{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Barcelona", "away_team": "Getafe", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261010", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "3-0", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0866, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Barcelona", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.0815, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0866 }, { "score": "4-0", "probability": 0.081 }, { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.076 }, { "score": "4-1", "probability": 0.071 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0695 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.01, "0-1": 0.0086, "0-2": 0.0038, "0-3": 0.0011, "1-0": 0.0371, "1-1": 0.0327, "1-2": 0.0143, "1-3": 0.0042, "1-4": 0.0009, "2-0": 0.0695, "2-1": 0.061, "2-2": 0.0267, "2-3": 0.0078, "2-4": 0.0017, "3-0": 0.0866, "3-1": 0.076, "3-2": 0.0333, "3-3": 0.0097, "3-4": 0.0021, "4-0": 0.081, "4-1": 0.071, "4-2": 0.0311, "4-3": 0.0091, "4-4": 0.002, "5-0": 0.0606, "5-1": 0.0531, "5-2": 0.0233, "5-3": 0.0068, "5-4": 0.0015, "6-0": 0.0377, "6-1": 0.0331, "6-2": 0.0145, "6-3": 0.0042, "6-4": 0.0009, "7-0": 0.0202, "7-1": 0.0177, "7-2": 0.0078, "7-3": 0.0023, "8-0": 0.0094, "8-1": 0.0083, "8-2": 0.0036, "8-3": 0.0011, "9-0": 0.0039, "9-1": 0.0034, "9-2": 0.0015 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.8721, "draw": 0.0815, "away_win": 0.0463 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.8382, "under_2_5_goals": 0.1618, "btts_yes": 0.5701, "btts_no": 0.4299, "home_clean_sheet": 0.416, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0239 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.05, "MCR": 7.29, "ATR": 7.45, "GK": 7.08 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.77, "MCR": 6.75, "ATR": 6.73, "GK": 7.1 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Barcelona vs Getafe. Most likely scoreline: 3-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Karim Adeyemi, Lamine Yamal (2)", "tactical_analysis": "4-3-3 creates structural superiority against 3-5-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Pedri vs Mario Martín). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.94, Away: 0.66. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.85, "home_lambda": 3.739, "away_lambda": 0.877, "h2h": { "available": false, "meetings": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_wins": 0, "draws": 0, "home_multiplier": 1.0, "away_multiplier": 1.0 }, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.8721, "draw": 0.0815, "away_win": 0.0463 }, "favorite": "Barcelona", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8721, "fair_spread": 2.862, "fair_total": 4.616, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Barcelona", "estimate": 3.739, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Getafe", "estimate": 0.877, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.8382, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5701, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Barcelona", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.416, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Getafe", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0239, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)", "estimate": 1.4099, "probability": 0.7558, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Enes Ünal (Getafe)", "estimate": 0.1692, "probability": 0.1557, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)", "estimate": 0.5159, "probability": 0.403, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Johan Mojica (Getafe)", "estimate": 0.1312, "probability": 0.123, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 4.616, "expected_total_shots": 34, "expected_total_passes": 946, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.9, "possession_home_pct": 53.8, "possession_away_pct": 46.2, "notes": "Barcelona projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Barcelona", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8721, "script": "Barcelona is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +2.86 goals and fair total 4.62.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 17 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Getafe must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Barcelona lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Barcelona chance creation leans on Lamine Yamal against Ramón Terrats in Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank; Barcelona projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Barcelona: starters carry the main goal usage through Karim Adeyemi, Lamine Yamal (2); bench watchlist: Ferran Torres, Dani Olmo.", "Getafe: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Christantus Uche, Mauro Arambarri, Veljko Birmančević.", "Assist usage should flow through Lamine Yamal, Pedri; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Barcelona tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 17 total first-half shots, and 2.31 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Getafe is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Barcelona.", "Getafe wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Barcelona": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Karim Adeyemi": { "player_id": 940054, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 180, "market_value": 41000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.6974, "goal_rate": 0.4607, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.2438, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.2055, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 6.0108, "dispossessed": 0.5878, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.3237, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.7254, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 58, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1444, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.518, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "David Soria", "opponent_faced": "David Soria", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.5021, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2164, "finishing_factor": 1.0813, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416349, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3701, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 1.8305, "expected_assists": 0.5412, "total_shots": 8, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 7, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.648, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3099, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5525, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5198, "expected_assists": 0.051, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 927, "combined_rank_score": 430.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 416.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.2055, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Karim Adeyemi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Joaquín Montecinos", "ranking": 922 }, { "player_name": "Sang-jun Lee", "ranking": 923 }, { "player_name": "Ju-an You", "ranking": 924 }, { "player_name": "Julián Brea", "ranking": 925 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Zalazar", "ranking": 926 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Marlon Maranhão", "ranking": 928 }, { "player_name": "Islom Kenzhaboev", "ranking": 929 }, { "player_name": "Isco", "ranking": 930 }, { "player_name": "Karim Benzema", "ranking": 931 }, { "player_name": "Julen Agirrezabala", "ranking": 932 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.698, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.698, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0351, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 89.0, "goals_per90": 1.0, "assists_per90": 1.0, "shots_per90": 3.03, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 7 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Barcelona, rel: 0.07, gls/90: 1.0, ast/90: 1.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3565, "goals": 0.3804, "goal_rate": 0.3804, "shots_on_target": 1.1043, "total_shots": 2.7709, "expected_assists": 0.1131, "key_pass": 1.4126, "rating": 7.2055, "minutes": 79.26, "total_pass": 15.5143, "accurate_pass": 12.9023, "duels_won": 4.1626, "total_long_balls": 0.0833, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0833, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6516, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5102, "crosses_total": 0.8536, "crosses_accurate": 0.1877, "touches": 27.6054, "possession_lost": 5.807, "dispossessed": 0.5679, "duels_lost": 2.7194, "aerial_lost": 0.3753, "total_contest": 2.9439, "won_contest": 1.9439, "ball_recovery": 1.6354, "challenges_lost": 0.3029, "fouls": 0.4733, "fouls_drawn": 1.4091, "assists": 0.3029, "assist_rate": 0.3029, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.319, "clearances": 0.1595, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.563, "big_chances_missed": 0.997, "xgot": 0.3708, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.7849, "total_progression": 56.1477, "progressive_carries": 3.5765, "shots_off_target": 1.6666 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", 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}, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.069121 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.053082 } ], "others_margin": 0.279261 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.205503940582275, "model_output": 7.2055, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0867 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0746 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0572 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0508 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0464 } ], "others": 0.1276, "total": 7.2055, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.086679 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0148, quality 0.900)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.6484, "goals": 0.7962, "goal_rate": 0.7962, "shots_on_target": 1.7048, "total_shots": 5.0811, "expected_assists": 0.2476, "key_pass": 3.3299, "rating": 8.378, "minutes": 82.63, "total_pass": 49.5493, "accurate_pass": 40.3123, "duels_won": 6.8221, "total_long_balls": 2.0801, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9369, "total_opp_half_passes": 40.7858, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.2419, "crosses_total": 2.6881, "crosses_accurate": 0.6805, "touches": 75.9962, "possession_lost": 18.987, "dispossessed": 1.5307, "duels_lost": 6.474, "aerial_lost": 0.0195, "total_contest": 7.6413, "won_contest": 4.5403, "ball_recovery": 2.5973, "challenges_lost": 0.73, "fouls": 1.2032, "fouls_drawn": 1.7412, "assists": 0.6874, "assist_rate": 0.6874, "interceptions": 0.2533, 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"season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 6, "combined_rank_score": 12.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 12.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.425, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 12.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.2363, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking": 1 }, { "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking": 2 }, { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 3 }, { "player_name": "Mariano Díaz", "ranking": 4 }, { "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking": 5 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 7 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Fernandes", "ranking": 8 }, { "player_name": "Felix Horn 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"role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.900)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.3092, "expected_assists": 0.1821, "assists": 0.2003, "assist_rate": 0.2003, "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goals": 0.0938, "goal_rate": 0.0938, "shots_on_target": 0.2553, "total_shots": 1.0165, "rating": 7.2363, "minutes": 79.77, "total_pass": 69.8295, "accurate_pass": 64.6939, "duels_won": 3.4387, "total_long_balls": 3.7406, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7746, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9735, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.6871, "total_opp_half_passes": 44.856, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 41.0067, "crosses_total": 1.2478, "crosses_accurate": 0.4416, "touches": 83.1546, "possession_lost": 8.7603, "dispossessed": 0.7684, "duels_lost": 3.2706, "aerial_won": 0.1272, "aerial_lost": 0.0087, "interceptions": 0.3799, "tackles_won": 0.9161, "tackles": 1.4954, "clearances": 0.7499, "total_contest": 1.4806, "won_contest": 0.8099, "challenges_lost": 1.599, "fouls": 0.2239, "fouls_drawn": 1.0062, "blocks": 0.0181, "big_chances_created": 0.1251, "big_chances_missed": 0.0311, "xgot": 0.0671, "ball_carries": 29.3318, "total_progression": 93.8408, "progressive_carries": 1.9081, "shots_off_target": 0.7612 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 164000000, "quality_factor": 0.8997, "boost_factor": 1.0144, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0122)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.3092, "expected_assists": 0.1821, "assists": 0.2025, "assist_rate": 0.2025, "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goals": 0.0927, "goal_rate": 0.0927, "shots_on_target": 0.2522, "total_shots": 1.0135, "rating": 7.2363, "minutes": 79.77, "total_pass": 69.8295, "accurate_pass": 64.6939, "duels_won": 3.4387, "total_long_balls": 3.7406, "accurate_long_balls": 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0.679295539855957, "model_output": 0.6793, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0646 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0631 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0287 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0156 } ], "others": 0.0197, "total": 0.6793, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.064551 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.063054 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.028745 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.016546 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.015634 } ], "others_margin": 0.019634 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.863891124725342, "model_output": 6.8639, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0509 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0094, "total": 6.8639, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.050893 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.026957 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.015996 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.014434 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.011872 } ], "others_margin": -0.009399 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9958, quality 0.466)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9635, "tackles": 2.3731, "tackles_won": 1.3273, "clearances": 2.4662, "aerial_won": 0.9512, "total_shots": 0.6765, "rating": 6.8639, "minutes": 88.19, "total_pass": 49.6813, "accurate_pass": 43.3004, "duels_won": 7.1595, "total_long_balls": 2.7966, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0623, "total_own_half_passes": 24.3683, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.9643, "crosses_total": 0.6411, "crosses_accurate": 0.1473, "touches": 75.011, "possession_lost": 10.8685, "dispossessed": 0.4925, "duels_lost": 3.8452, "aerial_lost": 0.8041, "total_contest": 1.6586, "won_contest": 1.0617, "ball_recovery": 5.1664, "challenges_lost": 0.6087, "fouls": 1.5469, "fouls_drawn": 0.9721, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.2398, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0079, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1039, "tackles": 1.1784, "tackles_won": 0.6792, "clearances": 5.0113, "aerial_won": 1.7369, "total_shots": 0.3543, "rating": 7.1254, "minutes": 82.46, "total_pass": 76.8303, "accurate_pass": 71.924, "duels_won": 2.5479, "total_long_balls": 3.6767, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5819, "total_own_half_passes": 44.3222, "accurate_own_half_passes": 42.4302, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.4939, "crosses_total": 0.1576, "crosses_accurate": 0.028, "touches": 88.2721, "possession_lost": 5.6409, "dispossessed": 0.0596, "duels_lost": 2.1225, "aerial_lost": 1.0571, "total_contest": 0.216, "won_contest": 0.2101, "ball_recovery": 2.2686, "challenges_lost": 0.1981, "fouls": 0.8691, "fouls_drawn": 0.3734, "blocks": 0.4211, "goals": 0.0, 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"affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1191, "fifa_rank": 942.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1066, "tackles": 1.1784, "tackles_won": 0.677, "clearances": 5.0113, "aerial_won": 1.7369, "total_shots": 0.3553, "rating": 7.1254, "minutes": 82.46, "total_pass": 76.8303, "accurate_pass": 71.924, "duels_won": 2.5479, "total_long_balls": 3.6767, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5819, "total_own_half_passes": 44.3222, "accurate_own_half_passes": 42.4302, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.4939, "crosses_total": 0.156, "crosses_accurate": 0.028, "touches": 88.2721, "possession_lost": 5.6409, "dispossessed": 0.0596, "duels_lost": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0141, quality 0.891)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1487, "tackles": 1.2012, "tackles_won": 0.7334, "clearances": 5.4181, "aerial_won": 2.7101, "total_shots": 0.4521, "rating": 7.2276, "minutes": 85.24, "total_pass": 94.5466, "accurate_pass": 89.6734, "duels_won": 4.4496, "total_long_balls": 4.8602, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6712, "total_own_half_passes": 56.7639, "accurate_own_half_passes": 54.7449, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.7826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.9284, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 106.196, "possession_lost": 5.6882, "dispossessed": 0.0672, "duels_lost": 2.288, "aerial_lost": 1.3363, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "ball_recovery": 3.0631, "challenges_lost": 0.272, "fouls": 0.6276, "fouls_drawn": 0.238, "blocks": 0.3476, "goals": 0.0114, "goal_rate": 0.0114, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0427, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "shots_on_target": 0.021, "big_chances_created": 0.001, "xgot": 0.0048, "ball_carries": 33.271, "total_progression": 143.1511, "progressive_carries": 1.2637, "key_pass": 0.0355, "shots_off_target": 0.4311 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 94000000, "quality_factor": 0.891, "boost_factor": 1.0141, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0106)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1416, "tackles": 1.2012, "tackles_won": 0.7407, "clearances": 5.4181, "aerial_won": 2.7101, "total_shots": 0.4573, "rating": 7.2276, "minutes": 85.24, "total_pass": 94.5466, "accurate_pass": 89.6734, "duels_won": 4.4496, "total_long_balls": 4.8602, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6712, "total_own_half_passes": 56.7639, "accurate_own_half_passes": 54.7449, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.7826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.9284, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 106.196, "possession_lost": 5.6882, "dispossessed": 0.0672, "duels_lost": 2.288, "aerial_lost": 1.3363, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "ball_recovery": 3.0631, "challenges_lost": 0.272, "fouls": 0.626, "fouls_drawn": 0.2405, "blocks": 0.3476, "goals": 0.0113, "goal_rate": 0.0113, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0427, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "shots_on_target": 0.0208, "big_chances_created": 0.001, "xgot": 0.0048, "ball_carries": 33.271, "total_progression": 143.1511, "progressive_carries": 1.2637, "key_pass": 0.0355, "shots_off_target": 0.4311 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0106, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9471, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7334, "after": 0.7407 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1487, "after": 1.1416 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.4521, "after": 0.4573 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1416, "tackles": 1.2012, "tackles_won": 0.7407, "clearances": 5.4181, "aerial_won": 2.7101, "total_shots": 0.4573, "rating": 7.2276, "minutes": 85.24, "total_pass": 94.5466, "accurate_pass": 89.6734, "duels_won": 4.4496, "total_long_balls": 4.8602, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6712, "total_own_half_passes": 56.7639, "accurate_own_half_passes": 54.7449, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.7826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.9284, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 106.196, "possession_lost": 5.6882, "dispossessed": 0.0672, "duels_lost": 2.288, "aerial_lost": 1.3363, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "ball_recovery": 3.0631, "challenges_lost": 0.272, "fouls": 0.626, "fouls_drawn": 0.2405, "blocks": 0.3476, "goals": 0.0113, "goal_rate": 0.0113, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0427, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "shots_on_target": 0.0208, "big_chances_created": 0.001, "xgot": 0.0048, "ball_carries": 33.271, "total_progression": 143.1511, "progressive_carries": 1.2637, "key_pass": 0.0355, "shots_off_target": 0.4311 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1416, "tackles": 1.2012, "tackles_won": 0.7407, "clearances": 5.4181, "aerial_won": 2.7101, "total_shots": 0.4573, "rating": 7.2276, "minutes": 85.24, "total_pass": 94.5466, "accurate_pass": 89.6734, "duels_won": 4.4496, "total_long_balls": 4.8602, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6712, "total_own_half_passes": 56.7639, "accurate_own_half_passes": 54.7449, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.7826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.9284, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 106.196, "possession_lost": 5.6882, "dispossessed": 0.0672, "duels_lost": 2.288, "aerial_lost": 1.3363, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "ball_recovery": 3.0631, "challenges_lost": 0.272, "fouls": 0.626, "fouls_drawn": 0.2405, "blocks": 0.3476, "goals": 0.0113, "goal_rate": 0.0113, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0427, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "shots_on_target": 0.0208, "big_chances_created": 0.001, "xgot": 0.0048, "ball_carries": 33.271, "total_progression": 143.1511, "progressive_carries": 1.2637, "key_pass": 0.0355, "shots_off_target": 0.4311, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Enes Ünal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Enes Ünal", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.74 (squad xG sum 2.2639, xG scale 1.6515, xA scale 2.0838, team xA 2.43 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1416, "tackles": 1.2012, "tackles_won": 0.7407, "clearances": 5.4181, "aerial_won": 2.7101, "total_shots": 0.4573, "rating": 7.2276, "minutes": 85.24, "total_pass": 94.5466, "accurate_pass": 89.6734, "duels_won": 4.4496, "total_long_balls": 4.8602, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6712, "total_own_half_passes": 56.7639, "accurate_own_half_passes": 54.7449, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.7826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.9284, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 106.196, "possession_lost": 5.6882, "dispossessed": 0.0672, "duels_lost": 2.288, "aerial_lost": 1.3363, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "ball_recovery": 3.0631, "challenges_lost": 0.272, "fouls": 0.626, "fouls_drawn": 0.2405, "blocks": 0.3476, "goal_rate": 0.0113, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0705, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "shots_on_target": 0.0208, "big_chances_created": 0.001, "xgot": 0.0079, "ball_carries": 33.271, "total_progression": 143.1511, "progressive_carries": 1.2637, "key_pass": 0.0355, "shots_off_target": 0.4311, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Enes Ünal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.739, "squad_xg_sum": 2.2639, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1663, "team_expected_assists": 2.4303, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6515, "xa_scale": 2.0838, "opponent_lambda": 0.877, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0427, "after": 0.0705 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0202, "after": 0.0421 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1416, "tackles": 1.2012, "tackles_won": 0.7407, "clearances": 5.4181, "aerial_won": 2.7101, "total_shots": 0.4573, "rating": 7.2276, "minutes": 85.24, "total_pass": 94.5466, "accurate_pass": 89.6734, "duels_won": 4.4496, "total_long_balls": 4.8602, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6712, "total_own_half_passes": 56.7639, "accurate_own_half_passes": 54.7449, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.7826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.9284, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 106.196, "possession_lost": 5.6882, "dispossessed": 0.0672, "duels_lost": 2.288, "aerial_lost": 1.3363, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "ball_recovery": 3.0631, "challenges_lost": 0.272, "fouls": 0.626, "fouls_drawn": 0.2405, "blocks": 0.3476, "goal_rate": 0.0113, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0705, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "shots_on_target": 0.0208, "big_chances_created": 0.001, "xgot": 0.0079, "ball_carries": 33.271, "total_progression": 143.1511, "progressive_carries": 1.2637, "key_pass": 0.0355, "shots_off_target": 0.4311, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Enes Ünal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 57, "fifa_rank": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1416, "tackles": 1.2012, "tackles_won": 0.7407, "clearances": 5.4181, "aerial_won": 2.7101, "total_shots": 0.4573, "rating": 7.2276, "minutes": 85.24, "total_pass": 94.5466, "accurate_pass": 89.6734, "duels_won": 4.4496, "total_long_balls": 4.8602, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6712, "total_own_half_passes": 56.7639, "accurate_own_half_passes": 54.7449, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.7826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.9284, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 106.196, "possession_lost": 5.6882, "dispossessed": 0.0672, "duels_lost": 2.288, "aerial_lost": 1.3363, "total_contest": 0.001, "won_contest": 0.001, "ball_recovery": 3.0631, "challenges_lost": 0.272, "fouls": 0.626, "fouls_drawn": 0.2405, "blocks": 0.3476, "goal_rate": 0.0113, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0705, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "shots_on_target": 0.0208, "big_chances_created": 0.001, "xgot": 0.0079, "ball_carries": 33.271, "total_progression": 143.1511, "progressive_carries": 1.2637, "key_pass": 0.0355, "shots_off_target": 0.4311, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, 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0.7541 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Karim Adeyemi", "weight": 0.7541, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7541, "runner_up": "Lamine Yamal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.7276 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.7099, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.7276, "runner_up": "Gabriel Jesus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5055 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1416, "tackles": 1.2012, "tackles_won": 0.7407, "clearances": 5.4181, "aerial_won": 2.7101, "total_shots": 0.4573, "rating": 7.2276, "minutes": 85.24, "total_pass": 94.5466, "accurate_pass": 89.6734, "duels_won": 4.4496, "total_long_balls": 4.8602, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6712, "total_own_half_passes": 56.7639, "accurate_own_half_passes": 54.7449, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.7826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.9284, 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"antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0681, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0412, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0412, "provider_weight": 0.0337, "squad_weight_total": 2.5895, "weight_share": 0.013, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.6449, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6449, "runner_up": "Pedri", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4129 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedri", "weight": 0.4129, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4129, "runner_up": "Fermín López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.353, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lamine Yamal" ] } ] } } ] }, "Eric García": { "player_id": 876214, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, 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"importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1243 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.1059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0785 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0452 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0301 } ], "others": 0.1633, "total": 0.8713, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.324779 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.211992 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132446 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.068946 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.04343 } ], "others_margin": 0.207697 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.096231698989868, "model_output": 2.0962, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.5508 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.179 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.104 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0961 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0464 } ], "others": 0.1294, "total": 2.0962, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.550845 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.178994 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.103983 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.096078 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.046395 } ], "others_margin": 0.129471 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.14022159576416, "model_output": 7.1402, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1362 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0736 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0285 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.024 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0193 } ], "others": 0.0963, "total": 7.1402, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.136225 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.073594 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028463 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.024007 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.019326 } ], "others_margin": 0.096398 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 24, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0143, quality 0.896)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7403, "expected_assists": 0.1781, "assists": 0.1691, "assist_rate": 0.1691, "expected_goals": 0.2386, "goals": 0.2234, "goal_rate": 0.2234, "shots_on_target": 0.8838, "total_shots": 2.1262, "rating": 7.1402, "minutes": 79.92, "total_pass": 38.645, "accurate_pass": 32.7625, "duels_won": 4.7021, "total_long_balls": 2.2022, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9198, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5992, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1175, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.0458, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.645, "crosses_total": 1.4935, "crosses_accurate": 0.3709, "touches": 56.6758, "possession_lost": 12.9788, "dispossessed": 1.5316, "duels_lost": 6.3429, "aerial_won": 0.5714, "aerial_lost": 0.633, "interceptions": 0.3629, "tackles_won": 0.6874, "tackles": 1.5371, "clearances": 0.4201, "total_contest": 2.8486, "won_contest": 1.6168, "challenges_lost": 1.1712, "fouls": 1.8367, "fouls_drawn": 0.9768, "blocks": 0.1434, "big_chances_created": 0.4999, "big_chances_missed": 0.2213, "xgot": 0.5662, "ball_carries": 14.3964, "total_progression": 50.2837, "progressive_carries": 2.0129, "shots_off_target": 1.2424 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 113000000, "quality_factor": 0.8965, "boost_factor": 1.0143, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0122)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7403, "expected_assists": 0.1781, "assists": 0.167, "assist_rate": 0.167, "expected_goals": 0.2386, "goals": 0.2348, "goal_rate": 0.2348, "shots_on_target": 0.8965, "total_shots": 2.1285, "rating": 7.1402, "minutes": 79.92, "total_pass": 38.645, "accurate_pass": 32.7625, "duels_won": 4.7021, "total_long_balls": 2.2022, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9198, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5992, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1175, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.0458, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.645, "crosses_total": 1.4894, "crosses_accurate": 0.3709, "touches": 56.6758, "possession_lost": 12.9788, "dispossessed": 1.5316, "duels_lost": 6.3429, "aerial_won": 0.5714, "aerial_lost": 0.633, "interceptions": 0.3632, "tackles_won": 0.6931, "tackles": 1.5371, "clearances": 0.4201, "total_contest": 2.8486, "won_contest": 1.6168, "challenges_lost": 1.1712, "fouls": 1.8331, "fouls_drawn": 0.9837, "blocks": 0.1434, "big_chances_created": 0.4999, "big_chances_missed": 0.2213, "xgot": 0.5662, "ball_carries": 14.3964, "total_progression": 50.2837, "progressive_carries": 2.0129, "shots_off_target": 1.2424 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0122, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.888, "prior_reliability": 0.1533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": 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"wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 34, "data_confidence": 0.762, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 12.91, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.508, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0137, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 11.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.08 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (34 historical appearances) to 12.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.51); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 11.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3011, "tackles": 0.5945, "tackles_won": 0.409, "clearances": 0.8297, "aerial_won": 0.3403, "total_shots": 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0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7356 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0176 } ], "others": -0.0232, "total": 0.5945, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.750192 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.034301 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.031543 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.030392 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.028133 } ], "others_margin": -0.038363 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.40899035334587097, "model_output": 0.409, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4082 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0274 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": 0.0021, "total": 0.409, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.649692 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.063316 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.032505 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.026649 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.022871 } ], "others_margin": 0.005083 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.8297352194786072, "model_output": 0.8297, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1059 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2523 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0727 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.05 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0303 } ], "others": -0.1105, "total": 0.8297, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.942045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.207705 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.068782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.050236 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.031697 } ], "others_margin": -0.124966 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.34027907252311707, "model_output": 0.3403, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7935 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1643 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0338 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0258, "total": 0.3403, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.853738 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.327292 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.083134 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.033399 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.031007 } ], "others_margin": -0.072972 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.11583872139453888, "model_output": 0.1158, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2233 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0651 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0334, "total": 0.1158, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.223287 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.065143 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.013892 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.01146 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008125 } ], "others_margin": -0.033387 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8989434242248535, "model_output": 6.8989, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0601 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0461 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0431 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0215 } ], "others": 0.0076, "total": 6.8989, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.060058 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.046076 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.043143 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.021597 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.021466 } ], "others_margin": 0.007756 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0137, quality 0.861)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3052, "tackles": 0.6026, "tackles_won": 0.4146, "clearances": 0.8411, "aerial_won": 0.3449, "total_shots": 0.1174, "rating": 6.8989, "minutes": 27.47, "total_pass": 33.4405, "accurate_pass": 31.2556, "duels_won": 1.8635, "total_long_balls": 1.0232, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8254, "total_own_half_passes": 12.4466, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.24, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.9939, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0156, "crosses_total": 0.2883, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.4701, "possession_lost": 3.518, "dispossessed": 0.3012, "duels_lost": 0.7706, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "total_contest": 0.4876, "won_contest": 0.3194, "ball_recovery": 1.7322, "challenges_lost": 0.1033, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8724, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.1601, "total_progression": 71.8718, "progressive_carries": 0.7146, "key_pass": 0.1979, "shots_off_target": 0.1174 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 64000000, "quality_factor": 0.8608, "boost_factor": 1.0137, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0067)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3032, "tackles": 0.6026, "tackles_won": 0.4118, "clearances": 0.8411, "aerial_won": 0.3449, "total_shots": 0.1166, "rating": 6.8989, "minutes": 27.47, "total_pass": 33.4405, "accurate_pass": 31.2556, "duels_won": 1.8635, "total_long_balls": 1.0232, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8254, "total_own_half_passes": 12.4466, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.24, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.9939, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0156, "crosses_total": 0.2864, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.4701, "possession_lost": 3.518, "dispossessed": 0.3012, "duels_lost": 0.7706, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "total_contest": 0.4876, "won_contest": 0.3194, "ball_recovery": 1.7322, "challenges_lost": 0.1033, "fouls": 0.0017, "fouls_drawn": 0.8683, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.1601, "total_progression": 71.8718, "progressive_carries": 0.7146, "key_pass": 0.1979, "shots_off_target": 0.1174 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0067, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3052, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.5 to 12.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1425, "tackles": 0.2832, "tackles_won": 0.1935, "clearances": 0.3953, "aerial_won": 0.1621, "total_shots": 0.0552, "rating": 6.8989, "minutes": 12.91, "total_pass": 15.7159, "accurate_pass": 14.6891, "duels_won": 0.8758, "total_long_balls": 0.4809, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3879, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8495, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7524, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8664, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9367, "crosses_total": 0.1346, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.5497, "possession_lost": 1.6533, "dispossessed": 0.3012, "duels_lost": 0.3622, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "total_contest": 0.2292, "won_contest": 0.1501, "ball_recovery": 0.8141, "challenges_lost": 0.1033, "fouls": 0.0008, "fouls_drawn": 0.4081, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0022, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 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"scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0793 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0264 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0224 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0164 } ], "others": -0.0614, "total": 6.6252, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.079264 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.026364 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.022443 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.017757 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01641 } ], "others_margin": -0.061398 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0136, quality 0.850)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4292, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "assists": 0.0624, "assist_rate": 0.0624, "expected_goals": 0.1244, "goals": 0.0885, "goal_rate": 0.0885, "shots_on_target": 0.4415, "total_shots": 1.0397, "rating": 6.6252, "minutes": 27.89, "total_pass": 9.5813, "accurate_pass": 7.4438, "duels_won": 0.8336, "total_long_balls": 0.2125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1609, "total_own_half_passes": 1.4295, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3581, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1518, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0857, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2369, "possession_lost": 4.553, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 2.0663, "aerial_won": 0.1229, "aerial_lost": 0.391, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.161, "tackles": 0.2772, "clearances": 0.414, "total_contest": 0.5789, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5909, "fouls": 0.0516, "fouls_drawn": 0.4334, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0439, "big_chances_missed": 0.0988, "xgot": 0.133, "ball_carries": 3.5222, "total_progression": 12.2368, "progressive_carries": 0.5599, "shots_off_target": 0.5982 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 59000000, "quality_factor": 0.8503, "boost_factor": 1.0136, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.9 to 23.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3633, "expected_assists": 0.0312, "assists": 0.0528, "assist_rate": 0.0528, "expected_goals": 0.1053, "goals": 0.0749, "goal_rate": 0.0749, "shots_on_target": 0.3737, "total_shots": 0.88, "rating": 6.6252, "minutes": 23.61, "total_pass": 8.1099, "accurate_pass": 6.3007, "duels_won": 0.7056, "total_long_balls": 0.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_own_half_passes": 1.21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1495, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1511, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.897, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 1.749, "aerial_won": 0.104, "aerial_lost": 0.391, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1363, "tackles": 0.2346, "clearances": 0.3504, "total_contest": 0.49, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5909, "fouls": 0.0437, "fouls_drawn": 0.3668, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0372, "big_chances_missed": 0.0836, "xgot": 0.1126, "ball_carries": 2.9813, "total_progression": 10.3576, "progressive_carries": 0.4739, "shots_off_target": 0.5063, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.61 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.61, "projection_minutes": 27.89, "minutes_scale": 0.8464, "appearance_probability": 0.573 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3633, "expected_assists": 0.0312, "assists": 0.0528, "assist_rate": 0.0528, "expected_goals": 0.1053, "goals": 0.0749, "goal_rate": 0.0749, "shots_on_target": 0.3737, "total_shots": 0.88, "rating": 6.6252, "minutes": 23.61, "total_pass": 8.1099, "accurate_pass": 6.3007, "duels_won": 0.7056, "total_long_balls": 0.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_own_half_passes": 1.21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1495, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1511, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.897, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 1.749, "aerial_won": 0.104, "aerial_lost": 0.391, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1363, "tackles": 0.2346, "clearances": 0.3504, "total_contest": 0.49, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5909, "fouls": 0.0437, "fouls_drawn": 0.3668, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0372, "big_chances_missed": 0.0836, "xgot": 0.1126, "ball_carries": 2.9813, "total_progression": 10.3576, "progressive_carries": 0.4739, "shots_off_target": 0.5063, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.61 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.74 (squad xG sum 2.2639, xG scale 1.6515, xA scale 2.0838, team xA 2.43 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3633, "expected_assists": 0.065, "assist_rate": 0.0528, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1739, "goal_rate": 0.0749, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3737, "total_shots": 0.88, "rating": 6.6252, "minutes": 23.61, "total_pass": 8.1099, "accurate_pass": 6.3007, "duels_won": 0.7056, "total_long_balls": 0.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_own_half_passes": 1.21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1495, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1511, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.897, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 1.749, "aerial_won": 0.104, "aerial_lost": 0.391, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1363, "tackles": 0.2346, "clearances": 0.3504, "total_contest": 0.49, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5909, "fouls": 0.0437, "fouls_drawn": 0.3668, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0372, "big_chances_missed": 0.0836, "xgot": 0.186, "ball_carries": 2.9813, "total_progression": 10.3576, "progressive_carries": 0.4739, "shots_off_target": 0.5063, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8042, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.739, "squad_xg_sum": 2.2639, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1663, "team_expected_assists": 2.4303, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6515, "xa_scale": 2.0838, "opponent_lambda": 0.877, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.573 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1053, "after": 0.1739 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0312, "after": 0.065 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3633, "expected_assists": 0.065, "assist_rate": 0.0528, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1739, "goal_rate": 0.0749, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3737, "total_shots": 0.88, "rating": 6.6252, "minutes": 23.61, "total_pass": 8.1099, "accurate_pass": 6.3007, "duels_won": 0.7056, "total_long_balls": 0.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_own_half_passes": 1.21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1495, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1511, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.897, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 1.749, "aerial_won": 0.104, "aerial_lost": 0.391, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1363, "tackles": 0.2346, "clearances": 0.3504, "total_contest": 0.49, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5909, "fouls": 0.0437, "fouls_drawn": 0.3668, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0372, "big_chances_missed": 0.0836, "xgot": 0.186, "ball_carries": 2.9813, "total_progression": 10.3576, "progressive_carries": 0.4739, "shots_off_target": 0.5063, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8042, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 631, "fifa_rank": 227.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3633, "expected_assists": 0.065, "assist_rate": 0.0528, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1739, "goal_rate": 0.0749, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3737, "total_shots": 0.88, "rating": 6.6252, "minutes": 23.61, "total_pass": 8.1099, "accurate_pass": 6.3007, "duels_won": 0.7056, "total_long_balls": 0.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_own_half_passes": 1.21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1495, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1511, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.897, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 1.749, "aerial_won": 0.104, "aerial_lost": 0.391, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1363, "tackles": 0.2346, "clearances": 0.3504, "total_contest": 0.49, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5909, "fouls": 0.0437, "fouls_drawn": 0.3668, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0372, "big_chances_missed": 0.0836, "xgot": 0.186, "ball_carries": 2.9813, "total_progression": 10.3576, "progressive_carries": 0.4739, "shots_off_target": 0.5063, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0915, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8042, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0915, "scorer_weight": 0.0801, "squad_weight_total": 4.0853, "weight_share": 0.0196, "finishing_factor": 0.8042, "appearance_weight": 0.573, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.7099, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.7099, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.7541 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Karim Adeyemi", "weight": 0.7541, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7541, "runner_up": "Lamine Yamal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.7276 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.7099, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.7276, "runner_up": "Gabriel Jesus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5055 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3633, "expected_assists": 0.065, "assist_rate": 0.0528, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1739, "goal_rate": 0.0749, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3737, "total_shots": 0.88, "rating": 6.6252, "minutes": 23.61, "total_pass": 8.1099, "accurate_pass": 6.3007, "duels_won": 0.7056, "total_long_balls": 0.1799, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1362, "total_own_half_passes": 1.21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1495, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1511, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.897, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 1.749, "aerial_won": 0.104, "aerial_lost": 0.391, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1363, "tackles": 0.2346, "clearances": 0.3504, "total_contest": 0.49, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5909, "fouls": 0.0437, "fouls_drawn": 0.3668, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0372, "big_chances_missed": 0.0836, "xgot": 0.186, "ball_carries": 2.9813, "total_progression": 10.3576, "progressive_carries": 0.4739, "shots_off_target": 0.5063, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0915, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0361, "finishing_factor": 0.8042, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0361, "provider_weight": 0.0466, "squad_weight_total": 2.5895, "weight_share": 0.018, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.573, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.6449, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6449, "runner_up": "Pedri", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4129 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedri", "weight": 0.4129, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4129, "runner_up": "Fermín López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.353, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Lamine Yamal" ] } ] } } ] }, "Dani Olmo": { "player_id": 789071, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 182, "market_value": 58000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.2165, "assist_rate": 0.2024, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1328, "goal_rate": 0.0644, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 3.2916, "dispossessed": 0.4762, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1473, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, 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"scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1119 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1099 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0385 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0232 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0229 } ], "others": 0.0698, "total": 7.0013, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.111852 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.109871 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.03852 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.023232 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.022886 } ], "others_margin": 0.069736 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0114, quality 0.848)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1235, "expected_assists": 0.0896, "assists": 0.1756, "assist_rate": 0.1756, "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goals": 0.0558, "goal_rate": 0.0558, "shots_on_target": 0.231, "total_shots": 0.7953, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 21.96, "total_pass": 17.9893, "accurate_pass": 16.7142, "duels_won": 2.0068, "total_long_balls": 0.9988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8335, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6393, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4395, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2747, "crosses_total": 0.3382, "crosses_accurate": 0.1039, "touches": 24.1864, "possession_lost": 2.838, "dispossessed": 0.4762, "duels_lost": 1.113, "aerial_won": 0.3129, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.2005, "tackles_won": 0.1238, "tackles": 0.3497, "clearances": 0.7438, "total_contest": 0.6603, "won_contest": 0.3893, "challenges_lost": 0.2017, "fouls": 0.0204, "fouls_drawn": 0.9549, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.475, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0769, "ball_carries": 6.4353, "total_progression": 16.6559, "progressive_carries": 0.2576, "shots_off_target": 0.5643 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 58000000, "quality_factor": 0.8478, "boost_factor": 1.0114, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0063)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1235, "expected_assists": 0.0896, "assists": 0.1745, "assist_rate": 0.1745, "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0555, "shots_on_target": 0.2307, "total_shots": 0.795, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 21.96, "total_pass": 17.9893, "accurate_pass": 16.7142, "duels_won": 2.0068, "total_long_balls": 0.9988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8335, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6393, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4395, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2747, "crosses_total": 0.3396, "crosses_accurate": 0.1039, "touches": 24.1864, "possession_lost": 2.838, "dispossessed": 0.4762, "duels_lost": 1.113, "aerial_won": 0.3129, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.1992, "tackles_won": 0.123, "tackles": 0.3497, "clearances": 0.7438, "total_contest": 0.6603, "won_contest": 0.3893, "challenges_lost": 0.2017, "fouls": 0.0203, "fouls_drawn": 0.9513, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.475, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0769, "ball_carries": 6.4353, "total_progression": 16.6559, "progressive_carries": 0.2576, "shots_off_target": 0.5643 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0063, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.244, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.0 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3031, "expected_assists": 0.1039, "assists": 0.2024, "assist_rate": 0.2024, "expected_goals": 0.0804, "goals": 0.0644, "goal_rate": 0.0644, "shots_on_target": 0.2676, "total_shots": 0.9221, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8646, "accurate_pass": 19.3857, "duels_won": 2.3276, "total_long_balls": 1.1584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9667, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5407, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3089, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.324, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0768, "crosses_total": 0.3939, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0523, "possession_lost": 3.2916, "dispossessed": 0.4762, "duels_lost": 1.2909, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8627, "total_contest": 0.7658, "won_contest": 0.4515, "challenges_lost": 0.2017, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1034, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5509, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0892, "ball_carries": 7.4639, "total_progression": 19.3181, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6545, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.47, "projection_minutes": 21.96, "minutes_scale": 1.1598, "appearance_probability": 0.597 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3031, "expected_assists": 0.1039, "assists": 0.2024, "assist_rate": 0.2024, "expected_goals": 0.0804, "goals": 0.0644, "goal_rate": 0.0644, "shots_on_target": 0.2676, "total_shots": 0.9221, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8646, "accurate_pass": 19.3857, "duels_won": 2.3276, "total_long_balls": 1.1584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9667, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5407, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3089, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.324, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0768, "crosses_total": 0.3939, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0523, "possession_lost": 3.2916, "dispossessed": 0.4762, "duels_lost": 1.2909, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8627, "total_contest": 0.7658, "won_contest": 0.4515, "challenges_lost": 0.2017, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1034, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5509, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0892, "ball_carries": 7.4639, "total_progression": 19.3181, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6545, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.74 (squad xG sum 2.2639, xG scale 1.6515, xA scale 2.0838, team xA 2.43 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3031, "expected_assists": 0.2165, "assist_rate": 0.2024, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1328, "goal_rate": 0.0644, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2676, "total_shots": 0.9221, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8646, "accurate_pass": 19.3857, "duels_won": 2.3276, "total_long_balls": 1.1584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9667, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5407, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3089, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.324, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0768, "crosses_total": 0.3939, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0523, "possession_lost": 3.2916, "dispossessed": 0.4762, "duels_lost": 1.2909, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8627, "total_contest": 0.7658, "won_contest": 0.4515, "challenges_lost": 0.2017, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1034, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5509, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1473, "ball_carries": 7.4639, "total_progression": 19.3181, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6545, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8773, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.739, "squad_xg_sum": 2.2639, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1663, "team_expected_assists": 2.4303, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6515, "xa_scale": 2.0838, "opponent_lambda": 0.877, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.597 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0804, "after": 0.1328 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1039, "after": 0.2165 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3031, "expected_assists": 0.2165, "assist_rate": 0.2024, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1328, "goal_rate": 0.0644, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2676, "total_shots": 0.9221, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8646, "accurate_pass": 19.3857, "duels_won": 2.3276, "total_long_balls": 1.1584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9667, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5407, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3089, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.324, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0768, "crosses_total": 0.3939, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0523, "possession_lost": 3.2916, "dispossessed": 0.4762, "duels_lost": 1.2909, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8627, "total_contest": 0.7658, "won_contest": 0.4515, "challenges_lost": 0.2017, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1034, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5509, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1473, "ball_carries": 7.4639, "total_progression": 19.3181, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6545, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8773, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 426, "fifa_rank": 230.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3031, "expected_assists": 0.2165, "assist_rate": 0.2024, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1328, "goal_rate": 0.0644, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2676, "total_shots": 0.9221, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8646, "accurate_pass": 19.3857, "duels_won": 2.3276, "total_long_balls": 1.1584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9667, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5407, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3089, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.324, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0768, "crosses_total": 0.3939, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0523, "possession_lost": 3.2916, "dispossessed": 0.4762, "duels_lost": 1.2909, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8627, "total_contest": 0.7658, "won_contest": 0.4515, "challenges_lost": 0.2017, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1034, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5509, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1473, "ball_carries": 7.4639, "total_progression": 19.3181, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6545, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0742, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8773, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0742, "scorer_weight": 0.0696, "squad_weight_total": 4.0853, "weight_share": 0.017, "finishing_factor": 0.8773, "appearance_weight": 0.597, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.7099, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.7099, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.7541 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Karim Adeyemi", "weight": 0.7541, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7541, "runner_up": "Lamine Yamal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.7276 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 1.7099, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.7276, "runner_up": "Gabriel Jesus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5055 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3031, "expected_assists": 0.2165, "assist_rate": 0.2024, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1328, "goal_rate": 0.0644, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2676, "total_shots": 0.9221, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8646, "accurate_pass": 19.3857, "duels_won": 2.3276, "total_long_balls": 1.1584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9667, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5407, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3089, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.324, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0768, "crosses_total": 0.3939, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0523, "possession_lost": 3.2916, "dispossessed": 0.4762, "duels_lost": 1.2909, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8627, "total_contest": 0.7658, "won_contest": 0.4515, "challenges_lost": 0.2017, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1034, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5509, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1473, "ball_carries": 7.4639, "total_progression": 19.3181, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6545, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0742, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1162, "finishing_factor": 0.8773, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1162, "provider_weight": 0.1616, "squad_weight_total": 2.5895, "weight_share": 0.0624, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.597, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.6449, "already": 0, 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"totalPass", "contribution": 0.0302 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0304 } ], "others": 0.1662, "total": 0.7489, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.53796 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.165778 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.116685 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.056306 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.053566 } ], "others_margin": 0.251096 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.6424994468688965, "model_output": 7.6425, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1917 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.1473 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.1235 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1196 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0779 } ], "others": 0.4595, "total": 7.6425, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.191705 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.147317 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.123479 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.119623 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.077937 } ], "others_margin": 0.459523 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0156, quality 0.859)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1602, "goals": 0.2046, "goal_rate": 0.2046, "shots_on_target": 0.6313, "total_shots": 1.3018, "expected_assists": 0.1164, "key_pass": 0.7606, "rating": 7.6425, "minutes": 24.23, "total_pass": 8.6391, "accurate_pass": 6.7426, "duels_won": 1.1519, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6136, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6732, "crosses_total": 0.5144, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.6439, "possession_lost": 4.4961, "dispossessed": 0.2709, "duels_lost": 1.7664, "aerial_lost": 0.5144, "total_contest": 0.7102, "won_contest": 0.1957, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1957, "fouls": 0.2709, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3187, "tackles_won": 0.3187, "tackles": 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"ranking": 431 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.763, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", 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"contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0054 } ], "others": -0.0052, "total": 0.0552, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.529484 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.158825 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.103396 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.100218 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.093642 } ], "others_margin": -0.089509 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.22843042016029358, "model_output": 0.2284, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.139 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0447 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0286, "total": 0.2284, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.560528 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.216336 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.09693 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.056595 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.041209 } ], "others_margin": -0.117609 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7863337993621826, "model_output": 0.7863, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.535 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2314 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0728 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0402 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0332 } ], "others": -0.0468, "total": 0.7863, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.535004 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.231373 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.072829 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.040156 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.033189 } ], "others_margin": -0.046674 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.001262664794922, "model_output": 7.0013, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1119 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1099 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0385 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0232 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0229 } ], "others": 0.0698, "total": 7.0013, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.111852 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.109871 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.03852 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.023232 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.022886 } ], "others_margin": 0.069736 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0114, quality 0.848)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1235, "expected_assists": 0.0896, "assists": 0.1756, "assist_rate": 0.1756, "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goals": 0.0558, "goal_rate": 0.0558, "shots_on_target": 0.231, "total_shots": 0.7953, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 21.96, "total_pass": 17.9893, "accurate_pass": 16.7142, "duels_won": 2.0068, "total_long_balls": 0.9988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8335, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6393, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4395, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2747, "crosses_total": 0.3382, "crosses_accurate": 0.1039, "touches": 24.1864, "possession_lost": 2.838, "dispossessed": 0.4762, "duels_lost": 1.113, "aerial_won": 0.3129, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.2005, "tackles_won": 0.1238, "tackles": 0.3497, "clearances": 0.7438, "total_contest": 0.6603, "won_contest": 0.3893, "challenges_lost": 0.2017, "fouls": 0.0204, "fouls_drawn": 0.9549, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.475, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0769, "ball_carries": 6.4353, "total_progression": 16.6559, "progressive_carries": 0.2576, "shots_off_target": 0.5643 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 58000000, "quality_factor": 0.8478, "boost_factor": 1.0114, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0063)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1235, "expected_assists": 0.0896, "assists": 0.1745, "assist_rate": 0.1745, "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0555, "shots_on_target": 0.2307, "total_shots": 0.795, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 21.96, "total_pass": 17.9893, "accurate_pass": 16.7142, "duels_won": 2.0068, "total_long_balls": 0.9988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8335, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6393, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4395, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2747, "crosses_total": 0.3396, "crosses_accurate": 0.1039, "touches": 24.1864, "possession_lost": 2.838, "dispossessed": 0.4762, "duels_lost": 1.113, "aerial_won": 0.3129, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.1992, "tackles_won": 0.123, "tackles": 0.3497, "clearances": 0.7438, "total_contest": 0.6603, "won_contest": 0.3893, "challenges_lost": 0.2017, "fouls": 0.0203, "fouls_drawn": 0.9513, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.475, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0769, "ball_carries": 6.4353, "total_progression": 16.6559, "progressive_carries": 0.2576, "shots_off_target": 0.5643 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0063, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.244, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.0 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3031, "expected_assists": 0.1039, "assists": 0.2024, "assist_rate": 0.2024, "expected_goals": 0.0804, "goals": 0.0644, "goal_rate": 0.0644, "shots_on_target": 0.2676, "total_shots": 0.9221, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8646, "accurate_pass": 19.3857, "duels_won": 2.3276, "total_long_balls": 1.1584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9667, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5407, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3089, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.324, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0768, "crosses_total": 0.3939, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0523, "possession_lost": 3.2916, "dispossessed": 0.4762, "duels_lost": 1.2909, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8627, "total_contest": 0.7658, "won_contest": 0.4515, "challenges_lost": 0.2017, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1034, "blocks": 0.0, 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"model_output": 0.3041, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.04 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.039 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0162, "total": 0.3041, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.131833 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12878 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.058894 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.034339 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.033005 } ], "others_margin": -0.051921 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0036094188690186, "model_output": 1.0036, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1437 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0518 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0294 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0217 } ], "others": -0.0616, "total": 1.0036, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.143727 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.051774 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.029403 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.024858 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.021688 } ], "others_margin": -0.061665 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.723352432250977, "model_output": 6.7234, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0476 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0413 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0062 } ], "others": -0.0298, "total": 6.7234, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6405, "expected_assists": 0.044, "assists": 0.0512, "assist_rate": 0.0512, "expected_goals": 0.0841, "goals": 0.0592, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "shots_on_target": 0.3034, "total_shots": 1.0013, "rating": 6.7234, "minutes": 85.53, "total_pass": 27.6096, "accurate_pass": 22.2028, "duels_won": 3.0589, "total_long_balls": 3.2095, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5013, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1366, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1253, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.4728, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0775, "crosses_total": 0.2375, "crosses_accurate": 0.1538, "touches": 37.9755, "possession_lost": 6.6527, "dispossessed": 0.0572, "duels_lost": 3.206, "aerial_won": 1.5964, "aerial_lost": 0.4788, "interceptions": 1.2049, "tackles_won": 0.6155, "tackles": 1.0103, "clearances": 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0.0531 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0129 } ], "others": -0.0392, "total": 0.3512, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.119857 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.053052 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017876 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.016867 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.01286 } ], "others_margin": -0.039265 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7368974685668945, "model_output": 6.7369, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0775, "tackles": 1.2832, "tackles_won": 0.7574, "clearances": 4.5999, "aerial_won": 1.4736, "total_shots": 0.3504, "rating": 6.7369, "minutes": 81.47, "total_pass": 30.1663, "accurate_pass": 24.8163, "duels_won": 2.572, "total_long_balls": 5.1513, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5414, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9239, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.6422, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2425, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1742, "crosses_total": 0.5495, "crosses_accurate": 0.1649, "touches": 40.9574, "possession_lost": 6.6566, "dispossessed": 0.2152, "duels_lost": 2.279, "aerial_lost": 0.8494, "total_contest": 0.1495, "won_contest": 0.1364, "ball_recovery": 4.8771, "challenges_lost": 0.3183, "fouls": 0.9286, "fouls_drawn": 0.4909, "blocks": 0.4403, "goals": 0.0, 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"contribution": 0.0581 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0178 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0104 } ], "others": -0.0213, "total": 0.6373, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.108739 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058087 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.017823 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.013326 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.010395 } ], "others_margin": -0.021434 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.63720703125, "model_output": 6.6372, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": 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"count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1543 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0468 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.043 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0187 } ], "others": 0.0917, "total": 1.2804, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.154324 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.046758 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.04299 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.02139 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.018684 } ], "others_margin": 0.091733 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.664016246795654, "model_output": 6.664, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0503 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0361 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0285 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.024 } ], "others": -0.0681, "total": 6.664, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.050333 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.036095 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.028522 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.02592 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0009, quality 0.531)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6233, "expected_assists": 0.0498, "assists": 0.0706, "assist_rate": 0.0706, "expected_goals": 0.127, "goals": 0.1003, "goal_rate": 0.1003, "shots_on_target": 0.4538, "total_shots": 1.2815, "rating": 6.664, "minutes": 79.99, "total_pass": 20.0262, "accurate_pass": 14.5421, "duels_won": 5.8706, "total_long_balls": 1.7501, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0558, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9314, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3212, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2208, "crosses_total": 0.6515, "crosses_accurate": 0.0295, "touches": 35.3177, "possession_lost": 10.5681, "dispossessed": 1.0501, "duels_lost": 8.7276, "aerial_won": 2.3492, "aerial_lost": 3.0715, "interceptions": 0.5724, "tackles_won": 0.4071, "tackles": 1.3673, "clearances": 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false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.045061 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.026138 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.024132 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.010769 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.007666 } ], "others_margin": -0.041735 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0001, quality 0.506)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5705, "expected_assists": 0.0512, "assists": 0.057, "assist_rate": 0.057, "expected_goals": 0.0373, "goals": 0.0418, "goal_rate": 0.0418, "shots_on_target": 0.1886, "total_shots": 0.6916, "rating": 6.757, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 27.0936, "accurate_pass": 23.9635, "duels_won": 2.1318, "total_long_balls": 1.6654, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2988, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4085, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2477, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.555, "crosses_total": 0.4455, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.4038, "possession_lost": 5.1321, "dispossessed": 0.8093, "duels_lost": 3.737, "aerial_won": 0.3877, "aerial_lost": 0.3526, "interceptions": 2.4551, "tackles_won": 0.2326, "tackles": 0.4463, "clearances": 1.0384, 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{ "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1039 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0394 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0355 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0343 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0286 } ], "others": 0.0365, "total": 0.928, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114732 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.042026 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.037904 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.036639 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.031607 } ], "others_margin": 0.040274 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.9706521034240723, "model_output": 2.9707, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 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"others_margin": -0.146268 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7915799021720886, "model_output": 0.7916, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1324 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0611 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0365 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0161 } ], "others": 0.0535, "total": 0.7916, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.132449 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061115 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.036483 }, { "name": 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1039 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0612 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0589 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0525 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.028 } ], "others": 0.0204, "total": 0.6489, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.278209 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.133572 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.113763 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.091565 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.045626 } ], "others_margin": 0.031892 } }, { 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9976, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2695, "expected_assists": 0.119, "assists": 0.1131, "assist_rate": 0.1131, "expected_goals": 0.1864, "goals": 0.2361, "goal_rate": 0.2361, "shots_on_target": 0.6474, "total_shots": 1.8112, "rating": 6.854, "minutes": 80.7, "total_pass": 21.6565, "accurate_pass": 17.2209, "duels_won": 5.5669, "total_long_balls": 1.9753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6963, "total_own_half_passes": 6.508, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.865, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1484, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3558, "crosses_total": 2.0831, "crosses_accurate": 0.6419, "touches": 40.3796, "possession_lost": 9.7703, "dispossessed": 0.9544, "duels_lost": 4.2126, "aerial_won": 1.0028, "aerial_lost": 0.7392, "interceptions": 0.5819, "tackles_won": 0.2989, "tackles": 0.9702, "clearances": 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1831 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0753 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.012 } ], "others": -0.0255, "total": 0.1643, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.183051 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.075299 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022167 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.012746 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.011975 } ], "others_margin": -0.025505 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.761332988739014, "model_output": 6.7613, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0269 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0246 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0243 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.023 } ], "others": -0.0114, "total": 6.7613, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.037753 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.02691 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.024632 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.024251 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023018 } ], "others_margin": -0.01124 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9968, quality 0.441)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3017, "tackles": 0.5521, "tackles_won": 0.3605, "clearances": 1.8447, "aerial_won": 0.4882, "total_shots": 0.1638, "rating": 6.7613, "minutes": 17.79, "total_pass": 6.5584, "accurate_pass": 4.5268, "duels_won": 0.8477, "total_long_balls": 1.3904, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7099, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1139, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6421, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4445, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8846, "crosses_total": 0.159, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.1588, "possession_lost": 2.3859, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3455, "aerial_lost": 0.2739, "total_contest": 0.1953, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7687, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8763, "fouls_drawn": 0.1806, "blocks": 0.159, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"stats": { "interceptions": 0.1126, "tackles": 0.2067, "tackles_won": 0.1345, "clearances": 0.6906, "aerial_won": 0.1828, "total_shots": 0.0613, "rating": 6.7613, "minutes": 6.66, "total_pass": 2.4553, "accurate_pass": 1.6947, "duels_won": 0.3174, "total_long_balls": 0.5205, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2658, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1657, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.9891, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.2895, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7055, "crosses_total": 0.0591, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.1775, "possession_lost": 0.8932, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5037, "aerial_lost": 0.2739, "total_contest": 0.0731, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2878, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3262, "fouls_drawn": 0.0676, "blocks": 0.0595, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0078, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.6134, "total_progression": 2.0247, "progressive_carries": 0.0855, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0613, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.41, "bench_expected_minutes": 6.66 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 6.66, "projection_minutes": 17.79, "minutes_scale": 0.3744, "appearance_probability": 0.41 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1126, "tackles": 0.2067, "tackles_won": 0.1345, "clearances": 0.6906, "aerial_won": 0.1828, "total_shots": 0.0613, "rating": 6.7613, "minutes": 6.66, "total_pass": 2.4553, "accurate_pass": 1.6947, "duels_won": 0.3174, "total_long_balls": 0.5205, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2658, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1657, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.9891, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.2895, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7055, "crosses_total": 0.0591, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.1775, "possession_lost": 0.8932, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5037, "aerial_lost": 0.2739, 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"total_long_balls": 0.5205, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2658, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1657, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.9891, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.2895, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7055, "crosses_total": 0.0591, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.1775, "possession_lost": 0.8932, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5037, "aerial_lost": 0.2739, "total_contest": 0.0731, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2878, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3262, "fouls_drawn": 0.0676, "blocks": 0.0595, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0078, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.6134, "total_progression": 2.0247, "progressive_carries": 0.0855, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0613, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.41, "bench_expected_minutes": 6.66, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.342, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.41, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1126, "tackles": 0.2067, "tackles_won": 0.1345, "clearances": 0.6906, "aerial_won": 0.1828, "total_shots": 0.0613, "rating": 6.7613, "minutes": 6.66, "total_pass": 2.4553, "accurate_pass": 1.6947, "duels_won": 0.3174, "total_long_balls": 0.5205, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2658, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1657, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.9891, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.2895, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7055, "crosses_total": 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0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1666, "fifa_rank": 860.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } } ] }, "Yvan Neyou": { "player_id": 869931, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 180, "market_value": 1900000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6578, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, 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"season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083240, "match_date": "2025-09-13", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4194, "combined_rank_score": 2226.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 948.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.4333, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 3504.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.2544 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2586 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1188 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0732 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0487 } ], "others": 0.0991, "total": 0.7968, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.058954 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.243392 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.135371 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.093612 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.067439 } ], "others_margin": 0.132824 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.3614802658557892, "model_output": 0.3615, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8458 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.181 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0442 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0428 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0226 } ], "others": 0.0275, "total": 0.3615, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.946799 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.411698 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.117322 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.113218 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.065555 } ], "others_margin": 0.078847 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1591903120279312, "model_output": 0.1592, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.205 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0599 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0315 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0461, "total": 0.1592, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.205026 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.059869 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031544 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.018761 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.0118 } ], "others_margin": -0.046063 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6577982902526855, "model_output": 6.6578, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0254 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0252 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0242 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0196 } ], "others": -0.1104, "total": 6.6578, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.025359 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9899, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.296, "tackles": 0.4164, "tackles_won": 0.3306, "clearances": 0.7887, "aerial_won": 0.3578, "total_shots": 0.1576, "rating": 6.6578, "minutes": 14.61, "total_pass": 3.3732, "accurate_pass": 2.7155, "duels_won": 0.3857, "total_long_balls": 0.1928, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1928, "total_own_half_passes": 0.8282, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.8282, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5448, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8871, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.787, "possession_lost": 1.5641, "dispossessed": 0.3857, "duels_lost": 1.3779, "aerial_lost": 0.3032, "total_contest": 0.1639, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3322, "challenges_lost": 0.1928, "fouls": 0.6601, "fouls_drawn": 0.3857, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.275, "tackles": 0.3868, "tackles_won": 0.3071, "clearances": 0.7327, "aerial_won": 0.3324, "total_shots": 0.1464, "rating": 6.6578, "minutes": 13.57, "total_pass": 3.1336, "accurate_pass": 2.5226, "duels_won": 0.3583, "total_long_balls": 0.1791, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1791, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7694, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7694, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.364, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7531, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.3049, "possession_lost": 1.453, "dispossessed": 0.3857, "duels_lost": 1.28, "aerial_lost": 0.3032, "total_contest": 0.1523, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3086, "challenges_lost": 0.1928, "fouls": 0.6132, 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"contribution": -0.0441 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0043 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0043 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0028 } ], "others": 0.0062, "total": 0.0769, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.629922 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.254613 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.064553 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.060193 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.039284 } ], "others_margin": 0.084848 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.0784696564078331, "model_output": 0.0785, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.043 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0094 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0043 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0063, "total": 0.0785, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.579996 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.198777 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.132006 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.055222 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.055018 } ], "others_margin": -0.079657 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.22827117145061493, "model_output": 0.2283, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1605 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0366 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0071 } ], "others": -0.0072, "total": 0.2283, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.68424 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.202271 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.1301 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.062611 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.029648 } ], "others_margin": -0.031276 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7747130990028381, "model_output": 0.7747, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2227 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0396 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0311 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0177 } ], "others": 0.0, "total": 0.7747, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.526914 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.222735 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.039557 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.031082 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.017701 } ], "others_margin": 8.8e-05 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.704479694366455, "model_output": 6.7045, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.073 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0354 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.007 } ], "others": -0.0226, "total": 6.7045, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.072961 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.035374 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016441 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.009993 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.006964 } ], "others_margin": -0.022645 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9999, quality 0.502)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3743, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "assists": 0.0585, "assist_rate": 0.0585, "expected_goals": 0.0769, "goals": 0.0785, "goal_rate": 0.0785, "shots_on_target": 0.2282, "total_shots": 0.7746, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 23.0066, "accurate_pass": 18.3581, "duels_won": 5.6331, "total_long_balls": 2.509, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6022, "total_own_half_passes": 7.5517, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7656, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4549, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5924, "crosses_total": 0.8459, "crosses_accurate": 0.0329, "touches": 39.6738, "possession_lost": 10.5796, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 6.1792, "aerial_won": 1.5769, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.4532, "tackles_won": 0.8053, "tackles": 1.4056, "clearances": 0.7308, "total_contest": 2.2927, "won_contest": 0.9029, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.6863, "fouls_drawn": 1.7476, "blocks": 0.1375, "big_chances_created": 0.0029, "big_chances_missed": 0.2521, "xgot": 0.1461, "ball_carries": 9.6817, "total_progression": 17.652, "progressive_carries": 0.7684, "shots_off_target": 0.5463 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8300000, "quality_factor": 0.5023, "boost_factor": 0.9999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4379, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "assists": 0.0684, "assist_rate": 0.0684, "expected_goals": 0.09, "goals": 0.0918, "goal_rate": 0.0918, "shots_on_target": 0.267, "total_shots": 0.9062, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1709, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.6391, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.23, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.17, "appearance_probability": 0.51 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4379, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "assists": 0.0684, "assist_rate": 0.0684, "expected_goals": 0.09, "goals": 0.0918, "goal_rate": 0.0918, "shots_on_target": 0.267, "total_shots": 0.9062, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1709, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.6391, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.88 (squad xG sum 0.8845, xG scale 0.9915, xA scale 0.9915, team xA 0.60 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4379, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "assist_rate": 0.0684, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0892, "goal_rate": 0.0918, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.267, "total_shots": 0.9062, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1694, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.6391, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.342, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0129, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.877, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8845, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6005, "team_expected_assists": 0.5954, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6789, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9915, "xa_scale": 0.9915, "opponent_lambda": 3.739, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.51 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4379, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "assist_rate": 0.0684, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0892, "goal_rate": 0.0918, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.267, "total_shots": 0.9062, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1694, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.6391, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.342, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0129, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1882, "fifa_rank": 788.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4379, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "assist_rate": 0.0684, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0892, "goal_rate": 0.0918, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.267, "total_shots": 0.9062, 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"projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.342, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0435, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0129, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0435, "scorer_weight": 0.0461, "squad_weight_total": 0.8874, "weight_share": 0.0519, "finishing_factor": 1.0129, "appearance_weight": 0.51, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4379, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "assist_rate": 0.0684, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0892, "goal_rate": 0.0918, "goals": 0, 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-0.047766 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.043892 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014868 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008377 } ], "others_margin": -0.045515 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9915, quality 0.442)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2422, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "assists": 0.0329, "assist_rate": 0.0329, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "goals": 0.0309, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "shots_on_target": 0.1155, "total_shots": 0.4513, "rating": 6.6233, "minutes": 18.8, "total_pass": 5.5201, "accurate_pass": 3.8982, "duels_won": 0.8789, "total_long_balls": 0.5309, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1642, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8168, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3964, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7033, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5018, "crosses_total": 0.4315, "crosses_accurate": 0.1642, "touches": 9.546, "possession_lost": 2.7189, "dispossessed": 0.1642, "duels_lost": 2.416, "aerial_won": 0.1642, "aerial_lost": 1.1021, "interceptions": 0.1642, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4315, 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"big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0035, "ball_carries": 2.9861, "total_progression": 6.928, "progressive_carries": 0.1921, "shots_off_target": 0.3927, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.99 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.88 (squad xG sum 0.8845, xG scale 0.9915, xA scale 0.9915, team xA 0.60 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2833, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "assist_rate": 0.0385, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0253, "goal_rate": 0.0361, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1351, "total_shots": 0.5279, "rating": 6.6233, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 6.4573, "accurate_pass": 4.56, "duels_won": 1.0281, "total_long_balls": 0.621, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1921, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1253, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6335, 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1404, "creation_factor": 1.2395 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.877, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8845, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6005, "team_expected_assists": 0.5954, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6789, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9915, "xa_scale": 0.9915, "opponent_lambda": 3.739, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.5 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2833, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "assist_rate": 0.0385, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0253, "goal_rate": 0.0361, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1351, "total_shots": 0.5279, "rating": 6.6233, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 6.4573, "accurate_pass": 4.56, "duels_won": 1.0281, "total_long_balls": 0.621, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1921, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1253, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6335, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3321, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9266, "crosses_total": 0.5048, "crosses_accurate": 0.1921, "touches": 11.1667, "possession_lost": 3.1805, "dispossessed": 0.1642, "duels_lost": 2.8262, "aerial_won": 0.1921, "aerial_lost": 1.1021, "interceptions": 0.1921, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5048, "total_contest": 0.5813, "won_contest": 0.418, "challenges_lost": 0.6187, "fouls": 0.6839, "fouls_drawn": 0.418, "blocks": 0.1921, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0035, "ball_carries": 2.9861, "total_progression": 6.928, "progressive_carries": 0.1921, "shots_off_target": 0.3927, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.99, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.342, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": 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"per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0025 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0017 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0016 } ], "others": -0.0052, "total": 0.0278, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.413335 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.090218 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.067611 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.048466 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.047285 } ], "others_margin": -0.170781 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.40714195370674133, "model_output": 0.4071, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2584 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0242 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "contribution": 0.0173 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": 0.023, "total": 0.4071, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.483539 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.060042 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "margin": 0.043168 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.03172 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.03018 } ], "others_margin": 0.058279 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.782137393951416, "model_output": 6.7821, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0668 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "contribution": 0.0348 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0173 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0015, "total": 6.7821, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.066819 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "margin": 0.034815 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.021427 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.017312 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.014674 } ], "others_margin": -0.001433 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0012, quality 0.529)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1102, "goals": 0.1611, "goal_rate": 0.1611, "shots_on_target": 0.3283, "total_shots": 0.9666, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "key_pass": 0.4076, "rating": 6.7821, "minutes": 20.0, "total_pass": 17.4767, "accurate_pass": 10.8444, "duels_won": 6.1472, "total_long_balls": 0.5868, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3339, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1587, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4482, "crosses_total": 0.5881, "crosses_accurate": 0.1137, "touches": 34.8753, "possession_lost": 13.5268, "dispossessed": 1.6633, "duels_lost": 7.5025, "aerial_lost": 2.3051, "total_contest": 3.1605, "won_contest": 1.5165, "ball_recovery": 2.359, "challenges_lost": 0.3894, "fouls": 1.8161, "fouls_drawn": 1.7966, "assists": 0.1685, "assist_rate": 0.1685, "interceptions": 0.3459, "tackles_won": 0.2655, "tackles": 0.8978, "clearances": 0.7797, "blocks": 0.1102, "big_chances_created": 0.2335, "big_chances_missed": 0.1151, "xgot": 0.1922, "offsides": 0.129, "ball_carries": 9.2523, "total_progression": 32.5793, "progressive_carries": 1.2681, "shots_off_target": 0.6383 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10600000, "quality_factor": 0.5295, "boost_factor": 1.0012, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0195)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1102, "goals": 0.158, "goal_rate": 0.158, "shots_on_target": 0.3235, "total_shots": 0.9573, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "key_pass": 0.4076, "rating": 6.7821, "minutes": 20.0, "total_pass": 17.4767, "accurate_pass": 10.8444, "duels_won": 6.1472, "total_long_balls": 0.5868, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3339, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1587, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4482, "crosses_total": 0.5782, "crosses_accurate": 0.1137, "touches": 34.8753, "possession_lost": 13.5268, "dispossessed": 1.6633, "duels_lost": 7.5025, "aerial_lost": 2.3051, "total_contest": 3.1605, "won_contest": 1.5165, "ball_recovery": 2.359, "challenges_lost": 0.3894, "fouls": 1.7871, "fouls_drawn": 1.7744, "assists": 0.1652, "assist_rate": 0.1652, "interceptions": 0.3392, "tackles_won": 0.2603, "tackles": 0.8978, "clearances": 0.7797, "blocks": 0.1102, "big_chances_created": 0.2335, "big_chances_missed": 0.1151, "xgot": 0.1922, "offsides": 0.1281, "ball_carries": 9.2523, "total_progression": 32.5793, "progressive_carries": 1.2681, "shots_off_target": 0.6383 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0195, "history_matches": 25, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2222, "prior_reliability": 0.18, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.8161, "after": 1.7871 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.7966, "after": 1.7744 }, { 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0.0784696564078331, "model_output": 0.0785, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.043 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0094 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0043 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0063, "total": 0.0785, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.579996 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.198777 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.132006 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.055222 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.055018 } ], "others_margin": -0.079657 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.22827117145061493, "model_output": 0.2283, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1605 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0366 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0071 } ], "others": -0.0072, "total": 0.2283, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.68424 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.202271 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.1301 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.062611 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.029648 } ], "others_margin": -0.031276 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7747130990028381, "model_output": 0.7747, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5269 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2227 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0396 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0311 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0177 } ], "others": 0.0, "total": 0.7747, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.526914 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.222735 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.039557 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.031082 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.017701 } ], "others_margin": 8.8e-05 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.704479694366455, "model_output": 6.7045, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.073 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0354 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.007 } ], "others": -0.0226, "total": 6.7045, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.072961 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.035374 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016441 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.009993 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.006964 } ], "others_margin": -0.022645 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9999, quality 0.502)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3743, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "assists": 0.0585, "assist_rate": 0.0585, "expected_goals": 0.0769, "goals": 0.0785, "goal_rate": 0.0785, "shots_on_target": 0.2282, "total_shots": 0.7746, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 23.0066, "accurate_pass": 18.3581, "duels_won": 5.6331, "total_long_balls": 2.509, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6022, "total_own_half_passes": 7.5517, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7656, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4549, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5924, "crosses_total": 0.8459, "crosses_accurate": 0.0329, "touches": 39.6738, "possession_lost": 10.5796, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 6.1792, "aerial_won": 1.5769, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.4532, "tackles_won": 0.8053, "tackles": 1.4056, "clearances": 0.7308, "total_contest": 2.2927, "won_contest": 0.9029, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.6863, "fouls_drawn": 1.7476, "blocks": 0.1375, "big_chances_created": 0.0029, "big_chances_missed": 0.2521, "xgot": 0.1461, "ball_carries": 9.6817, "total_progression": 17.652, "progressive_carries": 0.7684, "shots_off_target": 0.5463 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8300000, "quality_factor": 0.5023, "boost_factor": 0.9999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4379, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "assists": 0.0684, "assist_rate": 0.0684, "expected_goals": 0.09, "goals": 0.0918, "goal_rate": 0.0918, "shots_on_target": 0.267, "total_shots": 0.9062, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1709, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.6391, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.23, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.17, "appearance_probability": 0.51 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4379, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "assists": 0.0684, "assist_rate": 0.0684, "expected_goals": 0.09, "goals": 0.0918, "goal_rate": 0.0918, "shots_on_target": 0.267, "total_shots": 0.9062, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1709, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.6391, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.88 (squad xG sum 0.8845, xG scale 0.9915, xA scale 0.9915, team xA 0.60 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4379, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "assist_rate": 0.0684, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0892, "goal_rate": 0.0918, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.267, "total_shots": 0.9062, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1694, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.6391, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.342, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0129, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.877, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8845, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6005, "team_expected_assists": 0.5954, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6789, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9915, "xa_scale": 0.9915, "opponent_lambda": 3.739, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.51 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4379, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "assist_rate": 0.0684, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0892, "goal_rate": 0.0918, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.267, "total_shots": 0.9062, "rating": 6.7045, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1694, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.6391, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.342, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0129, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1882, "fifa_rank": 788.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4379, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "assist_rate": 0.0684, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0892, "goal_rate": 0.0918, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.267, "total_shots": 0.9062, 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.019067 } ], "others_margin": -0.01116 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.623347759246826, "model_output": 6.6233, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0651 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0478 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0439 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0455, "total": 6.6233, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065104 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.047766 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.043892 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014868 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008377 } ], "others_margin": -0.045515 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9915, quality 0.442)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2422, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "assists": 0.0329, "assist_rate": 0.0329, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "goals": 0.0309, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "shots_on_target": 0.1155, "total_shots": 0.4513, "rating": 6.6233, "minutes": 18.8, "total_pass": 5.5201, "accurate_pass": 3.8982, "duels_won": 0.8789, "total_long_balls": 0.5309, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1642, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8168, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3964, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7033, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5018, "crosses_total": 0.4315, "crosses_accurate": 0.1642, "touches": 9.546, "possession_lost": 2.7189, "dispossessed": 0.1642, "duels_lost": 2.416, "aerial_won": 0.1642, "aerial_lost": 1.1021, "interceptions": 0.1642, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4315, "total_contest": 0.4969, "won_contest": 0.3573, "challenges_lost": 0.6187, "fouls": 0.5846, "fouls_drawn": 0.3573, "blocks": 0.1642, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.003, "ball_carries": 2.5527, "total_progression": 5.9225, "progressive_carries": 0.1642, "shots_off_target": 0.3357 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3400000, "quality_factor": 0.4424, "boost_factor": 0.9915, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.8 to 22.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2833, "expected_assists": 0.0214, "assists": 0.0385, "assist_rate": 0.0385, "expected_goals": 0.0255, "goals": 0.0361, "goal_rate": 0.0361, "shots_on_target": 0.1351, "total_shots": 0.5279, "rating": 6.6233, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 6.4573, "accurate_pass": 4.56, "duels_won": 1.0281, "total_long_balls": 0.621, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1921, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1253, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6335, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3321, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9266, "crosses_total": 0.5048, "crosses_accurate": 0.1921, "touches": 11.1667, "possession_lost": 3.1805, "dispossessed": 0.1642, "duels_lost": 2.8262, "aerial_won": 0.1921, "aerial_lost": 1.1021, "interceptions": 0.1921, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5048, "total_contest": 0.5813, "won_contest": 0.418, "challenges_lost": 0.6187, "fouls": 0.6839, "fouls_drawn": 0.418, "blocks": 0.1921, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0035, "ball_carries": 2.9861, "total_progression": 6.928, "progressive_carries": 0.1921, "shots_off_target": 0.3927, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.99 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.99, "projection_minutes": 18.8, "minutes_scale": 1.1698, "appearance_probability": 0.5 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2833, "expected_assists": 0.0214, "assists": 0.0385, "assist_rate": 0.0385, "expected_goals": 0.0255, "goals": 0.0361, "goal_rate": 0.0361, "shots_on_target": 0.1351, "total_shots": 0.5279, "rating": 6.6233, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 6.4573, "accurate_pass": 4.56, "duels_won": 1.0281, "total_long_balls": 0.621, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1921, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1253, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6335, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3321, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9266, "crosses_total": 0.5048, "crosses_accurate": 0.1921, "touches": 11.1667, "possession_lost": 3.1805, "dispossessed": 0.1642, "duels_lost": 2.8262, "aerial_won": 0.1921, "aerial_lost": 1.1021, "interceptions": 0.1921, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5048, "total_contest": 0.5813, "won_contest": 0.418, "challenges_lost": 0.6187, "fouls": 0.6839, "fouls_drawn": 0.418, "blocks": 0.1921, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0035, "ball_carries": 2.9861, "total_progression": 6.928, "progressive_carries": 0.1921, "shots_off_target": 0.3927, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.99 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.88 (squad xG sum 0.8845, xG scale 0.9915, xA scale 0.9915, team xA 0.60 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2833, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "assist_rate": 0.0385, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0253, "goal_rate": 0.0361, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1351, "total_shots": 0.5279, "rating": 6.6233, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 6.4573, "accurate_pass": 4.56, "duels_won": 1.0281, "total_long_balls": 0.621, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1921, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1253, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6335, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3321, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9266, "crosses_total": 0.5048, "crosses_accurate": 0.1921, "touches": 11.1667, "possession_lost": 3.1805, "dispossessed": 0.1642, "duels_lost": 2.8262, "aerial_won": 0.1921, "aerial_lost": 1.1021, "interceptions": 0.1921, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5048, "total_contest": 0.5813, "won_contest": 0.418, "challenges_lost": 0.6187, "fouls": 0.6839, "fouls_drawn": 0.418, "blocks": 0.1921, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0035, "ball_carries": 2.9861, "total_progression": 6.928, "progressive_carries": 0.1921, "shots_off_target": 0.3927, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.99, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.342, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1404, "creation_factor": 1.2395 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.877, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8845, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6005, "team_expected_assists": 0.5954, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6789, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9915, "xa_scale": 0.9915, "opponent_lambda": 3.739, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.5 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2833, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "assist_rate": 0.0385, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0253, "goal_rate": 0.0361, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1351, "total_shots": 0.5279, "rating": 6.6233, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 6.4573, "accurate_pass": 4.56, "duels_won": 1.0281, "total_long_balls": 0.621, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1921, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1253, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6335, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3321, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9266, "crosses_total": 0.5048, "crosses_accurate": 0.1921, "touches": 11.1667, "possession_lost": 3.1805, "dispossessed": 0.1642, "duels_lost": 2.8262, "aerial_won": 0.1921, "aerial_lost": 1.1021, "interceptions": 0.1921, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5048, "total_contest": 0.5813, "won_contest": 0.418, "challenges_lost": 0.6187, "fouls": 0.6839, "fouls_drawn": 0.418, "blocks": 0.1921, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0035, "ball_carries": 2.9861, "total_progression": 6.928, "progressive_carries": 0.1921, "shots_off_target": 0.3927, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.99, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.342, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1404, "creation_factor": 1.2395, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3726, "fifa_rank": 2475.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2833, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "assist_rate": 0.0385, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0253, "goal_rate": 0.0361, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1351, "total_shots": 0.5279, "rating": 6.6233, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 6.4573, "accurate_pass": 4.56, "duels_won": 1.0281, "total_long_balls": 0.621, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1921, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1253, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6335, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3321, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9266, "crosses_total": 0.5048, "crosses_accurate": 0.1921, "touches": 11.1667, "possession_lost": 3.1805, "dispossessed": 0.1642, "duels_lost": 2.8262, "aerial_won": 0.1921, "aerial_lost": 1.1021, "interceptions": 0.1921, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5048, "total_contest": 0.5813, "won_contest": 0.418, "challenges_lost": 0.6187, "fouls": 0.6839, "fouls_drawn": 0.418, "blocks": 0.1921, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0035, "ball_carries": 2.9861, "total_progression": 6.928, "progressive_carries": 0.1921, "shots_off_target": 0.3927, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.99, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.342, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0125, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1404, "creation_factor": 1.2395, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0125, "scorer_weight": 0.0144, "squad_weight_total": 0.8874, "weight_share": 0.0163, "finishing_factor": 1.1404, "appearance_weight": 0.5, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2833, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "assist_rate": 0.0385, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0253, "goal_rate": 0.0361, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1351, "total_shots": 0.5279, "rating": 6.6233, "minutes": 21.99, "total_pass": 6.4573, "accurate_pass": 4.56, "duels_won": 1.0281, "total_long_balls": 0.621, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1921, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1253, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6335, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3321, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9266, "crosses_total": 0.5048, "crosses_accurate": 0.1921, "touches": 11.1667, "possession_lost": 3.1805, "dispossessed": 0.1642, "duels_lost": 2.8262, "aerial_won": 0.1921, "aerial_lost": 1.1021, "interceptions": 0.1921, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5048, "total_contest": 0.5813, "won_contest": 0.418, "challenges_lost": 0.6187, "fouls": 0.6839, "fouls_drawn": 0.418, "blocks": 0.1921, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0035, "ball_carries": 2.9861, "total_progression": 6.928, "progressive_carries": 0.1921, "shots_off_target": 0.3927, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.99, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.342, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0125, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0105, "finishing_factor": 1.1404, "creation_factor": 1.2395, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0105, "provider_weight": 0.0131, "squad_weight_total": 0.5783, "weight_share": 0.0227, "creation_factor": 1.2395, "appearance_weight": 0.5, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.88, "expected_assists": 0.6, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 318, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 6.79, "possession_estimated_pct": 46.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Karim Adeyemi", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "David Soria" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.518, "xg_contribution": 0.4223, "xg_multiplier": 1.1444, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "David Soria", "role": "GK", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.482 } ], "duel_analysis": "Karim Adeyemi (LW) is slightly favored against David Soria in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€41M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.14 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.422 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Lamine Yamal", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 237000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Ramón Terrats" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.44, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.655, "xg_contribution": 0.8537, "xg_multiplier": 1.3166, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ramón Terrats", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.345 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lamine Yamal (RW) has a clear attacking advantage against Ramón Terrats in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 66%. The quality gap is significant (€237M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.32 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.854 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Gabriel Jesus", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 17600000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.607, "defenders": [ "Zaid Romero", "Andrés García", "Johan Mojica" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.452, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "numerical_situation": "1v3", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2714, "xg_multiplier": 1.0276, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Zaid Romero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2400000, "tackles_attempted": 0.6, "tackles_won": 0.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Andrés García", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6500000, "tackles_attempted": 0.7, "tackles_won": 0.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Johan Mojica", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 0.6, "tackles_won": 0.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gabriel Jesus (ST) is evenly matched against Zaid Romero and Andrés García and Johan Mojica in a 3-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.271 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Pedri", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 164000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Mario Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.531, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.568, "xg_contribution": 0.1041, "xg_multiplier": 1.2175, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mario Martín", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.432 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedri (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Mario Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€164M vs €11M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.22 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.104 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Fermín López", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 113000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.896, "defenders": [ "Mario Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.531, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.575, "xg_contribution": 0.293, "xg_multiplier": 1.2281, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mario Martín", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.425 } ], "duel_analysis": "Fermín López (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Mario Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 58%. The quality gap is significant (€113M vs €11M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.23 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.293 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Enes Ünal", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 6800000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.484, "defenders": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Eric García" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.833, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1707, "xg_multiplier": 0.7602, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Eric García", "role": "CB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enes Ünal (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pau Cubarsí and Eric García in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€7M vs €66M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.76 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.171 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ivan Azón", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Eric García" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.833, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1664, "xg_multiplier": 0.7237, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Eric García", "role": "CB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ivan Azón (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pau Cubarsí and Eric García in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €66M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.72 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.166 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ramón Terrats", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Lamine Yamal", "Gerard Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "RW", "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.816, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1314, "xg_multiplier": 0.7051, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lamine Yamal", "role": "RW", "market_value": 237000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Gerard Martín", "role": "RB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ramón Terrats (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Lamine Yamal and Gerard Martín in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €134M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.71 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.131 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Mario Martín", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Pedri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.9, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.272, "xg_contribution": 0.0994, "xg_multiplier": 0.7825, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pedri", "role": "CM", "market_value": 164000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.728 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mario Martín (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pedri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€11M vs €164M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.78 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.099 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Orel Mangala", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 8600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.506, "defenders": [ "Pedri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.9, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.264, "xg_contribution": 0.0287, "xg_multiplier": 0.7704, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pedri", "role": "CM", "market_value": 164000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736 } ], "duel_analysis": "Orel Mangala (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pedri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€9M vs €164M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.77 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.029 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Nemanja Gudelj", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Rodri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.214, "xg_contribution": 0.0586, "xg_multiplier": 0.697, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rodri", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.786 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nemanja Gudelj (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Rodri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €54M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.70 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.878, "away_midfield_power": 0.503, "home_creative_power": 0.926, "away_creative_power": 0.399, "home_defensive_power": 0.711, "away_defensive_power": 0.445, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.635, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Rodri", "Pedri", "Fermín López" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Nemanja Gudelj", "Mario Martín", "Orel Mangala", "Ramón Terrats" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 53.8, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 46.2, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.4, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 7.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.9, "home_throughball_threat": 3.4, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Pedri vs Mario Martín", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.054, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.95 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.08, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "4-3-3 creates structural superiority against 3-5-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition." }, "home_lambda": 3.739, "away_lambda": 0.877, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Karim Adeyemi": { "opponents": [ "David Soria" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lamine Yamal": { "opponents": [ "Ramón Terrats" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel" }, "Gabriel Jesus": { "opponents": [ "Zaid Romero", "Andrés García", "Johan Mojica" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pedri": { "opponents": [ "Mario Martín", "Orel Mangala" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Fermín López": { "opponents": [ "Mario Martín", "Orel Mangala" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pau Cubarsí": { "opponents": [ "Enes Ünal", "Ivan Azón" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Eric García": { "opponents": [ "Enes Ünal", "Ivan Azón" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gerard Martín": { "opponents": [ "Ramón Terrats" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Rodri": { "opponents": [ "Nemanja Gudelj", "Ramón Terrats" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Joan García": { "opponents": [ "Enes Ünal", "Ivan Azón" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Xavi Espart": { "opponents": [ "Enes Ünal" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "David Soria": { "opponents": [ "Karim Adeyemi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ramón Terrats": { "opponents": [ "Lamine Yamal", "Gerard Martín", "Rodri" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Zaid Romero": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Jesus" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Andrés García": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Jesus" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Johan Mojica": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Jesus" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mario Martín": { "opponents": [ "Pedri", "Fermín López" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Enes Ünal": { "opponents": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Eric García" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ivan Azón": { "opponents": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Eric García" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Orel Mangala": { "opponents": [ "Pedri", "Fermín López" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nemanja Gudelj": { "opponents": [ "Rodri" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Djené": { "opponents": [ "Lamine Yamal" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Pedri vs Mario Martín). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.94, Away: 0.66. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8584, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0732, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.056, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0026, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9074, "home_midfield_factor": 1.054, "away_midfield_factor": 0.95, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.779, "away_avg_quality": 0.4656, "avg_quality_gap": 0.3135, "squad_value_gap_log": 2.6293, "top5_value_gap_log": 2.6432, "attack_value_gap_log": 2.6188, "elite_count_gap": 6, "combined_quality_gap": 0.7143, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.3928, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2286, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.9445, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.7959 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.054, "result": 1.8929 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.08, "result": 2.0443 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 2.3509 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.1865, "result": 2.7894 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 2.8191 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0026, "result": 2.8264 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0732, "result": 2.8996 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 2.8996, "result": 2.8996, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.7143, "factor": 1.3928, "pre": 2.8996, "result": 4.0388 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 4.0388 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 4.259 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.8963, "result": 3.4923 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 3.4923, "result": 3.492, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.02, "result": 3.562 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 3.562, "result": 3.562, "available": false }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1836, "pre": 3.562, "result": 4.216 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 4.216 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.8868, "input_total": 4.616, "result": 3.7389 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 3.7389, "result": 3.739, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 3.739 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.6552, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8289 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.95, "result": 0.7875 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 0.7481 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7481 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.8479, "result": 0.6343 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8584, "result": 0.5445 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9074, "result": 0.494 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.056, "result": 0.55 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.55, "result": 0.6, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": true }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.7143, "factor": 0.7714, "pre": 0.6, "result": 0.65 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.65 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1961, "result": 0.8461 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.9877, "result": 0.8784 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.8784, "result": 0.878, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.2, "result": 1.054 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.054, "result": 1.054, "available": false }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9386, "pre": 1.054, "result": 0.989 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 0.989 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.8868, "input_total": 4.616, "result": 0.8771 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 0.8771, "result": 0.877, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 0.877 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1961, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "FC Barcelona", "away_squad": "Getafe", "home_goals_per90": 3.6666666666666665, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 4.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.896, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.988, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.7143, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1836, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9386, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 3.562, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.054, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 3.4923, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.8784, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 3.739, "final_away_lambda": 0.877 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 1, "opponent_position": 11, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1865, "attack_index": 1.798, "defense_concede_index": 0.83, "form_multiplier": 1.046, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.74, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.26, "team_ppg": 2.25, "opponent_ppg": 1.25 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 11, "opponent_position": 1, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8479, "attack_index": 0.731, "defense_concede_index": 0.922, "form_multiplier": 0.954, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.11, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.4, "team_ppg": 1.25, "opponent_ppg": 2.25 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Barcelona vs Getafe. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-3-3 vs 3-5-2 (duel lambdas: Home 3.492, Away 0.878). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 3.739, Away 0.877 (most likely score 3-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "FC Barcelona", "away_squad": "Getafe", "home_goals_per90": 3.6666666666666665, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 4.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.896, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.988, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 3.739, "away_lambda": 0.877, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 3.492, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.878 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-10T13:32:58Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }