{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Hull", "away_team": "Everton", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261011", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "5-4-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1112, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Everton", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2427, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1112 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1154 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.097 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0949 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0671 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0671, "0-1": 0.1112, "0-2": 0.0949, "0-3": 0.0535, "0-4": 0.0227, "0-5": 0.0077, "0-6": 0.0022, "0-7": 0.0005, "1-0": 0.0668, "1-1": 0.1154, "1-2": 0.097, "1-3": 0.0547, "1-4": 0.0232, "1-5": 0.0078, "1-6": 0.0022, "1-7": 0.0005, "2-0": 0.0346, "2-1": 0.0585, "2-2": 0.0496, "2-3": 0.028, "2-4": 0.0118, "2-5": 0.004, "2-6": 0.0011, "3-0": 0.0118, "3-1": 0.0199, "3-2": 0.0169, "3-3": 0.0095, "3-4": 0.004, "3-5": 0.0014, "4-0": 0.003, "4-1": 0.0051, "4-2": 0.0043, "4-3": 0.0024, "4-4": 0.001, "5-0": 0.0006, "5-1": 0.001, "5-2": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2273, "draw": 0.2427, "away_win": 0.5301 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.51, "under_2_5_goals": 0.49, "btts_yes": 0.5232, "btts_no": 0.4768, "home_clean_sheet": 0.184, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3599 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.71, "MCR": 6.79, "ATR": 6.86, "GK": 7.01 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.82, "MCR": 7.01, "ATR": 6.76, "GK": 7.07 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Hull vs Everton. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Thierno Barry", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 5-4-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Regan Slater vs James Garner). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.66, Away: 0.94. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.72, "home_lambda": 1.022, "away_lambda": 1.693, "h2h": { "available": false, "meetings": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_wins": 0, "draws": 0, "home_multiplier": 1.0, "away_multiplier": 1.0 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1154, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2273, "draw": 0.2427, "away_win": 0.5301 }, "favorite": "Everton", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5301, "fair_spread": -0.671, "fair_total": 2.715, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Hull", "estimate": 1.022, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Everton", "estimate": 1.693, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.51, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5232, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Hull", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.184, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Everton", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3599, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Oli McBurnie (Hull)", "estimate": 0.2343, "probability": 0.2089, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Thierno Barry (Everton)", "estimate": 0.5664, "probability": 0.4324, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Mohamed Belloumi (Hull)", "estimate": 0.1247, "probability": 0.1172, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (Everton)", "estimate": 0.2417, "probability": 0.2147, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.715, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 687, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.5, "possession_home_pct": 46.4, "possession_away_pct": 53.6, "notes": "Everton projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Everton", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5301, "script": "Everton is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.67 goals and fair total 2.71.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Hull must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Everton lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Everton chance creation leans on Thierno Barry against Semi Ajayi, Nobel Mendy in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Everton projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Hull: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Christos Mouzakitis, Robinio Vaz, Joe Gelhardt.", "Everton: starters carry the main goal usage through Thierno Barry; bench watchlist: Hayden Hackney, Beto.", "Assist usage should flow through Jack Grealish; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Everton tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.36 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Hull is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Everton.", "Hull wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Hull": { "formation": "5-4-1", "players": { "Oli McBurnie": { "player_id": 367228, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 188, "market_value": 5400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2343, "goal_rate": 0.2241, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0472, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8854, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 8, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 34, "possession_lost": 11.9295, "dispossessed": 0.6018, "duels_lost": 9, "aerial_lost": 6, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.2279, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1077, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7864, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jarrad Branthwaite, Vitaliy Mykolenko", "opponent_faced": "Jarrad Branthwaite, Vitaliy Mykolenko", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2089, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0461, "finishing_factor": 0.9931, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363868, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Hull City", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3644, "expected_assists": 0.02, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363641, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Hull City", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3297, "expected_assists": 0.0443, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363262, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Hull City", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3823, "expected_assists": 0.0505, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 9, "duels_won": 13 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363250, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Hull City", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363634, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Hull City", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1558, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3569, "combined_rank_score": 1531.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 873.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.55, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 2189.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8854, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Oli McBurnie", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Koni De Winter", "ranking": 3564 }, { "player_name": "Luis Henrique", "ranking": 3565 }, { "player_name": "Lorenzo Lucca", "ranking": 3566 }, { "player_name": "Neil El Aynaoui", "ranking": 3567 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Castro", "ranking": 3568 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Philip Zinckernagel", "ranking": 3570 }, { "player_name": "Cristian Roldan", "ranking": 3571 }, { "player_name": "Joaquín Pereyra", "ranking": 3572 }, { "player_name": "Moise Bombito", "ranking": 3573 }, { "player_name": "Germán Berterame", "ranking": 3574 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.562, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.562, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9943, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 5 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2891, "goals": 0.2866, "goal_rate": 0.2866, "shots_on_target": 0.7117, "total_shots": 1.9629, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "key_pass": 0.7383, "rating": 6.8854, "minutes": 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1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.2702, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 13.41, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 7.3468, "accuratePass": 11.0649, "totalShots": 2.1737 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.289054274559021, "model_output": 0.2891, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0504 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0331 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0327 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": 0.0202, "total": 0.2891, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.225725 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.124534 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.123133 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.037844 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.03582 } ], "others_margin": 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"others_margin": 0.035456 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07175888866186142, "model_output": 0.0718, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0069 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0044 } ], "others": -0.0066, "total": 0.0718, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.149485 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.138146 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.089533 }, { "name": 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0.125941 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.061958 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.048537 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.042562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.040441 } ], "others_margin": 0.013213 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0589679479599, "model_output": 1.059, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1518 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0452 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0402 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0133 } ], "others": -0.0246, "total": 1.059, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.151759 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.045187 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.040217 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.013393 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.013319 } ], "others_margin": -0.024565 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.839498996734619, "model_output": 6.8395, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0303 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0078 } ], "others": -0.0127, "total": 6.8395, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030321 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.022971 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.016421 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012636 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.007814 } ], "others_margin": -0.012692 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9938, quality 0.463)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0599, "expected_assists": 0.0936, "assists": 0.095, "assist_rate": 0.095, "expected_goals": 0.0861, "goals": 0.0713, "goal_rate": 0.0713, "shots_on_target": 0.3306, "total_shots": 1.0524, "rating": 6.8395, "minutes": 86.55, "total_pass": 26.5053, "accurate_pass": 21.3721, "duels_won": 4.2317, "total_long_balls": 2.2765, "accurate_long_balls": 1.028, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4746, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5646, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0308, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8074, "crosses_total": 1.1225, "crosses_accurate": 0.5075, "touches": 37.5169, "possession_lost": 8.1103, "dispossessed": 0.5724, "duels_lost": 2.1409, "aerial_won": 1.2412, "aerial_lost": 0.3044, "interceptions": 0.883, "tackles_won": 0.9877, "tackles": 1.675, "clearances": 0.9783, "total_contest": 0.6894, "won_contest": 0.6894, "challenges_lost": 0.6262, "fouls": 0.6379, "fouls_drawn": 0.6262, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3676, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0151, "ball_carries": 9.4048, "total_progression": 23.3192, "progressive_carries": 0.3335, "shots_off_target": 0.7218 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5100000, "quality_factor": 0.4634, "boost_factor": 0.9938, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0433)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0599, "expected_assists": 0.0936, "assists": 0.1117, "assist_rate": 0.1117, "expected_goals": 0.0861, "goals": 0.0682, "goal_rate": 0.0682, "shots_on_target": 0.3163, "total_shots": 1.0068, "rating": 6.8395, "minutes": 86.55, "total_pass": 26.5053, "accurate_pass": 21.3721, "duels_won": 4.2317, "total_long_balls": 2.2765, "accurate_long_balls": 1.028, 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}, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0512 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0444 } ], "others": 0.0296, "total": 0.6431, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.325983 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119221 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.07459 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.051187 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.044379 } ], "others_margin": 0.029559 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.74672794342041, "model_output": 6.7467, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9873, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5545, "expected_assists": 0.0424, "assists": 0.0479, "assist_rate": 0.0479, "expected_goals": 0.0462, "goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0527, "shots_on_target": 0.1861, "total_shots": 0.6349, "rating": 6.7467, "minutes": 73.74, "total_pass": 16.7418, "accurate_pass": 13.0633, "duels_won": 3.9645, "total_long_balls": 2.3584, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4776, "total_own_half_passes": 7.7986, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5426, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9433, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5206, "crosses_total": 0.3838, "crosses_accurate": 0.3838, "touches": 25.5364, "possession_lost": 4.9432, "dispossessed": 0.2773, "duels_lost": 3.7276, "aerial_won": 1.1581, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.5994, "tackles": 2.5292, "clearances": 1.8595, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125364 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.100605 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.091805 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.086741 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.034604 } ], "others_margin": -0.108938 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.9076322317123413, "model_output": 0.9076, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2612 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0907 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0738 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", 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"contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0213 } ], "others": -0.0009, "total": 0.4524, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.093446 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049554 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.024191 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.02308 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.021256 } ], "others_margin": -0.00083 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.660065650939941, "model_output": 6.6601, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0439 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0042, quality 0.533)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8534, "tackles": 1.4271, "tackles_won": 0.8373, "clearances": 2.5745, "aerial_won": 0.9114, "total_shots": 0.4543, "rating": 6.6601, "minutes": 89.5, "total_pass": 19.4561, "accurate_pass": 15.1589, "duels_won": 2.5506, "total_long_balls": 2.6258, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7372, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2997, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0015, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1574, "crosses_total": 9.2, "crosses_accurate": 2.4182, "touches": 43.0292, "possession_lost": 14.9323, "dispossessed": 0.2302, "duels_lost": 1.7216, "aerial_lost": 0.3076, "total_contest": 0.9328, "won_contest": 0.3912, "ball_recovery": 2.7866, "challenges_lost": 0.3715, "fouls": 0.2707, "fouls_drawn": 0.2302, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, 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"minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1289, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1095, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0931, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0791, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-14", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0673, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0572, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0486, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-26", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0413, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 5.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 6.3579, "aerialWon": 1.3961, "totalClearance_p90": 8.0465, "totalTackle": 1.6059, "totalPass": 29.4254 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9904292821884155, "model_output": 0.9904, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0273 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0132 } ], "others": 0.0012, "total": 0.9904, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.113352 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.034024 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.027134 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.018139 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.013263 } ], "others_margin": 0.001275 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.4666173458099365, "model_output": 1.4666, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1718 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0588 }, { "name": 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.109 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0448 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0444 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0279 } ], "others": -0.0578, "total": 0.8422, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12006 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.04763 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.047155 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.037118 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.030541 } ], "others_margin": -0.066299 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 5.896814346313477, "model_output": 5.8968, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.7711 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5844 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.3919 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.3715 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1874 } ], "others": 0.1391, "total": 5.8968, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.201641 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129624 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.078376 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.069019 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.033088 } ], "others_margin": 0.023881 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.8211227655410767, "model_output": 1.8211, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1801 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.186 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1798 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1128 } ], "others": -0.0899, "total": 1.8211, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122476 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.112486 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.097881 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.069672 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.060869 } ], "others_margin": -0.04814 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5409703850746155, "model_output": 0.541, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0659 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.034 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0276 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0179 } ], "others": -0.0603, "total": 0.541, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.065927 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.034048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.027619 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.020618 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01789 } ], "others_margin": -0.060483 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.816425800323486, "model_output": 6.8164, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": 0.0003, "total": 6.8164, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.019005 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.016681 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.014144 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.009683 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.009121 } ], "others_margin": 0.000266 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 26, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9995, quality 0.495)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9899, "tackles": 1.4659, "tackles_won": 0.8417, "clearances": 5.8939, "aerial_won": 1.8202, "total_shots": 0.5407, "rating": 6.8164, "minutes": 72.44, "total_pass": 31.4547, "accurate_pass": 26.2352, "duels_won": 3.4177, "total_long_balls": 5.3628, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1241, "total_own_half_passes": 22.1335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6989, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3211, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5362, "crosses_total": 0.1718, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.9196, "possession_lost": 6.028, "dispossessed": 0.1719, "duels_lost": 2.6093, "aerial_lost": 1.0712, "total_contest": 0.0231, "won_contest": 0.02, "ball_recovery": 2.2424, "challenges_lost": 0.3891, "fouls": 1.094, "fouls_drawn": 0.4552, "blocks": 1.1683, "goals": 0.138, "goal_rate": 0.138, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0446, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "shots_on_target": 0.357, "big_chances_created": 0.0518, "xgot": 0.0827, "ball_carries": 10.5253, "total_progression": 31.4644, "progressive_carries": 0.4059, "key_pass": 0.0715, "shots_off_target": 0.1837 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7700000, "quality_factor": 0.4951, "boost_factor": 0.9995, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0085)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9814, "tackles": 1.4659, "tackles_won": 0.8398, "clearances": 5.8939, "aerial_won": 1.8202, "total_shots": 0.5463, "rating": 6.8164, "minutes": 72.44, "total_pass": 31.4547, "accurate_pass": 26.2352, "duels_won": 3.4177, "total_long_balls": 5.3628, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1241, "total_own_half_passes": 22.1335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6989, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3211, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5362, "crosses_total": 0.1703, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.9196, "possession_lost": 6.028, "dispossessed": 0.1719, "duels_lost": 2.6093, "aerial_lost": 1.0712, "total_contest": 0.0231, "won_contest": 0.02, "ball_recovery": 2.2424, "challenges_lost": 0.3891, "fouls": 1.0899, "fouls_drawn": 0.4513, "blocks": 1.1683, "goals": 0.1421, "goal_rate": 0.1421, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0446, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "shots_on_target": 0.3642, "big_chances_created": 0.0518, "xgot": 0.0827, "ball_carries": 10.5253, "total_progression": 31.4644, "progressive_carries": 0.4059, "key_pass": 0.0715, "shots_off_target": 0.1837 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0085, "history_matches": 28, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8049, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Hull City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.9899, "after": 0.9814 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.357, "after": 0.3642 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5407, "after": 0.5463 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9814, "tackles": 1.4659, "tackles_won": 0.8398, "clearances": 5.8939, "aerial_won": 1.8202, "total_shots": 0.5479, "rating": 6.8164, "minutes": 72.44, "total_pass": 31.4547, "accurate_pass": 26.2352, "duels_won": 3.4177, "total_long_balls": 5.3628, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1241, "total_own_half_passes": 22.1335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6989, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3211, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5362, "crosses_total": 0.1703, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.9196, "possession_lost": 6.028, "dispossessed": 0.1719, "duels_lost": 2.6093, "aerial_lost": 1.0712, "total_contest": 0.0231, "won_contest": 0.02, "ball_recovery": 2.2424, "challenges_lost": 0.3891, "fouls": 1.0899, "fouls_drawn": 0.4513, "blocks": 1.1683, "goals": 0.1421, "goal_rate": 0.1421, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0446, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "shots_on_target": 0.3642, "big_chances_created": 0.0518, "xgot": 0.0827, "ball_carries": 10.5253, "total_progression": 31.4644, "progressive_carries": 0.4059, "key_pass": 0.0715, "shots_off_target": 0.1837 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9814, "tackles": 1.4659, "tackles_won": 0.8398, "clearances": 5.8939, "aerial_won": 1.8202, "total_shots": 0.5479, "rating": 6.8164, "minutes": 72.44, "total_pass": 31.4547, "accurate_pass": 26.2352, "duels_won": 3.4177, "total_long_balls": 5.3628, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1241, "total_own_half_passes": 22.1335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6989, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3211, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5362, "crosses_total": 0.1703, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.9196, "possession_lost": 6.028, "dispossessed": 0.1719, "duels_lost": 2.6093, "aerial_lost": 1.0712, "total_contest": 0.0231, "won_contest": 0.02, "ball_recovery": 2.2424, "challenges_lost": 0.3891, "fouls": 1.0899, "fouls_drawn": 0.4513, "blocks": 1.1683, "goals": 0.1421, "goal_rate": 0.1421, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0446, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "shots_on_target": 0.3642, "big_chances_created": 0.0518, "xgot": 0.0827, "ball_carries": 10.5253, "total_progression": 31.4644, "progressive_carries": 0.4059, "key_pass": 0.0715, "shots_off_target": 0.1837, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.67, "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs 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"contribution": 0.0565 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.046 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0352, "total": 0.5008, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056501 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.045985 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.018324 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.011104 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.008176 } ], "others_margin": -0.03517 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.729610919952393, "model_output": 6.7296, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0408 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0227 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": 0.0136, "total": 6.7296, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.040806 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.022668 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.019822 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.018222 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013026 } ], "others_margin": 0.013689 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9899, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1211, "tackles": 1.4459, "tackles_won": 1.0022, "clearances": 5.4387, "aerial_won": 1.996, "total_shots": 0.4958, "rating": 6.7296, "minutes": 87.69, "total_pass": 24.7045, "accurate_pass": 19.5584, "duels_won": 3.4749, "total_long_balls": 2.0213, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7971, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9919, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.0309, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5274, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.4023, "possession_lost": 5.8038, "dispossessed": 0.1639, "duels_lost": 2.0273, "aerial_lost": 0.9899, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.403, "challenges_lost": 0.2269, "fouls": 0.6466, "fouls_drawn": 0.1639, "blocks": 0.8777, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "shots_on_target": 0.2669, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0052, "ball_carries": 7.3124, "total_progression": 29.7338, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2289 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 970000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9899, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0433)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1147, "tackles": 1.4459, "tackles_won": 0.9799, "clearances": 5.4387, "aerial_won": 1.996, "total_shots": 0.4743, "rating": 6.7296, "minutes": 87.69, "total_pass": 24.7045, "accurate_pass": 19.5584, "duels_won": 3.4749, "total_long_balls": 2.0213, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7971, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9919, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.0309, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7125, 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"total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.403, "challenges_lost": 0.2269, "fouls": 0.6186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1779, "blocks": 0.8777, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "shots_on_target": 0.2553, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0052, "ball_carries": 7.3124, "total_progression": 29.7338, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2289 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1147, "tackles": 1.4459, "tackles_won": 0.9799, "clearances": 5.4387, "aerial_won": 1.996, "total_shots": 0.4842, "rating": 6.7296, "minutes": 87.69, "total_pass": 24.7045, "accurate_pass": 19.5584, "duels_won": 3.4749, "total_long_balls": 2.0213, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7971, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9919, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.0309, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5274, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.4023, "possession_lost": 5.8038, "dispossessed": 0.1639, "duels_lost": 2.0273, "aerial_lost": 0.9899, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.403, "challenges_lost": 0.2269, "fouls": 0.6186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1779, "blocks": 0.8777, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "shots_on_target": 0.2553, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0052, "ball_carries": 7.3124, "total_progression": 29.7338, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2289, "opponent_faced": "Jack Grealish", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jack Grealish", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.9858, xG scale 1.0368, xA scale 1.1924, team xA 0.66 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1147, "tackles": 1.4459, "tackles_won": 0.9799, "clearances": 5.4387, "aerial_won": 1.996, "total_shots": 0.4842, "rating": 6.7296, "minutes": 87.69, "total_pass": 24.7045, "accurate_pass": 19.5584, "duels_won": 3.4749, "total_long_balls": 2.0213, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7971, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9919, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.0309, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5274, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.4023, "possession_lost": 5.8038, "dispossessed": 0.1639, "duels_lost": 2.0273, "aerial_lost": 0.9899, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.403, "challenges_lost": 0.2269, "fouls": 0.6186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1779, "blocks": 0.8777, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0124, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "shots_on_target": 0.2553, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0054, "ball_carries": 7.3124, "total_progression": 29.7338, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2289, "opponent_faced": "Jack Grealish", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8065, "creation_factor": 0.9597 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.022, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9858, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5571, "team_expected_assists": 0.6643, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0368, "xa_scale": 1.1924, "opponent_lambda": 1.693, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, 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"name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0588, "total": 0.5187, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062822 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.031111 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.011562 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.010982 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.010126 } ], "others_margin": -0.058775 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.718249797821045, "model_output": 6.7182, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": 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"projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9294 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.022, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9858, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5571, "team_expected_assists": 0.6643, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0368, "xa_scale": 1.1924, "opponent_lambda": 1.693, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 70.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9099, "tackles": 1.3936, "tackles_won": 0.8808, "clearances": 3.3404, "aerial_won": 1.4148, "total_shots": 0.5295, "rating": 6.7182, "minutes": 87.39, "total_pass": 29.1062, "accurate_pass": 24.3525, "duels_won": 3.6386, "total_long_balls": 4.039, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0236, "total_own_half_passes": 16.2025, "accurate_own_half_passes": 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0.0309 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0179 } ], "others": 0.0492, "total": 0.5141, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.906093 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.196306 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.097834 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.071583 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.039367 } ], "others_margin": 0.100429 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.127165287733078, "model_output": 0.1272, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2053 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0579 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0117 } ], "others": -0.0653, "total": 0.1272, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.205287 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.057931 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016283 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.012561 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011728 } ], "others_margin": -0.065299 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6177544593811035, "model_output": 6.6178, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0339 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.015 } ], "others": -0.0599, "total": 6.6178, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.033927 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.022856 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020114 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.015539 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.01497 } ], "others_margin": -0.059972 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0005, quality 0.508)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3166, "tackles": 0.4902, "tackles_won": 0.3479, "clearances": 0.9528, "aerial_won": 0.5144, "total_shots": 0.1273, "rating": 6.6178, "minutes": 23.89, "total_pass": 7.6349, "accurate_pass": 6.5533, "duels_won": 0.8453, "total_long_balls": 0.2268, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4442, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4442, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1907, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1091, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.4472, "possession_lost": 1.0816, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8477, "aerial_lost": 0.5809, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2668, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2668, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2668, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 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"progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.043 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0399 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0329 } ], "others": 0.0579, "total": 0.5247, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.316673 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.177249 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.042988 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.039877 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.032905 } ], "others_margin": 0.057931 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.689579486846924, "model_output": 6.6896, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.586741 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.108471 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.097311 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.068068 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.058216 } ], "others_margin": 0.072156 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.769763946533203, "model_output": 6.7698, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1208 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0898 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", 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"totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2053 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0579 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0117 } ], "others": -0.0653, "total": 0.1272, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.205287 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.057931 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016283 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.012561 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011728 } ], "others_margin": -0.065299 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6177544593811035, "model_output": 6.6178, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": 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"role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0005, quality 0.508)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3166, "tackles": 0.4902, "tackles_won": 0.3479, "clearances": 0.9528, "aerial_won": 0.5144, "total_shots": 0.1273, "rating": 6.6178, "minutes": 23.89, "total_pass": 7.6349, "accurate_pass": 6.5533, "duels_won": 0.8453, "total_long_balls": 0.2268, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4442, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4442, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1907, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1091, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.4472, "possession_lost": 1.0816, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8477, "aerial_lost": 0.5809, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2668, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2668, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2668, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0048, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8082, "total_progression": 3.0361, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1273 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8800000, "quality_factor": 0.5083, "boost_factor": 1.0005, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0152)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3118, "tackles": 0.4902, "tackles_won": 0.3426, "clearances": 0.9528, "aerial_won": 0.5144, "total_shots": 0.1254, "rating": 6.6178, "minutes": 23.89, "total_pass": 7.6349, "accurate_pass": 6.5533, "duels_won": 0.8453, "total_long_balls": 0.2268, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4442, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4442, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1907, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1091, 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6.6178, "minutes": 22.73, "total_pass": 7.2642, "accurate_pass": 6.2351, "duels_won": 0.8043, "total_long_balls": 0.2158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2284, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0358, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0067, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9399, "possession_lost": 1.0291, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8065, "aerial_lost": 0.5809, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2538, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.25, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2538, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7204, "total_progression": 2.8887, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1211, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.73, "projected_substitution_order": 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0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.148, "total_progression": 23.4696, "progressive_carries": 1.0185, "shots_off_target": 0.6323 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15000000, "quality_factor": 0.5792, "boost_factor": 1.0185, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.156, "goals": 0.1182, "goal_rate": 0.1182, "shots_on_target": 0.4804, "total_shots": 1.3886, "expected_assists": 0.0599, "key_pass": 0.7169, "rating": 6.7698, "minutes": 25.85, "total_pass": 13.1659, "accurate_pass": 8.7773, "duels_won": 4.3886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.703, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7773, "crosses_total": 1.4629, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.7947, "possession_lost": 8.7773, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 4.3886, "won_contest": 4.3886, "ball_recovery": 1.4629, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.703, "total_progression": 33.7096, "progressive_carries": 1.4629, "shots_off_target": 0.9082, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.584, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.85 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.85, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 1.4363, "appearance_probability": 0.584 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.156, "goals": 0.1182, "goal_rate": 0.1182, "shots_on_target": 0.4804, "total_shots": 1.3886, "expected_assists": 0.0599, "key_pass": 0.7169, "rating": 6.7698, "minutes": 25.85, "total_pass": 13.1659, "accurate_pass": 8.7773, "duels_won": 4.3886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.703, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7773, "crosses_total": 1.4629, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.7947, "possession_lost": 8.7773, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 4.3886, "won_contest": 4.3886, "ball_recovery": 1.4629, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.703, "total_progression": 33.7096, "progressive_carries": 1.4629, "shots_off_target": 0.9082, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.584, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.85 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 0.9858, xG scale 1.0368, xA scale 1.1924, team xA 0.66 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1617, "goal_rate": 0.1182, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4804, "total_shots": 1.3886, "expected_assists": 0.0714, "key_pass": 0.7169, "rating": 6.7698, "minutes": 25.85, "total_pass": 13.1659, "accurate_pass": 8.7773, "duels_won": 4.3886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.703, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7773, "crosses_total": 1.4629, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.7947, "possession_lost": 8.7773, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 4.3886, "won_contest": 4.3886, "ball_recovery": 1.4629, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.703, "total_progression": 33.7096, "progressive_carries": 1.4629, "shots_off_target": 0.9082, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.584, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.85, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.857, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8165, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.022, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9858, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5571, "team_expected_assists": 0.6643, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0368, "xa_scale": 1.1924, "opponent_lambda": 1.693, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.584 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.156, "after": 0.1617 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0599, "after": 0.0714 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1617, "goal_rate": 0.1182, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4804, "total_shots": 1.3886, "expected_assists": 0.0714, "key_pass": 0.7169, "rating": 6.7698, "minutes": 25.85, "total_pass": 13.1659, "accurate_pass": 8.7773, "duels_won": 4.3886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.703, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7773, "crosses_total": 1.4629, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.7947, "possession_lost": 8.7773, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 4.3886, "won_contest": 4.3886, "ball_recovery": 1.4629, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.703, "total_progression": 33.7096, "progressive_carries": 1.4629, "shots_off_target": 0.9082, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.584, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.85, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.857, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8165, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3717, "fifa_rank": 3268.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1617, "goal_rate": 0.1182, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4804, "total_shots": 1.3886, "expected_assists": 0.0714, "key_pass": 0.7169, "rating": 6.7698, "minutes": 25.85, "total_pass": 13.1659, "accurate_pass": 8.7773, "duels_won": 4.3886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.703, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7773, "crosses_total": 1.4629, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.7947, "possession_lost": 8.7773, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 4.3886, "won_contest": 4.3886, "ball_recovery": 1.4629, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.703, "total_progression": 33.7096, "progressive_carries": 1.4629, "shots_off_target": 0.9082, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.584, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.85, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.857, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0872, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8165, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0872, "scorer_weight": 0.0771, "squad_weight_total": 1.0736, "weight_share": 0.0718, "finishing_factor": 0.8165, "appearance_weight": 0.584, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1617, "goal_rate": 0.1182, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4804, "total_shots": 1.3886, "expected_assists": 0.0714, "key_pass": 0.7169, "rating": 6.7698, "minutes": 25.85, "total_pass": 13.1659, "accurate_pass": 8.7773, "duels_won": 4.3886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.703, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7773, "crosses_total": 1.4629, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.7947, "possession_lost": 8.7773, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 4.3886, "won_contest": 4.3886, "ball_recovery": 1.4629, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.703, "total_progression": 33.7096, "progressive_carries": 1.4629, "shots_off_target": 0.9082, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.584, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.85, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.857, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0872, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0402, "finishing_factor": 0.8165, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0402, "provider_weight": 0.0334, "squad_weight_total": 0.7134, "weight_share": 0.0468, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.584, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Christos Mouzakitis": { "player_id": 1416540, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 36, "height": 178, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0408, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0551, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 2.4996, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0209, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.543, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.96, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.857, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0164, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0291, "finishing_factor": 0.9171, "creation_factor": 0.9439, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4143, "combined_rank_score": 2149.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 745.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 3554.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.2, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Christos Mouzakitis", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nicolás Valentini", "ranking": 4138 }, { "player_name": "Borna Sosa", "ranking": 4139 }, { "player_name": "Nathan Broadhead", "ranking": 4140 }, { "player_name": "Fábio Cardoso", "ranking": 4141 }, { "player_name": "Jorge Sánchez", "ranking": 4142 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sammie Szmodics", "ranking": 4144 }, { "player_name": "Mathias Honsak", "ranking": 4145 }, { "player_name": "Dan Neil", "ranking": 4146 }, { "player_name": "Juan Cruz", "ranking": 4147 }, { "player_name": "Lukas Petkov", "ranking": 4148 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.95590653284853, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5434502969476606, "market_value_adjustment": 0.6858, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€26,000,000) scaled to 23.0 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position M (quality 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2, "assists": 0.16, "assist_rate": 0.16, "expected_assists": 0.181, "expected_goals": 0.116, "total_shots": 1.7, "total_pass": 60.0, "accurate_pass": 49.0, "ball_recovery": 6.3, "duels_won": 7.3, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 90.0, "total_long_balls": 5.0, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0, "total_own_half_passes": 24.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0, "crosses_total": 1.7, "crosses_accurate": 0.8, "touches": 74.0, "possession_lost": 9.8, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 4.9, "aerial_won": 1.5, "aerial_lost": 1.2, "interceptions": 1.3, "tackles_won": 1.7, "tackles": 2.3, "clearances": 1.0, "total_contest": 4.7, "won_contest": 2.7, "challenges_lost": 1.3, "fouls": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "goals": 0.09, "goal_rate": 0.09, "shots_on_target": 0.7, "shots_off_target": 0.6, "blocks": 0.4, "big_chances_created": 0.13, "big_chances_missed": 0.07, "xgot": 0.079, "ball_carries": 36.0, "total_progression": 95.0, "progressive_carries": 8.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 23.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5611, "assists": 0.0408, "assist_rate": 0.0408, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "total_shots": 0.4336, "total_pass": 15.3039, "accurate_pass": 12.4982, 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"name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2093 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0563 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0513 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0336 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.032 } ], "others": -0.1487, "total": 0.5614, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.270416 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.06592 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.063996 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.044344 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.044057 } ], "others_margin": -0.234818 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.773138046264648, "model_output": 6.7731, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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"minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0069, quality 0.725)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3749, "goals": 0.485, "goal_rate": 0.485, "shots_on_target": 1.0053, "total_shots": 2.297, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "key_pass": 0.5653, "rating": 6.7731, "minutes": 83.18, "total_pass": 14.9266, "accurate_pass": 10.4577, "duels_won": 5.5277, "total_long_balls": 0.1536, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0134, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.895, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.188, "crosses_total": 0.284, "crosses_accurate": 0.1056, "touches": 28.4612, "possession_lost": 10.1542, "dispossessed": 0.8981, "duels_lost": 8.8858, "aerial_lost": 6.0658, "total_contest": 1.187, "won_contest": 0.5325, "ball_recovery": 1.9238, "challenges_lost": 0.2763, "fouls": 1.2225, "fouls_drawn": 0.6687, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4038, "tackles_won": 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"model_output": 2.3127, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2777 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.2222 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.2387 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.1271 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1014 } ], "others": 0.6716, "total": 2.3127, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.345008 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.209818 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.185105 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.086145 }, { "name": "aerialWon", 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0.035844 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.027929 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.02053 } ], "others_margin": -0.032601 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0070, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0718, "goals": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "shots_on_target": 0.2854, "total_shots": 0.9854, "expected_assists": 0.137, "key_pass": 2.3289, "rating": 6.8452, "minutes": 86.38, "total_pass": 33.399, "accurate_pass": 27.6475, "duels_won": 5.0011, "total_long_balls": 1.6561, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8276, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8988, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5887, "crosses_total": 2.0025, "crosses_accurate": 0.4826, "touches": 50.1009, "possession_lost": 11.9541, "dispossessed": 1.0288, "duels_lost": 4.5699, "aerial_lost": 0.6271, "total_contest": 2.5696, "won_contest": 1.1243, "ball_recovery": 4.9582, "challenges_lost": 0.6277, "fouls": 0.8528, "fouls_drawn": 2.8988, "assists": 0.2313, "assist_rate": 0.2313, "interceptions": 0.4715, 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0.0793, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 23.3648, "total_progression": 94.2157, "progressive_carries": 7.3, "shots_off_target": 0.7 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0751, "goals": 0.0873, "goal_rate": 0.0873, "shots_on_target": 0.2985, "total_shots": 1.0311, "expected_assists": 0.137, "key_pass": 2.3289, "rating": 6.8452, "minutes": 86.38, "total_pass": 33.399, "accurate_pass": 27.6475, "duels_won": 5.0011, "total_long_balls": 1.6561, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8276, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.8988, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5887, "crosses_total": 2.001, "crosses_accurate": 0.4826, "touches": 50.1009, "possession_lost": 11.9541, "dispossessed": 1.0288, "duels_lost": 4.5699, "aerial_lost": 0.6271, "total_contest": 2.5696, "won_contest": 1.1243, "ball_recovery": 4.9582, "challenges_lost": 0.6277, "fouls": 0.8594, "fouls_drawn": 2.8966, "assists": 0.2311, "assist_rate": 0.2311, "interceptions": 0.4711, "tackles_won": 0.4468, "tackles": 0.8359, "clearances": 0.4927, "blocks": 0.1709, "big_chances_created": 0.3672, "big_chances_missed": 0.2123, "xgot": 0.083, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 23.3648, "total_progression": 94.2157, "progressive_carries": 7.3, "shots_off_target": 0.7326, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0466, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.232, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Semi Ajayi, Nobel Mendy", "opponent_faced": "Semi Ajayi, Nobel Mendy", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Semi Ajayi, Nobel Mendy", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical 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"blocked_own_goal": [ "Thierno Barry" ] } ] } } ] }, "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall": { "player_id": 861970, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 178, "market_value": 38000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.2417, "assist_rate": 0.1113, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2825, "goal_rate": 0.2583, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "rating": 7.1805, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 13.1354, "dispossessed": 1.8185, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 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0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0976 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0713 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.042 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0308 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0289 } ], "others": 0.061, "total": 7.1805, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.097583 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.071262 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.041983 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.030791 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028885 } ], "others_margin": 0.061157 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0097, quality 0.770)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8629, "expected_assists": 0.1747, "assists": 0.1125, "assist_rate": 0.1125, "expected_goals": 0.1967, "goals": 0.2254, "goal_rate": 0.2254, "shots_on_target": 0.7154, "total_shots": 2.4018, "rating": 7.1805, "minutes": 88.55, "total_pass": 36.2929, "accurate_pass": 30.9174, "duels_won": 5.0807, "total_long_balls": 2.0484, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5378, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8512, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.0661, "crosses_total": 3.6398, "crosses_accurate": 0.8393, "touches": 56.5248, "possession_lost": 13.1354, "dispossessed": 1.8185, "duels_lost": 5.0583, "aerial_won": 0.4798, "aerial_lost": 0.7345, "interceptions": 0.2857, "tackles_won": 0.7341, "tackles": 1.9116, "clearances": 0.6124, "total_contest": 2.2821, "won_contest": 1.0808, "challenges_lost": 0.7922, "fouls": 0.5215, "fouls_drawn": 1.6182, "blocks": 0.2395, "big_chances_created": 0.2224, "big_chances_missed": 0.3627, "xgot": 0.1271, "ball_carries": 16.983, "total_progression": 89.4997, "progressive_carries": 2.9408, "shots_off_target": 1.6864 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 38000000, "quality_factor": 0.7699, "boost_factor": 1.0097, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0106)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8629, "expected_assists": 0.1747, "assists": 0.1113, "assist_rate": 0.1113, "expected_goals": 0.1967, "goals": 0.2282, "goal_rate": 0.2282, "shots_on_target": 0.7183, "total_shots": 2.4025, "rating": 7.1805, "minutes": 88.55, "total_pass": 36.2929, "accurate_pass": 30.9174, "duels_won": 5.0807, "total_long_balls": 2.0484, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5378, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8512, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.0661, "crosses_total": 3.6481, "crosses_accurate": 0.8393, "touches": 56.5248, "possession_lost": 13.1354, "dispossessed": 1.8185, "duels_lost": 5.0583, "aerial_won": 0.4798, "aerial_lost": 0.7345, "interceptions": 0.2827, "tackles_won": 0.7419, "tackles": 1.9116, "clearances": 0.6124, "total_contest": 2.2821, "won_contest": 1.0808, "challenges_lost": 0.7922, "fouls": 0.5212, "fouls_drawn": 1.6167, "blocks": 0.2395, "big_chances_created": 0.2224, "big_chances_missed": 0.3627, "xgot": 0.1271, "ball_carries": 16.983, "total_progression": 89.4997, "progressive_carries": 2.9408, "shots_off_target": 1.6864 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0106, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9839, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", 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"clearances": 0.6124, "total_contest": 2.2821, "won_contest": 1.0808, "challenges_lost": 0.7922, "fouls": 0.5212, "fouls_drawn": 1.6167, "blocks": 0.2395, "big_chances_created": 0.2224, "big_chances_missed": 0.3627, "xgot": 0.1271, "ball_carries": 16.983, "total_progression": 89.4997, "progressive_carries": 2.9408, "shots_off_target": 1.6864 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8629, "expected_assists": 0.1747, "assists": 0.1113, "assist_rate": 0.1113, "expected_goals": 0.2226, "goals": 0.2583, "goal_rate": 0.2583, "shots_on_target": 0.8129, "total_shots": 2.7214, "rating": 7.1805, "minutes": 88.55, "total_pass": 36.2929, "accurate_pass": 30.9174, "duels_won": 5.0807, "total_long_balls": 2.0484, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5378, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8512, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.0661, "crosses_total": 3.6481, "crosses_accurate": 0.8393, "touches": 56.5248, "possession_lost": 13.1354, "dispossessed": 1.8185, "duels_lost": 5.0583, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.7345, "interceptions": 0.2827, "tackles_won": 0.7419, "tackles": 1.9116, "clearances": 0.6124, "total_contest": 2.2821, "won_contest": 1.0808, "challenges_lost": 0.7922, "fouls": 0.5212, "fouls_drawn": 1.6167, "blocks": 0.2395, "big_chances_created": 0.2224, "big_chances_missed": 0.4105, "xgot": 0.1438, "ball_carries": 16.983, "total_progression": 89.4997, "progressive_carries": 2.9408, "shots_off_target": 1.9085, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1317, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.51, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Semi Ajayi", "opponent_faced": "Semi Ajayi", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Semi Ajayi", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "duel_win_rate": 0.51, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1317, "skill_edge": 0.1496, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.7699, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Semi Ajayi", "market_value": 650000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.2226 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.4798, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.4047, "after": 2.7214 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.6864, "after": 1.9085 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7183, "after": 0.8129 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.3627, "after": 0.4105 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2282, "after": 0.2583 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", 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0.51, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Semi Ajayi", "opponent_faced": "Semi Ajayi", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2461, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.131, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2461, "scorer_weight": 0.3195, "squad_weight_total": 1.9354, "weight_share": 0.1651, "finishing_factor": 1.131, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thierno Barry", "weight": 0.708, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.708, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3195 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8629, "expected_assists": 0.2417, "assist_rate": 0.1113, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2825, "goal_rate": 0.2583, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8129, "total_shots": 2.7214, "rating": 7.1805, "minutes": 88.55, "total_pass": 36.2929, "accurate_pass": 30.9174, "duels_won": 5.0807, "total_long_balls": 2.0484, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5378, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8512, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.7983, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.0661, "crosses_total": 3.6481, "crosses_accurate": 0.8393, "touches": 56.5248, "possession_lost": 13.1354, "dispossessed": 1.8185, "duels_lost": 5.0583, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.7345, "interceptions": 0.2827, "tackles_won": 0.7419, "tackles": 1.9116, "clearances": 0.6124, "total_contest": 2.2821, "won_contest": 1.0808, "challenges_lost": 0.7922, "fouls": 0.5212, "fouls_drawn": 1.6167, 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"contribution": -0.0035 } ], "others": -0.0203, "total": 0.047, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.253341 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.128786 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.086181 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.058714 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.0509 } ], "others_margin": -0.360326 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6477810144424438, "model_output": 0.6478, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2142 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0617 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0461 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0216 } ], "others": -0.1232, "total": 0.6478, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.275996 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.072053 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.057366 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.04051 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.028466 } ], "others_margin": -0.174176 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.65890645980835, "model_output": 6.6589, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0383 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0149 } ], "others": -0.0631, "total": 6.6589, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.038281 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028384 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.018235 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.016974 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.014863 } ], "others_margin": -0.063081 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0077, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1726, "goals": 0.1743, "goal_rate": 0.1743, "shots_on_target": 0.4458, "total_shots": 1.2788, "expected_assists": 0.0473, "key_pass": 0.6528, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 74.06, "total_pass": 15.6408, "accurate_pass": 10.4052, "duels_won": 3.1394, "total_long_balls": 1.3054, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3259, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1938, "crosses_total": 3.0258, "crosses_accurate": 0.8712, "touches": 29.3778, "possession_lost": 9.8485, "dispossessed": 0.6646, "duels_lost": 3.5599, "aerial_lost": 0.7083, "total_contest": 0.9706, "won_contest": 0.3969, "ball_recovery": 2.8094, "challenges_lost": 0.6195, "fouls": 1.0459, "fouls_drawn": 0.5197, "assists": 0.0306, "assist_rate": 0.0306, "interceptions": 0.4499, "tackles_won": 1.2068, "tackles": 1.6465, "clearances": 1.2461, "blocks": 0.0116, "big_chances_created": 0.0105, "big_chances_missed": 0.2477, "xgot": 0.0142, "offsides": 0.7174, "ball_carries": 6.2291, "total_progression": 22.3672, "progressive_carries": 1.1262, "shots_off_target": 0.833 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732, "boost_factor": 1.0077, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0020)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1726, "goals": 0.174, "goal_rate": 0.174, "shots_on_target": 0.4449, "total_shots": 1.2763, "expected_assists": 0.0473, "key_pass": 0.6528, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 74.06, "total_pass": 15.6408, "accurate_pass": 10.4052, "duels_won": 3.1394, "total_long_balls": 1.3054, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3259, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1938, 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] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1726, "goals": 0.174, "goal_rate": 0.174, "shots_on_target": 0.4449, "total_shots": 1.2779, "expected_assists": 0.0473, "key_pass": 0.6528, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 74.06, "total_pass": 15.6408, "accurate_pass": 10.4052, "duels_won": 3.1394, "total_long_balls": 1.3054, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3259, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1938, "crosses_total": 3.0198, "crosses_accurate": 0.8712, "touches": 29.3778, "possession_lost": 9.8485, "dispossessed": 0.6646, "duels_lost": 3.5599, "aerial_lost": 0.7083, "total_contest": 0.9706, "won_contest": 0.3969, "ball_recovery": 2.8094, "challenges_lost": 0.6195, "fouls": 1.052, "fouls_drawn": 0.5227, "assists": 0.0305, "assist_rate": 0.0305, "interceptions": 0.449, "tackles_won": 1.2044, "tackles": 1.6465, "clearances": 1.2461, "blocks": 0.0116, "big_chances_created": 0.0105, "big_chances_missed": 0.2477, "xgot": 0.0142, "offsides": 0.72, "ball_carries": 6.2291, "total_progression": 22.3672, "progressive_carries": 1.1262, "shots_off_target": 0.833 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1971, "goals": 0.1987, "goal_rate": 0.1987, "shots_on_target": 0.5082, "total_shots": 1.4597, "expected_assists": 0.0473, "key_pass": 0.6528, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 74.06, "total_pass": 15.6408, "accurate_pass": 10.4052, "duels_won": 3.1394, "total_long_balls": 1.3054, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3259, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1938, "crosses_total": 3.0198, "crosses_accurate": 0.8712, "touches": 29.3778, "possession_lost": 9.8485, "dispossessed": 0.6646, "duels_lost": 3.5599, "aerial_lost": 0.7083, "total_contest": 0.9706, "won_contest": 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"Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.297, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.1422, "skill_edge": 0.1127, "height_edge": -0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.732, "defender_skill": 0.4815, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Semi Ajayi", "market_value": 650000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 }, { "player": "Nobel Mendy", "market_value": 7700000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5256 } ], "xg_override": 0.1971 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2779, "after": 1.4597 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.833, "after": 0.9515 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4449, "after": 0.5082 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2477, "after": 0.2829 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.174, "after": 0.1987 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1726, "after": 0.1971 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.69 (squad xG sum 1.3341, xG scale 1.2691, xA scale 1.3838, team xA 1.10 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2501, "goal_rate": 0.1987, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5082, "total_shots": 1.4597, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "key_pass": 0.6528, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 74.06, "total_pass": 15.6408, "accurate_pass": 10.4052, "duels_won": 3.1394, "total_long_balls": 1.3054, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3259, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1938, "crosses_total": 3.0198, "crosses_accurate": 0.8712, "touches": 29.3778, "possession_lost": 9.8485, "dispossessed": 0.6646, "duels_lost": 3.5599, "aerial_lost": 0.7083, "total_contest": 0.9706, "won_contest": 0.3969, "ball_recovery": 2.8094, "challenges_lost": 0.6195, "fouls": 1.052, "fouls_drawn": 0.5227, "assist_rate": 0.0305, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.449, 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0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2691, "xa_scale": 1.3838, "opponent_lambda": 1.022, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1971, "after": 0.2501 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0473, "after": 0.0655 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2501, "goal_rate": 0.1987, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5082, "total_shots": 1.4597, "expected_assists": 0.0655, "key_pass": 0.6528, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 74.06, "total_pass": 15.6408, "accurate_pass": 10.4052, "duels_won": 3.1394, "total_long_balls": 1.3054, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3259, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1938, "crosses_total": 3.0198, "crosses_accurate": 0.8712, "touches": 29.3778, "possession_lost": 9.8485, "dispossessed": 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0064 } ], "others": -0.0066, "total": 0.0847, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121095 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.097604 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.085434 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.078651 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.073221 } ], "others_margin": 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}, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.021281 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.020001 } ], "others_margin": 0.011535 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0028831958770752, "model_output": 1.0029, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1416 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0707 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0552 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0379 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0126 } ], "others": 0.0472, "total": 1.0029, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.141612 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.070716 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.055229 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.037859 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.0126 } ], "others_margin": 0.04721 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.752806663513184, "model_output": 6.7528, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0444 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0254 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0227 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0079 } ], "others": -0.0175, "total": 6.7528, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.044378 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.02544 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.02358 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.02265 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.007856 } ], "others_margin": -0.017461 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 18, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0029, quality 0.550)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7161, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "assists": 0.0632, "assist_rate": 0.0632, "expected_goals": 0.094, "goals": 0.085, "goal_rate": 0.085, "shots_on_target": 0.3365, "total_shots": 1.0058, "rating": 6.7528, "minutes": 84.21, "total_pass": 29.7545, "accurate_pass": 25.3882, "duels_won": 3.3197, "total_long_balls": 1.1632, "accurate_long_balls": 0.596, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9165, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8754, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.838, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5128, "crosses_total": 0.1109, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.49, "possession_lost": 8.3422, "dispossessed": 0.8902, "duels_lost": 4.4008, "aerial_won": 0.484, "aerial_lost": 1.0356, "interceptions": 0.6591, "tackles_won": 1.156, "tackles": 1.5657, "clearances": 1.1098, 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"matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Matt Crooks", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.69 (squad xG sum 1.3341, xG scale 1.2691, xA scale 1.3838, team xA 1.10 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7161, "expected_assists": 0.0901, "assist_rate": 0.0709, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1193, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3305, "total_shots": 0.9997, "rating": 6.7528, "minutes": 84.21, "total_pass": 29.7545, "accurate_pass": 25.3882, "duels_won": 3.3197, "total_long_balls": 1.1632, "accurate_long_balls": 0.596, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9165, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8754, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.838, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5128, "crosses_total": 0.1177, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.49, "possession_lost": 8.3422, "dispossessed": 0.8902, "duels_lost": 4.4008, "aerial_won": 0.484, "aerial_lost": 1.0356, "interceptions": 0.6826, "tackles_won": 1.1618, "tackles": 1.5657, "clearances": 1.1098, "total_contest": 1.0528, "won_contest": 0.3468, "challenges_lost": 0.3611, "fouls": 1.4267, "fouls_drawn": 0.9243, "blocks": 0.4593, "big_chances_created": 0.3043, "big_chances_missed": 0.0711, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 11.8231, "total_progression": 31.7987, "progressive_carries": 1.2865, "shots_off_target": 0.6692, "opponent_faced": "Matt Crooks", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9271, "creation_factor": 1.0504 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.693, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3341, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7953, "team_expected_assists": 1.1005, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2691, "xa_scale": 1.3838, "opponent_lambda": 1.022, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.094, "after": 0.1193 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0651, "after": 0.0901 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7161, "expected_assists": 0.0901, "assist_rate": 0.0709, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1193, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3305, "total_shots": 0.9997, "rating": 6.7528, "minutes": 84.21, "total_pass": 29.7545, "accurate_pass": 25.3882, "duels_won": 3.3197, "total_long_balls": 1.1632, "accurate_long_balls": 0.596, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9165, 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"creation_factor": 1.0504, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4036, "fifa_rank": 3257.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7161, "expected_assists": 0.0901, "assist_rate": 0.0709, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1193, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3305, "total_shots": 0.9997, "rating": 6.7528, "minutes": 84.21, "total_pass": 29.7545, "accurate_pass": 25.3882, "duels_won": 3.3197, "total_long_balls": 1.1632, "accurate_long_balls": 0.596, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9165, "accurate_own_half_passes": 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}, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7261433601379395, "model_output": 0.7261, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1339 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0443 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.04 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0169 } ], "others": -0.0001, "total": 0.7261, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.13394 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.044267 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.039975 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.019957 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9987, quality 0.465)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.174, "tackles": 1.5168, "tackles_won": 1.0057, "clearances": 5.5547, "aerial_won": 3.1594, "total_shots": 0.7252, "rating": 6.9944, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 44.5463, "accurate_pass": 36.9156, "duels_won": 6.9854, "total_long_balls": 5.8601, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2049, "total_own_half_passes": 26.7284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.9853, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8179, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9305, "crosses_total": 0.137, "crosses_accurate": 0.003, "touches": 58.4656, "possession_lost": 8.2269, "dispossessed": 0.0095, "duels_lost": 2.2451, "aerial_lost": 1.4212, "total_contest": 0.1658, "won_contest": 0.018, "ball_recovery": 3.1339, "challenges_lost": 0.0606, "fouls": 0.6356, "fouls_drawn": 1.2597, "blocks": 0.9198, "goals": 0.1822, 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"margin": -0.041321 } ], "others_margin": -0.064679 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5971881151199341, "model_output": 0.5972, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0556 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0457 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0367 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0245 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0227 } ], "others": -0.0591, "total": 0.5972, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.055649 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.045702 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.036691 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.024532 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.022729 } ], "others_margin": -0.059245 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.645544052124023, "model_output": 6.6455, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.04 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0155 } ], "others": -0.0657, "total": 6.6455, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.040026 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.023387 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.022982 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.018768 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.015544 } ], "others_margin": -0.065654 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0052, quality 0.533)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8248, "tackles": 1.8423, "tackles_won": 1.1714, "clearances": 2.0531, "aerial_won": 0.7365, "total_shots": 0.6003, "rating": 6.6455, "minutes": 86.28, "total_pass": 24.0467, "accurate_pass": 21.1551, "duels_won": 3.7316, "total_long_balls": 1.4458, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0551, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6834, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0311, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.4717, "crosses_total": 1.4458, "crosses_accurate": 0.3907, "touches": 38.1898, "possession_lost": 5.8417, "dispossessed": 0.3907, "duels_lost": 2.0104, "aerial_lost": 0.9553, "total_contest": 1.1137, "won_contest": 1.1137, "ball_recovery": 2.5008, "challenges_lost": 0.6642, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3907, "blocks": 0.3907, "goals": 0.2824, 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11.6834, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0311, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.4717, "crosses_total": 1.4458, "crosses_accurate": 0.3907, "touches": 38.1898, "possession_lost": 5.8417, "dispossessed": 0.3907, "duels_lost": 2.0104, "aerial_lost": 0.9553, "total_contest": 1.1137, "won_contest": 1.1137, "ball_recovery": 2.5008, "challenges_lost": 0.6642, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3907, "blocks": 0.3907, "goals": 0.2824, "goal_rate": 0.2824, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0168, "expected_assists": 0.0893, "shots_on_target": 0.2824, "big_chances_created": 0.3907, "xgot": 0.1192, "ball_carries": 9.964, "total_progression": 46.2927, "progressive_carries": 2.1686, "key_pass": 1.1137, "shots_off_target": 0.3179 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8248, "tackles": 1.8423, "tackles_won": 1.1714, "clearances": 2.0531, "aerial_won": 0.7365, "total_shots": 0.6003, "rating": 6.6455, "minutes": 86.28, "total_pass": 24.0467, "accurate_pass": 21.1551, "duels_won": 3.7316, "total_long_balls": 1.4458, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0551, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6834, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0311, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.4717, "crosses_total": 1.4458, "crosses_accurate": 0.3907, "touches": 38.1898, "possession_lost": 5.8417, "dispossessed": 0.3907, "duels_lost": 2.0104, "aerial_lost": 0.9553, "total_contest": 1.1137, "won_contest": 1.1137, "ball_recovery": 2.5008, "challenges_lost": 0.6642, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3907, "blocks": 0.3907, "goals": 0.2824, "goal_rate": 0.2824, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0168, "expected_assists": 0.0893, "shots_on_target": 0.2824, "big_chances_created": 0.3907, "xgot": 0.1192, "ball_carries": 9.964, "total_progression": 46.2927, "progressive_carries": 2.1686, 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"interceptions": 0.8248, "tackles": 1.8423, "tackles_won": 1.1714, "clearances": 2.0531, "aerial_won": 0.7365, "total_shots": 0.6003, "rating": 6.6455, "minutes": 86.28, "total_pass": 24.0467, "accurate_pass": 21.1551, "duels_won": 3.7316, "total_long_balls": 1.4458, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0551, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6834, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0311, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.4717, "crosses_total": 1.4458, "crosses_accurate": 0.3907, "touches": 38.1898, "possession_lost": 5.8417, "dispossessed": 0.3907, "duels_lost": 2.0104, "aerial_lost": 0.9553, "total_contest": 1.1137, "won_contest": 1.1137, "ball_recovery": 2.5008, "challenges_lost": 0.6642, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3907, "blocks": 0.3907, "goal_rate": 0.2824, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0213, "expected_assists": 0.1236, "shots_on_target": 0.2824, "big_chances_created": 0.3907, "xgot": 0.1513, "ball_carries": 9.964, 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"step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8248, "tackles": 1.8423, "tackles_won": 1.1714, "clearances": 2.0531, "aerial_won": 0.7365, "total_shots": 0.6003, "rating": 6.6455, "minutes": 86.28, "total_pass": 24.0467, "accurate_pass": 21.1551, "duels_won": 3.7316, "total_long_balls": 1.4458, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0551, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6834, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0311, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.4717, "crosses_total": 1.4458, "crosses_accurate": 0.3907, "touches": 38.1898, "possession_lost": 5.8417, "dispossessed": 0.3907, "duels_lost": 2.0104, "aerial_lost": 0.9553, "total_contest": 1.1137, "won_contest": 1.1137, "ball_recovery": 2.5008, "challenges_lost": 0.6642, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3907, "blocks": 0.3907, "goal_rate": 0.2824, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thierno Barry", "weight": 0.708, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.708, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3195 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8248, "tackles": 1.8423, "tackles_won": 1.1714, "clearances": 2.0531, "aerial_won": 0.7365, "total_shots": 0.6003, "rating": 6.6455, "minutes": 86.28, "total_pass": 24.0467, "accurate_pass": 21.1551, "duels_won": 3.7316, "total_long_balls": 1.4458, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0551, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6834, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0311, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.4717, "crosses_total": 1.4458, "crosses_accurate": 0.3907, "touches": 38.1898, 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"totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.032 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0104 } ], "others": -0.0256, "total": 0.312, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.750549 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.082674 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.034414 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.030601 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.030273 } ], "others_margin": -0.078832 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.875861644744873, "model_output": 0.8759, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.2046 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2045 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1313 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0684 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0314 } ], "others": 0.0019, "total": 0.8759, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.01819 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.179105 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.134584 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.07799 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.036595 } ], "others_margin": 0.001943 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.4037598967552185, "model_output": 0.4038, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8405 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.114 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0426 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0395 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0263 } ], "others": -0.0005, "total": 0.4038, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.936881 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.236427 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.094905 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.087726 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.062927 } ], "others_margin": -0.001433 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.19404621422290802, "model_output": 0.194, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.196 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0706 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.0271, "total": 0.194, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.196025 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.070595 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.014082 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.012473 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.009993 } ], "others_margin": -0.027028 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.708639144897461, "model_output": 6.7086, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0297 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0179 } ], "others": -0.0625, "total": 6.7086, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.047953 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.029688 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.028288 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.021887 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.017912 } ], "others_margin": -0.062492 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0035, quality 0.533)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2959, "tackles": 0.5516, "tackles_won": 0.3131, "clearances": 0.8789, "aerial_won": 0.4052, "total_shots": 0.1947, "rating": 6.7086, "minutes": 11.11, "total_pass": 2.0401, "accurate_pass": 0.9965, "duels_won": 0.4611, "total_long_balls": 0.4611, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.5354, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5354, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5047, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.4611, "crosses_total": 0.9964, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.4609, "possession_lost": 2.2676, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2676, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0056, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "shots_on_target": 0.1934, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 0.1934, "total_progression": 0.8529, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0013 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10900000, "quality_factor": 0.533, "boost_factor": 1.0035, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 11.1 to 14.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.32)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3716, "tackles": 0.6926, "tackles_won": 0.3932, "clearances": 1.1036, "aerial_won": 0.5088, "total_shots": 0.2445, "rating": 6.7086, "minutes": 13.95, "total_pass": 2.5617, "accurate_pass": 1.2513, "duels_won": 0.579, "total_long_balls": 0.579, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.6723, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.6723, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8894, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.579, "crosses_total": 1.2512, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.6015, "possession_lost": 2.8474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.336, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.007, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "shots_on_target": 0.2428, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0146, "ball_carries": 0.2428, "total_progression": 1.071, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0016, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.316, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.95 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.95, "projection_minutes": 11.11, "minutes_scale": 1.2557, "appearance_probability": 0.316 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 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0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1382 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0484 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0304 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0085 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0073 } ], "others": -0.0158, "total": 0.107, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.556316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.30223 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.250002 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.076518 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.060948 } ], "others_margin": -0.136344 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3211660087108612, "model_output": 0.3212, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4131 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2168 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0537 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0307 } ], "others": -0.0269, "total": 0.3212, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.413073 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.216752 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.053679 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.035501 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.030679 } ], "others_margin": -0.026972 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.674549102783203, "model_output": 6.6745, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0858 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0445 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0069 } ], "others": -0.0108, "total": 6.6745, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.085843 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.044522 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018863 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.007523 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.006899 } ], "others_margin": -0.010671 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0370, quality 0.752)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3476, "expected_assists": 0.033, "assists": 0.0641, "assist_rate": 0.0641, "expected_goals": 0.0241, "goals": 0.0378, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "shots_on_target": 0.111, "total_shots": 0.333, "rating": 6.6745, "minutes": 16.54, "total_pass": 8.7303, "accurate_pass": 8.0602, "duels_won": 0.2351, "total_long_balls": 0.2766, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2766, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0998, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0998, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9604, "crosses_total": 0.8699, "crosses_accurate": 0.2351, "touches": 12.8073, "possession_lost": 2.3772, "dispossessed": 0.2351, "duels_lost": 1.5622, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1998, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2351, "clearances": 0.2766, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0506, "fouls": 0.2766, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1998, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9352, "total_progression": 18.7773, "progressive_carries": 0.4703, "shots_off_target": 0.222 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 35000000, "quality_factor": 0.752, "boost_factor": 1.037, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0260)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3476, "expected_assists": 0.033, "assists": 0.0624, "assist_rate": 0.0624, "expected_goals": 0.0241, "goals": 0.0368, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "shots_on_target": 0.1081, "total_shots": 0.3284, "rating": 6.6745, "minutes": 16.54, "total_pass": 8.7303, "accurate_pass": 8.0602, "duels_won": 0.2351, "total_long_balls": 0.2766, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2766, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0998, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0998, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9604, "crosses_total": 0.8632, "crosses_accurate": 0.2351, "touches": 12.8073, "possession_lost": 2.3772, "dispossessed": 0.2351, "duels_lost": 1.5622, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1986, "tackles_won": 0.004, "tackles": 0.2351, "clearances": 0.2766, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0506, "fouls": 0.2734, "fouls_drawn": 0.0119, "blocks": 0.1998, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9352, "total_progression": 18.7773, "progressive_carries": 0.4703, "shots_off_target": 0.222 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.026, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1838, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0119 }, { "stat": "totalCross", 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scale 1.3838, team xA 1.10 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5214, "expected_assists": 0.0685, "assist_rate": 0.0936, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0459, "goal_rate": 0.0552, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1622, "total_shots": 0.4952, "rating": 6.6745, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 13.0954, "accurate_pass": 12.0903, "duels_won": 0.3527, "total_long_balls": 0.4149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4149, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6497, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6497, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4458, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4406, "crosses_total": 1.2948, "crosses_accurate": 0.3527, "touches": 19.211, "possession_lost": 3.5658, "dispossessed": 0.2351, "duels_lost": 2.3433, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2979, "tackles_won": 0.006, "tackles": 0.3527, "clearances": 0.4149, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0506, "fouls": 0.4101, "fouls_drawn": 0.0179, "blocks": 0.2997, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4028, "total_progression": 28.166, "progressive_carries": 0.7055, "shots_off_target": 0.333, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.254, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2204, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.693, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3341, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7953, "team_expected_assists": 1.1005, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2691, "xa_scale": 1.3838, "opponent_lambda": 1.022, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.525 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0362, "after": 0.0459 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0495, "after": 0.0685 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5214, "expected_assists": 0.0685, "assist_rate": 0.0936, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0459, "goal_rate": 0.0552, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1622, "total_shots": 0.4952, "rating": 6.6745, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 13.0954, "accurate_pass": 12.0903, "duels_won": 0.3527, "total_long_balls": 0.4149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4149, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6497, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6497, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4458, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4406, "crosses_total": 1.2948, "crosses_accurate": 0.3527, "touches": 19.211, "possession_lost": 3.5658, "dispossessed": 0.2351, "duels_lost": 2.3433, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2979, "tackles_won": 0.006, 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"role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0081, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0578, "goals": 0.0675, "goal_rate": 0.0675, "shots_on_target": 0.2515, "total_shots": 0.7009, "expected_assists": 0.0472, "key_pass": 0.4109, "rating": 6.7261, "minutes": 17.81, "total_pass": 6.7267, "accurate_pass": 5.6155, "duels_won": 1.326, "total_long_balls": 0.1975, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1198, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0436, "crosses_total": 0.9029, "crosses_accurate": 0.3603, "touches": 11.6821, "possession_lost": 2.9631, "dispossessed": 0.3085, "duels_lost": 1.0016, "aerial_lost": 0.0865, "total_contest": 0.8327, "won_contest": 0.4977, "ball_recovery": 0.969, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2717, "fouls_drawn": 0.3236, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1017, "tackles_won": 0.3486, 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"league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023930, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1987, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025035, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4726, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025022, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5733, "expected_assists": 0.0094, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024017, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 9.0, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.6024, "expected_assists": 0.0485, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023987, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1091, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3149, "combined_rank_score": 1115.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 803.0, "sofascore_rating": 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"defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.021 } ], "others": -0.0617, "total": 0.283, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.492474 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.090659 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.086566 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.063676 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.062782 } ], "others_margin": -0.197113 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.587714195251465, "model_output": 6.5877, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.053 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.624)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1206, "goals": 0.1537, "goal_rate": 0.1537, "shots_on_target": 0.3233, "total_shots": 0.7722, "expected_assists": 0.0142, "key_pass": 0.2842, "rating": 6.5877, "minutes": 17.17, "total_pass": 2.3642, "accurate_pass": 1.3989, "duels_won": 1.0662, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.5997, "crosses_total": 0.183, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.5212, "possession_lost": 2.6199, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.0865, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.4202, "won_contest": 0.1113, "ball_recovery": 0.2405, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.4288, "fouls_drawn": 0.0051, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0584, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1176, "clearances": 0.206, "blocks": 0.1549, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.015, "xgot": 0.0823, "offsides": 0.0843, "ball_carries": 0.9276, "total_progression": 0.9415, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4489 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19300000, "quality_factor": 0.6241, "boost_factor": 1.0041, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0020)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1206, "goals": 0.1534, "goal_rate": 0.1534, "shots_on_target": 0.3227, "total_shots": 0.7727, "expected_assists": 0.0142, "key_pass": 0.2842, "rating": 6.5877, "minutes": 17.17, "total_pass": 2.3642, "accurate_pass": 1.3989, "duels_won": 1.0662, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.5997, "crosses_total": 0.1836, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.5212, "possession_lost": 2.6199, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.0865, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.4202, "won_contest": 0.1113, "ball_recovery": 0.2405, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.428, "fouls_drawn": 0.0051, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0583, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1176, "clearances": 0.206, "blocks": 0.1549, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.015, "xgot": 0.0823, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 0.9276, "total_progression": 0.9415, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4489 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.002, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1908, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.2 to 21.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1479, "goals": 0.1882, "goal_rate": 0.1882, "shots_on_target": 0.3958, "total_shots": 0.9478, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "key_pass": 0.3486, "rating": 6.5877, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.1009, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5506, 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"integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1877, "goal_rate": 0.1882, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3958, "total_shots": 0.9478, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "key_pass": 0.3486, "rating": 6.5877, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, 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"shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024017, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 9.0, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.6024, "expected_assists": 0.0485, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023987, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1091, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3149, "combined_rank_score": 1115.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 803.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6194, "sofascore_appearances": 37.0, "fifa_rank": 1428.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.5877, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Beto", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Luciano Valente", "ranking": 3144 }, { "player_name": "Michael Keane", "ranking": 3145 }, { "player_name": "Ao Tanaka", "ranking": 3146 }, { "player_name": "Fábio Vieira", "ranking": 3147 }, { "player_name": "Emanuel Emegha", "ranking": 3148 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Chemsdine Talbi", "ranking": 3150 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Fernández", "ranking": 3151 }, { "player_name": "Michal Sadílek", "ranking": 3152 }, { "player_name": "Tammy Abraham", "ranking": 3153 }, { "player_name": "Rafa Marín", "ranking": 3154 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.754, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 39, "data_confidence": 0.754, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.734, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0041, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Everton", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 17.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0267 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (39 historical appearances) to 21.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.73); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 17.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1201, "goals": 0.1531, "goal_rate": 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"2026-04-19", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 9.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1988, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 3.1353, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 1.8159, "accuratePass": 3.3859, "totalShots": 1.3325 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.12007998675107956, "model_output": 0.1201, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 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"importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0829 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0071 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0061 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0061 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0056 } ], "others": 0.0074, "total": 0.1531, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.522522 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.057007 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.046547 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.044433 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.039257 } ], "others_margin": 0.049505 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.3219776451587677, "model_output": 0.322, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2328 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0002, "total": 0.322, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.568498 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.039189 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.034696 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.033369 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.028802 } ], "others_margin": -0.000658 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7690419554710388, "model_output": 0.769, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5511 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0624 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0315 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0191 } ], "others": 0.0163, "total": 0.769, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.551138 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.062354 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.031484 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.024881 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.019137 } ], "others_margin": 0.016361 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.014118791557848454, "model_output": 0.0141, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0028 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0021 } ], "others": -0.0107, "total": 0.0141, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.36115 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.303505 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.107379 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.100022 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.082514 } ], "others_margin": -0.561223 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.28301236033439636, "model_output": 0.283, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2621 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0357 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0312 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.021 } ], "others": -0.0617, "total": 0.283, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.492474 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.090659 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.086566 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.063676 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.062782 } ], "others_margin": -0.197113 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.587714195251465, "model_output": 6.5877, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.053 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0144 } ], "others": -0.0586, "total": 6.5877, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.052954 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.01944 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01462 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.014504 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014431 } ], "others_margin": -0.058499 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.624)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1206, "goals": 0.1537, "goal_rate": 0.1537, "shots_on_target": 0.3233, "total_shots": 0.7722, "expected_assists": 0.0142, "key_pass": 0.2842, "rating": 6.5877, "minutes": 17.17, "total_pass": 2.3642, "accurate_pass": 1.3989, "duels_won": 1.0662, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.5997, "crosses_total": 0.183, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.5212, "possession_lost": 2.6199, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.0865, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.4202, "won_contest": 0.1113, "ball_recovery": 0.2405, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.4288, "fouls_drawn": 0.0051, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0584, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1176, "clearances": 0.206, "blocks": 0.1549, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.015, "xgot": 0.0823, "offsides": 0.0843, "ball_carries": 0.9276, "total_progression": 0.9415, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4489 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19300000, "quality_factor": 0.6241, "boost_factor": 1.0041, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0020)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1206, "goals": 0.1534, "goal_rate": 0.1534, "shots_on_target": 0.3227, "total_shots": 0.7727, "expected_assists": 0.0142, "key_pass": 0.2842, "rating": 6.5877, "minutes": 17.17, "total_pass": 2.3642, "accurate_pass": 1.3989, "duels_won": 1.0662, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.353, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.5997, "crosses_total": 0.1836, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.5212, "possession_lost": 2.6199, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.0865, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.4202, "won_contest": 0.1113, "ball_recovery": 0.2405, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.428, "fouls_drawn": 0.0051, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0583, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1176, "clearances": 0.206, "blocks": 0.1549, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.015, "xgot": 0.0823, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 0.9276, "total_progression": 0.9415, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4489 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.002, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1908, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.2 to 21.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1479, "goals": 0.1882, "goal_rate": 0.1882, "shots_on_target": 0.3958, "total_shots": 0.9478, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "key_pass": 0.3486, "rating": 6.5877, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.1009, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5506, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.06, "projection_minutes": 17.17, "minutes_scale": 1.2266, "appearance_probability": 0.734 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1479, "goals": 0.1882, "goal_rate": 0.1882, "shots_on_target": 0.3958, "total_shots": 0.9478, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "key_pass": 0.3486, "rating": 6.5877, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.6595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.7356, "crosses_total": 0.2252, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.9986, "possession_lost": 3.2135, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 3.7858, "aerial_lost": 2.0266, "total_contest": 0.5154, "won_contest": 0.1365, "ball_recovery": 0.295, "challenges_lost": 0.0688, "fouls": 0.525, "fouls_drawn": 0.0063, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0715, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1442, "clearances": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.19, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0184, "xgot": 0.1009, "offsides": 0.0841, "ball_carries": 1.1378, "total_progression": 1.1548, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5506, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.734, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.06 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.69 (squad xG sum 1.3341, xG scale 1.2691, xA scale 1.3838, team xA 1.10 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1877, "goal_rate": 0.1882, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3958, "total_shots": 0.9478, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "key_pass": 0.3486, "rating": 6.5877, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 2.8998, "accurate_pass": 1.7158, "duels_won": 1.3078, 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"total": 0.3212, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.413073 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.216752 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.053679 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.035501 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.030679 } ], "others_margin": -0.026972 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.674549102783203, "model_output": 6.6745, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0858 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0445 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": 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"tackles": 0.3527, "clearances": 0.4149, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0506, "fouls": 0.4101, "fouls_drawn": 0.0179, "blocks": 0.2997, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4028, "total_progression": 28.166, "progressive_carries": 0.7055, "shots_off_target": 0.333, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.254, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2204, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2871, "fifa_rank": 1429.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5214, "expected_assists": 0.0685, "assist_rate": 0.0936, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0459, "goal_rate": 0.0552, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1622, "total_shots": 0.4952, "rating": 6.6745, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 13.0954, "accurate_pass": 12.0903, "duels_won": 0.3527, "total_long_balls": 0.4149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4149, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6497, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6497, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4458, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4406, "crosses_total": 1.2948, "crosses_accurate": 0.3527, "touches": 19.211, "possession_lost": 3.5658, "dispossessed": 0.2351, "duels_lost": 2.3433, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2979, "tackles_won": 0.006, "tackles": 0.3527, "clearances": 0.4149, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0506, "fouls": 0.4101, "fouls_drawn": 0.0179, "blocks": 0.2997, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4028, "total_progression": 28.166, "progressive_carries": 0.7055, "shots_off_target": 0.333, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.254, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0236, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2204, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0236, "scorer_weight": 0.0294, "squad_weight_total": 1.9354, "weight_share": 0.0152, "finishing_factor": 1.2204, "appearance_weight": 0.525, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thierno Barry", "weight": 0.708, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.708, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3195 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5214, "expected_assists": 0.0685, "assist_rate": 0.0936, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0459, "goal_rate": 0.0552, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1622, "total_shots": 0.4952, "rating": 6.6745, "minutes": 26.4, "total_pass": 13.0954, "accurate_pass": 12.0903, "duels_won": 0.3527, "total_long_balls": 0.4149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4149, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6497, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6497, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4458, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4406, "crosses_total": 1.2948, "crosses_accurate": 0.3527, "touches": 19.211, "possession_lost": 3.5658, "dispossessed": 0.2351, "duels_lost": 2.3433, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2979, "tackles_won": 0.006, "tackles": 0.3527, "clearances": 0.4149, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0506, "fouls": 0.4101, "fouls_drawn": 0.0179, "blocks": 0.2997, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4028, "total_progression": 28.166, "progressive_carries": 0.7055, "shots_off_target": 0.333, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.254, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0236, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0348, "finishing_factor": 1.2204, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0348, "provider_weight": 0.045, "squad_weight_total": 1.0337, "weight_share": 0.0435, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.525, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jack Grealish", "weight": 0.237, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.237, "runner_up": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1934, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Thierno Barry" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.69, "expected_assists": 1.1, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 392, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.88, "possession_estimated_pct": 53.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.1 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Sorba Thomas", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 14500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.574, "defenders": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite", "Vitaliy Mykolenko" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.736, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1266, "xg_multiplier": 0.8393, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sorba Thomas (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Jarrad Branthwaite and Vitaliy Mykolenko in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€14M vs €34M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.84 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.127 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Oli McBurnie", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5400000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.467, "defenders": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite", "Vitaliy Mykolenko" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.736, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.226, "xg_multiplier": 0.7864, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oli McBurnie (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jarrad Branthwaite and Vitaliy Mykolenko in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €34M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.79 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.226 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Mohamed Belloumi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5700000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.471, "defenders": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite", "Vitaliy Mykolenko" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.736, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1566, "xg_multiplier": 0.7242, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mohamed Belloumi (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jarrad Branthwaite and Vitaliy Mykolenko in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€6M vs €34M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.72 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.157 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Regan Slater", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 5100000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.463, "defenders": [ "Ainsley Maitland-Niles" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.533, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.388, "xg_contribution": 0.077, "xg_multiplier": 0.8945, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "role": "RB", "market_value": 10900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.612 } ], "duel_analysis": "Regan Slater (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Ainsley Maitland-Niles in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.89 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.077 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ryan Giles", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 10900000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.533, "defenders": [ "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "Jordan Pickford" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB", "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.55, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.269, "xg_contribution": 0.0029, "xg_multiplier": 0.9541, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "role": "RB", "market_value": 10900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.731 }, { "player": "Jordan Pickford", "role": "GK", "market_value": 13900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.731 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ryan Giles (LWB) is evenly matched against Ainsley Maitland-Niles and Jordan Pickford in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.003 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Lewie Coyle", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 1300000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "James Tarkowski" ], "defender_roles": [ "LW", "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.617, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0251, "xg_multiplier": 0.8221, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "role": "LW", "market_value": 38000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "James Tarkowski", "role": "LB", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lewie Coyle (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and James Tarkowski in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €22M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.82 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.025 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Matt Crooks", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 725000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Harrison Armstrong" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.55, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.42, "xg_contribution": 0.0442, "xg_multiplier": 0.9563, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Harrison Armstrong", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 12400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.58 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matt Crooks (CM) is evenly matched against Harrison Armstrong in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 38000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.77, "defenders": [ "Semi Ajayi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.51, "xg_contribution": 0.2226, "xg_multiplier": 1.1317, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Semi Ajayi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 650000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.49 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (LW) is slightly favored against Semi Ajayi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€38M vs €1M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.13 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.223 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Thierno Barry", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Semi Ajayi", "Nobel Mendy" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.466, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.33, "xg_contribution": 0.4463, "xg_multiplier": 1.1904, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Semi Ajayi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 650000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.67 }, { "player": "Nobel Mendy", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.67 } ], "duel_analysis": "Thierno Barry (ST) is slightly favored against Semi Ajayi and Nobel Mendy in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€31M vs €4M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.19 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.446 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Jack Grealish", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Semi Ajayi", "Nobel Mendy" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.466, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.232, "xg_contribution": 0.0751, "xg_multiplier": 1.0466, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Semi Ajayi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 650000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.768 }, { "player": "Nobel Mendy", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.768 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jack Grealish (ST) is evenly matched against Semi Ajayi and Nobel Mendy in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €4M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.075 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Brennan Johnson", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Semi Ajayi", "Nobel Mendy" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.466, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.297, "xg_contribution": 0.1971, "xg_multiplier": 1.1422, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Semi Ajayi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 650000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.703 }, { "player": "Nobel Mendy", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.703 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brennan Johnson (ST) is slightly favored against Semi Ajayi and Nobel Mendy in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€32M vs €4M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.14 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.197 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.425, "away_midfield_power": 0.712, "home_creative_power": 0.394, "away_creative_power": 0.677, "home_defensive_power": 0.448, "away_defensive_power": 0.704, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.374, "home_midfield_count": 2, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Regan Slater", "Matt Crooks" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "Harrison Armstrong", "James Garner" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 46.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 53.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.1, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.6, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.6, "key_personal_duel": "Regan Slater vs James Garner", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.953, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.042 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "5-4-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 5-4-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.022, "away_lambda": 1.693, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "LW vs CB" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Sorba Thomas": { "opponents": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite", "Vitaliy Mykolenko" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Oli McBurnie": { "opponents": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite", "Vitaliy Mykolenko" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mohamed Belloumi": { "opponents": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite", "Vitaliy Mykolenko" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Regan Slater": { "opponents": [ "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "James Garner" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ryan Giles": { "opponents": [ "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "Jordan Pickford" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lewie Coyle": { "opponents": [ "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "James Tarkowski" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Matt Crooks": { "opponents": [ "Harrison Armstrong", "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Semi Ajayi": { "opponents": [ "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "Thierno Barry", "Jack Grealish", "Brennan Johnson" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nobel Mendy": { "opponents": [ "Thierno Barry", "Jack Grealish", "Brennan Johnson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Konstantinos Tzolakis": { "opponents": [ "Brennan Johnson", "Thierno Barry" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "John Egan": { "opponents": [ "Jack Grealish" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jarrad Branthwaite": { "opponents": [ "Sorba Thomas", "Oli McBurnie", "Mohamed Belloumi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Vitaliy Mykolenko": { "opponents": [ "Sorba Thomas", "Oli McBurnie", "Mohamed Belloumi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ainsley Maitland-Niles": { "opponents": [ "Regan Slater", "Ryan Giles" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jordan Pickford": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Giles" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall": { "opponents": [ "Lewie Coyle", "Semi Ajayi", "Matt Crooks" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "James Tarkowski": { "opponents": [ "Lewie Coyle" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Harrison Armstrong": { "opponents": [ "Matt Crooks" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Thierno Barry": { "opponents": [ "Semi Ajayi", "Nobel Mendy" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jack Grealish": { "opponents": [ "Semi Ajayi", "Nobel Mendy" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Brennan Johnson": { "opponents": [ "Semi Ajayi", "Nobel Mendy" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "James Garner": { "opponents": [ "Regan Slater" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Regan Slater vs James Garner). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.66, Away: 0.94. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9575, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9429, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.118, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9401, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9908, "home_midfield_factor": 0.953, "away_midfield_factor": 1.042, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4753, "away_avg_quality": 0.6704, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1951, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.4763, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.3056, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.5357, "elite_count_gap": -2, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3998, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2199, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1279, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.6584, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8563 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.953, "result": 0.8161 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.01, "result": 0.8242 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 0.9478 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9133, "result": 0.8657 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9575, "result": 0.8289 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9401, "result": 0.7792 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.118, "result": 0.8972 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.8972, "result": 0.8972, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3998, "factor": 0.8721, "pre": 0.8972, "result": 0.7824 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7824 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.2184, "result": 1.0004 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 1.5517, "result": 1.1063 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.1063, "result": 1.106, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.106, "result": 1.106, "available": false }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "pre": 1.106, "result": 1.073 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.073 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9523, "input_total": 2.715, "result": 1.0218 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.0218, "result": 1.022, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.022 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.9411, "n_duels": 4, "duel_confidence": 0.67, "result": 1.109 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.042, "result": 1.1556 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.99, "result": 1.1441 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1441 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9332, "result": 1.0676 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9429, "result": 1.0067 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9908, "result": 0.9974 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.1774 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.1774, "result": 1.1774, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3998, "factor": 1.2199, "pre": 1.1774, "result": 1.4363 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.4363 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.187, "result": 1.623 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 1.5517, "result": 1.6093 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.6093, "result": 1.609, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.609, "result": 1.609, "available": false }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.105, "pre": 1.609, "result": 1.778 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.778 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9523, "input_total": 2.715, "result": 1.6932 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.6932, "result": 1.693, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.693 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.2184, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.187, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Hull City", "away_squad": "Everton", "home_goals_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_per90": 1.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.552, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.552, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.3998, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.105, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.97, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.106, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.609, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.073, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.778, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1063, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.6093, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.022, "final_away_lambda": 1.693 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 8, "opponent_position": 7, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9133, "attack_index": 1.016, "defense_concede_index": 0.785, "form_multiplier": 0.995, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.43, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.11, "team_ppg": 1.46, "opponent_ppg": 1.55 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 7, "opponent_position": 8, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9332, "attack_index": 0.903, "defense_concede_index": 0.927, "form_multiplier": 1.005, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.27, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.31, "team_ppg": 1.55, "opponent_ppg": 1.46 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Hull vs Everton. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 5-4-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.106, Away 1.609). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.022, Away 1.693 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 7, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Hull City", "away_squad": "Everton", "home_goals_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_per90": 1.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.552, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.552, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.022, "away_lambda": 1.693, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.106, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.609 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-10T13:35:29Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }