{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261011", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1489, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Real Sociedad", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2638, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1489 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1214 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1122 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1008 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0903 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1008, "0-1": 0.0796, "0-2": 0.0324, "0-3": 0.0087, "0-4": 0.0017, "1-0": 0.1489, "1-1": 0.1214, "1-2": 0.0485, "1-3": 0.013, "1-4": 0.0026, "2-0": 0.1122, "2-1": 0.0903, "2-2": 0.0363, "2-3": 0.0098, "2-4": 0.002, "3-0": 0.056, "3-1": 0.0451, "3-2": 0.0181, "3-3": 0.0049, "3-4": 0.001, "4-0": 0.021, "4-1": 0.0169, "4-2": 0.0068, "4-3": 0.0018, "5-0": 0.0063, "5-1": 0.0051, "5-2": 0.002, "5-3": 0.0005, "6-0": 0.0016, "6-1": 0.0013, "6-2": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5355, "draw": 0.2638, "away_win": 0.2007 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4048, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5952, "btts_yes": 0.4301, "btts_no": 0.5699, "home_clean_sheet": 0.4471, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2236 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.74, "MCR": 6.91, "ATR": 6.87, "GK": 7.1 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.8, "MCR": 7.04, "ATR": 6.74, "GK": 7.08 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Real Sociedad vs Deportivo. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Real Sociedad 4W-5D-1L vs Deportivo over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Mikel Oyarzabal", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Luka Sučić vs Lorenzo Amatucci will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.92, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.74, "home_lambda": 1.498, "away_lambda": 0.805, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 4, "away_wins": 1, "draws": 5, "home_multiplier": 1.0214, "away_multiplier": 0.9786 }, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5355, "draw": 0.2638, "away_win": 0.2007 }, "favorite": "Real Sociedad", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5355, "fair_spread": 0.693, "fair_total": 2.303, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Sociedad", "estimate": 1.498, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Deportivo", "estimate": 0.805, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4048, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4301, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Sociedad", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4471, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Deportivo", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2236, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Mikel Oyarzabal (Real Sociedad)", "estimate": 0.2773, "probability": 0.2422, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Bil Nsongo (Deportivo)", "estimate": 0.1319, "probability": 0.1236, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Sergio Gómez (Real Sociedad)", "estimate": 0.1533, "probability": 0.1421, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Mario Soriano (Deportivo)", "estimate": 0.1179, "probability": 0.1112, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.303, "expected_total_shots": 25, "expected_total_passes": 880, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.9, "possession_home_pct": 50.0, "possession_away_pct": 50.0, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Real Sociedad", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5355, "script": "Real Sociedad is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.69 goals and fair total 2.30.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Deportivo must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Real Sociedad lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Sociedad chance creation leans on Mikel Oyarzabal against José María Giménez, Lucas Noubi in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Real Sociedad: starters carry the main goal usage through Mikel Oyarzabal; bench watchlist: Jon Gorrotxategi, Orri Óskarsson.", "Deportivo: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Marc Casadó, Adama Traoré, David Mella.", "Assist usage should flow through Sergio Gómez; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Real Sociedad tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.15 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Deportivo is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Real Sociedad.", "Deportivo wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Real Sociedad": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Mikel Oyarzabal": { "player_id": 823622, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 181, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2773, "goal_rate": 0.2691, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1329, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9196, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 39, "possession_lost": 10.9803, "dispossessed": 1.0623, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.1707, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.3186, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1254, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.285, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "José María Giménez, Lucas Noubi", "opponent_faced": "José María Giménez, Lucas Noubi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2422, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1244, "finishing_factor": 1.0854, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416297, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5377, "expected_assists": 0.1525, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0366, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416319, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.09, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1853, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416310, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.1597, "expected_assists": 0.4623, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1764, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0735, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083719, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0072, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083687, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.2839, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083624, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0275, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 31, "combined_rank_score": 26.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 40.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.8667, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 13.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9196, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Joshua Kimmich", "ranking": 26 }, { "player_name": "Ljupche Doriev", "ranking": 27 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Romo", "ranking": 28 }, { "player_name": "Michael Olise", "ranking": 29 }, { "player_name": "Marko Arnautović", "ranking": 30 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Vitinha", "ranking": 32 }, { "player_name": "Fermín López", "ranking": 33 }, { "player_name": "Bianneider Tamayo", "ranking": 34 }, { "player_name": "Virgil van Dijk", "ranking": 35 }, { "player_name": "Remo Freuler", "ranking": 36 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", 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"scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0717 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0554 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0159 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0103 } ], "others": 0.0139, "total": 6.9196, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.071668 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.055376 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.01589 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.011244 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.010271 } ], 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0062, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2168, "goals": 0.2425, "goal_rate": 0.2425, "shots_on_target": 0.706, "total_shots": 1.9161, "expected_assists": 0.1147, "key_pass": 1.2453, "rating": 6.9196, "minutes": 78.87, "total_pass": 24.7406, "accurate_pass": 19.267, "duels_won": 3.7048, "total_long_balls": 1.1348, "accurate_long_balls": 0.733, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0627, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5994, "crosses_total": 0.328, "crosses_accurate": 0.0978, "touches": 38.651, "possession_lost": 10.9803, "dispossessed": 1.0623, "duels_lost": 4.0889, "aerial_lost": 0.8823, "total_contest": 1.3286, "won_contest": 0.4813, "ball_recovery": 2.9521, "challenges_lost": 0.4609, "fouls": 0.8648, "fouls_drawn": 1.1754, "assists": 0.1648, "assist_rate": 0.1648, "interceptions": 0.3599, 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0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0097 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0086 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.006 } ], "others": 0.004, "total": 0.1172, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456317, "item_margins": [ { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.107159 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.08156 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.079376 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.060225 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.051817 } ], "others_margin": 0.036005 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.17627976834774017, "model_output": 0.1763, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1335 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.086 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0966, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0289 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0229 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0207 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.017 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0182 } ], "others": 0.0151, "total": 0.2194, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.337105, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.26182 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.167288 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.130593 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.096074 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.093081 } ], "others_margin": 0.071465 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.6843835711479187, "model_output": 0.6844, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.108 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0886 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0978 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0717 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.073 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0447 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0199 } ], "others": 0.0533, "total": 0.6844, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.126872, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.263811 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.157036 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.138003 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.07596 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.032005 } ], "others_margin": 0.08082 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.7574453353881836, "model_output": 1.7574, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4391 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1667 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0666 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0464 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0432 } ], "others": 0.0054, "total": 1.7574, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.439133 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.166662 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.066629 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.046357 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.043168 } ], "others_margin": 0.005513 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.002084255218506, "model_output": 7.0021, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0722 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0386 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0265 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0263 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0163 } ], "others": -0.0282, "total": 7.0021, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.072231 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.038635 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.026485 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.026255 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.016345 } ], "others_margin": -0.028223 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0039, quality 0.593)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2288, "expected_assists": 0.1235, "assists": 0.1177, "assist_rate": 0.1177, "expected_goals": 0.177, "goals": 0.2203, "goal_rate": 0.2203, "shots_on_target": 0.6871, "total_shots": 1.7644, "rating": 7.0021, "minutes": 83.49, "total_pass": 35.3383, "accurate_pass": 30.6571, "duels_won": 3.4276, "total_long_balls": 2.9924, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2321, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7721, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.885, "crosses_total": 0.6689, "crosses_accurate": 0.0849, "touches": 46.6458, "possession_lost": 8.1278, "dispossessed": 0.6643, "duels_lost": 3.966, "aerial_won": 0.6265, "aerial_lost": 0.7916, "interceptions": 0.4433, "tackles_won": 0.678, "tackles": 1.3204, "clearances": 0.4944, "total_contest": 2.0277, "won_contest": 1.1058, "challenges_lost": 0.9242, "fouls": 0.7018, "fouls_drawn": 0.3749, "blocks": 0.0521, "big_chances_created": 0.3254, "big_chances_missed": 0.2688, "xgot": 0.3691, "ball_carries": 18.8226, "total_progression": 53.8266, "progressive_carries": 2.1885, "shots_off_target": 1.0773 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16300000, "quality_factor": 0.5932, "boost_factor": 1.0039, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0198)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2288, "expected_assists": 0.1235, "assists": 0.1154, "assist_rate": 0.1154, "expected_goals": 0.177, "goals": 0.2219, "goal_rate": 0.2219, "shots_on_target": 0.6853, "total_shots": 1.7704, "rating": 7.0021, "minutes": 83.49, "total_pass": 35.3383, "accurate_pass": 30.6571, "duels_won": 3.4276, "total_long_balls": 2.9924, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2321, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7721, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.885, "crosses_total": 0.6912, "crosses_accurate": 0.0849, "touches": 46.6458, "possession_lost": 8.1278, "dispossessed": 0.6643, "duels_lost": 3.966, "aerial_won": 0.6265, "aerial_lost": 0.7916, "interceptions": 0.4345, "tackles_won": 0.6764, "tackles": 1.3204, "clearances": 0.4944, "total_contest": 2.0277, "won_contest": 1.1058, "challenges_lost": 0.9242, "fouls": 0.7057, "fouls_drawn": 0.3734, "blocks": 0.0521, "big_chances_created": 0.3254, "big_chances_missed": 0.2688, "xgot": 0.3691, "ball_carries": 18.8226, "total_progression": 53.8266, "progressive_carries": 2.1885, "shots_off_target": 1.0773 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0198, "history_matches": 29, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9277, "prior_reliability": 0.2067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.245961 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.09704 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.064023 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.041816 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.034721 } ], "others_margin": 0.109739 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.850398540496826, "model_output": 6.8504, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0549 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0192 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9988, quality 0.471)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1471, "goals": 0.1606, "goal_rate": 0.1606, "shots_on_target": 0.5842, "total_shots": 1.7188, "expected_assists": 0.1206, "key_pass": 1.1346, "rating": 6.8504, "minutes": 77.14, "total_pass": 25.3108, "accurate_pass": 20.4457, "duels_won": 4.3073, "total_long_balls": 2.1669, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5318, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7418, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.7589, "crosses_total": 2.1903, "crosses_accurate": 0.3546, "touches": 42.8136, "possession_lost": 11.8847, "dispossessed": 1.1745, "duels_lost": 5.58, "aerial_lost": 1.1789, "total_contest": 1.9865, "won_contest": 0.9888, "ball_recovery": 2.9702, "challenges_lost": 1.332, "fouls": 0.9153, "fouls_drawn": 1.8462, "assists": 0.116, "assist_rate": 0.116, "interceptions": 0.2012, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9992, quality 0.482)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5639, "expected_assists": 0.1323, "assists": 0.1179, "assist_rate": 0.1179, "expected_goals": 0.1168, "goals": 0.1299, "goal_rate": 0.1299, "shots_on_target": 0.3932, "total_shots": 1.1776, "rating": 6.9394, "minutes": 85.73, "total_pass": 45.9889, "accurate_pass": 39.7614, "duels_won": 2.4979, "total_long_balls": 3.119, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1689, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3727, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9325, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.6162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.8288, "crosses_total": 2.9668, "crosses_accurate": 0.6504, "touches": 57.7756, "possession_lost": 10.6664, "dispossessed": 0.7176, "duels_lost": 3.0338, "aerial_won": 0.1694, "aerial_lost": 0.2816, "interceptions": 0.5089, "tackles_won": 0.3931, "tackles": 1.0134, "clearances": 0.6057, "total_contest": 1.0258, "won_contest": 0.5212, "challenges_lost": 0.9673, "fouls": 0.6296, "fouls_drawn": 0.794, "blocks": 0.2497, "big_chances_created": 0.3616, "big_chances_missed": 0.1017, "xgot": 0.1788, "ball_carries": 13.7088, "total_progression": 42.1634, "progressive_carries": 0.7189, "shots_off_target": 0.7844 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6600000, "quality_factor": 0.4818, "boost_factor": 0.9992, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0111)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5639, "expected_assists": 0.1323, "assists": 0.1166, "assist_rate": 0.1166, "expected_goals": 0.1168, "goals": 0.1285, "goal_rate": 0.1285, "shots_on_target": 0.3888, "total_shots": 1.1691, "rating": 6.9394, "minutes": 85.73, "total_pass": 45.9889, "accurate_pass": 39.7614, "duels_won": 2.4979, "total_long_balls": 3.119, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1689, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3727, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9325, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.6162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.8288, "crosses_total": 2.9661, "crosses_accurate": 0.6504, "touches": 57.7756, "possession_lost": 10.6664, "dispossessed": 0.7176, "duels_lost": 3.0338, "aerial_won": 0.1694, "aerial_lost": 0.2816, "interceptions": 0.5124, "tackles_won": 0.4025, "tackles": 1.0134, "clearances": 0.6057, "total_contest": 1.0258, "won_contest": 0.5212, "challenges_lost": 0.9673, "fouls": 0.6226, "fouls_drawn": 0.7898, "blocks": 0.2497, "big_chances_created": 0.3616, "big_chances_missed": 0.1017, "xgot": 0.1788, "ball_carries": 13.7088, "total_progression": 42.1634, "progressive_carries": 0.7189, "shots_off_target": 0.7844 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0111, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9526, "prior_reliability": 0.1533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.3931, "after": 0.4025 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1776, "after": 1.1691 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.6296, "after": 0.6226 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5639, "expected_assists": 0.1323, "assists": 0.1166, "assist_rate": 0.1166, "expected_goals": 0.1168, "goals": 0.1285, "goal_rate": 0.1285, "shots_on_target": 0.3888, "total_shots": 1.1732, "rating": 6.9394, "minutes": 85.73, "total_pass": 45.9889, "accurate_pass": 39.7614, "duels_won": 2.4979, "total_long_balls": 3.119, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1689, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3727, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9325, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.6162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.8288, "crosses_total": 2.9661, "crosses_accurate": 0.6504, "touches": 57.7756, "possession_lost": 10.6664, "dispossessed": 0.7176, "duels_lost": 3.0338, "aerial_won": 0.1694, "aerial_lost": 0.2816, "interceptions": 0.5124, "tackles_won": 0.4025, "tackles": 1.0134, "clearances": 0.6057, "total_contest": 1.0258, "won_contest": 0.5212, "challenges_lost": 0.9673, "fouls": 0.6226, "fouls_drawn": 0.7898, "blocks": 0.2497, "big_chances_created": 0.3616, "big_chances_missed": 0.1017, "xgot": 0.1788, "ball_carries": 13.7088, "total_progression": 42.1634, "progressive_carries": 0.7189, "shots_off_target": 0.7844 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5639, "expected_assists": 0.1323, "assists": 0.1166, "assist_rate": 0.1166, "expected_goals": 0.1237, "goals": 0.136, "goal_rate": 0.136, "shots_on_target": 0.4116, "total_shots": 1.2421, "rating": 6.9394, "minutes": 85.73, "total_pass": 45.9889, "accurate_pass": 39.7614, "duels_won": 2.4979, "total_long_balls": 3.119, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1689, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3727, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9325, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.6162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.8288, "crosses_total": 2.9661, "crosses_accurate": 0.6504, "touches": 57.7756, "possession_lost": 10.6664, "dispossessed": 0.7176, "duels_lost": 3.0338, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2816, "interceptions": 0.5124, "tackles_won": 0.4025, "tackles": 1.0134, "clearances": 0.6057, "total_contest": 1.0258, "won_contest": 0.5212, "challenges_lost": 0.9673, "fouls": 0.6226, "fouls_drawn": 0.7898, "blocks": 0.2497, "big_chances_created": 0.3616, "big_chances_missed": 0.1077, "xgot": 0.1893, "ball_carries": 13.7088, "total_progression": 42.1634, "progressive_carries": 0.7189, "shots_off_target": 0.8304, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0587, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.5, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ximo Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Ximo Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ximo Navarro", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "duel_win_rate": 0.5, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0587, "skill_edge": 0.024, "height_edge": 0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.4907, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ximo Navarro", "market_value": 95000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.1237 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.1694, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1732, "after": 1.2421 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7844, "after": 0.8304 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3888, "after": 0.4116 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1788, "after": 0.1893 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1285, "after": 0.136 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1168, "after": 0.1237 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1017, "after": 0.1077 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.3182, xG scale 1.1364, xA scale 1.1588, team xA 0.97 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5639, "expected_assists": 0.1533, "assist_rate": 0.1166, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1406, "goal_rate": 0.136, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4116, "total_shots": 1.2421, "rating": 6.9394, "minutes": 85.73, "total_pass": 45.9889, "accurate_pass": 39.7614, "duels_won": 2.4979, "total_long_balls": 3.119, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1689, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3727, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9325, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.6162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.8288, "crosses_total": 2.9661, "crosses_accurate": 0.6504, "touches": 57.7756, "possession_lost": 10.6664, "dispossessed": 0.7176, "duels_lost": 3.0338, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2816, "interceptions": 0.5124, "tackles_won": 0.4025, "tackles": 1.0134, "clearances": 0.6057, "total_contest": 1.0258, "won_contest": 0.5212, "challenges_lost": 0.9673, "fouls": 0.6226, "fouls_drawn": 0.7898, "blocks": 0.2497, "big_chances_created": 0.3616, "big_chances_missed": 0.1077, "xgot": 0.2151, "ball_carries": 13.7088, "total_progression": 42.1634, "progressive_carries": 0.7189, "shots_off_target": 0.8304, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0587, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.5, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ximo Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Ximo Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0708, "creation_factor": 0.9139 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.498, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3182, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8402, "team_expected_assists": 0.9737, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1364, "xa_scale": 1.1588, "opponent_lambda": 0.805, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1237, "after": 0.1406 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1323, "after": 0.1533 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5639, "expected_assists": 0.1533, "assist_rate": 0.1166, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1406, "goal_rate": 0.136, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4116, "total_shots": 1.2421, "rating": 6.9394, "minutes": 85.73, "total_pass": 45.9889, "accurate_pass": 39.7614, "duels_won": 2.4979, "total_long_balls": 3.119, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1689, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3727, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9325, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.6162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.8288, "crosses_total": 2.9661, "crosses_accurate": 0.6504, "touches": 57.7756, "possession_lost": 10.6664, "dispossessed": 0.7176, "duels_lost": 3.0338, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2816, "interceptions": 0.5124, "tackles_won": 0.4025, "tackles": 1.0134, "clearances": 0.6057, "total_contest": 1.0258, "won_contest": 0.5212, "challenges_lost": 0.9673, "fouls": 0.6226, "fouls_drawn": 0.7898, "blocks": 0.2497, "big_chances_created": 0.3616, "big_chances_missed": 0.1077, "xgot": 0.2151, "ball_carries": 13.7088, "total_progression": 42.1634, "progressive_carries": 0.7189, "shots_off_target": 0.8304, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0587, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.5, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ximo Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Ximo Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0708, "creation_factor": 0.9139, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1664, "fifa_rank": 958.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5639, "expected_assists": 0.1533, "assist_rate": 0.1166, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1406, "goal_rate": 0.136, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4116, "total_shots": 1.2421, "rating": 6.9394, "minutes": 85.73, "total_pass": 45.9889, "accurate_pass": 39.7614, "duels_won": 2.4979, "total_long_balls": 3.119, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1689, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3727, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9325, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.6162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.8288, "crosses_total": 2.9661, "crosses_accurate": 0.6504, "touches": 57.7756, "possession_lost": 10.6664, "dispossessed": 0.7176, "duels_lost": 3.0338, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2816, "interceptions": 0.5124, "tackles_won": 0.4025, "tackles": 1.0134, "clearances": 0.6057, "total_contest": 1.0258, "won_contest": 0.5212, "challenges_lost": 0.9673, "fouls": 0.6226, "fouls_drawn": 0.7898, "blocks": 0.2497, "big_chances_created": 0.3616, "big_chances_missed": 0.1077, "xgot": 0.2151, "ball_carries": 13.7088, "total_progression": 42.1634, "progressive_carries": 0.7189, "shots_off_target": 0.8304, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0587, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.5, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ximo Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Ximo Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1312, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0708, "creation_factor": 0.9139, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1312, "scorer_weight": 0.1506, "squad_weight_total": 1.6252, "weight_share": 0.0926, "finishing_factor": 1.0708, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.301, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.301, "runner_up": "Luka Sučić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2755 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5639, "expected_assists": 0.1533, "assist_rate": 0.1166, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1406, "goal_rate": 0.136, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4116, "total_shots": 1.2421, "rating": 6.9394, "minutes": 85.73, "total_pass": 45.9889, "accurate_pass": 39.7614, "duels_won": 2.4979, "total_long_balls": 3.119, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1689, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3727, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9325, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.6162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.8288, "crosses_total": 2.9661, "crosses_accurate": 0.6504, "touches": 57.7756, "possession_lost": 10.6664, "dispossessed": 0.7176, "duels_lost": 3.0338, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2816, "interceptions": 0.5124, "tackles_won": 0.4025, "tackles": 1.0134, "clearances": 0.6057, "total_contest": 1.0258, "won_contest": 0.5212, "challenges_lost": 0.9673, "fouls": 0.6226, "fouls_drawn": 0.7898, "blocks": 0.2497, "big_chances_created": 0.3616, "big_chances_missed": 0.1077, "xgot": 0.2151, "ball_carries": 13.7088, "total_progression": 42.1634, "progressive_carries": 0.7189, "shots_off_target": 0.8304, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0587, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.5, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ximo Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Ximo Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1312, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1421, "finishing_factor": 1.0708, "creation_factor": 0.9139, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, 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"contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": -0.0465, "total": 6.7968, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.02937 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.020221 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016276 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011035 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010978 } ], "others_margin": -0.046486 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9980, quality 0.470)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5358, "expected_assists": 0.0371, "assists": 0.046, "assist_rate": 0.046, "expected_goals": 0.0483, "goals": 0.0708, "goal_rate": 0.0708, "shots_on_target": 0.2107, "total_shots": 0.6752, "rating": 6.7968, "minutes": 73.65, "total_pass": 38.8914, "accurate_pass": 33.1535, "duels_won": 4.988, "total_long_balls": 1.8538, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9653, "total_own_half_passes": 17.1722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4234, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.73, "crosses_total": 0.0484, "crosses_accurate": 0.0243, "touches": 50.0964, "possession_lost": 8.4193, "dispossessed": 1.5145, "duels_lost": 5.1683, "aerial_won": 1.643, "aerial_lost": 1.4444, "interceptions": 0.1876, "tackles_won": 0.6395, "tackles": 1.391, "clearances": 0.9261, "total_contest": 0.6485, "won_contest": 0.3589, "challenges_lost": 0.549, "fouls": 1.3708, "fouls_drawn": 1.5951, "blocks": 0.3588, "big_chances_created": 0.0889, "big_chances_missed": 0.0335, "xgot": 0.0704, "ball_carries": 15.4293, "total_progression": 25.1782, "progressive_carries": 0.3676, "shots_off_target": 0.4645 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5600000, "quality_factor": 0.4695, "boost_factor": 0.998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 21, "history_shrink": 0.1923, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0208)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5358, "expected_assists": 0.0371, "assists": 0.045, "assist_rate": 0.045, "expected_goals": 0.0483, "goals": 0.0693, "goal_rate": 0.0693, "shots_on_target": 0.2131, "total_shots": 0.668, "rating": 6.7968, "minutes": 73.65, "total_pass": 38.8914, "accurate_pass": 33.1535, "duels_won": 4.988, "total_long_balls": 1.8538, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9653, "total_own_half_passes": 17.1722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4234, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.73, "crosses_total": 0.0474, "crosses_accurate": 0.0243, "touches": 50.0964, "possession_lost": 8.4193, "dispossessed": 1.5145, "duels_lost": 5.1683, "aerial_won": 1.643, "aerial_lost": 1.4444, "interceptions": 0.1905, "tackles_won": 0.6466, "tackles": 1.391, "clearances": 0.9261, "total_contest": 0.6485, "won_contest": 0.3589, "challenges_lost": 0.549, "fouls": 1.3832, "fouls_drawn": 1.6028, "blocks": 0.3588, "big_chances_created": 0.0889, "big_chances_missed": 0.0335, "xgot": 0.0704, "ball_carries": 15.4293, "total_progression": 25.1782, "progressive_carries": 0.3676, "shots_off_target": 0.4645 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0208, "history_matches": 21, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8183, "prior_reliability": 0.1667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.3708, "after": 1.3832 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.5951, "after": 1.6028 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6752, "after": 0.668 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.6395, "after": 0.6466 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5358, "expected_assists": 0.0371, "assists": 0.045, "assist_rate": 0.045, "expected_goals": 0.0483, "goals": 0.0693, "goal_rate": 0.0693, "shots_on_target": 0.2131, "total_shots": 0.6776, "rating": 6.7968, "minutes": 73.65, "total_pass": 38.8914, "accurate_pass": 33.1535, "duels_won": 4.988, "total_long_balls": 1.8538, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9653, "total_own_half_passes": 17.1722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4234, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.73, "crosses_total": 0.0474, "crosses_accurate": 0.0243, "touches": 50.0964, "possession_lost": 8.4193, "dispossessed": 1.5145, "duels_lost": 5.1683, "aerial_won": 1.643, 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0.9653, "total_own_half_passes": 17.1722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4234, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.73, "crosses_total": 0.0474, "crosses_accurate": 0.0243, "touches": 50.0964, "possession_lost": 8.4193, "dispossessed": 1.5145, "duels_lost": 5.1683, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.4444, "interceptions": 0.1905, "tackles_won": 0.6466, "tackles": 1.391, "clearances": 0.9261, "total_contest": 0.6485, "won_contest": 0.3589, "challenges_lost": 0.549, "fouls": 1.3832, "fouls_drawn": 1.6028, "blocks": 0.3588, "big_chances_created": 0.0889, "big_chances_missed": 0.035, "xgot": 0.0734, "ball_carries": 15.4293, "total_progression": 25.1782, "progressive_carries": 0.3676, "shots_off_target": 0.4846, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0433, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "opponent_faced": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0433, "skill_edge": -0.0185, "height_edge": 0.048, "attacker_skill": 0.4772, "defender_skill": 0.5183, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "market_value": 8199999, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.5183 } ], "xg_override": 0.0504 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.643, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6776, "after": 0.7069 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4645, "after": 0.4846 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2131, "after": 0.2223 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.3182, xG scale 1.1364, xA scale 1.1588, team xA 0.97 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5358, "expected_assists": 0.043, "assist_rate": 0.045, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0573, "goal_rate": 0.0723, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2223, "total_shots": 0.7069, "rating": 6.7968, "minutes": 73.65, "total_pass": 38.8914, "accurate_pass": 33.1535, "duels_won": 4.988, "total_long_balls": 1.8538, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9653, "total_own_half_passes": 17.1722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4234, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.73, "crosses_total": 0.0474, "crosses_accurate": 0.0243, "touches": 50.0964, "possession_lost": 8.4193, "dispossessed": 1.5145, "duels_lost": 5.1683, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.4444, "interceptions": 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1.3182, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8402, "team_expected_assists": 0.9737, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1364, "xa_scale": 1.1588, "opponent_lambda": 0.805, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0504, "after": 0.0573 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0371, "after": 0.043 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5358, "expected_assists": 0.043, "assist_rate": 0.045, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0573, "goal_rate": 0.0723, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2223, "total_shots": 0.7069, "rating": 6.7968, "minutes": 73.65, "total_pass": 38.8914, "accurate_pass": 33.1535, "duels_won": 4.988, "total_long_balls": 1.8538, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9653, "total_own_half_passes": 17.1722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4234, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.73, "crosses_total": 0.0474, "crosses_accurate": 0.0243, "touches": 50.0964, "possession_lost": 8.4193, "dispossessed": 1.5145, "duels_lost": 5.1683, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.4444, "interceptions": 0.1905, "tackles_won": 0.6466, "tackles": 1.391, "clearances": 0.9261, "total_contest": 0.6485, "won_contest": 0.3589, "challenges_lost": 0.549, "fouls": 1.3832, "fouls_drawn": 1.6028, "blocks": 0.3588, "big_chances_created": 0.0889, "big_chances_missed": 0.035, "xgot": 0.0834, "ball_carries": 15.4293, "total_progression": 25.1782, "progressive_carries": 0.3676, "shots_off_target": 0.4846, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0433, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "opponent_faced": 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0.008199 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3043825924396515, "model_output": 0.3044, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1037 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0506 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0699, "total": 0.3044, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.10366 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050586 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017663 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0245, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7862, "tackles": 1.4685, "tackles_won": 0.8905, "clearances": 3.434, "aerial_won": 1.0808, "total_shots": 0.3119, "rating": 6.6459, "minutes": 83.49, "total_pass": 51.0478, "accurate_pass": 48.3636, "duels_won": 3.3543, "total_long_balls": 2.7947, "accurate_long_balls": 1.135, "total_own_half_passes": 35.6902, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.92, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.3576, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4436, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.6158, "possession_lost": 3.3105, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.372, "aerial_lost": 0.686, "total_contest": 0.686, "won_contest": 0.3982, "ball_recovery": 2.0998, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3982, "fouls_drawn": 0.7367, "blocks": 0.686, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7862, "tackles": 1.4685, "tackles_won": 0.8905, "clearances": 3.434, "aerial_won": 1.0808, "total_shots": 0.3119, "rating": 6.6459, "minutes": 83.49, "total_pass": 51.0478, "accurate_pass": 48.3636, "duels_won": 3.3543, "total_long_balls": 2.7947, "accurate_long_balls": 1.135, "total_own_half_passes": 35.6902, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.92, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.3576, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4436, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.6158, "possession_lost": 3.3105, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.372, "aerial_lost": 0.686, "total_contest": 0.686, "won_contest": 0.3982, "ball_recovery": 2.0998, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3982, "fouls_drawn": 0.7367, "blocks": 0.686, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1425, "expected_assists": 0.0105, 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0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0835, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "shots_on_target": 0.3106, "big_chances_created": 0.264, "xgot": 0.0381, "ball_carries": 14.9759, "total_progression": 71.1226, "progressive_carries": 1.2876, "key_pass": 0.7991, "shots_off_target": 0.4021 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1100000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9899, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0217)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9675, "tackles": 1.3492, "tackles_won": 0.8114, "clearances": 5.2616, "aerial_won": 1.9513, "total_shots": 0.6973, "rating": 6.7701, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.0605, "accurate_pass": 45.3372, "duels_won": 4.0274, "total_long_balls": 6.3769, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0104, "total_own_half_passes": 32.135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.4192, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9255, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.918, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.2233, "possession_lost": 6.9842, "dispossessed": 0.4152, "duels_lost": 3.3512, "aerial_lost": 0.5747, "total_contest": 0.812, "won_contest": 0.5014, "ball_recovery": 3.5107, "challenges_lost": 0.9899, "fouls": 1.0595, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.3808, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0835, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "shots_on_target": 0.3039, "big_chances_created": 0.264, "xgot": 0.0381, "ball_carries": 14.9759, "total_progression": 71.1226, "progressive_carries": 1.2876, "key_pass": 0.7991, "shots_off_target": 0.4021 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0217, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.9446, "after": 0.9675 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8294, "after": 0.8114 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7127, "after": 0.6973 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3106, "after": 0.3039 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9675, "tackles": 1.3492, "tackles_won": 0.8114, "clearances": 5.2616, "aerial_won": 1.9513, "total_shots": 0.706, "rating": 6.7701, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.0605, "accurate_pass": 45.3372, "duels_won": 4.0274, "total_long_balls": 6.3769, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0104, "total_own_half_passes": 32.135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.4192, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9255, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.918, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.2233, "possession_lost": 6.9842, "dispossessed": 0.4152, "duels_lost": 3.3512, "aerial_lost": 0.5747, "total_contest": 0.812, "won_contest": 0.5014, "ball_recovery": 3.5107, "challenges_lost": 0.9899, "fouls": 1.0595, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.3808, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0835, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "shots_on_target": 0.3039, "big_chances_created": 0.264, "xgot": 0.0381, "ball_carries": 14.9759, "total_progression": 71.1226, "progressive_carries": 1.2876, "key_pass": 0.7991, "shots_off_target": 0.4021 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9675, "tackles": 1.3492, "tackles_won": 0.8114, "clearances": 5.2616, "aerial_won": 1.9513, "total_shots": 0.706, "rating": 6.7701, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.0605, "accurate_pass": 45.3372, "duels_won": 4.0274, "total_long_balls": 6.3769, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0104, "total_own_half_passes": 32.135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.4192, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9255, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.918, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.2233, "possession_lost": 6.9842, "dispossessed": 0.4152, "duels_lost": 3.3512, "aerial_lost": 0.5747, "total_contest": 0.812, "won_contest": 0.5014, "ball_recovery": 3.5107, "challenges_lost": 0.9899, "fouls": 1.0595, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.3808, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0835, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "shots_on_target": 0.3039, "big_chances_created": 0.264, "xgot": 0.0381, "ball_carries": 14.9759, "total_progression": 71.1226, "progressive_carries": 1.2876, "key_pass": 0.7991, "shots_off_target": 0.4021, "opponent_faced": "Luismi Cruz", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Luismi Cruz", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.3182, xG scale 1.1364, xA scale 1.1588, team xA 0.97 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9675, "tackles": 1.3492, "tackles_won": 0.8114, "clearances": 5.2616, "aerial_won": 1.9513, "total_shots": 0.706, "rating": 6.7701, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.0605, "accurate_pass": 45.3372, "duels_won": 4.0274, "total_long_balls": 6.3769, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0104, "total_own_half_passes": 32.135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.4192, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9255, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.918, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.2233, "possession_lost": 6.9842, "dispossessed": 0.4152, "duels_lost": 3.3512, "aerial_lost": 0.5747, "total_contest": 0.812, "won_contest": 0.5014, "ball_recovery": 3.5107, "challenges_lost": 0.9899, "fouls": 1.0595, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.3808, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0949, "expected_assists": 0.049, "shots_on_target": 0.3039, "big_chances_created": 0.264, "xgot": 0.0433, "ball_carries": 14.9759, "total_progression": 71.1226, "progressive_carries": 1.2876, "key_pass": 0.7991, "shots_off_target": 0.4021, "opponent_faced": "Luismi Cruz", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.498, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3182, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8402, "team_expected_assists": 0.9737, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1364, "xa_scale": 1.1588, "opponent_lambda": 0.805, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0835, "after": 0.0949 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0423, "after": 0.049 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 67.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9675, "tackles": 1.3492, "tackles_won": 0.8114, "clearances": 5.2616, "aerial_won": 1.9513, "total_shots": 0.706, "rating": 6.7701, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.0605, "accurate_pass": 45.3372, "duels_won": 4.0274, "total_long_balls": 6.3769, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0104, "total_own_half_passes": 32.135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.4192, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9255, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.918, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.2233, "possession_lost": 6.9842, "dispossessed": 0.4152, "duels_lost": 3.3512, "aerial_lost": 0.5747, "total_contest": 0.812, "won_contest": 0.5014, "ball_recovery": 3.5107, "challenges_lost": 0.9899, "fouls": 1.0595, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.3808, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0949, "expected_assists": 0.049, "shots_on_target": 0.3039, "big_chances_created": 0.264, "xgot": 0.0433, "ball_carries": 14.9759, "total_progression": 71.1226, "progressive_carries": 1.2876, "key_pass": 0.7991, "shots_off_target": 0.4021, "opponent_faced": "Luismi Cruz", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6872, "fifa_rank": 9423.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 67.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9675, "tackles": 1.3492, "tackles_won": 0.8114, "clearances": 5.2616, "aerial_won": 1.9513, "total_shots": 0.706, "rating": 6.7701, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.0605, "accurate_pass": 45.3372, "duels_won": 4.0274, "total_long_balls": 6.3769, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0104, "total_own_half_passes": 32.135, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.4192, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9255, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.918, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.2233, "possession_lost": 6.9842, "dispossessed": 0.4152, "duels_lost": 3.3512, "aerial_lost": 0.5747, "total_contest": 0.812, "won_contest": 0.5014, "ball_recovery": 3.5107, "challenges_lost": 0.9899, "fouls": 1.0595, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.3808, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0949, "expected_assists": 0.049, "shots_on_target": 0.3039, "big_chances_created": 0.264, "xgot": 0.0433, 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Remiro": { "player_id": 791773, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 191, "market_value": 9600000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0779, "rating": 7.0955, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 27, "total_long_balls": 21, "accurate_long_balls": 9, "touches": 49, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.5904, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 12.1995, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8228, "shots_faced": 7.6, "expected_saves": 1.85, "high_pressure_saves": 0.64, "opponent_faced": "Bil Nsongo, Jonathan Asp Jensen", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 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"goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.14019779860973358, "model_output": -0.1402, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0412 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0404 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0375 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0216, "items": [ { "name": "punches", "contribution": -0.0632 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0295 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0177 } ], "others": -0.0428, "total": -0.1402, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.021558, "item_margins": [ { "name": "punches", "margin": -0.063175 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.029533 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.021946 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 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{ "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8018 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1139 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0418 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0308 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0214 } ], "others": -0.1353, "total": 0.4612, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320928, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.871557 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.180231 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.062494 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.048682 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.035302 } ], "others_margin": -0.257052 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.23317477107048035, "model_output": 0.2332, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2611 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0217 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0159 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0421, "total": 0.2332, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.261066 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.021654 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.015887 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.013796 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.012662 } ], "others_margin": -0.042078 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.758185863494873, "model_output": 6.7582, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", 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"role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.368, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.153422, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.801189 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.03914 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.038108 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.036863 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.033 } ], "others_margin": -0.047758 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.765690803527832, "model_output": 0.7657, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2968 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0817 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0344 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0202 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4412, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.2168 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.3067 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1085 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", 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"contribution": -0.2315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0087 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0068 } ], "others": -0.0001, "total": 0.2344, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.231518 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01823 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.009961 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.008726 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.006817 } ], "others_margin": -1.4e-05 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.636580944061279, "model_output": 6.6366, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0322 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0264 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0497, "total": 6.6366, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.032175 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.026379 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.014202 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014054 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.012823 } ], "others_margin": -0.049755 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 15, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0074, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8398, "total_progression": 7.8502, "progressive_carries": 0.2451, "key_pass": 0.0917, "shots_off_target": 0.235 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11600000, "quality_factor": 0.5411, "boost_factor": 1.0027, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 15, "history_shrink": 0.25, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.6 to 14.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.32)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3803, "tackles": 0.5522, "tackles_won": 0.3534, "clearances": 0.7353, "aerial_won": 0.4487, "total_shots": 0.2252, "rating": 6.6366, "minutes": 13.98, "total_pass": 3.8577, "accurate_pass": 3.3669, "duels_won": 0.8505, "total_long_balls": 0.4885, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2973, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2808, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.2061, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5768, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1607, "crosses_total": 0.1912, "crosses_accurate": 0.0878, "touches": 8.5898, "possession_lost": 1.6362, "dispossessed": 0.369, "duels_lost": 0.9591, "aerial_lost": 0.1494, "total_contest": 0.2309, "won_contest": 0.0878, "ball_recovery": 0.6851, "challenges_lost": 0.0917, "fouls": 0.2319, "fouls_drawn": 0.1215, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0071, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.762, "total_progression": 7.5182, "progressive_carries": 0.2347, "key_pass": 0.0878, "shots_off_target": 0.2251, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.317, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.98 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.98, "projection_minutes": 14.6, "minutes_scale": 0.9577, "appearance_probability": 0.317 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3803, "tackles": 0.5522, "tackles_won": 0.3534, "clearances": 0.7353, "aerial_won": 0.4487, "total_shots": 0.2252, "rating": 6.6366, "minutes": 13.98, "total_pass": 3.8577, "accurate_pass": 3.3669, "duels_won": 0.8505, "total_long_balls": 0.4885, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2973, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2808, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.2061, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5768, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1607, "crosses_total": 0.1912, "crosses_accurate": 0.0878, "touches": 8.5898, "possession_lost": 1.6362, "dispossessed": 0.369, "duels_lost": 0.9591, "aerial_lost": 0.1494, "total_contest": 0.2309, "won_contest": 0.0878, "ball_recovery": 0.6851, "challenges_lost": 0.0917, "fouls": 0.2319, "fouls_drawn": 0.1215, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0071, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.762, "total_progression": 7.5182, "progressive_carries": 0.2347, "key_pass": 0.0878, "shots_off_target": 0.2251, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.317, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.98 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3803, "tackles": 0.5522, "tackles_won": 0.3534, "clearances": 0.7353, "aerial_won": 0.4487, "total_shots": 0.2252, "rating": 6.6366, "minutes": 13.98, "total_pass": 3.8577, "accurate_pass": 3.3669, "duels_won": 0.8505, "total_long_balls": 0.4885, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2973, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2808, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.2061, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5768, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1607, "crosses_total": 0.1912, "crosses_accurate": 0.0878, "touches": 8.5898, "possession_lost": 1.6362, "dispossessed": 0.369, "duels_lost": 0.9591, "aerial_lost": 0.1494, "total_contest": 0.2309, "won_contest": 0.0878, "ball_recovery": 0.6851, "challenges_lost": 0.0917, "fouls": 0.2319, "fouls_drawn": 0.1215, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0071, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.762, "total_progression": 7.5182, "progressive_carries": 0.2347, "key_pass": 0.0878, "shots_off_target": 0.2251, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.317, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.98, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.483, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.317, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3803, "tackles": 0.5522, "tackles_won": 0.3534, "clearances": 0.7353, "aerial_won": 0.4487, "total_shots": 0.2252, "rating": 6.6366, "minutes": 13.98, "total_pass": 3.8577, "accurate_pass": 3.3669, "duels_won": 0.8505, "total_long_balls": 0.4885, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2973, "total_own_half_passes": 1.2808, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.2061, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5768, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1607, "crosses_total": 0.1912, "crosses_accurate": 0.0878, "touches": 8.5898, "possession_lost": 1.6362, "dispossessed": 0.369, "duels_lost": 0.9591, "aerial_lost": 0.1494, "total_contest": 0.2309, "won_contest": 0.0878, "ball_recovery": 0.6851, "challenges_lost": 0.0917, "fouls": 0.2319, "fouls_drawn": 0.1215, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0071, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.762, "total_progression": 7.5182, "progressive_carries": 0.2347, "key_pass": 0.0878, "shots_off_target": 0.2251, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.317, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.98, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.483, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4463, "fifa_rank": 4266.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } } ] }, "Jon Gorrotxategi": { "player_id": 1216309, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 177, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "assist_rate": 0.0265, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0177, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7403, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 2.5231, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, 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"league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416310, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083624, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 27, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083583, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0502, "expected_assists": 0.0841, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 80, "accurate_pass": 77, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083526, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0377, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083239, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083346, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 40, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1369, "combined_rank_score": 713.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 848.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7403, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Laziz Mirzaev", "ranking": 1364 }, { "player_name": "Shamar Nicholson", "ranking": 1365 }, { "player_name": "Juan Fernando Quintero", "ranking": 1366 }, { "player_name": "Ui-jun Jin", "ranking": 1367 }, { "player_name": "Diego Villares", "ranking": 1368 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Vitão", "ranking": 1370 }, { "player_name": "Jemmes", "ranking": 1371 }, { "player_name": "Samandar Muratbaev", "ranking": 1372 }, { "player_name": "Kyeong-jae Kim", "ranking": 1373 }, { "player_name": "Jung-min Lee", "ranking": 1374 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.753, "history_matches": 35, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", 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"fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Sociedad", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 16.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.02 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (35 historical appearances) to 19.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.71); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 16.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2318, "expected_assists": 0.021, "assists": 0.0272, "assist_rate": 0.0272, "expected_goals": 0.016, "goals": 0.0292, "goal_rate": 0.0292, "shots_on_target": 0.0655, "total_shots": 0.1892, "rating": 6.7403, "minutes": 19.82, "total_pass": 10.1329, "accurate_pass": 8.9989, "duels_won": 0.9989, "total_long_balls": 0.7587, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3182, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5181, 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0.0863 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0966, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0296 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0034 } ], "others": -0.0086, "total": 0.0292, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.337105, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.366203 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.227781 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.163641 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.09573 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.086933 } ], "others_margin": -0.255865 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.06549116224050522, "model_output": 0.0655, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.108 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0886 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1332 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0593 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.028 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0078 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0049 } ], "others": -0.0253, "total": 0.0655, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.126872, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.52925 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.372212 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.239788 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.078627 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.052944 } ], "others_margin": -0.326146 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.18921147286891937, "model_output": 0.1892, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3085 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2437 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0332 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0279 } ], "others": -0.1501, "total": 0.1892, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.3085 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.243691 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.037386 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.03318 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.027872 } ], "others_margin": -0.150141 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.740317344665527, "model_output": 6.7403, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.104 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0175, "total": 6.7403, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.104005 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.029888 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019568 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012451 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.011351 } ], "others_margin": -0.017453 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0071, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2334, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assists": 0.0274, "assist_rate": 0.0274, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "goals": 0.0294, "goal_rate": 0.0294, "shots_on_target": 0.066, "total_shots": 0.1906, "rating": 6.7403, "minutes": 19.82, "total_pass": 10.2048, "accurate_pass": 9.0628, "duels_won": 1.006, "total_long_balls": 0.7641, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3205, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5431, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.393, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6698, "crosses_total": 0.2548, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.4785, "possession_lost": 2.6127, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.7069, "aerial_won": 0.2949, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1587, "tackles_won": 0.1449, "tackles": 0.2115, "clearances": 0.7792, "total_contest": 0.3291, "won_contest": 0.2626, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1749, "fouls_drawn": 0.237, "blocks": 0.1275, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3215, "total_progression": 12.2685, "progressive_carries": 0.0987, "shots_off_target": 0.1246 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0071, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0016)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2334, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assists": 0.0274, "assist_rate": 0.0274, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "goals": 0.0294, "goal_rate": 0.0294, "shots_on_target": 0.0659, "total_shots": 0.1903, "rating": 6.7403, "minutes": 19.82, "total_pass": 10.2048, "accurate_pass": 9.0628, "duels_won": 1.006, "total_long_balls": 0.7641, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3205, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5431, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.393, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6698, "crosses_total": 0.2544, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.4785, "possession_lost": 2.6127, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.7069, "aerial_won": 0.2949, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1584, "tackles_won": 0.1447, "tackles": 0.2115, "clearances": 0.7792, "total_contest": 0.3291, "won_contest": 0.2626, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1746, "fouls_drawn": 0.2366, "blocks": 0.1275, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3215, "total_progression": 12.2685, "progressive_carries": 0.0987, "shots_off_target": 0.1246 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0016, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2202, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled 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"big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1732, "total_progression": 11.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.0953, "shots_off_target": 0.1203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.713, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.14 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.14, "projection_minutes": 19.82, "minutes_scale": 0.9657, "appearance_probability": 0.713 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2254, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "assists": 0.0265, "assist_rate": 0.0265, "expected_goals": 0.0156, "goals": 0.0284, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "shots_on_target": 0.0636, "total_shots": 0.184, "rating": 6.7403, "minutes": 19.14, "total_pass": 9.8547, "accurate_pass": 8.7519, "duels_won": 0.9715, "total_long_balls": 0.7379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4215, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2766, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4332, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 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{ "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0036 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0024 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0016 } ], "others": -0.0087, "total": 0.0316, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.368441, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.517204 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.314739 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.084316 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.055586 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.039881 } ], "others_margin": -0.243751 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.05124451965093613, "model_output": 0.0512, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0966, "items": [ { 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1488 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0047 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0041 } ], "others": -0.0085, "total": 0.1231, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.126872, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.614517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.151888 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.069476 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.033841 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.030945 } ], "others_margin": -0.06748 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4585000276565552, "model_output": 0.4585, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4125 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0315 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0313 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0304 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0245 } ], "others": -0.1133, "total": 0.4585, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.412457 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.031505 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.031348 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.030388 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.024494 } ], "others_margin": -0.113287 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.778817653656006, "model_output": 6.7788, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0925 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0883 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.038 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0311 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0306 } ], "others": -0.0373, "total": 6.7788, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.092488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.088256 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.037983 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031144 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.030574 } ], "others_margin": -0.037216 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0010, quality 0.529)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.507, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "assists": 0.0326, "assist_rate": 0.0326, "expected_goals": 0.0316, "goals": 0.0513, "goal_rate": 0.0513, "shots_on_target": 0.1232, "total_shots": 0.459, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 19.85, "total_pass": 13.3037, "accurate_pass": 11.3352, "duels_won": 1.5833, "total_long_balls": 1.2941, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5979, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4506, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9814, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3538, "crosses_total": 0.2605, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.3064, "possession_lost": 3.3807, "dispossessed": 0.3247, "duels_lost": 1.4808, "aerial_won": 0.2525, "aerial_lost": 0.2135, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4033, "tackles": 0.7107, "clearances": 0.4395, "total_contest": 0.7274, "won_contest": 0.2605, "challenges_lost": 0.0405, "fouls": 0.435, "fouls_drawn": 0.4073, "blocks": 0.1137, "big_chances_created": 0.08, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 6.3511, "total_progression": 29.0374, "progressive_carries": 0.7632, "shots_off_target": 0.3357 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10600000, "quality_factor": 0.5295, "boost_factor": 1.001, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0175)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.507, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "assists": 0.032, "assist_rate": 0.032, "expected_goals": 0.0316, "goals": 0.0504, "goal_rate": 0.0504, "shots_on_target": 0.1251, "total_shots": 0.4564, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 19.85, "total_pass": 13.3037, "accurate_pass": 11.3352, "duels_won": 1.5833, "total_long_balls": 1.2941, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5979, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4506, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9814, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3538, "crosses_total": 0.2586, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.3064, "possession_lost": 3.3807, "dispossessed": 0.3247, "duels_lost": 1.4808, "aerial_won": 0.2525, "aerial_lost": 0.2135, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4016, "tackles": 0.7107, "clearances": 0.4395, "total_contest": 0.7274, "won_contest": 0.2605, "challenges_lost": 0.0405, "fouls": 0.4274, "fouls_drawn": 0.4015, "blocks": 0.1137, "big_chances_created": 0.08, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 6.3511, "total_progression": 29.0374, "progressive_carries": 0.7632, "shots_off_target": 0.3357 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0175, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2206, "prior_reliability": 0.1933, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.435, "after": 0.4274 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.4073, "after": 0.4015 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.9 to 20.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.41)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5236, "expected_assists": 0.034, "assists": 0.033, "assist_rate": 0.033, "expected_goals": 0.0326, "goals": 0.0521, "goal_rate": 0.0521, "shots_on_target": 0.1292, "total_shots": 0.4759, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 20.5, "total_pass": 13.7393, "accurate_pass": 11.7064, "duels_won": 1.6351, "total_long_balls": 1.3365, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6175, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5963, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.1118, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1429, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5946, "crosses_total": 0.2671, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.8731, "possession_lost": 3.4914, "dispossessed": 0.3247, "duels_lost": 1.5293, "aerial_won": 0.2608, "aerial_lost": 0.2135, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4148, "tackles": 0.734, "clearances": 0.4539, 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"bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0042, "total": 6.6695, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065932 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.015371 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.015027 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.012798 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010817 } ], "others_margin": -0.004257 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0066, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1394, "goals": 0.2161, "goal_rate": 0.2161, "shots_on_target": 0.4117, "total_shots": 0.8709, "expected_assists": 0.0136, "key_pass": 0.265, "rating": 6.6695, "minutes": 24.35, "total_pass": 5.2148, "accurate_pass": 3.1671, "duels_won": 0.8873, "total_long_balls": 0.2278, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0624, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4044, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7085, "crosses_total": 0.1216, "crosses_accurate": 0.1016, "touches": 8.793, "possession_lost": 3.6271, "dispossessed": 0.6134, "duels_lost": 2.7005, "aerial_lost": 0.854, "total_contest": 0.3933, "won_contest": 0.0624, "ball_recovery": 0.6193, "challenges_lost": 0.2184, "fouls": 0.7462, "fouls_drawn": 0.0624, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0326, "tackles_won": 0.1008, "tackles": 0.1008, "clearances": 0.1219, "blocks": 0.1195, "big_chances_created": 0.1216, "big_chances_missed": 0.083, "xgot": 0.0829, "offsides": 0.3418, "ball_carries": 1.4285, "total_progression": 9.9424, "progressive_carries": 0.4004, "shots_off_target": 0.4591 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0066, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.4 to 26.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1494, "goals": 0.2316, "goal_rate": 0.2316, "shots_on_target": 0.4412, "total_shots": 0.9334, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "key_pass": 0.284, "rating": 6.6695, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.589, "accurate_pass": 3.3944, "duels_won": 0.951, "total_long_balls": 0.2441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6487, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8311, "crosses_total": 0.1303, "crosses_accurate": 0.1089, "touches": 9.424, "possession_lost": 3.8874, "dispossessed": 0.6134, "duels_lost": 2.8943, "aerial_lost": 0.854, "total_contest": 0.4215, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6637, "challenges_lost": 0.2184, "fouls": 0.7998, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.108, "tackles": 0.108, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.1303, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.0888, "offsides": 0.3418, "ball_carries": 1.531, "total_progression": 10.6559, "progressive_carries": 0.4291, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.1, "projection_minutes": 24.35, "minutes_scale": 1.0718, "appearance_probability": 0.595 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1494, "goals": 0.2316, "goal_rate": 0.2316, "shots_on_target": 0.4412, "total_shots": 0.9334, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "key_pass": 0.284, "rating": 6.6695, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.589, "accurate_pass": 3.3944, "duels_won": 0.951, "total_long_balls": 0.2441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6487, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8311, "crosses_total": 0.1303, "crosses_accurate": 0.1089, "touches": 9.424, "possession_lost": 3.8874, "dispossessed": 0.6134, "duels_lost": 2.8943, "aerial_lost": 0.854, "total_contest": 0.4215, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6637, "challenges_lost": 0.2184, "fouls": 0.7998, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.108, "tackles": 0.108, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.1303, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.0888, "offsides": 0.3418, "ball_carries": 1.531, "total_progression": 10.6559, "progressive_carries": 0.4291, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.3182, xG scale 1.1364, xA scale 1.1588, team xA 0.97 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1698, "goal_rate": 0.2316, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4412, "total_shots": 0.9334, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "key_pass": 0.284, "rating": 6.6695, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.589, "accurate_pass": 3.3944, "duels_won": 0.951, "total_long_balls": 0.2441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6487, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8311, "crosses_total": 0.1303, "crosses_accurate": 0.1089, "touches": 9.424, "possession_lost": 3.8874, "dispossessed": 0.6134, "duels_lost": 2.8943, "aerial_lost": 0.854, "total_contest": 0.4215, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6637, "challenges_lost": 0.2184, "fouls": 0.7998, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.108, "tackles": 0.108, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.1303, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.1009, "offsides": 0.3418, "ball_carries": 1.531, "total_progression": 10.6559, "progressive_carries": 0.4291, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.483, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.498, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3182, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8402, "team_expected_assists": 0.9737, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1364, "xa_scale": 1.1588, "opponent_lambda": 0.805, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.595 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1494, "after": 0.1698 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1698, "goal_rate": 0.2316, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4412, "total_shots": 0.9334, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "key_pass": 0.284, "rating": 6.6695, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.589, "accurate_pass": 3.3944, "duels_won": 0.951, "total_long_balls": 0.2441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6487, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8311, "crosses_total": 0.1303, "crosses_accurate": 0.1089, "touches": 9.424, "possession_lost": 3.8874, "dispossessed": 0.6134, "duels_lost": 2.8943, "aerial_lost": 0.854, "total_contest": 0.4215, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6637, "challenges_lost": 0.2184, "fouls": 0.7998, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.108, "tackles": 0.108, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.1303, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.1009, "offsides": 0.3418, "ball_carries": 1.531, "total_progression": 10.6559, "progressive_carries": 0.4291, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.483, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3712, "fifa_rank": 2909.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1698, "goal_rate": 0.2316, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4412, "total_shots": 0.9334, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "key_pass": 0.284, "rating": 6.6695, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.589, "accurate_pass": 3.3944, "duels_won": 0.951, "total_long_balls": 0.2441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6487, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8311, "crosses_total": 0.1303, "crosses_accurate": 0.1089, "touches": 9.424, "possession_lost": 3.8874, "dispossessed": 0.6134, "duels_lost": 2.8943, "aerial_lost": 0.854, "total_contest": 0.4215, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6637, "challenges_lost": 0.2184, "fouls": 0.7998, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.108, "tackles": 0.108, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.1303, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.1009, "offsides": 0.3418, "ball_carries": 1.531, "total_progression": 10.6559, "progressive_carries": 0.4291, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.483, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0929, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0929, "scorer_weight": 0.1263, "squad_weight_total": 1.6252, "weight_share": 0.0777, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.595, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.301, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.301, "runner_up": "Luka Sučić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2755 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1698, "goal_rate": 0.2316, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4412, "total_shots": 0.9334, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "key_pass": 0.284, "rating": 6.6695, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.589, "accurate_pass": 3.3944, "duels_won": 0.951, "total_long_balls": 0.2441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6487, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8311, "crosses_total": 0.1303, "crosses_accurate": 0.1089, "touches": 9.424, "possession_lost": 3.8874, "dispossessed": 0.6134, "duels_lost": 2.8943, "aerial_lost": 0.854, "total_contest": 0.4215, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6637, "challenges_lost": 0.2184, "fouls": 0.7998, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.108, "tackles": 0.108, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.1303, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.1009, "offsides": 0.3418, "ball_carries": 1.531, "total_progression": 10.6559, "progressive_carries": 0.4291, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, 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"height": 177, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "assist_rate": 0.0265, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0177, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7403, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 2.5231, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, 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-0.027872 } ], "others_margin": -0.150141 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.740317344665527, "model_output": 6.7403, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.104 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0175, "total": 6.7403, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.104005 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.029888 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0071, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2334, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assists": 0.0274, "assist_rate": 0.0274, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "goals": 0.0294, "goal_rate": 0.0294, "shots_on_target": 0.066, "total_shots": 0.1906, "rating": 6.7403, "minutes": 19.82, "total_pass": 10.2048, "accurate_pass": 9.0628, "duels_won": 1.006, "total_long_balls": 0.7641, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3205, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5431, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.393, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6698, "crosses_total": 0.2548, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.4785, "possession_lost": 2.6127, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.7069, "aerial_won": 0.2949, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1587, "tackles_won": 0.1449, "tackles": 0.2115, "clearances": 0.7792, "total_contest": 0.3291, "won_contest": 0.2626, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1749, "fouls_drawn": 0.237, "blocks": 0.1275, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3215, "total_progression": 12.2685, "progressive_carries": 0.0987, "shots_off_target": 0.1246 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0071, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0016)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2334, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assists": 0.0274, "assist_rate": 0.0274, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "goals": 0.0294, "goal_rate": 0.0294, "shots_on_target": 0.0659, "total_shots": 0.1903, "rating": 6.7403, "minutes": 19.82, "total_pass": 10.2048, "accurate_pass": 9.0628, "duels_won": 1.006, "total_long_balls": 0.7641, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3205, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5431, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.393, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6698, "crosses_total": 0.2544, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.4785, "possession_lost": 2.6127, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.7069, "aerial_won": 0.2949, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1584, "tackles_won": 0.1447, "tackles": 0.2115, "clearances": 0.7792, "total_contest": 0.3291, "won_contest": 0.2626, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1746, "fouls_drawn": 0.2366, "blocks": 0.1275, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3215, "total_progression": 12.2685, "progressive_carries": 0.0987, "shots_off_target": 0.1246 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0016, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2202, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.8 to 19.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2254, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "assists": 0.0265, "assist_rate": 0.0265, "expected_goals": 0.0156, "goals": 0.0284, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "shots_on_target": 0.0636, "total_shots": 0.184, "rating": 6.7403, "minutes": 19.14, "total_pass": 9.8547, "accurate_pass": 8.7519, "duels_won": 0.9715, "total_long_balls": 0.7379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4215, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2766, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4332, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4753, "crosses_total": 0.2457, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9818, "possession_lost": 2.5231, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.6826, "aerial_won": 0.2848, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.153, "tackles_won": 0.1397, "tackles": 0.2042, "clearances": 0.7525, "total_contest": 0.3178, "won_contest": 0.2536, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1686, "fouls_drawn": 0.2285, "blocks": 0.1231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1732, "total_progression": 11.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.0953, "shots_off_target": 0.1203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.713, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.14 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.14, "projection_minutes": 19.82, "minutes_scale": 0.9657, "appearance_probability": 0.713 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2254, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "assists": 0.0265, "assist_rate": 0.0265, "expected_goals": 0.0156, "goals": 0.0284, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "shots_on_target": 0.0636, "total_shots": 0.184, "rating": 6.7403, "minutes": 19.14, "total_pass": 9.8547, "accurate_pass": 8.7519, "duels_won": 0.9715, "total_long_balls": 0.7379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4215, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2766, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4332, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4753, "crosses_total": 0.2457, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9818, "possession_lost": 2.5231, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.6826, "aerial_won": 0.2848, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.153, "tackles_won": 0.1397, "tackles": 0.2042, "clearances": 0.7525, "total_contest": 0.3178, "won_contest": 0.2536, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1686, "fouls_drawn": 0.2285, "blocks": 0.1231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1732, "total_progression": 11.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.0953, "shots_off_target": 0.1203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.713, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.14 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.3182, xG scale 1.1364, xA scale 1.1588, team xA 0.97 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2254, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "assist_rate": 0.0265, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0177, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0636, "total_shots": 0.184, "rating": 6.7403, "minutes": 19.14, "total_pass": 9.8547, "accurate_pass": 8.7519, "duels_won": 0.9715, "total_long_balls": 0.7379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4215, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2766, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4332, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4753, "crosses_total": 0.2457, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9818, "possession_lost": 2.5231, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.6826, "aerial_won": 0.2848, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.153, "tackles_won": 0.1397, "tackles": 0.2042, "clearances": 0.7525, "total_contest": 0.3178, "won_contest": 0.2536, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1686, "fouls_drawn": 0.2285, "blocks": 0.1231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1732, "total_progression": 11.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.0953, "shots_off_target": 0.1203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.713, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.14, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.483, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1951, "creation_factor": 1.0866 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.498, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3182, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8402, "team_expected_assists": 0.9737, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1364, "xa_scale": 1.1588, "opponent_lambda": 0.805, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.713 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2254, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "assist_rate": 0.0265, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0177, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0636, "total_shots": 0.184, "rating": 6.7403, "minutes": 19.14, "total_pass": 9.8547, "accurate_pass": 8.7519, "duels_won": 0.9715, "total_long_balls": 0.7379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4215, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2766, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4332, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4753, "crosses_total": 0.2457, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9818, "possession_lost": 2.5231, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.6826, "aerial_won": 0.2848, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.153, "tackles_won": 0.1397, "tackles": 0.2042, "clearances": 0.7525, "total_contest": 0.3178, "won_contest": 0.2536, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1686, "fouls_drawn": 0.2285, "blocks": 0.1231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1732, "total_progression": 11.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.0953, "shots_off_target": 0.1203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.713, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.14, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.483, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1951, "creation_factor": 1.0866, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1369, "fifa_rank": 848.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2254, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "assist_rate": 0.0265, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0177, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0636, "total_shots": 0.184, "rating": 6.7403, "minutes": 19.14, "total_pass": 9.8547, "accurate_pass": 8.7519, "duels_won": 0.9715, "total_long_balls": 0.7379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4215, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2766, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4332, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4753, "crosses_total": 0.2457, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9818, "possession_lost": 2.5231, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.6826, "aerial_won": 0.2848, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.153, "tackles_won": 0.1397, "tackles": 0.2042, "clearances": 0.7525, "total_contest": 0.3178, "won_contest": 0.2536, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1686, "fouls_drawn": 0.2285, "blocks": 0.1231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1732, "total_progression": 11.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.0953, "shots_off_target": 0.1203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.713, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.14, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.483, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0125, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1951, "creation_factor": 1.0866, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0125, "scorer_weight": 0.0151, "squad_weight_total": 1.6252, "weight_share": 0.0093, "finishing_factor": 1.1951, "appearance_weight": 0.713, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.301, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.301, "runner_up": "Luka Sučić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2755 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2254, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "assist_rate": 0.0265, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0177, "goal_rate": 0.0284, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0636, "total_shots": 0.184, "rating": 6.7403, "minutes": 19.14, "total_pass": 9.8547, "accurate_pass": 8.7519, "duels_won": 0.9715, "total_long_balls": 0.7379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4215, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2766, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4332, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4753, "crosses_total": 0.2457, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9818, "possession_lost": 2.5231, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.6826, "aerial_won": 0.2848, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.153, "tackles_won": 0.1397, "tackles": 0.2042, "clearances": 0.7525, "total_contest": 0.3178, "won_contest": 0.2536, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1686, "fouls_drawn": 0.2285, "blocks": 0.1231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1732, "total_progression": 11.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.0953, "shots_off_target": 0.1203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.713, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.14, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.483, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0125, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0166, "finishing_factor": 1.1951, "creation_factor": 1.0866, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0166, "provider_weight": 0.0183, "squad_weight_total": 1.0056, "weight_share": 0.0182, "creation_factor": 1.0866, "appearance_weight": 0.713, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Gómez", "weight": 0.1771, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1771, "runner_up": "Carlos Soler", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1401, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal" ] } ] } } ] }, "Orri Óskarsson": { "player_id": 1026015, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 186, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1698, "goal_rate": 0.2316, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6695, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0066, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1394, "goals": 0.2161, "goal_rate": 0.2161, "shots_on_target": 0.4117, "total_shots": 0.8709, "expected_assists": 0.0136, "key_pass": 0.265, "rating": 6.6695, "minutes": 24.35, "total_pass": 5.2148, "accurate_pass": 3.1671, "duels_won": 0.8873, "total_long_balls": 0.2278, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0624, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4044, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7085, "crosses_total": 0.1216, "crosses_accurate": 0.1016, "touches": 8.793, "possession_lost": 3.6271, "dispossessed": 0.6134, "duels_lost": 2.7005, "aerial_lost": 0.854, "total_contest": 0.3933, "won_contest": 0.0624, "ball_recovery": 0.6193, "challenges_lost": 0.2184, "fouls": 0.7462, "fouls_drawn": 0.0624, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0326, "tackles_won": 0.1008, "tackles": 0.1008, "clearances": 0.1219, "blocks": 0.1195, "big_chances_created": 0.1216, "big_chances_missed": 0.083, "xgot": 0.0829, "offsides": 0.3418, "ball_carries": 1.4285, "total_progression": 9.9424, "progressive_carries": 0.4004, "shots_off_target": 0.4591 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0066, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.4 to 26.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1494, "goals": 0.2316, "goal_rate": 0.2316, "shots_on_target": 0.4412, "total_shots": 0.9334, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "key_pass": 0.284, "rating": 6.6695, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.589, "accurate_pass": 3.3944, "duels_won": 0.951, "total_long_balls": 0.2441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6487, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8311, "crosses_total": 0.1303, "crosses_accurate": 0.1089, "touches": 9.424, "possession_lost": 3.8874, "dispossessed": 0.6134, "duels_lost": 2.8943, "aerial_lost": 0.854, "total_contest": 0.4215, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6637, "challenges_lost": 0.2184, "fouls": 0.7998, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.108, "tackles": 0.108, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.1303, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.0888, "offsides": 0.3418, "ball_carries": 1.531, "total_progression": 10.6559, "progressive_carries": 0.4291, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.1, "projection_minutes": 24.35, "minutes_scale": 1.0718, "appearance_probability": 0.595 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1494, "goals": 0.2316, "goal_rate": 0.2316, "shots_on_target": 0.4412, "total_shots": 0.9334, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "key_pass": 0.284, "rating": 6.6695, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.589, "accurate_pass": 3.3944, "duels_won": 0.951, "total_long_balls": 0.2441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6487, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8311, "crosses_total": 0.1303, "crosses_accurate": 0.1089, "touches": 9.424, "possession_lost": 3.8874, "dispossessed": 0.6134, "duels_lost": 2.8943, "aerial_lost": 0.854, "total_contest": 0.4215, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6637, "challenges_lost": 0.2184, "fouls": 0.7998, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.108, "tackles": 0.108, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.1303, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.0888, "offsides": 0.3418, "ball_carries": 1.531, "total_progression": 10.6559, "progressive_carries": 0.4291, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.3182, xG scale 1.1364, xA scale 1.1588, team xA 0.97 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1698, "goal_rate": 0.2316, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4412, "total_shots": 0.9334, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "key_pass": 0.284, "rating": 6.6695, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.589, "accurate_pass": 3.3944, "duels_won": 0.951, "total_long_balls": 0.2441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6487, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8311, "crosses_total": 0.1303, "crosses_accurate": 0.1089, "touches": 9.424, "possession_lost": 3.8874, "dispossessed": 0.6134, "duels_lost": 2.8943, "aerial_lost": 0.854, "total_contest": 0.4215, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6637, "challenges_lost": 0.2184, "fouls": 0.7998, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.108, "tackles": 0.108, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.1303, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.1009, "offsides": 0.3418, "ball_carries": 1.531, "total_progression": 10.6559, "progressive_carries": 0.4291, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.483, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.498, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3182, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8402, "team_expected_assists": 0.9737, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1364, "xa_scale": 1.1588, "opponent_lambda": 0.805, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.595 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1494, "after": 0.1698 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1698, "goal_rate": 0.2316, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4412, "total_shots": 0.9334, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "key_pass": 0.284, "rating": 6.6695, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.589, "accurate_pass": 3.3944, "duels_won": 0.951, "total_long_balls": 0.2441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6487, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8311, "crosses_total": 0.1303, "crosses_accurate": 0.1089, "touches": 9.424, "possession_lost": 3.8874, "dispossessed": 0.6134, "duels_lost": 2.8943, "aerial_lost": 0.854, "total_contest": 0.4215, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6637, "challenges_lost": 0.2184, "fouls": 0.7998, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.108, "tackles": 0.108, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.1303, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.1009, "offsides": 0.3418, "ball_carries": 1.531, "total_progression": 10.6559, "progressive_carries": 0.4291, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.483, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3712, "fifa_rank": 2909.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1698, "goal_rate": 0.2316, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4412, "total_shots": 0.9334, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "key_pass": 0.284, "rating": 6.6695, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.589, "accurate_pass": 3.3944, "duels_won": 0.951, "total_long_balls": 0.2441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6487, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8311, "crosses_total": 0.1303, "crosses_accurate": 0.1089, "touches": 9.424, "possession_lost": 3.8874, "dispossessed": 0.6134, "duels_lost": 2.8943, "aerial_lost": 0.854, "total_contest": 0.4215, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6637, "challenges_lost": 0.2184, "fouls": 0.7998, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.108, "tackles": 0.108, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.1303, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.1009, "offsides": 0.3418, "ball_carries": 1.531, "total_progression": 10.6559, "progressive_carries": 0.4291, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.483, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0929, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0929, "scorer_weight": 0.1263, "squad_weight_total": 1.6252, "weight_share": 0.0777, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.595, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.301, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.301, "runner_up": "Luka Sučić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2755 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1698, "goal_rate": 0.2316, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4412, "total_shots": 0.9334, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "key_pass": 0.284, "rating": 6.6695, "minutes": 26.1, "total_pass": 5.589, "accurate_pass": 3.3944, "duels_won": 0.951, "total_long_balls": 0.2441, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0669, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6487, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8311, "crosses_total": 0.1303, "crosses_accurate": 0.1089, "touches": 9.424, "possession_lost": 3.8874, "dispossessed": 0.6134, "duels_lost": 2.8943, "aerial_lost": 0.854, "total_contest": 0.4215, "won_contest": 0.0669, "ball_recovery": 0.6637, "challenges_lost": 0.2184, "fouls": 0.7998, "fouls_drawn": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0349, "tackles_won": 0.108, "tackles": 0.108, "clearances": 0.1306, "blocks": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.1303, "big_chances_missed": 0.089, "xgot": 0.1009, "offsides": 0.3418, "ball_carries": 1.531, "total_progression": 10.6559, "progressive_carries": 0.4291, "shots_off_target": 0.492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.483, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0929, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.01, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.01, "provider_weight": 0.008, "squad_weight_total": 1.0056, "weight_share": 0.008, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.595, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Gómez", "weight": 0.1771, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1771, "runner_up": "Carlos Soler", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1401, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.5, "expected_assists": 0.97, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 454, "interceptions": 5, "tackles": 11, "avg_rating": 6.86, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3 } }, "Deportivo": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Bil Nsongo": { "player_id": 2335487, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 32, "height": 182, "market_value": 3200000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1319, "goal_rate": 0.135, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0469, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7345, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 10.9455, "dispossessed": 2.1892, "duels_lost": 9, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0412, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7627, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Martin, Mamadou Sarr", "opponent_faced": "Jon Martin, Mamadou Sarr", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1236, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0458, "finishing_factor": 1.0204, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416313, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2899, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "total_shots": 4, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416343, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0474, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416326, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0754, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 7, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416324, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", 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"margin": 0.052003 } ], "others_margin": -0.266783 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6506093740463257, "model_output": 0.6506, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0328 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.223 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0575 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0493 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0388 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0271 } ], "others": -0.0725, "total": 0.6506, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.286279 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 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{ "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049232 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.022028 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.017903 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.015963 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.013733 } ], "others_margin": -0.044495 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9919, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1721, "goals": 0.1823, "goal_rate": 0.1823, "shots_on_target": 0.5602, "total_shots": 1.6212, "expected_assists": 0.0467, "key_pass": 0.6453, "rating": 6.7345, "minutes": 69.68, "total_pass": 11.6929, "accurate_pass": 8.7827, "duels_won": 5.8708, "total_long_balls": 0.4181, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2934, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6473, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1331, "crosses_total": 0.2307, "crosses_accurate": 0.1247, "touches": 30.5443, "possession_lost": 10.9455, "dispossessed": 2.1892, "duels_lost": 8.8359, "aerial_lost": 2.9683, "total_contest": 3.7392, "won_contest": 1.6776, "ball_recovery": 2.0672, "challenges_lost": 0.5528, "fouls": 1.0641, "fouls_drawn": 0.8193, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.608, "tackles": 1.1045, "clearances": 0.9865, "blocks": 0.1467, "big_chances_created": 0.1247, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0537, "offsides": 0.6507, "ball_carries": 8.9284, "total_progression": 22.6385, "progressive_carries": 1.7649, "shots_off_target": 1.061 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3200000, "quality_factor": 0.4399, "boost_factor": 0.9919, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0289)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1721, "goals": 0.177, "goal_rate": 0.177, "shots_on_target": 0.5577, "total_shots": 1.6155, "expected_assists": 0.0467, "key_pass": 0.6453, "rating": 6.7345, "minutes": 69.68, "total_pass": 11.6929, "accurate_pass": 8.7827, "duels_won": 5.8708, "total_long_balls": 0.4181, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2934, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6473, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1331, "crosses_total": 0.252, "crosses_accurate": 0.1247, "touches": 30.5443, "possession_lost": 10.9455, "dispossessed": 2.1892, "duels_lost": 8.8359, "aerial_lost": 2.9683, "total_contest": 3.7392, "won_contest": 1.6776, "ball_recovery": 2.0672, "challenges_lost": 0.5528, "fouls": 1.0893, "fouls_drawn": 0.8236, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6464, "tackles": 1.1045, "clearances": 0.9865, "blocks": 0.1467, "big_chances_created": 0.1247, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0537, "offsides": 0.6459, "ball_carries": 8.9284, "total_progression": 22.6385, "progressive_carries": 1.7649, "shots_off_target": 1.061 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0289, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7742, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. 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"count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0328 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.207 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.1524 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0625 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0404 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": -0.0363 } ], "others": -0.0969, "total": 0.8769, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.268265 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.159793 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.062418 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.040859 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": -0.036559 } ], 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0211, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0869, "goals": 0.064, "goal_rate": 0.064, "shots_on_target": 0.3112, "total_shots": 1.0648, "expected_assists": 0.0781, "key_pass": 0.8954, "rating": 6.6957, "minutes": 72.33, "total_pass": 16.9889, "accurate_pass": 13.7942, "duels_won": 2.5279, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6885, "crosses_total": 0.4236, "crosses_accurate": 0.1777, "touches": 25.3793, "possession_lost": 6.776, "dispossessed": 0.5327, "duels_lost": 3.4621, "aerial_lost": 0.418, "total_contest": 2.105, "won_contest": 0.418, "ball_recovery": 3.1313, "challenges_lost": 0.4645, "fouls": 0.36, "fouls_drawn": 0.4112, "assists": 0.1777, "assist_rate": 0.1777, "interceptions": 0.3867, "tackles_won": 1.2808, "tackles": 1.6988, "clearances": 0.1284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1777, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.4464, "ball_carries": 8.808, "total_progression": 19.0089, "progressive_carries": 0.6049, "shots_off_target": 0.7536 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0211, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0079)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0869, "goals": 0.0635, "goal_rate": 0.0635, "shots_on_target": 0.3087, "total_shots": 1.0564, "expected_assists": 0.0781, "key_pass": 0.8954, "rating": 6.6957, "minutes": 72.33, "total_pass": 16.9889, "accurate_pass": 13.7942, "duels_won": 2.5279, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8694, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6885, "crosses_total": 0.4203, "crosses_accurate": 0.1777, "touches": 25.3793, "possession_lost": 6.776, "dispossessed": 0.5327, "duels_lost": 3.4621, "aerial_lost": 0.418, "total_contest": 2.105, "won_contest": 0.418, "ball_recovery": 3.1313, "challenges_lost": 0.4645, "fouls": 0.3572, "fouls_drawn": 0.4238, "assists": 0.1763, "assist_rate": 0.1763, "interceptions": 0.3836, "tackles_won": 1.3024, "tackles": 1.6988, "clearances": 0.1284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1777, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.4587, "ball_carries": 8.808, "total_progression": 19.0089, "progressive_carries": 0.6049, "shots_off_target": 0.7536 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0079, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8037, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. 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6.697073459625244, "model_output": 6.6971, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0445 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0218 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0747, "total": 6.6971, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.044519 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.023783 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.021773 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019608 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"interceptionWon", "margin": -0.10281 } ], "others_margin": -0.205252 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4742037355899811, "model_output": 0.4742, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.3022 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1109 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0566 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0501 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0447 } ], "others": -0.1731, "total": 0.4742, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.302205 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.110948 }, { "name": 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.093487 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.03359 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.032272 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.030618 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.028214 } ], "others_margin": -0.028657 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9995, quality 0.501)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5343, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "assists": 0.0468, "assist_rate": 0.0468, "expected_goals": 0.0329, "goals": 0.0424, "goal_rate": 0.0424, "shots_on_target": 0.1282, "total_shots": 0.474, "rating": 6.9727, "minutes": 89.0, "total_pass": 54.3906, "accurate_pass": 49.0258, "duels_won": 6.2245, "total_long_balls": 3.0403, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9208, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1496, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.7804, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.241, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.2454, "crosses_total": 0.4092, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.0106, "possession_lost": 8.604, "dispossessed": 0.7549, "duels_lost": 5.8283, "aerial_won": 1.558, "aerial_lost": 1.3034, "interceptions": 0.943, "tackles_won": 1.2469, "tackles": 3.0037, "clearances": 2.7077, "total_contest": 1.1576, "won_contest": 0.3885, "challenges_lost": 0.8395, "fouls": 2.1613, "fouls_drawn": 1.2743, "blocks": 0.7688, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 23.2479, "total_progression": 98.9291, "progressive_carries": 0.9045, "shots_off_target": 0.3457 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8199999, "quality_factor": 0.5011, "boost_factor": 0.9995, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0591)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5343, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "assists": 0.0635, "assist_rate": 0.0635, "expected_goals": 0.0329, "goals": 0.0399, "goal_rate": 0.0399, "shots_on_target": 0.1206, "total_shots": 0.446, "rating": 6.9727, "minutes": 89.0, "total_pass": 54.3906, "accurate_pass": 49.0258, "duels_won": 6.2245, "total_long_balls": 3.0403, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9208, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1496, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.7804, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.241, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.2454, "crosses_total": 0.4045, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.0106, "possession_lost": 8.604, "dispossessed": 0.7549, "duels_lost": 5.8283, "aerial_won": 1.558, "aerial_lost": 1.3034, "interceptions": 0.9457, "tackles_won": 1.2901, "tackles": 3.0037, "clearances": 2.7077, "total_contest": 1.1576, "won_contest": 0.3885, "challenges_lost": 0.8395, "fouls": 2.131, "fouls_drawn": 1.2185, "blocks": 0.7688, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 23.2479, "total_progression": 98.9291, "progressive_carries": 0.9045, "shots_off_target": 0.3457 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0591, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9889, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. 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"totalShots", "margin": 0.089046 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.07785 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.065254 } ], "others_margin": -0.120431 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0150624513626099, "model_output": 1.0151, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1357 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.051 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0501 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0304 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0298 } ], "others": -0.1109, "total": 1.0151, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.135701 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.050993 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.050084 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.030382 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.029787 } ], "others_margin": -0.110933 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.113653182983398, "model_output": 7.1137, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1069 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0915 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.03 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0194 } ], "others": 0.05, "total": 7.1137, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.106935 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.091459 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.030045 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.025487 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.019366 } ], "others_margin": 0.050095 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9940, quality 0.457)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3956, "expected_assists": 0.1174, "assists": 0.0911, "assist_rate": 0.0911, "expected_goals": 0.0622, "goals": 0.066, "goal_rate": 0.066, "shots_on_target": 0.2531, "total_shots": 1.009, "rating": 7.1137, "minutes": 81.99, "total_pass": 53.1348, "accurate_pass": 48.2681, "duels_won": 2.3985, "total_long_balls": 5.5944, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0737, "total_own_half_passes": 24.3789, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.6158, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7557, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6522, "crosses_total": 1.7461, "crosses_accurate": 0.6463, "touches": 64.0656, "possession_lost": 9.0389, "dispossessed": 1.559, "duels_lost": 2.6403, "aerial_won": 0.173, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3864, "tackles_won": 0.4159, "tackles": 0.8128, "clearances": 0.5771, "total_contest": 0.4069, "won_contest": 0.4069, "challenges_lost": 0.2035, "fouls": 0.8778, "fouls_drawn": 1.0057, "blocks": 0.2394, "big_chances_created": 0.8293, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0498, "ball_carries": 23.2877, "total_progression": 49.6981, "progressive_carries": 0.7713, "shots_off_target": 0.7558 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4600000, "quality_factor": 0.4572, "boost_factor": 0.994, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0451)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3956, "expected_assists": 0.1174, "assists": 0.1034, "assist_rate": 0.1034, "expected_goals": 0.0622, "goals": 0.063, "goal_rate": 0.063, "shots_on_target": 0.2417, "total_shots": 1.0124, "rating": 7.1137, "minutes": 81.99, "total_pass": 53.1348, "accurate_pass": 48.2681, "duels_won": 2.3985, "total_long_balls": 5.5944, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0737, "total_own_half_passes": 24.3789, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.6158, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7557, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6522, "crosses_total": 1.7002, "crosses_accurate": 0.6463, "touches": 64.0656, "possession_lost": 9.0389, "dispossessed": 1.559, "duels_lost": 2.6403, "aerial_won": 0.173, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3854, "tackles_won": 0.43, "tackles": 0.8128, "clearances": 0.5771, "total_contest": 0.4069, "won_contest": 0.4069, "challenges_lost": 0.2035, "fouls": 0.8546, "fouls_drawn": 1.0097, "blocks": 0.2394, "big_chances_created": 0.8293, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0498, "ball_carries": 23.2877, "total_progression": 49.6981, "progressive_carries": 0.7713, "shots_off_target": 0.7558 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0451, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.911, "prior_reliability": 0.1667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. 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"margin": -0.056952 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.040448 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.016572 } ], "others_margin": -0.026086 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.754883766174316, "model_output": 6.7549, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0258 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0102 } ], "others": 0.001, "total": 6.7549, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.02583 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023463 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012803 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011371 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.010174 } ], "others_margin": 0.000898 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9916, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0665, "tackles": 1.5499, "tackles_won": 1.0461, "clearances": 2.3476, "aerial_won": 0.6899, "total_shots": 0.6526, "rating": 6.7549, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 32.0663, "accurate_pass": 23.9711, "duels_won": 3.3296, "total_long_balls": 4.906, "accurate_long_balls": 1.297, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2698, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.7013, "crosses_total": 4.1225, "crosses_accurate": 1.2524, "touches": 56.0744, "possession_lost": 15.0257, "dispossessed": 0.2306, "duels_lost": 3.0408, "aerial_lost": 1.022, "total_contest": 1.0777, "won_contest": 0.6164, "ball_recovery": 4.6401, "challenges_lost": 0.6712, "fouls": 0.6557, "fouls_drawn": 1.6724, "blocks": 0.3448, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0499, "expected_assists": 0.099, "shots_on_target": 0.203, "big_chances_created": 0.2388, "xgot": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 14.0358, "total_progression": 43.8976, "progressive_carries": 0.664, "key_pass": 0.9657, "shots_off_target": 0.4496 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2100000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9916, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.081, "tackles": 1.5499, "tackles_won": 1.0075, "clearances": 2.3476, "aerial_won": 0.6899, "total_shots": 0.6173, "rating": 6.7549, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 32.0663, "accurate_pass": 23.9711, "duels_won": 3.3296, "total_long_balls": 4.906, "accurate_long_balls": 1.297, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2698, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.7013, "crosses_total": 4.0256, "crosses_accurate": 1.2524, "touches": 56.0744, "possession_lost": 15.0257, "dispossessed": 0.2306, "duels_lost": 3.0408, "aerial_lost": 1.022, "total_contest": 1.0777, "won_contest": 0.6164, "ball_recovery": 4.6401, "challenges_lost": 0.6712, "fouls": 0.6924, "fouls_drawn": 1.6721, "blocks": 0.3448, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0499, "expected_assists": 0.099, "shots_on_target": 0.192, "big_chances_created": 0.2388, "xgot": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 14.0358, "total_progression": 43.8976, "progressive_carries": 0.664, "key_pass": 0.9657, "shots_off_target": 0.4496 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0542, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Dep. 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"contribution": 0.1193 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0619 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0299 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0218 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.014 } ], "others": 0.0605, "total": 0.6919, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.119324 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061898 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.029852 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.021779 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.013952 } ], "others_margin": 0.060352 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.871219635009766, "model_output": 6.8712, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], 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"opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 8.0052, "aerialWon": 1.7093, "totalClearance_p90": 8.0052, "totalTackle": 1.8045, "totalPass": 53.8594 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.194039225578308, "model_output": 1.194, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3015 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0387 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0279 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0248 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0238 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.859, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0953 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0737 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0373 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 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"importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1061 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0827 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0643 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0401, "total": 0.5077, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.106066 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.082681 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.064303 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.024751 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.009762 } ], "others_margin": -0.040082 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.809070587158203, "model_output": 6.8091, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0275 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0205 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": 0.0106, "total": 6.8091, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027494 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.020494 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.018066 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.01444 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013009 } ], "others_margin": 0.010604 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"model_output": 0.5167, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0616 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.04 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0335 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0106 } ], "others": -0.0214, "total": 0.5167, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061648 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.040018 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.033509 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.021252 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.010592 } ], 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"margin": 0.01702 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.009556 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.00897 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.00886 } ], "others_margin": -0.002733 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.837313175201416, "model_output": 6.8373, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0117 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0102 } ], "others": 0.0362, "total": 6.8373, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0047, quality 0.605)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2965, "expected_assists": 0.0197, "assists": 0.0292, "assist_rate": 0.0292, "expected_goals": 0.0273, "goals": 0.0417, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "shots_on_target": 0.0719, "total_shots": 0.23, "rating": 6.7386, "minutes": 18.28, "total_pass": 13.3699, "accurate_pass": 12.1358, "duels_won": 1.2868, "total_long_balls": 0.6623, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3894, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5882, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0445, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7816, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0912, "crosses_total": 0.168, "crosses_accurate": 0.0276, "touches": 16.9231, "possession_lost": 1.8919, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.5385, "aerial_won": 0.1285, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1152, "tackles_won": 0.3479, "tackles": 0.3805, "clearances": 0.2889, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.2656, "fouls_drawn": 0.7778, "blocks": 0.2384, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1014, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.844, "total_progression": 4.6736, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1581 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17400000, "quality_factor": 0.6047, "boost_factor": 1.0047, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.3 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3671, "expected_assists": 0.0244, "assists": 0.0362, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "expected_goals": 0.0338, "goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0516, "shots_on_target": 0.089, "total_shots": 0.2848, "rating": 6.7386, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1958, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.63, "projection_minutes": 18.28, "minutes_scale": 1.2382, "appearance_probability": 0.529 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3671, "expected_assists": 0.0244, "assists": 0.0362, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "expected_goals": 0.0338, "goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0516, "shots_on_target": 0.089, "total_shots": 0.2848, "rating": 6.7386, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1958, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.81 (squad xG sum 0.8013, xG scale 1.0047, xA scale 1.0047, team xA 0.63 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3671, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goal_rate": 0.0516, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.089, "total_shots": 0.2848, "rating": 6.7386, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1958, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.463, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2124, "creation_factor": 1.1586 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.805, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8013, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6279, "team_expected_assists": 0.6308, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7836, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0047, "xa_scale": 1.0047, "opponent_lambda": 1.498, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.529 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3671, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goal_rate": 0.0516, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.089, "total_shots": 0.2848, "rating": 6.7386, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1958, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.463, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2124, "creation_factor": 1.1586, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2842, "fifa_rank": 1246.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3671, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goal_rate": 0.0516, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.089, "total_shots": 0.2848, "rating": 6.7386, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 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"projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.463, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0177, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2124, "creation_factor": 1.1586, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0177, "scorer_weight": 0.0218, "squad_weight_total": 0.751, "weight_share": 0.029, "finishing_factor": 1.2124, "appearance_weight": 0.529, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3671, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goal_rate": 0.0516, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.089, "total_shots": 0.2848, "rating": 6.7386, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, 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3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.463, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0177, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0128, "finishing_factor": 1.2124, "creation_factor": 1.1586, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0128, "provider_weight": 0.015, "squad_weight_total": 0.6285, "weight_share": 0.0239, "creation_factor": 1.1586, "appearance_weight": 0.529, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Angeliño": { "player_id": 848355, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 171, "market_value": 4200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0529, "assist_rate": 0.0691, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0212, "goal_rate": 0.0386, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 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"available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416343, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 5.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1704, "combined_rank_score": 690.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 1185.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7132, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Angeliño", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Arthur Theate", "ranking": 1699 }, { "player_name": "Javokhir Kakhramonov", "ranking": 1700 }, { "player_name": "Wilson Odobert", "ranking": 1701 }, { "player_name": "Aitor Paredes", "ranking": 1702 }, { "player_name": "Danny Welbeck", "ranking": 1703 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Park Kyu-Min", "ranking": 1705 }, { "player_name": "Valentín Vidal", "ranking": 1706 }, { "player_name": "Tyler Adams", "ranking": 1707 }, { "player_name": "Ryu Jun-sun", "ranking": 1708 }, { "player_name": "Dan Burn", "ranking": 1709 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.031139321914328, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5014154237233786, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9868, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (1 historical appearances) to 22.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.50)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2882, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "assists": 0.0604, "assist_rate": 0.0604, "expected_goals": 0.0185, "goals": 0.0337, "goal_rate": 0.0337, "shots_on_target": 0.0936, "total_shots": 0.2123, "rating": 6.7132, "minutes": 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68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6326, "fifa_rank": 8353.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0625, "goal_rate": 0.0537, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2583, "total_shots": 0.7679, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "key_pass": 0.3005, "rating": 6.6237, "minutes": 25.42, "total_pass": 6.8032, "accurate_pass": 5.2737, "duels_won": 2.1519, "total_long_balls": 0.3418, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2245, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5713, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.232, "crosses_total": 2.3086, "crosses_accurate": 0.1728, "touches": 16.3647, "possession_lost": 7.1152, "dispossessed": 1.3384, 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"player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-17", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1399, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 5.7279, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 3.0, "accuratePass": 5.6628, "totalShots": 0.7775 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.0722515732049942, "model_output": 0.0723, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.282 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0352 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0258 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2764 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0561 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4615 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1138 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0428 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0419 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0337 } ], "others": -0.1399, "total": 0.5392, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.372807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.461545 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.113784 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.042758 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.041871 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.033653 } ], "others_margin": -0.13998 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.02021697349846363, "model_output": 0.0202, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1017 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0665 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0563 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0639, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0071 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0048 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0022 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0018 } ], "others": -0.0075, "total": 0.0202, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.751197, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.382749 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.17882 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.141344 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.070782 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.062013 } ], "others_margin": -0.314327 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3032163977622986, "model_output": 0.3032, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0328 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2606 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0316 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0255 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": -0.0232, "total": 0.3032, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.489897 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.079889 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.069298 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.05121 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.033296 } ], "others_margin": -0.073342 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6116108894348145, "model_output": 6.6116, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.059 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0384, "total": 6.6116, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.059007 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022586 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011787 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.010666 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.009452 } ], "others_margin": -0.038497 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9908, quality 0.456)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0716, "goals": 0.0668, "goal_rate": 0.0668, "shots_on_target": 0.2658, "total_shots": 0.5343, "expected_assists": 0.02, "key_pass": 0.3004, "rating": 6.6116, "minutes": 21.93, "total_pass": 9.0838, "accurate_pass": 5.6107, "duels_won": 1.3182, "total_long_balls": 1.4828, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0977, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6752, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9724, "crosses_total": 0.933, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7324, "possession_lost": 6.1095, "dispossessed": 0.2783, "duels_lost": 3.9718, "aerial_lost": 0.6057, "total_contest": 0.3851, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.645, "challenges_lost": 2.0394, "fouls": 0.6634, "fouls_drawn": 0.7125, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3274, "tackles_won": 0.2783, 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"goals": 0.0773, "goal_rate": 0.0773, "shots_on_target": 0.3074, "total_shots": 0.618, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "key_pass": 0.3475, "rating": 6.6116, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 10.507, "accurate_pass": 6.4897, "duels_won": 1.5247, "total_long_balls": 1.7151, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2697, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5643, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4381, "crosses_total": 1.0792, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.1972, "possession_lost": 7.0667, "dispossessed": 0.2783, "duels_lost": 4.5941, "aerial_lost": 0.6057, "total_contest": 0.4454, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.0594, "challenges_lost": 2.0394, "fouls": 0.7673, "fouls_drawn": 0.8241, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3787, "tackles_won": 0.3219, "tackles": 0.3219, "clearances": 0.3787, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4454, "xgot": 0.1049, "offsides": 0.3274, "ball_carries": 7.6924, "total_progression": 22.4719, "progressive_carries": 0.8241, "shots_off_target": 0.3106, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.81 (squad xG sum 0.8013, xG scale 1.0047, xA scale 1.0047, team xA 0.63 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0832, "goal_rate": 0.0773, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3074, "total_shots": 0.618, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "key_pass": 0.3475, "rating": 6.6116, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 10.507, "accurate_pass": 6.4897, "duels_won": 1.5247, "total_long_balls": 1.7151, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2697, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5643, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4381, "crosses_total": 1.0792, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.1972, "possession_lost": 7.0667, "dispossessed": 0.2783, "duels_lost": 4.5941, "aerial_lost": 0.6057, "total_contest": 0.4454, "won_contest": 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"predicted": 0.22891779243946075, "model_output": 0.2289, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3098 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2717 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0326 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0244 } ], "others": -0.0935, "total": 0.2289, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.309757 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.271722 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.032622 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0047, quality 0.605)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2965, "expected_assists": 0.0197, "assists": 0.0292, "assist_rate": 0.0292, "expected_goals": 0.0273, "goals": 0.0417, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "shots_on_target": 0.0719, "total_shots": 0.23, "rating": 6.7386, "minutes": 18.28, "total_pass": 13.3699, "accurate_pass": 12.1358, "duels_won": 1.2868, "total_long_balls": 0.6623, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3894, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5882, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0445, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7816, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0912, "crosses_total": 0.168, "crosses_accurate": 0.0276, "touches": 16.9231, "possession_lost": 1.8919, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.5385, "aerial_won": 0.1285, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1152, "tackles_won": 0.3479, "tackles": 0.3805, "clearances": 0.2889, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.2656, "fouls_drawn": 0.7778, "blocks": 0.2384, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1014, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.844, "total_progression": 4.6736, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1581 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17400000, "quality_factor": 0.6047, "boost_factor": 1.0047, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.3 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3671, "expected_assists": 0.0244, "assists": 0.0362, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "expected_goals": 0.0338, "goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0516, "shots_on_target": 0.089, "total_shots": 0.2848, "rating": 6.7386, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1958, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.63, "projection_minutes": 18.28, "minutes_scale": 1.2382, "appearance_probability": 0.529 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3671, "expected_assists": 0.0244, "assists": 0.0362, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "expected_goals": 0.0338, "goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0516, "shots_on_target": 0.089, "total_shots": 0.2848, "rating": 6.7386, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1958, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.81 (squad xG sum 0.8013, xG scale 1.0047, xA scale 1.0047, team xA 0.63 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3671, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goal_rate": 0.0516, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.089, "total_shots": 0.2848, "rating": 6.7386, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1958, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.463, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2124, "creation_factor": 1.1586 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.805, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8013, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6279, "team_expected_assists": 0.6308, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7836, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0047, "xa_scale": 1.0047, "opponent_lambda": 1.498, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.529 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3671, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goal_rate": 0.0516, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.089, "total_shots": 0.2848, "rating": 6.7386, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1958, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.463, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2124, "creation_factor": 1.1586, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2842, "fifa_rank": 1246.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3671, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goal_rate": 0.0516, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.089, "total_shots": 0.2848, "rating": 6.7386, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1958, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.463, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0177, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2124, "creation_factor": 1.1586, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0177, "scorer_weight": 0.0218, "squad_weight_total": 0.751, "weight_share": 0.029, "finishing_factor": 1.2124, "appearance_weight": 0.529, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3671, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goal_rate": 0.0516, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.089, "total_shots": 0.2848, "rating": 6.7386, "minutes": 22.63, "total_pass": 16.555, "accurate_pass": 15.0269, "duels_won": 1.5934, "total_long_balls": 0.8201, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4822, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2462, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7805, "crosses_total": 0.208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0342, "touches": 20.9546, "possession_lost": 2.3426, "dispossessed": 0.0899, "duels_lost": 0.6668, "aerial_won": 0.1591, "aerial_lost": 0.1594, "interceptions": 0.1426, "tackles_won": 0.4308, "tackles": 0.4711, "clearances": 0.3577, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1097, "fouls": 0.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.9631, "blocks": 0.2952, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.998, "total_progression": 5.787, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1958, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.463, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0177, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0128, "finishing_factor": 1.2124, "creation_factor": 1.1586, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0128, "provider_weight": 0.015, "squad_weight_total": 0.6285, "weight_share": 0.0239, "creation_factor": 1.1586, "appearance_weight": 0.529, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.81, "expected_assists": 0.63, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 426, "interceptions": 5, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.84, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "José María Giménez", "Lucas Noubi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.455, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.285, "xg_contribution": 0.244, "xg_multiplier": 1.1254, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "José María Giménez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 5800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.715 }, { "player": "Lucas Noubi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.715 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mikel Oyarzabal (ST) is slightly favored against José María Giménez and Lucas Noubi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €4M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.13 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.244 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ander Barrenetxea", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 17200000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.603, "defenders": [ "José María Giménez", "Lucas Noubi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.455, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.216, "xg_contribution": 0.1584, "xg_multiplier": 1.0237, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "José María Giménez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 5800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.784 }, { "player": "Lucas Noubi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.784 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ander Barrenetxea (ST) is evenly matched against José María Giménez and Lucas Noubi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.158 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Gonçalo Guedes", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5700000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.471, "defenders": [ "José María Giménez", "Lucas Noubi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.455, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1421, "xg_multiplier": 0.9659, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "José María Giménez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 5800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Lucas Noubi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gonçalo Guedes (ST) is evenly matched against José María Giménez and Lucas Noubi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.142 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Carlos Soler", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 6600000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.482, "defenders": [ "Ximo Navarro" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.5, "xg_contribution": 0.1237, "xg_multiplier": 1.0587, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ximo Navarro", "role": "RB", "market_value": 95000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.5 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Soler (LM) is evenly matched against Ximo Navarro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.124 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Luka Sučić", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 16300000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.593, "defenders": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.501, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.544, "xg_contribution": 0.2015, "xg_multiplier": 1.1385, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 8199999, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.456 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luka Sučić (CM) is slightly favored against Lorenzo Amatucci in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.14 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.202 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Yangel Herrera", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 5600000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.47, "defenders": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.501, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "xg_contribution": 0.0504, "xg_multiplier": 1.0433, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 8199999, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.521 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yangel Herrera (CM) is evenly matched against Lorenzo Amatucci in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.050 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Yeremay Hernández", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Jon Martin", "Mamadou Sarr" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0751, "xg_multiplier": 0.8638, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Martin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Mamadou Sarr", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yeremay Hernández (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Jon Martin and Mamadou Sarr in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.86 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.075 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Bil Nsongo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Jon Martin", "Mamadou Sarr" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1313, "xg_multiplier": 0.7627, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Martin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Mamadou Sarr", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bil Nsongo (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jon Martin and Mamadou Sarr in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €24M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.76 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.131 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jonathan Asp Jensen", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3900000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.449, "defenders": [ "Jon Martin", "Mamadou Sarr" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1307, "xg_multiplier": 0.7684, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Martin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Mamadou Sarr", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jonathan Asp Jensen (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jon Martin and Mamadou Sarr in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €24M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.77 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.131 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Luismi Cruz", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 166, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Jon Martin", "Mamadou Sarr" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0832, "xg_multiplier": 0.7169, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Martin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Mamadou Sarr", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luismi Cruz (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jon Martin and Mamadou Sarr in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €24M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.72 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.083 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 8199999, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.501, "defenders": [ "Luka Sučić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.593, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.306, "xg_contribution": 0.0283, "xg_multiplier": 0.8615, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luka Sučić", "role": "CM", "market_value": 16300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.694 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lorenzo Amatucci (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Luka Sučić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.86 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.028 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Mario Soriano", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 4600000, "attacker_height": 163, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.457, "defenders": [ "Luka Sučić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.593, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.275, "xg_contribution": 0.0508, "xg_multiplier": 0.816, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luka Sučić", "role": "CM", "market_value": 16300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.725 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mario Soriano (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Luka Sučić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 27%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.82 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.515, "away_midfield_power": 0.454, "home_creative_power": 0.545, "away_creative_power": 0.389, "home_defensive_power": 0.399, "away_defensive_power": 0.482, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.531, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 2, "home_midfield_players": [ "Luka Sučić", "Carlos Soler", "Yangel Herrera" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci", "Mario Soriano" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "home_throughball_threat": 2.2, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Luka Sučić vs Lorenzo Amatucci", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.011, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.992 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.07, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.498, "away_lambda": 0.805, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Mikel Oyarzabal": { "opponents": [ "José María Giménez", "Lucas Noubi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ander Barrenetxea": { "opponents": [ "José María Giménez", "Lucas Noubi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Gonçalo Guedes": { "opponents": [ "José María Giménez", "Lucas Noubi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Carlos Soler": { "opponents": [ "Ximo Navarro", "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Luka Sučić": { "opponents": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci", "Mario Soriano" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yangel Herrera": { "opponents": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci", "Mario Soriano" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jon Martin": { "opponents": [ "Yeremay Hernández", "Bil Nsongo", "Jonathan Asp Jensen", "Luismi Cruz" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mamadou Sarr": { "opponents": [ "Yeremay Hernández", "Bil Nsongo", "Jonathan Asp Jensen", "Luismi Cruz" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Álex Remiro": { "opponents": [ "Yeremay Hernández", "Jonathan Asp Jensen" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Sergio Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Bil Nsongo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Luken Beitia": { "opponents": [ "Luismi Cruz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "José María Giménez": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal", "Ander Barrenetxea", "Gonçalo Guedes" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lucas Noubi": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal", "Ander Barrenetxea", "Gonçalo Guedes" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ximo Navarro": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Soler" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lorenzo Amatucci": { "opponents": [ "Luka Sučić", "Yangel Herrera", "Carlos Soler" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yeremay Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Jon Martin", "Mamadou Sarr" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bil Nsongo": { "opponents": [ "Jon Martin", "Mamadou Sarr" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jonathan Asp Jensen": { "opponents": [ "Jon Martin", "Mamadou Sarr" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Luismi Cruz": { "opponents": [ "Jon Martin", "Mamadou Sarr" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mario Soriano": { "opponents": [ "Luka Sučić", "Yangel Herrera" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Leo Román": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal", "Ander Barrenetxea" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Giacomo Quagliata": { "opponents": [ "Gonçalo Guedes" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Luka Sučić vs Lorenzo Amatucci will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.92, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9965, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9777, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.107, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0082, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9553, "home_midfield_factor": 1.011, "away_midfield_factor": 0.992, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5661, "away_avg_quality": 0.4729, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0932, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.8334, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.7585, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.4745, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1822, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1002, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0583, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.9201, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0276 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.011, "result": 1.0389 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.96, "result": 0.9973 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.1469 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9448, "result": 1.0836 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9965, "result": 1.0798 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0082, "result": 1.0887 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.107, "result": 1.1957 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.1957, "result": 1.1957, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1822, "factor": 1.1002, "pre": 1.1957, "result": 1.3155 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.3155 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1512, "result": 1.4672 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.4672 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.4672, "result": 1.467, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0214, "pre": 1.467, "result": 1.4984, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.498 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.498 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.498, "result": 1.498, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.498 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.4994, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.7121 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.992, "result": 0.7064 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.07, "result": 0.7558 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7558 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0281, "result": 0.777 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9777, "result": 0.7597 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9553, "result": 0.7258 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0, "result": 0.7258 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.7258, "result": 0.7258, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1822, "factor": 0.9417, "pre": 0.7258, "result": 0.6835 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.6835 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1398, "result": 0.8228 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 0.8228 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.8228, "result": 0.823, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9786, "pre": 0.823, "result": 0.8054, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 0.805 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 0.805 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 0.805, "result": 0.805, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 0.805 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1512, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1398, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.498, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.805, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.4672, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.8228, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.498, "final_away_lambda": 0.805 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 8, "opponent_position": 7, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9448, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 0.867, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.3, "team_ppg": 1.4, "opponent_ppg": 1.4 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 7, "opponent_position": 8, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0281, "attack_index": 0.933, "defense_concede_index": 1.148, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.4, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.72, "team_ppg": 1.4, "opponent_ppg": 1.4 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Real Sociedad vs Deportivo. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-4-2 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.467, Away 0.823). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.498, Away 0.805 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.498, "away_lambda": 0.805, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.467, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.823 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-11T13:30:53Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }