Davis" ] } ] } } ] }, "Christian Walton": { "player_id": 198038, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 28, "height": 196, "market_value": 2600000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1029, "rating": 6.9295, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 27, "total_long_balls": 36, "accurate_long_balls": 10, "touches": 62, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 17, "punches": 1.9662, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 26.5437, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3017, "shots_faced": 12.4, "expected_saves": 3.04, "high_pressure_saves": 1.04, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García, Josh King", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363651, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 27, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 17, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.3758 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3741, "combined_rank_score": 1736.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3262.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9295, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Christian Walton", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Josip Juranović", "ranking": 3736 }, { "player_name": "Michel Aebischer", "ranking": 3737 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Borré", "ranking": 3738 }, { "player_name": "Mislav Oršić", "ranking": 3739 }, { "player_name": "Visar Musliu", "ranking": 3740 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Neal Maupay", "ranking": 3742 }, { "player_name": "Wilfried Gnonto", "ranking": 3743 }, { "player_name": "Chris Rigg", "ranking": 3744 }, { "player_name": "Mads Bech Sørensen", "ranking": 3745 }, { "player_name": "Gift Links", "ranking": 3746 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9831, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 1 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Ipswich Town, rel: 0.00, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.8288, "goals_prevented": -0.1047, "rating": 6.9295, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 54.0, "accurate_pass": 27.0, "total_long_balls": 37.0, "accurate_long_balls": 10.0, "touches": 63.0, "clearances": 2.0, "ball_recovery": 17.0, "punches": 2.0, "aerial_won": 1.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 1.0, "possession_lost": 27.0, "duels_won": 1.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 25.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:04:18.353158+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 199, "rows": 6796 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.0, "distribution_accuracy": 0.76, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.0, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.36, "save_contribution": 1.3758, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.828827142715454, "model_output": 2.8288, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0362 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9286, "items": [ { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0832 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": -0.0604 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0446 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0318 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0284 } ], "others": 0.0282, "total": 2.8288, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.074537, "item_margins": [ { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.028818 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": -0.021464 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.016158 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.011534 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.010175 } ], "others_margin": 0.010055 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.10466978698968887, "model_output": -0.1047, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0385 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0166, "items": [ { "name": "punches", "contribution": -0.0394 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0143 } ], "others": 0.0296, "total": -0.1047, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "punches", "margin": -0.039441 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": -0.023251 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.022303 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.018449 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": -0.014336 } ], "others_margin": 0.029723 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.929505348205566, "model_output": 6.9295, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "punches", "contribution": -0.0332 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0154 } ], "others": -0.0054, "total": 6.9295, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.009122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "punches", "margin": -0.033186 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.021436 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.019469 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.015533 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.015444 } ], "others_margin": -0.005435 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9831, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.781, "goals_prevented": -0.1029, "rating": 6.9295, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.0874, "accurate_pass": 26.5437, "total_long_balls": 36.3747, "accurate_long_balls": 9.831, "touches": 61.9353, "clearances": 1.9662, "ball_recovery": 16.7127, "punches": 1.9662, "aerial_won": 0.9831, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.9831, "possession_lost": 26.5437, "duels_won": 0.9831, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5775, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6789 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9831, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.781, "goals_prevented": -0.1029, "rating": 6.9295, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.0874, "accurate_pass": 26.5437, "total_long_balls": 36.3747, "accurate_long_balls": 9.831, "touches": 61.9353, "clearances": 1.9662, "ball_recovery": 16.7127, "punches": 1.9662, "aerial_won": 0.9831, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.9831, "possession_lost": 26.5437, "duels_won": 0.9831, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5775, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6789 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.781, "goals_prevented": -0.1029, "rating": 6.9295, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.0874, "accurate_pass": 26.5437, "total_long_balls": 36.3747, "accurate_long_balls": 9.831, "touches": 61.9353, "clearances": 1.9662, "ball_recovery": 16.7127, "punches": 1.9662, "aerial_won": 0.9831, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.9831, "possession_lost": 26.5437, "duels_won": 0.9831, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5775, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6789, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3017, "shots_faced": 12.4, "expected_saves": 3.04, "high_pressure_saves": 1.04, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García, Josh King", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García, Josh King", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.3017 } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.4499, xG scale 0.9725, xA scale 1.4098, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.781, "goals_prevented": -0.1029, "rating": 6.9295, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.0874, "accurate_pass": 26.5437, "total_long_balls": 36.3747, "accurate_long_balls": 9.831, "touches": 61.9353, "clearances": 1.9662, "ball_recovery": 16.7127, "punches": 1.9662, "aerial_won": 0.9831, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.9831, "possession_lost": 26.5437, "duels_won": 0.9831, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5775, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6789, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3017, "shots_faced": 12.4, "expected_saves": 3.04, "high_pressure_saves": 1.04, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García, Josh King", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4499, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6501, "team_expected_assists": 0.9165, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9725, "xa_scale": 1.4098, "opponent_lambda": 1.302, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "saves": 2.781, "goals_prevented": -0.1029, "rating": 6.9295, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.0874, "accurate_pass": 26.5437, "total_long_balls": 36.3747, "accurate_long_balls": 9.831, "touches": 61.9353, "clearances": 1.9662, "ball_recovery": 16.7127, "punches": 1.9662, "aerial_won": 0.9831, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.9831, "possession_lost": 26.5437, "duels_won": 0.9831, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5775, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6789, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3017, "shots_faced": 12.4, "expected_saves": 3.04, "high_pressure_saves": 1.04, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García, Josh King", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3741, "fifa_rank": 3262.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.781, "goals_prevented": -0.1029, "rating": 6.9295, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.0874, "accurate_pass": 26.5437, "total_long_balls": 36.3747, "accurate_long_balls": 9.831, "touches": 61.9353, "clearances": 1.9662, "ball_recovery": 16.7127, "punches": 1.9662, "aerial_won": 0.9831, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.9831, "possession_lost": 26.5437, "duels_won": 0.9831, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5775, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6789, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3017, "shots_faced": 12.4, "expected_saves": 3.04, "high_pressure_saves": 1.04, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García, Josh King", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.4921, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Leif Davis", "weight": 0.389, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.389, "runner_up": "Emersonn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3227 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.781, "goals_prevented": -0.1029, "rating": 6.9295, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 53.0874, "accurate_pass": 26.5437, "total_long_balls": 36.3747, "accurate_long_balls": 9.831, "touches": 61.9353, "clearances": 1.9662, "ball_recovery": 16.7127, "punches": 1.9662, "aerial_won": 0.9831, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.9831, "possession_lost": 26.5437, "duels_won": 0.9831, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5775, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.6789, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3017, "shots_faced": 12.4, "expected_saves": 3.04, "high_pressure_saves": 1.04, "opponent_faced": "Gonzalo García, Josh King", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.9377, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julio Enciso", "weight": 0.1888, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1888, "runner_up": "Saša Lukić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1387, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Leif Davis" ] } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Kjell Scherpen": { "player_id": 852394, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 37, "height": 205, "market_value": 7700000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.0131, "rating": 6.9736, "minutes": 5, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "touches": 7, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.1554, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 2.0791, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.136, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.62, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -1.4936 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363261, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 22, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -0.0564 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 24, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": -0.3024 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.6538 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2677, "combined_rank_score": 935.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 81.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.55, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1790.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9736, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kjell Scherpen", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Stanislav Shopov", "ranking": 2672 }, { "player_name": "Lim Hyung-jin", "ranking": 2673 }, { "player_name": "Eduardo Quaresma", "ranking": 2674 }, { "player_name": "Marco Friedl", "ranking": 2675 }, { "player_name": "Jeong Yong-hee", "ranking": 2676 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Keny Arroyo", "ranking": 2678 }, { "player_name": "Carles Gil", "ranking": 2679 }, { "player_name": "Petar Musa", "ranking": 2680 }, { "player_name": "Štěpán Chaloupek", "ranking": 2681 }, { "player_name": "Park Tae-yong", "ranking": 2682 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.52, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.52, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.620510756509891, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.136, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9983, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (4 historical appearances) to 4.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.14); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.8679, "goals_prevented": 0.0812, "rating": 6.9736, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 30.9959, "accurate_pass": 19.1499, "total_long_balls": 17.0948, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8294, "touches": 45.8638, "clearances": 1.8143, "ball_recovery": 9.5662, "high_claims": 2.0464, "punches": 0.96, "aerial_won": 0.8544, "sweeper_actions": 1.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7191, "saves_inside_box": 1.6802, "possession_lost": 12.846, "duels_won": 1.0471, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1927, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9381, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5717 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:04:18.353158+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 199, "rows": 6796 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.8073, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8672, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.5806, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": -0.0273, "save_contribution": 3.0288, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.7191 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8679239749908447, "model_output": 2.8679, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0362 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9286, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1722 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0599 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0212 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.0132 } ], "others": 0.0015, "total": 2.8679, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.074537, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.0606 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.021494 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.007493 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.005526 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": 0.0046 } ], "others_margin": 0.000538 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.08121874928474426, "model_output": 0.0812, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0385 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0166, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0987 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": 0.0189 } ], "others": 0.0432, "total": 0.0812, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.098688 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.023164 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.020347 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.019491 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.018875 } ], "others_margin": 0.043271 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.973617076873779, "model_output": 6.9736, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0722 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0134 } ], "others": -0.0262, "total": 6.9736, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.009122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.072242 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.030156 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.022657 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.015178 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013419 } ], "others_margin": -0.026337 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9983, quality 0.495)", "stats": { "saves": 2.863, "goals_prevented": 0.0811, "rating": 6.9736, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 30.9432, "accurate_pass": 19.1173, "total_long_balls": 17.0657, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8195, "touches": 45.7858, "clearances": 1.8112, "ball_recovery": 9.5499, "high_claims": 2.0429, "punches": 0.9584, "aerial_won": 0.8529, "sweeper_actions": 0.9983, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7179, "saves_inside_box": 1.6773, "possession_lost": 12.8242, "duels_won": 1.0453, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1924, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5452 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7700000, "quality_factor": 0.4951, "boost_factor": 0.9983, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0481)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7862, "goals_prevented": 0.0811, "rating": 6.9736, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 30.9432, "accurate_pass": 19.1173, "total_long_balls": 17.0657, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8195, "touches": 45.7858, "clearances": 1.8112, "ball_recovery": 9.5499, "high_claims": 2.0429, "punches": 0.9584, "aerial_won": 0.8529, "sweeper_actions": 0.9983, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7179, "saves_inside_box": 1.6773, "possession_lost": 12.8242, "duels_won": 1.0453, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1908, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5452 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0481, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3167, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.863, "after": 2.7862 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.14)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4517, "goals_prevented": 0.0131, "rating": 6.9736, "minutes": 4.62, "total_pass": 5.0166, "accurate_pass": 3.0994, "total_long_balls": 2.7667, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9435, "touches": 7.4229, "clearances": 0.2936, "ball_recovery": 1.5483, "high_claims": 0.3312, "punches": 0.1554, "aerial_won": 0.1383, "sweeper_actions": 0.1618, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1164, "saves_inside_box": 0.2719, "possession_lost": 2.0791, "duels_won": 0.1695, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0309, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9032, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5202, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.136, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.62 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.62, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1621, "appearance_probability": 0.136 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4517, "goals_prevented": 0.0131, "rating": 6.9736, "minutes": 4.62, "total_pass": 5.0166, "accurate_pass": 3.0994, "total_long_balls": 2.7667, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9435, "touches": 7.4229, "clearances": 0.2936, "ball_recovery": 1.5483, "high_claims": 0.3312, "punches": 0.1554, "aerial_won": 0.1383, "sweeper_actions": 0.1618, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1164, "saves_inside_box": 0.2719, "possession_lost": 2.0791, "duels_won": 0.1695, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0309, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9032, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5202, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.136, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.62 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4517, "goals_prevented": 0.0131, "rating": 6.9736, "minutes": 4.62, "total_pass": 5.0166, "accurate_pass": 3.0994, "total_long_balls": 2.7667, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9435, "touches": 7.4229, "clearances": 0.2936, "ball_recovery": 1.5483, "high_claims": 0.3312, "punches": 0.1554, "aerial_won": 0.1383, "sweeper_actions": 0.1618, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1164, "saves_inside_box": 0.2719, "possession_lost": 2.0791, "duels_won": 0.1695, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0309, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9032, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5202, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.136, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.62, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.136, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4517, "goals_prevented": 0.0131, "rating": 6.9736, "minutes": 4.62, "total_pass": 5.0166, "accurate_pass": 3.0994, "total_long_balls": 2.7667, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9435, "touches": 7.4229, "clearances": 0.2936, "ball_recovery": 1.5483, "high_claims": 0.3312, "punches": 0.1554, "aerial_won": 0.1383, "sweeper_actions": 0.1618, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1164, "saves_inside_box": 0.2719, "possession_lost": 2.0791, "duels_won": 0.1695, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0309, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9032, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5202, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.136, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.62, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2677, "fifa_rank": 1790.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] }, "Jacob Greaves": { "player_id": 990821, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 193, "market_value": 13400000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7465, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 36, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 26, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 49, "possession_lost": 4.252, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 38, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.227, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.06, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 55, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363261, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0391, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 46, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 4.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 44, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0048, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3849, "combined_rank_score": 1842.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 1003.0, "sofascore_rating": 5.9, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 2682.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7465, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jacob Greaves", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Abner Vinícius", "ranking": 3844 }, { "player_name": "Saša Kalajdžić", "ranking": 3845 }, { "player_name": "Matthis Abline", "ranking": 3846 }, { "player_name": "Ander Guevara", "ranking": 3847 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Pagis", "ranking": 3848 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Martial Godo", "ranking": 3850 }, { "player_name": "Tomasz Kędziora", "ranking": 3851 }, { "player_name": "Kévin Danois", "ranking": 3852 }, { "player_name": "Gauthier Hein", "ranking": 3853 }, { "player_name": "Keito Nakamura", "ranking": 3854 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.52, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.52, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.063552510443692, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.227, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0094, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (4 historical appearances) to 14.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.23); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3654, "tackles": 0.643, "tackles_won": 0.3919, "clearances": 1.8832, "aerial_won": 0.7447, "total_shots": 0.1062, "rating": 6.7465, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 51.2569, "accurate_pass": 46.0582, "duels_won": 3.8765, "total_long_balls": 3.1132, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4009, "total_own_half_passes": 32.8801, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0197, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.3768, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0384, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.9157, "possession_lost": 5.3914, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.96, "aerial_lost": 1.4194, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.1551, "challenges_lost": 0.3138, "fouls": 0.4194, "fouls_drawn": 1.1056, "blocks": 1.2207, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.2666, "total_progression": 48.0168, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2667, "shots_off_target": 0.1062 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 4.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 4.4464, "aerialWon": 1.6993, "totalClearance_p90": 4.4678, "totalTackle": 1.0716, "totalPass": 51.2569 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.36537033319473267, "model_output": 0.3654, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.472 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0413 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0091 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0074 } ], "others": -0.0082, "total": 0.3654, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.799728 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.113438 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.037285 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.025233 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.020121 } ], "others_margin": -0.022318 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.6429999470710754, "model_output": 0.643, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.685 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0375 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0148 } ], "others": -0.0342, "total": 0.643, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.676142 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.051532 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.038664 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.036964 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.021603 } ], "others_margin": -0.051859 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.39192095398902893, "model_output": 0.3919, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4015 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0435, "total": 0.3919, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.63484 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.032399 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.026387 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.023672 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.021599 } ], "others_margin": -0.105182 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.8831509351730347, "model_output": 1.8832, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1097 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2138 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1129 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0424 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0434 } ], "others": 0.129, "total": 1.8832, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.944802 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.147847 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.070041 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.025106 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.025027 } ], "others_margin": 0.070945 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.7446582913398743, "model_output": 0.7447, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8216 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1063 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0465 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0313 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0218 } ], "others": -0.0216, "total": 0.7447, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.902659 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.173618 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.06736 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.042976 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.028879 } ], "others_margin": -0.028556 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.10617303848266602, "model_output": 0.1062, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1936 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0663 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0266 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0756, "total": 0.1062, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.193593 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.066316 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026589 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.013144 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.010283 } ], "others_margin": -0.0756 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.746474266052246, "model_output": 6.7465, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0179 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0134 } ], "others": 0.0089, "total": 6.7465, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.020805 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.017921 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.015906 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015311 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013413 } ], "others_margin": 0.008857 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0094, quality 0.562)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3688, "tackles": 0.649, "tackles_won": 0.3956, "clearances": 1.9009, "aerial_won": 0.7517, "total_shots": 0.1072, "rating": 6.7465, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 51.7387, "accurate_pass": 46.4911, "duels_won": 3.9129, "total_long_balls": 3.1425, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4141, "total_own_half_passes": 33.1892, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.3113, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5495, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1798, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.4977, "possession_lost": 5.4421, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9784, "aerial_lost": 1.4327, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.1848, "challenges_lost": 0.3167, "fouls": 0.4233, "fouls_drawn": 1.116, "blocks": 1.2322, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.4101, "total_progression": 48.4682, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2692, "shots_off_target": 0.1072 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13400000, "quality_factor": 0.5615, "boost_factor": 1.0094, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0481)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.351, "tackles": 0.649, "tackles_won": 0.391, "clearances": 1.9009, "aerial_won": 0.7517, "total_shots": 0.102, "rating": 6.7465, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 51.7387, "accurate_pass": 46.4911, "duels_won": 3.9129, "total_long_balls": 3.1425, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4141, "total_own_half_passes": 33.1892, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.3113, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.5495, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1798, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.4977, "possession_lost": 5.4421, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9784, "aerial_lost": 1.4327, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.1848, "challenges_lost": 0.3167, "fouls": 0.4126, "fouls_drawn": 1.0815, "blocks": 1.2322, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.4101, "total_progression": 48.4682, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2692, "shots_off_target": 0.1072 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0481, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.116, "after": 1.0815 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.3688, "after": 0.351 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.4233, "after": 0.4126 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.1072, "after": 0.102 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 14.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2742, "tackles": 0.5071, "tackles_won": 0.3055, "clearances": 1.4852, "aerial_won": 0.5873, "total_shots": 0.0838, "rating": 6.7465, "minutes": 14.06, "total_pass": 40.4239, "accurate_pass": 36.3239, "duels_won": 3.0572, "total_long_balls": 2.4553, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1048, "total_own_half_passes": 25.931, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4638, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8601, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.83, "possession_lost": 4.252, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5457, "aerial_lost": 1.4327, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.4883, "challenges_lost": 0.3167, "fouls": 0.3224, "fouls_drawn": 0.845, "blocks": 0.9627, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.04, "total_progression": 37.8686, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2103, "shots_off_target": 0.0838, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.227, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.06 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.06, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 0.7813, "appearance_probability": 0.227 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2742, "tackles": 0.5071, "tackles_won": 0.3055, "clearances": 1.4852, "aerial_won": 0.5873, "total_shots": 0.0838, "rating": 6.7465, "minutes": 14.06, "total_pass": 40.4239, "accurate_pass": 36.3239, "duels_won": 3.0572, "total_long_balls": 2.4553, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1048, "total_own_half_passes": 25.931, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4638, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8601, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.83, "possession_lost": 4.252, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5457, "aerial_lost": 1.4327, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.4883, "challenges_lost": 0.3167, "fouls": 0.3224, "fouls_drawn": 0.845, "blocks": 0.9627, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.04, "total_progression": 37.8686, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2103, "shots_off_target": 0.0838, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.227, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.06 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2742, "tackles": 0.5071, "tackles_won": 0.3055, "clearances": 1.4852, "aerial_won": 0.5873, "total_shots": 0.0838, "rating": 6.7465, "minutes": 14.06, "total_pass": 40.4239, "accurate_pass": 36.3239, "duels_won": 3.0572, "total_long_balls": 2.4553, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1048, "total_own_half_passes": 25.931, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4638, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8601, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.83, "possession_lost": 4.252, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5457, "aerial_lost": 1.4327, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.4883, "challenges_lost": 0.3167, "fouls": 0.3224, "fouls_drawn": 0.845, "blocks": 0.9627, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.04, "total_progression": 37.8686, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2103, "shots_off_target": 0.0838, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.227, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.06, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.227, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2742, "tackles": 0.5071, "tackles_won": 0.3055, "clearances": 1.4852, "aerial_won": 0.5873, "total_shots": 0.0838, "rating": 6.7465, "minutes": 14.06, "total_pass": 40.4239, "accurate_pass": 36.3239, "duels_won": 3.0572, "total_long_balls": 2.4553, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1048, "total_own_half_passes": 25.931, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4638, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8601, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.83, "possession_lost": 4.252, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5457, "aerial_lost": 1.4327, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.4883, "challenges_lost": 0.3167, "fouls": 0.3224, "fouls_drawn": 0.845, "blocks": 0.9627, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.04, "total_progression": 37.8686, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2103, "shots_off_target": 0.0838, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.227, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.06, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3849, "fifa_rank": 2682.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } } ] }, "Darnell Furlong": { "player_id": 786022, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 180, "market_value": 2400000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.001, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9766, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4135, "combined_rank_score": 2132.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 1001.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.0, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 3264.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6791, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Darnell Furlong", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Isac Lidberg", "ranking": 4130 }, { "player_name": "Marcus Pedersen", "ranking": 4131 }, { "player_name": "Tyrique George", "ranking": 4132 }, { "player_name": "Yunus Musah", "ranking": 4133 }, { "player_name": "Florent Muslija", "ranking": 4134 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lucas Noubi", "ranking": 4136 }, { "player_name": "Marcão", "ranking": 4137 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Valentini", "ranking": 4138 }, { "player_name": "Borna Sosa", "ranking": 4139 }, { "player_name": "Nathan Broadhead", "ranking": 4140 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.314, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.314, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.602, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9831, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 18.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (1 historical appearances) to 16.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.60); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 18.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4424, "tackles": 0.5725, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "clearances": 0.8882, "aerial_won": 0.7243, "total_shots": 0.2518, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 17.67, "total_pass": 13.0, "accurate_pass": 9.0, "duels_won": 3.0, "total_long_balls": 1.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.0, "possession_lost": 5.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.0, "total_progression": 12.9283, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2518 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 1.0, "aerialWon": 2.0, "totalClearance_p90": 5.2941, "totalTackle": 1.0, "totalPass": 13.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.4423762857913971, "model_output": 0.4424, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4708 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0371 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0147 } ], "others": 0.0062, "total": 0.4424, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.796758 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.091727 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.044733 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.039749 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.034242 } ], "others_margin": 0.014179 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5725430250167847, "model_output": 0.5725, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8394 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0209 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0163 } ], "others": -0.0175, "total": 0.5725, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.921762 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.037904 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.036916 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.033182 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.028086 } ], "others_margin": -0.03025 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3489009141921997, "model_output": 0.3489, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4802 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": -0.025, "total": 0.3489, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.825748 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.032984 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.031267 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.030646 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.028152 } ], "others_margin": -0.069028 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.8882107734680176, "model_output": 0.8882, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.2526 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2401 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1524 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0495 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0337 } ], "others": 0.0977, "total": 0.8882, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.057443 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.22351 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.173086 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.063308 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.043519 } ], "others_margin": 0.1165 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.7243046164512634, "model_output": 0.7243, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8084 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1155 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0704 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0452 } ], "others": -0.0498, "total": 0.7243, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.879332 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.183464 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.097291 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.075783 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.056755 } ], "others_margin": -0.066547 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.25182509422302246, "model_output": 0.2518, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1549 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0521 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0254 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0209 } ], "others": 0.0106, "total": 0.2518, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.15493 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.0521 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025411 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.023375 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.020914 } ], "others_margin": 0.010672 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.679133415222168, "model_output": 6.6791, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0416 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0273 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0173 } ], "others": -0.0614, "total": 6.6791, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.041561 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.027308 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.022799 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.018841 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.017311 } ], "others_margin": -0.061299 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9831, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4349, "tackles": 0.5629, "tackles_won": 0.343, "clearances": 0.8732, "aerial_won": 0.7121, "total_shots": 0.2476, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 17.67, "total_pass": 12.7803, "accurate_pass": 8.8479, "duels_won": 2.9493, "total_long_balls": 0.9831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8986, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8986, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8817, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9493, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.6789, "possession_lost": 4.9155, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9662, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.9831, "total_progression": 12.7098, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2475 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9831, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4388, "tackles": 0.5629, "tackles_won": 0.3405, "clearances": 0.8732, "aerial_won": 0.7121, "total_shots": 0.2458, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 17.67, "total_pass": 12.7803, "accurate_pass": 8.8479, "duels_won": 2.9493, "total_long_balls": 0.9831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8986, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8986, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8817, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9493, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.6789, "possession_lost": 4.9155, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9662, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.9831, "total_progression": 12.7098, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2475 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 1, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1963, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.7 to 16.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3976, "tackles": 0.51, "tackles_won": 0.3085, "clearances": 0.7912, "aerial_won": 0.6452, "total_shots": 0.2242, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2242, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 16.01, "projection_minutes": 17.67, "minutes_scale": 0.9061, "appearance_probability": 0.602 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3976, "tackles": 0.51, "tackles_won": 0.3085, "clearances": 0.7912, "aerial_won": 0.6452, "total_shots": 0.2242, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2242, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.4499, xG scale 0.9725, xA scale 1.4098, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3976, "tackles": 0.51, "tackles_won": 0.3085, "clearances": 0.7912, "aerial_won": 0.6452, "total_shots": 0.2242, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2242, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9766 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4499, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6501, "team_expected_assists": 0.9165, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9725, "xa_scale": 1.4098, "opponent_lambda": 1.302, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.602 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3976, "tackles": 0.51, "tackles_won": 0.3085, "clearances": 0.7912, "aerial_won": 0.6452, "total_shots": 0.2242, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2242, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9766, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4135, "fifa_rank": 3264.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3976, "tackles": 0.51, "tackles_won": 0.3085, "clearances": 0.7912, "aerial_won": 0.6452, "total_shots": 0.2242, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2242, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9766, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 1.4921, "weight_share": 0.0007, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 0.602, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Leif Davis", "weight": 0.389, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.389, "runner_up": "Emersonn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3227 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3976, "tackles": 0.51, "tackles_won": 0.3085, "clearances": 0.7912, "aerial_won": 0.6452, "total_shots": 0.2242, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2242, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.001, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9766, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.001, "provider_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 0.9377, "weight_share": 0.0011, "creation_factor": 0.9766, "appearance_weight": 0.602, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julio Enciso", "weight": 0.1888, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1888, "runner_up": "Saša Lukić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1387, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Leif Davis" ] } ] } } ] }, "Florentino Luís": { "player_id": 855845, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 184, "market_value": 15500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assist_rate": 0.0428, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6789, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 24, "possession_lost": 5.6288, "dispossessed": 0.3318, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363651, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023960, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Burnley", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 53, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023950, "match_date": "2026-05-18", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Burnley", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023929, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Burnley", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0117, "expected_assists": 0.0362, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Burnley", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024003, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Burnley", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025041, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Burnley", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024002, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Burnley", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "expected_assists": 0.0509, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023941, "match_date": "2026-03-03", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Burnley", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 38, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1822, "combined_rank_score": 714.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 704.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6935, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 725.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6789, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Florentino Luís", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alejandro Balde", "ranking": 1817 }, { "player_name": "José Luis Morales", "ranking": 1818 }, { "player_name": "Guido Rodríguez", "ranking": 1819 }, { "player_name": "Wesley Fofana", "ranking": 1820 }, { "player_name": "Marten de Roon", "ranking": 1821 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Benjamin André", "ranking": 1823 }, { "player_name": "Konstantinos Mavropanos", "ranking": 1824 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Tagliafico", "ranking": 1825 }, { "player_name": "Joaquín Soto", "ranking": 1826 }, { "player_name": "Jeon Seong-jin", "ranking": 1827 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 33, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.555021941280785, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5252282700582175, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0031, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (33 historical appearances) to 22.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.53)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2982, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "assists": 0.0339, "assist_rate": 0.0339, "expected_goals": 0.0173, "goals": 0.0214, "goal_rate": 0.0214, "shots_on_target": 0.0758, "total_shots": 0.3286, "rating": 6.6789, "minutes": 17.9, "total_pass": 14.0197, "accurate_pass": 10.5405, "duels_won": 1.5582, "total_long_balls": 1.059, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4418, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2439, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.1774, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7758, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3632, "crosses_total": 0.1753, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.8051, "possession_lost": 4.4533, "dispossessed": 0.3308, "duels_lost": 1.691, "aerial_won": 0.0661, "aerial_lost": 0.5543, "interceptions": 0.3328, "tackles_won": 0.3969, "tackles": 0.9048, "clearances": 0.5855, "total_contest": 0.4267, "won_contest": 0.2829, "challenges_lost": 0.3781, "fouls": 0.2839, "fouls_drawn": 0.3045, "blocks": 0.4995, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5003, "total_progression": 7.6379, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2528 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1507, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1281, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1089, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-18", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 87.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-03", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 57.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.3772, "creative_index": 0.2492, "expectedGoals": 0.0095, "expectedAssists": 0.0137, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.1115 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.29818210005760193, "model_output": 0.2982, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3854 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.059 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0327 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0299 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0233 } ], "others": -0.0577, "total": 0.2982, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.570806 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.125319 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.076901 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.076007 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.06351 } ], "others_margin": -0.176692 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.022248361259698868, "model_output": 0.0222, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0028 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": -0.0082, "total": 0.0222, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.550738 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.199909 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.148937 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.08211 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.055378 } ], "others_margin": -0.312368 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.03392157703638077, "model_output": 0.0339, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.024 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0092, "total": 0.0339, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.330246 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.121803 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.098815 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.072078 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.059662 } ], "others_margin": -0.238695 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.01729230396449566, "model_output": 0.0173, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0025 } ], "others": -0.0049, "total": 0.0173, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.471259 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.460036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.216604 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.194188 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.107489 } ], "others_margin": -0.248001 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.02142191305756569, "model_output": 0.0214, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0346 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0095, "total": 0.0214, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.437625 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.280367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.24243 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.098252 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.089797 } ], "others_margin": -0.368458 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.07576979696750641, "model_output": 0.0758, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1351 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.048 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0293 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0076 } ], "others": -0.0154, "total": 0.0758, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.539409 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.293164 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.232766 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.122255 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.07988 } ], "others_margin": -0.185543 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3285444676876068, "model_output": 0.3285, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3167 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1901 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0395 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0384 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0342 } ], "others": -0.0431, "total": 0.3285, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.316743 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.190093 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.039454 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.038383 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.034228 } ], "others_margin": -0.04302 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.678853511810303, "model_output": 6.6789, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0863 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0399 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0101 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0073 } ], "others": -0.0281, "total": 6.6789, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.086274 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.03992 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018451 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.010065 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.007346 } ], "others_margin": -0.028091 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0031, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2991, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "assists": 0.034, "assist_rate": 0.034, "expected_goals": 0.0173, "goals": 0.0215, "goal_rate": 0.0215, "shots_on_target": 0.076, "total_shots": 0.3296, "rating": 6.6789, "minutes": 17.9, "total_pass": 14.0632, "accurate_pass": 10.5732, "duels_won": 1.563, "total_long_balls": 1.0623, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4432, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2602, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.1903, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.803, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3829, "crosses_total": 0.1758, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.8634, "possession_lost": 4.4671, "dispossessed": 0.3318, "duels_lost": 1.6962, "aerial_won": 0.0663, "aerial_lost": 0.556, "interceptions": 0.3338, "tackles_won": 0.3981, "tackles": 0.9076, "clearances": 0.5873, "total_contest": 0.428, "won_contest": 0.2838, "challenges_lost": 0.3793, "fouls": 0.2848, "fouls_drawn": 0.3054, "blocks": 0.501, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5112, "total_progression": 7.6616, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2536 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15500000, "quality_factor": 0.5846, "boost_factor": 1.0031, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.9 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3769, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assists": 0.0428, "assist_rate": 0.0428, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "goals": 0.0271, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "shots_on_target": 0.0958, "total_shots": 0.4154, "rating": 6.6789, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 17.7204, "accurate_pass": 13.3228, "duels_won": 1.9695, "total_long_balls": 1.3386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5585, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6282, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.28, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0428, "crosses_total": 0.2215, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.769, "possession_lost": 5.6288, "dispossessed": 0.3318, "duels_lost": 2.1373, "aerial_won": 0.0835, "aerial_lost": 0.556, "interceptions": 0.4206, "tackles_won": 0.5016, "tackles": 1.1436, "clearances": 0.74, "total_contest": 0.5393, "won_contest": 0.3576, "challenges_lost": 0.3793, "fouls": 0.3589, "fouls_drawn": 0.3848, "blocks": 0.6313, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4243, "total_progression": 9.6541, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3196, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.56, "projection_minutes": 17.9, "minutes_scale": 1.2601, "appearance_probability": 0.525 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3769, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assists": 0.0428, "assist_rate": 0.0428, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "goals": 0.0271, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "shots_on_target": 0.0958, "total_shots": 0.4154, "rating": 6.6789, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 17.7204, "accurate_pass": 13.3228, "duels_won": 1.9695, "total_long_balls": 1.3386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5585, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6282, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.28, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0428, "crosses_total": 0.2215, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.769, "possession_lost": 5.6288, "dispossessed": 0.3318, "duels_lost": 2.1373, "aerial_won": 0.0835, "aerial_lost": 0.556, "interceptions": 0.4206, "tackles_won": 0.5016, "tackles": 1.1436, "clearances": 0.74, "total_contest": 0.5393, "won_contest": 0.3576, "challenges_lost": 0.3793, "fouls": 0.3589, "fouls_drawn": 0.3848, "blocks": 0.6313, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4243, "total_progression": 9.6541, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3196, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3769, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assist_rate": 0.0428, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0958, "total_shots": 0.4154, "rating": 6.6789, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 17.7204, "accurate_pass": 13.3228, "duels_won": 1.9695, "total_long_balls": 1.3386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5585, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6282, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.28, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0428, "crosses_total": 0.2215, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.769, "possession_lost": 5.6288, "dispossessed": 0.3318, "duels_lost": 2.1373, "aerial_won": 0.0835, "aerial_lost": 0.556, "interceptions": 0.4206, "tackles_won": 0.5016, "tackles": 1.1436, "clearances": 0.74, "total_contest": 0.5393, "won_contest": 0.3576, "challenges_lost": 0.3793, "fouls": 0.3589, "fouls_drawn": 0.3848, "blocks": 0.6313, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4243, "total_progression": 9.6541, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3196, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.525, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3769, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assist_rate": 0.0428, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "goal_rate": 0.0271, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0958, "total_shots": 0.4154, "rating": 6.6789, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 17.7204, "accurate_pass": 13.3228, "duels_won": 1.9695, "total_long_balls": 1.3386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5585, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6282, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.28, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0428, "crosses_total": 0.2215, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.769, "possession_lost": 5.6288, "dispossessed": 0.3318, "duels_lost": 2.1373, "aerial_won": 0.0835, "aerial_lost": 0.556, "interceptions": 0.4206, "tackles_won": 0.5016, "tackles": 1.1436, "clearances": 0.74, "total_contest": 0.5393, "won_contest": 0.3576, "challenges_lost": 0.3793, "fouls": 0.3589, "fouls_drawn": 0.3848, "blocks": 0.6313, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4243, "total_progression": 9.6541, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3196, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1822, "fifa_rank": 725.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } } ] }, "Marcelino Núñez": { "player_id": 1014801, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 32, "height": 173, "market_value": 14900000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0407, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0191, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7244, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 36, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 55, "possession_lost": 8.7234, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 2, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.318, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.53, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0327, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 39, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3864, "combined_rank_score": 1858.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 3271.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7244, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marcelino Núñez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ellyes Skhiri", "ranking": 3859 }, { "player_name": "Maximilian Eggestein", "ranking": 3860 }, { "player_name": "Dani Raba", "ranking": 3861 }, { "player_name": "Ragnar Ache", "ranking": 3862 }, { "player_name": "Dimitris Giannoulis", "ranking": 3863 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Finn Dahmen", "ranking": 3865 }, { "player_name": "Keven Schlotterbeck", "ranking": 3866 }, { "player_name": "Paulo Díaz", "ranking": 3867 }, { "player_name": "Arouna Sangante", "ranking": 3868 }, { "player_name": "Han-Noah Massengo", "ranking": 3869 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.391, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.391, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.529229468224443, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.318, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0157, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (2 historical appearances) to 22.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.32); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.356, "expected_assists": 0.0338, "assists": 0.0487, "assist_rate": 0.0487, "expected_goals": 0.0159, "goals": 0.0329, "goal_rate": 0.0329, "shots_on_target": 0.0834, "total_shots": 0.2201, "rating": 6.7244, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 34.5135, "accurate_pass": 29.8108, "duels_won": 2.3784, "total_long_balls": 2.0811, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5406, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8378, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2162, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6757, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.5946, "crosses_total": 1.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.4595, "touches": 45.7297, "possession_lost": 7.2432, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.4595, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4595, "tackles_won": 0.4595, "tackles": 1.4595, "clearances": 2.0, "total_contest": 0.9189, "won_contest": 0.9189, "challenges_lost": 3.0, "fouls": 0.4595, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.5405, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.7568, "total_progression": 1.2313, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1367 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 7.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.4595, "creative_index": 0.2327, "expectedGoals": 0.015, "expectedAssists": 0.0275, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.356009304523468, "model_output": 0.356, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3981 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0458 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0301 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0155 } ], "others": -0.022, "total": 0.356, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.596325 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.098489 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.070411 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.0463 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.040043 } ], "others_margin": -0.060416 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03379977121949196, "model_output": 0.0338, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.006 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0018 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": -0.0074, "total": 0.0338, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.588951 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.133941 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.072147 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.040023 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.039791 } ], "others_margin": -0.200697 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.04867870360612869, "model_output": 0.0487, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0224 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0063 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.004 } ], "others": -0.0058, "total": 0.0487, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.304766 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.094824 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.093044 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.074563 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.071486 } ], "others_margin": -0.111072 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.015888715162873268, "model_output": 0.0159, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0441 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0024 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0018 } ], "others": -0.0066, "total": 0.0159, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.62958 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.436929 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.194759 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.092406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.077303 } ], "others_margin": -0.351255 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.03285185247659683, "model_output": 0.0329, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0305 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0045 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0034 } ], "others": -0.0098, "total": 0.0329, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.374952 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.256926 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.221362 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.103501 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.077161 } ], "others_margin": -0.262434 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.08342165499925613, "model_output": 0.0834, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1371 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0497 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.004 } ], "others": -0.0144, "total": 0.0834, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.550182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.309483 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.19521 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.10388 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.040364 } ], "others_margin": -0.157692 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2200859636068344, "model_output": 0.2201, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3281 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1859 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0388 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0286 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0271 } ], "others": -0.1619, "total": 0.2201, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.32806 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.185868 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.038771 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.028611 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.027059 } ], "others_margin": -0.162009 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.724410533905029, "model_output": 6.7244, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0955 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0394 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0134 } ], "others": -0.0471, "total": 6.7244, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.095535 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.039442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.018197 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016543 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.013406 } ], "others_margin": -0.047033 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0157, quality 0.578)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3616, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "assists": 0.0494, "assist_rate": 0.0494, "expected_goals": 0.0161, "goals": 0.0334, "goal_rate": 0.0334, "shots_on_target": 0.0847, "total_shots": 0.2236, "rating": 6.7244, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 35.0554, "accurate_pass": 30.2788, "duels_won": 2.4157, "total_long_balls": 2.1138, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5648, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4237, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8551, "crosses_total": 1.0157, "crosses_accurate": 0.4667, "touches": 46.4477, "possession_lost": 7.3569, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.5138, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4667, "tackles_won": 0.4667, "tackles": 1.4824, "clearances": 2.0314, "total_contest": 0.9333, "won_contest": 0.9333, "challenges_lost": 3.0471, "fouls": 0.4667, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.5647, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.0042, "total_progression": 1.2506, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1388 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14900000, "quality_factor": 0.5781, "boost_factor": 1.0157, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0495)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3616, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "assists": 0.047, "assist_rate": 0.047, "expected_goals": 0.0161, "goals": 0.0317, "goal_rate": 0.0317, "shots_on_target": 0.0805, "total_shots": 0.2192, "rating": 6.7244, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 35.0554, "accurate_pass": 30.2788, "duels_won": 2.4157, "total_long_balls": 2.1138, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5648, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4237, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8551, "crosses_total": 0.9719, "crosses_accurate": 0.4667, "touches": 46.4477, "possession_lost": 7.3569, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.5138, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4501, "tackles_won": 0.4501, "tackles": 1.4824, "clearances": 2.0314, "total_contest": 0.9333, "won_contest": 0.9333, "challenges_lost": 3.0471, "fouls": 0.4501, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.5647, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.0042, "total_progression": 1.2506, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1388 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0495, "history_matches": 2, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2111, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.0157, "after": 0.9719 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.4667, "after": 0.4501 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.4667, "after": 0.4501 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.4667, "after": 0.4501 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.32)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4288, "expected_assists": 0.0407, "assists": 0.0557, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "expected_goals": 0.0191, "goals": 0.0376, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "shots_on_target": 0.0955, "total_shots": 0.2601, "rating": 6.7244, "minutes": 22.53, "total_pass": 41.5669, "accurate_pass": 35.9031, "duels_won": 2.8644, "total_long_balls": 2.5064, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8555, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8702, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.9171, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6967, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9859, "crosses_total": 1.1524, "crosses_accurate": 0.5534, "touches": 55.0753, "possession_lost": 8.7234, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.1665, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5337, "tackles_won": 0.5337, "tackles": 1.7578, "clearances": 2.4087, "total_contest": 1.1067, "won_contest": 1.1067, "challenges_lost": 3.0471, "fouls": 0.5337, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.8553, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.977, "total_progression": 1.4829, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1646, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.318, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.53 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.53, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.1857, "appearance_probability": 0.318 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4288, "expected_assists": 0.0407, "assists": 0.0557, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "expected_goals": 0.0191, "goals": 0.0376, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "shots_on_target": 0.0955, "total_shots": 0.2601, "rating": 6.7244, "minutes": 22.53, "total_pass": 41.5669, "accurate_pass": 35.9031, "duels_won": 2.8644, "total_long_balls": 2.5064, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8555, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8702, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.9171, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6967, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9859, "crosses_total": 1.1524, "crosses_accurate": 0.5534, "touches": 55.0753, "possession_lost": 8.7234, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.1665, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5337, "tackles_won": 0.5337, "tackles": 1.7578, "clearances": 2.4087, "total_contest": 1.1067, "won_contest": 1.1067, "challenges_lost": 3.0471, "fouls": 0.5337, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.8553, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.977, "total_progression": 1.4829, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1646, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.318, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.53 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4288, "expected_assists": 0.0407, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0191, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0955, "total_shots": 0.2601, "rating": 6.7244, "minutes": 22.53, "total_pass": 41.5669, "accurate_pass": 35.9031, "duels_won": 2.8644, "total_long_balls": 2.5064, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8555, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8702, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.9171, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6967, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9859, "crosses_total": 1.1524, "crosses_accurate": 0.5534, "touches": 55.0753, "possession_lost": 8.7234, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.1665, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5337, "tackles_won": 0.5337, "tackles": 1.7578, "clearances": 2.4087, "total_contest": 1.1067, "won_contest": 1.1067, "challenges_lost": 3.0471, "fouls": 0.5337, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.8553, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.977, "total_progression": 1.4829, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1646, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.318, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.53, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.318, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4288, "expected_assists": 0.0407, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0191, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0955, "total_shots": 0.2601, "rating": 6.7244, "minutes": 22.53, "total_pass": 41.5669, "accurate_pass": 35.9031, "duels_won": 2.8644, "total_long_balls": 2.5064, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8555, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8702, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.9171, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6967, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9859, "crosses_total": 1.1524, "crosses_accurate": 0.5534, "touches": 55.0753, "possession_lost": 8.7234, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.1665, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5337, "tackles_won": 0.5337, "tackles": 1.7578, "clearances": 2.4087, "total_contest": 1.1067, "won_contest": 1.1067, "challenges_lost": 3.0471, "fouls": 0.5337, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.8553, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.977, "total_progression": 1.4829, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1646, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.318, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.53, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3864, "fifa_rank": 3271.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } } ] }, "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku": { "player_id": 1103589, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 180, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0752, "goal_rate": 0.078, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0762, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6391, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 8, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 7, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 19.904, "dispossessed": 1.9444, "duels_lost": 10, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.2192, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0121, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 132, "progressive_carries": 5, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.35, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363651, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1415, "expected_assists": 0.2771, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0503, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363261, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0306, "expected_assists": 0.1504, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.2196, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.4052, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 685, "combined_rank_score": 360.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 385.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6391, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Iván Ramírez", "ranking": 680 }, { "player_name": "Khellven", "ranking": 681 }, { "player_name": "Pedro Gallese", "ranking": 682 }, { "player_name": "Erick Pulgar", "ranking": 683 }, { "player_name": "Andraž Šporar", "ranking": 684 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kahiser Lenis", "ranking": 686 }, { "player_name": "Oleksandr Zinchenko", "ranking": 687 }, { "player_name": "Germán Valera", "ranking": 688 }, { "player_name": "Adrià Altimira", "ranking": 689 }, { "player_name": "Kepa Arrizabalaga", "ranking": 690 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.579, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.579, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.09746860076133, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.35, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0204, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.625, "prior_reliability": 0.1067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (5 historical appearances) to 26.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.35); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0565, "goals": 0.0607, "goal_rate": 0.0607, "shots_on_target": 0.1966, "total_shots": 0.6524, "expected_assists": 0.0573, "key_pass": 0.4428, "rating": 6.6391, "minutes": 20.0, "total_pass": 15.1382, "accurate_pass": 10.9411, "duels_won": 5.8469, "total_long_balls": 1.5355, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8688, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8696, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.958, "crosses_total": 5.3587, "crosses_accurate": 1.9252, "touches": 38.2834, "possession_lost": 14.9486, "dispossessed": 1.9055, "duels_lost": 7.1962, "aerial_lost": 0.7803, "total_contest": 4.2632, "won_contest": 2.3407, "ball_recovery": 2.2292, "challenges_lost": 0.6711, "fouls": 2.1864, "fouls_drawn": 1.3107, "assists": 0.1656, "assist_rate": 0.1656, "interceptions": 1.104, "tackles_won": 1.0659, "tackles": 1.5766, "clearances": 0.5896, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.921, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0091, "offsides": 0.1656, "ball_carries": 13.8113, "total_progression": 99.3495, "progressive_carries": 3.9581, "shots_off_target": 0.4557 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 7.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0441, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 9.8696, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 6.9581, "accuratePass": 10.941, "totalShots": 0.9289 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.056451767683029175, "model_output": 0.0565, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.074 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0052 } ], "others": -0.0223, "total": 0.0565, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.464858 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.209501 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.095279 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.093338 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.064364 } ], "others_margin": -0.332351 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.0607023648917675, "model_output": 0.0607, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0714 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0068 } ], "others": -0.0209, "total": 0.0607, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.431538 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.156229 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.143333 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.1039 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.080005 } ], "others_margin": -0.295901 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.19663837552070618, "model_output": 0.1966, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2027 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.025 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0161 } ], "others": -0.058, "total": 0.1966, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.474065 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.07786 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.070277 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.062967 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.061395 } ], "others_margin": -0.258029 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6523854732513428, "model_output": 0.6524, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4203 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1069 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0699 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0534 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0467 } ], "others": -0.1689, "total": 0.6524, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.420286 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.106945 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.069949 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.053351 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.046697 } ], "others_margin": -0.168991 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.05728033185005188, "model_output": 0.0573, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0063 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0037 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0037 } ], "others": 0.0035, "total": 0.0573, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.383907 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.133521 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07769 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.076606 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.07183 } ], "others_margin": 0.064296 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4427712559700012, "model_output": 0.4428, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2796 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0305 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.029 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0281 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.027 } ], "others": -0.01, "total": 0.4428, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.53601 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.074572 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.066136 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.064003 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.061526 } ], "others_margin": -0.022365 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6391425132751465, "model_output": 6.6391, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0447 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0263 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0413, "total": 6.6391, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.044684 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.026258 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.019904 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.018357 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.012285 } ], "others_margin": -0.041338 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0204, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0576, "goals": 0.0619, "goal_rate": 0.0619, "shots_on_target": 0.2006, "total_shots": 0.6657, "expected_assists": 0.0584, "key_pass": 0.4518, "rating": 6.6391, "minutes": 20.0, "total_pass": 15.447, "accurate_pass": 11.1643, "duels_won": 5.9662, "total_long_balls": 1.5668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8865, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0999, "crosses_total": 5.468, "crosses_accurate": 1.9645, "touches": 39.0644, "possession_lost": 15.2536, "dispossessed": 1.9444, "duels_lost": 7.343, "aerial_lost": 0.7962, "total_contest": 4.3502, "won_contest": 2.3885, "ball_recovery": 2.2747, "challenges_lost": 0.6848, "fouls": 2.231, "fouls_drawn": 1.3374, "assists": 0.169, "assist_rate": 0.169, "interceptions": 1.1265, "tackles_won": 1.0876, "tackles": 1.6088, "clearances": 0.6016, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.9398, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0093, "offsides": 0.169, "ball_carries": 14.0931, "total_progression": 101.3762, "progressive_carries": 4.0388, "shots_off_target": 0.465 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0204, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0347)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0576, "goals": 0.0598, "goal_rate": 0.0598, "shots_on_target": 0.1936, "total_shots": 0.6426, "expected_assists": 0.0584, "key_pass": 0.4518, "rating": 6.6391, "minutes": 20.0, "total_pass": 15.447, "accurate_pass": 11.1643, "duels_won": 5.9662, "total_long_balls": 1.5668, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8865, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0999, "crosses_total": 5.3265, "crosses_accurate": 1.9645, "touches": 39.0644, "possession_lost": 15.2536, "dispossessed": 1.9444, "duels_lost": 7.343, "aerial_lost": 0.7962, "total_contest": 4.3502, "won_contest": 2.3885, "ball_recovery": 2.2747, "challenges_lost": 0.6848, "fouls": 2.1633, "fouls_drawn": 1.3055, "assists": 0.168, "assist_rate": 0.168, "interceptions": 1.0923, "tackles_won": 1.0643, "tackles": 1.6088, "clearances": 0.6016, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.9398, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0093, "offsides": 0.168, "ball_carries": 14.0931, "total_progression": 101.3762, "progressive_carries": 4.0388, "shots_off_target": 0.465 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0347, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2222, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 5.468, "after": 5.3265 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 2.231, "after": 2.1633 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1265, "after": 1.0923 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.3374, "after": 1.3055 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.0876, "after": 1.0643 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6657, "after": 0.6426 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2006, "after": 0.1936 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.0 to 26.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.35)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0752, "goals": 0.078, "goal_rate": 0.078, "shots_on_target": 0.2526, "total_shots": 0.8594, "expected_assists": 0.0762, "key_pass": 0.5895, "rating": 6.6391, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 20.1564, "accurate_pass": 14.568, "duels_won": 7.7851, "total_long_balls": 2.0445, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1568, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1412, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2645, "crosses_total": 6.9504, "crosses_accurate": 2.5634, "touches": 50.9741, "possession_lost": 19.904, "dispossessed": 1.9444, "duels_lost": 9.5817, "aerial_lost": 0.7962, "total_contest": 5.6765, "won_contest": 3.1167, "ball_recovery": 2.9682, "challenges_lost": 0.6848, "fouls": 2.8228, "fouls_drawn": 1.7035, "assists": 0.2192, "assist_rate": 0.2192, "interceptions": 1.4253, "tackles_won": 1.3888, "tackles": 2.0993, "clearances": 0.785, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 1.2263, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0121, "offsides": 0.168, "ball_carries": 18.3897, "total_progression": 132.2831, "progressive_carries": 5.2701, "shots_off_target": 0.6068, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.35, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.1, "projection_minutes": 20.0, "minutes_scale": 1.3049, "appearance_probability": 0.35 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0752, "goals": 0.078, "goal_rate": 0.078, "shots_on_target": 0.2526, "total_shots": 0.8594, "expected_assists": 0.0762, "key_pass": 0.5895, "rating": 6.6391, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 20.1564, "accurate_pass": 14.568, "duels_won": 7.7851, "total_long_balls": 2.0445, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1568, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1412, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2645, "crosses_total": 6.9504, "crosses_accurate": 2.5634, "touches": 50.9741, "possession_lost": 19.904, "dispossessed": 1.9444, "duels_lost": 9.5817, "aerial_lost": 0.7962, "total_contest": 5.6765, "won_contest": 3.1167, "ball_recovery": 2.9682, "challenges_lost": 0.6848, "fouls": 2.8228, "fouls_drawn": 1.7035, "assists": 0.2192, "assist_rate": 0.2192, "interceptions": 1.4253, "tackles_won": 1.3888, "tackles": 2.0993, "clearances": 0.785, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 1.2263, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0121, "offsides": 0.168, "ball_carries": 18.3897, "total_progression": 132.2831, "progressive_carries": 5.2701, "shots_off_target": 0.6068, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.35, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0752, "goal_rate": 0.078, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2526, "total_shots": 0.8594, "expected_assists": 0.0762, "key_pass": 0.5895, "rating": 6.6391, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 20.1564, "accurate_pass": 14.568, "duels_won": 7.7851, "total_long_balls": 2.0445, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1568, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1412, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2645, "crosses_total": 6.9504, "crosses_accurate": 2.5634, "touches": 50.9741, "possession_lost": 19.904, "dispossessed": 1.9444, "duels_lost": 9.5817, "aerial_lost": 0.7962, "total_contest": 5.6765, "won_contest": 3.1167, "ball_recovery": 2.9682, "challenges_lost": 0.6848, "fouls": 2.8228, "fouls_drawn": 1.7035, "assist_rate": 0.2192, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.4253, "tackles_won": 1.3888, "tackles": 2.0993, "clearances": 0.785, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 1.2263, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0121, "offsides": 0.168, "ball_carries": 18.3897, "total_progression": 132.2831, "progressive_carries": 5.2701, "shots_off_target": 0.6068, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.35, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.35, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0752, "goal_rate": 0.078, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2526, "total_shots": 0.8594, "expected_assists": 0.0762, "key_pass": 0.5895, "rating": 6.6391, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 20.1564, "accurate_pass": 14.568, "duels_won": 7.7851, "total_long_balls": 2.0445, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1568, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1412, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2645, "crosses_total": 6.9504, "crosses_accurate": 2.5634, "touches": 50.9741, "possession_lost": 19.904, "dispossessed": 1.9444, "duels_lost": 9.5817, "aerial_lost": 0.7962, "total_contest": 5.6765, "won_contest": 3.1167, "ball_recovery": 2.9682, "challenges_lost": 0.6848, "fouls": 2.8228, "fouls_drawn": 1.7035, "assist_rate": 0.2192, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.4253, "tackles_won": 1.3888, "tackles": 2.0993, "clearances": 0.785, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 1.2263, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0121, "offsides": 0.168, "ball_carries": 18.3897, "total_progression": 132.2831, "progressive_carries": 5.2701, "shots_off_target": 0.6068, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.35, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 685, "fifa_rank": 385.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } } ] }, "Sindre Walle Egeli": { "player_id": 1154598, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 182, "market_value": 15900000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1563, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.023, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.89, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0848, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0133, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5050, "combined_rank_score": 3240.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 915.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 5566.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.5285, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sindre Walle Egeli", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Enric Llansana", "ranking": 5045 }, { "player_name": "Björn Meijer", "ranking": 5046 }, { "player_name": "Félix Lemaréchal", "ranking": 5047 }, { "player_name": "Myron van Brederode", "ranking": 5048 }, { "player_name": "Moussa N'Diaye", "ranking": 5049 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Fedde Leysen", "ranking": 5051 }, { "player_name": "Joris van Overeem", "ranking": 5052 }, { "player_name": "Joris Kramer", "ranking": 5053 }, { "player_name": "Philippe Sandler", "ranking": 5054 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Lotomba", "ranking": 5055 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.89205951518874, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5860027052358519, "market_value_adjustment": 1.021, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (1 historical appearances) to 25.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.59)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1049, "goals": 0.0716, "goal_rate": 0.0716, "shots_on_target": 0.2909, "total_shots": 0.5923, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "key_pass": 0.1871, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 16.67, "total_pass": 1.0, "accurate_pass": 1.0, "duels_won": 1.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 2.0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.0, "total_progression": 0.3992, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3014 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 0.0, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 0.0, "accuratePass": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.10486545413732529, "model_output": 0.1049, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0705 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0051 } ], "others": -0.0019, "total": 0.1049, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.43772 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.159504 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.104703 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.084358 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.046283 } ], "others_margin": -0.017237 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07159316539764404, "model_output": 0.0716, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0726 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0068 } ], "others": -0.0117, "total": 0.0716, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.440743 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.194011 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.094327 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.087384 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.078041 } ], "others_margin": -0.151385 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2909065783023834, "model_output": 0.2909, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1809 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0212 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0184 } ], "others": -0.0271, "total": 0.2909, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.410818 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.061779 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.061388 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.05674 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.056414 } ], "others_margin": -0.088595 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5922837853431702, "model_output": 0.5923, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4775 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1279 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0619 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0591 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0353 } ], "others": -0.1485, "total": 0.5923, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.477477 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.127881 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.061879 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.05914 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.035325 } ], "others_margin": -0.148479 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.010647126473486423, "model_output": 0.0106, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0018 } ], "others": -0.0074, "total": 0.0106, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.453458 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.28114 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.279414 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.169729 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.098205 } ], "others_margin": -0.516065 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.18713104724884033, "model_output": 0.1871, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2825 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0633 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0303 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0736, "total": 0.1871, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.543304 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.176261 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.096965 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.068293 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.065121 } ], "others_margin": -0.331443 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.5284576416015625, "model_output": 6.5285, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0533 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0139 } ], "others": -0.1114, "total": 6.5285, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.053293 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.018757 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.018553 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017749 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.013875 } ], "others_margin": -0.111476 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0210, quality 0.589)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1071, "goals": 0.0731, "goal_rate": 0.0731, "shots_on_target": 0.297, "total_shots": 0.6047, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "key_pass": 0.1911, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 16.67, "total_pass": 1.021, "accurate_pass": 1.021, "duels_won": 1.021, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 2.042, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.021, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.021, "fouls_drawn": 1.021, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.042, "total_progression": 0.4076, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3077 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15900000, "quality_factor": 0.5889, "boost_factor": 1.021, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.7 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1607, "goals": 0.1096, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "shots_on_target": 0.4455, "total_shots": 0.9071, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "key_pass": 0.2866, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 25.89, "total_pass": 1.5315, "accurate_pass": 1.5315, "duels_won": 1.5315, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 3.063, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5315, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5315, "fouls_drawn": 1.5315, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.063, "total_progression": 0.6114, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.89 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.89, "projection_minutes": 16.67, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.586 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1607, "goals": 0.1096, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "shots_on_target": 0.4455, "total_shots": 0.9071, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "key_pass": 0.2866, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 25.89, "total_pass": 1.5315, "accurate_pass": 1.5315, "duels_won": 1.5315, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 3.063, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5315, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5315, "fouls_drawn": 1.5315, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.063, "total_progression": 0.6114, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.89 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.4499, xG scale 0.9725, xA scale 1.4098, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1563, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4455, "total_shots": 0.9071, "expected_assists": 0.023, "key_pass": 0.2866, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 25.89, "total_pass": 1.5315, "accurate_pass": 1.5315, "duels_won": 1.5315, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 3.063, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5315, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5315, "fouls_drawn": 1.5315, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.063, "total_progression": 0.6114, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.89, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4499, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6501, "team_expected_assists": 0.9165, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9725, "xa_scale": 1.4098, "opponent_lambda": 1.302, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.586 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0163, "after": 0.023 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 70.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1563, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4455, "total_shots": 0.9071, "expected_assists": 0.023, "key_pass": 0.2866, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 25.89, "total_pass": 1.5315, "accurate_pass": 1.5315, "duels_won": 1.5315, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 3.063, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5315, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5315, "fouls_drawn": 1.5315, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.063, "total_progression": 0.6114, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.89, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5050, "fifa_rank": 5566.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 70.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1563, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4455, "total_shots": 0.9071, "expected_assists": 0.023, "key_pass": 0.2866, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 25.89, "total_pass": 1.5315, "accurate_pass": 1.5315, "duels_won": 1.5315, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 3.063, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5315, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5315, "fouls_drawn": 1.5315, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.063, "total_progression": 0.6114, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.89, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0848, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0848, "scorer_weight": 0.0733, "squad_weight_total": 1.4921, "weight_share": 0.0491, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.586, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Leif Davis", "weight": 0.389, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.389, "runner_up": "Emersonn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3227 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1563, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4455, "total_shots": 0.9071, "expected_assists": 0.023, "key_pass": 0.2866, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 25.89, "total_pass": 1.5315, "accurate_pass": 1.5315, "duels_won": 1.5315, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 3.063, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5315, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5315, "fouls_drawn": 1.5315, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.063, "total_progression": 0.6114, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.89, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0848, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0133, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0133, "provider_weight": 0.0108, "squad_weight_total": 0.9377, "weight_share": 0.0115, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.586, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julio Enciso", "weight": 0.1888, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1888, "runner_up": "Saša Lukić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1387, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Leif Davis" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Darnell Furlong": { "player_id": 786022, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 180, "market_value": 2400000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.001, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9766, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4135, "combined_rank_score": 2132.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 1001.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.0, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 3264.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6791, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Darnell Furlong", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Isac Lidberg", "ranking": 4130 }, { "player_name": "Marcus Pedersen", "ranking": 4131 }, { "player_name": "Tyrique George", "ranking": 4132 }, { "player_name": "Yunus Musah", "ranking": 4133 }, { "player_name": "Florent Muslija", "ranking": 4134 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lucas Noubi", "ranking": 4136 }, { "player_name": "Marcão", "ranking": 4137 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Valentini", "ranking": 4138 }, { "player_name": "Borna Sosa", "ranking": 4139 }, { "player_name": "Nathan Broadhead", "ranking": 4140 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.314, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.314, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.602, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9831, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Ipswich Town", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 18.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (1 historical appearances) to 16.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.60); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 18.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4424, "tackles": 0.5725, "tackles_won": 0.3489, "clearances": 0.8882, "aerial_won": 0.7243, "total_shots": 0.2518, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 17.67, "total_pass": 13.0, "accurate_pass": 9.0, "duels_won": 3.0, "total_long_balls": 1.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.0, "possession_lost": 5.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.0, "total_progression": 12.9283, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2518 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 1.0, "aerialWon": 2.0, "totalClearance_p90": 5.2941, "totalTackle": 1.0, "totalPass": 13.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.4423762857913971, "model_output": 0.4424, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4708 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0371 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0147 } ], "others": 0.0062, "total": 0.4424, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.796758 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.091727 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.044733 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.039749 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.034242 } ], "others_margin": 0.014179 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5725430250167847, "model_output": 0.5725, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8394 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0209 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0163 } ], "others": -0.0175, "total": 0.5725, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.921762 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.037904 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.036916 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.033182 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.028086 } ], "others_margin": -0.03025 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3489009141921997, "model_output": 0.3489, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4802 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": -0.025, "total": 0.3489, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.825748 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.032984 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.031267 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.030646 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.028152 } ], "others_margin": -0.069028 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.8882107734680176, "model_output": 0.8882, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.2526 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2401 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1524 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0495 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0337 } ], "others": 0.0977, "total": 0.8882, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.057443 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.22351 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.173086 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.063308 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.043519 } ], "others_margin": 0.1165 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.7243046164512634, "model_output": 0.7243, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8084 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1155 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0704 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0598 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0452 } ], "others": -0.0498, "total": 0.7243, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.879332 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.183464 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.097291 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.075783 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.056755 } ], "others_margin": -0.066547 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.25182509422302246, "model_output": 0.2518, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1549 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0521 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0254 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0209 } ], "others": 0.0106, "total": 0.2518, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.15493 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.0521 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025411 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.023375 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.020914 } ], "others_margin": 0.010672 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.679133415222168, "model_output": 6.6791, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0416 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0273 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0173 } ], "others": -0.0614, "total": 6.6791, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.041561 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.027308 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.022799 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.018841 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.017311 } ], "others_margin": -0.061299 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9831, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4349, "tackles": 0.5629, "tackles_won": 0.343, "clearances": 0.8732, "aerial_won": 0.7121, "total_shots": 0.2476, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 17.67, "total_pass": 12.7803, "accurate_pass": 8.8479, "duels_won": 2.9493, "total_long_balls": 0.9831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8986, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8986, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8817, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9493, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.6789, "possession_lost": 4.9155, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9662, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.9831, "total_progression": 12.7098, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2475 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9831, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4388, "tackles": 0.5629, "tackles_won": 0.3405, "clearances": 0.8732, "aerial_won": 0.7121, "total_shots": 0.2458, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 17.67, "total_pass": 12.7803, "accurate_pass": 8.8479, "duels_won": 2.9493, "total_long_balls": 0.9831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8986, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8986, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8817, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9493, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.6789, "possession_lost": 4.9155, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9662, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.9831, "total_progression": 12.7098, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2475 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 1, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1963, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.7 to 16.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3976, "tackles": 0.51, "tackles_won": 0.3085, "clearances": 0.7912, "aerial_won": 0.6452, "total_shots": 0.2242, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2242, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 16.01, "projection_minutes": 17.67, "minutes_scale": 0.9061, "appearance_probability": 0.602 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3976, "tackles": 0.51, "tackles_won": 0.3085, "clearances": 0.7912, "aerial_won": 0.6452, "total_shots": 0.2242, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2242, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.4499, xG scale 0.9725, xA scale 1.4098, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3976, "tackles": 0.51, "tackles_won": 0.3085, "clearances": 0.7912, "aerial_won": 0.6452, "total_shots": 0.2242, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2242, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9766 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4499, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6501, "team_expected_assists": 0.9165, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9725, "xa_scale": 1.4098, "opponent_lambda": 1.302, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.602 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3976, "tackles": 0.51, "tackles_won": 0.3085, "clearances": 0.7912, "aerial_won": 0.6452, "total_shots": 0.2242, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2242, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9766, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4135, "fifa_rank": 3264.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3976, "tackles": 0.51, "tackles_won": 0.3085, "clearances": 0.7912, "aerial_won": 0.6452, "total_shots": 0.2242, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2242, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9766, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 1.4921, "weight_share": 0.0007, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 0.602, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Leif Davis", "weight": 0.389, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.389, "runner_up": "Emersonn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3227 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3976, "tackles": 0.51, "tackles_won": 0.3085, "clearances": 0.7912, "aerial_won": 0.6452, "total_shots": 0.2242, "rating": 6.6791, "minutes": 16.01, "total_pass": 11.5797, "accurate_pass": 8.0167, "duels_won": 2.6722, "total_long_balls": 0.8907, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3445, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6722, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9241, "possession_lost": 4.4537, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7815, "aerial_lost": 0.9831, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.9831, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8907, "total_progression": 11.5158, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2242, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.001, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9766, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.001, "provider_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 0.9377, "weight_share": 0.0011, "creation_factor": 0.9766, "appearance_weight": 0.602, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julio Enciso", "weight": 0.1888, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1888, "runner_up": "Saša Lukić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1387, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Leif Davis" ] } ] } } ] }, "Sindre Walle Egeli": { "player_id": 1154598, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 182, "market_value": 15900000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1563, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.023, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.89, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0848, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0133, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5050, "combined_rank_score": 3240.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 915.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 5566.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.5285, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sindre Walle Egeli", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Enric Llansana", "ranking": 5045 }, { "player_name": "Björn Meijer", "ranking": 5046 }, { "player_name": "Félix Lemaréchal", "ranking": 5047 }, { "player_name": "Myron van Brederode", "ranking": 5048 }, { "player_name": "Moussa N'Diaye", "ranking": 5049 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Fedde Leysen", "ranking": 5051 }, { "player_name": "Joris van Overeem", "ranking": 5052 }, { "player_name": "Joris Kramer", "ranking": 5053 }, { "player_name": "Philippe Sandler", "ranking": 5054 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Lotomba", "ranking": 5055 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.89205951518874, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5860027052358519, "market_value_adjustment": 1.021, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (1 historical appearances) to 25.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.59)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1049, "goals": 0.0716, "goal_rate": 0.0716, "shots_on_target": 0.2909, "total_shots": 0.5923, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "key_pass": 0.1871, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 16.67, "total_pass": 1.0, "accurate_pass": 1.0, "duels_won": 1.0, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 2.0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.0, "total_progression": 0.3992, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3014 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 0.0, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 0.0, "accuratePass": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.10486545413732529, "model_output": 0.1049, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0705 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0051 } ], "others": -0.0019, "total": 0.1049, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.43772 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.159504 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.104703 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.084358 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.046283 } ], "others_margin": -0.017237 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07159316539764404, "model_output": 0.0716, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0726 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0068 } ], "others": -0.0117, "total": 0.0716, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.440743 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.194011 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.094327 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.087384 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.078041 } ], "others_margin": -0.151385 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2909065783023834, "model_output": 0.2909, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1809 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0212 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0184 } ], "others": -0.0271, "total": 0.2909, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.410818 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.061779 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.061388 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.05674 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.056414 } ], "others_margin": -0.088595 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5922837853431702, "model_output": 0.5923, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4775 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1279 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0619 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0591 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0353 } ], "others": -0.1485, "total": 0.5923, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.477477 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.127881 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.061879 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.05914 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.035325 } ], "others_margin": -0.148479 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.010647126473486423, "model_output": 0.0106, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0018 } ], "others": -0.0074, "total": 0.0106, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.453458 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.28114 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.279414 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.169729 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.098205 } ], "others_margin": -0.516065 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.18713104724884033, "model_output": 0.1871, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2825 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0633 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0303 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0736, "total": 0.1871, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.543304 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.176261 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.096965 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.068293 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.065121 } ], "others_margin": -0.331443 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.5284576416015625, "model_output": 6.5285, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0533 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0139 } ], "others": -0.1114, "total": 6.5285, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.053293 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.018757 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.018553 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017749 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.013875 } ], "others_margin": -0.111476 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0210, quality 0.589)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1071, "goals": 0.0731, "goal_rate": 0.0731, "shots_on_target": 0.297, "total_shots": 0.6047, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "key_pass": 0.1911, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 16.67, "total_pass": 1.021, "accurate_pass": 1.021, "duels_won": 1.021, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 2.042, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.021, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.021, "fouls_drawn": 1.021, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.042, "total_progression": 0.4076, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3077 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15900000, "quality_factor": 0.5889, "boost_factor": 1.021, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.7 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1607, "goals": 0.1096, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "shots_on_target": 0.4455, "total_shots": 0.9071, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "key_pass": 0.2866, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 25.89, "total_pass": 1.5315, "accurate_pass": 1.5315, "duels_won": 1.5315, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 3.063, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5315, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5315, "fouls_drawn": 1.5315, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.063, "total_progression": 0.6114, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.89 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.89, "projection_minutes": 16.67, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.586 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1607, "goals": 0.1096, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "shots_on_target": 0.4455, "total_shots": 0.9071, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "key_pass": 0.2866, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 25.89, "total_pass": 1.5315, "accurate_pass": 1.5315, "duels_won": 1.5315, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 3.063, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5315, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5315, "fouls_drawn": 1.5315, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.063, "total_progression": 0.6114, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.89 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 1.4499, xG scale 0.9725, xA scale 1.4098, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1563, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4455, "total_shots": 0.9071, "expected_assists": 0.023, "key_pass": 0.2866, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 25.89, "total_pass": 1.5315, "accurate_pass": 1.5315, "duels_won": 1.5315, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 3.063, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5315, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5315, "fouls_drawn": 1.5315, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.063, "total_progression": 0.6114, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.89, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.41, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4499, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6501, "team_expected_assists": 0.9165, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9725, "xa_scale": 1.4098, "opponent_lambda": 1.302, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.586 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0163, "after": 0.023 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 70.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1563, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4455, "total_shots": 0.9071, "expected_assists": 0.023, "key_pass": 0.2866, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 25.89, "total_pass": 1.5315, "accurate_pass": 1.5315, "duels_won": 1.5315, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 3.063, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5315, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5315, "fouls_drawn": 1.5315, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.063, "total_progression": 0.6114, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.89, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5050, "fifa_rank": 5566.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 70.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1563, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4455, "total_shots": 0.9071, "expected_assists": 0.023, "key_pass": 0.2866, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 25.89, "total_pass": 1.5315, "accurate_pass": 1.5315, "duels_won": 1.5315, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 3.063, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5315, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5315, "fouls_drawn": 1.5315, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.063, "total_progression": 0.6114, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.89, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0848, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0848, "scorer_weight": 0.0733, "squad_weight_total": 1.4921, "weight_share": 0.0491, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.586, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Leif Davis", "weight": 0.389, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.389, "runner_up": "Emersonn", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3227 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1563, "goal_rate": 0.1096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4455, "total_shots": 0.9071, "expected_assists": 0.023, "key_pass": 0.2866, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 25.89, "total_pass": 1.5315, "accurate_pass": 1.5315, "duels_won": 1.5315, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 3.063, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5315, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5315, "fouls_drawn": 1.5315, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.063, "total_progression": 0.6114, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.89, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.381, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0848, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0133, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0133, "provider_weight": 0.0108, "squad_weight_total": 0.9377, "weight_share": 0.0115, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.586, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julio Enciso", "weight": 0.1888, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1888, "runner_up": "Saša Lukić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1387, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Leif Davis" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.41, "expected_assists": 0.92, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 383, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 12, "avg_rating": 6.84, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3 } }, "Fulham": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Ryan Sessegnon": { "player_id": 836698, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 178, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7539, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 55, "possession_lost": 15.9225, "dispossessed": 0.7192, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.2103, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1056, "expected_assists": 0.0509, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0953, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 41, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1002, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0496, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0791, "expected_assists": 0.3199, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.021, "expected_assists": 0.1245, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0325, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2648, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025031, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1776, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024000, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024016, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023995, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023947, "match_date": "2026-03-04", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0461, "expected_assists": 0.011, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023973, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0983, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 6, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3091, "combined_rank_score": 1057.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1417.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7539, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ryan Sessegnon", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Callum Wilson", "ranking": 3086 }, { "player_name": "Victor Lindelöf", "ranking": 3087 }, { "player_name": "Oscar Bobb", "ranking": 3088 }, { "player_name": "Emmanuel Agbadou", "ranking": 3089 }, { "player_name": "Luis Romo", "ranking": 3090 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Albian Hajdari", "ranking": 3092 }, { "player_name": "Joe Willock", "ranking": 3093 }, { "player_name": "Adam Hložek", "ranking": 3094 }, { "player_name": "Jamie Gittens", "ranking": 3095 }, { "player_name": "Gonzalo Montiel", "ranking": 3096 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.755, "history_matches": 30, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 30, "data_confidence": 0.755, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0058, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Fulham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 41.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 4.39, "shots_on_target_pct": 50.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 30 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Fulham, rel: 0.03, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9663, "tackles": 1.8562, "tackles_won": 1.0828, "clearances": 1.9382, "aerial_won": 0.6488, "total_shots": 0.6855, "rating": 6.7539, "minutes": 85.82, "total_pass": 28.8025, "accurate_pass": 21.5297, "duels_won": 3.1662, "total_long_balls": 2.6335, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9267, "total_own_half_passes": 13.9901, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4144, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8124, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1152, "crosses_total": 2.6617, "crosses_accurate": 0.3324, "touches": 54.5241, "possession_lost": 15.8307, "dispossessed": 0.7151, "duels_lost": 3.9146, "aerial_lost": 0.8745, "total_contest": 1.1935, "won_contest": 0.4272, "ball_recovery": 3.5966, "challenges_lost": 0.3404, "fouls": 1.2402, "fouls_drawn": 0.0658, "blocks": 0.1054, "goals": 0.2098, "goal_rate": 0.2098, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1087, "expected_assists": 0.0502, "shots_on_target": 0.2098, "big_chances_created": 0.0862, "xgot": 0.098, "ball_carries": 9.5917, "total_progression": 41.2209, "progressive_carries": 1.4018, "key_pass": 0.7135, "shots_off_target": 0.4757 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1512, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 22.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1285, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1092, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0928, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0789, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 21.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0671, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.057, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-04", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 0.9217, "aerialWon": 0.3325, "totalClearance_p90": 1.2301, "totalTackle": 1.1807, "totalPass": 17.3169 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9662503600120544, "model_output": 0.9663, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.115 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0587 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0474 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0497 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0436 } ], "others": -0.088, "total": 0.9663, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125874 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.062253 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.050606 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.0504 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.042263 } ], "others_margin": -0.087223 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.8561939001083374, "model_output": 1.8562, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1906 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0796 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0766 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0726 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0448 } ], "others": 0.1513, "total": 1.8562, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128172 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.048995 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.047147 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.044712 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.026651 } ], "others_margin": 0.085057 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.0828168392181396, "model_output": 1.0828, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0511 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0452 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0467 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0346 } ], "others": 0.011, "total": 1.0828, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120101 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.051682 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.043619 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.043082 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.031817 } ], "others_margin": 0.010313 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.9381978511810303, "model_output": 1.9382, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.8043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3526 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.3216 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.2473 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2133 } ], "others": -0.2793, "total": 1.9382, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.265313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125051 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.113416 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.096872 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.09184 } ], "others_margin": -0.134634 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6488108038902283, "model_output": 0.6488, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.5108 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1203 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0782 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0638 } ], "others": -0.1511, "total": 0.6488, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.461376 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.148648 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.132161 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.112365 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.083052 } ], "others_margin": -0.209399 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6854615211486816, "model_output": 0.6855, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1245 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0467 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0345 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0143 } ], "others": 0.0105, "total": 0.6855, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.124536 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.04666 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.034484 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016135 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.014347 } ], "others_margin": 0.010437 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.753911018371582, "model_output": 6.7539, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.066 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0277 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.026 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0174 } ], "others": -0.0564, "total": 6.7539, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.066024 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.027706 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.026029 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.021726 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017444 } ], "others_margin": -0.056397 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0058, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9719, "tackles": 1.867, "tackles_won": 1.0891, "clearances": 1.9494, "aerial_won": 0.6526, "total_shots": 0.6895, "rating": 6.7539, "minutes": 85.82, "total_pass": 28.9696, "accurate_pass": 21.6546, "duels_won": 3.1846, "total_long_balls": 2.6488, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9321, "total_own_half_passes": 14.0712, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4748, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1797, "crosses_total": 2.6771, "crosses_accurate": 0.3343, "touches": 54.8403, "possession_lost": 15.9225, "dispossessed": 0.7192, "duels_lost": 3.9373, "aerial_lost": 0.8796, "total_contest": 1.2004, "won_contest": 0.4297, "ball_recovery": 3.6175, "challenges_lost": 0.3424, "fouls": 1.2474, "fouls_drawn": 0.0662, "blocks": 0.106, "goals": 0.211, "goal_rate": 0.211, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1093, "expected_assists": 0.0505, "shots_on_target": 0.211, "big_chances_created": 0.0867, "xgot": 0.0986, "ball_carries": 9.6473, "total_progression": 41.46, "progressive_carries": 1.4099, "key_pass": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.4785 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0058, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0031)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9748, "tackles": 1.867, "tackles_won": 1.0857, "clearances": 1.9494, "aerial_won": 0.6526, "total_shots": 0.7003, "rating": 6.7539, "minutes": 85.82, "total_pass": 28.9696, "accurate_pass": 21.6546, "duels_won": 3.1846, "total_long_balls": 2.6488, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9321, "total_own_half_passes": 14.0712, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4748, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1797, "crosses_total": 2.7101, "crosses_accurate": 0.3343, "touches": 54.8403, "possession_lost": 15.9225, "dispossessed": 0.7192, "duels_lost": 3.9373, "aerial_lost": 0.8796, "total_contest": 1.2004, "won_contest": 0.4297, "ball_recovery": 3.6175, "challenges_lost": 0.3424, "fouls": 1.2435, "fouls_drawn": 0.066, "blocks": 0.106, "goals": 0.2103, "goal_rate": 0.2103, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1093, "expected_assists": 0.0505, "shots_on_target": 0.2168, "big_chances_created": 0.0867, "xgot": 0.0986, "ball_carries": 9.6473, "total_progression": 41.46, "progressive_carries": 1.4099, "key_pass": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.4785 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0031, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9536, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.6771, "after": 2.7101 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6895, "after": 0.7003 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.211, "after": 0.2168 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9748, "tackles": 1.867, "tackles_won": 1.0857, "clearances": 1.9494, "aerial_won": 0.6526, "total_shots": 0.7003, "rating": 6.7539, "minutes": 85.82, "total_pass": 28.9696, "accurate_pass": 21.6546, "duels_won": 3.1846, "total_long_balls": 2.6488, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9321, "total_own_half_passes": 14.0712, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4748, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1797, "crosses_total": 2.7101, "crosses_accurate": 0.3343, "touches": 54.8403, "possession_lost": 15.9225, "dispossessed": 0.7192, "duels_lost": 3.9373, "aerial_lost": 0.8796, "total_contest": 1.2004, "won_contest": 0.4297, "ball_recovery": 3.6175, "challenges_lost": 0.3424, "fouls": 1.2435, "fouls_drawn": 0.066, "blocks": 0.106, "goals": 0.2103, "goal_rate": 0.2103, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1093, "expected_assists": 0.0505, "shots_on_target": 0.2168, "big_chances_created": 0.0867, "xgot": 0.0986, "ball_carries": 9.6473, "total_progression": 41.46, "progressive_carries": 1.4099, "key_pass": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.4785 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9748, "tackles": 1.867, "tackles_won": 1.0857, "clearances": 1.9494, "aerial_won": 0.6526, "total_shots": 0.7003, "rating": 6.7539, "minutes": 85.82, "total_pass": 28.9696, "accurate_pass": 21.6546, "duels_won": 3.1846, "total_long_balls": 2.6488, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9321, "total_own_half_passes": 14.0712, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4748, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1797, "crosses_total": 2.7101, "crosses_accurate": 0.3343, "touches": 54.8403, "possession_lost": 15.9225, "dispossessed": 0.7192, "duels_lost": 3.9373, "aerial_lost": 0.8796, "total_contest": 1.2004, "won_contest": 0.4297, "ball_recovery": 3.6175, "challenges_lost": 0.3424, "fouls": 1.2435, "fouls_drawn": 0.066, "blocks": 0.106, "goals": 0.2103, "goal_rate": 0.2103, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1093, "expected_assists": 0.0505, "shots_on_target": 0.2168, "big_chances_created": 0.0867, "xgot": 0.0986, "ball_carries": 9.6473, "total_progression": 41.46, "progressive_carries": 1.4099, "key_pass": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.4785, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Emersonn", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3470, xG scale 0.9666, xA scale 1.0085, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9748, "tackles": 1.867, "tackles_won": 1.0857, "clearances": 1.9494, "aerial_won": 0.6526, "total_shots": 0.7003, "rating": 6.7539, "minutes": 85.82, "total_pass": 28.9696, "accurate_pass": 21.6546, "duels_won": 3.1846, "total_long_balls": 2.6488, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9321, "total_own_half_passes": 14.0712, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4748, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1797, "crosses_total": 2.7101, "crosses_accurate": 0.3343, "touches": 54.8403, "possession_lost": 15.9225, "dispossessed": 0.7192, "duels_lost": 3.9373, "aerial_lost": 0.8796, "total_contest": 1.2004, "won_contest": 0.4297, "ball_recovery": 3.6175, "challenges_lost": 0.3424, "fouls": 1.2435, "fouls_drawn": 0.066, "blocks": 0.106, "goal_rate": 0.2103, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1056, "expected_assists": 0.0509, "shots_on_target": 0.2168, "big_chances_created": 0.0867, "xgot": 0.0953, "ball_carries": 9.6473, "total_progression": 41.46, "progressive_carries": 1.4099, "key_pass": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.4785, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.347, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8391, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9666, "xa_scale": 1.0085, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9748, "tackles": 1.867, "tackles_won": 1.0857, "clearances": 1.9494, "aerial_won": 0.6526, "total_shots": 0.7003, "rating": 6.7539, "minutes": 85.82, "total_pass": 28.9696, "accurate_pass": 21.6546, "duels_won": 3.1846, "total_long_balls": 2.6488, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9321, "total_own_half_passes": 14.0712, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4748, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1797, "crosses_total": 2.7101, "crosses_accurate": 0.3343, "touches": 54.8403, "possession_lost": 15.9225, "dispossessed": 0.7192, "duels_lost": 3.9373, "aerial_lost": 0.8796, "total_contest": 1.2004, "won_contest": 0.4297, "ball_recovery": 3.6175, "challenges_lost": 0.3424, "fouls": 1.2435, "fouls_drawn": 0.066, "blocks": 0.106, "goal_rate": 0.2103, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1056, "expected_assists": 0.0509, "shots_on_target": 0.2168, "big_chances_created": 0.0867, "xgot": 0.0953, "ball_carries": 9.6473, "total_progression": 41.46, "progressive_carries": 1.4099, "key_pass": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.4785, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3091, "fifa_rank": 1417.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9748, "tackles": 1.867, "tackles_won": 1.0857, "clearances": 1.9494, "aerial_won": 0.6526, "total_shots": 0.7003, "rating": 6.7539, "minutes": 85.82, "total_pass": 28.9696, "accurate_pass": 21.6546, "duels_won": 3.1846, "total_long_balls": 2.6488, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9321, "total_own_half_passes": 14.0712, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4748, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1797, "crosses_total": 2.7101, "crosses_accurate": 0.3343, "touches": 54.8403, "possession_lost": 15.9225, "dispossessed": 0.7192, "duels_lost": 3.9373, "aerial_lost": 0.8796, "total_contest": 1.2004, "won_contest": 0.4297, "ball_recovery": 3.6175, "challenges_lost": 0.3424, "fouls": 1.2435, "fouls_drawn": 0.066, "blocks": 0.106, "goal_rate": 0.2103, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1056, "expected_assists": 0.0509, "shots_on_target": 0.2168, "big_chances_created": 0.0867, "xgot": 0.0953, "ball_carries": 9.6473, "total_progression": 41.46, "progressive_carries": 1.4099, "key_pass": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.4785, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1002, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1002, "scorer_weight": 0.132, "squad_weight_total": 1.4299, "weight_share": 0.0923, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9748, "tackles": 1.867, "tackles_won": 1.0857, "clearances": 1.9494, "aerial_won": 0.6526, "total_shots": 0.7003, "rating": 6.7539, "minutes": 85.82, "total_pass": 28.9696, "accurate_pass": 21.6546, "duels_won": 3.1846, "total_long_balls": 2.6488, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9321, "total_own_half_passes": 14.0712, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4748, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1797, "crosses_total": 2.7101, "crosses_accurate": 0.3343, "touches": 54.8403, "possession_lost": 15.9225, "dispossessed": 0.7192, "duels_lost": 3.9373, "aerial_lost": 0.8796, "total_contest": 1.2004, "won_contest": 0.4297, "ball_recovery": 3.6175, "challenges_lost": 0.3424, "fouls": 1.2435, "fouls_drawn": 0.066, "blocks": 0.106, "goal_rate": 0.2103, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1056, "expected_assists": 0.0509, "shots_on_target": 0.2168, "big_chances_created": 0.0867, "xgot": 0.0953, "ball_carries": 9.6473, "total_progression": 41.46, "progressive_carries": 1.4099, "key_pass": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.4785, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1002, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0496, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0496, "provider_weight": 0.0407, "squad_weight_total": 0.7437, "weight_share": 0.0548, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Calvin Bassey": { "player_id": 861972, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 185, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8464, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 64, "accurate_pass": 57, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 78, "possession_lost": 9.2135, "dispossessed": 0.2784, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0098, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0355, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 110, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Jack Clarke", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0349, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.016, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0588, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 56, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0516, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 95, "accurate_pass": 87, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 78, "accurate_pass": 70, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0168, "expected_assists": 0.0229, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 89, "accurate_pass": 81, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0036, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 40, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 56, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 67, "accurate_pass": 59, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023931, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 64, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 44, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2274, "combined_rank_score": 831.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 559.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8133, "sofascore_appearances": 30.0, "fifa_rank": 1103.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8464, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Calvin Bassey", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Andoni Gorosabel", "ranking": 2269 }, { "player_name": "Jeong-Yeon Wu", "ranking": 2270 }, { "player_name": "Leo Román", "ranking": 2271 }, { "player_name": "Mathías Olivera", "ranking": 2272 }, { "player_name": "Luis Suárez", "ranking": 2273 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Shahzod Akramov", "ranking": 2275 }, { "player_name": "Yves Bissouma", "ranking": 2276 }, { "player_name": "Nuriddin Nuriddinov", "ranking": 2277 }, { "player_name": "Kim Min-Ho", "ranking": 2278 }, { "player_name": "Manuel Ugarte", "ranking": 2279 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 35, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 35, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0077, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Fulham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 35 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Fulham, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9336, "tackles": 1.4379, "tackles_won": 0.8838, "clearances": 3.2442, "aerial_won": 0.9996, "total_shots": 0.6336, "rating": 6.8464, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 63.7778, "accurate_pass": 56.5669, "duels_won": 4.6295, "total_long_balls": 6.9146, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2869, "total_own_half_passes": 37.0399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.1476, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.7379, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.4193, "crosses_total": 0.2789, "crosses_accurate": 0.0159, "touches": 77.452, "possession_lost": 9.1431, "dispossessed": 0.2763, "duels_lost": 2.4008, "aerial_lost": 1.0315, "total_contest": 0.9911, "won_contest": 0.6242, "ball_recovery": 4.4429, "challenges_lost": 0.1178, "fouls": 0.7024, "fouls_drawn": 1.4837, "blocks": 0.4881, "goals": 0.0098, "goal_rate": 0.0098, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0364, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "shots_on_target": 0.3051, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0365, "ball_carries": 24.7009, "total_progression": 109.5903, "progressive_carries": 1.6335, "key_pass": 0.2415, "shots_off_target": 0.3285 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1505, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.0938, "aerialWon": 0.7897, "totalClearance_p90": 3.1705, "totalTackle": 1.7097, "totalPass": 63.3129 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9336023330688477, "model_output": 0.9336, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1109 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0279 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0061 } ], "others": 0.0282, "total": 0.9336, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121649 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.029249 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.019118 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.01205 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.006665 } ], "others_margin": 0.030728 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.437861680984497, "model_output": 1.4379, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1679 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0689 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0577 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0373 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0346 } ], "others": -0.0408, "total": 1.4379, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.113763 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.045149 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.037952 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.024346 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.023127 } ], "others_margin": -0.028025 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.8838186264038086, "model_output": 0.8838, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1002 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0389 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0365 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0356 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.036 } ], "others": -0.067, "total": 0.8838, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.110948 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.041577 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.040707 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.039679 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.038585 } ], "others_margin": -0.073019 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.244215965270996, "model_output": 3.2442, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4443 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.3221 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.3159 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2804 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1513 } ], "others": -0.5162, "total": 3.2442, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121088 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.086296 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.084704 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.074824 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.041074 } ], "others_margin": -0.147656 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.9996010065078735, "model_output": 0.9996, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.3164 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.141 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0768 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0573 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0274 } ], "others": -0.1003, "total": 0.9996, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.259976 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124292 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.06577 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.052064 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.025198 } ], "others_margin": -0.095632 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.633554220199585, "model_output": 0.6336, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.062 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0405 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0238 } ], "others": -0.019, "total": 0.6336, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061991 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.040474 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.030387 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.02476 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.023781 } ], "others_margin": -0.01897 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.846439838409424, "model_output": 6.8464, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0268 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0226, "total": 6.8464, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.030701 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.026824 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.025286 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.010587 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009537 } ], "others_margin": -0.022554 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0077, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9408, "tackles": 1.4489, "tackles_won": 0.8906, "clearances": 3.2692, "aerial_won": 1.0073, "total_shots": 0.6385, "rating": 6.8464, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 64.2689, "accurate_pass": 57.0025, "duels_won": 4.6651, "total_long_balls": 6.9678, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3122, "total_own_half_passes": 37.3251, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.4182, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9438, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.5842, "crosses_total": 0.281, "crosses_accurate": 0.016, "touches": 78.0484, "possession_lost": 9.2135, "dispossessed": 0.2784, "duels_lost": 2.4193, "aerial_lost": 1.0394, "total_contest": 0.9987, "won_contest": 0.629, "ball_recovery": 4.4771, "challenges_lost": 0.1187, "fouls": 0.7078, "fouls_drawn": 1.4951, "blocks": 0.4919, "goals": 0.0099, "goal_rate": 0.0099, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "expected_assists": 0.016, "shots_on_target": 0.3074, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0368, "ball_carries": 24.8911, "total_progression": 110.4341, "progressive_carries": 1.6461, "key_pass": 0.2434, "shots_off_target": 0.331 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0077, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9414, "tackles": 1.4489, "tackles_won": 0.8864, "clearances": 3.2692, "aerial_won": 1.0073, "total_shots": 0.637, "rating": 6.8464, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 64.2689, "accurate_pass": 57.0025, "duels_won": 4.6651, "total_long_balls": 6.9678, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3122, "total_own_half_passes": 37.3251, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.4182, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9438, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.5842, "crosses_total": 0.278, "crosses_accurate": 0.016, "touches": 78.0484, "possession_lost": 9.2135, "dispossessed": 0.2784, "duels_lost": 2.4193, "aerial_lost": 1.0394, "total_contest": 0.9987, "won_contest": 0.629, "ball_recovery": 4.4771, "challenges_lost": 0.1187, "fouls": 0.7055, "fouls_drawn": 1.4952, "blocks": 0.4919, "goals": 0.0098, "goal_rate": 0.0098, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "expected_assists": 0.016, "shots_on_target": 0.3041, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0368, "ball_carries": 24.8911, "total_progression": 110.4341, "progressive_carries": 1.6461, "key_pass": 0.2434, "shots_off_target": 0.331 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0108, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9414, "tackles": 1.4489, "tackles_won": 0.8864, "clearances": 3.2692, "aerial_won": 1.0073, "total_shots": 0.637, "rating": 6.8464, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 64.2689, "accurate_pass": 57.0025, "duels_won": 4.6651, "total_long_balls": 6.9678, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3122, "total_own_half_passes": 37.3251, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.4182, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9438, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.5842, "crosses_total": 0.278, "crosses_accurate": 0.016, "touches": 78.0484, "possession_lost": 9.2135, "dispossessed": 0.2784, "duels_lost": 2.4193, "aerial_lost": 1.0394, "total_contest": 0.9987, "won_contest": 0.629, "ball_recovery": 4.4771, "challenges_lost": 0.1187, "fouls": 0.7055, "fouls_drawn": 1.4952, "blocks": 0.4919, "goals": 0.0098, "goal_rate": 0.0098, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "expected_assists": 0.016, "shots_on_target": 0.3041, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0368, "ball_carries": 24.8911, "total_progression": 110.4341, "progressive_carries": 1.6461, "key_pass": 0.2434, "shots_off_target": 0.331 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9414, "tackles": 1.4489, "tackles_won": 0.8864, "clearances": 3.2692, "aerial_won": 1.0073, "total_shots": 0.637, "rating": 6.8464, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 64.2689, "accurate_pass": 57.0025, "duels_won": 4.6651, "total_long_balls": 6.9678, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3122, "total_own_half_passes": 37.3251, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.4182, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9438, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.5842, "crosses_total": 0.278, "crosses_accurate": 0.016, "touches": 78.0484, "possession_lost": 9.2135, "dispossessed": 0.2784, "duels_lost": 2.4193, "aerial_lost": 1.0394, "total_contest": 0.9987, "won_contest": 0.629, "ball_recovery": 4.4771, "challenges_lost": 0.1187, "fouls": 0.7055, "fouls_drawn": 1.4952, "blocks": 0.4919, "goals": 0.0098, "goal_rate": 0.0098, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "expected_assists": 0.016, "shots_on_target": 0.3041, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0368, "ball_carries": 24.8911, "total_progression": 110.4341, "progressive_carries": 1.6461, "key_pass": 0.2434, "shots_off_target": 0.331, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Jack Clarke", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jack Clarke", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3470, xG scale 0.9666, xA scale 1.0085, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9414, "tackles": 1.4489, "tackles_won": 0.8864, "clearances": 3.2692, "aerial_won": 1.0073, "total_shots": 0.637, "rating": 6.8464, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 64.2689, "accurate_pass": 57.0025, "duels_won": 4.6651, "total_long_balls": 6.9678, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3122, "total_own_half_passes": 37.3251, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.4182, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9438, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.5842, "crosses_total": 0.278, "crosses_accurate": 0.016, "touches": 78.0484, "possession_lost": 9.2135, "dispossessed": 0.2784, "duels_lost": 2.4193, "aerial_lost": 1.0394, "total_contest": 0.9987, "won_contest": 0.629, "ball_recovery": 4.4771, "challenges_lost": 0.1187, "fouls": 0.7055, "fouls_drawn": 1.4952, "blocks": 0.4919, "goal_rate": 0.0098, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0355, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "shots_on_target": 0.3041, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 24.8911, "total_progression": 110.4341, "progressive_carries": 1.6461, "key_pass": 0.2434, "shots_off_target": 0.331, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Jack Clarke", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.347, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8391, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9666, "xa_scale": 1.0085, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9414, "tackles": 1.4489, "tackles_won": 0.8864, "clearances": 3.2692, "aerial_won": 1.0073, "total_shots": 0.637, "rating": 6.8464, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 64.2689, "accurate_pass": 57.0025, "duels_won": 4.6651, "total_long_balls": 6.9678, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3122, "total_own_half_passes": 37.3251, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.4182, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9438, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.5842, "crosses_total": 0.278, "crosses_accurate": 0.016, "touches": 78.0484, "possession_lost": 9.2135, "dispossessed": 0.2784, "duels_lost": 2.4193, "aerial_lost": 1.0394, "total_contest": 0.9987, "won_contest": 0.629, "ball_recovery": 4.4771, "challenges_lost": 0.1187, "fouls": 0.7055, "fouls_drawn": 1.4952, "blocks": 0.4919, "goal_rate": 0.0098, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0355, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "shots_on_target": 0.3041, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 24.8911, "total_progression": 110.4341, "progressive_carries": 1.6461, "key_pass": 0.2434, "shots_off_target": 0.331, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Jack Clarke", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2274, "fifa_rank": 1103.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9414, "tackles": 1.4489, "tackles_won": 0.8864, "clearances": 3.2692, "aerial_won": 1.0073, "total_shots": 0.637, "rating": 6.8464, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 64.2689, "accurate_pass": 57.0025, "duels_won": 4.6651, "total_long_balls": 6.9678, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3122, "total_own_half_passes": 37.3251, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.4182, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9438, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.5842, "crosses_total": 0.278, "crosses_accurate": 0.016, "touches": 78.0484, "possession_lost": 9.2135, "dispossessed": 0.2784, "duels_lost": 2.4193, "aerial_lost": 1.0394, "total_contest": 0.9987, "won_contest": 0.629, "ball_recovery": 4.4771, "challenges_lost": 0.1187, "fouls": 0.7055, "fouls_drawn": 1.4952, "blocks": 0.4919, "goal_rate": 0.0098, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0355, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "shots_on_target": 0.3041, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 24.8911, "total_progression": 110.4341, "progressive_carries": 1.6461, "key_pass": 0.2434, "shots_off_target": 0.331, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Jack Clarke", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0349, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0349, "scorer_weight": 0.0284, "squad_weight_total": 1.4299, "weight_share": 0.0199, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9414, "tackles": 1.4489, "tackles_won": 0.8864, "clearances": 3.2692, "aerial_won": 1.0073, "total_shots": 0.637, "rating": 6.8464, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 64.2689, "accurate_pass": 57.0025, "duels_won": 4.6651, "total_long_balls": 6.9678, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3122, "total_own_half_passes": 37.3251, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.4182, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9438, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.5842, "crosses_total": 0.278, "crosses_accurate": 0.016, "touches": 78.0484, "possession_lost": 9.2135, "dispossessed": 0.2784, "duels_lost": 2.4193, "aerial_lost": 1.0394, "total_contest": 0.9987, "won_contest": 0.629, "ball_recovery": 4.4771, "challenges_lost": 0.1187, "fouls": 0.7055, "fouls_drawn": 1.4952, "blocks": 0.4919, "goal_rate": 0.0098, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0355, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "shots_on_target": 0.3041, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 24.8911, "total_progression": 110.4341, "progressive_carries": 1.6461, "key_pass": 0.2434, "shots_off_target": 0.331, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Jack Clarke", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0349, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.016, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.016, "provider_weight": 0.0129, "squad_weight_total": 0.7437, "weight_share": 0.0173, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "David Affengruber": { "player_id": 988672, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 185, "market_value": 18100000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8883, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 54, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 38, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 78, "possession_lost": 9.0629, "dispossessed": 0.1845, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0249, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0431, "expected_assists": 0.0456, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0147, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 75, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.575, "opponent_faced": "Julio Enciso", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0422, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0446, "finishing_factor": 0.8298, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 61, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 7, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 9, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416304, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1202, "expected_assists": 0.0362, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 77, "accurate_pass": 70, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0761, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 37, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421050, "match_date": "2026-08-17", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.131, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 88, "accurate_pass": 83, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083743, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083671, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 53, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083608, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0167, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 77, "accurate_pass": 73, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083578, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.079, "expected_assists": 0.4644, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 75, "accurate_pass": 70, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083401, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1378, "expected_assists": 0.0448, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 54, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3203, "combined_rank_score": 1157.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1979.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8883, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "David Affengruber", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "David Zima", "ranking": 3198 }, { "player_name": "Juan Iglesias", "ranking": 3199 }, { "player_name": "Thierno Barry", "ranking": 3200 }, { "player_name": "Tiago Palacios", "ranking": 3201 }, { "player_name": "Frederik Rønnow", "ranking": 3202 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kike Salas", "ranking": 3204 }, { "player_name": "Franck Honorat", "ranking": 3205 }, { "player_name": "Djibril Sow", "ranking": 3206 }, { "player_name": "Pepelu", "ranking": 3207 }, { "player_name": "Dayann Methalie", "ranking": 3208 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 41, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0035, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Elche", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.67, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 41 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Elche, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1198, "tackles": 1.5632, "tackles_won": 0.978, "clearances": 5.0795, "aerial_won": 1.4695, "total_shots": 0.6275, "rating": 6.8883, "minutes": 88.5, "total_pass": 61.7886, "accurate_pass": 54.0865, "duels_won": 4.162, "total_long_balls": 6.1684, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6049, "total_own_half_passes": 38.1719, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.1979, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.8886, "crosses_total": 0.2104, "crosses_accurate": 0.0348, "touches": 77.535, "possession_lost": 9.0313, "dispossessed": 0.1839, "duels_lost": 2.864, "aerial_lost": 1.304, "total_contest": 0.6284, "won_contest": 0.4648, "ball_recovery": 4.6363, "challenges_lost": 0.5734, "fouls": 0.6392, "fouls_drawn": 0.7347, "blocks": 1.0408, "goals": 0.0288, "goal_rate": 0.0288, "assists": 0.0252, "assist_rate": 0.0252, "expected_goals": 0.0444, "expected_assists": 0.045, "shots_on_target": 0.0664, "big_chances_created": 0.0662, "xgot": 0.0151, "ball_carries": 20.8731, "total_progression": 74.505, "progressive_carries": 1.0079, "key_pass": 0.3603, "shots_off_target": 0.5611 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 5.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-17", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 5.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 5.482, "aerialWon": 1.3624, "totalClearance_p90": 5.7198, "totalTackle": 1.6274, "totalPass": 61.2158 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.119762659072876, "model_output": 1.1198, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1117 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0731 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0318 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0271 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0234 } ], "others": -0.0046, "total": 1.1198, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122464 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.07274 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.03005 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.024889 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.021045 } ], "others_margin": -0.004071 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.5631548166275024, "model_output": 1.5632, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1598 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0508 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0434 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0357 } ], "others": -0.0015, "total": 1.5632, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.108504 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.032152 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.02744 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.024842 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.022562 } ], "others_margin": -0.000879 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.9779694080352783, "model_output": 0.978, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0993 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.064 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0512 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0427 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0274 } ], "others": -0.0038, "total": 0.978, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.109904 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.065002 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.051639 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.043231 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.02754 } ], "others_margin": -0.003822 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 5.07952356338501, "model_output": 5.0795, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.7779 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5577 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.2741 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2722 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1949 } ], "others": -0.4487, "total": 5.0795, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.203256 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123869 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.055679 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.052386 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.035899 } ], "others_margin": -0.084654 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.4694691896438599, "model_output": 1.4695, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1688 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1123 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1102 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0774 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0762 } ], "others": -0.2328, "total": 1.4695, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11523 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.07516 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.073814 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.048783 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.045791 } ], "others_margin": -0.147109 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6274787783622742, "model_output": 0.6275, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0669 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.05 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0282 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.01 } ], "others": -0.0164, "total": 0.6275, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.066889 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.050041 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.028209 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.017739 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.01 } ], "others_margin": -0.01653 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.88834810256958, "model_output": 6.8883, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0315 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0302 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.011 } ], "others": 0.0297, "total": 6.8883, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.031464 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.030246 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.020014 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.019168 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.011015 } ], "others_margin": 0.029645 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0035, quality 0.612)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1237, "tackles": 1.5686, "tackles_won": 0.9814, "clearances": 5.0973, "aerial_won": 1.4746, "total_shots": 0.6297, "rating": 6.8883, "minutes": 88.5, "total_pass": 62.0049, "accurate_pass": 54.2758, "duels_won": 4.1766, "total_long_balls": 6.19, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6105, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.3246, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6994, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9512, "crosses_total": 0.2111, "crosses_accurate": 0.0349, "touches": 77.8064, "possession_lost": 9.0629, "dispossessed": 0.1845, "duels_lost": 2.874, "aerial_lost": 1.3086, "total_contest": 0.6306, "won_contest": 0.4664, "ball_recovery": 4.6525, "challenges_lost": 0.5754, "fouls": 0.6414, "fouls_drawn": 0.7373, "blocks": 1.0444, "goals": 0.0289, "goal_rate": 0.0289, "assists": 0.0253, "assist_rate": 0.0253, "expected_goals": 0.0446, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "shots_on_target": 0.0666, "big_chances_created": 0.0664, "xgot": 0.0152, "ball_carries": 20.9462, "total_progression": 74.7658, "progressive_carries": 1.0114, "key_pass": 0.3616, "shots_off_target": 0.5631 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18100000, "quality_factor": 0.612, "boost_factor": 1.0035, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0141)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.131, "tackles": 1.5686, "tackles_won": 0.9814, "clearances": 5.0973, "aerial_won": 1.4746, "total_shots": 0.644, "rating": 6.8883, "minutes": 88.5, "total_pass": 62.0049, "accurate_pass": 54.2758, "duels_won": 4.1766, "total_long_balls": 6.19, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6105, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.3246, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6994, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9512, "crosses_total": 0.2127, "crosses_accurate": 0.0349, "touches": 77.8064, "possession_lost": 9.0629, "dispossessed": 0.1845, "duels_lost": 2.874, "aerial_lost": 1.3086, "total_contest": 0.6306, "won_contest": 0.4664, "ball_recovery": 4.6525, "challenges_lost": 0.5754, "fouls": 0.637, "fouls_drawn": 0.7454, "blocks": 1.0444, "goals": 0.0285, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "assists": 0.0249, "assist_rate": 0.0249, "expected_goals": 0.0446, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "shots_on_target": 0.0657, "big_chances_created": 0.0664, "xgot": 0.0152, "ball_carries": 20.9462, "total_progression": 74.7658, "progressive_carries": 1.0114, "key_pass": 0.3616, "shots_off_target": 0.5631 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0141, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9833, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6297, "after": 0.644 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.7373, "after": 0.7454 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1237, "after": 1.131 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.131, "tackles": 1.5686, "tackles_won": 0.9814, "clearances": 5.0973, "aerial_won": 1.4746, "total_shots": 0.644, "rating": 6.8883, "minutes": 88.5, "total_pass": 62.0049, "accurate_pass": 54.2758, "duels_won": 4.1766, "total_long_balls": 6.19, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6105, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.3246, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6994, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9512, "crosses_total": 0.2127, "crosses_accurate": 0.0349, "touches": 77.8064, "possession_lost": 9.0629, "dispossessed": 0.1845, "duels_lost": 2.874, "aerial_lost": 1.3086, "total_contest": 0.6306, "won_contest": 0.4664, "ball_recovery": 4.6525, "challenges_lost": 0.5754, "fouls": 0.637, "fouls_drawn": 0.7454, "blocks": 1.0444, "goals": 0.0285, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "assists": 0.0249, "assist_rate": 0.0249, "expected_goals": 0.0446, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "shots_on_target": 0.0657, "big_chances_created": 0.0664, "xgot": 0.0152, "ball_carries": 20.9462, "total_progression": 74.7658, "progressive_carries": 1.0114, "key_pass": 0.3616, "shots_off_target": 0.5631 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.131, "tackles": 1.5686, "tackles_won": 0.9814, "clearances": 5.0973, "aerial_won": 1.4746, "total_shots": 0.644, "rating": 6.8883, "minutes": 88.5, "total_pass": 62.0049, "accurate_pass": 54.2758, "duels_won": 4.1766, "total_long_balls": 6.19, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6105, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.3246, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6994, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9512, "crosses_total": 0.2127, "crosses_accurate": 0.0349, "touches": 77.8064, "possession_lost": 9.0629, "dispossessed": 0.1845, "duels_lost": 2.874, "aerial_lost": 1.3086, "total_contest": 0.6306, "won_contest": 0.4664, "ball_recovery": 4.6525, "challenges_lost": 0.5754, "fouls": 0.637, "fouls_drawn": 0.7454, "blocks": 1.0444, "goals": 0.0285, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "assists": 0.0249, "assist_rate": 0.0249, "expected_goals": 0.0446, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "shots_on_target": 0.0657, "big_chances_created": 0.0664, "xgot": 0.0152, "ball_carries": 20.9462, "total_progression": 74.7658, "progressive_carries": 1.0114, "key_pass": 0.3616, "shots_off_target": 0.5631, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.575, "opponent_faced": "Julio Enciso", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3470, xG scale 0.9666, xA scale 1.0085, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.131, "tackles": 1.5686, "tackles_won": 0.9814, "clearances": 5.0973, "aerial_won": 1.4746, "total_shots": 0.644, "rating": 6.8883, "minutes": 88.5, "total_pass": 62.0049, "accurate_pass": 54.2758, "duels_won": 4.1766, "total_long_balls": 6.19, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6105, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.3246, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6994, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9512, "crosses_total": 0.2127, "crosses_accurate": 0.0349, "touches": 77.8064, "possession_lost": 9.0629, "dispossessed": 0.1845, "duels_lost": 2.874, "aerial_lost": 1.3086, "total_contest": 0.6306, "won_contest": 0.4664, "ball_recovery": 4.6525, "challenges_lost": 0.5754, "fouls": 0.637, "fouls_drawn": 0.7454, "blocks": 1.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0249, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0431, "expected_assists": 0.0456, "shots_on_target": 0.0657, "big_chances_created": 0.0664, "xgot": 0.0147, "ball_carries": 20.9462, "total_progression": 74.7658, "progressive_carries": 1.0114, "key_pass": 0.3616, "shots_off_target": 0.5631, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.575, "opponent_faced": "Julio Enciso", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8298, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.347, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8391, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9666, "xa_scale": 1.0085, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.131, "tackles": 1.5686, "tackles_won": 0.9814, "clearances": 5.0973, "aerial_won": 1.4746, "total_shots": 0.644, "rating": 6.8883, "minutes": 88.5, "total_pass": 62.0049, "accurate_pass": 54.2758, "duels_won": 4.1766, "total_long_balls": 6.19, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6105, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.3246, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6994, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9512, "crosses_total": 0.2127, "crosses_accurate": 0.0349, "touches": 77.8064, "possession_lost": 9.0629, "dispossessed": 0.1845, "duels_lost": 2.874, "aerial_lost": 1.3086, "total_contest": 0.6306, "won_contest": 0.4664, "ball_recovery": 4.6525, "challenges_lost": 0.5754, "fouls": 0.637, "fouls_drawn": 0.7454, "blocks": 1.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0249, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0431, "expected_assists": 0.0456, "shots_on_target": 0.0657, "big_chances_created": 0.0664, "xgot": 0.0147, "ball_carries": 20.9462, "total_progression": 74.7658, "progressive_carries": 1.0114, "key_pass": 0.3616, "shots_off_target": 0.5631, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.575, "opponent_faced": "Julio Enciso", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8298, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3203, "fifa_rank": 1979.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.131, "tackles": 1.5686, "tackles_won": 0.9814, "clearances": 5.0973, "aerial_won": 1.4746, "total_shots": 0.644, "rating": 6.8883, "minutes": 88.5, "total_pass": 62.0049, "accurate_pass": 54.2758, "duels_won": 4.1766, "total_long_balls": 6.19, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6105, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.3246, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6994, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9512, "crosses_total": 0.2127, "crosses_accurate": 0.0349, "touches": 77.8064, "possession_lost": 9.0629, "dispossessed": 0.1845, "duels_lost": 2.874, "aerial_lost": 1.3086, "total_contest": 0.6306, "won_contest": 0.4664, "ball_recovery": 4.6525, "challenges_lost": 0.5754, "fouls": 0.637, "fouls_drawn": 0.7454, "blocks": 1.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0249, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0431, "expected_assists": 0.0456, "shots_on_target": 0.0657, "big_chances_created": 0.0664, "xgot": 0.0147, "ball_carries": 20.9462, "total_progression": 74.7658, "progressive_carries": 1.0114, "key_pass": 0.3616, "shots_off_target": 0.5631, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.575, "opponent_faced": "Julio Enciso", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0422, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8298, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0422, "scorer_weight": 0.0358, "squad_weight_total": 1.4299, "weight_share": 0.025, "finishing_factor": 0.8298, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.131, "tackles": 1.5686, "tackles_won": 0.9814, "clearances": 5.0973, "aerial_won": 1.4746, "total_shots": 0.644, "rating": 6.8883, "minutes": 88.5, "total_pass": 62.0049, "accurate_pass": 54.2758, "duels_won": 4.1766, "total_long_balls": 6.19, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6105, "total_own_half_passes": 38.3055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.3246, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6994, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9512, "crosses_total": 0.2127, "crosses_accurate": 0.0349, "touches": 77.8064, "possession_lost": 9.0629, "dispossessed": 0.1845, "duels_lost": 2.874, "aerial_lost": 1.3086, "total_contest": 0.6306, "won_contest": 0.4664, "ball_recovery": 4.6525, "challenges_lost": 0.5754, "fouls": 0.637, "fouls_drawn": 0.7454, "blocks": 1.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0249, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0431, "expected_assists": 0.0456, "shots_on_target": 0.0657, "big_chances_created": 0.0664, "xgot": 0.0147, "ball_carries": 20.9462, "total_progression": 74.7658, "progressive_carries": 1.0114, "key_pass": 0.3616, "shots_off_target": 0.5631, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.575, "opponent_faced": "Julio Enciso", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0422, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0446, "finishing_factor": 0.8298, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0446, "provider_weight": 0.0365, "squad_weight_total": 0.7437, "weight_share": 0.0491, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Timothy Castagne": { "player_id": 329417, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 185, "market_value": 7600000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 9.6765, "dispossessed": 0.0645, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0841, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0875, "expected_assists": 0.0836, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0533, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 40, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Jack Clarke", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0838, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0802, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.009, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 35, "clearances": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5837, "expected_assists": 0.1867, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 69, "accurate_pass": 59, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0932, "expected_assists": 0.1795, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0894, "expected_assists": 0.148, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.048, "expected_assists": 0.1482, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 49, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.216, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023931, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.147, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1415, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3169, "combined_rank_score": 1135.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 81.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.55, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 2190.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.721, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Timothy Castagne", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nicolás Fernández", "ranking": 3164 }, { "player_name": "Žan Vipotnik", "ranking": 3165 }, { "player_name": "Mykhailo Mudryk", "ranking": 3166 }, { "player_name": "Diego López", "ranking": 3167 }, { "player_name": "Taty Castellanos", "ranking": 3168 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Edson Álvarez", "ranking": 3170 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Trapp", "ranking": 3171 }, { "player_name": "Sean Longstaff", "ranking": 3172 }, { "player_name": "Alexandr Golovin", "ranking": 3173 }, { "player_name": "Romain Perraud", "ranking": 3174 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 35, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 35, "data_confidence": 0.767, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9996, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Fulham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 157.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.5882352941176471, "shots_per90": 0.57, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1133 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 35 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Fulham, rel: 0.11, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.5882352941176471)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9725, "tackles": 1.6081, "tackles_won": 0.9993, "clearances": 3.1601, "aerial_won": 1.0072, "total_shots": 0.5275, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 85.31, "total_pass": 40.7913, "accurate_pass": 33.7373, "duels_won": 3.1946, "total_long_balls": 3.6617, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0949, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2218, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9793, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5695, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.758, "crosses_total": 1.3255, "crosses_accurate": 0.4224, "touches": 59.7731, "possession_lost": 9.6804, "dispossessed": 0.0645, "duels_lost": 3.3541, "aerial_lost": 1.461, "total_contest": 0.4903, "won_contest": 0.2092, "ball_recovery": 3.1995, "challenges_lost": 0.298, "fouls": 1.2495, "fouls_drawn": 0.7295, "blocks": 0.6736, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0797, "assist_rate": 0.0797, "expected_goals": 0.0905, "expected_assists": 0.0829, "shots_on_target": 0.2602, "big_chances_created": 0.1137, "xgot": 0.0551, "ball_carries": 10.6095, "total_progression": 39.8151, "progressive_carries": 0.6896, "key_pass": 0.8347, "shots_off_target": 0.2673 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1505, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 2.8496, "aerialWon": 0.6713, "totalClearance_p90": 3.1508, "totalTackle": 1.4793, "totalPass": 39.2645 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9724735021591187, "model_output": 0.9725, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0078 } ], "others": 0.0141, "total": 0.9725, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117773 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.017665 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.011928 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008679 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.008187 } ], "others_margin": 0.014543 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.6080831289291382, "model_output": 1.6081, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1812 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.068 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.058 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0391 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0322 } ], "others": 0.0943, "total": 1.6081, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122217 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.042283 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.035913 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.024994 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.021072 } ], "others_margin": 0.060434 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.9993102550506592, "model_output": 0.9993, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1074 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.044 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0405 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.028 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0239 } ], "others": 0.0381, "total": 0.9993, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11846 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.04474 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.041102 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.029444 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.025206 } ], "others_margin": 0.038862 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.1600706577301025, "model_output": 3.1601, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4704 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.3697 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.3297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1195 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0954 } ], "others": -0.0864, "total": 3.1601, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127768 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.099023 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.097425 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.036414 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.028973 } ], "others_margin": -0.026949 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.0071992874145508, "model_output": 1.0072, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.3465 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1396 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0683 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0393 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0246 } ], "others": -0.0357, "total": 1.0072, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.288597 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126483 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.059912 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.036107 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.023277 } ], "others_margin": -0.034969 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5274592041969299, "model_output": 0.5275, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0617 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0551 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0075 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0074 } ], "others": -0.0507, "total": 0.5275, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061725 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.055076 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.009771 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.007542 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.007368 } ], "others_margin": -0.050876 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.720984935760498, "model_output": 6.721, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0249 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0185 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0614, "total": 6.721, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.024861 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019799 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.018504 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014996 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011344 } ], "others_margin": -0.061373 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9996, quality 0.494)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9721, "tackles": 1.6074, "tackles_won": 0.9989, "clearances": 3.1588, "aerial_won": 1.0068, "total_shots": 0.5273, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 85.31, "total_pass": 40.775, "accurate_pass": 33.7238, "duels_won": 3.1933, "total_long_balls": 3.6602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0945, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9713, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5625, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7525, "crosses_total": 1.325, "crosses_accurate": 0.4222, "touches": 59.7492, "possession_lost": 9.6765, "dispossessed": 0.0645, "duels_lost": 3.3528, "aerial_lost": 1.4604, "total_contest": 0.4901, "won_contest": 0.2091, "ball_recovery": 3.1982, "challenges_lost": 0.2979, "fouls": 1.249, "fouls_drawn": 0.7292, "blocks": 0.6733, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0797, "assist_rate": 0.0797, "expected_goals": 0.0905, "expected_assists": 0.0829, "shots_on_target": 0.2601, "big_chances_created": 0.1137, "xgot": 0.0551, "ball_carries": 10.6053, "total_progression": 39.7992, "progressive_carries": 0.6893, "key_pass": 0.8344, "shots_off_target": 0.2672 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7600000, "quality_factor": 0.4939, "boost_factor": 0.9996, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0092)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9734, "tackles": 1.6074, "tackles_won": 1.0, "clearances": 3.1588, "aerial_won": 1.0068, "total_shots": 0.5274, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 85.31, "total_pass": 40.775, "accurate_pass": 33.7238, "duels_won": 3.1933, "total_long_balls": 3.6602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0945, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9713, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5625, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7525, "crosses_total": 1.3282, "crosses_accurate": 0.4222, "touches": 59.7492, "possession_lost": 9.6765, "dispossessed": 0.0645, "duels_lost": 3.3528, "aerial_lost": 1.4604, "total_contest": 0.4901, "won_contest": 0.2091, "ball_recovery": 3.1982, "challenges_lost": 0.2979, "fouls": 1.2632, "fouls_drawn": 0.743, "blocks": 0.6733, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0841, "assist_rate": 0.0841, "expected_goals": 0.0905, "expected_assists": 0.0829, "shots_on_target": 0.2627, "big_chances_created": 0.1137, "xgot": 0.0551, "ball_carries": 10.6053, "total_progression": 39.7992, "progressive_carries": 0.6893, "key_pass": 0.8344, "shots_off_target": 0.2672 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0092, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9479, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.249, "after": 1.2632 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.7292, "after": 0.743 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9734, "tackles": 1.6074, "tackles_won": 1.0, "clearances": 3.1588, "aerial_won": 1.0068, "total_shots": 0.5299, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 85.31, "total_pass": 40.775, "accurate_pass": 33.7238, "duels_won": 3.1933, "total_long_balls": 3.6602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0945, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9713, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5625, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7525, "crosses_total": 1.3282, "crosses_accurate": 0.4222, "touches": 59.7492, "possession_lost": 9.6765, "dispossessed": 0.0645, "duels_lost": 3.3528, "aerial_lost": 1.4604, "total_contest": 0.4901, "won_contest": 0.2091, "ball_recovery": 3.1982, "challenges_lost": 0.2979, "fouls": 1.2632, "fouls_drawn": 0.743, "blocks": 0.6733, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0841, "assist_rate": 0.0841, "expected_goals": 0.0905, "expected_assists": 0.0829, "shots_on_target": 0.2627, "big_chances_created": 0.1137, "xgot": 0.0551, "ball_carries": 10.6053, "total_progression": 39.7992, "progressive_carries": 0.6893, "key_pass": 0.8344, "shots_off_target": 0.2672 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9734, "tackles": 1.6074, "tackles_won": 1.0, "clearances": 3.1588, "aerial_won": 1.0068, "total_shots": 0.5299, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 85.31, "total_pass": 40.775, "accurate_pass": 33.7238, "duels_won": 3.1933, "total_long_balls": 3.6602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0945, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9713, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5625, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7525, "crosses_total": 1.3282, "crosses_accurate": 0.4222, "touches": 59.7492, "possession_lost": 9.6765, "dispossessed": 0.0645, "duels_lost": 3.3528, "aerial_lost": 1.4604, "total_contest": 0.4901, "won_contest": 0.2091, "ball_recovery": 3.1982, "challenges_lost": 0.2979, "fouls": 1.2632, "fouls_drawn": 0.743, "blocks": 0.6733, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0841, "assist_rate": 0.0841, "expected_goals": 0.0905, "expected_assists": 0.0829, "shots_on_target": 0.2627, "big_chances_created": 0.1137, "xgot": 0.0551, "ball_carries": 10.6053, "total_progression": 39.7992, "progressive_carries": 0.6893, "key_pass": 0.8344, "shots_off_target": 0.2672, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Jack Clarke", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jack Clarke", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3470, xG scale 0.9666, xA scale 1.0085, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9734, "tackles": 1.6074, "tackles_won": 1.0, "clearances": 3.1588, "aerial_won": 1.0068, "total_shots": 0.5299, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 85.31, "total_pass": 40.775, "accurate_pass": 33.7238, "duels_won": 3.1933, "total_long_balls": 3.6602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0945, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9713, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5625, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7525, "crosses_total": 1.3282, "crosses_accurate": 0.4222, "touches": 59.7492, "possession_lost": 9.6765, "dispossessed": 0.0645, "duels_lost": 3.3528, "aerial_lost": 1.4604, "total_contest": 0.4901, "won_contest": 0.2091, "ball_recovery": 3.1982, "challenges_lost": 0.2979, "fouls": 1.2632, "fouls_drawn": 0.743, "blocks": 0.6733, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0841, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0875, "expected_assists": 0.0836, "shots_on_target": 0.2627, "big_chances_created": 0.1137, "xgot": 0.0533, "ball_carries": 10.6053, "total_progression": 39.7992, "progressive_carries": 0.6893, "key_pass": 0.8344, "shots_off_target": 0.2672, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Jack Clarke", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.009 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.347, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8391, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9666, "xa_scale": 1.0085, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9734, "tackles": 1.6074, "tackles_won": 1.0, "clearances": 3.1588, "aerial_won": 1.0068, "total_shots": 0.5299, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 85.31, "total_pass": 40.775, "accurate_pass": 33.7238, "duels_won": 3.1933, "total_long_balls": 3.6602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0945, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9713, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5625, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7525, "crosses_total": 1.3282, "crosses_accurate": 0.4222, "touches": 59.7492, "possession_lost": 9.6765, "dispossessed": 0.0645, "duels_lost": 3.3528, "aerial_lost": 1.4604, "total_contest": 0.4901, "won_contest": 0.2091, "ball_recovery": 3.1982, "challenges_lost": 0.2979, "fouls": 1.2632, "fouls_drawn": 0.743, "blocks": 0.6733, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0841, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0875, "expected_assists": 0.0836, "shots_on_target": 0.2627, "big_chances_created": 0.1137, "xgot": 0.0533, "ball_carries": 10.6053, "total_progression": 39.7992, "progressive_carries": 0.6893, "key_pass": 0.8344, "shots_off_target": 0.2672, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Jack Clarke", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.009, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3169, "fifa_rank": 2190.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9734, "tackles": 1.6074, "tackles_won": 1.0, "clearances": 3.1588, "aerial_won": 1.0068, "total_shots": 0.5299, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 85.31, "total_pass": 40.775, "accurate_pass": 33.7238, "duels_won": 3.1933, "total_long_balls": 3.6602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0945, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9713, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5625, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7525, "crosses_total": 1.3282, "crosses_accurate": 0.4222, "touches": 59.7492, "possession_lost": 9.6765, "dispossessed": 0.0645, "duels_lost": 3.3528, "aerial_lost": 1.4604, "total_contest": 0.4901, "won_contest": 0.2091, "ball_recovery": 3.1982, "challenges_lost": 0.2979, "fouls": 1.2632, "fouls_drawn": 0.743, "blocks": 0.6733, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0841, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0875, "expected_assists": 0.0836, "shots_on_target": 0.2627, "big_chances_created": 0.1137, "xgot": 0.0533, "ball_carries": 10.6053, "total_progression": 39.7992, "progressive_carries": 0.6893, "key_pass": 0.8344, "shots_off_target": 0.2672, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Jack Clarke", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0838, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.009, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0838, "scorer_weight": 0.07, "squad_weight_total": 1.4299, "weight_share": 0.049, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9734, "tackles": 1.6074, "tackles_won": 1.0, "clearances": 3.1588, "aerial_won": 1.0068, "total_shots": 0.5299, "rating": 6.721, "minutes": 85.31, "total_pass": 40.775, "accurate_pass": 33.7238, "duels_won": 3.1933, "total_long_balls": 3.6602, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0945, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.9713, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.5625, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7525, "crosses_total": 1.3282, "crosses_accurate": 0.4222, "touches": 59.7492, "possession_lost": 9.6765, "dispossessed": 0.0645, "duels_lost": 3.3528, "aerial_lost": 1.4604, "total_contest": 0.4901, "won_contest": 0.2091, "ball_recovery": 3.1982, "challenges_lost": 0.2979, "fouls": 1.2632, "fouls_drawn": 0.743, "blocks": 0.6733, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0841, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0875, "expected_assists": 0.0836, "shots_on_target": 0.2627, "big_chances_created": 0.1137, "xgot": 0.0533, "ball_carries": 10.6053, "total_progression": 39.7992, "progressive_carries": 0.6893, "key_pass": 0.8344, "shots_off_target": 0.2672, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Jack Clarke", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0838, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0802, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.009, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0802, "provider_weight": 0.0844, "squad_weight_total": 0.7437, "weight_share": 0.1134, "creation_factor": 1.009, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Bernd Leno": { "player_id": 103335, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 190, "market_value": 5500000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0001, "rating": 6.9809, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 30, "total_long_balls": 14, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 49, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.7617, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 9.9841, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4099, "shots_faced": 13.4, "expected_saves": 3.28, "high_pressure_saves": 1.13, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 32, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.0629 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.8958 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 39, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.4348 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 30, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.3319 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 34, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.9787 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 26, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.1642 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 37, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.4913 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 28, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.2819 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023931, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 0.6589 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0666 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1549, "combined_rank_score": 633.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 416.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9263, "sofascore_appearances": 38.0, "fifa_rank": 850.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9809, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Bernd Leno", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alisher Salimov", "ranking": 1544 }, { "player_name": "Bu-Seong Jang", "ranking": 1545 }, { "player_name": "Her Dong-min", "ranking": 1546 }, { "player_name": "Filip Jørgensen", "ranking": 1547 }, { "player_name": "Olivier Boscagli", "ranking": 1548 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Fredrik Aursnes", "ranking": 1550 }, { "player_name": "Yuri Berchiche", "ranking": 1551 }, { "player_name": "Óscar Trejo", "ranking": 1552 }, { "player_name": "Han Jong-Mu", "ranking": 1553 }, { "player_name": "Eli Junior Kroupi", "ranking": 1554 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 43, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 43, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9989, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Fulham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 43 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Fulham, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.7681, "goals_prevented": 0.0001, "rating": 6.9809, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.7088, "accurate_pass": 29.778, "total_long_balls": 14.0298, "accurate_long_balls": 4.197, "touches": 49.3629, "clearances": 1.1328, "ball_recovery": 8.3786, "high_claims": 0.792, "punches": 0.7625, "aerial_won": 0.3297, "sweeper_actions": 1.3979, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3979, "saves_inside_box": 1.7476, "possession_lost": 9.9951, "duels_won": 0.3759, "duels_lost": 0.0081, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0627, "total_own_half_passes": 27.3047, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6535 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:04:18.353158+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 199, "rows": 6796 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.6821, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9774, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.4459, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.2497, "save_contribution": 3.0689, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.3979 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.768148183822632, "model_output": 2.7681, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0362 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9286, "items": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.068 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0459 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0323, "total": 2.7681, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.074537, "item_margins": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.023477 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.016183 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.005182 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.004388 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": -0.0043 } ], "others_margin": -0.011605 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 8.599204011261463e-05, "model_output": 0.0001, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0385 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0166, "items": [ { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.0222 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": -0.0051, "total": 0.0001, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": 0.022153 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.015448 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.01313 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.010451 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.008648 } ], "others_margin": -0.00494 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.980898857116699, "model_output": 6.9809, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0323 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0117 } ], "others": 0.0199, "total": 6.9809, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.009122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.032268 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.029867 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.018475 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.015496 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.011687 } ], "others_margin": 0.019836 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 43, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9989, quality 0.468)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7651, "goals_prevented": 0.0001, "rating": 6.9809, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.6651, "accurate_pass": 29.7452, "total_long_balls": 14.0144, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1924, "touches": 49.3086, "clearances": 1.1316, "ball_recovery": 8.3694, "high_claims": 0.7911, "punches": 0.7617, "aerial_won": 0.3293, "sweeper_actions": 1.3964, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3964, "saves_inside_box": 1.7457, "possession_lost": 9.9841, "duels_won": 0.3755, "duels_lost": 0.0081, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0626, "total_own_half_passes": 27.2747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6242 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5500000, "quality_factor": 0.4683, "boost_factor": 0.9989, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0090)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7672, "goals_prevented": 0.0001, "rating": 6.9809, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.6651, "accurate_pass": 29.7452, "total_long_balls": 14.0144, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1924, "touches": 49.3086, "clearances": 1.1316, "ball_recovery": 8.3694, "high_claims": 0.7911, "punches": 0.7617, "aerial_won": 0.3293, "sweeper_actions": 1.3964, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3964, "saves_inside_box": 1.7457, "possession_lost": 9.9841, "duels_won": 0.3755, "duels_lost": 0.0081, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.062, "total_own_half_passes": 27.2747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6242 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.009, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.7672, "goals_prevented": 0.0001, "rating": 6.9809, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.6651, "accurate_pass": 29.7452, "total_long_balls": 14.0144, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1924, "touches": 49.3086, "clearances": 1.1316, "ball_recovery": 8.3694, "high_claims": 0.7911, "punches": 0.7617, "aerial_won": 0.3293, "sweeper_actions": 1.3964, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3964, "saves_inside_box": 1.7457, "possession_lost": 9.9841, "duels_won": 0.3755, "duels_lost": 0.0081, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.062, "total_own_half_passes": 27.2747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6242 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7672, "goals_prevented": 0.0001, "rating": 6.9809, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.6651, "accurate_pass": 29.7452, "total_long_balls": 14.0144, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1924, "touches": 49.3086, "clearances": 1.1316, "ball_recovery": 8.3694, "high_claims": 0.7911, "punches": 0.7617, "aerial_won": 0.3293, "sweeper_actions": 1.3964, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3964, "saves_inside_box": 1.7457, "possession_lost": 9.9841, "duels_won": 0.3755, "duels_lost": 0.0081, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.062, "total_own_half_passes": 27.2747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6242, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4099, "shots_faced": 13.4, "expected_saves": 3.28, "high_pressure_saves": 1.13, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.4099 } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3470, xG scale 0.9666, xA scale 1.0085, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7672, "goals_prevented": 0.0001, "rating": 6.9809, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.6651, "accurate_pass": 29.7452, "total_long_balls": 14.0144, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1924, "touches": 49.3086, "clearances": 1.1316, "ball_recovery": 8.3694, "high_claims": 0.7911, "punches": 0.7617, "aerial_won": 0.3293, "sweeper_actions": 1.3964, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3964, "saves_inside_box": 1.7457, "possession_lost": 9.9841, "duels_won": 0.3755, "duels_lost": 0.0081, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.062, "total_own_half_passes": 27.2747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6242, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4099, "shots_faced": 13.4, "expected_saves": 3.28, "high_pressure_saves": 1.13, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.347, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8391, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9666, "xa_scale": 1.0085, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7672, "goals_prevented": 0.0001, "rating": 6.9809, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.6651, "accurate_pass": 29.7452, "total_long_balls": 14.0144, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1924, "touches": 49.3086, "clearances": 1.1316, "ball_recovery": 8.3694, "high_claims": 0.7911, "punches": 0.7617, "aerial_won": 0.3293, "sweeper_actions": 1.3964, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3964, "saves_inside_box": 1.7457, "possession_lost": 9.9841, "duels_won": 0.3755, "duels_lost": 0.0081, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.062, "total_own_half_passes": 27.2747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6242, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4099, "shots_faced": 13.4, "expected_saves": 3.28, "high_pressure_saves": 1.13, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1549, "fifa_rank": 850.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "saves": 2.7672, "goals_prevented": 0.0001, "rating": 6.9809, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.6651, "accurate_pass": 29.7452, "total_long_balls": 14.0144, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1924, "touches": 49.3086, "clearances": 1.1316, "ball_recovery": 8.3694, "high_claims": 0.7911, "punches": 0.7617, "aerial_won": 0.3293, "sweeper_actions": 1.3964, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3964, "saves_inside_box": 1.7457, "possession_lost": 9.9841, "duels_won": 0.3755, "duels_lost": 0.0081, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.062, "total_own_half_passes": 27.2747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6242, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4099, "shots_faced": 13.4, "expected_saves": 3.28, "high_pressure_saves": 1.13, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.4299, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "saves": 2.7672, "goals_prevented": 0.0001, "rating": 6.9809, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.6651, "accurate_pass": 29.7452, "total_long_balls": 14.0144, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1924, "touches": 49.3086, "clearances": 1.1316, "ball_recovery": 8.3694, "high_claims": 0.7911, "punches": 0.7617, "aerial_won": 0.3293, "sweeper_actions": 1.3964, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3964, "saves_inside_box": 1.7457, "possession_lost": 9.9841, "duels_won": 0.3755, "duels_lost": 0.0081, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.062, "total_own_half_passes": 27.2747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6242, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4099, "shots_faced": 13.4, "expected_saves": 3.28, "high_pressure_saves": 1.13, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.7437, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } } ] }, "Sander Berge": { "player_id": 793167, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 195, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0634, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0596, "goal_rate": 0.0729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9338, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 46, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 7.4397, "dispossessed": 0.8645, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0819, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0882, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.48, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0579, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0614, "finishing_factor": 1.1003, "creation_factor": 1.0106, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0501, "expected_assists": 0.021, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 43, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0105, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 34, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1964, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 50, "key_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0294, "expected_assists": 0.0271, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 58, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 50, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1642, "expected_assists": 0.0121, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 33, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0555, "expected_assists": 0.1367, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024000, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0306, "expected_assists": 0.1462, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 50, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024016, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0485, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 60, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1037, "combined_rank_score": 465.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 69.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.5875, "sofascore_appearances": 8.0, "fifa_rank": 861.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9338, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sander Berge", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Carlos Romero", "ranking": 1032 }, { "player_name": "Shota Gvazava", "ranking": 1033 }, { "player_name": "Joachim Andersen", "ranking": 1034 }, { "player_name": "Alisson", "ranking": 1035 }, { "player_name": "Anthony Elanga", "ranking": 1036 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Rustam Nartazhiev", "ranking": 1038 }, { "player_name": "Christian Bravo", "ranking": 1039 }, { "player_name": "Julián Quiñones", "ranking": 1040 }, { "player_name": "Alex Iwobi", "ranking": 1041 }, { "player_name": "Lee Ji-Hoon", "ranking": 1042 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.767, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.006, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Fulham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 154.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.58, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1133 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 40 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Fulham, rel: 0.11, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8554, "expected_assists": 0.0626, "assists": 0.0642, "assist_rate": 0.0642, "expected_goals": 0.0563, "goals": 0.0672, "goal_rate": 0.0672, "shots_on_target": 0.2004, "total_shots": 0.6439, "rating": 6.9338, "minutes": 81.78, "total_pass": 50.5857, "accurate_pass": 45.357, "duels_won": 2.6791, "total_long_balls": 2.3786, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1636, "total_own_half_passes": 26.9631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.1733, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6226, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1837, "crosses_total": 0.2612, "crosses_accurate": 0.0109, "touches": 59.1807, "possession_lost": 7.3953, "dispossessed": 0.8593, "duels_lost": 3.1558, "aerial_won": 0.7735, "aerial_lost": 0.9689, "interceptions": 0.5889, "tackles_won": 0.7777, "tackles": 1.287, "clearances": 1.1226, "total_contest": 0.3172, "won_contest": 0.1638, "challenges_lost": 0.4961, "fouls": 0.678, "fouls_drawn": 0.4548, "blocks": 0.3605, "big_chances_created": 0.1248, "big_chances_missed": 0.0898, "xgot": 0.0773, "ball_carries": 20.42, "total_progression": 58.4418, "progressive_carries": 1.5689, "shots_off_target": 0.4435 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.5562, "creative_index": 0.4278, "expectedGoals": 0.0325, "expectedAssists": 0.0583, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.1532 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8553817272186279, "model_output": 0.8554, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.12 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.114 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0764 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0582 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0356 } ], "others": -0.0194, "total": 0.8554, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126961 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.120299 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.082155 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.061992 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.039861 } ], "others_margin": -0.022355 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06256542354822159, "model_output": 0.0626, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0097 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0027 } ], "others": 0.0018, "total": 0.0626, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.259055 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.136661 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.133423 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.044686 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.042805 } ], "others_margin": 0.027811 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.0642385482788086, "model_output": 0.0642, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0064 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0041 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0039 } ], "others": -0.0072, "total": 0.0642, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.149428 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.125179 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.093639 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.055654 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.053615 } ], "others_margin": -0.103818 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.05632191523909569, "model_output": 0.0563, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0066 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0038 } ], "others": -0.0166, "total": 0.0563, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.16207 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.158452 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.128346 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.082138 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.050168 } ], "others_margin": -0.259722 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.06717883795499802, "model_output": 0.0672, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0078 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0039 } ], "others": -0.0023, "total": 0.0672, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.173993 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.119185 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.102321 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.094 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.053969 } ], "others_margin": -0.035156 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.20038634538650513, "model_output": 0.2004, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0771 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0291 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0271, "total": 0.2004, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.271773 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.221572 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.137325 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.044426 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.041603 } ], "others_margin": -0.127272 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6438481211662292, "model_output": 0.6438, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2583 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1225 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0567 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0263 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0162 } ], "others": -0.1117, "total": 0.6438, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.258296 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122492 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.056715 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.026285 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016245 } ], "others_margin": -0.111567 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.933772563934326, "model_output": 6.9338, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0763 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0352 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0261 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0167 } ], "others": -0.0145, "total": 6.9338, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.076332 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.035165 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.026121 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021526 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016724 } ], "others_margin": -0.014465 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0060, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8605, "expected_assists": 0.0629, "assists": 0.0646, "assist_rate": 0.0646, "expected_goals": 0.0567, "goals": 0.0676, "goal_rate": 0.0676, "shots_on_target": 0.2016, "total_shots": 0.6478, "rating": 6.9338, "minutes": 81.78, "total_pass": 50.8892, "accurate_pass": 45.6291, "duels_won": 2.6952, "total_long_balls": 2.3929, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1706, "total_own_half_passes": 27.1249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.3243, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7643, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.3048, "crosses_total": 0.2628, "crosses_accurate": 0.011, "touches": 59.5358, "possession_lost": 7.4397, "dispossessed": 0.8645, "duels_lost": 3.1747, "aerial_won": 0.7781, "aerial_lost": 0.9747, "interceptions": 0.5924, "tackles_won": 0.7824, "tackles": 1.2947, "clearances": 1.1293, "total_contest": 0.3191, "won_contest": 0.1648, "challenges_lost": 0.4991, "fouls": 0.6821, "fouls_drawn": 0.4575, "blocks": 0.3627, "big_chances_created": 0.1255, "big_chances_missed": 0.0903, "xgot": 0.0778, "ball_carries": 20.5425, "total_progression": 58.7925, "progressive_carries": 1.5783, "shots_off_target": 0.4462 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.006, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0082)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8605, "expected_assists": 0.0629, "assists": 0.0641, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "expected_goals": 0.0567, "goals": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.067, "shots_on_target": 0.2, "total_shots": 0.6468, "rating": 6.9338, "minutes": 81.78, "total_pass": 50.8892, "accurate_pass": 45.6291, "duels_won": 2.6952, "total_long_balls": 2.3929, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1706, "total_own_half_passes": 27.1249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.3243, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7643, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.3048, "crosses_total": 0.265, "crosses_accurate": 0.011, "touches": 59.5358, "possession_lost": 7.4397, "dispossessed": 0.8645, "duels_lost": 3.1747, "aerial_won": 0.7781, "aerial_lost": 0.9747, "interceptions": 0.5876, "tackles_won": 0.776, "tackles": 1.2947, "clearances": 1.1293, "total_contest": 0.3191, "won_contest": 0.1648, "challenges_lost": 0.4991, "fouls": 0.6809, "fouls_drawn": 0.4538, "blocks": 0.3627, "big_chances_created": 0.1255, "big_chances_missed": 0.0903, "xgot": 0.0778, "ball_carries": 20.5425, "total_progression": 58.7925, "progressive_carries": 1.5783, "shots_off_target": 0.4462 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0082, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9087, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7824, "after": 0.776 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8605, "expected_assists": 0.0629, "assists": 0.0641, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "expected_goals": 0.0567, "goals": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.067, "shots_on_target": 0.2, "total_shots": 0.6468, "rating": 6.9338, "minutes": 81.78, "total_pass": 50.8892, "accurate_pass": 45.6291, "duels_won": 2.6952, "total_long_balls": 2.3929, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1706, "total_own_half_passes": 27.1249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.3243, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7643, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.3048, "crosses_total": 0.265, "crosses_accurate": 0.011, "touches": 59.5358, "possession_lost": 7.4397, "dispossessed": 0.8645, "duels_lost": 3.1747, "aerial_won": 0.7781, "aerial_lost": 0.9747, "interceptions": 0.5876, "tackles_won": 0.776, "tackles": 1.2947, "clearances": 1.1293, "total_contest": 0.3191, "won_contest": 0.1648, "challenges_lost": 0.4991, "fouls": 0.6809, "fouls_drawn": 0.4538, "blocks": 0.3627, "big_chances_created": 0.1255, "big_chances_missed": 0.0903, "xgot": 0.0778, "ball_carries": 20.5425, "total_progression": 58.7925, "progressive_carries": 1.5783, "shots_off_target": 0.4462 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8605, "expected_assists": 0.0629, "assists": 0.0641, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "expected_goals": 0.0617, "goals": 0.0729, "goal_rate": 0.0729, "shots_on_target": 0.2176, "total_shots": 0.7038, "rating": 6.9338, "minutes": 81.78, "total_pass": 50.8892, "accurate_pass": 45.6291, "duels_won": 2.6952, "total_long_balls": 2.3929, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1706, "total_own_half_passes": 27.1249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.3243, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7643, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.3048, "crosses_total": 0.265, "crosses_accurate": 0.011, "touches": 59.5358, "possession_lost": 7.4397, "dispossessed": 0.8645, "duels_lost": 3.1747, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 0.9747, "interceptions": 0.5876, "tackles_won": 0.776, "tackles": 1.2947, "clearances": 1.1293, "total_contest": 0.3191, "won_contest": 0.1648, "challenges_lost": 0.4991, "fouls": 0.6809, "fouls_drawn": 0.4538, "blocks": 0.3627, "big_chances_created": 0.1255, "big_chances_missed": 0.0983, "xgot": 0.0847, "ball_carries": 20.5425, "total_progression": 58.7925, "progressive_carries": 1.5783, "shots_off_target": 0.4856, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0882, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.48, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.48, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0882, "skill_edge": 0.0, "height_edge": 0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.7219, "defender_skill": 0.7219, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Exequiel Palacios", "market_value": 26000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.7219 } ], "xg_override": 0.0617 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.7781, "after": 1.4 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6468, "after": 0.7038 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4462, "after": 0.4856 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2, "after": 0.2176 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.0903, "after": 0.0983 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0778, "after": 0.0847 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.067, "after": 0.0729 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3470, xG scale 0.9666, xA scale 1.0085, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8605, "expected_assists": 0.0634, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0596, "goal_rate": 0.0729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2176, "total_shots": 0.7038, "rating": 6.9338, "minutes": 81.78, "total_pass": 50.8892, "accurate_pass": 45.6291, "duels_won": 2.6952, "total_long_balls": 2.3929, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1706, "total_own_half_passes": 27.1249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.3243, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7643, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.3048, "crosses_total": 0.265, "crosses_accurate": 0.011, "touches": 59.5358, "possession_lost": 7.4397, "dispossessed": 0.8645, "duels_lost": 3.1747, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 0.9747, "interceptions": 0.5876, "tackles_won": 0.776, "tackles": 1.2947, "clearances": 1.1293, "total_contest": 0.3191, "won_contest": 0.1648, "challenges_lost": 0.4991, "fouls": 0.6809, "fouls_drawn": 0.4538, "blocks": 0.3627, "big_chances_created": 0.1255, "big_chances_missed": 0.0983, "xgot": 0.0819, "ball_carries": 20.5425, "total_progression": 58.7925, "progressive_carries": 1.5783, "shots_off_target": 0.4856, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0882, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.48, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1003, "creation_factor": 1.0106 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.347, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8391, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9666, "xa_scale": 1.0085, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8605, "expected_assists": 0.0634, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0596, "goal_rate": 0.0729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2176, "total_shots": 0.7038, "rating": 6.9338, "minutes": 81.78, "total_pass": 50.8892, "accurate_pass": 45.6291, "duels_won": 2.6952, "total_long_balls": 2.3929, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1706, "total_own_half_passes": 27.1249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.3243, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7643, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.3048, "crosses_total": 0.265, "crosses_accurate": 0.011, "touches": 59.5358, "possession_lost": 7.4397, "dispossessed": 0.8645, "duels_lost": 3.1747, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 0.9747, "interceptions": 0.5876, "tackles_won": 0.776, "tackles": 1.2947, "clearances": 1.1293, "total_contest": 0.3191, "won_contest": 0.1648, "challenges_lost": 0.4991, "fouls": 0.6809, "fouls_drawn": 0.4538, "blocks": 0.3627, "big_chances_created": 0.1255, "big_chances_missed": 0.0983, "xgot": 0.0819, "ball_carries": 20.5425, "total_progression": 58.7925, "progressive_carries": 1.5783, "shots_off_target": 0.4856, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0882, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.48, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1003, "creation_factor": 1.0106, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1037, "fifa_rank": 861.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8605, "expected_assists": 0.0634, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0596, "goal_rate": 0.0729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2176, "total_shots": 0.7038, "rating": 6.9338, "minutes": 81.78, "total_pass": 50.8892, "accurate_pass": 45.6291, "duels_won": 2.6952, "total_long_balls": 2.3929, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1706, "total_own_half_passes": 27.1249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.3243, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7643, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.3048, "crosses_total": 0.265, "crosses_accurate": 0.011, "touches": 59.5358, "possession_lost": 7.4397, "dispossessed": 0.8645, "duels_lost": 3.1747, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 0.9747, "interceptions": 0.5876, "tackles_won": 0.776, "tackles": 1.2947, "clearances": 1.1293, "total_contest": 0.3191, "won_contest": 0.1648, "challenges_lost": 0.4991, "fouls": 0.6809, "fouls_drawn": 0.4538, "blocks": 0.3627, "big_chances_created": 0.1255, "big_chances_missed": 0.0983, "xgot": 0.0819, "ball_carries": 20.5425, "total_progression": 58.7925, "progressive_carries": 1.5783, "shots_off_target": 0.4856, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0882, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.48, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0579, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1003, "creation_factor": 1.0106, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0579, "scorer_weight": 0.0656, "squad_weight_total": 1.4299, "weight_share": 0.0459, "finishing_factor": 1.1003, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8605, "expected_assists": 0.0634, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0596, "goal_rate": 0.0729, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2176, "total_shots": 0.7038, "rating": 6.9338, "minutes": 81.78, "total_pass": 50.8892, "accurate_pass": 45.6291, "duels_won": 2.6952, "total_long_balls": 2.3929, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1706, "total_own_half_passes": 27.1249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.3243, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7643, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.3048, "crosses_total": 0.265, "crosses_accurate": 0.011, "touches": 59.5358, "possession_lost": 7.4397, "dispossessed": 0.8645, "duels_lost": 3.1747, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 0.9747, "interceptions": 0.5876, "tackles_won": 0.776, "tackles": 1.2947, "clearances": 1.1293, "total_contest": 0.3191, "won_contest": 0.1648, "challenges_lost": 0.4991, "fouls": 0.6809, "fouls_drawn": 0.4538, "blocks": 0.3627, "big_chances_created": 0.1255, "big_chances_missed": 0.0983, "xgot": 0.0819, "ball_carries": 20.5425, "total_progression": 58.7925, "progressive_carries": 1.5783, "shots_off_target": 0.4856, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0882, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.48, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0579, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0614, "finishing_factor": 1.1003, "creation_factor": 1.0106, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0614, "provider_weight": 0.0641, "squad_weight_total": 0.7437, "weight_share": 0.0862, "creation_factor": 1.0106, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Shea Charles": { "player_id": 1131449, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 189, "market_value": 14500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0445, "assist_rate": 0.0696, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0338, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9447, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 44, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 67, "possession_lost": 8.4751, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 3, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 83, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9907, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.414, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0332, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0435, "finishing_factor": 1.0071, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 52, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0897, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 49, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0906, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 20, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 27, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3733, "combined_rank_score": 1722.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 126.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.38, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 3319.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9447, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Shea Charles", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Oskar Pietuszewski", "ranking": 3728 }, { "player_name": "Honest Ahanor", "ranking": 3729 }, { "player_name": "Alexandru Mitriță", "ranking": 3730 }, { "player_name": "Fabio Carvalho", "ranking": 3731 }, { "player_name": "Facundo Buonanotte", "ranking": 3732 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mojmír Chytil", "ranking": 3734 }, { "player_name": "Kendry Páez", "ranking": 3735 }, { "player_name": "Josip Juranović", "ranking": 3736 }, { "player_name": "Michel Aebischer", "ranking": 3737 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Borré", "ranking": 3738 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.567, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.567, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0103, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Fulham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 47.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 3.83, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 5 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Fulham, rel: 0.03, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5724, "expected_assists": 0.0437, "assists": 0.0697, "assist_rate": 0.0697, "expected_goals": 0.0349, "goals": 0.0359, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "shots_on_target": 0.1522, "total_shots": 0.5206, "rating": 6.9447, "minutes": 86.55, "total_pass": 49.102, "accurate_pass": 43.3829, "duels_won": 3.8183, "total_long_balls": 2.3304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6113, "total_own_half_passes": 22.3848, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.8231, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.7172, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5598, "crosses_total": 0.3887, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 66.1944, "possession_lost": 8.3887, "dispossessed": 0.3304, "duels_lost": 3.2809, "aerial_won": 0.7191, "aerial_lost": 0.5617, "interceptions": 2.6113, "tackles_won": 0.7192, "tackles": 1.1079, "clearances": 2.2157, "total_contest": 1.3887, "won_contest": 1.0, "challenges_lost": 1.6696, "fouls": 0.3304, "fouls_drawn": 0.9913, "blocks": 2.9349, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.7493, "total_progression": 82.1506, "progressive_carries": 1.8426, "shots_off_target": 0.3684 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 22.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.3312, "creative_index": 0.2528, "expectedGoals": 0.015, "expectedAssists": 0.0317, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5724151730537415, "model_output": 0.5724, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1055 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0921 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0835 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0725 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0628 } ], "others": -0.1084, "total": 0.5724, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.112485 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.097464 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.097392 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.09308 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.088263 } ], "others_margin": -0.173362 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04367974400520325, "model_output": 0.0437, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0063 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0032 } ], "others": -0.0127, "total": 0.0437, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.214725 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.195163 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.104261 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.058295 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.054698 } ], "others_margin": -0.256204 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.06969521939754486, "model_output": 0.0697, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0084 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0067 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0071 } ], "others": -0.0188, "total": 0.0697, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.153904 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.108564 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.086022 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.085875 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.083256 } ], "others_margin": -0.238986 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03491894155740738, "model_output": 0.0349, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0341 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0077 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0072 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0039 } ], "others": -0.0193, "total": 0.0349, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.448011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.171942 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.165231 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.15399 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.074421 } ], "others_margin": -0.438036 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.035909656435251236, "model_output": 0.0359, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0077 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0047 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0045 } ], "others": -0.012, "total": 0.0359, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.311066 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.247821 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.149226 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.103251 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.099599 } ], "others_margin": -0.288571 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.15219661593437195, "model_output": 0.1522, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0822 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0143 } ], "others": -0.0316, "total": 0.1522, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.292505 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.224174 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119877 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.094855 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.074741 } ], "others_margin": -0.189145 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5205761790275574, "model_output": 0.5206, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2375 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1152 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0559 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0442 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0422 } ], "others": -0.2053, "total": 0.5206, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.237515 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115242 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.055878 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.044194 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.042168 } ], "others_margin": -0.205375 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.944713592529297, "model_output": 6.9447, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0635 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0293 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0189 } ], "others": -0.0664, "total": 6.9447, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.06348 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.02932 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.027514 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.023007 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.018928 } ], "others_margin": -0.066407 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0103, quality 0.574)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5783, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "assists": 0.0704, "assist_rate": 0.0704, "expected_goals": 0.0353, "goals": 0.0363, "goal_rate": 0.0363, "shots_on_target": 0.1538, "total_shots": 0.526, "rating": 6.9447, "minutes": 86.55, "total_pass": 49.6078, "accurate_pass": 43.8297, "duels_won": 3.8576, "total_long_balls": 2.3544, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0376, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.7922, "crosses_total": 0.3927, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 66.8762, "possession_lost": 8.4751, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 3.3147, "aerial_won": 0.7265, "aerial_lost": 0.5675, "interceptions": 2.6382, "tackles_won": 0.7266, "tackles": 1.1193, "clearances": 2.2385, "total_contest": 1.403, "won_contest": 1.0103, "challenges_lost": 1.6868, "fouls": 0.3338, "fouls_drawn": 1.0015, "blocks": 2.9651, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.9115, "total_progression": 82.9968, "progressive_carries": 1.8616, "shots_off_target": 0.3722 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14500000, "quality_factor": 0.5737, "boost_factor": 1.0103, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5783, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "assists": 0.0696, "assist_rate": 0.0696, "expected_goals": 0.0353, "goals": 0.0359, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "shots_on_target": 0.1521, "total_shots": 0.5602, "rating": 6.9447, "minutes": 86.55, "total_pass": 49.6078, "accurate_pass": 43.8297, "duels_won": 3.8576, "total_long_balls": 2.3544, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0376, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.7922, "crosses_total": 0.4093, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 66.8762, "possession_lost": 8.4751, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 3.3147, "aerial_won": 0.7265, "aerial_lost": 0.5675, "interceptions": 2.6305, "tackles_won": 0.7396, "tackles": 1.1193, "clearances": 2.2385, "total_contest": 1.403, "won_contest": 1.0103, "challenges_lost": 1.6868, "fouls": 0.3302, "fouls_drawn": 0.9907, "blocks": 2.9651, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.9115, "total_progression": 82.9968, "progressive_carries": 1.8616, "shots_off_target": 0.3722 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0108, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9617, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.526, "after": 0.5602 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.3927, "after": 0.4093 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7266, "after": 0.7396 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.0015, "after": 0.9907 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 2.6382, "after": 2.6305 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5783, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "assists": 0.0696, "assist_rate": 0.0696, "expected_goals": 0.0353, "goals": 0.0359, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "shots_on_target": 0.1521, "total_shots": 0.5602, "rating": 6.9447, "minutes": 86.55, "total_pass": 49.6078, "accurate_pass": 43.8297, "duels_won": 3.8576, "total_long_balls": 2.3544, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0376, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.7922, "crosses_total": 0.4093, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 66.8762, "possession_lost": 8.4751, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 3.3147, "aerial_won": 0.7265, "aerial_lost": 0.5675, "interceptions": 2.6305, "tackles_won": 0.7396, "tackles": 1.1193, "clearances": 2.2385, "total_contest": 1.403, "won_contest": 1.0103, "challenges_lost": 1.6868, "fouls": 0.3302, "fouls_drawn": 0.9907, "blocks": 2.9651, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.9115, "total_progression": 82.9968, "progressive_carries": 1.8616, "shots_off_target": 0.3722 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5783, "expected_assists": 0.0441, "assists": 0.0696, "assist_rate": 0.0696, "expected_goals": 0.035, "goals": 0.0356, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "shots_on_target": 0.1507, "total_shots": 0.555, "rating": 6.9447, "minutes": 86.55, "total_pass": 49.6078, "accurate_pass": 43.8297, "duels_won": 3.8576, "total_long_balls": 2.3544, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0376, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.7922, "crosses_total": 0.4093, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 66.8762, "possession_lost": 8.4751, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 3.3147, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.5675, "interceptions": 2.6305, "tackles_won": 0.7396, "tackles": 1.1193, "clearances": 2.2385, "total_contest": 1.403, "won_contest": 1.0103, "challenges_lost": 1.6868, "fouls": 0.3302, "fouls_drawn": 0.9907, "blocks": 2.9651, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.9115, "total_progression": 82.9968, "progressive_carries": 1.8616, "shots_off_target": 0.3687, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9907, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.414, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.414, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9907, "skill_edge": -0.0543, "height_edge": 0.048, "attacker_skill": 0.6012, "defender_skill": 0.7219, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Exequiel Palacios", "market_value": 26000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.7219 } ], "xg_override": 0.035 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.7265, "after": 1.3 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5602, "after": 0.555 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3470, xG scale 0.9666, xA scale 1.0085, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5783, "expected_assists": 0.0445, "assist_rate": 0.0696, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0338, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1507, "total_shots": 0.555, "rating": 6.9447, "minutes": 86.55, "total_pass": 49.6078, "accurate_pass": 43.8297, "duels_won": 3.8576, "total_long_balls": 2.3544, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0376, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.7922, "crosses_total": 0.4093, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 66.8762, "possession_lost": 8.4751, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 3.3147, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.5675, "interceptions": 2.6305, "tackles_won": 0.7396, "tackles": 1.1193, "clearances": 2.2385, "total_contest": 1.403, "won_contest": 1.0103, "challenges_lost": 1.6868, "fouls": 0.3302, "fouls_drawn": 0.9907, "blocks": 2.9651, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.9115, "total_progression": 82.9968, "progressive_carries": 1.8616, "shots_off_target": 0.3687, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9907, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.414, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0071, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.347, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8391, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9666, "xa_scale": 1.0085, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5783, "expected_assists": 0.0445, "assist_rate": 0.0696, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0338, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1507, "total_shots": 0.555, "rating": 6.9447, "minutes": 86.55, "total_pass": 49.6078, "accurate_pass": 43.8297, "duels_won": 3.8576, "total_long_balls": 2.3544, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0376, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.7922, "crosses_total": 0.4093, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 66.8762, "possession_lost": 8.4751, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 3.3147, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.5675, "interceptions": 2.6305, "tackles_won": 0.7396, "tackles": 1.1193, "clearances": 2.2385, "total_contest": 1.403, "won_contest": 1.0103, "challenges_lost": 1.6868, "fouls": 0.3302, "fouls_drawn": 0.9907, "blocks": 2.9651, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.9115, "total_progression": 82.9968, "progressive_carries": 1.8616, "shots_off_target": 0.3687, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9907, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.414, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0071, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3733, "fifa_rank": 3319.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5783, "expected_assists": 0.0445, "assist_rate": 0.0696, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0338, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1507, "total_shots": 0.555, "rating": 6.9447, "minutes": 86.55, "total_pass": 49.6078, "accurate_pass": 43.8297, "duels_won": 3.8576, "total_long_balls": 2.3544, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0376, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.7922, "crosses_total": 0.4093, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 66.8762, "possession_lost": 8.4751, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 3.3147, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.5675, "interceptions": 2.6305, "tackles_won": 0.7396, "tackles": 1.1193, "clearances": 2.2385, "total_contest": 1.403, "won_contest": 1.0103, "challenges_lost": 1.6868, "fouls": 0.3302, "fouls_drawn": 0.9907, "blocks": 2.9651, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.9115, "total_progression": 82.9968, "progressive_carries": 1.8616, "shots_off_target": 0.3687, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9907, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.414, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0332, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0071, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0332, "scorer_weight": 0.034, "squad_weight_total": 1.4299, "weight_share": 0.0238, "finishing_factor": 1.0071, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5783, "expected_assists": 0.0445, "assist_rate": 0.0696, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0338, "goal_rate": 0.0356, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1507, "total_shots": 0.555, "rating": 6.9447, "minutes": 86.55, "total_pass": 49.6078, "accurate_pass": 43.8297, "duels_won": 3.8576, "total_long_balls": 2.3544, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0376, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9924, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.7922, "crosses_total": 0.4093, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 66.8762, "possession_lost": 8.4751, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 3.3147, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.5675, "interceptions": 2.6305, "tackles_won": 0.7396, "tackles": 1.1193, "clearances": 2.2385, "total_contest": 1.403, "won_contest": 1.0103, "challenges_lost": 1.6868, "fouls": 0.3302, "fouls_drawn": 0.9907, "blocks": 2.9651, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.9115, "total_progression": 82.9968, "progressive_carries": 1.8616, "shots_off_target": 0.3687, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9907, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.414, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Exequiel Palacios", "opponent_faced": "Exequiel Palacios", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0332, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0435, "finishing_factor": 1.0071, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0435, "provider_weight": 0.0556, "squad_weight_total": 0.7437, "weight_share": 0.0748, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Josh King": { "player_id": 1546231, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 172, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1029, "assist_rate": 0.0747, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1787, "goal_rate": 0.2726, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 6.873, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 37, "possession_lost": 8.7495, "dispossessed": 0.8591, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2844, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 70, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.062, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.462, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Christian Walton", "opponent_faced": "Christian Walton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1636, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0978, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8204, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3752, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2125, "expected_assists": 0.0876, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3132, "expected_assists": 0.2695, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4696, "expected_assists": 0.035, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 30, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1714, "expected_assists": 0.0363, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0943, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0643, "expected_assists": 0.0288, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023931, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.033, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3080, "combined_rank_score": 1046.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 809.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6125, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 1284.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.873, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Joshua King", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Liam Delap", "ranking": 3075 }, { "player_name": "Leopold Querfeld", "ranking": 3076 }, { "player_name": "Daizen Maeda", "ranking": 3077 }, { "player_name": "Javi Galán", "ranking": 3078 }, { "player_name": "Matt O'Riley", "ranking": 3079 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Aitor Ruibal", "ranking": 3081 }, { "player_name": "Artem Bondarenko", "ranking": 3082 }, { "player_name": "Igor Jesus", "ranking": 3083 }, { "player_name": "Luis Rioja", "ranking": 3084 }, { "player_name": "Roberto Alvarado", "ranking": 3085 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 37, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0065, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 37 historical appearances across 8 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0547, "expected_assists": 0.1014, "assists": 0.0743, "assist_rate": 0.0743, "expected_goals": 0.173, "goals": 0.2551, "goal_rate": 0.2551, "shots_on_target": 0.794, "total_shots": 2.1055, "rating": 6.873, "minutes": 76.82, "total_pass": 24.7347, "accurate_pass": 20.5265, "duels_won": 3.7094, "total_long_balls": 0.8145, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3075, "total_own_half_passes": 9.483, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7481, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.2517, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7783, "crosses_total": 0.5748, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.2454, "possession_lost": 8.693, "dispossessed": 0.8536, "duels_lost": 3.7476, "aerial_won": 0.1837, "aerial_lost": 0.6683, "interceptions": 0.2226, "tackles_won": 0.6281, "tackles": 1.1192, "clearances": 0.5365, "total_contest": 2.4848, "won_contest": 1.1384, "challenges_lost": 0.3582, "fouls": 0.7429, "fouls_drawn": 1.2681, "blocks": 0.2218, "big_chances_created": 0.1326, "big_chances_missed": 0.3162, "xgot": 0.2752, "ball_carries": 14.6793, "total_progression": 69.9147, "progressive_carries": 3.5045, "shots_off_target": 1.3115 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.8769, "creative_index": 0.3066, "expectedGoals": 0.2063, "expectedAssists": 0.0608, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.9652 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.054666519165039, "model_output": 1.0547, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1195 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0806 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0626 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0601 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0411 } ], "others": 0.091, "total": 1.0547, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126521 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.083528 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.070074 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.067373 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.043635 } ], "others_margin": 0.090113 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.10136821120977402, "model_output": 0.1014, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0062 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0037 } ], "others": 0.0082, "total": 0.1014, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.133329 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.110608 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.06857 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.048253 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.040465 } ], "others_margin": 0.083549 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07426229119300842, "model_output": 0.0743, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0068 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0042 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0059, "total": 0.0743, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.113891 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.085844 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.049306 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.040958 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.040391 } ], "others_margin": -0.077658 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.17299307882785797, "model_output": 0.173, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.028 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0102, "total": 0.173, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.2599 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.178205 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.105952 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.071796 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.047128 } ], "others_margin": -0.057567 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.25505733489990234, "model_output": 0.2551, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0353 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0192 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0196 } ], "others": 0.0419, "total": 0.2551, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.308753 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.160849 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.116197 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.099243 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.096205 } ], "others_margin": 0.178899 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.79397052526474, "model_output": 0.794, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1088 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0753 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.068 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.049 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0504 } ], "others": 0.1185, "total": 0.794, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.289497 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.160325 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125677 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.081575 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.077532 } ], "others_margin": 0.161724 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.1054301261901855, "model_output": 2.1054, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.5038 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.185 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.1006 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0761 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0527 } ], "others": 0.1967, "total": 2.1054, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.503772 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.18497 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.100604 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.076131 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.052652 } ], "others_margin": 0.196836 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.872970104217529, "model_output": 6.873, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0341 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0243 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0131, "total": 6.873, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.034083 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.024261 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018714 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.017172 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.014706 } ], "others_margin": -0.013064 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0065, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0615, "expected_assists": 0.102, "assists": 0.0747, "assist_rate": 0.0747, "expected_goals": 0.1741, "goals": 0.2567, "goal_rate": 0.2567, "shots_on_target": 0.7991, "total_shots": 2.1192, "rating": 6.873, "minutes": 76.82, "total_pass": 24.8955, "accurate_pass": 20.6599, "duels_won": 3.7335, "total_long_balls": 0.8198, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5446, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.805, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.3508, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8549, "crosses_total": 0.5785, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.4875, "possession_lost": 8.7495, "dispossessed": 0.8591, "duels_lost": 3.772, "aerial_won": 0.1849, "aerial_lost": 0.6726, "interceptions": 0.224, "tackles_won": 0.6322, "tackles": 1.1265, "clearances": 0.54, "total_contest": 2.501, "won_contest": 1.1458, "challenges_lost": 0.3605, "fouls": 0.7477, "fouls_drawn": 1.2763, "blocks": 0.2232, "big_chances_created": 0.1335, "big_chances_missed": 0.3183, "xgot": 0.277, "ball_carries": 14.7747, "total_progression": 70.3691, "progressive_carries": 3.5273, "shots_off_target": 1.32 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0065, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0615, "expected_assists": 0.102, "assists": 0.0747, "assist_rate": 0.0747, "expected_goals": 0.1741, "goals": 0.2567, "goal_rate": 0.2567, "shots_on_target": 0.7991, "total_shots": 2.1192, "rating": 6.873, "minutes": 76.82, "total_pass": 24.8955, "accurate_pass": 20.6599, "duels_won": 3.7335, "total_long_balls": 0.8198, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5446, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.805, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.3508, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8549, "crosses_total": 0.5785, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.4875, "possession_lost": 8.7495, "dispossessed": 0.8591, "duels_lost": 3.772, "aerial_won": 0.1849, "aerial_lost": 0.6726, "interceptions": 0.224, "tackles_won": 0.6322, "tackles": 1.1265, "clearances": 0.54, "total_contest": 2.501, "won_contest": 1.1458, "challenges_lost": 0.3605, "fouls": 0.7477, "fouls_drawn": 1.2763, "blocks": 0.2232, "big_chances_created": 0.1335, "big_chances_missed": 0.3183, "xgot": 0.277, "ball_carries": 14.7747, "total_progression": 70.3691, "progressive_carries": 3.5273, "shots_off_target": 1.32 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0615, "expected_assists": 0.102, "assists": 0.0747, "assist_rate": 0.0747, "expected_goals": 0.1849, "goals": 0.2726, "goal_rate": 0.2726, "shots_on_target": 0.8486, "total_shots": 2.2506, "rating": 6.873, "minutes": 76.82, "total_pass": 24.8955, "accurate_pass": 20.6599, "duels_won": 3.7335, "total_long_balls": 0.8198, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5446, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.805, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.3508, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8549, "crosses_total": 0.5785, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.4875, "possession_lost": 8.7495, "dispossessed": 0.8591, "duels_lost": 3.772, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.6726, "interceptions": 0.224, "tackles_won": 0.6322, "tackles": 1.1265, "clearances": 0.54, "total_contest": 2.501, "won_contest": 1.1458, "challenges_lost": 0.3605, "fouls": 0.7477, "fouls_drawn": 1.2763, "blocks": 0.2232, "big_chances_created": 0.1335, "big_chances_missed": 0.338, "xgot": 0.2942, "ball_carries": 14.7747, "total_progression": 70.3691, "progressive_carries": 3.5273, "shots_off_target": 1.4018, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.062, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.462, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Christian Walton", "opponent_faced": "Christian Walton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Christian Walton", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.462, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.062, "skill_edge": 0.1022, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.6858, "defender_skill": 0.4588, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Christian Walton", "market_value": 2600000, "role": "GK", "price_index": 0.55, "adjusted_quality": 0.4588 } ], "xg_override": 0.1849 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.1849, "after": 0.8 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.1192, "after": 2.2506 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.32, "after": 1.4018 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7991, "after": 0.8486 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.3183, "after": 0.338 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.277, "after": 0.2942 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2567, "after": 0.2726 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1741, "after": 0.1849 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3470, xG scale 0.9666, xA scale 1.0085, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0615, "expected_assists": 0.1029, "assist_rate": 0.0747, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1787, "goal_rate": 0.2726, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8486, "total_shots": 2.2506, "rating": 6.873, "minutes": 76.82, "total_pass": 24.8955, "accurate_pass": 20.6599, "duels_won": 3.7335, "total_long_balls": 0.8198, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5446, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.805, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.3508, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8549, "crosses_total": 0.5785, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.4875, "possession_lost": 8.7495, "dispossessed": 0.8591, "duels_lost": 3.772, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.6726, "interceptions": 0.224, "tackles_won": 0.6322, "tackles": 1.1265, "clearances": 0.54, "total_contest": 2.501, "won_contest": 1.1458, "challenges_lost": 0.3605, "fouls": 0.7477, "fouls_drawn": 1.2763, "blocks": 0.2232, "big_chances_created": 0.1335, "big_chances_missed": 0.338, "xgot": 0.2844, "ball_carries": 14.7747, "total_progression": 70.3691, "progressive_carries": 3.5273, "shots_off_target": 1.4018, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.062, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.462, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Christian Walton", "opponent_faced": "Christian Walton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8204 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.347, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8391, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9666, "xa_scale": 1.0085, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1849, "after": 0.1787 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0615, "expected_assists": 0.1029, "assist_rate": 0.0747, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1787, "goal_rate": 0.2726, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8486, "total_shots": 2.2506, "rating": 6.873, "minutes": 76.82, "total_pass": 24.8955, "accurate_pass": 20.6599, "duels_won": 3.7335, "total_long_balls": 0.8198, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5446, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.805, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.3508, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8549, "crosses_total": 0.5785, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.4875, "possession_lost": 8.7495, "dispossessed": 0.8591, "duels_lost": 3.772, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.6726, "interceptions": 0.224, "tackles_won": 0.6322, "tackles": 1.1265, "clearances": 0.54, "total_contest": 2.501, "won_contest": 1.1458, "challenges_lost": 0.3605, "fouls": 0.7477, "fouls_drawn": 1.2763, "blocks": 0.2232, "big_chances_created": 0.1335, "big_chances_missed": 0.338, "xgot": 0.2844, "ball_carries": 14.7747, "total_progression": 70.3691, "progressive_carries": 3.5273, "shots_off_target": 1.4018, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.062, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.462, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Christian Walton", "opponent_faced": "Christian Walton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8204, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3080, "fifa_rank": 1284.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0615, "expected_assists": 0.1029, "assist_rate": 0.0747, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1787, "goal_rate": 0.2726, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8486, "total_shots": 2.2506, "rating": 6.873, "minutes": 76.82, "total_pass": 24.8955, "accurate_pass": 20.6599, "duels_won": 3.7335, "total_long_balls": 0.8198, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5446, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.805, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.3508, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8549, "crosses_total": 0.5785, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.4875, "possession_lost": 8.7495, "dispossessed": 0.8591, "duels_lost": 3.772, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.6726, "interceptions": 0.224, "tackles_won": 0.6322, "tackles": 1.1265, "clearances": 0.54, "total_contest": 2.501, "won_contest": 1.1458, "challenges_lost": 0.3605, "fouls": 0.7477, "fouls_drawn": 1.2763, "blocks": 0.2232, "big_chances_created": 0.1335, "big_chances_missed": 0.338, "xgot": 0.2844, "ball_carries": 14.7747, "total_progression": 70.3691, "progressive_carries": 3.5273, "shots_off_target": 1.4018, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.062, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.462, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Christian Walton", "opponent_faced": "Christian Walton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1636, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8204, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1636, "scorer_weight": 0.2234, "squad_weight_total": 1.4299, "weight_share": 0.1562, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0615, "expected_assists": 0.1029, "assist_rate": 0.0747, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1787, "goal_rate": 0.2726, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8486, "total_shots": 2.2506, "rating": 6.873, "minutes": 76.82, "total_pass": 24.8955, "accurate_pass": 20.6599, "duels_won": 3.7335, "total_long_balls": 0.8198, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5446, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.805, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.3508, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8549, "crosses_total": 0.5785, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.4875, "possession_lost": 8.7495, "dispossessed": 0.8591, "duels_lost": 3.772, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.6726, "interceptions": 0.224, "tackles_won": 0.6322, "tackles": 1.1265, "clearances": 0.54, "total_contest": 2.501, "won_contest": 1.1458, "challenges_lost": 0.3605, "fouls": 0.7477, "fouls_drawn": 1.2763, "blocks": 0.2232, "big_chances_created": 0.1335, "big_chances_missed": 0.338, "xgot": 0.2844, "ball_carries": 14.7747, "total_progression": 70.3691, "progressive_carries": 3.5273, "shots_off_target": 1.4018, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.062, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.462, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Christian Walton", "opponent_faced": "Christian Walton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1636, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0978, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8204, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0978, "provider_weight": 0.0844, "squad_weight_total": 0.7437, "weight_share": 0.1135, "creation_factor": 0.8204, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Oscar Bobb": { "player_id": 1065216, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 174, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goal_rate": 0.1364, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.111, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8425, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 37, "possession_lost": 9.226, "dispossessed": 1.1228, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0142, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0576, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 50, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9682, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0905, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1051, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2183, "expected_assists": 0.0893, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1348, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3189, "expected_assists": 0.6486, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2638, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1912, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2861, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.264, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023931, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0519, "expected_assists": 0.0184, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3088, "combined_rank_score": 1056.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 310.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0333, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 1803.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8425, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Oscar Bobb", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Igor Jesus", "ranking": 3083 }, { "player_name": "Luis Rioja", "ranking": 3084 }, { "player_name": "Roberto Alvarado", "ranking": 3085 }, { "player_name": "Callum Wilson", "ranking": 3086 }, { "player_name": "Victor Lindelöf", "ranking": 3087 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Emmanuel Agbadou", "ranking": 3089 }, { "player_name": "Luis Romo", "ranking": 3090 }, { "player_name": "Ryan Sessegnon", "ranking": 3091 }, { "player_name": "Albian Hajdari", "ranking": 3092 }, { "player_name": "Joe Willock", "ranking": 3093 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.765, "history_matches": 28, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 28, "data_confidence": 0.765, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0086, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Fulham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 133.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 28 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Fulham, rel: 0.10, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1005, "goals": 0.1411, "goal_rate": 0.1411, "shots_on_target": 0.4264, "total_shots": 1.0715, "expected_assists": 0.1092, "key_pass": 1.373, "rating": 6.8425, "minutes": 70.47, "total_pass": 22.4636, "accurate_pass": 19.1999, "duels_won": 3.2953, "total_long_balls": 0.32, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0308, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1607, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4719, "crosses_total": 2.0784, "crosses_accurate": 0.6953, "touches": 36.8465, "possession_lost": 9.1473, "dispossessed": 1.1132, "duels_lost": 3.8547, "aerial_lost": 0.4497, "total_contest": 2.3341, "won_contest": 0.8714, "ball_recovery": 2.8437, "challenges_lost": 0.5621, "fouls": 0.3046, "fouls_drawn": 0.8788, "assists": 0.0142, "assist_rate": 0.0142, "interceptions": 0.8922, "tackles_won": 0.3422, "tackles": 1.3783, "clearances": 0.0442, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1605, "big_chances_missed": 0.0211, "xgot": 0.0611, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7835, "total_progression": 49.524, "progressive_carries": 2.6511, "shots_off_target": 0.645 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1516, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1289, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1095, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0931, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0791, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0673, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0572, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0486, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0413, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 14.7496, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 12.3509, "accuratePass": 16.6039, "totalShots": 0.7309 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1005200743675232, "model_output": 0.1005, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0581 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0502 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0258 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0516, "total": 0.1005, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.256284 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.217131 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.133113 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.108753 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.065537 } ], "others_margin": -0.414469 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.14108383655548096, "model_output": 0.1411, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0703 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0407 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.008 } ], "others": -0.0388, "total": 0.1411, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.296331 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.160614 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.142622 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.074059 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.043249 } ], "others_margin": -0.243324 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.42644667625427246, "model_output": 0.4264, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1784 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0627 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0523 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0433 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0339 } ], "others": -0.0968, "total": 0.4264, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.286801 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.091675 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.08356 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.074805 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.062826 } ], "others_margin": -0.204408 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.071460247039795, "model_output": 1.0715, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3736 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1922 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0977 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0606 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0596 } ], "others": -0.2707, "total": 1.0715, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.373594 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.192171 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.097669 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.060582 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.059637 } ], "others_margin": -0.270781 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.10915159434080124, "model_output": 0.1092, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0132 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0102 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0044 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0043 } ], "others": 0.0025, "total": 0.1092, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.187105 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.12406 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.111497 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.044005 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.040729 } ], "others_margin": 0.022042 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.3730417490005493, "model_output": 1.373, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2123 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1188 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0779 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0776 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0297 } ], "others": 0.1827, "total": 1.373, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.273794 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.125827 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.074658 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.069203 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.025291 } ], "others_margin": 0.142816 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.842491626739502, "model_output": 6.8425, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0621 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0406 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0276 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.025 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0138 } ], "others": -0.0112, "total": 6.8425, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062065 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.04061 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.027611 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.025019 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.013813 } ], "others_margin": -0.011123 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0086, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1014, "goals": 0.1423, "goal_rate": 0.1423, "shots_on_target": 0.4301, "total_shots": 1.0807, "expected_assists": 0.1101, "key_pass": 1.3848, "rating": 6.8425, "minutes": 70.47, "total_pass": 22.6568, "accurate_pass": 19.365, "duels_won": 3.3236, "total_long_balls": 0.3228, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0311, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3083, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5964, "crosses_total": 2.0963, "crosses_accurate": 0.7013, "touches": 37.1634, "possession_lost": 9.226, "dispossessed": 1.1228, "duels_lost": 3.8879, "aerial_lost": 0.4536, "total_contest": 2.3542, "won_contest": 0.8789, "ball_recovery": 2.8682, "challenges_lost": 0.5669, "fouls": 0.3072, "fouls_drawn": 0.8864, "assists": 0.0143, "assist_rate": 0.0143, "interceptions": 0.8999, "tackles_won": 0.3451, "tackles": 1.3902, "clearances": 0.0446, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1619, "big_chances_missed": 0.0213, "xgot": 0.0616, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.8762, "total_progression": 49.9499, "progressive_carries": 2.6739, "shots_off_target": 0.6505 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0086, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0098)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1014, "goals": 0.1409, "goal_rate": 0.1409, "shots_on_target": 0.4259, "total_shots": 1.0701, "expected_assists": 0.1101, "key_pass": 1.3848, "rating": 6.8425, "minutes": 70.47, "total_pass": 22.6568, "accurate_pass": 19.365, "duels_won": 3.3236, "total_long_balls": 0.3228, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0311, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3083, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5964, "crosses_total": 2.0962, "crosses_accurate": 0.7013, "touches": 37.1634, "possession_lost": 9.226, "dispossessed": 1.1228, "duels_lost": 3.8879, "aerial_lost": 0.4536, "total_contest": 2.3542, "won_contest": 0.8789, "ball_recovery": 2.8682, "challenges_lost": 0.5669, "fouls": 0.3145, "fouls_drawn": 0.8931, "assists": 0.0142, "assist_rate": 0.0142, "interceptions": 0.9013, "tackles_won": 0.3468, "tackles": 1.3902, "clearances": 0.0446, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1619, "big_chances_missed": 0.0213, "xgot": 0.0616, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.8762, "total_progression": 49.9499, "progressive_carries": 2.6739, "shots_off_target": 0.6505 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0098, "history_matches": 28, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.783, "prior_reliability": 0.1, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0807, "after": 1.0701 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.3072, "after": 0.3145 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.8864, "after": 0.8931 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1014, "goals": 0.1409, "goal_rate": 0.1409, "shots_on_target": 0.4259, "total_shots": 1.0764, "expected_assists": 0.1101, "key_pass": 1.3848, "rating": 6.8425, "minutes": 70.47, "total_pass": 22.6568, "accurate_pass": 19.365, "duels_won": 3.3236, "total_long_balls": 0.3228, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0311, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3083, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5964, "crosses_total": 2.0962, "crosses_accurate": 0.7013, "touches": 37.1634, "possession_lost": 9.226, "dispossessed": 1.1228, "duels_lost": 3.8879, "aerial_lost": 0.4536, "total_contest": 2.3542, "won_contest": 0.8789, "ball_recovery": 2.8682, "challenges_lost": 0.5669, "fouls": 0.3145, "fouls_drawn": 0.8931, "assists": 0.0142, "assist_rate": 0.0142, "interceptions": 0.9013, "tackles_won": 0.3468, "tackles": 1.3902, "clearances": 0.0446, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1619, "big_chances_missed": 0.0213, "xgot": 0.0616, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.8762, "total_progression": 49.9499, "progressive_carries": 2.6739, "shots_off_target": 0.6505 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0982, "goals": 0.1364, "goal_rate": 0.1364, "shots_on_target": 0.4124, "total_shots": 1.0422, "expected_assists": 0.1101, "key_pass": 1.3848, "rating": 6.8425, "minutes": 70.47, "total_pass": 22.6568, "accurate_pass": 19.365, "duels_won": 3.3236, "total_long_balls": 0.3228, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0311, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3083, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5964, "crosses_total": 2.0962, "crosses_accurate": 0.7013, "touches": 37.1634, "possession_lost": 9.226, "dispossessed": 1.1228, "duels_lost": 3.8879, "aerial_lost": 0.4536, "total_contest": 2.3542, "won_contest": 0.8789, "ball_recovery": 2.8682, "challenges_lost": 0.5669, "fouls": 0.3145, "fouls_drawn": 0.8931, "assists": 0.0142, "assist_rate": 0.0142, "interceptions": 0.9013, "tackles_won": 0.3468, "tackles": 1.3902, "clearances": 0.0446, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1619, "big_chances_missed": 0.0206, "xgot": 0.0596, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.8762, "total_progression": 49.9499, "progressive_carries": 2.6739, "shots_off_target": 0.6298, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9682, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9682, "skill_edge": 0.0344, "height_edge": -0.056, "attacker_skill": 0.6941, "defender_skill": 0.6178, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Leif Davis", "market_value": 21000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7022 }, { "player": "Issa Diop", "market_value": 8199999, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5334 } ], "xg_override": 0.0982 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0764, "after": 1.0422 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6505, "after": 0.6298 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4259, "after": 0.4124 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3470, xG scale 0.9666, xA scale 1.0085, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goal_rate": 0.1364, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4124, "total_shots": 1.0422, "expected_assists": 0.111, "key_pass": 1.3848, "rating": 6.8425, "minutes": 70.47, "total_pass": 22.6568, "accurate_pass": 19.365, "duels_won": 3.3236, "total_long_balls": 0.3228, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0311, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3083, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5964, "crosses_total": 2.0962, "crosses_accurate": 0.7013, "touches": 37.1634, "possession_lost": 9.226, "dispossessed": 1.1228, "duels_lost": 3.8879, "aerial_lost": 0.4536, "total_contest": 2.3542, "won_contest": 0.8789, "ball_recovery": 2.8682, "challenges_lost": 0.5669, "fouls": 0.3145, "fouls_drawn": 0.8931, "assist_rate": 0.0142, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9013, "tackles_won": 0.3468, "tackles": 1.3902, "clearances": 0.0446, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1619, "big_chances_missed": 0.0206, "xgot": 0.0576, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.8762, "total_progression": 49.9499, "progressive_carries": 2.6739, "shots_off_target": 0.6298, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9682, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.347, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8391, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9666, "xa_scale": 1.0085, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goal_rate": 0.1364, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4124, "total_shots": 1.0422, "expected_assists": 0.111, "key_pass": 1.3848, "rating": 6.8425, "minutes": 70.47, "total_pass": 22.6568, "accurate_pass": 19.365, "duels_won": 3.3236, "total_long_balls": 0.3228, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0311, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3083, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5964, "crosses_total": 2.0962, "crosses_accurate": 0.7013, "touches": 37.1634, "possession_lost": 9.226, "dispossessed": 1.1228, "duels_lost": 3.8879, "aerial_lost": 0.4536, "total_contest": 2.3542, "won_contest": 0.8789, "ball_recovery": 2.8682, "challenges_lost": 0.5669, "fouls": 0.3145, "fouls_drawn": 0.8931, "assist_rate": 0.0142, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9013, "tackles_won": 0.3468, "tackles": 1.3902, "clearances": 0.0446, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1619, "big_chances_missed": 0.0206, "xgot": 0.0576, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.8762, "total_progression": 49.9499, "progressive_carries": 2.6739, "shots_off_target": 0.6298, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9682, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3088, "fifa_rank": 1803.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goal_rate": 0.1364, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4124, "total_shots": 1.0422, "expected_assists": 0.111, "key_pass": 1.3848, "rating": 6.8425, "minutes": 70.47, "total_pass": 22.6568, "accurate_pass": 19.365, "duels_won": 3.3236, "total_long_balls": 0.3228, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0311, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3083, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5964, "crosses_total": 2.0962, "crosses_accurate": 0.7013, "touches": 37.1634, "possession_lost": 9.226, "dispossessed": 1.1228, "duels_lost": 3.8879, "aerial_lost": 0.4536, "total_contest": 2.3542, "won_contest": 0.8789, "ball_recovery": 2.8682, "challenges_lost": 0.5669, "fouls": 0.3145, "fouls_drawn": 0.8931, "assist_rate": 0.0142, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9013, "tackles_won": 0.3468, "tackles": 1.3902, "clearances": 0.0446, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1619, "big_chances_missed": 0.0206, "xgot": 0.0576, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.8762, "total_progression": 49.9499, "progressive_carries": 2.6739, "shots_off_target": 0.6298, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9682, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0905, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0905, "scorer_weight": 0.1186, "squad_weight_total": 1.4299, "weight_share": 0.083, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goal_rate": 0.1364, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4124, "total_shots": 1.0422, "expected_assists": 0.111, "key_pass": 1.3848, "rating": 6.8425, "minutes": 70.47, "total_pass": 22.6568, "accurate_pass": 19.365, "duels_won": 3.3236, "total_long_balls": 0.3228, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0311, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3083, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5964, "crosses_total": 2.0962, "crosses_accurate": 0.7013, "touches": 37.1634, "possession_lost": 9.226, "dispossessed": 1.1228, "duels_lost": 3.8879, "aerial_lost": 0.4536, "total_contest": 2.3542, "won_contest": 0.8789, "ball_recovery": 2.8682, "challenges_lost": 0.5669, "fouls": 0.3145, "fouls_drawn": 0.8931, "assist_rate": 0.0142, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.9013, "tackles_won": 0.3468, "tackles": 1.3902, "clearances": 0.0446, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1619, "big_chances_missed": 0.0206, "xgot": 0.0576, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.8762, "total_progression": 49.9499, "progressive_carries": 2.6739, "shots_off_target": 0.6298, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9682, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0905, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1051, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1051, "provider_weight": 0.0888, "squad_weight_total": 0.7437, "weight_share": 0.1194, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Gonzalo García": { "player_id": 1402716, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 182, "market_value": 31000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.375, "goal_rate": 0.4134, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0596, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7667, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.4668, "dispossessed": 0.6723, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.2618, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0356, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.224, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3127, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0579, "finishing_factor": 1.058, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6918, "expected_assists": 0.3258, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2043, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4426, "expected_assists": 0.2017, "total_shots": 5, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2697, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "total_shots": 3, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7335, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083731, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4699, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083702, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083649, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1444, "expected_assists": 0.2793, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 3, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083562, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5561, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083422, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 37, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2189, "expected_assists": 0.0533, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1573, "combined_rank_score": 873.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 641.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.75, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1106.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7667, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gonzalo García", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alan Minda", "ranking": 1568 }, { "player_name": "Éric Davis", "ranking": 1569 }, { "player_name": "Javier Boñar", "ranking": 1570 }, { "player_name": "Ken Sema", "ranking": 1571 }, { "player_name": "Julio Báez", "ranking": 1572 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Yilmar Velázquez", "ranking": 1574 }, { "player_name": "Mauricio Vera", "ranking": 1575 }, { "player_name": "Jardel", "ranking": 1576 }, { "player_name": "Kim Dong-wook", "ranking": 1577 }, { "player_name": "Viktor Đukanović", "ranking": 1578 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 35, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 35, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0082, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Fulham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.5, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 3.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 16.7, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 35 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Fulham, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.5, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3717, "goals": 0.3955, "goal_rate": 0.3955, "shots_on_target": 0.8978, "total_shots": 2.2196, "expected_assists": 0.0587, "key_pass": 0.6641, "rating": 6.7667, "minutes": 80.9, "total_pass": 16.7014, "accurate_pass": 12.9648, "duels_won": 3.6877, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.51, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9883, "crosses_total": 0.4958, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.9369, "possession_lost": 8.3979, "dispossessed": 0.6668, "duels_lost": 6.1649, "aerial_lost": 3.0323, "total_contest": 1.3743, "won_contest": 0.5333, "ball_recovery": 1.6033, "challenges_lost": 0.6528, "fouls": 0.972, "fouls_drawn": 0.5249, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2051, "tackles_won": 0.2357, "tackles": 0.3617, "clearances": 0.953, "blocks": 0.1027, "big_chances_created": 0.1672, "big_chances_missed": 0.543, "xgot": 0.2594, "offsides": 0.1208, "ball_carries": 6.3184, "total_progression": 10.3096, "progressive_carries": 1.1427, "shots_off_target": 1.3218 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1505, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-14", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 37.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.3564, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 8.2816, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 6.1698, "accuratePass": 10.4356, "totalShots": 2.061 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.3716941475868225, "model_output": 0.3717, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0727 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.03 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0156 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0117 } ], "others": 0.0276, "total": 0.3717, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.311319 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.104693 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.050311 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.046412 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.034616 } ], "others_margin": 0.077643 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.3955003619194031, "model_output": 0.3955, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0595 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0485 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0198 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0124 } ], "others": 0.0518, "total": 0.3955, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.256241 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.169245 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.076005 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.057109 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.035414 } ], "others_margin": 0.140074 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.89776611328125, "model_output": 0.8978, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1591 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0489 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0512 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0226 } ], "others": 0.0642, "total": 0.8978, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.259514 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.082721 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.062717 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.06166 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.026713 } ], "others_margin": 0.074049 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.219571590423584, "model_output": 2.2196, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5091 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2019 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.049 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0478 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0397 } ], "others": 0.089, "total": 2.2196, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.509141 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.201868 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.049035 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.047807 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.039668 } ], "others_margin": 0.088961 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.058662399649620056, "model_output": 0.0587, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0185 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0058 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0053 } ], "others": -0.0088, "total": 0.0587, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.25333 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.123133 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.089098 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.082706 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.075929 } ], "others_margin": -0.139376 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6641429662704468, "model_output": 0.6641, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2119 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0549 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0321 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0275 } ], "others": -0.124, "total": 0.6641, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.27336 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.063968 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.047229 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.041287 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.035496 } ], "others_margin": -0.17107 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.766650199890137, "model_output": 6.7667, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0531 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0326, "total": 6.7667, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.053086 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.030163 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.013836 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.01336 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012979 } ], "others_margin": -0.032651 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0082, quality 0.725)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3747, "goals": 0.3987, "goal_rate": 0.3987, "shots_on_target": 0.9051, "total_shots": 2.2378, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.6696, "rating": 6.7667, "minutes": 80.9, "total_pass": 16.8384, "accurate_pass": 13.0711, "duels_won": 3.7179, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0538, "crosses_total": 0.4999, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.1742, "possession_lost": 8.4668, "dispossessed": 0.6723, "duels_lost": 6.2155, "aerial_lost": 3.0572, "total_contest": 1.3856, "won_contest": 0.5377, "ball_recovery": 1.6164, "challenges_lost": 0.6582, "fouls": 0.98, "fouls_drawn": 0.5292, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2068, "tackles_won": 0.2376, "tackles": 0.3647, "clearances": 0.9608, "blocks": 0.1035, "big_chances_created": 0.1686, "big_chances_missed": 0.5475, "xgot": 0.2615, "offsides": 0.1218, "ball_carries": 6.3702, "total_progression": 10.3941, "progressive_carries": 1.1521, "shots_off_target": 1.3326 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.0082, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3747, "goals": 0.3992, "goal_rate": 0.3992, "shots_on_target": 0.9002, "total_shots": 2.2428, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.6696, "rating": 6.7667, "minutes": 80.9, "total_pass": 16.8384, "accurate_pass": 13.0711, "duels_won": 3.7179, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0538, "crosses_total": 0.4994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.1742, "possession_lost": 8.4668, "dispossessed": 0.6723, "duels_lost": 6.2155, "aerial_lost": 3.0572, "total_contest": 1.3856, "won_contest": 0.5377, "ball_recovery": 1.6164, "challenges_lost": 0.6582, "fouls": 0.9889, "fouls_drawn": 0.5332, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2046, "tackles_won": 0.235, "tackles": 0.3647, "clearances": 0.9608, "blocks": 0.1035, "big_chances_created": 0.1686, "big_chances_missed": 0.5475, "xgot": 0.2615, "offsides": 0.1205, "ball_carries": 6.3702, "total_progression": 10.3941, "progressive_carries": 1.1521, "shots_off_target": 1.3326 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0108, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8989, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.98, "after": 0.9889 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3747, "goals": 0.3992, "goal_rate": 0.3992, "shots_on_target": 0.9002, "total_shots": 2.2428, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.6696, "rating": 6.7667, "minutes": 80.9, "total_pass": 16.8384, "accurate_pass": 13.0711, "duels_won": 3.7179, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0538, "crosses_total": 0.4994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.1742, "possession_lost": 8.4668, "dispossessed": 0.6723, "duels_lost": 6.2155, "aerial_lost": 3.0572, "total_contest": 1.3856, "won_contest": 0.5377, "ball_recovery": 1.6164, "challenges_lost": 0.6582, "fouls": 0.9889, "fouls_drawn": 0.5332, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2046, "tackles_won": 0.235, "tackles": 0.3647, "clearances": 0.9608, "blocks": 0.1035, "big_chances_created": 0.1686, "big_chances_missed": 0.5475, "xgot": 0.2615, "offsides": 0.1205, "ball_carries": 6.3702, "total_progression": 10.3941, "progressive_carries": 1.1521, "shots_off_target": 1.3326 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.388, "goals": 0.4134, "goal_rate": 0.4134, "shots_on_target": 0.9322, "total_shots": 2.3226, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "key_pass": 0.6696, "rating": 6.7667, "minutes": 80.9, "total_pass": 16.8384, "accurate_pass": 13.0711, "duels_won": 3.7179, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0538, "crosses_total": 0.4994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.1742, "possession_lost": 8.4668, "dispossessed": 0.6723, "duels_lost": 6.2155, "aerial_lost": 3.0572, "total_contest": 1.3856, "won_contest": 0.5377, "ball_recovery": 1.6164, "challenges_lost": 0.6582, "fouls": 0.9889, "fouls_drawn": 0.5332, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2046, "tackles_won": 0.235, "tackles": 0.3647, "clearances": 0.9608, "blocks": 0.1035, "big_chances_created": 0.1686, "big_chances_missed": 0.567, "xgot": 0.2708, "offsides": 0.1205, "ball_carries": 6.3702, "total_progression": 10.3941, "progressive_carries": 1.1521, "shots_off_target": 1.38, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0356, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.224, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.224, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0356, "skill_edge": 0.0482, "height_edge": -0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.7249, "defender_skill": 0.6178, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Leif Davis", "market_value": 21000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7022 }, { "player": "Issa Diop", "market_value": 8199999, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5334 } ], "xg_override": 0.388 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.2428, "after": 2.3226 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3326, "after": 1.38 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.9002, "after": 0.9322 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.5475, "after": 0.567 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3992, "after": 0.4134 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3747, "after": 0.388 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2615, "after": 0.2708 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3470, xG scale 0.9666, xA scale 1.0085, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.375, "goal_rate": 0.4134, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9322, "total_shots": 2.3226, "expected_assists": 0.0596, "key_pass": 0.6696, "rating": 6.7667, "minutes": 80.9, "total_pass": 16.8384, "accurate_pass": 13.0711, "duels_won": 3.7179, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0538, "crosses_total": 0.4994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.1742, "possession_lost": 8.4668, "dispossessed": 0.6723, "duels_lost": 6.2155, "aerial_lost": 3.0572, "total_contest": 1.3856, "won_contest": 0.5377, "ball_recovery": 1.6164, "challenges_lost": 0.6582, "fouls": 0.9889, "fouls_drawn": 0.5332, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2046, "tackles_won": 0.235, "tackles": 0.3647, "clearances": 0.9608, "blocks": 0.1035, "big_chances_created": 0.1686, "big_chances_missed": 0.567, "xgot": 0.2618, "offsides": 0.1205, "ball_carries": 6.3702, "total_progression": 10.3941, "progressive_carries": 1.1521, "shots_off_target": 1.38, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0356, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.224, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.058, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.347, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8391, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9666, "xa_scale": 1.0085, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.388, "after": 0.375 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.375, "goal_rate": 0.4134, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9322, "total_shots": 2.3226, "expected_assists": 0.0596, "key_pass": 0.6696, "rating": 6.7667, "minutes": 80.9, "total_pass": 16.8384, "accurate_pass": 13.0711, "duels_won": 3.7179, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0538, "crosses_total": 0.4994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.1742, "possession_lost": 8.4668, "dispossessed": 0.6723, "duels_lost": 6.2155, "aerial_lost": 3.0572, "total_contest": 1.3856, "won_contest": 0.5377, "ball_recovery": 1.6164, "challenges_lost": 0.6582, "fouls": 0.9889, "fouls_drawn": 0.5332, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2046, "tackles_won": 0.235, "tackles": 0.3647, "clearances": 0.9608, "blocks": 0.1035, "big_chances_created": 0.1686, "big_chances_missed": 0.567, "xgot": 0.2618, "offsides": 0.1205, "ball_carries": 6.3702, "total_progression": 10.3941, "progressive_carries": 1.1521, "shots_off_target": 1.38, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0356, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.224, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.058, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1573, "fifa_rank": 1106.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.375, "goal_rate": 0.4134, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9322, "total_shots": 2.3226, "expected_assists": 0.0596, "key_pass": 0.6696, "rating": 6.7667, "minutes": 80.9, "total_pass": 16.8384, "accurate_pass": 13.0711, "duels_won": 3.7179, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0538, "crosses_total": 0.4994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.1742, "possession_lost": 8.4668, "dispossessed": 0.6723, "duels_lost": 6.2155, "aerial_lost": 3.0572, "total_contest": 1.3856, "won_contest": 0.5377, "ball_recovery": 1.6164, "challenges_lost": 0.6582, "fouls": 0.9889, "fouls_drawn": 0.5332, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2046, "tackles_won": 0.235, "tackles": 0.3647, "clearances": 0.9608, "blocks": 0.1035, "big_chances_created": 0.1686, "big_chances_missed": 0.567, "xgot": 0.2618, "offsides": 0.1205, "ball_carries": 6.3702, "total_progression": 10.3941, "progressive_carries": 1.1521, "shots_off_target": 1.38, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0356, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.224, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3127, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.058, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3127, "scorer_weight": 0.3968, "squad_weight_total": 1.4299, "weight_share": 0.2775, "finishing_factor": 1.058, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.375, "goal_rate": 0.4134, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9322, "total_shots": 2.3226, "expected_assists": 0.0596, "key_pass": 0.6696, "rating": 6.7667, "minutes": 80.9, "total_pass": 16.8384, "accurate_pass": 13.0711, "duels_won": 3.7179, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0538, "crosses_total": 0.4994, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.1742, "possession_lost": 8.4668, "dispossessed": 0.6723, "duels_lost": 6.2155, "aerial_lost": 3.0572, "total_contest": 1.3856, "won_contest": 0.5377, "ball_recovery": 1.6164, "challenges_lost": 0.6582, "fouls": 0.9889, "fouls_drawn": 0.5332, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2046, "tackles_won": 0.235, "tackles": 0.3647, "clearances": 0.9608, "blocks": 0.1035, "big_chances_created": 0.1686, "big_chances_missed": 0.567, "xgot": 0.2618, "offsides": 0.1205, "ball_carries": 6.3702, "total_progression": 10.3941, "progressive_carries": 1.1521, "shots_off_target": 1.38, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0356, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.224, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3127, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0579, "finishing_factor": 1.058, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0579, "provider_weight": 0.0477, "squad_weight_total": 0.7437, "weight_share": 0.0641, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Alex Iwobi": { "player_id": 352770, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 183, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1183, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1977, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 7.1288, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 48, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 32, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 68, "possession_lost": 11.5664, "dispossessed": 0.6519, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0203, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0797, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 23, "total_progression": 88, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9858, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.19, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1116, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1794, "finishing_factor": 1.2135, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.193, "expected_assists": 0.4101, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1477, "expected_assists": 0.1087, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.036, "expected_assists": 0.2573, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 70, "accurate_pass": 64, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0147, "expected_assists": 0.4028, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 56, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 92, "accurate_pass": 83, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2582, "expected_assists": 0.1714, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2356, "expected_assists": 0.1111, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 47, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025031, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 43, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0329, "expected_assists": 0.0674, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024000, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0353, "expected_assists": 0.3242, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 56, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024016, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0768, "expected_assists": 0.2568, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 76, "accurate_pass": 60, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1041, "combined_rank_score": 471.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 277.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.069, "sofascore_appearances": 29.0, "fifa_rank": 665.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1288, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alex Iwobi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Anthony Elanga", "ranking": 1036 }, { "player_name": "Sander Berge", "ranking": 1037 }, { "player_name": "Rustam Nartazhiev", "ranking": 1038 }, { "player_name": "Christian Bravo", "ranking": 1039 }, { "player_name": "Julián Quiñones", "ranking": 1040 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lee Ji-Hoon", "ranking": 1042 }, { "player_name": "Narimonjon Akhmadjonov", "ranking": 1043 }, { "player_name": "Stevan Jovetić", "ranking": 1044 }, { "player_name": "Ricardo Rodríguez", "ranking": 1045 }, { "player_name": "Alan Cariús", "ranking": 1046 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 34, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0052, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Fulham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 34 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Fulham, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1236, "goals": 0.1624, "goal_rate": 0.1624, "shots_on_target": 0.518, "total_shots": 1.3553, "expected_assists": 0.195, "key_pass": 2.0312, "rating": 7.1288, "minutes": 80.79, "total_pass": 54.3486, "accurate_pass": 48.2314, "duels_won": 1.9798, "total_long_balls": 3.8955, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0405, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.7532, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.2566, "crosses_total": 3.5023, "crosses_accurate": 1.4261, "touches": 67.2918, "possession_lost": 11.5066, "dispossessed": 0.6485, "duels_lost": 2.1739, "aerial_lost": 0.1756, "total_contest": 1.2487, "won_contest": 0.5734, "ball_recovery": 4.3101, "challenges_lost": 0.2971, "fouls": 0.3774, "fouls_drawn": 0.3547, "assists": 0.0204, "assist_rate": 0.0204, "interceptions": 0.4877, "tackles_won": 0.7621, "tackles": 0.9436, "clearances": 0.4789, "blocks": 0.0674, "big_chances_created": 0.4667, "big_chances_missed": 0.1617, "xgot": 0.0833, "offsides": 0.0019, "ball_carries": 22.8489, "total_progression": 87.9675, "progressive_carries": 2.1822, "shots_off_target": 0.8373 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1506, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.128, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1088, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0925, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 43.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1009, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 31.7532, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 27.2566, "accuratePass": 48.2313, "totalShots": 1.6495 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.12357763946056366, "model_output": 0.1236, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0631 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0531 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0071 } ], "others": -0.0337, "total": 0.1236, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.275634 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.226216 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.126813 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.113422 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.043897 } ], "others_margin": -0.241494 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.16243548691272736, "model_output": 0.1624, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.063 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0481 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.034 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.008 } ], "others": 0.0015, "total": 0.1624, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.269289 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.198669 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.168926 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.088738 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.048224 } ], "others_margin": 0.008659 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5180140137672424, "model_output": 0.518, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1535 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0781 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.059 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0521 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0264 } ], "others": -0.0097, "total": 0.518, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.251354 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.120029 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.10128 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.098952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.051328 } ], "others_margin": -0.018379 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.355337142944336, "model_output": 1.3553, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3997 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.1526 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0726 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.068 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0565 } ], "others": -0.3316, "total": 1.3553, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.399746 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.15262 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.072614 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.068041 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.056491 } ], "others_margin": -0.33156 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.1950165331363678, "model_output": 0.195, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0139 } ], "others": 0.0585, "total": 0.195, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.197722 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.185684 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.145432 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.115704 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.10718 } ], "others_margin": 0.358061 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 2.0312280654907227, "model_output": 2.0312, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1947 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1241 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.1122 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.102 } ], "others": 0.5684, "total": 2.0312, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.321711 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.190154 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.104686 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.086057 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.072268 } ], "others_margin": 0.328324 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.128760814666748, "model_output": 7.1288, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0715 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0644 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0626 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0537 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0524 } ], "others": 0.062, "total": 7.1288, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.071528 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.06436 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.062628 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.053691 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05244 } ], "others_margin": 0.061953 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 34, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0052, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1242, "goals": 0.1633, "goal_rate": 0.1633, "shots_on_target": 0.5207, "total_shots": 1.3624, "expected_assists": 0.196, "key_pass": 2.0418, "rating": 7.1288, "minutes": 80.79, "total_pass": 54.6312, "accurate_pass": 48.4822, "duels_won": 1.9901, "total_long_balls": 3.9158, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0563, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.9183, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.3983, "crosses_total": 3.5205, "crosses_accurate": 1.4335, "touches": 67.6417, "possession_lost": 11.5664, "dispossessed": 0.6519, "duels_lost": 2.1852, "aerial_lost": 0.1765, "total_contest": 1.2552, "won_contest": 0.5764, "ball_recovery": 4.3325, "challenges_lost": 0.2986, "fouls": 0.3794, "fouls_drawn": 0.3565, "assists": 0.0205, "assist_rate": 0.0205, "interceptions": 0.4902, "tackles_won": 0.7661, "tackles": 0.9485, "clearances": 0.4814, "blocks": 0.0678, "big_chances_created": 0.4691, "big_chances_missed": 0.1625, "xgot": 0.0837, "offsides": 0.0019, "ball_carries": 22.9677, "total_progression": 88.4249, "progressive_carries": 2.1935, "shots_off_target": 0.8417 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0052, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0111)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1242, "goals": 0.1615, "goal_rate": 0.1615, "shots_on_target": 0.5149, "total_shots": 1.3523, "expected_assists": 0.196, "key_pass": 2.0418, "rating": 7.1288, "minutes": 80.79, "total_pass": 54.6312, "accurate_pass": 48.4822, "duels_won": 1.9901, "total_long_balls": 3.9158, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0563, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.9183, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.3983, "crosses_total": 3.5063, "crosses_accurate": 1.4335, "touches": 67.6417, "possession_lost": 11.5664, "dispossessed": 0.6519, "duels_lost": 2.1852, "aerial_lost": 0.1765, "total_contest": 1.2552, "won_contest": 0.5764, "ball_recovery": 4.3325, "challenges_lost": 0.2986, "fouls": 0.3802, "fouls_drawn": 0.3575, "assists": 0.0203, "assist_rate": 0.0203, "interceptions": 0.4997, "tackles_won": 0.7676, "tackles": 0.9485, "clearances": 0.4814, "blocks": 0.0678, "big_chances_created": 0.4691, "big_chances_missed": 0.1625, "xgot": 0.0837, "offsides": 0.0019, "ball_carries": 22.9677, "total_progression": 88.4249, "progressive_carries": 2.1935, "shots_off_target": 0.8417 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0111, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8977, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.5205, "after": 3.5063 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3624, "after": 1.3523 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.4902, "after": 0.4997 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5207, "after": 0.5149 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1242, "goals": 0.1615, "goal_rate": 0.1615, "shots_on_target": 0.5149, "total_shots": 1.3566, "expected_assists": 0.196, "key_pass": 2.0418, "rating": 7.1288, "minutes": 80.79, "total_pass": 54.6312, "accurate_pass": 48.4822, "duels_won": 1.9901, "total_long_balls": 3.9158, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0563, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.9183, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.3983, "crosses_total": 3.5063, "crosses_accurate": 1.4335, "touches": 67.6417, "possession_lost": 11.5664, "dispossessed": 0.6519, "duels_lost": 2.1852, "aerial_lost": 0.1765, "total_contest": 1.2552, "won_contest": 0.5764, "ball_recovery": 4.3325, "challenges_lost": 0.2986, "fouls": 0.3802, "fouls_drawn": 0.3575, "assists": 0.0203, "assist_rate": 0.0203, "interceptions": 0.4997, "tackles_won": 0.7676, "tackles": 0.9485, "clearances": 0.4814, "blocks": 0.0678, "big_chances_created": 0.4691, "big_chances_missed": 0.1625, "xgot": 0.0837, "offsides": 0.0019, "ball_carries": 22.9677, "total_progression": 88.4249, "progressive_carries": 2.1935, "shots_off_target": 0.8417 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1224, "goals": 0.1592, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "shots_on_target": 0.5076, "total_shots": 1.3373, "expected_assists": 0.196, "key_pass": 2.0418, "rating": 7.1288, "minutes": 80.79, "total_pass": 54.6312, "accurate_pass": 48.4822, "duels_won": 1.9901, "total_long_balls": 3.9158, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0563, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.9183, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.3983, "crosses_total": 3.5063, "crosses_accurate": 1.4335, "touches": 67.6417, "possession_lost": 11.5664, "dispossessed": 0.6519, "duels_lost": 2.1852, "aerial_lost": 0.1765, "total_contest": 1.2552, "won_contest": 0.5764, "ball_recovery": 4.3325, "challenges_lost": 0.2986, "fouls": 0.3802, "fouls_drawn": 0.3575, "assists": 0.0203, "assist_rate": 0.0203, "interceptions": 0.4997, "tackles_won": 0.7676, "tackles": 0.9485, "clearances": 0.4814, "blocks": 0.0678, "big_chances_created": 0.4691, "big_chances_missed": 0.1602, "xgot": 0.0825, "offsides": 0.0019, "ball_carries": 22.9677, "total_progression": 88.4249, "progressive_carries": 2.1935, "shots_off_target": 0.8297, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9858, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.19, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.19, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9858, "skill_edge": 0.0104, "height_edge": -0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.6408, "defender_skill": 0.6178, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Leif Davis", "market_value": 21000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7022 }, { "player": "Issa Diop", "market_value": 8199999, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5334 } ], "xg_override": 0.1224 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3566, "after": 1.3373 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.8417, "after": 0.8297 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5149, "after": 0.5076 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3470, xG scale 0.9666, xA scale 1.0085, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1183, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5076, "total_shots": 1.3373, "expected_assists": 0.1977, "key_pass": 2.0418, "rating": 7.1288, "minutes": 80.79, "total_pass": 54.6312, "accurate_pass": 48.4822, "duels_won": 1.9901, "total_long_balls": 3.9158, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0563, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.9183, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.3983, "crosses_total": 3.5063, "crosses_accurate": 1.4335, "touches": 67.6417, "possession_lost": 11.5664, "dispossessed": 0.6519, "duels_lost": 2.1852, "aerial_lost": 0.1765, "total_contest": 1.2552, "won_contest": 0.5764, "ball_recovery": 4.3325, "challenges_lost": 0.2986, "fouls": 0.3802, "fouls_drawn": 0.3575, "assist_rate": 0.0203, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4997, "tackles_won": 0.7676, "tackles": 0.9485, "clearances": 0.4814, "blocks": 0.0678, "big_chances_created": 0.4691, "big_chances_missed": 0.1602, "xgot": 0.0797, "offsides": 0.0019, "ball_carries": 22.9677, "total_progression": 88.4249, "progressive_carries": 2.1935, "shots_off_target": 0.8297, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9858, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.19, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2135, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.347, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8391, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9666, "xa_scale": 1.0085, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1183, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5076, "total_shots": 1.3373, "expected_assists": 0.1977, "key_pass": 2.0418, "rating": 7.1288, "minutes": 80.79, "total_pass": 54.6312, "accurate_pass": 48.4822, "duels_won": 1.9901, "total_long_balls": 3.9158, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0563, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.9183, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.3983, "crosses_total": 3.5063, "crosses_accurate": 1.4335, "touches": 67.6417, "possession_lost": 11.5664, "dispossessed": 0.6519, "duels_lost": 2.1852, "aerial_lost": 0.1765, "total_contest": 1.2552, "won_contest": 0.5764, "ball_recovery": 4.3325, "challenges_lost": 0.2986, "fouls": 0.3802, "fouls_drawn": 0.3575, "assist_rate": 0.0203, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4997, "tackles_won": 0.7676, "tackles": 0.9485, "clearances": 0.4814, "blocks": 0.0678, "big_chances_created": 0.4691, "big_chances_missed": 0.1602, "xgot": 0.0797, "offsides": 0.0019, "ball_carries": 22.9677, "total_progression": 88.4249, "progressive_carries": 2.1935, "shots_off_target": 0.8297, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9858, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.19, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2135, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1041, "fifa_rank": 665.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1183, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5076, "total_shots": 1.3373, "expected_assists": 0.1977, "key_pass": 2.0418, "rating": 7.1288, "minutes": 80.79, "total_pass": 54.6312, "accurate_pass": 48.4822, "duels_won": 1.9901, "total_long_balls": 3.9158, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0563, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.9183, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.3983, "crosses_total": 3.5063, "crosses_accurate": 1.4335, "touches": 67.6417, "possession_lost": 11.5664, "dispossessed": 0.6519, "duels_lost": 2.1852, "aerial_lost": 0.1765, "total_contest": 1.2552, "won_contest": 0.5764, "ball_recovery": 4.3325, "challenges_lost": 0.2986, "fouls": 0.3802, "fouls_drawn": 0.3575, "assist_rate": 0.0203, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4997, "tackles_won": 0.7676, "tackles": 0.9485, "clearances": 0.4814, "blocks": 0.0678, "big_chances_created": 0.4691, "big_chances_missed": 0.1602, "xgot": 0.0797, "offsides": 0.0019, "ball_carries": 22.9677, "total_progression": 88.4249, "progressive_carries": 2.1935, "shots_off_target": 0.8297, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9858, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.19, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1116, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2135, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1116, "scorer_weight": 0.1436, "squad_weight_total": 1.4299, "weight_share": 0.1004, "finishing_factor": 1.2135, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1183, "goal_rate": 0.1592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5076, "total_shots": 1.3373, "expected_assists": 0.1977, "key_pass": 2.0418, "rating": 7.1288, "minutes": 80.79, "total_pass": 54.6312, "accurate_pass": 48.4822, "duels_won": 1.9901, "total_long_balls": 3.9158, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0563, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.9183, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.3983, "crosses_total": 3.5063, "crosses_accurate": 1.4335, "touches": 67.6417, "possession_lost": 11.5664, "dispossessed": 0.6519, "duels_lost": 2.1852, "aerial_lost": 0.1765, "total_contest": 1.2552, "won_contest": 0.5764, "ball_recovery": 4.3325, "challenges_lost": 0.2986, "fouls": 0.3802, "fouls_drawn": 0.3575, "assist_rate": 0.0203, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4997, "tackles_won": 0.7676, "tackles": 0.9485, "clearances": 0.4814, "blocks": 0.0678, "big_chances_created": 0.4691, "big_chances_missed": 0.1602, "xgot": 0.0797, "offsides": 0.0019, "ball_carries": 22.9677, "total_progression": 88.4249, "progressive_carries": 2.1935, "shots_off_target": 0.8297, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9858, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.19, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "opponent_faced": "Leif Davis, Issa Diop", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1116, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1794, "finishing_factor": 1.2135, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1794, "provider_weight": 0.1582, "squad_weight_total": 0.7437, "weight_share": 0.2127, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Benjamin Lecomte": { "player_id": 123207, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 186, "market_value": 825000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3761, "combined_rank_score": 1750.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3261.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Benjamin Lecomte", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Thiago Fernández", "ranking": 3756 }, { "player_name": "Jarne Steuckers", "ranking": 3757 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Gomes", "ranking": 3758 }, { "player_name": "Myrto Uzuni", "ranking": 3759 }, { "player_name": "Joel Ordoñez", "ranking": 3760 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matte Smets", "ranking": 3762 }, { "player_name": "Lars Unnerstall", "ranking": 3763 }, { "player_name": "Amir Murillo", "ranking": 3764 }, { "player_name": "Tatsuhiro Sakamoto", "ranking": 3765 }, { "player_name": "Steven Berghuis", "ranking": 3766 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.10873737216187492, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4374, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Fulham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€825,000) scaled to 4.4 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position G (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0, "accurate_pass": 20.0, "total_long_balls": 8.0, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0, "touches": 32.0, "clearances": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 1.2, "high_claims": 0.5, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 0.6, "sweeper_actions": 1.2, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7, "saves_inside_box": 1.2, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0.2, "total_contest": 0.4, "won_contest": 0.2, "fouls": 0.2, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 825000, "quality_factor": 0.4374 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.0488, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 4, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "saves": 0.1415, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 1.3177, "accurate_pass": 0.976, "total_long_balls": 0.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1952, "touches": 1.5617, "clearances": 0.0439, "ball_recovery": 0.0586, "high_claims": 0.0244, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0.0293, "sweeper_actions": 0.0586, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0586, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0.0195, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0195, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3761, "fifa_rank": 3261.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } } ] }, "Antonee Robinson": { "player_id": 803174, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 33, "height": 183, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7556, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 4.3216, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.236, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.49, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0874, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0538, "expected_assists": 0.0521, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0791, "expected_assists": 0.1044, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 43, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.024, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 38, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.133, "expected_assists": 0.0405, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.021, "expected_assists": 0.0979, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7884, "expected_assists": 0.1148, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 56, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0246, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 40, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023931, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0158, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 876, "combined_rank_score": 413.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 157.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 670.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7556, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Antonee Robinson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Sardor Sobirkhuzhaev", "ranking": 871 }, { "player_name": "Sung-joon Kim", "ranking": 872 }, { "player_name": "Derlan", "ranking": 873 }, { "player_name": "Vladimír Coufal", "ranking": 874 }, { "player_name": "Manuel Neuer", "ranking": 875 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Amadou Onana", "ranking": 877 }, { "player_name": "Kim Hyeong-jin", "ranking": 878 }, { "player_name": "Sancet", "ranking": 879 }, { "player_name": "Jaloliddin Jumaboyev", "ranking": 880 }, { "player_name": "Vivian", "ranking": 881 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.769, "history_matches": 27, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 27, "data_confidence": 0.769, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.48735814265611, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.236, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0077, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Fulham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1267 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (27 historical appearances) to 14.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.24); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3994, "tackles": 0.8022, "tackles_won": 0.526, "clearances": 0.8484, "aerial_won": 0.2476, "total_shots": 0.2041, "rating": 6.7556, "minutes": 15.28, "total_pass": 9.9334, "accurate_pass": 8.317, "duels_won": 0.1948, "total_long_balls": 1.5101, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8052, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6399, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1754, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2936, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1416, "crosses_total": 1.9816, "crosses_accurate": 0.3064, "touches": 16.0193, "possession_lost": 4.5232, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4763, "aerial_lost": 0.1408, "total_contest": 0.3896, "won_contest": 0.1948, "ball_recovery": 0.9341, "challenges_lost": 0.1408, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.9621, "total_progression": 22.7345, "progressive_carries": 0.5784, "key_pass": 0.3699, "shots_off_target": 0.2041 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1519, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1291, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1097, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0933, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0793, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0674, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0573, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0487, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0414, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0352, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 2.4966, "aerialWon": 0.7536, "totalClearance_p90": 2.6294, "totalTackle": 2.4807, "totalPass": 41.1566 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3994479179382324, "model_output": 0.3994, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4801 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0265 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0415, "total": 0.3994, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.821028 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.067822 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.032815 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.029431 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.025728 } ], "others_margin": -0.09844 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.8022270798683167, "model_output": 0.8022, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7695 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0343 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0346 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0249 } ], "others": 0.0576, "total": 0.8022, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.803125 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.053518 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.051152 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.037354 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.034032 } ], "others_margin": 0.074616 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.525957465171814, "model_output": 0.526, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4697 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0297 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0273 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0158 } ], "others": 0.0443, "total": 0.526, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.797932 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.074413 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.063712 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.053404 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.033275 } ], "others_margin": 0.088006 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.8483670353889465, "model_output": 0.8484, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1538 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1611 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0733 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0597 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0414 } ], "others": -0.1137, "total": 0.8484, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.97823 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.132596 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.06666 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.057794 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.042125 } ], "others_margin": -0.12582 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.24758251011371613, "model_output": 0.2476, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8466 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1295 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0323 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0268 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0874, "total": 0.2476, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.948211 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.27688 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.082806 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.074456 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.034742 } ], "others_margin": -0.30247 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.20408524572849274, "model_output": 0.2041, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2703 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0235 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0089 } ], "others": -0.0396, "total": 0.2041, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.270285 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.023508 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.019644 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.009065 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.008868 } ], "others_margin": -0.039717 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.755609512329102, "model_output": 6.7556, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0289 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0205 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0542, "total": 6.7556, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.028856 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.02073 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.020471 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013453 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.00951 } ], "others_margin": -0.054179 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0077, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4025, "tackles": 0.8084, "tackles_won": 0.53, "clearances": 0.8549, "aerial_won": 0.2495, "total_shots": 0.2057, "rating": 6.7556, "minutes": 15.28, "total_pass": 10.0099, "accurate_pass": 8.381, "duels_won": 0.1963, "total_long_balls": 1.5217, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8114, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6679, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1999, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3421, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1812, "crosses_total": 1.9969, "crosses_accurate": 0.3088, "touches": 16.1426, "possession_lost": 4.558, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.48, "aerial_lost": 0.1419, "total_contest": 0.3926, "won_contest": 0.1963, "ball_recovery": 0.9413, "challenges_lost": 0.1419, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.9926, "total_progression": 22.9096, "progressive_carries": 0.5829, "key_pass": 0.3727, "shots_off_target": 0.2057 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0077, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0129)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3985, "tackles": 0.8084, "tackles_won": 0.5289, "clearances": 0.8549, "aerial_won": 0.2495, "total_shots": 0.2042, "rating": 6.7556, "minutes": 15.28, "total_pass": 10.0099, "accurate_pass": 8.381, "duels_won": 0.1963, "total_long_balls": 1.5217, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8114, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6679, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1999, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3421, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1812, "crosses_total": 1.9793, "crosses_accurate": 0.3088, "touches": 16.1426, "possession_lost": 4.558, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.48, "aerial_lost": 0.1419, "total_contest": 0.3926, "won_contest": 0.1963, "ball_recovery": 0.9413, "challenges_lost": 0.1419, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0011, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.9926, "total_progression": 22.9096, "progressive_carries": 0.5829, "key_pass": 0.3727, "shots_off_target": 0.2057 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0129, "history_matches": 27, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1698, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.9969, "after": 1.9793 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.3 to 14.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.24)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3778, "tackles": 0.7665, "tackles_won": 0.5015, "clearances": 0.8106, "aerial_won": 0.2366, "total_shots": 0.195, "rating": 6.7556, "minutes": 14.49, "total_pass": 9.4906, "accurate_pass": 7.9462, "duels_won": 0.1861, "total_long_balls": 1.4428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7693, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4776, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0339, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0131, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9124, "crosses_total": 1.8766, "crosses_accurate": 0.2928, "touches": 15.3052, "possession_lost": 4.3216, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4551, "aerial_lost": 0.1419, "total_contest": 0.3722, "won_contest": 0.1861, "ball_recovery": 0.8925, "challenges_lost": 0.1419, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.001, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7855, "total_progression": 21.7212, "progressive_carries": 0.5527, "key_pass": 0.3534, "shots_off_target": 0.195, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.236, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.49 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.49, "projection_minutes": 15.28, "minutes_scale": 0.9481, "appearance_probability": 0.236 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3778, "tackles": 0.7665, "tackles_won": 0.5015, "clearances": 0.8106, "aerial_won": 0.2366, "total_shots": 0.195, "rating": 6.7556, "minutes": 14.49, "total_pass": 9.4906, "accurate_pass": 7.9462, "duels_won": 0.1861, "total_long_balls": 1.4428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7693, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4776, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0339, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0131, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9124, "crosses_total": 1.8766, "crosses_accurate": 0.2928, "touches": 15.3052, "possession_lost": 4.3216, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4551, "aerial_lost": 0.1419, "total_contest": 0.3722, "won_contest": 0.1861, "ball_recovery": 0.8925, "challenges_lost": 0.1419, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.001, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7855, "total_progression": 21.7212, "progressive_carries": 0.5527, "key_pass": 0.3534, "shots_off_target": 0.195, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.236, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3778, "tackles": 0.7665, "tackles_won": 0.5015, "clearances": 0.8106, "aerial_won": 0.2366, "total_shots": 0.195, "rating": 6.7556, "minutes": 14.49, "total_pass": 9.4906, "accurate_pass": 7.9462, "duels_won": 0.1861, "total_long_balls": 1.4428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7693, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4776, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0339, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0131, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9124, "crosses_total": 1.8766, "crosses_accurate": 0.2928, "touches": 15.3052, "possession_lost": 4.3216, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4551, "aerial_lost": 0.1419, "total_contest": 0.3722, "won_contest": 0.1861, "ball_recovery": 0.8925, "challenges_lost": 0.1419, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.001, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7855, "total_progression": 21.7212, "progressive_carries": 0.5527, "key_pass": 0.3534, "shots_off_target": 0.195, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.236, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.49, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.236, "projected_substitutes": 4, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3778, "tackles": 0.7665, "tackles_won": 0.5015, "clearances": 0.8106, "aerial_won": 0.2366, "total_shots": 0.195, "rating": 6.7556, "minutes": 14.49, "total_pass": 9.4906, "accurate_pass": 7.9462, "duels_won": 0.1861, "total_long_balls": 1.4428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7693, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4776, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0339, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0131, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9124, "crosses_total": 1.8766, "crosses_accurate": 0.2928, "touches": 15.3052, "possession_lost": 4.3216, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4551, "aerial_lost": 0.1419, "total_contest": 0.3722, "won_contest": 0.1861, "ball_recovery": 0.8925, "challenges_lost": 0.1419, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.001, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7855, "total_progression": 21.7212, "progressive_carries": 0.5527, "key_pass": 0.3534, "shots_off_target": 0.195, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.236, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.49, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 876, "fifa_rank": 670.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } } ] }, "Joachim Andersen": { "player_id": 362682, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 190, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7838, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 49, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 68, "possession_lost": 8.2254, "dispossessed": 0.1471, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0145, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0156, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.233, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.38, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0649, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 112, "accurate_pass": 101, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 88, "accurate_pass": 77, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 52, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0514, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023931, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 55, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 43, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025031, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0632, "expected_assists": 0.007, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 46, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024000, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0588, "expected_assists": 0.2216, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 56, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024016, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 65, "clearances": 10, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023995, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 70, "accurate_pass": 55, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 11, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1034, "combined_rank_score": 462.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 68.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.6, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 856.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7838, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Joachim Andersen", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jonas Urbig", "ranking": 1029 }, { "player_name": "James Donachie", "ranking": 1030 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Campos", "ranking": 1031 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Romero", "ranking": 1032 }, { "player_name": "Shota Gvazava", "ranking": 1033 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alisson", "ranking": 1035 }, { "player_name": "Anthony Elanga", "ranking": 1036 }, { "player_name": "Sander Berge", "ranking": 1037 }, { "player_name": "Rustam Nartazhiev", "ranking": 1038 }, { "player_name": "Christian Bravo", "ranking": 1039 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 36, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.377468600761329, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.233, "market_value_adjustment": 1.005, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Fulham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (36 historical appearances) to 14.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.23); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5393, "tackles": 0.5421, "tackles_won": 0.3326, "clearances": 1.9651, "aerial_won": 1.009, "total_shots": 0.2284, "rating": 6.7838, "minutes": 15.33, "total_pass": 60.2051, "accurate_pass": 52.171, "duels_won": 4.1414, "total_long_balls": 8.2139, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8068, "total_own_half_passes": 36.4513, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.5305, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7538, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.6405, "crosses_total": 0.2127, "crosses_accurate": 0.0442, "touches": 71.7372, "possession_lost": 8.7267, "dispossessed": 0.1464, "duels_lost": 2.1007, "aerial_lost": 0.9797, "total_contest": 0.0534, "won_contest": 0.032, "ball_recovery": 2.9062, "challenges_lost": 0.1633, "fouls": 0.7899, "fouls_drawn": 0.4518, "blocks": 0.4119, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0155, "assist_rate": 0.0155, "expected_goals": 0.0237, "expected_assists": 0.0325, "shots_on_target": 0.074, "big_chances_created": 0.0204, "xgot": 0.0165, "ball_carries": 19.3554, "total_progression": 67.0704, "progressive_carries": 0.886, "key_pass": 0.4778, "shots_off_target": 0.1544 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 52.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 5.4, "aerialWon": 2.5324, "totalClearance_p90": 10.2193, "totalTackle": 1.1287, "totalPass": 60.2051 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.539335310459137, "model_output": 0.5393, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4439 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0359 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0276 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0217 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0173 } ], "others": 0.0234, "total": 0.5393, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.729427 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.083336 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.059703 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.044583 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.034054 } ], "others_margin": 0.044332 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5421184301376343, "model_output": 0.5421, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7127 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0539, "total": 0.5421, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.716024 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.04352 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.033974 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.03357 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.022547 } ], "others_margin": -0.094725 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.33264318108558655, "model_output": 0.3326, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4029 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0117 } ], "others": -0.0573, "total": 0.3326, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.637806 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.046806 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.040323 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.030273 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.029658 } ], "others_margin": -0.158405 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.965095043182373, "model_output": 1.9651, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1412 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3407 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1762 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0954 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0803 } ], "others": 0.1531, "total": 1.9651, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.968618 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.231141 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.101408 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.053643 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.045322 } ], "others_margin": 0.081148 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.0089784860610962, "model_output": 1.009, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8095 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2219 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0646 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0649 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0426 } ], "others": 0.0425, "total": 1.009, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.881162 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.327506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.078138 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.072793 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.04508 } ], "others_margin": 0.04303 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.22838672995567322, "model_output": 0.2284, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.227 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0369 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0167 } ], "others": -0.0052, "total": 0.2284, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.226967 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.036909 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.026722 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.016978 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.016741 } ], "others_margin": -0.005354 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.783843517303467, "model_output": 6.7838, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0557 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.013 } ], "others": -0.0045, "total": 6.7838, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.055692 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.01662 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.015983 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.013277 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.013041 } ], "others_margin": -0.00452 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0050, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.542, "tackles": 0.5448, "tackles_won": 0.3343, "clearances": 1.9749, "aerial_won": 1.014, "total_shots": 0.2296, "rating": 6.7838, "minutes": 15.33, "total_pass": 60.5061, "accurate_pass": 52.4319, "duels_won": 4.1621, "total_long_balls": 8.255, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8258, "total_own_half_passes": 36.6336, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.7032, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.7287, "crosses_total": 0.2138, "crosses_accurate": 0.0444, "touches": 72.0959, "possession_lost": 8.7703, "dispossessed": 0.1471, "duels_lost": 2.1112, "aerial_lost": 0.9846, "total_contest": 0.0537, "won_contest": 0.0322, "ball_recovery": 2.9207, "challenges_lost": 0.1641, "fouls": 0.7938, "fouls_drawn": 0.4541, "blocks": 0.414, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0156, "assist_rate": 0.0156, "expected_goals": 0.0238, "expected_assists": 0.0327, "shots_on_target": 0.0744, "big_chances_created": 0.0205, "xgot": 0.0166, "ball_carries": 19.4522, "total_progression": 67.4058, "progressive_carries": 0.8904, "key_pass": 0.4802, "shots_off_target": 0.1552 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.005, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0053)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.54, "tackles": 0.5448, "tackles_won": 0.3325, "clearances": 1.9749, "aerial_won": 1.014, "total_shots": 0.2284, "rating": 6.7838, "minutes": 15.33, "total_pass": 60.5061, "accurate_pass": 52.4319, "duels_won": 4.1621, "total_long_balls": 8.255, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8258, "total_own_half_passes": 36.6336, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.7032, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.7287, "crosses_total": 0.2127, "crosses_accurate": 0.0444, "touches": 72.0959, "possession_lost": 8.7703, "dispossessed": 0.1471, "duels_lost": 2.1112, "aerial_lost": 0.9846, "total_contest": 0.0537, "won_contest": 0.0322, "ball_recovery": 2.9207, "challenges_lost": 0.1641, "fouls": 0.7923, "fouls_drawn": 0.4526, "blocks": 0.414, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0155, "assist_rate": 0.0155, "expected_goals": 0.0238, "expected_assists": 0.0327, "shots_on_target": 0.074, "big_chances_created": 0.0205, "xgot": 0.0166, "ball_carries": 19.4522, "total_progression": 67.4058, "progressive_carries": 0.8904, "key_pass": 0.4802, "shots_off_target": 0.1552 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0053, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1703, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.3 to 14.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5064, "tackles": 0.5109, "tackles_won": 0.3118, "clearances": 1.8522, "aerial_won": 0.951, "total_shots": 0.215, "rating": 6.7838, "minutes": 14.38, "total_pass": 56.7465, "accurate_pass": 49.174, "duels_won": 3.9035, "total_long_balls": 7.7421, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5881, "total_own_half_passes": 34.3574, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.5469, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3893, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6271, "crosses_total": 0.1995, "crosses_accurate": 0.0416, "touches": 67.6162, "possession_lost": 8.2254, "dispossessed": 0.1471, "duels_lost": 1.98, "aerial_lost": 0.9846, "total_contest": 0.0504, "won_contest": 0.0302, "ball_recovery": 2.7392, "challenges_lost": 0.1641, "fouls": 0.7431, "fouls_drawn": 0.4245, "blocks": 0.3883, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0145, "assist_rate": 0.0145, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "shots_on_target": 0.0694, "big_chances_created": 0.0192, "xgot": 0.0156, "ball_carries": 18.2435, "total_progression": 63.2175, "progressive_carries": 0.8351, "key_pass": 0.4504, "shots_off_target": 0.1456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.233, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.38 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.38, "projection_minutes": 15.33, "minutes_scale": 0.9379, "appearance_probability": 0.233 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5064, "tackles": 0.5109, "tackles_won": 0.3118, "clearances": 1.8522, "aerial_won": 0.951, "total_shots": 0.215, "rating": 6.7838, "minutes": 14.38, "total_pass": 56.7465, "accurate_pass": 49.174, "duels_won": 3.9035, "total_long_balls": 7.7421, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5881, "total_own_half_passes": 34.3574, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.5469, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3893, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6271, "crosses_total": 0.1995, "crosses_accurate": 0.0416, "touches": 67.6162, "possession_lost": 8.2254, "dispossessed": 0.1471, "duels_lost": 1.98, "aerial_lost": 0.9846, "total_contest": 0.0504, "won_contest": 0.0302, "ball_recovery": 2.7392, "challenges_lost": 0.1641, "fouls": 0.7431, "fouls_drawn": 0.4245, "blocks": 0.3883, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0145, "assist_rate": 0.0145, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "shots_on_target": 0.0694, "big_chances_created": 0.0192, "xgot": 0.0156, "ball_carries": 18.2435, "total_progression": 63.2175, "progressive_carries": 0.8351, "key_pass": 0.4504, "shots_off_target": 0.1456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.233, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.38 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5064, "tackles": 0.5109, "tackles_won": 0.3118, "clearances": 1.8522, "aerial_won": 0.951, "total_shots": 0.215, "rating": 6.7838, "minutes": 14.38, "total_pass": 56.7465, "accurate_pass": 49.174, "duels_won": 3.9035, "total_long_balls": 7.7421, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5881, "total_own_half_passes": 34.3574, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.5469, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3893, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6271, "crosses_total": 0.1995, "crosses_accurate": 0.0416, "touches": 67.6162, "possession_lost": 8.2254, "dispossessed": 0.1471, "duels_lost": 1.98, "aerial_lost": 0.9846, "total_contest": 0.0504, "won_contest": 0.0302, "ball_recovery": 2.7392, "challenges_lost": 0.1641, "fouls": 0.7431, "fouls_drawn": 0.4245, "blocks": 0.3883, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0145, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "shots_on_target": 0.0694, "big_chances_created": 0.0192, "xgot": 0.0156, "ball_carries": 18.2435, "total_progression": 63.2175, "progressive_carries": 0.8351, "key_pass": 0.4504, "shots_off_target": 0.1456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.233, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.38, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.233, "projected_substitutes": 4, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5064, "tackles": 0.5109, "tackles_won": 0.3118, "clearances": 1.8522, "aerial_won": 0.951, "total_shots": 0.215, "rating": 6.7838, "minutes": 14.38, "total_pass": 56.7465, "accurate_pass": 49.174, "duels_won": 3.9035, "total_long_balls": 7.7421, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5881, "total_own_half_passes": 34.3574, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.5469, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3893, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6271, "crosses_total": 0.1995, "crosses_accurate": 0.0416, "touches": 67.6162, "possession_lost": 8.2254, "dispossessed": 0.1471, "duels_lost": 1.98, "aerial_lost": 0.9846, "total_contest": 0.0504, "won_contest": 0.0302, "ball_recovery": 2.7392, "challenges_lost": 0.1641, "fouls": 0.7431, "fouls_drawn": 0.4245, "blocks": 0.3883, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0145, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "shots_on_target": 0.0694, "big_chances_created": 0.0192, "xgot": 0.0156, "ball_carries": 18.2435, "total_progression": 63.2175, "progressive_carries": 0.8351, "key_pass": 0.4504, "shots_off_target": 0.1456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.233, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.38, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1034, "fifa_rank": 856.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } } ] }, "Hugo Larsson": { "player_id": 1142211, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 187, "market_value": 30000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "assist_rate": 0.0428, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 3.7398, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.549, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.08, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0269, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0209, "finishing_factor": 1.0961, "creation_factor": 1.0474, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1278, "expected_assists": 0.2213, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3138, "combined_rank_score": 1104.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1511.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6577, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Hugo Larsson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Robert Navarro", "ranking": 3133 }, { "player_name": "Luka Sučić", "ranking": 3134 }, { "player_name": "Che Adams", "ranking": 3135 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Vicente", "ranking": 3136 }, { "player_name": "Lautaro Di Lollo", "ranking": 3137 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kasper Dolberg", "ranking": 3139 }, { "player_name": "Matt Grimes", "ranking": 3140 }, { "player_name": "Sem Steijn", "ranking": 3141 }, { "player_name": "David Brooks", "ranking": 3142 }, { "player_name": "André Silva", "ranking": 3143 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.081594925726826, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5491634057148558, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0399, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (3 historical appearances) to 23.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.55)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2329, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "assists": 0.0274, "assist_rate": 0.0274, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "goals": 0.0397, "goal_rate": 0.0397, "shots_on_target": 0.1267, "total_shots": 0.3569, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 15.06, "total_pass": 8.0982, "accurate_pass": 5.7007, "duels_won": 0.2809, "total_long_balls": 0.3887, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3887, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9009, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1234, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1973, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5773, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.999, "possession_lost": 2.3975, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2809, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2809, "clearances": 0.7775, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2809, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2313, "total_progression": 15.1361, "progressive_carries": 0.3304, "shots_off_target": 0.2302 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.2809, "creative_index": 0.0385, "expectedGoals": 0.0359, "expectedAssists": 0.0641, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.23285126686096191, "model_output": 0.2329, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.45 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0442 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0367 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0194 } ], "others": -0.0809, "total": 0.2329, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.708886 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.106748 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.098318 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.064219 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.059952 } ], "others_margin": -0.298417 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.024701284244656563, "model_output": 0.0247, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0024 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.002 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0092, "total": 0.0247, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.613387 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.250641 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.068976 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.058155 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.053991 } ], "others_margin": -0.316013 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.027413491159677505, "model_output": 0.0274, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0038 } ], "others": -0.015, "total": 0.0274, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.267201 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.20756 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.1926 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.122762 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.093799 } ], "others_margin": -0.437989 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03332273289561272, "model_output": 0.0333, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0058 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0035 } ], "others": -0.0095, "total": 0.0333, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.583476 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.166467 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.122817 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.084778 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.079484 } ], "others_margin": -0.25021 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.03966290131211281, "model_output": 0.0397, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0451 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.0036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.003 } ], "others": -0.0062, "total": 0.0397, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.618812 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.196315 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.09198 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.088401 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.067412 } ], "others_margin": -0.149629 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.12674649059772491, "model_output": 0.1267, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1342 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0529 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0055 } ], "others": -0.0076, "total": 0.1267, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.535039 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.326502 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.073016 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.052128 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.04006 } ], "others_margin": -0.057814 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3569229245185852, "model_output": 0.3569, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3421 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1882 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0301 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0203 } ], "others": -0.0302, "total": 0.3569, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.342052 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.188233 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.030055 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.022673 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.020251 } ], "others_margin": -0.030278 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.65774393081665, "model_output": 6.6577, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0715 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0473 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0288, "total": 6.6577, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.071515 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.047261 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017069 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014736 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01179 } ], "others_margin": -0.028755 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0399, quality 0.718)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2421, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "assists": 0.0285, "assist_rate": 0.0285, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0.1318, "total_shots": 0.3712, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 15.06, "total_pass": 8.4213, "accurate_pass": 5.9282, "duels_won": 0.2921, "total_long_balls": 0.4042, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4042, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0166, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2081, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4047, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.72, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.398, "possession_lost": 2.4932, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2921, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2921, "clearances": 0.8085, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2921, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.3203, "total_progression": 15.74, "progressive_carries": 0.3436, "shots_off_target": 0.2394 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 30000000, "quality_factor": 0.7176, "boost_factor": 1.0399, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.1 to 23.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3632, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "assists": 0.0428, "assist_rate": 0.0428, "expected_goals": 0.052, "goals": 0.0618, "goal_rate": 0.0618, "shots_on_target": 0.1977, "total_shots": 0.5568, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 23.08, "total_pass": 12.6319, "accurate_pass": 8.8923, "duels_won": 0.4382, "total_long_balls": 0.6063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6063, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3121, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1071, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.58, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.597, "possession_lost": 3.7398, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4382, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4382, "clearances": 1.2127, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2921, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4805, "total_progression": 23.61, "progressive_carries": 0.5154, "shots_off_target": 0.3591, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.549, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.08 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.08, "projection_minutes": 15.06, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.549 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3632, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "assists": 0.0428, "assist_rate": 0.0428, "expected_goals": 0.052, "goals": 0.0618, "goal_rate": 0.0618, "shots_on_target": 0.1977, "total_shots": 0.5568, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 23.08, "total_pass": 12.6319, "accurate_pass": 8.8923, "duels_won": 0.4382, "total_long_balls": 0.6063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6063, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3121, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1071, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.58, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.597, "possession_lost": 3.7398, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4382, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4382, "clearances": 1.2127, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2921, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4805, "total_progression": 23.61, "progressive_carries": 0.5154, "shots_off_target": 0.3591, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.549, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.08 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3470, xG scale 0.9666, xA scale 1.0085, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3632, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "assist_rate": 0.0428, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1977, "total_shots": 0.5568, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 23.08, "total_pass": 12.6319, "accurate_pass": 8.8923, "duels_won": 0.4382, "total_long_balls": 0.6063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6063, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3121, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1071, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.58, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.597, "possession_lost": 3.7398, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4382, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4382, "clearances": 1.2127, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2921, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4805, "total_progression": 23.61, "progressive_carries": 0.5154, "shots_off_target": 0.3591, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.549, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.08, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0961, "creation_factor": 1.0474 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.347, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8391, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9666, "xa_scale": 1.0085, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.549 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3632, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "assist_rate": 0.0428, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1977, "total_shots": 0.5568, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 23.08, "total_pass": 12.6319, "accurate_pass": 8.8923, "duels_won": 0.4382, "total_long_balls": 0.6063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6063, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3121, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1071, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.58, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.597, "possession_lost": 3.7398, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4382, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4382, "clearances": 1.2127, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2921, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4805, "total_progression": 23.61, "progressive_carries": 0.5154, "shots_off_target": 0.3591, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.549, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.08, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0961, "creation_factor": 1.0474, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3138, "fifa_rank": 1511.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3632, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "assist_rate": 0.0428, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1977, "total_shots": 0.5568, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 23.08, "total_pass": 12.6319, "accurate_pass": 8.8923, "duels_won": 0.4382, "total_long_balls": 0.6063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6063, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3121, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1071, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.58, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.597, "possession_lost": 3.7398, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4382, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4382, "clearances": 1.2127, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2921, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4805, "total_progression": 23.61, "progressive_carries": 0.5154, "shots_off_target": 0.3591, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.549, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.08, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0269, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0961, "creation_factor": 1.0474, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0269, "scorer_weight": 0.0303, "squad_weight_total": 1.4299, "weight_share": 0.0212, "finishing_factor": 1.0961, "appearance_weight": 0.549, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3632, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "assist_rate": 0.0428, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1977, "total_shots": 0.5568, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 23.08, "total_pass": 12.6319, "accurate_pass": 8.8923, "duels_won": 0.4382, "total_long_balls": 0.6063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6063, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3121, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1071, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.58, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.597, "possession_lost": 3.7398, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4382, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4382, "clearances": 1.2127, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2921, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4805, "total_progression": 23.61, "progressive_carries": 0.5154, "shots_off_target": 0.3591, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.549, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.08, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0269, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0209, "finishing_factor": 1.0961, "creation_factor": 1.0474, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0209, "provider_weight": 0.0224, "squad_weight_total": 0.7437, "weight_share": 0.0301, "creation_factor": 1.0474, "appearance_weight": 0.549, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Emile Smith Rowe": { "player_id": 867445, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 32, "height": 182, "market_value": 18300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "assist_rate": 0.0363, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6861, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 2.5855, "dispossessed": 0.6454, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0275, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0257, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0184, "finishing_factor": 1.1369, "creation_factor": 1.1325, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0581, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0598, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0435, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 40, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0887, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023931, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0557, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025031, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024000, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2227, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3121, "combined_rank_score": 1081.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 744.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6676, "sofascore_appearances": 37.0, "fifa_rank": 1419.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6861, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Emile Smith Rowe", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Youri Baas", "ranking": 3116 }, { "player_name": "Martín Satriano", "ranking": 3117 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Leonardo", "ranking": 3118 }, { "player_name": "Chidera Ejuke", "ranking": 3119 }, { "player_name": "Adrián Martínez", "ranking": 3120 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Santiago Giménez", "ranking": 3122 }, { "player_name": "Mykola Shaparenko", "ranking": 3123 }, { "player_name": "Kostas Tsimikas", "ranking": 3124 }, { "player_name": "Kepa", "ranking": 3125 }, { "player_name": "Nahuel Molina", "ranking": 3126 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.752, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.752, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.706, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0036, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Fulham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 15.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (40 historical appearances) to 18.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.71); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 15.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3412, "expected_assists": 0.027, "assists": 0.0372, "assist_rate": 0.0372, "expected_goals": 0.0393, "goals": 0.0518, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "shots_on_target": 0.1788, "total_shots": 0.5935, "rating": 6.6861, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 11.4554, "accurate_pass": 10.2543, "duels_won": 0.6444, "total_long_balls": 0.2915, "accurate_long_balls": 0.133, "total_own_half_passes": 3.598, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.287, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9671, "crosses_total": 0.0679, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.649, "possession_lost": 2.653, "dispossessed": 0.6431, "duels_lost": 1.4486, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4648, "interceptions": 0.2558, "tackles_won": 0.2767, "tackles": 0.3932, "clearances": 0.0973, "total_contest": 0.4132, "won_contest": 0.1815, "challenges_lost": 0.0973, "fouls": 0.0118, "fouls_drawn": 0.0697, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1, "xgot": 0.0293, "ball_carries": 3.8819, "total_progression": 4.4493, "progressive_carries": 0.2436, "shots_off_target": 0.4147 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.7567, "creative_index": 0.1799, "expectedGoals": 0.065, "expectedAssists": 0.0173, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2416 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.34123748540878296, "model_output": 0.3412, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4184 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0488 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0418 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0292 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.017 } ], "others": 0.0102, "total": 0.3412, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.638901 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.110203 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.105088 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.080667 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.04999 } ], "others_margin": 0.030488 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.026951517909765244, "model_output": 0.027, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0354 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0066 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0023 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0071, "total": 0.027, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.532511 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.203328 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.17578 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.070416 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.05709 } ], "others_margin": -0.232726 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.037249594926834106, "model_output": 0.0372, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0026, "total": 0.0372, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.348067 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.151055 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.108491 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.082383 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.07097 } ], "others_margin": -0.066744 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03931741043925285, "model_output": 0.0393, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0423 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0028 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0025 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0025 } ], "others": -0.0121, "total": 0.0393, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.59482 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.058017 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.057927 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.052748 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.049794 } ], "others_margin": -0.267949 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.0518365241587162, "model_output": 0.0518, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0407 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0039 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0041 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0042 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.004 } ], "others": -0.0133, "total": 0.0518, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.540122 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.067074 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.065322 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.061944 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.059067 } ], "others_margin": -0.228398 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.17877404391765594, "model_output": 0.1788, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1479 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0049 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0047 } ], "others": -0.0043, "total": 0.1788, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.609649 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.076846 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.039333 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.026352 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.025255 } ], "others_margin": -0.023554 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5934514403343201, "model_output": 0.5935, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4104 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0515 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0491 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0242 } ], "others": 0.0145, "total": 0.5935, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.410438 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.051499 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.049126 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.025536 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.024225 } ], "others_margin": 0.014487 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.686083793640137, "model_output": 6.6861, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0886 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0314 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0078 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0069 } ], "others": -0.0184, "total": 6.6861, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.088605 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031414 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.023494 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.007818 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.006876 } ], "others_margin": -0.018333 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0036, quality 0.614)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3425, "expected_assists": 0.027, "assists": 0.0374, "assist_rate": 0.0374, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "goals": 0.052, "goal_rate": 0.052, "shots_on_target": 0.1794, "total_shots": 0.5956, "rating": 6.6861, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 11.4966, "accurate_pass": 10.2912, "duels_won": 0.6467, "total_long_balls": 0.2925, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1335, "total_own_half_passes": 3.611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2988, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8856, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9922, "crosses_total": 0.0681, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7053, "possession_lost": 2.6626, "dispossessed": 0.6454, "duels_lost": 1.4538, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4665, "interceptions": 0.2567, "tackles_won": 0.2777, "tackles": 0.3946, "clearances": 0.0977, "total_contest": 0.4147, "won_contest": 0.1822, "challenges_lost": 0.0977, "fouls": 0.0118, "fouls_drawn": 0.07, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1004, "xgot": 0.0294, "ball_carries": 3.8959, "total_progression": 4.4653, "progressive_carries": 0.2445, "shots_off_target": 0.4162 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18300000, "quality_factor": 0.614, "boost_factor": 1.0036, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0010)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3425, "expected_assists": 0.027, "assists": 0.0374, "assist_rate": 0.0374, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "goals": 0.052, "goal_rate": 0.052, "shots_on_target": 0.1792, "total_shots": 0.5962, "rating": 6.6861, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 11.4966, "accurate_pass": 10.2912, "duels_won": 0.6467, "total_long_balls": 0.2925, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1335, "total_own_half_passes": 3.611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2988, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8856, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9922, "crosses_total": 0.068, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7053, "possession_lost": 2.6626, "dispossessed": 0.6454, "duels_lost": 1.4538, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4665, "interceptions": 0.2565, "tackles_won": 0.2774, "tackles": 0.3946, "clearances": 0.0977, "total_contest": 0.4147, "won_contest": 0.1822, "challenges_lost": 0.0977, "fouls": 0.0118, "fouls_drawn": 0.0699, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1004, "xgot": 0.0294, "ball_carries": 3.8959, "total_progression": 4.4653, "progressive_carries": 0.2445, "shots_off_target": 0.4162 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.001, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2111, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 18.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3326, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "assists": 0.0363, "assist_rate": 0.0363, "expected_goals": 0.0384, "goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "shots_on_target": 0.174, "total_shots": 0.5789, "rating": 6.6861, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 11.1638, "accurate_pass": 9.9933, "duels_won": 0.628, "total_long_balls": 0.284, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1296, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2033, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7898, "crosses_total": 0.066, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2507, "possession_lost": 2.5855, "dispossessed": 0.6454, "duels_lost": 1.4117, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4665, "interceptions": 0.2491, "tackles_won": 0.2694, "tackles": 0.3832, "clearances": 0.0949, "total_contest": 0.4027, "won_contest": 0.1769, "challenges_lost": 0.0977, "fouls": 0.0115, "fouls_drawn": 0.0679, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0975, "xgot": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 3.7831, "total_progression": 4.336, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.4042, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.45, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 0.9711, "appearance_probability": 0.706 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3326, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "assists": 0.0363, "assist_rate": 0.0363, "expected_goals": 0.0384, "goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "shots_on_target": 0.174, "total_shots": 0.5789, "rating": 6.6861, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 11.1638, "accurate_pass": 9.9933, "duels_won": 0.628, "total_long_balls": 0.284, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1296, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2033, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7898, "crosses_total": 0.066, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2507, "possession_lost": 2.5855, "dispossessed": 0.6454, "duels_lost": 1.4117, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4665, "interceptions": 0.2491, "tackles_won": 0.2694, "tackles": 0.3832, "clearances": 0.0949, "total_contest": 0.4027, "won_contest": 0.1769, "challenges_lost": 0.0977, "fouls": 0.0115, "fouls_drawn": 0.0679, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0975, "xgot": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 3.7831, "total_progression": 4.336, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.4042, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3470, xG scale 0.9666, xA scale 1.0085, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3326, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "assist_rate": 0.0363, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.174, "total_shots": 0.5789, "rating": 6.6861, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 11.1638, "accurate_pass": 9.9933, "duels_won": 0.628, "total_long_balls": 0.284, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1296, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2033, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7898, "crosses_total": 0.066, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2507, "possession_lost": 2.5855, "dispossessed": 0.6454, "duels_lost": 1.4117, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4665, "interceptions": 0.2491, "tackles_won": 0.2694, "tackles": 0.3832, "clearances": 0.0949, "total_contest": 0.4027, "won_contest": 0.1769, "challenges_lost": 0.0977, "fouls": 0.0115, "fouls_drawn": 0.0679, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0975, "xgot": 0.0275, "ball_carries": 3.7831, "total_progression": 4.336, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.4042, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1369, "creation_factor": 1.1325 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.347, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8391, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9666, "xa_scale": 1.0085, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.706 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3326, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "assist_rate": 0.0363, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.174, "total_shots": 0.5789, "rating": 6.6861, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 11.1638, "accurate_pass": 9.9933, "duels_won": 0.628, "total_long_balls": 0.284, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1296, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2033, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7898, "crosses_total": 0.066, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2507, "possession_lost": 2.5855, "dispossessed": 0.6454, "duels_lost": 1.4117, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4665, "interceptions": 0.2491, "tackles_won": 0.2694, "tackles": 0.3832, "clearances": 0.0949, "total_contest": 0.4027, "won_contest": 0.1769, "challenges_lost": 0.0977, "fouls": 0.0115, "fouls_drawn": 0.0679, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0975, "xgot": 0.0275, "ball_carries": 3.7831, "total_progression": 4.336, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.4042, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1369, "creation_factor": 1.1325, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3121, "fifa_rank": 1419.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3326, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "assist_rate": 0.0363, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.174, "total_shots": 0.5789, "rating": 6.6861, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 11.1638, "accurate_pass": 9.9933, "duels_won": 0.628, "total_long_balls": 0.284, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1296, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2033, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7898, "crosses_total": 0.066, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2507, "possession_lost": 2.5855, "dispossessed": 0.6454, "duels_lost": 1.4117, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4665, "interceptions": 0.2491, "tackles_won": 0.2694, "tackles": 0.3832, "clearances": 0.0949, "total_contest": 0.4027, "won_contest": 0.1769, "challenges_lost": 0.0977, "fouls": 0.0115, "fouls_drawn": 0.0679, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0975, "xgot": 0.0275, "ball_carries": 3.7831, "total_progression": 4.336, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.4042, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0257, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1369, "creation_factor": 1.1325, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0257, "scorer_weight": 0.0298, "squad_weight_total": 1.4299, "weight_share": 0.0208, "finishing_factor": 1.1369, "appearance_weight": 0.706, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3326, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "assist_rate": 0.0363, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.174, "total_shots": 0.5789, "rating": 6.6861, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 11.1638, "accurate_pass": 9.9933, "duels_won": 0.628, "total_long_balls": 0.284, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1296, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2033, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7898, "crosses_total": 0.066, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2507, "possession_lost": 2.5855, "dispossessed": 0.6454, "duels_lost": 1.4117, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4665, "interceptions": 0.2491, "tackles_won": 0.2694, "tackles": 0.3832, "clearances": 0.0949, "total_contest": 0.4027, "won_contest": 0.1769, "challenges_lost": 0.0977, "fouls": 0.0115, "fouls_drawn": 0.0679, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0975, "xgot": 0.0275, "ball_carries": 3.7831, "total_progression": 4.336, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.4042, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0257, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0184, "finishing_factor": 1.1369, "creation_factor": 1.1325, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0184, "provider_weight": 0.0211, "squad_weight_total": 0.7437, "weight_share": 0.0284, "creation_factor": 1.1325, "appearance_weight": 0.706, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Kevin": { "player_id": 1112879, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 176, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.043, "goal_rate": 0.0652, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0328, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6865, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 4.9049, "dispossessed": 0.5301, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0226, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0559, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 32, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0311, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0238, "finishing_factor": 1.219, "creation_factor": 0.88, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0366, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0304, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0398, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0183, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 10, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0253, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024011, "match_date": "2026-02-22", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 44, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1221, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025212, "match_date": "2026-02-11", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "expected_assists": 0.071, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025167, "match_date": "2026-02-07", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3248, "combined_rank_score": 1190.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 615.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7731, "sofascore_appearances": 26.0, "fifa_rank": 1766.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6865, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kevin", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Håkon Evjen", "ranking": 3243 }, { "player_name": "Jayden Bogle", "ranking": 3244 }, { "player_name": "Jérémie Boga", "ranking": 3245 }, { "player_name": "Jean Butez", "ranking": 3246 }, { "player_name": "Lorenzo Pellegrini", "ranking": 3247 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dodô", "ranking": 3249 }, { "player_name": "Pervis Estupiñán", "ranking": 3250 }, { "player_name": "Teun Koopmeiners", "ranking": 3251 }, { "player_name": "Yann Aurel Bisseck", "ranking": 3252 }, { "player_name": "Christian Kofane", "ranking": 3253 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.753, "history_matches": 30, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 30, "data_confidence": 0.753, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.739, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0078, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Fulham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 13.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.02 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (30 historical appearances) to 19.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.74); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 13.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0513, "goals": 0.0752, "goal_rate": 0.0752, "shots_on_target": 0.2898, "total_shots": 0.7685, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "key_pass": 0.364, "rating": 6.6865, "minutes": 22.03, "total_pass": 8.1742, "accurate_pass": 6.1004, "duels_won": 1.924, "total_long_balls": 0.5532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3637, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.888, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2742, "crosses_total": 1.1366, "crosses_accurate": 0.1411, "touches": 15.642, "possession_lost": 5.652, "dispossessed": 0.526, "duels_lost": 2.8143, "aerial_lost": 0.159, "total_contest": 1.8768, "won_contest": 0.8155, "ball_recovery": 1.1282, "challenges_lost": 0.4862, "fouls": 0.5818, "fouls_drawn": 0.3415, "assists": 0.026, "assist_rate": 0.026, "interceptions": 0.2059, "tackles_won": 0.4075, "tackles": 0.7174, "clearances": 0.1914, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0188, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0666, "offsides": 0.103, "ball_carries": 4.8347, "total_progression": 36.3011, "progressive_carries": 1.2462, "shots_off_target": 0.4787 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1512, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1285, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1092, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0928, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0789, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0671, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.057, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-22", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 44.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-11", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-07", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0331, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 7.0165, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 5.2008, "accuratePass": 7.2505, "totalShots": 0.7987 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.05128155276179314, "model_output": 0.0513, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.089 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0077 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0035 } ], "others": -0.0193, "total": 0.0513, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.59336 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.215798 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.091266 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.089739 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.049193 } ], "others_margin": -0.316389 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07521678507328033, "model_output": 0.0752, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0784 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0054 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0032 } ], "others": -0.0084, "total": 0.0752, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.485847 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.211131 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.095248 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.060366 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.037818 } ], "others_margin": -0.106107 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.28976526856422424, "model_output": 0.2898, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1786 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.016 } ], "others": 0.0162, "total": 0.2898, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.404459 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.084593 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.068317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.060141 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.057019 } ], "others_margin": 0.057639 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7684517502784729, "model_output": 0.7685, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4539 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1254 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0389 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0282 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0269 } ], "others": 0.0067, "total": 0.7685, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.453947 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.125358 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.038928 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.028168 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.026911 } ], "others_margin": 0.00672 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03747761994600296, "model_output": 0.0375, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0025 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0027 } ], "others": -0.0061, "total": 0.0375, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.352927 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.087823 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.075843 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.063293 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.062922 } ], "others_margin": -0.14918 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3640066385269165, "model_output": 0.364, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.269 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0237 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0069, "total": 0.364, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.509311 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.056949 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.056457 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.053715 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.034684 } ], "others_margin": -0.018806 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.686515808105469, "model_output": 6.6865, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0644 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": -0.009, "total": 6.6865, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.064376 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.012941 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.011255 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01017 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.009457 } ], "others_margin": -0.008869 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0078, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0517, "goals": 0.0758, "goal_rate": 0.0758, "shots_on_target": 0.292, "total_shots": 0.7745, "expected_assists": 0.0378, "key_pass": 0.3668, "rating": 6.6865, "minutes": 22.03, "total_pass": 8.238, "accurate_pass": 6.148, "duels_won": 1.939, "total_long_balls": 0.5575, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3665, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9339, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3075, "crosses_total": 1.1455, "crosses_accurate": 0.1422, "touches": 15.764, "possession_lost": 5.6961, "dispossessed": 0.5301, "duels_lost": 2.8363, "aerial_lost": 0.1602, "total_contest": 1.8914, "won_contest": 0.8219, "ball_recovery": 1.137, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.5863, "fouls_drawn": 0.3442, "assists": 0.0262, "assist_rate": 0.0262, "interceptions": 0.2075, "tackles_won": 0.4107, "tackles": 0.723, "clearances": 0.1929, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0189, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0671, "offsides": 0.1038, "ball_carries": 4.8724, "total_progression": 36.5842, "progressive_carries": 1.2559, "shots_off_target": 0.4824 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0078, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0019)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0517, "goals": 0.0757, "goal_rate": 0.0757, "shots_on_target": 0.2915, "total_shots": 0.7731, "expected_assists": 0.0378, "key_pass": 0.3668, "rating": 6.6865, "minutes": 22.03, "total_pass": 8.238, "accurate_pass": 6.148, "duels_won": 1.939, "total_long_balls": 0.5575, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3665, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9339, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3075, "crosses_total": 1.1464, "crosses_accurate": 0.1422, "touches": 15.764, "possession_lost": 5.6961, "dispossessed": 0.5301, "duels_lost": 2.8363, "aerial_lost": 0.1602, "total_contest": 1.8914, "won_contest": 0.8219, "ball_recovery": 1.137, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.5898, "fouls_drawn": 0.3436, "assists": 0.0262, "assist_rate": 0.0262, "interceptions": 0.2071, "tackles_won": 0.4099, "tackles": 0.723, "clearances": 0.1929, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0189, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0671, "offsides": 0.1036, "ball_carries": 4.8724, "total_progression": 36.5842, "progressive_carries": 1.2559, "shots_off_target": 0.4824 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0019, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2448, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.0 to 19.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0445, "goals": 0.0652, "goal_rate": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.251, "total_shots": 0.6664, "expected_assists": 0.0325, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.6865, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0937, "accurate_pass": 5.294, "duels_won": 1.6697, "total_long_balls": 0.4801, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3156, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7092, "crosses_total": 0.9872, "crosses_accurate": 0.1224, "touches": 13.5744, "possession_lost": 4.9049, "dispossessed": 0.5301, "duels_lost": 2.4423, "aerial_lost": 0.1602, "total_contest": 1.6287, "won_contest": 0.7077, "ball_recovery": 0.9791, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.5079, "fouls_drawn": 0.2959, "assists": 0.0226, "assist_rate": 0.0226, "interceptions": 0.1783, "tackles_won": 0.353, "tackles": 0.6226, "clearances": 0.1661, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0163, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0578, "offsides": 0.1036, "ball_carries": 4.1956, "total_progression": 31.5026, "progressive_carries": 1.0815, "shots_off_target": 0.4154, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.97, "projection_minutes": 22.03, "minutes_scale": 0.8611, "appearance_probability": 0.739 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0445, "goals": 0.0652, "goal_rate": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.251, "total_shots": 0.6664, "expected_assists": 0.0325, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.6865, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0937, "accurate_pass": 5.294, "duels_won": 1.6697, "total_long_balls": 0.4801, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3156, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7092, "crosses_total": 0.9872, "crosses_accurate": 0.1224, "touches": 13.5744, "possession_lost": 4.9049, "dispossessed": 0.5301, "duels_lost": 2.4423, "aerial_lost": 0.1602, "total_contest": 1.6287, "won_contest": 0.7077, "ball_recovery": 0.9791, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.5079, "fouls_drawn": 0.2959, "assists": 0.0226, "assist_rate": 0.0226, "interceptions": 0.1783, "tackles_won": 0.353, "tackles": 0.6226, "clearances": 0.1661, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0163, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0578, "offsides": 0.1036, "ball_carries": 4.1956, "total_progression": 31.5026, "progressive_carries": 1.0815, "shots_off_target": 0.4154, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3470, xG scale 0.9666, xA scale 1.0085, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.043, "goal_rate": 0.0652, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.251, "total_shots": 0.6664, "expected_assists": 0.0328, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.6865, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0937, "accurate_pass": 5.294, "duels_won": 1.6697, "total_long_balls": 0.4801, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3156, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7092, "crosses_total": 0.9872, "crosses_accurate": 0.1224, "touches": 13.5744, "possession_lost": 4.9049, "dispossessed": 0.5301, "duels_lost": 2.4423, "aerial_lost": 0.1602, "total_contest": 1.6287, "won_contest": 0.7077, "ball_recovery": 0.9791, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.5079, "fouls_drawn": 0.2959, "assist_rate": 0.0226, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1783, "tackles_won": 0.353, "tackles": 0.6226, "clearances": 0.1661, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0163, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0559, "offsides": 0.1036, "ball_carries": 4.1956, "total_progression": 31.5026, "progressive_carries": 1.0815, "shots_off_target": 0.4154, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.219, "creation_factor": 0.88 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.347, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8391, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9666, "xa_scale": 1.0085, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.739 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.043, "goal_rate": 0.0652, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.251, "total_shots": 0.6664, "expected_assists": 0.0328, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.6865, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0937, "accurate_pass": 5.294, "duels_won": 1.6697, "total_long_balls": 0.4801, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3156, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7092, "crosses_total": 0.9872, "crosses_accurate": 0.1224, "touches": 13.5744, "possession_lost": 4.9049, "dispossessed": 0.5301, "duels_lost": 2.4423, "aerial_lost": 0.1602, "total_contest": 1.6287, "won_contest": 0.7077, "ball_recovery": 0.9791, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.5079, "fouls_drawn": 0.2959, "assist_rate": 0.0226, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1783, "tackles_won": 0.353, "tackles": 0.6226, "clearances": 0.1661, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0163, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0559, "offsides": 0.1036, "ball_carries": 4.1956, "total_progression": 31.5026, "progressive_carries": 1.0815, "shots_off_target": 0.4154, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.219, "creation_factor": 0.88, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3248, "fifa_rank": 1766.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.043, "goal_rate": 0.0652, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.251, "total_shots": 0.6664, "expected_assists": 0.0328, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.6865, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0937, "accurate_pass": 5.294, "duels_won": 1.6697, "total_long_balls": 0.4801, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3156, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7092, "crosses_total": 0.9872, "crosses_accurate": 0.1224, "touches": 13.5744, "possession_lost": 4.9049, "dispossessed": 0.5301, "duels_lost": 2.4423, "aerial_lost": 0.1602, "total_contest": 1.6287, "won_contest": 0.7077, "ball_recovery": 0.9791, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.5079, "fouls_drawn": 0.2959, "assist_rate": 0.0226, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1783, "tackles_won": 0.353, "tackles": 0.6226, "clearances": 0.1661, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0163, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0559, "offsides": 0.1036, "ball_carries": 4.1956, "total_progression": 31.5026, "progressive_carries": 1.0815, "shots_off_target": 0.4154, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0311, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.219, "creation_factor": 0.88, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0311, "scorer_weight": 0.0387, "squad_weight_total": 1.4299, "weight_share": 0.0271, "finishing_factor": 1.219, "appearance_weight": 0.739, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.043, "goal_rate": 0.0652, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.251, "total_shots": 0.6664, "expected_assists": 0.0328, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.6865, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0937, "accurate_pass": 5.294, "duels_won": 1.6697, "total_long_balls": 0.4801, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3156, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7092, "crosses_total": 0.9872, "crosses_accurate": 0.1224, "touches": 13.5744, "possession_lost": 4.9049, "dispossessed": 0.5301, "duels_lost": 2.4423, "aerial_lost": 0.1602, "total_contest": 1.6287, "won_contest": 0.7077, "ball_recovery": 0.9791, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.5079, "fouls_drawn": 0.2959, "assist_rate": 0.0226, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1783, "tackles_won": 0.353, "tackles": 0.6226, "clearances": 0.1661, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0163, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0559, "offsides": 0.1036, "ball_carries": 4.1956, "total_progression": 31.5026, "progressive_carries": 1.0815, "shots_off_target": 0.4154, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0311, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0238, "finishing_factor": 1.219, "creation_factor": 0.88, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0238, "provider_weight": 0.0213, "squad_weight_total": 0.7437, "weight_share": 0.0287, "creation_factor": 0.88, "appearance_weight": 0.739, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Rodrigo Muniz": { "player_id": 1015256, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 184, "market_value": 22000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1144, "goal_rate": 0.116, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5372, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 3.1388, "dispossessed": 0.0531, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0265, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0796, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0067, "finishing_factor": 0.9857, "creation_factor": 0.8475, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.382, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0196, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1592, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1511, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7094, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 7, "duels_won": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023931, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.114, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025031, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3299, "combined_rank_score": 1249.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1800.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.5372, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Rodrigo Muniz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Michael Zetterer", "ranking": 3294 }, { "player_name": "Lukas Nmecha", "ranking": 3295 }, { "player_name": "Ruslan Malinovskyi", "ranking": 3296 }, { "player_name": "Ibrahim Mbaye", "ranking": 3297 }, { "player_name": "Unai Núñez", "ranking": 3298 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Raíllo", "ranking": 3300 }, { "player_name": "Gelson Martins", "ranking": 3301 }, { "player_name": "Abel Bretones", "ranking": 3302 }, { "player_name": "Chiquinho", "ranking": 3303 }, { "player_name": "Kaiki", "ranking": 3304 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.751, "history_matches": 25, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 25, "data_confidence": 0.751, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.736, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0073, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Fulham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 9.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (25 historical appearances) to 16.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.74); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 9.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1188, "goals": 0.1164, "goal_rate": 0.1164, "shots_on_target": 0.2724, "total_shots": 0.8335, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "key_pass": 0.2108, "rating": 6.5372, "minutes": 16.89, "total_pass": 3.1143, "accurate_pass": 1.6116, "duels_won": 2.9508, "total_long_balls": 0.0952, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0381, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4459, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2886, "crosses_total": 0.062, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9881, "possession_lost": 3.1496, "dispossessed": 0.0527, "duels_lost": 2.4128, "aerial_lost": 1.9013, "total_contest": 0.201, "won_contest": 0.062, "ball_recovery": 0.1632, "challenges_lost": 0.0729, "fouls": 0.2468, "fouls_drawn": 0.3888, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1587, "tackles": 0.264, "clearances": 0.6941, "blocks": 0.0761, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0275, "offsides": 0.0729, "ball_carries": 1.3109, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0405, "shots_off_target": 0.5611 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1526, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1297, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1103, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0937, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0797, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0677, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0576, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0489, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0416, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0354, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1456, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 4.0772, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 1.8167, "accuratePass": 2.4463, "totalShots": 1.1828 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.11878408491611481, "model_output": 0.1188, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0855 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0069 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0044 } ], "others": 0.0079, "total": 0.1188, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.561333 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.074431 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.06356 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.053049 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.040673 } ], "others_margin": 0.068811 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.11643125116825104, "model_output": 0.1164, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0731 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0088 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0071 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0071 } ], "others": -0.002, "total": 0.1164, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.444627 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.17563 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.077209 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.061873 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.061455 } ], "others_margin": -0.016125 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2724405527114868, "model_output": 0.2724, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2205 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0125, "total": 0.2724, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.52868 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.062142 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.0417 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.036313 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.035071 } ], "others_margin": -0.044775 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8335279226303101, "model_output": 0.8335, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5782 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0517 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.043 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0396 } ], "others": -0.0207, "total": 0.8335, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.578246 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.101968 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.051728 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.042966 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.039564 } ], "others_margin": -0.020575 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.009079675190150738, "model_output": 0.0091, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0039 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0023 } ], "others": -0.0125, "total": 0.0091, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.446917 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.302563 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.13641 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.103268 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.099821 } ], "others_margin": -0.868284 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.21082068979740143, "model_output": 0.2108, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2989 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0326 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0163 } ], "others": -0.0752, "total": 0.2108, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.586035 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.090828 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.063295 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.061477 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.055367 } ], "others_margin": -0.305186 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.53721809387207, "model_output": 6.5372, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0521 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0309 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0159 } ], "others": -0.1247, "total": 6.5372, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.052096 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.030914 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019484 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.018146 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.015947 } ], "others_margin": -0.124647 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0073, quality 0.650)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1197, "goals": 0.1173, "goal_rate": 0.1173, "shots_on_target": 0.2744, "total_shots": 0.8396, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "key_pass": 0.2124, "rating": 6.5372, "minutes": 16.89, "total_pass": 3.137, "accurate_pass": 1.6234, "duels_won": 2.9723, "total_long_balls": 0.0959, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0384, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.298, "crosses_total": 0.0625, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.0464, "possession_lost": 3.1726, "dispossessed": 0.0531, "duels_lost": 2.4304, "aerial_lost": 1.9152, "total_contest": 0.2025, "won_contest": 0.0625, "ball_recovery": 0.1644, "challenges_lost": 0.0734, "fouls": 0.2486, "fouls_drawn": 0.3916, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1599, "tackles": 0.2659, "clearances": 0.6992, "blocks": 0.0767, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0277, "offsides": 0.0734, "ball_carries": 1.3205, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0408, "shots_off_target": 0.5652 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 22000000, "quality_factor": 0.6503, "boost_factor": 1.0073, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0007)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1197, "goals": 0.1172, "goal_rate": 0.1172, "shots_on_target": 0.2756, "total_shots": 0.8404, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "key_pass": 0.2124, "rating": 6.5372, "minutes": 16.89, "total_pass": 3.137, "accurate_pass": 1.6234, "duels_won": 2.9723, "total_long_balls": 0.0959, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0384, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.298, "crosses_total": 0.0625, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.0464, "possession_lost": 3.1726, "dispossessed": 0.0531, "duels_lost": 2.4304, "aerial_lost": 1.9152, "total_contest": 0.2025, "won_contest": 0.0625, "ball_recovery": 0.1644, "challenges_lost": 0.0734, "fouls": 0.2484, "fouls_drawn": 0.3913, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1598, "tackles": 0.2659, "clearances": 0.6992, "blocks": 0.0767, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0277, "offsides": 0.0733, "ball_carries": 1.3205, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0408, "shots_off_target": 0.5652 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0007, "history_matches": 25, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1877, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.9 to 16.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1184, "goals": 0.116, "goal_rate": 0.116, "shots_on_target": 0.2727, "total_shots": 0.8319, "expected_assists": 0.009, "key_pass": 0.2101, "rating": 6.5372, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1036, "accurate_pass": 1.6061, "duels_won": 2.9406, "total_long_balls": 0.0949, "accurate_long_balls": 0.038, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2842, "crosses_total": 0.0618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9606, "possession_lost": 3.1388, "dispossessed": 0.0531, "duels_lost": 2.4045, "aerial_lost": 1.9152, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.0618, "ball_recovery": 0.1626, "challenges_lost": 0.0734, "fouls": 0.2458, "fouls_drawn": 0.3871, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1581, "tackles": 0.2631, "clearances": 0.6917, "blocks": 0.0759, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0274, "offsides": 0.0733, "ball_carries": 1.3064, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0404, "shots_off_target": 0.5592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 16.71, "projection_minutes": 16.89, "minutes_scale": 0.9893, "appearance_probability": 0.736 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1184, "goals": 0.116, "goal_rate": 0.116, "shots_on_target": 0.2727, "total_shots": 0.8319, "expected_assists": 0.009, "key_pass": 0.2101, "rating": 6.5372, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1036, "accurate_pass": 1.6061, "duels_won": 2.9406, "total_long_balls": 0.0949, "accurate_long_balls": 0.038, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2842, "crosses_total": 0.0618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9606, "possession_lost": 3.1388, "dispossessed": 0.0531, "duels_lost": 2.4045, "aerial_lost": 1.9152, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.0618, "ball_recovery": 0.1626, "challenges_lost": 0.0734, "fouls": 0.2458, "fouls_drawn": 0.3871, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1581, "tackles": 0.2631, "clearances": 0.6917, "blocks": 0.0759, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0274, "offsides": 0.0733, "ball_carries": 1.3064, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0404, "shots_off_target": 0.5592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3470, xG scale 0.9666, xA scale 1.0085, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1144, "goal_rate": 0.116, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2727, "total_shots": 0.8319, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "key_pass": 0.2101, "rating": 6.5372, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1036, "accurate_pass": 1.6061, "duels_won": 2.9406, "total_long_balls": 0.0949, "accurate_long_balls": 0.038, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2842, "crosses_total": 0.0618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9606, "possession_lost": 3.1388, "dispossessed": 0.0531, "duels_lost": 2.4045, "aerial_lost": 1.9152, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.0618, "ball_recovery": 0.1626, "challenges_lost": 0.0734, "fouls": 0.2458, "fouls_drawn": 0.3871, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1581, "tackles": 0.2631, "clearances": 0.6917, "blocks": 0.0759, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0265, "offsides": 0.0733, "ball_carries": 1.3064, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0404, "shots_off_target": 0.5592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9857, "creation_factor": 0.8475 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.347, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8391, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9666, "xa_scale": 1.0085, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.736 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1144, "goal_rate": 0.116, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2727, "total_shots": 0.8319, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "key_pass": 0.2101, "rating": 6.5372, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1036, "accurate_pass": 1.6061, "duels_won": 2.9406, "total_long_balls": 0.0949, "accurate_long_balls": 0.038, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2842, "crosses_total": 0.0618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9606, "possession_lost": 3.1388, "dispossessed": 0.0531, "duels_lost": 2.4045, "aerial_lost": 1.9152, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.0618, "ball_recovery": 0.1626, "challenges_lost": 0.0734, "fouls": 0.2458, "fouls_drawn": 0.3871, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1581, "tackles": 0.2631, "clearances": 0.6917, "blocks": 0.0759, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0265, "offsides": 0.0733, "ball_carries": 1.3064, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0404, "shots_off_target": 0.5592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9857, "creation_factor": 0.8475, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3299, "fifa_rank": 1800.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1144, "goal_rate": 0.116, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2727, "total_shots": 0.8319, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "key_pass": 0.2101, "rating": 6.5372, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1036, "accurate_pass": 1.6061, "duels_won": 2.9406, "total_long_balls": 0.0949, "accurate_long_balls": 0.038, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2842, "crosses_total": 0.0618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9606, "possession_lost": 3.1388, "dispossessed": 0.0531, "duels_lost": 2.4045, "aerial_lost": 1.9152, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.0618, "ball_recovery": 0.1626, "challenges_lost": 0.0734, "fouls": 0.2458, "fouls_drawn": 0.3871, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1581, "tackles": 0.2631, "clearances": 0.6917, "blocks": 0.0759, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0265, "offsides": 0.0733, "ball_carries": 1.3064, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0404, "shots_off_target": 0.5592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0796, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9857, "creation_factor": 0.8475, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0796, "scorer_weight": 0.083, "squad_weight_total": 1.4299, "weight_share": 0.058, "finishing_factor": 0.9857, "appearance_weight": 0.736, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1144, "goal_rate": 0.116, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2727, "total_shots": 0.8319, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "key_pass": 0.2101, "rating": 6.5372, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1036, "accurate_pass": 1.6061, "duels_won": 2.9406, "total_long_balls": 0.0949, "accurate_long_balls": 0.038, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2842, "crosses_total": 0.0618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9606, "possession_lost": 3.1388, "dispossessed": 0.0531, "duels_lost": 2.4045, "aerial_lost": 1.9152, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.0618, "ball_recovery": 0.1626, "challenges_lost": 0.0734, "fouls": 0.2458, "fouls_drawn": 0.3871, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1581, "tackles": 0.2631, "clearances": 0.6917, "blocks": 0.0759, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0265, "offsides": 0.0733, "ball_carries": 1.3064, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0404, "shots_off_target": 0.5592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0796, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0067, "finishing_factor": 0.9857, "creation_factor": 0.8475, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0067, "provider_weight": 0.0057, "squad_weight_total": 0.7437, "weight_share": 0.0076, "creation_factor": 0.8475, "appearance_weight": 0.736, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Kevin": { "player_id": 1112879, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 176, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.043, "goal_rate": 0.0652, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0328, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6865, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 4.9049, "dispossessed": 0.5301, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0226, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0559, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 32, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0311, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0238, "finishing_factor": 1.219, "creation_factor": 0.88, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0366, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0304, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0398, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0183, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 10, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0253, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024011, "match_date": "2026-02-22", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 44, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1221, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025212, "match_date": "2026-02-11", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "expected_assists": 0.071, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025167, "match_date": "2026-02-07", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3248, "combined_rank_score": 1190.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 615.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7731, "sofascore_appearances": 26.0, "fifa_rank": 1766.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6865, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kevin", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Håkon Evjen", "ranking": 3243 }, { "player_name": "Jayden Bogle", "ranking": 3244 }, { "player_name": "Jérémie Boga", "ranking": 3245 }, { "player_name": "Jean Butez", "ranking": 3246 }, { "player_name": "Lorenzo Pellegrini", "ranking": 3247 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dodô", "ranking": 3249 }, { "player_name": "Pervis Estupiñán", "ranking": 3250 }, { "player_name": "Teun Koopmeiners", "ranking": 3251 }, { "player_name": "Yann Aurel Bisseck", "ranking": 3252 }, { "player_name": "Christian Kofane", "ranking": 3253 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.753, "history_matches": 30, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 30, "data_confidence": 0.753, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.739, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0078, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Fulham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 13.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.02 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (30 historical appearances) to 19.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.74); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 13.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0513, "goals": 0.0752, "goal_rate": 0.0752, "shots_on_target": 0.2898, "total_shots": 0.7685, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "key_pass": 0.364, "rating": 6.6865, "minutes": 22.03, "total_pass": 8.1742, "accurate_pass": 6.1004, "duels_won": 1.924, "total_long_balls": 0.5532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3637, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.888, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2742, "crosses_total": 1.1366, "crosses_accurate": 0.1411, "touches": 15.642, "possession_lost": 5.652, "dispossessed": 0.526, "duels_lost": 2.8143, "aerial_lost": 0.159, "total_contest": 1.8768, "won_contest": 0.8155, "ball_recovery": 1.1282, "challenges_lost": 0.4862, "fouls": 0.5818, "fouls_drawn": 0.3415, "assists": 0.026, "assist_rate": 0.026, "interceptions": 0.2059, "tackles_won": 0.4075, "tackles": 0.7174, "clearances": 0.1914, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0188, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0666, "offsides": 0.103, "ball_carries": 4.8347, "total_progression": 36.3011, "progressive_carries": 1.2462, "shots_off_target": 0.4787 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1512, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1285, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1092, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0928, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0789, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0671, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.057, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-22", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 44.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-11", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-07", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0331, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 7.0165, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 5.2008, "accuratePass": 7.2505, "totalShots": 0.7987 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.05128155276179314, "model_output": 0.0513, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.089 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0077 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0035 } ], "others": -0.0193, "total": 0.0513, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.59336 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.215798 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.091266 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.089739 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.049193 } ], "others_margin": -0.316389 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07521678507328033, "model_output": 0.0752, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0784 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0054 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0032 } ], "others": -0.0084, "total": 0.0752, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.485847 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.211131 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.095248 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.060366 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.037818 } ], "others_margin": -0.106107 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.28976526856422424, "model_output": 0.2898, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1786 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.016 } ], "others": 0.0162, "total": 0.2898, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.404459 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.084593 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.068317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.060141 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.057019 } ], "others_margin": 0.057639 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7684517502784729, "model_output": 0.7685, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4539 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1254 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0389 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0282 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0269 } ], "others": 0.0067, "total": 0.7685, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.453947 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.125358 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.038928 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.028168 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.026911 } ], "others_margin": 0.00672 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03747761994600296, "model_output": 0.0375, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0025 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0027 } ], "others": -0.0061, "total": 0.0375, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.352927 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.087823 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.075843 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.063293 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.062922 } ], "others_margin": -0.14918 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3640066385269165, "model_output": 0.364, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.269 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0237 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0069, "total": 0.364, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.509311 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.056949 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.056457 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.053715 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.034684 } ], "others_margin": -0.018806 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.686515808105469, "model_output": 6.6865, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0644 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": -0.009, "total": 6.6865, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.064376 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.012941 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.011255 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01017 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.009457 } ], "others_margin": -0.008869 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0078, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0517, "goals": 0.0758, "goal_rate": 0.0758, "shots_on_target": 0.292, "total_shots": 0.7745, "expected_assists": 0.0378, "key_pass": 0.3668, "rating": 6.6865, "minutes": 22.03, "total_pass": 8.238, "accurate_pass": 6.148, "duels_won": 1.939, "total_long_balls": 0.5575, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3665, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9339, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3075, "crosses_total": 1.1455, "crosses_accurate": 0.1422, "touches": 15.764, "possession_lost": 5.6961, "dispossessed": 0.5301, "duels_lost": 2.8363, "aerial_lost": 0.1602, "total_contest": 1.8914, "won_contest": 0.8219, "ball_recovery": 1.137, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.5863, "fouls_drawn": 0.3442, "assists": 0.0262, "assist_rate": 0.0262, "interceptions": 0.2075, "tackles_won": 0.4107, "tackles": 0.723, "clearances": 0.1929, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0189, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0671, "offsides": 0.1038, "ball_carries": 4.8724, "total_progression": 36.5842, "progressive_carries": 1.2559, "shots_off_target": 0.4824 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0078, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0019)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0517, "goals": 0.0757, "goal_rate": 0.0757, "shots_on_target": 0.2915, "total_shots": 0.7731, "expected_assists": 0.0378, "key_pass": 0.3668, "rating": 6.6865, "minutes": 22.03, "total_pass": 8.238, "accurate_pass": 6.148, "duels_won": 1.939, "total_long_balls": 0.5575, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3665, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9339, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3075, "crosses_total": 1.1464, "crosses_accurate": 0.1422, "touches": 15.764, "possession_lost": 5.6961, "dispossessed": 0.5301, "duels_lost": 2.8363, "aerial_lost": 0.1602, "total_contest": 1.8914, "won_contest": 0.8219, "ball_recovery": 1.137, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.5898, "fouls_drawn": 0.3436, "assists": 0.0262, "assist_rate": 0.0262, "interceptions": 0.2071, "tackles_won": 0.4099, "tackles": 0.723, "clearances": 0.1929, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0189, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0671, "offsides": 0.1036, "ball_carries": 4.8724, "total_progression": 36.5842, "progressive_carries": 1.2559, "shots_off_target": 0.4824 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0019, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2448, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.0 to 19.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0445, "goals": 0.0652, "goal_rate": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.251, "total_shots": 0.6664, "expected_assists": 0.0325, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.6865, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0937, "accurate_pass": 5.294, "duels_won": 1.6697, "total_long_balls": 0.4801, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3156, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7092, "crosses_total": 0.9872, "crosses_accurate": 0.1224, "touches": 13.5744, "possession_lost": 4.9049, "dispossessed": 0.5301, "duels_lost": 2.4423, "aerial_lost": 0.1602, "total_contest": 1.6287, "won_contest": 0.7077, "ball_recovery": 0.9791, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.5079, "fouls_drawn": 0.2959, "assists": 0.0226, "assist_rate": 0.0226, "interceptions": 0.1783, "tackles_won": 0.353, "tackles": 0.6226, "clearances": 0.1661, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0163, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0578, "offsides": 0.1036, "ball_carries": 4.1956, "total_progression": 31.5026, "progressive_carries": 1.0815, "shots_off_target": 0.4154, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.97, "projection_minutes": 22.03, "minutes_scale": 0.8611, "appearance_probability": 0.739 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0445, "goals": 0.0652, "goal_rate": 0.0652, "shots_on_target": 0.251, "total_shots": 0.6664, "expected_assists": 0.0325, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.6865, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0937, "accurate_pass": 5.294, "duels_won": 1.6697, "total_long_balls": 0.4801, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3156, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7092, "crosses_total": 0.9872, "crosses_accurate": 0.1224, "touches": 13.5744, "possession_lost": 4.9049, "dispossessed": 0.5301, "duels_lost": 2.4423, "aerial_lost": 0.1602, "total_contest": 1.6287, "won_contest": 0.7077, "ball_recovery": 0.9791, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.5079, "fouls_drawn": 0.2959, "assists": 0.0226, "assist_rate": 0.0226, "interceptions": 0.1783, "tackles_won": 0.353, "tackles": 0.6226, "clearances": 0.1661, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0163, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0578, "offsides": 0.1036, "ball_carries": 4.1956, "total_progression": 31.5026, "progressive_carries": 1.0815, "shots_off_target": 0.4154, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3470, xG scale 0.9666, xA scale 1.0085, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.043, "goal_rate": 0.0652, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.251, "total_shots": 0.6664, "expected_assists": 0.0328, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.6865, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0937, "accurate_pass": 5.294, "duels_won": 1.6697, "total_long_balls": 0.4801, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3156, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7092, "crosses_total": 0.9872, "crosses_accurate": 0.1224, "touches": 13.5744, "possession_lost": 4.9049, "dispossessed": 0.5301, "duels_lost": 2.4423, "aerial_lost": 0.1602, "total_contest": 1.6287, "won_contest": 0.7077, "ball_recovery": 0.9791, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.5079, "fouls_drawn": 0.2959, "assist_rate": 0.0226, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1783, "tackles_won": 0.353, "tackles": 0.6226, "clearances": 0.1661, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0163, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0559, "offsides": 0.1036, "ball_carries": 4.1956, "total_progression": 31.5026, "progressive_carries": 1.0815, "shots_off_target": 0.4154, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.219, "creation_factor": 0.88 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.347, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8391, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9666, "xa_scale": 1.0085, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.739 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.043, "goal_rate": 0.0652, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.251, "total_shots": 0.6664, "expected_assists": 0.0328, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.6865, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0937, "accurate_pass": 5.294, "duels_won": 1.6697, "total_long_balls": 0.4801, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3156, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7092, "crosses_total": 0.9872, "crosses_accurate": 0.1224, "touches": 13.5744, "possession_lost": 4.9049, "dispossessed": 0.5301, "duels_lost": 2.4423, "aerial_lost": 0.1602, "total_contest": 1.6287, "won_contest": 0.7077, "ball_recovery": 0.9791, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.5079, "fouls_drawn": 0.2959, "assist_rate": 0.0226, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1783, "tackles_won": 0.353, "tackles": 0.6226, "clearances": 0.1661, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0163, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0559, "offsides": 0.1036, "ball_carries": 4.1956, "total_progression": 31.5026, "progressive_carries": 1.0815, "shots_off_target": 0.4154, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.219, "creation_factor": 0.88, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3248, "fifa_rank": 1766.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.043, "goal_rate": 0.0652, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.251, "total_shots": 0.6664, "expected_assists": 0.0328, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.6865, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0937, "accurate_pass": 5.294, "duels_won": 1.6697, "total_long_balls": 0.4801, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3156, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7092, "crosses_total": 0.9872, "crosses_accurate": 0.1224, "touches": 13.5744, "possession_lost": 4.9049, "dispossessed": 0.5301, "duels_lost": 2.4423, "aerial_lost": 0.1602, "total_contest": 1.6287, "won_contest": 0.7077, "ball_recovery": 0.9791, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.5079, "fouls_drawn": 0.2959, "assist_rate": 0.0226, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1783, "tackles_won": 0.353, "tackles": 0.6226, "clearances": 0.1661, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0163, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0559, "offsides": 0.1036, "ball_carries": 4.1956, "total_progression": 31.5026, "progressive_carries": 1.0815, "shots_off_target": 0.4154, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0311, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.219, "creation_factor": 0.88, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0311, "scorer_weight": 0.0387, "squad_weight_total": 1.4299, "weight_share": 0.0271, "finishing_factor": 1.219, "appearance_weight": 0.739, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.043, "goal_rate": 0.0652, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.251, "total_shots": 0.6664, "expected_assists": 0.0328, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.6865, "minutes": 18.97, "total_pass": 7.0937, "accurate_pass": 5.294, "duels_won": 1.6697, "total_long_balls": 0.4801, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3156, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7092, "crosses_total": 0.9872, "crosses_accurate": 0.1224, "touches": 13.5744, "possession_lost": 4.9049, "dispossessed": 0.5301, "duels_lost": 2.4423, "aerial_lost": 0.1602, "total_contest": 1.6287, "won_contest": 0.7077, "ball_recovery": 0.9791, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.5079, "fouls_drawn": 0.2959, "assist_rate": 0.0226, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1783, "tackles_won": 0.353, "tackles": 0.6226, "clearances": 0.1661, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0163, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0559, "offsides": 0.1036, "ball_carries": 4.1956, "total_progression": 31.5026, "progressive_carries": 1.0815, "shots_off_target": 0.4154, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.739, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.97, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0311, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0238, "finishing_factor": 1.219, "creation_factor": 0.88, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0238, "provider_weight": 0.0213, "squad_weight_total": 0.7437, "weight_share": 0.0287, "creation_factor": 0.88, "appearance_weight": 0.739, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Rodrigo Muniz": { "player_id": 1015256, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 184, "market_value": 22000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1144, "goal_rate": 0.116, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5372, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 3.1388, "dispossessed": 0.0531, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0265, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0796, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0067, "finishing_factor": 0.9857, "creation_factor": 0.8475, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.382, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0196, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1592, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1511, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7094, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 7, "duels_won": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023931, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.114, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025031, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3299, "combined_rank_score": 1249.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1800.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.5372, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Rodrigo Muniz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Michael Zetterer", "ranking": 3294 }, { "player_name": "Lukas Nmecha", "ranking": 3295 }, { "player_name": "Ruslan Malinovskyi", "ranking": 3296 }, { "player_name": "Ibrahim Mbaye", "ranking": 3297 }, { "player_name": "Unai Núñez", "ranking": 3298 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Raíllo", "ranking": 3300 }, { "player_name": "Gelson Martins", "ranking": 3301 }, { "player_name": "Abel Bretones", "ranking": 3302 }, { "player_name": "Chiquinho", "ranking": 3303 }, { "player_name": "Kaiki", "ranking": 3304 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.751, "history_matches": 25, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 25, "data_confidence": 0.751, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.736, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0073, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Fulham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 9.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (25 historical appearances) to 16.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.74); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 9.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1188, "goals": 0.1164, "goal_rate": 0.1164, "shots_on_target": 0.2724, "total_shots": 0.8335, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "key_pass": 0.2108, "rating": 6.5372, "minutes": 16.89, "total_pass": 3.1143, "accurate_pass": 1.6116, "duels_won": 2.9508, "total_long_balls": 0.0952, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0381, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4459, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2886, "crosses_total": 0.062, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9881, "possession_lost": 3.1496, "dispossessed": 0.0527, "duels_lost": 2.4128, "aerial_lost": 1.9013, "total_contest": 0.201, "won_contest": 0.062, "ball_recovery": 0.1632, "challenges_lost": 0.0729, "fouls": 0.2468, "fouls_drawn": 0.3888, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1587, "tackles": 0.264, "clearances": 0.6941, "blocks": 0.0761, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0275, "offsides": 0.0729, "ball_carries": 1.3109, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0405, "shots_off_target": 0.5611 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1526, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1297, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1103, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0937, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0797, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0677, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0576, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0489, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0416, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0354, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1456, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 4.0772, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 1.8167, "accuratePass": 2.4463, "totalShots": 1.1828 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.11878408491611481, "model_output": 0.1188, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0855 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0069 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0044 } ], "others": 0.0079, "total": 0.1188, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.561333 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.074431 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.06356 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.053049 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.040673 } ], "others_margin": 0.068811 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.11643125116825104, "model_output": 0.1164, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0731 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0088 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0071 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0071 } ], "others": -0.002, "total": 0.1164, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.444627 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.17563 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.077209 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.061873 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.061455 } ], "others_margin": -0.016125 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2724405527114868, "model_output": 0.2724, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2205 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0125, "total": 0.2724, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.52868 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.062142 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.0417 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.036313 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.035071 } ], "others_margin": -0.044775 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8335279226303101, "model_output": 0.8335, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5782 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0517 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.043 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0396 } ], "others": -0.0207, "total": 0.8335, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.578246 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.101968 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.051728 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.042966 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.039564 } ], "others_margin": -0.020575 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.009079675190150738, "model_output": 0.0091, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0039 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0023 } ], "others": -0.0125, "total": 0.0091, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.446917 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.302563 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.13641 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.103268 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.099821 } ], "others_margin": -0.868284 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.21082068979740143, "model_output": 0.2108, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2989 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0326 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0163 } ], "others": -0.0752, "total": 0.2108, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.586035 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.090828 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.063295 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.061477 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.055367 } ], "others_margin": -0.305186 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.53721809387207, "model_output": 6.5372, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0521 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0309 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0159 } ], "others": -0.1247, "total": 6.5372, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.052096 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.030914 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019484 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.018146 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.015947 } ], "others_margin": -0.124647 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0073, quality 0.650)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1197, "goals": 0.1173, "goal_rate": 0.1173, "shots_on_target": 0.2744, "total_shots": 0.8396, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "key_pass": 0.2124, "rating": 6.5372, "minutes": 16.89, "total_pass": 3.137, "accurate_pass": 1.6234, "duels_won": 2.9723, "total_long_balls": 0.0959, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0384, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.298, "crosses_total": 0.0625, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.0464, "possession_lost": 3.1726, "dispossessed": 0.0531, "duels_lost": 2.4304, "aerial_lost": 1.9152, "total_contest": 0.2025, "won_contest": 0.0625, "ball_recovery": 0.1644, "challenges_lost": 0.0734, "fouls": 0.2486, "fouls_drawn": 0.3916, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1599, "tackles": 0.2659, "clearances": 0.6992, "blocks": 0.0767, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0277, "offsides": 0.0734, "ball_carries": 1.3205, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0408, "shots_off_target": 0.5652 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 22000000, "quality_factor": 0.6503, "boost_factor": 1.0073, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0007)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1197, "goals": 0.1172, "goal_rate": 0.1172, "shots_on_target": 0.2756, "total_shots": 0.8404, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "key_pass": 0.2124, "rating": 6.5372, "minutes": 16.89, "total_pass": 3.137, "accurate_pass": 1.6234, "duels_won": 2.9723, "total_long_balls": 0.0959, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0384, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.298, "crosses_total": 0.0625, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.0464, "possession_lost": 3.1726, "dispossessed": 0.0531, "duels_lost": 2.4304, "aerial_lost": 1.9152, "total_contest": 0.2025, "won_contest": 0.0625, "ball_recovery": 0.1644, "challenges_lost": 0.0734, "fouls": 0.2484, "fouls_drawn": 0.3913, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1598, "tackles": 0.2659, "clearances": 0.6992, "blocks": 0.0767, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0277, "offsides": 0.0733, "ball_carries": 1.3205, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0408, "shots_off_target": 0.5652 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0007, "history_matches": 25, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1877, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.9 to 16.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1184, "goals": 0.116, "goal_rate": 0.116, "shots_on_target": 0.2727, "total_shots": 0.8319, "expected_assists": 0.009, "key_pass": 0.2101, "rating": 6.5372, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1036, "accurate_pass": 1.6061, "duels_won": 2.9406, "total_long_balls": 0.0949, "accurate_long_balls": 0.038, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2842, "crosses_total": 0.0618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9606, "possession_lost": 3.1388, "dispossessed": 0.0531, "duels_lost": 2.4045, "aerial_lost": 1.9152, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.0618, "ball_recovery": 0.1626, "challenges_lost": 0.0734, "fouls": 0.2458, "fouls_drawn": 0.3871, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1581, "tackles": 0.2631, "clearances": 0.6917, "blocks": 0.0759, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0274, "offsides": 0.0733, "ball_carries": 1.3064, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0404, "shots_off_target": 0.5592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 16.71, "projection_minutes": 16.89, "minutes_scale": 0.9893, "appearance_probability": 0.736 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1184, "goals": 0.116, "goal_rate": 0.116, "shots_on_target": 0.2727, "total_shots": 0.8319, "expected_assists": 0.009, "key_pass": 0.2101, "rating": 6.5372, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1036, "accurate_pass": 1.6061, "duels_won": 2.9406, "total_long_balls": 0.0949, "accurate_long_balls": 0.038, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2842, "crosses_total": 0.0618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9606, "possession_lost": 3.1388, "dispossessed": 0.0531, "duels_lost": 2.4045, "aerial_lost": 1.9152, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.0618, "ball_recovery": 0.1626, "challenges_lost": 0.0734, "fouls": 0.2458, "fouls_drawn": 0.3871, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1581, "tackles": 0.2631, "clearances": 0.6917, "blocks": 0.0759, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0274, "offsides": 0.0733, "ball_carries": 1.3064, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0404, "shots_off_target": 0.5592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3470, xG scale 0.9666, xA scale 1.0085, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1144, "goal_rate": 0.116, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2727, "total_shots": 0.8319, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "key_pass": 0.2101, "rating": 6.5372, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1036, "accurate_pass": 1.6061, "duels_won": 2.9406, "total_long_balls": 0.0949, "accurate_long_balls": 0.038, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2842, "crosses_total": 0.0618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9606, "possession_lost": 3.1388, "dispossessed": 0.0531, "duels_lost": 2.4045, "aerial_lost": 1.9152, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.0618, "ball_recovery": 0.1626, "challenges_lost": 0.0734, "fouls": 0.2458, "fouls_drawn": 0.3871, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1581, "tackles": 0.2631, "clearances": 0.6917, "blocks": 0.0759, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0265, "offsides": 0.0733, "ball_carries": 1.3064, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0404, "shots_off_target": 0.5592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9857, "creation_factor": 0.8475 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.347, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8391, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9666, "xa_scale": 1.0085, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.736 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1144, "goal_rate": 0.116, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2727, "total_shots": 0.8319, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "key_pass": 0.2101, "rating": 6.5372, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1036, "accurate_pass": 1.6061, "duels_won": 2.9406, "total_long_balls": 0.0949, "accurate_long_balls": 0.038, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2842, "crosses_total": 0.0618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9606, "possession_lost": 3.1388, "dispossessed": 0.0531, "duels_lost": 2.4045, "aerial_lost": 1.9152, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.0618, "ball_recovery": 0.1626, "challenges_lost": 0.0734, "fouls": 0.2458, "fouls_drawn": 0.3871, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1581, "tackles": 0.2631, "clearances": 0.6917, "blocks": 0.0759, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0265, "offsides": 0.0733, "ball_carries": 1.3064, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0404, "shots_off_target": 0.5592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9857, "creation_factor": 0.8475, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3299, "fifa_rank": 1800.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1144, "goal_rate": 0.116, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2727, "total_shots": 0.8319, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "key_pass": 0.2101, "rating": 6.5372, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1036, "accurate_pass": 1.6061, "duels_won": 2.9406, "total_long_balls": 0.0949, "accurate_long_balls": 0.038, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2842, "crosses_total": 0.0618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9606, "possession_lost": 3.1388, "dispossessed": 0.0531, "duels_lost": 2.4045, "aerial_lost": 1.9152, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.0618, "ball_recovery": 0.1626, "challenges_lost": 0.0734, "fouls": 0.2458, "fouls_drawn": 0.3871, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1581, "tackles": 0.2631, "clearances": 0.6917, "blocks": 0.0759, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0265, "offsides": 0.0733, "ball_carries": 1.3064, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0404, "shots_off_target": 0.5592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0796, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9857, "creation_factor": 0.8475, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0796, "scorer_weight": 0.083, "squad_weight_total": 1.4299, "weight_share": 0.058, "finishing_factor": 0.9857, "appearance_weight": 0.736, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1144, "goal_rate": 0.116, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2727, "total_shots": 0.8319, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "key_pass": 0.2101, "rating": 6.5372, "minutes": 16.71, "total_pass": 3.1036, "accurate_pass": 1.6061, "duels_won": 2.9406, "total_long_balls": 0.0949, "accurate_long_balls": 0.038, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2842, "crosses_total": 0.0618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9606, "possession_lost": 3.1388, "dispossessed": 0.0531, "duels_lost": 2.4045, "aerial_lost": 1.9152, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.0618, "ball_recovery": 0.1626, "challenges_lost": 0.0734, "fouls": 0.2458, "fouls_drawn": 0.3871, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1581, "tackles": 0.2631, "clearances": 0.6917, "blocks": 0.0759, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0265, "offsides": 0.0733, "ball_carries": 1.3064, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0404, "shots_off_target": 0.5592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.736, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0796, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0067, "finishing_factor": 0.9857, "creation_factor": 0.8475, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0067, "provider_weight": 0.0057, "squad_weight_total": 0.7437, "weight_share": 0.0076, "creation_factor": 0.8475, "appearance_weight": 0.736, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Emile Smith Rowe": { "player_id": 867445, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 32, "height": 182, "market_value": 18300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "assist_rate": 0.0363, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6861, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 2.5855, "dispossessed": 0.6454, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0275, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0257, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0184, "finishing_factor": 1.1369, "creation_factor": 1.1325, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0581, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0598, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0435, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 40, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0887, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023931, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0557, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025031, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024000, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2227, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3121, "combined_rank_score": 1081.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 744.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6676, "sofascore_appearances": 37.0, "fifa_rank": 1419.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6861, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Emile Smith Rowe", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Youri Baas", "ranking": 3116 }, { "player_name": "Martín Satriano", "ranking": 3117 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Leonardo", "ranking": 3118 }, { "player_name": "Chidera Ejuke", "ranking": 3119 }, { "player_name": "Adrián Martínez", "ranking": 3120 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Santiago Giménez", "ranking": 3122 }, { "player_name": "Mykola Shaparenko", "ranking": 3123 }, { "player_name": "Kostas Tsimikas", "ranking": 3124 }, { "player_name": "Kepa", "ranking": 3125 }, { "player_name": "Nahuel Molina", "ranking": 3126 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.752, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.752, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.706, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0036, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Fulham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 15.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (40 historical appearances) to 18.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.71); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 15.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3412, "expected_assists": 0.027, "assists": 0.0372, "assist_rate": 0.0372, "expected_goals": 0.0393, "goals": 0.0518, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "shots_on_target": 0.1788, "total_shots": 0.5935, "rating": 6.6861, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 11.4554, "accurate_pass": 10.2543, "duels_won": 0.6444, "total_long_balls": 0.2915, "accurate_long_balls": 0.133, "total_own_half_passes": 3.598, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.287, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9671, "crosses_total": 0.0679, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.649, "possession_lost": 2.653, "dispossessed": 0.6431, "duels_lost": 1.4486, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4648, "interceptions": 0.2558, "tackles_won": 0.2767, "tackles": 0.3932, "clearances": 0.0973, "total_contest": 0.4132, "won_contest": 0.1815, "challenges_lost": 0.0973, "fouls": 0.0118, "fouls_drawn": 0.0697, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1, "xgot": 0.0293, "ball_carries": 3.8819, "total_progression": 4.4493, "progressive_carries": 0.2436, "shots_off_target": 0.4147 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.7567, "creative_index": 0.1799, "expectedGoals": 0.065, "expectedAssists": 0.0173, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2416 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.34123748540878296, "model_output": 0.3412, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4184 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0488 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0418 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0292 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.017 } ], "others": 0.0102, "total": 0.3412, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.638901 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.110203 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.105088 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.080667 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.04999 } ], "others_margin": 0.030488 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.026951517909765244, "model_output": 0.027, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0354 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0066 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0023 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0071, "total": 0.027, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.532511 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.203328 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.17578 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.070416 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.05709 } ], "others_margin": -0.232726 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.037249594926834106, "model_output": 0.0372, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0026, "total": 0.0372, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.348067 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.151055 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.108491 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.082383 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.07097 } ], "others_margin": -0.066744 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03931741043925285, "model_output": 0.0393, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0423 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0028 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0025 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0025 } ], "others": -0.0121, "total": 0.0393, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.59482 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.058017 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.057927 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.052748 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.049794 } ], "others_margin": -0.267949 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.0518365241587162, "model_output": 0.0518, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0407 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0039 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0041 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0042 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.004 } ], "others": -0.0133, "total": 0.0518, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.540122 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.067074 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.065322 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.061944 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.059067 } ], "others_margin": -0.228398 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.17877404391765594, "model_output": 0.1788, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1479 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0049 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0047 } ], "others": -0.0043, "total": 0.1788, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.609649 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.076846 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.039333 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.026352 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.025255 } ], "others_margin": -0.023554 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5934514403343201, "model_output": 0.5935, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4104 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0515 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0491 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0242 } ], "others": 0.0145, "total": 0.5935, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.410438 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.051499 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.049126 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.025536 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.024225 } ], "others_margin": 0.014487 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.686083793640137, "model_output": 6.6861, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0886 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0314 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0078 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0069 } ], "others": -0.0184, "total": 6.6861, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.088605 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031414 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.023494 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.007818 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.006876 } ], "others_margin": -0.018333 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0036, quality 0.614)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3425, "expected_assists": 0.027, "assists": 0.0374, "assist_rate": 0.0374, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "goals": 0.052, "goal_rate": 0.052, "shots_on_target": 0.1794, "total_shots": 0.5956, "rating": 6.6861, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 11.4966, "accurate_pass": 10.2912, "duels_won": 0.6467, "total_long_balls": 0.2925, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1335, "total_own_half_passes": 3.611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2988, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8856, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9922, "crosses_total": 0.0681, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7053, "possession_lost": 2.6626, "dispossessed": 0.6454, "duels_lost": 1.4538, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4665, "interceptions": 0.2567, "tackles_won": 0.2777, "tackles": 0.3946, "clearances": 0.0977, "total_contest": 0.4147, "won_contest": 0.1822, "challenges_lost": 0.0977, "fouls": 0.0118, "fouls_drawn": 0.07, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1004, "xgot": 0.0294, "ball_carries": 3.8959, "total_progression": 4.4653, "progressive_carries": 0.2445, "shots_off_target": 0.4162 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18300000, "quality_factor": 0.614, "boost_factor": 1.0036, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0010)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3425, "expected_assists": 0.027, "assists": 0.0374, "assist_rate": 0.0374, "expected_goals": 0.0395, "goals": 0.052, "goal_rate": 0.052, "shots_on_target": 0.1792, "total_shots": 0.5962, "rating": 6.6861, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 11.4966, "accurate_pass": 10.2912, "duels_won": 0.6467, "total_long_balls": 0.2925, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1335, "total_own_half_passes": 3.611, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2988, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8856, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9922, "crosses_total": 0.068, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7053, "possession_lost": 2.6626, "dispossessed": 0.6454, "duels_lost": 1.4538, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4665, "interceptions": 0.2565, "tackles_won": 0.2774, "tackles": 0.3946, "clearances": 0.0977, "total_contest": 0.4147, "won_contest": 0.1822, "challenges_lost": 0.0977, "fouls": 0.0118, "fouls_drawn": 0.0699, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1004, "xgot": 0.0294, "ball_carries": 3.8959, "total_progression": 4.4653, "progressive_carries": 0.2445, "shots_off_target": 0.4162 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.001, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2111, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Fulham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 18.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3326, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "assists": 0.0363, "assist_rate": 0.0363, "expected_goals": 0.0384, "goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "shots_on_target": 0.174, "total_shots": 0.5789, "rating": 6.6861, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 11.1638, "accurate_pass": 9.9933, "duels_won": 0.628, "total_long_balls": 0.284, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1296, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2033, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7898, "crosses_total": 0.066, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2507, "possession_lost": 2.5855, "dispossessed": 0.6454, "duels_lost": 1.4117, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4665, "interceptions": 0.2491, "tackles_won": 0.2694, "tackles": 0.3832, "clearances": 0.0949, "total_contest": 0.4027, "won_contest": 0.1769, "challenges_lost": 0.0977, "fouls": 0.0115, "fouls_drawn": 0.0679, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0975, "xgot": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 3.7831, "total_progression": 4.336, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.4042, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.45, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 0.9711, "appearance_probability": 0.706 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3326, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "assists": 0.0363, "assist_rate": 0.0363, "expected_goals": 0.0384, "goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "shots_on_target": 0.174, "total_shots": 0.5789, "rating": 6.6861, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 11.1638, "accurate_pass": 9.9933, "duels_won": 0.628, "total_long_balls": 0.284, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1296, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2033, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7898, "crosses_total": 0.066, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2507, "possession_lost": 2.5855, "dispossessed": 0.6454, "duels_lost": 1.4117, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4665, "interceptions": 0.2491, "tackles_won": 0.2694, "tackles": 0.3832, "clearances": 0.0949, "total_contest": 0.4027, "won_contest": 0.1769, "challenges_lost": 0.0977, "fouls": 0.0115, "fouls_drawn": 0.0679, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0975, "xgot": 0.0285, "ball_carries": 3.7831, "total_progression": 4.336, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.4042, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3470, xG scale 0.9666, xA scale 1.0085, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3326, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "assist_rate": 0.0363, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.174, "total_shots": 0.5789, "rating": 6.6861, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 11.1638, "accurate_pass": 9.9933, "duels_won": 0.628, "total_long_balls": 0.284, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1296, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2033, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7898, "crosses_total": 0.066, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2507, "possession_lost": 2.5855, "dispossessed": 0.6454, "duels_lost": 1.4117, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4665, "interceptions": 0.2491, "tackles_won": 0.2694, "tackles": 0.3832, "clearances": 0.0949, "total_contest": 0.4027, "won_contest": 0.1769, "challenges_lost": 0.0977, "fouls": 0.0115, "fouls_drawn": 0.0679, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0975, "xgot": 0.0275, "ball_carries": 3.7831, "total_progression": 4.336, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.4042, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1369, "creation_factor": 1.1325 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.347, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8391, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9666, "xa_scale": 1.0085, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.706 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3326, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "assist_rate": 0.0363, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.174, "total_shots": 0.5789, "rating": 6.6861, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 11.1638, "accurate_pass": 9.9933, "duels_won": 0.628, "total_long_balls": 0.284, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1296, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2033, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7898, "crosses_total": 0.066, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2507, "possession_lost": 2.5855, "dispossessed": 0.6454, "duels_lost": 1.4117, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4665, "interceptions": 0.2491, "tackles_won": 0.2694, "tackles": 0.3832, "clearances": 0.0949, "total_contest": 0.4027, "won_contest": 0.1769, "challenges_lost": 0.0977, "fouls": 0.0115, "fouls_drawn": 0.0679, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0975, "xgot": 0.0275, "ball_carries": 3.7831, "total_progression": 4.336, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.4042, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1369, "creation_factor": 1.1325, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3121, "fifa_rank": 1419.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3326, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "assist_rate": 0.0363, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.174, "total_shots": 0.5789, "rating": 6.6861, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 11.1638, "accurate_pass": 9.9933, "duels_won": 0.628, "total_long_balls": 0.284, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1296, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2033, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7898, "crosses_total": 0.066, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2507, "possession_lost": 2.5855, "dispossessed": 0.6454, "duels_lost": 1.4117, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4665, "interceptions": 0.2491, "tackles_won": 0.2694, "tackles": 0.3832, "clearances": 0.0949, "total_contest": 0.4027, "won_contest": 0.1769, "challenges_lost": 0.0977, "fouls": 0.0115, "fouls_drawn": 0.0679, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0975, "xgot": 0.0275, "ball_carries": 3.7831, "total_progression": 4.336, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.4042, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0257, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1369, "creation_factor": 1.1325, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0257, "scorer_weight": 0.0298, "squad_weight_total": 1.4299, "weight_share": 0.0208, "finishing_factor": 1.1369, "appearance_weight": 0.706, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3326, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "assist_rate": 0.0363, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.174, "total_shots": 0.5789, "rating": 6.6861, "minutes": 18.45, "total_pass": 11.1638, "accurate_pass": 9.9933, "duels_won": 0.628, "total_long_balls": 0.284, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1296, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5065, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2033, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7898, "crosses_total": 0.066, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2507, "possession_lost": 2.5855, "dispossessed": 0.6454, "duels_lost": 1.4117, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4665, "interceptions": 0.2491, "tackles_won": 0.2694, "tackles": 0.3832, "clearances": 0.0949, "total_contest": 0.4027, "won_contest": 0.1769, "challenges_lost": 0.0977, "fouls": 0.0115, "fouls_drawn": 0.0679, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0975, "xgot": 0.0275, "ball_carries": 3.7831, "total_progression": 4.336, "progressive_carries": 0.2374, "shots_off_target": 0.4042, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.706, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0257, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0184, "finishing_factor": 1.1369, "creation_factor": 1.1325, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0184, "provider_weight": 0.0211, "squad_weight_total": 0.7437, "weight_share": 0.0284, "creation_factor": 1.1325, "appearance_weight": 0.706, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Hugo Larsson": { "player_id": 1142211, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 187, "market_value": 30000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "assist_rate": 0.0428, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 3.7398, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.549, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.08, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0269, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0209, "finishing_factor": 1.0961, "creation_factor": 1.0474, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1278, "expected_assists": 0.2213, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3138, "combined_rank_score": 1104.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1511.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6577, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Hugo Larsson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Robert Navarro", "ranking": 3133 }, { "player_name": "Luka Sučić", "ranking": 3134 }, { "player_name": "Che Adams", "ranking": 3135 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Vicente", "ranking": 3136 }, { "player_name": "Lautaro Di Lollo", "ranking": 3137 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kasper Dolberg", "ranking": 3139 }, { "player_name": "Matt Grimes", "ranking": 3140 }, { "player_name": "Sem Steijn", "ranking": 3141 }, { "player_name": "David Brooks", "ranking": 3142 }, { "player_name": "André Silva", "ranking": 3143 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.081594925726826, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5491634057148558, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0399, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (3 historical appearances) to 23.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.55)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2329, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "assists": 0.0274, "assist_rate": 0.0274, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "goals": 0.0397, "goal_rate": 0.0397, "shots_on_target": 0.1267, "total_shots": 0.3569, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 15.06, "total_pass": 8.0982, "accurate_pass": 5.7007, "duels_won": 0.2809, "total_long_balls": 0.3887, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3887, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9009, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1234, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1973, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5773, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.999, "possession_lost": 2.3975, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2809, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2809, "clearances": 0.7775, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2809, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2313, "total_progression": 15.1361, "progressive_carries": 0.3304, "shots_off_target": 0.2302 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.2809, "creative_index": 0.0385, "expectedGoals": 0.0359, "expectedAssists": 0.0641, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.23285126686096191, "model_output": 0.2329, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.45 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0442 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0367 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0194 } ], "others": -0.0809, "total": 0.2329, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.708886 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.106748 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.098318 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.064219 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.059952 } ], "others_margin": -0.298417 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.024701284244656563, "model_output": 0.0247, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0024 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.002 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0092, "total": 0.0247, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.613387 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.250641 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.068976 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.058155 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.053991 } ], "others_margin": -0.316013 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.027413491159677505, "model_output": 0.0274, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0038 } ], "others": -0.015, "total": 0.0274, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.267201 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.20756 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.1926 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.122762 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.093799 } ], "others_margin": -0.437989 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03332273289561272, "model_output": 0.0333, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0058 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0035 } ], "others": -0.0095, "total": 0.0333, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.583476 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.166467 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.122817 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.084778 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.079484 } ], "others_margin": -0.25021 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.03966290131211281, "model_output": 0.0397, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0451 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.0036 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.003 } ], "others": -0.0062, "total": 0.0397, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.618812 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.196315 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.09198 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.088401 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.067412 } ], "others_margin": -0.149629 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.12674649059772491, "model_output": 0.1267, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1342 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0529 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0055 } ], "others": -0.0076, "total": 0.1267, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.535039 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.326502 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.073016 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.052128 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.04006 } ], "others_margin": -0.057814 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3569229245185852, "model_output": 0.3569, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3421 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1882 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0301 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0203 } ], "others": -0.0302, "total": 0.3569, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.342052 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.188233 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.030055 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.022673 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.020251 } ], "others_margin": -0.030278 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.65774393081665, "model_output": 6.6577, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0715 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0473 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0288, "total": 6.6577, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.071515 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.047261 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017069 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014736 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01179 } ], "others_margin": -0.028755 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0399, quality 0.718)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2421, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "assists": 0.0285, "assist_rate": 0.0285, "expected_goals": 0.0347, "goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0.1318, "total_shots": 0.3712, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 15.06, "total_pass": 8.4213, "accurate_pass": 5.9282, "duels_won": 0.2921, "total_long_balls": 0.4042, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4042, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0166, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2081, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4047, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.72, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.398, "possession_lost": 2.4932, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2921, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2921, "clearances": 0.8085, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2921, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.3203, "total_progression": 15.74, "progressive_carries": 0.3436, "shots_off_target": 0.2394 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 30000000, "quality_factor": 0.7176, "boost_factor": 1.0399, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.1 to 23.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3632, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "assists": 0.0428, "assist_rate": 0.0428, "expected_goals": 0.052, "goals": 0.0618, "goal_rate": 0.0618, "shots_on_target": 0.1977, "total_shots": 0.5568, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 23.08, "total_pass": 12.6319, "accurate_pass": 8.8923, "duels_won": 0.4382, "total_long_balls": 0.6063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6063, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3121, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1071, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.58, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.597, "possession_lost": 3.7398, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4382, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4382, "clearances": 1.2127, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2921, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4805, "total_progression": 23.61, "progressive_carries": 0.5154, "shots_off_target": 0.3591, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.549, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.08 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.08, "projection_minutes": 15.06, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.549 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3632, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "assists": 0.0428, "assist_rate": 0.0428, "expected_goals": 0.052, "goals": 0.0618, "goal_rate": 0.0618, "shots_on_target": 0.1977, "total_shots": 0.5568, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 23.08, "total_pass": 12.6319, "accurate_pass": 8.8923, "duels_won": 0.4382, "total_long_balls": 0.6063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6063, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3121, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1071, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.58, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.597, "possession_lost": 3.7398, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4382, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4382, "clearances": 1.2127, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2921, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4805, "total_progression": 23.61, "progressive_carries": 0.5154, "shots_off_target": 0.3591, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.549, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.08 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.30 (squad xG sum 1.3470, xG scale 0.9666, xA scale 1.0085, team xA 0.85 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3632, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "assist_rate": 0.0428, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1977, "total_shots": 0.5568, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 23.08, "total_pass": 12.6319, "accurate_pass": 8.8923, "duels_won": 0.4382, "total_long_balls": 0.6063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6063, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3121, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1071, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.58, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.597, "possession_lost": 3.7398, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4382, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4382, "clearances": 1.2127, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2921, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4805, "total_progression": 23.61, "progressive_carries": 0.5154, "shots_off_target": 0.3591, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.549, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.08, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0961, "creation_factor": 1.0474 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.302, "squad_xg_sum": 1.347, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8391, "team_expected_assists": 0.8463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9666, "xa_scale": 1.0085, "opponent_lambda": 1.41, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.549 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3632, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "assist_rate": 0.0428, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1977, "total_shots": 0.5568, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 23.08, "total_pass": 12.6319, "accurate_pass": 8.8923, "duels_won": 0.4382, "total_long_balls": 0.6063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6063, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3121, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1071, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.58, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.597, "possession_lost": 3.7398, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4382, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4382, "clearances": 1.2127, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2921, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4805, "total_progression": 23.61, "progressive_carries": 0.5154, "shots_off_target": 0.3591, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.549, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.08, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0961, "creation_factor": 1.0474, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3138, "fifa_rank": 1511.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3632, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "assist_rate": 0.0428, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1977, "total_shots": 0.5568, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 23.08, "total_pass": 12.6319, "accurate_pass": 8.8923, "duels_won": 0.4382, "total_long_balls": 0.6063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6063, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3121, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1071, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.58, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.597, "possession_lost": 3.7398, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4382, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4382, "clearances": 1.2127, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2921, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4805, "total_progression": 23.61, "progressive_carries": 0.5154, "shots_off_target": 0.3591, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.549, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.08, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0269, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0961, "creation_factor": 1.0474, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0269, "scorer_weight": 0.0303, "squad_weight_total": 1.4299, "weight_share": 0.0212, "finishing_factor": 1.0961, "appearance_weight": 0.549, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3632, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "assist_rate": 0.0428, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1977, "total_shots": 0.5568, "rating": 6.6577, "minutes": 23.08, "total_pass": 12.6319, "accurate_pass": 8.8923, "duels_won": 0.4382, "total_long_balls": 0.6063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6063, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5249, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3121, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1071, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.58, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.597, "possession_lost": 3.7398, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4382, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4382, "clearances": 1.2127, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2921, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4805, "total_progression": 23.61, "progressive_carries": 0.5154, "shots_off_target": 0.3591, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.549, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.08, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.966, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0269, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0209, "finishing_factor": 1.0961, "creation_factor": 1.0474, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0209, "provider_weight": 0.0224, "squad_weight_total": 0.7437, "weight_share": 0.0301, "creation_factor": 1.0474, "appearance_weight": 0.549, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.3, "expected_assists": 0.85, "total_shots": 17, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 491, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 6.88, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Julio Enciso", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "David Affengruber" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.612, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "xg_contribution": 0.2219, "xg_multiplier": 0.9188, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "David Affengruber", "role": "RB", "market_value": 18100000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.575 } ], "duel_analysis": "Julio Enciso (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against David Affengruber in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.222 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Abdoul Ouattara", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 13800000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.566, "defenders": [ "Sander Berge", "Shea Charles" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.63, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.029, "xg_multiplier": 0.8715, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sander Berge", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Shea Charles", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 14500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abdoul Ouattara (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Sander Berge and Shea Charles in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.029 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jack Clarke", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Calvin Bassey", "Timothy Castagne" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.602, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1712, "xg_multiplier": 0.9712, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Calvin Bassey", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Timothy Castagne", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jack Clarke (ST) is evenly matched against Calvin Bassey and Timothy Castagne in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.171 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Emersonn", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7700000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.495, "defenders": [ "Calvin Bassey", "Timothy Castagne" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.602, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2981, "xg_multiplier": 0.9042, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Calvin Bassey", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Timothy Castagne", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Emersonn (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Calvin Bassey and Timothy Castagne in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.298 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 18800000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.619, "defenders": [ "Calvin Bassey", "Timothy Castagne" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.602, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1387, "xg_multiplier": 0.9568, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Calvin Bassey", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Timothy Castagne", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace (ST) is evenly matched against Calvin Bassey and Timothy Castagne in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.139 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Exequiel Palacios", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Sander Berge" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "xg_contribution": 0.0235, "xg_multiplier": 0.9118, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sander Berge", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.64 } ], "duel_analysis": "Exequiel Palacios (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Sander Berge in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.024 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Saša Lukić", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 9400000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.515, "defenders": [ "Sander Berge" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.288, "xg_contribution": 0.0406, "xg_multiplier": 0.8057, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sander Berge", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.712 } ], "duel_analysis": "Saša Lukić (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Sander Berge in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€9M vs €26M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.81 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.041 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Josh King", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Christian Walton" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.462, "xg_contribution": 0.1849, "xg_multiplier": 1.062, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Christian Walton", "role": "GK", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.538 } ], "duel_analysis": "Josh King (LW) is slightly favored against Christian Walton in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.185 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Gonzalo García", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Leif Davis", "Issa Diop" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.571, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.224, "xg_contribution": 0.388, "xg_multiplier": 1.0356, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leif Davis", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776 }, { "player": "Issa Diop", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8199999, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gonzalo García (ST) is evenly matched against Leif Davis and Issa Diop in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. The quality gap is significant (€31M vs €15M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.388 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Oscar Bobb", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Leif Davis", "Issa Diop" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.571, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0982, "xg_multiplier": 0.9682, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leif Davis", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Issa Diop", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8199999, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oscar Bobb (ST) is evenly matched against Leif Davis and Issa Diop in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.098 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Alex Iwobi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Leif Davis", "Issa Diop" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.571, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.19, "xg_contribution": 0.1224, "xg_multiplier": 0.9858, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leif Davis", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.81 }, { "player": "Issa Diop", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8199999, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.81 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alex Iwobi (ST) is evenly matched against Leif Davis and Issa Diop in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.122 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Sander Berge", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Exequiel Palacios" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.48, "xg_contribution": 0.0617, "xg_multiplier": 1.0882, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Exequiel Palacios", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.52 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sander Berge (CDM) is slightly favored against Exequiel Palacios in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.09 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.062 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Shea Charles", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 14500000, "attacker_height": 189, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.574, "defenders": [ "Exequiel Palacios" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.414, "xg_contribution": 0.035, "xg_multiplier": 0.9907, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Exequiel Palacios", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.586 } ], "duel_analysis": "Shea Charles (CDM) is evenly matched against Exequiel Palacios in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.634, "away_midfield_power": 0.648, "home_creative_power": 0.496, "away_creative_power": 0.583, "home_defensive_power": 0.569, "away_defensive_power": 0.609, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.494, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Exequiel Palacios", "Saša Lukić", "Julio Enciso", "Abdoul Ouattara" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Sander Berge", "Shea Charles", "Josh King" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.0, "home_throughball_threat": 2.1, "away_throughball_threat": 2.3, "key_personal_duel": "Exequiel Palacios vs Sander Berge", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.992, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.002 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.41, "away_lambda": 1.302, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Julio Enciso": { "opponents": [ "David Affengruber", "Sander Berge" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Abdoul Ouattara": { "opponents": [ "Sander Berge", "Shea Charles" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jack Clarke": { "opponents": [ "Calvin Bassey", "Timothy Castagne" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Emersonn": { "opponents": [ "Calvin Bassey", "Timothy Castagne" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jaden Philogene-Bidace": { "opponents": [ "Calvin Bassey", "Timothy Castagne" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Exequiel Palacios": { "opponents": [ "Sander Berge", "Shea Charles" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Saša Lukić": { "opponents": [ "Sander Berge", "Josh King" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Christian Walton": { "opponents": [ "Josh King" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Leif Davis": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García", "Oscar Bobb", "Alex Iwobi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Issa Diop": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García", "Oscar Bobb", "Alex Iwobi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dara O'Shea": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "David Affengruber": { "opponents": [ "Julio Enciso" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Sander Berge": { "opponents": [ "Abdoul Ouattara", "Exequiel Palacios", "Saša Lukić", "Julio Enciso" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Shea Charles": { "opponents": [ "Abdoul Ouattara", "Exequiel Palacios" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Calvin Bassey": { "opponents": [ "Jack Clarke", "Emersonn", "Jaden Philogene-Bidace" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Timothy Castagne": { "opponents": [ "Jack Clarke", "Emersonn", "Jaden Philogene-Bidace" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Josh King": { "opponents": [ "Christian Walton", "Saša Lukić" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gonzalo García": { "opponents": [ "Leif Davis", "Issa Diop" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Oscar Bobb": { "opponents": [ "Leif Davis", "Issa Diop" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alex Iwobi": { "opponents": [ "Leif Davis", "Issa Diop" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bernd Leno": { "opponents": [ "Jack Clarke", "Jaden Philogene-Bidace" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Ryan Sessegnon": { "opponents": [ "Emersonn" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Exequiel Palacios vs Sander Berge will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.92, Away: 0.89. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.998, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1309, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0101, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9512, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9675, "home_midfield_factor": 0.992, "away_midfield_factor": 1.002, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5933, "away_avg_quality": 0.6462, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0529, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.2677, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.2098, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.1737, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.081, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0446, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0259, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.923, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0547 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.992, "result": 1.0463 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0463 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.2033 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0204, "result": 1.2278 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.998, "result": 1.2253 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9512, "result": 1.1655 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1309, "result": 1.2964 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.2964, "result": 1.2964, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.081, "factor": 0.9741, "pre": 1.2964, "result": 1.2628 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.2628 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1542, "result": 1.4172 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 1.3793, "result": 1.4099 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.4099, "result": 1.41, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.41, "result": 1.41, "available": false }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.41 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.41 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.41, "result": 1.41, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.41 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8902, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0301 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.002, "result": 1.0322 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0322 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0322 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0229, "result": 1.0558 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.0671 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9675, "result": 1.0324 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0101, "result": 1.0425 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0425, "result": 1.0425, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.081, "factor": 1.0446, "pre": 1.0425, "result": 1.089 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.089 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1942, "result": 1.2832 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 1.3793, "result": 1.3017 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.3017, "result": 1.302, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.302, "result": 1.302, "available": false }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.302 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.302 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.302, "result": 1.302, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.302 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1542, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1942, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Ipswich Town", "away_squad": "Fulham", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.41, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.302, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.4099, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.3017, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.41, "final_away_lambda": 1.302 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 11, "opponent_position": 19, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0204, "attack_index": 1.06, "defense_concede_index": 0.982, "form_multiplier": 1.021, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.49, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.38, "team_ppg": 1.28, "opponent_ppg": 0.91 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 19, "opponent_position": 11, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0229, "attack_index": 0.864, "defense_concede_index": 1.238, "form_multiplier": 0.979, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.22, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.74, "team_ppg": 0.91, "opponent_ppg": 1.28 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Ipswich vs Fulham. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.410, Away 1.302). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.410, Away 1.302 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Ipswich Town", "away_squad": "Fulham", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.41, "away_lambda": 1.302, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.41, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.302 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-10T13:31:58Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }