{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Forest", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261011", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0927, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Crystal Palace", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2545, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0927 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1204 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0896 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0783 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0758 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0636, "0-1": 0.0783, "0-2": 0.0505, "0-3": 0.0214, "0-4": 0.0068, "0-5": 0.0017, "1-0": 0.0927, "1-1": 0.1204, "1-2": 0.0758, "1-3": 0.0321, "1-4": 0.0102, "1-5": 0.0026, "1-6": 0.0005, "2-0": 0.0705, "2-1": 0.0896, "2-2": 0.0569, "2-3": 0.0241, "2-4": 0.0077, "2-5": 0.0019, "3-0": 0.0353, "3-1": 0.0448, "3-2": 0.0285, "3-3": 0.0121, "3-4": 0.0038, "3-5": 0.001, "4-0": 0.0132, "4-1": 0.0168, "4-2": 0.0107, "4-3": 0.0045, "4-4": 0.0014, "5-0": 0.004, "5-1": 0.0051, "5-2": 0.0032, "5-3": 0.0014, "6-0": 0.001, "6-1": 0.0013, "6-2": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4253, "draw": 0.2545, "away_win": 0.3203 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5241, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4759, "btts_yes": 0.5603, "btts_no": 0.4397, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2806, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2227 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.71, "MCR": 6.88, "ATR": 6.71, "GK": 6.99 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.79, "MCR": 6.92, "ATR": 6.79, "GK": 6.9 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Crystal Palace vs Forest. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Ismaïla Sarr", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Adam Wharton vs Morgan Gibbs-White will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.05, Away: 0.88. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 1.502, "away_lambda": 1.271, "h2h": { "available": false, "meetings": 0, "home_wins": 0, "away_wins": 0, "draws": 0, "home_multiplier": 1.0, "away_multiplier": 1.0 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1204, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4253, "draw": 0.2545, "away_win": 0.3203 }, "favorite": "Crystal Palace", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4253, "fair_spread": 0.231, "fair_total": 2.773, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Crystal Palace", "estimate": 1.502, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Forest", "estimate": 1.271, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5241, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5603, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Crystal Palace", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2806, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Forest", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2227, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ismaïla Sarr (Crystal Palace)", "estimate": 0.4132, "probability": 0.3385, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Morgan Gibbs-White (Forest)", "estimate": 0.244, "probability": 0.2165, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Adam Wharton (Crystal Palace)", "estimate": 0.1947, "probability": 0.1769, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Morgan Gibbs-White (Forest)", "estimate": 0.2118, "probability": 0.1909, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.773, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 823, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.4, "possession_home_pct": 50.8, "possession_away_pct": 49.2, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Crystal Palace", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4253, "script": "Crystal Palace is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.23 goals and fair total 2.77.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Forest must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Crystal Palace lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Crystal Palace chance creation leans on Ismaïla Sarr against Murillo in Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Crystal Palace: starters carry the main goal usage through Ismaïla Sarr; bench watchlist: Yéremy Pino, Óscar Mingueza, Axel Disasi.", "Forest: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Callum Hudson Odoi, Omari Hutchinson, Igor Jesus.", "Assist usage should flow through Adam Wharton; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Crystal Palace tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.39 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Forest is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Crystal Palace.", "Forest wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Crystal Palace": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Tyrick Mitchell": { "player_id": 988275, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 174, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.118, "assist_rate": 0.0818, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1185, "goal_rate": 0.1122, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8329, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 54, "possession_lost": 13.7496, "dispossessed": 0.7931, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1891, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 48, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1154, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.499, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Xaver Schlager", "opponent_faced": "Xaver Schlager", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1117, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1113, "finishing_factor": 1.0849, "creation_factor": 0.9421, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 29, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0559, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 8.8, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6617, "expected_assists": 0.008, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1055, "expected_assists": 0.1591, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363635, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0141, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023963, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023953, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2608, "expected_assists": 0.1394, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0674, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 7, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023937, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1305, "expected_assists": 0.0485, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 11 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024023, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0728, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1865, "combined_rank_score": 721.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 574.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8053, "sofascore_appearances": 38.0, "fifa_rank": 868.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8329, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tyrick Mitchell", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ritsu Doan", "ranking": 1860 }, { "player_name": "Unai Elgezabal", "ranking": 1861 }, { "player_name": "Lee Jun-Gyu", "ranking": 1862 }, { "player_name": "Amar Muhsin", "ranking": 1863 }, { "player_name": "Claudio González", "ranking": 1864 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bon-cheol Ku", "ranking": 1866 }, { "player_name": "Luke Amos", "ranking": 1867 }, { "player_name": "Javokhir Sidikov", "ranking": 1868 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Vizeu", "ranking": 1869 }, { "player_name": "José Miguel Manzaneda", "ranking": 1870 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 43, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 43, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0048, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 43 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Crystal Palace, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8928, "expected_assists": 0.0895, "assists": 0.0821, 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"name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.022 } ], "others": -0.0069, "total": 1.1146, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.143879 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.047984 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.028816 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.028283 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": -0.022035 } ], "others_margin": -0.006867 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.832864284515381, "model_output": 6.8329, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0048, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8971, "expected_assists": 0.0899, "assists": 0.0825, "assist_rate": 0.0825, "expected_goals": 0.0892, "goals": 0.1015, "goal_rate": 0.1015, "shots_on_target": 0.2857, "total_shots": 1.1199, "rating": 6.8329, "minutes": 84.59, "total_pass": 30.2407, "accurate_pass": 22.4672, "duels_won": 4.1776, "total_long_balls": 3.1099, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7824, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7394, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.799, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5012, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6682, "crosses_total": 2.2367, "crosses_accurate": 0.375, "touches": 53.7295, "possession_lost": 13.7496, "dispossessed": 0.7931, "duels_lost": 3.1801, "aerial_won": 0.8185, "aerial_lost": 0.7929, "interceptions": 0.5275, "tackles_won": 1.7126, "tackles": 2.6489, "clearances": 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1413 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0427 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0352 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0214 } ], "others": -0.0629, "total": 1.1043, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.141348 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.042707 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.035199 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.021495 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.021408 } ], "others_margin": -0.062948 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9578962326049805, "model_output": 6.9579, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0757 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0341 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": 0.0112, "total": 6.9579, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.075663 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.034069 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.018512 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.016408 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.009859 } ], "others_margin": 0.011254 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 34, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0126, quality 0.876)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4131, "expected_assists": 0.1484, "assists": 0.0984, "assist_rate": 0.0984, "expected_goals": 0.074, "goals": 0.075, "goal_rate": 0.075, "shots_on_target": 0.3033, "total_shots": 1.1182, "rating": 6.9579, "minutes": 86.37, "total_pass": 43.1868, "accurate_pass": 33.4917, "duels_won": 4.5165, "total_long_balls": 4.101, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1211, "total_own_half_passes": 15.809, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8513, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.3778, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.6405, "crosses_total": 2.2631, "crosses_accurate": 0.563, "touches": 59.4332, "possession_lost": 14.3499, "dispossessed": 0.9016, "duels_lost": 4.0417, "aerial_won": 0.4828, "aerial_lost": 0.9354, "interceptions": 1.064, "tackles_won": 0.9767, "tackles": 2.2459, "clearances": 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{ "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.019984 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.019512 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.011992 } ], "others_margin": -0.042946 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0307, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7272, "expected_assists": 0.0717, "assists": 0.0773, "assist_rate": 0.0773, "expected_goals": 0.0918, "goals": 0.1646, "goal_rate": 0.1646, "shots_on_target": 0.3902, "total_shots": 1.3719, "rating": 6.8814, "minutes": 85.7, "total_pass": 33.297, "accurate_pass": 26.2113, "duels_won": 7.299, "total_long_balls": 3.032, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4313, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8239, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9044, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.4731, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.307, "crosses_total": 0.7412, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.4806, "possession_lost": 11.6022, "dispossessed": 1.0908, "duels_lost": 4.6436, "aerial_won": 0.4006, "aerial_lost": 1.4313, "interceptions": 0.6902, "tackles_won": 2.0524, "tackles": 3.8153, "clearances": 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{ "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0039 } ], "others": -0.0078, "total": 0.1013, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.150729 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.103955 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.06447 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.043969 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.035452 } ], "others_margin": -0.07342 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07497298717498779, "model_output": 0.075, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0065 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0063 }, { "name": 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"importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0852 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0619 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0596 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.058 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0275 } ], "others": -0.0594, "total": 0.3858, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.233407 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.140852 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119109 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.115704 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.059846 } ], "others_margin": -0.143297 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1430017948150635, "model_output": 1.143, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2685 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1366 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.071 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0506 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.048 } ], "others": -0.179, "total": 1.143, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.268496 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.136633 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.070998 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.050578 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.048034 } ], "others_margin": -0.17905 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8993024826049805, "model_output": 6.8993, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0668 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0109 } ], "others": -0.0529, "total": 6.8993, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.066757 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.027031 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016094 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.014727 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.010888 } ], "others_margin": -0.052877 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0245, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8831, "expected_assists": 0.1038, "assists": 0.0768, "assist_rate": 0.0768, "expected_goals": 0.1048, "goals": 0.1493, "goal_rate": 0.1493, "shots_on_target": 0.3952, "total_shots": 1.171, "rating": 6.8993, "minutes": 86.74, "total_pass": 33.112, "accurate_pass": 24.5352, "duels_won": 6.372, "total_long_balls": 4.5918, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4187, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4175, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4931, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0421, "crosses_total": 2.4018, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.0437, "possession_lost": 16.7441, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5.3888, "aerial_won": 1.1675, "aerial_lost": 0.7164, "interceptions": 1.1809, "tackles_won": 2.1681, "tackles": 3.8608, "clearances": 3.1083, 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[ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020746 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.018357 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.013879 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013707 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009896 } ], "others_margin": 0.000195 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0229, "total": 0.5174, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.064707 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.023401 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020378 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.011607 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.010116 } ], "others_margin": -0.022973 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.775174140930176, "model_output": 6.7752, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0060, quality 0.677)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0899, "tackles": 1.382, "tackles_won": 0.7908, "clearances": 5.9544, "aerial_won": 2.3362, "total_shots": 0.5205, "rating": 6.7752, "minutes": 89.98, "total_pass": 48.0731, "accurate_pass": 41.7912, "duels_won": 4.1587, "total_long_balls": 4.9232, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6616, "total_own_half_passes": 31.0665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.5148, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0066, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2764, "crosses_total": 0.5049, "crosses_accurate": 0.1146, "touches": 67.1075, "possession_lost": 9.9239, "dispossessed": 0.3692, "duels_lost": 3.6966, "aerial_lost": 2.2042, "total_contest": 0.4889, "won_contest": 0.2024, "ball_recovery": 2.9142, "challenges_lost": 0.3482, "fouls": 0.4886, "fouls_drawn": 0.0621, "blocks": 0.7316, "goals": 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.120346 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11392 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.101604 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.067928 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.067048 } ], "others_margin": -0.199439 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.310897558927536, "model_output": 0.3109, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.052 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0383 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0077 } ], "others": -0.0244, "total": 0.3109, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.148956 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.10728 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.041897 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.026367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.022716 } ], "others_margin": -0.075742 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8802825808525085, "model_output": 0.8803, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1399 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1036 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0566 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0349 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.029 } ], "others": -0.084, "total": 0.8803, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.139902 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.103557 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.056585 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.034874 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.029028 } ], "others_margin": -0.084096 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.812966346740723, "model_output": 6.813, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0286 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.039, "total": 6.813, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028565 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.020778 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.019442 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014157 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012741 } ], "others_margin": -0.038908 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0008, quality 0.526)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9113, "expected_assists": 0.0947, "assists": 0.0928, "assist_rate": 0.0928, "expected_goals": 0.0705, "goals": 0.0822, "goal_rate": 0.0822, "shots_on_target": 0.3111, "total_shots": 0.881, "rating": 6.813, "minutes": 83.05, "total_pass": 37.0239, "accurate_pass": 31.8013, "duels_won": 4.138, "total_long_balls": 1.9898, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1207, "total_own_half_passes": 16.2753, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.183, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6183, "crosses_total": 1.1368, "crosses_accurate": 0.265, "touches": 48.8609, "possession_lost": 8.7035, "dispossessed": 0.672, "duels_lost": 3.4269, "aerial_won": 0.3158, "aerial_lost": 0.2765, "interceptions": 0.4584, "tackles_won": 1.5315, "tackles": 2.1778, "clearances": 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{ "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0675 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0486 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0325 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.027 } ], "others": -0.0085, "total": 0.5403, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.091123 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.067486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048601 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.032472 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.027026 } ], "others_margin": -0.008505 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.5885162353515625, "model_output": 6.5885, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0878 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0607 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0206 } ], "others": -0.0649, "total": 6.5885, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.087805 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.060651 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.024942 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.021116 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.020555 } ], "others_margin": -0.064889 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0550, quality 0.725)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2011, "tackles": 1.787, "tackles_won": 1.0993, "clearances": 5.5413, "aerial_won": 1.8909, "total_shots": 0.57, "rating": 6.5885, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 56.97, "accurate_pass": 49.585, "duels_won": 9.495, "total_long_balls": 5.275, "accurate_long_balls": 1.055, "total_own_half_passes": 34.815, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.65, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.155, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.935, "crosses_total": 1.055, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 81.235, "possession_lost": 10.55, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.22, "aerial_lost": 1.055, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 4.22, "challenges_lost": 1.055, "fouls": 2.11, "fouls_drawn": 5.275, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, 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"formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Liam Delap", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.2613, xG scale 1.1909, xA scale 1.3123, team xA 0.98 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2011, "tackles": 1.787, "tackles_won": 1.0993, "clearances": 5.5413, "aerial_won": 1.8909, "total_shots": 0.57, "rating": 6.5885, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 56.97, "accurate_pass": 49.585, "duels_won": 9.495, "total_long_balls": 5.275, "accurate_long_balls": 1.055, "total_own_half_passes": 34.815, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.65, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.155, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.935, "crosses_total": 1.055, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 81.235, "possession_lost": 10.55, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.22, "aerial_lost": 1.055, "total_contest": 0.0, 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"contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0153 } ], "others": 0.0309, "total": -0.0784, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022598 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": -0.019485 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.019064 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.016188 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.01526 } ], "others_margin": 0.030853 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9924540519714355, "model_output": 6.9925, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": 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}, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9890, quality 0.446)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8261, "goals_prevented": -0.0775, "rating": 6.9925, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.2609, "accurate_pass": 16.7064, "total_long_balls": 14.7686, "accurate_long_balls": 5.2141, "touches": 34.7197, "clearances": 0.989, "ball_recovery": 6.3251, "high_claims": 1.7002, "punches": 0.989, "aerial_won": 0.3268, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 1.6512, "possession_lost": 9.5545, "duels_won": 0.3268, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6032, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7699 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3700000, "quality_factor": 0.4461, "boost_factor": 0.989, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, 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"margin": 0.065099 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.047717 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.043754 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.030091 } ], "others_margin": -0.018361 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04642254114151001, "model_output": 0.0464, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0067 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0111, "total": 0.0464, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.20135 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.119409 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.1008 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.04829 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.044359 } ], "others_margin": -0.214008 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6742924451828003, "model_output": 0.6743, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.204 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0609 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0359 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0305 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0241 } ], "others": -0.0523, "total": 0.6743, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.264381 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.071901 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.044885 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.039824 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.032647 } ], "others_margin": -0.074656 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.716610908508301, "model_output": 6.7166, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0427 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0122 } ], "others": -0.0234, "total": 6.7166, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.042657 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.024739 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.014955 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.013003 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.0122 } ], "others_margin": -0.023311 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 24, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0128, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3588, "goals": 0.3237, "goal_rate": 0.3237, "shots_on_target": 0.8375, "total_shots": 2.1221, "expected_assists": 0.047, "key_pass": 0.6829, "rating": 6.7166, "minutes": 81.71, "total_pass": 18.3435, "accurate_pass": 12.6841, "duels_won": 3.8385, "total_long_balls": 1.1565, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3489, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.119, "crosses_total": 1.0703, "crosses_accurate": 0.0422, "touches": 32.7903, "possession_lost": 10.7528, "dispossessed": 1.406, "duels_lost": 5.5074, "aerial_lost": 2.5611, "total_contest": 1.2393, "won_contest": 0.4724, "ball_recovery": 2.8109, "challenges_lost": 0.5177, "fouls": 0.3498, "fouls_drawn": 1.8479, "assists": 0.0071, "assist_rate": 0.0071, "interceptions": 0.1194, "tackles_won": 0.3292, "tackles": 0.4869, "clearances": 0.8854, "blocks": 0.2627, "big_chances_created": 0.0455, "big_chances_missed": 0.6197, "xgot": 0.5496, "offsides": 0.6928, "ball_carries": 7.9302, "total_progression": 40.2086, "progressive_carries": 1.3674, "shots_off_target": 1.2846 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 43000000, "quality_factor": 0.7957, "boost_factor": 1.0128, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3588, "goals": 0.3237, "goal_rate": 0.3237, "shots_on_target": 0.8375, "total_shots": 2.1221, "expected_assists": 0.047, "key_pass": 0.6829, "rating": 6.7166, "minutes": 81.71, "total_pass": 18.3435, "accurate_pass": 12.6841, "duels_won": 3.8385, "total_long_balls": 1.1565, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3489, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.119, "crosses_total": 1.0703, "crosses_accurate": 0.0422, "touches": 32.7903, "possession_lost": 10.7528, "dispossessed": 1.406, "duels_lost": 5.5074, "aerial_lost": 2.5611, "total_contest": 1.2393, "won_contest": 0.4724, "ball_recovery": 2.8109, "challenges_lost": 0.5177, "fouls": 0.3498, "fouls_drawn": 1.8479, "assists": 0.0071, "assist_rate": 0.0071, "interceptions": 0.1194, "tackles_won": 0.3292, "tackles": 0.4869, "clearances": 0.8854, "blocks": 0.2627, "big_chances_created": 0.0455, "big_chances_missed": 0.6197, "xgot": 0.5496, "offsides": 0.6928, "ball_carries": 7.9302, "total_progression": 40.2086, "progressive_carries": 1.3674, "shots_off_target": 1.2846 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.347, "goals": 0.313, "goal_rate": 0.313, "shots_on_target": 0.8099, 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"contribution": 0.0195 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0047 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0034 } ], "others": -0.0184, "total": 0.0422, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.264517 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.104446 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.094831 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.071565 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.054539 } ], "others_margin": -0.360385 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5885348320007324, "model_output": 0.5885, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2109 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0582 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0423 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0329 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0301 } ], "others": -0.1329, "total": 0.5885, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.272255 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.068052 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.052481 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.042895 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.040821 } ], "others_margin": -0.203565 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.710559844970703, "model_output": 6.7106, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0426 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0129 } ], "others": -0.0595, "total": 6.7106, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.042568 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.019242 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015441 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012981 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.012945 } ], "others_margin": -0.059452 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 29, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0092, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2661, "goals": 0.3054, "goal_rate": 0.3054, "shots_on_target": 0.7, "total_shots": 1.8886, "expected_assists": 0.0426, "key_pass": 0.5939, "rating": 6.7106, "minutes": 73.65, "total_pass": 16.0452, "accurate_pass": 10.9327, "duels_won": 4.2123, "total_long_balls": 0.7635, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4505, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9757, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4449, "crosses_total": 0.0127, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.388, "possession_lost": 10.5878, "dispossessed": 1.4418, "duels_lost": 7.8143, "aerial_lost": 4.3115, "total_contest": 1.2448, "won_contest": 0.5322, "ball_recovery": 1.0275, "challenges_lost": 0.2703, "fouls": 1.0919, "fouls_drawn": 0.7974, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0379, "tackles_won": 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"totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 5.471593798579361, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.154, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0068, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (40 historical appearances) to 5.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.15); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.9354, "goals_prevented": -0.1006, "rating": 6.9863, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 27.9733, "accurate_pass": 16.1819, "total_long_balls": 15.7528, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0854, "touches": 38.34, "clearances": 1.7338, "ball_recovery": 8.9459, "high_claims": 0.8261, "punches": 1.3009, "aerial_won": 0.2128, "sweeper_actions": 0.7835, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7835, "saves_inside_box": 2.6185, "possession_lost": 11.8133, "duels_won": 0.2775, "duels_lost": 0.0539, "total_contest": 0.0036, "won_contest": 0.0036, "fouls": 0.0512, "fouls_drawn": 0.0237, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1192, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4026 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:04:18.353158+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 199, "rows": 6796 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-20", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.753, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8667, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.4196, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.2478, "save_contribution": 3.1114, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.7835 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.9353506565093994, "model_output": 2.9354, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0362 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9286, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1773 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0733 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.037 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0211 } ], "others": 0.0273, "total": 2.9353, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.074537, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.06245 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.026279 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.012997 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.008804 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.007281 } ], "others_margin": 0.009377 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.10064171999692917, "model_output": -0.1006, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0385 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0166, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": -0.0166 } ], "others": -0.0222, "total": -0.1006, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.024548 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.018884 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.018525 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.016686 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": -0.016566 } ], "others_margin": -0.022193 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.986282825469971, "model_output": 6.9863, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0132 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.013 } ], "others": 0.0061, "total": 6.9863, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.009122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.021359 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.018768 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.014949 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.013224 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.013049 } ], "others_margin": 0.005962 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0068, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9553, "goals_prevented": -0.1013, "rating": 6.9863, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 28.1635, "accurate_pass": 16.2919, "total_long_balls": 15.8599, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1132, "touches": 38.6007, "clearances": 1.7456, "ball_recovery": 9.0067, "high_claims": 0.8317, "punches": 1.3097, "aerial_won": 0.2142, "sweeper_actions": 0.7888, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7888, "saves_inside_box": 2.6363, "possession_lost": 11.8936, "duels_won": 0.2794, "duels_lost": 0.0543, "total_contest": 0.0036, "won_contest": 0.0036, "fouls": 0.0515, "fouls_drawn": 0.0239, "total_own_half_passes": 15.222, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4937 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0068, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0096)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9375, "goals_prevented": -0.1013, "rating": 6.9863, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 28.1635, "accurate_pass": 16.2919, "total_long_balls": 15.8599, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1132, "touches": 38.6007, "clearances": 1.7456, "ball_recovery": 9.0067, "high_claims": 0.8317, "punches": 1.3097, "aerial_won": 0.2142, "sweeper_actions": 0.7888, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7888, "saves_inside_box": 2.6363, "possession_lost": 11.8936, "duels_won": 0.2794, "duels_lost": 0.0543, "total_contest": 0.0036, "won_contest": 0.0036, "fouls": 0.051, "fouls_drawn": 0.0237, "total_own_half_passes": 15.222, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4937 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0096, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3167, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9553, "after": 2.9375 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 5.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.15)", "stats": { "saves": 0.564, "goals_prevented": -0.0194, "rating": 6.9863, "minutes": 5.47, "total_pass": 5.407, "accurate_pass": 3.1278, "total_long_balls": 3.0449, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7897, "touches": 7.4108, "clearances": 0.3351, "ball_recovery": 1.7292, "high_claims": 0.1597, "punches": 0.2514, "aerial_won": 0.0411, "sweeper_actions": 0.1514, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1514, "saves_inside_box": 0.5061, "possession_lost": 2.2834, "duels_won": 0.0536, "duels_lost": 0.0104, "total_contest": 0.0007, "won_contest": 0.0007, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0046, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.154, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.47 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 5.47, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.192, "appearance_probability": 0.154 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.564, "goals_prevented": -0.0194, "rating": 6.9863, "minutes": 5.47, "total_pass": 5.407, "accurate_pass": 3.1278, "total_long_balls": 3.0449, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7897, "touches": 7.4108, "clearances": 0.3351, "ball_recovery": 1.7292, "high_claims": 0.1597, "punches": 0.2514, "aerial_won": 0.0411, "sweeper_actions": 0.1514, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1514, "saves_inside_box": 0.5061, "possession_lost": 2.2834, "duels_won": 0.0536, "duels_lost": 0.0104, "total_contest": 0.0007, "won_contest": 0.0007, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0046, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.154, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.47 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.564, "goals_prevented": -0.0194, "rating": 6.9863, "minutes": 5.47, "total_pass": 5.407, "accurate_pass": 3.1278, "total_long_balls": 3.0449, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7897, "touches": 7.4108, "clearances": 0.3351, "ball_recovery": 1.7292, "high_claims": 0.1597, "punches": 0.2514, "aerial_won": 0.0411, "sweeper_actions": 0.1514, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1514, "saves_inside_box": 0.5061, "possession_lost": 2.2834, "duels_won": 0.0536, "duels_lost": 0.0104, "total_contest": 0.0007, "won_contest": 0.0007, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0046, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.154, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.47, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.74, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.154, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "saves": 0.564, "goals_prevented": -0.0194, "rating": 6.9863, "minutes": 5.47, "total_pass": 5.407, "accurate_pass": 3.1278, "total_long_balls": 3.0449, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7897, "touches": 7.4108, "clearances": 0.3351, "ball_recovery": 1.7292, "high_claims": 0.1597, "punches": 0.2514, "aerial_won": 0.0411, "sweeper_actions": 0.1514, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1514, "saves_inside_box": 0.5061, "possession_lost": 2.2834, "duels_won": 0.0536, "duels_lost": 0.0104, "total_contest": 0.0007, "won_contest": 0.0007, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0046, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.154, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.47, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.74, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 824, "fifa_rank": 373.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } } ] }, "Chadi Riad": { "player_id": 1064218, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 186, "market_value": 19400000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7598, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 3.6223, "dispossessed": 0.2843, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1551, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0139, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.32, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.74, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363635, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 46, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023963, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1848, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 39, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023953, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.035, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 17, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024023, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0473, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 6, 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"match_id": 14023978, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024008, "match_date": "2026-02-22", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0179, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "total_shots": 1, 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0.008 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0073 } ], "others": -0.0257, "total": 0.3863, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.822979 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.062261 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.026023 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.019192 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.017516 } ], "others_margin": -0.063993 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5510692596435547, "model_output": 0.5511, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7605 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 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"is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2362 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.032 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0069 } ], "others": -0.0269, "total": 0.1468, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.236226 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031967 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.013943 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.008368 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.006902 } ], "others_margin": -0.026884 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.759775161743164, "model_output": 6.7598, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": 0.0178, "total": 6.7598, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022177 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016654 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.015814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011553 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008405 } ], "others_margin": 0.017619 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0120, quality 0.625)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.391, "tackles": 0.5577, "tackles_won": 0.3861, "clearances": 1.8953, "aerial_won": 0.7452, "total_shots": 0.2843, "rating": 6.7598, "minutes": 25.94, "total_pass": 27.6967, "accurate_pass": 22.086, "duels_won": 2.6337, "total_long_balls": 2.977, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6776, "total_own_half_passes": 16.609, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5438, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5423, "crosses_total": 0.6687, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.2574, "possession_lost": 6.5637, "dispossessed": 0.2843, "duels_lost": 3.2543, "aerial_lost": 1.4556, "total_contest": 0.2843, "won_contest": 0.2843, "ball_recovery": 0.6186, "challenges_lost": 0.7868, "fouls": 0.7277, "fouls_drawn": 0.3344, "blocks": 0.3934, "goals": 0.0, 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}, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": 0.0128, "total": 0.399, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.731488 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.043848 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.027405 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.023759 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.022427 } ], "others_margin": 0.032621 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.5127594470977783, "model_output": 1.5128, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0895 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1256 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1141 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0841 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0553 } ], "others": -0.06, "total": 1.5128, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.929923 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.08823 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.073915 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.053956 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.035766 } ], "others_margin": -0.038879 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.4713963270187378, "model_output": 0.4714, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8351 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0701 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0301 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0124 } ], "others": -0.0323, "total": 0.4714, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.926916 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.137197 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.061307 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.031298 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.024993 } ], "others_margin": -0.066498 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.07940782606601715, "model_output": 0.0794, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0802 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0072 } ], "others": -0.071, "total": 0.0794, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.20475 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.080248 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017115 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011367 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.007242 } ], "others_margin": -0.071002 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.702565670013428, "model_output": 6.7026, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0288 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": 0.0008, "total": 6.7026, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028814 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.019719 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.013641 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011071 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.010101 } ], "others_margin": 0.00078 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 17, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0054, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.437, "tackles": 0.6026, "tackles_won": 0.4011, "clearances": 1.5209, "aerial_won": 0.4739, "total_shots": 0.0798, "rating": 6.7026, "minutes": 17.33, "total_pass": 35.5154, "accurate_pass": 30.649, "duels_won": 2.8278, "total_long_balls": 4.8786, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0897, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7839, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.6675, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7314, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9816, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.2655, "possession_lost": 5.8406, "dispossessed": 0.319, "duels_lost": 2.2374, "aerial_lost": 0.9804, "total_contest": 0.2245, "won_contest": 0.2245, "ball_recovery": 3.011, "challenges_lost": 0.3725, "fouls": 0.5655, "fouls_drawn": 0.1572, "blocks": 0.7283, "goals": 0.0, 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"total_opp_half_passes": 11.7314, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9816, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.2655, "possession_lost": 5.8406, "dispossessed": 0.319, "duels_lost": 2.2374, "aerial_lost": 0.9804, "total_contest": 0.2245, "won_contest": 0.2245, "ball_recovery": 3.011, "challenges_lost": 0.3725, "fouls": 0.5663, "fouls_drawn": 0.1569, "blocks": 0.7283, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0216, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "shots_on_target": 0.0601, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0174, "ball_carries": 12.8397, "total_progression": 43.5548, "progressive_carries": 0.4994, "key_pass": 0.1509, "shots_off_target": 0.0196 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.002, "history_matches": 17, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1926, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.3 to 15.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3817, "tackles": 0.5275, "tackles_won": 0.3504, "clearances": 1.3313, "aerial_won": 0.4148, "total_shots": 0.0698, "rating": 6.7026, "minutes": 15.17, "total_pass": 31.0888, "accurate_pass": 26.8289, "duels_won": 2.4753, "total_long_balls": 4.2705, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8292, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.8422, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2692, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9868, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.6236, "possession_lost": 5.1126, "dispossessed": 0.319, "duels_lost": 1.9585, "aerial_lost": 0.9804, "total_contest": 0.1965, "won_contest": 0.1965, "ball_recovery": 2.6357, "challenges_lost": 0.3725, "fouls": 0.4957, "fouls_drawn": 0.1373, "blocks": 0.6375, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0189, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "shots_on_target": 0.0526, 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"margin": -0.557786 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.416793 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.232479 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.133698 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.118817 } ], "others_margin": -0.272948 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.27516674995422363, "model_output": 0.2752, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3297 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2799 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0357 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0328 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.025 } ], "others": -0.0122, "total": 0.2752, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.32968 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.279872 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.035686 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.0328 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.024997 } ], "others_margin": -0.012263 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.717966079711914, "model_output": 6.718, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0893 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.025 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0076 } ], "others": -0.0009, "total": 6.718, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.089344 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.02504 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01868 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.010643 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.007612 } ], "others_margin": -0.000872 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.618)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4656, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "assists": 0.0412, "assist_rate": 0.0412, "expected_goals": 0.0192, "goals": 0.024, "goal_rate": 0.024, "shots_on_target": 0.0752, "total_shots": 0.2763, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 17.82, "total_pass": 13.6902, "accurate_pass": 11.5397, "duels_won": 1.2666, "total_long_balls": 1.0414, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3745, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7252, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8146, "crosses_total": 1.1305, "crosses_accurate": 0.1885, "touches": 20.381, "possession_lost": 4.2746, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.2533, "aerial_won": 0.1248, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.017, "tackles_won": 0.588, "tackles": 0.882, "clearances": 0.3496, "total_contest": 0.2039, "won_contest": 0.1031, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3314, "fouls_drawn": 0.1566, "blocks": 0.0885, "big_chances_created": 0.1391, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6127, "total_progression": 15.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.3613, "shots_off_target": 0.2011 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18700000, "quality_factor": 0.6181, "boost_factor": 1.0041, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0011)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4656, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "assists": 0.0412, "assist_rate": 0.0412, "expected_goals": 0.0192, "goals": 0.024, "goal_rate": 0.024, "shots_on_target": 0.0751, "total_shots": 0.276, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 17.82, "total_pass": 13.6902, "accurate_pass": 11.5397, "duels_won": 1.2666, "total_long_balls": 1.0414, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3745, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7252, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8146, "crosses_total": 1.1293, "crosses_accurate": 0.1885, "touches": 20.381, "possession_lost": 4.2746, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.2533, "aerial_won": 0.1248, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.017, "tackles_won": 0.5884, "tackles": 0.882, "clearances": 0.3496, "total_contest": 0.2039, "won_contest": 0.1031, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3311, "fouls_drawn": 0.1564, "blocks": 0.0885, "big_chances_created": 0.1391, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6127, "total_progression": 15.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.3613, "shots_off_target": 0.2011 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0011, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.198, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench 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"contribution": 0.0042 } ], "others": -0.005, "total": 0.0982, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.632102 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.395872 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.250208 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.09299 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.041529 } ], "others_margin": -0.050394 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.38287150859832764, "model_output": 0.3829, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4429 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2402 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.072 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0342 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0253 } ], "others": 0.063, "total": 0.3829, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.442888 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.240226 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.071989 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.034191 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.025311 } ], "others_margin": 0.063034 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.641592979431152, "model_output": 6.6416, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0444 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.033 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0426, "total": 6.6416, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.063871 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.044376 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.032962 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014918 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008543 } ], "others_margin": -0.042607 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / 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"league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023953, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0605, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1004, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024023, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024005, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "expected_assists": 0.2336, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1312, "combined_rank_score": 569.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 257.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 881.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7497, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yéremy Pino", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bazoumana Touré", "ranking": 1307 }, { "player_name": "Emil Audero", "ranking": 1308 }, { "player_name": "Lukáš Haraslín", "ranking": 1309 }, { "player_name": "Marko Dmitrović", "ranking": 1310 }, { "player_name": "Tino Livramento", "ranking": 1311 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Cecilio Waterman", "ranking": 1313 }, { "player_name": "Javier Guerra", "ranking": 1314 }, { "player_name": "Pedro Gonçalves", "ranking": 1315 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Cunha", "ranking": 1316 }, { "player_name": "Pacha", "ranking": 1317 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.761, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 41, "data_confidence": 0.761, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 31.64, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.547, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0062, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 36.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0733 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (41 historical appearances) to 31.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.55); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 36.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": 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"opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1025, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 13.9669, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 9.9437, "accuratePass": 18.7853, "totalShots": 1.1506 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.07735450565814972, "model_output": 0.0774, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0721 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "contribution": 0.0039 } ], "others": -0.0112, "total": 0.0993, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.43711 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.183188 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.08004 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.052359 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "margin": 0.035823 } ], "others_margin": -0.106517 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.21437978744506836, "model_output": 0.2144, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2224 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0424, "total": 0.2144, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.534647 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.061212 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.04923 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.046542 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.046046 } ], "others_margin": -0.180535 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7052676677703857, "model_output": 0.7053, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4386 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0875 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0512 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0252 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.023 } ], "others": -0.0479, "total": 0.7053, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.438624 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.087457 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.05122 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.025181 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.02303 } ], "others_margin": -0.047927 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.0737561583518982, "model_output": 0.0738, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0064 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0061 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.003 } ], "others": 0.0152, "total": 0.0738, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.322621 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.127956 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.109457 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.060868 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.051886 } ], "others_margin": 0.231653 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.698542594909668, "model_output": 0.6985, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2335 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0478 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.044 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.029 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0248 } ], "others": 0.162, "total": 0.6985, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.425296 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.103068 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.086351 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.053068 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.045238 } ], "others_margin": 0.263847 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.749662399291992, "model_output": 6.7497, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0672 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": 0.0463, "total": 6.7497, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.067224 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.023039 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.015273 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.011905 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.011209 } ], "others_margin": 0.046262 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0062, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0778, "goals": 0.0999, "goal_rate": 0.0999, "shots_on_target": 0.2157, "total_shots": 0.7097, "expected_assists": 0.0742, "key_pass": 0.7029, "rating": 6.7497, "minutes": 25.9, "total_pass": 14.1646, "accurate_pass": 10.6851, "duels_won": 1.5855, "total_long_balls": 0.7967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2411, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6211, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5386, "crosses_total": 2.0821, "crosses_accurate": 0.5412, "touches": 21.8009, "possession_lost": 6.8531, "dispossessed": 0.6173, "duels_lost": 1.8558, "aerial_lost": 0.7942, "total_contest": 0.5641, "won_contest": 0.4222, "ball_recovery": 1.7575, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4989, "fouls_drawn": 0.3875, "assists": 0.1669, "assist_rate": 0.1669, "interceptions": 0.1276, "tackles_won": 0.3384, "tackles": 0.5348, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5339, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0116, "offsides": 0.1419, "ball_carries": 7.9461, "total_progression": 31.0972, "progressive_carries": 1.0379, "shots_off_target": 0.4939 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0062, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0052)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0778, "goals": 0.0994, "goal_rate": 0.0994, "shots_on_target": 0.2146, "total_shots": 0.7099, "expected_assists": 0.0742, "key_pass": 0.7029, "rating": 6.7497, "minutes": 25.9, "total_pass": 14.1646, "accurate_pass": 10.6851, "duels_won": 1.5855, "total_long_balls": 0.7967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2411, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6211, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5386, "crosses_total": 2.0835, "crosses_accurate": 0.5412, "touches": 21.8009, "possession_lost": 6.8531, "dispossessed": 0.6173, "duels_lost": 1.8558, "aerial_lost": 0.7942, "total_contest": 0.5641, "won_contest": 0.4222, "ball_recovery": 1.7575, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5004, "fouls_drawn": 0.3896, "assists": 0.166, "assist_rate": 0.166, "interceptions": 0.1283, "tackles_won": 0.3394, "tackles": 0.5348, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5339, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0116, "offsides": 0.1439, "ball_carries": 7.9461, "total_progression": 31.0972, "progressive_carries": 1.0379, "shots_off_target": 0.4939 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0052, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2878, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.9 to 31.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.095, "goals": 0.1214, "goal_rate": 0.1214, "shots_on_target": 0.2622, "total_shots": 0.8672, "expected_assists": 0.0906, "key_pass": 0.8587, "rating": 6.7497, "minutes": 31.64, "total_pass": 17.3038, "accurate_pass": 13.0531, "duels_won": 1.9369, "total_long_balls": 0.9733, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2945, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7533, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9877, "crosses_total": 2.5452, "crosses_accurate": 0.6611, "touches": 26.6325, "possession_lost": 8.3719, "dispossessed": 0.6173, "duels_lost": 2.2671, "aerial_lost": 0.7942, "total_contest": 0.6891, "won_contest": 0.5158, "ball_recovery": 2.147, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6113, "fouls_drawn": 0.4759, "assists": 0.2028, "assist_rate": 0.2028, "interceptions": 0.1567, "tackles_won": 0.4146, "tackles": 0.6533, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6522, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0142, "offsides": 0.1439, "ball_carries": 9.7071, "total_progression": 37.989, 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31.64, "total_pass": 17.3038, "accurate_pass": 13.0531, "duels_won": 1.9369, "total_long_balls": 0.9733, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2945, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7533, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9877, "crosses_total": 2.5452, "crosses_accurate": 0.6611, "touches": 26.6325, "possession_lost": 8.3719, "dispossessed": 0.6173, "duels_lost": 2.2671, "aerial_lost": 0.7942, "total_contest": 0.6891, "won_contest": 0.5158, "ball_recovery": 2.147, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6113, "fouls_drawn": 0.4759, "assist_rate": 0.2028, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1567, "tackles_won": 0.4146, "tackles": 0.6533, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6522, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0169, "offsides": 0.1439, "ball_carries": 9.7071, "total_progression": 37.989, "progressive_carries": 1.2679, "shots_off_target": 0.6034, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 31.64, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.618)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4656, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "assists": 0.0412, "assist_rate": 0.0412, "expected_goals": 0.0192, "goals": 0.024, "goal_rate": 0.024, "shots_on_target": 0.0752, "total_shots": 0.2763, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 17.82, "total_pass": 13.6902, "accurate_pass": 11.5397, "duels_won": 1.2666, "total_long_balls": 1.0414, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3745, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7252, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8146, "crosses_total": 1.1305, "crosses_accurate": 0.1885, "touches": 20.381, "possession_lost": 4.2746, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.2533, "aerial_won": 0.1248, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.017, "tackles_won": 0.588, "tackles": 0.882, "clearances": 0.3496, 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"total_own_half_passes": 4.5076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7252, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8146, "crosses_total": 1.1293, "crosses_accurate": 0.1885, "touches": 20.381, "possession_lost": 4.2746, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.2533, "aerial_won": 0.1248, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.017, "tackles_won": 0.5884, "tackles": 0.882, "clearances": 0.3496, "total_contest": 0.2039, "won_contest": 0.1031, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3311, "fouls_drawn": 0.1564, "blocks": 0.0885, "big_chances_created": 0.1391, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6127, "total_progression": 15.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.3613, "shots_off_target": 0.2011 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0011, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.198, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench 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"big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2145, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.01, "projection_minutes": 17.82, "minutes_scale": 1.0668, "appearance_probability": 0.707 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4967, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "assists": 0.044, "assist_rate": 0.044, "expected_goals": 0.0205, "goals": 0.0256, "goal_rate": 0.0256, "shots_on_target": 0.0801, "total_shots": 0.2946, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2145, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.2613, xG scale 1.1909, xA scale 1.3123, team xA 0.98 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4967, "expected_assists": 0.0539, "assist_rate": 0.044, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0244, "goal_rate": 0.0256, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0801, "total_shots": 0.2946, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, 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"Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4967, "expected_assists": 0.0539, "assist_rate": 0.044, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0244, "goal_rate": 0.0256, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0801, "total_shots": 0.2946, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4967, "expected_assists": 0.0539, "assist_rate": 0.044, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0244, "goal_rate": 0.0256, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0801, "total_shots": 0.2946, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2145, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.74, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.017, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0723, "creation_factor": 1.0318, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.017, "scorer_weight": 0.0185, "squad_weight_total": 1.5579, "weight_share": 0.0119, "finishing_factor": 1.0723, "appearance_weight": 0.707, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ismaïla Sarr", "weight": 0.3778, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3778, "runner_up": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3576 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4967, "expected_assists": 0.0539, "assist_rate": 0.044, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0244, "goal_rate": 0.0256, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0801, "total_shots": 0.2946, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, 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"projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.017, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0371, "finishing_factor": 1.0723, "creation_factor": 1.0318, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0371, "provider_weight": 0.0393, "squad_weight_total": 0.8839, "weight_share": 0.0445, "creation_factor": 1.0318, "appearance_weight": 0.707, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adam Wharton", "weight": 0.1558, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1558, "runner_up": "Daichi Kamada", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1217, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ismaïla Sarr" ] } ] } } ] }, "Axel Disasi": { "player_id": 827243, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 190, "market_value": 15500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, 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}, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0443, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 53, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, 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0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0802 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0072 } ], "others": -0.071, "total": 0.0794, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.20475 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.080248 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017115 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011367 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.007242 } ], "others_margin": -0.071002 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.702565670013428, "model_output": 6.7026, "scale": "0-10", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0054, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.437, "tackles": 0.6026, "tackles_won": 0.4011, "clearances": 1.5209, "aerial_won": 0.4739, "total_shots": 0.0798, "rating": 6.7026, "minutes": 17.33, "total_pass": 35.5154, "accurate_pass": 30.649, "duels_won": 2.8278, "total_long_balls": 4.8786, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0897, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7839, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.6675, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7314, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9816, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.2655, "possession_lost": 5.8406, "dispossessed": 0.319, "duels_lost": 2.2374, "aerial_lost": 0.9804, "total_contest": 0.2245, "won_contest": 0.2245, "ball_recovery": 3.011, "challenges_lost": 0.3725, "fouls": 0.5655, "fouls_drawn": 0.1572, "blocks": 0.7283, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0216, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "shots_on_target": 0.0602, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0174, "ball_carries": 12.8397, "total_progression": 43.5548, "progressive_carries": 0.4994, "key_pass": 0.1509, "shots_off_target": 0.0196 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15500000, "quality_factor": 0.5846, "boost_factor": 1.0054, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 17, "history_shrink": 0.2273, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0020)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4361, "tackles": 0.6026, "tackles_won": 0.4003, "clearances": 1.5209, "aerial_won": 0.4739, "total_shots": 0.0796, "rating": 6.7026, "minutes": 17.33, "total_pass": 35.5154, "accurate_pass": 30.649, "duels_won": 2.8278, "total_long_balls": 4.8786, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0897, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7839, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.6675, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7314, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9816, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.2655, "possession_lost": 5.8406, "dispossessed": 0.319, "duels_lost": 2.2374, "aerial_lost": 0.9804, "total_contest": 0.2245, "won_contest": 0.2245, "ball_recovery": 3.011, "challenges_lost": 0.3725, "fouls": 0.5663, "fouls_drawn": 0.1569, "blocks": 0.7283, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0216, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "shots_on_target": 0.0601, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0174, "ball_carries": 12.8397, "total_progression": 43.5548, "progressive_carries": 0.4994, "key_pass": 0.1509, "shots_off_target": 0.0196 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.002, "history_matches": 17, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1926, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.3 to 15.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3817, "tackles": 0.5275, "tackles_won": 0.3504, "clearances": 1.3313, "aerial_won": 0.4148, "total_shots": 0.0698, "rating": 6.7026, "minutes": 15.17, "total_pass": 31.0888, "accurate_pass": 26.8289, "duels_won": 2.4753, "total_long_balls": 4.2705, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8292, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.8422, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2692, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9868, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.6236, "possession_lost": 5.1126, "dispossessed": 0.319, "duels_lost": 1.9585, "aerial_lost": 0.9804, "total_contest": 0.1965, "won_contest": 0.1965, "ball_recovery": 2.6357, "challenges_lost": 0.3725, "fouls": 0.4957, "fouls_drawn": 0.1373, "blocks": 0.6375, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0189, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "shots_on_target": 0.0526, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0152, "ball_carries": 11.2394, "total_progression": 38.1262, "progressive_carries": 0.4372, "key_pass": 0.1321, "shots_off_target": 0.0172, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.614, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.17 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.17, "projection_minutes": 17.33, "minutes_scale": 0.8754, "appearance_probability": 0.614 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3817, "tackles": 0.5275, "tackles_won": 0.3504, "clearances": 1.3313, "aerial_won": 0.4148, "total_shots": 0.0698, "rating": 6.7026, "minutes": 15.17, "total_pass": 31.0888, "accurate_pass": 26.8289, "duels_won": 2.4753, "total_long_balls": 4.2705, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8292, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.8422, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2692, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9868, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.6236, "possession_lost": 5.1126, "dispossessed": 0.319, "duels_lost": 1.9585, "aerial_lost": 0.9804, "total_contest": 0.1965, "won_contest": 0.1965, "ball_recovery": 2.6357, "challenges_lost": 0.3725, "fouls": 0.4957, "fouls_drawn": 0.1373, "blocks": 0.6375, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0189, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "shots_on_target": 0.0526, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0152, "ball_carries": 11.2394, "total_progression": 38.1262, "progressive_carries": 0.4372, "key_pass": 0.1321, "shots_off_target": 0.0172, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.614, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.17 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.50 (squad xG sum 1.2613, xG scale 1.1909, xA scale 1.3123, team xA 0.98 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3817, "tackles": 0.5275, "tackles_won": 0.3504, "clearances": 1.3313, "aerial_won": 0.4148, "total_shots": 0.0698, "rating": 6.7026, "minutes": 15.17, "total_pass": 31.0888, "accurate_pass": 26.8289, "duels_won": 2.4753, "total_long_balls": 4.2705, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8292, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.8422, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2692, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9868, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.6236, "possession_lost": 5.1126, "dispossessed": 0.319, "duels_lost": 1.9585, "aerial_lost": 0.9804, "total_contest": 0.1965, "won_contest": 0.1965, "ball_recovery": 2.6357, "challenges_lost": 0.3725, "fouls": 0.4957, "fouls_drawn": 0.1373, "blocks": 0.6375, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "shots_on_target": 0.0526, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0181, "ball_carries": 11.2394, "total_progression": 38.1262, "progressive_carries": 0.4372, 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"stats": { "interceptions": 0.3817, "tackles": 0.5275, "tackles_won": 0.3504, "clearances": 1.3313, "aerial_won": 0.4148, "total_shots": 0.0698, "rating": 6.7026, "minutes": 15.17, "total_pass": 31.0888, "accurate_pass": 26.8289, "duels_won": 2.4753, "total_long_balls": 4.2705, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8292, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.8422, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2692, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9868, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.6236, "possession_lost": 5.1126, "dispossessed": 0.319, "duels_lost": 1.9585, "aerial_lost": 0.9804, "total_contest": 0.1965, "won_contest": 0.1965, "ball_recovery": 2.6357, "challenges_lost": 0.3725, "fouls": 0.4957, "fouls_drawn": 0.1373, "blocks": 0.6375, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "shots_on_target": 0.0526, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0181, "ball_carries": 11.2394, 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3817, "tackles": 0.5275, "tackles_won": 0.3504, "clearances": 1.3313, "aerial_won": 0.4148, "total_shots": 0.0698, "rating": 6.7026, "minutes": 15.17, "total_pass": 31.0888, "accurate_pass": 26.8289, "duels_won": 2.4753, "total_long_balls": 4.2705, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8292, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8195, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.8422, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2692, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9868, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.6236, "possession_lost": 5.1126, "dispossessed": 0.319, "duels_lost": 1.9585, "aerial_lost": 0.9804, "total_contest": 0.1965, "won_contest": 0.1965, "ball_recovery": 2.6357, "challenges_lost": 0.3725, "fouls": 0.4957, "fouls_drawn": 0.1373, "blocks": 0.6375, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0062, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0778, "goals": 0.0999, "goal_rate": 0.0999, "shots_on_target": 0.2157, "total_shots": 0.7097, "expected_assists": 0.0742, "key_pass": 0.7029, "rating": 6.7497, "minutes": 25.9, "total_pass": 14.1646, "accurate_pass": 10.6851, "duels_won": 1.5855, "total_long_balls": 0.7967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2411, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6211, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5386, "crosses_total": 2.0821, "crosses_accurate": 0.5412, "touches": 21.8009, "possession_lost": 6.8531, "dispossessed": 0.6173, "duels_lost": 1.8558, "aerial_lost": 0.7942, "total_contest": 0.5641, "won_contest": 0.4222, "ball_recovery": 1.7575, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4989, "fouls_drawn": 0.3875, "assists": 0.1669, "assist_rate": 0.1669, "interceptions": 0.1276, "tackles_won": 0.3384, "tackles": 0.5348, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5339, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0116, "offsides": 0.1419, "ball_carries": 7.9461, "total_progression": 31.0972, "progressive_carries": 1.0379, "shots_off_target": 0.4939 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0062, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0052)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0778, "goals": 0.0994, "goal_rate": 0.0994, "shots_on_target": 0.2146, "total_shots": 0.7099, "expected_assists": 0.0742, "key_pass": 0.7029, "rating": 6.7497, "minutes": 25.9, "total_pass": 14.1646, "accurate_pass": 10.6851, "duels_won": 1.5855, "total_long_balls": 0.7967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2411, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6211, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5386, "crosses_total": 2.0835, "crosses_accurate": 0.5412, "touches": 21.8009, "possession_lost": 6.8531, "dispossessed": 0.6173, "duels_lost": 1.8558, "aerial_lost": 0.7942, "total_contest": 0.5641, "won_contest": 0.4222, "ball_recovery": 1.7575, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5004, "fouls_drawn": 0.3896, "assists": 0.166, "assist_rate": 0.166, "interceptions": 0.1283, "tackles_won": 0.3394, "tackles": 0.5348, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5339, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0116, "offsides": 0.1439, "ball_carries": 7.9461, "total_progression": 31.0972, "progressive_carries": 1.0379, "shots_off_target": 0.4939 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0052, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2878, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.9 to 31.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.095, "goals": 0.1214, "goal_rate": 0.1214, "shots_on_target": 0.2622, "total_shots": 0.8672, "expected_assists": 0.0906, "key_pass": 0.8587, "rating": 6.7497, "minutes": 31.64, "total_pass": 17.3038, "accurate_pass": 13.0531, "duels_won": 1.9369, "total_long_balls": 0.9733, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2945, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7533, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9877, "crosses_total": 2.5452, "crosses_accurate": 0.6611, "touches": 26.6325, "possession_lost": 8.3719, "dispossessed": 0.6173, "duels_lost": 2.2671, "aerial_lost": 0.7942, "total_contest": 0.6891, "won_contest": 0.5158, "ball_recovery": 2.147, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6113, "fouls_drawn": 0.4759, "assists": 0.2028, "assist_rate": 0.2028, "interceptions": 0.1567, "tackles_won": 0.4146, "tackles": 0.6533, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6522, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0142, "offsides": 0.1439, "ball_carries": 9.7071, "total_progression": 37.989, "progressive_carries": 1.2679, "shots_off_target": 0.6034, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 31.64 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 31.64, "projection_minutes": 25.9, "minutes_scale": 1.2216, "appearance_probability": 0.547 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.095, "goals": 0.1214, "goal_rate": 0.1214, "shots_on_target": 0.2622, "total_shots": 0.8672, "expected_assists": 0.0906, "key_pass": 0.8587, "rating": 6.7497, "minutes": 31.64, "total_pass": 17.3038, "accurate_pass": 13.0531, "duels_won": 1.9369, "total_long_balls": 0.9733, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2945, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7533, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9877, "crosses_total": 2.5452, "crosses_accurate": 0.6611, "touches": 26.6325, "possession_lost": 8.3719, "dispossessed": 0.6173, "duels_lost": 2.2671, "aerial_lost": 0.7942, "total_contest": 0.6891, "won_contest": 0.5158, 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31.64, "total_pass": 17.3038, "accurate_pass": 13.0531, "duels_won": 1.9369, "total_long_balls": 0.9733, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2945, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7533, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9877, "crosses_total": 2.5452, "crosses_accurate": 0.6611, "touches": 26.6325, "possession_lost": 8.3719, "dispossessed": 0.6173, "duels_lost": 2.2671, "aerial_lost": 0.7942, "total_contest": 0.6891, "won_contest": 0.5158, "ball_recovery": 2.147, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6113, "fouls_drawn": 0.4759, "assist_rate": 0.2028, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1567, "tackles_won": 0.4146, "tackles": 0.6533, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6522, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0169, "offsides": 0.1439, "ball_carries": 9.7071, "total_progression": 37.989, "progressive_carries": 1.2679, "shots_off_target": 0.6034, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 31.64, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.74, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1821, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.502, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2613, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7439, "team_expected_assists": 0.9763, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1909, "xa_scale": 1.3123, "opponent_lambda": 1.271, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.547 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.095, "after": 0.1131 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0906, "after": 0.1189 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1131, "goal_rate": 0.1214, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2622, "total_shots": 0.8672, "expected_assists": 0.1189, "key_pass": 0.8587, "rating": 6.7497, "minutes": 31.64, "total_pass": 17.3038, "accurate_pass": 13.0531, "duels_won": 1.9369, "total_long_balls": 0.9733, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2945, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7533, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9877, "crosses_total": 2.5452, "crosses_accurate": 0.6611, "touches": 26.6325, "possession_lost": 8.3719, "dispossessed": 0.6173, "duels_lost": 2.2671, "aerial_lost": 0.7942, "total_contest": 0.6891, "won_contest": 0.5158, "ball_recovery": 2.147, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6113, "fouls_drawn": 0.4759, "assist_rate": 0.2028, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1567, "tackles_won": 0.4146, "tackles": 0.6533, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6522, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0169, "offsides": 0.1439, "ball_carries": 9.7071, "total_progression": 37.989, "progressive_carries": 1.2679, 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scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1131, "goal_rate": 0.1214, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2622, "total_shots": 0.8672, "expected_assists": 0.1189, "key_pass": 0.8587, "rating": 6.7497, "minutes": 31.64, "total_pass": 17.3038, "accurate_pass": 13.0531, "duels_won": 1.9369, "total_long_balls": 0.9733, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2945, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7533, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9877, "crosses_total": 2.5452, "crosses_accurate": 0.6611, "touches": 26.6325, "possession_lost": 8.3719, "dispossessed": 0.6173, "duels_lost": 2.2671, "aerial_lost": 0.7942, "total_contest": 0.6891, "won_contest": 0.5158, "ball_recovery": 2.147, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6113, "fouls_drawn": 0.4759, "assist_rate": 0.2028, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1567, "tackles_won": 0.4146, "tackles": 0.6533, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6522, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0169, "offsides": 0.1439, 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"effective_weight": 0.3778, "runner_up": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3576 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1131, "goal_rate": 0.1214, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2622, "total_shots": 0.8672, "expected_assists": 0.1189, "key_pass": 0.8587, "rating": 6.7497, "minutes": 31.64, "total_pass": 17.3038, "accurate_pass": 13.0531, "duels_won": 1.9369, "total_long_balls": 0.9733, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2945, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7533, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9877, "crosses_total": 2.5452, "crosses_accurate": 0.6611, "touches": 26.6325, "possession_lost": 8.3719, "dispossessed": 0.6173, "duels_lost": 2.2671, "aerial_lost": 0.7942, "total_contest": 0.6891, "won_contest": 0.5158, "ball_recovery": 2.147, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6113, 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"provider_weight": 0.0813, "squad_weight_total": 0.8839, "weight_share": 0.092, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.547, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adam Wharton", "weight": 0.1558, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1558, "runner_up": "Daichi Kamada", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1217, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ismaïla Sarr" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.5, "expected_assists": 0.98, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 457, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 23, "avg_rating": 6.81, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0 } }, "Forest": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Matz Sels": { "player_id": 78152, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 26, "height": 188, "market_value": 3700000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0508, "rating": 6.8989, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 26, 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"league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023932, "match_date": "2026-04-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.2753 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1266, "combined_rank_score": 550.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 604.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7806, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 497.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8989, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Matz Sels", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alex Valdés", "ranking": 1261 }, { "player_name": "Noh Dong-geon", "ranking": 1262 }, { "player_name": "Denilson", "ranking": 1263 }, { "player_name": "Séamus Coleman", "ranking": 1264 }, { "player_name": "Castello Lukeba", "ranking": 1265 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nathan Aké", "ranking": 1267 }, { "player_name": "Nicolas Raskin", "ranking": 1268 }, { "player_name": "Nicolas Jackson", "ranking": 1269 }, { "player_name": "Joël Veltman", "ranking": 1270 }, { "player_name": "Giorgi Papava", "ranking": 1271 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 36, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9978, "fbref_prior_metrics": { 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0.4961, "duels_lost": 0.176, "total_contest": 0.0786, "won_contest": 0.0786, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0693, "total_own_half_passes": 11.7255, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.1975 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-10T10:04:18.353158+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 199, "rows": 6796 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.711, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8323, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.5212, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.1223, "save_contribution": 2.7631, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.7722 }, "per_target": [ { "target": 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"margin": -0.040918 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.022659 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.021109 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.017286 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.013562 } ], "others_margin": 0.008773 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.898935794830322, "model_output": 6.8989, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0254 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0126 } ], "others": 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2333 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0586 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.047 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0364 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0256 } ], "others": -0.0737, "total": 0.7388, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.297219 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.066735 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.057009 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.044371 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.031047 } ], "others_margin": -0.094916 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8212714195251465, "model_output": 6.8213, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": 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"Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0073, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2188, "goals": 0.2268, "goal_rate": 0.2268, "shots_on_target": 0.7299, "total_shots": 2.1464, "expected_assists": 0.0628, "key_pass": 0.7442, "rating": 6.8213, "minutes": 79.83, "total_pass": 12.7169, "accurate_pass": 9.0799, "duels_won": 4.7914, "total_long_balls": 0.2039, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0384, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0055, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1236, "crosses_total": 0.2941, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.4439, "possession_lost": 8.5335, "dispossessed": 1.4627, "duels_lost": 6.3217, "aerial_lost": 1.8707, "total_contest": 1.9154, "won_contest": 1.3401, "ball_recovery": 2.2988, "challenges_lost": 0.5737, "fouls": 1.8394, "fouls_drawn": 1.3311, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3514, 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1241 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0991 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0713 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0398 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0413 } ], "others": 0.1215, "total": 0.8211, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.324325 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.19979 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122414 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.062409 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.060779 } ], "others_margin": 0.16022 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.2267768383026123, "model_output": 2.2268, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.5451 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1929 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.1097 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0915 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0841 } ], "others": 0.213, "total": 2.2268, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.545149 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.192903 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.109659 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.091472 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.084126 } ], "others_margin": 0.213003 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.065389633178711, "model_output": 7.0654, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1166 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0515 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0324 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.025 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0183 } ], "others": 0.0093, "total": 7.0654, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.116595 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.051495 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.032397 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.024984 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.018277 } ], "others_margin": 0.009324 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 40, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0115, quality 0.866)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0083, "expected_assists": 0.1961, "assists": 0.1527, "assist_rate": 0.1527, "expected_goals": 0.2428, "goals": 0.295, "goal_rate": 0.295, "shots_on_target": 0.8305, "total_shots": 2.2524, "rating": 7.0654, "minutes": 88.81, "total_pass": 34.1488, "accurate_pass": 28.4276, "duels_won": 4.0267, "total_long_balls": 2.6265, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7984, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7992, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.236, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.3496, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1917, "crosses_total": 3.4317, "crosses_accurate": 0.9457, "touches": 52.5574, "possession_lost": 13.2996, "dispossessed": 1.1507, "duels_lost": 4.8381, "aerial_won": 0.6509, "aerial_lost": 1.3183, "interceptions": 0.2449, "tackles_won": 0.3718, "tackles": 0.8322, "clearances": 0.3888, "total_contest": 2.2485, "won_contest": 1.0795, "challenges_lost": 0.5039, "fouls": 0.697, "fouls_drawn": 1.4651, "blocks": 0.0607, "big_chances_created": 0.7586, "big_chances_missed": 0.4229, "xgot": 0.2991, "ball_carries": 16.8036, "total_progression": 73.3246, "progressive_carries": 2.4223, "shots_off_target": 1.4219 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 67000000, "quality_factor": 0.8661, "boost_factor": 1.0115, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0092)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.0083, "expected_assists": 0.1961, "assists": 0.1558, "assist_rate": 0.1558, "expected_goals": 0.2428, "goals": 0.2968, "goal_rate": 0.2968, "shots_on_target": 0.8274, "total_shots": 2.2498, "rating": 7.0654, "minutes": 88.81, "total_pass": 34.1488, "accurate_pass": 28.4276, "duels_won": 4.0267, "total_long_balls": 2.6265, "accurate_long_balls": 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"margin": 0.045904 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019789 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.018482 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.016583 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.014187 } ], "others_margin": -0.002406 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125903 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.079909 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.068133 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.051292 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.037906 } ], "others_margin": 0.139254 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.664851665496826, "model_output": 2.6649, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.4875 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3822 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2991 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.1875 }, { 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"name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4012 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0769 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0345 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0319 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0299 } ], "others": 0.084, "total": 1.1295, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.40117 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.076891 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.034475 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.03189 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.029901 } ], "others_margin": 0.084038 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.770722389221191, "model_output": 6.7707, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], 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substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0058, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9416, "tackles": 2.179, "tackles_won": 1.4202, "clearances": 2.6803, "aerial_won": 0.8706, "total_shots": 1.1361, "rating": 6.7707, "minutes": 89.08, "total_pass": 34.3811, "accurate_pass": 26.7667, "duels_won": 5.2573, "total_long_balls": 4.9403, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0471, "total_own_half_passes": 15.4878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5684, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8932, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1982, "crosses_total": 5.1371, "crosses_accurate": 1.5326, "touches": 63.055, "possession_lost": 15.8459, "dispossessed": 0.5205, "duels_lost": 4.6369, "aerial_lost": 1.2169, "total_contest": 1.5777, "won_contest": 0.4251, "ball_recovery": 5.2328, "challenges_lost": 0.8695, "fouls": 1.0082, "fouls_drawn": 1.4353, "blocks": 0.5057, "goals": 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"name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.074634 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.049454 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.037539 } ], "others_margin": -0.215338 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.920186996459961, "model_output": 6.9202, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0877 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0519 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0287 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.014 } ], "others": -0.0678, "total": 6.9202, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.087735 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.05193 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028736 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.015233 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.013958 } ], "others_margin": -0.067896 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0017, quality 0.517)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5905, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "assists": 0.0523, "assist_rate": 0.0523, "expected_goals": 0.0547, "goals": 0.0728, "goal_rate": 0.0728, "shots_on_target": 0.271, "total_shots": 0.9625, "rating": 6.9202, "minutes": 88.67, "total_pass": 40.9911, "accurate_pass": 35.0336, "duels_won": 6.7036, "total_long_balls": 4.0399, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6366, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9474, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.131, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0437, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.9025, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.7887, "possession_lost": 9.0779, "dispossessed": 1.0829, "duels_lost": 4.1006, "aerial_won": 1.0489, "aerial_lost": 0.4201, "interceptions": 1.2558, "tackles_won": 2.7649, "tackles": 4.1056, "clearances": 1.2419, 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0654 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0539 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.04 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0285 } ], "others": -0.0429, "total": 1.1235, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.152932 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.065428 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.053926 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.039956 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.028483 } ], "others_margin": -0.042845 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.836641788482666, "model_output": 6.8366, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": 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"role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0061, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0738, "expected_assists": 0.0823, "assists": 0.0852, "assist_rate": 0.0852, "expected_goals": 0.1173, "goals": 0.0901, "goal_rate": 0.0901, "shots_on_target": 0.4137, "total_shots": 1.1304, "rating": 6.8366, "minutes": 76.51, "total_pass": 29.3665, "accurate_pass": 24.8954, "duels_won": 4.4641, "total_long_balls": 2.1222, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9117, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6082, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8026, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7584, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0928, "crosses_total": 1.6818, "crosses_accurate": 0.5568, "touches": 47.3935, "possession_lost": 7.689, "dispossessed": 0.1075, "duels_lost": 3.9542, "aerial_won": 1.8332, "aerial_lost": 1.9127, "interceptions": 0.4695, "tackles_won": 1.4981, "tackles": 2.3041, "clearances": 2.7324, "total_contest": 0.458, "won_contest": 0.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.7743, "fouls": 0.8409, "fouls_drawn": 0.2843, "blocks": 0.0036, "big_chances_created": 0.3378, "big_chances_missed": 0.3655, "xgot": 0.1392, "ball_carries": 7.4683, "total_progression": 17.9585, "progressive_carries": 0.5957, "shots_off_target": 0.7166 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0061, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0034)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0738, "expected_assists": 0.0823, "assists": 0.0849, "assist_rate": 0.0849, "expected_goals": 0.1173, "goals": 0.0898, "goal_rate": 0.0898, "shots_on_target": 0.4171, "total_shots": 1.1362, "rating": 6.8366, "minutes": 76.51, "total_pass": 29.3665, "accurate_pass": 24.8954, "duels_won": 4.4641, "total_long_balls": 2.1222, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9117, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6082, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8026, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7584, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0928, "crosses_total": 1.676, "crosses_accurate": 0.5568, "touches": 47.3935, "possession_lost": 7.689, "dispossessed": 0.1075, "duels_lost": 3.9542, "aerial_won": 1.8332, "aerial_lost": 1.9127, "interceptions": 0.4727, "tackles_won": 1.4978, "tackles": 2.3041, "clearances": 2.7324, "total_contest": 0.458, "won_contest": 0.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.7743, "fouls": 0.8429, "fouls_drawn": 0.2833, "blocks": 0.0036, "big_chances_created": 0.3378, "big_chances_missed": 0.3655, "xgot": 0.1392, "ball_carries": 7.4683, "total_progression": 17.9585, "progressive_carries": 0.5957, "shots_off_target": 0.7166 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0034, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8501, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1304, "after": 1.1362 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.6818, "after": 1.676 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0738, "expected_assists": 0.0823, "assists": 0.0849, "assist_rate": 0.0849, "expected_goals": 0.1173, "goals": 0.0898, "goal_rate": 0.0898, "shots_on_target": 0.4171, "total_shots": 1.1362, "rating": 6.8366, "minutes": 76.51, "total_pass": 29.3665, "accurate_pass": 24.8954, "duels_won": 4.4641, "total_long_balls": 2.1222, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9117, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6082, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8026, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7584, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0928, "crosses_total": 1.676, "crosses_accurate": 0.5568, "touches": 47.3935, "possession_lost": 7.689, "dispossessed": 0.1075, "duels_lost": 3.9542, "aerial_won": 1.8332, "aerial_lost": 1.9127, "interceptions": 0.4727, "tackles_won": 1.4978, "tackles": 2.3041, "clearances": 2.7324, "total_contest": 0.458, "won_contest": 0.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.7743, "fouls": 0.8429, "fouls_drawn": 0.2833, "blocks": 0.0036, "big_chances_created": 0.3378, "big_chances_missed": 0.3655, "xgot": 0.1392, "ball_carries": 7.4683, "total_progression": 17.9585, "progressive_carries": 0.5957, "shots_off_target": 0.7166 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0738, "expected_assists": 0.0823, "assists": 0.0849, "assist_rate": 0.0849, "expected_goals": 0.1023, "goals": 0.0783, "goal_rate": 0.0783, "shots_on_target": 0.3639, "total_shots": 0.9912, "rating": 6.8366, "minutes": 76.51, "total_pass": 29.3665, "accurate_pass": 24.8954, "duels_won": 4.4641, "total_long_balls": 2.1222, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9117, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6082, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8026, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7584, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0928, "crosses_total": 1.676, "crosses_accurate": 0.5568, "touches": 47.3935, "possession_lost": 7.689, "dispossessed": 0.1075, "duels_lost": 3.9542, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.9127, "interceptions": 0.4727, "tackles_won": 1.4978, "tackles": 2.3041, "clearances": 2.7324, "total_contest": 0.458, "won_contest": 0.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.7743, "fouls": 0.8429, "fouls_drawn": 0.2833, "blocks": 0.0036, "big_chances_created": 0.3378, "big_chances_missed": 0.3189, "xgot": 0.1214, "ball_carries": 7.4683, "total_progression": 17.9585, "progressive_carries": 0.5957, "shots_off_target": 0.6252, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8724, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.333, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Wharton", "opponent_faced": "Adam Wharton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Adam Wharton", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "duel_win_rate": 0.333, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8724, "skill_edge": -0.0908, "height_edge": 0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.6821, "defender_skill": 0.8839, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Adam Wharton", "market_value": 74000000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.8839 } ], "xg_override": 0.1023 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.8332, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1362, "after": 0.9912 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7166, "after": 0.6252 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4171, "after": 0.3639 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.3655, "after": 0.3189 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1392, "after": 0.1214 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1173, "after": 0.1023 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0898, "after": 0.0783 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.27 (squad xG sum 1.1768, xG scale 1.0800, xA scale 1.0800, team xA 0.96 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0738, "expected_assists": 0.0889, "assist_rate": 0.0849, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1105, "goal_rate": 0.0783, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3639, "total_shots": 0.9912, "rating": 6.8366, "minutes": 76.51, "total_pass": 29.3665, "accurate_pass": 24.8954, "duels_won": 4.4641, "total_long_balls": 2.1222, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9117, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6082, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8026, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7584, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0928, "crosses_total": 1.676, "crosses_accurate": 0.5568, "touches": 47.3935, "possession_lost": 7.689, "dispossessed": 0.1075, "duels_lost": 3.9542, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.9127, "interceptions": 0.4727, "tackles_won": 1.4978, "tackles": 2.3041, "clearances": 2.7324, "total_contest": 0.458, "won_contest": 0.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.7743, "fouls": 0.8429, "fouls_drawn": 0.2833, "blocks": 0.0036, "big_chances_created": 0.3378, "big_chances_missed": 0.3189, "xgot": 0.1311, "ball_carries": 7.4683, "total_progression": 17.9585, "progressive_carries": 0.5957, "shots_off_target": 0.6252, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8724, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.333, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Wharton", "opponent_faced": "Adam Wharton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8424, "creation_factor": 1.0197 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.271, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1768, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8864, "team_expected_assists": 0.9573, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7532, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.08, "xa_scale": 1.08, "opponent_lambda": 1.502, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1023, "after": 0.1105 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0823, "after": 0.0889 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0738, "expected_assists": 0.0889, "assist_rate": 0.0849, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1105, "goal_rate": 0.0783, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3639, "total_shots": 0.9912, "rating": 6.8366, "minutes": 76.51, "total_pass": 29.3665, "accurate_pass": 24.8954, "duels_won": 4.4641, "total_long_balls": 2.1222, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9117, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6082, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8026, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7584, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0928, "crosses_total": 1.676, "crosses_accurate": 0.5568, "touches": 47.3935, "possession_lost": 7.689, "dispossessed": 0.1075, "duels_lost": 3.9542, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.9127, "interceptions": 0.4727, "tackles_won": 1.4978, "tackles": 2.3041, "clearances": 2.7324, "total_contest": 0.458, "won_contest": 0.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.7743, "fouls": 0.8429, "fouls_drawn": 0.2833, "blocks": 0.0036, "big_chances_created": 0.3378, "big_chances_missed": 0.3189, "xgot": 0.1311, "ball_carries": 7.4683, "total_progression": 17.9585, "progressive_carries": 0.5957, "shots_off_target": 0.6252, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8724, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.333, "pressing_faced": 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assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0738, "expected_assists": 0.0889, "assist_rate": 0.0849, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1105, "goal_rate": 0.0783, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3639, "total_shots": 0.9912, "rating": 6.8366, "minutes": 76.51, "total_pass": 29.3665, "accurate_pass": 24.8954, "duels_won": 4.4641, "total_long_balls": 2.1222, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9117, "total_own_half_passes": 11.6082, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8026, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7584, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0928, "crosses_total": 1.676, "crosses_accurate": 0.5568, "touches": 47.3935, "possession_lost": 7.689, "dispossessed": 0.1075, "duels_lost": 3.9542, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.9127, "interceptions": 0.4727, "tackles_won": 1.4978, "tackles": 2.3041, "clearances": 2.7324, "total_contest": 0.458, "won_contest": 0.0424, "challenges_lost": 0.7743, "fouls": 0.8429, "fouls_drawn": 0.2833, "blocks": 0.0036, "big_chances_created": 0.3378, "big_chances_missed": 0.3189, "xgot": 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}, "Murillo": { "player_id": 1199282, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 183, "market_value": 49000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8938, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 41, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 65, "possession_lost": 8.7847, "dispossessed": 0.3516, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.006, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1286, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0667, "expected_assists": 0.0443, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0086, 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{ "global_player_rank": 791, "combined_rank_score": 381.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 372.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.968, "sofascore_appearances": 25.0, "fifa_rank": 390.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8938, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Murillo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Harry Maguire", "ranking": 786 }, { "player_name": "Ho-jun Son", "ranking": 787 }, { "player_name": "Mukhammadali Usmonov", "ranking": 788 }, { "player_name": "Hyeon-uh Jeong", "ranking": 789 }, { "player_name": "Julian Andres Bonilla Tovar", "ranking": 790 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Djalma Celestino Evaristo", "ranking": 792 }, { "player_name": "Nico O'Reilly", "ranking": 793 }, { "player_name": "Christoph Baumgartner", "ranking": 794 }, { 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0737 } ], "others": -0.0415, "total": 1.703, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118555 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.094331 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.076286 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.053182 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.043175 } ], "others_margin": -0.024125 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7753616571426392, "model_output": 0.7754, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0686 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0359 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0192 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0152 } ], "others": 0.0397, "total": 0.7754, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.125696 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.068617 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.035856 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.019179 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.015174 } ], "others_margin": 0.039708 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.893780708312988, "model_output": 6.8938, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.031 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.017 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.013 } ], "others": 0.0081, "total": 6.8938, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.030993 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.024758 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.016974 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.014784 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.012967 } ], "others_margin": 0.008173 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0135, quality 0.821)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2154, "tackles": 1.6485, "tackles_won": 1.0016, "clearances": 5.6528, "aerial_won": 1.726, "total_shots": 0.7859, "rating": 6.8938, "minutes": 86.66, "total_pass": 47.4406, "accurate_pass": 40.6649, "duels_won": 3.9136, "total_long_balls": 6.5648, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5504, "total_own_half_passes": 27.7297, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.2517, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4132, "crosses_total": 0.0351, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.5994, "possession_lost": 8.7847, "dispossessed": 0.3516, "duels_lost": 4.2741, "aerial_lost": 1.2421, "total_contest": 1.3082, "won_contest": 0.5498, "ball_recovery": 3.6289, "challenges_lost": 0.5942, "fouls": 1.5158, "fouls_drawn": 0.2993, "blocks": 0.5382, "goals": 0.0061, 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"contribution": 0.0523 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0419 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0165 } ], "others": -0.0313, "total": 0.4675, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052309 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.041902 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.024582 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.023848 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.01646 } ], "others_margin": -0.031265 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.734020233154297, "model_output": 6.734, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2283 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.044 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0124 } ], "others": -0.0628, "total": 0.2355, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.228253 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.043975 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.014003 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.013113 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.012384 } ], "others_margin": -0.062864 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.764334678649902, "model_output": 6.7643, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0117 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0009, "total": 6.7643, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.022001 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.011721 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011449 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.009959 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008161 } ], 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2701 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0261 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0217 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0167 } ], "others": -0.0103, "total": 0.2773, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.27008 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.02609 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.02213 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.021716 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.016661 } ], "others_margin": -0.010362 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.746291160583496, "model_output": 6.7463, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": -0.0278, "total": 6.7463, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.019048 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.014027 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.012727 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010104 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008565 } ], "others_margin": -0.02788 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0050, quality 0.594)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3865, "tackles": 0.7695, "tackles_won": 0.4756, "clearances": 1.1398, "aerial_won": 0.6732, "total_shots": 0.2787, "rating": 6.7463, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 33.202, "accurate_pass": 26.1032, "duels_won": 5.5824, "total_long_balls": 3.9696, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6368, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6943, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3688, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5078, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.7345, "crosses_total": 1.6962, "crosses_accurate": 0.3743, "touches": 56.5781, "possession_lost": 14.3266, "dispossessed": 0.6896, "duels_lost": 4.2163, "aerial_lost": 0.9649, "total_contest": 1.5734, "won_contest": 0.7725, "ball_recovery": 3.6081, "challenges_lost": 0.9442, "fouls": 0.8664, "fouls_drawn": 1.0161, "blocks": 0.0673, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0158, "expected_assists": 0.0791, "shots_on_target": 0.1036, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0109, "ball_carries": 10.8507, "total_progression": 42.4889, "progressive_carries": 1.0018, "key_pass": 0.6557, "shots_off_target": 0.1751 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16399999, "quality_factor": 0.5942, "boost_factor": 1.005, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0144)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3825, "tackles": 0.7695, "tackles_won": 0.4703, "clearances": 1.1398, "aerial_won": 0.6732, "total_shots": 0.278, "rating": 6.7463, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 33.202, "accurate_pass": 26.1032, "duels_won": 5.5824, "total_long_balls": 3.9696, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6368, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6943, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3688, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5078, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.7345, "crosses_total": 1.6813, "crosses_accurate": 0.3743, "touches": 56.5781, "possession_lost": 14.3266, "dispossessed": 0.6896, "duels_lost": 4.2163, "aerial_lost": 0.9649, "total_contest": 1.5734, "won_contest": 0.7725, "ball_recovery": 3.6081, "challenges_lost": 0.9442, "fouls": 0.8587, "fouls_drawn": 1.0046, "blocks": 0.0673, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0158, "expected_assists": 0.0791, "shots_on_target": 0.1038, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0109, "ball_carries": 10.8507, "total_progression": 42.4889, "progressive_carries": 1.0018, "key_pass": 0.6557, "shots_off_target": 0.1751 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0144, "history_matches": 22, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Nottingham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.6962, "after": 1.6813 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.0161, "after": 1.0046 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8664, "after": 0.8587 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.4756, "after": 0.4703 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 14.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3016, "tackles": 0.6068, "tackles_won": 0.3708, "clearances": 0.8987, "aerial_won": 0.5308, "total_shots": 0.2199, "rating": 6.7463, "minutes": 14.19, "total_pass": 26.1801, "accurate_pass": 20.5826, "duels_won": 4.4018, "total_long_balls": 3.1301, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2906, "total_own_half_passes": 13.1636, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5414, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0166, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0413, "crosses_total": 1.3257, "crosses_accurate": 0.2951, "touches": 44.6124, "possession_lost": 11.2967, "dispossessed": 0.6896, "duels_lost": 3.3246, "aerial_lost": 0.9649, "total_contest": 1.2406, "won_contest": 0.6091, "ball_recovery": 2.845, "challenges_lost": 0.9442, "fouls": 0.6771, "fouls_drawn": 0.7921, "blocks": 0.0531, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0125, "expected_assists": 0.0624, "shots_on_target": 0.0818, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 8.5559, "total_progression": 33.5029, "progressive_carries": 0.7899, "key_pass": 0.517, "shots_off_target": 0.1381, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.19, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 0.7885, "appearance_probability": 0.23 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3016, "tackles": 0.6068, "tackles_won": 0.3708, "clearances": 0.8987, "aerial_won": 0.5308, "total_shots": 0.2199, "rating": 6.7463, "minutes": 14.19, "total_pass": 26.1801, "accurate_pass": 20.5826, "duels_won": 4.4018, "total_long_balls": 3.1301, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2906, "total_own_half_passes": 13.1636, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5414, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0166, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0413, "crosses_total": 1.3257, "crosses_accurate": 0.2951, "touches": 44.6124, "possession_lost": 11.2967, "dispossessed": 0.6896, "duels_lost": 3.3246, "aerial_lost": 0.9649, "total_contest": 1.2406, "won_contest": 0.6091, "ball_recovery": 2.845, "challenges_lost": 0.9442, "fouls": 0.6771, "fouls_drawn": 0.7921, "blocks": 0.0531, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0125, "expected_assists": 0.0624, "shots_on_target": 0.0818, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 8.5559, "total_progression": 33.5029, "progressive_carries": 0.7899, "key_pass": 0.517, "shots_off_target": 0.1381, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3016, "tackles": 0.6068, "tackles_won": 0.3708, "clearances": 0.8987, "aerial_won": 0.5308, "total_shots": 0.2199, "rating": 6.7463, "minutes": 14.19, "total_pass": 26.1801, "accurate_pass": 20.5826, "duels_won": 4.4018, "total_long_balls": 3.1301, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2906, "total_own_half_passes": 13.1636, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5414, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0166, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0413, "crosses_total": 1.3257, "crosses_accurate": 0.2951, "touches": 44.6124, "possession_lost": 11.2967, "dispossessed": 0.6896, "duels_lost": 3.3246, "aerial_lost": 0.9649, "total_contest": 1.2406, "won_contest": 0.6091, "ball_recovery": 2.845, "challenges_lost": 0.9442, "fouls": 0.6771, "fouls_drawn": 0.7921, "blocks": 0.0531, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0125, "expected_assists": 0.0624, "shots_on_target": 0.0818, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 8.5559, "total_progression": 33.5029, "progressive_carries": 0.7899, "key_pass": 0.517, "shots_off_target": 0.1381, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.19, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.23, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3016, "tackles": 0.6068, "tackles_won": 0.3708, "clearances": 0.8987, "aerial_won": 0.5308, "total_shots": 0.2199, "rating": 6.7463, "minutes": 14.19, "total_pass": 26.1801, "accurate_pass": 20.5826, "duels_won": 4.4018, "total_long_balls": 3.1301, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2906, "total_own_half_passes": 13.1636, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5414, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0166, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0413, "crosses_total": 1.3257, "crosses_accurate": 0.2951, "touches": 44.6124, "possession_lost": 11.2967, "dispossessed": 0.6896, "duels_lost": 3.3246, "aerial_lost": 0.9649, "total_contest": 1.2406, "won_contest": 0.6091, "ball_recovery": 2.845, "challenges_lost": 0.9442, "fouls": 0.6771, "fouls_drawn": 0.7921, "blocks": 0.0531, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0125, "expected_assists": 0.0624, "shots_on_target": 0.0818, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 8.5559, "total_progression": 33.5029, "progressive_carries": 0.7899, "key_pass": 0.517, "shots_off_target": 0.1381, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.19, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1443, "fifa_rank": 857.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } } ] }, "Omari Hutchinson": { "player_id": 1090963, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 174, "market_value": 28000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0997, "assist_rate": 0.0894, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "goal_rate": 0.0409, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.74, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0405, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 45, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0118, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0518, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9796, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023964, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1602, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1963, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023943, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0905, "expected_assists": 0.2771, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023925, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023932, "match_date": "2026-04-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0604, "expected_assists": 0.0976, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025041, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": 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2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1908, "combined_rank_score": 738.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 379.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.963, "sofascore_appearances": 28.0, "fifa_rank": 1097.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7302, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ibrahim Sangaré", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Federico Lanzillotta", "ranking": 1903 }, { "player_name": "Dong-su Lee", "ranking": 1904 }, { "player_name": "Armand Laurienté", "ranking": 1905 }, { "player_name": "Álex Jiménez", "ranking": 1906 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Baleba", "ranking": 1907 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ramy Najjarine", "ranking": 1909 }, { "player_name": "Pape Matar Sarr", "ranking": 1910 }, { "player_name": "Christian Moreno", "ranking": 1911 }, { "player_name": "Juan Fuentes", "ranking": 1912 }, { "player_name": "Corey Hollman", "ranking": 1913 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1358 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.049 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0038 } ], "others": -0.0215, "total": 0.0776, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.543018 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.301659 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.164667 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.137715 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.037149 } ], "others_margin": -0.244806 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2830069363117218, "model_output": 0.283, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.315 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1863 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0392 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0314 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0234 } ], "others": -0.1122, "total": 0.283, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.314961 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.18632 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.039202 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.031417 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.023356 } ], "others_margin": -0.112201 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.730236053466797, "model_output": 6.7302, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0999 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0102 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0064 } ], "others": -0.0153, "total": 6.7302, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.099944 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 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"match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2855, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023925, "match_date": "2026-05-04", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8336, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 10, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023932, "match_date": "2026-04-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1372, "expected_assists": 0.0557, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3083, "combined_rank_score": 1050.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1403.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7151, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Igor Jesus", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Javi Galán", "ranking": 3078 }, { "player_name": "Matt O'Riley", "ranking": 3079 }, { "player_name": "Joshua King", "ranking": 3080 }, { "player_name": "Aitor Ruibal", "ranking": 3081 }, { "player_name": "Artem Bondarenko", "ranking": 3082 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Luis Rioja", "ranking": 3084 }, { "player_name": "Roberto Alvarado", "ranking": 3085 }, { "player_name": "Callum Wilson", "ranking": 3086 }, { "player_name": "Victor Lindelöf", "ranking": 3087 }, { "player_name": "Oscar Bobb", "ranking": 3088 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 42, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.27590653284853, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.354, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0058, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Nottingham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (42 historical appearances) to 26.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.35); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1097, "goals": 0.1608, "goal_rate": 0.1608, "shots_on_target": 0.3752, "total_shots": 0.9645, "expected_assists": 0.0346, "key_pass": 0.3468, "rating": 6.7151, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 9.2092, "accurate_pass": 8.0653, "duels_won": 2.3576, "total_long_balls": 0.1263, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1263, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2929, "crosses_total": 0.3599, "crosses_accurate": 0.1074, "touches": 14.7094, "possession_lost": 3.0007, "dispossessed": 0.6208, "duels_lost": 2.5611, "aerial_lost": 1.0098, "total_contest": 0.1749, "won_contest": 0.1749, "ball_recovery": 1.3526, "challenges_lost": 0.2309, 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"match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 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"contribution": 0.0507 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0369 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0358 } ], "others": 0.0586, "total": 0.6355, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.530814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.134541 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.106072 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.070579 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.064029 } ], "others_margin": 0.09685 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6941633224487305, "model_output": 6.6942, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0668 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0102 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0171, "total": 6.6942, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.066819 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.014321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.010331 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.010162 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.009742 } ], "others_margin": -0.017092 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role 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0.0568, "goals": 0.0524, "goal_rate": 0.0524, "shots_on_target": 0.1923, "total_shots": 0.4636, "expected_assists": 0.0687, "key_pass": 0.694, "rating": 6.6942, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 11.655, "accurate_pass": 10.263, "duels_won": 1.4522, "total_long_balls": 0.8967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4855, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.572, "crosses_total": 1.8906, "crosses_accurate": 0.0769, "touches": 19.4651, "possession_lost": 5.7882, "dispossessed": 0.7899, "duels_lost": 2.2261, "aerial_lost": 0.2811, "total_contest": 1.4641, "won_contest": 0.6479, "ball_recovery": 1.5337, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2512, "fouls_drawn": 0.0905, "assists": 0.1734, "assist_rate": 0.1734, "interceptions": 0.2783, "tackles_won": 0.2317, "tackles": 0.6073, "clearances": 0.2317, "blocks": 0.0769, "big_chances_created": 0.0769, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0043, "offsides": 0.0437, "ball_carries": 5.7356, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.5018, "shots_off_target": 0.2713, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.612, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.46 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.27 (squad xG sum 1.1768, xG scale 1.0800, xA scale 1.0800, team xA 0.96 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0613, "goal_rate": 0.0524, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1923, "total_shots": 0.4636, "expected_assists": 0.0742, "key_pass": 0.694, "rating": 6.6942, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 11.655, "accurate_pass": 10.263, "duels_won": 1.4522, "total_long_balls": 0.8967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4855, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.572, "crosses_total": 1.8906, "crosses_accurate": 0.0769, "touches": 19.4651, "possession_lost": 5.7882, "dispossessed": 0.7899, "duels_lost": 2.2261, "aerial_lost": 0.2811, "total_contest": 1.4641, 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"squad_xa_sum": 0.8864, "team_expected_assists": 0.9573, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7532, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.08, "xa_scale": 1.08, "opponent_lambda": 1.502, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.612 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0687, "after": 0.0742 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0613, "goal_rate": 0.0524, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1923, "total_shots": 0.4636, "expected_assists": 0.0742, "key_pass": 0.694, "rating": 6.6942, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 11.655, "accurate_pass": 10.263, "duels_won": 1.4522, "total_long_balls": 0.8967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4855, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.572, "crosses_total": 1.8906, "crosses_accurate": 0.0769, "touches": 19.4651, "possession_lost": 5.7882, 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0.9588, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2079, "fifa_rank": 1102.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0613, "goal_rate": 0.0524, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1923, "total_shots": 0.4636, "expected_assists": 0.0742, "key_pass": 0.694, "rating": 6.6942, "minutes": 26.46, "total_pass": 11.655, "accurate_pass": 10.263, "duels_won": 1.4522, "total_long_balls": 0.8967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4855, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.572, "crosses_total": 1.8906, "crosses_accurate": 0.0769, "touches": 19.4651, 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"name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.041346 } ], "others_margin": -0.164379 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.045500047504901886, "model_output": 0.0455, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0394 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0034 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0028 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0025 } ], "others": -0.0039, "total": 0.0455, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.515957 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.241073 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.071536 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.055423 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.048655 } ], "others_margin": -0.084904 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.14190857112407684, "model_output": 0.1419, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1455 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0394 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0056 } ], "others": -0.0011, "total": 0.1419, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.595985 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.249547 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.09181 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.079453 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.039884 } ], "others_margin": -0.007529 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.37371882796287537, "model_output": 0.3737, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4291 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1966 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0441 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0299 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0178 } ], "others": -0.0231, "total": 0.3737, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.429128 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.196572 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.044075 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.029876 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.017824 } ], "others_margin": -0.023068 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.739967346191406, "model_output": 6.74, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0748 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": 0.03, "total": 6.74, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.074783 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.034706 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012963 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.008211 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008157 } ], "others_margin": 0.029915 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0082, quality 0.702)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.762, "expected_assists": 0.1036, "assists": 0.1003, "assist_rate": 0.1003, "expected_goals": 0.0227, "goals": 0.0459, "goal_rate": 0.0459, "shots_on_target": 0.1431, "total_shots": 0.3768, "rating": 6.74, "minutes": 25.83, "total_pass": 8.4469, "accurate_pass": 6.9003, "duels_won": 1.8721, "total_long_balls": 0.5687, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2879, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0222, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.656, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4247, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2444, "crosses_total": 3.3191, "crosses_accurate": 0.9088, "touches": 18.7407, "possession_lost": 6.0449, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.3201, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.088, "tackles_won": 0.2041, "tackles": 0.3556, "clearances": 0.2181, 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"accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0375, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2083, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.02, "projection_minutes": 25.83, "minutes_scale": 0.8912, "appearance_probability": 0.546 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6791, "expected_assists": 0.0923, "assists": 0.0894, "assist_rate": 0.0894, "expected_goals": 0.0202, "goals": 0.0409, "goal_rate": 0.0409, "shots_on_target": 0.1275, "total_shots": 0.3358, "rating": 6.74, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0375, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2083, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.27 (squad xG sum 1.1768, xG scale 1.0800, xA scale 1.0800, team xA 0.96 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6791, "expected_assists": 0.0997, "assist_rate": 0.0894, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "goal_rate": 0.0409, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1275, "total_shots": 0.3358, "rating": 6.74, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0405, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2083, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9796 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.271, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1768, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8864, "team_expected_assists": 0.9573, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7532, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.08, "xa_scale": 1.08, "opponent_lambda": 1.502, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.546 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0923, "after": 0.0997 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6791, "expected_assists": 0.0997, "assist_rate": 0.0894, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "goal_rate": 0.0409, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1275, "total_shots": 0.3358, "rating": 6.74, "minutes": 23.02, "total_pass": 7.5282, "accurate_pass": 6.1498, "duels_won": 1.6685, "total_long_balls": 0.5068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2566, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8023, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7259, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.674, "crosses_total": 2.9581, "crosses_accurate": 0.81, "touches": 16.7024, "possession_lost": 5.3874, "dispossessed": 0.5759, "duels_lost": 2.0678, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4231, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.1819, "tackles": 0.3169, "clearances": 0.1944, "total_contest": 1.2672, "won_contest": 0.8315, "challenges_lost": 0.5328, "fouls": 0.2667, "fouls_drawn": 0.52, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1647, "big_chances_missed": 0.069, "xgot": 0.0405, "ball_carries": 6.6574, "total_progression": 45.4217, "progressive_carries": 1.3317, "shots_off_target": 0.2083, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.546, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9796, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3283, "fifa_rank": 1796.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6791, "expected_assists": 0.0997, "assist_rate": 0.0894, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "goal_rate": 0.0409, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1275, "total_shots": 0.3358, 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"substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0118, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9796, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0118, "scorer_weight": 0.0149, "squad_weight_total": 1.2865, "weight_share": 0.0116, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.546, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6791, "expected_assists": 0.0997, "assist_rate": 0.0894, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "goal_rate": 0.0409, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1275, "total_shots": 0.3358, 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"per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0024 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0013 } ], "others": -0.006, "total": 0.0346, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.360047 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.099797 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.095853 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.063777 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.03185 } ], "others_margin": -0.160806 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.34676966071128845, "model_output": 0.3468, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2615 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": -0.0105, "total": 0.3468, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.490918 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.044241 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.034698 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.034112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.030384 } ], "others_margin": -0.030183 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.715073108673096, "model_output": 6.7151, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0689 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0174 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0071 } ], "others": -0.011, "total": 6.7151, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.068891 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.017438 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.011436 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.011108 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.007127 } ], "others_margin": -0.011051 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0058, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1103, "goals": 0.1617, "goal_rate": 0.1617, "shots_on_target": 0.3773, "total_shots": 0.9701, "expected_assists": 0.0348, "key_pass": 0.3488, "rating": 6.7151, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 9.2626, "accurate_pass": 8.1121, "duels_won": 2.3713, "total_long_balls": 0.127, "accurate_long_balls": 0.127, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2762, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3294, "crosses_total": 0.362, "crosses_accurate": 0.108, "touches": 14.7947, "possession_lost": 3.0181, "dispossessed": 0.6244, "duels_lost": 2.576, "aerial_lost": 1.0157, "total_contest": 0.1759, "won_contest": 0.1759, "ball_recovery": 1.3604, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.7036, "fouls_drawn": 0.5692, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4311, "tackles": 0.7026, "clearances": 0.3103, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3873, "xgot": 0.2928, "offsides": 0.1125, "ball_carries": 4.9846, "total_progression": 28.0668, "progressive_carries": 0.8988, "shots_off_target": 0.5927 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0058, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0092)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1103, "goals": 0.1602, "goal_rate": 0.1602, "shots_on_target": 0.3765, "total_shots": 0.9692, "expected_assists": 0.0348, "key_pass": 0.3488, "rating": 6.7151, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 9.2626, "accurate_pass": 8.1121, "duels_won": 2.3713, "total_long_balls": 0.127, "accurate_long_balls": 0.127, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2762, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3294, "crosses_total": 0.3587, "crosses_accurate": 0.108, "touches": 14.7947, "possession_lost": 3.0181, "dispossessed": 0.6244, "duels_lost": 2.576, "aerial_lost": 1.0157, "total_contest": 0.1759, "won_contest": 0.1759, "ball_recovery": 1.3604, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.7038, "fouls_drawn": 0.5693, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4285, "tackles": 0.7026, "clearances": 0.3103, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3873, "xgot": 0.2928, "offsides": 0.1128, "ball_carries": 4.9846, "total_progression": 28.0668, "progressive_carries": 0.8988, "shots_off_target": 0.5927 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0092, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2891, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Nottingham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 26.0 to 26.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.35)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1114, "goals": 0.1618, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "shots_on_target": 0.3802, "total_shots": 0.9787, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "key_pass": 0.3522, "rating": 6.7151, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 9.3537, "accurate_pass": 8.1919, "duels_won": 2.3946, "total_long_balls": 0.1282, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1282, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3916, "crosses_total": 0.3622, "crosses_accurate": 0.1091, "touches": 14.9402, "possession_lost": 3.0478, "dispossessed": 0.6244, "duels_lost": 2.6013, "aerial_lost": 1.0157, "total_contest": 0.1776, "won_contest": 0.1776, "ball_recovery": 1.3738, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.7107, "fouls_drawn": 0.5749, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4327, "tackles": 0.7095, "clearances": 0.3134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3911, "xgot": 0.2957, "offsides": 0.1128, "ball_carries": 5.0336, "total_progression": 28.3428, "progressive_carries": 0.9076, "shots_off_target": 0.5985, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.28, "projection_minutes": 26.02, "minutes_scale": 1.0098, "appearance_probability": 0.354 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1114, "goals": 0.1618, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "shots_on_target": 0.3802, "total_shots": 0.9787, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "key_pass": 0.3522, "rating": 6.7151, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 9.3537, "accurate_pass": 8.1919, "duels_won": 2.3946, "total_long_balls": 0.1282, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1282, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3916, "crosses_total": 0.3622, "crosses_accurate": 0.1091, "touches": 14.9402, "possession_lost": 3.0478, "dispossessed": 0.6244, "duels_lost": 2.6013, "aerial_lost": 1.0157, "total_contest": 0.1776, "won_contest": 0.1776, "ball_recovery": 1.3738, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.7107, "fouls_drawn": 0.5749, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4327, "tackles": 0.7095, "clearances": 0.3134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3911, "xgot": 0.2957, "offsides": 0.1128, "ball_carries": 5.0336, "total_progression": 28.3428, "progressive_carries": 0.9076, "shots_off_target": 0.5985, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.27 (squad xG sum 1.1768, xG scale 1.0800, xA scale 1.0800, team xA 0.96 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1203, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3802, "total_shots": 0.9787, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "key_pass": 0.3522, "rating": 6.7151, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 9.3537, "accurate_pass": 8.1919, "duels_won": 2.3946, "total_long_balls": 0.1282, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1282, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3916, "crosses_total": 0.3622, "crosses_accurate": 0.1091, "touches": 14.9402, "possession_lost": 3.0478, "dispossessed": 0.6244, "duels_lost": 2.6013, "aerial_lost": 1.0157, "total_contest": 0.1776, "won_contest": 0.1776, "ball_recovery": 1.3738, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.7107, "fouls_drawn": 0.5749, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4327, "tackles": 0.7095, "clearances": 0.3134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3911, "xgot": 0.3194, "offsides": 0.1128, "ball_carries": 5.0336, "total_progression": 28.3428, "progressive_carries": 0.9076, "shots_off_target": 0.5985, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.271, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1768, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8864, "team_expected_assists": 0.9573, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7532, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.08, "xa_scale": 1.08, "opponent_lambda": 1.502, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.354 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1114, "after": 0.1203 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1203, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3802, "total_shots": 0.9787, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "key_pass": 0.3522, "rating": 6.7151, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 9.3537, "accurate_pass": 8.1919, "duels_won": 2.3946, "total_long_balls": 0.1282, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1282, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3916, "crosses_total": 0.3622, "crosses_accurate": 0.1091, "touches": 14.9402, "possession_lost": 3.0478, "dispossessed": 0.6244, "duels_lost": 2.6013, "aerial_lost": 1.0157, "total_contest": 0.1776, "won_contest": 0.1776, "ball_recovery": 1.3738, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.7107, "fouls_drawn": 0.5749, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4327, "tackles": 0.7095, "clearances": 0.3134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3911, "xgot": 0.3194, "offsides": 0.1128, "ball_carries": 5.0336, "total_progression": 28.3428, "progressive_carries": 0.9076, "shots_off_target": 0.5985, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3083, "fifa_rank": 1403.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1203, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3802, "total_shots": 0.9787, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "key_pass": 0.3522, "rating": 6.7151, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 9.3537, "accurate_pass": 8.1919, "duels_won": 2.3946, "total_long_balls": 0.1282, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1282, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3916, "crosses_total": 0.3622, "crosses_accurate": 0.1091, "touches": 14.9402, "possession_lost": 3.0478, "dispossessed": 0.6244, "duels_lost": 2.6013, "aerial_lost": 1.0157, "total_contest": 0.1776, "won_contest": 0.1776, "ball_recovery": 1.3738, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.7107, "fouls_drawn": 0.5749, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4327, "tackles": 0.7095, "clearances": 0.3134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3911, "xgot": 0.3194, "offsides": 0.1128, "ball_carries": 5.0336, "total_progression": 28.3428, "progressive_carries": 0.9076, "shots_off_target": 0.5985, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0401, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0401, "scorer_weight": 0.0532, "squad_weight_total": 1.2865, "weight_share": 0.0414, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.354, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1203, "goal_rate": 0.1618, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3802, "total_shots": 0.9787, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "key_pass": 0.3522, "rating": 6.7151, "minutes": 26.28, "total_pass": 9.3537, "accurate_pass": 8.1919, "duels_won": 2.3946, "total_long_balls": 0.1282, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1282, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3916, "crosses_total": 0.3622, "crosses_accurate": 0.1091, "touches": 14.9402, "possession_lost": 3.0478, "dispossessed": 0.6244, "duels_lost": 2.6013, "aerial_lost": 1.0157, "total_contest": 0.1776, "won_contest": 0.1776, "ball_recovery": 1.3738, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.7107, "fouls_drawn": 0.5749, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4327, "tackles": 0.7095, "clearances": 0.3134, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3911, "xgot": 0.3194, "offsides": 0.1128, "ball_carries": 5.0336, "total_progression": 28.3428, "progressive_carries": 0.9076, "shots_off_target": 0.5985, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.354, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.28, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.072, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0401, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0132, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0132, "provider_weight": 0.0107, "squad_weight_total": 0.8603, "weight_share": 0.0125, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.354, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.27, "expected_assists": 0.96, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 366, "interceptions": 5, "tackles": 20, "avg_rating": 6.85, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Tyrick Mitchell", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Xaver Schlager" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.517, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.499, "xg_contribution": 0.0995, "xg_multiplier": 1.1154, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Xaver Schlager", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 9500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.501 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tyrick Mitchell (LWB) is slightly favored against Xaver Schlager in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.12 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.099 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Adam Wharton", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 74000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.876, "defenders": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.866, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.467, "xg_contribution": 0.0792, "xg_multiplier": 1.0696, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "role": "CM", "market_value": 67000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.533 } ], "duel_analysis": "Adam Wharton (CM) is slightly favored against Morgan Gibbs-White in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.079 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Anan Khalaili", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.866, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.385, "xg_contribution": 0.0994, "xg_multiplier": 0.9482, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "role": "CM", "market_value": 67000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.615 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anan Khalaili (CM) is evenly matched against Morgan Gibbs-White in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €67M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.099 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Quinten Timber", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "James McAtee" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.592, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.447, "xg_contribution": 0.0954, "xg_multiplier": 1.0396, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James McAtee", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 16200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.553 } ], "duel_analysis": "Quinten Timber (RWB) is evenly matched against James McAtee in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.095 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ismaïla Sarr", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Murillo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.821, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.428, "xg_contribution": 0.347, "xg_multiplier": 0.967, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Murillo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.572 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ismaïla Sarr (SS) is evenly matched against Murillo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.347 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Murillo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.821, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.455, "xg_contribution": 0.2681, "xg_multiplier": 1.0077, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Murillo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.545 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jørgen Strand Larsen (SS) is evenly matched against Murillo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.268 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Daichi Kamada", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 10300000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.526, "defenders": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.866, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.32, "xg_contribution": 0.0602, "xg_multiplier": 0.8534, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "role": "CM", "market_value": 67000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.68 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daichi Kamada (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Morgan Gibbs-White in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€10M vs €67M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.85 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.060 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "James McAtee", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 16200000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.592, "defenders": [ "Quinten Timber" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.393, "xg_contribution": 0.1021, "xg_multiplier": 0.9604, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Quinten Timber", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.607 } ], "duel_analysis": "James McAtee (LWB) is evenly matched against Quinten Timber in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.102 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 67000000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.866, "defenders": [ "Adam Wharton" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.876, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.373, "xg_contribution": 0.2259, "xg_multiplier": 0.9304, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adam Wharton", "role": "CM", "market_value": 74000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.627 } ], "duel_analysis": "Morgan Gibbs-White (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Adam Wharton in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.226 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Daniel Muñoz", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Adam Wharton" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.876, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.333, "xg_contribution": 0.1023, "xg_multiplier": 0.8724, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adam Wharton", "role": "CM", "market_value": 74000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.667 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daniel Muñoz (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Adam Wharton in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €74M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.102 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Xaver Schlager", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 9500000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.517, "defenders": [ "Tyrick Mitchell" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.341, "xg_contribution": 0.0484, "xg_multiplier": 0.8846, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tyrick Mitchell", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.659 } ], "duel_analysis": "Xaver Schlager (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Tyrick Mitchell in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.88 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.048 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Liam Delap", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Jaydee Canvot" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.677, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.417, "xg_contribution": 0.2082, "xg_multiplier": 0.9517, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaydee Canvot", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.583 } ], "duel_analysis": "Liam Delap (SS) is evenly matched against Jaydee Canvot in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.208 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Dan Ndoye", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Jaydee Canvot" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.677, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.427, "xg_contribution": 0.1955, "xg_multiplier": 0.9658, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaydee Canvot", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.573 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dan Ndoye (SS) is evenly matched against Jaydee Canvot in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.195 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.73, "away_midfield_power": 0.684, "home_creative_power": 0.727, "away_creative_power": 0.746, "home_defensive_power": 0.686, "away_defensive_power": 0.577, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.516, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Tyrick Mitchell", "Adam Wharton", "Quinten Timber", "Anan Khalaili", "Daichi Kamada" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White", "James McAtee", "Xaver Schlager", "Daniel Muñoz" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.8, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.2, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.0, "home_throughball_threat": 2.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.8, "key_personal_duel": "Adam Wharton vs Morgan Gibbs-White", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.012, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.999 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.502, "away_lambda": 1.271, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Tyrick Mitchell": { "opponents": [ "Xaver Schlager" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Adam Wharton": { "opponents": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White", "Daniel Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Anan Khalaili": { "opponents": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White", "Daniel Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Quinten Timber": { "opponents": [ "James McAtee", "Morgan Gibbs-White" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ismaïla Sarr": { "opponents": [ "Murillo" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jørgen Strand Larsen": { "opponents": [ "Murillo" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Daichi Kamada": { "opponents": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White", "James McAtee" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jaydee Canvot": { "opponents": [ "Liam Delap", "Dan Ndoye" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Walter Benítez": { "opponents": [ "Dan Ndoye", "Liam Delap" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Chris Richards": { "opponents": [ "Dan Ndoye" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Honest Ahanor": { "opponents": [ "Liam Delap" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Xaver Schlager": { "opponents": [ "Tyrick Mitchell" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Morgan Gibbs-White": { "opponents": [ "Adam Wharton", "Anan Khalaili", "Daichi Kamada", "Quinten Timber" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "James McAtee": { "opponents": [ "Quinten Timber", "Daichi Kamada" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Murillo": { "opponents": [ "Ismaïla Sarr", "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Daniel Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Adam Wharton", "Anan Khalaili" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Liam Delap": { "opponents": [ "Jaydee Canvot" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Dan Ndoye": { "opponents": [ "Jaydee Canvot" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Matz Sels": { "opponents": [ "Ismaïla Sarr", "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jair": { "opponents": [ "Ismaïla Sarr" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Ousmane Diomande": { "opponents": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Neco Williams": { "opponents": [ "Ismaïla Sarr" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Adam Wharton vs Morgan Gibbs-White will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.05, Away: 0.88. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0071, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0071, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1671, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9092, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9293, "home_midfield_factor": 1.012, "away_midfield_factor": 0.999, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.706, "away_avg_quality": 0.6936, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0123, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.0405, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.0133, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.3108, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.025, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.0488, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.1491 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.012, "result": 1.1629 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1629 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.3373 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9483, "result": 1.2682 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0071, "result": 1.2772 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9092, "result": 1.1613 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1671, "result": 1.3284 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.3284, "result": 1.3284, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.025, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.3284, "result": 1.3284 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.3284 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1739, "result": 1.5019 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.5019 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.5019, "result": 1.502, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.502 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.502, "result": 1.502, "available": false }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.502 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.502 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.502, "result": 1.502, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.502 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8824, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0243 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.999, "result": 1.0233 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0233 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0233 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0091, "result": 1.0326 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0071, "result": 1.0399 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9293, "result": 0.9664 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.1464 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.1464, "result": 1.1464, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.025, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.1464, "result": 1.1464 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1464 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1252, "result": 1.2712 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.2712 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.2712, "result": 1.271, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.271 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.271, "result": 1.271, "available": false }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.271 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.271 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.271, "result": 1.271, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.271 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1739, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1252, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.502, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.271, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.5019, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.2712, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.502, "final_away_lambda": 1.271 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 15, "opponent_position": 13, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9483, "attack_index": 1.016, "defense_concede_index": 0.864, "form_multiplier": 0.995, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.43, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.22, "team_ppg": 1.09, "opponent_ppg": 1.19 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 13, "opponent_position": 15, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0091, "attack_index": 0.824, "defense_concede_index": 1.238, "form_multiplier": 1.005, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.16, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.74, "team_ppg": 1.19, "opponent_ppg": 1.09 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Crystal Palace vs Forest. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-4-2-1 vs 3-4-2-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.502, Away 1.271). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.502, Away 1.271 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 7, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.502, "away_lambda": 1.271, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.502, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.271 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-10T13:34:43Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }