{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261011", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "5-4-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "3-1", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0754, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Real Madrid", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1183, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0754 }, { "score": "4-1", "probability": 0.0667 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0639 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0559 }, { "score": "3-2", "probability": 0.0508 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0077, "0-1": 0.0101, "0-2": 0.0069, "0-3": 0.0031, "0-4": 0.001, "1-0": 0.0267, "1-1": 0.0363, "1-2": 0.0244, "1-3": 0.0109, "1-4": 0.0037, "1-5": 0.001, "2-0": 0.0474, "2-1": 0.0639, "2-2": 0.0431, "2-3": 0.0194, "2-4": 0.0065, "2-5": 0.0018, "3-0": 0.0559, "3-1": 0.0754, "3-2": 0.0508, "3-3": 0.0228, "3-4": 0.0077, "3-5": 0.0021, "4-0": 0.0495, "4-1": 0.0667, "4-2": 0.045, "4-3": 0.0202, "4-4": 0.0068, "4-5": 0.0018, "5-0": 0.035, "5-1": 0.0472, "5-2": 0.0318, "5-3": 0.0143, "5-4": 0.0048, "5-5": 0.0013, "6-0": 0.0206, "6-1": 0.0278, "6-2": 0.0188, "6-3": 0.0084, "6-4": 0.0028, "6-5": 0.0008, "7-0": 0.0104, "7-1": 0.0141, "7-2": 0.0095, "7-3": 0.0043, "7-4": 0.0014, "8-0": 0.0046, "8-1": 0.0062, "8-2": 0.0042, "8-3": 0.0019, "8-4": 0.0006, "9-0": 0.0018, "9-1": 0.0024, "9-2": 0.0016, "9-3": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.7788, "draw": 0.1183, "away_win": 0.1029 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.8649, "under_2_5_goals": 0.1351, "btts_yes": 0.7188, "btts_no": 0.2812, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2598, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0292 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.8, "MCR": 7.02, "ATR": 7.03, "GK": 7.24 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.83, "MCR": 7.02, "ATR": 6.84, "GK": 6.4 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Real Madrid vs Villarreal. Most likely scoreline: 3-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 7 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Jude Bellingham, Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, Georges Mikautadze", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Jude Bellingham vs Alberto Moleiro). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.76, Away: 1.13. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.73, "home_lambda": 3.538, "away_lambda": 1.348, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.7788, "draw": 0.1183, "away_win": 0.1029 }, "favorite": "Real Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7788, "fair_spread": 2.19, "fair_total": 4.886, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Madrid", "estimate": 3.538, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 1.348, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.8649, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.7188, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Madrid", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2598, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0292, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)", "estimate": 1.003, "probability": 0.6332, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.4447, "probability": 0.359, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Arda Güler (Real Madrid)", "estimate": 0.4467, "probability": 0.3603, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.2267, "probability": 0.2028, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 4.886, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 938, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.4, "possession_home_pct": 51.6, "possession_away_pct": 48.4, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Real Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7788, "script": "Real Madrid is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +2.19 goals and fair total 4.89.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Villarreal must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Real Madrid lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Madrid chance creation leans on Kylian Mbappé against Renato Veiga, Santiago Mouriño in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Real Madrid: starters carry the main goal usage through Jude Bellingham, Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior; bench watchlist: Rodrygo, Endrick.", "Villarreal: starters carry the main goal usage through Georges Mikautadze; bench watchlist: Nathan-Dylan Saliba, Tani Oluwaseyi, Nicolas Pépé.", "Assist usage should flow through Trent Alexander-Arnold, Kylian Mbappé, Alberto Moleiro; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Real Madrid tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 2.44 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Villarreal is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Real Madrid.", "Villarreal wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Real Madrid": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Thibaut Courtois": { "player_id": 70988, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 200, "market_value": 14500000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.028, "rating": 7.237, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 36, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 4.6711, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "goalsAgainst": 0.67, "shotsOnTargetAgainst": 2.3333, "cleanSheets": 0.3333, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "offsides": 0, "yellowCards": 0.0, "redCards": 0.0, "penaltySave": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "savePct": 71.4, "cleanSheetPct": 33.3, "minutesPct": 100.0, "pointsPerMatch": 3.0, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 2.67, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5172, "shots_faced": 12.8, "expected_saves": 3.13, "high_pressure_saves": 1.08, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze, Alberto Moleiro", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416339.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.8708 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416342.0, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 24, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.6824 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416331.0, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 31, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 0.3547 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416315.0, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.0792 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312.0, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "ball_recovery": 3, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0461 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051.0, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 3, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.1261 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416306.0, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.5284 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 79, "combined_rank_score": 85.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 160.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2909, "sofascore_appearances": 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"xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "kilometersCovered", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "gk_coverage", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 7, "data_confidence": 0.718, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0221, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 7 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Madrid, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0274, "rating": 7.237, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 35, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 4.57, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 4, "trained_at": "2026-09-29T10:01:45.250339+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 593, "players": 135, "rows": 3738 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2208, "rating": 8.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1877, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1595, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1356, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1152, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-26", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.098, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0833, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 7.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "save_contribution": 3.3276, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.0831, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.1356, "possessionLostCtrl": 4.9733, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.1356, "accurateLongBalls": 3.3008 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.03007435798645, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0523 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0514 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0445 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9861, "items": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.0561 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0399 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0383 }, { 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0.0692 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0549 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "contribution": -0.0319 } ], "others": 0.0768, "total": 1.128, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.388283, "item_margins": [ { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.199177 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.14722 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.069721 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.051997 }, { "name": "shot_waste_rate", "margin": -0.029863 } ], "others_margin": 0.070438 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.918702125549316, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0724 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0438 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.815, "items": [ { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.124 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", 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"errorLeadToAGoal", "importance": 0.0306 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.476, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.055 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.042 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0148 } ], "others": -0.0389, "total": 0.3241, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.476045, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.055034 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.042004 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.022715 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.021523 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.014795 } ], "others_margin": -0.038912 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.838479995727539, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": 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minutesPlayed is the player's historical average." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.1002, quality 0.834)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8385, "minutes": 52, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.066, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, 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0.0738 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0395 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.039 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0294 } ], "others": -0.0738, "total": 0.4838, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.388283, "item_margins": [ { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.27772 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.134181 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.06953 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.068822 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.051443 } ], "others_margin": -0.142046 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.68571662902832, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0847 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0724 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0438 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.815, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", 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"margin": 0.093745 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.069557 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.065407 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.056963 } ], "others_margin": 0.033359 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.1962103843688965, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1105 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0476 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0444 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0409 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6782, "items": [ { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.1446 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.1391 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1019 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.076 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0638 } ], "others": 0.1964, "total": 1.1962, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.388283, "item_margins": [ { "name": "ballCarriesCount", 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"goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0242, "scorer_weight": 0.0299, "squad_weight_total": 1.3104, "weight_share": 0.0228, "finishing_factor": 1.1923, "appearance_weight": 0.338, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Georges Mikautadze", "weight": 0.3558, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3558, "runner_up": "Alberto Moleiro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3304 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0743, "goal_rate": 0.0827, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0332, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.941, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 3.7514, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "yellowCards": 0.3704, "redCards": 0.0, "ownGoals": 0.0, "shotAccuracy": 71.4, "shotConversion": 0.14, "minutesPct": 90.4, "pointsPerMatch": 0.67, "netGoalDifferencePer90": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.338, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.197, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0242, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.011, "finishing_factor": 1.1923, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.011, "provider_weight": 0.009, "squad_weight_total": 1.0247, "weight_share": 0.0088, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.338, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.2034, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2034, "runner_up": "Ilias Akhomach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1848, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Georges Mikautadze" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.35, "expected_assists": 1.08, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 500, "interceptions": 4, "tackles": 5, "avg_rating": 6.86, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Federico Valverde", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 87000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.887, "defenders": [ "Logan Costa" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.575, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.508, "xg_contribution": 0.1138, "xg_multiplier": 1.1299, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Logan Costa", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.492 } ], "duel_analysis": "Federico Valverde (LWB) is slightly favored against Logan Costa in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€87M vs €15M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.13 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.114 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Arda Güler", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 87000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.887, "defenders": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.454, "xg_contribution": 0.2298, "xg_multiplier": 1.0497, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "role": "CM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.546 } ], "duel_analysis": "Arda Güler (CM) is evenly matched against Alberto Moleiro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. The quality gap is significant (€87M vs €54M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.230 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jude Bellingham", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 151000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.501, "xg_contribution": 0.2567, "xg_multiplier": 1.1194, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "role": "CM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.499 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jude Bellingham (CM) is slightly favored against Alberto Moleiro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€151M vs €54M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.12 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.257 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 73000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.875, "defenders": [ "Carlos Romero" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.542, "xg_contribution": 0.1317, "xg_multiplier": 1.1797, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Romero", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.458 } ], "duel_analysis": "Aurélien Tchouaméni (RWB) is slightly favored against Carlos Romero in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. The quality gap is significant (€73M vs €24M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.18 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.132 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Vinícius Júnior", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 146000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.71, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.451, "xg_contribution": 0.3321, "xg_multiplier": 1.0008, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.549 } ], "duel_analysis": "Vinícius Júnior (SS) is evenly matched against Renato Veiga in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. The quality gap is significant (€146M vs €29M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.332 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Yan Diomande", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 99000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.893, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.71, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.464, "xg_contribution": 0.1642, "xg_multiplier": 1.0201, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.536 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yan Diomande (SS) is evenly matched against Renato Veiga in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. The quality gap is significant (€99M vs €29M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.164 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Kylian Mbappé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 212000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga", "Santiago Mouriño" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.668, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.245, "xg_contribution": 0.5297, "xg_multiplier": 1.066, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.755 }, { "player": "Santiago Mouriño", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.755 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kylian Mbappé (ST) is slightly favored against Renato Veiga and Santiago Mouriño in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€212M vs €24M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.530 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Carlos Romero", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.875, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.298, "xg_contribution": 0.0794, "xg_multiplier": 0.8203, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 73000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.702 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Romero (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Aurélien Tchouaméni in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €73M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.82 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.079 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Logan Costa", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 14600000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.575, "defenders": [ "Federico Valverde" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.887, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.332, "xg_contribution": 0.0533, "xg_multiplier": 0.8701, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Federico Valverde", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 87000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.668 } ], "duel_analysis": "Logan Costa (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Federico Valverde in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€15M vs €87M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.053 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Tajon Buchanan", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 13000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.557, "defenders": [ "Dean Huijsen" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.864, "duel_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.23, "xg_contribution": 0.1253, "xg_multiplier": 0.7212, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dean Huijsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.77 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tajon Buchanan (LM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dean Huijsen in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€13M vs €66M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.72 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.125 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Alberto Moleiro", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "Arda Güler" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.887, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.386, "xg_contribution": 0.2179, "xg_multiplier": 0.9503, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Arda Güler", "role": "CM", "market_value": 87000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.614 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alberto Moleiro (CM) is evenly matched against Arda Güler in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €87M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.218 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Pape Gueye", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "Arda Güler" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.887, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.421, "xg_contribution": 0.1924, "xg_multiplier": 1.0019, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Arda Güler", "role": "CM", "market_value": 87000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.579 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pape Gueye (CM) is evenly matched against Arda Güler in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. The quality gap is significant (€39M vs €87M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.192 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ilias Akhomach", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 11100000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.535, "defenders": [ "Dean Huijsen" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.864, "duel_zone": "RM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.208, "xg_contribution": 0.0962, "xg_multiplier": 0.6879, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dean Huijsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.792 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ilias Akhomach (RM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dean Huijsen in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€11M vs €66M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.69 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.096 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Georges Mikautadze", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Trent Alexander-Arnold" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.861, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3667, "xg_multiplier": 0.8305, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dean Huijsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Trent Alexander-Arnold", "role": "CB", "market_value": 62000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Georges Mikautadze (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Dean Huijsen and Trent Alexander-Arnold in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€32M vs €64M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.83 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.367 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.912, "away_midfield_power": 0.701, "home_creative_power": 0.888, "away_creative_power": 0.719, "home_defensive_power": 0.749, "away_defensive_power": 0.659, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.565, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Jude Bellingham", "Arda Güler", "Federico Valverde", "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Alberto Moleiro", "Pape Gueye", "Tajon Buchanan", "Ilias Akhomach" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.6, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.4, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.8, "home_throughball_threat": 3.3, "away_throughball_threat": 2.8, "key_personal_duel": "Jude Bellingham vs Alberto Moleiro", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.025, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.984 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "5-4-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 3.538, "away_lambda": 1.348, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Federico Valverde": { "opponents": [ "Logan Costa", "Tajon Buchanan" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Arda Güler": { "opponents": [ "Alberto Moleiro", "Pape Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jude Bellingham": { "opponents": [ "Alberto Moleiro", "Pape Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Aurélien Tchouaméni": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Romero", "Ilias Akhomach" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Vinícius Júnior": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yan Diomande": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kylian Mbappé": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga", "Santiago Mouriño" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Dean Huijsen": { "opponents": [ "Tajon Buchanan", "Ilias Akhomach", "Georges Mikautadze" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Trent Alexander-Arnold": { "opponents": [ "Georges Mikautadze" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Thibaut Courtois": { "opponents": [ "Georges Mikautadze", "Alberto Moleiro" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Marc Cucurella": { "opponents": [ "Georges Mikautadze" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Logan Costa": { "opponents": [ "Federico Valverde" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Alberto Moleiro": { "opponents": [ "Arda Güler", "Jude Bellingham" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Carlos Romero": { "opponents": [ "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Renato Veiga": { "opponents": [ "Vinícius Júnior", "Yan Diomande", "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Santiago Mouriño": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Tajon Buchanan": { "opponents": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Federico Valverde" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pape Gueye": { "opponents": [ "Arda Güler", "Jude Bellingham" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ilias Akhomach": { "opponents": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Georges Mikautadze": { "opponents": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Trent Alexander-Arnold" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Luiz Júnior": { "opponents": [ "Vinícius Júnior", "Yan Diomande" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Pau Navarro": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Jude Bellingham vs Alberto Moleiro). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.76, Away: 1.13. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9644, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9548, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1458, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1336, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9356, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8778, "home_midfield_factor": 1.025, "away_midfield_factor": 0.984, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8819, "away_avg_quality": 0.659, "avg_quality_gap": 0.2229, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.3979, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.3218, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.6932, "elite_count_gap": 9, "combined_quality_gap": 0.5133, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2823, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1643, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1443, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0679, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Real Madrid", "away_squad": "Villarreal", "home_goals_per90": 3.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "away_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.956, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.289, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.5133, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1333, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9587, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 3.369, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.517, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 3.3692, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.5172, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 3.538, "final_away_lambda": 1.348 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 4, "opponent_position": 9, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.3852, "attack_index": 2.079, "defense_concede_index": 1.04, "form_multiplier": 1.046, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 3.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.5, "team_ppg": 2.14, "opponent_ppg": 1.14 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 9, "opponent_position": 4, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0069, "attack_index": 1.126, "defense_concede_index": 0.924, "form_multiplier": 0.954, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.62, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.33, "team_ppg": 1.14, "opponent_ppg": 2.14 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Real Madrid vs Villarreal. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-4-2-1 vs 5-4-1 (duel lambdas: Home 3.369, Away 1.517). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 3.538, Away 1.348 (most likely score 3-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Real Madrid", "away_squad": "Villarreal", "home_goals_per90": 3.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "away_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.956, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.289, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 3.538, "away_lambda": 1.348, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 3.369, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.517 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-09-30T01:05:53Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }