{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Osasuna", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261011", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1207, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Real Betis", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2143, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1207 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1173 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1019 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.098 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0756 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0633, "0-1": 0.0518, "0-2": 0.0219, "0-3": 0.0061, "0-4": 0.0013, "1-0": 0.1207, "1-1": 0.1019, "1-2": 0.0423, "1-3": 0.0118, "1-4": 0.0025, "2-0": 0.1173, "2-1": 0.098, "2-2": 0.0409, "2-3": 0.0114, "2-4": 0.0024, "3-0": 0.0756, "3-1": 0.0631, "3-2": 0.0264, "3-3": 0.0073, "3-4": 0.0015, "4-0": 0.0366, "4-1": 0.0305, "4-2": 0.0127, "4-3": 0.0035, "4-4": 0.0007, "5-0": 0.0141, "5-1": 0.0118, "5-2": 0.0049, "5-3": 0.0014, "6-0": 0.0046, "6-1": 0.0038, "6-2": 0.0016, "7-0": 0.0013, "7-1": 0.0011 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.6313, "draw": 0.2143, "away_win": 0.1544 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5231, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4769, "btts_yes": 0.4849, "btts_no": 0.5151, "home_clean_sheet": 0.4339, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1446 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.8, "MCR": 7.01, "ATR": 7.02, "GK": 7.21 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.68, "MCR": 6.88, "ATR": 6.8, "GK": 7.09 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Real Betis vs Osasuna. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 5 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Real Betis 6W-2D-2L vs Osasuna over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Pablo Fornals vs Jon Moncayola will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.19, Away: 0.58. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.77, "home_lambda": 1.934, "away_lambda": 0.835, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 6, "away_wins": 2, "draws": 2, "home_multiplier": 1.0286, "away_multiplier": 0.9714 }, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.6313, "draw": 0.2143, "away_win": 0.1544 }, "favorite": "Real Betis", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6313, "fair_spread": 1.099, "fair_total": 2.769, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Betis", "estimate": 1.934, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Osasuna", "estimate": 0.835, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5231, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4849, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Betis", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4339, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Osasuna", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1446, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli (Real Betis)", "estimate": 0.4764, "probability": 0.379, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ante Budimir (Osasuna)", "estimate": 0.378, "probability": 0.3148, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli (Real Betis)", "estimate": 0.2709, "probability": 0.2373, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Moi Gómez (Osasuna)", "estimate": 0.1264, "probability": 0.1187, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.769, "expected_total_shots": 25, "expected_total_passes": 911, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.2, "possession_home_pct": 50.1, "possession_away_pct": 49.9, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Real Betis", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6313, "script": "Real Betis is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.10 goals and fair total 2.77.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Osasuna must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Real Betis lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Betis chance creation leans on Abdessamad Ezzalzouli against Asier Osambela in Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Real Betis: starters carry the main goal usage through Abdessamad Ezzalzouli; bench watchlist: Troy Parrott, Nelson Deossa.", "Osasuna: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Enzo Boyomo, Romain Del Castillo, Jonathan Dubasin.", "Assist usage should flow through Isco; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Real Betis tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.38 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Osasuna is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Real Betis.", "Osasuna wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Real Betis": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli": { "player_id": 1011375, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 177, "market_value": 43000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4764, "goal_rate": 0.4871, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.2709, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 7.2543, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 50, "possession_lost": 13.0932, "dispossessed": 1.7229, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.1556, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.6642, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 105, "progressive_carries": 5, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1841, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.605, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Asier Osambela", "opponent_faced": "Asier Osambela", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.379, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2373, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8114, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416313, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2047, "expected_assists": 0.1421, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416336, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4941, "expected_assists": 0.0792, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1031, "expected_assists": 0.6366, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083710, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7526, "expected_assists": 0.1328, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0357, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083608, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1744, "expected_assists": 0.0942, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083583, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3006, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083381, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.6889, "expected_assists": 0.2853, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083211, "match_date": "2026-04-24", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0553, "expected_assists": 0.3401, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 207, "combined_rank_score": 125.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 158.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2931, "sofascore_appearances": 29.0, "fifa_rank": 93.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.2543, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Guillermo Maripán", "ranking": 202 }, { "player_name": "Emil Tîmbur", "ranking": 203 }, { "player_name": "Matvii Ponomarenko", "ranking": 204 }, { "player_name": "Kim In-sung", "ranking": 205 }, { "player_name": "Marco Carnesecchi", "ranking": 206 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dávid Hancko", "ranking": 208 }, { "player_name": "Dae-han Park", "ranking": 209 }, { "player_name": "Vladimir Jovović", "ranking": 210 }, { "player_name": "Kenan Yıldız", "ranking": 211 }, { "player_name": "Ruslanbek Jiyanov", "ranking": 212 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 33, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0115, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 33 historical appearances across 7 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3092, "goals": 0.4068, "goal_rate": 0.4068, "shots_on_target": 0.9071, "total_shots": 2.2302, "expected_assists": 0.2011, "key_pass": 1.5637, "rating": 7.2543, "minutes": 81.35, "total_pass": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0088, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2207, "goals": 0.2039, "goal_rate": 0.2039, "shots_on_target": 1.0083, "total_shots": 3.8508, "expected_assists": 0.1446, "key_pass": 1.7039, "rating": 7.0425, "minutes": 79.66, "total_pass": 45.5017, "accurate_pass": 38.1668, "duels_won": 4.3227, "total_long_balls": 2.2939, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4596, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5926, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.9695, "crosses_total": 1.8778, "crosses_accurate": 0.3854, "touches": 63.0133, "possession_lost": 12.5545, "dispossessed": 0.6516, "duels_lost": 2.861, "aerial_lost": 0.2577, "total_contest": 2.0402, "won_contest": 1.2108, "ball_recovery": 3.7228, "challenges_lost": 0.3268, "fouls": 0.9878, "fouls_drawn": 1.3383, "assists": 0.0532, "assist_rate": 0.0532, "interceptions": 0.7267, 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0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0179 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0082 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0075 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0065 } ], "others": 0.0076, "total": 0.1341, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456317, "item_margins": [ { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.189343 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.123489 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.067879 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05811 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.050101 } ], "others_margin": 0.058583 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.12384864687919617, "model_output": 0.1238, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1335 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.086 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0936, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0212 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.006 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0054 } ], "others": -0.0024, "total": 0.1238, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.368441, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.203739 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.092829 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.087767 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.044757 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.041955 } ], "others_margin": -0.017878 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.08384939283132553, "model_output": 0.0838, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.108 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0886 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.08 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0494 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0512 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.043 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0359 } ], "others": -0.0301, "total": 0.3956, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.126872, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.220571 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.115374 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.106995 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.089144 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.081009 } ], "others_margin": -0.073284 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.3826693296432495, "model_output": 1.3827, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2864 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1475 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0475 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0383 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0237 } ], "others": -0.0557, "total": 1.3827, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.2864 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.147518 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.047513 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.038258 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.023697 } ], "others_margin": -0.055673 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.937310218811035, "model_output": 6.9373, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0382 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0376 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0219 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0104 } ], "others": 0.0217, "total": 6.9373, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.038237 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.03765 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022139 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.021908 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010392 } ], "others_margin": 0.021691 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 15, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9955, quality 0.445)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8206, "expected_assists": 0.1235, "assists": 0.1335, "assist_rate": 0.1335, "expected_goals": 0.1233, "goals": 0.0835, "goal_rate": 0.0835, "shots_on_target": 0.3938, "total_shots": 1.3765, "rating": 6.9373, "minutes": 66.17, "total_pass": 37.3183, "accurate_pass": 34.3995, "duels_won": 2.1326, "total_long_balls": 2.3728, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8397, "total_own_half_passes": 11.7309, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.3378, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.5875, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.0618, "crosses_total": 2.2419, "crosses_accurate": 0.8876, "touches": 47.225, "possession_lost": 6.1741, "dispossessed": 0.1402, "duels_lost": 1.815, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6025, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1402, 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"clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1695, "combined_rank_score": 687.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 138.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.35, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1237.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0283, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marc Roca", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Chang-min Ahn", "ranking": 1690 }, { "player_name": "Borja Iglesias", "ranking": 1691 }, { "player_name": "Eli Dasa", "ranking": 1692 }, { "player_name": "Kamil Grabara", "ranking": 1693 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Bah", "ranking": 1694 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Til Mavretič", "ranking": 1696 }, { "player_name": "Vicente Álvarez", "ranking": 1697 }, { "player_name": "Matías Cavalleri", "ranking": 1698 }, { "player_name": "Arthur Theate", "ranking": 1699 }, { "player_name": "Javokhir Kakhramonov", "ranking": 1700 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", 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"is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2352 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1148 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0507 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0485 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0407 } ], "others": -0.1537, "total": 0.576, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.235196 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11482 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.050746 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.048492 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.040658 } ], "others_margin": -0.153667 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.0283331871032715, "model_output": 7.0283, "scale": 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"prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 28, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9980, quality 0.452)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7157, "expected_assists": 0.0561, "assists": 0.0552, "assist_rate": 0.0552, "expected_goals": 0.0381, "goals": 0.0428, "goal_rate": 0.0428, "shots_on_target": 0.1282, "total_shots": 0.5749, "rating": 7.0283, "minutes": 83.97, "total_pass": 50.6903, "accurate_pass": 46.4307, "duels_won": 3.8032, "total_long_balls": 4.2593, "accurate_long_balls": 2.878, "total_own_half_passes": 25.4932, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9129, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.1971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5178, "crosses_total": 0.1887, "crosses_accurate": 0.0833, "touches": 61.9017, "possession_lost": 5.7369, "dispossessed": 0.4087, "duels_lost": 3.1617, "aerial_won": 0.4681, "aerial_lost": 0.5025, "interceptions": 1.169, "tackles_won": 1.0442, "tackles": 2.0466, "clearances": 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"has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083191, "match_date": "2026-04-10", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Girona FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1276, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 53, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3196, "combined_rank_score": 1155.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 745.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1565.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7676, "source_file": 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per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1612 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1495 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.087 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3784, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.4451 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1269 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1044 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0729 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.057 } ], "others": -0.1075, "total": 0.6734, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320928, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.389955 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.146141 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121704 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.083412 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.070438 } ], "others_margin": -0.148093 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3861503303050995, "model_output": 0.3862, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.137 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0507 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0078 } ], "others": -0.0342, "total": 0.3862, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.137043 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050651 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.023095 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.019136 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.007756 } ], "others_margin": -0.034252 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.767583847045898, "model_output": 6.7676, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0172 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0066 } ], "others": 0.005, "total": 6.7676, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.017249 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.012046 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.011872 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010114 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.006621 } ], "others_margin": 0.005018 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9988, quality 0.485)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9743, "tackles": 2.0854, "tackles_won": 1.4366, "clearances": 2.2615, "aerial_won": 0.6726, "total_shots": 0.3858, "rating": 6.7676, "minutes": 88.26, "total_pass": 44.1585, "accurate_pass": 38.4428, "duels_won": 4.2842, "total_long_balls": 3.3497, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5841, "total_own_half_passes": 19.4479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2533, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7106, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1895, "crosses_total": 2.6108, "crosses_accurate": 0.2988, "touches": 64.986, "possession_lost": 10.9965, "dispossessed": 0.4586, "duels_lost": 2.6189, "aerial_lost": 0.6791, "total_contest": 0.5605, "won_contest": 0.3727, "ball_recovery": 3.9071, "challenges_lost": 0.7121, "fouls": 0.6085, "fouls_drawn": 1.1463, "blocks": 0.3568, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0381, "assist_rate": 0.0381, "expected_goals": 0.0126, "expected_assists": 0.0481, "shots_on_target": 0.0324, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 17.5097, "total_progression": 87.5684, "progressive_carries": 2.4369, "key_pass": 0.593, "shots_off_target": 0.3534 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6900000, "quality_factor": 0.4854, "boost_factor": 0.9988, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 19, "history_shrink": 0.2083, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0217)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9797, "tackles": 2.0854, "tackles_won": 1.432, "clearances": 2.2615, "aerial_won": 0.6726, "total_shots": 0.3774, "rating": 6.7676, "minutes": 88.26, "total_pass": 44.1585, "accurate_pass": 38.4428, "duels_won": 4.2842, "total_long_balls": 3.3497, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5841, "total_own_half_passes": 19.4479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2533, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7106, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1895, "crosses_total": 2.6516, "crosses_accurate": 0.2988, "touches": 64.986, "possession_lost": 10.9965, "dispossessed": 0.4586, "duels_lost": 2.6189, "aerial_lost": 0.6791, "total_contest": 0.5605, "won_contest": 0.3727, "ball_recovery": 3.9071, "challenges_lost": 0.7121, "fouls": 0.613, "fouls_drawn": 1.1392, "blocks": 0.3568, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0461, "assist_rate": 0.0461, "expected_goals": 0.0126, "expected_assists": 0.0481, "shots_on_target": 0.0317, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 17.5097, "total_progression": 87.5684, "progressive_carries": 2.4369, "key_pass": 0.593, "shots_off_target": 0.3534 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0217, "history_matches": 19, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9807, "prior_reliability": 0.16, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.6108, "after": 2.6516 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.3858, "after": 0.3774 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.0381, "after": 0.0461 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.1463, "after": 1.1392 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.9743, "after": 0.9797 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9797, "tackles": 2.0854, "tackles_won": 1.432, "clearances": 2.2615, "aerial_won": 0.6726, "total_shots": 0.3851, "rating": 6.7676, "minutes": 88.26, "total_pass": 44.1585, "accurate_pass": 38.4428, "duels_won": 4.2842, "total_long_balls": 3.3497, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5841, "total_own_half_passes": 19.4479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2533, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7106, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1895, "crosses_total": 2.6516, "crosses_accurate": 0.2988, "touches": 64.986, "possession_lost": 10.9965, "dispossessed": 0.4586, "duels_lost": 2.6189, "aerial_lost": 0.6791, "total_contest": 0.5605, "won_contest": 0.3727, "ball_recovery": 3.9071, "challenges_lost": 0.7121, "fouls": 0.613, "fouls_drawn": 1.1392, "blocks": 0.3568, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0461, "assist_rate": 0.0461, "expected_goals": 0.0126, "expected_assists": 0.0481, "shots_on_target": 0.0317, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 17.5097, "total_progression": 87.5684, "progressive_carries": 2.4369, "key_pass": 0.593, "shots_off_target": 0.3534 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9797, "tackles": 2.0854, "tackles_won": 1.432, "clearances": 2.2615, "aerial_won": 0.6726, "total_shots": 0.3851, "rating": 6.7676, "minutes": 88.26, "total_pass": 44.1585, "accurate_pass": 38.4428, "duels_won": 4.2842, "total_long_balls": 3.3497, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5841, "total_own_half_passes": 19.4479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2533, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7106, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1895, "crosses_total": 2.6516, "crosses_accurate": 0.2988, "touches": 64.986, "possession_lost": 10.9965, "dispossessed": 0.4586, "duels_lost": 2.6189, "aerial_lost": 0.6791, "total_contest": 0.5605, "won_contest": 0.3727, "ball_recovery": 3.9071, "challenges_lost": 0.7121, "fouls": 0.613, "fouls_drawn": 1.1392, "blocks": 0.3568, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0461, "assist_rate": 0.0461, "expected_goals": 0.0126, "expected_assists": 0.0481, "shots_on_target": 0.0317, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 17.5097, "total_progression": 87.5684, "progressive_carries": 2.4369, "key_pass": 0.593, "shots_off_target": 0.3534, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.93 (squad xG sum 1.5037, xG scale 1.2862, xA scale 1.3318, team xA 1.26 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9797, "tackles": 2.0854, "tackles_won": 1.432, "clearances": 2.2615, "aerial_won": 0.6726, "total_shots": 0.3851, "rating": 6.7676, "minutes": 88.26, "total_pass": 44.1585, "accurate_pass": 38.4428, "duels_won": 4.2842, "total_long_balls": 3.3497, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5841, "total_own_half_passes": 19.4479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2533, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7106, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1895, "crosses_total": 2.6516, "crosses_accurate": 0.2988, "touches": 64.986, "possession_lost": 10.9965, "dispossessed": 0.4586, "duels_lost": 2.6189, "aerial_lost": 0.6791, "total_contest": 0.5605, "won_contest": 0.3727, "ball_recovery": 3.9071, "challenges_lost": 0.7121, "fouls": 0.613, "fouls_drawn": 1.1392, "blocks": 0.3568, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0461, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "expected_assists": 0.0641, "shots_on_target": 0.0317, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0158, "ball_carries": 17.5097, "total_progression": 87.5684, "progressive_carries": 2.4369, "key_pass": 0.593, "shots_off_target": 0.3534, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9796 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.934, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5037, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9439, "team_expected_assists": 1.2571, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2862, "xa_scale": 1.3318, "opponent_lambda": 0.835, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0481, "after": 0.0641 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9797, "tackles": 2.0854, "tackles_won": 1.432, "clearances": 2.2615, "aerial_won": 0.6726, "total_shots": 0.3851, "rating": 6.7676, "minutes": 88.26, "total_pass": 44.1585, "accurate_pass": 38.4428, "duels_won": 4.2842, "total_long_balls": 3.3497, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5841, "total_own_half_passes": 19.4479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2533, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7106, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1895, "crosses_total": 2.6516, "crosses_accurate": 0.2988, "touches": 64.986, "possession_lost": 10.9965, "dispossessed": 0.4586, "duels_lost": 2.6189, "aerial_lost": 0.6791, "total_contest": 0.5605, "won_contest": 0.3727, "ball_recovery": 3.9071, "challenges_lost": 0.7121, "fouls": 0.613, "fouls_drawn": 1.1392, "blocks": 0.3568, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0461, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "expected_assists": 0.0641, "shots_on_target": 0.0317, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0158, "ball_carries": 17.5097, "total_progression": 87.5684, "progressive_carries": 2.4369, "key_pass": 0.593, "shots_off_target": 0.3534, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9796, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3196, "fifa_rank": 1565.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9797, "tackles": 2.0854, "tackles_won": 1.432, "clearances": 2.2615, "aerial_won": 0.6726, "total_shots": 0.3851, "rating": 6.7676, "minutes": 88.26, "total_pass": 44.1585, "accurate_pass": 38.4428, "duels_won": 4.2842, "total_long_balls": 3.3497, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5841, "total_own_half_passes": 19.4479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2533, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7106, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1895, "crosses_total": 2.6516, "crosses_accurate": 0.2988, "touches": 64.986, "possession_lost": 10.9965, "dispossessed": 0.4586, "duels_lost": 2.6189, "aerial_lost": 0.6791, "total_contest": 0.5605, "won_contest": 0.3727, "ball_recovery": 3.9071, "challenges_lost": 0.7121, "fouls": 0.613, "fouls_drawn": 1.1392, "blocks": 0.3568, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0461, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "expected_assists": 0.0641, 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"integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9797, "tackles": 2.0854, "tackles_won": 1.432, "clearances": 2.2615, "aerial_won": 0.6726, "total_shots": 0.3851, "rating": 6.7676, "minutes": 88.26, "total_pass": 44.1585, "accurate_pass": 38.4428, "duels_won": 4.2842, "total_long_balls": 3.3497, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5841, "total_own_half_passes": 19.4479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2533, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7106, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.1895, "crosses_total": 2.6516, "crosses_accurate": 0.2988, "touches": 64.986, "possession_lost": 10.9965, "dispossessed": 0.4586, "duels_lost": 2.6189, "aerial_lost": 0.6791, "total_contest": 0.5605, "won_contest": 0.3727, "ball_recovery": 3.9071, "challenges_lost": 0.7121, "fouls": 0.613, "fouls_drawn": 1.1392, "blocks": 0.3568, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0461, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "expected_assists": 0.0641, "shots_on_target": 0.0317, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0158, "ball_carries": 17.5097, "total_progression": 87.5684, "progressive_carries": 2.4369, "key_pass": 0.593, "shots_off_target": 0.3534, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0161, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0621, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9796, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0621, "provider_weight": 0.0628, "squad_weight_total": 1.1393, "weight_share": 0.0551, "creation_factor": 0.9796, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.1722, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1722, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1629, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] }, "Natan": { "player_id": 1015287, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 188, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 50, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 67, "possession_lost": 4.8508, "dispossessed": 0.0788, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 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39, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0062, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8743, "tackles": 1.3038, "tackles_won": 0.7707, "clearances": 5.4921, "aerial_won": 2.1529, "total_shots": 0.4898, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 88.97, "total_pass": 54.2988, "accurate_pass": 49.7589, "duels_won": 3.9296, "total_long_balls": 3.9622, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5297, "total_own_half_passes": 36.9394, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.1046, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3594, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6542, "crosses_total": 0.0007, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.0963, "possession_lost": 4.8508, "dispossessed": 0.0788, "duels_lost": 1.6171, "aerial_lost": 0.7823, "total_contest": 0.2827, "won_contest": 0.2329, "ball_recovery": 3.3709, "challenges_lost": 0.1752, "fouls": 0.5309, "fouls_drawn": 0.3169, "blocks": 1.1401, "goals": 0.1098, "goal_rate": 0.1098, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0477, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "shots_on_target": 0.1101, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0632, "ball_carries": 19.4815, "total_progression": 60.7516, "progressive_carries": 0.6235, "key_pass": 0.3977, "shots_off_target": 0.3797 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0062, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0098)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8657, "tackles": 1.3038, "tackles_won": 0.7826, "clearances": 5.4921, "aerial_won": 2.1529, "total_shots": 0.4898, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 88.97, "total_pass": 54.2988, "accurate_pass": 49.7589, "duels_won": 3.9296, "total_long_balls": 3.9622, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5297, "total_own_half_passes": 36.9394, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.1046, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3594, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6542, "crosses_total": 0.0007, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.0963, "possession_lost": 4.8508, "dispossessed": 0.0788, "duels_lost": 1.6171, "aerial_lost": 0.7823, "total_contest": 0.2827, "won_contest": 0.2329, "ball_recovery": 3.3709, "challenges_lost": 0.1752, "fouls": 0.5305, "fouls_drawn": 0.3138, "blocks": 1.1401, "goals": 0.1087, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0477, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "shots_on_target": 0.109, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0632, "ball_carries": 19.4815, "total_progression": 60.7516, "progressive_carries": 0.6235, "key_pass": 0.3977, "shots_off_target": 0.3797 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0098, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9886, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7707, "after": 0.7826 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.8743, "after": 0.8657 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8657, "tackles": 1.3038, "tackles_won": 0.7826, "clearances": 5.4921, "aerial_won": 2.1529, "total_shots": 0.4898, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 88.97, "total_pass": 54.2988, "accurate_pass": 49.7589, "duels_won": 3.9296, "total_long_balls": 3.9622, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5297, "total_own_half_passes": 36.9394, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.1046, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3594, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6542, "crosses_total": 0.0007, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.0963, "possession_lost": 4.8508, "dispossessed": 0.0788, "duels_lost": 1.6171, "aerial_lost": 0.7823, "total_contest": 0.2827, "won_contest": 0.2329, "ball_recovery": 3.3709, "challenges_lost": 0.1752, "fouls": 0.5305, "fouls_drawn": 0.3138, "blocks": 1.1401, "goals": 0.1087, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0477, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "shots_on_target": 0.109, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0632, "ball_carries": 19.4815, "total_progression": 60.7516, "progressive_carries": 0.6235, "key_pass": 0.3977, "shots_off_target": 0.3797 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8657, "tackles": 1.3038, "tackles_won": 0.7826, "clearances": 5.4921, "aerial_won": 2.1529, "total_shots": 0.4898, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 88.97, "total_pass": 54.2988, "accurate_pass": 49.7589, "duels_won": 3.9296, "total_long_balls": 3.9622, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5297, "total_own_half_passes": 36.9394, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.1046, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3594, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6542, "crosses_total": 0.0007, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.0963, "possession_lost": 4.8508, "dispossessed": 0.0788, "duels_lost": 1.6171, "aerial_lost": 0.7823, "total_contest": 0.2827, "won_contest": 0.2329, "ball_recovery": 3.3709, "challenges_lost": 0.1752, "fouls": 0.5305, "fouls_drawn": 0.3138, "blocks": 1.1401, "goals": 0.1087, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0477, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "shots_on_target": 0.109, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0632, "ball_carries": 19.4815, "total_progression": 60.7516, "progressive_carries": 0.6235, "key_pass": 0.3977, "shots_off_target": 0.3797, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.93 (squad xG sum 1.5037, xG scale 1.2862, xA scale 1.3318, team xA 1.26 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8657, "tackles": 1.3038, "tackles_won": 0.7826, "clearances": 5.4921, "aerial_won": 2.1529, "total_shots": 0.4898, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 88.97, "total_pass": 54.2988, "accurate_pass": 49.7589, "duels_won": 3.9296, "total_long_balls": 3.9622, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5297, "total_own_half_passes": 36.9394, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.1046, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3594, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6542, "crosses_total": 0.0007, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.0963, "possession_lost": 4.8508, "dispossessed": 0.0788, "duels_lost": 1.6171, "aerial_lost": 0.7823, "total_contest": 0.2827, "won_contest": 0.2329, "ball_recovery": 3.3709, "challenges_lost": 0.1752, "fouls": 0.5305, "fouls_drawn": 0.3138, "blocks": 1.1401, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0614, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "shots_on_target": 0.109, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0813, "ball_carries": 19.4815, "total_progression": 60.7516, "progressive_carries": 0.6235, "key_pass": 0.3977, "shots_off_target": 0.3797, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8026 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.934, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5037, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9439, "team_expected_assists": 1.2571, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2862, "xa_scale": 1.3318, "opponent_lambda": 0.835, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0477, "after": 0.0614 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8657, "tackles": 1.3038, "tackles_won": 0.7826, "clearances": 5.4921, "aerial_won": 2.1529, "total_shots": 0.4898, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 88.97, "total_pass": 54.2988, "accurate_pass": 49.7589, "duels_won": 3.9296, "total_long_balls": 3.9622, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5297, "total_own_half_passes": 36.9394, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.1046, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3594, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6542, "crosses_total": 0.0007, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.0963, "possession_lost": 4.8508, "dispossessed": 0.0788, "duels_lost": 1.6171, "aerial_lost": 0.7823, "total_contest": 0.2827, "won_contest": 0.2329, "ball_recovery": 3.3709, "challenges_lost": 0.1752, "fouls": 0.5305, "fouls_drawn": 0.3138, "blocks": 1.1401, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0614, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "shots_on_target": 0.109, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0813, "ball_carries": 19.4815, "total_progression": 60.7516, "progressive_carries": 0.6235, "key_pass": 0.3977, "shots_off_target": 0.3797, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8026, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1452, "fifa_rank": 969.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8657, "tackles": 1.3038, "tackles_won": 0.7826, "clearances": 5.4921, "aerial_won": 2.1529, "total_shots": 0.4898, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 88.97, "total_pass": 54.2988, "accurate_pass": 49.7589, "duels_won": 3.9296, "total_long_balls": 3.9622, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5297, "total_own_half_passes": 36.9394, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.1046, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3594, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6542, "crosses_total": 0.0007, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.0963, "possession_lost": 4.8508, "dispossessed": 0.0788, "duels_lost": 1.6171, "aerial_lost": 0.7823, "total_contest": 0.2827, "won_contest": 0.2329, "ball_recovery": 3.3709, "challenges_lost": 0.1752, "fouls": 0.5305, "fouls_drawn": 0.3138, "blocks": 1.1401, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0614, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "shots_on_target": 0.109, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0813, "ball_carries": 19.4815, "total_progression": 60.7516, "progressive_carries": 0.6235, "key_pass": 0.3977, "shots_off_target": 0.3797, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0596, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8026, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0596, "scorer_weight": 0.0767, "squad_weight_total": 2.0478, "weight_share": 0.0375, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.5955, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5955, "runner_up": "Cucho Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4616 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8657, "tackles": 1.3038, "tackles_won": 0.7826, "clearances": 5.4921, "aerial_won": 2.1529, "total_shots": 0.4898, "rating": 6.8738, "minutes": 88.97, "total_pass": 54.2988, "accurate_pass": 49.7589, "duels_won": 3.9296, "total_long_balls": 3.9622, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5297, "total_own_half_passes": 36.9394, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.1046, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3594, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6542, "crosses_total": 0.0007, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.0963, "possession_lost": 4.8508, "dispossessed": 0.0788, "duels_lost": 1.6171, "aerial_lost": 0.7823, "total_contest": 0.2827, "won_contest": 0.2329, "ball_recovery": 3.3709, "challenges_lost": 0.1752, "fouls": 0.5305, "fouls_drawn": 0.3138, "blocks": 1.1401, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "goals": 0, 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0.0132, "squad_weight_total": 1.1393, "weight_share": 0.0116, "creation_factor": 0.8026, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.1722, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1722, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1629, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] }, "Diego Llorente": { "player_id": 305278, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 185, "market_value": 2600000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8409, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 40, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 58, 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6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.031044 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014368 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.012145 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.009155 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.008912 } ], "others_margin": 0.008038 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9959, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1355, "tackles": 1.3332, "tackles_won": 0.7931, "clearances": 5.9334, "aerial_won": 2.0593, "total_shots": 0.3189, "rating": 6.8409, "minutes": 79.76, "total_pass": 43.9383, "accurate_pass": 40.1046, "duels_won": 3.9502, "total_long_balls": 4.0323, "accurate_long_balls": 2.041, "total_own_half_passes": 32.3074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0028, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1018, "crosses_total": 0.0991, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.4129, "possession_lost": 4.4547, "dispossessed": 0.0569, "duels_lost": 2.3912, "aerial_lost": 1.2587, "total_contest": 0.1361, "won_contest": 0.1166, "ball_recovery": 2.5597, "challenges_lost": 0.3758, "fouls": 0.9053, "fouls_drawn": 0.4837, "blocks": 0.9444, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0176, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "shots_on_target": 0.1683, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.053, "ball_carries": 14.496, "total_progression": 49.6385, "progressive_carries": 0.3835, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1506 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9959, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 20, "history_shrink": 0.2, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0087)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1641, "tackles": 1.3332, "tackles_won": 0.7862, "clearances": 5.9334, "aerial_won": 2.0593, "total_shots": 0.3161, "rating": 6.8409, "minutes": 79.76, "total_pass": 43.9383, "accurate_pass": 40.1046, "duels_won": 3.9502, "total_long_balls": 4.0323, "accurate_long_balls": 2.041, "total_own_half_passes": 32.3074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0028, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1018, "crosses_total": 0.0982, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.4129, "possession_lost": 4.4547, "dispossessed": 0.0569, "duels_lost": 2.3912, "aerial_lost": 1.2587, "total_contest": 0.1361, "won_contest": 0.1166, "ball_recovery": 2.5597, "challenges_lost": 0.3758, "fouls": 0.9051, "fouls_drawn": 0.4795, "blocks": 0.9444, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0176, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "shots_on_target": 0.1668, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.053, "ball_carries": 14.496, "total_progression": 49.6385, "progressive_carries": 0.3835, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1506 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0087, "history_matches": 20, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8862, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1355, "after": 1.1641 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7931, "after": 0.7862 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1641, "tackles": 1.3332, "tackles_won": 0.7862, "clearances": 5.9334, "aerial_won": 2.0593, "total_shots": 0.3174, "rating": 6.8409, "minutes": 79.76, "total_pass": 43.9383, "accurate_pass": 40.1046, "duels_won": 3.9502, "total_long_balls": 4.0323, "accurate_long_balls": 2.041, "total_own_half_passes": 32.3074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0028, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1018, "crosses_total": 0.0982, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.4129, "possession_lost": 4.4547, "dispossessed": 0.0569, "duels_lost": 2.3912, "aerial_lost": 1.2587, "total_contest": 0.1361, "won_contest": 0.1166, "ball_recovery": 2.5597, "challenges_lost": 0.3758, "fouls": 0.9051, "fouls_drawn": 0.4795, "blocks": 0.9444, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0176, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "shots_on_target": 0.1668, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.053, "ball_carries": 14.496, "total_progression": 49.6385, "progressive_carries": 0.3835, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1506 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1641, "tackles": 1.3332, "tackles_won": 0.7862, "clearances": 5.9334, "aerial_won": 2.0593, "total_shots": 0.3174, "rating": 6.8409, "minutes": 79.76, "total_pass": 43.9383, "accurate_pass": 40.1046, "duels_won": 3.9502, "total_long_balls": 4.0323, "accurate_long_balls": 2.041, "total_own_half_passes": 32.3074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0028, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1018, "crosses_total": 0.0982, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.4129, 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"duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.93 (squad xG sum 1.5037, xG scale 1.2862, xA scale 1.3318, team xA 1.26 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1641, "tackles": 1.3332, "tackles_won": 0.7862, "clearances": 5.9334, "aerial_won": 2.0593, "total_shots": 0.3174, "rating": 6.8409, "minutes": 79.76, "total_pass": 43.9383, "accurate_pass": 40.1046, "duels_won": 3.9502, "total_long_balls": 4.0323, "accurate_long_balls": 2.041, "total_own_half_passes": 32.3074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0028, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1018, "crosses_total": 0.0982, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.4129, "possession_lost": 4.4547, "dispossessed": 0.0569, "duels_lost": 2.3912, "aerial_lost": 1.2587, "total_contest": 0.1361, "won_contest": 0.1166, "ball_recovery": 2.5597, "challenges_lost": 0.3758, "fouls": 0.9051, "fouls_drawn": 0.4795, "blocks": 0.9444, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0226, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "shots_on_target": 0.1668, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0682, "ball_carries": 14.496, "total_progression": 49.6385, "progressive_carries": 0.3835, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1506, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9294 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.934, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5037, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9439, "team_expected_assists": 1.2571, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2862, "xa_scale": 1.3318, "opponent_lambda": 0.835, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1641, "tackles": 1.3332, "tackles_won": 0.7862, "clearances": 5.9334, "aerial_won": 2.0593, "total_shots": 0.3174, "rating": 6.8409, "minutes": 79.76, "total_pass": 43.9383, "accurate_pass": 40.1046, "duels_won": 3.9502, "total_long_balls": 4.0323, "accurate_long_balls": 2.041, "total_own_half_passes": 32.3074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0028, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1018, "crosses_total": 0.0982, "crosses_accurate": 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"count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0636 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0365 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.026 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0244 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0125 } ], "others": -0.0098, "total": 0.5247, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.063586 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.036458 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026038 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.024377 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.012539 } ], "others_margin": -0.009743 } }, { "target": 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} ], "others_margin": -0.025785 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9974, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9342, "tackles": 1.9221, "tackles_won": 1.2253, "clearances": 2.1581, "aerial_won": 0.7226, "total_shots": 0.5234, "rating": 6.7144, "minutes": 87.29, "total_pass": 46.1296, "accurate_pass": 40.2643, "duels_won": 3.0695, "total_long_balls": 2.1941, "accurate_long_balls": 0.966, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7557, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5086, "crosses_total": 1.7996, "crosses_accurate": 0.2933, "touches": 66.2773, "possession_lost": 10.452, "dispossessed": 0.2619, "duels_lost": 3.2311, "aerial_lost": 0.4696, "total_contest": 0.5219, "won_contest": 0.2383, "ball_recovery": 3.1365, "challenges_lost": 1.3492, "fouls": 0.8667, "fouls_drawn": 0.1755, "blocks": 0.1644, "goals": 0.0584, "goal_rate": 0.0584, "assists": 0.0492, "assist_rate": 0.0492, "expected_goals": 0.0737, "expected_assists": 0.099, "shots_on_target": 0.3274, "big_chances_created": 0.0498, "xgot": 0.1137, "ball_carries": 13.422, "total_progression": 61.4891, "progressive_carries": 1.8498, "key_pass": 0.9137, "shots_off_target": 0.1959 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2500000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9974, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0122)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9228, "tackles": 1.9221, "tackles_won": 1.2157, "clearances": 2.1581, "aerial_won": 0.7226, "total_shots": 0.517, "rating": 6.7144, "minutes": 87.29, "total_pass": 46.1296, "accurate_pass": 40.2643, "duels_won": 3.0695, "total_long_balls": 2.1941, "accurate_long_balls": 0.966, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7557, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5086, "crosses_total": 1.8099, "crosses_accurate": 0.2933, "touches": 66.2773, "possession_lost": 10.452, "dispossessed": 0.2619, "duels_lost": 3.2311, "aerial_lost": 0.4696, "total_contest": 0.5219, "won_contest": 0.2383, "ball_recovery": 3.1365, "challenges_lost": 1.3492, "fouls": 0.8561, "fouls_drawn": 0.1734, "blocks": 0.1644, "goals": 0.0577, "goal_rate": 0.0577, "assists": 0.0486, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "expected_goals": 0.0737, "expected_assists": 0.099, "shots_on_target": 0.3234, "big_chances_created": 0.0498, "xgot": 0.1137, "ball_carries": 13.422, "total_progression": 61.4891, "progressive_carries": 1.8498, "key_pass": 0.9137, "shots_off_target": 0.1959 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0122, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9699, "prior_reliability": 0.1467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.9342, "after": 0.9228 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8667, "after": 0.8561 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.7996, "after": 1.8099 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.2253, "after": 1.2157 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5234, "after": 0.517 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9228, "tackles": 1.9221, "tackles_won": 1.2157, "clearances": 2.1581, "aerial_won": 0.7226, "total_shots": 0.5193, "rating": 6.7144, "minutes": 87.29, "total_pass": 46.1296, "accurate_pass": 40.2643, "duels_won": 3.0695, "total_long_balls": 2.1941, "accurate_long_balls": 0.966, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7557, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5086, "crosses_total": 1.8099, "crosses_accurate": 0.2933, "touches": 66.2773, "possession_lost": 10.452, "dispossessed": 0.2619, "duels_lost": 3.2311, "aerial_lost": 0.4696, "total_contest": 0.5219, "won_contest": 0.2383, "ball_recovery": 3.1365, "challenges_lost": 1.3492, "fouls": 0.8561, "fouls_drawn": 0.1734, "blocks": 0.1644, "goals": 0.0577, "goal_rate": 0.0577, "assists": 0.0486, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "expected_goals": 0.0737, "expected_assists": 0.099, "shots_on_target": 0.3234, "big_chances_created": 0.0498, "xgot": 0.1137, "ball_carries": 13.422, "total_progression": 61.4891, "progressive_carries": 1.8498, "key_pass": 0.9137, "shots_off_target": 0.1959 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9228, "tackles": 1.9221, "tackles_won": 1.2157, "clearances": 2.1581, "aerial_won": 0.7226, "total_shots": 0.5193, "rating": 6.7144, "minutes": 87.29, "total_pass": 46.1296, "accurate_pass": 40.2643, "duels_won": 3.0695, "total_long_balls": 2.1941, 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0.539, "opponent_faced": "Moi Gómez", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Moi Gómez", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.93 (squad xG sum 1.5037, xG scale 1.2862, xA scale 1.3318, team xA 1.26 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9228, "tackles": 1.9221, "tackles_won": 1.2157, "clearances": 2.1581, "aerial_won": 0.7226, "total_shots": 0.5193, "rating": 6.7144, "minutes": 87.29, "total_pass": 46.1296, "accurate_pass": 40.2643, "duels_won": 3.0695, "total_long_balls": 2.1941, "accurate_long_balls": 0.966, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7557, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5086, "crosses_total": 1.8099, "crosses_accurate": 0.2933, "touches": 66.2773, "possession_lost": 10.452, "dispossessed": 0.2619, "duels_lost": 3.2311, "aerial_lost": 0.4696, "total_contest": 0.5219, "won_contest": 0.2383, "ball_recovery": 3.1365, "challenges_lost": 1.3492, "fouls": 0.8561, "fouls_drawn": 0.1734, "blocks": 0.1644, "goal_rate": 0.0577, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0948, "expected_assists": 0.1318, "shots_on_target": 0.3234, "big_chances_created": 0.0498, "xgot": 0.1462, "ball_carries": 13.422, "total_progression": 61.4891, "progressive_carries": 1.8498, "key_pass": 0.9137, "shots_off_target": 0.1959, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.539, "opponent_faced": "Moi Gómez", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank 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0.5955, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5955, "runner_up": "Cucho Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4616 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9228, "tackles": 1.9221, "tackles_won": 1.2157, "clearances": 2.1581, "aerial_won": 0.7226, "total_shots": 0.5193, "rating": 6.7144, "minutes": 87.29, "total_pass": 46.1296, "accurate_pass": 40.2643, "duels_won": 3.0695, "total_long_balls": 2.1941, "accurate_long_balls": 0.966, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7557, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4212, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5086, "crosses_total": 1.8099, "crosses_accurate": 0.2933, "touches": 66.2773, "possession_lost": 10.452, "dispossessed": 0.2619, "duels_lost": 3.2311, "aerial_lost": 0.4696, "total_contest": 0.5219, "won_contest": 0.2383, 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"weight": 0.1279, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 9.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 10.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", 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"contribution": 0.0285 } ], "others": 0.0551, "total": 3.238, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.07688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.031724 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.014223 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.013386 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.012587 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.008991 } ], "others_margin": 0.01715 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.02312578074634075, "model_output": 0.0231, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0412 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0404 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0375 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0216, "items": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.043 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.03 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.0121 } ], "others": 0.0471, "total": 0.0231, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.021558, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.043006 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.029951 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.015027 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.013502 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.012148 } ], "others_margin": 0.047116 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.214428901672363, "model_output": 7.2144, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.038 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0361 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0028, "items": [ 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"history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0163)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2366, "goals_prevented": 0.0231, "rating": 7.2144, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4104, "accurate_pass": 19.9864, "total_long_balls": 12.549, "accurate_long_balls": 5.3141, "touches": 39.6712, "clearances": 1.4496, "ball_recovery": 8.0965, "high_claims": 1.1227, "punches": 0.3719, "aerial_won": 0.6021, "sweeper_actions": 1.5373, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4675, "saves_inside_box": 3.383, "possession_lost": 7.5348, "duels_won": 0.7744, "duels_lost": 0.0912, "total_contest": 0.1284, "won_contest": 0.1284, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0424, "total_own_half_passes": 18.4634, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1722 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0163, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" } }, { "step": 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"rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 43 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Betis, rel: 0.15, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8431, "expected_assists": 0.1529, "assists": 0.1083, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "expected_goals": 0.077, "goals": 0.0896, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "shots_on_target": 0.3541, "total_shots": 1.2291, "rating": 7.0711, "minutes": 81.11, "total_pass": 55.0461, "accurate_pass": 47.5614, "duels_won": 2.4875, "total_long_balls": 4.0772, "accurate_long_balls": 2.181, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6453, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6467, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.4008, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.9147, "crosses_total": 3.4418, "crosses_accurate": 0.9549, "touches": 68.4316, "possession_lost": 12.2912, "dispossessed": 0.4157, "duels_lost": 2.9542, "aerial_won": 0.2559, "aerial_lost": 0.6483, "interceptions": 0.7654, "tackles_won": 0.2473, "tackles": 0.5414, "clearances": 0.1205, "total_contest": 1.2244, "won_contest": 0.7599, "challenges_lost": 0.7935, "fouls": 0.8976, "fouls_drawn": 0.9362, "blocks": 0.0223, "big_chances_created": 0.1703, "big_chances_missed": 0.018, "xgot": 0.0734, "ball_carries": 22.0879, "total_progression": 54.2112, "progressive_carries": 0.6622, "shots_off_target": 0.875 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-11T10:26:42.530573+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1337, "players": 894, "rows": 23497 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, 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0.20672 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.142036 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.076588 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.074506 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.056822 } ], "others_margin": 0.176193 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.15294277667999268, "model_output": 0.1529, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1094 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1055 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.099 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0557 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0855, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0065 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0047 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0045 } ], "others": 0.0269, "total": 0.1529, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.458929, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.130855 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12355 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.057048 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.039837 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.036192 } ], "others_margin": 0.193757 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.10830894112586975, "model_output": 0.1083, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0515 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0436 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0436 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0319 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0099 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0062 } ], "others": -0.005, "total": 0.1083, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456317, "item_margins": [ { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.11549 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.103663 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.088983 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.086104 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056171 } ], "others_margin": -0.044652 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.07703244686126709, "model_output": 0.077, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1335 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.086 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0936, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0059 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.004 } ], "others": -0.0133, "total": 0.077, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.368441, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.125535 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118567 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.061799 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.04772 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.043434 } ], "others_margin": -0.158764 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.08964146673679352, "model_output": 0.0896, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0966, "items": [ { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0069 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0057 } ], "others": 0.0015, "total": 0.0896, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.337105, "item_margins": [ { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.105843 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.084197 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.083849 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.076502 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.062915 } ], "others_margin": 0.017075 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.3540503680706024, "model_output": 0.3541, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.108 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0886 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0663 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0473 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0391 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0245 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0195 } ], "others": -0.0494, "total": 0.3541, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.126872, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.186193 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114465 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.093468 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.059578 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.047095 } ], "others_margin": -0.131118 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.229049563407898, "model_output": 1.229, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1734 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1407 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0468 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0401 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0268 } ], "others": -0.0416, "total": 1.229, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.173404 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.140724 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.046799 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.040055 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.026839 } ], "others_margin": -0.041476 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.071091175079346, "model_output": 7.0711, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1424 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0292 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0167 } ], "others": 0.0431, "total": 7.0711, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.142421 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.037062 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.029224 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.026353 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.016723 } ], "others_margin": 0.043077 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 39, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0000, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8431, "expected_assists": 0.1529, "assists": 0.1083, "assist_rate": 0.1083, "expected_goals": 0.077, "goals": 0.0896, "goal_rate": 0.0896, "shots_on_target": 0.3541, "total_shots": 1.2291, "rating": 7.0711, "minutes": 81.11, "total_pass": 55.0461, "accurate_pass": 47.5614, "duels_won": 2.4875, "total_long_balls": 4.0772, "accurate_long_balls": 2.181, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6453, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6467, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.4008, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.9147, "crosses_total": 3.4418, "crosses_accurate": 0.9549, "touches": 68.4316, "possession_lost": 12.2912, "dispossessed": 0.4157, "duels_lost": 2.9542, "aerial_won": 0.2559, "aerial_lost": 0.6483, "interceptions": 0.7654, "tackles_won": 0.2473, "tackles": 0.5414, "clearances": 0.1205, "total_contest": 1.2244, "won_contest": 0.7599, "challenges_lost": 0.7935, "fouls": 0.8976, "fouls_drawn": 0.9362, "blocks": 0.0223, "big_chances_created": 0.1703, "big_chances_missed": 0.018, "xgot": 0.0734, "ball_carries": 22.0879, "total_progression": 54.2112, "progressive_carries": 0.6622, "shots_off_target": 0.875 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 1.0, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0099)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8431, "expected_assists": 0.1529, "assists": 0.1072, "assist_rate": 0.1072, "expected_goals": 0.077, "goals": 0.0887, "goal_rate": 0.0887, "shots_on_target": 0.3506, "total_shots": 1.2408, "rating": 7.0711, "minutes": 81.11, "total_pass": 55.0461, "accurate_pass": 47.5614, "duels_won": 2.4875, "total_long_balls": 4.0772, "accurate_long_balls": 2.181, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6453, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6467, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.4008, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.9147, "crosses_total": 3.4483, "crosses_accurate": 0.9549, "touches": 68.4316, "possession_lost": 12.2912, "dispossessed": 0.4157, "duels_lost": 2.9542, "aerial_won": 0.2559, "aerial_lost": 0.6483, "interceptions": 0.7741, "tackles_won": 0.253, "tackles": 0.5414, "clearances": 0.1205, "total_contest": 1.2244, "won_contest": 0.7599, "challenges_lost": 0.7935, "fouls": 0.8928, "fouls_drawn": 0.9269, "blocks": 0.0223, "big_chances_created": 0.1703, "big_chances_missed": 0.018, "xgot": 0.0734, "ball_carries": 22.0879, "total_progression": 54.2112, "progressive_carries": 0.6622, "shots_off_target": 0.875 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0099, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9012, "prior_reliability": 0.1467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2291, "after": 1.2408 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.9362, "after": 0.9269 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.7654, "after": 0.7741 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.4418, "after": 3.4483 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.2473, "after": 0.253 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8431, "expected_assists": 0.1529, "assists": 0.1072, "assist_rate": 0.1072, "expected_goals": 0.077, "goals": 0.0887, "goal_rate": 0.0887, "shots_on_target": 0.3506, "total_shots": 1.2408, "rating": 7.0711, "minutes": 81.11, "total_pass": 55.0461, "accurate_pass": 47.5614, "duels_won": 2.4875, "total_long_balls": 4.0772, "accurate_long_balls": 2.181, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6453, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6467, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.4008, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.9147, "crosses_total": 3.4483, "crosses_accurate": 0.9549, "touches": 68.4316, "possession_lost": 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0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0274 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": 0.0278, "total": 6.8202, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.027376 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.015671 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.015315 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011975 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008609 } ], "others_margin": 0.027832 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0338, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083207, "match_date": "2026-02-01", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083096, "match_date": "2026-01-25", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0351, "expected_assists": 0.1155, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083224, "match_date": "2026-01-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083218, "match_date": "2026-01-10", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4946, "combined_rank_score": 3037.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 157.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 5918.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.744, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Angel Ortiz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Efraín Álvarez", "ranking": 4941 }, { "player_name": "Milton Giménez", "ranking": 4942 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Castañeda", "ranking": 4943 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Moreno", "ranking": 4944 }, { "player_name": "Brian Gutiérrez", "ranking": 4945 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kevin Mier", "ranking": 4947 }, { "player_name": "Jeremy Sarmiento", "ranking": 4948 }, { "player_name": "Mohammed Kanno", "ranking": 4949 }, { "player_name": "Pedro Rebocho", "ranking": 4950 }, { "player_name": "Martín Cauteruccio", "ranking": 4951 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.758, "history_matches": 15, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 15, "data_confidence": 0.758, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.74776713229367, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.221, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9983, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Betis", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0533 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (15 historical appearances) to 13.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.22); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3274, "tackles": 0.7667, "tackles_won": 0.5056, "clearances": 0.7291, "aerial_won": 0.2673, "total_shots": 0.153, "rating": 6.744, "minutes": 14.8, "total_pass": 6.709, "accurate_pass": 5.7679, "duels_won": 0.9672, "total_long_balls": 0.4817, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4817, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9318, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3384, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4295, "crosses_total": 0.8604, "crosses_accurate": 0.2408, "touches": 12.6452, "possession_lost": 2.7976, "dispossessed": 0.3665, "duels_lost": 0.5712, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.174, "won_contest": 0.174, "ball_recovery": 0.9378, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2047, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0446, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.7444, "total_progression": 25.7159, "progressive_carries": 1.2037, "key_pass": 0.6195, "shots_off_target": 0.153 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-11T10:25:50.810190+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1337, "players": 623, "rows": 20487 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1644, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1397, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1187, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-08", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1009, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-21", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 21.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0858, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-15", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0729, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-01", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.062, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-25", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0527, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-17", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0448, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-10", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0381, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 15.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 1.3546, "aerialWon": 0.1009, "totalClearance_p90": 2.6286, "totalTackle": 2.8397, "totalPass": 25.0265 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.327440470457077, "model_output": 0.3274, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3015 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0387 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0279 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0248 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0238 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.859, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.472 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0435 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.011 } ], "others": -0.0243, "total": 0.3274, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.152032, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.797375 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.119231 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.041688 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.033438 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.031814 } ], "others_margin": -0.071376 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.7667253017425537, "model_output": 0.7667, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2671 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0423 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3957, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8018 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0338 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0329 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0328 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0292 } ], "others": 0.1099, "total": 0.7667, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.333417, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.854426 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.055394 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 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"margin": -0.788455 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.05653 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.043896 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.042402 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.041562 } ], "others_margin": 0.163344 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.7290847301483154, "model_output": 0.7291, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2968 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0817 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0344 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0202 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4412, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0648 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.3023 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0981 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0807 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0503 } ], "others": -0.1159, "total": 0.7291, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.235809, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.916335 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.247959 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.095793 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.086276 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.057867 } ], "others_margin": -0.147543 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.26729580760002136, "model_output": 0.2673, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1612 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1495 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.087 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3784, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7924 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2287 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0305 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0159 } ], "others": -0.0571, "total": 0.2673, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320928, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.85534 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.494819 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.089125 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.057686 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.050119 } ], "others_margin": -0.193476 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.15302129089832306, "model_output": 0.153, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2193 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0993 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0503 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0506, "total": 0.153, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.219329 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.099253 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.050304 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.011584 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.011151 } ], "others_margin": -0.050587 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.74398136138916, "model_output": 6.744, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0465 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0294, "total": 6.744, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.046508 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.02266 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.018551 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.00902 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008846 } ], "others_margin": -0.029417 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 15, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9983, quality 0.482)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3269, "tackles": 0.7654, "tackles_won": 0.5048, "clearances": 0.7278, "aerial_won": 0.2668, "total_shots": 0.1528, "rating": 6.744, "minutes": 14.8, "total_pass": 6.6976, "accurate_pass": 5.7581, "duels_won": 0.9656, "total_long_balls": 0.4809, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4809, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9268, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3344, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7708, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4237, "crosses_total": 0.8589, "crosses_accurate": 0.2404, "touches": 12.6237, "possession_lost": 2.7928, "dispossessed": 0.3659, "duels_lost": 0.5702, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1737, "won_contest": 0.1737, "ball_recovery": 0.9362, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2044, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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}, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0022 } ], "others": -0.0107, "total": 0.0273, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.337105, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.377231 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.262469 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.153061 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.083351 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.056967 } ], "others_margin": -0.331402 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.0708879828453064, "model_output": 0.0709, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.108 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0886 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1429 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 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0.99, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3285 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1808 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0341 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0322 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0277 } ], "others": -0.1192, "total": 0.2675, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.328523 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.18084 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.034087 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.032172 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.027659 } ], "others_margin": -0.119233 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.74675178527832, "model_output": 6.7468, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1028 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0093 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0078 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0077 } ], "others": -0.0021, "total": 6.7468, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.102804 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.00928 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.007911 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.007767 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.007718 } ], "others_margin": -0.002121 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0062, quality 0.624)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2469, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "assists": 0.0358, "assist_rate": 0.0358, "expected_goals": 0.0209, "goals": 0.0274, "goal_rate": 0.0274, "shots_on_target": 0.0713, "total_shots": 0.2691, "rating": 6.7468, "minutes": 21.69, "total_pass": 13.3549, "accurate_pass": 12.142, "duels_won": 1.8235, "total_long_balls": 0.4113, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3694, "total_own_half_passes": 6.8264, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.169, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9731, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.1683, "possession_lost": 2.1229, "dispossessed": 0.3077, "duels_lost": 1.3827, "aerial_won": 0.5016, "aerial_lost": 0.042, "interceptions": 0.4258, "tackles_won": 0.6364, "tackles": 0.6721, "clearances": 0.6282, "total_contest": 0.2844, "won_contest": 0.1303, "challenges_lost": 0.6293, "fouls": 0.2496, "fouls_drawn": 0.5689, "blocks": 0.1113, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0302, "ball_carries": 4.343, "total_progression": 7.7962, "progressive_carries": 0.1287, "shots_off_target": 0.1978 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19300000, "quality_factor": 0.6241, "boost_factor": 1.0062, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.7 to 22.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2585, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assists": 0.0375, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "expected_goals": 0.0219, "goals": 0.0287, "goal_rate": 0.0287, "shots_on_target": 0.0747, "total_shots": 0.2818, "rating": 6.7468, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 13.9839, "accurate_pass": 12.7138, "duels_won": 1.9094, "total_long_balls": 0.4307, 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"Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2585, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assists": 0.0375, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "expected_goals": 0.0219, "goals": 0.0287, "goal_rate": 0.0287, "shots_on_target": 0.0747, "total_shots": 0.2818, "rating": 6.7468, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 13.9839, "accurate_pass": 12.7138, "duels_won": 1.9094, "total_long_balls": 0.4307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3868, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1479, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4595, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8361, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2544, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.024, "possession_lost": 2.2229, "dispossessed": 0.3077, "duels_lost": 1.4478, "aerial_won": 0.5252, "aerial_lost": 0.042, "interceptions": 0.4459, "tackles_won": 0.6664, "tackles": 0.7038, "clearances": 0.6578, "total_contest": 0.2978, "won_contest": 0.1364, "challenges_lost": 0.6293, "fouls": 0.2614, "fouls_drawn": 0.5957, "blocks": 0.1165, 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"importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0936, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0361 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0074 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0075 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0062 } ], "others": -0.0019, "total": 0.0698, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.368441, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.487465 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.12123 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.109023 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.100851 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.091014 } ], "others_margin": -0.027244 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07951851189136505, "model_output": 0.0795, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0966, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0313 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.008 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0064 } ], "others": -0.0101, "total": 0.0795, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.337105, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.391688 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.192292 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.10633 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.086495 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.06894 } ], "others_margin": -0.119149 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.21372203528881073, "model_output": 0.2137, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.108 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0886 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1513 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0356 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0186 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0149, "total": 0.2137, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.126872, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.629076 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.187167 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.085709 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.057801 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.050428 } ], "others_margin": -0.067379 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.80253666639328, "model_output": 0.8025, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5103 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2443 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0488 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0407 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0246 } ], "others": -0.0356, "total": 0.8025, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.510294 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.244326 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.048762 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.040692 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.024581 } ], "others_margin": -0.035512 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.774750232696533, "model_output": 6.7748, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.103 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0397 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0071 } ], "others": 0.0023, "total": 6.7747, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.102973 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.039676 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020164 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012571 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.007117 } ], "others_margin": 0.002402 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0007, quality 0.520)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5554, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "assists": 0.0618, "assist_rate": 0.0618, "expected_goals": 0.0698, "goals": 0.0796, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "shots_on_target": 0.2139, "total_shots": 0.8031, "rating": 6.7748, "minutes": 17.97, "total_pass": 10.687, "accurate_pass": 8.6757, "duels_won": 2.736, "total_long_balls": 0.4081, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3851, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3855, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9293, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2902, "crosses_total": 0.1025, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.1135, "possession_lost": 3.3677, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.0387, "aerial_won": 1.2373, "aerial_lost": 0.5958, "interceptions": 0.0519, "tackles_won": 0.3382, "tackles": 0.3382, "clearances": 0.2985, 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"total_own_half_passes": 2.7576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3855, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9293, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2902, "crosses_total": 0.1015, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.1135, "possession_lost": 3.3677, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.0387, "aerial_won": 1.2373, "aerial_lost": 0.5958, "interceptions": 0.0528, "tackles_won": 0.3377, "tackles": 0.3382, "clearances": 0.2985, "total_contest": 1.1362, "won_contest": 0.8373, "challenges_lost": 0.152, "fouls": 0.5339, "fouls_drawn": 0.3214, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2126, "big_chances_missed": 0.1727, "xgot": 0.1135, "ball_carries": 5.6336, "total_progression": 30.1484, "progressive_carries": 0.8382, "shots_off_target": 0.5892 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0095, "history_matches": 27, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1997, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench 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"big_chances_created": 0.2358, "big_chances_missed": 0.1915, "xgot": 0.1259, "ball_carries": 6.2481, "total_progression": 33.4367, "progressive_carries": 0.9296, "shots_off_target": 0.6535, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.93, "projection_minutes": 17.97, "minutes_scale": 1.1091, "appearance_probability": 0.57 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.616, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "assists": 0.0679, "assist_rate": 0.0679, "expected_goals": 0.0774, "goals": 0.0874, "goal_rate": 0.0874, "shots_on_target": 0.2365, "total_shots": 0.8914, "rating": 6.7748, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 11.8526, "accurate_pass": 9.622, "duels_won": 3.0344, "total_long_balls": 0.4526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4271, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0584, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6457, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7942, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9763, "crosses_total": 0.1126, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.871, "possession_lost": 3.735, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.2611, "aerial_won": 1.3723, "aerial_lost": 0.5958, "interceptions": 0.0586, "tackles_won": 0.3745, "tackles": 0.3751, "clearances": 0.3311, "total_contest": 1.2601, "won_contest": 0.9286, "challenges_lost": 0.152, "fouls": 0.5921, "fouls_drawn": 0.3565, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2358, "big_chances_missed": 0.1915, "xgot": 0.1259, "ball_carries": 6.2481, "total_progression": 33.4367, "progressive_carries": 0.9296, "shots_off_target": 0.6535, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.93 (squad xG sum 1.5037, xG scale 1.2862, xA scale 1.3318, team xA 1.26 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.616, "expected_assists": 0.0526, "assist_rate": 0.0679, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0995, "goal_rate": 0.0874, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2365, "total_shots": 0.8914, "rating": 6.7748, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 11.8526, "accurate_pass": 9.622, "duels_won": 3.0344, "total_long_balls": 0.4526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4271, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0584, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6457, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7942, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9763, "crosses_total": 0.1126, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.871, "possession_lost": 3.735, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.2611, "aerial_won": 1.3723, "aerial_lost": 0.5958, "interceptions": 0.0586, "tackles_won": 0.3745, "tackles": 0.3751, "clearances": 0.3311, "total_contest": 1.2601, "won_contest": 0.9286, "challenges_lost": 0.152, "fouls": 0.5921, "fouls_drawn": 0.3565, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2358, "big_chances_missed": 0.1915, "xgot": 0.1619, "ball_carries": 6.2481, "total_progression": 33.4367, "progressive_carries": 0.9296, "shots_off_target": 0.6535, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.206, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0785, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.934, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5037, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9439, "team_expected_assists": 1.2571, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2862, "xa_scale": 1.3318, "opponent_lambda": 0.835, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.57 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0774, "after": 0.0995 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0395, "after": 0.0526 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.616, "expected_assists": 0.0526, "assist_rate": 0.0679, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0995, "goal_rate": 0.0874, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2365, "total_shots": 0.8914, "rating": 6.7748, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 11.8526, "accurate_pass": 9.622, "duels_won": 3.0344, "total_long_balls": 0.4526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4271, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0584, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6457, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7942, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9763, "crosses_total": 0.1126, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.871, "possession_lost": 3.735, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.2611, "aerial_won": 1.3723, "aerial_lost": 0.5958, "interceptions": 0.0586, "tackles_won": 0.3745, "tackles": 0.3751, "clearances": 0.3311, 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"ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3441, "fifa_rank": 2416.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.616, "expected_assists": 0.0526, "assist_rate": 0.0679, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0995, "goal_rate": 0.0874, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2365, "total_shots": 0.8914, "rating": 6.7748, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 11.8526, "accurate_pass": 9.622, "duels_won": 3.0344, "total_long_balls": 0.4526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4271, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0584, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6457, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7942, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9763, "crosses_total": 0.1126, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.871, "possession_lost": 3.735, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.2611, 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"expectedAssists", "margin": 0.010471 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010399 } ], "others_margin": -0.055357 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0258, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1868, "goals": 0.1794, "goal_rate": 0.1794, "shots_on_target": 0.4363, "total_shots": 0.8764, "expected_assists": 0.0336, "key_pass": 0.347, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 20.31, "total_pass": 8.1413, "accurate_pass": 6.239, "duels_won": 1.8539, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8419, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9396, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.15, "possession_lost": 4.6166, "dispossessed": 0.6977, "duels_lost": 2.3612, "aerial_lost": 1.109, "total_contest": 0.6438, "won_contest": 0.3219, "ball_recovery": 1.9022, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2325, "fouls_drawn": 0.5956, "assists": 0.3219, "assist_rate": 0.3219, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6629, "tackles": 0.9365, "clearances": 0.9909, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3219, "big_chances_missed": 0.4302, "xgot": 0.2245, "offsides": 0.2325, "ball_carries": 3.5718, "total_progression": 10.6267, "progressive_carries": 0.4302, "shots_off_target": 0.4401 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0258, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0192)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1868, "goals": 0.1759, "goal_rate": 0.1759, "shots_on_target": 0.4279, "total_shots": 0.875, "expected_assists": 0.0336, "key_pass": 0.347, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 20.31, "total_pass": 8.1413, "accurate_pass": 6.239, "duels_won": 1.8539, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8419, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9396, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.15, "possession_lost": 4.6166, "dispossessed": 0.6977, "duels_lost": 2.3612, "aerial_lost": 1.109, "total_contest": 0.6438, "won_contest": 0.3219, "ball_recovery": 1.9022, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2335, "fouls_drawn": 0.5841, "assists": 0.3157, "assist_rate": 0.3157, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6664, "tackles": 0.9365, "clearances": 0.9909, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3219, "big_chances_missed": 0.4302, "xgot": 0.2245, "offsides": 0.2335, "ball_carries": 3.5718, "total_progression": 10.6267, "progressive_carries": 0.4302, "shots_off_target": 0.4401 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0192, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2257, "prior_reliability": 0.0533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.5956, "after": 0.5841 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4363, "after": 0.4279 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.3219, "after": 0.3157 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.3 to 22.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2095, "goals": 0.1973, "goal_rate": 0.1973, "shots_on_target": 0.4799, "total_shots": 0.9814, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "key_pass": 0.3892, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 9.1314, "accurate_pass": 6.9978, "duels_won": 2.0794, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.674, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5403, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.1141, "possession_lost": 5.178, "dispossessed": 0.6977, "duels_lost": 2.6484, "aerial_lost": 1.109, "total_contest": 0.7221, "won_contest": 0.361, "ball_recovery": 2.1335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2619, "fouls_drawn": 0.6551, "assists": 0.3541, "assist_rate": 0.3541, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7474, "tackles": 1.0504, "clearances": 1.1114, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.361, "big_chances_missed": 0.4825, "xgot": 0.2518, "offsides": 0.2335, "ball_carries": 4.0062, "total_progression": 11.9191, "progressive_carries": 0.4825, "shots_off_target": 0.4936, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.78, "projection_minutes": 20.31, "minutes_scale": 1.1216, "appearance_probability": 0.544 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2095, "goals": 0.1973, "goal_rate": 0.1973, "shots_on_target": 0.4799, "total_shots": 0.9814, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "key_pass": 0.3892, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 9.1314, "accurate_pass": 6.9978, "duels_won": 2.0794, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.674, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5403, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.1141, "possession_lost": 5.178, "dispossessed": 0.6977, "duels_lost": 2.6484, "aerial_lost": 1.109, "total_contest": 0.7221, "won_contest": 0.361, "ball_recovery": 2.1335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2619, "fouls_drawn": 0.6551, "assists": 0.3541, "assist_rate": 0.3541, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7474, "tackles": 1.0504, "clearances": 1.1114, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.361, "big_chances_missed": 0.4825, "xgot": 0.2518, "offsides": 0.2335, "ball_carries": 4.0062, "total_progression": 11.9191, "progressive_carries": 0.4825, "shots_off_target": 0.4936, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.93 (squad xG sum 1.5037, xG scale 1.2862, xA scale 1.3318, team xA 1.26 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2695, "goal_rate": 0.1973, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4799, "total_shots": 0.9814, "expected_assists": 0.0502, "key_pass": 0.3892, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 9.1314, "accurate_pass": 6.9978, "duels_won": 2.0794, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.674, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5403, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.1141, "possession_lost": 5.178, "dispossessed": 0.6977, "duels_lost": 2.6484, "aerial_lost": 1.109, "total_contest": 0.7221, "won_contest": 0.361, "ball_recovery": 2.1335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2619, "fouls_drawn": 0.6551, "assist_rate": 0.3541, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7474, "tackles": 1.0504, "clearances": 1.1114, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.361, "big_chances_missed": 0.4825, "xgot": 0.3239, "offsides": 0.2335, "ball_carries": 4.0062, "total_progression": 11.9191, "progressive_carries": 0.4825, "shots_off_target": 0.4936, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.206, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.953, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.934, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5037, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9439, "team_expected_assists": 1.2571, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2862, "xa_scale": 1.3318, "opponent_lambda": 0.835, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.544 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2095, "after": 0.2695 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0377, "after": 0.0502 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2695, "goal_rate": 0.1973, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4799, "total_shots": 0.9814, "expected_assists": 0.0502, "key_pass": 0.3892, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 9.1314, "accurate_pass": 6.9978, "duels_won": 2.0794, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.674, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5403, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.1141, "possession_lost": 5.178, "dispossessed": 0.6977, "duels_lost": 2.6484, "aerial_lost": 1.109, "total_contest": 0.7221, "won_contest": 0.361, "ball_recovery": 2.1335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2619, "fouls_drawn": 0.6551, "assist_rate": 0.3541, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7474, "tackles": 1.0504, "clearances": 1.1114, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.361, "big_chances_missed": 0.4825, "xgot": 0.3239, "offsides": 0.2335, "ball_carries": 4.0062, "total_progression": 11.9191, "progressive_carries": 0.4825, "shots_off_target": 0.4936, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.206, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.953, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1404, "fifa_rank": 1074.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2695, "goal_rate": 0.1973, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4799, "total_shots": 0.9814, "expected_assists": 0.0502, "key_pass": 0.3892, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 9.1314, "accurate_pass": 6.9978, "duels_won": 2.0794, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.674, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5403, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.1141, "possession_lost": 5.178, "dispossessed": 0.6977, "duels_lost": 2.6484, "aerial_lost": 1.109, "total_contest": 0.7221, "won_contest": 0.361, "ball_recovery": 2.1335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2619, "fouls_drawn": 0.6551, "assist_rate": 0.3541, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7474, "tackles": 1.0504, "clearances": 1.1114, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.361, "big_chances_missed": 0.4825, "xgot": 0.3239, "offsides": 0.2335, "ball_carries": 4.0062, "total_progression": 11.9191, "progressive_carries": 0.4825, "shots_off_target": 0.4936, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.206, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1285, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.953, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1285, "scorer_weight": 0.1397, "squad_weight_total": 2.0478, "weight_share": 0.0682, "finishing_factor": 0.953, "appearance_weight": 0.544, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.5955, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5955, "runner_up": "Cucho Hernández", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4616 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2695, "goal_rate": 0.1973, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4799, "total_shots": 0.9814, "expected_assists": 0.0502, "key_pass": 0.3892, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 9.1314, "accurate_pass": 6.9978, "duels_won": 2.0794, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.674, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5403, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.1141, "possession_lost": 5.178, "dispossessed": 0.6977, "duels_lost": 2.6484, "aerial_lost": 1.109, "total_contest": 0.7221, "won_contest": 0.361, "ball_recovery": 2.1335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2619, "fouls_drawn": 0.6551, "assist_rate": 0.3541, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7474, "tackles": 1.0504, "clearances": 1.1114, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.361, "big_chances_missed": 0.4825, "xgot": 0.3239, "offsides": 0.2335, "ball_carries": 4.0062, "total_progression": 11.9191, "progressive_carries": 0.4825, "shots_off_target": 0.4936, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.544, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.206, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1285, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0266, "finishing_factor": 0.953, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0266, "provider_weight": 0.0341, "squad_weight_total": 1.1393, "weight_share": 0.03, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.544, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Isco", "weight": 0.1722, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1722, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1629, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] }, "Rodrigo Riquelme": { "player_id": 989113, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 174, "market_value": 4300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0837, "goal_rate": 0.0733, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6408, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.391688 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.192292 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.10633 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.086495 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.06894 } ], "others_margin": -0.119149 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.21372203528881073, "model_output": 0.2137, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.108 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0886 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1513 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0356 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0186 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0149, "total": 0.2137, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.126872, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.629076 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.187167 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.085709 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.057801 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.050428 } ], "others_margin": -0.067379 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.80253666639328, "model_output": 0.8025, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5103 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2443 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0488 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0407 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0246 } ], "others": -0.0356, "total": 0.8025, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.510294 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.244326 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.048762 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.040692 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.024581 } ], "others_margin": -0.035512 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.774750232696533, "model_output": 6.7748, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.103 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0397 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0071 } ], "others": 0.0023, "total": 6.7747, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.102973 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.039676 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020164 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012571 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.007117 } ], "others_margin": 0.002402 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0007, quality 0.520)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5554, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "assists": 0.0618, "assist_rate": 0.0618, "expected_goals": 0.0698, "goals": 0.0796, "goal_rate": 0.0796, "shots_on_target": 0.2139, "total_shots": 0.8031, "rating": 6.7748, "minutes": 17.97, "total_pass": 10.687, "accurate_pass": 8.6757, "duels_won": 2.736, "total_long_balls": 0.4081, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3851, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3855, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9293, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2902, "crosses_total": 0.1025, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.1135, "possession_lost": 3.3677, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.0387, "aerial_won": 1.2373, "aerial_lost": 0.5958, "interceptions": 0.0519, "tackles_won": 0.3382, "tackles": 0.3382, "clearances": 0.2985, 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"total_own_half_passes": 2.7576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3855, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9293, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2902, "crosses_total": 0.1015, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.1135, "possession_lost": 3.3677, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.0387, "aerial_won": 1.2373, "aerial_lost": 0.5958, "interceptions": 0.0528, "tackles_won": 0.3377, "tackles": 0.3382, "clearances": 0.2985, "total_contest": 1.1362, "won_contest": 0.8373, "challenges_lost": 0.152, "fouls": 0.5339, "fouls_drawn": 0.3214, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2126, "big_chances_missed": 0.1727, "xgot": 0.1135, "ball_carries": 5.6336, "total_progression": 30.1484, "progressive_carries": 0.8382, "shots_off_target": 0.5892 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0095, "history_matches": 27, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1997, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 19.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.616, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "assists": 0.0679, "assist_rate": 0.0679, "expected_goals": 0.0774, "goals": 0.0874, "goal_rate": 0.0874, "shots_on_target": 0.2365, "total_shots": 0.8914, "rating": 6.7748, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 11.8526, "accurate_pass": 9.622, "duels_won": 3.0344, "total_long_balls": 0.4526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4271, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0584, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6457, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7942, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9763, "crosses_total": 0.1126, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.871, "possession_lost": 3.735, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.2611, "aerial_won": 1.3723, "aerial_lost": 0.5958, "interceptions": 0.0586, "tackles_won": 0.3745, "tackles": 0.3751, "clearances": 0.3311, "total_contest": 1.2601, "won_contest": 0.9286, "challenges_lost": 0.152, "fouls": 0.5921, "fouls_drawn": 0.3565, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2358, "big_chances_missed": 0.1915, "xgot": 0.1259, "ball_carries": 6.2481, "total_progression": 33.4367, "progressive_carries": 0.9296, "shots_off_target": 0.6535, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.93, "projection_minutes": 17.97, "minutes_scale": 1.1091, "appearance_probability": 0.57 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.616, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "assists": 0.0679, "assist_rate": 0.0679, "expected_goals": 0.0774, "goals": 0.0874, "goal_rate": 0.0874, "shots_on_target": 0.2365, "total_shots": 0.8914, "rating": 6.7748, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 11.8526, "accurate_pass": 9.622, "duels_won": 3.0344, "total_long_balls": 0.4526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4271, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0584, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6457, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7942, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9763, "crosses_total": 0.1126, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.871, "possession_lost": 3.735, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.2611, "aerial_won": 1.3723, "aerial_lost": 0.5958, "interceptions": 0.0586, "tackles_won": 0.3745, "tackles": 0.3751, "clearances": 0.3311, "total_contest": 1.2601, "won_contest": 0.9286, "challenges_lost": 0.152, "fouls": 0.5921, "fouls_drawn": 0.3565, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2358, "big_chances_missed": 0.1915, "xgot": 0.1259, "ball_carries": 6.2481, "total_progression": 33.4367, "progressive_carries": 0.9296, "shots_off_target": 0.6535, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.93 (squad xG sum 1.5037, xG scale 1.2862, xA scale 1.3318, team xA 1.26 = 0.65 x lambda)", 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"ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3441, "fifa_rank": 2416.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.616, "expected_assists": 0.0526, "assist_rate": 0.0679, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0995, "goal_rate": 0.0874, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2365, "total_shots": 0.8914, "rating": 6.7748, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 11.8526, "accurate_pass": 9.622, "duels_won": 3.0344, "total_long_balls": 0.4526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4271, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0584, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6457, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7942, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9763, "crosses_total": 0.1126, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.871, "possession_lost": 3.735, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.2611, 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0.4271, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0584, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6457, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7942, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9763, "crosses_total": 0.1126, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.871, "possession_lost": 3.735, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.2611, "aerial_won": 1.3723, "aerial_lost": 0.5958, "interceptions": 0.0586, "tackles_won": 0.3745, "tackles": 0.3751, "clearances": 0.3311, "total_contest": 1.2601, "won_contest": 0.9286, "challenges_lost": 0.152, "fouls": 0.5921, "fouls_drawn": 0.3565, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2358, "big_chances_missed": 0.1915, "xgot": 0.1619, "ball_carries": 6.2481, "total_progression": 33.4367, "progressive_carries": 0.9296, "shots_off_target": 0.6535, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.206, 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"Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416315, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7686, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1404, "combined_rank_score": 580.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 87.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.52, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 1074.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6536, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Troy Parrott", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jerome Abbey", "ranking": 1399 }, { "player_name": "Rayan", "ranking": 1400 }, { "player_name": "Amir Rrahmani", "ranking": 1401 }, { "player_name": "Josep Chavarría", "ranking": 1402 }, { "player_name": "Abde", "ranking": 1403 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Anan Khalaili", "ranking": 1405 }, { "player_name": "Guillermo May", "ranking": 1406 }, { "player_name": "Pubill", "ranking": 1407 }, { "player_name": "Bozhidar Kraev", "ranking": 1408 }, { "player_name": "Aïssa Mandi", "ranking": 1409 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.508, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.508, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.544, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0258, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Betis", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 20.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0533 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (4 historical appearances) to 22.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.54); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 20.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1822, "goals": 0.1748, "goal_rate": 0.1748, "shots_on_target": 0.4253, "total_shots": 0.8543, "expected_assists": 0.0328, "key_pass": 0.3383, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 20.31, "total_pass": 7.9365, "accurate_pass": 6.0821, "duels_won": 1.8073, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6698, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8154, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7438, "possession_lost": 4.5005, "dispossessed": 0.6802, "duels_lost": 2.3018, "aerial_lost": 1.0811, "total_contest": 0.6276, "won_contest": 0.3138, "ball_recovery": 1.8544, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2267, "fouls_drawn": 0.5806, "assists": 0.3138, "assist_rate": 0.3138, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6462, "tackles": 0.9129, "clearances": 0.966, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3138, "big_chances_missed": 0.4194, "xgot": 0.2189, "offsides": 0.2267, "ball_carries": 3.482, "total_progression": 10.3594, "progressive_carries": 0.4194, "shots_off_target": 0.429 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-11T10:27:16.278802+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1337, "players": 604, "rows": 15537 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 22.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 57.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.3155, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 6.6698, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 4.8154, "accuratePass": 6.0821, "totalShots": 1.2267 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1821502447128296, "model_output": 0.1822, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.282 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0352 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0258 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0248 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1978, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0785 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0064 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.005 } 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"contribution": 0.0093 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0078 } ], "others": -0.0138, "total": 0.1748, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.593696, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.470664 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.212977 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.088358 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.052846 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.042335 } ], "others_margin": -0.075994 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.42528578639030457, "model_output": 0.4253, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2113 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0717 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5367, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1809 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0201 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0129 } ], "others": 0.0431, "total": 0.4253, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.622283, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.410955 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.054982 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.052359 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.034662 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.034315 } ], "others_margin": 0.106645 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8543252944946289, "model_output": 0.8543, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2764 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0561 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5235 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.084 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0242 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0237 } ], "others": 0.0655, "total": 0.8543, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.372807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.523497 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.084013 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.024229 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.023984 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.023677 } ], "others_margin": 0.065598 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.032776862382888794, "model_output": 0.0328, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1017 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0665 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0563 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0639, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0067 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0059, "total": 0.0328, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.751197, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.372965 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.141873 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.109439 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.086848 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.073247 } ], "others_margin": -0.166209 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.33830663561820984, "model_output": 0.3383, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0328 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2808 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0301 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0153 } ], "others": 0.0326, "total": 0.3383, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.540113 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07998 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.060353 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.059518 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.048688 } ], "others_margin": 0.101227 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.653594493865967, "model_output": 6.6536, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0588 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0104 } ], "others": -0.0554, "total": 6.6536, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.058843 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.015469 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011354 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.010471 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010399 } ], "others_margin": -0.055357 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0258, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1868, "goals": 0.1794, "goal_rate": 0.1794, "shots_on_target": 0.4363, "total_shots": 0.8764, "expected_assists": 0.0336, "key_pass": 0.347, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 20.31, "total_pass": 8.1413, "accurate_pass": 6.239, "duels_won": 1.8539, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8419, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9396, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.15, "possession_lost": 4.6166, "dispossessed": 0.6977, "duels_lost": 2.3612, "aerial_lost": 1.109, "total_contest": 0.6438, "won_contest": 0.3219, "ball_recovery": 1.9022, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2325, "fouls_drawn": 0.5956, "assists": 0.3219, "assist_rate": 0.3219, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6629, "tackles": 0.9365, "clearances": 0.9909, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3219, "big_chances_missed": 0.4302, "xgot": 0.2245, "offsides": 0.2325, "ball_carries": 3.5718, "total_progression": 10.6267, "progressive_carries": 0.4302, "shots_off_target": 0.4401 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0258, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0192)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1868, "goals": 0.1759, "goal_rate": 0.1759, "shots_on_target": 0.4279, "total_shots": 0.875, "expected_assists": 0.0336, "key_pass": 0.347, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 20.31, "total_pass": 8.1413, "accurate_pass": 6.239, "duels_won": 1.8539, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8419, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9396, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.15, "possession_lost": 4.6166, "dispossessed": 0.6977, "duels_lost": 2.3612, "aerial_lost": 1.109, "total_contest": 0.6438, "won_contest": 0.3219, "ball_recovery": 1.9022, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2335, "fouls_drawn": 0.5841, "assists": 0.3157, "assist_rate": 0.3157, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6664, "tackles": 0.9365, "clearances": 0.9909, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3219, "big_chances_missed": 0.4302, "xgot": 0.2245, "offsides": 0.2335, "ball_carries": 3.5718, "total_progression": 10.6267, "progressive_carries": 0.4302, "shots_off_target": 0.4401 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0192, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2257, "prior_reliability": 0.0533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.5956, "after": 0.5841 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4363, "after": 0.4279 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.3219, 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0.1973, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4799, "total_shots": 0.9814, "expected_assists": 0.0502, "key_pass": 0.3892, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 9.1314, "accurate_pass": 6.9978, "duels_won": 2.0794, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.674, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5403, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.1141, "possession_lost": 5.178, "dispossessed": 0.6977, "duels_lost": 2.6484, "aerial_lost": 1.109, "total_contest": 0.7221, "won_contest": 0.361, "ball_recovery": 2.1335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2619, "fouls_drawn": 0.6551, "assist_rate": 0.3541, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.7474, "tackles": 1.0504, "clearances": 1.1114, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.361, "big_chances_missed": 0.4825, "xgot": 0.3239, "offsides": 0.2335, "ball_carries": 4.0062, "total_progression": 11.9191, "progressive_carries": 0.4825, "shots_off_target": 0.4936, 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"model_output": 0.6327, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1612 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1495 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.087 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3784, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.4343 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1144 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1073 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0693 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.046 } ], "others": -0.2032, "total": 0.6327, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320928, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.378432 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114346 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.106875 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.075686 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.053555 } ], "others_margin": -0.27843 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.35097554326057434, "model_output": 0.351, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1256 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0491 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.032 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0314 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0537, "total": 0.351, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.125631 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049132 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.031965 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031368 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.008327 } ], "others_margin": -0.053769 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.61761474609375, "model_output": 6.6176, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0328 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0161 } ], "others": -0.064, "total": 6.6176, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.032842 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.442)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8381, "tackles": 1.8536, "tackles_won": 1.1113, "clearances": 2.184, "aerial_won": 0.6313, "total_shots": 0.3502, "rating": 6.6176, "minutes": 88.17, "total_pass": 26.8795, "accurate_pass": 21.0706, "duels_won": 3.675, "total_long_balls": 4.5805, "accurate_long_balls": 1.515, "total_own_half_passes": 12.4242, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5051, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5656, "crosses_total": 1.667, "crosses_accurate": 0.4251, "touches": 50.0856, "possession_lost": 12.4863, "dispossessed": 0.7003, "duels_lost": 4.743, "aerial_lost": 0.9152, "total_contest": 1.4804, "won_contest": 0.323, "ball_recovery": 3.9882, "challenges_lost": 0.8905, "fouls": 1.1598, "fouls_drawn": 0.6224, "blocks": 0.2196, "goals": 0.0127, 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0.6176, "blocks": 0.2196, "goals": 0.0125, "goal_rate": 0.0125, "assists": 0.0572, "assist_rate": 0.0572, "expected_goals": 0.0189, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "shots_on_target": 0.0354, "big_chances_created": 0.1392, "xgot": 0.0106, "ball_carries": 12.0486, "total_progression": 41.7526, "progressive_carries": 1.3383, "key_pass": 0.3118, "shots_off_target": 0.3142 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8404, "tackles": 1.8536, "tackles_won": 1.1251, "clearances": 2.184, "aerial_won": 0.6313, "total_shots": 0.3552, "rating": 6.6176, "minutes": 88.17, "total_pass": 26.8795, "accurate_pass": 21.0706, "duels_won": 3.675, "total_long_balls": 4.5805, "accurate_long_balls": 1.515, "total_own_half_passes": 12.4242, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.5051, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4555, 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"scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0102 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0097 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.009 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": 0.006, "total": 6.8371, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.024573 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.010191 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.009722 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.008972 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008412 } ], "others_margin": 0.006087 } } ], "prediction_basis": { 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0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0561 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0392 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0171 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0154 } ], "others": -0.0458, "total": 0.459, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056128 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.039173 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.017116 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.016926 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.015353 } ], "others_margin": -0.045807 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6195902824401855, "model_output": 6.6196, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0608 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0525 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0366 } ], "others": -0.0921, "total": 0.6106, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.259103 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121719 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.060806 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.052454 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.036553 } ], "others_margin": -0.092233 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.774992942810059, "model_output": 6.775, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0359 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0254 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0072 } ], "others": -0.0324, "total": 6.775, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.035922 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.025356 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013617 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011665 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.007188 } ], "others_margin": -0.032327 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 41, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.8825, "total_contest": 0.2412, "won_contest": 0.1903, "challenges_lost": 0.9432, "fouls": 1.1416, "fouls_drawn": 0.2771, "blocks": 0.079, "big_chances_created": 0.0587, "big_chances_missed": 0.0126, "xgot": 0.024, "ball_carries": 8.1479, "total_progression": 18.0276, "progressive_carries": 0.521, "shots_off_target": 0.426 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7300000, "quality_factor": 0.4903, "boost_factor": 0.9995, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0113)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7895, "expected_assists": 0.0797, "assists": 0.0674, "assist_rate": 0.0674, "expected_goals": 0.0381, "goals": 0.0452, "goal_rate": 0.0452, "shots_on_target": 0.1862, "total_shots": 0.6114, "rating": 6.775, "minutes": 80.85, "total_pass": 33.2211, "accurate_pass": 27.5101, "duels_won": 2.8453, "total_long_balls": 5.391, "accurate_long_balls": 2.512, "total_own_half_passes": 14.5693, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2198, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6517, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2904, "crosses_total": 2.9167, "crosses_accurate": 0.8269, "touches": 46.9692, "possession_lost": 10.1749, "dispossessed": 0.6106, "duels_lost": 3.7457, "aerial_won": 0.3487, "aerial_lost": 1.015, "interceptions": 0.9347, "tackles_won": 1.2652, "tackles": 2.03, "clearances": 0.8825, "total_contest": 0.2412, "won_contest": 0.1903, "challenges_lost": 0.9432, "fouls": 1.1409, "fouls_drawn": 0.274, "blocks": 0.079, "big_chances_created": 0.0587, "big_chances_missed": 0.0126, "xgot": 0.024, "ball_carries": 8.1479, "total_progression": 18.0276, "progressive_carries": 0.521, "shots_off_target": 0.426 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0113, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8983, "prior_reliability": 0.1667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.9377, 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"opponent_faced": "Isco", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Isco", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.449, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0723, "skill_edge": 0.0252, "height_edge": 0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.5057, "defender_skill": 0.4498, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Isco", "market_value": 3600000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.4498 } ], "xg_override": 0.0409 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3487, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6122, "after": 0.6565 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.426, "after": 0.4568 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1862, "after": 0.1997 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player 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"total_progression": 46.7715, "progressive_carries": 0.3887, "key_pass": 0.4104, "shots_off_target": 0.5121 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-11T10:25:50.810190+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1337, "players": 623, "rows": 20487 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1543, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1312, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1115, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0948, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0806, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0685, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0582, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-08", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0495, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0421, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0357, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 1.8631, "aerialWon": 0.9961, "totalClearance_p90": 3.3553, "totalTackle": 1.4852, "totalPass": 19.4446 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.7249366641044617, "model_output": 0.7249, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": 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"margin": -0.024876 } ], "others_margin": 0.125563 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.2552369832992554, "model_output": 1.2552, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2228 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0652 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0412 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8578, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1307 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0492 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0488 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0362 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0344 } ], "others": 0.1669, "total": 1.2552, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.153422, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.141828 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.048563 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.045916 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.032787 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.031107 } ], "others_margin": 0.14276 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.9796552658081055, "model_output": 2.9797, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2968 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0817 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0344 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0202 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4412, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.6366 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4006 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2856 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1777 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.1144 } ], "others": 0.1234, "total": 2.9797, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.235809, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.204566 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.133517 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.093329 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.062785 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.040875 } ], "others_margin": 0.042286 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.0293570756912231, "model_output": 1.0294, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1612 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1495 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.087 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3784, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2813 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1411 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.1188 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1084 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0878 } ], "others": -0.1314, "total": 1.0294, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320928, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.22828 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121009 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.091624 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.083262 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.072922 } ], "others_margin": -0.120162 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5121280550956726, "model_output": 0.5121, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0559 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0449 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0174 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0148 } ], "others": 0.0168, "total": 0.5121, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.055893 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.044883 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.020191 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.017364 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.014797 } ], "others_margin": 0.016828 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.62331485748291, "model_output": 6.6233, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0317 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0132 } ], "others": -0.058, "total": 6.6233, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.03174 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.023591 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020804 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015444 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.013229 } ], "others_margin": -0.057844 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9962, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7222, "tackles": 1.9849, "tackles_won": 1.2505, "clearances": 2.9683, "aerial_won": 1.0254, "total_shots": 0.5102, "rating": 6.6233, "minutes": 84.33, "total_pass": 38.8346, "accurate_pass": 30.4866, "duels_won": 5.0204, "total_long_balls": 6.2114, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2167, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9533, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8288, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8813, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6578, "crosses_total": 0.5985, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.7145, "possession_lost": 11.0403, "dispossessed": 0.4627, "duels_lost": 4.7466, "aerial_lost": 0.6737, "total_contest": 0.9939, "won_contest": 0.497, "ball_recovery": 3.5661, "challenges_lost": 0.4567, "fouls": 2.6567, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0168, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.462, "total_progression": 46.5938, "progressive_carries": 0.3872, "key_pass": 0.4088, "shots_off_target": 0.5102 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1000000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9962, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0080)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7239, "tackles": 1.9849, "tackles_won": 1.2405, "clearances": 2.9683, "aerial_won": 1.0254, "total_shots": 0.5061, "rating": 6.6233, "minutes": 84.33, "total_pass": 38.8346, "accurate_pass": 30.4866, "duels_won": 5.0204, "total_long_balls": 6.2114, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2167, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9533, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8288, 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"shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.462, "total_progression": 46.5938, "progressive_carries": 0.3872, "key_pass": 0.4088, "shots_off_target": 0.5102 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7239, "tackles": 1.9849, "tackles_won": 1.2405, "clearances": 2.9683, "aerial_won": 1.0254, "total_shots": 0.5102, "rating": 6.6233, "minutes": 84.33, "total_pass": 38.8346, "accurate_pass": 30.4866, "duels_won": 5.0204, "total_long_balls": 6.2114, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2167, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9533, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8288, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8813, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6578, "crosses_total": 0.5937, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.7145, "possession_lost": 11.0403, "dispossessed": 0.4627, "duels_lost": 4.7466, 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"contribution": -0.0537 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0494 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0227 } ], "others": -0.0485, "total": 0.5947, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.348226 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127184 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.053671 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.04944 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.02274 } ], "others_margin": -0.048382 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.974813461303711, "model_output": 6.9748, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0507 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.039 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0315 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0202, "total": 6.9748, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.050667 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.039044 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.031544 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.013933 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.00951 } ], "others_margin": -0.020239 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9971, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3254, "expected_assists": 0.1199, "assists": 0.0971, "assist_rate": 0.0971, "expected_goals": 0.0369, "goals": 0.0491, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "shots_on_target": 0.1377, "total_shots": 0.593, "rating": 6.9748, "minutes": 76.42, "total_pass": 42.1617, "accurate_pass": 35.8788, "duels_won": 4.297, "total_long_balls": 4.8516, "accurate_long_balls": 3.119, "total_own_half_passes": 15.9099, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0086, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.2517, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.8702, "crosses_total": 1.2456, "crosses_accurate": 0.4511, "touches": 54.3462, "possession_lost": 9.225, "dispossessed": 0.349, "duels_lost": 2.7051, "aerial_won": 0.5121, "aerial_lost": 0.3998, "interceptions": 0.9012, "tackles_won": 0.5483, "tackles": 1.4241, "clearances": 0.9442, "total_contest": 1.4944, "won_contest": 0.9218, "challenges_lost": 0.8308, "fouls": 0.6299, "fouls_drawn": 1.4391, "blocks": 0.1911, "big_chances_created": 0.3349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0035, "ball_carries": 14.3123, "total_progression": 46.3045, "progressive_carries": 1.1945, "shots_off_target": 0.4553 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9971, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0124)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3254, "expected_assists": 0.1199, "assists": 0.0959, "assist_rate": 0.0959, "expected_goals": 0.0369, "goals": 0.0485, "goal_rate": 0.0485, "shots_on_target": 0.136, "total_shots": 0.5857, "rating": 6.9748, "minutes": 76.42, "total_pass": 42.1617, "accurate_pass": 35.8788, "duels_won": 4.297, "total_long_balls": 4.8516, "accurate_long_balls": 3.119, 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0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0456 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0306 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0262 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0247 } ], "others": -0.0046, "total": 6.8603, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.045612 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.030617 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.026555 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.026171 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.02466 } ], "others_margin": -0.004623 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 40, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4033, "goals": 0.4557, "goal_rate": 0.4557, "shots_on_target": 1.015, "total_shots": 2.4523, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "key_pass": 0.5691, "rating": 6.8603, "minutes": 86.03, "total_pass": 11.431, "accurate_pass": 6.6594, "duels_won": 6.6242, "total_long_balls": 0.3579, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1696, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0534, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8085, "crosses_total": 0.143, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.4282, "possession_lost": 9.7402, "dispossessed": 0.8834, "duels_lost": 5.9681, "aerial_lost": 2.9013, "total_contest": 0.9063, "won_contest": 0.4284, "ball_recovery": 1.2637, "challenges_lost": 0.2604, "fouls": 1.7748, "fouls_drawn": 1.8436, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.074, "tackles_won": 0.5384, 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"fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0753, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sergio Herrera", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jardel", "ranking": 1576 }, { "player_name": "Kim Dong-wook", "ranking": 1577 }, { "player_name": "Viktor Đukanović", "ranking": 1578 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Hall", "ranking": 1579 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Ballard", "ranking": 1580 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Maximiliano Romero", "ranking": 1582 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Digne", "ranking": 1583 }, { "player_name": "Nico Elvedi", "ranking": 1584 }, { "player_name": "Augusto Batalla", "ranking": 1585 }, { "player_name": "Pavel Šulc", "ranking": 1586 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 42, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.131, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9978, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Osasuna", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (42 historical appearances) to 4.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.13); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.5782, "goals_prevented": -0.0492, "rating": 7.0753, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 24.4357, "accurate_pass": 17.2261, "total_long_balls": 13.4559, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4239, "touches": 33.2462, "clearances": 0.9724, "ball_recovery": 7.7986, "high_claims": 0.5837, "punches": 0.7406, "aerial_won": 0.159, "sweeper_actions": 0.7422, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6845, "saves_inside_box": 0.8303, "possession_lost": 7.3371, "duels_won": 0.6943, "duels_lost": 0.0226, "total_contest": 0.1276, "won_contest": 0.1276, "fouls": 0.1488, "fouls_drawn": 0.2575, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0755 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-11T10:25:02.791090+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1337, "players": 199, "rows": 6859 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-08", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-26", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.6671, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 13.0755, "accurateLongBalls": 6.4239, "aerialWon": 0.159, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.7869, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.4842 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.5782063007354736, "model_output": 2.5782, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "importance": 0.0361 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9355, "items": [ { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.1673 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1137 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0354 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": -0.0352 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0271 } ], "others": -0.0494, "total": 2.5782, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.07688, "item_margins": [ { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.058666 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.041954 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.013263 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": -0.013153 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.010254 } ], "others_margin": -0.019022 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.04916464909911156, "model_output": -0.0492, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0412 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0404 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0375 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0216, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0383 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": -0.0318 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.0166 } ], "others": 0.0234, "total": -0.0492, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.021558, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.038265 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": -0.031751 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.020693 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.020157 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": -0.01663 } ], "others_margin": 0.023358 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.075279712677002, "model_output": 7.0753, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.038 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0361 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0028, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0539 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0121 } ], "others": 0.0239, "total": 7.0753, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.00281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.053863 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.015922 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.014943 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.013443 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.01207 } ], "others_margin": 0.023959 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.5725, "goals_prevented": -0.0491, "rating": 7.0753, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 24.3819, "accurate_pass": 17.1882, "total_long_balls": 13.4263, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4098, "touches": 33.1731, "clearances": 0.9703, "ball_recovery": 7.7814, "high_claims": 0.5824, "punches": 0.739, "aerial_won": 0.1587, "sweeper_actions": 0.7406, "sweeper_accurate": 0.683, "saves_inside_box": 0.8285, "possession_lost": 7.321, "duels_won": 0.6928, "duels_lost": 0.0226, "total_contest": 0.1273, "won_contest": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.1485, "fouls_drawn": 0.2569, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1054, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0467 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0138)", "stats": { "saves": 2.5413, "goals_prevented": -0.0491, "rating": 7.0753, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 24.3819, "accurate_pass": 17.1882, "total_long_balls": 13.4263, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4098, "touches": 33.1731, "clearances": 0.9703, "ball_recovery": 7.7814, "high_claims": 0.5824, "punches": 0.739, "aerial_won": 0.1587, "sweeper_actions": 0.7406, "sweeper_accurate": 0.683, "saves_inside_box": 0.8285, "possession_lost": 7.321, "duels_won": 0.6928, "duels_lost": 0.0226, "total_contest": 0.1273, "won_contest": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.1479, "fouls_drawn": 0.2563, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1054, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0467 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0138, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3167, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.5725, "after": 2.5413 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.13)", "stats": { "saves": 0.3916, "goals_prevented": -0.0076, "rating": 7.0753, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.7576, "accurate_pass": 2.6489, "total_long_balls": 2.0692, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9878, "touches": 5.1124, "clearances": 0.1495, "ball_recovery": 1.1992, "high_claims": 0.0898, "punches": 0.1139, "aerial_won": 0.0245, "sweeper_actions": 0.1141, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1053, "saves_inside_box": 0.1277, "possession_lost": 1.1283, "duels_won": 0.1068, "duels_lost": 0.0035, "total_contest": 0.0196, "won_contest": 0.0196, "fouls": 0.0228, "fouls_drawn": 0.0395, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3279, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0107, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1541, "appearance_probability": 0.131 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.3916, "goals_prevented": -0.0076, "rating": 7.0753, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.7576, "accurate_pass": 2.6489, "total_long_balls": 2.0692, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9878, "touches": 5.1124, "clearances": 0.1495, "ball_recovery": 1.1992, "high_claims": 0.0898, "punches": 0.1139, "aerial_won": 0.0245, "sweeper_actions": 0.1141, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1053, "saves_inside_box": 0.1277, "possession_lost": 1.1283, "duels_won": 0.1068, "duels_lost": 0.0035, "total_contest": 0.0196, "won_contest": 0.0196, "fouls": 0.0228, "fouls_drawn": 0.0395, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3279, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0107, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.3916, "goals_prevented": -0.0076, "rating": 7.0753, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.7576, "accurate_pass": 2.6489, "total_long_balls": 2.0692, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9878, "touches": 5.1124, "clearances": 0.1495, "ball_recovery": 1.1992, "high_claims": 0.0898, "punches": 0.1139, "aerial_won": 0.0245, "sweeper_actions": 0.1141, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1053, "saves_inside_box": 0.1277, "possession_lost": 1.1283, "duels_won": 0.1068, "duels_lost": 0.0035, "total_contest": 0.0196, "won_contest": 0.0196, "fouls": 0.0228, "fouls_drawn": 0.0395, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3279, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0107, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.774, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.131, "projected_substitutes": 4, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "saves": 0.3916, "goals_prevented": -0.0076, "rating": 7.0753, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.7576, "accurate_pass": 2.6489, "total_long_balls": 2.0692, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9878, "touches": 5.1124, "clearances": 0.1495, "ball_recovery": 1.1992, "high_claims": 0.0898, "punches": 0.1139, "aerial_won": 0.0245, "sweeper_actions": 0.1141, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1053, "saves_inside_box": 0.1277, "possession_lost": 1.1283, "duels_won": 0.1068, "duels_lost": 0.0035, "total_contest": 0.0196, "won_contest": 0.0196, "fouls": 0.0228, "fouls_drawn": 0.0395, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3279, 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"market_value": 14600000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7513, "minutes": 35, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 48, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 36, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 68, "possession_lost": 6.7171, "dispossessed": 0.3444, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.009, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1177, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0411, "expected_assists": 0.0153, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0261, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 53, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.613, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.95, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.774, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0247, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0093, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416335, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 43, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 7, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 51, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083723, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083696, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2174, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 67, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083634, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 50, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083568, "match_date": "2026-05-08", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083495, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0183, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083231, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0638, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 75, "accurate_pass": 73, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083258, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1131, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 97, "accurate_pass": 88, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1828, "combined_rank_score": 705.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 966.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7513, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Enzo Boyomo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Benjamin André", "ranking": 1823 }, { "player_name": "Konstantinos Mavropanos", "ranking": 1824 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Tagliafico", "ranking": 1825 }, { "player_name": "Joaquín Soto", "ranking": 1826 }, { "player_name": "Jeon Seong-jin", "ranking": 1827 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Yasin Ayari", "ranking": 1829 }, { "player_name": "Fernando Ovelar", "ranking": 1830 }, { "player_name": "Diego Sanhueza", "ranking": 1831 }, { "player_name": "Aaron Astudillo", "ranking": 1832 }, { "player_name": "Valentin Rongier", "ranking": 1833 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.756, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 33, "data_confidence": 0.756, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 34.95, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.613, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0028, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Osasuna", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 52.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.04 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (33 historical appearances) to 35.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.61); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 52.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3433, "tackles": 0.6623, "tackles_won": 0.3639, "clearances": 1.8682, "aerial_won": 0.465, "total_shots": 0.1457, "rating": 6.7513, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 40.8349, "accurate_pass": 36.8779, "duels_won": 2.7436, "total_long_balls": 3.8855, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1444, "total_own_half_passes": 27.2533, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.211, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5817, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6669, "crosses_total": 0.1555, "crosses_accurate": 0.0034, "touches": 51.7024, "possession_lost": 5.1153, "dispossessed": 0.3434, "duels_lost": 2.9807, "aerial_lost": 1.2089, "total_contest": 0.2238, "won_contest": 0.1359, "ball_recovery": 3.2607, "challenges_lost": 0.1198, "fouls": 1.2457, "fouls_drawn": 0.1942, "blocks": 0.5002, "goals": 0.0069, "goal_rate": 0.0069, "assists": 0.0899, "assist_rate": 0.0899, "expected_goals": 0.0305, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "shots_on_target": 0.1457, "big_chances_created": 0.0124, "xgot": 0.0194, "ball_carries": 13.6417, "total_progression": 40.4063, "progressive_carries": 0.4492, "key_pass": 0.2949, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-11T10:25:50.810190+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1337, "players": 623, "rows": 20487 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": 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0.0483, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-26", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 4.5699, "aerialWon": 0.8142, "totalClearance_p90": 5.2285, "totalTackle": 1.5993, "totalPass": 40.8349 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3433154821395874, "model_output": 0.3433, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3015 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0387 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0279 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0248 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0238 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.859, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4784 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.035 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0094 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.008 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0071 } ], "others": -0.0126, "total": 0.3433, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.152032, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.81414 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.096461 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.026967 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.0223 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.019853 } ], "others_margin": -0.035887 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.6623123288154602, "model_output": 0.6623, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2671 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0423 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3957, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7262 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0323 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0206 } ], "others": -0.0457, "total": 0.6623, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.333417, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.734609 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.04947 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.038105 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.037764 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.029459 } ], "others_margin": -0.066684 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3638812005519867, "model_output": 0.3639, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2228 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0652 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0412 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8578, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4496 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0156 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0161, "total": 0.3639, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.153422, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.742723 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.042579 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.039166 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.037547 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.030706 } ], "others_margin": -0.043117 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.86820387840271, "model_output": 1.8682, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2968 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0817 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0344 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0202 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4412, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1133 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.262 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1185 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0955 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0863 } ], "others": -0.022, "total": 1.8682, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.235809, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.952236 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.180048 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.071874 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.054388 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.046727 } ], "others_margin": -0.011633 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.4649512469768524, "model_output": 0.465, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1612 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1495 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.087 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3784, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.863 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0973 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0367 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0398 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0163 } ], "others": -0.0459, "total": 0.465, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320928, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.983674 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.209112 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.084136 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.083903 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.032457 } ], "others_margin": -0.094461 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1457, "model_output": 0.1371, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2367 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0062 } ], "others": -0.0545, "total": 0.1371, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.236654 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017068 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.012705 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.007959 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.006207 } ], "others_margin": -0.054631 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.751265525817871, "model_output": 6.7513, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0088 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0104, "total": 6.7513, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01522 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.013752 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012453 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.008842 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.00837 } ], "others_margin": -0.01049 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9973, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3591, "tackles": 0.4906, "tackles_won": 0.2786, "clearances": 1.761, "aerial_won": 0.534, "total_shots": 0.1084, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 24.44, "total_pass": 10.8969, "accurate_pass": 9.0876, "duels_won": 1.6765, "total_long_balls": 1.1532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4986, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8589, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9867, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.038, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1009, "crosses_total": 0.0677, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.592, "possession_lost": 2.0485, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4025, "aerial_lost": 0.3254, "total_contest": 0.0937, "won_contest": 0.0937, "ball_recovery": 0.5827, "challenges_lost": 0.381, "fouls": 0.6961, "fouls_drawn": 0.2412, "blocks": 0.3449, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 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"duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083258, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1069, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3320, "combined_rank_score": 1277.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 1976.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7017, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Aimar Oroz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rio Ngumoha", "ranking": 3315 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Walker-Peters", "ranking": 3316 }, { "player_name": "Alberto Costa", "ranking": 3317 }, { "player_name": "Tajon Buchanan", "ranking": 3318 }, { "player_name": "Dion Drena Beljo", "ranking": 3319 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Konstantinos Koulierakis", "ranking": 3321 }, { "player_name": "Óliver Torres", "ranking": 3322 }, { "player_name": "Daley Blind", "ranking": 3323 }, { "player_name": "Williot Swedberg", "ranking": 3324 }, { "player_name": "Leandro Cabrera", "ranking": 3325 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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0.4601, "rating": 6.7017, "minutes": 19.67, "total_pass": 9.4978, "accurate_pass": 7.6098, "duels_won": 1.5178, "total_long_balls": 0.4066, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2326, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6763, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1397, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8215, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4701, "crosses_total": 0.2997, "crosses_accurate": 0.174, "touches": 13.7675, "possession_lost": 3.4213, "dispossessed": 0.6523, "duels_lost": 2.5555, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4148, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1479, "tackles": 0.2958, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2408, "won_contest": 0.2408, "challenges_lost": 0.7881, "fouls": 0.7003, "fouls_drawn": 0.9812, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1257, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7322, "total_progression": 18.6315, "progressive_carries": 0.6993, "shots_off_target": 0.2858 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-11T10:26:42.530573+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1337, "players": 894, "rows": 23497 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1506, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.128, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1088, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0925, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-08", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 44.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 20.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-26", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.5785, "creative_index": 0.4815, "expectedGoals": 0.0335, "expectedAssists": 0.0682, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0348 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5810336470603943, "model_output": 0.581, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1648 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1344 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0672 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0573 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0281 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8857, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3853 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0171 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.017 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0176 } ], "others": 0.0482, "total": 0.581, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.121432, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.570999 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.039297 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.034919 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.033633 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.03363 } ], "others_margin": 0.086599 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.05274725332856178, "model_output": 0.0527, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1094 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1055 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.099 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0603 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0557 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0855, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0353 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0028 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0024 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0019 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0027, "total": 0.0527, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.458929, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.531815 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.053592 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.043552 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.034943 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.034257 } ], "others_margin": -0.047958 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.06658171117305756, "model_output": 0.0666, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0515 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0436 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0436 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0319 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0209 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0068 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0068 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0034 } ], "others": -0.0109, "total": 0.0666, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456317, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.27986 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.099484 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.090669 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.05821 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.044902 } ], "others_margin": -0.149991 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.041954223066568375, "model_output": 0.042, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1335 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.086 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0433 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0936, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0395 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0065 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0024 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0013 } ], "others": 0.0011, "total": 0.042, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.368441, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.54747 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.128283 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.064968 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.054389 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.030209 } ], "others_margin": 0.022583 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.04320313781499863, "model_output": 0.0432, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0966, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0047 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0034 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0028 } ], "others": -0.0046, "total": 0.0432, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.337105, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.471711 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.150302 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.095226 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.068848 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.056251 } ], "others_margin": -0.100094 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.17423661053180695, "model_output": 0.1742, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.108 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0886 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1328 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0376 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0082 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0071 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.007 } ], "others": 0.0123, "total": 0.1742, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.126872, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.527108 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.218938 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.052221 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.042946 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.042044 } ], "others_margin": 0.072454 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4600808918476105, "model_output": 0.4601, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.361 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2223 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.028 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0238 } ], "others": 0.0806, "total": 0.4601, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.360969 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.222306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.027966 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.024553 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.023815 } ], "others_margin": 0.080603 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.701669692993164, "model_output": 6.7017, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0776 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0276 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0056 } ], "others": -0.004, "total": 6.7017, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.07761 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.027632 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025121 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.008766 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.005637 } ], "others_margin": -0.003921 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9992, quality 0.485)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5806, "expected_assists": 0.0527, "assists": 0.0665, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goals": 0.0432, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "shots_on_target": 0.1741, "total_shots": 0.4597, "rating": 6.7017, "minutes": 19.67, "total_pass": 9.4902, "accurate_pass": 7.6037, "duels_won": 1.5166, "total_long_balls": 0.4063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2324, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6742, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.138, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.816, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4657, "crosses_total": 0.2995, "crosses_accurate": 0.1739, "touches": 13.7565, "possession_lost": 3.4186, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 2.5535, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1478, "tackles": 0.2956, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2406, "won_contest": 0.2406, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.6997, "fouls_drawn": 0.9804, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1256, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7292, "total_progression": 18.6166, "progressive_carries": 0.6987, "shots_off_target": 0.2856 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6900000, "quality_factor": 0.4854, "boost_factor": 0.9992, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0094)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5806, "expected_assists": 0.0527, "assists": 0.0659, "assist_rate": 0.0659, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goals": 0.0428, "goal_rate": 0.0428, "shots_on_target": 0.1725, "total_shots": 0.4578, "rating": 6.7017, "minutes": 19.67, "total_pass": 9.4902, "accurate_pass": 7.6037, "duels_won": 1.5166, "total_long_balls": 0.4063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2324, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6742, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.138, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.816, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4657, "crosses_total": 0.3003, "crosses_accurate": 0.1739, "touches": 13.7565, "possession_lost": 3.4186, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 2.5535, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1464, "tackles": 0.2956, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2406, "won_contest": 0.2406, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.6955, "fouls_drawn": 0.9784, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1256, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7292, "total_progression": 18.6166, "progressive_carries": 0.6987, "shots_off_target": 0.2856 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0094, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2186, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.7 to 14.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.44)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4404, "expected_assists": 0.04, "assists": 0.05, "assist_rate": 0.05, "expected_goals": 0.0318, "goals": 0.0325, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "shots_on_target": 0.1308, "total_shots": 0.3475, "rating": 6.7017, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.2166, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.92, "projection_minutes": 19.67, "minutes_scale": 0.7585, "appearance_probability": 0.439 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4404, "expected_assists": 0.04, "assists": 0.05, "assist_rate": 0.05, "expected_goals": 0.0318, "goals": 0.0325, "goal_rate": 0.0325, "shots_on_target": 0.1308, "total_shots": 0.3475, "rating": 6.7017, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9945, quality 0.479)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0699, "goals": 0.048, "goal_rate": 0.048, "shots_on_target": 0.2285, "total_shots": 0.5556, "expected_assists": 0.028, "key_pass": 0.2039, "rating": 6.5842, "minutes": 18.69, "total_pass": 6.8808, "accurate_pass": 6.8808, "duels_won": 1.9083, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2682, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2682, "crosses_total": 1.4515, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2407, "possession_lost": 1.4515, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5375, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.457, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.457, "tackles": 0.457, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.989, "total_progression": 4.306, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3271 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6400000, "quality_factor": 0.4793, "boost_factor": 0.9945, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.7 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0952, "goals": 0.0654, "goal_rate": 0.0654, "shots_on_target": 0.3112, "total_shots": 0.7568, "expected_assists": 0.0381, "key_pass": 0.2777, "rating": 6.5842, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.46, "projection_minutes": 18.69, "minutes_scale": 1.3621, "appearance_probability": 0.566 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0952, "goals": 0.0654, "goal_rate": 0.0654, "shots_on_target": 0.3112, "total_shots": 0.7568, "expected_assists": 0.0381, "key_pass": 0.2777, "rating": 6.5842, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.83 (squad xG sum 0.8154, xG scale 1.0240, xA scale 1.0541, team xA 0.54 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0975, "goal_rate": 0.0654, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3112, "total_shots": 0.7568, "expected_assists": 0.0402, "key_pass": 0.2777, "rating": 6.5842, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.774, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.835, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8154, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5149, "team_expected_assists": 0.5427, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.024, "xa_scale": 1.0541, "opponent_lambda": 1.934, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.566 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0975, "goal_rate": 0.0654, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3112, "total_shots": 0.7568, "expected_assists": 0.0402, "key_pass": 0.2777, "rating": 6.5842, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.774, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3024, "fifa_rank": 1827.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0975, "goal_rate": 0.0654, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3112, "total_shots": 0.7568, "expected_assists": 0.0402, "key_pass": 0.2777, "rating": 6.5842, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, 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"eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0975, "goal_rate": 0.0654, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3112, "total_shots": 0.7568, "expected_assists": 0.0402, "key_pass": 0.2777, "rating": 6.5842, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 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"F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 180, "market_value": 4300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0667, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6186, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 4.7106, "dispossessed": 0.6261, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.1173, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 1, 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"season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4988, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 11, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16815992, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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}, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.34366077184677124, "model_output": 0.3437, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0328 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2619 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0167 } ], "others": -0.0205, "total": 0.3437, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.493058 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.058017 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.057725 }, { "name": 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"totalClearance", "importance": 0.087 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3784, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.863 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0973 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0367 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0398 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0163 } ], "others": -0.0459, "total": 0.465, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320928, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.983674 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.209112 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.084136 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.083903 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.032457 } ], "others_margin": -0.094461 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1457, "model_output": 0.1371, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2367 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0062 } ], "others": -0.0545, "total": 0.1371, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.236654 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017068 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.012705 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.007959 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.006207 } ], "others_margin": -0.054631 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.751265525817871, "model_output": 6.7513, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0088 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0104, "total": 6.7513, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01522 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.013752 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012453 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.008842 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.00837 } ], "others_margin": -0.01049 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0028, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3443, "tackles": 0.6642, "tackles_won": 0.3649, "clearances": 1.8734, "aerial_won": 0.4663, "total_shots": 0.1461, "rating": 6.7513, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 40.9492, "accurate_pass": 36.9812, "duels_won": 2.7513, "total_long_balls": 3.8964, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1504, "total_own_half_passes": 27.3296, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.2844, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.6197, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6968, "crosses_total": 0.1559, "crosses_accurate": 0.0034, "touches": 51.8472, "possession_lost": 5.1296, "dispossessed": 0.3444, "duels_lost": 2.989, "aerial_lost": 1.2123, "total_contest": 0.2244, "won_contest": 0.1363, "ball_recovery": 3.2698, "challenges_lost": 0.1201, "fouls": 1.2492, "fouls_drawn": 0.1947, "blocks": 0.5016, "goals": 0.0069, "goal_rate": 0.0069, "assists": 0.0902, "assist_rate": 0.0902, "expected_goals": 0.0306, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "shots_on_target": 0.1461, "big_chances_created": 0.0124, "xgot": 0.0195, "ball_carries": 13.6799, "total_progression": 40.5194, "progressive_carries": 0.4505, "key_pass": 0.2957, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14600000, "quality_factor": 0.5748, "boost_factor": 1.0028, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0034)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3431, "tackles": 0.6642, "tackles_won": 0.367, "clearances": 1.8734, "aerial_won": 0.4663, "total_shots": 0.1456, "rating": 6.7513, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 40.9492, "accurate_pass": 36.9812, "duels_won": 2.7513, "total_long_balls": 3.8964, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1504, "total_own_half_passes": 27.3296, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.2844, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.6197, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6968, "crosses_total": 0.1554, "crosses_accurate": 0.0034, "touches": 51.8472, "possession_lost": 5.1296, "dispossessed": 0.3444, "duels_lost": 2.989, "aerial_lost": 1.2123, "total_contest": 0.2244, "won_contest": 0.1363, "ball_recovery": 3.2698, "challenges_lost": 0.1201, "fouls": 1.2483, "fouls_drawn": 0.1957, "blocks": 0.5016, "goals": 0.0069, "goal_rate": 0.0069, "assists": 0.0899, "assist_rate": 0.0899, "expected_goals": 0.0306, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "shots_on_target": 0.1456, "big_chances_created": 0.0124, "xgot": 0.0195, "ball_carries": 13.6799, "total_progression": 40.5194, "progressive_carries": 0.4505, "key_pass": 0.2957, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0034, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2966, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench 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"shots_on_target": 0.1907, "big_chances_created": 0.0162, "xgot": 0.0255, "ball_carries": 17.9135, "total_progression": 53.0593, "progressive_carries": 0.5899, "key_pass": 0.3872, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.613, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.95 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 34.95, "projection_minutes": 26.69, "minutes_scale": 1.3095, "appearance_probability": 0.613 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4493, "tackles": 0.8698, "tackles_won": 0.4806, "clearances": 2.4532, "aerial_won": 0.6106, "total_shots": 0.1907, "rating": 6.7513, "minutes": 34.95, "total_pass": 53.6221, "accurate_pass": 48.4261, "duels_won": 3.6028, "total_long_balls": 5.1023, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8159, "total_own_half_passes": 35.7875, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.4189, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8347, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0072, "crosses_total": 0.2035, 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"name": "rating", "margin": -0.058017 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.057725 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.051888 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.046845 } ], "others_margin": -0.057882 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.618565559387207, "model_output": 6.6186, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0513 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0608, "total": 6.6186, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.051318 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023625 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.012662 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.012227 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.008816 } ], "others_margin": -0.060847 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9936, quality 0.454)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0611, "goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0527, "shots_on_target": 0.2619, "total_shots": 0.4968, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "key_pass": 0.3415, "rating": 6.6186, "minutes": 25.17, "total_pass": 13.3177, "accurate_pass": 10.6684, "duels_won": 0.9097, "total_long_balls": 1.217, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7233, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.893, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7662, "crosses_total": 0.4213, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.6533, "possession_lost": 4.4224, "dispossessed": 0.6261, "duels_lost": 2.4639, "aerial_lost": 0.3291, "total_contest": 0.2277, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5007, "challenges_lost": 0.6551, "fouls": 0.6261, "fouls_drawn": 0.1645, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1399, "tackles_won": 0.1936, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9945, quality 0.479)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0699, "goals": 0.048, "goal_rate": 0.048, "shots_on_target": 0.2285, "total_shots": 0.5556, "expected_assists": 0.028, "key_pass": 0.2039, "rating": 6.5842, "minutes": 18.69, "total_pass": 6.8808, "accurate_pass": 6.8808, "duels_won": 1.9083, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2682, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2682, "crosses_total": 1.4515, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2407, "possession_lost": 1.4515, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5375, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.457, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.457, "tackles": 0.457, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.989, "total_progression": 4.306, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3271 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6400000, "quality_factor": 0.4793, "boost_factor": 0.9945, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.7 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0952, "goals": 0.0654, "goal_rate": 0.0654, "shots_on_target": 0.3112, "total_shots": 0.7568, "expected_assists": 0.0381, "key_pass": 0.2777, "rating": 6.5842, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.46, "projection_minutes": 18.69, "minutes_scale": 1.3621, "appearance_probability": 0.566 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0952, "goals": 0.0654, "goal_rate": 0.0654, "shots_on_target": 0.3112, "total_shots": 0.7568, "expected_assists": 0.0381, "key_pass": 0.2777, "rating": 6.5842, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.83 (squad xG sum 0.8154, xG scale 1.0240, xA scale 1.0541, team xA 0.54 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0975, "goal_rate": 0.0654, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3112, "total_shots": 0.7568, "expected_assists": 0.0402, "key_pass": 0.2777, "rating": 6.5842, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.774, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.835, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8154, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5149, "team_expected_assists": 0.5427, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.024, "xa_scale": 1.0541, "opponent_lambda": 1.934, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.566 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0975, "goal_rate": 0.0654, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3112, "total_shots": 0.7568, "expected_assists": 0.0402, "key_pass": 0.2777, "rating": 6.5842, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.774, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3024, "fifa_rank": 1827.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0975, "goal_rate": 0.0654, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3112, "total_shots": 0.7568, "expected_assists": 0.0402, "key_pass": 0.2777, "rating": 6.5842, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, 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"eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0975, "goal_rate": 0.0654, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3112, "total_shots": 0.7568, "expected_assists": 0.0402, "key_pass": 0.2777, "rating": 6.5842, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416335, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416296, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083723, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083634, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0836, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083568, "match_date": "2026-05-08", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083495, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0249, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3360, "combined_rank_score": 1309.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 665.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7281, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 1953.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6838, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lucas Torró", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Soufiane Rahimi", "ranking": 3355 }, { "player_name": "Héctor Bellerín", "ranking": 3356 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Perri", "ranking": 3357 }, { "player_name": "Billy Gilmour", "ranking": 3358 }, { "player_name": "Bernardo", "ranking": 3359 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kyle Walker", "ranking": 3361 }, { "player_name": "Nikola Moro", "ranking": 3362 }, { "player_name": "Ayden Heaven", "ranking": 3363 }, { "player_name": "Aron Dønnum", "ranking": 3364 }, { "player_name": "Iñaki Peña", "ranking": 3365 } ] } }, 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-0.0101 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0035 } ], "others": -0.0228, "total": 0.122, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.126872, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.662401 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.062041 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.02949 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.026338 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.024193 } ], "others_margin": -0.172598 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.401823490858078, "model_output": 0.4018, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3922 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.052 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.037 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0326 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0198 } ], "others": -0.0546, "total": 0.4018, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.392207 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.05199 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.036985 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.032641 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.019812 } ], "others_margin": -0.054522 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.683804988861084, "model_output": 6.6838, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0737 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0308 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.024 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0059 } ], "others": -0.0258, "total": 6.6838, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.073698 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.030792 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.023992 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.006378 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.005899 } ], "others_margin": -0.025792 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2468, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "assists": 0.0298, "assist_rate": 0.0298, "expected_goals": 0.0404, "goals": 0.039, "goal_rate": 0.039, "shots_on_target": 0.1217, "total_shots": 0.4009, "rating": 6.6838, "minutes": 15.91, "total_pass": 7.2695, "accurate_pass": 6.1521, "duels_won": 0.8872, "total_long_balls": 0.2042, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.7132, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.509, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6431, "crosses_total": 0.2402, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9441, "possession_lost": 1.8022, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.1275, "aerial_won": 0.4427, "aerial_lost": 0.3878, "interceptions": 0.2402, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2042, "clearances": 0.4687, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2042, "fouls": 0.5354, "fouls_drawn": 0.2402, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6058, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2792 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9977, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0064)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2468, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "assists": 0.0296, "assist_rate": 0.0296, "expected_goals": 0.0404, "goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.1209, "total_shots": 0.3992, "rating": 6.6838, "minutes": 15.91, "total_pass": 7.2695, "accurate_pass": 6.1521, "duels_won": 0.8872, "total_long_balls": 0.2042, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.7132, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.509, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6431, "crosses_total": 0.2387, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9441, "possession_lost": 1.8022, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.1275, "aerial_won": 0.4427, "aerial_lost": 0.3878, "interceptions": 0.2387, "tackles_won": 0.0017, "tackles": 0.2042, "clearances": 0.4687, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2042, "fouls": 0.5328, "fouls_drawn": 0.2387, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6058, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2792 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0064, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1768, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.9 to 18.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2814, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "assists": 0.0337, "assist_rate": 0.0337, "expected_goals": 0.0461, "goals": 0.0442, "goal_rate": 0.0442, "shots_on_target": 0.1378, "total_shots": 0.4562, "rating": 6.6838, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 8.2884, "accurate_pass": 7.0144, "duels_won": 1.0116, "total_long_balls": 0.2328, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0008, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0548, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0136, "crosses_total": 0.2722, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.3379, "possession_lost": 2.0548, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2855, "aerial_won": 0.5048, "aerial_lost": 0.3878, "interceptions": 0.2722, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.2328, "clearances": 0.5344, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2042, "fouls": 0.6075, "fouls_drawn": 0.2722, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.971, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3183, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.14, "projection_minutes": 15.91, "minutes_scale": 1.1402, "appearance_probability": 0.564 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2814, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "assists": 0.0337, "assist_rate": 0.0337, "expected_goals": 0.0461, "goals": 0.0442, "goal_rate": 0.0442, "shots_on_target": 0.1378, "total_shots": 0.4562, "rating": 6.6838, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 8.2884, "accurate_pass": 7.0144, "duels_won": 1.0116, "total_long_balls": 0.2328, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0008, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0548, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0136, "crosses_total": 0.2722, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.3379, "possession_lost": 2.0548, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2855, "aerial_won": 0.5048, "aerial_lost": 0.3878, "interceptions": 0.2722, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.2328, "clearances": 0.5344, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2042, "fouls": 0.6075, "fouls_drawn": 0.2722, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.971, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3183, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.83 (squad xG sum 0.8154, xG scale 1.0240, xA scale 1.0541, team xA 0.54 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2814, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "assist_rate": 0.0337, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0472, "goal_rate": 0.0442, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1378, "total_shots": 0.4562, "rating": 6.6838, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 8.2884, "accurate_pass": 7.0144, "duels_won": 1.0116, "total_long_balls": 0.2328, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0008, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0548, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0136, "crosses_total": 0.2722, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.3379, "possession_lost": 2.0548, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2855, "aerial_won": 0.5048, "aerial_lost": 0.3878, "interceptions": 0.2722, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.2328, "clearances": 0.5344, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2042, "fouls": 0.6075, "fouls_drawn": 0.2722, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.971, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3183, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.774, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9802, "creation_factor": 1.1235 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.835, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8154, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5149, "team_expected_assists": 0.5427, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.024, "xa_scale": 1.0541, "opponent_lambda": 1.934, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.564 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2814, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "assist_rate": 0.0337, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0472, "goal_rate": 0.0442, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1378, "total_shots": 0.4562, "rating": 6.6838, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 8.2884, "accurate_pass": 7.0144, "duels_won": 1.0116, "total_long_balls": 0.2328, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0008, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0548, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0136, "crosses_total": 0.2722, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.3379, "possession_lost": 2.0548, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2855, "aerial_won": 0.5048, "aerial_lost": 0.3878, "interceptions": 0.2722, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.2328, "clearances": 0.5344, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2042, "fouls": 0.6075, "fouls_drawn": 0.2722, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.971, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3183, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.774, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9802, "creation_factor": 1.1235, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3360, "fifa_rank": 1953.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2814, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "assist_rate": 0.0337, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0472, "goal_rate": 0.0442, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1378, "total_shots": 0.4562, "rating": 6.6838, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 8.2884, "accurate_pass": 7.0144, "duels_won": 1.0116, "total_long_balls": 0.2328, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0008, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0548, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0136, "crosses_total": 0.2722, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.3379, "possession_lost": 2.0548, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2855, "aerial_won": 0.5048, "aerial_lost": 0.3878, "interceptions": 0.2722, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.2328, "clearances": 0.5344, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2042, "fouls": 0.6075, "fouls_drawn": 0.2722, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.971, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3183, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.774, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.026, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9802, "creation_factor": 1.1235, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.026, "scorer_weight": 0.0261, "squad_weight_total": 0.8684, "weight_share": 0.03, "finishing_factor": 0.9802, "appearance_weight": 0.564, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2814, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "assist_rate": 0.0337, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0472, "goal_rate": 0.0442, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1378, "total_shots": 0.4562, "rating": 6.6838, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 8.2884, "accurate_pass": 7.0144, "duels_won": 1.0116, "total_long_balls": 0.2328, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0008, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0548, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0136, "crosses_total": 0.2722, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.3379, "possession_lost": 2.0548, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2855, "aerial_won": 0.5048, "aerial_lost": 0.3878, "interceptions": 0.2722, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.2328, "clearances": 0.5344, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2042, "fouls": 0.6075, "fouls_drawn": 0.2722, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.971, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3183, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.774, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.026, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0144, "finishing_factor": 0.9802, "creation_factor": 1.1235, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0144, "provider_weight": 0.0163, "squad_weight_total": 0.4935, "weight_share": 0.0331, "creation_factor": 1.1235, "appearance_weight": 0.564, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.83, "expected_assists": 0.54, "total_shots": 9, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 436, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.79, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Asier Osambela" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.605, "xg_contribution": 0.3704, "xg_multiplier": 1.1841, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Asier Osambela", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.395 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli (LW) is slightly favored against Asier Osambela in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 61%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €1M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.18 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.370 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Antony", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Unai Santos" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.595, "xg_contribution": 0.258, "xg_multiplier": 1.1691, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Unai Santos", "role": "LB", "market_value": 105000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.405 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antony (RW) is slightly favored against Unai Santos in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€37M vs €0M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.17 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.258 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Cucho Hernández", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 16500000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.595, "defenders": [ "Abel Bretones", "Alejandro Catena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.44, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.205, "xg_contribution": 0.3232, "xg_multiplier": 1.0075, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Abel Bretones", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.795 }, { "player": "Alejandro Catena", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.795 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cucho Hernández (ST) is evenly matched against Abel Bretones and Alejandro Catena in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.323 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Marc Roca", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 4200000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.452, "defenders": [ "Iker Muñoz" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.451, "xg_contribution": 0.0398, "xg_multiplier": 1.0453, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iker Muñoz", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.549 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marc Roca (CDM) is evenly matched against Iker Muñoz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.040 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Isco", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3600000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.445, "defenders": [ "Iker Muñoz" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.444, "xg_contribution": 0.1221, "xg_multiplier": 0.9906, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iker Muñoz", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.556 } ], "duel_analysis": "Isco (CM) is evenly matched against Iker Muñoz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.122 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Fornals", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 8400000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.503, "defenders": [ "Iker Muñoz" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.481, "xg_contribution": 0.0805, "xg_multiplier": 1.0452, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iker Muñoz", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.519 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Fornals (CM) is evenly matched against Iker Muñoz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.080 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Moi Gómez", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 1600000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Héctor Bellerín" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.461, "xg_contribution": 0.0359, "xg_multiplier": 0.9718, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Héctor Bellerín", "role": "RB", "market_value": 2500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.539 } ], "duel_analysis": "Moi Gómez (LW) is evenly matched against Héctor Bellerín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.036 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ante Budimir", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Natan", "Diego Llorente" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.562, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3692, "xg_multiplier": 0.9153, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Natan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Diego Llorente", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ante Budimir (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Natan and Diego Llorente in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.369 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Rubén García", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Natan", "Diego Llorente" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.562, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1039, "xg_multiplier": 0.8066, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Natan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Diego Llorente", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rubén García (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Natan and Diego Llorente in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.81 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.104 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Iker Muñoz", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1800000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Isco" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.445, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.406, "xg_contribution": 0.035, "xg_multiplier": 1.0094, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Isco", "role": "CM", "market_value": 3600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.594 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iker Muñoz (CDM) is evenly matched against Isco in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jon Moncayola", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Isco" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.445, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.449, "xg_contribution": 0.0409, "xg_multiplier": 1.0723, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Isco", "role": "CM", "market_value": 3600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.551 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Moncayola (CDM) is slightly favored against Isco in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.041 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.467, "away_midfield_power": 0.455, "home_creative_power": 0.492, "away_creative_power": 0.387, "home_defensive_power": 0.384, "away_defensive_power": 0.387, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.506, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Isco", "Marc Roca", "Pablo Fornals" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Iker Muñoz", "Jon Moncayola", "Moi Gómez" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "home_throughball_threat": 2.1, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Pablo Fornals vs Jon Moncayola", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.01, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.999 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.934, "away_lambda": 0.835, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli": { "opponents": [ "Asier Osambela" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Antony": { "opponents": [ "Unai Santos" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Cucho Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Abel Bretones", "Alejandro Catena" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Marc Roca": { "opponents": [ "Iker Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Isco": { "opponents": [ "Iker Muñoz", "Jon Moncayola" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo Fornals": { "opponents": [ "Iker Muñoz", "Moi Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Héctor Bellerín": { "opponents": [ "Moi Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Natan": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir", "Rubén García" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Diego Llorente": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir", "Rubén García" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Álvaro Valles": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir", "Rubén García" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Fran García": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Asier Osambela": { "opponents": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Unai Santos": { "opponents": [ "Antony" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Abel Bretones": { "opponents": [ "Cucho Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alejandro Catena": { "opponents": [ "Cucho Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Iker Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Marc Roca", "Isco", "Pablo Fornals" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Moi Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Héctor Bellerín", "Pablo Fornals" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ante Budimir": { "opponents": [ "Natan", "Diego Llorente" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Rubén García": { "opponents": [ "Natan", "Diego Llorente" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jon Moncayola": { "opponents": [ "Isco" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Aitor Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "Antony" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Iñigo Arguibide": { "opponents": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Pablo Fornals vs Jon Moncayola will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.19, Away: 0.58. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.993, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0495, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.154, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9959, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9861, "home_midfield_factor": 1.01, "away_midfield_factor": 0.999, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5602, "away_avg_quality": 0.4432, "avg_quality_gap": 0.117, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.5814, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.623, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.5909, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3284, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1806, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1051, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.194, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.233 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.01, "result": 1.2453 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.03, "result": 1.2827 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.4751 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0198, "result": 1.5043 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.5203 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9959, "result": 1.5141 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0495, "result": 1.5636 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.5636, "result": 1.5636, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3284, "factor": 1.1806, "pre": 1.5636, "result": 1.8461 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.8461 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.2174, "result": 2.0634 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.9877, "result": 1.8181 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.8181, "result": 1.818, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0286, "pre": 1.818, "result": 1.87, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.0871, "pre": 1.87, "result": 2.033 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 2.033 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9512, "input_total": 2.769, "result": 1.9338 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.9338, "result": 1.934, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.934 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.5849, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.7762 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.999, "result": 0.7754 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.99, "result": 0.7676 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7676 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.882, "result": 0.6771 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.993, "result": 0.6723 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9861, "result": 0.663 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.154, "result": 0.817 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.817, "result": 0.817, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3284, "factor": 0.8949, "pre": 0.817, "result": 0.7311 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7311 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1762, "result": 0.9072 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.9852, "result": 0.925 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.925, "result": 0.925, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9714, "pre": 0.925, "result": 0.8985, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9772, "pre": 0.8985, "result": 0.878 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 0.878 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9512, "input_total": 2.769, "result": 0.8352 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 0.8352, "result": 0.835, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 0.835 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.2174, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1762, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Real Betis", "away_squad": "Osasuna", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.988, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.985, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.3284, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0871, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9772, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.87, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.8985, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 2.033, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.878, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.8181, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.925, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.934, "final_away_lambda": 0.835 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 4, "opponent_position": 14, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0198, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.033, "form_multiplier": 1.033, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.55, "team_ppg": 1.87, "opponent_ppg": 1.25 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 14, "opponent_position": 4, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.882, "attack_index": 0.8, "defense_concede_index": 0.926, "form_multiplier": 0.967, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.2, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.39, "team_ppg": 1.25, "opponent_ppg": 1.87 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Real Betis vs Osasuna. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.818, Away 0.925). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.934, Away 0.835 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Real Betis", "away_squad": "Osasuna", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.988, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.985, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.934, "away_lambda": 0.835, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.818, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.925 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-11T13:31:38Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }