{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261010", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0981, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Arsenal", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2076, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0981 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0937 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.084 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0793 }, { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0688 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0384, "0-1": 0.0437, "0-2": 0.0258, "0-3": 0.01, "0-4": 0.0029, "0-5": 0.0007, "1-0": 0.0793, "1-1": 0.0937, "1-2": 0.0543, "1-3": 0.0211, "1-4": 0.0062, "1-5": 0.0014, "2-0": 0.084, "2-1": 0.0981, "2-2": 0.0572, "2-3": 0.0223, "2-4": 0.0065, "2-5": 0.0015, "3-0": 0.059, "3-1": 0.0688, "3-2": 0.0402, "3-3": 0.0156, "3-4": 0.0046, "3-5": 0.0011, "4-0": 0.0311, "4-1": 0.0362, "4-2": 0.0212, "4-3": 0.0082, "4-4": 0.0024, "4-5": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.0131, "5-1": 0.0153, "5-2": 0.0089, "5-3": 0.0035, "5-4": 0.001, "6-0": 0.0046, "6-1": 0.0054, "6-2": 0.0031, "6-3": 0.0012, "7-0": 0.0014, "7-1": 0.0016, "7-2": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5884, "draw": 0.2076, "away_win": 0.204 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6351, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3649, "btts_yes": 0.6054, "btts_no": 0.3946, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3113, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1217 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.79, "MCR": 7.12, "ATR": 7.1, "GK": 6.89 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.89, "MCR": 6.9, "ATR": 6.9, "GK": 6.97 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Arsenal vs Leeds. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 7 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Viktor Gyökeres, Bukayo Saka, Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Declan Rice vs Ethan Ampadu). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.10, Away: 0.90. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle." }, "confidence": 0.76, "home_lambda": 2.106, "away_lambda": 1.167, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5884, "draw": 0.2076, "away_win": 0.204 }, "favorite": "Arsenal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5884, "fair_spread": 0.939, "fair_total": 3.273, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Arsenal", "estimate": 2.106, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Leeds", "estimate": 1.167, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6351, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6054, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Arsenal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3113, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Leeds", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1217, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Bukayo Saka (Arsenal)", "estimate": 0.5246, "probability": 0.4082, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds)", "estimate": 0.3215, "probability": 0.2749, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Bukayo Saka (Arsenal)", "estimate": 0.2811, "probability": 0.245, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Nico Elvedi (Leeds)", "estimate": 0.1495, "probability": 0.1389, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.273, "expected_total_shots": 30, "expected_total_passes": 868, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.1, "possession_home_pct": 51.9, "possession_away_pct": 48.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Arsenal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5884, "script": "Arsenal is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +0.94 goals and fair total 3.27.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 15 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Leeds must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Arsenal lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Arsenal chance creation leans on Bukayo Saka against James Justin, Nico Elvedi in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Arsenal: starters carry the main goal usage through Viktor Gyökeres, Bukayo Saka; bench watchlist: Martín Zubimendi, Noni Madueke, Gabriel Martinelli.", "Leeds: starters carry the main goal usage through Dominic Calvert-Lewin; bench watchlist: Harry Wilson, Jean-Mattéo Bahoya, Sean Longstaff.", "Assist usage should flow through Bukayo Saka, Nico Elvedi; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Arsenal tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 15 total first-half shots, and 1.64 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Leeds is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Arsenal.", "Leeds wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Arsenal": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Jurriën Timber": { "player_id": 958959, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 179, "market_value": 73000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6939, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 26, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 50, "possession_lost": 9.3189, "dispossessed": 0.6852, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.1033, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2196, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0966, "expected_assists": 0.0665, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.1203, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.71, "opponent_faced": "Jayden Bogle", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0921, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0643, "finishing_factor": 1.1977, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363650, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363646, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023987, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 38, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023933, "match_date": "2026-03-04", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0747, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023971, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3958, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024012, "match_date": "2026-02-22", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1966, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025018, "match_date": "2026-02-18", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025185, "match_date": "2026-02-12", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0972, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025158, "match_date": "2026-02-07", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0217, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025134, "match_date": "2026-01-31", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.144, "expected_assists": 0.2103, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 384, "combined_rank_score": 246.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 286.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.06, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 206.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6939, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jurriën Timber", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Pablo Fornals", "ranking": 379 }, { "player_name": "Bashar Resan", "ranking": 380 }, { "player_name": "Casemiro", "ranking": 381 }, { "player_name": "Waldemar Anton", "ranking": 382 }, { "player_name": "Alfie McCalmont", "ranking": 383 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ho-Yeon Jung", "ranking": 385 }, { "player_name": "Yong-seung Kwon", "ranking": 386 }, { "player_name": "Kim Hee-Seung", "ranking": 387 }, { "player_name": "Mykola Matvienko", "ranking": 388 }, { "player_name": "Aji Alese", "ranking": 389 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 32, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", 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"margin": -0.084625 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.029009 } ], "others_margin": 0.019763 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.3139642477035522, "model_output": 1.314, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1576 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1549 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0652 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0674 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.067 } ], "others": -0.1309, "total": 1.314, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.121104 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119142 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.04621 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.045612 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.04529 } ], "others_margin": -0.095074 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.34273573756217957, "model_output": 0.3427, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1164 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0507 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": -0.0521, "total": 0.3427, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.116405 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050733 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.020126 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.019358 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.009927 } ], "others_margin": -0.052029 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.760921001434326, "model_output": 6.7609, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0224 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0179 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": -0.0088, "total": 6.7609, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.022433 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.017926 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.011419 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011272 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.010962 } ], "others_margin": -0.008887 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0147, quality 0.770)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9074, "tackles": 1.4263, "tackles_won": 0.8571, "clearances": 3.153, "aerial_won": 1.3333, "total_shots": 0.3478, "rating": 6.7609, "minutes": 81.46, "total_pass": 54.815, "accurate_pass": 51.2027, "duels_won": 3.5658, "total_long_balls": 1.4774, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4708, "total_own_half_passes": 32.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0698, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5241, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1329, "crosses_total": 0.3199, "crosses_accurate": 0.1122, "touches": 67.7189, "possession_lost": 5.4995, "dispossessed": 1.064, "duels_lost": 4.7646, "aerial_lost": 2.0288, "total_contest": 0.3799, "won_contest": 0.2677, "ball_recovery": 2.0886, "challenges_lost": 0.4283, "fouls": 1.1313, "fouls_drawn": 0.4597, "blocks": 0.4465, "goals": 0.0, 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"total_opp_half_passes": 22.5241, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1329, "crosses_total": 0.315, "crosses_accurate": 0.1122, "touches": 67.7189, "possession_lost": 5.4995, "dispossessed": 1.064, "duels_lost": 4.7646, "aerial_lost": 2.0288, "total_contest": 0.3799, "won_contest": 0.2677, "ball_recovery": 2.0886, "challenges_lost": 0.4283, "fouls": 1.1213, "fouls_drawn": 0.4527, "blocks": 0.4465, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0091, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 19.8043, "total_progression": 56.7307, "progressive_carries": 0.5009, "key_pass": 0.1122, "shots_off_target": 0.3477 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0153, "history_matches": 22, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9051, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8571, "after": 0.844 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.1313, "after": 1.1213 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.4597, "after": 0.4527 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.3478, "after": 0.3425 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9081, "tackles": 1.4263, "tackles_won": 0.844, "clearances": 3.153, "aerial_won": 1.3333, "total_shots": 0.3477, "rating": 6.7609, "minutes": 81.46, "total_pass": 54.815, "accurate_pass": 51.2027, "duels_won": 3.5658, "total_long_balls": 1.4774, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4708, "total_own_half_passes": 32.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0698, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5241, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1329, "crosses_total": 0.315, "crosses_accurate": 0.1122, "touches": 67.7189, "possession_lost": 5.4995, "dispossessed": 1.064, "duels_lost": 4.7646, "aerial_lost": 2.0288, "total_contest": 0.3799, "won_contest": 0.2677, "ball_recovery": 2.0886, "challenges_lost": 0.4283, "fouls": 1.1213, "fouls_drawn": 0.4527, "blocks": 0.4465, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0091, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 19.8043, "total_progression": 56.7307, "progressive_carries": 0.5009, "key_pass": 0.1122, "shots_off_target": 0.3477 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9081, "tackles": 1.4263, "tackles_won": 0.844, "clearances": 3.153, "aerial_won": 1.3333, "total_shots": 0.3477, "rating": 6.7609, "minutes": 81.46, "total_pass": 54.815, "accurate_pass": 51.2027, "duels_won": 3.5658, "total_long_balls": 1.4774, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4708, "total_own_half_passes": 32.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0698, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5241, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1329, "crosses_total": 0.315, "crosses_accurate": 0.1122, "touches": 67.7189, "possession_lost": 5.4995, "dispossessed": 1.064, "duels_lost": 4.7646, "aerial_lost": 2.0288, "total_contest": 0.3799, "won_contest": 0.2677, "ball_recovery": 2.0886, "challenges_lost": 0.4283, "fouls": 1.1213, "fouls_drawn": 0.4527, "blocks": 0.4465, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0091, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 19.8043, "total_progression": 56.7307, "progressive_carries": 0.5009, "key_pass": 0.1122, "shots_off_target": 0.3477, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.694, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right 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5.4995, "dispossessed": 1.064, "duels_lost": 4.7646, "aerial_lost": 2.0288, "total_contest": 0.3799, "won_contest": 0.2677, "ball_recovery": 2.0886, "challenges_lost": 0.4283, "fouls": 1.1213, "fouls_drawn": 0.4527, "blocks": 0.4465, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0113, "expected_assists": 0.0442, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 19.8043, "total_progression": 56.7307, "progressive_carries": 0.5009, "key_pass": 0.1122, "shots_off_target": 0.3477, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.694, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.846, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.106, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7004, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1751, "team_expected_assists": 1.4554, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6911, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2385, "xa_scale": 1.2385, "opponent_lambda": 1.167, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0357, "after": 0.0442 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9081, "tackles": 1.4263, "tackles_won": 0.844, "clearances": 3.153, "aerial_won": 1.3333, "total_shots": 0.3477, "rating": 6.7609, "minutes": 81.46, "total_pass": 54.815, "accurate_pass": 51.2027, "duels_won": 3.5658, "total_long_balls": 1.4774, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4708, "total_own_half_passes": 32.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0698, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5241, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1329, "crosses_total": 0.315, "crosses_accurate": 0.1122, "touches": 67.7189, "possession_lost": 5.4995, "dispossessed": 1.064, "duels_lost": 4.7646, "aerial_lost": 2.0288, "total_contest": 0.3799, "won_contest": 0.2677, "ball_recovery": 2.0886, "challenges_lost": 0.4283, "fouls": 1.1213, "fouls_drawn": 0.4527, "blocks": 0.4465, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0113, "expected_assists": 0.0442, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 19.8043, "total_progression": 56.7307, "progressive_carries": 0.5009, "key_pass": 0.1122, "shots_off_target": 0.3477, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.694, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right 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"already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5163, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2316 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9081, "tackles": 1.4263, "tackles_won": 0.844, "clearances": 3.153, "aerial_won": 1.3333, "total_shots": 0.3477, "rating": 6.7609, "minutes": 81.46, "total_pass": 54.815, "accurate_pass": 51.2027, "duels_won": 3.5658, "total_long_balls": 1.4774, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4708, "total_own_half_passes": 32.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0698, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5241, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1329, "crosses_total": 0.315, "crosses_accurate": 0.1122, "touches": 67.7189, "possession_lost": 5.4995, "dispossessed": 1.064, "duels_lost": 4.7646, "aerial_lost": 2.0288, "total_contest": 0.3799, "won_contest": 0.2677, "ball_recovery": 2.0886, "challenges_lost": 0.4283, "fouls": 1.1213, "fouls_drawn": 0.4527, "blocks": 0.4465, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0113, "expected_assists": 0.0442, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 19.8043, "total_progression": 56.7307, "progressive_carries": 0.5009, "key_pass": 0.1122, "shots_off_target": 0.3477, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.694, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0112, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0432, "finishing_factor": 0.846, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0432, "provider_weight": 0.0354, "squad_weight_total": 1.3568, "weight_share": 0.0261, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bukayo Saka", "weight": 0.2249, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2249, "runner_up": "Martin Ødegaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2098 } ] } } ] }, "Gabriel Magalhães": { "player_id": 869792, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 190, "market_value": 70000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.94, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 47, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 30, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, 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"ranking": 222 }, { "player_name": "Ylyas Chouaref", "ranking": 223 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Riquelme", "ranking": 224 }, { "player_name": "Luis Chávez", "ranking": 225 }, { "player_name": "Julio González", "ranking": 226 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ikram Alibaev", "ranking": 228 }, { "player_name": "Roger Brugué", "ranking": 229 }, { "player_name": "Luis Sinisterra", "ranking": 230 }, { "player_name": "Min Junyeong", "ranking": 231 }, { "player_name": "William Saliba", "ranking": 232 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", 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"importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.3864 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.203 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1501 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.1544 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.1362 } ], "others": 0.1174, "total": 2.2571, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.246543 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.108685 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.073387 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.070257 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.061687 } ], "others_margin": 0.053337 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7893555760383606, "model_output": 0.7894, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1936 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0638 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0346 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.015 } ], "others": -0.0045, "total": 0.7894, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.193575 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.06377 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.034563 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.015777 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.015004 } ], "others_margin": -0.004465 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.939976692199707, "model_output": 6.94, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0447 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.03 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0142 } ], "others": 0.0307, "total": 6.94, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.044673 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.03001 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.018834 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.016538 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.014226 } ], "others_margin": 0.030564 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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{ "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.11 (squad xG sum 1.7004, xG scale 1.2385, xA scale 1.2385, team xA 1.46 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0421, "tackles": 1.2357, "tackles_won": 0.7174, "clearances": 5.8799, "aerial_won": 2.2867, "total_shots": 0.8019, "rating": 6.94, "minutes": 89.96, "total_pass": 54.0511, "accurate_pass": 47.4365, "duels_won": 4.9593, "total_long_balls": 5.6729, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9374, "total_own_half_passes": 30.439, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.0305, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6121, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.406, "crosses_total": 0.1387, "crosses_accurate": 0.0113, "touches": 69.5794, "possession_lost": 8.0363, "dispossessed": 0.6166, "duels_lost": 3.8956, "aerial_lost": 2.137, 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true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023987, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1475, "expected_assists": 0.0881, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 43, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 360, "combined_rank_score": 232.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 81.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.55, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 384.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7662, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Riccardo Calafiori", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Sharof Mukhiddinov", "ranking": 355 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Cunha", "ranking": 356 }, { "player_name": "Antoine Semenyo", "ranking": 357 }, { "player_name": "Cho Sang-Jun", "ranking": 358 }, { "player_name": "Cristiano Ronaldo", "ranking": 359 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Patrik Schick", "ranking": 361 }, { "player_name": "Tomás Alarcón", "ranking": 362 }, { "player_name": "Elionay", "ranking": 363 }, { "player_name": "Sergej Milinković-Savić", "ranking": 364 }, { "player_name": 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.26546 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.128938 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122557 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.11977 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.103647 } ], "others_margin": 0.005196 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.641331434249878, "model_output": 1.6413, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.3325 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2069 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1667 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1529 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0547 } ], "others": 0.0652, "total": 1.6413, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.215593 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.128593 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.104847 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.095778 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.035315 } ], "others_margin": 0.040572 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8039103150367737, "model_output": 0.8039, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2755 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0662 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0256 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0166 } ], "others": 0.026, "total": 0.8039, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.275546 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.066184 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.025907 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.025599 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.016551 } ], "others_margin": 0.026003 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7662482261657715, "model_output": 6.7662, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0366 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0361, "total": 6.7662, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.036638 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.014509 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01241 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.010752 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010736 } ], "others_margin": -0.036133 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.235, "expected_assists": 0.15, "assists": 0.0961, "assist_rate": 0.0961, "expected_goals": 0.122, "goals": 0.1294, "goal_rate": 0.1294, "shots_on_target": 0.5171, "total_shots": 1.288, "rating": 7.1492, "minutes": 81.41, "total_pass": 51.9714, "accurate_pass": 44.1692, "duels_won": 6.4375, "total_long_balls": 4.4431, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6931, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.2264, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.9845, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.9428, "crosses_total": 3.5715, "crosses_accurate": 0.8838, "touches": 72.9626, "possession_lost": 15.3774, "dispossessed": 1.5099, "duels_lost": 5.1639, "aerial_won": 0.3703, "aerial_lost": 0.4208, "interceptions": 0.6541, "tackles_won": 1.3092, "tackles": 1.9088, "clearances": 1.1683, "total_contest": 1.7863, "won_contest": 0.7261, "challenges_lost": 0.7379, "fouls": 1.5892, "fouls_drawn": 3.4282, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049158 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016485 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.016353 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.01354 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012982 } ], "others_margin": -0.031836 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 26, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.1364, "tackles": 0.1499, "clearances": 0.4501, "blocks": 0.022, "big_chances_created": 0.1013, "big_chances_missed": 0.6179, "xgot": 0.4033, "offsides": 0.3432, "ball_carries": 5.7302, "total_progression": 11.2571, "progressive_carries": 1.0784, "shots_off_target": 1.1263 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 61000000, "quality_factor": 0.8548, "boost_factor": 1.0122, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.317, "goals": 0.3496, "goal_rate": 0.3496, "shots_on_target": 0.7703, "total_shots": 1.8966, "expected_assists": 0.0579, "key_pass": 0.7853, "rating": 6.7472, "minutes": 76.49, "total_pass": 13.1789, "accurate_pass": 8.6054, "duels_won": 2.5465, "total_long_balls": 0.0585, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0114, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0577, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1304, 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2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.34, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "James Justin, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "James Justin, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "James Justin, Nico Elvedi", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.34, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.2055, "skill_edge": 0.1338, "height_edge": 0.006, "attacker_skill": 0.8548, "defender_skill": 0.5575, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "James Justin", "market_value": 12400000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5956 }, { "player": "Nico Elvedi", "market_value": 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"duel_win_rate": 0.34, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "James Justin, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "James Justin, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.091, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.106, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7004, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1751, "team_expected_assists": 1.4554, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6911, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2385, "xa_scale": 1.2385, "opponent_lambda": 1.167, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.3821, "after": 0.4732 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0579, "after": 0.0717 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4732, "goal_rate": 0.4214, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.9286, "total_shots": 2.2864, "expected_assists": 0.0717, "key_pass": 0.7853, "rating": 6.7472, "minutes": 76.49, "total_pass": 13.1789, "accurate_pass": 8.6054, "duels_won": 2.5465, "total_long_balls": 0.0585, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0114, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0577, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1304, "crosses_total": 0.0806, "crosses_accurate": 0.0063, "touches": 24.1258, "possession_lost": 9.9038, "dispossessed": 1.0988, "duels_lost": 5.8311, "aerial_lost": 1.9529, "total_contest": 1.1379, "won_contest": 0.1185, "ball_recovery": 2.1992, "challenges_lost": 0.3843, "fouls": 1.6026, "fouls_drawn": 1.2234, "assist_rate": 0.131, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.042, "tackles_won": 0.1364, "tackles": 0.1499, "clearances": 0.4501, "blocks": 0.022, "big_chances_created": 0.1013, "big_chances_missed": 0.7449, "xgot": 0.6022, 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1.5065544843673706, "model_output": 1.5066, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2183 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1663 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0631 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0589 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.028 } ], "others": 0.0375, "total": 1.5066, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.218346 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.166257 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.06309 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.058884 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.027972 } ], "others_margin": 0.037484 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8250651359558105, "model_output": 6.8251, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.045 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0295 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0252 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.007 } ], "others": -0.0195, "total": 6.8251, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.045013 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.02954 }, { "name": 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0.2558, "total_contest": 1.3488, "won_contest": 0.825, "challenges_lost": 0.4068, "fouls": 0.3781, "fouls_drawn": 1.845, "blocks": 0.0116, "big_chances_created": 0.0717, "big_chances_missed": 0.0084, "xgot": 0.3318, "ball_carries": 12.1867, "total_progression": 12.4777, "progressive_carries": 0.6693, "shots_off_target": 0.9844 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 69000000, "quality_factor": 0.8692, "boost_factor": 1.013, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0036)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.861, "expected_assists": 0.0607, "assists": 0.0597, "assist_rate": 0.0597, "expected_goals": 0.1326, "goals": 0.1198, "goal_rate": 0.1198, "shots_on_target": 0.5397, "total_shots": 1.525, "rating": 6.8251, "minutes": 73.86, "total_pass": 26.3801, "accurate_pass": 22.5504, "duels_won": 3.4196, "total_long_balls": 1.6513, "accurate_long_balls": 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"before": 1.845, "after": 1.851 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.861, "expected_assists": 0.0607, "assists": 0.0597, "assist_rate": 0.0597, "expected_goals": 0.1326, "goals": 0.1198, "goal_rate": 0.1198, "shots_on_target": 0.5397, "total_shots": 1.525, "rating": 6.8251, "minutes": 73.86, "total_pass": 26.3801, "accurate_pass": 22.5504, "duels_won": 3.4196, "total_long_balls": 1.6513, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7965, "total_own_half_passes": 7.89, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.0625, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4879, "crosses_total": 0.2637, "crosses_accurate": 0.0792, "touches": 37.6378, "possession_lost": 6.7952, "dispossessed": 1.1969, "duels_lost": 3.5378, "aerial_won": 0.3708, "aerial_lost": 1.0874, "interceptions": 0.34, "tackles_won": 0.2521, "tackles": 0.3789, "clearances": 0.2558, "total_contest": 1.3488, "won_contest": 0.825, 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"duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Anton Stach", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "duel_win_rate": 0.434, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0213, "skill_edge": 0.0705, "height_edge": -0.056, "attacker_skill": 0.8742, "defender_skill": 0.7176, "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.95, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Anton Stach", "market_value": 27000000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.7176 } ], "xg_override": 0.1354 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3708, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.525, "after": 1.5575 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9844, "after": 1.0054 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5397, "after": 0.5512 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.3318, "after": 0.3389 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.11 (squad 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"changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1354, "after": 0.1677 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0607, "after": 0.0752 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.861, "expected_assists": 0.0752, "assist_rate": 0.0597, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1677, "goal_rate": 0.1224, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5512, "total_shots": 1.5575, "rating": 6.8251, "minutes": 73.86, "total_pass": 26.3801, "accurate_pass": 22.5504, "duels_won": 3.4196, "total_long_balls": 1.6513, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7965, "total_own_half_passes": 7.89, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.0625, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4879, "crosses_total": 0.2637, "crosses_accurate": 0.0792, "touches": 37.6378, "possession_lost": 6.7952, "dispossessed": 1.1969, "duels_lost": 3.5378, "aerial_won": 1.0, 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"is_starting_11", "margin": 0.163799 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.079469 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.073366 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.047565 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.029459 } ], "others_margin": -0.046667 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.148004055023193, "model_output": 7.148, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0918 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0375 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0325 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0244 } ], "others": 0.0109, "total": 7.148, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.102049 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.091844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.037536 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.032476 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.024434 } ], "others_margin": 0.010794 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0165, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9296, "expected_assists": 0.1685, "assists": 0.1714, "assist_rate": 0.1714, "expected_goals": 0.1401, "goals": 0.1641, "goal_rate": 0.1641, "shots_on_target": 0.4622, "total_shots": 1.2996, "rating": 7.148, "minutes": 78.22, "total_pass": 48.112, "accurate_pass": 42.4352, "duels_won": 2.4117, "total_long_balls": 3.1434, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3566, "total_own_half_passes": 15.2348, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.4678, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.8772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.9674, "crosses_total": 0.9766, "crosses_accurate": 0.2585, "touches": 58.5627, "possession_lost": 10.0662, "dispossessed": 0.4572, "duels_lost": 2.9658, "aerial_won": 0.0829, "aerial_lost": 0.3508, "interceptions": 0.2605, "tackles_won": 0.6428, "tackles": 1.0158, "clearances": 0.5007, "total_contest": 1.5852, "won_contest": 0.3988, "challenges_lost": 0.4125, "fouls": 0.559, "fouls_drawn": 0.9142, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4714, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0711, "ball_carries": 23.9091, "total_progression": 62.0365, "progressive_carries": 1.8282, "shots_off_target": 0.8374 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.0165, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0102)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9296, "expected_assists": 0.1685, "assists": 0.1697, "assist_rate": 0.1697, "expected_goals": 0.1401, "goals": 0.168, "goal_rate": 0.168, "shots_on_target": 0.463, "total_shots": 1.3083, "rating": 7.148, "minutes": 78.22, "total_pass": 48.112, "accurate_pass": 42.4352, "duels_won": 2.4117, "total_long_balls": 3.1434, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3566, 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"opponent_defenders": "James Justin", "opponent_faced": "James Justin", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "James Justin", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "duel_win_rate": 0.528, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1581, "skill_edge": 0.1276, "height_edge": -0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.8792, "defender_skill": 0.5956, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "James Justin", "market_value": 12400000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5956 } ], "xg_override": 0.1622 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0829, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3083, "after": 1.5151 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.8374, "after": 0.9698 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.463, "after": 0.5362 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.168, "after": 0.1946 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1401, "after": 0.1622 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0711, "after": 0.0823 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.11 (squad xG sum 1.7004, xG scale 1.2385, xA scale 1.2385, team xA 1.46 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9296, "expected_assists": 0.2087, "assist_rate": 0.1697, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2009, "goal_rate": 0.1946, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5362, "total_shots": 1.5151, "rating": 7.148, "minutes": 78.22, "total_pass": 48.112, "accurate_pass": 42.4352, "duels_won": 2.4117, "total_long_balls": 3.1434, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3566, "total_own_half_passes": 15.2348, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.4678, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.8772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.9674, "crosses_total": 0.9833, "crosses_accurate": 0.2585, "touches": 58.5627, "possession_lost": 10.0662, "dispossessed": 0.4572, "duels_lost": 2.9658, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3508, "interceptions": 0.2578, "tackles_won": 0.6529, "tackles": 1.0158, "clearances": 0.5007, "total_contest": 1.5852, "won_contest": 0.3988, "challenges_lost": 0.4125, "fouls": 0.5533, "fouls_drawn": 0.9104, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4714, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1019, "ball_carries": 23.9091, "total_progression": 62.0365, "progressive_carries": 1.8282, "shots_off_target": 0.9698, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1581, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.528, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "James Justin", "opponent_faced": "James Justin", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1527, "creation_factor": 1.0055 }, "params": { 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"importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1368 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0923 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0572 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0451 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0341 } ], "others": -0.1331, "total": 0.8337, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.13677 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.092295 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.057204 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.045128 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.034073 } ], "others_margin": -0.132995 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.350431442260742, "model_output": 7.3504, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1607 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1106 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0435 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.037 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0354 } ], "others": 0.1143, "total": 7.3504, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.160662 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.11055 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.043529 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.037035 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.035423 } ], "others_margin": 0.11436 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 40, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0128, quality 0.897)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5801, "expected_assists": 0.1579, "assists": 0.1174, "assist_rate": 0.1174, "expected_goals": 0.0448, "goals": 0.0495, "goal_rate": 0.0495, "shots_on_target": 0.2074, "total_shots": 0.8444, "rating": 7.3504, "minutes": 85.17, "total_pass": 65.4662, "accurate_pass": 57.7598, "duels_won": 3.6195, "total_long_balls": 6.3506, "accurate_long_balls": 3.372, "total_own_half_passes": 26.6329, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.4137, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.8333, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.3459, "crosses_total": 3.8282, "crosses_accurate": 0.7879, "touches": 79.9831, "possession_lost": 12.1375, "dispossessed": 0.358, "duels_lost": 2.6131, "aerial_won": 1.074, "aerial_lost": 0.9012, "interceptions": 1.0794, "tackles_won": 0.879, "tackles": 1.8438, "clearances": 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"margin": -0.981019 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.279967 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.070606 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.056915 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.036152 } ], "others_margin": -0.05625 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.15046542882919312, "model_output": 0.1505, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0792 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0143 } ], "others": -0.0173, "total": 0.1505, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.210912 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.079152 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.015454 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.014353 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.014269 } ], "others_margin": -0.017435 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8960394859313965, "model_output": 6.896, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0562 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0554 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0413 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0339 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0138 } ], "others": 0.0227, "total": 6.896, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.056191 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.055434 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.041338 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.033853 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.013793 } ], "others_margin": 0.02268 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1739, "tackles": 0.3428, "tackles_won": 0.2201, "clearances": 1.1815, "aerial_won": 0.4415, "total_shots": 0.087, "rating": 6.896, "minutes": 15.37, "total_pass": 37.9971, "accurate_pass": 35.3875, "duels_won": 2.5086, "total_long_balls": 2.2624, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2435, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.2099, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1134, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 44.6347, "possession_lost": 3.2932, "dispossessed": 0.4646, "duels_lost": 2.0058, "aerial_lost": 1.8701, "total_contest": 0.1905, "won_contest": 0.1566, "ball_recovery": 1.9977, "challenges_lost": 0.2631, "fouls": 0.4933, "fouls_drawn": 0.2371, "blocks": 0.1875, "goals": 0.028, "goal_rate": 0.028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0147, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "shots_on_target": 0.028, "big_chances_created": 0.0397, "xgot": 0.0242, "ball_carries": 9.8715, "total_progression": 34.66, "progressive_carries": 0.2629, "key_pass": 0.2783, "shots_off_target": 0.059, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.38, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1739, "tackles": 0.3428, "tackles_won": 0.2201, "clearances": 1.1815, "aerial_won": 0.4415, "total_shots": 0.087, "rating": 6.896, "minutes": 15.37, "total_pass": 37.9971, "accurate_pass": 35.3875, "duels_won": 2.5086, "total_long_balls": 2.2624, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2435, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.2099, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1134, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 44.6347, "possession_lost": 3.2932, "dispossessed": 0.4646, "duels_lost": 2.0058, "aerial_lost": 1.8701, "total_contest": 0.1905, "won_contest": 0.1566, "ball_recovery": 1.9977, "challenges_lost": 0.2631, "fouls": 0.4933, "fouls_drawn": 0.2371, "blocks": 0.1875, "goal_rate": 0.028, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0147, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "shots_on_target": 0.028, "big_chances_created": 0.0397, "xgot": 0.0242, "ball_carries": 9.8715, "total_progression": 34.66, "progressive_carries": 0.2629, "key_pass": 0.2783, "shots_off_target": 0.059, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.38, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.37, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.787, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.38, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 88.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1739, "tackles": 0.3428, "tackles_won": 0.2201, "clearances": 1.1815, "aerial_won": 0.4415, "total_shots": 0.087, "rating": 6.896, "minutes": 15.37, "total_pass": 37.9971, "accurate_pass": 35.3875, "duels_won": 2.5086, "total_long_balls": 2.2624, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2435, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2596, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.2099, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7375, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1134, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 44.6347, "possession_lost": 3.2932, "dispossessed": 0.4646, "duels_lost": 2.0058, "aerial_lost": 1.8701, "total_contest": 0.1905, "won_contest": 0.1566, "ball_recovery": 1.9977, "challenges_lost": 0.2631, "fouls": 0.4933, "fouls_drawn": 0.2371, "blocks": 0.1875, "goal_rate": 0.028, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0147, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "shots_on_target": 0.028, "big_chances_created": 0.0397, "xgot": 0.0242, "ball_carries": 9.8715, "total_progression": 34.66, "progressive_carries": 0.2629, "key_pass": 0.2783, "shots_off_target": 0.059, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.38, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.37, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.787, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 232, "fifa_rank": 28.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 88.0 } } ] }, "Myles Lewis-Skelly": { "player_id": 1423711, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 49, "height": 178, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7118, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 1.4749, "dispossessed": 0.0958, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, 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"match_id": 16363245, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0734, "expected_assists": 0.0182, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 47, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363633, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.057, "expected_assists": 0.1067, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 81, "accurate_pass": 77, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023963, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 54, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023950, "match_date": "2026-05-18", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023942, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0168, "total_shots": 0, 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"importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7802 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1813 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0571 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0444 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0218 } ], "others": 0.0072, "total": 0.3044, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.831266 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.358383 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.145848 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.130367 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.070795 } ], "others_margin": 0.023723 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1953948736190796, "model_output": 0.1954, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2491 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0117 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0148, "total": 0.1954, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.249099 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.018628 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.015407 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.011698 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.010457 } ], "others_margin": -0.014757 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.711768627166748, "model_output": 6.7118, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0503, "total": 6.7118, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016121 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.016056 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.01211 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011611 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.008744 } ], "others_margin": -0.050431 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0161, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2827, "tackles": 0.4592, "tackles_won": 0.4031, "clearances": 0.7443, "aerial_won": 0.3093, "total_shots": 0.1985, "rating": 6.7118, "minutes": 20.2, "total_pass": 8.2125, "accurate_pass": 7.0893, "duels_won": 1.021, "total_long_balls": 0.2765, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0238, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6549, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1893, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5576, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.0505, "possession_lost": 1.9763, "dispossessed": 0.0958, "duels_lost": 1.0426, "aerial_lost": 0.2329, "total_contest": 0.2811, "won_contest": 0.2481, "ball_recovery": 0.8537, "challenges_lost": 0.2413, "fouls": 0.4397, "fouls_drawn": 0.4817, "blocks": 0.1419, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0704, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 54, "combined_rank_score": 82.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 65.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.62, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 99.0, "fifa_overall": 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"totalShots", "contribution": -0.1694 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0274 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0194 } ], "others": -0.0402, "total": 0.3938, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.316581 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.169379 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.027445 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.023703 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.019411 } ], "others_margin": -0.04019 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.728917598724365, "model_output": 6.7289, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], 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"contribution": -0.1404 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0174 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.012 } ], "others": 0.0032, "total": 0.2294, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.568019 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.106319 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.078248 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.075725 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.051877 } ], "others_margin": 0.014283 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6588841676712036, "model_output": 0.6589, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4885 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0625 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0362 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0338 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0318 } ], "others": -0.0074, "total": 0.6589, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.488455 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.062477 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.036249 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.033783 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.031841 } ], "others_margin": -0.007475 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.675792217254639, "model_output": 6.6758, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0851 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0465 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0255 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0153 } ], "others": -0.0266, "total": 6.6758, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.085127 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.046497 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.025862 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.025543 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015286 } ], "others_margin": -0.026485 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0123, quality 0.791)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6808, "expected_assists": 0.0784, "assists": 0.0836, "assist_rate": 0.0836, "expected_goals": 0.0597, "goals": 0.086, "goal_rate": 0.086, "shots_on_target": 0.2322, "total_shots": 0.667, "rating": 6.6758, "minutes": 22.55, "total_pass": 6.5287, "accurate_pass": 4.5563, "duels_won": 1.1803, "total_long_balls": 0.458, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2728, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.9745, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3656, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5817, "crosses_total": 0.7826, "crosses_accurate": 0.1635, "touches": 13.0096, "possession_lost": 5.0918, "dispossessed": 0.6467, "duels_lost": 1.8779, "aerial_won": 0.0763, "aerial_lost": 0.3142, "interceptions": 0.115, "tackles_won": 0.1626, "tackles": 0.3488, "clearances": 0.297, 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"description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7056, "expected_assists": 0.0813, "assists": 0.0866, "assist_rate": 0.0866, "expected_goals": 0.0619, "goals": 0.0891, "goal_rate": 0.0891, "shots_on_target": 0.2407, "total_shots": 0.6913, "rating": 6.6758, "minutes": 23.37, "total_pass": 6.7667, "accurate_pass": 4.7224, "duels_won": 1.2233, "total_long_balls": 0.4747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2827, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.01, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5612, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7123, "crosses_total": 0.8111, "crosses_accurate": 0.1695, "touches": 13.4838, "possession_lost": 5.2774, "dispossessed": 0.6467, "duels_lost": 1.9464, "aerial_won": 0.0791, "aerial_lost": 0.3142, "interceptions": 0.1192, "tackles_won": 0.1685, "tackles": 0.3615, "clearances": 0.3078, "total_contest": 0.8205, "won_contest": 0.5773, "challenges_lost": 0.0822, "fouls": 0.6365, "fouls_drawn": 0.2054, 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0.2026, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1367, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9612, "crosses_total": 0.7597, "crosses_accurate": 0.2294, "touches": 11.6828, "possession_lost": 3.6037, "dispossessed": 0.225, "duels_lost": 1.6572, "aerial_lost": 0.3391, "total_contest": 1.0644, "won_contest": 0.3083, "ball_recovery": 0.6539, "challenges_lost": 0.2004, "fouls": 0.2441, "fouls_drawn": 0.3505, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1608, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1749, "clearances": 0.1263, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2569, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1373, "ball_carries": 4.042, "total_progression": 18.9072, "progressive_carries": 1.3665, "shots_off_target": 0.3667 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-09T10:04:40.622139+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1516, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 22.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1289, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1095, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0931, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0791, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0673, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0572, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 54.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0486, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0413, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-22", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 0.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0362, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 12.7865, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 10.3357, "accuratePass": 12.3263, "totalShots": 0.9052 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.04821430519223213, "model_output": 0.0482, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0916 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"base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0784 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0077 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0052 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0043 } ], "others": -0.0219, "total": 0.0611, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.485501 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.223256 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.079802 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.057469 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.05062 } ], "others_margin": -0.307722 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.17394043505191803, "model_output": 0.1739, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2149 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0327 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0162 } ], "others": -0.0628, "total": 0.1739, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.511123 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.10722 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.068061 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.066841 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.066168 } ], "others_margin": -0.307835 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5406067967414856, "model_output": 0.5406, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4962 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1444 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0487 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": -0.0238 } ], "others": -0.1643, "total": 0.5406, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.496197 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.144384 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.048707 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.039334 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": -0.023772 } ], "others_margin": -0.164373 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06072375923395157, "model_output": 0.0607, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0044 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.003 } ], "others": 0.0051, "total": 0.0607, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.398519 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.121987 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.10448 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.078776 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.051978 } ], "others_margin": 0.088287 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6644648909568787, "model_output": 0.6645, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2437 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.048 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0304 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0315 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0301 } ], "others": 0.0942, "total": 0.6645, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.448831 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.105867 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.061649 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.060064 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.054286 } ], "others_margin": 0.152751 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.705986976623535, "model_output": 6.706, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0745 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0089 } ], "others": -0.0002, "total": 6.706, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.074487 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.013774 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.011934 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.011494 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.008867 } ], "others_margin": -0.000208 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0151, quality 0.837)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0489, "goals": 0.062, "goal_rate": 0.062, "shots_on_target": 0.1766, "total_shots": 0.5488, "expected_assists": 0.0616, "key_pass": 0.6745, "rating": 6.706, "minutes": 16.26, "total_pass": 6.884, "accurate_pass": 5.5769, "duels_won": 1.0383, "total_long_balls": 0.2057, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1388, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0361, "crosses_total": 0.7712, "crosses_accurate": 0.2329, "touches": 11.8592, "possession_lost": 3.6581, "dispossessed": 0.2284, "duels_lost": 1.6822, "aerial_lost": 0.3442, "total_contest": 1.0805, "won_contest": 0.313, "ball_recovery": 0.6638, "challenges_lost": 0.2034, "fouls": 0.2478, "fouls_drawn": 0.3558, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1632, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1775, "clearances": 0.1282, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2608, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1394, "ball_carries": 4.103, "total_progression": 19.1927, "progressive_carries": 1.3871, "shots_off_target": 0.3722 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 54000000, "quality_factor": 0.837, "boost_factor": 1.0151, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0020)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0489, "goals": 0.0619, "goal_rate": 0.0619, "shots_on_target": 0.1763, "total_shots": 0.5477, "expected_assists": 0.0616, "key_pass": 0.6745, "rating": 6.706, "minutes": 16.26, "total_pass": 6.884, "accurate_pass": 5.5769, "duels_won": 1.0383, "total_long_balls": 0.2057, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1388, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0361, "crosses_total": 0.7709, "crosses_accurate": 0.2329, "touches": 11.8592, "possession_lost": 3.6581, "dispossessed": 0.2284, "duels_lost": 1.6822, "aerial_lost": 0.3442, "total_contest": 1.0805, "won_contest": 0.313, "ball_recovery": 0.6638, "challenges_lost": 0.2034, "fouls": 0.2473, "fouls_drawn": 0.3551, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1629, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1775, "clearances": 0.1282, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2608, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1391, "ball_carries": 4.103, "total_progression": 19.1927, "progressive_carries": 1.3871, "shots_off_target": 0.3722 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.002, "history_matches": 28, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1807, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.3 to 24.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.75)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0733, "goals": 0.0928, "goal_rate": 0.0928, "shots_on_target": 0.2645, "total_shots": 0.8228, "expected_assists": 0.0924, "key_pass": 1.0117, "rating": 6.706, "minutes": 24.74, "total_pass": 10.326, "accurate_pass": 8.3653, "duels_won": 1.5575, "total_long_balls": 0.3085, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2082, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5541, "crosses_total": 1.1563, "crosses_accurate": 0.3493, "touches": 17.7888, "possession_lost": 5.4871, "dispossessed": 0.2284, "duels_lost": 2.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.3442, "total_contest": 1.6208, "won_contest": 0.4695, "ball_recovery": 0.9957, "challenges_lost": 0.2034, "fouls": 0.371, "fouls_drawn": 0.5327, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2443, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2662, "clearances": 0.1923, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3912, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1391, "ball_carries": 6.1545, "total_progression": 28.789, "progressive_carries": 2.0806, "shots_off_target": 0.5583, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 24.74, "projection_minutes": 16.26, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.751 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0733, "goals": 0.0928, "goal_rate": 0.0928, "shots_on_target": 0.2645, "total_shots": 0.8228, "expected_assists": 0.0924, "key_pass": 1.0117, "rating": 6.706, "minutes": 24.74, "total_pass": 10.326, "accurate_pass": 8.3653, "duels_won": 1.5575, "total_long_balls": 0.3085, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2082, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5541, "crosses_total": 1.1563, "crosses_accurate": 0.3493, "touches": 17.7888, "possession_lost": 5.4871, "dispossessed": 0.2284, "duels_lost": 2.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.3442, "total_contest": 1.6208, "won_contest": 0.4695, "ball_recovery": 0.9957, "challenges_lost": 0.2034, "fouls": 0.371, "fouls_drawn": 0.5327, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2443, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2662, "clearances": 0.1923, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3912, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1391, "ball_carries": 6.1545, "total_progression": 28.789, "progressive_carries": 2.0806, "shots_off_target": 0.5583, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.11 (squad xG sum 1.7004, xG scale 1.2385, xA scale 1.2385, team xA 1.46 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0908, "goal_rate": 0.0928, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2645, "total_shots": 0.8228, "expected_assists": 0.1144, "key_pass": 1.0117, "rating": 6.706, "minutes": 24.74, "total_pass": 10.326, "accurate_pass": 8.3653, "duels_won": 1.5575, "total_long_balls": 0.3085, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2082, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5541, "crosses_total": 1.1563, "crosses_accurate": 0.3493, "touches": 17.7888, "possession_lost": 5.4871, "dispossessed": 0.2284, "duels_lost": 2.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.3442, "total_contest": 1.6208, "won_contest": 0.4695, "ball_recovery": 0.9957, "challenges_lost": 0.2034, "fouls": 0.371, "fouls_drawn": 0.5327, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2443, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2662, "clearances": 0.1923, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3912, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1391, "ball_carries": 6.1545, "total_progression": 28.789, "progressive_carries": 2.0806, "shots_off_target": 0.5583, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.787, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1582, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.106, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7004, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1751, "team_expected_assists": 1.4554, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6911, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2385, "xa_scale": 1.2385, "opponent_lambda": 1.167, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.751 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0733, "after": 0.0908 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0924, "after": 0.1144 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0908, "goal_rate": 0.0928, "goals": 0, 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"Arsenal", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2608, "expected_assists": 0.0259, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023963, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3989, 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"league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023942, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025045, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.033, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025039, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2472, "expected_assists": 0.0037, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 635, "combined_rank_score": 324.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 143.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3333, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 505.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.757, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kai Havertz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kingsley Coman", "ranking": 630 }, { "player_name": "Ferran Torres", "ranking": 631 }, { "player_name": "Achraf Hakimi", "ranking": 632 }, { "player_name": "Bong-jin Choi", "ranking": 633 }, { "player_name": "João Félix", "ranking": 634 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Makhmud Makhamadzhonov", "ranking": 636 }, { "player_name": "Ji-hyun Kim", "ranking": 637 }, { "player_name": "Nelson Sepúlveda", "ranking": 638 }, { "player_name": "Ratinho", "ranking": 639 }, { "player_name": "Trincão", "ranking": 640 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 17, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 17, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.862683522414773, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.366, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0224, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Arsenal", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.5, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (17 historical appearances) to 26.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.37); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1996, "goals": 0.2251, "goal_rate": 0.2251, "shots_on_target": 0.4527, "total_shots": 1.2634, "expected_assists": 0.0661, "key_pass": 0.5539, "rating": 6.757, "minutes": 27.13, "total_pass": 10.0887, "accurate_pass": 7.864, "duels_won": 3.1319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6769, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4522, "crosses_total": 0.2292, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.9111, "possession_lost": 4.3198, "dispossessed": 0.3356, "duels_lost": 3.0299, "aerial_lost": 1.7484, "total_contest": 0.6127, "won_contest": 0.3064, "ball_recovery": 0.8367, "challenges_lost": 0.1408, "fouls": 0.4988, "fouls_drawn": 0.8367, "assists": 0.2696, "assist_rate": 0.2696, "interceptions": 0.2696, "tackles_won": 0.4584, "tackles": 0.8936, "clearances": 0.4104, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.8116, "big_chances_missed": 0.3138, "xgot": 0.0192, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3889, "total_progression": 19.8113, "progressive_carries": 0.7673, "shots_off_target": 0.8107 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-09T10:04:40.622139+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1601, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1361, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1157, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0983, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0836, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.071, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-18", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0604, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0513, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 34.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0436, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0371, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 17.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.3607, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 15.6686, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 12.0068, "accuratePass": 15.6932, "totalShots": 1.995 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.19955769181251526, "model_output": 0.1996, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.083 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0203 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0096 } ], "others": 0.0319, "total": 0.1996, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.540026 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.161562 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.079091 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.069293 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.058958 } ], "others_margin": 0.174149 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.22513964772224426, "model_output": 0.2251, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.076 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0109 } ], "others": 0.035, "total": 0.2251, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.466874 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.199812 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.073999 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.064446 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.059153 } ], "others_margin": 0.169293 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.45266857743263245, "model_output": 0.4527, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2139 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0236 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0173 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0151 } ], "others": 0.0506, "total": 0.4527, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.508128 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.070456 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.064217 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.045829 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.03838 } ], "others_margin": 0.118447 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.2633975744247437, "model_output": 1.2634, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6062 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.122 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0686 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0662 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0359 } ], "others": 0.1982, "total": 1.2634, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.606205 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.122033 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.068579 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.066207 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.035865 } ], "others_margin": 0.198213 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06609976291656494, "model_output": 0.0661, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0124 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0083 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0067 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0046 } ], "others": -0.0018, "total": 0.0661, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.266231 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.225035 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.126699 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.100505 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.070526 } ], "others_margin": -0.027661 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5539156198501587, "model_output": 0.5539, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.241 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0812 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0752 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.026 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0205 } ], "others": -0.03, "total": 0.5539, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.442613 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.171887 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.136501 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.045169 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.03571 } ], "others_margin": -0.052498 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.756997108459473, "model_output": 6.757, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0649 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0088 } ], "others": 0.0333, "total": 6.757, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.064875 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.016081 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.01231 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.010763 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.008768 } ], "others_margin": 0.033315 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 17, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0224, quality 0.834)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.204, "goals": 0.2302, "goal_rate": 0.2302, "shots_on_target": 0.4628, "total_shots": 1.2917, "expected_assists": 0.0676, "key_pass": 0.5663, "rating": 6.757, "minutes": 27.13, "total_pass": 10.3147, "accurate_pass": 8.0402, "duels_won": 3.2021, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8489, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5743, "crosses_total": 0.2343, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.2899, "possession_lost": 4.4166, "dispossessed": 0.3431, "duels_lost": 3.0978, "aerial_lost": 1.7876, "total_contest": 0.6264, "won_contest": 0.3133, "ball_recovery": 0.8554, "challenges_lost": 0.144, "fouls": 0.51, "fouls_drawn": 0.8554, "assists": 0.2756, "assist_rate": 0.2756, "interceptions": 0.2756, "tackles_won": 0.4687, "tackles": 0.9136, "clearances": 0.4196, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.8298, "big_chances_missed": 0.3208, "xgot": 0.0196, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4872, "total_progression": 20.2551, "progressive_carries": 0.7845, "shots_off_target": 0.8289 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 53000000, "quality_factor": 0.834, "boost_factor": 1.0224, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 17, "history_shrink": 0.2273, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0197)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.204, "goals": 0.2286, "goal_rate": 0.2286, "shots_on_target": 0.4596, "total_shots": 1.2722, "expected_assists": 0.0676, "key_pass": 0.5663, "rating": 6.757, "minutes": 27.13, "total_pass": 10.3147, "accurate_pass": 8.0402, "duels_won": 3.2021, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8489, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5743, "crosses_total": 0.2297, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.2899, "possession_lost": 4.4166, "dispossessed": 0.3431, "duels_lost": 3.0978, "aerial_lost": 1.7876, "total_contest": 0.6264, "won_contest": 0.3133, "ball_recovery": 0.8554, "challenges_lost": 0.144, "fouls": 0.5089, "fouls_drawn": 0.8504, "assists": 0.2702, "assist_rate": 0.2702, "interceptions": 0.2731, "tackles_won": 0.4595, "tackles": 0.9136, "clearances": 0.4196, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.8298, "big_chances_missed": 0.3208, "xgot": 0.0196, "offsides": 0.0208, "ball_carries": 4.4872, "total_progression": 20.2551, "progressive_carries": 0.7845, "shots_off_target": 0.8289 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0197, "history_matches": 17, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3014, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0208 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2917, "after": 1.2722 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.4687, "after": 0.4595 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.2756, "after": 0.2702 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.8554, "after": 0.8504 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.1 to 26.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.37)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.202, "goals": 0.2263, "goal_rate": 0.2263, "shots_on_target": 0.4551, "total_shots": 1.2758, "expected_assists": 0.0669, "key_pass": 0.5607, "rating": 6.757, "minutes": 26.86, "total_pass": 10.2131, "accurate_pass": 7.961, "duels_won": 3.1705, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7716, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5194, "crosses_total": 0.2274, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1195, "possession_lost": 4.3731, "dispossessed": 0.3431, "duels_lost": 3.0673, "aerial_lost": 1.7876, "total_contest": 0.6202, "won_contest": 0.3102, "ball_recovery": 0.847, "challenges_lost": 0.144, "fouls": 0.5039, "fouls_drawn": 0.842, "assists": 0.2675, "assist_rate": 0.2675, "interceptions": 0.2704, "tackles_won": 0.455, "tackles": 0.9046, "clearances": 0.4155, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.8216, "big_chances_missed": 0.3176, "xgot": 0.0194, "offsides": 0.0208, "ball_carries": 4.443, "total_progression": 20.0555, "progressive_carries": 0.7768, "shots_off_target": 0.8207, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.366, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.86 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.86, "projection_minutes": 27.13, "minutes_scale": 0.9901, "appearance_probability": 0.366 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.202, "goals": 0.2263, "goal_rate": 0.2263, "shots_on_target": 0.4551, "total_shots": 1.2758, "expected_assists": 0.0669, "key_pass": 0.5607, "rating": 6.757, "minutes": 26.86, "total_pass": 10.2131, "accurate_pass": 7.961, "duels_won": 3.1705, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7716, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5194, "crosses_total": 0.2274, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1195, "possession_lost": 4.3731, "dispossessed": 0.3431, "duels_lost": 3.0673, "aerial_lost": 1.7876, "total_contest": 0.6202, "won_contest": 0.3102, "ball_recovery": 0.847, "challenges_lost": 0.144, "fouls": 0.5039, "fouls_drawn": 0.842, "assists": 0.2675, "assist_rate": 0.2675, "interceptions": 0.2704, "tackles_won": 0.455, "tackles": 0.9046, "clearances": 0.4155, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.8216, "big_chances_missed": 0.3176, "xgot": 0.0194, "offsides": 0.0208, "ball_carries": 4.443, "total_progression": 20.0555, "progressive_carries": 0.7768, "shots_off_target": 0.8207, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.366, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.86 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { 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"is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4962 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1444 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0487 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": -0.0238 } ], "others": -0.1643, "total": 0.5406, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.496197 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.144384 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.048707 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.039334 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": -0.023772 } ], "others_margin": -0.164373 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06072375923395157, "model_output": 0.0607, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0044 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.003 } ], "others": 0.0051, "total": 0.0607, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.398519 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.121987 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.10448 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.078776 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.051978 } ], "others_margin": 0.088287 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6644648909568787, "model_output": 0.6645, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2437 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.048 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0304 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0315 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0301 } ], "others": 0.0942, "total": 0.6645, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.448831 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.105867 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.061649 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.060064 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.054286 } ], "others_margin": 0.152751 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.705986976623535, "model_output": 6.706, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0745 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0089 } ], "others": -0.0002, "total": 6.706, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.074487 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.013774 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.011934 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.011494 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.008867 } ], "others_margin": -0.000208 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0151, quality 0.837)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0489, "goals": 0.062, "goal_rate": 0.062, "shots_on_target": 0.1766, "total_shots": 0.5488, "expected_assists": 0.0616, "key_pass": 0.6745, "rating": 6.706, "minutes": 16.26, "total_pass": 6.884, "accurate_pass": 5.5769, "duels_won": 1.0383, "total_long_balls": 0.2057, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1388, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0361, "crosses_total": 0.7712, "crosses_accurate": 0.2329, "touches": 11.8592, "possession_lost": 3.6581, "dispossessed": 0.2284, "duels_lost": 1.6822, "aerial_lost": 0.3442, "total_contest": 1.0805, "won_contest": 0.313, "ball_recovery": 0.6638, "challenges_lost": 0.2034, "fouls": 0.2478, "fouls_drawn": 0.3558, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1632, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1775, "clearances": 0.1282, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2608, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1394, "ball_carries": 4.103, "total_progression": 19.1927, "progressive_carries": 1.3871, "shots_off_target": 0.3722 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 54000000, "quality_factor": 0.837, "boost_factor": 1.0151, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0020)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0489, "goals": 0.0619, "goal_rate": 0.0619, "shots_on_target": 0.1763, "total_shots": 0.5477, "expected_assists": 0.0616, "key_pass": 0.6745, "rating": 6.706, "minutes": 16.26, "total_pass": 6.884, "accurate_pass": 5.5769, "duels_won": 1.0383, "total_long_balls": 0.2057, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1388, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0361, "crosses_total": 0.7709, "crosses_accurate": 0.2329, "touches": 11.8592, "possession_lost": 3.6581, "dispossessed": 0.2284, "duels_lost": 1.6822, "aerial_lost": 0.3442, "total_contest": 1.0805, "won_contest": 0.313, "ball_recovery": 0.6638, "challenges_lost": 0.2034, "fouls": 0.2473, "fouls_drawn": 0.3551, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1629, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1775, "clearances": 0.1282, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2608, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1391, "ball_carries": 4.103, "total_progression": 19.1927, "progressive_carries": 1.3871, "shots_off_target": 0.3722 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.002, "history_matches": 28, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1807, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.3 to 24.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.75)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0733, "goals": 0.0928, "goal_rate": 0.0928, "shots_on_target": 0.2645, "total_shots": 0.8228, "expected_assists": 0.0924, "key_pass": 1.0117, "rating": 6.706, "minutes": 24.74, "total_pass": 10.326, "accurate_pass": 8.3653, "duels_won": 1.5575, "total_long_balls": 0.3085, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2082, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5541, "crosses_total": 1.1563, "crosses_accurate": 0.3493, "touches": 17.7888, "possession_lost": 5.4871, "dispossessed": 0.2284, "duels_lost": 2.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.3442, "total_contest": 1.6208, "won_contest": 0.4695, "ball_recovery": 0.9957, "challenges_lost": 0.2034, "fouls": 0.371, "fouls_drawn": 0.5327, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2443, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2662, "clearances": 0.1923, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3912, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1391, "ball_carries": 6.1545, "total_progression": 28.789, "progressive_carries": 2.0806, "shots_off_target": 0.5583, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 24.74, "projection_minutes": 16.26, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.751 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0733, "goals": 0.0928, "goal_rate": 0.0928, "shots_on_target": 0.2645, "total_shots": 0.8228, "expected_assists": 0.0924, "key_pass": 1.0117, "rating": 6.706, "minutes": 24.74, "total_pass": 10.326, "accurate_pass": 8.3653, "duels_won": 1.5575, "total_long_balls": 0.3085, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2082, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5541, "crosses_total": 1.1563, "crosses_accurate": 0.3493, "touches": 17.7888, "possession_lost": 5.4871, "dispossessed": 0.2284, "duels_lost": 2.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.3442, "total_contest": 1.6208, "won_contest": 0.4695, "ball_recovery": 0.9957, "challenges_lost": 0.2034, "fouls": 0.371, "fouls_drawn": 0.5327, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2443, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2662, "clearances": 0.1923, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3912, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1391, "ball_carries": 6.1545, "total_progression": 28.789, "progressive_carries": 2.0806, "shots_off_target": 0.5583, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.11 (squad xG sum 1.7004, xG scale 1.2385, xA scale 1.2385, team xA 1.46 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0908, "goal_rate": 0.0928, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2645, "total_shots": 0.8228, "expected_assists": 0.1144, "key_pass": 1.0117, "rating": 6.706, "minutes": 24.74, "total_pass": 10.326, "accurate_pass": 8.3653, "duels_won": 1.5575, "total_long_balls": 0.3085, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2082, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5541, "crosses_total": 1.1563, "crosses_accurate": 0.3493, "touches": 17.7888, "possession_lost": 5.4871, "dispossessed": 0.2284, "duels_lost": 2.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.3442, "total_contest": 1.6208, "won_contest": 0.4695, "ball_recovery": 0.9957, "challenges_lost": 0.2034, "fouls": 0.371, "fouls_drawn": 0.5327, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2443, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2662, "clearances": 0.1923, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3912, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1391, "ball_carries": 6.1545, "total_progression": 28.789, "progressive_carries": 2.0806, "shots_off_target": 0.5583, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.787, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1582, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.106, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7004, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1751, "team_expected_assists": 1.4554, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6911, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2385, "xa_scale": 1.2385, "opponent_lambda": 1.167, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.751 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0733, "after": 0.0908 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0924, "after": 0.1144 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0908, "goal_rate": 0.0928, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2645, "total_shots": 0.8228, "expected_assists": 0.1144, "key_pass": 1.0117, "rating": 6.706, "minutes": 24.74, "total_pass": 10.326, "accurate_pass": 8.3653, "duels_won": 1.5575, "total_long_balls": 0.3085, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2082, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5541, "crosses_total": 1.1563, "crosses_accurate": 0.3493, "touches": 17.7888, "possession_lost": 5.4871, "dispossessed": 0.2284, "duels_lost": 2.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.3442, "total_contest": 1.6208, "won_contest": 0.4695, "ball_recovery": 0.9957, "challenges_lost": 0.2034, "fouls": 0.371, "fouls_drawn": 0.5327, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2443, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2662, "clearances": 0.1923, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3912, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1391, "ball_carries": 6.1545, "total_progression": 28.789, "progressive_carries": 2.0806, "shots_off_target": 0.5583, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.787, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1582, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1068, "fifa_rank": 691.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0908, "goal_rate": 0.0928, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2645, "total_shots": 0.8228, "expected_assists": 0.1144, "key_pass": 1.0117, "rating": 6.706, "minutes": 24.74, "total_pass": 10.326, "accurate_pass": 8.3653, "duels_won": 1.5575, "total_long_balls": 0.3085, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2082, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4424, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5541, "crosses_total": 1.1563, "crosses_accurate": 0.3493, "touches": 17.7888, "possession_lost": 5.4871, "dispossessed": 0.2284, "duels_lost": 2.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.3442, "total_contest": 1.6208, "won_contest": 0.4695, "ball_recovery": 0.9957, "challenges_lost": 0.2034, "fouls": 0.371, "fouls_drawn": 0.5327, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2443, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2662, "clearances": 0.1923, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3912, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1391, "ball_carries": 6.1545, "total_progression": 28.789, "progressive_carries": 2.0806, "shots_off_target": 0.5583, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.751, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.787, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0652, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1582, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0652, "scorer_weight": 0.079, "squad_weight_total": 2.1644, "weight_share": 0.0365, "finishing_factor": 1.1582, "appearance_weight": 0.751, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bukayo Saka", "weight": 0.5308, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5308, 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true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.488958 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.194303 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.078743 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.065581 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.047005 } ], "others_margin": -0.172656 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.10745280236005783, "model_output": 0.1075, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1295 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.046 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0066 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", 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"totalShots", "contribution": -0.1694 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0274 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0194 } ], "others": -0.0402, "total": 0.3938, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.316581 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.169379 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.027445 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.023703 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.019411 } ], "others_margin": -0.04019 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.728917598724365, "model_output": 6.7289, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0117, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2432, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assists": 0.0457, "assist_rate": 0.0457, "expected_goals": 0.0417, "goals": 0.0381, "goal_rate": 0.0381, "shots_on_target": 0.1087, "total_shots": 0.3984, "rating": 6.7289, "minutes": 21.79, "total_pass": 17.0055, "accurate_pass": 14.1613, "duels_won": 1.9502, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.633, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3186, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9451, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8428, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.3669, "possession_lost": 4.5785, "dispossessed": 0.6804, "duels_lost": 2.0398, "aerial_won": 1.0297, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "interceptions": 0.6255, "tackles_won": 0.5139, "tackles": 0.846, "clearances": 0.3787, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1975, "fouls": 0.6197, "fouls_drawn": 0.0745, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.2398, "total_progression": 10.3227, "progressive_carries": 0.0787, "shots_off_target": 0.2896 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.0117, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0014)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2432, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assists": 0.0456, "assist_rate": 0.0456, "expected_goals": 0.0417, "goals": 0.038, "goal_rate": 0.038, "shots_on_target": 0.1086, "total_shots": 0.3979, "rating": 6.7289, "minutes": 21.79, "total_pass": 17.0055, "accurate_pass": 14.1613, "duels_won": 1.9502, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.633, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3186, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9451, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8428, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.3669, "possession_lost": 4.5785, "dispossessed": 0.6804, "duels_lost": 2.0398, "aerial_won": 1.0297, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "interceptions": 0.6247, "tackles_won": 0.5143, "tackles": 0.846, "clearances": 0.3787, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1975, "fouls": 0.6189, "fouls_drawn": 0.0744, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.2398, "total_progression": 10.3227, "progressive_carries": 0.0787, "shots_off_target": 0.2896 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0014, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2421, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Arsenal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 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"big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8131, "total_progression": 8.9631, "progressive_carries": 0.0683, "shots_off_target": 0.2515, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.92, "projection_minutes": 21.79, "minutes_scale": 0.8683, "appearance_probability": 0.728 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2112, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "assists": 0.0396, "assist_rate": 0.0396, "expected_goals": 0.0362, "goals": 0.033, "goal_rate": 0.033, "shots_on_target": 0.0943, "total_shots": 0.3458, "rating": 6.7289, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 14.7657, "accurate_pass": 12.2961, "duels_won": 1.6933, "total_long_balls": 0.9646, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5496, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8098, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.1575, "possession_lost": 3.9755, "dispossessed": 0.6804, "duels_lost": 1.7711, "aerial_won": 0.8941, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "interceptions": 0.5424, "tackles_won": 0.4466, "tackles": 0.7346, "clearances": 0.3288, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1975, "fouls": 0.5374, "fouls_drawn": 0.0646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8131, "total_progression": 8.9631, "progressive_carries": 0.0683, "shots_off_target": 0.2515, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.11 (squad xG sum 1.7004, xG scale 1.2385, xA scale 1.2385, team xA 1.46 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2112, "expected_assists": 0.0271, "assist_rate": 0.0396, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0448, "goal_rate": 0.033, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0943, "total_shots": 0.3458, "rating": 6.7289, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 14.7657, "accurate_pass": 12.2961, "duels_won": 1.6933, "total_long_balls": 0.9646, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5496, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8098, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.1575, "possession_lost": 3.9755, "dispossessed": 0.6804, "duels_lost": 1.7711, "aerial_won": 0.8941, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "interceptions": 0.5424, "tackles_won": 0.4466, "tackles": 0.7346, "clearances": 0.3288, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1975, "fouls": 0.5374, "fouls_drawn": 0.0646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8131, "total_progression": 8.9631, "progressive_carries": 0.0683, "shots_off_target": 0.2515, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.787, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9629, "creation_factor": 1.2462 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.106, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7004, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1751, "team_expected_assists": 1.4554, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6911, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2385, "xa_scale": 1.2385, "opponent_lambda": 1.167, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.728 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0362, "after": 0.0448 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0219, "after": 0.0271 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2112, "expected_assists": 0.0271, "assist_rate": 0.0396, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0448, "goal_rate": 0.033, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0943, "total_shots": 0.3458, "rating": 6.7289, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 14.7657, "accurate_pass": 12.2961, "duels_won": 1.6933, "total_long_balls": 0.9646, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5496, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8098, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.1575, "possession_lost": 3.9755, "dispossessed": 0.6804, "duels_lost": 1.7711, "aerial_won": 0.8941, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "interceptions": 0.5424, "tackles_won": 0.4466, "tackles": 0.7346, "clearances": 0.3288, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1975, "fouls": 0.5374, "fouls_drawn": 0.0646, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8131, "total_progression": 8.9631, "progressive_carries": 0.0683, "shots_off_target": 0.2515, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.92, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.787, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9629, "creation_factor": 1.2462, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 54, "fifa_rank": 99.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2112, "expected_assists": 0.0271, "assist_rate": 0.0396, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0448, "goal_rate": 0.033, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0943, "total_shots": 0.3458, "rating": 6.7289, "minutes": 18.92, "total_pass": 14.7657, "accurate_pass": 12.2961, "duels_won": 1.6933, "total_long_balls": 0.9646, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5496, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1305, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4864, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6352, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8098, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.1575, "possession_lost": 3.9755, "dispossessed": 0.6804, "duels_lost": 1.7711, "aerial_won": 0.8941, "aerial_lost": 0.5423, "interceptions": 0.5424, "tackles_won": 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"margin": -0.330186 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.129972 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.073276 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.071998 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.068616 } ], "others_margin": -0.045493 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.05898946523666382, "model_output": 0.059, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0414 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0051 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0049 } ], "others": -0.0187, "total": 0.059, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.576122 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.135857 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.109668 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.072245 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.065598 } ], "others_margin": -0.277724 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.08492261171340942, "model_output": 0.0849, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0354 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0078 }, { 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"contribution": -0.1404 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0174 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.012 } ], "others": 0.0032, "total": 0.2294, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.568019 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.106319 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.078248 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.075725 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.051877 } ], "others_margin": 0.014283 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6588841676712036, "model_output": 0.6589, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4885 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0625 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0362 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0338 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0318 } ], "others": -0.0074, "total": 0.6589, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.488455 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.062477 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.036249 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.033783 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.031841 } ], "others_margin": -0.007475 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.675792217254639, "model_output": 6.6758, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0851 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0465 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0255 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0153 } ], "others": -0.0266, "total": 6.6758, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.085127 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.046497 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.025862 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.025543 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015286 } ], "others_margin": -0.026485 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0123, quality 0.791)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6808, "expected_assists": 0.0784, "assists": 0.0836, "assist_rate": 0.0836, "expected_goals": 0.0597, "goals": 0.086, "goal_rate": 0.086, "shots_on_target": 0.2322, "total_shots": 0.667, "rating": 6.6758, "minutes": 22.55, "total_pass": 6.5287, "accurate_pass": 4.5563, "duels_won": 1.1803, "total_long_balls": 0.458, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2728, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.9745, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3656, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5817, "crosses_total": 0.7826, "crosses_accurate": 0.1635, "touches": 13.0096, "possession_lost": 5.0918, "dispossessed": 0.6467, "duels_lost": 1.8779, "aerial_won": 0.0763, "aerial_lost": 0.3142, "interceptions": 0.115, "tackles_won": 0.1626, "tackles": 0.3488, "clearances": 0.297, "total_contest": 0.7916, "won_contest": 0.557, "challenges_lost": 0.0822, "fouls": 0.6141, "fouls_drawn": 0.1982, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.192, "big_chances_missed": 0.2641, "xgot": 0.0504, "ball_carries": 3.736, "total_progression": 15.3174, "progressive_carries": 0.8919, "shots_off_target": 0.4348 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 42000000, "quality_factor": 0.7909, "boost_factor": 1.0123, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.6 to 23.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7056, "expected_assists": 0.0813, "assists": 0.0866, "assist_rate": 0.0866, "expected_goals": 0.0619, "goals": 0.0891, "goal_rate": 0.0891, "shots_on_target": 0.2407, "total_shots": 0.6913, "rating": 6.6758, "minutes": 23.37, "total_pass": 6.7667, "accurate_pass": 4.7224, "duels_won": 1.2233, "total_long_balls": 0.4747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2827, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.01, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5612, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7123, "crosses_total": 0.8111, "crosses_accurate": 0.1695, "touches": 13.4838, "possession_lost": 5.2774, "dispossessed": 0.6467, "duels_lost": 1.9464, "aerial_won": 0.0791, "aerial_lost": 0.3142, "interceptions": 0.1192, "tackles_won": 0.1685, "tackles": 0.3615, "clearances": 0.3078, "total_contest": 0.8205, "won_contest": 0.5773, "challenges_lost": 0.0822, "fouls": 0.6365, "fouls_drawn": 0.2054, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.199, "big_chances_missed": 0.2737, "xgot": 0.0522, "ball_carries": 3.8722, "total_progression": 15.8757, "progressive_carries": 0.9244, "shots_off_target": 0.4506, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.37, "projection_minutes": 22.55, "minutes_scale": 1.0365, "appearance_probability": 0.562 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7056, "expected_assists": 0.0813, "assists": 0.0866, "assist_rate": 0.0866, "expected_goals": 0.0619, "goals": 0.0891, "goal_rate": 0.0891, "shots_on_target": 0.2407, "total_shots": 0.6913, "rating": 6.6758, "minutes": 23.37, "total_pass": 6.7667, "accurate_pass": 4.7224, "duels_won": 1.2233, "total_long_balls": 0.4747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2827, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.01, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5612, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7123, "crosses_total": 0.8111, "crosses_accurate": 0.1695, "touches": 13.4838, "possession_lost": 5.2774, "dispossessed": 0.6467, "duels_lost": 1.9464, "aerial_won": 0.0791, "aerial_lost": 0.3142, "interceptions": 0.1192, "tackles_won": 0.1685, "tackles": 0.3615, "clearances": 0.3078, "total_contest": 0.8205, "won_contest": 0.5773, "challenges_lost": 0.0822, "fouls": 0.6365, "fouls_drawn": 0.2054, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.199, "big_chances_missed": 0.2737, "xgot": 0.0522, "ball_carries": 3.8722, "total_progression": 15.8757, "progressive_carries": 0.9244, "shots_off_target": 0.4506, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.11 (squad xG sum 1.7004, xG scale 1.2385, xA scale 1.2385, team xA 1.46 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7056, "expected_assists": 0.1007, "assist_rate": 0.0866, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0767, "goal_rate": 0.0891, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2407, "total_shots": 0.6913, "rating": 6.6758, "minutes": 23.37, "total_pass": 6.7667, "accurate_pass": 4.7224, "duels_won": 1.2233, "total_long_balls": 0.4747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2827, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.01, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5612, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7123, "crosses_total": 0.8111, "crosses_accurate": 0.1695, "touches": 13.4838, "possession_lost": 5.2774, "dispossessed": 0.6467, "duels_lost": 1.9464, "aerial_won": 0.0791, "aerial_lost": 0.3142, "interceptions": 0.1192, "tackles_won": 0.1685, "tackles": 0.3615, "clearances": 0.3078, "total_contest": 0.8205, "won_contest": 0.5773, "challenges_lost": 0.0822, "fouls": 0.6365, "fouls_drawn": 0.2054, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.199, "big_chances_missed": 0.2737, "xgot": 0.0647, "ball_carries": 3.8722, "total_progression": 15.8757, "progressive_carries": 0.9244, "shots_off_target": 0.4506, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.787, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2431, "creation_factor": 1.0404 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.106, "squad_xg_sum": 1.7004, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1751, "team_expected_assists": 1.4554, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6911, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2385, "xa_scale": 1.2385, "opponent_lambda": 1.167, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.562 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0619, "after": 0.0767 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0813, "after": 0.1007 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7056, "expected_assists": 0.1007, "assist_rate": 0.0866, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0767, "goal_rate": 0.0891, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2407, "total_shots": 0.6913, "rating": 6.6758, "minutes": 23.37, "total_pass": 6.7667, "accurate_pass": 4.7224, "duels_won": 1.2233, "total_long_balls": 0.4747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2827, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.01, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5612, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7123, "crosses_total": 0.8111, "crosses_accurate": 0.1695, "touches": 13.4838, "possession_lost": 5.2774, "dispossessed": 0.6467, "duels_lost": 1.9464, "aerial_won": 0.0791, "aerial_lost": 0.3142, "interceptions": 0.1192, "tackles_won": 0.1685, "tackles": 0.3615, "clearances": 0.3078, "total_contest": 0.8205, "won_contest": 0.5773, "challenges_lost": 0.0822, "fouls": 0.6365, "fouls_drawn": 0.2054, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.199, "big_chances_missed": 0.2737, "xgot": 0.0647, "ball_carries": 3.8722, "total_progression": 15.8757, "progressive_carries": 0.9244, "shots_off_target": 0.4506, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.787, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2431, "creation_factor": 1.0404, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1047, "fifa_rank": 689.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7056, "expected_assists": 0.1007, "assist_rate": 0.0866, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0767, "goal_rate": 0.0891, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2407, "total_shots": 0.6913, "rating": 6.6758, "minutes": 23.37, "total_pass": 6.7667, "accurate_pass": 4.7224, "duels_won": 1.2233, "total_long_balls": 0.4747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2827, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.01, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5612, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7123, "crosses_total": 0.8111, "crosses_accurate": 0.1695, "touches": 13.4838, "possession_lost": 5.2774, "dispossessed": 0.6467, "duels_lost": 1.9464, "aerial_won": 0.0791, "aerial_lost": 0.3142, "interceptions": 0.1192, "tackles_won": 0.1685, "tackles": 0.3615, "clearances": 0.3078, "total_contest": 0.8205, "won_contest": 0.5773, "challenges_lost": 0.0822, "fouls": 0.6365, "fouls_drawn": 0.2054, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.199, "big_chances_missed": 0.2737, "xgot": 0.0647, "ball_carries": 3.8722, "total_progression": 15.8757, "progressive_carries": 0.9244, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0075, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1879, "goals": 0.2253, "goal_rate": 0.2253, "shots_on_target": 0.6441, "total_shots": 1.526, "expected_assists": 0.0808, "key_pass": 0.9915, "rating": 6.8564, "minutes": 71.57, "total_pass": 15.6578, "accurate_pass": 12.2157, "duels_won": 4.6696, "total_long_balls": 0.9531, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6231, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9821, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4526, "crosses_total": 1.8802, "crosses_accurate": 0.409, "touches": 32.4717, "possession_lost": 11.3251, "dispossessed": 1.0303, "duels_lost": 5.6227, "aerial_lost": 0.9724, "total_contest": 4.8349, "won_contest": 2.1278, "ball_recovery": 2.4241, "challenges_lost": 0.4702, "fouls": 0.4487, "fouls_drawn": 0.8886, "assists": 0.0584, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "interceptions": 0.2547, 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841 }, { "player_name": "Pedro", "ranking": 842 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2287 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1369 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0896 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.066 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0657 } ], "others": 0.0391, "total": 1.4373, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.228673 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.136893 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.089646 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.066004 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.065744 } ], "others_margin": 0.039124 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.955312252044678, "model_output": 6.9553, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0881 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.021 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0159 } ], "others": -0.0289, "total": 6.9553, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.088055 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.025463 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.021005 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.016622 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.015933 } ], "others_margin": -0.028773 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0073, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3064, "expected_assists": 0.1102, "assists": 0.0962, "assist_rate": 0.0962, "expected_goals": 0.1507, "goals": 0.1917, "goal_rate": 0.1917, "shots_on_target": 0.4584, "total_shots": 1.4478, "rating": 6.9553, "minutes": 86.89, "total_pass": 29.1409, "accurate_pass": 20.6968, "duels_won": 6.6965, "total_long_balls": 2.2271, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2953, "total_own_half_passes": 9.0753, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1891, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0656, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5077, "crosses_total": 6.6815, "crosses_accurate": 1.2524, "touches": 53.1827, "possession_lost": 17.9299, "dispossessed": 0.7028, "duels_lost": 5.5945, "aerial_won": 2.2766, "aerial_lost": 1.4066, "interceptions": 1.5039, "tackles_won": 1.2759, "tackles": 2.5942, "clearances": 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"margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.232247 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.105284 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.061568 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.046675 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.041418 } ], "others_margin": -0.062112 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.91011905670166, "model_output": 6.9101, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0302 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": 0.0158, "total": 6.9101, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030182 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.018319 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.014561 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009394 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.008306 } ], "others_margin": 0.015885 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 34, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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1.8136, "total_contest": 2.2272, "won_contest": 1.0434, "challenges_lost": 0.9169, "fouls": 0.7394, "fouls_drawn": 1.7492, "blocks": 0.0965, "big_chances_created": 0.096, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 11.0155, "total_progression": 64.4184, "progressive_carries": 1.4743, "shots_off_target": 0.4916 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0051, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8654, "expected_assists": 0.0856, "assists": 0.077, "assist_rate": 0.077, "expected_goals": 0.0373, "goals": 0.0394, "goal_rate": 0.0394, "shots_on_target": 0.1635, "total_shots": 0.6551, "rating": 6.9101, "minutes": 83.3, "total_pass": 29.5067, "accurate_pass": 21.6939, "duels_won": 5.7607, "total_long_balls": 3.5124, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2221, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4093, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.1395, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0974, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5544, "crosses_total": 3.2377, "crosses_accurate": 0.8131, "touches": 53.4914, "possession_lost": 17.6969, "dispossessed": 0.6341, "duels_lost": 4.2951, "aerial_won": 0.8304, "aerial_lost": 0.8212, "interceptions": 1.1345, "tackles_won": 1.0591, "tackles": 2.1376, "clearances": 1.8136, "total_contest": 2.2272, "won_contest": 1.0434, "challenges_lost": 0.9169, "fouls": 0.7394, "fouls_drawn": 1.7492, "blocks": 0.0965, "big_chances_created": 0.096, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 11.0155, "total_progression": 64.4184, "progressive_carries": 1.4743, "shots_off_target": 0.4916 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8654, "expected_assists": 0.0856, "assists": 0.077, "assist_rate": 0.077, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goals": 0.0339, "goal_rate": 0.0339, "shots_on_target": 0.1409, "total_shots": 0.5645, "rating": 6.9101, "minutes": 83.3, "total_pass": 29.5067, "accurate_pass": 21.6939, "duels_won": 5.7607, "total_long_balls": 3.5124, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2221, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4093, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.1395, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0974, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5544, "crosses_total": 3.2377, "crosses_accurate": 0.8131, "touches": 53.4914, "possession_lost": 17.6969, "dispossessed": 0.6341, "duels_lost": 4.2951, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.8212, "interceptions": 1.1345, "tackles_won": 1.0591, "tackles": 2.1376, "clearances": 1.8136, "total_contest": 2.2272, "won_contest": 1.0434, "challenges_lost": 0.9169, "fouls": 0.7394, "fouls_drawn": 1.7492, "blocks": 0.0965, "big_chances_created": 0.096, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "ball_carries": 11.0155, "total_progression": 64.4184, "progressive_carries": 1.4743, "shots_off_target": 0.4236, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8616, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.306, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Cristhian Mosquera", "opponent_faced": "Cristhian Mosquera", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Cristhian Mosquera", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "duel_win_rate": 0.306, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8616, "skill_edge": -0.0541, "height_edge": -0.04, "attacker_skill": 0.7176, "defender_skill": 0.8379, "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.7, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Cristhian Mosquera", "market_value": 38000000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.8379 } ], "xg_override": 0.0321 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.8304, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6551, "after": 0.5645 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4916, "after": 0.4236 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1635, "after": 0.1409 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0394, "after": 0.0339 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0373, "after": 0.0321 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.17 (squad xG sum 1.2883, xG scale 0.9058, xA scale 0.9058, team xA 0.78 = 0.67 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8654, "expected_assists": 0.0775, "assist_rate": 0.077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "goal_rate": 0.0339, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1409, "total_shots": 0.5645, "rating": 6.9101, "minutes": 83.3, "total_pass": 29.5067, "accurate_pass": 21.6939, 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"Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Cristhian Mosquera", "opponent_faced": "Cristhian Mosquera", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0219, "creation_factor": 0.9366 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.167, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2883, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8594, "team_expected_assists": 0.7785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6671, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9058, "xa_scale": 0.9058, "opponent_lambda": 2.106, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0856, "after": 0.0775 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8654, "expected_assists": 0.0775, "assist_rate": 0.077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "goal_rate": 0.0339, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1409, "total_shots": 0.5645, "rating": 6.9101, "minutes": 83.3, "total_pass": 29.5067, "accurate_pass": 21.6939, "duels_won": 5.7607, "total_long_balls": 3.5124, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2221, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4093, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.1395, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0974, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5544, "crosses_total": 3.2377, "crosses_accurate": 0.8131, "touches": 53.4914, "possession_lost": 17.6969, "dispossessed": 0.6341, "duels_lost": 4.2951, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.8212, "interceptions": 1.1345, "tackles_won": 1.0591, "tackles": 2.1376, "clearances": 1.8136, "total_contest": 2.2272, "won_contest": 1.0434, "challenges_lost": 0.9169, "fouls": 0.7394, "fouls_drawn": 1.7492, "blocks": 0.0965, "big_chances_created": 0.096, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 11.0155, "total_progression": 64.4184, "progressive_carries": 1.4743, "shots_off_target": 0.4236, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8616, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.306, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Cristhian Mosquera", "opponent_faced": "Cristhian Mosquera", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0219, "creation_factor": 0.9366, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2292, "fifa_rank": 1099.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8654, "expected_assists": 0.0775, "assist_rate": 0.077, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "goal_rate": 0.0339, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1409, "total_shots": 0.5645, "rating": 6.9101, "minutes": 83.3, "total_pass": 29.5067, "accurate_pass": 21.6939, "duels_won": 5.7607, "total_long_balls": 3.5124, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2221, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4093, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.1395, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0974, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5544, "crosses_total": 3.2377, "crosses_accurate": 0.8131, "touches": 53.4914, "possession_lost": 17.6969, "dispossessed": 0.6341, "duels_lost": 4.2951, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.8212, "interceptions": 1.1345, "tackles_won": 1.0591, "tackles": 2.1376, "clearances": 1.8136, "total_contest": 2.2272, "won_contest": 1.0434, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0026, quality 0.568)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8371, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "assists": 0.0702, "assist_rate": 0.0702, "expected_goals": 0.072, "goals": 0.0671, "goal_rate": 0.0671, "shots_on_target": 0.2265, "total_shots": 0.9411, "rating": 6.8558, "minutes": 75.3, "total_pass": 36.0995, "accurate_pass": 31.9264, "duels_won": 2.9591, "total_long_balls": 1.8377, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0624, "total_own_half_passes": 19.082, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6849, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0175, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2415, "crosses_total": 1.6629, "crosses_accurate": 0.5424, "touches": 48.1856, "possession_lost": 7.0353, "dispossessed": 0.3206, "duels_lost": 2.4933, "aerial_won": 0.3848, "aerial_lost": 0.4676, "interceptions": 1.0121, "tackles_won": 0.9164, "tackles": 1.537, "clearances": 1.0986, "total_contest": 0.8233, "won_contest": 0.4572, "challenges_lost": 0.5628, "fouls": 0.9236, "fouls_drawn": 0.5801, "blocks": 0.0372, "big_chances_created": 0.1476, "big_chances_missed": 0.163, "xgot": 0.0154, "ball_carries": 10.8679, "total_progression": 23.2819, "progressive_carries": 0.3516, "shots_off_target": 0.7146 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14000000, "quality_factor": 0.5682, "boost_factor": 1.0026, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0029)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8371, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "assists": 0.07, "assist_rate": 0.07, "expected_goals": 0.072, "goals": 0.0669, "goal_rate": 0.0669, "shots_on_target": 0.2258, "total_shots": 0.9383, "rating": 6.8558, "minutes": 75.3, "total_pass": 36.0995, "accurate_pass": 31.9264, "duels_won": 2.9591, "total_long_balls": 1.8377, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0624, 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"team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.17 (squad xG sum 1.2883, xG scale 0.9058, xA scale 0.9058, team xA 0.78 = 0.67 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8371, "expected_assists": 0.059, "assist_rate": 0.07, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0515, "goal_rate": 0.0528, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1782, "total_shots": 0.7424, "rating": 6.8558, "minutes": 75.3, "total_pass": 36.0995, "accurate_pass": 31.9264, "duels_won": 2.9591, "total_long_balls": 1.8377, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0624, "total_own_half_passes": 19.082, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6849, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0175, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2415, "crosses_total": 1.658, "crosses_accurate": 0.5424, "touches": 48.1856, "possession_lost": 7.0353, "dispossessed": 0.3206, "duels_lost": 2.4933, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.4676, "interceptions": 1.0091, "tackles_won": 0.9137, "tackles": 1.537, "clearances": 1.0986, 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0.307, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Bruno Guimarães", "opponent_faced": "Bruno Guimarães", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0502, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9625, "creation_factor": 1.0426, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0502, "scorer_weight": 0.0496, "squad_weight_total": 1.2177, "weight_share": 0.0407, "finishing_factor": 0.9625, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3393, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3393, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.169 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8371, "expected_assists": 0.059, "assist_rate": 0.07, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0515, "goal_rate": 0.0528, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1782, "total_shots": 0.7424, "rating": 6.8558, "minutes": 75.3, "total_pass": 36.0995, "accurate_pass": 31.9264, "duels_won": 2.9591, "total_long_balls": 1.8377, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0624, "total_own_half_passes": 19.082, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6849, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0175, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2415, "crosses_total": 1.658, "crosses_accurate": 0.5424, "touches": 48.1856, "possession_lost": 7.0353, "dispossessed": 0.3206, "duels_lost": 2.4933, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.4676, "interceptions": 1.0091, "tackles_won": 0.9137, "tackles": 1.537, "clearances": 1.0986, "total_contest": 0.8233, "won_contest": 0.4572, "challenges_lost": 0.5628, "fouls": 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"is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0462 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0516 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0209 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0098 } ], "others": 0.0053, "total": 0.4039, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.133372 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.1304 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.050766 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.03052 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.024825 } ], "others_margin": 0.013017 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.143499493598938, "model_output": 1.1435, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1467 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0437 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0423 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0224 } ], "others": 0.0071, "total": 1.1435, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.146703 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.043662 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.042303 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.023026 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.022437 } ], "others_margin": 0.007102 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.753481388092041, "model_output": 6.7535, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0322 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0243 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0266, "total": 6.7535, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.032239 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.02588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.024267 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.021485 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.013466 } ], "others_margin": -0.026588 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 37, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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13.4916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5731, "crosses_total": 1.5606, "crosses_accurate": 0.4125, "touches": 40.3629, "possession_lost": 12.0173, "dispossessed": 0.8708, "duels_lost": 4.5944, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.7572, "interceptions": 0.6071, "tackles_won": 1.0695, "tackles": 1.4462, "clearances": 1.7705, "total_contest": 1.5035, "won_contest": 0.6031, "challenges_lost": 0.8201, "fouls": 1.2453, "fouls_drawn": 1.1838, "blocks": 0.1569, "big_chances_created": 0.1995, "big_chances_missed": 0.0097, "xgot": 0.1892, "ball_carries": 9.2315, "total_progression": 38.6014, "progressive_carries": 1.1161, "shots_off_target": 0.6213, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8377, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.29, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jurriën Timber", "opponent_faced": "Jurriën Timber", 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2305 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1812 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0724 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0695 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.054 } ], "others": -0.1173, "total": 1.6195, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.154268 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.106477 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.041194 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.039606 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.03064 } ], "others_margin": -0.069939 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8175864219665527, "model_output": 0.8176, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2146 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0671 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0251 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0211 } ], "others": -0.0113, "total": 0.8176, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.214629 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.067058 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.029928 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.025067 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.02114 } ], "others_margin": -0.011367 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.883410453796387, "model_output": 6.8834, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0425 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0279 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0201 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0194, "total": 6.8834, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.042474 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.027882 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.020098 }, { "name": "touches", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0017, quality 0.550)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1222, "tackles": 2.4069, "tackles_won": 1.3464, "clearances": 3.9802, "aerial_won": 1.6223, "total_shots": 0.819, "rating": 6.8834, "minutes": 89.39, "total_pass": 32.4839, "accurate_pass": 24.1045, "duels_won": 6.273, "total_long_balls": 4.3057, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3609, "total_own_half_passes": 17.0668, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6415, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4172, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.463, "crosses_total": 1.8219, "crosses_accurate": 0.3422, "touches": 54.531, "possession_lost": 13.3454, "dispossessed": 0.3541, "duels_lost": 2.989, "aerial_lost": 1.1286, "total_contest": 0.2941, "won_contest": 0.0943, "ball_recovery": 2.7994, "challenges_lost": 0.7325, "fouls": 0.5739, "fouls_drawn": 1.3116, "blocks": 0.3606, "goals": 0.0447, 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90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 7.1908, "aerialWon": 3.5026, "totalClearance_p90": 7.1908, "totalTackle": 1.0248, "totalPass": 54.607 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.17166006565094, "model_output": 1.1717, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1013 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0495 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0392 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0385 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0277 } ], "others": 0.0582, 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"defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0486 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0425 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.038 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0353 } ], "others": -0.141, "total": 0.7131, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.075426 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.05137 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.044761 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.041858 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.040552 } ], "others_margin": -0.180396 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 6.847822189331055, "model_output": 6.8478, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.8225 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.56 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.3765 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.3434 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.3506 } ], "others": 0.9434, "total": 6.8478, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.213735 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123136 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.074996 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.063819 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.061216 } ], "others_margin": 0.148244 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 3.474534511566162, "model_output": 3.4745, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.6882 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2508 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2722 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.2295 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2399 } ], "others": 0.4119, "total": 3.4745, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.404114 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.114366 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.110888 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.084814 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.081575 } ], "others_margin": 0.126151 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0010491609573364, "model_output": 1.001, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2521 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0753 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.064 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0396 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0287 } ], "others": 0.1276, "total": 1.001, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.252063 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.075315 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.064044 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.039567 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.028685 } ], "others_margin": 0.127613 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.008976459503174, "model_output": 7.009, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0411 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0342 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0303 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0265 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0244 } ], "others": 0.0674, "total": 7.009, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.041063 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.034161 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.030341 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.02648 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.024438 } ], "others_margin": 0.067361 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0397, quality 0.770)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2182, "tackles": 1.3413, "tackles_won": 0.7414, "clearances": 7.1197, "aerial_won": 3.6125, "total_shots": 1.0408, "rating": 7.009, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 56.7749, "accurate_pass": 48.3929, "duels_won": 6.2775, "total_long_balls": 6.5927, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3333, "total_own_half_passes": 39.6637, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.0702, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1111, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3226, "crosses_total": 0.1722, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.142, "possession_lost": 9.0751, "dispossessed": 0.1722, "duels_lost": 4.7904, "aerial_lost": 3.8168, "total_contest": 0.5165, "won_contest": 0.5165, "ball_recovery": 3.6611, "challenges_lost": 0.3747, "fouls": 0.4267, "fouls_drawn": 1.0538, "blocks": 0.8912, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2383, "assist_rate": 0.2383, "expected_goals": 0.125, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "shots_on_target": 0.1464, "big_chances_created": 0.2773, "xgot": 0.0631, "ball_carries": 17.2797, "total_progression": 27.2327, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2383, "shots_off_target": 0.8943 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 38000000, "quality_factor": 0.7699, "boost_factor": 1.0397, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0433)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2521, "tackles": 1.3413, "tackles_won": 0.7309, "clearances": 7.1197, "aerial_won": 3.6125, "total_shots": 1.0174, "rating": 7.009, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 56.7749, "accurate_pass": 48.3929, "duels_won": 6.2775, "total_long_balls": 6.5927, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3333, "total_own_half_passes": 39.6637, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.0702, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1111, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3226, "crosses_total": 0.1864, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.142, "possession_lost": 9.0751, "dispossessed": 0.1722, "duels_lost": 4.7904, "aerial_lost": 3.8168, "total_contest": 0.5165, "won_contest": 0.5165, "ball_recovery": 3.6611, "challenges_lost": 0.3747, "fouls": 0.4299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0298, "blocks": 0.8912, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.228, "assist_rate": 0.228, "expected_goals": 0.125, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "shots_on_target": 0.1617, "big_chances_created": 0.2773, "xgot": 0.0631, "ball_carries": 17.2797, "total_progression": 27.2327, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2383, "shots_off_target": 0.8943 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0433, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.2182, "after": 1.2521 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.0538, "after": 1.0298 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0408, "after": 1.0174 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1464, "after": 0.1617 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.1722, "after": 0.1864 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7414, "after": 0.7309 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.2383, "after": 0.228 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2521, "tackles": 1.3413, "tackles_won": 0.7309, "clearances": 7.1197, "aerial_won": 3.6125, "total_shots": 1.056, "rating": 7.009, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 56.7749, "accurate_pass": 48.3929, "duels_won": 6.2775, "total_long_balls": 6.5927, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3333, "total_own_half_passes": 39.6637, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.0702, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1111, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3226, "crosses_total": 0.1864, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.142, "possession_lost": 9.0751, "dispossessed": 0.1722, "duels_lost": 4.7904, "aerial_lost": 3.8168, "total_contest": 0.5165, "won_contest": 0.5165, "ball_recovery": 3.6611, "challenges_lost": 0.3747, "fouls": 0.4299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0298, "blocks": 0.8912, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.228, "assist_rate": 0.228, "expected_goals": 0.125, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "shots_on_target": 0.1617, "big_chances_created": 0.2773, "xgot": 0.0631, "ball_carries": 17.2797, "total_progression": 27.2327, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2383, "shots_off_target": 0.8943 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2521, "tackles": 1.3413, "tackles_won": 0.7309, "clearances": 7.1197, "aerial_won": 3.6125, "total_shots": 1.056, "rating": 7.009, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 56.7749, "accurate_pass": 48.3929, "duels_won": 6.2775, "total_long_balls": 6.5927, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3333, "total_own_half_passes": 39.6637, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.0702, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1111, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3226, "crosses_total": 0.1864, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.142, "possession_lost": 9.0751, "dispossessed": 0.1722, "duels_lost": 4.7904, "aerial_lost": 3.8168, "total_contest": 0.5165, "won_contest": 0.5165, "ball_recovery": 3.6611, "challenges_lost": 0.3747, "fouls": 0.4299, "fouls_drawn": 1.0298, "blocks": 0.8912, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.228, "assist_rate": 0.228, "expected_goals": 0.125, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "shots_on_target": 0.1617, "big_chances_created": 0.2773, "xgot": 0.0631, "ball_carries": 17.2797, "total_progression": 27.2327, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2383, "shots_off_target": 0.8943, "opponent_faced": "Bukayo Saka", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Bukayo Saka", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.17 (squad xG sum 1.2883, xG scale 0.9058, xA scale 0.9058, team xA 0.78 = 0.67 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2521, "tackles": 1.3413, "tackles_won": 0.7309, "clearances": 7.1197, "aerial_won": 3.6125, "total_shots": 1.056, "rating": 7.009, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 56.7749, "accurate_pass": 48.3929, "duels_won": 6.2775, "total_long_balls": 6.5927, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3333, "total_own_half_passes": 39.6637, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.0702, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1111, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3226, "crosses_total": 0.1864, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.142, "possession_lost": 9.0751, "dispossessed": 0.1722, "duels_lost": 4.7904, "aerial_lost": 3.8168, 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"margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.104366 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.078172 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.064799 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.043406 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.043145 } ], "others_margin": 0.024282 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6392198204994202, "model_output": 0.6392, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0655 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.045 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0357 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0211 } ], "others": -0.024, "total": 0.6392, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.065455 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.04498 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.035739 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.024845 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.021106 } ], "others_margin": -0.024037 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.78323221206665, "model_output": 6.7832, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0095 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.015, "total": 6.7832, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.013571 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.010356 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.009502 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008792 } ], "others_margin": -0.014908 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.490)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0118, "tackles": 1.2106, "tackles_won": 0.763, "clearances": 4.5923, "aerial_won": 1.8093, "total_shots": 0.6376, "rating": 6.7832, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 50.697, "accurate_pass": 45.9984, "duels_won": 2.2257, "total_long_balls": 3.1583, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4904, "total_own_half_passes": 31.9869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0476, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7101, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9508, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.1723, "possession_lost": 5.9181, "dispossessed": 0.3296, "duels_lost": 3.7835, "aerial_lost": 2.2257, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3765, "challenges_lost": 0.948, "fouls": 0.2802, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.3359, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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18.7101, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9508, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.1723, "possession_lost": 5.9181, "dispossessed": 0.3296, "duels_lost": 3.7835, "aerial_lost": 2.2257, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3765, "challenges_lost": 0.948, "fouls": 0.2762, "fouls_drawn": 0.0481, "blocks": 1.3359, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0426, "expected_assists": 0.165, "shots_on_target": 0.3821, "big_chances_created": 0.5603, "xgot": 0.2135, "ball_carries": 22.5014, "total_progression": 109.0821, "progressive_carries": 1.9387, "key_pass": 0.5603, "shots_off_target": 0.2499 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0144, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0481 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", 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"accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0476, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7101, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9508, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.1723, "possession_lost": 5.9181, "dispossessed": 0.3296, "duels_lost": 3.7835, "aerial_lost": 2.2257, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3765, "challenges_lost": 0.948, "fouls": 0.2762, "fouls_drawn": 0.0481, "blocks": 1.3359, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0426, "expected_assists": 0.165, "shots_on_target": 0.3821, "big_chances_created": 0.5603, "xgot": 0.2135, "ball_carries": 22.5014, "total_progression": 109.0821, "progressive_carries": 1.9387, "key_pass": 0.5603, "shots_off_target": 0.2499, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.677, "opponent_faced": "Bukayo Saka", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Bukayo Saka", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.17 (squad xG sum 1.2883, xG scale 0.9058, xA scale 0.9058, team xA 0.78 = 0.67 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0213, "tackles": 1.2106, "tackles_won": 0.752, "clearances": 4.5923, "aerial_won": 1.8093, "total_shots": 0.632, "rating": 6.7832, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 50.697, "accurate_pass": 45.9984, "duels_won": 2.2257, "total_long_balls": 3.1583, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4904, "total_own_half_passes": 31.9869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0476, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7101, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9508, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.1723, "possession_lost": 5.9181, "dispossessed": 0.3296, "duels_lost": 3.7835, "aerial_lost": 2.2257, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3765, "challenges_lost": 0.948, "fouls": 0.2762, "fouls_drawn": 0.0481, "blocks": 1.3359, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0386, "expected_assists": 0.1495, "shots_on_target": 0.3821, "big_chances_created": 0.5603, "xgot": 0.1934, "ball_carries": 22.5014, "total_progression": 109.0821, "progressive_carries": 1.9387, "key_pass": 0.5603, "shots_off_target": 0.2499, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.677, "opponent_faced": "Bukayo Saka", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.167, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2883, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8594, "team_expected_assists": 0.7785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6671, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9058, "xa_scale": 0.9058, "opponent_lambda": 2.106, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.165, "after": 0.1495 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0213, "tackles": 1.2106, "tackles_won": 0.752, "clearances": 4.5923, "aerial_won": 1.8093, "total_shots": 0.632, "rating": 6.7832, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 50.697, "accurate_pass": 45.9984, "duels_won": 2.2257, "total_long_balls": 3.1583, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4904, "total_own_half_passes": 31.9869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0476, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7101, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9508, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.1723, "possession_lost": 5.9181, "dispossessed": 0.3296, "duels_lost": 3.7835, "aerial_lost": 2.2257, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3765, "challenges_lost": 0.948, "fouls": 0.2762, "fouls_drawn": 0.0481, "blocks": 1.3359, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0386, "expected_assists": 0.1495, "shots_on_target": 0.3821, "big_chances_created": 0.5603, "xgot": 0.1934, "ball_carries": 22.5014, "total_progression": 109.0821, "progressive_carries": 1.9387, "key_pass": 0.5603, "shots_off_target": 0.2499, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.677, "opponent_faced": "Bukayo Saka", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1584, "fifa_rank": 1160.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0213, "tackles": 1.2106, 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"season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3357, "combined_rank_score": 1306.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 835.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5875, "sofascore_appearances": 16.0, "fifa_rank": 1777.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9545, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lucas Perri", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Javi Rodríguez", "ranking": 3352 }, { "player_name": "Kristian Thorstvedt", "ranking": 3353 }, { "player_name": "Danilo Santos", "ranking": 3354 }, { "player_name": "Soufiane Rahimi", "ranking": 3355 }, { "player_name": "Héctor Bellerín", "ranking": 3356 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Billy Gilmour", "ranking": 3358 }, { "player_name": "Bernardo", "ranking": 3359 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Torró", "ranking": 3360 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Walker", "ranking": 3361 }, { "player_name": "Nikola Moro", "ranking": 3362 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 16, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 16, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.691536137511768, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.12234255170508039, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0006, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (16 historical appearances) to 4.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.12); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.7773, "goals_prevented": -0.034, "rating": 6.9545, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 34.2416, "accurate_pass": 18.3531, "total_long_balls": 21.6926, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8312, "touches": 43.6944, "clearances": 1.1387, "ball_recovery": 6.2017, "high_claims": 1.1859, "punches": 1.1134, "aerial_won": 0.3126, "sweeper_actions": 0.4271, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4271, "saves_inside_box": 1.8263, "possession_lost": 17.0485, "duels_won": 0.5674, "duels_lost": 0.1807, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0846, "fouls_drawn": 0.4168, "total_own_half_passes": 15.5814, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5521 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-09T10:02:40.828652+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 199, "rows": 6796 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-01-07", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.162, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-04", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1377, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-01", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1171, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-28", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0995, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0846, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-14", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0719, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-06", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0611, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-03", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0519, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2025-11-29", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0442, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2025-11-23", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0375, "rating": 5.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 16.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.2049, "distribution_accuracy": 0.7975, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.2049, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.0484, "save_contribution": 2.2494, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.4271 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.777320623397827, "model_output": 2.7773, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0362 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9286, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1712 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0492 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0358, "total": 2.7773, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.074537, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.060234 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017679 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.005213 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.003778 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.003727 } ], "others_margin": -0.012788 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.033985767513513565, "model_output": -0.034, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0385 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0166, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0311 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.026 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0175 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.0157 } ], "others": 0.0242, "total": -0.034, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.031071 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.026006 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.017693 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017458 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": 0.01575 } ], "others_margin": 0.024189 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.954519271850586, "model_output": 6.9545, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0171 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0445, "total": 6.9545, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.009122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.022427 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.021945 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.017099 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.015824 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.011886 } ], "others_margin": -0.044474 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 16, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0006, quality 0.513)", "stats": { "saves": 2.779, "goals_prevented": -0.034, "rating": 6.9545, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 34.2621, "accurate_pass": 18.3641, "total_long_balls": 21.7056, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8347, "touches": 43.7206, "clearances": 1.1394, "ball_recovery": 6.2054, "high_claims": 1.1866, "punches": 1.1141, "aerial_won": 0.3128, "sweeper_actions": 0.4274, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4274, "saves_inside_box": 1.8274, "possession_lost": 17.0587, "duels_won": 0.5677, "duels_lost": 0.1808, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0847, "fouls_drawn": 0.4171, "total_own_half_passes": 15.5907, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5602 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9200000, "quality_factor": 0.513, "boost_factor": 1.0006, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 16, "history_shrink": 0.2381, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.12)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4575, "goals_prevented": -0.0056, "rating": 6.9545, "minutes": 4.69, "total_pass": 5.6401, "accurate_pass": 3.023, "total_long_balls": 3.5731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9605, "touches": 7.1971, "clearances": 0.1876, "ball_recovery": 1.0215, "high_claims": 0.1953, "punches": 0.1834, "aerial_won": 0.0515, "sweeper_actions": 0.0704, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0704, "saves_inside_box": 0.3008, "possession_lost": 2.8081, "duels_won": 0.0935, "duels_lost": 0.0298, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0139, "fouls_drawn": 0.0687, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2322, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.122, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.69 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.69, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1646, "appearance_probability": 0.122 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4575, "goals_prevented": -0.0056, "rating": 6.9545, "minutes": 4.69, "total_pass": 5.6401, "accurate_pass": 3.023, "total_long_balls": 3.5731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9605, "touches": 7.1971, "clearances": 0.1876, "ball_recovery": 1.0215, "high_claims": 0.1953, "punches": 0.1834, "aerial_won": 0.0515, "sweeper_actions": 0.0704, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0704, "saves_inside_box": 0.3008, "possession_lost": 2.8081, "duels_won": 0.0935, "duels_lost": 0.0298, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0139, "fouls_drawn": 0.0687, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2322, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.122, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.69 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4575, "goals_prevented": -0.0056, "rating": 6.9545, "minutes": 4.69, "total_pass": 5.6401, "accurate_pass": 3.023, "total_long_balls": 3.5731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9605, "touches": 7.1971, "clearances": 0.1876, "ball_recovery": 1.0215, "high_claims": 0.1953, "punches": 0.1834, "aerial_won": 0.0515, "sweeper_actions": 0.0704, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0704, "saves_inside_box": 0.3008, "possession_lost": 2.8081, "duels_won": 0.0935, "duels_lost": 0.0298, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0139, "fouls_drawn": 0.0687, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2322, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.122, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.69, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.122, "projected_substitutes": 4, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4575, "goals_prevented": -0.0056, "rating": 6.9545, "minutes": 4.69, "total_pass": 5.6401, "accurate_pass": 3.023, "total_long_balls": 3.5731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9605, "touches": 7.1971, "clearances": 0.1876, "ball_recovery": 1.0215, "high_claims": 0.1953, "punches": 0.1834, "aerial_won": 0.0515, "sweeper_actions": 0.0704, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0704, "saves_inside_box": 0.3008, "possession_lost": 2.8081, "duels_won": 0.0935, "duels_lost": 0.0298, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0139, "fouls_drawn": 0.0687, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2322, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.122, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.69, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3357, "fifa_rank": 1777.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] }, "Joe Rodon": { "player_id": 828640, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 193, "market_value": 18800000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 5.1068, "dispossessed": 0.2349, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0019, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0584, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.29, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier 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"importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2507 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0092 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0072 } ], "others": -0.0389, "total": 0.1974, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.25068 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.009395 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.009224 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.008931 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.007172 } ], "others_margin": -0.038977 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.71710205078125, "model_output": 6.7171, "scale": "0-10", 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"source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.619)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3137, "tackles": 0.5659, "tackles_won": 0.3679, "clearances": 1.5246, "aerial_won": 0.8195, "total_shots": 0.2076, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 21.39, "total_pass": 26.883, "accurate_pass": 21.8343, "duels_won": 3.2236, "total_long_balls": 2.13, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6351, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0775, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2505, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5837, "crosses_total": 0.3384, "crosses_accurate": 0.2833, "touches": 40.8062, "possession_lost": 7.6432, "dispossessed": 0.2349, "duels_lost": 3.23, "aerial_lost": 1.582, "total_contest": 0.2216, "won_contest": 0.0005, "ball_recovery": 2.0007, "challenges_lost": 0.4028, "fouls": 0.8705, "fouls_drawn": 0.5905, "blocks": 0.6157, "goals": 0.0028, "goal_rate": 0.0028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0262, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "shots_on_target": 0.2076, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "xgot": 0.0874, "ball_carries": 6.0677, "total_progression": 18.6127, "progressive_carries": 0.3887, "key_pass": 0.519, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18800000, "quality_factor": 0.6191, "boost_factor": 1.0041, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3139, "tackles": 0.5659, "tackles_won": 0.3652, "clearances": 1.5246, "aerial_won": 0.8195, "total_shots": 0.2074, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 21.39, "total_pass": 26.883, "accurate_pass": 21.8343, "duels_won": 3.2236, "total_long_balls": 2.13, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6351, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0775, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2505, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5837, "crosses_total": 0.3372, "crosses_accurate": 0.2833, "touches": 40.8062, "possession_lost": 7.6432, "dispossessed": 0.2349, "duels_lost": 3.23, "aerial_lost": 1.582, "total_contest": 0.2216, "won_contest": 0.0005, "ball_recovery": 2.0007, "challenges_lost": 0.4028, "fouls": 0.8679, "fouls_drawn": 0.5887, "blocks": 0.6157, "goals": 0.0028, "goal_rate": 0.0028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0262, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "shots_on_target": 0.2061, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "xgot": 0.0874, "ball_carries": 6.0677, "total_progression": 18.6127, "progressive_carries": 0.3887, "key_pass": 0.519, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2377, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench 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0.1377, "big_chances_created": 0.0023, "xgot": 0.0584, "ball_carries": 4.0541, "total_progression": 12.436, "progressive_carries": 0.2597, "key_pass": 0.3468, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.29, "projection_minutes": 21.39, "minutes_scale": 0.6681, "appearance_probability": 0.232 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2097, "tackles": 0.3781, "tackles_won": 0.244, "clearances": 1.0187, "aerial_won": 0.5475, "total_shots": 0.1386, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 14.29, "total_pass": 17.9618, "accurate_pass": 14.5885, "duels_won": 2.1538, "total_long_balls": 1.4232, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4243, "total_own_half_passes": 10.074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8533, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8879, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7352, "crosses_total": 0.2253, "crosses_accurate": 0.1893, "touches": 27.2645, "possession_lost": 5.1068, "dispossessed": 0.2349, "duels_lost": 2.1581, "aerial_lost": 1.582, "total_contest": 0.1481, "won_contest": 0.0003, "ball_recovery": 1.3368, "challenges_lost": 0.4028, "fouls": 0.5799, "fouls_drawn": 0.3933, "blocks": 0.4114, "goals": 0.0019, "goal_rate": 0.0019, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "shots_on_target": 0.1377, "big_chances_created": 0.0023, "xgot": 0.0584, "ball_carries": 4.0541, "total_progression": 12.436, "progressive_carries": 0.2597, "key_pass": 0.3468, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2097, "tackles": 0.3781, "tackles_won": 0.244, "clearances": 1.0187, "aerial_won": 0.5475, "total_shots": 0.1386, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 14.29, "total_pass": 17.9618, "accurate_pass": 14.5885, "duels_won": 2.1538, "total_long_balls": 1.4232, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4243, "total_own_half_passes": 10.074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8533, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8879, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7352, "crosses_total": 0.2253, "crosses_accurate": 0.1893, "touches": 27.2645, "possession_lost": 5.1068, "dispossessed": 0.2349, "duels_lost": 2.1581, "aerial_lost": 1.582, "total_contest": 0.1481, "won_contest": 0.0003, "ball_recovery": 1.3368, "challenges_lost": 0.4028, "fouls": 0.5799, "fouls_drawn": 0.3933, "blocks": 0.4114, "goal_rate": 0.0019, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "shots_on_target": 0.1377, "big_chances_created": 0.0023, "xgot": 0.0584, "ball_carries": 4.0541, "total_progression": 12.436, "progressive_carries": 0.2597, "key_pass": 0.3468, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.29, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.232, "projected_substitutes": 4, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2097, "tackles": 0.3781, "tackles_won": 0.244, "clearances": 1.0187, "aerial_won": 0.5475, "total_shots": 0.1386, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 14.29, "total_pass": 17.9618, "accurate_pass": 14.5885, "duels_won": 2.1538, "total_long_balls": 1.4232, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4243, 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"projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1976, "fifa_rank": 1413.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "Jaka Bijol": { "player_id": 886930, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 192, "market_value": 18500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8063, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, 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"home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 11, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025036, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0564, "expected_assists": 0.005, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 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"season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2459, "combined_rank_score": 887.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 352.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9833, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 1423.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8063, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jaka Bijol", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Charles Pickel", "ranking": 2454 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Otamendi", "ranking": 2455 }, { "player_name": "Walter Scott", "ranking": 2456 }, { "player_name": "Javier Rojas", "ranking": 2457 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Gómez", "ranking": 2458 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Emiliano Ramos", "ranking": 2460 }, { "player_name": "Camilo Moya", "ranking": 2461 }, { "player_name": "Ji Dong-Won", "ranking": 2462 }, { "player_name": "Jefferson Savarino", "ranking": 2463 }, { "player_name": "Mukhriddin Zoirov", "ranking": 2464 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.765, "history_matches": 28, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", 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-0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.592565 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.057027 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.043508 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.038145 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.034543 } ], "others_margin": 0.005413 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.1734821796417236, "model_output": 2.1735, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1552 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3145 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1024 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0981 }, { "name": 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"contribution": 0.0887 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0835 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0615 } ], "others": 0.1498, "total": 1.15, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.886657 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.29719 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.109487 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.093187 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.063437 } ], "others_margin": 0.139589 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4584, "model_output": 0.2419, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2545 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0297 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0195, "total": 0.2419, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.254458 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.029734 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.015954 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.009049 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.008102 } ], "others_margin": -0.019467 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.806252479553223, "model_output": 6.8063, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0262 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0047, "total": 6.8063, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.026156 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.020371 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.011015 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.010895 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.009783 } ], "others_margin": -0.004789 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0050, quality 0.616)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4044, "tackles": 0.576, "tackles_won": 0.4014, "clearances": 2.1843, "aerial_won": 1.1558, "total_shots": 0.4607, "rating": 6.8063, "minutes": 25.08, "total_pass": 10.1022, "accurate_pass": 8.5409, "duels_won": 2.0446, "total_long_balls": 1.7666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5133, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1712, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.563, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9779, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.7684, "possession_lost": 1.7027, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7872, "aerial_lost": 1.3128, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1697, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4743, "fouls_drawn": 0.1664, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0796, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "shots_on_target": 0.4607, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0721, "ball_carries": 3.5204, "total_progression": 4.6428, "progressive_carries": 0.268, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18500000, "quality_factor": 0.6161, "boost_factor": 1.005, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0098)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4059, "tackles": 0.576, "tackles_won": 0.3993, "clearances": 2.1843, "aerial_won": 1.1558, "total_shots": 0.4598, "rating": 6.8063, "minutes": 25.08, "total_pass": 10.1022, "accurate_pass": 8.5409, "duels_won": 2.0446, "total_long_balls": 1.7666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5133, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1712, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.563, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9779, "crosses_total": 0.0018, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.7684, "possession_lost": 1.7027, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7872, "aerial_lost": 1.3128, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1697, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4715, "fouls_drawn": 0.1666, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0796, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "shots_on_target": 0.4562, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0721, "ball_carries": 3.5204, "total_progression": 4.6428, "progressive_carries": 0.268, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0098, "history_matches": 28, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2787, "prior_reliability": 0.1, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.1 to 14.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 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"margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.07022 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.04841 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025903 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.015565 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014502 } ], "others_margin": -0.015379 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0034, quality 0.573)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3876, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "assists": 0.0383, "assist_rate": 0.0383, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "goals": 0.0502, "goal_rate": 0.0502, "shots_on_target": 0.1826, "total_shots": 0.3758, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 13.4, "total_pass": 4.6585, "accurate_pass": 3.6445, "duels_won": 0.6388, "total_long_balls": 0.6318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2473, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5528, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5328, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1118, "crosses_total": 0.5711, "crosses_accurate": 0.357, "touches": 7.2572, "possession_lost": 1.4618, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.0673, "aerial_won": 0.1924, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.1998, "tackles_won": 0.1192, "tackles": 0.1744, "clearances": 0.1488, 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0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.1242, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2174, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.08, "projection_minutes": 13.4, "minutes_scale": 1.1254, "appearance_probability": 0.703 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4362, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "assists": 0.0431, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "expected_goals": 0.0413, "goals": 0.0565, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "shots_on_target": 0.2054, "total_shots": 0.4228, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, 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0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2065, "fouls": 0.0916, "fouls_drawn": 0.3262, "blocks": 0.1492, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.7411, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1792 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11000000, "quality_factor": 0.5341, "boost_factor": 1.0016, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.9 to 22.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3048, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assists": 0.0362, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "expected_goals": 0.0203, "goals": 0.0374, "goal_rate": 0.0374, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.3154, "rating": 6.6851, "minutes": 22.36, "total_pass": 8.4623, "accurate_pass": 7.0806, "duels_won": 1.0861, "total_long_balls": 0.1765, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, 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"model_output": 0.3717, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2851 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": 0.0209, "total": 0.3717, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.549852 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.056022 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.049002 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.030189 }, { "name": 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"name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.012283 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.011434 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010014 } ], "others_margin": -0.00725 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0063, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0594, "goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.0727, "shots_on_target": 0.24, "total_shots": 0.668, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.374, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 22.58, "total_pass": 7.8276, "accurate_pass": 7.0894, "duels_won": 1.7254, "total_long_balls": 0.823, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5181, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7265, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3136, "crosses_total": 1.1966, "crosses_accurate": 0.2222, "touches": 13.5402, "possession_lost": 2.4305, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 1.7174, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.3281, "won_contest": 0.2442, "ball_recovery": 0.6704, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.4615, "fouls_drawn": 0.7796, "assists": 0.1365, "assist_rate": 0.1365, "interceptions": 0.321, "tackles_won": 0.2203, "tackles": 0.7015, "clearances": 0.2222, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0011, "offsides": 0.2222, "ball_carries": 4.1959, "total_progression": 11.7085, "progressive_carries": 0.6584, "shots_off_target": 0.428 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0063, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0058)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0594, "goals": 0.0723, "goal_rate": 0.0723, "shots_on_target": 0.2386, "total_shots": 0.6653, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.374, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 22.58, "total_pass": 7.8276, "accurate_pass": 7.0894, "duels_won": 1.7254, "total_long_balls": 0.823, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5181, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7265, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3136, "crosses_total": 1.1969, 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0.0891, "goals": 0.1085, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "shots_on_target": 0.3579, "total_shots": 0.9999, "expected_assists": 0.069, "key_pass": 0.561, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.7414, "accurate_pass": 10.6341, "duels_won": 2.5881, "total_long_balls": 1.2345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4704, "crosses_total": 1.7954, "crosses_accurate": 0.3333, "touches": 20.3103, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 2.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.4921, "won_contest": 0.3663, "ball_recovery": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.69, "fouls_drawn": 1.1644, "assists": 0.2035, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "interceptions": 0.4824, "tackles_won": 0.3303, "tackles": 1.0522, "clearances": 0.3333, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0016, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 6.2938, "total_progression": 17.5628, "progressive_carries": 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11.7414, "accurate_pass": 10.6341, "duels_won": 2.5881, "total_long_balls": 1.2345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4704, "crosses_total": 1.7954, "crosses_accurate": 0.3333, "touches": 20.3103, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 2.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.4921, "won_contest": 0.3663, "ball_recovery": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.69, "fouls_drawn": 1.1644, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4824, "tackles_won": 0.3303, "tackles": 1.0522, "clearances": 0.3333, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 6.2938, "total_progression": 17.5628, "progressive_carries": 0.9876, "shots_off_target": 0.642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, 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0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3579, "total_shots": 0.9999, "expected_assists": 0.0625, "key_pass": 0.561, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.7414, "accurate_pass": 10.6341, "duels_won": 2.5881, "total_long_balls": 1.2345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4704, "crosses_total": 1.7954, "crosses_accurate": 0.3333, "touches": 20.3103, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 2.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.4921, "won_contest": 0.3663, "ball_recovery": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.69, "fouls_drawn": 1.1644, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4824, "tackles_won": 0.3303, "tackles": 1.0522, "clearances": 0.3333, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 6.2938, "total_progression": 17.5628, "progressive_carries": 0.9876, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0409, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0774, "goals": 0.1132, "goal_rate": 0.1132, "shots_on_target": 0.2826, "total_shots": 0.6333, "expected_assists": 0.018, "key_pass": 0.4176, "rating": 6.7526, "minutes": 13.67, "total_pass": 1.0409, "accurate_pass": 1.0409, "duels_won": 2.0818, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.0409, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0409, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.1636, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0409, "won_contest": 1.0409, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0409, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, 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"possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.5614, "won_contest": 1.5614, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5614, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1227, "total_progression": 23.4399, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5261, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.21, "projection_minutes": 13.67, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.6 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1161, "goals": 0.1698, "goal_rate": 0.1698, "shots_on_target": 0.4239, "total_shots": 0.95, "expected_assists": 0.027, "key_pass": 0.6264, "rating": 6.7526, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 1.5614, "accurate_pass": 1.5614, "duels_won": 3.1227, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5614, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5614, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.2454, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.5614, "won_contest": 1.5614, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5614, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1227, "total_progression": 23.4399, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5261, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.17 (squad xG sum 1.2883, xG scale 0.9058, xA scale 0.9058, team xA 0.78 = 0.67 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1052, "goal_rate": 0.1698, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4239, "total_shots": 0.95, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "key_pass": 0.6264, "rating": 6.7526, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 1.5614, "accurate_pass": 1.5614, "duels_won": 3.1227, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5614, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5614, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.2454, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.5614, "won_contest": 1.5614, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5614, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1227, "total_progression": 23.4399, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5261, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.167, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2883, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8594, "team_expected_assists": 0.7785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6671, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9058, "xa_scale": 0.9058, "opponent_lambda": 2.106, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.6 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1161, "after": 0.1052 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1052, "goal_rate": 0.1698, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4239, "total_shots": 0.95, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "key_pass": 0.6264, "rating": 6.7526, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 1.5614, "accurate_pass": 1.5614, "duels_won": 3.1227, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5614, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5614, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.2454, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.5614, "won_contest": 1.5614, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5614, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1227, "total_progression": 23.4399, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5261, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2937, "fifa_rank": 1878.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1052, "goal_rate": 0.1698, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4239, "total_shots": 0.95, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "key_pass": 0.6264, "rating": 6.7526, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 1.5614, "accurate_pass": 1.5614, "duels_won": 3.1227, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5614, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5614, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.2454, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.5614, "won_contest": 1.5614, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5614, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1227, "total_progression": 23.4399, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5261, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0599, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0599, "scorer_weight": 0.0789, "squad_weight_total": 1.2177, "weight_share": 0.0648, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.6, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3393, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3393, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.169 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1052, "goal_rate": 0.1698, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4239, "total_shots": 0.95, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "key_pass": 0.6264, "rating": 6.7526, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 1.5614, "accurate_pass": 1.5614, "duels_won": 3.1227, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5614, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5614, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.2454, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.5614, "won_contest": 1.5614, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5614, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1227, "total_progression": 23.4399, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5261, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0599, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0145, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0145, "provider_weight": 0.0118, "squad_weight_total": 0.7518, "weight_share": 0.0156, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.6, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nico Elvedi", "weight": 0.1196, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1196, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0904, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Sean Longstaff": { "player_id": 866191, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 187, "market_value": 14400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0374, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, 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"assist_probability": 0.0248, "finishing_factor": 1.1665, "creation_factor": 1.0391, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1297, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2453, "expected_assists": 0.0206, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1118, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025044, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.15, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", 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"expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025215, "match_date": "2026-02-21", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1865, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025188, "match_date": "2026-02-10", "home_team": 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"others": 0.0357, "total": 0.3745, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.366465 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.204422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.032281 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.02472 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.023774 } ], "others_margin": 0.03571 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.658891677856445, "model_output": 6.6589, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0702 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0484 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0034, quality 0.573)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3876, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "assists": 0.0383, "assist_rate": 0.0383, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "goals": 0.0502, "goal_rate": 0.0502, "shots_on_target": 0.1826, "total_shots": 0.3758, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 13.4, "total_pass": 4.6585, "accurate_pass": 3.6445, "duels_won": 0.6388, "total_long_balls": 0.6318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2473, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5528, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5328, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1118, "crosses_total": 0.5711, "crosses_accurate": 0.357, "touches": 7.2572, "possession_lost": 1.4618, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.0673, "aerial_won": 0.1924, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.1998, "tackles_won": 0.1192, "tackles": 0.1744, "clearances": 0.1488, 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"importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2731 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.057 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0528 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.052 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0574 } ], "others": -0.1049, "total": 0.4012, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.519502 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.153339 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.142837 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.123119 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.120474 } ], "others_margin": -0.232343 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.75255823135376, "model_output": 6.7526, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0409, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0774, "goals": 0.1132, "goal_rate": 0.1132, "shots_on_target": 0.2826, "total_shots": 0.6333, "expected_assists": 0.018, "key_pass": 0.4176, "rating": 6.7526, "minutes": 13.67, "total_pass": 1.0409, "accurate_pass": 1.0409, "duels_won": 2.0818, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.0409, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0409, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.1636, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0409, "won_contest": 1.0409, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0409, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, 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{ "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0673, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 9.0712, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 7.6065, "accuratePass": 11.8592, "totalShots": 1.1609 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.059021905064582825, "model_output": 0.059, "scale": "per match (raw)", 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0.0722, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0752 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0085 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0066 } ], "others": -0.0092, "total": 0.0722, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.460897 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.18882 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.097679 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.092128 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.078105 } ], "others_margin": -0.119602 } }, { 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"margin": -0.044252 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.039967 } ], "others_margin": -0.220313 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6637521982192993, "model_output": 0.6638, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4623 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1024 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0268 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0204 } ], "others": -0.1177, "total": 0.6638, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.462315 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.102438 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.026759 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.026058 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.020394 } ], "others_margin": -0.11778 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04569666087627411, "model_output": 0.0457, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0024 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.002 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0019 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0006, "total": 0.0457, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.319385 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.052226 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.043635 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.04228 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.04181 } ], "others_margin": -0.012829 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.37168335914611816, "model_output": 0.3717, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2851 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": 0.0209, "total": 0.3717, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.549852 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.056022 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.049002 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.030189 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.028178 } ], "others_margin": 0.057711 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.645003318786621, "model_output": 6.645, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0626 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.0073, "total": 6.645, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.062588 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.01359 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.012283 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.011434 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010014 } ], "others_margin": -0.00725 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0063, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0594, "goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.0727, "shots_on_target": 0.24, "total_shots": 0.668, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.374, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 22.58, "total_pass": 7.8276, "accurate_pass": 7.0894, "duels_won": 1.7254, "total_long_balls": 0.823, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5181, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7265, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3136, "crosses_total": 1.1966, "crosses_accurate": 0.2222, "touches": 13.5402, "possession_lost": 2.4305, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 1.7174, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.3281, "won_contest": 0.2442, "ball_recovery": 0.6704, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.4615, "fouls_drawn": 0.7796, "assists": 0.1365, "assist_rate": 0.1365, "interceptions": 0.321, "tackles_won": 0.2203, "tackles": 0.7015, "clearances": 0.2222, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0011, "offsides": 0.2222, "ball_carries": 4.1959, "total_progression": 11.7085, "progressive_carries": 0.6584, "shots_off_target": 0.428 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0063, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0058)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0594, "goals": 0.0723, "goal_rate": 0.0723, "shots_on_target": 0.2386, "total_shots": 0.6653, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.374, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 22.58, "total_pass": 7.8276, "accurate_pass": 7.0894, "duels_won": 1.7254, "total_long_balls": 0.823, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5181, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7265, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3136, "crosses_total": 1.1969, "crosses_accurate": 0.2222, "touches": 13.5402, "possession_lost": 2.4305, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 1.7174, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.3281, "won_contest": 0.2442, "ball_recovery": 0.6704, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.46, "fouls_drawn": 0.7763, "assists": 0.1357, "assist_rate": 0.1357, "interceptions": 0.3216, "tackles_won": 0.2202, "tackles": 0.7015, "clearances": 0.2222, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0011, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 4.1959, "total_progression": 11.7085, "progressive_carries": 0.6584, "shots_off_target": 0.428 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0058, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2509, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.6 to 36.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0891, "goals": 0.1085, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "shots_on_target": 0.3579, "total_shots": 0.9999, "expected_assists": 0.069, "key_pass": 0.561, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.7414, "accurate_pass": 10.6341, "duels_won": 2.5881, "total_long_balls": 1.2345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4704, "crosses_total": 1.7954, "crosses_accurate": 0.3333, "touches": 20.3103, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 2.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.4921, "won_contest": 0.3663, "ball_recovery": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.69, "fouls_drawn": 1.1644, "assists": 0.2035, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "interceptions": 0.4824, "tackles_won": 0.3303, "tackles": 1.0522, "clearances": 0.3333, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0016, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 6.2938, "total_progression": 17.5628, "progressive_carries": 0.9876, "shots_off_target": 0.642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 36.59, "projection_minutes": 22.58, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.547 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0891, "goals": 0.1085, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "shots_on_target": 0.3579, "total_shots": 0.9999, "expected_assists": 0.069, "key_pass": 0.561, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.7414, "accurate_pass": 10.6341, "duels_won": 2.5881, "total_long_balls": 1.2345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4704, "crosses_total": 1.7954, "crosses_accurate": 0.3333, "touches": 20.3103, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 2.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.4921, "won_contest": 0.3663, "ball_recovery": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.69, "fouls_drawn": 1.1644, "assists": 0.2035, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "interceptions": 0.4824, "tackles_won": 0.3303, "tackles": 1.0522, "clearances": 0.3333, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0016, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 6.2938, "total_progression": 17.5628, "progressive_carries": 0.9876, "shots_off_target": 0.642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.17 (squad xG sum 1.2883, xG scale 0.9058, xA scale 0.9058, team xA 0.78 = 0.67 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3579, "total_shots": 0.9999, "expected_assists": 0.0625, "key_pass": 0.561, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.7414, "accurate_pass": 10.6341, "duels_won": 2.5881, "total_long_balls": 1.2345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4704, "crosses_total": 1.7954, "crosses_accurate": 0.3333, "touches": 20.3103, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 2.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.4921, "won_contest": 0.3663, "ball_recovery": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.69, "fouls_drawn": 1.1644, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4824, "tackles_won": 0.3303, "tackles": 1.0522, "clearances": 0.3333, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 6.2938, "total_progression": 17.5628, "progressive_carries": 0.9876, "shots_off_target": 0.642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1395, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.167, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2883, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8594, "team_expected_assists": 0.7785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6671, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9058, "xa_scale": 0.9058, "opponent_lambda": 2.106, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.547 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0891, "after": 0.0807 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.069, "after": 0.0625 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3579, "total_shots": 0.9999, "expected_assists": 0.0625, "key_pass": 0.561, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.7414, "accurate_pass": 10.6341, "duels_won": 2.5881, "total_long_balls": 1.2345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4704, "crosses_total": 1.7954, "crosses_accurate": 0.3333, "touches": 20.3103, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 2.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.4921, "won_contest": 0.3663, "ball_recovery": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.69, "fouls_drawn": 1.1644, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4824, "tackles_won": 0.3303, "tackles": 1.0522, "clearances": 0.3333, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 6.2938, "total_progression": 17.5628, "progressive_carries": 0.9876, "shots_off_target": 0.642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1395, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 423, "fifa_rank": 500.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3579, "total_shots": 0.9999, "expected_assists": 0.0625, "key_pass": 0.561, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.7414, "accurate_pass": 10.6341, "duels_won": 2.5881, "total_long_balls": 1.2345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4704, "crosses_total": 1.7954, "crosses_accurate": 0.3333, "touches": 20.3103, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 2.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.4921, "won_contest": 0.3663, "ball_recovery": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.69, "fouls_drawn": 1.1644, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4824, "tackles_won": 0.3303, "tackles": 1.0522, "clearances": 0.3333, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0014, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 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-0.360707 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.03152938559651375, "model_output": 0.0315, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0359 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0039 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0105, "total": 0.0315, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.457734 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.200559 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.159733 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", 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"name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.305896 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.176429 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.157659 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.034408 } ], "others_margin": -0.126633 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2661932408809662, "model_output": 0.2662, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3156 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2025 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0426 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0332 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0279 } ], "others": -0.1025, "total": 0.2662, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.31561 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.202451 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.042596 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.03319 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.027887 } ], "others_margin": -0.102537 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.685059547424316, "model_output": 6.6851, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0775 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0292 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0071 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0068 } ], "others": -0.0171, "total": 6.6851, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.077532 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.029157 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026127 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.007059 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.006834 } ], "others_margin": -0.017102 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0016, quality 0.534)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2577, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "assists": 0.0306, "assist_rate": 0.0306, "expected_goals": 0.0172, "goals": 0.0316, "goal_rate": 0.0316, "shots_on_target": 0.0874, "total_shots": 0.2666, "rating": 6.6851, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 7.1544, "accurate_pass": 5.9862, "duels_won": 0.9182, "total_long_balls": 0.1492, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8091, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.396, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.59, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9999, "possession_lost": 1.6508, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6052, "aerial_won": 0.3511, "aerial_lost": 0.307, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0916, "tackles": 0.2409, "clearances": 0.6238, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2065, "fouls": 0.0916, "fouls_drawn": 0.3262, "blocks": 0.1492, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.7411, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1792 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11000000, "quality_factor": 0.5341, "boost_factor": 1.0016, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.9 to 22.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3048, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assists": 0.0362, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "expected_goals": 0.0203, "goals": 0.0374, "goal_rate": 0.0374, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.3154, "rating": 6.6851, "minutes": 22.36, "total_pass": 8.4623, "accurate_pass": 7.0806, "duels_won": 1.0861, "total_long_balls": 0.1765, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0168, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0635, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.828, "possession_lost": 1.9526, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7158, "aerial_won": 0.4153, "aerial_lost": 0.307, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1083, "tackles": 0.2849, "clearances": 0.7378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2065, "fouls": 0.1083, "fouls_drawn": 0.3858, "blocks": 0.1765, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8766, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.212, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.516, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.36 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.36, "projection_minutes": 18.9, "minutes_scale": 1.1828, "appearance_probability": 0.516 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3048, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assists": 0.0362, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "expected_goals": 0.0203, "goals": 0.0374, "goal_rate": 0.0374, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.3154, "rating": 6.6851, "minutes": 22.36, "total_pass": 8.4623, "accurate_pass": 7.0806, "duels_won": 1.0861, "total_long_balls": 0.1765, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0168, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0635, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.828, "possession_lost": 1.9526, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7158, "aerial_won": 0.4153, "aerial_lost": 0.307, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1083, "tackles": 0.2849, "clearances": 0.7378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2065, "fouls": 0.1083, "fouls_drawn": 0.3858, "blocks": 0.1765, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8766, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.212, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.516, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.36 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.17 (squad xG sum 1.2883, xG scale 0.9058, xA scale 0.9058, team xA 0.78 = 0.67 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3048, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0184, "goal_rate": 0.0374, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.3154, "rating": 6.6851, "minutes": 22.36, "total_pass": 8.4623, "accurate_pass": 7.0806, "duels_won": 1.0861, "total_long_balls": 0.1765, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0168, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0635, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.828, "possession_lost": 1.9526, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7158, "aerial_won": 0.4153, "aerial_lost": 0.307, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1083, "tackles": 0.2849, "clearances": 0.7378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2065, "fouls": 0.1083, "fouls_drawn": 0.3858, "blocks": 0.1765, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8766, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.212, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.516, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.36, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2432, "creation_factor": 1.1463 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.167, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2883, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8594, "team_expected_assists": 0.7785, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6671, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9058, "xa_scale": 0.9058, "opponent_lambda": 2.106, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.516 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3048, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0184, "goal_rate": 0.0374, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.3154, "rating": 6.6851, "minutes": 22.36, "total_pass": 8.4623, "accurate_pass": 7.0806, "duels_won": 1.0861, "total_long_balls": 0.1765, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0168, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0635, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.828, "possession_lost": 1.9526, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7158, "aerial_won": 0.4153, "aerial_lost": 0.307, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1083, "tackles": 0.2849, "clearances": 0.7378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2065, "fouls": 0.1083, "fouls_drawn": 0.3858, "blocks": 0.1765, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8766, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.212, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.516, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.36, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2432, "creation_factor": 1.1463, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3426, "fifa_rank": 2209.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3048, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0184, "goal_rate": 0.0374, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.3154, "rating": 6.6851, "minutes": 22.36, "total_pass": 8.4623, "accurate_pass": 7.0806, "duels_won": 1.0861, "total_long_balls": 0.1765, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0168, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0635, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.828, "possession_lost": 1.9526, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7158, "aerial_won": 0.4153, "aerial_lost": 0.307, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1083, "tackles": 0.2849, "clearances": 0.7378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2065, "fouls": 0.1083, "fouls_drawn": 0.3858, "blocks": 0.1765, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8766, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.212, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.516, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.36, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0094, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2432, "creation_factor": 1.1463, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0094, "scorer_weight": 0.0118, "squad_weight_total": 1.2177, "weight_share": 0.0097, "finishing_factor": 1.2432, "appearance_weight": 0.516, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.3393, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3393, "runner_up": "Noah Okafor", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.169 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3048, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0184, "goal_rate": 0.0374, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.3154, "rating": 6.6851, "minutes": 22.36, "total_pass": 8.4623, "accurate_pass": 7.0806, "duels_won": 1.0861, "total_long_balls": 0.1765, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0168, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0635, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.828, "possession_lost": 1.9526, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7158, "aerial_won": 0.4153, "aerial_lost": 0.307, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1083, "tackles": 0.2849, "clearances": 0.7378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2065, "fouls": 0.1083, "fouls_drawn": 0.3858, "blocks": 0.1765, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8766, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.212, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.516, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.36, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.598, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0094, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0116, "finishing_factor": 1.2432, "creation_factor": 1.1463, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0116, "provider_weight": 0.0135, "squad_weight_total": 0.7518, "weight_share": 0.0179, "creation_factor": 1.1463, "appearance_weight": 0.516, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nico Elvedi", "weight": 0.1196, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1196, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0904, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.17, "expected_assists": 0.78, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 400, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.9, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Martin Ødegaard", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 77000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.879, "defenders": [ "James Justin" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.55, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.528, "xg_contribution": 0.1623, "xg_multiplier": 1.1581, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Justin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 12400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.472 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martin Ødegaard (LW) is slightly favored against James Justin in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. The quality gap is significant (€77M vs €12M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.16 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.162 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Eberechi Eze", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 69000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.869, "defenders": [ "Anton Stach" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.434, "xg_contribution": 0.1354, "xg_multiplier": 1.0213, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Anton Stach", "role": "CM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.566 } ], "duel_analysis": "Eberechi Eze (CAM) is evenly matched against Anton Stach in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. The quality gap is significant (€69M vs €27M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.135 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Bukayo Saka", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 115000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "James Justin", "Nico Elvedi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.52, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.323, "xg_contribution": 0.4236, "xg_multiplier": 1.1804, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Justin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 12400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.677 }, { "player": "Nico Elvedi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.677 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bukayo Saka (ST) is slightly favored against James Justin and Nico Elvedi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€115M vs €10M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.18 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.424 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Viktor Gyökeres", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 61000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.855, "defenders": [ "James Justin", "Nico Elvedi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.52, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.34, "xg_contribution": 0.3821, "xg_multiplier": 1.2055, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Justin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 12400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.66 }, { "player": "Nico Elvedi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.66 } ], "duel_analysis": "Viktor Gyökeres (ST) has a clear attacking advantage against James Justin and Nico Elvedi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€61M vs €10M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.21 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.382 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Bruno Guimarães", "Gabriel Magalhães" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.872, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3549, "xg_multiplier": 0.8606, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bruno Guimarães", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 72000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Gabriel Magalhães", "role": "CB", "market_value": 70000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Bruno Guimarães and Gabriel Magalhães in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €71M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.86 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.355 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Noah Okafor", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Bruno Guimarães", "Gabriel Magalhães" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.872, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1627, "xg_multiplier": 0.8657, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bruno Guimarães", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 72000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Gabriel Magalhães", "role": "CB", "market_value": 70000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Noah Okafor (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Bruno Guimarães and Gabriel Magalhães in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €71M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.163 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Cristhian Mosquera" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.77, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.306, "xg_contribution": 0.0321, "xg_multiplier": 0.8616, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Cristhian Mosquera", "role": "RB", "market_value": 38000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.694 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gabriel Gudmundsson (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Cristhian Mosquera in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €38M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.86 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jayden Bogle", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 16000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.59, "defenders": [ "Jurriën Timber" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.875, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.29, "xg_contribution": 0.1132, "xg_multiplier": 0.8377, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jurriën Timber", "role": "LB", "market_value": 73000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.71 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jayden Bogle (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Jurriën Timber in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €73M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.84 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.113 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Anton Stach", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 192, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Bruno Guimarães" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.873, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.414, "xg_contribution": 0.1428, "xg_multiplier": 0.9476, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bruno Guimarães", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 72000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.586 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anton Stach (CM) is evenly matched against Bruno Guimarães in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €72M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.143 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ethan Ampadu", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 28000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.702, "defenders": [ "Bruno Guimarães" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.873, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.378, "xg_contribution": 0.0372, "xg_multiplier": 0.8941, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bruno Guimarães", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 72000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.622 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ethan Ampadu (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Bruno Guimarães in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€28M vs €72M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.89 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.037 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ao Tanaka", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 14000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.568, "defenders": [ "Bruno Guimarães" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.873, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.307, "xg_contribution": 0.0568, "xg_multiplier": 0.7894, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bruno Guimarães", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 72000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.693 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ao Tanaka (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Bruno Guimarães in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€14M vs €72M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.79 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.057 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.905, "away_midfield_power": 0.689, "home_creative_power": 0.946, "away_creative_power": 0.531, "home_defensive_power": 0.739, "away_defensive_power": 0.585, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.568, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Bruno Guimarães", "Eberechi Eze", "Martin Ødegaard", "Declan Rice" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Anton Stach", "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "Ao Tanaka", "Ethan Ampadu", "Jayden Bogle" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 7.2, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.7, "home_throughball_threat": 3.4, "away_throughball_threat": 2.2, "key_personal_duel": "Declan Rice vs Ethan Ampadu", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.031, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.974 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.106, "away_lambda": 1.167, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Martin Ødegaard": { "opponents": [ "James Justin", "Gabriel Gudmundsson" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Eberechi Eze": { "opponents": [ "Anton Stach", "Jayden Bogle" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bukayo Saka": { "opponents": [ "James Justin", "Nico Elvedi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Viktor Gyökeres": { "opponents": [ "James Justin", "Nico Elvedi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bruno Guimarães": { "opponents": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "Noah Okafor", "Anton Stach", "Ethan Ampadu", "Ao Tanaka" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gabriel Magalhães": { "opponents": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "Noah Okafor" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Cristhian Mosquera": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jurriën Timber": { "opponents": [ "Jayden Bogle" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Declan Rice": { "opponents": [ "Ao Tanaka" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "David Raya": { "opponents": [ "Noah Okafor", "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Riccardo Calafiori": { "opponents": [ "Noah Okafor" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "James Justin": { "opponents": [ "Martin Ødegaard", "Bukayo Saka", "Viktor Gyökeres" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Anton Stach": { "opponents": [ "Eberechi Eze", "Bruno Guimarães" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nico Elvedi": { "opponents": [ "Bukayo Saka", "Viktor Gyökeres" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dominic Calvert-Lewin": { "opponents": [ "Bruno Guimarães", "Gabriel Magalhães" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Noah Okafor": { "opponents": [ "Bruno Guimarães", "Gabriel Magalhães" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Gabriel Gudmundsson": { "opponents": [ "Cristhian Mosquera", "Martin Ødegaard" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jayden Bogle": { "opponents": [ "Jurriën Timber", "Eberechi Eze" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ethan Ampadu": { "opponents": [ "Bruno Guimarães" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ao Tanaka": { "opponents": [ "Bruno Guimarães", "Declan Rice" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "James Trafford": { "opponents": [ "Bukayo Saka", "Viktor Gyökeres" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Tarik Muharemović": { "opponents": [ "Bukayo Saka" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Declan Rice vs Ethan Ampadu). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.10, Away: 0.90. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9054, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8871, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1365, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9529, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8725, "home_midfield_factor": 1.031, "away_midfield_factor": 0.974, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8619, "away_avg_quality": 0.6368, "avg_quality_gap": 0.2251, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.208, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.0964, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.132, "elite_count_gap": 9, "combined_quality_gap": 0.4775, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2626, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1528, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.1034, "n_duels": 4, "duel_confidence": 0.67, "result": 1.2178 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.031, "result": 1.2555 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 1.3183 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.5161 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9481, "result": 1.4374 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9054, "result": 1.3014 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9529, "result": 1.2402 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.4202 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.4202, "result": 1.4202, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.4775, "factor": 1.2626, "pre": 1.4202, "result": 1.7932 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.7932 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 2.013 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 1.3793, "result": 1.8913 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.8913, "result": 1.891, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.05, "result": 1.986 }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1244, "pre": 1.986, "result": 2.233 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 2.233 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.943, "input_total": 3.273, "result": 2.1056 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 2.1056, "result": 2.106, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 2.106 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8997, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0373 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.974, "result": 1.0103 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 0.9598 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9598 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9447, "result": 0.9067 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8871, "result": 0.8043 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8725, "result": 0.7018 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1365, "result": 0.8383 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.8383, "result": 0.8383, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.4775, "factor": 0.8472, "pre": 0.8383, "result": 0.7102 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7102 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1871, "result": 0.8971 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 1.3793, "result": 0.9897 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.9897, "result": 0.99, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.3, "result": 1.287 }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9623, "pre": 1.287, "result": 1.238 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.238 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.943, "input_total": 3.273, "result": 1.1674 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.1674, "result": 1.167, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.167 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1871, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Arsenal", "away_squad": "Leeds United", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.4775, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1244, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9623, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.986, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.287, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 2.233, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.238, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.8913, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.9897, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 2.106, "final_away_lambda": 1.167 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 2, "opponent_position": 5, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9481, "attack_index": 1.105, "defense_concede_index": 0.785, "form_multiplier": 1.016, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.56, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.11, "team_ppg": 1.82, "opponent_ppg": 1.55 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 5, "opponent_position": 2, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9447, "attack_index": 0.942, "defense_concede_index": 0.927, "form_multiplier": 0.984, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.33, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.31, "team_ppg": 1.55, "opponent_ppg": 1.82 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Arsenal vs Leeds. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-2-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.891, Away 0.990). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 2.106, Away 1.167 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Arsenal", "away_squad": "Leeds United", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 2.106, "away_lambda": 1.167, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.891, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.99 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-09T13:31:10Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }