{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261010", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "3-1", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0669, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Real Madrid", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1426, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0669 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0591 }, { "score": "3-2", "probability": 0.0583 }, { "score": "4-1", "probability": 0.0567 }, { "score": "2-2", "probability": 0.0515 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0061, "0-1": 0.0101, "0-2": 0.009, "0-3": 0.0052, "0-4": 0.0023, "0-5": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.0198, "1-1": 0.035, "1-2": 0.0304, "1-3": 0.0177, "1-4": 0.0077, "1-5": 0.0027, "1-6": 0.0008, "2-0": 0.0339, "2-1": 0.0591, "2-2": 0.0515, "2-3": 0.03, "2-4": 0.0131, "2-5": 0.0046, "2-6": 0.0013, "3-0": 0.0383, "3-1": 0.0669, "3-2": 0.0583, "3-3": 0.0339, "3-4": 0.0148, "3-5": 0.0052, "3-6": 0.0015, "4-0": 0.0325, "4-1": 0.0567, "4-2": 0.0495, "4-3": 0.0288, "4-4": 0.0125, "4-5": 0.0044, "4-6": 0.0013, "5-0": 0.0221, "5-1": 0.0385, "5-2": 0.0336, "5-3": 0.0195, "5-4": 0.0085, "5-5": 0.003, "5-6": 0.0009, "6-0": 0.0125, "6-1": 0.0218, "6-2": 0.019, "6-3": 0.011, "6-4": 0.0048, "6-5": 0.0017, "7-0": 0.0061, "7-1": 0.0106, "7-2": 0.0092, "7-3": 0.0054, "7-4": 0.0023, "7-5": 0.0008, "8-0": 0.0026, "8-1": 0.0045, "8-2": 0.0039, "8-3": 0.0023, "8-4": 0.001, "9-0": 0.001, "9-1": 0.0017, "9-2": 0.0015, "9-3": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.6918, "draw": 0.1426, "away_win": 0.1656 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.8862, "under_2_5_goals": 0.1138, "btts_yes": 0.7976, "btts_no": 0.2024, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1748, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0337 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.9, "MCR": 6.99, "ATR": 7.56, "GK": 7.0 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.9, "MCR": 7.01, "ATR": 7.06, "GK": 6.93 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Real Madrid vs Villarreal. Most likely scoreline: 3-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Kylian Mbappé (2), Vinícius Júnior, Alberto Moleiro", "tactical_analysis": "4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Jude Bellingham vs Pape Gueye). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.72, Away: 1.04. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.79, "home_lambda": 3.394, "away_lambda": 1.744, "h2h": { "available": false, "meetings": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_wins": 0, "draws": 0, "home_multiplier": 1.0, "away_multiplier": 1.0 }, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.6918, "draw": 0.1426, "away_win": 0.1656 }, "favorite": "Real Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6918, "fair_spread": 1.65, "fair_total": 5.138, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Madrid", "estimate": 3.394, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 1.744, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.8862, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.7976, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Madrid", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1748, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0337, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)", "estimate": 1.2926, "probability": 0.7254, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.4186, "probability": 0.342, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Arda Güler (Real Madrid)", "estimate": 0.4331, "probability": 0.3515, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.2584, "probability": 0.2277, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 5.138, "expected_total_shots": 33, "expected_total_passes": 1055, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.0, "possession_home_pct": 51.8, "possession_away_pct": 48.2, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Real Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6918, "script": "Real Madrid is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.65 goals and fair total 5.14.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Villarreal must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Real Madrid lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Madrid chance creation leans on Kylian Mbappé against Renato Veiga, Pau Navarro in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Real Madrid: starters carry the main goal usage through Kylian Mbappé (2), Vinícius Júnior; bench watchlist: Yan Diomande, Rodrygo.", "Villarreal: starters carry the main goal usage through Alberto Moleiro; bench watchlist: Tajon Buchanan, Nathan-Dylan Saliba, Manor Solomon.", "Assist usage should flow through Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, Ilias Akhomach; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Real Madrid tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 2.57 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Villarreal is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Real Madrid.", "Villarreal wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Real Madrid": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Kylian Mbappé": { "player_id": 826643, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 180, "market_value": 212000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 1.2926, "goal_rate": 0.8214, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_shots": 5, "expected_assists": 0.3371, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 7.8886, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 54, "possession_lost": 13.5486, "dispossessed": 1.5425, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.2471, "assists": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 1.6143, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 126, "progressive_carries": 5, "shots_off_target": 3, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0884, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.26, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Renato Veiga, Pau Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Renato Veiga, Pau Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 2, "goal_probability": 0.7254, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.2862, "finishing_factor": 1.0675, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 91.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416342, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.7396, "expected_assists": 0.9228, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416331, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.5, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 1.1245, "expected_assists": 0.316, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416315, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.779, "expected_assists": 0.3907, "total_shots": 7, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0136, "expected_assists": 0.2003, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 3.0, "goals": 3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.6713, "expected_assists": 0.1673, "total_shots": 8, "shots_on_target": 7, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416306, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.5287, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083731, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2598, "expected_assists": 0.0681, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083702, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5088, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "total_shots": 5, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083649, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1734, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2, "combined_rank_score": 5.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 10.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.5, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1.0, "fifa_overall": 91.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.8886, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking": 1 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 3 }, { "player_name": "Mariano Díaz", "ranking": 4 }, { "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking": 5 }, { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 }, { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 7 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 38, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0138, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 8.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 58.3, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 38 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Madrid, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 1.3333333333333333, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.6945, "goals": 0.7358, "goal_rate": 0.7358, "shots_on_target": 2.1778, "total_shots": 4.7775, "expected_assists": 0.1695, "key_pass": 1.5864, "rating": 7.8886, "minutes": 89.07, "total_pass": 33.1868, "accurate_pass": 28.4675, "duels_won": 4.8228, "total_long_balls": 1.7855, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2456, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.0804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6843, "crosses_total": 1.2277, "crosses_accurate": 0.0313, "touches": 53.7505, "possession_lost": 13.3642, "dispossessed": 1.5215, "duels_lost": 4.9795, "aerial_lost": 0.0747, "total_contest": 5.5011, "won_contest": 3.0082, "ball_recovery": 1.6245, "challenges_lost": 0.1855, "fouls": 0.981, "fouls_drawn": 1.2369, "assists": 0.2475, "assist_rate": 0.2475, 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"importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2401 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1708 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0949 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0754 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0779 } ], "others": 0.2533, "total": 1.5864, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.30468 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.171352 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.083856 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.061939 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.060207 } ], "others_margin": 0.173986 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.888596534729004, "model_output": 7.8886, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1957 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.1499 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.1135 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0915 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0889 } ], "others": 0.4869, "total": 7.8886, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.19575 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.149882 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.11351 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.091538 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.088868 } ], "others_margin": 0.486888 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0138, quality 0.900)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.7041, "goals": 0.746, "goal_rate": 0.746, "shots_on_target": 2.2079, "total_shots": 4.8434, "expected_assists": 0.1718, "key_pass": 1.6083, "rating": 7.8886, "minutes": 89.07, "total_pass": 33.6448, "accurate_pass": 28.8604, "duels_won": 4.8894, "total_long_balls": 1.8101, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2628, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.4541, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.9973, "crosses_total": 1.2446, "crosses_accurate": 0.0317, "touches": 54.4923, "possession_lost": 13.5486, "dispossessed": 1.5425, "duels_lost": 5.0482, "aerial_lost": 0.0757, "total_contest": 5.577, "won_contest": 3.0497, "ball_recovery": 1.6469, "challenges_lost": 0.1881, "fouls": 0.9945, "fouls_drawn": 1.254, "assists": 0.2509, "assist_rate": 0.2509, "interceptions": 0.0755, 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"Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1435, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5, "combined_rank_score": 11.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 9.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.5333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 14.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1475, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking": 1 }, { "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking": 2 }, { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 3 }, { "player_name": "Mariano Díaz", "ranking": 4 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 }, { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 7 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Fernandes", "ranking": 8 }, { "player_name": "Felix Horn Myhre", "ranking": 9 }, { "player_name": "Raphinha", "ranking": 10 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.777, "history_matches": 35, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", 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"log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.513781 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.16626 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.101566 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.05494 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.051005 } ], "others_margin": 0.121949 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.147544860839844, "model_output": 7.1475, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1364 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0641 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0332 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0297 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0245 } ], "others": 0.0107, "total": 7.1475, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.13644 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.064142 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033182 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.029747 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.024463 } ], "others_margin": 0.0107 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 28, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0148, quality 0.899)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7512, "expected_assists": 0.1453, "assists": 0.1397, "assist_rate": 0.1397, "expected_goals": 0.1927, "goals": 0.2175, "goal_rate": 0.2175, "shots_on_target": 0.7994, "total_shots": 2.0296, "rating": 7.1475, "minutes": 83.14, "total_pass": 41.4933, "accurate_pass": 37.1273, "duels_won": 8.0525, "total_long_balls": 3.3745, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7513, "total_own_half_passes": 14.3812, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0463, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.0811, "crosses_total": 0.6249, "crosses_accurate": 0.0459, "touches": 61.5518, "possession_lost": 9.5194, "dispossessed": 1.1238, "duels_lost": 5.1008, "aerial_won": 0.7921, "aerial_lost": 0.9311, "interceptions": 0.5849, "tackles_won": 1.3934, "tackles": 1.9359, "clearances": 0.6354, "total_contest": 3.8876, "won_contest": 2.557, "challenges_lost": 0.6194, "fouls": 1.1525, "fouls_drawn": 2.8032, "blocks": 0.1299, "big_chances_created": 0.4078, "big_chances_missed": 0.183, "xgot": 0.317, "ball_carries": 22.598, "total_progression": 64.4598, "progressive_carries": 2.3393, "shots_off_target": 1.2301 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 151000000, "quality_factor": 0.8995, "boost_factor": 1.0148, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0146)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7512, "expected_assists": 0.1453, "assists": 0.1477, "assist_rate": 0.1477, "expected_goals": 0.1927, "goals": 0.2243, "goal_rate": 0.2243, "shots_on_target": 0.8078, "total_shots": 2.0402, "rating": 7.1475, "minutes": 83.14, "total_pass": 41.4933, "accurate_pass": 37.1273, "duels_won": 8.0525, "total_long_balls": 3.3745, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7513, "total_own_half_passes": 14.3812, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0463, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.0811, "crosses_total": 0.6208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0459, "touches": 61.5518, "possession_lost": 9.5194, "dispossessed": 1.1238, "duels_lost": 5.1008, "aerial_won": 0.7921, "aerial_lost": 0.9311, "interceptions": 0.5763, "tackles_won": 1.393, "tackles": 1.9359, "clearances": 0.6354, "total_contest": 3.8876, "won_contest": 2.557, "challenges_lost": 0.6194, "fouls": 1.1457, "fouls_drawn": 2.7972, "blocks": 0.1299, "big_chances_created": 0.4078, "big_chances_missed": 0.183, "xgot": 0.317, "ball_carries": 22.598, "total_progression": 64.4598, "progressive_carries": 2.3393, "shots_off_target": 1.2301 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0146, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9238, "prior_reliability": 0.18, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0296, "after": 2.0402 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.5849, "after": 0.5763 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7994, "after": 0.8078 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.1397, "after": 0.1477 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.1525, "after": 1.1457 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2175, "after": 0.2243 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 2.8032, "after": 2.7972 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7512, "expected_assists": 0.1453, "assists": 0.1477, "assist_rate": 0.1477, "expected_goals": 0.1927, "goals": 0.2243, "goal_rate": 0.2243, "shots_on_target": 0.8078, "total_shots": 2.0402, "rating": 7.1475, "minutes": 83.14, "total_pass": 41.4933, "accurate_pass": 37.1273, "duels_won": 8.0525, "total_long_balls": 3.3745, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7513, "total_own_half_passes": 14.3812, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0463, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1122, 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"others_margin": 0.157486 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.088347434997559, "model_output": 7.0883, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1266 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.03 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0173 } ], "others": 0.028, "total": 7.0883, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.126579 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.029953 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.019878 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.01755 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.017345 } ], "others_margin": 0.028172 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0127, quality 0.887)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8598, "expected_assists": 0.2207, "assists": 0.1994, "assist_rate": 0.1994, "expected_goals": 0.1859, "goals": 0.1473, "goal_rate": 0.1473, "shots_on_target": 0.6428, "total_shots": 1.8478, "rating": 7.0883, "minutes": 68.72, "total_pass": 39.9174, "accurate_pass": 35.5105, "duels_won": 4.2945, "total_long_balls": 4.0881, "accurate_long_balls": 3.262, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9829, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6022, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.9345, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.9083, "crosses_total": 4.4609, "crosses_accurate": 2.0899, "touches": 56.9176, "possession_lost": 10.8751, "dispossessed": 1.1388, "duels_lost": 3.3557, "aerial_won": 0.2421, "aerial_lost": 0.0897, "interceptions": 0.272, "tackles_won": 0.6048, "tackles": 0.9805, "clearances": 0.247, "total_contest": 2.005, "won_contest": 1.0682, "challenges_lost": 0.5769, "fouls": 0.6153, "fouls_drawn": 2.0035, "blocks": 0.2463, "big_chances_created": 0.9, "big_chances_missed": 0.1529, "xgot": 0.0503, "ball_carries": 17.2712, "total_progression": 48.4174, "progressive_carries": 1.5965, "shots_off_target": 1.205 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 87000000, "quality_factor": 0.8873, "boost_factor": 1.0127, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0077)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8598, "expected_assists": 0.2207, "assists": 0.2015, "assist_rate": 0.2015, "expected_goals": 0.1859, "goals": 0.1498, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "shots_on_target": 0.6452, "total_shots": 1.8483, "rating": 7.0883, "minutes": 68.72, "total_pass": 39.9174, "accurate_pass": 35.5105, "duels_won": 4.2945, "total_long_balls": 4.0881, "accurate_long_balls": 3.262, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9829, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6022, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.9345, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.9083, "crosses_total": 4.4596, "crosses_accurate": 2.0899, "touches": 56.9176, "possession_lost": 10.8751, "dispossessed": 1.1388, "duels_lost": 3.3557, "aerial_won": 0.2421, "aerial_lost": 0.0897, "interceptions": 0.2699, "tackles_won": 0.6112, "tackles": 0.9805, "clearances": 0.247, "total_contest": 2.005, "won_contest": 1.0682, "challenges_lost": 0.5769, "fouls": 0.6106, "fouls_drawn": 1.9954, "blocks": 0.2463, "big_chances_created": 0.9, "big_chances_missed": 0.1529, "xgot": 0.0503, "ball_carries": 17.2712, "total_progression": 48.4174, "progressive_carries": 1.5965, "shots_off_target": 1.205 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0077, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7636, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 2.0035, "after": 1.9954 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.6048, "after": 0.6112 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8598, "expected_assists": 0.2207, "assists": 0.2015, "assist_rate": 0.2015, "expected_goals": 0.1859, "goals": 0.1498, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "shots_on_target": 0.6452, "total_shots": 1.8502, "rating": 7.0883, "minutes": 68.72, "total_pass": 39.9174, "accurate_pass": 35.5105, "duels_won": 4.2945, "total_long_balls": 4.0881, "accurate_long_balls": 3.262, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9829, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6022, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.9345, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.9083, "crosses_total": 4.4596, "crosses_accurate": 2.0899, "touches": 56.9176, "possession_lost": 10.8751, "dispossessed": 1.1388, "duels_lost": 3.3557, "aerial_won": 0.2421, "aerial_lost": 0.0897, "interceptions": 0.2699, "tackles_won": 0.6112, "tackles": 0.9805, "clearances": 0.247, 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"accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.9083, "crosses_total": 4.4596, "crosses_accurate": 2.0899, "touches": 56.9176, "possession_lost": 10.8751, "dispossessed": 1.1388, "duels_lost": 3.3557, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.0897, "interceptions": 0.2699, "tackles_won": 0.6112, "tackles": 0.9805, "clearances": 0.247, "total_contest": 2.005, "won_contest": 1.0682, "challenges_lost": 0.5769, "fouls": 0.6106, "fouls_drawn": 1.9954, "blocks": 0.2463, "big_chances_created": 0.9, "big_chances_missed": 0.1781, "xgot": 0.0586, "ball_carries": 17.2712, "total_progression": 48.4174, "progressive_carries": 1.5965, "shots_off_target": 1.4038, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.165, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.592, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sergi Cardona", "opponent_faced": "Sergi Cardona", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Sergi Cardona", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.592, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.165, "skill_edge": 0.1523, "height_edge": -0.04, "attacker_skill": 0.8873, "defender_skill": 0.5489, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Sergi Cardona", "market_value": 8600000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.5489 } ], "xg_override": 0.2166 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.2421, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.8502, "after": 2.1555 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.205, "after": 1.4038 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6452, "after": 0.7517 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1859, "after": 0.2166 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1529, "after": 0.1781 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1498, "after": 0.1745 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0503, "after": 0.0586 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.39 (squad xG sum 2.0121, xG scale 1.6868, xA scale 1.9624, team xA 2.21 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8598, "expected_assists": 0.4331, "assist_rate": 0.2015, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3654, "goal_rate": 0.1745, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7517, "total_shots": 2.1555, "rating": 7.0883, "minutes": 68.72, "total_pass": 39.9174, "accurate_pass": 35.5105, "duels_won": 4.2945, "total_long_balls": 4.0881, "accurate_long_balls": 3.262, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9829, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6022, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.9345, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.9083, "crosses_total": 4.4596, "crosses_accurate": 2.0899, "touches": 56.9176, "possession_lost": 10.8751, "dispossessed": 1.1388, 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0.9291 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.394, "squad_xg_sum": 2.0121, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1242, "team_expected_assists": 2.2061, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6868, "xa_scale": 1.9624, "opponent_lambda": 1.744, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2166, "after": 0.3654 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.2207, "after": 0.4331 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8598, "expected_assists": 0.4331, "assist_rate": 0.2015, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3654, "goal_rate": 0.1745, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7517, "total_shots": 2.1555, "rating": 7.0883, "minutes": 68.72, "total_pass": 39.9174, "accurate_pass": 35.5105, "duels_won": 4.2945, "total_long_balls": 4.0881, "accurate_long_balls": 3.262, 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"scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0853 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0686 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0309 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0146 } ], "others": -0.0226, "total": 7.0179, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.085268 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.068625 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030861 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.021398 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.014635 } ], "others_margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0042, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3825, "expected_assists": 0.1067, "assists": 0.1031, "assist_rate": 0.1031, "expected_goals": 0.0715, "goals": 0.0575, "goal_rate": 0.0575, "shots_on_target": 0.2098, "total_shots": 0.8112, "rating": 6.9968, "minutes": 77.99, "total_pass": 65.6892, "accurate_pass": 59.5392, "duels_won": 3.4052, "total_long_balls": 3.8238, "accurate_long_balls": 1.878, "total_own_half_passes": 29.0461, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.0091, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.6432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.5302, "crosses_total": 2.0567, "crosses_accurate": 0.3643, "touches": 79.22, "possession_lost": 10.2346, "dispossessed": 0.7674, "duels_lost": 3.4724, "aerial_won": 0.1951, "aerial_lost": 0.2125, "interceptions": 1.0573, "tackles_won": 1.0941, "tackles": 2.1273, "clearances": 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"numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Santiago Mouriño", "opponent_faced": "Santiago Mouriño", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Santiago Mouriño", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.401, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8844, "skill_edge": -0.0266, "height_edge": -0.052, "attacker_skill": 0.6408, "defender_skill": 0.6999, "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Santiago Mouriño", "market_value": 19400000, "role": "LB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.6999 } ], "xg_override": 0.0632 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.1951, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8093, "after": 0.7158 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6014, "after": 0.5319 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", 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"contribution": 0.0607 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0374 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0031, "total": 0.494, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.092198 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.060711 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.03739 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.01187 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.008239 } ], "others_margin": -0.003172 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.939600944519043, "model_output": 6.9396, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0687 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0408 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0329 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0237, "total": 6.9396, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.068685 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.04083 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.032886 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.024036 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.011787 } ], "others_margin": -0.023753 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 29, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0133, quality 0.834)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9207, "tackles": 1.6925, "tackles_won": 0.9978, "clearances": 2.1096, "aerial_won": 0.806, "total_shots": 0.5006, "rating": 6.9396, "minutes": 81.88, "total_pass": 60.4839, "accurate_pass": 54.9236, "duels_won": 4.6594, "total_long_balls": 1.9405, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7007, "total_own_half_passes": 25.7234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.4417, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.7604, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.4819, "crosses_total": 1.0033, "crosses_accurate": 0.2018, "touches": 79.9915, "possession_lost": 9.2261, "dispossessed": 0.7544, "duels_lost": 2.8556, "aerial_lost": 0.472, "total_contest": 1.175, "won_contest": 0.9658, "ball_recovery": 4.5139, "challenges_lost": 0.567, "fouls": 0.8529, "fouls_drawn": 1.0383, "blocks": 0.1782, "goals": 0.1936, 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"total_opp_half_passes": 34.7604, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.4819, "crosses_total": 1.0069, "crosses_accurate": 0.2018, "touches": 79.9915, "possession_lost": 9.2261, "dispossessed": 0.7544, "duels_lost": 2.8556, "aerial_lost": 0.472, "total_contest": 1.175, "won_contest": 0.9658, "ball_recovery": 4.5139, "challenges_lost": 0.567, "fouls": 0.8522, "fouls_drawn": 1.0363, "blocks": 0.1782, "goals": 0.1922, "goal_rate": 0.1922, "assists": 0.1421, "assist_rate": 0.1421, "expected_goals": 0.0457, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "shots_on_target": 0.27, "big_chances_created": 0.1146, "xgot": 0.1412, "ball_carries": 18.113, "total_progression": 67.0674, "progressive_carries": 0.987, "key_pass": 1.4651, "shots_off_target": 0.2287 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.007, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9098, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9249, "tackles": 1.6925, "tackles_won": 1.0014, "clearances": 2.1096, "aerial_won": 0.806, "total_shots": 0.4987, "rating": 6.9396, "minutes": 81.88, "total_pass": 60.4839, "accurate_pass": 54.9236, "duels_won": 4.6594, "total_long_balls": 1.9405, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7007, "total_own_half_passes": 25.7234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.4417, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.7604, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.4819, "crosses_total": 1.0069, "crosses_accurate": 0.2018, "touches": 79.9915, "possession_lost": 9.2261, "dispossessed": 0.7544, "duels_lost": 2.8556, "aerial_lost": 0.472, "total_contest": 1.175, "won_contest": 0.9658, "ball_recovery": 4.5139, "challenges_lost": 0.567, "fouls": 0.8522, "fouls_drawn": 1.0363, "blocks": 0.1782, "goals": 0.1922, "goal_rate": 0.1922, "assists": 0.1421, "assist_rate": 0.1421, "expected_goals": 0.0457, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "shots_on_target": 0.27, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0097, quality 0.809)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9647, "tackles": 1.1903, "tackles_won": 0.6798, "clearances": 3.933, "aerial_won": 1.8957, "total_shots": 0.5625, "rating": 6.8353, "minutes": 88.89, "total_pass": 57.7431, "accurate_pass": 53.1343, "duels_won": 3.971, "total_long_balls": 3.6529, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9014, "total_own_half_passes": 37.1211, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.5711, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.622, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.5631, "crosses_total": 0.0076, "crosses_accurate": 0.0059, "touches": 68.2842, "possession_lost": 5.7249, "dispossessed": 0.4623, "duels_lost": 3.0286, "aerial_lost": 1.1138, "total_contest": 0.109, "won_contest": 0.0251, "ball_recovery": 4.043, "challenges_lost": 0.2256, "fouls": 1.1435, "fouls_drawn": 0.7968, "blocks": 0.8624, "goals": 0.007, 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"importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0931 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0517 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0309 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0306 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0215 } ], "others": 0.0042, "total": 0.6413, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.093113 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051721 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.030865 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.030616 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.021512 } ], "others_margin": 0.004039 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9106316566467285, "model_output": 6.9106, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": 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"role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9984, quality 0.477)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7771, "tackles": 0.8031, "tackles_won": 0.576, "clearances": 5.1724, "aerial_won": 2.0591, "total_shots": 0.6403, "rating": 6.9106, "minutes": 88.14, "total_pass": 70.0079, "accurate_pass": 65.507, "duels_won": 2.6642, "total_long_balls": 5.4438, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0623, "total_own_half_passes": 50.4783, "accurate_own_half_passes": 48.6817, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5296, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8253, "crosses_total": 0.0118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 79.0165, "possession_lost": 4.8994, "dispossessed": 0.0826, "duels_lost": 1.2095, "aerial_lost": 0.5614, "total_contest": 0.0138, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.9651, "challenges_lost": 0.0192, "fouls": 0.5691, "fouls_drawn": 0.2651, "blocks": 0.9346, "goals": 0.0431, 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"importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1426 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.067 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0659 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0223 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0187 } ], "others": -0.0146, "total": 0.9892, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.142623 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.067005 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.065923 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.022265 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.018713 } ], "others_margin": -0.014528 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7175469398498535, "model_output": 6.7175, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 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}, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0247, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6128, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "assists": 0.0805, "assist_rate": 0.0805, "expected_goals": 0.0879, "goals": 0.0817, "goal_rate": 0.0817, "shots_on_target": 0.3111, "total_shots": 1.0136, "rating": 6.7175, "minutes": 84.23, "total_pass": 29.3366, "accurate_pass": 25.7755, "duels_won": 3.6163, "total_long_balls": 1.1153, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6808, "total_own_half_passes": 12.838, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.2477, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4987, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5277, "crosses_total": 0.7739, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.6615, "possession_lost": 8.4322, "dispossessed": 0.9572, "duels_lost": 2.4163, "aerial_won": 1.0637, "aerial_lost": 0.7108, "interceptions": 0.5742, "tackles_won": 1.3899, "tackles": 2.1735, "clearances": 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}, { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0106 } ], "others": 0.0017, "total": 0.0312, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.069036 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.017966 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.017895 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.012446 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.01055 } ], "others_margin": 0.001658 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.110038757324219, "model_output": 7.11, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0557 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"market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.13)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4311, "goals_prevented": 0.0053, "rating": 7.11, "minutes": 4.79, "total_pass": 5.9479, "accurate_pass": 5.233, "total_long_balls": 1.7109, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0141, "touches": 7.5372, "clearances": 0.095, "ball_recovery": 1.264, "high_claims": 0.2418, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0294, "sweeper_actions": 0.1249, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1249, "saves_inside_box": 0.283, "possession_lost": 0.7329, "duels_won": 0.0639, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.1138, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9088, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.127, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.79 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.79, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.168, "appearance_probability": 0.127 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4311, "goals_prevented": 0.0053, "rating": 7.11, "minutes": 4.79, "total_pass": 5.9479, "accurate_pass": 5.233, "total_long_balls": 1.7109, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0141, "touches": 7.5372, "clearances": 0.095, "ball_recovery": 1.264, "high_claims": 0.2418, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0294, "sweeper_actions": 0.1249, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1249, "saves_inside_box": 0.283, "possession_lost": 0.7329, "duels_won": 0.0639, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.1138, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9088, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.127, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.79 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4311, 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"assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.127, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4311, "goals_prevented": 0.0053, "rating": 7.11, "minutes": 4.79, "total_pass": 5.9479, "accurate_pass": 5.233, "total_long_balls": 1.7109, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0141, "touches": 7.5372, "clearances": 0.095, "ball_recovery": 1.264, "high_claims": 0.2418, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0294, "sweeper_actions": 0.1249, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1249, "saves_inside_box": 0.283, "possession_lost": 0.7329, "duels_won": 0.0639, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.1138, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9088, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.127, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.79, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.828, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1161, "fifa_rank": 760.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } } ] }, "Dean Huijsen": { "player_id": 1176744, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 195, "market_value": 66000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 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16416342, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1048, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 49, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416315, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4003, 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true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083702, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 67, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083422, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0244, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 97, "accurate_pass": 89, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083211, "match_date": "2026-04-24", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0064, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 556, "combined_rank_score": 306.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 30.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.0, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 583.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9597, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dean Huijsen", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Senne Lammens", "ranking": 551 }, { "player_name": "Agustín Arce", "ranking": 552 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Panach Olmo", "ranking": 553 }, { "player_name": "Edu Altozano", "ranking": 554 }, { "player_name": "Joseph Otunenche", "ranking": 555 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jarrod Bowen", "ranking": 557 }, { "player_name": "Ivan Alonso Martin", "ranking": 558 }, { "player_name": "Marco Román", "ranking": 559 }, { "player_name": "Nicolas Pépé", "ranking": 560 }, { "player_name": "Javi Navarro", "ranking": 561 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 34, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 15.26313809048036, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.252, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0138, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (34 historical appearances) to 15.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.25); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4221, "tackles": 0.5991, "tackles_won": 0.3769, "clearances": 2.0808, "aerial_won": 0.9105, "total_shots": 0.2824, "rating": 6.9597, "minutes": 21.64, "total_pass": 22.7306, "accurate_pass": 20.1961, "duels_won": 1.2137, "total_long_balls": 2.3664, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7202, "total_own_half_passes": 12.4146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.1008, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.316, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0953, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.5494, "possession_lost": 2.5345, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4535, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2267, "won_contest": 0.2267, "ball_recovery": 1.2607, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4535, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1927, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0172, "expected_assists": 0.011, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.5438, "total_progression": 60.3585, "progressive_carries": 1.4043, "key_pass": 0.1927, "shots_off_target": 0.2824 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 52.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1506, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.128, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1088, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0925, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 20.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 7.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 4.5357, "aerialWon": 1.3919, "totalClearance_p90": 5.4998, "totalTackle": 1.3355, "totalPass": 58.3392 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.4221230745315552, "model_output": 0.4221, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4796 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0324 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.012 } ], "others": -0.0013, "total": 0.4221, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.819765 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.082398 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.031137 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.028701 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.027985 } ], "others_margin": -0.002945 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5990791320800781, "model_output": 0.5991, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7157 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0317 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0209 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0173 } ], "others": -0.0275, "total": 0.5991, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.720491 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.04793 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.032803 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.028835 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.027265 } ], "others_margin": -0.044796 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3768647611141205, "model_output": 0.3769, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4125 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0359, "total": 0.3769, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.659324 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.038719 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.030657 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.026252 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.025112 } ], "others_margin": -0.090894 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.0807957649230957, "model_output": 2.0808, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0312 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2498 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1265 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0925 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0823 } ], "others": 0.1095, "total": 2.0808, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.887978 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.162053 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.073006 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.050191 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.042636 } ], "others_margin": 0.05406 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.9105385541915894, "model_output": 0.9105, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7141 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0451 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0309 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0319 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0322 } ], "others": 0.1025, "total": 0.9105, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.727182 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.065362 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.042456 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.041932 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.040707 } ], "others_margin": 0.119452 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2824315130710602, "model_output": 0.2824, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2212 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0556 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0146 } ], "others": -0.0687, "total": 0.2824, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.221234 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.055622 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.015743 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.015262 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.014551 } ], "others_margin": -0.068645 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.959697246551514, "model_output": 6.9597, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0479 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0432 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0232 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0229 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0195 } ], "others": 0.1137, "total": 6.9597, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.047852 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.043196 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.02321 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.022906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.019465 } ], "others_margin": 0.113641 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0138, quality 0.864)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4279, "tackles": 0.6073, "tackles_won": 0.3821, "clearances": 2.1095, "aerial_won": 0.9231, "total_shots": 0.2863, "rating": 6.9597, "minutes": 21.64, "total_pass": 23.0443, "accurate_pass": 20.4748, "duels_won": 1.2304, "total_long_balls": 2.3991, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7439, "total_own_half_passes": 12.5859, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.2678, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4584, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.207, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.902, "possession_lost": 2.5695, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4598, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2298, "won_contest": 0.2298, "ball_recovery": 1.2781, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4598, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1954, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0174, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.6893, "total_progression": 61.1914, "progressive_carries": 1.4237, "key_pass": 0.1954, "shots_off_target": 0.2863 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 66000000, "quality_factor": 0.8644, "boost_factor": 1.0138, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0167)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4261, "tackles": 0.6073, "tackles_won": 0.3797, "clearances": 2.1095, "aerial_won": 0.9231, "total_shots": 0.2855, "rating": 6.9597, "minutes": 21.64, "total_pass": 23.0443, "accurate_pass": 20.4748, "duels_won": 1.2304, "total_long_balls": 2.3991, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7439, "total_own_half_passes": 12.5859, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.2678, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4584, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.207, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.902, "possession_lost": 2.5695, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4598, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2298, "won_contest": 0.2298, "ball_recovery": 1.2781, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4548, "fouls_drawn": 0.0027, "blocks": 0.1954, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0174, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.6893, "total_progression": 61.1914, "progressive_carries": 1.4237, "key_pass": 0.1954, "shots_off_target": 0.2863 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0167, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2404, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.4598, "after": 0.4548 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.6 to 15.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.25)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3005, "tackles": 0.4283, "tackles_won": 0.2678, "clearances": 1.4879, "aerial_won": 0.6511, "total_shots": 0.2019, "rating": 6.9597, "minutes": 15.26, "total_pass": 16.2536, "accurate_pass": 14.4413, "duels_won": 0.8678, "total_long_balls": 1.6921, "accurate_long_balls": 1.23, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8771, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.6527, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3765, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7886, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.2692, "possession_lost": 1.8123, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3243, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1621, "won_contest": 0.1621, "ball_recovery": 0.9015, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3208, "fouls_drawn": 0.0019, "blocks": 0.1378, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0123, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5394, "total_progression": 43.1596, "progressive_carries": 1.0042, "key_pass": 0.1378, "shots_off_target": 0.2019, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.252, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.26 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.26, "projection_minutes": 21.64, "minutes_scale": 0.7053, "appearance_probability": 0.252 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3005, "tackles": 0.4283, "tackles_won": 0.2678, "clearances": 1.4879, "aerial_won": 0.6511, "total_shots": 0.2019, "rating": 6.9597, "minutes": 15.26, "total_pass": 16.2536, "accurate_pass": 14.4413, "duels_won": 0.8678, "total_long_balls": 1.6921, "accurate_long_balls": 1.23, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8771, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.6527, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3765, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7886, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.2692, "possession_lost": 1.8123, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3243, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1621, "won_contest": 0.1621, "ball_recovery": 0.9015, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3208, "fouls_drawn": 0.0019, "blocks": 0.1378, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0123, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5394, "total_progression": 43.1596, "progressive_carries": 1.0042, "key_pass": 0.1378, "shots_off_target": 0.2019, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.252, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.26 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3005, "tackles": 0.4283, "tackles_won": 0.2678, "clearances": 1.4879, "aerial_won": 0.6511, "total_shots": 0.2019, "rating": 6.9597, "minutes": 15.26, "total_pass": 16.2536, "accurate_pass": 14.4413, "duels_won": 0.8678, "total_long_balls": 1.6921, "accurate_long_balls": 1.23, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8771, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.6527, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3765, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7886, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.2692, "possession_lost": 1.8123, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3243, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1621, "won_contest": 0.1621, "ball_recovery": 0.9015, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3208, "fouls_drawn": 0.0019, "blocks": 0.1378, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0123, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.5394, "total_progression": 43.1596, "progressive_carries": 1.0042, "key_pass": 0.1378, "shots_off_target": 0.2019, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.252, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.26, 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"predicted": 0.2756652235984802, "model_output": 0.2757, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.817 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1584 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0314 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0164 } ], "others": -0.0381, "total": 0.2757, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.894448 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.328949 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.117371 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.090706 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.050797 } ], "others_margin": -0.12985 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2326, "model_output": 0.1077, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2095 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0735 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0265 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0068 } ], "others": -0.0403, "total": 0.1077, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.209548 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.073488 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026513 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.006774 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.006773 } ], "others_margin": -0.040367 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7340521812438965, "model_output": 6.7341, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0358 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0177, "total": 6.7341, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.035835 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.023096 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017693 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.015288 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013037 } ], "others_margin": -0.0178 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0115, quality 0.857)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3063, "tackles": 0.7684, "tackles_won": 0.5084, "clearances": 0.8175, "aerial_won": 0.2788, "total_shots": 0.2353, "rating": 6.7341, "minutes": 24.05, "total_pass": 17.543, "accurate_pass": 15.145, "duels_won": 1.7452, "total_long_balls": 0.9334, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5102, "total_own_half_passes": 7.7514, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.8444, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7915, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3006, "crosses_total": 0.6358, "crosses_accurate": 0.1271, "touches": 23.5685, "possession_lost": 3.1502, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2645, "aerial_lost": 0.3152, "total_contest": 0.2436, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4437, "challenges_lost": 0.4514, "fouls": 0.2543, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.1271, "goal_rate": 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"description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.1 to 26.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3393, "tackles": 0.8515, "tackles_won": 0.5628, "clearances": 0.9059, "aerial_won": 0.3089, "total_shots": 0.2585, "rating": 6.7341, "minutes": 26.65, "total_pass": 19.4395, "accurate_pass": 16.7823, "duels_won": 1.9339, "total_long_balls": 1.0343, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5654, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5894, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.5843, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.85, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.198, "crosses_total": 0.6986, "crosses_accurate": 0.1408, "touches": 26.1164, "possession_lost": 3.4908, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4012, "aerial_lost": 0.3152, "total_contest": 0.2699, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5998, "challenges_lost": 0.4514, "fouls": 0.2794, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.1396, "goal_rate": 0.1396, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1206, "expected_assists": 0.0529, "shots_on_target": 0.2585, "big_chances_created": 0.1658, "xgot": 0.1428, "ball_carries": 4.3857, "total_progression": 20.2809, "progressive_carries": 0.659, "key_pass": 0.7412, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.65 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.65, "projection_minutes": 24.05, "minutes_scale": 1.1081, "appearance_probability": 0.508 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3393, "tackles": 0.8515, "tackles_won": 0.5628, "clearances": 0.9059, "aerial_won": 0.3089, "total_shots": 0.2585, "rating": 6.7341, "minutes": 26.65, "total_pass": 19.4395, "accurate_pass": 16.7823, "duels_won": 1.9339, "total_long_balls": 1.0343, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5654, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5894, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.5843, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.85, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.198, "crosses_total": 0.6986, 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"aerial_won": 0.3089, "total_shots": 0.2585, "rating": 6.7341, "minutes": 26.65, "total_pass": 19.4395, "accurate_pass": 16.7823, "duels_won": 1.9339, "total_long_balls": 1.0343, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5654, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5894, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.5843, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.85, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.198, "crosses_total": 0.6986, "crosses_accurate": 0.1408, "touches": 26.1164, "possession_lost": 3.4908, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4012, "aerial_lost": 0.3152, "total_contest": 0.2699, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5998, "challenges_lost": 0.4514, "fouls": 0.2794, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.1396, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1206, "expected_assists": 0.0529, "shots_on_target": 0.2585, "big_chances_created": 0.1658, "xgot": 0.1428, "ball_carries": 4.3857, "total_progression": 20.2809, "progressive_carries": 0.659, "key_pass": 0.7412, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.65, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.828, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.508, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3393, "tackles": 0.8515, "tackles_won": 0.5628, "clearances": 0.9059, "aerial_won": 0.3089, "total_shots": 0.2585, "rating": 6.7341, "minutes": 26.65, "total_pass": 19.4395, "accurate_pass": 16.7823, "duels_won": 1.9339, "total_long_balls": 1.0343, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5654, 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"projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 77, "fifa_rank": 138.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } } ] }, "Federico Valverde": { "player_id": 831808, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 181, "market_value": 87000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0325, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0285, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.9295, "minutes": 24, 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1.4556, "total_contest": 0.9326, "won_contest": 0.6466, "challenges_lost": 0.4888, "fouls": 0.4842, "fouls_drawn": 0.6002, "blocks": 0.2893, "big_chances_created": 0.0601, "big_chances_missed": 0.0003, "xgot": 0.0827, "ball_carries": 16.4045, "total_progression": 54.5802, "progressive_carries": 1.4266, "shots_off_target": 0.2985 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 87000000, "quality_factor": 0.8873, "boost_factor": 1.0127, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0135)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4887, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "assists": 0.0425, "assist_rate": 0.0425, "expected_goals": 0.0345, "goals": 0.0595, "goal_rate": 0.0595, "shots_on_target": 0.1461, "total_shots": 0.4437, "rating": 6.9295, "minutes": 28.76, "total_pass": 51.8738, "accurate_pass": 47.4371, "duels_won": 2.871, "total_long_balls": 3.3461, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3517, "total_own_half_passes": 20.7334, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5697, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.1403, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.8673, "crosses_total": 0.2935, "crosses_accurate": 0.0662, "touches": 61.3753, "possession_lost": 6.1463, "dispossessed": 0.4179, "duels_lost": 1.7487, "aerial_won": 0.7355, "aerial_lost": 0.0717, "interceptions": 0.642, "tackles_won": 0.6695, "tackles": 0.8886, "clearances": 1.4556, "total_contest": 0.9326, "won_contest": 0.6466, "challenges_lost": 0.4888, "fouls": 0.4792, "fouls_drawn": 0.5921, "blocks": 0.2893, "big_chances_created": 0.0601, "big_chances_missed": 0.0003, "xgot": 0.0827, "ball_carries": 16.4045, "total_progression": 54.5802, "progressive_carries": 1.4266, "shots_off_target": 0.2985 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0135, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3196, "prior_reliability": 0.1867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", 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among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4036, "expected_assists": 0.0325, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0285, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1207, "total_shots": 0.3672, "rating": 6.9295, "minutes": 23.75, "total_pass": 42.8438, "accurate_pass": 39.1794, "duels_won": 2.3712, "total_long_balls": 2.7636, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9423, "total_own_half_passes": 17.1242, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.1631, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.7195, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.0162, "crosses_total": 0.2424, "crosses_accurate": 0.0547, "touches": 50.6913, "possession_lost": 5.0764, "dispossessed": 0.4179, "duels_lost": 1.4443, "aerial_won": 0.6075, "aerial_lost": 0.0717, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.553, "tackles": 0.7339, "clearances": 1.2022, "total_contest": 0.7703, "won_contest": 0.534, "challenges_lost": 0.4888, "fouls": 0.3958, "fouls_drawn": 0.489, "blocks": 0.2389, 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0.0491, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1207, "total_shots": 0.3672, "rating": 6.9295, "minutes": 23.75, "total_pass": 42.8438, "accurate_pass": 39.1794, "duels_won": 2.3712, "total_long_balls": 2.7636, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9423, "total_own_half_passes": 17.1242, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.1631, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.7195, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.0162, "crosses_total": 0.2424, "crosses_accurate": 0.0547, "touches": 50.6913, "possession_lost": 5.0764, "dispossessed": 0.4179, "duels_lost": 1.4443, "aerial_won": 0.6075, "aerial_lost": 0.0717, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.553, "tackles": 0.7339, "clearances": 1.2022, "total_contest": 0.7703, "won_contest": 0.534, "challenges_lost": 0.4888, "fouls": 0.3958, "fouls_drawn": 0.489, "blocks": 0.2389, "big_chances_created": 0.0496, "big_chances_missed": 0.0002, "xgot": 0.0683, "ball_carries": 13.5489, "total_progression": 45.079, "progressive_carries": 1.1783, "shots_off_target": 0.2465, 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"league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083422, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 956, "combined_rank_score": 442.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 307.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0364, "sofascore_appearances": 11.0, "fifa_rank": 578.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8407, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Eduardo Camavinga", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Pedro Bigas", "ranking": 951 }, { "player_name": "Seung-jae Lee", "ranking": 952 }, { "player_name": "Hyun-Jun Suk", "ranking": 953 }, { "player_name": "Theo Hernández", "ranking": 954 }, { "player_name": "Moussa Diaby", "ranking": 955 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Giuliano Simeone", "ranking": 957 }, { "player_name": "Gerónimo Rulli", "ranking": 958 }, { "player_name": "Mohamed Simakan", "ranking": 959 }, { "player_name": "Nico González", "ranking": 960 }, { "player_name": "Gonçalo Guedes", "ranking": 961 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.763, "history_matches": 35, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], 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"progressive_carries": 0.5739, "shots_off_target": 0.1242 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:58.420391+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1505, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 10.0, 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"others_margin": -0.299511 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.02637575753033161, "model_output": 0.0264, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0032 } ], "others": -0.0101, "total": 0.0264, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.261121 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.260568 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.135805 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.1046 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.084903 } ], "others_margin": -0.325909 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.014332550577819347, "model_output": 0.0143, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0399 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0016 } ], "others": -0.0065, "total": 0.0143, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.549537 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.393627 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.354145 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.141049 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.075217 } ], "others_margin": -0.371731 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.027089135721325874, "model_output": 0.0271, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0297 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0035 } ], "others": -0.0133, "total": 0.0271, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.362516 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.287643 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.222789 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.096538 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.089798 } ], "others_margin": -0.40252 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.054070789366960526, "model_output": 0.0541, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1427 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0036 } ], "others": -0.0248, "total": 0.0541, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.580537 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.410305 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.22601 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.15211 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.044339 } ], "others_margin": -0.377121 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.17826160788536072, "model_output": 0.1783, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3004 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2316 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0398 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0328 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0273 } ], "others": -0.1803, "total": 0.1783, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.300356 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.231601 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.039785 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.032757 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.027327 } ], "others_margin": -0.180378 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.840709686279297, "model_output": 6.8407, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0922 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0755 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0228, "total": 6.8407, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.092188 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.075545 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.021612 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.018174 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.008527 } ], "others_margin": -0.022776 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0117, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2732, "expected_assists": 0.0206, "assists": 0.0267, "assist_rate": 0.0267, "expected_goals": 0.0145, "goals": 0.0274, "goal_rate": 0.0274, "shots_on_target": 0.0547, "total_shots": 0.1804, "rating": 6.8407, "minutes": 21.96, "total_pass": 17.5431, "accurate_pass": 16.2535, "duels_won": 2.1999, "total_long_balls": 1.1625, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8099, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0794, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.691, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4637, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5625, "crosses_total": 0.0142, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.9262, "possession_lost": 1.8879, "dispossessed": 0.0519, "duels_lost": 1.09, "aerial_won": 0.293, "aerial_lost": 0.1326, "interceptions": 0.3401, "tackles_won": 0.6146, "tackles": 1.3037, "clearances": 0.518, "total_contest": 0.2307, "won_contest": 0.1361, "challenges_lost": 0.2282, "fouls": 0.6345, "fouls_drawn": 0.4672, "blocks": 0.6295, "big_chances_created": 0.0271, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4608, "total_progression": 31.0931, "progressive_carries": 0.5806, "shots_off_target": 0.1257 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0117, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0070)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2732, "expected_assists": 0.0206, "assists": 0.0265, "assist_rate": 0.0265, "expected_goals": 0.0145, "goals": 0.0272, "goal_rate": 0.0272, "shots_on_target": 0.0543, "total_shots": 0.1791, "rating": 6.8407, "minutes": 21.96, "total_pass": 17.5431, "accurate_pass": 16.2535, "duels_won": 2.1999, "total_long_balls": 1.1625, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8099, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0794, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.691, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4637, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5625, "crosses_total": 0.0141, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.9262, "possession_lost": 1.8879, "dispossessed": 0.0519, "duels_lost": 1.09, "aerial_won": 0.293, "aerial_lost": 0.1326, "interceptions": 0.3417, "tackles_won": 0.6129, "tackles": 1.3037, "clearances": 0.518, "total_contest": 0.2307, "won_contest": 0.1361, "challenges_lost": 0.2282, "fouls": 0.634, "fouls_drawn": 0.4639, "blocks": 0.6295, "big_chances_created": 0.0271, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4608, "total_progression": 31.0931, "progressive_carries": 0.5806, "shots_off_target": 0.1257 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.007, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.244, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.0 to 17.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2135, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "assists": 0.0207, "assist_rate": 0.0207, "expected_goals": 0.0113, "goals": 0.0213, "goal_rate": 0.0213, "shots_on_target": 0.0424, "total_shots": 0.1407, "rating": 6.8407, "minutes": 17.16, "total_pass": 13.7085, "accurate_pass": 12.7008, "duels_won": 1.719, "total_long_balls": 0.9084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6329, "total_own_half_passes": 5.532, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2285, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1766, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4723, "crosses_total": 0.011, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.915, "possession_lost": 1.4752, "dispossessed": 0.0519, "duels_lost": 0.8517, "aerial_won": 0.229, "aerial_lost": 0.1326, "interceptions": 0.267, "tackles_won": 0.4789, "tackles": 1.0187, "clearances": 0.4048, "total_contest": 0.1803, "won_contest": 0.1064, "challenges_lost": 0.2282, "fouls": 0.4954, "fouls_drawn": 0.3625, "blocks": 0.4919, 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"contribution": -0.1397 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0613 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0585 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0414 } ], "others": -0.1614, "total": 0.5501, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.449087 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.139688 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.061341 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.058526 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.041374 } ], "others_margin": -0.161346 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07099758833646774, "model_output": 0.071, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], 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"importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2887 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0292 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0198 } ], "others": 0.0151, "total": 0.4956, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.55919 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.073066 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.062301 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.043431 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.042117 } ], "others_margin": 0.030945 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.747036933898926, "model_output": 6.747, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.076 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0195 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": 0.0403, "total": 6.747, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.075973 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.019995 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.019462 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.010554 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.010388 } ], "others_margin": 0.040439 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0485, quality 0.893)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goals": 0.0577, "goal_rate": 0.0577, "shots_on_target": 0.2007, "total_shots": 0.5768, "expected_assists": 0.0744, "key_pass": 0.5197, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 24.18, "total_pass": 10.7551, "accurate_pass": 9.119, "duels_won": 3.4839, "total_long_balls": 0.3212, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1475, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.435, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7989, "crosses_total": 1.3797, "crosses_accurate": 0.3879, "touches": 20.2223, "possession_lost": 5.5751, "dispossessed": 0.4563, "duels_lost": 1.7975, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.7572, "won_contest": 1.8966, "ball_recovery": 0.7658, "challenges_lost": 0.2403, "fouls": 0.2403, "fouls_drawn": 1.4136, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, 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0.3879, "touches": 20.2223, "possession_lost": 5.5751, "dispossessed": 0.4563, "duels_lost": 1.7975, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.7572, "won_contest": 1.8966, "ball_recovery": 0.7658, "challenges_lost": 0.2403, "fouls": 0.2373, "fouls_drawn": 1.3957, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2827, "xgot": 0.0055, "offsides": 0.2791, "ball_carries": 7.8423, "total_progression": 38.729, "progressive_carries": 0.6164, "shots_off_target": 0.376 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0126, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2687, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.4136, "after": 1.3957 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5768, "after": 0.5695 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection 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0.4984, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 23.19, "total_pass": 10.3148, "accurate_pass": 8.7456, "duels_won": 3.3413, "total_long_balls": 0.308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1415, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0896, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5205, "crosses_total": 1.3251, "crosses_accurate": 0.372, "touches": 19.3943, "possession_lost": 5.3468, "dispossessed": 0.4563, "duels_lost": 1.7239, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.6443, "won_contest": 1.8189, "ball_recovery": 0.7344, "challenges_lost": 0.2403, "fouls": 0.2276, "fouls_drawn": 1.3386, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2711, "xgot": 0.0089, "offsides": 0.2791, "ball_carries": 7.5212, "total_progression": 37.1433, "progressive_carries": 0.5912, "shots_off_target": 0.3606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.828, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0418, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.394, "squad_xg_sum": 2.0121, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1242, "team_expected_assists": 2.2061, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6868, "xa_scale": 1.9624, "opponent_lambda": 1.744, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.756 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0505, "after": 0.0852 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0714, "after": 0.1401 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0852, "goal_rate": 0.0547, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1901, "total_shots": 0.5507, "expected_assists": 0.1401, "key_pass": 0.4984, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 23.19, "total_pass": 10.3148, "accurate_pass": 8.7456, "duels_won": 3.3413, "total_long_balls": 0.308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1415, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0896, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5205, "crosses_total": 1.3251, "crosses_accurate": 0.372, "touches": 19.3943, "possession_lost": 5.3468, "dispossessed": 0.4563, "duels_lost": 1.7239, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.6443, "won_contest": 1.8189, "ball_recovery": 0.7344, "challenges_lost": 0.2403, "fouls": 0.2276, "fouls_drawn": 1.3386, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2711, "xgot": 0.0089, "offsides": 0.2791, "ball_carries": 7.5212, "total_progression": 37.1433, "progressive_carries": 0.5912, "shots_off_target": 0.3606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.828, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0418, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1021, "fifa_rank": 210.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals 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1.1344, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5239 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.094 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0528 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0384 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0306 } ], "others": 0.0638, "total": 1.1344, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.52387 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.09404 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.052836 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.038358 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.030626 } ], "others_margin": 0.063737 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08058829605579376, "model_output": 0.0806, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.008 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0057 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0044 } ], "others": 0.0211, "total": 0.0806, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.339001 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.160952 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.12243 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.09858 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.076985 } ], "others_margin": 0.303267 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6582596898078918, "model_output": 0.6583, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2694 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0436 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0447 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0286 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0277 } ], "others": 0.1645, "total": 0.6583, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.510433 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.102401 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.094991 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.05648 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.054677 } ], "others_margin": 0.287641 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.918698787689209, "model_output": 6.9187, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.087 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0489 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0361 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.023 } ], "others": 0.1096, "total": 6.9187, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08697 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.048919 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.036065 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.025889 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.023043 } ], "others_margin": 0.109592 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0195, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1334, "goals": 0.1188, "goal_rate": 0.1188, "shots_on_target": 0.3724, "total_shots": 1.1566, "expected_assists": 0.0822, "key_pass": 0.6711, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 20.05, "total_pass": 9.4322, "accurate_pass": 8.6888, "duels_won": 1.9353, "total_long_balls": 0.1115, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8798, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1922, "crosses_total": 2.2662, "crosses_accurate": 0.5732, "touches": 17.4307, "possession_lost": 3.9833, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 1.7363, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 1.5415, "won_contest": 0.5732, "ball_recovery": 0.8409, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1329, "fouls_drawn": 0.6681, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4436, "tackles": 0.6941, "clearances": 0.1739, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0343, "big_chances_missed": 0.348, "xgot": 0.1122, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7871, "total_progression": 25.2491, "progressive_carries": 1.9769, "shots_off_target": 0.7842 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0195, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 19, "history_shrink": 0.2083, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.1 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1783, "goals": 0.1588, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.1099, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1499, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.79, "projection_minutes": 20.05, "minutes_scale": 1.3364, "appearance_probability": 0.627 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1783, "goals": 0.1588, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.1099, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1499, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.39 (squad xG sum 2.0121, xG scale 1.6868, xA scale 1.9624, team xA 2.21 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3008, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.2157, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.2529, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.828, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9146, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.394, "squad_xg_sum": 2.0121, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1242, "team_expected_assists": 2.2061, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6868, "xa_scale": 1.9624, "opponent_lambda": 1.744, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.627 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1783, "after": 0.3008 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1099, "after": 0.2157 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3008, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.2157, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.2529, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.828, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9146, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 303, "fifa_rank": 229.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3008, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.2157, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.2529, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.828, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1629, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9146, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1629, "scorer_weight": 0.1725, "squad_weight_total": 3.3755, "weight_share": 0.0511, "finishing_factor": 0.9146, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.3799, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.3799, "runner_up": "Vinícius Júnior", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4922 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.3799, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.5872, "runner_up": "Vinícius Júnior", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4922 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Vinícius Júnior", "weight": 0.4922, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4922, "runner_up": "Jude Bellingham", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3951 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3008, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.2157, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, 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1.0418, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 36, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0706, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416342, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0985, "expected_assists": 0.3043, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416331, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "expected_assists": 0.091, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416315, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0513, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416306, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0538, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1021, "combined_rank_score": 454.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 210.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.747, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yan Diomande", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Giovanni Di Lorenzo", "ranking": 1016 }, { "player_name": "Min-hyeok Kim", "ranking": 1017 }, { "player_name": "Tim Hartzell", "ranking": 1018 }, { "player_name": "Dae-kwang Lee", "ranking": 1019 }, { "player_name": "Stanislav Iljutcenko", "ranking": 1020 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Robin Roefs", "ranking": 1022 }, { "player_name": "Andrea Cambiaso", "ranking": 1023 }, { "player_name": "Clarismario", "ranking": 1024 }, { "player_name": "Milan Obradović", "ranking": 1025 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Carreras", "ranking": 1026 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.695, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.695, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.756, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0485, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 3.0, "minutes_per_sub": 20.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0467 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (7 historical appearances) to 23.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.76); FBref playing time empirical prior: 3.0 sub appearances, 20.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0503, "goals": 0.055, "goal_rate": 0.055, "shots_on_target": 0.1915, "total_shots": 0.5501, "expected_assists": 0.071, "key_pass": 0.4956, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 24.18, "total_pass": 10.2576, "accurate_pass": 8.6972, "duels_won": 3.3227, "total_long_balls": 0.3063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1407, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0448, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4844, "crosses_total": 1.3159, "crosses_accurate": 0.37, "touches": 19.2869, "possession_lost": 5.3172, "dispossessed": 0.4352, "duels_lost": 1.7144, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.6297, "won_contest": 1.8089, "ball_recovery": 0.7304, "challenges_lost": 0.2292, "fouls": 0.2292, "fouls_drawn": 1.3482, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2696, "xgot": 0.0052, "offsides": 0.2696, "ball_carries": 7.4795, "total_progression": 36.9375, "progressive_carries": 0.5879, "shots_off_target": 0.3586 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:06:30.670657+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 36.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0403, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 12.5541, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 9.9371, "accuratePass": 13.2778, "totalShots": 0.5679 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.05026797950267792, "model_output": 0.0503, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0815 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0047 } ], "others": -0.0288, "total": 0.0503, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.52731 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.198328 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.082528 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.058026 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.058017 } ], "others_margin": -0.451499 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.05502922460436821, "model_output": 0.055, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0831 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0059 } ], "others": -0.0214, "total": 0.055, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.523687 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.191552 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.097141 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.093252 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.074123 } ], "others_margin": -0.329271 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1914612501859665, "model_output": 0.1915, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2132 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0137 } ], "others": -0.0485, "total": 0.1915, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.505849 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.113223 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.069393 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.061188 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.055483 } ], "others_margin": -0.226139 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5500918626785278, "model_output": 0.5501, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4491 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1397 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0613 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0585 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0414 } ], "others": -0.1614, "total": 0.5501, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.449087 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.139688 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.061341 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.058526 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.041374 } ], "others_margin": -0.161346 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07099758833646774, "model_output": 0.071, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0059 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0041 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0031 } ], "others": 0.0127, "total": 0.071, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.385058 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.159379 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.10921 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.068727 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.051616 } ], "others_margin": 0.198702 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.495648056268692, "model_output": 0.4956, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2887 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0292 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0198 } ], "others": 0.0151, "total": 0.4956, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.55919 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.073066 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.062301 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.043431 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.042117 } ], "others_margin": 0.030945 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.747036933898926, "model_output": 6.747, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.076 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0195 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": 0.0403, "total": 6.747, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.075973 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.019995 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.019462 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.010554 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.010388 } ], "others_margin": 0.040439 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0485, quality 0.893)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goals": 0.0577, "goal_rate": 0.0577, "shots_on_target": 0.2007, "total_shots": 0.5768, "expected_assists": 0.0744, "key_pass": 0.5197, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 24.18, "total_pass": 10.7551, "accurate_pass": 9.119, "duels_won": 3.4839, "total_long_balls": 0.3212, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1475, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.435, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7989, "crosses_total": 1.3797, "crosses_accurate": 0.3879, "touches": 20.2223, "possession_lost": 5.5751, "dispossessed": 0.4563, "duels_lost": 1.7975, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.7572, "won_contest": 1.8966, "ball_recovery": 0.7658, "challenges_lost": 0.2403, "fouls": 0.2403, "fouls_drawn": 1.4136, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2827, "xgot": 0.0055, "offsides": 0.2827, "ball_carries": 7.8423, "total_progression": 38.729, "progressive_carries": 0.6164, "shots_off_target": 0.376 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 99000000, "quality_factor": 0.893, "boost_factor": 1.0485, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0126)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goals": 0.057, "goal_rate": 0.057, "shots_on_target": 0.1982, "total_shots": 0.5695, "expected_assists": 0.0744, "key_pass": 0.5197, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 24.18, "total_pass": 10.7551, "accurate_pass": 9.119, "duels_won": 3.4839, "total_long_balls": 0.3212, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1475, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.435, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7989, "crosses_total": 1.3817, "crosses_accurate": 0.3879, "touches": 20.2223, "possession_lost": 5.5751, "dispossessed": 0.4563, "duels_lost": 1.7975, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.7572, "won_contest": 1.8966, "ball_recovery": 0.7658, "challenges_lost": 0.2403, "fouls": 0.2373, "fouls_drawn": 1.3957, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2827, "xgot": 0.0055, "offsides": 0.2791, "ball_carries": 7.8423, "total_progression": 38.729, "progressive_carries": 0.6164, "shots_off_target": 0.376 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0126, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2687, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.4136, "after": 1.3957 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5768, "after": 0.5695 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.2 to 23.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.76)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0505, "goals": 0.0547, "goal_rate": 0.0547, "shots_on_target": 0.1901, "total_shots": 0.5507, "expected_assists": 0.0714, "key_pass": 0.4984, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 23.19, "total_pass": 10.3148, "accurate_pass": 8.7456, "duels_won": 3.3413, "total_long_balls": 0.308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1415, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0896, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5205, "crosses_total": 1.3251, "crosses_accurate": 0.372, "touches": 19.3943, "possession_lost": 5.3468, "dispossessed": 0.4563, "duels_lost": 1.7239, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.6443, "won_contest": 1.8189, "ball_recovery": 0.7344, "challenges_lost": 0.2403, "fouls": 0.2276, "fouls_drawn": 1.3386, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2711, "xgot": 0.0053, "offsides": 0.2791, "ball_carries": 7.5212, "total_progression": 37.1433, "progressive_carries": 0.5912, "shots_off_target": 0.3606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.19, "projection_minutes": 24.18, "minutes_scale": 0.9591, "appearance_probability": 0.756 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0505, "goals": 0.0547, "goal_rate": 0.0547, "shots_on_target": 0.1901, "total_shots": 0.5507, "expected_assists": 0.0714, "key_pass": 0.4984, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 23.19, "total_pass": 10.3148, "accurate_pass": 8.7456, "duels_won": 3.3413, "total_long_balls": 0.308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1415, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0896, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5205, "crosses_total": 1.3251, "crosses_accurate": 0.372, "touches": 19.3943, "possession_lost": 5.3468, "dispossessed": 0.4563, "duels_lost": 1.7239, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.6443, "won_contest": 1.8189, "ball_recovery": 0.7344, "challenges_lost": 0.2403, "fouls": 0.2276, "fouls_drawn": 1.3386, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2711, "xgot": 0.0053, "offsides": 0.2791, "ball_carries": 7.5212, "total_progression": 37.1433, "progressive_carries": 0.5912, "shots_off_target": 0.3606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.39 (squad xG sum 2.0121, xG scale 1.6868, xA scale 1.9624, team xA 2.21 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0852, "goal_rate": 0.0547, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1901, "total_shots": 0.5507, "expected_assists": 0.1401, "key_pass": 0.4984, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 23.19, "total_pass": 10.3148, "accurate_pass": 8.7456, "duels_won": 3.3413, "total_long_balls": 0.308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1415, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0896, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5205, "crosses_total": 1.3251, "crosses_accurate": 0.372, "touches": 19.3943, "possession_lost": 5.3468, "dispossessed": 0.4563, "duels_lost": 1.7239, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.6443, "won_contest": 1.8189, "ball_recovery": 0.7344, "challenges_lost": 0.2403, "fouls": 0.2276, "fouls_drawn": 1.3386, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2711, "xgot": 0.0089, "offsides": 0.2791, "ball_carries": 7.5212, "total_progression": 37.1433, "progressive_carries": 0.5912, "shots_off_target": 0.3606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.828, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0418, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.394, "squad_xg_sum": 2.0121, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1242, "team_expected_assists": 2.2061, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6868, "xa_scale": 1.9624, "opponent_lambda": 1.744, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.756 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0505, "after": 0.0852 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0714, "after": 0.1401 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0852, "goal_rate": 0.0547, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1901, "total_shots": 0.5507, "expected_assists": 0.1401, "key_pass": 0.4984, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 23.19, "total_pass": 10.3148, "accurate_pass": 8.7456, "duels_won": 3.3413, "total_long_balls": 0.308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1415, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0896, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5205, "crosses_total": 1.3251, "crosses_accurate": 0.372, "touches": 19.3943, "possession_lost": 5.3468, "dispossessed": 0.4563, "duels_lost": 1.7239, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.6443, "won_contest": 1.8189, "ball_recovery": 0.7344, "challenges_lost": 0.2403, "fouls": 0.2276, "fouls_drawn": 1.3386, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2711, "xgot": 0.0089, "offsides": 0.2791, "ball_carries": 7.5212, "total_progression": 37.1433, "progressive_carries": 0.5912, "shots_off_target": 0.3606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.828, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0418, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1021, "fifa_rank": 210.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals 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7.5212, "total_progression": 37.1433, "progressive_carries": 0.5912, "shots_off_target": 0.3606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.828, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0617, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0418, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0617, "scorer_weight": 0.0671, "squad_weight_total": 3.3755, "weight_share": 0.0199, "finishing_factor": 1.0418, "appearance_weight": 0.756, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.3799, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.3799, "runner_up": "Vinícius Júnior", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4922 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.3799, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.5872, "runner_up": "Vinícius Júnior", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4922 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Vinícius Júnior", "weight": 0.4922, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4922, "runner_up": "Jude Bellingham", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3951 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0852, "goal_rate": 0.0547, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1901, "total_shots": 0.5507, "expected_assists": 0.1401, "key_pass": 0.4984, "rating": 6.747, "minutes": 23.19, "total_pass": 10.3148, "accurate_pass": 8.7456, "duels_won": 3.3413, "total_long_balls": 0.308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1415, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0896, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5205, "crosses_total": 1.3251, "crosses_accurate": 0.372, "touches": 19.3943, "possession_lost": 5.3468, "dispossessed": 0.4563, "duels_lost": 1.7239, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.6443, "won_contest": 1.8189, "ball_recovery": 0.7344, "challenges_lost": 0.2403, "fouls": 0.2276, "fouls_drawn": 1.3386, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2711, "xgot": 0.0089, "offsides": 0.2791, "ball_carries": 7.5212, "total_progression": 37.1433, "progressive_carries": 0.5912, "shots_off_target": 0.3606, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.756, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.828, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", 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"stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3008, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.2157, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2529, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 34, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 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"tackles": 0.6941, "clearances": 0.1739, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0343, "big_chances_missed": 0.348, "xgot": 0.1122, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7871, "total_progression": 25.2491, "progressive_carries": 1.9769, "shots_off_target": 0.7842 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0195, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 19, "history_shrink": 0.2083, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.1 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1783, "goals": 0.1588, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.1099, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1499, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.79, "projection_minutes": 20.05, "minutes_scale": 1.3364, "appearance_probability": 0.627 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1783, "goals": 0.1588, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.1099, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1499, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.39 (squad xG sum 2.0121, xG scale 1.6868, xA scale 1.9624, team xA 2.21 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3008, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.2157, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.2529, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.828, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9146, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.394, "squad_xg_sum": 2.0121, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1242, "team_expected_assists": 2.2061, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6868, "xa_scale": 1.9624, "opponent_lambda": 1.744, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.627 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1783, "after": 0.3008 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1099, "after": 0.2157 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3008, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.2157, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.2529, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.828, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9146, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 303, "fifa_rank": 229.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3008, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.2157, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.2529, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.828, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1629, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9146, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1629, "scorer_weight": 0.1725, "squad_weight_total": 3.3755, "weight_share": 0.0511, "finishing_factor": 0.9146, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.3799, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.3799, "runner_up": "Vinícius Júnior", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4922 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 1.3799, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.5872, "runner_up": "Vinícius Júnior", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4922 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Vinícius Júnior", "weight": 0.4922, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4922, "runner_up": "Jude Bellingham", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3951 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3008, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.2157, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.2529, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.828, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1629, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1217, "finishing_factor": 0.9146, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1217, "provider_weight": 0.1082, "squad_weight_total": 2.3369, "weight_share": 0.0463, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Vinícius Júnior", "weight": 0.431, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.431, "runner_up": "Kylian Mbappé", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4214 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 0.4214, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4214, "runner_up": "Arda Güler", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4024 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 3, "expected_goals": 3.39, "expected_assists": 2.21, "total_shots": 20, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 532, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 7.07, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9 } }, "Villarreal": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Péter Gulácsi": { "player_id": 37096, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 190, "market_value": 970000, "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.0741, "rating": 6.9305, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 24, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 36, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.5605, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 1.8038, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 3.1574, "shots_faced": 32.2, "expected_saves": 7.88, "high_pressure_saves": 2.72, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416294, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 33, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "goals_prevented": -0.4904 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0784 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 10, "goals_prevented": 1.96 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 616, "combined_rank_score": 318.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 409.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9305, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Péter Gulácsi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mender García", "ranking": 611 }, { "player_name": "José Fajardo", "ranking": 612 }, { "player_name": "Konstantinos Fortounis", "ranking": 613 }, { "player_name": "N'Golo Kanté", "ranking": 614 }, { "player_name": "Mason Greenwood", "ranking": 615 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Oliver Baumann", "ranking": 617 }, { "player_name": "Iñigo Martínez", "ranking": 618 }, { "player_name": "Omar Marmoush", "ranking": 619 }, { "player_name": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "ranking": 620 }, { "player_name": "Riccardo Orsolini", "ranking": 621 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], 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"goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.0769, "save_contribution": 3.1425, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.7279 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.437415838241577, "model_output": 2.4374, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0362 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9286, "items": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1624 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0851 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0789 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.073 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0234 } ], "others": -0.0684, "total": 2.4374, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.074537, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.057051 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.03123 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.029879 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.028444 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.009284 } ], "others_margin": -0.027711 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.07503017783164978, "model_output": -0.075, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0385 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0166, "items": [ { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0838 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": -0.061 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0313 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0204 } ], "others": -0.0444, "total": -0.075, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.083844 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": -0.06097 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.031297 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.025941 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.020432 } ], "others_margin": -0.044484 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.930525302886963, "model_output": 6.9305, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0486 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0452 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0216 } ], "others": -0.0461, "total": 6.9305, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.009122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.048576 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.045236 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.027827 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": -0.022924 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.021605 } ], "others_margin": -0.04611 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9873, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.4065, "goals_prevented": -0.0741, "rating": 6.9305, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.9846, "accurate_pass": 24.1808, "total_long_balls": 4.6525, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8487, "touches": 35.6944, "clearances": 2.6443, "ball_recovery": 6.2673, "high_claims": 0.5732, "punches": 1.5605, "aerial_won": 0.6611, "sweeper_actions": 1.706, "sweeper_accurate": 1.706, "saves_inside_box": 2.4956, "possession_lost": 1.8038, "duels_won": 0.6611, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5645, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.1808 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 970000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9873, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.4065, "goals_prevented": -0.0741, "rating": 6.9305, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.9846, "accurate_pass": 24.1808, "total_long_balls": 4.6525, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8487, "touches": 35.6944, "clearances": 2.6443, "ball_recovery": 6.2673, "high_claims": 0.5732, "punches": 1.5605, "aerial_won": 0.6611, "sweeper_actions": 1.706, "sweeper_accurate": 1.706, "saves_inside_box": 2.4956, "possession_lost": 1.8038, "duels_won": 0.6611, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5645, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.1808 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.4065, 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"high_pressure_saves": 2.72, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.744, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2479, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1061, "team_expected_assists": 1.3952, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3975, "xa_scale": 1.2613, "opponent_lambda": 3.394, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 30.0, "after": 32.2 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 7.34, "after": 7.88 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 2.53, "after": 2.72 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "saves": 2.4065, "goals_prevented": -0.0741, "rating": 6.9305, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.9846, "accurate_pass": 24.1808, "total_long_balls": 4.6525, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8487, "touches": 35.6944, "clearances": 2.6443, "ball_recovery": 6.2673, "high_claims": 0.5732, "punches": 1.5605, "aerial_won": 0.6611, "sweeper_actions": 1.706, "sweeper_accurate": 1.706, "saves_inside_box": 2.4956, "possession_lost": 1.8038, "duels_won": 0.6611, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5645, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.1808, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 3.1574, "shots_faced": 32.2, "expected_saves": 7.88, "high_pressure_saves": 2.72, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, 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"Renato Veiga", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1341, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ] } ] } } ] }, "Santiago Mouriño": { "player_id": 1468046, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 186, "market_value": 19400000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8134, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 39, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 70, "possession_lost": 10.5377, "dispossessed": 0.6775, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0221, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0194, "assists": 0, 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20.5168, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7181, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7458, "crosses_total": 0.275, "crosses_accurate": 0.1096, "touches": 69.7931, "possession_lost": 10.5377, "dispossessed": 0.6775, "duels_lost": 6.1643, "aerial_lost": 1.0995, "total_contest": 0.9694, "won_contest": 0.5318, "ball_recovery": 5.2238, "challenges_lost": 2.2715, "fouls": 1.6976, "fouls_drawn": 1.1589, "blocks": 0.3618, "goals": 0.0221, "goal_rate": 0.0221, "assists": 0.0194, "assist_rate": 0.0194, "expected_goals": 0.0345, "expected_assists": 0.0679, "shots_on_target": 0.1628, "big_chances_created": 0.1356, "xgot": 0.035, "ball_carries": 15.3357, "total_progression": 62.3741, "progressive_carries": 0.8995, "key_pass": 0.5198, "shots_off_target": 0.3454 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0144, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9192, "prior_reliability": 0.1733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.3869, "after": 1.4077 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.9977, "after": 0.9884 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.2687, "after": 0.275 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.6914, "after": 1.6976 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9884, "tackles": 1.9538, "tackles_won": 1.4077, "clearances": 3.5152, "aerial_won": 1.3494, "total_shots": 0.5083, "rating": 6.8134, "minutes": 82.73, "total_pass": 45.6743, "accurate_pass": 39.2627, "duels_won": 6.268, "total_long_balls": 3.3525, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3787, "total_own_half_passes": 22.9562, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5168, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7181, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7458, "crosses_total": 0.275, "crosses_accurate": 0.1096, "touches": 69.7931, "possession_lost": 10.5377, "dispossessed": 0.6775, "duels_lost": 6.1643, "aerial_lost": 1.0995, "total_contest": 0.9694, "won_contest": 0.5318, 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"role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9969, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.289, "goals": 0.3409, "goal_rate": 0.3409, "shots_on_target": 0.8811, "total_shots": 2.054, "expected_assists": 0.1325, "key_pass": 1.4301, "rating": 7.0834, "minutes": 76.68, "total_pass": 34.3378, "accurate_pass": 28.3099, "duels_won": 3.5465, "total_long_balls": 2.4262, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4632, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.4969, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5615, "crosses_total": 1.0721, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 47.3995, "possession_lost": 10.4515, "dispossessed": 0.6842, "duels_lost": 3.1774, "aerial_lost": 0.4633, "total_contest": 2.2328, "won_contest": 1.4508, "ball_recovery": 1.838, "challenges_lost": 0.773, "fouls": 0.641, "fouls_drawn": 0.7309, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1268, "tackles_won": 0.3774, "tackles": 0.5771, "clearances": 1.0212, "blocks": 0.0161, "big_chances_created": 0.3536, "big_chances_missed": 0.2678, "xgot": 0.4008, "offsides": 0.6013, "ball_carries": 14.2756, "total_progression": 41.0007, "progressive_carries": 1.053, "shots_off_target": 1.1729 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9969, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0098)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.289, "goals": 0.3431, "goal_rate": 0.3431, "shots_on_target": 0.8836, "total_shots": 2.0562, "expected_assists": 0.1325, "key_pass": 1.4301, "rating": 7.0834, "minutes": 76.68, "total_pass": 34.3378, "accurate_pass": 28.3099, "duels_won": 3.5465, "total_long_balls": 2.4262, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4632, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.4969, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5615, "crosses_total": 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0.0161, "big_chances_created": 0.3536, "big_chances_missed": 0.2678, "xgot": 0.4008, "offsides": 0.601, "ball_carries": 14.2756, "total_progression": 41.0007, "progressive_carries": 1.053, "shots_off_target": 1.1729 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2208, "goals": 0.2621, "goal_rate": 0.2621, "shots_on_target": 0.6751, "total_shots": 1.5712, "expected_assists": 0.1325, "key_pass": 1.4301, "rating": 7.0834, "minutes": 76.68, "total_pass": 34.3378, "accurate_pass": 28.3099, "duels_won": 3.5465, "total_long_balls": 2.4262, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4632, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.4969, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5615, "crosses_total": 1.0671, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 47.3995, "possession_lost": 10.4515, "dispossessed": 0.6842, "duels_lost": 3.1774, "aerial_lost": 0.4633, 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"opponent_faced": "Ibrahima Konaté, Antonio Rüdiger", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.764, "skill_edge": -0.1086, "height_edge": -0.052, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.6787, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ibrahima Konaté", "market_value": 46000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8555 }, { "player": "Antonio Rüdiger", "market_value": 6200000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5019 } ], "xg_override": 0.2208 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0565, "after": 1.5712 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1729, "after": 0.8961 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8836, "after": 0.6751 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.4008, "after": 0.3062 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3431, "after": 0.2621 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.289, "after": 0.2208 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2678, "after": 0.2046 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.74 (squad xG sum 1.2479, xG scale 1.3975, xA scale 1.2613, team xA 1.40 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3086, "goal_rate": 0.2621, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6751, "total_shots": 1.5712, "expected_assists": 0.1671, "key_pass": 1.4301, "rating": 7.0834, "minutes": 76.68, "total_pass": 34.3378, "accurate_pass": 28.3099, "duels_won": 3.5465, "total_long_balls": 2.4262, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4632, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.4969, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5615, "crosses_total": 1.0671, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 47.3995, "possession_lost": 10.4515, "dispossessed": 0.6842, "duels_lost": 3.1774, "aerial_lost": 0.4633, "total_contest": 2.2328, "won_contest": 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1.4632, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.4969, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5615, "crosses_total": 1.0671, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 47.3995, "possession_lost": 10.4515, "dispossessed": 0.6842, "duels_lost": 3.1774, "aerial_lost": 0.4633, "total_contest": 2.2328, "won_contest": 1.4508, "ball_recovery": 1.838, "challenges_lost": 0.773, "fouls": 0.6515, "fouls_drawn": 0.7237, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1256, "tackles_won": 0.3793, "tackles": 0.5771, "clearances": 1.0212, "blocks": 0.0161, "big_chances_created": 0.3536, "big_chances_missed": 0.2046, "xgot": 0.4279, "offsides": 0.601, "ball_carries": 14.2756, "total_progression": 41.0007, "progressive_carries": 1.053, "shots_off_target": 0.8961, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.764, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", 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"runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4407 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3086, "goal_rate": 0.2621, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6751, "total_shots": 1.5712, "expected_assists": 0.1671, "key_pass": 1.4301, "rating": 7.0834, "minutes": 76.68, "total_pass": 34.3378, "accurate_pass": 28.3099, "duels_won": 3.5465, "total_long_balls": 2.4262, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4632, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.4969, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5615, "crosses_total": 1.0671, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 47.3995, "possession_lost": 10.4515, "dispossessed": 0.6842, "duels_lost": 3.1774, "aerial_lost": 0.4633, "total_contest": 2.2328, "won_contest": 1.4508, "ball_recovery": 1.838, "challenges_lost": 0.773, "fouls": 0.6515, "fouls_drawn": 0.7237, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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0.3171, "tackles": 0.8582, "clearances": 0.2139, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3829, "big_chances_missed": 1.2344, "xgot": 0.3311, "offsides": 0.1343, "ball_carries": 7.935, "total_progression": 23.2948, "progressive_carries": 0.9458, "shots_off_target": 1.2278 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5400000, "quality_factor": 0.4671, "boost_factor": 0.9985, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0094)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.377, "goals": 0.4069, "goal_rate": 0.4069, "shots_on_target": 1.0101, "total_shots": 2.2396, "expected_assists": 0.0681, "key_pass": 0.7869, "rating": 6.7972, "minutes": 67.77, "total_pass": 15.4433, "accurate_pass": 11.6095, "duels_won": 3.4696, "total_long_balls": 0.9174, "accurate_long_balls": 0.678, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7392, "crosses_total": 0.2298, 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0.0321 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0285 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0258 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.017 } ], "others": -0.0413, "total": 0.2085, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.311161 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126788 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.111596 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.101578 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.065677 } ], "others_margin": -0.180584 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6473124027252197, "model_output": 0.6473, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2646 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1281 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0513 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0232 } ], "others": -0.0948, "total": 0.6473, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.264594 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128106 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.051349 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.037382 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.023174 } ], "others_margin": -0.094759 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9146013259887695, "model_output": 6.9146, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0856 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0298 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0207 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0164 } ], "others": -0.0238, "total": 6.9146, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.085555 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.030199 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.029763 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.020713 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016411 } ], "others_margin": -0.02369 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9999, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8709, "expected_assists": 0.0769, "assists": 0.0641, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "expected_goals": 0.0503, "goals": 0.0461, "goal_rate": 0.0461, "shots_on_target": 0.2085, "total_shots": 0.6473, "rating": 6.9146, "minutes": 73.0, "total_pass": 46.2562, "accurate_pass": 41.007, "duels_won": 3.1728, "total_long_balls": 2.4571, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7711, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5698, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.1929, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.6863, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.8141, "crosses_total": 0.2871, "crosses_accurate": 0.1515, "touches": 58.1837, "possession_lost": 7.3375, "dispossessed": 0.4155, "duels_lost": 3.9247, "aerial_won": 0.3066, "aerial_lost": 0.7099, "interceptions": 1.4243, "tackles_won": 0.9018, "tackles": 1.3059, "clearances": 1.348, "total_contest": 0.5662, "won_contest": 0.3356, "challenges_lost": 0.9331, "fouls": 1.6552, "fouls_drawn": 1.2247, "blocks": 0.3981, "big_chances_created": 0.0485, "big_chances_missed": 0.1911, "xgot": 0.1208, "ball_carries": 14.2735, "total_progression": 45.1476, "progressive_carries": 0.9187, "shots_off_target": 0.4388 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 0.9999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0106)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8709, "expected_assists": 0.0769, "assists": 0.0634, "assist_rate": 0.0634, "expected_goals": 0.0503, "goals": 0.0456, "goal_rate": 0.0456, "shots_on_target": 0.2063, "total_shots": 0.6404, "rating": 6.9146, "minutes": 73.0, "total_pass": 46.2562, "accurate_pass": 41.007, "duels_won": 3.1728, "total_long_balls": 2.4571, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7711, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5698, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.1929, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.6863, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.8141, "crosses_total": 0.2841, "crosses_accurate": 0.1515, "touches": 58.1837, "possession_lost": 7.3375, "dispossessed": 0.4155, "duels_lost": 3.9247, "aerial_won": 0.3066, "aerial_lost": 0.7099, "interceptions": 1.4209, "tackles_won": 0.9079, "tackles": 1.3059, "clearances": 1.348, "total_contest": 0.5662, "won_contest": 0.3356, "challenges_lost": 0.9331, "fouls": 1.6611, "fouls_drawn": 1.2156, "blocks": 0.3981, "big_chances_created": 0.0485, "big_chances_missed": 0.1911, "xgot": 0.1208, "ball_carries": 14.2735, "total_progression": 45.1476, "progressive_carries": 0.9187, "shots_off_target": 0.4388 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0106, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8111, "prior_reliability": 0.1467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", 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"margin": 0.122382 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.119881 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.050079 } ], "others_margin": 0.081939 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.0542552471160889, "model_output": 1.0543, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2157 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0545 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0541 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0483 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0401 } ], "others": 0.0642, "total": 1.0543, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.277712 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.059454 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.055705 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.049624 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.041379 } ], "others_margin": 0.062767 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.920002460479736, "model_output": 6.92, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0667 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0311 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0154 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0141 } ], "others": 0.0499, "total": 6.92, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.066728 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.031149 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.019379 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.015399 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.014098 } ], "others_margin": 0.049848 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0015, quality 0.535)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1117, "goals": 0.1608, "goal_rate": 0.1608, "shots_on_target": 0.4827, "total_shots": 1.3564, "expected_assists": 0.1297, "key_pass": 1.0558, "rating": 6.92, "minutes": 73.29, "total_pass": 22.3299, "accurate_pass": 18.2392, "duels_won": 6.0417, "total_long_balls": 1.1053, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6712, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1499, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.602, "crosses_total": 3.4143, "crosses_accurate": 0.4548, "touches": 43.6145, "possession_lost": 14.2916, "dispossessed": 1.9608, "duels_lost": 5.1131, "aerial_lost": 0.1876, "total_contest": 4.4348, "won_contest": 2.5998, "ball_recovery": 2.2526, "challenges_lost": 0.4049, "fouls": 0.7246, "fouls_drawn": 2.2615, "assists": 0.3338, "assist_rate": 0.3338, "interceptions": 0.1433, "tackles_won": 0.6032, "tackles": 1.1805, "clearances": 0.3456, "blocks": 0.0835, "big_chances_created": 0.6138, "big_chances_missed": 0.0933, "xgot": 0.1297, "offsides": 0.0941, "ball_carries": 18.2466, "total_progression": 97.6341, "progressive_carries": 3.5842, "shots_off_target": 0.8737 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11100000, "quality_factor": 0.5353, "boost_factor": 1.0015, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0035)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1117, "goals": 0.1602, "goal_rate": 0.1602, "shots_on_target": 0.481, "total_shots": 1.3517, "expected_assists": 0.1297, "key_pass": 1.0558, "rating": 6.92, "minutes": 73.29, "total_pass": 22.3299, "accurate_pass": 18.2392, "duels_won": 6.0417, "total_long_balls": 1.1053, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6712, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1499, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.602, 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"season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2148, "combined_rank_score": 810.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 653.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7387, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 967.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7838, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sergi Cardona", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Álvaro Valles", "ranking": 2143 }, { "player_name": "Lazar Samardžić", "ranking": 2144 }, { "player_name": "Giovanny Avalos", "ranking": 2145 }, { "player_name": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "ranking": 2146 }, { "player_name": "Breel Embolo", "ranking": 2147 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kim Geon-oh", "ranking": 2149 }, { "player_name": "Ben Chilwell", "ranking": 2150 }, { "player_name": "Nicholas Duarte", 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.282673 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124499 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.092842 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.065433 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.059232 } ], "others_margin": -0.139801 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.621411919593811, "model_output": 0.6214, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0759 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0618 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0334 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0159 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0235, "total": 0.6214, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.075895 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061817 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.033448 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.015876 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.013238 } ], "others_margin": -0.023518 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.783811092376709, "model_output": 6.7838, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0319 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0101 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0193, "total": 6.7838, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.031863 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023079 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.010123 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.009553 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.00866 } ], "others_margin": -0.019334 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 23, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0000, quality 0.506)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1668, "tackles": 1.949, "tackles_won": 1.3788, "clearances": 2.5077, "aerial_won": 0.8254, "total_shots": 0.6214, "rating": 6.7838, "minutes": 88.15, "total_pass": 45.7508, "accurate_pass": 39.1098, "duels_won": 4.3694, "total_long_balls": 2.6132, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8702, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0744, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.4928, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6764, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.617, "crosses_total": 3.1708, "crosses_accurate": 0.5445, "touches": 72.6264, "possession_lost": 13.1073, "dispossessed": 0.4793, "duels_lost": 4.2671, "aerial_lost": 0.4287, "total_contest": 1.0555, "won_contest": 0.2841, "ball_recovery": 3.6441, "challenges_lost": 1.3164, "fouls": 1.2796, "fouls_drawn": 1.1295, "blocks": 0.2941, "goals": 0.058, 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1.1668, "tackles": 1.949, "tackles_won": 1.3788, "clearances": 2.5077, "aerial_won": 0.8254, "total_shots": 0.6214, "rating": 6.7838, "minutes": 88.15, "total_pass": 45.7508, "accurate_pass": 39.1098, "duels_won": 4.3694, "total_long_balls": 2.6132, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8702, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0744, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.4928, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6764, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.617, "crosses_total": 3.1708, "crosses_accurate": 0.5445, "touches": 72.6264, "possession_lost": 13.1073, "dispossessed": 0.4793, "duels_lost": 4.2671, "aerial_lost": 0.4287, "total_contest": 1.0555, "won_contest": 0.2841, "ball_recovery": 3.6441, "challenges_lost": 1.3164, "fouls": 1.2796, "fouls_drawn": 1.1295, "blocks": 0.2941, "goals": 0.058, "goal_rate": 0.058, "assists": 0.0133, "assist_rate": 0.0133, "expected_goals": 0.0357, "expected_assists": 0.1136, "shots_on_target": 0.1965, "big_chances_created": 0.1938, "xgot": 0.0216, "ball_carries": 14.9956, 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for display (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1668, "tackles": 1.949, "tackles_won": 1.3788, "clearances": 2.5077, "aerial_won": 0.8254, "total_shots": 0.6214, "rating": 6.7838, "minutes": 88.15, "total_pass": 45.7508, "accurate_pass": 39.1098, "duels_won": 4.3694, "total_long_balls": 2.6132, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8702, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0744, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.4928, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6764, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.617, "crosses_total": 3.1708, "crosses_accurate": 0.5445, "touches": 72.6264, "possession_lost": 13.1073, "dispossessed": 0.4793, "duels_lost": 4.2671, "aerial_lost": 0.4287, "total_contest": 1.0555, "won_contest": 0.2841, "ball_recovery": 3.6441, "challenges_lost": 1.3164, "fouls": 1.2796, "fouls_drawn": 1.1295, "blocks": 0.2941, "goal_rate": 0.058, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0133, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0499, "expected_assists": 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0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2685 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2473 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0329 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.029 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0258 } ], "others": -0.0385, "total": 0.4991, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.268549 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.247277 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.032907 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.029036 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.02579 } ], "others_margin": -0.038464 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.813767433166504, "model_output": 6.8138, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0411 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.013 } ], "others": -0.0155, "total": 6.8138, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.04106 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.022064 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.018679 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013272 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.013038 } ], "others_margin": -0.015579 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3313, "combined_rank_score": 1271.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1965.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6947, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Logan Costa", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Luca Ranieri", "ranking": 3308 }, { "player_name": "Răzvan Marin", "ranking": 3309 }, { "player_name": "Diego Coppola", "ranking": 3310 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Rosario", "ranking": 3311 }, { "player_name": "Víctor Gómez", "ranking": 3312 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Santiago Ascacíbar", "ranking": 3314 }, { "player_name": "Rio Ngumoha", "ranking": 3315 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Walker-Peters", "ranking": 3316 }, { "player_name": "Alberto Costa", "ranking": 3317 }, { "player_name": "Tajon Buchanan", "ranking": 3318 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.116228879425961, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.32346494906481643, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0131, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (3 historical appearances) to 14.1 expected mins 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"contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.011 } ], "others": -0.0336, "total": 0.3079, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.783192 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.061409 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.053762 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.051384 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.032752 } ], "others_margin": -0.103543 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.0257186889648438, "model_output": 1.0257, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1441 }, { "name": 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"base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8093 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.191 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0416 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0353 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0325 } ], "others": 0.0444, "total": 0.3873, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.880967 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.405621 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.115249 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.098609 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.090555 } ], "others_margin": 0.121562 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.20903044939041138, "model_output": 0.209, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2332 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0132 } ], "others": -0.034, "total": 0.209, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.233153 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.018193 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.016831 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.016687 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.013184 } ], "others_margin": -0.034101 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.694717884063721, "model_output": 6.6947, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": 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"role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0131, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3045, "tackles": 0.4963, "tackles_won": 0.3119, "clearances": 1.0392, "aerial_won": 0.3923, "total_shots": 0.2118, "rating": 6.6947, "minutes": 16.04, "total_pass": 28.5794, "accurate_pass": 26.6695, "duels_won": 0.7285, "total_long_balls": 1.7505, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3567, "total_own_half_passes": 17.3291, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.2067, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4628, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.8243, "possession_lost": 2.3039, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2846, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3567, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2846, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3938, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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{ "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0446 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0102 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0069 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0066 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0037 } ], "others": -0.0062, "total": 0.071, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.639531 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.185883 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.108499 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.094151 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.048682 } ], "others_margin": -0.082329 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.09721723943948746, "model_output": 0.0972, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0102 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.011 } ], "others": -0.0081, "total": 0.0972, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.444932 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.15326 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.143421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.114519 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.109783 } ], "others_margin": -0.080444 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2358749508857727, "model_output": 0.2359, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1643 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0383 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0058, "total": 0.2359, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.707715 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.215058 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.090527 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.064291 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.044622 } ], "others_margin": -0.024199 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7952731251716614, "model_output": 0.7953, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5783 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2241 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0449 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0433 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.038 } ], "others": 0.0328, "total": 0.7953, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.578337 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.224051 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.044917 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.043298 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.037996 } ], "others_margin": 0.032883 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.752574920654297, "model_output": 6.7526, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0845 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0263 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0091 } ], "others": 0.0028, "total": 6.7526, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08455 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.029015 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.026272 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021037 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.009132 } ], "others_margin": 0.002902 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0017, quality 0.557)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7018, "expected_assists": 0.0942, "assists": 0.0931, "assist_rate": 0.0931, "expected_goals": 0.0712, "goals": 0.0974, "goal_rate": 0.0974, "shots_on_target": 0.2363, "total_shots": 0.7967, "rating": 6.7526, "minutes": 24.52, "total_pass": 9.7182, "accurate_pass": 8.2625, "duels_won": 1.1411, "total_long_balls": 0.3616, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2582, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6071, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2176, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1111, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0451, "crosses_total": 1.3182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0196, "touches": 16.6398, "possession_lost": 4.9122, "dispossessed": 0.1509, "duels_lost": 1.5317, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3359, "tackles_won": 0.1507, "tackles": 0.2325, "clearances": 0.266, "total_contest": 0.6707, "won_contest": 0.1968, "challenges_lost": 0.406, "fouls": 0.5452, "fouls_drawn": 0.7118, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0427, "big_chances_missed": 0.1532, "xgot": 0.0685, "ball_carries": 7.5138, "total_progression": 49.8704, "progressive_carries": 1.6437, "shots_off_target": 0.5604 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13000000, "quality_factor": 0.557, "boost_factor": 1.0017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0066)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7018, "expected_assists": 0.0942, "assists": 0.0925, "assist_rate": 0.0925, "expected_goals": 0.0712, "goals": 0.0968, "goal_rate": 0.0968, "shots_on_target": 0.2373, "total_shots": 0.7965, "rating": 6.7526, "minutes": 24.52, "total_pass": 9.7182, "accurate_pass": 8.2625, "duels_won": 1.1411, "total_long_balls": 0.3616, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2582, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6071, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2176, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1111, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0451, "crosses_total": 1.3211, "crosses_accurate": 0.0196, "touches": 16.6398, "possession_lost": 4.9122, "dispossessed": 0.1509, "duels_lost": 1.5317, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.335, "tackles_won": 0.1523, "tackles": 0.2325, "clearances": 0.266, "total_contest": 0.6707, "won_contest": 0.1968, "challenges_lost": 0.406, "fouls": 0.5455, "fouls_drawn": 0.7148, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0427, "big_chances_missed": 0.1532, "xgot": 0.0685, "ball_carries": 7.5138, "total_progression": 49.8704, "progressive_carries": 1.6437, "shots_off_target": 0.5604 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0066, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2724, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.5 to 28.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8086, "expected_assists": 0.1085, "assists": 0.1066, "assist_rate": 0.1066, "expected_goals": 0.082, "goals": 0.1115, "goal_rate": 0.1115, "shots_on_target": 0.2734, "total_shots": 0.919, "rating": 6.7526, "minutes": 28.25, "total_pass": 11.1965, "accurate_pass": 9.5194, "duels_won": 1.3147, "total_long_balls": 0.4166, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2975, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0037, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5549, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1928, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9647, "crosses_total": 1.5221, "crosses_accurate": 0.0226, "touches": 19.1711, "possession_lost": 5.6594, "dispossessed": 0.1509, "duels_lost": 1.7647, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.386, "tackles_won": 0.1755, "tackles": 0.2679, "clearances": 0.3065, "total_contest": 0.7727, "won_contest": 0.2267, "challenges_lost": 0.406, "fouls": 0.6285, "fouls_drawn": 0.8235, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0492, "big_chances_missed": 0.1765, "xgot": 0.0789, "ball_carries": 8.6568, "total_progression": 57.4567, "progressive_carries": 1.8937, "shots_off_target": 0.6456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.25 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 28.25, "projection_minutes": 24.52, "minutes_scale": 1.1521, "appearance_probability": 0.573 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8086, "expected_assists": 0.1085, "assists": 0.1066, "assist_rate": 0.1066, "expected_goals": 0.082, "goals": 0.1115, "goal_rate": 0.1115, "shots_on_target": 0.2734, "total_shots": 0.919, "rating": 6.7526, "minutes": 28.25, "total_pass": 11.1965, "accurate_pass": 9.5194, "duels_won": 1.3147, "total_long_balls": 0.4166, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2975, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0037, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5549, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1928, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9647, "crosses_total": 1.5221, "crosses_accurate": 0.0226, "touches": 19.1711, "possession_lost": 5.6594, "dispossessed": 0.1509, "duels_lost": 1.7647, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.386, "tackles_won": 0.1755, "tackles": 0.2679, "clearances": 0.3065, "total_contest": 0.7727, "won_contest": 0.2267, "challenges_lost": 0.406, "fouls": 0.6285, "fouls_drawn": 0.8235, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0492, "big_chances_missed": 0.1765, "xgot": 0.0789, "ball_carries": 8.6568, "total_progression": 57.4567, "progressive_carries": 1.8937, "shots_off_target": 0.6456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.25 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.74 (squad xG sum 1.2479, xG scale 1.3975, xA scale 1.2613, team xA 1.40 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8086, "expected_assists": 0.1369, "assist_rate": 0.1066, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1146, "goal_rate": 0.1115, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2734, "total_shots": 0.919, "rating": 6.7526, "minutes": 28.25, "total_pass": 11.1965, "accurate_pass": 9.5194, "duels_won": 1.3147, "total_long_balls": 0.4166, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2975, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0037, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5549, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1928, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9647, "crosses_total": 1.5221, "crosses_accurate": 0.0226, "touches": 19.1711, "possession_lost": 5.6594, "dispossessed": 0.1509, "duels_lost": 1.7647, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.386, "tackles_won": 0.1755, "tackles": 0.2679, "clearances": 0.3065, "total_contest": 0.7727, "won_contest": 0.2267, "challenges_lost": 0.406, "fouls": 0.6285, "fouls_drawn": 0.8235, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0492, "big_chances_missed": 0.1765, "xgot": 0.1103, "ball_carries": 8.6568, "total_progression": 57.4567, "progressive_carries": 1.8937, "shots_off_target": 0.6456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.25, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.335, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2235, "creation_factor": 0.988 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.744, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2479, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1061, "team_expected_assists": 1.3952, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3975, "xa_scale": 1.2613, "opponent_lambda": 3.394, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.573 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.082, "after": 0.1146 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1085, "after": 0.1369 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8086, "expected_assists": 0.1369, "assist_rate": 0.1066, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1146, "goal_rate": 0.1115, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2734, "total_shots": 0.919, "rating": 6.7526, "minutes": 28.25, "total_pass": 11.1965, "accurate_pass": 9.5194, "duels_won": 1.3147, "total_long_balls": 0.4166, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2975, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0037, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5549, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1928, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9647, "crosses_total": 1.5221, "crosses_accurate": 0.0226, "touches": 19.1711, "possession_lost": 5.6594, "dispossessed": 0.1509, "duels_lost": 1.7647, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.386, "tackles_won": 0.1755, "tackles": 0.2679, "clearances": 0.3065, "total_contest": 0.7727, 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"combined", "global_player_rank": 3318, "fifa_rank": 1967.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8086, "expected_assists": 0.1369, "assist_rate": 0.1066, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1146, "goal_rate": 0.1115, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2734, "total_shots": 0.919, "rating": 6.7526, "minutes": 28.25, "total_pass": 11.1965, "accurate_pass": 9.5194, "duels_won": 1.3147, "total_long_balls": 0.4166, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2975, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0037, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5549, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1928, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9647, "crosses_total": 1.5221, "crosses_accurate": 0.0226, "touches": 19.1711, "possession_lost": 5.6594, "dispossessed": 0.1509, "duels_lost": 1.7647, "aerial_won": 0.0, 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"scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1116 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0885 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0193 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0166 } ], "others": -0.0396, "total": 6.7656, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.111641 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.088517 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.023274 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.019258 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016645 } ], "others_margin": -0.039468 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0013, quality 0.513)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3164, "expected_assists": 0.0229, "assists": 0.0308, "assist_rate": 0.0308, "expected_goals": 0.0299, "goals": 0.0469, "goal_rate": 0.0469, "shots_on_target": 0.1059, "total_shots": 0.3549, "rating": 6.7656, "minutes": 24.67, "total_pass": 46.226, "accurate_pass": 41.922, "duels_won": 5.6917, "total_long_balls": 2.1615, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7416, "total_own_half_passes": 18.1959, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3746, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.0301, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.5476, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.0299, "possession_lost": 7.162, "dispossessed": 0.9612, "duels_lost": 3.7852, "aerial_won": 1.1602, "aerial_lost": 0.5072, "interceptions": 1.5216, "tackles_won": 1.4744, "tackles": 3.0701, "clearances": 1.113, "total_contest": 1.5827, "won_contest": 0.4601, "challenges_lost": 0.3859, "fouls": 0.8083, "fouls_drawn": 1.0013, "blocks": 0.193, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.529, "total_progression": 49.0318, "progressive_carries": 1.0414, "shots_off_target": 0.249 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9200000, "quality_factor": 0.513, "boost_factor": 1.0013, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.7 to 22.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2856, "expected_assists": 0.0207, "assists": 0.0278, "assist_rate": 0.0278, "expected_goals": 0.027, "goals": 0.0423, "goal_rate": 0.0423, "shots_on_target": 0.0956, "total_shots": 0.3204, "rating": 6.7656, "minutes": 22.27, "total_pass": 41.7318, "accurate_pass": 37.8463, "duels_won": 5.1383, "total_long_balls": 1.9514, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5723, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4269, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.6854, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.161, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.1937, "possession_lost": 6.4657, "dispossessed": 0.9612, "duels_lost": 3.4172, "aerial_won": 1.0474, "aerial_lost": 0.5072, "interceptions": 1.3737, "tackles_won": 1.3311, "tackles": 2.7716, "clearances": 1.0048, "total_contest": 1.4288, "won_contest": 0.4154, "challenges_lost": 0.3859, "fouls": 0.7297, "fouls_drawn": 0.904, "blocks": 0.1742, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1165, "total_progression": 44.2648, "progressive_carries": 0.9402, "shots_off_target": 0.2248, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.27, "projection_minutes": 24.67, "minutes_scale": 0.9028, "appearance_probability": 0.512 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2856, "expected_assists": 0.0207, "assists": 0.0278, "assist_rate": 0.0278, "expected_goals": 0.027, "goals": 0.0423, "goal_rate": 0.0423, "shots_on_target": 0.0956, "total_shots": 0.3204, "rating": 6.7656, "minutes": 22.27, "total_pass": 41.7318, "accurate_pass": 37.8463, "duels_won": 5.1383, "total_long_balls": 1.9514, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5723, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4269, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.6854, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.161, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.1937, "possession_lost": 6.4657, "dispossessed": 0.9612, "duels_lost": 3.4172, "aerial_won": 1.0474, "aerial_lost": 0.5072, "interceptions": 1.3737, "tackles_won": 1.3311, "tackles": 2.7716, "clearances": 1.0048, "total_contest": 1.4288, "won_contest": 0.4154, "challenges_lost": 0.3859, "fouls": 0.7297, "fouls_drawn": 0.904, "blocks": 0.1742, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1165, "total_progression": 44.2648, "progressive_carries": 0.9402, "shots_off_target": 0.2248, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.74 (squad xG sum 1.2479, xG scale 1.3975, xA scale 1.2613, team xA 1.40 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2856, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "assist_rate": 0.0278, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0423, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0956, "total_shots": 0.3204, "rating": 6.7656, "minutes": 22.27, "total_pass": 41.7318, "accurate_pass": 37.8463, "duels_won": 5.1383, "total_long_balls": 1.9514, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5723, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4269, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.6854, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.161, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.1937, "possession_lost": 6.4657, "dispossessed": 0.9612, "duels_lost": 3.4172, "aerial_won": 1.0474, "aerial_lost": 0.5072, "interceptions": 1.3737, "tackles_won": 1.3311, "tackles": 2.7716, "clearances": 1.0048, "total_contest": 1.4288, "won_contest": 0.4154, "challenges_lost": 0.3859, "fouls": 0.7297, "fouls_drawn": 0.904, "blocks": 0.1742, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1165, "total_progression": 44.2648, "progressive_carries": 0.9402, "shots_off_target": 0.2248, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.335, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1987, "creation_factor": 1.1004 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.744, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2479, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1061, "team_expected_assists": 1.3952, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3975, "xa_scale": 1.2613, "opponent_lambda": 3.394, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.512 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.027, "after": 0.0377 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0207, "after": 0.0261 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2856, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "assist_rate": 0.0278, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0423, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0956, "total_shots": 0.3204, "rating": 6.7656, "minutes": 22.27, "total_pass": 41.7318, "accurate_pass": 37.8463, "duels_won": 5.1383, "total_long_balls": 1.9514, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5723, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4269, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.6854, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.161, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.1937, "possession_lost": 6.4657, "dispossessed": 0.9612, "duels_lost": 3.4172, "aerial_won": 1.0474, "aerial_lost": 0.5072, "interceptions": 1.3737, "tackles_won": 1.3311, "tackles": 2.7716, "clearances": 1.0048, "total_contest": 1.4288, "won_contest": 0.4154, "challenges_lost": 0.3859, "fouls": 0.7297, "fouls_drawn": 0.904, "blocks": 0.1742, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1165, "total_progression": 44.2648, "progressive_carries": 0.9402, "shots_off_target": 0.2248, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.335, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1987, "creation_factor": 1.1004, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4406, "fifa_rank": 4706.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2856, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "assist_rate": 0.0278, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0423, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0956, "total_shots": 0.3204, "rating": 6.7656, "minutes": 22.27, "total_pass": 41.7318, "accurate_pass": 37.8463, "duels_won": 5.1383, "total_long_balls": 1.9514, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5723, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4269, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.6854, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.161, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.1937, "possession_lost": 6.4657, "dispossessed": 0.9612, "duels_lost": 3.4172, "aerial_won": 1.0474, "aerial_lost": 0.5072, "interceptions": 1.3737, "tackles_won": 1.3311, "tackles": 2.7716, "clearances": 1.0048, "total_contest": 1.4288, "won_contest": 0.4154, "challenges_lost": 0.3859, "fouls": 0.7297, "fouls_drawn": 0.904, "blocks": 0.1742, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1165, "total_progression": 44.2648, "progressive_carries": 0.9402, "shots_off_target": 0.2248, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.335, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0189, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1987, "creation_factor": 1.1004, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0189, "scorer_weight": 0.0231, "squad_weight_total": 1.8926, "weight_share": 0.0122, "finishing_factor": 1.1987, "appearance_weight": 0.512, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.4579, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4579, "runner_up": "Ayoze Pérez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4407 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2856, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "assist_rate": 0.0278, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0423, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0956, "total_shots": 0.3204, "rating": 6.7656, "minutes": 22.27, "total_pass": 41.7318, "accurate_pass": 37.8463, "duels_won": 5.1383, "total_long_balls": 1.9514, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5723, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4269, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.6854, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.161, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.1937, "possession_lost": 6.4657, "dispossessed": 0.9612, "duels_lost": 3.4172, "aerial_won": 1.0474, "aerial_lost": 0.5072, "interceptions": 1.3737, "tackles_won": 1.3311, "tackles": 2.7716, "clearances": 1.0048, "total_contest": 1.4288, "won_contest": 0.4154, "challenges_lost": 0.3859, "fouls": 0.7297, "fouls_drawn": 0.904, "blocks": 0.1742, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1165, "total_progression": 44.2648, "progressive_carries": 0.9402, "shots_off_target": 0.2248, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.335, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0189, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0132, "finishing_factor": 1.1987, "creation_factor": 1.1004, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0132, "provider_weight": 0.0147, "squad_weight_total": 1.4371, "weight_share": 0.0102, "creation_factor": 1.1004, "appearance_weight": 0.512, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ilias Akhomach", "weight": 0.2045, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2045, "runner_up": "Renato Veiga", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1341, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ] } ] } } ] }, "Georges Mikautadze": { "player_id": 1009372, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 176, "market_value": 32000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1715, "goal_rate": 0.1289, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0909, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8025, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 4.5638, "dispossessed": 0.6899, "duels_lost": 3, 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"league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5212, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416324, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", 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"Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2206, "expected_assists": 0.4077, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083735, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0145, "expected_assists": 0.023, "total_shots": 3, 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"match_id": 14083573, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Mallorca", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1648, "combined_rank_score": 667.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 371.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9688, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 964.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8025, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Georges Mikautadze", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Andrew Robertson", "ranking": 1643 }, { "player_name": "Dango Ouattara", "ranking": 1644 }, { "player_name": "Aziz Kholmurodov", "ranking": 1645 }, { "player_name": "Uroš Kojić", "ranking": 1646 }, { "player_name": "Josh Risdon", "ranking": 1647 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Trai Hume", "ranking": 1649 }, { "player_name": "Alfonso Pedraza", "ranking": 1650 }, { "player_name": "Lukáš Provod", "ranking": 1651 }, { "player_name": "Isi Palazón", "ranking": 1652 }, { "player_name": "Walter Benítez", "ranking": 1653 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.778, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0077, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1678, "goals": 0.1264, "goal_rate": 0.1264, "shots_on_target": 0.5472, "total_shots": 1.1954, "expected_assists": 0.0889, "key_pass": 0.6908, "rating": 6.8025, "minutes": 25.89, "total_pass": 9.1076, "accurate_pass": 7.7198, "duels_won": 1.6198, "total_long_balls": 0.2402, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0912, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4818, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3003, "crosses_total": 0.5351, "crosses_accurate": 0.1082, "touches": 16.1811, "possession_lost": 4.4657, "dispossessed": 0.6899, "duels_lost": 2.4673, "aerial_lost": 0.4495, "total_contest": 2.0205, "won_contest": 0.7847, "ball_recovery": 0.8099, "challenges_lost": 0.092, "fouls": 0.1077, "fouls_drawn": 0.7023, "assists": 0.0295, "assist_rate": 0.0295, "interceptions": 0.0565, 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"player_name": "Manor Solomon", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Barrenetxea", "ranking": 2845 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Canales", "ranking": 2846 }, { "player_name": "Josip Šutalo", "ranking": 2847 }, { "player_name": "Orlando Mosquera", "ranking": 2848 }, { "player_name": "Kristian Dimitrov", "ranking": 2849 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "ranking": 2851 }, { "player_name": "Ulugbek Khoshimov", "ranking": 2852 }, { "player_name": "Kian Ronan", "ranking": 2853 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Richards", "ranking": 2854 }, { "player_name": "Cheick Doucouré", "ranking": 2855 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.625, "history_matches": 6, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", 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"league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3318, "combined_rank_score": 1275.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 584.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7941, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 1967.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7526, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tajon Buchanan", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Logan Costa", "ranking": 3313 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Ascacíbar", "ranking": 3314 }, { "player_name": "Rio Ngumoha", "ranking": 3315 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Walker-Peters", "ranking": 3316 }, { "player_name": "Alberto Costa", "ranking": 3317 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dion Drena Beljo", "ranking": 3319 }, { "player_name": "Aimar Oroz", "ranking": 3320 }, { "player_name": "Konstantinos Koulierakis", "ranking": 3321 }, { "player_name": "Óliver Torres", "ranking": 3322 }, { "player_name": "Daley Blind", "ranking": 3323 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.764, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1643 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0383 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0058, "total": 0.2359, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.707715 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.215058 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.090527 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.064291 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.044622 } ], "others_margin": -0.024199 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7952731251716614, "model_output": 0.7953, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5783 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2241 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0449 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0433 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.038 } ], "others": 0.0328, "total": 0.7953, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.578337 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.224051 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.044917 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.043298 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.037996 } ], "others_margin": 0.032883 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.752574920654297, "model_output": 6.7526, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0845 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0263 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0091 } ], "others": 0.0028, "total": 6.7526, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08455 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.029015 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.026272 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021037 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.009132 } ], "others_margin": 0.002902 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0017, quality 0.557)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7018, "expected_assists": 0.0942, "assists": 0.0931, "assist_rate": 0.0931, "expected_goals": 0.0712, "goals": 0.0974, "goal_rate": 0.0974, "shots_on_target": 0.2363, "total_shots": 0.7967, "rating": 6.7526, "minutes": 24.52, "total_pass": 9.7182, "accurate_pass": 8.2625, "duels_won": 1.1411, "total_long_balls": 0.3616, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2582, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6071, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2176, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1111, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0451, "crosses_total": 1.3182, "crosses_accurate": 0.0196, "touches": 16.6398, "possession_lost": 4.9122, "dispossessed": 0.1509, "duels_lost": 1.5317, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3359, "tackles_won": 0.1507, "tackles": 0.2325, "clearances": 0.266, 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"total_own_half_passes": 2.6071, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2176, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1111, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0451, "crosses_total": 1.3211, "crosses_accurate": 0.0196, "touches": 16.6398, "possession_lost": 4.9122, "dispossessed": 0.1509, "duels_lost": 1.5317, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.335, "tackles_won": 0.1523, "tackles": 0.2325, "clearances": 0.266, "total_contest": 0.6707, "won_contest": 0.1968, "challenges_lost": 0.406, "fouls": 0.5455, "fouls_drawn": 0.7148, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0427, "big_chances_missed": 0.1532, "xgot": 0.0685, "ball_carries": 7.5138, "total_progression": 49.8704, "progressive_carries": 1.6437, "shots_off_target": 0.5604 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0066, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2724, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection 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{ "key_pass": 0.8086, "expected_assists": 0.1369, "assist_rate": 0.1066, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1146, "goal_rate": 0.1115, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2734, "total_shots": 0.919, "rating": 6.7526, "minutes": 28.25, "total_pass": 11.1965, "accurate_pass": 9.5194, "duels_won": 1.3147, "total_long_balls": 0.4166, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2975, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0037, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5549, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1928, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9647, "crosses_total": 1.5221, "crosses_accurate": 0.0226, "touches": 19.1711, "possession_lost": 5.6594, "dispossessed": 0.1509, "duels_lost": 1.7647, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.386, "tackles_won": 0.1755, "tackles": 0.2679, "clearances": 0.3065, "total_contest": 0.7727, "won_contest": 0.2267, "challenges_lost": 0.406, "fouls": 0.6285, "fouls_drawn": 0.8235, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0492, "big_chances_missed": 0.1765, "xgot": 0.1103, "ball_carries": 8.6568, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.526934 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.079004 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.078191 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.067554 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.040376 } ], "others_margin": -0.227757 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.577052116394043, "model_output": 0.5771, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.49 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1318 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.044 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0289 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 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"name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.003 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0023 } ], "others": -0.0082, "total": 0.0365, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.314803 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.11031 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.068745 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.060239 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.053125 } ], "others_margin": -0.203229 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3756578266620636, "model_output": 0.3757, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2568 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.028 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0165 } ], "others": 0.0021, "total": 0.3757, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.479766 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.069504 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.057576 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.055359 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.043154 } ], "others_margin": 0.005691 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.640173435211182, "model_output": 6.6402, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.027, "total": 6.6402, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.04624 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013153 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.012197 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011947 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011501 } ], "others_margin": -0.02695 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9988, quality 0.496)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0619, "goals": 0.064, "goal_rate": 0.064, "shots_on_target": 0.2097, "total_shots": 0.5764, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "key_pass": 0.3752, "rating": 6.6402, "minutes": 17.29, "total_pass": 6.7875, "accurate_pass": 5.8023, "duels_won": 1.0083, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3332, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.348, "crosses_total": 1.0263, "crosses_accurate": 0.3352, "touches": 12.0309, "possession_lost": 3.4202, "dispossessed": 0.1406, "duels_lost": 0.9105, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.1146, "won_contest": 0.5101, "ball_recovery": 1.1506, "challenges_lost": 0.1654, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2693, "assists": 0.1406, "assist_rate": 0.1406, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2289, "tackles": 0.2289, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1925, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0403, "offsides": 0.2693, "ball_carries": 4.4541, "total_progression": 4.6031, "shots_off_target": 0.3667 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7800000, "quality_factor": 0.4963, "boost_factor": 0.9988, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.3 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0914, "goals": 0.0945, "goal_rate": 0.0945, "shots_on_target": 0.3096, "total_shots": 0.851, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "key_pass": 0.5539, "rating": 6.6402, "minutes": 25.53, "total_pass": 10.0204, "accurate_pass": 8.566, "duels_won": 1.4886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.419, "crosses_total": 1.5151, "crosses_accurate": 0.4949, "touches": 17.7613, "possession_lost": 5.0493, "dispossessed": 0.1406, "duels_lost": 1.3442, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6455, "won_contest": 0.7531, "ball_recovery": 1.6986, "challenges_lost": 0.1654, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3976, "assists": 0.2076, "assist_rate": 0.2076, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3379, "tackles": 0.3379, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2842, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0595, "offsides": 0.2693, "ball_carries": 6.5756, "total_progression": 6.7956, "shots_off_target": 0.5414, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.53, "projection_minutes": 17.29, "minutes_scale": 1.4763, "appearance_probability": 0.569 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0914, "goals": 0.0945, "goal_rate": 0.0945, "shots_on_target": 0.3096, "total_shots": 0.851, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "key_pass": 0.5539, "rating": 6.6402, "minutes": 25.53, "total_pass": 10.0204, "accurate_pass": 8.566, "duels_won": 1.4886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.419, "crosses_total": 1.5151, "crosses_accurate": 0.4949, "touches": 17.7613, "possession_lost": 5.0493, "dispossessed": 0.1406, "duels_lost": 1.3442, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6455, "won_contest": 0.7531, "ball_recovery": 1.6986, "challenges_lost": 0.1654, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3976, "assists": 0.2076, "assist_rate": 0.2076, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3379, "tackles": 0.3379, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2842, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0595, "offsides": 0.2693, "ball_carries": 6.5756, "total_progression": 6.7956, "shots_off_target": 0.5414, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.74 (squad xG sum 1.2479, xG scale 1.3975, xA scale 1.2613, team xA 1.40 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1277, "goal_rate": 0.0945, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3096, "total_shots": 0.851, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.5539, "rating": 6.6402, "minutes": 25.53, "total_pass": 10.0204, "accurate_pass": 8.566, "duels_won": 1.4886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.419, "crosses_total": 1.5151, "crosses_accurate": 0.4949, "touches": 17.7613, "possession_lost": 5.0493, "dispossessed": 0.1406, "duels_lost": 1.3442, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6455, "won_contest": 0.7531, "ball_recovery": 1.6986, "challenges_lost": 0.1654, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3976, "assist_rate": 0.2076, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3379, "tackles": 0.3379, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2842, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0832, "offsides": 0.2693, "ball_carries": 6.5756, "total_progression": 6.7956, "shots_off_target": 0.5414, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.335, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0219, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.744, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2479, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1061, "team_expected_assists": 1.3952, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3975, "xa_scale": 1.2613, "opponent_lambda": 3.394, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.569 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0914, "after": 0.1277 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0537, "after": 0.0677 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1277, "goal_rate": 0.0945, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3096, "total_shots": 0.851, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.5539, "rating": 6.6402, "minutes": 25.53, "total_pass": 10.0204, "accurate_pass": 8.566, "duels_won": 1.4886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.419, "crosses_total": 1.5151, "crosses_accurate": 0.4949, "touches": 17.7613, "possession_lost": 5.0493, "dispossessed": 0.1406, "duels_lost": 1.3442, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6455, "won_contest": 0.7531, "ball_recovery": 1.6986, "challenges_lost": 0.1654, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3976, "assist_rate": 0.2076, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3379, "tackles": 0.3379, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2842, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0832, "offsides": 0.2693, "ball_carries": 6.5756, "total_progression": 6.7956, "shots_off_target": 0.5414, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.335, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0219, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2850, "fifa_rank": 1792.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1277, "goal_rate": 0.0945, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3096, "total_shots": 0.851, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.5539, "rating": 6.6402, "minutes": 25.53, "total_pass": 10.0204, "accurate_pass": 8.566, "duels_won": 1.4886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.419, "crosses_total": 1.5151, "crosses_accurate": 0.4949, "touches": 17.7613, "possession_lost": 5.0493, "dispossessed": 0.1406, "duels_lost": 1.3442, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6455, "won_contest": 0.7531, "ball_recovery": 1.6986, "challenges_lost": 0.1654, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3976, "assist_rate": 0.2076, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3379, "tackles": 0.3379, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2842, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0832, "offsides": 0.2693, "ball_carries": 6.5756, "total_progression": 6.7956, "shots_off_target": 0.5414, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.335, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0682, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0219, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0682, "scorer_weight": 0.0743, "squad_weight_total": 1.8926, "weight_share": 0.0392, "finishing_factor": 1.0219, "appearance_weight": 0.569, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.4579, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4579, "runner_up": "Ayoze Pérez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4407 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1277, "goal_rate": 0.0945, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3096, "total_shots": 0.851, "expected_assists": 0.0677, "key_pass": 0.5539, "rating": 6.6402, "minutes": 25.53, "total_pass": 10.0204, "accurate_pass": 8.566, "duels_won": 1.4886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, 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} ], "others_margin": -0.039468 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0013, quality 0.513)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3164, "expected_assists": 0.0229, "assists": 0.0308, "assist_rate": 0.0308, "expected_goals": 0.0299, "goals": 0.0469, "goal_rate": 0.0469, "shots_on_target": 0.1059, "total_shots": 0.3549, "rating": 6.7656, "minutes": 24.67, "total_pass": 46.226, "accurate_pass": 41.922, "duels_won": 5.6917, "total_long_balls": 2.1615, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7416, "total_own_half_passes": 18.1959, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3746, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.0301, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.5476, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.0299, "possession_lost": 7.162, "dispossessed": 0.9612, "duels_lost": 3.7852, "aerial_won": 1.1602, "aerial_lost": 0.5072, "interceptions": 1.5216, "tackles_won": 1.4744, "tackles": 3.0701, "clearances": 1.113, "total_contest": 1.5827, "won_contest": 0.4601, "challenges_lost": 0.3859, "fouls": 0.8083, "fouls_drawn": 1.0013, "blocks": 0.193, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14.529, "total_progression": 49.0318, "progressive_carries": 1.0414, "shots_off_target": 0.249 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9200000, "quality_factor": 0.513, "boost_factor": 1.0013, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.7 to 22.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2856, "expected_assists": 0.0207, "assists": 0.0278, "assist_rate": 0.0278, "expected_goals": 0.027, "goals": 0.0423, "goal_rate": 0.0423, "shots_on_target": 0.0956, "total_shots": 0.3204, "rating": 6.7656, "minutes": 22.27, "total_pass": 41.7318, "accurate_pass": 37.8463, "duels_won": 5.1383, "total_long_balls": 1.9514, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5723, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4269, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.6854, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.161, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.1937, "possession_lost": 6.4657, "dispossessed": 0.9612, "duels_lost": 3.4172, "aerial_won": 1.0474, "aerial_lost": 0.5072, "interceptions": 1.3737, "tackles_won": 1.3311, "tackles": 2.7716, "clearances": 1.0048, "total_contest": 1.4288, "won_contest": 0.4154, "challenges_lost": 0.3859, "fouls": 0.7297, "fouls_drawn": 0.904, "blocks": 0.1742, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1165, "total_progression": 44.2648, "progressive_carries": 0.9402, "shots_off_target": 0.2248, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.27, "projection_minutes": 24.67, "minutes_scale": 0.9028, "appearance_probability": 0.512 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2856, "expected_assists": 0.0207, "assists": 0.0278, "assist_rate": 0.0278, "expected_goals": 0.027, "goals": 0.0423, "goal_rate": 0.0423, "shots_on_target": 0.0956, "total_shots": 0.3204, "rating": 6.7656, "minutes": 22.27, "total_pass": 41.7318, "accurate_pass": 37.8463, "duels_won": 5.1383, "total_long_balls": 1.9514, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5723, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4269, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.6854, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.161, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.1937, "possession_lost": 6.4657, "dispossessed": 0.9612, "duels_lost": 3.4172, "aerial_won": 1.0474, "aerial_lost": 0.5072, "interceptions": 1.3737, "tackles_won": 1.3311, "tackles": 2.7716, "clearances": 1.0048, "total_contest": 1.4288, "won_contest": 0.4154, "challenges_lost": 0.3859, "fouls": 0.7297, "fouls_drawn": 0.904, "blocks": 0.1742, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1165, "total_progression": 44.2648, "progressive_carries": 0.9402, "shots_off_target": 0.2248, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.74 (squad xG sum 1.2479, xG scale 1.3975, xA scale 1.2613, team xA 1.40 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2856, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "assist_rate": 0.0278, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0423, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0956, "total_shots": 0.3204, "rating": 6.7656, "minutes": 22.27, "total_pass": 41.7318, "accurate_pass": 37.8463, "duels_won": 5.1383, "total_long_balls": 1.9514, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5723, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4269, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.6854, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.161, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.1937, "possession_lost": 6.4657, "dispossessed": 0.9612, "duels_lost": 3.4172, "aerial_won": 1.0474, "aerial_lost": 0.5072, "interceptions": 1.3737, "tackles_won": 1.3311, "tackles": 2.7716, "clearances": 1.0048, "total_contest": 1.4288, "won_contest": 0.4154, "challenges_lost": 0.3859, "fouls": 0.7297, "fouls_drawn": 0.904, "blocks": 0.1742, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1165, "total_progression": 44.2648, "progressive_carries": 0.9402, "shots_off_target": 0.2248, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.335, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1987, "creation_factor": 1.1004 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.744, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2479, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1061, "team_expected_assists": 1.3952, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3975, "xa_scale": 1.2613, "opponent_lambda": 3.394, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.512 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.027, "after": 0.0377 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0207, "after": 0.0261 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2856, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "assist_rate": 0.0278, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0423, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0956, "total_shots": 0.3204, "rating": 6.7656, "minutes": 22.27, "total_pass": 41.7318, "accurate_pass": 37.8463, "duels_won": 5.1383, "total_long_balls": 1.9514, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5723, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4269, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.6854, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.161, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.1937, "possession_lost": 6.4657, "dispossessed": 0.9612, "duels_lost": 3.4172, "aerial_won": 1.0474, "aerial_lost": 0.5072, "interceptions": 1.3737, "tackles_won": 1.3311, "tackles": 2.7716, "clearances": 1.0048, "total_contest": 1.4288, "won_contest": 0.4154, "challenges_lost": 0.3859, "fouls": 0.7297, "fouls_drawn": 0.904, "blocks": 0.1742, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1165, "total_progression": 44.2648, "progressive_carries": 0.9402, "shots_off_target": 0.2248, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.335, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1987, "creation_factor": 1.1004, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4406, "fifa_rank": 4706.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2856, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "assist_rate": 0.0278, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0423, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0956, "total_shots": 0.3204, "rating": 6.7656, "minutes": 22.27, "total_pass": 41.7318, "accurate_pass": 37.8463, "duels_won": 5.1383, "total_long_balls": 1.9514, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5723, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4269, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.6854, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.161, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.1937, "possession_lost": 6.4657, "dispossessed": 0.9612, "duels_lost": 3.4172, "aerial_won": 1.0474, "aerial_lost": 0.5072, "interceptions": 1.3737, "tackles_won": 1.3311, "tackles": 2.7716, "clearances": 1.0048, "total_contest": 1.4288, "won_contest": 0.4154, "challenges_lost": 0.3859, "fouls": 0.7297, "fouls_drawn": 0.904, "blocks": 0.1742, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1165, "total_progression": 44.2648, "progressive_carries": 0.9402, "shots_off_target": 0.2248, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.335, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0189, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1987, "creation_factor": 1.1004, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0189, "scorer_weight": 0.0231, "squad_weight_total": 1.8926, "weight_share": 0.0122, "finishing_factor": 1.1987, "appearance_weight": 0.512, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.4579, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4579, "runner_up": "Ayoze Pérez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4407 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2856, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "assist_rate": 0.0278, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0423, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0956, "total_shots": 0.3204, "rating": 6.7656, "minutes": 22.27, "total_pass": 41.7318, "accurate_pass": 37.8463, "duels_won": 5.1383, "total_long_balls": 1.9514, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5723, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4269, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.6854, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.161, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.1937, "possession_lost": 6.4657, "dispossessed": 0.9612, "duels_lost": 3.4172, "aerial_won": 1.0474, "aerial_lost": 0.5072, "interceptions": 1.3737, "tackles_won": 1.3311, "tackles": 2.7716, "clearances": 1.0048, "total_contest": 1.4288, "won_contest": 0.4154, "challenges_lost": 0.3859, "fouls": 0.7297, "fouls_drawn": 0.904, "blocks": 0.1742, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.1165, "total_progression": 44.2648, "progressive_carries": 0.9402, "shots_off_target": 0.2248, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.512, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.27, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.335, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0189, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0132, "finishing_factor": 1.1987, "creation_factor": 1.1004, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0132, "provider_weight": 0.0147, "squad_weight_total": 1.4371, "weight_share": 0.0102, "creation_factor": 1.1004, "appearance_weight": 0.512, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ilias Akhomach", "weight": 0.2045, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2045, "runner_up": "Renato Veiga", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1341, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.74, "expected_assists": 1.4, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 523, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.98, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Arda Güler", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 87000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.887, "defenders": [ "Sergi Cardona" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.592, "xg_contribution": 0.2166, "xg_multiplier": 1.165, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sergi Cardona", "role": "RB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.408 } ], "duel_analysis": "Arda Güler (LW) is slightly favored against Sergi Cardona in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 59%. The quality gap is significant (€87M vs €9M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.17 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.217 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Bernardo Silva", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Santiago Mouriño" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.625, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.401, "xg_contribution": 0.0632, "xg_multiplier": 0.8844, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Santiago Mouriño", "role": "LB", "market_value": 19400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.599 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bernardo Silva (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Santiago Mouriño in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.88 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jude Bellingham", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 151000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Pape Gueye" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.47, "xg_contribution": 0.2069, "xg_multiplier": 1.0736, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pape Gueye", "role": "CM", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.53 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jude Bellingham (CAM) is slightly favored against Pape Gueye in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€151M vs €39M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.207 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Kylian Mbappé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 212000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga", "Pau Navarro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.642, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.26, "xg_contribution": 0.7663, "xg_multiplier": 1.0884, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.74 }, { "player": "Pau Navarro", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.74 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kylian Mbappé (ST) is slightly favored against Renato Veiga and Pau Navarro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€212M vs €22M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.09 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.766 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Vinícius Júnior", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 146000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga", "Pau Navarro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.642, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.244, "xg_contribution": 0.3248, "xg_multiplier": 1.0644, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.756 }, { "player": "Pau Navarro", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.756 } ], "duel_analysis": "Vinícius Júnior (ST) is slightly favored against Renato Veiga and Pau Navarro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€146M vs €22M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.325 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 73000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.875, "defenders": [ "Pape Gueye" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.444, "xg_contribution": 0.0532, "xg_multiplier": 1.065, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pape Gueye", "role": "CM", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.556 } ], "duel_analysis": "Aurélien Tchouaméni (CDM) is slightly favored against Pape Gueye in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. The quality gap is significant (€73M vs €39M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.053 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Denzel Dumfries", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Pape Gueye" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.37, "xg_contribution": 0.084, "xg_multiplier": 0.9561, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pape Gueye", "role": "CM", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.63 } ], "duel_analysis": "Denzel Dumfries (CDM) is evenly matched against Pape Gueye in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.084 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ayoze Pérez", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5400000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.467, "defenders": [ "Ibrahima Konaté", "Antonio Rüdiger" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.643, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2954, "xg_multiplier": 0.7836, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ibrahima Konaté", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Antonio Rüdiger", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ayoze Pérez (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ibrahima Konaté and Antonio Rüdiger in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €26M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.78 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.295 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Alberto Moleiro", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "Ibrahima Konaté", "Antonio Rüdiger" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.643, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.211, "xg_contribution": 0.2995, "xg_multiplier": 1.0165, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ibrahima Konaté", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789 }, { "player": "Antonio Rüdiger", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alberto Moleiro (ST) is evenly matched against Ibrahima Konaté and Antonio Rüdiger in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €26M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.299 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Gerard Moreno", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2400000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Ibrahima Konaté", "Antonio Rüdiger" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.643, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2208, "xg_multiplier": 0.764, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ibrahima Konaté", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Antonio Rüdiger", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gerard Moreno (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ibrahima Konaté and Antonio Rüdiger in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €26M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.76 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.221 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ilias Akhomach", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 11100000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.535, "defenders": [ "Ibrahima Konaté", "Antonio Rüdiger" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.643, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0913, "xg_multiplier": 0.8169, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ibrahima Konaté", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Antonio Rüdiger", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ilias Akhomach (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Ibrahima Konaté and Antonio Rüdiger in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.82 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.091 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Santi Comesaña", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 8400000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.503, "defenders": [ "Thibaut Courtois" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.574, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.29, "xg_contribution": 0.0407, "xg_multiplier": 0.8083, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Thibaut Courtois", "role": "GK", "market_value": 14500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.71 } ], "duel_analysis": "Santi Comesaña (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Thibaut Courtois in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.81 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.041 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pape Gueye", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.875, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.406, "xg_contribution": 0.0966, "xg_multiplier": 0.935, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 73000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.594 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pape Gueye (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Aurélien Tchouaméni in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. The quality gap is significant (€39M vs €73M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.097 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.848, "away_midfield_power": 0.614, "home_creative_power": 0.785, "away_creative_power": 0.544, "home_defensive_power": 0.624, "away_defensive_power": 0.544, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.58, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 2, "home_midfield_players": [ "Jude Bellingham", "Arda Güler", "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "Bernardo Silva", "Denzel Dumfries" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Pape Gueye", "Santi Comesaña" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.8, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.2, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.2, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.8, "home_throughball_threat": 3.0, "away_throughball_threat": 2.2, "key_personal_duel": "Jude Bellingham vs Pape Gueye", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.03, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.978 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.07, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "formation_verdict": "4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition." }, "home_lambda": 3.394, "away_lambda": 1.744, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Arda Güler": { "opponents": [ "Sergi Cardona", "Santi Comesaña" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bernardo Silva": { "opponents": [ "Santiago Mouriño", "Pape Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jude Bellingham": { "opponents": [ "Pape Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kylian Mbappé": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga", "Pau Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Vinícius Júnior": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga", "Pau Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Aurélien Tchouaméni": { "opponents": [ "Pape Gueye", "Santi Comesaña" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Denzel Dumfries": { "opponents": [ "Pape Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ibrahima Konaté": { "opponents": [ "Ayoze Pérez", "Alberto Moleiro", "Gerard Moreno", "Ilias Akhomach" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Antonio Rüdiger": { "opponents": [ "Ayoze Pérez", "Alberto Moleiro", "Gerard Moreno", "Ilias Akhomach" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Thibaut Courtois": { "opponents": [ "Santi Comesaña" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Álvaro Carreras": { "opponents": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Sergi Cardona": { "opponents": [ "Arda Güler" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Santiago Mouriño": { "opponents": [ "Bernardo Silva" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pape Gueye": { "opponents": [ "Jude Bellingham", "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "Denzel Dumfries", "Bernardo Silva" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Renato Veiga": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé", "Vinícius Júnior" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pau Navarro": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé", "Vinícius Júnior" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ayoze Pérez": { "opponents": [ "Ibrahima Konaté", "Antonio Rüdiger" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alberto Moleiro": { "opponents": [ "Ibrahima Konaté", "Antonio Rüdiger" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Gerard Moreno": { "opponents": [ "Ibrahima Konaté", "Antonio Rüdiger" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ilias Akhomach": { "opponents": [ "Ibrahima Konaté", "Antonio Rüdiger" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Santi Comesaña": { "opponents": [ "Thibaut Courtois", "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "Arda Güler" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Péter Gulácsi": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé", "Vinícius Júnior" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Jude Bellingham vs Pape Gueye). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.72, Away: 1.04. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9548, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1095, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9497, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9298, "home_midfield_factor": 1.03, "away_midfield_factor": 0.978, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7907, "away_avg_quality": 0.5972, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1936, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.4151, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.4086, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.7177, "elite_count_gap": 6, "combined_quality_gap": 0.4528, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.249, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1449, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.715, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.6238 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.03, "result": 1.6725 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.07, "result": 1.7895 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 2.058 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.1237, "result": 2.3125 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 2.3372 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9497, "result": 2.2195 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 2.3995 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 2.3995, "result": 2.3995, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.4528, "factor": 1.249, "pre": 2.3995, "result": 2.9971 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 2.9971 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 3.217 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 2.9556, "result": 3.1574 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 3.1574, "result": 3.157, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.02, "result": 3.22 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 3.22, "result": 3.22, "available": false }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1182, "pre": 3.22, "result": 3.601 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 3.601 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9426, "input_total": 5.138, "result": 3.3942 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 3.3942, "result": 3.394, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 3.394 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.0443, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.1207 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.978, "result": 1.0961 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.96, "result": 1.0522 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0522 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.988, "result": 1.0396 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9548, "result": 0.9926 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9298, "result": 0.9229 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1095, "result": 1.0324 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0324, "result": 1.0324, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.4528, "factor": 0.8551, "pre": 1.0324, "result": 0.8828 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8828 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.2158, "result": 1.0988 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 3.2889, "result": 1.5981 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.5981, "result": 1.598, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.2, "result": 1.918 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.918, "result": 1.918, "available": false }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9647, "pre": 1.918, "result": 1.85 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 1.85 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9426, "input_total": 5.138, "result": 1.7438 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.7438, "result": 1.744, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.744 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.2158, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Real Madrid", "away_squad": "Villarreal", "home_goals_per90": 3.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "away_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.956, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.289, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.4528, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1182, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9647, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 3.22, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.918, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 3.1574, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.5981, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 3.394, "final_away_lambda": 1.744 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 4, "opponent_position": 9, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1237, "attack_index": 1.324, "defense_concede_index": 0.994, "form_multiplier": 1.03, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.01, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.51, "team_ppg": 1.79, "opponent_ppg": 1.25 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 9, "opponent_position": 4, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.988, "attack_index": 1.027, "defense_concede_index": 0.959, "form_multiplier": 0.97, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.56, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.46, "team_ppg": 1.25, "opponent_ppg": 1.79 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Real Madrid vs Villarreal. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-4-2 (duel lambdas: Home 3.157, Away 1.598). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 3.394, Away 1.744 (most likely score 3-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Real Madrid", "away_squad": "Villarreal", "home_goals_per90": 3.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "away_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.956, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.289, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 3.394, "away_lambda": 1.744, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 3.157, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.598 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-10T13:33:50Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }