{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Man Utd", "away_team": "Tottenham", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261010", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0983, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Man Utd", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2537, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0983 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1203 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0919 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0766 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0763 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0655, "0-1": 0.0763, "0-2": 0.0464, "0-3": 0.0186, "0-4": 0.0056, "0-5": 0.0013, "1-0": 0.0983, "1-1": 0.1203, "1-2": 0.0715, "1-3": 0.0286, "1-4": 0.0086, "1-5": 0.0021, "2-0": 0.0766, "2-1": 0.0919, "2-2": 0.0552, "2-3": 0.0221, "2-4": 0.0066, "2-5": 0.0016, "3-0": 0.0394, "3-1": 0.0473, "3-2": 0.0284, "3-3": 0.0113, "3-4": 0.0034, "3-5": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.0152, "4-1": 0.0182, "4-2": 0.0109, "4-3": 0.0044, "4-4": 0.0013, "5-0": 0.0047, "5-1": 0.0056, "5-2": 0.0034, "5-3": 0.0013, "6-0": 0.0012, "6-1": 0.0014, "6-2": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4511, "draw": 0.2537, "away_win": 0.2953 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5166, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4834, "btts_yes": 0.5503, "btts_no": 0.4497, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3012, "away_clean_sheet": 0.214 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.88, "MCR": 7.28, "ATR": 7.01, "GK": 6.96 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.89, "MCR": 6.94, "ATR": 6.77, "GK": 7.0 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Man Utd vs Tottenham. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 7 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Bruno Fernandes", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Kobbie Mainoo vs Sandro Tonali will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.06, Away: 0.92. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.73, "home_lambda": 1.542, "away_lambda": 1.2, "h2h": { "available": false, "meetings": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_wins": 0, "draws": 0, "home_multiplier": 1.0, "away_multiplier": 1.0 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1203, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4511, "draw": 0.2537, "away_win": 0.2953 }, "favorite": "Man Utd", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4511, "fair_spread": 0.342, "fair_total": 2.742, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Man Utd", "estimate": 1.542, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Tottenham", "estimate": 1.2, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5166, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5503, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Man Utd", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3012, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Tottenham", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.214, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Bryan Mbeumo (Man Utd)", "estimate": 0.3504, "probability": 0.2956, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Dominic Solanke (Tottenham)", "estimate": 0.2091, "probability": 0.1887, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd)", "estimate": 0.2465, "probability": 0.2185, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Sávio (Tottenham)", "estimate": 0.1453, "probability": 0.1352, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.742, "expected_total_shots": 31, "expected_total_passes": 981, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.9, "possession_home_pct": 49.6, "possession_away_pct": 50.4, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Man Utd", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4511, "script": "Man Utd is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.34 goals and fair total 2.74.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Tottenham must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Man Utd lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Man Utd chance creation leans on Bryan Mbeumo against Jan Paul van Hecke, Micky van de Ven in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Man Utd: starters carry the main goal usage through Bruno Fernandes; bench watchlist: Benjamin Šeško, Leny Yoro, Amad Diallo.", "Tottenham: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Xavi Simons, Mykhailo Mudryk, Djed Spence.", "Assist usage should flow through Marcus Rashford; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Man Utd tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 1.37 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Tottenham is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Man Utd.", "Tottenham wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Man Utd": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Matheus Cunha": { "player_id": 886363, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 184, "market_value": 79000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1777, "goal_rate": 0.2549, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1563, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 6.9793, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 11.3677, "dispossessed": 1.2077, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.1006, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2054, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 76, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9628, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jan Paul van Hecke, Micky van de Ven", "opponent_faced": "Jan Paul van Hecke, Micky van de Ven", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1628, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1447, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0541, "expected_assists": 0.3943, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.108, "expected_assists": 0.0274, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363259, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1178, "expected_assists": 0.054, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.106, "expected_assists": 0.1515, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363634, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2431, "expected_assists": 0.2127, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 8.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.319, "expected_assists": 0.4868, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3259, "expected_assists": 0.1151, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023939, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0933, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025032, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2174, "expected_assists": 0.0173, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025024, "match_date": "2026-04-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1341, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 356, "combined_rank_score": 231.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 261.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0909, "sofascore_appearances": 33.0, "fifa_rank": 201.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9793, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Matheus Cunha", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jorginho", "ranking": 351 }, { "player_name": "Renê", "ranking": 352 }, { "player_name": "Azizbek Amanov", "ranking": 353 }, { "player_name": "Aboubacar Toungara", "ranking": 354 }, { "player_name": "Sharof Mukhiddinov", "ranking": 355 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Antoine Semenyo", "ranking": 357 }, { "player_name": "Cho Sang-Jun", "ranking": 358 }, { "player_name": "Cristiano Ronaldo", "ranking": 359 }, { "player_name": "Riccardo Calafiori", "ranking": 360 }, { "player_name": "Patrik Schick", "ranking": 361 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.768, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 38, "data_confidence": 0.768, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0131, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester Utd", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 158.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.5555555555555556, "shots_per90": 2.85, "shots_on_target_pct": 40.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 38 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Manchester Utd, rel: 0.12, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.5555555555555556)." }, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0131, quality 0.881)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1654, "goals": 0.2671, "goal_rate": 0.2671, "shots_on_target": 0.7787, "total_shots": 2.2191, "expected_assists": 0.1608, "key_pass": 1.6132, "rating": 6.9793, "minutes": 83.6, "total_pass": 28.3305, "accurate_pass": 23.3939, "duels_won": 3.5418, "total_long_balls": 0.8955, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4494, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.2984, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4447, "crosses_total": 1.7963, "crosses_accurate": 0.2515, "touches": 44.9561, "possession_lost": 11.3677, "dispossessed": 1.2077, "duels_lost": 4.9852, "aerial_lost": 1.262, "total_contest": 1.88, "won_contest": 0.9935, "ball_recovery": 2.906, "challenges_lost": 0.4189, "fouls": 1.303, "fouls_drawn": 1.2751, "assists": 0.0968, "assist_rate": 0.0968, "interceptions": 0.5191, 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"player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.4036, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Bruno Fernandes", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 3 }, { "player_name": "Mariano Díaz", "ranking": 4 }, { "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking": 5 }, { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 }, { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 7 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Felix Horn Myhre", "ranking": 9 }, { "player_name": "Raphinha", "ranking": 10 }, { "player_name": "Vini Jr.", "ranking": 11 }, { "player_name": "Nico López", "ranking": 12 }, { "player_name": "Harry Kane", "ranking": 13 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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0.503677 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7974305152893066, "model_output": 0.7974, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1272 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.1002 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0696 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0293 } ], "others": 0.1078, "total": 0.7974, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.331231 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.200486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118908 }, { "name": 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false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.149178 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.101483 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.053476 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.04763 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.046917 } ], "others_margin": 0.156036 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 40, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0076, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.9778, "expected_assists": 0.2536, "assists": 0.3668, "assist_rate": 0.3668, "expected_goals": 0.2997, "goals": 0.3959, "goal_rate": 0.3959, "shots_on_target": 0.8035, "total_shots": 2.5926, "rating": 7.4036, "minutes": 89.49, "total_pass": 60.6685, "accurate_pass": 50.6184, "duels_won": 2.0578, "total_long_balls": 6.3025, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8817, "total_own_half_passes": 17.0105, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9527, "total_opp_half_passes": 43.658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 35.6658, "crosses_total": 7.2191, "crosses_accurate": 2.0134, "touches": 78.3424, "possession_lost": 18.0326, "dispossessed": 0.7445, "duels_lost": 3.6246, "aerial_won": 0.3391, "aerial_lost": 0.4303, "interceptions": 0.3191, "tackles_won": 0.8454, "tackles": 1.1749, "clearances": 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0.123314 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.092123 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.068986 } ], "others_margin": 0.214534 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.652756690979004, "model_output": 1.6528, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2014 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1712 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.11 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0602 } ], "others": 0.3288, "total": 1.6528, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": 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"player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.3982, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3982, "runner_up": "Bryan Mbeumo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.321 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3504, "goal_rate": 0.2834, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8264, "total_shots": 2.1819, "expected_assists": 0.1549, "key_pass": 1.6741, "rating": 6.9876, "minutes": 84.74, "total_pass": 26.6213, "accurate_pass": 22.7711, "duels_won": 3.0627, "total_long_balls": 0.6887, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3386, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.1318, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9668, "crosses_total": 3.8985, "crosses_accurate": 1.244, "touches": 43.3103, "possession_lost": 11.2267, "dispossessed": 0.7094, "duels_lost": 6.3723, "aerial_lost": 2.284, "total_contest": 2.3381, "won_contest": 0.6441, "ball_recovery": 2.6692, 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"name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.093848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.076982 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.07513 } ], "others_margin": -0.267801 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.21005761623382568, "model_output": 0.2101, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.044 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0346 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0502, "total": 0.2101, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 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"name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0272 } ], "others": -0.09, "total": 0.879, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.145032 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.070667 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.039082 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.029453 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.027206 } ], "others_margin": -0.090102 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.220595359802246, "model_output": 7.2206, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1481 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0913 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0298 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0293 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0292 } ], "others": 0.044, "total": 7.2206, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.148125 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.091318 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.029763 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.0293 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.029198 } ], "others_margin": 0.044022 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0145, quality 0.873)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2665, "expected_assists": 0.0931, "assists": 0.0834, "assist_rate": 0.0834, "expected_goals": 0.0524, "goals": 0.0498, "goal_rate": 0.0498, "shots_on_target": 0.2131, "total_shots": 0.8917, "rating": 7.2206, "minutes": 86.44, "total_pass": 62.7607, "accurate_pass": 57.613, "duels_won": 4.8947, "total_long_balls": 2.6159, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9197, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0778, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.5519, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.6829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.0611, "crosses_total": 0.1698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0309, "touches": 77.5029, "possession_lost": 8.4115, "dispossessed": 1.2015, "duels_lost": 4.1789, "aerial_won": 0.4339, "aerial_lost": 0.7351, "interceptions": 1.5276, "tackles_won": 1.0396, "tackles": 1.496, "clearances": 0.9471, "total_contest": 2.4592, "won_contest": 1.7762, "challenges_lost": 0.6471, "fouls": 0.9122, "fouls_drawn": 1.1885, "blocks": 0.491, "big_chances_created": 0.0435, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0126, "ball_carries": 27.1744, "total_progression": 115.5528, "progressive_carries": 2.5794, "shots_off_target": 0.6786 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 72000000, "quality_factor": 0.8734, "boost_factor": 1.0145, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0063)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2665, "expected_assists": 0.0931, "assists": 0.0829, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "expected_goals": 0.0524, "goals": 0.0495, "goal_rate": 0.0495, "shots_on_target": 0.2118, "total_shots": 0.9072, "rating": 7.2206, "minutes": 86.44, "total_pass": 62.7607, "accurate_pass": 57.613, "duels_won": 4.8947, "total_long_balls": 2.6159, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9197, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0778, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.5519, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.6829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.0611, "crosses_total": 0.1742, "crosses_accurate": 0.0309, "touches": 77.5029, "possession_lost": 8.4115, "dispossessed": 1.2015, "duels_lost": 4.1789, "aerial_won": 0.4339, "aerial_lost": 0.7351, "interceptions": 1.529, "tackles_won": 1.044, "tackles": 1.496, "clearances": 0.9471, "total_contest": 2.4592, "won_contest": 1.7762, "challenges_lost": 0.6471, "fouls": 0.9065, "fouls_drawn": 1.192, "blocks": 0.491, "big_chances_created": 0.0435, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0126, "ball_carries": 27.1744, "total_progression": 115.5528, "progressive_carries": 2.5794, "shots_off_target": 0.6786 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0063, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9604, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", 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0.9471, "total_contest": 2.4592, "won_contest": 1.7762, "challenges_lost": 0.6471, "fouls": 0.9065, "fouls_drawn": 1.192, "blocks": 0.491, "big_chances_created": 0.0435, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0126, "ball_carries": 27.1744, "total_progression": 115.5528, "progressive_carries": 2.5794, "shots_off_target": 0.6786 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2665, "expected_assists": 0.0931, "assists": 0.0829, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "expected_goals": 0.0551, "goals": 0.0521, "goal_rate": 0.0521, "shots_on_target": 0.2228, "total_shots": 0.9542, "rating": 7.2206, "minutes": 86.44, "total_pass": 62.7607, "accurate_pass": 57.613, "duels_won": 4.8947, "total_long_balls": 2.6159, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9197, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0778, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.5519, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.6829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.0611, "crosses_total": 0.1742, "crosses_accurate": 0.0309, "touches": 77.5029, "possession_lost": 8.4115, "dispossessed": 1.2015, "duels_lost": 4.1789, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.7351, "interceptions": 1.529, "tackles_won": 1.044, "tackles": 1.496, "clearances": 0.9471, "total_contest": 2.4592, "won_contest": 1.7762, "challenges_lost": 0.6471, "fouls": 0.9065, "fouls_drawn": 1.192, "blocks": 0.491, "big_chances_created": 0.0435, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0133, "ball_carries": 27.1744, "total_progression": 115.5528, "progressive_carries": 2.5794, "shots_off_target": 0.7138, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0518, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.455, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Archie Gray", "opponent_faced": "Archie Gray", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, 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1.3815, xG scale 1.1162, xA scale 0.9721, team xA 1.23 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2665, "expected_assists": 0.0905, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0615, "goal_rate": 0.0521, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2228, "total_shots": 0.9542, "rating": 7.2206, "minutes": 86.44, "total_pass": 62.7607, "accurate_pass": 57.613, "duels_won": 4.8947, "total_long_balls": 2.6159, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9197, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0778, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.5519, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.6829, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.0611, "crosses_total": 0.1742, "crosses_accurate": 0.0309, "touches": 77.5029, "possession_lost": 8.4115, "dispossessed": 1.2015, "duels_lost": 4.1789, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.7351, "interceptions": 1.529, "tackles_won": 1.044, "tackles": 1.496, "clearances": 0.9471, "total_contest": 2.4592, "won_contest": 1.7762, "challenges_lost": 0.6471, "fouls": 0.9065, "fouls_drawn": 1.192, "blocks": 0.491, 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"margin": -0.13426 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.102195 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.040049 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.029226 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.02139 } ], "others_margin": 0.023953 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7270681858062744, "model_output": 0.7271, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.173 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0566 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0304 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0286 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0234 } ], "others": 0.0048, "total": 0.7271, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.172965 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056598 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.030377 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.028557 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.023431 } ], "others_margin": 0.004763 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.1188435554504395, "model_output": 7.1188, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0919 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.062 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.036 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0355 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0173, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8821, "tackles": 1.1721, "tackles_won": 0.7778, "clearances": 4.31, "aerial_won": 1.3294, "total_shots": 0.7397, "rating": 7.1188, "minutes": 88.42, "total_pass": 70.1099, "accurate_pass": 63.405, "duels_won": 3.1334, "total_long_balls": 6.5941, "accurate_long_balls": 3.6082, "total_own_half_passes": 38.523, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.9295, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.5869, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.4754, "crosses_total": 0.0439, "crosses_accurate": 0.0273, "touches": 80.9445, "possession_lost": 7.5237, "dispossessed": 0.1641, "duels_lost": 2.2927, "aerial_lost": 1.196, "total_contest": 0.6319, "won_contest": 0.5876, "ball_recovery": 3.8686, "challenges_lost": 0.352, "fouls": 0.5362, "fouls_drawn": 0.065, "blocks": 0.7178, "goals": 0.0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0000, quality 0.506)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0207, "tackles": 1.1713, "tackles_won": 0.7133, "clearances": 4.9763, "aerial_won": 2.3388, "total_shots": 0.7606, "rating": 6.8585, "minutes": 89.05, "total_pass": 55.7864, "accurate_pass": 49.5305, "duels_won": 5.2004, "total_long_balls": 5.7404, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8927, "total_own_half_passes": 31.8334, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.4303, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.953, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1002, "crosses_total": 0.5972, "crosses_accurate": 0.239, "touches": 67.9291, "possession_lost": 7.1692, "dispossessed": 0.0036, "duels_lost": 2.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.0664, "total_contest": 0.3695, "won_contest": 0.3477, "ball_recovery": 3.8647, "challenges_lost": 0.4056, "fouls": 1.1761, "fouls_drawn": 0.8414, "blocks": 0.5061, "goals": 0.0053, 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"margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.365285 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.063001 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.026352 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.024956 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.024045 } ], "others_margin": 0.066724 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.755066871643066, "model_output": 6.7551, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0377 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0102 } ], "others": -0.0288, "total": 6.7551, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.037658 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023253 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016289 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.010865 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.010183 } ], "others_margin": -0.028865 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0067, quality 0.702)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0008, "tackles": 1.9065, "tackles_won": 1.1111, "clearances": 2.3501, "aerial_won": 1.007, "total_shots": 0.9954, "rating": 6.7551, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 39.8782, "accurate_pass": 34.2595, "duels_won": 4.2034, "total_long_balls": 2.5928, "accurate_long_balls": 0.995, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.358, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9636, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9015, "crosses_total": 1.8429, "crosses_accurate": 0.4919, "touches": 58.8487, "possession_lost": 10.0209, "dispossessed": 0.2309, "duels_lost": 3.1902, "aerial_lost": 0.4427, "total_contest": 1.3977, "won_contest": 0.6, "ball_recovery": 5.1482, "challenges_lost": 0.5937, "fouls": 1.1252, "fouls_drawn": 0.5123, "blocks": 0.2888, "goals": 0.003, 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6.959, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Senne Lammens", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Raniele", "ranking": 546 }, { "player_name": "David Button", "ranking": 547 }, { "player_name": "Demethryus", "ranking": 548 }, { "player_name": "Pil-su Choi", "ranking": 549 }, { "player_name": "Aaron Mayol", "ranking": 550 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Agustín Arce", "ranking": 552 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Panach Olmo", "ranking": 553 }, { "player_name": "Edu Altozano", "ranking": 554 }, { "player_name": "Joseph Otunenche", "ranking": 555 }, { "player_name": "Dean Huijsen", "ranking": 556 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", 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"top_features": [ { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0385 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0166, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0404 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0254 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0378, "total": -0.1408, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.040445 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.025442 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.020023 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.014205 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.013585 } ], "others_margin": -0.037667 } }, { 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"Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2687, "combined_rank_score": 939.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 757.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6567, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 1121.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6362, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Leny Yoro", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Park Tae-yong", "ranking": 2682 }, { "player_name": "Valentín Barco", "ranking": 2683 }, { "player_name": "Denis Bouanga", "ranking": 2684 }, { "player_name": "Paulo Gazzaniga", "ranking": 2685 }, { "player_name": "Evander", "ranking": 2686 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Josh Cullen", "ranking": 2688 }, { "player_name": "Jorge Espejo", "ranking": 2689 }, { "player_name": "Samuele 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"margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.734812 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.04434 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.043363 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.02972 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.029164 } ], "others_margin": -0.029019 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.9574339389801025, "model_output": 0.9574, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.2374 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1911 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1194 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0342 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"name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0311 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0256 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0212 } ], "others": -0.0005, "total": 0.4435, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.907749 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.263551 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.075328 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.062485 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.048839 } ], "others_margin": -0.00126 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.22000056505203247, "model_output": 0.22, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1876 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.066 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0388 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0117, "total": 0.22, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.187639 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.066021 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.038837 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.013111 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011532 } ], "others_margin": -0.011665 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.636218070983887, "model_output": 6.6362, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0407, "total": 6.6362, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.031017 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.026065 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022528 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.014417 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.014213 } ], "others_margin": -0.040674 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0117, quality 0.809)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3949, "tackles": 0.6107, "tackles_won": 0.3687, "clearances": 0.9686, "aerial_won": 0.4487, "total_shots": 0.2226, "rating": 6.6362, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9505, "accurate_pass": 7.851, "duels_won": 0.9338, "total_long_balls": 0.6296, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2952, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2118, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8891, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7387, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9619, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4391, "possession_lost": 1.5658, "dispossessed": 0.1837, "duels_lost": 0.9765, "aerial_lost": 0.2877, "total_contest": 0.186, "won_contest": 0.0323, "ball_recovery": 0.4812, "challenges_lost": 0.0613, "fouls": 0.2901, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "blocks": 0.3041, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 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"season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025037, "match_date": "2026-01-07", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2698, "expected_assists": 0.008, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 51, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025284, "match_date": "2026-01-04", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 50, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3363, "combined_rank_score": 1313.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 442.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9067, "sofascore_appearances": 17.0, "fifa_rank": 2184.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7622, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ayden Heaven", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Billy Gilmour", "ranking": 3358 }, { "player_name": "Bernardo", "ranking": 3359 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Torró", "ranking": 3360 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Walker", "ranking": 3361 }, { "player_name": "Nikola Moro", "ranking": 3362 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Aron Dønnum", "ranking": 3364 }, { "player_name": "Iñaki Peña", "ranking": 3365 }, { "player_name": "Liam Scales", "ranking": 3366 }, { "player_name": "Matías Vecino", "ranking": 3367 }, { "player_name": "Maxime Estève", "ranking": 3368 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 18, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 18, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.738792805130341, 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2.2272, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.2427, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.117, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.673, "possession_lost": 0.1257, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4373, "aerial_lost": 0.2326, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.776, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2047, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1257, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1257, "assist_rate": 0.1257, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0103, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1257, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.2341, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1257, "shots_off_target": 0.1707 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1585, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1347, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-27", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1145, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0973, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-20", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0827, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0703, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-23", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0598, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-17", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0508, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-07", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0432, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-04", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0367, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 18.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 2.3702, "aerialWon": 0.8314, "totalClearance_p90": 8.3656, "totalTackle": 1.3692, "totalPass": 35.7405 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3890598714351654, "model_output": 0.3891, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4405 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0502 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0149 } ], "others": -0.0325, "total": 0.3891, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.721182 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.128302 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.061933 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.041805 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.035999 } ], "others_margin": -0.080275 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5347495675086975, "model_output": 0.5347, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7592 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0723, "total": 0.5347, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.786741 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.031509 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.023744 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.018449 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.018374 } ], "others_margin": -0.126717 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.31753769516944885, "model_output": 0.3175, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4527 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0376, "total": 0.3175, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.754715 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.041829 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.027751 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.027354 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.026375 } ], "others_margin": -0.111722 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.3223925828933716, "model_output": 1.3224, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1495 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1777 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1691 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0645 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0403 } ], "others": -0.0757, "total": 1.3224, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.974935 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.146727 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.140095 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.048701 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.029229 } ], "others_margin": -0.055704 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.45068344473838806, "model_output": 0.4507, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8458 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1173 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0346 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.033 } ], "others": -0.0011, "total": 0.4507, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.946821 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.246916 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.086598 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.086229 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.075847 } ], "others_margin": -0.002285 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.17065131664276123, "model_output": 0.1707, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2396 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0106 } ], "others": -0.0386, "total": 0.1707, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.239624 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": -0.012123 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.011774 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011286 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.010604 } ], "others_margin": -0.038617 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.762152194976807, "model_output": 6.7622, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0099 } ], "others": -0.013, "total": 6.7622, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.018342 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016882 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010667 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010489 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.009879 } ], "others_margin": -0.01316 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 18, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0148, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3948, "tackles": 0.5427, "tackles_won": 0.3222, "clearances": 1.342, "aerial_won": 0.4574, "total_shots": 0.1732, "rating": 6.7622, "minutes": 11.41, "total_pass": 3.5213, "accurate_pass": 3.3937, "duels_won": 0.236, "total_long_balls": 0.4629, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4629, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2602, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2602, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.2611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1335, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.7422, "possession_lost": 0.1276, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4438, "aerial_lost": 0.236, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7875, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2077, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1276, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1276, "assist_rate": 0.1276, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0105, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1276, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.2376, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1276, "shots_off_target": 0.1732 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732, "boost_factor": 1.0148, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 18, "history_shrink": 0.2174, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0094)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3911, "tackles": 0.5427, "tackles_won": 0.3192, "clearances": 1.342, "aerial_won": 0.4574, "total_shots": 0.174, "rating": 6.7622, "minutes": 11.41, "total_pass": 3.5213, "accurate_pass": 3.3937, "duels_won": 0.236, "total_long_balls": 0.4629, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4629, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2602, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2602, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.2611, 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0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023994, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3149, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1116, "combined_rank_score": 499.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 613.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.775, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 386.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.624, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Benjamin Šeško", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Arihiro Sentoku", "ranking": 1111 }, { "player_name": "Leonel González", "ranking": 1112 }, { "player_name": "Veldin Hodža", "ranking": 1113 }, { "player_name": "Breno Bidon", "ranking": 1114 }, { "player_name": "Antonio Gutemberg", "ranking": 1115 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kim Jeong Hyun", "ranking": 1117 }, { "player_name": "Jaba Jigauri", "ranking": 1118 }, { 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"contribution": -0.2809 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0139 } ], "others": -0.0248, "total": 0.2814, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.539121 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.088435 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.071664 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.045091 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.044448 } ], "others_margin": -0.084682 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.624018669128418, "model_output": 6.624, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0139, "total": 6.624, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.06075 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.021042 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017415 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014117 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011135 } ], "others_margin": -0.013682 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.880)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1262, "goals": 0.1481, "goal_rate": 0.1481, "shots_on_target": 0.4014, "total_shots": 1.0227, "expected_assists": 0.014, "key_pass": 0.2854, "rating": 6.624, "minutes": 19.94, "total_pass": 5.0172, "accurate_pass": 3.8171, "duels_won": 0.8122, "total_long_balls": 0.0263, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9677, "crosses_total": 0.1174, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.2164, "possession_lost": 2.3905, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.1923, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.4983, "won_contest": 0.2263, "ball_recovery": 1.1474, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3494, "fouls_drawn": 0.0376, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1618, "blocks": 0.0197, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1558, "xgot": 0.1738, "offsides": 0.0427, "ball_carries": 2.3972, "total_progression": 9.0296, "progressive_carries": 0.534, "shots_off_target": 0.6213 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 78000000, "quality_factor": 0.8802, "boost_factor": 1.0144, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0022)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1262, "goals": 0.1478, "goal_rate": 0.1478, "shots_on_target": 0.4005, "total_shots": 1.0217, "expected_assists": 0.014, "key_pass": 0.2854, "rating": 6.624, "minutes": 19.94, "total_pass": 5.0172, "accurate_pass": 3.8171, "duels_won": 0.8122, "total_long_balls": 0.0263, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9677, "crosses_total": 0.1184, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.2164, "possession_lost": 2.3905, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.1923, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.4983, "won_contest": 0.2263, "ball_recovery": 1.1474, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3499, "fouls_drawn": 0.0375, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1618, "blocks": 0.0197, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1558, "xgot": 0.1738, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.3972, "total_progression": 9.0296, "progressive_carries": 0.534, "shots_off_target": 0.6213 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0022, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2216, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.9 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.76)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1397, "goals": 0.1636, "goal_rate": 0.1636, "shots_on_target": 0.4433, "total_shots": 1.131, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.624, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1924, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6877, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.07, "projection_minutes": 19.94, "minutes_scale": 1.1068, "appearance_probability": 0.755 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1397, "goals": 0.1636, "goal_rate": 0.1636, "shots_on_target": 0.4433, "total_shots": 1.131, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.624, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1924, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6877, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.54 (squad xG sum 1.3815, xG scale 1.1162, xA scale 0.9721, team xA 1.23 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1559, "goal_rate": 0.1636, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4433, "total_shots": 1.131, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.624, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.2148, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6877, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.108, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.126, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.542, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3815, "squad_xa_sum": 1.269, "team_expected_assists": 1.2336, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1162, "xa_scale": 0.9721, "opponent_lambda": 1.2, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.755 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1397, "after": 0.1559 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1559, "goal_rate": 0.1636, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4433, "total_shots": 1.131, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.624, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.2148, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6877, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.108, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.126, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1116, "fifa_rank": 386.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1559, "goal_rate": 0.1636, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4433, "total_shots": 1.131, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.624, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.2148, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6877, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.108, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.109, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.126, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.109, "scorer_weight": 0.1325, "squad_weight_total": 1.6528, "weight_share": 0.0802, "finishing_factor": 1.126, "appearance_weight": 0.755, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.3982, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3982, "runner_up": "Bryan Mbeumo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.321 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1559, "goal_rate": 0.1636, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4433, "total_shots": 1.131, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.624, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.2148, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6877, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.108, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.109, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0113, "finishing_factor": 1.126, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0113, "provider_weight": 0.0091, "squad_weight_total": 1.1515, "weight_share": 0.0079, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.755, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Marcus Rashford", "weight": 0.127, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.127, "runner_up": "Matheus Cunha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.125, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bruno Fernandes" ] } ] } } ] }, "Amad Diallo": { "player_id": 971037, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 173, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0788, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0856, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7394, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 2.31, "dispossessed": 0.3352, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, 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"opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1607, "expected_assists": 0.791, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1239, "expected_assists": 0.3311, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, 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"contribution": -0.0169 } ], "others": 0.0107, "total": 6.7394, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.081969 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.02544 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.022906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.017096 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.016883 } ], "others_margin": 0.010688 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0120, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0614, "goals": 0.0717, "goal_rate": 0.0717, "shots_on_target": 0.3091, "total_shots": 0.7708, "expected_assists": 0.0767, "key_pass": 0.4886, "rating": 6.7394, "minutes": 23.26, "total_pass": 9.2626, "accurate_pass": 7.7847, "duels_won": 1.7105, "total_long_balls": 0.2849, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1424, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8233, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4878, "crosses_total": 0.1971, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.4451, "possession_lost": 2.0102, "dispossessed": 0.3352, "duels_lost": 0.608, "aerial_lost": 0.2728, "total_contest": 0.4525, "won_contest": 0.4525, "ball_recovery": 0.6748, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5578, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4153, "tackles": 0.7002, "clearances": 0.232, "blocks": 0.232, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0378, "offsides": 0.2082, "ball_carries": 5.0936, "total_progression": 28.1671, "progressive_carries": 1.207, "shots_off_target": 0.4617 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.012, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.3 to 26.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goals": 0.0824, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "shots_on_target": 0.3552, "total_shots": 0.8858, "expected_assists": 0.0881, "key_pass": 0.5615, "rating": 6.7394, "minutes": 26.73, "total_pass": 10.644, "accurate_pass": 8.9457, "duels_won": 1.9656, "total_long_balls": 0.3274, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1636, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9901, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4554, "crosses_total": 0.2265, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4503, "possession_lost": 2.31, "dispossessed": 0.3352, "duels_lost": 0.6987, "aerial_lost": 0.2728, "total_contest": 0.52, "won_contest": 0.52, "ball_recovery": 0.7754, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.641, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4772, "tackles": 0.8046, "clearances": 0.2666, "blocks": 0.2666, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0434, "offsides": 0.2082, "ball_carries": 5.8533, "total_progression": 32.3679, "progressive_carries": 1.387, "shots_off_target": 0.5306, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.624, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.73 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.73, "projection_minutes": 23.26, "minutes_scale": 1.1491, "appearance_probability": 0.624 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goals": 0.0824, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "shots_on_target": 0.3552, "total_shots": 0.8858, "expected_assists": 0.0881, "key_pass": 0.5615, "rating": 6.7394, "minutes": 26.73, "total_pass": 10.644, "accurate_pass": 8.9457, "duels_won": 1.9656, "total_long_balls": 0.3274, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1636, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9901, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4554, "crosses_total": 0.2265, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4503, "possession_lost": 2.31, "dispossessed": 0.3352, "duels_lost": 0.6987, "aerial_lost": 0.2728, "total_contest": 0.52, "won_contest": 0.52, "ball_recovery": 0.7754, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.641, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4772, "tackles": 0.8046, "clearances": 0.2666, "blocks": 0.2666, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0434, "offsides": 0.2082, "ball_carries": 5.8533, "total_progression": 32.3679, "progressive_carries": 1.387, "shots_off_target": 0.5306, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.624, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.73 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.54 (squad xG sum 1.3815, xG scale 1.1162, xA scale 0.9721, team xA 1.23 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0788, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3552, "total_shots": 0.8858, "expected_assists": 0.0856, "key_pass": 0.5615, "rating": 6.7394, "minutes": 26.73, "total_pass": 10.644, "accurate_pass": 8.9457, "duels_won": 1.9656, "total_long_balls": 0.3274, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1636, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9901, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4554, "crosses_total": 0.2265, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4503, "possession_lost": 2.31, "dispossessed": 0.3352, "duels_lost": 0.6987, "aerial_lost": 0.2728, "total_contest": 0.52, "won_contest": 0.52, "ball_recovery": 0.7754, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.641, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4772, "tackles": 0.8046, "clearances": 0.2666, "blocks": 0.2666, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0484, "offsides": 0.2082, "ball_carries": 5.8533, "total_progression": 32.3679, "progressive_carries": 1.387, "shots_off_target": 0.5306, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.624, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.73, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.108, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0978, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.542, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3815, "squad_xa_sum": 1.269, "team_expected_assists": 1.2336, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1162, "xa_scale": 0.9721, "opponent_lambda": 1.2, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.624 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0706, "after": 0.0788 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0788, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3552, "total_shots": 0.8858, "expected_assists": 0.0856, "key_pass": 0.5615, "rating": 6.7394, "minutes": 26.73, "total_pass": 10.644, "accurate_pass": 8.9457, "duels_won": 1.9656, "total_long_balls": 0.3274, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1636, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9901, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4554, "crosses_total": 0.2265, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4503, "possession_lost": 2.31, "dispossessed": 0.3352, "duels_lost": 0.6987, "aerial_lost": 0.2728, "total_contest": 0.52, "won_contest": 0.52, "ball_recovery": 0.7754, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.641, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4772, "tackles": 0.8046, "clearances": 0.2666, "blocks": 0.2666, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0484, "offsides": 0.2082, "ball_carries": 5.8533, "total_progression": 32.3679, "progressive_carries": 1.387, "shots_off_target": 0.5306, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.624, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.73, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.108, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0978, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1014, "fifa_rank": 698.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0788, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3552, "total_shots": 0.8858, "expected_assists": 0.0856, "key_pass": 0.5615, "rating": 6.7394, "minutes": 26.73, "total_pass": 10.644, "accurate_pass": 8.9457, "duels_won": 1.9656, "total_long_balls": 0.3274, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1636, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9901, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4554, "crosses_total": 0.2265, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4503, "possession_lost": 2.31, "dispossessed": 0.3352, "duels_lost": 0.6987, "aerial_lost": 0.2728, "total_contest": 0.52, "won_contest": 0.52, "ball_recovery": 0.7754, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.641, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4772, "tackles": 0.8046, "clearances": 0.2666, "blocks": 0.2666, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0484, "offsides": 0.2082, "ball_carries": 5.8533, "total_progression": 32.3679, "progressive_carries": 1.387, "shots_off_target": 0.5306, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.624, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.73, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.108, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0473, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0978, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0473, "scorer_weight": 0.054, "squad_weight_total": 1.6528, "weight_share": 0.0327, "finishing_factor": 1.0978, "appearance_weight": 0.624, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.3982, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3982, "runner_up": "Bryan Mbeumo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.321 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0788, "goal_rate": 0.0824, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3552, "total_shots": 0.8858, "expected_assists": 0.0856, "key_pass": 0.5615, "rating": 6.7394, "minutes": 26.73, "total_pass": 10.644, "accurate_pass": 8.9457, "duels_won": 1.9656, "total_long_balls": 0.3274, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1636, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9901, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4554, "crosses_total": 0.2265, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4503, "possession_lost": 2.31, "dispossessed": 0.3352, "duels_lost": 0.6987, "aerial_lost": 0.2728, "total_contest": 0.52, "won_contest": 0.52, "ball_recovery": 0.7754, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.641, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4772, "tackles": 0.8046, "clearances": 0.2666, "blocks": 0.2666, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0484, "offsides": 0.2082, "ball_carries": 5.8533, "total_progression": 32.3679, "progressive_carries": 1.387, "shots_off_target": 0.5306, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.624, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.73, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.108, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0473, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0512, "finishing_factor": 1.0978, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0512, "provider_weight": 0.0427, "squad_weight_total": 1.1515, "weight_share": 0.0371, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.624, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Marcus Rashford", "weight": 0.127, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.127, "runner_up": "Matheus Cunha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.125, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bruno Fernandes" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Benjamin Šeško": { "player_id": 986397, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 195, "market_value": 78000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1559, "goal_rate": 0.1636, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.624, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2148, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.108, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.109, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0113, "finishing_factor": 1.126, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0592, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363259, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.287, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363634, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0357, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023939, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2471, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023926, "match_date": "2026-04-27", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4365, "expected_assists": 0.0276, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025032, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0304, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025024, "match_date": "2026-04-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3139, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 10, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 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"rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1088, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0925, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-27", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-20", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.2691, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 4.8711, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 3.3735, "accuratePass": 5.6189, "totalShots": 1.5366 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.12437212467193604, "model_output": 0.1244, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0939 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0068 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.005 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0044 } ], "others": 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"items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5814 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0778 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0532 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0356 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0326 } ], "others": 0.0116, "total": 1.0081, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.581359 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.077796 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.053208 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.035553 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.032618 } ], "others_margin": 0.011607 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.013813159428536892, "model_output": 0.0138, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0054 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0022 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0018 } ], "others": -0.0081, "total": 0.0138, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.412845 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.309101 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.188413 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.087467 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.078116 } ], "others_margin": -0.461735 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.28139376640319824, "model_output": 0.2814, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2809 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0139 } ], "others": -0.0248, "total": 0.2814, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.539121 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.088435 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.071664 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.045091 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.044448 } ], "others_margin": -0.084682 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.624018669128418, "model_output": 6.624, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0139, "total": 6.624, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.06075 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.021042 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017415 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014117 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011135 } ], "others_margin": -0.013682 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.880)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1262, "goals": 0.1481, "goal_rate": 0.1481, "shots_on_target": 0.4014, "total_shots": 1.0227, "expected_assists": 0.014, "key_pass": 0.2854, "rating": 6.624, "minutes": 19.94, "total_pass": 5.0172, "accurate_pass": 3.8171, "duels_won": 0.8122, "total_long_balls": 0.0263, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9677, "crosses_total": 0.1174, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.2164, "possession_lost": 2.3905, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.1923, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.4983, "won_contest": 0.2263, "ball_recovery": 1.1474, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3494, "fouls_drawn": 0.0376, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1618, "blocks": 0.0197, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1558, "xgot": 0.1738, "offsides": 0.0427, "ball_carries": 2.3972, "total_progression": 9.0296, "progressive_carries": 0.534, "shots_off_target": 0.6213 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 78000000, "quality_factor": 0.8802, "boost_factor": 1.0144, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0022)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1262, "goals": 0.1478, "goal_rate": 0.1478, "shots_on_target": 0.4005, "total_shots": 1.0217, "expected_assists": 0.014, "key_pass": 0.2854, "rating": 6.624, "minutes": 19.94, "total_pass": 5.0172, "accurate_pass": 3.8171, "duels_won": 0.8122, "total_long_balls": 0.0263, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9677, "crosses_total": 0.1184, 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"season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023978, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0131, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 75, "accurate_pass": 70, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2687, "combined_rank_score": 939.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 757.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6567, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 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"wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 34, "data_confidence": 0.752, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 16.12, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.632, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0117, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Manchester Utd", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 17.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (34 historical appearances) to 16.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.63); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 17.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3903, "tackles": 0.6036, "tackles_won": 0.3644, "clearances": 0.9574, "aerial_won": 0.4435, 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"totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7765 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0266 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0205 } ], "others": -0.0104, "total": 0.6036, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.814411 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.044066 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.037286 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.034085 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.032861 } ], "others_margin": -0.016964 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.364399790763855, "model_output": 0.3644, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4446 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0108, "total": 0.3644, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.734812 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.04434 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.043363 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.02972 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.029164 } ], "others_margin": -0.029019 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.9574339389801025, "model_output": 0.9574, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.2374 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1911 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1194 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0342 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0311 } ], "others": 0.057, "total": 0.9574, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.044855 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.171312 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.124125 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.038563 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.035193 } ], "others_margin": 0.06138 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.4435212314128876, "model_output": 0.4435, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8245 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1292 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0311 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0256 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0212 } ], "others": -0.0005, "total": 0.4435, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.907749 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.263551 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.075328 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.062485 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.048839 } ], "others_margin": -0.00126 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.22000056505203247, "model_output": 0.22, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1876 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.066 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0388 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0117, "total": 0.22, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.187639 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.066021 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.038837 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.013111 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011532 } ], "others_margin": -0.011665 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.636218070983887, "model_output": 6.6362, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0407, "total": 6.6362, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.031017 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.026065 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022528 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.014417 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.014213 } ], "others_margin": -0.040674 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0117, quality 0.809)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3949, "tackles": 0.6107, "tackles_won": 0.3687, "clearances": 0.9686, "aerial_won": 0.4487, "total_shots": 0.2226, "rating": 6.6362, "minutes": 16.12, "total_pass": 8.9505, "accurate_pass": 7.851, "duels_won": 0.9338, "total_long_balls": 0.6296, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2952, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2118, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8891, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7387, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9619, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4391, "possession_lost": 1.5658, "dispossessed": 0.1837, "duels_lost": 0.9765, "aerial_lost": 0.2877, "total_contest": 0.186, "won_contest": 0.0323, "ball_recovery": 0.4812, "challenges_lost": 0.0613, "fouls": 0.2901, "fouls_drawn": 0.0323, "blocks": 0.3041, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0108, quality 0.821)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.867, "tackles": 1.1505, "tackles_won": 0.7529, "clearances": 4.1235, "aerial_won": 1.9578, "total_shots": 0.5282, "rating": 6.8304, "minutes": 87.86, "total_pass": 63.2299, "accurate_pass": 59.6975, "duels_won": 4.5053, "total_long_balls": 2.3606, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3256, "total_own_half_passes": 42.1155, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.5545, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.1144, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.143, "crosses_total": 0.0415, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 73.8404, "possession_lost": 4.3128, "dispossessed": 0.3244, "duels_lost": 2.8008, "aerial_lost": 1.2912, "total_contest": 0.185, "won_contest": 0.1812, "ball_recovery": 3.9689, "challenges_lost": 0.3663, "fouls": 0.8746, "fouls_drawn": 1.35, "blocks": 0.607, "goals": 0.0164, 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"margin": 0.255759 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.096089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.089078 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.088215 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.047743 } ], "others_margin": -0.36397 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6176661849021912, "model_output": 0.6177, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2164 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0537 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0411 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.033 }, { "name": 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"expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.093, "total": 6.6434, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.045934 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022813 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.021676 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014182 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.012988 } ], "others_margin": -0.093063 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0132, quality 0.725)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2206, "goals": 0.2101, "goal_rate": 0.2101, "shots_on_target": 0.6071, "total_shots": 1.7609, "expected_assists": 0.0424, "key_pass": 0.6258, "rating": 6.6434, "minutes": 75.31, "total_pass": 13.3479, "accurate_pass": 10.7989, "duels_won": 4.375, "total_long_balls": 0.1549, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0587, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6242, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5039, "crosses_total": 0.076, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.8532, "possession_lost": 7.7039, "dispossessed": 1.4298, "duels_lost": 6.0232, "aerial_lost": 2.5592, "total_contest": 1.4932, "won_contest": 0.7079, "ball_recovery": 3.0824, "challenges_lost": 0.2735, "fouls": 1.0406, "fouls_drawn": 0.5893, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0653, "tackles_won": 0.8417, "tackles": 1.4138, "clearances": 0.6901, "blocks": 0.1901, "big_chances_created": 0.1062, "big_chances_missed": 0.2026, "xgot": 0.2269, "offsides": 0.2148, "ball_carries": 7.5331, "total_progression": 18.7055, "progressive_carries": 1.2163, "shots_off_target": 1.1538 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.0132, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 20, "history_shrink": 0.2, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0035)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2206, "goals": 0.2094, "goal_rate": 0.2094, "shots_on_target": 0.6117, "total_shots": 1.7682, "expected_assists": 0.0424, "key_pass": 0.6258, "rating": 6.6434, "minutes": 75.31, "total_pass": 13.3479, "accurate_pass": 10.7989, "duels_won": 4.375, "total_long_balls": 0.1549, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0587, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6242, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5039, "crosses_total": 0.0757, 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0438 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0299 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0275 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0254 } ], "others": -0.0224, "total": 0.8053, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.293066 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.049726 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.035365 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.033685 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.03112 } ], "others_margin": -0.02739 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.702614784240723, "model_output": 6.7026, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], 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"margin": 0.094467 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.026499 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.019832 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.018262 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.017666 } ], "others_margin": -0.045927 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0103, quality 0.821)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0035, "expected_assists": 0.1063, "assists": 0.0908, "assist_rate": 0.0908, "expected_goals": 0.0751, "goals": 0.1023, "goal_rate": 0.1023, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 1.1278, "rating": 6.9035, "minutes": 79.72, "total_pass": 47.5807, "accurate_pass": 42.6195, "duels_won": 4.5955, "total_long_balls": 5.3535, "accurate_long_balls": 3.455, "total_own_half_passes": 18.4338, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0618, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.1469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.5578, "crosses_total": 1.745, "crosses_accurate": 0.2949, "touches": 62.1125, "possession_lost": 8.8329, "dispossessed": 0.5323, "duels_lost": 4.0277, "aerial_won": 0.4711, "aerial_lost": 0.5258, "interceptions": 0.8553, "tackles_won": 1.7511, "tackles": 2.7226, "clearances": 0.654, "total_contest": 1.08, "won_contest": 0.468, "challenges_lost": 0.6958, "fouls": 1.7216, "fouls_drawn": 0.9338, "blocks": 0.144, "big_chances_created": 0.1659, "big_chances_missed": 0.0676, "xgot": 0.0508, "ball_carries": 15.8279, "total_progression": 61.5172, "progressive_carries": 1.4348, "shots_off_target": 0.7913 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 49000000, "quality_factor": 0.8206, "boost_factor": 1.0103, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0071)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0035, "expected_assists": 0.1063, "assists": 0.0902, "assist_rate": 0.0902, "expected_goals": 0.0751, "goals": 0.1016, "goal_rate": 0.1016, "shots_on_target": 0.3341, "total_shots": 1.124, "rating": 6.9035, "minutes": 79.72, "total_pass": 47.5807, "accurate_pass": 42.6195, "duels_won": 4.5955, "total_long_balls": 5.3535, "accurate_long_balls": 3.455, "total_own_half_passes": 18.4338, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0618, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.1469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.5578, "crosses_total": 1.7619, "crosses_accurate": 0.2949, "touches": 62.1125, "possession_lost": 8.8329, "dispossessed": 0.5323, "duels_lost": 4.0277, "aerial_won": 0.4711, "aerial_lost": 0.5258, "interceptions": 0.8493, "tackles_won": 1.7471, "tackles": 2.7226, "clearances": 0.654, "total_contest": 1.08, "won_contest": 0.468, "challenges_lost": 0.6958, "fouls": 1.7261, "fouls_drawn": 0.9272, "blocks": 0.144, "big_chances_created": 0.1659, "big_chances_missed": 0.0676, "xgot": 0.0508, "ball_carries": 15.8279, "total_progression": 61.5172, "progressive_carries": 1.4348, "shots_off_target": 0.7913 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0071, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8858, "prior_reliability": 0.1, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Tottenham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.745, "after": 1.7619 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.9338, "after": 0.9272 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.8553, "after": 0.8493 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0035, "expected_assists": 0.1063, "assists": 0.0902, "assist_rate": 0.0902, "expected_goals": 0.0751, "goals": 0.1016, "goal_rate": 0.1016, "shots_on_target": 0.3341, "total_shots": 1.1254, "rating": 6.9035, "minutes": 79.72, "total_pass": 47.5807, "accurate_pass": 42.6195, "duels_won": 4.5955, "total_long_balls": 5.3535, "accurate_long_balls": 3.455, "total_own_half_passes": 18.4338, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0618, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.1469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.5578, "crosses_total": 1.7619, "crosses_accurate": 0.2949, "touches": 62.1125, "possession_lost": 8.8329, "dispossessed": 0.5323, "duels_lost": 4.0277, "aerial_won": 0.4711, "aerial_lost": 0.5258, "interceptions": 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"accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0618, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.1469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.5578, "crosses_total": 1.7619, "crosses_accurate": 0.2949, "touches": 62.1125, "possession_lost": 8.8329, "dispossessed": 0.5323, "duels_lost": 4.0277, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5258, "interceptions": 0.8493, "tackles_won": 1.7471, "tackles": 2.7226, "clearances": 0.654, "total_contest": 1.08, "won_contest": 0.468, "challenges_lost": 0.6958, "fouls": 1.7261, "fouls_drawn": 0.9272, "blocks": 0.144, "big_chances_created": 0.1659, "big_chances_missed": 0.0635, "xgot": 0.0477, "ball_carries": 15.8279, "total_progression": 61.5172, "progressive_carries": 1.4348, "shots_off_target": 0.7431, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9391, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.379, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Kobbie Mainoo", "opponent_faced": "Kobbie 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"description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 1.3040, xG scale 0.9203, xA scale 0.9248, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0035, "expected_assists": 0.0983, "assist_rate": 0.0902, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0649, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3138, "total_shots": 1.0569, "rating": 6.9035, "minutes": 79.72, "total_pass": 47.5807, "accurate_pass": 42.6195, "duels_won": 4.5955, "total_long_balls": 5.3535, "accurate_long_balls": 3.455, "total_own_half_passes": 18.4338, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0618, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.1469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.5578, "crosses_total": 1.7619, "crosses_accurate": 0.2949, "touches": 62.1125, "possession_lost": 8.8329, "dispossessed": 0.5323, "duels_lost": 4.0277, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5258, "interceptions": 0.8493, "tackles_won": 1.7471, "tackles": 2.7226, "clearances": 0.654, "total_contest": 1.08, 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0.9203, "xa_scale": 0.9248, "opponent_lambda": 1.542, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0705, "after": 0.0649 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1063, "after": 0.0983 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0035, "expected_assists": 0.0983, "assist_rate": 0.0902, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0649, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3138, "total_shots": 1.0569, "rating": 6.9035, "minutes": 79.72, "total_pass": 47.5807, "accurate_pass": 42.6195, "duels_won": 4.5955, "total_long_balls": 5.3535, "accurate_long_balls": 3.455, "total_own_half_passes": 18.4338, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0618, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.1469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.5578, "crosses_total": 1.7619, "crosses_accurate": 0.2949, 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1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.926579 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.143188 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.110341 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.090579 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.067472 } ], "others_margin": -0.213306 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.21732355654239655, "model_output": 0.2173, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7903 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2009 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0316 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0273 }, { "name": 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"contribution": 0.0227 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0499, "total": 0.3408, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.32347 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.25747 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.022735 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.022561 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.014455 } ], "others_margin": -0.050089 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.785494804382324, "model_output": 6.7855, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0266 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0237 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0187 } ], "others": -0.0164, "total": 6.7855, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.026597 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.02375 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.020036 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.018994 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.018741 } ], "others_margin": -0.016573 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alejandro Santander", "ranking": 326 }, { "player_name": "Diego Murillo", "ranking": 327 }, { "player_name": "Boubacar Kamara", "ranking": 328 }, { "player_name": "Min-woo Kim", "ranking": 329 }, { "player_name": "Juan Berrocal", "ranking": 330 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Cristian Romero", "ranking": 332 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Iturbe", "ranking": 333 }, { "player_name": "Oyarzabal", "ranking": 334 }, { "player_name": "Manuel Akanji", "ranking": 335 }, { "player_name": "Phil Foden", "ranking": 336 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", 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0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4146 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0212 } ], "others": 0.0155, "total": 0.5471, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.664154 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.05822 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.049018 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.041516 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.040674 } ], "others_margin": 0.02895 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.8396453857421875, "model_output": 1.8396, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": 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"aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8589 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1883 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0631 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0619 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0372 } ], "others": 0.0814, "total": 0.8806, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.971552 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.307474 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.084956 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.076849 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.045522 } ], "others_margin": 0.097111 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.20179006457328796, "model_output": 0.2018, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2069 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.082 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0457 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0354 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.021 } ], "others": -0.0405, "total": 0.2018, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.206937 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.081992 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.045723 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.035444 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.020951 } ], "others_margin": -0.040628 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.043562889099121, "model_output": 7.0436, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1081 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0724 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0685 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0359 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0358 } ], "others": 0.154, "total": 7.0436, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.108113 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.072369 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.068463 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.035918 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.035796 } ], "others_margin": 0.153997 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0054, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6594, "tackles": 0.7458, "tackles_won": 0.55, "clearances": 1.8496, "aerial_won": 0.8854, "total_shots": 0.2029, "rating": 7.0436, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 70.0997, "accurate_pass": 56.4465, "duels_won": 6.497, "total_long_balls": 11.8643, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7295, "total_own_half_passes": 36.5272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.2091, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.5725, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.2374, "crosses_total": 0.4524, "crosses_accurate": 0.0801, "touches": 86.9455, "possession_lost": 15.4142, "dispossessed": 0.3061, "duels_lost": 5.6357, "aerial_lost": 3.3422, "total_contest": 0.4187, "won_contest": 0.2779, "ball_recovery": 3.8824, "challenges_lost": 0.8228, "fouls": 1.0259, "fouls_drawn": 1.4081, "blocks": 1.3847, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0787, "assist_rate": 0.0787, "expected_goals": 0.0255, "expected_assists": 0.0647, "shots_on_target": 0.0468, "big_chances_created": 0.1006, "xgot": 0.0029, "ball_carries": 27.011, "total_progression": 119.8021, "progressive_carries": 1.2135, "key_pass": 0.3181, "shots_off_target": 0.1561 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0054, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0050)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6581, "tackles": 0.7458, "tackles_won": 0.5513, "clearances": 1.8496, "aerial_won": 0.8854, "total_shots": 0.2019, "rating": 7.0436, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 70.0997, "accurate_pass": 56.4465, "duels_won": 6.497, "total_long_balls": 11.8643, "accurate_long_balls": 4.7295, "total_own_half_passes": 36.5272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.2091, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.5725, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.2374, "crosses_total": 0.4501, "crosses_accurate": 0.0801, "touches": 86.9455, "possession_lost": 15.4142, "dispossessed": 0.3061, "duels_lost": 5.6357, "aerial_lost": 3.3422, "total_contest": 0.4187, "won_contest": 0.2779, "ball_recovery": 3.8824, "challenges_lost": 0.8228, "fouls": 1.0227, "fouls_drawn": 1.404, "blocks": 1.3847, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0783, "assist_rate": 0.0783, "expected_goals": 0.0255, "expected_assists": 0.0647, "shots_on_target": 0.0466, "big_chances_created": 0.1006, "xgot": 0.0029, "ball_carries": 27.011, "total_progression": 119.8021, "progressive_carries": 1.2135, "key_pass": 0.3181, "shots_off_target": 0.1561 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.005, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Tottenham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench 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"shots_on_target": 0.0374, "big_chances_created": 0.0808, "xgot": 0.0023, "ball_carries": 21.6863, "total_progression": 96.1855, "progressive_carries": 0.9743, "key_pass": 0.2554, "shots_off_target": 0.1253, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.235, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.45, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 0.8029, "appearance_probability": 0.235 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5284, "tackles": 0.5988, "tackles_won": 0.4426, "clearances": 1.485, "aerial_won": 0.7109, "total_shots": 0.1627, "rating": 7.0436, "minutes": 14.45, "total_pass": 56.281, "accurate_pass": 45.3192, "duels_won": 5.2162, "total_long_balls": 9.5255, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7972, "total_own_half_passes": 29.3266, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8597, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.9544, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.4595, "crosses_total": 0.3614, 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"total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024012, "match_date": "2026-02-22", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0586, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": 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"name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3554 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1715 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0357 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0256 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0237 } ], "others": 0.0036, "total": 0.3822, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.355391 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.171514 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.035656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.025579 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.023704 } ], "others_margin": 0.003548 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.696290969848633, "model_output": 6.6963, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0729 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.032 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0274 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0065 } ], "others": -0.0184, "total": 6.6963, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.072921 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.032034 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.027418 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.006544 } ], "others_margin": -0.018377 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0120, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4499, "expected_assists": 0.038, "assists": 0.0597, "assist_rate": 0.0597, "expected_goals": 0.0201, "goals": 0.025, "goal_rate": 0.025, "shots_on_target": 0.1181, "total_shots": 0.3868, "rating": 6.6963, "minutes": 22.51, "total_pass": 11.8255, "accurate_pass": 9.1144, "duels_won": 1.4399, "total_long_balls": 1.2458, "accurate_long_balls": 0.449, "total_own_half_passes": 5.0868, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3829, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7387, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7315, "crosses_total": 0.69, "crosses_accurate": 0.2333, "touches": 18.8312, "possession_lost": 5.0415, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 2.236, "aerial_won": 0.2158, "aerial_lost": 0.3176, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3175, "tackles": 0.4547, "clearances": 0.3498, 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"Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4667, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "assists": 0.0619, "assist_rate": 0.0619, "expected_goals": 0.0209, "goals": 0.0259, "goal_rate": 0.0259, "shots_on_target": 0.1225, "total_shots": 0.4013, "rating": 6.6963, "minutes": 23.35, "total_pass": 12.268, "accurate_pass": 9.4555, "duels_won": 1.4938, "total_long_balls": 1.2924, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4658, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2772, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.5095, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9909, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.946, "crosses_total": 0.7158, "crosses_accurate": 0.242, "touches": 19.5359, "possession_lost": 5.2302, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_won": 0.2239, "aerial_lost": 0.3176, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3294, "tackles": 0.4717, "clearances": 0.3629, "total_contest": 1.4315, "won_contest": 0.5664, "challenges_lost": 0.2333, "fouls": 0.5304, "fouls_drawn": 0.2318, "blocks": 0.0, 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0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.288 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0568 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0526 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0282 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.024 } ], "others": -0.0697, "total": 0.2599, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.557519 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.159275 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.148273 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.07688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.070404 } ], "others_margin": -0.237127 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.603003978729248, "model_output": 6.603, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0521 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0146 } ], "others": -0.0763, "total": 6.603, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.052142 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.018324 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.017528 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.017042 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.014638 } ], "others_margin": 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"expected_goals": 0.5256, "expected_assists": 0.0559, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 7, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023927, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5015, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024022, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 50, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0797, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025026, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1352, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024020, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0969, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023992, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9261, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023981, "match_date": "2026-03-05", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2109, "combined_rank_score": 800.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 509.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8531, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 1091.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6565, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Richarlison", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Chris Long", "ranking": 2104 }, { "player_name": "Richard Ríos", "ranking": 2105 }, { "player_name": "Abdel Rahim", "ranking": 2106 }, { "player_name": "Matthew Sheridan", "ranking": 2107 }, { "player_name": "Lewis Miley", "ranking": 2108 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Antonio Díaz", "ranking": 2110 }, { "player_name": "Cristian Palacios", "ranking": 2111 }, { "player_name": "Han-gil Kim", "ranking": 2112 }, { "player_name": "Sardor Abduraimov", "ranking": 2113 }, { "player_name": "Alou Kuol", "ranking": 2114 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.757, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", 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50.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.26, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 7.7612, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 4.6045, "accuratePass": 7.1748, "totalShots": 2.0087 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.14887811243534088, "model_output": 0.1489, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0881 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0047 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0038 } ], "others": 0.0225, "total": 0.1489, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.584533 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.101957 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.040813 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.038744 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.030187 } ], "others_margin": 0.164509 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.25402942299842834, "model_output": 0.254, "scale": "count 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{ "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.038751 } ], "others_margin": 0.190102 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0466612577438354, "model_output": 1.0467, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.574 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1289 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0378 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.028 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0275 } ], "others": 0.0198, "total": 1.0467, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.573997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.128913 }, { "name": 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[ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.326336 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.149017 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.082653 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.07744 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.057546 } ], "others_margin": -0.353855 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.29829439520835876, "model_output": 0.2983, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2493 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0343 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0277 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": 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"dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": -0.039, "total": 6.6565, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.045816 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.018082 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.016619 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011358 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011024 } ], "others_margin": -0.03892 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.024 } ], "others": -0.0697, "total": 0.2599, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.557519 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.159275 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.148273 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.07688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.070404 } ], "others_margin": -0.237127 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.603003978729248, "model_output": 6.603, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0521 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0146 } ], "others": -0.0763, "total": 6.603, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.052142 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.018324 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.017528 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.017042 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.014638 } ], "others_margin": -0.076132 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0715, quality 0.791)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0997, "goals": 0.1126, "goal_rate": 0.1126, "shots_on_target": 0.3105, "total_shots": 0.6693, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.2785, "rating": 6.603, "minutes": 18.67, "total_pass": 2.143, "accurate_pass": 1.0715, "duels_won": 1.0715, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.143, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0715, "crosses_total": 1.0715, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.286, "possession_lost": 2.143, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0715, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0715, "fouls_drawn": 1.0715, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, 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"expected_assists": 0.0239, "key_pass": 0.3982, "rating": 6.603, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.5128, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 1.3040, xG scale 0.9203, xA scale 0.9248, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1311, "goal_rate": 0.161, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4439, "total_shots": 0.9569, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "key_pass": 0.3982, "rating": 6.603, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.5128, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.345, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0961, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.2, "squad_xg_sum": 1.304, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8434, "team_expected_assists": 0.78, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9203, "xa_scale": 0.9248, "opponent_lambda": 1.542, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.622 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1425, "after": 0.1311 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1311, "goal_rate": 0.161, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4439, "total_shots": 0.9569, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "key_pass": 0.3982, "rating": 6.603, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.5128, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.345, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0961, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3166, "fifa_rank": 2206.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1311, "goal_rate": 0.161, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4439, "total_shots": 0.9569, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "key_pass": 0.3982, "rating": 6.603, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 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"finishing_factor": 1.0961, "appearance_weight": 0.622, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1311, "goal_rate": 0.161, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4439, "total_shots": 0.9569, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "key_pass": 0.3982, "rating": 6.603, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 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-0.644291 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.269592 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.106417 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.046611 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.031696 } ], "others_margin": 0.074954 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2513299882411957, "model_output": 0.2513, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1629 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0479 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0045, "total": 0.2513, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.698582 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.260457 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.098323 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.068532 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.034918 } ], "others_margin": -0.017598 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7718992233276367, "model_output": 0.7719, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3341 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0374 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0179 } ], "others": -0.012, "total": 0.7719, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.604777 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.334109 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.044572 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.037408 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.017854 } ], "others_margin": -0.012023 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.783885478973389, "model_output": 6.7839, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1105 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0154 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": 0.0118, "total": 6.7839, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.110527 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.015354 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.014403 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.013309 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009439 } ], "others_margin": 0.011913 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0132, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7726, "expected_assists": 0.0869, "assists": 0.1137, "assist_rate": 0.1137, "expected_goals": 0.0784, "goals": 0.0828, "goal_rate": 0.0828, "shots_on_target": 0.2546, "total_shots": 0.7821, "rating": 6.7839, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 13.7166, "accurate_pass": 11.0488, "duels_won": 3.212, "total_long_balls": 0.7448, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4143, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5714, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4774, "crosses_total": 0.6481, "crosses_accurate": 0.1215, "touches": 22.3487, "possession_lost": 5.2319, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.9831, "aerial_won": 0.4817, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2896, "tackles_won": 0.606, "tackles": 0.8542, "clearances": 0.2063, "total_contest": 1.3411, "won_contest": 0.8439, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2809, "fouls_drawn": 1.0322, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.09, "ball_carries": 5.8059, "total_progression": 18.0009, "progressive_carries": 1.1494, "shots_off_target": 0.5275 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 43000000, "quality_factor": 0.7957, "boost_factor": 1.0132, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.4 to 23.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7129, "expected_assists": 0.0802, "assists": 0.1049, "assist_rate": 0.1049, "expected_goals": 0.0723, "goals": 0.0764, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "shots_on_target": 0.2349, "total_shots": 0.7217, "rating": 6.7839, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.083, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.4867, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.39, "projection_minutes": 25.35, "minutes_scale": 0.9227, "appearance_probability": 0.563 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7129, "expected_assists": 0.0802, "assists": 0.1049, "assist_rate": 0.1049, "expected_goals": 0.0723, "goals": 0.0764, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "shots_on_target": 0.2349, "total_shots": 0.7217, "rating": 6.7839, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.083, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.4867, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 1.3040, xG scale 0.9203, xA scale 0.9248, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7129, "expected_assists": 0.0742, "assist_rate": 0.1049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2349, "total_shots": 0.7217, "rating": 6.7839, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0764, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.4867, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.345, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0335, "creation_factor": 1.1897 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.2, "squad_xg_sum": 1.304, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8434, "team_expected_assists": 0.78, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9203, "xa_scale": 0.9248, "opponent_lambda": 1.542, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.563 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0723, "after": 0.0665 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0802, "after": 0.0742 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7129, "expected_assists": 0.0742, "assist_rate": 0.1049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2349, "total_shots": 0.7217, "rating": 6.7839, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0764, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.4867, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.345, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0335, "creation_factor": 1.1897, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 654, "fifa_rank": 513.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7129, "expected_assists": 0.0742, "assist_rate": 0.1049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2349, "total_shots": 0.7217, "rating": 6.7839, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0764, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.4867, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.345, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0362, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0335, "creation_factor": 1.1897, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0362, "scorer_weight": 0.0387, "squad_weight_total": 1.2308, "weight_share": 0.0314, "finishing_factor": 1.0335, "appearance_weight": 0.563, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7129, "expected_assists": 0.0742, "assist_rate": 0.1049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2349, "total_shots": 0.7217, "rating": 6.7839, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0764, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.4867, 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1381 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0073 } ], "others": -0.0016, "total": 0.1167, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.55545 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.248572 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.171709 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.095294 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.063813 } ], "others_margin": -0.014197 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3821682631969452, "model_output": 0.3822, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3554 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1715 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0357 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0256 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0237 } ], "others": 0.0036, "total": 0.3822, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.355391 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.171514 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.035656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.025579 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.023704 } ], "others_margin": 0.003548 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.696290969848633, "model_output": 6.6963, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0729 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.032 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0274 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0065 } ], "others": -0.0184, "total": 6.6963, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.072921 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.032034 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.027418 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.006544 } ], "others_margin": -0.018377 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0120, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4499, "expected_assists": 0.038, "assists": 0.0597, "assist_rate": 0.0597, "expected_goals": 0.0201, "goals": 0.025, "goal_rate": 0.025, "shots_on_target": 0.1181, "total_shots": 0.3868, "rating": 6.6963, "minutes": 22.51, "total_pass": 11.8255, "accurate_pass": 9.1144, "duels_won": 1.4399, "total_long_balls": 1.2458, "accurate_long_balls": 0.449, "total_own_half_passes": 5.0868, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3829, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7387, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7315, "crosses_total": 0.69, "crosses_accurate": 0.2333, "touches": 18.8312, "possession_lost": 5.0415, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 2.236, "aerial_won": 0.2158, "aerial_lost": 0.3176, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3175, "tackles": 0.4547, "clearances": 0.3498, "total_contest": 1.3799, "won_contest": 0.546, "challenges_lost": 0.2333, "fouls": 0.5113, "fouls_drawn": 0.2234, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1272, "xgot": 0.0278, "ball_carries": 6.2746, "total_progression": 26.1893, "progressive_carries": 0.6865, "shots_off_target": 0.2687 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.012, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.5 to 23.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4667, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "assists": 0.0619, "assist_rate": 0.0619, "expected_goals": 0.0209, "goals": 0.0259, "goal_rate": 0.0259, "shots_on_target": 0.1225, "total_shots": 0.4013, "rating": 6.6963, "minutes": 23.35, "total_pass": 12.268, "accurate_pass": 9.4555, "duels_won": 1.4938, "total_long_balls": 1.2924, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4658, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2772, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.5095, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9909, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.946, "crosses_total": 0.7158, "crosses_accurate": 0.242, "touches": 19.5359, "possession_lost": 5.2302, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_won": 0.2239, "aerial_lost": 0.3176, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3294, "tackles": 0.4717, "clearances": 0.3629, "total_contest": 1.4315, "won_contest": 0.5664, "challenges_lost": 0.2333, "fouls": 0.5304, "fouls_drawn": 0.2318, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.132, "xgot": 0.0288, "ball_carries": 6.5094, "total_progression": 27.1693, "progressive_carries": 0.7122, "shots_off_target": 0.2788, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.35 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.35, "projection_minutes": 22.51, "minutes_scale": 1.0374, "appearance_probability": 0.561 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4667, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "assists": 0.0619, "assist_rate": 0.0619, "expected_goals": 0.0209, "goals": 0.0259, "goal_rate": 0.0259, "shots_on_target": 0.1225, "total_shots": 0.4013, "rating": 6.6963, "minutes": 23.35, "total_pass": 12.268, "accurate_pass": 9.4555, "duels_won": 1.4938, "total_long_balls": 1.2924, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4658, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2772, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.5095, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9909, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.946, "crosses_total": 0.7158, "crosses_accurate": 0.242, "touches": 19.5359, "possession_lost": 5.2302, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_won": 0.2239, "aerial_lost": 0.3176, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3294, "tackles": 0.4717, "clearances": 0.3629, "total_contest": 1.4315, "won_contest": 0.5664, "challenges_lost": 0.2333, "fouls": 0.5304, "fouls_drawn": 0.2318, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.132, "xgot": 0.0288, "ball_carries": 6.5094, "total_progression": 27.1693, "progressive_carries": 0.7122, "shots_off_target": 0.2788, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.35 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.20 (squad xG sum 1.3040, xG scale 0.9203, xA scale 0.9248, team xA 0.78 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4667, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "assist_rate": 0.0619, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0192, "goal_rate": 0.0259, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1225, "total_shots": 0.4013, "rating": 6.6963, "minutes": 23.35, "total_pass": 12.268, "accurate_pass": 9.4555, "duels_won": 1.4938, "total_long_balls": 1.2924, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4658, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2772, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.5095, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9909, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.946, "crosses_total": 0.7158, "crosses_accurate": 0.242, "touches": 19.5359, "possession_lost": 5.2302, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_won": 0.2239, "aerial_lost": 0.3176, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3294, "tackles": 0.4717, "clearances": 0.3629, "total_contest": 1.4315, "won_contest": 0.5664, "challenges_lost": 0.2333, "fouls": 0.5304, "fouls_drawn": 0.2318, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.132, "xgot": 0.0265, "ball_carries": 6.5094, "total_progression": 27.1693, "progressive_carries": 0.7122, "shots_off_target": 0.2788, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.35, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.345, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0705, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.2, "squad_xg_sum": 1.304, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8434, "team_expected_assists": 0.78, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9203, "xa_scale": 0.9248, "opponent_lambda": 1.542, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.561 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4667, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "assist_rate": 0.0619, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0192, "goal_rate": 0.0259, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1225, "total_shots": 0.4013, "rating": 6.6963, "minutes": 23.35, "total_pass": 12.268, "accurate_pass": 9.4555, "duels_won": 1.4938, "total_long_balls": 1.2924, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4658, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2772, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.5095, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9909, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.946, "crosses_total": 0.7158, "crosses_accurate": 0.242, "touches": 19.5359, "possession_lost": 5.2302, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_won": 0.2239, "aerial_lost": 0.3176, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3294, "tackles": 0.4717, "clearances": 0.3629, "total_contest": 1.4315, "won_contest": 0.5664, "challenges_lost": 0.2333, "fouls": 0.5304, "fouls_drawn": 0.2318, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.132, "xgot": 0.0265, "ball_carries": 6.5094, "total_progression": 27.1693, "progressive_carries": 0.7122, "shots_off_target": 0.2788, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.35, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.345, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0705, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1969, "fifa_rank": 686.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4667, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "assist_rate": 0.0619, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0192, "goal_rate": 0.0259, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1225, "total_shots": 0.4013, "rating": 6.6963, "minutes": 23.35, "total_pass": 12.268, "accurate_pass": 9.4555, "duels_won": 1.4938, "total_long_balls": 1.2924, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4658, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2772, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.5095, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9909, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.946, "crosses_total": 0.7158, "crosses_accurate": 0.242, "touches": 19.5359, "possession_lost": 5.2302, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_won": 0.2239, "aerial_lost": 0.3176, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3294, "tackles": 0.4717, "clearances": 0.3629, "total_contest": 1.4315, "won_contest": 0.5664, "challenges_lost": 0.2333, "fouls": 0.5304, "fouls_drawn": 0.2318, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.132, "xgot": 0.0265, "ball_carries": 6.5094, "total_progression": 27.1693, "progressive_carries": 0.7122, "shots_off_target": 0.2788, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.35, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.345, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0107, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0705, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0107, "scorer_weight": 0.0115, "squad_weight_total": 1.2308, "weight_share": 0.0094, "finishing_factor": 1.0705, "appearance_weight": 0.561, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4667, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "assist_rate": 0.0619, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0192, "goal_rate": 0.0259, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1225, "total_shots": 0.4013, "rating": 6.6963, "minutes": 23.35, "total_pass": 12.268, "accurate_pass": 9.4555, "duels_won": 1.4938, "total_long_balls": 1.2924, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4658, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2772, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.5095, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9909, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.946, "crosses_total": 0.7158, "crosses_accurate": 0.242, "touches": 19.5359, "possession_lost": 5.2302, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 2.3197, "aerial_won": 0.2239, "aerial_lost": 0.3176, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3294, "tackles": 0.4717, "clearances": 0.3629, "total_contest": 1.4315, "won_contest": 0.5664, "challenges_lost": 0.2333, "fouls": 0.5304, "fouls_drawn": 0.2318, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.132, "xgot": 0.0265, "ball_carries": 6.5094, "total_progression": 27.1693, "progressive_carries": 0.7122, "shots_off_target": 0.2788, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.35, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.345, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0107, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0201, "finishing_factor": 1.0705, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0201, "provider_weight": 0.0255, "squad_weight_total": 0.7392, "weight_share": 0.0345, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.561, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2, "expected_assists": 0.78, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 452, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.87, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Bruno Fernandes", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Antonín Kinský" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.587, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.387, "xg_contribution": 0.2854, "xg_multiplier": 0.9522, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antonín Kinský", "role": "GK", "market_value": 15700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.613 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bruno Fernandes (LW) is evenly matched against Antonín Kinský in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€32M vs €16M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.285 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Matheus Cunha", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 79000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.881, "defenders": [ "Jan Paul van Hecke", "Micky van de Ven" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.842, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1592, "xg_multiplier": 0.9628, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.9, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "role": "CB", "market_value": 65000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Micky van de Ven", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matheus Cunha (ST) is evenly matched against Jan Paul van Hecke and Micky van de Ven in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€79M vs €57M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.159 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Marcus Rashford", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 38000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.77, "defenders": [ "Jan Paul van Hecke", "Micky van de Ven" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.842, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1838, "xg_multiplier": 0.9127, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "role": "CB", "market_value": 65000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Micky van de Ven", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marcus Rashford (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Jan Paul van Hecke and Micky van de Ven in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€38M vs €57M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.184 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Bryan Mbeumo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 73000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.875, "defenders": [ "Jan Paul van Hecke", "Micky van de Ven" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.842, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3139, "xg_multiplier": 0.9115, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.9, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "role": "CB", "market_value": 65000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Micky van de Ven", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bryan Mbeumo (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Jan Paul van Hecke and Micky van de Ven in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€73M vs €57M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.314 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Kobbie Mainoo", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 72000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.873, "defenders": [ "Archie Gray" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.746, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.455, "xg_contribution": 0.0551, "xg_multiplier": 1.0518, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Archie Gray", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 34000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.545 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kobbie Mainoo (CDM) is evenly matched against Archie Gray in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. The quality gap is significant (€72M vs €34M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.055 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Youri Tielemans", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Archie Gray" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.746, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.4, "xg_contribution": 0.0595, "xg_multiplier": 0.9712, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Archie Gray", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 34000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.6 } ], "duel_analysis": "Youri Tielemans (CDM) is evenly matched against Archie Gray in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.060 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Sandro Tonali", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 74000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.876, "defenders": [ "Luke Shaw" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.493, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.647, "xg_contribution": 0.0826, "xg_multiplier": 1.2459, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luke Shaw", "role": "RB", "market_value": 7500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.353 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sandro Tonali (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Luke Shaw in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 65%. The quality gap is significant (€74M vs €8M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.25 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.083 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Omar Marmoush", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 55000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.84, "defenders": [ "Diogo Dalot", "Harry Maguire" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.604, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.26, "xg_contribution": 0.2045, "xg_multiplier": 1.0885, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Diogo Dalot", "role": "CB", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.74 }, { "player": "Harry Maguire", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.74 } ], "duel_analysis": "Omar Marmoush (ST) is slightly favored against Diogo Dalot and Harry Maguire in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€55M vs €18M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.09 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.205 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Dominic Solanke", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Diogo Dalot", "Harry Maguire" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.604, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.22, "xg_contribution": 0.2272, "xg_multiplier": 1.0301, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Diogo Dalot", "role": "CB", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.78 }, { "player": "Harry Maguire", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.78 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dominic Solanke (ST) is evenly matched against Diogo Dalot and Harry Maguire in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.227 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Mohammed Kudus", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "Diogo Dalot", "Harry Maguire" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.604, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "xg_contribution": 0.0939, "xg_multiplier": 1.0454, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Diogo Dalot", "role": "CB", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769 }, { "player": "Harry Maguire", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mohammed Kudus (ST) is evenly matched against Diogo Dalot and Harry Maguire in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €18M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.094 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Sávio", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Diogo Dalot", "Harry Maguire" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.604, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.198, "xg_contribution": 0.171, "xg_multiplier": 0.9972, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Diogo Dalot", "role": "CB", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.802 }, { "player": "Harry Maguire", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.802 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sávio (ST) is evenly matched against Diogo Dalot and Harry Maguire in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. The quality gap is significant (€37M vs €18M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.171 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Archie Gray", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 34000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.746, "defenders": [ "Kobbie Mainoo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.873, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.385, "xg_contribution": 0.0689, "xg_multiplier": 0.9482, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kobbie Mainoo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 72000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.615 } ], "duel_analysis": "Archie Gray (CDM) is evenly matched against Kobbie Mainoo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€34M vs €72M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.069 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Mateus Fernandes", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 49000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.821, "defenders": [ "Kobbie Mainoo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.873, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.379, "xg_contribution": 0.0705, "xg_multiplier": 0.9391, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kobbie Mainoo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 72000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.621 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mateus Fernandes (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Kobbie Mainoo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€49M vs €72M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.071 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.8, "away_midfield_power": 0.814, "home_creative_power": 0.754, "away_creative_power": 0.82, "home_defensive_power": 0.709, "away_defensive_power": 0.789, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.496, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Bruno Fernandes", "Kobbie Mainoo", "Youri Tielemans" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Archie Gray", "Sandro Tonali", "Mateus Fernandes" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.6, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.4, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.2, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.4, "home_throughball_threat": 2.9, "away_throughball_threat": 3.1, "key_personal_duel": "Kobbie Mainoo vs Sandro Tonali", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.997, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.006 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.542, "away_lambda": 1.2, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Bruno Fernandes": { "opponents": [ "Antonín Kinský", "Sandro Tonali" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Matheus Cunha": { "opponents": [ "Jan Paul van Hecke", "Micky van de Ven" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Marcus Rashford": { "opponents": [ "Jan Paul van Hecke", "Micky van de Ven" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bryan Mbeumo": { "opponents": [ "Jan Paul van Hecke", "Micky van de Ven" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kobbie Mainoo": { "opponents": [ "Archie Gray", "Mateus Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Youri Tielemans": { "opponents": [ "Archie Gray", "Mateus Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Luke Shaw": { "opponents": [ "Sandro Tonali" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Diogo Dalot": { "opponents": [ "Omar Marmoush", "Dominic Solanke", "Mohammed Kudus", "Sávio" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Harry Maguire": { "opponents": [ "Omar Marmoush", "Dominic Solanke", "Mohammed Kudus", "Sávio" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Senne Lammens": { "opponents": [ "Omar Marmoush", "Mohammed Kudus" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Lisandro Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Sávio" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Antonín Kinský": { "opponents": [ "Bruno Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jan Paul van Hecke": { "opponents": [ "Matheus Cunha", "Marcus Rashford", "Bryan Mbeumo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Micky van de Ven": { "opponents": [ "Matheus Cunha", "Marcus Rashford", "Bryan Mbeumo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Archie Gray": { "opponents": [ "Kobbie Mainoo", "Youri Tielemans" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sandro Tonali": { "opponents": [ "Luke Shaw", "Bruno Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Omar Marmoush": { "opponents": [ "Diogo Dalot", "Harry Maguire" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Dominic Solanke": { "opponents": [ "Diogo Dalot", "Harry Maguire" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mohammed Kudus": { "opponents": [ "Diogo Dalot", "Harry Maguire" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Sávio": { "opponents": [ "Diogo Dalot", "Harry Maguire" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mateus Fernandes": { "opponents": [ "Kobbie Mainoo", "Youri Tielemans" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Destiny Udogie": { "opponents": [ "Matheus Cunha" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Kobbie Mainoo vs Sandro Tonali will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.06, Away: 0.92. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9494, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8743, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1633, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8947, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9376, "home_midfield_factor": 0.997, "away_midfield_factor": 1.006, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.7444, "away_avg_quality": 0.7993, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0549, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.1015, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.057, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.0087, "elite_count_gap": -1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0702, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.0569, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.1552 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.997, "result": 1.1517 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1517 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.3245 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0363, "result": 1.3725 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9494, "result": 1.3031 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8947, "result": 1.1659 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1633, "result": 1.3292 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.3292, "result": 1.3292, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0702, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.3292, "result": 1.3292 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.3292 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.2126, "result": 1.5416 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.5416 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.5416, "result": 1.542, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.542 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.542, "result": 1.542, "available": false }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.542 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.542 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.542, "result": 1.542, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.542 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.9186, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0514 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.006, "result": 1.0578 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0578 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0578 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9228, "result": 0.9761 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8743, "result": 0.8534 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9376, "result": 0.8002 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 0.9802 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9802, "result": 0.9802, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0702, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 0.9802, "result": 0.9802 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9802 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.2 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.2 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.2, "result": 1.2, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.2 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.2, "result": 1.2, "available": false }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.2 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.2 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.2, "result": 1.2, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.2 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.2126, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.542, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.2, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.5416, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.2, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.542, "final_away_lambda": 1.2 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 12, "opponent_position": 20, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0363, "attack_index": 1.105, "defense_concede_index": 0.982, "form_multiplier": 1.016, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.56, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.38, "team_ppg": 1.19, "opponent_ppg": 0.91 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 20, "opponent_position": 12, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9228, "attack_index": 0.745, "defense_concede_index": 1.105, "form_multiplier": 0.984, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.05, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.56, "team_ppg": 0.91, "opponent_ppg": 1.19 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Man Utd vs Tottenham. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.542, Away 1.200). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.542, Away 1.200 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 11, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.542, "away_lambda": 1.2, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.542, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.2 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-10T13:33:51Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }