{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Málaga", "away_team": "Espanyol", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261011", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1655, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Espanyol", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2957, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1655 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1334 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1283 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.1046 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1003 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1334, "0-1": 0.1655, "0-2": 0.1046, "0-3": 0.0438, "0-4": 0.0138, "0-5": 0.0035, "0-6": 0.0007, "1-0": 0.1003, "1-1": 0.1283, "1-2": 0.08, "1-3": 0.0335, "1-4": 0.0105, "1-5": 0.0026, "1-6": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.0387, "2-1": 0.0487, "2-2": 0.0306, "2-3": 0.0128, "2-4": 0.004, "2-5": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0099, "3-1": 0.0124, "3-2": 0.0078, "3-3": 0.0033, "3-4": 0.001, "4-0": 0.0019, "4-1": 0.0024, "4-2": 0.0015, "4-3": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2254, "draw": 0.2957, "away_win": 0.4789 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3293, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6707, "btts_yes": 0.3835, "btts_no": 0.6165, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2845, "away_clean_sheet": 0.4653 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.78, "MCR": 6.75, "ATR": 6.66, "GK": 7.19 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.75, "MCR": 6.79, "ATR": 6.83, "GK": 7.1 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Málaga vs Espanyol. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Roberto Fernández", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Jens-Lys Cajuste vs Urko González will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.04, Away: 1.06. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.62, "home_lambda": 0.765, "away_lambda": 1.257, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2254, "draw": 0.2957, "away_win": 0.4789 }, "favorite": "Espanyol", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4789, "fair_spread": -0.492, "fair_total": 2.022, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Málaga", "estimate": 0.765, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Espanyol", "estimate": 1.257, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3293, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3835, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Málaga", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2845, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Espanyol", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4653, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Chupete (Málaga)", "estimate": 0.2016, "probability": 0.1826, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Roberto Fernández (Espanyol)", "estimate": 0.4885, "probability": 0.3865, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Pablo Martínez (Málaga)", "estimate": 0.112, "probability": 0.106, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Omar El Hilali (Espanyol)", "estimate": 0.1796, "probability": 0.1644, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "low", "expected_total_goals": 2.022, "expected_total_shots": 18, "expected_total_passes": 562, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.8, "possession_home_pct": 49.4, "possession_away_pct": 50.6, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Espanyol", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4789, "script": "Espanyol is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.49 goals and fair total 2.02.", "first_half": "Expect low tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 9 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Málaga must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Espanyol lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Espanyol chance creation leans on Roberto Fernández against Adam Aznou, Fernando Calero in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Málaga: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Joaquín Muñoz, Julen Lobete, Eneko Jauregi.", "Espanyol: starters carry the main goal usage through Roberto Fernández; bench watchlist: Marcos Fernández, Kike García.", "Assist usage should flow through Omar El Hilali; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Espanyol tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects low tempo, about 9 total first-half shots, and 1.01 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Málaga is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Espanyol.", "Málaga wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Málaga": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Alfonso Herrero": { "player_id": 96371, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 180, "market_value": 420000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0012, "rating": 7.1894, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 17, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 49, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 10.509, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2567, "shots_faced": 11.9, "expected_saves": 2.91, "high_pressure_saves": 1.01, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández, Tyrhys Dolan", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416303.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 0.2423 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338.0, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 23, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.3488 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 45, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.3644 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416320.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 34, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.9391 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.7359 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416307.0, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.1734 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421055.0, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 32, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.6449 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3276, "combined_rank_score": 1220.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 44.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.8, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 2397.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1894, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alfonso Herrero", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Federico Viñas", "ranking": 3271 }, { "player_name": "Marco Reus", "ranking": 3272 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Bueno", "ranking": 3273 }, { "player_name": "Hany Mukhtar", "ranking": 3274 }, { "player_name": "Aleksey Miranchuk", "ranking": 3275 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Tim Iroegbunam", "ranking": 3277 }, { "player_name": "Jaminton Campaz", "ranking": 3278 }, { "player_name": "Miguel Merentiel", "ranking": 3279 }, { "player_name": "Pep Biel", "ranking": 3280 }, { "player_name": "Beñat Prados", "ranking": 3281 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.688, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.688, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 7 historical appearances across 3 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0013, "rating": 7.1894, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 17, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 50, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 10.71, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 4, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:01:45.250339+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 135, "rows": 3738 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 7.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "save_contribution": 4.2777, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.4064, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.4304, "possessionLostCtrl": 11.1887, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.4304, "accurateLongBalls": 6.6694 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.075252056121826, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0523 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0514 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0445 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9861, "items": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.0574 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0389 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.037 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0276 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0263 } ], "others": -0.024, "total": 3.0753, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.093963, "item_margins": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.019027 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.012698 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.012077 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.009026 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.008522 } ], "others_margin": -0.007772 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.001262725330889225, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0515 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0478 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0455, "items": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.0658 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0481 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0388 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.025 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0216 } ], "others": 0.0713, "total": 0.0013, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.045465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.065798 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.048097 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.038843 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.025049 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.021561 } ], "others_margin": 0.071357 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.189387321472168, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.075 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0478 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0409 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0878, "items": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.097 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0574 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0443 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0292 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0243 } ], "others": 0.0226, "total": 7.1894, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.087778, "item_margins": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.097033 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.057361 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.044306 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.029171 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.024255 } ], "others_margin": 0.022549 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0012, "rating": 7.1894, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 17, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 49, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 10.509, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 420000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3, 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"margin": -0.056249 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.032463 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.027731 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.024498 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011902 } ], "others_margin": -0.058168 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0256, "assist_rate": 0.0494, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0881, "goal_rate": 0.0631, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6977, "minutes": 43, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 24, 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"accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 24, "possession_lost": 5.7373, "dispossessed": 1.4967, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 16.7, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -2.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.012, "history_matches": 4, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0241 }, { "stat": 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0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 100.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 16.7, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0256, "assist_rate": 0.0488, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0967, "goal_rate": 0.0683, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6977, "minutes": 43, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, 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attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Juan Cruz", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "duel_win_rate": 0.486, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0971, "skill_edge": 0.042, "height_edge": 0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.5308, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "xg_override": 0.0967 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6025, "after": 0.661 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4169, "after": 0.4574 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1856, "after": 0.2036 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0881, "after": 0.0967 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0623, "after": 0.0683 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.26 (squad xG sum 1.2212, xG scale 1.0293, xA scale 1.0933, team xA 0.82 = 0.65 x lambda)", 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4340, "fifa_rank": 4267.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.028, "assist_rate": 0.0488, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0995, "goal_rate": 0.0683, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6977, "minutes": 43, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 24, "possession_lost": 5.7373, "dispossessed": 1.4967, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 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"totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.476, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0436 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.026 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0125 } ], "others": 0.0308, "total": 0.4431, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.476045, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.043585 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.025963 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.022849 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.016174 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.01255 } ], "others_margin": 0.030755 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.832639217376709, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0466 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"name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1105 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0444 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0409 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6782, "items": [ { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.1846 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0378 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0185 } ], "others": -0.0533, "total": 0.4309, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.388283, "item_margins": [ { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.317642 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.079681 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.059944 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.037989 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.037417 } ], "others_margin": -0.116852 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.768398761749268, "scale": 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"ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0197, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0495, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.112, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9574, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3587, "fifa_rank": 2395.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0654, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0197, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0495, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.112, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0354, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9574, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0354, "scorer_weight": 0.0292, "squad_weight_total": 1.2812, "weight_share": 0.0228, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.5901, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5901, "runner_up": "Tyrhys Dolan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1452 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0654, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0197, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0495, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.112, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0354, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0137, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9574, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0137, "provider_weight": 0.0133, "squad_weight_total": 0.7671, "weight_share": 0.0174, "creation_factor": 0.9574, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Omar El Hilali", "weight": 0.1795, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1795, "runner_up": "Javi Puado", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1362, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.26, "expected_assists": 0.82, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 273, "interceptions": 4, "tackles": 6, "avg_rating": 6.81, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Izan Merino", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Pol Lozano" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.472, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.431, "xg_contribution": 0.1001, "xg_multiplier": 1.016, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pol Lozano", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 5800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.569 } ], "duel_analysis": "Izan Merino (LWB) is evenly matched against Pol Lozano in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.100 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 6600000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.482, "defenders": [ "Javi Puado" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.487, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.485, "xg_contribution": 0.1134, "xg_multiplier": 1.0516, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Javi Puado", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 7000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.515 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jens-Lys Cajuste (CM) is evenly matched against Javi Puado in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.113 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Martínez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Javi Puado" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.487, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.44, "xg_contribution": 0.1014, "xg_multiplier": 0.9848, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Javi Puado", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 7000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.56 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Martínez (CM) is evenly matched against Javi Puado in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.101 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Juan Cruz", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Moscardo" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.493, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.354, "xg_contribution": 0.1042, "xg_multiplier": 0.9029, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Moscardo", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 7500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.646 } ], "duel_analysis": "Juan Cruz (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Gabriel Moscardo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.104 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Chupete", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Omar El Hilali", "Quilindschy Hartman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.587, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3513, "xg_multiplier": 0.9393, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Omar El Hilali", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Quilindschy Hartman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chupete (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Omar El Hilali and Quilindschy Hartman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.351 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Adrián Niño", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Omar El Hilali", "Quilindschy Hartman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.587, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2698, "xg_multiplier": 0.8836, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Omar El Hilali", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Quilindschy Hartman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Adrián Niño (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Omar El Hilali and Quilindschy Hartman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.88 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.270 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Gabriel Moscardo", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 7500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.493, "defenders": [ "Juan Cruz" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.486, "xg_contribution": 0.0967, "xg_multiplier": 1.0971, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Juan Cruz", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.514 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gabriel Moscardo (LWB) is slightly favored against Juan Cruz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.10 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.097 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Urko González", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 11600000, "attacker_height": 189, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.541, "defenders": [ "David Larrubia" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.466, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.545, "xg_contribution": 0.112, "xg_multiplier": 1.1401, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "David Larrubia", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.455 } ], "duel_analysis": "Urko González (CM) is slightly favored against David Larrubia in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 55%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.14 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.112 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Tyrhys Dolan", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 10800000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.532, "defenders": [ "David Larrubia" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.466, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.473, "xg_contribution": 0.1439, "xg_multiplier": 1.0334, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "David Larrubia", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.527 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tyrhys Dolan (CM) is evenly matched against David Larrubia in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.144 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Pol Lozano", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 5800000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.472, "defenders": [ "Izan Merino" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.409, "xg_contribution": 0.1017, "xg_multiplier": 0.984, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Izan Merino", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.591 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pol Lozano (RWB) is evenly matched against Izan Merino in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.102 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Roberto Fernández", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10300000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.526, "defenders": [ "Adam Aznou", "Fernando Calero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.457, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.247, "xg_contribution": 0.4746, "xg_multiplier": 1.0696, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adam Aznou", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.753 }, { "player": "Fernando Calero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.753 } ], "duel_analysis": "Roberto Fernández (ST) is slightly favored against Adam Aznou and Fernando Calero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.475 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Bryan Zaragoza", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7500000, "attacker_height": 165, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.493, "defenders": [ "Adam Aznou", "Fernando Calero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.457, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1357, "xg_multiplier": 0.927, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adam Aznou", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Fernando Calero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bryan Zaragoza (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Adam Aznou and Fernando Calero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.136 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.502, "away_midfield_power": 0.555, "home_creative_power": 0.381, "away_creative_power": 0.458, "home_defensive_power": 0.412, "away_defensive_power": 0.433, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.475, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "David Larrubia", "Pablo Martínez", "Izan Merino", "Juan Cruz" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Urko González", "Tyrhys Dolan", "Gabriel Moscardo", "Javi Puado", "Pol Lozano" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.2, "home_throughball_threat": 1.7, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Jens-Lys Cajuste vs Urko González", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.99, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.009 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.765, "away_lambda": 1.257, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Izan Merino": { "opponents": [ "Pol Lozano", "Gabriel Moscardo" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jens-Lys Cajuste": { "opponents": [ "Javi Puado", "Urko González" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Javi Puado", "Tyrhys Dolan" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Juan Cruz": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Moscardo", "Pol Lozano" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Chupete": { "opponents": [ "Omar El Hilali", "Quilindschy Hartman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Adrián Niño": { "opponents": [ "Omar El Hilali", "Quilindschy Hartman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "David Larrubia": { "opponents": [ "Urko González", "Tyrhys Dolan", "Javi Puado" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Adam Aznou": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández", "Bryan Zaragoza" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Fernando Calero": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández", "Bryan Zaragoza" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alfonso Herrero": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández", "Bryan Zaragoza" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jose Salinas": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Pol Lozano": { "opponents": [ "Izan Merino", "Juan Cruz" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Javi Puado": { "opponents": [ "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "Pablo Martínez", "David Larrubia" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gabriel Moscardo": { "opponents": [ "Juan Cruz", "Izan Merino" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Omar El Hilali": { "opponents": [ "Chupete", "Adrián Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Quilindschy Hartman": { "opponents": [ "Chupete", "Adrián Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Urko González": { "opponents": [ "David Larrubia", "Jens-Lys Cajuste" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tyrhys Dolan": { "opponents": [ "David Larrubia", "Pablo Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Roberto Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Adam Aznou", "Fernando Calero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bryan Zaragoza": { "opponents": [ "Adam Aznou", "Fernando Calero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Marko Dmitrović": { "opponents": [ "Chupete", "Adrián Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Vanja Drkušić": { "opponents": [ "Chupete" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Jens-Lys Cajuste vs Urko González will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.04, Away: 1.06. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.021, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.042, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9839, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0068, "home_midfield_factor": 0.99, "away_midfield_factor": 1.009, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4581, "away_avg_quality": 0.5185, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0604, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.7389, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.5701, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.5372, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1398, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0769, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0447, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0838, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1025, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Málaga CF", "away_squad": "Espanyol", "home_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.412, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.407, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.765, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.257, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.7655, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.2567, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 0.765, "final_away_lambda": 1.257 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 20, "opponent_position": 15, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.6338, "attack_index": 0.347, "defense_concede_index": 0.866, "form_multiplier": 0.969, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 0.43, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 15, "opponent_position": 20, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0828, "attack_index": 0.866, "defense_concede_index": 1.386, "form_multiplier": 1.031, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.25, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.0, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.43 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Málaga vs Espanyol. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-5-2 vs 3-5-2 (duel lambdas: Home 0.765, Away 1.257). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 0.765, Away 1.257 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 9, "home_fbref_players": 0, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 10, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Málaga CF", "away_squad": "Espanyol", "home_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.412, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.407, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 0.765, "away_lambda": 1.257, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.765, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.257 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-30T01:04:40Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }