{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Racing Club", "away_team": "Valencia", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261011", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1074, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Racing Club", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2648, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1074 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.126 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0888 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0867 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0774 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0774, "0-1": 0.0867, "0-2": 0.0505, "0-3": 0.0194, "0-4": 0.0056, "0-5": 0.0013, "1-0": 0.1074, "1-1": 0.126, "1-2": 0.0719, "1-3": 0.0276, "1-4": 0.0079, "1-5": 0.0018, "2-0": 0.0771, "2-1": 0.0888, "2-2": 0.0511, "2-3": 0.0196, "2-4": 0.0056, "2-5": 0.0013, "3-0": 0.0366, "3-1": 0.0421, "3-2": 0.0242, "3-3": 0.0093, "3-4": 0.0027, "3-5": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.013, "4-1": 0.015, "4-2": 0.0086, "4-3": 0.0033, "4-4": 0.001, "5-0": 0.0037, "5-1": 0.0043, "5-2": 0.0024, "5-3": 0.0009, "6-0": 0.0009, "6-1": 0.001, "6-2": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4312, "draw": 0.2648, "away_win": 0.304 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4748, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5252, "btts_yes": 0.5199, "btts_no": 0.4801, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3163, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2412 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.76, "MCR": 6.86, "ATR": 6.93, "GK": 6.76 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.75, "MCR": 6.87, "ATR": 6.64, "GK": 6.91 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Racing Club vs Valencia. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Racing Club 1W-4D-5L vs Valencia over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Yassir Zabiri", "tactical_analysis": "4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Midfield is evenly contested — Matteo Prati vs Javier Guerra will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.79, Away: 0.69. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 1.422, "away_lambda": 1.151, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 1, "away_wins": 5, "draws": 4, "home_multiplier": 0.9714, "away_multiplier": 1.0286 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.126, "headline_policy": "decisive_score_substitution" }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4312, "draw": 0.2648, "away_win": 0.304 }, "favorite": "Racing Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4312, "fair_spread": 0.271, "fair_total": 2.573, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Racing Club", "estimate": 1.422, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Valencia", "estimate": 1.151, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4748, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5199, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Racing Club", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3163, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Valencia", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2412, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Yassir Zabiri (Racing Club)", "estimate": 0.5152, "probability": 0.4026, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Hugo Duro (Valencia)", "estimate": 0.3512, "probability": 0.2962, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jorge Salinas (Racing Club)", "estimate": 0.2326, "probability": 0.2075, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Javier Guerra (Valencia)", "estimate": 0.1433, "probability": 0.1335, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.573, "expected_total_shots": 22, "expected_total_passes": 882, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.8, "possession_home_pct": 48.5, "possession_away_pct": 51.5, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Racing Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4312, "script": "Racing Club is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.27 goals and fair total 2.57.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 11 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Valencia must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Racing Club lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Racing Club chance creation leans on Yassir Zabiri against Mouctar Diakhaby, Justin De Haas in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Racing Club: starters carry the main goal usage through Yassir Zabiri; bench watchlist: Andrés Martín, Giorgi Guliashvili.", "Valencia: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Harvey Elliott, Diego López, Largie Ramazani.", "Assist usage should flow through Iñigo Vicente; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Racing Club tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 11 total first-half shots, and 1.29 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Valencia is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Racing Club.", "Valencia wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Racing Club": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Yassir Zabiri": { "player_id": 1606013, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 182, "market_value": 9800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5152, "goal_rate": 0.5868, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0598, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.0036, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 24, "possession_lost": 7.7289, "dispossessed": 1.1364, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.8748, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9667, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Mouctar Diakhaby, Justin De Haas", "opponent_faced": "Mouctar Diakhaby, Justin De Haas", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4026, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.058, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 66.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416344, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0304, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2463, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 8.6, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.5057, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416321, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0316, "expected_assists": 0.0372, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416304, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 3.0, "goals": 3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7095, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416300, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 6997, "combined_rank_score": 5331.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 112.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.4333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 10550.0, "fifa_overall": 66.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0036, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yassir Zabiri", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Carlos Garcés", "ranking": 6992 }, { "player_name": "Joel Canchimbo", "ranking": 6993 }, { "player_name": "Mateo García", "ranking": 6994 }, { "player_name": "Alan Rodríguez", "ranking": 6995 }, { "player_name": "Mateo Gamarra", "ranking": 6996 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jorge Daniel Valencia", "ranking": 6998 }, { "player_name": "Adrian Bajrami", "ranking": 6999 }, { "player_name": "Iván Leguizamón", "ranking": 7000 }, { "player_name": "Rubén Lezcano", "ranking": 7001 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Mina", "ranking": 7002 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.701, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", 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evaluated 7 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Racing Sant, rel: 0.09, gls/90: 2.3076923076923075, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4101, "goals": 0.5724, "goal_rate": 0.5724, "shots_on_target": 1.1642, "total_shots": 2.5178, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.6274, "rating": 7.0036, "minutes": 77.99, "total_pass": 11.2676, "accurate_pass": 8.4017, "duels_won": 2.7673, "total_long_balls": 0.4595, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4595, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9208, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7411, "crosses_total": 0.2267, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.613, "possession_lost": 7.7142, "dispossessed": 1.1342, "duels_lost": 4.8954, "aerial_lost": 0.7333, "total_contest": 1.0811, "won_contest": 0.8544, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5806, "fouls": 2.4875, "fouls_drawn": 0.8073, "assists": 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"margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.331715 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.174305 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.106315 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.08748 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.05687 } ], "others_margin": -0.174199 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8494791984558105, "model_output": 6.8495, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0422 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0419 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0335 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0254 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0169 } ], "others": -0.0432, "total": 6.8495, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.042204 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.041862 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.03348 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.025371 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.016923 } ], "others_margin": -0.043146 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9919, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9759, "expected_assists": 0.1007, "assists": 0.1022, "assist_rate": 0.1022, "expected_goals": 0.1073, "goals": 0.1146, "goal_rate": 0.1146, "shots_on_target": 0.4541, "total_shots": 1.3488, "rating": 6.8495, "minutes": 82.5, "total_pass": 37.6091, "accurate_pass": 32.157, "duels_won": 3.9883, "total_long_balls": 1.8893, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8229, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8728, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6318, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.7362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5252, "crosses_total": 2.1568, "crosses_accurate": 0.3756, "touches": 52.2887, "possession_lost": 10.7788, "dispossessed": 1.0295, "duels_lost": 3.9105, "aerial_won": 0.2527, "aerial_lost": 0.5323, "interceptions": 0.3756, "tackles_won": 1.0206, "tackles": 1.2992, "clearances": 0.2714, "total_contest": 1.6307, "won_contest": 0.83, "challenges_lost": 0.7971, "fouls": 0.751, "fouls_drawn": 1.6064, "blocks": 0.2388, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1941, "ball_carries": 14.2499, "total_progression": 52.3264, "progressive_carries": 1.697, "shots_off_target": 0.8947 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3200000, "quality_factor": 0.4399, "boost_factor": 0.9919, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0451)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9759, "expected_assists": 0.1007, "assists": 0.0976, "assist_rate": 0.0976, "expected_goals": 0.1073, "goals": 0.1094, "goal_rate": 0.1094, "shots_on_target": 0.4837, "total_shots": 1.4381, "rating": 6.8495, "minutes": 82.5, "total_pass": 37.6091, "accurate_pass": 32.157, "duels_won": 3.9883, "total_long_balls": 1.8893, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8229, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9929, quality 0.462)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5451, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "assists": 0.0575, "assist_rate": 0.0575, "expected_goals": 0.0299, "goals": 0.0561, "goal_rate": 0.0561, "shots_on_target": 0.1442, "total_shots": 0.5042, "rating": 6.7699, "minutes": 81.31, "total_pass": 34.5952, "accurate_pass": 27.5957, "duels_won": 2.9121, "total_long_balls": 2.1421, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3859, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0753, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.0317, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.5198, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.564, "crosses_total": 0.3281, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.0947, "possession_lost": 8.7064, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.3052, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3281, "interceptions": 0.3859, "tackles_won": 0.9843, "tackles": 1.3123, "clearances": 4.0227, 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0.0352 } ], "others": 0.083, "total": 1.1972, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.153422, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.133256 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.087115 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.064266 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.055251 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.032073 } ], "others_margin": 0.071946 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.808878421783447, "model_output": 4.8089, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2968 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0817 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0344 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0202 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4412, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5089 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.368 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.3703 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"items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0566 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0432 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0092 } ], "others": 0.0229, "total": 0.4901, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056571 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.043165 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028291 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.019023 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.009249 } ], "others_margin": 0.022889 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.717854022979736, "model_output": 6.7179, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0086 } ], "others": -0.0284, "total": 6.7179, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.013998 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013182 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011024 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.010098 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.008586 } ], "others_margin": -0.028401 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0000, quality 0.505)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2107, "tackles": 2.2279, "tackles_won": 1.1972, "clearances": 4.8089, "aerial_won": 1.7661, "total_shots": 0.4901, "rating": 6.7179, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.2142, "accurate_pass": 31.7968, "duels_won": 7.5785, "total_long_balls": 2.7475, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7181, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7301, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1803, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.4841, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6165, "crosses_total": 0.8588, "crosses_accurate": 0.1257, "touches": 67.4368, "possession_lost": 12.8399, "dispossessed": 0.3477, "duels_lost": 3.8543, "aerial_lost": 0.7507, "total_contest": 1.6203, "won_contest": 0.4373, "ball_recovery": 4.9731, "challenges_lost": 0.89, "fouls": 0.683, "fouls_drawn": 1.5527, "blocks": 0.4094, "goals": 0.0, 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"dispossessed", "contribution": -0.131 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.1165 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0861 } ], "others": -0.1241, "total": 1.4216, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320928, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.109921 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.103905 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.079874 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.076827 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.057333 } ], "others_margin": -0.083598 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.624607264995575, "model_output": 0.6246, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0686 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0225 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0203 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0097 } ], "others": 0.02, "total": 0.6246, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.068647 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.022475 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.020295 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.011238 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.00972 } ], "others_margin": 0.019912 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.825292587280273, "model_output": 6.8253, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0179 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0078 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0073 } ], "others": 0.0205, "total": 6.8253, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.0179 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.012727 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011286 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.007796 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.007259 } ], "others_margin": 0.02052 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9899, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2372, "tackles": 1.9578, "tackles_won": 1.096, "clearances": 4.3422, "aerial_won": 1.4072, "total_shots": 0.6183, "rating": 6.8253, "minutes": 88.33, "total_pass": 57.761, "accurate_pass": 51.3843, "duels_won": 7.4256, "total_long_balls": 4.5421, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5121, "total_own_half_passes": 34.7308, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.4769, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.0301, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9074, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.7462, "possession_lost": 8.0458, "dispossessed": 0.9769, "duels_lost": 3.372, "aerial_lost": 1.0236, "total_contest": 0.7655, "won_contest": 0.5747, "ball_recovery": 5.6311, "challenges_lost": 0.6793, "fouls": 0.5014, "fouls_drawn": 1.4714, "blocks": 0.2244, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0091, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "shots_on_target": 0.3106, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0102, "ball_carries": 27.0033, "total_progression": 99.1383, "progressive_carries": 1.2609, "key_pass": 0.1908, "shots_off_target": 0.3077 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1500000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9899, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0390)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.274, "tackles": 1.9578, "tackles_won": 1.1383, "clearances": 4.3422, "aerial_won": 1.4072, "total_shots": 0.5942, "rating": 6.8253, "minutes": 88.33, "total_pass": 57.761, "accurate_pass": 51.3843, "duels_won": 7.4256, "total_long_balls": 4.5421, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5121, "total_own_half_passes": 34.7308, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.4769, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.0301, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9074, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.7462, "possession_lost": 8.0458, "dispossessed": 0.9769, "duels_lost": 3.372, "aerial_lost": 1.0236, "total_contest": 0.7655, "won_contest": 0.5747, "ball_recovery": 5.6311, "challenges_lost": 0.6793, "fouls": 0.5031, "fouls_drawn": 1.4565, "blocks": 0.2244, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0091, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "shots_on_target": 0.2985, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0102, "ball_carries": 27.0033, "total_progression": 99.1383, "progressive_carries": 1.2609, "key_pass": 0.1908, "shots_off_target": 0.3077 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.039, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9814, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Racing Sant" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.096, "after": 1.1383 }, { 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0.7655, "won_contest": 0.5747, "ball_recovery": 5.6311, "challenges_lost": 0.6793, "fouls": 0.5031, "fouls_drawn": 1.4565, "blocks": 0.2244, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0091, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "shots_on_target": 0.2985, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0102, "ball_carries": 27.0033, "total_progression": 99.1383, "progressive_carries": 1.2609, "key_pass": 0.1908, "shots_off_target": 0.3077 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.274, "tackles": 1.9578, "tackles_won": 1.1383, "clearances": 4.3422, "aerial_won": 1.4072, "total_shots": 0.6062, "rating": 6.8253, "minutes": 88.33, "total_pass": 57.761, "accurate_pass": 51.3843, "duels_won": 7.4256, "total_long_balls": 4.5421, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5121, "total_own_half_passes": 34.7308, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.4769, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.0301, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9074, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.7462, "possession_lost": 8.0458, "dispossessed": 0.9769, "duels_lost": 3.372, "aerial_lost": 1.0236, "total_contest": 0.7655, "won_contest": 0.5747, "ball_recovery": 5.6311, "challenges_lost": 0.6793, "fouls": 0.5031, "fouls_drawn": 1.4565, "blocks": 0.2244, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0091, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "shots_on_target": 0.2985, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0102, "ball_carries": 27.0033, "total_progression": 99.1383, "progressive_carries": 1.2609, "key_pass": 0.1908, "shots_off_target": 0.3077, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.6, "opponent_faced": "Ryunosuke Sato", "pressing_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ryunosuke Sato", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.0963, xG scale 1.2971, xA scale 1.2971, team xA 1.01 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.274, "tackles": 1.9578, "tackles_won": 1.1383, "clearances": 4.3422, "aerial_won": 1.4072, "total_shots": 0.6062, "rating": 6.8253, "minutes": 88.33, "total_pass": 57.761, "accurate_pass": 51.3843, "duels_won": 7.4256, "total_long_balls": 4.5421, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5121, "total_own_half_passes": 34.7308, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.4769, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.0301, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9074, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.7462, "possession_lost": 8.0458, "dispossessed": 0.9769, "duels_lost": 3.372, "aerial_lost": 1.0236, "total_contest": 0.7655, "won_contest": 0.5747, "ball_recovery": 5.6311, "challenges_lost": 0.6793, "fouls": 0.5031, "fouls_drawn": 1.4565, "blocks": 0.2244, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0118, "expected_assists": 0.014, "shots_on_target": 0.2985, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0132, "ball_carries": 27.0033, "total_progression": 99.1383, "progressive_carries": 1.2609, "key_pass": 0.1908, "shots_off_target": 0.3077, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.6, "opponent_faced": "Ryunosuke Sato", "pressing_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.846, "creation_factor": 0.8224 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0963, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7803, "team_expected_assists": 1.0121, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7117, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2971, "xa_scale": 1.2971, "opponent_lambda": 1.151, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 69.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.274, "tackles": 1.9578, "tackles_won": 1.1383, "clearances": 4.3422, "aerial_won": 1.4072, "total_shots": 0.6062, "rating": 6.8253, "minutes": 88.33, "total_pass": 57.761, "accurate_pass": 51.3843, "duels_won": 7.4256, "total_long_balls": 4.5421, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5121, "total_own_half_passes": 34.7308, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.4769, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.0301, 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"antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.846, "creation_factor": 0.8224, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5500, "fifa_rank": 6968.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 69.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.274, "tackles": 1.9578, "tackles_won": 1.1383, "clearances": 4.3422, "aerial_won": 1.4072, "total_shots": 0.6062, "rating": 6.8253, "minutes": 88.33, "total_pass": 57.761, "accurate_pass": 51.3843, "duels_won": 7.4256, "total_long_balls": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9908, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8792, "tackles": 1.8173, "tackles_won": 1.1503, "clearances": 2.5017, "aerial_won": 0.954, "total_shots": 0.3293, "rating": 6.7163, "minutes": 84.99, "total_pass": 39.6065, "accurate_pass": 29.7656, "duels_won": 3.8601, "total_long_balls": 2.8164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5578, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8966, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.6556, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7099, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.11, "crosses_total": 0.5087, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.7105, "possession_lost": 12.942, "dispossessed": 0.1724, "duels_lost": 2.4826, "aerial_lost": 0.8046, "total_contest": 0.7689, "won_contest": 0.2386, "ball_recovery": 3.2929, "challenges_lost": 0.2305, "fouls": 0.8509, "fouls_drawn": 0.3851, "blocks": 0.5218, "goals": 0.0, 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2.5017, "aerial_won": 0.954, "total_shots": 0.3293, "rating": 6.7163, "minutes": 84.99, "total_pass": 39.6065, "accurate_pass": 29.7656, "duels_won": 3.8601, "total_long_balls": 2.8164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5578, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8966, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.6556, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7099, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.11, "crosses_total": 0.5087, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.7105, "possession_lost": 12.942, "dispossessed": 0.1724, "duels_lost": 2.4826, "aerial_lost": 0.8046, "total_contest": 0.7689, "won_contest": 0.2386, "ball_recovery": 3.2929, "challenges_lost": 0.2305, "fouls": 0.8509, "fouls_drawn": 0.3851, "blocks": 0.5218, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0184, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.4812, "total_progression": 48.5836, "progressive_carries": 0.8443, "key_pass": 0.2028, "shots_off_target": 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0.398, "opponent_faced": "Javier Guerra", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0963, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7803, "team_expected_assists": 1.0121, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7117, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2971, "xa_scale": 1.2971, "opponent_lambda": 1.151, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0184, "after": 0.0239 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0278, "after": 0.0361 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8792, "tackles": 1.8173, "tackles_won": 1.1503, "clearances": 2.5017, "aerial_won": 0.954, "total_shots": 0.3293, "rating": 6.7163, "minutes": 84.99, "total_pass": 39.6065, "accurate_pass": 29.7656, "duels_won": 3.8601, "total_long_balls": 2.8164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5578, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8966, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.6556, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7099, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.11, "crosses_total": 0.5087, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.7105, "possession_lost": 12.942, "dispossessed": 0.1724, "duels_lost": 2.4826, "aerial_lost": 0.8046, "total_contest": 0.7689, "won_contest": 0.2386, "ball_recovery": 3.2929, "challenges_lost": 0.2305, "fouls": 0.8509, "fouls_drawn": 0.3851, "blocks": 0.5218, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "expected_assists": 0.0361, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.4812, "total_progression": 48.5836, 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8792, "tackles": 1.8173, "tackles_won": 1.1503, "clearances": 2.5017, "aerial_won": 0.954, "total_shots": 0.3293, "rating": 6.7163, "minutes": 84.99, "total_pass": 39.6065, "accurate_pass": 29.7656, "duels_won": 3.8601, "total_long_balls": 2.8164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5578, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8966, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.6556, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7099, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.11, "crosses_total": 0.5087, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.7105, "possession_lost": 12.942, "dispossessed": 0.1724, "duels_lost": 2.4826, "aerial_lost": 0.8046, "total_contest": 0.7689, "won_contest": 0.2386, "ball_recovery": 3.2929, "challenges_lost": 0.2305, "fouls": 0.8509, "fouls_drawn": 0.3851, "blocks": 0.5218, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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"importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1709 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.072 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0244 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0344, "total": 0.1473, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.170885 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.071991 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024385 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011906 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.011366 } ], "others_margin": -0.034511 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.669084548950195, "model_output": 6.6691, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0274 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0122 } ], "others": -0.054, "total": 6.6691, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.027372 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.021145 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014294 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.012316 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.012198 } ], "others_margin": -0.053952 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9901, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4635, "tackles": 0.5333, "tackles_won": 0.3195, "clearances": 1.9394, "aerial_won": 0.5138, "total_shots": 0.1458, "rating": 6.6691, "minutes": 14.42, "total_pass": 19.8272, "accurate_pass": 15.7066, "duels_won": 2.4919, "total_long_balls": 2.7895, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4599, "total_own_half_passes": 14.3802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0234, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.447, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6833, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.5452, "possession_lost": 4.2846, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7406, "aerial_lost": 1.1038, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9406, "challenges_lost": 0.1394, "fouls": 1.4975, "fouls_drawn": 0.6127, "blocks": 0.9197, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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17.2908, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1373, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4364, "tackles": 0.5021, "tackles_won": 0.3008, "clearances": 1.826, "aerial_won": 0.4838, "total_shots": 0.1373, "rating": 6.6691, "minutes": 13.58, "total_pass": 18.6683, "accurate_pass": 14.7885, "duels_won": 2.3462, "total_long_balls": 2.6265, "accurate_long_balls": 0.433, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5397, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2037, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5849, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.8183, "possession_lost": 4.0342, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.5804, "aerial_lost": 1.1038, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 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], "others_margin": -0.159925 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.057575445622205734, "model_output": 0.0576, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0863 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0966, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0078 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0055 } ], "others": 0.0014, "total": 0.0576, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.337105, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.250172 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.173648 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.158653 }, { "name": 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0.3125, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.319323 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.16056 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.062596 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.035195 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.035102 } ], "others_margin": -0.260277 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.045903205871582, "model_output": 7.0459, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1198 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1067 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1029 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0575 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0313 } ], "others": 0.0457, "total": 7.0459, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.119766 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.10672 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.102947 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.057533 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.031266 } ], "others_margin": 0.045741 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"progressive_carries": 0.6861, "shots_off_target": 0.2464, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.322, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.71 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6515, "expected_assists": 0.035, "assist_rate": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.029, "goal_rate": 0.0645, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1244, "total_shots": 0.3709, "rating": 7.0459, "minutes": 22.71, "total_pass": 71.6393, "accurate_pass": 65.8721, "duels_won": 7.8456, "total_long_balls": 1.6359, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6359, "total_own_half_passes": 33.9849, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.2676, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.6543, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.6047, "crosses_total": 0.3777, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 98.7791, "possession_lost": 14.4497, "dispossessed": 1.4194, "duels_lost": 10.5582, "aerial_won": 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74.0 } } ] }, "André Almeida": { "player_id": 845693, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 176, "market_value": 6200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "assist_rate": 0.0768, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "goal_rate": 0.0336, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7564, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 4.6122, "dispossessed": 0.3622, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, 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0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1143 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0408 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0077 } ], "others": 0.0198, "total": 6.7564, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.1143 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.040801 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023243 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.009389 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.007695 } ], "others_margin": 0.019863 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 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0.506, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7373, "expected_assists": 0.0591, "assist_rate": 0.0768, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "goal_rate": 0.0336, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0831, "total_shots": 0.3342, "rating": 6.7564, "minutes": 22.13, "total_pass": 17.3801, "accurate_pass": 14.9658, "duels_won": 2.1235, "total_long_balls": 1.1258, "accurate_long_balls": 0.753, "total_own_half_passes": 5.9995, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2328, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.3806, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7329, "crosses_total": 1.1361, "crosses_accurate": 0.3437, "touches": 23.21, "possession_lost": 4.6122, "dispossessed": 0.3622, "duels_lost": 1.3054, "aerial_won": 0.1598, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2327, "tackles_won": 0.5147, "tackles": 1.0874, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8624, "won_contest": 0.4385, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4783, "fouls_drawn": 0.4378, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0716, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 8.1275, "total_progression": 34.5962, "progressive_carries": 0.645, "shots_off_target": 0.251, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.506, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.13, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3700, "fifa_rank": 2894.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } } ] }, "Andrés Martín": { "player_id": 922939, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 178, "market_value": 8199999, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2611, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1257, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8656, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 26, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 18.4453, "dispossessed": 0.5613, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, 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"importance": 0.0717 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0497 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0454 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5367, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2025 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0385 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0281 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0267 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0154 } ], "others": 0.0537, "total": 0.4432, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.622283, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.473737 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.109157 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.072735 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.068856 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.040295 } ], "others_margin": 0.128983 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8332708477973938, "model_output": 0.8333, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2764 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0561 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5982 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1815 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.1112 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0682 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0554 } ], "others": -0.1352, "total": 0.8333, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.372807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.598206 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.181466 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.11121 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.068169 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.055379 } ], "others_margin": -0.135133 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07594503462314606, "model_output": 0.0759, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1017 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0665 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0563 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0639, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0075 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0045 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0033 } ], "others": 0.0129, "total": 0.0759, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.751197, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.434849 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.167174 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.122001 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.077656 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.053054 } ], "others_margin": 0.188416 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6807868480682373, "model_output": 0.6808, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0328 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2977 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0706 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0476 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0267 } ], "others": 0.1338, "total": 0.6808, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.584236 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.172439 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.101442 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.053271 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.050006 } ], "others_margin": 0.218949 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.865608215332031, "model_output": 6.8656, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0919 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0719 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0308 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0255 } ], "others": 0.0903, "total": 6.8656, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.091893 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.071898 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.030801 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.026439 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.02553 } ], "others_margin": 0.090287 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9993, quality 0.501)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1576, "goals": 0.0898, "goal_rate": 0.0898, "shots_on_target": 0.4429, "total_shots": 0.8327, "expected_assists": 0.0759, "key_pass": 0.6803, "rating": 6.8656, "minutes": 20.0, "total_pass": 25.9692, "accurate_pass": 19.9666, "duels_won": 5.014, "total_long_balls": 0.2807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2807, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6031, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5998, "crosses_total": 3.8224, "crosses_accurate": 0.2807, "touches": 48.4471, "possession_lost": 14.4418, "dispossessed": 0.5613, "duels_lost": 4.8547, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 3.7253, "won_contest": 1.8345, "ball_recovery": 4.5498, "challenges_lost": 1.511, "fouls": 0.8915, "fouls_drawn": 1.6189, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.9497, "tackles_won": 0.3302, "tackles": 1.5606, "clearances": 0.3884, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6603, "xgot": 0.6358, "offsides": 0.7186, "ball_carries": 14.8642, "total_progression": 43.2768, "progressive_carries": 2.2297, "shots_off_target": 0.3898 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8199999, "quality_factor": 0.5011, "boost_factor": 0.9993, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.0 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2013, "goals": 0.1147, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "shots_on_target": 0.5657, "total_shots": 1.0636, "expected_assists": 0.0969, "key_pass": 0.8689, "rating": 6.8656, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 33.1683, "accurate_pass": 25.5016, "duels_won": 6.404, "total_long_balls": 0.3585, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3585, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7602, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.3699, "crosses_total": 4.882, "crosses_accurate": 0.3585, "touches": 61.8774, "possession_lost": 18.4453, "dispossessed": 0.5613, "duels_lost": 6.2005, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 4.758, "won_contest": 2.3431, "ball_recovery": 5.8111, "challenges_lost": 1.511, "fouls": 1.1386, "fouls_drawn": 2.0677, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.213, "tackles_won": 0.4217, "tackles": 1.9932, "clearances": 0.4961, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.8433, "xgot": 0.8121, "offsides": 0.7186, "ball_carries": 18.9848, "total_progression": 55.2738, "progressive_carries": 2.8478, "shots_off_target": 0.4979, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.54, "projection_minutes": 20.0, "minutes_scale": 1.2772, "appearance_probability": 0.57 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2013, "goals": 0.1147, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "shots_on_target": 0.5657, "total_shots": 1.0636, "expected_assists": 0.0969, "key_pass": 0.8689, "rating": 6.8656, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 33.1683, "accurate_pass": 25.5016, "duels_won": 6.404, "total_long_balls": 0.3585, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3585, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7602, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.3699, "crosses_total": 4.882, "crosses_accurate": 0.3585, "touches": 61.8774, "possession_lost": 18.4453, "dispossessed": 0.5613, "duels_lost": 6.2005, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 4.758, "won_contest": 2.3431, "ball_recovery": 5.8111, "challenges_lost": 1.511, "fouls": 1.1386, "fouls_drawn": 2.0677, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.213, "tackles_won": 0.4217, "tackles": 1.9932, "clearances": 0.4961, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.8433, "xgot": 0.8121, "offsides": 0.7186, "ball_carries": 18.9848, "total_progression": 55.2738, "progressive_carries": 2.8478, "shots_off_target": 0.4979, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.0963, xG scale 1.2971, xA scale 1.2971, team xA 1.01 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2611, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5657, "total_shots": 1.0636, "expected_assists": 0.1257, "key_pass": 0.8689, "rating": 6.8656, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 33.1683, "accurate_pass": 25.5016, "duels_won": 6.404, "total_long_balls": 0.3585, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3585, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7602, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.3699, "crosses_total": 4.882, "crosses_accurate": 0.3585, "touches": 61.8774, "possession_lost": 18.4453, "dispossessed": 0.5613, "duels_lost": 6.2005, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 4.758, "won_contest": 2.3431, "ball_recovery": 5.8111, "challenges_lost": 1.511, "fouls": 1.1386, "fouls_drawn": 2.0677, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.213, "tackles_won": 0.4217, "tackles": 1.9932, "clearances": 0.4961, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.8433, "xgot": 1.0534, "offsides": 0.7186, "ball_carries": 18.9848, "total_progression": 55.2738, "progressive_carries": 2.8478, "shots_off_target": 0.4979, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0963, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7803, "team_expected_assists": 1.0121, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7117, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2971, "xa_scale": 1.2971, "opponent_lambda": 1.151, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.57 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2013, "after": 0.2611 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0969, "after": 0.1257 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2611, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5657, "total_shots": 1.0636, "expected_assists": 0.1257, "key_pass": 0.8689, "rating": 6.8656, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 33.1683, "accurate_pass": 25.5016, "duels_won": 6.404, "total_long_balls": 0.3585, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3585, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7602, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.3699, "crosses_total": 4.882, "crosses_accurate": 0.3585, "touches": 61.8774, "possession_lost": 18.4453, "dispossessed": 0.5613, "duels_lost": 6.2005, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 4.758, "won_contest": 2.3431, "ball_recovery": 5.8111, "challenges_lost": 1.511, "fouls": 1.1386, "fouls_drawn": 2.0677, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.213, "tackles_won": 0.4217, "tackles": 1.9932, "clearances": 0.4961, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.8433, "xgot": 1.0534, "offsides": 0.7186, "ball_carries": 18.9848, "total_progression": 55.2738, "progressive_carries": 2.8478, "shots_off_target": 0.4979, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2264, "fifa_rank": 1564.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2611, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5657, "total_shots": 1.0636, "expected_assists": 0.1257, "key_pass": 0.8689, "rating": 6.8656, "minutes": 25.54, "total_pass": 33.1683, "accurate_pass": 25.5016, "duels_won": 6.404, "total_long_balls": 0.3585, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3585, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7602, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.3699, "crosses_total": 4.882, "crosses_accurate": 0.3585, "touches": 61.8774, "possession_lost": 18.4453, "dispossessed": 0.5613, "duels_lost": 6.2005, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 4.758, "won_contest": 2.3431, "ball_recovery": 5.8111, "challenges_lost": 1.511, "fouls": 1.1386, "fouls_drawn": 2.0677, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.213, "tackles_won": 0.4217, "tackles": 1.9932, "clearances": 0.4961, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.8433, "xgot": 1.0534, "offsides": 0.7186, "ball_carries": 18.9848, "total_progression": 55.2738, "progressive_carries": 2.8478, "shots_off_target": 0.4979, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.54, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.257, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.131, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.131, "scorer_weight": 0.1191, "squad_weight_total": 1.5453, "weight_share": 0.077, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yassir Zabiri", "weight": 0.644, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.644, "runner_up": "Pablo García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.255 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2611, "goal_rate": 0.1147, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5657, "total_shots": 1.0636, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9896, quality 0.442)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1007, "goals": 0.0724, "goal_rate": 0.0724, "shots_on_target": 0.249, "total_shots": 0.5532, "expected_assists": 0.0097, "key_pass": 0.1702, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 16.9, "total_pass": 2.7781, "accurate_pass": 2.5874, "duels_won": 1.0758, "total_long_balls": 0.2243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2243, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.3467, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.1561, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.4622, "possession_lost": 0.9164, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 1.384, "aerial_lost": 0.692, "total_contest": 0.5746, "won_contest": 0.5746, "ball_recovery": 0.7523, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1907, "fouls_drawn": 0.5012, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, 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"shots_on_target": 0.3729, "total_shots": 0.8286, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "key_pass": 0.2549, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 4.1609, "accurate_pass": 3.8753, "duels_won": 1.6113, "total_long_balls": 0.3359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3359, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7315, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.181, "possession_lost": 1.3725, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 2.0729, "aerial_lost": 0.692, "total_contest": 0.8606, "won_contest": 0.8606, "ball_recovery": 1.1268, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2856, "fouls_drawn": 0.7507, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2856, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.465, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4124, "total_progression": 2.9739, "progressive_carries": 0.465, "shots_off_target": 0.4556, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, 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true, "xg_scale": 1.2971, "xa_scale": 1.2971, "opponent_lambda": 1.151, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.56 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1508, "after": 0.1956 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 69.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1956, "goal_rate": 0.1084, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3729, "total_shots": 0.8286, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "key_pass": 0.2549, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 4.1609, "accurate_pass": 3.8753, "duels_won": 1.6113, "total_long_balls": 0.3359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3359, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7315, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.181, "possession_lost": 1.3725, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 2.0729, "aerial_lost": 0.692, "total_contest": 0.8606, "won_contest": 0.8606, 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"projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5690, "fifa_rank": 6962.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 69.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1956, "goal_rate": 0.1084, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3729, "total_shots": 0.8286, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "key_pass": 0.2549, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 4.1609, "accurate_pass": 3.8753, "duels_won": 1.6113, "total_long_balls": 0.3359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3359, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7315, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.181, "possession_lost": 1.3725, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 2.0729, "aerial_lost": 0.692, 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"ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mikel Vesga", "ranking": 2259 }, { "player_name": "Malo Gusto", "ranking": 2260 }, { "player_name": "Aldrix Jara", "ranking": 2261 }, { "player_name": "Yehor Yarmoliuk", "ranking": 2262 }, { "player_name": "Chimy Ávila", "ranking": 2263 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Brais Méndez", "ranking": 2265 }, { "player_name": "Bafodé Diakité", "ranking": 2266 }, { "player_name": "Kwasi Sibo", "ranking": 2267 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Henderson", "ranking": 2268 }, { "player_name": "Andoni Gorosabel", "ranking": 2269 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", 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"name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0919 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0719 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0308 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0255 } ], "others": 0.0903, "total": 6.8656, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.091893 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.071898 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.030801 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.026439 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.02553 } ], "others_margin": 0.090287 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"contribution": -0.0198 } ], "others": -0.0774, "total": 0.172, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.600946 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.132291 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.093931 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.088937 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.076435 } ], "others_margin": -0.371495 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.613399505615234, "model_output": 6.6134, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0452 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", 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"shots_on_target": 0.3729, "total_shots": 0.8286, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "key_pass": 0.2549, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 4.1609, "accurate_pass": 3.8753, "duels_won": 1.6113, "total_long_balls": 0.3359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3359, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7315, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.181, "possession_lost": 1.3725, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 2.0729, "aerial_lost": 0.692, "total_contest": 0.8606, "won_contest": 0.8606, "ball_recovery": 1.1268, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2856, "fouls_drawn": 0.7507, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2856, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.465, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4124, "total_progression": 2.9739, "progressive_carries": 0.465, "shots_off_target": 0.4556, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, 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true, "xg_scale": 1.2971, "xa_scale": 1.2971, "opponent_lambda": 1.151, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.56 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1508, "after": 0.1956 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 69.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1956, "goal_rate": 0.1084, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3729, "total_shots": 0.8286, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "key_pass": 0.2549, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 4.1609, "accurate_pass": 3.8753, "duels_won": 1.6113, "total_long_balls": 0.3359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3359, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7315, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.181, "possession_lost": 1.3725, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 2.0729, "aerial_lost": 0.692, "total_contest": 0.8606, "won_contest": 0.8606, 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"projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5690, "fifa_rank": 6962.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 69.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1956, "goal_rate": 0.1084, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3729, "total_shots": 0.8286, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "key_pass": 0.2549, "rating": 6.6134, "minutes": 25.31, "total_pass": 4.1609, "accurate_pass": 3.8753, "duels_won": 1.6113, "total_long_balls": 0.3359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3359, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.017, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7315, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.181, "possession_lost": 1.3725, "dispossessed": 0.5012, "duels_lost": 2.0729, "aerial_lost": 0.692, 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0.1342 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0699 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0488 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0432 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0387 } ], "others": -0.2073, "total": 0.9777, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134178 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.069886 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.048819 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.043155 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.038658 } ], "others_margin": -0.207221 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.822388648986816, "model_output": 6.8224, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], 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"role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"contribution": -0.0437 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0092 } ], "others": -0.0075, "total": 0.4404, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056181 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.043749 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.016645 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.01115 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009192 } ], "others_margin": -0.007371 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.734018802642822, "model_output": 6.734, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0085 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0084 } ], "others": -0.021, "total": 6.734, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020303 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016769 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.010788 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.008515 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.008361 } ], "others_margin": -0.020966 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 12, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in 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0.0014, "goal_rate": 0.0014, "assists": 0.1036, "assist_rate": 0.1036, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "expected_assists": 0.074, "shots_on_target": 0.1291, "big_chances_created": 0.1842, "xgot": 0.0165, "ball_carries": 11.7617, "total_progression": 37.3462, "progressive_carries": 0.4861, "key_pass": 0.6208, "shots_off_target": 0.3063 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9976, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0041)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0279, "tackles": 1.7853, "tackles_won": 1.0553, "clearances": 2.7088, "aerial_won": 0.9247, "total_shots": 0.4336, "rating": 6.6975, "minutes": 81.33, "total_pass": 31.8992, "accurate_pass": 25.4557, "duels_won": 4.1337, "total_long_balls": 4.4832, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1704, "total_own_half_passes": 14.1117, "accurate_own_half_passes": 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normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.452)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5468, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "assists": 0.0571, "assist_rate": 0.0571, "expected_goals": 0.0569, "goals": 0.0758, "goal_rate": 0.0758, "shots_on_target": 0.22, "total_shots": 0.8569, "rating": 7.0982, "minutes": 83.7, "total_pass": 47.484, "accurate_pass": 40.6985, "duels_won": 6.8785, "total_long_balls": 5.2283, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2542, "total_own_half_passes": 25.0892, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7373, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9613, "crosses_total": 0.0865, "crosses_accurate": 0.0136, "touches": 62.775, "possession_lost": 9.7374, "dispossessed": 1.2635, "duels_lost": 5.5169, "aerial_won": 1.3533, "aerial_lost": 0.9413, "interceptions": 1.0435, "tackles_won": 2.1706, "tackles": 3.0324, "clearances": 1.8911, "total_contest": 1.227, "won_contest": 0.6219, "challenges_lost": 1.4043, "fouls": 1.4663, "fouls_drawn": 1.8708, "blocks": 0.4139, "big_chances_created": 0.0429, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0538, "ball_carries": 12.1227, "total_progression": 22.6973, "progressive_carries": 0.3473, "shots_off_target": 0.6369 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4200000, "quality_factor": 0.4523, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0140)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5468, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "assists": 0.0563, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "expected_goals": 0.0569, "goals": 0.0747, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.2236, "total_shots": 0.8516, "rating": 7.0982, "minutes": 83.7, "total_pass": 47.484, "accurate_pass": 40.6985, "duels_won": 6.8785, "total_long_balls": 5.2283, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2542, "total_own_half_passes": 25.0892, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7373, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9613, "crosses_total": 0.0853, "crosses_accurate": 0.0136, "touches": 62.775, "possession_lost": 9.7374, "dispossessed": 1.2635, "duels_lost": 5.5169, "aerial_won": 1.3533, "aerial_lost": 0.9413, "interceptions": 1.0614, "tackles_won": 2.1598, "tackles": 3.0324, "clearances": 1.8911, "total_contest": 1.227, "won_contest": 0.6219, "challenges_lost": 1.4043, "fouls": 1.4718, "fouls_drawn": 1.8706, "blocks": 0.4139, "big_chances_created": 0.0429, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0538, "ball_carries": 12.1227, "total_progression": 22.6973, "progressive_carries": 0.3473, "shots_off_target": 0.6369 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.014, "history_matches": 26, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.93, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Valencia" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.0435, "after": 1.0614 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 2.1706, "after": 2.1598 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.4663, "after": 1.4718 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8569, "after": 0.8516 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5468, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "assists": 0.0563, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "expected_goals": 0.0569, "goals": 0.0747, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.2236, "total_shots": 0.8605, "rating": 7.0982, "minutes": 83.7, "total_pass": 47.484, "accurate_pass": 40.6985, "duels_won": 6.8785, "total_long_balls": 5.2283, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2542, "total_own_half_passes": 25.0892, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7373, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9613, "crosses_total": 0.0853, "crosses_accurate": 0.0136, "touches": 62.775, "possession_lost": 9.7374, "dispossessed": 1.2635, "duels_lost": 5.5169, "aerial_won": 1.3533, "aerial_lost": 0.9413, "interceptions": 1.0614, "tackles_won": 2.1598, "tackles": 3.0324, "clearances": 1.8911, "total_contest": 1.227, "won_contest": 0.6219, "challenges_lost": 1.4043, "fouls": 1.4718, "fouls_drawn": 1.8706, "blocks": 0.4139, "big_chances_created": 0.0429, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0538, "ball_carries": 12.1227, "total_progression": 22.6973, "progressive_carries": 0.3473, "shots_off_target": 0.6369 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5468, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "assists": 0.0563, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "expected_goals": 0.0589, "goals": 0.0773, "goal_rate": 0.0773, "shots_on_target": 0.2314, "total_shots": 0.8907, "rating": 7.0982, "minutes": 83.7, "total_pass": 47.484, "accurate_pass": 40.6985, "duels_won": 6.8785, "total_long_balls": 5.2283, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2542, "total_own_half_passes": 25.0892, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7373, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9613, "crosses_total": 0.0853, "crosses_accurate": 0.0136, "touches": 62.775, "possession_lost": 9.7374, "dispossessed": 1.2635, "duels_lost": 5.5169, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.9413, "interceptions": 1.0614, "tackles_won": 2.1598, "tackles": 3.0324, "clearances": 1.8911, "total_contest": 1.227, "won_contest": 0.6219, "challenges_lost": 1.4043, "fouls": 1.4718, "fouls_drawn": 1.8706, "blocks": 0.4139, "big_chances_created": 0.0429, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0557, "ball_carries": 12.1227, "total_progression": 22.6973, "progressive_carries": 0.3473, "shots_off_target": 0.6593, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0351, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.474, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iván Martín", "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.474, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0351, "skill_edge": -0.0041, "height_edge": 0.028, "attacker_skill": 0.4581, "defender_skill": 0.4672, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Iván Martín", "market_value": 4600000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4672 } ], "xg_override": 0.0589 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.3533, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8605, "after": 0.8907 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6369, "after": 0.6593 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2236, "after": 0.2314 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.15 (squad xG sum 0.8983, xG scale 1.2813, xA scale 1.2813, team xA 0.78 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5468, "expected_assists": 0.0486, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0755, "goal_rate": 0.0773, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2314, "total_shots": 0.8907, "rating": 7.0982, "minutes": 83.7, "total_pass": 47.484, "accurate_pass": 40.6985, "duels_won": 6.8785, "total_long_balls": 5.2283, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2542, "total_own_half_passes": 25.0892, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7373, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9613, "crosses_total": 0.0853, "crosses_accurate": 0.0136, "touches": 62.775, "possession_lost": 9.7374, "dispossessed": 1.2635, "duels_lost": 5.5169, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.9413, "interceptions": 1.0614, "tackles_won": 2.1598, "tackles": 3.0324, "clearances": 1.8911, "total_contest": 1.227, "won_contest": 0.6219, "challenges_lost": 1.4043, "fouls": 1.4718, "fouls_drawn": 1.8706, "blocks": 0.4139, "big_chances_created": 0.0429, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0714, "ball_carries": 12.1227, "total_progression": 22.6973, "progressive_carries": 0.3473, "shots_off_target": 0.6593, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0351, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.474, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iván Martín", "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.169, "creation_factor": 1.2093 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.151, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8983, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6123, "team_expected_assists": 0.7846, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6817, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2813, "xa_scale": 1.2813, "opponent_lambda": 1.422, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0589, "after": 0.0755 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0379, "after": 0.0486 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5468, "expected_assists": 0.0486, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0755, "goal_rate": 0.0773, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2314, "total_shots": 0.8907, "rating": 7.0982, "minutes": 83.7, "total_pass": 47.484, "accurate_pass": 40.6985, "duels_won": 6.8785, "total_long_balls": 5.2283, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2542, "total_own_half_passes": 25.0892, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7373, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9613, "crosses_total": 0.0853, "crosses_accurate": 0.0136, "touches": 62.775, "possession_lost": 9.7374, "dispossessed": 1.2635, "duels_lost": 5.5169, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.9413, "interceptions": 1.0614, "tackles_won": 2.1598, "tackles": 3.0324, "clearances": 1.8911, "total_contest": 1.227, "won_contest": 0.6219, "challenges_lost": 1.4043, "fouls": 1.4718, "fouls_drawn": 1.8706, "blocks": 0.4139, "big_chances_created": 0.0429, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0714, "ball_carries": 12.1227, "total_progression": 22.6973, "progressive_carries": 0.3473, "shots_off_target": 0.6593, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0351, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.474, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iván Martín", "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.169, "creation_factor": 1.2093, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1819, "fifa_rank": 1231.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5468, "expected_assists": 0.0486, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0755, "goal_rate": 0.0773, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2314, "total_shots": 0.8907, "rating": 7.0982, "minutes": 83.7, "total_pass": 47.484, "accurate_pass": 40.6985, "duels_won": 6.8785, "total_long_balls": 5.2283, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2542, "total_own_half_passes": 25.0892, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7373, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9613, "crosses_total": 0.0853, "crosses_accurate": 0.0136, "touches": 62.775, "possession_lost": 9.7374, "dispossessed": 1.2635, "duels_lost": 5.5169, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.9413, "interceptions": 1.0614, "tackles_won": 2.1598, "tackles": 3.0324, "clearances": 1.8911, "total_contest": 1.227, "won_contest": 0.6219, "challenges_lost": 1.4043, "fouls": 1.4718, "fouls_drawn": 1.8706, "blocks": 0.4139, "big_chances_created": 0.0429, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0714, "ball_carries": 12.1227, "total_progression": 22.6973, "progressive_carries": 0.3473, "shots_off_target": 0.6593, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0351, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.474, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iván Martín", "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0727, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.169, "creation_factor": 1.2093, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0727, "scorer_weight": 0.0883, "squad_weight_total": 1.0966, "weight_share": 0.0805, "finishing_factor": 1.169, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5468, "expected_assists": 0.0486, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0755, "goal_rate": 0.0773, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2314, "total_shots": 0.8907, "rating": 7.0982, "minutes": 83.7, "total_pass": 47.484, "accurate_pass": 40.6985, "duels_won": 6.8785, "total_long_balls": 5.2283, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2542, "total_own_half_passes": 25.0892, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7373, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9613, "crosses_total": 0.0853, "crosses_accurate": 0.0136, "touches": 62.775, "possession_lost": 9.7374, "dispossessed": 1.2635, "duels_lost": 5.5169, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.9413, "interceptions": 1.0614, "tackles_won": 2.1598, "tackles": 3.0324, "clearances": 1.8911, "total_contest": 1.227, "won_contest": 0.6219, "challenges_lost": 1.4043, "fouls": 1.4718, "fouls_drawn": 1.8706, "blocks": 0.4139, "big_chances_created": 0.0429, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0714, "ball_carries": 12.1227, "total_progression": 22.6973, "progressive_carries": 0.3473, "shots_off_target": 0.6593, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0351, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.474, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iván Martín", "opponent_faced": "Iván Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0727, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0474, "finishing_factor": 1.169, "creation_factor": 1.2093, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0474, "provider_weight": 0.0588, "squad_weight_total": 0.8566, "weight_share": 0.0686, "creation_factor": 1.2093, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Javier Guerra": { "player_id": 1122610, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 187, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1433, "assist_rate": 0.1225, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0057, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1806, "expected_assists": 0.1118, "assists": 0.124, "assist_rate": 0.124, "expected_goals": 0.1579, "goals": 0.1612, "goal_rate": 0.1612, "shots_on_target": 0.5848, "total_shots": 1.7686, "rating": 6.8608, "minutes": 81.1, "total_pass": 27.3485, "accurate_pass": 20.8128, "duels_won": 3.9534, "total_long_balls": 3.9614, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9944, "total_own_half_passes": 11.132, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.7299, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2166, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0829, "crosses_total": 1.5451, "crosses_accurate": 0.3267, "touches": 44.8104, "possession_lost": 14.8227, "dispossessed": 2.1203, "duels_lost": 5.8644, "aerial_won": 0.2635, "aerial_lost": 0.7269, "interceptions": 0.3049, "tackles_won": 0.6682, "tackles": 0.9389, "clearances": 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3.9614, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9944, "total_own_half_passes": 11.132, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.7299, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2166, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.0829, "crosses_total": 1.5547, "crosses_accurate": 0.3267, "touches": 44.8104, "possession_lost": 14.8227, "dispossessed": 2.1203, "duels_lost": 5.8644, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.7269, "interceptions": 0.3053, "tackles_won": 0.6682, "tackles": 0.9389, "clearances": 0.4653, "total_contest": 3.4902, "won_contest": 1.8467, "challenges_lost": 0.7393, "fouls": 0.6361, "fouls_drawn": 0.9055, "blocks": 0.1106, "big_chances_created": 0.2392, "big_chances_missed": 0.2789, "xgot": 0.1162, "ball_carries": 13.4056, "total_progression": 60.1063, "progressive_carries": 1.4511, "shots_off_target": 1.4313, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2091, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.602, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alvaro Mantilla", "opponent_faced": "Alvaro Mantilla", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Alvaro Mantilla", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "duel_win_rate": 0.602, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.2091, "skill_edge": 0.1223, "height_edge": 0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.7091, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Alvaro Mantilla", "market_value": 1200000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.1909 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.2635, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.7615, "after": 2.1298 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1838, "after": 1.4313 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 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0.0144 } ], "others": -0.0065, "total": 0.4418, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.153422, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.740593 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.051841 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.041311 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.034271 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.032633 } ], "others_margin": -0.014394 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.8067207932472229, "model_output": 0.8067, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2968 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0817 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0344 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0202 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4412, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1097 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2389 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 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"contribution": -0.8214 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1401 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0349 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0295 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0443, "total": 0.2963, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320928, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.90619 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.289756 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.087364 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.08033 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.034218 } ], "others_margin": -0.13947 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.12935583293437958, "model_output": 0.1294, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2572 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0269 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0072 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0066 } ], "others": -0.049, "total": 0.1294, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.257188 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026904 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.010449 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.007191 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.006648 } ], "others_margin": -0.048965 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.722177505493164, "model_output": 6.7222, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0071 } ], "others": -0.015, "total": 6.7222, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020626 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.01388 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01225 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.009122 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.007083 } ], "others_margin": -0.014995 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0009, quality 0.532)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2517, "tackles": 0.6823, "tackles_won": 0.4422, "clearances": 0.8074, "aerial_won": 0.2966, "total_shots": 0.1295, "rating": 6.7222, "minutes": 13.8, "total_pass": 6.8808, "accurate_pass": 4.8703, "duels_won": 1.0593, "total_long_balls": 1.2324, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2812, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9852, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9852, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8956, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8851, "crosses_total": 0.3307, "crosses_accurate": 0.3307, "touches": 11.2667, "possession_lost": 3.956, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3404, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6119, "challenges_lost": 0.389, "fouls": 0.9513, "fouls_drawn": 0.2812, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8851, "crosses_total": 0.3307, "crosses_accurate": 0.3307, "touches": 11.2667, "possession_lost": 3.956, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3404, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6119, "challenges_lost": 0.389, "fouls": 0.9471, "fouls_drawn": 0.28, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.0, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1295 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0044, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1533, "prior_reliability": 0.06, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Valencia" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 13.8 to 13.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7976 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0467 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0431 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0439 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.031 } ], "others": -0.0688, "total": 0.6767, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320928, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.864181 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.077282 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.06636 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.063389 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.042427 } ], "others_margin": -0.096722 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.14091837406158447, "model_output": 0.1409, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.245 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0078 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0078 } ], "others": -0.041, "total": 0.1409, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.245014 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021354 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.008427 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.007822 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.007765 } ], "others_margin": -0.041019 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.775375843048096, "model_output": 6.7754, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0096 } ], "others": 0.0079, "total": 6.7754, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014634 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013161 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.011921 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.01161 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.009623 } ], "others_margin": 0.00789 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0157, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3617, "expected_assists": 0.0279, "assists": 0.029, "assist_rate": 0.029, "expected_goals": 0.0493, "goals": 0.0535, "goal_rate": 0.0535, "shots_on_target": 0.2275, "total_shots": 0.5105, "rating": 6.6754, "minutes": 22.59, "total_pass": 16.4158, "accurate_pass": 13.753, "duels_won": 0.5613, "total_long_balls": 1.2909, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5525, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4718, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.153, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.9441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5999, "crosses_total": 0.3511, "crosses_accurate": 0.117, "touches": 19.5043, "possession_lost": 3.5134, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4259, "aerial_won": 0.1377, "aerial_lost": 0.117, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.324, "tackles": 0.324, "clearances": 0.0995, 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"accurate_long_balls": 0.5571, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5006, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1792, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0515, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6879, "crosses_total": 0.354, "crosses_accurate": 0.118, "touches": 19.6662, "possession_lost": 3.5426, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4294, "aerial_won": 0.1388, "aerial_lost": 0.117, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3267, "tackles": 0.3267, "clearances": 0.1003, "total_contest": 0.3114, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1003, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0164, "ball_carries": 6.7774, "total_progression": 14.8172, "progressive_carries": 0.1973, "shots_off_target": 0.2853, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.78, "projection_minutes": 22.59, "minutes_scale": 1.0083, "appearance_probability": 0.535 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3647, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assists": 0.0292, "assist_rate": 0.0292, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "goals": 0.0539, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "shots_on_target": 0.2294, "total_shots": 0.5147, "rating": 6.6754, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 16.552, "accurate_pass": 13.8671, "duels_won": 0.566, "total_long_balls": 1.3016, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5571, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5006, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1792, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0515, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6879, "crosses_total": 0.354, "crosses_accurate": 0.118, "touches": 19.6662, "possession_lost": 3.5426, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4294, "aerial_won": 0.1388, "aerial_lost": 0.117, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3267, "tackles": 0.3267, "clearances": 0.1003, "total_contest": 0.3114, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1003, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0164, "ball_carries": 6.7774, "total_progression": 14.8172, "progressive_carries": 0.1973, "shots_off_target": 0.2853, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.15 (squad xG sum 0.8983, xG scale 1.2813, xA scale 1.2813, team xA 0.78 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3647, "expected_assists": 0.036, "assist_rate": 0.0292, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0637, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2294, "total_shots": 0.5147, "rating": 6.6754, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 16.552, "accurate_pass": 13.8671, "duels_won": 0.566, "total_long_balls": 1.3016, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5571, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5006, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1792, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0515, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6879, "crosses_total": 0.354, "crosses_accurate": 0.118, "touches": 19.6662, "possession_lost": 3.5426, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4294, "aerial_won": 0.1388, "aerial_lost": 0.117, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3267, "tackles": 0.3267, "clearances": 0.1003, "total_contest": 0.3114, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1003, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.021, "ball_carries": 6.7774, "total_progression": 14.8172, "progressive_carries": 0.1973, "shots_off_target": 0.2853, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.34, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0421, "creation_factor": 1.0141 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.151, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8983, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6123, "team_expected_assists": 0.7846, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6817, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2813, "xa_scale": 1.2813, "opponent_lambda": 1.422, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.535 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0497, "after": 0.0637 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0281, "after": 0.036 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3647, "expected_assists": 0.036, "assist_rate": 0.0292, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0637, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2294, "total_shots": 0.5147, "rating": 6.6754, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 16.552, "accurate_pass": 13.8671, "duels_won": 0.566, "total_long_balls": 1.3016, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5571, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5006, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1792, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0515, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6879, "crosses_total": 0.354, "crosses_accurate": 0.118, "touches": 19.6662, "possession_lost": 3.5426, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4294, "aerial_won": 0.1388, "aerial_lost": 0.117, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3267, "tackles": 0.3267, "clearances": 0.1003, "total_contest": 0.3114, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1003, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.021, "ball_carries": 6.7774, "total_progression": 14.8172, "progressive_carries": 0.1973, "shots_off_target": 0.2853, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.34, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0421, "creation_factor": 1.0141, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3214, "fifa_rank": 1426.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3647, "expected_assists": 0.036, "assist_rate": 0.0292, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0637, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2294, "total_shots": 0.5147, 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"substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.34, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.033, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0421, "creation_factor": 1.0141, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.033, "scorer_weight": 0.0355, "squad_weight_total": 1.0966, "weight_share": 0.0324, "finishing_factor": 1.0421, "appearance_weight": 0.535, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3647, "expected_assists": 0.036, "assist_rate": 0.0292, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0637, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2294, "total_shots": 0.5147, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9987, quality 0.471)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4653, "expected_assists": 0.0608, "assists": 0.0582, "assist_rate": 0.0582, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "goals": 0.048, "goal_rate": 0.048, "shots_on_target": 0.1244, "total_shots": 0.4072, "rating": 6.7334, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 13.2046, "accurate_pass": 10.819, "duels_won": 1.5091, "total_long_balls": 1.0496, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5263, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1744, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.5482, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0302, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2708, "crosses_total": 1.9156, "crosses_accurate": 0.8767, "touches": 20.5643, "possession_lost": 5.3609, "dispossessed": 0.5482, "duels_lost": 1.4827, "aerial_won": 0.2817, "aerial_lost": 0.3676, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2044, "tackles": 0.7277, "clearances": 0.8231, "total_contest": 0.4058, "won_contest": 0.2258, "challenges_lost": 0.1477, "fouls": 0.2394, "fouls_drawn": 0.2738, "blocks": 0.1105, "big_chances_created": 0.5114, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8766, "total_progression": 14.469, "progressive_carries": 0.4465, "shots_off_target": 0.2827 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5700000, "quality_factor": 0.4708, "boost_factor": 0.9987, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0122)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4653, "expected_assists": 0.0608, "assists": 0.0575, "assist_rate": 0.0575, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "goals": 0.0474, "goal_rate": 0.0474, "shots_on_target": 0.1261, "total_shots": 0.4118, "rating": 6.7334, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 13.2046, "accurate_pass": 10.819, "duels_won": 1.5091, "total_long_balls": 1.0496, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5263, "total_own_half_passes": 4.1744, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.5482, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0302, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2708, "crosses_total": 1.9094, "crosses_accurate": 0.8767, "touches": 20.5643, "possession_lost": 5.3609, "dispossessed": 0.5482, "duels_lost": 1.4827, "aerial_won": 0.2817, "aerial_lost": 0.3676, "interceptions": 0.0031, "tackles_won": 0.2066, "tackles": 0.7277, "clearances": 0.8231, "total_contest": 0.4058, "won_contest": 0.2258, "challenges_lost": 0.1477, "fouls": 0.2396, "fouls_drawn": 0.283, "blocks": 0.1105, "big_chances_created": 0.5114, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8766, "total_progression": 14.469, "progressive_carries": 0.4465, "shots_off_target": 0.2827 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0122, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2819, "prior_reliability": 0.1467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Valencia" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.2738, "after": 0.283 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.9156, "after": 1.9094 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.4 to 29.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.44)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5456, "expected_assists": 0.0713, "assists": 0.0674, "assist_rate": 0.0674, "expected_goals": 0.0374, "goals": 0.0556, "goal_rate": 0.0556, "shots_on_target": 0.1479, "total_shots": 0.4829, "rating": 6.7334, "minutes": 29.75, "total_pass": 15.4843, "accurate_pass": 12.6868, "duels_won": 1.7696, "total_long_balls": 1.2308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6172, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8951, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.1608, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5892, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5261, "crosses_total": 2.239, "crosses_accurate": 1.0281, "touches": 24.1146, "possession_lost": 6.2864, "dispossessed": 0.5482, "duels_lost": 1.7387, "aerial_won": 0.3303, "aerial_lost": 0.3676, "interceptions": 0.0036, "tackles_won": 0.2423, "tackles": 0.8533, "clearances": 0.9652, "total_contest": 0.4759, "won_contest": 0.2648, "challenges_lost": 0.1477, "fouls": 0.281, "fouls_drawn": 0.3319, "blocks": 0.1296, "big_chances_created": 0.5997, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7185, "total_progression": 16.967, "progressive_carries": 0.5236, "shots_off_target": 0.3315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.438, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.75 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 29.75, "projection_minutes": 25.37, "minutes_scale": 1.1726, "appearance_probability": 0.438 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5456, "expected_assists": 0.0713, "assists": 0.0674, "assist_rate": 0.0674, "expected_goals": 0.0374, "goals": 0.0556, "goal_rate": 0.0556, "shots_on_target": 0.1479, "total_shots": 0.4829, "rating": 6.7334, "minutes": 29.75, "total_pass": 15.4843, "accurate_pass": 12.6868, "duels_won": 1.7696, "total_long_balls": 1.2308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6172, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8951, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.1608, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5892, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5261, "crosses_total": 2.239, "crosses_accurate": 1.0281, "touches": 24.1146, "possession_lost": 6.2864, "dispossessed": 0.5482, "duels_lost": 1.7387, "aerial_won": 0.3303, "aerial_lost": 0.3676, "interceptions": 0.0036, "tackles_won": 0.2423, "tackles": 0.8533, "clearances": 0.9652, "total_contest": 0.4759, "won_contest": 0.2648, "challenges_lost": 0.1477, "fouls": 0.281, "fouls_drawn": 0.3319, "blocks": 0.1296, "big_chances_created": 0.5997, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7185, "total_progression": 16.967, "progressive_carries": 0.5236, "shots_off_target": 0.3315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.438, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.75 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5456, "expected_assists": 0.0713, "assist_rate": 0.0674, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0374, "goal_rate": 0.0556, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1479, "total_shots": 0.4829, "rating": 6.7334, "minutes": 29.75, "total_pass": 15.4843, "accurate_pass": 12.6868, "duels_won": 1.7696, "total_long_balls": 1.2308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6172, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8951, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.1608, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5892, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5261, "crosses_total": 2.239, "crosses_accurate": 1.0281, "touches": 24.1146, "possession_lost": 6.2864, "dispossessed": 0.5482, "duels_lost": 1.7387, "aerial_won": 0.3303, "aerial_lost": 0.3676, "interceptions": 0.0036, "tackles_won": 0.2423, "tackles": 0.8533, "clearances": 0.9652, "total_contest": 0.4759, "won_contest": 0.2648, "challenges_lost": 0.1477, "fouls": 0.281, "fouls_drawn": 0.3319, "blocks": 0.1296, "big_chances_created": 0.5997, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7185, "total_progression": 16.967, "progressive_carries": 0.5236, "shots_off_target": 0.3315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.438, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.75, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.34, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.438, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5456, "expected_assists": 0.0713, "assist_rate": 0.0674, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0374, "goal_rate": 0.0556, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1479, "total_shots": 0.4829, "rating": 6.7334, "minutes": 29.75, "total_pass": 15.4843, "accurate_pass": 12.6868, "duels_won": 1.7696, "total_long_balls": 1.2308, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6172, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8951, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.1608, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5892, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5261, "crosses_total": 2.239, "crosses_accurate": 1.0281, "touches": 24.1146, "possession_lost": 6.2864, "dispossessed": 0.5482, "duels_lost": 1.7387, "aerial_won": 0.3303, "aerial_lost": 0.3676, "interceptions": 0.0036, "tackles_won": 0.2423, "tackles": 0.8533, "clearances": 0.9652, "total_contest": 0.4759, "won_contest": 0.2648, "challenges_lost": 0.1477, "fouls": 0.281, "fouls_drawn": 0.3319, "blocks": 0.1296, "big_chances_created": 0.5997, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.7185, "total_progression": 16.967, "progressive_carries": 0.5236, "shots_off_target": 0.3315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.438, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.75, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.34, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3510, "fifa_rank": 2401.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } } ] }, "Diego López": { "player_id": 998950, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 172, "market_value": 9600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.087, "goal_rate": 0.0724, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0657, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6539, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0315, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.34, 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"assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1358, "expected_assists": 0.0503, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083539, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0115, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083476, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083255, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Girona FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083270, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Mallorca", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0037, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083132, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0653, "expected_assists": 0.1156, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083684, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083627, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0586, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3167, "combined_rank_score": 1133.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 692.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7088, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 1575.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6539, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Diego López", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jack Clarke", "ranking": 3162 }, { "player_name": "Vitor Reis", "ranking": 3163 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Fernández", "ranking": 3164 }, { "player_name": "Žan Vipotnik", "ranking": 3165 }, { "player_name": "Mykhailo Mudryk", "ranking": 3166 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Taty Castellanos", "ranking": 3168 }, { "player_name": "Timothy Castagne", "ranking": 3169 }, { "player_name": "Edson Álvarez", "ranking": 3170 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Trapp", "ranking": 3171 }, { "player_name": "Sean Longstaff", "ranking": 3172 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.0639, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0066 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0025 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0024 } ], "others": 0.004, "total": 0.0519, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.751197, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.323804 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.134077 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.100176 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.051609 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.049056 } ], "others_margin": 0.08064 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3832924962043762, "model_output": 0.3833, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1193 }, { "name": 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0693 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0174 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0, "total": 6.7231, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.069296 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.017427 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.011593 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.009669 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.009518 } ], "others_margin": -4.5e-05 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9994, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0967, "goals": 0.0797, "goal_rate": 0.0797, "shots_on_target": 0.394, "total_shots": 1.0171, "expected_assists": 0.0519, "key_pass": 0.3831, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 21.4, "total_pass": 4.5144, "accurate_pass": 3.1633, "duels_won": 1.3563, "total_long_balls": 0.0611, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0611, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2109, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2498, "crosses_total": 0.5058, "crosses_accurate": 0.0894, "touches": 10.803, "possession_lost": 3.907, "dispossessed": 0.8008, "duels_lost": 2.0564, "aerial_lost": 0.2166, "total_contest": 1.1993, "won_contest": 0.4797, "ball_recovery": 1.142, "challenges_lost": 0.1037, "fouls": 0.2157, "fouls_drawn": 0.393, "assists": 0.0142, "assist_rate": 0.0142, "interceptions": 0.1514, "tackles_won": 0.2498, "tackles": 0.2498, "clearances": 0.0994, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1617, "big_chances_missed": 0.0196, "xgot": 0.1002, "offsides": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 3.0591, "total_progression": 24.8085, "progressive_carries": 1.3212, "shots_off_target": 0.6231 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7500000, "quality_factor": 0.4927, "boost_factor": 0.9994, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.4 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1153, "goals": 0.095, "goal_rate": 0.095, "shots_on_target": 0.4697, "total_shots": 1.2125, "expected_assists": 0.0619, "key_pass": 0.4567, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 5.3816, "accurate_pass": 3.771, "duels_won": 1.6168, "total_long_balls": 0.0728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8277, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 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"prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9994, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0967, "goals": 0.0797, "goal_rate": 0.0797, "shots_on_target": 0.394, "total_shots": 1.0171, "expected_assists": 0.0519, "key_pass": 0.3831, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 21.4, "total_pass": 4.5144, "accurate_pass": 3.1633, "duels_won": 1.3563, "total_long_balls": 0.0611, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0611, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2109, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2498, "crosses_total": 0.5058, "crosses_accurate": 0.0894, "touches": 10.803, "possession_lost": 3.907, "dispossessed": 0.8008, "duels_lost": 2.0564, "aerial_lost": 0.2166, "total_contest": 1.1993, "won_contest": 0.4797, "ball_recovery": 1.142, "challenges_lost": 0.1037, "fouls": 0.2157, "fouls_drawn": 0.393, "assists": 0.0142, "assist_rate": 0.0142, "interceptions": 0.1514, "tackles_won": 0.2498, "tackles": 0.2498, "clearances": 0.0994, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1617, "big_chances_missed": 0.0196, "xgot": 0.1002, "offsides": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 3.0591, "total_progression": 24.8085, "progressive_carries": 1.3212, "shots_off_target": 0.6231 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7500000, "quality_factor": 0.4927, "boost_factor": 0.9994, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.4 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1153, "goals": 0.095, "goal_rate": 0.095, "shots_on_target": 0.4697, "total_shots": 1.2125, "expected_assists": 0.0619, "key_pass": 0.4567, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 5.3816, "accurate_pass": 3.771, "duels_won": 1.6168, "total_long_balls": 0.0728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8277, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.682, "crosses_total": 0.603, "crosses_accurate": 0.1066, "touches": 12.8783, "possession_lost": 4.6575, "dispossessed": 0.8008, "duels_lost": 2.4514, "aerial_lost": 0.2166, "total_contest": 1.4297, "won_contest": 0.5719, "ball_recovery": 1.3614, "challenges_lost": 0.1037, "fouls": 0.2571, "fouls_drawn": 0.4685, "assists": 0.0169, "assist_rate": 0.0169, "interceptions": 0.1805, "tackles_won": 0.2978, "tackles": 0.2978, "clearances": 0.1185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1928, "big_chances_missed": 0.0234, "xgot": 0.1194, "offsides": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 3.6468, "total_progression": 29.5742, "progressive_carries": 1.575, "shots_off_target": 0.7428, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.51, "projection_minutes": 21.4, "minutes_scale": 1.1921, "appearance_probability": 0.569 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1153, "goals": 0.095, "goal_rate": 0.095, "shots_on_target": 0.4697, "total_shots": 1.2125, "expected_assists": 0.0619, "key_pass": 0.4567, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 5.3816, "accurate_pass": 3.771, "duels_won": 1.6168, "total_long_balls": 0.0728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8277, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.682, "crosses_total": 0.603, "crosses_accurate": 0.1066, "touches": 12.8783, "possession_lost": 4.6575, "dispossessed": 0.8008, "duels_lost": 2.4514, "aerial_lost": 0.2166, "total_contest": 1.4297, "won_contest": 0.5719, "ball_recovery": 1.3614, "challenges_lost": 0.1037, "fouls": 0.2571, "fouls_drawn": 0.4685, "assists": 0.0169, "assist_rate": 0.0169, "interceptions": 0.1805, "tackles_won": 0.2978, "tackles": 0.2978, "clearances": 0.1185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1928, "big_chances_missed": 0.0234, "xgot": 0.1194, "offsides": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 3.6468, "total_progression": 29.5742, "progressive_carries": 1.575, "shots_off_target": 0.7428, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.15 (squad xG sum 0.8983, xG scale 1.2813, xA scale 1.2813, team xA 0.78 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1477, "goal_rate": 0.095, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4697, "total_shots": 1.2125, "expected_assists": 0.0793, "key_pass": 0.4567, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 5.3816, "accurate_pass": 3.771, "duels_won": 1.6168, "total_long_balls": 0.0728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8277, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.682, "crosses_total": 0.603, "crosses_accurate": 0.1066, "touches": 12.8783, "possession_lost": 4.6575, "dispossessed": 0.8008, "duels_lost": 2.4514, "aerial_lost": 0.2166, "total_contest": 1.4297, "won_contest": 0.5719, "ball_recovery": 1.3614, "challenges_lost": 0.1037, "fouls": 0.2571, "fouls_drawn": 0.4685, "assist_rate": 0.0169, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1805, "tackles_won": 0.2978, "tackles": 0.2978, "clearances": 0.1185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1928, "big_chances_missed": 0.0234, "xgot": 0.153, "offsides": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 3.6468, "total_progression": 29.5742, "progressive_carries": 1.575, "shots_off_target": 0.7428, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.34, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8772, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.151, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8983, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6123, "team_expected_assists": 0.7846, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6817, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2813, "xa_scale": 1.2813, "opponent_lambda": 1.422, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.569 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1153, "after": 0.1477 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0619, "after": 0.0793 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1477, "goal_rate": 0.095, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4697, "total_shots": 1.2125, "expected_assists": 0.0793, "key_pass": 0.4567, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 5.3816, "accurate_pass": 3.771, "duels_won": 1.6168, "total_long_balls": 0.0728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8277, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.682, "crosses_total": 0.603, "crosses_accurate": 0.1066, "touches": 12.8783, "possession_lost": 4.6575, "dispossessed": 0.8008, "duels_lost": 2.4514, "aerial_lost": 0.2166, "total_contest": 1.4297, "won_contest": 0.5719, "ball_recovery": 1.3614, "challenges_lost": 0.1037, "fouls": 0.2571, "fouls_drawn": 0.4685, "assist_rate": 0.0169, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1805, "tackles_won": 0.2978, "tackles": 0.2978, "clearances": 0.1185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1928, "big_chances_missed": 0.0234, "xgot": 0.153, "offsides": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 3.6468, "total_progression": 29.5742, "progressive_carries": 1.575, "shots_off_target": 0.7428, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.34, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8772, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3237, "fifa_rank": 1787.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1477, "goal_rate": 0.095, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4697, "total_shots": 1.2125, "expected_assists": 0.0793, "key_pass": 0.4567, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 5.3816, "accurate_pass": 3.771, "duels_won": 1.6168, "total_long_balls": 0.0728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8277, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.682, "crosses_total": 0.603, "crosses_accurate": 0.1066, "touches": 12.8783, "possession_lost": 4.6575, "dispossessed": 0.8008, "duels_lost": 2.4514, "aerial_lost": 0.2166, "total_contest": 1.4297, "won_contest": 0.5719, "ball_recovery": 1.3614, "challenges_lost": 0.1037, "fouls": 0.2571, "fouls_drawn": 0.4685, "assist_rate": 0.0169, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1805, "tackles_won": 0.2978, "tackles": 0.2978, "clearances": 0.1185, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1928, "big_chances_missed": 0.0234, "xgot": 0.153, "offsides": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 3.6468, "total_progression": 29.5742, "progressive_carries": 1.575, "shots_off_target": 0.7428, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.34, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0781, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8772, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0781, "scorer_weight": 0.0737, "squad_weight_total": 1.0966, "weight_share": 0.0672, "finishing_factor": 0.8772, "appearance_weight": 0.569, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1477, "goal_rate": 0.095, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4697, "total_shots": 1.2125, "expected_assists": 0.0793, "key_pass": 0.4567, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 25.51, "total_pass": 5.3816, "accurate_pass": 3.771, "duels_won": 1.6168, "total_long_balls": 0.0728, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8277, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 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"expected_assists": 0.006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 36, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0627, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14025125, "match_date": "2026-02-01", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0958, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025181, "match_date": "2025-09-28", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0238, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025172, "match_date": "2025-09-21", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1714, "expected_assists": 0.0566, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 26, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025136, "match_date": "2025-09-13", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14147154, "match_date": "2025-08-25", 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"contribution": -0.0547 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0296 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0288 } ], "others": -0.0278, "total": 0.5026, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.473153 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.067455 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.054675 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.029634 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.028763 } ], "others_margin": -0.027909 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.675353050231934, "model_output": 6.6754, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0157, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3617, "expected_assists": 0.0279, "assists": 0.029, "assist_rate": 0.029, "expected_goals": 0.0493, "goals": 0.0535, "goal_rate": 0.0535, "shots_on_target": 0.2275, "total_shots": 0.5105, "rating": 6.6754, "minutes": 22.59, "total_pass": 16.4158, "accurate_pass": 13.753, "duels_won": 0.5613, "total_long_balls": 1.2909, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5525, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4718, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.153, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.9441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5999, "crosses_total": 0.3511, "crosses_accurate": 0.117, "touches": 19.5043, "possession_lost": 3.5134, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4259, "aerial_won": 0.1377, "aerial_lost": 0.117, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.324, "tackles": 0.324, "clearances": 0.0995, 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0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0164, "ball_carries": 6.7774, "total_progression": 14.8172, "progressive_carries": 0.1973, "shots_off_target": 0.2853, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.15 (squad xG sum 0.8983, xG scale 1.2813, xA scale 1.2813, team xA 0.78 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3647, "expected_assists": 0.036, "assist_rate": 0.0292, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0637, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2294, "total_shots": 0.5147, "rating": 6.6754, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 16.552, "accurate_pass": 13.8671, "duels_won": 0.566, "total_long_balls": 1.3016, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5571, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5006, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1792, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0515, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6879, "crosses_total": 0.354, "crosses_accurate": 0.118, "touches": 19.6662, "possession_lost": 3.5426, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4294, "aerial_won": 0.1388, "aerial_lost": 0.117, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3267, "tackles": 0.3267, "clearances": 0.1003, "total_contest": 0.3114, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1003, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.021, "ball_carries": 6.7774, "total_progression": 14.8172, "progressive_carries": 0.1973, "shots_off_target": 0.2853, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.34, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0421, "creation_factor": 1.0141 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.151, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8983, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6123, "team_expected_assists": 0.7846, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6817, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2813, "xa_scale": 1.2813, "opponent_lambda": 1.422, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.535 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0497, "after": 0.0637 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0281, "after": 0.036 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3647, "expected_assists": 0.036, "assist_rate": 0.0292, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0637, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2294, "total_shots": 0.5147, "rating": 6.6754, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 16.552, "accurate_pass": 13.8671, "duels_won": 0.566, "total_long_balls": 1.3016, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5571, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5006, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1792, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0515, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6879, "crosses_total": 0.354, "crosses_accurate": 0.118, "touches": 19.6662, "possession_lost": 3.5426, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4294, "aerial_won": 0.1388, "aerial_lost": 0.117, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3267, "tackles": 0.3267, "clearances": 0.1003, "total_contest": 0.3114, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1003, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.021, "ball_carries": 6.7774, "total_progression": 14.8172, "progressive_carries": 0.1973, "shots_off_target": 0.2853, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.34, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0421, "creation_factor": 1.0141, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3214, "fifa_rank": 1426.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3647, "expected_assists": 0.036, "assist_rate": 0.0292, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0637, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2294, "total_shots": 0.5147, "rating": 6.6754, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 16.552, "accurate_pass": 13.8671, "duels_won": 0.566, "total_long_balls": 1.3016, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5571, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5006, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1792, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0515, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6879, "crosses_total": 0.354, "crosses_accurate": 0.118, "touches": 19.6662, "possession_lost": 3.5426, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4294, "aerial_won": 0.1388, "aerial_lost": 0.117, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3267, "tackles": 0.3267, "clearances": 0.1003, "total_contest": 0.3114, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1003, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.021, "ball_carries": 6.7774, "total_progression": 14.8172, "progressive_carries": 0.1973, "shots_off_target": 0.2853, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.34, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.033, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0421, "creation_factor": 1.0141, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.033, "scorer_weight": 0.0355, "squad_weight_total": 1.0966, "weight_share": 0.0324, "finishing_factor": 1.0421, "appearance_weight": 0.535, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3647, "expected_assists": 0.036, "assist_rate": 0.0292, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0637, "goal_rate": 0.0539, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2294, "total_shots": 0.5147, "rating": 6.6754, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 16.552, "accurate_pass": 13.8671, "duels_won": 0.566, "total_long_balls": 1.3016, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5571, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5006, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1792, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0515, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6879, "crosses_total": 0.354, "crosses_accurate": 0.118, "touches": 19.6662, "possession_lost": 3.5426, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4294, "aerial_won": 0.1388, "aerial_lost": 0.117, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3267, "tackles": 0.3267, "clearances": 0.1003, "total_contest": 0.3114, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1003, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.021, "ball_carries": 6.7774, "total_progression": 14.8172, "progressive_carries": 0.1973, "shots_off_target": 0.2853, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.34, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.033, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0189, "finishing_factor": 1.0421, "creation_factor": 1.0141, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0189, "provider_weight": 0.0195, "squad_weight_total": 0.8566, "weight_share": 0.0228, "creation_factor": 1.0141, "appearance_weight": 0.535, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.15, "expected_assists": 0.78, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 420, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.81, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Sergio Canales", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Pablo Maffeo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.487, "xg_contribution": 0.1084, "xg_multiplier": 1.0099, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Maffeo", "role": "RB", "market_value": 2900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.513 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Canales (LW) is evenly matched against Pablo Maffeo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.108 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Yassir Zabiri", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 9800000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.52, "defenders": [ "Mouctar Diakhaby", "Justin De Haas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.466, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3972, "xg_multiplier": 0.9667, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mouctar Diakhaby", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Justin De Haas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yassir Zabiri (ST) is evenly matched against Mouctar Diakhaby and Justin De Haas in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.397 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Iñigo Vicente", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 6600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.482, "defenders": [ "Mouctar Diakhaby", "Justin De Haas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.466, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0635, "xg_multiplier": 0.9178, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mouctar Diakhaby", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Justin De Haas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iñigo Vicente (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Mouctar Diakhaby and Justin De Haas in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.064 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pablo García", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 8199999, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.501, "defenders": [ "Mouctar Diakhaby", "Justin De Haas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.466, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1573, "xg_multiplier": 0.9248, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mouctar Diakhaby", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Justin De Haas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo García (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Mouctar Diakhaby and Justin De Haas in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.157 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Iván Martín", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 4600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.457, "defenders": [ "Pepelu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.49, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.357, "xg_contribution": 0.0381, "xg_multiplier": 0.9372, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pepelu", "role": "CM", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.643 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iván Martín (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Pepelu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.038 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Matteo Prati", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 5000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.462, "defenders": [ "Pepelu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.49, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "xg_contribution": 0.0288, "xg_multiplier": 0.9645, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pepelu", "role": "CM", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.624 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matteo Prati (CDM) is evenly matched against Pepelu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.029 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Hugo Duro", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 11600000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.541, "defenders": [ "Jorge Salinas", "Jeanuël Belocian" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.53, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2741, "xg_multiplier": 0.9601, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jorge Salinas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jeanuël Belocian", "role": "CB", "market_value": 12900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hugo Duro (ST) is evenly matched against Jorge Salinas and Jeanuël Belocian in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.274 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Javier Guerra", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Alvaro Mantilla" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.602, "xg_contribution": 0.1909, "xg_multiplier": 1.2091, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alvaro Mantilla", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.398 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javier Guerra (LM) has a clear attacking advantage against Alvaro Mantilla in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €1M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.21 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.191 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Ryunosuke Sato", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Pablo Ramón" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.4, "xg_contribution": 0.08, "xg_multiplier": 0.9118, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Ramón", "role": "LB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.6 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ryunosuke Sato (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Pablo Ramón in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.080 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pepelu", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Iván Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.457, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.493, "xg_contribution": 0.0353, "xg_multiplier": 1.0628, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iván Martín", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.507 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pepelu (CM) is slightly favored against Iván Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Guido Rodríguez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 4200000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.452, "defenders": [ "Iván Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.457, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.474, "xg_contribution": 0.0589, "xg_multiplier": 1.0351, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iván Martín", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.526 } ], "duel_analysis": "Guido Rodríguez (CM) is evenly matched against Iván Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Aaron Mayol", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 47000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Iván Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.457, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.457, "xg_contribution": 0.0543, "xg_multiplier": 1.0097, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iván Martín", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.543 } ], "duel_analysis": "Aaron Mayol (CM) is evenly matched against Iván Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.054 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.453, "away_midfield_power": 0.551, "home_creative_power": 0.385, "away_creative_power": 0.457, "home_defensive_power": 0.385, "away_defensive_power": 0.479, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.451, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Sergio Canales", "Iván Martín", "Matteo Prati" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Pepelu", "Aaron Mayol", "Guido Rodríguez", "Javier Guerra", "Ryunosuke Sato" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.2, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Matteo Prati vs Javier Guerra", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.982, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.017 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.07, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "formation_verdict": "4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition." }, "home_lambda": 1.422, "away_lambda": 1.151, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Sergio Canales": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Maffeo", "Aaron Mayol" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yassir Zabiri": { "opponents": [ "Mouctar Diakhaby", "Justin De Haas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iñigo Vicente": { "opponents": [ "Mouctar Diakhaby", "Justin De Haas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pablo García": { "opponents": [ "Mouctar Diakhaby", "Justin De Haas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iván Martín": { "opponents": [ "Pepelu", "Guido Rodríguez", "Aaron Mayol", "Javier Guerra" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Matteo Prati": { "opponents": [ "Pepelu", "Guido Rodríguez", "Ryunosuke Sato" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jorge Salinas": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Duro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jeanuël Belocian": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Duro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alvaro Mantilla": { "opponents": [ "Javier Guerra" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pablo Ramón": { "opponents": [ "Ryunosuke Sato" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Julen Agirrezabala": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Duro", "Javier Guerra" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Pablo Maffeo": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mouctar Diakhaby": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri", "Iñigo Vicente", "Pablo García" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Justin De Haas": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri", "Iñigo Vicente", "Pablo García" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pepelu": { "opponents": [ "Iván Martín", "Matteo Prati" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hugo Duro": { "opponents": [ "Jorge Salinas", "Jeanuël Belocian" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Javier Guerra": { "opponents": [ "Alvaro Mantilla", "Iván Martín" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ryunosuke Sato": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ramón", "Matteo Prati" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Guido Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Iván Martín", "Matteo Prati" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Aaron Mayol": { "opponents": [ "Iván Martín", "Sergio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Stole Dimitrievski": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri", "Pablo García" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "José Luis Gayà": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Vicente" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Matteo Prati vs Javier Guerra will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.79, Away: 0.69. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9768, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.047, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1205, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.005, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9855, "home_midfield_factor": 0.982, "away_midfield_factor": 1.017, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4798, "away_avg_quality": 0.4868, "avg_quality_gap": -0.007, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.0825, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.1778, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.2563, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0267, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7933, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9325 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.982, "result": 0.9157 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.07, "result": 0.9798 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.1268 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0455, "result": 1.178 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.1906 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.005, "result": 1.1965 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.047, "result": 1.2435 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.2435, "result": 1.2435, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0267, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.2435, "result": 1.2435 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.2435 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.464 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.464 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.464, "result": 1.464, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9714, "pre": 1.464, "result": 1.4221, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.422 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.422 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.422, "result": 1.422, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.422 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.6935, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8576 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.017, "result": 0.8722 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.96, "result": 0.8373 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8373 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0206, "result": 0.8546 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9768, "result": 0.8347 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9855, "result": 0.8226 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1205, "result": 0.9431 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9431, "result": 0.9431, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0267, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 0.9431, "result": 0.9431 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9431 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1765, "result": 1.1195 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.1195 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.1195, "result": 1.119, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0286, "pre": 1.119, "result": 1.151, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.151 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.151 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.151, "result": 1.151, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.151 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1765, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.422, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.151, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.464, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.1195, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.422, "final_away_lambda": 1.151 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 16, "opponent_position": 19, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0455, "attack_index": 1.074, "defense_concede_index": 1.033, "form_multiplier": 1.014, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.61, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.55, "team_ppg": 1.17, "opponent_ppg": 0.94 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 19, "opponent_position": 16, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0206, "attack_index": 0.733, "defense_concede_index": 1.444, "form_multiplier": 0.986, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.1, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 2.17, "team_ppg": 0.94, "opponent_ppg": 1.17 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Racing Club vs Valencia. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-4-2 (duel lambdas: Home 1.464, Away 1.119). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.422, Away 1.151 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.422, "away_lambda": 1.151, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.464, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.119 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-11T13:32:23Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }