{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Liverpool", "away_team": "Man City", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261011", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-2", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0873, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Man City", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2094, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0873 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0825 }, { "score": "2-2", "probability": 0.0696 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0653 }, { "score": "1-3", "probability": 0.062 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0247, "0-1": 0.0509, "0-2": 0.0548, "0-3": 0.0389, "0-4": 0.0207, "0-5": 0.0088, "0-6": 0.0031, "0-7": 0.001, "1-0": 0.0379, "1-1": 0.0825, "1-2": 0.0873, "1-3": 0.062, "1-4": 0.033, "1-5": 0.0141, "1-6": 0.005, "1-7": 0.0015, "2-0": 0.0307, "2-1": 0.0653, "2-2": 0.0696, "2-3": 0.0494, "2-4": 0.0263, "2-5": 0.0112, "2-6": 0.004, "2-7": 0.0012, "3-0": 0.0163, "3-1": 0.0347, "3-2": 0.037, "3-3": 0.0262, "3-4": 0.014, "3-5": 0.006, "3-6": 0.0021, "3-7": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0065, "4-1": 0.0138, "4-2": 0.0147, "4-3": 0.0105, "4-4": 0.0056, "4-5": 0.0024, "4-6": 0.0008, "5-0": 0.0021, "5-1": 0.0044, "5-2": 0.0047, "5-3": 0.0033, "5-4": 0.0018, "5-5": 0.0008, "6-0": 0.0005, "6-1": 0.0012, "6-2": 0.0012, "6-3": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2895, "draw": 0.2094, "away_win": 0.5011 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.7186, "under_2_5_goals": 0.2814, "btts_yes": 0.7027, "btts_no": 0.2973, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1188, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2031 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.97, "MCR": 7.06, "ATR": 6.79, "GK": 7.06 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.03, "MCR": 7.23, "ATR": 7.11, "GK": 6.89 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Liverpool vs Man City. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Liverpool 3W-2D-5L vs Man City over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Dominik Szoboszlai, Erling Haaland (2)", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Florian Wirtz vs Elliot Anderson will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.90, Away: 1.27. Home danger zone: CDM vs CDM. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.73, "home_lambda": 1.594, "away_lambda": 2.13, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 3, "away_wins": 5, "draws": 2, "home_multiplier": 0.9857, "away_multiplier": 1.0143 }, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2895, "draw": 0.2094, "away_win": 0.5011 }, "favorite": "Man City", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5011, "fair_spread": -0.536, "fair_total": 3.724, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Liverpool", "estimate": 1.594, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Man City", "estimate": 2.13, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.7186, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.7027, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Liverpool", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1188, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Man City", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2031, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Florian Wirtz (Liverpool)", "estimate": 0.2399, "probability": 0.2133, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Erling Haaland (Man City)", "estimate": 0.7859, "probability": 0.5443, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Dominik Szoboszlai (Liverpool)", "estimate": 0.2278, "probability": 0.2037, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Rayan Cherki (Man City)", "estimate": 0.275, "probability": 0.2404, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.724, "expected_total_shots": 36, "expected_total_passes": 1120, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 17.2, "possession_home_pct": 49.9, "possession_away_pct": 50.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Man City", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5011, "script": "Man City is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.54 goals and fair total 3.72.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 18 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Liverpool must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Man City lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Man City chance creation leans on Erling Haaland against Jérémy Jacquet, Ronald Araújo in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Liverpool: starters carry the main goal usage through Dominik Szoboszlai; bench watchlist: Alexander Isak, Ryan Gravenberch, Hugo Ekitiké.", "Man City: starters carry the main goal usage through Erling Haaland (2); bench watchlist: Ayyoub Bouaddi, Jérémy Doku, Tijjani Reijnders.", "Assist usage should flow through Florian Wirtz, Rayan Cherki, Antoine Semenyo; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Man City tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 18 total first-half shots, and 1.86 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Liverpool is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Man City.", "Liverpool wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Liverpool": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Lewis Koumas": { "player_id": 1403111, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 67, "height": 181, "market_value": 3700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1395, "goal_rate": 0.1057, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0414, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7308, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.8156, "dispossessed": 0.3844, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0352, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.675, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Rúben Dias, Joško Gvardiol", "opponent_faced": "Rúben Dias, Joško Gvardiol", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1302, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0406, "finishing_factor": 0.918, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363648, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2499, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363261, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363246, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0288, "expected_assists": 0.005, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5521, "combined_rank_score": 3704.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 822.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 6586.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7308, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lewis Koumas", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Sergio Lozano", "ranking": 5516 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Tripichio", "ranking": 5517 }, { "player_name": "Maguette Gueye", "ranking": 5518 }, { "player_name": "Leonardo Godoy", "ranking": 5519 }, { "player_name": "Cristian Tarragona", "ranking": 5520 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Rodrigo Aliendro", "ranking": 5522 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Robertone", "ranking": 5523 }, { "player_name": "Tomás Conechny", "ranking": 5524 }, { "player_name": "David Martínez", "ranking": 5525 }, { "player_name": "Matías Pellegrini", "ranking": 5526 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.439, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.439, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.989, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Liverpool", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 13.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 6.92, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 3 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Liverpool, rel: 0.01, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1791, "goals": 0.1588, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "shots_on_target": 0.5226, "total_shots": 1.4335, "expected_assists": 0.0339, "key_pass": 0.5895, "rating": 6.7308, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 1.2313, "accurate_pass": 0.5617, "duels_won": 1.0583, "total_long_balls": 0.2809, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.2313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.5617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.5141, "possession_lost": 1.8358, "dispossessed": 0.3887, "duels_lost": 1.447, "aerial_lost": 0.6696, "total_contest": 0.6696, "won_contest": 0.2809, "ball_recovery": 0.2809, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7775, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0453, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7279, "total_progression": 23.3782, "progressive_carries": 0.6696, "shots_off_target": 0.9108 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-11T10:27:16.278802+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1337, "players": 604, "rows": 15537 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1052, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 1.2313, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 0.5617, "accuratePass": 0.5617, "totalShots": 0.6696 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1791401207447052, "model_output": 0.1791, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.282 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0352 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0258 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0248 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0538 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0432 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0224 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0074, "total": 0.1791, "log_link": 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0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0302, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7089, "total_progression": 23.121, "progressive_carries": 0.6622, "shots_off_target": 0.608, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.675, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Rúben Dias, Joško Gvardiol", "opponent_faced": "Rúben Dias, Joško Gvardiol", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Rúben Dias, Joško Gvardiol", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.675, "skill_edge": -0.1971, "height_edge": -0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.4461, "defender_skill": 0.8841, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Rúben Dias", "market_value": 60000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.882 }, { "player": "Joško Gvardiol", "market_value": 64000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8862 } ], "xg_override": 0.1196 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4306, "after": 0.9657 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9008, "after": 0.608 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5155, "after": 0.348 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1772, "after": 0.1196 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1566, "after": 0.1057 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0448, "after": 0.0302 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.59 (squad xG sum 1.3668, xG scale 1.1662, xA scale 1.2367, team xA 1.04 = 0.65 x 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"volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0717, quality 0.887)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1809, "goals": 0.1847, "goal_rate": 0.1847, "shots_on_target": 0.5799, "total_shots": 1.347, "expected_assists": 0.0758, "key_pass": 0.8024, "rating": 6.7198, "minutes": 76.0, "total_pass": 15.9172, "accurate_pass": 12.2949, "duels_won": 1.7799, "total_long_balls": 0.7707, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7707, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8689, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0173, "crosses_total": 0.7082, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.4925, "possession_lost": 7.7769, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6131, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.56, "won_contest": 0.301, "ball_recovery": 1.958, "challenges_lost": 0.3541, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0624, "tackles": 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"xg_override": 0.176 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.347, "after": 1.3103 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7671, "after": 0.7462 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5799, "after": 0.5641 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.4924, "after": 0.479 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1847, "after": 0.1797 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.59 (squad xG sum 1.3668, xG scale 1.1662, xA scale 1.2367, team xA 1.04 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2053, "goal_rate": 0.1797, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5641, "total_shots": 1.3103, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "key_pass": 0.8024, "rating": 6.7198, "minutes": 76.0, "total_pass": 15.9172, "accurate_pass": 12.2949, "duels_won": 1.7799, "total_long_balls": 0.7707, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7707, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8689, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0173, 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"duel_win_rate": 0.181, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Rúben Dias, Joško Gvardiol", "opponent_faced": "Rúben Dias, Joško Gvardiol", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0164, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 706, "fifa_rank": 103.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { 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{ "match_id": 14024005, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0808, "expected_assists": 0.1688, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025035, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2485, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 4, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 53, "combined_rank_score": 65.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 31.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.9833, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 99.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0113, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Florian Wirtz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Giorgian de Arrascaeta", "ranking": 48 }, { "player_name": "Rayan Cherki", "ranking": 49 }, { "player_name": "Rodri", "ranking": 50 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Serafim", "ranking": 51 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Frizzo", "ranking": 52 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Martín Zubimendi", "ranking": 54 }, { "player_name": "Luan Dias", "ranking": 55 }, { "player_name": "César Yanis", "ranking": 56 }, { "player_name": "Pau Cubarsí", "ranking": 57 }, { "player_name": "Declan Rice", "ranking": 58 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", 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0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0966, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0269 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0099 } ], "others": 0.0281, "total": 0.1819, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.337105, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.245346 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.1558 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.103347 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.1005 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.066811 } ], "others_margin": 0.167503 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.6265903115272522, "model_output": 0.6266, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.108 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0886 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0873 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0735 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.068 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0541 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0452 } ], "others": -0.0255, "total": 0.6266, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.126872, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.238502 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.164481 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131311 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.093391 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.071757 } ], "others_margin": -0.040032 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.9691026210784912, "model_output": 1.9691, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.533 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1622 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0764 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0647 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0618 } ], "others": 0.081, "total": 1.9691, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.532997 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.162191 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.076449 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.064723 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.061769 } ], "others_margin": 0.080993 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.011294841766357, "model_output": 7.0113, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1222 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0503 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0322 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0306 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.03 } ], "others": 0.0606, "total": 7.0113, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.122226 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.050338 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.032171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.030586 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030011 } ], "others_margin": 0.060625 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0135, quality 0.891)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5652, "expected_assists": 0.125, "assists": 0.1388, "assist_rate": 0.1388, "expected_goals": 0.2082, "goals": 0.1843, "goal_rate": 0.1843, "shots_on_target": 0.635, "total_shots": 1.9957, "rating": 7.0113, "minutes": 82.47, "total_pass": 47.5291, "accurate_pass": 38.9947, "duels_won": 3.6728, "total_long_balls": 2.5091, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3284, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9172, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6844, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.6119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.3103, "crosses_total": 0.7761, "crosses_accurate": 0.0064, "touches": 63.6095, "possession_lost": 15.0404, "dispossessed": 1.2931, "duels_lost": 4.3628, "aerial_won": 0.5115, "aerial_lost": 0.5586, "interceptions": 0.1396, "tackles_won": 0.7323, "tackles": 1.3053, "clearances": 0.6606, "total_contest": 2.3582, "won_contest": 1.1232, "challenges_lost": 0.2314, "fouls": 1.114, "fouls_drawn": 0.733, "blocks": 0.0601, "big_chances_created": 0.0951, "big_chances_missed": 0.1095, "xgot": 0.1444, "ball_carries": 15.9727, "total_progression": 37.1784, "progressive_carries": 1.5631, "shots_off_target": 1.3606 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 95000000, "quality_factor": 0.8914, "boost_factor": 1.0135, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0086)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5652, "expected_assists": 0.125, "assists": 0.1422, "assist_rate": 0.1422, "expected_goals": 0.2082, "goals": 0.1827, "goal_rate": 0.1827, "shots_on_target": 0.6388, "total_shots": 2.0018, "rating": 7.0113, "minutes": 82.47, "total_pass": 47.5291, "accurate_pass": 38.9947, "duels_won": 3.6728, "total_long_balls": 2.5091, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3284, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9172, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6844, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.6119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.3103, "crosses_total": 0.7787, "crosses_accurate": 0.0064, "touches": 63.6095, "possession_lost": 15.0404, "dispossessed": 1.2931, "duels_lost": 4.3628, "aerial_won": 0.5115, "aerial_lost": 0.5586, "interceptions": 0.1384, "tackles_won": 0.7353, "tackles": 1.3053, "clearances": 0.6606, "total_contest": 2.3582, "won_contest": 1.1232, "challenges_lost": 0.2314, "fouls": 1.1091, "fouls_drawn": 0.7313, "blocks": 0.0601, "big_chances_created": 0.0951, "big_chances_missed": 0.1095, "xgot": 0.1444, "ball_carries": 15.9727, "total_progression": 37.1784, "progressive_carries": 1.5631, "shots_off_target": 1.3606 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0086, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9163, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Liverpool" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.9957, "after": 2.0018 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5652, "expected_assists": 0.125, "assists": 0.1422, "assist_rate": 0.1422, "expected_goals": 0.2082, "goals": 0.1827, "goal_rate": 0.1827, "shots_on_target": 0.6388, "total_shots": 2.0018, "rating": 7.0113, "minutes": 82.47, "total_pass": 47.5291, "accurate_pass": 38.9947, "duels_won": 3.6728, "total_long_balls": 2.5091, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3284, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9172, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6844, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.6119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.3103, "crosses_total": 0.7787, "crosses_accurate": 0.0064, "touches": 63.6095, "possession_lost": 15.0404, "dispossessed": 1.2931, "duels_lost": 4.3628, "aerial_won": 0.5115, "aerial_lost": 0.5586, "interceptions": 0.1384, "tackles_won": 0.7353, "tackles": 1.3053, "clearances": 0.6606, "total_contest": 2.3582, "won_contest": 1.1232, "challenges_lost": 0.2314, "fouls": 1.1091, "fouls_drawn": 0.7313, "blocks": 0.0601, "big_chances_created": 0.0951, "big_chances_missed": 0.1095, "xgot": 0.1444, "ball_carries": 15.9727, "total_progression": 37.1784, "progressive_carries": 1.5631, "shots_off_target": 1.3606 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5652, "expected_assists": 0.125, "assists": 0.1422, "assist_rate": 0.1422, "expected_goals": 0.2057, "goals": 0.1805, "goal_rate": 0.1805, "shots_on_target": 0.6311, "total_shots": 1.9778, "rating": 7.0113, "minutes": 82.47, "total_pass": 47.5291, "accurate_pass": 38.9947, "duels_won": 3.6728, "total_long_balls": 2.5091, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3284, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9172, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6844, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.6119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.3103, "crosses_total": 0.7787, "crosses_accurate": 0.0064, "touches": 63.6095, "possession_lost": 15.0404, "dispossessed": 1.2931, "duels_lost": 4.3628, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5586, "interceptions": 0.1384, "tackles_won": 0.7353, "tackles": 1.3053, "clearances": 0.6606, "total_contest": 2.3582, "won_contest": 1.1232, "challenges_lost": 0.2314, "fouls": 1.1091, "fouls_drawn": 0.7313, "blocks": 0.0601, "big_chances_created": 0.0951, "big_chances_missed": 0.1082, "xgot": 0.1427, "ball_carries": 15.9727, "total_progression": 37.1784, "progressive_carries": 1.5631, "shots_off_target": 1.3443, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.988, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.412, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Fernández", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Fernández", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Enzo Fernández", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.412, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.988, "skill_edge": -0.0002, "height_edge": -0.008, "attacker_skill": 0.8963, "defender_skill": 0.8967, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Enzo Fernández", "market_value": 97000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8967 } ], "xg_override": 0.2057 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.5115, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0018, "after": 1.9778 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3606, "after": 1.3443 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6388, "after": 0.6311 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.59 (squad xG sum 1.3668, xG scale 1.1662, xA scale 1.2367, team xA 1.04 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5652, "expected_assists": 0.1546, "assist_rate": 0.1422, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2399, "goal_rate": 0.1805, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6311, "total_shots": 1.9778, "rating": 7.0113, "minutes": 82.47, "total_pass": 47.5291, "accurate_pass": 38.9947, "duels_won": 3.6728, "total_long_balls": 2.5091, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3284, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9172, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6844, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.6119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.3103, "crosses_total": 0.7787, "crosses_accurate": 0.0064, "touches": 63.6095, "possession_lost": 15.0404, "dispossessed": 1.2931, "duels_lost": 4.3628, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5586, "interceptions": 0.1384, "tackles_won": 0.7353, "tackles": 1.3053, "clearances": 0.6606, "total_contest": 2.3582, "won_contest": 1.1232, "challenges_lost": 0.2314, "fouls": 1.1091, "fouls_drawn": 0.7313, "blocks": 0.0601, "big_chances_created": 0.0951, "big_chances_missed": 0.1082, "xgot": 0.1664, "ball_carries": 15.9727, "total_progression": 37.1784, "progressive_carries": 1.5631, "shots_off_target": 1.3443, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.988, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.412, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Fernández", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Fernández", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9014, "creation_factor": 1.0983 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.594, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3668, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8378, "team_expected_assists": 1.0361, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1662, "xa_scale": 1.2367, "opponent_lambda": 2.13, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2057, "after": 0.2399 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.125, "after": 0.1546 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5652, "expected_assists": 0.1546, "assist_rate": 0.1422, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2399, "goal_rate": 0.1805, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6311, "total_shots": 1.9778, "rating": 7.0113, "minutes": 82.47, "total_pass": 47.5291, "accurate_pass": 38.9947, "duels_won": 3.6728, "total_long_balls": 2.5091, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3284, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9172, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6844, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.6119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.3103, "crosses_total": 0.7787, "crosses_accurate": 0.0064, "touches": 63.6095, "possession_lost": 15.0404, "dispossessed": 1.2931, "duels_lost": 4.3628, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5586, "interceptions": 0.1384, "tackles_won": 0.7353, "tackles": 1.3053, "clearances": 0.6606, "total_contest": 2.3582, "won_contest": 1.1232, "challenges_lost": 0.2314, "fouls": 1.1091, "fouls_drawn": 0.7313, "blocks": 0.0601, "big_chances_created": 0.0951, "big_chances_missed": 0.1082, "xgot": 0.1664, "ball_carries": 15.9727, "total_progression": 37.1784, "progressive_carries": 1.5631, "shots_off_target": 1.3443, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.988, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.412, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Fernández", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Fernández", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9014, "creation_factor": 1.0983, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 53, "fifa_rank": 99.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5652, "expected_assists": 0.1546, "assist_rate": 0.1422, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2399, "goal_rate": 0.1805, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6311, "total_shots": 1.9778, "rating": 7.0113, "minutes": 82.47, "total_pass": 47.5291, "accurate_pass": 38.9947, "duels_won": 3.6728, "total_long_balls": 2.5091, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3284, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9172, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6844, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.6119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.3103, "crosses_total": 0.7787, "crosses_accurate": 0.0064, "touches": 63.6095, "possession_lost": 15.0404, "dispossessed": 1.2931, "duels_lost": 4.3628, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5586, "interceptions": 0.1384, "tackles_won": 0.7353, "tackles": 1.3053, "clearances": 0.6606, "total_contest": 2.3582, "won_contest": 1.1232, "challenges_lost": 0.2314, "fouls": 1.1091, "fouls_drawn": 0.7313, "blocks": 0.0601, "big_chances_created": 0.0951, "big_chances_missed": 0.1082, "xgot": 0.1664, "ball_carries": 15.9727, "total_progression": 37.1784, "progressive_carries": 1.5631, "shots_off_target": 1.3443, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.988, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.412, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Fernández", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Fernández", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2133, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9014, "creation_factor": 1.0983, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2133, "scorer_weight": 0.2162, "squad_weight_total": 1.7089, "weight_share": 0.1265, "finishing_factor": 0.9014, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "weight": 0.2544, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2544, "runner_up": "Florian Wirtz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2162 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5652, "expected_assists": 0.1546, "assist_rate": 0.1422, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2399, "goal_rate": 0.1805, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6311, "total_shots": 1.9778, "rating": 7.0113, "minutes": 82.47, "total_pass": 47.5291, "accurate_pass": 38.9947, "duels_won": 3.6728, "total_long_balls": 2.5091, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3284, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9172, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6844, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.6119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.3103, "crosses_total": 0.7787, "crosses_accurate": 0.0064, "touches": 63.6095, "possession_lost": 15.0404, "dispossessed": 1.2931, "duels_lost": 4.3628, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5586, "interceptions": 0.1384, "tackles_won": 0.7353, "tackles": 1.3053, "clearances": 0.6606, "total_contest": 2.3582, "won_contest": 1.1232, "challenges_lost": 0.2314, "fouls": 1.1091, "fouls_drawn": 0.7313, "blocks": 0.0601, "big_chances_created": 0.0951, "big_chances_missed": 0.1082, "xgot": 0.1664, "ball_carries": 15.9727, "total_progression": 37.1784, "progressive_carries": 1.5631, "shots_off_target": 1.3443, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.988, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.412, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Fernández", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Fernández", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2133, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1432, "finishing_factor": 0.9014, "creation_factor": 1.0983, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1432, "provider_weight": 0.1698, "squad_weight_total": 0.9369, "weight_share": 0.1812, "creation_factor": 1.0983, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.1698, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1698, "runner_up": "Víctor Muñoz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1081, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominik Szoboszlai" ] } ] } } ] }, "Víctor Muñoz": { "player_id": 1145642, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 173, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1679, "goal_rate": 0.1513, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1351, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9312, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 46, "possession_lost": 14.0339, "dispossessed": 1.2091, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0366, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, 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"team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0604, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0967, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363261, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0209, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363254, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3228, "expected_assists": 0.1902, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363246, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.095, "expected_assists": 0.0413, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083696, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1496, "expected_assists": 0.5793, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083231, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1973, "expected_assists": 0.0734, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083258, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0301, "expected_assists": 0.2152, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083172, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2816, "expected_assists": 0.0709, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081809, "match_date": "2026-04-05", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1096, "combined_rank_score": 492.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 138.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.35, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 847.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9312, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Víctor Muñoz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ethan Britto", "ranking": 1091 }, { "player_name": "Shi-yeong Lee", "ranking": 1092 }, { "player_name": "Min-ho Yun", "ranking": 1093 }, { "player_name": "Andreas Schjelderup", "ranking": 1094 }, { "player_name": "Abbos Otakhonov", "ranking": 1095 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Merih Demiral", "ranking": 1097 }, { "player_name": "César Azpilicueta", "ranking": 1098 }, { "player_name": "Sardor Mirzayev", "ranking": 1099 }, { "player_name": "Mukhammadkodir Khamraliev", "ranking": 1100 }, { "player_name": "Pascal Groß", "ranking": 1101 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.763, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 39, "data_confidence": 0.763, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.007, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Liverpool", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 118.0, "goals_per90": 0.7692307692307692, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 4.58, "shots_on_target_pct": 16.7, "prior_reliability": 0.0867 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 39 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Liverpool, rel: 0.09, gls/90: 0.7692307692307692, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1781, "goals": 0.184, "goal_rate": 0.184, "shots_on_target": 0.5831, "total_shots": 1.8345, "expected_assists": 0.1084, "key_pass": 1.2599, "rating": 6.9312, "minutes": 81.0, "total_pass": 23.1363, "accurate_pass": 19.0971, "duels_won": 5.2431, "total_long_balls": 0.5338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2596, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3128, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9312, "crosses_total": 2.7851, "crosses_accurate": 0.8282, "touches": 45.4381, "possession_lost": 13.9363, "dispossessed": 1.2007, "duels_lost": 6.0272, "aerial_lost": 0.6365, "total_contest": 4.885, "won_contest": 2.0159, "ball_recovery": 3.0238, "challenges_lost": 0.2872, "fouls": 1.1108, "fouls_drawn": 1.9078, "assists": 0.0365, "assist_rate": 0.0365, "interceptions": 0.5229, "tackles_won": 0.1527, "tackles": 0.5975, "clearances": 0.2869, "blocks": 0.1088, "big_chances_created": 0.0765, "big_chances_missed": 0.5818, "xgot": 0.3092, "offsides": 0.09, "ball_carries": 19.4368, "total_progression": 145.0497, "progressive_carries": 5.3377, "shots_off_target": 1.2514 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-11T10:27:16.278802+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1337, "players": 604, "rows": 15537 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Newcastle 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"touches_p90", "margin": -0.031468 } ], "others_margin": -0.116154 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.18403594195842743, "model_output": 0.184, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.121 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0861 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0516 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0267 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0267 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2032, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0818 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0567 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0228 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0103 } ], "others": -0.057, "total": 0.184, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.593696, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.338295 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.221716 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.095386 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.084614 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.043581 } ], "others_margin": -0.269861 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5831140875816345, "model_output": 0.5831, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2113 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0717 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5367, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1517 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0664 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0488 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0318 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0246 } ], "others": 0.0027, "total": 0.5831, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.622283, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.248879 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.10144 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.081625 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.05403 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.041434 } ], "others_margin": 0.004501 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.834473729133606, "model_output": 1.8345, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2764 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0561 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4809 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1116 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0714 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.028 } ], "others": -0.059, "total": 1.8345, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.372807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.480855 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.111558 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.071417 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.028381 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.028025 } ], "others_margin": -0.058974 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.10844164341688156, "model_output": 0.1084, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1017 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0665 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0563 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0639, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0093 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.006 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.004 } ], "others": 0.0032, "total": 0.1084, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.751197, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.167498 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.129154 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.103276 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.061434 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.038299 } ], "others_margin": 0.029994 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.259860873222351, "model_output": 1.2599, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0328 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2033 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0963 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0603 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0419 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0409 } ], "others": 0.2282, "total": 1.2599, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.264043 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.104252 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.060179 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.041438 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.040469 } ], "others_margin": 0.199872 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.931199073791504, "model_output": 6.9312, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0588 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0424 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0218 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0192 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.019 } ], "others": 0.0064, "total": 6.9312, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058845 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.04241 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.021781 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.019213 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.019006 } ], "others_margin": 0.006338 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 34, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0070, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1794, "goals": 0.1853, "goal_rate": 0.1853, "shots_on_target": 0.5872, "total_shots": 1.8474, "expected_assists": 0.1092, "key_pass": 1.2687, "rating": 6.9312, "minutes": 81.0, "total_pass": 23.2983, "accurate_pass": 19.2308, "duels_won": 5.2798, "total_long_balls": 0.5375, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2614, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.434, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0287, "crosses_total": 2.8046, "crosses_accurate": 0.834, "touches": 45.7562, "possession_lost": 14.0339, "dispossessed": 1.2091, "duels_lost": 6.0694, "aerial_lost": 0.641, "total_contest": 4.9192, "won_contest": 2.03, "ball_recovery": 3.045, "challenges_lost": 0.2892, "fouls": 1.1186, "fouls_drawn": 1.9212, "assists": 0.0368, "assist_rate": 0.0368, "interceptions": 0.5266, "tackles_won": 0.1538, "tackles": 0.6017, "clearances": 0.2889, "blocks": 0.1096, "big_chances_created": 0.077, "big_chances_missed": 0.5859, "xgot": 0.3114, "offsides": 0.0906, "ball_carries": 19.5729, "total_progression": 146.065, "progressive_carries": 5.3751, "shots_off_target": 1.2602 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.007, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0064)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1794, "goals": 0.1885, "goal_rate": 0.1885, "shots_on_target": 0.5878, "total_shots": 1.862, "expected_assists": 0.1092, "key_pass": 1.2687, "rating": 6.9312, "minutes": 81.0, "total_pass": 23.2983, "accurate_pass": 19.2308, "duels_won": 5.2798, "total_long_balls": 0.5375, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2614, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.434, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0287, "crosses_total": 2.8221, "crosses_accurate": 0.834, "touches": 45.7562, "possession_lost": 14.0339, "dispossessed": 1.2091, "duels_lost": 6.0694, "aerial_lost": 0.641, "total_contest": 4.9192, "won_contest": 2.03, "ball_recovery": 3.045, "challenges_lost": 0.2892, "fouls": 1.1292, "fouls_drawn": 1.9266, "assists": 0.0366, "assist_rate": 0.0366, "interceptions": 0.5365, "tackles_won": 0.1528, "tackles": 0.6017, "clearances": 0.2889, "blocks": 0.1096, "big_chances_created": 0.077, "big_chances_missed": 0.5859, "xgot": 0.3114, "offsides": 0.09, "ball_carries": 19.5729, "total_progression": 146.065, "progressive_carries": 5.3751, "shots_off_target": 1.2602 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0064, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Liverpool" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.8046, "after": 2.8221 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.8474, "after": 1.862 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.1186, "after": 1.1292 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.5266, "after": 0.5365 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.9212, "after": 1.9266 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1794, "goals": 0.1885, "goal_rate": 0.1885, "shots_on_target": 0.5878, "total_shots": 1.862, "expected_assists": 0.1092, "key_pass": 1.2687, "rating": 6.9312, "minutes": 81.0, "total_pass": 23.2983, "accurate_pass": 19.2308, "duels_won": 5.2798, "total_long_balls": 0.5375, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2614, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.434, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0287, "crosses_total": 2.8221, "crosses_accurate": 0.834, "touches": 45.7562, "possession_lost": 14.0339, "dispossessed": 1.2091, "duels_lost": 6.0694, "aerial_lost": 0.641, "total_contest": 4.9192, "won_contest": 2.03, "ball_recovery": 3.045, "challenges_lost": 0.2892, "fouls": 1.1292, "fouls_drawn": 1.9266, "assists": 0.0366, "assist_rate": 0.0366, "interceptions": 0.5365, "tackles_won": 0.1528, "tackles": 0.6017, "clearances": 0.2889, "blocks": 0.1096, "big_chances_created": 0.077, "big_chances_missed": 0.5859, "xgot": 0.3114, "offsides": 0.09, "ball_carries": 19.5729, "total_progression": 146.065, "progressive_carries": 5.3751, "shots_off_target": 1.2602 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.144, "goals": 0.1513, "goal_rate": 0.1513, "shots_on_target": 0.4717, "total_shots": 1.4943, "expected_assists": 0.1092, "key_pass": 1.2687, "rating": 6.9312, "minutes": 81.0, "total_pass": 23.2983, "accurate_pass": 19.2308, "duels_won": 5.2798, "total_long_balls": 0.5375, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2614, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.434, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0287, "crosses_total": 2.8221, "crosses_accurate": 0.834, "touches": 45.7562, "possession_lost": 14.0339, "dispossessed": 1.2091, "duels_lost": 6.0694, "aerial_lost": 0.641, "total_contest": 4.9192, "won_contest": 2.03, "ball_recovery": 3.045, "challenges_lost": 0.2892, "fouls": 1.1292, "fouls_drawn": 1.9266, "assists": 0.0366, "assist_rate": 0.0366, "interceptions": 0.5365, "tackles_won": 0.1528, "tackles": 0.6017, "clearances": 0.2889, "blocks": 0.1096, "big_chances_created": 0.077, "big_chances_missed": 0.4702, "xgot": 0.2499, "offsides": 0.09, "ball_carries": 19.5729, "total_progression": 146.065, "progressive_carries": 5.3751, "shots_off_target": 1.0113, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8025, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Rúben Dias, Joško Gvardiol", "opponent_faced": "Rúben Dias, Joško Gvardiol", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Rúben Dias, Joško Gvardiol", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.8025, "skill_edge": -0.0783, "height_edge": -0.056, "attacker_skill": 0.71, "defender_skill": 0.8841, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Rúben Dias", "market_value": 60000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.882 }, { "player": "Joško Gvardiol", "market_value": 64000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8862 } ], "xg_override": 0.144 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.862, "after": 1.4943 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.2602, "after": 1.0113 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5878, "after": 0.4717 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.5859, "after": 0.4702 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.3114, "after": 0.2499 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1885, "after": 0.1513 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1794, "after": 0.144 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.59 (squad xG sum 1.3668, xG scale 1.1662, xA scale 1.2367, team xA 1.04 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1679, "goal_rate": 0.1513, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4717, "total_shots": 1.4943, "expected_assists": 0.1351, "key_pass": 1.2687, "rating": 6.9312, "minutes": 81.0, "total_pass": 23.2983, "accurate_pass": 19.2308, "duels_won": 5.2798, "total_long_balls": 0.5375, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2614, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.434, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0287, "crosses_total": 2.8221, "crosses_accurate": 0.834, "touches": 45.7562, "possession_lost": 14.0339, "dispossessed": 1.2091, "duels_lost": 6.0694, "aerial_lost": 0.641, "total_contest": 4.9192, "won_contest": 2.03, "ball_recovery": 3.045, "challenges_lost": 0.2892, "fouls": 1.1292, "fouls_drawn": 1.9266, "assist_rate": 0.0366, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5365, "tackles_won": 0.1528, "tackles": 0.6017, "clearances": 0.2889, "blocks": 0.1096, "big_chances_created": 0.077, "big_chances_missed": 0.4702, "xgot": 0.2914, "offsides": 0.09, "ball_carries": 19.5729, "total_progression": 146.065, "progressive_carries": 5.3751, "shots_off_target": 1.0113, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8025, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Rúben Dias, Joško Gvardiol", "opponent_faced": "Rúben Dias, Joško Gvardiol", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0376, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.594, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3668, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8378, "team_expected_assists": 1.0361, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1662, "xa_scale": 1.2367, "opponent_lambda": 2.13, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.144, "after": 0.1679 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1092, "after": 0.1351 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1679, "goal_rate": 0.1513, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4717, "total_shots": 1.4943, "expected_assists": 0.1351, "key_pass": 1.2687, "rating": 6.9312, "minutes": 81.0, "total_pass": 23.2983, "accurate_pass": 19.2308, "duels_won": 5.2798, "total_long_balls": 0.5375, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2614, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.434, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0287, "crosses_total": 2.8221, "crosses_accurate": 0.834, "touches": 45.7562, "possession_lost": 14.0339, "dispossessed": 1.2091, "duels_lost": 6.0694, "aerial_lost": 0.641, "total_contest": 4.9192, "won_contest": 2.03, "ball_recovery": 3.045, "challenges_lost": 0.2892, "fouls": 1.1292, "fouls_drawn": 1.9266, "assist_rate": 0.0366, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5365, "tackles_won": 0.1528, "tackles": 0.6017, "clearances": 0.2889, "blocks": 0.1096, "big_chances_created": 0.077, "big_chances_missed": 0.4702, "xgot": 0.2914, "offsides": 0.09, "ball_carries": 19.5729, "total_progression": 146.065, "progressive_carries": 5.3751, "shots_off_target": 1.0113, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8025, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Rúben Dias, Joško Gvardiol", "opponent_faced": "Rúben Dias, Joško Gvardiol", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0376, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1096, "fifa_rank": 847.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1679, "goal_rate": 0.1513, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4717, "total_shots": 1.4943, "expected_assists": 0.1351, "key_pass": 1.2687, "rating": 6.9312, "minutes": 81.0, "total_pass": 23.2983, "accurate_pass": 19.2308, "duels_won": 5.2798, "total_long_balls": 0.5375, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2614, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.434, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0287, "crosses_total": 2.8221, "crosses_accurate": 0.834, "touches": 45.7562, "possession_lost": 14.0339, "dispossessed": 1.2091, "duels_lost": 6.0694, "aerial_lost": 0.641, "total_contest": 4.9192, "won_contest": 2.03, "ball_recovery": 3.045, "challenges_lost": 0.2892, "fouls": 1.1292, "fouls_drawn": 1.9266, "assist_rate": 0.0366, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5365, "tackles_won": 0.1528, "tackles": 0.6017, "clearances": 0.2889, "blocks": 0.1096, "big_chances_created": 0.077, "big_chances_missed": 0.4702, "xgot": 0.2914, "offsides": 0.09, "ball_carries": 19.5729, "total_progression": 146.065, "progressive_carries": 5.3751, "shots_off_target": 1.0113, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8025, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Rúben Dias, Joško Gvardiol", "opponent_faced": "Rúben Dias, Joško Gvardiol", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1546, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0376, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1546, "scorer_weight": 0.1742, "squad_weight_total": 1.7089, "weight_share": 0.1019, "finishing_factor": 1.0376, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "weight": 0.2544, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2544, "runner_up": "Florian Wirtz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2162 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1679, "goal_rate": 0.1513, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4717, "total_shots": 1.4943, "expected_assists": 0.1351, "key_pass": 1.2687, "rating": 6.9312, "minutes": 81.0, "total_pass": 23.2983, "accurate_pass": 19.2308, "duels_won": 5.2798, "total_long_balls": 0.5375, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2614, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.434, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0287, "crosses_total": 2.8221, "crosses_accurate": 0.834, "touches": 45.7562, "possession_lost": 14.0339, "dispossessed": 1.2091, "duels_lost": 6.0694, "aerial_lost": 0.641, "total_contest": 4.9192, "won_contest": 2.03, "ball_recovery": 3.045, "challenges_lost": 0.2892, "fouls": 1.1292, "fouls_drawn": 1.9266, "assist_rate": 0.0366, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5365, "tackles_won": 0.1528, "tackles": 0.6017, "clearances": 0.2889, "blocks": 0.1096, "big_chances_created": 0.077, "big_chances_missed": 0.4702, "xgot": 0.2914, "offsides": 0.09, "ball_carries": 19.5729, "total_progression": 146.065, "progressive_carries": 5.3751, "shots_off_target": 1.0113, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8025, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Rúben Dias, Joško Gvardiol", "opponent_faced": "Rúben Dias, Joško Gvardiol", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1546, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1264, "finishing_factor": 1.0376, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1264, "provider_weight": 0.1081, "squad_weight_total": 0.9369, "weight_share": 0.1154, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.1698, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1698, "runner_up": "Víctor Muñoz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1081, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominik Szoboszlai" ] } ] } } ] }, "Alexis Mac Allister": { "player_id": 895324, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 176, "market_value": 77000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0949, "assist_rate": 0.0692, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0985, "goal_rate": 0.0975, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9529, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 43, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.158756 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.042956 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.036511 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.028775 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.0184 } ], "others_margin": -0.057945 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9528679847717285, "model_output": 6.9529, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1149 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0291 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0182 } ], "others": 0.0298, "total": 6.9529, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.114897 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.032078 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.02909 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020977 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.018199 } ], "others_margin": 0.029779 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 34, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0119, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8559, "expected_assists": 0.0767, "assists": 0.0696, "assist_rate": 0.0696, "expected_goals": 0.0854, "goals": 0.0991, "goal_rate": 0.0991, "shots_on_target": 0.3653, "total_shots": 1.1948, "rating": 6.9529, "minutes": 87.06, "total_pass": 48.6883, "accurate_pass": 42.5947, "duels_won": 4.4431, "total_long_balls": 4.0563, "accurate_long_balls": 2.46, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2635, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6609, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4249, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.9339, "crosses_total": 0.473, "crosses_accurate": 0.0437, "touches": 62.8304, "possession_lost": 9.7621, "dispossessed": 0.813, "duels_lost": 5.2361, "aerial_won": 0.8315, "aerial_lost": 1.1948, "interceptions": 0.5535, "tackles_won": 1.2193, "tackles": 2.2653, "clearances": 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2.46, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2635, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6609, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4249, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.9339, "crosses_total": 0.4704, "crosses_accurate": 0.0437, "touches": 62.8304, "possession_lost": 9.7621, "dispossessed": 0.813, "duels_lost": 5.2361, "aerial_won": 0.8315, "aerial_lost": 1.1948, "interceptions": 0.5504, "tackles_won": 1.2215, "tackles": 2.2653, "clearances": 1.5952, "total_contest": 1.2009, "won_contest": 0.5309, "challenges_lost": 1.0192, "fouls": 1.5761, "fouls_drawn": 0.9757, "blocks": 0.3054, "big_chances_created": 0.1145, "big_chances_missed": 0.0061, "xgot": 0.0568, "ball_carries": 14.1094, "total_progression": 39.1625, "progressive_carries": 0.517, "shots_off_target": 0.8295 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0055, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9673, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Liverpool" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", 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team xA 1.04 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8559, "expected_assists": 0.0949, "assist_rate": 0.0692, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0985, "goal_rate": 0.0975, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3594, "total_shots": 1.18, "rating": 6.9529, "minutes": 87.06, "total_pass": 48.6883, "accurate_pass": 42.5947, "duels_won": 4.4431, "total_long_balls": 4.0563, "accurate_long_balls": 2.46, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2635, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6609, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4249, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.9339, "crosses_total": 0.4704, "crosses_accurate": 0.0437, "touches": 62.8304, "possession_lost": 9.7621, "dispossessed": 0.813, "duels_lost": 5.2361, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.1948, "interceptions": 0.5504, "tackles_won": 1.2215, "tackles": 2.2653, "clearances": 1.5952, "total_contest": 1.2009, "won_contest": 0.5309, "challenges_lost": 1.0192, "fouls": 1.5761, "fouls_drawn": 0.9757, "blocks": 0.3054, "big_chances_created": 0.1145, 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0.8954, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1612 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1495 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.087 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3784, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.4339 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1248 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0733 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0308 } ], "others": -0.0335, "total": 0.8954, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320928, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.377975 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124052 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.071061 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.03713 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.032612 } ], "others_margin": -0.03666 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.49953192472457886, "model_output": 0.4995, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0628 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0287 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0085 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0083 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0083 } ], "others": -0.032, "total": 0.4995, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062772 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028664 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.00854 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.008349 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.008285 } ], "others_margin": -0.032069 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.692190170288086, "model_output": 6.6922, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.009 } ], "others": -0.0279, "total": 6.6922, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021962 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012808 }, { "name": "touches_p90", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0086, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6895, "tackles": 1.3193, "tackles_won": 0.8612, "clearances": 2.6876, "aerial_won": 0.9031, "total_shots": 0.5038, "rating": 6.6922, "minutes": 84.33, "total_pass": 37.1663, "accurate_pass": 30.4357, "duels_won": 3.7919, "total_long_balls": 3.3474, "accurate_long_balls": 1.255, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9964, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4392, "crosses_total": 2.2725, "crosses_accurate": 0.4669, "touches": 56.6651, "possession_lost": 12.051, "dispossessed": 0.5442, "duels_lost": 3.9235, "aerial_lost": 1.1493, "total_contest": 0.8149, "won_contest": 0.3622, "ball_recovery": 2.9425, "challenges_lost": 0.2154, "fouls": 1.5764, "fouls_drawn": 1.3472, "blocks": 0.3943, "goals": 0.0626, "goal_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0.0255, "assist_rate": 0.0255, "expected_goals": 0.0437, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "shots_on_target": 0.1552, "big_chances_created": 0.0335, "xgot": 0.0201, "ball_carries": 10.5608, "total_progression": 41.7123, "progressive_carries": 1.2018, "key_pass": 0.5676, "shots_off_target": 0.3486 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 36000000, "quality_factor": 0.7581, "boost_factor": 1.0086, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0089)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6926, "tackles": 1.3193, "tackles_won": 0.8628, "clearances": 2.6876, "aerial_won": 0.9031, "total_shots": 0.5087, "rating": 6.6922, "minutes": 84.33, "total_pass": 37.1663, "accurate_pass": 30.4357, "duels_won": 3.7919, "total_long_balls": 3.3474, "accurate_long_balls": 1.255, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9964, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4392, "crosses_total": 2.2708, "crosses_accurate": 0.4669, "touches": 56.6651, "possession_lost": 12.051, "dispossessed": 0.5442, "duels_lost": 3.9235, "aerial_lost": 1.1493, "total_contest": 0.8149, "won_contest": 0.3622, "ball_recovery": 2.9425, "challenges_lost": 0.2154, "fouls": 1.5763, "fouls_drawn": 1.3445, "blocks": 0.3943, "goals": 0.062, "goal_rate": 0.062, "assists": 0.0253, "assist_rate": 0.0253, "expected_goals": 0.0437, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "shots_on_target": 0.1585, "big_chances_created": 0.0335, "xgot": 0.0201, "ball_carries": 10.5608, "total_progression": 41.7123, "progressive_carries": 1.2018, "key_pass": 0.5676, "shots_off_target": 0.3486 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0089, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.937, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Liverpool" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6926, "tackles": 1.3193, "tackles_won": 0.8628, "clearances": 2.6876, "aerial_won": 0.9031, "total_shots": 0.5087, "rating": 6.6922, "minutes": 84.33, "total_pass": 37.1663, "accurate_pass": 30.4357, "duels_won": 3.7919, "total_long_balls": 3.3474, "accurate_long_balls": 1.255, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9964, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4392, "crosses_total": 2.2708, "crosses_accurate": 0.4669, "touches": 56.6651, "possession_lost": 12.051, "dispossessed": 0.5442, "duels_lost": 3.9235, "aerial_lost": 1.1493, "total_contest": 0.8149, "won_contest": 0.3622, "ball_recovery": 2.9425, "challenges_lost": 0.2154, "fouls": 1.5763, "fouls_drawn": 1.3445, "blocks": 0.3943, "goals": 0.062, "goal_rate": 0.062, "assists": 0.0253, "assist_rate": 0.0253, "expected_goals": 0.0437, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "shots_on_target": 0.1585, "big_chances_created": 0.0335, "xgot": 0.0201, "ball_carries": 10.5608, "total_progression": 41.7123, "progressive_carries": 1.2018, "key_pass": 0.5676, "shots_off_target": 0.3486 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6926, "tackles": 1.3193, "tackles_won": 0.8628, "clearances": 2.6876, "aerial_won": 0.9031, "total_shots": 0.5087, "rating": 6.6922, "minutes": 84.33, "total_pass": 37.1663, "accurate_pass": 30.4357, "duels_won": 3.7919, "total_long_balls": 3.3474, "accurate_long_balls": 1.255, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9964, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4392, "crosses_total": 2.2708, "crosses_accurate": 0.4669, "touches": 56.6651, "possession_lost": 12.051, "dispossessed": 0.5442, "duels_lost": 3.9235, "aerial_lost": 1.1493, "total_contest": 0.8149, "won_contest": 0.3622, "ball_recovery": 2.9425, "challenges_lost": 0.2154, "fouls": 1.5763, "fouls_drawn": 1.3445, "blocks": 0.3943, "goals": 0.062, "goal_rate": 0.062, "assists": 0.0253, "assist_rate": 0.0253, "expected_goals": 0.0437, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "shots_on_target": 0.1585, "big_chances_created": 0.0335, "xgot": 0.0201, "ball_carries": 10.5608, "total_progression": 41.7123, "progressive_carries": 1.2018, "key_pass": 0.5676, "shots_off_target": 0.3486, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.507, "opponent_faced": "Rayan Cherki", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Rayan Cherki", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back 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1.3445, "blocks": 0.3943, "goal_rate": 0.062, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0253, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.051, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "shots_on_target": 0.1585, "big_chances_created": 0.0335, "xgot": 0.0234, "ball_carries": 10.5608, "total_progression": 41.7123, "progressive_carries": 1.2018, "key_pass": 0.5676, "shots_off_target": 0.3486, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.507, "opponent_faced": "Rayan Cherki", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1953, "creation_factor": 1.1205 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.594, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3668, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8378, "team_expected_assists": 1.0361, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1662, "xa_scale": 1.2367, "opponent_lambda": 2.13, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0437, "after": 0.051 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6926, "tackles": 1.3193, "tackles_won": 0.8628, "clearances": 2.6876, "aerial_won": 0.9031, "total_shots": 0.5087, "rating": 6.6922, "minutes": 84.33, "total_pass": 37.1663, "accurate_pass": 30.4357, "duels_won": 3.7919, "total_long_balls": 3.3474, "accurate_long_balls": 1.255, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9964, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4392, "crosses_total": 2.2708, "crosses_accurate": 0.4669, "touches": 56.6651, "possession_lost": 12.051, 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"assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1953, "creation_factor": 1.1205, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1468, "fifa_rank": 524.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6926, "tackles": 1.3193, "tackles_won": 0.8628, "clearances": 2.6876, "aerial_won": 0.9031, "total_shots": 0.5087, "rating": 6.6922, "minutes": 84.33, "total_pass": 37.1663, "accurate_pass": 30.4357, "duels_won": 3.7919, "total_long_balls": 3.3474, "accurate_long_balls": 1.255, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0510, quality 0.845)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2237, "tackles": 1.6539, "tackles_won": 1.105, "clearances": 3.2514, "aerial_won": 1.6034, "total_shots": 0.4292, "rating": 7.1147, "minutes": 86.45, "total_pass": 74.9445, "accurate_pass": 67.5026, "duels_won": 5.9591, "total_long_balls": 8.2136, "accurate_long_balls": 5.108, "total_own_half_passes": 37.1554, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.4183, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.7892, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.0844, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 87.3385, "possession_lost": 9.5529, "dispossessed": 0.2047, "duels_lost": 1.9268, "aerial_lost": 0.5835, "total_contest": 0.5628, "won_contest": 0.5628, "ball_recovery": 4.659, "challenges_lost": 0.2047, "fouls": 1.0817, "fouls_drawn": 0.9417, "blocks": 0.903, "goals": 0.0, 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37.7892, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.0844, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 87.3385, "possession_lost": 9.5529, "dispossessed": 0.2047, "duels_lost": 1.9268, "aerial_lost": 0.5835, "total_contest": 0.5628, "won_contest": 0.5628, "ball_recovery": 4.659, "challenges_lost": 0.2047, "fouls": 1.065, "fouls_drawn": 0.9715, "blocks": 0.903, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22.7124, "total_progression": 102.6389, "progressive_carries": 0.7397, "key_pass": 0.5268, "shots_off_target": 0.4292 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0347, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9606, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Liverpool" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.2237, "after": 1.2645 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", 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34.0844, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 87.3385, "possession_lost": 9.5529, "dispossessed": 0.2047, "duels_lost": 1.9268, "aerial_lost": 0.5835, "total_contest": 0.5628, "won_contest": 0.5628, "ball_recovery": 4.659, "challenges_lost": 0.2047, "fouls": 1.065, "fouls_drawn": 0.9715, "blocks": 0.903, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22.7124, "total_progression": 102.6389, "progressive_carries": 0.7397, "key_pass": 0.5268, "shots_off_target": 0.4292, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.737, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical 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"dispossessed": 0.2047, "duels_lost": 1.9268, "aerial_lost": 0.5835, "total_contest": 0.5628, "won_contest": 0.5628, "ball_recovery": 4.659, "challenges_lost": 0.2047, "fouls": 1.065, "fouls_drawn": 0.9715, "blocks": 0.903, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0336, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22.7124, "total_progression": 102.6389, "progressive_carries": 0.7397, "key_pass": 0.5268, "shots_off_target": 0.4292, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.737, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.594, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3668, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8378, "team_expected_assists": 1.0361, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1662, "xa_scale": 1.2367, "opponent_lambda": 2.13, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0272, "after": 0.0336 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2645, "tackles": 1.6539, "tackles_won": 1.1083, "clearances": 3.2514, "aerial_won": 1.6034, "total_shots": 0.4292, "rating": 7.1147, "minutes": 86.45, "total_pass": 74.9445, "accurate_pass": 67.5026, "duels_won": 5.9591, "total_long_balls": 8.2136, "accurate_long_balls": 5.108, "total_own_half_passes": 37.1554, 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"description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2645, "tackles": 1.6539, "tackles_won": 1.1083, "clearances": 3.2514, "aerial_won": 1.6034, "total_shots": 0.4292, "rating": 7.1147, "minutes": 86.45, "total_pass": 74.9445, "accurate_pass": 67.5026, "duels_won": 5.9591, "total_long_balls": 8.2136, "accurate_long_balls": 5.108, "total_own_half_passes": 37.1554, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.4183, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.7892, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.0844, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 87.3385, "possession_lost": 9.5529, "dispossessed": 0.2047, "duels_lost": 1.9268, "aerial_lost": 0.5835, "total_contest": 0.5628, "won_contest": 0.5628, "ball_recovery": 4.659, "challenges_lost": 0.2047, "fouls": 1.065, "fouls_drawn": 0.9715, "blocks": 0.903, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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"log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.043781 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.029783 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011858 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.009328 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009159 } ], "others_margin": -0.007172 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0064, quality 0.650)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8973, "tackles": 1.5698, "tackles_won": 0.9219, "clearances": 3.3175, "aerial_won": 3.0362, "total_shots": 0.4247, "rating": 6.8407, "minutes": 78.66, "total_pass": 49.4376, "accurate_pass": 43.5748, "duels_won": 5.8548, "total_long_balls": 3.5749, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5282, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2882, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9978, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.577, "crosses_total": 1.3563, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 66.0088, "possession_lost": 10.0052, "dispossessed": 0.2646, "duels_lost": 2.2773, "aerial_lost": 1.2703, "total_contest": 0.5796, "won_contest": 0.4113, "ball_recovery": 3.7359, "challenges_lost": 0.0747, "fouls": 0.5277, "fouls_drawn": 0.1336, "blocks": 0.3488, "goals": 0.1068, 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"opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.59 (squad xG sum 1.3668, xG scale 1.1662, xA scale 1.2367, team xA 1.04 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.895, "tackles": 1.5698, "tackles_won": 0.9195, "clearances": 3.3175, "aerial_won": 3.0362, "total_shots": 0.4243, "rating": 6.8407, "minutes": 78.66, "total_pass": 49.4376, "accurate_pass": 43.5748, "duels_won": 5.8548, "total_long_balls": 3.5749, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5282, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2882, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9978, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.577, "crosses_total": 1.3528, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 66.0088, "possession_lost": 10.0052, "dispossessed": 0.2646, "duels_lost": 2.2773, "aerial_lost": 1.2703, "total_contest": 0.5796, "won_contest": 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"params": { "team_lambda": 1.594, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3668, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8378, "team_expected_assists": 1.0361, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1662, "xa_scale": 1.2367, "opponent_lambda": 2.13, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.032, "after": 0.0396 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.895, "tackles": 1.5698, "tackles_won": 0.9195, "clearances": 3.3175, "aerial_won": 3.0362, "total_shots": 0.4243, "rating": 6.8407, "minutes": 78.66, "total_pass": 49.4376, "accurate_pass": 43.5748, "duels_won": 5.8548, "total_long_balls": 3.5749, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5282, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2882, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9978, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 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1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.895, "tackles": 1.5698, "tackles_won": 0.9195, "clearances": 3.3175, "aerial_won": 3.0362, "total_shots": 0.4243, "rating": 6.8407, "minutes": 78.66, "total_pass": 49.4376, "accurate_pass": 43.5748, "duels_won": 5.8548, "total_long_balls": 3.5749, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5282, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2882, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9978, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1494, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.577, "crosses_total": 1.3528, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 66.0088, "possession_lost": 10.0052, "dispossessed": 0.2646, "duels_lost": 2.2773, "aerial_lost": 1.2703, "total_contest": 0.5796, "won_contest": 0.4113, "ball_recovery": 3.7359, "challenges_lost": 0.0747, "fouls": 0.5375, "fouls_drawn": 0.1333, "blocks": 0.3488, "goal_rate": 0.1065, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0293, "expected_assists": 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"totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.5574 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1712 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0757 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0685 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0543 } ], "others": -0.0582, "total": 1.8589, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.557365 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.171155 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.075705 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.068495 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.054263 } ], "others_margin": -0.058082 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.209786415100098, "model_output": 7.2098, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1018 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0953 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0315 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0301 } ], "others": 0.0612, "total": 7.2098, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.101794 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.095332 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.039515 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.031504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0125, quality 0.890)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.3168, "expected_assists": 0.1842, "assists": 0.1369, "assist_rate": 0.1369, "expected_goals": 0.1682, "goals": 0.243, "goal_rate": 0.243, "shots_on_target": 0.5956, "total_shots": 1.8821, "rating": 7.2098, "minutes": 88.51, "total_pass": 56.8679, "accurate_pass": 49.6516, "duels_won": 3.0359, "total_long_balls": 4.8433, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3591, "total_own_half_passes": 23.331, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6686, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.5368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.983, "crosses_total": 6.7658, "crosses_accurate": 2.0534, "touches": 80.0337, "possession_lost": 15.2372, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 5.6696, "aerial_won": 0.5843, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 0.8622, "tackles_won": 0.6404, "tackles": 1.3964, "clearances": 1.274, "total_contest": 1.0035, "won_contest": 0.3942, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 1.9008, "fouls_drawn": 0.661, "blocks": 0.3078, "big_chances_created": 0.8997, "big_chances_missed": 0.0841, "xgot": 0.2927, "ball_carries": 19.4866, "total_progression": 79.2674, "progressive_carries": 1.7112, "shots_off_target": 1.2865 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 91000000, "quality_factor": 0.8895, "boost_factor": 1.0125, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0094)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.3168, "expected_assists": 0.1842, "assists": 0.1356, "assist_rate": 0.1356, "expected_goals": 0.1682, "goals": 0.2453, "goal_rate": 0.2453, "shots_on_target": 0.5946, "total_shots": 1.8922, "rating": 7.2098, "minutes": 88.51, "total_pass": 56.8679, "accurate_pass": 49.6516, "duels_won": 3.0359, "total_long_balls": 4.8433, "accurate_long_balls": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0131, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3251, "tackles": 0.7041, "tackles_won": 0.4886, "clearances": 0.6517, "aerial_won": 0.2263, "total_shots": 0.1927, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 18.68, "total_pass": 8.9137, "accurate_pass": 7.2186, "duels_won": 1.3712, "total_long_balls": 0.45, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8332, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2354, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9832, "crosses_total": 1.2471, "crosses_accurate": 0.4546, "touches": 15.9421, "possession_lost": 4.5375, "dispossessed": 0.4076, "duels_lost": 1.5546, "aerial_lost": 0.3809, "total_contest": 0.8077, "won_contest": 0.3148, "ball_recovery": 1.2898, "challenges_lost": 0.2215, "fouls": 0.1678, "fouls_drawn": 0.3722, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 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1.7761, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8312, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9594, "crosses_total": 0.9909, "crosses_accurate": 0.3612, "touches": 12.6669, "possession_lost": 3.6053, "dispossessed": 0.4076, "duels_lost": 1.2352, "aerial_lost": 0.3809, "total_contest": 0.6418, "won_contest": 0.2501, "ball_recovery": 1.0248, "challenges_lost": 0.2215, "fouls": 0.1333, "fouls_drawn": 0.2957, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0061, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "shots_on_target": 0.0349, "big_chances_created": 0.4048, "xgot": 0.0032, "ball_carries": 1.7822, "total_progression": 11.1793, "progressive_carries": 0.2705, "key_pass": 0.5552, "shots_off_target": 0.1182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.356, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.84, "projection_minutes": 18.68, "minutes_scale": 0.7946, "appearance_probability": 0.356 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical 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0.0032, "ball_carries": 1.7822, "total_progression": 11.1793, "progressive_carries": 0.2705, "key_pass": 0.5552, "shots_off_target": 0.1182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.356, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2583, "tackles": 0.5594, "tackles_won": 0.3882, "clearances": 0.5178, "aerial_won": 0.1798, "total_shots": 0.1531, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 14.84, "total_pass": 7.0824, "accurate_pass": 5.7356, "duels_won": 1.0895, "total_long_balls": 0.3575, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2511, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7761, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8312, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9594, "crosses_total": 0.9909, "crosses_accurate": 0.3612, "touches": 12.6669, "possession_lost": 3.6053, "dispossessed": 0.4076, "duels_lost": 1.2352, "aerial_lost": 0.3809, "total_contest": 0.6418, "won_contest": 0.2501, "ball_recovery": 1.0248, "challenges_lost": 0.2215, "fouls": 0.1333, "fouls_drawn": 0.2957, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0061, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "shots_on_target": 0.0349, "big_chances_created": 0.4048, "xgot": 0.0032, "ball_carries": 1.7822, "total_progression": 11.1793, "progressive_carries": 0.2705, "key_pass": 0.5552, "shots_off_target": 0.1182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.356, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.84, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.749, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.356, "projected_substitutes": 4, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2583, "tackles": 0.5594, "tackles_won": 0.3882, "clearances": 0.5178, "aerial_won": 0.1798, "total_shots": 0.1531, "rating": 6.638, "minutes": 14.84, "total_pass": 7.0824, "accurate_pass": 5.7356, "duels_won": 1.0895, "total_long_balls": 0.3575, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2511, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7761, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8312, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9594, "crosses_total": 0.9909, "crosses_accurate": 0.3612, "touches": 12.6669, "possession_lost": 3.6053, "dispossessed": 0.4076, "duels_lost": 1.2352, "aerial_lost": 0.3809, "total_contest": 0.6418, "won_contest": 0.2501, "ball_recovery": 1.0248, "challenges_lost": 0.2215, "fouls": 0.1333, "fouls_drawn": 0.2957, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, 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"ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } } ] }, "Curtis Jones": { "player_id": 927353, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 185, "market_value": 33000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.9485, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 1.6137, "dispossessed": 0.3803, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.045, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "shots_on_target": 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"league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024024, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 79, "accurate_pass": 73, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023939, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0286, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 101, "accurate_pass": 88, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024005, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 54, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025035, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.196, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 84, "accurate_pass": 79, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 16 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024000, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 38, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024015, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0656, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 40, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023992, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0072, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023985, "match_date": "2026-03-03", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5776, "expected_assists": 0.0184, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1450, "combined_rank_score": 598.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 513.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8471, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 684.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9485, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Curtis Jones", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Estêvão", "ranking": 1445 }, { "player_name": "Shokhrukh Abdurakhmonov", "ranking": 1446 }, { "player_name": "Kuvonch Abraev", "ranking": 1447 }, { "player_name": "César Dutra", "ranking": 1448 }, { "player_name": "Samed Baždar", "ranking": 1449 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Álvaro García", "ranking": 1451 }, { "player_name": "Natan", "ranking": 1452 }, { "player_name": "Ayoze Pérez", "ranking": 1453 }, { "player_name": "Mike Penders", "ranking": 1454 }, { "player_name": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "ranking": 1455 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], 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}, { "match_date": "2026-03-03", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 1.548, "aerialWon": 0.3962, "totalClearance_p90": 1.6484, "totalTackle": 1.537, "totalPass": 60.9028 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3560020923614502, "model_output": 0.356, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3015 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0387 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0279 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0248 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0238 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.859, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0171 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0101 }, { 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"name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0164 } ], "others": 0.0902, "total": 0.7283, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.333417, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.775389 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.031693 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.028107 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.026676 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.025967 } ], "others_margin": 0.132112 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.5224796533584595, "model_output": 0.5225, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2228 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0652 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0412 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8578, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4137 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0257 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0179 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0104 } ], "others": 0.0347, "total": 0.5225, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.153422, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.658295 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.056217 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.037455 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.021308 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.021179 } ], "others_margin": 0.068747 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.9151178002357483, "model_output": 0.9151, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2968 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0817 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0344 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0202 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4412, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -1.9814 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2847 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0849 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.078 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0685 } ], "others": -0.0286, "total": 0.9151, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.235809, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.857524 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.216944 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.075039 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.074205 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.070125 } ], "others_margin": -0.030674 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.2347375601530075, "model_output": 0.2347, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1612 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1495 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.087 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3784, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8141 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2008 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.038 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0273 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0185 } ], "others": -0.045, "total": 0.2347, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320928, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.893142 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.439769 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.110451 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.0875 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.064202 } ], "others_margin": -0.175151 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.32511934638023376, "model_output": 0.3251, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2586 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0439 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.042 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0274 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0187 } ], "others": -0.0206, "total": 0.3251, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.258597 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.043887 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.041988 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.027352 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.01873 } ], "others_margin": -0.02056 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.948537349700928, "model_output": 6.9485, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0831 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0338 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0312 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0203 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0197 } ], "others": 0.042, "total": 6.9485, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.083055 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.033765 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.031169 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.020339 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.019714 } ], "others_margin": 0.042058 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1631, "tackles": 0.3337, "tackles_won": 0.2394, "clearances": 0.4193, "aerial_won": 0.1076, "total_shots": 0.1489, "rating": 6.9485, "minutes": 14.77, "total_pass": 10.3822, "accurate_pass": 9.5884, "duels_won": 0.7319, "total_long_balls": 0.4321, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2284, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6659, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3746, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2138, "crosses_total": 0.0875, "crosses_accurate": 0.0105, "touches": 14.0201, "possession_lost": 1.6137, "dispossessed": 0.3803, "duels_lost": 0.8575, "aerial_lost": 0.468, "total_contest": 0.0651, "won_contest": 0.0546, "ball_recovery": 1.1253, "challenges_lost": 0.9595, "fouls": 0.0262, "fouls_drawn": 0.203, "blocks": 0.0742, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.045, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "shots_on_target": 0.0888, "big_chances_created": 0.0107, "xgot": 0.0134, "ball_carries": 4.631, "total_progression": 11.2772, "progressive_carries": 0.2828, "key_pass": 0.1679, "shots_off_target": 0.0601, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.353, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.77 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1631, "tackles": 0.3337, "tackles_won": 0.2394, "clearances": 0.4193, "aerial_won": 0.1076, "total_shots": 0.1489, "rating": 6.9485, "minutes": 14.77, "total_pass": 10.3822, "accurate_pass": 9.5884, "duels_won": 0.7319, "total_long_balls": 0.4321, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2284, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6659, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3746, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2138, "crosses_total": 0.0875, "crosses_accurate": 0.0105, "touches": 14.0201, "possession_lost": 1.6137, 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"interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.026 } ], "others": -0.0542, "total": 0.4465, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.407978 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.056355 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.033566 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.032523 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.025961 } ], "others_margin": -0.054199 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.714346408843994, "model_output": 6.7143, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0893 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0059 } ], "others": -0.0156, "total": 6.7143, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08927 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023469 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.007333 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.006335 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.005871 } ], "others_margin": -0.015474 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0125, quality 0.887)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3232, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "assists": 0.0398, "assist_rate": 0.0398, "expected_goals": 0.0386, "goals": 0.041, "goal_rate": 0.041, "shots_on_target": 0.1353, "total_shots": 0.4521, "rating": 6.7143, "minutes": 19.89, "total_pass": 9.0082, "accurate_pass": 8.6085, "duels_won": 1.4576, "total_long_balls": 0.1972, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1972, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1016, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8695, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9065, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7389, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.8595, "possession_lost": 2.277, "dispossessed": 0.3945, "duels_lost": 1.6624, "aerial_won": 0.505, "aerial_lost": 0.285, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3398, "tackles": 0.4823, "clearances": 0.6596, "total_contest": 0.1677, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1426, "fouls": 0.6727, "fouls_drawn": 0.4703, "blocks": 0.1426, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8661, "total_progression": 1.2429, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3168 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 87000000, "quality_factor": 0.8873, "boost_factor": 1.0125, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.9 to 23.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.386, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assists": 0.0475, "assist_rate": 0.0475, "expected_goals": 0.0461, "goals": 0.049, "goal_rate": 0.049, "shots_on_target": 0.1616, "total_shots": 0.5399, "rating": 6.7143, "minutes": 23.75, "total_pass": 10.758, "accurate_pass": 10.2807, "duels_won": 1.7407, "total_long_balls": 0.2355, 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to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.386, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assists": 0.0475, "assist_rate": 0.0475, "expected_goals": 0.0461, "goals": 0.049, "goal_rate": 0.049, "shots_on_target": 0.1616, "total_shots": 0.5399, "rating": 6.7143, "minutes": 23.75, "total_pass": 10.758, "accurate_pass": 10.2807, "duels_won": 1.7407, "total_long_balls": 0.2355, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2355, "total_own_half_passes": 3.7041, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.4269, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0538, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8537, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.5516, "possession_lost": 2.7193, "dispossessed": 0.3945, "duels_lost": 1.9853, "aerial_won": 0.6031, "aerial_lost": 0.285, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4058, "tackles": 0.576, "clearances": 0.7877, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1426, "fouls": 0.8034, "fouls_drawn": 0.5617, "blocks": 0.1703, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4228, "total_progression": 1.4843, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3783, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.75 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.59 (squad xG sum 1.3668, xG scale 1.1662, xA scale 1.2367, team xA 1.04 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.386, "expected_assists": 0.0381, "assist_rate": 0.0475, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0538, "goal_rate": 0.049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1616, "total_shots": 0.5399, "rating": 6.7143, "minutes": 23.75, "total_pass": 10.758, "accurate_pass": 10.2807, "duels_won": 1.7407, "total_long_balls": 0.2355, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2355, "total_own_half_passes": 3.7041, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.4269, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0538, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8537, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.5516, "possession_lost": 2.7193, "dispossessed": 0.3945, "duels_lost": 1.9853, "aerial_won": 0.6031, "aerial_lost": 0.285, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4058, "tackles": 0.576, "clearances": 0.7877, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1426, "fouls": 0.8034, "fouls_drawn": 0.5617, "blocks": 0.1703, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4228, "total_progression": 1.4843, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3783, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.75, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.749, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0302, "creation_factor": 1.2067 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.594, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3668, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8378, "team_expected_assists": 1.0361, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1662, "xa_scale": 1.2367, "opponent_lambda": 2.13, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.58 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0461, "after": 0.0538 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0308, "after": 0.0381 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.386, "expected_assists": 0.0381, "assist_rate": 0.0475, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0538, "goal_rate": 0.049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1616, "total_shots": 0.5399, "rating": 6.7143, "minutes": 23.75, "total_pass": 10.758, "accurate_pass": 10.2807, "duels_won": 1.7407, "total_long_balls": 0.2355, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2355, "total_own_half_passes": 3.7041, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.4269, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0538, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8537, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.5516, "possession_lost": 2.7193, "dispossessed": 0.3945, "duels_lost": 1.9853, "aerial_won": 0.6031, "aerial_lost": 0.285, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4058, "tackles": 0.576, "clearances": 0.7877, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1426, "fouls": 0.8034, "fouls_drawn": 0.5617, "blocks": 0.1703, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4228, "total_progression": 1.4843, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3783, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.75, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.749, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0302, "creation_factor": 1.2067, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 162, "fifa_rank": 142.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.386, "expected_assists": 0.0381, "assist_rate": 0.0475, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0538, "goal_rate": 0.049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1616, "total_shots": 0.5399, "rating": 6.7143, "minutes": 23.75, "total_pass": 10.758, "accurate_pass": 10.2807, "duels_won": 1.7407, "total_long_balls": 0.2355, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2355, "total_own_half_passes": 3.7041, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.4269, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0538, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8537, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.5516, "possession_lost": 2.7193, "dispossessed": 0.3945, "duels_lost": 1.9853, "aerial_won": 0.6031, "aerial_lost": 0.285, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4058, "tackles": 0.576, "clearances": 0.7877, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1426, "fouls": 0.8034, "fouls_drawn": 0.5617, "blocks": 0.1703, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4228, "total_progression": 1.4843, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3783, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.75, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.749, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0304, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0302, "creation_factor": 1.2067, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0304, "scorer_weight": 0.0321, "squad_weight_total": 1.7089, "weight_share": 0.0188, "finishing_factor": 1.0302, "appearance_weight": 0.58, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "weight": 0.2544, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2544, "runner_up": "Florian Wirtz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2162 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 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0.1600690335035324, "model_output": 0.1601, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0966, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.009 } ], "others": 0.0545, "total": 0.1601, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.337105, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.495324 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.250124 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.139895 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.104915 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.089037 } ], "others_margin": 0.416309 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.30744853615760803, "model_output": 0.3074, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.108 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0886 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1706 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0338 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0367 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0308 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0124 } ], "others": 0.0403, "total": 0.3074, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.126872, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.747338 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.199011 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.178911 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.12867 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.047643 } ], "others_margin": 0.140527 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.5413963794708252, "model_output": 1.5414, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7329 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.5756 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1378 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0768 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0729 } ], "others": 0.4212, "total": 1.5414, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.732917 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.575612 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.137837 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.076819 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.072852 } ], "others_margin": 0.421212 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.050568580627441, "model_output": 7.0506, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0997 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0907 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0529 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0325 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0323 } ], "others": 0.0735, "total": 7.0506, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.099724 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.090702 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.052933 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.032483 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.032342 } ], "others_margin": 0.073434 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0064, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0953, "expected_assists": 0.1434, "assists": 0.2041, "assist_rate": 0.2041, "expected_goals": 0.0856, "goals": 0.1611, "goal_rate": 0.1611, "shots_on_target": 0.3094, "total_shots": 1.5513, "rating": 7.0506, "minutes": 29.76, "total_pass": 21.6159, "accurate_pass": 16.9471, "duels_won": 0.9127, "total_long_balls": 1.1469, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7248, "total_own_half_passes": 3.9591, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.194, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7532, "crosses_total": 2.6823, "crosses_accurate": 1.0064, "touches": 30.9474, "possession_lost": 9.1994, "dispossessed": 0.4624, "duels_lost": 1.5006, "aerial_won": 0.2282, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2282, "tackles": 0.2282, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.2664, "won_contest": 0.2282, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2282, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2282, "big_chances_missed": 0.4967, "xgot": 0.0104, "ball_carries": 9.3231, "total_progression": 45.8112, "progressive_carries": 1.6394, "shots_off_target": 1.2418 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0064, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 29.8 to 22.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8383, "expected_assists": 0.1098, "assists": 0.1562, "assist_rate": 0.1562, "expected_goals": 0.0655, "goals": 0.1233, "goal_rate": 0.1233, "shots_on_target": 0.2368, "total_shots": 1.1873, "rating": 7.0506, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 16.5442, "accurate_pass": 12.9708, "duels_won": 0.6986, "total_long_balls": 0.8778, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5547, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0302, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4446, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5141, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5263, "crosses_total": 2.053, "crosses_accurate": 0.7703, "touches": 23.6863, "possession_lost": 7.041, "dispossessed": 0.4624, "duels_lost": 1.1485, "aerial_won": 0.1747, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1747, "tackles": 0.1747, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.9693, "won_contest": 0.1747, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1747, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1747, "big_chances_missed": 0.3802, "xgot": 0.008, "ball_carries": 7.1356, "total_progression": 35.0626, "progressive_carries": 1.2548, "shots_off_target": 0.9504, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.78, "projection_minutes": 29.76, "minutes_scale": 0.7654, "appearance_probability": 0.535 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8383, "expected_assists": 0.1098, "assists": 0.1562, "assist_rate": 0.1562, "expected_goals": 0.0655, "goals": 0.1233, "goal_rate": 0.1233, "shots_on_target": 0.2368, "total_shots": 1.1873, "rating": 7.0506, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 16.5442, "accurate_pass": 12.9708, "duels_won": 0.6986, "total_long_balls": 0.8778, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5547, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0302, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4446, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5141, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5263, "crosses_total": 2.053, "crosses_accurate": 0.7703, "touches": 23.6863, "possession_lost": 7.041, "dispossessed": 0.4624, "duels_lost": 1.1485, "aerial_won": 0.1747, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1747, "tackles": 0.1747, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.9693, "won_contest": 0.1747, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1747, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1747, "big_chances_missed": 0.3802, "xgot": 0.008, "ball_carries": 7.1356, "total_progression": 35.0626, "progressive_carries": 1.2548, "shots_off_target": 0.9504, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.59 (squad xG sum 1.3668, xG scale 1.1662, xA scale 1.2367, team xA 1.04 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8383, "expected_assists": 0.1358, "assist_rate": 0.1562, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0764, "goal_rate": 0.1233, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2368, "total_shots": 1.1873, "rating": 7.0506, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 16.5442, "accurate_pass": 12.9708, "duels_won": 0.6986, "total_long_balls": 0.8778, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5547, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0302, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4446, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5141, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5263, "crosses_total": 2.053, "crosses_accurate": 0.7703, "touches": 23.6863, "possession_lost": 7.041, "dispossessed": 0.4624, "duels_lost": 1.1485, "aerial_won": 0.1747, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1747, "tackles": 0.1747, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.9693, "won_contest": 0.1747, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1747, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1747, "big_chances_missed": 0.3802, "xgot": 0.0093, "ball_carries": 7.1356, "total_progression": 35.0626, "progressive_carries": 1.2548, "shots_off_target": 0.9504, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.749, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.594, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3668, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8378, "team_expected_assists": 1.0361, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1662, "xa_scale": 1.2367, "opponent_lambda": 2.13, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.535 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0655, "after": 0.0764 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1098, "after": 0.1358 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 66.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8383, "expected_assists": 0.1358, "assist_rate": 0.1562, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0764, "goal_rate": 0.1233, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2368, "total_shots": 1.1873, "rating": 7.0506, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 16.5442, "accurate_pass": 12.9708, "duels_won": 0.6986, "total_long_balls": 0.8778, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5547, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0302, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4446, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5141, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5263, "crosses_total": 2.053, "crosses_accurate": 0.7703, "touches": 23.6863, "possession_lost": 7.041, "dispossessed": 0.4624, "duels_lost": 1.1485, "aerial_won": 0.1747, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1747, "tackles": 0.1747, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.9693, "won_contest": 0.1747, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1747, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1747, "big_chances_missed": 0.3802, "xgot": 0.0093, "ball_carries": 7.1356, "total_progression": 35.0626, "progressive_carries": 1.2548, "shots_off_target": 0.9504, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.749, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 66.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6843, "fifa_rank": 10183.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 66.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8383, "expected_assists": 0.1358, "assist_rate": 0.1562, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0764, "goal_rate": 0.1233, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2368, "total_shots": 1.1873, "rating": 7.0506, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 16.5442, "accurate_pass": 12.9708, "duels_won": 0.6986, "total_long_balls": 0.8778, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5547, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0302, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4446, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5141, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5263, "crosses_total": 2.053, "crosses_accurate": 0.7703, "touches": 23.6863, "possession_lost": 7.041, "dispossessed": 0.4624, "duels_lost": 1.1485, "aerial_won": 0.1747, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1747, "tackles": 0.1747, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.9693, "won_contest": 0.1747, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1747, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1747, "big_chances_missed": 0.3802, "xgot": 0.0093, "ball_carries": 7.1356, "total_progression": 35.0626, "progressive_carries": 1.2548, "shots_off_target": 0.9504, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.749, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0394, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 66.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0394, "scorer_weight": 0.0511, "squad_weight_total": 1.7089, "weight_share": 0.0299, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.535, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "weight": 0.2544, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2544, "runner_up": "Florian Wirtz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2162 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8383, "expected_assists": 0.1358, "assist_rate": 0.1562, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0764, "goal_rate": 0.1233, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2368, "total_shots": 1.1873, "rating": 7.0506, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 16.5442, "accurate_pass": 12.9708, "duels_won": 0.6986, "total_long_balls": 0.8778, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5547, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0302, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4446, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5141, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5263, "crosses_total": 2.053, "crosses_accurate": 0.7703, "touches": 23.6863, "possession_lost": 7.041, "dispossessed": 0.4624, "duels_lost": 1.1485, "aerial_won": 0.1747, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1747, "tackles": 0.1747, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.9693, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0328 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2421 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0334 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0279 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0255 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0169 } ], "others": -0.0178, "total": 0.3092, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.446167 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.080683 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.072926 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.071546 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.050255 } ], "others_margin": -0.055946 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.708302021026611, "model_output": 6.7083, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0659 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0142 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0325, "total": 6.7083, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065949 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.022551 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.018952 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.014214 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012732 } ], "others_margin": -0.032341 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"clearances": 0.361, "blocks": 0.2096, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0188, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7157, "total_progression": 11.9502, "progressive_carries": 0.398, "shots_off_target": 0.7711 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 88000000, "quality_factor": 0.8879, "boost_factor": 1.0239, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 19, "history_shrink": 0.2083, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.1 to 27.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2062, "goals": 0.2876, "goal_rate": 0.2876, "shots_on_target": 0.6396, "total_shots": 1.7321, "expected_assists": 0.0288, "key_pass": 0.4484, "rating": 6.7083, "minutes": 27.08, "total_pass": 4.0652, "accurate_pass": 2.3127, "duels_won": 0.9336, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5234, "crosses_total": 0.0, 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"shots_on_target": 0.6396, "total_shots": 1.7321, "expected_assists": 0.0288, "key_pass": 0.4484, "rating": 6.7083, "minutes": 27.08, "total_pass": 4.0652, "accurate_pass": 2.3127, "duels_won": 0.9336, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5234, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.656, "possession_lost": 4.1395, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 2.5183, "aerial_lost": 0.5992, "total_contest": 1.1578, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.1514, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5044, "tackles": 0.7189, "clearances": 0.5115, "blocks": 0.297, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0266, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4309, "total_progression": 16.9316, "progressive_carries": 0.5639, "shots_off_target": 1.0925, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.64, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.08 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.59 (squad xG sum 1.3668, xG scale 1.1662, xA scale 1.2367, team xA 1.04 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2405, "goal_rate": 0.2876, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6396, "total_shots": 1.7321, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "key_pass": 0.4484, "rating": 6.7083, "minutes": 27.08, "total_pass": 4.0652, "accurate_pass": 2.3127, "duels_won": 0.9336, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5234, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.656, "possession_lost": 4.1395, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 2.5183, "aerial_lost": 0.5992, "total_contest": 1.1578, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.1514, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5044, "tackles": 0.7189, "clearances": 0.5115, "blocks": 0.297, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.031, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4309, "total_progression": 16.9316, "progressive_carries": 0.5639, "shots_off_target": 1.0925, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.64, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.749, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.594, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3668, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8378, "team_expected_assists": 1.0361, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1662, "xa_scale": 1.2367, "opponent_lambda": 2.13, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.64 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2062, "after": 0.2405 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0288, "after": 0.0356 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2405, "goal_rate": 0.2876, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6396, "total_shots": 1.7321, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "key_pass": 0.4484, "rating": 6.7083, "minutes": 27.08, "total_pass": 4.0652, "accurate_pass": 2.3127, "duels_won": 0.9336, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5234, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.656, "possession_lost": 4.1395, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 2.5183, "aerial_lost": 0.5992, "total_contest": 1.1578, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.1514, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5044, "tackles": 0.7189, "clearances": 0.5115, "blocks": 0.297, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.031, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4309, "total_progression": 16.9316, "progressive_carries": 0.5639, "shots_off_target": 1.0925, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.64, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.749, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 236, "fifa_rank": 92.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2405, "goal_rate": 0.2876, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6396, "total_shots": 1.7321, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "key_pass": 0.4484, "rating": 6.7083, "minutes": 27.08, "total_pass": 4.0652, "accurate_pass": 2.3127, "duels_won": 0.9336, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5234, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.656, 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"finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1368, "scorer_weight": 0.1924, "squad_weight_total": 1.7089, "weight_share": 0.1126, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.64, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "weight": 0.2544, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2544, "runner_up": "Florian Wirtz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2162 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2405, "goal_rate": 0.2876, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6396, "total_shots": 1.7321, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "key_pass": 0.4484, "rating": 6.7083, "minutes": 27.08, "total_pass": 4.0652, "accurate_pass": 2.3127, 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"shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 476, "combined_rank_score": 283.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 422.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9214, "sofascore_appearances": 28.0, "fifa_rank": 144.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7181, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Hugo Ekitiké", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Marcus Rashford", "ranking": 471 }, { "player_name": "João Cancelo", "ranking": 472 }, { "player_name": "Oh-kyu Kim", "ranking": 473 }, { "player_name": "Oscar Lopez", "ranking": 474 }, { "player_name": "Eberechi Eze", "ranking": 475 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Manuel Ángel Castillo", 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"margin": -0.430935 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.132088 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.074396 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.044352 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.043672 } ], "others_margin": -0.069696 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4063553214073181, "model_output": 0.4064, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0328 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.273 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0292 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0266 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": 0.0252, "total": 0.4064, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.520571 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.07061 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.063906 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.027846 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.026138 } ], "others_margin": 0.063699 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.718132972717285, "model_output": 6.7181, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0964 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0141 } ], "others": 0.018, "total": 6.7181, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.096391 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.024685 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.024653 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.018768 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.014112 } ], "others_margin": 0.01807 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0170, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1516, "goals": 0.1288, "goal_rate": 0.1288, "shots_on_target": 0.3706, "total_shots": 1.0531, "expected_assists": 0.0417, "key_pass": 0.4133, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 24.05, "total_pass": 7.6748, "accurate_pass": 6.3364, "duels_won": 1.6139, "total_long_balls": 0.1172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7444, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4061, "crosses_total": 0.4719, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2765, "possession_lost": 4.4962, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.374, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.3707, "won_contest": 0.7945, "ball_recovery": 0.8418, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7815, "fouls_drawn": 0.3417, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0846, "tackles": 0.2225, "clearances": 0.638, "blocks": 0.1172, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 5.4827, "total_progression": 23.8012, "progressive_carries": 1.0763, "shots_off_target": 0.6825 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.1 to 27.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1705, "goals": 0.1448, "goal_rate": 0.1448, "shots_on_target": 0.4167, "total_shots": 1.1841, "expected_assists": 0.0469, "key_pass": 0.4647, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.7674, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.04, "projection_minutes": 24.05, "minutes_scale": 1.1244, "appearance_probability": 0.638 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1705, "goals": 0.1448, "goal_rate": 0.1448, "shots_on_target": 0.4167, "total_shots": 1.1841, "expected_assists": 0.0469, "key_pass": 0.4647, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.7674, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.59 (squad xG sum 1.3668, xG scale 1.1662, xA scale 1.2367, team xA 1.04 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1988, "goal_rate": 0.1448, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4167, "total_shots": 1.1841, "expected_assists": 0.058, "key_pass": 0.4647, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.7674, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.749, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8834, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.594, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3668, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8378, "team_expected_assists": 1.0361, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1662, "xa_scale": 1.2367, "opponent_lambda": 2.13, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.638 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1705, "after": 0.1988 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0469, "after": 0.058 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1988, "goal_rate": 0.1448, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4167, "total_shots": 1.1841, "expected_assists": 0.058, "key_pass": 0.4647, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.7674, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.749, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8834, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 476, "fifa_rank": 144.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1988, "goal_rate": 0.1448, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4167, "total_shots": 1.1841, "expected_assists": 0.058, "key_pass": 0.4647, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.7674, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.749, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.115, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8834, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.115, "scorer_weight": 0.112, "squad_weight_total": 1.7089, "weight_share": 0.0656, "finishing_factor": 0.8834, "appearance_weight": 0.638, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "weight": 0.2544, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2544, "runner_up": "Florian Wirtz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2162 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1988, "goal_rate": 0.1448, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4167, "total_shots": 1.1841, "expected_assists": 0.058, "key_pass": 0.4647, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.7674, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.749, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.115, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.036, "finishing_factor": 0.8834, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.036, "provider_weight": 0.0296, "squad_weight_total": 0.9369, "weight_share": 0.0316, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.638, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.1698, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1698, "runner_up": "Víctor Muñoz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1081, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominik Szoboszlai" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Alexander Isak": { "player_id": 823941, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 193, "market_value": 88000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2405, "goal_rate": 0.2876, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7083, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 4.1395, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.031, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.64, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.749, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1368, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0224, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363648, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7524, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.501, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363261, "match_date": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0239, quality 0.888)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1455, "goals": 0.203, "goal_rate": 0.203, "shots_on_target": 0.4514, "total_shots": 1.2225, "expected_assists": 0.0203, "key_pass": 0.3165, "rating": 6.7083, "minutes": 19.11, "total_pass": 2.8692, "accurate_pass": 1.6323, "duels_won": 0.6589, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3121, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0752, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.5209, "possession_lost": 2.9216, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 1.7774, "aerial_lost": 0.5992, "total_contest": 0.8172, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6435, "challenges_lost": 0.1514, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.356, "tackles": 0.5074, 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"crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.656, "possession_lost": 4.1395, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 2.5183, "aerial_lost": 0.5992, "total_contest": 1.1578, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.1514, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5044, "tackles": 0.7189, "clearances": 0.5115, "blocks": 0.297, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0266, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4309, "total_progression": 16.9316, "progressive_carries": 0.5639, "shots_off_target": 1.0925, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.64, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.08 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.08, "projection_minutes": 19.11, "minutes_scale": 1.4168, "appearance_probability": 0.64 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2062, "goals": 0.2876, "goal_rate": 0.2876, "shots_on_target": 0.6396, "total_shots": 1.7321, "expected_assists": 0.0288, "key_pass": 0.4484, "rating": 6.7083, "minutes": 27.08, "total_pass": 4.0652, "accurate_pass": 2.3127, "duels_won": 0.9336, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5234, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.656, "possession_lost": 4.1395, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 2.5183, "aerial_lost": 0.5992, "total_contest": 1.1578, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.1514, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5044, "tackles": 0.7189, "clearances": 0.5115, "blocks": 0.297, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0266, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4309, "total_progression": 16.9316, "progressive_carries": 0.5639, "shots_off_target": 1.0925, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.64, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.08 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.59 (squad xG sum 1.3668, xG scale 1.1662, xA scale 1.2367, team xA 1.04 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2405, "goal_rate": 0.2876, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6396, "total_shots": 1.7321, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "key_pass": 0.4484, "rating": 6.7083, "minutes": 27.08, "total_pass": 4.0652, "accurate_pass": 2.3127, "duels_won": 0.9336, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5234, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.656, "possession_lost": 4.1395, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 2.5183, "aerial_lost": 0.5992, "total_contest": 1.1578, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.1514, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5044, "tackles": 0.7189, "clearances": 0.5115, "blocks": 0.297, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.031, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4309, "total_progression": 16.9316, "progressive_carries": 0.5639, "shots_off_target": 1.0925, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.64, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.749, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.594, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3668, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8378, "team_expected_assists": 1.0361, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1662, "xa_scale": 1.2367, "opponent_lambda": 2.13, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.64 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2062, "after": 0.2405 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0288, "after": 0.0356 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2405, "goal_rate": 0.2876, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6396, "total_shots": 1.7321, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "key_pass": 0.4484, "rating": 6.7083, "minutes": 27.08, "total_pass": 4.0652, "accurate_pass": 2.3127, "duels_won": 0.9336, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5234, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.656, "possession_lost": 4.1395, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 2.5183, "aerial_lost": 0.5992, "total_contest": 1.1578, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.1514, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5044, "tackles": 0.7189, "clearances": 0.5115, "blocks": 0.297, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.031, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4309, "total_progression": 16.9316, "progressive_carries": 0.5639, "shots_off_target": 1.0925, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.64, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.749, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 236, "fifa_rank": 92.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2405, "goal_rate": 0.2876, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6396, "total_shots": 1.7321, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "key_pass": 0.4484, "rating": 6.7083, "minutes": 27.08, "total_pass": 4.0652, "accurate_pass": 2.3127, "duels_won": 0.9336, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5234, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.656, "possession_lost": 4.1395, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 2.5183, "aerial_lost": 0.5992, "total_contest": 1.1578, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.1514, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5044, "tackles": 0.7189, "clearances": 0.5115, "blocks": 0.297, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.031, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4309, "total_progression": 16.9316, "progressive_carries": 0.5639, "shots_off_target": 1.0925, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.64, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.749, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1368, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1368, "scorer_weight": 0.1924, "squad_weight_total": 1.7089, "weight_share": 0.1126, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.64, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "weight": 0.2544, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2544, "runner_up": "Florian Wirtz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2162 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2405, "goal_rate": 0.2876, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6396, "total_shots": 1.7321, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "key_pass": 0.4484, "rating": 6.7083, "minutes": 27.08, "total_pass": 4.0652, "accurate_pass": 2.3127, "duels_won": 0.9336, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5234, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.656, "possession_lost": 4.1395, "dispossessed": 0.2096, "duels_lost": 2.5183, "aerial_lost": 0.5992, "total_contest": 1.1578, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.1514, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5044, "tackles": 0.7189, "clearances": 0.5115, "blocks": 0.297, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.031, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4309, "total_progression": 16.9316, "progressive_carries": 0.5639, "shots_off_target": 1.0925, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.64, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.749, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1368, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0224, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0224, "provider_weight": 0.0182, "squad_weight_total": 0.9369, "weight_share": 0.0195, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.64, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.1698, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1698, "runner_up": "Víctor Muñoz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1081, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominik Szoboszlai" ] } ] } } ] }, "Hugo Ekitiké": { "player_id": 1048422, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 190, "market_value": 77000000, "stats": { 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"substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.749, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.115, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.036, "finishing_factor": 0.8834, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14024015, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023992, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4993, "expected_assists": 0.0408, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023985, "match_date": "2026-03-03", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0559, "expected_assists": 0.4759, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023976, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 8.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.2076, "expected_assists": 0.1417, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024013, "match_date": "2026-02-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7062, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", 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0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.732917 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.575612 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.137837 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.076819 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.072852 } ], "others_margin": 0.421212 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.050568580627441, "model_output": 7.0506, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0997 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0907 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0529 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0325 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0064, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0953, "expected_assists": 0.1434, "assists": 0.2041, "assist_rate": 0.2041, "expected_goals": 0.0856, "goals": 0.1611, "goal_rate": 0.1611, "shots_on_target": 0.3094, "total_shots": 1.5513, "rating": 7.0506, "minutes": 29.76, "total_pass": 21.6159, "accurate_pass": 16.9471, "duels_won": 0.9127, "total_long_balls": 1.1469, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7248, "total_own_half_passes": 3.9591, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.194, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7532, "crosses_total": 2.6823, "crosses_accurate": 1.0064, "touches": 30.9474, "possession_lost": 9.1994, "dispossessed": 0.4624, "duels_lost": 1.5006, "aerial_won": 0.2282, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2282, "tackles": 0.2282, "clearances": 0.0, 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{ "global_player_rank": 143, "combined_rank_score": 130.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 117.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.42, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 143.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9027, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Joško Gvardiol", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alisson", "ranking": 138 }, { "player_name": "Tasos Bakasetas", "ranking": 139 }, { "player_name": "Sang-Min Koo", "ranking": 140 }, { "player_name": "Gianluigi Donnarumma", "ranking": 141 }, { "player_name": "Samuel Lino", "ranking": 142 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Victor Osimhen", "ranking": 144 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Catena", "ranking": 145 }, { "player_name": "Mashkhur Mukhammadzhonov", "ranking": 146 }, { "player_name": "Esteban 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123243 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.057629 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.045483 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.033535 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.029787 } ], "others_margin": -0.00712 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.957108497619629, "model_output": 2.9571, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2968 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0817 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0344 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0202 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4412, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.4098 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3998 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2425 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2175 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 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"totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1423 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.1086 } ], "others": -0.1465, "total": 1.5765, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320928, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.176344 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.102643 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.080143 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.074823 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.061133 } ], "others_margin": -0.088923 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6316233277320862, "model_output": 0.6316, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0578 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0357 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0355 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0102 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0092 } ], "others": 0.0109, "total": 0.6316, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057843 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.035683 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.035521 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.010232 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.009165 } ], "others_margin": 0.010859 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.90274715423584, "model_output": 6.9027, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0125 } ], "others": 0.0371, "total": 6.9027, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.031099 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.026388 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.021548 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.013085 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.012453 } ], "others_margin": 0.03711 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0191, quality 0.861)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0188, "tackles": 1.6755, "tackles_won": 1.0333, "clearances": 3.0136, "aerial_won": 1.6066, "total_shots": 0.6437, "rating": 6.9027, "minutes": 83.89, "total_pass": 52.5506, "accurate_pass": 45.7233, "duels_won": 5.2663, "total_long_balls": 3.0512, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3148, "total_own_half_passes": 23.817, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3197, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.7336, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.4037, "crosses_total": 0.3342, "crosses_accurate": 0.188, "touches": 69.4431, "possession_lost": 9.358, "dispossessed": 0.6084, "duels_lost": 3.8743, "aerial_lost": 2.206, "total_contest": 0.7162, "won_contest": 0.5526, "ball_recovery": 3.7167, "challenges_lost": 0.2185, "fouls": 0.6894, "fouls_drawn": 0.8224, "blocks": 0.5864, "goals": 0.1362, 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"total_opp_half_passes": 28.7336, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.4037, "crosses_total": 0.344, "crosses_accurate": 0.188, "touches": 69.4431, "possession_lost": 9.358, "dispossessed": 0.6084, "duels_lost": 3.8743, "aerial_lost": 2.206, "total_contest": 0.7162, "won_contest": 0.5526, "ball_recovery": 3.7167, "challenges_lost": 0.2185, "fouls": 0.6942, "fouls_drawn": 0.8109, "blocks": 0.5864, "goals": 0.1415, "goal_rate": 0.1415, "assists": 0.3186, "assist_rate": 0.3186, "expected_goals": 0.065, "expected_assists": 0.128, "shots_on_target": 0.2564, "big_chances_created": 0.168, "xgot": 0.1419, "ball_carries": 20.6711, "total_progression": 77.2, "progressive_carries": 1.7007, "key_pass": 0.5225, "shots_off_target": 0.3908 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0139, "history_matches": 23, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9321, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.8224, 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"model_output": 0.5893, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0456 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0349 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0219 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.019 } ], "others": 0.0089, "total": 0.5893, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.045619 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.034862 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.024671 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.021905 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.019036 } ], "others_margin": 0.008949 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.190691947937012, "model_output": 7.1907, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.098 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0833 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0387 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0324 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0314 } ], "others": 0.1209, "total": 7.1907, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.09796 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.083298 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.038719 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.032427 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0120, quality 0.864)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9382, "tackles": 1.0621, "tackles_won": 0.569, "clearances": 4.4689, "aerial_won": 3.0172, "total_shots": 0.5964, "rating": 7.1907, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 80.2561, "accurate_pass": 74.9943, "duels_won": 5.3145, "total_long_balls": 3.6606, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0192, "total_own_half_passes": 40.159, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.2611, "total_opp_half_passes": 40.0971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.7332, "crosses_total": 0.2185, "crosses_accurate": 0.0116, "touches": 93.4268, "possession_lost": 6.8049, "dispossessed": 0.3982, "duels_lost": 2.7116, "aerial_lost": 1.4754, "total_contest": 0.5893, "won_contest": 0.5733, "ball_recovery": 3.5479, "challenges_lost": 0.2026, "fouls": 0.6197, "fouls_drawn": 1.2259, "blocks": 0.5911, "goals": 0.1081, 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}, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0193, "total": 0.5574, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.041369 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.03307 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.028067 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.015994 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.014188 } ], "others_margin": -0.019249 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.072691917419434, "model_output": 7.0727, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0959 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0877 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0383 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0184 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0177 } ], "others": 0.0641, "total": 7.0727, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.095897 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.087725 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.038315 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.018443 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.017676 } ], "others_margin": 0.064018 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 29, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0145, quality 0.853)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9195, "tackles": 0.8818, "tackles_won": 0.6438, "clearances": 4.8159, "aerial_won": 2.196, "total_shots": 0.5655, "rating": 7.0727, "minutes": 88.01, "total_pass": 77.6406, "accurate_pass": 71.5968, "duels_won": 3.3789, "total_long_balls": 4.9662, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5248, "total_own_half_passes": 43.7722, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.8747, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.8684, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.722, "crosses_total": 0.2709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0918, "touches": 86.5467, "possession_lost": 6.7299, "dispossessed": 0.0339, "duels_lost": 3.1847, "aerial_lost": 1.4758, "total_contest": 0.5087, "won_contest": 0.3054, "ball_recovery": 2.8171, "challenges_lost": 0.4585, "fouls": 1.1668, "fouls_drawn": 0.2157, "blocks": 0.4936, "goals": 0.0222, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1356 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0548 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0262 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0243 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0092 } ], "others": 0.0118, "total": 0.463, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.135643 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.054822 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.026187 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.02427 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.009224 } ], "others_margin": 0.011771 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 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0.002584 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 34, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0111, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9171, "tackles": 1.4064, "tackles_won": 0.9759, "clearances": 2.7756, "aerial_won": 1.1812, "total_shots": 0.4681, "rating": 6.9505, "minutes": 86.53, "total_pass": 60.0121, "accurate_pass": 53.4392, "duels_won": 4.6915, "total_long_balls": 3.5155, "accurate_long_balls": 1.795, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9092, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.1887, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.5299, "crosses_total": 1.8956, "crosses_accurate": 0.2538, "touches": 81.6657, "possession_lost": 11.4769, "dispossessed": 0.4669, "duels_lost": 2.9357, "aerial_lost": 0.3797, "total_contest": 2.0062, "won_contest": 1.1639, "ball_recovery": 4.5419, "challenges_lost": 0.7118, "fouls": 0.5366, "fouls_drawn": 0.5861, "blocks": 0.5632, "goals": 0.0008, "goal_rate": 0.0008, "assists": 0.0689, "assist_rate": 0.0689, "expected_goals": 0.0034, "expected_assists": 0.0437, "shots_on_target": 0.0361, "big_chances_created": 0.0936, "xgot": 0.0159, "ball_carries": 20.7616, "total_progression": 65.4625, "progressive_carries": 1.6148, "key_pass": 0.7349, "shots_off_target": 0.432 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0111, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0021)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9152, "tackles": 1.4064, "tackles_won": 0.9739, "clearances": 2.7756, "aerial_won": 1.1812, "total_shots": 0.4671, "rating": 6.9505, "minutes": 86.53, "total_pass": 60.0121, "accurate_pass": 53.4392, "duels_won": 4.6915, "total_long_balls": 3.5155, "accurate_long_balls": 1.795, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9092, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.1887, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.5299, "crosses_total": 1.9016, "crosses_accurate": 0.2538, "touches": 81.6657, "possession_lost": 11.4769, "dispossessed": 0.4669, "duels_lost": 2.9357, "aerial_lost": 0.3797, "total_contest": 2.0062, "won_contest": 1.1639, "ball_recovery": 4.5419, "challenges_lost": 0.7118, "fouls": 0.5355, "fouls_drawn": 0.5899, "blocks": 0.5632, "goals": 0.0008, "goal_rate": 0.0008, "assists": 0.0688, "assist_rate": 0.0688, "expected_goals": 0.0034, "expected_assists": 0.0437, "shots_on_target": 0.036, "big_chances_created": 0.0936, "xgot": 0.0159, "ball_carries": 20.7616, "total_progression": 65.4625, "progressive_carries": 1.6148, "key_pass": 0.7349, "shots_off_target": 0.432 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0021, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9614, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.8956, "after": 1.9016 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9152, "tackles": 1.4064, "tackles_won": 0.9739, "clearances": 2.7756, "aerial_won": 1.1812, "total_shots": 0.468, "rating": 6.9505, "minutes": 86.53, "total_pass": 60.0121, "accurate_pass": 53.4392, "duels_won": 4.6915, "total_long_balls": 3.5155, "accurate_long_balls": 1.795, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9092, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.1887, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.5299, "crosses_total": 1.9016, "crosses_accurate": 0.2538, "touches": 81.6657, "possession_lost": 11.4769, "dispossessed": 0.4669, "duels_lost": 2.9357, "aerial_lost": 0.3797, "total_contest": 2.0062, "won_contest": 1.1639, "ball_recovery": 4.5419, "challenges_lost": 0.7118, "fouls": 0.5355, "fouls_drawn": 0.5899, "blocks": 0.5632, "goals": 0.0008, "goal_rate": 0.0008, "assists": 0.0688, "assist_rate": 0.0688, "expected_goals": 0.0034, "expected_assists": 0.0437, "shots_on_target": 0.036, "big_chances_created": 0.0936, "xgot": 0.0159, "ball_carries": 20.7616, "total_progression": 65.4625, "progressive_carries": 1.6148, "key_pass": 0.7349, "shots_off_target": 0.432 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9152, "tackles": 1.4064, "tackles_won": 0.9739, "clearances": 2.7756, "aerial_won": 1.1812, "total_shots": 0.468, "rating": 6.9505, "minutes": 86.53, "total_pass": 60.0121, "accurate_pass": 53.4392, "duels_won": 4.6915, "total_long_balls": 3.5155, "accurate_long_balls": 1.795, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9092, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.1887, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.5299, "crosses_total": 1.9016, "crosses_accurate": 0.2538, "touches": 81.6657, "possession_lost": 11.4769, "dispossessed": 0.4669, "duels_lost": 2.9357, "aerial_lost": 0.3797, "total_contest": 2.0062, "won_contest": 1.1639, "ball_recovery": 4.5419, "challenges_lost": 0.7118, "fouls": 0.5355, "fouls_drawn": 0.5899, "blocks": 0.5632, "goals": 0.0008, "goal_rate": 0.0008, "assists": 0.0688, "assist_rate": 0.0688, "expected_goals": 0.0034, "expected_assists": 0.0437, "shots_on_target": 0.036, "big_chances_created": 0.0936, "xgot": 0.0159, "ball_carries": 20.7616, "total_progression": 65.4625, "progressive_carries": 1.6148, "key_pass": 0.7349, "shots_off_target": 0.432, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.495, "opponent_faced": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.13 (squad xG sum 1.6547, xG scale 1.2873, xA scale 1.2450, team xA 1.70 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9152, "tackles": 1.4064, "tackles_won": 0.9739, "clearances": 2.7756, "aerial_won": 1.1812, "total_shots": 0.468, "rating": 6.9505, "minutes": 86.53, "total_pass": 60.0121, "accurate_pass": 53.4392, "duels_won": 4.6915, "total_long_balls": 3.5155, "accurate_long_balls": 1.795, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9092, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.1887, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.5299, "crosses_total": 1.9016, "crosses_accurate": 0.2538, "touches": 81.6657, "possession_lost": 11.4769, "dispossessed": 0.4669, "duels_lost": 2.9357, "aerial_lost": 0.3797, "total_contest": 2.0062, "won_contest": 1.1639, "ball_recovery": 4.5419, "challenges_lost": 0.7118, "fouls": 0.5355, "fouls_drawn": 0.5899, "blocks": 0.5632, "goal_rate": 0.0008, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0688, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0544, "shots_on_target": 0.036, "big_chances_created": 0.0936, "xgot": 0.0205, "ball_carries": 20.7616, "total_progression": 65.4625, "progressive_carries": 1.6148, "key_pass": 0.7349, "shots_off_target": 0.432, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.495, "opponent_faced": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9513, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.13, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6547, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3687, "team_expected_assists": 1.704, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2873, "xa_scale": 1.245, "opponent_lambda": 1.594, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0437, "after": 0.0544 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9152, "tackles": 1.4064, "tackles_won": 0.9739, "clearances": 2.7756, "aerial_won": 1.1812, "total_shots": 0.468, "rating": 6.9505, "minutes": 86.53, "total_pass": 60.0121, "accurate_pass": 53.4392, "duels_won": 4.6915, "total_long_balls": 3.5155, "accurate_long_balls": 1.795, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9092, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.1887, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.5299, "crosses_total": 1.9016, "crosses_accurate": 0.2538, "touches": 81.6657, "possession_lost": 11.4769, "dispossessed": 0.4669, "duels_lost": 2.9357, "aerial_lost": 0.3797, "total_contest": 2.0062, "won_contest": 1.1639, "ball_recovery": 4.5419, "challenges_lost": 0.7118, "fouls": 0.5355, "fouls_drawn": 0.5899, "blocks": 0.5632, "goal_rate": 0.0008, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0688, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0544, "shots_on_target": 0.036, "big_chances_created": 0.0936, "xgot": 0.0205, "ball_carries": 20.7616, "total_progression": 65.4625, "progressive_carries": 1.6148, "key_pass": 0.7349, "shots_off_target": 0.432, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.495, "opponent_faced": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9513, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 661, "fifa_rank": 276.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9152, "tackles": 1.4064, "tackles_won": 0.9739, "clearances": 2.7756, "aerial_won": 1.1812, "total_shots": 0.468, "rating": 6.9505, "minutes": 86.53, "total_pass": 60.0121, "accurate_pass": 53.4392, "duels_won": 4.6915, "total_long_balls": 3.5155, "accurate_long_balls": 1.795, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9092, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.1887, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.5299, "crosses_total": 1.9016, "crosses_accurate": 0.2538, "touches": 81.6657, "possession_lost": 11.4769, "dispossessed": 0.4669, "duels_lost": 2.9357, "aerial_lost": 0.3797, "total_contest": 2.0062, "won_contest": 1.1639, "ball_recovery": 4.5419, "challenges_lost": 0.7118, "fouls": 0.5355, "fouls_drawn": 0.5899, "blocks": 0.5632, "goal_rate": 0.0008, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0688, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0544, "shots_on_target": 0.036, "big_chances_created": 0.0936, "xgot": 0.0205, "ball_carries": 20.7616, "total_progression": 65.4625, "progressive_carries": 1.6148, "key_pass": 0.7349, "shots_off_target": 0.432, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.495, "opponent_faced": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0044, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9513, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0044, "scorer_weight": 0.0042, "squad_weight_total": 2.4515, "weight_share": 0.0017, "finishing_factor": 0.9513, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 0.8954, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8954, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3473 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 0.8954, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.381, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3473 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9152, "tackles": 1.4064, "tackles_won": 0.9739, "clearances": 2.7756, "aerial_won": 1.1812, "total_shots": 0.468, "rating": 6.9505, "minutes": 86.53, "total_pass": 60.0121, "accurate_pass": 53.4392, "duels_won": 4.6915, "total_long_balls": 3.5155, "accurate_long_balls": 1.795, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8234, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9092, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.1887, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.5299, "crosses_total": 1.9016, "crosses_accurate": 0.2538, "touches": 81.6657, "possession_lost": 11.4769, "dispossessed": 0.4669, "duels_lost": 2.9357, "aerial_lost": 0.3797, "total_contest": 2.0062, "won_contest": 1.1639, "ball_recovery": 4.5419, "challenges_lost": 0.7118, "fouls": 0.5355, "fouls_drawn": 0.5899, "blocks": 0.5632, "goal_rate": 0.0008, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0688, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0044, "expected_assists": 0.0544, "shots_on_target": 0.036, "big_chances_created": 0.0936, "xgot": 0.0205, "ball_carries": 20.7616, "total_progression": 65.4625, "progressive_carries": 1.6148, "key_pass": 0.7349, "shots_off_target": 0.432, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.495, "opponent_faced": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0044, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0529, "finishing_factor": 0.9513, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0529, "provider_weight": 0.068, "squad_weight_total": 1.7761, "weight_share": 0.0383, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rayan Cherki", "weight": 0.3217, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3217, "runner_up": "Antoine Semenyo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2784, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] }, { "n": 2, "player": "Antoine Semenyo", "weight": 0.2784, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2784, "runner_up": "Joško Gvardiol", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1992, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] }, "Gianluigi Donnarumma": { "player_id": 824509, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 196, "market_value": 46000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0319, "rating": 6.8876, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 19, "total_long_balls": 12, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 36, 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"home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.1892 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 24, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 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0.2403, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.126872, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.13862 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119435 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.113941 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.070055 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.069948 } ], "others_margin": -0.025742 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8894118666648865, "model_output": 0.8894, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1331 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0718 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0488 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0329 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0283 } ], "others": -0.1177, "total": 0.8894, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.133087 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.07176 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.048844 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.032911 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.028269 } ], "others_margin": -0.117695 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.3267340660095215, "model_output": 7.3267, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1186 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0492 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0356 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0307 } ], "others": 0.0825, "total": 7.3267, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.159668 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.118552 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.049203 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.035591 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.030728 } ], "others_margin": 0.082635 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 42, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0121, quality 0.893)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1924, "expected_assists": 0.1315, "assists": 0.0856, "assist_rate": 0.0856, "expected_goals": 0.0547, "goals": 0.0883, "goal_rate": 0.0883, "shots_on_target": 0.2432, "total_shots": 0.9002, "rating": 7.3267, "minutes": 85.28, "total_pass": 75.4445, "accurate_pass": 66.4595, "duels_won": 7.1369, "total_long_balls": 5.3387, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6568, "total_own_half_passes": 34.2876, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.8654, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.1568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.5942, "crosses_total": 3.1655, "crosses_accurate": 0.9402, "touches": 96.6082, "possession_lost": 14.5118, "dispossessed": 1.1116, "duels_lost": 5.2825, "aerial_won": 1.3241, "aerial_lost": 1.2569, "interceptions": 1.3659, "tackles_won": 1.3722, "tackles": 2.5819, 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"league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 49, "combined_rank_score": 60.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 23.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.05, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 97.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.2351, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Rayan Cherki", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Euller", "ranking": 44 }, { "player_name": "Bukayo Saka", "ranking": 45 }, { "player_name": "Federico Valverde", "ranking": 46 }, { "player_name": "Ayrton Lucas", "ranking": 47 }, { "player_name": "Giorgian de Arrascaeta", "ranking": 48 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Rodri", "ranking": 50 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Serafim", "ranking": 51 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Frizzo", "ranking": 52 }, { "player_name": "Florian Wirtz", "ranking": 53 }, { "player_name": "Martín Zubimendi", "ranking": 54 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.762, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", 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0.0373 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0966, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0251 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0148 } ], "others": 0.0873, "total": 0.2771, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.337105, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.230866 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.170141 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.099009 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.094046 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.081208 } ], "others_margin": 0.378357 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.8114746809005737, "model_output": 0.8115, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.108 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0886 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1129 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0749 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0558 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0383 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0373 } ], "others": 0.1683, "total": 0.8115, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.126872, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.29894 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.158131 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.103512 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.065377 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.05978 } ], "others_margin": 0.23223 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.6645679473876953, "model_output": 2.6646, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.6317 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1867 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.1143 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.088 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0742 } ], "others": 0.5797, "total": 2.6646, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.631693 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.186667 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.114331 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.088041 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.074188 } ], "others_margin": 0.579667 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.235122203826904, "model_output": 7.2351, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1242 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1151 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0517 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0315 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0278 } ], "others": 0.0974, "total": 7.2351, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.124161 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.11511 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.051689 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.031466 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.027841 } ], "others_margin": 0.097433 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 23, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0135, quality 0.893)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.5751, "expected_assists": 0.2209, "assists": 0.26, "assist_rate": 0.26, "expected_goals": 0.2119, "goals": 0.2808, "goal_rate": 0.2808, "shots_on_target": 0.8224, "total_shots": 2.7005, "rating": 7.2351, "minutes": 75.46, "total_pass": 58.8302, "accurate_pass": 52.4391, "duels_won": 3.0386, "total_long_balls": 3.5082, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1905, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0421, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.0844, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.397, "crosses_total": 2.9661, "crosses_accurate": 1.1082, "touches": 75.9524, "possession_lost": 13.0345, "dispossessed": 1.4907, "duels_lost": 4.5997, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3156, "interceptions": 0.2335, "tackles_won": 0.2623, "tackles": 0.4198, "clearances": 0.4481, "total_contest": 3.1114, "won_contest": 1.5713, "challenges_lost": 0.404, "fouls": 0.945, "fouls_drawn": 1.0475, "blocks": 0.016, "big_chances_created": 0.4905, "big_chances_missed": 0.0595, "xgot": 0.3668, "ball_carries": 27.1212, "total_progression": 92.762, "progressive_carries": 3.4612, "shots_off_target": 1.8781 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 98000000, "quality_factor": 0.8926, "boost_factor": 1.0135, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0060)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.5751, "expected_assists": 0.2209, "assists": 0.2669, "assist_rate": 0.2669, "expected_goals": 0.2119, "goals": 0.2876, "goal_rate": 0.2876, "shots_on_target": 0.83, "total_shots": 2.6967, "rating": 7.2351, "minutes": 75.46, "total_pass": 58.8302, "accurate_pass": 52.4391, "duels_won": 3.0386, "total_long_balls": 3.5082, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1905, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0421, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.0844, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.397, "crosses_total": 2.9735, "crosses_accurate": 1.1082, "touches": 75.9524, "possession_lost": 13.0345, "dispossessed": 1.4907, "duels_lost": 4.5997, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3156, "interceptions": 0.2321, "tackles_won": 0.2607, "tackles": 0.4198, "clearances": 0.4481, "total_contest": 3.1114, "won_contest": 1.5713, "challenges_lost": 0.404, "fouls": 0.9562, "fouls_drawn": 1.0412, "blocks": 0.016, "big_chances_created": 0.4905, "big_chances_missed": 0.0595, "xgot": 0.3668, "ball_carries": 27.1212, "total_progression": 92.762, "progressive_carries": 3.4612, "shots_off_target": 1.8781 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.006, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8384, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.945, "after": 0.9562 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8224, "after": 0.83 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.9661, "after": 2.9735 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.26, "after": 0.2669 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2808, "after": 0.2876 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.0475, "after": 1.0412 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.5751, "expected_assists": 0.2209, "assists": 0.2669, "assist_rate": 0.2669, "expected_goals": 0.2119, "goals": 0.2876, "goal_rate": 0.2876, "shots_on_target": 0.83, "total_shots": 2.7081, "rating": 7.2351, "minutes": 75.46, "total_pass": 58.8302, "accurate_pass": 52.4391, "duels_won": 3.0386, "total_long_balls": 3.5082, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1905, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0421, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.0844, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.397, "crosses_total": 2.9735, "crosses_accurate": 1.1082, "touches": 75.9524, "possession_lost": 13.0345, "dispossessed": 1.4907, "duels_lost": 4.5997, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3156, "interceptions": 0.2321, "tackles_won": 0.2607, "tackles": 0.4198, "clearances": 0.4481, "total_contest": 3.1114, "won_contest": 1.5713, "challenges_lost": 0.404, "fouls": 0.9562, "fouls_drawn": 1.0412, "blocks": 0.016, "big_chances_created": 0.4905, "big_chances_missed": 0.0595, "xgot": 0.3668, "ball_carries": 27.1212, "total_progression": 92.762, "progressive_carries": 3.4612, "shots_off_target": 1.8781 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.5751, "expected_assists": 0.2209, "assists": 0.2669, "assist_rate": 0.2669, "expected_goals": 0.2158, "goals": 0.2929, "goal_rate": 0.2929, "shots_on_target": 0.8454, "total_shots": 2.7585, "rating": 7.2351, "minutes": 75.46, "total_pass": 58.8302, "accurate_pass": 52.4391, "duels_won": 3.0386, "total_long_balls": 3.5082, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1905, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0421, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.0844, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.397, "crosses_total": 2.9735, "crosses_accurate": 1.1082, "touches": 75.9524, "possession_lost": 13.0345, "dispossessed": 1.4907, "duels_lost": 4.5997, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3156, "interceptions": 0.2321, "tackles_won": 0.2607, "tackles": 0.4198, "clearances": 0.4481, "total_contest": 3.1114, "won_contest": 1.5713, "challenges_lost": 0.404, "fouls": 0.9562, "fouls_drawn": 1.0412, "blocks": 0.016, "big_chances_created": 0.4905, "big_chances_missed": 0.0606, "xgot": 0.3736, "ball_carries": 27.1212, "total_progression": 92.762, "progressive_carries": 3.4612, "shots_off_target": 1.913, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0186, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.493, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Miloš Kerkez", "opponent_faced": "Miloš Kerkez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Miloš Kerkez", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.493, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0186, "skill_edge": 0.0286, "height_edge": -0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.8926, "defender_skill": 0.829, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Miloš Kerkez", "market_value": 36000000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.829 } ], "xg_override": 0.2158 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.7081, "after": 2.7585 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.8781, "after": 1.913 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.83, "after": 0.8454 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.3668, "after": 0.3736 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2876, "after": 0.2929 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.13 (squad xG sum 1.6547, xG scale 1.2873, xA scale 1.2450, team xA 1.70 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.5751, "expected_assists": 0.275, "assist_rate": 0.2669, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2778, "goal_rate": 0.2929, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8454, "total_shots": 2.7585, "rating": 7.2351, "minutes": 75.46, "total_pass": 58.8302, "accurate_pass": 52.4391, "duels_won": 3.0386, "total_long_balls": 3.5082, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1905, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0421, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.0844, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.397, "crosses_total": 2.9735, "crosses_accurate": 1.1082, "touches": 75.9524, "possession_lost": 13.0345, "dispossessed": 1.4907, "duels_lost": 4.5997, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3156, "interceptions": 0.2321, "tackles_won": 0.2607, "tackles": 0.4198, "clearances": 0.4481, "total_contest": 3.1114, "won_contest": 1.5713, "challenges_lost": 0.404, "fouls": 0.9562, "fouls_drawn": 1.0412, "blocks": 0.016, "big_chances_created": 0.4905, "big_chances_missed": 0.0606, "xgot": 0.4809, "ball_carries": 27.1212, "total_progression": 92.762, "progressive_carries": 3.4612, "shots_off_target": 1.913, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0186, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.493, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Miloš Kerkez", "opponent_faced": "Miloš Kerkez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1698 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.13, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6547, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3687, "team_expected_assists": 1.704, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2873, "xa_scale": 1.245, "opponent_lambda": 1.594, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2158, "after": 0.2778 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.2209, "after": 0.275 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.5751, "expected_assists": 0.275, "assist_rate": 0.2669, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2778, "goal_rate": 0.2929, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8454, "total_shots": 2.7585, "rating": 7.2351, "minutes": 75.46, "total_pass": 58.8302, "accurate_pass": 52.4391, "duels_won": 3.0386, "total_long_balls": 3.5082, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1905, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0421, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.0844, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.397, "crosses_total": 2.9735, "crosses_accurate": 1.1082, "touches": 75.9524, "possession_lost": 13.0345, "dispossessed": 1.4907, "duels_lost": 4.5997, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3156, "interceptions": 0.2321, "tackles_won": 0.2607, "tackles": 0.4198, "clearances": 0.4481, "total_contest": 3.1114, "won_contest": 1.5713, "challenges_lost": 0.404, "fouls": 0.9562, "fouls_drawn": 1.0412, "blocks": 0.016, "big_chances_created": 0.4905, "big_chances_missed": 0.0606, "xgot": 0.4809, "ball_carries": 27.1212, "total_progression": 92.762, "progressive_carries": 3.4612, "shots_off_target": 1.913, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0186, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.493, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Miloš Kerkez", "opponent_faced": "Miloš Kerkez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1698, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 49, "fifa_rank": 97.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.5751, "expected_assists": 0.275, "assist_rate": 0.2669, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2778, "goal_rate": 0.2929, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8454, "total_shots": 2.7585, "rating": 7.2351, "minutes": 75.46, "total_pass": 58.8302, "accurate_pass": 52.4391, "duels_won": 3.0386, "total_long_balls": 3.5082, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1905, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0421, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.0844, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.397, "crosses_total": 2.9735, "crosses_accurate": 1.1082, "touches": 75.9524, "possession_lost": 13.0345, "dispossessed": 1.4907, "duels_lost": 4.5997, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3156, "interceptions": 0.2321, "tackles_won": 0.2607, "tackles": 0.4198, "clearances": 0.4481, "total_contest": 3.1114, "won_contest": 1.5713, "challenges_lost": 0.404, "fouls": 0.9562, "fouls_drawn": 1.0412, "blocks": 0.016, "big_chances_created": 0.4905, "big_chances_missed": 0.0606, "xgot": 0.4809, "ball_carries": 27.1212, "total_progression": 92.762, "progressive_carries": 3.4612, "shots_off_target": 1.913, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0186, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.493, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Miloš Kerkez", "opponent_faced": "Miloš Kerkez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2426, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1698, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2426, "scorer_weight": 0.3473, "squad_weight_total": 2.4515, "weight_share": 0.1417, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 0.8954, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8954, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3473 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 0.8954, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.381, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3473 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.5751, "expected_assists": 0.275, "assist_rate": 0.2669, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2778, "goal_rate": 0.2929, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8454, "total_shots": 2.7585, "rating": 7.2351, "minutes": 75.46, "total_pass": 58.8302, "accurate_pass": 52.4391, "duels_won": 3.0386, "total_long_balls": 3.5082, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1905, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7459, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0421, "total_opp_half_passes": 42.0844, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.397, "crosses_total": 2.9735, "crosses_accurate": 1.1082, "touches": 75.9524, "possession_lost": 13.0345, "dispossessed": 1.4907, "duels_lost": 4.5997, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3156, "interceptions": 0.2321, "tackles_won": 0.2607, "tackles": 0.4198, "clearances": 0.4481, "total_contest": 3.1114, "won_contest": 1.5713, "challenges_lost": 0.404, "fouls": 0.9562, "fouls_drawn": 1.0412, "blocks": 0.016, "big_chances_created": 0.4905, "big_chances_missed": 0.0606, "xgot": 0.4809, "ball_carries": 27.1212, "total_progression": 92.762, "progressive_carries": 3.4612, "shots_off_target": 1.913, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0186, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.493, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Miloš Kerkez", "opponent_faced": "Miloš Kerkez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2426, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.2404, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1698, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.2404, "provider_weight": 0.3217, "squad_weight_total": 1.7761, "weight_share": 0.1811, "creation_factor": 1.1698, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rayan Cherki", "weight": 0.3217, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3217, "runner_up": "Antoine Semenyo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2784, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] }, { "n": 2, "player": "Antoine Semenyo", "weight": 0.2784, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2784, "runner_up": "Joško Gvardiol", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1992, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] }, "Antoine Semenyo": { "player_id": 934354, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 42, 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0.0709 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0578 } ], "others": 0.4485, "total": 1.7494, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.236925 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.188595 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.129592 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.058759 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.045474 } ], "others_margin": 0.296321 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.248175621032715, "model_output": 7.2482, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0683 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0659 }, { "name": 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"Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.13 (squad xG sum 1.6547, xG scale 1.2873, xA scale 1.2450, team xA 1.70 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1645, "goal_rate": 0.2752, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6764, "total_shots": 1.8536, "expected_assists": 0.2227, "key_pass": 1.7708, "rating": 7.2482, "minutes": 84.09, "total_pass": 29.5735, "accurate_pass": 26.0863, "duels_won": 3.42, "total_long_balls": 0.3418, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1116, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.8592, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1642, "crosses_total": 2.215, "crosses_accurate": 0.448, "touches": 48.3152, "possession_lost": 12.7136, "dispossessed": 1.7255, "duels_lost": 6.8366, "aerial_lost": 0.7589, "total_contest": 3.8448, "won_contest": 1.2148, "ball_recovery": 2.566, "challenges_lost": 0.5886, "fouls": 1.1382, "fouls_drawn": 0.7526, "assist_rate": 0.3667, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3424, "tackles_won": 0.6744, "tackles": 1.0426, "clearances": 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true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 793, "combined_rank_score": 381.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 483.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8706, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 279.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7501, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nico O'Reilly", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mukhammadali Usmonov", "ranking": 788 }, { "player_name": "Hyeon-uh Jeong", "ranking": 789 }, { "player_name": "Julian Andres Bonilla Tovar", "ranking": 790 }, { "player_name": "Murillo", "ranking": 791 }, { "player_name": 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"name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3074 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2401 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.033 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0174 } ], "others": -0.0129, "total": 0.5947, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.307366 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.240064 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.033019 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.017567 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017352 } ], "others_margin": -0.012871 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.750097274780273, "model_output": 6.7501, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0252 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0092 } ], "others": -0.0149, "total": 6.7501, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.02524 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015273 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.010954 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.010698 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.009186 } ], "others_margin": -0.014999 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"total_progression": 37.908, "progressive_carries": 0.8859, "key_pass": 0.195, "shots_off_target": 0.2907, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.253, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.32 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.32, "projection_minutes": 19.96, "minutes_scale": 0.7674, "appearance_probability": 0.253 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2484, "tackles": 0.6142, "tackles_won": 0.4524, "clearances": 0.576, "aerial_won": 0.3555, "total_shots": 0.4609, "rating": 6.7501, "minutes": 15.32, "total_pass": 9.6856, "accurate_pass": 8.4479, "duels_won": 1.1117, "total_long_balls": 0.124, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.658, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7899, "crosses_total": 0.0035, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.7073, "possession_lost": 2.491, "dispossessed": 0.6992, "duels_lost": 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3784, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6635 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0884 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0652 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0557 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0307 } ], "others": -0.0299, "total": 0.7522, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320928, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.656524 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.116609 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.07809 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.066224 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.038497 } ], "others_margin": -0.039071 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.20631852746009827, "model_output": 0.2063, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2193 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0316 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0156 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0152 } ], "others": -0.0351, "total": 0.2063, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.219326 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.031559 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.01956 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.015576 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.015227 } ], "others_margin": -0.035026 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.994202613830566, "model_output": 6.9942, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0844 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0523 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.049 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0455 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0193 } ], "others": 0.0557, "total": 6.9942, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.084357 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.052281 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.048969 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.045523 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.019286 } ], "others_margin": 0.055756 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0159, quality 0.813)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5603, "tackles": 0.6982, "tackles_won": 0.4759, "clearances": 1.3494, "aerial_won": 0.7642, "total_shots": 0.2096, "rating": 6.9942, "minutes": 24.81, "total_pass": 18.7665, "accurate_pass": 17.0197, "duels_won": 1.3731, "total_long_balls": 1.4756, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9671, "total_own_half_passes": 9.9197, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.257, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7628, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.5866, "possession_lost": 2.5896, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6605, "aerial_lost": 0.208, "total_contest": 0.3532, "won_contest": 0.1086, "ball_recovery": 1.7392, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.208, "fouls_drawn": 0.1086, "blocks": 0.208, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7628, "crosses_total": 0.0041, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.5866, "possession_lost": 2.5896, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6605, "aerial_lost": 0.208, "total_contest": 0.3532, "won_contest": 0.1086, "ball_recovery": 1.7392, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2049, "fouls_drawn": 0.107, "blocks": 0.208, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8642, "total_progression": 17.8257, "progressive_carries": 0.3758, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2096 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0149, "history_matches": 24, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2757, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.8 to 15.1 expected minutes (appearance 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"others_margin": -0.434194 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3724837601184845, "model_output": 0.3725, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3002 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2386 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0818 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0324 } ], "others": -0.0918, "total": 0.3725, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.300219 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.238638 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.081832 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.036321 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.032441 } ], "others_margin": -0.091711 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.71666145324707, "model_output": 6.7167, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0866 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0449 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0343 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0159 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0379, "total": 6.7167, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.086612 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.044923 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.034306 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.015927 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.014543 } ], "others_margin": -0.037847 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0819, quality 0.887)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3622, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "assists": 0.0256, "assist_rate": 0.0256, "expected_goals": 0.0202, "goals": 0.0394, "goal_rate": 0.0394, "shots_on_target": 0.0638, "total_shots": 0.403, "rating": 6.7167, "minutes": 15.12, "total_pass": 20.9655, "accurate_pass": 18.6262, "duels_won": 0.5848, "total_long_balls": 1.6667, "accurate_long_balls": 0.497, "total_own_half_passes": 9.9126, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.3278, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2985, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.2989, "possession_lost": 2.3393, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4971, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.5848, "won_contest": 0.5848, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.1696, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1523, "total_progression": 55.5346, "progressive_carries": 0.9942, "shots_off_target": 0.3392 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 87000000, "quality_factor": 0.8873, "boost_factor": 1.0819, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0031)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3622, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "assists": 0.0255, "assist_rate": 0.0255, "expected_goals": 0.0202, "goals": 0.0393, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "shots_on_target": 0.0636, "total_shots": 0.4017, "rating": 6.7167, "minutes": 15.12, "total_pass": 20.9655, "accurate_pass": 18.6262, "duels_won": 0.5848, "total_long_balls": 1.6667, "accurate_long_balls": 0.497, "total_own_half_passes": 9.9126, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.3278, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2985, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.2989, "possession_lost": 2.3393, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5008, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.5848, "won_contest": 0.5848, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.1696, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1523, "total_progression": 55.5346, "progressive_carries": 0.9942, "shots_off_target": 0.3392 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0031, "history_matches": 2, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.168, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.1 to 15.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 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"total_progression": 57.4445, "progressive_carries": 1.0284, "shots_off_target": 0.3509, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.64 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.64, "projection_minutes": 15.12, "minutes_scale": 1.0344, "appearance_probability": 0.728 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3747, "expected_assists": 0.0251, "assists": 0.0264, "assist_rate": 0.0264, "expected_goals": 0.0209, "goals": 0.0407, "goal_rate": 0.0407, "shots_on_target": 0.0658, "total_shots": 0.4167, "rating": 6.7167, "minutes": 15.64, "total_pass": 21.6865, "accurate_pass": 19.2668, "duels_won": 0.6049, "total_long_balls": 1.724, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5141, "total_own_half_passes": 10.2535, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6486, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.433, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6183, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.1346, "possession_lost": 2.4198, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.518, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6049, "won_contest": 0.6049, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.2098, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.4671, "total_progression": 57.4445, "progressive_carries": 1.0284, "shots_off_target": 0.3509, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.64 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.13 (squad xG sum 1.6547, xG scale 1.2873, xA scale 1.2450, team xA 1.70 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3747, "expected_assists": 0.0312, "assist_rate": 0.0264, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0269, "goal_rate": 0.0407, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0658, "total_shots": 0.4167, "rating": 6.7167, "minutes": 15.64, "total_pass": 21.6865, "accurate_pass": 19.2668, "duels_won": 0.6049, "total_long_balls": 1.724, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5141, "total_own_half_passes": 10.2535, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6486, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.433, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6183, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.1346, "possession_lost": 2.4198, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.518, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6049, "won_contest": 0.6049, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.2098, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.4671, "total_progression": 57.4445, "progressive_carries": 1.0284, "shots_off_target": 0.3509, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.64, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0173 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.13, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6547, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3687, "team_expected_assists": 1.704, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2873, "xa_scale": 1.245, "opponent_lambda": 1.594, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.728 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0209, "after": 0.0269 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0251, "after": 0.0312 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3747, "expected_assists": 0.0312, "assist_rate": 0.0264, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0269, "goal_rate": 0.0407, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0658, "total_shots": 0.4167, "rating": 6.7167, "minutes": 15.64, "total_pass": 21.6865, "accurate_pass": 19.2668, "duels_won": 0.6049, "total_long_balls": 1.724, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5141, "total_own_half_passes": 10.2535, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6486, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.433, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6183, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.1346, "possession_lost": 2.4198, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.518, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6049, "won_contest": 0.6049, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.2098, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.4671, "total_progression": 57.4445, "progressive_carries": 1.0284, "shots_off_target": 0.3509, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.64, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0173, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1194, "fifa_rank": 715.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3747, "expected_assists": 0.0312, "assist_rate": 0.0264, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0269, "goal_rate": 0.0407, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0658, "total_shots": 0.4167, "rating": 6.7167, "minutes": 15.64, "total_pass": 21.6865, "accurate_pass": 19.2668, "duels_won": 0.6049, "total_long_balls": 1.724, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5141, "total_own_half_passes": 10.2535, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6486, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.433, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6183, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.1346, "possession_lost": 2.4198, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.518, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6049, "won_contest": 0.6049, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.2098, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.4671, "total_progression": 57.4445, "progressive_carries": 1.0284, "shots_off_target": 0.3509, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.728, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.64, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0193, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0173, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0193, "scorer_weight": 0.0245, "squad_weight_total": 2.4515, "weight_share": 0.01, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.728, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 0.8954, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8954, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3473 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 0.8954, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.381, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3473 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3747, "expected_assists": 0.0312, "assist_rate": 0.0264, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0269, "goal_rate": 0.0407, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0658, "total_shots": 0.4167, "rating": 6.7167, "minutes": 15.64, "total_pass": 21.6865, "accurate_pass": 19.2668, "duels_won": 0.6049, "total_long_balls": 1.724, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5141, "total_own_half_passes": 10.2535, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6486, "total_opp_half_passes": 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"role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0152, quality 0.871)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.071, "goals": 0.0746, "goal_rate": 0.0746, "shots_on_target": 0.2973, "total_shots": 0.9116, "expected_assists": 0.0907, "key_pass": 0.9798, "rating": 6.8921, "minutes": 21.18, "total_pass": 10.0773, "accurate_pass": 8.3845, "duels_won": 1.8464, "total_long_balls": 0.4542, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2436, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2435, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6077, "crosses_total": 0.9356, "crosses_accurate": 0.2664, "touches": 17.8864, "possession_lost": 5.3671, "dispossessed": 0.9107, "duels_lost": 2.0411, "aerial_lost": 0.0866, "total_contest": 1.9163, "won_contest": 0.9941, "ball_recovery": 0.9496, "challenges_lost": 0.057, "fouls": 0.1058, "fouls_drawn": 0.7028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1053, "tackles_won": 0.1495, "tackles": 0.1495, "clearances": 0.1776, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1776, "big_chances_missed": 0.0652, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.1471, "total_progression": 54.6606, "progressive_carries": 3.5389, "shots_off_target": 0.6143 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 70000000, "quality_factor": 0.8707, "boost_factor": 1.0152, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.2 to 27.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0905, "goals": 0.0951, "goal_rate": 0.0951, "shots_on_target": 0.3791, "total_shots": 1.1624, "expected_assists": 0.1157, "key_pass": 1.2494, "rating": 6.8921, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 12.8502, "accurate_pass": 10.6916, "duels_won": 2.3545, "total_long_balls": 0.5792, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3106, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5118, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4259, "crosses_total": 1.193, "crosses_accurate": 0.3397, "touches": 22.8081, "possession_lost": 6.8439, "dispossessed": 0.9107, "duels_lost": 2.6027, "aerial_lost": 0.0866, "total_contest": 2.4436, "won_contest": 1.2676, "ball_recovery": 1.2109, "challenges_lost": 0.057, "fouls": 0.1349, "fouls_drawn": 0.8962, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1343, "tackles_won": 0.1906, "tackles": 0.1906, "clearances": 0.2265, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2265, "big_chances_missed": 0.0831, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1137, "total_progression": 69.7011, "progressive_carries": 4.5127, "shots_off_target": 0.7833, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.01, "projection_minutes": 21.18, "minutes_scale": 1.2752, "appearance_probability": 0.637 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0905, "goals": 0.0951, "goal_rate": 0.0951, "shots_on_target": 0.3791, "total_shots": 1.1624, "expected_assists": 0.1157, "key_pass": 1.2494, "rating": 6.8921, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 12.8502, "accurate_pass": 10.6916, "duels_won": 2.3545, "total_long_balls": 0.5792, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3106, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5118, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4259, "crosses_total": 1.193, "crosses_accurate": 0.3397, "touches": 22.8081, "possession_lost": 6.8439, "dispossessed": 0.9107, "duels_lost": 2.6027, "aerial_lost": 0.0866, "total_contest": 2.4436, "won_contest": 1.2676, "ball_recovery": 1.2109, "challenges_lost": 0.057, "fouls": 0.1349, "fouls_drawn": 0.8962, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1343, "tackles_won": 0.1906, "tackles": 0.1906, "clearances": 0.2265, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2265, "big_chances_missed": 0.0831, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1137, "total_progression": 69.7011, "progressive_carries": 4.5127, "shots_off_target": 0.7833, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.13 (squad xG sum 1.6547, xG scale 1.2873, xA scale 1.2450, team xA 1.70 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1165, "goal_rate": 0.0951, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3791, "total_shots": 1.1624, "expected_assists": 0.144, "key_pass": 1.2494, "rating": 6.8921, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 12.8502, "accurate_pass": 10.6916, "duels_won": 2.3545, "total_long_balls": 0.5792, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3106, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5118, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4259, "crosses_total": 1.193, "crosses_accurate": 0.3397, "touches": 22.8081, "possession_lost": 6.8439, "dispossessed": 0.9107, "duels_lost": 2.6027, "aerial_lost": 0.0866, "total_contest": 2.4436, "won_contest": 1.2676, "ball_recovery": 1.2109, "challenges_lost": 0.057, "fouls": 0.1349, "fouls_drawn": 0.8962, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1343, "tackles_won": 0.1906, "tackles": 0.1906, "clearances": 0.2265, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2265, "big_chances_missed": 0.0831, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1137, "total_progression": 69.7011, "progressive_carries": 4.5127, "shots_off_target": 0.7833, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0327, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.13, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6547, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3687, "team_expected_assists": 1.704, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2873, "xa_scale": 1.245, "opponent_lambda": 1.594, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.637 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0905, "after": 0.1165 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1157, "after": 0.144 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1165, "goal_rate": 0.0951, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3791, "total_shots": 1.1624, "expected_assists": 0.144, "key_pass": 1.2494, "rating": 6.8921, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 12.8502, "accurate_pass": 10.6916, "duels_won": 2.3545, "total_long_balls": 0.5792, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3106, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5118, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4259, "crosses_total": 1.193, "crosses_accurate": 0.3397, "touches": 22.8081, "possession_lost": 6.8439, "dispossessed": 0.9107, "duels_lost": 2.6027, "aerial_lost": 0.0866, "total_contest": 2.4436, "won_contest": 1.2676, "ball_recovery": 1.2109, "challenges_lost": 0.057, "fouls": 0.1349, "fouls_drawn": 0.8962, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1343, "tackles_won": 0.1906, "tackles": 0.1906, "clearances": 0.2265, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2265, "big_chances_missed": 0.0831, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1137, "total_progression": 69.7011, "progressive_carries": 4.5127, "shots_off_target": 0.7833, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0327, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 111, "fifa_rank": 204.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1165, "goal_rate": 0.0951, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3791, "total_shots": 1.1624, "expected_assists": 0.144, "key_pass": 1.2494, "rating": 6.8921, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 12.8502, "accurate_pass": 10.6916, "duels_won": 2.3545, "total_long_balls": 0.5792, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3106, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5118, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4259, "crosses_total": 1.193, "crosses_accurate": 0.3397, "touches": 22.8081, "possession_lost": 6.8439, "dispossessed": 0.9107, "duels_lost": 2.6027, "aerial_lost": 0.0866, "total_contest": 2.4436, "won_contest": 1.2676, "ball_recovery": 1.2109, "challenges_lost": 0.057, "fouls": 0.1349, "fouls_drawn": 0.8962, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1343, "tackles_won": 0.1906, "tackles": 0.1906, "clearances": 0.2265, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2265, "big_chances_missed": 0.0831, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1137, "total_progression": 69.7011, "progressive_carries": 4.5127, "shots_off_target": 0.7833, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0701, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0327, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0701, "scorer_weight": 0.0766, "squad_weight_total": 2.4515, "weight_share": 0.0313, "finishing_factor": 1.0327, "appearance_weight": 0.637, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 0.8954, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8954, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3473 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 0.8954, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.381, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3473 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1165, "goal_rate": 0.0951, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3791, "total_shots": 1.1624, "expected_assists": 0.144, "key_pass": 1.2494, "rating": 6.8921, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 12.8502, "accurate_pass": 10.6916, "duels_won": 2.3545, "total_long_balls": 0.5792, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3106, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5118, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4259, "crosses_total": 1.193, "crosses_accurate": 0.3397, "touches": 22.8081, "possession_lost": 6.8439, "dispossessed": 0.9107, "duels_lost": 2.6027, "aerial_lost": 0.0866, "total_contest": 2.4436, "won_contest": 1.2676, "ball_recovery": 1.2109, "challenges_lost": 0.057, "fouls": 0.1349, "fouls_drawn": 0.8962, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1343, "tackles_won": 0.1906, "tackles": 0.1906, "clearances": 0.2265, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2265, "big_chances_missed": 0.0831, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1137, "total_progression": 69.7011, "progressive_carries": 4.5127, "shots_off_target": 0.7833, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0701, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0854, "finishing_factor": 1.0327, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0854, "provider_weight": 0.0734, "squad_weight_total": 1.7761, "weight_share": 0.0413, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.637, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rayan Cherki", "weight": 0.3217, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3217, "runner_up": "Antoine Semenyo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2784, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] }, { "n": 2, "player": "Antoine Semenyo", "weight": 0.2784, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2784, "runner_up": "Joško Gvardiol", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1992, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] }, "Tijjani Reijnders": { "player_id": 893549, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 185, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1388, "goal_rate": 0.1297, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1123, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.719, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1184, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 55, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0813, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0666, "finishing_factor": 1.1388, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5414, "expected_assists": 0.0452, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 26, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1144, "expected_assists": 0.0312, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023993, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0358, "expected_assists": 0.1454, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023974, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1325, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025212, "match_date": "2026-02-11", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0056, 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], "others_margin": 0.063379 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7009173035621643, "model_output": 0.7009, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0328 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2188 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0593 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0659 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0597 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0397 } ], "others": 0.1417, "total": 0.7009, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.393307 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.122723 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.120727 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.108723 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.073726 } ], "others_margin": 0.225865 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.719004154205322, "model_output": 6.719, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0804 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0124 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0065 } ], "others": 0.0236, "total": 6.719, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, 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"importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0665 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0563 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0639, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0057 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0038 } ], "others": 0.0185, "total": 0.0893, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.751197, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.371819 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.19739 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.132998 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.089298 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.054626 } ], "others_margin": 0.232875 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9650921821594238, "model_output": 0.9651, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0328 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2849 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.074 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0793 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0535 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0551 } ], "others": 0.3153, "total": 0.9651, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.550634 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.17462 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.158401 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.094257 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.088575 } ], "others_margin": 0.395626 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.892115116119385, "model_output": 6.8921, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1098 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.043 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0367 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0318 } ], "others": 0.077, "total": 6.8921, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.109822 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.049803 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.042983 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.036747 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.031833 } ], "others_margin": 0.076964 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0152, quality 0.871)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.071, "goals": 0.0746, "goal_rate": 0.0746, "shots_on_target": 0.2973, "total_shots": 0.9116, "expected_assists": 0.0907, "key_pass": 0.9798, "rating": 6.8921, "minutes": 21.18, "total_pass": 10.0773, "accurate_pass": 8.3845, "duels_won": 1.8464, "total_long_balls": 0.4542, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2436, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2435, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6077, "crosses_total": 0.9356, "crosses_accurate": 0.2664, "touches": 17.8864, "possession_lost": 5.3671, "dispossessed": 0.9107, "duels_lost": 2.0411, "aerial_lost": 0.0866, "total_contest": 1.9163, "won_contest": 0.9941, "ball_recovery": 0.9496, "challenges_lost": 0.057, "fouls": 0.1058, "fouls_drawn": 0.7028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1053, "tackles_won": 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0.0905, "goals": 0.0951, "goal_rate": 0.0951, "shots_on_target": 0.3791, "total_shots": 1.1624, "expected_assists": 0.1157, "key_pass": 1.2494, "rating": 6.8921, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 12.8502, "accurate_pass": 10.6916, "duels_won": 2.3545, "total_long_balls": 0.5792, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3106, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5118, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4259, "crosses_total": 1.193, "crosses_accurate": 0.3397, "touches": 22.8081, "possession_lost": 6.8439, "dispossessed": 0.9107, "duels_lost": 2.6027, "aerial_lost": 0.0866, "total_contest": 2.4436, "won_contest": 1.2676, "ball_recovery": 1.2109, "challenges_lost": 0.057, "fouls": 0.1349, "fouls_drawn": 0.8962, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1343, "tackles_won": 0.1906, "tackles": 0.1906, "clearances": 0.2265, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2265, "big_chances_missed": 0.0831, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1137, "total_progression": 69.7011, "progressive_carries": 4.5127, "shots_off_target": 0.7833, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.13 (squad xG sum 1.6547, xG scale 1.2873, xA scale 1.2450, team xA 1.70 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1165, "goal_rate": 0.0951, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3791, "total_shots": 1.1624, "expected_assists": 0.144, "key_pass": 1.2494, "rating": 6.8921, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 12.8502, "accurate_pass": 10.6916, "duels_won": 2.3545, "total_long_balls": 0.5792, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3106, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5118, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4259, "crosses_total": 1.193, "crosses_accurate": 0.3397, "touches": 22.8081, "possession_lost": 6.8439, "dispossessed": 0.9107, "duels_lost": 2.6027, "aerial_lost": 0.0866, "total_contest": 2.4436, 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"squad_xa_sum": 1.3687, "team_expected_assists": 1.704, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2873, "xa_scale": 1.245, "opponent_lambda": 1.594, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.637 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0905, "after": 0.1165 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1157, "after": 0.144 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1165, "goal_rate": 0.0951, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3791, "total_shots": 1.1624, "expected_assists": 0.144, "key_pass": 1.2494, "rating": 6.8921, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 12.8502, "accurate_pass": 10.6916, "duels_won": 2.3545, "total_long_balls": 0.5792, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3106, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5118, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4259, "crosses_total": 1.193, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0327, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 111, "fifa_rank": 204.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1165, "goal_rate": 0.0951, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3791, "total_shots": 1.1624, "expected_assists": 0.144, "key_pass": 1.2494, "rating": 6.8921, "minutes": 27.01, "total_pass": 12.8502, "accurate_pass": 10.6916, "duels_won": 2.3545, "total_long_balls": 0.5792, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3106, 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"name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5381 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1158 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0444 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0387 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0351 } ], "others": -0.0747, "total": 0.994, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.372807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.538088 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.115844 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.044417 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.03866 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.035123 } ], "others_margin": -0.074778 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06110210716724396, "model_output": 0.0611, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1017 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0665 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0563 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0639, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0071 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.006 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0055 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0055 } ], "others": 0.0037, "total": 0.0611, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.751197, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.344727 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.14541 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.12096 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.112079 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.100808 } ], "others_margin": 0.063379 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7009173035621643, "model_output": 0.7009, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0328 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2188 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0593 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0659 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0597 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0397 } ], "others": 0.1417, "total": 0.7009, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.393307 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.122723 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.120727 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.108723 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.073726 } ], "others_margin": 0.225865 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.719004154205322, "model_output": 6.719, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0804 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0124 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0065 } ], "others": 0.0236, "total": 6.719, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.080424 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.014438 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.01244 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.00811 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.006497 } ], "others_margin": 0.02355 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0142, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0741, "goals": 0.0891, "goal_rate": 0.0891, "shots_on_target": 0.4312, "total_shots": 1.0081, "expected_assists": 0.062, "key_pass": 0.7109, "rating": 6.719, "minutes": 18.41, "total_pass": 11.5014, "accurate_pass": 10.11, "duels_won": 0.9724, "total_long_balls": 0.127, "accurate_long_balls": 0.127, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1146, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2805, "crosses_total": 1.5322, "crosses_accurate": 0.581, "touches": 17.7482, "possession_lost": 3.4593, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.2236, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 0.7825, "won_contest": 0.2717, "ball_recovery": 1.0329, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.2177, "fouls_drawn": 0.3114, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3959, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2861, "clearances": 0.4796, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1216, "xgot": 0.0632, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2434, "total_progression": 37.4692, "progressive_carries": 1.0312, "shots_off_target": 0.5769 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0142, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.4 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1078, "goals": 0.1297, "goal_rate": 0.1297, "shots_on_target": 0.6276, "total_shots": 1.4672, "expected_assists": 0.0902, "key_pass": 1.0347, "rating": 6.719, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.8396, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.79, "projection_minutes": 18.41, "minutes_scale": 1.4554, "appearance_probability": 0.627 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1078, "goals": 0.1297, "goal_rate": 0.1297, "shots_on_target": 0.6276, "total_shots": 1.4672, "expected_assists": 0.0902, "key_pass": 1.0347, "rating": 6.719, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.8396, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 2.13 (squad xG sum 1.6547, xG scale 1.2873, xA scale 1.2450, team xA 1.70 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1388, "goal_rate": 0.1297, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6276, "total_shots": 1.4672, "expected_assists": 0.1123, "key_pass": 1.0347, "rating": 6.719, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.1184, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.8396, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1388, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.13, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6547, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3687, "team_expected_assists": 1.704, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2873, "xa_scale": 1.245, "opponent_lambda": 1.594, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.627 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1078, "after": 0.1388 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0902, "after": 0.1123 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1388, "goal_rate": 0.1297, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6276, "total_shots": 1.4672, "expected_assists": 0.1123, "key_pass": 1.0347, "rating": 6.719, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.1184, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.8396, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1388, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 257, "fifa_rank": 202.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1388, "goal_rate": 0.1297, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6276, "total_shots": 1.4672, "expected_assists": 0.1123, "key_pass": 1.0347, "rating": 6.719, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.1184, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.8396, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0813, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1388, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0813, "scorer_weight": 0.0991, "squad_weight_total": 2.4515, "weight_share": 0.0404, "finishing_factor": 1.1388, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 0.8954, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.8954, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3473 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 0.8954, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.381, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3473 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1388, "goal_rate": 0.1297, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6276, "total_shots": 1.4672, "expected_assists": 0.1123, "key_pass": 1.0347, "rating": 6.719, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.1184, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.8396, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0813, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0666, "finishing_factor": 1.1388, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0666, "provider_weight": 0.0563, "squad_weight_total": 1.7761, "weight_share": 0.0317, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rayan Cherki", "weight": 0.3217, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3217, "runner_up": "Antoine Semenyo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2784, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] }, { "n": 2, "player": "Antoine Semenyo", "weight": 0.2784, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2784, "runner_up": "Joško Gvardiol", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1992, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.13, "expected_assists": 1.7, "total_shots": 20, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_passes": 616, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 12, "avg_rating": 7.09, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 91000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.89, "defenders": [ "Matheus Nunes" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.505, "xg_contribution": 0.1745, "xg_multiplier": 1.0374, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matheus Nunes", "role": "RB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.495 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dominik Szoboszlai (LW) is evenly matched against Matheus Nunes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€91M vs €48M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.174 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Bradley Barcola", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 87000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.887, "defenders": [ "Rúben Dias", "Joško Gvardiol" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.857, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.181, "xg_contribution": 0.176, "xg_multiplier": 0.9727, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.9, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rúben Dias", "role": "CB", "market_value": 60000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.819 }, { "player": "Joško Gvardiol", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.819 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bradley Barcola (ST) is evenly matched against Rúben Dias and Joško Gvardiol in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€87M vs €62M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.176 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Lewis Koumas", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3700000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.446, "defenders": [ "Rúben Dias", "Joško Gvardiol" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.857, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1196, "xg_multiplier": 0.675, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rúben Dias", "role": "CB", "market_value": 60000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Joško Gvardiol", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lewis Koumas (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Rúben Dias and Joško Gvardiol in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €62M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.68 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.120 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Víctor Muñoz", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 29000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.71, "defenders": [ "Rúben Dias", "Joško Gvardiol" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.857, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.144, "xg_multiplier": 0.8025, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rúben Dias", "role": "CB", "market_value": 60000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Joško Gvardiol", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Víctor Muñoz (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Rúben Dias and Joško Gvardiol in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€29M vs €62M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.80 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.144 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Florian Wirtz", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 95000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.891, "defenders": [ "Enzo Fernández" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.892, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.412, "xg_contribution": 0.2057, "xg_multiplier": 0.988, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Enzo Fernández", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 97000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.588 } ], "duel_analysis": "Florian Wirtz (CDM) is evenly matched against Enzo Fernández in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.206 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Alexis Mac Allister", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 77000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.879, "defenders": [ "Enzo Fernández" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.892, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.413, "xg_contribution": 0.0845, "xg_multiplier": 0.9893, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Enzo Fernández", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 97000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.587 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alexis Mac Allister (CDM) is evenly matched against Enzo Fernández in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. The quality gap is significant (€77M vs €97M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.084 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Rayan Cherki", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 98000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.893, "defenders": [ "Miloš Kerkez" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.758, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.493, "xg_contribution": 0.2158, "xg_multiplier": 1.0186, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Miloš Kerkez", "role": "RB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.507 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rayan Cherki (LW) is evenly matched against Miloš Kerkez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. The quality gap is significant (€98M vs €36M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.216 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Erling Haaland", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 240000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Ronald Araújo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.748, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.263, "xg_contribution": 0.6105, "xg_multiplier": 1.0928, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jérémy Jacquet", "role": "CB", "market_value": 57000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.737 }, { "player": "Ronald Araújo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 22000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.737 } ], "duel_analysis": "Erling Haaland (ST) is slightly favored against Jérémy Jacquet and Ronald Araújo in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€240M vs €40M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.09 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.611 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Antoine Semenyo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 85000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.886, "defenders": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Ronald Araújo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.748, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.217, "xg_contribution": 0.1278, "xg_multiplier": 1.0247, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jérémy Jacquet", "role": "CB", "market_value": 57000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.783 }, { "player": "Ronald Araújo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 22000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.783 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antoine Semenyo (ST) is evenly matched against Jérémy Jacquet and Ronald Araújo in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. The quality gap is significant (€85M vs €40M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.128 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Iliman Ndiaye", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 53000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.834, "defenders": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Ronald Araújo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.748, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1043, "xg_multiplier": 0.9609, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jérémy Jacquet", "role": "CB", "market_value": 57000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Ronald Araújo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 22000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iliman Ndiaye (ST) is evenly matched against Jérémy Jacquet and Ronald Araújo in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.104 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Enzo Fernández", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 97000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.892, "defenders": [ "Florian Wirtz" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.891, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.428, "xg_contribution": 0.1581, "xg_multiplier": 1.012, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Florian Wirtz", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 95000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.572 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enzo Fernández (CDM) is evenly matched against Florian Wirtz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.158 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Elliot Anderson", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 100000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.893, "defenders": [ "Florian Wirtz" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.891, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.436, "xg_contribution": 0.056, "xg_multiplier": 1.0241, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Florian Wirtz", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 95000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.564 } ], "duel_analysis": "Elliot Anderson (CDM) is evenly matched against Florian Wirtz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.056 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.887, "away_midfield_power": 0.893, "home_creative_power": 0.932, "away_creative_power": 1.027, "home_defensive_power": 0.747, "away_defensive_power": 0.759, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.498, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Florian Wirtz", "Alexis Mac Allister", "Dominik Szoboszlai" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Enzo Fernández", "Elliot Anderson", "Rayan Cherki" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 7.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 7.7, "home_throughball_threat": 3.4, "away_throughball_threat": 3.7, "key_personal_duel": "Florian Wirtz vs Elliot Anderson", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.007, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.011 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.594, "away_lambda": 2.13, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "CDM vs CDM", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Dominik Szoboszlai": { "opponents": [ "Matheus Nunes", "Rayan Cherki" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bradley Barcola": { "opponents": [ "Rúben Dias", "Joško Gvardiol" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lewis Koumas": { "opponents": [ "Rúben Dias", "Joško Gvardiol" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Víctor Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Rúben Dias", "Joško Gvardiol" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Florian Wirtz": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Fernández", "Elliot Anderson" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alexis Mac Allister": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Fernández", "Elliot Anderson" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Miloš Kerkez": { "opponents": [ "Rayan Cherki" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jérémy Jacquet": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland", "Antoine Semenyo", "Iliman Ndiaye" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ronald Araújo": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland", "Antoine Semenyo", "Iliman Ndiaye" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alisson": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland", "Antoine Semenyo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Virgil van Dijk": { "opponents": [ "Iliman Ndiaye" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Matheus Nunes": { "opponents": [ "Dominik Szoboszlai" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Rúben Dias": { "opponents": [ "Bradley Barcola", "Lewis Koumas", "Víctor Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Joško Gvardiol": { "opponents": [ "Bradley Barcola", "Lewis Koumas", "Víctor Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Enzo Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Florian Wirtz", "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rayan Cherki": { "opponents": [ "Miloš Kerkez", "Dominik Szoboszlai" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Erling Haaland": { "opponents": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Ronald Araújo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Antoine Semenyo": { "opponents": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Ronald Araújo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iliman Ndiaye": { "opponents": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Ronald Araújo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Elliot Anderson": { "opponents": [ "Florian Wirtz", "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gianluigi Donnarumma": { "opponents": [ "Bradley Barcola", "Víctor Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Marc Guéhi": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Koumas" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Florian Wirtz vs Elliot Anderson will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.90, Away: 1.27. Home danger zone: CDM vs CDM. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8584, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9459, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8573, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9087, "home_midfield_factor": 1.007, "away_midfield_factor": 1.011, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7542, "away_avg_quality": 0.8693, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1151, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.5655, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.4126, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.5534, "elite_count_gap": -5, "combined_quality_gap": -0.24, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.132, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0768, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.9043, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0407 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.007, "result": 1.048 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.048 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.2052 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9558, "result": 1.1519 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8584, "result": 0.9888 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8573, "result": 0.8477 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.0277 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0277, "result": 1.0277, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.24, "factor": 0.9232, "pre": 1.0277, "result": 0.9487 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9487 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.169 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 3.5, "result": 1.6166 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.6166, "result": 1.617, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9857, "pre": 1.617, "result": 1.5939, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.594 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.594 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.594, "result": 1.594, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.594 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.2725, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.3169 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.011, "result": 1.3314 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.3314 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.3314 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0374, "result": 1.3812 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9459, "result": 1.3065 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9087, "result": 1.1872 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.3672 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.3672, "result": 1.3672, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.24, "factor": 1.132, "pre": 1.3672, "result": 1.5477 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.5477 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.768 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 3.5, "result": 2.1005 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 2.1005, "result": 2.1, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0143, "pre": 2.1, "result": 2.13, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 2.13 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 2.13 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 2.13, "result": 2.13, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 2.13 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Liverpool FC", "away_squad": "Manchester City", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.0, "away_goals_per90": 3.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.594, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 2.13, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.6166, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 2.1005, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.594, "final_away_lambda": 2.13 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 7, "opponent_position": 1, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9558, "attack_index": 1.054, "defense_concede_index": 0.86, "form_multiplier": 0.97, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.52, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.24, "team_ppg": 1.55, "opponent_ppg": 2.09 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 1, "opponent_position": 7, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0374, "attack_index": 1.169, "defense_concede_index": 0.924, "form_multiplier": 1.03, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.68, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.33, "team_ppg": 2.09, "opponent_ppg": 1.55 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Liverpool vs Man City. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.617, Away 2.100). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.594, Away 2.130 (most likely score 1-2).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 11, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Liverpool FC", "away_squad": "Manchester City", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.0, "away_goals_per90": 3.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.594, "away_lambda": 2.13, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.617, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 2.1 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-11T13:31:37Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }