{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261011", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1033, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Athletic Club", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2389, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1033 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1132 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0973 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0899 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0643 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0608, "0-1": 0.1033, "0-2": 0.0899, "0-3": 0.0519, "0-4": 0.0224, "0-5": 0.0078, "0-6": 0.0022, "0-7": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.0643, "1-1": 0.1132, "1-2": 0.0973, "1-3": 0.0561, "1-4": 0.0243, "1-5": 0.0084, "1-6": 0.0024, "1-7": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.0352, "2-1": 0.0608, "2-2": 0.0526, "2-3": 0.0304, "2-4": 0.0131, "2-5": 0.0045, "2-6": 0.0013, "3-0": 0.0127, "3-1": 0.0219, "3-2": 0.019, "3-3": 0.0109, "3-4": 0.0047, "3-5": 0.0016, "4-0": 0.0034, "4-1": 0.0059, "4-2": 0.0051, "4-3": 0.003, "4-4": 0.0013, "5-0": 0.0007, "5-1": 0.0013, "5-2": 0.0011, "5-3": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2364, "draw": 0.2389, "away_win": 0.5247 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5334, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4666, "btts_yes": 0.5446, "btts_no": 0.4554, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1773, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3389 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.72, "MCR": 6.7, "ATR": 6.87, "GK": 6.85 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.93, "MCR": 6.92, "ATR": 6.66, "GK": 7.59 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Nico Williams", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Isi Palazón vs Nico Williams). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.96, Away: 1.20. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.63, "home_lambda": 1.082, "away_lambda": 1.73, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1132, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2364, "draw": 0.2389, "away_win": 0.5247 }, "favorite": "Athletic Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5247, "fair_spread": -0.648, "fair_total": 2.812, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Rayo Vallecano", "estimate": 1.082, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Athletic Club", "estimate": 1.73, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5334, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5446, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Rayo Vallecano", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1773, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Athletic Club", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3389, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Sergio Camello (Rayo Vallecano)", "estimate": 0.2643, "probability": 0.2323, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Oihan Sancet (Athletic Club)", "estimate": 0.446, "probability": 0.3598, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Adrià Pedrosa (Rayo Vallecano)", "estimate": 0.2089, "probability": 0.1885, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Nico Williams (Athletic Club)", "estimate": 0.265, "probability": 0.2328, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.812, "expected_total_shots": 22, "expected_total_passes": 678, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.3, "possession_home_pct": 46.7, "possession_away_pct": 53.3, "notes": "Athletic Club projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Athletic Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5247, "script": "Athletic Club is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.65 goals and fair total 2.81.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 11 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Rayo Vallecano must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Athletic Club lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Athletic Club chance creation leans on Oihan Sancet against Adrià Pedrosa in Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle; Athletic Club projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Rayo Vallecano: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Fran Pérez, Randy Nteka, Raúl de Tomás.", "Athletic Club: starters carry the main goal usage through Nico Williams; bench watchlist: Álvaro Djaló, Maroan Sannadi, Adama Boiro.", "Assist usage should flow through Beñat Prados; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Athletic Club tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 11 total first-half shots, and 1.41 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Rayo Vallecano is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Athletic Club.", "Rayo Vallecano wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Rayo Vallecano": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Augusto Batalla": { "player_id": 358910, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 186, "market_value": 5800000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.2021, "rating": 6.8508, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 16, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 39, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 10.4118, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.21, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 2.9412, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 60.0, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 55.2, "pointsPerMatch": 0.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.7298, "shots_faced": 16.4, "expected_saves": 4.01, "high_pressure_saves": 1.38, "opponent_faced": "Oihan Sancet, Nico Williams", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416292.0, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0088 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421052.0, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 20, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 16, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.1982 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1585, "combined_rank_score": 646.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 956.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8508, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Augusto Batalla", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Daniel Ballard", "ranking": 1580 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Herrera", "ranking": 1581 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Romero", "ranking": 1582 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Digne", "ranking": 1583 }, { "player_name": "Nico Elvedi", "ranking": 1584 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Pavel Šulc", "ranking": 1586 }, { "player_name": "Richard Friday", "ranking": 1587 }, { "player_name": "Bertrand Traoré", "ranking": 1588 }, { "player_name": "Abdurauf Buriev", "ranking": 1589 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Avellaneda", "ranking": 1590 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.392, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.392, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9916, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 149.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1133 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 2 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Rayo Vallecano, rel: 0.11, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.2038, "rating": 6.8508, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 16, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 39, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 10.5, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 4, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:01:45.250339+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 135, "rows": 3738 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "save_contribution": 1.3732, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.0911, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.4595, "possessionLostCtrl": 10.1351, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.0, "accurateLongBalls": 5.2973 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.6287190914154053, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0523 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0514 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0445 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9861, "items": [ { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.2264 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": -0.1492 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0511 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0324 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0189 } ], "others": -0.0842, "total": 2.6287, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.093963, "item_margins": [ { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.078858 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": -0.055568 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.01937 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.012085 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.007008 } ], "others_margin": -0.031503 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.20382964611053467, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0515 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0478 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0455, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.046 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0293 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0229 } ], "others": -0.0012, "total": -0.2038, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.045465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.045962 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": -0.035461 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.029282 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.023415 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.022882 } ], "others_margin": -0.001362 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8508148193359375, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.075 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0478 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0409 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0878, "items": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": -0.0497 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0344 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0336 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0279 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0239 } ], "others": -0.0675, "total": 6.8508, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.087778, "item_margins": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": -0.049747 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.034382 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.033626 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.027872 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.023944 } ], "others_margin": -0.067391 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9916, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.2021, "rating": 6.8508, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 16, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 39, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 10.4118, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5800000, "quality_factor": 0.472, "boost_factor": 0.9916 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0526)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.2021, "rating": 6.8508, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 16, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 39, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 10.4118, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.21, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 2.9412, "cleanSheets": 0.0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 60.0, "cleanSheetPct": 0.0, "minutesPct": 55.2, 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0.7750609517097473, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1236 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0751 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.0381, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2738 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0729 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.037 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0359 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0238 } ], "others": -0.0372, "total": 0.7751, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.038069, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.273795 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.072863 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.036976 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.035875 }, { "name": 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"netGoalDifferencePer90": -0.74 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0403, "history_matches": 2, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Rayo Vallecano" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0619 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.031 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.5501, "after": 0.528 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.3007, "after": 0.2886 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 13.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.22)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5258, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 0.8139, 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"params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 68.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5258, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 0.8139, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } } ] }, "Luiz Felipe": { "player_id": 850035, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 187, "market_value": 2100000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.935, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.006, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, 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0.476, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0737 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0443 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0422 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0248 } ], "others": -0.063, "total": 0.2394, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.476045, "item_margins": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.073669 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.044319 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.042223 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.038213 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.024767 } ], "others_margin": -0.062982 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.481632709503174, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0466 }, { "name": 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"total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2642, "combined_rank_score": 1225.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 927.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.48, "sofascore_appearances": 10.0, "fifa_rank": 1523.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6033, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Maroan Sannadi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "William Pizzi", "ranking": 2637 }, { "player_name": "Shohruz Norkhonov", "ranking": 2638 }, { "player_name": "Zafar Akromov", "ranking": 2639 }, { "player_name": "Danilho Doekhi", "ranking": 2640 }, { "player_name": "Randal Kolo Muani", "ranking": 2641 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Marcelo Suárez", "ranking": 2643 }, { "player_name": "Jhonier Guerrero", "ranking": 2644 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Serna", "ranking": 2645 }, { "player_name": "Abdulazizkhon Abdurashidov", "ranking": 2646 }, { "player_name": "Pau López", "ranking": 2647 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.442, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", 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"contribution": -0.1449 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0775 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0638 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0599 } ], "others": -0.2607, "total": 0.9075, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.435195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.195695 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.144884 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.077451 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.0638 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.059932 } ], "others_margin": -0.26072 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.022975876927375793, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1197 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0571 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0369 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.06, 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"importance": 0.0444 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0409 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6782, "items": [ { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.1893 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0492 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0473 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0466 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0214 } ], "others": -0.134, "total": 0.3834, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.388283, "item_margins": [ { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.327235 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.095946 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.08429 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.082918 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.040483 } ], "others_margin": -0.299969 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.603281021118164, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0724 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0438 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.815, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0416 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0309 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.028 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0264 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0718, "total": 6.6033, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.814961, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.041598 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.030903 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.027952 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.026385 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.012958 } ], "others_margin": -0.071882 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2406, "goal_rate": 0.1474, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6033, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.2863, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2406, "goal_rate": 0.1458, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6033, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.2863, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, 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"interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.024767 } ], "others_margin": -0.062982 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.481632709503174, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0466 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0352 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7578, "items": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.084 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0517 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0511 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.014 } ], "others": -0.0578, "total": 6.4816, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.757789, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.083999 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.051684 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.051061 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.01763 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.013992 } ], "others_margin": -0.057788 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.4816, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 1.9625, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2300000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.4816, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 1.9625, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 7.8, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -4.29 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 1, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.7288, "after": 0.7596 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.9812, "after": 1.0102 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 17.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.4816, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.3851, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 7.8, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.66 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 17.66, "appearance_probability": 0.602 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.4816, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.3851, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 7.8, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.66 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.73 (squad xG sum 1.2943, xG scale 1.3366, xA scale 1.4030, team xA 1.12 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.4816, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.3851, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 7.8, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.66, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.957, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.73, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2943, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8015, "team_expected_assists": 1.1245, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3366, "xa_scale": 1.403, "opponent_lambda": 1.082, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.602 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.4816, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.3851, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 7.8, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.66, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.957, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4188, "fifa_rank": 3496.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.4816, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.3851, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 7.8, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.66, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.957, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 1.5788, "weight_share": 0.0006, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 0.602, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nico Williams", "weight": 0.4192, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4192, "runner_up": "Oihan Sancet", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4174 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.4816, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.3851, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 7.8, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.66, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.957, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 1.0264, "weight_share": 0.001, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 0.602, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Beñat Prados", "weight": 0.2028, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2028, "runner_up": "Oihan Sancet", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1615, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Nico Williams" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.73, "expected_assists": 1.12, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 426, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 11, "avg_rating": 6.96, "possession_estimated_pct": 53.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jorge de Frutos", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 10900000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.533, "defenders": [ "Jesús Areso" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.468, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.456, "xg_contribution": 0.2443, "xg_multiplier": 0.965, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jesús Areso", "role": "RB", "market_value": 5500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.544 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jorge de Frutos (LW) is evenly matched against Jesús Areso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.244 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Sergio Camello", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 3300000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.441, "defenders": [ "Dani Vivian" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.613, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.346, "xg_contribution": 0.2637, "xg_multiplier": 0.8029, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dani Vivian", "role": "LB", "market_value": 18200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.654 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Camello (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Dani Vivian in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.80 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.264 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Alemão", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4400000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.455, "defenders": [ "Aymeric Laporte", "Aitor Paredes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.496, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1401, "xg_multiplier": 0.9145, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aymeric Laporte", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Aitor Paredes", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alemão (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Aymeric Laporte and Aitor Paredes in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.140 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Isi Palazón", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Mikel Jauregizar" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.245, "xg_contribution": 0.0704, "xg_multiplier": 0.7433, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mikel Jauregizar", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.755 } ], "duel_analysis": "Isi Palazón (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Mikel Jauregizar in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €31M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.74 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.070 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Pedro Díaz", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2900000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Mikel Jauregizar" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.318, "xg_contribution": 0.1142, "xg_multiplier": 0.8054, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mikel Jauregizar", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.682 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedro Díaz (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Mikel Jauregizar in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €31M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.81 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.114 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Giorgi Tsitaishvili", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Mikel Jauregizar" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.28, "xg_contribution": 0.1256, "xg_multiplier": 0.7507, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mikel Jauregizar", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.72 } ], "duel_analysis": "Giorgi Tsitaishvili (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Mikel Jauregizar in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €31M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.75 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.126 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Oihan Sancet", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Adrià Pedrosa" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.627, "xg_contribution": 0.3337, "xg_multiplier": 1.2164, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "role": "RB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.373 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oihan Sancet (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Adrià Pedrosa in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 63%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.22 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.334 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Peio Canales", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Andrei Rațiu" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.597, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.381, "xg_contribution": 0.0933, "xg_multiplier": 0.8548, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrei Rațiu", "role": "LB", "market_value": 16700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.619 } ], "duel_analysis": "Peio Canales (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Andrei Rațiu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.85 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.093 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Nico Williams", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Isi Palazón" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.669, "xg_contribution": 0.2811, "xg_multiplier": 1.3069, "shots_in_zone": 2.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Isi Palazón", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.331 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nico Williams (CAM) has a clear attacking advantage against Isi Palazón in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 67%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.31 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.281 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Gorka Guruzeta", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4600000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.457, "defenders": [ "Mujaid Sadick", "Marash Kumbulla" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.448, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.198, "xg_contribution": 0.2559, "xg_multiplier": 0.9968, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mujaid Sadick", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.802 }, { "player": "Marash Kumbulla", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.802 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gorka Guruzeta (ST) is evenly matched against Mujaid Sadick and Marash Kumbulla in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.256 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Mikel Jauregizar", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Pedro Díaz" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.532, "xg_contribution": 0.1193, "xg_multiplier": 1.1946, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pedro Díaz", "role": "CM", "market_value": 2900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.468 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mikel Jauregizar (CDM) is slightly favored against Pedro Díaz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. The quality gap is significant (€31M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.19 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.119 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Beñat Prados", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 15500000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.585, "defenders": [ "Pedro Díaz" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.474, "xg_contribution": 0.1131, "xg_multiplier": 1.1087, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pedro Díaz", "role": "CM", "market_value": 2900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.526 } ], "duel_analysis": "Beñat Prados (CDM) is slightly favored against Pedro Díaz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.11 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.113 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.437, "away_midfield_power": 0.709, "home_creative_power": 0.372, "away_creative_power": 0.644, "home_defensive_power": 0.372, "away_defensive_power": 0.542, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.381, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Isi Palazón", "Pedro Díaz", "Giorgi Tsitaishvili" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Nico Williams", "Mikel Jauregizar", "Oihan Sancet", "Beñat Prados", "Peio Canales" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 46.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 53.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.4, "home_throughball_threat": 1.7, "away_throughball_threat": 2.5, "key_personal_duel": "Isi Palazón vs Nico Williams", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.961, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.045 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.082, "away_lambda": 1.73, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Jorge de Frutos": { "opponents": [ "Jesús Areso" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Sergio Camello": { "opponents": [ "Dani Vivian" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alemão": { "opponents": [ "Aymeric Laporte", "Aitor Paredes" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Isi Palazón": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Jauregizar", "Nico Williams", "Oihan Sancet" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pedro Díaz": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Jauregizar", "Beñat Prados", "Peio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Giorgi Tsitaishvili": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Jauregizar", "Beñat Prados" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Adrià Pedrosa": { "opponents": [ "Oihan Sancet" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Andrei Rațiu": { "opponents": [ "Peio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mujaid Sadick": { "opponents": [ "Gorka Guruzeta" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marash Kumbulla": { "opponents": [ "Gorka Guruzeta" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Augusto Batalla": { "opponents": [ "Gorka Guruzeta", "Nico Williams" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jesús Areso": { "opponents": [ "Jorge de Frutos" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dani Vivian": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Camello" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aymeric Laporte": { "opponents": [ "Alemão" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aitor Paredes": { "opponents": [ "Alemão" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mikel Jauregizar": { "opponents": [ "Isi Palazón", "Pedro Díaz", "Giorgi Tsitaishvili" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Oihan Sancet": { "opponents": [ "Adrià Pedrosa", "Isi Palazón" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Peio Canales": { "opponents": [ "Andrei Rațiu", "Pedro Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nico Williams": { "opponents": [ "Isi Palazón" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gorka Guruzeta": { "opponents": [ "Mujaid Sadick", "Marash Kumbulla" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Beñat Prados": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Díaz", "Giorgi Tsitaishvili" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Unai Simón": { "opponents": [ "Jorge de Frutos", "Sergio Camello" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Isi Palazón vs Nico Williams). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.96, Away: 1.20. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9965, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.046, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1323, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.978, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9809, "home_midfield_factor": 0.961, "away_midfield_factor": 1.045, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4672, "away_avg_quality": 0.5827, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1155, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.0213, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.0487, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.3167, "elite_count_gap": -1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2665, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1466, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0853, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1223, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1087, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_squad": "Athletic Club", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.988, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.985, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.082, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.73, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.0823, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.7298, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.082, "final_away_lambda": 1.73 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 12, "opponent_position": 10, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9484, "attack_index": 1.271, "defense_concede_index": 0.693, "form_multiplier": 0.989, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.83, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.0, "team_ppg": 1.14, "opponent_ppg": 1.33 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 10, "opponent_position": 12, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1801, "attack_index": 0.809, "defense_concede_index": 1.848, "form_multiplier": 1.011, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.17, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.67, "team_ppg": 1.33, "opponent_ppg": 1.14 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.082, Away 1.730). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.082, Away 1.730 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 10, "home_fbref_players": 5, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 9, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_squad": "Athletic Club", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.988, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.985, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.082, "away_lambda": 1.73, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.082, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.73 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-30T01:05:15Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }