{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Barcelona", "away_team": "Getafe", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261011", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "3-0", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1042, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Barcelona", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.0588, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.1042 }, { "score": "4-0", "probability": 0.1027 }, { "score": "5-0", "probability": 0.081 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0792 }, { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0677 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0102, "0-1": 0.0066, "0-2": 0.0022, "1-0": 0.0401, "1-1": 0.0262, "1-2": 0.0085, "1-3": 0.0018, "2-0": 0.0792, "2-1": 0.0515, "2-2": 0.0167, "2-3": 0.0036, "2-4": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.1042, "3-1": 0.0677, "3-2": 0.022, "3-3": 0.0048, "3-4": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.1027, "4-1": 0.0668, "4-2": 0.0217, "4-3": 0.0047, "4-4": 0.0008, "5-0": 0.081, "5-1": 0.0527, "5-2": 0.0171, "5-3": 0.0037, "5-4": 0.0006, "6-0": 0.0533, "6-1": 0.0346, "6-2": 0.0113, "6-3": 0.0024, "7-0": 0.03, "7-1": 0.0195, "7-2": 0.0063, "7-3": 0.0014, "8-0": 0.0148, "8-1": 0.0096, "8-2": 0.0031, "8-3": 0.0007, "9-0": 0.0065, "9-1": 0.0042, "9-2": 0.0014 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.916, "draw": 0.0588, "away_win": 0.0252 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.8355, "under_2_5_goals": 0.1645, "btts_yes": 0.4687, "btts_no": 0.5313, "home_clean_sheet": 0.522, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0195 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.93, "MCR": 7.09, "ATR": 6.81, "GK": 6.96 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.65, "MCR": 6.83, "ATR": 6.83, "GK": 7.23 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Barcelona vs Getafe. Most likely scoreline: 3-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 7 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, Anthony Gordon", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs Mario Martín). Total antagonist xG — Home: 2.26, Away: 1.11. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.77, "home_lambda": 3.944, "away_lambda": 0.65, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.916, "draw": 0.0588, "away_win": 0.0252 }, "favorite": "Barcelona", "favorite_win_probability": 0.916, "fair_spread": 3.294, "fair_total": 4.594, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Barcelona", "estimate": 3.944, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Getafe", "estimate": 0.65, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.8355, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4687, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Barcelona", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.522, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Getafe", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0195, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Anthony Gordon (Barcelona)", "estimate": 0.8391, "probability": 0.5679, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Christantus Uche (Getafe)", "estimate": 0.1231, "probability": 0.1158, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)", "estimate": 0.4623, "probability": 0.3702, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ramón Terrats (Getafe)", "estimate": 0.1155, "probability": 0.1091, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 4.594, "expected_total_shots": 30, "expected_total_passes": 752, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.1, "possession_home_pct": 54.5, "possession_away_pct": 45.5, "notes": "Barcelona projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Barcelona", "favorite_win_probability": 0.916, "script": "Barcelona is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +3.29 goals and fair total 4.59.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 15 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Getafe must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Barcelona lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Barcelona chance creation leans on Anthony Gordon against Andrés García, Abdel Abqar in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Barcelona projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Barcelona: starters carry the main goal usage through Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, Anthony Gordon; bench watchlist: Gabriel Jesus, Roony Bardghji.", "Getafe: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Borja Mayoral, Ivan Azón, Nemanja Gudelj.", "Assist usage should flow through Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Barcelona tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 15 total first-half shots, and 2.30 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Getafe is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Barcelona.", "Getafe wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Barcelona": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Joan García": { "player_id": 930267, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 193, "market_value": 46000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1265, "rating": 6.9613, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 36, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 3.278, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8057, "shots_faced": 6.2, "expected_saves": 1.52, "high_pressure_saves": 0.52, "opponent_faced": "Christantus Uche, Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416346.0, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.6184 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.4648 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.558 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 24, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2351 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 30, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 15 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.2641 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 123, "combined_rank_score": 114.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 140.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.34, "sofascore_appearances": 30.0, "fifa_rank": 89.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9613, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Joan García", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Adrián de la Fuente", "ranking": 118 }, { "player_name": "Jaylan Hankins", "ranking": 119 }, { "player_name": "Marquinhos", "ranking": 120 }, { "player_name": "Jan Oblak", "ranking": 121 }, { "player_name": "Morgan Rogers", "ranking": 122 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bruno Henrique", "ranking": 124 }, { "player_name": "Jung Seung-bae", "ranking": 125 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Badolato", "ranking": 126 }, { "player_name": "João Neves", "ranking": 127 }, { "player_name": "Davron Merganov", "ranking": 128 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.625, "history_matches": 6, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 6, "data_confidence": 0.625, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0927, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 6 historical appearances across 3 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1158, "rating": 6.9613, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "touches": 33, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 3.0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 4, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:01:45.250339+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 135, "rows": 3738 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2408, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2047, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.174, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "save_contribution": 1.9305, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.1271, "sweeper_actions_p90": 2.1018, "possessionLostCtrl": 2.9305, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.8609, "accurateLongBalls": 2.396 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.6160292625427246, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0523 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0514 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0445 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9861, "items": [ { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.2616 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0935 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": -0.0701 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.051 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.0379 } ], "others": -0.0338, "total": 2.616, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.093963, "item_margins": [ { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.09167 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.034915 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": -0.027016 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.019703 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": 0.014404 } ], "others_margin": -0.012813 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.11581432074308395, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0515 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0478 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0455, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.0873 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0604 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0492 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0424 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": -0.0368 } ], "others": -0.0536, "total": -0.1158, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.045465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": 0.087349 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.060427 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.04922 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.042439 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": -0.036846 } ], "others_margin": -0.053643 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.961266040802002, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.075 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0478 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0409 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0878, "items": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": -0.0623 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0548 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.0547 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.049 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0431 } ], "others": -0.07, "total": 6.9613, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.087778, "item_margins": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": -0.062263 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.054782 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": 0.054661 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.048967 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.043058 } ], "others_margin": -0.070037 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0927, quality 0.809)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1265, "rating": 6.9613, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 36, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 3.278, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 46000000, "quality_factor": 0.8089, "boost_factor": 1.0927 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1265, "rating": 6.9613, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 36, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 3.278, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1265, "rating": 6.9613, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 36, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 3.278, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8057, "shots_faced": 7.7, "expected_saves": 1.89, "high_pressure_saves": 0.64, "opponent_faced": "Christantus Uche, Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Christantus Uche, Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 0.8057 } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.94 (squad xG sum 2.5838, xG scale 1.5265, xA scale 2.0186, team xA 2.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1265, "rating": 6.9613, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 36, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 3.278, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8057, "shots_faced": 6.2, "expected_saves": 1.52, "high_pressure_saves": 0.52, "opponent_faced": "Christantus Uche, Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.944, "squad_xg_sum": 2.5838, "squad_xa_sum": 1.27, "team_expected_assists": 2.5636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5265, "xa_scale": 2.0186, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 7.7, "after": 6.2 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 1.89, "after": 1.52 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.64, "after": 0.52 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1265, "rating": 6.9613, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 36, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 3.278, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8057, "shots_faced": 6.2, "expected_saves": 1.52, "high_pressure_saves": 0.52, "opponent_faced": "Christantus Uche, Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 123, "fifa_rank": 89.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1265, "rating": 6.9613, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 36, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 3.278, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8057, "shots_faced": 6.2, "expected_saves": 1.52, "high_pressure_saves": 0.52, "opponent_faced": "Christantus Uche, Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 3.8932, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.7684, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7684, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6925 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.6925, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6925, "runner_up": "Anthony Gordon", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6713 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Anthony Gordon", "weight": 0.6713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6713, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6528 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1265, "rating": 6.9613, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 36, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 3.278, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8057, "shots_faced": 6.2, "expected_saves": 1.52, "high_pressure_saves": 0.52, "opponent_faced": "Christantus Uche, Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 2.3091, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.3698, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3698, "runner_up": "Dani Olmo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3331 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Dani Olmo", "weight": 0.3331, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3331, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.299 } ] } } ] }, "Pau Cubarsí": { "player_id": 1402913, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 184, "market_value": 94000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.1275, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 108, "accurate_pass": 102, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 64, "accurate_own_half_passes": 62, "total_opp_half_passes": 44, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 121, "possession_lost": 7.5976, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.045, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 39, "total_progression": 163, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.704, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.044, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416349.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0145, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 97, "accurate_pass": 90, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": "16416346.0", "match_date": "2026-09-16 19:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Barcelona", "away_team": "Racing Club", "home_score_current": 7.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": "100", "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": "True", "team": "Barcelona", "opponent": "Racing Club", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416329.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 114, "accurate_pass": 109, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 55, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0642, "expected_assists": 0.023, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 110, "accurate_pass": 100, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3941, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 107, "accurate_pass": 102, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 57, "combined_rank_score": 69.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 62.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.65, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 76.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1275, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pau Cubarsí", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Matheus Frizzo", "ranking": 52 }, { "player_name": "Florian Wirtz", "ranking": 53 }, { "player_name": "Martín Zubimendi", "ranking": 54 }, { "player_name": "Luan Dias", "ranking": 55 }, { "player_name": "César Yanis", "ranking": 56 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Declan Rice", "ranking": 58 }, { "player_name": "Frenkie de Jong", "ranking": 59 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Paquetá", "ranking": 60 }, { "player_name": "Rúben Dias", "ranking": 61 }, { "player_name": "Luis Díaz", "ranking": 62 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.562, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.562, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.1173, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 5 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 7.1275, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 97, "accurate_pass": 91, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 57, "accurate_own_half_passes": 55, "total_opp_half_passes": 39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 108, "possession_lost": 6.8, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.02, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 35, "total_progression": 146, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:01:55.523250+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 402, "rows": 11400 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 8.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 4.1844, "defensive_actions": 2.5492, "wonTackle": 0.9055, "totalTackle_p90": 1.3539, "totalClearance_p90": 4.4483, "aerialWon": 3.4673 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.1708827018737793, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0903 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0858 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0447 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0364 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9034, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.1022 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0743 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0123 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0117 } ], "others": 0.0417, "total": 1.1709, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.101631, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.10716 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.071324 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.023128 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.011093 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.0104 } ], "others_margin": 0.036284 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.1633604764938354, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.1044 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0629 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.045 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0342 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3313, "items": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.057 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0512 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0318 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0491, "total": 1.1634, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.286166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.04376 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.041005 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.025658 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.025009 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.009387 } ], "others_margin": -0.04135 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.6586487889289856, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.1003 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0586 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0501 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0492 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0386 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8256, "items": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.1446 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0172 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0089 } ], "others": -0.0061, "total": 0.6586, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.191612, "item_margins": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.192601 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.024922 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.020404 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.015417 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.013361 } ], "others_margin": -0.009092 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.246329307556152, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.138 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0733 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.3876, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3327 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1382 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1003 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0935 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.056 } ], "others": 0.138, "total": 4.2463, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.220122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.093692 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.036467 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.025651 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.023351 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013734 } ], "others_margin": 0.033039 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 2.1026012897491455, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1155 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0659 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "importance": 0.0345 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0335 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0332 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.2696, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.4475 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1112 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0886 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.072 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0687 } ], "others": 0.045, "total": 2.1026, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.238719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.301928 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.06275 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.047329 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.036896 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.033968 } ], "others_margin": 0.021587 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.448542058467865, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.476, "items": [ { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0116, "total": 0.4485, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.476045, "item_margins": [ { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.016613 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.016137 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.01452 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.014519 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.01359 } ], "others_margin": -0.011579 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.1275177001953125, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0466 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0352 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7578, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1185 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0452 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0387 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0235 } ], "others": 0.1045, "total": 7.1275, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.757789, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.118496 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.045163 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.039288 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.038743 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.023503 } ], "others_margin": 0.104534 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1173, quality 0.891)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.1275, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 108, "accurate_pass": 102, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 64, "accurate_own_half_passes": 62, "total_opp_half_passes": 44, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 121, "possession_lost": 7.5976, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 39, "total_progression": 163, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 94000000, "quality_factor": 0.891, "boost_factor": 1.1173 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.1275, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 108, "accurate_pass": 102, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 64, "accurate_own_half_passes": 62, "total_opp_half_passes": 44, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 121, "possession_lost": 7.5976, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 39, "total_progression": 163, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.1275, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 108, "accurate_pass": 102, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 64, "accurate_own_half_passes": 62, "total_opp_half_passes": 44, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 121, "possession_lost": 7.5976, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 39, "total_progression": 163, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.704, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.94 (squad xG sum 2.5838, xG scale 1.5265, xA scale 2.0186, team xA 2.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.1275, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 108, "accurate_pass": 102, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 64, "accurate_own_half_passes": 62, "total_opp_half_passes": 44, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 121, "possession_lost": 7.5976, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.045, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 39, "total_progression": 163, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.704, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.944, "squad_xg_sum": 2.5838, "squad_xa_sum": 1.27, "team_expected_assists": 2.5636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5265, "xa_scale": 2.0186, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0223, "after": 0.045 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.1275, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 108, "accurate_pass": 102, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 64, "accurate_own_half_passes": 62, "total_opp_half_passes": 44, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 121, "possession_lost": 7.5976, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.045, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 39, "total_progression": 163, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.704, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 57, "fifa_rank": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.1275, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 108, "accurate_pass": 102, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 64, "accurate_own_half_passes": 62, "total_opp_half_passes": 44, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 121, "possession_lost": 7.5976, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.045, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 39, "total_progression": 163, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.704, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 3.8932, "weight_share": 0.0003, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.7684, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7684, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6925 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.6925, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6925, "runner_up": "Anthony Gordon", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6713 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Anthony Gordon", "weight": 0.6713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6713, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6528 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.1275, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 108, "accurate_pass": 102, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 64, "accurate_own_half_passes": 62, "total_opp_half_passes": 44, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 121, "possession_lost": 7.5976, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.045, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 39, "total_progression": 163, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.704, "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.044, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.044, "provider_weight": 0.036, "squad_weight_total": 2.3091, "weight_share": 0.0156, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.3698, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3698, "runner_up": "Dani Olmo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3331 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Dani Olmo", "weight": 0.3331, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3331, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.299 } ] } } ] }, "Jules Koundé": { "player_id": 827212, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 180, "market_value": 64000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8453, "minutes": 43, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 45, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 5.5413, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0448, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 78, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Christantus Uche", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0438, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416325.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 78, "accurate_pass": 75, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 66, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 540, "combined_rank_score": 301.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 444.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9033, "sofascore_appearances": 30.0, "fifa_rank": 159.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8453, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jules Koundé", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Evan Ndicka", "ranking": 535 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Lima", "ranking": 536 }, { "player_name": "Eder Aller", "ranking": 537 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Leão", "ranking": 538 }, { "player_name": "Mattia Zaccagni", "ranking": 539 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Rafa Romero", "ranking": 541 }, { "player_name": "Alisher Odilov", "ranking": 542 }, { "player_name": "Hyeok-chan Son", "ranking": 543 }, { "player_name": "Min-ho Yoon", "ranking": 544 }, { "player_name": "Akmal Muzaffarov", "ranking": 545 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.1083, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8453, "minutes": 43, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 41, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 54, "possession_lost": 5.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.02, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 70, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:01:55.523250+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 402, "rows": 11400 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 1.6075, "defensive_actions": 0.6276, "wonTackle": 0.3138, "totalTackle_p90": 0.463, "totalClearance_p90": 3.5705, "aerialWon": 0.7262 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.6811969876289368, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0903 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0858 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0447 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0364 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9034, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.1251 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0915 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0217 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0206, "total": 0.6812, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.101631, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.149033 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.125023 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.03111 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.028541 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.019037 } ], "others_margin": -0.029822 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.1242648363113403, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.1044 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0629 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.045 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0342 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3313, "items": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.1504 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.044 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0345 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0262 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0251 } ], "others": 0.023, "total": 1.1243, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.286166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.119864 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.037947 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.030793 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.024094 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.023093 } ], "others_margin": 0.02057 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.6993194222450256, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.1003 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0586 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0501 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0492 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0386 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8256, "items": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.1455 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0329 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0229 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0185 } ], "others": -0.0127, "total": 0.6993, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.191612, "item_margins": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.193862 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.049511 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.035557 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.033608 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.026274 } ], "others_margin": -0.018101 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.525810480117798, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.138 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0733 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.3876, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.7463 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.1941 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0881 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0639 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0527 } ], "others": 0.1779, "total": 2.5258, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.220122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.248868 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.076314 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.036651 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.027459 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.022697 } ], "others_margin": 0.073035 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.5315548777580261, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1155 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0659 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "importance": 0.0345 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0335 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0332 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.2696, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.637 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0702 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0223 } ], "others": -0.0084, "total": 0.5316, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.238719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.696653 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.11761 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.041916 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.041718 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.040461 } ], "others_margin": -0.015745 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4625, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.476, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0534 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0357 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0334 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0328, "total": 0.4625, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.476045, "item_margins": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.053414 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.035663 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.033402 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.016255 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.012666 } ], "others_margin": -0.032793 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.845254421234131, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0466 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0352 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7578, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0324 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0173 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.015 } ], "others": 0.0272, "total": 6.8453, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.757789, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.03236 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.020057 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.017312 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.015747 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.015028 } ], "others_margin": 0.027075 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1083, quality 0.861)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8453, "minutes": 43, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 45, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 5.5413, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 78, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 64000000, "quality_factor": 0.8608, "boost_factor": 1.1083 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8453, "minutes": 43, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 45, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 5.5413, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 78, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8453, "minutes": 43, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 45, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 5.5413, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 78, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Christantus Uche", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Christantus Uche", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.94 (squad xG sum 2.5838, xG scale 1.5265, xA scale 2.0186, team xA 2.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8453, "minutes": 43, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 45, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 5.5413, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0448, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 78, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Christantus Uche", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.944, "squad_xg_sum": 2.5838, "squad_xa_sum": 1.27, "team_expected_assists": 2.5636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5265, "xa_scale": 2.0186, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0222, "after": 0.0448 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8453, "minutes": 43, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 45, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 5.5413, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0448, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 78, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Christantus Uche", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 540, "fifa_rank": 159.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8453, "minutes": 43, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 45, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 5.5413, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0448, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 78, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Christantus Uche", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 3.8932, "weight_share": 0.0003, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.7684, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7684, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6925 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.6925, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6925, "runner_up": "Anthony Gordon", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6713 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Anthony Gordon", "weight": 0.6713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6713, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6528 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8453, "minutes": 43, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 45, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 5.5413, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0448, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 78, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Christantus Uche", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0438, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0438, "provider_weight": 0.0358, "squad_weight_total": 2.3091, "weight_share": 0.0155, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.3698, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3698, "runner_up": "Dani Olmo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3331 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Dani Olmo", "weight": 0.3331, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3331, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.299 } ] } } ] }, "Alejandro Balde": { "player_id": 997035, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 177, "market_value": 55000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8166, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 2.2039, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.2224, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 69, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Christantus Uche", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1994, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416346.0, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0954, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1817, "combined_rank_score": 965.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 700.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6963, "sofascore_appearances": 28.0, "fifa_rank": 1231.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8166, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alejandro Balde", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nail Omerović", "ranking": 1812 }, { "player_name": "Elhan Kastrati", "ranking": 1813 }, { "player_name": "Jae-hun Cho", "ranking": 1814 }, { "player_name": "Abulfayz Bobomurodov", "ranking": 1815 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Rego Mora", "ranking": 1816 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "José Luis Morales", "ranking": 1818 }, { "player_name": "Guido Rodríguez", "ranking": 1819 }, { "player_name": "Wesley Fofana", "ranking": 1820 }, { "player_name": "Marten de Roon", "ranking": 1821 }, { "player_name": "Florentino Luís", "ranking": 1822 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.102, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 1 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8166, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 2.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 62, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:01:55.523250+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 402, "rows": 11400 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 0.0, "defensive_actions": 2.0, "wonTackle": 1.0, "totalTackle_p90": 15.0, "totalClearance_p90": 0.0, "aerialWon": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.41734403371810913, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0903 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0858 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0447 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0364 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9034, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.2411 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.1513 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0765 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0098 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0059 } ], "others": -0.0211, "total": 0.4173, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.101631, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.31046 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.259328 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.162208 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.022401 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.013341 } ], "others_margin": -0.049277 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.3028570413589478, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.1044 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0629 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.045 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0342 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3313, "items": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.1986 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.1012 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0628 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0494 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0324 } ], "others": 0.0188, "total": 1.3029, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.286166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.139033 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.068418 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.044924 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.036808 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.024881 } ], "others_margin": 0.014392 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.779758632183075, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.1003 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0586 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0501 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0492 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0386 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8256, "items": [ { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0468 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0356 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0295 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0223 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0204 } ], "others": -0.0294, "total": 0.7798, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.191612, "item_margins": [ { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.055122 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.041611 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.035929 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.027238 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.024914 } ], "others_margin": -0.037064 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.0927964448928833, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.138 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0733 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.3876, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -1.2388 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.4531 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.2135 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.1029 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0587 } ], "others": -0.2278, "total": 1.0928, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.220122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.455228 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.236826 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.134599 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.071946 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.043484 } ], "others_margin": -0.189299 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.4513185918331146, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1155 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0659 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "importance": 0.0345 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0335 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0332 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.2696, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.6898 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0604 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0471 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0447 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0232 } ], "others": -0.0425, "total": 0.4513, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.238719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.783739 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.110044 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.095072 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.090503 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.04581 } ], "others_margin": -0.090138 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.42574283480644226, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.476, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0603 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.021 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0183 } ], "others": -0.026, "total": 0.4257, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.476045, "item_margins": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.06027 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.024685 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.021381 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.021002 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.018326 } ], "others_margin": -0.026056 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.816586971282959, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0466 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0352 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7578, "items": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0817 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0413 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0306 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0129 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": -0.0355, "total": 6.8166, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.757789, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.081693 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.041315 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.030621 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.012862 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010965 } ], "others_margin": -0.035486 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1020, quality 0.840)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8166, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 2.2039, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1102, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 69, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 55000000, "quality_factor": 0.8399, "boost_factor": 1.102 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8166, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 2.2039, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1102, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 69, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8166, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 2.2039, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1102, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 69, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Christantus Uche", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Christantus Uche", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.94 (squad xG sum 2.5838, xG scale 1.5265, xA scale 2.0186, team xA 2.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8166, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 2.2039, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.2224, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 69, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Christantus Uche", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.944, "squad_xg_sum": 2.5838, "squad_xa_sum": 1.27, "team_expected_assists": 2.5636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5265, "xa_scale": 2.0186, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1102, "after": 0.2224 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8166, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 2.2039, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.2224, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 69, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Christantus Uche", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1817, "fifa_rank": 1231.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8166, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 2.2039, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.2224, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 69, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Christantus Uche", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 3.8932, "weight_share": 0.0003, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.7684, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7684, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6925 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.6925, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6925, "runner_up": "Anthony Gordon", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6713 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Anthony Gordon", "weight": 0.6713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6713, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6528 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8166, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 2.2039, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.2224, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 69, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Christantus Uche", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1994, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1994, "provider_weight": 0.1779, "squad_weight_total": 2.3091, "weight_share": 0.0771, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.3698, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3698, "runner_up": "Dani Olmo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3331 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Dani Olmo", "weight": 0.3331, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3331, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.299 } ] } } ] }, "Lamine Yamal": { "player_id": 1402912, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 183, "market_value": 237000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.4623, "assist_rate": 0.1697, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.6147, "goal_rate": 0.5839, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 4, "rating": 7.124, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 45, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 45, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 35, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 84, "possession_lost": 20.7984, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 8, "won_contest": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 29, "total_progression": 155, "progressive_carries": 8, "shots_off_target": 3, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2705, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.604, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Mario Martín", "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4592, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.3702, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416349.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.2641, "expected_assists": 0.5755, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 44, "key_pass": 6, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346.0, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 1.6645, "expected_assists": 0.3084, "total_shots": 7, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 8.4, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.6035, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 30, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.9, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.1231, "expected_assists": 0.3021, "total_shots": 8, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 79, "accurate_pass": 66, "key_pass": 6, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.327, "expected_assists": 0.5343, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8933, "expected_assists": 0.7456, "total_shots": 7, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 45, "key_pass": 5, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2063, "expected_assists": 0.1498, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1, "combined_rank_score": 5.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 7.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.65, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 4.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.124, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking": 2 }, { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 3 }, { "player_name": "Mariano Díaz", "ranking": 4 }, { "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking": 5 }, { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.688, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.688, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.12, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 7 historical appearances across 8 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.2045, "assist_rate": 0.1515, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.283, "goal_rate": 0.4103, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "rating": 7.124, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 40, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 75, "possession_lost": 18.57, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 7, "won_contest": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 139, "progressive_carries": 7, "shots_off_target": 2 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:02:07.046807+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 550, "rows": 13779 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 9.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 8.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 8.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 10.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 5.5244, "expectedAssists": 0.3791, "creative_index": 1.8598, "creative_efficiency": 0.0832, "shotValueNormalized": 0.1526, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.5294 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 2.17209792137146, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.12 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0959 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0425 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9267, "items": [ { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.281 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.2887 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.1361 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0822 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0567 } ], "others": 0.4007, "total": 2.1721, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.076148, "item_margins": [ { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.264866 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.214351 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.08706 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.04912 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.032534 } ], "others_margin": 0.20391 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.20448991656303406, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.118 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0768 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0579 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0517 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0087 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0059 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0051 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0051 } ], "others": 0.0408, "total": 0.2045, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439192, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.465266 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.060657 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.039384 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.032865 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.031634 } ], "others_margin": 0.222151 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.15154485404491425, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0669 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0465 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0404 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0851, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0306 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0057 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0044 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0039 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0038 } ], "others": 0.018, "total": 0.1515, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.463441, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.307101 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.047704 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "margin": 0.035896 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.030206 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.028896 } ], "others_margin": 0.126766 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.28301936388015747, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.082 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0344 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1826, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0531 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0197 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0035, "total": 0.283, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.700309, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.255267 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.080146 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.041238 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "margin": 0.039044 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.034415 } ], "others_margin": -0.012041 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.4103231728076935, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0879 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0676 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0294 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1479, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0425 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0362 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0374 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.0262 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0257 } ], "others": 0.0944, "total": 0.4103, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.911166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.252838 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.17417 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.152606 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.094713 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.08488 } ], "others_margin": 0.261149 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7040778398513794, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1114 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.033 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3374, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1631 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0705 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.0339 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0332 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0286 } ], "others": 0.1038, "total": 0.7041, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.086396, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.394243 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.131711 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": 0.057621 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.056395 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.04883 } ], "others_margin": 0.159519 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.9329778398513793, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1236 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0751 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.0381, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 1.0186 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.3374 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.1024 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0775 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0734 } ], "others": 0.2856, "total": 2.933, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.038069, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 1.01863 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.337417 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.102366 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.0775 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.073436 } ], "others_margin": 0.285547 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.124049663543701, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0666 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0305 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8598, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0506 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0411 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0305 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0243 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0232 } ], "others": 0.0945, "total": 7.124, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.859756, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.050627 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.041093 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.030525 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.024323 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.023158 } ], "others_margin": 0.094567 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1200, quality 0.900)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.229, "assist_rate": 0.1697, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.317, "goal_rate": 0.4596, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "rating": 7.124, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 45, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 45, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 35, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 84, "possession_lost": 20.7984, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 8, "won_contest": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 29, "total_progression": 155, "progressive_carries": 8, "shots_off_target": 2 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 237000000, "quality_factor": 0.9, "boost_factor": 1.12 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.229, "assist_rate": 0.1697, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.317, "goal_rate": 0.4596, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "rating": 7.124, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 45, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 45, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 35, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 84, "possession_lost": 20.7984, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 8, "won_contest": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 29, "total_progression": 155, "progressive_carries": 8, "shots_off_target": 2 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.229, "assist_rate": 0.1697, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4027, "goal_rate": 0.5839, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 4, "rating": 7.124, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 45, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 45, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 35, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 84, "possession_lost": 20.7984, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 8, "won_contest": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 29, "total_progression": 155, "progressive_carries": 8, "shots_off_target": 3, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2705, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.604, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Mario Martín", "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "duel_win_rate": 0.604, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.2705, "skill_edge": 0.16, "height_edge": 0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.9, "defender_skill": 0.5444, "xg_override": 0.4027 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 3.285, "after": 4.1736 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 2.4964, "after": 3.1717 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7886, "after": 1.0019 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.4596, "after": 0.5839 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.317, "after": 0.4027 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.94 (squad xG sum 2.5838, xG scale 1.5265, xA scale 2.0186, team xA 2.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.4623, "assist_rate": 0.1697, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6147, "goal_rate": 0.5839, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 4, "rating": 7.124, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 45, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 45, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 35, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 84, "possession_lost": 20.7984, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 8, "won_contest": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 29, "total_progression": 155, "progressive_carries": 8, "shots_off_target": 3, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2705, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.604, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Mario Martín", "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.944, "squad_xg_sum": 2.5838, "squad_xa_sum": 1.27, "team_expected_assists": 2.5636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5265, "xa_scale": 2.0186, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.4027, "after": 0.6147 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.229, "after": 0.4623 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 90.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.4623, "assist_rate": 0.1697, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6147, "goal_rate": 0.5839, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 4, "rating": 7.124, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 45, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 45, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 35, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 84, "possession_lost": 20.7984, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 8, "won_contest": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 29, "total_progression": 155, "progressive_carries": 8, "shots_off_target": 3, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2705, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.604, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Mario Martín", "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1, "fifa_rank": 4.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 90.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.4623, "assist_rate": 0.1697, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6147, "goal_rate": 0.5839, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 4, "rating": 7.124, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 45, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 45, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 35, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 84, "possession_lost": 20.7984, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 8, "won_contest": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 29, "total_progression": 155, "progressive_carries": 8, "shots_off_target": 3, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2705, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.604, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Mario Martín", "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4592, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4592, "scorer_weight": 0.7684, "squad_weight_total": 3.8932, "weight_share": 0.1974, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.7684, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7684, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6925 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.6925, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6925, "runner_up": "Anthony Gordon", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6713 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Anthony Gordon", "weight": 0.6713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6713, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6528 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.4623, "assist_rate": 0.1697, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.6147, "goal_rate": 0.5839, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 4, "rating": 7.124, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 45, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 45, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 35, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 84, "possession_lost": 20.7984, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 8, "won_contest": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 29, "total_progression": 155, "progressive_carries": 8, "shots_off_target": 3, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2705, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.604, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Mario Martín", "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4592, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.3702, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.3702, "provider_weight": 0.3698, "squad_weight_total": 2.3091, "weight_share": 0.1602, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.3698, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3698, "runner_up": "Dani Olmo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3331 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Dani Olmo", "weight": 0.3331, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3331, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.299 } ] } } ] }, "Pedri": { "player_id": 992587, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 174, "market_value": 164000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.3084, "assist_rate": 0.1075, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2789, "goal_rate": 0.1661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.118, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 63, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 44, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 81, "possession_lost": 8.8026, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 88, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2175, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.568, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Mario Martín", "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2434, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2654, "finishing_factor": 0.9287, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416349.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1555, "expected_assists": 0.063, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 60, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346.0, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.4025, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1863, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 53, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.297, "expected_assists": 0.112, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 69, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0773, "expected_assists": 0.1121, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 68, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 8.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.4608, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 46, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1668, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 6, "combined_rank_score": 12.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 12.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.425, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 12.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.118, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking": 1 }, { "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking": 2 }, { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 3 }, { "player_name": "Mariano Díaz", "ranking": 4 }, { "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking": 5 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 7 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Fernandes", "ranking": 8 }, { "player_name": "Felix Horn Myhre", "ranking": 9 }, { "player_name": "Raphinha", "ranking": 10 }, { "player_name": "Vini Jr.", "ranking": 11 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.688, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.688, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.1199, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 7 historical appearances across 8 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1364, "assist_rate": 0.096, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.134, "goal_rate": 0.1218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.118, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 56, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 7.86, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 78, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:02:07.046807+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 550, "rows": 13779 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 46.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.9432, "expectedAssists": 0.2063, "creative_index": 1.0954, "creative_efficiency": 0.054, "shotValueNormalized": -0.0789, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.2681 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.5336172580718994, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.12 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0959 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0425 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9267, "items": [ { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.1572 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1838 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.1122 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0483 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.036 } ], "others": 0.0694, "total": 1.5336, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.076148, "item_margins": [ { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.156713 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.156637 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.084771 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.034438 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.024899 } ], "others_margin": 0.046318 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.13640664517879486, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.118 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0768 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0579 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0287 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0046 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0048 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0047 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0042 } ], "others": 0.0106, "total": 0.1364, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439192, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.284756 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.039156 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.039156 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.03698 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.032838 } ], "others_margin": 0.079866 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.0960024893283844, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0669 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0465 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0404 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0851, "items": [ { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0079 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0061 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0036 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0032 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0028 } ], "others": -0.0063, "total": 0.096, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.463441, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.088275 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.063599 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.035773 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.031633 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.027611 } ], "others_margin": -0.063564 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.13399638235569, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.082 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0344 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1826, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0294 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0095 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0059 } ], "others": -0.0171, "total": 0.134, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.700309, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.175396 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.07638 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.064502 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.041992 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.039949 } ], "others_margin": -0.120316 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.1217631995677948, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0879 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0676 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0294 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1479, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.006 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0051 } ], "others": 0.0164, "total": 0.1218, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.911166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.19258 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.097894 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": -0.056503 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.055372 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.047375 } ], "others_margin": 0.14447 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2726402282714844, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1114 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.033 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3374, "items": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0242 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0146, "total": 0.2726, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.086396, "item_margins": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.07448 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.055717 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.04946 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": -0.041998 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.038354 } ], "others_margin": -0.052116 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0821892023086548, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1236 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0751 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.0381, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0272 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.0232 } ], "others": -0.0382, "total": 1.0822, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.038069, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.028318 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.027533 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.027199 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.023926 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": 0.023177 } ], "others_margin": -0.03818 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.117971897125244, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0666 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0305 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8598, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0641 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0476 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0432 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0256 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0213 } ], "others": 0.0564, "total": 7.118, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.859756, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.064085 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.047634 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.043249 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.025557 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.021318 } ], "others_margin": 0.056373 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1199, quality 0.900)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1528, "assist_rate": 0.1075, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1501, "goal_rate": 0.1364, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.118, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 63, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 44, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 81, "possession_lost": 8.8026, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 88, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 164000000, "quality_factor": 0.8997, "boost_factor": 1.1199 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1528, "assist_rate": 0.1075, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1501, "goal_rate": 0.1364, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.118, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 63, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 44, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 81, "possession_lost": 8.8026, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 88, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1528, "assist_rate": 0.1075, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1827, "goal_rate": 0.1661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.118, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 63, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 44, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 81, "possession_lost": 8.8026, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 88, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2175, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.568, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Mario Martín", "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "duel_win_rate": 0.568, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.2175, "skill_edge": 0.16, "height_edge": -0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.8999, "defender_skill": 0.5444, "xg_override": 0.1827 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.212, "after": 1.4756 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9066, "after": 1.1038 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3053, "after": 0.3717 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1501, "after": 0.1827 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1364, "after": 0.1661 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.94 (squad xG sum 2.5838, xG scale 1.5265, xA scale 2.0186, team xA 2.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.3084, "assist_rate": 0.1075, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2789, "goal_rate": 0.1661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.118, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 63, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 44, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 81, "possession_lost": 8.8026, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 88, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2175, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.568, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Mario Martín", "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9287, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.944, "squad_xg_sum": 2.5838, "squad_xa_sum": 1.27, "team_expected_assists": 2.5636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5265, "xa_scale": 2.0186, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1827, "after": 0.2789 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1528, "after": 0.3084 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 90.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.3084, "assist_rate": 0.1075, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2789, "goal_rate": 0.1661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.118, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 63, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 44, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 81, "possession_lost": 8.8026, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 88, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2175, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.568, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Mario Martín", "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9287, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6, "fifa_rank": 12.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 90.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.3084, "assist_rate": 0.1075, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2789, "goal_rate": 0.1661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.118, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 63, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 44, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 81, "possession_lost": 8.8026, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 88, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2175, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.568, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Mario Martín", "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2434, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9287, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2434, "scorer_weight": 0.259, "squad_weight_total": 3.8932, "weight_share": 0.0665, "finishing_factor": 0.9287, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.7684, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7684, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6925 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.6925, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6925, "runner_up": "Anthony Gordon", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6713 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Anthony Gordon", "weight": 0.6713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6713, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6528 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.3084, "assist_rate": 0.1075, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2789, "goal_rate": 0.1661, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.118, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 63, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 44, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 81, "possession_lost": 8.8026, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 88, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2175, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.568, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Mario Martín", "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2434, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2654, "finishing_factor": 0.9287, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2654, "provider_weight": 0.2467, "squad_weight_total": 2.3091, "weight_share": 0.1068, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.3698, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3698, "runner_up": "Dani Olmo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3331 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Dani Olmo", "weight": 0.3331, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3331, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.299 } ] } } ] }, "Fermín López": { "player_id": 1153270, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 176, "market_value": 103000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.3123, "assist_rate": 0.1296, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3633, "goal_rate": 0.3735, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.006, "minutes": 74, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 29, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 13.9784, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín, Orel Mangala", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3046, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2682, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8774, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416349.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0861, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0124, "expected_assists": 0.1037, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 40, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 8.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.3788, "expected_assists": 0.4771, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 40, "key_pass": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3051, "expected_assists": 0.0748, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0318, "expected_assists": 0.0498, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 36, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0127, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 33, "combined_rank_score": 28.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 44.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.8, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 13.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.006, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Fermín López", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rafael Romo", "ranking": 28 }, { "player_name": "Michael Olise", "ranking": 29 }, { "player_name": "Marko Arnautović", "ranking": 30 }, { "player_name": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "ranking": 31 }, { "player_name": "Vitinha", "ranking": 32 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bianneider Tamayo", "ranking": 34 }, { "player_name": "Virgil van Dijk", "ranking": 35 }, { "player_name": "Remo Freuler", "ranking": 36 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Cunat Campos", "ranking": 37 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Cuñat", "ranking": 38 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.625, "history_matches": 6, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 6, "data_confidence": 0.625, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.1183, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 6 historical appearances across 8 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1384, "assist_rate": 0.1159, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2128, "goal_rate": 0.334, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.006, "minutes": 74, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 53, "possession_lost": 12.5, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 45, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:02:07.046807+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 550, "rows": 13779 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2408, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2047, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.174, "rating": 8.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 8.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.6395, "expectedAssists": 0.1458, "creative_index": 0.9205, "creative_efficiency": 0.0529, "shotValueNormalized": 0.1914, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.2725 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.3977676630020142, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.12 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0959 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0425 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9267, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1572 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0994 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0374 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0355 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0338 } ], "others": 0.1078, "total": 1.3978, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.076148, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.156718 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.087746 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.031143 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.028697 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.026551 } ], "others_margin": 0.080169 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.13837683200836182, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.118 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0768 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0579 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0061 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0043 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0037 } ], "others": 0.015, "total": 0.1384, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439192, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.159627 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.065981 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.054503 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.03617 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.030618 } ], "others_margin": 0.114519 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.11591999977827072, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0669 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0465 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0404 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0851, "items": [ { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0061 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.006 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.0062 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0032 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.0031 } ], "others": 0.0126, "total": 0.1159, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.463441, "item_margins": [ { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.068968 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.063683 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": 0.062026 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.031647 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.030208 } ], "others_margin": 0.11535 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.2128203958272934, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.082 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0344 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1826, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0086 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0055 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": 0.005 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0046 } ], "others": -0.0025, "total": 0.2128, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.700309, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.103709 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.041407 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.026583 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "margin": 0.023821 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.021717 } ], "others_margin": -0.011069 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.33395692706108093, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0879 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0676 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0294 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1479, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0408 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0445 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.018 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.0145 } ], "others": 0.047, "total": 0.334, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.911166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.24357 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.211863 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.087377 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.068329 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": 0.052 } ], "others_margin": 0.151284 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5272056460380554, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1114 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.033 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3374, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0484 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0402 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.0268 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.011 } ], "others": 0.0485, "total": 0.5272, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.086396, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.134131 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.098989 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": 0.060997 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.032461 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.023267 } ], "others_margin": 0.096387 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.6023057699203491, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1236 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0751 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.0381, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3189 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0652 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0451 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0308 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0276 } ], "others": 0.1318, "total": 1.6023, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.038069, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.318861 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.065239 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.045129 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.030846 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.027643 } ], "others_margin": 0.131805 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.006042003631592, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0666 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0305 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8598, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0534 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0383 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.037 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0129 } ], "others": -0.0165, "total": 7.006, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.859756, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.053392 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.038283 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.036953 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.02111 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.012948 } ], "others_margin": -0.0164 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1183, quality 0.894)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1547, "assist_rate": 0.1296, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.238, "goal_rate": 0.3735, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.006, "minutes": 74, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 29, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 13.9784, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 103000000, "quality_factor": 0.8942, "boost_factor": 1.1183 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1547, "assist_rate": 0.1296, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.238, "goal_rate": 0.3735, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.006, "minutes": 74, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 29, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 13.9784, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1547, "assist_rate": 0.1296, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.238, "goal_rate": 0.3735, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.006, "minutes": 74, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 29, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 13.9784, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín, Orel Mangala", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín, Orel Mangala", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.94 (squad xG sum 2.5838, xG scale 1.5265, xA scale 2.0186, team xA 2.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.3123, "assist_rate": 0.1296, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3633, "goal_rate": 0.3735, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.006, "minutes": 74, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 29, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 13.9784, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín, Orel Mangala", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8774 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.944, "squad_xg_sum": 2.5838, "squad_xa_sum": 1.27, "team_expected_assists": 2.5636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5265, "xa_scale": 2.0186, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.238, "after": 0.3633 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1547, "after": 0.3123 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 90.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.3123, "assist_rate": 0.1296, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3633, "goal_rate": 0.3735, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.006, "minutes": 74, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 29, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 13.9784, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín, Orel Mangala", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8774, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 33, "fifa_rank": 13.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 90.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.3123, "assist_rate": 0.1296, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3633, "goal_rate": 0.3735, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.006, "minutes": 74, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 29, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 13.9784, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín, Orel Mangala", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3046, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8774, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3046, "scorer_weight": 0.4541, "squad_weight_total": 3.8932, "weight_share": 0.1166, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.7684, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7684, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6925 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.6925, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6925, "runner_up": "Anthony Gordon", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6713 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Anthony Gordon", "weight": 0.6713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6713, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6528 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.3123, "assist_rate": 0.1296, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3633, "goal_rate": 0.3735, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.006, "minutes": 74, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 29, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 13.9784, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 51, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "opponent_faced": "Mario Martín, Orel Mangala", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3046, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2682, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8774, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2682, "provider_weight": 0.274, "squad_weight_total": 2.3091, "weight_share": 0.1187, "creation_factor": 0.8774, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.3698, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3698, "runner_up": "Dani Olmo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3331 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Dani Olmo", "weight": 0.3331, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3331, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.299 } ] } } ] }, "Raphinha": { "player_id": 831005, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 176, "market_value": 63000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.266, "assist_rate": 0.117, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.554, "goal_rate": 0.5434, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "rating": 7.0565, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.7063, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 2.7076, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 62, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2811, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 3.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.611, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Francho Serrano", "opponent_faced": "Francho Serrano", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4254, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2336, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9186, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416349.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 3.0, "goals": 3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8306, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346.0, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 3.0, "goals": 3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 2.3796, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.232, "expected_assists": 0.5508, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2971, "expected_assists": 0.0868, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 9.5, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2998, "expected_assists": 0.3009, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7976, "expected_assists": 0.1329, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 9.9, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 2.0042, "expected_assists": 0.3631, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 10, "combined_rank_score": 17.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 2.0, "sofascore_rating": 9.1, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 32.0, "fifa_overall": 88.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0565, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Raphinha", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking": 5 }, { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 }, { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 7 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Fernandes", "ranking": 8 }, { "player_name": "Felix Horn Myhre", "ranking": 9 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Vini Jr.", "ranking": 11 }, { "player_name": "Nico López", "ranking": 12 }, { "player_name": "Harry Kane", "ranking": 13 }, { "player_name": "Adrián", "ranking": 14 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel", "ranking": 15 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.688, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.688, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.1077, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 7 historical appearances across 8 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.119, "assist_rate": 0.1056, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2557, "goal_rate": 0.383, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.0565, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 7.86, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 1.25, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:02:07.046807+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 550, "rows": 13779 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 10.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 10.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 9.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 9.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 3.7395, "expectedAssists": 0.1882, "creative_index": 0.7894, "creative_efficiency": 0.0717, "shotValueNormalized": 0.5309, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.4894 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.3997834920883179, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.12 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0959 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0425 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9267, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1223 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.08 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0772 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0458 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0453 } ], "others": 0.1025, "total": 1.3998, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.076148, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.123997 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.073484 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.066163 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.037304 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.035543 } ], "others_margin": 0.075973 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.1190323457121849, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.118 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0768 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0579 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0249 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0052 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.004 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.004 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0041 } ], "others": -0.0, "total": 0.119, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439192, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.251133 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.047896 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.036767 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.035285 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.035088 } ], "others_margin": 0.000454 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.10560774803161621, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0669 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0465 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0404 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0851, "items": [ { "name": "cross_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0051 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0058 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.0033 } ], "others": 0.007, "total": 0.1056, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.463441, "item_margins": [ { "name": "cross_accuracy", "margin": -0.074579 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.062737 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": 0.062501 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.062275 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.034365 } ], "others_margin": 0.06812 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.2557397484779358, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.082 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0344 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1826, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0478 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0279 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0077 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": 0.0068 } ], "others": -0.012, "total": 0.2557, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.700309, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.232327 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.114131 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.039059 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "margin": -0.029271 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "margin": 0.025927 } ], "others_margin": -0.045458 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.38297343254089355, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0879 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0676 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0294 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1479, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0888 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0727 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.0173 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0142 } ], "others": 0.0582, "total": 0.383, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.911166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.470413 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.267817 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.054402 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.050537 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.044601 } ], "others_margin": 0.164679 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7559779286384583, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1114 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.033 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3374, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1974 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0726 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.0295 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0293 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0303 } ], "others": 0.0595, "total": 0.756, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.086396, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.460653 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.127283 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": 0.047474 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.045027 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.044399 } ], "others_margin": 0.081817 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.9675779286384583, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1236 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0751 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.0381, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.743 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.2723 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0415 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.0374 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.029 } ], "others": -0.1108, "total": 1.9675, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.038069, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.742952 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.27233 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.041516 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": 0.037389 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.028962 } ], "others_margin": -0.11065 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.056512355804443, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0666 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0305 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8598, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1072 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0439 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0424 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0417 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0304 } ], "others": -0.0081, "total": 7.0565, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.859756, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.107213 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.043936 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.042434 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.041738 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.030413 } ], "others_margin": -0.00815 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1077, quality 0.859)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1318, "assist_rate": 0.117, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2833, "goal_rate": 0.4242, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.0565, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.7063, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 1.3846, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 62, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 63000000, "quality_factor": 0.8589, "boost_factor": 1.1077 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1318, "assist_rate": 0.117, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2833, "goal_rate": 0.4242, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.0565, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.7063, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 1.3846, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 62, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1318, "assist_rate": 0.117, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3629, "goal_rate": 0.5434, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "rating": 7.0565, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.7063, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 1.7738, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 62, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2811, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 3.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.611, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Francho Serrano", "opponent_faced": "Francho Serrano", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Francho Serrano", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "duel_win_rate": 0.611, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.2811, "skill_edge": 0.1952, "height_edge": -0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.889, "defender_skill": 0.4551, "xg_override": 0.3629 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.1795, "after": 2.7922 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 1.3846, "after": 1.7738 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3421, "after": 1.7194 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8374, "after": 1.0728 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.4242, "after": 0.5434 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2833, "after": 0.3629 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.94 (squad xG sum 2.5838, xG scale 1.5265, xA scale 2.0186, team xA 2.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.266, "assist_rate": 0.117, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.554, "goal_rate": 0.5434, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "rating": 7.0565, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.7063, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 2.7076, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 62, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2811, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 3.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.611, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Francho Serrano", "opponent_faced": "Francho Serrano", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9186 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.944, "squad_xg_sum": 2.5838, "squad_xa_sum": 1.27, "team_expected_assists": 2.5636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5265, "xa_scale": 2.0186, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.3629, "after": 0.554 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1318, "after": 0.266 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 88.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.266, "assist_rate": 0.117, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.554, "goal_rate": 0.5434, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "rating": 7.0565, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.7063, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 2.7076, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 62, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2811, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 3.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.611, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Francho Serrano", "opponent_faced": "Francho Serrano", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9186, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 10, "fifa_rank": 32.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 88.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.266, "assist_rate": 0.117, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.554, "goal_rate": 0.5434, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "rating": 7.0565, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.7063, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 2.7076, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 62, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2811, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 3.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.611, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Francho Serrano", "opponent_faced": "Francho Serrano", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4254, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9186, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4254, "scorer_weight": 0.6925, "squad_weight_total": 3.8932, "weight_share": 0.1779, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.7684, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7684, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6925 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.6925, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6925, "runner_up": "Anthony Gordon", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6713 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Anthony Gordon", "weight": 0.6713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6713, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6528 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.266, "assist_rate": 0.117, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.554, "goal_rate": 0.5434, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "rating": 7.0565, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.7063, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 2.7076, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 62, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2811, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 3.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.611, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Francho Serrano", "opponent_faced": "Francho Serrano", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4254, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2336, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9186, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2336, "provider_weight": 0.2443, "squad_weight_total": 2.3091, "weight_share": 0.1058, "creation_factor": 0.9186, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.3698, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3698, "runner_up": "Dani Olmo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3331 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Dani Olmo", "weight": 0.3331, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3331, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.299 } ] } } ] }, "Dani Olmo": { "player_id": 789071, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 179, "market_value": 58000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.4164, "assist_rate": 0.1424, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3518, "goal_rate": 0.1347, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.1699, "minutes": 37, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 5.5218, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2828, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 3.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.612, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ramón Terrats", "opponent_faced": "Ramón Terrats", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2966, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.3406, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416349.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0865, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346.0, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.261, "expected_assists": 0.6775, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 60, "key_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0348, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.1952, "expected_assists": 0.4391, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0755, "expected_assists": 0.5023, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0193, "expected_assists": 0.2054, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1185, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 426, "combined_rank_score": 261.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 292.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.05, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 230.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1699, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dani Olmo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ismoilbek Usmonxo'jayev", "ranking": 421 }, { "player_name": "Seok-joo Yoon", "ranking": 422 }, { "player_name": "Harry Wilson", "ranking": 423 }, { "player_name": "Christos Tzolis", "ranking": 424 }, { "player_name": "Nordi Mukiele", "ranking": 425 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Piotr Zieliński", "ranking": 427 }, { "player_name": "Anvar Gofurov", "ranking": 428 }, { "player_name": "Ibrokhimkhalil Yuldoshev", "ranking": 429 }, { "player_name": "Iliman Ndiaye", "ranking": 430 }, { "player_name": "Lisandro Martínez", "ranking": 431 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.688, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.688, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.1044, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 7 historical appearances across 8 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1868, "assist_rate": 0.1289, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1627, "goal_rate": 0.0951, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.1699, "minutes": 37, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 26, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 37, "possession_lost": 5.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:02:07.046807+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 550, "rows": 13779 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 8.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.4998, "expectedAssists": 0.2759, "creative_index": 0.9441, "creative_efficiency": 0.1052, "shotValueNormalized": -0.1853, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.1636 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.5599793195724487, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.12 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0959 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0425 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9267, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1748 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.1153 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0912 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0633 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0491 } ], "others": 0.1396, "total": 1.56, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.076148, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.172815 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.099522 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.072299 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.047291 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.03517 } ], "others_margin": 0.093723 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.18683598935604095, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.118 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0768 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0579 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0572 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0068 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0061 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0061 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0061 } ], "others": 0.0173, "total": 0.1868, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439192, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.50452 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.046285 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.039371 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.038278 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.036871 } ], "others_margin": 0.096343 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.12892116606235504, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0669 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0465 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0404 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0851, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0095 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0053 } ], "others": 0.0077, "total": 0.1289, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.463441, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.116215 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.094953 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.050221 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.047969 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.044493 } ], "others_margin": 0.061037 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1626749187707901, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.082 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0344 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1826, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0069 } ], "others": -0.0311, "total": 0.1627, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.700309, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.074183 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.06855 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.060086 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "margin": -0.059978 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.036014 } ], "others_margin": -0.174376 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.0950881615281105, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0879 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0676 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0294 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1479, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0272 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0243 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0057 } ], "others": -0.0122, "total": 0.0951, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.911166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.203576 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.183596 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "margin": -0.163907 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": -0.086073 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.052034 } ], "others_margin": -0.11979 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.27547767758369446, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1114 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.033 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3374, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0317 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0274 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0178, "total": 0.2755, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.086396, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.089921 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": -0.077151 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.069031 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "margin": -0.049685 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.033693 } ], "others_margin": -0.063215 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1365776775836944, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1236 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0751 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.0381, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.248 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0506 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0462 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0395 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0353 } ], "others": -0.0569, "total": 1.1366, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.038069, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.248029 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.050595 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": -0.046156 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.039529 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.035274 } ], "others_margin": -0.057043 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.169906139373779, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0666 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0305 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8598, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1559 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0506 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0395 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.031 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0281 } ], "others": 0.005, "total": 7.1699, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.859756, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.15594 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.050575 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.039532 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.030982 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.02814 } ], "others_margin": 0.004981 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1044, quality 0.848)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.2063, "assist_rate": 0.1424, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1797, "goal_rate": 0.105, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.1699, "minutes": 37, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 5.5218, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 58000000, "quality_factor": 0.8478, "boost_factor": 1.1044 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.2063, "assist_rate": 0.1424, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1797, "goal_rate": 0.105, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.1699, "minutes": 37, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 5.5218, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.2063, "assist_rate": 0.1424, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2305, "goal_rate": 0.1347, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.1699, "minutes": 37, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 5.5218, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2828, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 3.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.612, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ramón Terrats", "opponent_faced": "Ramón Terrats", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ramón Terrats", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "duel_win_rate": 0.612, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.2828, "skill_edge": 0.1924, "height_edge": 0.0, "attacker_skill": 0.8844, "defender_skill": 0.4569, "xg_override": 0.2305 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2552, "after": 1.6102 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.951, "after": 1.2199 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3042, "after": 0.3902 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1797, "after": 0.2305 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.105, "after": 0.1347 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.94 (squad xG sum 2.5838, xG scale 1.5265, xA scale 2.0186, team xA 2.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.4164, "assist_rate": 0.1424, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3518, "goal_rate": 0.1347, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.1699, "minutes": 37, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 5.5218, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2828, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 3.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.612, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ramón Terrats", "opponent_faced": "Ramón Terrats", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.944, "squad_xg_sum": 2.5838, "squad_xa_sum": 1.27, "team_expected_assists": 2.5636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5265, "xa_scale": 2.0186, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2305, "after": 0.3518 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.2063, "after": 0.4164 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.4164, "assist_rate": 0.1424, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3518, "goal_rate": 0.1347, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.1699, "minutes": 37, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 5.5218, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2828, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 3.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.612, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ramón Terrats", "opponent_faced": "Ramón Terrats", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 426, "fifa_rank": 230.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.4164, "assist_rate": 0.1424, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3518, "goal_rate": 0.1347, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.1699, "minutes": 37, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 5.5218, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2828, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 3.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.612, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ramón Terrats", "opponent_faced": "Ramón Terrats", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2966, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2966, "scorer_weight": 0.2814, "squad_weight_total": 3.8932, "weight_share": 0.0723, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.7684, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7684, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6925 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.6925, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6925, "runner_up": "Anthony Gordon", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6713 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Anthony Gordon", "weight": 0.6713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6713, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6528 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.4164, "assist_rate": 0.1424, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3518, "goal_rate": 0.1347, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.1699, "minutes": 37, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 5.5218, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2828, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 3.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.612, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ramón Terrats", "opponent_faced": "Ramón Terrats", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2966, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.3406, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.3406, "provider_weight": 0.3331, "squad_weight_total": 2.3091, "weight_share": 0.1443, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.3698, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3698, "runner_up": "Dani Olmo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3331 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Dani Olmo", "weight": 0.3331, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3331, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.299 } ] } } ] }, "Anthony Gordon": { "player_id": 914902, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 183, "market_value": 82000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.8391, "goal_rate": 0.2496, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.1986, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 37, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.7471, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 77, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2519, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.371, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "opponent_faced": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.5679, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1801, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416349.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9081, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.5656, "expected_assists": 0.129, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2531, "expected_assists": 0.1888, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3171, "expected_assists": 0.2526, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.0769, "expected_assists": 0.3274, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 395, "combined_rank_score": 252.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 91.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.5, "sofascore_appearances": 12.0, "fifa_rank": 413.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7507, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Anthony Gordon", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Oybek Bozorov", "ranking": 390 }, { "player_name": "Marlon Freitas", "ranking": 391 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Paulista", "ranking": 392 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Rochet", "ranking": 393 }, { "player_name": "João Palhinha", "ranking": 394 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Giorgi Jgerenaia", "ranking": 396 }, { "player_name": "Stipe Perica", "ranking": 397 }, { "player_name": "Nurillo Tukhtasinov", "ranking": 398 }, { "player_name": "Min Ji-Hoon", "ranking": 399 }, { "player_name": "Avazbek Ulmasaliyev", "ranking": 400 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.625, "history_matches": 6, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 6, "data_confidence": 0.625, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.1151, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 6 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3938, "goal_rate": 0.1788, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0882, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 33, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.67, "assists": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 69, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:02:15.441175+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 325, "rows": 6303 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2408, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2047, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.174, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 7.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.5767, "totalShots": 2.0204, "minutesPlayed": 69.331, "shotValueNormalized": -0.2178, "accuratePass": 19.845, "expectedAssists": 0.1271 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.39378514885902405, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0826 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0724 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0352 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3626, "items": [ { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0774 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0153 } ], "others": -0.081, "total": 0.3938, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.014464, "item_margins": [ { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.193429 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.04226 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": 0.034491 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.033388 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.03284 } ], "others_margin": -0.187117 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.1787935048341751, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1258 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0323 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2866, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0478 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0077 } ], "others": -0.0174, "total": 0.1788, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.249595, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.18235 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.102754 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": -0.070886 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.063144 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.040207 } ], "others_margin": -0.093003 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5853423476219177, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1486 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "importance": 0.0618 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5888, "items": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.1171 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0557 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.0458 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0179 } ], "others": 0.0191, "total": 0.5853, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.52966, "item_margins": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.221663 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.111541 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": 0.083292 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.04446 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.032047 } ], "others_margin": 0.033346 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.0511467456817627, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.1122 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0872 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0825 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0566 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.4352, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.2351 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1673 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.1188 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0618 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0365 } ], "others": 0.0694, "total": 2.0511, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.435195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.23505 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.167333 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": 0.118785 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.061823 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.0365 } ], "others_margin": 0.069461 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08823380619287491, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1197 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0571 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0369 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.06, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0238 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0075 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0049 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0051 } ], "others": -0.0051, "total": 0.0882, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.812623, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.334128 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "margin": -0.100377 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.094414 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.057361 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.056074 } ], "others_margin": -0.05674 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9999380707740784, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1105 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0444 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0409 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6782, "items": [ { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.1511 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0549 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.051 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0482 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0415 } ], "others": 0.058, "total": 0.9999, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.388283, "item_margins": [ { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.201093 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.064159 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.056111 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.050273 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.043107 } ], "others_margin": 0.059693 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.750709056854248, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0724 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0438 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.815, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0504 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0311 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0175, "total": 6.7507, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.814961, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.050445 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.031065 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.02898 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.011079 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009594 } ], "others_margin": -0.017378 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1151, quality 0.884)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4391, "goal_rate": 0.1994, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.0984, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 37, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.7471, "assists": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 77, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 2 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 82000000, "quality_factor": 0.8837, "boost_factor": 1.1151 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4391, "goal_rate": 0.1994, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.0984, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 37, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.7471, "assists": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 77, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 2 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5497, "goal_rate": 0.2496, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.0984, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 37, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.7471, "assists": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 77, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2519, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.371, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "opponent_faced": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.371, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.2519, "skill_edge": 0.1813, "height_edge": -0.01, "attacker_skill": 0.8837, "defender_skill": 0.4807, "xg_override": 0.5497 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.2873, "after": 2.8635 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.6345, "after": 2.0462 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6527, "after": 0.8171 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.4391, "after": 0.5497 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1994, "after": 0.2496 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.94 (squad xG sum 2.5838, xG scale 1.5265, xA scale 2.0186, team xA 2.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.8391, "goal_rate": 0.2496, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.1986, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 37, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.7471, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 77, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2519, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.371, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "opponent_faced": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.944, "squad_xg_sum": 2.5838, "squad_xa_sum": 1.27, "team_expected_assists": 2.5636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5265, "xa_scale": 2.0186, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.5497, "after": 0.8391 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0984, "after": 0.1986 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.8391, "goal_rate": 0.2496, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.1986, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 37, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.7471, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 77, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2519, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.371, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "opponent_faced": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 395, "fifa_rank": 413.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.8391, "goal_rate": 0.2496, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.1986, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 37, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.7471, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 77, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2519, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.371, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "opponent_faced": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.5679, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.5679, "scorer_weight": 0.6713, "squad_weight_total": 3.8932, "weight_share": 0.1724, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.7684, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7684, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6925 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.6925, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6925, "runner_up": "Anthony Gordon", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6713 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Anthony Gordon", "weight": 0.6713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6713, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6528 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.8391, "goal_rate": 0.2496, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.1986, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 66, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 37, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.7471, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 77, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2519, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.371, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "opponent_faced": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.5679, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1801, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1801, "provider_weight": 0.2482, "squad_weight_total": 2.3091, "weight_share": 0.1075, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.3698, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3698, "runner_up": "Dani Olmo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3331 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Dani Olmo", "weight": 0.3331, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3331, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.299 } ] } } ] }, "Karim Adeyemi": { "player_id": 940054, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 180, "market_value": 41000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.816, "goal_rate": 0.2697, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.2392, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8759, "minutes": 35, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 6.1998, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3149, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1696, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.315, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "opponent_faced": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.5578, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2127, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416349.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3701, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346.0, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 1.8305, "expected_assists": 0.5412, "total_shots": 8, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 7, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.648, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3099, "expected_assists": 0.0195, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5525, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5198, "expected_assists": 0.051, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 927, "combined_rank_score": 430.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 416.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8759, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Karim Adeyemi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Joaquín Montecinos", "ranking": 922 }, { "player_name": "Sang-jun Lee", "ranking": 923 }, { "player_name": "Ju-an You", "ranking": 924 }, { "player_name": "Julián Brea", "ranking": 925 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Zalazar", "ranking": 926 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Marlon Maranhão", "ranking": 928 }, { "player_name": "Islom Kenzhaboev", "ranking": 929 }, { "player_name": "Isco", "ranking": 930 }, { "player_name": "Karim Benzema", "ranking": 931 }, { "player_name": "Julen Agirrezabala", "ranking": 932 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.688, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.688, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0858, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 7 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.421, "goal_rate": 0.2124, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1092, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8759, "minutes": 35, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 25, "possession_lost": 5.71, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.29, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 52, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:02:15.441175+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 325, "rows": 6303 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 7.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 1.0239, "totalShots": 2.6566, "minutesPlayed": 35.1145, "shotValueNormalized": -0.2531, "accuratePass": 12.9023, "expectedAssists": 0.1178 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.4209805130958557, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0826 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0724 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0352 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3626, "items": [ { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.101 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0421 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0413 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.0165 } ], "others": -0.0432, "total": 0.421, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.014464, "item_margins": [ { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.245732 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.086856 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.085223 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.036608 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": 0.036219 } ], "others_margin": -0.097681 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.21237146854400635, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1258 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0323 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2866, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0577 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.054 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0418 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0091, "total": 0.2124, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.249595, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.183484 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.17044 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.155363 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.061719 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": -0.053076 } ], "others_margin": -0.042709 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7431972622871399, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1486 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "importance": 0.0618 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5888, "items": [ { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0967 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0886 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0807 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0342 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.032 } ], "others": -0.0164, "total": 0.7432, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.52966, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.152042 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.121585 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.11009 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.048173 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": 0.043004 } ], "others_margin": -0.021848 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.9388972622871399, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.1122 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0872 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0825 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0566 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.4352, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3597 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.1602 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.11 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.1058 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0933 } ], "others": -0.0049, "total": 1.9389, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.435195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.359665 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.160238 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": 0.109967 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.105815 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.093259 } ], "others_margin": -0.004766 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.10915831476449966, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1197 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0571 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0369 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.06, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0049 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "contribution": 0.0037 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0034 } ], "others": 0.0049, "total": 0.1092, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.812623, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.368168 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.062295 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.051383 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "margin": 0.036924 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.032803 } ], "others_margin": 0.046095 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7518451809883118, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1105 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0444 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0409 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6782, "items": [ { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.1994 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.085 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0748 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0528 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0425 } ], "others": 0.0179, "total": 0.7518, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.388283, "item_margins": [ { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.3481 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.163384 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.124564 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.07938 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.059722 } ], "others_margin": 0.024108 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.875942230224609, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0724 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0438 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.815, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0477 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0431 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0298 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0284 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0237 } ], "others": 0.0432, "total": 6.8759, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.814961, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.047676 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.043093 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.029829 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.028411 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.023725 } ], "others_margin": 0.043256 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0858, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4571, "goal_rate": 0.2306, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1185, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8759, "minutes": 35, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 6.1998, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3149, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.0858 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4571, "goal_rate": 0.2306, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1185, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8759, "minutes": 35, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 6.1998, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3149, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5346, "goal_rate": 0.2697, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.1185, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8759, "minutes": 35, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 6.1998, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3149, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1696, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.315, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "opponent_faced": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.315, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.1696, "skill_edge": 0.1374, "height_edge": -0.022, "attacker_skill": 0.7859, "defender_skill": 0.4807, "xg_override": 0.5346 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.1053, "after": 2.4624 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.2983, "after": 1.5185 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.807, "after": 0.9439 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.4571, "after": 0.5346 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2306, "after": 0.2697 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.94 (squad xG sum 2.5838, xG scale 1.5265, xA scale 2.0186, team xA 2.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.816, "goal_rate": 0.2697, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.2392, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8759, "minutes": 35, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 6.1998, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3149, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1696, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.315, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "opponent_faced": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.944, "squad_xg_sum": 2.5838, "squad_xa_sum": 1.27, "team_expected_assists": 2.5636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5265, "xa_scale": 2.0186, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.5346, "after": 0.816 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1185, "after": 0.2392 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.816, "goal_rate": 0.2697, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.2392, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8759, "minutes": 35, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 6.1998, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3149, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1696, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.315, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "opponent_faced": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 927, "fifa_rank": 416.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.816, "goal_rate": 0.2697, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.2392, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8759, "minutes": 35, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 6.1998, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3149, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1696, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.315, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "opponent_faced": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.5578, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.5578, "scorer_weight": 0.6528, "squad_weight_total": 3.8932, "weight_share": 0.1677, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.7684, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7684, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6925 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.6925, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6925, "runner_up": "Anthony Gordon", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6713 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Anthony Gordon", "weight": 0.6713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6713, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6528 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.816, "goal_rate": 0.2697, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.2392, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8759, "minutes": 35, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 6.1998, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3149, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 56, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1696, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.315, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "opponent_faced": "Andrés García, Abdel Abqar", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.5578, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2127, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2127, "provider_weight": 0.299, "squad_weight_total": 2.3091, "weight_share": 0.1295, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.3698, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3698, "runner_up": "Dani Olmo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3331 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Dani Olmo", "weight": 0.3331, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3331, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.299 } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Dominik Livaković": { "player_id": 190419, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 40, "height": 186, "market_value": 4099999, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": -0.0081, "rating": 6.8956, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 1, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.146, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.111, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.45, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416349.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.1939 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2016, "combined_rank_score": 769.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 274.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0714, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 1264.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8956, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dominik Livaković", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ayoub El Kaabi", "ranking": 2011 }, { "player_name": "Viktor Tsygankov", "ranking": 2012 }, { "player_name": "Brennan Johnson", "ranking": 2013 }, { "player_name": "Dani Vivian", "ranking": 2014 }, { "player_name": "Joaquín Larrivey", "ranking": 2015 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alexander Nübel", "ranking": 2017 }, { "player_name": "Domingos Duarte", "ranking": 2018 }, { "player_name": "Davide Frattesi", "ranking": 2019 }, { "player_name": "Sebastian Szymański", "ranking": 2020 }, { "player_name": "Ibrokhim Ibrokhimov", "ranking": 2021 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.446242177473513, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.11119282624879602, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9853, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (1 historical appearances) to 4.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.11)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1672, "rating": 6.8956, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "touches": 29, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 3.0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 4, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:01:45.250339+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 135, "rows": 3738 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "save_contribution": 1.8061, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.09, "sweeper_actions_p90": 2.0, "possessionLostCtrl": 3.0, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 2.0, "accurateLongBalls": 2.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.5752038955688477, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0523 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0514 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0445 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9861, "items": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": -0.1989 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0841 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0699 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0555 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0447 } ], "others": -0.0688, "total": 2.5752, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.093963, "item_margins": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": -0.068939 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.03064 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.026215 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.020872 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.01676 } ], "others_margin": -0.026352 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.16723893582820892, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0515 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0478 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0455, "items": [ { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0656 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0616 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.0611 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": -0.0454 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0366 } ], "others": 0.0264, "total": -0.1672, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.045465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.065587 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.061624 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": 0.061081 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": -0.045356 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.03662 } ], "others_margin": 0.026332 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8956146240234375, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.075 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0478 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0409 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0878, "items": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": -0.08 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.0536 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0465 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0457 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0451 } ], "others": -0.0285, "total": 6.8956, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.087778, "item_margins": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": -0.079967 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": 0.05362 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.046463 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.045745 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.045094 } ], "others_margin": -0.028515 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9853, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1648, "rating": 6.8956, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "touches": 29, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 2.956, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4099999, "quality_factor": 0.4511, "boost_factor": 0.9853 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": -0.0081, "rating": 6.8956, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 1, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.146, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.111, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.45 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.45, "appearance_probability": 0.111 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": -0.0081, "rating": 6.8956, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 1, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.146, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.111, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.45 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": -0.0081, "rating": 6.8956, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 1, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.146, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.111, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.45, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2016, "fifa_rank": 1264.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Eric García": { "player_id": 876214, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 182, "market_value": 39000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.831, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 1.704, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.36, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.91, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416349.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0428, "expected_assists": 0.0678, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 69, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346.0, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0788, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 88, "accurate_pass": 79, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0351, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 103, "accurate_pass": 93, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 6, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 32, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0721, "expected_assists": 0.1814, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 58, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1559, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 71, "accurate_pass": 62, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 107, "combined_rank_score": 106.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 52.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.7, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 160.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.831, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Eric García", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "José Sanhueza", "ranking": 102 }, { "player_name": "Fedor Lapoukhov", "ranking": 103 }, { "player_name": "Ramón Sosa", "ranking": 104 }, { "player_name": "Hakan Çalhanoğlu", "ranking": 105 }, { "player_name": "Paulo Dybala", "ranking": 106 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Gabriel Castellón", "ranking": 108 }, { "player_name": "Ben White", "ranking": 109 }, { "player_name": "Federico Dimarco", "ranking": 110 }, { "player_name": "Jérémy Doku", "ranking": 111 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Lamas", "ranking": 112 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.625, "history_matches": 6, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 6, "data_confidence": 0.625, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.910768701577831, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.3595803955262651, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0826, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (6 historical appearances) to 14.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.36)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.831, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 66, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29, "total_opp_half_passes": 41, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 37, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 91, "possession_lost": 9.5, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.09, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 42, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:01:55.523250+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 402, "rows": 11400 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2408, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2047, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.174, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 7.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 2.4371, "defensive_actions": 2.8568, "wonTackle": 1.5277, "totalTackle_p90": 2.1347, "totalClearance_p90": 2.4842, "aerialWon": 0.8038 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.6317891478538513, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0903 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0858 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0447 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0364 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1987 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0586 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0272 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0144 } ], "others": 0.0121, "total": 0.6318, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.101631, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.248366 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.086827 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.04302 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.024198 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.023023 } ], "others_margin": 0.019469 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.6389623880386353, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.1044 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0629 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.045 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0342 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3313, "items": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.15 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.115 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.06 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0385 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": 0.032, "total": 1.639, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.286166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.106743 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.074743 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.03687 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.023503 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.006714 } ], "others_margin": 0.019757 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.0761668682098389, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.1003 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0586 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0501 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0492 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0386 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8256, "items": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.1465 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0826 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0184 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0107 } ], "others": 0.0033, "total": 1.0762, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.191612, "item_margins": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.163329 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.081578 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.017273 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01023 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.010063 } ], "others_margin": 0.003004 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.8923966884613037, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.138 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0733 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.3876, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6868 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.3834 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.1838 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1334 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0581 } ], "others": -0.0497, "total": 1.8924, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.220122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.226584 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.153117 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.082647 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.064567 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.029501 } ], "others_margin": -0.025861 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.5463300943374634, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1155 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0659 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "importance": 0.0345 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0335 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0332 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.2696, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.5731 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1362 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0421 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0347 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0258 } ], "others": -0.0324, "total": 0.5463, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.238719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.60041 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.217566 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.078195 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.064818 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.045664 } ], "others_margin": -0.057562 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3765, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.476, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0519 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0265 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0345, "total": 0.3765, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.476045, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.051868 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.026493 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.015819 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.01425 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.011803 } ], "others_margin": -0.034585 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.831035614013672, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0466 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0352 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7578, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1027 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0416 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0268 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0236 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0201 } ], "others": -0.0478, "total": 6.831, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.757789, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.102703 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.041592 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.026817 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.023631 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.020089 } ], "others_margin": -0.047773 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0826, quality 0.775)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.831, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 79, "accurate_pass": 71, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31, "total_opp_half_passes": 45, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 99, "possession_lost": 10.285, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0974, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 45, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 39000000, "quality_factor": 0.7754, "boost_factor": 1.0826 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 14.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.36)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.831, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 1.704, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.36, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.91 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.91, "appearance_probability": 0.36 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.831, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 1.704, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.36, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.91 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.831, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 1.704, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.36, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.91, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 107, "fifa_rank": 160.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } } ] }, "Gerard Martín": { "player_id": 1094827, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 186, "market_value": 32000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.9917, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 0.7882, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.352, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.74, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416349.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 38, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346.0, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 69, "accurate_pass": 66, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0056, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 43, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 89, "accurate_pass": 82, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1036, "expected_assists": 0.0267, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 95, "accurate_pass": 93, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 56, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 12, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1191, "combined_rank_score": 525.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 108.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.45, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 942.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9917, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gerard Martín", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Diego Rubio", "ranking": 1186 }, { "player_name": "Ismaïla Sarr", "ranking": 1187 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Danso", "ranking": 1188 }, { "player_name": "Folarin Balogun", "ranking": 1189 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan David", "ranking": 1190 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Keelan Lebon", "ranking": 1192 }, { "player_name": "Sukhrob Nurullaev", "ranking": 1193 }, { "player_name": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "ranking": 1194 }, { "player_name": "Choi Hee-won", "ranking": 1195 }, { "player_name": "Murodbek Rahmatov", "ranking": 1196 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.625, "history_matches": 6, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 6, "data_confidence": 0.625, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.738792805130341, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.35176330932410643, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0696, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (6 historical appearances) to 14.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.35)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.9917, "minutes": 73, "total_pass": 67, "accurate_pass": 63, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 38, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38, "total_opp_half_passes": 29, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 77, "possession_lost": 4.5, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.02, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 26, "total_progression": 93, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:01:55.523250+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 402, "rows": 11400 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2408, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2047, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.174, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 4.2111, "defensive_actions": 1.7285, "wonTackle": 0.3477, "totalTackle_p90": 1.3019, "totalClearance_p90": 6.3925, "aerialWon": 1.4127 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.7052322030067444, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0903 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0858 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0447 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0364 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2283 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0469 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0275 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0254 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0274, "total": 0.7052, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.101631, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.291346 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.067135 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.038766 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.035919 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.017507 } ], "others_margin": -0.038046 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.115101933479309, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.1044 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0629 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.045 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0342 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3313, "items": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0649 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0436 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0381 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0301 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": -0.026, "total": 1.1151, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.286166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.049978 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.035005 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.031678 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.025732 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.011767 } ], "others_margin": -0.023059 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.6536116003990173, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.1003 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0586 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0501 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0492 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0386 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8256, "items": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.1273 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0305 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0139 } ], "others": -0.0046, "total": 0.6536, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.191612, "item_margins": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.167476 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.044676 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.034045 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.027586 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.020927 } ], "others_margin": -0.007011 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.505235195159912, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.138 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0733 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.3876, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -1.1428 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1935 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1082 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0735 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0614 } ], "others": -0.0292, "total": 2.5052, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.220122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.411512 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.082688 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.043438 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.02929 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.024535 } ], "others_margin": -0.011598 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.0130350589752197, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1155 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0659 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "importance": 0.0345 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0335 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0332 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.2696, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4238 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.099 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0476 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0364 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0334 } ], "others": 0.0236, "total": 1.013, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.238719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.406128 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.110689 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.049173 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.037416 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.034305 } ], "others_margin": 0.023609 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3947, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.476, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0561 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0168 } ], "others": -0.0253, "total": 0.3947, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.476045, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.0561 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.01828 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.017921 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.017074 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.016793 } ], "others_margin": -0.025345 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.991749286651611, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0466 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0352 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7578, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1068 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0546 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0132 } ], "others": 0.0838, "total": 6.9917, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.757789, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.106826 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.054581 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.016693 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.014839 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.013158 } ], "others_margin": 0.083855 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0696, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.9917, "minutes": 73, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 67, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 41, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40, "total_opp_half_passes": 31, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 83, "possession_lost": 4.8132, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0214, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 100, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732, "boost_factor": 1.0696 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 14.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.35)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.9917, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 0.7882, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.352, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.74 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.74, "appearance_probability": 0.352 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.9917, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 0.7882, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.352, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.74 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.9917, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 0.7882, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.352, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.74, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1191, "fifa_rank": 942.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } } ] }, "Rodri": { "player_id": 827606, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 191, "market_value": 50000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "assist_rate": 0.0249, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0335, "goal_rate": 0.021, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 7.302, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 1.5273, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.5, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416349.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6712, "expected_assists": 0.0412, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 67, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346.0, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 8.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0576, "expected_assists": 0.3232, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 55, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0662, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 117, "accurate_pass": 111, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0795, "expected_assists": 0.0737, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 83, "accurate_pass": 81, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059.0, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0267, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 50, "combined_rank_score": 60.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 113.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.43, "sofascore_appearances": 21.0, "fifa_rank": 8.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.302, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Rodri", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bukayo Saka", "ranking": 45 }, { "player_name": "Federico Valverde", "ranking": 46 }, { "player_name": "Ayrton Lucas", "ranking": 47 }, { "player_name": "Giorgian de Arrascaeta", "ranking": 48 }, { "player_name": "Rayan Cherki", "ranking": 49 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matheus Serafim", "ranking": 51 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Frizzo", "ranking": 52 }, { "player_name": "Florian Wirtz", "ranking": 53 }, { "player_name": "Martín Zubimendi", "ranking": 54 }, { "player_name": "Luan Dias", "ranking": 55 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.625, "history_matches": 6, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 6, "data_confidence": 0.625, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.503601607115876, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5683455275961762, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0972, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (6 historical appearances) to 23.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.57)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0789, "assist_rate": 0.0869, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.117, "goal_rate": 0.0733, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.302, "minutes": 59, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 61, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "total_opp_half_passes": 38, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 74, "possession_lost": 5.33, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 75, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:02:07.046807+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 550, "rows": 13779 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2408, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2047, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.174, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.8343, "expectedAssists": 0.1025, "creative_index": 0.4235, "creative_efficiency": 0.0568, "shotValueNormalized": -0.0604, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.1844 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8433091044425964, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.12 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0959 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0425 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9267, "items": [ { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.1089 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.034 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0312 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0195 } ], "others": -0.0249, "total": 0.8433, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.076148, "item_margins": [ { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.124992 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.042482 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.042157 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.037487 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.022709 } ], "others_margin": -0.029152 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07889416068792343, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.118 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0768 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0579 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0078 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.006 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0028 } ], "others": 0.0004, "total": 0.0789, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439192, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.085877 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.065244 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.053603 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.037819 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.035529 } ], "others_margin": 0.005862 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.08692754060029984, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0669 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0465 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0404 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0851, "items": [ { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0086 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0064 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0025 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0025 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0023 } ], "others": -0.0109, "total": 0.0869, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.463441, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.096066 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.066155 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.02542 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.0248 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": -0.023194 } ], "others_margin": -0.117646 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.11699710786342621, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.082 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0344 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1826, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0306 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.008 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0059 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0055 } ], "others": -0.0314, "total": 0.117, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.700309, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.183288 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.082058 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.055451 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.038804 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.036221 } ], "others_margin": -0.237985 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07329407334327698, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0879 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0676 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0294 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1479, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0275 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0047 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.0036 } ], "others": -0.0198, "total": 0.0733, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.911166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.206085 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.102828 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": -0.068536 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.04709 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": -0.03774 } ], "others_margin": -0.239831 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.24095305800437927, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1114 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.033 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3374, "items": [ { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0294, "total": 0.241, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.086396, "item_margins": [ { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": -0.056466 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.052964 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.050766 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.031366 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.029594 } ], "others_margin": -0.115601 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7813530580043793, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1236 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0751 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.0381, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0802 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0477 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0288 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0189 } ], "others": -0.0575, "total": 0.7814, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.038069, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.080207 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.047748 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.028757 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.023623 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.018912 } ], "others_margin": -0.057471 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.302048206329346, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0666 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0305 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8598, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1295 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0443 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0309 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0228 } ], "others": 0.1594, "total": 7.302, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.859756, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.129522 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.05527 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.044259 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.03094 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.022805 } ], "others_margin": 0.159496 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0972, quality 0.824)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0866, "assist_rate": 0.0954, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1284, "goal_rate": 0.0804, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.302, "minutes": 59, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 67, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "total_own_half_passes": 29, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27, "total_opp_half_passes": 42, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 40, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 82, "possession_lost": 5.8483, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 24, "total_progression": 83, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 50000000, "quality_factor": 0.8241, "boost_factor": 1.0972 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 23.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "assist_rate": 0.0249, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0335, "goal_rate": 0.021, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 7.302, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 1.5273, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.5 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.5, "appearance_probability": 0.568 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "assist_rate": 0.0249, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0335, "goal_rate": 0.021, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 7.302, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 1.5273, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.5 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 90.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "assist_rate": 0.0249, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0335, "goal_rate": 0.021, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 7.302, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 1.5273, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.5, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 50, "fifa_rank": 8.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 90.0 } } ] }, "Frenkie de Jong": { "player_id": 795222, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 180, "market_value": 32000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0437, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "expected_goals": 0.0314, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.3, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 2.5967, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0231, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0213, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.14, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 59, "combined_rank_score": 74.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 47.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.7714, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 101.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.3, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Frenkie de Jong", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Martín Zubimendi", "ranking": 54 }, { "player_name": "Luan Dias", "ranking": 55 }, { "player_name": "César Yanis", "ranking": 56 }, { "player_name": "Pau Cubarsí", "ranking": 57 }, { "player_name": "Declan Rice", "ranking": 58 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lucas Paquetá", "ranking": 60 }, { "player_name": "Rúben Dias", "ranking": 61 }, { "player_name": "Luis Díaz", "ranking": 62 }, { "player_name": "Max Weiss", "ranking": 63 }, { "player_name": "Paul Villero", "ranking": 64 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 23.138792805130343, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5517633093241064, "market_value_adjustment": 0.732, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€32,000,000) scaled to 23.1 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position M (quality 0.73)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "assist_rate": 0.17, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.191, "expected_goals": 0.122, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 50, "ball_recovery": 6, "duels_won": 8, "rating": 7.3, "minutes": 90, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 76, "possession_lost": 10.1, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.083, "ball_carries": 37, "total_progression": 99, "progressive_carries": 9 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 23.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0437, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "expected_goals": 0.0314, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.3, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 2.5967, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0231, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0213, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.14 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.14, "appearance_probability": 0.552 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0437, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "expected_goals": 0.0314, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.3, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 2.5967, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0231, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0213, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.14 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0437, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "expected_goals": 0.0314, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "rating": 7.3, "minutes": 23, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 2.5967, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0231, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0213, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.14, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 59, "fifa_rank": 101.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } } ] }, "Gabriel Jesus": { "player_id": 794839, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 175, "market_value": 17600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0913, "goal_rate": 0.0577, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8134, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.7949, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0514, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0133, "finishing_factor": 0.9809, "creation_factor": 0.8157, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416349.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346.0, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1758, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.123, "expected_assists": 0.222, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2126, "combined_rank_score": 803.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 745.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6667, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 862.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8134, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gabriel Jesus", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Edvinas Girdvainis", "ranking": 2121 }, { "player_name": "Son Seung-Min", "ranking": 2122 }, { "player_name": "Diogo Dalot", "ranking": 2123 }, { "player_name": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "ranking": 2124 }, { "player_name": "Crysencio Summerville", "ranking": 2125 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sepp van den Berg", "ranking": 2127 }, { "player_name": "Chan-hyung Lee", "ranking": 2128 }, { "player_name": "Sarvar Abduhamidov", "ranking": 2129 }, { "player_name": "Oleksiy Shchebetun", "ranking": 2130 }, { "player_name": "Nurzhakhon Muzaffarov", "ranking": 2131 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.963015995530526, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5892279997968422, "market_value_adjustment": 1.032, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (3 historical appearances) to 26.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.59)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2007, "goal_rate": 0.1937, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.038, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8134, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 2.67, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:02:15.441175+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 325, "rows": 6303 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 21.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3304, "totalShots": 0.8921, "minutesPlayed": 13.3537, "shotValueNormalized": 0.0669, "accuratePass": 5.4606, "expectedAssists": 0.0633 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.2007443606853485, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0826 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0724 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0352 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3626, "items": [ { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0486 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0323, "total": 0.2007, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.014464, "item_margins": [ { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.143963 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.101045 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.082423 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.073235 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": -0.041059 } ], "others_margin": -0.149534 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.19368065893650055, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1258 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0323 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2866, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0066 } ], "others": -0.0386, "total": 0.1937, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.249595, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.11131 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.101461 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.080346 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.049752 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.028072 } ], "others_margin": -0.1817 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.4137679636478424, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1486 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "importance": 0.0618 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5888, "items": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.1309 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0699 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0566 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0151 } ], "others": -0.0517, "total": 0.4138, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.52966, "item_margins": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.251437 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.142009 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.113499 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.045063 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.032887 } ], "others_margin": -0.117686 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.021599292755127, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.1122 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0872 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0825 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0566 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.4352, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1699 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.1572 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0781 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.064 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0523 } ], "others": -0.0483, "total": 1.0216, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.435195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.169897 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.157205 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.078059 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.064036 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.052339 } ], "others_margin": -0.048178 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.037986986339092255, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1197 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0571 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0369 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.06, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0033 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0143, "total": 0.038, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.812623, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.158144 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.103276 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.060718 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.060062 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.037122 } ], "others_margin": -0.319362 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3750607967376709, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1105 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0444 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0409 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6782, "items": [ { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.2144 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0384 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0354 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0148 } ], "others": -0.0842, "total": 0.3751, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.388283, "item_margins": [ { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.379961 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.086466 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.079886 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.036072 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.032781 } ], "others_margin": -0.202552 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.813398838043213, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0724 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0438 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.815, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0465 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.034 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0225 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0178 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0413, "total": 6.8134, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.814961, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.046466 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.033997 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.022483 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017804 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.01307 } ], "others_margin": -0.041248 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0320, quality 0.607)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2072, "goal_rate": 0.1999, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8134, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.7556, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17600000, "quality_factor": 0.6068, "boost_factor": 1.032 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 26.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0598, "goal_rate": 0.0577, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8134, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.7949, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.96, "appearance_probability": 0.589 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0598, "goal_rate": 0.0577, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8134, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.7949, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.94 (squad xG sum 2.5838, xG scale 1.5265, xA scale 2.0186, team xA 2.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0913, "goal_rate": 0.0577, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8134, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.7949, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9809, "creation_factor": 0.8157 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.944, "squad_xg_sum": 2.5838, "squad_xa_sum": 1.27, "team_expected_assists": 2.5636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5265, "xa_scale": 2.0186, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.589 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0598, "after": 0.0913 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0113, "after": 0.0228 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0913, "goal_rate": 0.0577, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8134, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.7949, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9809, "creation_factor": 0.8157, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2126, "fifa_rank": 862.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0913, "goal_rate": 0.0577, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8134, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.7949, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0514, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9809, "creation_factor": 0.8157, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0514, "scorer_weight": 0.0527, "squad_weight_total": 3.8932, "weight_share": 0.0135, "finishing_factor": 0.9809, "appearance_weight": 0.589, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.7684, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7684, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6925 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.6925, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6925, "runner_up": "Anthony Gordon", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6713 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Anthony Gordon", "weight": 0.6713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6713, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6528 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0913, "goal_rate": 0.0577, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8134, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.7949, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0514, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0133, "finishing_factor": 0.9809, "creation_factor": 0.8157, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0133, "provider_weight": 0.011, "squad_weight_total": 2.3091, "weight_share": 0.0047, "creation_factor": 0.8157, "appearance_weight": 0.589, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.3698, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3698, "runner_up": "Dani Olmo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3331 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Dani Olmo", "weight": 0.3331, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3331, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.299 } ] } } ] }, "Roony Bardghji": { "player_id": 1162107, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 173, "market_value": 15500000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1238, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6163, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0259, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0943, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0681, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0336, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9571, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3803, "combined_rank_score": 1804.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 702.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6944, "sofascore_appearances": 21.0, "fifa_rank": 2907.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Roony Bardghji", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jaden Philogene", "ranking": 3798 }, { "player_name": "Kenny McLean", "ranking": 3799 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Izquierdoz", "ranking": 3800 }, { "player_name": "Bartłomiej Drągowski", "ranking": 3801 }, { "player_name": "Eliesse Ben Seghir", "ranking": 3802 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nilson Angulo", "ranking": 3804 }, { "player_name": "James McAtee", "ranking": 3805 }, { "player_name": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "ranking": 3806 }, { "player_name": "Yáser Asprilla", "ranking": 3807 }, { "player_name": "Stephen Eustaquio", "ranking": 3808 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.875021941280785, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5852282700582175, "market_value_adjustment": 0.5846, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€15,500,000) scaled to 25.9 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position F (quality 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.282, "goal_rate": 0.18, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.102, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 9.1, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.09, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.215, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 54, "progressive_carries": 6 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15500000, "quality_factor": 0.5846 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0811, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0293, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6163, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0259, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0618, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.88, "appearance_probability": 0.585 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0811, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0293, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6163, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0259, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0618, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.94 (squad xG sum 2.5838, xG scale 1.5265, xA scale 2.0186, team xA 2.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1238, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6163, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0259, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0943, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9571 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.944, "squad_xg_sum": 2.5838, "squad_xa_sum": 1.27, "team_expected_assists": 2.5636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5265, "xa_scale": 2.0186, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.585 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0811, "after": 0.1238 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0293, "after": 0.0591 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1238, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6163, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0259, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0943, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9571, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3803, "fifa_rank": 2907.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1238, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6163, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0259, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0943, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0681, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9571, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0681, "scorer_weight": 0.0579, "squad_weight_total": 3.8932, "weight_share": 0.0149, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.585, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.7684, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7684, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6925 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.6925, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6925, "runner_up": "Anthony Gordon", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6713 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Anthony Gordon", "weight": 0.6713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6713, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6528 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1238, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6163, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0259, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0943, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0681, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0336, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9571, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0336, "provider_weight": 0.0331, "squad_weight_total": 2.3091, "weight_share": 0.0143, "creation_factor": 0.9571, "appearance_weight": 0.585, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.3698, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3698, "runner_up": "Dani Olmo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3331 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Dani Olmo", "weight": 0.3331, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3331, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.299 } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Gabriel Jesus": { "player_id": 794839, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 175, "market_value": 17600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0913, "goal_rate": 0.0577, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8134, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.7949, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0514, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0133, "finishing_factor": 0.9809, "creation_factor": 0.8157, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416349.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346.0, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1758, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325.0, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.123, "expected_assists": 0.222, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2126, "combined_rank_score": 803.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 745.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6667, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 862.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8134, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gabriel Jesus", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Edvinas Girdvainis", "ranking": 2121 }, { "player_name": "Son Seung-Min", "ranking": 2122 }, { "player_name": "Diogo Dalot", "ranking": 2123 }, { "player_name": "Ainsley Maitland-Niles", "ranking": 2124 }, { "player_name": "Crysencio Summerville", "ranking": 2125 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sepp van den Berg", "ranking": 2127 }, { "player_name": "Chan-hyung Lee", "ranking": 2128 }, { "player_name": "Sarvar Abduhamidov", "ranking": 2129 }, { "player_name": "Oleksiy Shchebetun", "ranking": 2130 }, { "player_name": "Nurzhakhon Muzaffarov", "ranking": 2131 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.963015995530526, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5892279997968422, "market_value_adjustment": 1.032, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (3 historical appearances) to 26.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.59)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2007, "goal_rate": 0.1937, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.038, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8134, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 2.67, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:02:15.441175+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 325, "rows": 6303 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 21.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3304, "totalShots": 0.8921, "minutesPlayed": 13.3537, "shotValueNormalized": 0.0669, "accuratePass": 5.4606, "expectedAssists": 0.0633 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.2007443606853485, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0826 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0724 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0352 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3626, "items": [ { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0486 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0323, "total": 0.2007, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.014464, "item_margins": [ { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.143963 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.101045 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.082423 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.073235 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": -0.041059 } ], "others_margin": -0.149534 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.19368065893650055, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1258 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0323 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2866, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0066 } ], "others": -0.0386, "total": 0.1937, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.249595, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.11131 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.101461 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.080346 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.049752 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.028072 } ], "others_margin": -0.1817 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.4137679636478424, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1486 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "importance": 0.0618 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5888, "items": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.1309 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0699 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0566 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0151 } ], "others": -0.0517, "total": 0.4138, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.52966, "item_margins": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.251437 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.142009 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.113499 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.045063 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.032887 } ], "others_margin": -0.117686 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.021599292755127, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.1122 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0872 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0825 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0566 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.4352, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1699 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.1572 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0781 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.064 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0523 } ], "others": -0.0483, "total": 1.0216, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.435195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.169897 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.157205 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.078059 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.064036 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.052339 } ], "others_margin": -0.048178 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.037986986339092255, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1197 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0571 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0369 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.06, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0033 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0143, "total": 0.038, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.812623, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.158144 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.103276 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.060718 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.060062 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.037122 } ], "others_margin": -0.319362 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3750607967376709, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1105 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0444 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0409 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6782, "items": [ { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.2144 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0384 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0354 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0148 } ], "others": -0.0842, "total": 0.3751, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.388283, "item_margins": [ { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.379961 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.086466 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.079886 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.036072 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.032781 } ], "others_margin": -0.202552 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.813398838043213, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0724 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0438 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.815, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0465 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.034 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0225 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0178 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0413, "total": 6.8134, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.814961, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.046466 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.033997 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.022483 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017804 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.01307 } ], "others_margin": -0.041248 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0320, quality 0.607)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2072, "goal_rate": 0.1999, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8134, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.7556, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17600000, "quality_factor": 0.6068, "boost_factor": 1.032 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 26.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0598, "goal_rate": 0.0577, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8134, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.7949, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.96, "appearance_probability": 0.589 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0598, "goal_rate": 0.0577, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8134, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.7949, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.94 (squad xG sum 2.5838, xG scale 1.5265, xA scale 2.0186, team xA 2.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0913, "goal_rate": 0.0577, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8134, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.7949, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9809, "creation_factor": 0.8157 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.944, "squad_xg_sum": 2.5838, "squad_xa_sum": 1.27, "team_expected_assists": 2.5636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5265, "xa_scale": 2.0186, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.589 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0598, "after": 0.0913 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0113, "after": 0.0228 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0913, "goal_rate": 0.0577, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8134, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.7949, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9809, "creation_factor": 0.8157, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2126, "fifa_rank": 862.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0913, "goal_rate": 0.0577, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8134, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.7949, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0514, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9809, "creation_factor": 0.8157, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0514, "scorer_weight": 0.0527, "squad_weight_total": 3.8932, "weight_share": 0.0135, "finishing_factor": 0.9809, "appearance_weight": 0.589, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.7684, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7684, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6925 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.6925, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6925, "runner_up": "Anthony Gordon", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6713 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Anthony Gordon", "weight": 0.6713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6713, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6528 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0913, "goal_rate": 0.0577, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8134, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.7949, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0514, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0133, "finishing_factor": 0.9809, "creation_factor": 0.8157, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0133, "provider_weight": 0.011, "squad_weight_total": 2.3091, "weight_share": 0.0047, "creation_factor": 0.8157, "appearance_weight": 0.589, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.3698, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3698, "runner_up": "Dani Olmo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3331 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Dani Olmo", "weight": 0.3331, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3331, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.299 } ] } } ] }, "Roony Bardghji": { "player_id": 1162107, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 173, "market_value": 15500000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1238, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6163, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0259, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0943, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0681, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0336, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9571, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3803, "combined_rank_score": 1804.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 702.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6944, "sofascore_appearances": 21.0, "fifa_rank": 2907.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Roony Bardghji", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jaden Philogene", "ranking": 3798 }, { "player_name": "Kenny McLean", "ranking": 3799 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Izquierdoz", "ranking": 3800 }, { "player_name": "Bartłomiej Drągowski", "ranking": 3801 }, { "player_name": "Eliesse Ben Seghir", "ranking": 3802 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nilson Angulo", "ranking": 3804 }, { "player_name": "James McAtee", "ranking": 3805 }, { "player_name": "Jens-Lys Cajuste", "ranking": 3806 }, { "player_name": "Yáser Asprilla", "ranking": 3807 }, { "player_name": "Stephen Eustaquio", "ranking": 3808 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.875021941280785, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5852282700582175, "market_value_adjustment": 0.5846, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€15,500,000) scaled to 25.9 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position F (quality 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.282, "goal_rate": 0.18, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.102, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 23, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 9.1, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.09, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.215, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 54, "progressive_carries": 6 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15500000, "quality_factor": 0.5846 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0811, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0293, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6163, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0259, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0618, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.88, "appearance_probability": 0.585 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0811, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0293, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6163, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0259, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0618, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 3.94 (squad xG sum 2.5838, xG scale 1.5265, xA scale 2.0186, team xA 2.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1238, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6163, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0259, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0943, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9571 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.944, "squad_xg_sum": 2.5838, "squad_xa_sum": 1.27, "team_expected_assists": 2.5636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5265, "xa_scale": 2.0186, "opponent_lambda": 0.65, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.585 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0811, "after": 0.1238 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0293, "after": 0.0591 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1238, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6163, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0259, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0943, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9571, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3803, "fifa_rank": 2907.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1238, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6163, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0259, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0943, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0681, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9571, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0681, "scorer_weight": 0.0579, "squad_weight_total": 3.8932, "weight_share": 0.0149, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.585, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.7684, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7684, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6925 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.6925, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6925, "runner_up": "Anthony Gordon", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6713 }, { "n": 3, "player": "Anthony Gordon", "weight": 0.6713, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6713, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.6528 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1238, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6163, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0259, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0943, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.654, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0681, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0336, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9571, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0336, "provider_weight": 0.0331, "squad_weight_total": 2.3091, "weight_share": 0.0143, "creation_factor": 0.9571, "appearance_weight": 0.585, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.3698, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3698, "runner_up": "Dani Olmo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3331 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Dani Olmo", "weight": 0.3331, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3331, "runner_up": "Karim Adeyemi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.299 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 3, "expected_goals": 3.94, "expected_assists": 2.56, "total_shots": 21, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 470, "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 3, "avg_rating": 6.99, "possession_estimated_pct": 54.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.8 } }, "Getafe": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "David Soria": { "player_id": 604258, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 192, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0499, "rating": 7.2305, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 27, "accurate_long_balls": 12, "touches": 38, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 15.1404, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.33, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 4.0, "cleanSheets": 0.3333, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.3333, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 66.7, "cleanSheetPct": 33.3, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 3.7837, "shots_faced": 37.5, "expected_saves": 9.18, "high_pressure_saves": 3.16, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon, Karim Adeyemi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416303.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.2811 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336.0, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 1.0228 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416326.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.3327 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348.0, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.2135 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0075 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 1.2046 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047.0, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -0.6513 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 935, "combined_rank_score": 436.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 122.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.4, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 750.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.2305, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "David Soria", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Isco", "ranking": 930 }, { "player_name": "Karim Benzema", "ranking": 931 }, { "player_name": "Julen Agirrezabala", "ranking": 932 }, { "player_name": "Koen Casteels", "ranking": 933 }, { "player_name": "Danilo Pereira", "ranking": 934 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jasurbek Jaloliddinov", "ranking": 936 }, { "player_name": "Kalidou Koulibaly", "ranking": 937 }, { "player_name": "Dragan Ceran", "ranking": 938 }, { "player_name": "Benjamín Berríos", "ranking": 939 }, { "player_name": "Golib Gaybullaev", "ranking": 940 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.718, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.718, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 7 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Getafe, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0509, "rating": 7.2305, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 27, "accurate_long_balls": 12, "touches": 38, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 15.43, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 4, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:01:45.250339+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 135, "rows": 3738 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "save_contribution": 3.7192, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.4104, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.655, "possessionLostCtrl": 14.8489, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.5398, "accurateLongBalls": 11.6722 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.0289061069488525, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0523 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0514 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0445 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9861, "items": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.0698 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0665 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0448 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0212 } ], "others": -0.0111, "total": 3.0289, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.093963, "item_margins": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.023103 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.022 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.014877 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.008866 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.006946 } ], "others_margin": -0.003662 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.0508955717086792, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0515 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0478 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.043 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0455, "items": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.0681 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0451 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": 0.0338 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0303 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0208 } ], "others": 0.0301, "total": 0.0509, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.045465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.068066 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.04513 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": 0.033756 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.030287 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.020786 } ], "others_margin": 0.030168 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.230526447296143, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.075 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0537 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0478 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0409 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0878, "items": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.0577 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0507 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0461 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0165 } ], "others": 0.0489, "total": 7.2305, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.087778, "item_margins": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.057707 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.050673 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.046066 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.024167 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.016467 } ], "others_margin": 0.049012 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0499, "rating": 7.2305, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 27, "accurate_long_balls": 12, "touches": 38, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 15.1404, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0499, "rating": 7.2305, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 27, "accurate_long_balls": 12, "touches": 38, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 15.1404, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.33, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 4.0, "cleanSheets": 0.3333, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.3333, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 66.7, "cleanSheetPct": 33.3, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -1.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0542, "history_matches": 7, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0361 }, { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9721, "after": 2.9556 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0499, "rating": 7.2305, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 27, "accurate_long_balls": 12, "touches": 38, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 15.1404, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.33, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 4.0, "cleanSheets": 0.3333, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.3333, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 66.7, "cleanSheetPct": 33.3, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0499, "rating": 7.2305, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 27, "accurate_long_balls": 12, "touches": 38, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 15.1404, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.33, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 4.0, "cleanSheets": 0.3333, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.3333, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 66.7, "cleanSheetPct": 33.3, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 3.7837, "shots_faced": 35.9, "expected_saves": 8.78, "high_pressure_saves": 3.03, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon, Karim Adeyemi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon, Karim Adeyemi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 3.7837 } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 1.1918, xG scale 0.5454, xA scale 0.8249, team xA 0.42 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0499, "rating": 7.2305, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 27, "accurate_long_balls": 12, "touches": 38, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 15.1404, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.33, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 4.0, "cleanSheets": 0.3333, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.3333, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 66.7, "cleanSheetPct": 33.3, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 3.7837, "shots_faced": 37.5, "expected_saves": 9.18, "high_pressure_saves": 3.16, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon, Karim Adeyemi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1918, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5122, "team_expected_assists": 0.4225, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.5454, "xa_scale": 0.8249, "opponent_lambda": 3.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 35.9, "after": 37.5 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 8.78, "after": 9.18 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 3.03, "after": 3.16 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0499, "rating": 7.2305, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 27, "accurate_long_balls": 12, "touches": 38, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 15.1404, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.33, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 4.0, "cleanSheets": 0.3333, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.3333, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 66.7, "cleanSheetPct": 33.3, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 3.7837, "shots_faced": 37.5, "expected_saves": 9.18, "high_pressure_saves": 3.16, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon, Karim Adeyemi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 935, "fifa_rank": 750.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0499, "rating": 7.2305, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 27, "accurate_long_balls": 12, "touches": 38, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 15.1404, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.33, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 4.0, "cleanSheets": 0.3333, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.3333, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 66.7, "cleanSheetPct": 33.3, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 3.7837, "shots_faced": 37.5, "expected_saves": 9.18, "high_pressure_saves": 3.16, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon, Karim Adeyemi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.6066, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0499, "rating": 7.2305, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 27, "accurate_long_balls": 12, "touches": 38, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 15.1404, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 1.33, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 4.0, "cleanSheets": 0.3333, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.3333, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 66.7, "cleanSheetPct": 33.3, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 3.7837, "shots_faced": 37.5, "expected_saves": 9.18, "high_pressure_saves": 3.16, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon, Karim Adeyemi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.4059, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } } ] }, "Andrés García": { "player_id": 1457536, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 183, "market_value": 6500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6779, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 46, "possession_lost": 12.258, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0246, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 44, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 84.4, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.629, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0243, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416303.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1053, "expected_assists": 0.0954, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336.0, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0076, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": "16416326.0", "match_date": "2026-09-13 16:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": "100.0", "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": "True", "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416348.0, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0469, "expected_assists": 0.0589, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0557, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047.0, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4003, "combined_rank_score": 1985.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 3526.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6779, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Andrés García", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Tai Baribo", "ranking": 3998 }, { "player_name": "Claudio Echeverri", "ranking": 3999 }, { "player_name": "Turrientes", "ranking": 4000 }, { "player_name": "Agirrezabala", "ranking": 4001 }, { "player_name": "Enzo Bardeli", "ranking": 4002 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Antoni Milambo", "ranking": 4004 }, { "player_name": "Loum Tchaouna", "ranking": 4005 }, { "player_name": "Marco Grüll", "ranking": 4006 }, { "player_name": "Soungoutou Magassa", "ranking": 4007 }, { "player_name": "Mikel Amondarain", "ranking": 4008 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.65, "history_matches": 6, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 6, "data_confidence": 0.65, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9942, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 228.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.18, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 6 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Getafe, rel: 0.17, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6779, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 46, "possession_lost": 12.33, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.03, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 44, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:01:55.523250+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 402, "rows": 11400 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2408, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2047, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.174, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 1.6903, "defensive_actions": 2.2879, "wonTackle": 1.2135, "totalTackle_p90": 1.9505, "totalClearance_p90": 1.9991, "aerialWon": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.6005179286003113, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0903 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0858 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0447 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0364 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9034, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.1353 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.1076 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0202 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0167 } ], "others": -0.0453, "total": 0.6005, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.101631, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.162286 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.151011 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.030169 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.027105 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.02552 } ], "others_margin": -0.072578 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.4367133378982544, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.1044 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0629 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.045 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0342 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3313, "items": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.1493 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0866 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0393 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.03 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0134 } ], "others": 0.0386, "total": 1.4367, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.286166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.106315 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.060257 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.028623 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.021915 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.009612 } ], "others_margin": 0.02723 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.8562238812446594, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.1003 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0586 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0501 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0492 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0386 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8256, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0349 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0323 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0263 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0087 } ], "others": 0.005, "total": 0.8562, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.191612, "item_margins": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.041362 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.03821 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.03122 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.014099 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.010318 } ], "others_margin": 0.005797 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.296344041824341, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.138 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0733 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.3876, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.7798 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2435 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0868 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0696 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.028 } ], "others": -0.0228, "total": 2.2963, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.220122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.2616 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.098024 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.037404 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.030097 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.012003 } ], "others_margin": -0.009871 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.48029935359954834, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1155 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0659 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "importance": 0.0345 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0335 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0332 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.2696, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.6159 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0693 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0255 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0193 } ], "others": -0.036, "total": 0.4803, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.238719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.663799 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.112131 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.044581 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.042535 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.036659 } ], "others_margin": -0.072358 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4403, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.476, "items": [ { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0474 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0329 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0143 } ], "others": -0.0176, "total": 0.4403, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.476045, "item_margins": [ { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.047399 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.032868 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.030241 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.016733 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.014315 } ], "others_margin": -0.017658 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.677890777587891, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0466 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0352 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7578, "items": [ { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0106 } ], "others": -0.031, "total": 6.6779, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.757789, "item_margins": [ { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.021094 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.014905 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.012655 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.010822 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.010608 } ], "others_margin": -0.03103 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9942, quality 0.481)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6779, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 46, "possession_lost": 12.258, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0298, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 44, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6500000, "quality_factor": 0.4805, "boost_factor": 0.9942 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0493)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6779, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 46, "possession_lost": 12.258, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0298, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 44, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 84.4, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -0.39 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0493, "history_matches": 6, "prior_reliability": 0.1667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8512, "after": 0.9275 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.4377, "after": 0.4743 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.597, "after": 0.5676 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0197 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.6486, "after": 3.6659 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6779, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 46, "possession_lost": 12.258, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0298, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 44, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 84.4, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6779, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 46, "possession_lost": 12.258, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0298, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 44, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 84.4, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.629, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 1.1918, xG scale 0.5454, xA scale 0.8249, team xA 0.42 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6779, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 46, "possession_lost": 12.258, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0246, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 44, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 84.4, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.629, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1918, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5122, "team_expected_assists": 0.4225, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.5454, "xa_scale": 0.8249, "opponent_lambda": 3.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0298, "after": 0.0246 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6779, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 46, "possession_lost": 12.258, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0246, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 44, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 84.4, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.629, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4003, "fifa_rank": 3526.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6779, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 46, "possession_lost": 12.258, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0246, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 44, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 84.4, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.629, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 0.6066, "weight_share": 0.0016, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6779, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 46, "possession_lost": 12.258, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0246, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 44, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 84.4, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.629, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0243, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0243, "provider_weight": 0.0197, "squad_weight_total": 0.4059, "weight_share": 0.0485, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Abdel Abqar": { "player_id": 1101232, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 188, "market_value": 3300000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5671, "minutes": 46, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 4.9117, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 33.7, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.629, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416300.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047.0, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1666, "combined_rank_score": 767.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 675.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7227, "sofascore_appearances": 23.0, "fifa_rank": 860.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.5671, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Abdel Abqar", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Giacomo Raspadori", "ranking": 1661 }, { "player_name": "Wataru Endo", "ranking": 1662 }, { "player_name": "Barış Alper Yılmaz", "ranking": 1663 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Soler", "ranking": 1664 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Bentancur", "ranking": 1665 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sofyan Amrabat", "ranking": 1667 }, { "player_name": "Gang-han Lee", "ranking": 1668 }, { "player_name": "Choi Chi-ung", "ranking": 1669 }, { "player_name": "Robin Koch", "ranking": 1670 }, { "player_name": "Ryoji Fujimori", "ranking": 1671 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.385, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.385, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9823, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 91.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 2 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Getafe, rel: 0.07, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5671, "minutes": 46, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 5.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:01:55.523250+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 402, "rows": 11400 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": null }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.7568, "defensive_actions": 1.3784, "wonTackle": 0.4595, "totalTackle_p90": 0.9189, "totalClearance_p90": 51.8649, "aerialWon": 0.4595 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.6642857789993286, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0903 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0858 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0447 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0364 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9034, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.116 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0694 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0382 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0215 } ], "others": -0.0957, "total": 0.6643, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.101631, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.137449 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.092237 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.05186 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.032899 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.027934 } ], "others_margin": -0.134551 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.0103955268859863, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.1044 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0629 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.045 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0342 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3313, "items": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0852 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0543 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.049 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0314 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0298 } ], "others": -0.0712, "total": 1.0104, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.286166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.066115 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.044558 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.041963 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.027865 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.027144 } ], "others_margin": -0.068178 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.6188564896583557, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.1003 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0586 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0501 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0492 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0386 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8256, "items": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.133 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0342 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0272 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0174 } ], "others": -0.0427, "total": 0.6189, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.191612, "item_margins": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.175644 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.048228 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.038108 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.029922 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.025899 } ], "others_margin": -0.066925 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.6123971939086914, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.138 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0733 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.3876, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.6437 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.5937 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.536 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1551 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.1489 } ], "others": -0.1726, "total": 3.6124, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.220122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.173963 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.137388 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.123178 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.038662 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.038596 } ], "others_margin": -0.046666 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8414214253425598, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1155 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0659 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "importance": 0.0345 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0335 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0332 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.2696, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.4918 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.1404 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1196 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0838 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0808 } ], "others": -0.1934, "total": 0.8414, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.238719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.490034 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.165929 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.122466 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.084247 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.081287 } ], "others_margin": -0.206782 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2861, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.476, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0494 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0477 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0454 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0242 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0212 } ], "others": -0.002, "total": 0.2861, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.476045, "item_margins": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.049433 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.047683 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.045421 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.024239 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.021157 } ], "others_margin": -0.002023 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.567139148712158, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0466 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0352 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7578, "items": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0786 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.053 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0348 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0153 } ], "others": -0.0628, "total": 6.5671, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.757789, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.078626 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.052957 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.034826 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.015795 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.015267 } ], "others_margin": -0.062831 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9823, quality 0.441)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5671, "minutes": 46, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 4.9117, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3300000, "quality_factor": 0.4412, "boost_factor": 0.9823 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0310)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5671, "minutes": 46, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 4.9117, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 33.7, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -2.97 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.031, "history_matches": 2, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.031 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.031 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.6079, "after": 0.62 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.6526, "after": 0.6634 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.281, "after": 0.2723 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5671, "minutes": 46, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 4.9117, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 33.7, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5671, "minutes": 46, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 4.9117, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 33.7, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.629, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 1.1918, xG scale 0.5454, xA scale 0.8249, team xA 0.42 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5671, "minutes": 46, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 4.9117, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 33.7, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.629, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1918, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5122, "team_expected_assists": 0.4225, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.5454, "xa_scale": 0.8249, "opponent_lambda": 3.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5671, "minutes": 46, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 4.9117, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 33.7, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.629, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1666, "fifa_rank": 860.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5671, "minutes": 46, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 4.9117, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 33.7, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.629, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 0.6066, "weight_share": 0.0016, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5671, "minutes": 46, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 4.9117, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 33.7, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.629, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 0.4059, "weight_share": 0.0025, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Zaid Romero": { "player_id": 1108450, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 192, "market_value": 2400000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7075, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 9.9791, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0161, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416303.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 46, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336.0, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 6, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348.0, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0428, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 24, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 47, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 26, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047.0, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0577, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2838, "combined_rank_score": 960.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 348.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9867, "sofascore_appearances": 15.0, "fifa_rank": 1572.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7075, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Zaid Romero", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Shamsiddin Tursunmakhamadov", "ranking": 2833 }, { "player_name": "Dani Meso", "ranking": 2834 }, { "player_name": "Reggie Walsh", "ranking": 2835 }, { "player_name": "Kaden Rodney", "ranking": 2836 }, { "player_name": "Shumaira Mheuka", "ranking": 2837 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Diego Carrasco", "ranking": 2839 }, { "player_name": "James Scanlon", "ranking": 2840 }, { "player_name": "Paulinho", "ranking": 2841 }, { "player_name": "Marc Casadó", "ranking": 2842 }, { "player_name": "Maximilian Göppel", "ranking": 2843 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.655, "history_matches": 6, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 6, "data_confidence": 0.655, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 6 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Getafe, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7075, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 58, "possession_lost": 10.17, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.02, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 66, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:01:55.523250+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 402, "rows": 11400 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2408, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2047, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.174, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 5.2633, "defensive_actions": 3.5656, "wonTackle": 0.8482, "totalTackle_p90": 1.4055, "totalClearance_p90": 5.5022, "aerialWon": 1.0789 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.3705484867095947, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0903 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0858 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0447 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0364 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9034, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.1303 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.1343 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0323 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0276 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0271 } ], "others": 0.1155, "total": 1.3705, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.101631, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.134772 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.122155 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.027293 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.022706 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.021854 } ], "others_margin": 0.088064 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.3956027030944824, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.1044 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0629 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.045 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0342 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3313, "items": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.1549 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0635 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0013, "total": 1.3956, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.286166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.110066 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.04369 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.018338 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.009725 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.009638 } ], "others_margin": -0.000964 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.8580756783485413, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.1003 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0586 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0501 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0492 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0386 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8256, "items": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.1192 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0798 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0399 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0172 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": 0.0283, "total": 0.8581, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.191612, "item_margins": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.155964 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.106972 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.049462 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.02062 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.016147 } ], "others_margin": 0.033606 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.862689733505249, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.138 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0733 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.3876, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.47 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2251 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2037 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0637 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.061 } ], "others": 0.0238, "total": 3.8627, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.220122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.129933 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.060132 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.054573 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.016463 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.015778 } ], "others_margin": 0.006182 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.2361557483673096, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1155 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0659 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "importance": 0.0345 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0335 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0332 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.2696, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2046 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1904 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0757 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0736 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0475 } ], "others": -0.0022, "total": 1.2362, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.238719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.149409 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.138287 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.057262 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.055638 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.037658 } ], "others_margin": -0.0018 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4484159052371979, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.476, "items": [ { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0105 } ], "others": 0.0051, "total": 0.4484, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.476045, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.022835 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.020038 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.013047 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.012573 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.010481 } ], "others_margin": 0.005237 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.707544803619385, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0466 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0352 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7578, "items": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0304 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0117 } ], "others": -0.0492, "total": 6.7075, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.757789, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.030368 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": -0.01847 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.01271 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.012037 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.01171 } ], "others_margin": -0.049104 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7075, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 9.9791, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0591)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7075, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 9.9791, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -1.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0591, "history_matches": 6, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0788 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0591 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.44, "after": 0.414 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0197 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.842, "after": 0.8513 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7075, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 9.9791, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7075, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 9.9791, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 1.1918, xG scale 0.5454, xA scale 0.8249, team xA 0.42 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7075, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 9.9791, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1918, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5122, "team_expected_assists": 0.4225, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.5454, "xa_scale": 0.8249, "opponent_lambda": 3.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7075, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 9.9791, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2838, "fifa_rank": 1572.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7075, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 9.9791, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 0.6066, "weight_share": 0.0016, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7075, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 9.9791, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "opponent_faced": "Anthony Gordon", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0161, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0161, "provider_weight": 0.013, "squad_weight_total": 0.4059, "weight_share": 0.0319, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Mario Martín": { "player_id": 1154549, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 177, "market_value": 10700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "assist_rate": 0.0537, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0648, "goal_rate": 0.169, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7528, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 38, "possession_lost": 9.5873, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 1.4286, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 24.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7722, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.295, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0627, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0326, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1509, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416336.0, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0527, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416326.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1854, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348.0, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.069, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047.0, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3754, "combined_rank_score": 1748.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 2918.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7528, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mario Martín", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Iván Balliu", "ranking": 3749 }, { "player_name": "Rob Schoofs", "ranking": 3750 }, { "player_name": "Ezequiel Piovi", "ranking": 3751 }, { "player_name": "Patrick Pflücke", "ranking": 3752 }, { "player_name": "Junya Ito", "ranking": 3753 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Doğucan Haspolat", "ranking": 3755 }, { "player_name": "Thiago Fernández", "ranking": 3756 }, { "player_name": "Jarne Steuckers", "ranking": 3757 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Gomes", "ranking": 3758 }, { "player_name": "Myrto Uzuni", "ranking": 3759 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.507, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.507, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0092, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 65.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0467 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Getafe, rel: 0.05, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0397, "assist_rate": 0.0541, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1524, "goal_rate": 0.2205, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7528, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 38, "possession_lost": 9.5, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:02:07.046807+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 550, "rows": 13779 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 87.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.6146, "expectedAssists": 0.0186, "creative_index": 0.1179, "creative_efficiency": 0.003, "shotValueNormalized": -0.1563, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.0966 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6778981685638428, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.12 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0959 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0425 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9267, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.1279 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0877 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0537 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0372 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0294 } ], "others": -0.0203, "total": 0.6779, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.076148, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.148499 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.116363 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.072842 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.049805 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.04128 } ], "others_margin": -0.029506 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03973861411213875, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.118 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0768 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0579 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0318 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0028 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0025 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0021 } ], "others": -0.0057, "total": 0.0397, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439192, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.454013 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.052154 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.051143 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.05079 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.044945 } ], "others_margin": -0.133192 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.05412914231419563, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0669 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0465 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0404 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0851, "items": [ { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0017 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.001 } ], "others": -0.0034, "total": 0.0541, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.463441, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.158432 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.118156 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.068441 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": -0.02895 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.017239 } ], "others_margin": -0.061724 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.15235520899295807, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.082 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0344 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1826, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0078 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0042 } ], "others": -0.0026, "total": 0.1524, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.700309, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.073405 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.069478 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.048256 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.042321 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.026988 } ], "others_margin": -0.017296 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.22054925560951233, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0879 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0676 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0294 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1479, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0625 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0117 } ], "others": 0.0234, "total": 0.2205, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.911166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.352424 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.132493 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.062554 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "margin": 0.062053 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.057784 } ], "others_margin": 0.112777 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.4213004410266876, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1114 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.033 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3374, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0526 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": 0.0218, "total": 0.4213, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.086396, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.144896 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": 0.0419 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.032195 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.025681 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.024461 } ], "others_margin": 0.053138 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.4986004410266875, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1236 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0751 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.0381, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.345 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0486 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0395 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0331 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0241 } ], "others": 0.0492, "total": 1.4986, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.038069, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.345042 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.048578 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.039549 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.033112 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.024056 } ], "others_margin": 0.049266 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.752752304077148, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0666 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0305 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8598, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0424 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0256 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0188 } ], "others": -0.0591, "total": 6.7528, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.859756, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.042429 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.028328 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.027032 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.025639 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.018833 } ], "others_margin": -0.059063 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0092, quality 0.531)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "assist_rate": 0.0546, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1538, "goal_rate": 0.2226, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 6.7528, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 38, "possession_lost": 9.5873, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10700000, "quality_factor": 0.5306, "boost_factor": 1.0092 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0169)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "assist_rate": 0.0537, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1538, "goal_rate": 0.2188, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7528, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 38, "possession_lost": 9.5873, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 1.4286, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 24.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0169, "history_matches": 4, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 2.523, "after": 2.5768 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0482 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.5124, "after": 1.4869 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0241 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4252, "after": 0.418 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "assist_rate": 0.0537, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1538, "goal_rate": 0.2188, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 6.7528, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 38, "possession_lost": 9.5873, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 1.4286, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 24.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "assist_rate": 0.0537, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1188, "goal_rate": 0.169, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7528, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 38, "possession_lost": 9.5873, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 1.4286, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 24.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7722, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.295, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.295, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.7722, "skill_edge": -0.159, "height_edge": 0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.5444, "defender_skill": 0.8977, "xg_override": 0.1188 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.5052, "after": 1.1623 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.0872, "after": 0.8395 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.418, "after": 0.3228 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2188, "after": 0.169 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1538, "after": 0.1188 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 1.1918, xG scale 0.5454, xA scale 0.8249, team xA 0.42 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "assist_rate": 0.0537, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0648, "goal_rate": 0.169, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7528, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 38, "possession_lost": 9.5873, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 1.4286, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 24.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7722, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.295, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1509 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1918, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5122, "team_expected_assists": 0.4225, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.5454, "xa_scale": 0.8249, "opponent_lambda": 3.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1188, "after": 0.0648 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0401, "after": 0.0331 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "assist_rate": 0.0537, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0648, "goal_rate": 0.169, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7528, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 38, "possession_lost": 9.5873, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 1.4286, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 24.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7722, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.295, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1509, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3754, "fifa_rank": 2918.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "assist_rate": 0.0537, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0648, "goal_rate": 0.169, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7528, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 38, "possession_lost": 9.5873, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 1.4286, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 24.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7722, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.295, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0627, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1509, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0627, "scorer_weight": 0.081, "squad_weight_total": 0.6066, "weight_share": 0.1335, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "assist_rate": 0.0537, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0648, "goal_rate": 0.169, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7528, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 38, "possession_lost": 9.5873, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 1.4286, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 24.1, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7722, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.295, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0627, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0326, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1509, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0326, "provider_weight": 0.0381, "squad_weight_total": 0.4059, "weight_share": 0.0939, "creation_factor": 1.1509, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Orel Mangala": { "player_id": 793988, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 178, "market_value": 8600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.029, "assist_rate": 0.0489, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0445, "goal_rate": 0.0445, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6955, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 36, "possession_lost": 5.1491, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 99.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7601, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.287, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0435, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0286, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.1622, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416303.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336.0, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0173, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "interceptions": 4, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416326.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348.0, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0625, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 45, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0435, "expected_assists": 0.018, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047.0, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0598, "expected_assists": 0.0119, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3486, "combined_rank_score": 1474.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 2250.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6955, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Orel Mangala", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jonathan Clauss", "ranking": 3481 }, { "player_name": "Philipp Köhn", "ranking": 3482 }, { "player_name": "Leandro González Pírez", "ranking": 3483 }, { "player_name": "Mahdi Camara", "ranking": 3484 }, { "player_name": "Saud Abdulhamid", "ranking": 3485 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lassine Sinayoko", "ranking": 3487 }, { "player_name": "Tyrhys Dolan", "ranking": 3488 }, { "player_name": "Yann Gboho", "ranking": 3489 }, { "player_name": "Ansu Fati", "ranking": 3490 }, { "player_name": "Marcus Edwards", "ranking": 3491 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.718, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.718, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0018, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 269.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 7 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Getafe, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0516, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1072, "goal_rate": 0.0618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6955, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 36, "possession_lost": 5.14, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:02:07.046807+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 550, "rows": 13779 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.2965, "expectedAssists": 0.0134, "creative_index": 0.1179, "creative_efficiency": 0.0057, "shotValueNormalized": 0.002, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.1024 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5519863963127136, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.12 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0959 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0425 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9267, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.1319 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.1025 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0393 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0318 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.028 } ], "others": -0.0412, "total": 0.552, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.076148, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.153589 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.138078 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.058449 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.049922 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.046181 } ], "others_margin": -0.071865 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.0350688099861145, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.118 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0768 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0579 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0024 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0016 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0014 } ], "others": -0.0082, "total": 0.0351, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439192, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.521631 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.059988 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.050841 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.03595 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.032558 } ], "others_margin": -0.210283 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.05164056271314621, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0669 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0465 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0404 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0851, "items": [ { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0022 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": -0.0049, "total": 0.0516, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.463441, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.167417 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.116554 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.058677 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": -0.036833 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.028821 } ], "others_margin": -0.091704 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.10718894749879837, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.082 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0344 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1826, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0322 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0052 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0045 } ], "others": -0.016, "total": 0.1072, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.700309, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.193931 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "margin": -0.070669 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.053037 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.040202 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.035534 } ], "others_margin": -0.139482 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.0618368498980999, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0879 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0676 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0294 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1479, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0422 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0103, "total": 0.0618, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.911166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.33595 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.224403 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": -0.083965 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "margin": -0.039491 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.03526 } ], "others_margin": -0.15302 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.17116409540176392, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1114 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.033 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3374, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1214 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.006 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0051 } ], "others": -0.0159, "total": 0.1712, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.086396, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.445892 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.084172 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": -0.054967 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.032543 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.027558 } ], "others_margin": -0.088721 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6146640954017639, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1236 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0751 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.0381, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2704 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0389 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0387 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0349 } ], "others": -0.073, "total": 0.6146, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.038069, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.270368 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.038884 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.0387 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.037425 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.03493 } ], "others_margin": -0.073001 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.695494651794434, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0666 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0305 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8598, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0452 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0324 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0521, "total": 6.6955, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.859756, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.045192 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.032446 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.017024 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.008879 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008682 } ], "others_margin": -0.052035 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0018, quality 0.506)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0517, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1074, "goal_rate": 0.0619, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6955, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 36, "possession_lost": 5.1491, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8600000, "quality_factor": 0.5059, "boost_factor": 1.0018 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0542)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0489, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1074, "goal_rate": 0.0585, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6955, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 36, "possession_lost": 5.1491, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 99.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -1.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0542, "history_matches": 7, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.1264 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0903 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0903 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0361 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6158, "after": 0.6366 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1715, "after": 0.1622 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0489, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1074, "goal_rate": 0.0585, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6955, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 36, "possession_lost": 5.1491, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 99.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0489, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0816, "goal_rate": 0.0445, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6955, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 36, "possession_lost": 5.1491, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 99.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7601, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.287, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.287, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.7601, "skill_edge": -0.1712, "height_edge": 0.008, "attacker_skill": 0.5172, "defender_skill": 0.8977, "xg_override": 0.0816 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6366, "after": 0.4839 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4443, "after": 0.3377 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1622, "after": 0.1233 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1074, "after": 0.0816 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0585, "after": 0.0445 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 1.1918, xG scale 0.5454, xA scale 0.8249, team xA 0.42 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.029, "assist_rate": 0.0489, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0445, "goal_rate": 0.0445, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6955, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 36, "possession_lost": 5.1491, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 99.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7601, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.287, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.1622 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1918, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5122, "team_expected_assists": 0.4225, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.5454, "xa_scale": 0.8249, "opponent_lambda": 3.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0816, "after": 0.0445 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0351, "after": 0.029 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.029, "assist_rate": 0.0489, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0445, "goal_rate": 0.0445, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6955, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 36, "possession_lost": 5.1491, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 99.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7601, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.287, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.1622, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3486, "fifa_rank": 2250.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.029, "assist_rate": 0.0489, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0445, "goal_rate": 0.0445, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6955, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 36, "possession_lost": 5.1491, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 99.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7601, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.287, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0435, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.1622, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0435, "scorer_weight": 0.0356, "squad_weight_total": 0.6066, "weight_share": 0.0587, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.029, "assist_rate": 0.0489, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0445, "goal_rate": 0.0445, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6955, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 36, "possession_lost": 5.1491, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3333, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 99.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7601, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.287, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0435, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0286, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.1622, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0286, "provider_weight": 0.0337, "squad_weight_total": 0.4059, "weight_share": 0.083, "creation_factor": 1.1622, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Ramón Terrats": { "player_id": 1088565, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 179, "market_value": 3200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1155, "assist_rate": 0.0865, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0916, "goal_rate": 0.1579, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.0671, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 48, "possession_lost": 11.1258, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 58, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 20.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 99.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7172, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Dani Olmo", "opponent_faced": "Dani Olmo", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0875, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1091, "finishing_factor": 0.9537, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416303.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0426, "expected_assists": 0.2153, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": "16416336.0", "match_date": "2026-09-17 17:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": "100", "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": "True", "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416326.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3592, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348.0, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1452, "expected_assists": 0.1317, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2856, "expected_assists": 0.3853, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1121, "expected_assists": 0.1731, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047.0, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0468, "expected_assists": 0.1616, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 467, "combined_rank_score": 328.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 278.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 379.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0671, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ramón Terrats", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Hans Vanaken", "ranking": 462 }, { "player_name": "Asier Bonel", "ranking": 463 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Navarro", "ranking": 464 }, { "player_name": "Jae Won Hwang", "ranking": 465 }, { "player_name": "Gjoko Zajkov", "ranking": 466 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Igor Formiga", "ranking": 468 }, { "player_name": "Anthony Caceres", "ranking": 469 }, { "player_name": "James Garner", "ranking": 470 }, { "player_name": "Marcus Rashford", "ranking": 471 }, { "player_name": "João Cancelo", "ranking": 472 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.655, "history_matches": 6, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 6, "data_confidence": 0.655, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.982, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 269.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 3.35, "shots_on_target_pct": 20.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 6 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Getafe, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1425, "assist_rate": 0.0935, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2385, "goal_rate": 0.2383, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.0671, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 49, "possession_lost": 11.33, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:02:07.046807+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 550, "rows": 13779 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2408, "rating": 8.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2047, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.174, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 2.7519, "expectedAssists": 0.1749, "creative_index": 0.7933, "creative_efficiency": 0.0927, "shotValueNormalized": -0.1127, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.2338 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.27068030834198, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.12 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0959 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0425 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9267, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1158 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0674 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0664 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0376 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0337 } ], "others": 0.0231, "total": 1.2707, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.076148, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.117771 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.062616 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.058115 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.03144 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.02738 } ], "others_margin": 0.018378 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.14254388213157654, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.118 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0768 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0579 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0252 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0068 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0039 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.004 } ], "others": 0.0199, "total": 0.1425, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439192, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.253536 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.058371 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.038214 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.033681 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.032842 } ], "others_margin": 0.150872 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.09354269504547119, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0669 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0465 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0404 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0851, "items": [ { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0079 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0072 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0032 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0032 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0024 } ], "others": -0.0043, "total": 0.0935, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.463441, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.088856 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.074627 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.031656 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.030991 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.024373 } ], "others_margin": -0.04567 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.2384740710258484, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.082 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0344 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1826, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.058 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": 0.0072 } ], "others": 0.0057, "total": 0.2385, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.700309, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.275613 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.075893 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.057167 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.045673 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "margin": 0.031569 } ], "others_margin": 0.024032 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.238338902592659, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0879 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0676 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0294 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1479, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0742 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0269 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0102 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.0089 } ], "others": 0.0329, "total": 0.2383, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.911166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.406722 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.128968 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.050918 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": 0.042355 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": -0.042291 } ], "others_margin": 0.148368 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.7356734275817871, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1114 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.033 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3374, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2323 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.0404 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0333 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0197 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0201 } ], "others": 0.0525, "total": 0.7357, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.086396, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.523753 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": 0.068481 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.053171 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.03014 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.029791 } ], "others_margin": 0.074091 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.8443734275817871, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1236 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0751 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.0381, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.655 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0512 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0492 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0358 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0256 } ], "others": 0.061, "total": 1.8443, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.038069, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.65498 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.051166 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.049177 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.035791 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.02565 } ], "others_margin": 0.061076 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.0671234130859375, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0666 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0305 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8598, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0533 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0403 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.031 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0195 } ], "others": 0.0418, "total": 7.0671, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.859756, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.053252 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.040292 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.031005 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.021357 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.019542 } ], "others_margin": 0.041919 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9820, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.14, "assist_rate": 0.0919, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2342, "goal_rate": 0.234, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.0671, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 48, "possession_lost": 11.1258, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 58, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3200000, "quality_factor": 0.4399, "boost_factor": 0.982 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0591)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.14, "assist_rate": 0.0865, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2342, "goal_rate": 0.2202, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.0671, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 48, "possession_lost": 11.1258, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 58, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 20.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 99.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -1.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0591, "history_matches": 6, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.2561 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0985 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.8111, "after": 1.902 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 2.779, "after": 2.8118 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0197 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0197 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.234, "after": 0.2202 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.0919, "after": 0.0865 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.14, "assist_rate": 0.0865, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2342, "goal_rate": 0.2202, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.0671, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 48, "possession_lost": 11.1258, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 58, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 20.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 99.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.14, "assist_rate": 0.0865, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.168, "goal_rate": 0.1579, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.0671, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 48, "possession_lost": 11.1258, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 58, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 20.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 99.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7172, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Dani Olmo", "opponent_faced": "Dani Olmo", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Dani Olmo", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.7172, "skill_edge": -0.1924, "height_edge": 0.0, "attacker_skill": 0.4569, "defender_skill": 0.8844, "xg_override": 0.168 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.902, "after": 1.3641 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.0887, "after": 0.7808 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7193, "after": 0.5159 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2342, "after": 0.168 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2202, "after": 0.1579 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 1.1918, xG scale 0.5454, xA scale 0.8249, team xA 0.42 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1155, "assist_rate": 0.0865, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0916, "goal_rate": 0.1579, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.0671, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 48, "possession_lost": 11.1258, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 58, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 20.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 99.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7172, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Dani Olmo", "opponent_faced": "Dani Olmo", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9537, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1918, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5122, "team_expected_assists": 0.4225, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.5454, "xa_scale": 0.8249, "opponent_lambda": 3.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.168, "after": 0.0916 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.14, "after": 0.1155 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1155, "assist_rate": 0.0865, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0916, "goal_rate": 0.1579, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.0671, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 48, "possession_lost": 11.1258, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 58, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 20.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 99.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7172, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Dani Olmo", "opponent_faced": "Dani Olmo", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9537, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 467, "fifa_rank": 379.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1155, "assist_rate": 0.0865, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0916, "goal_rate": 0.1579, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.0671, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 48, "possession_lost": 11.1258, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 58, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 20.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 99.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7172, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Dani Olmo", "opponent_faced": "Dani Olmo", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0875, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9537, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0875, "scorer_weight": 0.0874, "squad_weight_total": 0.6066, "weight_share": 0.144, "finishing_factor": 0.9537, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1155, "assist_rate": 0.0865, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0916, "goal_rate": 0.1579, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.0671, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 48, "possession_lost": 11.1258, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 58, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 20.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 99.6, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7172, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Dani Olmo", "opponent_faced": "Dani Olmo", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0875, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1091, "finishing_factor": 0.9537, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1091, "provider_weight": 0.0924, "squad_weight_total": 0.4059, "weight_share": 0.2277, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Francho Serrano": { "player_id": 1000676, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 177, "market_value": 3100000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.047, "assist_rate": 0.0593, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0409, "goal_rate": 0.0703, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.794, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 34, "possession_lost": 6.4786, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7189, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.229, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Raphinha", "opponent_faced": "Raphinha", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0401, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0459, "finishing_factor": 0.9624, "creation_factor": 1.0215, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416303.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0955, "expected_assists": 0.1001, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336.0, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416326.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0098, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0184, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2420, "combined_rank_score": 893.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 873.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.55, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 913.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.794, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Francho Serrano", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bastián Ubal", "ranking": 2415 }, { "player_name": "Kim Ji-hun", "ranking": 2416 }, { "player_name": "Ayoub El Hmidi", "ranking": 2417 }, { "player_name": "Tommaso Benvenuti", "ranking": 2418 }, { "player_name": "Mukhammadali Giyosov", "ranking": 2419 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bryan Reyna", "ranking": 2421 }, { "player_name": "Ronaldo De Jesus", "ranking": 2422 }, { "player_name": "Kingsley Sokari", "ranking": 2423 }, { "player_name": "Muhammadayub Omonov", "ranking": 2424 }, { "player_name": "Ángel Mena", "ranking": 2425 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.581, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.581, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9816, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 165.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.12 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 5 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Getafe, rel: 0.12, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0581, "assist_rate": 0.0628, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1062, "goal_rate": 0.1038, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.794, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 34, "possession_lost": 6.6, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:02:07.046807+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 550, "rows": 13779 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.7341, "expectedAssists": 0.0354, "creative_index": 0.0213, "creative_efficiency": 0.0, "shotValueNormalized": -0.0428, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.1069 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5440081357955933, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.12 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0959 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0425 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9267, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.1658 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.1106 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0281 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0264 } ], "others": -0.0185, "total": 0.544, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.076148, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.197125 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.157012 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.052505 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.046583 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": -0.04581 } ], "others_margin": -0.033607 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.05811748281121254, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.118 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0768 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0579 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0035 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0028 } ], "others": -0.0054, "total": 0.0581, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439192, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.205465 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.066299 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.055335 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.053649 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.042418 } ], "others_margin": -0.090228 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.06281893700361252, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0669 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0465 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0404 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0851, "items": [ { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.003 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0028 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0039, "total": 0.0628, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.463441, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.146234 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.071792 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.043236 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.040652 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": -0.027353 } ], "others_margin": -0.061261 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.10623715072870255, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.082 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0344 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1826, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0435 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0028 } ], "others": -0.0065, "total": 0.1062, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.700309, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.271865 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.081544 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.068056 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.03672 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.024108 } ], "others_margin": -0.059481 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.10375521332025528, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0879 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0676 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0294 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1479, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0294 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.0053 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": 0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0036, "total": 0.1038, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.911166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.221225 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.143389 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.050732 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.04855 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "margin": 0.042833 } ], "others_margin": -0.034957 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.21546810865402222, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1114 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.033 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3374, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.129 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.0054 } ], "others": -0.0083, "total": 0.2155, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.086396, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.481735 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": 0.049748 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.037955 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.035494 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.024469 } ], "others_margin": -0.038568 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8686681086540222, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1236 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0751 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.0381, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1544 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0525 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0341 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0317 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0292 } ], "others": 0.0274, "total": 0.8686, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.038069, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.154417 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.052519 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.034055 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.031659 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.02925 } ], "others_margin": 0.027442 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.793966770172119, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0666 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0305 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8598, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0262 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0207 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0102 } ], "others": -0.0639, "total": 6.794, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.859756, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.026962 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.026247 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.020736 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011585 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.010168 } ], "others_margin": -0.064057 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9816, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.057, "assist_rate": 0.0617, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1043, "goal_rate": 0.1018, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.794, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 34, "possession_lost": 6.4786, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3100000, "quality_factor": 0.4387, "boost_factor": 0.9816 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0390)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.057, "assist_rate": 0.0593, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1043, "goal_rate": 0.0978, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.794, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 34, "possession_lost": 6.4786, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.039, "history_matches": 5, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.1083 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.065 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8527, "after": 0.8194 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0217 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0217 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0217 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2115, "after": 0.2033 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.057, "assist_rate": 0.0593, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1043, "goal_rate": 0.0978, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.794, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 34, "possession_lost": 6.4786, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.057, "assist_rate": 0.0593, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.075, "goal_rate": 0.0703, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.794, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 34, "possession_lost": 6.4786, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7189, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.229, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Raphinha", "opponent_faced": "Raphinha", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Raphinha", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "duel_win_rate": 0.229, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.7189, "skill_edge": -0.1952, "height_edge": 0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.4551, "defender_skill": 0.889, "xg_override": 0.075 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8445, "after": 0.6072 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6412, "after": 0.461 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2033, "after": 0.1462 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1043, "after": 0.075 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0978, "after": 0.0703 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 1.1918, xG scale 0.5454, xA scale 0.8249, team xA 0.42 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.047, "assist_rate": 0.0593, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0409, "goal_rate": 0.0703, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.794, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 34, "possession_lost": 6.4786, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7189, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.229, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Raphinha", "opponent_faced": "Raphinha", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9624, "creation_factor": 1.0215 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1918, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5122, "team_expected_assists": 0.4225, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.5454, "xa_scale": 0.8249, "opponent_lambda": 3.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.075, "after": 0.0409 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.057, "after": 0.047 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.047, "assist_rate": 0.0593, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0409, "goal_rate": 0.0703, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.794, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 34, "possession_lost": 6.4786, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7189, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.229, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Raphinha", "opponent_faced": "Raphinha", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9624, "creation_factor": 1.0215, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2420, "fifa_rank": 913.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.047, "assist_rate": 0.0593, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0409, "goal_rate": 0.0703, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.794, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 34, "possession_lost": 6.4786, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7189, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.229, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Raphinha", "opponent_faced": "Raphinha", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0401, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9624, "creation_factor": 1.0215, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0401, "scorer_weight": 0.0394, "squad_weight_total": 0.6066, "weight_share": 0.0649, "finishing_factor": 0.9624, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.047, "assist_rate": 0.0593, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0409, "goal_rate": 0.0703, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.794, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 34, "possession_lost": 6.4786, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 61.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7189, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.229, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Raphinha", "opponent_faced": "Raphinha", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0401, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0459, "finishing_factor": 0.9624, "creation_factor": 1.0215, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0459, "provider_weight": 0.048, "squad_weight_total": 0.4059, "weight_share": 0.1183, "creation_factor": 1.0215, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Christantus Uche": { "player_id": 1884145, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 190, "market_value": 13200000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1231, "goal_rate": 0.1406, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0808, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.9, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.09, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0938, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 5, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8268, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí, Jules Koundé", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí, Jules Koundé", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1158, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0776, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9459, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3346, "combined_rank_score": 1296.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 199.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 2393.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Christantus Uche", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Musa Barrow", "ranking": 3341 }, { "player_name": "Mailson", "ranking": 3342 }, { "player_name": "Lautaro Blanco", "ranking": 3343 }, { "player_name": "Mourad Batna", "ranking": 3344 }, { "player_name": "Musab Al Juwair", "ranking": 3345 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Yerry Mina", "ranking": 3347 }, { "player_name": "Ángel Correa", "ranking": 3348 }, { "player_name": "Patrik Hrošovský", "ranking": 3349 }, { "player_name": "Aníbal Moreno", "ranking": 3350 }, { "player_name": "Morato", "ranking": 3351 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.5593, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Market-value baseline (€13,200,000) applied for position F (quality factor 0.56)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position F (quality 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.273, "goal_rate": 0.17, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.098, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.9, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.09, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.208, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 5 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13200000, "quality_factor": 0.5593 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.273, "goal_rate": 0.17, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.098, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.9, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.09, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.208, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 5 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2257, "goal_rate": 0.1406, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.098, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.9, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.09, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.172, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 5, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8268, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí, Jules Koundé", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí, Jules Koundé", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí, Jules Koundé", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.8268, "skill_edge": -0.1498, "height_edge": 0.032, "attacker_skill": 0.5593, "defender_skill": 0.8921, "xg_override": 0.2257 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.7, "after": 2.2324 }, { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.7, "after": 2.0 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.5, "after": 1.2402 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.0, "after": 0.8268 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.273, "after": 0.2257 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.208, "after": 0.172 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.17, "after": 0.1406 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.16, "after": 0.1323 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 1.1918, xG scale 0.5454, xA scale 0.8249, team xA 0.42 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1231, "goal_rate": 0.1406, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0808, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.9, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.09, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0938, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 5, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8268, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí, Jules Koundé", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí, Jules Koundé", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9459 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1918, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5122, "team_expected_assists": 0.4225, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.5454, "xa_scale": 0.8249, "opponent_lambda": 3.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2257, "after": 0.1231 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.098, "after": 0.0808 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1231, "goal_rate": 0.1406, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0808, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.9, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.09, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0938, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 5, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8268, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí, Jules Koundé", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí, Jules Koundé", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9459, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3346, "fifa_rank": 2393.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1231, "goal_rate": 0.1406, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0808, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.9, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.09, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0938, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 5, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8268, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí, Jules Koundé", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí, Jules Koundé", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1158, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9459, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1158, "scorer_weight": 0.0985, "squad_weight_total": 0.6066, "weight_share": 0.1623, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1231, "goal_rate": 0.1406, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0808, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 44, "possession_lost": 8.9, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.09, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0938, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 5, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8268, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí, Jules Koundé", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí, Jules Koundé", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1158, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0776, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9459, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0776, "provider_weight": 0.0764, "squad_weight_total": 0.4059, "weight_share": 0.1883, "creation_factor": 0.9459, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Martín Satriano": { "player_id": 973536, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 187, "market_value": 10600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1204, "goal_rate": 0.1887, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.777, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 32, "possession_lost": 12.2474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1343, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 16.7, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 91.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7738, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.296, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1134, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0345, "finishing_factor": 0.8818, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416303.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.052, "expected_assists": 0.0819, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336.0, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0183, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416326.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0557, "expected_assists": 0.1454, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348.0, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2666, "expected_assists": 0.0048, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2807, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0667, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047.0, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0342, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 10, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3117, "combined_rank_score": 1079.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 583.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7944, "sofascore_appearances": 18.0, "fifa_rank": 1576.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.777, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Martín Satriano", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Tsuyoshi Watanabe", "ranking": 3112 }, { "player_name": "Arnau Martínez", "ranking": 3113 }, { "player_name": "Ayase Ueda", "ranking": 3114 }, { "player_name": "Mika Godts", "ranking": 3115 }, { "player_name": "Youri Baas", "ranking": 3116 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Marcos Leonardo", "ranking": 3118 }, { "player_name": "Chidera Ejuke", "ranking": 3119 }, { "player_name": "Adrián Martínez", "ranking": 3120 }, { "player_name": "Emile Smith Rowe", "ranking": 3121 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Giménez", "ranking": 3122 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.715, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.715, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0088, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 246.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.2, "shots_on_target_pct": 16.7, "prior_reliability": 0.18 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 7 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Getafe, rel: 0.18, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2827, "goal_rate": 0.2542, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.777, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 32, "possession_lost": 12.14, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.14, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:02:15.441175+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 325, "rows": 6303 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 6.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3784, "totalShots": 1.9186, "minutesPlayed": 76.8957, "shotValueNormalized": -0.1139, "accuratePass": 9.8296, "expectedAssists": 0.0475 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.2826605439186096, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0826 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0724 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0352 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3626, "items": [ { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0738 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0207 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0176, "total": 0.2827, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.014464, "item_margins": [ { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.227455 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.069238 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.034164 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.033577 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.0307 } ], "others_margin": -0.060715 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.254158079624176, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1258 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0323 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2866, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0424 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": 0.0106, "total": 0.2542, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.249595, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.160011 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.093682 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.084471 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.044602 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": -0.037996 } ], "others_margin": 0.04241 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5465211868286133, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1486 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "importance": 0.0618 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5888, "items": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.1232 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0846 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0286 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0177 } ], "others": 0.0038, "total": 0.5465, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.52966, "item_margins": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.234742 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.167031 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.050613 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.032274 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.032139 } ], "others_margin": 0.006991 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.8913211868286133, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.1122 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0872 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0825 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0566 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.4352, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.2037 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1628 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0502 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0466 } ], "others": 0.0297, "total": 1.8913, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.435195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.203745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.16282 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.056296 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.05016 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.046603 } ], "others_margin": 0.02968 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04223807528614998, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1197 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0571 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0369 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.06, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0054 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0024 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0022 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0022 } ], "others": -0.0074, "total": 0.0422, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.812623, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.095008 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.048668 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.047156 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.043045 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.042843 } ], "others_margin": -0.161181 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6326157450675964, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1105 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0444 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0409 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6782, "items": [ { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0478 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0138 } ], "others": 0.0042, "total": 0.6326, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.388283, "item_margins": [ { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.073134 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.025899 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.023816 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.023338 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.022184 } ], "others_margin": 0.006762 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7769575119018555, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0724 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0438 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.815, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.039 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0344 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": -0.0126, "total": 6.777, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.814961, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.038973 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.034362 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.021053 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.00891 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008594 } ], "others_margin": -0.012656 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0088, quality 0.529)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2852, "goal_rate": 0.2564, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.777, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 32, "possession_lost": 12.2474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1412, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10600000, "quality_factor": 0.5295, "boost_factor": 1.0088 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0488)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2852, "goal_rate": 0.2439, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.777, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 32, "possession_lost": 12.2474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1343, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 16.7, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 91.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -0.37 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0488, "history_matches": 7, "prior_reliability": 0.18, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.1444 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.8765, "after": 1.8572 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0181 }, { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0181 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.9081, "after": 1.9223 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2564, "after": 0.2439 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5514, "after": 0.5426 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.1412, "after": 0.1343 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2852, "goal_rate": 0.2439, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.777, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 32, "possession_lost": 12.2474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1343, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 16.7, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 91.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2207, "goal_rate": 0.1887, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.777, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 32, "possession_lost": 12.2474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1343, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 16.7, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 91.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7738, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.296, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "duel_win_rate": 0.296, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.7738, "skill_edge": -0.1659, "height_edge": 0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.5295, "defender_skill": 0.8981, "xg_override": 0.2207 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.9223, "after": 1.4875 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3567, "after": 1.0498 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5426, "after": 0.4199 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2852, "after": 0.2207 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2439, "after": 0.1887 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 1.1918, xG scale 0.5454, xA scale 0.8249, team xA 0.42 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1204, "goal_rate": 0.1887, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.777, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 32, "possession_lost": 12.2474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1343, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 16.7, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 91.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7738, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.296, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8818, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1918, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5122, "team_expected_assists": 0.4225, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.5454, "xa_scale": 0.8249, "opponent_lambda": 3.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2207, "after": 0.1204 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0426, "after": 0.0351 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1204, "goal_rate": 0.1887, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.777, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 32, "possession_lost": 12.2474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1343, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 16.7, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 91.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7738, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.296, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8818, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3117, "fifa_rank": 1576.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1204, "goal_rate": 0.1887, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.777, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 32, "possession_lost": 12.2474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1343, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 16.7, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 91.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7738, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.296, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1134, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8818, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1134, "scorer_weight": 0.1062, "squad_weight_total": 0.6066, "weight_share": 0.175, "finishing_factor": 0.8818, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1204, "goal_rate": 0.1887, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.777, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 32, "possession_lost": 12.2474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1343, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 16.7, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 91.1, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7738, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.296, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1134, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0345, "finishing_factor": 0.8818, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0345, "provider_weight": 0.0439, "squad_weight_total": 0.4059, "weight_share": 0.1081, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Enes Ünal": { "player_id": 336655, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 185, "market_value": 6800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1198, "goal_rate": 0.1947, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7054, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 30, "possession_lost": 12.371, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "yellowCards": 0.4, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.25, "minutesPct": 83.3, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7321, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1129, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.024, "finishing_factor": 0.9073, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416303.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1533, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336.0, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0057, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416326.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0392, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348.0, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0286, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.965, "expected_assists": 0.0057, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047.0, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0861, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 11, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3539, "combined_rank_score": 1506.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 822.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 2191.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7054, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Enes Ünal", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Hugo Álvarez", "ranking": 3534 }, { "player_name": "Israel Reyes", "ranking": 3535 }, { "player_name": "Rocco Reitz", "ranking": 3536 }, { "player_name": "Chrislain Matsima", "ranking": 3537 }, { "player_name": "Yan Couto", "ranking": 3538 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Issa Diop", "ranking": 3540 }, { "player_name": "Senne Lynen", "ranking": 3541 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Camello", "ranking": 3542 }, { "player_name": "Mio Backhaus", "ranking": 3543 }, { "player_name": "Jindřich Staněk", "ranking": 3544 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.713, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.713, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9953, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 225.0, "goals_per90": 0.4, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.6, "shots_on_target_pct": 25.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 7 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Getafe, rel: 0.17, gls/90: 0.4, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3015, "goal_rate": 0.2608, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7054, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 30, "possession_lost": 12.43, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:02:15.441175+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 325, "rows": 6303 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3187, "totalShots": 1.4941, "minutesPlayed": 77.8084, "shotValueNormalized": -0.1344, "accuratePass": 9.535, "expectedAssists": 0.0189 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.30153578519821167, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0826 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0724 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0352 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3626, "items": [ { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0676 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.009 } ], "others": -0.0251, "total": 0.3015, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.014464, "item_margins": [ { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.206425 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.069907 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.039082 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.03517 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.027909 } ], "others_margin": -0.079707 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.2608284056186676, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1258 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0323 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2866, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0369 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0321 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0129 } ], "others": 0.0552, "total": 0.2608, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.249595, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.137931 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.137416 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.067032 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.062735 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.060718 } ], "others_margin": 0.23747 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.48799046874046326, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1486 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "importance": 0.0618 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5888, "items": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.1308 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0875 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0296 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0249 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0188 } ], "others": -0.034, "total": 0.488, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.52966, "item_margins": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.251246 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.174813 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.055758 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.047074 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.035324 } ], "others_margin": -0.067358 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.9429304599761963, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.1122 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0872 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0825 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0566 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.4352, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.2296 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2105 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0701 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0454 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0424 } ], "others": -0.0055, "total": 1.9429, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.435195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.229598 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.210488 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.070086 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.045404 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.042365 } ], "others_margin": -0.005475 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.029595166444778442, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1197 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0571 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0369 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.06, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0017 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0017 } ], "others": -0.0095, "total": 0.0296, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.812623, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.29464 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.069852 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.064557 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.045505 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.04403 } ], "others_margin": -0.276997 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5705159306526184, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1105 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0444 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0409 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6782, "items": [ { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.2015 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0326 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0335 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0308 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0212 } ], "others": -0.0243, "total": 0.5705, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.388283, "item_margins": [ { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.352474 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.066227 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.06361 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.055169 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.03628 } ], "others_margin": -0.041742 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.705434799194336, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0724 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0438 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.815, "items": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0433 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0416 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0076, "total": 6.7054, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.814961, "item_margins": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.043263 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.041612 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.023039 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.016355 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010526 } ], "others_margin": -0.007439 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9953, quality 0.484)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3001, "goal_rate": 0.2596, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7054, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 30, "possession_lost": 12.371, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6800000, "quality_factor": 0.4842, "boost_factor": 0.9953 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0451)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3001, "goal_rate": 0.2659, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7054, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 30, "possession_lost": 12.371, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "yellowCards": 0.4, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.25, "minutesPct": 83.3, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -1.2 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0451, "history_matches": 7, "prior_reliability": 0.1667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0903 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0722 }, { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0542 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0361 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0361 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.9337, "after": 1.9186 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2596, "after": 0.2659 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3001, "goal_rate": 0.2659, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7054, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 30, "possession_lost": 12.371, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "yellowCards": 0.4, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.25, "minutesPct": 83.3, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2197, "goal_rate": 0.1947, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7054, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 30, "possession_lost": 12.371, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "yellowCards": 0.4, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.25, "minutesPct": 83.3, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7321, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.7321, "skill_edge": -0.1863, "height_edge": 0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.4842, "defender_skill": 0.8981, "xg_override": 0.2197 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.9298, "after": 1.4128 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.448, "after": 1.0601 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4818, "after": 0.3527 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3001, "after": 0.2197 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2659, "after": 0.1947 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 1.1918, xG scale 0.5454, xA scale 0.8249, team xA 0.42 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1198, "goal_rate": 0.1947, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7054, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 30, "possession_lost": 12.371, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "yellowCards": 0.4, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.25, "minutesPct": 83.3, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7321, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9073, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1918, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5122, "team_expected_assists": 0.4225, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.5454, "xa_scale": 0.8249, "opponent_lambda": 3.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2197, "after": 0.1198 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0295, "after": 0.0243 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1198, "goal_rate": 0.1947, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7054, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 30, "possession_lost": 12.371, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "yellowCards": 0.4, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.25, "minutesPct": 83.3, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7321, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9073, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3539, "fifa_rank": 2191.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1198, "goal_rate": 0.1947, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7054, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 30, "possession_lost": 12.371, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "yellowCards": 0.4, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.25, "minutesPct": 83.3, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7321, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1129, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9073, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1129, "scorer_weight": 0.1087, "squad_weight_total": 0.6066, "weight_share": 0.1792, "finishing_factor": 0.9073, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1198, "goal_rate": 0.1947, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7054, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 30, "possession_lost": 12.371, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "yellowCards": 0.4, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 25.0, "shotConversion": 0.25, "minutesPct": 83.3, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7321, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1129, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.024, "finishing_factor": 0.9073, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.024, "provider_weight": 0.0194, "squad_weight_total": 0.4059, "weight_share": 0.0479, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Jiří Letáček": { "player_id": 826047, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 196, "market_value": 1900000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5396, "combined_rank_score": 3586.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 6955.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jiří Letáček", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mbaye Diagne", "ranking": 5391 }, { "player_name": "Cengiz Ünder", "ranking": 5392 }, { "player_name": "Christopher Opéri", "ranking": 5393 }, { "player_name": "Levent Mercan", "ranking": 5394 }, { "player_name": "Simon Eriksson", "ranking": 5395 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Emin Bayram", "ranking": 5397 }, { "player_name": "Anthony Musaba", "ranking": 5398 }, { "player_name": "Archie Brown", "ranking": 5399 }, { "player_name": "Gift Orban", "ranking": 5400 }, { "player_name": "Semih Kılıçsoy", "ranking": 5401 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.10873737216187492, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4374, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€1,900,000) scaled to 4.4 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position G (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0000)", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0, "history_matches": 0, "prior_reliability": 0.0, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 69.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5396, "fifa_rank": 6955.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 69.0 } } ] }, "Djené": { "player_id": 307702, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 178, "market_value": 1500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.712, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.0565, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.003, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.6897, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 96.3, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.217, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416303.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 27, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336.0, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416326.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348.0, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 18, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0076, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 44, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0057, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047.0, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0507, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 33, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2308, "combined_rank_score": 841.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 842.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5824, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 841.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.712, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Djené", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Václav Černý", "ranking": 2303 }, { "player_name": "Christian Burgess", "ranking": 2304 }, { "player_name": "Sebastián Villa", "ranking": 2305 }, { "player_name": "Hidemasa Morita", "ranking": 2306 }, { "player_name": "Bryan Heynen", "ranking": 2307 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kevin Mac Allister", "ranking": 2309 }, { "player_name": "Bae Hyun-seo", "ranking": 2310 }, { "player_name": "Hervé Koffi", "ranking": 2311 }, { "player_name": "Ifeanyi Eze", "ranking": 2312 }, { "player_name": "Jack Harrison", "ranking": 2313 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.716, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.716, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.572222187561248, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.217, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1933 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (7 historical appearances) to 13.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.22); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.712, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 46, "possession_lost": 7.14, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.02, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 34, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:01:55.523250+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 402, "rows": 11400 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 4.6785, "defensive_actions": 1.8974, "wonTackle": 0.6302, "totalTackle_p90": 0.7454, "totalClearance_p90": 5.3948, "aerialWon": 1.1148 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.6705983877182007, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0903 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0858 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0447 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0364 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2202 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0425 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0347 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0095 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0074 } ], "others": -0.0069, "total": 0.6706, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.101631, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.279326 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.064297 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.052785 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.013985 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.010884 } ], "others_margin": -0.010216 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.1358752250671387, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.1044 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0629 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.045 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0342 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3313, "items": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0774 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0548 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0349 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0163 } ], "others": 0.0141, "total": 1.1359, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.286166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.059904 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.044704 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.029522 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.022657 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.014385 } ], "others_margin": 0.012409 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.6570695042610168, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.1003 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0586 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0501 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0492 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0386 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8256, "items": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.1454 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.033 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0126 } ], "others": 0.013, "total": 0.6571, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.191612, "item_margins": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.193733 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.049766 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.037341 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.022795 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.019338 } ], "others_margin": 0.019937 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.677757740020752, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.138 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0733 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.3876, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -1.1139 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1832 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1014 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0706 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0637 } ], "others": -0.0148, "total": 2.6778, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.220122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.398726 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.0775 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.040427 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.027234 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.023931 } ], "others_margin": -0.005507 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.9545398354530334, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1155 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0659 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "importance": 0.0345 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0335 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0332 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.2696, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4074 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.077 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0572 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0433 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0331 } ], "others": -0.0521, "total": 0.9545, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.238719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.386988 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.085509 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.059148 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.042495 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.032355 } ], "others_margin": -0.053053 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.42103883624076843, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.476, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0515 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0265 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0034, "total": 0.421, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.476045, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.051473 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.02828 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.026494 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.013174 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.011258 } ], "others_margin": -0.003402 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.711976051330566, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0466 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0352 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7578, "items": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0249 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0106 } ], "others": -0.0151, "total": 6.712, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.757789, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.024859 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.018857 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.01506 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010966 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.010578 } ], "others_margin": -0.015211 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.712, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 7.006, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1500000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0524)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.712, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 7.006, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.6897, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 96.3, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -0.35 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0524, "history_matches": 7, "prior_reliability": 0.1933, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0903 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.658, "after": 0.7138 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.4131, "after": 0.3915 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.6447, "after": 0.6651 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0181 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 13.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.22)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.712, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.0565, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.003, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.6897, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 96.3, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.217, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.57, "appearance_probability": 0.217 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.712, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.0565, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.003, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.6897, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 96.3, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.217, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.712, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 1.0565, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.003, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.6897, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 96.3, "pointsPerMatch": 1.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.217, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2308, "fifa_rank": 841.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } } ] }, "Sebastián Boselli": { "player_id": 1392092, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 183, "market_value": 1500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 11, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416336.0, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416326.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.037, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348.0, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047.0, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3818, "combined_rank_score": 1819.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 721.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.68, "sofascore_appearances": 11.0, "fifa_rank": 2917.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.5742, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sebastián Boselli", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "David Møller Wolfe", "ranking": 3813 }, { "player_name": "Sebastian Berhalter", "ranking": 3814 }, { "player_name": "Sheraldo Becker", "ranking": 3815 }, { "player_name": "Hamza Igamane", "ranking": 3816 }, { "player_name": "Ciro Immobile", "ranking": 3817 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Paul Pogba", "ranking": 3819 }, { "player_name": "Geoffrey Kondogbia", "ranking": 3820 }, { "player_name": "Mikey Moore", "ranking": 3821 }, { "player_name": "Laurent Abergel", "ranking": 3822 }, { "player_name": "Zeki Amdouni", "ranking": 3823 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.564, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.564, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 10.51, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.602, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 8.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (5 historical appearances) to 10.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.60); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 8.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:01:55.523250+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 402, "rows": 11400 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 21.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": null }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 5.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 0.8532, "defensive_actions": 1.4156, "wonTackle": 0.728, "totalTackle_p90": 1.6467, "totalClearance_p90": 1.9786, "aerialWon": 0.2696 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.5758006572723389, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0903 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0858 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0447 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0364 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1558 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0657 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0144 } ], "others": -0.0854, "total": 0.5758, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.101631, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.189337 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.092029 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.027051 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.025856 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.021981 } ], "others_margin": -0.13807 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.9956567287445068, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.1044 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0629 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.045 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0342 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3313, "items": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.1191 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0794 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0722 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0545 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0412 } ], "others": -0.128, "total": 0.9957, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.286166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.093708 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.063459 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.057517 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.045692 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.035975 } ], "others_margin": -0.121084 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.5971514582633972, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.1003 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0586 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0501 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0492 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0386 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8256, "items": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.1536 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0282 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": 0.0041, "total": 0.5972, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.191612, "item_margins": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.205856 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.042834 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.039789 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.022078 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.020188 } ], "others_margin": 0.006773 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.5554876327514648, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.138 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0733 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.3876, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.8158 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4287 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.131 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0886 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0615 } ], "others": -0.3065, "total": 1.5555, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.220122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.27552 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.182355 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.063079 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.045058 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.032518 } ], "others_margin": -0.179803 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.3932178318500519, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1155 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0659 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "importance": 0.0345 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0335 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0332 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.2696, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.5454 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1724 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0505 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0193 } ], "others": -0.0671, "total": 0.3932, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.238719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.561324 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.271841 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.096054 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.044188 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.041139 } ], "others_margin": -0.157564 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.23353803157806396, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.476, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0694 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.055 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0423 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0416 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0226 } ], "others": -0.0116, "total": 0.2335, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.476045, "item_margins": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.069383 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.055013 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.042262 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.041629 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.022595 } ], "others_margin": -0.011624 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.574203968048096, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0466 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0352 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7578, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0461 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0799, "total": 6.5742, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.757789, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.046141 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.015739 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.014944 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.01387 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.013087 } ], "others_margin": -0.079802 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1500000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0043)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -11.25 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0043, "history_matches": 5, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 10.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 11, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.51 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 10.51, "appearance_probability": 0.602 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 11, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.51 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 1.1918, xG scale 0.5454, xA scale 0.8249, team xA 0.42 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 11, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1918, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5122, "team_expected_assists": 0.4225, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.5454, "xa_scale": 0.8249, "opponent_lambda": 3.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.602 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 11, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3818, "fifa_rank": 2917.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 11, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 0.6066, "weight_share": 0.0016, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 0.602, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 11, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 0.4059, "weight_share": 0.0025, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 0.602, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Nemanja Gudelj": { "player_id": 68332, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 187, "market_value": 1900000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "assist_rate": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.013, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.2262, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0089, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0072, "finishing_factor": 0.916, "creation_factor": 1.0735, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416303.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0737, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336.0, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0735, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416326.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0098, "expected_assists": 0.1573, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348.0, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0213, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 12, "clearances": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1778, "combined_rank_score": 964.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1231.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7299, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nemanja Gudelj", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jake Grech", "ranking": 1773 }, { "player_name": "Domantas Antanavičius", "ranking": 1774 }, { "player_name": "Emil Tsenov", "ranking": 1775 }, { "player_name": "Maksim Myakish", "ranking": 1776 }, { "player_name": "Jun'ai Byfield", "ranking": 1777 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jon Guridi", "ranking": 1779 }, { "player_name": "Pedro Felipe", "ranking": 1780 }, { "player_name": "Nico Guillén", "ranking": 1781 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Pires", "ranking": 1782 }, { "player_name": "Yuri", "ranking": 1783 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.564, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.564, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.692, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 15.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (5 historical appearances) to 18.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.69); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 15.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0638, "assist_rate": 0.0873, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1206, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 6.2, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:02:07.046807+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 550, "rows": 13779 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.9596, "expectedAssists": 0.054, "creative_index": 0.2182, "creative_efficiency": 0.0505, "shotValueNormalized": -0.0332, "dribbleValueNormalized": -0.0041 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6191627383232117, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.12 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0959 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0425 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9267, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.115 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0975 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0361 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0196 } ], "others": -0.0894, "total": 0.6192, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.076148, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.132483 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.128036 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.049345 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.029966 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.027338 } ], "others_margin": -0.134762 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06380373239517212, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.118 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0768 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0579 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0024 } ], "others": -0.0045, "total": 0.0638, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439192, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.059279 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.055678 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.054034 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.040763 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.033876 } ], "others_margin": -0.069123 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.08729065954685211, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0669 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0465 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0404 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0851, "items": [ { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0054 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0022 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0021 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0014 } ], "others": -0.0034, "total": 0.0873, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.463441, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.136697 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.056812 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": -0.024066 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.023591 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.015393 } ], "others_margin": -0.039087 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.12060797959566116, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.082 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0344 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1826, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0451 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0064 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0062 } ], "others": 0.0003, "total": 0.1206, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.700309, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.28375 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.077152 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "margin": -0.058302 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.052234 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.050293 } ], "others_margin": 0.002362 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.08955459296703339, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0879 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0676 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0294 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1479, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.004 } ], "others": 0.0044, "total": 0.0896, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.911166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.234901 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.153884 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.065478 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.050106 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": -0.045994 } ], "others_margin": 0.048625 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.30647459626197815, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1114 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.033 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3374, "items": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": 0.0016, "total": 0.3065, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.086396, "item_margins": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.06438 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": -0.061523 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.036746 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.034925 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.032412 } ], "others_margin": 0.005001 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8442745962619781, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1236 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0751 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.0381, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0804 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.036 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0335 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0306 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0249 } ], "others": 0.0116, "total": 0.8443, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.038069, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.080393 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.035958 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.033536 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.030649 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.024872 } ], "others_margin": 0.011604 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.729918003082275, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0666 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0305 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8598, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.052 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0601, "total": 6.7299, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.859756, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.052019 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.015781 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.011718 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011061 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.010792 } ], "others_margin": -0.060027 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0857, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1183, "goal_rate": 0.0879, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 6.0836, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0043)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0853, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1183, "goal_rate": 0.0875, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 6.0836, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0043, "history_matches": 5, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8284, "after": 0.8508 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0216 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 18.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "assist_rate": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0238, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.2262, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.14, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "assist_rate": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0238, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.2262, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 1.1918, xG scale 0.5454, xA scale 0.8249, team xA 0.42 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "assist_rate": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.013, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.2262, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.916, "creation_factor": 1.0735 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1918, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5122, "team_expected_assists": 0.4225, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.5454, "xa_scale": 0.8249, "opponent_lambda": 3.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0238, "after": 0.013 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "assist_rate": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.013, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.2262, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.916, "creation_factor": 1.0735, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1778, "fifa_rank": 1231.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "assist_rate": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.013, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.2262, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0089, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.916, "creation_factor": 1.0735, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0089, "scorer_weight": 0.0082, "squad_weight_total": 0.6066, "weight_share": 0.0136, "finishing_factor": 0.916, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "assist_rate": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.013, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.2262, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0089, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0072, "finishing_factor": 0.916, "creation_factor": 1.0735, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0072, "provider_weight": 0.0077, "squad_weight_total": 0.4059, "weight_share": 0.019, "creation_factor": 1.0735, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Oscar Lopez": { "player_id": 1994823, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 180, "market_value": 220000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.006, "assist_rate": 0.0116, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0152, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6954, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416336.0, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348.0, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 474, "combined_rank_score": 239.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 196.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6954, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Oscar Lopez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Anthony Caceres", "ranking": 469 }, { "player_name": "James Garner", "ranking": 470 }, { "player_name": "Marcus Rashford", "ranking": 471 }, { "player_name": "João Cancelo", "ranking": 472 }, { "player_name": "Oh-kyu Kim", "ranking": 473 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Eberechi Eze", "ranking": 475 }, { "player_name": "Hugo Ekitiké", "ranking": 476 }, { "player_name": "Manuel Ángel Castillo", "ranking": 477 }, { "player_name": "Willi Orbán", "ranking": 478 }, { "player_name": "Kuvondik Ruziev", "ranking": 479 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.375, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97222218756125, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.4987373721618749, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (2 historical appearances) to 22.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.50); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.025, "assist_rate": 0.0483, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1156, "goal_rate": 0.0636, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6954, "minutes": 5, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 36, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:02:07.046807+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 550, "rows": 13779 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": null } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0, "expectedAssists": 0.0006, "creative_index": 0.0004, "creative_efficiency": 0.0, "shotValueNormalized": 0.0, "dribbleValueNormalized": 0.0432 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4776404798030853, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.12 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0959 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0425 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9267, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.171 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.1019 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0417 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0291 } ], "others": -0.0691, "total": 0.4776, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.076148, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.20403 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.144861 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.065937 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.061183 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.051871 } ], "others_margin": -0.134867 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.024981165304780006, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.118 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0768 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0579 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0391 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": -0.0047 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0033 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0137, "total": 0.025, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439192, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.593998 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": -0.102237 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.096795 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.088627 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.069928 } ], "others_margin": -0.438711 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.04825615510344505, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0669 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0465 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0404 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0851, "items": [ { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0032 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0024 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0021 } ], "others": -0.0053, "total": 0.0483, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.463441, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.169902 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.158294 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": -0.053648 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.042744 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.037671 } ], "others_margin": -0.105531 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1155676320195198, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.082 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0344 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1826, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.03 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0083 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.006 } ], "others": -0.0204, "total": 0.1156, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.700309, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.179595 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.077401 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.057285 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "margin": -0.051793 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.04289 } ], "others_margin": -0.163198 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.06358782947063446, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0879 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0676 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0294 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1479, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0108, "total": 0.0636, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.911166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.270618 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.216935 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "margin": -0.080166 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": -0.059871 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.058113 } ], "others_margin": -0.158464 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.13952136039733887, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1114 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.033 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3374, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.124 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0358, "total": 0.1395, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.086396, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.457856 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": -0.102772 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.091205 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.052717 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.049948 } ], "others_margin": -0.228539 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.42492136039733885, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1236 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0751 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.0381, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.3567 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0496 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0396 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0329 } ], "others": -0.1011, "total": 0.4249, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.038069, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.356666 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.049578 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.039604 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.033307 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.032892 } ], "others_margin": -0.101101 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.695403099060059, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0666 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0305 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8598, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.048 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0331 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0252 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0673, "total": 6.6954, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.859756, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.048035 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.033096 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.029069 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.025172 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012092 } ], "others_margin": -0.06723 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "assist_rate": 0.0474, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1134, "goal_rate": 0.0624, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6954, "minutes": 5, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 35, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 220000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0000)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "assist_rate": 0.0474, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1134, "goal_rate": 0.0624, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6954, "minutes": 5, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 35, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0, "history_matches": 2, "prior_reliability": 0.0, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 22.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.006, "assist_rate": 0.0116, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0152, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6954, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.97, "appearance_probability": 0.499 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.006, "assist_rate": 0.0116, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0152, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6954, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.006, "assist_rate": 0.0116, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "goal_rate": 0.0152, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6954, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 474, "fifa_rank": 196.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } } ] }, "Borja Mayoral": { "player_id": 604954, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 182, "market_value": 6300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0133, "goal_rate": 0.0204, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.631, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.2892, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 2.2, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.1, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0095, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0019, "finishing_factor": 0.9462, "creation_factor": 0.9416, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416314.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3389, "combined_rank_score": 1361.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 765.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.65, "sofascore_appearances": 16.0, "fifa_rank": 1957.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.631, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Borja Mayoral", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Denis Vavro", "ranking": 3384 }, { "player_name": "Phillipp Mwene", "ranking": 3385 }, { "player_name": "Jesús Rodriguez", "ranking": 3386 }, { "player_name": "Ismael Koné", "ranking": 3387 }, { "player_name": "Tomáš Holeš", "ranking": 3388 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Álex Moreno", "ranking": 3390 }, { "player_name": "Rico Henry", "ranking": 3391 }, { "player_name": "Leo Østigård", "ranking": 3392 }, { "player_name": "Guido Carrillo", "ranking": 3393 }, { "player_name": "Juanlu Sánchez", "ranking": 3394 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.376, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.376, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.1, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.722, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9934, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 3.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (2 historical appearances) to 13.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.72); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 3.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1685, "goal_rate": 0.1416, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.631, "minutes": 5, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 2.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:02:15.441175+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 325, "rows": 6303 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": null } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0, "minutesPlayed": 5.3243, "shotValueNormalized": 0.0, "accuratePass": 0.0, "expectedAssists": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.16848814487457275, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0826 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0724 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0352 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3626, "items": [ { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0773 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0276 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "topSpeed", "contribution": -0.0149 } ], "others": -0.0294, "total": 0.1685, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.014464, "item_margins": [ { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.239826 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.101727 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.09915 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.092625 }, { "name": "topSpeed", "margin": -0.0727 } ], "others_margin": -0.160397 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.14156857132911682, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1258 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0323 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2866, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.042 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0286 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0073 } ], "others": -0.0344, "total": 0.1416, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.249595, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.158353 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.124515 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.110864 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.053059 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.040738 } ], "others_margin": -0.217848 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.27334633469581604, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1486 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "importance": 0.0618 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5888, "items": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.1485 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0952 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0557 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0366 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0158 } ], "others": -0.0751, "total": 0.2733, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.52966, "item_margins": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.29072 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.243702 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.149528 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.095817 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.044361 } ], "others_margin": -0.242283 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.650284469127655, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.1122 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0872 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0825 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0566 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.4352, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2917 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.1304 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0871 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.069 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0556 } ], "others": -0.2623, "total": 0.6503, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.435195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.291736 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.130424 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.087132 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.068977 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.055622 } ], "others_margin": -0.262263 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.021342355757951736, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1197 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0571 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0369 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.06, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0039 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0022 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0019 } ], "others": -0.009, "total": 0.0213, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.812623, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.506666 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.169195 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.120191 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.067225 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.062379 } ], "others_margin": -0.349164 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.36861535906791687, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1105 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0444 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0409 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6782, "items": [ { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.2073 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.045 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.041 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0342 } ], "others": -0.1173, "total": 0.3686, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.388283, "item_margins": [ { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.364889 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.091344 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.083907 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.075791 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.06807 } ], "others_margin": -0.276219 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.630962371826172, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0724 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0438 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.815, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0424 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0268 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0268 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0656, "total": 6.631, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.814961, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.04243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.026805 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.026777 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.012715 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009693 } ], "others_margin": -0.065579 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9934, quality 0.478)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1674, "goal_rate": 0.1406, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.631, "minutes": 5, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 1.9869, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6300000, "quality_factor": 0.4781, "boost_factor": 0.9934 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0031)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1674, "goal_rate": 0.1402, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.631, "minutes": 5, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 1.9869, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 2.2, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0031, "history_matches": 2, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0311 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0311 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 13.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0244, "goal_rate": 0.0204, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.631, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.2892, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 2.2, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.1 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.1, "appearance_probability": 0.722 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0244, "goal_rate": 0.0204, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.631, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.2892, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 2.2, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.1 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 1.1918, xG scale 0.5454, xA scale 0.8249, team xA 0.42 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0133, "goal_rate": 0.0204, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.631, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.2892, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 2.2, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.1, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9462, "creation_factor": 0.9416 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1918, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5122, "team_expected_assists": 0.4225, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.5454, "xa_scale": 0.8249, "opponent_lambda": 3.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.722 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0244, "after": 0.0133 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0133, "goal_rate": 0.0204, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.631, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.2892, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 2.2, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.1, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9462, "creation_factor": 0.9416, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3389, "fifa_rank": 1957.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0133, "goal_rate": 0.0204, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.631, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.2892, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 2.2, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.1, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0095, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9462, "creation_factor": 0.9416, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0095, "scorer_weight": 0.0091, "squad_weight_total": 0.6066, "weight_share": 0.015, "finishing_factor": 0.9462, "appearance_weight": 0.722, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0133, "goal_rate": 0.0204, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.631, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.2892, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 2.2, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.1, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0095, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0019, "finishing_factor": 0.9462, "creation_factor": 0.9416, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0019, "provider_weight": 0.0018, "squad_weight_total": 0.4059, "weight_share": 0.0044, "creation_factor": 0.9416, "appearance_weight": 0.722, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Ivan Azón": { "player_id": 1000696, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 90, "height": 181, "market_value": 5200000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0466, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8025, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.2338, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0698, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.4, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0257, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0078, "finishing_factor": 1.0901, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416303.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3988, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336.0, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.056, "expected_assists": 0.0821, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416326.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0761, "expected_assists": 0.2082, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348.0, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4905, "combined_rank_score": 2997.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 5809.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8025, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ivan Azón", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Gabri Martínez", "ranking": 4900 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Silva", "ranking": 4901 }, { "player_name": "Óscar Aranda", "ranking": 4902 }, { "player_name": "Ryunosuke Sato", "ranking": 4903 }, { "player_name": "Santi García", "ranking": 4904 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Diogo Travassos", "ranking": 4906 }, { "player_name": "Miha Zajc", "ranking": 4907 }, { "player_name": "Rokas Pukštas", "ranking": 4908 }, { "player_name": "Alex Dobre", "ranking": 4909 }, { "player_name": "David Moses", "ranking": 4910 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.399959715539993, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5636345325245452, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9894, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (4 historical appearances) to 25.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.56)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3058, "goal_rate": 0.3497, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.0606, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8025, "minutes": 68, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 24, "possession_lost": 8.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.25, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 2 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:02:15.441175+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 325, "rows": 6303 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 1.2082, "totalShots": 2.3293, "minutesPlayed": 72.4435, "shotValueNormalized": 0.0706, "accuratePass": 9.2454, "expectedAssists": 0.0769 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.3057843744754791, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0826 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0724 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0352 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3626, "items": [ { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0607 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0237 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0252 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0215, "total": 0.3058, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.014464, "item_margins": [ { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.183324 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.075482 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.074687 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.037769 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.031536 } ], "others_margin": -0.067951 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.3497123122215271, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1258 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0323 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2866, "items": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0311 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.025 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0272 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0184 } ], "others": 0.0049, "total": 0.3497, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.249595, "item_margins": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.114762 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.093163 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.092569 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.058988 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.054986 } ], "others_margin": 0.014007 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.536279022693634, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1486 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "importance": 0.0618 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5888, "items": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0693 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0546 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.0232 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0214 } ], "others": -0.0161, "total": 0.5363, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.52966, "item_margins": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.12531 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.099916 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.041748 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": 0.041252 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.038052 } ], "others_margin": -0.029498 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.110979022693634, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.1122 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0872 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0825 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0566 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.4352, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2606 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.245 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0626 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0524 } ], "others": 0.2201, "total": 2.1109, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.435195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.260551 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.244956 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": 0.064965 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.062568 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.052379 } ], "others_margin": 0.220212 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.060582783073186874, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1197 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0571 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0369 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.06, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0287 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0028 } ], "others": -0.0099, "total": 0.0606, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.812623, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.390943 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "margin": -0.102898 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.047099 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.039417 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.038309 } ], "others_margin": -0.154342 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5451682209968567, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1105 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0444 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0409 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6782, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0993 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0241 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0139 } ], "others": 0.0044, "total": 0.5452, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.388283, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.158223 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.042436 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.030617 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.030425 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.025433 } ], "others_margin": 0.007906 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.802545070648193, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0724 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0438 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.815, "items": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0463 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0408 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0097, "total": 6.8025, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.814961, "item_margins": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.046328 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.040757 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.022389 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010209 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.009502 } ], "others_margin": -0.009524 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9894, quality 0.465)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3025, "goal_rate": 0.346, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.0599, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8025, "minutes": 68, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 7.9151, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2473, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 2 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5200000, "quality_factor": 0.4646, "boost_factor": 0.9894 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0854, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8025, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.2338, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0698, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.4, "appearance_probability": 0.564 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0854, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8025, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.2338, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0698, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 1.1918, xG scale 0.5454, xA scale 0.8249, team xA 0.42 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0466, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8025, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.2338, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0698, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.4, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0901, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1918, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5122, "team_expected_assists": 0.4225, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.5454, "xa_scale": 0.8249, "opponent_lambda": 3.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.564 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0854, "after": 0.0466 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 70.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0466, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8025, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.2338, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0698, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.4, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0901, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4905, "fifa_rank": 5809.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 70.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0466, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8025, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.2338, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0698, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.4, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0257, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0901, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0257, "scorer_weight": 0.0287, "squad_weight_total": 0.6066, "weight_share": 0.0472, "finishing_factor": 1.0901, "appearance_weight": 0.564, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0466, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8025, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.2338, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0698, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.4, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0257, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0078, "finishing_factor": 1.0901, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0078, "provider_weight": 0.0098, "squad_weight_total": 0.4059, "weight_share": 0.0241, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.564, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Borja Mayoral": { "player_id": 604954, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 182, "market_value": 6300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0133, "goal_rate": 0.0204, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.631, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.2892, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 2.2, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.1, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0095, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0019, "finishing_factor": 0.9462, "creation_factor": 0.9416, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416314.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3389, "combined_rank_score": 1361.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 765.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.65, "sofascore_appearances": 16.0, "fifa_rank": 1957.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.631, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Borja Mayoral", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Denis Vavro", "ranking": 3384 }, { "player_name": "Phillipp Mwene", "ranking": 3385 }, { "player_name": "Jesús Rodriguez", "ranking": 3386 }, { "player_name": "Ismael Koné", "ranking": 3387 }, { "player_name": "Tomáš Holeš", "ranking": 3388 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Álex Moreno", "ranking": 3390 }, { "player_name": "Rico Henry", "ranking": 3391 }, { "player_name": "Leo Østigård", "ranking": 3392 }, { "player_name": "Guido Carrillo", "ranking": 3393 }, { "player_name": "Juanlu Sánchez", "ranking": 3394 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.376, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.376, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.1, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.722, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9934, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 3.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (2 historical appearances) to 13.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.72); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 3.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1685, "goal_rate": 0.1416, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.631, "minutes": 5, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 2.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:02:15.441175+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 325, "rows": 6303 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": null } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.0, "minutesPlayed": 5.3243, "shotValueNormalized": 0.0, "accuratePass": 0.0, "expectedAssists": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.16848814487457275, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0826 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0724 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0352 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3626, "items": [ { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0773 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0276 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "topSpeed", "contribution": -0.0149 } ], "others": -0.0294, "total": 0.1685, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.014464, "item_margins": [ { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.239826 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.101727 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.09915 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.092625 }, { "name": "topSpeed", "margin": -0.0727 } ], "others_margin": -0.160397 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.14156857132911682, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1258 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0323 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2866, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.042 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0286 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0073 } ], "others": -0.0344, "total": 0.1416, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.249595, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.158353 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.124515 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.110864 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.053059 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.040738 } ], "others_margin": -0.217848 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.27334633469581604, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1486 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "importance": 0.0618 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5888, "items": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.1485 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0952 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0557 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0366 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0158 } ], "others": -0.0751, "total": 0.2733, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.52966, "item_margins": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.29072 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.243702 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.149528 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.095817 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.044361 } ], "others_margin": -0.242283 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.650284469127655, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.1122 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0872 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0825 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0566 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.4352, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2917 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.1304 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0871 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.069 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0556 } ], "others": -0.2623, "total": 0.6503, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.435195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.291736 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.130424 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.087132 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.068977 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.055622 } ], "others_margin": -0.262263 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.021342355757951736, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1197 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0571 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0369 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.06, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0039 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0022 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0019 } ], "others": -0.009, "total": 0.0213, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.812623, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.506666 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.169195 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.120191 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.067225 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.062379 } ], "others_margin": -0.349164 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.36861535906791687, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1105 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0444 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0409 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6782, "items": [ { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.2073 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.045 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.041 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0342 } ], "others": -0.1173, "total": 0.3686, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.388283, "item_margins": [ { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.364889 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.091344 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.083907 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.075791 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.06807 } ], "others_margin": -0.276219 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.630962371826172, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0724 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0438 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.815, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0424 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0268 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0268 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0656, "total": 6.631, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.814961, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.04243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.026805 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.026777 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.012715 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009693 } ], "others_margin": -0.065579 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9934, quality 0.478)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1674, "goal_rate": 0.1406, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.631, "minutes": 5, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 1.9869, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6300000, "quality_factor": 0.4781, "boost_factor": 0.9934 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0031)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1674, "goal_rate": 0.1402, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.631, "minutes": 5, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 1.9869, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 2.2, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0031, "history_matches": 2, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0311 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0311 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 13.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0244, "goal_rate": 0.0204, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.631, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.2892, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 2.2, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.1 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.1, "appearance_probability": 0.722 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0244, "goal_rate": 0.0204, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.631, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.2892, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 2.2, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.1 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 1.1918, xG scale 0.5454, xA scale 0.8249, team xA 0.42 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0133, "goal_rate": 0.0204, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.631, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.2892, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 2.2, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.1, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9462, "creation_factor": 0.9416 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1918, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5122, "team_expected_assists": 0.4225, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.5454, "xa_scale": 0.8249, "opponent_lambda": 3.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.722 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0244, "after": 0.0133 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0133, "goal_rate": 0.0204, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.631, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.2892, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 2.2, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.1, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9462, "creation_factor": 0.9416, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3389, "fifa_rank": 1957.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0133, "goal_rate": 0.0204, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.631, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.2892, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 2.2, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.1, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0095, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9462, "creation_factor": 0.9416, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0095, "scorer_weight": 0.0091, "squad_weight_total": 0.6066, "weight_share": 0.015, "finishing_factor": 0.9462, "appearance_weight": 0.722, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0133, "goal_rate": 0.0204, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.631, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.2892, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 2.2, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.1, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0095, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0019, "finishing_factor": 0.9462, "creation_factor": 0.9416, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0019, "provider_weight": 0.0018, "squad_weight_total": 0.4059, "weight_share": 0.0044, "creation_factor": 0.9416, "appearance_weight": 0.722, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Nemanja Gudelj": { "player_id": 68332, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 187, "market_value": 1900000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "assist_rate": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.013, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.2262, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0089, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0072, "finishing_factor": 0.916, "creation_factor": 1.0735, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416303.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0737, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336.0, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0735, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416326.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0098, "expected_assists": 0.1573, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348.0, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314.0, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0213, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 12, "clearances": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1778, "combined_rank_score": 964.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1231.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7299, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nemanja Gudelj", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jake Grech", "ranking": 1773 }, { "player_name": "Domantas Antanavičius", "ranking": 1774 }, { "player_name": "Emil Tsenov", "ranking": 1775 }, { "player_name": "Maksim Myakish", "ranking": 1776 }, { "player_name": "Jun'ai Byfield", "ranking": 1777 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jon Guridi", "ranking": 1779 }, { "player_name": "Pedro Felipe", "ranking": 1780 }, { "player_name": "Nico Guillén", "ranking": 1781 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Pires", "ranking": 1782 }, { "player_name": "Yuri", "ranking": 1783 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.564, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "numberOfSprints", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "intensity_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.564, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.692, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 15.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (5 historical appearances) to 18.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.69); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 15.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0638, "assist_rate": 0.0873, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1206, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 6.2, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:02:07.046807+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 550, "rows": 13779 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.9596, "expectedAssists": 0.054, "creative_index": 0.2182, "creative_efficiency": 0.0505, "shotValueNormalized": -0.0332, "dribbleValueNormalized": -0.0041 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6191627383232117, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.12 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0959 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "importance": 0.0798 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0425 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9267, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.115 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0975 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0361 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0196 } ], "others": -0.0894, "total": 0.6192, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.076148, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.132483 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.128036 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.049345 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.029966 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.027338 } ], "others_margin": -0.134762 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06380373239517212, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.118 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0768 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0579 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0872, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0024 } ], "others": -0.0045, "total": 0.0638, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.439192, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.059279 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.055678 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.054034 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.040763 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.033876 } ], "others_margin": -0.069123 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.08729065954685211, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0669 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0465 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0404 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "importance": 0.0277 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0851, "items": [ { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0054 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0022 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0021 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0014 } ], "others": -0.0034, "total": 0.0873, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.463441, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.136697 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.056812 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": -0.024066 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.023591 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.015393 } ], "others_margin": -0.039087 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.12060797959566116, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.082 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.035 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0344 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1826, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0451 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0064 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0062 } ], "others": 0.0003, "total": 0.1206, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.700309, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.28375 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.077152 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "margin": -0.058302 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.052234 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.050293 } ], "others_margin": 0.002362 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.08955459296703339, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0879 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0676 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "intensity_index", "importance": 0.0294 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1479, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.004 } ], "others": 0.0044, "total": 0.0896, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.911166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.234901 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.153884 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.065478 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.050106 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": -0.045994 } ], "others_margin": 0.048625 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.30647459626197815, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1114 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.033 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3374, "items": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": 0.0016, "total": 0.3065, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.086396, "item_margins": [ { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.06438 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": -0.061523 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.036746 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.034925 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.032412 } ], "others_margin": 0.005001 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8442745962619781, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1236 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0751 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.0381, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0804 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.036 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0335 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0306 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0249 } ], "others": 0.0116, "total": 0.8443, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.038069, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.080393 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.035958 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.033536 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.030649 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.024872 } ], "others_margin": 0.011604 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.729918003082275, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0666 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0305 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8598, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.052 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0601, "total": 6.7299, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.859756, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.052019 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.015781 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.011718 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011061 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.010792 } ], "others_margin": -0.060027 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0857, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1183, "goal_rate": 0.0879, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 6.0836, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0043)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0853, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1183, "goal_rate": 0.0875, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 6.0836, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0043, "history_matches": 5, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8284, "after": 0.8508 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0216 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 18.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "assist_rate": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0238, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.2262, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.14, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "assist_rate": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0238, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.2262, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 1.1918, xG scale 0.5454, xA scale 0.8249, team xA 0.42 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "assist_rate": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.013, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.2262, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.916, "creation_factor": 1.0735 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1918, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5122, "team_expected_assists": 0.4225, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.5454, "xa_scale": 0.8249, "opponent_lambda": 3.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0238, "after": 0.013 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "assist_rate": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.013, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.2262, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.916, "creation_factor": 1.0735, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1778, "fifa_rank": 1231.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "assist_rate": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.013, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.2262, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0089, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.916, "creation_factor": 1.0735, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0089, "scorer_weight": 0.0082, "squad_weight_total": 0.6066, "weight_share": 0.0136, "finishing_factor": 0.916, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "assist_rate": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.013, "goal_rate": 0.0176, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.2262, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 0.0, "shotConversion": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.6, "pointsPerMatch": 0.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0089, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0072, "finishing_factor": 0.916, "creation_factor": 1.0735, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0072, "provider_weight": 0.0077, "squad_weight_total": 0.4059, "weight_share": 0.019, "creation_factor": 1.0735, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Sebastián Boselli": { "player_id": 1392092, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 183, "market_value": 1500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 11, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416336.0, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416326.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.037, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348.0, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300.0, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047.0, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3818, "combined_rank_score": 1819.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 721.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.68, "sofascore_appearances": 11.0, "fifa_rank": 2917.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.5742, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sebastián Boselli", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "David Møller Wolfe", "ranking": 3813 }, { "player_name": "Sebastian Berhalter", "ranking": 3814 }, { "player_name": "Sheraldo Becker", "ranking": 3815 }, { "player_name": "Hamza Igamane", "ranking": 3816 }, { "player_name": "Ciro Immobile", "ranking": 3817 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Paul Pogba", "ranking": 3819 }, { "player_name": "Geoffrey Kondogbia", "ranking": 3820 }, { "player_name": "Mikey Moore", "ranking": 3821 }, { "player_name": "Laurent Abergel", "ranking": 3822 }, { "player_name": "Zeki Amdouni", "ranking": 3823 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.564, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.564, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 10.51, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.602, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9812, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 8.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (5 historical appearances) to 10.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.60); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 8.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:01:55.523250+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 402, "rows": 11400 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 21.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": null }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 5.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 0.8532, "defensive_actions": 1.4156, "wonTackle": 0.728, "totalTackle_p90": 1.6467, "totalClearance_p90": 1.9786, "aerialWon": 0.2696 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.5758006572723389, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0903 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0858 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0447 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0364 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9034, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1558 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0657 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0144 } ], "others": -0.0854, "total": 0.5758, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.101631, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.189337 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.092029 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.027051 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.025856 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.021981 } ], "others_margin": -0.13807 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.9956567287445068, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.1044 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.0629 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.045 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0342 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3313, "items": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.1191 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0794 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0722 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0545 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0412 } ], "others": -0.128, "total": 0.9957, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.286166, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.093708 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.063459 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.057517 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.045692 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.035975 } ], "others_margin": -0.121084 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.5971514582633972, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "importance": 0.1003 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0586 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0501 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "importance": 0.0492 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0386 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8256, "items": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.1536 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0282 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": 0.0041, "total": 0.5972, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.191612, "item_margins": [ { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.205856 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.042834 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.039789 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.022078 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.020188 } ], "others_margin": 0.006773 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.5554876327514648, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.138 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0733 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0425 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.3876, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.8158 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4287 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.131 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0886 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0615 } ], "others": -0.3065, "total": 1.5555, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.220122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.27552 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.182355 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.063079 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.045058 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.032518 } ], "others_margin": -0.179803 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.3932178318500519, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1155 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0659 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "importance": 0.0345 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0335 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "importance": 0.0332 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.2696, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.5454 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1724 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0505 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0193 } ], "others": -0.0671, "total": 0.3932, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.238719, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.561324 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.271841 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.096054 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.044188 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.041139 } ], "others_margin": -0.157564 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.23353803157806396, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0333 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.476, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0694 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.055 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0423 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0416 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0226 } ], "others": -0.0116, "total": 0.2335, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.476045, "item_margins": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.069383 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.055013 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.042262 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.041629 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.022595 } ], "others_margin": -0.011624 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.574203968048096, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0466 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0352 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7578, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0461 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0799, "total": 6.5742, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.757789, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.046141 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.015739 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.014944 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.01387 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.013087 } ], "others_margin": -0.079802 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9812, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1500000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9812 } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0043)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": -11.25 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0043, "history_matches": 5, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 10.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 11, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.51 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 10.51, "appearance_probability": 0.602 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 11, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.51 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 1.1918, xG scale 0.5454, xA scale 0.8249, team xA 0.42 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 11, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1918, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5122, "team_expected_assists": 0.4225, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.5454, "xa_scale": 0.8249, "opponent_lambda": 3.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.602 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 11, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3818, "fifa_rank": 2917.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 11, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 0.6066, "weight_share": 0.0016, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 0.602, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.5742, "minutes": 11, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "minutesPct": 5.9, "pointsPerMatch": 1.5, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.602, "bench_expected_minutes": 10.51, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 0.4059, "weight_share": 0.0025, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 0.602, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Ivan Azón": { "player_id": 1000696, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 90, "height": 181, "market_value": 5200000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0466, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8025, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.2338, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0698, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.4, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0257, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0078, "finishing_factor": 1.0901, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416303.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3988, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336.0, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.056, "expected_assists": 0.0821, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416326.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0761, "expected_assists": 0.2082, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416348.0, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4905, "combined_rank_score": 2997.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 5809.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8025, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ivan Azón", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Gabri Martínez", "ranking": 4900 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Silva", "ranking": 4901 }, { "player_name": "Óscar Aranda", "ranking": 4902 }, { "player_name": "Ryunosuke Sato", "ranking": 4903 }, { "player_name": "Santi García", "ranking": 4904 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Diogo Travassos", "ranking": 4906 }, { "player_name": "Miha Zajc", "ranking": 4907 }, { "player_name": "Rokas Pukštas", "ranking": 4908 }, { "player_name": "Alex Dobre", "ranking": 4909 }, { "player_name": "David Moses", "ranking": 4910 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "topSpeed", "numberOfSprints", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "speed_threat", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.5, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.399959715539993, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5636345325245452, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9894, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (4 historical appearances) to 25.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.56)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3058, "goal_rate": 0.3497, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.0606, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8025, "minutes": 68, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 24, "possession_lost": 8.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.25, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 2 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:02:15.441175+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 325, "rows": 6303 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 1.2082, "totalShots": 2.3293, "minutesPlayed": 72.4435, "shotValueNormalized": 0.0706, "accuratePass": 9.2454, "expectedAssists": 0.0769 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.3057843744754791, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0826 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0724 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "importance": 0.0379 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0352 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3626, "items": [ { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0607 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0237 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0252 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0215, "total": 0.3058, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.014464, "item_margins": [ { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.183324 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.075482 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.074687 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.037769 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.031536 } ], "others_margin": -0.067951 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.3497123122215271, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1258 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0323 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2866, "items": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0311 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.025 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0272 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0184 } ], "others": 0.0049, "total": 0.3497, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.249595, "item_margins": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.114762 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.093163 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.092569 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.058988 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.054986 } ], "others_margin": 0.014007 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.536279022693634, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.1486 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "importance": 0.0618 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0343 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5888, "items": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0693 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0546 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.0232 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0214 } ], "others": -0.0161, "total": 0.5363, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.52966, "item_margins": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.12531 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.099916 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.041748 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": 0.041252 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.038052 } ], "others_margin": -0.029498 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.110979022693634, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.1122 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0872 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0825 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.074 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0566 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.4352, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2606 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.245 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "contribution": 0.065 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0626 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0524 } ], "others": 0.2201, "total": 2.1109, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.435195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.260551 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.244956 }, { "name": "numberOfSprints", "margin": 0.064965 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.062568 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.052379 } ], "others_margin": 0.220212 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.060582783073186874, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1197 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0571 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0369 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.06, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0287 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0028 } ], "others": -0.0099, "total": 0.0606, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.812623, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.390943 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "margin": -0.102898 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.047099 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.039417 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.038309 } ], "others_margin": -0.154342 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5451682209968567, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1105 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0444 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0409 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6782, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0993 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0241 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0139 } ], "others": 0.0044, "total": 0.5452, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.388283, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.158223 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.042436 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.030617 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.030425 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.025433 } ], "others_margin": 0.007906 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.802545070648193, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0724 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0438 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.815, "items": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0463 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0408 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0097, "total": 6.8025, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.814961, "item_margins": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.046328 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.040757 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.022389 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010209 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.009502 } ], "others_margin": -0.009524 } } ], "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9894, quality 0.465)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3025, "goal_rate": 0.346, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.0599, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8025, "minutes": 68, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 7.9151, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2473, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 2 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5200000, "quality_factor": 0.4646, "boost_factor": 0.9894 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0854, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8025, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.2338, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0698, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.4, "appearance_probability": 0.564 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0854, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8025, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.2338, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0698, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.65 (squad xG sum 1.1918, xG scale 0.5454, xA scale 0.8249, team xA 0.42 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0466, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8025, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.2338, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0698, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.4, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0901, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.65, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1918, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5122, "team_expected_assists": 0.4225, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.5454, "xa_scale": 0.8249, "opponent_lambda": 3.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.564 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0854, "after": 0.0466 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 70.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0466, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8025, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.2338, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0698, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.4, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0901, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4905, "fifa_rank": 5809.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 70.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0466, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8025, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.2338, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0698, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.4, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0257, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0901, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0257, "scorer_weight": 0.0287, "squad_weight_total": 0.6066, "weight_share": 0.0472, "finishing_factor": 1.0901, "appearance_weight": 0.564, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0466, "goal_rate": 0.0976, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.8025, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.2338, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0698, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.4, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.079, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0257, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0078, "finishing_factor": 1.0901, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0078, "provider_weight": 0.0098, "squad_weight_total": 0.4059, "weight_share": 0.0241, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.564, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.65, "expected_assists": 0.42, "total_shots": 9, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 282, "interceptions": 3, "tackles": 6, "avg_rating": 6.82, "possession_estimated_pct": 45.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Raphinha", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 63000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.859, "defenders": [ "Francho Serrano" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.611, "xg_contribution": 0.3629, "xg_multiplier": 1.2811, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Francho Serrano", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.389 } ], "duel_analysis": "Raphinha (LWB) has a clear attacking advantage against Francho Serrano in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 61%. The quality gap is significant (€63M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.28 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.363 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Lamine Yamal", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 237000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Mario Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.531, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.604, "xg_contribution": 0.4028, "xg_multiplier": 1.2705, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mario Martín", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.396 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lamine Yamal (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Mario Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€237M vs €11M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.27 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.403 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Pedri", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 164000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Mario Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.531, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.568, "xg_contribution": 0.1828, "xg_multiplier": 1.2175, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mario Martín", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.432 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedri (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Mario Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€164M vs €11M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.22 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.183 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Dani Olmo", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Ramón Terrats" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.44, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.612, "xg_contribution": 0.2305, "xg_multiplier": 1.2828, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 3.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ramón Terrats", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.388 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dani Olmo (RWB) has a clear attacking advantage against Ramón Terrats in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 61%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.28 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.231 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Anthony Gordon", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 82000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.884, "defenders": [ "Andrés García", "Abdel Abqar" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.461, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.371, "xg_contribution": 0.5497, "xg_multiplier": 1.2519, "shots_in_zone": 2.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrés García", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.629 }, { "player": "Abdel Abqar", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.629 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anthony Gordon (ST) has a clear attacking advantage against Andrés García and Abdel Abqar in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€82M vs €5M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.25 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.550 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Karim Adeyemi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Andrés García", "Abdel Abqar" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.461, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.315, "xg_contribution": 0.5346, "xg_multiplier": 1.1696, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrés García", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.685 }, { "player": "Abdel Abqar", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.685 } ], "duel_analysis": "Karim Adeyemi (ST) is slightly favored against Andrés García and Abdel Abqar in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€41M vs €5M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.17 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.535 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ramón Terrats", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Dani Olmo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.848, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "xg_contribution": 0.168, "xg_multiplier": 0.7172, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dani Olmo", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 58000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.772 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ramón Terrats (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dani Olmo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €58M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.72 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.168 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Mario Martín", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Fermín López" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.894, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.295, "xg_contribution": 0.1188, "xg_multiplier": 0.7722, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Fermín López", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 103000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.705 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mario Martín (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Fermín López in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€11M vs €103M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.77 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.119 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Orel Mangala", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 8600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.506, "defenders": [ "Fermín López" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.894, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.287, "xg_contribution": 0.0816, "xg_multiplier": 0.7601, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Fermín López", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 103000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.713 } ], "duel_analysis": "Orel Mangala (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Fermín López in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€9M vs €103M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.76 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.082 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Francho Serrano", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Raphinha" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.859, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.229, "xg_contribution": 0.075, "xg_multiplier": 0.7189, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Raphinha", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 63000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.771 } ], "duel_analysis": "Francho Serrano (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Raphinha in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €63M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.72 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.075 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Martín Satriano", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 10600000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.529, "defenders": [ "Pau Cubarsí" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.891, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.296, "xg_contribution": 0.2207, "xg_multiplier": 0.7738, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.704 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martín Satriano (SS) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pau Cubarsí in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€11M vs €94M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.77 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.221 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Enes Ünal", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 6800000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.484, "defenders": [ "Pau Cubarsí" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.891, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "xg_contribution": 0.2197, "xg_multiplier": 0.7321, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.732 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enes Ünal (SS) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pau Cubarsí in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€7M vs €94M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.73 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.220 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Christantus Uche", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 13200000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.559, "defenders": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Jules Koundé" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.876, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2257, "xg_multiplier": 0.8268, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jules Koundé", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Christantus Uche (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Pau Cubarsí and Jules Koundé in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€13M vs €79M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.83 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.226 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.93, "away_midfield_power": 0.504, "home_creative_power": 1.012, "away_creative_power": 0.44, "home_defensive_power": 0.791, "away_defensive_power": 0.418, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.649, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Lamine Yamal", "Pedri", "Fermín López", "Raphinha", "Dani Olmo" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Mario Martín", "Orel Mangala", "Ramón Terrats", "Francho Serrano" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 54.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 45.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.8, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 7.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "home_throughball_threat": 3.6, "away_throughball_threat": 1.9, "key_personal_duel": "Lamine Yamal vs Mario Martín", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.062, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.947 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.02, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.02, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 3.944, "away_lambda": 0.65, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Raphinha": { "opponents": [ "Francho Serrano" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lamine Yamal": { "opponents": [ "Mario Martín", "Orel Mangala" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pedri": { "opponents": [ "Mario Martín", "Ramón Terrats" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dani Olmo": { "opponents": [ "Ramón Terrats", "Mario Martín" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Anthony Gordon": { "opponents": [ "Andrés García", "Abdel Abqar" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Karim Adeyemi": { "opponents": [ "Andrés García", "Abdel Abqar" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Fermín López": { "opponents": [ "Mario Martín", "Orel Mangala" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pau Cubarsí": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano", "Enes Ünal", "Christantus Uche" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jules Koundé": { "opponents": [ "Christantus Uche" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Joan García": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano", "Enes Ünal" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Alejandro Balde": { "opponents": [ "Christantus Uche" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Francho Serrano": { "opponents": [ "Raphinha" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mario Martín": { "opponents": [ "Lamine Yamal", "Pedri", "Fermín López", "Dani Olmo" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ramón Terrats": { "opponents": [ "Dani Olmo", "Pedri" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Andrés García": { "opponents": [ "Anthony Gordon", "Karim Adeyemi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Abdel Abqar": { "opponents": [ "Anthony Gordon", "Karim Adeyemi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Orel Mangala": { "opponents": [ "Fermín López", "Lamine Yamal" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Martín Satriano": { "opponents": [ "Pau Cubarsí" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Enes Ünal": { "opponents": [ "Pau Cubarsí" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Christantus Uche": { "opponents": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Jules Koundé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "David Soria": { "opponents": [ "Anthony Gordon", "Karim Adeyemi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Zaid Romero": { "opponents": [ "Anthony Gordon" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs Mario Martín). Total antagonist xG — Home: 2.26, Away: 1.11. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8584, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0741, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.159, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.016, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8671, "home_midfield_factor": 1.062, "away_midfield_factor": 0.947, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8662, "away_avg_quality": 0.4847, "avg_quality_gap": 0.3815, "squad_value_gap_log": 2.5165, "top5_value_gap_log": 2.444, "attack_value_gap_log": 2.438, "elite_count_gap": 10, "combined_quality_gap": 0.8108, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.4459, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2594, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1364, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1019, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "FC Barcelona", "away_squad": "Getafe", "home_goals_per90": 3.6666666666666665, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 4.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.896, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.988, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.8108, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.2077, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9289, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 3.784, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.806, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 3.7837, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.8057, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 3.944, "final_away_lambda": 0.65 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 1, "opponent_position": 11, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.3902, "attack_index": 3.581, "defense_concede_index": 0.606, "form_multiplier": 1.057, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 5.17, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.88, "team_ppg": 3.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.14 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 11, "opponent_position": 1, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.6286, "attack_index": 0.347, "defense_concede_index": 0.809, "form_multiplier": 0.943, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.17, "team_ppg": 1.14, "opponent_ppg": 3.0 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Barcelona vs Getafe. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-5-2 vs 3-4-2-1 (duel lambdas: Home 3.784, Away 0.806). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 3.944, Away 0.650 (most likely score 3-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 0, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 10, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "FC Barcelona", "away_squad": "Getafe", "home_goals_per90": 3.6666666666666665, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 4.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.896, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.988, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 3.944, "away_lambda": 0.65, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 3.784, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.806 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-30T01:04:03Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }