{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Alavés", "away_team": "Atl. Madrid", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261011", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-2", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0881, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Atl. Madrid", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1508, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0881 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0831 }, { "score": "1-3", "probability": 0.0816 }, { "score": "0-3", "probability": 0.0769 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0637 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0218, "0-1": 0.0595, "0-2": 0.0831, "0-3": 0.0769, "0-4": 0.0534, "0-5": 0.0297, "0-6": 0.0137, "0-7": 0.0055, "0-8": 0.0019, "0-9": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.0226, "1-1": 0.0637, "1-2": 0.0881, "1-3": 0.0816, "1-4": 0.0567, "1-5": 0.0315, "1-6": 0.0146, "1-7": 0.0058, "1-8": 0.002, "1-9": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.0121, "2-1": 0.0337, "2-2": 0.0468, "2-3": 0.0433, "2-4": 0.0301, "2-5": 0.0167, "2-6": 0.0077, "2-7": 0.0031, "2-8": 0.0011, "3-0": 0.0043, "3-1": 0.0119, "3-2": 0.0165, "3-3": 0.0153, "3-4": 0.0106, "3-5": 0.0059, "3-6": 0.0027, "3-7": 0.0011, "4-0": 0.0011, "4-1": 0.0032, "4-2": 0.0044, "4-3": 0.0041, "4-4": 0.0028, "4-5": 0.0016, "4-6": 0.0007, "5-1": 0.0007, "5-2": 0.0009, "5-3": 0.0009, "5-4": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.1179, "draw": 0.1508, "away_win": 0.7313 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.7372, "under_2_5_goals": 0.2628, "btts_yes": 0.6135, "btts_no": 0.3865, "home_clean_sheet": 0.0622, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3461 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.77, "MCR": 6.79, "ATR": 6.81, "GK": 7.22 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.87, "MCR": 6.99, "ATR": 6.76, "GK": 6.96 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Alavés vs Atl. Madrid. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Lucas Boyé, Giuliano Simeone, Julián Alvarez", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Antonio Blanco vs Pablo Barrios). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.78, Away: 1.51. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.72, "home_lambda": 1.061, "away_lambda": 2.778, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.1179, "draw": 0.1508, "away_win": 0.7313 }, "favorite": "Atl. Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7313, "fair_spread": -1.717, "fair_total": 3.839, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Alavés", "estimate": 1.061, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Atl. Madrid", "estimate": 2.778, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.7372, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6135, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Alavés", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0622, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Atl. Madrid", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3461, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Lucas Boyé (Alavés)", "estimate": 0.2051, "probability": 0.1854, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Julián Alvarez (Atl. Madrid)", "estimate": 0.6573, "probability": 0.4818, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ángel Pérez (Alavés)", "estimate": 0.2089, "probability": 0.1885, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alex Baena (Atl. Madrid)", "estimate": 0.3226, "probability": 0.2757, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.839, "expected_total_shots": 21, "expected_total_passes": 680, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.4, "possession_home_pct": 46.1, "possession_away_pct": 53.9, "notes": "Atl. Madrid projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Atl. Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7313, "script": "Atl. Madrid is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -1.72 goals and fair total 3.84.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Alavés must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Atl. Madrid lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Atl. Madrid chance creation leans on Julián Alvarez against Youssef Enriquez, Nahuel Tenaglia in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Atl. Madrid projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Alavés: starters carry the main goal usage through Lucas Boyé; bench watchlist: Abderrahman Rebbach, Aitor Mañas, Mariano Díaz.", "Atl. Madrid: starters carry the main goal usage through Giuliano Simeone, Julián Alvarez; bench watchlist: Jonathan David, Alejandro Grimaldo, Alexander Sørloth.", "Assist usage should flow through Ángel Pérez, Alex Baena; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Atl. Madrid tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 1.92 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Alavés is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Atl. Madrid.", "Alavés wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Alavés": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Antonio Sivera": { "player_id": 369004, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 184, "market_value": 5600000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0063, "rating": 7.218, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 9, "touches": 37, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 10.196, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.5968, "shots_faced": 26.4, "expected_saves": 6.46, "high_pressure_saves": 2.22, "opponent_faced": "Julián Alvarez, Ademola Lookman", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416337.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 15, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 0.9777 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334.0, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.3886 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0103, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.1349 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1219 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290.0, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 0.663 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292.0, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0097 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047.0, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0882 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 194, "combined_rank_score": 156.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 157.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 156.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.218, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Antonio Sivera", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Renzo Malanca", "ranking": 189 }, { "player_name": "Andy Robertson", "ranking": 190 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás de la Cruz", "ranking": 191 }, { "player_name": "Osmar Barba", "ranking": 192 }, { "player_name": "Yarden Shua", "ranking": 193 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Igor Lichnovsky", "ranking": 195 }, { "player_name": "Luis Rojas", "ranking": 196 }, { "player_name": "Armandas Kučys", "ranking": 197 }, { "player_name": "Javier Hernández", "ranking": 198 }, { "player_name": "Daler Tukhsanov", "ranking": 199 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.688, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.688, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9909, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 7 historical appearances across 3 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0063, "rating": 7.218, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 9, "touches": 37, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 10.29, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 4, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:01:45.250339+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 135, "rows": 3738 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 8.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "save_contribution": 3.7123, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.1741, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.7923, "possessionLostCtrl": 10.6345, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.7923, "accurateLongBalls": 9.3852 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.9997730255126953, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0523 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0514 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0445 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9861, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0634 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.0611 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0473 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0262 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0215 } ], "others": -0.036, "total": 2.9998, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.093963, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.021466 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.02068 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.015717 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.008609 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.007052 } ], "others_margin": -0.011914 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.0063481321558356285, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0515 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0478 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0455, "items": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.0619 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.05 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0431 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0384 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0268 } ], "others": 0.0052, "total": -0.0063, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.045465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "save_contribution", 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6.757789, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.027684 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.022234 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.015734 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.012351 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.010173 } ], "others_margin": -0.020401 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0717, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7046, "minutes": 67, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 43, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 30, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 6.9658, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 66, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 33000000, "quality_factor": 0.7389, "boost_factor": 1.0717 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0335)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7046, "minutes": 67, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 43, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 30, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 6.9658, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0197, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 66, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.5882, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 50.0, "shotConversion": 0.5, "minutesPct": 57.4, "pointsPerMatch": 2.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 1.16 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0335, "history_matches": 6, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0394 }, { 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[ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.229021 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.202587 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.067815 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.056739 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.029764 } ], "others_margin": -0.001285 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.4717992842197418, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1155 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0659 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "importance": 0.0345 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0335 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0332 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.2696, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.5401 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1729 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0325 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0246 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0204 } ], "others": -0.0073, "total": 0.4718, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.238719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.554058 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.270557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.060199 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.048153 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.041754 } ], "others_margin": -0.015199 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3753, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.476, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.056 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0277 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0225 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0188, "total": 0.3753, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.476045, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.05604 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.027653 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.022486 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.010617 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.010068 } ], "others_margin": -0.018878 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.805927276611328, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0466 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0352 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7578, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0573 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0129 } ], "others": 0.0174, "total": 6.8059, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.757789, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.057261 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.015761 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.015718 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.013608 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.012907 } ], "others_margin": 0.017436 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0422, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8059, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 48, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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} }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.00361813055217, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5910735513887351, "market_value_adjustment": 0.6171, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€18,600,000) scaled to 26.0 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position F (quality 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.294, "goal_rate": 0.19, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.106, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, 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"accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 30, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 78, "possession_lost": 15.7394, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 62, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19400000, "quality_factor": 0.6251, "boost_factor": 1.0375 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 22.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "assist_rate": 0.0207, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0465, "goal_rate": 0.0452, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8452, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 3.9725, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.533, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.72 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.72, "appearance_probability": 0.533 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "assist_rate": 0.0207, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0465, "goal_rate": 0.0452, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8452, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 3.9725, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.533, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.72 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.78 (squad xG sum 1.8617, xG scale 1.4922, xA scale 1.9502, team xA 1.81 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0517, "assist_rate": 0.0207, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0694, "goal_rate": 0.0452, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8452, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 3.9725, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.533, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.72, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.674, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9865, "creation_factor": 0.9242 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.778, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8617, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9259, "team_expected_assists": 1.8057, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4922, "xa_scale": 1.9502, "opponent_lambda": 1.061, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.533 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0465, "after": 0.0694 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0265, "after": 0.0517 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 89.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0517, "assist_rate": 0.0207, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0694, "goal_rate": 0.0452, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8452, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 3.9725, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.533, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.72, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.674, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9865, "creation_factor": 0.9242, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 20, "fifa_rank": 15.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 89.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0517, "assist_rate": 0.0207, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0694, "goal_rate": 0.0452, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8452, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 3.9725, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.533, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.72, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.674, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0357, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9865, "creation_factor": 0.9242, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0357, "scorer_weight": 0.0365, "squad_weight_total": 2.5683, "weight_share": 0.0142, "finishing_factor": 0.9865, "appearance_weight": 0.533, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julián Alvarez", "weight": 0.5258, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5258, "runner_up": "Giuliano Simeone", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4174 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Giuliano Simeone", "weight": 0.4174, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4174, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3931 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0517, "assist_rate": 0.0207, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0694, "goal_rate": 0.0452, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8452, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 3.9725, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.533, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.72, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.674, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0357, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0269, "finishing_factor": 0.9865, "creation_factor": 0.9242, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0269, "provider_weight": 0.0255, "squad_weight_total": 1.6575, "weight_share": 0.0154, "creation_factor": 0.9242, "appearance_weight": 0.533, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.2651, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2651, "runner_up": "Kang-in Lee", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2573 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.78, "expected_assists": 1.81, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 469, "interceptions": 3, "tackles": 4, "avg_rating": 6.91, "possession_estimated_pct": 53.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Miguel Rodríguez", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 4099999, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.451, "defenders": [ "Kang-in Lee" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.718, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.299, "xg_contribution": 0.1014, "xg_multiplier": 0.8221, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kang-in Lee", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 30000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.701 } ], "duel_analysis": "Miguel Rodríguez (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Kang-in Lee in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €30M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.82 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.101 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Antonio Blanco", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Alex Baena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.796, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.325, "xg_contribution": 0.0747, "xg_multiplier": 0.8169, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alex Baena", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 43000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.675 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antonio Blanco (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Alex Baena in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€10M vs €43M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.82 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.075 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ángel Pérez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2800000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Alex Baena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.796, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.312, "xg_contribution": 0.147, "xg_multiplier": 0.7967, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alex Baena", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 43000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.688 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ángel Pérez (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alex Baena in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €43M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.80 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.147 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Carles Aleñá", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 2800000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Giuliano Simeone" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.8, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.264, "xg_contribution": 0.0751, "xg_multiplier": 0.7707, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giuliano Simeone", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carles Aleñá (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Giuliano Simeone in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €44M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.77 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.075 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Toni Martínez", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Cristian Romero", "Marc Pubill" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.774, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1888, "xg_multiplier": 0.7326, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Cristian Romero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Marc Pubill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Toni Martínez (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Cristian Romero and Marc Pubill in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€7M vs €40M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.73 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.189 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Lucas Boyé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5300000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.466, "defenders": [ "Cristian Romero", "Marc Pubill" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.774, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.194, "xg_multiplier": 0.7341, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Cristian Romero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Marc Pubill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucas Boyé (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Cristian Romero and Marc Pubill in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €40M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.73 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.194 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Giuliano Simeone", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Carles Aleñá" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.576, "xg_contribution": 0.2519, "xg_multiplier": 1.2293, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carles Aleñá", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.424 } ], "duel_analysis": "Giuliano Simeone (LWB) has a clear attacking advantage against Carles Aleñá in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 58%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.23 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.252 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Morten Hjulmand", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 48000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.817, "defenders": [ "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.643, "xg_contribution": 0.1482, "xg_multiplier": 1.2834, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Ibáñez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.357 } ], "duel_analysis": "Morten Hjulmand (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Pablo Ibáñez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 64%. The quality gap is significant (€48M vs €4M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.28 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.148 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Barrios", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 60000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.853, "defenders": [ "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.64, "xg_contribution": 0.158, "xg_multiplier": 1.28, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Ibáñez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.36 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Barrios (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Pablo Ibáñez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 64%. The quality gap is significant (€60M vs €4M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.28 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.158 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Kang-in Lee", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 30000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.718, "defenders": [ "Miguel Rodríguez" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.541, "xg_contribution": 0.2492, "xg_multiplier": 1.1779, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Miguel Rodríguez", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.459 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kang-in Lee (RWB) is slightly favored against Miguel Rodríguez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. The quality gap is significant (€30M vs €4M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.18 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.249 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Julián Alvarez", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 116000000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Youssef Enriquez", "Nahuel Tenaglia" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.447, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.372, "xg_contribution": 0.4405, "xg_multiplier": 1.2524, "shots_in_zone": 2.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Youssef Enriquez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.628 }, { "player": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.628 } ], "duel_analysis": "Julián Alvarez (ST) has a clear attacking advantage against Youssef Enriquez and Nahuel Tenaglia in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€116M vs €4M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.25 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.440 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Ademola Lookman", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Youssef Enriquez", "Nahuel Tenaglia" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.447, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.344, "xg_contribution": 0.258, "xg_multiplier": 1.2119, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Youssef Enriquez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.656 }, { "player": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.656 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ademola Lookman (ST) has a clear attacking advantage against Youssef Enriquez and Nahuel Tenaglia in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €4M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.21 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.258 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.509, "away_midfield_power": 0.847, "home_creative_power": 0.417, "away_creative_power": 0.819, "home_defensive_power": 0.395, "away_defensive_power": 0.687, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.376, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Antonio Blanco", "Miguel Rodríguez", "Pablo Ibáñez", "Ángel Pérez", "Carles Aleñá" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Pablo Barrios", "Morten Hjulmand", "Giuliano Simeone", "Alex Baena", "Kang-in Lee" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 46.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 53.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.4, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 3.1, "key_personal_duel": "Antonio Blanco vs Pablo Barrios", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.955, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.052 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.061, "away_lambda": 2.778, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Miguel Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Kang-in Lee", "Giuliano Simeone" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Antonio Blanco": { "opponents": [ "Alex Baena", "Morten Hjulmand" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ángel Pérez": { "opponents": [ "Alex Baena", "Pablo Barrios" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Carles Aleñá": { "opponents": [ "Giuliano Simeone", "Kang-in Lee" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Toni Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Cristian Romero", "Marc Pubill" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lucas Boyé": { "opponents": [ "Cristian Romero", "Marc Pubill" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pablo Ibáñez": { "opponents": [ "Morten Hjulmand", "Pablo Barrios", "Alex Baena" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Youssef Enriquez": { "opponents": [ "Julián Alvarez", "Ademola Lookman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nahuel Tenaglia": { "opponents": [ "Julián Alvarez", "Ademola Lookman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Antonio Sivera": { "opponents": [ "Julián Alvarez", "Ademola Lookman" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Nicolás Valentini": { "opponents": [ "Julián Alvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Kang-in Lee": { "opponents": [ "Miguel Rodríguez", "Carles Aleñá" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alex Baena": { "opponents": [ "Antonio Blanco", "Ángel Pérez", "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Giuliano Simeone": { "opponents": [ "Carles Aleñá", "Miguel Rodríguez" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Cristian Romero": { "opponents": [ "Toni Martínez", "Lucas Boyé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marc Pubill": { "opponents": [ "Toni Martínez", "Lucas Boyé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Morten Hjulmand": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ibáñez", "Antonio Blanco" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo Barrios": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ibáñez", "Ángel Pérez" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Julián Alvarez": { "opponents": [ "Youssef Enriquez", "Nahuel Tenaglia" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ademola Lookman": { "opponents": [ "Youssef Enriquez", "Nahuel Tenaglia" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jan Oblak": { "opponents": [ "Toni Martínez", "Lucas Boyé" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Dávid Hancko": { "opponents": [ "Toni Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Antonio Blanco vs Pablo Barrios). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.78, Away: 1.51. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9481, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9975, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1399, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9087, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.019, "home_midfield_factor": 0.955, "away_midfield_factor": 1.052, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4584, "away_avg_quality": 0.7986, "avg_quality_gap": -0.3402, "squad_value_gap_log": -2.1966, "top5_value_gap_log": -2.0745, "attack_value_gap_log": -2.1481, "elite_count_gap": -7, "combined_quality_gap": -0.6928, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.381, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2217, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1092, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1702, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_squad": "Atlético Madrid", "home_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.33, "away_goals_per90": 2.333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.877, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.886, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.6928, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1782, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9407, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.242, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 2.597, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.242, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 2.5968, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.061, "final_away_lambda": 2.778 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 6, "opponent_position": 2, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8948, "attack_index": 1.271, "defense_concede_index": 0.606, "form_multiplier": 0.963, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.83, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.88, "team_ppg": 1.57, "opponent_ppg": 2.29 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 2, "opponent_position": 6, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9914, "attack_index": 1.386, "defense_concede_index": 0.693, "form_multiplier": 1.037, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.0, "team_ppg": 2.29, "opponent_ppg": 1.57 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Alavés vs Atl. Madrid. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-5-2 vs 3-5-2 (duel lambdas: Home 1.242, Away 2.597). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.061, Away 2.778 (most likely score 1-2).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 0, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_squad": "Atlético Madrid", "home_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.33, "away_goals_per90": 2.333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.877, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.886, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.061, "away_lambda": 2.778, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.242, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 2.597 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-30T01:03:28Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }