{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Coventry", "away_team": "Newcastle", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261012", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1433, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Newcastle", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.249, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1433 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.1167 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.116 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0933 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0898 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0898, "0-1": 0.1433, "0-2": 0.1167, "0-3": 0.063, "0-4": 0.0255, "0-5": 0.0083, "0-6": 0.0022, "0-7": 0.0005, "1-0": 0.0704, "1-1": 0.116, "1-2": 0.0933, "1-3": 0.0504, "1-4": 0.0204, "1-5": 0.0066, "1-6": 0.0018, "2-0": 0.0285, "2-1": 0.0461, "2-2": 0.0373, "2-3": 0.0201, "2-4": 0.0082, "2-5": 0.0026, "2-6": 0.0007, "3-0": 0.0076, "3-1": 0.0123, "3-2": 0.01, "3-3": 0.0054, "3-4": 0.0022, "3-5": 0.0007, "4-0": 0.0015, "4-1": 0.0025, "4-2": 0.002, "4-3": 0.0011 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.1833, "draw": 0.249, "away_win": 0.5677 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4352, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5648, "btts_yes": 0.4423, "btts_no": 0.5577, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1981, "away_clean_sheet": 0.4493 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.75, "MCR": 6.82, "ATR": 6.68, "GK": 7.09 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.83, "MCR": 6.9, "ATR": 6.77, "GK": 6.87 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Coventry vs Newcastle. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Coventry 1W-1D-8L vs Newcastle over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Yoane Wissa", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Jack Rudoni vs Nico González). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.48, Away: 0.74. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.73, "home_lambda": 0.8, "away_lambda": 1.619, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 1, "away_wins": 8, "draws": 1, "home_multiplier": 0.95, "away_multiplier": 1.05 }, "modal_scoreline": null, "modal_scoreline_probability": null, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.1833, "draw": 0.249, "away_win": 0.5677 }, "favorite": "Newcastle", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5677, "fair_spread": -0.819, "fair_total": 2.419, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Coventry", "estimate": 0.8, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Newcastle", "estimate": 1.619, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4352, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4423, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Coventry", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1981, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Newcastle", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4493, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ephron Mason-Clark (Coventry)", "estimate": 0.1624, "probability": 0.1499, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Yoane Wissa (Newcastle)", "estimate": 0.4431, "probability": 0.358, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jack Rudoni (Coventry)", "estimate": 0.128, "probability": 0.1201, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Lewis Hall (Newcastle)", "estimate": 0.1744, "probability": 0.16, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.419, "expected_total_shots": 23, "expected_total_passes": 756, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.8, "possession_home_pct": 47.8, "possession_away_pct": 52.2, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Newcastle", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5677, "script": "Newcastle is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -0.82 goals and fair total 2.42.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Coventry must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Newcastle lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Newcastle chance creation leans on Yoane Wissa against Ethan Pinnock, Stephen Mfuni in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Coventry: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Sidiki Cherif, Yann Gboho, Liam Kitching.", "Newcastle: starters carry the main goal usage through Yoane Wissa; bench watchlist: Nick Woltemade, Bazoumana Touré, Aladji Bamba.", "Assist usage should flow through Harvey Barnes; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Newcastle tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.21 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Coventry is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Newcastle.", "Coventry wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Coventry": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Ethan Pinnock": { "player_id": 855864, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 194, "market_value": 2800000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7444, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 42, "possession_lost": 6.7149, "dispossessed": 0.0972, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0199, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0152, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.555, "opponent_faced": "Joe Willock", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0197, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0067, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8741, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363869, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 17, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 12, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363642, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0147, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363263, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Coventry City", "opponent": "Manchester 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"league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14024018, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0106, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 29, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 11, "aerial_won": 7, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025126, "match_date": "2025-12-03", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 30, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025163, "match_date": "2025-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 5.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14025127, "match_date": "2025-09-13", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3408, "combined_rank_score": 1388.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 2199.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7444, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ethan Pinnock", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Stefan 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[ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0597, "tackles": 1.3115, "tackles_won": 0.741, "clearances": 6.4879, "aerial_won": 3.0331, "total_shots": 0.5469, "rating": 6.7444, "minutes": 86.89, "total_pass": 24.6542, "accurate_pass": 20.051, "duels_won": 4.5373, "total_long_balls": 4.0773, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0674, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4953, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.8297, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.1589, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2213, "crosses_total": 0.1877, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 42.4813, "possession_lost": 6.7677, "dispossessed": 0.098, "duels_lost": 3.7842, "aerial_lost": 2.642, "total_contest": 0.2748, "won_contest": 0.1153, "ball_recovery": 1.952, "challenges_lost": 0.7252, "fouls": 0.1595, "fouls_drawn": 0.1812, "blocks": 1.9287, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0215, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "shots_on_target": 0.1356, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0164, "ball_carries": 5.1893, "total_progression": 8.4329, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4113 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-12T10:04:30.888503+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1337, "players": 623, "rows": 20487 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2062, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1753, "rating": 5.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.149, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1266, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Leeds 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{ "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0423 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3957, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1543 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1009 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0573 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0421 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0297 } ], "others": -0.0679, "total": 1.3115, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.333417, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.104867 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.067282 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.040351 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.030679 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.021783 } ], "others_margin": -0.050589 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.7410488724708557, "model_output": 0.741, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0135, quality 0.595)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1175, "goals": 0.1515, "goal_rate": 0.1515, "shots_on_target": 0.5323, "total_shots": 1.6331, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "key_pass": 0.6144, "rating": 6.6392, "minutes": 80.41, "total_pass": 7.5976, "accurate_pass": 4.3211, "duels_won": 5.2191, "total_long_balls": 0.1427, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7522, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0595, "crosses_total": 0.5838, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.444, "possession_lost": 7.0814, "dispossessed": 0.5055, "duels_lost": 5.0474, "aerial_lost": 3.3196, "total_contest": 1.3529, "won_contest": 0.9118, "ball_recovery": 2.7862, "challenges_lost": 0.7812, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.9412, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.8612, "tackles_won": 0.0, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2353 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.069 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0623 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0511 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0413 } ], "others": -0.1445, "total": 0.6421, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.299871 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.079063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.077124 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.063679 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.051231 } ], "others_margin": -0.202779 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.715195178985596, "model_output": 6.7152, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 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"volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0204, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3599, "expected_assists": 0.1373, "assists": 0.1409, "assist_rate": 0.1409, "expected_goals": 0.1452, "goals": 0.1512, "goal_rate": 0.1512, "shots_on_target": 0.5997, "total_shots": 1.3488, "rating": 6.8899, "minutes": 75.77, "total_pass": 22.245, "accurate_pass": 17.294, "duels_won": 4.1249, "total_long_balls": 1.0204, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2721, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4896, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6526, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7554, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6415, "crosses_total": 3.8935, "crosses_accurate": 2.2399, "touches": 39.8561, "possession_lost": 11.896, "dispossessed": 0.4689, "duels_lost": 5.918, "aerial_won": 1.6403, "aerial_lost": 1.524, "interceptions": 0.7483, "tackles_won": 0.5516, "tackles": 0.7483, "clearances": 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false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.018643 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.015123 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01259 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.011102 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.010857 } ], "others_margin": -0.033017 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1493 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0592 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.048 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0354 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0275 } ], "others": -0.1958, "total": 0.8284, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.149311 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.05918 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.047975 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.035385 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.027459 } ], "others_margin": 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1.6161, "total_contest": 0.268, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0878, "fouls": 0.6553, "fouls_drawn": 1.0033, "blocks": 0.5272, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.411, "total_progression": 61.7035, "progressive_carries": 0.1646, "shots_off_target": 0.6061 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5200000, "quality_factor": 0.4646, "boost_factor": 0.9939, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0433)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7784, "expected_assists": 0.0713, "assists": 0.0698, "assist_rate": 0.0698, "expected_goals": 0.0468, "goals": 0.0571, "goal_rate": 0.0571, "shots_on_target": 0.2079, "total_shots": 0.8089, "rating": 6.8674, "minutes": 87.87, "total_pass": 44.0714, "accurate_pass": 36.6609, "duels_won": 4.1868, "total_long_balls": 4.5343, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4913, 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21.3467, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.7192, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7247, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9418, "crosses_total": 3.2906, "crosses_accurate": 0.6603, "touches": 55.8414, "possession_lost": 10.5659, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7772, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.7661, "interceptions": 0.4417, "tackles_won": 0.8832, "tackles": 1.9999, "clearances": 1.6161, "total_contest": 0.268, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0878, "fouls": 0.6269, "fouls_drawn": 1.0021, "blocks": 0.5272, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.411, "total_progression": 61.7035, "progressive_carries": 0.1646, "shots_off_target": 0.5155, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8506, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.298, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Amar Dedić", 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0628 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0461 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0271 } ], "others": -0.0486, "total": 0.6098, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.323368 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127794 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.062811 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.046062 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.027093 } ], "others_margin": -0.048614 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.713399410247803, "model_output": 6.7134, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9990, quality 0.495)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5623, "expected_assists": 0.044, "assists": 0.0499, "assist_rate": 0.0499, "expected_goals": 0.0445, "goals": 0.0452, "goal_rate": 0.0452, "shots_on_target": 0.163, "total_shots": 0.6093, "rating": 6.7134, "minutes": 81.56, "total_pass": 21.7076, "accurate_pass": 15.1337, "duels_won": 3.6439, "total_long_balls": 3.63, "accurate_long_balls": 1.883, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5151, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.7435, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1925, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.39, "crosses_total": 0.3135, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 31.0479, "possession_lost": 8.24, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.47, "aerial_won": 0.7594, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.471, "tackles_won": 0.506, "tackles": 1.3125, "clearances": 0.8935, "total_contest": 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"Lewis Miley", "opponent_faced": "Lewis Miley", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lewis Miley", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.329, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8217, "skill_edge": -0.1013, "height_edge": -0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.5053, "defender_skill": 0.7304, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Lewis Miley", "market_value": 27000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.7304 } ], "xg_override": 0.0366 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.7594, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6069, "after": 0.4987 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4463, "after": 0.3667 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1606, "after": 0.132 }, { "stat": 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"creation_factor": 1.0553 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.8, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8584, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6567, "team_expected_assists": 0.612, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.765, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9319, "xa_scale": 0.9319, "opponent_lambda": 1.619, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5623, "expected_assists": 0.041, "assist_rate": 0.0492, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goal_rate": 0.0366, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.132, "total_shots": 0.4987, "rating": 6.7134, "minutes": 81.56, "total_pass": 21.7076, "accurate_pass": 15.1337, "duels_won": 3.6439, "total_long_balls": 3.63, "accurate_long_balls": 1.883, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5151, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.7435, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1925, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 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"contribution": 0.0236 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0152 } ], "others": -0.0178, "total": 0.4175, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.106897 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051307 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.023558 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020226 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.015233 } ], "others_margin": -0.017772 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.720862865447998, "model_output": 6.7209, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0103 } ], "others": -0.006, "total": 6.7209, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013014 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012905 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011692 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.011242 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010333 } ], "others_margin": -0.005921 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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{ "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1463, "after": 1.1152 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.6438, "after": 0.6128 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.9713, "after": 0.9967 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.4283, "after": 0.4077 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1152, "tackles": 1.8984, "tackles_won": 1.2273, "clearances": 2.8768, "aerial_won": 1.0183, "total_shots": 0.4283, "rating": 6.7209, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.1306, "accurate_pass": 25.1033, "duels_won": 3.7298, "total_long_balls": 3.0656, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7938, "total_own_half_passes": 12.4969, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2386, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6337, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8647, "crosses_total": 0.9967, "crosses_accurate": 0.7388, "touches": 51.0078, "possession_lost": 10.1846, "dispossessed": 0.7522, "duels_lost": 4.7398, "aerial_lost": 0.5196, "total_contest": 1.9782, "won_contest": 0.3219, "ball_recovery": 3.351, "challenges_lost": 0.8692, "fouls": 0.9454, "fouls_drawn": 0.6128, "blocks": 0.7173, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0766, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7814, "total_progression": 50.9204, "progressive_carries": 1.3668, "key_pass": 0.7871, "shots_off_target": 0.4283 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1152, "tackles": 1.8984, "tackles_won": 1.2273, "clearances": 2.8768, "aerial_won": 1.0183, "total_shots": 0.4283, "rating": 6.7209, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.1306, "accurate_pass": 25.1033, "duels_won": 3.7298, "total_long_balls": 3.0656, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7938, "total_own_half_passes": 12.4969, 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"step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.80 (squad xG sum 0.8584, xG scale 0.9319, xA scale 0.9319, team xA 0.61 = 0.76 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1152, "tackles": 1.8984, "tackles_won": 1.2273, "clearances": 2.8768, "aerial_won": 1.0183, "total_shots": 0.4283, "rating": 6.7209, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.1306, "accurate_pass": 25.1033, "duels_won": 3.7298, "total_long_balls": 3.0656, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7938, "total_own_half_passes": 12.4969, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2386, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6337, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8647, "crosses_total": 0.9967, "crosses_accurate": 0.7388, "touches": 51.0078, "possession_lost": 10.1846, "dispossessed": 0.7522, "duels_lost": 4.7398, "aerial_lost": 0.5196, "total_contest": 1.9782, "won_contest": 0.3219, "ball_recovery": 3.351, "challenges_lost": 0.8692, "fouls": 0.9454, "fouls_drawn": 0.6128, "blocks": 0.7173, 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"minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 7.1768, "aerialWon": 3.066, "totalClearance_p90": 7.4061, "totalTackle": 0.6052, "totalPass": 33.8957 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.110214352607727, "model_output": 1.1102, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3015 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0387 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0279 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0248 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0238 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.859, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1037 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0916 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0362 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.028 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0241 } ], "others": 0.0158, "total": 1.1102, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.152032, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.113936 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.090921 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.033784 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.02539 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.021824 } ], "others_margin": 0.014378 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.2436360120773315, "model_output": 1.2436, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2671 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0621 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0423 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0299 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3957, "items": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1214 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} ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8578, "items": [ { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0713 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.063 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0589 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0434 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0338 } ], "others": -0.0622, "total": 0.7298, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.153422, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.086817 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.083568 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.078255 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.054046 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.041752 } ], "others_margin": -0.081784 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 6.038553237915039, "model_output": 6.0386, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2968 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1597 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0817 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"aerialWon", "importance": 0.1495 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.087 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0315 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3784, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.6341 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2373 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.259 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2433 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.2106 } ], "others": 0.1979, "total": 3.1606, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320928, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.378433 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.111456 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.108949 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.092555 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.073752 } ], "others_margin": 0.064693 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9618492126464844, "model_output": 0.9618, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3372 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.066 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0172 } ], "others": 0.0126, "total": 0.9618, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.337245 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.065954 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.037713 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.018767 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.017237 } ], "others_margin": 0.012613 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.866225242614746, "model_output": 6.8662, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0372 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0097 } ], "others": 0.0216, "total": 6.8662, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.037188 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013876 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.013361 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.012201 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.009656 } ], "others_margin": 0.021724 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0135, quality 0.595)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1252, "tackles": 1.2604, "tackles_won": 0.7396, "clearances": 6.1201, "aerial_won": 3.2033, "total_shots": 0.9748, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 88.58, "total_pass": 34.3533, "accurate_pass": 27.4948, "duels_won": 5.4701, "total_long_balls": 5.1864, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1667, "total_own_half_passes": 18.9526, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.2176, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2773, "crosses_total": 0.1678, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.8294, "possession_lost": 7.2586, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.3548, "aerial_lost": 1.8198, "total_contest": 0.1678, "won_contest": 0.1678, "ball_recovery": 3.169, "challenges_lost": 0.744, "fouls": 0.9587, "fouls_drawn": 1.5815, "blocks": 1.2616, "goals": 0.0, 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1.0789 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9587, "after": 0.9832 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.5815, "after": 1.6017 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9748, "after": 0.9565 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.1678, "after": 0.1822 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7396, "after": 0.7305 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0789, "tackles": 1.2604, "tackles_won": 0.7305, "clearances": 6.1201, "aerial_won": 3.2033, "total_shots": 0.9748, "rating": 6.8662, "minutes": 88.58, "total_pass": 34.3533, "accurate_pass": 27.4948, "duels_won": 5.4701, "total_long_balls": 5.1864, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1667, "total_own_half_passes": 18.9526, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.2176, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2773, "crosses_total": 0.1822, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.8294, "possession_lost": 7.2586, "dispossessed": 0.0, 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0.744, "fouls": 0.9832, "fouls_drawn": 1.6017, "blocks": 1.2616, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0988, "expected_assists": 0.0573, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1974, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.9982, "total_progression": 21.5876, "progressive_carries": 0.1678, "key_pass": 0.5376, "shots_off_target": 0.9748, "opponent_faced": "Jacob Murphy", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.8, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8584, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6567, "team_expected_assists": 0.612, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.765, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9319, "xa_scale": 0.9319, "opponent_lambda": 1.619, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.106, 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-0.0511 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.033 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0258 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0237 } ], "others": -0.0583, "total": 6.9845, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.00281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.056036 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.05113 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.032963 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.025823 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.023707 } ], "others_margin": -0.058323 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9873, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8399, "goals_prevented": -0.0991, "rating": 6.9845, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 28.6874, "accurate_pass": 13.9076, "total_long_balls": 19.0619, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2821, "touches": 40.1041, "clearances": 1.6484, "ball_recovery": 8.8127, "high_claims": 0.9873, "punches": 1.5605, "aerial_won": 0.3838, "sweeper_actions": 1.2559, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2559, "saves_inside_box": 2.3095, "possession_lost": 14.7798, "duels_won": 1.1514, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7676, "total_own_half_passes": 13.5257, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8325 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 730000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9873, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4377, "goals_prevented": -0.0153, "rating": 6.9845, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.4211, "accurate_pass": 2.1433, "total_long_balls": 2.9377, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6599, "touches": 6.1806, "clearances": 0.254, "ball_recovery": 1.3582, "high_claims": 0.1522, "punches": 0.2405, "aerial_won": 0.0591, "sweeper_actions": 0.1936, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1936, "saves_inside_box": 0.3559, "possession_lost": 2.2778, "duels_won": 0.1774, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1183, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0845, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6694, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1541, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4377, "goals_prevented": -0.0153, "rating": 6.9845, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.4211, "accurate_pass": 2.1433, "total_long_balls": 2.9377, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6599, "touches": 6.1806, "clearances": 0.254, "ball_recovery": 1.3582, "high_claims": 0.1522, "punches": 0.2405, "aerial_won": 0.0591, "sweeper_actions": 0.1936, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1936, "saves_inside_box": 0.3559, "possession_lost": 2.2778, "duels_won": 0.1774, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1183, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0845, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6694, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4377, "goals_prevented": -0.0153, "rating": 6.9845, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.4211, "accurate_pass": 2.1433, "total_long_balls": 2.9377, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6599, "touches": 6.1806, "clearances": 0.254, "ball_recovery": 1.3582, "high_claims": 0.1522, "punches": 0.2405, "aerial_won": 0.0591, "sweeper_actions": 0.1936, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1936, "saves_inside_box": 0.3559, "possession_lost": 2.2778, "duels_won": 0.1774, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1183, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0845, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6694, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.525, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 4, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 70.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4377, "goals_prevented": -0.0153, "rating": 6.9845, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.4211, "accurate_pass": 2.1433, "total_long_balls": 2.9377, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6599, "touches": 6.1806, "clearances": 0.254, "ball_recovery": 1.3582, "high_claims": 0.1522, "punches": 0.2405, "aerial_won": 0.0591, "sweeper_actions": 0.1936, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1936, "saves_inside_box": 0.3559, "possession_lost": 2.2778, "duels_won": 0.1774, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1183, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0845, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6694, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.525, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4833, "fifa_rank": 5591.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 70.0 } } ] }, "Liam Kitching": { "player_id": 921006, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 186, "market_value": 15200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "expected_goals": 0.0029, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 1.0842, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0063, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0022, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.325, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.14, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.525, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0009, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0027, "finishing_factor": 0.9416, "creation_factor": 0.9542, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3718, "combined_rank_score": 1691.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3270.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Liam Kitching", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Santiago Núñez", "ranking": 3713 }, { "player_name": "Viktor Johansson", "ranking": 3714 }, { "player_name": "Isaac Romero", "ranking": 3715 }, { "player_name": "Roman Yaremchuk", "ranking": 3716 }, { "player_name": "Joe Gelhardt", "ranking": 3717 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Andreas Tetteh", "ranking": 3719 }, { "player_name": "Kiril Despodov", "ranking": 3720 }, { "player_name": "Lamare Bogarde", "ranking": 3721 }, { "player_name": "Darius Olaru", "ranking": 3722 }, { "player_name": "Jairo Concha", "ranking": 3723 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.142160785804542, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.3246436720820246, "market_value_adjustment": 0.5814, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Coventry City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€15,200,000) scaled to 14.1 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position D (quality 0.58)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.7, "tackles": 2.6, "tackles_won": 1.6, "clearances": 2.9, "aerial_won": 2.5, "duels_won": 5.9, "total_pass": 47.0, "accurate_pass": 37.0, "expected_goals": 0.02, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90.0, "total_long_balls": 6.0, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2, "total_own_half_passes": 30.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0, "crosses_total": 1.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.4, "touches": 62.0, "possession_lost": 6.9, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 3.7, "aerial_lost": 2.2, "total_contest": 4.3, "won_contest": 2.5, "ball_recovery": 5.3, "challenges_lost": 1.1, "fouls": 1.1, "fouls_drawn": 0.7, "blocks": 0.8, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.04, "assist_rate": 0.04, "expected_assists": 0.057, "total_shots": 0.4, "shots_on_target": 0.17, "shots_off_target": 0.22, "big_chances_created": 0.04, "xgot": 0.015, "key_pass": 0.7, "ball_carries": 22.0, "total_progression": 65.0, "progressive_carries": 5.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15200000, "quality_factor": 0.5814 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 14.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.32)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2671, "tackles": 0.4086, "tackles_won": 0.2514, "clearances": 0.4557, "aerial_won": 0.3928, "duels_won": 0.9271, "total_pass": 7.3854, "accurate_pass": 5.814, "expected_goals": 0.0031, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 14.14, "total_long_balls": 0.9428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5028, "total_own_half_passes": 4.7141, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7712, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.7285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2571, "crosses_total": 0.1571, "crosses_accurate": 0.0629, "touches": 9.7424, "possession_lost": 1.0842, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 0.5814, "aerial_lost": 2.2, "total_contest": 0.6757, "won_contest": 0.3928, "ball_recovery": 0.8328, "challenges_lost": 1.1, "fouls": 0.1728, "fouls_drawn": 0.11, "blocks": 0.1257, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0063, "expected_assists": 0.009, "total_shots": 0.0629, "shots_on_target": 0.0267, "shots_off_target": 0.0346, "big_chances_created": 0.0063, "xgot": 0.0024, "key_pass": 0.11, "ball_carries": 3.457, "total_progression": 10.2138, "progressive_carries": 0.7857, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.325, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.14 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.14, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.1571, "appearance_probability": 0.325 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2671, "tackles": 0.4086, "tackles_won": 0.2514, "clearances": 0.4557, "aerial_won": 0.3928, "duels_won": 0.9271, "total_pass": 7.3854, "accurate_pass": 5.814, "expected_goals": 0.0031, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 14.14, "total_long_balls": 0.9428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5028, "total_own_half_passes": 4.7141, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7712, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.7285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2571, "crosses_total": 0.1571, "crosses_accurate": 0.0629, "touches": 9.7424, "possession_lost": 1.0842, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 0.5814, "aerial_lost": 2.2, "total_contest": 0.6757, "won_contest": 0.3928, "ball_recovery": 0.8328, "challenges_lost": 1.1, "fouls": 0.1728, "fouls_drawn": 0.11, "blocks": 0.1257, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0063, "assist_rate": 0.0063, "expected_assists": 0.009, "total_shots": 0.0629, "shots_on_target": 0.0267, "shots_off_target": 0.0346, "big_chances_created": 0.0063, "xgot": 0.0024, "key_pass": 0.11, "ball_carries": 3.457, "total_progression": 10.2138, "progressive_carries": 0.7857, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.325, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.14 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.80 (squad xG sum 0.8584, xG scale 0.9319, xA scale 0.9319, team xA 0.61 = 0.76 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2671, "tackles": 0.4086, "tackles_won": 0.2514, "clearances": 0.4557, "aerial_won": 0.3928, "duels_won": 0.9271, "total_pass": 7.3854, "accurate_pass": 5.814, "expected_goals": 0.0029, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 14.14, "total_long_balls": 0.9428, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5028, "total_own_half_passes": 4.7141, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7712, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.7285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2571, "crosses_total": 0.1571, "crosses_accurate": 0.0629, "touches": 9.7424, "possession_lost": 1.0842, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 0.5814, "aerial_lost": 2.2, "total_contest": 0.6757, "won_contest": 0.3928, "ball_recovery": 0.8328, "challenges_lost": 1.1, "fouls": 0.1728, "fouls_drawn": 0.11, "blocks": 0.1257, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0063, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "total_shots": 0.0629, "shots_on_target": 0.0267, "shots_off_target": 0.0346, "big_chances_created": 0.0063, "xgot": 0.0022, "key_pass": 0.11, "ball_carries": 3.457, "total_progression": 10.2138, "progressive_carries": 0.7857, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.325, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.14, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.525, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, 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"name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0558 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0362 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.033 } ], "others": -0.0915, "total": 0.8121, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320928, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.908445 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.500879 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.059091 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.037903 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.035827 } ], "others_margin": -0.106912 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1832997351884842, "model_output": 0.1833, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.109 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2244 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0628 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0269 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0146 } ], "others": -0.0052, "total": 0.1833, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.22436 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.062814 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026856 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.015725 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.014646 } ], "others_margin": -0.005361 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.773410320281982, "model_output": 6.7734, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0082 } ], "others": 0.003, "total": 6.7734, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019185 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.018101 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012093 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.010569 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.00819 } ], "others_margin": 0.002997 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / 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0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3354 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2685 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0403 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0389 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.03 } ], "others": -0.0138, "total": 0.2631, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.335373 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.26853 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.040275 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.038865 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.030022 } ], "others_margin": -0.013779 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.650650978088379, "model_output": 6.6507, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0593 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0412 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0337 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0072 } ], "others": -0.0439, "total": 6.6507, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.059252 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.041204 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.03374 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014364 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.007165 } ], "others_margin": -0.043981 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0170, quality 0.618)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3644, "expected_assists": 0.0244, "assists": 0.0382, "assist_rate": 0.0382, "expected_goals": 0.0227, "goals": 0.0285, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "shots_on_target": 0.0738, "total_shots": 0.2676, "rating": 6.6507, "minutes": 20.3, "total_pass": 21.1271, "accurate_pass": 18.0865, "duels_won": 2.9445, "total_long_balls": 1.8597, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7169, "total_own_half_passes": 11.3617, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4208, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7653, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6657, "crosses_total": 0.6408, "crosses_accurate": 0.1684, "touches": 29.2302, "possession_lost": 6.3553, "dispossessed": 0.1684, "duels_lost": 4.3478, "aerial_won": 1.5869, "aerial_lost": 1.072, "interceptions": 0.3962, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2742, "clearances": 1.0537, "total_contest": 0.8853, "won_contest": 0.2743, "challenges_lost": 0.4724, "fouls": 2.0239, "fouls_drawn": 0.8091, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.4123, "total_progression": 33.7598, "progressive_carries": 0.8562, "shots_off_target": 0.1938 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18700000, "quality_factor": 0.6181, "boost_factor": 1.017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0325)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3644, "expected_assists": 0.0244, "assists": 0.037, "assist_rate": 0.037, "expected_goals": 0.0227, "goals": 0.0276, "goal_rate": 0.0276, "shots_on_target": 0.0714, "total_shots": 0.264, "rating": 6.6507, "minutes": 20.3, "total_pass": 21.1271, "accurate_pass": 18.0865, "duels_won": 2.9445, "total_long_balls": 1.8597, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7169, 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"margin": 0.057714 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.053236 } ], "others_margin": -0.035285 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2819271683692932, "model_output": 0.2819, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4296 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2433 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0478 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0326 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0227 } ], "others": -0.0277, "total": 0.2819, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.429581 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.243327 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.047807 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.032567 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.022709 } ], "others_margin": -0.027678 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6405534744262695, "model_output": 6.6406, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0706 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0598 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0429 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.008 } ], "others": -0.0328, "total": 6.6406, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.070567 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.059777 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.042939 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.01172 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.008028 } ], "others_margin": -0.032828 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0129, quality 0.574)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4025, "expected_assists": 0.0368, "assists": 0.047, "assist_rate": 0.047, "expected_goals": 0.0191, "goals": 0.0389, "goal_rate": 0.0389, "shots_on_target": 0.0917, "total_shots": 0.2856, "rating": 6.6406, "minutes": 19.12, "total_pass": 9.6241, "accurate_pass": 8.6702, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.3347, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0258, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2635, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6443, "crosses_total": 1.6321, "crosses_accurate": 0.2845, "touches": 13.7327, "possession_lost": 3.2553, "dispossessed": 0.2845, "duels_lost": 0.9538, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2845, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3347, "fouls": 0.3347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2845, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9294, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1939 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14500000, "quality_factor": 0.5737, "boost_factor": 1.0129, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0135)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4025, "expected_assists": 0.0368, "assists": 0.0464, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "expected_goals": 0.0191, "goals": 0.0384, "goal_rate": 0.0384, "shots_on_target": 0.0905, "total_shots": 0.2817, "rating": 6.6406, "minutes": 19.12, "total_pass": 9.6241, "accurate_pass": 8.6702, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.3347, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3605, 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"total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2422, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.88, "projection_minutes": 19.12, "minutes_scale": 1.249, "appearance_probability": 0.703 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5027, "expected_assists": 0.046, "assists": 0.058, "assist_rate": 0.058, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "goals": 0.048, "goal_rate": 0.048, "shots_on_target": 0.113, "total_shots": 0.3552, "rating": 6.6406, "minutes": 23.88, "total_pass": 12.0201, "accurate_pass": 10.8287, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.418, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9482, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5301, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0718, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2984, "crosses_total": 2.0395, "crosses_accurate": 0.3553, "touches": 17.1515, "possession_lost": 4.0657, "dispossessed": 0.2845, "duels_lost": 1.1913, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3577, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3347, "fouls": 0.4195, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3553, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6587, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2422, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.80 (squad xG sum 0.8584, xG scale 0.9319, xA scale 0.9319, team xA 0.61 = 0.76 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5027, "expected_assists": 0.0429, "assist_rate": 0.058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "goal_rate": 0.048, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.113, "total_shots": 0.3552, "rating": 6.6406, "minutes": 23.88, "total_pass": 12.0201, "accurate_pass": 10.8287, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.418, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9482, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5301, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0718, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2984, "crosses_total": 2.0395, "crosses_accurate": 0.3553, "touches": 17.1515, "possession_lost": 4.0657, "dispossessed": 0.2845, "duels_lost": 1.1913, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3577, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3347, "fouls": 0.4195, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3553, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6587, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2422, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.525, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.125 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.8, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8584, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6567, "team_expected_assists": 0.612, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.765, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9319, "xa_scale": 0.9319, "opponent_lambda": 1.619, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.703 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5027, "expected_assists": 0.0429, "assist_rate": 0.058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "goal_rate": 0.048, "goals": 0, 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"projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.525, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.125, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4103, "fifa_rank": 3267.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5027, "expected_assists": 0.0429, "assist_rate": 0.058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "goal_rate": 0.048, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.113, "total_shots": 0.3552, "rating": 6.6406, "minutes": 23.88, "total_pass": 12.0201, "accurate_pass": 10.8287, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.418, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9482, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5301, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0718, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2984, "crosses_total": 2.0395, "crosses_accurate": 0.3553, "touches": 17.1515, "possession_lost": 4.0657, "dispossessed": 0.2845, "duels_lost": 1.1913, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3577, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3347, "fouls": 0.4195, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3553, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6587, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2422, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.525, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0155, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.125, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0155, "scorer_weight": 0.0196, "squad_weight_total": 0.821, "weight_share": 0.0239, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.703, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5027, "expected_assists": 0.0429, "assist_rate": 0.058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0223, 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"importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4296 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2433 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0478 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0326 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0227 } ], "others": -0.0277, "total": 0.2819, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.429581 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.243327 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.047807 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.032567 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.022709 } ], "others_margin": -0.027678 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6405534744262695, "model_output": 6.6406, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0706 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0598 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0429 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.008 } ], "others": -0.0328, "total": 6.6406, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.070567 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.059777 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.042939 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.01172 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.008028 } ], "others_margin": -0.032828 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0129, quality 0.574)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4025, "expected_assists": 0.0368, "assists": 0.047, "assist_rate": 0.047, "expected_goals": 0.0191, "goals": 0.0389, "goal_rate": 0.0389, "shots_on_target": 0.0917, "total_shots": 0.2856, "rating": 6.6406, "minutes": 19.12, "total_pass": 9.6241, "accurate_pass": 8.6702, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.3347, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0258, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2635, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6443, "crosses_total": 1.6321, "crosses_accurate": 0.2845, "touches": 13.7327, "possession_lost": 3.2553, "dispossessed": 0.2845, "duels_lost": 0.9538, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2845, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3347, "fouls": 0.3347, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2845, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9294, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1939 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14500000, "quality_factor": 0.5737, "boost_factor": 1.0129, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0135)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4025, "expected_assists": 0.0368, "assists": 0.0464, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "expected_goals": 0.0191, "goals": 0.0384, "goal_rate": 0.0384, "shots_on_target": 0.0905, "total_shots": 0.2817, "rating": 6.6406, "minutes": 19.12, "total_pass": 9.6241, "accurate_pass": 8.6702, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.3347, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3605, 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"total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2422, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.88, "projection_minutes": 19.12, "minutes_scale": 1.249, "appearance_probability": 0.703 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5027, "expected_assists": 0.046, "assists": 0.058, "assist_rate": 0.058, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "goals": 0.048, "goal_rate": 0.048, "shots_on_target": 0.113, "total_shots": 0.3552, "rating": 6.6406, "minutes": 23.88, "total_pass": 12.0201, "accurate_pass": 10.8287, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.418, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9482, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5301, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0718, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2984, "crosses_total": 2.0395, "crosses_accurate": 0.3553, "touches": 17.1515, "possession_lost": 4.0657, "dispossessed": 0.2845, "duels_lost": 1.1913, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3577, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3347, "fouls": 0.4195, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3553, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6587, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2422, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 0.80 (squad xG sum 0.8584, xG scale 0.9319, xA scale 0.9319, team xA 0.61 = 0.76 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5027, "expected_assists": 0.0429, "assist_rate": 0.058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "goal_rate": 0.048, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.113, "total_shots": 0.3552, "rating": 6.6406, "minutes": 23.88, "total_pass": 12.0201, "accurate_pass": 10.8287, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.418, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9482, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5301, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0718, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2984, "crosses_total": 2.0395, "crosses_accurate": 0.3553, "touches": 17.1515, "possession_lost": 4.0657, "dispossessed": 0.2845, "duels_lost": 1.1913, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3577, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3347, "fouls": 0.4195, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3553, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6587, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2422, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.525, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.125 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.8, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8584, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6567, "team_expected_assists": 0.612, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.765, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9319, "xa_scale": 0.9319, "opponent_lambda": 1.619, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.703 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5027, "expected_assists": 0.0429, "assist_rate": 0.058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "goal_rate": 0.048, "goals": 0, 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"expected_goals": 0.0223, "goal_rate": 0.048, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.113, "total_shots": 0.3552, "rating": 6.6406, "minutes": 23.88, "total_pass": 12.0201, "accurate_pass": 10.8287, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.418, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9482, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5301, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0718, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2984, "crosses_total": 2.0395, "crosses_accurate": 0.3553, "touches": 17.1515, "possession_lost": 4.0657, "dispossessed": 0.2845, "duels_lost": 1.1913, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3577, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3347, "fouls": 0.4195, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3553, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6587, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2422, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.525, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0155, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.125, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0155, "scorer_weight": 0.0196, "squad_weight_total": 0.821, "weight_share": 0.0239, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.703, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5027, "expected_assists": 0.0429, "assist_rate": 0.058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0223, 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"league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1052, "combined_rank_score": 476.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 278.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0667, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 674.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7214, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yoane Wissa", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Gabriel Martinelli", "ranking": 1047 }, { "player_name": "Marcus Tavernier", "ranking": 1048 }, { "player_name": "Wojciech Szczęsny", "ranking": 1049 }, { "player_name": "Matías Bórquez", "ranking": 1050 }, { "player_name": "Alessandro 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"importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0328 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2386 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0641 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0563 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0326 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0292 } ], "others": -0.0706, "total": 0.6586, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.30355 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07292 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.068703 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.04209 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.03925 } ], "others_margin": -0.101819 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.721415996551514, "model_output": 6.7214, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", 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"model_output": 6.8476, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0622 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0123 } ], "others": 0.0221, "total": 6.8476, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062154 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.01505 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.014997 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012624 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.012266 } ], 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0079, quality 0.752)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1415, "goals": 0.1926, "goal_rate": 0.1926, "shots_on_target": 0.5835, "total_shots": 1.7781, "expected_assists": 0.1095, "key_pass": 1.1229, "rating": 6.8476, "minutes": 85.0, "total_pass": 22.0867, "accurate_pass": 17.8083, "duels_won": 3.1467, "total_long_balls": 0.9044, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3857, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8695, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.3023, "crosses_total": 2.2198, "crosses_accurate": 0.2473, "touches": 37.4128, "possession_lost": 10.3991, "dispossessed": 0.6481, "duels_lost": 4.0471, "aerial_lost": 0.762, "total_contest": 1.6044, "won_contest": 0.4455, "ball_recovery": 3.1304, "challenges_lost": 0.6718, "fouls": 0.8322, "fouls_drawn": 1.494, "assists": 0.3771, "assist_rate": 0.3771, "interceptions": 0.4326, 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"others_margin": 0.078512 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.6289315819740295, "model_output": 0.6289, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.108 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0886 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0725 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0265 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0869 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0642 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0681 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0403 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.028 } ], "others": 0.0734, "total": 0.6289, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.126872, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.237504 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.145191 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.133938 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.071647 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.049184 } ], "others_margin": 0.124044 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.9573187828063965, "model_output": 1.9573, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0485 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.99, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4507 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1865 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0835 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0808 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.043 } ], "others": 0.1228, "total": 1.9573, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.450718 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.186538 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.083501 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.080763 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.043016 } ], "others_margin": 0.122802 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.862967491149902, "model_output": 6.863, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0329 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0073 } ], "others": -0.01, "total": 6.863, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.032887 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.021546 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.015238 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.009325 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.007303 } ], "others_margin": -0.009956 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0030, quality 0.574)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0482, "expected_assists": 0.1121, "assists": 0.0713, "assist_rate": 0.0713, "expected_goals": 0.175, "goals": 0.1729, "goal_rate": 0.1729, "shots_on_target": 0.6308, "total_shots": 1.9632, "rating": 6.863, "minutes": 76.12, "total_pass": 29.1345, "accurate_pass": 25.8533, "duels_won": 3.2536, "total_long_balls": 1.485, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7666, "total_own_half_passes": 11.2466, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.4647, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.8879, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.3887, "crosses_total": 0.4839, "crosses_accurate": 0.1518, "touches": 42.9754, "possession_lost": 7.2097, "dispossessed": 1.3876, "duels_lost": 4.3768, "aerial_won": 0.4429, "aerial_lost": 0.3698, "interceptions": 0.6196, "tackles_won": 0.4657, "tackles": 0.9582, "clearances": 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"margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.272985 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.063508 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.058258 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.048603 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.03752 } ], "others_margin": -0.070854 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7266950607299805, "model_output": 6.7267, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0448 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0010, quality 0.534)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0902, "goals": 0.0991, "goal_rate": 0.0991, "shots_on_target": 0.3737, "total_shots": 1.1289, "expected_assists": 0.0642, "key_pass": 0.7954, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 69.75, "total_pass": 18.4238, "accurate_pass": 13.6444, "duels_won": 2.7333, "total_long_balls": 1.8841, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8624, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5645, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7879, "crosses_total": 4.3099, "crosses_accurate": 0.6254, "touches": 34.1033, "possession_lost": 11.7441, "dispossessed": 0.9043, "duels_lost": 3.3364, "aerial_lost": 0.6712, "total_contest": 1.24, "won_contest": 0.5788, "ball_recovery": 2.0825, "challenges_lost": 0.9092, "fouls": 0.3017, "fouls_drawn": 0.9496, "assists": 0.0881, "assist_rate": 0.0881, "interceptions": 0.2654, 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0.265, "tackles_won": 0.5962, "tackles": 0.8374, "clearances": 0.8881, "blocks": 0.1174, "big_chances_created": 0.3063, "big_chances_missed": 0.0211, "xgot": 0.0189, "offsides": 0.1377, "ball_carries": 8.9825, "total_progression": 32.6516, "progressive_carries": 0.6326, "shots_off_target": 0.7347, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9728, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.181, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ethan Pinnock, Stephen Mfuni", "opponent_faced": "Ethan Pinnock, Stephen Mfuni", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0625, "creation_factor": 1.2084, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": 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"assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0625, "creation_factor": 1.2084, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1162, "scorer_weight": 0.1312, "squad_weight_total": 1.7215, "weight_share": 0.0762, "finishing_factor": 1.0625, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yoane Wissa", "weight": 0.4971, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4971, "runner_up": "Harvey Barnes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2819 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1235, "goal_rate": 0.0963, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.363, "total_shots": 1.0977, "expected_assists": 0.0943, "key_pass": 0.7954, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 69.75, "total_pass": 18.4238, 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-0.039106 } ], "others_margin": -0.111855 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9230241775512695, "model_output": 6.923, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1083 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0337 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0335 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0251 } ], "others": -0.0277, "total": 6.923, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.108321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033653 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.033476 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.033298 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.025091 } ], "others_margin": -0.027621 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0132, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.713, "expected_assists": 0.0561, "assists": 0.0536, "assist_rate": 0.0536, "expected_goals": 0.0357, "goals": 0.0413, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "shots_on_target": 0.1525, "total_shots": 0.592, "rating": 6.923, "minutes": 69.23, "total_pass": 53.0728, "accurate_pass": 48.0761, "duels_won": 3.1699, "total_long_balls": 3.4122, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0005, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6663, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0531, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4065, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.0231, "crosses_total": 0.3051, "crosses_accurate": 0.0431, "touches": 62.0599, "possession_lost": 6.8643, "dispossessed": 0.7478, "duels_lost": 4.6706, "aerial_won": 0.9027, "aerial_lost": 0.8874, "interceptions": 0.9695, "tackles_won": 0.6709, "tackles": 1.1501, "clearances": 1.1388, "total_contest": 0.531, "won_contest": 0.4002, "challenges_lost": 1.1694, "fouls": 1.8374, "fouls_drawn": 0.7169, "blocks": 0.2614, "big_chances_created": 0.0099, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0053, "ball_carries": 18.0139, "total_progression": 33.9594, "progressive_carries": 0.2628, "shots_off_target": 0.4395 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 43000000, "quality_factor": 0.7957, "boost_factor": 1.0132, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.713, "expected_assists": 0.0561, "assists": 0.0536, "assist_rate": 0.0536, "expected_goals": 0.0357, "goals": 0.0413, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "shots_on_target": 0.1525, "total_shots": 0.592, "rating": 6.923, "minutes": 69.23, "total_pass": 53.0728, "accurate_pass": 48.0761, "duels_won": 3.1699, "total_long_balls": 3.4122, 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"expected_assists": 0.0561, "assists": 0.0536, "assist_rate": 0.0536, "expected_goals": 0.0357, "goals": 0.0413, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "shots_on_target": 0.1525, "total_shots": 0.592, "rating": 6.923, "minutes": 69.23, "total_pass": 53.0728, "accurate_pass": 48.0761, "duels_won": 3.1699, "total_long_balls": 3.4122, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0005, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6663, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0531, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4065, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.0231, "crosses_total": 0.3051, "crosses_accurate": 0.0431, "touches": 62.0599, "possession_lost": 6.8643, "dispossessed": 0.7478, "duels_lost": 4.6706, "aerial_won": 0.9027, "aerial_lost": 0.8874, "interceptions": 0.9695, "tackles_won": 0.6709, "tackles": 1.1501, "clearances": 1.1388, "total_contest": 0.531, "won_contest": 0.4002, "challenges_lost": 1.1694, "fouls": 1.8374, "fouls_drawn": 0.7169, "blocks": 0.2614, "big_chances_created": 0.0099, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0053, "ball_carries": 18.0139, 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"squad_xa_sum": 0.7167, "team_expected_assists": 1.0524, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4084, "xa_scale": 1.4684, "opponent_lambda": 0.8, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0357, "after": 0.0503 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0561, "after": 0.0824 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.713, "expected_assists": 0.0824, "assist_rate": 0.0536, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1525, "total_shots": 0.592, "rating": 6.923, "minutes": 69.23, "total_pass": 53.0728, "accurate_pass": 48.0761, "duels_won": 3.1699, "total_long_balls": 3.4122, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0005, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6663, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0531, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4065, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.0231, "crosses_total": 0.3051, "crosses_accurate": 0.0431, "touches": 62.0599, "possession_lost": 6.8643, "dispossessed": 0.7478, "duels_lost": 4.6706, "aerial_won": 0.9027, "aerial_lost": 0.8874, "interceptions": 0.9695, "tackles_won": 0.6709, "tackles": 1.1501, "clearances": 1.1388, "total_contest": 0.531, "won_contest": 0.4002, "challenges_lost": 1.1694, "fouls": 1.8374, "fouls_drawn": 0.7169, "blocks": 0.2614, "big_chances_created": 0.0099, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0075, "ball_carries": 18.0139, "total_progression": 33.9594, "progressive_carries": 0.2628, "shots_off_target": 0.4395, "opponent_faced": "Frank Onyeka", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0653, "creation_factor": 0.9764, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 960, "fifa_rank": 517.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.713, "expected_assists": 0.0824, "assist_rate": 0.0536, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1525, "total_shots": 0.592, "rating": 6.923, "minutes": 69.23, "total_pass": 53.0728, "accurate_pass": 48.0761, "duels_won": 3.1699, "total_long_balls": 3.4122, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0005, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6663, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0531, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4065, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.0231, 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"scorer_weight": 0.0536, "squad_weight_total": 1.7215, "weight_share": 0.0311, "finishing_factor": 1.0653, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yoane Wissa", "weight": 0.4971, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4971, "runner_up": "Harvey Barnes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2819 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.713, "expected_assists": 0.0824, "assist_rate": 0.0536, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1525, "total_shots": 0.592, "rating": 6.923, "minutes": 69.23, "total_pass": 53.0728, "accurate_pass": 48.0761, "duels_won": 3.1699, "total_long_balls": 3.4122, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0005, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6663, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0531, 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true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0791, "provider_weight": 0.0805, "squad_weight_total": 1.0952, "weight_share": 0.0735, "creation_factor": 0.9764, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Harvey Barnes", "weight": 0.201, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.201, "runner_up": "Lewis Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1669, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Yoane Wissa" ] } ] } } ] }, "Lewis Hall": { "player_id": 1136730, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 179, "market_value": 38000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9278, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 43, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, 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0.0656 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0378 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4723, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2099 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0632 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0416 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0333 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0217 } ], "others": 0.0715, "total": 0.9135, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.209906 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.063236 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.041564 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.033261 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.021685 } ], "others_margin": 0.071524 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9278106689453125, "model_output": 6.9278, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": 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"starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 29, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0099, quality 0.770)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0791, "tackles": 2.1413, "tackles_won": 1.4272, "clearances": 3.2515, "aerial_won": 1.0512, "total_shots": 0.9226, "rating": 6.9278, "minutes": 87.98, "total_pass": 49.3693, "accurate_pass": 43.3637, "duels_won": 5.493, "total_long_balls": 5.7508, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0846, "total_own_half_passes": 22.8492, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0758, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.2879, "crosses_total": 3.9217, "crosses_accurate": 0.956, "touches": 81.5641, "possession_lost": 15.2731, "dispossessed": 1.6881, "duels_lost": 6.6656, "aerial_lost": 1.8144, "total_contest": 2.764, "won_contest": 1.2017, "ball_recovery": 6.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.9127, "fouls": 0.6995, "fouls_drawn": 1.4033, "blocks": 1.1633, "goals": 0.1708, "goal_rate": 0.1708, "assists": 0.1127, "assist_rate": 0.1127, "expected_goals": 0.0547, "expected_assists": 0.1188, "shots_on_target": 0.4276, "big_chances_created": 0.2687, "xgot": 0.0394, "ball_carries": 17.9042, "total_progression": 74.8363, "progressive_carries": 1.9731, "key_pass": 1.1251, "shots_off_target": 0.495 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 38000000, "quality_factor": 0.7699, "boost_factor": 1.0099, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0833, "tackles": 2.1413, "tackles_won": 1.4329, "clearances": 3.2515, "aerial_won": 1.0512, "total_shots": 0.9179, "rating": 6.9278, "minutes": 87.98, "total_pass": 49.3693, "accurate_pass": 43.3637, "duels_won": 5.493, "total_long_balls": 5.7508, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0846, "total_own_half_passes": 22.8492, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0758, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.2879, "crosses_total": 3.9216, "crosses_accurate": 0.956, "touches": 81.5641, "possession_lost": 15.2731, "dispossessed": 1.6881, "duels_lost": 6.6656, "aerial_lost": 1.8144, "total_contest": 2.764, "won_contest": 1.2017, "ball_recovery": 6.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.9127, "fouls": 0.7078, "fouls_drawn": 1.3987, "blocks": 1.1633, "goals": 0.169, "goal_rate": 0.169, "assists": 0.1115, "assist_rate": 0.1115, "expected_goals": 0.0547, "expected_assists": 0.1188, "shots_on_target": 0.423, "big_chances_created": 0.2687, "xgot": 0.0394, "ball_carries": 17.9042, "total_progression": 74.8363, "progressive_carries": 1.9731, "key_pass": 1.1251, "shots_off_target": 0.495 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0108, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9776, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.6995, "after": 0.7078 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.4272, "after": 1.4329 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0833, "tackles": 2.1413, "tackles_won": 1.4329, "clearances": 3.2515, "aerial_won": 1.0512, "total_shots": 0.918, "rating": 6.9278, "minutes": 87.98, "total_pass": 49.3693, "accurate_pass": 43.3637, "duels_won": 5.493, "total_long_balls": 5.7508, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0846, "total_own_half_passes": 22.8492, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0758, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.2879, "crosses_total": 3.9216, "crosses_accurate": 0.956, "touches": 81.5641, "possession_lost": 15.2731, "dispossessed": 1.6881, "duels_lost": 6.6656, "aerial_lost": 1.8144, "total_contest": 2.764, "won_contest": 1.2017, "ball_recovery": 6.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.9127, "fouls": 0.7078, "fouls_drawn": 1.3987, "blocks": 1.1633, "goals": 0.169, "goal_rate": 0.169, "assists": 0.1115, "assist_rate": 0.1115, "expected_goals": 0.0547, "expected_assists": 0.1188, "shots_on_target": 0.423, "big_chances_created": 0.2687, "xgot": 0.0394, "ball_carries": 17.9042, "total_progression": 74.8363, "progressive_carries": 1.9731, "key_pass": 1.1251, "shots_off_target": 0.495 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0833, "tackles": 2.1413, "tackles_won": 1.4329, "clearances": 3.2515, "aerial_won": 1.0512, "total_shots": 0.918, "rating": 6.9278, "minutes": 87.98, "total_pass": 49.3693, "accurate_pass": 43.3637, "duels_won": 5.493, "total_long_balls": 5.7508, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0846, "total_own_half_passes": 22.8492, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0758, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.2879, "crosses_total": 3.9216, "crosses_accurate": 0.956, "touches": 81.5641, "possession_lost": 15.2731, "dispossessed": 1.6881, "duels_lost": 6.6656, "aerial_lost": 1.8144, "total_contest": 2.764, "won_contest": 1.2017, "ball_recovery": 6.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.9127, "fouls": 0.7078, "fouls_drawn": 1.3987, "blocks": 1.1633, "goals": 0.169, "goal_rate": 0.169, "assists": 0.1115, "assist_rate": 0.1115, "expected_goals": 0.0547, "expected_assists": 0.1188, "shots_on_target": 0.423, "big_chances_created": 0.2687, "xgot": 0.0394, "ball_carries": 17.9042, "total_progression": 74.8363, "progressive_carries": 1.9731, "key_pass": 1.1251, "shots_off_target": 0.495, "opponent_faced": "Ephron Mason-Clark", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ephron Mason-Clark", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.62 (squad xG sum 1.1495, xG scale 1.4084, xA scale 1.4684, team xA 1.05 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0833, "tackles": 2.1413, "tackles_won": 1.4329, "clearances": 3.2515, "aerial_won": 1.0512, "total_shots": 0.918, "rating": 6.9278, "minutes": 87.98, "total_pass": 49.3693, "accurate_pass": 43.3637, "duels_won": 5.493, "total_long_balls": 5.7508, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0846, "total_own_half_passes": 22.8492, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0758, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.2879, "crosses_total": 3.9216, "crosses_accurate": 0.956, "touches": 81.5641, "possession_lost": 15.2731, "dispossessed": 1.6881, "duels_lost": 6.6656, "aerial_lost": 1.8144, "total_contest": 2.764, "won_contest": 1.2017, "ball_recovery": 6.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.9127, "fouls": 0.7078, "fouls_drawn": 1.3987, "blocks": 1.1633, "goal_rate": 0.169, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1115, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.077, "expected_assists": 0.1744, "shots_on_target": 0.423, "big_chances_created": 0.2687, "xgot": 0.0555, "ball_carries": 17.9042, "total_progression": 74.8363, "progressive_carries": 1.9731, "key_pass": 1.1251, "shots_off_target": 0.495, "opponent_faced": "Ephron Mason-Clark", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9568 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.619, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1495, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7167, "team_expected_assists": 1.0524, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4084, "xa_scale": 1.4684, "opponent_lambda": 0.8, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0547, "after": 0.077 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1188, "after": 0.1744 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0833, "tackles": 2.1413, "tackles_won": 1.4329, "clearances": 3.2515, "aerial_won": 1.0512, "total_shots": 0.918, "rating": 6.9278, "minutes": 87.98, "total_pass": 49.3693, "accurate_pass": 43.3637, "duels_won": 5.493, "total_long_balls": 5.7508, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0846, "total_own_half_passes": 22.8492, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0758, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.2879, "crosses_total": 3.9216, "crosses_accurate": 0.956, "touches": 81.5641, "possession_lost": 15.2731, "dispossessed": 1.6881, "duels_lost": 6.6656, "aerial_lost": 1.8144, "total_contest": 2.764, "won_contest": 1.2017, "ball_recovery": 6.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.9127, "fouls": 0.7078, "fouls_drawn": 1.3987, "blocks": 1.1633, "goal_rate": 0.169, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1115, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.077, "expected_assists": 0.1744, "shots_on_target": 0.423, "big_chances_created": 0.2687, "xgot": 0.0555, "ball_carries": 17.9042, "total_progression": 74.8363, "progressive_carries": 1.9731, "key_pass": 1.1251, "shots_off_target": 0.495, "opponent_faced": "Ephron Mason-Clark", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9568, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 170, "fifa_rank": 278.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0833, "tackles": 2.1413, "tackles_won": 1.4329, "clearances": 3.2515, "aerial_won": 1.0512, "total_shots": 0.918, "rating": 6.9278, "minutes": 87.98, "total_pass": 49.3693, "accurate_pass": 43.3637, "duels_won": 5.493, "total_long_balls": 5.7508, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0846, "total_own_half_passes": 22.8492, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0758, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.2879, "crosses_total": 3.9216, "crosses_accurate": 0.956, "touches": 81.5641, "possession_lost": 15.2731, "dispossessed": 1.6881, "duels_lost": 6.6656, "aerial_lost": 1.8144, "total_contest": 2.764, "won_contest": 1.2017, "ball_recovery": 6.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.9127, "fouls": 0.7078, "fouls_drawn": 1.3987, "blocks": 1.1633, "goal_rate": 0.169, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1115, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.077, "expected_assists": 0.1744, "shots_on_target": 0.423, "big_chances_created": 0.2687, "xgot": 0.0555, "ball_carries": 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}, "Sven Botman": { "player_id": 910046, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 193, "market_value": 33000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8566, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 51, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 43, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 77, "possession_lost": 8.5673, "dispossessed": 0.1819, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0134, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0548, "expected_assists": 0.0639, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0252, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0100, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2039, "tackles": 1.308, "tackles_won": 0.7488, "clearances": 6.7549, "aerial_won": 3.2008, "total_shots": 0.6581, "rating": 6.8566, "minutes": 88.9, "total_pass": 59.1638, "accurate_pass": 51.3983, "duels_won": 6.3293, "total_long_balls": 6.8146, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1053, "total_own_half_passes": 43.1368, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.0519, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3465, "crosses_total": 0.0256, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 76.6302, "possession_lost": 8.5673, "dispossessed": 0.1819, "duels_lost": 3.2933, "aerial_lost": 2.2444, "total_contest": 0.1013, "won_contest": 0.1013, "ball_recovery": 3.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.332, "fouls": 0.542, "fouls_drawn": 1.0006, "blocks": 1.3033, "goals": 0.0136, 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"total_opp_half_passes": 16.027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3465, "crosses_total": 0.0253, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 76.6302, "possession_lost": 8.5673, "dispossessed": 0.1819, "duels_lost": 3.2933, "aerial_lost": 2.2444, "total_contest": 0.1013, "won_contest": 0.1013, "ball_recovery": 3.0155, "challenges_lost": 0.332, "fouls": 0.5353, "fouls_drawn": 0.9943, "blocks": 1.3033, "goals": 0.0134, "goal_rate": 0.0134, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0389, "expected_assists": 0.0435, "shots_on_target": 0.1806, "big_chances_created": 0.0567, "xgot": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 20.4772, "total_progression": 58.2865, "progressive_carries": 0.2436, "key_pass": 0.1149, "shots_off_target": 0.4752 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0124, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9878, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.2039, "after": 1.189 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7488, "after": 0.7395 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.542, "after": 0.5353 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.0006, "after": 0.9943 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.189, "tackles": 1.308, "tackles_won": 0.7395, "clearances": 6.7549, "aerial_won": 3.2008, "total_shots": 0.6561, "rating": 6.8566, "minutes": 88.9, "total_pass": 59.1638, "accurate_pass": 51.3983, "duels_won": 6.3293, "total_long_balls": 6.8146, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1053, "total_own_half_passes": 43.1368, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.0519, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3465, "crosses_total": 0.0253, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 76.6302, "possession_lost": 8.5673, "dispossessed": 0.1819, "duels_lost": 3.2933, "aerial_lost": 2.2444, "total_contest": 0.1013, "won_contest": 0.1013, "ball_recovery": 3.0155, 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0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.619, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1495, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7167, "team_expected_assists": 1.0524, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4084, "xa_scale": 1.4684, "opponent_lambda": 0.8, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0389, "after": 0.0548 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0435, "after": 0.0639 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.189, "tackles": 1.308, "tackles_won": 0.7395, "clearances": 6.7549, "aerial_won": 3.2008, "total_shots": 0.6561, "rating": 6.8566, "minutes": 88.9, "total_pass": 59.1638, "accurate_pass": 51.3983, "duels_won": 6.3293, 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"contribution": 0.0078 } ], "others": 0.0074, "total": 6.7773, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785968, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028821 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.023629 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.019407 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.009067 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.007817 } ], "others_margin": 0.007441 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"after": 0.4682 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.9324, "after": 0.9234 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.6363, "after": 0.6302 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9234, "tackles": 1.0294, "tackles_won": 0.6302, "clearances": 6.4836, "aerial_won": 3.0914, "total_shots": 0.4861, "rating": 6.7773, "minutes": 89.79, "total_pass": 54.6323, "accurate_pass": 47.6756, "duels_won": 4.5874, "total_long_balls": 6.6393, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6869, "total_own_half_passes": 35.1016, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.0395, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6361, "crosses_total": 0.0214, "crosses_accurate": 0.007, "touches": 66.8132, "possession_lost": 7.3536, "dispossessed": 0.0026, "duels_lost": 2.7447, "aerial_lost": 1.7559, "total_contest": 0.3986, "won_contest": 0.3986, "ball_recovery": 2.5705, "challenges_lost": 0.2731, "fouls": 0.7425, 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"description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.62 (squad xG sum 1.1495, xG scale 1.4084, xA scale 1.4684, team xA 1.05 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9234, "tackles": 1.0294, "tackles_won": 0.6302, "clearances": 6.4836, "aerial_won": 3.0914, "total_shots": 0.4861, "rating": 6.7773, "minutes": 89.79, "total_pass": 54.6323, "accurate_pass": 47.6756, "duels_won": 4.5874, "total_long_balls": 6.6393, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6869, "total_own_half_passes": 35.1016, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.0395, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6361, "crosses_total": 0.0214, "crosses_accurate": 0.007, "touches": 66.8132, "possession_lost": 7.3536, "dispossessed": 0.0026, "duels_lost": 2.7447, "aerial_lost": 1.7559, "total_contest": 0.3986, "won_contest": 0.3986, "ball_recovery": 2.5705, "challenges_lost": 0.2731, "fouls": 0.7425, "fouls_drawn": 0.4682, "blocks": 1.2084, "goal_rate": 0.0182, "goals": 0, 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"runner_up": "Lewis Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1669, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Yoane Wissa" ] } ] } } ] }, "Amar Dedić": { "player_id": 1102791, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 37, "height": 180, "market_value": 19400000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7521, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 53, "possession_lost": 10.5252, "dispossessed": 0.3201, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2423, "assists": 0, 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"total": 0.6032, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47232, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061775 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.04665 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.037408 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.032711 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.012987 } ], "others_margin": 0.030748 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.752067565917969, "model_output": 6.7521, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0729 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0624 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.037 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.786, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": 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0.273, "shots_off_target": 0.1474, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.301, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.63 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2817, "tackles": 0.4557, "tackles_won": 0.2719, "clearances": 1.3694, "aerial_won": 0.789, "total_shots": 0.1474, "rating": 6.734, "minutes": 13.63, "total_pass": 8.2072, "accurate_pass": 7.1968, "duels_won": 1.2057, "total_long_balls": 0.2321, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2321, "total_own_half_passes": 4.9183, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6452, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.289, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5516, "crosses_total": 0.273, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.6639, "possession_lost": 1.6835, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2017, "aerial_lost": 1.1113, "total_contest": 0.2321, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 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"shirt_number": 7, "height": 186, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.031, "assist_rate": 0.0477, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.0653, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6967, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 3.0768, "dispossessed": 0.2691, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1994, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 11, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, 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{ "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2396 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0298 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.024 } ], "others": -0.0616, "total": 0.2856, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.356522 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.239645 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.040914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.0298 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.023965 } ], "others_margin": -0.061499 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.638224124908447, "model_output": 6.6382, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0595 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0554 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0079 } ], "others": -0.0469, "total": 6.6382, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.059489 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.055435 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.030195 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012322 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.007917 } ], "others_margin": -0.046773 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0173, quality 0.597)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2232, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "assists": 0.0238, "assist_rate": 0.0238, "expected_goals": 0.0221, "goals": 0.0391, "goal_rate": 0.0391, "shots_on_target": 0.0723, "total_shots": 0.2905, "rating": 6.6382, "minutes": 14.27, "total_pass": 2.4212, "accurate_pass": 2.0851, "duels_won": 1.6985, "total_long_balls": 0.3361, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3361, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0173, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0173, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.4039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.4904, "possession_lost": 1.5799, "dispossessed": 0.3361, "duels_lost": 1.2941, "aerial_won": 0.6812, "aerial_lost": 0.2858, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6219, "tackles": 1.0173, "clearances": 1.0766, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3361, "fouls": 0.3361, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1271, "total_progression": 0.8834, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2182 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16700000, "quality_factor": 0.5974, "boost_factor": 1.0173, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0054)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2232, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "assists": 0.0237, "assist_rate": 0.0237, "expected_goals": 0.0221, "goals": 0.0389, "goal_rate": 0.0389, "shots_on_target": 0.0719, "total_shots": 0.2889, "rating": 6.6382, "minutes": 14.27, "total_pass": 2.4212, "accurate_pass": 2.0851, "duels_won": 1.6985, "total_long_balls": 0.3361, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3361, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0173, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0173, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.4039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.4904, "possession_lost": 1.5799, "dispossessed": 0.3361, "duels_lost": 1.2941, "aerial_won": 0.6812, "aerial_lost": 0.2858, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6228, "tackles": 1.0173, "clearances": 1.0766, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3361, "fouls": 0.3343, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1271, "total_progression": 0.8834, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2182 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0054, "history_matches": 3, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1586, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.3 to 18.4 expected minutes 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"ball_carries": 1.4549, "total_progression": 1.1403, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2817, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.705, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.42 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.42, "projection_minutes": 14.27, "minutes_scale": 1.2908, "appearance_probability": 0.705 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "assists": 0.0306, "assist_rate": 0.0306, "expected_goals": 0.0285, "goals": 0.0502, "goal_rate": 0.0502, "shots_on_target": 0.0928, "total_shots": 0.3745, "rating": 6.6382, "minutes": 18.42, "total_pass": 3.1253, "accurate_pass": 2.6915, "duels_won": 2.1925, "total_long_balls": 0.4338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4338, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3132, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3132, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.3779, "possession_lost": 2.0394, "dispossessed": 0.3361, "duels_lost": 1.6705, "aerial_won": 0.8793, "aerial_lost": 0.2858, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8039, "tackles": 1.3132, "clearances": 1.3897, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3361, "fouls": 0.4315, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4549, "total_progression": 1.1403, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2817, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.705, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.42 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.62 (squad xG sum 1.1495, xG scale 1.4084, xA scale 1.4684, team xA 1.05 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "assist_rate": 0.0306, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0401, "goal_rate": 0.0502, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0928, "total_shots": 0.3745, "rating": 6.6382, "minutes": 18.42, "total_pass": 3.1253, "accurate_pass": 2.6915, "duels_won": 2.1925, "total_long_balls": 0.4338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4338, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3132, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3132, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.3779, "possession_lost": 2.0394, "dispossessed": 0.3361, "duels_lost": 1.6705, "aerial_won": 0.8793, "aerial_lost": 0.2858, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8039, "tackles": 1.3132, "clearances": 1.3897, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3361, "fouls": 0.4315, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4549, "total_progression": 1.1403, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2817, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.705, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.42, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.116, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.2194 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.619, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1495, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7167, "team_expected_assists": 1.0524, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4084, "xa_scale": 1.4684, "opponent_lambda": 0.8, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.705 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0285, "after": 0.0401 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0161, "after": 0.0236 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "assist_rate": 0.0306, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0401, "goal_rate": 0.0502, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0928, "total_shots": 0.3745, "rating": 6.6382, "minutes": 18.42, "total_pass": 3.1253, "accurate_pass": 2.6915, "duels_won": 2.1925, "total_long_balls": 0.4338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4338, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3132, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3132, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.3779, "possession_lost": 2.0394, "dispossessed": 0.3361, "duels_lost": 1.6705, "aerial_won": 0.8793, "aerial_lost": 0.2858, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8039, "tackles": 1.3132, "clearances": 1.3897, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3361, "fouls": 0.4315, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4549, "total_progression": 1.1403, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2817, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.705, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.42, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.116, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.2194, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4363, "fifa_rank": 3930.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "assist_rate": 0.0306, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0401, "goal_rate": 0.0502, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0928, "total_shots": 0.3745, "rating": 6.6382, "minutes": 18.42, "total_pass": 3.1253, "accurate_pass": 2.6915, "duels_won": 2.1925, "total_long_balls": 0.4338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4338, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3132, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3132, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.3779, "possession_lost": 2.0394, "dispossessed": 0.3361, "duels_lost": 1.6705, "aerial_won": 0.8793, "aerial_lost": 0.2858, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8039, "tackles": 1.3132, "clearances": 1.3897, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, 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"weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yoane Wissa", "weight": 0.4971, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4971, "runner_up": "Harvey Barnes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2819 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "assist_rate": 0.0306, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0401, "goal_rate": 0.0502, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0928, "total_shots": 0.3745, "rating": 6.6382, "minutes": 18.42, "total_pass": 3.1253, "accurate_pass": 2.6915, "duels_won": 2.1925, "total_long_balls": 0.4338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4338, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3132, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3132, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.213315 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.108978 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.073923 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.056824 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.053471 } ], "others_margin": -0.156636 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3720727562904358, "model_output": 0.3721, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0328 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2517 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0288 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0197 } ], "others": 0.0001, "total": 0.3721, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.468663 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.070917 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.059587 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.058206 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.051577 } ], "others_margin": 0.000248 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.648938179016113, "model_output": 6.6489, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0482 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0077 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0076 } ], "others": -0.0309, "total": 6.6489, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.048235 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011866 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.008397 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.007741 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.007551 } ], "others_margin": -0.030876 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0133, quality 0.850)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0717, "goals": 0.0668, "goal_rate": 0.0668, "shots_on_target": 0.2449, "total_shots": 0.5979, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "key_pass": 0.377, "rating": 6.6489, "minutes": 18.48, "total_pass": 4.5255, "accurate_pass": 3.4513, "duels_won": 1.7403, "total_long_balls": 0.084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.121, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.7405, "possession_lost": 2.1885, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 1.7965, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.6234, "won_contest": 0.2733, "ball_recovery": 0.6323, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.2529, "fouls_drawn": 0.7265, "assists": 0.1893, "assist_rate": 0.1893, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1504, "tackles": 0.1504, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0713, "big_chances_created": 0.3501, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1893, "ball_carries": 1.566, "total_progression": 5.9238, "progressive_carries": 0.2519, "shots_off_target": 0.353 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 59000000, "quality_factor": 0.8503, "boost_factor": 1.0133, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0011)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0717, "goals": 0.0667, "goal_rate": 0.0667, "shots_on_target": 0.2446, "total_shots": 0.5983, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "key_pass": 0.377, "rating": 6.6489, "minutes": 18.48, "total_pass": 4.5255, "accurate_pass": 3.4513, "duels_won": 1.7403, "total_long_balls": 0.084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.121, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.7405, "possession_lost": 2.1885, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 1.7965, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.6234, "won_contest": 0.2733, "ball_recovery": 0.6323, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.2526, "fouls_drawn": 0.728, "assists": 0.1902, "assist_rate": 0.1902, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1502, "tackles": 0.1504, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0713, "big_chances_created": 0.3501, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.566, "total_progression": 5.9238, "progressive_carries": 0.2519, "shots_off_target": 0.353 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0011, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2053, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.5 to 23.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.75)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0897, "goals": 0.0834, "goal_rate": 0.0834, "shots_on_target": 0.306, "total_shots": 0.7485, "expected_assists": 0.0581, "key_pass": 0.4717, "rating": 6.6489, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assists": 0.238, "assist_rate": 0.238, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.4416, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.12, "projection_minutes": 18.48, "minutes_scale": 1.2511, "appearance_probability": 0.752 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0897, "goals": 0.0834, "goal_rate": 0.0834, "shots_on_target": 0.306, "total_shots": 0.7485, "expected_assists": 0.0581, "key_pass": 0.4717, "rating": 6.6489, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assists": 0.238, "assist_rate": 0.238, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.4416, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.62 (squad xG sum 1.1495, xG scale 1.4084, xA scale 1.4684, team xA 1.05 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1263, "goal_rate": 0.0834, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.306, "total_shots": 0.7485, "expected_assists": 0.0853, "key_pass": 0.4717, "rating": 6.6489, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.4416, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.116, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9549, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.619, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1495, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7167, "team_expected_assists": 1.0524, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4084, "xa_scale": 1.4684, "opponent_lambda": 0.8, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.752 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0897, "after": 0.1263 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0581, "after": 0.0853 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1263, "goal_rate": 0.0834, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.306, "total_shots": 0.7485, "expected_assists": 0.0853, "key_pass": 0.4717, "rating": 6.6489, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.4416, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.116, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9549, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 905, "fifa_rank": 690.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1263, "goal_rate": 0.0834, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.306, "total_shots": 0.7485, "expected_assists": 0.0853, "key_pass": 0.4717, "rating": 6.6489, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.4416, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.116, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0892, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9549, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0892, "scorer_weight": 0.0907, "squad_weight_total": 1.7215, "weight_share": 0.0527, "finishing_factor": 0.9549, "appearance_weight": 0.752, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yoane Wissa", "weight": 0.4971, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4971, "runner_up": "Harvey Barnes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2819 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1263, "goal_rate": 0.0834, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.306, "total_shots": 0.7485, "expected_assists": 0.0853, "key_pass": 0.4717, "rating": 6.6489, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, 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"others": 0.0155, "total": 0.3568, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.506525 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.122947 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.106598 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.099058 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.089121 } ], "others_margin": 0.04413 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.648391246795654, "model_output": 6.6484, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0612 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0281, "total": 6.6484, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061162 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.017632 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.016706 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013057 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011913 } ], "others_margin": -0.028156 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.6728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2517 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0288 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0197 } ], "others": 0.0001, "total": 0.3721, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.468663 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.070917 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.059587 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.058206 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.051577 } ], "others_margin": 0.000248 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.648938179016113, "model_output": 6.6489, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": 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"role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0133, quality 0.850)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0717, "goals": 0.0668, "goal_rate": 0.0668, "shots_on_target": 0.2449, "total_shots": 0.5979, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "key_pass": 0.377, "rating": 6.6489, "minutes": 18.48, "total_pass": 4.5255, "accurate_pass": 3.4513, "duels_won": 1.7403, "total_long_balls": 0.084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.121, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.7405, "possession_lost": 2.1885, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 1.7965, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.6234, "won_contest": 0.2733, "ball_recovery": 0.6323, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.2529, "fouls_drawn": 0.7265, "assists": 0.1893, "assist_rate": 0.1893, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1504, 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"bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.12, "projection_minutes": 18.48, "minutes_scale": 1.2511, "appearance_probability": 0.752 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0897, "goals": 0.0834, "goal_rate": 0.0834, "shots_on_target": 0.306, "total_shots": 0.7485, "expected_assists": 0.0581, "key_pass": 0.4717, "rating": 6.6489, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, 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"expected_assists": 0.0853, "key_pass": 0.4717, "rating": 6.6489, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.4416, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, 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0.0834, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.306, "total_shots": 0.7485, "expected_assists": 0.0853, "key_pass": 0.4717, "rating": 6.6489, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.4416, 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"integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1263, "goal_rate": 0.0834, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.306, "total_shots": 0.7485, "expected_assists": 0.0853, "key_pass": 0.4717, "rating": 6.6489, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, 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"fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6484, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Bazoumana Touré", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Savinho", "ranking": 1302 }, { "player_name": "Matt Sutton", "ranking": 1303 }, { "player_name": "Pierre Kalulu", "ranking": 1304 }, { "player_name": "Mario Gila", "ranking": 1305 }, { "player_name": "Son Heung Min", "ranking": 1306 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Emil Audero", "ranking": 1308 }, { "player_name": "Lukáš Haraslín", "ranking": 1309 }, { "player_name": "Marko Dmitrović", "ranking": 1310 }, { "player_name": "Tino Livramento", "ranking": 1311 }, { "player_name": "Yéremy Pino", "ranking": 1312 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", 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"rows": 15537 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 33.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 0.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.094, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 3.585, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 2.6433, "accuratePass": 3.6346, "totalShots": 0.3304 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.07450896501541138, "model_output": 0.0745, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.282 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0894 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0352 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0258 }, { 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0.6526393294334412, "model_output": 0.6526, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2764 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0561 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0354 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.517 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1207 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0422 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0335 } ], "others": -0.0565, "total": 0.6526, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.372807, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.517016 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.120657 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.049659 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.042195 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.033531 } ], "others_margin": -0.056429 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.023047244176268578, "model_output": 0.023, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1017 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0665 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0563 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0639, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0047 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0021 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0018 } ], "others": -0.0008, "total": 0.023, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.751197, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.361244 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.318179 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.156212 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.07883 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.07086 } ], "others_margin": -0.033687 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3567926287651062, "model_output": 0.3568, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1193 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0328 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6728, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2674 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.053 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0464 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0389 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0318 } ], "others": 0.0155, "total": 0.3568, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.396376, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.506525 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.122947 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.106598 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.099058 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.089121 } ], "others_margin": 0.04413 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.648391246795654, "model_output": 6.6484, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0639 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0556 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0431 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.039 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7636, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0612 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0281, "total": 6.6484, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.763607, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061162 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.017632 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.016706 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013057 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011913 } ], "others_margin": -0.028156 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0585, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0789, "goals": 0.0697, "goal_rate": 0.0697, "shots_on_target": 0.2535, "total_shots": 0.6909, "expected_assists": 0.0244, "key_pass": 0.3777, "rating": 6.6484, "minutes": 18.44, "total_pass": 5.2555, "accurate_pass": 3.8472, "duels_won": 1.8105, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7979, "crosses_total": 1.0493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3497, "touches": 13.1032, "possession_lost": 6.3346, "dispossessed": 0.823, "duels_lost": 3.8678, "aerial_lost": 0.3497, "total_contest": 2.2836, "won_contest": 0.6995, "ball_recovery": 1.111, "challenges_lost": 0.7612, "fouls": 0.3497, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4114, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1872, "offsides": 1.111, "ball_carries": 5.6669, "total_progression": 12.427, "progressive_carries": 1.0493, "shots_off_target": 0.4374 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0585, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.4 to 12.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.75)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.054, "goals": 0.0477, "goal_rate": 0.0477, "shots_on_target": 0.1734, "total_shots": 0.4725, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.2583, "rating": 6.6484, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 3.5939, "accurate_pass": 2.6309, "duels_won": 1.2381, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9133, "crosses_total": 0.7176, "crosses_accurate": 0.2391, "touches": 8.9605, "possession_lost": 4.3318, "dispossessed": 0.823, "duels_lost": 2.645, "aerial_lost": 0.3497, "total_contest": 1.5616, "won_contest": 0.4783, "ball_recovery": 0.7597, "challenges_lost": 0.7612, "fouls": 0.2391, "fouls_drawn": 0.2391, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2813, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.128, "offsides": 1.111, "ball_carries": 3.8752, "total_progression": 8.4981, "progressive_carries": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.2991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 12.61, "projection_minutes": 18.44, "minutes_scale": 0.6838, "appearance_probability": 0.75 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.054, "goals": 0.0477, "goal_rate": 0.0477, "shots_on_target": 0.1734, "total_shots": 0.4725, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.2583, "rating": 6.6484, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 3.5939, "accurate_pass": 2.6309, "duels_won": 1.2381, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9133, "crosses_total": 0.7176, "crosses_accurate": 0.2391, "touches": 8.9605, "possession_lost": 4.3318, "dispossessed": 0.823, "duels_lost": 2.645, "aerial_lost": 0.3497, "total_contest": 1.5616, "won_contest": 0.4783, "ball_recovery": 0.7597, "challenges_lost": 0.7612, "fouls": 0.2391, "fouls_drawn": 0.2391, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2813, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.128, "offsides": 1.111, "ball_carries": 3.8752, "total_progression": 8.4981, "progressive_carries": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.2991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.62 (squad xG sum 1.1495, xG scale 1.4084, xA scale 1.4684, team xA 1.05 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0761, "goal_rate": 0.0477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1734, "total_shots": 0.4725, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "key_pass": 0.2583, "rating": 6.6484, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 3.5939, "accurate_pass": 2.6309, "duels_won": 1.2381, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9133, "crosses_total": 0.7176, "crosses_accurate": 0.2391, "touches": 8.9605, "possession_lost": 4.3318, "dispossessed": 0.823, "duels_lost": 2.645, "aerial_lost": 0.3497, "total_contest": 1.5616, "won_contest": 0.4783, "ball_recovery": 0.7597, "challenges_lost": 0.7612, "fouls": 0.2391, "fouls_drawn": 0.2391, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2813, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1803, "offsides": 1.111, "ball_carries": 3.8752, "total_progression": 8.4981, "progressive_carries": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.2991, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.116, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9394, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.619, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1495, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7167, "team_expected_assists": 1.0524, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4084, "xa_scale": 1.4684, "opponent_lambda": 0.8, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.75 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.054, "after": 0.0761 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0167, "after": 0.0245 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0761, "goal_rate": 0.0477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1734, "total_shots": 0.4725, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "key_pass": 0.2583, "rating": 6.6484, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 3.5939, "accurate_pass": 2.6309, "duels_won": 1.2381, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9133, "crosses_total": 0.7176, "crosses_accurate": 0.2391, "touches": 8.9605, "possession_lost": 4.3318, "dispossessed": 0.823, 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"margin_base": 0.989981, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.356522 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.239645 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.040914 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.0298 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.023965 } ], "others_margin": -0.061499 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.638224124908447, "model_output": 6.6382, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0801 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0397 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0318 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8504, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0595 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0554 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0079 } ], "others": -0.0469, "total": 6.6382, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.850356, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.059489 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.055435 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.030195 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012322 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.007917 } ], "others_margin": -0.046773 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0173, quality 0.597)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2232, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "assists": 0.0238, "assist_rate": 0.0238, "expected_goals": 0.0221, "goals": 0.0391, "goal_rate": 0.0391, "shots_on_target": 0.0723, "total_shots": 0.2905, "rating": 6.6382, "minutes": 14.27, "total_pass": 2.4212, "accurate_pass": 2.0851, "duels_won": 1.6985, "total_long_balls": 0.3361, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3361, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0173, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0173, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.4039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.4904, "possession_lost": 1.5799, "dispossessed": 0.3361, "duels_lost": 1.2941, "aerial_won": 0.6812, "aerial_lost": 0.2858, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6219, "tackles": 1.0173, "clearances": 1.0766, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3361, "fouls": 0.3361, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1271, "total_progression": 0.8834, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2182 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16700000, "quality_factor": 0.5974, "boost_factor": 1.0173, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0054)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2232, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "assists": 0.0237, "assist_rate": 0.0237, "expected_goals": 0.0221, "goals": 0.0389, "goal_rate": 0.0389, "shots_on_target": 0.0719, "total_shots": 0.2889, "rating": 6.6382, "minutes": 14.27, "total_pass": 2.4212, "accurate_pass": 2.0851, "duels_won": 1.6985, "total_long_balls": 0.3361, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3361, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0173, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0173, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.4039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0678, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.4904, "possession_lost": 1.5799, "dispossessed": 0.3361, "duels_lost": 1.2941, "aerial_won": 0.6812, "aerial_lost": 0.2858, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6228, "tackles": 1.0173, "clearances": 1.0766, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3361, "fouls": 0.3343, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1271, "total_progression": 0.8834, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2182 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0054, "history_matches": 3, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1586, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.3 to 18.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "assists": 0.0306, "assist_rate": 0.0306, "expected_goals": 0.0285, "goals": 0.0502, "goal_rate": 0.0502, "shots_on_target": 0.0928, "total_shots": 0.3745, "rating": 6.6382, "minutes": 18.42, "total_pass": 3.1253, "accurate_pass": 2.6915, "duels_won": 2.1925, "total_long_balls": 0.4338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4338, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3132, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3132, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.3779, "possession_lost": 2.0394, "dispossessed": 0.3361, "duels_lost": 1.6705, "aerial_won": 0.8793, "aerial_lost": 0.2858, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8039, "tackles": 1.3132, "clearances": 1.3897, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3361, "fouls": 0.4315, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4549, "total_progression": 1.1403, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2817, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.705, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.42 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.42, "projection_minutes": 14.27, "minutes_scale": 1.2908, "appearance_probability": 0.705 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "assists": 0.0306, "assist_rate": 0.0306, "expected_goals": 0.0285, "goals": 0.0502, "goal_rate": 0.0502, "shots_on_target": 0.0928, "total_shots": 0.3745, "rating": 6.6382, "minutes": 18.42, "total_pass": 3.1253, "accurate_pass": 2.6915, "duels_won": 2.1925, "total_long_balls": 0.4338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4338, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3132, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3132, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.3779, "possession_lost": 2.0394, "dispossessed": 0.3361, "duels_lost": 1.6705, "aerial_won": 0.8793, "aerial_lost": 0.2858, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8039, "tackles": 1.3132, "clearances": 1.3897, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3361, "fouls": 0.4315, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4549, "total_progression": 1.1403, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2817, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.705, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.42 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled so squad sum equals team lambda 1.62 (squad xG sum 1.1495, xG scale 1.4084, xA scale 1.4684, team xA 1.05 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "assist_rate": 0.0306, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0401, "goal_rate": 0.0502, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0928, "total_shots": 0.3745, "rating": 6.6382, "minutes": 18.42, "total_pass": 3.1253, "accurate_pass": 2.6915, "duels_won": 2.1925, "total_long_balls": 0.4338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4338, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3132, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3132, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.3779, "possession_lost": 2.0394, "dispossessed": 0.3361, "duels_lost": 1.6705, "aerial_won": 0.8793, "aerial_lost": 0.2858, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8039, "tackles": 1.3132, "clearances": 1.3897, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3361, "fouls": 0.4315, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4549, "total_progression": 1.1403, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2817, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.705, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.42, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.116, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.2194 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.619, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1495, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7167, "team_expected_assists": 1.0524, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4084, "xa_scale": 1.4684, "opponent_lambda": 0.8, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.705 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0285, "after": 0.0401 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0161, "after": 0.0236 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Global ranking attached for display (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0; not used by the projection)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "assist_rate": 0.0306, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0401, "goal_rate": 0.0502, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0928, "total_shots": 0.3745, "rating": 6.6382, "minutes": 18.42, "total_pass": 3.1253, "accurate_pass": 2.6915, "duels_won": 2.1925, "total_long_balls": 0.4338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4338, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3132, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3132, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.3779, "possession_lost": 2.0394, "dispossessed": 0.3361, "duels_lost": 1.6705, "aerial_won": 0.8793, "aerial_lost": 0.2858, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8039, "tackles": 1.3132, "clearances": 1.3897, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3361, "fouls": 0.4315, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4549, "total_progression": 1.1403, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2817, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.705, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.42, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.116, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.2194, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4363, "fifa_rank": 3930.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "assist_rate": 0.0306, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0401, "goal_rate": 0.0502, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0928, "total_shots": 0.3745, "rating": 6.6382, "minutes": 18.42, "total_pass": 3.1253, "accurate_pass": 2.6915, "duels_won": 2.1925, "total_long_balls": 0.4338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4338, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3132, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3132, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.3779, "possession_lost": 2.0394, "dispossessed": 0.3361, "duels_lost": 1.6705, "aerial_won": 0.8793, "aerial_lost": 0.2858, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8039, "tackles": 1.3132, "clearances": 1.3897, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3361, "fouls": 0.4315, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4549, "total_progression": 1.1403, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2817, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.705, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.42, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.116, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0277, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.2194, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0277, "scorer_weight": 0.0353, "squad_weight_total": 1.7215, "weight_share": 0.0205, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.705, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yoane Wissa", "weight": 0.4971, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4971, "runner_up": "Harvey Barnes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2819 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2881, "expected_assists": 0.0236, "assist_rate": 0.0306, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0401, "goal_rate": 0.0502, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0928, "total_shots": 0.3745, "rating": 6.6382, "minutes": 18.42, "total_pass": 3.1253, "accurate_pass": 2.6915, "duels_won": 2.1925, "total_long_balls": 0.4338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4338, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3132, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3132, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.3779, "possession_lost": 2.0394, "dispossessed": 0.3361, "duels_lost": 1.6705, "aerial_won": 0.8793, "aerial_lost": 0.2858, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8039, "tackles": 1.3132, "clearances": 1.3897, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3361, "fouls": 0.4315, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4549, "total_progression": 1.1403, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2817, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.705, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.42, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.116, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0277, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0164, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.2194, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0164, "provider_weight": 0.0203, "squad_weight_total": 1.0952, "weight_share": 0.0185, "creation_factor": 1.2194, "appearance_weight": 0.705, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Harvey Barnes", "weight": 0.201, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.201, "runner_up": "Lewis Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1669, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Yoane Wissa" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.62, "expected_assists": 1.05, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 427, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 6.83, "possession_estimated_pct": 52.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Brandon Thomas-Asante", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 16500000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.595, "defenders": [ "Lewis Miley", "Sven Botman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.717, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.097, "xg_multiplier": 0.8258, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewis Miley", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Sven Botman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brandon Thomas-Asante (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Lewis Miley and Sven Botman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.83 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.097 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ephron Mason-Clark", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 17200000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.603, "defenders": [ "Lewis Miley", "Sven Botman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.717, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1743, "xg_multiplier": 0.8189, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewis Miley", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Sven Botman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ephron Mason-Clark (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Lewis Miley and Sven Botman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.82 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.174 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Matt Grimes", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Amar Dedić" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.625, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.298, "xg_contribution": 0.0398, "xg_multiplier": 0.8506, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Amar Dedić", "role": "RB", "market_value": 19400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.702 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matt Grimes (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Amar Dedić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.85 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.040 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jack Rudoni", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Lewis Miley" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.407, "xg_contribution": 0.1361, "xg_multiplier": 0.9375, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewis Miley", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.593 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jack Rudoni (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Lewis Miley in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.136 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Frank Onyeka", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 7700000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.495, "defenders": [ "Lewis Miley" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.329, "xg_contribution": 0.0366, "xg_multiplier": 0.8217, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewis Miley", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.671 } ], "duel_analysis": "Frank Onyeka (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Lewis Miley in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €27M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.82 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.037 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Joe Willock", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 14500000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.574, "defenders": [ "Ethan Pinnock" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.445, "xg_contribution": 0.1815, "xg_multiplier": 1.0371, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ethan Pinnock", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.555 } ], "duel_analysis": "Joe Willock (LW) is evenly matched against Ethan Pinnock in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.181 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Harvey Barnes", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 35000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.752, "defenders": [ "Ethan Pinnock", "Stephen Mfuni" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.289, "xg_contribution": 0.1601, "xg_multiplier": 1.1315, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ethan Pinnock", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.711 }, { "player": "Stephen Mfuni", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.711 } ], "duel_analysis": "Harvey Barnes (ST) is slightly favored against Ethan Pinnock and Stephen Mfuni in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€35M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.13 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.160 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Yoane Wissa", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Ethan Pinnock", "Stephen Mfuni" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.238, "xg_contribution": 0.3146, "xg_multiplier": 1.0557, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ethan Pinnock", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.762 }, { "player": "Stephen Mfuni", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.762 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yoane Wissa (ST) is evenly matched against Ethan Pinnock and Stephen Mfuni in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.315 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jacob Murphy", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 11000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.534, "defenders": [ "Ethan Pinnock", "Stephen Mfuni" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.181, "xg_contribution": 0.0877, "xg_multiplier": 0.9728, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ethan Pinnock", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.819 }, { "player": "Stephen Mfuni", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.819 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jacob Murphy (ST) is evenly matched against Ethan Pinnock and Stephen Mfuni in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.088 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.533, "away_midfield_power": 0.688, "home_creative_power": 0.518, "away_creative_power": 0.585, "home_defensive_power": 0.408, "away_defensive_power": 0.585, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.437, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Jack Rudoni", "Matt Grimes", "Frank Onyeka" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Joe Willock", "Lewis Miley", "Nico González" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 47.8, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 52.2, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.0, "home_throughball_threat": 2.2, "away_throughball_threat": 2.4, "key_personal_duel": "Jack Rudoni vs Nico González", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.982, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.026 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.8, "away_lambda": 1.619, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "LW vs CB" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Brandon Thomas-Asante": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Miley", "Sven Botman" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ephron Mason-Clark": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Miley", "Sven Botman" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Matt Grimes": { "opponents": [ "Amar Dedić", "Joe Willock" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jack Rudoni": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Miley" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Frank Onyeka": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Miley", "Nico González" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ethan Pinnock": { "opponents": [ "Joe Willock", "Harvey Barnes", "Yoane Wissa", "Jacob Murphy" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Stephen Mfuni": { "opponents": [ "Harvey Barnes", "Yoane Wissa", "Jacob Murphy" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Carl Rushworth": { "opponents": [ "Harvey Barnes", "Yoane Wissa" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Bobby Thomas": { "opponents": [ "Jacob Murphy" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jay DaSilva": { "opponents": [ "Harvey Barnes" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Milan van Ewijk": { "opponents": [ "Yoane Wissa" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Lewis Miley": { "opponents": [ "Brandon Thomas-Asante", "Ephron Mason-Clark", "Jack Rudoni", "Frank Onyeka" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sven Botman": { "opponents": [ "Brandon Thomas-Asante", "Ephron Mason-Clark" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Amar Dedić": { "opponents": [ "Matt Grimes" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Joe Willock": { "opponents": [ "Ethan Pinnock", "Matt Grimes" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Harvey Barnes": { "opponents": [ "Ethan Pinnock", "Stephen Mfuni" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yoane Wissa": { "opponents": [ "Ethan Pinnock", "Stephen Mfuni" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jacob Murphy": { "opponents": [ "Ethan Pinnock", "Stephen Mfuni" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Nico González": { "opponents": [ "Frank Onyeka" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Lukáš Horníček": { "opponents": [ "Ephron Mason-Clark", "Brandon Thomas-Asante" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Lewis Hall": { "opponents": [ "Ephron Mason-Clark" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Malick Thiaw": { "opponents": [ "Brandon Thomas-Asante" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Jack Rudoni vs Nico González). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.48, Away: 0.74. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9442, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9503, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.148, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1507, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8968, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9607, "home_midfield_factor": 0.982, "away_midfield_factor": 1.026, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5435, "away_avg_quality": 0.6929, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1494, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.8191, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.652, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.7452, "elite_count_gap": -2, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2673, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.147, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0855, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.4838, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.7253 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.982, "result": 0.7123 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 0.6767 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 0.7782 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9127, "result": 0.7102 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9442, "result": 0.6706 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8968, "result": 0.6014 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.148, "result": 0.7494 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.7494, "result": 0.7494, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2673, "factor": 0.9145, "pre": 0.7494, "result": 0.6853 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.6853 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1567, "result": 0.8417 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 0.8417 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.8417, "result": 0.842, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.95, "pre": 0.842, "result": 0.7999, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 0.8 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 0.8 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 0.8, "result": 0.8, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 0.8 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7439, "n_duels": 4, "duel_confidence": 0.67, "result": 0.9769 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.026, "result": 1.0023 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 1.0524 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0524 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0822, "result": 1.1389 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9503, "result": 1.0823 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9607, "result": 1.0398 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1507, "result": 1.1905 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.1905, "result": 1.1905, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2673, "factor": 1.147, "pre": 1.1905, "result": 1.3656 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.3656 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1764, "result": 1.5424 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.5424 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.5424, "result": 1.542, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.05, "pre": 1.542, "result": 1.6191, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.619 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.619 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.619, "result": 1.619, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.619 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1567, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1764, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.8, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.619, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.8417, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.5424, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 0.8, "final_away_lambda": 1.619 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 19, "opponent_position": 11, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9127, "attack_index": 0.793, "defense_concede_index": 1.014, "form_multiplier": 0.974, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.14, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.46, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.46 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 11, "opponent_position": 19, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0822, "attack_index": 1.014, "defense_concede_index": 1.185, "form_multiplier": 1.026, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.46, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.7, "team_ppg": 1.46, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Coventry vs Newcastle. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-4-2-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 0.842, Away 1.542). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 0.800, Away 1.619 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 8, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 0.8, "away_lambda": 1.619, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.842, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.542 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-12T13:31:09Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }