{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Celta", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261011", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "3-4-3", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1273, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Celta", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3009, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1273 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1362 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1252 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.122 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0719 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.122, "0-1": 0.1273, "0-2": 0.0685, "0-3": 0.0244, "0-4": 0.0065, "0-5": 0.0014, "1-0": 0.1252, "1-1": 0.1362, "1-2": 0.0719, "1-3": 0.0255, "1-4": 0.0068, "1-5": 0.0015, "2-0": 0.0664, "2-1": 0.0708, "2-2": 0.0377, "2-3": 0.0134, "2-4": 0.0036, "2-5": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.0232, "3-1": 0.0247, "3-2": 0.0132, "3-3": 0.0047, "3-4": 0.0012, "4-0": 0.0061, "4-1": 0.0065, "4-2": 0.0035, "4-3": 0.0012, "5-0": 0.0013, "5-1": 0.0014, "5-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3452, "draw": 0.3009, "away_win": 0.3539 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3544, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6456, "btts_yes": 0.4273, "btts_no": 0.5727, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3444, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3503 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.71, "MCR": 6.87, "ATR": 6.87, "GK": 6.9 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.91, "MCR": 6.91, "ATR": 6.83, "GK": 6.98 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Elche vs Celta. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 7 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Hugo González", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 3-4-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Thomas Lemar vs Ilaix Moriba). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.66, Away: 0.80. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat." }, "confidence": 0.69, "home_lambda": 1.049, "away_lambda": 1.066, "h2h": { "available": false, "meetings": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_wins": 0, "draws": 0, "home_multiplier": 1.0, "away_multiplier": 1.0 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1362, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3452, "draw": 0.3009, "away_win": 0.3539 }, "favorite": "Celta", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3539, "fair_spread": -0.017, "fair_total": 2.115, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Elche", "estimate": 1.049, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Celta", "estimate": 1.066, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3544, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4273, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Elche", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3444, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Celta", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3503, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Fernando Niño (Elche)", "estimate": 0.4007, "probability": 0.3301, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Hugo González (Celta)", "estimate": 0.3025, "probability": 0.261, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Roy Revivo (Elche)", "estimate": 0.1504, "probability": 0.1396, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Hugo Álvarez (Celta)", "estimate": 0.1421, "probability": 0.1325, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.115, "expected_total_shots": 23, "expected_total_passes": 875, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.7, "possession_home_pct": 48.2, "possession_away_pct": 51.8, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Celta", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3539, "script": "Celta is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.02 goals and fair total 2.12.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Elche must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Celta lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Elche chance creation leans on Fernando Niño against Marcos Alonso, Yoel Lago in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Elche: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Facundo Buonanotte, Rafa Mir, Martim Neto.", "Celta: starters carry the main goal usage through Hugo González; bench watchlist: Fer López, Jones El-Abdellaoui.", "Assist usage should flow through Hugo Álvarez; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Celta tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.06 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Elche is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Celta.", "Elche wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Elche": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Thomas Lemar": { "player_id": 191182, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 170, "market_value": 1900000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1038, "assist_rate": 0.0766, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0711, "goal_rate": 0.0634, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9156, "minutes": 71, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 8.3465, "dispossessed": 1.1158, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1115, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8282, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.303, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ilaix Moriba", "opponent_faced": "Ilaix Moriba", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0686, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0986, "finishing_factor": 0.9904, "creation_factor": 0.8199, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416299, "match_date": "2026-09-18", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416342, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0597, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416322, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416319, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 35, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1226, "expected_assists": 0.2628, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083743, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Girona FC", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.047, "expected_assists": 0.0372, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083624, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Girona FC", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0692, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083598, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Girona FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Girona FC", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083457, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Girona FC", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083255, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Girona FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Girona FC", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083318, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Girona FC", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0271, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3132, "combined_rank_score": 1099.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 650.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7407, "sofascore_appearances": 27.0, "fifa_rank": 1548.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9156, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Thomas Lemar", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Václav Jemelka", "ranking": 3127 }, { "player_name": "Diego Conde", "ranking": 3128 }, { "player_name": "Lawrence Shankland", "ranking": 3129 }, { "player_name": "Cameron Carter-Vickers", "ranking": 3130 }, { "player_name": "Patrick Wimmer", "ranking": 3131 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Robert Navarro", "ranking": 3133 }, { "player_name": "Luka Sučić", "ranking": 3134 }, { "player_name": "Che Adams", "ranking": 3135 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Vicente", "ranking": 3136 }, { "player_name": "Lautaro Di Lollo", "ranking": 3137 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 31, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9972, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 31 historical appearances across 8 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0794, "expected_assists": 0.1047, "assists": 0.0768, "assist_rate": 0.0768, "expected_goals": 0.0781, "goals": 0.0767, "goal_rate": 0.0767, "shots_on_target": 0.2404, "total_shots": 0.8105, "rating": 6.9156, "minutes": 70.91, "total_pass": 28.9389, "accurate_pass": 25.2103, "duels_won": 3.8548, "total_long_balls": 1.7746, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1259, "total_own_half_passes": 11.2292, 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], "others": 0.0018, "total": 0.2301, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.275728 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.186142 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121038 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.060691 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.051812 } ], "others_margin": 0.007647 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6663217544555664, "model_output": 0.6663, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2497 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1157 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0502 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0486 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0232 } ], "others": -0.1146, "total": 0.6663, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.249719 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115704 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.050237 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.048628 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.0232 } ], "others_margin": -0.114463 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.94741153717041, "model_output": 6.9474, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0836 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0335 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0161 } ], "others": -0.0401, "total": 6.9474, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.083586 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033549 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.019394 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.018234 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016053 } ], "others_margin": -0.040169 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9958, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9624, "expected_assists": 0.0891, "assists": 0.0998, "assist_rate": 0.0998, "expected_goals": 0.0518, "goals": 0.0675, "goal_rate": 0.0675, "shots_on_target": 0.2292, "total_shots": 0.6636, "rating": 6.9474, "minutes": 80.62, "total_pass": 44.3703, "accurate_pass": 39.4525, "duels_won": 6.5223, "total_long_balls": 1.9501, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0363, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9039, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.9505, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.4664, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.502, "crosses_total": 1.4509, "crosses_accurate": 0.6301, "touches": 58.4463, "possession_lost": 8.6299, "dispossessed": 1.1526, "duels_lost": 4.384, "aerial_won": 1.0999, "aerial_lost": 0.902, "interceptions": 0.6557, "tackles_won": 1.0133, "tackles": 2.0209, "clearances": 0.5168, "total_contest": 1.4251, "won_contest": 0.982, "challenges_lost": 0.3703, "fouls": 1.6796, "fouls_drawn": 2.5379, "blocks": 0.0662, "big_chances_created": 0.1453, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0469, "ball_carries": 18.461, "total_progression": 35.1313, "progressive_carries": 1.2284, "shots_off_target": 0.4344 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9958, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 19, "history_shrink": 0.2083, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0271)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9624, "expected_assists": 0.0891, "assists": 0.1052, "assist_rate": 0.1052, "expected_goals": 0.0518, "goals": 0.0657, "goal_rate": 0.0657, "shots_on_target": 0.2473, "total_shots": 0.6779, "rating": 6.9474, "minutes": 80.62, "total_pass": 44.3703, "accurate_pass": 39.4525, "duels_won": 6.5223, "total_long_balls": 1.9501, "accurate_long_balls": 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3865 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1874 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.1098 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0541 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0484 } ], "others": -0.1776, "total": 1.1879, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.386515 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.187434 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.10978 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.054114 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.048407 } ], "others_margin": -0.177603 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.09642006456851959, "model_output": 0.0964, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0084 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0078 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0039 } ], "others": 0.0117, "total": 0.0964, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.183577 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.103465 }, { "name": 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"name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.207268 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.115179 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.05667 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.056285 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.04998 } ], "others_margin": 0.093039 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.726149082183838, "model_output": 6.7261, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0457 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0315 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0188 } ], "others": 0.013, "total": 6.7261, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.045726 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031487 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.02326 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.021217 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.01884 } ], "others_margin": 0.013067 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9959, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0943, "goals": 0.0891, "goal_rate": 0.0891, "shots_on_target": 0.3473, "total_shots": 1.183, "expected_assists": 0.096, "key_pass": 0.967, "rating": 6.7261, "minutes": 79.36, "total_pass": 23.9967, "accurate_pass": 19.1149, "duels_won": 3.0971, "total_long_balls": 1.616, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7194, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3704, "crosses_total": 4.157, "crosses_accurate": 0.4607, "touches": 43.4662, "possession_lost": 14.3361, "dispossessed": 0.6601, "duels_lost": 5.4437, "aerial_lost": 0.5396, "total_contest": 3.0698, "won_contest": 0.9751, "ball_recovery": 3.0394, "challenges_lost": 0.5895, "fouls": 1.5798, "fouls_drawn": 0.9006, "assists": 0.1628, "assist_rate": 0.1628, "interceptions": 0.7289, 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"model_output": 7.0035, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0738 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0583 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0539 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0415 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0354 } ], "others": -0.0216, "total": 7.0035, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.073848 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05833 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.053865 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.041542 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9916, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3587, "goals": 0.4167, "goal_rate": 0.4167, "shots_on_target": 0.9211, "total_shots": 2.23, "expected_assists": 0.0469, "key_pass": 0.7327, "rating": 7.0035, "minutes": 75.37, "total_pass": 17.0131, "accurate_pass": 11.8139, "duels_won": 6.4249, "total_long_balls": 0.1246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1246, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2407, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9107, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 32.4651, "possession_lost": 11.4574, "dispossessed": 1.275, "duels_lost": 9.0577, "aerial_lost": 4.4639, "total_contest": 3.049, "won_contest": 1.2386, "ball_recovery": 2.1594, "challenges_lost": 0.7389, "fouls": 0.7695, "fouls_drawn": 1.0599, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2972, "tackles_won": 0.7528, 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"totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 19, "data_confidence": 0.779, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.64092577102457, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.218, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9969, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Elche", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.3448275862068966, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1933 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (19 historical appearances) to 13.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.22); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2975, "tackles": 0.6463, "tackles_won": 0.4373, "clearances": 0.8184, "aerial_won": 0.2507, "total_shots": 0.2032, 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"minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0593, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0504, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0428, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0364, "rating": 6.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 19.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 1.9145, "aerialWon": 0.422, "totalClearance_p90": 2.3363, "totalTackle": 1.6169, "totalPass": 20.7491 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.2975231111049652, "model_output": 0.2975, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4584 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0459 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0077 } ], "others": -0.026, "total": 0.2975, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.7651 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.122298 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.032239 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.031475 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.02346 } ], "others_margin": -0.083692 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.646334171295166, "model_output": 0.6463, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7553 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0288 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0182 } ], "others": 0.016, "total": 0.6463, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.780649 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.046079 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.032889 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.028692 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.028514 } ], "others_margin": 0.025134 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.437250554561615, "model_output": 0.4373, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4501 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0219 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": 0.0239, "total": 0.4373, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.748376 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.052675 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.037942 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.037243 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.031322 } ], "others_margin": 0.056488 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.8183556795120239, "model_output": 0.8184, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1109 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2164 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1044 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0572 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0536 } ], "others": -0.0905, "total": 0.8184, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.945746 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.176037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.097433 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.057705 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.057268 } ], "others_margin": -0.105052 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.2506917119026184, "model_output": 0.2507, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7988 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2073 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0348 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0269 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0152 } ], "others": -0.0483, "total": 0.2507, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.862767 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.439076 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.097033 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.082158 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.049445 } ], "others_margin": -0.176607 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.20324288308620453, "model_output": 0.2032, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1795 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0745 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0294 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0117 } ], "others": -0.013, "total": 0.2032, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.179521 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.07452 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029392 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.01676 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.011694 } ], "others_margin": -0.012909 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.573739051818848, "model_output": 6.5737, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0335 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0165 } ], "others": -0.0991, "total": 6.5737, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.033485 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.023948 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020287 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.018114 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016545 } ], "others_margin": -0.099012 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9969, quality 0.455)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2966, "tackles": 0.6443, "tackles_won": 0.4359, "clearances": 0.8158, "aerial_won": 0.2499, "total_shots": 0.2026, "rating": 6.5737, "minutes": 14.41, "total_pass": 2.6708, "accurate_pass": 2.2127, "duels_won": 1.2944, "total_long_balls": 0.5788, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3128, "total_own_half_passes": 1.415, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.2229, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.2558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.9899, "crosses_total": 0.2659, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.0234, "possession_lost": 1.5264, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0344, "aerial_lost": 0.3842, "total_contest": 0.3842, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.492, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4581, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.9499, "total_progression": 4.0758, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2026 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4400000, "quality_factor": 0.4548, "boost_factor": 0.9969, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 19, "history_shrink": 0.2083, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0262)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2903, "tackles": 0.6443, "tackles_won": 0.4332, "clearances": 0.8158, "aerial_won": 0.2499, "total_shots": 0.1987, "rating": 6.5737, "minutes": 14.41, "total_pass": 2.6708, "accurate_pass": 2.2127, "duels_won": 1.2944, "total_long_balls": 0.5788, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3128, "total_own_half_passes": 1.415, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.2229, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.2558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.9899, "crosses_total": 0.2618, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.0234, "possession_lost": 1.5264, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0344, "aerial_lost": 0.3842, "total_contest": 0.3842, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.492, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4533, "fouls_drawn": 0.0029, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0014, "goal_rate": 0.0014, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "shots_on_target": 0.0014, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.9499, "total_progression": 4.0758, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2026 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0262, "history_matches": 19, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1601, "prior_reliability": 0.1933, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.2966, "after": 0.2903 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench 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"big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8992, "total_progression": 3.8583, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1918, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.218, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.64 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.64, "projection_minutes": 14.41, "minutes_scale": 0.9466, "appearance_probability": 0.218 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2748, "tackles": 0.6099, "tackles_won": 0.4101, "clearances": 0.7723, "aerial_won": 0.2366, "total_shots": 0.1931, "rating": 6.5737, "minutes": 13.64, "total_pass": 2.5283, "accurate_pass": 2.0946, "duels_won": 1.2253, "total_long_balls": 0.5479, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2961, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.1576, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.1888, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.9371, "crosses_total": 0.2478, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.7019, 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}, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.012873 } ], "others_margin": 0.000469 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0032, quality 0.533)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.09, "goals": 0.0825, "goal_rate": 0.0825, "shots_on_target": 0.2914, "total_shots": 0.7053, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "key_pass": 0.4185, "rating": 6.619, "minutes": 18.4, "total_pass": 4.8969, "accurate_pass": 2.8564, "duels_won": 0.5422, "total_long_balls": 0.2274, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4646, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.424, "crosses_total": 0.5352, "crosses_accurate": 0.2676, "touches": 10.5048, "possession_lost": 4.2025, "dispossessed": 0.3148, "duels_lost": 1.773, "aerial_lost": 0.5825, "total_contest": 0.5422, "won_contest": 0.3148, "ball_recovery": 0.1933, "challenges_lost": 0.4207, "fouls": 0.2274, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1933, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3899, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3148, "xgot": 0.0651, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.941, "total_progression": 32.0334, "progressive_carries": 1.1247, "shots_off_target": 0.4139 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10900000, "quality_factor": 0.533, "boost_factor": 1.0032, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0183)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.09, "goals": 0.081, "goal_rate": 0.081, "shots_on_target": 0.2931, "total_shots": 0.7101, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "key_pass": 0.4185, "rating": 6.619, "minutes": 18.4, "total_pass": 4.8969, "accurate_pass": 2.8564, "duels_won": 0.5422, "total_long_balls": 0.2274, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4646, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.424, "crosses_total": 0.5356, "crosses_accurate": 0.2676, "touches": 10.5048, "possession_lost": 4.2025, "dispossessed": 0.3148, "duels_lost": 1.773, "aerial_lost": 0.5825, "total_contest": 0.5422, "won_contest": 0.3148, "ball_recovery": 0.1933, "challenges_lost": 0.4207, "fouls": 0.2335, "fouls_drawn": 0.0034, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1932, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3899, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3148, "xgot": 0.0651, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.941, "total_progression": 32.0334, "progressive_carries": 1.1247, "shots_off_target": 0.4139 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0183, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2044, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.2274, "after": 0.2335 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.4 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { 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1.6137, "shots_off_target": 0.5939, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.4, "projection_minutes": 18.4, "minutes_scale": 1.4348, "appearance_probability": 0.534 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1291, "goals": 0.1162, "goal_rate": 0.1162, "shots_on_target": 0.4205, "total_shots": 1.0188, "expected_assists": 0.0604, "key_pass": 0.6005, "rating": 6.619, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 7.026, "accurate_pass": 4.0983, "duels_won": 0.7779, "total_long_balls": 0.3263, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0431, "crosses_total": 0.7685, "crosses_accurate": 0.3839, "touches": 15.0721, "possession_lost": 6.0297, "dispossessed": 0.3148, "duels_lost": 2.5439, "aerial_lost": 0.5825, "total_contest": 0.7779, "won_contest": 0.4517, "ball_recovery": 0.2773, 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"accurate_pass": 4.0983, "duels_won": 0.7779, "total_long_balls": 0.3263, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0431, "crosses_total": 0.7685, "crosses_accurate": 0.3839, "touches": 15.0721, "possession_lost": 6.0297, "dispossessed": 0.3148, "duels_lost": 2.5439, "aerial_lost": 0.5825, "total_contest": 0.7779, "won_contest": 0.4517, "ball_recovery": 0.2773, "challenges_lost": 0.4207, "fouls": 0.335, "fouls_drawn": 0.0049, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2772, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.5594, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4517, "xgot": 0.103, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6545, "total_progression": 45.961, "progressive_carries": 1.6137, "shots_off_target": 0.5939, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, 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0.27314695715904236, "model_output": 0.2731, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2696 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0263 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0109 } ], "others": -0.0518, "total": 0.2731, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.510882 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.067297 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.060886 }, { "name": 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.03656 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025778 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.01835 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.01603 } ], "others_margin": -0.009865 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1384, "goals": 0.2226, "goal_rate": 0.2226, "shots_on_target": 0.554, "total_shots": 1.1676, "expected_assists": 0.0224, "key_pass": 0.2725, "rating": 6.7102, "minutes": 20.2, "total_pass": 4.1743, "accurate_pass": 3.776, "duels_won": 0.7207, "total_long_balls": 0.3762, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2508, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4044, "crosses_total": 0.1475, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.8123, "possession_lost": 2.5306, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 2.529, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.7345, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2402, "tackles": 0.2402, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2402, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4444, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.6136 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4099999, "quality_factor": 0.4511, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.2 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1737, "goals": 0.2793, "goal_rate": 0.2793, "shots_on_target": 0.6951, "total_shots": 1.4651, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.3419, "rating": 6.7102, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7699, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.35, "projection_minutes": 20.2, "minutes_scale": 1.2548, "appearance_probability": 0.561 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1737, "goals": 0.2793, "goal_rate": 0.2793, "shots_on_target": 0.6951, "total_shots": 1.4651, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.3419, "rating": 6.7102, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7699, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.05 (squad xG sum 0.9510, xG scale 1.1030, xA scale 0.9940, team xA 0.84 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1916, "goal_rate": 0.2793, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6951, "total_shots": 1.4651, "expected_assists": 0.0279, "key_pass": 0.3419, "rating": 6.7102, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7699, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.049, "squad_xg_sum": 0.951, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8443, "team_expected_assists": 0.8392, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.103, "xa_scale": 0.994, "opponent_lambda": 1.066, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.561 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1737, "after": 0.1916 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1916, "goal_rate": 0.2793, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6951, "total_shots": 1.4651, "expected_assists": 0.0279, "key_pass": 0.3419, "rating": 6.7102, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7699, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1951, "fifa_rank": 752.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1916, "goal_rate": 0.2793, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6951, "total_shots": 1.4651, "expected_assists": 0.0279, "key_pass": 0.3419, "rating": 6.7102, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7699, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0978, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0978, "scorer_weight": 0.1344, "squad_weight_total": 1.1444, "weight_share": 0.1174, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.561, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1916, "goal_rate": 0.2793, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6951, "total_shots": 1.4651, "expected_assists": 0.0279, "key_pass": 0.3419, "rating": 6.7102, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 5.2378, "accurate_pass": 4.738, "duels_won": 0.9043, "total_long_balls": 0.472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3147, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.017, "crosses_total": 0.1851, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8026, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3.1733, "aerial_lost": 0.2042, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3014, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 2.1764, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3014, "tackles": 0.3014, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3014, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8124, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7699, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0978, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0154, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0154, "provider_weight": 0.0125, "squad_weight_total": 0.8661, "weight_share": 0.0145, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.561, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Rafa Mir": { "player_id": 825754, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 189, "market_value": 4099999, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1916, "goal_rate": 0.2793, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0279, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7102, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 3.1753, "dispossessed": 0.8412, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.213, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0978, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0154, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083306, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 5.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4054, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083132, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.198, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083697, "match_date": "2026-04-03", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1036, "expected_assists": 0.0075, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083668, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 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"rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1076, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-31", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0915, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-26", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0778, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2025-09-13", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0661, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 8.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.2181, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 10.6119, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 6.924, "accuratePass": 11.1305, "totalShots": 1.4422 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.08972569555044174, "model_output": 0.0897, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0983 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0075 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0059 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0158, "total": 0.0822, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.658345 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.185626 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.082648 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.060487 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.029198 } ], "others_margin": -0.177381 } }, { 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0.0419, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.371421 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.088207 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.072162 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.055621 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.054966 } ], "others_margin": -0.039059 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.41714709997177124, "model_output": 0.4171, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2604 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0288 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0232 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0132 } ], "others": 0.0444, "total": 0.4171, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.488438 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.072192 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.058536 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.055666 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034772 } ], "others_margin": 0.112775 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.619022846221924, "model_output": 6.619, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0752 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0129 } ], "others": 0.0004, "total": 6.619, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.075243 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025917 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.015369 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014204 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.012873 } ], "others_margin": 0.000469 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0032, quality 0.533)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.09, "goals": 0.0825, "goal_rate": 0.0825, "shots_on_target": 0.2914, "total_shots": 0.7053, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "key_pass": 0.4185, "rating": 6.619, "minutes": 18.4, "total_pass": 4.8969, "accurate_pass": 2.8564, "duels_won": 0.5422, "total_long_balls": 0.2274, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4646, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.424, "crosses_total": 0.5352, "crosses_accurate": 0.2676, "touches": 10.5048, "possession_lost": 4.2025, "dispossessed": 0.3148, "duels_lost": 1.773, "aerial_lost": 0.5825, "total_contest": 0.5422, "won_contest": 0.3148, "ball_recovery": 0.1933, "challenges_lost": 0.4207, "fouls": 0.2274, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1933, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3899, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3148, "xgot": 0.0651, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.941, "total_progression": 32.0334, "progressive_carries": 1.1247, "shots_off_target": 0.4139 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10900000, "quality_factor": 0.533, "boost_factor": 1.0032, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0183)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.09, "goals": 0.081, "goal_rate": 0.081, "shots_on_target": 0.2931, "total_shots": 0.7101, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "key_pass": 0.4185, "rating": 6.619, "minutes": 18.4, "total_pass": 4.8969, "accurate_pass": 2.8564, "duels_won": 0.5422, "total_long_balls": 0.2274, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4646, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.424, "crosses_total": 0.5356, "crosses_accurate": 0.2676, "touches": 10.5048, "possession_lost": 4.2025, "dispossessed": 0.3148, "duels_lost": 1.773, "aerial_lost": 0.5825, "total_contest": 0.5422, "won_contest": 0.3148, "ball_recovery": 0.1933, "challenges_lost": 0.4207, "fouls": 0.2335, "fouls_drawn": 0.0034, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1932, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3899, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3148, "xgot": 0.0651, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.941, "total_progression": 32.0334, "progressive_carries": 1.1247, "shots_off_target": 0.4139 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0183, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2044, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.2274, "after": 0.2335 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.4 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { 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1.6137, "shots_off_target": 0.5939, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.534, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.4, "projection_minutes": 18.4, "minutes_scale": 1.4348, "appearance_probability": 0.534 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1291, "goals": 0.1162, "goal_rate": 0.1162, "shots_on_target": 0.4205, "total_shots": 1.0188, "expected_assists": 0.0604, "key_pass": 0.6005, "rating": 6.619, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 7.026, "accurate_pass": 4.0983, "duels_won": 0.7779, "total_long_balls": 0.3263, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0431, "crosses_total": 0.7685, "crosses_accurate": 0.3839, "touches": 15.0721, "possession_lost": 6.0297, "dispossessed": 0.3148, "duels_lost": 2.5439, "aerial_lost": 0.5825, "total_contest": 0.7779, "won_contest": 0.4517, "ball_recovery": 0.2773, 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"name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.087863 } ], "others_margin": -0.102102 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.029581410810351372, "model_output": 0.0296, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0403 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0091, "total": 0.0296, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.532523 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.201378 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.185891 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.08026 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.077095 } ], "others_margin": -0.271239 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.13262982666492462, "model_output": 0.1326, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1353 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0474 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0069 } ], "others": -0.0069, "total": 0.1326, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.540387 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.289475 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.16447 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.100499 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.050676 } ], "others_margin": -0.049998 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.44724804162979126, "model_output": 0.4472, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3663 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2151 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0564 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0245 } ], "others": 0.0346, "total": 0.4472, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.366302 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.215073 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.056436 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.028365 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.024477 } ], "others_margin": 0.034564 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.742138862609863, "model_output": 6.7421, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0813 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0069 } ], "others": -0.0105, "total": 6.7421, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.081262 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034716 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.014563 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.011974 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.006891 } ], "others_margin": -0.010398 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.447)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5525, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "assists": 0.1144, "assist_rate": 0.1144, "expected_goals": 0.0265, "goals": 0.0295, "goal_rate": 0.0295, "shots_on_target": 0.1323, "total_shots": 0.4461, "rating": 6.7421, "minutes": 26.39, "total_pass": 13.0716, "accurate_pass": 10.9233, "duels_won": 1.4725, "total_long_balls": 0.4362, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3887, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3755, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4876, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6961, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4357, "crosses_total": 0.3214, "crosses_accurate": 0.2143, "touches": 18.2741, "possession_lost": 3.6874, "dispossessed": 0.4395, "duels_lost": 1.4049, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2141, "interceptions": 0.0658, "tackles_won": 0.4123, "tackles": 0.5438, "clearances": 0.2471, "total_contest": 1.1517, "won_contest": 0.7854, "challenges_lost": 0.1829, "fouls": 0.2021, "fouls_drawn": 0.1431, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1364, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.043, "ball_carries": 5.4412, "total_progression": 27.3909, "progressive_carries": 0.8592, "shots_off_target": 0.3138 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3800000, "quality_factor": 0.4474, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0064)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5525, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "assists": 0.1137, "assist_rate": 0.1137, "expected_goals": 0.0265, "goals": 0.0293, "goal_rate": 0.0293, "shots_on_target": 0.1315, "total_shots": 0.4452, "rating": 6.7421, "minutes": 26.39, "total_pass": 13.0716, "accurate_pass": 10.9233, "duels_won": 1.4725, "total_long_balls": 0.4362, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3887, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3755, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4876, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6961, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4357, "crosses_total": 0.3231, "crosses_accurate": 0.2143, "touches": 18.2741, "possession_lost": 3.6874, "dispossessed": 0.4395, "duels_lost": 1.4049, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2141, "interceptions": 0.0672, "tackles_won": 0.4097, "tackles": 0.5438, "clearances": 0.2471, "total_contest": 1.1517, "won_contest": 0.7854, "challenges_lost": 0.1829, "fouls": 0.2027, "fouls_drawn": 0.1441, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1364, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.043, "ball_carries": 5.4412, "total_progression": 27.3909, "progressive_carries": 0.8592, "shots_off_target": 0.3138 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0064, "history_matches": 29, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2932, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Elche" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled 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"big_chances_created": 0.128, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0403, "ball_carries": 5.1051, "total_progression": 25.6991, "progressive_carries": 0.8061, "shots_off_target": 0.2944, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.5, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.76 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 24.76, "projection_minutes": 26.39, "minutes_scale": 0.9382, "appearance_probability": 0.5 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5184, "expected_assists": 0.0461, "assists": 0.1067, "assist_rate": 0.1067, "expected_goals": 0.0249, "goals": 0.0275, "goal_rate": 0.0275, "shots_on_target": 0.1234, "total_shots": 0.4178, "rating": 6.7421, "minutes": 24.76, "total_pass": 12.2642, "accurate_pass": 10.2486, "duels_won": 1.3815, "total_long_balls": 0.4093, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3647, "total_own_half_passes": 3.167, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.334, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0972, 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"La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 116.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0867 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 33 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Celta Vigo, rel: 0.09, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2395, "expected_assists": 0.1271, "assists": 0.1853, "assist_rate": 0.1853, "expected_goals": 0.0912, "goals": 0.0955, "goal_rate": 0.0955, "shots_on_target": 0.3274, "total_shots": 0.9072, "rating": 6.9396, "minutes": 73.32, "total_pass": 27.3209, "accurate_pass": 23.1248, "duels_won": 2.2, "total_long_balls": 0.9275, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4344, "total_own_half_passes": 8.3825, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.2156, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9384, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 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0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0092 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0029 } ], "others": 0.0054, "total": 0.0955, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.255004 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132782 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.101003 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.091133 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.032391 } ], "others_margin": 0.057716 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.32735565304756165, "model_output": 0.3274, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0784 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.038 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0358 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": 0.0052, "total": 0.3274, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.27686 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.143713 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.118872 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.037406 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.028625 } ], "others_margin": 0.015825 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9071803689002991, "model_output": 0.9072, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2772 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1426 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0862 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0178 } ], "others": -0.0266, "total": 0.9072, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.277171 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.142593 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.086153 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.026112 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.017809 } ], "others_margin": -0.026557 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.939606189727783, "model_output": 6.9396, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0348 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0291 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0118 } ], "others": 0.017, "total": 6.9396, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.034756 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.029074 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.020694 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.018661 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.011815 } ], "others_margin": 0.017124 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9997, quality 0.496)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2391, "expected_assists": 0.127, "assists": 0.1853, "assist_rate": 0.1853, "expected_goals": 0.0912, "goals": 0.0955, "goal_rate": 0.0955, "shots_on_target": 0.3273, "total_shots": 0.9069, "rating": 6.9396, "minutes": 73.32, "total_pass": 27.3127, "accurate_pass": 23.1179, "duels_won": 2.1993, "total_long_balls": 0.9272, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4343, "total_own_half_passes": 8.38, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.2134, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9327, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.9044, "crosses_total": 0.9998, "crosses_accurate": 0.3707, "touches": 39.2835, "possession_lost": 8.5379, "dispossessed": 0.7369, "duels_lost": 3.9138, "aerial_won": 0.0138, "aerial_lost": 0.6009, "interceptions": 0.7011, "tackles_won": 0.5516, "tackles": 0.731, "clearances": 0.5883, "total_contest": 1.9338, "won_contest": 0.5585, "challenges_lost": 0.4688, "fouls": 0.9042, "fouls_drawn": 0.8959, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6465, "big_chances_missed": 0.1718, "xgot": 0.1286, "ball_carries": 11.0619, "total_progression": 68.7195, "progressive_carries": 2.8861, "shots_off_target": 0.5796 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7800000, "quality_factor": 0.4963, "boost_factor": 0.9997, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0074)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2391, "expected_assists": 0.127, "assists": 0.1839, "assist_rate": 0.1839, "expected_goals": 0.0912, "goals": 0.0948, "goal_rate": 0.0948, "shots_on_target": 0.3249, "total_shots": 0.9002, "rating": 6.9396, "minutes": 73.32, "total_pass": 27.3127, "accurate_pass": 23.1179, "duels_won": 2.1993, "total_long_balls": 0.9272, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4343, "total_own_half_passes": 8.38, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.2134, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9327, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.9044, "crosses_total": 1.0203, "crosses_accurate": 0.3707, "touches": 39.2835, "possession_lost": 8.5379, "dispossessed": 0.7369, "duels_lost": 3.9138, "aerial_won": 0.0138, "aerial_lost": 0.6009, "interceptions": 0.6959, "tackles_won": 0.5475, "tackles": 0.731, "clearances": 0.5883, "total_contest": 1.9338, "won_contest": 0.5585, "challenges_lost": 0.4688, "fouls": 0.9068, "fouls_drawn": 0.8939, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6465, "big_chances_missed": 0.1718, "xgot": 0.1286, "ball_carries": 11.0619, "total_progression": 68.7195, "progressive_carries": 2.8861, "shots_off_target": 0.5796 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0074, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8147, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 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"totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2117 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0553 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0396 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0357 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.023 } ], "others": -0.0495, "total": 0.6826, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.273141 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.06451 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.048811 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.046156 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.030868 } ], "others_margin": -0.070109 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.829979419708252, "model_output": 6.83, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": 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"role_matches": 26, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0009, quality 0.531)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1885, "goals": 0.2114, "goal_rate": 0.2114, "shots_on_target": 0.5843, "total_shots": 1.446, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "key_pass": 0.6832, "rating": 6.83, "minutes": 73.07, "total_pass": 14.8994, "accurate_pass": 11.4238, "duels_won": 3.6039, "total_long_balls": 0.9441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4583, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2445, "crosses_total": 0.332, "crosses_accurate": 0.0115, "touches": 28.4797, "possession_lost": 9.2477, "dispossessed": 0.8731, "duels_lost": 5.1334, "aerial_lost": 1.901, "total_contest": 1.9278, "won_contest": 0.7571, "ball_recovery": 2.4612, "challenges_lost": 0.1589, "fouls": 1.1282, "fouls_drawn": 1.6484, "assists": 0.087, "assist_rate": 0.087, "interceptions": 0.1227, "tackles_won": 0.0956, "tackles": 0.3307, "clearances": 0.6933, "blocks": 0.1018, "big_chances_created": 0.1287, "big_chances_missed": 0.1424, "xgot": 0.3532, "offsides": 0.6429, "ball_carries": 8.5163, "total_progression": 17.4098, "progressive_carries": 1.8455, "shots_off_target": 0.8617 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10700000, "quality_factor": 0.5306, "boost_factor": 1.0009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0134)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1885, "goals": 0.2086, "goal_rate": 0.2086, "shots_on_target": 0.5765, "total_shots": 1.4309, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "key_pass": 0.6832, "rating": 6.83, "minutes": 73.07, "total_pass": 14.8994, "accurate_pass": 11.4238, "duels_won": 3.6039, "total_long_balls": 0.9441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4583, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2445, "crosses_total": 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"totalShots", "predicted": 0.810431718826294, "model_output": 0.8104, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2649 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1398 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0319 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0289 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0237 } ], "others": -0.0921, "total": 0.8104, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.264888 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.139801 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.031914 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.028898 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.023699 } ], "others_margin": -0.092059 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.011685371398926, "model_output": 7.0117, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0958 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0287 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0261 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0237 } ], "others": 0.0084, "total": 7.0117, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.095813 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028749 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.027528 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.026101 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.023681 } ], "others_margin": 0.008304 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0011, quality 0.540)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8715, "expected_assists": 0.1008, "assists": 0.0829, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "expected_goals": 0.0814, "goals": 0.1022, "goal_rate": 0.1022, "shots_on_target": 0.2952, "total_shots": 0.8114, "rating": 7.0117, "minutes": 89.56, "total_pass": 48.4229, "accurate_pass": 40.251, "duels_won": 3.1306, "total_long_balls": 3.0689, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5984, "total_own_half_passes": 20.7352, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5941, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.6877, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6569, "crosses_total": 0.7397, "crosses_accurate": 0.0976, "touches": 65.8326, "possession_lost": 12.6968, "dispossessed": 0.1877, "duels_lost": 3.0962, "aerial_won": 0.1473, "aerial_lost": 0.6415, "interceptions": 0.3554, "tackles_won": 0.5157, "tackles": 0.652, "clearances": 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"totalShots", "contribution": -0.248 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1345 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.081 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0309 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0302 } ], "others": -0.1347, "total": 0.824, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.247994 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.13452 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.080953 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.030894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.030237 } ], "others_margin": -0.134636 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.863088130950928, "model_output": 6.8631, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 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{ "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.255 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1368 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.098 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0433 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0367 } ], "others": -0.0342, "total": 0.8561, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.255002 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.136797 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.09797 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.043267 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.036711 } ], "others_margin": -0.034147 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.804095268249512, "model_output": 6.8041, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ 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0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.025 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0201 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0122 } ], "others": 0.081, "total": 6.8981, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.02498 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.020129 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.017762 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.016937 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01221 } ], "others_margin": 0.080928 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0247, "tackles": 1.7936, "tackles_won": 1.0931, "clearances": 3.4696, "aerial_won": 1.6511, "total_shots": 0.5256, "rating": 6.8127, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 55.5374, "accurate_pass": 49.1528, "duels_won": 5.9304, "total_long_balls": 4.4078, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4426, "total_own_half_passes": 31.709, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.652, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8284, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5008, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.9556, "possession_lost": 7.2928, "dispossessed": 0.4542, "duels_lost": 2.8049, "aerial_lost": 0.9082, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.3392, "challenges_lost": 0.9884, "fouls": 0.4542, "fouls_drawn": 1.5226, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0136, 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"integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0247, "tackles": 1.7936, "tackles_won": 1.0931, "clearances": 3.4696, "aerial_won": 1.6511, "total_shots": 0.5256, "rating": 6.8127, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 55.5374, "accurate_pass": 49.1528, "duels_won": 5.9304, "total_long_balls": 4.4078, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4426, "total_own_half_passes": 31.709, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.652, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8284, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5008, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.9556, "possession_lost": 7.2928, "dispossessed": 0.4542, "duels_lost": 2.8049, "aerial_lost": 0.9082, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.3392, "challenges_lost": 0.9884, "fouls": 0.4542, "fouls_drawn": 1.5226, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, 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"sofascore_rating": 7.375, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 1234.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9842, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ionuț Radu", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jonathan Burkardt", "ranking": 1674 }, { "player_name": "Reinildo", "ranking": 1675 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Hernández", "ranking": 1676 }, { "player_name": "Davide Zappacosta", "ranking": 1677 }, { "player_name": "Vicente Fernández", "ranking": 1678 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Beom-su Lee", "ranking": 1680 }, { "player_name": "Hyeon-oh Kim", "ranking": 1681 }, { "player_name": "Osvaldo Bosso", "ranking": 1682 }, { "player_name": "Guillermo Pacheco", "ranking": 1683 }, { "player_name": "Jovany Campusano", "ranking": 1684 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], 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"opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 5.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.8293, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9697, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.6074, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.1045, "save_contribution": 3.2556, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.8611 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{ "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0129 } ], "others": 0.0246, "total": 6.9842, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.009122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.039694 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": 0.029559 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.029289 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.023048 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.012894 } ], "others_margin": 0.024621 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 45, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3352, "combined_rank_score": 1302.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 616.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7727, "sofascore_appearances": 33.0, "fifa_rank": 1988.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7375, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Javi Rodríguez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Yerry Mina", "ranking": 3347 }, { "player_name": "Ángel Correa", "ranking": 3348 }, { "player_name": "Patrik Hrošovský", "ranking": 3349 }, { "player_name": "Aníbal Moreno", "ranking": 3350 }, { "player_name": "Morato", "ranking": 3351 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kristian Thorstvedt", "ranking": 3353 }, { "player_name": "Danilo Santos", "ranking": 3354 }, { "player_name": "Soufiane Rahimi", "ranking": 3355 }, { "player_name": "Héctor Bellerín", "ranking": 3356 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Perri", "ranking": 3357 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.776, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 37, "data_confidence": 0.776, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 10.26, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.327, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0036, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Celta Vigo", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 7.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1733 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (37 historical appearances) to 10.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.33); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 7.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3097, "tackles": 0.509, "tackles_won": 0.3731, "clearances": 1.1855, "aerial_won": 0.3326, "total_shots": 0.1076, "rating": 6.7375, "minutes": 24.81, "total_pass": 11.9827, "accurate_pass": 10.2886, "duels_won": 0.911, "total_long_balls": 1.5253, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5524, "total_own_half_passes": 6.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9703, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3183, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.8385, "possession_lost": 2.6115, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0999, "aerial_lost": 0.174, "total_contest": 0.2997, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6541, "challenges_lost": 0.2736, "fouls": 0.3526, "fouls_drawn": 0.4856, "blocks": 0.2047, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0021, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.6696, "total_progression": 1.7628, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1076 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:05:07.485697+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-26", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 2.2233, "aerialWon": 0.5288, "totalClearance_p90": 2.492, "totalTackle": 0.7985, "totalPass": 51.5474 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.30969762802124023, "model_output": 0.3097, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4786 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0292, "total": 0.3097, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.817156 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.030781 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.029381 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.027089 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.023836 } ], "others_margin": -0.089917 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5090164542198181, "model_output": 0.509, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7331 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0268 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0196 } ], "others": -0.0606, "total": 0.509, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.746399 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.041433 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.037267 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.035932 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.033784 } ], "others_margin": -0.112549 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3730512261390686, "model_output": 0.3731, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": -0.0097, "total": 0.3731, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.648864 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.056353 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.03571 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.032155 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.029728 } ], "others_margin": -0.025817 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.1855134963989258, "model_output": 1.1855, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0956 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1971 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0982 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0941 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0868 } ], "others": -0.0787, "total": 1.1855, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.934347 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.15705 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.081362 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.072216 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.066399 } ], "others_margin": -0.064389 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.332597017288208, "model_output": 0.3326, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8069 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1629 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0387 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0286 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0223 } ], "others": -0.0346, "total": 0.3326, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.876702 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.332911 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.098448 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.079591 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.062527 } ], "others_margin": -0.099251 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1075901985168457, "model_output": 0.1076, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2233 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0554 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0137 } ], "others": -0.0691, "total": 0.1076, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.223344 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.055414 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016559 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.014581 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01366 } ], "others_margin": -0.069145 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7375078201293945, "model_output": 6.7375, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0184 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0047, "total": 6.7375, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.0225 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.018382 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.015553 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011942 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011306 } ], "others_margin": -0.004705 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0036, quality 0.606)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3108, "tackles": 0.5108, "tackles_won": 0.3744, "clearances": 1.1898, "aerial_won": 0.3338, "total_shots": 0.108, "rating": 6.7375, "minutes": 24.81, "total_pass": 12.0258, "accurate_pass": 10.3256, "duels_won": 0.9143, "total_long_balls": 1.5308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5544, "total_own_half_passes": 6.8268, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9918, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.199, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3338, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.9027, "possession_lost": 2.6209, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.1039, "aerial_lost": 0.1746, "total_contest": 0.3008, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6565, "challenges_lost": 0.2746, "fouls": 0.3539, "fouls_drawn": 0.4873, "blocks": 0.2054, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0021, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.672, "total_progression": 1.7691, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.108 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17500000, "quality_factor": 0.6058, "boost_factor": 1.0036, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0134)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3109, "tackles": 0.5108, "tackles_won": 0.3708, "clearances": 1.1898, "aerial_won": 0.3338, "total_shots": 0.108, "rating": 6.7375, "minutes": 24.81, "total_pass": 12.0258, "accurate_pass": 10.3256, "duels_won": 0.9143, "total_long_balls": 1.5308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5544, "total_own_half_passes": 6.8268, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9918, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.199, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3338, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.9027, "possession_lost": 2.6209, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.1039, "aerial_lost": 0.1746, "total_contest": 0.3008, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6565, "challenges_lost": 0.2746, "fouls": 0.3506, "fouls_drawn": 0.4822, "blocks": 0.2054, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0021, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "shots_on_target": 0.0014, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.672, "total_progression": 1.7691, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.108 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0134, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2757, "prior_reliability": 0.1733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.4873, "after": 0.4822 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.8 to 10.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.33)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1286, "tackles": 0.2112, "tackles_won": 0.1533, "clearances": 0.492, "aerial_won": 0.138, "total_shots": 0.0453, "rating": 6.7375, "minutes": 10.26, "total_pass": 4.9732, "accurate_pass": 4.2701, "duels_won": 0.3781, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2293, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8232, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4779, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7922, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.4035, "possession_lost": 1.0839, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4565, "aerial_lost": 0.1746, "total_contest": 0.1244, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2715, "challenges_lost": 0.2746, "fouls": 0.145, "fouls_drawn": 0.1994, "blocks": 0.0849, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0009, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0006, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.2779, "total_progression": 0.7316, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0447, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.327, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.26 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 10.26, "projection_minutes": 24.81, "minutes_scale": 0.4135, "appearance_probability": 0.327 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1286, "tackles": 0.2112, "tackles_won": 0.1533, "clearances": 0.492, "aerial_won": 0.138, "total_shots": 0.0453, "rating": 6.7375, "minutes": 10.26, "total_pass": 4.9732, "accurate_pass": 4.2701, "duels_won": 0.3781, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2293, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8232, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4779, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7922, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.4035, "possession_lost": 1.0839, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4565, "aerial_lost": 0.1746, "total_contest": 0.1244, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2715, "challenges_lost": 0.2746, "fouls": 0.145, "fouls_drawn": 0.1994, "blocks": 0.0849, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0009, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0006, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.2779, "total_progression": 0.7316, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0447, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.327, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.26 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1286, "tackles": 0.2112, "tackles_won": 0.1533, "clearances": 0.492, "aerial_won": 0.138, "total_shots": 0.0453, "rating": 6.7375, 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"substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.327, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1286, "tackles": 0.2112, "tackles_won": 0.1533, "clearances": 0.492, "aerial_won": 0.138, "total_shots": 0.0453, "rating": 6.7375, "minutes": 10.26, "total_pass": 4.9732, "accurate_pass": 4.2701, "duels_won": 0.3781, "total_long_balls": 0.6331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2293, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8232, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4779, 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"name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1985 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0559 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0462, "total": 0.1194, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.198522 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.055904 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025293 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.014595 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011159 } ], "others_margin": -0.04629 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.752114295959473, "model_output": 6.7521, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0285 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0262 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0243 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0161 } ], "others": -0.0272, "total": 6.7521, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.028503 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.02623 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.024315 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016318 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.016086 } ], "others_margin": -0.0272 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9868, quality 0.452)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4939, "tackles": 0.591, "tackles_won": 0.3802, "clearances": 1.3958, "aerial_won": 0.5901, "total_shots": 0.1178, "rating": 6.7521, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 32.5644, "accurate_pass": 31.5776, "duels_won": 0.9868, "total_long_balls": 0.9868, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 23.6832, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.6832, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8812, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8944, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.4588, "possession_lost": 0.9868, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9736, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.9736, "challenges_lost": 0.9868, "fouls": 0.9868, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 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0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.417917 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.037069 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.034436 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.02261 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.018741 } ], "others_margin": -0.109966 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.736205577850342, "model_output": 6.7362, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1106 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "totalPass", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0049, quality 0.606)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6688, "expected_assists": 0.0545, "assists": 0.0809, "assist_rate": 0.0809, "expected_goals": 0.045, "goals": 0.0529, "goal_rate": 0.0529, "shots_on_target": 0.1317, "total_shots": 0.3969, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.96, "total_pass": 10.2166, "accurate_pass": 7.8369, "duels_won": 1.1124, "total_long_balls": 1.2289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6384, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7555, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9591, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8779, "crosses_total": 0.1525, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1558, "possession_lost": 3.7668, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5607, "aerial_won": 0.0581, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2651, "tackles_won": 0.1539, "tackles": 0.2847, "clearances": 0.1308, 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"Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6594, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "assists": 0.0798, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goals": 0.0522, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3914, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, 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{ "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.103033 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.038988 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.034675 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.032858 } ], "others_margin": -0.098053 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5041689872741699, "model_output": 0.5042, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.382 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0336 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0268 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0223 } ], "others": -0.1085, "total": 0.5042, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.381999 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.03359 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.026794 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.024892 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.022312 } ], "others_margin": -0.108512 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9978532791137695, "model_output": 6.9979, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1386 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1065 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.093 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0377 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0033, quality 0.573)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6257, "expected_assists": 0.0667, "assists": 0.066, "assist_rate": 0.066, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "goals": 0.0438, "goal_rate": 0.0438, "shots_on_target": 0.1445, "total_shots": 0.5059, "rating": 6.9979, "minutes": 22.45, "total_pass": 20.3882, "accurate_pass": 17.7901, "duels_won": 1.7023, "total_long_balls": 1.8382, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9303, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1982, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6028, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1873, "crosses_total": 0.7249, "crosses_accurate": 0.4833, "touches": 24.5578, "possession_lost": 3.5201, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.527, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1484, "interceptions": 0.1261, "tackles_won": 0.4799, "tackles": 1.0444, "clearances": 0.0, 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"margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.49731 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.055468 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.048441 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.045783 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.026347 } ], "others_margin": 0.014375 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.676164150238037, "model_output": 6.6762, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0671 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": 0.0025, "total": 6.6762, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.067075 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.015271 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.01142 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009119 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.008379 } ], "others_margin": 0.002428 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0042, quality 0.618)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0871, "goals": 0.0713, "goal_rate": 0.0713, "shots_on_target": 0.3147, "total_shots": 0.6677, "expected_assists": 0.0383, "key_pass": 0.3502, "rating": 6.6762, "minutes": 27.64, "total_pass": 9.2683, "accurate_pass": 7.2816, "duels_won": 1.9148, "total_long_balls": 0.1443, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0933, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2068, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6951, "crosses_total": 0.3413, "crosses_accurate": 0.01, "touches": 14.9412, "possession_lost": 3.792, "dispossessed": 0.3849, "duels_lost": 2.3788, "aerial_lost": 0.4055, "total_contest": 0.6207, "won_contest": 0.1736, "ball_recovery": 0.5695, "challenges_lost": 0.3674, "fouls": 0.774, "fouls_drawn": 0.7607, "assists": 0.2118, "assist_rate": 0.2118, "interceptions": 0.0977, "tackles_won": 0.3653, "tackles": 0.9104, "clearances": 0.0534, "blocks": 0.0164, "big_chances_created": 0.1444, "big_chances_missed": 0.2157, "xgot": 0.1242, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.2252, "total_progression": 26.3915, "progressive_carries": 1.2357, "shots_off_target": 0.353 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18700000, "quality_factor": 0.6181, "boost_factor": 1.0042, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0130)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0871, "goals": 0.0704, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "shots_on_target": 0.3139, "total_shots": 0.664, "expected_assists": 0.0383, "key_pass": 0.3502, "rating": 6.6762, "minutes": 27.64, "total_pass": 9.2683, "accurate_pass": 7.2816, "duels_won": 1.9148, "total_long_balls": 0.1443, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0933, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2068, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6951, "crosses_total": 0.3402, 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0.3852, "rating": 6.6762, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 10.1938, "accurate_pass": 8.0087, "duels_won": 2.106, "total_long_balls": 0.1587, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1026, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9264, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2638, "crosses_total": 0.3742, "crosses_accurate": 0.011, "touches": 16.4332, "possession_lost": 4.1707, "dispossessed": 0.3849, "duels_lost": 2.6163, "aerial_lost": 0.4055, "total_contest": 0.6827, "won_contest": 0.1909, "ball_recovery": 0.6264, "challenges_lost": 0.3674, "fouls": 0.8439, "fouls_drawn": 0.8459, "assist_rate": 0.2299, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1079, "tackles_won": 0.4002, "tackles": 1.0013, "clearances": 0.0587, "blocks": 0.018, "big_chances_created": 0.1588, "big_chances_missed": 0.2372, "xgot": 0.1366, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.747, "total_progression": 29.0268, "progressive_carries": 1.3591, "shots_off_target": 0.3882, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0622 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.0277, "total": 6.6365, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.062225 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026148 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.014984 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.01472 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.010044 } ], "others_margin": -0.027547 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9999, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goals": 0.0677, "goal_rate": 0.0677, "shots_on_target": 0.2507, "total_shots": 0.5704, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "key_pass": 0.2686, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 4.2801, "accurate_pass": 3.2745, "duels_won": 0.8029, "total_long_balls": 0.1336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4626, "crosses_total": 1.0788, "crosses_accurate": 0.2068, "touches": 10.5106, "possession_lost": 3.9777, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 1.8731, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.5417, "won_contest": 0.1469, "ball_recovery": 1.1911, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4167, "fouls_drawn": 0.1912, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1425, "tackles_won": 0.1897, "tackles": 0.2121, "clearances": 0.3375, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0429, "offsides": 0.108, "ball_carries": 3.9493, "total_progression": 26.6205, "progressive_carries": 1.2139, "shots_off_target": 0.3197 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 0.9999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goals": 0.0672, "goal_rate": 0.0672, "shots_on_target": 0.2507, "total_shots": 0.5699, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "key_pass": 0.2686, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 4.2801, "accurate_pass": 3.2745, "duels_won": 0.8029, "total_long_balls": 0.1336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4626, "crosses_total": 1.0763, "crosses_accurate": 0.2068, "touches": 10.5106, "possession_lost": 3.9777, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 1.8731, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.5417, "won_contest": 0.1469, "ball_recovery": 1.1911, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4172, "fouls_drawn": 0.1916, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1415, "tackles_won": 0.1883, "tackles": 0.2121, "clearances": 0.3375, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0429, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 3.9493, "total_progression": 26.6205, "progressive_carries": 1.2139, "shots_off_target": 0.3197 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 25, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2427, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.8 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0745, "goals": 0.0794, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "shots_on_target": 0.2962, "total_shots": 0.6739, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.8, "projection_minutes": 21.84, "minutes_scale": 1.1813, "appearance_probability": 0.532 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0745, "goals": 0.0794, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "shots_on_target": 0.2962, "total_shots": 0.6739, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 0.9383, xG scale 1.1361, xA scale 1.1190, team xA 0.85 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0846, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2962, "total_shots": 0.6739, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0576, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0394, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.066, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9383, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7621, "team_expected_assists": 0.8528, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1361, "xa_scale": 1.119, "opponent_lambda": 1.049, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.532 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0745, "after": 0.0846 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0846, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2962, "total_shots": 0.6739, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0576, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0394, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4507, "fifa_rank": 4264.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0846, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2962, "total_shots": 0.6739, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0576, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0432, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0394, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0432, "scorer_weight": 0.0468, "squad_weight_total": 1.0966, "weight_share": 0.0427, "finishing_factor": 1.0394, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Hugo González", "weight": 0.3148, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3148, "runner_up": "Ferrán Jutglà", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2296 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0846, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2962, "total_shots": 0.6739, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0576, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0432, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0169, "finishing_factor": 1.0394, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0169, "provider_weight": 0.0137, "squad_weight_total": 0.8959, "weight_share": 0.0153, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Hugo Álvarez", "weight": 0.1776, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1776, "runner_up": "Javier Rueda", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1157, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Hugo González" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Jones El-Abdellaoui": { "player_id": 1173575, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 39, "height": 184, "market_value": 8400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0846, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 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{ "player_name": "Santiago Ramos Mingo", "ranking": 4510 }, { "player_name": "Thelo Aasgaard", "ranking": 4511 }, { "player_name": "Richie Laryea", "ranking": 4512 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 25, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", 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"contribution": -0.2948 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0125 } ], "others": -0.0393, "total": 0.2686, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.575276 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.063345 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.062223 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.042675 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.039936 } ], "others_margin": -0.136453 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.636458873748779, "model_output": 6.6365, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0622 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.0277, "total": 6.6365, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.062225 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026148 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.014984 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.01472 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.010044 } ], "others_margin": -0.027547 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9999, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goals": 0.0677, "goal_rate": 0.0677, "shots_on_target": 0.2507, "total_shots": 0.5704, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "key_pass": 0.2686, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 4.2801, "accurate_pass": 3.2745, "duels_won": 0.8029, "total_long_balls": 0.1336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4626, "crosses_total": 1.0788, "crosses_accurate": 0.2068, "touches": 10.5106, "possession_lost": 3.9777, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 1.8731, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.5417, "won_contest": 0.1469, "ball_recovery": 1.1911, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4167, "fouls_drawn": 0.1912, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1425, "tackles_won": 0.1897, "tackles": 0.2121, "clearances": 0.3375, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0429, "offsides": 0.108, "ball_carries": 3.9493, "total_progression": 26.6205, "progressive_carries": 1.2139, "shots_off_target": 0.3197 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 0.9999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goals": 0.0672, "goal_rate": 0.0672, "shots_on_target": 0.2507, "total_shots": 0.5699, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "key_pass": 0.2686, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 4.2801, "accurate_pass": 3.2745, "duels_won": 0.8029, "total_long_balls": 0.1336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4626, "crosses_total": 1.0763, "crosses_accurate": 0.2068, "touches": 10.5106, "possession_lost": 3.9777, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 1.8731, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.5417, "won_contest": 0.1469, "ball_recovery": 1.1911, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4172, "fouls_drawn": 0.1916, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1415, "tackles_won": 0.1883, "tackles": 0.2121, "clearances": 0.3375, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0429, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 3.9493, "total_progression": 26.6205, "progressive_carries": 1.2139, "shots_off_target": 0.3197 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 25, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2427, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.8 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0745, "goals": 0.0794, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "shots_on_target": 0.2962, "total_shots": 0.6739, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.8, "projection_minutes": 21.84, "minutes_scale": 1.1813, "appearance_probability": 0.532 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0745, "goals": 0.0794, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "shots_on_target": 0.2962, "total_shots": 0.6739, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 0.9383, xG scale 1.1361, xA scale 1.1190, team xA 0.85 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0846, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2962, "total_shots": 0.6739, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0576, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0394, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.066, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9383, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7621, "team_expected_assists": 0.8528, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1361, "xa_scale": 1.119, "opponent_lambda": 1.049, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.532 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0745, "after": 0.0846 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0846, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2962, "total_shots": 0.6739, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0576, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0394, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4507, "fifa_rank": 4264.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0846, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2962, "total_shots": 0.6739, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0576, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0432, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0394, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0432, "scorer_weight": 0.0468, "squad_weight_total": 1.0966, "weight_share": 0.0427, "finishing_factor": 1.0394, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Hugo González", "weight": 0.3148, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3148, "runner_up": "Ferrán Jutglà", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2296 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0846, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2962, "total_shots": 0.6739, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0576, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0432, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0169, "finishing_factor": 1.0394, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0169, "provider_weight": 0.0137, "squad_weight_total": 0.8959, "weight_share": 0.0153, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Hugo Álvarez", "weight": 0.1776, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1776, "runner_up": "Javier Rueda", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1157, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Hugo González" ] } ] } } ] }, "Fer López": { "player_id": 1526628, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 186, "market_value": 17500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0601, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0504, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, 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"away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 8.5, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.4877, "expected_assists": 0.2606, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 53, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 14 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083656, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0466, "expected_assists": 0.0271, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, 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"is_starting_11", "margin": -0.417917 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.037069 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.034436 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.02261 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.018741 } ], "others_margin": -0.109966 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.736205577850342, "model_output": 6.7362, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1106 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0193 } ], "others": -0.0081, "total": 6.7362, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.110584 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.070786 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.024293 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021182 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.019301 } ], "others_margin": -0.008092 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0049, quality 0.606)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6688, "expected_assists": 0.0545, "assists": 0.0809, "assist_rate": 0.0809, "expected_goals": 0.045, "goals": 0.0529, "goal_rate": 0.0529, "shots_on_target": 0.1317, "total_shots": 0.3969, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.96, "total_pass": 10.2166, "accurate_pass": 7.8369, "duels_won": 1.1124, "total_long_balls": 1.2289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6384, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7555, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9591, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8779, "crosses_total": 0.1525, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1558, "possession_lost": 3.7668, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5607, "aerial_won": 0.0581, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2651, "tackles_won": 0.1539, "tackles": 0.2847, "clearances": 0.1308, "total_contest": 0.6707, "won_contest": 0.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6528, "fouls_drawn": 0.2673, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1418, "ball_carries": 4.5549, "total_progression": 28.963, "progressive_carries": 0.56, "shots_off_target": 0.2652 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17500000, "quality_factor": 0.6058, "boost_factor": 1.0049, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.0 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6594, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "assists": 0.0798, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goals": 0.0522, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3914, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1398, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.64, "projection_minutes": 22.96, "minutes_scale": 0.986, "appearance_probability": 0.529 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6594, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "assists": 0.0798, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goals": 0.0522, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3914, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1398, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 0.9383, xG scale 1.1361, xA scale 1.1190, team xA 0.85 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6594, "expected_assists": 0.0601, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0504, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3914, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1588, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0826, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.066, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9383, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7621, "team_expected_assists": 0.8528, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1361, "xa_scale": 1.119, "opponent_lambda": 1.049, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.529 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0444, "after": 0.0504 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0537, "after": 0.0601 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6594, "expected_assists": 0.0601, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0504, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3914, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1588, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0826, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3941, "fifa_rank": 3280.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6594, "expected_assists": 0.0601, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0504, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3914, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1588, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.026, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0826, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.026, "scorer_weight": 0.0289, "squad_weight_total": 1.0966, "weight_share": 0.0263, "finishing_factor": 1.0826, "appearance_weight": 0.529, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Hugo González", "weight": 0.3148, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3148, "runner_up": "Ferrán Jutglà", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2296 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6594, "expected_assists": 0.0601, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0504, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3914, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1588, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.247, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.026, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0309, "finishing_factor": 1.0826, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0309, "provider_weight": 0.0397, "squad_weight_total": 0.8959, "weight_share": 0.0444, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.529, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Hugo Álvarez", "weight": 0.1776, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1776, "runner_up": "Javier Rueda", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1157, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Hugo González" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.07, "expected_assists": 0.85, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 458, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 12, "avg_rating": 6.9, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Thomas Lemar", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Ilaix Moriba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.565, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.303, "xg_contribution": 0.0645, "xg_multiplier": 0.8282, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ilaix Moriba", "role": "CM", "market_value": 13700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.697 } ], "duel_analysis": "Thomas Lemar (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Ilaix Moriba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.83 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.065 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Gonzalo Villar", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Ilaix Moriba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.565, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.347, "xg_contribution": 0.0463, "xg_multiplier": 0.8929, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ilaix Moriba", "role": "CM", "market_value": 13700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.653 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gonzalo Villar (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Ilaix Moriba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.89 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.046 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Germán Valera", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 6200000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.477, "defenders": [ "Marcos Alonso" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.378, "xg_contribution": 0.0946, "xg_multiplier": 0.9379, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marcos Alonso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.622 } ], "duel_analysis": "Germán Valera (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Marcos Alonso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.095 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Fernando Niño", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1800000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Marcos Alonso", "Yoel Lago" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.442, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.209, "xg_contribution": 0.3632, "xg_multiplier": 1.0127, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marcos Alonso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.791 }, { "player": "Yoel Lago", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.791 } ], "duel_analysis": "Fernando Niño (ST) is evenly matched against Marcos Alonso and Yoel Lago in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.363 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Tete Morente", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 1600000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Marcos Alonso" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.388, "xg_contribution": 0.0899, "xg_multiplier": 0.953, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marcos Alonso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.612 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tete Morente (RW) is evenly matched against Marcos Alonso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.090 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Hugo Álvarez", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 7800000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.496, "defenders": [ "Víctor Chust" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.446, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.408, "xg_contribution": 0.0922, "xg_multiplier": 1.0111, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Víctor Chust", "role": "RB", "market_value": 3700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.592 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hugo Álvarez (LWB) is evenly matched against Víctor Chust in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.092 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ilaix Moriba", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 13700000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.565, "defenders": [ "Javi Morcillo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.515, "xg_contribution": 0.0582, "xg_multiplier": 1.0954, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Javi Morcillo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 515000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.485 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ilaix Moriba (CM) is slightly favored against Javi Morcillo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.10 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.058 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Sergio Carreira", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 11500000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.54, "defenders": [ "Javi Morcillo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.451, "xg_contribution": 0.0815, "xg_multiplier": 1.001, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Javi Morcillo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 515000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.549 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Carreira (CM) is evenly matched against Javi Morcillo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.081 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Aleix Febas", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 168, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Pedro Bigas" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "xg_contribution": 0.0689, "xg_multiplier": 0.9654, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pedro Bigas", "role": "LB", "market_value": 310000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.624 } ], "duel_analysis": "Aleix Febas (RWB) is evenly matched against Pedro Bigas in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.069 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ferrán Jutglà", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Roy Revivo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.457, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.443, "xg_contribution": 0.1864, "xg_multiplier": 0.9891, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Roy Revivo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.557 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ferrán Jutglà (SS) is evenly matched against Roy Revivo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.186 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Hugo González", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 720000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Roy Revivo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.457, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "xg_contribution": 0.2663, "xg_multiplier": 0.9627, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Roy Revivo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.575 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hugo González (SS) is evenly matched against Roy Revivo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.266 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Javier Rueda", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 6200000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.477, "defenders": [ "Javi Morcillo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.444, "xg_contribution": 0.05, "xg_multiplier": 0.9905, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Javi Morcillo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 515000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.556 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javier Rueda (CM) is evenly matched against Javi Morcillo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.050 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.437, "away_midfield_power": 0.559, "home_creative_power": 0.372, "away_creative_power": 0.479, "home_defensive_power": 0.372, "away_defensive_power": 0.47, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.439, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Thomas Lemar", "Gonzalo Villar", "Javi Morcillo" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Hugo Álvarez", "Sergio Carreira", "Ilaix Moriba", "Aleix Febas", "Javier Rueda" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.2, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.8, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.4, "home_throughball_threat": 1.7, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Thomas Lemar vs Ilaix Moriba", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.978, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.022 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "3-4-3", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 3-4-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.049, "away_lambda": 1.066, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "LW vs CB" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Thomas Lemar": { "opponents": [ "Ilaix Moriba", "Sergio Carreira", "Aleix Febas" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gonzalo Villar": { "opponents": [ "Ilaix Moriba", "Javier Rueda" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Germán Valera": { "opponents": [ "Marcos Alonso" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Fernando Niño": { "opponents": [ "Marcos Alonso", "Yoel Lago" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Tete Morente": { "opponents": [ "Marcos Alonso" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Víctor Chust": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Álvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Javi Morcillo": { "opponents": [ "Ilaix Moriba", "Sergio Carreira", "Javier Rueda", "Hugo Álvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pedro Bigas": { "opponents": [ "Aleix Febas" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Roy Revivo": { "opponents": [ "Ferrán Jutglà", "Hugo González" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Matías Dituro": { "opponents": [ "Ferrán Jutglà", "Hugo González" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Rubén Sánchez": { "opponents": [ "Ferrán Jutglà" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Ilaix Moriba": { "opponents": [ "Thomas Lemar", "Gonzalo Villar", "Javi Morcillo" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Marcos Alonso": { "opponents": [ "Germán Valera", "Fernando Niño", "Tete Morente" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Yoel Lago": { "opponents": [ "Fernando Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Hugo Álvarez": { "opponents": [ "Víctor Chust", "Javi Morcillo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sergio Carreira": { "opponents": [ "Javi Morcillo", "Thomas Lemar" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Aleix Febas": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Bigas", "Thomas Lemar" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ferrán Jutglà": { "opponents": [ "Roy Revivo" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Hugo González": { "opponents": [ "Roy Revivo" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Javier Rueda": { "opponents": [ "Javi Morcillo", "Gonzalo Villar" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ionuț Radu": { "opponents": [ "Germán Valera", "Tete Morente" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Sebastián Cáceres": { "opponents": [ "Germán Valera" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Thomas Lemar vs Ilaix Moriba). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.66, Away: 0.80. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9772, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.046, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.036, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0137, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0089, "home_midfield_factor": 0.978, "away_midfield_factor": 1.022, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4442, "away_avg_quality": 0.4845, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0403, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.7893, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.7534, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.0208, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1458, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0802, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0467, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.6585, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8314 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.978, "result": 0.8131 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8131 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 0.935 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9364, "result": 0.8756 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9772, "result": 0.8556 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0137, "result": 0.8674 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.046, "result": 0.9134 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9134, "result": 0.9134, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1458, "factor": 0.9533, "pre": 0.9134, "result": 0.8708 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8708 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.2024, "result": 1.0734 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.2, "result": 0.8743 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.8743, "result": 0.874, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.2, "result": 1.049 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.049, "result": 1.049, "available": false }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.049 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.049 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.049, "result": 1.049, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.049 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8035, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9401 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.022, "result": 0.9608 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9608 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9608 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.045, "result": 1.004 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.0147 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0089, "result": 1.0237 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.036, "result": 1.0597 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0597, "result": 1.0597, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1458, "factor": 1.0802, "pre": 1.0597, "result": 1.1447 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1447 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1496, "result": 1.2946 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.2, "result": 1.045 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.045, "result": 1.045, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.02, "result": 1.066 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.066, "result": 1.066, "available": false }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.066 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.066 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.066, "result": 1.066, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.066 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.2024, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1496, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Elche", "away_squad": "Celta Vigo", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.25, "away_goals_per90": 0.25, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.2, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.2, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.049, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.066, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.8743, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.045, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.049, "final_away_lambda": 1.066 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 18, "opponent_position": 14, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9364, "attack_index": 1.068, "defense_concede_index": 0.797, "form_multiplier": 0.991, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.63, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.21, "team_ppg": 1.02, "opponent_ppg": 1.17 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 14, "opponent_position": 18, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.045, "attack_index": 0.863, "defense_concede_index": 1.287, "form_multiplier": 1.009, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.31, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.96, "team_ppg": 1.17, "opponent_ppg": 1.02 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Elche vs Celta. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-3-3 vs 3-4-3 (duel lambdas: Home 0.874, Away 1.045). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.049, Away 1.066 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 7, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Elche", "away_squad": "Celta Vigo", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.25, "away_goals_per90": 0.25, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.2, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.2, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.049, "away_lambda": 1.066, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.874, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.045 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-10T13:34:43Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }